Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/08/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
855 PM MDT MON APR 7 2014
.UPDATE...MOST SHOWERS AND WINDS DECREASING AS EXPECTED WITH LOSS
OF THE SUNS ENERGY...ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS
WHERE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS SQUEEZING OUT MOISTURE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS OF THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH LESS THAN AN
INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HAVE BLENDED IN
OBSERVATIONS WITH FORECAST AND DECREASED SOME CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VEER TO DRAINAGE
DIRECTIONS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 30 HOURS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN
TOMORROW...HOWEVER SPEEDS WILL STAY BELOW 10 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM MDT MON APR 7 2014/
SHORT TERM...FAIRLY STRONG NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY
OVER THE REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. COMBINATION OF
FAIRLY TIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING CREATING
STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH
FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM SOUTH OVER THE
AREA...WITH RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AIRMASS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER EASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTY DURING THE PAST HOUR. ACROSS MOUNTAINS...WEB CAMS
INDICATING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF
SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES. MOISTURE TO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING
AS DRIER SUBSIDENT AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE AIRMASS
STABILIZING AND BECOMING DRIER...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOULD COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. LATEST RAP
CROSS SECTIONS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING FOR A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THESE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ONTO THE PLAINS. WITH THE
AIRMASS STABILIZING...WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE THOUGH IT
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES FAR EASTERN PLAINS. SKIES TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BUILD INTO COLORADO WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILING. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEAST
AND NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...QG SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LEE
TROUGHING WILL BE GETTING UNDERWAY AS WELL DURING THIS TIME FRAME
LEADING TO WARMER CONDITIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ELEVATING FIRE
DANGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NOT PLANNING ON HOISTING A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THIS. MODELS STILL WANT TO DRAG AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY...MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH...FLATTENING THE RIDGE
AND INCREASING THE GRADIENT ALOFT OVER COLORADO THURSDAY. ALL OF
THIS SHOULD SERVE TO INCREASE THE WINDS A BIT...COOL TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AND BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE FORECAST IN THE MODELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION THEN. MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO COVER
COLORADO ON FRIDAY WITH A BIT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.
ALL OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING A DECENT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOMETIME IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. AS PER USUAL THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE MASS
AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS BETWEEN THE CANADIAN...EUROPEAN
..DGEX AND GFS TO KEEP THE FORECAST PRETTY BROAD BRUSHED AT THIS
POINT FOR THE WEEKEND. ODDLY ENOUGH THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS
AMONGST THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE PERHAPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A STRONG SHOT
OF UPSLOPE THEREAFTER INTO SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS
EVENTUALLY PAN OUT...EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY.
AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA
AIRPORTS...A BIT MORE NORTHWEST AT KBJC. GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS
COMMON...MAINLY AT KDEN. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNLIMITED
CEILINGS AS SHOWERS WELL EAST OF DENVER. WINDS TO DECREASE BY 00Z
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT COUNTERCLOCKWISE WITH DRAINAGE PREVAILING BY
04Z. LATEST RAP IS HINTING THE WINDS WILL SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE GOING TO DRAINAGE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
CLOCKWISE TREND. WINDS TO THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z
TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 KTS. VFR TO CONTINUE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....ET
UPDATE/AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1134 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
ADJUSTED MOST POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...TO BETTER MATCH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
OUR CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH NM...AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY. SOME WEAK ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN RANGES...WHILE SCT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN PLAINS. SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW EXTENSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THIS
MORNING OVER OUR SERN CORNER...THE NAM HOLDS ON TO EXTENSIVE PRECIP
WHILE THE HRRR DRIES THINGS OUT PRETTY QUICKLY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO
BE A BIT TOO DRY WHILE THE NAM AND WRF MAY BE OVERDONE. WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS OVER PROWERS...BACA...AND ERN LAS ANIMAS THIS
MORNING...BUT AMTS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE.
SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY 6000-6500 FEET AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
7K FOOT RANGE TODAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AND H7 TEMPS
WILL FALL FROM AROUND MINUS 4 TO MINUS 8 OR SO BY MONDAY MORNING.
BUT...PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO LOW ELEVATION SNOW
POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT. OVER THE MTS...PERSISTENT SHSN
CONTINUE TODAY...AND WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY PEAKS. AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE
MORNING ZONE PACKAGE. ANOTHER TWO TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER PEAKS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME OVERNIGHT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME COLD
MORNING LOWS LATER TONIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
ON MONDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WL BE FOUND OVR THE AREA. A PASSING
DISTURBANCE AND SOME LINGERING MSTR WL MEAN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MON WL LIKELY BE
A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. UPR RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED OVR THE AREA
FOR TUE AND WED...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS BOTH DAYS. THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED OVR THE
AREA ON THU AS AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BACKS INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS ON
THU...BRINGING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AN
INCREASE IN MSTR OVR THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVR THE MTNS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LOWER EAST
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTNS WHERE THE UPSLOPE WL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS A WEAK
UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE ROCKIES. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
UPR TROF...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM
BRINGING PCPN AND COOLER TEMPS TO MOST OF THE AREA THRU THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
AFTER A SHORT LULL THIS MORNING...WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WIND DOWN
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. FZG LEVELS WILL GENERALLY 7500-8000 FEET
TODAY...AND THE MTS WILL BECOME OBSCURED WITH SCT-NMRS SHOWERS.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN THE TAFS. ON
MON...STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA IN THE
MORNING BEFORE PRECIP SHIFTS EAST INTO KS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
904 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
ADJUSTED MOST POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...TO BETTER MATCH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
OUR CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH NM...AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY. SOME WEAK ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN RANGES...WHILE SCT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN PLAINS. SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW EXTENSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THIS
MORNING OVER OUR SERN CORNER...THE NAM HOLDS ON TO EXTENSIVE PRECIP
WHILE THE HRRR DRIES THINGS OUT PRETTY QUICKLY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO
BE A BIT TOO DRY WHILE THE NAM AND WRF MAY BE OVERDONE. WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS OVER PROWERS...BACA...AND ERN LAS ANIMAS THIS
MORNING...BUT AMTS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE.
SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY 6000-6500 FEET AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
7K FOOT RANGE TODAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AND H7 TEMPS
WILL FALL FROM AROUND MINUS 4 TO MINUS 8 OR SO BY MONDAY MORNING.
BUT...PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO LOW ELEVATION SNOW
POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT. OVER THE MTS...PERSISTENT SHSN
CONTINUE TODAY...AND WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY PEAKS. AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE
MORNING ZONE PACKAGE. ANOTHER TWO TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER PEAKS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME OVERNIGHT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME COLD
MORNING LOWS LATER TONIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
ON MONDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WL BE FOUND OVR THE AREA. A PASSING
DISTURBANCE AND SOME LINGERING MSTR WL MEAN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MON WL LIKELY BE
A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. UPR RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED OVR THE AREA
FOR TUE AND WED...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS BOTH DAYS. THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED OVR THE
AREA ON THU AS AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BACKS INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS ON
THU...BRINGING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AN
INCREASE IN MSTR OVR THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVR THE MTNS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LOWER EAST
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTNS WHERE THE UPSLOPE WL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS A WEAK
UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE ROCKIES. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
UPR TROF...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM
BRINGING PCPN AND COOLER TEMPS TO MOST OF THE AREA THRU THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MUCH OF SERN CO. AFTER
A SHORT LULL THIS MORNING...WILL SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY PICK UP AGAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THEN WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. FZG LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY 7500-8000 FEET TODAY...AND THE MTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OBSCD WITH SCT-NRMS SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS VC THE TAF
SITES TODAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES
IN THE TAFS. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE AT KALS...WHICH SAW
SOME LIGHT SHSN OVERNIGHT...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PC MORNING
FG OR BR FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
322 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
OUR CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH NM...AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY. SOME WEAK ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN RANGES...WHILE SCT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN PLAINS. SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW EXTENSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THIS
MORNING OVER OUR SERN CORNER...THE NAM HOLDS ON TO EXTENSIVE PRECIP
WHILE THE HRRR DRIES THINGS OUT PRETTY QUICKLY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO
BE A BIT TOO DRY WHILE THE NAM AND WRF MAY BE OVERDONE. WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS OVER PROWERS...BACA...AND ERN LAS ANIMAS THIS
MORNING...BUT AMTS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE.
SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY 6000-6500 FEET AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
7K FOOT RANGE TODAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AND H7 TEMPS
WILL FALL FROM AROUND MINUS 4 TO MINUS 8 OR SO BY MONDAY MORNING.
BUT...PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO LOW ELEVATION SNOW
POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT. OVER THE MTS...PERSISTENT SHSN
CONTINUE TODAY...AND WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY PEAKS. AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE
MORNING ZONE PACKAGE. ANOTHER TWO TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER PEAKS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME OVERNIGHT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME COLD
MORNING LOWS LATER TONIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
ON MONDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WL BE FOUND OVR THE AREA. A PASSING
DISTURBANCE AND SOME LINGERING MSTR WL MEAN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MON WL LIKELY BE
A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. UPR RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED OVR THE AREA
FOR TUE AND WED...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS BOTH DAYS. THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED OVR THE
AREA ON THU AS AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BACKS INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS ON
THU...BRINGING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AN
INCREASE IN MSTR OVR THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVR THE MTNS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LOWER EAST
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTNS WHERE THE UPSLOPE WL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS A WEAK
UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE ROCKIES. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
UPR TROF...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM
BRINGING PCPN AND COOLER TEMPS TO MOST OF THE AREA THRU THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MUCH OF SERN CO. AFTER
A SHORT LULL THIS MORNING...WILL SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY PICK UP AGAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THEN WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. FZG LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY 7500-8000 FEET TODAY...AND THE MTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OBSCD WITH SCT-NRMS SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS VC THE TAF
SITES TODAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES
IN THE TAFS. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE AT KALS...WHICH SAW
SOME LIGHT SHSN OVERNIGHT...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PC MORNING
FG OR BR FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
951 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...A STEADY
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH STEADY RAIN WILL END BY
TOMORROW MORNING...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN...ALONG WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ALSO RETURNING BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT... RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IMPACT AREAS AROUND
THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION AS THE RAINFALL AHEAD OF A NORTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...THE UPPER LEVELS SHOW A NARROW DRY
SLOT MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THAT WILL TEMPORARILY PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE REGION. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER
06Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES BASED OFF OF 9 PM OBSERVATIONS HAVE TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS AS SHALLOW COLD
AIR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES BASED OFF OF THESE
TRENDS...HOWEVER AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO RISE INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO GUST NEAR 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS WE GO INTO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...NO HEADLINES FOR WINDS BUT DID
INCREASE GUST POTENTIAL INTO THESE AREAS.
PREV DISC...
AS OF 426 PM EDT...A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS IN PROGRESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST
REGION. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED NEAR LOUISVILLE
KENTUCKY...AND WAS CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WARM FRONT
WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WARM FRONT WAS
MOVING NORTHWARD...AS DEPICTED BY THE 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS OF
NEARLY 7 MB OVER THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NY. ANOTHER ORGANIZED
AREA OF RAINFALL WAS NEAR THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT...AIDED BY A
COASTAL FRONT...ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH OF THESE
AREAS OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS A RESULT...LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA BY
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL ACROSS BOTH THE
NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CORNERS OF THE AREA DUE TO TWO
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF RAINFALL. WHILE EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO
SEE SOME RAIN TONIGHT...THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...AND BERKSHIRES. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO
DISCUSSION ON HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR HSA. THE
17Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL BEFORE 2 AM...BEFORE IT
STARTS TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE.
ANOTHER COMPONENT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE OUT OF THE S-SE
AND RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES. THERE ARE SOME STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SURFACE...AS BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW 925 HPA WINDS OF 35-55 KTS
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM. WHILE IT
WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO MIX THESE DOWN CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL...ELEVATED AREAS...SUCH AS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE BETWEEN THE SRN GREENS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...WHERE E-SE FLOW HAS BEEN KNOWN TO CHANNEL
EASILY AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. AT THIS POINT...THERE STILL IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT/COVERAGE OF ANY STRONG
WINDS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY OR HIGH WIND WARNING...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN OUR HWO STATEMENT...AND HAVE COVERED FOR WIND GUSTS
OF 35-40 MPH IN OUR CURRENT FORECAST.
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE NEARING OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST. WE PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE STORM/S
WARM SECTOR AS THE TRIPLE POINT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. STILL...SHOWALTER
VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO...SO AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DUE TO SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE EVENING...AS
TEMPS WET BULB DUE TO THE RAINFALL...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY
WITH A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A
W-SW DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE SFC LOW PASSES
NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. DESPITE BEING
BEHIND THE STORM...COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE MILD ON TUESDAY. TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS TO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND...ESP FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS OF SUN LOOK POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...ALTHOUGH THESE
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.
THE GOOD MIXING /TO ABOUT 800-850 HPA BASED ON THE LATEST 12Z
GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/ WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS...ESP FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. WINDS MAY GUST 25-35 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY STILL
BE RATHER BRISK. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT VALLEY AREAS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S.
ASIDE FROM A MORNING SNOW/RAIN SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...IT LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS FROM
THE PLAINS. IT STILL MAY BE A LITTLE BREEZY DURING DAYTIME MIXING
ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...TEMPS ALOFT
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY /850 HPA TEMPS AROUND -4 TO
-8 DEGREES C/...SO MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 50S
OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
TEMPS ON WED NIGHT...WITH 20S EVERYWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING MOST OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...THE
WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AND REMAIN ALONG OR JUST
NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THE RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL
BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRAILING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIGRATING EASTWARD. DUE
TO THE UPPER JET CURVATURE...SEEMS MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT DOES
OCCUR WILL BE POST-FRONTAL WHILE THE MAIN SUPPORT BECOMES FURTHER
REMOVED. WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT VALUES AND BLEND THE
LATEST MOS VALUES FROM THE ECMWF/GFS.
FRIDAY...
THERE IS A TENDENCY FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EITHER A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY /AS
SUGGESTED BY THE THE GFS/ OR A MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AS SUGGESTED
BY THE ECMWF/GGEM WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DRY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SCENARIO FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE THAT A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION AS A POTENT WAVES DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE NET RESULT WOULD
BE TO SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF SURFACE FEATURES AND ALLOW
WARM ADVECTION TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. AS H850
TEMPS CLIMB TOWARD +10C AND STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WELL INTO THE 40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LLWS AS LATEST HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
AT OR ABOVE 2K FEET THOSE WIND MAGNITUDES INCREASE TO BETWEEN
40-50KTS. SO WE WILL EXPAND THE LLWS FORECAST TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BOTH
VISIBILITY AND CIGS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY AS DRY SLOT BECOMES WELL
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT REMAINS UPSTREAM AS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT THE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME
SEEM A BIT LOW...HENCE THE PROB30 FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR JUST ABOVE 10KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO
SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
RH VALUES WILL BE BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TO THE REGION. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MANY HIGH TERRAIN AREAS CONTINUE TO
HAVE A SNOW PACK IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE HIGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT BEHIND THE STORM FOR TOMORROW.
RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. S-SE WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT..ESP ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM...W-NW WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG DURING DAYTIME MIXING
TOMORROW AFTN...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS THAT
CHANNEL WESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE BE GUSTY DURING DAYTIME
MIXING ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DURING THE TIME WHEN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WITHIN THESE AREAS...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER LOOK
TO OCCUR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...BASIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO MELT OUT OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF...RESULTING IN SHARP RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS. WITH THE STEADY RAINFALL LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS LIKELY...WITH SOME MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE OR URBAN AREAS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE NERFC CURRENTLY SHOWS SEVERAL RIVERS COMING CLOSE TO BANKFULL BY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IF MORE RAINFALL THAN
ANTICIPATED OCCURS OR IF MORE SNOWMELT HAPPENS...THIS COULD RESULT
IN MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS...SUCH AS THE SACANDAGA RIVER IN
THE ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE HOOSIC...METTAWEE...AND
HOUSATONIC RIVERS. IN ADDITION...SOME RESERVOIRS AND LAKE WILL BE
FILLING UP...AND MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE MID WEEK PERIOD
AT DELTA RESERVOIR ON THE FAR UPPER MOHAWK RIVER.
ALTHOUGH MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE FREE OF ICE...THERE ARE SOME
RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THAT ARE STILL ICE
COVERED. WITH RISING LEVELS DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT...THIS
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED ICE JAM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
RIVERS SHOULD START TO RECEDE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN THE THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
827 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...A STEADY
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH STEADY RAIN WILL END BY
TOMORROW MORNING...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN...ALONG WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ALSO RETURNING BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT...
RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. HOWEVER...SEEMS THE DRIER AIR IS WINNING OUT BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH RADAR IMAGERY NOW REVEALING A BIT MORE
SHOWERY SO IT SEEMS THIS MAY BE A QUICKER EVENT UNFOLDING. DUE TO
THE QUICK NATURE...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WINDS ALOFT AND ITS
IMPACTS INTO THE BERKS AND TACONICS. FOR NOW...NO HEADLINES FOR
WINDS BUT DID INCREASE GUST POTENTIAL INTO THESE AREAS.
PREV DISC...
AS OF 426 PM EDT...A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS IN PROGRESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST
REGION. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED NEAR LOUISVILLE
KENTUCKY...AND WAS CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WARM FRONT
WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WARM FRONT WAS
MOVING NORTHWARD...AS DEPICTED BY THE 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS OF
NEARLY 7 MB OVER THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NY. ANOTHER ORGANIZED
AREA OF RAINFALL WAS NEAR THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT...AIDED BY A
COASTAL FRONT...ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH OF THESE
AREAS OF RAINFALL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS A RESULT...LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA BY
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL ACROSS BOTH THE
NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CORNERS OF THE AREA DUE TO TWO
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF RAINFALL. WHILE EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED TO
SEE SOME RAIN TONIGHT...THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...AND BERKSHIRES. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO
DISCUSSION ON HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR HSA. THE
17Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL BEFORE 2 AM...BEFORE IT
STARTS TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE.
ANOTHER COMPONENT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE OUT OF THE S-SE
AND RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES. THERE ARE SOME STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF
THE SURFACE...AS BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW 925 HPA WINDS OF 35-55 KTS
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM. WHILE IT
WILL PROBABLY BE TOUGH TO MIX THESE DOWN CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL...ELEVATED AREAS...SUCH AS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE BETWEEN THE SRN GREENS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...WHERE E-SE FLOW HAS BEEN KNOWN TO CHANNEL
EASILY AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. AT THIS POINT...THERE STILL IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT/COVERAGE OF ANY STRONG
WINDS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY OR HIGH WIND WARNING...BUT WE WILL
MENTION IT IN OUR HWO STATEMENT...AND HAVE COVERED FOR WIND GUSTS
OF 35-40 MPH IN OUR CURRENT FORECAST.
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE NEARING OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST. WE PROBABLY WON/T MAKE IT INTO THE STORM/S
WARM SECTOR AS THE TRIPLE POINT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. STILL...SHOWALTER
VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO ZERO...SO AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DUE TO SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE LATE EVENING...AS
TEMPS WET BULB DUE TO THE RAINFALL...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
RISE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY
WITH A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A
W-SW DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE SFC LOW PASSES
NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. DESPITE BEING
BEHIND THE STORM...COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE MILD ON TUESDAY. TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS TO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND...ESP FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS OF SUN LOOK POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...ALTHOUGH THESE
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.
THE GOOD MIXING /TO ABOUT 800-850 HPA BASED ON THE LATEST 12Z
GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/ WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS...ESP FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. WINDS MAY GUST 25-35 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY STILL
BE RATHER BRISK. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY...WITH THE MOST CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT VALLEY AREAS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S.
ASIDE FROM A MORNING SNOW/RAIN SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...IT LOOKS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS FROM
THE PLAINS. IT STILL MAY BE A LITTLE BREEZY DURING DAYTIME MIXING
ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...TEMPS ALOFT
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY /850 HPA TEMPS AROUND -4 TO
-8 DEGREES C/...SO MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 50S
OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL
TEMPS ON WED NIGHT...WITH 20S EVERYWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING MOST OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...THE
WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AND REMAIN ALONG OR JUST
NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THE RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL
BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRAILING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIGRATING EASTWARD. DUE
TO THE UPPER JET CURVATURE...SEEMS MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT DOES
OCCUR WILL BE POST-FRONTAL WHILE THE MAIN SUPPORT BECOMES FURTHER
REMOVED. WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT VALUES AND BLEND THE
LATEST MOS VALUES FROM THE ECMWF/GFS.
FRIDAY...
THERE IS A TENDENCY FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EITHER A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY /AS
SUGGESTED BY THE THE GFS/ OR A MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AS SUGGESTED
BY THE ECMWF/GGEM WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DRY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SCENARIO FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE THAT A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION AS A POTENT WAVES DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE NET RESULT WOULD
BE TO SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF SURFACE FEATURES AND ALLOW
WARM ADVECTION TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. AS H850
TEMPS CLIMB TOWARD +10C AND STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WELL INTO THE 40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LLWS AS LATEST HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
AT OR ABOVE 2K FEET THOSE WIND MAGNITUDES INCREASE TO BETWEEN
40-50KTS. SO WE WILL EXPAND THE LLWS FORECAST TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BOTH
VISIBILITY AND CIGS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY AS DRY SLOT BECOMES WELL
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT REMAINS UPSTREAM AS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BUT THE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME
SEEM A BIT LOW...HENCE THE PROB30 FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR JUST ABOVE 10KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO
SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
RH VALUES WILL BE BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TO THE REGION. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MANY HIGH TERRAIN AREAS CONTINUE TO
HAVE A SNOW PACK IN PLACE.
ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE HIGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT BEHIND THE STORM FOR TOMORROW.
RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. S-SE WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT..ESP ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM...W-NW WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG DURING DAYTIME MIXING
TOMORROW AFTN...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS THAT
CHANNEL WESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE BE GUSTY DURING DAYTIME
MIXING ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DURING THE TIME WHEN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WITHIN THESE AREAS...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER LOOK
TO OCCUR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...BASIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO MELT OUT OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF...RESULTING IN SHARP RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS. WITH THE STEADY RAINFALL LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS LIKELY...WITH SOME MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE OR URBAN AREAS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE NERFC CURRENTLY SHOWS SEVERAL RIVERS COMING CLOSE TO BANKFULL BY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IF MORE RAINFALL THAN
ANTICIPATED OCCURS OR IF MORE SNOWMELT HAPPENS...THIS COULD RESULT
IN MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS...SUCH AS THE SACANDAGA RIVER IN
THE ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE HOOSIC...METTAWEE...AND
HOUSATONIC RIVERS. IN ADDITION...SOME RESERVOIRS AND LAKE WILL BE
FILLING UP...AND MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THE MID WEEK PERIOD
AT DELTA RESERVOIR ON THE FAR UPPER MOHAWK RIVER.
ALTHOUGH MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE FREE OF ICE...THERE ARE SOME
RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THAT ARE STILL ICE
COVERED. WITH RISING LEVELS DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT...THIS
COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED ICE JAM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
RIVERS SHOULD START TO RECEDE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN THE THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
EASTERN CANADA ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN STALL
ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS IT ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOOKING AT THE MODELS PREDICTED FIELDS VS OBSERVATIONS THRU 00Z,
THE ECMWF QPF WI OUR CWA VERIFIED THE CLOSEST, GFS NOT THAT FAR
BEHIND. WOULD PLACE THE CANADIANS IN THE MIDDLE AND NAM LAST.
LOOKING FORWARD, ALL THE MODELS HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE OF THE
INSTABILITY POCKET OVER WRN PA NEAR THE TROF, BUT ARE OVERDOING
THE PREDICTED CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. IF
ANYTHING, THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN SWEPT OFFSHORE. THE MODELS
CONGEAL THESE TWO AREAS OVER US OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY BE OVERDONE.
THE LATEST RAP CONTINUES THIS IDEA, BUT LIKE THE MORE SUBDUED LOOK
OF THE LAST HRRR AND ITS SFC BASED L.I. ARE ABOUT 1 TO 2C TOO
UNSTABLE. WE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO HAVE THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY
FOG AND THE DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WE NARROWED THE WINDOW
OF THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT.
A WAVE ON THE WARM FRONT HAS NUDGED INTO DELMARVA, BUT THINK AT
THIS POINT ITS GOING TO MEET PLENTY OF CHILLY RAIN COOLED AIR
RESISTANCE AND DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. TEMPS
WERE NUDGED UPWARD WELL SOUTH, THE REST HAVE REMAINED CLOSE TO
SCHEDULE, NON-DIURNAL AND JUST HOLDING IN PLACE.
A SHARPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO ABOUT 1.0
AND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM FRONT DOES NOT LIFT NORTH OF OUR
ENTIRE AREA AS AN OCCLUSION TAKES PLACE AND RAIN COOLED AIR MAY HANG
ON NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE ESPECIALLY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WARMER AIRMASS TO ADVECT IN ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT
INTERSTATE 95 ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THIS IS A
FORECAST CHALLENGE, AND WE HELD TEMPERATURES EITHER NEARLY STEADY OR
EVEN SHOWED SOME RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE DID NOT GO AS ROBUST AS
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS WITH RESPECT TO THE WARMING DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE.
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS
EVENING, PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN AS THE WAA AND LOW-LEVEL JET
PROVIDE PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE RAIN COULD BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT, HOWEVER THE OVERALL SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH. DESPITE THE HIGH PW VALUES ANY FLOODING SHOULD
BE MINOR AND LOCALIZED. THEREFORE. NO FLOOD WATCH ATTM. WE SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SHOWERY REGIME OVERNIGHT AS THE INITIAL
LOW-LEVEL INDUCED OVERRUNNING STARTS TO SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
SOME INSTABILITY MAY ARRIVE. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEARS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE OCCLUSION, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER,
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE THUNDER POTENTIAL MAY END UP HAVING THE
BEST SHOT WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE SHEAR, THE
LOWER INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUB-SEVERE /SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH/. THE SOUNDINGS OVERALL SUGGEST THAT
ANY THUNDER WOULD BE ELEVATED, THEREFORE NO ENHANCED WORDING IS
BEING CARRIED.
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY STRENGTH SOME
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER IF THIS REMAINS ON THE LOW ENOUGH SIDE THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE.
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT BASED
ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES TO START TONIGHT, THEN A NON-DIURNAL WAS
USED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA IN THE
MORNING, WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY OFFSHORE.
THEREFORE, ANY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENDING BY LATE MORNING.
THE ENTIRE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HOWEVER HANGS BACK TO THE WEST AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS MAY END UP SLOWING THE EASTWARD MOTION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL
TO IT, HOWEVER THE LATEST THINKING IS THE SHOWERS CLEAR THE COAST BY
LATE MORNING. THE HANGING BACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO
DELAY THE COOLING ALOFT ARRIVING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEAM UP WITH DEEPER MIXING, ALLOWING FOR A
BREEZY DAY. SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
WEST DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH, SOME
CLOUDINESS MAY HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS DECENT DRY AIR
ADVECTION, HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING ON MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED BY
MIDDAY.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND OVERALL BUT
DID MAKE SOME LOCAL TWEAKS
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH BEHIND A CFP AND BE THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DRY WX AND WITH
NWLY FLOW WED BECOMING W AND SWLY FLOW AT THE SFC THU AND FRI,
TEMPS SHUD BE ABV NRML BY THU AND FRI WITH MANY AREAS FLIRTING
WITH 70 DEGREES.
BY FRI, A CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT IS SLOW MOVG
AND AT LEAST SOME GUID INDICATES THAT A WAVE COULD FORM ON IT AS
WELL INTO SAT. SO THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE FRI NIGHT INTO ERLY
SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF SAT SHOULD MARK A RETURN TO DRY WX AND
THEN HIGH PRES MOVES IN FOR SUN.
ANOTHER MORE POTENT LOW AND CDFNT WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE PLAINS AND
APPROACH ON MON. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THIS SYS THAN THE
ECMWF, WHICH IS NOT A SURPRISE, BUT FOR NOW, AT THIS TIME SCALE
WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AOA NRML THRU THE PD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES MVFR/IFR. THE
VISIBILITIES WILL MAINLY DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WHICH IS ANTICIPATED AT TIMES. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
HOWEVER SINCE THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO NOT BE WIDESPREAD IT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOTS AT 2,000 FEET IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH EVEN ABOUT 60 KNOTS AT AND ABOVE 3,000
FEET. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKS TO MAINLY BE EAST OF
KABE AND KRDG, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS NOT CARRIED HERE.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE. IT IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR
THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST, THE WINDS TURN GUSTY AT THE
SURFACE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...SUB-VFR EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO VFR BY MID
MORNING AS ANY SHOWERS QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...GENERALLY VFR. BREEZY NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THU..VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY, BUT MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
WITH -SHRA DURING THE DAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE
DURING FRI OR FRI NIGHT, BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO NW. THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFS WRT THE CFP. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDING STORM SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND NORTH ON TUESDAY. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAA OCCURRING OVER THE
COLDER WATERS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN ABOVE THIS INVERSION, AND THEREFORE THE CHC FOR SOME GALES
FORCE GUSTS APPEARS TO BE LOW. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS,
HOWEVER WE DID SLOW THE BUILDING OF THEM THROUGH THIS EVENING SOME
GIVEN A SLOWER START SO FAR.
FOR TUESDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE
MORNING BUT MAY SLOW AS IT JUST SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THE WINDS WILL
THEREFORE SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. DESPITE
ENOUGH WIND ABOVE THE SURFACE, THERE APPEARS TO BE MUCH BETTER
MIXING OVER LAND GIVEN A WARMER BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP
THE STRONGER GUSTINESS NEARSHORE. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT EXTEND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY. THIS CAN BE
RE-EXAMINED AGAIN TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE, THE SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE. EXPECT TO BE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY DURG THE EVE HOURS IF NOT BEFORE.
WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
THU AND FRI...SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY THU AND COULD BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA BY THU EVE. SCA
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS FRI EVE, BRINGING SHIFT TO NW
WIND.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG/PO
MARINE...GORSE/NIERENBERG/PO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
EASTERN CANADA ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN STALL
ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS IT ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOOKING AT THE MODELS PREDICTED FIELDS VS OBSERVATIONS THRU 00Z,
THE ECMWF QPF WI OUR CWA VERIFIED THE CLOSEST, GFS NOT THAT FAR
BEHIND. WOULD PLACE THE CANADIANS IN THE MIDDLE AND NAM LAST.
LOOKING FORWARD, ALL THE MODELS HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE OF THE
INSTABILITY POCKET OVER WRN PA NEAR THE TROF, BUT ARE OVERDOING
THE PREDICTED CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. IF
ANYTHING, THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN SWEPT OFFSHORE. THE MODELS
CONGEAL THESE TWO AREAS OVER US OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY BE OVERDONE.
THE LATEST RAP CONTINUES THIS IDEA, BUT LIKE THE MORE SUBDUED LOOK
OF THE LAST HRRR AND ITS SFC BASED L.I. ARE ABOUT 1 TO 2C TOO
UNSTABLE. WE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO HAVE THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY
FOG AND THE DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WE NARROWED THE WINDOW
OF THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT.
A WAVE ON THE WARM FRONT HAS NUDGED INTO DELMARVA, BUT THINK AT
THIS POINT ITS GOING TO MEET PLENTY OF CHILLY RAIN COOLED AIR
RESISTANCE AND DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. TEMPS
WERE NUDGED UPWARD WELL SOUTH, THE REST HAVE REMAINED CLOSE TO
SCHEDULE, NON-DIURNAL AND JUST HOLDING IN PLACE.
A SHARPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT DEEP
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO ABOUT 1.0
AND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM FRONT DOES NOT LIFT NORTH OF OUR
ENTIRE AREA AS AN OCCLUSION TAKES PLACE AND RAIN COOLED AIR MAY HANG
ON NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE ESPECIALLY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WARMER AIRMASS TO ADVECT IN ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT
INTERSTATE 95 ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THIS IS A
FORECAST CHALLENGE, AND WE HELD TEMPERATURES EITHER NEARLY STEADY OR
EVEN SHOWED SOME RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE DID NOT GO AS ROBUST AS
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS WITH RESPECT TO THE WARMING DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE.
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS
EVENING, PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN AS THE WAA AND LOW-LEVEL JET
PROVIDE PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE RAIN COULD BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT, HOWEVER THE OVERALL SYSTEM LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH. DESPITE THE HIGH PW VALUES ANY FLOODING SHOULD
BE MINOR AND LOCALIZED. THEREFORE. NO FLOOD WATCH ATTM. WE SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SHOWERY REGIME OVERNIGHT AS THE INITIAL
LOW-LEVEL INDUCED OVERRUNNING STARTS TO SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
SOME INSTABILITY MAY ARRIVE. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEARS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE OCCLUSION, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER,
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE THUNDER POTENTIAL MAY END UP HAVING THE
BEST SHOT WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE SHEAR, THE
LOWER INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUB-SEVERE /SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH/. THE SOUNDINGS OVERALL SUGGEST THAT
ANY THUNDER WOULD BE ELEVATED, THEREFORE NO ENHANCED WORDING IS
BEING CARRIED.
THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY STRENGTH SOME
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER IF THIS REMAINS ON THE LOW ENOUGH SIDE THEN THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE.
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT BASED
ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES TO START TONIGHT, THEN A NON-DIURNAL WAS
USED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA IN THE
MORNING, WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY OFFSHORE.
THEREFORE, ANY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ENDING BY LATE MORNING.
THE ENTIRE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HOWEVER HANGS BACK TO THE WEST AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS MAY END UP SLOWING THE EASTWARD MOTION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL
TO IT, HOWEVER THE LATEST THINKING IS THE SHOWERS CLEAR THE COAST BY
LATE MORNING. THE HANGING BACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO
DELAY THE COOLING ALOFT ARRIVING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEAM UP WITH DEEPER MIXING, ALLOWING FOR A
BREEZY DAY. SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
WEST DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH, SOME
CLOUDINESS MAY HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS DECENT DRY AIR
ADVECTION, HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING ON MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED BY
MIDDAY.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND OVERALL BUT
DID MAKE SOME LOCAL TWEAKS
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH BEHIND A CFP AND BE THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DRY WX AND WITH
NWLY FLOW WED BECOMING W AND SWLY FLOW AT THE SFC THU AND FRI,
TEMPS SHUD BE ABV NRML BY THU AND FRI WITH MANY AREAS FLIRTING
WITH 70 DEGREES.
BY FRI, A CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT IS SLOW MOVG
AND AT LEAST SOME GUID INDICATES THAT A WAVE COULD FORM ON IT AS
WELL INTO SAT. SO THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE FRI NIGHT INTO ERLY
SAT. THE SECOND HALF OF SAT SHOULD MARK A RETURN TO DRY WX AND
THEN HIGH PRES MOVES IN FOR SUN.
ANOTHER MORE POTENT LOW AND CDFNT WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE PLAINS AND
APPROACH ON MON. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THIS SYS THAN THE
ECMWF, WHICH IS NOT A SURPRISE, BUT FOR NOW, AT THIS TIME SCALE
WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE AOA NRML THRU THE PD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH, WITH EVEN SOME IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. PERIODS
OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR, HOWEVER SOME MODERATE RAIN MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE, WITH SOME GUSTINESS AT TIMES. ANY ISOLATED
THUNDER THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS /POSSIBLY LIFR/ WITH VISIBILITIES MVFR/IFR.
THE VISIBILITIES WILL MAINLY DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN AS
SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED AT TIMES. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED ESPECIALLY FROM LATER THIS EVENING ONWARD
AND WITH THE COLD FRONT, HOWEVER SINCE THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO NOT BE
WIDESPREAD IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOTS AT 2,000 FEET IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH EVEN ABOUT 60 KNOTS AT AND ABOVE 3,000
FEET. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKS TO MAINLY BE EAST OF
KABE AND KRDG, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS NOT CARRIED HERE.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE. IT IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR
THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST, THE WINDS TURN GUSTY AT THE
SURFACE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...SUB-VFR EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO VFR BY MID
MORNING AS ANY SHOWERS QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH A COLD FRONT. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...GENERALLY VFR. BREEZY NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THU..VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY, BUT MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
WITH -SHRA DURING THE DAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE
DURING FRI OR FRI NIGHT, BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO NW. THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFS WRT THE CFP. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDING STORM SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND NORTH ON TUESDAY. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAA OCCURRING OVER THE
COLDER WATERS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN ABOVE THIS INVERSION, AND THEREFORE THE CHC FOR SOME GALES
FORCE GUSTS APPEARS TO BE LOW. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS,
HOWEVER WE DID SLOW THE BUILDING OF THEM THROUGH THIS EVENING SOME
GIVEN A SLOWER START SO FAR.
FOR TUESDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE
MORNING BUT MAY SLOW AS IT JUST SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THE WINDS WILL
THEREFORE SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. DESPITE
ENOUGH WIND ABOVE THE SURFACE, THERE APPEARS TO BE MUCH BETTER
MIXING OVER LAND GIVEN A WARMER BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP
THE STRONGER GUSTINESS NEARSHORE. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT EXTEND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY. THIS CAN BE
RE-EXAMINED AGAIN TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE, THE SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE. EXPECT TO BE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA BY DURG THE EVE HOURS IF NOT BEFORE.
WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.
THU AND FRI...SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY THU AND COULD BE ABOVE SCA CRITERIA BY THU EVE. SCA
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS FRI EVE, BRINGING SHIFT TO NW
WIND.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
440 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY...
...INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
TODAY...A WEAK MID LVL DISTURBANCE AT 500 MBS WILL PASS OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER LIFTING SLOWLY NWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NRN SECTIONS TODAY BUT SOME THINNING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH RECOVERING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES SHOULD ALLOW SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER SOUTH...LESS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S COASTAL COUNTIES AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NRN AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS AT
925 MBS LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING S WINDS TO STAY UP IN THE 5-10 MPH
RANGE. OVERALL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE H8-H5 LAYER PREFRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MON-TUE...THE SRN BRANCH OF THE H30-H20 JET STREAM HAS EXPANDED ACRS
THE NA CONTINENT WITH THE 100KT ISOTACH EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE
HATTERAS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH A 120KT CORE EXTENDING FROM
THE LWR MS VALLEY TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THIS JET IS POSITIONED OVER A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE NRN
GULF COAST AND WILL INDUCE A NEW STORM SYSTEM OUT OF A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRES OVER W TX.
THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A 100KT
NRN STREAM JET DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW...FORCING THE SRN STREAM TO
SHIFT OF A LIFTING ORIENTATION BY DAYBREAK MON BEFORE STRENGTHENING
TO A 140-150KT CORE BY DAYBREAK TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STORM
SYSTEM LIFT RAPIDLY NE WHILE DVLPG INTO A RATHER POTENT 980MB LOW AS
IT PASSES OVER NEW ENGLAND EN ROUTE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TUE NIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH
THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE THRU CENTRAL FL MON NIGHT
THRU TUE. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NRN STREAM JET HAS PLENTY OF
UPSTREAM ENERGY LEFT TO FEED INTO THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN...CAN SEE
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE PRESENT FCST REASONING AS RESULTING
W/NWRLY FLOW BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHUNT A
LATE SEASON COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL FL BY BY SUNSET TUE. MID/UPR LVL
DYNAMIC HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH A GOOD
UPR LVL DIVERGENCE COUPLET COINCIDENT WITH MID LVL OMEGA LIFT...
WITH A TRAILING MID VORT MAX INDICATING SUSTAINED MID LVL SUPPORT.
WX WILL BE DRY TO START AFT SUNRISE MON AS SUBSTANTIAL MID LVL DRY
AIR REMAIN IN PLACE. ALSO...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DENSE
FIELD OF MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PRECEDE THE FROPA THAT WILL
HAMPER SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT
APPEARS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP CHC/SLGT CHC OF AFTN POPS IN THE
FCST AFT 18Z MON.
PRECIP CHANCES BCMG LIKELY AREAWIDE BTWN 00Z TUE AND 00Z WED WITH
INTENSITY OF AND CONVECTION REMAINING THE BIG QUESTION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INCREASE PWAT VALUES AT KMCO TO ARND 1.7" BY 06Z TUE WITH
0-3KM HELICITY INCREASING TO BTWN 300-350 M2/S2...CAPE VALUES
CLIMBING OVER 2000 J/KG...ARND 1500...ACCOMPANIED BY 45KT-50KT SW
WINDS THRU THE H95-H70 LYR BY DAYBREAK TUE. GFS/ECMWF TIMING FOR THE
SQUALL LINE IT PRETTY CLOSE...PUSHING IT THRU CENTRAL FL BTWN 12Z
TUE AND 00Z WED. A DISTINCT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR WX REMAINS
IN PLAY. HODOGRAPHS INDICATE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...THOUGH THE INCREASING HELICITY SUGGESTS ROTATING STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. H50 TEMPS ARND -8C INDICATES LARGE HAIL THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.
THE PERSISTENT S/SWRLY FLOW WILL PUSH MON AFTN TEMPS INTO THE M80S
ALONG THE COAST AND U80S/L90S INTERIOR WHILE HOLDING OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS IN THE U60S/L70S INTERIOR...L/M70S ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU...RAIN COOLED AIR AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TUE MAX/MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S ALONG AND N
OF I-4...L/M80S TO THE S. POST FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION TUE NIGHT
WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE L/M50S ALONG AND N OF I-4...U50S/L60S ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST.
WED-SAT...
SEASONABLE WX CONDITIONS THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
STRONG POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACRS THE GOMEX AND INTO THE
W ATLC. POST FRONTAL COOL DOWN WILL BE LIMITED TO WED WITH MAX TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE L/M70S N OF I-4...HOLDING IN THE M/U70S TO THE S...
MIN TEMPS HOLDING IN THE L/M50S OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT U50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.
THE COOL AIRMASS WILL MODIFY THRU LATE WEEK AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DVLP. MAX/MIN TEMPS ON THU
WILL RECOVER TO WITHIN 5F OF CLIMO AVG (U70S/L80S AND U50S/L60S
RESPECTIVELY) AND HOLD STEADY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. EXTENDED MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLD COASTAL SHRAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE
DEEPENING ERLY FLOW...BUT THESE WOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AND WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH 07/06Z. A SMALL AFTERNOON SHOWER CHC
AT KDAB AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AFT 19Z. UPPER LVL CIRRUS WILL AFFECT
NRN TERMINALS INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...S WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME SSE/SE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT LATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
MON-MON NIGHT...STORM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RIDE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE THE
ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE...SUPPRESSING IT INTO THE FL STRAITS.
INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE TO FRESH
SRLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY...BCMG FRESH TO STRONG AFT MIDNIGHT MON
INTO TUE AS A SQUALL LINE PRESSES INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG SWRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL AS THE
SQUALL LINE PRESSES THRU CENTRAL FL. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICKUP OUT OF THE W/NW
AFT SUNSET AS A POST FRONTAL WIND SURGE BOOSTS SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO
THE 20-25KT RANGE. THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAVE THE LCL
ATLC FETCH PROTECTED...LIMITING SEAS TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT
OFFSHORE. EVEN SO...THESE WILL CONSIST OF ROUGH SHORT PD WIND WAVES
THAT WILL MAKE LOCAL BOATING CONDITIONS QUITE HAZARDOUS.
WED-NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE DAY AS A
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH. EVEN SO...
OVERALL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THRU LATE AFTN AS
WINDS SPIN DOWN...DIMINISHING TO 10-15KTS BY SUNSET WHILE VEERING
THRU DUE N. THE OPPOSING WIND/GULFSTREAM DIRECTIONS WILL MAINTAIN
ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SEAS 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT
OFFSHORE TO START THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
THU-THU NIGHT...HI PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE W ATLC AND GENERATE A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE THRU THE DAY...VEERING TO DUE E BY
SUNSET AND CONTG OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RHS AROUND 40 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A SE WIND DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. DRIER AIR AND
CRITICAL MIN RH LEVELS EXPECTED BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 66 84 69 / 20 10 40 60
MCO 87 66 88 69 / 10 10 40 60
MLB 84 68 84 72 / 10 10 20 50
VRB 84 67 84 73 / 10 10 20 40
LEE 85 67 87 69 / 10 10 40 60
SFB 87 67 87 70 / 10 10 40 60
ORL 87 68 87 71 / 10 10 40 60
FPR 83 68 84 74 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
420 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY...
...INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
TODAY...A WEAK MID LVL DISTURBANCE AT 500 MBS WILL PASS OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER LIFTING SLOWLY NWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NRN SECTIONS TODAY BUT SOME THINNING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH RECOVERING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES SHOULD ALLOW SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER SOUTH...LESS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S COASTAL COUNTIES AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NRN AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS AT
925 MBS LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING S WINDS TO STAY UP IN THE 5-10 MPH
RANGE. OVERALL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE H8-H5 LAYER PREFRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MON-TUE...THE SRN BRANCH OF THE H30-H20 JET STREAM HAS EXPANDED ACRS
THE NA CONTINENT WITH THE 100KT ISOTACH EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE
HATTERAS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH A 120KT CORE EXTENDING FROM
THE LWR MS VALLEY TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THIS JET IS POSITIONED OVER A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE NRN
GULF COAST AND WILL INDUCE A NEW STORM SYSTEM OUT OF A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRES OVER W TX.
THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A 100KT
NRN STREAM JET DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW...FORCING THE SRN STREAM TO
SHIFT OF A LIFTING ORIENTATION BY DAYBREAK MON BEFORE STRENGTHENING
TO A 140-150KT CORE BY DAYBREAK TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STORM
SYSTEM LIFT RAPIDLY NE WHILE DVLPG INTO A RATHER POTENT 980MB LOW AS
IT PASSES OVER NEW ENGLAND EN ROUTE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TUE NIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH
THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE THRU CENTRAL FL MON NIGHT
THRU TUE. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NRN STREAM JET HAS PLENTY OF
UPSTREAM ENERGY LEFT TO FEED INTO THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN...CAN SEE
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE PRESENT FCST REASONING AS RESULTING
W/NWRLY FLOW BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHUNT A
LATE SEASON COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL FL BY BY SUNSET TUE. MID/UPR LVL
DYNAMIC HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH A GOOD
UPR LVL DIVERGENCE COUPLET COINCIDENT WITH MID LVL OMEGA LIFT...
WITH A TRAILING MID VORT MAX INDICATING SUSTAINED MID LVL SUPPORT.
WX WILL BE DRY TO START AFT SUNRISE MON AS SUBSTANTIAL MID LVL DRY
AIR REMAIN IN PLACE. ALSO...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DENSE
FIELD OF MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PRECEDE THE FROPA THAT WILL
HAMPER SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT
APPEARS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP CHC/SLGT CHC OF AFTN POPS IN THE
FCST AFT 18Z MON.
PRECIP CHANCES BCMG LIKELY AREAWIDE BTWN 00Z TUE AND 00Z WED WITH
INTENSITY OF AND CONVECTION REMAINING THE BIG QUESTION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INCREASE PWAT VALUES AT KMCO TO ARND 1.7" BY 06Z TUE WITH
0-3KM HELICITY INCREASING TO BTWN 300-350 M2/S2...CAPE VALUES
CLIMBING OVER 2000 J/KG...ARND 1500...ACCOMPANIED BY 45KT-50KT SW
WINDS THRU THE H95-H70 LYR BY DAYBREAK TUE. GFS/ECMWF TIMING FOR THE
SQUALL LINE IT PRETTY CLOSE...PUSHING IT THRU CENTRAL FL BTWN 12Z
TUE AND 00Z WED. A DISTINCT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR WX REMAINS
IN PLAY. HODOGRAPHS INDICATE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...THOUGH THE INCREASING HELICITY SUGGESTS ROTATING STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. H50 TEMPS ARND -8C INDICATES LARGE HAIL THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.
THE PERSISTENT S/SWRLY FLOW WILL PUSH MON AFTN TEMPS INTO THE M80S
ALONG THE COAST AND U80S/L90S INTERIOR WHILE HOLDING OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS IN THE U60S/L70S INTERIOR...L/M70S ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU...RAIN COOLED AIR AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TUE MAX/MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S ALONG AND N
OF I-4...L/M80S TO THE S. POST FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION TUE NIGHT
WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE L/M50S ALONG AND N OF I-4...U50S/L60S ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST.
WED-SAT...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH 07/06Z. A SMALL AFTERNOON SHOWER CHC
AT KDAB AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AFT 19Z. UPPER LVL CIRRUS WILL AFFECT
NRN TERMINALS INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...S WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME SSE/SE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT LATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
MON-MON NIGHT...STORM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RIDE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE THE
ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE...SUPPRESSING IT INTO THE FL STRAITS.
INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE TO FRESH
SRLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY...BCMG FRESH TO STRONG AFT MIDNIGHT MON
INTO TUE AS A SQUALL LINE PRESSES INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG SWRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL AS THE
SQUALL LINE PRESSES THRU CENTRAL FL. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICKUP OUT OF THE W/NW
AFT SUNSET AS A POST FRONTAL WIND SURGE BOOSTS SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO
THE 20-25KT RANGE. THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAVE THE LCL
ATLC FETCH PROTECTED...LIMITING SEAS TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT
OFFSHORE. EVEN SO...THESE WILL CONSIST OF ROUGH SHORT PD WIND WAVES
THAT WILL MAKE LOCAL BOATING CONDITIONS QUITE HAZARDOUS.
WED-NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE DAY AS A
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH. EVEN SO...
OVERALL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THRU LATE AFTN AS
WINDS SPIN DOWN...DIMINISHING TO 10-15KTS BY SUNSET WHILE VEERING
THRU DUE N. THE OPPOSING WIND/GULFSTREAM DIRECTIONS WILL MAINTAIN
ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SEAS 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT
OFFSHORE TO START THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
THU-THU NIGHT...HI PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE W ATLC AND GENERATE A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE THRU THE DAY...VEERING TO DUE E BY
SUNSET AND CONTG OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RHS AROUND 40 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A SE WIND DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. DRIER AIR AND
CRITICAL MIN RH LEVELS EXPECTED BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 66 84 69 / 20 10 40 60
MCO 87 66 88 69 / 10 10 40 60
MLB 84 68 84 72 / 10 10 20 50
VRB 84 67 84 73 / 10 10 20 40
LEE 85 67 87 69 / 10 10 40 60
SFB 87 67 87 70 / 10 10 40 60
ORL 87 68 87 71 / 10 10 40 60
FPR 83 68 84 74 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1034 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH IN THE FORECAST
AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE REGION BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING STRONG CONVECTION OFF THE COAST AND THE COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AT 500MB AND MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE WEDGE
ERODES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT GETS BY 12Z AND HAVE LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION MAY HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND
20 PERCENT.
WE USED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE SHARP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUPPORTED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS SUPPORT NEAR- NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BULK OF SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING. SOME VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE EVENING...BUT IFR
TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LAMP GUIDANCE AND HRRR LEANING TOWARDS IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AT
ALL TAF SITES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 09Z
TO 12Z. RADAR TRENDS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WILL HANDLE WITH A -SHRA OR A VCSH UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...THOUGH MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
729 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR DAYBREAK...UPDATED TO LOWER SOME OF MORNING RAIN CHANCES NORTH
OF A LINE FROM HAMPTON TO CHARLESTON. LATEST NAM/HRRR SUGGESTS RAINS
COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP LAYERED AIR MASS
IS DRIER AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW FORECASTED
VALUES AT 11Z.
TODAY...QUITE A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO BUT THE OVERALL PICTURE
REMAINS UNCHANGED AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS E AND ENE FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL ACCOMPANY AN
ENERGETIC MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING COPIOUS
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE RAINS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST
REGION. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPPER FORCING/DIFLUENCE
PROGGED TO FOCUS A REGION OF MODERATE RAINS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16 LATER THIS
MORNING INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. MANY OF THE 00Z MODELS SPIT
OUT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FROM METTER TO STATESBORO AND
SAVANNAH/BEAUFORT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF THE OUTLIER MODEL WITH THE
LOWEST QPF TALLIES ACROSS OUR REGION...AROUND 1/2 INCH IN GEORGIA.
CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA
MAYBE KEEPING RAIN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS LOWER FROM ABOUT ST. GEORGE TO
JAMESTOWN. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT GIVEN
ONGOING UPSTREAM TRENDS AND RAP ANALYSIS...WE FELT THAT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS WAS WORTH A MENTION S OF I-16.
WITH THE WEDGE PATTERN DIGGING IN AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER MUCH OF THE DAY THAN CURRENT READINGS WE ARE SEEING
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAKES FOR PROBLEMATIC TEMP FORECASTING AS ATYPICAL
DIURNAL CURVES AND STEADY READINGS LIKELY THE STORY FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLY WEATHER AT TIMES. LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EXPAND UNDER THE WEDGE INVERSION WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT. MOSTLY EXPECT SOME MORNING SHOWERS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS
WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT AND THIS WILL LIKELY PLAY INTO THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL MIXING THAT WILL OCCUR. WE REMAIN
IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CLOSELY. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES CAN/T BE RULED OUT EITHER AS HELICITY LOOKS TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA/UPSTATE SC. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AS WELL BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EVEN OUTSIDE ANY STORMS IT
WILL BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET /AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH AT ABOUT 2K FT/.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SC COAST.
LAKE WINDS...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE LAKE SHORES CLOSER TO
THE WARMER LAND AREAS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
TO ACCOUNT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND/OR GUSTS TO 25-30
KT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE JET FORCING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY BUT ONLY BE AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SETTING UP PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND INLAND
LOCALES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN SET UP
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC SETTING UP A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TODAY...WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINS AT KSAV. WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR TAF TRENDS TO
MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AS
RAINS BECOME MORE PREVALENT. LATEST MODELS SUGGESTING KCHS MAY BE
SLOW TO BOTH PRECIPITATE...BUT ALREADY WE ARE SEEING LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING. WE TRENDED KCHS A BIT
MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO PREVAILING RAINS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRATUS SHOULD BUILD-DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND WE HAVE TRENDED IFR IN THE TONIGHT
PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FROM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KSAV.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY BE
TEMPORARY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR HEAVY
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS...AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY VFR WED-FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NOSING OUT OF THE PEE DEE INTO THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT UPSTREAM PINCHING AND SURGING
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LESS THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WILL STILL BEGIN AT 12Z THIS
MORNING BUT THE ONSET OF BETTER PINCHING WITH THE THERMAL/MOISTURE
GRADIENT AND DEVELOPING SURFACE WEDGE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
MORNING OR EVEN THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WERE
MAINTAINED INTO THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY. THE
MESOSCALE GRADIENT LOOKS VERY TRICKY FOR THIS PARTICULAR EVENT AND
WE MADE ONLY SLIGHT OVERALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ON AVERAGE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP LOCALLY WITH
ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM AND IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND COLD ADVECTION...LIKELY PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
424 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WEAK SURFACE FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AT 07Z WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH BY DAYBREAK
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION SETTING UP A WEDGE
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY SINCE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR SPILLING SOUTH TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. A
LEAD BATCH OF RAINS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION A PRE-CURSOR
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS ON THE WAY TODAY FOR SE GEORGIA. AS THE
FRONT SINKS S...MILDER TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO FALL...MOST
NOTICEABLY OVER INLAND SE SOUTH CAROLINA.
TODAY...QUITE A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO TODAY BUT THE OVERALL
PICTURE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS E AND ENE FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL ACCOMPANY
AN ENERGETIC MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING COPIOUS
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE RAINS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST
REGION. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPPER FORCING/DIFLUENCE
PROGGED TO FOCUS A REGION OF MODERATE RAINS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16 LATER THIS
MORNING INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. MANY OF THE 00Z MODELS SPIT
OUT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FROM METTER TO STATESBORO AND
SAVANNAH/BEAUFORT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF THE OUTLIER MODEL WITH THE
LOWEST QPF TALLIES ACROSS OUR REGION...AROUND 1/2 INCH IN GEORGIA.
CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA
MAYBE KEEPING RAIN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS LOWER FROM ABOUT ST. GEORGE TO
JAMESTOWN. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT GIVEN
ONGOING UPSTREAM TRENDS AND RAP ANALYSIS...WE FELT THAT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS WAS WORTH A MENTION S OF I-16.
WITH THE WEDGE PATTERN DIGGING IN AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER MUCH OF THE DAY THAN CURRENT READINGS WE ARE SEEING
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAKES FOR PROBLEMATIC TEMP FORECASTING AS ATYPICAL
DIURNAL CURVES AND STEADY READINGS LIKELY THE STORY FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLY WEATHER AT TIMES. LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EXPAND UNDER THE WEDGE INVERSION WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT. MOSTLY EXPECT SOME MORNING SHOWERS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS
WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT AND THIS WILL LIKELY PLAY INTO THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL MIXING THAT WILL OCCUR. WE REMAIN
IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CLOSELY. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES CAN/T BE RULED OUT EITHER AS HELICITY LOOKS TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA/UPSTATE SC. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AS WELL BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EVEN OUTSIDE ANY STORMS IT
WILL BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET /AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH AT ABOUT 2K FT/.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SC COAST.
LAKE WINDS...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE LAKE SHORES CLOSER TO
THE WARMER LAND AREAS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
TO ACCOUNT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND/OR GUSTS TO 25-30
KT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE JET FORCING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY BUT ONLY BE AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SETTING UP PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND INLAND
LOCALES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN SET UP
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC SETTING UP A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TOWARD DAYBREAK...IF NOT A BIT
SOONER AT KSAV WHERE RAINS WILL BE DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. WE MAINTAINED
SIMILAR TRENDS TO MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING AS RAINS BECOME MORE PREVALENT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
STEADIEST/HEAVIER RAINS AT KSAV AND THAT IS WHERE WE INTRO IFR CIGS
INITIALLY TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING...MODELS
SUGGEST STRATUS SHOULD BUILD-DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND WE HAVE TRENDED IFR IN THE LATER PART OF 06Z TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY BE
TEMPORARY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR HEAVY
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS...AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY VFR WED-FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NOSING OUT OF THE PEE DEE INTO THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT UPSTREAM PINCHING AND SURGING
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LESS THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WILL STILL BEGIN AT 12Z THIS
MORNING BUT THE ONSET OF BETTER PINCHING WITH THE THERMAL/MOISTURE
GRADIENT AND DEVELOPING SURFACE WEDGE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
MORNING OR EVEN THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WERE
MAINTAINED INTO THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY. THE
MESOSCALE GRADIENT LOOKS VERY TRICKY FOR THIS PARTICULAR EVENT AND
WE MADE ONLY SLIGHT OVERALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ON AVERAGE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP LOCALLY WITH
ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM AND IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND COLD ADVECTION...LIKELY PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
901 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING LIGHT SNOWFALL BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY AS SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN MONTANA.
AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING ISOLATED
THUNDER TO GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF SHORTWAVE STILL
LOOKS TO MOSTLY EXIT EASTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING THOUGH LATEST NAM
RUN HOLDING ON TO WEAK POCKETS OF QPF ALONG DIVIDE AND WYOMING
BORDER AFTER 06Z. WINDS STILL MAIN CONCERN TODAY THOUGH EVEN RECENT
GUIDANCE BACKING OFF BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE NUDGED WINDS TOWARD LATEST HRRR WITH GOOD REPRESENTATION OF
CANYON OUTFLOW FROM CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS...STILL WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. REMAINDER OF GRID
PACKAGE REASONABLE FOR TODAY. NO OTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY AND
EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AS WELL AND EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WELL BEHIND FRONT MAINLY IN SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. THINK FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL STAY UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS
IN MOST AREAS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS NOR NEARLY AS
STRONG AS TODAY.
GK
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE REGION WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE CNTRL AND
NE MOUNTAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE MOIST WNW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE EITHER FRIDAY (GFS) OR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY (ECMWF)
WHICH LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH THE GFS FAVORING A
BACKDOOR TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE DAKOTAS AND BANKING UP AGAINST THE
MONTANA/WYOMING DIVIDE IN A NE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE ECMWF ON
THE OTHER HAND IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE BACKDOOR TROUGH AND
CONSEQUENTLY IS ADVERTISING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS SRN IDAHO
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD AND DRY NORTH FLOW SPREADS
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. PREFERENCE HERE IS THE WARMER/DRIER GFS.
HUSTON
AVIATION...A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED DIGGING SE INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FAVORING THE ERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE SHEARS THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOW
OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST EDGES INLAND. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINAL
SITES...BELIEVE KIDA/KPIH AND KBYI MAY BE MOST AT RISK FOR THIS WITH
UPSLOPE WNW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH KSUN NOT TOTALLY OUT OF
THE MIX. MESO-SCALE WRF MODEL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CONVERGENCE SNOW EVENT WORKING OUT OF THE ARCO REGION AROUND 19Z AND
SPREADING INTO KIDA AND KPIH 20-23Z WITH ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY/LOWER CIGS. ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY MAY BOOST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
CONVERGENCE AREA. HUSTON
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
638 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
WEAKENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE STATE HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED
AS A NEW TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM SURFACE LOW IN SRN INDIANA. WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE...BUT ABOUT 500 J/KG HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL CAPE IN THE 100 TO 200 J/KG RANGE. WITH LOW
FREEZING LEVELS HAVE HAD HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE IN CARROLL COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND A QUICK 0.7 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE JEFFERSON
AREA. EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT FOR A WHILE BEFORE SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE OVERALL FORECAST WITH LATEST TRENDS ALREADY
CAPTURED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. STILL LOOKING
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR TUESDAY...WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUD COVER INITIALLY
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY EXITING THE STATE INITIALLY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH STRONG WAA STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
70S STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. BIGGEST ISSUE WEDNESDAY
IS WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER...AND HIGHER GUSTS. SOME DRIER AIR ALSO EXPECTED TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING RH VALUES
COULD DROP INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER...SO
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DROP THROUGH THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE MAIN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. BEST FORCING WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...SO ONLY HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CWA. REMAINDER OF CWA MAY ONLY SEE SOME INCREASED MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO QUICKLY KICK BACK IN BY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM TO
BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE CWA INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THETA-E ADVECTION ORIENTED RIGHT INTO THE CWA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO IOWA. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE DAY APPROACHES AS WELL. GFS REMAINS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA
SUNDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EC REMAINS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...AND KEEPS THE FRONT
STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA INTO SUNDAY WITH IT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE
CWA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO HAS ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH TO CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT
WITH POSSIBILITY OF A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH SOME RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AS COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE SPLIT THE
SCENARIOS...WITH SOME CHANCE POPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE CWA.
TEMPS LOOK TO FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS H85 TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING
AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...08/00Z
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DEPART THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. RAP AND NAM WERE SUGGESTING LOW LEVEL MVFR
CLOUDS MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST IOWA AFTER 09Z AND SPREADING
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF SECONDARY UPPER TROF INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED SOME OF THIS IN THE TAFS...BUT HAVE LEFT CEILING VFR AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY AS DAYTIME LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS APR 14
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1224 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME DESPITE
THE OUTLIER GFS FORECAST OF PRECIP. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR APPARENT ON
THE 00Z OUN AND DDC SOUNDINGS IS INDICATIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS. IN
ADDITION...THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...ARE
TOO HIGH WITH THEIR SURFACE DEW POINT INITIALIZATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO HRRR AND HOPWRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS SUGGEST
ANY PRECIP THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE SPRINKLES...IF INDEED
ANYTHING WERE TO EVEN DEVELOP IN THE CWA AT ALL.
CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BALANCE LOSS OF FULL
SUNSHINE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY SUCH THAT TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. DOWNSTREAM TEMPS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA COULD EXCEED 60 DEGREES. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL MODERATE OVER THIS MORNING`S READINGS
WITH MOSTLY 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA.
WOLF
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON NICE WARM-UP THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR THE STORM
SYSTEM ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE TOO HIGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THIS CURRENT
REGIME COMPARED TO REALITY AND HAVE LOWERED VALUES SOMEWHAT
THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST WITH THE
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE TRACKING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. FOR NOW THIS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AS OTHER MODELS AGREE
ON KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS AS NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S.
MID TO LATE WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL PULL MILD TO
WARM AIR INTO THE MIDWEST ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND COMBINED
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY VEGETATION...THERE WILL BE AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR GRASS FIRES. WILL BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HWO PRODUCT EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
BY THURSDAY EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT AND INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WITH MOST
OF THE AREA RESIDING IN LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE AND SUBSIDENCE IN
BETWEEN PCPN AREAS TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...AND
TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH STORM SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE TX GULF COAST
TO THE OHIO VLY. S/SE WINDS WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 10 KTS
THIS AFTN THEN DROP BLO 10KTS TNGT INTO MONDAY AM WHILE BACKING TO
THE N/NE. MCCLURE
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
621 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME DESPITE
THE OUTLIER GFS FORECAST OF PRECIP. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR APPARENT ON
THE 00Z OUN AND DDC SOUNDINGS IS INDICATIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS. IN
ADDITION...THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...ARE
TOO HIGH WITH THEIR SURFACE DEW POINT INITIALIZATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO HRRR AND HOPWRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS SUGGEST
ANY PRECIP THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE SPRINKLES...IF INDEED
ANYTHING WERE TO EVEN DEVELOP IN THE CWA AT ALL.
CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BALANCE LOSS OF FULL
SUNSHINE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY SUCH THAT TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. DOWNSTREAM TEMPS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA COULD EXCEED 60 DEGREES. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL MODERATE OVER THIS MORNING`S READINGS
WITH MOSTLY 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA.
WOLF
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON NICE WARM-UP THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR THE STORM
SYSTEM ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE TOO HIGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THIS CURRENT
REGIME COMPARED TO REALITY AND HAVE LOWERED VALUES SOMEWHAT
THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST WITH THE
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE TRACKING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. FOR NOW THIS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AS OTHER MODELS AGREE
ON KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS AS NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S.
MID TO LATE WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL PULL MILD TO
WARM AIR INTO THE MIDWEST ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND COMBINED
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY VEGETATION...THERE WILL BE AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR GRASS FIRES. WILL BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HWO PRODUCT EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
BY THURSDAY EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT AND INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...AND RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THAT TIME. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS IS PUSHING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BUT NO IMPACT TO AIRPORT OPS IS EXPECTED.
SOUTH WINDS WILL EQUAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 10 KTS TODAY...THEN
DROP BELOW THAT THRESHOLD AND BACK SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WOLF
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...WOLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME DESPITE
THE OUTLIER GFS FORECAST OF PRECIP. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR APPARENT ON
THE 00Z OUN AND DDC SOUNDINGS IS INDICATIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS. IN
ADDITION...THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...ARE
TOO HIGH WITH THEIR SURFACE DEW POINT INITIALIZATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO HRRR AND HOPWRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS SUGGEST
ANY PRECIP THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE SPRINKLES...IF INDEED
ANYTHING WERE TO EVEN DEVELOP IN THE CWA AT ALL.
CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BALANCE LOSS OF FULL
SUNSHINE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY SUCH THAT TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. DOWNSTREAM TEMPS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA COULD EXCEED 60 DEGREES. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL MODERATE OVER THIS MORNING`S READINGS
WITH MOSTLY 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA.
WOLF
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON NICE WARM-UP THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR THE STORM
SYSTEM ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE TOO HIGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THIS CURRENT
REGIME COMPARED TO REALITY AND HAVE LOWERED VALUES SOMEWHAT
THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST WITH THE
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE TRACKING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. FOR NOW THIS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AS OTHER MODELS AGREE
ON KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS AS NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S.
MID TO LATE WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL PULL MILD TO
WARM AIR INTO THE MIDWEST ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND COMBINED
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY VEGETATION...THERE WILL BE AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR GRASS FIRES. WILL BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HWO PRODUCT EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
BY THURSDAY EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT AND INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
PLEASANTLY VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PLUS...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY...WITH
SOME HOURS OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY. ALL CIGS WILL BE 10 KFT OR HIGHER...AS CIRRUS AND
MID CLOUDS PASS OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH DRY AIR BELOW THIS
LEVEL...NO LOWER CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
206 PM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
MODELS PLAYING CATCHUP THIS MORNING. SYSTEM THAT WAS EXPECTED TO
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED BY MYSELF AND MODEL OUTPUT. MAIN CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL IS SOUTH OF MY AREA WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANCE IN MY
FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION THERE IS A LOT LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN THE MODELS THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURES TO GET WARMER THAN EXPECTED. RAP WAS DOING A DECENT
JOB WITH THIS AND USED FOR THE UPDATE. ALSO DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
SKY COVER PER LATEST SATELLITE WITH MODEL OUTPUT HAVING TOO MUCH.
SATELLITE AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM 12Z
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE IN THIS AIR MASS. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS
SHOWING NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES THROUGH MID LEVELS INTO THIS
EVENING IN ADDITION TO KEEPING AROUND SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE.
ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH IS PUSHING THE AREA AND IS ABOUT HALF WAY
THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS INDICATING
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL END UP BEING DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS BY LATE THIS MORNING. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS ALSO
GENERATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SO ADJUSTED POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACCOUNTING FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL TONIGHT...COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
WYOMING AND UTAH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
FOR TODAY...MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK ELEVATED FRONTAL BAND THAT STRETCHES FROM
NEAR PUEBLO...COLORADO TO HAYS...KANSAS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE
DUE TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SO LOWERED
POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...
EXPECTING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND HEAD EAST. OVERALL...CAPE...SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST. CONSIDERED REMOVING THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN AS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TODAY...THINK THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO WIDESPREAD STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE COME DOWN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS AS THE WIND FIELD
ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE NUDGED WINDS DOWN A
COUPLE KNOTS BUT AM STILL FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST RUN AND ONE MAY NOT BE
NEEDED AT ALL BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. SO FAR...THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD MEAN AN INCREASED THREAT OF BLOWING DUST.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED...BLOWING DUST WOULD NOT BE A
MAJOR THREAT FOR OUR REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER BACK TO THE TRI-STATE AREA.
WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN WITH WARMER 850 MB TEMPS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO
THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WARMER
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE ANY THREAT
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE WARM AND
DRY DURING THAT PERIOD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL APPROACH CRITICAL
VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. RIDGE GETS FLATTENED WEDNESDAY NIGHT BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TIMEFRAME. DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST IN THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE BUT
WILL LIKELY BE FADING BY THE TIME IT REACHES YUMA COUNTY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED
IN THE FOUR CORNERS AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SATURDAY
MAY PROVIDE THE FIRST REAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...COOLING ALOFT AND WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH HIGHEST VALUES FROM
HILL CITY TO GOVE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GFS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP
TO 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY FORECAST AT
AROUND 25KT WHICH WOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. STILL A WEEK
AWAY BUT MID APRIL TYPICALLY SEES SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
INCREASING. SUNDAY PRESENTS YET ANOTHER CONCERN...WITH THE ECMWF
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS SHOWING MUCH COLDER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE AND PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW.
ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND CONDITIONS WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...BUT THEN AGAIN MID APRIL SNOW STORMS ARE
NOT UNHEARD OF IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DID CHOOSE TO PUT
-TSRA AT BOTH SITES BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE KMCK WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AND THAT IS WHY I PUT IN A MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.
LATER ON TONIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS FROM NEAR 12Z
TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL LAST BEYOND THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1137 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
MODELS PLAYING CATCHUP THIS MORNING. SYSTEM THAT WAS EXPECTED TO
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED BY MYSELF AND MODEL OUTPUT. MAIN CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL IS SOUTH OF MY AREA WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANCE IN MY
FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION THERE IS A LOT LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN THE MODELS THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURES TO GET WARMER THAN EXPECTED. RAP WAS DOING A DECENT
JOB WITH THIS AND USED FOR THE UPDATE. ALSO DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
SKY COVER PER LATEST SATELLITE WITH MODEL OUTPUT HAVING TOO MUCH.
SATELLITE AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM 12Z
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE IN THIS AIR MASS. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS
SHOWING NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES THROUGH MID LEVELS INTO THIS
EVENING IN ADDITION TO KEEPING AROUND SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE.
ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH IS PUSHING THE AREA AND IS ABOUT HALF WAY
THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS INDICATING
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL END UP BEING DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS BY LATE THIS MORNING. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS ALSO
GENERATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SO ADJUSTED POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACCOUNTING FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL TONIGHT...COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
WYOMING AND UTAH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
FOR TODAY...MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK ELEVATED FRONTAL BAND THAT STRETCHES FROM
NEAR PUEBLO...COLORADO TO HAYS...KANSAS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE
DUE TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SO LOWERED
POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...
EXPECTING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND HEAD EAST. OVERALL...CAPE...SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST. CONSIDERED REMOVING THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN AS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TODAY...THINK THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO WIDESPREAD STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE COME DOWN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS AS THE WIND FIELD
ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE NUDGED WINDS DOWN A
COUPLE KNOTS BUT AM STILL FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST RUN AND ONE MAY NOT BE
NEEDED AT ALL BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. SO FAR...THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD MEAN AN INCREASED THREAT OF BLOWING DUST.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED...BLOWING DUST WOULD NOT BE A
MAJOR THREAT FOR OUR REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER BACK TO THE TRI-STATE AREA.
WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN WITH WARMER 850 MB TEMPS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO
THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WARMER
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE ANY THREAT
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DOMINANCE OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE TRI STATE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE AT A
CRITICAL LEVEL...HOWEVER CALM WIND SPEEDS UNDER A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY THWART ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT VERY DRY MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PROFILE THAT IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY
PRECIP. MOST MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY.
MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY...BRINGING POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY AND LIFT TO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY...BUT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL FILL INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SNOWFLAKES TO SOME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PER
COLLABORATION HOWEVER...LEFT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. EVEN IF
SOME SNOW DID OCCUR...WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT ALLOW ANY
ACCUMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DID CHOOSE TO PUT
-TSRA AT BOTH SITES BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE KMCK WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AND THAT IS WHY I PUT IN A MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.
LATER ON TONIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS FROM NEAR 12Z
TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL LAST BEYOND THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1033 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
MODELS PLAYING CATCHUP THIS MORNING. SYSTEM THAT WAS EXPECTED TO
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED BY MYSELF AND MODEL OUTPUT. MAIN CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL IS SOUTH OF MY AREA WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANCE IN MY
FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION THERE IS A LOT LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN THE MODELS THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURES TO GET WARMER THAN EXPECTED. RAP WAS DOING A DECENT
JOB WITH THIS AND USED FOR THE UPDATE. ALSO DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
SKY COVER PER LATEST SATELLITE WITH MODEL OUTPUT HAVING TOO MUCH.
SATELLITE AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM 12Z
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE IN THIS AIR MASS. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS
SHOWING NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES THROUGH MID LEVELS INTO THIS
EVENING IN ADDITION TO KEEPING AROUND SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE.
ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH IS PUSHING THE AREA AND IS ABOUT HALF WAY
THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS INDICATING
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL END UP BEING DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS BY LATE THIS MORNING. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS ALSO
GENERATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SO ADJUSTED POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACCOUNTING FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL TONIGHT...COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
WYOMING AND UTAH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
FOR TODAY...MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK ELEVATED FRONTAL BAND THAT STRETCHES FROM
NEAR PUEBLO...COLORADO TO HAYS...KANSAS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE
DUE TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SO LOWERED
POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...
EXPECTING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND HEAD EAST. OVERALL...CAPE...SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST. CONSIDERED REMOVING THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN AS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TODAY...THINK THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO WIDESPREAD STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE COME DOWN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS AS THE WIND FIELD
ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE NUDGED WINDS DOWN A
COUPLE KNOTS BUT AM STILL FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST RUN AND ONE MAY NOT BE
NEEDED AT ALL BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. SO FAR...THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD MEAN AN INCREASED THREAT OF BLOWING DUST.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED...BLOWING DUST WOULD NOT BE A
MAJOR THREAT FOR OUR REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER BACK TO THE TRI-STATE AREA.
WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN WITH WARMER 850 MB TEMPS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO
THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WARMER
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE ANY THREAT
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DOMINANCE OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE TRI STATE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE AT A
CRITICAL LEVEL...HOWEVER CALM WIND SPEEDS UNDER A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY THWART ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT VERY DRY MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PROFILE THAT IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY
PRECIP. MOST MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY.
MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY...BRINGING POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY AND LIFT TO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY...BUT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL FILL INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SNOWFLAKES TO SOME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PER
COLLABORATION HOWEVER...LEFT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. EVEN IF
SOME SNOW DID OCCUR...WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT ALLOW ANY
ACCUMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXACT
TIMING/PLACEMENT WAS UNKNOWN. MENTIONED VCTS FOR KMCK AS BOTH GFS
AND NAM CROSS-SECTIONS DEPICT STRONGER LIFT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIP FORECAST AS
WELL AS CIG HEIGHTS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR MAJORITY OF TAF
PERIOD BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER A SHOWER
OR STRATUS AS WAS OBSERVED AT KMCK EARLIER. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO NORTH WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
224 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 63 FOR OUR LOUISIANA
PARISHES AND EXTEND OVER OUR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES THROUGH 6
PM. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET GOING ACRS OUR AREA SO FAR
TODAY. HOWEVER...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH. LATEST HRRR AND RUC13 SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA...AND THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RADAR TRENDS SO OPTED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT
SVR WATCH IN TIME. OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS/WX AS
WELL AS TEMPS AS WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SITS ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
A KBPT-KARA LINE AND SHOULD BE SLIDING NORTH OF KLCH WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF IFR/LIFR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT IS NOW
BEGINNING TO WORK INLAND ALONG THE COAST. THEN IT BECOMES SOMEWHAT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES. AT THIS TIME THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN 23Z AND 06Z THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE TRIED TO
NARROW DOWN THE TIMING AS BEST WE CAN USING THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND THE NMC HIRES-ARW.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUST FOR A TIME AT LFT AND ARA AS THE WARM
SECTOR SURGE DEVELOPS IN A FEW HOURS.
BRAZZELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
UPDATE...
STILL ANTICIPATE A BUSY DAY TODAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF ENTERS
THE SRN PLAINS...INDUCING A SFC LOW NR THE TX COAST ON A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY SITS ALONG THE LA/TX COASTLINE.
SVR WATCH 63 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-10...ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY ACRS NRN LA INTO CNTL TX WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED POPS FOR TODAY...BROKEN DOWN INTO
SHORTER TIME INCREMENTS TO INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. ALSO ADDED FOG MAINLY TO SRN ZONES...WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES AND
BAYS FOR THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTN. DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF...WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH ALL
TYPES OF SEVERE MODES POSSIBLE (TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS). ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO MORE THAN 1.7 INCHES...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS. THUS...A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL TRANSITION EAST OVERNIGHT TOWARD OUR S CNTL LA
PARISHES...ENDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. HAVE INCLUDED LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
AND ADVANCING NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT
EASTERLY BUT RAPIDLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS AT
2K FT. OTHERWISE...IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THIS AS A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE TROF ALOFT ADVANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS SENDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ELEVATED BUT
STILL POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DOCKET THIS MORNING...BECOMING SURFACE BASED WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AREA WARM
SECTORS WITH THE NORTHWARD PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 63 IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES AND
PARISHES ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. THE
WATCH WILL GO UNTIL 2 PM TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
RAINS/SHOWERS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INCLUDING THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST INTO LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI... AND ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST WITH A TRAILING WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS COMING FROM A
TROF BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
TODAY WE ARE LOOKING AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE
THREAT THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE FROM WINDS AND HAIL ALTHOUGH A TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
ALSO THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION... RAINS WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED TODAY. THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ENDING AROUND
SUNRISE.
WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THIS MESS OFF TO
THE EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. RAINS
FINALLY ENDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN
COOL DRY WEATHER BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE DOWNSIDE IS RAINS MOVE BACK INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND. 19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 73 60 72 53 / 80 80 20 10
KBPT 74 60 73 56 / 80 70 20 10
KAEX 70 59 69 50 / 90 90 20 20
KLFT 76 66 73 55 / 70 90 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-
BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EAST CAMERON-EVANGELINE-IBERIA-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-ST.
LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON-WEST
CAMERON.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR HARDIN-JEFFERSON-NORTHERN
JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN
NEWTON-TYLER.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1240 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF IFR/LIFR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT IS NOW
BEGINNING TO WORK INLAND ALONG THE COAST. THEN IT BECOMES SOMEWHAT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES. AT THIS TIME THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN 23Z AND 06Z THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE TRIED TO
NARROW DOWN THE TIMING AS BEST WE CAN USING THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND THE NMC HIRES-ARW.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUST FOR A TIME AT LFT AND ARA AS THE WARM
SECTOR SURGE DEVELOPS IN A FEW HOURS.
BRAZZELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
UPDATE...
STILL ANTICIPATE A BUSY DAY TODAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF ENTERS
THE SRN PLAINS...INDUCING A SFC LOW NR THE TX COAST ON A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY SITS ALONG THE LA/TX COASTLINE.
SVR WATCH 63 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-10...ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY ACRS NRN LA INTO CNTL TX WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED POPS FOR TODAY...BROKEN DOWN INTO
SHORTER TIME INCREMENTS TO INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. ALSO ADDED FOG MAINLY TO SRN ZONES...WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES AND
BAYS FOR THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTN. DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF...WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH ALL
TYPES OF SEVERE MODES POSSIBLE (TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS). ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO MORE THAN 1.7 INCHES...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS. THUS...A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL TRANSITION EAST OVERNIGHT TOWARD OUR S CNTL LA
PARISHES...ENDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. HAVE INCLUDED LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
AND ADVANCING NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT
EASTERLY BUT RAPIDLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS AT
2K FT. OTHERWISE...IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THIS AS A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE TROF ALOFT ADVANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS SENDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ELEVATED BUT
STILL POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DOCKET THIS MORNING...BECOMING SURFACE BASED WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AREA WARM
SECTORS WITH THE NORTHWARD PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 63 IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES AND
PARISHES ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. THE
WATCH WILL GO UNTIL 2 PM TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
RAINS/SHOWERS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INCLUDING THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST INTO LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI... AND ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST WITH A TRAILING WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS COMING FROM A
TROF BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
TODAY WE ARE LOOKING AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE
THREAT THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE FROM WINDS AND HAIL ALTHOUGH A TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
ALSO THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION... RAINS WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED TODAY. THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ENDING AROUND
SUNRISE.
WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THIS MESS OFF TO
THE EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. RAINS
FINALLY ENDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN
COOL DRY WEATHER BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE DOWNSIDE IS RAINS MOVE BACK INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND. 19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 77 60 73 54 71 / 80 90 20 10 10
KBPT 76 60 73 56 73 / 80 70 20 10 10
KAEX 71 59 69 50 69 / 90 90 20 20 10
KLFT 78 66 73 55 70 / 70 90 20 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST.
MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...WEST CAMERON.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...
ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
954 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EXIT THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND LINGERS
NEAR THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING INTO N/CNTRL VA...SRN MD AND DE LATE MON
EVENG. LO PRES WAS LOCATED OVR CNTRL OHIO...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FM THE LO SWRD THRU EXTRM ERN KY AND TN. LATEST RADAR
INDICATED SHOWERS MOVNG NNE THRU ERN SC AND NC. BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR DERIVED REFLECTIVITY FCST AND THE FACT OF THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING EWRD INTO/ACRS THE FA...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RE-
GENERATE AND SPREAD NNE UP THRU MAINLY CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC FOR THUNDER OVR SE VA AND NE NC
CNTIES...WHERE HIGHER DWPTS/BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID TO UPR 40S EXTRM W/NW TO THE LWR 60S
SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE COAST TUE MORNING...THEN STALLS ALONG THE
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST IN THE MORNING WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF AND
BECOMING CONFINED OVER NE NC/FAR SE VA DURING THE AFTN . A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUE
NIGHT (ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY). THE WEAK TROUGH WILL
BE SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK ENERGY TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER THE BEST DYNAMICS
WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FA. TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...
HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
ALBEMARLE SOUND DURING THIS TIME. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL YIELD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S REGIONWIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AS A VERY WEAK TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR TO FILTER INTO NRN
COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGH IN THE LOW-MID 60S NORTH TO MID-UPPER 60S
SOUTH UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SKIES CLEAR WED NIGHT THUS
PROMOTING RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40S FAR NW COUNTIES AND LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD
DURING THE DAY...EXPECT A NICE WARMING TREND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOWER 70S (MID-UPPER 60S IMMEDIATE
COAST).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HEADLINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FORECAST WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SE CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CTRL APPALACHIANS FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CENTER OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC FRI...RIDGING SWWD INTO THE GULF
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE AND WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY RETURN
MOISTURE REGARDLESS OF SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH.
THIS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY ON FRI. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVER THE ERN CONUS FRI AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DIGS OVER THE
MIDWEST. MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER NRN VA/MD...
WHICH MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THAT REGION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA...INCLUDING THE
MD ERN SHORE FRI-FRI NIGHT. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON PUSHING THE WEAK
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SAT. TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...THINKING
THE FRONT WILL HAVE TROUBLE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF MORE
ROBUST WITH SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION FRI NIGHT-THURS
MORNING...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...AS WELL AS
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY SAT. SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. MEANWHILE...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THE FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PROPAGATE EWD OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY SUN NIGHT-MON
MORNING. MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS
12+ HRS FASTER WITH THE FRONT/MOISTURE THAN ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART.
HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS BEGINNING MON TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
70S. SLIGHTLY COOLER SAT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NLY WINDS. SLY
WINDS FRI AND SUN-MON WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY COOLER TEMPS ALONG
THE COASTAL ERN SHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TAKE OVER THE SURFACE WIND
PATTERN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY MORNING
WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR PCPN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. HAVE PCPN BEGIN BY MIDNIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS. MOS
FCSTS APPEAR PESSIMISTIC BUT STILL FORECAST IFR IN THE TAFS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE TIME OF THE PCPN AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
WEST WINDS (A FEW GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE) DEVELOP BEHIND A MORNING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARD MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH MAINLY VFR AND
DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OVER THE OH VALLEY THRU THIS EVENING
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS FROM THE WEST.
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
TO THE NORTH...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY OVER THE WATERS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH SLY WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE WATERS. UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES (COLD WATERS
AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT) WILL LIKELY LIMIT STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT FROM
MIXING TO THE WATERS. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF GOOD MIXING...
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO
20 KT OVER THE BAY AND 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
POTENTIAL EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS COULD ALSO
RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO AN AVERAGE
OF 5 TO 7 FT...BUT COULD BUILD AS HIGH AS 8-9 FT 20 NM OUT. AIR
TEMPS NEAR WARMING WATER TEMPS COULD ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
OVERNIGHT.
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY TUES MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING
W-NW TUES AND N-NW TUES NIGHT. LACK OF CAA AND STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS (HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW) WILL PRODUCE SUB-SCA
WINDS (AOB 15 KT IN THE BAY AND AOB 20 KT COASTAL WATERS) OVER THE
WATERS TUES-TUES NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE TUES...
REMAINING 4-6 FT THRU TUES EVENING. EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES FOR
ALL COASTAL ZONES THRU MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT/WEDS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS-THURS RESULTING IN
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT-EARLY FRI MORNING...LIKELY STALLING OVER THE REGION
FRI.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE APPROACHING SYSTM...TIDES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DESPITE RUNNING ABT
ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT TUES MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE TO BE THE
HIGHEST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE A HISTORY OF PILING UP THE WATER LONGER THAN GUID SUGGESTS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1219 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WAA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR WAS SHOWING TWO AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE FIRST STRETCHED FROM THE
MOOSE LAKE AREA...SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAYWARD. THIS WAS LIGHT RAIN.
ANOTHER AREA HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM BIG FORK EAST TO COOK/ORR
TO ELY. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE RAIN INITIALLY. PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EITHER A WARM LAYER
ENOUGH TO MELT ANY ICE OR A COLUMN NOT SATURATED ENOUGH FOR MUCH
ICE. THE RAP MAX T OVER THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET SHOWS
MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 2C. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE
THE MAIN FACTOR IN WHETHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
FALLS. WE DID EXPAND THE AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT TO INCLUDE MORE OF FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. KPBH WAS 34F OVER 25F AT 02Z. WE
DO EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF H85 WEAK SHORT WAVE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE ONSHORE WINDS KEPT
READINGS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 30S.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE EVENING...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO NW MINNESOTA. THIS WAVE
IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT THERE IS SUFFICIENT WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE BROAD BRUSH SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
900 PM. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS FOG FOR ALL ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND CALM WINDS. MOST AREAS
CAN EXPECT A BATCH OF -SHRA OR -DZ OVERNIGHT WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. LOCATIONS IN THE MN
ARROWHEAD MAY SEE GREATER QPF...AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...AS
WELL AS A SMALL THREAT FOR VERY LIGHT -FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO ICE
ACCUM IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY -FZDZ...WITH COOLER READINGS
ARRIVING IN THE DRIER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE AFTER THE
PRECIP ENDS. THE LOW POPS AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER OVER
THE NRN WISCONSIN AND SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ZONES INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
WE ARE DEFINITELY ENTERING INTO THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE WE START TO
SEE A LOT OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE CASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND PERHAPS BEYOND IN SOME OF
THE TIME PERIODS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF LOWS CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. WE WILL
ALSO WRESTLE WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT SMALL QPF BULLSEYES RANDOMLY
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL GENERALLY KEEP MOST PERIODS DRY FOR NOW.
COULD SEE HAVING TO ADD SOME SMALL POPS AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE AT
SOME POINT...BUT FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE MODEL
RUNS AND AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS TO HIT ANY PARTICULAR
PRECIPITATION AREAS IN THE GRIDS. HAVE ADDED POPS TO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SO WE MAY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO BE ABLE TO HOLD MORE MOISTURE FROM
THE SPRING SNOWMELT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK SHOULD BE LARGELY
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG...WE COULD SEE SOME READINGS A BIT HIGHER THAN
THAT. IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS PEGGING A HIGH TEMP AROUND 70 FOR THE
KBRD AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THEY WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COULD BE A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW POSSIBLY TOWARD THE NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD
THEN COOL A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW STRATUS/FOG HAD YET TO FORM AS OF 0430Z...BUT CEILINGS
FROM 4500-6000FEET HAVE EXPANDED. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...AND WE EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP THERE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING AND WE COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
THE HRRR/RAP AND EVEN THE NAM HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. THE NAM/GFS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP LOW
CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SPOTS SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER
UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. WE BACKED OFF ON THE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS CONFIDENCE JUST IS NOT THERE.
WE ADDED SOME LLWS TO MOST OF THE TAF SITES INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 47 27 44 / 10 20 10 10
INL 29 46 25 44 / 10 20 10 10
BRD 32 51 30 49 / 10 20 10 10
HYR 30 49 27 46 / 10 20 10 10
ASX 29 46 27 43 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1156 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATES A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...ZONAL FLOW EXTENDED
FROM THE PACIFIC NW COAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER EAST...A
STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SRN QUEBEC
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE SRN STREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN ARIZONA WITH HT FALLS OF 50 TO 130 METERS
NOTED FROM EL PASO TO TUSCON. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND EASTERN COLORADO. FURTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER
NRN MISSOURI. DECENT SRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE SRLY WINDS...ALLOWED FOR DECENT
MIXING BY MID MORNING WHICH PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. BY 2 PM CDT...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURE RANGED
FROM 57 AT NORTH PLATTE...TO 65 AT VALENTINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SAGGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SHORTLY BEHIND. A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH YET
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE ISOLATED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM GARDEN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY AS INDICATED LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS WHERE CAPES OF 100-250 J/KG EXIST. ALSO...THE
LATEST NAM AND HRRR BOTH FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA.
TONIGHT...THE NAM IS HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN THE NORTH.
BELIEVE THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT WORTH MONITORING. TOMORROW...AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS CO/KS...WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES ESE FROM WY INTO NE LATER IN THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS MODELS ARE GENERATING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LIFT IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE. A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL RUN FROM AROUND ONEILL TO IMPERIAL TOMORROW AS WELL.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH RATHER
LOW CAPES OF ABOUT 100-200 J/KG. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE BEST
ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN FORECASTING
CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...APPROACHING NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...ABUNDANT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CARRY OVER
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS HAVE NEGATIVE LI`S SUNDAY EVENING WITH
UNSTABLE CONDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. INHERITED FCST HAD A
MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY EVENING...AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THIS RIGHT NOW. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL WANE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS
WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING PACIFIC COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MILD TEMPS MONDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FAR
WEST TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE FOR LOWS MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WITH EXPECTED MIXING...LOWS ON THE ORDER OF
MID 30S IN THE WEST...TO UPPER 30S IN THE EAST SEEM TO BE A BETTER
FIT TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE
INHERITED FCST. WITH WARMER LOWS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING...THE
MENTION OF SNOW WAS SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE ONLY THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND A SLIVER OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
MONDAY.
ON MONDAY...STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THE LATEST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH WINDS THIS MORNING...AND IS
INDICATIVE OF ADVISORY SPEED WINDS FROM LATE MORNING MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE RAMPED UP WINDS IN THE GRIDS
AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE SHORT TERM DESK MENTION THE WIND THREAT
IN THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO WIND...VERY COLD H500
TEMPS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
SURFACE HEATING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST AND HAVE LINGERED THEM THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY AIR...LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE INDICATIVE OF A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETTING UP MONDAY
NIGHT AS WARMER H85 AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEY...TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. ON TUESDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH WARMER H85 TEMPS OF 8 TO 14C WILL PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO 10 TO 20 MPH...AS WELL AND
MAY GUST UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND FCST HIGHS IN THE 60S MAY PUSH FIRE
DANGER TO EXTREME OR NEAR CRITICAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE LONG RANGE...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DEVELOPING RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE
THREAT FOR PCPN LATE NEXT WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BE
SUPPRESSED AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...LOW DEW POINTS AND WIND...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY AND WILL MENTION THIS IN
THE HWO. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN
TIER OF STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SRLY STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE LATEST MID RANGE SOLNS ARE
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO WE
MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
EJECTS ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
WEAK SFC FRONT FROM KOGA TO KVTN DRIFTS SOUTH AND GETS HUNG UP
FROM KIML TO KONL ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT
SUNDAY AFTN-EVENING.
DRY AIR BELOW H700MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR ALL AREAS DURING THE THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
710 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
MELT...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE MAINLY WITHIN
BANK RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME MINOR ICE JAM RELATED
FLOODING POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL
BRIEFLY RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS HEADING
INTO LAKE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 710 PM EDT MONDAY...LOW- LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY EARLY THIS
EVENING /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S RESULTING IN RH VALUES RUNNING IN
THE 30-40% RANGE/. THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS LIMITING ANY RAIN
FROM REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK ECHOES ON
REGIONAL RADAR. HOWEVER A SUBSTANTIAL SURGE IN DEWPOINTS (MID 30S)
IS NOTED WITH THE CURRENT BAND OF STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE TUG
HILL/CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS AREA. THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AS WELL AS EVAPORATIVE/WET-BULB COOLING EFFECTS WILL ACT TO
QUICKLY SATURATE THE COLUMN INTO MID-EVENING. NO CHANGES TO
POPS...WX OR QPF BASED ON RECENT SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHERN NY AND PA...NOTING 50 KT SOUTHEASTERLIES AT 850MB AT BGM
VWP. THIS LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AS THE
OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES CONTRIBUTING TO GUSTY WINDS AT ELEVATION.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 322 PM MONDAY FOLLOWS...
LOOKING AT A WET AND BREEZY EVENING AND NIGHT FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON PUSHES INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK BY TUESDAY MORNING.
RAIN HAS MADE IT ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS SYRACUSE NEW YORK AS OF 230
PM AND WILL CONTINUE ITS STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD AND OVERSPREADING
MUCH OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 8PM AND THE
ENTIRE REGION BY 10PM. MOST WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 8PM AND 4AM WITH INITIAL PUSH OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE SHEARED OFF TO SOUTH AND EAST OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MORE CLOSELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK. THUS LOOKING AT ABOUT 0.5-0.75" ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT...0.5-1.0" ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH ONLY 0.25-0.50"
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT. SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE
AREAS WILL SEE THE LEAST RAINFALL (WESTERN SLOPES...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM). CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER EITHER GIVEN SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE (<50 J/KG). THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL COMBINED WITH SNOW-MELT
AND LINGERING ICE ON AREA RIVERS MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOOD
ISSUES...SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT OF A FACTOR OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL JET OF 65-75 KNOTS AT 850MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 925MB MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND 25-35 MPH IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SOME CHANNELLING. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT AS STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION. THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER GAP WIND FLOW
WITH INVERSION LOCATED BELOW THE MOUNTAINTOP...AS NOTED BY LOW
FROUDE NUMBERS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INITIALLY AS PRECIPITATION MOVES
INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY 38-43F. NOT EXPECTING IT TO FALL ANY FURTHER
WITH STRONG SOUTH FLOW AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE.
WILL EVEN LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 40S AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES.
AS THE RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 4AM...MAY SEE PERIODS OF
LINGERING DRIZZLE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LASTING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DRY SLOT MOVING IN ALOFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY WILL START IN THE DRY SLOT WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT BACK TO THE WEST. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHILE IN THE DRY SLOT...MAY
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING...WHERE MIXING INCREASES AND SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE...WITH HIGHS NUDGING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT. SHOULD SEE 45-55F ELSEWHERE...COOLEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LIES...CLOSER TO LOW
TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT QUICK MOISTURE SURGE PRE-
FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS NUDGING CLOSE TO 50F IN A FEW AREAS. THIS
MAY LEAD TO SOME WEAK SURFACE-BASED CAPE (<100 J/KG) WHICH MAY LEAD
TO SOME CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL AND GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH CONTINUE.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN. LOOKING FOR LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
MORNING CLOUDS AND LINGERING NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO GRADUAL CLEARING DURING WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 40S.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST LATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER ON TAP FOR OUR
REGION AS SPRING WILL BE FELT IN FULL FORCE BY LATER IN THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST GLOBAL DETEMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REMAIN
LARGELY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL LEAN HEAVILY
TOWARD A CONSENSUS BLENDED SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL ADVERTISE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE/DRY WEATHER THEN
RETURNS BY FRIDAY WITH MEAN H5 HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW EVOLVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A RENEWED SHOWER THREAT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60...THOUGH EVEN MILDER SUN/MON (60S) AS MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF SLOWLY ADVANCING GREAT LAKES FRONT. INDEED...IF
GFS/EURO PROGGED 925 HPA TEMPS OF +15C DO OCCUR ON MONDAY...SOME
SPOTS COULD BE LOOKING AT READINGS NEARING 70F. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY 35 TO 45...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT (25 TO
35)...AND WARMER (40S) BY SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER DEEPER SOUTHERLY
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. CIGS INITIALLY VFR THROUGH 00Z...LOWERING TO A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR 00-06Z...THEN MVFR/IFR THEREAFTER. MAIN FOCUS OF STEADIER
RAINFALLWILL OCCUR IN THE 00-12Z TIME FRAME...AFTER WHICH PCPN
TRENDS MORE SCATTERED/SHOWERY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR TO OCCUR
AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS...MAINLY DURING THE 08-15Z TIME FRAME ON
TUESDAY. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF 40-60 KT OFF THE DECK COULD PROVE PROBLEMATIC...BUT
CONFIDENCE ONLY AVERAGE ON HOW MUCH OF THIS MIXES DOWN. ALSO A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS OFFERED BY LATEST RAP PROGS.
NONETHELESS...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE SOUTHEASTERLY LLWS
FROM 40-50 KT AT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. LIGHT RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. MORNING IFR/MVFR...TRENDING VFR
WITH OCCNL MVFR THEREAFTER.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
THURSDAY.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATE IN BANK RIVER RISES WITH ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY CREATE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING LATE
TONIGHT...TUESDAY...AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES MELTING THE SNOW PACK (SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OF
0.75-1.25" MELTED) AND EXPECTED QPF BETWEEN 0.25-1.0" WILL
CAUSE MODERATE RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS. A FEW ISOLATED ICE JAMS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP AND CAUSE ISOLATED AND MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING.
HOWEVER MAJOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...TABER/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE 20S...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON MONDAY
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 710 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO MENTION FLURRIES ACRS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MTNS THRU 15Z TODAY. ALSO...HAVE
INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS...BASED ON LATEST IR SATL
PICS. THESE LLVL CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 1
TO 3 HRS...WITH THE LAST TO CLR EXTREME NORTHEAST VT. STILL
ANTICIPATING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING
BEHIND S/W ENERGY AND BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. IR SATL CONTS
TO SHOW A SLOW EROSION OF LLVL CLOUDS ACRS OUR CWA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE RAP SOUNDINGS HANDLING THIS RH THE BEST. THIS
SUPPORTS CLOUDS ACRS NORTHERN VT AND THE NEK THRU 15Z
TODAY...BEFORE CLRING FINALLY DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT MIXING TO ABOUT 875MB TODAY AND INDICATE TEMPS BTWN 0 AND
-1C AT THIS LEVEL...ADDING 9 TO 10C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U 40S. HAVE NOTED MAVBTV ONLY 43 FOR TODAY...WL TREND 4 TO 5
DEGREES HIGHER...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH INFLUENCE OF FROZEN LAKE
WATERS ON WESTERLY FLW. FEEL GUIDANCE MAY THINK SNOW PACK IS STILL
ACRS THE CPV...BUT RECENT WARM TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY ERODE SNOW
COVERAGE IN THE IMMEDIATE CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT WL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THRU
MONDAY. HAVE NOTED IN THE 00Z GFS WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT AND SOME
MID LVL RH MOVING ACRS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL COOL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS COLDER VALLEYS TO M/U 20S CPV/SLV. WARMING 925MB
TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIDSLOPE THERMAL BELT WL BE
DEVELOPING WITH A RIBBON OF TEMPS IN THE U20S TO MID 30S POSSIBLE
BTWN 1500 AND 3000 FT TONIGHT. FCST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WL BE
TEMPS...WITH LLVL WAA CONTINUING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 0 AND 2C. THINKING WARMEST TEMPS WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES/CPV (AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN) AND PARTS OF THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS. IF WE WERE TO MIX TO 85H COMPLETELY HIGHS COULD APPROACH
60F IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT THINKING WITH HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTN TEMPS WL FALL JUST SHORT IN OUR WARMER
VALLEYS...MAINLY M/U 50S TO U40S/L50S ELSEWHERE.
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SHOW 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS QUICKLY SPREADING FROM
SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 21Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT AND LLVL WAA. IN ADDITION PWS SURGE BTWN 0.50
AND 0.75 AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING TO OUR WEST AND LATEST 00Z
NAM/GFS SHOWING PROGGED SE DOWNSLOPING 85H WINDS BTWN 65 AND 75
KNOTS AROUND 06Z TUES. STRONGEST WINDS ARE CLOSELY TIED WITH
HEAVIEST PRECIP...WHICH WL LIMIT MIXING BUT STILL COULD SEE GUSTS
TO 40 MPH OR SO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WL RESULT IN THE TYPICAL TRRN IMPACTED QPF FIELDS WITH HIGHEST
VALUES AROUND 0.50 ACRS THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS.
ELSEWHERE...QPF ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV WL BE SIMILAR TO OUR
LAST EVENT...BTWN 0.10 AND 0.20"...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACRS
THE SLV. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TWO HEAVIEST QPF
FIELDS SPLITTING OUR CWA...EITHER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE
MID/UPPER LVL DYNAMICS AND BETTER 25H JET OR TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WHERE PWS ARE HIGHER AND NOSE OF LLVL JET ENHANCES THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF
SCENARIO...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO ISSUES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE RISES FROM SNOW MELT ON MONDAY
AND EXPECTED QPF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
ICE JAM OR TWO ACRS OUR NORTHERN RIVERS...OTHERWISE NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. THE DURATION OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE BTWN 3 AND
6 HRS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT QUICKLY
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND PRECIP BECMS SCATTERED. SOME WET SNOW OR
SLEET WL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 2500 FT...BUT ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED...GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES. TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD WARM
BACK INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRNT. EXPECTING ANOTHER BRIEF
ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY BTWN 15Z AND 21Z
TUESDAY...BUT OVERALL RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND BEST
DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WL CONT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW
MELT...EVEN ACRS THE MID/UPPER ELEVATIONS...SO RIVERS WL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT SUNDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS
AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER UPSLOPE FAVORED NORTHERN
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. IT WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH AND GUSTY.
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S. RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH BRISK RETURN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA. MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 25 TO 35 DEGREES...BUT
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER BY 12Z. EXCEPTION
WILL BE SLK WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TILL ABOUT 10Z. DURING
SUNDAY...LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME SKC BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WNW 8-15 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN WEST 8-15 KTS SUNDAY. GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS SUNDAY
EVENING WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY INTO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE 20S...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON MONDAY
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING
BEHIND S/W ENERGY AND BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. IR SATL CONTS
TO SHOW A SLOW EROSION OF LLVL CLOUDS ACRS OUR CWA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE RAP SOUNDINGS HANDLING THIS RH THE BEST. THIS
SUPPORTS CLOUDS ACRS NORTHERN VT AND THE NEK THRU 15Z
TODAY...BEFORE CLRING FINALLY DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT MIXING TO ABOUT 875MB TODAY AND INDICATE TEMPS BTWN 0 AND
-1C AT THIS LEVEL...ADDING 9 TO 10C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U 40S. HAVE NOTED MAVBTV ONLY 43 FOR TODAY...WL TREND 4 TO 5
DEGREES HIGHER...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH INFLUENCE OF FROZEN LAKE
WATERS ON WESTERLY FLW. FEEL GUIDANCE MAY THINK SNOW PACK IS STILL
ACRS THE CPV...BUT RECENT WARM TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY ERODE SNOW
COVERAGE IN THE IMMEDIATE CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT WL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THRU
MONDAY. HAVE NOTED IN THE 00Z GFS WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT AND SOME
MID LVL RH MOVING ACRS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL COOL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS COLDER VALLEYS TO M/U 20S CPV/SLV. WARMING 925MB
TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIDSLOPE THERMAL BELT WL BE
DEVELOPING WITH A RIBBON OF TEMPS IN THE U20S TO MID 30S POSSIBLE
BTWN 1500 AND 3000 FT TONIGHT. FCST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WL BE
TEMPS...WITH LLVL WAA CONTINUING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 0 AND 2C. THINKING WARMEST TEMPS WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES/CPV (AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN) AND PARTS OF THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS. IF WE WERE TO MIX TO 85H COMPLETELY HIGHS COULD APPROACH
60F IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT THINKING WITH HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTN TEMPS WL FALL JUST SHORT IN OUR WARMER
VALLEYS...MAINLY M/U 50S TO U40S/L50S ELSEWHERE.
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SHOW 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS QUICKLY SPREADING FROM
SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 21Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT AND LLVL WAA. IN ADDITION PWS SURGE BTWN 0.50
AND 0.75 AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING TO OUR WEST AND LATEST 00Z
NAM/GFS SHOWING PROGGED SE DOWNSLOPING 85H WINDS BTWN 65 AND 75
KNOTS AROUND 06Z TUES. STRONGEST WINDS ARE CLOSELY TIED WITH
HEAVIEST PRECIP...WHICH WL LIMIT MIXING BUT STILL COULD SEE GUSTS
TO 40 MPH OR SO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WL RESULT IN THE TYPICAL TRRN IMPACTED QPF FIELDS WITH HIGHEST
VALUES AROUND 0.50 ACRS THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS.
ELSEWHERE...QPF ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV WL BE SIMILAR TO OUR
LAST EVENT...BTWN 0.10 AND 0.20"...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACRS
THE SLV. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TWO HEAVIEST QPF
FIELDS SPLITTING OUR CWA...EITHER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE
MID/UPPER LVL DYNAMICS AND BETTER 25H JET OR TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WHERE PWS ARE HIGHER AND NOSE OF LLVL JET ENHANCES THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF
SCENARIO...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO ISSUES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE RISES FROM SNOW MELT ON MONDAY
AND EXPECTED QPF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
ICE JAM OR TWO ACRS OUR NORTHERN RIVERS...OTHERWISE NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. THE DURATION OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE BTWN 3 AND
6 HRS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT QUICKLY
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND PRECIP BECMS SCATTERED. SOME WET SNOW OR
SLEET WL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 2500 FT...BUT ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED...GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES. TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD WARM
BACK INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRNT. EXPECTING ANOTHER BRIEF
ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY BTWN 15Z AND 21Z
TUESDAY...BUT OVERALL RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND BEST
DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WL CONT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW
MELT...EVEN ACRS THE MID/UPPER ELEVATIONS...SO RIVERS WL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT SUNDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS
AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER UPSLOPE FAVORED NORTHERN
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. IT WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH AND GUSTY.
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S. RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH BRISK RETURN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA. MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 25 TO 35 DEGREES...BUT
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER BY 12Z. EXCEPTION
WILL BE SLK WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TILL ABOUT 10Z. DURING
SUNDAY...LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME SKC BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WNW 8-15 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN WEST 8-15 KTS SUNDAY. GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS SUNDAY
EVENING WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY INTO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1101 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN OHIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF
CONVECTION OFFSHORE HAS LED TO A DETERIORATION OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD INLAND. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES REVEAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL
ECHOES FROM GEORGIA ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 00Z RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION OF
THE 950-500 MB LAYER BETWEEN 06-09Z (2 AM - 5 AM) ALONG THE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED AS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS
VIRTUALLY DISAPPEARED ACROSS ALL BUT THE WILMINGTON METRO AREA WHERE
UP TO 250 J/KG OF SBCAPE REMAINS. WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY PARAMETERS HAVE ALSO
DECREASED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ELEVATED IN NATURE...POSING A MUCH REDUCED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
CONCERN NOW SHIFTS TOWARD A POSSIBLE FLOODING SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST...AS AN EXTREMELY WET AIRMASS (PRECIP WATER AT THE
99TH PERCENTILE AT 1.80 INCHES) INTERACTS WITH A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED 200 MB JET STREAK. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH
AS 50 KNOTS AT 2500 FT/925 MB WILL FEED WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IN
FROM THE SOUTH. ELEVATED INSTABILITY CALCULATED ON RUC SOUNDINGS
AS HIGH AS 900 J/KG AT WILMINGTON...550 J/KG AT MYRTLE BEACH...AND
250 J/KG OVER FLORENCE SHOULD ADD HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. RAINFALL FROM
THIS POINT FORWARD SHOULD REACH UP TO ONE-HALF INCH INLAND AND
PERHAPS 1.50 INCHES ALONG THE NC COAST.
AN IN-SITU WEDGE DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY FROM SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
FALLING INTO RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THIS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE RIDGE
AND CREATED DIVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS COLD FRONT MOVING AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE GRAND STRAND
BEACHES. THIS WEDGE IS BREAKING DOWN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. LOOK
FOR SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE IN SPEED OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS AS A
LITTLE OF THAT 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB WORKS ITS WAY DOWN.
TEMPERATURES INLAND ARE AT THEIR LOWS NOW AND SHOULD RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES OVERNIGHT...WHILE AT THE COAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD SINK
DOWN TO THE MID 60S BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE FIRST PART OF TUE LOOKS WETTEST ALONG THE
COAST AS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY NOT PUSH OFFSHORE UNTIL TUE
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP WITH
HEATING OF THE DAY TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND N. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S OF THE AREA
TUE NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD LARGELY END THE RISK FOR CONVECTION. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFF THE COAST ON WED. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
BE ARRIVING UPSTAIRS...BUT WITH THE INCREASING INFLUX OF DRY
AIR...WILL KEEP POPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THRESHOLD TO ALLOW FOR
THE SMALL RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD WED NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLEST ON WED...MAINLY UPPER
60S. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST WED NIGHT...LOWER TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH MID WEEK. A DEEP NW FLOW OF COLD AND DRY AIR BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WED WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL BUT WARM
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET THE CAA TO BRING TEMPS NEAR 70. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OUT DOWN
CLOSER TO 40. RIDGE WILL BUILD UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO A
WARMING TREND. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS REACH INTO THE
70S ESPECIALLY ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON FRI ALLOWING
FOR A WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA COMING
UP AGAINST RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REACH ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR/IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
LOWERED CIGS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STEADY HEAVY RAINFALL. MVFR/IFR
WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR
THROUGH THE DAY WITH CONTINUING RAINFALL. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LINGERING
-RA/LOWERED CIGS POSSIBLE.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS MOST OF THE AREA ENGULFED IN
STEADY...HEAVY AT TIMES...RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VFR AT KCRE/KILM...BUT
EXPECT THESE TERMINALS TO TRANSITION TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS
RAIN AND LOWERED CIGS MOVE INTO THE AREA. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG THE NC COAST...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING KILM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM...AND IF TSRA DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS 10-15 KTS...WITH AN INTERMITTENT GUSTS
POSSIBLE. INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM IFR TO
MVFR...AS LOWERED CIGS AND LINGERING RAINFALL CONTINUES. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO POSSIBLY IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ALL DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL TRENDS AND LINGERING
LOWERED CIGS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AOB 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF CAPE
FEAR HAS DISRUPTED THE SMOOTH WIND FIELD...AND CURRENTLY OBSERVED
WINDS AT THE BEACHES AND OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT
5-15 KNOTS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOLIDLY SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. CONDITIONS
EAST OF CAPE FEAR MAY EVEN DETERIORATE FURTHER WITH 25 KNOT WINDS
POSSIBLE OUT BEYOND 10-15 MILES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS HAVEN`T BUDGED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD AS WELL LATER
TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...
WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH PREDICTED SPEEDS ALL AFTERNOON. THIS
HAS HAD A LARGE IMPACT ON SEA HEIGHTS WHICH ARE RUNNING 2-3 FEET
BELOW PRIOR PROJECTIONS. OF ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE AVAILABLE TO
US...ONLY THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. A COLD WEDGE AIRMASS INLAND PUSHED A COLD FRONT ALMOST
DOWN TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COLD AIR
WEDGE IS NOW BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN...AND WE MAY BE SEEING THE
BEGINNING OF A SUSTAINED INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH SHOULD
CULMINATE IN 15-20 KTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP AS EXPECTED...SEAS WILL FINALLY BUILD TOWARD 6 FT OUT
BEYOND 10-15 MILES FROM SHORE. FOR THIS REASON THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD FILL IN
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...
WARM FRONT WHICH LIFTED WELL NW OF THE WATERS EARLIER TODAY...IS
SLOWLY BEING PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
WATERS...LEAVING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF TURN TO THE NW WITHIN THE INNER WATERS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 KTS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...WHILE VEERING SLIGHTLY
TO THE SW...BECOMING SW AT 15-25 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE
SEAS UPWARD FROM THEIR CURRENT 2-3 FT...TO 5-8 FT LATE TONIGHT.
WHILE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED YET
TODAY...STILL EXPECT THEM TO RETURN THIS EVENING...AND THUS THE
ONGOING MWW FOR SCA REMAINS UNCHANGED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUE WITH 6 FT SEA PERHAPS LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W TUE EVE AND THEN TO NNW BY WED MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL PEAK AROUND 20 KT...STRONGEST TUE INTO WED...THEN
SUBSIDING IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERLY SURGE...TO LESS THAN 10 KT
WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON TUE...UP TO 6 TO 8 FT. SEAS
WILL STEADILY SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD SURGE...TO 3 FT OR
LESS WED NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STRONG N-NW WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WED BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING
SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL
DROP BELOW 3 FT BY WED NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THURS AS THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF SHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
950 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT
WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SETTLE
OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...
REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS IS RATHER COMPLICATED THIS EVENING...WITH
A LINGERING TRUE WEDGE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...A
RETREATING WARM FROM SLOWLY PENETRATING INTO THE PIEDMONT...A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST...AND THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. CURRENTLY...ALL
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH JUST
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. REGIONAL RADAR SUGGESTS THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THIS BIG QUESTION FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO A
SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT....WHERE THE LATEST RAP
RUNS SHOW 300-400 J/KG MLCAPE...AIDED BY A POCKET STEEPENING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...REDEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FORCING FOR ACCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE AIDED BY
INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
MAKE A MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH EAST. HRRR RUNS HAVE YET TO SHOW ANY
REDEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. SHOWERS ARE ALSO KICKING UP OVER
UPSTATE SC IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT. DRYING MID-LEVEL AIR ANALYZED AT 700MB SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORM LIMITED...BUT IT SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE THAT AN UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...EITHER WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF SC...OR WITH A
FORCED LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT.
FOR THE FORECASTS UPDATE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...WITH LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. WILL ALSO ADJUST
TEMPS TO REFLECT THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT. -SMITH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MID MORNING...
EXPECT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE GFS
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF CENTRAL NC UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HEIGHT RISES
TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA UNDER BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALSO FORECAST OVER THE AREA. A
MODEST 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WHILE K INDICES FALL LATE IN THE DAY FROM NEAR 20 TO AROUND ZERO BY
NIGHTFALL. JET SUPPORT BY WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY MODEST 850MB LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS. LIFTED INDICES
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST
KM HARDLY REGISTERS ON THE GFS...1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE
STEEP EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AT OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN
7.5C/KM. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ALOFT IS WEAK...INCREASING
AROUND 700MB BY 00Z...BUT FOR THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THEN...IN THE COOL
TROUGH ALOFT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING STABILITY
WITH AN INCREASING CAP ALOFT DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY
SHOWER DIURNAL IN NATURE. FORTUNATELY...DESPITE THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...WINDS ALOFT TO 700MB ARE MAINLY AT
OR BELOW 25KT...AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN VOLUME...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY VERY GUSTY WIND WITH A SHOWER IS CURRENTLY LOW.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES FOR WEDNESDAY SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
MID 60S...AND WITH THE COOL TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DECOUPLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE...AND
THE AIR MASS BECOMES RATHER DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF KFAY. UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE AT NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL EXISTS...AND HAVE CONTINUED A TREND COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...MOSTLY 37 TO 42. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR
REMAINS EXPECTED...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER
SOME AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT U.S. 64 AND COULD BE ADDED TO
LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING TROUGHINESS ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE GFS IS WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
THE WAVE ALOFT AND THE FRONT...THOUGH BOTH MODELS...IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCREASE SURFACE
RIDGING WEST OVER THE GULF SLIGHTLY SUCH THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE MAY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. REGARDLESS OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES...BOTH MODELS SUPPORT WEAKENING
OF THE FRONT SO THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE LOW AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE DAY WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WILL RETAIN THE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AND
DRIER AIR FORECAST BY THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE WILL KEEP CHANCES BELOW
SLIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENTLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS MONDAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS DUE TO A DEEPER UPPER LOW AS A RESULT OF SOME
PHASING OF MODERATE WAVES IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...INTRODUCING GOOD QPF INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. EVEN THE ECMWF...WITH
A FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC...SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
TWO MONDAY...THOUGH WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST
BEYOND THIS LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
CURRENTLY WILL BE TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND GENERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE SYNOPTIC-SCALE DIFFERENCES IN PARTS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THE MOS GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE MEX AND MEE ARE VERY SIMILAR
AND ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS BASED UPON 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST AROUND 70
THURSDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE REST OF THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S THURSDAY NIGHT...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO LOWS TO AROUND 60 MONDAY
NIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THEN TOWARD
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE NORTHWESTERN SITES WILL
BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TOUGH FORECAST
AS FAR AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES GO TONIGHT...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AND
MOST SITES MAY BE JUMPING AROUND BETWEEN IFR AND VFR. ONE FACTOR IN
THIS IS THAT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY GUSTY OVERNIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20 KTS...WHICH COULD HELP
CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE LOWER CEILINGS TEMPORARILY BUT WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA LOW
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL FAIR A LITTLE BETTER BUT SOME SITES COULD
SEE A DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT VARIOUS POINTS OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY RISE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. EASTERN
SITES WILL HOLD ON TO LOWER CEILINGS LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAT
NORTHWESTERN SITES. GUSTS TO 15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER. KRWI IS STILL HAVING
EQUIPMENT ISSUES AND SO AMENDMENTS ARE NOT SCHEDULED FOR THE SITE
BUT REGULAR TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELEASED EVERY 6 HRS.
LONG TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING AVIATION CONDITIONS....OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KCP/DJF
NEAR TERM...KCP/SMITH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH PARTS
OF THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW...ANALYZED OVER WESTERN KY AT
15Z...WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE WEDGE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN...ADVECTING
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND IMPINGING UPON THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY. THE GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT ACROSS THE
BOUNDARIES IS APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES IN LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE WEDGE REMAIN IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES...AND IF
THE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING...HIGHS FROM THE
TRIAD TO THE TRIANGLE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THAT
WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT CAN ERODE THE
WEDGE...AND IF SO...HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST IT WILL DO SO. OF ALL THE
HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...THE LATEST (15Z) HRRR IS
HANDLING THE CURRENT RAINFALL THE BEST. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE
RAINFALL COVERAGE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...BUT IS MARGINAL AT BEST...WHILE THE BEST BULK SHEAR (40-
50 KTS) AND 0-1 SRH (300-400 M2/S2) IS WITHIN THE WEDGE. POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...MAINLY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT/WEDGE BOUNDARY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. IF THE HRRR
RAINFALL FORECAST PANS OUT...THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA COULD GET 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN...LOCALLY HIGHER...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO WHAT THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH RECEIVED EARLIER TODAY. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THAT MUCH RAIN FALLS...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS. OVERNIGHT THE
RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AND/OR MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD START TO CROSS
CENTRAL NC AROUND MIDNIGHT. THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OF THESE
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE TIMING
IS NOT FAVORABLE AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THE PRECEDING RAINFALL
WILL ACT TO SUFFICIENTLY STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY ERODE THE WEDGE OVERNIGHT...BUT HOW FAR EAST IT
PROGRESSES BEFORE SUNRISE WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPS. FOR NOW EXPECT
LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO LOW 60S SE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MID MORNING...
EXPECT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE GFS
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF CENTRAL NC UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HEIGHT RISES
TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA UNDER BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALSO FORECAST OVER THE AREA. A
MODEST 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WHILE K INDICES FALL LATE IN THE DAY FROM NEAR 20 TO AROUND ZERO BY
NIGHTFALL. JET SUPPORT BY WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY MODEST 850MB LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS. LIFTED INDICES
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST
KM HARDLY REGISTERS ON THE GFS...1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE
STEEP EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AT OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN
7.5C/KM. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ALOFT IS WEAK...INCREASING
AROUND 700MB BY 00Z...BUT FOR THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THEN...IN THE COOL
TROUGH ALOFT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING STABILITY
WITH AN INCREASING CAP ALOFT DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY
SHOWER DIURNAL IN NATURE. FORTUNATELY...DESPITE THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...WINDS ALOFT TO 700MB ARE MAINLY AT
OR BELOW 25KT...AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN VOLUME...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY VERY GUSTY WIND WITH A SHOWER IS CURRENTLY LOW.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES FOR WEDNESDAY SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
MID 60S...AND WITH THE COOL TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DECOUPLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE...AND
THE AIR MASS BECOMES RATHER DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF KFAY. UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE AT NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL EXISTS...AND HAVE CONTINUED A TREND COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...MOSTLY 37 TO 42. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR
REMAINS EXPECTED...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER
SOME AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT U.S. 64 AND COULD BE ADDED TO
LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING TROUGHINESS ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE GFS IS WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
THE WAVE ALOFT AND THE FRONT...THOUGH BOTH MODELS...IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCREASE SURFACE
RIDGING WEST OVER THE GULF SLIGHTLY SUCH THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE MAY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. REGARDLESS OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES...BOTH MODELS SUPPORT WEAKENING
OF THE FRONT SO THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE LOW AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE DAY WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WILL RETAIN THE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AND
DRIER AIR FORECAST BY THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE WILL KEEP CHANCES BELOW
SLIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENTLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS MONDAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS DUE TO A DEEPER UPPER LOW AS A RESULT OF SOME
PHASING OF MODERATE WAVES IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...INTRODUCING GOOD QPF INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. EVEN THE ECMWF...WITH
A FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC...SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
TWO MONDAY...THOUGH WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST
BEYOND THIS LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
CURRENTLY WILL BE TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND GENERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE SYNOPTIC-SCALE DIFFERENCES IN PARTS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THE MOS GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE MEX AND MEE ARE VERY SIMILAR
AND ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS BASED UPON 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST AROUND 70
THURSDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE REST OF THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S THURSDAY NIGHT...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO LOWS TO AROUND 60 MONDAY
NIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THEN TOWARD
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE NORTHWESTERN SITES WILL
BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TOUGH FORECAST
AS FAR AS FLIGHT CATEGORIES GO TONIGHT...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AND
MOST SITES MAY BE JUMPING AROUND BETWEEN IFR AND VFR. ONE FACTOR IN
THIS IS THAT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY GUSTY OVERNIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20 KTS...WHICH COULD HELP
CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE LOWER CEILINGS TEMPORARILY BUT WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA LOW
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL FAIR A LITTLE BETTER BUT SOME SITES COULD
SEE A DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT VARIOUS POINTS OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY RISE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. EASTERN
SITES WILL HOLD ON TO LOWER CEILINGS LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAT
NORTHWESTERN SITES. GUSTS TO 15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER. KRWI IS STILL HAVING
EQUIPMENT ISSUES AND SO AMENDMENTS ARE NOT SCHEDULED FOR THE SITE
BUT REGULAR TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELEASED EVERY 6 HRS.
LONG TERM: A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING AVIATION CONDITIONS....OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KCP/DJF
NEAR TERM...KCP
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
743 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN OHIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING THE RISK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED AS
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS VIRTUALLY DISAPPEARED ACROSS ALL BUT
THE WILMINGTON METRO AREA WHERE UP TO 250 J/KG OF SBCAPE REMAINS.
WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY
PARAMETERS HAVE ALSO DECREASED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...POSING A MUCH
REDUCED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
CONCERN NOW SHIFTS TOWARD A POSSIBLE FLOODING SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST...AS AN EXTREMELY WET AIRMASS (PRECIP WATER AT THE
99TH PERCENTILE AT 1.80 INCHES) INTERACTS WITH A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED 200 MB JET STREAK. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH
AS 50 KNOTS AT 2500 FT/925 MB WILL FEED WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IN
FROM THE SOUTH. ELEVATED INSTABILITY CALCULATED ON RUC SOUNDINGS
AS HIGH AS 900 J/KG AT WILMINGTON...550 J/KG AT MYRTLE BEACH...AND
250 J/KG OVER FLORENCE SHOULD ADD HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. RAINFALL FROM
THIS POINT FORWARD SHOULD REACH UP TO ONE-HALF INCH INLAND AND
PERHAPS 1.50 INCHES ALONG THE NC COAST.
AN IN-SITU WEDGE DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY FROM SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
FALLING INTO RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THIS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE RIDGE
AND CREATED DIVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS COLD FRONT MOVING AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE GRAND STRAND
BEACHES. THIS WEDGE IS BREAKING DOWN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. LOOK
FOR SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE IN SPEED OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS AS A
LITTLE OF THAT 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 925 MB WORKS ITS WAY DOWN.
TEMPERATURES INLAND ARE AT THEIR LOWS NOW AND SHOULD RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES OVERNIGHT...WHILE AT THE COAST TEMPERATURES SHOULD SINK
DOWN TO THE MID 60S BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE FIRST PART OF TUE LOOKS WETTEST ALONG THE
COAST AS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY NOT PUSH OFFSHORE UNTIL TUE
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP WITH
HEATING OF THE DAY TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND N. THE FRONT WILL PUSH S OF THE AREA
TUE NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD LARGELY END THE RISK FOR CONVECTION. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFF THE COAST ON WED. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
BE ARRIVING UPSTAIRS...BUT WITH THE INCREASING INFLUX OF DRY
AIR...WILL KEEP POPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THRESHOLD TO ALLOW FOR
THE SMALL RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD WED NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLEST ON WED...MAINLY UPPER
60S. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST WED NIGHT...LOWER TO MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH MID WEEK. A DEEP NW FLOW OF COLD AND DRY AIR BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WED WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL BUT WARM
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET THE CAA TO BRING TEMPS NEAR 70. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OUT DOWN
CLOSER TO 40. RIDGE WILL BUILD UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THURS INTO
FRI AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO A
WARMING TREND. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS REACH INTO THE
70S ESPECIALLY ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON FRI ALLOWING
FOR A WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA COMING
UP AGAINST RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REACH ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MVFR/IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
LOWERED CIGS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STEADY HEAVY RAINFALL. MVFR/IFR
WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR
THROUGH THE DAY WITH CONTINUING RAINFALL. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LINGERING
-RA/LOWERED CIGS POSSIBLE.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS MOST OF THE AREA ENGULFED IN
STEADY...HEAVY AT TIMES...RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VFR AT KCRE/KILM...BUT
EXPECT THESE TERMINALS TO TRANSITION TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS
RAIN AND LOWERED CIGS MOVE INTO THE AREA. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG THE NC COAST...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING KILM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM...AND IF TSRA DOES
DEVELOP IT WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS 10-15 KTS...WITH AN INTERMITTENT GUSTS
POSSIBLE. INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM IFR TO
MVFR...AS LOWERED CIGS AND LINGERING RAINFALL CONTINUES. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO POSSIBLY IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ALL DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL TRENDS AND LINGERING
LOWERED CIGS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AOB 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY.
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH PREDICTED
SPEEDS ALL AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HAD A LARGE IMPACT ON SEA HEIGHTS
WHICH ARE RUNNING 2-3 FEET BELOW PRIOR PROJECTIONS. OF ALL THE
MODEL GUIDANCE AVAILABLE TO US...ONLY THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A
REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. A COLD WEDGE AIRMASS
INLAND PUSHED A COLD FRONT ALMOST DOWN TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COLD AIR WEDGE IS NOW BEGINNING TO
BREAK DOWN...AND WE MAY BE SEEING THE BEGINNING OF A SUSTAINED
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH SHOULD CULMINATE IN 15-20 KTS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SHOULD THIS DEVELOP AS
EXPECTED...SEAS WILL FINALLY BUILD TOWARD 6 FT OUT BEYOND 10-15
MILES FROM SHORE. FOR THIS REASON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD FILL IN
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...
WARM FRONT WHICH LIFTED WELL NW OF THE WATERS EARLIER TODAY...IS
SLOWLY BEING PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
WATERS...LEAVING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF TURN TO THE NW WITHIN THE INNER WATERS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 10 KTS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...WHILE VEERING SLIGHTLY
TO THE SW...BECOMING SW AT 15-25 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE
SEAS UPWARD FROM THEIR CURRENT 2-3 FT...TO 5-8 FT LATE TONIGHT.
WHILE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED YET
TODAY...STILL EXPECT THEM TO RETURN THIS EVENING...AND THUS THE
ONGOING MWW FOR SCA REMAINS UNCHANGED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUE WITH 6 FT SEA PERHAPS LINGERING INTO TUE NIGHT. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W TUE EVE AND THEN TO NNW BY WED MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL PEAK AROUND 20 KT...STRONGEST TUE INTO WED...THEN
SUBSIDING IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERLY SURGE...TO LESS THAN 10 KT
WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON TUE...UP TO 6 TO 8 FT. SEAS
WILL STEADILY SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD SURGE...TO 3 FT OR
LESS WED NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STRONG N-NW WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON WED BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING
SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL
DROP BELOW 3 FT BY WED NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THURS AS THE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF SHORE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1136 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF SWIFT CURRENT
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SNAKING INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT IN MOUNTRAIL COUNTY MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING
WITH TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED IN NORTHEAST MONTANA.
BOWMAN RADAR WAS INDICATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST BUT BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS ALOFT AND NOT REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
CONTINUE THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTRY
MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL IN THE NORTH. THE HRRR IS
ADVERTISING POTENTIAL OF FOG INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
WITH SATURATION HAVING ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED THERE AND A CALM WIND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER RUGBY...FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. THUS HAVE
EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG INTO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE ABOVE.
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
LATE EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER/TEMPS. A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN PERSISTING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF
FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...DUE TO FAVORABLE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LIGHT WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
EARLY EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS.
LOWERED MINS TONIGHT SLIGHTLY BASED ON IMPACTS OF MOST SUBSTANTIAL
SNOW COVER DURING THE DAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX CAN`T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE SHOWER CHANCES YET THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM AROUND GARRISON AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THERE HAS BEEN GROUND TRUTH WITH SHOWERS
REPORTED AT KMOT...KMIB AND K08D...AND 0.01 AT KMOT. SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS AREA AS IT
MOVES EAST...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP A BIT AS IT MOVES
INTO DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. ANYWAY...KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA COULD KEEP CHANCES
LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH SOME POPS
ALREADY THERE...WILL KEEP THE MENTION GOING...ALTHOUGH WOULD
EXPECT STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE MAKING IT HARD FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT AFTER EARLY EVENING.
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. MOST FAVORED
AREAS LOOK TO BE OVER AND NEAR THE SNOW PACK WHERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTEST. EXPECT A LITTLE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE WEST...THUS WILL LIMIT PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL...OVER SNOW PACK. IF WINDS DO DIMINISH MORE
IN THE SOUTHWEST...COULD SEE FOG HERE AS WELL...WITH DEEPEST SNOW
REMAINING OVER THIS AREA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE GREATER...WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER MOST AREAS AND INCREASING LAPSE RATES
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH...THUS KEPT THE PREVIOUS
BROAD BRUSH FOR MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE...KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM. FIRST WE WILL SEE A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL CANADIAN HIGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
REGARDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...50S MONDAY...WARMING TO 55-65
TUESDAY. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
MOST AREAS AND APPROACHING 70 FAR SOUTH. THEN 50S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH 45-55 FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
AN ISOLD WINTRY MIX IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN FAR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT THE CHANCE OF ANY IMPACTS TO KISN/KMOT ARE LOW.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. KBIS/KJMS ARE
FAVORED FOR OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH RECENT SNOWMELT AND LIGHT
WINDS...SO HAVE ADDED AN EARLY MORNING TEMPO GROUPS. LATER SUNDAY
MORNING...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 20KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES AT KISN/KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
632 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING
STORM ON THE GULF COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING VIS SATL IMAGERY SHOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL PA WITH JUST A BIT OF CIRRUS IN SPOTS. HIGH LVL WAA AHEAD
OF DEEPENING MISS VALL TROF WILL SPREAD INCREASING CIRRUS ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER DARK. HOW QUICKLY CIRRUS SHIELD ARRIVES WILL
DETERMINE HOW COLD IT GETS TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING BASED ON
UPSTREAM SATL TRENDS AND RAP OUTPUT...IS THAT CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
BTWN 01Z-04Z OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...BUT REMAIN THIN ENOUGH FOR
ADDITIONAL RAD COOLING AND MIN TEMPS IN THE L30S.
LATEST MDL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH DAWN OVR
THE ENTIRE AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z ACROSS
THE S TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT AS A DEVELOPING STORM TAKES AIM AT THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN
TO THE AREA. THE NOSE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SSE LLJ WILL BE
SURGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PUSHING AN AREA
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS INTO THE REGION. ENSEMBLE PLUMES SUGGEST
A WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN ON THE ORDER OF .50" TO 1.00"
STARTING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTH...AND REACHING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
WE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY COLD AIR DAMMED MONDAY...SO TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT AND
BECOME MAINLY ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO SWING EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BEHIND THE
MONDAYS RAIN-MAKER...AND STICK AROUND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES BY.
THURSDAY LOOKS MILD AND MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BLEEDING ACROSS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A GUSTY SW FLOW SHOULD
HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A
BROAD COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE REGION. WITH A LITTLE
PUSH FROM THIS SECOND FRONT...THE MAIN INITIAL FRONT WILL
HOPEFULLY PUSH SOUTH OF PA...LOWERING THE POPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MOVE IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SRLY FLOW MOVING INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...ALLOWING FOR FAIR WEATHER AND A CHANCE AT ANOTHER WARM UP.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE DRY...SUNNY AFT. VFR WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLDS.
21Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN LOWER AND
THICKEN RAPIDLY DURING MONDAY AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST
OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH RAIN...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z MONDAY....AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LOOK FOR RESTRICTED FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY-MID DAY
TUESDAY...BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SHOWERS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TUESDAY...WITH MANY AREAS RETURNING TO
VFR DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WESTERN MOUNTAINS...KJST
UP THROUGH KBFD...MAY CONTINUE WITH LOWER CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY IN THE COOL- MOIST NW FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
.TUE...MVFR WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS N/W. MVFR TO VFR CNTRL-EAST.
.WED...MAINLY VFR.
.THU...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
539 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING
STORM ON THE GULF COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING VIS SATL IMAGERY SHOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL PA WITH JUST A BIT OF CIRRUS IN SPOTS. HIGH LVL WAA AHEAD
OF DEEPENING MISS VALL TROF WILL SPREAD INCREASING CIRRUS ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER DARK. HOW QUICKLY CIRRUS SHIELD ARRIVES WILL
DETERMINE HOW COLD IT GETS TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING BASED ON
UPSTREAM SATL TRENDS AND RAP OUTPUT...IS THAT CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
BTWN 01Z-04Z OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...BUT REMAIN THIN ENOUGH FOR
ADDITIONAL RAD COOLING AND MIN TEMPS IN THE L30S.
LATEST MDL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH DAWN OVR
THE ENTIRE AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z ACROSS
THE S TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT AS A DEVELOPING STORM TAKES AIM AT THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN
TO THE AREA. THE NOSE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SSE LLJ WILL BE
SURGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PUSHING AN AREA
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS INTO THE REGION. ENSEMBLE PLUMES SUGGEST
A WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN ON THE ORDER OF .50" TO 1.00"
STARTING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTH...AND REACHING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
WE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY COLD AIR DAMMED MONDAY...SO TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT AND
BECOME MAINLY ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO SWING EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BEHIND THE
MONDAYS RAIN-MAKER...AND STICK AROUND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES BY.
THURSDAY LOOKS MILD AND MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BLEEDING ACROSS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A GUSTY SW FLOW SHOULD
HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A
BROAD COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE REGION. WITH A LITTLE
PUSH FROM THIS SECOND FRONT...THE MAIN INITIAL FRONT WILL
HOPEFULLY PUSH SOUTH OF PA...LOWERING THE POPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MOVE IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SRLY FLOW MOVING INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...ALLOWING FOR FAIR WEATHER AND A CHANCE AT ANOTHER WARM UP.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN LOWER AND
THICKEN RAPIDLY DURING MONDAY AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST
OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH RAIN...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z MONDAY....AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LOOK FOR RESTRICTED FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY-MID DAY
TUESDAY...BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SHOWERS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TUESDAY...WITH MANY AREAS RETURNING TO
VFR DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WESTERN MOUNTAINS...KJST
UP THROUGH KBFD...MAY CONTINUE WITH LOWER CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY IN THE COOL- MOIST NW FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
.TUE...MVFR WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS N/W. MVFR TO VFR CNTRL-EAST.
.WED...MAINLY VFR.
.THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1052 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE AIR OF COURSE IS VERY UNSTABLE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS WITH THE HEATING...AND SUPPORT FROM THE
UPPER WAVE WILL KEEP SOME OF THE HIGHER BASED CONVECTION GOING THIS
EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING STEADILY FROM THE WEST AS THE
LOSS OF HEATING COMBINES WITH THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT. AS WE HAVE BEEN
MENTIONING...NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED AND BRIEF 45
MPH GUST AND/OR SMALL HAIL EVENT POSSIBLE. CURRENT TIMING
EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR ACTIVITY TO BE GONE AROUND 06Z/1 AM CDT BUT
MAY SLOW THAT DOWN A TAD IN THE FAR EAST IF LATEST HRRR INDICATIONS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR STEADILY FROM THE
WEST DURING THE NIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP OFF.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY...WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION HIGH AND
SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT THE DRY AIR AND GREATER STABILITY WILL PRECLUDE
THE LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
REVITALIZED WITH HEATING UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GOING
FOR WITH 50S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN A BIT EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG AND DRIFTING EAST OF I29...BUT SOON A STRONGER RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WITH FLOW DIRECTION AND
STRENGTH OF GRADIENT...WINDS ALOFT COULD ATTEMPT TO SURFACE TO A
GREATER DEGREE ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS LIKELY THE WARMEST OVERALL DAY IN LAST SIX
MONTHS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY TO PUSH TOWARD 80 DEGREES IN
THE JAMES TO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
SUPPORT THE WARM TEMPS...ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW
DIRECTION WHICH IS A SOLID MATCH FOR EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY
WARMEST MAX. ONE PLACE WHERE GUIDANCE SEEMINGLY COMES UP SHORT IS
ON DEWPOINTS...AND WITH GREAT MIXING DEPTHS INDICATED ON ALL
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WOULD SUPPORT MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. LOWERED QUITE A BIT IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...
AND THIS HAS CREATED SOME GREATER CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER /SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW/.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WAVE CRASHING THE RIDGE WILL CLIP BETTER
DYNAMICS ACROSS THEN NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. OVERALL...THE
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY...WITH ANY DECENT MOISTURE
COMING IN WITH MID LEVEL FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
BY THIS TIME...HAS BECOME EVEN MORE DRY AT LOW LEVELS...AND
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...WILL PROBABLY HAVE MUCH MORE
RETURNS ON RADAR THAN ACTUALLY REACH THE SURFACE. HAVE CONTINUED
FAIRLY LOW POPS MAXIMIZING NORTHEAST VERSUS SOUTHWEST GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF WAS JUST A BIT MORE UNSTABLE...WOULD
ENTERTAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS.
THURSDAY ANOTHER FAIRLY BREEZY DAY...WITH MOST OF THE WINDS DUE TO
GOOD MIXING ENVIRONMENT. LOW DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN ENHANCE CONCERN
WITH FIRE BEHAVIOR. CONSERVATIVE MIXING YIELDS A LOT OF MID 50S TO
NEAR 60...AND HAVE NUDGED JUST A BIT ABOVE THIS DUE TO THE GREAT
MIXING CONDITIONS. WEAK WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHER THAN A FEW
MORE CLOUDS HAVE LEFT DRY FOR THE TIME.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AGAIN REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY...AND AGAIN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS LOOK TO BRING UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BACK TO THE AREA. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAPID NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE WAVES THROUGH THE REGION
WITH THE NEXT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY...BUT BY LATER IN THE
NIGHT MAY GET ENOUGH ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN TON INTERACT WITH
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY TO GET A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA. SATURDAY IS AN INTERESTING DAY AS A BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. POTENTIAL THAT LEADING WAVE
COULD SET UP A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
THAT WILL FOCUS SOMETHING MORE INSTABILITY DRIVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHILE COLD FRONT IS MORE INERT BACK
BETWEEN I29 AND THE JAMES RIVER. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT HAVE
SPREAD OUT POPS A BIT MORE THAN WOULD NORMALLY DO. ALSO...THIS
OPENS UP POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO GET QUITE WARM BETWEEN THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...WHERE SOME 925 HPA TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BRING
CHANCES FOR 70S BACK. WOULD CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THIS FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE SHEAR WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID
LEVEL FLOW...AND SOME POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE LOWER LEVELS
NEAR THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH.
FAIRLY MINIMAL AGREEMENT IN LARGER SCALE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT TRENDING TOWARD A MORE COHERENT TROUGHINESS BY
MONDAY. THIS WOULD AGREE SOMEWHAT WITH GFS IS ONLY SLOWED BY A
12-24H PERIOD. TEMPS COULD END UP SOMEWHAT COLDER ON MONDAY GIVEN
A STRAIGHT ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION...LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS.
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST THAT WAVE HANGING BACK IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WOULD START TO PULL NORTHWARD AS SHARPER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY..SLOWING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
ENHANCING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT COOLING ALONG WITH PRECIP...WITH PERHAPS
A LITTLE CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURRING AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT...UNLIKE THE
GFS WHICH GOES ALL IN FOR A MIX OR CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF
PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE TIME...
HAVE WEIGHTED ECMWF SOLUTION QUITE A BIT MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A POTENTIAL FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A CLASSIC MIXING DAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP MIXING LIKELY DRIVING
DEWPOINTS QUITE LOW. AT THIS TIME...LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT EAST...TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT MISSOURI AND JAMES VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR...AND WILL BE REEVALUATING FOR
A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON MID SHIFT. THURSDAY WILL ALSO
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH AGAIN SOME
MARGINALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...AND DRY DEWPOINTS KNOCKING
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT MANY AREAS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
655 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE AIR OF COURSE IS VERY UNSTABLE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS WITH THE HEATING...AND SUPPORT FROM THE
UPPER WAVE WILL KEEP SOME OF THE HIGHER BASED CONVECTION GOING THIS
EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING STEADILY FROM THE WEST AS THE
LOSS OF HEATING COMBINES WITH THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT. AS WE HAVE BEEN
MENTIONING...NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED AND BRIEF 45
MPH GUST AND/OR SMALL HAIL EVENT POSSIBLE. CURRENT TIMING
EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR ACTIVITY TO BE GONE AROUND 06Z/1 AM CDT BUT
MAY SLOW THAT DOWN A TAD IN THE FAR EAST IF LATEST HRRR INDICATIONS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR STEADILY FROM THE
WEST DURING THE NIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP OFF.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUNNY...WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION HIGH AND
SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT THE DRY AIR AND GREATER STABILITY WILL PRECLUDE
THE LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
REVITALIZED WITH HEATING UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GOING
FOR WITH 50S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
WINDS SHOULD LAY DOWN A BIT EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG AND DRIFTING EAST OF I29...BUT SOON A STRONGER RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WITH FLOW DIRECTION AND
STRENGTH OF GRADIENT...WINDS ALOFT COULD ATTEMPT TO SURFACE TO A
GREATER DEGREE ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS LIKELY THE WARMEST OVERALL DAY IN LAST SIX
MONTHS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY TO PUSH TOWARD 80 DEGREES IN
THE JAMES TO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
SUPPORT THE WARM TEMPS...ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW
DIRECTION WHICH IS A SOLID MATCH FOR EXTREME EVENT CLIMATOLOGY
WARMEST MAX. ONE PLACE WHERE GUIDANCE SEEMINGLY COMES UP SHORT IS
ON DEWPOINTS...AND WITH GREAT MIXING DEPTHS INDICATED ON ALL
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WOULD SUPPORT MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. LOWERED QUITE A BIT IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...
AND THIS HAS CREATED SOME GREATER CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER /SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW/.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WAVE CRASHING THE RIDGE WILL CLIP BETTER
DYNAMICS ACROSS THEN NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. OVERALL...THE
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY...WITH ANY DECENT MOISTURE
COMING IN WITH MID LEVEL FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE NIGHT.
BY THIS TIME...HAS BECOME EVEN MORE DRY AT LOW LEVELS...AND
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...WILL PROBABLY HAVE MUCH MORE
RETURNS ON RADAR THAN ACTUALLY REACH THE SURFACE. HAVE CONTINUED
FAIRLY LOW POPS MAXIMIZING NORTHEAST VERSUS SOUTHWEST GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF WAS JUST A BIT MORE UNSTABLE...WOULD
ENTERTAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS.
THURSDAY ANOTHER FAIRLY BREEZY DAY...WITH MOST OF THE WINDS DUE TO
GOOD MIXING ENVIRONMENT. LOW DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN ENHANCE CONCERN
WITH FIRE BEHAVIOR. CONSERVATIVE MIXING YIELDS A LOT OF MID 50S TO
NEAR 60...AND HAVE NUDGED JUST A BIT ABOVE THIS DUE TO THE GREAT
MIXING CONDITIONS. WEAK WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHER THAN A FEW
MORE CLOUDS HAVE LEFT DRY FOR THE TIME.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AGAIN REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY...AND AGAIN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS LOOK TO BRING UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BACK TO THE AREA. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAPID NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE WAVES THROUGH THE REGION
WITH THE NEXT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY...BUT BY LATER IN THE
NIGHT MAY GET ENOUGH ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN TON INTERACT WITH
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY TO GET A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA. SATURDAY IS AN INTERESTING DAY AS A BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. POTENTIAL THAT LEADING WAVE
COULD SET UP A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
THAT WILL FOCUS SOMETHING MORE INSTABILITY DRIVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHILE COLD FRONT IS MORE INERT BACK
BETWEEN I29 AND THE JAMES RIVER. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT HAVE
SPREAD OUT POPS A BIT MORE THAN WOULD NORMALLY DO. ALSO...THIS
OPENS UP POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO GET QUITE WARM BETWEEN THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...WHERE SOME 925 HPA TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BRING
CHANCES FOR 70S BACK. WOULD CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THIS FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE SHEAR WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID
LEVEL FLOW...AND SOME POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE LOWER LEVELS
NEAR THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH.
FAIRLY MINIMAL AGREEMENT IN LARGER SCALE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT TRENDING TOWARD A MORE COHERENT TROUGHINESS BY
MONDAY. THIS WOULD AGREE SOMEWHAT WITH GFS IS ONLY SLOWED BY A
12-24H PERIOD. TEMPS COULD END UP SOMEWHAT COLDER ON MONDAY GIVEN
A STRAIGHT ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION...LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS.
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST THAT WAVE HANGING BACK IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WOULD START TO PULL NORTHWARD AS SHARPER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY..SLOWING MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
ENHANCING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT COOLING ALONG WITH PRECIP...WITH PERHAPS
A LITTLE CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURRING AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT...UNLIKE THE
GFS WHICH GOES ALL IN FOR A MIX OR CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF
PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE TIME...
HAVE WEIGHTED ECMWF SOLUTION QUITE A BIT MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL TRACK SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEFORE SUNSET. GUSTS TO 40 KT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
UNDER -TSRA...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A POTENTIAL FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A CLASSIC MIXING DAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP MIXING LIKELY DRIVING
DEWPOINTS QUITE LOW. AT THIS TIME...LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT EAST...TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT MISSOURI AND JAMES VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR...AND WILL BE REEVALUATING FOR
A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON MID SHIFT. THURSDAY WILL ALSO
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH AGAIN SOME
MARGINALLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...AND DRY DEWPOINTS KNOCKING
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT MANY AREAS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A combination of MVFR and IFR conditions continue across the
terminals early this afternoon. Light rain showers are currently
affecting the KABI terminal with some fog reducing visibilities
to 3 to 4SM at KJCT and KBBD. Should see an improvement in both CIGS
and visibilities by late afternoon with VFR/MVFR dominating. Some
scattered showers will be possible primarily across the KABI and
KSJT terminals through late afternoon. Carrying VCSH for now due to
coverage uncertainty. MVFR/IFR CIGS expected to return late tonight
into Monday morning, with VFR returning by afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2014/
UPDATE...
The forecast was updated to increase POPs slightly across central
and western counties this afternoon and to lower max temps a few
degrees.
Spotty light rain showers continue across mainly the Big Country
late this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms were
also entering extreme western portions of the Big Country and
Concho Valley. Latest HRRR/3km WRF data shows this area of
precipitation moving east across the area this afternoon. Mid
level lapse rates (700-500mb) will increase to 7 to 8 DEG C/KM
this afternoon, so will continue to keep a mention of thunderstorms
in the forecast. Severe weather is not anticipated but a few of
the stronger cells will be capable of producing small hail and
gusty winds. Abundant cloud cover and precip will hold temperatures
down across much of the area this afternoon with highs mainly in
the upper 50s and lower 60s. Some drier air will enter southwest
counties later this afternoon with some partial clearing expected.
This should allow temperatures to reach the upper 60s and lower
70s across this area.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Widespread stratus will continue across West Central Texas through
much of the next 24 hours. As a result, MVFR/IFR CIGS are expected
at the terminals. There may be some improvement this afternoon at
the KSOA and KSJT terminals due to low level westerly flow bringing
low level dry air, and have gone with VFR conditions. Low clouds
will return to much of the area late tonight. An upper level trough
will bring increasing lift, resulting in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Have continued VCSH at the KABI and KBBD
terminals for today.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Latest satellite imagery showing low clouds have spread north
across all of West Central Texas. Aloft, upper level trough was
located over the southwest U.S., with trough axis along the
Arizona/New Mexico border. Ahead of the trough, weak large-scale
ascent was over Texas as evident by a few light showers over the
eastern half of our area.
For today, as the upper level system moves east into the Southern
Plains, mid and upper level forcing will increase across West
Central Texas. Showers will become more widespread especially
across the eastern half of the area. The HRRR convective allowing
model indicates activity picking up over the Heartland and
Northwest Hill Country during the morning hours(after 10Z). Have
the highest POPS (likely to high end chance) across the eastern
1/3 of the area, decreasing to slight chance southwest of a
Sterling City to San Angelo to Junction line as forcing will be
much weaker. The mid level lapse rates will increase to 7 to 8 DEG
C/KM later today so isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A
couple of storms will have the potential to produce small hail,
gusty winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Rainfall
amounts will average 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch, with the higher
amounts across eastern 1/3 of the area. A few areas like the
Northern Edwards Plateau will not even receive a tenth of an inch.
Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s across the western Concho
Valley and along the I-10 corridor.
For tonight, the best large-scale ascent will be located east of
West Central Texas. Will keep the slight chance POPS going across
mainly the Big Country, otherwise going with a dry forecast. Lows
will be in the 40s.
LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
On Monday, we may have some lingering showers around the area as
a shortwave currently moving southeast into the Pacific Northwest
out of southwestern Canada will move through the main upper level
trough before it moves east of the area. Have kept the lower end
slight chance PoPs going for the area. If any precipitation
occurs, the main mode would likely be showers again, but an
isolated thunderstorm or two would still be possible as cold
temperatures associated with the upper level low will help
increase lapse rates aloft. In addition, northerly flow at the
surface will bring in drier air resulting in an inverted V
soundings for southern areas, which could lead to gusty winds at
the surface underneath any showers, virga, or thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with this activity.
Tuesday through the middle of the week, we can expect dry
weather, and warming temperatures. Dry northwest flow aloft
Tuesday into Wednesday will be replaced by low amplitude ridging,
or zonal flow Thursday and Friday. Gulf moisture will move back
into the area by the second half of the week as well with
persistent southerly low level flow. After Friday, models disagree
on timing and strength of another possible trough moving through
the area, so have made very minimal changes to the forecast beyond
Day 4.
FIRE WEATHER...
With cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation through
Monday for most of the area, fire weather conditions will not be
a concern for most of the area.
However, by Tuesday, rain chances move out, and temperatures
begin to warm back up. Elevated to near critical conditions will
be possible Tuesday through the end of next week, and especially
on Wednesday and Thursday for areas west of an Abilene to Sonora
line, as southerly winds pick up to 15 to 20 mph, and relative
humidity values fall to 15 to 20 percent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 60 45 70 41 74 / 50 20 20 10 0
San Angelo 67 44 72 41 77 / 30 10 20 10 0
Junction 68 43 73 39 79 / 20 10 20 20 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.AVIATION...
RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW STORMS ARE ON THE DOWN TREND AND
GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL. HAVE TIMED OUT CURRENT STORMS BY 19Z AND THINK TAF SITES CAN
EXPECT ONLY SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF AFTERNOON/EVENING. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC SINCE THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SITES
REPORTING IFR AND LIFR BUT MANY METROPLEX SITES REMAIN VFR. I HAVE
LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SO HAVE KEPT
FORECAST LOWER. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE ON THE GROUND...EXPECT BR
AND IFR CIGS TO OCCUR BY MID EVENING AND LAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...TRENDING UP DURING THE MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY SO HAVE ADDED
VCSH AND WE WILL HAVE TO REFINE THE TSRA THREAT FOR THAT PERIOD.
84
&&
.UPDATE...
12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS MUCAPE ABOUT DOUBLE WHAT WAS FORECAST...
NEAR 700 J/KG. LATEST RAP NOW INDICATING AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. EARLY RADAR TRENDS
CONFIRM AMPLE INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE WITH ALREADY ONE SEVERE
STORM IN BOSQUE COUNTY THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
SHOW THE NEW WATCH AND MENTION A THREAT FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS...PERHAPS UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN OTHER PRODUCTS. AGAIN
STRONGEST STORMS AND BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
MORNING...AND NO CHANGE WITH THAT THINKING. TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW ENCROACHING UPON THE REGION AND
AREA VWPS SHOW 850MB WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASED TO
30KT DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION AS RICH GULF MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTHWARD AND OVER A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH
TEXAS TODAY AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES THE CATALYST FOR
PARCELS TO ACHIEVE THEIR LFC. THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
COINCIDENT WITH STEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL YIELD 200-600 J/KG OF CAPE WITH PARCELS LIFTED NEAR
850MB. THE HIGHEST MUCAPE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE GREATEST TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE INSTABILITY GETS EXHAUSTED...WITH PRIMARILY SHOWERS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A DRY SLOT WILL
ROTATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP END MOST OF THE
CONVECTION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...WRAP-AROUND RAIN MAY WORK BACK INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AS A TROWAL DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW THAT TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER. ALL RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN
END BY MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER THE
AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S...WITH TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 40S DURING PERIODS OF RAIN THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TOMORROW PUTTING
NORTH TEXAS IN A REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE. THIS
DOWNGLIDE SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUD COVER...WITH BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST EXPECTED BY NOON. USUALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THESE
TROUGHS WE ARE IN REGION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN DROPPING A STRONG POCKET OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY DOWN
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE EVENING HOURS.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL
OCCUR...ALL SIGNS THAT FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IS
FORECAST. 500MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR -25C...WHICH IS
EXTRAORDINARILY COLD FOR APRIL. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S WILL YIELD 500-1000J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HI-RES WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS
AS A RESULT. WHILE CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOK A LITTLE TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODES AT THIS TIME...THE EXTREMELY
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH FREEZING LEVELS DROPPING TO 8000FT WOULD
SUPPORT A SMALL HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER IF MORE SUNSHINE DID OCCUR
MONDAY...THE STRONGER HEATING WOULD INCREASE THE SUPERCELL/HAIL
THREAT. FURTHERMORE BECAUSE WE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH MONDAY...ANY SUPERCELL STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY BE LEFT
MOVING OR ANTI-CYCLONIC.
RAPID CLEARING WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THIS SHOULD MIX STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE LIMITED BY COOLISH TEMPS
WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR 70 DEGREES...AND WHAT SHOULD BE MOIST FUELS
FROM THE FORECASTED RAINFALL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DIE OFF AND THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES
OVER NORTH TEXAS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S EAST TO UPPER
40S WEST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS SUNNY AND VERY NICE WITH HIGHS WARMING
TO NEAR 80. SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN
THURSDAY AS WELL...BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION.
EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST/STRONGEST AND BRINGS
IT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS IT AND BRINGS
IT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE TEMPERED BY A STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION...AND
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT
SITS OVER THE GULF MID-LATE WEEK. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
THAN THE GFS...AND BRING LOW POPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE A STRONG FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND BEHIND IT. TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 54 48 65 44 71 / 100 40 30 20 0
WACO, TX 57 48 67 46 72 / 90 20 30 20 0
PARIS, TX 54 47 62 45 66 / 100 60 30 20 0
DENTON, TX 54 46 64 43 70 / 100 40 30 20 0
MCKINNEY, TX 54 47 64 44 68 / 100 40 30 20 0
DALLAS, TX 54 48 65 45 71 / 100 40 30 20 0
TERRELL, TX 54 48 64 44 69 / 100 30 30 20 0
CORSICANA, TX 56 49 65 45 69 / 100 20 20 20 0
TEMPLE, TX 59 47 68 45 73 / 80 20 20 20 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 54 45 67 42 73 / 90 30 30 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2014
.UPDATE...
The forecast was updated to increase POPs slightly across central
and western counties this afternoon and to lower max temps a few
degrees.
Spotty light rain showers continue across mainly the Big Country
late this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms were
also entering extreme western portions of the Big Country and
Concho Valley. Latest HRRR/3km WRF data shows this area of
precipitation moving east across the area this afternoon. Mid
level lapse rates (700-500mb) will increase to 7 to 8 DEG C/KM
this afternoon, so will continue to keep a mention of thunderstorms
in the forecast. Severe weather is not anticipated but a few of
the stronger cells will be capable of producing small hail and
gusty winds. Abundant cloud cover and precip will hold temperatures
down across much of the area this afternoon with highs mainly in
the upper 50s and lower 60s. Some drier air will enter southwest
counties later this afternoon with some partial clearing expected.
This should allow temperatures to reach the upper 60s and lower
70s across this area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Widespread stratus will continue across West Central Texas through
much of the next 24 hours. As a result, MVFR/IFR CIGS are expected
at the terminals. There may be some improvement this afternoon at
the KSOA and KSJT terminals due to low level westerly flow bringing
low level dry air, and have gone with VFR conditions. Low clouds
will return to much of the area late tonight. An upper level trough
will bring increasing lift, resulting in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Have continued VCSH at the KABI and KBBD
terminals for today.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Latest satellite imagery showing low clouds have spread north
across all of West Central Texas. Aloft, upper level trough was
located over the southwest U.S., with trough axis along the
Arizona/New Mexico border. Ahead of the trough, weak large-scale
ascent was over Texas as evident by a few light showers over the
eastern half of our area.
For today, as the upper level system moves east into the Southern
Plains, mid and upper level forcing will increase across West
Central Texas. Showers will become more widespread especially
across the eastern half of the area. The HRRR convective allowing
model indicates activity picking up over the Heartland and
Northwest Hill Country during the morning hours(after 10Z). Have
the highest POPS (likely to high end chance) across the eastern
1/3 of the area, decreasing to slight chance southwest of a
Sterling City to San Angelo to Junction line as forcing will be
much weaker. The mid level lapse rates will increase to 7 to 8 DEG
C/KM later today so isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A
couple of storms will have the potential to produce small hail,
gusty winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Rainfall
amounts will average 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch, with the higher
amounts across eastern 1/3 of the area. A few areas like the
Northern Edwards Plateau will not even receive a tenth of an inch.
Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s across the western Concho
Valley and along the I-10 corridor.
For tonight, the best large-scale ascent will be located east of
West Central Texas. Will keep the slight chance POPS going across
mainly the Big Country, otherwise going with a dry forecast. Lows
will be in the 40s.
LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
On Monday, we may have some lingering showers around the area as
a shortwave currently moving southeast into the Pacific Northwest
out of southwestern Canada will move through the main upper level
trough before it moves east of the area. Have kept the lower end
slight chance PoPs going for the area. If any precipitation
occurs, the main mode would likely be showers again, but an
isolated thunderstorm or two would still be possible as cold
temperatures associated with the upper level low will help
increase lapse rates aloft. In addition, northerly flow at the
surface will bring in drier air resulting in an inverted V
soundings for southern areas, which could lead to gusty winds at
the surface underneath any showers, virga, or thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with this activity.
Tuesday through the middle of the week, we can expect dry
weather, and warming temperatures. Dry northwest flow aloft
Tuesday into Wednesday will be replaced by low amplitude ridging,
or zonal flow Thursday and Friday. Gulf moisture will move back
into the area by the second half of the week as well with
persistent southerly low level flow. After Friday, models disagree
on timing and strength of another possible trough moving through
the area, so have made very minimal changes to the forecast beyond
Day 4.
FIRE WEATHER...
With cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation through
Monday for most of the area, fire weather conditions will not be
a concern for most of the area.
However, by Tuesday, rain chances move out, and temperatures
begin to warm back up. Elevated to near critical conditions will
be possible Tuesday through the end of next week, and especially
on Wednesday and Thursday for areas west of an Abilene to Sonora
line, as southerly winds pick up to 15 to 20 mph, and relative
humidity values fall to 15 to 20 percent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 60 46 70 41 73 / 50 20 20 5 0
San Angelo 67 46 72 41 77 / 30 10 20 0 0
Junction 68 46 73 39 78 / 20 10 20 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
659 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS MUCAPE ABOUT DOUBLE WHAT WAS FORECAST...
NEAR 700 J/KG. LATEST RAP NOW INDICATING AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. EARLY RADAR TRENDS
CONFIRM AMPLE INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE WITH ALREADY ONE SEVERE
STORM IN BOSQUE COUNTY THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
SHOW THE NEW WATCH AND MENTION A THREAT FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS...PERHAPS UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN OTHER PRODUCTS. AGAIN
STRONGEST STORMS AND BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
MORNING...AND NO CHANGE WITH THAT THINKING. TR.92
&&
.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL
PREVAIL VCTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL HANDLE EACH BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A TEMPO TO TRY TO PIN DOWN THE BEST TIMING OF
ACTIVITY. LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
JUST MENTION -RA/SHRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WACO WILL LIKELY
RECEIVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE MAIN FORCING ALOFT REACHES
THE REGION. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH IFR
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AFTER 14-15Z.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW ENCROACHING UPON THE REGION AND
AREA VWPS SHOW 850MB WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASED TO
30KT DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION AS RICH GULF MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTHWARD AND OVER A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH
TEXAS TODAY AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES THE CATALYST FOR
PARCELS TO ACHIEVE THEIR LFC. THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
COINCIDENT WITH STEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL YIELD 200-600 J/KG OF CAPE WITH PARCELS LIFTED NEAR
850MB. THE HIGHEST MUCAPE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE GREATEST TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE INSTABILITY GETS EXHAUSTED...WITH PRIMARILY SHOWERS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A DRY SLOT WILL
ROTATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP END MOST OF THE
CONVECTION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...WRAP-AROUND RAIN MAY WORK BACK INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AS A TROWAL DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW THAT TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER. ALL RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN
END BY MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER THE
AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S...WITH TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 40S DURING PERIODS OF RAIN THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TOMORROW PUTTING
NORTH TEXAS IN A REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE. THIS
DOWNGLIDE SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUD COVER...WITH BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST EXPECTED BY NOON. USUALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THESE
TROUGHS WE ARE IN REGION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN DROPPING A STRONG POCKET OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY DOWN
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE EVENING HOURS.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL
OCCUR...ALL SIGNS THAT FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IS
FORECAST. 500MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR -25C...WHICH IS
EXTRAORDINARILY COLD FOR APRIL. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S WILL YIELD 500-1000J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HI-RES WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS
AS A RESULT. WHILE CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOK A LITTLE TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODES AT THIS TIME...THE EXTREMELY
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH FREEZING LEVELS DROPPING TO 8000FT WOULD
SUPPORT A SMALL HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER IF MORE SUNSHINE DID OCCUR
MONDAY...THE STRONGER HEATING WOULD INCREASE THE SUPERCELL/HAIL
THREAT. FURTHERMORE BECAUSE WE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH MONDAY...ANY SUPERCELL STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY BE LEFT
MOVING OR ANTI-CYCLONIC.
RAPID CLEARING WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THIS SHOULD MIX STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE LIMITED BY COOLISH TEMPS
WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR 70 DEGREES...AND WHAT SHOULD BE MOIST FUELS
FROM THE FORECASTED RAINFALL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DIE OFF AND THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES
OVER NORTH TEXAS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S EAST TO UPPER
40S WEST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS SUNNY AND VERY NICE WITH HIGHS WARMING
TO NEAR 80. SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN
THURSDAY AS WELL...BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION.
EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST/STRONGEST AND BRINGS
IT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS IT AND BRINGS
IT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE TEMPERED BY A STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION...AND
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT
SITS OVER THE GULF MID-LATE WEEK. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
THAN THE GFS...AND BRING LOW POPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE A STRONG FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND BEHIND IT.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 54 48 65 44 71 / 100 40 30 20 0
WACO, TX 57 48 67 46 72 / 90 20 30 20 0
PARIS, TX 54 47 62 45 66 / 100 60 30 20 0
DENTON, TX 54 46 64 43 70 / 100 40 30 20 0
MCKINNEY, TX 54 47 64 44 68 / 100 40 30 20 0
DALLAS, TX 54 48 65 45 71 / 100 40 30 20 0
TERRELL, TX 54 48 64 44 69 / 100 30 30 20 0
CORSICANA, TX 56 49 65 45 69 / 100 20 20 20 0
TEMPLE, TX 59 47 68 45 73 / 80 20 20 20 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 54 45 67 42 73 / 90 30 30 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
612 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Widespread stratus will continue across West Central Texas through
much of the next 24 hours. As a result, MVFR/IFR CIGS are expected
at the terminals. There may be some improvement this afternoon at
the KSOA and KSJT terminals due to low level westerly flow bringing
low level dry air, and have gone with VFR conditions. Low clouds
will return to much of the area late tonight. An upper level trough
will bring increasing lift, resulting in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Have continued VCSH at the KABI and KBBD
terminals for today.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Latest satellite imagery showing low clouds have spread north
across all of West Central Texas. Aloft, upper level trough was
located over the southwest U.S., with trough axis along the
Arizona/New Mexico border. Ahead of the trough, weak large-scale
ascent was over Texas as evident by a few light showers over the
eastern half of our area.
For today, as the upper level system moves east into the Southern
Plains, mid and upper level forcing will increase across West
Central Texas. Showers will become more widespread especially
across the eastern half of the area. The HRRR convective allowing
model indicates activity picking up over the Heartland and
Northwest Hill Country during the morning hours(after 10Z). Have
the highest POPS (likely to high end chance) across the eastern
1/3 of the area, decreasing to slight chance southwest of a
Sterling City to San Angelo to Junction line as forcing will be
much weaker. The mid level lapse rates will increase to 7 to 8 DEG
C/KM later today so isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A
couple of storms will have the potential to produce small hail,
gusty winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Rainfall
amounts will average 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch, with the higher
amounts across eastern 1/3 of the area. A few areas like the
Northern Edwards Plateau will not even receive a tenth of an inch.
Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s across the western Concho
Valley and along the I-10 corridor.
For tonight, the best large-scale ascent will be located east of
West Central Texas. Will keep the slight chance POPS going across
mainly the Big Country, otherwise going with a dry forecast. Lows
will be in the 40s.
LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
On Monday, we may have some lingering showers around the area as
a shortwave currently moving southeast into the Pacific Northwest
out of southwestern Canada will move through the main upper level
trough before it moves east of the area. Have kept the lower end
slight chance PoPs going for the area. If any precipitation
occurs, the main mode would likely be showers again, but an
isolated thunderstorm or two would still be possible as cold
temperatures associated with the upper level low will help
increase lapse rates aloft. In addition, northerly flow at the
surface will bring in drier air resulting in an inverted V
soundings for southern areas, which could lead to gusty winds at
the surface underneath any showers, virga, or thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with this activity.
Tuesday through the middle of the week, we can expect dry
weather, and warming temperatures. Dry northwest flow aloft
Tuesday into Wednesday will be replaced by low amplitude ridging,
or zonal flow Thursday and Friday. Gulf moisture will move back
into the area by the second half of the week as well with
persistent southerly low level flow. After Friday, models disagree
on timing and strength of another possible trough moving through
the area, so have made very minimal changes to the forecast beyond
Day 4.
FIRE WEATHER...
With cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation through
Monday for most of the area, fire weather conditions will not be
a concern for most of the area.
However, by Tuesday, rain chances move out, and temperatures
begin to warm back up. Elevated to near critical conditions will
be possible Tuesday through the end of next week, and especially
on Wednesday and Thursday for areas west of an Abilene to Sonora
line, as southerly winds pick up to 15 to 20 mph, and relative
humidity values fall to 15 to 20 percent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 60 46 70 41 73 / 40 20 20 5 0
San Angelo 69 46 72 41 77 / 20 10 20 0 0
Junction 71 46 73 39 78 / 20 10 20 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
351 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Latest satellite imagery showing low clouds have spread north
across all of West Central Texas. Aloft, upper level trough was
located over the southwest U.S., with trough axis along the
Arizona/New Mexico border. Ahead of the trough, weak large-scale
ascent was over Texas as evident by a few light showers over the
eastern half of our area.
For today, as the upper level system moves east into the Southern
Plains, mid and upper level forcing will increase across West
Central Texas. Showers will become more widespread especially
across the eastern half of the area. The HRRR convective allowing
model indicates activity picking up over the Heartland and
Northwest Hill Country during the morning hours(after 10Z). Have
the highest POPS (likely to high end chance) across the eastern
1/3 of the area, decreasing to slight chance southwest of a
Sterling City to San Angelo to Junction line as forcing will be
much weaker. The mid level lapse rates will increase to 7 to 8 DEG
C/KM later today so isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A
couple of storms will have the potential to produce small hail,
gusty winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Rainfall
amounts will average 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch, with the higher
amounts across eastern 1/3 of the area. A few areas like the
Northern Edwards Plateau will not even receive a tenth of an inch.
Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s across the western Concho
Valley and along the I-10 corridor.
For tonight, the best large-scale ascent will be located east of
West Central Texas. Will keep the slight chance POPS going across
mainly the Big Country, otherwise going with a dry forecast. Lows
will be in the 40s.
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
On Monday, we may have some lingering showers around the area as
a shortwave currently moving southeast into the Pacific Northwest
out of southwestern Canada will move through the main upper level
trough before it moves east of the area. Have kept the lower end
slight chance PoPs going for the area. If any precipitation
occurs, the main mode would likely be showers again, but an
isolated thunderstorm or two would still be possible as cold
temperatures associated with the upper level low will help
increase lapse rates aloft. In addition, northerly flow at the
surface will bring in drier air resulting in an inverted V
soundings for southern areas, which could lead to gusty winds at
the surface underneath any showers, virga, or thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with this activity.
Tuesday through the middle of the week, we can expect dry
weather, and warming temperatures. Dry northwest flow aloft
Tuesday into Wednesday will be replaced by low amplitude ridging,
or zonal flow Thursday and Friday. Gulf moisture will move back
into the area by the second half of the week as well with
persistent southerly low level flow. After Friday, models disagree
on timing and strength of another possible trough moving through
the area, so have made very minimal changes to the forecast beyond
Day 4.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
With cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation through
Monday for most of the area, fire weather conditions will not be
a concern for most of the area.
However, by Tuesday, rain chances move out, and temperatures
begin to warm back up. Elevated to near critical conditions will
be possible Tuesday through the end of next week, and especially
on Wednesday and Thursday for areas west of an Abilene to Sonora
line, as southerly winds pick up to 15 to 20 mph, and relative
humidity values fall to 15 to 20 percent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 60 46 70 41 73 / 40 20 20 5 0
San Angelo 69 46 72 41 77 / 20 10 20 0 0
Junction 71 46 73 39 78 / 20 10 20 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21/20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1152 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.AVIATION...
MESSY UPPER PATTERN ALONG WITH WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
TOWARD MORNING SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AFTER
9Z. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE BRINGS WARM SECTOR FURTHER INLAND THAN
EARLIER RUNS. ADJUSTED WINDS ACCORDINGLY IN UPCOMING TAFS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/POSITIONING AND AREAL PRECIP COVERAGE
REMAINS QUITE LOW. THINK HRRR HAS HANDLED SHORT TERM TRENDS BEST
AND ANTICIPATE SOME DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT OVERALL BEST COVERAGE ACROSS N/NE PARTS OF SE TX ON
SUNDAY. OIL RIGS OFFSHORE REPORTING VISBYS GENERALLY < 2NM IN SEA
FOG SO LOWERED COASTAL VISIBYS POST WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THRU IN THE LATE AFTN & EVNG HOURS BRINGING SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014/
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...
BOUNDARY ANALYZED JUST ONSHORE AT 02Z. A VEERING WIND WITH HEIGHT
HAS BROUGHT HIGHER SOUTHWESTERN MOISTURE OVER OUR INLAND COOLER
DRIER AIR MASS AND GENERATED EITHER DRIZZLE OR LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING HOURS AS WEAK VORTICITY RIDES OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
OVER THE COMING HOURS AND PROVIDES MORE LIFT. 25HJET STREAK
HEADING OUT OF THE BIG BEND AT 00Z THAT MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
BETTER OVERALL RAIN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY.
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET POSITIONING ITSELF DEAD- CENTER OVER
EASTERN TEXAS SO THESE MORE DIFFULENT UPPER LEVELS WILL ENHANCE
THIS GENTLE WAA PATTERN LIFT. 7-8H WARM LAYER WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTION ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON... PROFILES
EXPECTED TO WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS (AS MID-LAYERS
STAY WARM) TO POSSIBLY TAP INTO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DURING SUNDAY PM...INCREASING STORM THREAT/COVERAGE. OVERCAST AND
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINTAIN A LOWER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM
SUNDAY MORNING`S MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO THE AFTERNOON`S UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S. INLAND PATCHY FOG WITH LOW CEILINGS...POCKETS OF MORE
DENSE SEA FOG...THROUGH AN EARLY MONDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 56 67 52 70 48 / 50 60 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 74 54 72 51 / 40 70 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 62 73 58 72 56 / 40 60 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
553 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS ON THE BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. 06.21Z RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS AREA IS IN THE BELT OF HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000J/KG IN THIS REGION. THIS
AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS A LITTLE BETTER SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS THANKS TO AN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH. THE 06.21Z HRRR IS IN LINE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND
SHOWS IT MAINLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD ALONG THE CONVERGENCE IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEAKENING AS IT REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN.
AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS AS WELL. FREEZING LEVELS
ARE FAIRLY LOW AT 6-7KFT ALONG WITH DONOVAN HEIGHTS ONLY BEING
AROUND 17KFT...BUT THINK THAT LACK OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL KEEP
ANY UPDRAFTS FROM BEING SUSTAINED. ONE COCORAHS REPORT OF PEA
SIZED HAIL NEAR ELLENDALE MN ALREADY AND THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE
EXTENT OF HOW HIGH THE HAIL GETS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
FORECAST CONCERN IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NEAR DETROIT AND LOW
PRESSURE FROM MN TO NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO
LEADING TO CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS IA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN WHERE MOST UNSTABLE AIR SEEN JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUD SHIELD HAS BEEN ALL DAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN ND AND WILL HELP TO DRIVE THE LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE A
LARGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MAIN CONCERN IS RAIN CHANCES WITH THESE FEATURES. LOOKING LIKE THE
INITIAL CLOUD BAND AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN OR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WANE FOR A TIME...BUT INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE WAVE AND FRONT MOVE IN...AIDED BY DEFORMATION ON THE
NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
LOOKING LIKE A MORE MILD OR NORMAL APRIL TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL
TAKE HOLD THIS WEEK. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING FOR A
FEW DAYS AND WEAK TROUGHING FOR A FEW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TUE/WED...AND INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING
THIS SYSTEM POSES PROBABLY THE BIGGEST DILEMMA OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED THE FRONT WOULD HANG UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. BUT LATER SOLUTIONS NOW POINTING TO SOME
WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND THE FIRST ONE...
RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PUSH WITH A MORE TRANSIENT
RAIN EVENT. GFS HAD LATCHED ONTO THIS ALREADY WITH ITS 06Z
RUN...AND 12Z CONTINUED. LATEST 12Z ECMWF NOW ALSO ON BOARD WITH
THIS. WITH MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON A SOLUTION...
DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. FOR NOW WAS CONSERVATIVE
WITH CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUT MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED VCSH AT
BOTH KRST/KLSE AFTER 20-21Z. STILL ASSESSING IF THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WELL...BUT CHANCES
OF ONE AFFECTING EITHER AERODROME ARE PRETTY SMALL...SO OPTED NOT
TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
REMAIN VFR. LOOKING FOR THESE SHRA TO EVENTUALLY FIZZLE OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL MONDAY MORNING
AND THIS WILL BE BASED ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. IF WE
SCATTER...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MORE
FOG AS A RESULT. THINKING CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN BROKEN ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THIS BUT DID INCLUDE 3-5SM BR...BANKING ON SOME HOLES
IN THE SKY COVER. EXPECTING SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN SHRA
MONDAY...BUT THIS DOESNT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND NOON.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR RATHER GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
TO SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1236 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH
MOVING EAST THROUGH MN. RAP MODEL BRINGS IN A 0-3KM MUCAPE POOL OF
500-1000 J/KG BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RAP DEW POINTS
SEEM A BIT OVERDONE IN THE M-U40S...BUT MODIFIED CAPE WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S WOULD STILL YIELD 300-800J/KG. THIS IS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING. OTHERWISE...MORE SPRING-LIKE
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TODAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 50S
NORTH OF I-94...TO A FEW LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-90.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-
SECTION...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE SYSTEM/S DEFORMATION REGION OF PCPN NORTH-WEST OF THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SUBTLE FEATURES THAT COULD STILL RESULT IN
SOME PCPN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING...WITH SOME MINOR RIPPLES
MOVING DOWN THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAKES TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES PROBLEMATIC...AND WILL LIKELY USE BROAD
STROKES WITH THE CHANCES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DUE HINT THAT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WILL WORK SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...DROPPING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER THAT NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE...COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKER SIGNALS...COULD
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL SLATED TO BE MORE ZONAL TO RIDGING FOR MUCH
OF THE NEW WEEK...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A RELATIVELY MILD AIR
MASS. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES VIA THE ECMWF STILL HOVER AROUND +1. IT
WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEKS.
THAT SAID...ITS NOT GOING TO BE PCPN FREE.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA MID WEEK...STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION AS IT PASSES WED
NIGHT/THU. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WED NIGHT...AND THE GFS/EC SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD DRIVE ACROSS IT. SOME LOW/MID LEVEL QG
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. SATURATION COULD BE AN ISSUE AS
TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY TRENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION...WHERE SATURATION IS DEEPER.
THE WEEKEND IS SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TAKES A NORTHEAST TRACK TOWARD THE REGION. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND THE PREV ECMWF RUN...WITH THE EC A BIT FASTER. HOWEVER...THE
06.00Z EC IS MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS THINKING. WITH THE GULF OPEN
AND A STRONG FEED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...A BROAD AREA OF PCPN LOOKS LIKELY...WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
RAIN FALLING ON THE REGION. IF REALIZED...WOULD LIKELY SEE RISES ON
AREA RIVERS/STREAMS. GOING TO SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR
NOW. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED VCSH AT
BOTH KRST/KLSE AFTER 20-21Z. STILL ASSESSING IF THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WELL...BUT CHANCES
OF ONE AFFECTING EITHER AERODROME ARE PRETTY SMALL...SO OPTED NOT
TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
REMAIN VFR. LOOKING FOR THESE SHRA TO EVENTUALLY FIZZLE OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL MONDAY MORNING
AND THIS WILL BE BASED ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. IF WE
SCATTER...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MORE
FOG AS A RESULT. THINKING CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN BROKEN ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THIS BUT DID INCLUDE 3-5SM BR...BANKING ON SOME HOLES
IN THE SKY COVER. EXPECTING SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN SHRA
MONDAY...BUT THIS DOESNT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND NOON.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR RATHER GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
TO SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1011 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA BUT SO FAR ONLY
HITTING THE GROUND IN CENTRAL IOWA. MESO MODELS KEEP MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIP TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A FEW SHOWERS CLIPPING OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. MAY ADD LOW POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE IS STILL A LOT
OF DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS TO OVERCOME IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS.
BETTER INSTABILITY IS NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AND THE RAP INDICATES
AROUND 50 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE FAR NW CWA.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN THE WEST...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM FOND DU LAC TO JANESVILLE. A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON LATEST NAM
SOUNDINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG 250 MB JET MAX OF 120 KNOTS MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THIS BRINGS MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE
ILLINOIS BORDER REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SATURATION DOES OCCUR AT 700 MB...BUT 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS
RATHER WEAK AND THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW 800 MB ARE DRY. THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH ONLY 4 JOULES/KG. THEREFORE THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCAS/VIRGA MAINLY WEST OF MADISON BUT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS QUESTIONABLE.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE 925/850 AND 700 MB LEVELS
TODAY.
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY.
WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM PUSHING
INLAND LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.
NAM/ECMWF KEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS TRY TO CLIP
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAINLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THEY ARE A BIT SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE NAM/ECMWF LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS. PREFER THE
MORE CONSISTENT NAM/ECMWF TRACKS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS STILL TRY TO BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
MONDAY WITH WEAK TO MODEST LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE/DEFORMATION ZONE. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH SOMEWHAT STEEP
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SEEN IN FAR
WESTERN AREAS. LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST GOING...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEPT LOWER END POPS GOING FOR NOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...UNTIL MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE QUESTIONABLE...ESPECIALLY
ON NAM...WITH ANY MOIST AREAS SHALLOW AND NOT VERY PERSISTENT.
COULD END UP BEING SPRINKLES OR VIRGA DURING THIS PERIOD IF BETTER
MOISTURE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE.
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE...WITH AROUND 50
WELL INLAND. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S
INLAND...WITH A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
LAKE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE
WARMER NEAR THE LAKE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY GIVEN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRINGING ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN.
NEXT ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN TRIES TO SET UP FOR
SATURDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING VARYING LOCATIONS OF LOW PRESSURE
AND OTHER FEATURES. FOR NOW...USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SOUTH FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM PUSHING INLAND LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATER TODAY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SM/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
950 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH
MOVING EAST THROUGH MN. RAP MODEL BRINGS IN A 0-3KM MUCAPE POOL OF
500-1000 J/KG BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RAP DEW POINTS
SEEM A BIT OVERDONE IN THE M-U40S...BUT MODIFIED CAPE WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S WOULD STILL YIELD 300-800J/KG. THIS IS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING. OTHERWISE...MORE SPRING-LIKE
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TODAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 50S
NORTH OF I-94...TO A FEW LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-90.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-
SECTION...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE SYSTEM/S DEFORMATION REGION OF PCPN NORTH-WEST OF THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SUBTLE FEATURES THAT COULD STILL RESULT IN
SOME PCPN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING...WITH SOME MINOR RIPPLES
MOVING DOWN THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAKES TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES PROBLEMATIC...AND WILL LIKELY USE BROAD
STROKES WITH THE CHANCES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DUE HINT THAT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WILL WORK SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...DROPPING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER THAT NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE...COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKER SIGNALS...COULD
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL SLATED TO BE MORE ZONAL TO RIDGING FOR MUCH
OF THE NEW WEEK...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A RELATIVELY MILD AIR
MASS. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES VIA THE ECMWF STILL HOVER AROUND +1. IT
WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEKS.
THAT SAID...ITS NOT GOING TO BE PCPN FREE.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA MID WEEK...STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION AS IT PASSES WED
NIGHT/THU. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WED NIGHT...AND THE GFS/EC SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD DRIVE ACROSS IT. SOME LOW/MID LEVEL QG
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. SATURATION COULD BE AN ISSUE AS
TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY TRENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION...WHERE SATURATION IS DEEPER.
THE WEEKEND IS SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TAKES A NORTHEAST TRACK TOWARD THE REGION. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND THE PREV ECMWF RUN...WITH THE EC A BIT FASTER. HOWEVER...THE
06.00Z EC IS MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS THINKING. WITH THE GULF OPEN
AND A STRONG FEED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...A BROAD AREA OF PCPN LOOKS LIKELY...WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
RAIN FALLING ON THE REGION. IF REALIZED...WOULD LIKELY SEE RISES ON
AREA RIVERS/STREAMS. GOING TO SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR
NOW. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8K FEET
THROUGH 07.08Z...AND THEN CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO 5K FEET. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM 06.22Z THROUGH 07.12Z.
THE LAMP DATA SUGGESTS THAT FG WILL DEVELOP AT KRST AFTER 07.08Z.
HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE AND WINDS REMAINING ABOVE 5
KNOTS...JUST DO NOT SEE THIS OCCURRING...SO DID NOT INCLUDE IT INT
THE TAF.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
356 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SWING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA MAKES ITS WAY TO THE
COAST. SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE MIDLANDS FROM AROUND MID-MORNING AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION SPREADS EAST AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S WEST TO UPPER 60S EAST SHOULD FALL A
FEW DEGREES AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST.
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL CROSS OUR
AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS
SUPPORT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT.
WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
TODAY. KEPT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
READING IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST IN SPITE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE
...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S. LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BULK OF SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWER MOVING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THIS LINE IS PUSHING FROM
THE PIEDMONT REGION INTO THE MIDLANDS AND WILL CROSS THE AREA BY
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE IFR AT ALL TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LAMP GUIDANCE AND HRRR LEANING
TOWARDS IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 09Z TO 12Z. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL HANDLE WITH A
MENTION OF -SHRA IN MAIN GROUP OR TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT BUT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THEN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
VFR BY LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
150 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. A LINGERING TROUGH IN THE FORECAST
AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE REGION BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING STRONG CONVECTION OFF THE COAST AND THE COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST. SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AT 500MB AND MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT PASSES.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE WEDGE
ERODES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT GETS BY 12Z AND HAVE LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S WEST TO AROUND 60 EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION MAY HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND
20 PERCENT.
WE USED THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE SHARP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG NET RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUPPORTED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS SUPPORT NEAR- NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BULK OF SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWER MOVING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THIS LINE IS PUSHING FROM
THE PIEDMONT REGION INTO THE MIDLANDS AND WILL CROSS THE AREA BY
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE IFR AT ALL TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LAMP GUIDANCE AND HRRR LEANING
TOWARDS IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 09Z TO 12Z. RADAR TRENDS
INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL HANDLE WITH A
MENTION OF -SHRA IN MAIN GROUP OR TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT BUT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THEN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
VFR BY LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1225 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OHIO TONIGHT AND
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK ON TUESDAY. RAIN WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID
50S...EXCEPT IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
READINGS WILL STAY IN THE 40S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
ZONES/GRIDS UPDATED TO SLOW DEPARTURE OF RAIN SHIELD IN EASTERN
AREAS. WHILE OVERALL INTENSITIES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT EAST WITH SEVERAL
RUNS OF HRRR PICKING UP ON THIS. FOLLOWING HRRR GIVES A DEPARTURE
TIME IN FAR EASTERN AREAS AROUND OR AFTER 8Z...WITH GRIDS NOW
POINTED IN THIS DIRECTION. WILL BE MONITORING A BROKEN AREA OF
LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD. HRRR HANDLED THESE
FAIRLY WELL WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST. WILL
MAINTAIN 14 POPS WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN THR REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IN BURGEONING MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION/FGEN REGION OF A MATURING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING BEFORE EXITING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY CHANGE
TO THE FCST WAS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN INTO FAR NORTHERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN EXTREMELY DRY AIR BELOW 10 KFT...WITH OUR
EXTREME NORTHWEST (BENTON HARBOR/MICHIGAN CITY) POTENTIALLY
REMAINING DRY OR ONLY RECEIVING A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN GIVEN
THIS DRY AIR AND MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE DEEPENING SFC REFLECTION
NORTHEAST THROUGH OHIO/LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS
SOUTHERN-EASTERN ZONES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 0.40" AND
0.80"...WITH A NARROW BAND UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR PIVOT POINT
(MOST LIKELY THE I-69 CORRIDOR). THIS RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN RENEWED
RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS AND WILL HELP PROLONG MINOR FLOODING ON
AREA RIVERS. MAINLY DRY AND COOL TOMORROW IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
UNDER THERMAL TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER
NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
KICKS IN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DEEP MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB ACCORDING TO BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL MIX DOWN GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH. BY LATER
IN THE DAY...WINDS WILL WANE AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LOST BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA AND WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE...HAVE NO PLANNED CHANGES TO
CURRENT CHANCE POPS. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS
PACKAGE DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING FORCING AND LACK OF BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY DESPITE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
7 TO 7.5 RANGE.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR ITS
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF... A STRONGLY FORCED FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND SLOW PROGRESSION
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER 1"+ RAINFALL EVENT.
PREFER THE ECMWF DEEPER...SLOWER...MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE
POSSIBILITY OF 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE NOT JUMPING TOTALLY ON BOARD WITH THIS
SOLUTION...DID NUDGE HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOWARDS ECMWF WITH UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT
AGREEMENT REGARDING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AFTER THIS COLD FRONT DEPARTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LOW CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY EAST OF KFWA MOST OF THE
EVENING BUT HAVE FINALLY EDGED IN FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A SHORT VISIT
AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND DEEPER MSTR GOES WITH IT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KSBN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KFWA
EVENTAULLY FOLLOWING SUIT LATER TONIGHT. NO SIG WEATHER TO WORRY
ABOUT AFTER 12Z TUES AS RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO
BRING DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...BENTLEY
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
505 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS 24HRS AGO IS NOW
MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME...SHORTWAVE OVER
WRN UPPER MI HAS BEEN GENERATING PESKY -SHRA FROM ISLE ROYALE ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA DURING THE NIGHT. THE -SHRA ARE DRIFTING SSE
INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI ATTM. MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE HAVE WORKED TO LIMIT FOG.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...UTILIZED MOSTLY EXTRAPOLATION/TRENDS TO
SHIFT AN AREA OF ISOLD/SCT -SHRA SSE FROM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD SCNTRL
UPPER MI BEFORE THE -SHRA DISSIPATE. WHERE THE -SHRA ARE
OCCURRING...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
-SHRA...THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR -DZ/-FZDZ TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. BEST CHC SHOULD BE OVER WRN UPPER MI. DWPT AT DISW4 IS STILL
AROUND 35F. AS THIS HIGHER DWPT AIR OVER THE LAKE ADVECTS SSE INTO
WRN UPPER MI WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE AT OR BLO FREEZING...STRATUS/FOG
AND POTENTIALLY -FZDZ SHOULD DEVELOP. THEREAFTER...EXPECT INCREASING
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES...BREAKING UP CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER
THE E WHERE THERE WILL BE A BRISK WIND ACROSS THE LAKE...TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD MOSTLY IN THE LWR 30S TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GENERALLY 30S AND LWR 40S N TO AROUND 50 FAR SCNTRL FROM KIMT TO
NEAR KMNM.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...
PROVIDING LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES...STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN TO THE NW WILL GENERATE SOME PCPN
ACROSS MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW A DECENT TEMP FALL. LOWERED
MINS TOWARD THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE...REPRESENTED BY THE BIAS
CORRECTED REGIONAL AND GLOBAL GEM. TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
SHOULD FALL TO THE MID TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
THE E.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
IS DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS RIDGE MOVES IN...EXPECT A STRONG AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER (AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA) LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MUCH OF THE LAND
CWA...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO JUST BE SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS. BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AFFECT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THIS
AREA OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT THROUGH AND SHOULD LEAD TO A
FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. STRONG WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY (850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C AT 06Z TO AT LEAST 6C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND LOWER VALUES (40S) OVER THE EAST WITH
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SPEAKING OF THOSE
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON (15-25KTS)
AND THAT WILL ALLOW THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS TO WARM AND LIMIT LAKE
BREEZE COOLING.
WHILE THE WARMING IS OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT WILL
STRETCH SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BEST FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN...BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE EXPECTED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPSTREAM SHOWERS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHOWALTER VALUES
AROUND 0 COULD PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY A VERY THIN LINE OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS TO STAY BELOW 0.15IN IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE CWA
BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL SOME BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0C TO -2C AT 850MB. THOSE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE ARE A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES TO NOTE. FIRST...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
TRIES TO BRUSH THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
SECOND...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO
SHIFT EAST THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND COULD KICK OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. GFS IS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE BUT MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE VERY LIMITED.
WILL TREND POPS UP TO LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FOR THE WEEKEND...FOCUS IS ON TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LEADING
PIECES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL PUSH THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS PRECIP WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS STILL SHOWING A WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS/GEM
FAST/SE ECMWF FARTHEST NORTHWEST. A GENERAL BLEND WILL WORK WELL AT
THIS POINT FOR POPS (CHANCES)...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY
MORNING AND SHIFTING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LOCATION OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH HAS A INFLUENCE ON
THE WEATHER FOR THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. BY THAT POINT...THE TWO WAVES THAT ARE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL HAVE MERGED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL BE HELPED BY A THIRD DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE TIMING OF THESE THREE FEATURES AND
HOW FAR EAST THEY END UP WILL DETERMINE PRECIP CHANCES (AND
MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBILITY) FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST AND THE
ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST WHILE THE 00Z GEM IS NOW SIMILAR TO .
THE GFS. WITH THE PHASING OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW AND MODELS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AT THIS POINT...WILL HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD INDICATE PRECIP. WITH THE EXPECTED COLD AIR THAT WILL SPILL IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW AND THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS
CORRECT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGING IN AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS COULD PRODUCE A 6HR PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. WAY TO FAR OUT TO GET TOO EXCITED AT THAT POTENTIAL
AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WISE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN RESEMBLES THE ONE FROM MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER. 850MB
TEMPS DO LOOK TO FALL TOWARD -12C TO -17C FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND
FEEZING ON TUESDAY. FOR THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN ENJOYING THE SPRING
LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT APPEARS THIS
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND RETURN THE AREA
BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG CURRENTLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WRN
UPPER MI WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO
UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND -DZ/-FZDZ AT ALL SITES. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF LOW CIGS AND VIS...BUT GIVEN THE
TRENDS IN RECENT HRS OVER THE WEST...EXPECT THAT LIFR AND
VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AT CMX/IWD WHILE MAINLY MVFR DROPPING
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT SAW. THE LOW CIGS AND MVFR VSBY
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN APPROACHING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND
DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING FROM THE LWR LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...WINDS
WILL PICK UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
ERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WHERE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-25KT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES FROM
MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. WINDS WILL REACH THE 20-30KT
RANGE...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH
PLATFORMS WILL REACH GALE FORCE AT SOME POINT WED/THU. STABLE
LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL WORK AGAINST STRONGER WINDS...BUT
HEALTHY PRES FALLS AHEAD OF LOW WED AND HEALTHY PRES RISES ARRIVING
BEHIND TROF PASSAGE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING MAY BE WHAT PUSHES WINDS
TO GALE FORCE FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THU NIGHT/FRI.
INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED AND WOULD EXPECT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO INCREASE SNOWMELT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON TUESDAY (INCLUDING LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
417 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN IL...WITH A 997MB
SFC LOW OFFSET JUST TO THE E. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THAT LOW TO NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH IS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE NEAR DLH. AN AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEEN STEADILY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA UNDER THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR
W...WITH NO PRECIP OBSERVED OVER WRN UPPER MI FROM THIS PRECIP. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE NEAR IRONWOOD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE GIVEN A
DIMINISHING TREND ON RADAR AND LACK OF MODELS SHOWING PRECIP THERE.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN COMING AND GOING FROM NEAR IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEAR NEWBERRY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
SHOULD HAVE FALLEN IN THAT AREA. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE SRN/ERN
SHOWERS POORLY...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS
OVER AN INCH NEAR THE WI BORDER...BUT THOSE MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED
THE PRECIP WELL ALL DAY AND HAVE SFC DEW POINTS /AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY/ TOO HIGH. WENT MORE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS THAT HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FOR THAT AREA...SO ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
THIS EVENING THERE.
AFTER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR W AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROUGH /AND FOG
OVER WRN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/ WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING NNW LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. STILL NOT TOO CERTAIN ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY...BUT ENOUGH
HIGH RES MODELS WERE SHOWING IT TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST WITH DECENT
CONFIDENCE. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW ALONG WITH A
SFC RIDGE...SO DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH IN THE MORNING. HAVE HIGHS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 50 OVER THE SCENTRAL...5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER /850MB TEMPS 8-9 DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY/.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
IS DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS RIDGE MOVES IN...EXPECT A STRONG AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER (AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA) LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MUCH OF THE LAND
CWA...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO JUST BE SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS. BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AFFECT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THIS
AREA OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT THROUGH AND SHOULD LEAD TO A
FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. STRONG WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY (850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C AT 06Z TO AT LEAST 6C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND LOWER VALUES (40S) OVER THE EAST WITH
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SPEAKING OF THOSE
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON (15-25KTS)
AND THAT WILL ALLOW THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS TO WARM AND LIMIT LAKE
BREEZE COOLING.
WHILE THE WARMING IS OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT WILL
STRETCH SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BEST FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN...BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE EXPECTED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPSTREAM SHOWERS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHOWALTER VALUES
AROUND 0 COULD PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY A VERY THIN LINE OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS TO STAY BELOW 0.15IN IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE CWA
BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL SOME BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0C TO -2C AT 850MB. THOSE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE ARE A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES TO NOTE. FIRST...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
TRIES TO BRUSH THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
SECOND...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO
SHIFT EAST THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND COULD KICK OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. GFS IS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE BUT MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE VERY LIMITED.
WILL TREND POPS UP TO LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FOR THE WEEKEND...FOCUS IS ON TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LEADING
PIECES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL PUSH THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS PRECIP WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS STILL SHOWING A WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS/GEM
FAST/SE ECMWF FARTHEST NORTHWEST. A GENERAL BLEND WILL WORK WELL AT
THIS POINT FOR POPS (CHANCES)...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY
MORNING AND SHIFTING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LOCATION OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH HAS A INFLUENCE ON
THE WEATHER FOR THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. BY THAT POINT...THE TWO WAVES THAT ARE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL HAVE MERGED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL BE HELPED BY A THIRD DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE TIMING OF THESE THREE FEATURES AND
HOW FAR EAST THEY END UP WILL DETERMINE PRECIP CHANCES (AND
MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBILITY) FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST AND THE
ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST WHILE THE 00Z GEM IS NOW SIMILAR TO .
THE GFS. WITH THE PHASING OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW AND MODELS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AT THIS POINT...WILL HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD INDICATE PRECIP. WITH THE EXPECTED COLD AIR THAT WILL SPILL IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW AND THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS
CORRECT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGING IN AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS COULD PRODUCE A 6HR PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. WAY TO FAR OUT TO GET TOO EXCITED AT THAT POTENTIAL
AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WISE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN RESEMBLES THE ONE FROM MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER. 850MB
TEMPS DO LOOK TO FALL TOWARD -12C TO -17C FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND
FEEZING ON TUESDAY. FOR THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN ENJOYING THE SPRING
LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT APPEARS THIS
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND RETURN THE AREA
BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG CURRENTLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WRN
UPPER MI WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO
UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND -DZ/-FZDZ AT ALL SITES. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF LOW CIGS AND VIS...BUT GIVEN THE
TRENDS IN RECENT HRS OVER THE WEST...EXPECT THAT LIFR AND
VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AT CMX/IWD WHILE MAINLY MVFR DROPPING
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT SAW. THE LOW CIGS AND MVFR VSBY
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS TODAY UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP TONIGHT/TUE...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN APPROACHING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SHOULD REACH
THE 15-25KT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVES FROM MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH PLATFORMS MAY REACH OR EXCEED
30KT AT SOME POINT WED/THU. WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED AND WOULD EXPECT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO INCREASE SNOWMELT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON TUESDAY (INCLUDING LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
132 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN IL...WITH A 997MB
SFC LOW OFFSET JUST TO THE E. AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THAT LOW TO NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH IS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE NEAR DLH. AN AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEEN STEADILY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA UNDER THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR
W...WITH NO PRECIP OBSERVED OVER WRN UPPER MI FROM THIS PRECIP. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE NEAR IRONWOOD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE GIVEN A
DIMINISHING TREND ON RADAR AND LACK OF MODELS SHOWING PRECIP THERE.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN COMING AND GOING FROM NEAR IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEAR NEWBERRY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
SHOULD HAVE FALLEN IN THAT AREA. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE SRN/ERN
SHOWERS POORLY...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS
OVER AN INCH NEAR THE WI BORDER...BUT THOSE MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED
THE PRECIP WELL ALL DAY AND HAVE SFC DEW POINTS /AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY/ TOO HIGH. WENT MORE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS THAT HAVE
TRENDED DRIER FOR THAT AREA...SO ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO
THIS EVENING THERE.
AFTER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR W AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROUGH /AND FOG
OVER WRN/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR/ WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING NNW LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. STILL NOT TOO CERTAIN ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY...BUT ENOUGH
HIGH RES MODELS WERE SHOWING IT TO KEEP IN THE FORECAST WITH DECENT
CONFIDENCE. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN TOMORROW ALONG WITH A
SFC RIDGE...SO DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH IN THE MORNING. HAVE HIGHS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 50 OVER THE SCENTRAL...5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER /850MB TEMPS 8-9 DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY/.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
LIGHT WINDS AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI WHERE PW VALUES START
THE EVENING NEAR 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL /0.2IN/. THE EXITING SFC RIDGE
OVER THE CWA AT 06Z WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY A WRAPPED
UP LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE 978MB WILL SWING ACROSS
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND E OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. 850MB WINDS AROUND 40KTS WILL BE OVER UPPER MI FROM 00Z
THURSDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT MIXING OFF THE
NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-35KT GUSTS OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS
FURTHER AS THE TIME NEARS. GALES MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
THE SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
TRIES TO PUSH N FROM THE MID MS VALLEY. EXPECT NW FLOW TO LINGER AT
500MB THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE THIS...SFC TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE
TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY...HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OUT OF THE HWO FOR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE W OF A LINE FROM MQT TO ESC...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HOLDING NEAR FREEZING. OTHERWISE ACROSS THE CWA TEMPS SHOULD BE
MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING. ANOTHER REASON TO KEEP THE MENTION OUT IS THE
FACT THAT OUR CURRENT TEMP FCST IS ON THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE...INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY.
THIS LOW PROBABILITY PRECIP WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STRETCH FROM WI THROUGH N TX
AT 06Z SUNDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES AT 12Z SUNDAY
WILL CROSS UPPER MI THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE SFC LOW
REMAINING MAINLY TO OUR S AND E /STRETCHING FROM S QUEBEC THROUGH MO
AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING ISSUES...PARTICULARLY
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON WITH THE GFS ON THE QUICK SIDE. EVEN WITH THE
DIFFERENCES THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR S CENTRAL UPPER MI. RAIN WILL
BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE UNTIL THE LOW SHIFTS E AND TRANSITIONS
TO MAINLY S SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLD FOR THE EXTENDED...JUST BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 12Z ECMWF
BRINGS 850MB TEMPS BACK INTO THE -15 TO -18C RANGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WHO ENJOY A LITTLE MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER...THE ECMWF DOES BRING BACK NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT 850MB
TEMPS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR
STORY...BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG CURRENTLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WRN
UPPER MI WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO
UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND -DZ/-FZDZ AT ALL SITES. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF LOW CIGS AND VIS...BUT GIVEN THE
TRENDS IN RECENT HRS OVER THE WEST...EXPECT THAT LIFR AND
VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AT CMX/IWD WHILE MAINLY MVFR DROPPING
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT SAW. THE LOW CIGS AND MVFR VSBY
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS TODAY UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP TONIGHT/TUE...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN APPROACHING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SHOULD REACH
THE 15-25KT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVES FROM MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH PLATFORMS MAY REACH OR EXCEED
30KT AT SOME POINT WED/THU. WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED AND WOULD EXPECT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO INCREASE SNOWMELT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON TUESDAY (INCLUDING LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY: THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NC. EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL THIS MORNING...AS THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ALOFT TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
EXPECT THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST. HOWEVER... WITH THE DEEP MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND PW`S STILL AROUND 1.5+ INCHES
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR EAST EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE
THIS MORNING IN THE 60 TO 80 KT RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE TIME OF MORNING AND RAINFALL FRONT EARLIER TODAY WE REMAIN
RATHER STABLE AT THE SURFACE. THUS.. VERY LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WE ARE NOT EXPECTED MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST RAP DID SHOW MAYBE A 100 J/KG OF
MLCAPE DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES
POINTS GENERALLY ALONG AN EAST OF RALEIGH. THUS... WE CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA... BUT
THE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE SMALL AT BEST.
WITH THE DEEP TROUGH ALOFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA TODAY... WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO START THE DAY EVEN AFTER THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES TO THE
EAST. IN FACT WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST REACHES OF THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO ACROSS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST (OR ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA)... WE MAY SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO LATE IN
THE DAY... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT PERHAPS SEE
THE MOST SUN TODAY. WRT HIGH TEMPS.... STILL THINK WE WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND EAST...
AS WE WILL HAVE HAVE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW... PLUS THICKNESS VALUES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CRASH.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: EXPECT A SERIES OF EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION AS THE DEEP TROUGH ITSELF SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT WE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THOUGH. HOWEVER... WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING
SOME 150 METERS BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE OUR
INSTABILITY ALOFT INCREASE... WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FINAL PASSING SHORTWAVE.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS MODEL
SOUNDING ARE QUITE DRY AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. EXPECT
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S... WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... A S/W RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS
AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC HIGH WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY STABLE
AIR LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. SFC
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPS TO COOL
QUICKLY. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS RUN. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS YET AS SFC DEWPOINTS
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AT THIS TIME ARE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WENT
WITH MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S NORTH-NW TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FROST DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS IT DID 24-48 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER
STILL BELIEVE THAT A SPOT OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY
DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE MID 30S TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION BUT LIMITED
NATURE OF THE LIGHT FROST SUGGEST THAT AN ADVISORY WOULD PROBABLY BE
OVERKILL.
SFC HIGH WILL SCOOT QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY WITH A WARM BREEZY SW SFC
WIND DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER
AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. AGAIN...MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. PREFER TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS
AS MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER.
FOR NOW WILL FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL END OF MOS GUIDANCE...
VARYING FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH A
SFC HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT (UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50). MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S...APPROACHING 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH-SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL NC BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CROSSING
INTO OUR REGION EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST/DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE
FRONT LOSES A LOT OF ITS UPPER SUPPORT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
CENTRAL NC LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MOST PLACES SATURDAY THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT S/W RIDGING
ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL RESULT IN MILD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN SATURDAY AND VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW
IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A S/W RIDGE OVER SE U.S. SUNDAY WILL
MAINTAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NEAR SFC FLOW BECOMES SELY...LEADING
TO A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE
ATLANTIC. SHOWER THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO MENTION IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. SHOWER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AS
DEEP/STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
NC. THIS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC HEATING. BETTER
DYNAMICS/SUPPORT ALOFT WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR A
GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD WITH MAX TEMPS
AVERAGING 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT EXPECT GENERALLY IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP/CONTINUE... WITH EVEN SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY AT
KGSO/KINT. IN ADDITION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS A GIVE LOCATION... ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS TO EVEN 30 KTS IN SHOWERS. EXPECT THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRIAD REGION IN THE 09-11Z TIME
FRAME.... KRDU AROUND 12Z AND KFAY/KRWI 13-16Z. WE MAY SEE SOME OF
THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AT KFAY AND KRWI AS A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF CENTRAL NC. THUS... WILL NOT SHOW
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT KFAY AND KRWI UNTIL 18Z... WITH EVEN A
SMALL THREAT OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TOO. OTHERWISE... EXPECT
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO MORE OF A WNW TO NW DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT... WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER... AT
THIS TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
HAVE TREND A BIT DRIER. OTHERWISE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/KCP
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY: THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NC. EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL THIS MORNING...AS THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ALOFT TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
EXPECT THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST. HOWEVER... WITH THE DEEP MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND PW`S STILL AROUND 1.5+ INCHES
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR EAST EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE
THIS MORNING IN THE 60 TO 80 KT RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE TIME OF MORNING AND RAINFALL FRONT EARLIER TODAY WE REMAIN
RATHER STABLE AT THE SURFACE. THUS.. VERY LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WE ARE NOT EXPECTED MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST RAP DID SHOW MAYBE A 100 J/KG OF
MLCAPE DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES
POINTS GENERALLY ALONG AN EAST OF RALEIGH. THUS... WE CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA... BUT
THE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE SMALL AT BEST.
WITH THE DEEP TROUGH ALOFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA TODAY... WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO START THE DAY EVEN AFTER THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES TO THE
EAST. IN FACT WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST REACHES OF THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO ACROSS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST (OR ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA)... WE MAY SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO LATE IN
THE DAY... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT PERHAPS SEE
THE MOST SUN TODAY. WRT HIGH TEMPS.... STILL THINK WE WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND EAST...
AS WE WILL HAVE HAVE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW... PLUS THICKNESS VALUES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CRASH.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: EXPECT A SERIES OF EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION AS THE DEEP TROUGH ITSELF SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT WE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THOUGH. HOWEVER... WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING
SOME 150 METERS BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE OUR
INSTABILITY ALOFT INCREASE... WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FINAL PASSING SHORTWAVE.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS MODEL
SOUNDING ARE QUITE DRY AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. EXPECT
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S... WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HEIGHT RISES
TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA UNDER BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALSO FORECAST OVER THE AREA. A
MODEST 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WHILE K INDICES FALL LATE IN THE DAY FROM NEAR 20 TO AROUND ZERO BY
NIGHTFALL. JET SUPPORT BY WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY MODEST 850MB LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS. LIFTED INDICES
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST
KM HARDLY REGISTERS ON THE GFS...1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE
STEEP EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AT OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN
7.5C/KM. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ALOFT IS WEAK...INCREASING
AROUND 700MB BY 00Z...BUT FOR THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THEN...IN THE COOL
TROUGH ALOFT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING STABILITY
WITH AN INCREASING CAP ALOFT DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY
SHOWER DIURNAL IN NATURE. FORTUNATELY...DESPITE THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...WINDS ALOFT TO 700MB ARE MAINLY AT
OR BELOW 25KT...AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN VOLUME...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY VERY GUSTY WIND WITH A SHOWER IS CURRENTLY LOW.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES FOR WEDNESDAY SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
MID 60S...AND WITH THE COOL TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DECOUPLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE...AND
THE AIR MASS BECOMES RATHER DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF KFAY. UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE AT NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL EXISTS...AND HAVE CONTINUED A TREND COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...MOSTLY 37 TO 42. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR
REMAINS EXPECTED...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER
SOME AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT U.S. 64 AND COULD BE ADDED TO
LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING TROUGHINESS ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE GFS IS WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
THE WAVE ALOFT AND THE FRONT...THOUGH BOTH MODELS...IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCREASE SURFACE
RIDGING WEST OVER THE GULF SLIGHTLY SUCH THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE MAY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. REGARDLESS OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES...BOTH MODELS SUPPORT WEAKENING
OF THE FRONT SO THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE LOW AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE DAY WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WILL RETAIN THE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AND
DRIER AIR FORECAST BY THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE WILL KEEP CHANCES BELOW
SLIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENTLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS MONDAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS DUE TO A DEEPER UPPER LOW AS A RESULT OF SOME
PHASING OF MODERATE WAVES IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...INTRODUCING GOOD QPF INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. EVEN THE ECMWF...WITH
A FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC...SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
TWO MONDAY...THOUGH WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST
BEYOND THIS LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
CURRENTLY WILL BE TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND GENERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE SYNOPTIC-SCALE DIFFERENCES IN PARTS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THE MOS GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE MEX AND MEE ARE VERY SIMILAR
AND ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS BASED UPON 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST AROUND 70
THURSDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE REST OF THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S THURSDAY NIGHT...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO LOWS TO AROUND 60 MONDAY
NIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THEN TOWARD
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT EXPECT GENERALLY IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP/CONTINUE... WITH EVEN SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY AT
KGSO/KINT. IN ADDITION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS A GIVE LOCATION... ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS TO EVEN 30 KTS IN SHOWERS. EXPECT THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRIAD REGION IN THE 09-11Z TIME
FRAME.... KRDU AROUND 12Z AND KFAY/KRWI 13-16Z. WE MAY SEE SOME OF
THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AT KFAY AND KRWI AS A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF CENTRAL NC. THUS... WILL NOT SHOW
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT KFAY AND KRWI UNTIL 18Z... WITH EVEN A
SMALL THREAT OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TOO. OTHERWISE... EXPECT
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO MORE OF A WNW TO NW DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT... WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER... AT
THIS TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
HAVE TREND A BIT DRIER. OTHERWISE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/KCP
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
157 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SETTLE
OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...
REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS IS RATHER COMPLICATED THIS EVENING...WITH
A LINGERING TRUE WEDGE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...A
RETREATING WARM FROM SLOWLY PENETRATING INTO THE PIEDMONT...A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST...AND THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. CURRENTLY...ALL
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH JUST
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. REGIONAL RADAR SUGGESTS THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THIS BIG QUESTION FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO A
SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT....WHERE THE LATEST RAP
RUNS SHOW 300-400 J/KG MLCAPE...AIDED BY A POCKET STEEPENING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...REDEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FORCING FOR ACCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE AIDED BY
INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
MAKE A MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH EAST. HRRR RUNS HAVE YET TO SHOW ANY
REDEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. SHOWERS ARE ALSO KICKING UP OVER
UPSTATE SC IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT. DRYING MID-LEVEL AIR ANALYZED AT 700MB SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORM LIMITED...BUT IT SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE THAT AN UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...EITHER WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF SC...OR WITH A
FORCED LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT.
FOR THE FORECASTS UPDATE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...WITH LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. WILL ALSO ADJUST
TEMPS TO REFLECT THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT. -SMITH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MID MORNING...
EXPECT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT...WHICH ACCORDING TO THE GFS
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF CENTRAL NC UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HEIGHT RISES
TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA UNDER BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALSO FORECAST OVER THE AREA. A
MODEST 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WHILE K INDICES FALL LATE IN THE DAY FROM NEAR 20 TO AROUND ZERO BY
NIGHTFALL. JET SUPPORT BY WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY MODEST 850MB LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS. LIFTED INDICES
FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST
KM HARDLY REGISTERS ON THE GFS...1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE
STEEP EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AT OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN
7.5C/KM. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ALOFT IS WEAK...INCREASING
AROUND 700MB BY 00Z...BUT FOR THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THEN...IN THE COOL
TROUGH ALOFT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING STABILITY
WITH AN INCREASING CAP ALOFT DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY
SHOWER DIURNAL IN NATURE. FORTUNATELY...DESPITE THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...WINDS ALOFT TO 700MB ARE MAINLY AT
OR BELOW 25KT...AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN VOLUME...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY VERY GUSTY WIND WITH A SHOWER IS CURRENTLY LOW.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES FOR WEDNESDAY SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
MID 60S...AND WITH THE COOL TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DECOUPLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE...AND
THE AIR MASS BECOMES RATHER DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF KFAY. UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE AT NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL EXISTS...AND HAVE CONTINUED A TREND COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...MOSTLY 37 TO 42. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR
REMAINS EXPECTED...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER
SOME AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT U.S. 64 AND COULD BE ADDED TO
LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
THE LONG-TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING TROUGHINESS ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE GFS IS WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH
THE WAVE ALOFT AND THE FRONT...THOUGH BOTH MODELS...IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...INCREASE SURFACE
RIDGING WEST OVER THE GULF SLIGHTLY SUCH THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE MAY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. REGARDLESS OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES...BOTH MODELS SUPPORT WEAKENING
OF THE FRONT SO THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE LOW AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DURING THE DAY WILL REMAIN
DRY...AND WILL RETAIN THE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT AND
DRIER AIR FORECAST BY THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE WILL KEEP CHANCES BELOW
SLIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CURRENTLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS MONDAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF
IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS DUE TO A DEEPER UPPER LOW AS A RESULT OF SOME
PHASING OF MODERATE WAVES IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...INTRODUCING GOOD QPF INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. EVEN THE ECMWF...WITH
A FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC...SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
TWO MONDAY...THOUGH WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST
BEYOND THIS LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
CURRENTLY WILL BE TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AND GENERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE SYNOPTIC-SCALE DIFFERENCES IN PARTS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...THE MOS GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE MEX AND MEE ARE VERY SIMILAR
AND ALSO FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS BASED UPON 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST AROUND 70
THURSDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE REST OF THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S THURSDAY NIGHT...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO LOWS TO AROUND 60 MONDAY
NIGHT BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THEN TOWARD
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT EXPECT GENERALLY IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP/CONTINUE... WITH EVEN SOME LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY AT
KGSO/KINT. IN ADDITION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS A GIVE LOCATION... ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS TO EVEN 30 KTS IN SHOWERS. EXPECT THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRIAD REGION IN THE 09-11Z TIME
FRAME.... KRDU AROUND 12Z AND KFAY/KRWI 13-16Z. WE MAY SEE SOME OF
THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AT KFAY AND KRWI AS A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF CENTRAL NC. THUS... WILL NOT SHOW
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT KFAY AND KRWI UNTIL 18Z... WITH EVEN A
SMALL THREAT OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TOO. OTHERWISE... EXPECT
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO MORE OF A WNW TO NW DIRECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT... WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER... AT
THIS TIME EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
HAVE TREND A BIT DRIER. OTHERWISE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/KCP
NEAR TERM...KCP/SMITH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1028 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
AND PASSES NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS FAIR COOLER WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT MAY BRING SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO
SAT. DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON
MON. A FEW SHOWERS COULD REACH WESTERN AREAS LATE MON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH DEPARTING SW LLJ IS EXITING
EASTERN MA...BUT SHOWERS LIFTING NE FROM S OF NEW ENG WILL AFFECT
THE CAPE/ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ACK PER HRRR SOLUTION.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTS OVER THE COLD WATERS AND WARM FRONT LIFTS N
ACROSS SNE. THE FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AND INCREASE. EXPECT
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN SE
COASTAL NEW ENG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS MID LEVEL TROF LIFTS TO
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER DEVELOP
ACROSS NW ZONES.
925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR 70 AWAY FROM THE
COAST WITH FULL SUNSHINE. BUT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP IT COOLER SO
EXPECT MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 50S IMMEDIATE
S COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS. GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME
SKY COVER MAY LINGER FOR PART OF TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE THE AIRMASS
WILL SHOW A DRYING TREND. MIXING ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 850 MB.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER REACH 25 KNOTS...SO WIND GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -5C...SO MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
* QUICK MOVING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY/MONDAY
MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
OVERALL HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. BELIEVE THAT
PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
FOR THE WEEKEND ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY LEADING UP TO
NEXT WEEK AS STRONG TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
OVERALL 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST STARTING
ON THURSDAY LASTING TO SUNDAY. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT DEF NOT A
WASHOUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP LATE SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
TO FOLLOW ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AROUND TUESDAY. OVERALL TREND IN THE
FORECAST WAS TO LEAN TOWARDS THE EC ENSEMBLES WHICH IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND MORE
AMPLIFIED DETERMINISTIC EC.
DETAILS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE CHILLY AS TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S. HOWEVER RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A WARM-UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER ALONG THE COASTLINE AS SEA-BREEZES SET-UP. WINDS BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY WILL
STRENGTHEN AS LLJ INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH. WHILE THIS OCCURS...RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 20S WHICH COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE FIRE
HEADLINES ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY....
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY SPOUTING OFF A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER A QUICK MOVING
OPEN WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN RESULTING IN THE DEVELOP OF A CLOSED LOW
AT 850MB ALONG THE FRONT. THIS LOW WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SPOUTING OFF MORE SHOWERS. SHOWALTERS
WILL DROP BELOW 0 OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BUT HELD OFF ON
INSERTING THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF SOME
UNCERTAINTY. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF QPF
AMOUNT WITH THE GFS SHOWING OVER AN INCH WITH THE EC CLOSER TO A
HALF OF AN INCH. TRENDED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEAR
0.75 INCHES. UNCERTAIN ON HOW THIS MAY IMPACT THE ALREADY SWOLLEN
RIVERS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
AS WELL AS SMALL STREAM FLOODING. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN LOW TO MID 60S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LONG ISLAND ON SUNDAY MORNING. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
PUSHING THE WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ESP ACROSS THE WEST BUT LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ENFORCING WARM FRONT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH BOTH DAYS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
PERHAPS THE 70S BY MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL WARM UP TO
12C AND WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE KEPT PREV FORECASTERS LOW 70S
INTO THE FORECAST...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
ALL OF THIS IS DUE TO AN 850MB DIGGING TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHEAST.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND....
LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES. REGARDLESS MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
BE 20 DEGREES COOLER THEN TEMPS ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS SHOWS THAT
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS AT PLAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
POSSIBLE THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT. IF TEMPERATURES DROP AS LOW AS
THE EC SUGGEST THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THE RETURN TO A
WINTRY MIX NORTH OF ROUTE 2. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIFR IN DENSE FOG WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING...BUT AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY NEAR THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...IFR
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS DEVELOPING.
TONIGHT...
VFR...EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR/IFR OUTER CAPE/ACK IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...
VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW WITH POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES. MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN CT/RI/SOUTHEAST MA. LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND GUSTS 23-33 KNOTS WITH A GUST TO 36 KNOTS
AT BUZZARDS BAY...ALTHOUGH ELEVATION MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE
BUZZARDS GUST. WINDS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE ARE
35-40 KNOTS NEAR BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE...AND 50-60 KNOTS OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. MUCH OF THIS WILL STAY ALOFT...BUT SOME OF THIS
WIND MAY BE BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS...ESTIMATE CONTINUES
TO BE AROUND 30 KNOTS. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH OBSERVATIONS...SO
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS TODAY.
THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH BELOW 25 KNOTS.
HOWEVER A 5-8 FOOT SWELL WILL LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS AND THE
RI WATERS. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT ON ALL
WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. HEADLINES SHOULD
DROP ON THE MASSACHUSETTS NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WHILE SEAS
CONTINUE TO FEATURE 5-8 FOOT SWELL ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. EXPECT
TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN THOSE AREAS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO RELAX SUCH THAT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO BE DROPPED.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE
SW. BUT THEN WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THU EVENING WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MA OUTER WATERS. SCA WILL
BE NEEDED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH SEAS INCREASING OVER THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
AND EAST OF CAPE COD. WINDS COULD STILL GUST TO 20-30 KT AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
CLOSE TO THE SOUTH SHORE...WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE THE WESTERLY
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AS THE STRONGEST LIFT SHIFTS NORTH. A COLD FRONT COULD
THEN BRING SHOWERS MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. SIX-HOUR RAINFALL RATES
HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 0.25 INCH...SO MOST RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
BELOW 1 INCH. THERE REMAINS A CONCERN FOR AREAS OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING...BUT EVEN THIS RISK IS DIMINISHING. RIVERS
SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING
WOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IF RAINFALL EXCEEDS 2 INCHES.
CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD FORECAST STATEMENTS OR PLEASE GO TO THE
WEB PAGE HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX/PHP?WFO=BOX...THIS
WILL DISPLAY STATUS OF OBSERVATIONS. FOR THE MAP WITH MAX FORECAST
CREST CLICK ON THE RIVER FORECASTS TAB.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
921 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
301 AM CDT
PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND TIMING OF A COOL FRONT THURSDAY AND
ASSOCIATED AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES ARE SOME OF THE CONCERNS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW CONTINUING TO BE IN PLACE WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A
LARGE RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
IS A VORT MAX THAT IS SWINGING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING
BRINGING BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH IT. IN ADDITION...A NARROW SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA/MISSOURI
WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AIDING IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES. FURTHER WEST...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WITH A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE SOUTHERN B.C COAST AHEAD OF IT. THIS ENERGY WILL DRIVE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WHICH WILL BRING THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA. PRESSURE FALLS ARE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
AS THE UPPER WAVES APPROACH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF LAGER SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME COOLING
ALOFT...AND SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUSED LIFT WITH THE SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL CROSS LATER TODAY. THE BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY BE CONFINED TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
INDIANA IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME BEFORE FADING OR EXITING TO THE
EAST. OTHERWISE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE NEXT FOCUSED
TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE MAY BE SOME WEAKER VORT
MAXIMA THAT PASS AHEAD OF IT WHICH COULD DRIVE SOME SPOTTY PRECIP
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING WEST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE
THE BEST TIME LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AND THE
FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A LAKE BREEZE. GIVEN THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THE LAKE BREEZE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH
MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE GREATEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF UPPER TROUGH
TIMING/LAPSE RATES/LAKE BREEZE COME TOGETHER. THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF
THE CHICAGO METRO SOUTH TO THE KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...GIBSON CITY
AREA. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE EXPECTED MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
BUT SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE WEST...BEFORE DIURNAL CU
INCREASES...TO ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP A BIT SO THE FORECAST COULD BE A
LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE BUT OVERALL EXPECT MID 50S WEST AND AROUND
50 EAST...WITH LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE AREAS WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE LAKE MAY SEE AN EARLY
HIGH THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...WITH
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO AFFECTING HOURLY TEMP TRENDS. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER JUST BEYOND SUNSET IN THE EAST BEFORE ENDING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND COOLING TO AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO THROUGH A TRANSITION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE MOVES EAST AND
DE-AMPLIFIES THANKS TO THE TROUGH OFF THE B.C. COAST MOVING INLAND
AND FLATTENING IT. MID LEVEL WARMING WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS H85
TEMPS JUMP TO AROUND +8C BY EVENING AND +12 TO +14C BY THURSDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO A WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 50S
EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THURSDAY BECOME A BIT
TOUGHER THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
LATEST TRENDS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLER SOONER...AROUND
MIDDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE WARMING POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SUGGESTED TO BE POSSIBLE WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS. TIMING STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS COULD
STILL SEE 70 IF CLOUDS CAN BE THIN ENOUGH AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME
CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH IT BUT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH
IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO UPPER FORCING.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE REDUCED AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
FLOW THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
STRONG. THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY
WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME CLOUD COVER BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN
TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
CROSS THE AREA SO THE FLOW MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE
BREEZE SO LAKESHORE AREAS MAY BE HELD TO THE 40S ONCE AGAIN. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SPLIT FLOW TROUGHING WORKING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SATURDAY DRIVING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND ANOTHER SURGE IN TEMPS
WHICH LOOK TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S AT THIS POINT. SATURDAY
LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL MOVE IN
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS THE EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS WILL DICTATE HOW PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM IS
IN CROSSING THE AREA. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF RAIN LOOKS MORE
LIKELY FROM AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY
LONGER WITH THE SPEED OF DEPARTURE BEING MUCH LESS CERTAIN. A GOOD
SIGNAL FOR MUCH COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES WHICH MAY MEAN
SOME MIXED PRECIP/SNOW AS PRECIP ENDS.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS ARND 10 KT BECOME NE 8-10 KT THIS AFTN.
* SCT -SHRA EXPECTED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.
* LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR CIGS PSBL THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE -SHRA.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
SPRINKLES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE TAF SITES AND
STEADILY DISSIPATING. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND
WILL EVENTUALLY FLIP TO NORTHEAST AT ORD/MDW WITH A LAKE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVERGENCE AND LIKELY HELP
TO REDEVELOP SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFT. IN ADDITION SOME
INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF THE LAKE
BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD INITIATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS
A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AND HAVE HELD THIS OUT OF THE TAF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION UPDATED 12Z...
THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND NW WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND IT. THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN TIGHTENING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH NW WINDS AT 6-9 KT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE A LAKE BREEZE
FORMS EARLY THIS AFTN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THERE WILL
BE A SHARP BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF ORD WHERE WINDS WILL BE NE ARND
10 KT EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND NNW WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECTING
A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS TO BLOSSOM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. COULD SEE LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR CIGS WITH THE -SHRA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND
WINDS TURN BACK TO THE NW ARND 5 KT. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN
WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK OVERNIGHT AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...AND WINDS WILL BE SW ARND 10 KT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA THIS AFTN...AND HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR CIGS WILL BE TIED TO -SHRA.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS SHIFTING FROM NW TO NE THIS
AFTN...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE/BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. BRIEF MVFR PSBL.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN...VFR.
SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY. MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR PSBL EARLY.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
223 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER LAKE ERIE AND IT WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVERHEAD AND THEN CONTINUES EASTWARD. THE NEXT LOW PASSES OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ITS COLD
FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT
AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY...AND STILL THINKING IT WILL BE TOO
STABLE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KT AND BECOME WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE
THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTH. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH HOW FAST THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND SO
HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING RIGHT NOW. GUIDANCE DOES AGREE
THAT WINDS TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS SHOW A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END GALES...CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW.
HEADLINES...HIGH WINDS MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN HIGH WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
900 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
Mostly sunny skies currently prevail across central Illinois:
however, with steep low-level lapse rates noted on 12z KILX and
KDVN upper air soundings, think diurnal clouds will quickly
develop later this morning into the afternoon hours. Region
remains under the influence of a high-amplitude trough that has
dug all the way to the Gulf Coast. Several weaker short-waves are
noted within the flow, including one feature currently over
southwest Iowa into eastern Kansas. This particular wave will drop
southeastward and remain largely to the W/SW of Illinois today.
Meanwhile, another subtle wave will drop southeastward out of
Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. This feature will provide enough
lift to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms across the area
this afternoon. Latest HRRR seems to have a reasonable handle on
the current situation, and depicts isolated to scattered
convection developing by around 17/18z. Much of the convection
will be focused across the E/NE KILX CWA in association with the
advancing Wisconsin wave. Have updated the forecast to remove POPs
and reduce sky cover this morning, then have gone with partly
sunny conditions with isolated to scattered showers/thunder this
afternoon. Temp forecast looks to be on track, so made no
adjustments to afternoon highs in the middle to upper 50s. Zone
update has already been issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 648 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
A weak surface trough extending along I-70 and dropping southeast
will continue out of IL this morning. Aloft, a trailing shortwave
will rotate southeast across IL this afternoon triggering
scattered showers. Instability parameters show support for some
isolated thunderstorms, mainly due to steep lapse rates in the low
to mid levels. The better chances will be across eastern IL, so a
VCSH was only included this afternoon in the TAFs for the
eastern terminals of BMI/DEC/CMI. Diurnal stabilization of the
lower troposphere will help to diminish coverage of showers and
any storms by sunset. Dry and clear conditions should prevail
overnight.
Lifted condensation levels look to remain in the VFR category,
with ceilings as low as 3.5K feet this afternoon but not too much
lower than that. Winds will increase from the NW this morning,
with gusts as high as 20kt from late morning through mid
afternoon. Wind direction will remain NW tonight as speeds dip
below 10kt.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 304 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
Low pressure exiting to the east as more northwesterly flow moves
in over the Midwest this morning. Some remnant clouds and weak
echoes over the forecast area on radar imagery this morning. Weak
wave in the large scale trof bringing in another chance of precip.
Some cold air aloft will help to add to some instability this
afternoon and cannot rule out some isolated thunder chances. This
is the first issue for the forecast. Warming through the week and
another weak boundary and system at the end of the weekend. Not
too many changes in the latter two systems. Models in good
agreement through Friday...with some divergence in handling the
Saturday night/Sunday storm.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Another chance for rain as a secondary wave moves into the larger
scale trof aloft...with highs in the 50s. This afternoon will
actually see some colder temps aloft and rather steep lapse rates
in the low levels. Though the instability is weak...narrow and
skinny CAPE in the forecast soundings...it is pretty deep.
Cannot rule out some thunder and small hail with a relatively low
freezing level. Will see the showers coming to an end this
evening. Tomorrow starts a general warming trend with a southerly
component working into the winds. Highs in the 60s.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Forecast continues the warming trend resulting in the warmest day
of the forecast on Thursday with highs approaching 70/the lower
70s. A system passing across the southern tier of Canada drags a
weak frontal boundary across the Great Lakes and the Midwest...but
convergence along the boundary is weak at best. Not to mention
that the flow across the country is predominantly SW/NE
oriented...effectively cutting off the access to deeper Gulf
moisture ahead of the boundary. At this point, pops for Thursday
night remain on the low side through Friday night. Far more
dynamic system expected into the weekend with pops stretching from
Sat night through Sunday for now as the quicker GFS/slower ECMWF
having major timing differences.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
947 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
UPDATED THIS MORNING TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. BEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
OCCUR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNT STERLING...TO PIKEVILLE. AS THE WAVE
EXITS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
AS FOR THUNDER...TIMING IS NOT GREAT AS PRECIPITATION MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET WITH INSTABILITY ALREADY STARTING TO
DECREASE BY THIS TIME. ON TOP OF THIS...SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND THEREFORE
LIMITING THE THUNDER POTENTIAL. OVERALL RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HIGHER POPS...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY
LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING...SO WILL WAIT FOR THE NEW
GUIDANCE BEFORE INCREASING OR DECREASING POPS. WITH THE BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER...HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER TOE AROUND 60 THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED LATEST HOURLY AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TODAY. ACCORDING TO THE MODELS...IT SHOULD BE RAINING NOW SO DECIDED
TO HOLD OFF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS THE FIRST
OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COMES SOME COLD AIR ALOFT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT
ARE POSSIBLE...THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
ARE THE TYPE OF STORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
GRAUPEL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 40.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...AS
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THURSDAY...AND A FLATTENING OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS KY. A
SHALLOW TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR NORTH...WITH A
CLOSED LOW PASSING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES
REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH NEARER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH JAMES BAY AND THEN NEWARD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...A ELONGATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THIS LOW
TO A WEAKER SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER TX. WHILE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
NORTHERN CANADIAN LOW APPEARS TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE...THE SOUTHERN
LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A LINE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...FIRST MOVING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH KY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN BECOMING ORIENTED
FROM W TO E DUE TO THE NORTHERN LOW PROGRESSING MORE QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME LOCALIZED SURFACE LOWS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG
THE LINE...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN KY. LATEST
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION...WITH GOOD FRONTAL LIFT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING...AND DECENT SHEER.
OBVIOUSLY...BEST TIMES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
/FRIDAY/...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS ANY LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS TO
BREAK AND MAXIMUM CAPE VALUES ARE REACHED. CAPE VALUES ARE
MARGINAL...BUT EXPECT FRONTAL LIFT...LLVL WIND SHEAR...AND WARM
BUOYANT PARCELS TO BE ABLE TO LIFT AND CREATE SOME TSTMS ACROSS
THE AREA.
THE W TO E ORIENTED FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE S OF THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION COMING
TO AN END AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS TO EASTERN KY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BRIEF RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD AS WELL.
HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING AS FAR
EAST AS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...IT IS ALSO AT THIS POINT
THAT LONG RANGE MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS...SO WILL RELY
ON THE ALLBLEND FOR ANY SURFACE PRECIP FEATURES AS FAR AS TIMING AND
EXTENT/LOCATION.
AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OUT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT ENE TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THIS SURFACE LOW...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
ENOUGH FRONTAL LIFT THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE PRECIP IS UNDERWAY MONDAY...LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS40 SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE SE OF KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT...EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE
ACROSS KY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR
QUICKLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH BY 12Z TUESDAY JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH EASTERN KY. TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
AFTER 0Z TUESDAY...AS LATEST GFS40 SOUNDINGS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL WARMING LAYER/INVERSION...AND WINDS UNSUPPORTIVE OF BEING ABLE
TO LIFT PARCELS.
OBVIOUSLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...THE TIMING OF SUCH
FEATURES...AS WELL AS THE RESULTING POPS AND QPF...WILL NEED TO BE
TWEAKED AND ADJUSTED AS WE HEAD CLOSER TO THE ONSET. HOWEVER...STILL
FAIRLY IMPRESSED WITH THE AGREEMENT SO FAR BETWEEN THE
GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF...AND FOR THE NAM IN THE MID TERM AS WELL.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LLVL WINDS TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. AS SUCH...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL
ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS MOST DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
THE COLDEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED OVER
KY AND COOLER AIR IS ALLOWED TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...AS WELL AS
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHERE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BOUNCE BACK INTO THE MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MVFR CIGS HAVE RISEN IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND HAVE FORECAST THEM TO RISE AT
JKL AND SJS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. COLD AIR STRATO CUMULUS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT THEN WILL START TO DROP AGAIN AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND IT MAY BE ABLE TO CREATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE VERTICAL PROFILE IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL. THIS HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS OR
JUST WITH RAIN SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1003 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE UPPER FLOW STILL SOUTHWEST AS CAN BE SEEN ON VWP AND SOME
PROFILERS THE FRONT WILL MOVE EVEN SLOWER AS IT PUSHES TO THE
COAST. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THE HRRR AND RUC DEPICTS THESE ECHOES WELL ON ITS
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AND THIS SHOWS THE ECHOES VERY SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTHEAST. CHANGED POPS TO KEEP THEM A LITTLE HIGHER
LONGER ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES CHANGING VERY LITTLE AND HIGHS MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROF SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT BUT YET ANTHR IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES APPRCHS FROM THE WEST AFTR MIDNITE. EXPECT MOST OF THIS
MSTR TO GO INTO CLOUD COVERAGE...SO KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. ANY
PCPN THAT DOES DVLP SHOULD STAY IN NC. LOWS IN THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WED. BEFORE ANY
DRYING OCCURRS...LAST OF THE S/W`S PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NC DURING
THE AFTRN. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW MINIMAL AMTS OF MSTR ACROSS SRN CNTYS.
GIVEN THIS MSTR MOVES THRU DRNG PEAK HEATING HRS...ADDED ISLTD SHWRS
TO SRN CNTYS (MAINLY S OF RT 58). HIGHS IN THE 60S.
ERN TROF FINALLY LIFTS OUT ALLOWING RIDGING TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA WED NITE AND THURS. TSCTNS VOID OF ANY SGNFCNT MSTR SO EXPECT A
M CLR TO PT CLDY PRD. WEAK CAA DMNSHS SETTING UP DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WED NITE. LOWS M-U30S NRN/WRN CNTYS TO U30S-L40S SRN AREAS.
PT TO MSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY. HIGHS U60S-L70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HEADLINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FORECAST WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SE CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CTRL APPALACHIANS FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CENTER OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC FRI...RIDGING SWWD INTO THE GULF
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE AND WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY RETURN
MOISTURE REGARDLESS OF SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH.
THIS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY ON FRI. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVER THE ERN CONUS FRI AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DIGS OVER THE
MIDWEST. MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER NRN VA/MD...
WHICH MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THAT REGION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA...INCLUDING THE
MD ERN SHORE FRI-FRI NIGHT. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON PUSHING THE WEAK
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SAT. TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...THINKING
THE FRONT WILL HAVE TROUBLE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF MORE
ROBUST WITH SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION FRI NIGHT-THURS
MORNING...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...AS WELL AS
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY SAT. SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. MEANWHILE...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THE FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PROPAGATE EWD OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY SUN NIGHT-MON
MORNING. MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS
12+ HRS FASTER WITH THE FRONT/MOISTURE THAN ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART.
HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS BEGINNING MON TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
70S. SLIGHTLY COOLER SAT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NLY WINDS. SLY
WINDS FRI AND SUN-MON WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY COOLER TEMPS ALONG
THE COASTAL ERN SHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO MARGINAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z AS LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT. A LITTLE -RA WILL ALSO MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH SE VA AND NE NC THROUGH 15Z. WEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH MAINLY VFR AND
DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING W-NW BY AFTN AND N-NW TONIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN AOA SCA THRESHOLDS THRU NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
10-15 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF CAA AND STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS (HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW) WILL PRODUCE SUB-SCA
WINDS (AOB 15 KT) OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW 5
FT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 8 PM. SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY
DROP BELOW 5 FT AS EARLY AS NOON TODAY DUE TO SW FLOW REGIME AND MAY
BE ABLE TO DROP SCA`S QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND ADJUST HEADLINES AS NECESSARY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS-THURS RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT-EARLY FRI MORNING...LIKELY STALLING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES HAS CAUSED AREA RIVERS TO RISE
ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY BTWN 1/2 TO 3/4 BANKFULL...GREATEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MAIN STEM RIVERS. THE FRANKLIN STAGE ON THE BLACKWATER
HAS REACHED CAUTION STAGE. WHILE LAWRENCEVILLE ON THE MEHERRIN
RIVER WILL GO TO MINOR FLOODING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
753 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS 24HRS AGO IS NOW
MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME...SHORTWAVE OVER
WRN UPPER MI HAS BEEN GENERATING PESKY -SHRA FROM ISLE ROYALE ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA DURING THE NIGHT. THE -SHRA ARE DRIFTING SSE
INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI ATTM. MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE HAVE WORKED TO LIMIT FOG.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...UTILIZED MOSTLY EXTRAPOLATION/TRENDS TO
SHIFT AN AREA OF ISOLD/SCT -SHRA SSE FROM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD SCNTRL
UPPER MI BEFORE THE -SHRA DISSIPATE. WHERE THE -SHRA ARE
OCCURRING...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
-SHRA...THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR -DZ/-FZDZ TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. BEST CHC SHOULD BE OVER WRN UPPER MI. DWPT AT DISW4 IS STILL
AROUND 35F. AS THIS HIGHER DWPT AIR OVER THE LAKE ADVECTS SSE INTO
WRN UPPER MI WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE AT OR BLO FREEZING...STRATUS/FOG
AND POTENTIALLY -FZDZ SHOULD DEVELOP. THEREAFTER...EXPECT INCREASING
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES...BREAKING UP CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER
THE E WHERE THERE WILL BE A BRISK WIND ACROSS THE LAKE...TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD MOSTLY IN THE LWR 30S TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GENERALLY 30S AND LWR 40S N TO AROUND 50 FAR SCNTRL FROM KIMT TO
NEAR KMNM.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...
PROVIDING LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES...STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN TO THE NW WILL GENERATE SOME PCPN
ACROSS MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW A DECENT TEMP FALL. LOWERED
MINS TOWARD THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE...REPRESENTED BY THE BIAS
CORRECTED REGIONAL AND GLOBAL GEM. TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
SHOULD FALL TO THE MID TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
THE E.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
IS DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS RIDGE MOVES IN...EXPECT A STRONG AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER (AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA) LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MUCH OF THE LAND
CWA...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO JUST BE SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS. BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AFFECT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THIS
AREA OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT THROUGH AND SHOULD LEAD TO A
FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. STRONG WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY (850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C AT 06Z TO AT LEAST 6C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND LOWER VALUES (40S) OVER THE EAST WITH
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SPEAKING OF THOSE
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON (15-25KTS)
AND THAT WILL ALLOW THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS TO WARM AND LIMIT LAKE
BREEZE COOLING.
WHILE THE WARMING IS OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT WILL
STRETCH SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BEST FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN...BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE EXPECTED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPSTREAM SHOWERS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHOWALTER VALUES
AROUND 0 COULD PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY A VERY THIN LINE OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS TO STAY BELOW 0.15IN IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE CWA
BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL SOME BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0C TO -2C AT 850MB. THOSE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE ARE A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES TO NOTE. FIRST...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
TRIES TO BRUSH THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
SECOND...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO
SHIFT EAST THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND COULD KICK OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. GFS IS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE BUT MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE VERY LIMITED.
WILL TREND POPS UP TO LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FOR THE WEEKEND...FOCUS IS ON TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LEADING
PIECES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL PUSH THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS PRECIP WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS STILL SHOWING A WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS/GEM
FAST/SE ECMWF FARTHEST NORTHWEST. A GENERAL BLEND WILL WORK WELL AT
THIS POINT FOR POPS (CHANCES)...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY
MORNING AND SHIFTING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LOCATION OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH HAS A INFLUENCE ON
THE WEATHER FOR THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. BY THAT POINT...THE TWO WAVES THAT ARE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL HAVE MERGED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL BE HELPED BY A THIRD DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE TIMING OF THESE THREE FEATURES AND
HOW FAR EAST THEY END UP WILL DETERMINE PRECIP CHANCES (AND
MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBILITY) FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST AND THE
ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST WHILE THE 00Z GEM IS NOW SIMILAR TO .
THE GFS. WITH THE PHASING OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW AND MODELS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AT THIS POINT...WILL HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD INDICATE PRECIP. WITH THE EXPECTED COLD AIR THAT WILL SPILL IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW AND THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS
CORRECT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGING IN AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS COULD PRODUCE A 6HR PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. WAY TO FAR OUT TO GET TOO EXCITED AT THAT POTENTIAL
AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WISE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN RESEMBLES THE ONE FROM MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER. 850MB
TEMPS DO LOOK TO FALL TOWARD -12C TO -17C FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND
FEEZING ON TUESDAY. FOR THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN ENJOYING THE SPRING
LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT APPEARS THIS
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND RETURN THE AREA
BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MID CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/-DZ/-FZDZ FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...BUT DAYTIME
HEATING MAY YIELD MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AT KIWD/KSAW.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN APPROACHING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND
DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING FROM THE LWR LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...WINDS
WILL PICK UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
ERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WHERE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-25KT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES FROM
MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. WINDS WILL REACH THE 20-30KT
RANGE...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH
PLATFORMS WILL REACH GALE FORCE AT SOME POINT WED/THU. STABLE
LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL WORK AGAINST STRONGER WINDS...BUT
HEALTHY PRES FALLS AHEAD OF LOW WED AND HEALTHY PRES RISES ARRIVING
BEHIND TROF PASSAGE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING MAY BE WHAT PUSHES WINDS
TO GALE FORCE FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THU NIGHT/FRI.
INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED AND WOULD EXPECT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO INCREASE SNOWMELT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON TUESDAY (INCLUDING LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1045 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
.UPDATE...FORECAST FOR TODAY UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
ADJUST TIMING OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MINOR. /BB/
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOCUSED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL DEEP
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA IS FORCING A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BAND
OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE I-55 CORRIDOR. THERE HAS THUS
FAR BEEN VERY LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS. HIRES MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS BAND CONTINUING TO
PROGRESS EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EXITING INTO ALABAMA BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. MORNING REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED WHEN SURFACE TEMPS HIT THE 60 TO 65
DEGREE RANGE...WHICH WILL HAPPEN IN PATCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
EVEN GIVEN RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE AT
LEAST SOME MIXING IN OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH MENTIONED SHOWER BAND AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE BAND THERE
STILL WILL BE AN IMPULSE OR TWO LEFT TO SWING RAPIDLY DOWN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER OUR REGION...WHICH SHOULD KICK UP AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES. HIRES HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS LATTER
ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE SWATHS OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 6 TO 7
PM...POSSIBLY OVER 50 MPH...WHICH IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE OF THE SITUATION AND NO LARGE
ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED. HAIL POTENTIAL AS ADVERTISED SHOULD FAVOR
SMALL HAIL SIZES ALTHOUGH A TOP END STORM FOR THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
ACHIEVE SOME STONES TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
ONE FINAL COMMENT IS THAT LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS SOME CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WHICH IS NOT GOOD NEWS CONSIDERING FLOODING
SITUATION ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LIKELIHOOD OF
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY EXCEEDING AN INCH ARE VERY LOW AND TODAY`S
RAINFALL IN GENERAL IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WORSEN
ANY CURRENT FLOODING. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
HYDROLOGY...MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH ARE EXPECTED ON AVERAGE TODAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO ONE INCH
POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
SERIOUSLY AGGRAVATE THE CURRENT FLOODING SITUATION...BUT ANY RAIN AT
THIS POINT WILL RUN OFF QUICKLY AND POSSIBLY SLOW DOWN THE DRAINAGE
PROCESS. /EC/
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REGARDING THE SET-UP FOR TODAY`S
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK. AN IMPRESSIVELY COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH H500 TEMPERATURES ~ -25 DEG C WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION TODAY. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS BY MID
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN MS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. JET ENERGY DIGGING
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL LINE
UP WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SURFACE-BASED CAPE LIKELY EXCEEDING 700 J/KG. THIS
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL YIELD LOW-TOP NEAR SURFACE-
BASED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 6000
FT..SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH JUST ABOUT ANY STORM AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS COULD CERTAINLY MIX DOWN GIVEN STEEP SUB-CLOUD LAPSE
RATES/ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND 30-35KTS OF LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE HAZARD PRODUCTS AS
THEY ARE WITH A MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND 40-50 MPH WIND
GUST POTENTIAL. AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
/EC/
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AS HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS ITSELF EAST OF THE
REGION...AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY WARM AND MOISTEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO
AND THROUGH THE CWA. JUST AS THE CASE WAS LAST NIGHT...THERE ARE
SOME DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE WITH THEIR TIMING OF SAID SYSTEM IN BRINGING IT
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXITING IT MONDAY
EVENING...WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY DESPITE SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 09/00Z. SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AT THOSE LOACTIONS THAT
MANAGE TO SEE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE NIGHT...BUT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
10-14Z TIMEFRAME FROM FOG./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 64 41 67 43 / 68 27 0 0
MERIDIAN 65 40 68 38 / 70 42 0 0
VICKSBURG 63 41 67 41 / 73 15 0 0
HATTIESBURG 69 44 69 41 / 70 35 0 0
NATCHEZ 65 40 65 43 / 63 20 0 0
GREENVILLE 63 43 67 45 / 80 15 0 0
GREENWOOD 66 43 67 44 / 70 26 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/26/EC/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SWING THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...
AT 1100 AM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM JUST WEST OF
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO NEAR WADESBORO. MUCH DRIER AIR IS
SPILLING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE TRIAD WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. EVEN WITH
MOIST DEW POINTS...INSTABILITY IS RATHER LACKING BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS JOHNSTON AND WILSON COUNTIES
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURNS. RECENT HRRR RUNS NOTED THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE SHOWERS BUT INDICATED A LIMITED AERIAL OVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTE A
DECREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH A FAIRLY THICK VEIL OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STOUT 165+KT JET ALOFT. THE PRIO MORNING UPDATE TRIMMED POPS DOWN TO
JUST THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CAW FOR THIS MORNING AND MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE COUNTERACTIVE
INFLUENECES OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOME SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION.
LEANED HEAVILY UPON THE HRRR HOURLY TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH
RESULTED IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE TRIAGE
AND THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. -BLAES
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: EXPECT A SERIES OF EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION AS THE DEEP TROUGH ITSELF SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT WE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THOUGH. HOWEVER... WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING
SOME 150 METERS BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE OUR
INSTABILITY ALOFT INCREASE... WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FINAL PASSING SHORTWAVE.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS MODEL
SOUNDING ARE QUITE DRY AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. EXPECT
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S... WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... A S/W RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS
AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC HIGH WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY STABLE
AIR LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. SFC
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPS TO COOL
QUICKLY. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS RUN. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS YET AS SFC DEWPOINTS
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AT THIS TIME ARE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WENT
WITH MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S NORTH-NW TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FROST DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS IT DID 24-48 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER
STILL BELIEVE THAT A SPOT OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY
DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE MID 30S TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION BUT LIMITED
NATURE OF THE LIGHT FROST SUGGEST THAT AN ADVISORY WOULD PROBABLY BE
OVERKILL.
SFC HIGH WILL SCOOT QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY WITH A WARM BREEZY SW SFC
WIND DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER
AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. AGAIN...MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. PREFER TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS
AS MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER.
FOR NOW WILL FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL END OF MOS GUIDANCE...
VARYING FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH A
SFC HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT (UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50). MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S...APPROACHING 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH-SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL NC BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CROSSING
INTO OUR REGION EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST/DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE
FRONT LOSES A LOT OF ITS UPPER SUPPORT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
CENTRAL NC LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MOST PLACES SATURDAY THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT S/W RIDGING
ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL RESULT IN MILD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN SATURDAY AND VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW
IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A S/W RIDGE OVER SE U.S. SUNDAY WILL
MAINTAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NEAR SFC FLOW BECOMES SELY...LEADING
TO A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE
ATLANTIC. SHOWER THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO MENTION IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. SHOWER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AS
DEEP/STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
NC. THIS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC HEATING. BETTER
DYNAMICS/SUPPORT ALOFT WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR A
GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD WITH MAX TEMPS
AVERAGING 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES A GIVEN LOCATION EXPECT CIGS SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR WHEN IN A FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT KGSO
AND KINT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KRDU IN THE 13-15Z
TIMEFRAME... THEN KFAY AND KRWI IN THE 15-18Z TIMEFRAME. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT KFAY AND KRWI
THROUGH AROUND 15Z. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND FAIRLY
LIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO KRDU BY AROUND MID MORNING
TODAY. WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AT KFAY
AND KRWI AS A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF CENTRAL NC. THUS... WILL NOT
SHOW CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT KFAY AND KRWI UNTIL 18Z (AND COULD
EVEN LINGER AS LATE AS 21Z). OTHERWISE... EXPECT WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO MORE OF A WNW TO NW DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER... SKIES AREA EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY TO AT TIME
MOSTLY CLOUDY (VFR CIGS THOUGH) AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER... AT
THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT DRIER. OTHERWISE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
757 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
TODAY: THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NC. EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL THIS MORNING...AS THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ALOFT TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
EXPECT THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST. HOWEVER... WITH THE DEEP MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND PW`S STILL AROUND 1.5+ INCHES
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR EAST EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE
THIS MORNING IN THE 60 TO 80 KT RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE TIME OF MORNING AND RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY WE REMAIN
RATHER STABLE AT THE SURFACE. THUS.. VERY LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WE ARE NOT EXPECTED MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST RAP DID SHOW MAYBE A 100 J/KG OF
MLCAPE DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES
POINTS GENERALLY ALONG AN EAST OF RALEIGH. THUS... WE CANT RULE OUT
A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA... BUT
THE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE SMALL AT BEST.
WITH THE DEEP TROUGH ALOFT EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA TODAY... WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO START THE DAY EVEN AFTER THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES TO THE
EAST. IN FACT WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST REACHES OF THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY PRECIP AFTER 18Z OR SO ACROSS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST (OR ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA)... WE MAY SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO LATE IN
THE DAY... WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT PERHAPS SEE
THE MOST SUN TODAY. WRT HIGH TEMPS.... STILL THINK WE WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND EAST...
AS WE WILL HAVE HAVE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW... PLUS THICKNESS VALUES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CRASH.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: EXPECT A SERIES OF EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION AS THE DEEP TROUGH ITSELF SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT WE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THOUGH. HOWEVER... WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING
SOME 150 METERS BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE OUR
INSTABILITY ALOFT INCREASE... WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FINAL PASSING SHORTWAVE.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS MODEL
SOUNDING ARE QUITE DRY AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. EXPECT
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S... WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... A S/W RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS
AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC HIGH WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY STABLE
AIR LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. SFC
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPS TO COOL
QUICKLY. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS RUN. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS YET AS SFC DEWPOINTS
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AT THIS TIME ARE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WENT
WITH MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S NORTH-NW TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FROST DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS IT DID 24-48 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER
STILL BELIEVE THAT A SPOT OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY
DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE MID 30S TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION BUT LIMITED
NATURE OF THE LIGHT FROST SUGGEST THAT AN ADVISORY WOULD PROBABLY BE
OVERKILL.
SFC HIGH WILL SCOOT QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY WITH A WARM BREEZY SW SFC
WIND DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER
AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. AGAIN...MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. PREFER TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS
AS MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER.
FOR NOW WILL FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL END OF MOS GUIDANCE...
VARYING FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH A
SFC HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT (UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50). MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S...APPROACHING 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH-SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL NC BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CROSSING
INTO OUR REGION EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST/DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE
FRONT LOSES A LOT OF ITS UPPER SUPPORT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
CENTRAL NC LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MOST PLACES SATURDAY THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT S/W RIDGING
ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL RESULT IN MILD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN SATURDAY AND VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW
IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A S/W RIDGE OVER SE U.S. SUNDAY WILL
MAINTAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NEAR SFC FLOW BECOMES SELY...LEADING
TO A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE
ATLANTIC. SHOWER THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO MENTION IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. SHOWER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AS
DEEP/STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
NC. THIS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC HEATING. BETTER
DYNAMICS/SUPPORT ALOFT WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR A
GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD WITH MAX TEMPS
AVERAGING 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 755 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES A GIVEN LOCATION EXPECT CIGS SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR WHEN IN A FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT KGSO
AND KINT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KRDU IN THE 13-15Z
TIMEFRAME... THEN KFAY AND KRWI IN THE 15-18Z TIMEFRAME. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT KFAY AND KRWI
THROUGH AROUND 15Z. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND FAIRLY
LIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO KRDU BY AROUND MID MORNING
TODAY. WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AT KFAY
AND KRWI AS A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
OUR FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF CENTRAL NC. THUS... WILL NOT
SHOW CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT KFAY AND KRWI UNTIL 18Z (AND COULD
EVEN LINGER AS LATE AS 21Z). OTHERWISE... EXPECT WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO MORE OF A WNW TO NW DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER... SKIES AREA EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY TO AT TIME
MOSTLY CLOUDY (VFR CIGS THOUGH) AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER... AT
THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT DRIER. OTHERWISE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/KCP
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1014 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
&&
.MARINE...MIXING OF NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE SURFACE GETTING UNDERWAY
THIS MORNING BUT WINDS HOLDING IN THE 12-15 KNOT RANGE WITH FEW
HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WITH LIMITED COLD ADVECTION
EVEN THOUGH 850 MB WINDS SIT ON 30-33 KNOTS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN A BIT. MOST RECENT NAM DATA IN THE 950-925 MB LAYER
INDICATE 20-22 KNOTS WITH LESS TOWARD THE SURFACE...AND IT MAY BE
A BIT TOUGH TO REALIZE 20 KNOT SUSTAINED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN LEG WHICH IS FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ADVISORY/CAUTION
AS IS AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CANCELLATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
52/BSG
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LATEST 12Z NAM AND 12Z HRRR ARE RIGHT IN TUNE WITH
THE CURRENT THINKING ON 20 FOOT WINDS...WITH A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SURGE ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
DIMINISHING BELOW 15 MPH AS THE LOWEST RH APPROACHES. IN THE
WARNING AREA...THE 15+ MPH 20 FOOT NORTHWEST WINDS LINE UP WITH
THE SHARPEST DEW POINT DROP BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE HOW LOW THE HUMIDITY FALLS...WE NEED TO DROP JUST BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO REALIZE THE `FLASH DROUGHT`
SITUATION THAT CAN CAUSE RAPID WILDFIRE GROWTH AND THAT MAY BE A
STRETCH BUT SITUATION IS RIGHT ON THE FENCE SO NO REASON TO REMOVE
THE SAFETY VALVE OF THE WARNING FOR NOW.
52/BSG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. WINDS WILL GUST AT 18
TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
CLEAR ON WATER VAPOR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. MOST
EVIDENT AREAS OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE NOW EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE RADAR BECOMING INCREASINGLY QUIET OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...
AND PATCHES OF FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN CAMERON AND
WILLACY COUNTY.
TODAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CLEARS TO THE EAST A
REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. NAM12 AND ARW/NMM 00Z GUIDANCE PRODUCES WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MET AND MAV MOS DO NOT SHOW DEW POINTS THIS
LOW...BUT SUSPECT THE CLIMATOLOGY SIGNAL IS TOO STRONG IN THE
DATASET FOR THE ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW MODEL
OUTPUT BASED ON THE SOURCE AIR MASS IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 0 TO 10 DEGREES F IN THAT AREA. DEW
POINTS WILL DROP QUICKLY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WITH VERTICAL
MIXING COMBINING WITH ADVECTION OF VERY DRY AIR. THERE WILL BE
VERY WEAK NET COLD ADVECTION ONGOING BUT WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING 850/700MB THICKNESS VALUES...CONTINUED A LITTLE WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE ON FORECAST MAXES. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR 20 KNOT MARINE WINDS AND NAM/HIGH RES DEPICTION
OF LOWER WINDS NEAR SHORE AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OFFSHORE MAKES
SENSE GIVEN SATELLITE DERIVED AND OBSERVED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
OBS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES AND
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL BUT ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF 15 MPH 20 FOOT WIND AND AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE TOO LOW
IN JIM HOGG AND ZAPATA COUNTY FOR A WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT AMID
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. VERY DRY
NEAR SURFACE AIR AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SLOW RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THOSE WINDS ALTHOUGH IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO RECHARGE THE WESTERN GULF AIR MASS
AFTER THE ONSLAUGHT OF VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
WITH THAT...PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND A STEADY BUT NOT OVER
WHELMING SOUTHEAST BREEZE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND WILL MAINTAIN A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REPEAT
THURSDAY AFTN...DIPPING INTO THE 20S OUT WEST AND ENHANCING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS A BIT. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE
50S...WHILE HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTH
GULF...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY RANGE...WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
STILL DOMINATE JUST UPSTREAM...BUT A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LWR
WEST COAST...AND THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL FLATTEN. FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH/LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN SOUTHWEST HELPS DESTABILIZE THINGS A BIT OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER FRONT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...AS THE EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH
COINCIDES WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS
BRINGS A GOO AMOUNT OF RAIN THE THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN NORTH OF THE CWA BUT
BRINGS A SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH THE RGV MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
CHOSE TO GO WITH A BLEND...SINCE TIMING ISSUES WERE NOT EXTREME...
AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS STILL AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST...
AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
THAT MIGHT MATERIALIZE...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT COINCIDING WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER AND
AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A
PHASING TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY POST FRONT WITH AN
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A HANDFUL OF DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AS SKIES CLEAR.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
NEARSHORE WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE NEARSHORE AND LIKELY
AT LEAST BRIEFLY BECOME ROUGH OFFSHORE. BETTER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL INITIALIZE THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THEREAFTER THOUGH...THROUGH
SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH 20 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
TO 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE AS LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTERACTS WITH GULF HIGH PRESSURE TO GENERATE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW TO NEARLY NONEXISTENT.
FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. A SURGE
OF NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND
12 TO 18 PERCENT WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STARR...BROOKS...KENEDY...AND
INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES TODAY AND ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASING.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ250>255.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
111 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1106 AM CDT
MORNING UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AND IT WILL PUSH INLAND
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE WILL FURTHER STEEPEN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS LAKE BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH AREAS FROM THE LAKEFRONT TO 5 TO 10
MILES INLAND LIKELY REMAINING DRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
STABILIZING MARINE ENVIRONMENT AS THE LAKE BREEZE PLOWS
INLAND...AND STABILIZATION OCCURRING FURTHER INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER...ITS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL CAPE WILL REACH HIGH ENOUGH
ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL TO ENABLE LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. SOME OF
THE HI-RES NEAR TERM GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY BULLISH ON SHOWER COVERAGE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR HIGHER
COVERAGE MENTION THAN CURRENTLY FEATURED IN THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS AND ALSO
BUMPED UP INLAND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO 925 MB CLIMO
FOR EARLY APRIL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS COULD APPROACH
60 DEGREES. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
RC
//PREV DISCUSSION...
301 AM CDT
PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND TIMING OF A COOL FRONT THURSDAY AND
ASSOCIATED AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES ARE SOME OF THE CONCERNS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW CONTINUING TO BE IN PLACE WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A
LARGE RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
IS A VORT MAX THAT IS SWINGING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING
BRINGING BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH IT. IN ADDITION...A NARROW SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA/MISSOURI
WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AIDING IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES. FURTHER WEST...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WITH A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE SOUTHERN B.C COAST AHEAD OF IT. THIS ENERGY WILL DRIVE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WHICH WILL BRING THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA. PRESSURE FALLS ARE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
AS THE UPPER WAVES APPROACH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF LAGER SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME COOLING
ALOFT...AND SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUSED LIFT WITH THE SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL CROSS LATER TODAY. THE BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY BE CONFINED TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW
INDIANA IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME BEFORE FADING OR EXITING TO THE
EAST. OTHERWISE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE NEXT FOCUSED
TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE MAY BE SOME WEAKER VORT
MAXIMA THAT PASS AHEAD OF IT WHICH COULD DRIVE SOME SPOTTY PRECIP
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING WEST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE
THE BEST TIME LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AND THE
FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A LAKE BREEZE. GIVEN THE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THE LAKE BREEZE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH
MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE GREATEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF UPPER TROUGH
TIMING/LAPSE RATES/LAKE BREEZE COME TOGETHER. THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF
THE CHICAGO METRO SOUTH TO THE KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...GIBSON CITY
AREA. HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE EXPECTED MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
BUT SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE WEST...BEFORE DIURNAL CU
INCREASES...TO ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP A BIT SO THE FORECAST COULD BE A
LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE BUT OVERALL EXPECT MID 50S WEST AND AROUND
50 EAST...WITH LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
SOME OF THESE AREAS WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE LAKE MAY SEE AN EARLY
HIGH THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...WITH
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO AFFECTING HOURLY TEMP TRENDS. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY LINGER JUST BEYOND SUNSET IN THE EAST BEFORE ENDING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND COOLING TO AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO THROUGH A TRANSITION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE MOVES EAST AND
DE-AMPLIFIES THANKS TO THE TROUGH OFF THE B.C. COAST MOVING INLAND
AND FLATTENING IT. MID LEVEL WARMING WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS H85
TEMPS JUMP TO AROUND +8C BY EVENING AND +12 TO +14C BY THURSDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO A WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 50S
EAST TO LOWER 60S WEST WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THURSDAY BECOME A BIT
TOUGHER THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
LATEST TRENDS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLER SOONER...AROUND
MIDDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE WARMING POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SUGGESTED TO BE POSSIBLE WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS. TIMING STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS COULD
STILL SEE 70 IF CLOUDS CAN BE THIN ENOUGH AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME
CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH IT BUT THE BEST FORCING WILL BE FURTHER NORTH
IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO UPPER FORCING.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE REDUCED AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
FLOW THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
STRONG. THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY
WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME CLOUD COVER BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN
TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
CROSS THE AREA SO THE FLOW MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE
BREEZE SO LAKESHORE AREAS MAY BE HELD TO THE 40S ONCE AGAIN. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SPLIT FLOW TROUGHING WORKING INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SATURDAY DRIVING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND ANOTHER SURGE IN TEMPS
WHICH LOOK TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S AT THIS POINT. SATURDAY
LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME BUT THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL MOVE IN
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS THE EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS WILL DICTATE HOW PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM IS
IN CROSSING THE AREA. REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF RAIN LOOKS MORE
LIKELY FROM AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY
LONGER WITH THE SPEED OF DEPARTURE BEING MUCH LESS CERTAIN. A GOOD
SIGNAL FOR MUCH COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES WHICH MAY MEAN
SOME MIXED PRECIP/SNOW AS PRECIP ENDS.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* WINDS ARND 020-040 TO 10KT...WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME 040 AND
SPEEDS THRU THIS EVE TO 8KT.
* LAKE BREEZE PUSHING THRU WITH SOME BUILDING CLOUDS...TEMPO CIGS
ARND 3KFT AGL.
* WINDS RELAXING TO NW OVERNIGHT ARND 4-6KT...MAY BRIEFLY GO VRB
DIR AND POTENTIALLY CALM FOR A COUPLE HRS BEFORE DAYBREAK WED.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING MID-MORNING WED WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 16-19KT.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LAKE BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND WAS SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND. EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON THE BREEZE STRETCHED FROM NEAR ORD SOUTHEAST TO
MDW. THIS BREEZE WILL STEADILY PUSH INLAND AND BRING NE WINDS TO
ORD/MDW. THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR LIFT
AND BUILD THE CLOUDS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THIS WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING
UNSTABLE ARND 4000-9000FT AND COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF ORD/MDW. IT APPEARS THAT ALL OF THE
CUMULUS/PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
SHOULD ONLY LINGER THRU 22-23Z...THEN BY 01Z CLOUDS WILL BE
CLEARING BACK OUT WITH JUST A CIRRUS DECK REMAINING. A FEW
GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING SOME LINGERING LLVL
MOISTURE...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME ONLY ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
A MENTION OF FEW. THIS MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO BE PULLED THOUGH.
WINDS WILL BE RELAXING BACK TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS ARND 5-8KT. WITH A VERY LIGHT GRADIENT SETTING UP
OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT A PERIOD OF TIME MAY SEE
WINDS BECOME VRB TO CALM JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WED. THE GRADIENT
THEN PICKS UP JUST AFT DAYBREAK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO
ARND 10KT AND SHUD START TO SEE GUSTS NEARING 16-19KT BY MIDDAY
WED.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF ORD...HIGH
CONFIDECE IN PRECIP WEST OF MDW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST THRU THIS EVE.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. BRIEF MVFR PSBL.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN...VFR.
SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY. MVFR PSBL.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR PSBL EARLY.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
223 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER LAKE ERIE AND IT WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVERHEAD AND THEN CONTINUES EASTWARD. THE NEXT LOW PASSES OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ITS COLD
FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT
AHEAD OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY...AND STILL THINKING IT WILL BE TOO
STABLE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KT AND BECOME WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE LATE
THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTH. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH HOW FAST THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND SO
HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING RIGHT NOW. GUIDANCE DOES AGREE
THAT WINDS TURN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS SHOW A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW END GALES...CAPPED WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW.
HEADLINES...HIGH WINDS MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN HIGH WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1240 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
Mostly sunny skies currently prevail across central Illinois:
however, with steep low-level lapse rates noted on 12z KILX and
KDVN upper air soundings, think diurnal clouds will quickly
develop later this morning into the afternoon hours. Region
remains under the influence of a high-amplitude trough that has
dug all the way to the Gulf Coast. Several weaker short-waves are
noted within the flow, including one feature currently over
southwest Iowa into eastern Kansas. This particular wave will drop
southeastward and remain largely to the W/SW of Illinois today.
Meanwhile, another subtle wave will drop southeastward out of
Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. This feature will provide enough
lift to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms across the area
this afternoon. Latest HRRR seems to have a reasonable handle on
the current situation, and depicts isolated to scattered
convection developing by around 17/18z. Much of the convection
will be focused across the E/NE KILX CWA in association with the
advancing Wisconsin wave. Have updated the forecast to remove POPs
and reduce sky cover this morning, then have gone with partly
sunny conditions with isolated to scattered showers/thunder this
afternoon. Temp forecast looks to be on track, so made no
adjustments to afternoon highs in the middle to upper 50s. Zone
update has already been issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
Diurnal CU field is currently developing across central Illinois
and will become most prevalent along and east of I-57 this
afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest low VFR ceilings of 3500 to
4000ft at KCMI, with lesser coverage/higher bases further west at
the remaining terminals. Will include VCSH at KCMI as well, as a
few showers are beginning to develop upstream over northeast
Illinois. Clouds/widely scattered showers will quickly dissipate
shortly after sunset, followed by clear skies overnight into
Wednesday morning. Winds will initially be gusty from the
northwest this afternoon, then will subside to less than 10kt by
this evening. As high pressure slides across the area, winds will
become W/SW by Wednesday morning.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 304 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2014
Low pressure exiting to the east as more northwesterly flow moves
in over the Midwest this morning. Some remnant clouds and weak
echoes over the forecast area on radar imagery this morning. Weak
wave in the large scale trof bringing in another chance of precip.
Some cold air aloft will help to add to some instability this
afternoon and cannot rule out some isolated thunder chances. This
is the first issue for the forecast. Warming through the week and
another weak boundary and system at the end of the weekend. Not
too many changes in the latter two systems. Models in good
agreement through Friday...with some divergence in handling the
Saturday night/Sunday storm.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Another chance for rain as a secondary wave moves into the larger
scale trof aloft...with highs in the 50s. This afternoon will
actually see some colder temps aloft and rather steep lapse rates
in the low levels. Though the instability is weak...narrow and
skinny CAPE in the forecast soundings...it is pretty deep.
Cannot rule out some thunder and small hail with a relatively low
freezing level. Will see the showers coming to an end this
evening. Tomorrow starts a general warming trend with a southerly
component working into the winds. Highs in the 60s.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Forecast continues the warming trend resulting in the warmest day
of the forecast on Thursday with highs approaching 70/the lower
70s. A system passing across the southern tier of Canada drags a
weak frontal boundary across the Great Lakes and the Midwest...but
convergence along the boundary is weak at best. Not to mention
that the flow across the country is predominantly SW/NE
oriented...effectively cutting off the access to deeper Gulf
moisture ahead of the boundary. At this point, pops for Thursday
night remain on the low side through Friday night. Far more
dynamic system expected into the weekend with pops stretching from
Sat night through Sunday for now as the quicker GFS/slower ECMWF
having major timing differences.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
555 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO DECENT SFC BASED HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE OCCASIONAL
STRIKES WE CONTINUE TO PICK UP WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO
THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE TO
INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...VERY EARLY
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO
AREAS WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...IN PULASKI/WAYNE AND SHOULD DIE
OFF WITH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MID LEVEL TROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED
OUT QUITE WELL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A FEW PLACES GETTING
CLOSE TO 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON
PRECIPITATION AS IT TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. NAM SEEMS
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE ON GENERATING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS AND
THE AMBIENT DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...NOT CONFIDENT THE NAM HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN HOW LOW DEWPOINTS
HAVE GONE IN THE PAST WEEK ON DRY AFTERNOONS...OPTING TO KEEP THINGS
WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...BRINGING IN SOME NEAR 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES LINGERING INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...A COOLER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WHERE SOME FROST WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
A MORE ZONAL LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. AMPLIFICATION
WILL THEN ENSUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND WORKS ITS WAY EAST. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...AND THEN LARGER DIFFERENCES CROP
UP WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A
BLEND...ALTHOUGH DID FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF THE HIGHER
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPER SYSTEM...SINCE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED THIS WAY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL REIGN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AT TIMES. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA...SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE LATEST
BLEND AND THE INHERITED POPS...WITH THE OVERALL BETTER CHANCES
NORTH...AND LESS TO THE SOUTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
IN PLACE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. DEEP TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST BY
MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE NOTED SLOWER TREND...WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE
TAF SITES. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AND MAY SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN GENERATE SOME RAIN AND SATURATE THINGS
ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW WELL DEWPOINTS HAVE COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT TASK. SO FOR NOW...GOING TO GO
WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF AND KEEP THINGS VFR. IF CIGS DO LOWER
TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK UP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA AND CLOUDS ERODE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
427 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MID LEVEL TROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED
OUT QUITE WELL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A FEW PLACES GETTING
CLOSE TO 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON
PRECIPITATION AS IT TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. NAM SEEMS
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE ON GENERATING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS AND
THE AMBIENT DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...NOT CONFIDENT THE NAM HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN HOW LOW DEWPOINTS
HAVE GONE IN THE PAST WEEK ON DRY AFTERNOONS...OPTING TO KEEP THINGS
WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...BRINGING IN SOME NEAR 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES LINGERING INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...A COOLER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WHERE SOME FROST WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
A MORE ZONAL LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. AMPLIFICATION
WILL THEN ENSUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND WORKS ITS WAY EAST. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...AND THEN LARGER DIFFERENCES CROP
UP WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO A
BLEND...ALTHOUGH DID FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF THE HIGHER
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPER SYSTEM...SINCE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED THIS WAY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL REIGN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HELPING TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AT TIMES. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA...SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE LATEST
BLEND AND THE INHERITED POPS...WITH THE OVERALL BETTER CHANCES
NORTH...AND LESS TO THE SOUTH.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
IN PLACE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S. DEEP TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST BY
MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE NOTED SLOWER TREND...WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE
TAF SITES. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AND MAY SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN GENERATE SOME RAIN AND SATURATE THINGS
ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW WELL DEWPOINTS HAVE COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT TASK. SO FOR NOW...GOING TO GO
WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF AND KEEP THINGS VFR. IF CIGS DO LOWER
TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK UP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA AND CLOUDS ERODE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
329 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MID LEVEL TROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED
OUT QUITE WELL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A FEW PLACES GETTING
CLOSE TO 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON
PRECIPITATION AS IT TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...HRRR AND RAP BOTH SHOW SOME ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. NAM SEEMS
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE ON GENERATING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS AND
THE AMBIENT DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...NOT CONFIDENT THE NAM HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN HOW LOW DEWPOINTS
HAVE GONE IN THE PAST WEEK ON DRY AFTERNOONS...OPTING TO KEEP THINGS
WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...BRINGING IN SOME NEAR 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES LINGERING INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...A COOLER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WHERE SOME FROST WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE
TAF SITES. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AND MAY SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN GENERATE SOME RAIN AND SATURATE THINGS
ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW WELL DEWPOINTS HAVE COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT TASK. SO FOR NOW...GOING TO GO
WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF AND KEEP THINGS VFR. IF CIGS DO LOWER
TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK UP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA AND CLOUDS ERODE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
242 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING
THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA. MORNING
CLOUD COVER HAS TURNED INTO A SCATTERED DECK OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE
AREA. UPSTREAM...MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS INDIANA...SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. BASED ON THE TIMING AND LATEST HI RES
GUIDANCE...STILL LOOKS LIKE A LATE ARRIVAL TIME FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH ANY SHOWERS HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 7 PM THIS EVENING.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
UPDATED THIS MORNING TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. BEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
OCCUR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNT STERLING...TO PIKEVILLE. AS THE WAVE
EXITS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
AS FOR THUNDER...TIMING IS NOT GREAT AS PRECIPITATION MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET WITH INSTABILITY ALREADY STARTING TO
DECREASE BY THIS TIME. ON TOP OF THIS...SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND THEREFORE
LIMITING THE THUNDER POTENTIAL. OVERALL RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HIGHER POPS...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY
LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING...SO WILL WAIT FOR THE NEW
GUIDANCE BEFORE INCREASING OR DECREASING POPS. WITH THE BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER...HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER TOE AROUND 60 THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED LATEST HOURLY AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TODAY. ACCORDING TO THE MODELS...IT SHOULD BE RAINING NOW SO DECIDED
TO HOLD OFF THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS THE FIRST
OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COMES SOME COLD AIR ALOFT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT
ARE POSSIBLE...THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
ARE THE TYPE OF STORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
GRAUPEL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 40.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...AS
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THURSDAY...AND A FLATTENING OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS KY. A
SHALLOW TROUGHING PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR NORTH...WITH A
CLOSED LOW PASSING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES
REGION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH NEARER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH JAMES BAY AND THEN NEWARD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...A ELONGATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THIS LOW
TO A WEAKER SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER TX. WHILE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
NORTHERN CANADIAN LOW APPEARS TO BE VERY PROGRESSIVE...THE SOUTHERN
LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A LINE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...FIRST MOVING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH KY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN BECOMING ORIENTED
FROM W TO E DUE TO THE NORTHERN LOW PROGRESSING MORE QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME LOCALIZED SURFACE LOWS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG
THE LINE...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN KY. LATEST
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION...WITH GOOD FRONTAL LIFT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING...AND DECENT SHEER.
OBVIOUSLY...BEST TIMES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
/FRIDAY/...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS ANY LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS TO
BREAK AND MAXIMUM CAPE VALUES ARE REACHED. CAPE VALUES ARE
MARGINAL...BUT EXPECT FRONTAL LIFT...LLVL WIND SHEAR...AND WARM
BUOYANT PARCELS TO BE ABLE TO LIFT AND CREATE SOME TSTMS ACROSS
THE AREA.
THE W TO E ORIENTED FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE S OF THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION COMING
TO AN END AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS TO EASTERN KY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BRIEF RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD AS WELL.
HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING AS FAR
EAST AS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...IT IS ALSO AT THIS POINT
THAT LONG RANGE MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS...SO WILL RELY
ON THE ALLBLEND FOR ANY SURFACE PRECIP FEATURES AS FAR AS TIMING AND
EXTENT/LOCATION.
AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OUT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT ENE TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THIS SURFACE LOW...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
ENOUGH FRONTAL LIFT THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE PRECIP IS UNDERWAY MONDAY...LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS40 SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE SE OF KY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT...EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE
ACROSS KY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR
QUICKLY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH BY 12Z TUESDAY JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH EASTERN KY. TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
AFTER 0Z TUESDAY...AS LATEST GFS40 SOUNDINGS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL WARMING LAYER/INVERSION...AND WINDS UNSUPPORTIVE OF BEING ABLE
TO LIFT PARCELS.
OBVIOUSLY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...THE TIMING OF SUCH
FEATURES...AS WELL AS THE RESULTING POPS AND QPF...WILL NEED TO BE
TWEAKED AND ADJUSTED AS WE HEAD CLOSER TO THE ONSET. HOWEVER...STILL
FAIRLY IMPRESSED WITH THE AGREEMENT SO FAR BETWEEN THE
GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF...AND FOR THE NAM IN THE MID TERM AS WELL.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LLVL WINDS TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES. AS SUCH...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL
ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS MOST DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
THE COLDEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED OVER
KY AND COOLER AIR IS ALLOWED TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...AS WELL AS
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHERE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BOUNCE BACK INTO THE MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE
TAF SITES. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD AND MAY SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN GENERATE SOME RAIN AND SATURATE THINGS
ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW WELL DEWPOINTS HAVE COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT TASK. SO FOR NOW...GOING TO GO
WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF AND KEEP THINGS VFR. IF CIGS DO LOWER
TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK UP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA AND CLOUDS ERODE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
531 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
530PM UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LEADING EDGE OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS GROW A LITTLE MORE INTENSE. HAVE UPDATED
HOURLY POP FORECAST AND RELIED HEAVILY ON THE HRRR MODEL WHICH
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS BAND OF SHOWERS FAIRLY WELL. FOG HAS
MOVED IN TO COASTAL AREAS WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE.
HOWEVER... AS WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT THIS FOG WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AND IT WILL BRING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS OUR
WINDS SHIFT ACROSS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL GIVE US SOME
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW...THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KICK OFF SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL CREST OVERHEAD. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS GO
LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO QUICKLY MOVE THRU THE AREA. SKIES CLEAR ON
FRIDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW. BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY NE THRU NEW ENGLAND AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS THAT WOULD BE ENDING BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR
BEFORE A STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS UP BY MID SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU MONDAY EVENING BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.
WITH THE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD STAYED CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR TIMING OF PCPN. INCREASED MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
TO IFR AS CLOUDS WILL LIFT WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER SEAS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW AND
THIS WILL HELP KICK OFF SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TOMORROW...SO IT APPEARS THAT THE SCA WILL REMAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
IN AN INCREASING SOUTH FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AND GUSTS
UP TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS DROP BELOW
SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT MAY INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE SUNCOOK RIVER AT NORTH CHICHESTER REMAINS IN A RIVER FLOOD
WARNING. SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THE NIGHT DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE
DAY... HOWEVER ANY FLOODING WILL BE VERY MINOR.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... KISTNER
LONG TERM... MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
223 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE UPPER FLOW STILL SOUTHWEST AS CAN BE SEEN ON VWP AND SOME
PROFILERS THE FRONT WILL MOVE EVEN SLOWER AS IT PUSHES TO THE
COAST. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THE HRRR AND RUC DEPICTS THESE ECHOES WELL ON ITS
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AND THIS SHOWS THE ECHOES VERY SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTHEAST. CHANGED POPS TO KEEP THEM A LITTLE HIGHER
LONGER ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES CHANGING VERY LITTLE AND HIGHS MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROF SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT BUT YET ANTHR IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES APPRCHS FROM THE WEST AFTR MIDNITE. EXPECT MOST OF THIS
MSTR TO GO INTO CLOUD COVERAGE...SO KEPT THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. ANY
PCPN THAT DOES DVLP SHOULD STAY IN NC. LOWS IN THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WED. BEFORE ANY
DRYING OCCURRS...LAST OF THE S/W`S PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NC DURING
THE AFTRN. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW MINIMAL AMTS OF MSTR ACROSS SRN CNTYS.
GIVEN THIS MSTR MOVES THRU DRNG PEAK HEATING HRS...ADDED ISLTD SHWRS
TO SRN CNTYS (MAINLY S OF RT 58). HIGHS IN THE 60S.
ERN TROF FINALLY LIFTS OUT ALLOWING RIDGING TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA WED NITE AND THURS. TSCTNS VOID OF ANY SGNFCNT MSTR SO EXPECT A
M CLR TO PT CLDY PRD. WEAK CAA DMNSHS SETTING UP DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WED NITE. LOWS M-U30S NRN/WRN CNTYS TO U30S-L40S SRN AREAS.
PT TO MSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY. HIGHS U60S-L70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HEADLINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FORECAST WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS SE CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CTRL APPALACHIANS FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CENTER OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC FRI...RIDGING SWWD INTO THE GULF
STATES. HIGH PRESSURE AND WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY RETURN
MOISTURE REGARDLESS OF SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH.
THIS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY ON FRI. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
INCREASE OVER THE ERN CONUS FRI AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DIGS OVER THE
MIDWEST. MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER NRN VA/MD...
WHICH MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THAT REGION. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA...INCLUDING THE
MD ERN SHORE FRI-FRI NIGHT. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON PUSHING THE WEAK
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SAT. TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...THINKING
THE FRONT WILL HAVE TROUBLE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF MORE
ROBUST WITH SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION FRI NIGHT-THURS
MORNING...PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...AS WELL AS
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY SAT. SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. MEANWHILE...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
AMPLIFY THE FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PROPAGATE EWD OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY SUN NIGHT-MON
MORNING. MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS
12+ HRS FASTER WITH THE FRONT/MOISTURE THAN ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART.
HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS BEGINNING MON TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
70S. SLIGHTLY COOLER SAT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NLY WINDS. SLY
WINDS FRI AND SUN-MON WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY COOLER TEMPS ALONG
THE COASTAL ERN SHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CDFNT TO THE CST EARLY THIS AFTN...WILL CONT TO THE E THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. LINGERING MVFR CIGS MNLY ACRS CSTL SE VA/NE
NC ALG W/ ISOLD SHRAS (ABT TO EXIT THE CST)...OTRW...BKN-OVC VFR
CIGS MNLY FM 5-25KFT. GUSTY WNW WNDS TO 20-25 KT WANE THIS
EVE...BECOMING NNW TNGT. OCNL GUSTY NNE WNDS (TO 20 KT) WED...ESP
AT THE CST. TROUGH ALOFT CROSSING THE RGN TNGT THROUGH EARLY WED
AFTN W/ CONTD OCNL BKN VFR CIGS...PTNTLLY AN ISOLD SHRA AS WELL.
AFT THAT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION W/ VFR AND DRY THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING W-NW BY AFTN AND N-NW TONIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN AOA SCA THRESHOLDS THRU NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
10-15 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. LACK OF CAA AND STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS (HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW) WILL PRODUCE SUB-SCA
WINDS (AOB 15 KT) OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW 5
FT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 8 PM. SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY
DROP BELOW 5 FT AS EARLY AS NOON TODAY DUE TO SW FLOW REGIME AND MAY
BE ABLE TO DROP SCA`S QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND ADJUST HEADLINES AS NECESSARY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS-THURS RESULTING IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT-EARLY FRI MORNING...LIKELY STALLING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONTG FLOOD WARNING FOR LAWRENCEVILLE THROUGH LATE TNGT (FOR MINOR
FLOODING). OTRW...RECENT RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES HAS CAUSED AREA
RIVERS TO RISE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY BTWN 1/2 TO 3/4
BANKFULL...GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MAIN STEM RIVERS.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/JAB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/JDM
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
444 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS
PRODUCED SOME MID CLOUDS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BUT THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN ENOUGH BREAKS OF SUN TO
SEND AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE 40S WITH EVEN SOME 50S REPORTED SCNTRL
UPPER MI (AT LEAST 55F IN KMNM) DESPITE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING 5H HGTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS. SFC RDG WILL
ALLOW LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES...STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN TO THE NW WILL GENERATE SOME PCPN
ACROSS MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A LONG
ENOUGH PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW
FOR A DECENT TEMP FALL. CONTINUED TO KEEP MINS TOWARD THE LOWER END
OF AVBL GUIDANCE...REPRESENTED BY THE BIAS CORRECTED REGIONAL AND
GLOBAL GEM. TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS SHOULD FALL TO THE MID
TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN TO THE LOW TEENS OVER THE E.
WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM RIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WILL SPREAD SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AFFECT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE
BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTH SHIFTING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA AND LEADING TO A FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS.
STRONG WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
(850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -2C AT 12Z TO AT LEAST 6C BY 00Z THURSDAY)
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND 40S OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF CWA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN. SW WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON (15-25KTS)
AND THAT WILL ALLOW THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO WARM
AND LIMIT LAKE BREEZE COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE LONG TERM IS IN STORE AS EASTERN CANADIAN
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING REDEVELOPS AND SENDS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
MOVING TO THE EAST AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
MANITOBA BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
295K ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ACROSS THE FAR EAST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. WHILE
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE MID LEVELS/5-10KFT...THE LOW-LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
VIRGA WITH ONLY ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND.
FAVORABLE FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE/LEFT EXIT OF A DEVELOPING
90-100KT UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE AVAILABLE FORCING ACROSS UPPER MI TO A NARROW
BAND OF FGEN ALONG A SFC COLD FRONT. OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LOW...SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN A NARROW 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW ALONG THE FRONT. THE
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE QUITE SCATTERED...SO DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN
ANYTHING OVER CHANCE POPS.
SKIES WILL THEN QUICKLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAD TO A MOSTLY
SUNNY THURSDAY. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM LAKE SHADOWS
DOWNWIND OF WESTERLY WINDS.
WIND WILL BE OF NOTE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING S
TO SW GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NOTED BY A 50 TO 60KT H8 LLJ. AREAS
FAVORED BY S TO SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM WITH
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COMBINED WITH A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY
AND SFC DEWPOINTS RISING ABOVE 32F...THE SNOWPACK ACROSS UPPER MI
MAY BEGIN QUICKLY ERODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TO EACH THEIR OWN WITH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE
BEGINNING FRIDAY...WITH SOLUTIONS FRIDAY EVENING RANGING FROM A
STRONG LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR/GFS/ TO WEAK RIDGING/NAM/ TO
NW FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES/GEM AND ECMWF/. THE GFS SOLUTION IS
A MAJOR DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO
SHOWING SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING FOR THIS REASON. WHILE THE
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS A WETTER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
STRETCH...TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS DOMINATE PRECIP-TYPE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. GIVEN SOME CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH
THE ECMWF...WILL USE THAT TO FORMULATE MUCH OF THE REMAINING
FORECAST.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER HUDSON BAY FRIDAY WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND GRAZE
LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM
THE LEFT-EXIT OF A DEVELOPING UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES A SFC TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
A COMPLICATED MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN RESULT IN SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS DEEP TROUGHING
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE THIS WEEK TRACKS SE TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ROUND THE LARGER TROUGH...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
MORNING. AS NOTED BEFORE...MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR...SO
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO IS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...IF THIS
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...UPPER MI WOULD BE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER MODERATE
TO HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. FOR
COMPARISON...THE GFS AND GEM DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM/PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY.
IF ANYTHING...EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING BACK THE PATTERN FELT OVER
MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THE
TIGHTENING SW GRAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO CAUSE SW WINDS TO
GUST BTWN 20-25 KT BY LATE WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES FROM
MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. WINDS WILL REACH THE 20-30KT
RANGE...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH
PLATFORMS WILL REACH GALE FORCE AT SOME POINT WED/THU. STABLE
LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL WORK AGAINST STRONGER WINDS...BUT
HEALTHY PRES FALLS AHEAD OF LOW LATE WED AND HEALTHY PRES RISES
ARRIVING BEHIND TROF PASSAGE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING MAY BE WHAT
PUSHES WINDS TO GALE FORCE FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THU
NIGHT/FRI. INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES
TROF APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED. LOWS WELL
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE
MOST ABUNDANT SNOWMELT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH DEWPOINTS ABOVE 32F AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS
THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
321 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA
AND A TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS 24HRS AGO IS NOW
MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME...SHORTWAVE OVER
WRN UPPER MI HAS BEEN GENERATING PESKY -SHRA FROM ISLE ROYALE ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA DURING THE NIGHT. THE -SHRA ARE DRIFTING SSE
INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI ATTM. MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE HAVE WORKED TO LIMIT FOG.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...UTILIZED MOSTLY EXTRAPOLATION/TRENDS TO
SHIFT AN AREA OF ISOLD/SCT -SHRA SSE FROM THE KEWEENAW TOWARD SCNTRL
UPPER MI BEFORE THE -SHRA DISSIPATE. WHERE THE -SHRA ARE
OCCURRING...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
-SHRA...THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR -DZ/-FZDZ TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. BEST CHC SHOULD BE OVER WRN UPPER MI. DWPT AT DISW4 IS STILL
AROUND 35F. AS THIS HIGHER DWPT AIR OVER THE LAKE ADVECTS SSE INTO
WRN UPPER MI WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE AT OR BLO FREEZING...STRATUS/FOG
AND POTENTIALLY -FZDZ SHOULD DEVELOP. THEREAFTER...EXPECT INCREASING
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES...BREAKING UP CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER
THE E WHERE THERE WILL BE A BRISK WIND ACROSS THE LAKE...TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD MOSTLY IN THE LWR 30S TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
GENERALLY 30S AND LWR 40S N TO AROUND 50 FAR SCNTRL FROM KIMT TO
NEAR KMNM.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT...
PROVIDING LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES...STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN TO THE NW WILL GENERATE SOME PCPN
ACROSS MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW A DECENT TEMP FALL. LOWERED
MINS TOWARD THE LOW END OF AVBL GUIDANCE...REPRESENTED BY THE BIAS
CORRECTED REGIONAL AND GLOBAL GEM. TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
SHOULD FALL TO THE MID TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
THE E.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY...WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
IS DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS RIDGE MOVES IN...EXPECT A STRONG AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER (AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA) LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MUCH OF THE LAND
CWA...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO JUST BE SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS. BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AFFECT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THIS
AREA OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT THROUGH AND SHOULD LEAD TO A
FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. STRONG WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY (850MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C AT 06Z TO AT LEAST 6C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND LOWER VALUES (40S) OVER THE EAST WITH
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. SPEAKING OF THOSE
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO BE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON (15-25KTS)
AND THAT WILL ALLOW THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS TO WARM AND LIMIT LAKE
BREEZE COOLING.
WHILE THE WARMING IS OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A COLD FRONT WILL
STRETCH SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BEST FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN...BUT WILL HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE EXPECTED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
UPSTREAM SHOWERS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHOWALTER VALUES
AROUND 0 COULD PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR WEST. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY A VERY THIN LINE OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS TO STAY BELOW 0.15IN IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE CWA
BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL SOME BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 0C TO -2C AT 850MB. THOSE TEMPS
COMBINED WITH SUNSHINE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE ARE A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES TO NOTE. FIRST...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
TRIES TO BRUSH THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.
SECOND...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO
SHIFT EAST THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND COULD KICK OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. GFS IS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST WITH THE WAVE BUT MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE VERY LIMITED.
WILL TREND POPS UP TO LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FOR THE WEEKEND...FOCUS IS ON TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LEADING
PIECES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL PUSH THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS PRECIP WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS STILL SHOWING A WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS/GEM
FAST/SE ECMWF FARTHEST NORTHWEST. A GENERAL BLEND WILL WORK WELL AT
THIS POINT FOR POPS (CHANCES)...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY
MORNING AND SHIFTING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LOCATION OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH HAS A INFLUENCE ON
THE WEATHER FOR THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. BY THAT POINT...THE TWO WAVES THAT ARE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL HAVE MERGED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST. THESE FEATURES WILL BE HELPED BY A THIRD DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. THE TIMING OF THESE THREE FEATURES AND
HOW FAR EAST THEY END UP WILL DETERMINE PRECIP CHANCES (AND
MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBILITY) FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST AND THE
ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST WHILE THE 00Z GEM IS NOW SIMILAR TO .
THE GFS. WITH THE PHASING OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE SOLUTION IS VERY LOW AND MODELS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AT THIS POINT...WILL HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE A GENERAL CONSENSUS
WOULD INDICATE PRECIP. WITH THE EXPECTED COLD AIR THAT WILL SPILL IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW AND THERE COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS
CORRECT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGING IN AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS COULD PRODUCE A 6HR PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. WAY TO FAR OUT TO GET TOO EXCITED AT THAT POTENTIAL
AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WISE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN RESEMBLES THE ONE FROM MUCH OF THIS PAST WINTER. 850MB
TEMPS DO LOOK TO FALL TOWARD -12C TO -17C FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND
FEEZING ON TUESDAY. FOR THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN ENJOYING THE SPRING
LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT APPEARS THIS
TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND RETURN THE AREA
BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THE
TIGHTENING SW GRAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO CAUSE SW WINDS TO
GUST BTWN 20-25 KT BY LATE WED MORNING. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN APPROACHING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND
DEEPENING LOW PRES MOVING FROM THE LWR LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...WINDS
WILL PICK UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
ERN PORTION OF THE LAKE WHERE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-25KT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEP LOW PRES MOVES FROM
MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. WINDS WILL REACH THE 20-30KT
RANGE...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH
PLATFORMS WILL REACH GALE FORCE AT SOME POINT WED/THU. STABLE
LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE WILL WORK AGAINST STRONGER WINDS...BUT
HEALTHY PRES FALLS AHEAD OF LOW WED AND HEALTHY PRES RISES ARRIVING
BEHIND TROF PASSAGE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING MAY BE WHAT PUSHES WINDS
TO GALE FORCE FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THU NIGHT/FRI.
INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED AND WOULD EXPECT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO INCREASE SNOWMELT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON TUESDAY (INCLUDING LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN).
WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SWING THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1105 AM TUESDAY...
AT 1100 AM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM JUST WEST OF
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO NEAR WADESBORO. MUCH DRIER AIR IS
SPILLING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE TRIAD WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. EVEN WITH
MOIST DEW POINTS...INSTABILITY IS RATHER LACKING BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS JOHNSTON AND WILSON COUNTIES
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURNS. RECENT HRRR RUNS NOTED THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE SHOWERS BUT INDICATED A LIMITED AERIAL OVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTE A
DECREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH A FAIRLY THICK VEIL OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STOUT 165+KT JET ALOFT. THE PRIO MORNING UPDATE TRIMMED POPS DOWN TO
JUST THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CAW FOR THIS MORNING AND MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE COUNTERACTIVE
INFLUENCES OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOME SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION.
LEANED HEAVILY UPON THE HRRR HOURLY TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH
RESULTED IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE TRIAGE
AND THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. -BLAES
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: EXPECT A SERIES OF EMBEDDED S/W`S IN THE DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION AS THE DEEP TROUGH ITSELF SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT WE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THOUGH. HOWEVER... WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING
SOME 150 METERS BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE OUR
INSTABILITY ALOFT INCREASE... WITH POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FINAL PASSING SHORTWAVE.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AS MODEL
SOUNDING ARE QUITE DRY AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. EXPECT
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S... WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... A S/W RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS
AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC HIGH WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DRY STABLE
AIR LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. SFC
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPS TO COOL
QUICKLY. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS RUN. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS YET AS SFC DEWPOINTS
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AT THIS TIME ARE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WENT
WITH MIN TEMPS UPPER 30S NORTH-NW TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FROST DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS IT DID 24-48 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER
STILL BELIEVE THAT A SPOT OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY
DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE MID 30S TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION BUT LIMITED
NATURE OF THE LIGHT FROST SUGGEST THAT AN ADVISORY WOULD PROBABLY BE
OVERKILL.
SFC HIGH WILL SCOOT QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY WITH A WARM BREEZY SW SFC
WIND DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER
AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. AGAIN...MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. PREFER TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS
AS MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER.
FOR NOW WILL FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL END OF MOS GUIDANCE...
VARYING FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL AND LOW LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH A
SFC HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT (UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50). MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S...APPROACHING 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH-SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A SFC COLD
FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL NC BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CROSSING
INTO OUR REGION EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BEST/DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE
FRONT LOSES A LOT OF ITS UPPER SUPPORT BY THE TIME IT REACHES
CENTRAL NC LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MOST PLACES SATURDAY THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT S/W RIDGING
ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL RESULT IN MILD
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN SATURDAY AND VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW
IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A S/W RIDGE OVER SE U.S. SUNDAY WILL
MAINTAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NEAR SFC FLOW BECOMES SELY...LEADING
TO A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE
ATLANTIC. SHOWER THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO MENTION IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. SHOWER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AS
DEEP/STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
NC. THIS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC HEATING. BETTER
DYNAMICS/SUPPORT ALOFT WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR A
GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD WITH MAX TEMPS
AVERAGING 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KFAY AND
KGSB BY 19Z. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE FRONT. CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE NOW VFR AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AND NEARLY ALL OF
CENTRAL NC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS GSB AND ETC. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CEILINGS
AROUND 4-6KFT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...WHICH MAY FLIRT
WITH MVFR CRITERIA ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN REDEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW AND THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED SO HAVE OMITTED IT FROM
THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW
AT 10 KTS OR LESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OUTLOOK....AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
WEDNESDAY TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS AND WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WIL PRODUCE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. -BLAES
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BLAES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1243 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS WITH -SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED AROUND ALL AIRPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONGER CONVECTION COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY
TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH MVFR VIS/CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
DUE TO WET GROUNDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
UPDATE...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWS CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT WITH CURRENT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED
HIGHS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...BUT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CORE OF
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE MID STATE FROM THE WEST. 12Z RAOBS
SHOW UNUSUALLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -25C TO -30C. DESPITE
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S...WARMING BL COMBINED WITH THE COLD
MID LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY AFTERNOON WITH
CAPE VALUES PROGGED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS HIGH AS 800 J/KG IN
WESTERN ZONES. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT...AND EXPANDED LIKELY POPS TO ALL
ZONES IN LINE WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS. THE COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH VERY LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
5000 FT AGL INDICATE ANY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST RISK
FOR HAIL IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST. HAIL SIZE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SUB-
SEVERE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IN THE
STRONGER CORES.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY VFR BUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY 19Z-02Z MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.
MVFR FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXISTS WITHIN A DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE SHORTWAVES
IS RATHER DEEP AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS MO
AND AR.
LATER TODAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL BE
ORIENTED OVER THE MID STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE WITHIN THE TROUGH ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS. THEREFORE...FOR THE FCST...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS A MOSTLY DRY MORNING BUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE
TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.
LAPSE RATES BY THIS AFTERNOON ARE SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE. MID LEVEL
THETA E RIDGING DOES EXIST BUT PRIMARILY WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
MID STATE. SFC CAPES AND INSTABILITIES WILL BE IN PLACE SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOL TSTM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST. STORMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG OR SEVERE BUT PERHAPS SOME SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL
COULD OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AFTER
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WE MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE.
DRY WEATHER TO RETURN FOR WED AND THU. IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER
ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGHING PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AND HEIGHTS
INCREASE.
IN THE EXT FCST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD TN ON FRIDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS GOING. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH HOWEVER AND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE WEEKEND. NEXT APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCE WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD BE A
GOOD RAIN MAKER FOR US. AT THE SFC...THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL ENERGY
MAY TAKE A SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND THUS...NOT LOOKING LIKE A WELL
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME...JUST A GOOD RAIN MAKER...WITH
A FEW NON SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS 850 MB VALUES
WILL BE GENERALLY 10C+. A COOL DOWN WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND MONDAYS
FROPA. THE 7 TO 10 DAY PERIOD LOOKS RATHER CHILLY FOR EARLY TO MID
APRIL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1103 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
.UPDATE...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWS CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT WITH CURRENT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED
HIGHS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...BUT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CORE OF
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE MID STATE FROM THE WEST. 12Z RAOBS
SHOW UNUSUALLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -25C TO -30C. DESPITE
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S...WARMING BL COMBINED WITH THE COLD
MID LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY AFTERNOON WITH
CAPE VALUES PROGGED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS HIGH AS 800 J/KG IN
WESTERN ZONES. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT...AND EXPANDED LIKELY POPS TO ALL
ZONES IN LINE WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS. THE COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH VERY LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
5000 FT AGL INDICATE ANY OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST RISK
FOR HAIL IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST. HAIL SIZE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SUB-
SEVERE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IN THE
STRONGER CORES.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY VFR BUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY 19Z-02Z MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.
MVFR FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXISTS WITHIN A DEVELOPING
UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE SHORTWAVES
IS RATHER DEEP AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS MO
AND AR.
LATER TODAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL BE
ORIENTED OVER THE MID STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE WITHIN THE TROUGH ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS. THEREFORE...FOR THE FCST...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS A MOSTLY DRY MORNING BUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE
TEMPS WILL BE REACHED AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.
LAPSE RATES BY THIS AFTERNOON ARE SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE. MID LEVEL
THETA E RIDGING DOES EXIST BUT PRIMARILY WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
MID STATE. SFC CAPES AND INSTABILITIES WILL BE IN PLACE SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOL TSTM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST. STORMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG OR SEVERE BUT PERHAPS SOME SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL
COULD OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AFTER
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WE MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE.
DRY WEATHER TO RETURN FOR WED AND THU. IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER
ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGHING PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AND HEIGHTS
INCREASE.
IN THE EXT FCST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD TN ON FRIDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS GOING. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH HOWEVER AND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE WEEKEND. NEXT APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCE WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD BE A
GOOD RAIN MAKER FOR US. AT THE SFC...THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL ENERGY
MAY TAKE A SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND THUS...NOT LOOKING LIKE A WELL
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME...JUST A GOOD RAIN MAKER...WITH
A FEW NON SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS 850 MB VALUES
WILL BE GENERALLY 10C+. A COOL DOWN WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND MONDAYS
FROPA. THE 7 TO 10 DAY PERIOD LOOKS RATHER CHILLY FOR EARLY TO MID
APRIL.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1223 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS TO SETTLE
ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST THIS EVENING AND TRACK EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
MARINE...MIXING OF NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE SURFACE GETTING UNDERWAY
THIS MORNING BUT WINDS HOLDING IN THE 12-15 KNOT RANGE WITH FEW
HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WITH LIMITED COLD ADVECTION
EVEN THOUGH 850 MB WINDS SIT ON 30-33 KNOTS AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN A BIT. MOST RECENT NAM DATA IN THE 950-925 MB LAYER
INDICATE 20-22 KNOTS WITH LESS TOWARD THE SURFACE...AND IT MAY BE
A BIT TOUGH TO REALIZE 20 KNOT SUSTAINED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN LEG WHICH IS FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ADVISORY/CAUTION
AS IS AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CANCELLATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
52/BSG
FIRE WEATHER...LATEST 12Z NAM AND 12Z HRRR ARE RIGHT IN TUNE WITH
THE CURRENT THINKING ON 20 FOOT WINDS...WITH A LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SURGE ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
DIMINISHING BELOW 15 MPH AS THE LOWEST RH APPROACHES. IN THE
WARNING AREA...THE 15+ MPH 20 FOOT NORTHWEST WINDS LINE UP WITH
THE SHARPEST DEW POINT DROP BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE HOW LOW THE HUMIDITY FALLS...WE NEED TO DROP JUST BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO REALIZE THE `FLASH DROUGHT`
SITUATION THAT CAN CAUSE RAPID WILDFIRE GROWTH AND THAT MAY BE A
STRETCH BUT SITUATION IS RIGHT ON THE FENCE SO NO REASON TO REMOVE
THE SAFETY VALVE OF THE WARNING FOR NOW.
52/BSG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. WINDS WILL GUST AT 18
TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
CLEAR ON WATER VAPOR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. MOST
EVIDENT AREAS OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE NOW EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE RADAR BECOMING INCREASINGLY QUIET OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...
AND PATCHES OF FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN CAMERON AND
WILLACY COUNTY.
TODAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CLEARS TO THE EAST A
REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. NAM12 AND ARW/NMM 00Z GUIDANCE PRODUCES WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15
TO 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MET AND MAV MOS DO NOT SHOW DEW POINTS THIS
LOW...BUT SUSPECT THE CLIMATOLOGY SIGNAL IS TOO STRONG IN THE
DATASET FOR THE ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW MODEL
OUTPUT BASED ON THE SOURCE AIR MASS IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 0 TO 10 DEGREES F IN THAT AREA. DEW
POINTS WILL DROP QUICKLY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WITH VERTICAL
MIXING COMBINING WITH ADVECTION OF VERY DRY AIR. THERE WILL BE
VERY WEAK NET COLD ADVECTION ONGOING BUT WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING 850/700MB THICKNESS VALUES...CONTINUED A LITTLE WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE ON FORECAST MAXES. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR 20 KNOT MARINE WINDS AND NAM/HIGH RES DEPICTION
OF LOWER WINDS NEAR SHORE AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OFFSHORE MAKES
SENSE GIVEN SATELLITE DERIVED AND OBSERVED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
OBS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES AND
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL BUT ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF 15 MPH 20 FOOT WIND AND AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE TOO LOW
IN JIM HOGG AND ZAPATA COUNTY FOR A WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT AMID
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. VERY DRY
NEAR SURFACE AIR AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SLOW RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THOSE WINDS ALTHOUGH IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO RECHARGE THE WESTERN GULF AIR MASS
AFTER THE ONSLAUGHT OF VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
WITH THAT...PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND A STEADY BUT NOT OVER
WHELMING SOUTHEAST BREEZE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND WILL MAINTAIN A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REPEAT
THURSDAY AFTN...DIPPING INTO THE 20S OUT WEST AND ENHANCING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS A BIT. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE
50S...WHILE HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S...UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTH
GULF...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY RANGE...WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
STILL DOMINATE JUST UPSTREAM...BUT A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LWR
WEST COAST...AND THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL FLATTEN. FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH/LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN SOUTHWEST HELPS DESTABILIZE THINGS A BIT OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER FRONT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...AS THE EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH
COINCIDES WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS
BRINGS A GOO AMOUNT OF RAIN THE THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN NORTH OF THE CWA BUT
BRINGS A SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH THE RGV MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
CHOSE TO GO WITH A BLEND...SINCE TIMING ISSUES WERE NOT EXTREME...
AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS STILL AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST...
AND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
THAT MIGHT MATERIALIZE...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT COINCIDING WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER AND
AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A
PHASING TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY POST FRONT WITH AN
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A HANDFUL OF DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AS SKIES CLEAR.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
NEARSHORE WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE NEARSHORE AND LIKELY
AT LEAST BRIEFLY BECOME ROUGH OFFSHORE. BETTER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE
AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL INITIALIZE THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THEREAFTER THOUGH...THROUGH
SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH 20 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
TO 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE AS LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTERACTS WITH GULF HIGH PRESSURE TO GENERATE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW TO NEARLY NONEXISTENT.
FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. A SURGE
OF NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND
12 TO 18 PERCENT WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STARR...BROOKS...KENEDY...AND
INLAND CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES TODAY AND ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASING.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ250>255.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ170-175.
&&
$$
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