Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/07/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1250 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
823 PM CDT

HAD UPDATED EARLIER TO ADD MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-EVENING.

VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF SOME GRAUPEL ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST IL THIS
EVENING. BACK EDGE OF RADAR-DETECTABLE PRECIP WAS APPROACHING THE
FOX RIVER VALLEY...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING
AS THE VORT MOVES EAST OF AREA. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY ERODE THE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...WITH EXPANSIVE CLEARING NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA PER GOES 11-3.9 IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE...ALSO LOWERED WINDS/GUSTS A BIT IN STEP WITH CURRENT
OBS TRENDS.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
203 PM CDT

TONIGHT...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. WITH A
STILL 30 MB SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LAKE HURON TO WESTERN
IA...THE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 30-35 MPH AT
TIMES EARLY THIS EVE. SOME OF THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER ACROSS IA AND
SOUTHERN MN HAS MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE TO IT SO EXPECT IT TO FADE
QUICKLY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION ERODING AT IT. HAVE GONE WITH A
QUICKER CLEARING THAN MOST MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS WOULD
INDICATE...WITH SCATTERING FROM MID-EVE THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT.
ALREADY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAYBE
WITH A LITTLE MORE HASTE ONCE SCATTERING OCCURS. LOWS LOOK TO SETTLE
AT 25 TO 30 OR ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW EARLY APRIL NORMALS.

MTF

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE A DAY
OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE GRADUALLY MODIFYING
BUT STILL A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE STRONG APRIL SUN
AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING WILL YIELD A NICE DAY...ESPECIALLY COMPARED
TO THE WINDY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. WHILE HIGHS AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW 50S TO PERHAPS MID 50S IN SOME
SPOTS...THE ONLY CONCERN TOMORROW IS THE TIMING OF A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. NONEXISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW IT TO DO SO BY MID DAY...IF NOT
EARLIER. THIS WILL KEEP AREAS WITHIN 5 TO 10 MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN
STUCK PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS COULD TRY TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE
WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. BANKING ON CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO
YIELD LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING A NICE WARM UP ON SUNDAY TO THE UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN. FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE SHIFT TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS ONTO THE ILLINOIS LAKESHORE. IF TIMING OF THE SHIFT
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S
PEGGED FOR THE LAKEFRONT COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING
WILL SPUR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE GULF COAST THAT WILL THEN
DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE
EASTERN LAKES ON MONDAY. THE EXACT TRACK...WITH WHICH THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH OF THE AREA SEES APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM`S
DEFORMATION AXIS. GEFS POPS FAVOR CATEGORICAL IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND LIKELIES FOR THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF CWA SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME
ACCORDINGLY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND A LAKE MICHIGAN DRIVEN
INVERSION WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS LOW 40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TO UPPER 40S-AROUND 50 INLAND. FARTHER WEST...DESPITE CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND FROM APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
AREA...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN ONLY IN THE 40S. THEN ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW RIDING
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. RAPID WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT IN DOWN SLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW COULD ENABLE HIGHS EVEN WARMER
THAN UPPER 50S CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE WARMING OF THE AIR MASS WILL
PEAK EARLY THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING TO THE MID TEENS
CELSIUS. WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW-MID
40S LOWS COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE OFF TO THE
RACES THURSDAY...THOUGH A POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. IF
THE FRONT SLOWS OR PASSAGE DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL PAST PEAK
WARMING...THEN HIGHS INTO THE 70S (!) ARE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF IS
FEATURING. SO THE MID-UPPER 60S FROM BLENDED INITIALIZATION
HOPEFULLY WILL NEED TO BE RAISED SOME. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT WELL
NORTH...WOULDNT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS WITH FROPA...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A COOLER FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* A LAKE BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS NE THIS AFTN ARND 21Z.

JEE

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

LOW END VFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY CLEARING OUT OF THE REGION FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. A HOLE FORMED IN THE CLOUDS RIGHT OVER ORD AND MDW...BUT
KEPT BKN VFR CIGS IN THE FCST THROUGH 9Z SINCE SKIES ARE BKN/OVC
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION...AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM THIS AFTN AND MOVE THROUGH ORD AND
MDW. KEPT 21Z FOR THE LAKE BREEZE AS IT STILL SEEMS LIKE A
REASONABLE TIME WITH THE HIGH MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTN.
THE HIGH PUSHES EAST THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING WINDS TO TURN
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 5
KT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE S WINDS.

JEE

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LAKE BREEZE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE LAKE BREEZE IMPACTING ORD AND MDW.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

JEE

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/MVFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR

IZZI

.MARINE...
215 PM CDT

MAIN CONCERN FOR LAKE MICHIGAN REMAINS THE ONGOING GALE EVENT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN SFC LOW IS MOVING INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN AND WINDS ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HAVE
SHIFTED WLY AND INCREASED TO GALE FORCE WHILE THE FAR NORTH
REMAINS NELY AND JUST BELOW GALES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING GALE
WARNING AND STILL EXPECT SOME FURTHER INCREASE TO THE WIND SPEEDS
OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS THE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA
MOVES NEWD IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW. THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE HAVE NOT YET INCREASED TO GALE FORCE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALES WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF ISSUANCE TIME
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD ADVECTIONS INCREASES OVER THE
LAKE AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WHILE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY...LEADING TO STRENGTHING NWLY WINDS
AGAIN...THOUGH MORE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 AM
SATURDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1133 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 845 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014

The intense area of low pressure that brought the active weather
to our area yesterday has shifted well off to our northeast early
this evening. Tight pressure gradient from the retreating low and
approaching area of high pressure to our west brought us strong
winds today with the cyclonic flow beginning to relax early this
evening resulting in a decrease in wind speeds. As usual, models
were too optimistic with respect to the clouds moving out today
with several more hours to go before we see a clearing trend work
its way into our area overnight. HRRR model and RAP forecast
soundings suggesting the timing of any clearing more towards
midnight northwest and during the early morning hours over the far
eastern counties. Will make those adjustments to the sky grids and
adjust early evening temperatures. We should have the update out
by 900 pm.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1115 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014

Backedge of clouds was approaching the Mississippi River late this
evening and based on the movement it should begin to push acrs our
area, from northwest to southeast in the 08z-12z time frame. Once
the clouds finally clear the area by morning, we can expect some
scattered cirrus at times thru the rest of the day but that is
about it cloud-wise. Surface winds will be light west to northwest
tonight into the morning hours of Saturday, and then go into more
of a light southeasterly direction later tomorrow evening with
speeds thru the period at only 4 to 7 kts.

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014
Exiting low pressure system over the Great Lakes leaving a tight
pressure gradient and gusty winds in its wake for the Midwest.
Northerly winds expected to slowly move into the region with
cooler temps for tomorrow as high pressure builds into the region.
High pressure ridge over the CWA for the weekend keeping mild
weather and mostly sunny skies in place. Next system not expected
until after midnight Sun night/Monday. For the most part, forecast
models in pretty good agreement with a quiet forecast overall.
Temperatures still a bit below normal on average and only a couple
shots at precipitation at this point.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through tomorrow...
Winds staying up a bit through the evening before the boundary
layer decouples and the low pulls a bit further to the east. Winds
not dropping below 10kts until later on Saturday morning as the
high pressure ridge moves over the region. Plenty of sunshine
tomorrow will drive temps up into the 50s, still below normal, but
closer to spring than the past couple of days.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
Warmer on Sunday with highs approaching 60. Increasingly southerly
winds through the day assisting with the WAA even though the
clouds will slowly increase with another system developing to the
SSW. The wave just off the Pacific NW coast this afternoon
eventually digs in over the SWrn CONUS and develops a sfc low that
moves through the southern Plains and up into the Ohio River
Valley late Sunday and brings a chance for showers through Monday.
For now, ILX will mainly be on the back side of the Low...putting
the SErn CWA in a spot for some prolonged rainfall. Rain slowly
clearing on Mon night/Tuesday and forecast becomes mild again
through the middle of the week until another system lays out a
boundary for the region on Friday. At this point, pops for
Thursday night remain on the low side, awaiting more detail with a
rather subtle and weak signal in the models.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

106 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IT WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY AND INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR REGION BY TUESDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE. IT WILL BE DRY MIDWEEK AND WARMER WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE STRATOCU
HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WILL BUILD EAST INTO
OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE GOOD SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
QUICK IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS. THE RAP KEEPS 80 TO 90 PERCENT RH
THROUGH 12Z AND WITH A 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION LATER
TODAY WILL SLOW DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
A MAV MET BLEND.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS US TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY AND MODELS ARE
TRENDING WITH LESS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. CUT TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE
A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY WILL TRACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A
VERY WET DAY. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER MU CAPES BARELY
REACH 100 J/KG ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES OVER
THE REST OF OUR REGION.

THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN HIGHER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...CUT TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR REGION MONDAY AS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN
ENTIRELY IN THE COOL SECTOR ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES SOUTHEAST MONDAY...AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITING
THE REGION AND PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. AS A
RESULT...CHANCE POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEY WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SECOND WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
DRY CONDITIONS THAT LATEST INITIALIZATION CAME IN WITH FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BREAK
DOWN THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CHANCES AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OUT JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S AFTER THAT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

VFR AND QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND
LIGHT WINDS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

1015 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IT WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE. IT WILL BE DRY MIDWEEK AND WARMER WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE STRATOCU
HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
A MAV MET BLEND.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN HIGHER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/15Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TAF SITES. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT THESE ARE AT VFR LEVEL REGARDLESS. EXPECT
CONTINUED CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AT 4 TO 8 KTS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

930 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IT WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE. IT WILL BE DRY MIDWEEK AND WARMER WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE STRATOCU
HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
A MAV MET BLEND.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN HIGHER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TAF SITES. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT THESE ARE AT VFR LEVEL REGARDLESS. EXPECT
CONTINUED CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AT 4 TO 8 KTS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

723 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IT WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE. IT WILL BE DRY MIDWEEK AND WARMER WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
A MAV MET BLEND.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN HIGHER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

411 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IT WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE. IT WILL BE DRY MIDWEEK AND WARMER WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
A MAV MET BLEND.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN HIGHER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

UPDATE...
GUSTS HAVE ENDED AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH HAS SHOWN
LITTLE SIGN OF DISSIPATION AS WAS EXPECTED EARLIER. THAT SAID...IT
HAS REMAINED LOW END VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT CEILINGS BRIEFLY BUILDING BACK DOWN INTO THE HIGH MVFR RANGE
AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ONCE GUSTS DIE DOWN...BUT THIS IS LOW
PROBABILITY AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED.

THESE CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY TO BEGIN BREAKING UP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.

WIND GUSTS...WHILE STILL ONGOING AT ALL SITES BUT IND WITHIN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SHOULD BE DYING OFF VERY SHORTLY...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY GUSTS. WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT
ABOVE 10KT OUT OF THE WEST OR WEST/NORTHWEST. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY AT 10KT OR LESS. WINDS TOMORROW EVENING WILL BECOME
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

NO VISIBILITY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

353 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IT WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE. IT WILL BE DRY MIDWEEK AND WARMER WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
A MAV MET BLEND.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN HIGHER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1239 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THESE CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY TO BEGIN BREAKING UP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.

NO VISIBILITY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IT WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE. IT WILL BE DRY MIDWEEK AND WARMER WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
A MAV MET BLEND.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN HIGHER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

MODELS SHOW SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES IN WAVES DURING THE EXTENDED.
ONLY MADE MINOR QUALITY CONTROL TWEAKS TO THE INITIALIZATION. LOW
PRESSURE EXITING THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH
AND MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES AND
THEN USHER IN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIR ARRIVES
THE FORCING HAS MOVED ON SO WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH 6Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE GOING WITH DRY POPS...THUS NO CHANCES
FOR MIXED PRECIP INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS THOUGH LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THURSDAY WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP AS A WARM FRONT
FIRMS ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS COULD BRING IN RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1239 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THESE CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY TO BEGIN BREAKING UP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.

NO VISIBILITY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

130 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

UPSTREAM THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS AND THEY ARE
GRADUALLY ADVECTING BACK INTO EASTERN KY AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ROTATES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THESE WILL LIKELY WORK ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO HAVE RAISED SKY COVER OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY.
THIS ALSO LED TO AN INCREASE IN A FEW VALLEY TEMPERATURES. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND A ZFP WILL BE ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

WIND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS THE
WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE 8 PM EDT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
LATE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO NOW EXITED TO THE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT. THERE
IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN KY AND ON INTO
IL AND INDIANA WHILE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS OVER MUCH OF TN AND PARTS
OF SOUTHERN KY. OPTED TO INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS THE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND IN MANY AREAS FOR A WHILE. WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP
BASED ON THE RECENT TRENDS. MODELS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO ABOUT
-4C AROUND DAWN...SO HAVE OPTED TO LOWER MIN T ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN INTO THE UPPER 20S.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED
TO THE SOUTH AND MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT IS
PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AND SHORT
LIVED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EAST KENTUCKY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE SURROUNDING THIS BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THAT WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FRONT ALSO BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER WITH LOWER 50S AIR FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA REPLACING
THE MID 60S CURRENTLY SEEN THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S INBOUND RATHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S THAT PRECEDE THE FRONT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL
TAKE A SLOWLY DAMPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOME ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING BUT ITS IMPACT WOULD BE MITIGATED BY THE
RISING HEIGHTS. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL FAVOR THE HRRR EARLY ON
AND THEN A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS...GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PRE-FIRST PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WILL
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH NOW THAT THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAS BEEN DONE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXPIRING. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EXITING RAINS WILL HOLD IN FOR MANY MORE HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO...CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT RIDGETOP THAN IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNSHINE FOR SATURDAY WITH
SEASONABLY LOWER HEIGHTS LIMITING THE WARMUP TO THE MID 50S IN MOST
PLACES WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT A BETTER AND MORE
TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST AND ALSO ALLOWS SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE NORTH INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH LATER IN
THE NIGHT.

FOR MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GRIDS...USED THE BC/CONSSHORT AS A STARTING
POINT WITH LITTLE ADJUSTMENT GIVEN THE CAA PATTERN. THEREAFTER...
POPULATED WITH THE CONSALL SUITE AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...
PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS AND SATURDAY DEWPOINTS. FOR
POPS...OUTSIDE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS...KEPT THEM LOW...IN LINE WITH
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH
OF KENTUCKY AND TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUPPORTED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL LIMIT ONSET...THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD OVERPOWER THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOLER
WEATHER RETURNING BY MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
FREE WEATHER LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BY MID WEEK...PROVIDING RAIN
FREE WEATHER FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS...MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT...INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRAPPED A GOOD DEAL OF
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A LAYER OF VFR
STRATO CU DEVELOPING AND TRAVERSING EASTERN KY THIS EVENING. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW HELPS TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE MOISTURE...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TAKE HOLD. EXPECT LITTLE IMPACTS TO TAF
SITES FROM THIS CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN BREAK UP
TOMORROW...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GENERALLY OUT OF THE WNW
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AND SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NRLY
DIRECTION BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

1043 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

.MARINE...

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARINE FORECAST TO REFLECT ONGOING
CONDITIONS. OVERALL GRADIENT FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED...AND HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE NOW IN PLACE FOR ALL OF
THE WATERS. SEAS ARE ALSO A FOOT LOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND THESE
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/

UPDATE...

ZONE AND COASTAL PACKAGES WERE UPDATED AT 7 PM FOR ISSUANCE OF
TORNADO WATCH 65 UNTIL 3 AM CDT. WARM FRONT IS MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA AT THIS TIME. 00Z SOUNDING NOW SHOWING MUCH MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND VERY LITTLE INHIBITION. HELICITY HAS INCREASED TO
476...WET BULB ZERO DOWN TO 10K FEET. CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING
JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL
POSSIBLE. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH
THE WRF 3KM BEING SEVERAL HOURS SLOWER THAN THE HRRR IN AFFECTING
THE NEW ORLEANS AREA AND POINTS EAST. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

IN WAITING MODE AT PRESENT. WARM FRONT AT 850 MB IS WELL TO THE
NORTH NEAR INTERSTATE 20. SURFACE WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. TEMPERATURES IN THE
WARMER AIR ARE IN THE MIDDLE 70S...WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT...THEY
ARE IN THE MID 60S. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT IN THE COOLER AIR...WE
HAVE A 3 DEGREE C CAP. IN THE WARMER AIR...THE CAP IS NOT A
FACTOR. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF HOUSTON SHOULD
GRADUALLY DRAG WARM FRONT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SHORT TERM...

IN THE WARMER AIR...FACTORS ARE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
A 75/72 SURFACE OB WOULD PRODUCE ALMOST 2300 CAPE...LIFTED OF
-7...HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 300. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN
POSSIBLE...SPC CARRYING SLIGHT RISK AND HATCHED 10 PERCENT PROB OF
STRONG TORNADO OVER OUR ENTIRE CWA. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING THAT
MAIN SQUALL LINE WILL NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OF
COURSE...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE. WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA TODAY...HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS LOWER THAN EARLIER...BUT
STILL EXISTS. THREAT NOW WOULD BE FROM TRAINING CELLS ALONG THE
LINE. GRIDDED QPF WILL BE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES...WHICH IS HIGHER
THAN CURRENT WPC QPF VALUES. WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW WITH CONVECTION YET TO ARRIVE.

CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT WITH MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. WILL TAPER POPS FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING ON MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA TONIGHT...AS CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW OVERNIGHT LOW
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MASSAGE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENT FRONT IS
PACIFIC IN ORIGIN AND WILL ONLY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR TO THE AREA.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF ON TUESDAY. MUCH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE
THE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. 35

LONG TERM...

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AFTER A CHILLY START ON THURSDAY. NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE ON MONDAY. 35

AVIATION...

MVFR TO AT TIMES VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER MANY AREAS SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT WHILE IFR TO LIFR PERSISTS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD START TO MAKE BETTER NORTHWARD
PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT
FOR MANY OF THE TAF AIRPORTS.

PER 18Z LIX SOUNDING...TSRA WILL HAVE A VERY HARD TIME DEVELOPING
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BECAUSE A COMBINATION OF THE LINGERING
STABLE...NEAR SURFACE MARINE LAYER INVERSION AND A DRAMATICALLY
WARMED LAYER AROUND 10000 FEET. THAT IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE
LARGE RING OF LOW RADAR RETURNS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OF THE
RADAR...AND THE PRESENCE OF LOW TOPPED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES. AIRPORTS FROM NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH SHOULD ONLY HAVE -SHRA OR SPRINKLES THROUGH 01-03Z BEFORE
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSRA. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE ALONG A SQUALL LINE THAT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
TSRA STARTING NEAR KMCB-KBTR AS EARLY AS 05Z...AND REACHING NEAR
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE COAST 09-13Z. TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED LATER. 22/TD

MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HEADLINES WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE
LAKES AND SOUNDS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TOMORROW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALSO LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. ONCE THOSE WINDS ABATE...A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF QUIETER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...ORANGE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING
MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND RIVER FLOODING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 66 74 51 67 / 100 50 20 40
BTR 68 76 55 70 / 100 50 20 30
ASD 69 77 54 69 / 100 70 20 40
MSY 69 76 58 69 / 100 70 20 30
GPT 70 77 56 69 / 100 80 20 40
PQL 69 76 53 68 / 100 80 20 40

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
FELICIANA.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

741 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

.UPDATE...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SHORT TERM...

LONG TERM...

AVIATION...

MARINE...

DECISION SUPPORT...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

450 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
USHERING IN COLDER AIR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS EARLY THIS EVENING...MOSTLY FOR POPS.
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO CROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
ABOUT NORTH CONWAY TO ROCKLAND AND POINTS NORTH. LATEST HRRR RUN
PICKING UP ON THIS PCPN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.

PREV DISC...
5H TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL SEE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THIS EVENING WITH A GREATER CHANCE
IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. POPS DECREASE QUICKLY
AFTER THAT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS BUT MOUNTAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. USED A
BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR TEMPS TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NICE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SOUTH AND IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE WEST DUE TO WAA ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH WARM ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
START WITH AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTH CAN EXPECT UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WHILE TO THE
SOUTH WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 50S. BY THE END OF THE DAY SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO OUR SW. OUR SNOW PACK...WHICH
VARIES TO NOTHING NEAR PORTLAND TO STILL ~40 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH....WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY RECEDE.

OPEN WAVE ENERGY ALOFT SHIFTS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY
SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS NH AND MAINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND
SLEET FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE THE RAIN...TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO REACH THE 40S AND 50S AS WE
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH CONCORD AND
PORTSMOUTH EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 60 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A
BIGGER TEMPERATURE VARIATION AS COOLER AIR (30S AND 40S) WEDGE
NORTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WARM TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.

LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
WARM WEATHER AS SW WINDS CONTINUE. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER
WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
PW VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE HIGH AND ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE AS THIS SYSTEM IS BETTER
RESOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS.

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR AS CLOUDS LIFT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR ON MONDAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR ON WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT FOR KHIE. ALL SITES VFR ON THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR WIND
GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...GALES POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

652 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO QUEBEC TODAY AS A SMALL SECONDARY
LOW FORMS NEAR THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL APPROACH
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE: WITH TEMPS AT OR EVEN JUST ABV FZG EVEN ACROSS MANY
NRN LCTNS THIS MORN...THE POTENTIAL OF ANY FZRA ACROSS THE WNTR WX
ADV AREA IS WANING. RADAR INDICATES ONE...PERHAPS LAST BAND OF
ORGANIZED PRECIP WHICH COULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 1 HR PD OF GOOD LGT
TO MDT SNFL OVR CNTRL AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA. OTHERWISE...MESO
HRLY MODEL OUTPUT SUCH AS THE HRRR INDICATES LESS ORGANIZED PRECIP
ACROSS THE WNTR WX ADV AREA LATE THIS MORN INTO THE AFTN. THESE
FACTORS COULD RESULT IN EARLY CANCELLATION OF PTNS OF THE
ADV...SPCLY THE E CNTRL AS WELL AS PERHAPS SE AROOSTOOK AND NRN
PENOBSCOT COUNTIES PTN AS WELL.

ORGNL DISC: ON GOING WNTR WX ADV EVENT FOR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA CONTS INTO THIS MORN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNFL REPORTS
AT THIS HR... BUT BASE ON WHAT WE WE ARE OBSVG FOR ACCUMULATION
HERE AT THE WEATHER STATION AT CARIBOU...SN RATIOS APPEAR TO BE
LOW GIVEN SFC AIR TEMPS ARND FZG AND GROUND TEMPS RECENTLY WARMED
BY A COUPLE OF RECENT MILD DAYS. ONE ASSESSMENT THAT WE NEED TO
MAKE IS WHETHER TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF FZRA FOR ANY PTN OF THE FA
THIS MORN...SINCE VERY FEW LCTNS ARE SIG BLO FZG...AND WITH ONLY A
DEG OR TWO RISE IN TEMP NEEDED FOR MOST LCTNS TO RISE ABV FZG AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMER GROUND TEMPS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FZRA AT
MOST LCTNS ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA MAY BE DISSIPATING.

THE BEST LIQ QPF...UPWARDS TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH...WITH THIS EVENT
WILL BE REALIZED OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA...WITH LIKELY ANOTHER
ENHANCED BATCH OF RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING BACK EDGE OF
THE LLVL JET CROSSING THE REGION FROM MID MORN THRU MIDDAY.

MSLY STEADY PRECIP THIS MORN INTO ERLY AFTN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
TO SHWRS LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...WITH SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N AS THE UPPER TROF CROSSES THIS PTN OF THE FA OVRNGT.
SN RATIOS WILL BECOME QUITE LOW EVEN ACROSS FAR NRN PTNS OF THE
FA BY THIS AFTN AS TEMPS CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ABV FZG BY SEVERAL
DEG F...AND THEN CONT A LITTLE ABV FZG INTO THE EVE HRS. BY THE
TIME IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN SHWRS ACROSS THE N LATER
TNGT...ANY REMAINING QPF WILL BE LOW...LMTG ANY LCLZD ACCUMULATING
SNFL TO LESS THAN AN INCH.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WILL BE PULLING AWAY
TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A
WINDY DAY OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WILL EXPERIENCE
SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL NOT BREAK UP NORTH OF
HOULTON UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW 40S NORTH
AND MID TO UPPER 40S FROM MILLINOCKET SOUTHWARD. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SW FLOW...HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S IN BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
HIGHS ALONG THE COAST WILL PROBABLY BE TOWARDS EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY FROM THE COOLER ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME COLD
AIR DAMMING WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION
TO MIX WITH...AND CHANGE TO SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES. A COUPLE OF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WILL ONLY RECEIVE RAIN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY LATE DAY. A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST. THIS JET...THE COASTAL
FRONT AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL FOCUS HEAVY RAIN FOR BANGOR AND
DOWN EAST ZONES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE FLOODING
CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT THE FRONTAL INVERSION TO HOLD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S AROUND BANGOR AND UPPER 30S TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE.
THE INVERSION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM
MIXING TO THE SURFACE ALONG THE COAST...BUT A WIND ADVISORY FOR
COASTAL ZONES IS A DECENT POSSIBILITY.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OVER BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ENDING BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN GUST TOWARDS 30 MPH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F TOWARDS
THE COAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONES AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING WELL BELOW FREEZING...PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE TEENS IN
NORTHERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT. THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MAY START AS SNOW...BUT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT FORECAST AND IT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR WILL CONT THRU MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES...IN SN...MIXED PRECIP AN RN...WITH DOWNEAST SITES
TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THIS AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL CONT IFR OR
LOW MVFR IN RN/SN SHWRS TNGT WHILE DOWNEAST SITES BECOME VFR.

SHORT TERM: TEMPO MVFR CIGS NORTH OF HUL SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR IN RAIN AND
SNOW. PREDOMINANT IFR REMAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
LIFT TO VFR ON BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE ONGOING SCA FOR TDY WITH SE WINDS...WITH
SCA CONDITIONS LASTING AT LEAST WELL INTO TNGT AS WINDS BECOME W
AND WV HTS PERSIST AOA 5 FT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS
FOR THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NW WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SE FLOW.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ002-005-
006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ001-003-
004-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1029 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...THEN STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIPRES HAS MOVED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVE. HI CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET AS A STRONG
140-KT ULVL JET LIFTS NWD. THE ULVL JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN SEABOARD THAT IS POSITIONED
DOWNSTREAM OF A SRN PLAINS TROUGH. SFC REFLECTION OF THE LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LWR MS VLY THIS EVE WILL TRACK NWD TOWARD
THE TN VLY LATE TNGT. INCREASED TEMPS A BIT FROM PREV FCST WITH A
DEVELOPING LGT SELY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S IN
NORTH-CENTRAL AND WRN MD AND LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE- OBSERVED PWAT ON THE 00Z
IAD RAOB SOUNDING ONLY 0.14 INCH. A DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THOUGH IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. A
STRENGTHENING S-SWLY FLOW IN THE LOW- AND MID-LVLS AHEAD OF THE
LOW WILL ADVECT DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE UP THE ERN CONUS TNGT.
ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY SATURATE AND RAIN WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. ONSET TIMING ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO
SLOWER THAN LATEST HRRR SINCE IT MAY TAKE THAT AMOUNT OF TIME FOR
PRECIP ALOFT TO REACH THE GROUND IN SUCH A DRY AIRMASS INITIALLY.

ON MONDAY...SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD FROM TN TO OHIO BY
EVENING. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE
CWA DUE TO POSITIONING THE LOW AND WITH AN IN-SITU CAD SETUP
DEVELOPING. STILL EXPECTING OVERRUNNING RAINFALL TO SPREAD FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STILL NOT COMPLETELY
CONFIDENT ABOUT QPF. ALTHOUGH PWATS ARE HIGH...RANGING FROM AROUND
1.0 PER GFS TO 1.5 PER THE 18Z NAM...12Z/18Z GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHIFTED THE LLJ FURTHER EAST...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OVER SERN VA AND THE DELMARVA. FCST QPF SIMILAR TO LATEST
WPC/RFC WHICH SHOWS QPF WITH THIS EVENT GENERALLY 0.75-1.25 INCHES.
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RFG FLOOD
GUIDANCE SHOWS DC AND ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL MD ARE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
POTENTIAL FLOODING ON SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND URBAN AREAS IN
THE HWO.

CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BASED ON LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE PARENT AND FOCUS OF A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION LATE MONDAY...EVEN MORE COMPLEX FEATURES
WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SOME DIVERGING SOLUTIONS STILL EXIST W/ THE EXACT PROGRESSION
AND EFFECT ON OUR REGION TUE INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MON
NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HRS INTO THE PREDAWN TUE MRNG.

TUE AND WED WILL THEN MARK THE GRADUAL PASSAGE OF A DEEP BUT
MAINLY DRY UPPER TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY BE A COMPLEX
SERIES OF VORT LOBES SWINGING ABOUT THE AXIS...INITIALLY DIGGING
THE BASE ALL THE WAY DOWN TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON TUE...WHILE
ANOTHER VORT SLIPS DOWN THE GREAT LAKES TUE INTO WED AND HELPS TO
PUSH THE SOUTHEAST TROUGH SLOWLY OFF THE COAST ON WED EVE. LIKE
MOST OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGES FROM THE PAST FEW MONTHS...THIS
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS EACH AFTN AND KEEP TEMPS MODERATED A BIT W/
THE DRY NW AND COOLER FLOW - BUT UNLIKE THE OTHERS...THIS WILL
ONLY CAP OUR TEMPS IN THE 50S AND L60S BOTH TUE AND WED - THOUGH
TUE WILL LIKELY BE WARMER.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT JUST HOW COOL WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A
MODERATING SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BRING A WARMER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL /I.E.
AROUND 70 F/.

A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY
THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. FOR
NOW HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
OVER THE WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS SPELLS COOLER AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
AREA...AND AS SUCH HAVE UNDERCUT MAX-TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES.

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNRISE MON MRNG. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE TNGT AT CHO AND MON MORNING ACROSS THE OTHER
TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE MRNG AND AFTN. DUE
TO PRESENCE OF A STRONG LLVL JET AND APRIL SUN ANGLE...PREFERRED
TO KEEP CIGS IN LOW MVFR RANGE DURING THE AFTN VS THE IFR CIGS THE
LAMP WAS ADVERTISING. PDS OF HEAVY RAIN THOUGH MAY LEAD TO IFR
VSBYS. IFR/LIFR LATE IN THE DAY AND MON NGT. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...BECOMING E-SE AROUND 10KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS
TO 20-30KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NGT. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR MON AFTN AND EVE WITH A 50 KT LLVL JET
DEVELOPING 2 KFT AGL.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE MON NIGHT...AS THE MAIN LOW
PRES SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS TOWARD THE NE BUT THE MAIN STORY FROM
LATE MON INTO WED IS THE GUSTY WINDS. WHILE A FEW BATCHES OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PASS BY TUE AND WED...A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SQUEEZE
GUSTY SLY WINDS UP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...THEN GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL COME IN FROM BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE AFTN. WINDS WILL DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN OUT OF THE NW ON WED
AFTN...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY EVENING BECOMES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
HIPRES CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TNGT. SELY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND IN THE SRN
ZONES OF THE MD CHSPK BAY. SCA EXTENDED TO START IN THE MRNG FOR
THESE ZONES AND AFTN FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS. AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE GALES IN THE LATE MON AFTN AND MON NGT WITH A 50 KT JET
NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SFC. THERMAL PROFILES ARE RATHER STABLE BUT
MECHANICAL MIXING MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME STABILITY...ESPECIALLY
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO A
GALE WARNING ATTM BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

WHILE A STRONGER SFC LOW TAKES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/ERN
GREAT LAKES LATE MON NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAKER SFC LOW WILL SLIDE
JUST NORTH OF THE MD CHES BAY. AHEAD OF AN BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE
BREEZY S-SWLY WINDS PUSHING MORE SCA GUSTS OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWING THRU THE
AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HRS TUE AND OFF THE COAST...CARRYING MORE
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE - ESPEC TO THE NRN HALF OF THE
BAY ON TUE AFTN/EVE BEFORE SUBSIDING TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED AFTN...AS A COLD UPPER TROUGH PASSES
OVERHEAD AND MIXES DOWN COOL/DRY AIR THAT WILL AIDE IN BRINGING
DOWN GUSTY WINDS FROM ALOFT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...POSSIBLY TO SCA LEVELS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT TIDES NEAR ASTRONOMICAL NORM THIS EVE. POSITIVE TIDAL
ANOMALIES WILL DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND ON MON AS ONSHORE WINDS
DEVELOP. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING ANOMALIES INCREASING TO
AROUND 1 FT ABOVE FOR MON NGT/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WHICH WOULD
NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ530>532-535-536-538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ533-534-537-541>543.

$$
UPDATE...JRK
PREV DISC...JRK/KCS/GMS/DFH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1258 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WORKS AGAINST MIXING PROCESSES
TO LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER GROWTH. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT AS FORECAST LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMP AND LIGHT
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EASTWARD MOVING HIGH DEVELOPS TOWARD 09Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 302 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING GREAT LAKES CYCLONE AND AND THE SLOWLY PROGRESSING TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD AS EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THESE FEATURES FORCES
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TAKE A FIRM HOLD OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE EVENTUAL FULL
CLEARING OF CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, ALTHOUGH SATELLITE TRENDS
AND RUC GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORT A LESS OPTIMISTIC APPROACH TOWARD
CLEARING THAN SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH
ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT UNUSUAL
FOR THESE REMNANT LOW CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN FORECAST ALONG
WITH A SIGNAL FOR WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY, HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST CONSIDERABLY CLOUDIER FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ALLOWING FOR A RAPID CLEARING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY
FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WELL
MIXED UNTIL SUNSET HELPING TO KEEP A CHILL IN THE AIR UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE DAY. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL TEND TO KEEP CENTRAL U.S. RIDGING IN CHECK AND WILL FAVOR A
MORE ZONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW ALOFT WITH TIME, THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE
OF WHICH WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND A REBOUNDING,
BUT STILL COLDER THAN NORMAL, THERMAL FIELD WILL FAVOR HIGHS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE...40 TO 48 DEGREES. AVERAGE
LOWS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE AROUND 35 DEGREES, SO THE FAVORABLE
RADIATING SCENARIO OF CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE PRODUCING OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 25-29F.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND
SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS UNDER AMPLE DAYTIME SUNSHINE WILL
BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY INTO THE 50S ACROSS SE MI. SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF THE SW GRADIENT SHOULD INHIBIT ONSHORE FLOW FROM
LAKE HURON. INFLUENCE OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAKER MAY HOWEVER TEMPER THE HEATING OVER PORTIONS OF MONROE AND
WAYNE COUNTIES. THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
HOLD INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL WAVE NOW ROTATING INTO THE SWRN
US/NWRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO THE SRN MS VALLEY BY MON
MORNING. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THIS WAVE RAPIDLY EJECTING INTO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES
MON AFTERNOON/MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD
THE ERN GREAT LAKES UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER JET COUPLING. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE A REGION OF GOOD MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WITHIN A WELL
DEFINED TROWAL SIGNATURE ADVANCING INTO SE MI MON AFTERNOON AND
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT AMPLE
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING LARGE
SCALE DYNAMICS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM OVERCOMING THE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SE MI. SO RAIN SHOULD LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
EVEN WITH SOME INITIAL WET BULB COOLING...THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A COLD RAIN DURING THIS EVENT. IF THE FORCING
IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO EXIT LATE MON NIGHT...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A
CHANCE OF A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
DEFORMATION. THIS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING...RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER A HALF AN INCH IN SOME LOCALS CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE.

FAIRLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSES THE ERN US.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN US BREAKING DOWN AS NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TRACKS ACROSS
SRN CANADA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ADVECT
INTO SRN MI BY THURSDAY AND COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO THURS HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 60S. THIS MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SE MI LATE THURS OR THURS
NIGHT.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THUS THE GALE WARNINGS ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON WILL
END BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING THE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS OVER LAKE HURON
MAY GUST UP 25 KNOTS AT TIME OVER LAKE HURON AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

AVIATION.....DT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

655 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUD WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING,
POTENTIALLY LINGERING THROUGH LATE MORNING OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY REMAINING AVIATION ISSUE WILL
BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS WELL-MIXED. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW GUSTS TO SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET, OR PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DEPTH DECREASES IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5 KFT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 302 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.

GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...UNTIL 2 PM SATURDAY.

GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON
INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

302 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

.MARINE...

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1159 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

//DISCUSSION...

WESTERLY GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY EASE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL INTO ONTARIO. A 20 TO 25 KNOT GUST
COMPONENT WILL REMAIN GIVEN THE EXISTING WIND FIELD AND THE PRESENCE
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AS COLDER AIR FUNNELS IN. THIS PROCESS WILL
MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE CANOPY OF MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
POCKET OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ATTENDANT TO AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
MORNING. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST AN OCCASIONAL DIP INTO IFR
WILL BE PLAUSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME. DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PULLS EAST EARLY SATURDAY, PROVIDING A STEADY CLEARING TREND THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

FOR DTW...20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLY GUSTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WITH TIME, SETTLING TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT MVFR
TONIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
IFR CONDITION WITHIN ANY HEAVIER BURSTS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5 KFT EARLY THIS MORNING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PTYPE AS ALL SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.

GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...UNTIL 2 PM SATURDAY.

GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

GALE WARNING...SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
GALE WARNING...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
GALE WARNING...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.

LOW WATER ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

813 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. ALSO..THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMING OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST CWA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ONCE AGAIN SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK CIRCULATIONS
MOVING THROUGH THE FASTER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE MLCAPE FROM THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SITE SHOWING 250 J/KG PLUS INTO THE EVENING.
SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THIS
AREA AS WELL PER LATEST RAP AND NAMWRF. CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...WITH
WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. STILL...CANT RULE OUT
AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. LOOKING
TO THE WEST...THE NEXT FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER FAIR PACKET OF
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH IT SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN MN. DID MENTION SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THERE AS WELL. THE WAVE MOVES
EAST AND VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE SHOWER THREAT MOVES INTO EASTERN
MN/WES CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 12Z MON. DID INCLUDE CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO INCREASE THEM IF TROUGH/WAVE STRENGTHENS
INTO THE NIGHT.

FOG THREAT STILL A QUESTION...BUT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOUND
TO THE EAST...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE SIGNIFICANT MELTING
HAS OCCURRED AND HAS MOISTENED THE BOUNDARY LAYER AGAIN TODAY. WILL
CONTINUE PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED WELL INTO THE 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN
THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST. CAA CONTINUES INTO THE DAY...SO EXPECT SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY 50S...FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

MID LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WHILE LIFT IS MEEK AND LLVL MOISTURE IS SCANT...CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN/WI MONDAY EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN 70S ARE EXPECTED AS H85 TEMPS MODERATE TO BETWEEN +10C AND
+13C. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THIS WARMING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS BEEN RATHER POOR...BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE
WITH TIMING/FORCING IMPROVE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERMAL
PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM ALL POINT TO RAIN...SO PRECIPITATION
TYPES ARE NOT AN ISSUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES RETREAT BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE ALTHOUGH
COOLER...IS ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WEEKEND BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PARTICULARLY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI...AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT
BLASTS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS JET DYNAMICS COME INTO
PLAY. COULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM PER INSTABILITY
PROGS...AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP /RAIN-SNOW OR SNOW/
FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE WHO ARE MORE THAN READY TO BE DONE WITH
WINTER...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE WITH
BRINGING A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGHS COULD
TOP OUT IN THE 30S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

TRICKY FCST IN TERMS OF ISOLD SHWRS OVERNIGHT AT MAINLY KAXN-KSTC-
KMSP...THEN FOG PROBLEMS AT KMSP-KRNH-KEAU AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
FRONT APCHG FROM THE W. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE RATHER MEAGER WITH
IT BUT LOOKING AT HOW CONVECTION BROKE OUT OVER SRN MN THIS
EVENING AND THIS LINES UP WELL WITH NAM/HRRR/HOPWRF MODELS...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO IGNORE THE REST OF THE PROGS SO HAVE TIMED PRECIP
INTO THE THREE NWRN SITES THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. NOT LOOKING FOR
MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTION...MAINLY MVFR-RANGE
INTENSITIES IF ANYTHING AT ALL...AND IT WILL BE RATHER
SPORADIC/SHOWERY AS OPPOSED TO A SOLID -RA. THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR
WITHIN THE 04Z-14Z TIMEFRAME FROM W TO E ACRS THE CWFA. THE NEXT
PROBLEM BECOMES FOG NEAR SUNRISE IN THE ERN TAF SITES. WINDS GOING
NEARLY CALM WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION
WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN LOOKS TO BE PLENTY ENOUGH FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. SREF HITS THE FOG PRETTY HARD AT KEAU-KRNH SO HAVE
DONE THE SAME IN THE TAFS...WITH A LITTLE LESSER GOING WWD. ALL
SITES RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MON MRNG WITH WINDS BECOME
STRONG/GUSTY FROM THE NW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

KMSP...VFR TO START BUT THEN TIMING POTENTIAL PRECIP INTO THE AREA
LOOKS TO START AROUND 10Z. IF ANYTHING...A COUPLE OF POTENTIAL
ALTERNATIVES MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER OR TO NOT HAVE
PRECIP AT ALL BECAUSE THE INCOMING WAVE BECOMES SO WEAK BY THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS THAT PRECIP MAY NOT EVEN DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL
OR VICINITY. ATTM...HAVE RUN WITH PREVAILING 4SM -SHRA TO INDICATE
BOTH INTERMITTENT PRECIP ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTER FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THE TEMPO FOR IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE TO
INDICATE THE STRONGER FOG POTENTIAL. VFR CONDS FROM LATE MRNG ON
WITH INCRG NW WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT...DECRG TO 6-8 KT AFTER 06Z.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WNW 10 KT.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 10-20 KT.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS WITH -RA. WINDS NW 10-20 KT.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1215 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THIS MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. SFC RIDGE WAS CENTERED DOWN BY KANSAS CITY AT 3
AM...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO MN. THIS HAS BROUGHT
US LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WHEN YOU ADD IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BOOST FROM MELTING SNOW YOU GET THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG
FORMATION. NAM/RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUPPORT THE FOG
POTENTIAL AS WELL...WITH HYDROLAPSES INCREASING WITH HEIGHT AND LOW
LEVEL MIXING LIMITED. THE RAP AND ITS SIBLINGS /HRRR AND NARRE/ HAVE
BEEN PRETTY ADAMANT ALL NIGHT ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREAS THAT PICKED UP SNOW YESTERDAY...THOUGH THROUGH 3 AM...THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THEIR FOG DEPICTION OUTSIDE OF NRN
WISCONSIN. LOOKING AT HOPWRF...MEMBER 1 LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY ONE WORTH
LOOKING AT FOR FOG ISSUES...AND IT DOES DEVELOP FOG NORTH OF I-94
WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE COLDEST THIS MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT STILL
AFRAID WE MAY SEE A PRETTY RAPID EXPANSION OF FOG BETWEEN 4AM AND
6AM. FOR NOW...WILL ADD THE FOG MENTION TO THE HWO AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR OBSERVATION TRENDS TO SEE IF WE NEED ANY DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AS WE GET INTO SOME
PRETTY GOOD WAA UP AT H7. HAVE GONE DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT
TERM...AS ANY FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO SHORT-LIVED TO ADEQUATELY
MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN ORDER TO ALLOW PRECIP TO REACH
THE GROUND. THOUGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUGE
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WAS NOT WORTH PLASTERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS LARGE SWATHS OF THE MPX AREA.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...BLENDED A MIX DOWN TO 925 MB OFF THE NAM INTO THE
EXISTING FORECAST. THIS WARMED MOST PLACES A DEGREE OR TWO.
HOWEVER...WITH NORMAL HIGHS NOW SURGING INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...TODAYS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GO
BAGGY AS A SFC TROUGH STALLS OUT OVER MN. THIS WOULD SPELL THE
THREAT FOR MORE FOG POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL..BUT LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FLOATING AROUND TO
KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

THE WEEK AHEAD OFFERS A MUCH BETTER WEATHER PATTERN OVER WHAT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE PRETTY
MINIMAL WITH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THURSDAY BEING DAYS OF CONCERN.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE TIED TO
WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM ALONG WITH A SOUTHERN WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE
POPS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. THE AMERICAN
MODELS ARE THE WET ONES WITH THE GEM AND EC DRY. A LITTLE
DISCONCERTING ARE THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE NMM WRF FROM NEAR EAU CLAIRE ON SOUTHWEST TO ST
JAMES. WE DO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S ALONG WITH A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF ML MU CAPE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OFF THE GFS.
THE ARW WRF INDICATES THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN NE/IA...WHICH IS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GEM/EC. HENCE...SMALL POPS REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA ON SUNDAY.

THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ON
MONDAY GIVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE ALL FOUR MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING OCCURRING.

BEYOND MONDAY...THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH A WARMING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
HIGHS WERE MODIFIED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY USING MIX-DOWN FROM
THE GFS ALONG WITH EC GUIDANCE. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY FROM WEST CENTRAL
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH AROUND 70. EVEN HIGHS IN THE TWIN
CITIES SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 60S. THURSDAY IS A LITTLE TRICKY
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THE SHOWER
CHANCES. MIX-DOWN SUGGESTED RAISING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

MAIN ISSUES REMAIN EXTENT OF CLOUDS COVER INTO TONIGHT AND THE
THREAT OF FOG FORMATION...MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH. WEAK
WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOME
CLOUDS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z...WITH VIRGA THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT...WE MAY
SEE ENOUGH FORCING FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING INTO THE
NORTHEAST AREA/WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL KEEP TAFS DRY FOR NOW
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AT THIS TIME.
CLOUDS MAY EXIT FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL SLACKEN THE
WIND AND WE COULD SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN FOG AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS. WILL MENTION FOG IN THE KAXN/KSTC AREA LATER
TONIGHT...ENDING THROUGH 15Z SUN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS A BIT
GUSTY WEST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME MORE WEST AND LIGHT LATE OVER
WEST CENTRAL MN.

KMSP...
LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CHANCE OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT IF THE THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVE EXIT BEFORE 12Z SUN. APPEARS
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT OVERALL FOG
FORMATION. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS/A BIT GUSTY AT TIME THIS
AFTERNOON/WILL BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST AND LESS THAN 10KTS INTO
SUNDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR/-RA. WINDS N 5-10KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/-RA EARLY...BCMG VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

547 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SFC RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD VIS RESTRICTIONS IN
BR HAVE STARTED TO QUICKLY EXPAND ACROSS MN/WI SINCE 5 AM.
FORTUNATELY...WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH NIGHT LEFT TO LET THE FOG
EXPAND...SO DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM WHAT THE 6Z TAFS HAD WITH
RESPECT TO FOG/BR. AS SRLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY...WILL SEE A
BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS COME ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVELS LOOK TO
BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO KEEP PRECIP AS VIRGA...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
A STRAY SHOWER OVER IN WRN WI LATE SAT NIGHT. CURRENT HOPE ON FOG
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD IS THAT MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL BE
EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG...BUT THAT COULD BE IFFY FOR WRN MN
WHERE WINDS WILL BE GOING LGT AND VRB AS WELL.

KMSP...WILL HAVE SOME NOTHING WORSE THAN MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS IN
BR THIS MORNING...THAT SHOULD BE ALL CLEARED UP BY 14Z. WILL HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY...BUT IT WILL ALL BE ABOVE 7K FT. IN
GENERAL...CONFIDENCE IN ALL ASPECTS OF TAFS IS HIGH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR/-RA. WINDS N 5-10KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/-RA EARLY...BCMG VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

345 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH MELTING
SNOW...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT WE END
UP WITH SOME WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HYDROLAPSES FROM THE NAM/RAP
CERTAINLY SUPPORT DENSE FOG FOR ALL BUT RWF AND AXN...WHERE WINDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS MIXED. THE HRRR/RAP/NARRE HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG/EAST
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FOR NOW...TRIED TO HINT AT THE FOG POTENTIAL
WITH SOME TEMPO 1SM VIS FOR STC/RNH/EAU...BUT WILL BE KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON THE FOG POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN THE FOG...WILL JUST SEE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND
SFC TROUGH MOVE INTO MN.

KMSP...ALTHOUGH NO FOG MENTION CAN CURRENTLY BE FOUND FOR
MSP...WOULD NOT RULE IT OUT AT THIS POINT GIVEN ALL OF THE SNOW
MELT WE HAVE SEEN COMBINED WITH A DEWPOINT THAT HAS REMAINED
STEADY IN THE MID 20S. IF FOG DOES FORM...IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE...WITH IT MOST LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE 10-13Z WINDOW. OTHER
THAN THAT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH REST OF TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR/-RA. WINDS N 5-10KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/-RA EARLY...BCMG VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1217 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS EVENING...BUT SATELLITE DID SHOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND PATCHY LOW VFR CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND
THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING EAST. SOME FOG HAS FORMED OVER KHYR...AND
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND WE
DROPPED THE WARNING FOR BAYFIELD/SAWYER/PRICE COUNTIES EARLIER
THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE REMAINING
WARNINGS FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS WELL SOON AS VSBYS HAVE
IMPROVED QUITE A BIT AT KIWD.

FURTHER WEST...CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER OUR MINNESOTA
ZONES...WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS EXPANDING JUST WEST OF OUR CWA. WE
DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER WEST OF A KAIT TO KCDD LINE THIS EVENING.
THE RAP DOES BRING THESE CLOUDS EAST THIS EVENING...THEN HAS THEM
DIMINISHING LATE EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

THE MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT BROUGHT AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS A FOOT AND
A HALF TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT. A GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BAND OF SNOW HAD SET UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD AND PINE COUNTY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE MECHANISM RESPONSIBLE APPEARS TO BE SHUTTING
OFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REMOVE MORE COUNTIES FROM THE
WARNING. WILL HANG ON TO THE WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF NW
WI...SPECIFICALLY BAYFIELD AND SAWYER COUNTY EASTWARD. HEAVY SNOW
RECENTLY AT THE IRONWOOD STATION...WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT
ASHLAND. THINK THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO MORE IN SPOTS FOR THE
EVENING...WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE. THE HRRR ACTUALLY CUTS THINGS OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY
THOUGH THIS EVENING SO THAT WOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS IF THINGS SHUT OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL ALSO HANG ON TO SOME FLURRIES FURTHER
WESTWARD AS SOME DIURNAL CLOUD COVER HAD DEVELOPED AND BROUGHT
SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.

ONCE THE SNOW COMES TO AN END TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE
TEENS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTH.

THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF MELTING ON SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S. ONLY
EXCEPTION IN TERMS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

OVERALL PATTERN THIS PERIOD FEATURES A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED
NEAR FNTL BDRY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS IT INITIALLY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO CWA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY SO LOW POPS REMAIN IN FCST
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THE OVERALL FORCING IS QUITE WEAK AND DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A DRY SPELL WILL UNFOLD
TUES/WED BEFORE NEXT FNTL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WED
NIGHT/THUR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST HAS
LED TO CLEARING SKIES LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS
WELL...AND SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED AT KHYR. WE EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD FORM AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA SATURDAY EVENING. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. WE
JUMPED ON THIS AS A LOW INVERSION DEVELOPS DURING THE EVENING AND
THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. AT THIS TIME...WE WENT WITH A LOW MVFR DECK
BUT CEILINGS MAY END UP BEING LOWER. WE WILL LET LATER SHIFTS REFINE
THOSE CEILINGS/VSBYS AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 28 44 29 44 / 20 10 10 20
INL 26 46 26 45 / 20 10 10 20
BRD 29 48 29 48 / 10 20 20 30
HYR 29 47 30 47 / 20 20 20 30
ASX 28 44 29 43 / 20 20 10 20

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1119 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

OVERALL PATTERN THIS PERIOD FEATURES A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED
NEAR FRNTL BDRY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS IT INITIALLY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO CWA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY SO LOW POPS REMAIN IN FCST
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THE OVERALL FORCING IS QUITE WEAK AND DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A DRY SPELL WILL UNFOLD
TUES/WED BEFORE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WED
NIGHT/THUR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM 3500-5000FT. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 4000FT WAS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE RAP
DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS MOVING EAST THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHES
THEM LATE EVENING.

WE ADDED SOME FOG TO THE TAFS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR LATE. WE DID NOT LOWER REMAIN AND THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN AREAS LATE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 16 39 28 44 / 10 0 20 10
INL 16 45 26 46 / 0 0 20 10
BRD 16 45 29 48 / 0 0 10 20
HYR 12 42 29 47 / 10 0 20 20
ASX 14 40 28 44 / 40 0 20 20

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATES A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...ZONAL FLOW EXTENDED
FROM THE PACIFIC NW COAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER EAST...A
STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SRN QUEBEC
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE SRN STREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN ARIZONA WITH HT FALLS OF 50 TO 130 METERS
NOTED FROM EL PASO TO TUSCON. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND EASTERN COLORADO. FURTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER
NRN MISSOURI. DECENT SRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE SRLY WINDS...ALLOWED FOR DECENT
MIXING BY MID MORNING WHICH PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. BY 2 PM CDT...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURE RANGED
FROM 57 AT NORTH PLATTE...TO 65 AT VALENTINE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SAGGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SHORTLY BEHIND. A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH YET
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE ISOLATED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM GARDEN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY AS INDICATED LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS WHERE CAPES OF 100-250 J/KG EXIST. ALSO...THE
LATEST NAM AND HRRR BOTH FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA.
TONIGHT...THE NAM IS HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN THE NORTH.
BELIEVE THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT WORTH MONITORING. TOMORROW...AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS CO/KS...WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES ESE FROM WY INTO NE LATER IN THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS MODELS ARE GENERATING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LIFT IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE. A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL RUN FROM AROUND ONEILL TO IMPERIAL TOMORROW AS WELL.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH RATHER
LOW CAPES OF ABOUT 100-200 J/KG. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE BEST
ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN FORECASTING
CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...APPROACHING NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...ABUNDANT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CARRY OVER
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS HAVE NEGATIVE LI`S SUNDAY EVENING WITH
UNSTABLE CONDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. INHERITED FCST HAD A
MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY EVENING...AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THIS RIGHT NOW. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL WANE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS
WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING PACIFIC COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MILD TEMPS MONDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FAR
WEST TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE FOR LOWS MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WITH EXPECTED MIXING...LOWS ON THE ORDER OF
MID 30S IN THE WEST...TO UPPER 30S IN THE EAST SEEM TO BE A BETTER
FIT TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE
INHERITED FCST. WITH WARMER LOWS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING...THE
MENTION OF SNOW WAS SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE ONLY THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND A SLIVER OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
MONDAY.

ON MONDAY...STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THE LATEST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH WINDS THIS MORNING...AND IS
INDICATIVE OF ADVISORY SPEED WINDS FROM LATE MORNING MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE RAMPED UP WINDS IN THE GRIDS
AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE SHORT TERM DESK MENTION THE WIND THREAT
IN THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO WIND...VERY COLD H500
TEMPS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
SURFACE HEATING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST AND HAVE LINGERED THEM THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY AIR...LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE INDICATIVE OF A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETTING UP MONDAY
NIGHT AS WARMER H85 AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEY...TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. ON TUESDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH WARMER H85 TEMPS OF 8 TO 14C WILL PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO 10 TO 20 MPH...AS WELL AND
MAY GUST UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND FCST HIGHS IN THE 60S MAY PUSH FIRE
DANGER TO EXTREME OR NEAR CRITICAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE LONG RANGE...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DEVELOPING RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE
THREAT FOR PCPN LATE NEXT WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BE
SUPPRESSED AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...LOW DEW POINTS AND WIND...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY AND WILL MENTION THIS IN
THE HWO. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN
TIER OF STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SRLY STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE LATEST MID RANGE SOLNS ARE
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO WE
MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
EJECTS ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY
...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AT KVTN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF
KVTN AND NORTH OF KLBF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO...THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS OR FOG IN THE KVTN AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. LOWER CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

359 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH A WARM SUNNY DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STILL MONITORING THE
THREAT FOR UPSLOPE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT...BUT LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE BEST PV AND MOISTURE ARE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BY THE
TIME THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY FAVORING UPSLOPE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL COUNTERACT ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY UPSLOPE THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN
GREENS FROM MOUNT MANSFIELD NORTH TO JAY PEAK THROUGH A FEW HOURS
PAST MIDNIGHT WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A
GENERAL CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF
SKY COVER AND SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 8 KNOTS TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOWS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE BTV CWA FOR SUNDAY MAKING FOR
A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 0C SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE TO LOCALLY 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVERHEAD OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S EXPECTED. FOR MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS APPROACH. P-GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN 925MB TEMPS AROUND +5C
PUNCHING HIGHS INTO THE 50S. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN DEVELOPING LATE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF MIX ON THE
SUMMITS...BUT QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASE S-SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SATURDAY...RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SFC LOW VCNTY OF
WRN NY BRINGING WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES AND PCPN LIFTS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS (70-80
PERCENT)...BUT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHTER SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING UPR TROUGH AND
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT. COINCIDENT LOW-LEVEL CAA TUESDAY NIGHT
MAY ALLOW LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS VT...WITH
UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODERATE
GRADIENT FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP NW WINDS 10-20 MPH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. STILL SOME NWLY
GRADIENT FLOW WEDNESDAY...SO WINDS NW 10-20 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. WITH 850MB
TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S (UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS). CLEAR
AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. RETURN LOW-LEVEL S-SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES
TO THE EAST THURSDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY INTO
THE MID-UPR 50S MOST SECTIONS...WITH A FEW HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

CARRIED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAY END AS A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS FRIDAY.
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY (HIGHS LOW-MID 50S).

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...AVIATION WX CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION
CURRENTLY BRINGING VFR CEILINGS...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AT SLK
WITH LOW-LEVEL SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW. INCLUDED VCSH THRU 00Z ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT KRUT...AND INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR VSBY IN -SHSN
ACTIVITY AT KSLK. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...GENERALLY SW TO
WSWLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. CHANNELED FLOW IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL LOCALLY CONTRIBUTE TO WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-32
KTS THRU 02Z TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. DRIER AIR MASS
RESULTS IN CLEARING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD ACROSS NY WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY WNW AROUND 10
KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY INTO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GUSTY WNWLY TO NWLY WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OCCASIONALLY VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK. CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

1010 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS.
SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S
MOUNTAINS AND 40S VALLEYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT SATURDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL LOOKING
FOR AN INCREASE IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
DACKS ON SW FLOW...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ON WNW FLOW...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LATEST RAP INDICATING LESS POTENTIAL. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS INTACT FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. TEMPS TODAY GOING JUST
ABOUT NOWHERE ON VEERING FLOW TO THE WNW ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL
FRONTAL PASSAGES. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND SLIGHTLY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE POTENTIAL FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS/WINDS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRNT ACRS CENTRAL NY ATTM
WITH GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS OBSERVED
BEHIND THIS FEATURE. ALSO...NOTED SECONDARY 5H VORT DROPPING ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE IN
TROF AXIS...WHICH WL IMPACT OUR CWA THIS AFTN. SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH GOOD MOISTURE FROM SFC THRU
700MB...FAVORABLE 270 TO 290 FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...AND SOME
ENHANCED 1000 TO 700MB OMEGA...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE WESTERN
SLOPES/NORTHERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-03Z. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE FREEZING
LEVEL DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STRONG LLVL CAA DEVELOPS AND
PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BTWN -8C AND -10C. THINKING THIS WL RESULT
IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S ACRS THE MTNS WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL EXPECTED DOWN TO 1200 FEET EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN/EVENING.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE BTWN 3-5 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET BY 06Z
TONIGHT WHERE RATIOS WL BE HIGHER TO A DUSTING TO 3 INCHES ABOVE
1200 FEET...WITH LOWER SNOW RATIOS ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER BL
CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN THIS ACCUMULATIONS WL BE BY 06Z SUNDAY. WL
MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM SUGARBUSH
TO STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS...WITH BEST TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIP BTWN 18Z-03Z. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLW WL LIMIT
PRECIP/QPF ACRS THE CPV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY TODAY...THEREFORE
WL MENTION CHC POPS. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUD SKIES WITH UPSTREAM
SATL PICS SHOWING PLENTY OF STRATUS CUMULUS CLOUDS. TEMPS WL BE
TRICKY WITH LLVL CAA...BUT THINKING L/M 40S VALLEYS TO TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE U20S/L30S MTNS ABOVE 1200 FT. IN ADDITION...THE
LLVL CAA WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WEST WINDS AT 15 TO
30 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS
AND EXPOSED TRRN.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS...WHICH WL PROVIDE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR SUGARING WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. ANY
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE/WEAKEN BY 06Z
SUNDAY...AS MOISTURE AND WINDS DECREASE. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC/LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER TWD MORNING. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE L20S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO M/U 20S ELSEWHERE. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING FROM INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U 30S MTNS
TO M/U 40S VALLEYS. EXPECTING A 15 TO 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY...BTWN THE VALLEYS AND MTN SUMMITS. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE U10S TO M20S BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A MID SLOPE THERMAL BELT LIKELY GIVEN
WARMING 925MB TO 850MB TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL
PRODUCE LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.
MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST WITH DEEP DRY
LAYER OVERHEAD THRU 18Z MONDAY. MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS/RH INCREASE
PER 1000 TO 500MB RH FIELDS FROM SW TO NE AFT 18Z MONDAY. PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 2C AND 925MB NEAR 7C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S...WITH MAYBE A 60 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER CPV AWAY FROM LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. AS ALWAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR...WL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LLVL
THERMAL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD/FROZEN LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...RESULTING IN LIMITED MIXING WITH LIGHT WINDS. RAIN
ARRIVES TWD 00Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY EVENING INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
MORNING...SUPPORTED BY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE FROM GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...AND OVERSPREADS FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING.
GREATEST FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z TUESDAY...WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE STEADIEST.
ITS LOOKING TO BE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH SOME COOL AIR WITH TEMPS NEAR 0C
BEING DEPICTED BETWEEN 925 AND 850 MB. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

DURING TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AS DRY
SLOT WORKS INTO REGION AND BEST FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50. TOTAL QPF MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD NOT POSE ANY MAJOR
HYDRO CONCERNS...BUT COMBINATION OF THE RAIN...AND SNOWMELT FROM
MILD WEATHER PRECEDING THE RAIN...WILL RESULT IN RISING RIVER
LEVELS AND BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT OF ICE ON SOME RIVERS...WHICH WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

AS LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER
UPSLOPE FAVORED NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR NORTH SENDS ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 40S...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK. HAVE GONE
WITH VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXCEPT SLK WHERE
PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
END THIS EVENING. CIGS MOSTLY MVFR THIS MORNING...WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR POSSIBLE AT AT MPV/BTV. CIGS TREND VFR THIS AFTERNOON AT
RUT/PBG/BTV...BUT NOT TILL TONIGHT AT REST OF SITES.
WINDS SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT MSS/SLK TODAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS
AT REST OF SITES BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR IN RAIN. GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR AT TIMES IN RAIN
SHOWERS...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS SLK/MPV.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

148 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:45 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE NC/SC WESTERN PIEDMONT IS
MAKING GOOD PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BEFORE DAYBREAK. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THE
AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE WARM...WITH A BAND OF REASONABLY THICK MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. ADD TO THAT PLENTY
OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND IT IS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM EVENING
INLAND FROM THE BEACHES.

RADAR HAS REMAINED QUIET SO FAR...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING
OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE ARE NO FAVORABLY
POSITIONED JET STREAKS TO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE ITSELF IS QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG AND HIGH-RES HRRR MODEL PROGS
STILL SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS I AM
HOLDING ONTO THE 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE MID 60S JUST INLAND
FROM THE NC COAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT MAY TAKE AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK TO FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE...WAITING ON A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TO MOVE BY TO OUR N.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND THE FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL HAVE ALREADY
MOVED OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...SO WILL CONFINE POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST EARLY ON TO ALREADY BELOW FURTHER
INLAND WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING. MODEST MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODEST COOL AND DRY
ADVECTION WITH SUNSHINE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S AND THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK TO THE N SUN
AND SUN NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL SHIFT
TO E AND SE LATE IN THE DAY SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
NEARS. THE COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED OR NEARLY SO THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...NEAR A HALF INCH SAT...WILL BE
RISING DURING SUN AND THEN PEAK SUN NIGHT...AROUND AN INCH AND A
HALF. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE RAMPING HIGHER...ESPECIALLY SUN
NIGHT AS MUCH WARMER AND VERY MOIST AIR OVERRIDES THE SHALLOW COOL
AIRMASS AT/NEAR THE SURFACE. TIMING IS STILL NOT NAILED DOWN...BUT
WILL BEGIN INCREASING POPS FROM S TO N SUN...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH POPS RAMPING TO CATEGORICAL SUN NIGHT. GIVEN
INCREASING CAPE VALUES...WILL INCLUDE SMALL MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF
INCH WITH MORE CONVECTION LIKELY ON MON.

DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ON SUN...WHEN CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKEST...MAINLY MID 60S. SAT...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL
BE ABLE TO RISE WELL UP INTO THE 70S IF NOT HIT 80 ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLEST NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL
OCCUR SAT NIGHT...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE MOST PART. CLOUDS
AND BETTER MIXING SUN NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER...NEAR
50 TO THE MID 50S. THESE LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED EARLY IN
THE EVE...THEN RISING OVERNIGHT AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS
TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO SURGE N.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE EMPHASIS REMAINS ON THE COMPLEX AND POTENT
STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STILL A LOT TO BE DETERMINED AS FAR AS POSITIONING AND TIMING BUT
OVERALL POPS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE
EVENT WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD SLOW
THE PROGRESS. I HAVE INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR ALL OF THESE
PERIODS PER HIGHER CONFIDENCE. ALSO A BIT EARLY ON THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE WEATHER BUT PER SPC DISCUSSIONS...INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE THE WILD CARD. BEYOND
THIS...A WESTERLY/FLATTER FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE MID LEVELS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WEDNESDAY MODERATING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERED CIGS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE POSSIBILITY CONTINUES FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALONG WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR...ESPECIALLY INLAND. BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB
10 KTS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. BECOMING
VFR TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:45 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY A STRONG SEABREEZE CIRCULATION COUPLED WITH
MODERATE SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WIND CREATED WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT
THE BEACHES EARLIER. THESE REALLY STRONG WINDS HAVE DIED
AWAY...BUT A BACKGROUND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 20 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE UP UNTIL ALMOST DAYBREAK. WHEN COUPLED WITH 4-5 FOOT SEAS
AN "EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL REMAIN APPENDED TO THE
FORECAST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHTER WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A T-STORM MAY
PRECEDE THE FRONT LATE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT
MORNING...SHIFTING SW WINDS TO N AND THEN NE. NE WINDS SAT NIGHT
WILL VEER TO E SUN AFTERNOON AND TO SE SUN NIGHT AS THE STALLED COLD
FRONT TO OUR S BEGINS TO ADVANCE N. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE NEAR
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SUBSIDING. SEAS
WILL REVERSE HIGHER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...RUGGED CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS USUAL...STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY AT THIS POINT NOT THE
STRONGEST I HAVE SEEN. STILL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TO 20-25 KNOTS BY DAYS END
MONDAY AND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY BUT LOOK FOR A LATE DAY ARRIVAL.
WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LOOK FOR WINDS FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW VALUES TO
DROP WEDNESDAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/SHK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1233 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING FROM NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT STANLEY. WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES. MAINLY TO RAISE HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES IN MANY AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION REPORTED AT WILLISTON AS HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES MOVED OVER THE AIRPORT. EXPECT MOST OF THESE ARE
NOT REACHING THE GROUND. YET WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A SAGGING COLD FRONT SHOULD
INCREASE COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

MORNING REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. ONLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP INDICATIVE OF A WESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO NOTE...THE FIRST WAS MOVING
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
WAS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH WEAK RADAR RETURNS THERE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA. THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO WILLISTON
BY 18Z AND EXIT NEAR CARRINGTON BY 06Z SUNDAY. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND
THE LATEST HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS. EXPECT THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SATURDAY...THEN
CONTINUE TO SCOOT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING 300-400 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH 25KT-30KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE AND THE SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER. WITH
MODEL DISCREPANCY AND SPC KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST OUT OF ANY
GENERAL THUNDER MENTION...HAVE OPTED NOT TO ADD ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER AS OF NOW...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE ADVERTISED PER GFS TO
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SATURDAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR
WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER.
NAM HOURLY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE COLDER AT THE SURFACE THAN THE
GFS. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30. A WARM LAYER NEAR 850MB WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
DEPTH TO MELT ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO THIS LAYER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVER NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...SHOWALTER INDICES ARE
PROGGED TO DIP TO NEAR ZERO OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE DECREASING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A STRONGER SECONDARY WAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO PIVOT OVER THE STATE
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE TOO WARM FOR THUNDER
TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 6 FORECAST. DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEST AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER WEST FOR FRIDAY AS A
RESULT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR LIGHT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
KISN...KMOT...AND KDIK. HOWEVER PROBABILITIES AT EACH AERODROME IS
LOW SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A VCSH AT KMOT 18-19Z. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRODUCING A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN AT KISN...THOUGH LARGE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR
FREEZING RAIN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE SUNDAY FOR EACH OF THE
TAF SITES...WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
KISN...KMOT...AND KDIK.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

928 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. ONLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEST AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER WEST FOR FRIDAY AS A
RESULT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS REMAINING ISOLATED...ONLY A VCSH IS WARRANTED FOR NOW
AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK. OVERALL...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

642 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. ONLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEST AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER WEST FOR FRIDAY AS A
RESULT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS REMAINING ISOLATED...A VCSH IS WARRANTED FOR NOW AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK. OVERALL...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEST AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER WEST FOR FRIDAY AS A
RESULT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED
WITH BOTH FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONLY PRECIPITATION THREAT IS AT THE
KISN AND KMOT WHERE ONLY A VCSH WILL BE ADVERTISED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1158 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WHICH WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY. PER LATEST
REGIONAL AND MINOT RADAR...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR/ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER IN BOTTINEAU AND
ROLETTE COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE MINOT SOUNDING SHOWS A LARGE DRY
LAYER OF AIR BENEATH 9000FT...AND NOT SEEING ANYTHING REACHING THE
GROUND PER OBSERVATIONS AS OF YET...AND NOTHING CONCLUSIVE ON THE
WESTHOPE WEBCAM. THE RADAR RETURNS ARE MOVING QUICKLY EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. OTHERWISE THE HRRR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY FORECAST THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY KEEPS ANY PROSPECTS FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG WELL EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
MID CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
MIXING OVERNIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15KT...SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FOG. THE EXCEPTION...JAMESTOWN MAY EXPERIENCE
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHTER WINDS. WILL
MONITOR AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

NWS RADARS SHOW LIGHT RETURNS ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH. DOUBT THE
PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 32 COULD
STILL SEE AN ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN REPORT BUT PRETTY LOW
PROBABILITY ON THIS THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

VISIBLE SAT LOOPS SHOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA/
REFINED THE EVENING CHANCE TO SHOWERS NORTHWEST. ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE CENTRAL FOR FOG AS WELL AS THIS
AREA WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RESULT IN A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION TRACKING EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE WARM ADVECTION A TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
ALTHOUGH CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES TONIGHT.

ANOTHER CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND
FOG. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL ALERT NEXT SHIFT
BUT HOLD OFF ON A MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW.

SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SAG DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
TIER COUNTIES TURNING SURFACE FLOW MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW MEETS UP WITH
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE TO
NEAR 50...AND COLD TEMPERATURES REMAINING ALOFT IN A WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A CLAP OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE AS SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
MORNING...RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG/AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH.

THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL
HAVE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (GFS) OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(ECMWF). FOR NOW THE BLENDED FORECAST WOULD KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1154 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

ADDED PATCH FOG IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES FROM HCO TO TVF. OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
OVERNIGHT. AREAS RADARS SHOWING WEAK RETURN OVER OVER NORTHWEST ND
BUT GIVEN HIGH CEILINGS, PRECIP NOT REACHING THE GROUND. WILL KEEP
FLURRIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWERED TEMPS FOR NORTHERN MN AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE
TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

TWEAKED WIND A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED FOR CLOUD COVER. WILL
LOOK AT TEMPS AT THE NEXT UPDATE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TONIGHTS LOWS AS A
RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM PILOT MOUND...MB DOWN THROUGH
EUREKA...SD SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...ENTERING MN SIDE
OF THE VALLEY BY AROUND 06Z TO 08Z. A WEAK COOL FRONT CLIPS THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY EARLY SAT MORNING. GENERALLY LIKE A BLEND OF
THE NAM AND ECMWF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BULLISH WITH MOISTURE AND
HAS A COUPLE OF PERIODS (THE LAST TWO RUNS) WITH QPF BULLSEYES.
NAM/ECMWF IS GENERALLY DRIER.

TONIGHT...ATTM DIFFICULT TO ASSESS TRUE CLOUD COVER WITH SOME
AREAS THINNING/CLEARING...BUT DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE LOW
CLOUDS FROM RECENT SNOW IN OTHER AREAS. IN GENERAL..APPEARS CLOUDS
ARE THINNING...AND THE RUC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON IT CLEARING OUT AFT 00Z ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST. CERTAINLY THINK BY 06Z AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT THEN
SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVING INTO SASK WILL
MOVE ACROSS MB IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME...AND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE I DID REMOVE POPS AND GO WITH FLURRIES OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING WITH SPRINKLES NORTHEAST BY NOON. GFS SOUNDINGS DRY MID
LEVELS OUT INDICATING POSSIBLE DRIZZLE BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THAT
POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL SEE BREEZY SFC WINDS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS SHIFT NW EARLY EVENING AND
BEFORE SFC HIGH BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT. SFC LOWS COULD BE
COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING IN AREAS OF FRESHER SNOW AS
WE SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE
NORTH...WARMER TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE WILL STILL HAVE
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE SKY COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL SEE STRONGER RETURN FLOW SET UP SUN AFTN
AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO 5OS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS IN
SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH A SFC LOW/WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS
AREA SUN NIGHT...WITH NAM SHOWING SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
LATE SUN AFTN BUT GENERALLY DRY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF SIMILAR TO NAM WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION
MINUS LATE SUN AFTN ACTIVITY. GFS BRINGS ACROSS MORE MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS SUN AFTN BUT LIMITS PRECIP TO SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA SUN NIGHT. AGAIN...GENERALLY LIKE THE DRIER SOLUTION
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY GULF MOISTURE LIKELY BEING ROBBED BY STRONG
CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN (BECOMING RAIN/SNOW BY
EARLY MON MORNING) ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH LOW POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF HILLSBORO.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE N CENTRAL US INTO MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A STEADY WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES TOPPING OUT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN 60S LOOKS LIKELY.
FLOW THEN FLATTENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR FLATTENING THE RIDGE WILL
DROP THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FROPA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATED MVFR CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OR FROM NORMAN AND CLAY COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD TO GRANT COUNTY. A NARROW FINGER EXTEND NORTH TO GFK.
WESTERN EDGE OF DECK CONTINUES MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 15 KNOTS.
SOUTHERN END OF THE BAND WAS DISSIPATING. EXPECT THE BAND TO
DISSIPATE AROUND 09Z.

SECOND NARROW BAND EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF BJI TO NEAR ROX WITH CIGS
AROUND 35 TO 45 HUNDRED FT. BAND WAS BECOMING MORE NARROW WITH TIME.
EXPECT THE BAND TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z.

HIGHER CLOUDS WERE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND MASKING LOWER
CLOUDS.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

746 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING
STORM ON THE GULF COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING VIS SATL IMAGERY SHOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL PA WITH JUST A BIT OF CIRRUS IN SPOTS. HIGH LVL WAA AHEAD
OF DEEPENING MISS VALL TROF WILL SPREAD INCREASING CIRRUS ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER DARK. HOW QUICKLY CIRRUS SHIELD ARRIVES WILL
DETERMINE HOW COLD IT GETS TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING BASED ON
UPSTREAM SATL TRENDS AND RAP OUTPUT...IS THAT CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
BTWN 01Z-04Z OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...BUT REMAIN THIN ENOUGH FOR
ADDITIONAL RAD COOLING AND MIN TEMPS IN THE L30S.

LATEST MDL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH DAWN OVR
THE ENTIRE AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z ACROSS
THE S TIER.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT AS A DEVELOPING STORM TAKES AIM AT THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN
TO THE AREA. THE NOSE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SSE LLJ WILL BE
SURGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PUSHING AN AREA
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS INTO THE REGION. ENSEMBLE PLUMES SUGGEST
A WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN ON THE ORDER OF .50" TO 1.00"
STARTING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTH...AND REACHING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

WE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY COLD AIR DAMMED MONDAY...SO TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT AND
BECOME MAINLY ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO SWING EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.

COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BEHIND THE
MONDAYS RAIN-MAKER...AND STICK AROUND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES BY.

THURSDAY LOOKS MILD AND MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BLEEDING ACROSS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A GUSTY SW FLOW SHOULD
HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A
BROAD COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE REGION. WITH A LITTLE
PUSH FROM THIS SECOND FRONT...THE MAIN INITIAL FRONT WILL
HOPEFULLY PUSH SOUTH OF PA...LOWERING THE POPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MOVE IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SRLY FLOW MOVING INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...ALLOWING FOR FAIR WEATHER AND A CHANCE AT ANOTHER WARM UP.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLDS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NE INTO THE LOWER LAKES AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY SE WIND BY MONDAY AFT...ALONG
WITH A STEADY RAIN. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL FORM AND LINGER
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

LLWS LIKELY LATER MONDAY...AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE.
KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN LOWER AND
THICKEN RAPIDLY DURING MONDAY AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST
OF THE REGION.

LOOK FOR RESTRICTED FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY-MID DAY
TUESDAY...BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SHOWERS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TUESDAY...WITH MANY AREAS RETURNING TO
VFR DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WESTERN MOUNTAINS...KJST
UP THROUGH KBFD...MAY CONTINUE WITH LOWER CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY IN THE COOL-MOIST NW FLOW.

OUTLOOK...

.TUE...MVFR WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS N/W. MVFR TO VFR CNTRL-EAST.

.WED...MAINLY VFR.

.THU...MAINLY VFR.

.FRI...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1254 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

THE ONLY MINOR TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO BUMP
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CWA.
THE K9V9 OB IS ALREADY READING 49 DEGREES THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT
THAT MID 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THAT AREA. MAY HAVE
TO ADD A FOG MENTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE AREAS WHERE GREATEST SNOW MELT OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MAKE THAT MODIFICATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ALL OTHER FORECAST FIELDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. ACCAS FIELD IS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES BUT HARD TO SAY IF ANYTHING IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND WITH THE LACK OF SFC OBS AND FAIRLY
DRY AIR. WHATS INTERESTING TO NOTE THOUGH IS THAT A HANDFUL OF
MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW VIRGA/SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING/EXPANDING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL SD. THE HRRR IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
AND FEEL ITS A BIT OVERDONE. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AND ACTUAL IMPACTS...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SEVERAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING QPF
FROM AROUND BROOKINGS OVER TO THE TWIN CITIES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO MN.
AGAIN...SOMETHING TO MONITOR BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
TIME BEING.

BIGGER STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WARMING TEMPS IN WHAT WILL
START A PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER TEMPS WHICH LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. TEMPS AT 925/850 MB WARM INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS TODAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS SETTING
UP. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH SOME AREAS FLIRTING WITH 60. ONLY REAL NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ON MONDAY.

OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSS
THE REGION. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY
COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS BUILDING OVER THE CWA. THAT SHOULD PROVE TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR A DAY OR TWO...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO CREEP
BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

THERE IS STILL A STRONG SIGNAL AND SUPPORT FOR A RATHER WARM DAY
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TAKE TURNS
INCLUDING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS POST-FRONTAL MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOW ON
PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
NATURE OF THIS COLD FROPA SINCE A STRONG PRESSURE TENDENCY APPEARS
TO BE ATTACHED TO IT...IN ADDITION TO A SMALL RIBBON OF RELATIVELY
STRONG 0.5KM WINDS POST FRONTAL. THE CWA APPEARS TO UNDERGO SOME
SIGNIFICANT COOLING WITH THIS FROPA WITH AN AIRMASS TEMPERATURE
CHANGE OF 10-15C DEGREES IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...RETURNING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.

THEN...BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO
TAKE ON MORE OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET-FAVORABLE ORIENTATION WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP AHEAD OF
WHAT COULD BE THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF TO WORK THROUGH THE COUNTRY`S
MID-SECTION. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO ASSIGN
SOME LIGHT SHOWERY PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AS IT POINTS UP INTO THIS CWA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND
ALLBLEND INCLUDED POPS FOR THIS.

THE GFS IS STILL TRYING TO GET IT TOGETHER REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
HEADING INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH...WITH THE LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM
AT ABR AND ATY. VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO 1 TO 3 MILES AND MAYBE
EVEN LOWER AT ATY.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1045 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ONLY MINOR TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO BUMP
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CWA.
THE K9V9 OB IS ALREADY READING 49 DEGREES THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT
THAT MID 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THAT AREA. MAY HAVE
TO ADD A FOG MENTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE AREAS WHERE GREATEST SNOW MELT OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MAKE THAT MODIFICATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ALL OTHER FORECAST FIELDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. ACCAS FIELD IS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES BUT HARD TO SAY IF ANYTHING IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND WITH THE LACK OF SFC OBS AND FAIRLY
DRY AIR. WHATS INTERESTING TO NOTE THOUGH IS THAT A HANDFUL OF
MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW VIRGA/SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING/EXPANDING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL SD. THE HRRR IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
AND FEEL ITS A BIT OVERDONE. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AND ACTUAL IMPACTS...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SEVERAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING QPF
FROM AROUND BROOKINGS OVER TO THE TWIN CITIES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO MN.
AGAIN...SOMETHING TO MONITOR BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
TIME BEING.

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
POSSIBLE SIGN THAT SPRING IS HERE...MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ACCAS
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL
JET POKING UP INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE REGIONAL RADARS ARE
DETECTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACCAS
FIELD...MOST IF NOT ALL OF IT IS VIRGA. AS RETURNS APPROACH/PASS
OVER AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING...TAFS ARE BEING UPDATED TO
REFLECT VICINITY SHOWER AND/OR TEMPO LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITHOUT ANY
REDUCTION IN VFR CIGS/VISBIES.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ABERDEEN SD

351 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

AS THE PERIOD OPENS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS BUILDING OVER THE CWA. THAT SHOULD PROVE TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR A DAY OR TWO...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO CREEP
BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP
FOR A FEW HOURS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

101 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO CIGS...
VSBYS...AND PRECIP CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. IT APPEARS BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AT KGUY AND KDHT THIS EVENING AND HAVE MENTIONED
THE PSBLTY AT THOSE SITES AS WELL AS MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. KEPT
KAMA SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AT THIS TIME.
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...AMENDMENTS WILL BE PSBL LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

ANDRADE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL WORK TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO
FORECAST AREA...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 40 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR
ABOVE REMAIN NO CLOSER THAN AUSTIN. 850 MB DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO QUITE
LOW...WITH 0 DEGREE CELSIUS ISODROSOTHERM ANALYZED BY RUC TO BE EVEN
FARTHER AWAY. ERGO...RICH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PROLONGED THREAT OF
THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ANYTIME SOON...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.

THAT SAID...ADEQUATE FORCING FROM SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT OR MORE BEGINNING THIS MORNING. DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD EASILY CAUSE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS BELOW ANY
SHOWERS.

LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KDHT AND KGUY RESPECTIVELY.
KAMA MAY APPROACH MVFR CEILINGS LATE IN THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP
VFR FORECAST GOING UNTIL HAVE BETTER CERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF SUCH.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WHICH WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE THIS WEEKEND, RAIN OR DUST? AFTER THE
DUST STORMS OF MARCH AND THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL I THINK IT`S SAFE
TO SAY THE ANSWER IS RAIN. WELL WE ARE IN LUCK, A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE PANHANDLES STARTING TODAY. INDICATIONS
REMAIN POSITIVE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
AND IF YOU ARE IN THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES MAYBE EVEN INTO MONDAY MORNING. IF YOU ARE HOPING TO HEAR
SOME THUNDER THEN THE BEST (WHILE STILL PRETTY SLIM) CHANCE WILL BE
SUNDAY AS WE GET WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING AS
THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY EACH DAY.

MONDAY WE WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES. THANKFULLY THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WONT LAST LONG AS TUESDAY LOOKS NICE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THIS COMING
WEEK. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH RELATING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES GIVEN GOOD MIXING. TURNS OUT THIS WAS AN
EXCELLENT APPLICATION OF LOCAL RESEARCH AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEGUN TO TREND UPWARD FOR HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS TOWARDS WHAT THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT ISSUED. I CONTINUED THIS APPLICATION AND THE RESULT
IS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL THE PANHANDLES ON BOTH
DAYS. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE KNOCKING ON 90`S DOOR, SO IT WOULDN`T BE A
SURPRISE IF 90S END UP IN THE FORECAST AS TIME DRAWS NEARER. THERE IS
A SLIGHT SNAG ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY DIPS INTO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE PANHANDLES WHICH WILL LIMIT THE MIXING AND THUS KEEP
TEMPS AROUND 80 FOR THAT AREA.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR HIGHS
WITH MAYBE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

MONDAY...BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT WITH 20-FT NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20
TO 25 MPH.

TUESDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, 20-FT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 15 MPH SO THIS MAY LIMIT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF A GUYMON TO HIGGINS LINE.

THURSDAY...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE WEST OF A GUYMON TO HIGGINS LINE. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO BE OFF SET FROM THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DUE TO A
WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS MAY LIMIT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

657 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL WORK TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO
FORECAST AREA...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 40 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR
ABOVE REMAIN NO CLOSER THAN AUSTIN. 850 MB DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO QUITE
LOW...WITH 0 DEGREE CELSIUS ISODROSOTHERM ANALYZED BY RUC TO BE EVEN
FARTHER AWAY. ERGO...RICH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PROLONGED THREAT OF
THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ANYTIME SOON...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014/

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR HIGHS
WITH MAYBE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF A GUYMON TO HIGGINS LINE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 55 36 59 38 63 / 30 30 30 20 10
BEAVER OK 60 39 57 36 62 / 30 40 40 30 20
BOISE CITY OK 57 35 60 36 61 / 20 40 30 30 20
BORGER TX 58 40 60 41 65 / 30 30 30 20 10
BOYS RANCH TX 61 37 63 39 65 / 20 30 30 20 10
CANYON TX 57 36 61 38 64 / 20 30 30 20 10
CLARENDON TX 57 40 59 42 66 / 30 30 40 20 10
DALHART TX 59 35 60 34 63 / 20 30 30 20 10
GUYMON OK 57 37 61 37 63 / 30 40 30 30 20
HEREFORD TX 59 35 60 37 63 / 20 30 30 20 10
LIPSCOMB TX 57 37 57 40 64 / 30 40 40 30 20
PAMPA TX 56 38 57 38 62 / 30 30 30 30 10
SHAMROCK TX 59 39 57 41 66 / 30 30 40 20 20
WELLINGTON TX 60 42 60 41 68 / 30 30 40 20 20

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

03/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

143 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS MORNING. DECREASED POPS WITH FRONT PUSHING EAST OF COUNTY
WARNING AREA. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING.

AS OF 1130 PM EDT FRIDAY...

PRECIP IS ISOLATED AT BEST FROM THE FAR SW VA COUNTIES ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA. WILL SEE SAME THROUGH 1-2 AM BEFORE EROSION OF
MOISTURE FROM NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT DRIES THINGS OUT. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AS THE FRONT MOVES BY BUT WILL STAY UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS.

TEMPS ARE RUNNING MILDER THAN FORECAST...AND GIVEN A LAG IN COLDER
AIR UPSTREAM BEHIND THE FRONT...RAISED TEMPS THROUGH EARLY
OVERNIGHT. STILL BY MORNING IT SHOULD BE IN 30S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE LOWER 40S ROANOKE...AND UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL ALSO CLEAR SKIES WITH LINGERING
UPSLOPE OVER THE WV MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON...

MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM OHIO TO LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
LOCAL MODELS BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 5PM. HRRR GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS AROUND 300 J/KG AT 19Z/3PM.

SURFACE AND 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 850 MB WINDS ARE INITIALLY IN THE 40
TO 50 KNOT RANGE BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO 15 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. DEW POINTS LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY
MIDNIGHT WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE
DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS HAD PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 10 MB IN 6 HOURS THROUGH 12Z/8AM
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS BUT EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 229 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND MILD AND DRY. FOLLOWING A COOL START WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
PEAKING NEAR NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
CLOSED LOW...WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP GENERATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY...RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE WITH GULF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND OVER LINGERING
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING
INSITU WEDGE WILL KEEP MONDAY WET AND GLOOMY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND INSITU WEDGE EASTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AREAS TO
THE FAR WEST WILL HAVE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN BUT COULD SEE THE BULK
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS FROM THE LOW TRACKING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WEST WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50
OF AN INCH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRESSURE FALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WOULD SUGGEST WEDGE WILL ERODE BY MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY REDUCE THESE PRESSURE FALL AND KEEP THE WEDGE
OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS WEDGE REMAINS...LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING.

CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR RAIN ENTERING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
HANGING ON ALL DAY MONDAY. POPS CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST AS BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY EXITS EAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT FRIDAY...

MODELS ARE NOT GIVING UP ON WINTER JUST YET. THEY ARE BRINGING
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF INTO A CLOSED
LOW...ACROSS THE GULF STATES TUESDAY THEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR A COLD RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECM KEEPS BULK...IF NOT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND THEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS HAPPENS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE WITH
IT...WITH A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID
COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT WEDNESDAY...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE P-TYPE. RIGHT
NOW...TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARY LAYER ARE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ARE REDUCED TO WESTERN SLOPES FOLLOWING
THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZES...DRIZZLE- PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
THE LIKELY P-TYPE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE
A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS
ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 142 AM EDT SATURDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SCT TO BKN
MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THE TAF SITE
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IS BLF. CIGS WILL BE VFR
EAST OF THE UPSLOPE SE WV MTNS.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING AND WILL START TO TAPER
OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS...CEILING AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

THIS HIGH SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING MOVES NORTH INTO THE TN
VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY...SPREADING RAIN AND LOWER CIGS BACK
INTO THE AREA.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...KK/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

646 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS ON THE BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. 06.21Z RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS AREA IS IN THE BELT OF HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000J/KG IN THIS REGION. THIS
AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS A LITTLE BETTER SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS THANKS TO AN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH. THE 06.21Z HRRR IS IN LINE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND
SHOWS IT MAINLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD ALONG THE CONVERGENCE IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEAKENING AS IT REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN.
AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS AS WELL. FREEZING LEVELS
ARE FAIRLY LOW AT 6-7KFT ALONG WITH DONOVAN HEIGHTS ONLY BEING
AROUND 17KFT...BUT THINK THAT LACK OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL KEEP
ANY UPDRAFTS FROM BEING SUSTAINED. ONE COCORAHS REPORT OF PEA
SIZED HAIL NEAR ELLENDALE MN ALREADY AND THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE
EXTENT OF HOW HIGH THE HAIL GETS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

FORECAST CONCERN IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NEAR DETROIT AND LOW
PRESSURE FROM MN TO NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO
LEADING TO CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS IA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN WHERE MOST UNSTABLE AIR SEEN JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUD SHIELD HAS BEEN ALL DAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN ND AND WILL HELP TO DRIVE THE LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE A
LARGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

MAIN CONCERN IS RAIN CHANCES WITH THESE FEATURES. LOOKING LIKE THE
INITIAL CLOUD BAND AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN OR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WANE FOR A TIME...BUT INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE WAVE AND FRONT MOVE IN...AIDED BY DEFORMATION ON THE
NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

LOOKING LIKE A MORE MILD OR NORMAL APRIL TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL
TAKE HOLD THIS WEEK. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING FOR A
FEW DAYS AND WEAK TROUGHING FOR A FEW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TUE/WED...AND INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING
THIS SYSTEM POSES PROBABLY THE BIGGEST DILEMMA OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED THE FRONT WOULD HANG UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. BUT LATER SOLUTIONS NOW POINTING TO SOME
WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND THE FIRST ONE...
RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PUSH WITH A MORE TRANSIENT
RAIN EVENT. GFS HAD LATCHED ONTO THIS ALREADY WITH ITS 06Z
RUN...AND 12Z CONTINUED. LATEST 12Z ECMWF NOW ALSO ON BOARD WITH
THIS. WITH MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON A SOLUTION...
DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. FOR NOW WAS CONSERVATIVE
WITH CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUT MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE MAIN BATCH OF STORMS GOING FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE STORMS SHOULD MAINLY
GO NORTH OF RST...SO TOOK OUT THE TEMPO GROUP AND LEFT IT AS VCTS.
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR THOUGH MOST OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
BEEN MISSING THE AIRPORTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THINK THAT
SOME MVFR...MAYBE SOME IFR...IS POSSIBLE WHEN THIS CONVECTION
REACHES RST. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
TONIGHT BUT WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
LINGERING...THINKING THAT THE FOG WILL NOT OCCUR AT RST/LSE. IF
SOME RAIN DOES OCCUR AT EITHER SITE AND SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT...THEN IT WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL COME
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1216 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

WITH THE SNOW/RAIN OF YESTERDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FAIRLY
MOIST. RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD KEEP A FEW HUNDRED FOOT SATURATED LAYER
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOSTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS WESTERN MN...AND IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG...BUT NOT
SEEING MUCH PER LATEST SFC OBS. GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG. WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...AREAS ROAD COULD DEVELOP ICY SPOTS
IF THE THICK FOG DOES MANIFEST.

SOME HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
COULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MEAGER 850-700 MB QG
CONVERGENCE WITH IT...AND SOME 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. BOTH
ARE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN WI. SATURATION ISN/T IMPRESSIVE PER
RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL. BUT THERE
WOULD SEEM TO BE ENOUGH FOR THE WEAK FORCING TO WORK ON THAT SOME
SMALL CHANCES ARE STILL WARRANTED ACROSS THE NORTH. NOTHING IS
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH THERE THAT IT CAN/T BE COMPLETELY IGNORED
EITHER.

SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC LIFT
COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL
SATURATION. AGAIN - NOT IMPRESSIVE - BUT ENOUGH THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN
COULD DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING A 500 MB TROUGH FROM
THE WEST COAST...ACROSS THE PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING IT A BIT AS IT
LIFTS OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z TUE. THE SFC LOW FOLLOWS THE
SAME TRACK...WHICH WOULD KEEP ITS NORTH/NORTHWEST HANGING
DEFORMATION REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID -
MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ASIDE FROM THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE
FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. TIMING/POSITIONING OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW IS PROBLEMATIC TO SAY THE LEAST...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BROADBRUSHING LOW END PCPN CHANCES FOR THE MON-TUE
TIME PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO A ZONAL/RIDGING PATTERN BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. ECMWF 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY AROUND +1.
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS
FOR A CHANGE - HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S CLIMATOLOGICALLY. NOT LOOKING AT
70 YET...BUT A FEW DAYS AROUND 60 LOOK PROBABLE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
AMPLE SUNSHINE. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DECOUPLE FOR A TIME NEAR SUNSET.
BUT THEN MIXING INCREASES SO EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT. WITH MELTING SNOW TODAY...SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. UNDER LIGHTER WINDS WOULD EXPECT FOG/MIST
COULD BE AN ISSUE...BUT WITH THIS MIXING DO NOT THINK IT WILL
MANIFEST. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI TONIGHT
INTO SUN LOOKS TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. NAM/RAP SUGGEST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. BUT PERUSAL OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB SO
HAVE DOUBTS MUCH IF ANY WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. LEFT TAF
FORECASTS DRY...AT MOST FEEL IT WOULD ONLY BE SPRINKLES.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...MW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

636 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
AN 8 TO 10K DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
06.00Z AND 06.03Z. THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

240 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON WHETHER ANY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS ARE STARTING TO
DECREASE AND SKIES HAVE GONE CLEAR...SO IT IS A MATTER OF HOW MUCH
SURFACE MOISTURE IS OUT THERE FROM THE SNOW THAT FELL AND MELTED ON
FRIDAY. SHOULD FOG DEVELOP...IT WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING
DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR TO PUT IT DOWN THAT FAR. HAVE KEPT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS IN THERE CENTERED ON THE 10-15Z TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE A MID
LEVEL DECK COMES IN SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM
BEING LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

417 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...A 110KT H30-H20 JET DIGGING ACRS THE CENTRAL/NRN
ROCKIES HAS FORCED THE SRN BRANCH OF THE H30-H20 JET STREAM ALONG
THE NW GULF COAST TO SHIFT FROM A ZONAL TO TO A LIFTING ORIENTATION
BTWN THE RIO GRANDE/LWR MS VALLEYS. THE SRN JET STREAK WILL FEED THE
DVLPMNT OF A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WHICH IN TURN WILL
PROVIDE THE IMPETUS TO CRANK A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS THE
GOMEX TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA.

UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE NRN JET STREAK IS PLENTIFUL WITH THE 120KT
ISOTACH EXTENDING WELL INTO THE NE PAC. AS THIS ENERGY SPILLS DOWN
ACRS THE PLAINS STATES...THE JET PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY...STRENGTHENING TO A 140-150KT MAX OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIAN OVERNIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE STORM
SYSTEM TO DVLP INTO A RESPECTABLE 990MB LOW AS IT LIFTS ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY DAYBREAK TUE.

WHILE THE 00Z RAOBS INDICATE PWAT VALUES HAVE CLIMBED AOA 1.0" ACRS
THE PENINSULA...MOST OF THIS IS LOCATED ABV H50 AS SUBSTANTIAL DRY
AIR REMAINS IN THE H85-H50 LYR. FURTHERMORE...OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES
LITTLE IF ANY ORGANIZED MID LVL SUPPORT EITHER THE H85-H50 OR THE
H85-H30 VORTICITY/OMEGA FIELDS. LAPSE RATES FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN...REMAINING BLO 6C/KM OVER THE ERN GOMEX BEFORE DEEPENING TO
AOA 7C/KM OVER THE WRN GOMEX.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PULLED BACK SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT/SQUALL LINE INDICATED BY PREVIOUS RUNS...DELAYING IT UNTIL AFT
12Z TUE. THE LCL WRF MODEL DELAYS ONSET OF PRECIP ACRS THE CWA UNTIL
AFT 21Z THIS AFTN...AND EVEN THEN LIMITS IT TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES
ONCE THE SEABREEZE/LAND BREEZE INTERACTION BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE LACK OF MID LVL SUPPORT. FURTHERMORE...AS HAS BEEN
MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION...A DENSE FIELD OF MID/UPR LVL
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PRECEDE THE FROPA/SQUALL LINE THAT WILL HAMPER
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.

GIVEN THE ABV PARAMETERS...PRECIP NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTN. FCST WILL BE DRY THRU 21Z...THEN WILL INTRODUCE SLGT CHC OF
TSRAS OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES...CHC SHRAS/SLGT CHC TSRAS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LCL SFC CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY
THE SEABREEZE/LANDBREEZE COUPLET. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSRAS
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT BY THEN
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE HAMPERED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE DEEP AND STEADY S/SWRLY FLOW WILL PUSH AFTN TEMPS INTO THE
U80S/L90S W OF I-95...OCEAN MODIFICATION SHOULD KEEP READING IN THE
M80S ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED SRLY FLOW
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE U60S/L70S INTERIOR...L/M70S
ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY SRLY WINDS AREAWIDE TODAY WITH FQNT GUSTS
ABV 20MPH....WILL HOIST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY BTWN 15Z-00Z.

TUE/TUE NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST TUE MORNING. A 140 KT JET AT
250 MB WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS FL. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN
850 MB JET OF 45-50 KNOTS AND BAND OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
SUPPORT AN ADVANCING SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH FL S/SW INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT FIRST LIGHT. THIS LINE SHOULD REACH
NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND PUSH
SOUTH OF MARTIN COUNTY EARLY TUE EVE. WHILE WIND FIELDS AND
HELICITY VALUES ARE RESPECTABLE...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...AND RIBBON OF STRONG PVA LAGS LOW
LEVEL JET.

WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS TUESDAY EXCEPT CHANCE POPS
MARTIN/SAINT LUCIE. GREATEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG...TO PERHAPS DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...HOWEVER THREAT APPEARS
VERY LOW AT BEST. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW ONE INCH...AVERAGING 0.25-0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LESS THAN 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH.

EARLY ONSET OF CLOUDS/PRECIP LIKELY TO LIMIT MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S NORTH. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOUTHERN SECTIONS (SOUTH OF
ORLANDO) COULD REACH THE MID 80S IN ADVANCE OF PRECIP SHIELD.
THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION BEGINS TUE NIGHT AS
FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASS...REACHING 50S ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL FA BY DAYBREAK WED...HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
TREASURE COAST.

WED-SUN...MAINLY DRY INTO LATE WEEK. POST FRONTAL COOL AIRMASS
WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
4 AND HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S FARTHER SOUTH. ONE MORE COOL
NIGHT WED...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.

SEASONABLE WX CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AS A STRONG POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ALLOWING AN ONSHORE
FLOW TO DEVELOP. MAX/MIN TEMPS ON THU WILL RECOVER TO WITHIN 5 DEG
OF NORMAL AND HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN
MODERATE TO SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLD COASTAL SHRAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST
JUST YET.

.AVIATION...
VFR ALL SITES UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED. BTWN 07/14Z-07/24Z...S/SW SFC
WNDS 15-20KTS WITH G23-28KTS. BTWN 07/20Z-07/24...CIGS BTWN
FL060-080 WITH VCSH ALL SITES. AFT 08/00Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC
IFR TSRAS ALL SITES.

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...STORM SYSTEM DVLPG OVER THE LWR MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS
WILL RIDE UP THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W
ATLC...LIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY SUNSET THEN ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
GENERATE A MODERATE TO FRESH SRLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC...WHICH
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SW OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM DRAGS A
COLD FRONT ACRS THE ERN GOMEX...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE FL
STRAITS. THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SEAS WITH
DOMINANT PD FALLING TO AOB 6SEC. CHC OF TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE BY LATE
AFTN...CONTG OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE SCA AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL HOLD OFF PULLING THE TRIGGER JUST YET AS THE
FCST SFC PGRAD DOES NOT TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FULL SCA UNTIL
AFT SUNSET THIS EVNG.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. SW FLOW AROUND 20
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND FRONT
DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE 20-25 KNOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT PUSH SE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. SEAS
RANGING FROM 3-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE.

WED-WED NIGHT...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH.
W/NW WINDS 20 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING
AND DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL DIRECTLY OPPOSE THE WARM GULF
STEAM CURRENT AND PRODUCE VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. SEAS 3-5FT
NEARSHORE AND UP TO 7FT OFFSHORE TO START THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO
2-4FT NEARSHORE OVERNIGHT.

THU-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE W ATLANTIC AND GENERATE A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE THU...VEERING TO E BY SUNSET. THIS
ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE A LITTLE STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS...AROUND 15 KNOTS...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE UP TO 5
FT SEAS...3-4 FT ELSEWHERE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH FALLING BELOW 35 PERCENT IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WED...WITH
NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMOUNT OF RAIN WETTING
TUE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING BECOMES
NECESSARY. NEAR THRESHOLD MIN RH AGAIN THU AFTERNOON INLAND...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN FRI FAR INLAND...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 84 68 78 57 / 40 50 70 30
MCO 89 69 81 60 / 20 50 70 20
MLB 86 71 86 60 / 30 40 70 30
VRB 86 72 86 63 / 30 40 60 30
LEE 88 68 78 57 / 20 50 80 20
SFB 89 69 81 58 / 20 50 70 20
ORL 89 69 81 60 / 20 50 70 20
FPR 86 73 86 65 / 30 30 50 30

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FL FROM 11 AM TO 8
PM TODAY.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....KELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

330 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
ONE MORE DAY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND THEN RAIN CHANCES
BRIEFLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND
SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A MAJOR MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE
ONLY AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOR AN INCREASING WIND
AND VEERING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE
SURFACE TO REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH PWAT AT JUST OVER AN INCH WITH
VERY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IN THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT IS A
STRETCH AND THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY DEVELOPMENT AT ALL
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SO PLAN FOR NOW TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH IN THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A MAJOR TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES.
THIS WILL AID IN THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT IS LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS ALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL
BE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
CONVERGENCE COULD MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
MOST LIKELY TO BE A THREAT FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DURING THE EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 06Z TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON REMAINING IN THE
70S ALONG WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE COOLEST AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL BE
QUITE PLEASANT FOR EARLY APRIL. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RAPIDLY
SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND MODERATING
THE ATMOSHPERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE STALLED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING THIS
BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANQUIL THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO OVER 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO
8 FEET BOTH IN THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS
VEER TO THE EAST.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON FALLING BELOW 35 PERCENT. THE 20-FOOT WINDS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 15 MPH AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, ERC VALUES HAVE BEEN LOW AND ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 27 THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL
BEAR WATCHING AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE EXCEEDED ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IF CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 74 87 62 / 10 20 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 77 88 66 / 10 20 30 40
MIAMI 84 76 87 66 / 10 20 30 40
NAPLES 84 74 81 65 / 10 10 50 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

547 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE FIRST PERIOD ON TAP WITH DEEPENING GULF LOW SET TO TRACK
RAPIDLY NEWD WITH AID OF POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGING NEGATIVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY MIDDAY. LINGERING CAD WEDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS NE GA THAT HAS MAINLY SERVED TO STABILIZE THE AREA
AND ALLOW FOR ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. HAVE RECENTLY OBSERVED
DISCRETE CELL TRENDS WITH GOOD ROTATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS IS PROGGED TO BECOME THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. SYSTEM HAS
OVERALL HAD A QUICKER TREND WITH THE MAIN PRECIP EVOLUTION. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS AN INTERESTING SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...BUT THE WRF-NMM
AND HRRR HAVE APPEARED TO VERIFY THE BEST NEAR ONSET SO HAVE TRENDED
POPS CLOSE TO THESE. THIS IN TURN BRINGS A LINE OF EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD MAINLY SOUTH OF ATLANTA
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER 12Z. THE CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY
STRONG WINDS FROM ANY CELLS TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM DOWN FROM THE 50
KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ANY LEADING DISCRETE
CELLS/MERGERS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LINGERING WEDGE FRONT.

THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH NEARLY 40 KTS OF 0-1
BULK...AND PROGGED 200-400 0-1 KM HELICITY FOR CENTRAL GA TODAY WITH
OF COURSE HIGHER VALUES IN THE MORE STABLE WEDGED NE PORTION OF THE
STATE. SREF SIG TOR PARAMETER OF 1-2 NOSES UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION TODAY AS WELL. MAIN SEVERE/TOR THREAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LAGRANGE TO MONTICELLO TO WASHINGTON LINE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

FLOOD CONCERN CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCH AREA BUT THE
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST THOUGH COULD STILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED EFFECTS. PWATS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF LOCAL
CLIMO STILL SUPPORT HIGHLY EFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE AND TRAINING OF
CELLS TODAY WILL RAISE FLASH FLOOD OR AREAL FLOOD CONCERNS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF AREA WILL BRING A COLD POOL ALOFT
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT
THUNDER POTENTIAL MAINLY IN NORTH GA FOR AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN IN THE NORTH TODAY GIVEN THE RESULT FROM
YESTERDAY AND WEDGE MOISTURE OVERRUN. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE
RISK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STRONG AS THE COLD
CORE MOVES OVER THE CWA AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
TSTORMS. THE RISK OF THUNDER SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR LOWS...THEN THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BRINGING A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA WILL BE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PRECIP. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
INITIAL IFR TO NEAR LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH SOME MVFR IMPROVEMENT AFTER ABOUT 18Z-20Z. RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH MVFR VSBYS CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z-
22Z ALSO WITH BEST -TSRA CHANCES NEAR THE 15Z-19Z PERIOD SO HAVE
KEPT PROB30 GROUP. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS.
OTHERWISE ENHANCED WINDS OUT OF EAST TO SE 12-14 KTS GUSTING 20-25
KTS SWINGING SW NEAR KATL AFTER ABOUT 18Z. POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AGAIN
NEAR END OF FORECAST PERIOD BUT STILL DECENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON CIGS...VSBYS...AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

BAKER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 48 67 45 / 100 50 20 40
ATLANTA 68 48 65 48 / 100 40 40 50
BLAIRSVILLE 60 42 62 42 / 100 40 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 66 45 64 45 / 100 40 40 50
COLUMBUS 71 50 67 46 / 100 40 20 40
GAINESVILLE 61 47 64 48 / 100 40 40 50
MACON 72 51 69 45 / 100 50 20 40
ROME 66 44 65 45 / 100 20 40 50
PEACHTREE CITY 69 46 66 42 / 100 40 30 40
VIDALIA 76 57 70 51 / 100 70 30 30

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WEBSTER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS CHARLESTON SC

444 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT
MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL IN A WEAK WEDGED PATTERN WITH
SIGNS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA
STARTING TO LIFT NORTH. EXTENSIVE STRATUS CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF
MAINLY LIGHT FOG BLANKETING THE REGION PER LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN AND
THERE IS A WINDOW FOR SOME DENSE FOG INLAND FROM I-95 BUT WE WERE
COVERING WITH ENHANCED AREAS OF FOG AT THIS TIME.

NEARING DAYBREAK...RAPIDLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS WILL BEGIN
TO TRANSLATE THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD BUT WE BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY
JUST A TAD BIT FAST PRIOR TO MID MORNING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
BASED STABILITY NOTED ON LATEST MESOANALYSIS.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE EASTERN
PROGRESSION OF A ROBUST SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. QUITE A FEW FACTORS POINT TOWARD POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY.
WE HAVE BECOME GRADUALLY MORE IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FIRST OFF
THIS MORNING...WE THINK MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE.
BY LATE MORNING SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS A POTENT SW LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTS WARM AND MOISTURE
AIR NE AHEAD OF A STEADILY BACKING UPPER FLOW.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BROKEN TO SOLID LINEAR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE PATTERN MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE FUELED BY STRONG UPPER FORCING AND IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DEEP LAYERED CIN WHICH IS PROGGED TO ERODE AS THE DYNAMIC
WARM SECTOR EVOLVES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS
INCLUDE RAPID STABILIZATION SEEN ON MANY OF THE MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...0-4 KM BULK SHEAR REACHING 50 KT LATE DAY AND VERY
FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE. WE
ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IF TRENDS ON
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND ARW-EAST PERSIST. WE WILL
WAIT UNTIL MORNING SOUNDING ANALYSIS BEFORE COMMITTING TO SEVERE
WORDING IN OUR ACTUAL FORECAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS AFTER LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO
LIFT AND BECOME BROKEN...THE WARM SECTOR MAY BECOME CLEAN ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS...ESPECIALLY IN SE GEORGIA
WHERE THE LATEST RAP MODEL PROG HINTS AT SB CAPES POSSIBLY IN THE
1500 J/KG RANGE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO DAMAGING WINDS
BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON TAKING
SHAPE PRIOR TO ANY CONVECTIVE RAINS. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH ON AREA BRIDGES. TOO MANY POTENTIAL
COMPLEXITIES TO ISSUE A LOCALIZED WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT
CANNOT RULE STRONGER GUSTS IF IT GETS WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT...A SMALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BUT EXPECT LOWER LEVELS MAY BE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY THE
INITIAL CONVECTION AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS.

VERY HIGH PWATS SUGGEST WE WILL SEE SOME BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH A BIT OF TRAINING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT POTENTIALLY CREATING
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND PUSHING OFFSHORE
AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWERING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AND WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING BACK IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS EVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL WITH THE SHOWERS
AS THE MID-LEVELS RAPIDLY COOL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK TO NEAR 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...COOL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SC COAST TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPEL GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING/WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
COULD TEMPS DOWN NEAR 40 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE CAUSING A SLIGHTLY
WARMER ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WILL BE ON TAP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL. NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING INCLUSIONS OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET RAPIDLY BUILDS NEAR DAYBREAK.

IFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BUILDS OVER A STABLE AND COOLER SURFACE
LAYER. WE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH STRATUS BUILDING DOWN AND
POTENTIALLY SOME FOG AT KSAV LATER TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
SHIFT TO THE N ALLOWING WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO INTERACT
WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AT
KCHS FROM 17Z-20Z. LATEST MODELS SHIFT CONVECTIVE PCPN INTO THE
COASTAL CORRIDOR BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. LEADING EDGE CONVECTION MAY
LOCALLY PRODUCE LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FINAL 6 HOURS OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE. TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...LATER SHIFT CAN REFINE TIMING WINDOWS
AND TAF INCLUSIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. LOW CHANCE THAT LOW CIGS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE THEY
WILL OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BREEZY CONDS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR WED-SAT.

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GIVEN MARINE STABILITY FACTORS
AND LATEST TRENDS FROM SURFACE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHT OBSERVATIONS.
A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE SPEEDS ONLY
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT. SEAS
BUILDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN OUR
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BY MID MORNING TODAY. TONIGHT...STRONGEST
FLOW OVER WARMER WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SEAS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM AT 6-7 FT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PLAY
HAVOC WITH WINDS AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
FOR MOST WATERS DURING THIS TIME. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP
LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

442 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL IN A WEAK WEDGED PATTERN WITH
SIGNS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA
STARTING TO LIFT NORTH. EXTENSIVE STRATUS CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF
MAINLY LIGHT FOG BLANKETING THE REGION PER LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... THE STRATUS CONTINUED TO BUILD DOWN AND
THERE IS A WINDOW FOR SOME DENSE FOG INLAND FROM I-95 BUT WE WERE
COVERING WITH ENHANCED AREAS OF FOG AT THIS TIME.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BROKEN TO SOLID LINEAR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE PATTERN MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST FROM EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL
BE FUELED BY STRONG UPPER FORCING AND IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP LAYERED CIN WHICH IS PROGGED TO ERODE AS
THE DYNAMIC WARM SECTOR EVOLVES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS INCLUDE RAPID STABILIZATION SEEN ON MANY OF
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...0-4 KM BULK SHEAR REACHING 50 KT LATE
DAY AND FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE.
WE ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IF TRENDS
ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND ARW-EAST PERSIST. WE
WILL WAIT UNTIL MORNING SOUNDING ANALYSIS BEFORE COMMITTING TO
SEVERE WORDING IN OUR ACTUAL FORECAST.

TONIGHT...A SMALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BUT EXPECT LOWER LEVELS MAY BE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY THE
INITIAL CONVECTION AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS.

VERY HIGH PWATS SUGGEST WE WILL SEE SOME BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH A BIT OF TRAINING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT POTENTIALLY CREATING
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE CAUSING A SLIGHTLY
WARMER ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COAST.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING INCLUSIONS OF LLWS THIS MORNING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET RAPIDLY BUILDS NEAR DAYBREAK.

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

232 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

A -28c to -30c 500mb upper level trough, which was located over
eastern Montana earlier this morning, will quickly move southeast
and by 18z begin to cross western Kansas. Mid level instability will
improved during the afternoon as this upper level disturbance
crosses western Kansas and based on the expected moisture forecast
in the 850mb to 600mb level between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday
there will be a chance for a rain showers and even an a few
thunderstorms. Main hazard should any thunder develop will be
cloud to ground lightning.

Gusty northwest winds can also be expected today as 30kt to 40kt
winds located in the 900mb to 850mb level mixdown to the surface,
mainly west of highway 283. Base on these expected winds mixing
down to the surface it appears the surface winds will increase to
near wind advisory criteria. Some locations may even reach 30mph
for a few hours between 18z and 21z. Based highs today on the
mixed layer depth which will be at or slightly above the 800mb
level. This supports highs today in the upper 50s to lower 60s for
all but west central Kansas. from Garden City and areas west and
northwest increasing clouds due to the approaching upper level
trough and cooler 850mb to 700mb temperatures suggest highs will
be mainly in the mid 50s.

Wind speeds will decrease and back more to the west after sunset
and skies will clear. Based on a westerly flow of near 10kts will
trend towards slightly higher overnight lows than what the latest
guidance suggests.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

Medium range models indicate an amplified upper level ridge of high
pressure breaking down as it moves across the Intermountain West
into the Western High Plains mid week resulting in drier conditions
across western Kansas through at least Wednesday night. Meanwhile,
an upper level shortwave trough is projected to push ashore into the
Pacific Northwest Wednesday and move quickly across the Northern
Rockies into the Northern Plains late Wednesday night. An
attendant cold front is forecast to push southeastward through
western Kansas sometime Thursday. However, a dry frontal passage
is expected due to a real lack of moisture in the low/mid levels
as indicated by GFS/ECMWF model soundings.

Temperatures will be near normal Tuesday as upper level ridging
begins to edge eastward into the Western High Plains. Although
surface high pressure across the Rockies will help influence a
north-northwesterly flow across western Kansas through much of
the day, some downsloping will help warm temperatures across the
area. The GFS/ECMWF show H85 temperatures climbing from the day
previous with values of around 10C across central Kansas to near
15C along the Colorado border. With plenty of sunshine likely,
look for highs well up into the 60s(F) Tuesday afternoon with near
70F possible in far southwest Kansas. A developing lee side trough
across eastern Colorado Tuesday night will quickly flip winds back
to the south-southwest Wednesday, tapping into a warmer air mass to
our south and bringing H85 temperatures in excess of 20C into all
of southwest Kansas and portions of central Kansas. Widespread
80s(F) are likely Wednesday afternoon as lower level lapse rates
steepen. The warming trend comes to an end Thursday as a cold front
pushes through western Kansas dropping temperatures back down to
near seasonal levels.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

Radar trends supporting the latest HRRR in weakening an area of
light rain showers as they cross western Kansas earlier this
evening. This precipitation was associated with an area of low
level forcing near a surface boundary which at 03z appears to
extend from north east central Nebraska into the panhandle of
Texas. Light north wind immediately behind this boundary will
increase into the 15 to 20kt range between 12z and 15z. North to
northwest winds will then continue to increase through the early
afternoon with sustained winds of near 25kts likely between 18z
Monday and 00z Tuesday. NAM BUFR soundings indicating VFR
conditions tonight and Monday. Mid level instability will improve
after 18z as a -28c 500mb trough crosses western Kansas. Moisture
in the 3000ft to 8000ft AGL can be expected under this cool pool
so an increase in low VFR ceilings will be likely Monday
afternoon.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 33 70 41 / 30 10 0 0
GCK 58 32 71 39 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 57 34 71 41 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 59 34 71 39 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 61 35 68 40 / 40 10 0 0
P28 65 35 68 40 / 40 10 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

158 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

Monday night/Tuesday:

Showers/isolated thunderstorms are not expected after 00Z as this activity
will be diurnally driven. For Tuesday, northerly upper level flow is
expected in the wake of passing synoptic trof. At the surface, a light
downslope northwesterly wind is expected. The GFS is the coldest of
the solutions, but given the aforementioned downslope flow and associated
mixing to about 700 hPa... feel that maximum temperatures around 70F
seem reasonable (ergo, the GFS is too cold). The official forecast is
close to ECE guidance. Minimum rh`s and winds do not look close to red
flag criteria. Minimums will be around 40F as winds eventually veer
southerly by evening as weak lee troughing develops across the western
High Plains.

Wednesday and beyond:

Wednesday is expected to be a toasty day a lee troughing continues and
an 850 hPa warm plume advects farther east across the forecast area
of responsibility. The NAM is coming around to the ECMWF solution for
sfc temperatures, and therefore have maximum values in the 80sF. Models
are showing ideal conditions for a warm day with downslope southwesterly
winds and 850 hPa temperatures in the 20sC. Rh`s will be lower, but
winds do not look to be at criteria for 3 hours at this time... still
something to watch as there could be elevated fire wx conditions during
Wednesday afternoon.

Beyond Wednesday, fairly warm Spring-like temperatures are expected.
Attention then turns to next weekend as the next synoptic wave approaches
from the west. This system will have moisture to work with as sfc dewpoints
increase ahead in the warm sector. The ECMWF shows a wintry mix possible
(mainly across NW Kansas with todays deterministic run), but this is
something to watch. Since this is way out in the extended, will keep with
thunderstorms in the warm sector and then showers post-frontal. The
GFS is not nearly as cold as the EC solution.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 61 32 70 41 / 20 10 0 0
GCK 59 31 71 39 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 57 33 71 41 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 59 33 71 39 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 61 34 70 40 / 20 10 0 0
P28 65 34 70 40 / 20 10 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1210 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

At 00z Monday an upper level ridge axis was located along the west
coast with a +100kt 250mb jet streak extending from the top of
this ridge axis in northern British Columbia to central Montana. A
-28C to -30C 500mb thermal trough was located in the left exit
region of this upper level jet. Further downstream a 500mb trough
was located from the Texas panhandle into Nebraska. A surface and
850mb trough, area of confluent flow and moisture, extended from
southeast Colorado into south central Nebraska. This related well
with an area of enhanced precipitation and even a few lightning
strikes earlier this evening.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

The main forecast challenges are slight chances for rain showers
tonight, then again on Monday afternoon, and strong winds with a
cold front on Monday.

The upper low and trough that brought areas of light rain to much of
southwest Kansas this morning will continue to move south and east
of the area tonight. Some light rain showers may redevelop later
this afternoon before ending this evening ahead of a cold front and
trough line.

Another upper level wave on the backside of the upper trough will
move across western Kansas on Monday bringing another chance for
some light rain showers, but much of the moisture will remain over
parts of south central Kansas with the best chances for measurable
rainfall from Wakeeney to Coldwater and east. Models forecast only
minimal instability so widespread thunder is not expected. An
associated cold front will move across western Kansas late tonight
with winds shifting from light and variable to the northwest at 10
to 20 mph. Winds pickup by late morning into the afternoon on Monday
to 25 to 35 mph and gusty as deeper mixing ensues in back of the
cold front. These winds will be close to wind advisory criteria. As
the shortwave moves east into south central Kansas in the afternoon,
skies will clear from west to east in back of this wave.

Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 30s, with slightly warmer
lows in parts of south central Kansas in the low to mid 40s. Highs
on Monday look to be in the upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

Monday night/Tuesday:

Wednesday and beyond:

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 70 41 84 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 30 71 39 81 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 33 71 41 82 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 31 71 39 84 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 33 70 40 82 / 10 0 0 0
P28 35 70 40 84 / 10 0 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

459 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING OVER WRN
NAMERICA AND A TROF DEEPENING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. FLOW IN THE TROF
IS SPLIT WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE SRN STREAM OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. FARTHER N...A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS FARTHER N
OVER WRN MN. SHRA ARE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE ACROSS MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME...ISENTROPIC ASCENT LINGERING OVER THE ERN
FCST AREA HAS PRODUCED A FEW SHRA OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES HAVE
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

SHORTWAVE OVER MN IS FCST TO WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING INTO THE UPPER
LAKES TODAY AS IT WILL BECOME SITUATED BTWN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING
SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTING FROM THE
SRN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR SOME -SHRA
TODAY. -SHRA POTENTIAL WILL BE AIDED BY DEVELOPMENT OF A LITTLE BIT
OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...LINGERING STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE AREA...AND DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
PAINTED SCHC POPS MAINLY OVER ROUGHLY THE INTERIOR W HALF AHEAD OF
INLAND MOVING LAKE BREEZE. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
AIR MASS OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE WILL BRING
COOLING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN.

CAA GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT UNDER DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF. A FEW
-SHRA MAY LINGER THIS EVENING OVER THE SCNTRL...THEN ATTENTION TURNS
TO STRENGTHENING N TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NRN UPPER MI...LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND -DZ/-FZDZ AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
DEPARTS. THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IS WHAT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE
WILL LOOK LIKE. THE GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT LOOKS MUCH OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM SOUNDING AT
CYQD. THE NAM HAS BEEN BACKING OFF...BUT IT STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TONIGHT. GIVEN NAM/GFS TENDENCY TO OVERFORECAST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SPRING...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER -DZ/-FZDZ WILL DEVELOP. IF SFC DWPTS HAPPEN TO RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...THEN THE INCREASED
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF CHILLY MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO LEAD TO STRATUS/-FZDZ DEVELOPMENT AS THE CHILLY AIR
UPSLOPES INTO A HIGHER DWPT AIR MASS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME -DZ/-FZDZ IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
N LATER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A 987MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NEW YORK.
BOTH OF THESE SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEFORE THIS RIDGE MOVES
IN...THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE PRODUCING SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND POTENTIALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW SHOWERS. STILL SEEING
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS
AND THE GEM/ECMWF. ALSO...THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER (3-5C) AT
925/850MB. LIKE YESTERDAY...WONDERING HOW MUCH OF THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRUE...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z CYQD SOUNDING
WITH THE INITIAL CONDITIONS ON THE GFS. IT IS REALLY STRUGGLING
BELOW 900MB...WITH WAY TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER (LIKELY DUE
TO MELTING SNOW). SATELLITE CONFIRMS IT ISN/T ISOLATED TO THAT
LOCATION...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THAT AREA. THINK
ODDS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION...SO WILL TRY TO ADJUST
POPS FOR JUST THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY WARM IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO
WOULDN/T EXPECT ANY OF THE POTENTIAL CLOUDS TO BE IN THE ICE
CRYSTAL REGION AND WILL MAINLY GO WITH A DZ/FZDZ PRECIP TYPE
DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE ARRIVES...DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH IN (IF THE LLVL MOISTURE ACTUALLY OCCURS) AND LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO A COOLER DAY OVER MUCH OF THE U.P. COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE
(UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40) AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS
IN...EXPECT SOME MID CLOUDS TO PUSH OVER THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INITIAL PUSH OF WARM AIR OCCURS.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE MID
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR (WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE).
THE WARM AIR SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND BREEZY (GUSTS 15-25KTS) DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS INDICATING MIXING POSSIBLY REACHING 850MB OVER WEST/CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN...WHICH AT VALUES OF 3-7C...WOULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS INTO THE 60S. RAW MODEL DATA FROM NAM/GFS STILL
APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH SNOW DEPTH (SHOWING LITTLE TO NO SNOW
OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN)...BUT IT DOES HAVE 12-20 INCHES OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THAT TRIES TO COOL THE DOWNSTREAM AREAS WITH
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS. BASED OFF HOW WARM IT WAS TODAY...THINK
WARMING TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO GET VALUES INTO THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE WEST IS REASONABLE. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE EAST
DUE TO THE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LEADING TO THE WARM AIR SURGING INTO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF
50-200J/KG...SO THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE
SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA. OVERALL...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT (UNDER 0.15IN) ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST IF STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP
AND ALSO OVER THE FAR EAST WHERE IT WILL BE AIDED BY DIURNAL
HEATING TOWARDS EARLY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. BUT THAT MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY TROUGH BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ONE TREND THE MODELS HAVE HAD IS FOR A
SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHICH
MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. WILL MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE CWA TO ADDRESS THE INCREASING BUT LIMITED
POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL BEHIND THE
FRONT...850MB TEMPS STILL ARE AROUND 0C (UNLESS THE 00Z GEM IS
CORRECT WITH ITS -8C TEMPS) AND THAT WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BEING ABOVE
NORMAL. DID TREND THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS UP COUPLE DEGREES TO SHOW
SOME LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE HIGHS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF
MELTING THE SNOWPACK.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A DRY NIGHT ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM (00Z ECMWF/GEM IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE 00Z GFS IS ABOUT 6-12HRS FAST)...WITH
THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE FEATURE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW STALLS NEAR THE AREA AND STRETCHES
SOUTHWEST TO A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN TEXAS. WHERE THIS
FRONT STALLS DETERMINES THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS
IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AS THE 12Z RUN YESTERDAY BUT KEEPS THE FRONT
STALLED IN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS IT
OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED EAST WITH
THE STALLING OF THE FRONT AND PUTS IT IN LOWER MICHIGAN. EITHER
WAY...LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN DIMINISHING CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH COLDER AIR
SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAT A UPPER TROUGH WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION (SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THIS
WINTER). WOULD EXPECT THIS TO LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VCNTY. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO POP UP
THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW. UNTIL THEN...STILL A RISK OF FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL THE TAF SITES. IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE
IF THE FOG BECOMES WELL DEVELOPED...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE JUST
OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY AS MID CLOUDS MAY ACT TO DETER RADITIONAL
COOLING AND FOG POTENTIAL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS TODAY UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT...WINDS
WILL PICK UP TONIGHT/TUE...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN APPROACHING HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. WINDS SHOULD REACH
THE 15-25KT RANGE. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE WED/THU AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES MOVES FROM MANITOBA ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT WIND GUSTS AT HIGH PLATFORMS MAY REACH OR EXCEED
30KT AT SOME POINT WED/THU. WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL BRING
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR FRI.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

THE FORECASTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWMELT AND RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED
SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES FROM NOHRSC INDICATES A GOOD PORTION OF THE
SNOWPACK IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RIPENED AND WOULD EXPECT THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO INCREASE SNOWMELT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ON TUESDAY (INCLUDING LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT) WILL LEAD TO REDUCED SNOWMELT DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH SEVERAL NIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY SNOWMELT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.15IN).

WITH THE FORECASTED CONDITIONS...WOULD EXPECT ONLY LIMITED RISES TO
THE AREA RIVERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK. THEN AS THE
TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO PERSISTENT
RISING OF RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UNLESS ICE JAMS ARE EXPERIENCED...RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. PERSONS PLANNING
RECREATION NEAR RIVERS FOR THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH FROM THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST WILL SPREAD
RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN COULD
BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES SOUTH OF I-94. LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES TODAY. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST WASN/T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER POPS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WERE
TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING A GULF COAST LOW
FROM LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND THEN TOWARD
CLEVELAND. THIS TRACK IS A TAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN YESTERDAY. DUE
TO THIS WE NUDGED THE HIGHER POPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE FEED OF DRIER NORTHEAST AIR FROM CANADA THAT WILL
GREET THE RAIN WHEN IT GETS TO MICHIGAN.

LATEST SREF AND HRRR TRENDS WOULD PLACE THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN IN
THE FAR SE CWA AROUND NOON WITH A SLOW MOVE NWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN A SLOW MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE EAST. THE PCPN SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES COULD
MIX IN WITH THE DIMINISHING RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE PCPN WINDS
DOWN. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WASN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST IS A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A LIGHT EVENT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH MOST
LIKELY.

THE SECOND PRECIP EVENT IS NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN
SYNC WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF CENTERED MORE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BACKED OFF THE POPS IN THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT
NEXT WEEKEND TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE ECWMF WOULD EVEN
INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH IS JUST BEYOND THE RANGE
OF THE FORECAST.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS
IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY IN THE SOUTH WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS APPROACHING 70
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR IN THE AFTERNOON...
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT JXN/LAN/BTL/AZO AFTER 18Z.
IFR IS MOST LIKELY AT JXN/LAN/BTL...ESPECIALLY 21Z-03Z.

THERE WILL BE A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE RAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND GRR SHOULD BE RIGHT ON THAT EDGE. WILL
GO MVFR FOR A TIME AT GRR 21Z-02Z BUT WILL KEEP MKG ENTIRELY VFR.

SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES... WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014

ALTHOUGH RIVER ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS THE NUMBERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS HAVE
PROVED BENEFICIAL IN ALLOWING ALL BUT ONE LOCATION TO REACH CREST
AND BEGIN FALLING. EVART ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER IS THE ONE LOCATION
THAT IS EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY BEFORE
RISING SLIGHTLY BACK INTO ADVISORY DURING THE WEEK. THIS IS LIKELY
DUE IN PART TO ONGOING SNOW MELT UP NORTH WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ONCE AGAIN... THE LONE WARNING CONTINUES TO BE VICKSBURG ON THE
PORTAGE RIVER WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING.

RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION AS TO THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE RAINFALL. AT THIS
POINT SOUTHERN AREAS AROUND KALAMAZOO...LANSING AND JACKSON LOOK
TO BE A BETTER BET FOR DECENT TOTALS. CURRENT ANTICIPATED TOTALS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COULD CREATE A SLIGHT PAUSE IN RECENT DROPS
OR SHORT LIVED RISE...BUT OTHERWISE ITS LIKELY TO BE RATHER ROUTINE.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1103 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. ALSO..THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMING OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

MID LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WHILE LIFT IS MEEK AND LLVL MOISTURE IS SCANT...CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN/WI MONDAY EVENING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES RETREAT BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE ALTHOUGH
COOLER...IS ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

TRICKY FCST IN TERMS OF ISOLD SHWRS OVERNIGHT AT MAINLY KAXN-KSTC-
KMSP...THEN FOG PROBLEMS AT KMSP-KRNH-KEAU AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
FRONT APCHG FROM THE W. MOISTURE REMAINS SPARSE BY THE TIME IT
CROSSES INTO CENTRAL MN WITH THE WAVE BUT IT REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH SHORT-TERM MODEL DEPICTIONS...INCLUDING NAM/HRRR...OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS INCLUDING THE HOURLY INITIALIZATIONS. HAVE KEPT
SIMILAR TIMING INTO THE THREE NWRN SITES THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTION...MAINLY MVFR-
RANGE INTENSITIES IF ANYTHING AT ALL...AND IT WILL BE RATHER
SPORADIC/SHOWERY AS OPPOSED TO A SOLID -RA. THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR
WITHIN THE 06Z-14Z TIMEFRAME FROM W TO E ACRS CENTRAL INTO ERN MN.
IT IS NOT LIKELY TO GET INTO WRN WI SO HAVE OMITTED PRECIP
THERE...ALONG WITH SRN MN /KRWF/. THE NEXT PROBLEM BECOMES FOG
NEAR SUNRISE IN THE ERN TAF SITES. WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM WITH
ADEQUATE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WITH WARMER AIR
MOVING IN AND NO PRECIP EXPECTED TO SCOUR IT OUT SHOULD TO BE
PLENTY ENOUGH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. SREF HITS THE FOG PRETTY HARD
AT KEAU-KRNH SO HAVE DONE THE SAME IN THE TAFS...WITH A LITTLE
LESSER GOING WWD. ALL SITES RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MON MRNG WITH
WINDS BECOME STRONG/GUSTY FROM THE NW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

KMSP...VFR TO START BUT THEN TIMING POTENTIAL PRECIP INTO THE AREA
LOOKS TO START AROUND 10Z. IF ANYTHING...A COUPLE OF POTENTIAL
ALTERNATIVES MAY BE TO HAVE ISOLD -SHRA INTO THE MSP AREA A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER OR TO NOT HAVE PRECIP AT ALL BECAUSE THE
INCOMING WAVE BECOMES SO WEAK BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THAT PRECIP
MAY NOT EVEN DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINAL OR VICINITY...OR FALL AS
VIRGA AND NOT REACH THE GROUND. HAVE RUN WITH PREVAILING 5SM
-SHRA STARTING 10Z TO INDICATE BOTH INTERMITTENT PRECIP ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHTER FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THE TEMPO FOR IFR FOG
AROUND SUNRISE TO INDICATE THE STRONGER FOG POTENTIAL. VFR CONDS
FROM LATE MRNG ON WITH INCRG NW WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS WNW 10 KT.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 10-20 KT.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS WITH -RA. WINDS NW 10-20 KT.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

406 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH LATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...PRECIPITATION IS SLOWLY STARTING TO OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO LIKELY
REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. BASED ON LATEST
3 KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS...STILL THINK IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE
HOURS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. HAVE POPS
BECOMING LIKELY AFTER 10Z AND CONTINUING IN THE LIKELY RANGE
THROUGH THE DAY.

SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE BACK NORTH TO ENCOMPASS
OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS HAS THE LOOK OF A CLASSIC
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS CAPE VALUES PEAK AT AROUND 400 J/KG
LATER THIS EVENING WITH MODEST LI VALUES OF AROUND -2.
HOWEVER...GOOD 850-500 MB DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS INDICATED FROM 18Z
TO ABOUT 00Z AND IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED ANY CONVECTION
CAN GET AS TO HOW ELEVATED THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BECOME. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH A SMALL RISK OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN THE SHEAR VALUES. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGE TO 1.5
INCHES BY LATE THIS EVENING. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE 70S EXCEPT 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL WANE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DIMINISH...A THREAT OF SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. HAVE
HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AREA-WIDE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM MON...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
EASTERN NC EARLY TUES MORNING WITH ORGANIZED PRECIP ENDING FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE CWA. 850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN SW AND WITH THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION...CANNOT
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF HWY 17 WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL EXIST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REMAIN 1365-1375 METERS.

SHOULD SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SHOWERS EARLY TUES NIGHT THOUGH
THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO WED AS CHANNELED
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED WED
MORNING AS IT TRAVERSES EASTERN NC AND FINALLY OFF THE COAST BY
WED EVENING. PRECIP...CLOUDS...AND LOWERING THICKNESSES WILL KEEP
TEMPS MILD ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S INLAND TO UPPER 50S OBX.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
SUBSTANTIAL COLUMN DRYING. AT THE SFC...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 40 INLAND...WITH
MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY TREND CONTINUES THURS AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE.
HIGHS NEAR CLIMO...GENERALLY AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW 60S OBX. WITH
THE HIGH OFFSHORE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...RETURN SW FLOW WILL ENSURE
ALLOWING FOR BUILDING THICKNESSES AND INCREASING MOISTURE. HIGHS
WILL BUILD INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FRI INLAND TO UPPER 60S OBX. 00Z
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW LATE FRI NIGHT THOUGH LOCATION AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXITS
BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF IS DELAYED BY ABOUT 12 HOURS
COMPARED TO THE GFS...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. SURFACE HIGH TAKES BACK OVER SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SUN AFTERNOON. TEMPS AGAIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO SAT AND SUN...MID UPPER 70S INLAND TO 60S OBX.

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...CEILINGS CURRENT MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES AND DO
NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z AND THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO OUR WEST. CURRENT PRECIPITATION
INDICATED BY RADAR IS HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND DUE
TO LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS. CEILINGS WILL GO TO IFR AS PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SW EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IFR
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREA MON MORNING.
IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP
BECOMES MORE SHOWERY AND MIXING INCREASES IN THE WARM SECTOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. S/SW WINDS GUST 18-22KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MON...AVIATION CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUES TO MOSTLY VFR AS
PRECIP SHIFTS OFFSHORE...THOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES
EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CIGS WILL
BE IN THE VFR CAT. PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THURS AND FRI AS
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...HAVE ADDED THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO BEGIN AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT NOON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY S/SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO ADVISORIES AS WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM ENE TO S AS
THE WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
ON ALL WATERS SHOULD BE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATER IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 7 OR 8 FEET...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS BY MIDDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM MON...COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ALONG THE NC COAST TUES
MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME WEST BY
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED 5-7 FT
THROUGH TUES THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE TUES NIGHT WITH INCREASING N TO NW WINDS BEHIND IT. THESE
WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE SCA SEAS ALREADY IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS THURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA PASSES THROUGH EASTERN NC. NW WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE THURS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASING TO
10-15 KT ON FRI WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1144 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THOUGH SOME
DROPS TO MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IF WINDS CAN GO
LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR OUT AT RST/LSE. RAIN HAS BEEN OFF AND ON
FALLING MORE SO AT RST THAN LSE...BUT WINDS HAVE REMAINED IN THE
5-10KT RANGE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL
THOUGH THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH SOME POTENTIAL BRIEF DROPS TO
MVFR/IFR OVER THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MIAMI FL

925 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 850 MBS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING THE WEATHER
DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND THE PALM BEACH COUNTY REGION WHERE A
FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE COLLIDE. SO HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE LAKE OKECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH
COUNTY AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE..54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/

AVIATION...
ANOTHER DRY DAY EXPECTED AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SE UNITED
STATES COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOWER
CEILINGS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN MORE THAN VCSH. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
ONE MORE DAY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND THEN RAIN CHANCES
BRIEFLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST AND
SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A MAJOR MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE
ONLY AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOR AN INCREASING WIND
AND VEERING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE
SURFACE TO REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH PWAT AT JUST OVER AN INCH WITH
VERY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IN THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT IS A
STRETCH AND THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY DEVELOPMENT AT ALL
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SO PLAN FOR NOW TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE COOLEST AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL BE
QUITE PLEASANT FOR EARLY APRIL. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RAPIDLY
SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND MODERATING
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE STALLED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING THIS
BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANQUIL THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO OVER 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO
8 FEET BOTH IN THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS
VEER TO THE EAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON FALLING BELOW 35 PERCENT. THE 20-FOOT WINDS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 15 MPH AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, ERC VALUES HAVE BEEN LOW AND ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 27 THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL
BEAR WATCHING AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE EXCEEDED ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IF CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 74 87 62 / 20 20 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 77 88 66 / 10 20 30 40
MIAMI 84 76 87 66 / 10 20 30 40
NAPLES 84 74 81 65 / 10 20 50 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....54/BNB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

743 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER DRY DAY EXPECTED AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SE UNITED
STATES COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF LOWER
CEILINGS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN MORE THAN VCSH. /MOLLEDA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 74 87 62 / 10 20 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 77 88 66 / 10 20 30 40
MIAMI 84 76 87 66 / 10 20 30 40
NAPLES 84 74 81 65 / 10 10 50 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

1139 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO WATCH AREA TO REMOVE COUNTIES NO
LONGER IN THE THREAT OF A TORNADO. BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY HAVE
SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH...AND BEST LINE OF CONVECTION STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREATER MACON AREA THIS MORNING. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE OF CONCERN...WITH NUMEROUS GAGES IN THE
ATL METRO AREA RISING TO BANKFULL OR HIGHER. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE LAST 36-HOURS HAVE BEEN 3-3.5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 4 INCHES IN THE FAR WESTERN ATL METRO AND GREATER COLUMBUS
AREAS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE NECESSARY UPDATES TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS. OVERALL...LINE OF
CONVECTION EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA IS PROGRESSIVELY LOOKING
LESS ROBUST IN OUR CWA. MODELS INDICATING BEST CO-LOCATED SHEAR AND
CAPE WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING IN THAT
AREA...WHICH WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT STILL REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...AND
HAVE NOTICED WEAK ROTATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE ALREADY THIS
MORNING. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOME FOR TODAY
BASED ON UPDATED HI-RES GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STILL SOME LINGERING CAPE AND SHEAR. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE BEST SEVERE OR ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT IS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE FIRST PERIOD ON TAP WITH DEEPENING GULF LOW SET TO TRACK
RAPIDLY NEWD WITH AID OF POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGING NEGATIVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY MIDDAY. LINGERING CAD WEDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS NE GA THAT HAS MAINLY SERVED TO STABILIZE THE AREA
AND ALLOW FOR ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. HAVE RECENTLY OBSERVED
DISCRETE CELL TRENDS WITH GOOD ROTATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS IS PROGGED TO BECOME THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. SYSTEM HAS
OVERALL HAD A QUICKER TREND WITH THE MAIN PRECIP EVOLUTION. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS AN INTERESTING SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...BUT THE WRF-NMM
AND HRRR HAVE APPEARED TO VERIFY THE BEST NEAR ONSET SO HAVE TRENDED
POPS CLOSE TO THESE. THIS IN TURN BRINGS A LINE OF EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD MAINLY SOUTH OF ATLANTA
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER 12Z. THE CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY
STRONG WINDS FROM ANY CELLS TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM DOWN FROM THE 50
KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ANY LEADING DISCRETE
CELLS/MERGERS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LINGERING WEDGE FRONT.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN IN THE NORTH TODAY GIVEN THE RESULT FROM
YESTERDAY AND WEDGE MOISTURE OVERRUN. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE
RISK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STRONG AS THE COLD
CORE MOVES OVER THE CWA AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
TSTORMS. THE RISK OF THUNDER SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH 30S AND 40S FOR LOWS...THEN THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL BRINGING A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA WILL BE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PRECIP. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY LOW END IFR TO NEAR LIFR CIGS FOR MOST SITES THIS MORNING
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IMPROVEMENT AFTER NEAR 18Z. AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVING EAST WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR KCSG AND KMCN THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VSBYS WITH AREA OF
PRECIP BUT COULD BE LOWER WITH STORMS. WINDS INITIALLY NE BEHIND
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP FOR NORTHERN SITES THEN SWING MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A SW SHIFT FOR KATL AROUND
15-16Z. SHOWERS DIMINISHING SOME FROM NW AFTER 18-20Z THOUGH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR NEAR 08Z TUESDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON CIG AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS.

BAKER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 48 67 45 / 100 50 20 40
ATLANTA 68 48 65 48 / 100 40 40 50
BLAIRSVILLE 60 42 62 42 / 100 40 40 50
CARTERSVILLE 66 45 64 45 / 80 40 40 50
COLUMBUS 71 50 67 46 / 100 40 20 40
GAINESVILLE 61 47 64 48 / 100 40 40 50
MACON 72 51 69 45 / 100 50 20 40
ROME 66 44 65 45 / 60 20 40 50
PEACHTREE CITY 69 46 66 42 / 100 40 30 40
VIDALIA 76 57 70 51 / 100 70 30 30

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PEACH...PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...
TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...
CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...
DAWSON...DEKALB...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...
HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WEBSTER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1114 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED FORM NEAR MACON NORTHEASTWARD TO AROUND
ORANGEBURG AT 1100 AM. THE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI LINE. THE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SHEAR IS HIGH. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED H85 WINDS
NEAR 45 KNOTS. INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS
AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE NAM SHOWS SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING
TO ABOUT -1 THIS AFTERNOON AND -2 TO -4 THIS EVENING.

THE STRONG SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ADDED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT MAY
HELP SUPPORT TORNADOES.

THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE 12Z HRRR INDICATED THE MAIN TIME
FROM ABOUT 300 PM TO 700 PM AND IN THE EAST AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
INTO THE LATE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
INSTABILITY LATE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION.

THE NAM AND GFS SUPPORT TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 1 INCH. THE SREF
MEAN IS NEAR 1.1 OF AN INCH. WE ARE FORECASTING 1 TO 1.5 OF AN INCH.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HIGH BECAUSE OF THE RECENT DRY SPELL SO
THE RISK OF FLOODING IS NOT HIGH.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD POCKET
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME MINOR
POSITION AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN MAINLY ZONAL ALLOWING A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THE HIGH WILL CROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OFF THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND...THUS ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
(FA) JUST NORTH OF OGB. IT WILL TRY TO SHIFT NORTH TODAY...BUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMING IN FROM THE WEST MAY IMPEDE
ITS PROGRESS. THIS MAKES SURFACE WINDS A DIFFICULT FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM. IT APPEARS THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL
RULE FOR MOST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. SOME OF THE TSRA COULD POSSIBLY BE SEVERE.
HEAVIER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 09Z TO 12Z. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND A WIND SHIFT TO W OR NW AFTER FROPA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

1016 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MILDER
WEATHER RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT
MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SPECIAL 17Z SOUNDING WILL BE CONDUCTED TO BETTER GAGE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE WARM FRONT IS NOW LOCATED
INLAND WITH BOTH DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING.
MODIFIED 17Z RAP SOUNDING FOR SAVANNAH HINTS AT MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY FOR EARLY APRIL WITH SBCAPE NEAR 1200 J/KG WITH A
LIFTED INDEX OF -6C. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 50
KT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUGGESTS BOTH THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR IN NATURE...TAKING THE
FORM OF A QLCS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE BULK SHEAR. 0-1KM HELICITIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE RISE TO 200-300 M2/S2 WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. UPSTREAM RADAR SHOWS THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE AS UPSTREAM DYNAMICS SPREAD EAST. THE LINE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ORGANIZE AT IT MOVES EAST...MOVING THROUGH
THE CWFA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 1PM-7PM. SUSPECT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ALSO BEING POSSIBLE.

AS FOR NON-TSTM WINDS...WE ARE STILL WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A NASTY WIND MAX MOVING THROUGH DURING
PEAK HEATING. ITS STILL UNCLEAR IF FREQUENT GUSTS WILL REACH 40 MPH
PRIOR TO THE SQUALL LINE/S ARRIVAL...SO WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH THE EXPECTED
MOVEMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POPS WERE
MAXED OUT AT 100 PERCENT WITH THE LINE. ELEVATED POPS WILL LINGER
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE WITH MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT ITSELF LATER THIS EVENING. ADDED SEVERE WEATHER
QUALIFIERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES INTO THE GRIDDED AND
TEXT PRODUCTS.

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A SMALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BUT EXPECT LOWER LEVELS MAY BE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY THE
INITIAL CONVECTION AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS.
VERY HIGH PWATS SUGGEST WE WILL SEE SOME BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH A BIT OF TRAINING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT POTENTIALLY CREATING
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND PUSHING
OFFSHORE AROUND DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWERING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING
BACK IN FROM THAT DIRECTION WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS EVEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME GRAUPLE WITH THE
SHOWERS AS THE MID-LEVELS RAPIDLY COOL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK TO NEAR 50
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...COOL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE ALONG THE SC COAST TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPLE GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING/WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
COULD TEMPS DOWN NEAR 40 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE CAUSING A SLIGHTLY
WARMER ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COAST.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLWS WAS A BIT MARGINAL TO INCLUDE TO TAFS BUT THERE STILL BE A WINDOW
FOR SOME DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IF WARM FRONT IS 1-2 HOURS SLOWER
TO CLEAR THE TERMINALS. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH
VEERING AND INCREASING SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MAKE A RUN
FOR THE COASTAL CORRIDOR FROM 19Z-20Z TO AROUND DUSK. WE HAVE INCLUDED
TSRA AS THE WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
SOMEWHAT DEEPER CONVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE LINE IS ORGANIZED. MAINTAINED
NON-CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN BETTER MIXING LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. IF TEMPS GET WARMER AT KCHS...WE COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KT
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
TONIGHT. CIGS MVFR WITH IFR AT TIMES. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN FRONT.

.MARINE...
ADDED A MENTION OF SEA FOG TO THE FORECAST AND ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. ALREADY
SEEING AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST PER
PILOT BOAT AND WEBCAM REPORTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SINCE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SQUALL LINE...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING WATCHED
CAREFULLY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GIVEN MARINE STABILITY
FACTORS AND LATEST TRENDS FROM SURFACE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHT
OBSERVATIONS. A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY SEE
SPEEDS ONLY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT.
SEAS BUILDING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
OUR OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BY MID MORNING TODAY. TONIGHT...STRONGEST
FLOW OVER WARMER WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SEAS
CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM AT 6-7 FT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PLAY
HAVOC WITH WINDS AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

751 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOME FOR TODAY
BASED ON UPDATED HI-RES GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STILL SOME LINGERING CAPE AND SHEAR. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE BEST SEVERE OR ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT IS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.

BAKER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014/

HAVE LOWERED TEMPS DOWN IN THE NORTH TODAY GIVEN THE RESULT FROM
YESTERDAY AND WEDGE MOISTURE OVERRUN. WENT WITH BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

BAKER

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY LOW END IFR TO NEAR LIFR CIGS FOR MOST SITES THIS MORNING
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IMPROVEMENT AFTER NEAR 18Z. AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVING EAST WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR KCSG AND KMCN THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VSBYS WITH AREA OF
PRECIP BUT COULD BE LOWER WITH STORMS. WINDS INITIALLY NE BEHIND
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP FOR NORTHERN SITES THEN SWING MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A SW SHIFT FOR KATL AROUND
15-16Z. SHOWERS DIMINISHING SOME FROM NW AFTER 18-20Z THOUGH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR NEAR 08Z TUESDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM ON CIG AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH OTHER ELEMENTS.

BAKER

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

749 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARING MID MORNING...RAPIDLY VEERING/INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD BUT THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN A TAD BIT FAST TO THIS POINT BUT WARM FROPA SHOULD OCCUR ALL AREAS
BY LATE MORNING.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A BROKEN TO SOLID LINEAR
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FROM EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE FUELED BY STRONG UPPER FORCING AND IMPRESSIVE
MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP LAYERED CIN WHICH IS PROGGED TO ERODE AS
THE DYNAMIC WARM SECTOR EVOLVES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS INCLUDE RAPID MODEST DESTABILIZATION SEEN ON
MANY OF THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...0-4 KM BULK SHEAR REACHING
50 KT LATE DAY AND VERY FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE LINE. WE ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED IF TRENDS ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND
ARW-EAST PERSIST. WE WILL WAIT UNTIL MORNING SOUNDING ANALYSIS
BEFORE COMMITTING TO SEVERE WORDING IN OUR ACTUAL FORECAST.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS AFTER LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO
LIFT AND BECOME BROKEN...THE WARM SECTOR MAY BECOME CLEAN ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT THIN SPOTS AND BREAKS...ESPECIALLY IN SE GEORGIA WHERE
THE LATEST RAP MODEL PROG HINTS AT SB CAPES POSSIBLY IN THE 1500
J/KG RANGE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO DAMAGING WINDS BUT
THERE IS PLENTY OF SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES.

TONIGHT...A SMALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BUT EXPECT LOWER LEVELS MAY BE STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY THE
INITIAL CONVECTION AND POCKETS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS.

VERY HIGH PWATS SUGGEST WE WILL SEE SOME BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH A BIT OF TRAINING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT POTENTIALLY CREATING
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME AREAS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE CAUSING A SLIGHTLY
WARMER ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COAST.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLWS WAS A BIT MARGINAL TO INCLUDE TO TAFS BUT THERE STILL BE A WINDOW
FOR SOME DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IF WARM FRONT IS 1-2 HOURS SLOWER
TO CLEAR THE TERMINALS. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH
VEERING AND INCREASING SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTH BY MIDDAY.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1008 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

SOME BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. FIRST
OFF...DOWNSLOPING HAS ALL BUT ERODED ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA...SO WILL DROP POPS ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR AND LATEST
RAP IS ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA. AND SPEAKING OF THE HRRR...THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS...WILL BRINGING IN A
PERIOD OF BETTER POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION
REMAINS IS HOW QUICKLY WE CAN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
IMMENSE CLOUD COVER STILL OVER THE AREA. IF WE CAN WARM SUFFICIENTLY
TODAY...WE COULD GET TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY. WITH TREMENDOUS SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...THIS WOULD
CREATE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. ALREADY
OBSERVING SOME SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...AND SAFE TO
SAY ANY SUNSHINE TODAY WILL SIGNIFICANTLY BOOST OUR SEVERE CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS TOSSED ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO A SLIGHT
RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE
TREMENDOUS SHEAR PROFILES...DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL COME
TO AN END BY 8 PM AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST.

EVEN WITHOUT SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL HAVE NEARLY 50 KNOTS OF WIND IN
THE MIXED LAYER. EVEN MIXING DOWN A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THIS WIND
WOULD YIELD WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THUS...GOING TO TOSS UP A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FINALLY...DROPPED POPS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS DEEPER
MOISTURE IS LACKING TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. WE COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE VERY LOW.
NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL COME IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. REMOVED THUNDER FROM THIS PERIOD
WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

A COMPLEX 24 HOURS IS IN STORE...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN TN CONTINUES ON ITS PATH NE INTO
CENTRAL KY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 6Z THIS EVENING. EAST TO SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE TRANSITION TO STRONG WSW WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...STEERING A SHIELD OF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY
THIS MORNING.

PRECIPITATION...WINDS...AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING THE DAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO KY...ECMWF
SHOWS A STRONG 250/300MB JET MAX THAT WILL SET UP FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS CENTRAL KY...MAXIMIZING AS THE LOW EJECTS TO THE NE BETWEEN 6
AND 12Z TONIGHT. THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE WINDS WILL REACH A VERY
IMPRESSIVE 160KTS BY 12Z...WITH STRONG WINDS FELT ALL THE WAY DOWN
INTO THE MID LEVELS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL WORK
TO MIX SOME OF THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...CREATING THE THREAT
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY. AT THIS
POINT...WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT SOME POINT A
FEW LOCATIONS SEE HIGHER GUSTS MIXING DOWN BRIEFLY.

AND SPEAKING OF WIND AND GUSTS...WE HAVE THE CONVECTION AND POPS TO
BE CONCERNED ABOUT AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING...THAT IS
UNDOUBTED. ALL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENT OF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF QPF. ONE THING THAT THAT ISN/T SO
CERTAIN...HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DRY SLOT TO WORK IN ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...BEFORE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WORKS BACK IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT FIRST...KEPT LIKELY
POPS IN ACROSS THE REGION...AS IT APPEARED AS THOUGH PRECIPITATION
MAY LIGHTEN...BUT THERE WAS NO MODEL SUPPORT FOR ANY COMPLETE DRYING
OR SCATTERING OUT ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...LUCKILY THE LATEST HI RES
MODEL GUIDANCE STARTED TO TREND TOWARDS THIS DRIER SOLUTION. IN THE
END...CUT BACK LIKELY POPS TO SCATTERED FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF DRYING THAT MAY OCCUR.

THE WIND PROFILE AND FRONTAL INTERACTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A HIGH
SHEAR LOW CAPE CONVECTIVE SET UP FOR TODAY. 0Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A
VERY MOIST PROFILE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
LIMITING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE
PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL SHOW A STRONG
VEERING PATTERN NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER IN ALOFT. DESPITE LOW INSTABILITY
INDICES AND DRY SLOTTING POTENTIAL...EXPECT SOME PARCELS TO BE ABLE
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FRONTAL LIFT AND HIGH SHEER ENVIRONMENT. AS
SUCH...THE AMOUNT OF SPEED SHEER...AND DRYING ALOFT...WILL MAKE FOR
A HIGH POTENTIAL THAT ANY STORM WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALSO PRODUCING
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. KEPT MENTION OF THIS IN THE
HWO.

SURFACE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH QUICKLY BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z. WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT WESTERLY...ELIMINATING ANY LLVL VEERING AND
LIFT POTENTIAL. LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE...BUT STRONG INVERSION
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SET IN...FURTHER INHIBITING ANY CONVECTION
AFTER 0Z. EXPECT THIS LLVL WRAP AROUND PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE NIGHT...BEFORE THE MOISTURE FINALLY PULLS NE OUT OF THE REGION
AND DRY AIR BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY ALOFT AS IT CONTINUES ON ITS TREK NE.
HOWEVER...AS IT WEAKENS...ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP INTO
A DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER COMPARED TO TODAYS AS IT PASSES THROUGH KY...BUT
IT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO
SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE MID TERM PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH LONG LIVED
PRECIPITATION...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERALL.
STILL...MID AND UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION PREFRONTAL
TODAY. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BUT
CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE PREVENTING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 40S TONIGHT...AND
RECOVER TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW /JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN TO MISSISSIPPI. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE EAST AND A
STRONG WEST TO EAST ZONAL SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A
COLD FRONT START APPROACHING THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING SOME SCATTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA ON SATURDAY
AND USHER IN A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE US. FOR
TEMPERATURES STAYED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND...HOWEVER
NUDGED THE FINAL FORECAST TOWARD THE NEW ECMWF.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/WARM FRONT HAVE POSITIONED ITSELF TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND WIND SHEAR FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO START DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT NEARS...CAUSING
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AIDED BY A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WILL SET UP ACROSS KENTUCKY. EARLY
THIS MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BEGIN TO HELP MIX DOWN THESE
WINDS TO THE SURFACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 25 TO 30KT WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTS OF EVEN HIGHER
MAGNITUDE...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. AS FAR AS CIGS AND VSBY...THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. AS OF NOW...WE ARE FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...WITH CIGS AS LOW AS LIFR DOWNSTREAM. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS A
RESULT...ESPECIALLY ONCE HEAVIER PRECIP DEVELOPS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO WORK TO REDUCE VSBY.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-
106>120.

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

848 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN TODAY SPREADING RAIN SOUTH TO NORTH.
UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN CARRIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 845AM UPDATE...SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS RADAR TRENDS STILL SHOW RELATIVELY
LIGHT ECHOES APPROACHING THAT AREA. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
ELSEWHERE IN FORECAST. ONE THING TO WATCH FOR BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON IS THAT THE RUC AND HRRR ARE DEPICTING THE DRY SLOT
MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES EARLIER THAN THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS...AND THIS COULD BRING AN END TO RAIN EARLIER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS. WILL MONITOR THIS AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD EDGING UP
THE WV/VA PORTION OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH CURRENT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT AROUND 10-20F...AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IS STILL
RESIDING IN THE AREA. TOP DOWN SATURATION OF THE COLUMN WILL TAKE
SEVERAL MORE HOURS. RAMPED UP POPS IN THE SE RIDGES AROUND 12Z
WHERE AN EASTERLY LLVL WIND WILL AID IN POOLING MOISTURE AGAINST
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SATURATING THE COLUMN A BIT FASTER. ON THE
WRN SIDE OF THE RIDGELINE DOWN-SLOPING WINDS SHOULD DELAY THE
ONSET OF THE RAIN FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR OR TWO. THIS RAIN-SHADOW
EFFECT IS CURRENTLY BEING SEEN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS OF WV WHERE
ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IS BEING REPORTED.

BY MID-MORNING DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN GRADUALLY SPREADING RAIN
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. ALL MODELS HAVE THE DRY SLOT PUSHING
THROUGH BEGINNING AROUND 00Z. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE
RAIN AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO MORE CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS. MID-
LEVEL CAA WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH OUR SRN ZONES. DONT THINK ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS THIS
FAR NORTH FOR ANY REAL CHANCE OF THUNDER.

WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH FROM 00Z TO 06Z...WINDS
SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL WITH GUSTS ACROSS THE
SOUTH APPROACHING 30-35KTS. WILL MENTION STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN
HWO FOR NOW...BUT DO NOT HAVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ANY
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE DRY SLOT TODAY WILL HELP KEEP
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN CHECK...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AROUND
HALF AN INCH OR LESS RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT.
TAX

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE IS LACKING
AND THE DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY ELEVATED WITH AND
LIFTING LIKELY TO COME FROM THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
DUE TO MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED PREFERENTIALLY FROM THE LOWER
LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL RAIN SHOULD
IT FALL AT ALL. THAT SAID...LIFT IS FAIRLY WEAK...MOISTURE IS VERY
LEAN...AND UPSLOPE REALLY IS THE ONLY MODEST FACTOR THAT PLAYS A
DECENT ROLE OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...POPS WERE KEPT CHANCE OR LOWER
ACROSS THE AREA.

DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWS THIS WEAK WAVE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH INCREASING MIXING
SEEMS LIKELY BY THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD CATAPULT UPWARD BY THIS
JUNCTURE...WITH 70F IN SIGHT FOR MANY AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. FRIES

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONE FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AS IT PASSES.
HOWEVER...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN QUICKLY ALLOWS FOR HEIGHT REBOUNDS
AS IT PASSES...MEANING LOW LEVEL WARMING STARTS TO RETURN IN
EARNEST FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST PUMPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE 10C BY SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD CHALLENGE OUR HIGHEST
READINGS OF THE YEAR SO FAR. ADDITIONALLY...AS THIS OCCURS...THE
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RIDGING THAT WILL THEN BE CENTERED ALOFT
AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD MANAGE TO SLOW THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM ENOUGH THAT SHOWERS WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT TO RETURN TO THE AREA. FRIES

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING AS MID CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO STREAM IN. RESTRICTIONS WILL BEGIN SHORTLY THEREAFTER
AS MVFR CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. CIGS SHOULD
DROP FURTHER FOR MOST LOCATIONS INTO IFR AROUND MIDDAY. WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE FIRST OUT OF THE EAST AND VEERING TO
THE SOUTH TONIGHT. IN GENERAL THE WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS...BUT LATER TONIGHT GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS ON FRIDAY.

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

748 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES TODAY. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST WASN/T CHANGED MUCH. HOWEVER POPS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WERE
TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES. RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS AND VSBY/S STEADILY DECLINING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SET IN AT JXN. KAZO...KBTL AND KLAN
WILL DROP INTO MVFR CONDITIONS...WHILE THE WORST OF CONDITIONS
WILL MISS GRR AND MKG. GRR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DIP INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN TONIGHT
WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR. SOME FOG MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TODAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

742 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

FOG HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH IT UP THE HILL TO
KCMX...BUT DID INCLUDE MVFR VIS FOR THE NEXT HR. VIS HAS RECENTLY
FALLEN TO MVFR AT KSAW AS WELL AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
HR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TO BE VFR TODAY. APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCT -SHRA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND KSAW. HOWEVER...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON
COVERAGE OF -SHRA AND WHETHER THEY WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...DID NOT INCLUDE -SHRA IN FCST. AS GENERAL N TO NW
UPSLOPE WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS AND EVEN -FZDZ. SINCE FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...OPTED TO BRING IFR CIGS TO KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
NOT AN IDEAL UPSLOPE FLOW FOR KSAW...SO ONLY INCLUDED A LOW MVFR CIG
THERE. WHETHER OR NOT ANY -FZDZ WILL MATERIALIZE REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

922 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 7.5 C/KM. BOTH THE RAP/NAM SBCAPE IS
300-500 J/KG IN THE PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. SO FCST WILL CONT
AS IS. WE MAY ATTEMPT TO MAKE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY TO LOWER THEM E OF HWY 281.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 841 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

SENT AN EARLY ENHANCED SHORT-TERM FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE TO BETTER
DEFINE POPS THRU MIDDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR SHWRS WITH
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING. ONE EXPANDING BATCH EXTENDS
FROM GENEVA NEB-KIRWIN KS AND WAS DROPPING S. THE OTHER BATCH OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY WAS OVER THE SANDHILLS AND HEADING SSE.

THE 10Z HI-RES RAP HAS AN INTERESTING DEPICTION OF WHAT MAY
TRANSPIRE TODAY. THE SRN BATCH WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA. THE NRN
BATCH WILL DISSIPATE. THEN WE WATCH AS SCT SHWRS REDEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. STILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THUNDER POTENTIAL. WILL
DO THAT WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

THE 09Z SREF AND HI-RES OPERATIONAL QPF SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOSTLY W OF HWY 281.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CWA IN A BIT OF A LULL EARLY THIS
MORNING...ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH ERN PORTIONS
OF OK/KS...WITH ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ACTIVITY
HAS REALLY TAPERED OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING SOME
MUCH WELCOME RAIN TO MAINLY WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK PATTERN IN PLACE IS KEEPING WINDS FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND ERN LOCATIONS ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE...WITH A
BOUNDARY STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH WRN LOCATIONS...USHERING IN MORE
W/NW WINDS.

THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIE IN ROUGHLY THE
FIRST 12 HRS...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND THE STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED
ABOUT...MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE GOING ON ACROSS THE CWA...AND
KEPT POPS LOW. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE /WHICH IS ON THE WEAK SIDE/ SLIDING
THROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WRN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES...AN AREA THAT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES...AS A CORRIDOR OF COLDER TEMPS BUILDS IN. THOUGHT IS
THAT PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO
WAS NOT GOING TO MAKE INCREASES IN POPS...BUT DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS IN AREA. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIT OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SO DID INSERT THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...THE NORTHWESTERLY SWITCH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN THAT
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN SPEEDS...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE ROCKIES. THERE HAD BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND ADV LEVEL SPEEDS...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE DATA CONTINUED ITS
DOWNWARD TREND FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AND WITHOUT AN AREA OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES. SOME LOCATIONS...ESP IN THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA...MAY
COME CLOSE...SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN
EYE ON.

KEPT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT DRY AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA...BUT AM CONCERNED AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES MAY
TRY TO LINGER INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL LET DAY
SHIFT SEE HOW PRECIP TRENDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND ADD A
MENTION IF NECESSARY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT
LOOKING TO FALL INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL
KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. THE SUNSHINE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION STARTS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MIXING SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DEEP. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST DEW POINTS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWERS TO AROUND
20 PERCENT AND WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA
SATURDAY. SATURDAY DURING THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL COOLER AGAIN WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS COOLER THAN THE
ECMWF AND DURING THIS TIME THE GFS HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW 0
DEG C IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS WARMER AND
LOOKS LIKE THE 0 DEG C LINE SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA. SINCE IT
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF APRIL...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND AT
ANY TIME THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT THE GRI TERMINAL WILL GIVE
WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 25 MPH...AND GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TERMINAL BEING AFFECTED IS ON THE LOW SIDE...SO KEPT MENTION AS VC
AT THIS POINT.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

841 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014