Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/09/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
341 PM MDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...FAIRLY STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY
OVER THE REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. COMBINATION OF
FAIRLY TIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING CREATING
STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH
FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM SOUTH OVER THE
AREA...WITH RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AIRMASS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER EASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTY DURING THE PAST HOUR. ACROSS MOUNTAINS...WEB CAMS
INDICATING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF
SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES. MOISTURE TO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING
AS DRIER SUBSIDENT AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE AIRMASS
STABILIZING AND BECOMING DRIER...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOULD COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. LATEST RAP
CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING FOR A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THESE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ONTO THE PLAINS. WITH THE
AIRMASS STABILIZING...WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE THOUGH IT
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES FAR EASTERN PLAINS. SKIES TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BUILD INTO COLORADO WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEAST
AND NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...QG SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LEE
TROUGHING WILL BE GETTING UNDERWAY AS WELL DURING THIS TIME FRAME
LEADING TO WARMER CONDITIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ELEVATING FIRE
DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NOT PLANNING ON HOISTING A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THIS. MODELS STILL WANT TO DRAG AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY...MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH...FLATTENING THE RIDGE
AND INCREASING THE GRADIENT ALOFT OVER COLORADO THURSDAY. ALL OF
THIS SHOULD SERVE TO INCREASE THE WINDS A BIT...COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AND BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION THEN. MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO COVER
COLORADO ON FRIDAY WITH A BIT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.
ALL OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING A DECENT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. AS PER USUAL THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE MASS
AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS BETWEEN THE CANADIAN...EUROPEAN
...DGEX AND GFS TO KEEP THE FORECAST PRETTY BROAD BRUSHED AT THIS
POINT FOR THE WEEKEND. ODDLY ENOUGH THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS
AMONGST THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE PERHAPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A STRONG SHOT
OF UPSLOPE THEREAFTER INTO SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS
EVENTUALLY PAN OUT...EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA
AIRPORTS...A BIT MORE NORTHWEST AT KBJC. GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS
COMMON...MAINLY AT KDEN. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNLIMITED
CEILINGS AS SHOWERS WELL EAST OF DENVER. WINDS TO DECREASE BY 00Z
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT COUNTERCLOCKWISE WITH DRAINAGE PREVAILING BY
04Z. LATEST RAP IS HINTING THE WINDS WILL SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE GOING TO DRAINAGE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLOCKWISE TREND. WINDS TO THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z
TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 KTS. VFR TO CONTINUE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....ET
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
426 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...A STEADY
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH STEADY RAIN WILL END BY
TOMORROW MORNING...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN...ALONG WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ALSO RETURNING BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 426 PM EDT...A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST REGION. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WAS SITUATED NEAR LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY...AND WAS
CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WARM FRONT WAS MOVING NORTHWARD...AS
DEPICTED BY THE 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS OF NEARLY 7 MB OVER THE
NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NY. ANOTHER ORGANIZED
AREA OF RAINFALL WAS NEAR THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT...AIDED BY A
COASTAL FRONT...ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH OF THESE
AREAS OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS A RESULT...LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA BY
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL ACROSS BOTH THE
NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CORNERS OF THE AREA DUE TO TWO
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF RAINFALL. WHILE EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO
SEE SOME RAIN TONIGHT...THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...AND BERKSHIRES. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO
DISCUSSION ON HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR HSA. THE
17Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL BEFORE 2 AM...BEFORE IT
STARTS TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE.
ANOTHER COMPONENT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE OUT OF THE S-SE
AND RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES. THERE ARE SOME STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SURFACE...AS BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW 925 HPA WINDS OF 35-55 KTS
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM. WHILE IT
WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO MIX THESE DOWN CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL...ELEVATED AREAS...SUCH AS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE BETWEEN THE SRN GREENS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...WHERE E-SE FLOW HAS BEEN KNOWN TO CHANNEL
EASILY AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. AT THIS POINT...THERE STILL IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT/COVERAGE OF ANY STRONG
WINDS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY OR HIGH WIND WARNING...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN OUR HWO STATEMENT...AND HAVE COVERED FOR WIND GUSTS
OF 35-40 MPH IN OUR CURRENT FORECAST.
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE NEARING OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST. WE PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE STORM/S
WARM SECTOR AS THE TRIPLE POINT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. STILL...SHOWALTER
VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO...SO AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DUE TO SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE EVENING...AS
TEMPS WET BULB DUE TO THE RAINFALL...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY
WITH A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A
W-SW DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE SFC LOW PASSES
NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. DESPITE BEING
BEHIND THE STORM...COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE MILD ON TUESDAY. TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS TO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND...ESP FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS OF SUN LOOK POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...ALTHOUGH THESE
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.
THE GOOD MIXING /TO ABOUT 800-850 HPA BASED ON THE LATEST 12Z
GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/ WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS...ESP FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. WINDS MAY GUST 25-35 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY STILL
BE RATHER BRISK. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT VALLEY AREAS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S.
ASIDE FROM A MORNING SNOW/RAIN SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...IT LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS FROM
THE PLAINS. IT STILL MAY BE A LITTLE BREEZY DURING DAYTIME MIXING
ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...TEMPS ALOFT
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY /850 HPA TEMPS AROUND -4 TO
-8 DEGREES C/...SO MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 50S
OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
TEMPS ON WED NIGHT...WITH 20S EVERYWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING MOST OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...THE
WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AND REMAIN ALONG OR JUST
NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THE RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL
BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRAILING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIGRATING EASTWARD. DUE
TO THE UPPER JET CURVATURE...SEEMS MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT DOES
OCCUR WILL BE POST-FRONTAL WHILE THE MAIN SUPPORT BECOMES FURTHER
REMOVED. WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT VALUES AND BLEND THE
LATEST MOS VALUES FROM THE ECMWF/GFS.
FRIDAY...
THERE IS A TENDENCY FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EITHER A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY /AS
SUGGESTED BY THE THE GFS/ OR A MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AS SUGGESTED
BY THE ECMWF/GGEM WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DRY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SCENARIO FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE THAT A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION AS A POTENT WAVES DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE NET RESULT WOULD
BE TO SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF SURFACE FEATURES AND ALLOW
WARM ADVECTION TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. AS H850
TEMPS CLIMB TOWARD +10C AND STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WELL INTO THE 40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
APPROACHES. THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN OVERRUNNING THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TAPERING
OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES OVER THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE THE RAIN
DEVELOPS/MOVES IN. INITIALLY DUE TO VISIBILITIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS THEN LOWERING. EVENTUALLY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BY 06Z-08Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT LEAST INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD 18Z/TUESDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST AS THE WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE FLOW IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. WINDS
WILL SHIFT AS AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME GUSTY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO THE KPOU TAF FOR THIS EVENING AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE FLOW IS
RATHER LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
...RH VALUES WILL BE BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TO THE REGION. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MANY HIGH TERRAIN AREAS CONTINUE TO
HAVE A SNOW PACK IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE HIGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT BEHIND THE STORM FOR TOMORROW.
RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. S-SE WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT..ESP ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM...W-NW WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG DURING DAYTIME MIXING
TOMORROW AFTN...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS THAT
CHANNEL WESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE BE GUSTY DURING DAYTIME
MIXING ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DURING THE TIME WHEN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
...RIVER FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WITHIN THESE AREAS...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER LOOK
TO OCCUR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...BASIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO MELT OUT OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF...RESULTING IN SHARP RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS. WITH THE STEADY RAINFALL LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS LIKELY...WITH SOME MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE OR URBAN AREAS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE NERFC CURRENTLY SHOWS SEVERAL RIVERS COMING CLOSE TO BANKFULL BY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IF MORE RAINFALL THAN
ANTICIPATED OCCURS OR IF MORE SNOWMELT HAPPENS...THIS COULD RESULT
IN MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS...SUCH AS THE SACANDAGA RIVER IN
THE ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE HOOSIC...METTAWEE...AND
HOUSATONIC RIVERS. IN ADDITION...SOME RESERVOIRS AND LAKE WILL BE
FILLING UP...AND MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE MID WEEK PERIOD
AT DELTA RESERVOIR ON THE FAR UPPER MOHAWK RIVER.
ALTHOUGH MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE FREE OF ICE...THERE ARE SOME
RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THAT ARE STILL ICE
COVERED. WITH RISING LEVELS DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT...THIS
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED ICE JAM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
RIVERS SHOULD START TO RECEDE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN THE THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
925 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 850 MBS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING THE WEATHER
DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND THE PALM BEACH COUNTY REGION WHERE A
FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE COLLIDE. SO HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE LAKE OKECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH
COUNTY AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE..54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
AVIATION...
ANOTHER DRY DAY EXPECTED AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SE UNITED
STATES COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOWER
CEILINGS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN MORE THAN VCSH. /MOLLEDA
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
ONE MORE DAY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND THEN RAIN CHANCES
BRIEFLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND
SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A MAJOR MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE
ONLY AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOR AN INCREASING WIND
AND VEERING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE
SURFACE TO REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH PWAT AT JUST OVER AN INCH WITH
VERY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IN THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT IS A
STRETCH AND THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY DEVELOPMENT AT ALL
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SO PLAN FOR NOW TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A MAJOR TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES.
THIS WILL AID IN THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT IS LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS ALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL
BE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
CONVERGENCE COULD MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
MOST LIKELY TO BE A THREAT FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 06Z TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON REMAINING IN THE
70S ALONG WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE COOLEST AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL BE
QUITE PLEASANT FOR EARLY APRIL. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RAPIDLY
SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND MODERATING
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE STALLED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING THIS
BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANQUIL THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO OVER 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO
8 FEET BOTH IN THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS
VEER TO THE EAST.
FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON FALLING BELOW 35 PERCENT. THE 20-FOOT WINDS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 15 MPH AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, ERC VALUES HAVE BEEN LOW AND ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 27 THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL
BEAR WATCHING AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE EXCEEDED ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IF CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 74 87 62 / 20 20 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 77 88 66 / 10 20 30 40
MIAMI 84 76 87 66 / 10 20 30 40
NAPLES 84 74 81 65 / 10 20 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
743 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.AVIATION...
ANOTHER DRY DAY EXPECTED AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SE UNITED
STATES COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOWER
CEILINGS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN MORE THAN VCSH. /MOLLEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
ONE MORE DAY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND THEN RAIN CHANCES
BRIEFLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND
SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A MAJOR MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE
ONLY AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOR AN INCREASING WIND
AND VEERING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE
SURFACE TO REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH PWAT AT JUST OVER AN INCH WITH
VERY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IN THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT IS A
STRETCH AND THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY DEVELOPMENT AT ALL
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SO PLAN FOR NOW TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A MAJOR TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES.
THIS WILL AID IN THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT IS LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS ALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL
BE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
CONVERGENCE COULD MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
MOST LIKELY TO BE A THREAT FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 06Z TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON REMAINING IN THE
70S ALONG WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE COOLEST AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL BE
QUITE PLEASANT FOR EARLY APRIL. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RAPIDLY
SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND MODERATING
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE STALLED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING THIS
BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANQUIL THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO OVER 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO
8 FEET BOTH IN THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS
VEER TO THE EAST.
FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON FALLING BELOW 35 PERCENT. THE 20-FOOT WINDS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 15 MPH AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, ERC VALUES HAVE BEEN LOW AND ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 27 THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL
BEAR WATCHING AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE EXCEEDED ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IF CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 74 87 62 / 10 20 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 77 88 66 / 10 20 30 40
MIAMI 84 76 87 66 / 10 20 30 40
NAPLES 84 74 81 65 / 10 10 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
417 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A 110KT H30-H20 JET DIGGING ACRS THE CENTRAL/NRN
ROCKIES HAS FORCED THE SRN BRANCH OF THE H30-H20 JET STREAM ALONG
THE NW GULF COAST TO SHIFT FROM A ZONAL TO TO A LIFTING ORIENTATION
BTWN THE RIO GRANDE/LWR MS VALLEYS. THE SRN JET STREAK WILL FEED THE
DVLPMNT OF A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WHICH IN TURN WILL
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS TO CRANK A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS THE
GOMEX TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA.
UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE NRN JET STREAK IS PLENTIFUL WITH THE 120KT
ISOTACH EXTENDING WELL INTO THE NE PAC. AS THIS ENERGY SPILLS DOWN
ACRS THE PLAINS STATES...THE JET PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY...STRENGTHENING TO A 140-150KT MAX OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIAN OVERNIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE STORM
SYSTEM TO DVLP INTO A RESPECTABLE 990MB LOW AS IT LIFTS ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY DAYBREAK TUE.
WHILE THE 00Z RAOBS INDICATE PWAT VALUES HAVE CLIMBED AOA 1.0" ACRS
THE PENINSULA...MOST OF THIS IS LOCATED ABV H50 AS SUBSTANTIAL DRY
AIR REMAINS IN THE H85-H50 LYR. FURTHERMORE...OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES
LITTLE IF ANY ORGANIZED MID LVL SUPPORT EITHER THE H85-H50 OR THE
H85-H30 VORTICITY/OMEGA FIELDS. LAPSE RATES FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN...REMAINING BLO 6C/KM OVER THE ERN GOMEX BEFORE DEEPENING TO
AOA 7C/KM OVER THE WRN GOMEX.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PULLED BACK SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT/SQUALL LINE INDICATED BY PREVIOUS RUNS...DELAYING IT UNTIL AFT
12Z TUE. THE LCL WRF MODEL DELAYS ONSET OF PRECIP ACRS THE CWA UNTIL
AFT 21Z THIS AFTN...AND EVEN THEN LIMITS IT TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES
ONCE THE SEABREEZE/LAND BREEZE INTERACTION BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE LACK OF MID LVL SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...AS HAS BEEN
MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION...A DENSE FIELD OF MID/UPR LVL
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PRECEDE THE FROPA/SQUALL LINE THAT WILL HAMPER
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.
GIVEN THE ABV PARAMETERS...PRECIP NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTN. FCST WILL BE DRY THRU 21Z...THEN WILL INTRODUCE SLGT CHC OF
TSRAS OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES...CHC SHRAS/SLGT CHC TSRAS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LCL SFC CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY
THE SEABREEZE/LANDBREEZE COUPLET. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSRAS
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT BY THEN
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE HAMPERED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
THE DEEP AND STEADY S/SWRLY FLOW WILL PUSH AFTN TEMPS INTO THE
U80S/L90S W OF I-95...OCEAN MODIFICATION SHOULD KEEP READING IN THE
M80S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED SRLY FLOW
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE U60S/L70S INTERIOR...L/M70S
ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY SRLY WINDS AREAWIDE TODAY WITH FQNT GUSTS
ABV 20MPH....WILL HOIST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY BTWN 15Z-00Z.
TUE/TUE NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST TUE MORNING. A 140 KT JET AT
250 MB WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS FL. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN
850 MB JET OF 45-50 KNOTS AND BAND OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
SUPPORT AN ADVANCING SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH FL S/SW INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT FIRST LIGHT. THIS LINE SHOULD REACH
NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND PUSH
SOUTH OF MARTIN COUNTY EARLY TUE EVE. WHILE WIND FIELDS AND
HELICITY VALUES ARE RESPECTABLE...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...AND RIBBON OF STRONG PVA LAGS LOW
LEVEL JET.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS TUESDAY EXCEPT CHANCE POPS
MARTIN/SAINT LUCIE. GREATEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG...TO PERHAPS DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...HOWEVER THREAT APPEARS
VERY LOW AT BEST. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW ONE INCH...AVERAGING 0.25-0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LESS THAN 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH.
EARLY ONSET OF CLOUDS/PRECIP LIKELY TO LIMIT MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S NORTH. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOUTHERN SECTIONS (SOUTH OF
ORLANDO) COULD REACH THE MID 80S IN ADVANCE OF PRECIP SHIELD.
THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION BEGINS TUE NIGHT AS
FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASS...REACHING 50S ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL FA BY DAYBREAK WED...HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
TREASURE COAST.
WED-SUN...MAINLY DRY INTO LATE WEEK. POST FRONTAL COOL AIRMASS
WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
4 AND HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S FARTHER SOUTH. ONE MORE COOL
NIGHT WED...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.
SEASONABLE WX CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AS A STRONG POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ALLOWING AN ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP. MAX/MIN TEMPS ON THU WILL RECOVER TO WITHIN 5 DEG
OF NORMAL AND HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN
MODERATE TO SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLD COASTAL SHRAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST
JUST YET.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR ALL SITES UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED. BTWN 07/14Z-07/24Z...S/SW SFC
WNDS 15-20KTS WITH G23-28KTS. BTWN 07/20Z-07/24...CIGS BTWN
FL060-080 WITH VCSH ALL SITES. AFT 08/00Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC
IFR TSRAS ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...STORM SYSTEM DVLPG OVER THE LWR MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS
WILL RIDE UP THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W
ATLC...LIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY SUNSET THEN ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
GENERATE A MODERATE TO FRESH SRLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC...WHICH
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SW OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM DRAGS A
COLD FRONT ACRS THE ERN GOMEX...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE FL
STRAITS. THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEAS WITH
DOMINANT PD FALLING TO AOB 6SEC. CHC OF TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE BY LATE
AFTN...CONTG OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE SCA AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL HOLD OFF PULLING THE TRIGGER JUST YET AS THE
FCST SFC PGRAD DOES NOT TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FULL SCA UNTIL
AFT SUNSET THIS EVNG.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. SW FLOW AROUND 20
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND FRONT
DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE 20-25 KNOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT PUSH SE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. SEAS
RANGING FROM 3-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE.
WED-WED NIGHT...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH.
W/NW WINDS 20 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING
AND DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL DIRECTLY OPPOSE THE WARM GULF
STEAM CURRENT AND PRODUCE VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. SEAS 3-5FT
NEARSHORE AND UP TO 7FT OFFSHORE TO START THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO
2-4FT NEARSHORE OVERNIGHT.
THU-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE W ATLANTIC AND GENERATE A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE THU...VEERING TO E BY SUNSET. THIS
ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE A LITTLE STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS...AROUND 15 KNOTS...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE UP TO 5
FT SEAS...3-4 FT ELSEWHERE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH FALLING BELOW 35 PERCENT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WED...WITH
NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMOUNT OF RAIN WETTING
TUE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING BECOMES
NECESSARY. NEAR THRESHOLD MIN RH AGAIN THU AFTERNOON INLAND...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN FRI FAR INLAND...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 84 68 78 57 / 40 50 70 30
MCO 89 69 81 60 / 20 50 70 20
MLB 86 71 86 60 / 30 40 70 30
VRB 86 72 86 63 / 30 40 60 30
LEE 88 68 78 57 / 20 50 80 20
SFB 89 69 81 58 / 20 50 70 20
ORL 89 69 81 60 / 20 50 70 20
FPR 86 73 86 65 / 30 30 50 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FL FROM 11 AM TO 8
PM TODAY.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
ONE MORE DAY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND THEN RAIN CHANCES
BRIEFLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND
SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A MAJOR MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE
ONLY AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOR AN INCREASING WIND
AND VEERING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE
SURFACE TO REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH PWAT AT JUST OVER AN INCH WITH
VERY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IN THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT IS A
STRETCH AND THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY DEVELOPMENT AT ALL
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SO PLAN FOR NOW TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A MAJOR TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES.
THIS WILL AID IN THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT IS LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS ALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL
BE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
CONVERGENCE COULD MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
MOST LIKELY TO BE A THREAT FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 06Z TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON REMAINING IN THE
70S ALONG WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE COOLEST AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL BE
QUITE PLEASANT FOR EARLY APRIL. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RAPIDLY
SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND MODERATING
THE ATMOSHPERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE STALLED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING THIS
BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANQUIL THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO OVER 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO
8 FEET BOTH IN THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS
VEER TO THE EAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON FALLING BELOW 35 PERCENT. THE 20-FOOT WINDS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 15 MPH AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, ERC VALUES HAVE BEEN LOW AND ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 27 THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL
BEAR WATCHING AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE EXCEEDED ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IF CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 74 87 62 / 10 20 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 77 88 66 / 10 20 30 40
MIAMI 84 76 87 66 / 10 20 30 40
NAPLES 84 74 81 65 / 10 10 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
422 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH IN THE FORECAST
AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED THE IN SITU
WEDGE...AND PUSHED THE WEDGE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD. THE
GREATER INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHEAR
IS HIGH. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED H85 WINDS NEAR 45
KNOTS. INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE NAM SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING TO
-1 TO -3 THIS EVENING.
THE STRONG SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ADDED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDGE FRONT NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HELP SUPPORT TORNADOES.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED THE THREAT TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL
ABOUT 700 PM IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
INTO THE LATE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
INSTABILITY LATE SHOULD BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION
AND THE DIURNAL TIMING.
THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 1 INCH. THE SREF
MEAN IS NEAR 1.1 OF AN INCH.
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND CLOUDINESS SHOULD RESULT IN
LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION MAY HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND
20 PERCENT.
WE USED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE SHARP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUPPORTED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS SUPPORT NEAR- NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SOME CIG IMPROVEMENT NOTED...BUT IFR TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIPITATION. RADAR AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND BETTER
CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS APPEARS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE SE FA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HEAVIER CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 09Z TO 12Z. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND A WIND SHIFT TO W OR NW AFTER FROPA...THOUGH MVFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
243 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR COUNTIES OUT OF THE TORNADO WATCH. ROUTINE AFTERNOON
AFD ISSUANCE WITHIN THE HOUR...
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 121 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
UPDATE...
CLEARED ANOTHER COUPLE ROWS OF COUNTIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TORNADO WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA AS THE SHEAR LINE
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. ALTHOUGH THE TOR THREAT IS MINIMAL IN THE
REMAINING WATCH AREA... INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COUPLED WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL WARRANT
PLAYING IT SAFE AND KEEPING COUNTIES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
STRONGER LINE OF STORMS UNTIL THIS LINE PASSES TO THE EAST.
ALSO NOTED ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AL. WILL CONTINUE WATCHING THIS
DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY... AS CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL.
WE ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPS... POPS AND WEATHER WITH THIS
UPDATE. 31/39
UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO WATCH AREA TO REMOVE COUNTIES NO
LONGER IN THE THREAT OF A TORNADO. BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY HAVE
SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH...AND BEST LINE OF CONVECTION STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREATER MACON AREA THIS MORNING. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE OF CONCERN...WITH NUMEROUS GAGES IN THE
ATL METRO AREA RISING TO BANKFULL OR HIGHER. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE LAST 36-HOURS HAVE BEEN 3-3.5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 4 INCHES IN THE FAR WESTERN ATL METRO AND GREATER COLUMBUS
AREAS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE NECESSARY UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS. OVERALL...LINE OF
CONVECTION EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA IS PROGRESSIVELY LOOKING
LESS ROBUST IN OUR CWA. MODELS INDICATING BEST CO-LOCATED SHEAR AND
CAPE WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING IN THAT
AREA...WHICH WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT STILL REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...AND
HAVE NOTICED WEAK ROTATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE ALREADY THIS
MORNING. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE.
31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOME FOR TODAY
BASED ON UPDATED HI-RES GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STILL SOME LINGERING CAPE AND SHEAR. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE BEST SEVERE OR ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT IS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
BAKER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE FIRST PERIOD ON TAP WITH DEEPENING GULF LOW SET TO TRACK
RAPIDLY NEWD WITH AID OF POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGING NEGATIVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY MIDDAY. LINGERING CAD WEDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS NE GA THAT HAS MAINLY SERVED TO STABILIZE THE AREA
AND ALLOW FOR ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. HAVE RECENTLY OBSERVED
DISCRETE CELL TRENDS WITH GOOD ROTATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS IS PROGGED TO BECOME THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. SYSTEM HAS
OVERALL HAD A QUICKER TREND WITH THE MAIN PRECIP EVOLUTION. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS AN INTERESTING SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...BUT THE WRF-NMM
AND HRRR HAVE APPEARED TO VERIFY THE BEST NEAR ONSET SO HAVE TRENDED
POPS CLOSE TO THESE. THIS IN TURN BRINGS A LINE OF EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD MAINLY SOUTH OF ATLANTA
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER 12Z. THE CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY
STRONG WINDS FROM ANY CELLS TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM DOWN FROM THE 50
KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ANY LEADING DISCRETE
CELLS/MERGERS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LINGERING WEDGE FRONT.
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH NEARLY 40 KTS OF 0-1
BULK...AND PROGGED 200-400 0-1 KM HELICITY FOR CENTRAL GA TODAY WITH
OF COURSE HIGHER VALUES IN THE MORE STABLE WEDGED NE PORTION OF THE
STATE. SREF SIG TOR PARAMETER OF 1-2 NOSES UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION TODAY AS WELL. MAIN SEVERE/TOR THREAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LAGRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FLOOD CONCERN CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA BUT THE
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST THOUGH COULD STILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED EFFECTS. PWATS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF LOCAL
CLIMO STILL SUPPORT HIGHLY EFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE AND TRAINING OF
CELLS TODAY WILL RAISE FLASH FLOOD OR AREAL FLOOD CONCERNS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF AREA WILL BRING A COLD POOL ALOFT
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT
THUNDER POTENTIAL MAINLY IN NORTH GA FOR AFTERNOON.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN IN THE NORTH TODAY GIVEN THE RESULT FROM
YESTERDAY AND WEDGE MOISTURE OVERRUN. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
BAKER
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE
RISK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STRONG AS THE COLD
CORE MOVES OVER THE CWA AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
TSTORMS. THE RISK OF THUNDER SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR LOWS...THEN THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BRINGING A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA WILL BE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PRECIP. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
17
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DEGRADING AGAIN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. IMMEDIATE TS CONCERN ONLY FOR
MCN AS MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES INTO SOUTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. BEHIND THIS MAIN AREA...NEW DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. ISOLATED TS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME NOT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SW 19-21Z AND THEN TO THE NW BY 02-04Z. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AT 8-12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW END GUSTS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AGAIN TUESDAY LATE MORNING. SOME CIG
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 57 48 65 45 / 100 60 20 20
ATLANTA 60 47 62 48 / 100 40 20 30
BLAIRSVILLE 54 42 60 41 / 100 40 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 60 45 63 44 / 80 30 30 30
COLUMBUS 68 51 67 48 / 100 40 20 30
GAINESVILLE 53 47 63 47 / 100 50 20 20
MACON 67 53 67 45 / 100 70 20 20
ROME 61 45 64 43 / 60 30 30 50
PEACHTREE CITY 63 46 64 44 / 100 40 20 30
VIDALIA 68 57 68 50 / 100 70 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: EMANUEL...MONTGOMERY...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
WHEELER.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WEBSTER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
216 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH IN THE FORECAST
AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED THE IN SITU
WEDGE...AND PUSHED THE WEDGE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD. THE
GREATER INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHEAR
IS HIGH. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED H85 WINDS NEAR 45
KNOTS. INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE NAM SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING TO
-1 TO -3 THIS EVENING.
THE STRONG SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ADDED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDGE FRONT NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HELP SUPPORT TORNADOES.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED THE THREAT TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL
ABOUT 700 PM IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
INTO THE LATE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
INSTABILITY LATE SHOULD BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION
AND THE DIURNAL TIMING.
THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 1 INCH. THE SREF
MEAN IS NEAR 1.1 OF AN INCH.
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND CLOUDINESS SHOULD RESULT IN
LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION MAY HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND
20 PERCENT.
WE USED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE SHARP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUPPORTED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS SUPPORT NEAR- NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED THE IN SITU
WEDGE...AND PUSHED THE WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH SOME. SOME CIG
IMPROVEMENT NOTED...BUT IFR TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIPITATION. RADAR
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE GREATER INSTABILITY
AND BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE TSRA APPEARS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE
SE FA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
AND RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 09Z TO 12Z. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO W OR NW AFTER FROPA...THOUGH MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS MAY
CONTINUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH IN THE FORECAST
AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED THE IN SITU
WEDGE...AND PUSHED THE WEDGE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD. THE
GREATER INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHEAR
IS HIGH. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED H85 WINDS NEAR 45
KNOTS. INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE NAM SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING TO
-1 TO -3 THIS EVENING.
THE STRONG SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ADDED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDGE FRONT NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HELP SUPPORT TORNADOES.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED THE THREAT TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL
ABOUT 700 PM IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
INTO THE LATE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
INSTABILITY LATE SHOULD BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION
AND THE DIURNAL TIMING.
THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 1 INCH. THE SREF
MEAN IS NEAR 1.1 OF AN INCH.
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND CLOUDINESS SHOULD RESULT IN
LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION MAY HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND
20 PERCENT.
WE USED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE SHARP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUPPORTED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED THE IN SITU
WEDGE...AND PUSHED THE WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH SOME. SOME CIG
IMPROVEMENT NOTED...BUT IFR TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIPITATION. RADAR
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE GREATER INSTABILITY
AND BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE TSRA APPEARS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE
SE FA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
AND RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 09Z TO 12Z. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO W OR NW AFTER FROPA...THOUGH MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS MAY
CONTINUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
148 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 121 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
UPDATE...
CLEARED ANOTHER COUPLE ROWS OF COUNTIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TORNADO WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA AS THE SHEAR LINE
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. ALTHOUGH THE TOR THREAT IS MINIMAL IN THE
REMAINING WATCH AREA... INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COUPLED WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL WARRANT
PLAYING IT SAFE AND KEEPING COUNTIES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
STRONGER LINE OF STORMS UNTIL THIS LINE PASSES TO THE EAST.
ALSO NOTED ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AL. WILL CONTINUE WATCHING THIS
DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY... AS CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL.
WE ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPS... POPS AND WEATHER WITH THIS
UPDATE. 31/39
UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO WATCH AREA TO REMOVE COUNTIES NO
LONGER IN THE THREAT OF A TORNADO. BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY HAVE
SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH...AND BEST LINE OF CONVECTION STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREATER MACON AREA THIS MORNING. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE OF CONCERN...WITH NUMEROUS GAGES IN THE
ATL METRO AREA RISING TO BANKFULL OR HIGHER. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE LAST 36-HOURS HAVE BEEN 3-3.5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 4 INCHES IN THE FAR WESTERN ATL METRO AND GREATER COLUMBUS
AREAS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE NECESSARY UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS. OVERALL...LINE OF
CONVECTION EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA IS PROGRESSIVELY LOOKING
LESS ROBUST IN OUR CWA. MODELS INDICATING BEST CO-LOCATED SHEAR AND
CAPE WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING IN THAT
AREA...WHICH WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT STILL REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...AND
HAVE NOTICED WEAK ROTATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE ALREADY THIS
MORNING. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE.
31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOME FOR TODAY
BASED ON UPDATED HI-RES GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STILL SOME LINGERING CAPE AND SHEAR. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE BEST SEVERE OR ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT IS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
BAKER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE FIRST PERIOD ON TAP WITH DEEPENING GULF LOW SET TO TRACK
RAPIDLY NEWD WITH AID OF POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGING NEGATIVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY MIDDAY. LINGERING CAD WEDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS NE GA THAT HAS MAINLY SERVED TO STABILIZE THE AREA
AND ALLOW FOR ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. HAVE RECENTLY OBSERVED
DISCRETE CELL TRENDS WITH GOOD ROTATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS IS PROGGED TO BECOME THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. SYSTEM HAS
OVERALL HAD A QUICKER TREND WITH THE MAIN PRECIP EVOLUTION. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS AN INTERESTING SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...BUT THE WRF-NMM
AND HRRR HAVE APPEARED TO VERIFY THE BEST NEAR ONSET SO HAVE TRENDED
POPS CLOSE TO THESE. THIS IN TURN BRINGS A LINE OF EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD MAINLY SOUTH OF ATLANTA
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER 12Z. THE CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY
STRONG WINDS FROM ANY CELLS TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM DOWN FROM THE 50
KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ANY LEADING DISCRETE
CELLS/MERGERS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LINGERING WEDGE FRONT.
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH NEARLY 40 KTS OF 0-1
BULK...AND PROGGED 200-400 0-1 KM HELICITY FOR CENTRAL GA TODAY WITH
OF COURSE HIGHER VALUES IN THE MORE STABLE WEDGED NE PORTION OF THE
STATE. SREF SIG TOR PARAMETER OF 1-2 NOSES UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION TODAY AS WELL. MAIN SEVERE/TOR THREAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LAGRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FLOOD CONCERN CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA BUT THE
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST THOUGH COULD STILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED EFFECTS. PWATS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF LOCAL
CLIMO STILL SUPPORT HIGHLY EFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE AND TRAINING OF
CELLS TODAY WILL RAISE FLASH FLOOD OR AREAL FLOOD CONCERNS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF AREA WILL BRING A COLD POOL ALOFT
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT
THUNDER POTENTIAL MAINLY IN NORTH GA FOR AFTERNOON.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN IN THE NORTH TODAY GIVEN THE RESULT FROM
YESTERDAY AND WEDGE MOISTURE OVERRUN. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
BAKER
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE
RISK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STRONG AS THE COLD
CORE MOVES OVER THE CWA AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
TSTORMS. THE RISK OF THUNDER SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR LOWS...THEN THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BRINGING A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA WILL BE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PRECIP. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DEGRADING AGAIN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. IMMEDIATE TS CONCERN ONLY FOR
MCN AS MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES INTO SOUTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. BEHIND THIS MAIN AREA...NEW DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING TO
OCCUR. ISOLATED TS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME NOT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SW 19-21Z AND THEN TO THE NW BY 02-04Z. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AT 8-12KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW END GUSTS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AGAIN TUESDAY LATE MORNING. SOME CIG
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 60 48 65 45 / 100 50 20 20
ATLANTA 63 47 62 48 / 100 20 20 30
BLAIRSVILLE 57 42 60 41 / 100 20 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 63 45 63 44 / 80 20 30 30
COLUMBUS 71 51 67 48 / 100 40 20 30
GAINESVILLE 56 47 63 47 / 100 30 20 20
MACON 70 53 67 45 / 100 70 20 20
ROME 64 45 64 43 / 50 20 30 50
PEACHTREE CITY 66 46 64 44 / 100 20 20 30
VIDALIA 71 57 68 50 / 100 70 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BLECKLEY...DODGE...EMANUEL...JOHNSON...LAURENS...
MONTGOMERY...PULASKI...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...WHEELER...
WILCOX.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WEBSTER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
136 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MILDER
WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. 17Z
SOUNDING IS OFF AND SHOULD BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. SQUALL LINE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
LINE. EXPECT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE WARM FRONT IS NOW LOCATED
INLAND WITH BOTH DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING.
MODIFIED 17Z RAP SOUNDING FOR SAVANNAH HINTS AT MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY FOR EARLY APRIL WITH SBCAPE NEAR 1200 J/KG WITH A
LIFTED INDEX OF -6C. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 50
KT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUGGESTS BOTH THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR IN NATURE...TAKING THE
FORM OF A QLCS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE BULK SHEAR. 0-1KM HELICITIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE RISE TO 200-300 M2/S2 WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. UPSTREAM RADAR SHOWS THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE AS UPSTREAM DYNAMICS SPREAD EAST. THE LINE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ORGANIZE AT IT MOVES EAST...MOVING THROUGH
THE CWFA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 1PM-7PM. SUSPECT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ALSO BEING POSSIBLE.
AS FOR NON-TSTM WINDS...WE ARE STILL WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A NASTY WIND MAX MOVING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING. ITS STILL UNCLEAR IF FREQUENT GUSTS WILL REACH 40 MPH
PRIOR TO THE SQUALL LINE/S ARRIVAL...SO WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.
FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH THE EXPECTED
MOVEMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POPS WERE
MAXED OUT AT 100 PERCENT WITH THE LINE. ELEVATED POPS WILL LINGER
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE WITH MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT ITSELF LATER THIS EVENING. ADDED SEVERE WEATHER
QUALIFIERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES INTO THE GRIDDED AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A SMALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BUT EXPECT LOWER LEVELS MAY BE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY THE
INITIAL CONVECTION AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS.
VERY HIGH PWATS SUGGEST WE WILL SEE SOME BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH A BIT OF TRAINING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT POTENTIALLY CREATING
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND PUSHING
OFFSHORE AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWERING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING
BACK IN FROM THAT DIRECTION WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS EVEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME GRAUPLE WITH THE
SHOWERS AS THE MID-LEVELS RAPIDLY COOL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK TO NEAR 50
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SC COAST TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPLE GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING/WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
COULD TEMPS DOWN NEAR 40 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE CAUSING A SLIGHTLY
WARMER ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WILL BE ON TAP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IMPACTS BOTH KCHS AND
KSAV. EVEN AHEAD OF THIS LINE...A STRONG GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. TIMED THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
NEAR THE TERMINALS AROUND 20Z-21Z...AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. AS RADAR TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL AMEND TAFS WITH MORE CONVECTIVE DETAILS.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND/OR LOWERING CEILINGS. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-END
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR CEILINGS. IN
ADDITION...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 30-40 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. IF
WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AFTER THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION PUSHES
OFFSHORE...SEVERAL HOURS /GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z-09Z/ OF LLWS MAY BE
NEEDED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCE THAT LOW CIGS COULD LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THEY WILL OCCUR
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
BREEZY CONDS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR WED-SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
ADDED A MENTION OF SEA FOG TO THE FORECAST AND ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. ALREADY
SEEING AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST PER
PILOT BOAT AND WEBCAM REPORTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SINCE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SQUALL LINE...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING WATCHED
CAREFULLY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GIVEN MARINE STABILITY
FACTORS AND LATEST TRENDS FROM SURFACE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHT
OBSERVATIONS. A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE
SPEEDS ONLY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT.
SEAS BUILDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
OUR OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BY MID MORNING TODAY. TONIGHT...STRONGEST
FLOW OVER WARMER WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SEAS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM AT 6-7 FT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PLAY
HAVOC WITH WINDS AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
FOR MOST WATERS DURING THIS TIME. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP
LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
125 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
STRENGTHENED THE IN SITU WEDGE...AND PUSHED THE WARM FRONT BACK TO
THE SOUTH SOME. THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCE OF
SEVERE TSRA APPEARS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE SE FA THIS AFTERNOON.
SHEAR IS HIGH. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED H85 WINDS
NEAR 45 KNOTS. INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS
AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE NAM SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING
TO ABOUT -1 THIS AFTERNOON AND -2 TO -4 THIS EVENING.
THE STRONG SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ADDED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MAY
HELP SUPPORT TORNADOES.
THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE 12Z HRRR INDICATED THE MAIN TIME
FROM ABOUT 300 PM TO 700 PM AND IN THE EAST AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
INTO THE LATE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
INSTABILITY LATE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 1 INCH. THE SREF
MEAN IS NEAR 1.1 OF AN INCH. WE ARE FORECASTING 1 TO 1.5 OF AN INCH.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HIGH BECAUSE OF THE RECENT DRY SPELL SO
THE RISK OF FLOODING IS NOT HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME MINOR
POSITION AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN MAINLY ZONAL ALLOWING A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THE HIGH WILL CROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OFF THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND...THUS ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED THE IN SITU
WEDGE...AND PUSHED THE WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH SOME. SOME CIG
IMPROVEMENT NOTED...BUT IFR TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIPITATION. RADAR
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE GREATER INSTABILITY
AND BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE TSRA APPEARS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE
SE FA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
AND RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 09Z TO 12Z. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A WIND
SHIFT TO W OR NW AFTER FROPA...THOUGH MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS MAY
CONTINUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
121 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
CLEARED ANOTHER COUPLE ROWS OF COUNTIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TORNADO WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA AS THE SHEAR LINE
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. ALTHOUGH THE TOR THREAT IS MINIMAL IN THE
REMAINING WATCH AREA... INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COUPLED WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL WARRANT
PLAYING IT SAFE AND KEEPING COUNTIES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
STRONGER LINE OF STORMS UNTIL THIS LINE PASSES TO THE EAST.
ALSO NOTED ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AL. WILL CONTINUE WATCHING THIS
DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY... AS CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL.
WE ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPS... POPS AND WEATHER WITH THIS
UPDATE. 31/39
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1139 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO WATCH AREA TO REMOVE COUNTIES NO
LONGER IN THE THREAT OF A TORNADO. BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY HAVE
SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH...AND BEST LINE OF CONVECTION STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREATER MACON AREA THIS MORNING. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE OF CONCERN...WITH NUMEROUS GAGES IN THE
ATL METRO AREA RISING TO BANKFULL OR HIGHER. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE LAST 36-HOURS HAVE BEEN 3-3.5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 4 INCHES IN THE FAR WESTERN ATL METRO AND GREATER COLUMBUS
AREAS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE NECESSARY UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS. OVERALL...LINE OF
CONVECTION EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA IS PROGRESSIVELY LOOKING
LESS ROBUST IN OUR CWA. MODELS INDICATING BEST CO-LOCATED SHEAR AND
CAPE WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING IN THAT
AREA...WHICH WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT STILL REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...AND
HAVE NOTICED WEAK ROTATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE ALREADY THIS
MORNING. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOME FOR TODAY
BASED ON UPDATED HI-RES GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STILL SOME LINGERING CAPE AND SHEAR. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE BEST SEVERE OR ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT IS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
BAKER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE FIRST PERIOD ON TAP WITH DEEPENING GULF LOW SET TO TRACK
RAPIDLY NEWD WITH AID OF POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGING NEGATIVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY MIDDAY. LINGERING CAD WEDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS NE GA THAT HAS MAINLY SERVED TO STABILIZE THE AREA
AND ALLOW FOR ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. HAVE RECENTLY OBSERVED
DISCRETE CELL TRENDS WITH GOOD ROTATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS IS PROGGED TO BECOME THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. SYSTEM HAS
OVERALL HAD A QUICKER TREND WITH THE MAIN PRECIP EVOLUTION. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS AN INTERESTING SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...BUT THE WRF-NMM
AND HRRR HAVE APPEARED TO VERIFY THE BEST NEAR ONSET SO HAVE TRENDED
POPS CLOSE TO THESE. THIS IN TURN BRINGS A LINE OF EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD MAINLY SOUTH OF ATLANTA
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER 12Z. THE CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY
STRONG WINDS FROM ANY CELLS TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM DOWN FROM THE 50
KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ANY LEADING DISCRETE
CELLS/MERGERS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LINGERING WEDGE FRONT.
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH NEARLY 40 KTS OF 0-1
BULK...AND PROGGED 200-400 0-1 KM HELICITY FOR CENTRAL GA TODAY WITH
OF COURSE HIGHER VALUES IN THE MORE STABLE WEDGED NE PORTION OF THE
STATE. SREF SIG TOR PARAMETER OF 1-2 NOSES UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION TODAY AS WELL. MAIN SEVERE/TOR THREAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LAGRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FLOOD CONCERN CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA BUT THE
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST THOUGH COULD STILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED EFFECTS. PWATS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF LOCAL
CLIMO STILL SUPPORT HIGHLY EFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE AND TRAINING OF
CELLS TODAY WILL RAISE FLASH FLOOD OR AREAL FLOOD CONCERNS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF AREA WILL BRING A COLD POOL ALOFT
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT
THUNDER POTENTIAL MAINLY IN NORTH GA FOR AFTERNOON.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN IN THE NORTH TODAY GIVEN THE RESULT FROM
YESTERDAY AND WEDGE MOISTURE OVERRUN. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
BAKER
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE
RISK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STRONG AS THE COLD
CORE MOVES OVER THE CWA AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
TSTORMS. THE RISK OF THUNDER SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR LOWS...THEN THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BRINGING A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA WILL BE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PRECIP. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
17
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY LOW END IFR TO NEAR LIFR CIGS FOR MOST SITES THIS MORNING
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IMPROVEMENT AFTER NEAR 18Z. AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVING EAST WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR KCSG AND KMCN THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VSBYS WITH AREA OF
PRECIP BUT COULD BE LOWER WITH STORMS. WINDS INITIALLY NE BEHIND
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP FOR NORTHERN SITES THEN SWING MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A SW SHIFT FOR KATL AROUND
15-16Z. SHOWERS DIMINISHING SOME FROM NW AFTER 18-20Z THOUGH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR NEAR 08Z TUESDAY MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON CIG AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 60 48 65 45 / 100 50 20 20
ATLANTA 63 47 62 48 / 100 20 20 30
BLAIRSVILLE 57 42 60 41 / 100 20 20 30
CARTERSVILLE 63 45 63 44 / 80 20 30 30
COLUMBUS 71 51 67 48 / 100 40 20 30
GAINESVILLE 56 47 63 47 / 100 30 20 20
MACON 70 53 67 45 / 100 70 20 20
ROME 64 45 64 43 / 50 20 30 50
PEACHTREE CITY 66 46 64 44 / 100 20 20 30
VIDALIA 71 57 68 50 / 100 70 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BLECKLEY...DODGE...EMANUEL...JOHNSON...LAURENS...
MONTGOMERY...PULASKI...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...WHEELER...
WILCOX.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WEBSTER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1232 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MILDER
WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. 17Z
SOUNDING IS OFF AND SHOULD BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. SQUALL LINE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
LINE. EXPECT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE WARM FRONT IS NOW LOCATED
INLAND WITH BOTH DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING.
MODIFIED 17Z RAP SOUNDING FOR SAVANNAH HINTS AT MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY FOR EARLY APRIL WITH SBCAPE NEAR 1200 J/KG WITH A
LIFTED INDEX OF -6C. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 50
KT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUGGESTS BOTH THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR IN NATURE...TAKING THE
FORM OF A QLCS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE BULK SHEAR. 0-1KM HELICITIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE RISE TO 200-300 M2/S2 WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. UPSTREAM RADAR SHOWS THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE AS UPSTREAM DYNAMICS SPREAD EAST. THE LINE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ORGANIZE AT IT MOVES EAST...MOVING THROUGH
THE CWFA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 1PM-7PM. SUSPECT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ALSO BEING POSSIBLE.
AS FOR NON-TSTM WINDS...WE ARE STILL WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A NASTY WIND MAX MOVING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING. ITS STILL UNCLEAR IF FREQUENT GUSTS WILL REACH 40 MPH
PRIOR TO THE SQUALL LINE/S ARRIVAL...SO WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.
FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH THE EXPECTED
MOVEMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POPS WERE
MAXED OUT AT 100 PERCENT WITH THE LINE. ELEVATED POPS WILL LINGER
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE WITH MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT ITSELF LATER THIS EVENING. ADDED SEVERE WEATHER
QUALIFIERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES INTO THE GRIDDED AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A SMALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BUT EXPECT LOWER LEVELS MAY BE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY THE
INITIAL CONVECTION AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS.
VERY HIGH PWATS SUGGEST WE WILL SEE SOME BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH A BIT OF TRAINING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT POTENTIALLY CREATING
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND PUSHING
OFFSHORE AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWERING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING
BACK IN FROM THAT DIRECTION WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS EVEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME GRAUPLE WITH THE
SHOWERS AS THE MID-LEVELS RAPIDLY COOL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK TO NEAR 50
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SC COAST TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPLE GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING/WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
COULD TEMPS DOWN NEAR 40 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE CAUSING A SLIGHTLY
WARMER ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WILL BE ON TAP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LOW CHANCE THAT LOW CIGS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THEY
WILL OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BREEZY CONDS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR WED-SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
ADDED A MENTION OF SEA FOG TO THE FORECAST AND ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. ALREADY
SEEING AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST PER
PILOT BOAT AND WEBCAM REPORTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SINCE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SQUALL LINE...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING WATCHED
CAREFULLY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GIVEN MARINE STABILITY
FACTORS AND LATEST TRENDS FROM SURFACE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHT
OBSERVATIONS. A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE
SPEEDS ONLY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT.
SEAS BUILDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
OUR OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BY MID MORNING TODAY. TONIGHT...STRONGEST
FLOW OVER WARMER WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SEAS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM AT 6-7 FT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PLAY
HAVOC WITH WINDS AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
FOR MOST WATERS DURING THIS TIME. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP
LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1139 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO WATCH AREA TO REMOVE COUNTIES NO
LONGER IN THE THREAT OF A TORNADO. BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY HAVE
SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH...AND BEST LINE OF CONVECTION STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREATER MACON AREA THIS MORNING. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE OF CONCERN...WITH NUMEROUS GAGES IN THE
ATL METRO AREA RISING TO BANKFULL OR HIGHER. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE LAST 36-HOURS HAVE BEEN 3-3.5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 4 INCHES IN THE FAR WESTERN ATL METRO AND GREATER COLUMBUS
AREAS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE NECESSARY UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS. OVERALL...LINE OF
CONVECTION EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA IS PROGRESSIVELY LOOKING
LESS ROBUST IN OUR CWA. MODELS INDICATING BEST CO-LOCATED SHEAR AND
CAPE WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING IN THAT
AREA...WHICH WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT STILL REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...AND
HAVE NOTICED WEAK ROTATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE ALREADY THIS
MORNING. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOME FOR TODAY
BASED ON UPDATED HI-RES GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STILL SOME LINGERING CAPE AND SHEAR. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE BEST SEVERE OR ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT IS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
BAKER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE FIRST PERIOD ON TAP WITH DEEPENING GULF LOW SET TO TRACK
RAPIDLY NEWD WITH AID OF POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGING NEGATIVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY MIDDAY. LINGERING CAD WEDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS NE GA THAT HAS MAINLY SERVED TO STABILIZE THE AREA
AND ALLOW FOR ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. HAVE RECENTLY OBSERVED
DISCRETE CELL TRENDS WITH GOOD ROTATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS IS PROGGED TO BECOME THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. SYSTEM HAS
OVERALL HAD A QUICKER TREND WITH THE MAIN PRECIP EVOLUTION. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS AN INTERESTING SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...BUT THE WRF-NMM
AND HRRR HAVE APPEARED TO VERIFY THE BEST NEAR ONSET SO HAVE TRENDED
POPS CLOSE TO THESE. THIS IN TURN BRINGS A LINE OF EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD MAINLY SOUTH OF ATLANTA
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER 12Z. THE CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY
STRONG WINDS FROM ANY CELLS TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM DOWN FROM THE 50
KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ANY LEADING DISCRETE
CELLS/MERGERS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LINGERING WEDGE FRONT.
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH NEARLY 40 KTS OF 0-1
BULK...AND PROGGED 200-400 0-1 KM HELICITY FOR CENTRAL GA TODAY WITH
OF COURSE HIGHER VALUES IN THE MORE STABLE WEDGED NE PORTION OF THE
STATE. SREF SIG TOR PARAMETER OF 1-2 NOSES UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION TODAY AS WELL. MAIN SEVERE/TOR THREAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LAGRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FLOOD CONCERN CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA BUT THE
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST THOUGH COULD STILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED EFFECTS. PWATS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF LOCAL
CLIMO STILL SUPPORT HIGHLY EFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE AND TRAINING OF
CELLS TODAY WILL RAISE FLASH FLOOD OR AREAL FLOOD CONCERNS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF AREA WILL BRING A COLD POOL ALOFT
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT
THUNDER POTENTIAL MAINLY IN NORTH GA FOR AFTERNOON.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN IN THE NORTH TODAY GIVEN THE RESULT FROM
YESTERDAY AND WEDGE MOISTURE OVERRUN. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
BAKER
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE
RISK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STRONG AS THE COLD
CORE MOVES OVER THE CWA AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
TSTORMS. THE RISK OF THUNDER SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR LOWS...THEN THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BRINGING A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA WILL BE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PRECIP. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
17
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY LOW END IFR TO NEAR LIFR CIGS FOR MOST SITES THIS MORNING
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IMPROVEMENT AFTER NEAR 18Z. AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVING EAST WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR KCSG AND KMCN THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VSBYS WITH AREA OF
PRECIP BUT COULD BE LOWER WITH STORMS. WINDS INITIALLY NE BEHIND
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP FOR NORTHERN SITES THEN SWING MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A SW SHIFT FOR KATL AROUND
15-16Z. SHOWERS DIMINISHING SOME FROM NW AFTER 18-20Z THOUGH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR NEAR 08Z TUESDAY MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON CIG AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 48 67 45 / 100 50 20 40
ATLANTA 68 48 65 48 / 100 40 40 50
BLAIRSVILLE 60 42 62 42 / 100 40 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 66 45 64 45 / 80 40 40 50
COLUMBUS 71 50 67 46 / 100 40 20 40
GAINESVILLE 61 47 64 48 / 100 40 40 50
MACON 72 51 69 45 / 100 50 20 40
ROME 66 44 65 45 / 60 20 40 50
PEACHTREE CITY 69 46 66 42 / 100 40 30 40
VIDALIA 76 57 70 51 / 100 70 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...
TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WEBSTER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED FORM NEAR MACON NORTHEASTWARD TO AROUND
ORANGEBURG AT 1100 AM. THE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI LINE. THE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
SHEAR IS HIGH. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED H85 WINDS
NEAR 45 KNOTS. INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS
AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE NAM SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING
TO ABOUT -1 THIS AFTERNOON AND -2 TO -4 THIS EVENING.
THE STRONG SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ADDED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MAY
HELP SUPPORT TORNADOES.
THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE 12Z HRRR INDICATED THE MAIN TIME
FROM ABOUT 300 PM TO 700 PM AND IN THE EAST AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
INTO THE LATE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
INSTABILITY LATE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 1 INCH. THE SREF
MEAN IS NEAR 1.1 OF AN INCH. WE ARE FORECASTING 1 TO 1.5 OF AN INCH.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HIGH BECAUSE OF THE RECENT DRY SPELL SO
THE RISK OF FLOODING IS NOT HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME MINOR
POSITION AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN MAINLY ZONAL ALLOWING A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THE HIGH WILL CROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OFF THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND...THUS ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
(FA) JUST NORTH OF OGB. IT WILL TRY TO SHIFT NORTH TODAY...BUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMING IN FROM THE WEST MAY IMPEDE
ITS PROGRESS. THIS MAKES SURFACE WINDS A DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM. IT APPEARS THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL
RULE FOR MOST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. SOME OF THE TSRA COULD POSSIBLY BE SEVERE.
HEAVIER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 09Z TO 12Z. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND A WIND SHIFT TO W OR NW AFTER FROPA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1016 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MILDER
WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SPECIAL 17Z SOUNDING WILL BE CONDUCTED TO BETTER GAGE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE WARM FRONT IS NOW LOCATED
INLAND WITH BOTH DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING.
MODIFIED 17Z RAP SOUNDING FOR SAVANNAH HINTS AT MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY FOR EARLY APRIL WITH SBCAPE NEAR 1200 J/KG WITH A
LIFTED INDEX OF -6C. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 50
KT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUGGESTS BOTH THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR IN NATURE...TAKING THE
FORM OF A QLCS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE BULK SHEAR. 0-1KM HELICITIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE RISE TO 200-300 M2/S2 WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. UPSTREAM RADAR SHOWS THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE AS UPSTREAM DYNAMICS SPREAD EAST. THE LINE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ORGANIZE AT IT MOVES EAST...MOVING THROUGH
THE CWFA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 1PM-7PM. SUSPECT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ALSO BEING POSSIBLE.
AS FOR NON-TSTM WINDS...WE ARE STILL WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A NASTY WIND MAX MOVING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING. ITS STILL UNCLEAR IF FREQUENT GUSTS WILL REACH 40 MPH
PRIOR TO THE SQUALL LINE/S ARRIVAL...SO WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.
FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH THE EXPECTED
MOVEMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POPS WERE
MAXED OUT AT 100 PERCENT WITH THE LINE. ELEVATED POPS WILL LINGER
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE WITH MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT ITSELF LATER THIS EVENING. ADDED SEVERE WEATHER
QUALIFIERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES INTO THE GRIDDED AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A SMALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BUT EXPECT LOWER LEVELS MAY BE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY THE
INITIAL CONVECTION AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS.
VERY HIGH PWATS SUGGEST WE WILL SEE SOME BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH A BIT OF TRAINING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT POTENTIALLY CREATING
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS.
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND PUSHING
OFFSHORE AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWERING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING
BACK IN FROM THAT DIRECTION WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS EVEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME GRAUPLE WITH THE
SHOWERS AS THE MID-LEVELS RAPIDLY COOL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK TO NEAR 50
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SC COAST TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPLE GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING/WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
COULD TEMPS DOWN NEAR 40 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE CAUSING A SLIGHTLY
WARMER ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WILL BE ON TAP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLWS WAS A BIT MARGINAL TO INCLUDE TO TAFS BUT THERE STILL BE A WINDOW
FOR SOME DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IF WARM FRONT IS 1-2 HOURS SLOWER
TO CLEAR THE TERMINALS. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH
VEERING AND INCREASING SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MAKE A RUN
FOR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR FROM 19Z-20Z TO AROUND DUSK. WE HAVE INCLUDED
TSRA AS THE WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
SOMEWHAT DEEPER CONVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE LINE IS ORGANIZED. MAINTAINED
NON-CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN BETTER MIXING LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. IF TEMPS GET WARMER AT KCHS...WE COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KT
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
TONIGHT. CIGS MVFR WITH IFR AT TIMES. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LOW CHANCE THAT LOW CIGS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THEY
WILL OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BREEZY CONDS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR WED-SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
ADDED A MENTION OF SEA FOG TO THE FORECAST AND ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. ALREADY
SEEING AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST PER
PILOT BOAT AND WEBCAM REPORTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SINCE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SQUALL LINE...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING WATCHED
CAREFULLY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GIVEN MARINE STABILITY
FACTORS AND LATEST TRENDS FROM SURFACE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHT
OBSERVATIONS. A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE
SPEEDS ONLY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT.
SEAS BUILDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
OUR OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BY MID MORNING TODAY. TONIGHT...STRONGEST
FLOW OVER WARMER WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SEAS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM AT 6-7 FT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PLAY
HAVOC WITH WINDS AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
FOR MOST WATERS DURING THIS TIME. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP
LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
751 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOME FOR TODAY
BASED ON UPDATED HI-RES GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STILL SOME LINGERING CAPE AND SHEAR. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE BEST SEVERE OR ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT IS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
BAKER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE FIRST PERIOD ON TAP WITH DEEPENING GULF LOW SET TO TRACK
RAPIDLY NEWD WITH AID OF POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGING NEGATIVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY MIDDAY. LINGERING CAD WEDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS NE GA THAT HAS MAINLY SERVED TO STABILIZE THE AREA
AND ALLOW FOR ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. HAVE RECENTLY OBSERVED
DISCRETE CELL TRENDS WITH GOOD ROTATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS IS PROGGED TO BECOME THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. SYSTEM HAS
OVERALL HAD A QUICKER TREND WITH THE MAIN PRECIP EVOLUTION. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS AN INTERESTING SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...BUT THE WRF-NMM
AND HRRR HAVE APPEARED TO VERIFY THE BEST NEAR ONSET SO HAVE TRENDED
POPS CLOSE TO THESE. THIS IN TURN BRINGS A LINE OF EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD MAINLY SOUTH OF ATLANTA
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER 12Z. THE CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY
STRONG WINDS FROM ANY CELLS TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM DOWN FROM THE 50
KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ANY LEADING DISCRETE
CELLS/MERGERS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LINGERING WEDGE FRONT.
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH NEARLY 40 KTS OF 0-1
BULK...AND PROGGED 200-400 0-1 KM HELICITY FOR CENTRAL GA TODAY WITH
OF COURSE HIGHER VALUES IN THE MORE STABLE WEDGED NE PORTION OF THE
STATE. SREF SIG TOR PARAMETER OF 1-2 NOSES UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION TODAY AS WELL. MAIN SEVERE/TOR THREAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LAGRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FLOOD CONCERN CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA BUT THE
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST THOUGH COULD STILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED EFFECTS. PWATS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF LOCAL
CLIMO STILL SUPPORT HIGHLY EFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE AND TRAINING OF
CELLS TODAY WILL RAISE FLASH FLOOD OR AREAL FLOOD CONCERNS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF AREA WILL BRING A COLD POOL ALOFT
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT
THUNDER POTENTIAL MAINLY IN NORTH GA FOR AFTERNOON.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN IN THE NORTH TODAY GIVEN THE RESULT FROM
YESTERDAY AND WEDGE MOISTURE OVERRUN. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
BAKER
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE
RISK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STRONG AS THE COLD
CORE MOVES OVER THE CWA AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
TSTORMS. THE RISK OF THUNDER SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR LOWS...THEN THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BRINGING A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA WILL BE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PRECIP. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY LOW END IFR TO NEAR LIFR CIGS FOR MOST SITES THIS MORNING
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IMPROVEMENT AFTER NEAR 18Z. AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVING EAST WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR KCSG AND KMCN THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VSBYS WITH AREA OF
PRECIP BUT COULD BE LOWER WITH STORMS. WINDS INITIALLY NE BEHIND
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP FOR NORTHERN SITES THEN SWING MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A SW SHIFT FOR KATL AROUND
15-16Z. SHOWERS DIMINISHING SOME FROM NW AFTER 18-20Z THOUGH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR NEAR 08Z TUESDAY MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON CIG AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 48 67 45 / 100 50 20 40
ATLANTA 68 48 65 48 / 100 40 40 50
BLAIRSVILLE 60 42 62 42 / 100 40 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 66 45 64 45 / 100 40 40 50
COLUMBUS 71 50 67 46 / 100 40 20 40
GAINESVILLE 61 47 64 48 / 100 40 40 50
MACON 72 51 69 45 / 100 50 20 40
ROME 66 44 65 45 / 100 20 40 50
PEACHTREE CITY 69 46 66 42 / 100 40 30 40
VIDALIA 76 57 70 51 / 100 70 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WEBSTER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
749 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARING MID MORNING...RAPIDLY VEERING/INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD BUT THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN A TAD BIT FAST TO THIS POINT BUT WARM FROPA SHOULD OCCUR ALL AREAS
BY LATE MORNING.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE EASTERN
PROGRESSION OF A ROBUST SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. QUITE A FEW FACTORS POINT TOWARD POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY.
WE HAVE BECOME GRADUALLY MORE IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FIRST OFF
THIS MORNING...WE THINK MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE.
BY LATE MORNING SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A POTENT SW LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTS WARM AND MOISTURE
AIR NE AHEAD OF A STEADILY BACKING UPPER FLOW.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BROKEN TO SOLID LINEAR
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FROM EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE FUELED BY STRONG UPPER FORCING AND IMPRESSIVE
MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP LAYERED CIN WHICH IS PROGGED TO ERODE AS
THE DYNAMIC WARM SECTOR EVOLVES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS INCLUDE RAPID MODEST DESTABILIZATION SEEN ON
MANY OF THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...0-4 KM BULK SHEAR REACHING
50 KT LATE DAY AND VERY FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE LINE. WE ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED IF TRENDS ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND
ARW-EAST PERSIST. WE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORNING SOUNDING ANALYSIS
BEFORE COMMITTING TO SEVERE WORDING IN OUR ACTUAL FORECAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS AFTER LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO
LIFT AND BECOME BROKEN...THE WARM SECTOR MAY BECOME CLEAN ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS...ESPECIALLY IN SE GEORGIA WHERE
THE LATEST RAP MODEL PROG HINTS AT SB CAPES POSSIBLY IN THE 1500
J/KG RANGE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO DAMAGING WINDS BUT
THERE IS PLENTY OF SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON TAKING
SHAPE PRIOR TO ANY CONVECTIVE RAINS. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH ON AREA BRIDGES. TOO MANY POTENTIAL
COMPLEXITIES TO ISSUE A LOCALIZED WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT
CANNOT RULE STRONGER GUSTS IF IT GETS WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED.
TONIGHT...A SMALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BUT EXPECT LOWER LEVELS MAY BE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY THE
INITIAL CONVECTION AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS.
VERY HIGH PWATS SUGGEST WE WILL SEE SOME BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH A BIT OF TRAINING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT POTENTIALLY CREATING
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND PUSHING OFFSHORE
AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING BACK IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS EVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL WITH THE SHOWERS
AS THE MID-LEVELS RAPIDLY COOL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK TO NEAR 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SC COAST TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPEL GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING/WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
COULD TEMPS DOWN NEAR 40 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE CAUSING A SLIGHTLY
WARMER ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WILL BE ON TAP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLWS WAS A BIT MARGINAL TO INCLUDE TO TAFS BUT THERE STILL BE A WINDOW
FOR SOME DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IF WARM FRONT IS 1-2 HOURS SLOWER
TO CLEAR THE TERMINALS. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH
VEERING AND INCREASING SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MAKE A RUN
FOR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR FROM 19Z-20Z TO AROUND DUSK. WE HAVE INCLUDED
TSRA AS THE WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
SOMEWHAT DEEPER CONVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE LINE IS ORGANIZED. MAINTAINED
NON-CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN BETTER MIXING LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. IF TEMPS GET WARMER AT KCHS...WE COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KT
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
TONIGHT. CIGS MVFR WITH IFR AT TIMES. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LOW CHANCE THAT LOW CIGS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THEY
WILL OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BREEZY CONDS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR WED-SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GIVEN MARINE STABILITY FACTORS
AND LATEST TRENDS FROM SURFACE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHT OBSERVATIONS.
A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE SPEEDS ONLY
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT. SEAS
BUILDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN OUR
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BY MID MORNING TODAY. TONIGHT...STRONGEST
FLOW OVER WARMER WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SEAS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM AT 6-7 FT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PLAY
HAVOC WITH WINDS AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
FOR MOST WATERS DURING THIS TIME. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP
LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
547 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE FIRST PERIOD ON TAP WITH DEEPENING GULF LOW SET TO TRACK
RAPIDLY NEWD WITH AID OF POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGING NEGATIVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY MIDDAY. LINGERING CAD WEDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS NE GA THAT HAS MAINLY SERVED TO STABILIZE THE AREA
AND ALLOW FOR ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. HAVE RECENTLY OBSERVED
DISCRETE CELL TRENDS WITH GOOD ROTATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS IS PROGGED TO BECOME THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. SYSTEM HAS
OVERALL HAD A QUICKER TREND WITH THE MAIN PRECIP EVOLUTION. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS AN INTERESTING SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...BUT THE WRF-NMM
AND HRRR HAVE APPEARED TO VERIFY THE BEST NEAR ONSET SO HAVE TRENDED
POPS CLOSE TO THESE. THIS IN TURN BRINGS A LINE OF EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD MAINLY SOUTH OF ATLANTA
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER 12Z. THE CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY
STRONG WINDS FROM ANY CELLS TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM DOWN FROM THE 50
KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ANY LEADING DISCRETE
CELLS/MERGERS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LINGERING WEDGE FRONT.
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH NEARLY 40 KTS OF 0-1
BULK...AND PROGGED 200-400 0-1 KM HELICITY FOR CENTRAL GA TODAY WITH
OF COURSE HIGHER VALUES IN THE MORE STABLE WEDGED NE PORTION OF THE
STATE. SREF SIG TOR PARAMETER OF 1-2 NOSES UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION TODAY AS WELL. MAIN SEVERE/TOR THREAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LAGRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FLOOD CONCERN CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA BUT THE
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST THOUGH COULD STILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED EFFECTS. PWATS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF LOCAL
CLIMO STILL SUPPORT HIGHLY EFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE AND TRAINING OF
CELLS TODAY WILL RAISE FLASH FLOOD OR AREAL FLOOD CONCERNS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF AREA WILL BRING A COLD POOL ALOFT
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT
THUNDER POTENTIAL MAINLY IN NORTH GA FOR AFTERNOON.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN IN THE NORTH TODAY GIVEN THE RESULT FROM
YESTERDAY AND WEDGE MOISTURE OVERRUN. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
BAKER
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE
RISK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STRONG AS THE COLD
CORE MOVES OVER THE CWA AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
TSTORMS. THE RISK OF THUNDER SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR LOWS...THEN THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BRINGING A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA WILL BE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PRECIP. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INITIAL IFR TO NEAR LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH SOME MVFR IMPROVEMENT AFTER ABOUT 18Z-20Z. RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH MVFR VSBYS CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z-
22Z ALSO WITH BEST -TSRA CHANCES NEAR THE 15Z-19Z PERIOD SO HAVE
KEPT PROB30 GROUP. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS.
OTHERWISE ENHANCED WINDS OUT OF EAST TO SE 12-14 KTS GUSTING 20-25
KTS SWINGING SW NEAR KATL AFTER ABOUT 18Z. POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AGAIN
NEAR END OF FORECAST PERIOD BUT STILL DECENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON CIGS...VSBYS...AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.
BAKER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 48 67 45 / 100 50 20 40
ATLANTA 68 48 65 48 / 100 40 40 50
BLAIRSVILLE 60 42 62 42 / 100 40 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 66 45 64 45 / 100 40 40 50
COLUMBUS 71 50 67 46 / 100 40 20 40
GAINESVILLE 61 47 64 48 / 100 40 40 50
MACON 72 51 69 45 / 100 50 20 40
ROME 66 44 65 45 / 100 20 40 50
PEACHTREE CITY 69 46 66 42 / 100 40 30 40
VIDALIA 76 57 70 51 / 100 70 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WEBSTER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHARLESTON SC
444 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL IN A WEAK WEDGED PATTERN WITH
SIGNS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA
STARTING TO LIFT NORTH. EXTENSIVE STRATUS CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF
MAINLY LIGHT FOG BLANKETING THE REGION PER LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN AND
THERE IS A WINDOW FOR SOME DENSE FOG INLAND FROM I-95 BUT WE WERE
COVERING WITH ENHANCED AREAS OF FOG AT THIS TIME.
NEARING DAYBREAK...RAPIDLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS WILL BEGIN
TO TRANSLATE THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD BUT WE BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY
JUST A TAD BIT FAST PRIOR TO MID MORNING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
BASED STABILITY NOTED ON LATEST MESOANALYSIS.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE EASTERN
PROGRESSION OF A ROBUST SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. QUITE A FEW FACTORS POINT TOWARD POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY.
WE HAVE BECOME GRADUALLY MORE IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FIRST OFF
THIS MORNING...WE THINK MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE.
BY LATE MORNING SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A POTENT SW LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTS WARM AND MOISTURE
AIR NE AHEAD OF A STEADILY BACKING UPPER FLOW.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BROKEN TO SOLID LINEAR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE PATTERN MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE FUELED BY STRONG UPPER FORCING AND IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DEEP LAYERED CIN WHICH IS PROGGED TO ERODE AS THE DYNAMIC
WARM SECTOR EVOLVES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS
INCLUDE RAPID STABILIZATION SEEN ON MANY OF THE MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...0-4 KM BULK SHEAR REACHING 50 KT LATE DAY AND VERY
FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE. WE
ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IF TRENDS ON
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND ARW-EAST PERSIST. WE WILL
WAIT UNTIL MORNING SOUNDING ANALYSIS BEFORE COMMITTING TO SEVERE
WORDING IN OUR ACTUAL FORECAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS AFTER LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO
LIFT AND BECOME BROKEN...THE WARM SECTOR MAY BECOME CLEAN ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS...ESPECIALLY IN SE GEORGIA
WHERE THE LATEST RAP MODEL PROG HINTS AT SB CAPES POSSIBLY IN THE
1500 J/KG RANGE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO DAMAGING WINDS
BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON TAKING
SHAPE PRIOR TO ANY CONVECTIVE RAINS. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH ON AREA BRIDGES. TOO MANY POTENTIAL
COMPLEXITIES TO ISSUE A LOCALIZED WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT
CANNOT RULE STRONGER GUSTS IF IT GETS WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED.
TONIGHT...A SMALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BUT EXPECT LOWER LEVELS MAY BE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY THE
INITIAL CONVECTION AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS.
VERY HIGH PWATS SUGGEST WE WILL SEE SOME BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH A BIT OF TRAINING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT POTENTIALLY CREATING
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND PUSHING OFFSHORE
AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING BACK IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS EVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL WITH THE SHOWERS
AS THE MID-LEVELS RAPIDLY COOL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK TO NEAR 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SC COAST TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPEL GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING/WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
COULD TEMPS DOWN NEAR 40 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE CAUSING A SLIGHTLY
WARMER ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WILL BE ON TAP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING INCLUSIONS OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET RAPIDLY BUILDS NEAR DAYBREAK.
IFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BUILDS OVER A STABLE AND COOLER SURFACE
LAYER. WE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH STRATUS BUILDING DOWN AND
POTENTIALLY SOME FOG AT KSAV LATER TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
SHIFT TO THE N ALLOWING WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO INTERACT
WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AT
KCHS FROM 17Z-20Z. LATEST MODELS SHIFT CONVECTIVE PCPN INTO THE
COASTAL CORRIDOR BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. LEADING EDGE CONVECTION MAY
LOCALLY PRODUCE LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FINAL 6 HOURS OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...LATER SHIFT CAN REFINE TIMING WINDOWS
AND TAF INCLUSIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LOW CHANCE THAT LOW CIGS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THEY
WILL OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BREEZY CONDS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR WED-SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GIVEN MARINE STABILITY FACTORS
AND LATEST TRENDS FROM SURFACE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHT OBSERVATIONS.
A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE SPEEDS ONLY
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT. SEAS
BUILDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN OUR
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BY MID MORNING TODAY. TONIGHT...STRONGEST
FLOW OVER WARMER WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SEAS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM AT 6-7 FT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PLAY
HAVOC WITH WINDS AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
FOR MOST WATERS DURING THIS TIME. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP
LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
442 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL IN A WEAK WEDGED PATTERN WITH
SIGNS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA
STARTING TO LIFT NORTH. EXTENSIVE STRATUS CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF
MAINLY LIGHT FOG BLANKETING THE REGION PER LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... THE STRATUS CONTINUED TO BUILD DOWN AND
THERE IS A WINDOW FOR SOME DENSE FOG INLAND FROM I-95 BUT WE WERE
COVERING WITH ENHANCED AREAS OF FOG AT THIS TIME.
NEARING DAYBREAK...RAPIDLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS WILL BEGIN
TO TRANSLATE THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD BUT WE BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY
JUST A TAD BIT FAST PRIOR TO MID MORNING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
BASED STABILITY NOTED ON LATEST MESOANALYSIS.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE EASTERN
PROGRESSION OF A ROBUST SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. QUITE A FEW FACTORS POINT TOWARD POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY.
WE HAVE BECOME GRADUALLY MORE IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FIRST OFF
THIS MORNING...WE THINK MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE.
BY LATE MORNING SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A POTENT SW LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTS WARM AND MOISTURE
AIR NE AHEAD OF A STEADILY BACKING UPPER FLOW.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BROKEN TO SOLID LINEAR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE PATTERN MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST FROM EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL
BE FUELED BY STRONG UPPER FORCING AND IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP LAYERED CIN WHICH IS PROGGED TO ERODE AS
THE DYNAMIC WARM SECTOR EVOLVES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS INCLUDE RAPID STABILIZATION SEEN ON MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...0-4 KM BULK SHEAR REACHING 50 KT LATE
DAY AND FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE.
WE ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IF TRENDS
ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND ARW-EAST PERSIST. WE
WILL WAIT UNTIL MORNING SOUNDING ANALYSIS BEFORE COMMITTING TO
SEVERE WORDING IN OUR ACTUAL FORECAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS AFTER LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO
LIFT AND BECOME BROKEN...THE WARM SECTOR MAY BECOME CLEAN ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS...ESPECIALLY IN SE GEORGIA
WHERE THE LATEST RAP MODEL PROG HINTS AT SB CAPES POSSIBLY IN THE
1500 J/KG RANGE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO DAMAGING WINDS
BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON TAKING
SHAPE PRIOR TO ANY CONVECTIVE RAINS. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH ON AREA BRIDGES. TOO MANY POTENTIAL
COMPLEXITIES TO ISSUE A LOCALIZED WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT
CANNOT RULE STRONGER GUSTS IF IT GETS WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED.
TONIGHT...A SMALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BUT EXPECT LOWER LEVELS MAY BE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY THE
INITIAL CONVECTION AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS.
VERY HIGH PWATS SUGGEST WE WILL SEE SOME BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH A BIT OF TRAINING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT POTENTIALLY CREATING
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND PUSHING OFFSHORE
AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING BACK IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS EVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL WITH THE SHOWERS
AS THE MID-LEVELS RAPIDLY COOL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK TO NEAR 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SC COAST TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPEL GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING/WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
COULD TEMPS DOWN NEAR 40 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE CAUSING A SLIGHTLY
WARMER ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WILL BE ON TAP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING INCLUSIONS OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET RAPIDLY BUILDS NEAR DAYBREAK.
IFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BUILDS OVER A STABLE AND COOLER SURFACE
LAYER. WE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH STRATUS BUILDING DOWN AND
POTENTIALLY SOME FOG AT KSAV LATER TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
SHIFT TO THE N ALLOWING WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO INTERACT
WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AT
KCHS FROM 17Z-20Z. LATEST MODELS SHIFT CONVECTIVE PCPN INTO THE
COASTAL CORRIDOR BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. LEADING EDGE CONVECTION MAY
LOCALLY PRODUCE LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FINAL 6 HOURS OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...LATER SHIFT CAN REFINE TIMING WINDOWS
AND TAF INCLUSIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LOW CHANCE THAT LOW CIGS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THEY
WILL OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BREEZY CONDS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR WED-SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GIVEN MARINE STABILITY FACTORS
AND LATEST TRENDS FROM SURFACE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHT OBSERVATIONS.
A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE SPEEDS ONLY
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT. SEAS
BUILDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN OUR
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BY MID MORNING TODAY. TONIGHT...STRONGEST
FLOW OVER WARMER WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SEAS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM AT 6-7 FT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PLAY
HAVOC WITH WINDS AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
FOR MOST WATERS DURING THIS TIME. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP
LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
140 PM MDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMALS.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING QPF REMAINING MAINLY CONFINED THROUGH
NORTHERN ZONES AND ALONG WYOMING BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BETTER INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY PER NAM THAN THIS
WEEKEND THUS HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER TO
THE GRIDS. SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
700MB WINDS IN THE 30KT RANGE. HAVE KEPT SURFACE WINDS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE. BOTH NAM AND GFS KEEP
A FEW POCKETS OF VERY WEAK QPF GOING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE COMPROMISED WITH WEAK POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DMH
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP PAC NW UNDER INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT UPPER TROUGH WITH THE CUTOFF PORTION
STAYING WELL TO THE SOUTH. A MINOR WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE RESULTING PRECIP...BUT WINDS AND CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT. THE MAIN PUNCH WILL COME ON SATURDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WA/OR COAST. THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL
DROP ALONG THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER SYSTEM...MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. THE 12Z ECMWF DROPS THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER WEST OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND THEREFORE SHOWS A MORE EXPANSIVE QPF FIELD OVER
THE STATE. IF WE START SEEING THE GFS TRENDING IN THAT
DIRECTION...WE MAY START RAMPING UP POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HINSBERGER
&&
.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGING AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER IDAHO FALLS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INCLUDE SHOWERS IN TAF.
HINSBERGER
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
321 PM MDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT MON APR 7 2014
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WITH ITS VERY
COLD 500MB TEMPS (-26C TO -29C) ALONG WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO AROUND 60 PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
DIE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SOME CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DECREASING INTO THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
ON TUESDAY UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO MIGRATE TOWARD OUR AREA. UNDER THE
RIDGE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING PRODUCE SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
THUS A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT MON APR 7 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. DUE TO A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A WIND
SHIFT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE.
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA DURING LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE
MID LEVEL WINDS IN THE 750-600MB RANGE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DUE
TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE BREEZY WINDS WILL DECLINE AS TEMPERATURES COOL
AND MIXING ENDS. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL HAVE A COUPLE WINDOWS
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST CHANCE WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DURING THE
EVENING FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP WITH IN THE RAIN SHOWERS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL BE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP. WILL START LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. PRECIP. WILL BECOME MORE WIDE SPREAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING THE PRECIP. WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
PRECIP. WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE COMING
TO AN END BEHIND THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS.
SUNDAY NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER
THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.
MONDAY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
AREA BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT MON APR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. CUMULUS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES
REACH AND EXCEED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SCATTERED WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OVER KMCK
RATHER THAN KGLD. THE HRRR HAS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING OVER
KGLD WITH THE BETTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER KMCK.
THEREFORE...WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP OF TSRA FOR KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON AND A PREVAILING GROUP OF TSRA FOR KMCK; CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
DECREASES AND VORTICITY MOVES EAST OF THE TERMINALS. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KTS AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND
5 TO 10 KTS OVER KGLD AND 10 TO 15 KTS OVER KMCK. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT MON APR 7 2014
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA WEST OF A BURLINGTON TO ST. FRANCIS AND BENKELMAN LINE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT ACROSS THE SAME AREA CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
RAPID FIRE GROWTH. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG
THE WINDS WILL BECOME DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
013-027-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252-253.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DDT
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...ALW
FIRE WEATHER...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1127 AM MDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT MON APR 7 2014
AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA RANGED
FROM OVERCAST FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED AND IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WERE FROM THE
NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA...HEADING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS. A LOW LEVEL JET OF WINDS WAS STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...EASTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO.
FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE WINDS AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LOW LEVEL JET OF WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME MIXING WILL LEAD TO A THOROUGHLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PRECISELY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET OF WINDS IS PRESENTLY
DEVELOPING. FORECAST GUIDANCE WAS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH RESPECT
TO THE JET BUT THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DO NOT THINK
THAT THE WIND ADVISORY WILL MEET ON THE GUSTS BUT INSTEAD THE 3 HOUR
SUSTAINED CRITERIA OF 30 MPH OR GREATER. EPA/NWS DUST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A FEW SMALL PLUMES OF DUST DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS COMPLICATES THIS
SCENARIO AND LEADS TO SOME DOUBT THAT BLOWING DUST WILL BE OBSERVED.
OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR THE TIME BEING BUT MAY NEED TO BE INSERTED
IF BLOWING DUST BECOMES VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE OF 500
J/KG...LIFTED INDEX READINGS OF -1 TO -3 AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8 C/KM WOULD INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. THESE READINGS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT
WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES COMPLETELY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE CONCERNING FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LEE TROUGH SHOULD
BE CENTERED AROUND THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. THERE IS A WEAKNESS
IN THE WINDS APPARENT WHERE THE LEE TROUGH IS CENTERED. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS ALL
HINGES ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LEE TROUGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO AMOUNT
TO A WIND SHIFT...INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT
SHOULD REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON APR 7 2014
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HAVE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THURSDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE AREA WILL COME NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR SATURDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE PLAINS. THE
SECOND TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
MAIN UPPER AND MID LEVEL JET SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET AND VORTICITY VALUES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WOULD INDICATE CHANCES FOR POTENTIAL LIFT AND
INSTABILITY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPARK THUNDERSTORMS WITH GOOD CAPE
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL THETA E VALUES. CURRENT MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES STRONGEST STORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE MORE
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT SOME SORT OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...A COLD SURGE OF AIR ALOFT COULD BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION TYPE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY
CONDITIONS FOR MANY CENTRAL AND EASTERN FORECAST LOCATIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TO
THE GROUND. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ONCE LIFT SUPPORT MOVES EASTWARD
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT MON APR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. CUMULUS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES
REACH AND EXCEED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SCATTERED WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OVER KMCK
RATHER THAN KGLD. THE HRRR HAS A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING OVER
KGLD WITH THE BETTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER KMCK.
THEREFORE...WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP OF TSRA FOR KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON AND A PREVAILING GROUP OF TSRA FOR KMCK; CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
DECREASES AND VORTICITY MOVES EAST OF THE TERMINALS. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KTS AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND
5 TO 10 KTS OVER KGLD AND 10 TO 15 KTS OVER KMCK. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
013-027-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
232 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2014
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
A -28c to -30c 500mb upper level trough, which was located over
eastern Montana earlier this morning, will quickly move southeast
and by 18z begin to cross western Kansas. Mid level instability will
improved during the afternoon as this upper level disturbance
crosses western Kansas and based on the expected moisture forecast
in the 850mb to 600mb level between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday
there will be a chance for a rain showers and even an a few
thunderstorms. Main hazard should any thunder develop will be
cloud to ground lightning.
Gusty northwest winds can also be expected today as 30kt to 40kt
winds located in the 900mb to 850mb level mixdown to the surface,
mainly west of highway 283. Base on these expected winds mixing
down to the surface it appears the surface winds will increase to
near wind advisory criteria. Some locations may even reach 30mph
for a few hours between 18z and 21z. Based highs today on the
mixed layer depth which will be at or slightly above the 800mb
level. This supports highs today in the upper 50s to lower 60s for
all but west central Kansas. from Garden City and areas west and
northwest increasing clouds due to the approaching upper level
trough and cooler 850mb to 700mb temperatures suggest highs will
be mainly in the mid 50s.
Wind speeds will decrease and back more to the west after sunset
and skies will clear. Based on a westerly flow of near 10kts will
trend towards slightly higher overnight lows than what the latest
guidance suggests.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
Medium range models indicate an amplified upper level ridge of high
pressure breaking down as it moves across the Intermountain West
into the Western High Plains mid week resulting in drier conditions
across western Kansas through at least Wednesday night. Meanwhile,
an upper level shortwave trough is projected to push ashore into the
Pacific Northwest Wednesday and move quickly across the Northern
Rockies into the Northern Plains late Wednesday night. An
attendant cold front is forecast to push southeastward through
western Kansas sometime Thursday. However, a dry frontal passage
is expected due to a real lack of moisture in the low/mid levels
as indicated by GFS/ECMWF model soundings.
Temperatures will be near normal Tuesday as upper level ridging
begins to edge eastward into the Western High Plains. Although
surface high pressure across the Rockies will help influence a
north-northwesterly flow across western Kansas through much of
the day, some downsloping will help warm temperatures across the
area. The GFS/ECMWF show H85 temperatures climbing from the day
previous with values of around 10C across central Kansas to near
15C along the Colorado border. With plenty of sunshine likely,
look for highs well up into the 60s(F) Tuesday afternoon with near
70F possible in far southwest Kansas. A developing lee side trough
across eastern Colorado Tuesday night will quickly flip winds back
to the south-southwest Wednesday, tapping into a warmer air mass to
our south and bringing H85 temperatures in excess of 20C into all
of southwest Kansas and portions of central Kansas. Widespread
80s(F) are likely Wednesday afternoon as lower level lapse rates
steepen. The warming trend comes to an end Thursday as a cold front
pushes through western Kansas dropping temperatures back down to
near seasonal levels.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
Radar trends supporting the latest HRRR in weakening an area of
light rain showers as they cross western Kansas earlier this
evening. This precipitation was associated with an area of low
level forcing near a surface boundary which at 03z appears to
extend from north east central Nebraska into the panhandle of
Texas. Light north wind immediately behind this boundary will
increase into the 15 to 20kt range between 12z and 15z. North to
northwest winds will then continue to increase through the early
afternoon with sustained winds of near 25kts likely between 18z
Monday and 00z Tuesday. NAM BUFR soundings indicating VFR
conditions tonight and Monday. Mid level instability will improve
after 18z as a -28c 500mb trough crosses western Kansas. Moisture
in the 3000ft to 8000ft AGL can be expected under this cool pool
so an increase in low VFR ceilings will be likely Monday
afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 33 70 41 / 30 10 0 0
GCK 58 32 71 39 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 57 34 71 41 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 59 34 71 39 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 61 35 68 40 / 40 10 0 0
P28 65 35 68 40 / 40 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
158 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2014
...Updated short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
A -28c to -30c 500mb upper level trough, which was located over
eastern Montana earlier this morning, will quickly move southeast
and by 18z begin to cross western Kansas. Mid level instability will
improved during the afternoon as this upper level disturbance
crosses western Kansas and based on the expected moisture forecast
in the 850mb to 600mb level between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday
there will be a chance for a rain showers and even an a few
thunderstorms. Main hazard should any thunder develop will be
cloud to ground lightning.
Gusty northwest winds can also be expected today as 30kt to 40kt
winds located in the 900mb to 850mb level mixdown to the surface,
mainly west of highway 283. Base on these expected winds mixing
down to the surface it appears the surface winds will increase to
near wind advisory criteria. Some locations may even reach 30mph
for a few hours between 18z and 21z. Based highs today on the
mixed layer depth which will be at or slightly above the 800mb
level. This supports highs today in the upper 50s to lower 60s for
all but west central Kansas. from Garden City and areas west and
northwest increasing clouds due to the approaching upper level
trough and cooler 850mb to 700mb temperatures suggest highs will
be mainly in the mid 50s.
Wind speeds will decrease and back more to the west after sunset
and skies will clear. Based on a westerly flow of near 10kts will
trend towards slightly higher overnight lows than what the latest
guidance suggests.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
Monday night/Tuesday:
Showers/isolated thunderstorms are not expected after 00Z as this activity
will be diurnally driven. For Tuesday, northerly upper level flow is
expected in the wake of passing synoptic trof. At the surface, a light
downslope northwesterly wind is expected. The GFS is the coldest of
the solutions, but given the aforementioned downslope flow and associated
mixing to about 700 hPa... feel that maximum temperatures around 70F
seem reasonable (ergo, the GFS is too cold). The official forecast is
close to ECE guidance. Minimum rh`s and winds do not look close to red
flag criteria. Minimums will be around 40F as winds eventually veer
southerly by evening as weak lee troughing develops across the western
High Plains.
Wednesday and beyond:
Wednesday is expected to be a toasty day a lee troughing continues and
an 850 hPa warm plume advects farther east across the forecast area
of responsibility. The NAM is coming around to the ECMWF solution for
sfc temperatures, and therefore have maximum values in the 80sF. Models
are showing ideal conditions for a warm day with downslope southwesterly
winds and 850 hPa temperatures in the 20sC. Rh`s will be lower, but
winds do not look to be at criteria for 3 hours at this time... still
something to watch as there could be elevated fire wx conditions during
Wednesday afternoon.
Beyond Wednesday, fairly warm Spring-like temperatures are expected.
Attention then turns to next weekend as the next synoptic wave approaches
from the west. This system will have moisture to work with as sfc dewpoints
increase ahead in the warm sector. The ECMWF shows a wintry mix possible
(mainly across NW Kansas with todays deterministic run), but this is
something to watch. Since this is way out in the extended, will keep with
thunderstorms in the warm sector and then showers post-frontal. The
GFS is not nearly as cold as the EC solution.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
Radar trends supporting the latest HRRR in weakening an area of
light rain showers as they cross western Kansas earlier this
evening. This precipitation was associated with an area of low
level forcing near a surface boundary which at 03z appears to
extend from north east central Nebraska into the panhandle of
Texas. Light north wind immediately behind this boundary will
increase into the 15 to 20kt range between 12z and 15z. North to
northwest winds will then continue to increase through the early
afternoon with sustained winds of near 25kts likely between 18z
Monday and 00z Tuesday. NAM BUFR soundings indicating VFR
conditions tonight and Monday. Mid level instability will improve
after 18z as a -28c 500mb trough crosses western Kansas. Moisture
in the 3000ft to 8000ft AGL can be expected under this cool pool
so an increase in low VFR ceilings will be likely Monday
afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 32 70 41 / 20 10 0 0
GCK 59 31 71 39 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 57 33 71 41 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 59 33 71 39 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 61 34 70 40 / 20 10 0 0
P28 65 34 70 40 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1210 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2014
...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
At 00z Monday an upper level ridge axis was located along the west
coast with a +100kt 250mb jet streak extending from the top of
this ridge axis in northern British Columbia to central Montana. A
-28C to -30C 500mb thermal trough was located in the left exit
region of this upper level jet. Further downstream a 500mb trough
was located from the Texas panhandle into Nebraska. A surface and
850mb trough, area of confluent flow and moisture, extended from
southeast Colorado into south central Nebraska. This related well
with an area of enhanced precipitation and even a few lightning
strikes earlier this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
The main forecast challenges are slight chances for rain showers
tonight, then again on Monday afternoon, and strong winds with a
cold front on Monday.
The upper low and trough that brought areas of light rain to much of
southwest Kansas this morning will continue to move south and east
of the area tonight. Some light rain showers may redevelop later
this afternoon before ending this evening ahead of a cold front and
trough line.
Another upper level wave on the backside of the upper trough will
move across western Kansas on Monday bringing another chance for
some light rain showers, but much of the moisture will remain over
parts of south central Kansas with the best chances for measurable
rainfall from Wakeeney to Coldwater and east. Models forecast only
minimal instability so widespread thunder is not expected. An
associated cold front will move across western Kansas late tonight
with winds shifting from light and variable to the northwest at 10
to 20 mph. Winds pickup by late morning into the afternoon on Monday
to 25 to 35 mph and gusty as deeper mixing ensues in back of the
cold front. These winds will be close to wind advisory criteria. As
the shortwave moves east into south central Kansas in the afternoon,
skies will clear from west to east in back of this wave.
Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 30s, with slightly warmer
lows in parts of south central Kansas in the low to mid 40s. Highs
on Monday look to be in the upper 50s to around 60.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
Monday night/Tuesday:
Showers/isolated thunderstorms are not expected after 00Z as this activity
will be diurnally driven. For Tuesday, northerly upper level flow is
expected in the wake of passing synoptic trof. At the surface, a light
downslope northwesterly wind is expected. The GFS is the coldest of
the solutions, but given the aforementioned downslope flow and associated
mixing to about 700 hPa... feel that maximum temperatures around 70F
seem reasonable (ergo, the GFS is too cold). The official forecast is
close to ECE guidance. Minimum rh`s and winds do not look close to red
flag criteria. Minimums will be around 40F as winds eventually veer
southerly by evening as weak lee troughing develops across the western
High Plains.
Wednesday and beyond:
Wednesday is expected to be a toasty day a lee troughing continues and
an 850 hPa warm plume advects farther east across the forecast area
of responsibility. The NAM is coming around to the ECMWF solution for
sfc temperatures, and therefore have maximum values in the 80sF. Models
are showing ideal conditions for a warm day with downslope southwesterly
winds and 850 hPa temperatures in the 20sC. Rh`s will be lower, but
winds do not look to be at criteria for 3 hours at this time... still
something to watch as there could be elevated fire wx conditions during
Wednesday afternoon.
Beyond Wednesday, fairly warm Spring-like temperatures are expected.
Attention then turns to next weekend as the next synoptic wave approaches
from the west. This system will have moisture to work with as sfc dewpoints
increase ahead in the warm sector. The ECMWF shows a wintry mix possible
(mainly across NW Kansas with todays deterministic run), but this is
something to watch. Since this is way out in the extended, will keep with
thunderstorms in the warm sector and then showers post-frontal. The
GFS is not nearly as cold as the EC solution.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
Radar trends supporting the latest HRRR in weakening an area of
light rain showers as they cross western Kansas earlier this
evening. This precipitation was associated with an area of low
level forcing near a surface boundary which at 03z appears to
extend from north east central Nebraska into the panhandle of
Texas. Light north wind immediately behind this boundary will
increase into the 15 to 20kt range between 12z and 15z. North to
northwest winds will then continue to increase through the early
afternoon with sustained winds of near 25kts likely between 18z
Monday and 00z Tuesday. NAM BUFR soundings indicating VFR
conditions tonight and Monday. Mid level instability will improve
after 18z as a -28c 500mb trough crosses western Kansas. Moisture
in the 3000ft to 8000ft AGL can be expected under this cool pool
so an increase in low VFR ceilings will be likely Monday
afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 70 41 84 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 30 71 39 81 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 33 71 41 82 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 31 71 39 84 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 33 70 40 82 / 10 0 0 0
P28 35 70 40 84 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1103 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT IN THE WEST FOR A PERSISTENT...
MORE SOLID BAND THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
BASED ON CURRENT HOURLY TRENDS. MAIN EFFECT WAS A LOWER TEMP IN THE
NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST...BY A COUPLE DEGREES OR SO. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED ATTM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 831 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO REFLECT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THIS
SURFACE FEATURE IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN
ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LEX RECENTLY
REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM AND THERE HAS BEEN A REPORT OR TWO OF SOME
SMALL HAIL...OR GRAUPEL OUT OF SOME OF THE STORMS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER OVERALL RADAR TREND ARE SHOWING A GRADUAL BUT
DEFINITE WEAKENING IN THE ECHOS. SO WHILE AN ISOLD RUMBLE CAN NOT BE
RULE OUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE THREAT WILL BE LARGE OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE
THUNDER IN OUR SOUTHWEST AND TO FRESHEN UP THE WORDING JUST A BIT.
OTHERWISE UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT AND BLEND CURRENT OBS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO DECENT SFC BASED HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE OCCASIONAL
STRIKES WE CONTINUE TO PICK UP WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO
THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE TO
INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...VERY EARLY
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO
AREAS WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...IN PULASKI/WAYNE AND SHOULD DIE
OFF WITH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MID LEVEL TROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED
OUT QUITE WELL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A FEW PLACES GETTING
CLOSE TO 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON
PRECIPITATION AS IT TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. NAM SEEMS
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE ON GENERATING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS AND
THE AMBIENT DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...NOT CONFIDENT THE NAM HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN HOW LOW DEWPOINTS
HAVE GONE IN THE PAST WEEK ON DRY AFTERNOONS...OPTING TO KEEP THINGS
WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...BRINGING IN SOME NEAR 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES LINGERING INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...A COOLER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WHERE SOME FROST WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
A MORE ZONAL LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. AMPLIFICATION
WILL THEN ENSUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND WORKS ITS WAY EAST. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...AND THEN LARGER DIFFERENCES CROP
UP WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A
BLEND...ALTHOUGH DID FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF THE HIGHER
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPER SYSTEM...SINCE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED THIS WAY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL REIGN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AT TIMES. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA...SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE LATEST
BLEND AND THE INHERITED POPS...WITH THE OVERALL BETTER CHANCES
NORTH...AND LESS TO THE SOUTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
IN PLACE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. DEEP TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST BY
MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE NOTED SLOWER TREND...WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 831 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
DIURNAL HEATING HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. KLEX RECENTLY REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM AND THERE HAS
BEEN A REPORT OR TWO OF SOME SMALL HAIL...OR GRAUPEL OUT OF SOME OF
THE STORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER OVERALL RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHOWING A GRADUAL BUT DEFINITE WEAKENING IN THE ECHOS. SO WHILE AN
ISOLD RUMBLE CAN NOT BE RULE OUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE THREAT WILL BE
LARGE OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
QUITE PESSIMISTIC SUGGESTING SOME MVFR CIGS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
WHILE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND TO KEEP A CIG IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING CIGS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH MORE OPTIMISTIC
VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WE MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR CIGS AT TIMES AT
THE MORE ELEVATED TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
WEST...NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS/RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
831 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO REFLECT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THIS
SURFACE FEATURE IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN
ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LEX RECENTLY
REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM AND THERE HAS BEEN A REPORT OR TWO OF SOME
SMALL HAIL...OR GRAUPEL OUT OF SOME OF THE STORMS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER OVERALL RADAR TREND ARE SHOWING A GRADUAL BUT
DEFINITE WEAKENING IN THE ECHOS. SO WHILE AN ISOLD RUMBLE CAN NOT BE
RULE OUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE THREAT WILL BE LARGE OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE
THUNDER IN OUR SOUTHWEST AND TO FRESHEN UP THE WORDING JUST A BIT.
OTHERWISE UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT AND BLEND CURRENT OBS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO DECENT SFC BASED HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE OCCASIONAL
STRIKES WE CONTINUE TO PICK UP WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO
THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE TO
INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...VERY EARLY
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO
AREAS WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...IN PULASKI/WAYNE AND SHOULD DIE
OFF WITH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MID LEVEL TROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED
OUT QUITE WELL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A FEW PLACES GETTING
CLOSE TO 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON
PRECIPITATION AS IT TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. NAM SEEMS
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE ON GENERATING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS AND
THE AMBIENT DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...NOT CONFIDENT THE NAM HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN HOW LOW DEWPOINTS
HAVE GONE IN THE PAST WEEK ON DRY AFTERNOONS...OPTING TO KEEP THINGS
WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...BRINGING IN SOME NEAR 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES LINGERING INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...A COOLER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WHERE SOME FROST WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
A MORE ZONAL LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. AMPLIFICATION
WILL THEN ENSUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND WORKS ITS WAY EAST. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...AND THEN LARGER DIFFERENCES CROP
UP WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A
BLEND...ALTHOUGH DID FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF THE HIGHER
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPER SYSTEM...SINCE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED THIS WAY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL REIGN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AT TIMES. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA...SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE LATEST
BLEND AND THE INHERITED POPS...WITH THE OVERALL BETTER CHANCES
NORTH...AND LESS TO THE SOUTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
IN PLACE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. DEEP TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST BY
MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE NOTED SLOWER TREND...WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 831 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
DIURNAL HEATING HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. KLEX RECENTLY REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM AND THERE HAS
BEEN A REPORT OR TWO OF SOME SMALL HAIL...OR GRAUPEL OUT OF SOME OF
THE STORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER OVERALL RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHOWING A GRADUAL BUT DEFINITE WEAKENING IN THE ECHOS. SO WHILE AN
ISOLD RUMBLE CAN NOT BE RULE OUT DO NOT BELIEVE THE THREAT WILL BE
LARGE OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
QUITE PESSIMISTIC SUGGESTING SOME MVFR CIGS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
WHILE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL TEND TO KEEP A CIG IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING CIGS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH MORE OPTIMISTIC
VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WE MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR CIGS AT TIMES AT
THE MORE ELEVATED TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
WEST...NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS/RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
207 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
ALL REMAINS QUIET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IS NOW ON TOP OF
NASHVILLE...STRETCHING NORTH TO JUST WEST OF LOUISVILLE.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...KEEPING
EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE RECOVERING WELL INTO THE 60S
PRESENTLY. THIS HAS FINALLY GENERATED ABOUT 100J/KG OF SBCAPE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM...IT
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS MORE LIKE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE MAKES IT INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SEVERE THREAT WITH LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
SOME BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. FIRST
OFF...DOWNSLOPING HAS ALL BUT ERODED ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA...SO WILL DROP POPS ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR AND LATEST
RAP IS ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA. AND SPEAKING OF THE HRRR...THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS...WILL BRINGING IN A
PERIOD OF BETTER POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION
REMAINS IS HOW QUICKLY WE CAN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
IMMENSE CLOUD COVER STILL OVER THE AREA. IF WE CAN WARM SUFFICIENTLY
TODAY...WE COULD GET TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY. WITH TREMENDOUS SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...THIS WOULD
CREATE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. ALREADY
OBSERVING SOME SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...AND SAFE TO
SAY ANY SUNSHINE TODAY WILL SIGNIFICANTLY BOOST OUR SEVERE CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS TOSSED ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO A SLIGHT
RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE
TREMENDOUS SHEAR PROFILES...DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL COME
TO AN END BY 8 PM AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST.
EVEN WITHOUT SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL HAVE NEARLY 50 KNOTS OF WIND IN
THE MIXED LAYER. EVEN MIXING DOWN A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THIS WIND
WOULD YIELD WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THUS...GOING TO TOSS UP A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FINALLY...DROPPED POPS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS LACKING TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. WE COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE VERY LOW.
NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL COME IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. REMOVED THUNDER FROM THIS PERIOD
WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
A COMPLEX 24 HOURS IS IN STORE...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN TN CONTINUES ON ITS PATH NE INTO
CENTRAL KY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 6Z THIS EVENING. EAST TO SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE TRANSITION TO STRONG WSW WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...STEERING A SHIELD OF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY
THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION...WINDS...AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING THE DAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO KY...ECMWF
SHOWS A STRONG 250/300MB JET MAX THAT WILL SET UP FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS CENTRAL KY...MAXIMIZING AS THE LOW EJECTS TO THE NE BETWEEN 6
AND 12Z TONIGHT. THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE WINDS WILL REACH A VERY
IMPRESSIVE 160KTS BY 12Z...WITH STRONG WINDS FELT ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO THE MID LEVELS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL WORK
TO MIX SOME OF THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...CREATING THE THREAT
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY. AT THIS
POINT...WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT SOME POINT A
FEW LOCATIONS SEE HIGHER GUSTS MIXING DOWN BRIEFLY.
AND SPEAKING OF WIND AND GUSTS...WE HAVE THE CONVECTION AND POPS TO
BE CONCERNED ABOUT AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING...THAT IS
UNDOUBTED. ALL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENT OF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF QPF. ONE THING THAT THAT ISN/T SO
CERTAIN...HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DRY SLOT TO WORK IN ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...BEFORE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WORKS BACK IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT FIRST...KEPT LIKELY
POPS IN ACROSS THE REGION...AS IT APPEARED AS THOUGH PRECIPITATION
MAY LIGHTEN...BUT THERE WAS NO MODEL SUPPORT FOR ANY COMPLETE DRYING
OR SCATTERING OUT ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...LUCKILY THE LATEST HI RES
MODEL GUIDANCE STARTED TO TREND TOWARDS THIS DRIER SOLUTION. IN THE
END...CUT BACK LIKELY POPS TO SCATTERED FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF DRYING THAT MAY OCCUR.
THE WIND PROFILE AND FRONTAL INTERACTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A HIGH
SHEAR LOW CAPE CONVECTIVE SET UP FOR TODAY. 0Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A
VERY MOIST PROFILE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
LIMITING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE
PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL SHOW A STRONG
VEERING PATTERN NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER IN ALOFT. DESPITE LOW INSTABILITY
INDICES AND DRY SLOTTING POTENTIAL...EXPECT SOME PARCELS TO BE ABLE
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FRONTAL LIFT AND HIGH SHEER ENVIRONMENT. AS
SUCH...THE AMOUNT OF SPEED SHEER...AND DRYING ALOFT...WILL MAKE FOR
A HIGH POTENTIAL THAT ANY STORM WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALSO PRODUCING
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. KEPT MENTION OF THIS IN THE
HWO.
SURFACE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH QUICKLY BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z. WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT WESTERLY...ELIMINATING ANY LLVL VEERING AND
LIFT POTENTIAL. LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE...BUT STRONG INVERSION
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SET IN...FURTHER INHIBITING ANY CONVECTION
AFTER 0Z. EXPECT THIS LLVL WRAP AROUND PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE NIGHT...BEFORE THE MOISTURE FINALLY PULLS NE OUT OF THE REGION
AND DRY AIR BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY ALOFT AS IT CONTINUES ON ITS TREK NE.
HOWEVER...AS IT WEAKENS...ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP INTO
A DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER COMPARED TO TODAYS AS IT PASSES THROUGH KY...BUT
IT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO
SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE MID TERM PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH LONG LIVED
PRECIPITATION...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERALL.
STILL...MID AND UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION PREFRONTAL
TODAY. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BUT
CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE PREVENTING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 40S TONIGHT...AND
RECOVER TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW /JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN TO MISSISSIPPI. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND A
STRONG WEST TO EAST ZONAL SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A
COLD FRONT START APPROACHING THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING SOME SCATTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA ON SATURDAY
AND USHER IN A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE US. FOR
TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND...HOWEVER
NUDGED THE FINAL FORECAST TOWARD THE NEW ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE AREA INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 30 KNOTS AT
TIMES. IN ADDITION...A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
AS IT SPREADS INTO THE AREA...WITH A WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
THEREAFTER AS WE REMAIN IN THE DRY SLOT OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY
FILL IN OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW THE CLOUDS
GET TONIGHT. CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY GO TOWARDS VFR TOMORROW MORNING AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1008 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
SOME BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. FIRST
OFF...DOWNSLOPING HAS ALL BUT ERODED ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA...SO WILL DROP POPS ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR AND LATEST
RAP IS ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA. AND SPEAKING OF THE HRRR...THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS...WILL BRINGING IN A
PERIOD OF BETTER POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION
REMAINS IS HOW QUICKLY WE CAN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
IMMENSE CLOUD COVER STILL OVER THE AREA. IF WE CAN WARM SUFFICIENTLY
TODAY...WE COULD GET TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY. WITH TREMENDOUS SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...THIS WOULD
CREATE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. ALREADY
OBSERVING SOME SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...AND SAFE TO
SAY ANY SUNSHINE TODAY WILL SIGNIFICANTLY BOOST OUR SEVERE CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS TOSSED ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO A SLIGHT
RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE
TREMENDOUS SHEAR PROFILES...DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL COME
TO AN END BY 8 PM AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST.
EVEN WITHOUT SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL HAVE NEARLY 50 KNOTS OF WIND IN
THE MIXED LAYER. EVEN MIXING DOWN A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THIS WIND
WOULD YIELD WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THUS...GOING TO TOSS UP A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FINALLY...DROPPED POPS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS LACKING TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. WE COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE VERY LOW.
NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL COME IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. REMOVED THUNDER FROM THIS PERIOD
WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
A COMPLEX 24 HOURS IS IN STORE...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN TN CONTINUES ON ITS PATH NE INTO
CENTRAL KY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 6Z THIS EVENING. EAST TO SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE TRANSITION TO STRONG WSW WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...STEERING A SHIELD OF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY
THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION...WINDS...AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING THE DAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO KY...ECMWF
SHOWS A STRONG 250/300MB JET MAX THAT WILL SET UP FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS CENTRAL KY...MAXIMIZING AS THE LOW EJECTS TO THE NE BETWEEN 6
AND 12Z TONIGHT. THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE WINDS WILL REACH A VERY
IMPRESSIVE 160KTS BY 12Z...WITH STRONG WINDS FELT ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO THE MID LEVELS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL WORK
TO MIX SOME OF THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...CREATING THE THREAT
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY. AT THIS
POINT...WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT SOME POINT A
FEW LOCATIONS SEE HIGHER GUSTS MIXING DOWN BRIEFLY.
AND SPEAKING OF WIND AND GUSTS...WE HAVE THE CONVECTION AND POPS TO
BE CONCERNED ABOUT AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING...THAT IS
UNDOUBTED. ALL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENT OF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF QPF. ONE THING THAT THAT ISN/T SO
CERTAIN...HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DRY SLOT TO WORK IN ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...BEFORE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WORKS BACK IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT FIRST...KEPT LIKELY
POPS IN ACROSS THE REGION...AS IT APPEARED AS THOUGH PRECIPITATION
MAY LIGHTEN...BUT THERE WAS NO MODEL SUPPORT FOR ANY COMPLETE DRYING
OR SCATTERING OUT ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...LUCKILY THE LATEST HI RES
MODEL GUIDANCE STARTED TO TREND TOWARDS THIS DRIER SOLUTION. IN THE
END...CUT BACK LIKELY POPS TO SCATTERED FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF DRYING THAT MAY OCCUR.
THE WIND PROFILE AND FRONTAL INTERACTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A HIGH
SHEAR LOW CAPE CONVECTIVE SET UP FOR TODAY. 0Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A
VERY MOIST PROFILE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
LIMITING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE
PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL SHOW A STRONG
VEERING PATTERN NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER IN ALOFT. DESPITE LOW INSTABILITY
INDICES AND DRY SLOTTING POTENTIAL...EXPECT SOME PARCELS TO BE ABLE
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FRONTAL LIFT AND HIGH SHEER ENVIRONMENT. AS
SUCH...THE AMOUNT OF SPEED SHEER...AND DRYING ALOFT...WILL MAKE FOR
A HIGH POTENTIAL THAT ANY STORM WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALSO PRODUCING
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. KEPT MENTION OF THIS IN THE
HWO.
SURFACE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH QUICKLY BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z. WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT WESTERLY...ELIMINATING ANY LLVL VEERING AND
LIFT POTENTIAL. LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE...BUT STRONG INVERSION
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SET IN...FURTHER INHIBITING ANY CONVECTION
AFTER 0Z. EXPECT THIS LLVL WRAP AROUND PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE NIGHT...BEFORE THE MOISTURE FINALLY PULLS NE OUT OF THE REGION
AND DRY AIR BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY ALOFT AS IT CONTINUES ON ITS TREK NE.
HOWEVER...AS IT WEAKENS...ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP INTO
A DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER COMPARED TO TODAYS AS IT PASSES THROUGH KY...BUT
IT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO
SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE MID TERM PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH LONG LIVED
PRECIPITATION...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERALL.
STILL...MID AND UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION PREFRONTAL
TODAY. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BUT
CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE PREVENTING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 40S TONIGHT...AND
RECOVER TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW /JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN TO MISSISSIPPI. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND A
STRONG WEST TO EAST ZONAL SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A
COLD FRONT START APPROACHING THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING SOME SCATTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA ON SATURDAY
AND USHER IN A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE US. FOR
TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND...HOWEVER
NUDGED THE FINAL FORECAST TOWARD THE NEW ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/WARM FRONT HAVE POSITIONED ITSELF TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND WIND SHEAR FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO START DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT NEARS...CAUSING
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AIDED BY A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WILL SET UP ACROSS KENTUCKY. EARLY
THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BEGIN TO HELP MIX DOWN THESE
WINDS TO THE SURFACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 25 TO 30KT WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTS OF EVEN HIGHER
MAGNITUDE...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. AS FAR AS CIGS AND VSBY...THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. AS OF NOW...WE ARE FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...WITH CIGS AS LOW AS LIFR DOWNSTREAM. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS A
RESULT...ESPECIALLY ONCE HEAVIER PRECIP DEVELOPS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO WORK TO REDUCE VSBY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-
106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
833 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
830PM UPDATE...
HAVE FURTHER REFINED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE SPIKED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE FALLING QUICKLY BEHIND IT. MORE
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AS NOTED BY AREA OF RAIN
ALREADY IN QUEBEC AND VERMONT.
530PM UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LEADING EDGE OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS GROW A LITTLE MORE INTENSE. HAVE UPDATED
HOURLY POP FORECAST AND RELIED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR MODEL WHICH
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS BAND OF SHOWERS FAIRLY WELL. FOG HAS
MOVED IN TO COASTAL AREAS WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE.
HOWEVER... AS WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT THIS FOG WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AND IT WILL BRING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS OUR
WINDS SHIFT ACROSS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL GIVE US SOME
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW...THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KICK OFF SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL CREST OVERHEAD. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS GO
LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO QUICKLY MOVE THRU THE AREA. SKIES CLEAR ON
FRIDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW. BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY NE THRU NEW ENGLAND AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS THAT WOULD BE ENDING BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR
BEFORE A STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS UP BY MID SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU MONDAY EVENING BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.
WITH THE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR TIMING OF PCPN. INCREASED MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
TO IFR AS CLOUDS WILL LIFT WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW AND
THIS WILL HELP KICK OFF SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TOMORROW...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE SCA WILL REMAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
IN AN INCREASING SOUTH FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AND GUSTS
UP TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT MAY INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE SUNCOOK RIVER AT NORTH CHICHESTER REMAINS IN A RIVER FLOOD
WARNING. SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THE NIGHT DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY... HOWEVER ANY FLOODING WILL BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KISTNER
LONG TERM...MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
551 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS. PRECIP
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. HAVE
ADJUSTED TIMING CLOSER TO THE LATEST HRRR RUN THIS PAST
HOUR...BRINGING THE PRECIP IN SLIGHTLY FASTER TO MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
THERE WERE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES...WINDS...CLOUDS AND DEW POINT FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES.
PREV DISC...
CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR RAINMAKER LATER
TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH IS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE.
A WARM FRONT NOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL ROTATE
NORTHWARD INTO NH AND MAINE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG LLJ. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SW TO
NE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PWATS ARE
ALSO QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH RELATIVELY QUICKLY...WE ARE EXPECTING MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND FOOTHILLS TO GET BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES
BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL...SNOW
MELT...AND ICE JAMS WHICH MAY IMPACT AREA RIVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKING AT THE WIND COMPONENT OF THE SITUATION...ALTHOUGH THE U
WIND COMPONENT IS SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS...NONE OF THE TOP 15 CIPS
ANALOGS SHOW GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. THERE MAY BE A ROGUE GUST TO 35
KTS...BUT NOT EXPECTED ANY SITE TO SEE SUSTAINED 31-39 MPH OR
GUSTS ABOVE 46 MPH. THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED. THAT
SAID...THERE WILL BE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH..ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM. THIS MAY CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AS OFTEN
HAPPENS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY TOMORROW IN THE MORNING
HOURS...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID 40S/LOWER 50S
NORTH TO MID 50S/LOWER 60S SOUTH WITH /FINGERS CROSSED/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES BUILDS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WED AND WED
NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING DRYING WINDS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED WED OVER
MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN THE MTNS WHERE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF A RN/SNW
SHWR IS PSBL. A FAST WSWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ALLOWING THE HIGH TO
QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY THURS WITH A RETURN WARMER SWLY FLOW. SCT
LGT SHWRS ARE PSBL THU NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. A GRADUAL RETURN TO DRIER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED FOR
FRI WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SHWRS. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK A WARMER SSWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. NOTE THAT DURING THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT ALL THE SYSTEMS WILL BE FAST
MOVING WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PCPN WITH EACH FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR BECOMING MVFR IN RAIN AND FOG AROUND 03-06Z FROM
WEST TO EAST...THEN IFR/LIFR IN HEAVY RAIN AT ALL SITES FROM 06 TO
ABOUT 12Z. RAIN WILL LIGHTEN UP AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AS DRY AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY SSW WINDS OF 15G25KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
LATE IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE ONLY THING
THAT MAY CREEP UP TONIGHT WOULD BE LLWS BEFORE WINDS REALLY COME
UP AT THE SURFACE...BUT CURRENTLY MOST SITES ARE STILL AROUND 5-10
KTS...SO DID NOT INCLUDE IT FOR NOW.
LONG TERM...MVFR CIG/VSBY POSSIBLE IN ISOLD TO SCT -SHRASN IN THE
MTNS OTRW VFR CONDS WED. MVFR/IFR CIG/VSBY IN SHWRS THU NGT INTO
EARLY FRI. VFR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING FOR OUTER WATERS AND PENOBSCOT BAY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. ALSO A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR CASCO BAY.
THESE WILL LIKELY ALL BE EXTENDED AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AFTER
THE GALES EXPIRE AT 1 PM TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN NW FLOW. STRONGER SW FLOW AND HIGHER SEAS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1 AND A HALF INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HEAVY RAIN AND
SNOW MELT MAY CAUSE FLOODING ON RIVERS...SMALL CREEKS...AND
POSSIBLY LOW LYING URBAN AREAS. RIVERS STILL HAVE HAVE PLENTY OF
ICE WHICH MAY BEGIN MOVING...SO ICE JAMS COULD ALSO PRESENT A
FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
MEZ012>014-018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NHZ006-008>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
848 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN TODAY SPREADING RAIN SOUTH TO NORTH.
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN CARRIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 845AM UPDATE...SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS RADAR TRENDS STILL SHOW RELATIVELY
LIGHT ECHOES APPROACHING THAT AREA. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
ELSEWHERE IN FORECAST. ONE THING TO WATCH FOR BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON IS THAT THE RUC AND HRRR ARE DEPICTING THE DRY SLOT
MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES EARLIER THAN THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS...AND THIS COULD BRING AN END TO RAIN EARLIER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS. WILL MONITOR THIS AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD EDGING UP
THE WV/VA PORTION OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH CURRENT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT AROUND 10-20F...AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IS STILL
RESIDING IN THE AREA. TOP DOWN SATURATION OF THE COLUMN WILL TAKE
SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAMPED UP POPS IN THE SE RIDGES AROUND 12Z
WHERE AN EASTERLY LLVL WIND WILL AID IN POOLING MOISTURE AGAINST
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SATURATING THE COLUMN A BIT FASTER. ON THE
WRN SIDE OF THE RIDGELINE DOWN-SLOPING WINDS SHOULD DELAY THE
ONSET OF THE RAIN FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR OR TWO. THIS RAIN-SHADOW
EFFECT IS CURRENTLY BEING SEEN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS OF WV WHERE
ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IS BEING REPORTED.
BY MID-MORNING DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN GRADUALLY SPREADING RAIN
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. ALL MODELS HAVE THE DRY SLOT PUSHING
THROUGH BEGINNING AROUND 00Z. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE
RAIN AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO MORE CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS. MID-
LEVEL CAA WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH OUR SRN ZONES. DONT THINK ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS THIS
FAR NORTH FOR ANY REAL CHANCE OF THUNDER.
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH FROM 00Z TO 06Z...WINDS
SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL WITH GUSTS ACROSS THE
SOUTH APPROACHING 30-35KTS. WILL MENTION STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN
HWO FOR NOW...BUT DO NOT HAVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ANY
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE DRY SLOT TODAY WILL HELP KEEP
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN CHECK...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AROUND
HALF AN INCH OR LESS RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT.
TAX
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE IS LACKING
AND THE DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY ELEVATED WITH AND
LIFTING LIKELY TO COME FROM THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
DUE TO MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED PREFERENTIALLY FROM THE LOWER
LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL RAIN SHOULD
IT FALL AT ALL. THAT SAID...LIFT IS FAIRLY WEAK...MOISTURE IS VERY
LEAN...AND UPSLOPE REALLY IS THE ONLY MODEST FACTOR THAT PLAYS A
DECENT ROLE OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...POPS WERE KEPT CHANCE OR LOWER
ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWS THIS WEAK WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH INCREASING MIXING
SEEMS LIKELY BY THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD CATAPULT UPWARD BY THIS
JUNCTURE...WITH 70F IN SIGHT FOR MANY AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AS IT PASSES.
HOWEVER...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN QUICKLY ALLOWS FOR HEIGHT REBOUNDS
AS IT PASSES...MEANING LOW LEVEL WARMING STARTS TO RETURN IN
EARNEST FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST PUMPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE 10C BY SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD CHALLENGE OUR HIGHEST
READINGS OF THE YEAR SO FAR. ADDITIONALLY...AS THIS OCCURS...THE
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RIDGING THAT WILL THEN BE CENTERED ALOFT
AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD MANAGE TO SLOW THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM ENOUGH THAT SHOWERS WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT TO RETURN TO THE AREA. FRIES
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING AS MID CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO STREAM IN. RESTRICTIONS WILL BEGIN SHORTLY THEREAFTER
AS MVFR CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. CIGS SHOULD
DROP FURTHER FOR MOST LOCATIONS INTO IFR AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE FIRST OUT OF THE EAST AND VEERING TO
THE SOUTH TONIGHT. IN GENERAL THE WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS...BUT LATER TONIGHT GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
810 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS
PRODUCED SOME MID CLOUDS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BUT THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS OF SUN TO
SEND AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 40S WITH EVEN SOME 50S REPORTED SCNTRL
UPPER MI (AT LEAST 55F IN KMNM) DESPITE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING 5H HGTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. SFC RDG WILL
ALLOW LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES...STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN TO THE NW WILL GENERATE SOME PCPN
ACROSS MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A LONG
ENOUGH PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW
FOR A DECENT TEMP FALL. CONTINUED TO KEEP MINS TOWARD THE LOWER END
OF AVBL GUIDANCE...REPRESENTED BY THE BIAS CORRECTED REGIONAL AND
GLOBAL GEM. TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS SHOULD FALL TO THE MID
TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN TO THE LOW TEENS OVER THE E.
WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WILL SPREAD SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AFFECT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE
BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTH SHIFTING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA AND LEADING TO A FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS.
STRONG WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
(850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -2C AT 12Z TO AT LEAST 6C BY 00Z THURSDAY)
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND 40S OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF CWA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN. SW WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON (15-25KTS)
AND THAT WILL ALLOW THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO WARM
AND LIMIT LAKE BREEZE COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE LONG TERM IS IN STORE AS EASTERN CANADIAN
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING REDEVELOPS AND SENDS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
MOVING TO THE EAST AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
MANITOBA BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
295K ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ACROSS THE FAR EAST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. WHILE
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE MID LEVELS/5-10KFT...THE LOW-LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
VIRGA WITH ONLY ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND.
FAVORABLE FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT OF A DEVELOPING
90-100KT UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE AVAILABLE FORCING ACROSS UPPER MI TO A NARROW
BAND OF FGEN ALONG A SFC COLD FRONT. OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LOW...SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN A NARROW 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW ALONG THE FRONT. THE
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE QUITE SCATTERED...SO DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING OVER CHANCE POPS.
SKIES WILL THEN QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAD TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM LAKE SHADOWS
DOWNWIND OF WESTERLY WINDS.
WIND WILL BE OF NOTE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING S
TO SW GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NOTED BY A 50 TO 60KT H8 LLJ. AREAS
FAVORED BY S TO SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM WITH
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COMBINED WITH A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY
AND SFC DEWPOINTS RISING ABOVE 32F...THE SNOWPACK ACROSS UPPER MI
MAY BEGIN QUICKLY ERODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TO EACH THEIR OWN WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE
BEGINNING FRIDAY...WITH SOLUTIONS FRIDAY EVENING RANGING FROM A
STRONG LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/GFS/ TO WEAK RIDGING/NAM/ TO
NW FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES/GEM AND ECMWF/. THE GFS SOLUTION IS
A MAJOR DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO
SHOWING SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING FOR THIS REASON. WHILE THE
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS A WETTER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
STRETCH...TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS DOMINATE PRECIP-TYPE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. GIVEN SOME CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH
THE ECMWF...WILL USE THAT TO FORMULATE MUCH OF THE REMAINING
FORECAST.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER HUDSON BAY FRIDAY WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND GRAZE
LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM
THE LEFT-EXIT OF A DEVELOPING UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES A SFC TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
A COMPLICATED MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN RESULT IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS DEEP TROUGHING
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THIS WEEK TRACKS SE TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ROUND THE LARGER TROUGH...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BEFORE...MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR...SO
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO IS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...IF THIS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...UPPER MI WOULD BE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER MODERATE
TO HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. FOR
COMPARISON...THE GFS AND GEM DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM/PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY.
IF ANYTHING...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING BACK THE PATTERN FELT OVER
MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO
THE TIGHTENING SW GRAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SW WINDS
TO GUST BTWN 20-25 KT BY LATE WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES FROM
MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. WINDS WILL REACH THE 20-30KT
RANGE...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH
PLATFORMS WILL REACH GALE FORCE AT SOME POINT WED/THU. STABLE
LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL WORK AGAINST STRONGER WINDS...BUT
HEALTHY PRES FALLS AHEAD OF LOW LATE WED AND HEALTHY PRES RISES
ARRIVING BEHIND TROF PASSAGE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING MAY BE WHAT
PUSHES WINDS TO GALE FORCE FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THU
NIGHT/FRI. INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. LOWS WELL
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE
MOST ABUNDANT SNOWMELT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH DEWPOINTS ABOVE 32F AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS
THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
435 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN IL...WITH A 997MB
SFC LOW OFFSET JUST TO THE E. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THAT LOW TO NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH IS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE NEAR DLH. AN AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEEN STEADILY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA UNDER THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR
W...WITH NO PRECIP OBSERVED OVER WRN UPPER MI FROM THIS PRECIP. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE NEAR IRONWOOD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE GIVEN A
DIMINISHING TREND ON RADAR AND LACK OF MODELS SHOWING PRECIP THERE.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN COMING AND GOING FROM NEAR IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEAR NEWBERRY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
SHOULD HAVE FALLEN IN THAT AREA. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE SRN/ERN
SHOWERS POORLY...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS
OVER AN INCH NEAR THE WI BORDER...BUT THOSE MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED
THE PRECIP WELL ALL DAY AND HAVE SFC DEW POINTS /AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY/ TOO HIGH. WENT MORE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS THAT HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FOR THAT AREA...SO ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
THIS EVENING THERE.
AFTER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR W AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROUGH /AND FOG
OVER WRN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/ WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING NNW LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. STILL NOT TOO CERTAIN ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY...BUT ENOUGH
HIGH RES MODELS WERE SHOWING IT TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST WITH DECENT
CONFIDENCE. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW ALONG WITH A
SFC RIDGE...SO DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH IN THE MORNING. HAVE HIGHS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 50 OVER THE SCENTRAL...5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER /850MB TEMPS 8-9 DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY/.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
LIGHT WINDS AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI WHERE PW VALUES START
THE EVENING NEAR 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/. THE EXITING SFC RIDGE
OVER THE CWA AT 06Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY A WRAPPED
UP LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE 978MB WILL SWING ACROSS
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND E OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. 850MB WINDS AROUND 40KTS WILL BE OVER UPPER MI FROM 00Z
THURSDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT MIXING OFF THE
NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-35KT GUSTS OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS
FURTHER AS THE TIME NEARS. GALES MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
THE SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
TRIES TO PUSH N FROM THE MID MS VALLEY. EXPECT NW FLOW TO LINGER AT
500MB THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE THIS...SFC TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE
TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY...HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OUT OF THE HWO FOR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE W OF A LINE FROM MQT TO ESC...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HOLDING NEAR FREEZING. OTHERWISE ACROSS THE CWA TEMPS SHOULD BE
MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING. ANOTHER REASON TO KEEP THE MENTION OUT IS THE
FACT THAT OUR CURRENT TEMP FCST IS ON THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE...INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY.
THIS LOW PROBABILITY PRECIP WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STRETCH FROM WI THROUGH N TX
AT 06Z SUNDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES AT 12Z SUNDAY
WILL CROSS UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE SFC LOW
REMAINING MAINLY TO OUR S AND E /STRETCHING FROM S QUEBEC THROUGH MO
AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING ISSUES...PARTICULARLY
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON WITH THE GFS ON THE QUICK SIDE. EVEN WITH THE
DIFFERENCES THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR S CENTRAL UPPER MI. RAIN WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE UNTIL THE LOW SHIFTS E AND TRANSITIONS
TO MAINLY S SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLD FOR THE EXTENDED...JUST BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 12Z ECMWF
BRINGS 850MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE -15 TO -18C RANGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WHO ENJOY A LITTLE MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER...THE ECMWF DOES BRING BACK NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT 850MB
TEMPS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR
STORY...BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
RAIN SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH AS THEY
MOVE EAST...WITH ONLY SOME VCSH EXPECTED AT IWD. CMX COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT IT OUT SINCE NO MODELS SHOW IT.
OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG /CURRENTLY OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/ WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...LEADING TO
UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND -DZ/-FZDZ AT ALL SITES. WAS UNSURE ABOUT THE
EXTENT OF LOW CIGS AND VIS...BUT USED CONSENSUS OF HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS TODAY UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP TONIGHT/TUE...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN APPROACHING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SHOULD REACH
THE 15-25KT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVES FROM MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH PLATFORMS MAY REACH OR EXCEED
30KT AT SOME POINT WED/THU. WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED AND WOULD EXPECT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO INCREASE SNOWMELT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON TUESDAY (INCLUDING LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
342 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN IL...WITH A 997MB
SFC LOW OFFSET JUST TO THE E. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THAT LOW TO NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH IS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE NEAR DLH. AN AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEEN STEADILY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA UNDER THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR
W...WITH NO PRECIP OBSERVED OVER WRN UPPER MI FROM THIS PRECIP. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE NEAR IRONWOOD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE GIVEN A
DIMINISHING TREND ON RADAR AND LACK OF MODELS SHOWING PRECIP THERE.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN COMING AND GOING FROM NEAR IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEAR NEWBERRY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
SHOULD HAVE FALLEN IN THAT AREA. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE SRN/ERN
SHOWERS POORLY...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS
OVER AN INCH NEAR THE WI BORDER...BUT THOSE MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED
THE PRECIP WELL ALL DAY AND HAVE SFC DEW POINTS /AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY/ TOO HIGH. WENT MORE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS THAT HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FOR THAT AREA...SO ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
THIS EVENING THERE.
AFTER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR W AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROUGH /AND FOG
OVER WRN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/ WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING NNW LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. STILL NOT TOO CERTAIN ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY...BUT ENOUGH
HIGH RES MODELS WERE SHOWING IT TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST WITH DECENT
CONFIDENCE. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW ALONG WITH A
SFC RIDGE...SO DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH IN THE MORNING. HAVE HIGHS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 50 OVER THE SCENTRAL...5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER /850MB TEMPS 8-9 DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY/.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A 987MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NEW YORK.
BOTH OF THESE SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEFORE THIS RIDGE MOVES
IN...THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE PRODUCING SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND POTENTIALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW SHOWERS. STILL SEEING
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS
AND THE GEM/ECMWF. ALSO...THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER (3-5C) AT
925/850MB. LIKE YESTERDAY...WONDERING HOW MUCH OF THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRUE...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z CYQD SOUNDING
WITH THE INITIAL CONDITIONS ON THE GFS. IT IS REALLY STRUGGLING
BELOW 900MB...WITH WAY TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER (LIKELY DUE
TO MELTING SNOW). SATELLITE CONFIRMS IT ISN/T ISOLATED TO THAT
LOCATION...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THAT AREA. THINK
ODDS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION...SO WILL TRY TO ADJUST
POPS FOR JUST THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY WARM IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO
WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY OF THE POTENTIAL CLOUDS TO BE IN THE ICE
CRYSTAL REGION AND WILL MAINLY GO WITH A DZ/FZDZ PRECIP TYPE
DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE ARRIVES...DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH IN (IF THE LLVL MOISTURE ACTUALLY OCCURS) AND LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO A COOLER DAY OVER MUCH OF THE U.P. COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE
(UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40) AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS
IN...EXPECT SOME MID CLOUDS TO PUSH OVER THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INITIAL PUSH OF WARM AIR OCCURS.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE MID
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR (WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE).
THE WARM AIR SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND BREEZY (GUSTS 15-25KTS) DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS INDICATING MIXING POSSIBLY REACHING 850MB OVER WEST/CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...WHICH AT VALUES OF 3-7C...WOULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS INTO THE 60S. RAW MODEL DATA FROM NAM/GFS STILL
APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH SNOW DEPTH (SHOWING LITTLE TO NO SNOW
OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN)...BUT IT DOES HAVE 12-20 INCHES OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THAT TRIES TO COOL THE DOWNSTREAM AREAS WITH
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS. BASED OFF HOW WARM IT WAS TODAY...THINK
WARMING TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO GET VALUES INTO THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE WEST IS REASONABLE. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE EAST
DUE TO THE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LEADING TO THE WARM AIR SURGING INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF
50-200J/KG...SO THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE
SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA. OVERALL...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT (UNDER 0.15IN) ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST IF STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP
AND ALSO OVER THE FAR EAST WHERE IT WILL BE AIDED BY DIURNAL
HEATING TOWARDS EARLY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. BUT THAT MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY TROUGH BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ONE TREND THE MODELS HAVE HAD IS FOR A
SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH
MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. WILL MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE CWA TO ADDRESS THE INCREASING BUT LIMITED
POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL BEHIND THE
FRONT...850MB TEMPS STILL ARE AROUND 0C (UNLESS THE 00Z GEM IS
CORRECT WITH ITS -8C TEMPS) AND THAT WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BEING ABOVE
NORMAL. DID TREND THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS UP COUPLE DEGREES TO SHOW
SOME LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE HIGHS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF
MELTING THE SNOWPACK.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A DRY NIGHT ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM (00Z ECMWF/GEM IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE 00Z GFS IS ABOUT 6-12HRS FAST)...WITH
THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE FEATURE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW STALLS NEAR THE AREA AND STRETCHES
SOUTHWEST TO A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN TEXAS. WHERE THIS
FRONT STALLS DETERMINES THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS
IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AS THE 12Z RUN YESTERDAY BUT KEEPS THE FRONT
STALLED IN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS IT
OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED EAST WITH
THE STALLING OF THE FRONT AND PUTS IT IN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER
WAY...LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN DIMINISHING CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH COLDER AIR
SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A UPPER TROUGH WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION (SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THIS
WINTER). WOULD EXPECT THIS TO LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
RAIN SHOWERS OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DIMINISH AS THEY
MOVE EAST...WITH ONLY SOME VCSH EXPECTED AT IWD. CMX COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT IT OUT SINCE NO MODELS SHOW IT.
OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG /CURRENTLY OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/ WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...LEADING TO
UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND -DZ/-FZDZ AT ALL SITES. WAS UNSURE ABOUT THE
EXTENT OF LOW CIGS AND VIS...BUT USED CONSENSUS OF HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS TODAY UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP TONIGHT/TUE...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN APPROACHING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SHOULD REACH
THE 15-25KT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVES FROM MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH PLATFORMS MAY REACH OR EXCEED
30KT AT SOME POINT WED/THU. WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED AND WOULD EXPECT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO INCREASE SNOWMELT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON TUESDAY (INCLUDING LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
100 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH FROM THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST WILL SPREAD
RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN COULD
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES SOUTH OF I-94. LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES TODAY. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST WASN/T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER POPS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WERE
TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING A GULF COAST LOW
FROM LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND THEN TOWARD
CLEVELAND. THIS TRACK IS A TAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN YESTERDAY. DUE
TO THIS WE NUDGED THE HIGHER POPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FEED OF DRIER NORTHEAST AIR FROM CANADA THAT WILL
GREET THE RAIN WHEN IT GETS TO MICHIGAN.
LATEST SREF AND HRRR TRENDS WOULD PLACE THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN IN
THE FAR SE CWA AROUND NOON WITH A SLOW MOVE NWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN A SLOW MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE EAST. THE PCPN SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES COULD
MIX IN WITH THE DIMINISHING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE PCPN WINDS
DOWN. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WASN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST IS A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A LIGHT EVENT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH MOST
LIKELY.
THE SECOND PRECIP EVENT IS NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN
SYNC WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CENTERED MORE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BACKED OFF THE POPS IN THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT
NEXT WEEKEND TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE ECWMF WOULD EVEN
INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS
IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS APPROACHING 70
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH SOME IFR
INTO AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF KGRR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS
AND RAIN MOVE OUT. A LITTLE PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TODAY BUT WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTN WILL BACK TO THE NW AOB 10 KTS
TONIGHT. NW WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY
TUE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
A QUICK SHOT OF RAINFALL WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME BATTLING THE DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE. THIS MAY VERY WELL HELP TO KEEP HEAVIER TOTALS WELL
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AREAS AROUND BATTLE CREEK...LANSING AND
JACKSON HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING DECENT TOTALS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RISES ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK NEAR HOLT AND ON THE GRAND
RIVER NEAR JACKSON AND PUTS THEM BACK INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OVERALL...THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD ON MOST CREEKS AND
STREAMS. ONE NOTE TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT NORTHERN LOCATIONS STILL
HAVE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND. WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK IN THE
50S AND 60S MAY RESULT IN SOME RATHER SUBSTANTIAL MELTING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A QUICK HIT OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY. THE
BIGGER QUESTION REMAINS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHEN SOME HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY AFFECT THE AREA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1251 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH FROM THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST WILL SPREAD
RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN COULD
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES SOUTH OF I-94. LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES TODAY. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST WASN/T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER POPS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WERE
TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING A GULF COAST LOW
FROM LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND THEN TOWARD
CLEVELAND. THIS TRACK IS A TAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN YESTERDAY. DUE
TO THIS WE NUDGED THE HIGHER POPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FEED OF DRIER NORTHEAST AIR FROM CANADA THAT WILL
GREET THE RAIN WHEN IT GETS TO MICHIGAN.
LATEST SREF AND HRRR TRENDS WOULD PLACE THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN IN
THE FAR SE CWA AROUND NOON WITH A SLOW MOVE NWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN A SLOW MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE EAST. THE PCPN SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES COULD
MIX IN WITH THE DIMINISHING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE PCPN WINDS
DOWN. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WASN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST IS A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A LIGHT EVENT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH MOST
LIKELY.
THE SECOND PRECIP EVENT IS NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN
SYNC WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CENTERED MORE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BACKED OFF THE POPS IN THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT
NEXT WEEKEND TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE ECWMF WOULD EVEN
INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS
IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS APPROACHING 70
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES. RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS AND VSBY/S STEADILY DECLINING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SET IN AT JXN. KAZO...KBTL AND KLAN
WILL DROP INTO MVFR CONDITIONS...WHILE THE WORST OF CONDITIONS
WILL MISS GRR AND MKG. GRR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DIP INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN TONIGHT
WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR. SOME FOG MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TODAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
A QUICK SHOT OF RAINFALL WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME BATTLING THE DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE. THIS MAY VERY WELL HELP TO KEEP HEAVIER TOTALS WELL
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AREAS AROUND BATTLE CREEK...LANSING AND
JACKSON HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING DECENT TOTALS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RISES ON THE SYCAMORE CREEK NEAR HOLT AND ON THE GRAND
RIVER NEAR JACKSON AND PUTS THEM BACK INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OVERALL...THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD ON MOST CREEKS AND
STREAMS. ONE NOTE TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT NORTHERN LOCATIONS STILL
HAVE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND. WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK IN THE
50S AND 60S MAY RESULT IN SOME RATHER SUBSTANTIAL MELTING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A QUICK HIT OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY. THE
BIGGER QUESTION REMAINS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHEN SOME HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY AFFECT THE AREA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
748 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH FROM THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST WILL SPREAD
RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN COULD
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES SOUTH OF I-94. LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES TODAY. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST WASN/T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER POPS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WERE
TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING A GULF COAST LOW
FROM LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND THEN TOWARD
CLEVELAND. THIS TRACK IS A TAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN YESTERDAY. DUE
TO THIS WE NUDGED THE HIGHER POPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FEED OF DRIER NORTHEAST AIR FROM CANADA THAT WILL
GREET THE RAIN WHEN IT GETS TO MICHIGAN.
LATEST SREF AND HRRR TRENDS WOULD PLACE THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN IN
THE FAR SE CWA AROUND NOON WITH A SLOW MOVE NWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN A SLOW MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE EAST. THE PCPN SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES COULD
MIX IN WITH THE DIMINISHING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE PCPN WINDS
DOWN. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WASN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST IS A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A LIGHT EVENT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH MOST
LIKELY.
THE SECOND PRECIP EVENT IS NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN
SYNC WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CENTERED MORE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BACKED OFF THE POPS IN THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT
NEXT WEEKEND TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE ECWMF WOULD EVEN
INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS
IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS APPROACHING 70
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES. RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS AND VSBY/S STEADILY DECLINING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SET IN AT JXN. KAZO...KBTL AND KLAN
WILL DROP INTO MVFR CONDITIONS...WHILE THE WORST OF CONDITIONS
WILL MISS GRR AND MKG. GRR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DIP INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN TONIGHT
WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR. SOME FOG MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TODAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
ALTHOUGH RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS THE NUMBERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS HAVE
PROVED BENEFICIAL IN ALLOWING ALL BUT ONE LOCATION TO REACH CREST
AND BEGIN FALLING. EVART ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER IS THE ONE LOCATION
THAT IS EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY BEFORE
RISING SLIGHTLY BACK INTO ADVISORY DURING THE WEEK. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE IN PART TO ONGOING SNOW MELT UP NORTH WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ONCE AGAIN... THE LONE WARNING CONTINUES TO BE VICKSBURG ON THE
PORTAGE RIVER WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING.
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION AS TO THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE RAINFALL. AT THIS
POINT SOUTHERN AREAS AROUND KALAMAZOO...LANSING AND JACKSON LOOK
TO BE A BETTER BET FOR DECENT TOTALS. CURRENT ANTICIPATED TOTALS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COULD CREATE A SLIGHT PAUSE IN RECENT DROPS
OR SHORT LIVED RISE...BUT OTHERWISE ITS LIKELY TO BE RATHER ROUTINE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
742 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING OVER WRN
NAMERICA AND A TROF DEEPENING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. FLOW IN THE TROF
IS SPLIT WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE SRN STREAM OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. FARTHER N...A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS FARTHER N
OVER WRN MN. SHRA ARE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE ACROSS MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...ISENTROPIC ASCENT LINGERING OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA HAS PRODUCED A FEW SHRA OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES HAVE
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
SHORTWAVE OVER MN IS FCST TO WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES TODAY AS IT WILL BECOME SITUATED BTWN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING
SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM THE
SRN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR SOME -SHRA
TODAY. -SHRA POTENTIAL WILL BE AIDED BY DEVELOPMENT OF A LITTLE BIT
OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...LINGERING STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE AREA...AND DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
PAINTED SCHC POPS MAINLY OVER ROUGHLY THE INTERIOR W HALF AHEAD OF
INLAND MOVING LAKE BREEZE. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
AIR MASS OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE WILL BRING
COOLING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN.
CAA GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT UNDER DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF. A FEW
-SHRA MAY LINGER THIS EVENING OVER THE SCNTRL...THEN ATTENTION TURNS
TO STRENGTHENING N TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NRN UPPER MI...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND -DZ/-FZDZ AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
DEPARTS. THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IS WHAT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE
WILL LOOK LIKE. THE GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT LOOKS MUCH OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM SOUNDING AT
CYQD. THE NAM HAS BEEN BACKING OFF...BUT IT STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TONIGHT. GIVEN NAM/GFS TENDENCY TO OVERFORECAST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SPRING...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER -DZ/-FZDZ WILL DEVELOP. IF SFC DWPTS HAPPEN TO RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...THEN THE INCREASED
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF CHILLY MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO LEAD TO STRATUS/-FZDZ DEVELOPMENT AS THE CHILLY AIR
UPSLOPES INTO A HIGHER DWPT AIR MASS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -DZ/-FZDZ IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
N LATER TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A 987MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NEW YORK.
BOTH OF THESE SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEFORE THIS RIDGE MOVES
IN...THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE PRODUCING SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND POTENTIALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW SHOWERS. STILL SEEING
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS
AND THE GEM/ECMWF. ALSO...THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER (3-5C) AT
925/850MB. LIKE YESTERDAY...WONDERING HOW MUCH OF THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRUE...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z CYQD SOUNDING
WITH THE INITIAL CONDITIONS ON THE GFS. IT IS REALLY STRUGGLING
BELOW 900MB...WITH WAY TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER (LIKELY DUE
TO MELTING SNOW). SATELLITE CONFIRMS IT ISN/T ISOLATED TO THAT
LOCATION...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THAT AREA. THINK
ODDS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION...SO WILL TRY TO ADJUST
POPS FOR JUST THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY WARM IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO
WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY OF THE POTENTIAL CLOUDS TO BE IN THE ICE
CRYSTAL REGION AND WILL MAINLY GO WITH A DZ/FZDZ PRECIP TYPE
DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE ARRIVES...DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH IN (IF THE LLVL MOISTURE ACTUALLY OCCURS) AND LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO A COOLER DAY OVER MUCH OF THE U.P. COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE
(UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40) AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS
IN...EXPECT SOME MID CLOUDS TO PUSH OVER THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INITIAL PUSH OF WARM AIR OCCURS.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE MID
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR (WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE).
THE WARM AIR SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND BREEZY (GUSTS 15-25KTS) DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS INDICATING MIXING POSSIBLY REACHING 850MB OVER WEST/CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...WHICH AT VALUES OF 3-7C...WOULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS INTO THE 60S. RAW MODEL DATA FROM NAM/GFS STILL
APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH SNOW DEPTH (SHOWING LITTLE TO NO SNOW
OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN)...BUT IT DOES HAVE 12-20 INCHES OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THAT TRIES TO COOL THE DOWNSTREAM AREAS WITH
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS. BASED OFF HOW WARM IT WAS TODAY...THINK
WARMING TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO GET VALUES INTO THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE WEST IS REASONABLE. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE EAST
DUE TO THE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LEADING TO THE WARM AIR SURGING INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF
50-200J/KG...SO THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE
SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA. OVERALL...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT (UNDER 0.15IN) ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST IF STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP
AND ALSO OVER THE FAR EAST WHERE IT WILL BE AIDED BY DIURNAL
HEATING TOWARDS EARLY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. BUT THAT MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY TROUGH BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ONE TREND THE MODELS HAVE HAD IS FOR A
SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH
MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. WILL MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE CWA TO ADDRESS THE INCREASING BUT LIMITED
POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL BEHIND THE
FRONT...850MB TEMPS STILL ARE AROUND 0C (UNLESS THE 00Z GEM IS
CORRECT WITH ITS -8C TEMPS) AND THAT WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BEING ABOVE
NORMAL. DID TREND THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS UP COUPLE DEGREES TO SHOW
SOME LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE HIGHS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF
MELTING THE SNOWPACK.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A DRY NIGHT ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM (00Z ECMWF/GEM IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE 00Z GFS IS ABOUT 6-12HRS FAST)...WITH
THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE FEATURE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW STALLS NEAR THE AREA AND STRETCHES
SOUTHWEST TO A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN TEXAS. WHERE THIS
FRONT STALLS DETERMINES THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS
IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AS THE 12Z RUN YESTERDAY BUT KEEPS THE FRONT
STALLED IN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS IT
OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED EAST WITH
THE STALLING OF THE FRONT AND PUTS IT IN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER
WAY...LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN DIMINISHING CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH COLDER AIR
SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A UPPER TROUGH WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION (SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THIS
WINTER). WOULD EXPECT THIS TO LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
FOG HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH IT UP THE HILL TO
KCMX...BUT DID INCLUDE MVFR VIS FOR THE NEXT HR. VIS HAS RECENTLY
FALLEN TO MVFR AT KSAW AS WELL AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
HR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TO BE VFR TODAY. APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCT -SHRA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND KSAW. HOWEVER...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE OF -SHRA AND WHETHER THEY WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...DID NOT INCLUDE -SHRA IN FCST. AS GENERAL N TO NW
UPSLOPE WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS AND EVEN -FZDZ. SINCE FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...OPTED TO BRING IFR CIGS TO KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
NOT AN IDEAL UPSLOPE FLOW FOR KSAW...SO ONLY INCLUDED A LOW MVFR CIG
THERE. WHETHER OR NOT ANY -FZDZ WILL MATERIALIZE REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS TODAY UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP TONIGHT/TUE...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN APPROACHING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SHOULD REACH
THE 15-25KT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVES FROM MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH PLATFORMS MAY REACH OR EXCEED
30KT AT SOME POINT WED/THU. WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED AND WOULD EXPECT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO INCREASE SNOWMELT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON TUESDAY (INCLUDING LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
459 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING OVER WRN
NAMERICA AND A TROF DEEPENING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. FLOW IN THE TROF
IS SPLIT WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE SRN STREAM OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. FARTHER N...A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS FARTHER N
OVER WRN MN. SHRA ARE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE ACROSS MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...ISENTROPIC ASCENT LINGERING OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA HAS PRODUCED A FEW SHRA OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES HAVE
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
SHORTWAVE OVER MN IS FCST TO WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES TODAY AS IT WILL BECOME SITUATED BTWN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING
SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM THE
SRN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR SOME -SHRA
TODAY. -SHRA POTENTIAL WILL BE AIDED BY DEVELOPMENT OF A LITTLE BIT
OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...LINGERING STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE AREA...AND DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
PAINTED SCHC POPS MAINLY OVER ROUGHLY THE INTERIOR W HALF AHEAD OF
INLAND MOVING LAKE BREEZE. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
AIR MASS OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE WILL BRING
COOLING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN.
CAA GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT UNDER DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF. A FEW
-SHRA MAY LINGER THIS EVENING OVER THE SCNTRL...THEN ATTENTION TURNS
TO STRENGTHENING N TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NRN UPPER MI...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND -DZ/-FZDZ AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
DEPARTS. THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IS WHAT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE
WILL LOOK LIKE. THE GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT LOOKS MUCH OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM SOUNDING AT
CYQD. THE NAM HAS BEEN BACKING OFF...BUT IT STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TONIGHT. GIVEN NAM/GFS TENDENCY TO OVERFORECAST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SPRING...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER -DZ/-FZDZ WILL DEVELOP. IF SFC DWPTS HAPPEN TO RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...THEN THE INCREASED
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF CHILLY MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO LEAD TO STRATUS/-FZDZ DEVELOPMENT AS THE CHILLY AIR
UPSLOPES INTO A HIGHER DWPT AIR MASS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -DZ/-FZDZ IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
N LATER TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A 987MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NEW YORK.
BOTH OF THESE SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEFORE THIS RIDGE MOVES
IN...THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE PRODUCING SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND POTENTIALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW SHOWERS. STILL SEEING
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS
AND THE GEM/ECMWF. ALSO...THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER (3-5C) AT
925/850MB. LIKE YESTERDAY...WONDERING HOW MUCH OF THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRUE...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z CYQD SOUNDING
WITH THE INITIAL CONDITIONS ON THE GFS. IT IS REALLY STRUGGLING
BELOW 900MB...WITH WAY TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER (LIKELY DUE
TO MELTING SNOW). SATELLITE CONFIRMS IT ISN/T ISOLATED TO THAT
LOCATION...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THAT AREA. THINK
ODDS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION...SO WILL TRY TO ADJUST
POPS FOR JUST THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY WARM IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO
WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY OF THE POTENTIAL CLOUDS TO BE IN THE ICE
CRYSTAL REGION AND WILL MAINLY GO WITH A DZ/FZDZ PRECIP TYPE
DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE ARRIVES...DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH IN (IF THE LLVL MOISTURE ACTUALLY OCCURS) AND LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO A COOLER DAY OVER MUCH OF THE U.P. COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE
(UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40) AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS
IN...EXPECT SOME MID CLOUDS TO PUSH OVER THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INITIAL PUSH OF WARM AIR OCCURS.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE MID
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR (WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE).
THE WARM AIR SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND BREEZY (GUSTS 15-25KTS) DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS INDICATING MIXING POSSIBLY REACHING 850MB OVER WEST/CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...WHICH AT VALUES OF 3-7C...WOULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS INTO THE 60S. RAW MODEL DATA FROM NAM/GFS STILL
APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH SNOW DEPTH (SHOWING LITTLE TO NO SNOW
OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN)...BUT IT DOES HAVE 12-20 INCHES OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THAT TRIES TO COOL THE DOWNSTREAM AREAS WITH
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS. BASED OFF HOW WARM IT WAS TODAY...THINK
WARMING TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO GET VALUES INTO THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE WEST IS REASONABLE. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE EAST
DUE TO THE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LEADING TO THE WARM AIR SURGING INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF
50-200J/KG...SO THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE
SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA. OVERALL...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT (UNDER 0.15IN) ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST IF STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP
AND ALSO OVER THE FAR EAST WHERE IT WILL BE AIDED BY DIURNAL
HEATING TOWARDS EARLY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. BUT THAT MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY TROUGH BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ONE TREND THE MODELS HAVE HAD IS FOR A
SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH
MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. WILL MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE CWA TO ADDRESS THE INCREASING BUT LIMITED
POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL BEHIND THE
FRONT...850MB TEMPS STILL ARE AROUND 0C (UNLESS THE 00Z GEM IS
CORRECT WITH ITS -8C TEMPS) AND THAT WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BEING ABOVE
NORMAL. DID TREND THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS UP COUPLE DEGREES TO SHOW
SOME LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE HIGHS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF
MELTING THE SNOWPACK.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A DRY NIGHT ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM (00Z ECMWF/GEM IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE 00Z GFS IS ABOUT 6-12HRS FAST)...WITH
THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE FEATURE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW STALLS NEAR THE AREA AND STRETCHES
SOUTHWEST TO A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN TEXAS. WHERE THIS
FRONT STALLS DETERMINES THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS
IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AS THE 12Z RUN YESTERDAY BUT KEEPS THE FRONT
STALLED IN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS IT
OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED EAST WITH
THE STALLING OF THE FRONT AND PUTS IT IN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER
WAY...LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN DIMINISHING CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH COLDER AIR
SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A UPPER TROUGH WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION (SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THIS
WINTER). WOULD EXPECT THIS TO LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VCNTY. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO POP UP
THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. UNTIL THEN...STILL A RISK OF FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE
IF THE FOG BECOMES WELL DEVELOPED...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE JUST
OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY AS MID CLOUDS MAY ACT TO DETER RADITIONAL
COOLING AND FOG POTENTIAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS TODAY UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP TONIGHT/TUE...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN APPROACHING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SHOULD REACH
THE 15-25KT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVES FROM MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH PLATFORMS MAY REACH OR EXCEED
30KT AT SOME POINT WED/THU. WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED AND WOULD EXPECT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO INCREASE SNOWMELT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON TUESDAY (INCLUDING LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH FROM THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST WILL SPREAD
RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN COULD
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES SOUTH OF I-94. LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES TODAY. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST WASN/T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER POPS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WERE
TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING A GULF COAST LOW
FROM LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND THEN TOWARD
CLEVELAND. THIS TRACK IS A TAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN YESTERDAY. DUE
TO THIS WE NUDGED THE HIGHER POPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FEED OF DRIER NORTHEAST AIR FROM CANADA THAT WILL
GREET THE RAIN WHEN IT GETS TO MICHIGAN.
LATEST SREF AND HRRR TRENDS WOULD PLACE THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN IN
THE FAR SE CWA AROUND NOON WITH A SLOW MOVE NWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN A SLOW MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE EAST. THE PCPN SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES COULD
MIX IN WITH THE DIMINISHING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE PCPN WINDS
DOWN. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WASN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST IS A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A LIGHT EVENT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH MOST
LIKELY.
THE SECOND PRECIP EVENT IS NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN
SYNC WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CENTERED MORE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BACKED OFF THE POPS IN THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT
NEXT WEEKEND TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE ECWMF WOULD EVEN
INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THE FORECAST.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS
IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS APPROACHING 70
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR IN THE AFTERNOON...
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT JXN/LAN/BTL/AZO AFTER 18Z.
IFR IS MOST LIKELY AT JXN/LAN/BTL...ESPECIALLY 21Z-03Z.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE RAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND GRR SHOULD BE RIGHT ON THAT EDGE. WILL
GO MVFR FOR A TIME AT GRR 21Z-02Z BUT WILL KEEP MKG ENTIRELY VFR.
SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES... WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
ALTHOUGH RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS THE NUMBERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS HAVE
PROVED BENEFICIAL IN ALLOWING ALL BUT ONE LOCATION TO REACH CREST
AND BEGIN FALLING. EVART ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER IS THE ONE LOCATION
THAT IS EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY BEFORE
RISING SLIGHTLY BACK INTO ADVISORY DURING THE WEEK. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE IN PART TO ONGOING SNOW MELT UP NORTH WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ONCE AGAIN... THE LONE WARNING CONTINUES TO BE VICKSBURG ON THE
PORTAGE RIVER WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING.
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION AS TO THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE RAINFALL. AT THIS
POINT SOUTHERN AREAS AROUND KALAMAZOO...LANSING AND JACKSON LOOK
TO BE A BETTER BET FOR DECENT TOTALS. CURRENT ANTICIPATED TOTALS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COULD CREATE A SLIGHT PAUSE IN RECENT DROPS
OR SHORT LIVED RISE...BUT OTHERWISE ITS LIKELY TO BE RATHER ROUTINE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
653 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
.UPDATE...
Good evening to all across extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks.
Showers were gradually dissipating over the eastern Ozarks as we
approached the 7 pm hour. RAP analysis suggested that most
unstable CAPES had fallen to below 100 j/kg in this area.
Therefore we updated the HWO and took thunder out of the forecast.
We also loaded in the CONSSHORT hourly temperature guidance
through the rest of tonight. This guidance gave us lows ranging
from the low to mid 30s. Given the clear skies and calm surface
winds, frost is likely in nearly all locations tonight.
Just a reminder, frost and freeze headlines are scheduled to begin
next week.
Have a good one !
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
A digging upper level jet and shortwave over the western cwfa on
the back side of a longer wave trough axis over the MS Vly is
producing some scattered showers and thunderstorms. An uptick in
precip coverage has occurred with diurnal heating and increased
but still modest mlcape. Some very small hail has occurred with
low freezing levels/cold air aloft. This should be the last of the
precip as the trough shifts east and strong mid level height rises
move into the region from the west. Drier air will advect into the
region tonight as a sfc ridge axis moves overhead by 12z Wed.
Light winds and a clearing sky should allow frost to form with
temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s.
A dry south return flow will increase on Wed with breezy
conditions, especially over the northwest half of the cwfa.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be a concern. Some greening
of grass fuels has occurred over the past couple of weeks, and the
main concerns fuels wise will be longer dead/cured grasses and forest
leaf litter. No fire weather headlines are planned, but will
continue to highlight elevated concerns in the HWO. After a chilly
start Wed, temperatures will warm nicely into the mid 60s to low 70s
with warmest temperatures over the western cwfa.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
Mild/warm weather will continue Wed night and Thu ahead of an
approaching sfc trough/front. A fast moving shortwave will aid in
overall lift to produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms near
the sfc boundary as it`s progress slows over the area Fri.
A more substantial upper level system will develop over the
Western U.S. as northern stream system phases with a Pacific based
system. A prolonged and increasingly more substantial Gulf
moisture fetch will develop over the weekend with precip
developing along an approaching sfc boundary. Will have fairly
high rain/tstm chances Sunday and Sunday night.
Will have to watch the frost/freeze potential early next week with
cold Canadian air nosing into the area behind the front. The 00z
ECMWF, and to some extent the 12z GEM, are more bullish with
colder air versus the 12z GFS. Will watch trends.
&&
.AVIATION...
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
experience fair weather this evening and the rest of tonight.
Surface winds will eventually become calm tonight as high pressure
drifts across southern Missouri.
Meanwhile, skies will clear as showers dissipate in the eastern
Ozarks. No additional showers are expected.
For tomorrow afternoon, south to southwest winds will start to
crank once again, with gusts up to 25 mph.
Safe Travels.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS AFTN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM
RIDGE SITUATED OFF THE WEST COAST. MEANWHILE MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS HAS ALLOWED A COLD FRONT...ASSOC WITH SFC LOW CENTERED
OVER TN VLY... TO PUSH DEEP INTO THE SRN GULF COAST STATES. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WRN RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS IT PUSHES EAST
WITH EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
TONIGHT...SOME POST-FRONTAL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME POST-
FRONT PCPN ASSOC WITH SMALL POCKET OF 300K UPGLIDE/700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT THOUGH WILL BE SPARSE IN
NATURE GIVEN DEPTH OF DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME AS SEEN PER BUFKIT. NO
ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED THEN TUES AND WED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING
THE REGION.
WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BRINGS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION.
NAM/GFS/ECM ALL INDICATE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE QUITE INTENSE
WELL BEFORE DROPPING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...WITH BUFKIT
CLEARLY SHOWING NIL DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM GOING FCST WHICH HAS JUST SMALL POPS FOR
AREAS NORTH.
OTHERWISE...WELL MIXED BNDRY LYR DURING THE AFTN HOURS TUES-THUR
SHOULD PROVIDE RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
LARGE SCALE PATTERN RETURNS TO PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE AND WILL ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES...IN PARTICULAR SAT THRU MON. LONGWAVE
TROF WITH EMBEDDED NRN/SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL QUICKLY PASS OVER
THE ROCKIES THEN EVENTUALLY PHASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR US...FOCUS
FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY REVOLVE PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT
SAT FOLLOWED BY NRN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST TIME-SERIES PROGS SHOW
MOISTURE FEED AS ADVERTISED BY THE ECM LEADING UP TO THE FROPA LOOKS
MUCH MORE FAVORABLE AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS. CURRENT FCST ALREADY HAS
HIGH END CHANCE POPS IN PLACE...THUS SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE GFS IS NOW LEANING TWD A SHARPER LONGWAVE TROF
SIMILAR TO THE ECM. GIVEN THIS PLUS CONSISTENCY OF ECM...CONFIDENCE
IS BIT HIGHER AFTN TEMPS NEXT SUN/MON WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
LOW/MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BLEND OF HRRR AND
RAP SUGGEST KOMA WOULD HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE OF -SHRA LATER THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...SO DID MENTION THAT THERE. OTHERWISE KEPT TAFS
DRY. WINDS WILL INCREASE YET THIS AFTN THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 14Z OR 15Z TUESDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1228 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS A MESOSCALE VORTEX DROPPING SSE THRU THE
SANDHILLS. THIS WILL BE THE COLD POCKET ALOFT THAT WILL PROVIDE
THE INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON`S SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY.
DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING PER THE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF CU
ON VIS SATELLITE. GOES SOUNDER LI SHOWS INCREASING NEGATIVE
VALUES.
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE TOUGH GIVEN DIFFERENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND
NO MODELS THAT ARE HANDLING SHORT-TERM TRENDS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 7.5 C/KM. BOTH THE RAP/NAM SBCAPE IS
300-500 J/KG IN THE PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. SO FCST WILL CONT
AS IS. WE MAY ATTEMPT TO MAKE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY TO LOWER THEM E OF HWY 281.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 841 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
SENT AN EARLY ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE TO BETTER
DEFINE POPS THRU MIDDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR SHWRS WITH
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING. ONE EXPANDING BATCH EXTENDS
FROM GENEVA NEB-KIRWIN KS AND WAS DROPPING S. THE OTHER BATCH OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY WAS OVER THE SANDHILLS AND HEADING SSE.
THE 10Z HI-RES RAP HAS AN INTERESTING DEPICTION OF WHAT MAY
TRANSPIRE TODAY. THE SRN BATCH WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA. THE NRN
BATCH WILL DISSIPATE. THEN WE WATCH AS SCT SHWRS REDEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THUNDER POTENTIAL. WILL
DO THAT WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
THE 09Z SREF AND HI-RES OPERATIONAL QPF SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOSTLY W OF HWY 281.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CWA IN A BIT OF A LULL EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH ERN PORTIONS
OF OK/KS...WITH ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ACTIVITY
HAS REALLY TAPERED OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING SOME
MUCH WELCOME RAIN TO MAINLY WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK PATTERN IN PLACE IS KEEPING WINDS FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND ERN LOCATIONS ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE...WITH A
BOUNDARY STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH WRN LOCATIONS...USHERING IN MORE
W/NW WINDS.
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIE IN ROUGHLY THE
FIRST 12 HRS...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND THE STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED
ABOUT...MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE GOING ON ACROSS THE CWA...AND
KEPT POPS LOW. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /WHICH IS ON THE WEAK SIDE/ SLIDING
THROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WRN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES...AN AREA THAT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES...AS A CORRIDOR OF COLDER TEMPS BUILDS IN. THOUGHT IS
THAT PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO
WAS NOT GOING TO MAKE INCREASES IN POPS...BUT DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS IN AREA. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIT OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SO DID INSERT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER.
AS FAR AS WINDS GO...THE NORTHWESTERLY SWITCH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN THAT
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN SPEEDS...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE HAD BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND ADV LEVEL SPEEDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE DATA CONTINUED ITS
DOWNWARD TREND FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AND WITHOUT AN AREA OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES. SOME LOCATIONS...ESP IN THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA...MAY
COME CLOSE...SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN
EYE ON.
KEPT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT DRY AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA...BUT AM CONCERNED AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES MAY
TRY TO LINGER INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL LET DAY
SHIFT SEE HOW PRECIP TRENDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND ADD A
MENTION IF NECESSARY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT
LOOKING TO FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL
KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. THE SUNSHINE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION STARTS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MIXING SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DEEP. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST DEW POINTS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWERS TO AROUND
20 PERCENT AND WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA
SATURDAY. SATURDAY DURING THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL COOLER AGAIN WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE
ECMWF AND DURING THIS TIME THE GFS HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0
DEG C IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS WARMER AND
LOOKS LIKE THE 0 DEG C LINE SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA. SINCE IT
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF APRIL...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z GRI TAF THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SCT CU/STRATOCU. SCT SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A
BRIEF TSTM COULD RESULT IN A TEMPO MVFR VSBY IF THEY ARE STRONG
ENOUGH. NO GUARANTEES OF A DIRECT HIT ON THE TERMINAL. SO WATCH
FOR AMENDMENTS AS WE WATCH RADAR. NNW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 28
KTS. HOWEVER...SFC WINDS MAY BECOME ERRATIC AND GUSTIER IN/NEAR
SHWRS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS END EARLY EVENING. VFR CLEARING. NW
WINDS SETTLE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TUE THRU 18Z: VFR SKC. NW WILL BECOME GUSTY BY 16Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1205 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
ISSUED A COUPLE OF TEXT PRODUCT AND GRID UPDATES EARLIER. WILL DO SO
AGAIN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. BAND OF SHOWERS FROM EAST OF OMAHA TO
SOUTH OF BEATRICE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS
AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 850 MB TO 650 MB LAYER WEAKENS.
HIGH RESOLUTION NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE THAT WELL. HIGH RES SHORT RANGE
MODELS SUCH AS RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST SOME ISOLD TO SCT DVLPMT IS PSBL
YET THIS AFTN...SO LEFT POPS MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT. BUMPED HIGHS UP
JUST A BIT AND TWEAKED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
THE LINE OF SHOWERS THAT LINGERED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAS
DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE SECONDARY PIECE OF
ENERGY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THE LINGERS IN THE AREA. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SUGGESTING
THAT PRECIP COULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...INITIALLY AS SHOWERS...THEN
POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. AND YET ONE MORE WEAK SUBTLE WAVE...NOTED MOVING OUT OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA...SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE AREA...WHICH WOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT BY
MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TODAY REACHING 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS TUESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING ALONG
WHILE H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO A VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS 75 TO 80 WITH SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE NOW HINTING THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT COULD CLIP THE NE/SD BORDER REGION.
NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY WITH DECENT WARMING...AND EVEN
MORESO ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVES LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
AHEAD OF THE ECMWF ON TIMING...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST A
FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
GENEROUS QPF AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH OR MORE. SINCE THE GFS IS
FASTER...IT MOVES THE PRECIP OUT BY SUNDAY INTO KS/MO...BUT ECMWF
LAGS SHOWERS CHANCES IN OUR AREA. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST DECENT RAINFALL EVENT OF THE SEASON...
BUT CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON TIMING THE EXACT CHANCES IN AND OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BLEND OF HRRR AND
RAP SUGGEST KOMA WOULD HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE OF -SHRA LATER THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...SO DID MENTION THAT THERE. OTHERWISE KEPT TAFS
DRY. WINDS WILL INCREASE YET THIS AFTN THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 14Z OR 15Z TUESDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1127 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS A MESOSCALE VORTEX DROPPING SSE THRU THE
SANDHILLS. THIS WILL BE THE COLD POCKET ALOFT THAT WILL PROVIDE
THE INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON`S SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY.
DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING PER THE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF CU
ON VIS SATELLITE. GOES SOUNDER LI SHOWS INCREASING NEGATIVE
VALUES.
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINTS ARE TOUGH GIVEN DIFFERENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND
NO MODELS THAT ARE HANDLING SHORT-TERM TRENDS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 7.5 C/KM. BOTH THE RAP/NAM SBCAPE IS
300-500 J/KG IN THE PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. SO FCST WILL CONT
AS IS. WE MAY ATTEMPT TO MAKE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY TO LOWER THEM E OF HWY 281.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 841 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
SENT AN EARLY ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE TO BETTER
DEFINE POPS THRU MIDDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR SHWRS WITH
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING. ONE EXPANDING BATCH EXTENDS
FROM GENEVA NEB-KIRWIN KS AND WAS DROPPING S. THE OTHER BATCH OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY WAS OVER THE SANDHILLS AND HEADING SSE.
THE 10Z HI-RES RAP HAS AN INTERESTING DEPICTION OF WHAT MAY
TRANSPIRE TODAY. THE SRN BATCH WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA. THE NRN
BATCH WILL DISSIPATE. THEN WE WATCH AS SCT SHWRS REDEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THUNDER POTENTIAL. WILL
DO THAT WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
THE 09Z SREF AND HI-RES OPERATIONAL QPF SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOSTLY W OF HWY 281.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CWA IN A BIT OF A LULL EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH ERN PORTIONS
OF OK/KS...WITH ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ACTIVITY
HAS REALLY TAPERED OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING SOME
MUCH WELCOME RAIN TO MAINLY WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK PATTERN IN PLACE IS KEEPING WINDS FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND ERN LOCATIONS ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE...WITH A
BOUNDARY STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH WRN LOCATIONS...USHERING IN MORE
W/NW WINDS.
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIE IN ROUGHLY THE
FIRST 12 HRS...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND THE STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED
ABOUT...MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE GOING ON ACROSS THE CWA...AND
KEPT POPS LOW. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /WHICH IS ON THE WEAK SIDE/ SLIDING
THROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WRN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES...AN AREA THAT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES...AS A CORRIDOR OF COLDER TEMPS BUILDS IN. THOUGHT IS
THAT PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO
WAS NOT GOING TO MAKE INCREASES IN POPS...BUT DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS IN AREA. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIT OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SO DID INSERT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER.
AS FAR AS WINDS GO...THE NORTHWESTERLY SWITCH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN THAT
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN SPEEDS...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE HAD BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND ADV LEVEL SPEEDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE DATA CONTINUED ITS
DOWNWARD TREND FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AND WITHOUT AN AREA OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES. SOME LOCATIONS...ESP IN THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA...MAY
COME CLOSE...SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN
EYE ON.
KEPT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT DRY AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA...BUT AM CONCERNED AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES MAY
TRY TO LINGER INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL LET DAY
SHIFT SEE HOW PRECIP TRENDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND ADD A
MENTION IF NECESSARY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT
LOOKING TO FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL
KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. THE SUNSHINE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION STARTS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MIXING SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DEEP. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST DEW POINTS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWERS TO AROUND
20 PERCENT AND WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA
SATURDAY. SATURDAY DURING THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL COOLER AGAIN WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE
ECMWF AND DURING THIS TIME THE GFS HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0
DEG C IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS WARMER AND
LOOKS LIKE THE 0 DEG C LINE SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA. SINCE IT
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF APRIL...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND AT
ANY TIME THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT THE GRI TERMINAL WILL GIVE
WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 25 MPH...AND GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TERMINAL BEING AFFECTED IS ON THE LOW SIDE...SO KEPT MENTION AS VC
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
922 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 7.5 C/KM. BOTH THE RAP/NAM SBCAPE IS
300-500 J/KG IN THE PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. SO FCST WILL CONT
AS IS. WE MAY ATTEMPT TO MAKE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY TO LOWER THEM E OF HWY 281.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 841 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
SENT AN EARLY ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE TO BETTER
DEFINE POPS THRU MIDDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR SHWRS WITH
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING. ONE EXPANDING BATCH EXTENDS
FROM GENEVA NEB-KIRWIN KS AND WAS DROPPING S. THE OTHER BATCH OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY WAS OVER THE SANDHILLS AND HEADING SSE.
THE 10Z HI-RES RAP HAS AN INTERESTING DEPICTION OF WHAT MAY
TRANSPIRE TODAY. THE SRN BATCH WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA. THE NRN
BATCH WILL DISSIPATE. THEN WE WATCH AS SCT SHWRS REDEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THUNDER POTENTIAL. WILL
DO THAT WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
THE 09Z SREF AND HI-RES OPERATIONAL QPF SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOSTLY W OF HWY 281.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CWA IN A BIT OF A LULL EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH ERN PORTIONS
OF OK/KS...WITH ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ACTIVITY
HAS REALLY TAPERED OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING SOME
MUCH WELCOME RAIN TO MAINLY WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK PATTERN IN PLACE IS KEEPING WINDS FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND ERN LOCATIONS ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE...WITH A
BOUNDARY STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH WRN LOCATIONS...USHERING IN MORE
W/NW WINDS.
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIE IN ROUGHLY THE
FIRST 12 HRS...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND THE STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED
ABOUT...MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE GOING ON ACROSS THE CWA...AND
KEPT POPS LOW. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /WHICH IS ON THE WEAK SIDE/ SLIDING
THROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WRN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES...AN AREA THAT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES...AS A CORRIDOR OF COLDER TEMPS BUILDS IN. THOUGHT IS
THAT PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO
WAS NOT GOING TO MAKE INCREASES IN POPS...BUT DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS IN AREA. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIT OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SO DID INSERT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER.
AS FAR AS WINDS GO...THE NORTHWESTERLY SWITCH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN THAT
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN SPEEDS...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE HAD BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND ADV LEVEL SPEEDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE DATA CONTINUED ITS
DOWNWARD TREND FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AND WITHOUT AN AREA OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES. SOME LOCATIONS...ESP IN THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA...MAY
COME CLOSE...SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN
EYE ON.
KEPT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT DRY AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA...BUT AM CONCERNED AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES MAY
TRY TO LINGER INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL LET DAY
SHIFT SEE HOW PRECIP TRENDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND ADD A
MENTION IF NECESSARY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT
LOOKING TO FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL
KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. THE SUNSHINE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION STARTS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MIXING SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DEEP. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST DEW POINTS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWERS TO AROUND
20 PERCENT AND WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA
SATURDAY. SATURDAY DURING THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL COOLER AGAIN WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE
ECMWF AND DURING THIS TIME THE GFS HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0
DEG C IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS WARMER AND
LOOKS LIKE THE 0 DEG C LINE SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA. SINCE IT
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF APRIL...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND AT
ANY TIME THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT THE GRI TERMINAL WILL GIVE
WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 25 MPH...AND GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TERMINAL BEING AFFECTED IS ON THE LOW SIDE...SO KEPT MENTION AS VC
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
841 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
SENT AN EARLY ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE TO BETTER
DEFINE POPS THRU MIDDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR SHWRS WITH
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING. ONE EXPANDING BATCH EXTENDS
FROM GENEVA NEB-KIRWIN KS AND WAS DROPPING S. THE OTHER BATCH OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY WAS OVER THE SANDHILLS AND HEADING SSE.
THE 10Z HI-RES RAP HAS AN INTERESTING DEPICTION OF WHAT MAY
TRANSPIRE TODAY. THE SRN BATCH WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA. THE NRN
BATCH WILL DISSIPATE. THEN WE WATCH AS SCT SHWRS REDEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THUNDER POTENTIAL. WILL
DO THAT WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
THE 09Z SREF AND HI-RES OPERATIONAL QPF SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOSTLY W OF HWY 281.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CWA IN A BIT OF A LULL EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH ERN PORTIONS
OF OK/KS...WITH ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ACTIVITY
HAS REALLY TAPERED OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING SOME
MUCH WELCOME RAIN TO MAINLY WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK PATTERN IN PLACE IS KEEPING WINDS FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND ERN LOCATIONS ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE...WITH A
BOUNDARY STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH WRN LOCATIONS...USHERING IN MORE
W/NW WINDS.
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIE IN ROUGHLY THE
FIRST 12 HRS...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND THE STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED
ABOUT...MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE GOING ON ACROSS THE CWA...AND
KEPT POPS LOW. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /WHICH IS ON THE WEAK SIDE/ SLIDING
THROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WRN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES...AN AREA THAT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES...AS A CORRIDOR OF COLDER TEMPS BUILDS IN. THOUGHT IS
THAT PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO
WAS NOT GOING TO MAKE INCREASES IN POPS...BUT DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS IN AREA. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIT OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SO DID INSERT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER.
AS FAR AS WINDS GO...THE NORTHWESTERLY SWITCH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN THAT
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN SPEEDS...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE HAD BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND ADV LEVEL SPEEDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE DATA CONTINUED ITS
DOWNWARD TREND FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AND WITHOUT AN AREA OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES. SOME LOCATIONS...ESP IN THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA...MAY
COME CLOSE...SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN
EYE ON.
KEPT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT DRY AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA...BUT AM CONCERNED AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES MAY
TRY TO LINGER INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL LET DAY
SHIFT SEE HOW PRECIP TRENDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND ADD A
MENTION IF NECESSARY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT
LOOKING TO FALL INTO THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL
KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. THE SUNSHINE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION STARTS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MIXING SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DEEP. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST DEW POINTS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWERS TO AROUND
20 PERCENT AND WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA
SATURDAY. SATURDAY DURING THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL COOLER AGAIN WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE
ECMWF AND DURING THIS TIME THE GFS HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0
DEG C IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS WARMER AND
LOOKS LIKE THE 0 DEG C LINE SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA. SINCE IT
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF APRIL...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND AT
ANY TIME THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT THE GRI TERMINAL WILL GIVE
WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 25 MPH...AND GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TERMINAL BEING AFFECTED IS ON THE LOW SIDE...SO KEPT MENTION AS VC
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
334 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE MAINLY WITHIN
BANK RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME MINOR ICE JAM RELATED
FLOODING POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL
BRIEFLY RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS HEADING
INTO LAKE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT MONDAY...LOOKING AT A WET AND BREEZY EVENING AND
NIGHT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON PUSHES INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
RAIN HAS MADE IT ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS SYRACUSE NEW YORK AS OF 230
PM AND WILL CONTINUE ITS STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD AND OVERSPREADING
MUCH OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 8PM AND THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 10PM. MOST WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 8PM AND 4AM WITH INITIAL PUSH OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE SHEARED OFF TO SOUTH AND EAST OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MORE CLOSELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. THUS LOOKING AT ABOUT 0.5-0.75" ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT...0.5-1.0" ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH ONLY 0.25-0.50"
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT. SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE
AREAS WILL SEE THE LEAST RAINFALL (WESTERN SLOPES...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM). CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER EITHER GIVEN SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE (<50 J/KG). THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOW-MELT
AND LINGERING ICE ON AREA RIVERS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOOD
ISSUES...SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT OF A FACTOR OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL JET OF 65-75 KNOTS AT 850MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 925MB MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND 25-35 MPH IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SOME CHANNELLING. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT AS STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION. THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER GAP WIND FLOW
WITH INVERSION LOCATED BELOW THE MOUNTAINTOP...AS NOTED BY LOW
FROUDE NUMBERS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INITIALLY AS PRECIPITATION MOVES
INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY 38-43F. NOT EXPECTING IT TO FALL ANY FURTHER
WITH STRONG SOUTH FLOW AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE.
WILL EVEN LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 40S AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES.
AS THE RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 4AM...MAY SEE PERIODS OF
LINGERING DRIZZLE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LASTING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DRY SLOT MOVING IN ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL START IN THE DRY SLOT WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT BACK TO THE WEST. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHILE IN THE DRY SLOT...MAY
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING...WHERE MIXING INCREASES AND SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE...WITH HIGHS NUDGING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT. SHOULD SEE 45-55F ELSEWHERE...COOLEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LIES...CLOSER TO LOW
TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT QUICK MOISTURE SURGE PRE-
FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS NUDGING CLOSE TO 50F IN A FEW AREAS. THIS
MAY LEAD TO SOME WEAK SURFACE-BASED CAPE (<100 J/KG) WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL AND GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH CONTINUE.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN. LOOKING FOR LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
MORNING CLOUDS AND LINGERING NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO GRADUAL CLEARING DURING WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST LATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR OUR
REGION AS SPRING WILL BE FELT IN FULL FORCE BY LATER IN THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST GLOBAL DETEMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REMAIN
LARGELY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL LEAN HEAVILY
TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLENDED SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL ADVERTISE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER THEN
RETURNS BY FRIDAY WITH MEAN H5 HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW EVOLVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A RENEWED SHOWER THREAT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60...THOUGH EVEN MILDER SUN/MON (60S) AS MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SLOWLY ADVANCING GREAT LAKES FRONT. INDEED...IF
GFS/EURO PROGGED 925 HPA TEMPS OF +15C DO OCCUR ON MONDAY...SOME
SPOTS COULD BE LOOKING AT READINGS NEARING 70F. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY 35 TO 45...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT (25 TO
35)...AND WARMER (40S) BY SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER DEEPER SOUTHERLY
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. CIGS INITIALLY VFR THROUGH 00Z...LOWERING TO A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR 00-06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR THEREAFTER. MAIN FOCUS OF STEADIER
RAINFALLWILL OCCUR IN THE 00-12Z TIME FRAME...AFTER WHICH PCPN
TRENDS MORE SCATTERED/SHOWERY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR TO OCCUR
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS...MAINLY DURING THE 08-15Z TIME FRAME ON
TUESDAY. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF 40-60 KT OFF THE DECK COULD PROVE PROBLEMATIC...BUT
CONFIDENCE ONLY AVERAGE ON HOW MUCH OF THIS MIXES DOWN. ALSO A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS OFFERED BY LATEST RAP PROGS.
NONETHELESS...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE SOUTHEASTERLY LLWS
FROM 40-50 KT AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. LIGHT RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. MORNING IFR/MVFR...TRENDING VFR
WITH OCCNL MVFR THEREAFTER.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
THURSDAY.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATE IN BANK RIVER RISES WITH ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY CREATE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING LATE
TONIGHT...TUESDAY...AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES MELTING THE SNOW PACK (SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OF
0.75-1.25" MELTED) AND EXPECTED QPF BETWEEN 0.25-1.0" WILL
CAUSE MODERATE RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS. A FEW ISOLATED ICE JAMS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP AND CAUSE ISOLATED AND MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING.
HOWEVER MAJOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...TABER/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
321 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RACE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING BY SUNSET
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT...ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE MAINLY WITHIN BANK RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME MINOR ICE JAM RELATED FLOODING POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1214 PM EDT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY PEAKING NOW OR
WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. BROUGHT HIGHS UP BY A FEW DEGREES AREA-WIDE AS SOUTH FLOW
AND FULL SUN HAD ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE SHARPLY THIS
MORNING. LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD MID 50S TO LOW 60S. AT 1215 PM...
BURLINGTON HAD REACHED 60 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
NOVEMBER 18TH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 938 AM MONDAY...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN SHARPLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING SOUTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE LARGER VALLEYS WITH
BURLINGTON ALREADY AT 50F. THAT BEING SAID...AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL
LOOK GOOD (50-58 DEGREES) AS WE SHOULD SEE THIS RATE OF INCREASE
TAPER OFF AS CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS (2PM OR SO) BEFORE HOLDING STEADY
OR FALLING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING
SFC LOW PRES TO OUR WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS OUR REGION.
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SHOW 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS QUICKLY SPREADING
ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT AND LLVL WAA. IN ADDITION PWS SURGE BTWN 0.60
AND 0.80 AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE CONTS TO SHOW SE DOWNSLOPING 85H WINDS BTWN 65
AND 75 KNOTS AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...AND TRRN RELATED FEATURES IN THE
QPF FIELDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE CLOSELY TIED WITH
HEAVIEST PRECIP...WHICH WL LIMIT MIXING BUT STILL COULD SEE GUSTS
TO 40 MPH OR SO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV BTWN 03Z-09Z TONIGHT.
THIS WL RESULT IN THE TYPICAL TRRN IMPACTED QPF FIELDS WITH
HIGHEST VALUES BTWN 0.50 AND 0.75" ACRS THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS.
ELSEWHERE...QPF ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV WL BE SIMILAR TO OUR
LAST EVENT...BTWN 0.10 AND 0.30". A FEW LOCATIONS ACRS THE SLV
COULD APPROACH AN INCH...BUT GIVEN QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE BY THE MODELS.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TWO HEAVIEST QPF FIELDS
SPLITTING OUR CWA...EITHER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL
DYNAMICS AND BETTER 25H JET OR TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE PWS ARE
HIGHER AND NOSE OF LLVL JET ENHANCES THE MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE
ATLANTIC. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...NOT ANTICIPATING MANY HYDRO
ISSUES ON TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE RISES
FROM SNOW MELT TODAY AND EXPECTED QPF THRU TUESDAY...AND MAYBE AN
ISOLATED ICE JAM OR TWO...WHICH COULD CREATE SOME MINOR LOW LYING
FLOODING. THE DURATION OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE BTWN 3 AND 6 HRS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT QUICKLY ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION AND PRECIP BECMS SCATTERED. TEMPS WL HOLD IN THE M/U 30S
NEK/CENTRAL VT/DACKS TO LOWER 40S CPV/SLV/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRNT. EXPECTING ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
BOUNDARY BTWN 15Z AND 21Z TUESDAY...BUT OVERALL RIBBON OF MID LVL
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND BEST DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR NORTH. LIKE THE
IDEA OF PREVIOUS FCST WITH REGARDS TO MENTIONING
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PLACEMENT OF DRY SLOT. WL TRY TO USE
CHC/LIKELY SHOWER WORDING WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS.
ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.15 ON TUESDAY.
TEMPS WL CONT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT...EVEN ACRS THE
MID/UPPER ELEVATIONS...SO RIVERS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. COOLER
WEATHER ARRIVES ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDS.
WEDS WL BE MUCH COOLER WITH CYCLONIC NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW AND LLVL
CAA CONTINUING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF
MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 800MB WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF STRATO CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACRS OUR CWA. WL MENTION CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN
GREENS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BTWN -10C AND -12C ON
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE U20S TO M30S MTNS AND U30S TO
L40S VALLEYS. WARMEST TEMPS WL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR OUR
REGION AS SPRING WILL BE FELT IN FULL FORCE BY LATER IN THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST GLOBAL DETEMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REMAIN
LARGELY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL LEAN HEAVILY
TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLENDED SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL ADVERTISE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER THEN
RETURNS BY FRIDAY WITH MEAN H5 HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW EVOLVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A RENEWED SHOWER THREAT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60...THOUGH EVEN MILDER SUN/MON (60S) AS MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SLOWLY ADVANCING GREAT LAKES FRONT. INDEED...IF
GFS/EURO PROGGED 925 HPA TEMPS OF +15C DO OCCUR ON MONDAY...SOME
SPOTS COULD BE LOOKING AT READINGS NEARING 70F. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY 35 TO 45...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT (25 TO
35)...AND WARMER (40S) BY SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER DEEPER SOUTHERLY
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. CIGS INITIALLY VFR THROUGH 00Z...LOWERING TO A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR 00-06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR THEREAFTER. MAIN FOCUS OF STEADIER
RAINFALLWILL OCCUR IN THE 00-12Z TIME FRAME...AFTER WHICH PCPN
TRENDS MORE SCATTERED/SHOWERY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR TO OCCUR
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS...MAINLY DURING THE 08-15Z TIME FRAME ON
TUESDAY. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF 40-60 KT OFF THE DECK COULD PROVE PROBLEMATIC...BUT
CONFIDENCE ONLY AVERAGE ON HOW MUCH OF THIS MIXES DOWN. ALSO A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS OFFERED BY LATEST RAP PROGS.
NONETHELESS...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE SOUTHEASTERLY LLWS
FROM 40-50 KT AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. LIGHT RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. MORNING IFR/MVFR...TRENDING VFR
WITH OCCNL MVFR THEREAFTER.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
THURSDAY.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATE IN BANK RIVER RISES WITH ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY CREATE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY INTO
WEDS. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES MELTING THE SNOW PACK AND
EXPECTED QPF BTWN 0.25 AND 0.75 WL CAUSE MODERATE RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS. HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR FLOODING
TO OCCUR...BUT SEVERAL ICE JAMS MAY DEVELOP AND CAUSE ISOLATED AND
MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING ON TUESDAY INTO WEDS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
137 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RACE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING BY SUNSET
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT...ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE MAINLY WITHIN BANK RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME MINOR ICE JAM RELATED FLOODING POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1214 PM EDT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY PEAKING NOW OR
WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. BROUGHT HIGHS UP BY A FEW DEGREES AREA-WIDE AS SOUTH FLOW
AND FULL SUN HAD ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE SHARPLY THIS
MORNING. LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD MID 50S TO LOW 60S. AT 1215 PM...
BURLINGTON HAD REACHED 60 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
NOVEMBER 18TH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 938 AM MONDAY...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN SHARPLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING SOUTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE LARGER VALLEYS WITH
BURLINGTON ALREADY AT 50F. THAT BEING SAID...AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL
LOOK GOOD (50-58 DEGREES) AS WE SHOULD SEE THIS RATE OF INCREASE
TAPER OFF AS CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS (2PM OR SO) BEFORE HOLDING STEADY
OR FALLING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING
SFC LOW PRES TO OUR WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS OUR REGION.
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SHOW 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS QUICKLY SPREADING
ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT AND LLVL WAA. IN ADDITION PWS SURGE BTWN 0.60
AND 0.80 AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE CONTS TO SHOW SE DOWNSLOPING 85H WINDS BTWN 65
AND 75 KNOTS AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...AND TRRN RELATED FEATURES IN THE
QPF FIELDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE CLOSELY TIED WITH
HEAVIEST PRECIP...WHICH WL LIMIT MIXING BUT STILL COULD SEE GUSTS
TO 40 MPH OR SO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV BTWN 03Z-09Z TONIGHT.
THIS WL RESULT IN THE TYPICAL TRRN IMPACTED QPF FIELDS WITH
HIGHEST VALUES BTWN 0.50 AND 0.75" ACRS THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS.
ELSEWHERE...QPF ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV WL BE SIMILAR TO OUR
LAST EVENT...BTWN 0.10 AND 0.30". A FEW LOCATIONS ACRS THE SLV
COULD APPROACH AN INCH...BUT GIVEN QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE BY THE MODELS.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TWO HEAVIEST QPF FIELDS
SPLITTING OUR CWA...EITHER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL
DYNAMICS AND BETTER 25H JET OR TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE PWS ARE
HIGHER AND NOSE OF LLVL JET ENHANCES THE MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE
ATLANTIC. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...NOT ANTICIPATING MANY HYDRO
ISSUES ON TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE RISES
FROM SNOW MELT TODAY AND EXPECTED QPF THRU TUESDAY...AND MAYBE AN
ISOLATED ICE JAM OR TWO...WHICH COULD CREATE SOME MINOR LOW LYING
FLOODING. THE DURATION OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE BTWN 3 AND 6 HRS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT QUICKLY ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION AND PRECIP BECMS SCATTERED. TEMPS WL HOLD IN THE M/U 30S
NEK/CENTRAL VT/DACKS TO LOWER 40S CPV/SLV/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRNT. EXPECTING ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
BOUNDARY BTWN 15Z AND 21Z TUESDAY...BUT OVERALL RIBBON OF MID LVL
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND BEST DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR NORTH. LIKE THE
IDEA OF PREVIOUS FCST WITH REGARDS TO MENTIONING
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PLACEMENT OF DRY SLOT. WL TRY TO USE
CHC/LIKELY SHOWER WORDING WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS.
ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.15 ON TUESDAY.
TEMPS WL CONT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT...EVEN ACRS THE
MID/UPPER ELEVATIONS...SO RIVERS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. COOLER
WEATHER ARRIVES ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDS.
WEDS WL BE MUCH COOLER WITH CYCLONIC NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW AND LLVL
CAA CONTINUING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF
MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 800MB WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF STRATO CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACRS OUR CWA. WL MENTION CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN
GREENS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BTWN -10C AND -12C ON
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE U20S TO M30S MTNS AND U30S TO
L40S VALLEYS. WARMEST TEMPS WL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIDGE AXIS THEN
MOVES EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.
RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH BRISK RETURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C BY DAYS END. THERE WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE
WITH POPS ANYWHERE FROM 40-60 PERCENT WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE QPF
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. LOOKING AT MIN
TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
LATEST RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING SATURDAY. GFS INDICATING HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH SUNSHINE...DRY CONDITIONS AND
RAPIDLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LATEST ECMWF HINTS AT MORE CLOUDS
AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DUE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HAVE
GONE WITH THE DRY GFS SOLUTION...MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY FROM
EARLIER FORECAST.
A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
REACH +6 TO +10C WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S. CONTINUED WITH
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...THOUGH
ANY RAIN WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY GIVEN AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. CIGS INITIALLY VFR THROUGH 00Z...LOWERING TO A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR 00-06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR THEREAFTER. MAIN FOCUS OF STEADIER
RAINFALLWILL OCCUR IN THE 00-12Z TIME FRAME...AFTER WHICH PCPN
TRENDS MORE SCATTERED/SHOWERY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR TO OCCUR
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS...MAINLY DURING THE 08-15Z TIME FRAME ON
TUESDAY. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF 40-60 KT OFF THE DECK COULD PROVE PROBLEMATIC...BUT
CONFIDENCE ONLY AVERAGE ON HOW MUCH OF THIS MIXES DOWN. ALSO A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS OFFERED BY LATEST RAP PROGS.
NONETHELESS...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE SOUTHEASTERLY LLWS
FROM 40-50 KT AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. LIGHT RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. MORNING IFR/MVFR...TRENDING VFR
WITH OCCNL MVFR THEREAFTER.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
THURSDAY.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATE IN BANK RIVER RISES WITH ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY CREATE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY INTO
WEDS. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES MELTING THE SNOW PACK AND
EXPECTED QPF BTWN 0.25 AND 0.75 WL CAUSE MODERATE RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS. HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR FLOODING
TO OCCUR...BUT SEVERAL ICE JAMS MAY DEVELOP AND CAUSE ISOLATED AND
MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING ON TUESDAY INTO WEDS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
929 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SWING THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...
A LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY WED...WHILE A TRAILING
ONE WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE SAME AREAS WED AFT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PAIR OF TROUGHS HAS SUPPORTED AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF 5-10
THOUSAND FT STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE OH...TN...AND LOWER MS
VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PAST AFT-EVE.
THOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS STILL VERY SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO JUST A
COUPLE OF THOUSAND FT LAYER BELOW H7 IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
PER 00Z RNK AND GSO RAOB DATA...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
MOISTURE/SATURATION WILL DEEPEN INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE OVER
EAST-CENTRAL NC...ALBEIT ONLY BRIEFLY...OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH
OF A SIGNAL FROM NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING FROM RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP...TO WARRANT A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SOLID
RAIN CHANCES (BUT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT. THIS LIGHT RAIN...THE BACK EDGE OF WHICH
MAY EDGE WEST TO NEAR RALEIGH AND ROANOKE RAPIDS...WILL THEN MOVE
QUICKLY EAST INTO THE NC COASTAL AREAS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
LOWS...AMIDST ONLY WEAK CAA...AND HINDERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
THICKENING-DEEPENING CLOUD COVER...ARE LIKELY TO ONLY DIP INTO THE
MID 40S OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE 0ZZ SFC DEWPOINTS WERE
RUNNING IN THE MID 30S...TO LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF
THE EARLIER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A FINAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...MAINLY BETWEEN AROUND
850 AND 500 MB REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
NOTABLE DRYING ABOVE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD AND SOME
MODEST SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY. BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE
TO 850 LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9 DEG/KM WED AFTERNOON WITH 850 TO 700
OR 500 MB LAPSE RATES RANGING BETWEEN 7 AND 8 DEG C/KM. SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIMIT
SURFACE AND MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES TO LESS THAN 100 J/KG. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS TOWARD MIDDAY AND THEN DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND UPDRAFTS LIKELY WONT
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT THIS SHOULD BE WATCHED AS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD INCLUDE SOME SMALL
HAIL WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5-6KFT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CHILLY. RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY FAVORABLE. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
STABILIZED AND MODERATED SLIGHTLY FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WHEN IT
SUGGESTED A POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. MOST RECENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR GREENSBORO HAD A
LOW TEMP OF 41 FROM THE OPERATIONAL RUN...40 FROM A 21 MEMBER MEAN
AND A COLDEST MEMBER WITH A LOW OF 39. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY FROST
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY...INITIATING
A WARMING TREND WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZE. RISING HEIGHTS SHOWING A
WARMUP OF AROUND 3 DEGREES...TAKING US UP TO 70-75 UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. MILD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WARMING TREND CONTINUES
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 75 TO 80 AFTER A MORNING MIN IN THE
UPPER 40S.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL NUDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH AND INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MEAGER...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF STATES...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WEAKENING FRONT STALLS OVER OR SOUTH OF
THE AREA. SATURDAY MORNING MINS WILL BE MILD...IN THE LOWER
50S...WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY PRODUCING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REESTABLISH THE WARM AIRMASS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WITH DEEPER AND STRENGTHENING FLOW
AHEAD OF UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE LOWER PLAINS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE WEST SUNDAY AS HIGHS AGAIN REACH 75 TO
80...AS THE UPPER TROF SHARPENS...THERE WILL BE A SOLID CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MONDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS 75 TO 80.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIVERGENCE AS TO THE EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURAL DETAILS OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
REGARDLESS...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL BE ON THE RISE
AS THE SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF FEATURES WILL BE PRESENT WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE STRONGER CONVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE...UPPER DIFFLUENCE...LOW
LEVEL JET >45KT...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS LINE UP IN LATER RUNS.
HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO HEAVY CLOUD COVERAGE AND
RAIN...IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AT
KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD SHOWERS
MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS. REGARDLESS...CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL YIELD CIGS MAINLY IN THE 4-6 KFT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODES INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...THUS HAVE INCLUDED MENTION IN THE TAFS DURING THAT TIME.
SHOULD ANY OF THESE SHOWERS OCCUR OVER A TERMINAL IT IS POSSIBLE TO
SEE CONDITIONS LOWER INTO THE LOW END VFR TO MVFR RANGE. -KC
LOOKING AHEAD: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC WEDNESDAY TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS AND WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WIL PRODUCE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PROLONGED
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. -BLAES
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...KC/BLAES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
354 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THESE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MAINLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY WEATHER BY MID WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...EXPECTING A BUSY EVENING AS TORNADO WATCH #68
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM FOR THE COASTAL REGIONS OF THE CWA INCLUDING
GEORGETOWN...HORRY...COLUMBUS...BLADEN...BRUNSWICK...NEW
HANOVER...AND PENDER COUNTIES.
VERY INTRIGUING SYNOPTIC SETUP THIS AFTERNOON...UNLIKE ONE EXPECTED
IN APRIL. COLD AIR WEDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE PEE DEE REGION OF
SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN...SURPRISINGLY...STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
DAY...ACTING TO DISPLACE THE WARM FRONT LOCALLY. WARM FRONT HAD
REACHED AS FAR NW AS I-95 JUST A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT THE WEDGE FRONT
HAS NOW PUSHED THIS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO HORRY AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES. NW WINDS...INCREASED CLOUDS...AND PRESSURE RISES HAVE
ACCOMPANIED THIS WEDGE FRONT...AND TEMPS HAVE CRASHED 20 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME PLACES DROPPING 10+
DEGREES IN JUST ONE HOUR. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS STABILIZING THE AREA
AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SEVERE IN WX GRIDS FOR ANYWHERE FIRMLY
WITHIN THE WEDGE. LOCATIONS TO THE EAST...THOSE WITHIN THE TORNADO
WATCH...REMAIN UNSTABLE...BUT AS THE WEDGE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TOO MAY STABILIZE...REMOVING MUCH OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. NONETHELESS...AS CONVECTION BLOSSOMS ALONG THE
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AND WITHIN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS...ENHANCED
HELICITY IN A THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL RISE TOWARDS
50 KTS THIS EVENING...SO ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN THESE STRONGER WINDS...POTENTIALLY CREATING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW LONG THE WEDGE WILL PERSIST...BUT
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS SUBTLE PRESSURE DROPS IN THE WEST. EXPECT
THE WEDGE TO WEAKEN AS THE 5H TROUGH AMPLIFIES...CREATING ENHANCED
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH SHOULD VENTILATE OUT THE HIGHER PRESSURES AT
THE SURFACE. THIS WILL HELP THE WARM FRONT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS
MODELED WELL BY THE RUC SOUNDINGS AND SOME OF THE HRRR
GUIDANCE...AND IN TURN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT IN THE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT EVEN CRACKED 60 TODAY. IN FACT...LOWS TONIGHT WELL
INLAND MAY BE REACHED EARLY...BUT TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND INCREASED SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT...AND MANY
AREAS WILL RECEIVE 1-2" OF RAINFALL INTO TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...AND HAVE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POP ALONG THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA UNTIL DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE FIRST PART OF TUE LOOKS WETTEST ALONG THE
COAST AS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY NOT PUSH OFFSHORE UNTIL TUE
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP WITH
HEATING OF THE DAY TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND N. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S OF THE AREA
TUE NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD LARGELY END THE RISK FOR CONVECTION. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFF THE COAST ON WED. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
BE ARRIVING UPSTAIRS...BUT WITH THE INCREASING INFLUX OF DRY
AIR...WILL KEEP POPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THRESHOLD TO ALLOW FOR
THE SMALL RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD WED NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLEST ON WED...MAINLY UPPER
60S. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST WED NIGHT...LOWER TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH MID WEEK. A DEEP NW FLOW OF COLD AND DRY AIR BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WED WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL BUT WARM
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET THE CAA TO BRING TEMPS NEAR 70. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OUT DOWN
CLOSER TO 40. RIDGE WILL BUILD UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO A
WARMING TREND. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS REACH INTO THE
70S ESPECIALLY ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON FRI ALLOWING
FOR A WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA COMING
UP AGAINST RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REACH ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A CHALLENGING TAF PERIOD IS IN STORE AS THE COLD AIR
WEDGE IS REASSERTING ITSELF OVER OUR INLAND ZONES. NORTHWEST WINDS
AT KFLO AND KLBT HAVE BROUGHT IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR...WHICH IS
STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE AND LOWERING CHANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION INLAND TODAY. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING WHERE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PERSIST AT THE COASTAL TERMS TODAY...WHILE
NORTHWEST WINDS INLAND SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS CIGS LIKELY LOWER TO IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WARM FRONT WHICH LIFTED WELL NW OF THE WATERS
EARLIER TODAY...IS SLOWLY BEING PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE WATERS...LEAVING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF TURN TO THE NW WITHIN THE INNER WATERS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 KTS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...WHILE VEERING SLIGHTLY
TO THE SW...BECOMING SW AT 15-25 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE
SEAS UPWARD FROM THEIR CURRENT 2-3 FT...TO 5-8 FT LATE TONIGHT.
WHILE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED YET TODAY...STILL
EXPECT THEM TO RETURN THIS EVENING...AND THUS THE ONGOING MWW FOR
SCA REMAINS UNCHANGED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUE WITH 6 FT SEA PERHAPS LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W TUE EVE AND THEN TO NNW BY WED MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL PEAK AROUND 20 KT...STRONGEST TUE INTO WED...THEN
SUBSIDING IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERLY SURGE...TO LESS THAN 10 KT
WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON TUE...UP TO 6 TO 8 FT. SEAS
WILL STEADILY SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD SURGE...TO 3 FT OR
LESS WED NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STRONG N-NW WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WED BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING
SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL
DROP BELOW 3 FT BY WED NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THURS AS THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF SHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
247 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH PARTS
OF THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW...ANALYZED OVER WESTERN KY AT
15Z...WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE WEDGE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN...ADVECTING
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND IMPINGING UPON THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY. THE GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT ACROSS THE
BOUNDARIES IS APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES IN LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE WEDGE REMAIN IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES...AND IF
THE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING...HIGHS FROM THE
TRIAD TO THE TRIANGLE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THAT
WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT CAN ERODE THE
WEDGE...AND IF SO...HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST IT WILL DO SO. OF ALL THE
HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...THE LATEST (15Z) HRRR IS
HANDLING THE CURRENT RAINFALL THE BEST. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE
RAINFALL COVERAGE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...BUT IS MARGINAL AT BEST...WHILE THE BEST BULK SHEAR (40-
50 KTS) AND 0-1 SRH (300-400 M2/S2) IS WITHIN THE WEDGE. POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT/WEDGE BOUNDARY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. IF THE HRRR
RAINFALL FORECAST PANS OUT...THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA COULD GET 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN...LOCALLY HIGHER...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO WHAT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH RECEIVED EARLIER TODAY. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THAT MUCH RAIN FALLS...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS. OVERNIGHT THE
RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AND/OR MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD START TO CROSS
CENTRAL NC AROUND MIDNIGHT. THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OF THESE
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE TIMING
IS NOT FAVORABLE AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THE PRECEDING RAINFALL
WILL ACT TO SUFFICIENTLY STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY ERODE THE WEDGE OVERNIGHT...BUT HOW FAR EAST IT
PROGRESSES BEFORE SUNRISE WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPS. FOR NOW EXPECT
LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO LOW 60S SE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MID MORNING...
EXPECT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE GFS
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF CENTRAL NC UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HEIGHT RISES
TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA UNDER BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALSO FORECAST OVER THE AREA. A
MODEST 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WHILE K INDICES FALL LATE IN THE DAY FROM NEAR 20 TO AROUND ZERO BY
NIGHTFALL. JET SUPPORT BY WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY MODEST 850MB LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS. LIFTED INDICES
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST
KM HARDLY REGISTERS ON THE GFS...1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE
STEEP EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AT OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN
7.5C/KM. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ALOFT IS WEAK...INCREASING
AROUND 700MB BY 00Z...BUT FOR THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THEN...IN THE COOL
TROUGH ALOFT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING STABILITY
WITH AN INCREASING CAP ALOFT DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY
SHOWER DIURNAL IN NATURE. FORTUNATELY...DESPITE THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...WINDS ALOFT TO 700MB ARE MAINLY AT
OR BELOW 25KT...AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN VOLUME...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY VERY GUSTY WIND WITH A SHOWER IS CURRENTLY LOW.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES FOR WEDNESDAY SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
MID 60S...AND WITH THE COOL TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DECOUPLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE...AND
THE AIR MASS BECOMES RATHER DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF KFAY. UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE AT NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL EXISTS...AND HAVE CONTINUED A TREND COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...MOSTLY 37 TO 42. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR
REMAINS EXPECTED...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER
SOME AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT U.S. 64 AND COULD BE ADDED TO
LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING TROUGHINESS ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE GFS IS WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
THE WAVE ALOFT AND THE FRONT...THOUGH BOTH MODELS...IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCREASE SURFACE
RIDGING WEST OVER THE GULF SLIGHTLY SUCH THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE MAY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. REGARDLESS OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES...BOTH MODELS SUPPORT WEAKENING
OF THE FRONT SO THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE LOW AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE DAY WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WILL RETAIN THE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AND
DRIER AIR FORECAST BY THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE WILL KEEP CHANCES BELOW
SLIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENTLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS MONDAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS DUE TO A DEEPER UPPER LOW AS A RESULT OF SOME
PHASING OF MODERATE WAVES IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...INTRODUCING GOOD QPF INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. EVEN THE ECMWF...WITH
A FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC...SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
TWO MONDAY...THOUGH WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST
BEYOND THIS LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
CURRENTLY WILL BE TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND GENERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE SYNOPTIC-SCALE DIFFERENCES IN PARTS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THE MOS GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE MEX AND MEE ARE VERY SIMILAR
AND ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS BASED UPON 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST AROUND 70
THURSDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE REST OF THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S THURSDAY NIGHT...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO LOWS TO AROUND 60 MONDAY
NIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THEN TOWARD
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR
THE BULK OF THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT CEILINGS WILL OCCASIONALLY GO TO MVFR. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN IN MANY AREAS NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AT LEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AT AND JUST
BELOW 2000FT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 40KT. SURFACE WINDS IN MUCH
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST AND WITH A GUSTY
CHARACTER...HIGHEST TOWARD KFAY...BECOMING WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE END OF THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR TUESDAY MORNING TOWARD THE TRIAD AND
KRDU...RISING TO MVFR TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI.
AREAS OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST THREAT OF THUNDER
TOWARD KFAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KCP/DJF
NEAR TERM...KCP
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH LATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...EARLIER FCST UPDATE ON TRACK WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS OVER WRN AND NRN SECTION NEAR WARM
FRONT BNDRY...AND ONLY SCT ACTIVITY FOR REST OF AREA IN SOMEWHAT
DRY-SLOTTED WARM SECTOR. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO 70S ALL BUT OUTER
BANKS WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS...AND DEW POINTS IN 60S INDICATE
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE LOW LVLS. HOWEVER FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WARMING AT 850-900 MB LAYER WHICH WOULD SUPPRESS DEEPER
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH FOCUSING BNDRY TO W AND N OF AREA. THUS
MAIN THREAT OF SVR STILL THIS EVENING.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...UPDATED FOR LOWER POPS REST OF MORNING
THROUGH AFTN OVER SRN 2/3 OF AREA AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS
NRN SECTIONS. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED N TO NEAR KISO-KHSE LINE AND
BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN WITH ISENT LIFT HAS SPREAD MAINLY N OF AREA
EXCEPT FOR ALONG OBX. LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT THIS PCPN TREND
CONTINUING DURING AFTN WITH ONLY SCT COVERAGE IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT
AND MORE WDSPRD ACTIVITY AND PSBLY STRONGER EMBEDDED TSTMS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. SPC CONTINUES SLIGHT RISK ACROSS AREA WITH
DECENT SHEAR BUT CAPE WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL LATE AFTN...THUS
CONTINUE TO THINK SVR THREAT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO EMBEDDED
TSTMS IN PRE-FRONT LINE THIS EVENING.
SLOWER WARM FRONT MOVEMENT WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 70
NRN COASTAL PLAINS AND MID 60S NRN OBX.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM MONDAY...RADAR SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN IS
OCCURRING OFF OF CORE BANKS AND THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS. PER LATEST
3 KM HRRR AND RAP MODEL...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
ABOUT 15Z OR 16Z AS PRECIPITATION HAS TAKEN SOME TIME TO OVERCOME
DRY LOW LAYERS. DEWPOINTS ARE RISING QUICKLY NOW...INTO THE 50S OVER
MOST AREAS...SO RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE BACK NORTH TO ENCOMPASS
OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS HAS THE LOOK OF A CLASSIC
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS CAPE VALUES PEAK AT AROUND 400 J/KG
LATER THIS EVENING WITH MODEST LI VALUES OF AROUND -2.
HOWEVER...GOOD 850-500 MB DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS INDICATED FROM 18Z
TO ABOUT 00Z AND IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED ANY CONVECTION
CAN GET AS TO HOW ELEVATED THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BECOME. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH A SMALL RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE SHEAR VALUES. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE TO 1.5
INCHES BY LATE THIS EVENING. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE 70S EXCEPT 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL WANE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DIMINISH...A THREAT OF SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. HAVE
HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AREA-WIDE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
EASTERN NC EARLY TUES MORNING WITH ORGANIZED PRECIP ENDING FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA. 850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN SW AND WITH THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION...CANNOT
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF HWY 17 WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REMAIN 1365-1375 METERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST TUE NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED WED
MORNING AS IT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NC AND FINALLY OFF THE COAST
BY WED EVENING. PRECIP...CLOUDS...AND LOWERING THICKNESSES WILL
KEEP TEMPS MILD ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S INLAND TO UPPER
50S/60 FOR THE OBX. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU...THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. NICE WX
EXPECTED THU AND FRI WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BY FRI WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT MOVING THROUGH SAT.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...THOUGH
MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE SUN WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
60S/UPPER 70S. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING N OF AREA. SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSTM THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTN AND WILL HANDLE
WITH VCSH MENTION IN TAFS WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. MORE WDSPRD SHOWER
AND SCT TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING EVENING HOURS. GDNC
IS GENERALLY INDICATING IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT THIS
APPEARS OVERDONE WITH CONTINUED WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS AND KEPT
PREVAILING FCST CONDITIONS AS MVFR ALTHOUGH WITH CIGS LOWERED TO 1K
FT AND VSBYS TO 3SM WITH TEMPO PERIOD OF TSTMS 00Z-05Z. SCT-BKN SHRA
THREAT WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING FRONT. SRLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT
INTO THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE
NIGHT...AS PRECIP SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...PRES GRADIENT IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTN...THUS STRONGER SRLY
WINDS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL TONIGHT. ADJUSTED WINDS DOWNWARD
ACCORDINGLY FOR REST OF AFTN BUT NO CHANGE TO SCA HEADLINES WITH
SEAS AROUND 6 FT FOR OUTER PORTIONS OF WATERS...AND STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR ERN PAM SOUND.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM MONDAY...EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AS OF 10Z.
WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM EASTERLY TO MORE S/SW DURING THE DAY AS A
WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ON
ALL WATERS SHOULD BE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATER IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 7 OR 8 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BY MIDDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ALONG THE NC COAST TUES MORNING WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME WEST BY THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED 5-7 FT THROUGH TUES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MON...LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TUE NIGHT INTO WED SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WED...WITH PRED NORTHERLY WINDS
10-15KT GUSTS TO 20KT. SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY...INTO THE EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL LEG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU...MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
VEERING WINDS THU...BECOMING S/SW 10-15KT BY THU EVENING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FRI NIGHT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
10-20KT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH
VEERING WINDS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT TUESDAY
FOR AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...JBM/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC/DAG
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
150 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH LATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...EARLIER FCST UPDATE ON TRACK WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS OVER WRN AND NRN SECTION NEAR WARM
FRONT BNDRY...AND ONLY SCT ACTIVITY FOR REST OF AREA IN SOMEWHAT
DRY-SLOTTED WARM SECTOR. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO 70S ALL BUT OUTER
BANKS WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS...AND DEW POINTS IN 60S INDICATE
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE LOW LVLS. HOWEVER FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WARMING AT 850-900 MB LAYER WHICH WOULD SUPPRESS DEEPER
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH FOCUSING BNDRY TO W AND N OF AREA. THUS
MAIN THREAT OF SVR STILL THIS EVENING.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...UPDATED FOR LOWER POPS REST OF MORNING
THROUGH AFTN OVER SRN 2/3 OF AREA AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS
NRN SECTIONS. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED N TO NEAR KISO-KHSE LINE AND
BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN WITH ISENT LIFT HAS SPREAD MAINLY N OF AREA
EXCEPT FOR ALONG OBX. LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT THIS PCPN TREND
CONTINUING DURING AFTN WITH ONLY SCT COVERAGE IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT
AND MORE WDSPRD ACTIVITY AND PSBLY STRONGER EMBEDDED TSTMS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. SPC CONTINUES SLIGHT RISK ACROSS AREA WITH
DECENT SHEAR BUT CAPE WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL LATE AFTN...THUS
CONTINUE TO THINK SVR THREAT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO EMBEDDED
TSTMS IN PRE-FRONT LINE THIS EVENING.
SLOWER WARM FRONT MOVMENT WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 70
NRN COASTAL PLAINS AND MID 60S NRN OBX.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM MONDAY...RADAR SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN IS
OCCURRING OFF OF CORE BANKS AND THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS. PER LATEST
3 KM HRRR AND RAP MODEL...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
ABOUT 15Z OR 16Z AS PRECIPITATION HAS TAKEN SOME TIME TO OVERCOME
DRY LOW LAYERS. DEWPOINTS ARE RISING QUICKLY NOW...INTO THE 50S OVER
MOST AREAS...SO RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE BACK NORTH TO ENCOMPASS
OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS HAS THE LOOK OF A CLASSIC
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS CAPE VALUES PEAK AT AROUND 400 J/KG
LATER THIS EVENING WITH MODEST LI VALUES OF AROUND -2.
HOWEVER...GOOD 850-500 MB DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS INDICATED FROM 18Z
TO ABOUT 00Z AND IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED ANY CONVECTION
CAN GET AS TO HOW ELEVATED THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BECOME. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH A SMALL RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE SHEAR VALUES. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE TO 1.5
INCHES BY LATE THIS EVENING. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE 70S EXCEPT 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL WANE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DIMINISH...A THREAT OF SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. HAVE
HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AREA-WIDE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM MON...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
EASTERN NC EARLY TUES MORNING WITH ORGANIZED PRECIP ENDING FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA. 850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN SW AND WITH THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION...CANNOT
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF HWY 17 WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REMAIN 1365-1375 METERS.
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SHOWERS EARLY TUES NIGHT THOUGH
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO WED AS CHANNELED
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED WED
MORNING AS IT TRAVERSES EASTERN NC AND FINALLY OFF THE COAST BY
WED EVENING. PRECIP...CLOUDS...AND LOWERING THICKNESSES WILL KEEP
TEMPS MILD ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S INLAND TO UPPER 50S OBX.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
SUBSTANTIAL COLUMN DRYING. AT THE SFC...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 40 INLAND...WITH
MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY TREND CONTINUES THURS AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE.
HIGHS NEAR CLIMO...GENERALLY AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW 60S OBX. WITH
THE HIGH OFFSHORE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...RETURN SW FLOW WILL ENSURE
ALLOWING FOR BUILDING THICKNESSES AND INCREASING MOISTURE. HIGHS
WILL BUILD INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FRI INLAND TO UPPER 60S OBX. 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW LATE FRI NIGHT THOUGH LOCATION AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXITS
BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF IS DELAYED BY ABOUT 12 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE GFS...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. SURFACE HIGH TAKES BACK OVER SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SUN AFTERNOON. TEMPS AGAIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO SAT AND SUN...MID UPPER 70S INLAND TO 60S OBX.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING N OF AREA. SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSTM THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTN AND WILL HANDLE
WITH VCSH MENTION IN TAFS WITH LIMITED COVERAGE. MORE WDSPRD SHOWER
AND SCT TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING EVENING HOURS. GDNC
IS GENERALLY INDICATING IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT THIS
APPEARS OVERDONE WITH CONTINUED WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS AND KEPT
PREVAILING FCST CONDITIONS AS MVFR ALTHOUGH WITH CIGS LOWERED TO 1K
FT AND VSBYS TO 3SM WITH TEMPO PERIOD OF TSTMS 00Z-05Z. SCT-BKN SHRA
THREAT WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING FRONT. SRLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT
INTO THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...AVIATION CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUES TO MOSTLY VFR AS
PRECIP SHIFTS OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES
EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CIGS WILL
BE IN THE VFR CAT. PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THURS AND FRI AS
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...PRES GRADIENT IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTN...THUS STRONGER SRLY WINDS WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL TONIGHT. ADJUSTED WINDS DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY FOR REST
OF AFTN BUT NO CHANGE TO SCA HEADLINES WITH SEAS AROUND 6 FT FOR
OUTER PORTIONS OF WATERS...AND STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25
KT FOR ERN PAM SOUND.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM MONDAY...EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AS OF 10Z.
WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM EASTERLY TO MORE S/SW DURING THE DAY AS A
WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ON
ALL WATERS SHOULD BE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATER IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 7 OR 8 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BY MIDDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM MON...COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ALONG THE NC COAST TUES
MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME WEST BY
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED 5-7 FT
THROUGH TUES THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE TUES NIGHT WITH INCREASING N TO NW WINDS BEHIND IT. THESE
WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE SCA SEAS ALREADY IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS THURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA PASSES THROUGH EASTERN NC. NW WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE THURS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASING TO
10-15 KT ON FRI WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT TUESDAY
FOR AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
122 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN ITS
WAKE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH THIS AFTERNOON
UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ALIGNED WEST OF THE CWA IS
STRENGTHENING...AS EVIDENCED BY BOTH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW FROM
FLORENCE...TO MARION...TO LUMBERTON...AND PRESSURE RISES FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING
CLOUD BASES AS WELL. WEDGE IS REASSERTING ITSELF SO MUCH THAT WARM
FRONT IS BEING KICKED BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST...A NEGATIVE INDICATOR
FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. RUC SOUNDINGS ARE THE ONLY GUIDANCE
PROVIDING ANY HELP WITH THIS SITUATION THIS AFTN...AND HAVE CUT BACK
ON TEMPS BY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES WEST OF I-95...AND ALSO REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
THAT THE WEDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS EVE...LIKELY THROUGH
VENTILATION ALOFT THANKS TO INCREASING DIFFLUENCE DRIVING LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURES...BUT BY THEN IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE WEST. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA STILL
COULD SEE SEVERE THIS EVE AND HAVE LEFT +TRW IN WEATHER GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS FROM 1100 AM BELOW:
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY REMAINS ON TAP AS A STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
WARM FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHWARD IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THIS IS CLEARLY EVIDENT BOTH BY
A WIND SHIFT...AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM SE TO
NW. DEWPOINTS IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE CWA REMAINS IN THE UPPER
40S...WITH MID 60S NOW ENCROACHING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH NORTHWARD DUE TO THE REMAINING
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
WEST...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CROSS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY THIS
EVENING.
AS THE AREA BECOMES WARM-SECTORED...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE...SERVING AS THE FUEL FOR A DYNAMIC LINE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A
RACE...HOWEVER...BETWEEN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THIS IS BECAUSE THE AREAS WHICH WILL RECEIVE TSTMS
FIRST...FAR WESTERN ZONES...WILL RECEIVE THE LEAST
INSTABILITY...WHILE THE EASTERN ZONES WILL BE UNSTABLE BUT BEGIN TO
LOSE DIURNAL AFFECTS. SBCAPE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RISE TO 600-1000
J/KG...COMBINED WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND 0-1 KM
HELICITY OF 100-150 M2/S2. AT THE SAME TIME...INCREASING JET-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KT JET...AND 850MB
WINDS RISING TO 2-3 SD`S ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE SOUTH WILL INTERACT
WITH THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS TOGETHER
SUGGEST AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS BOTH THERMODYNAMICALLY AND
KINEMATICALLY FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS THIS EVENING. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK IN THE SWODY1...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EMBEDDED WITHIN
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A SQUALL LINE...TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED
LOCALLY DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL
HELICITY. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA WILL GET "WATCHED" AT SOME
POINT TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING IS FROM LATE AFTERNOON WELL
WEST...TO A FEW HOURS AFTER DARK IN THE EAST.
THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING...MOST
LIKELY IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PWATS RISING TO 1.5-1.7
INCHES AND 700MB FETCH DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN CONVECTION. WIDESPREAD QPF OF 1-2" IS
EXPECTED...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS
MAY BE MORE LIKELY THANKS TO FLOW BECOMING ALIGNED WITH THE BOUNDARY
AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS TO THE WEST.
AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE...A SECOND
ROUND OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...AND WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND...MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY...AND AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE WARM FRONT AND RESIDUAL
WEDGE...BUT EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE FAR
EAST...BUT RISING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S FAR NW WHERE THE WEDGE
BREAKS DOWN SOONEST. MINS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...FALLING ONLY TO AROUND 60...LOW 60S NEAR THE
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
THE MID SOUTH EARLY ON MON AND THEN UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
STRUGGLE TO ERODE A CHILLY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND IT
MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEDGE. INITIALLY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR RAINFALL. THEN WE
WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. CURRENTLY...CAPE VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH 400-600 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
AND MAY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONT AT UP TO 40-45 KT. IT IS
POSSIBLE A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE 45 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO IMPINGE
ON THE AREA...ESPECIALLY INLAND...ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD
POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE SHEAR VALUES WOULD NOT PRECLUDE
AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SEEMS HIGHLY PROBABLE
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 1.75 INCHES. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL EXIST MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...
ANY REPETITIVE CONVECTION COULD EASILY PUT DOWN AN INCH AND A
HALF OR MORE.
EVEN ON TUE INTO TUE EVE...THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND CHILLY AIR BEGINS
TO ARRIVE ALOFT. FINALLY THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST LATE TUE NIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING AND THIS WILL END THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AS MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR SWEEPS BACK INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH MID WEEK. A DEEP NW FLOW OF COLD AND DRY AIR BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WED WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL BUT WARM
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET THE CAA TO BRING TEMPS NEAR 70. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OUT DOWN
CLOSER TO 40. RIDGE WILL BUILD UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO A
WARMING TREND. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS REACH INTO THE
70S ESPECIALLY ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON FRI ALLOWING
FOR A WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA COMING
UP AGAINST RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REACH ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A CHALLENGING TAF PERIOD IS IN STORE AS THE COLD AIR
WEDGE IS REASSERTING ITSELF OVER OUR INLAND ZONES. NORTHWEST WINDS
AT KFLO AND KLBT HAVE BROUGHT IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR...WHICH IS
STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE AND LOWERING CHANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION INLAND TODAY. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES
FOR TSRA WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PERSIST AT THE COASTAL TERMS TODAY...WHILE
NORTHWEST WINDS INLAND SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
CIGS LIKELY LOWER TO IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE WATERS
THIS MORNING...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE SW
THROUGH THE EVENING. SPEEDS THIS MORNING AT THE BUOYS OF 10-15 KTS
WILL RISE TO 15-25 KTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD SINCE THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT CROSS THE WATERS UNTIL
TUESDAY. WHILE SEAS PRESENTLY ARE 2-4 FT...A RAPID RISE IS EXPECTED
THIS EVE ON THE INCREASING WINDS...AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE
ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS...TO 5-8 FT TONIGHT. THUS...THE ONGOING SCA
REMAINS UNCHANGED.
ADDITIONALLY...ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE WATERS IS
CREATING SOME SEA FOG TODAY...AND A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR VISIBILITY OF ONE-HALF TO TWO MILES THROUGH THIS
EVE. LOCAL CAMERAS AND REPORTS FROM LIFEGUARDS SUGGEST THE MOST
DENSE FOG IS ALONG THE EASTERN CAPE FEAR COAST...BUT ALL THE WATERS
SHOULD SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY THIS AFTN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE DAY TUE. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MON...
AND WITH ITS PASSAGE...WINDS WILL VEER TO S AND REMAIN FROM THE S
UNTIL A COLD FRONT GAINS PROXIMITY TUE...AT WHICH TIME THEY WILL
VEER TO THE SW. A SHIFT TO THE W AND NW IS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY WED MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED...PERHAPS UP TO 30 KT MON NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF MON. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING
THROUGH MON AND WILL PEAK AT 6 TO 9 FT MON NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUE AND LIKELY TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STRONG N-NW WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WED BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING
SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL
DROP BELOW 3 FT BY WED NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THURS AS THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF SHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...JDW/RGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1109 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH LATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...UPDATED FOR LOWER POPS REST OF MORNING
THROUGH AFTN OVER SRN 2/3 OF AREA AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS
NRN SECTIONS. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED N TO NEAR KISO-KHSE LINE AND
BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN WITH ISENT LIFT HAS SPREAD MAINLY N OF AREA
EXCEPT FOR ALONG OBX. LATEST MESO MODELS SUPPORT THIS PCPN TREND
CONTINUING DURING AFTN WITH ONLY SCT COVERAGE IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT
AND MORE WDSPRD ACTIVITY AND PSBLY STRONGER EMBEDDED TSTMS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING. SPC CONTINUES SLIGHT RISK ACROSS AREA WITH
DECENT SHEAR BUT CAPE WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL LATE AFTN...THUS
CONTINUE TO THINK SVR THREAT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO EMBEDDED
TSTMS IN PRE-FRONT LINE THIS EVENING.
SLOWER WARM FRONT MOVMENT WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 70
NRN COASTAL PLAINS AND MID 60S NRN OBX.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM MONDAY...RADAR SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN IS
OCCURRING OFF OF CORE BANKS AND THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS. PER LATEST
3 KM HRRR AND RAP MODEL...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
ABOUT 15Z OR 16Z AS PRECIPITATION HAS TAKEN SOME TIME TO OVERCOME
DRY LOW LAYERS. DEWPOINTS ARE RISING QUICKLY NOW...INTO THE 50S OVER
MOST AREAS...SO RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE BACK NORTH TO ENCOMPASS
OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS HAS THE LOOK OF A CLASSIC
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS CAPE VALUES PEAK AT AROUND 400 J/KG
LATER THIS EVENING WITH MODEST LI VALUES OF AROUND -2.
HOWEVER...GOOD 850-500 MB DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS INDICATED FROM 18Z
TO ABOUT 00Z AND IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED ANY CONVECTION
CAN GET AS TO HOW ELEVATED THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BECOME. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH A SMALL RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE SHEAR VALUES. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE TO 1.5
INCHES BY LATE THIS EVENING. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE 70S EXCEPT 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL WANE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DIMINISH...A THREAT OF SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. HAVE
HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AREA-WIDE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM MON...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
EASTERN NC EARLY TUES MORNING WITH ORGANIZED PRECIP ENDING FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA. 850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN SW AND WITH THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION...CANNOT
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF HWY 17 WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REMAIN 1365-1375 METERS.
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SHOWERS EARLY TUES NIGHT THOUGH
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO WED AS CHANNELED
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED WED
MORNING AS IT TRAVERSES EASTERN NC AND FINALLY OFF THE COAST BY
WED EVENING. PRECIP...CLOUDS...AND LOWERING THICKNESSES WILL KEEP
TEMPS MILD ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S INLAND TO UPPER 50S OBX.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
SUBSTANTIAL COLUMN DRYING. AT THE SFC...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 40 INLAND...WITH
MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY TREND CONTINUES THURS AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE.
HIGHS NEAR CLIMO...GENERALLY AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW 60S OBX. WITH
THE HIGH OFFSHORE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...RETURN SW FLOW WILL ENSURE
ALLOWING FOR BUILDING THICKNESSES AND INCREASING MOISTURE. HIGHS
WILL BUILD INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FRI INLAND TO UPPER 60S OBX. 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW LATE FRI NIGHT THOUGH LOCATION AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXITS
BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF IS DELAYED BY ABOUT 12 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE GFS...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. SURFACE HIGH TAKES BACK OVER SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SUN AFTERNOON. TEMPS AGAIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO SAT AND SUN...MID UPPER 70S INLAND TO 60S OBX.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MONDAY...CEILINGS WERE MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT
AS THE COLUMN BECOMES MORE SATURATED...IFR CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED AT ALL BUT KPGV. LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL
AT ALL TERMINAL SITES BY 15Z OR 16Z AT THE LATEST AND WILL
TRANSITION FORECAST TO IFR WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY. IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP
BECOMES MORE LATER THIS EVENING SHOWERY AND MIXING INCREASES IN
THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. S/SW WINDS GUST 18-22KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...AVIATION CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUES TO MOSTLY VFR AS
PRECIP SHIFTS OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES
EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CIGS WILL
BE IN THE VFR CAT. PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THURS AND FRI AS
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...STRONGER WINDS ARE MAINLY LIMITED TO OUTER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WATERS WITH WARMER WATER TEMPS...BUT LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SRLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT THIS AFTN...AND NO CHANGE TO SCA FOR ALL BUT ALBEMARLE SOUND.
SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 7 FT OFF OREGON INLET WITH 6 FT OFFSHORE OF NEW
RIVER INLET...AND LOCALLY HIGHER 9 FT AT DIAMOND BUOY WITH STRONGER
WINDS FROM CONVECTION.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 7 AM MONDAY...EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AS OF 10Z.
WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM EASTERLY TO MORE S/SW DURING THE DAY AS A
WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ON
ALL WATERS SHOULD BE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATER IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 7 OR 8 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BY MIDDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM MON...COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ALONG THE NC COAST TUES
MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME WEST BY
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED 5-7 FT
THROUGH TUES THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE TUES NIGHT WITH INCREASING N TO NW WINDS BEHIND IT. THESE
WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE SCA SEAS ALREADY IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS THURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA PASSES THROUGH EASTERN NC. NW WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE THURS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASING TO
10-15 KT ON FRI WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT TUESDAY
FOR AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
656 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH LATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM MONDAY...RADAR SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURNS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN IS OCCURRING OFF OF CORE BANKS AND THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS.
PER LATEST 3 KM HRRR AND RAP MODEL...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER ABOUT 15Z OR 16Z AS PRECIPITATION HAS TAKEN SOME
TIME TO OVERCOME DRY LOW LAYERS. DEWPOINTS ARE RISING QUICKLY
NOW...INTO THE 50S OVER MOST AREAS...SO RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE BACK NORTH TO ENCOMPASS
OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS HAS THE LOOK OF A CLASSIC
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS CAPE VALUES PEAK AT AROUND 400 J/KG
LATER THIS EVENING WITH MODEST LI VALUES OF AROUND -2.
HOWEVER...GOOD 850-500 MB DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS INDICATED FROM 18Z
TO ABOUT 00Z AND IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED ANY CONVECTION
CAN GET AS TO HOW ELEVATED THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BECOME. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH A SMALL RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE SHEAR VALUES. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE TO 1.5
INCHES BY LATE THIS EVENING. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE 70S EXCEPT 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL WANE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DIMINISH...A THREAT OF SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. HAVE
HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AREA-WIDE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM MON...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
EASTERN NC EARLY TUES MORNING WITH ORGANIZED PRECIP ENDING FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA. 850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN SW AND WITH THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION...CANNOT
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF HWY 17 WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REMAIN 1365-1375 METERS.
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SHOWERS EARLY TUES NIGHT THOUGH
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO WED AS CHANNELED
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED WED
MORNING AS IT TRAVERSES EASTERN NC AND FINALLY OFF THE COAST BY
WED EVENING. PRECIP...CLOUDS...AND LOWERING THICKNESSES WILL KEEP
TEMPS MILD ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S INLAND TO UPPER 50S OBX.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
SUBSTANTIAL COLUMN DRYING. AT THE SFC...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 40 INLAND...WITH
MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY TREND CONTINUES THURS AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE.
HIGHS NEAR CLIMO...GENERALLY AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW 60S OBX. WITH
THE HIGH OFFSHORE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...RETURN SW FLOW WILL ENSURE
ALLOWING FOR BUILDING THICKNESSES AND INCREASING MOISTURE. HIGHS
WILL BUILD INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FRI INLAND TO UPPER 60S OBX. 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW LATE FRI NIGHT THOUGH LOCATION AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXITS
BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF IS DELAYED BY ABOUT 12 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE GFS...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. SURFACE HIGH TAKES BACK OVER SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SUN AFTERNOON. TEMPS AGAIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO SAT AND SUN...MID UPPER 70S INLAND TO 60S OBX.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MONDAY...CEILINGS WERE MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT
AS THE COLUMN BECOMES MORE SATURATED...IFR CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED AT ALL BUT KPGV. LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL
AT ALL TERMINAL SITES BY 15Z OR 16Z AT THE LATEST AND WILL
TRANSITION FORECAST TO IFR WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY. IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP
BECOMES MORE LATER THIS EVENING SHOWERY AND MIXING INCREASES IN
THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. S/SW WINDS GUST 18-22KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...AVIATION CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUES TO MOSTLY VFR AS
PRECIP SHIFTS OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES
EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CIGS WILL
BE IN THE VFR CAT. PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THURS AND FRI AS
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM MONDAY...EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY AS OF 10Z.
WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM EASTERLY TO MORE S/SW DURING THE DAY AS A
WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ON
ALL WATERS SHOULD BE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATER IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 7 OR 8 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BY MIDDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM MON...COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ALONG THE NC COAST TUES
MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME WEST BY
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED 5-7 FT
THROUGH TUES THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE TUES NIGHT WITH INCREASING N TO NW WINDS BEHIND IT. THESE
WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE SCA SEAS ALREADY IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS THURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA PASSES THROUGH EASTERN NC. NW WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE THURS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASING TO
10-15 KT ON FRI WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT TUESDAY
FOR AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH LATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...PRECIPITATION IS SLOWLY STARTING TO OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO LIKELY
REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. BASED ON LATEST
3 KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS...STILL THINK IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE
HOURS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. HAVE POPS
BECOMING LIKELY AFTER 10Z AND CONTINUING IN THE LIKELY RANGE
THROUGH THE DAY.
SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE BACK NORTH TO ENCOMPASS
OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS HAS THE LOOK OF A CLASSIC
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS CAPE VALUES PEAK AT AROUND 400 J/KG
LATER THIS EVENING WITH MODEST LI VALUES OF AROUND -2.
HOWEVER...GOOD 850-500 MB DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS INDICATED FROM 18Z
TO ABOUT 00Z AND IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED ANY CONVECTION
CAN GET AS TO HOW ELEVATED THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BECOME. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH A SMALL RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE SHEAR VALUES. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE TO 1.5
INCHES BY LATE THIS EVENING. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE 70S EXCEPT 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL WANE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DIMINISH...A THREAT OF SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. HAVE
HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AREA-WIDE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM MON...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
EASTERN NC EARLY TUES MORNING WITH ORGANIZED PRECIP ENDING FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA. 850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN SW AND WITH THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION...CANNOT
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF HWY 17 WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REMAIN 1365-1375 METERS.
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SHOWERS EARLY TUES NIGHT THOUGH
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO WED AS CHANNELED
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED WED
MORNING AS IT TRAVERSES EASTERN NC AND FINALLY OFF THE COAST BY
WED EVENING. PRECIP...CLOUDS...AND LOWERING THICKNESSES WILL KEEP
TEMPS MILD ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S INLAND TO UPPER 50S OBX.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
SUBSTANTIAL COLUMN DRYING. AT THE SFC...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 40 INLAND...WITH
MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY TREND CONTINUES THURS AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE.
HIGHS NEAR CLIMO...GENERALLY AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW 60S OBX. WITH
THE HIGH OFFSHORE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...RETURN SW FLOW WILL ENSURE
ALLOWING FOR BUILDING THICKNESSES AND INCREASING MOISTURE. HIGHS
WILL BUILD INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FRI INLAND TO UPPER 60S OBX. 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW LATE FRI NIGHT THOUGH LOCATION AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXITS
BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF IS DELAYED BY ABOUT 12 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE GFS...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. SURFACE HIGH TAKES BACK OVER SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SUN AFTERNOON. TEMPS AGAIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO SAT AND SUN...MID UPPER 70S INLAND TO 60S OBX.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...CEILINGS CURRENT MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES AND DO
NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z AND THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO OUR WEST. CURRENT PRECIPITATION
INDICATED BY RADAR IS HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND DUE
TO LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS. CEILINGS WILL GO TO IFR AS PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SW EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IFR
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA MON MORNING.
IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP
BECOMES MORE SHOWERY AND MIXING INCREASES IN THE WARM SECTOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. S/SW WINDS GUST 18-22KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...AVIATION CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUES TO MOSTLY VFR AS
PRECIP SHIFTS OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES
EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CIGS WILL
BE IN THE VFR CAT. PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THURS AND FRI AS
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...HAVE ADDED THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO BEGIN AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT NOON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY S/SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO ADVISORIES AS WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM ENE TO S AS
THE WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
ON ALL WATERS SHOULD BE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATER IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 7 OR 8 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BY MIDDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM MON...COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ALONG THE NC COAST TUES
MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME WEST BY
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED 5-7 FT
THROUGH TUES THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE TUES NIGHT WITH INCREASING N TO NW WINDS BEHIND IT. THESE
WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE SCA SEAS ALREADY IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS THURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA PASSES THROUGH EASTERN NC. NW WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE THURS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASING TO
10-15 KT ON FRI WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
115 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
LOW STRATUS OOZING SOUTH FROM CANADA HAS BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY FROM CAVALIER TO GRAFTON
TO CROOKSTON AND BACK NORTH TO HALLOCK. MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS
WELL...BUT THINK THEY SHOULD LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK APART A BIT
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH
THESE TRENDS. TEMPERATURES ALSO WARMING A BIT FASTER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATED...SO MADE SOME SLIGHT
UPWARD CHANGES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH AS QUICKLY AS BEFORE...SO ALSO SLOWED EASTWARD PROGRESS OF
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
THERE IS STILL SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING FROM ROSEAU TO
WASKISH TO DETROIT LAKES AND INTO THE WADENA/STAPLES AREA.
VISIBILITY ON AREA WEBCAMS SEEMS TO BE SLOWLY IMPROVING AND WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT REMAINING
FOG TO DISSIPATE BY THE NOON HOUR. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER FOG
WITH NOWCASTS.
A PATCH OF LOW STRATUS NEAR WINNIPEG HAS BEEN OOZING SOUTHWARD
THIS MORNING AND ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NORTHERN
VALLEY. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW THESE CLOUDS WILL EVOLVE GIVEN MODEL
LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS...BUT LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS MAY SAG
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. FOR NOW...INCREASED SKY COVER DOWN TO
MARSHALL AND NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR FUTURE UPDATES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THESE CLOUDS
WILL WRECK HAVOC ON TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AREAS UNDER
THE CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. FOR OTHER AREAS
WITH SNOW COVER...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S AND INTO THE
LOWER 50S OVER BARE GROUND.
WEAK SHORT-WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY AFTER 18 UTC. MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION WITH
A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF MIXED LAYER CAPE AVAILABLE. REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
FOG EAST OF THE VALLEY IS DENSE AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS
ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM AT MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND SUNRISE WILL DISSIPATE
THIS PATCHY DENSE FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE IS FINALLY EXITING THE FA AND ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
PATCHY FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN FA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...THE SET UP APPEARS SIMILAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER APPEAR LIKELY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA).
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...SUBSIDENCE FROM PASSING SFC RIDGING WILL LEAD TO
DRY WEATHER. PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SYSTEM PROPAGATING ACROSS
CANADA WILL ADVECT A VERY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL (DID RAISE THE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS).
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL A BIT LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS...STILL THINK TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A FEW EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AROUND
SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS...WHICH COULD AFFECT HIGH TEMPS ON
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG THE INITIAL COLD
FRONTAL/SFC TROUGH...BUT SHOULD FILTER SOUTHWARD HEADING TOWARD
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGE RIGHT OFF THE BAT WILL BE THE BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD KGFK/KTVF. WITH THE MORNING SUN TEMPS HAVE RISEN AT BOTH
THESE TAF SITES SO THINK THAT THE BAND WILL LIFT INTO A LOW
STRATOCUMULUS DECK. SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND LATELY BUT SOME EFFECTS WILL BE LIKELY BE
FELT AT KGFK/KTVF. THEREFORE HAVE BROUGHT IN A TEMPORARY LOWER CLOUD
DECK FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS BY
THEN. IF THESE TRENDS DO NOT MATCH UP WITH REALITY WILL JUST HAVE TO
AMEND. OTHERWISE THERE ARE SOME MID LEVEL CEILINGS MOVING INTO THE
KDVL AREA AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A CLAP OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE...WHICH
COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE MINIMAL SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO HINTING AT SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO MENTION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1010 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
THERE IS STILL SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING FROM ROSEAU TO
WASKISH TO DETROIT LAKES AND INTO THE WADENA/STAPLES AREA.
VISIBILITY ON AREA WEBCAMS SEEMS TO BE SLOWLY IMPROVING AND WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT REMAINING
FOG TO DISSIPATE BY THE NOON HOUR. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER FOG
WITH NOWCASTS.
A PATCH OF LOW STRATUS NEAR WINNIPEG HAS BEEN OOZING SOUTHWARD
THIS MORNING AND ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NORTHERN
VALLEY. DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW THESE CLOUDS WILL EVOLVE GIVEN MODEL
LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS...BUT LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS MAY SAG
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. FOR NOW...INCREASED SKY COVER DOWN TO
MARSHALL AND NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR FUTURE UPDATES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THESE CLOUDS
WILL WRECK HAVOC ON TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AREAS UNDER
THE CLOUDS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. FOR OTHER AREAS
WITH SNOW COVER...HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S AND INTO THE
LOWER 50S OVER BARE GROUND.
WEAK SHORT-WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY AFTER 18 UTC. MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION WITH
A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF MIXED LAYER CAPE AVAILABLE. REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
FOG EAST OF THE VALLEY IS DENSE AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS
ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM AT MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND SUNRISE WILL DISSIPATE
THIS PATCHY DENSE FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE IS FINALLY EXITING THE FA AND ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE...AND WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
PATCHY FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN FA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...THE SET UP APPEARS SIMILAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER APPEAR LIKELY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA).
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...SUBSIDENCE FROM PASSING SFC RIDGING WILL LEAD TO
DRY WEATHER. PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SYSTEM PROPAGATING ACROSS
CANADA WILL ADVECT A VERY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE VALUES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL (DID RAISE THE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS).
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL A BIT LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS...STILL THINK TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE A FEW EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AROUND
SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS...WHICH COULD AFFECT HIGH TEMPS ON
SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG THE INITIAL COLD
FRONTAL/SFC TROUGH...BUT SHOULD FILTER SOUTHWARD HEADING TOWARD
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
PATCHY DENSE FOG EAST OF THE VALLEY (KBJI) WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO PERIODIC MVFR CIGS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALSO COULD
BE SHOWERS/THUNDER...BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...AND
WILL EVALUATE THIS ASPECT LATER TODAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1103 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT UP FROM THE GULF COAST AND
MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE
REGION. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...AS MCS TRACKS ACRS CENTRAL GA/SC...MOISTURE
TRANSPORT EVIDENTLY BEING LIMITED INTO AREAS NORTH...INCLUDING OUR
CWFA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THIS ALL THAT WELL...BUT THE
00Z NCEP WRF-ARW AND A COUPLE EARLIER HRRR RUNS DID REFLECT THIS.
NEW NAM DOES BRING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW BY EARLY AFTN...BUT SO FAR ITS DEPICTION OF ACTIVITY
OVER NRN AL/GA IS OVERDONE. GENERALLY ALLOWED THE CATEGORICAL POPS
TO RETREAT TO THE SERN FRINGE OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HRS...ALLOWING A LULL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE BRINGING POPS UP
AGAIN AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO RAMP UP THIS AFTN.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE WITH THE WEDGE STILL LOCKED IN ACRS THE
FA. NEWEST GUIDANCE STILL BREAKS IT OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTN.
KGSP VWP INDICATES THE 2-3 KFT AGL WINDS ARE TRENDING TO SUGGEST
SCOURING MAY BE IN PROGRESS. THUS...BACKED OFF HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY
ALLOWING FOR NOTABLE AND RAPID WARMING IN THE EARLY HRS OF THE AFTN.
WITH THE WEDGE BREAKDOWN OCCURRING ABOUT AS EXPECTED...SEVERE THREAT
AND TIMING THUS LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME.
AS OF 530 AM EDT...PRECIP STARTING TO ADD UP ACROSS THE SRN
MOUNTAINS OF NC AND IN EXTREME NE GEORGIA. THE AMOUNT THAT HAS
FALLEN HAS STARTED TO OUTPACE THE QPF. RADAR TREND SHOWS A CONVEYOR
BELT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN STRETCHING BACK INTO ALABAMA. THINK
IT PRUDENT AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LITTLE TN
RIVER BASIN AND UPPER FRENCH BROAD BASIN. WILL ROUND IT OUT BY
INCLUDING THE SC MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
BASIN. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO THE
WATCH WILL RUN THROUGH 6 PM.
FOR TODAY...ALL SIGNS POINT TO RAIN...AND PERHAPS A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT IN SOME PLACES. NO NEED TO BELABOR ANY POINTS ABOUT DEEP
MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER FORCING...SO WE WILL FOCUS ON SOME OF THE
DETAILS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS THAT THE COOL POOL E OF
THE MTNS WILL BE DESTROYED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FACE OF STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AND A LACK OF A CONNECTION TO A SURFACE HIGH TO THE NE OR
OFFSHORE. CANNOT FIND A GUIDANCE SOURCE THAT HOLDS ONTO THE WEDGE
OUTSIDE OF THE NRN FOOTHILLS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THAT IS KEY...
BECAUSE IT SUGGESTS PERHAPS A BIT MORE OF A STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT E OF THE MTNS. THINK THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS WELL
PLACED...AND IF THE GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...THE COMBINATION OF CAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG...SRH GREATER THAN 250 M2/S2...AND SHEAR ABOVE 40KT
ALL POINT TO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO THREAT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE S OF I-85. KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH LATER TODAY IN THAT LOCATION. NO CHANGES TO
EARLIER THINKING ABOUT STRONG WINDS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SMOKIES AND SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC.
THE MAIN PRECIP AREA SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WERE RETAINED A BIT LONGER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST BECAUSE THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPOSED A
SLIGHT DELAY WITH FROPA. THE POP WILL PARE BACK TO THE TN BORDER BY
LATE EVENING AS MOIST NW FLOW UPSLOPE KEEPS A SHOWER CHANCE THERE.
FORTUNATELY...MIN TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 300 AM EDT MONDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH
DEAMPLIFIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY MORNING OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN A DEPARTING COLD FRONT
NEAR THE COAST...AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
EXTEND TO THE THE TN BORDER...WHERE AN INITIALLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT NW FLOW RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP THE TN RIVER
VALLEY...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. THICKNESS
VALUES ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...BUT A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MORE ROBUST NW UPSLOPE
FLOW. SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...BUT TIMING WOULD PRESENT AN OVERNIGHT LULL OVER OUR AREA.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 300 AM EDT MONDAY...BRIEF ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO AMPLIFY FROM HUDSON
BAY TO THE GULF COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STATES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A GREATER AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE CENTER OF THE NATION.
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE WESTERN EXTEND OF THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A
FOOTHOLD OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
OH RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT REACHES NC BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN UNDERGOES FRONTOLYSIS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINS REASSERTS ITSELF OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...WHILE AN OPEN
GULF FEEDS MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT CROSSES THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY...AND
NEARLY REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE DAY...WHEN WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...PRECIP SHIELD WILL DEPART BY NOON WITH
IMPROVED CIGS FOR A TIME THEREAFTER. NE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE
WEDGE...BUT THE WIND WILL START TO VEER AROUND AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON. LLWS COULD STILL BE A
PROBLEM WITH THE WEDGE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDDAY. ONCE THE SFC WIND
VEERS AROUND TO SE... THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE OF A
CONCERN...INCLUDING SEVERE STORMS. TEMPO INCLUDED FOR MAINLY
ELEVATED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN...WITH PROB30 THIS EVENING WHEN SEVERE
THREAT IS ACTUALLY GREATER DUE TO PRESENCE OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY
WITH CONTINUED STRONG PREFRONTAL SHEAR. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
REGION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH IMPROVING
CEILINGS.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONCERNS AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT SOME SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT DETAILS AND TIMING. HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
KAVL BECAUSE OF THE CROSS-VALLEY FLOW...BUT SIMILAR TO KCLT...IT
COULD OCCUR AT ALL THE OTHER TERMINALS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE UPPER TROF PASSES TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. IN ADDITION...NW FLOW
MOISTURE WOULD KEEP CIG RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE AT KAVL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EARLY WEEK. DRY HIGH PRES WILL RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z
KCLT MED 75% HIGH 80% MED 68% MED 68%
KGSP MED 73% MED 74% MED 65% HIGH 90%
KAVL MED 71% MED 69% MED 69% MED 62%
KHKY MED 72% MED 78% MED 72% MED 65%
KGMU MED 73% MED 74% MED 65% HIGH 90%
KAND MED 77% MED 76% MED 61% HIGH 87%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ051-052-058-
059.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ051-058-059-
062>065.
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>003.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
417 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE AIR OF COURSE IS VERY UNSTABLE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS WITH THE HEATING...AND SUPPORT FROM THE
UPPER WAVE WILL KEEP SOME OF THE HIGHER BASED CONVECTION GOING THIS
EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING STEADILY FROM THE WEST AS THE
LOSS OF HEATING COMBINES WITH THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT. AS WE HAVE BEEN
MENTIONING...NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED AND BRIEF 45
MPH GUST AND/OR SMALL HAIL EVENT POSSIBLE. CURRENT TIMING
EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR ACTIVITY TO BE GONE AROUND 06Z/1 AM CDT BUT
MAY SLOW THAT DOWN A TAD IN THE FAR EAST IF LATEST HRRR INDICATIONS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR STEADILY FROM THE
WEST DURING THE NIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP OFF.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY...WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION HIGH AND
SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT THE DRY AIR AND GREATER STABILITY WILL PRECLUDE
THE LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
REVITALIZED WITH HEATING UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GOING
FOR WITH 50S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN A BIT EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG AND DRIFTING EAST OF I29...BUT SOON A STRONGER RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WITH FLOW DIRECTION AND
STRENGTH OF GRADIENT...WINDS ALOFT COULD ATTEMPT TO SURFACE TO A
GREATER DEGREE ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS LIKELY THE WARMEST OVERALL DAY IN LAST SIX
MONTHS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY TO PUSH TOWARD 80 DEGREES IN
THE JAMES TO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
SUPPORT THE WARM TEMPS...ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW
DIRECTION WHICH IS A SOLID MATCH FOR EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY
WARMEST MAX. ONE PLACE WHERE GUIDANCE SEEMINGLY COMES UP SHORT IS
ON DEWPOINTS...AND WITH GREAT MIXING DEPTHS INDICATED ON ALL
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WOULD SUPPORT MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. LOWERED QUITE A BIT IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...
AND THIS HAS CREATED SOME GREATER CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER /SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW/.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WAVE CRASHING THE RIDGE WILL CLIP BETTER
DYNAMICS ACROSS THEN NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. OVERALL...THE
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY...WITH ANY DECENT MOISTURE
COMING IN WITH MID LEVEL FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
BY THIS TIME...HAS BECOME EVEN MORE DRY AT LOW LEVELS...AND
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...WILL PROBABLY HAVE MUCH MORE
RETURNS ON RADAR THAN ACTUALLY REACH THE SURFACE. HAVE CONTINUED
FAIRLY LOW POPS MAXIMIZING NORTHEAST VERSUS SOUTHWEST GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF WAS JUST A BIT MORE UNSTABLE...WOULD
ENTERTAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS.
THURSDAY ANOTHER FAIRLY BREEZY DAY...WITH MOST OF THE WINDS DUE TO
GOOD MIXING ENVIRONMENT. LOW DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN ENHANCE CONCERN
WITH FIRE BEHAVIOR. CONSERVATIVE MIXING YIELDS A LOT OF MID 50S TO
NEAR 60...AND HAVE NUDGED JUST A BIT ABOVE THIS DUE TO THE GREAT
MIXING CONDITIONS. WEAK WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHER THAN A FEW
MORE CLOUDS HAVE LEFT DRY FOR THE TIME.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AGAIN REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY...AND AGAIN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS LOOK TO BRING UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BACK TO THE AREA. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAPID NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE WAVES THROUGH THE REGION
WITH THE NEXT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY...BUT BY LATER IN THE
NIGHT MAY GET ENOUGH ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN TON INTERACT WITH
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY TO GET A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA. SATURDAY IS AN INTERESTING DAY AS A BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. POTENTIAL THAT LEADING WAVE
COULD SET UP A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
THAT WILL FOCUS SOMETHING MORE INSTABILITY DRIVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHILE COLD FRONT IS MORE INERT BACK
BETWEEN I29 AND THE JAMES RIVER. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT HAVE
SPREAD OUT POPS A BIT MORE THAN WOULD NORMALLY DO. ALSO...THIS
OPENS UP POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO GET QUITE WARM BETWEEN THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...WHERE SOME 925 HPA TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BRING
CHANCES FOR 70S BACK. WOULD CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THIS FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE SHEAR WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID
LEVEL FLOW...AND SOME POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE LOWER LEVELS
NEAR THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH.
FAIRLY MINIMAL AGREEMENT IN LARGER SCALE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT TRENDING TOWARD A MORE COHERENT TROUGHINESS BY
MONDAY. THIS WOULD AGREE SOMEWHAT WITH GFS IS ONLY SLOWED BY A
12-24H PERIOD. TEMPS COULD END UP SOMEWHAT COLDER ON MONDAY GIVEN
A STRAIGHT ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION...LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS.
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST THAT WAVE HANGING BACK IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WOULD START TO PULL NORTHWARD AS SHARPER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY..SLOWING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
ENHANCING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT COOLING ALONG WITH PRECIP...WITH PERHAPS
A LITTLE CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURRING AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT...UNLIKE THE
GFS WHICH GOES ALL IN FOR A MIX OR CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF
PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE TIME...
HAVE WEIGHTED ECMWF SOLUTION QUITE A BIT MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
THROUGH 08/03Z GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA BRINGING LOCAL
CEILINGS 3-6K FEET AND VERY BRIEF VISIBILITIES 3-5SM. ALSO LOCAL
SURFACE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 08/01Z.
AFTER 08/03Z VFR WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A POTENTIAL FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A CLASSIC MIXING DAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP MIXING LIKELY DRIVING
DEWPOINTS QUITE LOW. AT THIS TIME...LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT EAST...TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT MISSOURI AND JAMES VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR...AND WILL BE REEVALUATING FOR
A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON MID SHIFT. THURSDAY WILL ALSO
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH AGAIN SOME
MARGINALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...AND DRY DEWPOINTS KNOCKING
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT MANY AREAS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1238 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG
800 TO 900 MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WITH THE RAP CONTINUING TO SHOW THIS FORCING REMAINING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...RAISED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
UP TO 80 PERCENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
WEAK SIGNALS ALL COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. BY THEMSELVES...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. BUT TOGETHER...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THEY ARE.
WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOUNDINGS POINTING TO WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE AROUND 100 J/KG. RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SLATED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL WORK WITH THESE OTHER WEAK
FORCING SIGNALS TO FIRE OFF SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE RAIN...THE PROBLEM LIES
WITH WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE. SOME LOCATIONS ARE GOING TO
GET WET FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON-
EVENING...WHILE OTHERS COULD AVOID A SHOWER COMPLETELY. MESO MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST THE I-90 CORRIDOR IS A GOOD PROXY FOR THE SPINE OF
THE PCPN CHANCES...ALL GRADUALLY PULLING OFF EAST/SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. WILL PAINT THE PCPN CHANCES WITH THESE TRENDS IN MIND.
EXPECT REFINEMENT TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
NO CHANGE IN THE TREND FOR A MILD WEEK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO ZONAL-BROAD RIDGING A LOFT FOR A BETTER
PART OF THE WEEK...WITH EC 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES HOVERING AROUND +1.
HIGHS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. SOME LOCATIONS
WILL FLIRT WITH 70 FOR WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...BY SUNDAY...WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...COLDER AIR IS RETURNING. GFS/EC ARE
LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK...SUGGESTING
HIGHS IN THE 40S. SO...ENJOY THIS WEEK WHILE YOU CAN...BECAUSE IT
COULD BE MARKEDLY COLDER FOR THE NEXT.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SLIDING A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ON THU. WHILE THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HOLDS IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...SOME IS SLATED TO SLIP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE SYSTEM/S SFC FRONT...PROGGED TO RUN FROM
NORTHERN WI INTO SOUTHWEST IA AT 12Z THU. LOW LEVEL WARMING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH A SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ACROSS IT. DEEPER
QG RESPONSE SEEMS TO BE ALONG AND POST THE SFC BOUNDARY. NOT A LOT
OF SATURATION WITH THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS - BUT ENOUGH FOR THE FORCING TO WORK
ON FOR PCPN CHANCES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH GENERATING
QPF POST THE FRONT...IN THE BETTER SATURATION - BIT OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTERACTION. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. PROBABLY KEEP HIGH
CHANCES FOR RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT SEE THIS AS A PERIOD WHERE IT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE TO LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/EXTENT OF PCPN
BECOMES MORE EVIDENT.
SOME HINTS THAT ANOTHER BIT OF ENERGY A LOFT WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THIS THU SYSTEM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MORE RAIN
CHANCES. SIGNALS NOT AS A STRONG - KEEPING CONFIDENCE DOWN.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VOLATILITY
IN HOW TO HANDLE IT.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE GFS AND ECMWF BULLISH ON WHAT COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER FOR THE REGION. AN OPEN GULF AND SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT SUGGESTED 1 TO 2 INCHES. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES IN ON SAT...WITH PCPN
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND IT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDES UP IT. THE 07.00Z GFS SHIFTS THE SYSTEM/PCPN EAST OVERNIGHT
SAT...A BIT FASTER THAN SOME OF ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE EC HOLDS ONTO
THE FRONT LONGER...RESULTING IN A WET SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES IN PERIOD OF RAIN...BOTH MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING ABOUT
1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME RISES ON AREA RIVER
SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH WHERE SNOW MELT IS OCCURRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
CONCERN FOCUSED ON LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES.
CURRENTLY WATCHING A LINE OF SHRA MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WI THROUGH SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. EXPECTING THIS LINE
OF SHRA TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...STEEPENING SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COULD GET SOME ISOLD THUNDER GOING AS WELL...BUT OPTED TO KEEP OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE. EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO SIMMER DOWN/DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. CIG HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS
CONVECTION WITH A TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN VIS INTO UPPER MVFR RANGE
EXPECTED AT KLSE WITH PASSAGE OF THE MAIN LINE OF SHRA BETWEEN
18-21Z. MODELS THEN BRING SOME MVFR CLOUDS IN WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT KEEPING THEM SCATTERED FOR NOW IN THE TAFS.
SURFACE HEATING TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH RELATIVELY
COOL/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BROKEN MVFR CUMULUS.
PLAN ON NORTHWST WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH MIXING TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
730 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...THIS MORNING
ISSUED AT 727 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG
800 TO 900 MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WITH THE RAP CONTINUING TO SHOW THIS FORCING REMAINING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...RAISED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
UP TO 80 PERCENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
WEAK SIGNALS ALL COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. BY THEMSELVES...PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. BUT TOGETHER...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THEY ARE.
WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOUNDINGS POINTING TO WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE AROUND 100 J/KG. RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SLATED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL WORK WITH THESE OTHER WEAK
FORCING SIGNALS TO FIRE OFF SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE RAIN...THE PROBLEM LIES
WITH WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE. SOME LOCATIONS ARE GOING TO
GET WET FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON-
EVENING...WHILE OTHERS COULD AVOID A SHOWER COMPLETELY. MESO MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST THE I-90 CORRIDOR IS A GOOD PROXY FOR THE SPINE OF
THE PCPN CHANCES...ALL GRADUALLY PULLING OFF EAST/SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. WILL PAINT THE PCPN CHANCES WITH THESE TRENDS IN MIND.
EXPECT REFINEMENT TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
NO CHANGE IN THE TREND FOR A MILD WEEK WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO ZONAL-BROAD RIDGING A LOFT FOR A BETTER
PART OF THE WEEK...WITH EC 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES HOVERING AROUND +1.
HIGHS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. SOME LOCATIONS
WILL FLIRT WITH 70 FOR WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...BY SUNDAY...WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...COLDER AIR IS RETURNING. GFS/EC ARE
LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK...SUGGESTING
HIGHS IN THE 40S. SO...ENJOY THIS WEEK WHILE YOU CAN...BECAUSE IT
COULD BE MARKEDLY COLDER FOR THE NEXT.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SLIDING A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ON THU. WHILE THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HOLDS IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...SOME IS SLATED TO SLIP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE SYSTEM/S SFC FRONT...PROGGED TO RUN FROM
NORTHERN WI INTO SOUTHWEST IA AT 12Z THU. LOW LEVEL WARMING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH A SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE ACROSS IT. DEEPER
QG RESPONSE SEEMS TO BE ALONG AND POST THE SFC BOUNDARY. NOT A LOT
OF SATURATION WITH THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS - BUT ENOUGH FOR THE FORCING TO WORK
ON FOR PCPN CHANCES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH GENERATING
QPF POST THE FRONT...IN THE BETTER SATURATION - BIT OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTERACTION. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. PROBABLY KEEP HIGH
CHANCES FOR RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT SEE THIS AS A PERIOD WHERE IT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE TO LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/EXTENT OF PCPN
BECOMES MORE EVIDENT.
SOME HINTS THAT ANOTHER BIT OF ENERGY A LOFT WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THIS THU SYSTEM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MORE RAIN
CHANCES. SIGNALS NOT AS A STRONG - KEEPING CONFIDENCE DOWN.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VOLATILITY
IN HOW TO HANDLE IT.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE GFS AND ECMWF BULLISH ON WHAT COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER FOR THE REGION. AN OPEN GULF AND SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT SUGGESTED 1 TO 2 INCHES. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES IN ON SAT...WITH PCPN
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND IT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDES UP IT. THE 07.00Z GFS SHIFTS THE SYSTEM/PCPN EAST OVERNIGHT
SAT...A BIT FASTER THAN SOME OF ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE EC HOLDS ONTO
THE FRONT LONGER...RESULTING IN A WET SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES IN PERIOD OF RAIN...BOTH MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING ABOUT
1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME RISES ON AREA RIVER
SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH WHERE SNOW MELT IS OCCURRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE LOOK TO
AFFECT KRST THROUGH 08.00Z...AND FROM 07.18Z THROUGH 08.00Z AT
KLSE. VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME MVFR AT TIMES...BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES OF WHEN THIS WOULD OCCUR...DID NOT INCLUDE IT THE
TAFS. CEILINGS THROUGH 08.08Z WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 8K...AND THEN
BECOME MVFR.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1144 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS ON THE BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. 06.21Z RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS AREA IS IN THE BELT OF HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000J/KG IN THIS REGION. THIS
AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS A LITTLE BETTER SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS THANKS TO AN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH. THE 06.21Z HRRR IS IN LINE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND
SHOWS IT MAINLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD ALONG THE CONVERGENCE IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEAKENING AS IT REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN.
AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS AS WELL. FREEZING LEVELS
ARE FAIRLY LOW AT 6-7KFT ALONG WITH DONOVAN HEIGHTS ONLY BEING
AROUND 17KFT...BUT THINK THAT LACK OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL KEEP
ANY UPDRAFTS FROM BEING SUSTAINED. ONE COCORAHS REPORT OF PEA
SIZED HAIL NEAR ELLENDALE MN ALREADY AND THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE
EXTENT OF HOW HIGH THE HAIL GETS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
FORECAST CONCERN IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NEAR DETROIT AND LOW
PRESSURE FROM MN TO NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO
LEADING TO CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS IA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN WHERE MOST UNSTABLE AIR SEEN JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUD SHIELD HAS BEEN ALL DAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN ND AND WILL HELP TO DRIVE THE LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE A
LARGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MAIN CONCERN IS RAIN CHANCES WITH THESE FEATURES. LOOKING LIKE THE
INITIAL CLOUD BAND AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN OR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WANE FOR A TIME...BUT INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE WAVE AND FRONT MOVE IN...AIDED BY DEFORMATION ON THE
NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
LOOKING LIKE A MORE MILD OR NORMAL APRIL TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL
TAKE HOLD THIS WEEK. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING FOR A
FEW DAYS AND WEAK TROUGHING FOR A FEW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TUE/WED...AND INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING
THIS SYSTEM POSES PROBABLY THE BIGGEST DILEMMA OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED THE FRONT WOULD HANG UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. BUT LATER SOLUTIONS NOW POINTING TO SOME
WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND THE FIRST ONE...
RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PUSH WITH A MORE TRANSIENT
RAIN EVENT. GFS HAD LATCHED ONTO THIS ALREADY WITH ITS 06Z
RUN...AND 12Z CONTINUED. LATEST 12Z ECMWF NOW ALSO ON BOARD WITH
THIS. WITH MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON A SOLUTION...
DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. FOR NOW WAS CONSERVATIVE
WITH CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUT MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THOUGH SOME
DROPS TO MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IF WINDS CAN GO
LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR OUT AT RST/LSE. RAIN HAS BEEN OFF AND ON
FALLING MORE SO AT RST THAN LSE...BUT WINDS HAVE REMAINED IN THE
5-10KT RANGE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL
THOUGH THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH SOME POTENTIAL BRIEF DROPS TO
MVFR/IFR OVER THAT PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
459 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-FRIDAY)
BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY
AND BREEZY NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE MID 50S NEAR THE LAKE REGION AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THIS TIME TODAY...WHICH CAN`T BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN
THE 60S THIS MORNING AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER
70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL BE 10-15 DEG COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NWRN INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGH THIS SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
APPROACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 60 77 68 / 0 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 65 78 70 / 0 0 10 10
MIAMI 78 63 78 69 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 75 60 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
SOUTH FL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM FOR ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM TONIGHT FOR THE
GULF WATERS WEST OF NAPLES.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
405 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST TODAY...
...ELEVATED RISK OF FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY...
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING. NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW RIDGES UP OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BEFORE DIVING QUICKLY
BACK SOUTHWARD INTO AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND SHARP LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/FL PENINSULA AND
WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST LATER THIS MORNING. SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY
SPREADING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. DESPITE LIMITED RESIDUAL COLUMN
MOISTURE BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...THIS FORCING IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ASHORE
FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN FACT...THE NWS OFFICE HERE IN
RUSKIN HAD A DECENT SHOWER ROLL THROUGH WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. THIS
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY A RATHER UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL
(SFC-850MB DELTA T OF 10-12C) PROFILE OVER THE WATERS OF THE
NORTHEAST GULF. HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS BY AND TAKES THE SYNOPTIC ASCENT EASTWARD AS WELL. ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE BRIEF AND RESULT IN ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN (IF THEY MEASURE AT ALL).
AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXITS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GOMEX AND FL PENINSULA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GOMEX. WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE STRONG WINDS FROM THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST ARE CREATING ROUGH CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREA AS
WELL AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
IS ARRIVING ON THESE NW WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION NOW
DOWN INTO THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY WHILE BEGINNING TO SHEAR OUT AND DEAMPLIFY.
A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS FORCED BY THE STRONG SYNOPTICS AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY SHOULD BE SHOWER FREE UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS A BIT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND DESPITE GOOD DIURNAL MIXING...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE RUNNING A GOOD 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. STILL OVERALL...NOT A
BAD DAY WEATHERWISE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 70S
NORTH OF I-4...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FURTHER SOUTH. THE ONSHORE
WEST FLOW OF DRIER AIR WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COAST A FEW DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES OVER THE WATER. FOR
ANYONE THAT DOES HEAD TO THE BEACHES OF THE SUNCOAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BE AWARE THAT THE HIGH SURF ARRIVING AT OUR COAST WILL
PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH THE DAY.
A COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MID APRIL COMING UP...AND THIS WILL BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT / BECOME MORE ZONAL IN NATURE OVER THE FL PENINSULA
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND REGION. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITHIN A VERY DRY TROP
COLUMN. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BY TONIGHT TO ONLY AROUND
0.5" FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND EVEN LESS THAN THIS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES. THE DRY COLUMN...COOL LOWER
LEVELS...AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE HIGH CENTER WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECENT LATE SEASON RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. NOW...WE ARE CERTAINLY
NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES THAT WOULD SUPPORT ANY FROST...
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD 40S ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE NATURE
COAST...WITH NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS FROM BROOKSVILLE NORTHWARD
POTENTIALLY SEEING LOWER 40S AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE FURTHER SOUTH...LOWER/MID 50S WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.MID TERM (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE WITH NEAR
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT OFF TO
THE NE THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTING UP AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND ALLOWING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN.
AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IS ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
EACH AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 50 NORTH...TO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING THE E/SE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS INLAND
AND SOUTH...AND THAT IN COMBINATION WITH SOME UPPER ENERGY
APPROACHING THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90
INLAND AND SOUTH EACH AFTERNOON...WITH LOWS EACH MORNING FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 50 TO AROUND 60 NORTH TO IN THE 60S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH AND PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PLACE EACH DAY WITH
IT...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST
AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE SUPPRESSED WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH...AND
AROUND 80 COASTAL TO THE MID 80S INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF
MVFR CEILING...BUT THESE SHOULD END BY 14-15Z...AN BE FOLLOWED BY
ONLY SCT CLOUDS OFF THE GULF INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE W/NW
TODAY WITH GUSTS DURING THE MORNING TOPPING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS UNDER HEADLINE CRITERIA FROM THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE REGION ON GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUING. GIVEN THE FORECAST RH...WINDS...AND PROVIDED ERC
VALUES...CONDITIONS ARE VERY CLOSE TO REACHING BRIEF RED FLAG
CRITERIA AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR ZONES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE THE RED
FLAG WARNING BUT RATHER HIGHLIGHT AT LEAST A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER IN THIS DISCUSSION. THE MORNING FORECAST SHIFT CAN
RE-EVALUATE TO DETERMINE IF A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH LIGHTER WINDS...NO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 56 79 60 / 10 0 0 10
FMY 79 57 83 60 / 10 0 0 10
GIF 76 55 80 59 / 10 0 0 10
SRQ 73 56 80 58 / 10 0 0 10
BKV 75 46 80 51 / 10 0 0 10
SPG 72 61 78 63 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...COLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
245 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
At 00z Wednesday an upper level ridge axis extended from Utah
into western Saskatchewan and a 500mb trough was located near the
coast of southwest British Columbia. A 100kt 300mb jet extended
from the base of this upper trough east northeastward into
southwest Alberta. Further east a surface and 850mb trough was
located across the central and northern high plains. 850mb
temperatures at 00z Wednesday were +2C at Topeka, +10c at Dodge
City, +11 at North Platte and +16 at Amarillo.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Westerly downslope flow will improve today as an upper level
ridge axis weakens as it move east into the Central Plains Today.
850mb temperature trends across southwest Kansas from 00z
Wednesday to 00z Thursday indicated at 7C to 10C warmup. Based on
this warmup along with 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday ranging
from 18c to 22c at 00z Thursday the previous forecast still looks
on track with temperatures rebounding back into mainly the mid 80s
for Highs today.
00z NAM boundary layer and mixed layer dewpoints for later this
afternoon were similar and averaged around 4-6F lower than the 2m
NAM dewpoints. GFS was higher with dewpoint through out the lower
levels and at this time appears too high based on 06z
verification. As a result trend towards the lower NAM afternoon
dewpoints based on the dry southwest flow expected to develop
during the afternoon. Given this along with afternoon temperatures
in the low to mid 80s it currently appears afternoon relative
humidities will fall back below 15 percent for all of western and
south central Kansas. As afternoon relative humidities fall into
the teens the gusty southwest winds will also decrease as a
surface trough of low pressure moves across western Kansas. Given
where this surface boundary will be located late day along with
the boundary layer and mixed layer winds from the latest RAP and
NAM models at 21z Wednesday it appears the potential for gusty
southwest will lingering until near 00z Thursday south of a line
extending Dodge City to Pratt. Based on these expected winds
during the mid to late afternoon and relative humidity values
below 15% will upgrade the Fire Weather Watch for Meade, Clark,
Comanche, and Kiowa to a Red Flag Warning.
Clear skies will continue tonight and based on the warm layer
forecast in the lower levels from the model soundings the previous
forecast appears to have the right idea with keeping the low
temperatures tonight warmer than what the latest guidance suggest.
Based on the warm layer near the surface from the NAM and GFS will
favor lows tonight in the upper 40s to around 50.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough quickly
moving out of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region
Thursday bringing precip chances to the Upper Midwest. Although
an attendant cold front is projected to push southeastward through
western Kansas early Thursday, a dry frontal passage is expected
with the lower/mid levels lacking significant moisture as indicated
by GFS/ECMWF model soundings. The drier pattern will likely continue
into the early part of the weekend. A drop in temperatures will
occur Thursday in wake of the cold front pushing through western
Kansas early in the day. Cooler air will surge southward into
western Kansas lowering H85 temperatures from around 10C across
central Kansas to near 15C in extreme southwest Kansas. Highs are
expected to struggle reaching the 70s(F) across central Kansas near
the I-70 corridor, if at all. Lower to mid 70s(F) are likely across
southwest Kansas closer to the Oklahoma border. A gradual warming
trend is likely through Saturday as a general south to southeasterly
low level flow prevails across western Kansas through much of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
RAP and BUFR soundings indicating dry air will be in place in the
lower levels of the atmosphere overnight and Wednesday across
western Kansas. As a result VFR conditions will continue. Light
winds will become southwest and increase into the 10 to 15kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 49 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 84 48 71 44 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 84 51 74 45 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 85 49 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 84 49 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 84 50 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ087>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
224 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014
...Updated synopsis, short term, and fire weather discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
At 00z Wednesday an upper level ridge axis extended from Utah
into western Saskatchewan and a 500mb trough was located near the
coast of southwest British Columbia. A 100kt 300mb jet extended
from the base of this upper trough east northeastward into
southwest Alberta. Further east a surface and 850mb trough was
located across the central and northern high plains. 850mb
temperatures at 00z Wednesday were +2C at Topeka, +10c at Dodge
City, +11 at North Platte and +16 at Amarillo.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Westerly downslope flow will improve today as an upper level
ridge axis weakens as it move east into the Central Plains Today.
850mb temperature trends across southwest Kansas from 00z
Wednesday to 00z Thursday indicated at 7C to 10C warmup. Based on
this warmup along with 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday ranging
from 18c to 22c at 00z Thursday the previous forecast still looks
on track with temperatures rebounding back into mainly the mid 80s
for Highs today.
00z NAM boundary layer and mixed layer dewpoints for later this
afternoon were similar and averaged around 4-6F lower than the 2m
NAM dewpoints. GFS was higher with dewpoint through out the lower
levels and at this time appears too high based on 06z
verification. As a result trend towards the lower NAM afternoon
dewpoints based on the dry southwest flow expected to develop
during the afternoon. Given this along with afternoon temperatures
in the low to mid 80s it currently appears afternoon relative
humidities will fall back below 15 percent for all of western and
south central Kansas. As afternoon relative humidities fall into
the teens the gusty southwest winds will also decrease as a
surface trough of low pressure moves across western Kansas. Given
where this surface boundary will be located late day along with
the boundary layer and mixed layer winds from the latest RAP and
NAM models at 21z Wednesday it appears the potential for gusty
southwest will lingering until near 00z Thursday south of a line
extending Dodge City to Pratt. Based on these expected winds
during the mid to late afternoon and relative humidity values
below 15% will upgrade the Fire Weather Watch for Meade, Clark,
Comanche, and Kiowa to a Red Flag Warning.
Clear skies will continue tonight and based on the warm layer
forecast in the lower levels from the model soundings the previous
forecast appears to have the right idea with keeping the low
temperatures tonight warmer than what the latest guidance suggest.
Based on the warm layer near the surface from the NAM and GFS will
favor lows tonight in the upper 40s to around 50.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
This extended period will begin with Wednesday night, with a
predominant northwest flow aloft, as depicted by the NAM, ECMWF, and
GFS models. Southwest Kansas can expect a mild night under clear
skies Wednesday night, and a breezy, mostly sunny and warm day on
Thursday. Winds on Thursday will start from the north as a surface
pressure system slides towards the east. By the end of the day, the
pressure gradient will evolve from the north to the south, and winds
will shift to the east by late Thursday afternoon.
Friday and Saturday should be warm as well, as upper level northwest
flow persists and produces a downslope affect. The surface flow
will become southeast to south Friday and Saturday. Clouds will
start increasing from west to east by Friday night, first with upper
level cirrus clouds increasing and then mid altocumulus clouds.
Late Saturday evening and night, there will be a chance for
nocturnal thunderstorms northeast of a line from Ness City to Pratt,
the approximate location of the surface front by 12Z Sunday.
Saturday should still be warm, with upper 70s to lower 80s for max
temperatures. Sunday will cool down some, as high clouds thicken
and continue to move in Saturday, as a cold front passes through to
the south Saturday night and Sunday, There is a cool surface high
pressure moving in from the north Sunday, and more mid and high
clouds as well. Both high and low temperatures will be nearer to
normal, down from warmer Wed-Sat levels.
Sunday night looks to the most active convective period, with our
eastern zones from Ellis to Coldwater having the highest
instability. An upper level open wave will be crossing west to
east, providing mid and upper level lift to western and central
Kansas. The thunderstorms will change over to rain or rainshowers
Sunday night as the atmosphere gets worked over and becomes more
stable. Rainfall will be lighter Sunday night, and for now, I did
not add any mixed R-/S- precipitation types. The upper wave should
be east of our area by Monday Noon, with precip ending Monday morning.
Surface temperatures will warm up a little by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
RAP and BUFR soundings indicating dry air will be in place in the
lower levels of the atmosphere overnight and Wednesday across
western Kansas. As a result VFR conditions will continue. Light
winds will become southwest and increase into the 10 to 15kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Unseasonably warm temperatures can be expected today. Gusty
southwest winds will develop by late morning. These gusty winds
will decrease during the early afternoon as a surface trough of
low pressure moves east into western Kansas. As the southwest
winds decrease...the relative humidity values will fall back into
the teens and by late day afternoon relative humidity values area
expected to range from 10 to 15 percent. Across portions of south
central Kansas late this afternoon wind gusts of 25 mph or higher
will still be possible. Base on where these gusty winds will be
late today along with relative humidity values of 10 to 15 percent
a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Meade, Clark, Comanche, and
Barber counties. Further north and west the wind speeds will be
lighter, however elevated fire weather conditions are still
expected. Outdoor burning is not recommended today, especially
near the Oklahoma border where the Red Flag Warning has been
posted.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 49 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 84 48 71 44 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 84 51 74 45 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 85 49 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 84 49 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 84 50 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ087>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1223 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
1220 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND MESONET.
PREV DISC...
830PM UPDATE...
HAVE FURTHER REFINED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE SPIKED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE FALLING QUICKLY BEHIND IT. MORE
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AS NOTED BY AREA OF RAIN
ALREADY IN QUEBEC AND VERMONT.
530PM UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LEADING EDGE OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS GROW A LITTLE MORE INTENSE. HAVE UPDATED
HOURLY POP FORECAST AND RELIED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR MODEL WHICH
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS BAND OF SHOWERS FAIRLY WELL. FOG HAS
MOVED IN TO COASTAL AREAS WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE.
HOWEVER... AS WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT THIS FOG WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AND IT WILL BRING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS OUR
WINDS SHIFT ACROSS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL GIVE US SOME
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW...THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KICK OFF SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL CREST OVERHEAD. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS GO
LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO QUICKLY MOVE THRU THE AREA. SKIES CLEAR ON
FRIDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW. BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY NE THRU NEW ENGLAND AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS THAT WOULD BE ENDING BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR
BEFORE A STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS UP BY MID SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU MONDAY EVENING BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.
WITH THE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR TIMING OF PCPN. INCREASED MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
TO IFR AS CLOUDS WILL LIFT WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW AND
THIS WILL HELP KICK OFF SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TOMORROW...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE SCA WILL REMAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
IN AN INCREASING SOUTH FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AND GUSTS
UP TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT MAY INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE SUNCOOK RIVER AT NORTH CHICHESTER REMAINS IN A RIVER FLOOD
WARNING. SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THE NIGHT DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY... HOWEVER ANY FLOODING WILL BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
ES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
539 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. ANOTHER FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THAT CAME ONSHORE OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DRIVER FOR INTENSIFYING THE LOW IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MOISTURE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE HAS LED TO SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND EVEN PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOSER TO
UPPER MICHIGAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING EXPERIENCED BUT
THOSE MID CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING INTO THE 20S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA UNDER LIGHT WINDS FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...THOSE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MID
CLOUDS SHIFTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THEY SHIFT TO THE EAST. THESE
MID CLOUDS WILL BE CAUSED BY BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING
UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND PULLING MUCH WARMER
AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BROAD
WAA...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TO STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN (CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
850-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) AND AWAY FROM THE VERY DRY AIR BELOW
7KFT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA TODAY WILL LEAD TO AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY TODAY.
MODELS ARE INDICATING 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AT LEAST 8C BY 00Z
THURSDAY OVER THE WEST. NOT SURE IF MIXING WILL GET THAT HIGH...BUT
FEEL THAT MIXING TO 900MB IS REASONABLE. THINK THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OVERESTIMATE THE COOLING FROM THE EXISTING SNOWPACK AND WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THE WEST. THIS WAS THE CASE
FOR THIS PAST WEEKEND AND EARLIER THIS WORK WEEK AND WITH THE
INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. THEREFORE...HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER THE WEST HALF
AND COOLER VALUES OVER THE EAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING JAMES BAY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWESTERN MICHIGAN AND THEN CONTINUE EAST WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THERE ARE A COUPLE ITEMS OF CONCERN AS IT HEADS INTO THE
CWA. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW STAYS OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL PUSH
FROM THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND IN
WISCONSIN. COULD LEAD TO SOME GAPS IN THE COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
SOME SCATTERING OF THE PRECIP AS THE FORCING SPLITS...BUT FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS TO PUT A 2-3HR PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS IN FOR WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH IT AS IT DEPARTS. AS FOR TIMING...HAVE THE SHOWERS MOVING
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND 06Z...CENTRAL AROUND 08Z...EASTERN AROUND
10Z. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. DID CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEBATED PUSHING
THEM EAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN SINCE THE STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR COVERAGE TO SCATTER OUT
AND HEADING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...OPTED TO LEAVE OUT.
IN ADDITION...03Z SREF CALIBRATED 3HR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ONLY HAD A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF 5 PERCENT PROBS IN THE CWA. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE POTENTIAL SPLITTING...LEFT QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER 0.1 INCH TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
FINALLY...THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND THEN
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEHIND THE
FRONT. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
DURING THE LONG TERM....PATTERN WILL RETURN TO ONE THAT WAS COMMON
DURING THE WINTER. A RIDGE WILL BUILD THRU THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO
NW NAMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL FORCE A RATHER DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP THRU THE CNTRL INTO THE ERN CONUS. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN WHETHER OR NOT THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL YIELD A HVY PCPN
SYSTEM FOR THE GREAT LAKES AS MANY GFS/ECMWF RUNS SUGGESTED OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IN ANY EVENT...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PCPN WITH THE BEST CHC PROBABLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...
WARMTH/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO START THE LONG TERM WILL TRANSITION TO
BLO NORMAL TEMPS (POTENTIALLY WELL BLO NORMAL) EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOW
MODERATION WILL THEN OCCUR THEREAFTER.
BEGINNNING THU...STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEP SFC LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO
IN THE MORNING WILL MOVE TO WRN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY. WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE SE FCST AREA OR JUST TO THE SE AT
12Z...ONLY INCLUDED CHC POPS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THRU
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY UNDER
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. INCOMING AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C OVER THE S AND -3 TO -4C N. WITH A
MILD START TO THE DAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY SNEAK ABOVE 60F OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OF THE SCNTRL. WITH W WINDS...COOLEST CONDITIONS BE OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA (AROUND 40F ALONG WRN SHORELINE). IT WILL BE A
BREEZY/WINDY DAY AS WEAK CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING BUILD MIXED LAYER
AND TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT RESULTING FROM DEEP LOW PRES WELL TO
THE N AND NE. INCORPORATED SOME OF THE NAM GUSTS TO ARRIVE AT WIND
GUSTS INTO THE 30-40MPH RANGE OVER MAINLY THE W HALF. SUSTAINED
WINDS/GUSTS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH WIND ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE
KEWEENAW.
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN AMPLIFICATION...
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE SHIFTING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES FRI...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT -SHRA. WHILE THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY ASSERTIVE WITH PCPN FRI...THE ECMWF
HAS ONLY RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS. WITH SUPPORT ALSO FROM THE
NAM AND UKMET...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LOW CHC OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA FRI. BEST CHC WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE SAT THRU MON TIME FRAME IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FCST
AND PROVIDES THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. FOR MANY DAYS...GFS/ECMWF RUNS
SUGGESTED A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT SOMETIME DURING THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM THAT SCENARIO OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/UKMET...THE
ECMWF HAS NOT WAVERED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ACTION WILL BEGIN WITH
RIDGE AMPLIFICATION THRU THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO NW NAMERICA OVER
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL FORCE TROF AMPLIFICATION S THRU THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW A LARGE MASS OF LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR TO
PUSH S TOWARD THE CNTRL CONUS UNDER THE AMPLIFYING TROF WHILE THE
GULF OF MEXICO OPENS FOR BUSINESS WITH CONSIDERABLE WARMTH/MOISTURE
STREAMING N AHEAD OF THE TROF. ALL THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A
SPRING-TIME HVY PCPN EVENT. WITH A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES INVOLVED...
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE TROF AMPLIFICATION AND TIMING/INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVES WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHAT ULTIMATELY HAPPENS. WAVES
INVOLVED INCLUDE ONE MOVING E INTO SRN CA AND ONE DROPPING SSE THRU
THE PACIFIC NW SAT AND THEN MORE ENERGY DROPPING S TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT. IN THE ECMWF SCENARIO...THE AXIS OF THE AMPLIFYING
MID/UPPER TROF IS FARTHER W OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THERE IS MUCH
MORE SHORTWAVE INTERACTION/PHASING...RESULTING IN A SLOW MOVING
SHARP COLD FRONT WITH THE SRN CA SHORTWAVE GENERATING A SFC WAVE
THAT BRINGS A BAND OF MDT TO HVY SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN NIGHT/MON.
IN THE GFS SCENARIO...THE AMPLIFYING TROF IS FARTHER E...WHICH
RESULTS IN THE NE MOVING SFC WAVE TO BE MUCH FARTHER E...NOT
AFFECTING UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ITS LEADING SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN
STREAM PRODUCES A MORE WELL-DEFINED LOW THAT BRINGS A STREAK MDT
PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT/SAT NIGHT. WHILE IT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...HESITANT TO FAVOR THE ECMWF GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN VERY
COMPLEX INTERACTION OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT IT SHOWS TAKING
PLACE. WITH THE GFS HAVING SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/UKMET...FCST WILL
LEAN MORE IN THAT DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THAT DECISION IS BOOSTED
SOME WITH TODAYS 00Z ECMWF AS IT IS NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW TRENDS
TOWARD THE GFS/GEM/UKMET.
ON SAT...STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
THE AREA. GFS THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW. THE GEM AND
ECMWF ARE WARMER...SUGGESTING ONLY LIQUID. FOR NOW...FCST WILL
REFLECT A MOSTLY RAIN SCENARIO SAT THAT WILL TRANSITION TOWARD
MOSTLY SNOW AS THE PCPN DIMINISHES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. PCPN MAY
IN FACT END SUN...LEAVING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MON AND TUE. THE
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD COME JUST IN TIME TO MOSTLY STOP
SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND SLOW RIVER RISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO
THE TIGHTENING SW GRAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SW WINDS
TO GUST BTWN 20-25 KT BY LATE WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (35-45KTS)...BUT THINKING THE ICE
COVER ON THE LAKE WILL HELP CREATE A MARINE LAYER TO KEEP THE
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BUT...HIGH PLATFORMS MAY SEE GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE VALUES. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT ON THURSDAY...SO CONTINUE TO THINK
WINDS WILL BE 20-30KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHER PLATFORMS
HAVING GALE FORCE GUSTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 25KTS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL
NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN). ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN 0.15 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 30S) AND BRING A
STOP TO THE SNOWMELT.
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY (TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY WELL
ABOVE FREEZING) AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE
EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL
THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR
THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE
FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
445 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. ANOTHER FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THAT CAME ONSHORE OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DRIVER FOR INTENSIFYING THE LOW IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MOISTURE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE HAS LED TO SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND EVEN PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOSER TO
UPPER MICHIGAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING EXPERIENCED BUT
THOSE MID CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING INTO THE 20S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA UNDER LIGHT WINDS FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...THOSE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MID
CLOUDS SHIFTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THEY SHIFT TO THE EAST. THESE
MID CLOUDS WILL BE CAUSED BY BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING
UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND PULLING MUCH WARMER
AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BROAD
WAA...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TO STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN (CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
850-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) AND AWAY FROM THE VERY DRY AIR BELOW
7KFT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA TODAY WILL LEAD TO AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY TODAY.
MODELS ARE INDICATING 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AT LEAST 8C BY 00Z
THURSDAY OVER THE WEST. NOT SURE IF MIXING WILL GET THAT HIGH...BUT
FEEL THAT MIXING TO 900MB IS REASONABLE. THINK THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OVERESTIMATE THE COOLING FROM THE EXISTING SNOWPACK AND WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THE WEST. THIS WAS THE CASE
FOR THIS PAST WEEKEND AND EARLIER THIS WORK WEEK AND WITH THE
INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. THEREFORE...HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER THE WEST HALF
AND COOLER VALUES OVER THE EAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING JAMES BAY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWESTERN MICHIGAN AND THEN CONTINUE EAST WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THERE ARE A COUPLE ITEMS OF CONCERN AS IT HEADS INTO THE
CWA. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW STAYS OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL PUSH
FROM THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND IN
WISCONSIN. COULD LEAD TO SOME GAPS IN THE COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
SOME SCATTERING OF THE PRECIP AS THE FORCING SPLITS...BUT FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS TO PUT A 2-3HR PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS IN FOR WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH IT AS IT DEPARTS. AS FOR TIMING...HAVE THE SHOWERS MOVING
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND 06Z...CENTRAL AROUND 08Z...EASTERN AROUND
10Z. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. DID CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEBATED PUSHING
THEM EAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN SINCE THE STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR COVERAGE TO SCATTER OUT
AND HEADING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...OPTED TO LEAVE OUT.
IN ADDITION...03Z SREF CALIBRATED 3HR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ONLY HAD A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF 5 PERCENT PROBS IN THE CWA. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE POTENTIAL SPLITTING...LEFT QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER 0.1 INCH TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
FINALLY...THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND THEN
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEHIND THE
FRONT. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE LONG TERM IS IN STORE AS EASTERN CANADIAN
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING REDEVELOPS AND SENDS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
MOVING TO THE EAST AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
MANITOBA BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
295K ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ACROSS THE FAR EAST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. WHILE
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE MID LEVELS/5-10KFT...THE LOW-LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
VIRGA WITH ONLY ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND.
FAVORABLE FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT OF A DEVELOPING
90-100KT UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE AVAILABLE FORCING ACROSS UPPER MI TO A NARROW
BAND OF FGEN ALONG A SFC COLD FRONT. OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LOW...SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN A NARROW 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW ALONG THE FRONT. THE
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE QUITE SCATTERED...SO DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING OVER CHANCE POPS.
SKIES WILL THEN QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAD TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM LAKE SHADOWS
DOWNWIND OF WESTERLY WINDS.
WIND WILL BE OF NOTE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING S
TO SW GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NOTED BY A 50 TO 60KT H8 LLJ. AREAS
FAVORED BY S TO SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM WITH
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COMBINED WITH A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY
AND SFC DEWPOINTS RISING ABOVE 32F...THE SNOWPACK ACROSS UPPER MI
MAY BEGIN QUICKLY ERODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TO EACH THEIR OWN WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE
BEGINNING FRIDAY...WITH SOLUTIONS FRIDAY EVENING RANGING FROM A
STRONG LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/GFS/ TO WEAK RIDGING/NAM/ TO
NW FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES/GEM AND ECMWF/. THE GFS SOLUTION IS
A MAJOR DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO
SHOWING SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING FOR THIS REASON. WHILE THE
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS A WETTER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
STRETCH...TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS DOMINATE PRECIP-TYPE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. GIVEN SOME CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH
THE ECMWF...WILL USE THAT TO FORMULATE MUCH OF THE REMAINING
FORECAST.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER HUDSON BAY FRIDAY WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND GRAZE
LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM
THE LEFT-EXIT OF A DEVELOPING UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES A SFC TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
A COMPLICATED MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN RESULT IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS DEEP TROUGHING
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THIS WEEK TRACKS SE TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ROUND THE LARGER TROUGH...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BEFORE...MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR...SO
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO IS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...IF THIS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...UPPER MI WOULD BE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER MODERATE
TO HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. FOR
COMPARISON...THE GFS AND GEM DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM/PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY.
IF ANYTHING...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING BACK THE PATTERN FELT OVER
MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO
THE TIGHTENING SW GRAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SW WINDS
TO GUST BTWN 20-25 KT BY LATE WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (35-45KTS)...BUT THINKING THE ICE
COVER ON THE LAKE WILL HELP CREATE A MARINE LAYER TO KEEP THE
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BUT...HIGH PLATFORMS MAY SEE GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE VALUES. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT ON THURSDAY...SO CONTINUE TO THINK
WINDS WILL BE 20-30KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHER PLATFORMS
HAVING GALE FORCE GUSTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 25KTS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL
NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN). ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN 0.15 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 30S) AND BRING A
STOP TO THE SNOWMELT.
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY (TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY WELL
ABOVE FREEZING) AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE
EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL
THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR
THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE
FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS
PRODUCED SOME MID CLOUDS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BUT THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS OF SUN TO
SEND AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 40S WITH EVEN SOME 50S REPORTED SCNTRL
UPPER MI (AT LEAST 55F IN KMNM) DESPITE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING 5H HGTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. SFC RDG WILL
ALLOW LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES...STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN TO THE NW WILL GENERATE SOME PCPN
ACROSS MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A LONG
ENOUGH PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW
FOR A DECENT TEMP FALL. CONTINUED TO KEEP MINS TOWARD THE LOWER END
OF AVBL GUIDANCE...REPRESENTED BY THE BIAS CORRECTED REGIONAL AND
GLOBAL GEM. TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS SHOULD FALL TO THE MID
TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN TO THE LOW TEENS OVER THE E.
WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WILL SPREAD SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AFFECT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE
BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTH SHIFTING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA AND LEADING TO A FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS.
STRONG WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
(850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -2C AT 12Z TO AT LEAST 6C BY 00Z THURSDAY)
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND 40S OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF CWA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN. SW WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON (15-25KTS)
AND THAT WILL ALLOW THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO WARM
AND LIMIT LAKE BREEZE COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE LONG TERM IS IN STORE AS EASTERN CANADIAN
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING REDEVELOPS AND SENDS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
MOVING TO THE EAST AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
MANITOBA BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
295K ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ACROSS THE FAR EAST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. WHILE
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE MID LEVELS/5-10KFT...THE LOW-LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
VIRGA WITH ONLY ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND.
FAVORABLE FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT OF A DEVELOPING
90-100KT UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE AVAILABLE FORCING ACROSS UPPER MI TO A NARROW
BAND OF FGEN ALONG A SFC COLD FRONT. OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LOW...SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN A NARROW 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW ALONG THE FRONT. THE
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE QUITE SCATTERED...SO DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING OVER CHANCE POPS.
SKIES WILL THEN QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAD TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM LAKE SHADOWS
DOWNWIND OF WESTERLY WINDS.
WIND WILL BE OF NOTE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING S
TO SW GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NOTED BY A 50 TO 60KT H8 LLJ. AREAS
FAVORED BY S TO SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM WITH
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COMBINED WITH A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY
AND SFC DEWPOINTS RISING ABOVE 32F...THE SNOWPACK ACROSS UPPER MI
MAY BEGIN QUICKLY ERODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TO EACH THEIR OWN WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE
BEGINNING FRIDAY...WITH SOLUTIONS FRIDAY EVENING RANGING FROM A
STRONG LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/GFS/ TO WEAK RIDGING/NAM/ TO
NW FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES/GEM AND ECMWF/. THE GFS SOLUTION IS
A MAJOR DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO
SHOWING SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING FOR THIS REASON. WHILE THE
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS A WETTER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
STRETCH...TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS DOMINATE PRECIP-TYPE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. GIVEN SOME CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH
THE ECMWF...WILL USE THAT TO FORMULATE MUCH OF THE REMAINING
FORECAST.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER HUDSON BAY FRIDAY WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND GRAZE
LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM
THE LEFT-EXIT OF A DEVELOPING UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES A SFC TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
A COMPLICATED MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN RESULT IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS DEEP TROUGHING
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THIS WEEK TRACKS SE TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ROUND THE LARGER TROUGH...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BEFORE...MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR...SO
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO IS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...IF THIS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...UPPER MI WOULD BE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER MODERATE
TO HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. FOR
COMPARISON...THE GFS AND GEM DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM/PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY.
IF ANYTHING...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING BACK THE PATTERN FELT OVER
MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO
THE TIGHTENING SW GRAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SW WINDS
TO GUST BTWN 20-25 KT BY LATE WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES FROM
MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. WINDS WILL REACH THE 20-30KT
RANGE...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH
PLATFORMS WILL REACH GALE FORCE AT SOME POINT WED/THU. STABLE
LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL WORK AGAINST STRONGER WINDS...BUT
HEALTHY PRES FALLS AHEAD OF LOW LATE WED AND HEALTHY PRES RISES
ARRIVING BEHIND TROF PASSAGE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING MAY BE WHAT
PUSHES WINDS TO GALE FORCE FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THU
NIGHT/FRI. INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. LOWS WELL
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE
MOST ABUNDANT SNOWMELT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH DEWPOINTS ABOVE 32F AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS
THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
429 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
NOTE: THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW AS WELL.
DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS TODAY BY 2-4 DEGREES BASED ON
00-06Z MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ADJUSTING FOR THE COOL BIAS OVER THE
PAST WEEK. THE COOL BIAS WITH FORECAST HIGHS WERE APPARENT IN BOTH
THE MPX FORECAST AND IN MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS ON THE
HIGH END OF THE MODEL SOLUTION ENVELOPE...WHICH IS A GOOD PLACE TO
BE ON DAYS LIKE TODAY. WE ALMOST NEVER GO WARM ENOUGH...AND MODEL
OUTPUT TENDS TO RUN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL/MOIST WITH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. WE USED A BLENDED MODEL FORECAST AND THEN
ADJUSTED UP 5 DEGREES BASED ON THE 925-850MB THERMAL PROFILE AND
STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS A BATCH
OF 10KFT CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS MORNING...BUT WE THINK THIS WILL
CLEAR BY THE LATE MORNING AND LEAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE DOESN`T ARRIVE IN FAR EASTERN MN
AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL 18-00Z...SO BE PATIENT WITH THE WARMING
TODAY IN THESE AREAS. WE MIGHT END UP WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
4-4:30PM...RATHER THAN 2-3PM. BEHIND THE WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL COME A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE COULDN`T REALLY JUSTIFY RAISING POPS
TOO MUCH FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOR TONIGHT. WE DID
INCLUDE LIKELY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BASICALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE POST-FRONTAL SATURATION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
SOUTH OF HERE WE HAVE SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS AND A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS LIGHT QPF...BUT PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND AND
THERE MIGHT BE A LOT OF VIRGA. MOST AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE TRACE-0.04" RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FIRST OFF...IT`S NICE TO SEE THE 09.00Z ECMWF MOSTLY REMOVED THE
TWO SNOW EVENTS IT HAD LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS STARTING TO GARNER SOME
ATTENTION. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED MODEL OUTPUT IS STILL NOT
OPTIMISTIC IN MAINTAINING ANY SORT OF WARMTH AS WE TRANSITION FROM
SPLIT FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO A PRONOUNCED CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT COLD DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL /POTENTIALLY AS COLD AS 20-25 BELOW NORMAL/ FOR A COUPLE
DAYS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF YOU BUY THE SLOWER...DEEPER ECMWF.
THOSE 850 MB TEMPS EARLY TO MID WEEK ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF
FEBRUARY. THE GFS ISN`T QUITE AS BAD MON-WED...BUT THERE ARE SOME
GLARING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
THERE ARE A COUPLE DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. THERE
IS A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT THE FORCING ISN`T
OVERLY STRONG. WE COULD STILL SHAKE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES ON SATURDAY WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS AND RESPECTABLE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSING UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD
ALSO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 20-40DM HEIGHT FALLS
DURING THE DAY. SO...THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE FORCING WILL ALSO BE OVER A LARGE AREA...SO IF
THE SIGNAL CONTINUES...WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MOVE TOWARD LIKELY
POPS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
VFR XPCTD THRU THIS TAF PERIOD FOR ALL BUT KAXN DUE TO EARLY
EVENING INCOMING CONVECTION. AHEAD OF THAT FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THRU
DAYBREAK TMRW...THEN HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE W AHEAD OF A
CDFNT. MID-TO-UPR LVL CIGS DEVELOP LATE OVER WRN MN...BUT SCT
CLOUDS LOOK TO PREVAIL FOR CENTRAL-ERN MN INTO WRN WI TMRW. IN WRN
MN...SCTD SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS INFILTRATE THE AREA AFTER 00Z AND THIS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY KAXN. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO GO WITH VSBY LOWER
THAN VFR BUT DID INDICATE MVFR CEILING. WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN
AS THEY START OUT BACKING TO S WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO ARND 5 KT
OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN SLY THRU DAYBREAK AND INCRS TO ARND 10
KT. AFTER DAYBREAK...STRONG SW WINDS DEVELOP WITH SPEEDS APCHG
20G30KT...AND SUCH SPEEDS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT TMRW AFTN AND
EVE AS WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY TO W LATE.
KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT...ALTHOUGH MIDLVL CEILINGS DEVELOP LATE WED
EVE INTO THU MRNG AHEAD OF AN APCHG CDFNT AND SOME SCTD -SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS BACK TO S ARND MIDNIGHT WHILE SPEEDS DROP TO NEAR
5 KT. STRONGER SPEEDS XPCTD ARND SUNRISE TMRW...AND SPEEDS
CONTINUE TO INCRS WHILE VEERING TO 210-230 TMRW AFTN. PREVAILING
WLY XPCTD BY TMRW EVE WITH SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED SPEEDS. AS FOR
CLOUDS...SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT THEN HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP DURG
THE DAY TMRW WITH UPR- LVL CIGS LIKELY BY TMRW EVE THEN CIGS DROP
GOING INTO TMRW NGT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA EARLY. WINDS NW 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG
WARNING ACROSS MOST OF THE WIND FAVORED AREAS. THE WEATHER ELEMENT
WITH THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IS STILL THE HUMIDITY. TOOK A
FAIR AMOUNT OF WORK IN THE GRIDS TO GET HUMIDITIES DOWN INTO THE
20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THESE TYPES OF WEATHER
PATTERNS...FORECAST MODELS RUN A COOL/MOIST BIAS...THE BIG QUESTION
FOR TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WE OVER CORRECTED FOR SAID COOL/MOIST
BIAS. FOR THE CURRENT HUMIDITY FORECAST TO WORK OUT...WE WILL NEED
TO SEE MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD TO ABOVE 800 MB AS THE RAP AND NAM
INDICATE AND ALSO HOPE WE DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH POOLING OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NODAK/NW MN BY THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30-35
MPH WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT...IT WAS
DECIDED BY ALL OFFICES TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND GO WITH THE
EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN RED FLAG
CRITERIA BEING MET IN SW MN /WHERE INITIAL WARNING WAS ISSUED/ AND
DOES GRADUALLY DECREASE SOME AS YOU HEAD EAST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ047-048-054>058-064>067-073>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JPC
FIRE WEATHER...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Good evening to all across extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks.
Showers were gradually dissipating over the eastern Ozarks as we
approached the 7 pm hour. RAP analysis suggested that most
unstable CAPES had fallen to below 100 j/kg in this area.
Therefore we updated the HWO and took thunder out of the forecast.
We also loaded in the CONSSHORT hourly temperature guidance
through the rest of tonight. This guidance gave us lows ranging
from the low to mid 30s. Given the clear skies and calm surface
winds, frost is likely in nearly all locations tonight.
Just a reminder, frost and freeze headlines are scheduled to begin
next week.
Have a good one !
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
A digging upper level jet and shortwave over the western cwfa on
the back side of a longer wave trough axis over the MS Vly is
producing some scattered showers and thunderstorms. An uptick in
precip coverage has occurred with diurnal heating and increased
but still modest mlcape. Some very small hail has occurred with
low freezing levels/cold air aloft. This should be the last of the
precip as the trough shifts east and strong mid level height rises
move into the region from the west. Drier air will advect into the
region tonight as a sfc ridge axis moves overhead by 12z Wed.
Light winds and a clearing sky should allow frost to form with
temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s.
A dry south return flow will increase on Wed with breezy
conditions, especially over the northwest half of the cwfa.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be a concern. Some greening
of grass fuels has occurred over the past couple of weeks, and the
main concerns fuels wise will be longer dead/cured grasses and forest
leaf litter. No fire weather headlines are planned, but will
continue to highlight elevated concerns in the HWO. After a chilly
start Wed, temperatures will warm nicely into the mid 60s to low 70s
with warmest temperatures over the western cwfa.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
Mild/warm weather will continue Wed night and Thu ahead of an
approaching sfc trough/front. A fast moving shortwave will aid in
overall lift to produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms near
the sfc boundary as it`s progress slows over the area Fri.
A more substantial upper level system will develop over the
Western U.S. as northern stream system phases with a Pacific based
system. A prolonged and increasingly more substantial Gulf
moisture fetch will develop over the weekend with precip
developing along an approaching sfc boundary. Will have fairly
high rain/tstm chances Sunday and Sunday night.
Will have to watch the frost/freeze potential early next week with
cold Canadian air nosing into the area behind the front. The 00z
ECMWF, and to some extent the 12z GEM, are more bullish with
colder air versus the 12z GFS. Will watch trends.
&&
.AVIATION...
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.
Light and variable winds will continue, and eventually increase to
around 10 mph from the south southwest on Wednesday morning.
Skies should remain clear, and no obstructions to visibilities are
expected.
Safe Travels.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHER PLAINS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SKIES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
AT 08Z WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 40 TO 45 MOST LOCATIONS. THE UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...NOT TOO FAR FROM NORTHERN MONTANA ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FOR TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BREAK
DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS ACROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS INTO
NORTHERN WYOMING. AS THIS OCCURS...A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS TOP OUT AROUND 20C...AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...AND
WITH THIS SETUP GUIDANCE TO LIKELY UNDER FCST HIGHS. ALSO WILL SEE A
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WIND 15 TO 30 MPH AND CONTINUED FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 80.
FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA
BY 07Z THURSDAY. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 10 MPH BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PCPN TO DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AS
IT IS PUSHING INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS. HOWEVER...PCPN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE LI`S WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WHERE MARGINAL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NCTRL
WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL 06Z THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS
THERE AFTER. FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE I80 CORRIDOR AFTER 02Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
12Z THURSDAY AND BEYOND. LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
USHER A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...SOLID SURFACE HEATING WILL WORK WITH STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 AS THE WAVE APPROACHES.
THEREAFTER THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
WAVE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REMAINS
SEASONAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER A LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA PROFILE. HIGHS WILL
RETURN BACK INTO THE 70 FOR ALL LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AS THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND CURED
FUELS. ATTM MINIMUM RH LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON /~20 PERCENT/...WITH THE LOWEST
READINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FIRE ZONES /204 & 210/. WIND SPEEDS
ARE IN QUESTION TOO...WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL OF
LESS THAN 20 MPH. ATTM NO ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED.
FOR SATURDAY...MILD CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WILL USHER A STRONG CANADIAN COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ATOP WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH STRONG CAA FILLING SOUTH...BUT THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ARRIVAL SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE FRONT ARRIVES
LACKING ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE FOR QPF...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS COME BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY. STRONG CAA
TO FILTER SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHILE A SECONDARY PIECE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE KEYING IN ON A DEFINED FRONTOGENETIC BAND
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EXTENDED NORTHEAST
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. H85 T/S ARE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW...BUT 2M T/S ARE INDICATED TO REMAIN ABOVE 0C
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WILL RETAIN RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX AS
THE PRIMARY PTYPES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT IF SNOW WERE TO
FALL...IT MAY STRUGGLE TO COLLECT ON ANYTHING BESIDE GRASSY
SURFACES. BEYOND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY QUICK TO FORCE THE
COLD AIR EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE WARM UP WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS AN ADDITIONAL WAVE SHOULD FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME MIDWEEK...WITH LIGHT QPF POSSIBLE. ECMWF GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER WEAK ARCTIC HIGH...THE GFS EVENTUALLY DROPS A CANADIAN
HIGH SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT IS 24-36 SLOWER THAN THE EC
CAMP. SO BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...FORECAST CONSISTENCY IS LOW...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THEN A FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME
MIDDLE CLOUDS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY TO 14-18G24-28KT BY 18Z. WIND WILL THEN DECREASE SLIGHTLY
DURING THE EVENING BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO 310-340 AT
12-14G22-24KT. ALSO...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER 02Z...BUT THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE HIGH AND
THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING AT ANY ONE SITE IS VERY
LOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
HIGHS AROUND 80 TODAY...WILL COMBINE WITH DRY AIR TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE 25 TO 30 AND
SEE LITTLE REASON FOR DEW POINTS TO BE HIGHER TODAY. FOLLOWED LAST COUPLE
OF EVENTS AND DROPPED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING MODEL GUIDANCE.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 07Z RAP MODEL FORECASTING DEW POINTS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS FROM THEDFORD SOUTHWEST THROUGH IMPERIAL WITH LOWER 20S
ELSEWHERE...NOT READY TO GO THAT LOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW POINT
TRENDS CLOSELY TODAY. RESULTING RH VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MORNING AND INCREASE
FURTHER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL AT TIMES IN SOME
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO
25 TO 30 MPH BY 21Z. THUS RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS ON TRACK TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
545 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN NORTH
OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY OFFSHORE DURING
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL UPDATE EARLY TO RAISE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA AND ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. PER LATEST RUNS
OF THE 3KM HRRR...4 KM WRF AND RAP MODELS...BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH
AXIS OF 500 MB TROUGH SWINGING EAST...IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND GRADUAL DRYING OF THE COLUMN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THINK ANY PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND 15Z WILL
BE MINIMAL. WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...EXCEPT LOWER
60S OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SCOUR
OUT TONIGHT AS AXIS OF MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS AWAY FROM THE WATER WILL RANGE FROM 43 TO 48
DEGREES WITH LOWER 50S OUTER BANKS AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THEM IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT THE ECMWF LINES UP BEST
WITH HPC SURFACE SOLUTION. RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH WEATHER GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH A RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY THEN SHIFTING EAST IN ADVANCE OF RATHER DEEP UPPER
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE
COAST AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SO NO RAIN IS FORECAST. FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN TUESDAY INCREASING TO
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE
CURRENTLY BUT AXIS OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.
MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KISO...KOAJ
AND KEWN. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. ONLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...GOOD FLYING WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOW ENOUGH OF A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WHERE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUB-VFR CIG/VSBY POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT AREA TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NEAR DIAMOND BUOY WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
25 KNOTS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET...BUT SOME 6 FOOT SEAS
ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
SLATED TO END FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO LEGS AT 7 AM AND THIS WILL
PROBABLY WORK OUT. OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS...SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE DROPPED BY LATE
TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE
HOLD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY THURSDAY
MORNING MOST AREAS BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL THEN BE THE RULE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15-20 KNOTS
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OR ALBEMARLE
SOUND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS A RESULT WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT
NORTH SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15
KNOTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
153 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM TUESDAY...
A LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY WED...WHILE A TRAILING
ONE WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE SAME AREAS WED AFT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PAIR OF TROUGHS HAS SUPPORTED AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF 5-10
THOUSAND FT STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE OH...TN...AND LOWER MS
VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PAST AFT-EVE.
THOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS STILL VERY SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO JUST A
COUPLE OF THOUSAND FT LAYER BELOW H7 IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
PER 00Z RNK AND GSO RAOB DATA...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
MOISTURE/SATURATION WILL DEEPEN INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE OVER
EAST-CENTRAL NC...ALBEIT ONLY BRIEFLY...OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH
OF A SIGNAL FROM NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING FROM RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP...TO WARRANT A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SOLID
RAIN CHANCES (BUT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT. THIS LIGHT RAIN...THE BACK EDGE OF WHICH
MAY EDGE WEST TO NEAR RALEIGH AND ROANOKE RAPIDS...WILL THEN MOVE
QUICKLY EAST INTO THE NC COASTAL AREAS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
LOWS...AMIDST ONLY WEAK CAA...AND HINDERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
THICKENING-DEEPENING CLOUD COVER...ARE LIKELY TO ONLY DIP INTO THE
MID 40S OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE 0ZZ SFC DEWPOINTS WERE
RUNNING IN THE MID 30S...TO LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF
THE EARLIER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A FINAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...MAINLY BETWEEN AROUND
850 AND 500 MB REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
NOTABLE DRYING ABOVE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD AND SOME
MODEST SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY. BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE
TO 850 LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9 DEG/KM WED AFTERNOON WITH 850 TO 700
OR 500 MB LAPSE RATES RANGING BETWEEN 7 AND 8 DEG C/KM. SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIMIT
SURFACE AND MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES TO LESS THAN 100 J/KG. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS TOWARD MIDDAY AND THEN DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND UPDRAFTS LIKELY WONT
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT THIS SHOULD BE WATCHED AS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD INCLUDE SOME SMALL
HAIL WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5-6KFT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CHILLY. RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY FAVORABLE. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
STABILIZED AND MODERATED SLIGHTLY FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WHEN IT
SUGGESTED A POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. MOST RECENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR GREENSBORO HAD A
LOW TEMP OF 41 FROM THE OPERATIONAL RUN...40 FROM A 21 MEMBER MEAN
AND A COLDEST MEMBER WITH A LOW OF 39. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY FROST
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY...INITIATING
A WARMING TREND WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZE. RISING HEIGHTS SHOWING A
WARMUP OF AROUND 3 DEGREES...TAKING US UP TO 70-75 UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. MILD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO PLACE WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WARMING TREND CONTINUES
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING 75 TO 80 AFTER A MORNING MIN IN THE
UPPER 40S.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL NUDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH AND INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MEAGER...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF STATES...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WEAKENING FRONT STALLS OVER OR SOUTH OF
THE AREA. SATURDAY MORNING MINS WILL BE MILD...IN THE LOWER
50S...WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY PRODUCING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REESTABLISH THE WARM AIRMASS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WITH DEEPER AND STRENGTHENING FLOW
AHEAD OF UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE LOWER PLAINS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE WEST SUNDAY AS HIGHS AGAIN REACH 75 TO
80...AS THE UPPER TROF SHARPENS...THERE WILL BE A SOLID CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MONDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS 75 TO 80.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIVERGENCE AS TO THE EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURAL DETAILS OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
REGARDLESS...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL BE ON THE RISE
AS THE SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF FEATURES WILL BE PRESENT WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE STRONGER CONVECTION...DEEP MOISTURE...UPPER DIFFLUENCE...LOW
LEVEL JET >45KT...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS LINE UP IN LATER RUNS.
HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO HEAVY CLOUD COVERAGE AND
RAIN...IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND TODAY.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW AND IS
HELPING TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFAY/KRDU/KRWI... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT KFAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. IF ANY
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OCCUR EXPECT THEY WOULD BE BRIEF AND PROBABLY
FROM REDUCED VISIBILITIES (MVFR). THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL NC TAF SITES BY 12Z OR SO. THUS... WILL JUST ADD
A TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWERS FOR THIS
MORNING.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA MID TO
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING
ANY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE AT
KRDU/KFAY/KRWI. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THREAT
OF AT LEAST SHOWERS FROM THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
BE AT ITS BEST. EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE GREATEST THIS AFTERNOON. THUS... CANT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER... GIVEN COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT
MOISTURE/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEGINNING TO PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD: HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WIL PRODUCE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/BLAES
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
426 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY OFF
THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLS NEAR
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN THE
PIEDMONT AND WAS MOVING EAST. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 8AM. THE SECOND CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS WAS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE
LARGE LAPSE RATES. WITH SMALL CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL
ENERGY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. THE 06Z RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTED THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME AND LOCATION WOULD BE FROM 2-6PM EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ENOUGH CLOUDS TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HAVE STAYED
CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
WILL EXTENDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD...EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE IN THE SHELTERED AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ONCE THE SUN SETS. AGAIN BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GOOD WAA ON SW FLOW THURSDAY PUSHES H85 TEMPS FROM ABOUT 3C IN THE
MORNING TO NEARLY 10C IN THE WEST BY LATER THURSDAY. WITH CLOUDS
HOLDING OFF...MANY LOCALES SHOULD REACH 70F. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SINK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. BUT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW DOWNSLOPING WIND...MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...AND NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
EVEN ACROSS SE WEST VA. FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS SNEAK
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS...BUT
ONLY WORTHY OF A SLT CHC POP AT THIS TIME. MOST SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER SE WEST VA...SPECIFICALLY
GREENBRIER COUNTY. DESPITE CLOUDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX T
WILL REMAIN WARM WITH H85 TEMPS CLOSE TO 10C EACH DAY. AS THE FRONT
LOSES DEFINITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WITH SOME CLEARING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE WPC GUIDANCE/12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR
THE EXTENDED. MAIN SYSTEM SHOULD WORK TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH FULL SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS.
COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ON
MONDAY. FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OVER US TUESDAY WITH SFC LOW MOVING
ALONG IT TO KEEP THREAT OF RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...COOLING OFF MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HAVE ADDED LIGHT SHOWERS IN FOR KDAN
AND KLYH EARLY THIS MORNING.
MORE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST REGION FROM
THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
OVERHEAD. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN...ALSO WILL BE LOOKING FOR A
PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR CEILINGS AT BLF AS MOISTURE BECOMES BANKED
AGAINST THE NEARBY TERRAIN.
IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE HINTING AT WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS MORNING AS
THE TROUGH PASSES...AND EXPECT GUSTS REACHING TO 20KTS AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY FOR ROA WESTWARD...BEFORE SPEEDS FALL OFF
FOR THE NIGHT. THE STRONGER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ARRIVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 425 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON HAS CRESTED AND WILL FALL BACK BELOW
FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
AT 3 AM...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A 925 AND 850 MB
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY 6C THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER 4C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 10K
FEET THIS MORNING...AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING LOOKS TO BE TOO COOL WITH ITS SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND THIS AFFECTS HOW DEEP IT WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON.
IT KEEPS THE 850 TO 800 MB CAP IN PLACE. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND
RAP HAS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THUS IT IS ABLE TO MIX
DOWN THE DRIER AIR FROM THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER ABOVE THE
CAP...THUS IT LOWERS DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.
CONSIDERING THAT THE MOS AND THE SUPER BLEND HAS BEEN RUNNING A
BIT COOL OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS...OPTED TO GO WITH THE WARMER NAM
AND RAP FOR TODAY. WITH THIS SAID...DO THINK THAT THEY MAY BE
MIXED TOO MUCH...SO WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AND ONLY MIXED UP INTO
THE 800 TO 775 MB RANGE. THIS RESULTED IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 70
TO 75 DEGREES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND 63 TO 70 ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /AROUND 25 PERCENT/...STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS...AND DRY FINE FUELS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR...THERE WILL BE A DANGER FOR WILD FIRES ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE WHO PLAN ON DOING
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD MOVE THEIR PLANS TO ANOTHER DAY. IN
ADDITION...ALL CIGARETTE BUTTS SHOULD BE DISCARDED INTO PROPER
PROPER CONTAINERS.
FOR TONIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF IT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS MODERATE 290 TO 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND IT LOWERS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO
LESS THAN 10 MB. DUE TO THIS...WENT MORE WITH THE GFS...GEM...AND
ECMWF THAN THE DRY NAM. WITH THIS SAID...CONCERNED THAT THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO WITH ML CAPES UP TO 250 J/KG INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 09.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO THE BE THE FASTEST WITH MOVING THIS FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO
1.25 INCH RANGE...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. THE
HIGHEST TOTAL LOOK TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS A WAVE MOVES
ALONG THIS FRONT.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE
TOWARD THE GFS WITH ITS LATEST RUN. AS A RESULT...ITS SNOW TOTALS
ARE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT IT SHOWED DURING ITS PREVIOUS 3 RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
DIURNAL CUMULUS AND SHOWERS DYING QUICKLY. ONLY CIRRUS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF MID CLOUD. AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WITH TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA ADVANCING INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME RATHER GUSTY DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MECHANICAL TURBULANCE LIKELY...WITH IMPACTS FELT
MOST BY SMALLER AIRCRAFT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS /SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH/...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /AROUND 25 PERCENT/...AND DRY FINE
FUELS...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR WILD FIRES TODAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS ALSO DISCOURAGED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 DUE TO THE HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THOSE WHO PLAN ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD MOVE THEIR
PLANS TO ANOTHER DAY. IN ADDITION...ALL CIGARETTE BUTTS SHOULD BE
DISCARDED INTO PROPER CONTAINERS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...MW
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
442 AM MDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVE/CHINOOK WINDS IN
THE NORMAL SPOTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT
TIMES. HRRR SIMULATIONS DOING A DECENT JOB KEEPING THE WINDS IN
AND VERY CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH 15 MINUTE OUTPUT EVEN
DEPICTING THE OCCASIONAL FLOW REVERSAL BEING OBSERVED AT A FEW
SPOTS. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS HEATING PROGRESSES
TODAY WITH MORE GENERAL AND WIDESPREAD WESTERLIES ACROSS PRETTY
MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED AGAINST HOISTING A
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE
MARGINAL WITH AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ROUGHLY A KGXY TO KAKO LINE
BEING THE MOST FAVORED. REGARDING CLOUDS AND WEATHER CIRA
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DOING A NICE JOB WITH THE LEE WAVE
CLOUD THIS MORNING...HOLDING ONTO IT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
SOME WEAK QG LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT LEAST THIS
EVENING IF NOT A BIT LONGER. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONSIDERING THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE THAT IS EXPECTED BUT A STRAY HIGH-BASED SHOWER IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. PRESENT TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 06-07Z AT THE NORTHERN BORDER...DENVER AROUND 09Z
AND SOUTHERN CWA BY END OF PERIOD APPEARS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME THREAT OF POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER
CLOUDINESS.
.LONG TERM...WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THU AS A WK FNT
AFFECTS NERN CO. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LVL MOISTURE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS. OVER NERN CO THERE
IS SOME LIMITED CAPE FM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING SO WILL KEEP IN
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AS A WK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW TRACKS ACROSS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL COOL
READINGS BACK INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO.
ON FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY
LIMITED SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE. AFTN HIGHS WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS NERN CO. BY SAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE SE FM THE NWRN US WHICH WILL LEAVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
OVER NRN CO. SOME MID LVL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY AFTN AND
COMBINED WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. AFTN
HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER NERN CO.
FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A SHARPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA. IN
ADDITION A STG CDFNT WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO SAT NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW THRU THE DAY ON SUN. MEANWHILE SHOULD SEE A GOOD SHOT
MID LVL QG ASCENT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WELL. LATEST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PCPN COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 12Z SUN.
OVERALL THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND MTN AREAS. ALONG THE FRONT RANGE COULD SEE SOME DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER WRM GROUND TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO ROADS.
BY MON THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA WITH A RETURN OF DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...LITTLE OF CONCERN REGARDING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LOWER
CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITIES AFTER AROUND 09Z OR SO WHICH
COULD LAST INTO MID MORNING THURSDAY. WINDS AS USUAL ARE
INTERESTING. DECENT MOUNTAIN WAVE/CHINOOK/ROTOR EVENT IMPACTING
KBJC WITH KAPA AND KDEN EXPERIENCING RELATIVELY NORMAL DRAINAGE
FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MORE GENERAL BRISK WESTERLY FLOW AT ALL
TERMINALS BY MIDDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE AGAIN GOING TO DRAINAGE AFTER DARK. EXPECT A
SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST AROUND 09Z BEHIND COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1049 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEEKEND`S WEATHER. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FORM THE WEST LATE MONDAY PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT JUST SOME SCATTERED
FAIR WX CU THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST RAP MOISTURE ANALYSIS.
TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...TRENDS AND LAMP
DATA SET.
A SUFFICIENT GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NW FLOW...AND DEEP MIXING. THE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF A SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS LIKELY ALONG
THE N SHORE OF LI.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD POP THE FAIR WX CU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DAYTIME CU QUICKLY DISSIPATES WITH SKC TNGT. THE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE CWA...SO WINDS WILL GO CALM IN MOST SPOTS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WENT BLW THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS A RESULT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
READING IN THE TEENS IN THE PINE BARRENS AT KFOK.
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THU. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER ACROSS LI AND CSTL CT. SLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
BRISK IN THESE SAME LOCATIONS AS SEA BREEZE FLOW AUGMENTS THE WIND
FIELDS. THE MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL AMBROSE JET WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 20KT KJFK.
THE SUNSHINE LIKELY TO BE FILTERED SOMEWHAT AS HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE W.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE IS THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR PCPN. DPROG/DT HAS BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SFC WAVE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN VERY ROBUST WITH ITS INCH PLUS PCPN
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANALYSIS OF THE 21Z SREF AND 12/00 GEFS SUGGESTS THESE
ARE OUTLIERS WITH THIS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PCPN. 00Z CANADIAN IS
RATHER DRY FOR FRIDAY AND THE ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS A
POSSIBILITY. THUS HAVE HELD POPS AT 50% DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
GONE TO 60% FOR THE EVENING FOR NOW. IN SUMMARY...FORESEE THIS A
CLOUDY DAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT.
HAVE SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF GFS MOS FOR FRIDAY TEMPS...LOWERING
ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. STILL
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
WEEKEND LOOKS TRANQUIL. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SFC WAVE. THIS ALONG WITH THE 00Z GEFS SUGGESTS KEEPING A 30 POP
EASTERN ZONES FOR SAT AM. WAA ADVECTION ON SUNDAY RESULTS IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIGHT PCPN TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTH AND
WESTERN REGIONS SUN NIGHT DUE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING
LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...SO INTRODUCED POPS THEN...INCREASING DURING THE
DAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. GEFS SUPPORTS A RAIN EVENT LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR THE EAST COAST FOR THOSE
WISHING TO VIEW THE EARLY MORNING LUNAR ECLIPSE ON TUESDAY. EVEN
WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF...WE`D HAVE SIGNIFICANT MID-HIGH
CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN DILEMMA WILL BE WHAT SIDE OF
310 MAGNETIC THAT WINDS WILL RESIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THEY
ARE JUST TO THE RIGHT THIS MORNING...WINDS MAY BACK JUST TO THE
LEFT OF 310 BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z AT THE CITY TERMINALS AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT.
CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNDOWN.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK TO 300/290 DEG MAGNETIC FROM
17-21Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH
20 KT...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AFT 18-19Z. WINDS MAY
BACK TO 290/280 DEG MAGNETIC BETWEEN 17-21Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BACK TO 300/290 DEG MAGNETIC FROM
17-20Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.THU...VFR. S-SW AFTERNOON GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERESTIMATING THE SWELL ON THE OCEAN. AS A
RESULT...HAVE GONE ABV THE DATA THRU THU. THIS KEEPS THE OCEAN AT
SCA LVLS THRU THE PERIOD...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVY ACCORDINGLY.
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS...WINDS TODAY MAINLY AROUND 20KT.
ALTHOUGH AN OCNL GUST TO 25KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...THIS IS FCST TO NOT BE FREQ ENOUGH TO MEET ADVY
CRITERIA. A SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THU HOWEVER AS SLY WINDS
INCREASE.
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW (25-30 KT GUSTS) THU NGT VEERS
TO SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AM. WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF
WINDS FOR SATURDAY...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN
5-6FT SWELL. SEAS SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ALL WATERS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS
SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL DROP INTO THE 20S TODAY AND WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD SHOULD IGNITION
OCCUR. HAVE ISSUED AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU THU. LIGHT PCPN...LESS THAN 1/4
INCH...EXPECTED FRI INTO FRI NGT. SATURDAY. POTENTIAL THOUGH FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS FORESEEN
THOUGH.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
737 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEEKEND`S WEATHER. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FORM THE WEST LATE MONDAY PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 11Z - SKC OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS NOW EAST OF
KMTP. UPDATED CLOUD COVER TO SCT FAIR WX CU THIS AFTN BASED ON
LATEST RAP MOISTURE ANALYSIS. TEMPS ADJUSTED WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...TRENDS AND LAMP DATA SET.
A SUFFICIENT GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NW FLOW...AND DEEP MIXING. THE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF A SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS LIKELY ALONG
THE N SHORE OF LI.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD POP THE FAIR WX CU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DAYTIME CU QUICKLY DISSIPATES WITH SKC TNGT. THE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE CWA...SO WINDS WILL GO CALM IN MOST SPOTS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WENT BLW THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS A RESULT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
READING IN THE TEENS IN THE PINE BARRENS AT KFOK.
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THU. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER ACROSS LI AND CSTL CT. SLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
BRISK IN THESE SAME LOCATIONS AS SEA BREEZE FLOW AUGMENTS THE WIND
FIELDS. THE MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL AMBROSE JET WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 20KT KJFK.
THE SUNSHINE LIKELY TO BE FILTERED SOMEWHAT AS HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE W.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE IS THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR PCPN. DPROG/DT HAS BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SFC WAVE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN VERY ROBUST WITH ITS INCH PLUS PCPN
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANALYSIS OF THE 21Z SREF AND 12/00 GEFS SUGGESTS THESE
ARE OUTLIERS WITH THIS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PCPN. 00Z CANADIAN IS
RATHER DRY FOR FRIDAY AND THE ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS A
POSSIBILITY. THUS HAVE HELD POPS AT 50% DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
GONE TO 60% FOR THE EVENING FOR NOW. IN SUMMARY...FORESEE THIS A
CLOUDY DAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT.
HAVE SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF GFS MOS FOR FRIDAY TEMPS...LOWERING
ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. STILL
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
WEEKEND LOOKS TRANQUIL. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SFC WAVE. THIS ALONG WITH THE 00Z GEFS SUGGESTS KEEPING A 30 POP
EASTERN ZONES FOR SAT AM. WAA ADVECTION ON SUNDAY RESULTS IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIGHT PCPN TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTH AND
WESTERN REGIONS SUN NIGHT DUE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING
LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...SO INTRODUCED POPS THEN...INCREASING DURING THE
DAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. GEFS SUPPORTS A RAIN EVENT LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR THE EAST COAST FOR THOSE
WISHING TO VIEW THE EARLY MORNING LUNAR ECLIPSE ON TUESDAY. EVEN
WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF...WE`D HAVE SIGNIFICANT MID-HIGH
CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY 14/15Z...AND 15 TO 20 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AFTER
SUNDOWN.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST. WINDS MAY BACK TO 300/290 DEG BRIEFLY FROM 18-21Z BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST. WINDS MAY BACK MORE TO 290/280 DEG BETWEEN 18-21Z.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 20KT THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST. WINDS MAY BACK TO 300/290 DEG BRIEFLY FROM 18021Z BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.THU...VFR. S-SW AFTERNOON GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERESTIMATING THE SWELL ON THE OCEAN. AS A
RESULT...HAVE GONE ABV THE DATA THRU THU. THIS KEEPS THE OCEAN AT
SCA LVLS THRU THE PERIOD...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVY ACCORDINGLY.
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS...WINDS TODAY MAINLY AROUND 20KT.
ALTHOUGH AN OCNL GUST TO 25KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...THIS IS FCST TO NOT BE FREQ ENOUGH TO MEET ADVY
CRITERIA. A SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THU HOWEVER AS SLY WINDS
INCREASE.
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW (25-30 KT GUSTS) THU NGT VEERS
TO SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AM. WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF
WINDS FOR SATURDAY...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN
5-6FT SWELL. SEAS SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ALL WATERS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS
SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL DROP INTO THE 20S TODAY AND WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD SHOULD IGNITION
OCCUR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU THU. LIGHT PCPN...LESS THAN 1/4
INCH...EXPECTED FRI INTO FRI NGT. SATURDAY. POTENTIAL THOUGH FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS FORESEEN
THOUGH.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
714 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEEKEND`S WEATHER. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FORM THE WEST LATE MONDAY PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 11Z - SKC OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS NOW EAST OF
KMTP. UPDATED CLOUD COVER TO SCT FAIR WX CU THIS AFTN BASED ON
LATEST RAP MOISTURE ANALYSIS. TEMPS ADJUSTED WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...TRENDS AND LAMP DATA SET.
A SUFFICIENT GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NW FLOW...AND DEEP MIXING. THE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF A SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS LIKELY ALONG
THE N SHORE OF LI.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD POP THE FAIR WX CU.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DAYTIME CU QUICKLY DISSIPATES WITH SKC TNGT. THE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE CWA...SO WINDS WILL GO CALM IN MOST SPOTS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WENT BLW THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS A RESULT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
READING IN THE TEENS IN THE PINE BARRENS AT KFOK.
RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE THU. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER ACROSS LI AND CSTL CT. SLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
BRISK IN THESE SAME LOCATIONS AS SEA BREEZE FLOW AUGMENTS THE WIND
FIELDS. THE MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL AMBROSE JET WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 20KT KJFK.
THE SUNSHINE LIKELY TO BE FILTERED SOMEWHAT AS HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE W.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE IS THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR PCPN. DPROG/DT HAS BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH PCPN WITH THIS FRONT...THOUGH SPECIFIC DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SFC WAVE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN VERY ROBUST WITH ITS INCH PLUS PCPN
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANALYSIS OF THE 21Z SREF AND 12/00 GEFS SUGGESTS THESE
ARE OUTLIERS WITH THIS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PCPN. 00Z CANADIAN IS
RATHER DRY FOR FRIDAY AND THE ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS THIS AS A
POSSIBILITY. THUS HAVE HELD POPS AT 50% DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
GONE TO 60% FOR THE EVENING FOR NOW. IN SUMMARY...FORESEE THIS A
CLOUDY DAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT.
HAVE SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF GFS MOS FOR FRIDAY TEMPS...LOWERING
ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. STILL
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
WEEKEND LOOKS TRANQUIL. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT
SFC WAVE. THIS ALONG WITH THE 00Z GEFS SUGGESTS KEEPING A 30 POP
EASTERN ZONES FOR SAT AM. WAA ADVECTION ON SUNDAY RESULTS IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIGHT PCPN TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTH AND
WESTERN REGIONS SUN NIGHT DUE TO WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING
LOOKS TO BE MONDAY...SO INTRODUCED POPS THEN...INCREASING DURING THE
DAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. GEFS SUPPORTS A RAIN EVENT LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 18 HOURS SLOWER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR THE EAST COAST FOR THOSE
WISHING TO VIEW THE EARLY MORNING LUNAR ECLIPSE ON TUESDAY. EVEN
WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE ECMWF...WE`D HAVE SIGNIFICANT MID-HIGH
CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING...AND 15 TO
20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CALM AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNDOWN.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST. WINDS MAY BACK TO 300/290 DEG BRIEFLY FROM 18-21Z BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST. WINDS MAY BACK MORE TO 290/280 DEG BETWEEN 18-21Z.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 20KT THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST. WINDS MAY BACK TO 300/290 DEG BRIEFLY FROM 18021Z BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BEGIN AN HOUR EARLIER/LATER THAN
FORECAST.
.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.THU...VFR. S-SW AFTERNOON GUSTS 20-25 KT.
.THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERESTIMATING THE SWELL ON THE OCEAN. AS A
RESULT...HAVE GONE ABV THE DATA THRU THU. THIS KEEPS THE OCEAN AT
SCA LVLS THRU THE PERIOD...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVY ACCORDINGLY.
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS...WINDS TODAY MAINLY AROUND 20KT.
ALTHOUGH AN OCNL GUST TO 25KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...THIS IS FCST TO NOT BE FREQ ENOUGH TO MEET ADVY
CRITERIA. A SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THU HOWEVER AS SLY WINDS
INCREASE.
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW (25-30 KT GUSTS) THU NGT VEERS
TO SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AM. WINDS DIMINISH ON FRI...BUT
SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF
WINDS FOR SATURDAY...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN
5-6FT SWELL. SEAS SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ALL WATERS FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS
SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH WILL DROP INTO THE 20S TODAY AND WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD SHOULD IGNITION
OCCUR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO PCPN IS EXPECTED THRU THU. LIGHT PCPN...LESS THAN 1/4
INCH...EXPECTED FRI INTO FRI NGT. SATURDAY. POTENTIAL THOUGH FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS FORESEEN
THOUGH.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LN
MARINE...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
944 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MAIN STORY
THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEREFORE A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THOUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE BAHAMAS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST AND TRANSITIONING TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE WINDS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT WINDS IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY ARE LIKELY IN THE 22 TO 27 KNOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. THE MARINE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS BUT ALSO NEED TO POINT OUT THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND THESE STRONG WINDS OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE THREAT OF GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TODAY-FRIDAY)
BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY
AND BREEZY NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE MID 50S NEAR THE LAKE REGION AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THIS TIME TODAY...WHICH CAN`T BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN
THE 60S THIS MORNING AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER
70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL BE 10-15 DEG COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NWRN INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGH THIS SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
APPROACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 60 77 68 / 0 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 65 78 70 / 0 0 10 10
MIAMI 78 63 78 69 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 75 60 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
755 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THOUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE BAHAMAS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST AND TRANSITIONING TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE WINDS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT WINDS IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY ARE LIKELY IN THE 22 TO 27 KNOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. THE MARINE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS BUT ALSO NEED TO POINT OUT THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND THESE STRONG WINDS OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE THREAT OF GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TODAY-FRIDAY)
BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY
AND BREEZY NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE MID 50S NEAR THE LAKE REGION AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THIS TIME TODAY...WHICH CAN`T BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN
THE 60S THIS MORNING AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER
70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL BE 10-15 DEG COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NWRN INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGH THIS SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
APPROACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 60 77 68 / 0 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 65 78 70 / 0 0 10 10
MIAMI 78 63 78 69 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 75 60 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
700 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE WINDS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT WINDS IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY ARE LIKELY IN THE 22 TO 27 KNOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. THE MARINE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS BUT ALSO NEED TO POINT OUT THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND THESE STRONG WINDS OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE THREAT OF GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TODAY-FRIDAY)
BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY
AND BREEZY NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE MID 50S NEAR THE LAKE REGION AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THIS TIME TODAY...WHICH CAN`T BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN
THE 60S THIS MORNING AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER
70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL BE 10-15 DEG COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NWRN INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGH THIS SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
APPROACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 60 77 68 / 0 0 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 65 78 70 / 0 0 10 10
MIAMI 78 63 78 69 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 75 60 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1029 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...
IT IS VERY COLD ALOFT. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED H5
TEMPERATURES NEAR -25. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS IN THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PLUS THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE. THIS MORNING/S
FFC RAOB INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR ONE-HALF OF AN INCH.
THE FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE. WE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ADDED POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
TIMING THE HRRR SHOWED THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WHICH IS NEAR
THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP THEN
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE LOW AND THERE WILL BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE SPREAD. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
TONIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH A
FLAT FLOW PATTERN IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS REACHES THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNRISE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEARS BETTER WITH LOWS NEAR 40.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. IT WILL BE WARMER AND THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE AIR MASS
IS DRY. THIS MORNING/S FFC RAOB INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR
ONE-HALF OF AN INCH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR
MASS. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP THEN SMALL HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE LOW
INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. THE LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE SPREAD SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG WINDS BECAUSE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WOULD AID DOWNDRAFTS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. USED THE GFS LAMP
FOR THE WIND FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM-TRANSFER TOOL
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THIS EVENING AS MIXING DIMINISHES AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO
THE WEST NEARS THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1016 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IT IS VERY COLD ALOFT. THIS MORNING/S ANALYSIS SHOWED H5
TEMPERATURES NEAR -25. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS IN THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PLUS THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE. THIS MORNING/S
FFC RAOB INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR ONE-HALF OF AN INCH.
THE FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPE. WE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ADDED POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE
TIMING THE HRRR SHOWED THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WHICH IS NEAR
THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP THEN
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE LOW AND THERE WILL BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE SPREAD. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH A
FLAT FLOW PATTERN IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS REACHES THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNRISE. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR. THE
COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEARS BETTER WITH LOWS NEAR 40. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. IT WILL BE WARMER AND THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE AIR MASS
IS DRY. THIS MORNING/S FFC RAOB INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR
ONE-HALF OF AN INCH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD HELP SUPPORT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR
MASS. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP THEN SMALL HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE LOW
INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. THE LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE SPREAD SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG WINDS BECAUSE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WOULD AID DOWNDRAFTS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. USED THE GFS LAMP
FOR THE WIND FORECAST. THE NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM-TRANSFER TOOL
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THIS EVENING AS MIXING DIMINISHES AND THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO
THE WEST NEARS THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
603 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
At 00z Wednesday an upper level ridge axis extended from Utah
into western Saskatchewan and a 500mb trough was located near the
coast of southwest British Columbia. A 100kt 300mb jet extended
from the base of this upper trough east northeastward into
southwest Alberta. Further east a surface and 850mb trough was
located across the central and northern high plains. 850mb
temperatures at 00z Wednesday were +2C at Topeka, +10c at Dodge
City, +11 at North Platte and +16 at Amarillo.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Westerly downslope flow will improve today as an upper level
ridge axis weakens as it move east into the Central Plains Today.
850mb temperature trends across southwest Kansas from 00z
Wednesday to 00z Thursday indicated at 7C to 10C warmup. Based on
this warmup along with 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday ranging
from 18c to 22c at 00z Thursday the previous forecast still looks
on track with temperatures rebounding back into mainly the mid 80s
for Highs today.
00z NAM boundary layer and mixed layer dewpoints for later this
afternoon were similar and averaged around 4-6F lower than the 2m
NAM dewpoints. GFS was higher with dewpoint through out the lower
levels and at this time appears too high based on 06z
verification. As a result trend towards the lower NAM afternoon
dewpoints based on the dry southwest flow expected to develop
during the afternoon. Given this along with afternoon temperatures
in the low to mid 80s it currently appears afternoon relative
humidities will fall back below 15 percent for all of western and
south central Kansas. As afternoon relative humidities fall into
the teens the gusty southwest winds will also decrease as a
surface trough of low pressure moves across western Kansas. Given
where this surface boundary will be located late day along with
the boundary layer and mixed layer winds from the latest RAP and
NAM models at 21z Wednesday it appears the potential for gusty
southwest will lingering until near 00z Thursday south of a line
extending Dodge City to Pratt. Based on these expected winds
during the mid to late afternoon and relative humidity values
below 15% will upgrade the Fire Weather Watch for Meade, Clark,
Comanche, and Kiowa to a Red Flag Warning.
Clear skies will continue tonight and based on the warm layer
forecast in the lower levels from the model soundings the previous
forecast appears to have the right idea with keeping the low
temperatures tonight warmer than what the latest guidance suggest.
Based on the warm layer near the surface from the NAM and GFS will
favor lows tonight in the upper 40s to around 50.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough quickly
moving out of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region
Thursday bringing precip chances to the Upper Midwest. Although
an attendant cold front is projected to push southeastward through
western Kansas early Thursday, a dry frontal passage is expected
with the lower/mid levels lacking significant moisture as indicated
by GFS/ECMWF model soundings. The drier pattern will likely continue
into the early part of the weekend. A drop in temperatures will
occur Thursday in wake of the cold front pushing through western
Kansas early in the day. Cooler air will surge southward into
western Kansas lowering H85 temperatures from around 10C across
central Kansas to near 15C in extreme southwest Kansas. Highs are
expected to struggle reaching the 70s(F) across central Kansas near
the I-70 corridor, if at all. Lower to mid 70s(F) are likely across
southwest Kansas closer to the Oklahoma border. A gradual warming
trend is likely through Saturday as a general south to southeasterly
low level flow prevails across western Kansas through much of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. As for winds, a lee side trough of low pressure will
slowly strengthen across extreme eastern Colorado today. As a
result, south to southwesterly winds of 5 to 10kt early this
morning will increase to around 15 to 25kt through this
afternoon, then subside somewhat this evening as the surface
trough begins to move slowly into western Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 49 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 84 48 71 44 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 84 51 74 45 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 85 49 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 84 49 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 84 50 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ087>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
749 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. ANOTHER FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THAT CAME ONSHORE OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DRIVER FOR INTENSIFYING THE LOW IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MOISTURE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE HAS LED TO SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND EVEN PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOSER TO
UPPER MICHIGAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING EXPERIENCED BUT
THOSE MID CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING INTO THE 20S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA UNDER LIGHT WINDS FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...THOSE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MID
CLOUDS SHIFTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THEY SHIFT TO THE EAST. THESE
MID CLOUDS WILL BE CAUSED BY BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING
UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND PULLING MUCH WARMER
AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BROAD
WAA...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TO STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN (CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
850-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) AND AWAY FROM THE VERY DRY AIR BELOW
7KFT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA TODAY WILL LEAD TO AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY TODAY.
MODELS ARE INDICATING 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AT LEAST 8C BY 00Z
THURSDAY OVER THE WEST. NOT SURE IF MIXING WILL GET THAT HIGH...BUT
FEEL THAT MIXING TO 900MB IS REASONABLE. THINK THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OVERESTIMATE THE COOLING FROM THE EXISTING SNOWPACK AND WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THE WEST. THIS WAS THE CASE
FOR THIS PAST WEEKEND AND EARLIER THIS WORK WEEK AND WITH THE
INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. THEREFORE...HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER THE WEST HALF
AND COOLER VALUES OVER THE EAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING JAMES BAY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWESTERN MICHIGAN AND THEN CONTINUE EAST WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THERE ARE A COUPLE ITEMS OF CONCERN AS IT HEADS INTO THE
CWA. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW STAYS OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL PUSH
FROM THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND IN
WISCONSIN. COULD LEAD TO SOME GAPS IN THE COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
SOME SCATTERING OF THE PRECIP AS THE FORCING SPLITS...BUT FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS TO PUT A 2-3HR PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS IN FOR WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH IT AS IT DEPARTS. AS FOR TIMING...HAVE THE SHOWERS MOVING
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND 06Z...CENTRAL AROUND 08Z...EASTERN AROUND
10Z. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. DID CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEBATED PUSHING
THEM EAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN SINCE THE STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR COVERAGE TO SCATTER OUT
AND HEADING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...OPTED TO LEAVE OUT.
IN ADDITION...03Z SREF CALIBRATED 3HR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ONLY HAD A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF 5 PERCENT PROBS IN THE CWA. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE POTENTIAL SPLITTING...LEFT QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER 0.1 INCH TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
FINALLY...THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND THEN
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEHIND THE
FRONT. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
DURING THE LONG TERM....PATTERN WILL RETURN TO ONE THAT WAS COMMON
DURING THE WINTER. A RIDGE WILL BUILD THRU THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO
NW NAMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL FORCE A RATHER DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP THRU THE CNTRL INTO THE ERN CONUS. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN WHETHER OR NOT THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL YIELD A HVY PCPN
SYSTEM FOR THE GREAT LAKES AS MANY GFS/ECMWF RUNS SUGGESTED OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IN ANY EVENT...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PCPN WITH THE BEST CHC PROBABLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...
WARMTH/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO START THE LONG TERM WILL TRANSITION TO
BLO NORMAL TEMPS (POTENTIALLY WELL BLO NORMAL) EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOW
MODERATION WILL THEN OCCUR THEREAFTER.
BEGINNNING THU...STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEP SFC LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO
IN THE MORNING WILL MOVE TO WRN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY. WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE SE FCST AREA OR JUST TO THE SE AT
12Z...ONLY INCLUDED CHC POPS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THRU
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY UNDER
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. INCOMING AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C OVER THE S AND -3 TO -4C N. WITH A
MILD START TO THE DAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY SNEAK ABOVE 60F OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OF THE SCNTRL. WITH W WINDS...COOLEST CONDITIONS BE OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA (AROUND 40F ALONG WRN SHORELINE). IT WILL BE A
BREEZY/WINDY DAY AS WEAK CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING BUILD MIXED LAYER
AND TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT RESULTING FROM DEEP LOW PRES WELL TO
THE N AND NE. INCORPORATED SOME OF THE NAM GUSTS TO ARRIVE AT WIND
GUSTS INTO THE 30-40MPH RANGE OVER MAINLY THE W HALF. SUSTAINED
WINDS/GUSTS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH WIND ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE
KEWEENAW.
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN AMPLIFICATION...
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE SHIFTING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES FRI...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT -SHRA. WHILE THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY ASSERTIVE WITH PCPN FRI...THE ECMWF
HAS ONLY RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS. WITH SUPPORT ALSO FROM THE
NAM AND UKMET...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LOW CHC OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA FRI. BEST CHC WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE SAT THRU MON TIME FRAME IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FCST
AND PROVIDES THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. FOR MANY DAYS...GFS/ECMWF RUNS
SUGGESTED A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT SOMETIME DURING THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM THAT SCENARIO OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/UKMET...THE
ECMWF HAS NOT WAVERED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ACTION WILL BEGIN WITH
RIDGE AMPLIFICATION THRU THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO NW NAMERICA OVER
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL FORCE TROF AMPLIFICATION S THRU THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW A LARGE MASS OF LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR TO
PUSH S TOWARD THE CNTRL CONUS UNDER THE AMPLIFYING TROF WHILE THE
GULF OF MEXICO OPENS FOR BUSINESS WITH CONSIDERABLE WARMTH/MOISTURE
STREAMING N AHEAD OF THE TROF. ALL THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A
SPRING-TIME HVY PCPN EVENT. WITH A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES INVOLVED...
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE TROF AMPLIFICATION AND TIMING/INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVES WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHAT ULTIMATELY HAPPENS. WAVES
INVOLVED INCLUDE ONE MOVING E INTO SRN CA AND ONE DROPPING SSE THRU
THE PACIFIC NW SAT AND THEN MORE ENERGY DROPPING S TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT. IN THE ECMWF SCENARIO...THE AXIS OF THE AMPLIFYING
MID/UPPER TROF IS FARTHER W OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THERE IS MUCH
MORE SHORTWAVE INTERACTION/PHASING...RESULTING IN A SLOW MOVING
SHARP COLD FRONT WITH THE SRN CA SHORTWAVE GENERATING A SFC WAVE
THAT BRINGS A BAND OF MDT TO HVY SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN NIGHT/MON.
IN THE GFS SCENARIO...THE AMPLIFYING TROF IS FARTHER E...WHICH
RESULTS IN THE NE MOVING SFC WAVE TO BE MUCH FARTHER E...NOT
AFFECTING UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ITS LEADING SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN
STREAM PRODUCES A MORE WELL-DEFINED LOW THAT BRINGS A STREAK MDT
PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT/SAT NIGHT. WHILE IT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...HESITANT TO FAVOR THE ECMWF GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN VERY
COMPLEX INTERACTION OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT IT SHOWS TAKING
PLACE. WITH THE GFS HAVING SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/UKMET...FCST WILL
LEAN MORE IN THAT DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THAT DECISION IS BOOSTED
SOME WITH TODAYS 00Z ECMWF AS IT IS NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW TRENDS
TOWARD THE GFS/GEM/UKMET.
ON SAT...STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
THE AREA. GFS THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW. THE GEM AND
ECMWF ARE WARMER...SUGGESTING ONLY LIQUID. FOR NOW...FCST WILL
REFLECT A MOSTLY RAIN SCENARIO SAT THAT WILL TRANSITION TOWARD
MOSTLY SNOW AS THE PCPN DIMINISHES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. PCPN MAY
IN FACT END SUN...LEAVING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MON AND TUE. THE
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD COME JUST IN TIME TO MOSTLY STOP
SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND SLOW RIVER RISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND GUST IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET 2KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE (TO
50-60KTS) MAY LEAD TO SOME LLWS...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN
FUTURE ISSUANCES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LEAD TO A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (35-45KTS)...BUT THINKING THE ICE
COVER ON THE LAKE WILL HELP CREATE A MARINE LAYER TO KEEP THE
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BUT...HIGH PLATFORMS MAY SEE GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE VALUES. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT ON THURSDAY...SO CONTINUE TO THINK
WINDS WILL BE 20-30KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHER PLATFORMS
HAVING GALE FORCE GUSTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 25KTS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL
NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN). ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN 0.15 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 30S) AND BRING A
STOP TO THE SNOWMELT.
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY (TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY WELL
ABOVE FREEZING) AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE
EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL
THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR
THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE
FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
651 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
NOTE: THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW AS WELL.
DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS TODAY BY 2-4 DEGREES BASED ON
00-06Z MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ADJUSTING FOR THE COOL BIAS OVER THE
PAST WEEK. THE COOL BIAS WITH FORECAST HIGHS WERE APPARENT IN BOTH
THE MPX FORECAST AND IN MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS ON THE
HIGH END OF THE MODEL SOLUTION ENVELOPE...WHICH IS A GOOD PLACE TO
BE ON DAYS LIKE TODAY. WE ALMOST NEVER GO WARM ENOUGH...AND MODEL
OUTPUT TENDS TO RUN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL/MOIST WITH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. WE USED A BLENDED MODEL FORECAST AND THEN
ADJUSTED UP 5 DEGREES BASED ON THE 925-850MB THERMAL PROFILE AND
STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS A BATCH
OF 10KFT CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS MORNING...BUT WE THINK THIS WILL
CLEAR BY THE LATE MORNING AND LEAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE DOESN`T ARRIVE IN FAR EASTERN MN
AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL 18-00Z...SO BE PATIENT WITH THE WARMING
TODAY IN THESE AREAS. WE MIGHT END UP WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
4-4:30PM...RATHER THAN 2-3PM. BEHIND THE WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL COME A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE COULDN`T REALLY JUSTIFY RAISING POPS
TOO MUCH FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOR TONIGHT. WE DID
INCLUDE LIKELY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BASICALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE POST-FRONTAL SATURATION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
SOUTH OF HERE WE HAVE SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS AND A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS LIGHT QPF...BUT PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND AND
THERE MIGHT BE A LOT OF VIRGA. MOST AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE TRACE-0.04" RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FIRST OFF...IT`S NICE TO SEE THE 09.00Z ECMWF MOSTLY REMOVED THE
TWO SNOW EVENTS IT HAD LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS STARTING TO GARNER SOME
ATTENTION. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED MODEL OUTPUT IS STILL NOT
OPTIMISTIC IN MAINTAINING ANY SORT OF WARMTH AS WE TRANSITION FROM
SPLIT FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO A PRONOUNCED CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT COLD DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL /POTENTIALLY AS COLD AS 20-25 BELOW NORMAL/ FOR A COUPLE
DAYS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF YOU BUY THE SLOWER...DEEPER ECMWF.
THOSE 850 MB TEMPS EARLY TO MID WEEK ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF
FEBRUARY. THE GFS ISN`T QUITE AS BAD MON-WED...BUT THERE ARE SOME
GLARING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
THERE ARE A COUPLE DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. THERE
IS A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT THE FORCING ISN`T
OVERLY STRONG. WE COULD STILL SHAKE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES ON SATURDAY WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS AND RESPECTABLE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSING UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD
ALSO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 20-40DM HEIGHT FALLS
DURING THE DAY. SO...THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE FORCING WILL ALSO BE OVER A LARGE AREA...SO IF
THE SIGNAL CONTINUES...WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MOVE TOWARD LIKELY
POPS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THINKING FROM 6Z TAF. DEEP MIXING TODAY STILL
LOOKS TO PROMOTE GUSTY SW WINDS...WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW 30-35 KT
GUSTS AT MN TERMINALS. WILL HAVE A BATCH OF 10K FT CIGS QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING. MODEL TIMING ON
THE FRONT IS SIMILAR...COMING THROUGH AXN AROUND 3Z...MSP 6Z AND
EAU 9Z. STILL SEEING A SHRA SIGNAL...MOSTLY POST FRONT. BROUGHT
SHRA INTO ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH RES MODELS SHOW A BATCH OF SHOWERS
COMING OUT OF NRN SODAK EAST ACROSS TERMINALS. TIMING IN TAFS IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS/NAM AND SLOWER HI-RES ARW/NMM.
WHATEVER IS SEEN PRECIP WISE...ANY SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED GIVEN HIGH BASED NATURE OF ACTIVITY.
KMSP...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON SHRA...4 HOUR WINDOW IS TOO
LONG...BUT DOES CAPTURE THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR SHRA AT THE
FIELD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN REMAINING ASPECTS OF TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG
WARNING ACROSS MOST OF THE WIND FAVORED AREAS. THE WEATHER ELEMENT
WITH THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IS STILL THE HUMIDITY. TOOK A
FAIR AMOUNT OF WORK IN THE GRIDS TO GET HUMIDITIES DOWN INTO THE
20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THESE TYPES OF WEATHER
PATTERNS...FORECAST MODELS RUN A COOL/MOIST BIAS...THE BIG QUESTION
FOR TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WE OVER CORRECTED FOR SAID COOL/MOIST
BIAS. FOR THE CURRENT HUMIDITY FORECAST TO WORK OUT...WE WILL NEED
TO SEE MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD TO ABOVE 800 MB AS THE RAP AND NAM
INDICATE AND ALSO HOPE WE DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH POOLING OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NODAK/NW MN BY THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30-35
MPH WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT...IT WAS
DECIDED BY ALL OFFICES TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND GO WITH THE
EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN RED FLAG
CRITERIA BEING MET IN SW MN /WHERE INITIAL WARNING WAS ISSUED/ AND
DOES GRADUALLY DECREASE SOME AS YOU HEAD EAST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ047-048-054>058-064>067-073>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
FIRE WEATHER...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHER PLAINS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SKIES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
AT 08Z WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 40 TO 45 MOST LOCATIONS. THE UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...NOT TOO FAR FROM NORTHERN MONTANA ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FOR TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BREAK
DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS ACROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS INTO
NORTHERN WYOMING. AS THIS OCCURS...A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS TOP OUT AROUND 20C...AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...AND
WITH THIS SETUP GUIDANCE TO LIKELY UNDER FCST HIGHS. ALSO WILL SEE A
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WIND 15 TO 30 MPH AND CONTINUED FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 80.
FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA
BY 07Z THURSDAY. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 10 MPH BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PCPN TO DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AS
IT IS PUSHING INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS. HOWEVER...PCPN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE LI`S WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WHERE MARGINAL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NCTRL
WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL 06Z THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS
THERE AFTER. FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE I80 CORRIDOR AFTER 02Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
12Z THURSDAY AND BEYOND. LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
USHER A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...SOLID SURFACE HEATING WILL WORK WITH STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 AS THE WAVE APPROACHES.
THEREAFTER THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
WAVE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REMAINS
SEASONAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER A LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA PROFILE. HIGHS WILL
RETURN BACK INTO THE 70 FOR ALL LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AS THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND CURED
FUELS. ATTM MINIMUM RH LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON /~20 PERCENT/...WITH THE LOWEST
READINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FIRE ZONES /204 & 210/. WIND SPEEDS
ARE IN QUESTION TOO...WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL OF
LESS THAN 20 MPH. ATTM NO ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED.
FOR SATURDAY...MILD CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WILL USHER A STRONG CANADIAN COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ATOP WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH STRONG CAA FILLING SOUTH...BUT THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ARRIVAL SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE FRONT ARRIVES
LACKING ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE FOR QPF...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS COME BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY. STRONG CAA
TO FILTER SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHILE A SECONDARY PIECE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE KEYING IN ON A DEFINED FRONTOGENETIC BAND
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EXTENDED NORTHEAST
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. H85 T/S ARE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW...BUT 2M T/S ARE INDICATED TO REMAIN ABOVE 0C
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WILL RETAIN RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX AS
THE PRIMARY PTYPES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT IF SNOW WERE TO
FALL...IT MAY STRUGGLE TO COLLECT ON ANYTHING BESIDE GRASSY
SURFACES. BEYOND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY QUICK TO FORCE THE
COLD AIR EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE WARM UP WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS AN ADDITIONAL WAVE SHOULD FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME MIDWEEK...WITH LIGHT QPF POSSIBLE. ECMWF GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER WEAK ARCTIC HIGH...THE GFS EVENTUALLY DROPS A CANADIAN
HIGH SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT IS 24-36 SLOWER THAN THE EC
CAMP. SO BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...FORECAST CONSISTENCY IS LOW...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THEN A FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING SOME
MIDDLE CLOUDS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WIND 250-270 WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY TO 14-18G24-28KT BY 18Z. WIND WILL THEN DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO 310-340 AT
14-18G22-24KT. ALSO...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER 02Z...BUT THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE HIGH
AND THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING AT ANY ONE SITE IS
VERY LOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
HIGHS AROUND 80 TODAY...WILL COMBINE WITH DRY AIR TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE 25 TO 30 AND
SEE LITTLE REASON FOR DEW POINTS TO BE HIGHER TODAY. FOLLOWED LAST COUPLE
OF EVENTS AND DROPPED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING MODEL GUIDANCE.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 07Z RAP MODEL FORECASTING DEW POINTS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS FROM THEDFORD SOUTHWEST THROUGH IMPERIAL WITH LOWER 20S
ELSEWHERE...NOT READY TO GO THAT LOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW POINT
TRENDS CLOSELY TODAY. RESULTING RH VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MORNING AND INCREASE
FURTHER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL AT TIMES IN SOME
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO
25 TO 30 MPH BY 21Z. THUS RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS ON TRACK TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
643 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN NORTH
OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY OFFSHORE DURING
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL UPDATE EARLY TO RAISE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA AND ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. PER LATEST RUNS
OF THE 3KM HRRR...4 KM WRF AND RAP MODELS...BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH
AXIS OF 500 MB TROUGH SWINGING EAST...IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND GRADUAL DRYING OF THE COLUMN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THINK ANY PRECIP CHANCES BEYOND 15Z WILL
BE MINIMAL. WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...EXCEPT LOWER
60S OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SCOUR
OUT TONIGHT AS AXIS OF MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS AWAY FROM THE WATER WILL RANGE FROM 43 TO 48
DEGREES WITH LOWER 50S OUTER BANKS AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THEM IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT THE ECMWF LINES UP BEST
WITH HPC SURFACE SOLUTION. RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH WEATHER GETTING ACTIVE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH A RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY THEN SHIFTING EAST IN ADVANCE OF RATHER DEEP UPPER
TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE
COAST AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SO NO RAIN IS FORECAST. FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE BACK NORTH AS SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN TUESDAY INCREASING TO
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE
VFR CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. DRIER DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...GOOD FLYING WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOW ENOUGH OF A TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WHERE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUB-VFR CIG/VSBY POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT AREA TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL BE DROPPING THE SCA SOUTH OF
OCRACOKE ON THIS UPDATE AS SEAS ARE AT 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GUSTY WINDS/ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE
WITH POST-FRONTAL SURGE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. DIAMOND BUOY IS
GUSTING TO 29 KNOTS AND HATTERAS COAST GUARD STATION IS GUSTING TO
27 KNOTS AS OF 10Z. DID RAISE PAMLICO SOUND TO A SOLID 20 KNOTS AS
SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 20S ARE BEING OBSERVED THERE AS WELL. AS
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD...WINDS SHOULD DROP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY
THURSDAY MORNING MOST AREAS BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN BE THE RULE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15-20
KNOTS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OR
ALBEMARLE SOUND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS A RESULT WITH
WINDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTH SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15
KNOTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
734 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND
CROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD...STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND HAS MOVED
THROUGH MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THERE WERE A FEW
SPRINKLES...MAYBE A FLURRY ACROSS NW PA...AS THE FRONT PASSED.
BELIEVE THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS DONE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY WHICH WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. FLOW
OFF OF THE LAKE WILL MAKE IT THE COOLEST NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MIXING SOUTH OF THE FRONT TO A LEAST SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST MOTION. SO
WE HAVE DELAYED THE RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL THURSDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE THE LOW IS SO FAR NORTH IN
ONTARIO THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG PUSH TO THE FRONT WITH IT ONLY
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN OHIO AS A RIPPLE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. THIS WILL OCCUR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA TO KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY
SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW 70S A POSSIBILITY IF
THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT THICKEN TOO MUCH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
COOLER FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE OF SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE BUT NOT CLEAR CUT FORECAST WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME LEANING TOWARD THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS IN MOVING
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EITHER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY KEPT IT AS CHANCE POPS. DID ADD THUNDER TO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY SOME PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. ALSO SOME
CONCERN ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IF THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE CORRECT AS THEY BRING IN SOME COLD AIR.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL START BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WAS APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER. SOME CLOUDINESS WAS
BEHIND IT. THE MODELS WERE HINTING AT SOME MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AT SITES INLAND OF LAKE ERIE AFTER DAYBREAK. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS WERE BACKING DOWN ON THIS INCLUDING THE HRRR MODEL. THE
ONLY TAF SITE THAT MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR BROKEN MVFR
CEILINGS IS YNG. OTHERWISE AS THE DAY GOES ON THE CLOUDS WILL MIX
OUT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AND
DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WERE A LITTLE
GUSTY NEAR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER...FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LAKE LATE ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BUT WITH LAKE SO COLD...NOT EXPECTING THE REAL STRONG WINDS TO REACH
THE SURFACE. SOME CONCERN THAT WINDS COULD GET A LITTLE GUSTY WITH
THE FROPA AND THAT MAY WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A SHORT
TIME UNTIL A RIDGE BUILDS IN. WINDS COULD BE NEAR GALE FORCE...BUT
MAINLY JUST TO 30 KNOTS.
ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND THAT
COULD PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THAT THREAT WILL LAST INTO MONDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTION ON THE FRONTAL TIMING. NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS
AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AND BRING IN DRY AND
WARMING HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS EXTEND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
ATTM FROM THE ASHEVILLE AREA NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA...IN AREA OF
WEAK Q-VEC CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF RIPPLE EMBEDDED IN THE BACK SIDE OF
UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING OVER OUR AREA HOWEVER.
CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE TO SOME DEGREE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF
RESPONSE SEEN ON EARLIER RUNS AS THIS RIPPLE MOVES EAST THRU THE FA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BRINGING SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ACRS. RAP PROG
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL AMT OF SFC BASED CAPE OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE FA DEVELOPING LATER THIS MRNG AND LASTING UNTIL THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER TODAY...AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN
ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE LIMITED ACTIVITY SO FAR AND THE RELATIVELY
BRIEF WINDOW FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...KEPT POPS IN SCHC RANGE.
THUNDER MENTION HOWEVER WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY AND NOW BETTER
REFLECTS THE AREA OF BEST OVERLAPPING FORCING AND INSTBY. TEMPS AND
DEWPTS WERE REVISED THIS MRNG BUT OVERALL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 300 AM EDT...NW WINDS WILL
BECOME RATHER GUSTY AT MIDDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST BETWEEN A DEPARTING SURFACE FRONT OVER THE GULF STREAM...AND
HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING ACROSS THE GULF STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURE
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX...AND
WIN GUSTS WILL ABATE. DEW POINT DEPRESSION WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR
FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST STILL LOOKS RATHER
PLEASANT. SRN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY THU AND
TRANSITION OFF THE ATL COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW CONSISTING MAINLY OF POCKETS OF DNVA...THE COLUMN WILL
REMAIN DRY OUTSIDE OF SOME DEEPER CI ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST FRI.
ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WILL ENABLE FAIRLY DEEP MIXING BOTH
AFTERNOONS THU/FRI AND RH PERCENTAGES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCALES THU. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN TOO
LOW FOR A FIRE WX CONCERN OUTSIDE OF THE GA COUNTIES WHERE FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS COULD BE LOW ENOUGH FOR AN SPS MENTION BY THAT TIME.
A NRN STREAM S/W WILL CROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY FRI NIGHT WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DPVA CROSSING THE NC MTNS AFT 03Z SAT. HOWEVER...THE
GOM WILL BE UNABLE TO PROVIDE MUCH MOISTURE ADV TO THIS FEATURE AS
AN ATL RIDGE AXIS IS HELD IN PLACE BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...THE
GOING SLIGHT -SHRA POPS ARE STILL ADVERTISED FOR THE WRN NC MTNS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 250 AM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW AMP RIDGING WILL CROSS THE
SE/RN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE ATL RIDGING REMAINS STRONGLY
ENTRENCHED AT THE SFC. S/LY FLOW IN THE LLVLS WILL PERSIST SAT/SUN
AND ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.
SFC TD/S WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A COUPLE PLEASANT DAYS. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SUN
AFTERNOON HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK WAA IN MOIST H92/H85 FLOW WITH A LOW
END QPF RESPONSE ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD ALSO
BE ENOUGH DOWNWARD OMEGA AND MLVL DRY AIR TO COUNTER ISENT -SHRA
DEVELOPMENT AND THE FCST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME
PERIOD.
MECH LIFT WILL BECOME MORE SATURATED AND DEEPER ACROSS THE SW/RN
ZONES SUN NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST AND MID
TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA STILL LOOKS
GOOD BY 18Z MON. THE MODELS ARE GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH THE TIMING
AND CHARACTER OF THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER THE OPEN GOM SCENARIO
STILL LOOKS PROBABLE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND NOW LLVL OR BULK SHEAR VALUES DON/T LOOK THAT
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND THINGS
COULD CHANGE. KEPT THE BEST CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE SRN ZONES MON
AND MON NIGHT...WITH SOME LOW END POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER TUE WITH
THE PASSING OF THE COLD TROF ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PERIODS OF LOW VFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH PASSING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CONVECTION.
SHRA AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE JUST AFTER MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION TS
IN THE TAF. NW WINDS WITH OCNL GUSTS TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DO NOT SUPPORT FOG.
ELSEWHERE...VFR. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH LOW VFR IN THE FOOTHILLS...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACCOMPANIES AN UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS IS MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTN OVER THE PIEDMONT. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DO NOT SUPPORT FOG. NW
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY BUT LITTLE PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED. VFR SUNDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JAT/WIMBERLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
908 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY OFF
THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLS NEAR
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. INCREASED
POPS FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND RAISED UP HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE RICHEST
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON.
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN THE
PIEDMONT AND WAS MOVING EAST. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 8AM. THE SECOND CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS WAS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE
LARGE LAPSE RATES. WITH SMALL CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL
ENERGY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. THE 06Z RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTED THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME AND LOCATION WOULD BE FROM 2-6PM EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ENOUGH CLOUDS TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HAVE STAYED
CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
WILL EXTENDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD...EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE IN THE SHELTERED AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ONCE THE SUN SETS. AGAIN BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GOOD WAA ON SW FLOW THURSDAY PUSHES H85 TEMPS FROM ABOUT 3C IN THE
MORNING TO NEARLY 10C IN THE WEST BY LATER THURSDAY. WITH CLOUDS
HOLDING OFF...MANY LOCALES SHOULD REACH 70F. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SINK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. BUT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW DOWNSLOPING WIND...MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...AND NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
EVEN ACROSS SE WEST VA. FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS SNEAK
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS...BUT
ONLY WORTHY OF A SLT CHC POP AT THIS TIME. MOST SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER SE WEST VA...SPECIFICALLY
GREENBRIER COUNTY. DESPITE CLOUDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX T
WILL REMAIN WARM WITH H85 TEMPS CLOSE TO 10C EACH DAY. AS THE FRONT
LOSES DEFINITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WITH SOME CLEARING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE WPC GUIDANCE/12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR
THE EXTENDED. MAIN SYSTEM SHOULD WORK TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH FULL SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS.
COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ON
MONDAY. FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OVER US TUESDAY WITH SFC LOW MOVING
ALONG IT TO KEEP THREAT OF RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...COOLING OFF MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE
SOUTHWEST TIP OF VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH AND UPPER TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE COMBINATION OF COLDER AIR ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFTER
16Z/NOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS AREA LIKELY BETWEEN 14Z/10AM AND 22Z/6PM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ANY SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ARRIVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 905 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON HAS CRESTED AND WILL FALL BACK BELOW
FLOOD STAGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
740 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY OFF
THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLS NEAR
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN THE
PIEDMONT AND WAS MOVING EAST. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 8AM. THE SECOND CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS WAS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE
LARGE LAPSE RATES. WITH SMALL CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL
ENERGY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. THE 06Z RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTED THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME AND LOCATION WOULD BE FROM 2-6PM EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ENOUGH CLOUDS TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HAVE STAYED
CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
WILL EXTENDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD...EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE IN THE SHELTERED AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ONCE THE SUN SETS. AGAIN BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GOOD WAA ON SW FLOW THURSDAY PUSHES H85 TEMPS FROM ABOUT 3C IN THE
MORNING TO NEARLY 10C IN THE WEST BY LATER THURSDAY. WITH CLOUDS
HOLDING OFF...MANY LOCALES SHOULD REACH 70F. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SINK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. BUT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW DOWNSLOPING WIND...MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...AND NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
EVEN ACROSS SE WEST VA. FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS SNEAK
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS...BUT
ONLY WORTHY OF A SLT CHC POP AT THIS TIME. MOST SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER SE WEST VA...SPECIFICALLY
GREENBRIER COUNTY. DESPITE CLOUDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX T
WILL REMAIN WARM WITH H85 TEMPS CLOSE TO 10C EACH DAY. AS THE FRONT
LOSES DEFINITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WITH SOME CLEARING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE WPC GUIDANCE/12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR
THE EXTENDED. MAIN SYSTEM SHOULD WORK TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH FULL SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS.
COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ON
MONDAY. FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OVER US TUESDAY WITH SFC LOW MOVING
ALONG IT TO KEEP THREAT OF RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...COOLING OFF MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE
SOUTHWEST TIP OF VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH AND UPPER TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE COMBINATION OF COLDER AIR ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AFTER
16Z/NOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS AREA LIKELY BETWEEN 14Z/10AM AND 22Z/6PM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ANY SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ARRIVES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 425 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON HAS CRESTED AND WILL FALL BACK BELOW
FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
550 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
AT 3 AM...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A 925 AND 850 MB
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY 6C THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER 4C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 10K
FEET THIS MORNING...AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING LOOKS TO BE TOO COOL WITH ITS SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND THIS AFFECTS HOW DEEP IT WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON.
IT KEEPS THE 850 TO 800 MB CAP IN PLACE. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND
RAP HAS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THUS IT IS ABLE TO MIX
DOWN THE DRIER AIR FROM THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER ABOVE THE
CAP...THUS IT LOWERS DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.
CONSIDERING THAT THE MOS AND THE SUPER BLEND HAS BEEN RUNNING A
BIT COOL OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS...OPTED TO GO WITH THE WARMER NAM
AND RAP FOR TODAY. WITH THIS SAID...DO THINK THAT THEY MAY BE
MIXED TOO MUCH...SO WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AND ONLY MIXED UP INTO
THE 800 TO 775 MB RANGE. THIS RESULTED IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 70
TO 75 DEGREES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND 63 TO 70 ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /AROUND 25 PERCENT/...STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS...AND DRY FINE FUELS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR...THERE WILL BE A DANGER FOR WILD FIRES ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE WHO PLAN ON DOING
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD MOVE THEIR PLANS TO ANOTHER DAY. IN
ADDITION...ALL CIGARETTE BUTTS SHOULD BE DISCARDED INTO PROPER
PROPER CONTAINERS.
FOR TONIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF IT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS MODERATE 290 TO 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND IT LOWERS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO
LESS THAN 10 MB. DUE TO THIS...WENT MORE WITH THE GFS...GEM...AND
ECMWF THAN THE DRY NAM. WITH THIS SAID...CONCERNED THAT THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO WITH ML CAPES UP TO 250 J/KG INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 09.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO THE BE THE FASTEST WITH MOVING THIS FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO
1.25 INCH RANGE...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. THE
HIGHEST TOTAL LOOK TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS A WAVE MOVES
ALONG THIS FRONT.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE
TOWARD THE GFS WITH ITS LATEST RUN. AS A RESULT...ITS SNOW TOTALS
ARE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT IT SHOWED DURING ITS PREVIOUS 3 RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
WINDY DAY AS A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING IN THE
NEAR SFC LAYER BRINGS STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. EXPECT 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY IN
A 09-10Z TIME FRAME AT KRST/KLSE. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THERE COULD BE A LLWS CONCERN FOR A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ABOUT 22050KTS AT 2 KFT. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH LESS.
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT...BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOWERING A BIT
POST THE BOUNDARY...BUT LOOK TO STAY VFR AT THIS TIME. BETTER
FORCING IS POST FRONT...AND THERE SHOULD BE -SHRA SCATTERED ABOUT.
WILL ADD TO FORECAST...BUT LEAVE OUT ANY POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTION FOR
NOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS /SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH/...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /AROUND 25 PERCENT/...AND DRY FINE
FUELS...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR WILD FIRES TODAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS ALSO DISCOURAGED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 DUE TO THE HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THOSE WHO PLAN ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD MOVE THEIR
PLANS TO ANOTHER DAY. IN ADDITION...ALL CIGARETTE BUTTS SHOULD BE
DISCARDED INTO PROPER CONTAINERS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
258 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...THE WAVE CLOUD DID INDEED SHIFT EASTWARD ALTHOUGH
INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY MOVED IN...BUT UNDER INCREASED
SUN TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO THE 70S. SOME CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AND THERE COULD BE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND GENERALLY WENT
WITH THE 18Z RAP MODEL FOR THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT ON THE
PLAINS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDINESS AND/OR FOG BEHIND THIS
BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.
THE FLOW QUICKLY COMES AROUND TO SOUTHEAST ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW
WITH PERHAPS A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE FORMING ALTHOUGH WINDS BY LATE
IN THE DAY MAY WELL GO BACK TO WESTERLY AGAIN. COOLER BY ABOUT 6
TO 10 DEGREES TOMORROW ON THE PLAINS BUT ABOUT THE SAME IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT IS SHALLOW. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD
HELP FORCE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LASTING INTO
THE EVENING. KEPT THE CHANCE OF THESE TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
RANGE AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
COMBINED WITH SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS COULD
PRODUCE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE
WAVE FRIDAY WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL AGAIN CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 70S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD. A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH WYOMING SATURDAY AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUNDAY. MODELS SHOWING HALF TO ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. PLENTY OF COLD AIR WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO EXPECT A QUICK CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE LAST FEW RUNS
OF THE GFS HAVE FINALLY COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. SO
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN USUAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASED
POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE SUNDAY.
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL. THIS WILL BRING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE NOT ANY WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS...SO EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE SPORADIC THEN THOUGHT THIS
AFTERNOON ALHTOUGH GENERALLY WESTERLY. SHOULD GO TO LIGHT FLOW
WITH DRAINAGE TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND SHIFTS THE
WINDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THEN THE WINDS TO COME AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE MORNING...MAYBE FORMING A WEAK
DENVER CYLONE THAT COULD MESS UP SOME OF THE TAF WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SZOKE
LONG TERM....MEIER
AVIATION...SZOKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1011 AM MDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...WAVE CLOUD HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND EXPANDED THIS
MORNING SO HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY TO BRING IN MORE
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS SLOW THE RISE IN TEMPERATURE. BASED ON THE
GOESR SYNTHETIC IMAGERY FROM THE NSSL WRF AND NAM NEST THE MAIN
WAVE CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AS OFTEN HAPPENS WENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. ALSO DECREASED
CLOUDINESS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS IT IS QUITE SUNNY UP
THERE RIGHT NOW WITH MAIN ACTION THE WAVE CLOUD. CLOUDINESS IN THE
GRIDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE BASED ON LATEST SYNTHETIC IMAGERY AND HRRR FORECASTS SO
CUT BACK ON THIS AS WELL. BELIEVE TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL
EVENTUALLY WARM UP TO CLOSE TO THE LEVELS THAT WERE IN THE GRIDS
AS WE GET MORE SUN THIS AFTERNOON SO MAINLY DELAYED SOME OF THAT
WARMING.
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS IDEA OF TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE PLAINS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...MOVING INTO DIA
AREA AROUND 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM MDT WED APR 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVE/CHINOOK WINDS IN
THE NORMAL SPOTS THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT
TIMES. HRRR SIMULATIONS DOING A DECENT JOB KEEPING THE WINDS IN
AND VERY CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH 15 MINUTE OUTPUT EVEN
DEPICTING THE OCCASIONAL FLOW REVERSAL BEING OBSERVED AT A FEW
SPOTS. THE MOUNTAIN WAVE SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS HEATING PROGRESSES
TODAY WITH MORE GENERAL AND WIDESPREAD WESTERLIES ACROSS PRETTY
MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED AGAINST HOISTING A
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE
MARGINAL WITH AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ROUGHLY A KGXY TO KAKO LINE
BEING THE MOST FAVORED. REGARDING CLOUDS AND WEATHER CIRA
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DOING A NICE JOB WITH THE LEE WAVE
CLOUD THIS MORNING...HOLDING ONTO IT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
SOME WEAK QG LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT LEAST THIS
EVENING IF NOT A BIT LONGER. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONSIDERING THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE THAT IS EXPECTED BUT A STRAY HIGH-BASED SHOWER IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. PRESENT TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND 06-07Z AT THE NORTHERN BORDER...DENVER AROUND 09Z
AND SOUTHERN CWA BY END OF PERIOD APPEARS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME THREAT OF POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER
CLOUDINESS.
LONG TERM...WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THU AS A WK FNT
AFFECTS NERN CO. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LVL MOISTURE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS. OVER NERN CO THERE
IS SOME LIMITED CAPE FM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING SO WILL KEEP IN
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AS A WK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW TRACKS ACROSS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL COOL
READINGS BACK INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO.
ON FRI THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY
LIMITED SO WILL KEEP A DRY FCST IN PLACE. AFTN HIGHS WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS NERN CO. BY SAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE SE FM THE NWRN US WHICH WILL LEAVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
OVER NRN CO. SOME MID LVL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY AFTN AND
COMBINED WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. AFTN
HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER NERN CO.
FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A SHARPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA. IN
ADDITION A STG CDFNT WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO SAT NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW THRU THE DAY ON SUN. MEANWHILE SHOULD SEE A GOOD SHOT
MID LVL QG ASCENT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WELL. LATEST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PCPN COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BY 12Z SUN.
OVERALL THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND MTN AREAS. ALONG THE FRONT RANGE COULD SEE SOME DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER WRM GROUND TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW
CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO ROADS.
BY MON THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA WITH A RETURN OF DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE.
AVIATION...LITTLE OF CONCERN REGARDING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LOWER
CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITIES AFTER AROUND 09Z OR SO WHICH
COULD LAST INTO MID MORNING THURSDAY. WINDS AS USUAL ARE
INTERESTING. DECENT MOUNTAIN WAVE/CHINOOK/ROTOR EVENT IMPACTING
KBJC WITH KAPA AND KDEN EXPERIENCING RELATIVELY NORMAL DRAINAGE
FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MORE GENERAL BRISK WESTERLY FLOW AT ALL
TERMINALS BY MIDDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE AGAIN GOING TO DRAINAGE AFTER DARK. EXPECT A
SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST AROUND 09Z BEHIND COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SZOKE
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...SZOKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
143 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO
15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST AROUND
12 KNOTS AROUND 14-15Z ON FRIDAY.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MAIN STORY
THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEREFORE A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THOUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE BAHAMAS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST AND TRANSITIONING TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE WINDS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT WINDS IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY ARE LIKELY IN THE 22 TO 27 KNOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. THE MARINE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS BUT ALSO NEED TO POINT OUT THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND THESE STRONG WINDS OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE THREAT OF GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE
LIKELY TO BE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TODAY-FRIDAY)
BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY
AND BREEZY NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE MID 50S NEAR THE LAKE REGION AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THIS TIME TODAY...WHICH CAN`T BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN
THE 60S THIS MORNING AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER
70S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH WILL BE 10-15 DEG COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NWRN INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO NORMAL THROUGH THIS SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY NEXT WEEK)
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AND
APPROACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 60 77 68 79 / 0 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 65 78 70 80 / 0 10 10 10
MIAMI 63 78 69 80 / 0 10 10 10
NAPLES 60 81 62 83 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
200 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE REACHING
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON PER SAT IMAGERY. BUILD UPS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS PER SAT IMAGERY AS WELL. SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE HELPING TO MAINTAIN GRADIENT AND WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS
SNAKE PLAIN. REACHING LOW END OF WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD IN UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN BUT COVERED BY BLOWING DUST ADVISORY ALREADY. DUST
VISIBLE ON WEB CAMS NORTH OF IDAHO FALLS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
INSTABILITY STILL MIGRATES TO EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 03Z AS SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE SHIFT EAST AND GRADIENT SUBSIDES. LATEST HRRR RUNS
CONTINUING TO SHOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER
THIS EVENING. NAM CARRYING SOME INSTABILITY THERE AND WILL BE IN
LINE WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TAIL SO ADDED WEAK POPS IN THAT
AREA AS WELL. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL
BUT REGION HAS BEEN HOVERING AT THE 30MPH THRESHOLD WITH GUIDANCE
AT THESE LEVELS AND UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. CAN SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE BLOWING DUST BUT WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS UPDATE AS
NECESSARY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND DRAGS
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. INSTABILITY NOT AS FAVORABLE AS
TODAY BUT LEFT WEAK COLLABORATION POPS ALONG NORTHERN BORDERS. DMH
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS INCREASED MOISTURE MATCHING UP
BETTER WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW BRIEF RIDGING MONDAY WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS
BEFORE BRINGING THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY
FLOW WHERE THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEFORE
DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN BECOME ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WYATT
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY IS
BRINGING BREEZY TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT BLOWING
DUST ACROSS THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BUT
STILL REMAIN MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR BYI...PIH AND IDA. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DROP OFF BY EARLY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR VICINITY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING FOR IDA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FOR SUN. WYATT
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ017-021.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ020.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1236 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Westerly downslope flow will improve today as an upper level
ridge axis weakens as it move east into the Central Plains Today.
850mb temperature trends across southwest Kansas from 00z
Wednesday to 00z Thursday indicated at 7C to 10C warmup. Based on
this warmup along with 850mb temperatures at 00z Thursday ranging
from 18c to 22c at 00z Thursday the previous forecast still looks
on track with temperatures rebounding back into mainly the mid 80s
for Highs today.
00z NAM boundary layer and mixed layer dewpoints for later this
afternoon were similar and averaged around 4-6F lower than the 2m
NAM dewpoints. GFS was higher with dewpoint through out the lower
levels and at this time appears too high based on 06z
verification. As a result trend towards the lower NAM afternoon
dewpoints based on the dry southwest flow expected to develop
during the afternoon. Given this along with afternoon temperatures
in the low to mid 80s it currently appears afternoon relative
humidities will fall back below 15 percent for all of western and
south central Kansas. As afternoon relative humidities fall into
the teens the gusty southwest winds will also decrease as a
surface trough of low pressure moves across western Kansas. Given
where this surface boundary will be located late day along with
the boundary layer and mixed layer winds from the latest RAP and
NAM models at 21z Wednesday it appears the potential for gusty
southwest will lingering until near 00z Thursday south of a line
extending Dodge City to Pratt. Based on these expected winds
during the mid to late afternoon and relative humidity values
below 15% will upgrade the Fire Weather Watch for Meade, Clark,
Comanche, and Kiowa to a Red Flag Warning.
Clear skies will continue tonight and based on the warm layer
forecast in the lower levels from the model soundings the previous
forecast appears to have the right idea with keeping the low
temperatures tonight warmer than what the latest guidance suggest.
Based on the warm layer near the surface from the NAM and GFS will
favor lows tonight in the upper 40s to around 50.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough quickly
moving out of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region
Thursday bringing precip chances to the Upper Midwest. Although
an attendant cold front is projected to push southeastward through
western Kansas early Thursday, a dry frontal passage is expected
with the lower/mid levels lacking significant moisture as indicated
by GFS/ECMWF model soundings. The drier pattern will likely continue
into the early part of the weekend. A drop in temperatures will
occur Thursday in wake of the cold front pushing through western
Kansas early in the day. Cooler air will surge southward into
western Kansas lowering H85 temperatures from around 10C across
central Kansas to near 15C in extreme southwest Kansas. Highs are
expected to struggle reaching the 70s(F) across central Kansas near
the I-70 corridor, if at all. Lower to mid 70s(F) are likely across
southwest Kansas closer to the Oklahoma border. A gradual warming
trend is likely through Saturday as a general south to southeasterly
low level flow prevails across western Kansas through much of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR conditions will continue into Thursday. Light downslope winds
become northwesterly and then northeasterly late tonight into
Thursday morning with a cold front. Winds increase with the front
to 15-25kt.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 84 47 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 84 46 72 44 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 84 48 74 45 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 85 47 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 84 49 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 84 49 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ087>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
427 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
LATEST 19Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TIED WITH MAIN SFC LOW MOVING
EAST INTO MANITOBA WHILE THERE WAS A SECOND SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NW
NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER MOVING RAPIDLY EAST IN ZONAL FLOW. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROPELLING SYSTEMS COLD FRONT EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS. WAA MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE 8H WARM FRONT
HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE LIMITING MIXING AND KEPT TEMPS ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FCST SO HAVE HAD TO ADJUST TEMPS
DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING RETURNS ALONG THIS BAND
OF MID CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN REPORTED HITTING THE GROUND AS CLOUD
CEILINGS GENERALLY ABV 6KFT AND VERY DRY AIR IN LOW-LVLS OF
ATMOSPHERE AS DWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING JAMES BAY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING OVER WRN UPR MI AND EAST WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CWA AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW STAYS
WELL NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT STAY MORE TO
THE SOUTH OVER WISCONSIN. CONCERN IS WE COULD HAVE BROKEN COVERAGE
OF THE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA...BUT FELT CONFIDENT TO
HANG ONTO A 2-3HR PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS IN FCST AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THUNDER OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS DUE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE TO 7C ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CAPE IS
PRETTY MINIMAL (100 J/KG OR LESS). THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND THEN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
OR LOWER 40S TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
THU...STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEP SFC LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO IN THE
MORNING WILL MOVE TO WRN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY. WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER THE SE FCST AREA OR JUST TO THE SE AT 12Z...ONLY INCLUDED
CHC POPS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THRU MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY UNDER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING.
INCOMING AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND 0C OVER THE S AND -3 TO -4C N. WITH A MILD START TO THE
DAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS MAY APPROACH NEAR 60F OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SCNTRL. WITH W WINDS...COOLEST CONDITIONS BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA (AROUND 40F ALONG WRN SHORELINE). IT WILL BE A
BREEZY/WINDY DAY AS WEAK CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
MIXED LAYER AND TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. INCORPORATED SOME OF THE
NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW GUSTS TO ARRIVE AT WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30-40MPH
RANGE OVER MAINLY THE W HALF. SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS MAY APPROACH
WIND ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TO A COLDER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH SATURDAY SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC LOW
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. A TRAILING WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM
A SFC HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY BUILDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LOW...SO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A TERTIARY AND MORE POTENT TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE
OUTSKIRTS OF THE LEFT EXIT OF A 100KT UPPER JET STREAM OVER NORTHERN
MN. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO APPROACHES AT THIS TIME. BEST
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CENTRAL AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FRIDAY EVENING.
WEAK MID AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SATURDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THIS POINT AND LEAD
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINING FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE. A FAIRLY BROAD TROUGH WILL BE BUILDING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS ARE LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS RUNS HAVE BECOME LESS PROGRESSIVE OVER TIME. THIS
LEADS TO AT LEAST SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
A BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM FRIDAYS TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS
WI AND LOWER MI. WITH AN OPEN PATH FOR GULF MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTHWARD...THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER CHANCES OF A
MODERATE RAIN EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AMPLE SUPPORT SHOULD
BE PRESENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 110KT UPPER JET COLLOCATED
WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 290-295K THETA SFCS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE RESPONSE TO
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. MODELS
HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE ON PRECIP FOR THIS REASON. WHILE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH MAY LIMIT QPF...ENOUGH OTHER FACTORS ARE IN
PLACE TO TO PUT LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH INCREASED
QPF. ALSO...WEAK SFC TO LOW-LEVEL BASED INSTABILITY WILL REACH AS
FAR NORTH AS UPPER MI...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS NOTED...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE
ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY FALL...SO KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THAT TIME. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF FROM A COLDER AND WETTER
FORECAST MONDAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA AND BRINGS ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA AS OPPOSED TO WET SNOW AS NOTED YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS
TIME. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS BY MID-WEEK. THE COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOULD COME JUST IN TIME TO MOSTLY STOP SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND
SLOW RIVER RISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND GUST IN THE 20-25KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET 2KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE
(TO 50-55KTS) WILL LEAD TO SOME LLWS AT KCMX AND KSAW WHERE GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE SOME THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LEAD TO A COUPLE HOUR
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THIS EVENINGY. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (35-40KTS)...BUT THE
ICE COVER ON THE LAKE SHOULD HELP CREATE A MARINE LAYER TO KEEP THE
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MAYBE A FEW GALE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER HIGHER
PLATFORMS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE STRONG WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT ON
THURSDAY...SO CONTINUE TO THINK WINDS WILL BE 20-30KTS AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGHER PLATFORMS HAVING GALE FORCE GUSTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WINDS STAYING
BELOW 25KTS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND (SAT NIGHT INTO SUN)...BUT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN). ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN 0.15 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 30S) AND BRING A
STOP TO THE SNOWMELT.
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...SNOWMELT WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THURSDAY (TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING) AND LEAD TO
PERSISTENT RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...SRF/KLUBER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
156 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. ANOTHER FEATURE TO NOTE IS THE WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THAT CAME ONSHORE OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DRIVER FOR INTENSIFYING THE LOW IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MOISTURE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE HAS LED TO SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND EVEN PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOSER TO
UPPER MICHIGAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING EXPERIENCED BUT
THOSE MID CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING INTO THE 20S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA UNDER LIGHT WINDS FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...THOSE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MID
CLOUDS SHIFTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THEY SHIFT TO THE EAST. THESE
MID CLOUDS WILL BE CAUSED BY BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING
UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND PULLING MUCH WARMER
AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BROAD
WAA...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TO STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN (CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
850-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) AND AWAY FROM THE VERY DRY AIR BELOW
7KFT.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA TODAY WILL LEAD TO AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY TODAY.
MODELS ARE INDICATING 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AT LEAST 8C BY 00Z
THURSDAY OVER THE WEST. NOT SURE IF MIXING WILL GET THAT HIGH...BUT
FEEL THAT MIXING TO 900MB IS REASONABLE. THINK THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OVERESTIMATE THE COOLING FROM THE EXISTING SNOWPACK AND WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THE WEST. THIS WAS THE CASE
FOR THIS PAST WEEKEND AND EARLIER THIS WORK WEEK AND WITH THE
INCREASING WARM AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. THEREFORE...HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S OVER THE WEST HALF
AND COOLER VALUES OVER THE EAST DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...THE STRONG LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING JAMES BAY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHWESTERN MICHIGAN AND THEN CONTINUE EAST WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THERE ARE A COUPLE ITEMS OF CONCERN AS IT HEADS INTO THE
CWA. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW STAYS OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...WHILE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL PUSH
FROM THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND IN
WISCONSIN. COULD LEAD TO SOME GAPS IN THE COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
SOME SCATTERING OF THE PRECIP AS THE FORCING SPLITS...BUT FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS TO PUT A 2-3HR PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS IN FOR WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH IT AS IT DEPARTS. AS FOR TIMING...HAVE THE SHOWERS MOVING
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND 06Z...CENTRAL AROUND 08Z...EASTERN AROUND
10Z. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. DID CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEBATED PUSHING
THEM EAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN SINCE THE STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR COVERAGE TO SCATTER OUT
AND HEADING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...OPTED TO LEAVE OUT.
IN ADDITION...03Z SREF CALIBRATED 3HR THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ONLY HAD A COUPLE SMALL AREAS OF 5 PERCENT PROBS IN THE CWA. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE POTENTIAL SPLITTING...LEFT QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER 0.1 INCH TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
FINALLY...THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND THEN
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEHIND THE
FRONT. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
DURING THE LONG TERM....PATTERN WILL RETURN TO ONE THAT WAS COMMON
DURING THE WINTER. A RIDGE WILL BUILD THRU THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO
NW NAMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL FORCE A RATHER DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP THRU THE CNTRL INTO THE ERN CONUS. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN WHETHER OR NOT THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL YIELD A HVY PCPN
SYSTEM FOR THE GREAT LAKES AS MANY GFS/ECMWF RUNS SUGGESTED OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IN ANY EVENT...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PCPN WITH THE BEST CHC PROBABLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...
WARMTH/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO START THE LONG TERM WILL TRANSITION TO
BLO NORMAL TEMPS (POTENTIALLY WELL BLO NORMAL) EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOW
MODERATION WILL THEN OCCUR THEREAFTER.
BEGINNNING THU...STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEP SFC LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO
IN THE MORNING WILL MOVE TO WRN QUEBEC DURING THE DAY. WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE SE FCST AREA OR JUST TO THE SE AT
12Z...ONLY INCLUDED CHC POPS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA THRU
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY UNDER
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. INCOMING AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C OVER THE S AND -3 TO -4C N. WITH A
MILD START TO THE DAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY SNEAK ABOVE 60F OVER THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OF THE SCNTRL. WITH W WINDS...COOLEST CONDITIONS BE OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA (AROUND 40F ALONG WRN SHORELINE). IT WILL BE A
BREEZY/WINDY DAY AS WEAK CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING BUILD MIXED LAYER
AND TAP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT RESULTING FROM DEEP LOW PRES WELL TO
THE N AND NE. INCORPORATED SOME OF THE NAM GUSTS TO ARRIVE AT WIND
GUSTS INTO THE 30-40MPH RANGE OVER MAINLY THE W HALF. SUSTAINED
WINDS/GUSTS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH WIND ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE
KEWEENAW.
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN AMPLIFICATION...
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE SHIFTING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES FRI...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT -SHRA. WHILE THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY ASSERTIVE WITH PCPN FRI...THE ECMWF
HAS ONLY RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS. WITH SUPPORT ALSO FROM THE
NAM AND UKMET...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP TO LOW CHC OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA FRI. BEST CHC WILL BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE SAT THRU MON TIME FRAME IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FCST
AND PROVIDES THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. FOR MANY DAYS...GFS/ECMWF RUNS
SUGGESTED A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT SOMETIME DURING THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM THAT SCENARIO OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/UKMET...THE
ECMWF HAS NOT WAVERED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ACTION WILL BEGIN WITH
RIDGE AMPLIFICATION THRU THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO NW NAMERICA OVER
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL FORCE TROF AMPLIFICATION S THRU THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW A LARGE MASS OF LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR TO
PUSH S TOWARD THE CNTRL CONUS UNDER THE AMPLIFYING TROF WHILE THE
GULF OF MEXICO OPENS FOR BUSINESS WITH CONSIDERABLE WARMTH/MOISTURE
STREAMING N AHEAD OF THE TROF. ALL THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A
SPRING-TIME HVY PCPN EVENT. WITH A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES INVOLVED...
DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE TROF AMPLIFICATION AND TIMING/INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVES WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHAT ULTIMATELY HAPPENS. WAVES
INVOLVED INCLUDE ONE MOVING E INTO SRN CA AND ONE DROPPING SSE THRU
THE PACIFIC NW SAT AND THEN MORE ENERGY DROPPING S TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT. IN THE ECMWF SCENARIO...THE AXIS OF THE AMPLIFYING
MID/UPPER TROF IS FARTHER W OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THERE IS MUCH
MORE SHORTWAVE INTERACTION/PHASING...RESULTING IN A SLOW MOVING
SHARP COLD FRONT WITH THE SRN CA SHORTWAVE GENERATING A SFC WAVE
THAT BRINGS A BAND OF MDT TO HVY SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN NIGHT/MON.
IN THE GFS SCENARIO...THE AMPLIFYING TROF IS FARTHER E...WHICH
RESULTS IN THE NE MOVING SFC WAVE TO BE MUCH FARTHER E...NOT
AFFECTING UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ITS LEADING SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN
STREAM PRODUCES A MORE WELL-DEFINED LOW THAT BRINGS A STREAK MDT
PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT/SAT NIGHT. WHILE IT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...HESITANT TO FAVOR THE ECMWF GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN VERY
COMPLEX INTERACTION OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT IT SHOWS TAKING
PLACE. WITH THE GFS HAVING SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/UKMET...FCST WILL
LEAN MORE IN THAT DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THAT DECISION IS BOOSTED
SOME WITH TODAYS 00Z ECMWF AS IT IS NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW TRENDS
TOWARD THE GFS/GEM/UKMET.
ON SAT...STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
THE AREA. GFS THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW. THE GEM AND
ECMWF ARE WARMER...SUGGESTING ONLY LIQUID. FOR NOW...FCST WILL
REFLECT A MOSTLY RAIN SCENARIO SAT THAT WILL TRANSITION TOWARD
MOSTLY SNOW AS THE PCPN DIMINISHES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. PCPN MAY
IN FACT END SUN...LEAVING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MON AND TUE. THE
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD COME JUST IN TIME TO MOSTLY STOP
SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND SLOW RIVER RISES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND GUST IN THE 20-25KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET 2KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE
(TO 50-55KTS) WILL LEAD TO SOME LLWS AT KCMX AND KSAW WHERE GUSTS
WILL SUBSIDE SOME THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LEAD TO A COUPLE HOUR
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (35-45KTS)...BUT THINKING THE ICE
COVER ON THE LAKE WILL HELP CREATE A MARINE LAYER TO KEEP THE
SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BUT...HIGH PLATFORMS MAY SEE GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE VALUES. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT ON THURSDAY...SO CONTINUE TO THINK
WINDS WILL BE 20-30KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHER PLATFORMS
HAVING GALE FORCE GUSTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW 25KTS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT WED APR 9 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL
NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN). ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN 0.15 TO 0.5 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 30S) AND BRING A
STOP TO THE SNOWMELT.
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY (TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY WELL
ABOVE FREEZING) AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE
EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL
THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR
THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE
FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
119 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
NOTE: THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW AS WELL.
DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS TODAY BY 2-4 DEGREES BASED ON
00-06Z MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ADJUSTING FOR THE COOL BIAS OVER THE
PAST WEEK. THE COOL BIAS WITH FORECAST HIGHS WERE APPARENT IN BOTH
THE MPX FORECAST AND IN MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS ON THE
HIGH END OF THE MODEL SOLUTION ENVELOPE...WHICH IS A GOOD PLACE TO
BE ON DAYS LIKE TODAY. WE ALMOST NEVER GO WARM ENOUGH...AND MODEL
OUTPUT TENDS TO RUN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL/MOIST WITH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. WE USED A BLENDED MODEL FORECAST AND THEN
ADJUSTED UP 5 DEGREES BASED ON THE 925-850MB THERMAL PROFILE AND
STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS A BATCH
OF 10KFT CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS MORNING...BUT WE THINK THIS WILL
CLEAR BY THE LATE MORNING AND LEAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE DOESN`T ARRIVE IN FAR EASTERN MN
AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL 18-00Z...SO BE PATIENT WITH THE WARMING
TODAY IN THESE AREAS. WE MIGHT END UP WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
4-4:30PM...RATHER THAN 2-3PM. BEHIND THE WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL COME A COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WE COULDN`T REALLY JUSTIFY RAISING POPS
TOO MUCH FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOR TONIGHT. WE DID
INCLUDE LIKELY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BASICALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE POST-FRONTAL SATURATION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.
SOUTH OF HERE WE HAVE SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS AND A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS LIGHT QPF...BUT PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND AND
THERE MIGHT BE A LOT OF VIRGA. MOST AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE TRACE-0.04" RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FIRST OFF...IT`S NICE TO SEE THE 09.00Z ECMWF MOSTLY REMOVED THE
TWO SNOW EVENTS IT HAD LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS STARTING TO GARNER SOME
ATTENTION. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED MODEL OUTPUT IS STILL NOT
OPTIMISTIC IN MAINTAINING ANY SORT OF WARMTH AS WE TRANSITION FROM
SPLIT FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO A PRONOUNCED CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT COLD DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL /POTENTIALLY AS COLD AS 20-25 BELOW NORMAL/ FOR A COUPLE
DAYS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF YOU BUY THE SLOWER...DEEPER ECMWF.
THOSE 850 MB TEMPS EARLY TO MID WEEK ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF
FEBRUARY. THE GFS ISN`T QUITE AS BAD MON-WED...BUT THERE ARE SOME
GLARING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
THERE ARE A COUPLE DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. THERE
IS A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT THE FORCING ISN`T
OVERLY STRONG. WE COULD STILL SHAKE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES ON SATURDAY WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS AND RESPECTABLE 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSING UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD
ALSO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 20-40DM HEIGHT FALLS
DURING THE DAY. SO...THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES
OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE FORCING WILL ALSO BE OVER A LARGE AREA...SO IF
THE SIGNAL CONTINUES...WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MOVE TOWARD LIKELY
POPS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-22KTS WITH
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SAID FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...SPREADING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH ARRIVAL BETWEEN 00Z /KAXN/ AND 05Z
/KEAU/. HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING BY 1-2 HOURS PER MODEL TRENDS. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE DURATION OF ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
TO AROUND A 4 HOUR WINDOW. COVERAGE OF ANY TS IS TOO LOW AT THIS
POINT TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. COULD ALSO SEE SCT- BKN 2500-3000FT
CLOUDS WITH/BEHIND THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MN/WI BORDER
AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...PRECIP/CLOUDS EXIT
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH THE ONLY REMAINING CONCERN IN THE
PERIOD BEING ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS...THIS TIME FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SPEEDS INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS AROUND 15Z.
KMSP...
TRICKY WIND DIRECTION FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ON WHEN THE SWITCH TO 220 DEGREES WILL OCCUR...BUT HI-RES
MODELS ARE POINTING TO 21-22Z. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE IN 1-2 HOURS SOONER THAN DEPICTED
BY THE PREVIOUS TAF...SO BROUGHT IN -SHRA AT 04Z. VSBY REDUCTIONS
WOULD BE MINOR AND COULD SEE SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL
/2500-3000 FT/. SKIES CLEAR BETWEEN 09Z AND DAYBREAK THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15-18KTS AND GUSTS 25-30KTS DEVELOPING BY
15Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE RED FLAG
WARNING ACROSS MOST OF THE WIND FAVORED AREAS. THE WEATHER ELEMENT
WITH THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IS STILL THE HUMIDITY. TOOK A
FAIR AMOUNT OF WORK IN THE GRIDS TO GET HUMIDITIES DOWN INTO THE
20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THESE TYPES OF WEATHER
PATTERNS...FORECAST MODELS RUN A COOL/MOIST BIAS...THE BIG QUESTION
FOR TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT WE OVER CORRECTED FOR SAID COOL/MOIST
BIAS. FOR THE CURRENT HUMIDITY FORECAST TO WORK OUT...WE WILL NEED
TO SEE MIXING HEIGHTS BUILD TO ABOVE 800 MB AS THE RAP AND NAM
INDICATE AND ALSO HOPE WE DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH POOLING OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NODAK/NW MN BY THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30-35
MPH WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT...IT WAS
DECIDED BY ALL OFFICES TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND GO WITH THE
EXPANDED RED FLAG WARNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN RED FLAG
CRITERIA BEING MET IN SW MN /WHERE INITIAL WARNING WAS ISSUED/ AND
DOES GRADUALLY DECREASE SOME AS YOU HEAD EAST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-048-
054>058-064>067-073>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...LS
FIRE WEATHER...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
102 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHER PLAINS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SKIES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
AT 08Z WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 40 TO 45 MOST LOCATIONS. THE UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...NOT TOO FAR FROM NORTHERN MONTANA ATTM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
FOR TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BREAK
DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS ACROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS INTO
NORTHERN WYOMING. AS THIS OCCURS...A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS TOP OUT AROUND 20C...AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...AND
WITH THIS SETUP GUIDANCE TO LIKELY UNDER FCST HIGHS. ALSO WILL SEE A
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WIND 15 TO 30 MPH AND CONTINUED FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 80.
FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA
BY 07Z THURSDAY. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 10 MPH BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF PCPN TO DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AS
IT IS PUSHING INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS. HOWEVER...PCPN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE LI`S WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...SO WHERE MARGINAL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NCTRL
WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL 06Z THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS
THERE AFTER. FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE I80 CORRIDOR AFTER 02Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
12Z THURSDAY AND BEYOND. LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
USHER A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...SOLID SURFACE HEATING WILL WORK WITH STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 AS THE WAVE APPROACHES.
THEREAFTER THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
WAVE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REMAINS
SEASONAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER A LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA PROFILE. HIGHS WILL
RETURN BACK INTO THE 70 FOR ALL LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AS THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND CURED
FUELS. ATTM MINIMUM RH LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON /~20 PERCENT/...WITH THE LOWEST
READINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FIRE ZONES /204 & 210/. WIND SPEEDS
ARE IN QUESTION TOO...WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL OF
LESS THAN 20 MPH. ATTM NO ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED.
FOR SATURDAY...MILD CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WILL USHER A STRONG CANADIAN COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ATOP WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH STRONG CAA FILLING SOUTH...BUT THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ARRIVAL SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE FRONT ARRIVES
LACKING ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE FOR QPF...SO WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS COME BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY. STRONG CAA
TO FILTER SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHILE A SECONDARY PIECE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE KEYING IN ON A DEFINED FRONTOGENETIC BAND
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EXTENDED NORTHEAST
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. H85 T/S ARE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW...BUT 2M T/S ARE INDICATED TO REMAIN ABOVE 0C
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WILL RETAIN RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX AS
THE PRIMARY PTYPES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT IF SNOW WERE TO
FALL...IT MAY STRUGGLE TO COLLECT ON ANYTHING BESIDE GRASSY
SURFACES. BEYOND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY QUICK TO FORCE THE
COLD AIR EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE WARM UP WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS AN ADDITIONAL WAVE SHOULD FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME MIDWEEK...WITH LIGHT QPF POSSIBLE. ECMWF GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER WEAK ARCTIC HIGH...THE GFS EVENTUALLY DROPS A CANADIAN
HIGH SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT IS 24-36 SLOWER THAN THE EC
CAMP. SO BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...FORECAST CONSISTENCY IS LOW...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY EVENING. COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE LOW AS DRY AIR WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER COVERAGE DOES NOT
WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF. TOMORROW WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE
AVIATION CONCERNS AS WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
HIGHS AROUND 80 TODAY...WILL COMBINE WITH DRY AIR TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE 25 TO 30 AND
SEE LITTLE REASON FOR DEW POINTS TO BE HIGHER TODAY. FOLLOWED LAST COUPLE
OF EVENTS AND DROPPED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY BELOW GOING MODEL GUIDANCE.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 07Z RAP MODEL FORECASTING DEW POINTS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS FROM THEDFORD SOUTHWEST THROUGH IMPERIAL WITH LOWER 20S
ELSEWHERE...NOT READY TO GO THAT LOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW POINT
TRENDS CLOSELY TODAY. RESULTING RH VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MORNING AND INCREASE
FURTHER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE MARGINAL AT TIMES IN SOME
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO
25 TO 30 MPH BY 21Z. THUS RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS ON TRACK TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
347 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST THUS
MAX GUSTS MAY BE OVER HERE...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LATEST 18Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...AND LINGERING THROUGH MID EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE.
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW
LEVEL AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH INCREASING
BULK SHEAR AND FAVORABLE INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD INDICATED THAT
IF WE DO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND EXIT OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AROUND
9 PM. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS THEREAFTER.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW TRAVERSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BECOMING
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH A CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PACIFIC COAST
RIDGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS A NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL START TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS THE COLD OUTLIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL REACH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KDIK...KBIS AND KJMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. CURRENT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER EASTERN DICKEY
COUNTY WITH STRONGEST WINDS YET TO ARRIVE. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
DOES MOVE THROUGH...HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE QUICKLY...THUS
THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 8 PM LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN. HIGH
FLOWS FROM SNOWMELT RUNOFF FROM THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE CEDAR
AND CANNONBALL BASINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CANNONBALL AT
BREIEN TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...WHILE HIGH FLOWS ARE NOTED ON THE HEART RIVER ACROSS
EASTERN STARK AND INTO MORTON COUNTY...WATER IS BEING ATTENUATED
BY HEART BUTTE DAM AND NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. FINALLY...FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AND THE WILLOW
CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013-019>023-034-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ025-035>037-
045>048-050-051.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
109 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE TEMPERATURE
FELL FROM 59 TO 50 DEGREES IN CROSBY DURING THE PAST HOUR. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S...WITH A FEW
70S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RADAR
COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. LATEST RAP
AND HRRR ARE INDICATING BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SPREADING WEST TO EAST...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200.
THUS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE SOUTH CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY AND BUMPED UP WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON FIRE WEATHER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO BETTER TRACK CLOUD
COVER BY INCREASING THE AMOUNT TO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY WEST THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FOLLOWING THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. HELD OFF IN ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS THE COLD FRONT WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 21Z. THE DURATION/STRENGTH/AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE COMPLICATED DUE TO
THE DOWNDRAFT/EVAPORATION AL PROCESSES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT VERSUS COLD AIR ADVECTION/MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
DAY SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THIS
AFTERNOON AND AS PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZES. INVERTED V-TYPE
SOUNDINGS AT KBIS AND KJMS AS THE FRONT MOVES POSES A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS PER SPC DISCUSSION.
THIS IS ALSO IS IN THE NON-WIND ADVISORY AREA MENTIONED ABOVE.
BASED ON TUESDAYS HIGHS AND 850MB TEMPS...HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS INTO
THE MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA PRIOR TO THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. DEEP MIXING WITH H850 TEMPS PEAKING OUT AT
+12C TO +13C EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A SPIKE IN HIGH
TEMPS TO MATERIALIZE AT THE SFC. MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS. WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED
APR 9 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK REX BLOCK
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN US. THIS LEADS TO DOWNSTREAM
H5 TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US AND CANADA AND
SIGNALS A RETURN TO A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER WHAT WILL BE
SOME OF THE MILDEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS SPRING ON WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES (BUT REALLY NEAR NORMAL) FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A HEALTHY LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE CENTRAL US PLAINS BY SUNDAY THAT
WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. THE ALLBLEND GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ARE NOT DISPUTED AS THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. SAW NOTHING TO CAUSE THE
DEPARTURE FROM THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL REACH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
AFTER COORDINATION WITH FGF AND ABR...AND TALKING WITH THE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGER IN DICKEY COUNTY...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR DICKEY COUNTY IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS NOT LARGE...LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTION A PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES
OVER DICKEY COUNTY BY MID AFTERNOON. EMERGENCY MANAGER SUGGESTS
THAT TALL VEGETATION IS VERY DRY AND SHOULD ANY FIRES
START IN THIS VEGETATION...THEY WOULD SPREAD VERY QUICKLY...EVEN
GIVEN THE WET SOILS. WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON A WELL MIXED WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND SHIFT
NORTHWEST AND A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED. THUS HAVE
ISSUED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR DICKEY COUNTY AND IN
ADDITION...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO COVER OUR SOUTHEAST CWA.
THE RFW GOES THROUGH 8 PM...WITH THE ADVISORY EXPIRING AT 10 PM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ACROSS THE HEART RIVER BASIN...FLOWS ARE DECREASING UPSTREAM OF
DICKINSON...WITH THE LEAD PULSE OF THE WATER CURRENTLY BEING
ATTENUATED BY HEART BUTTE DAM.
ACROSS THE CEDAR CREEK AND CANNONBALL BASINS...ELEVATED FLOWS ARE
NOTED FROM THE HEADWATERS...TO THE CONFLUENCE NEAR RALEIGH. FLOOD
STAGE IS POSSIBLE ON THE CANNONBALL NEAR BREIEN OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
FINALLY...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOURIS NEAR
TOWNER AND THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013-019>023-034-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ025-035>037-045>048-050-051.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
328 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY OFF
THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLS NEAR
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND PUSH OFF THE THE COAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE LARGE LAPSE RATES. SPC MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE AT 1830Z WAS CLOSE TO 7 DEGREES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CAPE ARE SMALL BUT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOLAR HEATING.
WITH A LOW FREEZING LEVEL...A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE
WITH SMALL HAIL. THE NAM...GFS AND HRRR PLACED THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION THIS EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE MAIN TROUGH.
ECMWF SHOWED SOME SHOWERS WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD...EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY. LEANED
TOWARDS THE ADJMAVBC WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE
COLDER MOUNTAINS VALLEYS TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE HIGH CENTER CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL RESULT IN STRONG WAA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
10 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MODELS SEEM OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12 GFS SHOWING MORE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY. MADE FORECAST
TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. STILL LOOKS WARM/MILD AHEAD FRONT
FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
SHOULD BE A DIFFUSE FRONT WITH SFC LOW APPEARING RATHER WEAK AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THE UPPER FORCING OVERALL
APPEARS BEST FROM CENTRAL WV NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WILL
HAVE HIGH CHANCE OVER THE NW CWA WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LVLS IS THERE...SO SOME THUNDER
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GOING TO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP WEAKENS BUT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR SHOWER CHANCES TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NRN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING MILD/WARM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 214 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MODELS SIMILAR IN BRINGING FRONT IN BY TUESDAY. AHEAD OF IT
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOWER 80S OUT IN SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT
SUNDAY. OVERALL MOST PLACES WILL BE IN THE 70S SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY...SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS BACKING OFF ON PRECIP THREAT BUT GIVEN THE SW FLOW
AND SOME OVERALL CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LVLS SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE THREAT OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WILL SEE FRONT EXIT BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WARM UP AGAIN THEREAFTER WITH
HEIGHTS RISING AHEAD OF NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. COLDER AIR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS AREA LIKELY UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES...CEILINGS
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
141 PM EDT WED APR 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES
SLOWLY OFF THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE A FRONT POTENTIALLY
STALLS NEAR THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
AS OF 905 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. INCREASED
POPS FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES ACCORDING TO LATEST OBS AND RAISED UP HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE RICHEST
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON.
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN THE
PIEDMONT AND WAS MOVING EAST. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 8AM. THE SECOND CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS WAS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO CREATE
LARGE LAPSE RATES. WITH SMALL CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL
ENERGY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. THE 06Z RUN OF THE HRRR SUGGESTED THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIME AND LOCATION WOULD BE FROM 2-6PM EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. ENOUGH CLOUDS TO LIMIT HEATING TODAY. HAVE STAYED
CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND
WILL EXTENDED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD...EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE IN THE SHELTERED AND
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ONCE THE SUN SETS. AGAIN BIAS CORRECTED MAV
GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GOOD WAA ON SW FLOW THURSDAY PUSHES H85 TEMPS FROM ABOUT 3C IN THE
MORNING TO NEARLY 10C IN THE WEST BY LATER THURSDAY. WITH CLOUDS
HOLDING OFF...MANY LOCALES SHOULD REACH 70F. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SINK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY. BUT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW DOWNSLOPING WIND...MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...AND NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
EVEN ACROSS SE WEST VA. FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS SNEAK
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS...BUT
ONLY WORTHY OF A SLT CHC POP AT THIS TIME. MOST SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER SE WEST VA...SPECIFICALLY
GREENBRIER COUNTY. DESPITE CLOUDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX T
WILL REMAIN WARM WITH H85 TEMPS CLOSE TO 10C EACH DAY. AS THE FRONT
LOSES DEFINITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WITH SOME CLEARING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE WPC GUIDANCE/12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR
THE EXTENDED. MAIN SYSTEM SHOULD WORK TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH FULL SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS.
COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ON
MONDAY. FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OVER US TUESDAY WITH SFC LOW MOVING
ALONG IT TO KEEP THREAT OF RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...COOLING OFF MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS ATERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. COLDER AIR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS AREA LIKELY UNTIL SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES...CEILINGS
AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1026 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
HYDROLOGY...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
549 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE SO FAR TODAY AND RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S WEST. THE REAL WARM AIR
RESIDES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE MIDDLE
70S. AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND
RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY. THEN CLOUDS WILL BE
RAPIDLY ON THE INCREASE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06-07Z. DECENT QG FORCING ALOFT COMBINED
WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET FOR ALL
LOCATIONS TO SEE LIGHT RAINFALL FOR A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY SO NOT LOOKING AT A LOT OF RAIN.,.AND SHOULD
NOT IMPACT RIVERS MUCH. LOWS WILL BE MILD DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND INCOMING CLOUD COVER. WILL GO WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINISH CROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO BE
ONGOING. WILL PROBABLY NEED AN UMBRELLA FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THEN THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE MORNING AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
REMAIN SEASONABLE. LOOK FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS...QPF AMOUNTS AND THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S.
INCREASING SW WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES (50S
AND LOWER 60S) INTO THE REGION. WAA...COMBINED WITH A S/W TROF AND
JET STREAK ARRIVING DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL TRIGGER SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS IN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM). HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE FCST IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
S/W TROF ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS GULF
MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO WI IN ADVANCE OF AN INVERTED SFC TROF/
COLD FRONT...ON THE NOSE OF A 40-45 KT LLJ. THE PCPN MAY BE
ENHANCED OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC WAVE RIPPLES NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH COULD ENHANCE RIVER FLOODING ISSUES OVER C/EC/NE WI...
WHERE MANY RIVERS ARE RUNNING OVER BANKFULL.
FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF MOVMT OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT ANOTHER SFC
WAVE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS...WE MAY SEE SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONTAL PCPN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF WI ON MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH SMALL
PCPN CHANCES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND WINDS AT 1000 FT AGL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 40 TO 50
KNOTS. THE WIND SHEAR WILL END AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
RIVERS ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 HAVE BEEN
RESPONDING TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WITH THE RATHER DRY SPRING...THE LATE MELT OF THE SNOW PACK
AND LINGERING FROST DEPTH...RIVER LEVELS OVERALL ARE BEHAVING.
NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE WISCONSIN RIVER
AND TRIBUTARIES AND WOLF RIVER AS WELL AS PESHTIGO AND OCONTO WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND FS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHIOCTON
IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE WARNING LATER THIS WEEK. SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND MAY
PRODUCE UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER THESE BASINS...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO THIS SYSTEM
THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM
HYDROLOGY......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
328 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 500MB RAP HEIGHTS SHOWS
DEEP TROUGH MARCHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WITH UPSTREAM
RIDGING EXTENDING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE WEST
COAST. IN THE PAST 24 HOURS THIS RIDGE HAS BROKEN
DOWN...INDICATING A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN THE DAYS TO
COME. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF INTEREST ARE SKIRTING ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM NORTH DAKOTA WESTWARD TO NORTHWEST
MONTANA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA. ITS A WARM...BREEZY AFTERNOON AS
READINGS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE 60S...BRUSHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN / NORTHERN IA.
MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TAP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE MILD
AIRMASS...LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50.
EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z ACROSS THE AREA. COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL PV
ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE GREATEST FORCING EXISTS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A LOOK AT THE HI-RES MODELS
SUGGESTS LIGHT ACTIVITY ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER AS WELL. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR IS THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND FEEL THAT A
LOT OF THE FORCING/LIFT WILL GO INTO SATURATION
INITIALLY...LIMITING QPF. AT THE SAME TIME...ITS PASSAGE DURING
THE NIGHT WILL LIMIT ANY TSTORM POTENTIAL LOCALLY...WITH
INSTABILITY WANING AND MAINLY LIMITED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR
THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
I-94.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
IN...THOUGH ITS AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFIED A BIT. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DROP TOMORROW...AND SHOULD BE A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON FOR MOST. HIGHS MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
MANY FEATURES TO FOCUS ON IN THE LONG TERM...BUT THE BIG PICTURE
IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...YET MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS
FEATURE. MAINLY STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE
GFS/NAM/GEM CAMP A FASTER AND DRIER SOLUTION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WHILE THE
09.12Z ECMWF HAS BETTER SATURATION WHICH PAINTS LIGHT QPF ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. PUSHED HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF...MAINLY IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE IS MUCH STRONGER WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. 09.12Z GUIDANCE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING WEST OF
THE AREA...BUT MOVE IN DURING THE DAY. THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER
WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF AND THE NAM TO SOME DEGREE HOLD THE COLD FRONT
BACK THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ON THE
BOUNDARY. AS THIS NORTHERN / INITIAL WAVE MOVES OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT...A SECONDARY SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTING
THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE WAVE EJECTS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA ON
THE COLDER...NORTHWEST FRINGE. THIS TREND SEEMS TO HAVE CONTINUED
IN THE 09.12Z GUIDANCE. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CONFINED SOUTHEAST OF A
CHARLES CITY IOWA TO LA CROSSE TO NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN LINE.
SOME REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS /0.75 TO 1.5 IN/ ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...RESULTING IN SOME MINOR RISES ON AREA
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND TRIBUTARIES.
TEMPERATURE WISE...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE A TAD WARMER...MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S AND THEN A FEW DEGREES LESS ON SATURDAY.
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CRASH TO THE -5 TO -7C RANGE...FALLING TO AROUND -10C
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS ARE MID TO
UPPER 50S/MID 30S...SO GET EXCITED FOR ANOTHER STRETCH OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
DAKOTAS HAS LED TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY AT RST. BOTH SITES BY 20Z...THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING...SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. AS NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN THIS EVENING...PLAN ON
WINDS TO DIMINISH SOME...PARTICULARLY AT LSE BEING IN THE VALLEY.
WITH A 45-50 KT JET CORE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING BETWEEN 1500-2000
FT ABOVE THE GROUND AT BOTH TAF SITES...ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TO THE LSE TAF. THE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PASS THROUGH THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 06-07Z...ENDING THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER PASSAGE.
LOOK FOR THESE NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT RST WHERE MORE SUN OCCURS. GUSTS OF 20-25
KT SEEM LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT BOTH SITES.
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AND BEYOND. A COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A 4000 FT
CEILING LOOKS LIKELY AT BOTH TAF SITES...BETWEEN 09-13Z...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT WARMED UP TO THIS POINT AS MUCH AS
EXPECTED...RESULTING IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS HAVE
STAYED LOWER IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...CAUSING LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES THERE. THESE CURRENT CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE
RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE DROPPED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND ISSUED OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...FUELS SUPPORT THE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...RESULTING IN LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
THEREFORE...HAVE ALLOWED THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING TO CONTINUE.
RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT LOOKS
MINIMAL...MAYBE A 0.10 OF AN INCH AT BEST. THIS LACK OF RAIN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND CANADIAN DRY AIR ON
THURSDAY BRINGS UP CONCERN OF FIRE CONDITIONS AGAIN. ONE POSITIVE
IS THAT HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE 60. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE 25
PERCENT. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HOWEVER...FUEL FORECASTS FOR CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUGGEST ONLY
ELEVATED CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME...THUS DID NOT CONSIDER ANY FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ZT
LONG TERM......ZT
AVIATION.......AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE SO FAR TODAY AND RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S WEST. THE REAL WARM AIR
RESIDES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE MIDDLE
70S. AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND
RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY. THEN CLOUDS WILL BE
RAPIDLY ON THE INCREASE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06-07Z. DECENT QG FORCING ALOFT COMBINED
WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET FOR ALL
LOCATIONS TO SEE LIGHT RAINFALL FOR A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY SO NOT LOOKING AT A LOT OF RAIN.,.AND SHOULD
NOT IMPACT RIVERS MUCH. LOWS WILL BE MILD DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND INCOMING CLOUD COVER. WILL GO WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINISH CROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO BE
ONGOING. WILL PROBABLY NEED AN UMBRELLA FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THEN THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY LATE
IN THE MORNING AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
REMAIN SEASONABLE. LOOK FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS...QPF AMOUNTS AND THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S.
INCREASING SW WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES (50S
AND LOWER 60S) INTO THE REGION. WAA...COMBINED WITH A S/W TROF AND
JET STREAK ARRIVING DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL TRIGGER SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS IN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM). HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO THE FCST IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
S/W TROF ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS GULF
MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO WI IN ADVANCE OF AN INVERTED SFC TROF/
COLD FRONT...ON THE NOSE OF A 40-45 KT LLJ. THE PCPN MAY BE
ENHANCED OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC WAVE RIPPLES NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH COULD ENHANCE RIVER FLOODING ISSUES OVER C/EC/NE WI...
WHERE MANY RIVERS ARE RUNNING OVER BANKFULL.
FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF MOVMT OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT ANOTHER SFC
WAVE WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS...WE MAY SEE SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONTAL PCPN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF WI ON MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH SMALL
PCPN CHANCES AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LLWS AROUND 1
KFT OFF THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING...AND BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
RIVERS ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 HAVE BEEN
RESPONDING TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WITH THE RATHER DRY SPRING...THE LATE MELT OF THE SNOW PACK
AND LINGERING FROST DEPTH...RIVER LEVELS OVERALL ARE BEHAVING.
NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE WISCONSIN RIVER
AND TRIBUTARIES AND WOLF RIVER AS WELL AS PESHTIGO AND OCONTO WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND FS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHIOCTON
IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL MONITOR FOR A
POSSIBLE WARNING LATER THIS WEEK. SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND MAY
PRODUCE UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER THESE BASINS...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO THIS SYSTEM
THIS WEEK.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1227 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
AT 3 AM...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A 925 AND 850 MB
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY 6C THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER 4C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 10K
FEET THIS MORNING...AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING LOOKS TO BE TOO COOL WITH ITS SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND THIS AFFECTS HOW DEEP IT WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON.
IT KEEPS THE 850 TO 800 MB CAP IN PLACE. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND
RAP HAS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THUS IT IS ABLE TO MIX
DOWN THE DRIER AIR FROM THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER ABOVE THE
CAP...THUS IT LOWERS DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.
CONSIDERING THAT THE MOS AND THE SUPER BLEND HAS BEEN RUNNING A
BIT COOL OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS...OPTED TO GO WITH THE WARMER NAM
AND RAP FOR TODAY. WITH THIS SAID...DO THINK THAT THEY MAY BE
MIXED TOO MUCH...SO WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AND ONLY MIXED UP INTO
THE 800 TO 775 MB RANGE. THIS RESULTED IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 70
TO 75 DEGREES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND 63 TO 70 ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /AROUND 25 PERCENT/...STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS...AND DRY FINE FUELS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR...THERE WILL BE A DANGER FOR WILD FIRES ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE WHO PLAN ON DOING
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD MOVE THEIR PLANS TO ANOTHER DAY. IN
ADDITION...ALL CIGARETTE BUTTS SHOULD BE DISCARDED INTO PROPER
PROPER CONTAINERS.
FOR TONIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF IT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS MODERATE 290 TO 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND IT LOWERS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO
LESS THAN 10 MB. DUE TO THIS...WENT MORE WITH THE GFS...GEM...AND
ECMWF THAN THE DRY NAM. WITH THIS SAID...CONCERNED THAT THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO WITH ML CAPES UP TO 250 J/KG INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 09.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO THE BE THE FASTEST WITH MOVING THIS FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO
1.25 INCH RANGE...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. THE
HIGHEST TOTAL LOOK TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS A WAVE MOVES
ALONG THIS FRONT.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE
TOWARD THE GFS WITH ITS LATEST RUN. AS A RESULT...ITS SNOW TOTALS
ARE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT IT SHOWED DURING ITS PREVIOUS 3 RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
DAKOTAS HAS LED TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY AT RST. BOTH SITES BY 20Z...THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING...SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT. AS NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN THIS EVENING...PLAN ON
WINDS TO DIMINISH SOME...PARTICULARLY AT LSE BEING IN THE VALLEY.
WITH A 45-50 KT JET CORE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING BETWEEN 1500-2000
FT ABOVE THE GROUND AT BOTH TAF SITES...ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TO THE LSE TAF. THE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PASS THROUGH THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 06-07Z...ENDING THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER PASSAGE.
LOOK FOR THESE NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT RST WHERE MORE SUN OCCURS. GUSTS OF 20-25
KT SEEM LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT BOTH SITES.
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AND BEYOND. A COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A 4000 FT
CEILING LOOKS LIKELY AT BOTH TAF SITES...BETWEEN 09-13Z...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS /SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH/...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /AROUND 25 PERCENT/...AND DRY FINE
FUELS...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR WILD FIRES TODAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS ALSO DISCOURAGED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 DUE TO THE HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THOSE WHO PLAN ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD MOVE THEIR
PLANS TO ANOTHER DAY. IN ADDITION...ALL CIGARETTE BUTTS SHOULD BE
DISCARDED INTO PROPER CONTAINERS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ041.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE