Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/06/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
345 PM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...A FEW ECHOES SHOWING UP ON THE 1.5 DEGREE SCAN OVER
NORTHERN PARK COUNTY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN CLEAR CREEK COUNTY BOUNDARY
WHERE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS COMBINING WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SHOWS THESE WEAK SHOWERS
DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS BY THIS EVENING WITH
OTHER SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE
SHOWERS TO REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY HIGH BASED WITH MINIMAL RAIN OR
SNOW OCCURRING AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES AND LOCAL UPSLOPE WEAKENS. ALONG NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS...WAVE CLOUD HAD DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART
WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S. STILL SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL UPSTREAM WHICH WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WEAK LIFT INCREASES ACROSS MOUNTAINS
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MINS FAIRLY MILD IN VALLEY AREAS. ON
SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES DURING THE MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD COLORADO. MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND DEEPENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
MID LEVEL AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BETTER CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.
PLAINS TO REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. MOST OF
THE LIFT STAYS SOUTH OF COLORADO WITH ONLY WEAK OROGRAPHICS WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BUT DECENT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. DID BUMP
THE MOUNTAIN POPS MOST LOCATIONS AS A RESULT. WITH LACK OF
OROGRAPHICS...SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. ACROSS PLAINS...MODELS
SHOW WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK
UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. WITH THE INCREASING
LIFT AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES...SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHERE THE UPSLOPE WILL
OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN. TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...BROAD TROUGH MOVES ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY...KEEPING A
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THERE IS SOME COOLING ALOFT
SO THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING SNOW TO THE SURFACE ON THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH STILL AT FAIRLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE PRETTY LOCALIZED AS
SNOW FROM THE LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MELT. MODELS STILL
TRENDING A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING ONTO THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF US THOUGH...BUT MAYBE BETTER COOLING AND MORE WIND.
SOME SHOWERS ALREADY GOT ADDED FOR MONDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY SHORT LIVED...PERHAPS JUST A LINE OF SHOWERS EARLY
MONDAY...THEN RAPID WARMING ALOFT/DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. ECMWF STILL HAS ALL THIS A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH
LESS IMPACT THAN WHAT THE GFS SHOWS...AND RAPID CLEARING DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.
WARM RIDGE COMES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY IS STILL
LOOKING PRETTY DRY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD WARMING...ONLY
CONCERN IS IF SOME CLOUDS COME IN BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE IT AT THIS
POINT. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED THINGS UP A LITTLE OVER GUIDANCE
AGAIN...COULD WIND UP AROUND 80 IF NOTHING MESSES IT UP. A
SHORTWAVE WELL NORTH OF US SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE BY
THURSDAY...AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER WAVE COMING OVER IN THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. ECMWF HAS INSISTED ON A BIT STRONGER
FRONT THURSDAY...AND HAS A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN THE LATEST RUN.
BUT DETAILS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE. NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME COOLING IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS IN ORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...WAVE CLOUD HAD DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...STILL
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE DECREASING BY 01Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL. WINDS
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...THEN BECOME
NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE CEILINGS
AROUND 6000 FEET AGL BY 21Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
200 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING...THEN PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT 12Z NAM/14Z RUC/14Z HRRR IDEA OF
CURRENT BATCH OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN DISSIPATING UNDER THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE AREA OF RAIN OF W/CENTRAL PA BEING SLOW TO
PROGRESS E. AS A RESULT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS INTO EARLY
EVENING.
WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS AND ONSHORE FLOW -
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT MOVE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR SO FROM CURRENT
LEVELS AT MOST AREAS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TREK TOWARD THE REGION. AS IT DOES
SO...A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE RATHER LIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NY. STORM TOTAL QPF IS ANYWHERE FROM A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MORNING. A DOWN SLOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR
SATURDAY. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE PARENT LOW IN CANADA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT. WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. A ZONAL UPPER FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...GIVE WAY TO A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING AND PUSHING TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD.
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON THIS AMPLIFICATION...WITH
SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES LYING IN TIMING OF PAC SHORTWAVE AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY PHASING WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AS WELL AS
UPSTREAM RIDGING. THIS PLAYS OUT IN SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK/TIMING OF RESULTANT STRONG LOW PRESSURE TUE INTO WED...WHICH
FIRST EMERGES FROM THE SW GULF STATES SUN NIGHT...TRACKS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY MON NIGHT...AND THEN UP THOUGH THE NORTHEAST OR ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUE/WED. WITH A GULF MOISTURE FEED AND STRONG
DYNAMICS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 1+ INCH RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM
LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TOWARDS MAINLY A
RAIN EVENT. HAVE TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO CAT FOR MON NIGHT
BASED ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY. BASED ON
SETUP...EXPECTATION IS FOR TAPERING POPS TUES MORNING BEHIND COLD
FRONT. THEN INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKELY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
TUE AFT AND ONCE AGAIN WED AFT...COMBINED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AS DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH.
BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE REGION ON SUN. ON MONDAY...INCREASING
CLOUDS...DEVELOPING AFT RAIN AND DEVELOPING BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY LIMIT TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT WED WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION HOLDING A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE...BUT
THEN LIKELY MODERATING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING DIMINISHING
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WITH THE WINDS. ESE FLOW WITH GUSTS 18-25 KTS
INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASE FROM THE WNW AFTER 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.
VARYING MVFR/VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
CIGS/VIS DECREASING AS RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS/VIS MOVE
IN AFTER 00Z WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH A MORE PERSISTENT RAIN
AFTER 21Z. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO BE 22-05Z WITH DRIZZLE THEN
LINGERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EXPECTING FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE...SO COULD SEE VIS DROP BELOW 1
SM AT SOME SPOTS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS PSBL WITH PERIODIC LIGHT PCPN
THIS AFTN. START TIME OF HEAVIER PCPN THIS EVENING MAY BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE THROUGH
21Z. START TIME OF HEAVIER PCPN THIS EVENING MAY BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS PSBL WITH PERIODIC LIGHT PCPN
THIS AFTN. START TIME OF HEAVIER PCPN THIS EVENING MAY BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS PSBL WITH PERIODIC LIGHT PCPN
THIS AFTN. START TIME OF HEAVIER PCPN THIS EVENING MAY BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE THIS AFTN.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE THIS AFTN.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. W WINDS G20-25KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MON...RAIN WITH MVFR CONDS AND INCREASING E-SE WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT.
.TUE...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS...THEN
VFR. WSW WINDS G20-25KT
.WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT SUSTAINED FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A RESULT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S THEN SW AND THEN W WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA IN THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GUST TO SCA CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE EXISTING SCA THROUGH 6PM SATURDAY
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCA WINDS
CONTINUING OVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND SCA OVER THESE WATERS
JUST YET.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD HAVE WINDS
FALLING BELOW SCA SAT NIGHT AND OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW SCA ON SUN.
THE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALES
MIGHT EVEN BE REACHED ON THE OCEAN WATERS MON NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN BY THU AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
BACK INTO THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE REGION WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 4/10 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY
COULD PRODUCE 1+ INCH OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1225 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING...THEN PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT 12Z NAM/14Z RUC/14Z HRRR IDEA OF
CURRENT BATCH OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN DISSIPATING UNDER THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE AREA OF RAIN OF W/CENTRAL PA BEING SLOW TO
PROGRESS E. AS A RESULT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS INTO EARLY
EVENING.
WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS AND ONSHORE FLOW -
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT MOVE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR SO FROM CURRENT
LEVELS AT MOST AREAS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TREK TOWARD THE REGION. AS IT DOES
SO...A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE RATHER LIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NY. STORM TOTAL QPF IS ANYWHERE FROM A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MORNING. A DOWN SLOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR
SATURDAY. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE PARENT LOW IN CANADA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT. WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. A ZONAL UPPER FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...GIVE WAY TO A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING AND PUSHING TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD.
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON THIS AMPLIFICATION...WITH
SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES LYING IN TIMING OF PAC SHORTWAVE AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY PHASING WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AS WELL AS
UPSTREAM RIDGING. THIS PLAYS OUT IN SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK/TIMING OF RESULTANT STRONG LOW PRESSURE TUE INTO WED...WHICH
FIRST EMERGES FROM THE SW GULF STATES SUN NIGHT...TRACKS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY MON NIGHT...AND THEN UP THOUGH THE NORTHEAST OR ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUE/WED. WITH A GULF MOISTURE FEED AND STRONG
DYNAMICS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 1+ INCH RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM
LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TOWARDS MAINLY A
RAIN EVENT. HAVE TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO CAT FOR MON NIGHT
BASED ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY. BASED ON
SETUP...EXPECTATION IS FOR TAPERING POPS TUES MORNING BEHIND COLD
FRONT. THEN INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKELY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
TUE AFT AND ONCE AGAIN WED AFT...COMBINED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AS DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH.
BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE REGION ON SUN. ON MONDAY...INCREASING
CLOUDS...DEVELOPING AFT RAIN AND DEVELOPING BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY LIMIT TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT WED WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION HOLDING A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE...BUT
THEN LIKELY MODERATING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRINGING DIMINISHING
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS FOR TODAY...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS MIXING
IN BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 04Z
TONIGHT...BCMG LIGHT AND VRB.
VARYING MVFR/VFR CIGS THROUGH MID DAY...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
CIGS DECREASING AS RAIN MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTN. IFR CIGS/VIS MOVE
IN AFTER 00Z WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH A MORE PERSISTENT RAIN
AFTER 21Z. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO BE 22-05Z WITH LIGHT
RAIN THEN LINGERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY START +/- 1 HOUR IN TAF. HEAVIER
RAIN MAY START +1 HOUR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY START +/- 1 HOUR IN TAF.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY START +/- 1 HOUR IN TAF. LIGHT RAIN
MAY START +1 HOUR.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY START +/- 1 HOUR IN TAF. LIGHT RAIN
MAY START +1 HOUR.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN/MVFR CIGS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN/MVFR CIGS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...BECOMING VFR DURING THE MORNING. W WINDS G20-25KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MON...RAIN WITH MVFR CONDS AND INCREASING E-SE WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN.
.TUE...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS...THEN
VFR. WSW WINDS G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT SUSTAINED FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A RESULT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S THEN SW AND THEN W WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA IN THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GUST TO SCA CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE EXISTING SCA THROUGH 6PM SATURDAY
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCA WINDS
CONTINUING OVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND SCA OVER THESE WATERS
JUST YET.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD HAVE WINDS
FALLING BELOW SCA SAT NIGHT AND OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW SCA ON SUN.
THE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALES
MIGHT EVEN BE REACHED ON THE OCEAN WATERS MON NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN BY THU AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
BACK INTO THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE REGION WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 4/10 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY
COULD PRODUCE 1+ INCH OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN...PERHAPS STARTING A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE
ONSET EARLY...ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THE STORM PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS EARLY
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN DRY WEATHER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED SOME POSSIBLE RAIN WORKING INTO
SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING LIGHT
RAIN HAD STARTED AT WHITE PLAINS BUT NOT RAIN AT KPOU YET. DBZ
VALUES WERE OVER 20 INTO SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY SO SUSPECT SOME
RAIN WAS FALLING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS RAIN
CHANCES...INCREASING TO LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAWN...MUCH LOWER VALUES (BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE THRESHOLD) CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD. FOR NOW...LEFT THIS ALONE ALTHOUGH WE FOLLOW
TRENDS ON THE RADAR. THE HRRR INDICATED NO RAIN SHOULD FALL NORTH OF
HUDSON THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE ONLY WE DID WAS ACTUALLY RAISE A FEW TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT PER THICKENING CIRRUS CLOUDS. GLENS FALLS ACTUALLY SAW A
TEMPERATURE RISE IN THE PAST HOUR (FROM 34 TO 35) INDICATIVE OF
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED STRETCHED FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY START
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA
LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACK PARK....UPPER 20S LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...LOWER 30S NORTHERN CATSKILLS CAPITAL REGION
EAST TO THE BERKSHIRES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD....A STEADY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN...AND
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTN FOR THE RAIN TO BEGIN IN THE CAPITAL
REGION AND POINTS NORTHWARD. MAX TEMPS LOOK COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE IN EVENING HOURS...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
AT 850 HPA OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
TOWARDS LAKE HURON. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE NYC AREA...ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT.
STEADY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT TO SHOWERS. WITH THE SECONDARY LOW STARTING TO
DEVELOP...SOME COLDER AIR MAY WORK IN...BOTH ALOFT AND AT LOW
LEVELS...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SRN GREENS AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SNOW BEFORE ENDING. ANY SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS VERY
MINIMAL...AND WILL BE ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL WILL STILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHC WILL BE IN THE MORNING...AND ACROSS
NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS. A GUSTY W-SW BREEZE LOOKS TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL
BEGIN CLOUDY EVERYWHERE...SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE BY
AFTN...ESP FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW TO MID
50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR
OUT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH 20S FOR MOST AREAS...AND A CONTINUED GUSTY BREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY ANS THEN MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME EXPECT ANY PCPN TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY PM INTO THURSDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
AT H5 WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE ECMWF/GFS/AND GGEM ALL HAVE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AT
THE SURFACE WITH THE GGEM THE FASTEST AND THE GFS THE SLOWEST. BY
TUESDAY MORNING THE GGEM TAKES THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
WITH THE THE ECMWF HAVING TO LOW NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE GFS
HAVING THE LOW NEAR BUFFALO. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE GFS TAKES THE
SURFACE LOW RIGHT OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE ECMWF TAKING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR QUEBEC CITY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE IMPROVING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA.
HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS IN TERMS OF IMPACT ACROSS OUR REGION.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AS THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IMPACT THE REGION. DRIER
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN FLATTENS OUT ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY. HIGH ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER
50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KABL/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
UNTIL EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION. BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z SATURDAY
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MAINLY IFR AS RAIN BECOMES HEAVIER AND CIGS
LOWER.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MIOD/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND
LOWER AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A KPOU WHERE -RA WILL FALL FOR A FEW
HOURS AS A WEAK WAVE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITHTHE -RA CONDITIONS AT KPOU
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY MID OR LATE
MORNING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSER
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH IN THE FORECAST...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.
GRADUALLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT ALL THE TAF SITES ON
FRIDAY...GENERALLY AT 8 TO 10 KTS...BUT AT KALB WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 12 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL HELP KEEP FUELS RATHER SATURATED.
MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE FORESTED AND IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IN PLACE. WHILE DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...AND
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...AND END BY SATURDAY MORNING. QPF
LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ONE THIRD AND TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS WILL
CAUSE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE
NERFC IS NOT FORECASTING ANY RIVER FLOODING AND THE LATEST MMEFS
GUIDANCE DOESN/T SUGGEST RIVER FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS
UPCOMING EVENT. HOWEVER...IF QPF WERE TO INCREASE...MINOR FLOODING
COULD BE AN ISSUE...SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1240 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN...PERHAPS STARTING A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE
ONSET EARLY...ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THE STORM PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS EARLY
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN DRY WEATHER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED SOME POSSIBLE RAIN WORKING INTO
SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING LIGHT
RAIN HAD STARTED AT WHITE PLAINS BUT NOT RAIN AT KPOU YET. DBZ
VALUES WERE OVER 20 INTO SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY SO SUSPECT SOME
RAIN WAS FALLING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS RAIN
CHANCES...INCREASING TO LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAWN...MUCH LOWER VALUES (BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE THRESHOLD) CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD. FOR NOW...LEFT THIS ALONE ALTHOUGH WE FOLLOW
TRENDS ON THE RADAR. THE HRRR INDICATED NO RAIN SHOULD FALL NORTH OF
HUDSON THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE ONLY WE DID WAS ACTUALLY RAISE A FEW TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT PER THICKENING CIRRUS CLOUDS. GLENS FALLS ACTUALLY SAW A
TEMPERATURE RISE IN THE PAST HOUR (FROM 34 TO 35) INDICATIVE OF
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED STRETCHED FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY START
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA
LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACK PARK....UPPER 20S LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...LOWER 30S NORTHERN CATSKILLS CAPITAL REGION
EAST TO THE BERKSHIRES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD....A STEADY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN...AND
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTN FOR THE RAIN TO BEGIN IN THE CAPITAL
REGION AND POINTS NORTHWARD. MAX TEMPS LOOK COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE IN EVENING HOURS...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
AT 850 HPA OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
TOWARDS LAKE HURON. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE NYC AREA...ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT.
STEADY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT TO SHOWERS. WITH THE SECONDARY LOW STARTING TO
DEVELOP...SOME COLDER AIR MAY WORK IN...BOTH ALOFT AND AT LOW
LEVELS...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SRN GREENS AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SNOW BEFORE ENDING. ANY SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS VERY
MINIMAL...AND WILL BE ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL WILL STILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHC WILL BE IN THE MORNING...AND ACROSS
NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS. A GUSTY W-SW BREEZE LOOKS TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL
BEGIN CLOUDY EVERYWHERE...SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE BY
AFTN...ESP FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW TO MID
50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR
OUT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH 20S FOR MOST AREAS...AND A CONTINUED GUSTY BREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY ANS THEN MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME EXPECT ANY PCPN TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY PM INTO THURSDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
AT H5 WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE ECMWF/GFS/AND GGEM ALL HAVE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AT
THE SURFACE WITH THE GGEM THE FASTEST AND THE GFS THE SLOWEST. BY
TUESDAY MORNING THE GGEM TAKES THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
WITH THE THE ECMWF HAVING TO LOW NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE GFS
HAVING THE LOW NEAR BUFFALO. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE GFS TAKES THE
SURFACE LOW RIGHT OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE ECMWF TAKING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR QUEBEC CITY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE IMPROVING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA.
HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS IN TERMS OF IMPACT ACROSS OUR REGION.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AS THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IMPACT THE REGION. DRIER
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN FLATTENS OUT ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY. HIGH ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER
50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RAIN SHOWERS
OCCURRING AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z
SATURDAY.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND
EVENTUALLY START TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
AND THICKEN WITH TIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH OVERCAST MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BY 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS AFTER 12Z AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AT 8-12
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AT KALB TO 22 KTS AFT 19Z FRI.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL HELP KEEP FUELS RATHER SATURATED.
MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE FORESTED AND IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IN PLACE. WHILE DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...AND
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...AND END BY SATURDAY MORNING. QPF
LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ONE THIRD AND TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS WILL
CAUSE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE
NERFC IS NOT FORECASTING ANY RIVER FLOODING AND THE LATEST MMEFS
GUIDANCE DOESN/T SUGGEST RIVER FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS
UPCOMING EVENT. HOWEVER...IF QPF WERE TO INCREASE...MINOR FLOODING
COULD BE AN ISSUE...SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
738 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO
SEA TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE
NATION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING PRECIP WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
THROUGH THE DAY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. DID NOT
ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY GIVEN WARM LAKE WATERS AND SHORT FETCH
WITH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
RUC/GFS AND NAM ALL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GIVEN MOS
BIAS FOR THE PAST FEW DAY...WILL TREND AFTERNOON HIGHS UPWARD...
MORE IN LINE WITH THE RUC MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ONCE AGAIN.
TONIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA IT WILL BE
WEAKENING AND WITH NO ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE LIMITED. RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL
ALSO RESTRICTED WITH PWAT VALUES QUICKLY PEAKING AROUND 1.3 INCHES
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. STILL EXPECT LESS
THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH AREAS SEEING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE UP TO HALF AN INCH. KEPT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/NORTHERN FL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL REORIENT SATURDAY EVENING AND BEGIN WORKING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HOWEVER
DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BEGINNING IN THE CSRA
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACHING LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE AND RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES INLAND AND THROUGH WESTERN MS WITH A SWATH OF MOISTURE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL
BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND FINALLY EXITS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SOUTHERLY WINDS. SCATTERED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND THEREFORE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SHOWERS IN TAFS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO CENTER AROUND 03Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. ANY
SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO THE REGION COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL MONITOR PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SECOND SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA BY
EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL EXIST FOR PRECIPITATION AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
403 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO
SEA TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...
KEEPING PRECIP WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TODAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH. DID NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY GIVEN WARM LAKE
WATERS AND SHORT FETCH WITH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
RUC/GFS AND NAM ALL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GIVEN MOS
BIAS FOR THE PAST FEW DAY...WILL TREND AFTERNOON HIGHS UPWARD...
MORE IN LINE WITH THE RUC MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ONCE AGAIN.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA IT
WILL BE WEAKENING AND WITH NO ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING...
EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE LIMITED. RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT
WILL ALSO RESTRICTED WITH PWAT VALUES QUICKLY PEAKING AROUND 1.3
INCHES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. STILL EXPECT
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH AREAS SEEING
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE UP TO HALF AN INCH. KEPT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/NORTHERN FL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL REORIENT SATURDAY EVENING AND BEGIN WORKING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HOWEVER
DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BEGINNING IN THE CSRA
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACHING LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE AND RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES INLAND AND THROUGH WESTERN MS WITH A SWATH OF MOISTURE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL
BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND FINALLY EXITS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL WILL KEEP
WINDS UP EARLY THIS MORNING PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION. SCATTERED
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY
LATE THIS MORNING/NOON...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
THEREFORE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SHOWERS IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE IN THE 00Z WEST TO 04Z EASTERN CWA. ANY
SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO THE REGION COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL MONITOR PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SECOND SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA BY
EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL EXIST FOR PRECIPITATION AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
155 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FORECAST.
FOR TONIGHT...THICKENING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP INHIBIT GOOD RADIATION AL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE
RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP OFF.
FOR FRIDAY...THE HIGH RESO MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCALLY RUN
WRF ARE SLOWING DOWN THE APPROACHING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A
FROPA TOMORROW. THE HRRR IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE WRF...AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF RUNS FROM EARLIER. HAVE TRIED
TO TAKE A BLEND..BUT LEANED PRETTY HEAVILY TOWARDS A HRRR AND SREF
BLEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FRONT PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. AS FOR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATTENDANT FRONT TRAILING DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA...WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT KIND OF BREAKING OFF
FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...STALLING ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...TEMPORARILY...ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN A HYBRID
DAMMING EVENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BUT BACK TO THE
SHORT TERM...
SHOULD SEE A QLCS ONGOING OVERNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEW
HIRES GUIDANCE IS DELAYING START OF THE CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...SO DELAYED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER EXTREME NORTHWEST BEFORE 12Z. AFTER
THAT...LOOKS LIKE THE QLCS WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST...
WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE QLCS. BEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE WOULD OF COURSE BE WITH THE QLCS ITSELF. SPC
CONTINUES DAY2 SLIGHT RISK FOR NORTH GEORGIA...WITH GFS BEING A
LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH SEVERE PARAMETERS THAN NAM. AT 12Z...GFS
HAS 100-200 J/KG MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 50-60KT 0-6KM SHEAR AND
AROUND 30KT 0-1KM SHEAR ALL NOSING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA. BY 18Z...
MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM ATLANTA NORTHWEST WITH AROUND 50KT
0-6KM SHEAR AND 25-30KT 0-1KM SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MOVES OUT AFTER
THAT POINT WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINING IN NORTH GEORGIA CLOSER
TO THE UPPER WAVE AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAX CAPE VALUES
DECREASING AS IT SPREADS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TOWARD 00Z. SO WITH
ALL THAT...MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS BUT ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH GEORGIA WITH THAT AMOUNT OF SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. GFS SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER AT 18Z
MAXES OUT IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA WITH VALUES OVER 3. NAM AGAIN NOT SO
IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY SPOTTY AREAS OF STP OVER 1. A LARGE AREA OF
SHERB /PARAMETER FOR HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE CONVECTION/ GREATER THAN 1
/CRITICAL THRESHOLD...LIKE STP/ PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
TOMORROW AS WELL.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WITH
QPF VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. AS ALWAYS LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS. THE SYSTEM
COMING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS TOMORROW SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT SIMILAR HIGHS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
NOTICEABLY COOLER FROM ATLANTA NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
TDP
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS SHOW NO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES FROM RECENT
PREVIOUS RUNS. ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS AT
THIS TIME IS MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
20
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE STATE DURING THE SHORT TERM IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM AND MOVE INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM AS ITS EXITING THE AREA...
BUT THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVERALL SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING TREND.
THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY AND A WEDGE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN
THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY...THE RAIN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. NEXT SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...AS THEY BOTH TRACK IT NORTH OF GEORGIA...BUT
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM RETURNS ON SUNDAY...MORE ACTIVE TIME PERIOD APPEARS TO BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THUS FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY UP TO 250 J/KG
OF MUCAPE SHOWN IN THE GFS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE THOUGH WITH 40 TO 50KTS AT 12Z MONDAY WHILE THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ALSO STRONG...HOWEVER THE LOW CAPE VALUES WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY..THE INSTABILITY INCREASES
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH AROUND 35KTS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. COULD SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO SOME
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT COULD REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
11
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AROUND 09Z AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z. COLD FRONT APPROACHING NW GA BY 18Z AND THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OVER THE AREA AFTER 14Z
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 10 TO 15KT WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER SUNRISE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AND TIMING OF PRECIP. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 57 78 51 70 / 5 60 40 10
ATLANTA 60 75 51 68 / 10 70 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 55 70 44 65 / 20 90 40 5
CARTERSVILLE 59 74 46 66 / 20 80 40 10
COLUMBUS 61 78 55 71 / 5 60 50 20
GAINESVILLE 58 72 49 69 / 20 80 50 10
MACON 57 80 55 74 / 5 40 40 20
ROME 59 75 46 67 / 30 90 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 55 76 50 69 / 10 60 40 10
VIDALIA 59 83 62 75 / 5 10 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED
TO THE SOUTH AND MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT IS
PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AND SHORT
LIVED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EAST KENTUCKY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE SURROUNDING THIS BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THAT WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FRONT ALSO BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER WITH LOWER 50S AIR FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA REPLACING
THE MID 60S CURRENTLY SEEN THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S INBOUND RATHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S THAT PRECEDE THE FRONT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL
TAKE A SLOWLY DAMPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOME ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING BUT ITS IMPACT WOULD BE MITIGATED BY THE
RISING HEIGHTS. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL FAVOR THE HRRR EARLY ON
AND THEN A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS...GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PRE-FIRST PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WILL
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH NOW THAT THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAS BEEN DONE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXPIRING. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EXITING RAINS WILL HOLD IN FOR MANY MORE HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO...CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT RIDGETOP THAN IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNSHINE FOR SATURDAY WITH
SEASONABLY LOWER HEIGHTS LIMITING THE WARMUP TO THE MID 50S IN MOST
PLACES WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT A BETTER AND MORE
TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST AND ALSO ALLOWS SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE NORTH INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
FOR MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GRIDS...USED THE BC/CONSSHORT AS A STARTING
POINT WITH LITTLE ADJUSTMENT GIVEN THE CAA PATTERN. THEREAFTER...
POPULATED WITH THE CONSALL SUITE AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...
PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS AND SATURDAY DEWPOINTS. FOR
POPS...OUTSIDE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS...KEPT THEM LOW...IN LINE WITH
THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH
OF KENTUCKY AND TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUPPORTED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL LIMIT ONSET...THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD OVERPOWER THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOLER
WEATHER RETURNING BY MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
FREE WEATHER LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BY MID WEEK...PROVIDING RAIN
FREE WEATHER FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS...MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35 KTS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
PASSES. ANY MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. AFTER THAT...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH NO CIGS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO ENTER EAST KENTUCKY PUSHING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. A THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM THIS
BEFORE THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH. THE EARLIER STORMS AND HEAVIER
RAINS HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE. THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING HAS BASICALLY COME TO AN END...THOUGH A COUPLE AREAL
WARNINGS REMAIN...MAINLY SURROUNDING THE LARGER RIVERS THAT ARE
RUNNING HEIGHT NEAR SALYERSVILLE AND RAVENNA. WILL LIKELY LET THE
FLOOD WATCH DROP WITH THE MAIN PACKAGE UPDATE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SURROUND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND THEY
ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TRACK. FOR THIS UPDATE...DID FINE TUNE
THE POPS...SKY COVER...T...AND TD GRIDS ALONG WITH THE WINDS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS HAS MADE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER MORNING AS THE LATEST MCS IS
TRACKING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. HAVE DROPPED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SEVERE WATCH FOR OUR AREA WITH THE REST ON TRACK TO BE GONE BY 11 AM.
STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE
OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS THROUGH NOON...BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL KICK
IN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHARP FRONT DESTINED TO BE CROSSING INTO OUR
AREA. FOR THIS WE DO HAVE A WIND ADVISORY GOING INTO EFFECT STARTING
AT NOON AND LASTING THROUGH 8 PM. DO EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUAL FRONT AS IT PASSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIT
WITH THE MORNING ACTIVITY. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER
FOR THE AREA ONCE THE MORNING MCS EXITS...TOO. WILL CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH...AS THE RUNOFF MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE CREEKS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH ARE RUNNING QUITE
FULL. A COUPLE OF FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID PART OF THE
CWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
IN ADDITION...A FEW RIVER POINTS WILL GO INTO ACTION WITH A COUPLE OF
SPOTS POSSIBLY HITTING FLOOD. THE UPDATES FOR THE GRIDS AND
PRODUCTS...AFFECTED BY THE SVR WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO
TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING
UPSTREAM...WITH THE KENTUCKY MESONET REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LATEST MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS SHOW
THIS LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM...AND LIKELY
EXITING THE EAST BY AROUND NOON TIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS
UPSTREAM AND THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS LINE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STAY UNDER SEVERE
LIMITS AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING UP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS...AS AN
850 MB JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTIVE
LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WITH PEAK WINDS
GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS
TODAY...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AT LEAST DELAY ANY RECEDING THAN CAN
TAKE PLACE.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE
30S...DEPENDING ON CLEARING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO
THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...FINALLY
REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE
MID TERM...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
STAY NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHTS
TEMPS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWARD...TRAVERSING
THROUGH KY SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT A VERY STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO
PULL IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON
SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE AN
IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT ONCE THE PRECIP GETS
GOING...SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AT
ONSET...AND THEN A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. IF ANY OF
THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR
THUNDERSTORM...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HIGH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE.
THE ONLY INHIBITOR RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE
DURING THIS SYSTEM...INHIBITING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS IS
LOOKING TO BE A PRIMARILY FAST MOVING...WIND PRODUCING...RAIN EVENT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT JUST NE OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO
GAIN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...SOME DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT. BUT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE
REGION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE POPS TO
RETURN/CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...AS THE GEM AND GFS HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 18Z TUESDAY...AND THE
NAM THOUGH SHOWING SOME QPF...IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN
NATURE. EITHER WAY...DRYING OR NO DRYING...ANOTHER SWING OF MOISTURE
IS GOING TO BE ENTERING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE KY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE TROUGH AT
THIS POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR POPS IN THIS PERIOD...AS ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OR
STRENGTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SET UP OF THIS PRECIP.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH KY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
HOLD ONCE MORE. IT IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
SOME DECENT FOGGING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE GETS TRAPPED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORN. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35 KTS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
PASSES. ANY MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. AFTER THAT...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH NO CIGS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1030 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS HAS MADE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER MORNING AS THE LATEST MCS IS
TRACKING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. HAVE DROPPED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SEVERE WATCH FOR OUR AREA WITH THE REST ON TRACK TO BE GONE BY 11 AM.
STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE
OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS THROUGH NOON...BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL KICK
IN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHARP FRONT DESTINED TO BE CROSSING INTO OUR
AREA. FOR THIS WE DO HAVE A WIND ADVISORY GOING INTO EFFECT STARTING
AT NOON AND LASTING THROUGH 8 PM. DO EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUAL FRONT AS IT PASSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIT
WITH THE MORNING ACTIVITY. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER
FOR THE AREA ONCE THE MORNING MCS EXITS...TOO. WILL CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH...AS THE RUNOFF MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE CREEKS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH ARE RUNNING QUITE
FULL. A COUPLE OF FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID PART OF THE
CWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
IN ADDITION...A FEW RIVER POINTS WILL GO INTO ACTION WITH A COUPLE OF
SPOTS POSSIBLY HITTING FLOOD. THE UPDATES FOR THE GRIDS AND
PRODUCTS...AFFECTED BY THE SVR WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO
TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING
UPSTREAM...WITH THE KENTUCKY MESONET REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LATEST MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS SHOW
THIS LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM...AND LIKELY
EXITING THE EAST BY AROUND NOON TIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS
UPSTREAM AND THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS LINE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STAY UNDER SEVERE
LIMITS AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING UP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS...AS AN
850 MB JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTIVE
LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WITH PEAK WINDS
GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS
TODAY...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AT LEAST DELAY ANY RECEDING THAN CAN
TAKE PLACE.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE
30S...DEPENDING ON CLEARING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO
THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...FINALLY
REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE
MID TERM...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
STAY NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHTS
TEMPS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWARD...TRAVERSING
THROUGH KY SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT A VERY STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO
PULL IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON
SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE AN
IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT ONCE THE PRECIP GETS
GOING...SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AT
ONSET...AND THEN A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. IF ANY OF
THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR
THUNDERSTORM...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HIGH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE.
THE ONLY INHIBITOR RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE
DURING THIS SYSTEM...INHIBITING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS IS
LOOKING TO BE A PRIMARILY FAST MOVING...WIND PRODUCING...RAIN EVENT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT JUST NE OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO
GAIN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...SOME DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT. BUT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE
REGION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE POPS TO
RETURN/CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...AS THE GEM AND GFS HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 18Z TUESDAY...AND THE
NAM THOUGH SHOWING SOME QPF...IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN
NATURE. EITHER WAY...DRYING OR NO DRYING...ANOTHER SWING OF MOISTURE
IS GOING TO BE ENTERING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE KY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE TROUGH AT
THIS POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR POPS IN THIS PERIOD...AS ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OR
STRENGTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SET UP OF THIS PRECIP.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH KY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
HOLD ONCE MORE. IT IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
SOME DECENT FOGGING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE GETS TRAPPED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORN. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 KTS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-75 THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING FURTHER INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. ONCE THIS MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE WORKS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA BY 17Z...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE TO ENGAGE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BY DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
821 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
A STRONG TO SEVERE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY SWINGING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NASHVILLE AREA. CLOUDS TOPS IN GENERAL ARE WARMING ACCORDING TO THE
IR...HOWEVER WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE...THIS CLUSTER MAY HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEST OF I-75 AFTER 8
AM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STORMS IF THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO
TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING
UPSTREAM...WITH THE KENTUCKY MESONET REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LATEST MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS SHOW
THIS LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM...AND LIKELY
EXITING THE EAST BY AROUND NOON TIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS
UPSTREAM AND THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS LINE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STAY UNDER SEVERE
LIMITS AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING UP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS...AS AN
850 MB JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTIVE
LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WITH PEAK WINDS
GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS
TODAY...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AT LEAST DELAY ANY RECEDING THAN CAN
TAKE PLACE.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE
30S...DEPENDING ON CLEARING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO
THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...FINALLY
REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE
MID TERM...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
STAY NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHTS
TEMPS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWARD...TRAVERSING
THROUGH KY SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT A VERY STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO
PULL IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON
SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE AN
IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT ONCE THE PRECIP GETS
GOING...SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AT
ONSET...AND THEN A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. IF ANY OF
THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR
THUNDERSTORM...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HIGH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE.
THE ONLY INHIBITOR RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE
DURING THIS SYSTEM...INHIBITING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS IS
LOOKING TO BE A PRIMARILY FAST MOVING...WIND PRODUCING...RAIN EVENT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT JUST NE OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO
GAIN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...SOME DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT. BUT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE
REGION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE POPS TO
RETURN/CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...AS THE GEM AND GFS HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 18Z TUESDAY...AND THE
NAM THOUGH SHOWING SOME QPF...IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN
NATURE. EITHER WAY...DRYING OR NO DRYING...ANOTHER SWING OF MOISTURE
IS GOING TO BE ENTERING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE KY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE TROUGH AT
THIS POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR POPS IN THIS PERIOD...AS ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OR
STRENGTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SET UP OF THIS PRECIP.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH KY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
HOLD ONCE MORE. IT IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
SOME DECENT FOGGING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE GETS TRAPPED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORN. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 KTS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-75 THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING FURTHER INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. ONCE THIS MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE WORKS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA BY 17Z...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE TO ENGAGE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BY DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
705 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
A STRONG TO SEVERE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY SWINGING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NASHVILLE AREA. CLOUDS TOPS IN GENERAL ARE WARMING ACCORDING TO THE
IR...HOWEVER WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE...THIS CLUSTER MAY HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEST OF I-75 AFTER 8
AM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STORMS IF THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO
TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING
UPSTREAM...WITH THE KENTUCKY MESONET REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LATEST MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS SHOW
THIS LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM...AND LIKELY
EXITING THE EAST BY AROUND NOON TIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS
UPSTREAM AND THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS LINE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STAY UNDER SEVERE
LIMITS AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING UP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS...AS AN
850 MB JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTIVE
LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WITH PEAK WINDS
GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS
TODAY...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AT LEAST DELAY ANY RECEDING THAN CAN
TAKE PLACE.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE
30S...DEPENDING ON CLEARING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO
THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...FINALLY
REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE
MID TERM...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
STAY NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHTS
TEMPS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWARD...TRAVERSING
THROUGH KY SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT A VERY STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO
PULL IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON
SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE AN
IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT ONCE THE PRECIP GETS
GOING...SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AT
ONSET...AND THEN A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. IF ANY OF
THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR
THUNDERSTORM...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HIGH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE.
THE ONLY INHIBITOR RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE
DURING THIS SYSTEM...INHIBITING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS IS
LOOKING TO BE A PRIMARILY FAST MOVING...WIND PRODUCING...RAIN EVENT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT JUST NE OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO
GAIN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...SOME DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT. BUT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE
REGION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE POPS TO
RETURN/CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...AS THE GEM AND GFS HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 18Z TUESDAY...AND THE
NAM THOUGH SHOWING SOME QPF...IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN
NATURE. EITHER WAY...DRYING OR NO DRYING...ANOTHER SWING OF MOISTURE
IS GOING TO BE ENTERING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE KY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE TROUGH AT
THIS POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR POPS IN THIS PERIOD...AS ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OR
STRENGTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SET UP OF THIS PRECIP.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH KY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
HOLD ONCE MORE. IT IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
SOME DECENT FOGGING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE GETS TRAPPED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORN. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN
10 AND 15Z. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE...WITH
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO IFR/MVFR. ONCE THE INITIAL
LINE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS...BEFORE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ENGAGE BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTION. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH
BY EARLY EVENING...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LINE OF STORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO
TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING
UPSTREAM...WITH THE KENTUCKY MESONET REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LATEST MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS SHOW
THIS LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM...AND LIKELY
EXITING THE EAST BY AROUND NOON TIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS
UPSTREAM AND THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS LINE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STAY UNDER SEVERE
LIMITS AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING UP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS...AS AN
850 MB JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTIVE
LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WITH PEAK WINDS
GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS
TODAY...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AT LEAST DELAY ANY RECEDING THAN CAN
TAKE PLACE.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE
30S...DEPENDING ON CLEARING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO
THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...FINALLY
REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE
MID TERM...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
STAY NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHTS
TEMPS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWARD...TRAVERSING
THROUGH KY SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT A VERY STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO
PULL IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON
SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE AN
IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT ONCE THE PRECIP GETS
GOING...SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AT
ONSET...AND THEN A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. IF ANY OF
THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR
THUNDERSTORM...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HIGH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE.
THE ONLY INHIBITOR RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE
DURING THIS SYSTEM...INHIBITING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS IS
LOOKING TO BE A PRIMARILY FAST MOVING...WIND PRODUCING...RAIN EVENT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT JUST NE OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO
GAIN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...SOME DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT. BUT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE
REGION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE POPS TO
RETURN/CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...AS THE GEM AND GFS HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 18Z TUESDAY...AND THE
NAM THOUGH SHOWING SOME QPF...IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN
NATURE. EITHER WAY...DRYING OR NO DRYING...ANOTHER SWING OF MOISTURE
IS GOING TO BE ENTERING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE KY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE TROUGH AT
THIS POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR POPS IN THIS PERIOD...AS ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OR
STRENGTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SET UP OF THIS PRECIP.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH KY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
HOLD ONCE MORE. IT IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
SOME DECENT FOGGING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE GETS TRAPPED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORN. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN
10 AND 15Z. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE...WITH
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO IFR/MVFR. ONCE THE INITIAL
LINE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS...BEFORE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ENGAGE BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTION. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH
BY EARLY EVENING...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LINE OF STORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.AVIATION...CEILINGS FROM STRATUS AND VIS FROM FOG AND HAZE WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BECOME COMMON WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING FRI MORNING WITH S WINDS BECOMING N.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND STORMS WILL BECOME SCT TO NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS AND VIS WILL CREATE IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT DURING EARLY TO MID FRIDAY
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT EVERY TERMINAL BY MID DAY
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BECOME NW TO NORTH DURING FRIDAY MORNING
AROUND SUNRISE TO MID MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF JUST
EMERGING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE TO THE SOUTH...A
PACIFIC JET WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BAJA AND NORTHERN MX. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...A 30-40KT LLJ CONTINUES ACROSS EAST TX/WRN LA PER
AREA VWPS.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AND INTO THE NE GOMEX. TO THE WEST...A SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER ERN
KS...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT THROUGH ERN OK INTO NORTHERN TX.
LIFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AS REGION FALLS
UNDERNEATH THE DIFLUENT REGION BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF
PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ROUGHLY COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR THE 12HR PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON TOMORROW.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE INDICATIONS THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DEPICTED BY THE RUC AND HRRR MAY BE STARTING...WITH SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED ECHOES STARTING TO APPEAR ON REGIONAL RADARS. THIS DOES
LEND A LITTLE CREDENCE TO NAM/RUC FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED
EROSION OF THE CINH SEEN IN EARLIER RAOBS AROUND THIS TIME. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. IN ANY
EVENT...THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE KEPT SEVERE WORDING IN THE FCST
FOR TONIGHT...AND EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR ACADIANA. THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE POP FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY
TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE ONLY A
SHORT REPRIEVE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FCST TO BEGIN SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER...MORE SOUTHERN TRACKED...UPPER TROF. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
SE TX COAST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS LOUISIANA...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY PULL A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE APPEAR POSSIBLE
FOR A TWO DAY TOTAL...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
RISK SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE MEAN TROF WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS MILD BUT OTHERWISE BENIGN WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WED...THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A
MODERATING TREND BEGINNING THURSDAY.
MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL GULF WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY SEA FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO AND THEN STALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FOR THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW AFFECTS
THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 67 79 56 68 56 / 60 40 10 60 60
KBPT 68 78 57 68 58 / 60 30 10 60 50
KAEX 66 76 51 68 53 / 80 30 10 40 70
KLFT 68 81 57 69 58 / 60 60 20 60 70
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1120 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
USHERING IN COLDER AIR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1120 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WELL AS SKY COVER. OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN WHITES.
PREVIOUSLY...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS EVENING...MOSTLY FOR POPS. SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO CROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM ABOUT NORTH
CONWAY TO ROCKLAND AND POINTS NORTH. LATEST HRRR RUN PICKING UP ON
THIS PCPN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
PREV DISC...
5H TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL SEE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THIS EVENING WITH A GREATER CHANCE
IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. POPS DECREASE QUICKLY
AFTER THAT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS BUT MOUNTAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. USED A
BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR TEMPS TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NICE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SOUTH AND IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE WEST DUE TO WAA ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH WARM ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
START WITH AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTH CAN EXPECT UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WHILE TO THE
SOUTH WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 50S. BY THE END OF THE DAY SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO OUR SW. OUR SNOW PACK...WHICH
VARIES TO NOTHING NEAR PORTLAND TO STILL ~40 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH....WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY RECEDE.
OPEN WAVE ENERGY ALOFT SHIFTS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY
SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS NH AND MAINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND
SLEET FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE THE RAIN...TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO REACH THE 40S AND 50S AS WE
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH CONCORD AND
PORTSMOUTH EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 60 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A
BIGGER TEMPERATURE VARIATION AS COOLER AIR (30S AND 40S) WEDGE
NORTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WARM TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
WARM WEATHER AS SW WINDS CONTINUE. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER
WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
PW VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE HIGH AND ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE AS THIS SYSTEM IS BETTER
RESOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR AS CLOUDS LIFT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR ON MONDAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR ON WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT FOR KHIE. ALL SITES VFR ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR WIND
GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...GALES POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
755 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
USHERING IN COLDER AIR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS EVENING...MOSTLY FOR POPS. SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO CROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM ABOUT NORTH
CONWAY TO ROCKLAND AND POINTS NORTH. LATEST HRRR RUN PICKING UP ON
THIS PCPN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
PREV DISC...
5H TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL SEE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THIS EVENING WITH A GREATER CHANCE
IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. POPS DECREASE QUICKLY
AFTER THAT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS BUT MOUNTAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. USED A
BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR TEMPS TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NICE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SOUTH AND IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE WEST DUE TO WAA ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH WARM ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
START WITH AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTH CAN EXPECT UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WHILE TO THE
SOUTH WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 50S. BY THE END OF THE DAY SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO OUR SW. OUR SNOW PACK...WHICH
VARIES TO NOTHING NEAR PORTLAND TO STILL ~40 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH....WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY RECEDE.
OPEN WAVE ENERGY ALOFT SHIFTS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY
SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS NH AND MAINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND
SLEET FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE THE RAIN...TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO REACH THE 40S AND 50S AS WE
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH CONCORD AND
PORTSMOUTH EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 60 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A
BIGGER TEMPERATURE VARIATION AS COOLER AIR (30S AND 40S) WEDGE
NORTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WARM TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
WARM WEATHER AS SW WINDS CONTINUE. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER
WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
PW VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE HIGH AND ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE AS THIS SYSTEM IS BETTER
RESOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR AS CLOUDS LIFT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR ON MONDAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR ON WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT FOR KHIE. ALL SITES VFR ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR WIND
GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...GALES POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
718 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT THEN
CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
711 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE PRECIP CHANCES UPWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST RUC SHOWED A DECENT AREA OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE THROUGH 06Z(2 AM) AND THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z NAM. LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 6.0 C/KM W/DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS.
THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS. THE LOCAL SNOW SQUALL STUDY BEING DONE HERE SHOWED A BAND
OF SNOW SQUALLS FROM 8 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ADDED UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW MAINLY NEAR THE
MAINE/CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO SHOW A
GRADUAL COOLDOWN THIS EVENING BUT A FEW DEGREE UP FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LOW WHICH BROUGHT SOME WET SNOW AND RAIN TO THE AREA WILL BE
LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZE DOWNEAST THIS EVENING AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY. SUNDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY AND THE NORTH
WILL BEGIN CLOUDY BUT TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DOWNEAST ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CRITICAL THICKNESSES
EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DOWNEAST. ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS EXPECT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX.
THE LOW WILL REACH MAINE LATER TUESDAY DRAWING WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS TUESDAY. THE WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS MAINE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH. BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD. RIGHT NOW BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
UPPER AIR PROFILES THIS ACTIVITY WILL FALL IN FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN
WITH MOST LOCATIONS HANGING ON TO ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO WITH LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST DECENT
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY W TO NW WINDS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
WHILE WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF MAINE ACROSS QUEBEC. THIS WILL
BRING BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY WITH WARM
FRONT THEN AS LOW SWINGS EAST A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM
NW TO SE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PRECIP COULD START OUT AS
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN.
THEN MIXING ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY AND BACK TO RAIN THE
REST OF FRIDAY. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST THIS
EVENING THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY BREEZE
ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY CONDITIONS
COULD REDUCE BACK TO MVFR FOR NORTHERN SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH SUNDAY FOR WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE
LEVELS TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN LATER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
304 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SNOW CONTINUES HEAVY OVER THE WEST TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS
HAVE SEEN THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS STORM THUS FAR. SNOW AMOUNTS SO
FAR OVER THE WEST OF AT LEAST 10 INCHES IN MANY AREAS. PTYPE ISSUES
AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL HAS KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER CNTRL
CWA LESS THAN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME.
BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT CNTRL CWA INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. JUST
RECEIVED REPORT FROM SPOTTER NEAR NORWAY OF OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE
HOUR WITH THIS SNOW AS IT MOVED THROUGH. BASED ON NUMEROUS REPORTS
RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...THANKS TO EVERYONE FOR THOSE...WE HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON PTYPE. TURNS OUT THE RUC13 HAS DECENT HANDLE AS
WELL...SHOWING THE WARM LAYER AT 750MB COLLAPSING EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IS WHAT ON THE GROUND REPORTS AND 88D MQT DUAL
POL CC DATA INDICATE. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG WI BORDER AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN. CLOSER TO
LK SUPERIOR AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CWA...EXPECT TOTALS INTO THIS EVENING STILL IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH
RANGE. APPEARS THE MOST SNOW FROM HERE ON OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NCNTRL CWA...BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES. WOULD
IMAGINE UPSLOPE AREAS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL STILL SEE TOTALS OVER
A FOOT LOCALLY.
NO CHANGES TO HAZARDS FOR NOW. TWEAKED WORDING TO DOWNPLAY ICE/SLEET
AND HIT UP THE SNOW MORE. ALSO UPDATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN GRIDS
AND WSW STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
KEPT SPIRIT OF PREVIOUS FORECAST UNCHANGED AS ONGOING WINTER STORM
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
LITTLE LESS THAN RUNS FROM 12 HOURS AGO...SO LOWERED QPF/SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY AS HEAVY PRECIP AND SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR LIKELY IN AREAS EXPECTED SNOW. THE ONLY AREA NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE MOSTLY SNOW IS OVER THE ERN U.P. AND AREAS SE OF A LINE FROM
GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS AS ELEVATED WARM NOSE MOVES INTO THESE AREAS.
ON THE N/NW FRINGES OF THE WARM NOSE...LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH FOR PRIMARILY SLEET THIS MORNING WHILE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY THE PRECIP WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO RAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING. BY 18Z TODAY...COLDER AIR MOVES IN THAT WILL TURN
LIQUID PRECIP TO SNOW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH STILL EXPECTED OVER SRN DELTA AND SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /INCLUDING WHAT HAS BEEN
SEEN SO FAR SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-18 INCHES
IN THE ALL SNOW AREA NW OF A LINE FROM GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS...WITH
THE HIGHEST OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE WITH VERY
DRY AIR MOVES TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z SAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE TROFS IN THE PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A
TENDENCY FOR RIDGING OVER WRN NAMERICA OR ALONG THE W COAST AND
TROFFING OVER ERN NAMERICA. RESULT WILL BE FLUCTUATION OF TEMPS
BTWN ABOVE AND BLO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO. AFTER THE
ONGOING STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENTS DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA MOVES E AND THEN LIFTS NE TO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES.
COMPARED TO TODAY...THE WEATHER SAT WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT AS
A VERY DRY AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE E EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTN...BUT OTHERWISE...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE BRIGHT SUNSHINE ON THE FRESH SNOW
COVER. WITH THE EVER INCREASING MID DAY SUN ANGLE NOW THAT WE ARE
INTO EARLY APR...THE FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RESPOND
NICELY. OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
30S TO MID 40S. IT WILL BE COOLEST (LWR 30S) OVER THE E NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR UNDER NW WINDS OFF THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE.
SAT NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. ASSOCIATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTENING TAKING PLACE AT LOW LEVELS
TO YIELD SOME PCPN LATER IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NW FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS COULD BE A MIX OF
SNOW/FZRA/RA. ONLY SCHC POPS WILL BE UTILIZED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN WHETHER ANY PCPN WILL REACH THE SFC.
LOW PCPN CHC WILL SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA SUN AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHIFTS E. WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN PTYPE
CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO AT LEAST THE 40S ACROSS THE FCST
AREA (SOME LWR 50S ALONG WI BORDER).
SUN NIGHT/MON...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SRN END OF THE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO CA. SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN
AND THEN LIFT NE SUN NIGHT/MON IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER
WRN NAMERICA WHICH FORCES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHARPLY SSE THRU THE WRN
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE WRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
DISPLACED TOO FAR W OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TO PHASE WITH IT AND FORCE
IT FAR ENOUGH N TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON UPPER MI. WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF AXIS...THERE MAY BE SOME -RA...WITH -FZRA
ALSO POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
AS PTYPE MON NIGHT. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. NEXT SET OF SHORTWAVES
TRACK ESE INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED NIGHT/THU. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN INTO THE AREA LATER WED
INTO WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT`S UNCERTAIN HOW FAR S THE COLUMN WILL
SATURATE UNDER THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE GFS KEEPS WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PCPN WELL N OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS PCPN ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE NEEDED GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY (LOWEST POPS SW AND HIGHEST POPS NE). GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE WARMING (850MB TEMPS RISE TO 4 TO 9C ECMWF OR 10 TO 13C
GFS)...PTYPE WILL BE RAIN...THOUGH SOME -FZRA MAY OCCUR OVER THE E
WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL JUST BLO FREEZING. WITH SFC LOW PASSING BY TO
THE N...COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH POTENTIAL OF
SOME -SHRA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
VLIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING HAVE GRADUALLY GAVE WAY TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW IS FILLING BACK IN...DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VLIFR AGAIN TODAY AS MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL
BE OF THE LIGHTER VARIETY. STILL...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THE LONGEST AT SAW DUE TO THE N-NE FLOW. ALL SITES WILL SEE SOME
BLSN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN EVENTUALLY TO VFR AS THE SNOW ENDS RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
NNW GALES OF 35-40KTS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE
OVER NE LAKE HURON WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC ON SATURDAY WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY
BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. A LOW ACROSS THE N
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MERGING WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
EXPECT THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH TO MOVE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON
TUESDAY AND FAR E CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A RIDGE SWINGS ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
NEARING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEARING 30KTS. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>011-013-014-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ246>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SNOW CONTINUES HEAVY OVER THE WEST TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS
HAVE SEEN THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS STORM THUS FAR. SNOW AMOUNTS SO
FAR OVER THE WEST OF AT LEAST 10 INCHES IN MANY AREAS. PTYPE ISSUES
AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL HAS KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER CNTRL
CWA LESS THAN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME.
BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT CNTRL CWA INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. JUST
RECEIVED REPORT FROM SPOTTER NEAR NORWAY OF OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE
HOUR WITH THIS SNOW AS IT MOVED THROUGH. BASED ON NUMEROUS REPORTS
RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...THANKS TO EVERYONE FOR THOSE...WE HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON PTYPE. TURNS OUT THE RUC13 HAS DECENT HANDLE AS
WELL...SHOWING THE WARM LAYER AT 750MB COLLAPSING EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IS WHAT ON THE GROUND REPORTS AND 88D MQT DUAL
POL CC DATA INDICATE. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG WI BORDER AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN. CLOSER TO
LK SUPERIOR AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CWA...EXPECT TOTALS INTO THIS EVENING STILL IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH
RANGE. APPEARS THE MOST SNOW FROM HERE ON OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NCNTRL CWA...BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES. WOULD
IMAGINE UPSLOPE AREAS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL STILL SEE TOTALS OVER
A FOOT LOCALLY.
NO CHANGES TO HAZARDS FOR NOW. TWEAKED WORDING TO DOWNPLAY ICE/SLEET
AND HIT UP THE SNOW MORE. ALSO UPDATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN GRIDS
AND WSW STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
KEPT SPIRIT OF PREVIOUS FORECAST UNCHANGED AS ONGOING WINTER STORM
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
LITTLE LESS THAN RUNS FROM 12 HOURS AGO...SO LOWERED QPF/SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY AS HEAVY PRECIP AND SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR LIKELY IN AREAS EXPECTED SNOW. THE ONLY AREA NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE MOSTLY SNOW IS OVER THE ERN U.P. AND AREAS SE OF A LINE FROM
GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS AS ELEVATED WARM NOSE MOVES INTO THESE AREAS.
ON THE N/NW FRINGES OF THE WARM NOSE...LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH FOR PRIMARILY SLEET THIS MORNING WHILE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY THE PRECIP WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO RAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING. BY 18Z TODAY...COLDER AIR MOVES IN THAT WILL TURN
LIQUID PRECIP TO SNOW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH STILL EXPECTED OVER SRN DELTA AND SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /INCLUDING WHAT HAS BEEN
SEEN SO FAR SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-18 INCHES
IN THE ALL SNOW AREA NW OF A LINE FROM GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS...WITH
THE HIGHEST OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE WITH VERY
DRY AIR MOVES TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z SAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE TROFS IN THE PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A
TENDENCY FOR RIDGING OVER WRN NAMERICA OR ALONG THE W COAST AND
TROFFING OVER ERN NAMERICA. RESULT WILL BE FLUCTUATION OF TEMPS
BTWN ABOVE AND BLO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO. AFTER THE
ONGOING STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENTS DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA MOVES E AND THEN LIFTS NE TO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES.
COMPARED TO TODAY...THE WEATHER SAT WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT AS
A VERY DRY AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE E EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTN...BUT OTHERWISE...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE BRIGHT SUNSHINE ON THE FRESH SNOW
COVER. WITH THE EVER INCREASING MID DAY SUN ANGLE NOW THAT WE ARE
INTO EARLY APR...THE FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RESPOND
NICELY. OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
30S TO MID 40S. IT WILL BE COOLEST (LWR 30S) OVER THE E NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR UNDER NW WINDS OFF THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE.
SAT NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. ASSOCIATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTENING TAKING PLACE AT LOW LEVELS
TO YIELD SOME PCPN LATER IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NW FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS COULD BE A MIX OF
SNOW/FZRA/RA. ONLY SCHC POPS WILL BE UTILIZED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN WHETHER ANY PCPN WILL REACH THE SFC.
LOW PCPN CHC WILL SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA SUN AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHIFTS E. WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN PTYPE
CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO AT LEAST THE 40S ACROSS THE FCST
AREA (SOME LWR 50S ALONG WI BORDER).
SUN NIGHT/MON...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SRN END OF THE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO CA. SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN
AND THEN LIFT NE SUN NIGHT/MON IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER
WRN NAMERICA WHICH FORCES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHARPLY SSE THRU THE WRN
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE WRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
DISPLACED TOO FAR W OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TO PHASE WITH IT AND FORCE
IT FAR ENOUGH N TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON UPPER MI. WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF AXIS...THERE MAY BE SOME -RA...WITH -FZRA
ALSO POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
AS PTYPE MON NIGHT. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. NEXT SET OF SHORTWAVES
TRACK ESE INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED NIGHT/THU. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN INTO THE AREA LATER WED
INTO WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT`S UNCERTAIN HOW FAR S THE COLUMN WILL
SATURATE UNDER THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE GFS KEEPS WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PCPN WELL N OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS PCPN ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE NEEDED GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY (LOWEST POPS SW AND HIGHEST POPS NE). GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE WARMING (850MB TEMPS RISE TO 4 TO 9C ECMWF OR 10 TO 13C
GFS)...PTYPE WILL BE RAIN...THOUGH SOME -FZRA MAY OCCUR OVER THE E
WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL JUST BLO FREEZING. WITH SFC LOW PASSING BY TO
THE N...COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH POTENTIAL OF
SOME -SHRA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
VLIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING HAVE GRADUALLY GAVE WAY TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW IS FILLING BACK IN...DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VLIFR AGAIN TODAY AS MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL
BE OF THE LIGHTER VARIETY. STILL...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THE LONGEST AT SAW DUE TO THE N-NE FLOW. ALL SITES WILL SEE SOME
BLSN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN EVENTUALLY TO VFR AS THE SNOW ENDS RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER N MO WILL MOVE TO S LAKE MI BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...ACROSS N LOWER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT ALONG THE
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NE TO N GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY TO
EXPAND OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE N AND NNW.
WINDS FROM MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
30KTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW ACROSS S HUDSON BAY WILL ALLOW A BRIEF
TROUGH TO EXTEND OVER FAR N LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN LOW
PRESSURE NEAR KY MONDAY MORNING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT THE TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO FILL SLIGHTLY ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>011-013-014-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ246>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
146 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
AREA OF RAINFALL FROM PTK NORTH AS OF 17Z PUSHING NORTH HAS ALLOWED
VISIBILITIES TO RISE IN ITS WAKE. STILL...PERIODIC REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE REMAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT PASSES AND INCREASING SW WINDS SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WINDS. FROM UPSTREAM OBS...EXPECT GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO LAG FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT BY 1-2 HOURS. TAFS SHOW A
STEADY RAMP-UP IN GUSTS FROM 18-20Z FROM PTK SOUTH...19-21Z FOR FNT
AND MBS. CEILINGS WILL ALSO RISE TO MVFR DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS GRADUALLY ENDING. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
FOR DTW...LIGHT SSW WINDS AT 18Z WILL RAMP UP THROUGH 20Z WHILE
VEERING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION. GUSTS NEAR 40KT ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20Z-01Z...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE FROM 01-08Z.
THE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FOR AIRCRAFT
LANDING TOWARD SSW. VISIBILITIES MAY FLUCTUATE PRIOR TO 20Z BUT
UNDERGO A RISING TREND. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY 20Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 200 FT AND VSBY BELOW 1/2 SM
PRIOR TO 20Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5 KFT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM
250-260 DEGREES AFTER 20Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1121 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW
ENTERS LOWER MI. THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOW WITH A SECONDARY CENTER
LOCATED TO THE SE HAS KEPT THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS LED TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG
LINGERING LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
CWA...TEMPERATURES HOLDING AT OR BELOW 40 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
KEPT OUT OF THE AREA...ONSET OF PRECIP DELAYED OVER SE MI AS THE
SECONDARY LOW AND FRONT RAMPED UP OVER CENTRAL OHIO...AND CONCERNS
ABOUT THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE AS LACK OF MIXING WILL
MAKE IT INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT TO TAP INTO THE ELEVATED WINDS
ALOFT LEAVING US WITH MORE OF A PURE GRADIENT FLOW VS DOWNWARD
MIXING PLUS GRADIENT FLOW. WILL GIVE THE WINDS A CHANCE YET AS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL ENTER THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SECONDARY LOW PIVOTS UP AND AROUND
THE MAIN PRESSURE CENTER. IN ADDITION...GRADIENT FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH.
LOWERED POPS FOR EXTREME SE MI AS PRECIP SHIELD STRUGGLES TO FILL
IN COMPLETELY. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATE START WITH WAA AND EXCESSIVE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
PREVENTING THE SUN FROM ADDING MUCH TO THE CAUSE. CURRENT FOG
LAYER WILL GET SCOURED OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS PRECIP
INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND COLD FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALL IS QUIET TO BEGIN THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SETTLED
BETWEEN AN ACTIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND
ONGOING AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF INTEREST IS PRESENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN BARREN OF ANY ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES SHOW SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE ALONG A
LINE FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO FORT WAYNE AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING AS
ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE. BUT SO FAR THE
00Z NWP HAVE GIVEN FAR TOO MUCH RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY
WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER GRASP
ON THE SITUATION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE WITH THE LATTER GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNINSPIRING APPEARANCE ON RADAR. THUS, TRIMMED POPS BACK IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR LOW COVERAGE THROUGH 15Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY SEE A GLANCING BLOW AS
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD.
EXPANSION OF COVERAGE IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV
ANOMALY OVER MISSOURI WRAP INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING WILL BE AT THEIR GREATEST. HOWEVER,
ALL LOCATIONS CAN STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF 1.2+" PWATS.
SUPERPOSITION OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT AROUND 18Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THAT
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL EXIST, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN
ISOLATED AT BEST.
GOOD SIGNATURE IN THE HIGH RES MODELS OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, INDICATIVE OF AN AGGRESSIVE MASS
ADJUSTMENT TAKING PLACE. WHEN CONSIDERED ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND TIMING DURING PEAK HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO
MAXIMIZED MIXING DEPTHS, ADVISORY OR NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS
CERTAINLY SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL FROPA. THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE
APPRECIABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS
SOUTH. LIKEWISE, LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE A BIT OF A DELAY
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER WINDS FOR THIS REASON. COLD ADVECTION
WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
WINDS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 KTS BEING TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BY STRONG
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT FROM 275-285K.
ALL SURFACES WITHIN THIS 10K DEEP LAYER INTERSECT THE GROUND AND
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND COMPONENT TO
HELP MAXIMIZE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE STRONG WIND FIELD. COMBINED
WITH NAM PROGS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING WITHIN
THE MIXED LAYER IN SPITE OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP MIXING, A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS LIKE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION FOR AT LEAST THE 21-03Z PERIOD.
SAID ADVISORY WAS THEREFORE ISSUED BEGINNING WITH THE INITIAL FROPA
AND LASTING UNTIL COLD ADVECTION EASES AROUND MIDNIGHT.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEPART INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY AS LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC ADVANCING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TRAPPED UNDER A DEEP INVERSION SHOULD EQUATE TO
AMPLE CLOUD COVER SAT MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING TREND SAT AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN
WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS INTO THE 40S DESPITE A RATHER CHILLY START
TO THE DAY. A LINGERING NW GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER CAUSE RATHER BRISK
NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD SAT
NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT MINS
DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF SE MI. SOME MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS BY SUNDAY SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
SHOWN BY THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE...FEATURING A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WRN US AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTL AND
ERN US. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS
FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION SUNDAY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THERE ACTUALLY REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW
WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OVERSPREADS SE MI MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY NIGHT.
SEEING AS THIS SYSTEM WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GULF...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE DEFORMATION REGION AND THUS
HIGH POPS ARE JUSTIFIED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL HOLD WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN PRECIP TYPE AS ALL RAIN. THE GFS
DEEPENS THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
AND THUS HOLDS THE DEFORMATION FORCING OVER SE MI RIGHT INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS SOLUTIONS DOES OFFER THE POSSIBILITY THAT COOLING DUE
TO MELTING FROM PROLONGED PRECIP MAY CHANCE SOME LOCALS OVER TO SNOW
LATE MON NIGHT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS...SUPPORTING ALL RAIN AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN US
LONG WAVE RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL HOWEVER OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR
REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING TO NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM
AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ICY WATERS OF THE LAKES WILL INHIBIT THESE
STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE LAKE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTH OF THUNDER BAY WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND THUS MAKE SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
18Z. WINDS OVER LAKE HURON WILL THEN DECREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE SFC HIGH TRACKS OVERHEAD. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN LEAD TO A SHARP
INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THESE STRONGER WINDS...EXPECTED TO EXCEED
GALE FORCE AT TIMES...WILL FIRST REACH WRN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST
CLAIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER LAKE
HURON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON INTO SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-
MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
MIZ083...UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 4
PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON
INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
GALE WARNING...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
GALE WARNING...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
UPDATE.......DT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1121 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW
ENTERS LOWER MI. THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOW WITH A SECONDARY CENTER
LOCATED TO THE SE HAS KEPT THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS LED TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG
LINGERING LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
CWA...TEMPERATURES HOLDING AT OR BELOW 40 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
KEPT OUT OF THE AREA...ONSET OF PRECIP DELAYED OVER SE MI AS THE
SECONDARY LOW AND FRONT RAMPED UP OVER CENTRAL OHIO...AND CONCERNS
ABOUT THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE AS LACK OF MIXING WILL
MAKE IT INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT TO TAP INTO THE ELEVATED WINDS
ALOFT LEAVING US WITH MORE OF A PURE GRADIENT FLOW VS DOWNWARD
MIXING PLUS GRADIENT FLOW. WILL GIVE THE WINDS A CHANCE YET AS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL ENTER THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SECONDARY LOW PIVOTS UP AND AROUND
THE MAIN PRESSURE CENTER. IN ADDITION...GRADIENT FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH.
LOWERED POPS FOR EXTREME SE MI AS PRECIP SHIELD STRUGGLES TO FILL
IN COMPLETELY. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATE START WITH WAA AND EXCESSIVE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
PREVENTING THE SUN FROM ADDING MUCH TO THE CAUSE. CURRENT FOG
LAYER WILL GET SCOURED OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS PRECIP
INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND COLD FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALL IS QUIET TO BEGIN THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SETTLED
BETWEEN AN ACTIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND
ONGOING AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF INTEREST IS PRESENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN BARREN OF ANY ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES SHOW SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE ALONG A
LINE FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO FORT WAYNE AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING AS
ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE. BUT SO FAR THE
00Z NWP HAVE GIVEN FAR TOO MUCH RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY
WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER GRASP
ON THE SITUATION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE WITH THE LATTER GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNINSPIRING APPEARANCE ON RADAR. THUS, TRIMMED POPS BACK IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR LOW COVERAGE THROUGH 15Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY SEE A GLANCING BLOW AS
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD.
EXPANSION OF COVERAGE IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV
ANOMALY OVER MISSOURI WRAP INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING WILL BE AT THEIR GREATEST. HOWEVER,
ALL LOCATIONS CAN STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF 1.2+" PWATS.
SUPERPOSITION OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT AROUND 18Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THAT
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL EXIST, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN
ISOLATED AT BEST.
GOOD SIGNATURE IN THE HIGH RES MODELS OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, INDICATIVE OF AN AGGRESSIVE MASS
ADJUSTMENT TAKING PLACE. WHEN CONSIDERED ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND TIMING DURING PEAK HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO
MAXIMIZED MIXING DEPTHS, ADVISORY OR NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS
CERTAINLY SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL FROPA. THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE
APPRECIABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS
SOUTH. LIKEWISE, LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE A BIT OF A DELAY
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER WINDS FOR THIS REASON. COLD ADVECTION
WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
WINDS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 KTS BEING TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BY STRONG
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT FROM 275-285K.
ALL SURFACES WITHIN THIS 10K DEEP LAYER INTERSECT THE GROUND AND
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND COMPONENT TO
HELP MAXIMIZE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE STRONG WIND FIELD. COMBINED
WITH NAM PROGS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING WITHIN
THE MIXED LAYER IN SPITE OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP MIXING, A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS LIKE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION FOR AT LEAST THE 21-03Z PERIOD.
SAID ADVISORY WAS THEREFORE ISSUED BEGINNING WITH THE INITIAL FROPA
AND LASTING UNTIL COLD ADVECTION EASES AROUND MIDNIGHT.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEPART INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY AS LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC ADVANCING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TRAPPED UNDER A DEEP INVERSION SHOULD EQUATE TO
AMPLE CLOUD COVER SAT MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING TREND SAT AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN
WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS INTO THE 40S DESPITE A RATHER CHILLY START
TO THE DAY. A LINGERING NW GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER CAUSE RATHER BRISK
NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD SAT
NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT MINS
DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF SE MI. SOME MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS BY SUNDAY SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
SHOWN BY THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE...FEATURING A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WRN US AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTL AND
ERN US. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS
FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION SUNDAY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THERE ACTUALLY REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW
WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OVERSPREADS SE MI MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY NIGHT.
SEEING AS THIS SYSTEM WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GULF...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE DEFORMATION REGION AND THUS
HIGH POPS ARE JUSTIFIED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL HOLD WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN PRECIP TYPE AS ALL RAIN. THE GFS
DEEPENS THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
AND THUS HOLDS THE DEFORMATION FORCING OVER SE MI RIGHT INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS SOLUTIONS DOES OFFER THE POSSIBILITY THAT COOLING DUE
TO MELTING FROM PROLONGED PRECIP MAY CHANCE SOME LOCALS OVER TO SNOW
LATE MON NIGHT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS...SUPPORTING ALL RAIN AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN US
LONG WAVE RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL HOWEVER OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR
REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING TO NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM
AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ICY WATERS OF THE LAKES WILL INHIBIT THESE
STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE LAKE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTH OF THUNDER BAY WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND THUS MAKE SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
18Z. WINDS OVER LAKE HURON WILL THEN DECREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE SFC HIGH TRACKS OVERHEAD. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN LEAD TO A SHARP
INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THESE STRONGER WINDS...EXPECTED TO EXCEED
GALE FORCE AT TIMES...WILL FIRST REACH WRN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST
CLAIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER LAKE
HURON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON INTO SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1205 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
//DISCUSSION...
LOWER CEILING WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS AGAINST DRY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. IFR CEILING WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO DTW AT PRESS TIME TO GO WITH THAT IN THE FORECAST
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF ISSUANCE TIME. THE LOWER CEILING WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH FROM THERE AND VISIBILITY WILL FOLLOW
DOWNWARD AS RAIN INCREASES OVER THE REGION CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AT
THIS POINT, THUNDER IS MORE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A SOLID AREA OF RAIN FILLS IN
OVER SE MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AS RAIN COMBINES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WHICH WILL POINT TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND POST FRONT THAT WILL
HAVE GUST POTENTIAL TO 40 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5 KFT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS FROM
240 DEG FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-
MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
MIZ083...FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 4
PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON
INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......DRK
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1101 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SNOW CONTINUES HEAVY OVER THE WEST TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS
HAVE SEEN THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS STORM THUS FAR. SNOW AMOUNTS SO
FAR OVER THE WEST OF AT LEAST 10 INCHES IN MANY AREAS. PTYPE ISSUES
AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL HAS KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER CNTRL
CWA LESS THAN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME.
BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT CNTRL CWA INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. JUST
RECEIVED REPORT FROM SPOTTER NEAR NORWAY OF OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE
HOUR WITH THIS SNOW AS IT MOVED THROUGH. BASED ON NUMEROUS REPORTS
RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...THANKS TO EVERYONE FOR THOSE...WE HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON PTYPE. TURNS OUT THE RUC13 HAS DECENT HANDLE AS
WELL...SHOWING THE WARM LAYER AT 750MB COLLAPSING EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IS WHAT ON THE GROUND REPORTS AND 88D MQT DUAL
POL CC DATA INDICATE. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG WI BORDER AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN. CLOSER TO
LK SUPERIOR AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CWA...EXPECT TOTALS INTO THIS EVENING STILL IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH
RANGE. APPEARS THE MOST SNOW FROM HERE ON OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NCNTRL CWA...BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES. WOULD
IMAGINE UPSLOPE AREAS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL STILL SEE TOTALS OVER
A FOOT LOCALLY.
NO CHANGES TO HAZARDS FOR NOW. TWEAKED WORDING TO DOWNPLAY ICE/SLEET
AND HIT UP THE SNOW MORE. ALSO UPDATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN GRIDS
AND WSW STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
KEPT SPIRIT OF PREVIOUS FORECAST UNCHANGED AS ONGOING WINTER STORM
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
LITTLE LESS THAN RUNS FROM 12 HOURS AGO...SO LOWERED QPF/SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY AS HEAVY PRECIP AND SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR LIKELY IN AREAS EXPECTED SNOW. THE ONLY AREA NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE MOSTLY SNOW IS OVER THE ERN U.P. AND AREAS SE OF A LINE FROM
GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS AS ELEVATED WARM NOSE MOVES INTO THESE AREAS.
ON THE N/NW FRINGES OF THE WARM NOSE...LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH FOR PRIMARILY SLEET THIS MORNING WHILE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY THE PRECIP WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO RAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING. BY 18Z TODAY...COLDER AIR MOVES IN THAT WILL TURN
LIQUID PRECIP TO SNOW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH STILL EXPECTED OVER SRN DELTA AND SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /INCLUDING WHAT HAS BEEN
SEEN SO FAR SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-18 INCHES
IN THE ALL SNOW AREA NW OF A LINE FROM GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS...WITH
THE HIGHEST OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE WITH VERY
DRY AIR MOVES TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z SAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE TROFS IN THE PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A
TENDENCY FOR RIDGING OVER WRN NAMERICA OR ALONG THE W COAST AND
TROFFING OVER ERN NAMERICA. RESULT WILL BE FLUCTUATION OF TEMPS
BTWN ABOVE AND BLO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO. AFTER THE
ONGOING STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENTS DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA MOVES E AND THEN LIFTS NE TO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES.
COMPARED TO TODAY...THE WEATHER SAT WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT AS
A VERY DRY AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE E EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTN...BUT OTHERWISE...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE BRIGHT SUNSHINE ON THE FRESH SNOW
COVER. WITH THE EVER INCREASING MID DAY SUN ANGLE NOW THAT WE ARE
INTO EARLY APR...THE FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RESPOND
NICELY. OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
30S TO MID 40S. IT WILL BE COOLEST (LWR 30S) OVER THE E NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR UNDER NW WINDS OFF THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE.
SAT NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. ASSOCIATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTENING TAKING PLACE AT LOW LEVELS
TO YIELD SOME PCPN LATER IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NW FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS COULD BE A MIX OF
SNOW/FZRA/RA. ONLY SCHC POPS WILL BE UTILIZED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN WHETHER ANY PCPN WILL REACH THE SFC.
LOW PCPN CHC WILL SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA SUN AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHIFTS E. WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN PTYPE
CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO AT LEAST THE 40S ACROSS THE FCST
AREA (SOME LWR 50S ALONG WI BORDER).
SUN NIGHT/MON...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SRN END OF THE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO CA. SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN
AND THEN LIFT NE SUN NIGHT/MON IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER
WRN NAMERICA WHICH FORCES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHARPLY SSE THRU THE WRN
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE WRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
DISPLACED TOO FAR W OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TO PHASE WITH IT AND FORCE
IT FAR ENOUGH N TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON UPPER MI. WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF AXIS...THERE MAY BE SOME -RA...WITH -FZRA
ALSO POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
AS PTYPE MON NIGHT. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. NEXT SET OF SHORTWAVES
TRACK ESE INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED NIGHT/THU. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN INTO THE AREA LATER WED
INTO WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT`S UNCERTAIN HOW FAR S THE COLUMN WILL
SATURATE UNDER THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE GFS KEEPS WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PCPN WELL N OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS PCPN ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE NEEDED GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY (LOWEST POPS SW AND HIGHEST POPS NE). GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE WARMING (850MB TEMPS RISE TO 4 TO 9C ECMWF OR 10 TO 13C
GFS)...PTYPE WILL BE RAIN...THOUGH SOME -FZRA MAY OCCUR OVER THE E
WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL JUST BLO FREEZING. WITH SFC LOW PASSING BY TO
THE N...COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH POTENTIAL OF
SOME -SHRA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXPECT SOME VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS DUE TO NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
COMING IN WAVES TODAY...BUT OVERALL POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. DRY AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BE
IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER N MO WILL MOVE TO S LAKE MI BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...ACROSS N LOWER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT ALONG THE
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NE TO N GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY TO
EXPAND OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE N AND NNW.
WINDS FROM MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
30KTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW ACROSS S HUDSON BAY WILL ALLOW A BRIEF
TROUGH TO EXTEND OVER FAR N LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN LOW
PRESSURE NEAR KY MONDAY MORNING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT THE TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO FILL SLIGHTLY ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>011-013-014-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ246>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
655 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT SPARSE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SHOWERS AT ALL TAF SITES. THE GREATEST
PERSISTENCE AND DURATION ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF KPTK WHERE MOISTURE
AND FORCING WILL BE GREATEST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN WORK THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A VERY
LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND CONCERNS WILL LIKEWISE TRANSITION FROM WIND
FROM WIND SHEAR TO STRONG CROSS WINDS, ESPECIALLY 21Z-03Z WHEN GUSTS
MAY EXCEED 40 KTS. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO FALL BELOW 30 KNOTS.
FOR DTW...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
DURING THE MORNING. FRONTAL PASSAGE ESTIMATED TO OCCUR AT THE
AIRFIELD AROUND 18Z WILL FORCE WIND TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AND RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION TOWARD GUSTY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS BETWEEN 20Z-01Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5 KFT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM
250-260 DEGREES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALL IS QUIET TO BEGIN THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SETTLED
BETWEEN AN ACTIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND
ONGOING AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF INTEREST IS PRESENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN BARREN OF ANY ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES SHOW SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE ALONG A
LINE FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO FORT WAYNE AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING AS
ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE. BUT SO FAR THE
00Z NWP HAVE GIVEN FAR TOO MUCH RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY
WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER GRASP
ON THE SITUATION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE WITH THE LATTER GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNINSPIRING APPEARANCE ON RADAR. THUS, TRIMMED POPS BACK IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR LOW COVERAGE THROUGH 15Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY SEE A GLANCING BLOW AS
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD.
EXPANSION OF COVERAGE IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV
ANOMALY OVER MISSOURI WRAP INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING WILL BE AT THEIR GREATEST. HOWEVER,
ALL LOCATIONS CAN STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF 1.2+" PWATS.
SUPERPOSITION OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT AROUND 18Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THAT
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL EXIST, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN
ISOLATED AT BEST.
GOOD SIGNATURE IN THE HIGH RES MODELS OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, INDICATIVE OF AN AGGRESSIVE MASS
ADJUSTMENT TAKING PLACE. WHEN CONSIDERED ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND TIMING DURING PEAK HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO
MAXIMIZED MIXING DEPTHS, ADVISORY OR NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS
CERTAINLY SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL FROPA. THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE
APPRECIABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS
SOUTH. LIKEWISE, LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE A BIT OF A DELAY
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER WINDS FOR THIS REASON. COLD ADVECTION
WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
WINDS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 KTS BEING TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BY STRONG
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT FROM 275-285K.
ALL SURFACES WITHIN THIS 10K DEEP LAYER INTERSECT THE GROUND AND
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND COMPONENT TO
HELP MAXIMIZE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE STRONG WIND FIELD. COMBINED
WITH NAM PROGS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING WITHIN
THE MIXED LAYER IN SPITE OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP MIXING, A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS LIKE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION FOR AT LEAST THE 21-03Z PERIOD.
SAID ADVISORY WAS THEREFORE ISSUED BEGINNING WITH THE INITIAL FROPA
AND LASTING UNTIL COLD ADVECTION EASES AROUND MIDNIGHT.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEPART INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY AS LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC ADVANCING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TRAPPED UNDER A DEEP INVERSION SHOULD EQUATE TO
AMPLE CLOUD COVER SAT MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING TREND SAT AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN
WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS INTO THE 40S DESPITE A RATHER CHILLY START
TO THE DAY. A LINGERING NW GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER CAUSE RATHER BRISK
NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD SAT
NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT MINS
DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF SE MI. SOME MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS BY SUNDAY SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
SHOWN BY THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE...FEATURING A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WRN US AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTL AND
ERN US. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS
FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION SUNDAY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THERE ACTUALLY REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW
WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OVERSPREADS SE MI MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY NIGHT.
SEEING AS THIS SYSTEM WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GULF...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE DEFORMATION REGION AND THUS
HIGH POPS ARE JUSTIFIED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL HOLD WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN PRECIP TYPE AS ALL RAIN. THE GFS
DEEPENS THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
AND THUS HOLDS THE DEFORMATION FORCING OVER SE MI RIGHT INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS SOLUTIONS DOES OFFER THE POSSIBILITY THAT COOLING DUE
TO MELTING FROM PROLONGED PRECIP MAY CHANCE SOME LOCALS OVER TO SNOW
LATE MON NIGHT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS...SUPPORTING ALL RAIN AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN US
LONG WAVE RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL HOWEVER OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR
REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING TO NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM
AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ICY WATERS OF THE LAKES WILL INHIBIT THESE
STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE LAKE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTH OF THUNDER BAY WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND THUS MAKE SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
18Z. WINDS OVER LAKE HURON WILL THEN DECREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE SFC HIGH TRACKS OVERHEAD. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN LEAD TO A SHARP
INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THESE STRONGER WINDS...EXPECTED TO EXCEED
GALE FORCE AT TIMES...WILL FIRST REACH WRN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST
CLAIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER LAKE
HURON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON INTO SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-
MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
MIZ083...FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 4
PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON
INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALL IS QUIET TO BEGIN THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SETTLED
BETWEEN AN ACTIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND
ONGOING AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF INTEREST IS PRESENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN BARREN OF ANY ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES SHOW SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE ALONG A
LINE FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO FORT WAYNE AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING AS
ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE. BUT SO FAR THE
00Z NWP HAVE GIVEN FAR TOO MUCH RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY
WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER GRASP
ON THE SITUATION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE WITH THE LATTER GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNINSPIRING APPEARANCE ON RADAR. THUS, TRIMMED POPS BACK IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR LOW COVERAGE THROUGH 15Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY SEE A GLANCING BLOW AS
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD.
EXPANSION OF COVERAGE IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV
ANOMALY OVER MISSOURI WRAP INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING WILL BE AT THEIR GREATEST. HOWEVER,
ALL LOCATIONS CAN STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF 1.2+" PWATS.
SUPERPOSITION OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT AROUND 18Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THAT
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL EXIST, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN
ISOLATED AT BEST.
GOOD SIGNATURE IN THE HIGH RES MODELS OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, INDICATIVE OF AN AGGRESSIVE MASS
ADJUSTMENT TAKING PLACE. WHEN CONSIDERED ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND TIMING DURING PEAK HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO
MAXIMIZED MIXING DEPTHS, ADVISORY OR NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS
CERTAINLY SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL FROPA. THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE
APPRECIABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS
SOUTH. LIKEWISE, LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE A BIT OF A DELAY
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER WINDS FOR THIS REASON. COLD ADVECTION
WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
WINDS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 KTS BEING TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BY STRONG
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT FROM 275-285K.
ALL SURFACES WITHIN THIS 10K DEEP LAYER INTERSECT THE GROUND AND
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND COMPONENT TO
HELP MAXIMIZE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE STRONG WIND FIELD. COMBINED
WITH NAM PROGS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING WITHIN
THE MIXED LAYER IN SPITE OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP MIXING, A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS LIKE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION FOR AT LEAST THE 21-03Z PERIOD.
SAID ADVISORY WAS THEREFORE ISSUED BEGINNING WITH THE INITIAL FROPA
AND LASTING UNTIL COLD ADVECTION EASES AROUND MIDNIGHT.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEPART INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY AS LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC ADVANCING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TRAPPED UNDER A DEEP INVERSION SHOULD EQUATE TO
AMPLE CLOUD COVER SAT MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING TREND SAT AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN
WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS INTO THE 40S DESPITE A RATHER CHILLY START
TO THE DAY. A LINGERING NW GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER CAUSE RATHER BRISK
NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD SAT
NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT MINS
DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF SE MI. SOME MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS BY SUNDAY SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
SHOWN BY THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE...FEATURING A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WRN US AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTL AND
ERN US. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS
FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION SUNDAY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THERE ACTUALLY REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW
WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OVERSPREADS SE MI MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY NIGHT.
SEEING AS THIS SYSTEM WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GULF...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE DEFORMATION REGION AND THUS
HIGH POPS ARE JUSTIFIED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL HOLD WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN PRECIP TYPE AS ALL RAIN. THE GFS
DEEPENS THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
AND THUS HOLDS THE DEFORMATION FORCING OVER SE MI RIGHT INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS SOLUTIONS DOES OFFER THE POSSIBILITY THAT COOLING DUE
TO MELTING FROM PROLONGED PRECIP MAY CHANCE SOME LOCALS OVER TO SNOW
LATE MON NIGHT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS...SUPPORTING ALL RAIN AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN US
LONG WAVE RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL HOWEVER OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR
REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING TO NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM
AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ICY WATERS OF THE LAKES WILL INHIBIT THESE
STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE LAKE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTH OF THUNDER BAY WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND THUS MAKE SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
18Z. WINDS OVER LAKE HURON WILL THEN DECREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE SFC HIGH TRACKS OVERHEAD. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN LEAD TO A SHARP
INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THESE STRONGER WINDS...EXPECTED TO EXCEED
GALE FORCE AT TIMES...WILL FIRST REACH WRN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST
CLAIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER LAKE
HURON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON INTO SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1205 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
//DISCUSSION...
LOWER CEILING WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS AGAINST DRY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. IFR CEILING WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO DTW AT PRESS TIME TO GO WITH THAT IN THE FORECAST
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF ISSUANCE TIME. THE LOWER CEILING WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH FROM THERE AND VISIBILITY WILL FOLLOW
DOWNWARD AS RAIN INCREASES OVER THE REGION CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AT
THIS POINT, THUNDER IS MORE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A SOLID AREA OF RAIN FILLS IN
OVER SE MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AS RAIN COMBINES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WHICH WILL POINT TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND POST FRONT THAT WILL
HAVE GUST POTENTIAL TO 40 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5 KFT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS FROM
240 DEG FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-
MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
MIZ083...FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 4
PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON
INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
937 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WAA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR WAS SHOWING TWO AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE FIRST STRETCHED FROM THE
MOOSE LAKE AREA...SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAYWARD. THIS WAS LIGHT RAIN.
ANOTHER AREA HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM BIG FORK EAST TO COOK/ORR
TO ELY. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE RAIN INITIALLY. PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EITHER A WARM LAYER
ENOUGH TO MELT ANY ICE OR A COLUMN NOT SATURATED ENOUGH FOR MUCH
ICE. THE RAP MAX T OVER THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET SHOWS
MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 2C. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE
THE MAIN FACTOR IN WHETHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
FALLS. WE DID EXPAND THE AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT TO INCLUDE MORE OF FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. KPBH WAS 34F OVER 25F AT 02Z. WE
DO EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF H85 WEAK SHORT WAVE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE ONSHORE WINDS KEPT
READINGS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 30S.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE EVENING...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO NW MINNESOTA. THIS WAVE
IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT THERE IS SUFFICIENT WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE BROAD BRUSH SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
900 PM. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS FOG FOR ALL ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND CALM WINDS. MOST AREAS
CAN EXPECT A BATCH OF -SHRA OR -DZ OVERNIGHT WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. LOCATIONS IN THE MN
ARROWHEAD MAY SEE GREATER QPF...AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...AS
WELL AS A SMALL THREAT FOR VERY LIGHT -FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO ICE
ACCUM IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY -FZDZ...WITH COOLER READINGS
ARRIVING IN THE DRIER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE AFTER THE
PRECIP ENDS. THE LOW POPS AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER OVER
THE NRN WISCONSIN AND SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ZONES INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WE ARE DEFINITELY ENTERING INTO THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE WE START TO
SEE A LOT OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE CASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND PERHAPS BEYOND IN SOME OF
THE TIME PERIODS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF LOWS CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. WE WILL
ALSO WRESTLE WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT SMALL QPF BULLSEYES RANDOMLY
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL GENERALLY KEEP MOST PERIODS DRY FOR NOW.
COULD SEE HAVING TO ADD SOME SMALL POPS AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE AT
SOME POINT...BUT FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE MODEL
RUNS AND AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS TO HIT ANY PARTICULAR
PRECIPITATION AREAS IN THE GRIDS. HAVE ADDED POPS TO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SO WE MAY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO BE ABLE TO HOLD MORE MOISTURE FROM
THE SPRING SNOWMELT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK SHOULD BE LARGELY
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG...WE COULD SEE SOME READINGS A BIT HIGHER THAN
THAT. IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS PEGGING A HIGH TEMP AROUND 70 FOR THE
KBRD AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THEY WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COULD BE A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW POSSIBLY TOWARD THE NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD
THEN COOL A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEAST MANITOBA INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. BROAD WAA WAS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. ANOTHER WAVE WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS WERE JUST MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND WE
EXPECT SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. MOST
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER
TONIGHT OVER THE ARROWHEAD...AND PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WE LIMITED THE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL MAKE SHORTER TERM UPDATES BASED ON LATEST
CONDITIONS.
A BIGGER CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL CEILINGS AND VSBYS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE REGARDING THE EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING
LATER THIS EVENING. THE NAM HAS BEEN MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ALREADY
IS TOO HIGH ON ITS LOW LEVEL RH. THE HRRR/RAP DELAY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CEILINGS UNTIL MUCH LATER TONIGHT AND ALSO HAVE
LOWER COVERAGE. WE DELAYED THE IFR/LIFT CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS
UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONS AND ADJUST AS THINGS BECOME CLEARER. THE
THREAT FOR LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS MAY BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WINDS INCREASES WITH AN ILL DEFINED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL OCCUR AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 45 30 47 / 30 20 10 20
INL 28 49 29 46 / 30 10 10 20
BRD 30 50 32 51 / 20 10 10 20
HYR 32 49 30 49 / 30 20 10 20
ASX 32 46 29 46 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
346 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT BROUGHT AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS A FOOT AND
A HALF TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT. A GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BAND OF SNOW HAD SET UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD AND PINE COUNTY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE MECHANISM RESPONSIBLE APPEARS TO BE SHUTTING
OFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REMOVE MORE COUNTIES FROM THE
WARNING. WILL HANG ON TO THE WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF NW
WI...SPECIFICALLY BAYFIELD AND SAWYER COUNTY EASTWARD. HEAVY SNOW
RECENTLY AT THE IRONWOOD STATION...WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT
ASHLAND. THINK THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO MORE IN SPOTS FOR THE
EVENING...WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE. THE HRRR ACTUALLY CUTS THINGS OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY
THOUGH THIS EVENING SO THAT WOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS IF THINGS SHUT OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL ALSO HANG ON TO SOME FLURRIES FURTHER
WESTWARD AS SOME DIURNAL CLOUD COVER HAD DEVELOPED AND BROUGHT
SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.
ONCE THE SNOW COMES TO AN END TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE
TEENS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTH.
THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF MELTING ON SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S. ONLY
EXCEPTION IN TERMS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
OVERALL PATTERN THIS PERIOD FEATURES A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED
NEAR FRNTL BDRY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS IT INITIALLY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO CWA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY SO LOW POPS REMAIN IN FCST
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THE OVERALL FORCING IS QUITE WEAK AND DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A DRY SPELL WILL UNFOLD
TUES/WED BEFORE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM MOVES ACROS THE REGION WED
NIGHT/THUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTN
WITH VFR AT MN SITES. KHYR WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING. AREA
OF LOW STRATUS WEST OF CWA IS FCST TO DISSIPATE IN NEXT 6 HRS
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR KBRD FOR POTENTIAL AMENDMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 16 39 28 44 / 10 0 20 10
INL 14 45 26 46 / 0 0 20 10
BRD 16 45 29 48 / 0 0 10 20
HYR 12 42 29 47 / 20 0 20 20
ASX 14 40 28 44 / 60 0 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ008-009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR WIZ002>004.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SFC LOW AT 3 AM WAS CENTERED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND WILL CONTINUE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...ENDING UP OVER NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS
EVENING. UPPER LOW TRAILS THE SFC LOW BACK ACROSS CENTRAL IA. AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW...SAW A STRONG DRY SLOT AND PV ANOMALY WORK UP INTO
SRN MN OVER TO WRN WI. THIS PV FEATURE HELPED ENHANCE FGEN IN THE
H7-H6 LAYER...WHICH RESULTED IN AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP
LAST NIGHT FROM ABOUT SPRINGFIELD...THROUGH CENTRAL MCLEOD
COUNTY...UP THE HENNEPIN/WRIGHT COUNTY LINE AND ON UP TOWARD
PRINCETON. WE GOT A REPORT OF 10 INCHES ALREADY FROM HUTCHINSON AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOMEONE IN THIS BAND PICKED UP A FOOT
OVERNIGHT. OVERLAYING RAP H7-H6 FGEN ON TO RADAR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...YOU COULD SEE THIS BAND START TO WEAKEN AROUND 8Z AS THE
FGEN STARTED TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...AS THIS AREA OF FGEN WAS
WEAKENING...THE RAP HAS BEEN SHOWING ANOTHER BAND OF ENHANCED FGEN
IN THE H7-H6 LAYER DEVELOPING FROM ALBERT LEA UP TOWARD RICE LAKE.
SINCE 3 AM...THIS SECOND ZONE OF FGEN HAS SHOWN RADAR RETURNS/SNOW
RAPIDLY BLOSSOM AND TRIED TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THE RAP/HRRR WITH A
SECONDARY BAND OF ENHANCED QPF SNOW COMING OUT OF SE MN AND UP ALONG
THE MN/WI BORDER. FOR THIS NEWER BAND OF SNOW...WITH THE SFC LOW NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE IT WILL NOT LINGER AS LONG
AS THE MAIN BAND OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD STILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IT.
MAIN CHANGE IN THE GRIDS WITH POPS WAS TO SPEED UP THEIR DEPARTURE
OUT OF THE AREA...BRINGING IT IN LINE WITH THE HRRR/RAP. EXPECT BACK
EDGE OF SNOW TO CLEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AND WILL
EXIT THE ERN CWA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. FOR THE EXISTING WINTER
HEADLINES...CHANGED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED ENDING OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH AREAS WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES NOW EXPIRING
AT 15Z...COUNTIES AROUND THE METRO ENDING AT 18Z AND WRN WI STILL
ENDING AT 00Z. IN ALL CASES...THIS IS PROBABLY STILL A LITTLE LONGER
THAN NECESSARY...BUT WE CAN JUST CANCEL COUNTIES EARLY AS SNOW ENDS
AS WE HAVE BEEN DOING ALL NIGHT. THESE NEW END TIMES JUST GET THE
END TIMES FOR THE HEADLINES CLOSER TO WHAT REALITY WILL LIKELY BE.
OTHER MINOR CHANGE MADE IN THE GRIDS WAS TO NUDGE WINDS SPEEDS/GUSTS
DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS OUR GRIDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT
STRONG ALL NIGHT. JUST BROUGHT SPEEDS MORE IN LINE WITH BIAS
CORRECTED SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS. STILL SHOULD GET SOME
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH IN SC/SE MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS IN SRN WI. FORTUNATELY...WET/HEAVY OF NATURE OF THE SNOW
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP HOLD IT TO THE GROUND...SO CONTINUED TO NOT
MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS.
PERHAPS BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS WITH CLOUD
COVER TRENDS. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING THINGS OUT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A QUICK LOOK AT SATELLITE
THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID BANK OF STRATUS IN PLACE ALL THE WAY BACK
TO THE AXIS OF THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. SO FOR
GRIDS...WENT CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH CLEARING OF
SKIES TODAY...DELAYING THAT UNTIL THE SFC RIDGE STARTS MOVING INTO
WRN MN AND KICKING OUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE CLEARING STARTS...IT SHOULD MOVE PRETTY QUICK TONIGHT. WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND...CONTINUED
TO GO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CWA
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WERE KEPT TO THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN FA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN EXPANDED CWA
WIDE FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG EVENT
WITH ONLY MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN PASSING TO THE EAST DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH LOWS/HIGHS ACTUALLY
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. WEDNESDAY WAS A DAY OF INTEREST WITH
BOTH THE EC AND GFS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 12
DEG C ACROSS WESTERN MN. MIX DOWN OF THE GFS FROM 900MB INDICATED
HIGHS NEAR 70 FOR THE CANBY AND MADISON AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MN.
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES YIELDED AN UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE MID/LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES OVER THE CR EXTEND
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...TIME OVERNIGHT WAS SPENT HELPING THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER WITH THE ONGOING SNOW EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
TWO PROBLEMS AT HAND THIS TAF PERIOD ARE TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
SNOW OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WHEN DO CIGS GO VFR. BACK
EDGE OF PRECIP STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE WRN TWIN CITIES METRO
AND WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN WI AROUND 15Z. TRENDED TIMING FOR END
OF SNOW TOWARD THE HRRR. VSBYS WITH THIS LAST BAND HAVE BEEN
MAINLY 1-2SM...SO NOT EXPECTING MANY MORE 1/2SM TYPE SNOWS. CLOUD
COVER IS A BIT MORE TRICKY AS STRATUS EXTENDS BACK INTO THE WRN
DAKOTAS...BUT THE HRRR IS DRIVING A CLEARING DOWN BEHIND THE SNOW
LATER TODAY. FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE GFSLAMP WITH MVFR
CIGS HANGING BACK A WHILE...BUT AS I WRITE THIS...CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO CLEAR OUT UP TOWARD PARK RAPIDS AND BEMIDJI...SO THE
HRRR COULD VERY WELL BE ON TO SOMETHING. FOR TONIGHT...THE SFC
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE SKIES AND GIVE
US LGT AND VRB WINDS...THOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD
THE SSW WEST OVER WRN MN LATE TONIGHT.
KMSP...WILL HAVE ONE MORE IFR VIS BAND OF SNOW WORK THROUGH THE
AIRPORT THIS MORNING. BASED ON ITS CURRENT SPEED...WILL BE EAST OF
MSP BETWEEN 1300 AND 1330Z. AFTER THAT...SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER
OFF AND SHOULD BE DOWN BY NOON. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR SAYING IT WILL CLEAR OUT TEMPORARILY
AROUND 19Z BEFORE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN CLOSER TO 00Z. FOR
NOW...STUCK WITH THE GFSLAMP STORY OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING THROUGH
00Z. NO ISSUES EXPECTED WITH REST OF TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-RASN LATE. WINDS SW 5-10KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR/-RA. WINDS N 10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ052-
053-060>063-068>070-076-077.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ049.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ044-045-
050-051-058-059-065>067-073>075-082-083-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ084-
085-092-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ078.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ014>016-
023>025-027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ026-
028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
423 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SFC LOW AT 3 AM WAS CENTERED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND WILL CONTINUE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...ENDING UP OVER NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS
EVENING. UPPER LOW TRAILS THE SFC LOW BACK ACROSS CENTRAL IA. AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW...SAW A STRONG DRY SLOT AND PV ANOMALY WORK UP INTO
SRN MN OVER TO WRN WI. THIS PV FEATURE HELPED ENHANCE FGEN IN THE
H7-H6 LAYER...WHICH RESULTED IN AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP
LAST NIGHT FROM ABOUT SPRINGFIELD...THROUGH CENTRAL MCLEOD
COUNTY...UP THE HENNEPIN/WRIGHT COUNTY LINE AND ON UP TOWARD
PRINCETON. WE GOT A REPORT OF 10 INCHES ALREADY FROM HUTCHINSON AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOMEONE IN THIS BAND PICKED UP A FOOT
OVERNIGHT. OVERLAYING RAP H7-H6 FGEN ON TO RADAR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...YOU COULD SEE THIS BAND START TO WEAKEN AROUND 8Z AS THE
FGEN STARTED TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...AS THIS AREA OF FGEN WAS
WEAKENING...THE RAP HAS BEEN SHOWING ANOTHER BAND OF ENHANCED FGEN
IN THE H7-H6 LAYER DEVELOPING FROM ALBERT LEA UP TOWARD RICE LAKE.
SINCE 3 AM...THIS SECOND ZONE OF FGEN HAS SHOWN RADAR RETURNS/SNOW
RAPIDLY BLOSSOM AND TRIED TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THE RAP/HRRR WITH A
SECONDARY BAND OF ENHANCED QPF SNOW COMING OUT OF SE MN AND UP ALONG
THE MN/WI BORDER. FOR THIS NEWER BAND OF SNOW...WITH THE SFC LOW NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE IT WILL NOT LINGER AS LONG
AS THE MAIN BAND OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD STILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IT.
MAIN CHANGE IN THE GRIDS WITH POPS WAS TO SPEED UP THEIR DEPARTURE
OUT OF THE AREA...BRINGING IT IN LINE WITH THE HRRR/RAP. EXPECT BACK
EDGE OF SNOW TO CLEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AND WILL
EXIT THE ERN CWA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. FOR THE EXISTING WINTER
HEADLINES...CHANGED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED ENDING OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH AREAS WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES NOW EXPIRING
AT 15Z...COUNTIES AROUND THE METRO ENDING AT 18Z AND WRN WI STILL
ENDING AT 00Z. IN ALL CASES...THIS IS PROBABLY STILL A LITTLE LONGER
THAN NECESSARY...BUT WE CAN JUST CANCEL COUNTIES EARLY AS SNOW ENDS
AS WE HAVE BEEN DOING ALL NIGHT. THESE NEW END TIMES JUST GET THE
END TIMES FOR THE HEADLINES CLOSER TO WHAT REALITY WILL LIKELY BE.
OTHER MINOR CHANGE MADE IN THE GRIDS WAS TO NUDGE WINDS SPEEDS/GUSTS
DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS OUR GRIDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT
STRONG ALL NIGHT. JUST BROUGHT SPEEDS MORE IN LINE WITH BIAS
CORRECTED SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS. STILL SHOULD GET SOME
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH IN SC/SE MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS IN SRN WI. FORTUNATELY...WET/HEAVY OF NATURE OF THE SNOW
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP HOLD IT TO THE GROUND...SO CONTINUED TO NOT
MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS.
PERHAPS BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS WITH CLOUD
COVER TRENDS. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING THINGS OUT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A QUICK LOOK AT SATELLITE
THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID BANK OF STRATUS IN PLACE ALL THE WAY BACK
TO THE AXIS OF THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. SO FOR
GRIDS...WENT CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH CLEARING OF
SKIES TODAY...DELAYING THAT UNTIL THE SFC RIDGE STARTS MOVING INTO
WRN MN AND KICKING OUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE CLEARING STARTS...IT SHOULD MOVE PRETTY QUICK TONIGHT. WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND...CONTINUED
TO GO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CWA
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WERE KEPT TO THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN FA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN EXPANDED CWA
WIDE FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG EVENT
WITH ONLY MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN PASSING TO THE EAST DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH LOWS/HIGHS ACTUALLY
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. WEDNESDAY WAS A DAY OF INTEREST WITH
BOTH THE EC AND GFS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 12
DEG C ACROSS WESTERN MN. MIX DOWN OF THE GFS FROM 900MB INDICATED
HIGHS NEAR 70 FOR THE CANBY AND MADISON AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MN.
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES YIELDED AN UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE MID/LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES OVER THE CR EXTEND
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...TIME OVERNIGHT WAS SPENT HELPING THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER WITH THE ONGOING SNOW EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SNOW STILL TRENDING AS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SNOW
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR MIXING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD GET A LITTLE -FZDZ OR LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING AS THE
SNOW LOSES INTENSITY AND REFOCUSES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
KMSP...
SNOW RATES WILL IMPROVE NEAR THE MORNING RUSH...BUT THERE IS STILL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFT CONDITIONS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS
THE SNOW BECOMES LIGHTER THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO MIX IN AS WELL THIS MORNING. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
FOR LIFTING CEILINGS BY THE EVENING RUSH TODAY. THE MORNING
COMMUTE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED...HOWEVER...AT LEAST THE
SNOW RATES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN EARLY TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-RASN. WINDS SW 5-10KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR/-RA. WINDS N 10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ052-
053-060>063-068>070-076-077.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ049.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ044-045-
050-051-058-059-065>067-073>075-082-083-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ084-
085-092-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ078.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ014>016-
023>025-027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ026-
028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
855 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
FOG APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AND WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE PARAMETERS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AND
DEACTIVATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM OUR WEBSITE. REST
OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO SET UP OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING...MAINLY
FROM BAKER SOUTHWARD TO ALZADA. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BREAKING
UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
MOVES. HRRR ALSO INDICATING FOG TO BREAK UP BY 15Z. WEAK GAP FLOW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA. SURFACE
TROUGH JUST WEST OF BILLINGS IS CAUSING PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF
LIVINGSTON WHILE WEAK PRESSURE RISES WERE NOTED OVER YELLOWSTONE
PARK. THIS IS ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH IN LIVINGSTON.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES CYCLONIC. THIS FLOW
WILL ALLOW SEVERAL MORE WAVES TO DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
SHORT WAVE TOMORROW WILL BE MORE VIGOROUS THAN TODAYS WAVE AND
HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY. WAVE WILL BE FAST MOVING AND ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/S RUNS...THE MODELS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN UNTIL WED. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED WILL
FEATURE UNSETTLED PERIODS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON SUN
THROUGH EARLY MON...A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. BASED ON THE CAPE FORECASTS...THIS WAVE
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A CHANCE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL WAIT TIL THIS PERIOD GETS
CLOSER BEFORE ADDING ANY THUNDER. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BASED ON MIXING TO
700 MB ON TUE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 70 DEGREES IN
MANY AREAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE TOWARD
THE AREA ON WED...BUT THE ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE GFS DELAYED
THE FRONT UNTIL WED NIGHT. BASED ON THIS TIMING UNCERTAINTY...WENT
WITH A MIX OF THE CONSALL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO UNCERTAIN FOR WED SO WENT WITH A GUIDANCE
COMPROMISE FOR THOSE AS WELL. FOR THU INTO FRI...THE ECMWF TRIED
TO REBUILD A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAD AN UNSETTLED W
TO NW FLOW. GIVEN THIS CONTINUED PATTERN UNCERTAINTY...WENT WITH
MODEL COMPROMISES FOR THE FORECAST. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD E TO
A RED LODGE TO KBIL TO FORSYTH LINE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN SNOW
SHOWERS MIX WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION OVER THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NE BIG HORNS WILL HAVE LOCALIZED OBSCURATION
LATE TONIGHT. ARTHUR/HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 035/053 035/052 035/058 038/070 043/066 040/060
0/B 22/W 34/W 32/W 01/U 01/B 21/B
LVM 055 034/050 034/049 033/054 036/064 040/064 038/058
2/W 32/W 36/W 22/W 01/N 12/W 22/W
HDN 055 030/054 031/055 034/060 034/071 039/068 038/060
0/B 12/W 34/W 32/W 01/B 02/W 21/B
MLS 054 031/055 032/054 033/056 033/070 041/068 038/058
0/B 12/W 23/W 22/W 01/B 01/U 21/B
4BQ 053 030/055 031/055 032/056 032/070 038/067 036/058
0/U 02/W 33/W 32/W 01/B 11/U 21/B
BHK 048 029/054 030/055 031/052 030/066 039/065 036/055
0/B 11/B 23/W 22/W 01/B 01/U 21/B
SHR 054 028/052 030/052 031/054 032/067 037/066 036/058
0/U 02/W 33/W 32/W 01/B 11/U 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
257 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO SET UP OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING...MAINLY
FROM BAKER SOUTHWARD TO ALZADA. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BREAKING
UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
MOVES. HRRR ALSO INDICATING FOG TO BREAK UP BY 15Z. WEAK GAP FLOW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA. SURFACE
TROUGH JUST WEST OF BILLINGS IS CAUSING PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF
LIVINGSTON WHILE WEAK PRESSURE RISES WERE NOTED OVER YELLOWSTONE
PARK. THIS IS ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH IN LIVINGSTON.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES CYCLONIC. THIS FLOW
WILL ALLOW SEVERAL MORE WAVES TO DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
SHORT WAVE TOMORROW WILL BE MORE VIGOROUS THAN TODAYS WAVE AND
HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY. WAVE WILL BE FAST MOVING AND ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/S RUNS...THE MODELS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN UNTIL WED. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED WILL
FEATURE UNSETTLED PERIODS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON SUN
THROUGH EARLY MON...A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. BASED ON THE CAPE FORECASTS...THIS WAVE
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A CHANCE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL WAIT TIL THIS PERIOD GETS
CLOSER BEFORE ADDING ANY THUNDER. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BASED ON MIXING TO
700 MB ON TUE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 70 DEGREES IN
MANY AREAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE TOWARD
THE AREA ON WED...BUT THE ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE GFS DELAYED
THE FRONT UNTIL WED NIGHT. BASED ON THIS TIMING UNCERTAINTY...WENT
WITH A MIX OF THE CONSALL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO UNCERTAIN FOR WED SO WENT WITH A GUIDANCE
COMPROMISE FOR THOSE AS WELL. FOR THU INTO FRI...THE ECMWF TRIED
TO REBUILD A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAD AN UNSETTLED W
TO NW FLOW. GIVEN THIS CONTINUED PATTERN UNCERTAINTY...WENT WITH
MODEL COMPROMISES FOR THE FORECAST. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG AND STRATUS WILL AFFECT
AREAS E AND SE OF KMLS...INCLUDING THE KBHK AREA...THROUGH 15Z
THIS MORNING. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMLS AS WELL...BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DENSE AS THE FOG FURTHER E. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD E TO A RED LODGE TO
KBIL TO FORSYTH LINE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN SNOW SHOWERS MIX
WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER
THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
NE BIG HORNS WILL HAVE LOCALIZED OBSCURATION LATE TONIGHT. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 035/053 035/052 035/058 038/070 043/066 040/060
0/B 22/W 34/W 32/W 01/U 01/B 21/B
LVM 055 034/050 034/049 033/054 036/064 040/064 038/058
2/W 32/W 36/W 22/W 01/N 12/W 22/W
HDN 055 030/054 031/055 034/060 034/071 039/068 038/060
0/B 12/W 34/W 32/W 01/B 02/W 21/B
MLS 054 031/055 032/054 033/056 033/070 041/068 038/058
0/B 12/W 23/W 22/W 01/B 01/U 21/B
4BQ 053 030/055 031/055 032/056 032/070 038/067 036/058
0/U 02/W 33/W 32/W 01/B 11/U 21/B
BHK 048 029/054 030/055 031/052 030/066 039/065 036/055
0/F 11/B 23/W 22/W 01/B 01/U 21/B
SHR 054 028/052 030/052 031/054 032/067 037/066 036/058
0/B 02/W 33/W 32/W 01/B 11/U 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
615 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATES A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...ZONAL FLOW EXTENDED
FROM THE PACIFIC NW COAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER EAST...A
STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SRN QUEBEC
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE SRN STREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN ARIZONA WITH HT FALLS OF 50 TO 130 METERS
NOTED FROM EL PASO TO TUSCON. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND EASTERN COLORADO. FURTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER
NRN MISSOURI. DECENT SRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE SRLY WINDS...ALLOWED FOR DECENT
MIXING BY MID MORNING WHICH PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. BY 2 PM CDT...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURE RANGED
FROM 57 AT NORTH PLATTE...TO 65 AT VALENTINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SAGGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SHORTLY BEHIND. A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH YET
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE ISOLATED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM GARDEN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY AS INDICATED LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS WHERE CAPES OF 100-250 J/KG EXIST. ALSO...THE
LATEST NAM AND HRRR BOTH FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA.
TONIGHT...THE NAM IS HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN THE NORTH.
BELIEVE THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT WORTH MONITORING. TOMORROW...AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS CO/KS...WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES ESE FROM WY INTO NE LATER IN THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS MODELS ARE GENERATING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LIFT IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE. A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL RUN FROM AROUND ONEILL TO IMPERIAL TOMORROW AS WELL.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH RATHER
LOW CAPES OF ABOUT 100-200 J/KG. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE BEST
ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN FORECASTING
CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...APPROACHING NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...ABUNDANT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CARRY OVER
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS HAVE NEGATIVE LI`S SUNDAY EVENING WITH
UNSTABLE CONDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. INHERITED FCST HAD A
MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY EVENING...AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THIS RIGHT NOW. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL WANE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS
WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING PACIFIC COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MILD TEMPS MONDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FAR
WEST TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE FOR LOWS MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WITH EXPECTED MIXING...LOWS ON THE ORDER OF
MID 30S IN THE WEST...TO UPPER 30S IN THE EAST SEEM TO BE A BETTER
FIT TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE
INHERITED FCST. WITH WARMER LOWS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING...THE
MENTION OF SNOW WAS SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE ONLY THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND A SLIVER OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
MONDAY.
ON MONDAY...STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THE LATEST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH WINDS THIS MORNING...AND IS
INDICATIVE OF ADVISORY SPEED WINDS FROM LATE MORNING MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE RAMPED UP WINDS IN THE GRIDS
AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE SHORT TERM DESK MENTION THE WIND THREAT
IN THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO WIND...VERY COLD H500
TEMPS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
SURFACE HEATING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST AND HAVE LINGERED THEM THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY AIR...LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE INDICATIVE OF A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETTING UP MONDAY
NIGHT AS WARMER H85 AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEY...TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. ON TUESDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH WARMER H85 TEMPS OF 8 TO 14C WILL PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO 10 TO 20 MPH...AS WELL AND
MAY GUST UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND FCST HIGHS IN THE 60S MAY PUSH FIRE
DANGER TO EXTREME OR NEAR CRITICAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE LONG RANGE...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DEVELOPING RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE
THREAT FOR PCPN LATE NEXT WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BE
SUPPRESSED AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...LOW DEW POINTS AND WIND...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY AND WILL MENTION THIS IN
THE HWO. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN
TIER OF STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SRLY STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE LATEST MID RANGE SOLNS ARE
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO WE
MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
EJECTS ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WEAK SFC FRONT FROM KOGA TO KVTN DRIFTS SOUTH AND GETS HUNG UP
FROM KIML TO KONL ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.
DRY AIR BELOW H700MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR ALL AREAS DURING THE THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1012 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
TEMPS RISES ARE BEING SUPPRESSED UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD COVER. WHILE
BELIEVE OUR HIGH TEMPS LOOK GOOD...HAVE DECREASED THE HOURLY TEMP
CURVES PRIMARILY FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM /ESTF/ UPDATE TO THE FCST TO SLOW DOWN
THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRATUS. THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF WILL LINGER
OVER THE FCST AREA MUCH OF THE DAY...DESPITE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
IN.
MORE LATER...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
AFTER A RETURN OF WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY...QUIETER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH BROUGHT PCPN TO OUR REGION YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER IN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. IN ITS
WAKE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS TODAY.
MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL DEPART IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM
GIVING WAY TO SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
UPSWING TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW/MID 50S E/W. THE STEADY
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE SFC
HIGH SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTN. TONIGHT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLIDE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP STEADY TEMPERATURES NEAR 30F
FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS. CONSIDERED A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR OUR
EASTERN AREAS FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE RETURN IS ESTABLISHED DUE
TO GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND RECENT WET GROUND BUT MODELS DO
NOT SUPPORT THIS AND WILL MONITOR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REVOLVES
AROUND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE START OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...AS THE REGION SITS UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES/NERN CONUS AND ANOTHER MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...THOUGH THAT
DESERT SW SYSTEM CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY EAST. MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CREEPING
TOWARD WRN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT FEEL THAT BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OF UNTIL POST 00Z. EXPECTED A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHEN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...THOUGH EXPECT GUSTS TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DIDNT
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...WHICH ARE MAINLY
IN THE LOW/MID 60S...BUT DID TREND DOWN DEWPOINTS WITH MODELS
SHOWING WINDS OUT OF THE SW. DIDNT GO QUITE AS LOW AS SOME DATA
SUGGESTS...BUT AT LEAST TRENDED THAT WAY...AND WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
UPCOMING SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES DROPPED...BUT
AT ITS CURRENT FORECAST LOW POINT IS STILL ABOVE 25 PERCENT.
LOOKING TO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS IS THE TIME FRAME
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING IT
NOT BE A CLEAR CUT SYSTEM THAT JUST SWINGS THROUGH...RATHER IT
COMING FROM A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES. PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT
WITH THIS PERIOD AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT BY 12Z
SUNDAY THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT LEAD DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS /POSSIBLY
CLOSED OFF AT 700MB/ IS LAGGING JUST A BIT BEHIND. THAT MAIN TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS DURING THE DAY/EVENING ON
SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NRN ROCKIES. LIFT FROM THIS LATEST SYSTEM WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST
THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG RAIN OUT ACROSS THE AREA...RATHER KEEPING
QPF FIELDS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. JUST HARD TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC
DETAILS AT THIS POINT WITH TIMING/LOCATION. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEPING
THINGS ABOVE FREEZING. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR
NOW...THE MOST INSTABILITY SHOWN BY ANY MODEL IS 100-200 J/KG...AND
THERE ISNT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THAT. HIGHS FOR BOTH SUN/MON
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS ANYWHERE FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MORE AMPLIFIED N/NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS RIDGE DOES
BROADEN OUT A BIT...BUT SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES FOR
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST FLATTENS IT OUT
ENOUGH THAT FLOW OVER THE AREA IS MAINLY ZONAL. WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE AXIS...AND CURRENTLY EXPECTED HIGHS ON
TUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH WED/THURS MORE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
TIMING OF DECREASING CLOUDS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF THIS
MORNING. MVFR CIGS HAVE HELD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE HRRR SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER THE BEST AND HAVE USED THIS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD. THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
RAISED CIGS TO VFR BEFORE CLEARING SKIES AROUND MID DAY. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
742 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM /ESTF/ UPDATE TO THE FCST TO SLOW DOWN
THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRATUS. THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF WILL LINGER
OVER THE FCST AREA MUCH OF THE DAY...DESPITE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
IN.
MORE LATER...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
AFTER A RETURN OF WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY...QUIETER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH BROUGHT PCPN TO OUR REGION YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER IN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. IN ITS
WAKE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS TODAY.
MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL DEPART IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM
GIVING WAY TO SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
UPSWING TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW/MID 50S E/W. THE STEADY
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE SFC
HIGH SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTN. TONIGHT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLIDE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP STEADY TEMPERATURES NEAR 30F
FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS. CONSIDERED A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR OUR
EASTERN AREAS FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE RETURN IS ESTABLISHED DUE
TO GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND RECENT WET GROUND BUT MODELS DO
NOT SUPPORT THIS AND WILL MONITOR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REVOLVES
AROUND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE START OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...AS THE REGION SITS UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES/NERN CONUS AND ANOTHER MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...THOUGH THAT
DESERT SW SYSTEM CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY EAST. MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CREEPING
TOWARD WRN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT FEEL THAT BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OF UNTIL POST 00Z. EXPECTED A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHEN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...THOUGH EXPECT GUSTS TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DIDNT
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...WHICH ARE MAINLY
IN THE LOW/MID 60S...BUT DID TREND DOWN DEWPOINTS WITH MODELS
SHOWING WINDS OUT OF THE SW. DIDNT GO QUITE AS LOW AS SOME DATA
SUGGESTS...BUT AT LEAST TRENDED THAT WAY...AND WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
UPCOMING SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES DROPPED...BUT
AT ITS CURRENT FORECAST LOW POINT IS STILL ABOVE 25 PERCENT.
LOOKING TO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS IS THE TIME FRAME
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING IT
NOT BE A CLEAR CUT SYSTEM THAT JUST SWINGS THROUGH...RATHER IT
COMING FROM A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES. PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT
WITH THIS PERIOD AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT BY 12Z
SUNDAY THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT LEAD DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS /POSSIBLY
CLOSED OFF AT 700MB/ IS LAGGING JUST A BIT BEHIND. THAT MAIN TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS DURING THE DAY/EVENING ON
SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NRN ROCKIES. LIFT FROM THIS LATEST SYSTEM WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST
THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG RAIN OUT ACROSS THE AREA...RATHER KEEPING
QPF FIELDS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. JUST HARD TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC
DETAILS AT THIS POINT WITH TIMING/LOCATION. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEPING
THINGS ABOVE FREEZING. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR
NOW...THE MOST INSTABILITY SHOWN BY ANY MODEL IS 100-200 J/KG...AND
THERE ISNT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THAT. HIGHS FOR BOTH SUN/MON
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS ANYWHERE FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MORE AMPLIFIED N/NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS RIDGE DOES
BROADEN OUT A BIT...BUT SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES FOR
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST FLATTENS IT OUT
ENOUGH THAT FLOW OVER THE AREA IS MAINLY ZONAL. WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE AXIS...AND CURRENTLY EXPECTED HIGHS ON
TUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH WED/THURS MORE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
TIMING OF DECREASING CLOUDS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF THIS
MORNING. MVFR CIGS HAVE HELD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE HRRR SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER THE BEST AND HAVE USED THIS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD. THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
RAISED CIGS TO VFR BEFORE CLEARING SKIES AROUND MID DAY. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
525 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
AFTER A RETURN OF WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY...QUIETER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH BROUGHT PCPN TO OUR REGION YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER IN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. IN ITS
WAKE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS TODAY.
MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL DEPART IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM
GIVING WAY TO SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
UPSWING TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW/MID 50S E/W. THE STEADY
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE SFC
HIGH SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTN. TONIGHT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLIDE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP STEADY TEMPERATURES NEAR 30F
FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS. CONSIDERED A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR OUR
EASTERN AREAS FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE RETURN IS ESTABLISHED DUE
TO GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND RECENT WET GROUND BUT MODELS DO
NOT SUPPORT THIS AND WILL MONITOR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REVOLVES
AROUND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE START OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...AS THE REGION SITS UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES/NERN CONUS AND ANOTHER MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...THOUGH THAT
DESERT SW SYSTEM CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY EAST. MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CREEPING
TOWARD WRN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT FEEL THAT BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OF UNTIL POST 00Z. EXPECTED A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHEN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...THOUGH EXPECT GUSTS TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DIDNT
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...WHICH ARE MAINLY
IN THE LOW/MID 60S...BUT DID TREND DOWN DEWPOINTS WITH MODELS
SHOWING WINDS OUT OF THE SW. DIDNT GO QUITE AS LOW AS SOME DATA
SUGGESTS...BUT AT LEAST TRENDED THAT WAY...AND WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
UPCOMING SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES DROPPED...BUT
AT ITS CURRENT FORECAST LOW POINT IS STILL ABOVE 25 PERCENT.
LOOKING TO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS IS THE TIME FRAME
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING IT
NOT BE A CLEAR CUT SYSTEM THAT JUST SWINGS THROUGH...RATHER IT
COMING FROM A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES. PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT
WITH THIS PERIOD AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT BY 12Z
SUNDAY THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT LEAD DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS /POSSIBLY
CLOSED OFF AT 700MB/ IS LAGGING JUST A BIT BEHIND. THAT MAIN TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS DURING THE DAY/EVENING ON
SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NRN ROCKIES. LIFT FROM THIS LATEST SYSTEM WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST
THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG RAIN OUT ACROSS THE AREA...RATHER KEEPING
QPF FIELDS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. JUST HARD TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC
DETAILS AT THIS POINT WITH TIMING/LOCATION. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEPING
THINGS ABOVE FREEZING. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR
NOW...THE MOST INSTABILITY SHOWN BY ANY MODEL IS 100-200 J/KG...AND
THERE ISNT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THAT. HIGHS FOR BOTH SUN/MON
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS ANYWHERE FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MORE AMPLIFIED N/NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS RIDGE DOES
BROADEN OUT A BIT...BUT SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES FOR
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST FLATTENS IT OUT
ENOUGH THAT FLOW OVER THE AREA IS MAINLY ZONAL. WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE AXIS...AND CURRENTLY EXPECTED HIGHS ON
TUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH WED/THURS MORE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
TIMING OF DECREASING CLOUDS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF THIS
MORNING. MVFR CIGS HAVE HELD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE HRRR SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER THE BEST AND HAVE USED THIS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD. THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
RAISED CIGS TO VFR BEFORE CLEARING SKIES AROUND MID DAY. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
347 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
AT 07Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER IOWA. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALSO...COULD SEE A
GOOD SWATH OF DRY AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
WAS RIGHT OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. RIDGING
WAS SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...WHILE AN ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SITUATED FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THROUGH
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. MOVED ONTO THE WEST COAST. DOWN AT THE
SURFACE...THE LOW WAS WELL TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS
WHILE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAVE
LOTS OF DRY AIR...MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...WHICH HAS LED TO QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TODAY...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD. WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST...BY 00Z SATURDAY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE TURNED TO THE SOUTH.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE REGION...AND RIDGING BUILDS IN...THE COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
BE DISPLACED BY WARMER AIR. AT 12Z...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA /0C TO -8C/...BUT BY 00Z
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL WILL WARM BY ABOUT 6 DEGREES.
WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER...THE STRONG
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO WARM THE SURFACE UP AND MIX OUT THE
STRATUS SO SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER GONE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S AND 50S TODAY. STILL BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER THAN
MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK.
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL DIG DOWN INTO ARIZONA. THERE WILL BE WEAK LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP TO TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING AND THUS KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR. FORECAST LOWS ARE CURRENTLY RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT
THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
MISS RVR VALLEY. MODELS BRING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...SO EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO BE INCREASING AND
SEASONAL HIGHS AROUND 60.
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH ONTO THE PLAINS WEATHER GETS MORE
COMPLEX. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS IS CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO STILL GETTING IRONED
OUT. THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT AN OUTLIER WITH A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
TRACK OF THE LOW. NORMALLY WOULD PUT LESS WEIGHT IN
THIS...HOWEVER THE NAM DID BETTER WITH THE LOW AND ESPECIALLY
WITH THE MOISTURE WITH THE WRAP AROUND OF THIS LAST EVENT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK HEAT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLD THUNDER. AGAIN THE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION SO WE MAY
NOT HAVE THE INSTABILITY THE MODELS SHOW. SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME
MORE CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S.
A SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A LOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE MORE POTENT SOUTHERN SYSTEM. AGAIN
MOISTURE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON HOW MUCH PRECIP
DEVELOPS AND REACHES THE GROUND. NOT IMPRESSED NOW AND WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLGHT CHC OR LOW CHC POPS. FRONT DOES NOT BRING VERY
COLD AIR WITH IT...AS 850 TEMPS GENERALLY ONLY BRIEFLY TOUGH
NEGATIVE TERRITORY AND THIS IS ACROSS THE NW CWA. THUS EXPECT ANY
PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DIP INTO THE 30S. MEANWHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...AND INTO SW CANADA.
THIS RIDGE DRIFTS EAST FOR MID WEEK WITH GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE
WILL GET FLATTENED AS A TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW TO END THE WEEK...TEMPS DIP DOWN TO THE 60S.
MODELS BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE BANK OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS NRN/CNTL NEB COULD EITHER MOVE
WEST AND DROP SOUTH AS INDICATED BY THE RAP MODEL AND SATELLITE
TRENDS OR SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST AS INDICATED BY THE OTHER MODELS.
SATELLITE SUGGESTS IT MAY BE BUILDING WEST TOWARD KCDR BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE DECAYING AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD KLBF.
THE FORECAST SHIFTS THE STRATUS SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF
THE FCST AREA BY 15Z-18Z. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AT KLBF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1205 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SNOW IS
RAPIDLY ENDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW BAND HAS LARGELY PASSED EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL COUNTIES
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.
THE ADVISORY END TIME HAS BEEN MOVED UP FROM 4 AM TO MIDNIGHT FOR
THOSE COUNTIES ACROSS OUR EAST THAT ARE STILL UNDER THE ADVISORY.
THE SNOW BAND IS MOVING QUICK ENOUGH THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END ACROSS OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE SNOW HAS COME TO AN END. WE WILL NOT BE
GETTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITHIN OUR ADVISORY AREA...BUT
SINCE IT IS NOW SNOWING AND COMING DOWN PRETTY GOOD AT
TIMES...WILL JUST LET THE ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS. MOST
PLACES WITHIN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE 1 INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS MAY PICK UP 2 INCHES IF THEY CAN GET
UNDER A MORE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW BAND. THE SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO
ACCUMULATE DUE TO NEAR SFC AIR TEMPERATURES OF 32 TO 34F AND
WARMER SOIL TEMPERATURES. IT IS JUST A TOUCH TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING
MORE IMPACTFUL. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS EVENING TO AROUND
FREEZING AND SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON AREA BRIDGES AND ROADWAYS
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
CANCELED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END
LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
...A COMPLEX SITUATION IS UNFOLDING WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED DECENT
PRECIP BUT HOW IT FALLS REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN EVEN AS IT`S ON
THE DOORSTEP...
ALOFT: A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF WAS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO NEB/KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND HEADS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW
TOMORROW...HERE ON THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SURFACE: THIS IS THE FIRST SPRING STORM OF THE SEASON...THOUGH
ITS IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED FOR OUR FCST AREA. LOW PRES WAS
OVER ERN KS...SITUATED ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONT. THE FCST AREA WAS
IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS LOW WILL CROSS INTO MO AND BE OVER LAKE
MI BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...MODESTLY DEEPENING OVER THE JOURNEY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SPILL S DOWN THE PLAINS AND INCREASE ITS
INFLUENCE HERE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
NOW: LIFT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING VIA BLOSSOMING RETURNS ON
RADAR. THE TROF IS SHIFTING E AND THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER KANSAS
CITY. CLOUD TOPS ARE MODESTLY COOLING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
EDGES E.
THE HI-RES RAP HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON THE REFLECTIVITY IN THIS
BAND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
4PM- 5PM.
THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION WITH P-TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE WILL
IS SUB-FRZG W OF THE TROF AXIS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER /BL/
IS ABOVE FRZG...THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR AROUND TO ADVECT
IN ...AND PCPN IS NOT FALLING HEAVY ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO OVERCOME
THE WARM BL. THE PCPN INTENSITY WILL DRIVE THE P-TYPE AND AMTS.
THIS MAKES THE FCST DIFFICULT AND PUTS INTO JEOPARDY THE
OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN-SNOW AND
SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMTS.
IF PCPN DOES NOT COME DOWN HEAVILY ENOUGH...WHEN/IF THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS...IT WILL MELT ON CONTACT.
FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOW THRU MIDNIGHT.
HERE IS OUR CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON:
INTERMITTENT DRZL WITH EMBEDDED SHWRS/SLEET OVER S-CNTRL NEB WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A FAIRLY STEADY R AND EVENTUALLY TO S AS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN BAND HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL HOLD STEADY.
TONIGHT: EXPECT BY 7 PM THAT WHATEVER RAIN IS FALLING SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE LOSE SOLAR INPUT ON SFC TEMPS. SNOW WILL END
FROM W- E. IT IS WITH RELUCTANCE THAT I AM KEEPING THE
ADVISORY...MAINLY DUE TO THE VERY LOW POTENTIAL THAT THIS PCPN
COULD OVER-PRODUCE. BE ADVISED THAT SNOWFALL AMTS COULD END UP
BELOW AN INCH AND SOME AREAS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT ACCUMULATE AT
ALL. THE SNOW E OF HWY 81 WILL BE DONE BY 3AM. DECREASING CLOUDS
WILL FOLLOW.
FCST SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO NO MORE THAN 1 INCH AND
I HOPE THIS IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF HAND GIVEN THAT THE
STRONGEST PRES RISES WILL OCCUR S OF I-70. GUSTS COULD REACH 40
MPH AT TIMES...E OF HWY 281 OVER S-CNTRL NEB.
POSSIBLE FCST SHORT-COMINGS FOR NUMEROUS. THE SNOW HAS BEEN
MODERATE AT TIMES TODAY OVER NW KS /CBK/ AND EVEN BRIEFLY AT MCK.
IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE TRANSIENT HEAVIER SNOW BANDS COULD
SWING THRU N- CNTRL KS.
TOMORROW: SUNNY AND TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. USED BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND OF MODEL 2M TEMPS AND THE PREVIOUS GID FCST. THIS
RAISED HIGHS 3-4.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING TO NEARLY 700 MB. SO DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWERED BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES...AND
THERE MAY BE MORE DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL INTO THE UPR TEENS.
WINDS WILL BE BRZY IN THE MORNING...GUSTING 30-35 MPH E OF HWY
281. BUT WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
MAIN CONCERNS WILL FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SAT NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLUCTUATE
DURING THE PERIOD IN QUESTION.
STARTING OFF FRIDAY EVENING LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR REGION SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR
REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUT THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN ROCKIES AT THAT TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH LEE TROUGHING
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE
WINDS SWITCHING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. END UP WITH A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THUS IT WILL BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY
SIDE ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY
BROAD...SLOW MOVING TROUGH WITH THE 500 MB AXIS OVER THE CENTER OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z MON. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE TROUGH...OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES ROTATE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES POINT
TO ALL LIQUID. ALSO...INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH FORECAST MU-CAPES BELOW 100 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS BETTER JUST TO
THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE TRANSITION DAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE EAST. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE WARMER AIR TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION...BUT WED AND THURSDAY SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A NICE WARMUP WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE 70S WHICH
WOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
MODELS DIFFER ON LOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE
TERMINAL...BUT WITH UPSTREAM MVFR CIGS WILL MAINTAIN CIGS FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS YET UNTIL SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CLEARING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1124 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SSW
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SERN STATES NWD
INTO NRN MICHIGAN. A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...A 50 TO 80 KT JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM SRN AZ INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO NWRN OK. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTH SOUTHWEST FROM THE
LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED INVOF OF A MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
FROM WESTERN HOLT COUNTY INTO FRONTIER COUNTY. FURTHER
WEST...CLEARING WAS PRESENT...AND HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 34 AT
ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW...TO 43 AT THEDFORD AND OGALLALA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
AS INDICATED BY RADAR TIMING TOOLS AND THE RAP MODEL...SNOW HAS
EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SOUTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION DISRUPTED THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AS A RESULT THE SNOW BAND HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY
AS FIRST THOUGHT. THIS WAS A POSSIBILITY AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY.
WILL CONTINUE THE GOING HEADLINES...AS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA FROM ONEILL TO BROKEN BOW AND
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS ACTUALLY BEGUN TO
BACK WEST SOME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS AREA...AND PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN INCREASING. EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
FROM HOLT COUNTY...SOUTH THROUGH WHEELER AND EASTERN CUSTER
COUNTIES. LATE TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
SKIES CLEARING.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -2C AT ONEILL TO 7C AT
IMPERIAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WELL ON SUNDAY.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND SERN WYOMING. SRLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...LEADING TO A FAIRLY
MILD NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION
TO WIND...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING UPPR LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. SRLY WINDS WILL CARRY OVER
INTO SATURDAY WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST INVOF OF A
STALLED OUT BOUNDARY. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10C
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ARE ON
TRACK. ONLY CONCERN MAY BE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WHICH WILL INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL LIFT INTO WRN KS/SATURDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES IN THE SWRN CWA...TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
ATTM...THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE NWRN CWA
AND ARE COLLOCATED WITH NEGATIVE LI`S SATURDAY EVE...HOWEVER BL
MOISTURE IS VERY MEAGER ON SATURDAY...ESP IN THE NW...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM. ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WERE GENERALLY
LEFT UNCHANGED FROM THE PVS FCST AS THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL
AND NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I DID ADJUST THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
ACROSS THE SWRN CWA BASED ON WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE LI`S AND
STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
EAST INTO THE OZARKS. ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG NRN
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
WITH THE THREAT LINGERING IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING. IN LIGHT OF
THE MID LEVEL FORCING AND COLD FROPA MONDAY...WILL LEAVE THIS
MENTION IN THE ONGOING FCST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING EAST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
TUESDAY...READINGS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE LATEST MID RANGE MODEL SOLNS ARE
INDICATING A COLD FROPA WHICH WILL DROP OUR HIGHS BACK INTO THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE BANK OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS NRN/CNTL NEB COULD EITHER MOVE
WEST AND DROP SOUTH AS INDICATED BY THE RAP MODEL AND SATELLITE
TRENDS OR SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST AS INDICATED BY THE OTHER MODELS.
SATELLITE SUGGESTS IT MAY BE BUILDING WEST TOWARD KCDR BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE DECAYING AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD KLBF.
THE FORECAST SHIFTS THE STRATUS SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF
THE FCST AREA BY 15Z-18Z. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AT KLBF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1028 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH A WARM SUNNY DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1028 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ONLY VERY
MINOR/UNNOTICEABLE ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED AS OF 10 PM. CLOUDS
STILL HANGING TOUGH AND LATEST ANALYSIS/NEAR TERM RAP RH PROGS
SUGGEST MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD SEE PESKY
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE AT KPBG/KBTV. WITH
WESTERLY FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS AND THE CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM DESPITE MODEST COLD THERMAL ADVECTION IN
THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...GENERALLY FROM 25 TO 30. ANY LINGERING
SHSN/FLURRIES ACROSS THE NRN MTNS SHOULD ALSO BE ENDING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS MID LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES AND UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE BTV CWA FOR SUNDAY MAKING FOR
A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 0C SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE TO LOCALLY 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVERHEAD OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S EXPECTED. FOR MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS APPROACH. P-GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN 925MB TEMPS AROUND +5C
PUNCHING HIGHS INTO THE 50S. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN DEVELOPING LATE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF MIX ON THE
SUMMITS...BUT QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASE S-SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SATURDAY...RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SFC LOW VCNTY OF
WRN NY BRINGING WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES AND PCPN LIFTS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS (70-80
PERCENT)...BUT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHTER SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING UPR TROUGH AND
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT. COINCIDENT LOW-LEVEL CAA TUESDAY NIGHT
MAY ALLOW LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS VT...WITH
UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODERATE
GRADIENT FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP NW WINDS 10-20 MPH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. STILL SOME NWLY
GRADIENT FLOW WEDNESDAY...SO WINDS NW 10-20 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. WITH 850MB
TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S (UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS). CLEAR
AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. RETURN LOW-LEVEL S-SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES
TO THE EAST THURSDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY INTO
THE MID-UPR 50S MOST SECTIONS...WITH A FEW HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
CARRIED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAY END AS A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS FRIDAY.
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY (HIGHS LOW-MID 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...EXPECT CURRENT BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CEILINGS TO THEN TURN MORE
VFR/MVFR BETWEEN 02-07Z WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
DROP OFF NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WELL BUT WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED
AROUND 09-12 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO WEST-
NORTHWEST UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOWARD VFR THROUGH EARLY MORNING
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SKC ALL TAF SITES BY THE AFTERNOON. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 8-10 KTS...THOUGH WITH A SLACKENING TREND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD 00Z MONDAY WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY INTO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GUSTY WNWLY TO NWLY WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OCCASIONALLY VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK. CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH A WARM SUNNY DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED AS OF 7 PM. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES WERE TO DELAY CLEARING BY
A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT AND TO DECREASE POPS FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
RAP 850 MB RH/MODELLED REFL PROGS WHICH ARE HANDLING CURRENT
EVOLUTION OF THESE FIELDS QUITE WELL. OTHERWISE JUST NOISE-LEVEL
TWEAKS TO T/TD DATA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STILL MONITORING THE THREAT FOR UPSLOPE SNOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN
VERMONT...BUT LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
THE BEST PV AND MOISTURE ARE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BY THE TIME THE FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY FAVORING UPSLOPE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL COUNTERACT ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY UPSLOPE THIS EVENING
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN GREENS FROM MOUNT MANSFIELD
NORTH TO JAY PEAK THROUGH A FEW HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT WHERE A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF SKY COVER AND SUSTAINED WINDS
OVER 8 KNOTS TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE BTV CWA FOR SUNDAY MAKING FOR
A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 0C SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE TO LOCALLY 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVERHEAD OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S EXPECTED. FOR MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS APPROACH. P-GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN 925MB TEMPS AROUND +5C
PUNCHING HIGHS INTO THE 50S. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN DEVELOPING LATE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF MIX ON THE
SUMMITS...BUT QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASE S-SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SATURDAY...RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SFC LOW VCNTY OF
WRN NY BRINGING WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES AND PCPN LIFTS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS (70-80
PERCENT)...BUT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHTER SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING UPR TROUGH AND
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT. COINCIDENT LOW-LEVEL CAA TUESDAY NIGHT
MAY ALLOW LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS VT...WITH
UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODERATE
GRADIENT FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP NW WINDS 10-20 MPH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. STILL SOME NWLY
GRADIENT FLOW WEDNESDAY...SO WINDS NW 10-20 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. WITH 850MB
TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S (UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS). CLEAR
AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. RETURN LOW-LEVEL S-SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES
TO THE EAST THURSDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY INTO
THE MID-UPR 50S MOST SECTIONS...WITH A FEW HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
CARRIED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAY END AS A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS FRIDAY.
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY (HIGHS LOW-MID 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...EXPECT CURRENT BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CEILINGS TO THEN TURN MORE
VFR/MVFR BETWEEN 02-07Z WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
DROP OFF NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WELL BUT WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED
AROUND 09-12 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO WEST-
NORTHWEST UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOWARD VFR THROUGH EARLY MORNING
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SKC ALL TAF SITES BY THE AFTERNOON. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 8-10 KTS...THOUGH WITH A SLACKENING TREND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD 00Z MONDAY WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY INTO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GUSTY WNWLY TO NWLY WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OCCASIONALLY VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK. CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
723 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH A WARM SUNNY DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STILL MONITORING THE
THREAT FOR UPSLOPE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT...BUT LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE BEST PV AND MOISTURE ARE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BY THE
TIME THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY FAVORING UPSLOPE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL COUNTERACT ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY UPSLOPE THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN
GREENS FROM MOUNT MANSFIELD NORTH TO JAY PEAK THROUGH A FEW HOURS
PAST MIDNIGHT WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A
GENERAL CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF
SKY COVER AND SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 8 KNOTS TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE BTV CWA FOR SUNDAY MAKING FOR
A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 0C SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE TO LOCALLY 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVERHEAD OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S EXPECTED. FOR MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS APPROACH. P-GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN 925MB TEMPS AROUND +5C
PUNCHING HIGHS INTO THE 50S. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN DEVELOPING LATE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF MIX ON THE
SUMMITS...BUT QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASE S-SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SATURDAY...RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SFC LOW VCNTY OF
WRN NY BRINGING WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES AND PCPN LIFTS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS (70-80
PERCENT)...BUT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHTER SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING UPR TROUGH AND
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT. COINCIDENT LOW-LEVEL CAA TUESDAY NIGHT
MAY ALLOW LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS VT...WITH
UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODERATE
GRADIENT FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP NW WINDS 10-20 MPH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. STILL SOME NWLY
GRADIENT FLOW WEDNESDAY...SO WINDS NW 10-20 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. WITH 850MB
TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S (UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS). CLEAR
AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. RETURN LOW-LEVEL S-SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES
TO THE EAST THURSDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY INTO
THE MID-UPR 50S MOST SECTIONS...WITH A FEW HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
CARRIED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAY END AS A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS FRIDAY.
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY (HIGHS LOW-MID 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...EXPECT CURRENT BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CEILINGS TO THEN TURN MORE
VFR/MVFR BETWEEN 02-07Z WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
DROP OFF NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WELL BUT WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED
AROUND 09-12 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO WEST-
NORTHWEST UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOWARD VFR THROUGH EARLY MORNING
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SKC ALL TAF SITES BY THE AFTERNOON. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 8-10 KTS...THOUGH WITH A SLACKENING TREND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD 00Z MONDAY WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY INTO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GUSTY WNWLY TO NWLY WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OCCASIONALLY VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK. CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
252 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEING LOCATED NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
INCREASES BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
MIXING HAD FINALLY TAKEN PLACE WITH SOME THINNING OR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH A SMATTERING OF WIND
GUSTS AROUND 30KT. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WINDS...THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...
BELOW 0.75 INCH...AND NEGLIGIBLE MLCAPE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE. THE
LATEST MSAS LIFTED INDEX ANALYSIS SHOWED VALUES AT OR ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL...THOUGH WITH SOME HEATING
STILL DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT LOW NEGATIVE VALUES BY
LATE IN THE DAY. STILL...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...DIMINISHING LIFT AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST...AND RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AT BEST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION APPARENTLY
LIMITED.
THE CAP AROUND 700MB SHOULD ERODE SOME THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP DOES
NOT ERODE COMPLETELY. IT IS CLOSE...THOUGH...AND WILL NEED TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WRF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND THE
RETREATING BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER...THE VERY
LATEST HRRR WRF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION THAT MAY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85.
REGARDLESS...AGAIN...IT IS PRUDENT WITH SOME EROSION OF THE MID-
LEVEL CAP...AND AN ANTICIPATED NARROW WINDOW OF INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...TO SHOW SOME CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND
THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...A STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH A VIGOROUS SHOWER OR STORM SHOULD ONE DEVELOP...AND
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NOTES THIS. CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DUE TO THE EXPECTED
SPEED OF THE FRONT AND LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS DRY THE AIR
MASS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS WITH
MIXING IN A WINDOW OF A TIGHTER GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SATURDAY. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE WAY THE AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO
WARM OF LATE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS WHILE THE NAM IS LESS BULLISH...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CONFLUENT FLOW NORTH
CLOSER TO TROUGHINESS ALOFT...THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE...OR
MORE OPAQUE AT TIMES...HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. AS SUCH...WITH COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD REACH IN THE UPPER
30S ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. CURRENTLY...
EXPECT VALUES THERE TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF
FROST...ALTHOUGH IF CLOUDS ARE LESS PREVALENT UNDER A LIGHT WIND...
A PATCH OR TWO IN THE MOST SHELTERED AREA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
WITH A COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP...THERE CONTINUES TO BE NEAR
RO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT
DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY...WITH IN-SITU DAMMING SETTING UP
OVER THE REGION. AS OUR NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OVERRUNNING PRECIP SHOULD
COMMENCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON (MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH)...HOWEVER THE
BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO START UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES EVEN MORE
IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ERODING THE
CAD WEDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MANY TIMES THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK
TO DO THIS AND IT MAY INDEED HOLD IN PLACE LONGER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE EXPECTED PRECIP. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND IF THE CAD WEDGE HOLDS...IT COULD ALSO SERVE AS A
FOCUS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING (MODELS KEEP BEST INSTABILITY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST)
WHICH WOULD HINDER MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THEN THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
FOR THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FLAT RIDGING MOVE OVER THE
REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP
FRIDAY DRY...TOO.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GIVEN THE EXPECTED CAD AND PRECIP AND THEN DUE TO DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST. SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SHOULD SUCH AN EVENT OCCUR...THE PRIMARY
AVIATION IMPACT SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD REACH AROUND 30KT AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KTS ARE LIKELY WITH INITIAL MIXING
SATURDAY MORNING.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF SATURDAY AND LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE
PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS STARTS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT BY MONDAY THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST MVFR IF
NOT IFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE AT AROUND 2000FT MAY INCREASE TO
VALUES APPROACHING 50KT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS COULD
CAUSE LLWS CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART INTO WEDNESDAY...
OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWER.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY...AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM FRIDAY...
AT 14Z...A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER...THOUGH
DURING THE DAY THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z KGSO
SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY BELOW ABOUT 500MB...AND AT THAT LEVEL THERE
WAS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT THAT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE FAIRLY
NUMEROUS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MID-TO-LATE MORNING.
RAP PLAN VIEW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS AND ITS SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT THIS MORNING IN SUGGESTING THESE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
THIN AND BREAK SOME AS DRIER AIR AT 500MB MOVES INTO THE AREA
BRIEFLY. IF THIS OCCURS AS FORECAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH CLOSE TO EXPECT HIGHS...AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME GUSTY
TO AROUND 30KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAP SOUNDINGS TOWARD KRWI SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS ACTUALLY JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
30KT...AND IF MIXING IS REALIZED A GUST OR TWO IN THE UPPER 30S MPH
IS NOT UNREASONABLE WITH 925MB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 30
TO 35KT.
RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT STABLE THIS AFTERNOON. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WITH SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD THE
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BORDER SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AROUND 22Z OR SO. 850MB DIVERGENCE IS PREVALENT THROUGH THEN...AND
THEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START TO INCREASE TO 1.4 INCHES...AND
MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST KM RISES TO AROUND 300J/KG WHILE A 500MB JETLET
AROUND 60KT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
REALIZED IN THE COLUMN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF
THE WRF GUIDANCE IS LIMITED ON THE AMOUNT AND STRENGTH OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IT MAY BE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
A MORE VIGOROUS SHOWER OR STORM COULD BE NEAR THE RETREATING
BOUNDARY...ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER...GIVEN
ENOUGH HEATING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONTAL CONVECTION IS APT TO BE WEAKER DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE
DIURNAL TIMING. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT PERHAPS THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL
PLAIN BY 12Z...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER AND DRIER AIR AND LOWS IN THE
50S...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES NEAR THE PASSING FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPEPR MIDWEST AND
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IN
WNW POST-FRONTAL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD. HIGHS 70-75 AND
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON SUNDAY AS
INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERRUNS THE CAD WEDGE THAT WILL BE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MID
MISS VALLEY NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE TN VALLEY MONDAY
MORNING...NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY EVENING...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING THE START OF THE
LIGHT RAIN IN THIS PATTERN...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL
BE LOWERING AND THICKENING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOPING NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
START OF THE STEADIER RAIN HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST STRATIFORM RAIN
OCCURRING BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY AS 750-850 MB FLOW INCREASES TO 40-
50KT AND OVERRUNS THE ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL WEDGE AIRMASS. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW QUICKLY AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE WEDGE
ERODES...HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS EAST OF THE WEDGE...AND
ASSOC SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE ERODING AND
THE ASSOC BOUNDARY PULLING BACK NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN 18Z MON
AND 00Z TUE...WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 00-06Z TUE.
HOWEVER...ITS WELL NOTED THAT THE MODELS TEND TO UNDERPLAY THE
STABILITY OF THE WEDGE AND TEND TO ERODE IT TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING
THAT THE WEDGE WILL INDEED ERODE WITH TIME LATE MONDAY...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LATE-DAY CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR E/SE ZONES WHERE
THE BEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE FOUND...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM ALBEMARLE TO DURHAM TO HENDERSON. WIND FIELDS IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT IF THE INSTABILITY IS ADEQUATE...WE`LL HAVE
TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CELLS.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF OUR CWA BEFORE SUNRISE
TUESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF DRYING IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WON`T COMPLETELY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE WON`T BE PLENTIFUL...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. ONCE THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A RIDGE TO
BUILD BACK OVER OUR AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WON`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM NORMAL.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHEN CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY
HOLD TEMPS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT (INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
TRIAD) IN THE UPPER 50S...AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1040 AM FRIDAY...
MAINLY VFR. A WARM SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS AROUND 14 OR 15Z...IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOWNSTREAM OF A LOW STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS AROUND
30KT POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH MIXING TAKES PLACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY AFFECT TRIAD TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z-00Z...BEFORE WEAKENING
FURTHER AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS OVER
EAST-CENTRAL NC. AN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 10Z.
OUTLOOK: A DRIER AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND RAIN/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUN NIGHT-MON.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...DJF/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...DJF/MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TONIGHTS LOWS AS A
RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM PILOT MOUND...MB DOWN THROUGH
EUREKA...SD SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...ENTERING MN SIDE
OF THE VALLEY BY AROUND 06Z TO 08Z. A WEAK COOL FRONT CLIPS THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY EARLY SAT MORNING. GENERALLY LIKE A BLEND OF
THE NAM AND ECMWF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BULLISH WITH MOISTURE AND
HAS A COUPLE OF PERIODS (THE LAST TWO RUNS) WITH QPF BULLSEYES.
NAM/ECMWF IS GENERALLY DRIER.
TONIGHT...ATTM DIFFICULT TO ASSESS TRUE CLOUD COVER WITH SOME
AREAS THINNING/CLEARING...BUT DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE LOW
CLOUDS FROM RECENT SNOW IN OTHER AREAS. IN GENERAL..APPEARS CLOUDS
ARE THINNING...AND THE RUC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON IT CLEARING OUT AFT 00Z ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST. CERTAINLY THINK BY 06Z AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT THEN
SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVING INTO SASK WILL
MOVE ACROSS MB IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME...AND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE I DID REMOVE POPS AND GO WITH FLURRIES OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING WITH SPRINKLES NORTHEAST BY NOON. GFS SOUNDINGS DRY MID
LEVELS OUT INDICATING POSSIBLE DRIZZLE BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THAT
POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL SEE BREEZY SFC WINDS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS SHIFT NW EARLY EVENING AND
BEFORE SFC HIGH BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT. SFC LOWS COULD BE
COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING IN AREAS OF FRESHER SNOW AS
WE SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE
NORTH...WARMER TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE WILL STILL HAVE
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE SKY COVER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL SEE STRONGER RETURN FLOW SET UP SUN AFTN
AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO 5OS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS IN
SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH A SFC LOW/WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS
AREA SUN NIGHT...WITH NAM SHOWING SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
LATE SUN AFTN BUT GENERALLY DRY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF SIMILAR TO NAM WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION
MINUS LATE SUN AFTN ACTIVITY. GFS BRINGS ACROSS MORE MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS SUN AFTN BUT LIMITS PRECIP TO SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA SUN NIGHT. AGAIN...GENERALLY LIKE THE DRIER SOLUTION
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY GULF MOISTURE LIKELY BEING ROBBED BY STRONG
CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN (BECOMING RAIN/SNOW BY
EARLY MON MORNING) ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH LOW POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF HILLSBORO.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE N CENTRAL US INTO MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A STEADY WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES TOPPING OUT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN 60S LOOKS LIKELY.
FLOW THEN FLATTENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR FLATTENING THE RIDGE WILL
DROP THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FROPA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FEEL CURRENT MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS FROM THE VALLEY WEST WILL LIFT SOME
AND BECOME BROKEN BUT NOT LIKELY TO SCATTER OUT UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THIS EVENING THICKENING CI WILL SPREAD FROM W-E ACROSS THE FA
HOWEVER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
FA WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
121 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
TOOK ONE LAST SHOT AT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...BUMPING UP
TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
SNOW IS SCARCE AND SUN IS PLENTIFUL TODAY. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRATUS IS SLOW TO
ERODE. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
QUICK UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY AREA CENTERED NEAR DICKINSON. EXPECT THIS AREA TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALSO WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A
BIT IN THE SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 AM MDT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WX CAMS
INDICATE VISIBILITIES IMPROVING IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER KDIK AND
KHEI ARE STILL A QUARTER AND HALF MILE RESPECTIVELY. WILL CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY FOR NOW AND CAN ALWAYS DROP IT EARLY IF VISIBILITIES
REBOUND QUICKLY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH STRATUS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AND WEST TO EAST. MADE SOME MINOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE. COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST LAST
NIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEARED BEFORE FOG DEVELOPED. ADJUSTED MORNING
TEMPERATURE RISE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD START.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
RECENT SNOW COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RADIATE INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRESH SURFACE MOISTURE SOURCE AND
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES
ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHERE THE
SKY HAS CLEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. ONE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY IS BEING REPORTED AT DICKINSON...BEACH AND IN BAKER
MONTANA. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOW DENSE FOG IN BELFIELD AND BOWMAN. WILL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 16Z. HETTINGER IS
NEARING A CLEAR POCKET AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE TRYING TO FORECAST
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. THE HRRR SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECAST
SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UP UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z.
THEREAFTER...MIXING ENSUES AND CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CANADA
FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLICING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THE
BEST FORCING RESIDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE GEM/GFS AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW
FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SATURDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP OCCURRING...SO THINK IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL.
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
STATEWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS (THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET) IS FORECAST TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ECMWF) OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (GFS). FOR NOW INDICATED A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 7 FORECAST. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE VLIFR SITUATION IN KDIK AND MFVR IN KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE IN KDIK...DROPPING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO A
MVFR CATEGORY OR LOWER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL ADDRESS TEMPS. WE ARE NO SEEING SOME
THINNING/BREAKING UP OF CLOUDS IN SOUTHEASTERN ND BUT CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE ACTUALLY BEGINNING TO ADVECT WEST INTO BENSON
COUNTY WHILE THE CLEARING OVER EASTERN ZONES HAS EXPANDED INTO
CENTRAL POLK. THEREFORE I AM REDUCING TEMPS TWO TO THREE DEG IN
AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLOUDY AS I DON`T SEE CLEARING OCCURRING IN
TIME TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON CLOUDS (MAY ACTUALLY KEEP US WARMER
TONIGHT). HAVE KEPT UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EAST. ALSO REDUCED
MEASURABLE PRECIP/POPS TO LIGHT FLURRIES SAT AM AND SPRINKLES IN
THE AFTN...AS MODELS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE SOUTH OF
THE INTL BORDER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OVER LAKE MANITOBA DOWN THROUGH
WALL...SD WITH SOME CLEARING NOW EDGING INTO NORTHWESTERN BENSON
COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF CLEAR SKIES THAT IS ACTUALLY
EXPANDING OVER LAKE OF THE WOOD DOWN THROUGH FAR EASTERN OTTER
TAIL COUNTY. ESTF SKY TOOL DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS AND WILL
USE IT FOR SKY TRENDS...WITH RUC H925-H850 RH PICKING UP ON SOME
OF THESE AREAS OF DRIER LL MOISTURE AS WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY TEMPS OVER THESE EASTERN ZONES AS FOREST EFFECT MAY CAUSE
WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FCST AS THEY ARE ALREADY CLEAR. WILL
SEE HOW NEXT COUPLE SETS OF OBS COME IN BEFORE ADJUSTING TOO
MUCH AS CLOUDS TO THE WEST MAY ADVECT OVER AREA (RUC DOES SHOW
THIS AREA FILLING IN). OTHER THAN THAT...NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH
LOW POPS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER AS NAM KEEPS SOUTHERN EXTEND OF ANY
PRECIP AROUND WINNIPEG. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES IN...AND IF IT IS
UNIMPRESSIVE AS WELL WILL LIKELY PULL POPS IN THIS AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LAST COUPLE HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP STRATUS DECK OVER THE FA THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND WILL ADJUST
LITTLE FOR THIS UPDATE. A COOL AND CLOUDY FRIDAY WITH SOME MORNING
FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE FOR THE VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUD TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE FA.
CLOUDS THE MAIN PLAYER WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AS FLURRY/DRIZZLE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE WITH AREA METARS SHOWING VSBYS
ALL HIGHER THAN 5SM. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY
SATURATED BLYR TODAY EXPECTING STRATUS DECK TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
THE VALLEY. COULD BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE HIGHER EAST AND
WEST PORTIONS OF THE FA SCT OUT FIRST AND THE VALLEYS TOPOGRAPHY
SLOWS EROSION OF THE STRATUS DECK. SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME SCT-BKN CIGS LATE AFTN.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING FOR
SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 5C IN THE WEST TO 1C IN THE EAST
WITH SOME SOLAR AND FAVORABLE SW WARMING SFC WIND. SHOULD MELT
SNOW AND REACH INTO THE 40S HWY 200 SOUTH AND FLIRT WITH 40 WHERE
SNOWPACK IS DEEPER WITH MN TREES WARMING EFFICIENTLY TO NEAR 50.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
WEAK FROPA TO BRING CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
SAT PM. DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH AXIS CROSSING THE FA.
ANOTHER SNOW MELTING DAY IF WE CAN MAINTAIN GOOD SUN. MAY HAVE TO
BURN OF SOME FOG GIVEN WEAK SFC WINDS SUN AM.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS CANADA. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY (WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CANADIAN SYSTEM)...THEN BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY.
THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FAST MOVING WEAK UPPER WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FEEL CURRENT MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS FROM THE VALLEY WEST WILL LIFT SOME
AND BECOME BROKEN BUT NOT LIKELY TO SCATTER OUT UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THIS EVENING THICKENING CI WILL SPREAD FROM W-E ACROSS THE FA
HOWEVER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
FA WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1111 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
QUICK UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY AREA CENTERED NEAR DICKINSON. EXPECT THIS AREA TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALSO WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A
BIT IN THE SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 AM MDT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WX CAMS
INDICATE VISIBILITIES IMPROVING IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER KDIK AND
KHEI ARE STILL A QUARTER AND HALF MILE RESPECTIVELY. WILL CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY FOR NOW AND CAN ALWAYS DROP IT EARLY IF VISIBILITIES
REBOUND QUICKLY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH STRATUS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AND WEST TO EAST. MADE SOME MINOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE. COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST LAST
NIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEARED BEFORE FOG DEVELOPED. ADJUSTED MORNING
TEMPERATURE RISE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD START.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
RECENT SNOW COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RADIATE INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRESH SURFACE MOISTURE SOURCE AND
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES
ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHERE THE
SKY HAS CLEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. ONE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY IS BEING REPORTED AT DICKINSON...BEACH AND IN BAKER
MONTANA. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOW DENSE FOG IN BELFIELD AND BOWMAN. WILL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 16Z. HETTINGER IS
NEARING A CLEAR POCKET AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE TRYING TO FORECAST
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. THE HRRR SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECAST
SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UP UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z.
THEREAFTER...MIXING ENSUES AND CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CANADA
FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLICING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THE
BEST FORCING RESIDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE GEM/GFS AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW
FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SATURDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP OCCURRING...SO THINK IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL.
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
STATEWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS (THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET) IS FORECAST TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ECMWF) OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (GFS). FOR NOW INDICATED A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 7 FORECAST. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR KDIK AT 16Z. KDIK REMAINS
AT A QUARTER MILE BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT
HOUR. ELSEWHERE...KISN AND KMOT HAVE CLEARED...WITH MVFR CEILINGS
REMAINING FOR KBIS AND KJMS. KBIS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS
THROUGH AROUND 18Z WITH KJMS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS UNTIL 21Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OVER LAKE MANITOBA DOWN THROUGH
WALL...SD WITH SOME CLEARING NOW EDGING INTO NORTHWESTERN BENSON
COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF CLEAR SKIES THAT IS ACTUALLY
EXPANDING OVER LAKE OF THE WOOD DOWN THROUGH FAR EASTERN OTTER
TAIL COUNTY. ESTF SKY TOOL DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS AND WILL
USE IT FOR SKY TRENDS...WITH RUC H925-H850 RH PICKING UP ON SOME
OF THESE AREAS OF DRIER LL MOISTURE AS WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY TEMPS OVER THESE EASTERN ZONES AS FOREST EFFECT MAY CAUSE
WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FCST AS THEY ARE ALREADY CLEAR. WILL
SEE HOW NEXT COUPLE SETS OF OBS COME IN BEFORE ADJUSTING TOO
MUCH AS CLOUDS TO THE WEST MAY ADVECT OVER AREA (RUC DOES SHOW
THIS AREA FILLING IN). OTHER THAN THAT...NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH
LOW POPS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER AS NAM KEEPS SOUTHERN EXTEND OF ANY
PRECIP AROUND WINNIPEG. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES IN...AND IF IT IS
UNIMPRESSIVE AS WELL WILL LIKELY PULL POPS IN THIS AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LAST COUPLE HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP STRATUS DECK OVER THE FA THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND WILL ADJUST
LITTLE FOR THIS UPDATE. A COOL AND CLOUDY FRIDAY WITH SOME MORNING
FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE FOR THE VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUD TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE FA.
CLOUDS THE MAIN PLAYER WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AS FLURRY/DRIZZLE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE WITH AREA METARS SHOWING VSBYS
ALL HIGHER THAN 5SM. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY
SATURATED BLYR TODAY EXPECTING STRATUS DECK TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
THE VALLEY. COULD BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE HIGHER EAST AND
WEST PORTIONS OF THE FA SCT OUT FIRST AND THE VALLEYS TOPOGRAPHY
SLOWS EROSION OF THE STRATUS DECK. SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME SCT-BKN CIGS LATE AFTN.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING FOR
SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 5C IN THE WEST TO 1C IN THE EAST
WITH SOME SOLAR AND FAVORABLE SW WARMING SFC WIND. SHOULD MELT
SNOW AND REACH INTO THE 40S HWY 200 SOUTH AND FLIRT WITH 40 WHERE
SNOWPACK IS DEEPER WITH MN TREES WARMING EFFICIENTLY TO NEAR 50.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
WEAK FROPA TO BRING CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
SAT PM. DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH AXIS CROSSING THE FA.
ANOTHER SNOW MELTING DAY IF WE CAN MAINTAIN GOOD SUN. MAY HAVE TO
BURN OF SOME FOG GIVEN WEAK SFC WINDS SUN AM.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS CANADA. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY (WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CANADIAN SYSTEM)...THEN BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY.
THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FAST MOVING WEAK UPPER WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ALONG ON THE VALLEY WITH IMPROVING CIGS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN
EDGES. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CIGS INTO THE 2 TO 3K
FT RANGE WITH SOME SCT CU BY 00-02Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
914 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 AM MDT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WX CAMS
INDICATE VISIBILITIES IMPROVING IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER KDIK AND
KHEI ARE STILL A QUARTER AND HALF MILE RESPECTIVELY. WILL CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY FOR NOW AND CAN ALWAYS DROP IT EARLY IF VISIBILITIES
REBOUND QUICKLY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH STRATUS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AND WEST TO EAST. MADE SOME MINOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE. COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST LAST
NIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEARED BEFORE FOG DEVELOPED. ADJUSTED MORNING
TEMPERATURE RISE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD START.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
RECENT SNOW COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RADIATE INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRESH SURFACE MOISTURE SOURCE AND
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES
ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHERE THE
SKY HAS CLEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. ONE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY IS BEING REPORTED AT DICKINSON...BEACH AND IN BAKER
MONTANA. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOW DENSE FOG IN BELFIELD AND BOWMAN. WILL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 16Z. HETTINGER IS
NEARING A CLEAR POCKET AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE TRYING TO FORECAST
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. THE HRRR SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECAST
SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UP UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z.
THEREAFTER...MIXING ENSUES AND CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CANADA
FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLICING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THE
BEST FORCING RESIDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE GEM/GFS AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW
FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SATURDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP OCCURRING...SO THINK IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL.
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
STATEWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS (THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET) IS FORECAST TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ECMWF) OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (GFS). FOR NOW INDICATED A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 7 FORECAST. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KDIK UNTIL 16Z. EXPECT
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z...AND VFR BY 18Z.
ELSEWHERE...KISN AND KMOT HAVE CLEARED...WITH MVFR CEILINGS
REMAINING FOR KBIS AND KJMS. KBIS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS
THROUGH AROUND 18Z WITH KJMS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS UNTIL 21Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ031>033-
040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
646 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LAST COUPLE HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP STRATUS DECK OVER THE FA THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND WILL ADJUST
LITTLE FOR THIS UPDATE. A COOL AND CLOUDY FRIDAY WITH SOME MORNING
FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE FOR THE VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUD TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE FA.
CLOUDS THE MAIN PLAYER WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AS FLURRY/DRIZZLE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE WITH AREA METARS SHOWING VSBYS
ALL HIGHER THAN 5SM. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY
SATURATED BLYR TODAY EXPECTING STRATUS DECK TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
THE VALLEY. COULD BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE HIGHER EAST AND
WEST PORTIONS OF THE FA SCT OUT FIRST AND THE VALLEYS TOPOGRAPHY
SLOWS EROSION OF THE STRATUS DECK. SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME SCT-BKN CIGS LATE AFTN.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING FOR
SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 5C IN THE WEST TO 1C IN THE EAST
WITH SOME SOLAR AND FAVORABLE SW WARMING SFC WIND. SHOULD MELT
SNOW AND REACH INTO THE 40S HWY 200 SOUTH AND FLIRT WITH 40 WHERE
SNOWPACK IS DEEPER WITH MN TREES WARMING EFFICIENTLY TO NEAR 50.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
WEAK FROPA TO BRING CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
SAT PM. DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH AXIS CROSSING THE FA.
ANOTHER SNOW MELTING DAY IF WE CAN MAINTAIN GOOD SUN. MAY HAVE TO
BURN OF SOME FOG GIVEN WEAK SFC WINDS SUN AM.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS CANADA. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY (WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CANADIAN SYSTEM)...THEN BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY.
THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FAST MOVING WEAK UPPER WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ALONG ON THE VALLEY WITH IMPROVING CIGS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN
EDGES. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CIGS INTO THE 2 TO 3K
FT RANGE WITH SOME SCT CU BY 00-02Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
RECENT SNOW COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RADIATE INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRESH SURFACE MOISTURE SOURCE AND
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES
ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHERE THE
SKY HAS CLEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. ONE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY IS BEING REPORTED AT DICKINSON...BEACH AND IN BAKER
MONTANA. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOW DENSE FOG IN BELFIELD AND BOWMAN. WILL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 16Z. HETTINGER IS
NEARING A CLEAR POCKET AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE TRYING TO FORECAST
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. THE HRRR SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECAST
SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UP UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z.
THEREAFTER...MIXING ENSUES AND CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CANADA
FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLICING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THE
BEST FORCING RESIDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE GEM/GFS AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW
FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SATURDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP OCCURRING...SO THINK IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL.
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
STATEWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS (THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET) IS FORECAST TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ECMWF) OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (GFS). FOR NOW INDICATED A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 7 FORECAST. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOST
TERMINALS IN MVFR STATUS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500FT AND 2500FT. KDIK
IS HAS THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR KDIK UNTIL 16Z. EXPECT A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z...AND VFR BY 18Z.
ELSEWHERE...KISN AND KMOT HAVE BEEN ON THE EDGE OF MVFR CIGS FOR
MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECTING THESE TAF SITES TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. KBIS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS THROUGH
18Z WITH KJMS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS UNTIL 21Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ031>033-
040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHERE THE
SKY HAS CLEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. ONE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY IS BEING REPORTED AT DICKINSON...BEACH AND IN BAKER
MONTANA. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOW DENSE FOG IN BELFIELD AND BOWMAN. WILL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 16Z. HETTINGER IS
NEARING A CLEAR POCKET AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE TRYING TO FORECAST
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. THE HRRR SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECAST
SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UP UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z.
THEREAFTER...MIXING ENSUES AND CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CANADA
FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLICING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THE
BEST FORCING RESIDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE GEM/GFS AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW
FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SATURDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP OCCURRING...SO THINK IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL.
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
STATEWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS (THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET) IS FORECAST TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ECMWF) OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (GFS). FOR NOW INDICATED A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 7 FORECAST. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF PARTIAL CLEARING. WITH ANY CLEARING THAT DEVELOPS...PATCHY
FOG MAY RESULT WITH VSBYS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY LIFT AND DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z FRIDAY WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS
DOMINATING THEREAFTER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ031>033-
040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1209 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS SOME POCKETS OF CLEARING ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS FORMING FARTHER WEST. WILL CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY FOG WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS ANY CLEARING COULD RESULT
IN FOG TO COMMENCE. ONCE MIXING ENSUES BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST SASK AT 9 PM CDT. SURFACE
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE MINIMUM NOSING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL. BELIEVE CLEARING WILL BEGIN NORTH CENTRAL LATE THIS
EVENING AND NOSE SOUTH AS IT ALSO ERODES FORM THE SOUTHWEST.
ADJUSTED CLOUDS FOR THIS. ALSO SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN A BIT
LONGER SOUTH CENTRAL UNDER THIS NEW CLOUD PATTERN...RAISED THE
MIN`S ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES SOUTH CENTRAL FROM THE TEENS TO AROUND
20.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
PRETTY SOLID OVERCAST THIS EVENING ACROSS THE STATE SO BEEFED UP
CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY WEST DURING THE FIST COUPLE HOURS THIS
EVENING. DROPPED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
EVENTUALLY DURING THE MID EVENING THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
WEST. ADDED PATCHY FOG WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS SEEM OK SO FAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IMPACTED BY FRESH SNOW COVER.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS MANY ROADS ARE NOW WET OR SLUSH
COVERED. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A QUICK RE-FREEZE DURING
THE EARLY EVENING...RESULTING IN SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST HALF...SLIGHTLY WARMER EAST. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AREAS
THAT DIDN`T RECEIVE AS MUCH RECENT SNOWFALL. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW ELSEWHERE SHOULD HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS MAINTAINED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SEVERAL EMBEDDED
S/WV`S WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. EACH WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...CURRENTLY DEPICTED FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANOTHER ROUND DURING THE
DAY AND EVENING SUNDAY MORE WIDESPREAD. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL
POCKET OF WARM AIR AROUND 5C. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SFC
TEMPERATURES. AS THE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...SFC LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. MAY VERY WELL SEE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS ONLY RAIN WOULD
THEN FALL.
STRONGER EMBEDDED S/WV MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY MORE
ENERGY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
TRANSITIONING OUR FLOW ALOFT TO NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY DAYTIME. LOW
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE LOW COMBINES WITH SUPPORT ALOFT TO PROVIDE A
BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH MODELS GENERATING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUS WENT WITH SHOWERS VERSUS STRATIFORM.
MAY WANT TO CONSIDER THUNDER MENTION IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK AND TDS ARE RATHER
LOW IN THE 30S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK MOVING SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE RIDGE FLATTENING WED
NIGHT-THURSDAY AS RIDGE RIDER S/WV`S MOVE EAST INTO NORTH AMERICAN
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD INTRODUCE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK.
FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EXPECTED (HIGHS 40S/LOWER 50S AND LOWS 25-35). ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EAST...MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY STILL
LOOKING GOOD. COOLER AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES THURSDAY AND ON CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IMPACTED BY FRESH SNOW COVER.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS MANY ROADS ARE NOW WET OR SLUSH
COVERED. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A QUICK RE-FREEZE DURING
THE EARLY EVENING...RESULTING IN SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST HALF...SLIGHTLY WARMER EAST. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AREAS
THAT DIDN`T RECEIVE AS MUCH RECENT SNOWFALL. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW ELSEWHERE SHOULD HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS MAINTAINED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SEVERAL EMBEDDED
S/WV`S WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. EACH WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...CURRENTLY DEPICTED FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANOTHER ROUND DURING THE
DAY AND EVENING SUNDAY MORE WIDESPREAD. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL
POCKET OF WARM AIR AROUND 5C. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SFC
TEMPERATURES. AS THE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...SFC LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. MAY VERY WELL SEE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS ONLY RAIN WOULD
THEN FALL.
STRONGER EMBEDDED S/WV MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY MORE
ENERGY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
TRANSITIONING OUR FLOW ALOFT TO NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY DAYTIME. LOW
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE LOW COMBINES WITH SUPPORT ALOFT TO PROVIDE A
BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH MODELS GENERATING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUS WENT WITH SHOWERS VERSUS STRATIFORM.
MAY WANT TO CONSIDER THUNDER MENTION IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK AND TDS ARE RATHER
LOW IN THE 30S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK MOVING SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE RIDGE FLATTENING WED
NIGHT-THURSDAY AS RIDGE RIDER S/WV`S MOVE EAST INTO NORTH AMERICAN
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD INTRODUCE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK.
FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EXPECTED (HIGHS 40S/LOWER 50S AND LOWS 25-35). ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EAST...MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY STILL
LOOKING GOOD. COOLER AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES THURSDAY AND ON CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF PARTIAL CLEARING. WITH ANY CLEARING THAT DEVELOPS...PATCHY
FOG MAY RESULT WITH VSBYS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY LIFT AND DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z FRIDAY WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS
DOMINATING THEREAFTER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
LONG TERM...HEINERT
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY AROUND 12Z IN OUR FAR EAST.
QUITE A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS UPSTREAM...AND HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST
THIS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...FEEL THAT EVEN IF WE DID GET SOME SUNNY BREAKS...WE WOULD
MIX AND STRATOCU WOULD REFORM. THUS THINKING TODAY IS A MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME CLEARING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BY
LATER IN THE DAY. SOME FLURRIES ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING
OUT OF THE STRATUS...MAYBE EVEN A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
THE SATURATION DEPTH DECREASES AND WE POTENTIALLY LOSE ICE FORMATION
IN THE CLOUDS. THINK MOST OF THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY...WITH 25 TO 35 KTS AT
925 MB THIS MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE...BUT GIVEN
THE BEST PRESSURE RISES STAY EAST OF THE AREA AND THE STRATUS
LIMITING MIXING...THINK WE WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW...SUSTAINED 20
TO 30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. GIVEN THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...DO
NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BLOWING
SNOW...BUT SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS COINCIDE.
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WENT
ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE WE HAVE SNOW COVER...WHERE TEENS SEEM PROBABLE. A WEAK WAVE
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY TO GET ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE GROUND. BUT THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
STEADY OFF OR SLOWLY RISE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SOMEWHAT DIRTY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS SMALL PIECES OF
ENERGY BREAK AWAY FROM FROM ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY IS CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH IN AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH...BUT SOME ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE
TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
QUITE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.
GIVEN THIS IS THE CASE...THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS...SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID.
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE UP THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. WITH DEEPENING
LOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS
THROUGHOUT THE THE DAY.
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST 925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO
THE LOWERS 20S...AND HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS....BUT POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH IF WE ARE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY MIX. COULD BE THE WARMEST
DAY SINCE EARLY OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOTCHING 925 HPA TEMPS BACK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WITH DRY ENVIRONMENT...AM EXPECTING DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH COOLER YET UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING UP LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
MVFR STRATUS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
PARTIAL CLEARING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND THROUGH PARTS OF SW
MN/NW IA IS EXPECTED. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
GUSTY BENEATH THE STRATUS AS WELL...GENERALLY GUSTING IN 20-25KT
RANGE. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WE COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE...BUT WITH SOME MELTING SNOW ADDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...DECIDED TO LEAVE A MENTION OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOR
KFSD/KSUX DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...SO ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
641 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY AROUND 12Z IN OUR FAR EAST.
QUITE A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS UPSTREAM...AND HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST
THIS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...FEEL THAT EVEN IF WE DID GET SOME SUNNY BREAKS...WE WOULD
MIX AND STRATOCU WOULD REFORM. THUS THINKING TODAY IS A MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME CLEARING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BY
LATER IN THE DAY. SOME FLURRIES ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING
OUT OF THE STRATUS...MAYBE EVEN A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
THE SATURATION DEPTH DECREASES AND WE POTENTIALLY LOSE ICE FORMATION
IN THE CLOUDS. THINK MOST OF THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY...WITH 25 TO 35 KTS AT
925 MB THIS MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE...BUT GIVEN
THE BEST PRESSURE RISES STAY EAST OF THE AREA AND THE STRATUS
LIMITING MIXING...THINK WE WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW...SUSTAINED 20
TO 30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. GIVEN THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...DO
NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BLOWING
SNOW...BUT SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS COINCIDE.
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WENT
ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE WE HAVE SNOW COVER...WHERE TEENS SEEM PROBABLE. A WEAK WAVE
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY TO GET ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE GROUND. BUT THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
STEADY OFF OR SLOWLY RISE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SOMEWHAT DIRTY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS SMALL PIECES OF
ENERGY BREAK AWAY FROM FROM ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY IS CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH IN AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH...BUT SOME ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE
TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
QUITE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.
GIVEN THIS IS THE CASE...THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS...SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID.
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE UP THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. WITH DEEPENING
LOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS
THROUGHOUT THE THE DAY.
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST 925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO
THE LOWERS 20S...AND HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS....BUT POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH IF WE ARE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY MIX. COULD BE THE WARMEST
DAY SINCE EARLY OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOTCHING 925 HPA TEMPS BACK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WITH DRY ENVIRONMENT...AM EXPECTING DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH COOLER YET UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING UP LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SEEING IFR
TO MVFR CIGS. GOOD COVERAGE OF STRATUS UPSTREAM...AND THUS THINK OUR
TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING OF THIS.
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30 KTS AT KFSD AND
KSUX...BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...WE COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THUS DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FOG MENTION
IN. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
BEST FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...SO ONLY KEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ080-081-
089-090.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ014-
021-022-032.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ002-003-
013.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
403 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY AROUND 12Z IN OUR FAR EAST.
QUITE A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS UPSTREAM...AND HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST
THIS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...FEEL THAT EVEN IF WE DID GET SOME SUNNY BREAKS...WE WOULD
MIX AND STRATOCU WOULD REFORM. THUS THINKING TODAY IS A MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME CLEARING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BY
LATER IN THE DAY. SOME FLURRIES ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING
OUT OF THE STRATUS...MAYBE EVEN A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
THE SATURATION DEPTH DECREASES AND WE POTENTIALLY LOSE ICE FORMATION
IN THE CLOUDS. THINK MOST OF THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY...WITH 25 TO 35 KTS AT
925 MB THIS MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE...BUT GIVEN
THE BEST PRESSURE RISES STAY EAST OF THE AREA AND THE STRATUS
LIMITING MIXING...THINK WE WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW...SUSTAINED 20
TO 30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. GIVEN THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...DO
NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BLOWING
SNOW...BUT SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS COINCIDE.
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WENT
ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE WE HAVE SNOW COVER...WHERE TEENS SEEM PROBABLE. A WEAK WAVE
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY TO GET ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE GROUND. BUT THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
STEADY OFF OR SLOWLY RISE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SOMEWHAT DIRTY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS SMALL PIECES OF
ENERGY BREAK AWAY FROM FROM ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY IS CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH IN AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH...BUT SOME ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE
TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
QUITE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.
GIVEN THIS IS THE CASE...THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS...SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID.
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE UP THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. WITH DEEPENING
LOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS
THROUGHOUT THE THE DAY.
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST 925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO
THE LOWERS 20S...AND HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS....BUT POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH IF WE ARE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY MIX. COULD BE THE WARMEST
DAY SINCE EARLY OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOTCHING 925 HPA TEMPS BACK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WITH DRY ENVIRONMENT...AM EXPECTING DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH COOLER YET UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING UP LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH 12Z...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEST TO EAST DURING
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS
INITIALLY DUE TO WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS...BUT AFTER 20Z-22Z TIME
FRAME...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING BAND OF SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
KYKN-KFSD-KMML/KTKC LINE...PRODUCING LIFR-VLIFR VISIBILITY IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND...INCLUDING KSUX/KSPW...MAY
SEE PERIODS OF SLEET MIXING WITH RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
CHANGE TO IFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING KMHE/KHON...ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL...THOUGH MVFR
VISIBILITY STILL EXPECTED AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY AT OR ABOVE 25KT FOR
KFSD/KSUX TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ080-081-
089-090.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ014-
021-022-032.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ002-003-
013.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1243 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 57 FOR COUNTIES
ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 281 (MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
WILL BE ACROSS LA SALLE...MCMULLEN...AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES.
UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST TOWARDS THE COAST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
GIVE INCREASING CIN.
UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FAR NORTHWEST CWA AT 06Z...WITH
SEVERE TSTMS OCCURRING JUST NORTHWEST OF COT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...WITH
A HAIL THREAT ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 281. UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST
SEVERE THREAT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN INCREASING CIN ALONG THE COAST.
NEVERTHELESS...HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS IN VCT TAF 08Z-12Z AND VCSH IN
CRP TAF 10Z-13Z. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...A TRANSITION FROM IFR TO
VFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL
BE AT VFR LEVELS BY 15-17Z AS STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR PUSH INTO SOUTH TX BEHIND A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN MAVERICK TO UVALDE COUNTIES.
HAVE BEEN MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ALL NIGHT...BUT
NEEDED THE PUSH OF THIS FRONT TO BE ABLE TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CAP...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT HAS FINALLY BEGUN. ENVIRONMENT ABOVE
THE CAP IS CONDUCIVE TO RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY
HIGH CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HRRR AND RAP HAVE GOTTEN MORE
ENERGETIC WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND IF THE FRONT
CAN CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
GENERAL BEHAVIOR OR STORMS SO FAR HAS BEEN A RAPID
DEVELOPMENT...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DECLINE. THAT MAY BE THE PLAN
ALL NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 82 62 72 63 80 / 20 30 40 40 30
VICTORIA 78 55 66 58 76 / 20 20 50 50 40
LAREDO 81 61 77 62 88 / 20 10 20 30 20
ALICE 82 59 71 60 80 / 20 20 30 40 30
ROCKPORT 79 61 70 64 77 / 20 30 50 50 40
COTULLA 78 56 70 57 82 / 10 10 20 30 20
KINGSVILLE 81 61 74 63 83 / 20 30 40 40 30
NAVY CORPUS 80 63 70 65 76 / 20 30 50 50 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1126 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN MAVERICK TO UVALDE COUNTIES.
HAVE BEEN MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ALL NIGHT...BUT
NEEDED THE PUSH OF THIS FRONT TO BE ABLE TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CAP...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT HAS FINALLY BEGUN. ENVIRONMENT ABOVE
THE CAP IS CONDUCIVE TO RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY
HIGH CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HRRR AND RAP HAVE GOTTEN MORE
ENERGETIC WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND IF THE FRONT
CAN CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
GENERAL BEHAVIOR OR STORMS SO FAR HAS BEEN A RAPID
DEVELOPMENT...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DECLINE. THAT MAY BE THE PLAN
ALL NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 82 62 72 63 / 20 20 30 40 40
VICTORIA 64 78 55 66 58 / 40 20 20 50 50
LAREDO 62 81 61 77 62 / 20 10 10 20 30
ALICE 64 82 59 71 60 / 20 10 20 30 40
ROCKPORT 67 79 61 70 64 / 30 20 30 50 50
COTULLA 61 78 56 70 57 / 30 10 10 20 30
KINGSVILLE 67 81 61 74 63 / 20 20 30 40 40
NAVY CORPUS 68 80 63 70 65 / 20 20 30 50 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
359 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM OHIO TO LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
LOCAL MODELS BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 5PM. HRRR GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS AROUND 300 J/KG AT 19Z/3PM.
SURFACE AND 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 850 MB WINDS ARE INITIALLY IN THE 40
TO 50 KNOT RANGE BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO 15 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. DEW POINTS LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY
MIDNIGHT WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE
DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAD PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 10 MB IN 6 HOURS THROUGH 12Z/8AM
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS BUT EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 229 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND MILD AND DRY. FOLLOWING A COOL START WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
PEAKING NEAR NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
CLOSED LOW...WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP GENERATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY...RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE WITH GULF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND OVER LINGERING
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING
INSITU WEDGE WILL KEEP MONDAY WET AND GLOOMY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND INSITU WEDGE EASTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AREAS TO
THE FAR WEST WILL HAVE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN BUT COULD SEE THE BULK
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS FROM THE LOW TRACKING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WEST WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50
OF AN INCH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRESSURE FALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WOULD SUGGEST WEDGE WILL ERODE BY MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY REDUCE THESE PRESSURE FALL AND KEEP THE WEDGE
OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS WEDGE REMAINS...LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR RAIN ENTERING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
HANGING ON ALL DAY MONDAY. POPS CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST AS BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY EXITS EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE NOT GIVING UP ON WINTER JUST YET. THEY ARE BRINGING
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF INTO A CLOSED
LOW...ACROSS THE GULF STATES TUESDAY THEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR A COLD RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECM KEEPS BULK...IF NOT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND THEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS HAPPENS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE WITH
IT...WITH A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID
COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT WEDNESDAY...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE P-TYPE. RIGHT
NOW...TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARY LAYER ARE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ARE REDUCED TO WESTERN SLOPES FOLLOWING
THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZES...DRIZZLE- PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
THE LIKELY P-TYPE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE
A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS
ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SHALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT LYH AND ROA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST AREA GETS
INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN.
AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL CROSS
THROUGH ROA BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE 18Z
START OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND WILL SHIFT AT KLYH
AROUND 19Z/3PM. HRRR AND INSTABILITY ANALYSIS SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED SOME THUNDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE KDAN
AIRPORT THROUGH 8PM.
THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE
OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD REACH BLF/LWB AROUND 5PM...BCB/ROA AT
7-8PM...AND LYH/DAN BY MIDNIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF
40KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD VFR.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN...AS WELL AS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS/JJM
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
207 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WET WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...
RADAR TRENDS SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVED EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SPC
ANALYSIS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. LIFTED INDEX VALUES WERE ALSO LOWERING
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT EAST OF DANVILLE WHERE THERE HAS BEEN
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.
THE SHALLOW WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES
CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN THE SOUTHEAST...
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WILL THEN HEAD DOWNHILL...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS
OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY...SLOWED A LITTLE BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH
CENTER WILL SLIDE EAST ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST. DYNAMICS AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF REACH OUR AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SLOWLY INCREASE POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID
30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY
AND REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY. A CLOUDY AND RAINY MONDAY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER
40S IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER ILLINOIS TUESDAY MORNING WILL OPEN UP
AND TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SHALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT LYH AND ROA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST AREA GETS
INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN.
AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL CROSS
THROUGH ROA BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE 18Z
START OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND WILL SHIFT AT KLYH
AROUND 19Z/3PM. HRRR AND INSTABILITY ANALYSIS SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED SOME THUNDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE KDAN
AIRPORT THROUGH 8PM.
THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE
OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD REACH BLF/LWB AROUND 5PM...BCB/ROA AT
7-8PM...AND LYH/DAN BY MIDNIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF
40KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD VFR.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN...AS WELL AS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
519 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WET WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY...
998 MB CYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WILL GET PROPELLED
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WARM MOIST AIR...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST. SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW IS RACING EAST...AND AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT. THIS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR
FCST AREA AT LEAST 6 TO 8 HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ENTERING OUR
WESTERN CWA...WEST OF I-77 AROUND LUNCH TIME TODAY...THEN MOVING
OVER THE MTNS BETWEEN NOON AND 2PM. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME.
THIS INITIAL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW KINDA PUTS A CLOUD ON THE
FORECAST. WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING OUR FCST AREA AROUND
NOON...THIS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR US TO REACH FULL SOLAR
POTENTIAL TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY. THE
ONLY PLACE MODELS BRING CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IS OUR PIEDMONT
COUNTIES WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SUN PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
AS SUCH...THIS MAY BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR STRONGER STORMS. FROM
THE FOOTHILLS WEST...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUT A BIG QUESTION
MARK ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL BE AVAILIBLE TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION...NEW SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. THAT SAID...THERE SHOULD BE A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT
REDEVELOPS ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...JUST NOT CONFIDENT ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME OVERLY ROBUST.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...CURRENT FORECAST IS DETAILED TO REFLECT
TWO POTENTIAL PRECIP EPISODES TODAY. ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE AREA BETWEEN
11AM(BLUEFIELD)-3PM(DANVILLE)...AND A SECOND UPTICK IN POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 6PM(BLUEFIELD)-10PM(DANVILLE).
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WILL THEN HEAD DOWNHILL...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS
OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY...SLOWED A LITTLE BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH
CENTER WILL SLIDE EAST ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST. DYNAMICS AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF REACH OUR AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SLOWLY INCREASE POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID
30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY
AND REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY. A CLOUDY AND RAINY MONDAY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER
40S IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER ILLINOIS TUESDAY MORNING WILL OPEN UP
AND TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY...
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAY YIELD LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEW
RIVER...GREENBRIER...AND ROANOKE VALLEYS...VCNTY OF KBLF/KLWB/KROA.
ANY FOG THAT IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z...WITH SKIES
STAYING VFR WITH INCREASING CU/TCU IN THE WEST BY MIDDAY. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE COMMON.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA WILL REACH BLF/LWB AROUND
16Z/NOON TODAY...REACHING BCB/ROA AROUND 18Z AND TO NEAR KDAN
AROUND 20Z. THIS INITIAL STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS RACED OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD REACH BLF/LWB AROUND
21Z...BCB/ROA...23Z...LYH/DAN 01Z.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF
40KTS. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD VFR. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN...AS WELL AS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1121 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
FLAT TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING.
LATEST FOG PRODUCT SHOWS SOME STRATUS/FOG EAST OF A CRAWFORD TO
ALLIANCE LINE. HRRR SHOWS THESE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HANGING
AROUND UNTIL AROUND 9 AM BEFORE LIFTING. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FLATTER WITH THE TRANSITORY RIDGING TODAY AND EVEN SHOWS WK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH IS NR
THE UT/WY STATELINE THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE ENE REACHING
NORTHEAST WYOMING BY THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES FOR A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND REMAIN VIRGA AS THE 30+F
SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 40S WEST AND 50S TO MAYBE NR 60 OUT ON THE
ERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS WELL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
IN AND AROUND VIRGA SHOWERS. FLOW BACKS OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ADDL COOLING IN THE
MID-LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH...EXPECT INSTABILITIES TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE TO CONVECTION SATURDAY. DONT THINK THAT THE AREA WILL
SEE MUCH BEFORE NOON SATURDAY...WITH COVERAGE TO INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES WILL FALL TO AROUND -1C DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE BUMPED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 INTO THE
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY IN ADDITION TO ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR
SATURDAY...WITH LOW 60S A GOOD BET ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WRN PANHANDLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...THE SRN ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS LEAVING
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF A 140+
KNOT H3 JET STREAK DIVING SOUTH OF BC/ALBERTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. ADDED THUNDER MENTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS FOR
SNOW AMOUNTS...THE HIER ELEVATIONS OF SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES WILL SEE
ANOTHER 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANY
ADVECTION IS NEGLIGIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
LONG RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT THEN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
IN ADDITION...BY DAY 7 AND 8 MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT SOLUTION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
DURING THE WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING FROM PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW TO COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE AND BUILDS NORTHWARD. ALL MODELS STILL SHOW A
DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOW A BIT STRONGER WITH A MORE
DEFINED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST QPF VALUES
ARE A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
JET AND MORE INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES OVER 500 J/KG INTO EARLY MONDAY.
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 40 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE RIDGES. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH INTO MONDAY WITH COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LLVL INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S
DURING THE DAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING EASTWARD OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INCREASING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. SOME READING
IN THE LOW 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR EASTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THIS RIDGE QUICKLY WEAKENING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM LAST NIGHTS 00Z MODEL
RUNS. THIS GENERAL INCONSISTENCY BEYOND DAY 6 HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ALL WINTER LONG WHEN MODELS HAVE INDICATED A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW
SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
18 TO 24 HOURS LATER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF. STARTED TO INCREASE POP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. FURTHER OUT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE 2ND WEEKEND OF
APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL AERODROMES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS FROM INCREASING MOISTURE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
40S WEST AND 50S EAST. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS RETURNING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
FLAT TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING.
LATEST FOG PRODUCT SHOWS SOME STRATUS/FOG EAST OF A CRAWFORD TO
ALLIANCE LINE. HRRR SHOWS THESE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HANGING
AROUND UNTIL AROUND 9 AM BEFORE LIFTING. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FLATTER WITH THE TRANSITORY RIDGING TODAY AND EVEN SHOWS WK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH IS NR
THE UT/WY STATELINE THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE ENE REACHING
NORTHEAST WYOMING BY THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES FOR A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND REMAIN VIRGA AS THE 30+F
SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 40S WEST AND 50S TO MAYBE NR 60 OUT ON THE
ERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS WELL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
IN AND AROUND VIRGA SHOWERS. FLOW BACKS OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ADDL COOLING IN THE
MID-LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH...EXPECT INSTABILITIES TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE TO CONVECTION SATURDAY. DONT THINK THAT THE AREA WILL
SEE MUCH BEFORE NOON SATURDAY...WITH COVERAGE TO INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES WILL FALL TO AROUND -1C DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE BUMPED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 INTO THE
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY IN ADDITION TO ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR
SATURDAY...WITH LOW 60S A GOOD BET ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WRN PANHANDLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...THE SRN ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS LEAVING
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF A 140+
KNOT H3 JET STREAK DIVING SOUTH OF BC/ALBERTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. ADDED THUNDER MENTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS FOR
SNOW AMOUNTS...THE HIER ELEVATIONS OF SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES WILL SEE
ANOTHER 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANY
ADVECTION IS NEGLIGIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
LONG RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT THEN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
IN ADDITION...BY DAY 7 AND 8 MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT SOLUTION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
DURING THE WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING FROM PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW TO COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE AND BUILDS NORTHWARD. ALL MODELS STILL SHOW A
DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOW A BIT STRONGER WITH A MORE
DEFINED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST QPF VALUES
ARE A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
JET AND MORE INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES OVER 500 J/KG INTO EARLY MONDAY.
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 40 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE RIDGES. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH INTO MONDAY WITH COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LLVL INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S
DURING THE DAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING EASTWARD OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INCREASING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. SOME READING
IN THE LOW 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR EASTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THIS RIDGE QUICKLY WEAKENING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM LAST NIGHTS 00Z MODEL
RUNS. THIS GENERAL INCONSISTENCY BEYOND DAY 6 HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ALL WINTER LONG WHEN MODELS HAVE INDICATED A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW
SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
18 TO 24 HOURS LATER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF. STARTED TO INCREASE POP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. FURTHER OUT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE 2ND WEEKEND OF
APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KAIA...AND KCDR WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CIGS
AROUND 1K FEET AGL EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z...WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WITH DISSIPATING LOW CIGS. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WINDS MAY GUST
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
40S WEST AND 50S EAST. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS RETURNING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
322 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
OUR CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH NM...AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY. SOME WEAK ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN RANGES...WHILE SCT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN PLAINS. SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW EXTENSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THIS
MORNING OVER OUR SERN CORNER...THE NAM HOLDS ON TO EXTENSIVE PRECIP
WHILE THE HRRR DRIES THINGS OUT PRETTY QUICKLY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO
BE A BIT TOO DRY WHILE THE NAM AND WRF MAY BE OVERDONE. WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS OVER PROWERS...BACA...AND ERN LAS ANIMAS THIS
MORNING...BUT AMTS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE.
SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY 6000-6500 FEET AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
7K FOOT RANGE TODAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AND H7 TEMPS
WILL FALL FROM AROUND MINUS 4 TO MINUS 8 OR SO BY MONDAY MORNING.
BUT...PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO LOW ELEVATION SNOW
POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT. OVER THE MTS...PERSISTENT SHSN
CONTINUE TODAY...AND WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY PEAKS. AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE
MORNING ZONE PACKAGE. ANOTHER TWO TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER PEAKS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME OVERNIGHT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME COLD
MORNING LOWS LATER TONIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
ON MONDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WL BE FOUND OVR THE AREA. A PASSING
DISTURBANCE AND SOME LINGERING MSTR WL MEAN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MON WL LIKELY BE
A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. UPR RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED OVR THE AREA
FOR TUE AND WED...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS BOTH DAYS. THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED OVR THE
AREA ON THU AS AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BACKS INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS ON
THU...BRINGING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AN
INCREASE IN MSTR OVR THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVR THE MTNS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LOWER EAST
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTNS WHERE THE UPSLOPE WL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS A WEAK
UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE ROCKIES. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
UPR TROF...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM
BRINGING PCPN AND COOLER TEMPS TO MOST OF THE AREA THRU THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MUCH OF SERN CO. AFTER
A SHORT LULL THIS MORNING...WILL SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY PICK UP AGAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THEN WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. FZG LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY 7500-8000 FEET TODAY...AND THE MTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OBSCD WITH SCT-NRMS SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS VC THE TAF
SITES TODAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES
IN THE TAFS. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE AT KALS...WHICH SAW
SOME LIGHT SHSN OVERNIGHT...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PC MORNING
FG OR BR FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
440 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY...
...INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
TODAY...A WEAK MID LVL DISTURBANCE AT 500 MBS WILL PASS OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER LIFTING SLOWLY NWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NRN SECTIONS TODAY BUT SOME THINNING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH RECOVERING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES SHOULD ALLOW SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER SOUTH...LESS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S COASTAL COUNTIES AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NRN AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS AT
925 MBS LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING S WINDS TO STAY UP IN THE 5-10 MPH
RANGE. OVERALL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE H8-H5 LAYER PREFRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MON-TUE...THE SRN BRANCH OF THE H30-H20 JET STREAM HAS EXPANDED ACRS
THE NA CONTINENT WITH THE 100KT ISOTACH EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE
HATTERAS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH A 120KT CORE EXTENDING FROM
THE LWR MS VALLEY TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THIS JET IS POSITIONED OVER A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE NRN
GULF COAST AND WILL INDUCE A NEW STORM SYSTEM OUT OF A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRES OVER W TX.
THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A 100KT
NRN STREAM JET DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW...FORCING THE SRN STREAM TO
SHIFT OF A LIFTING ORIENTATION BY DAYBREAK MON BEFORE STRENGTHENING
TO A 140-150KT CORE BY DAYBREAK TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STORM
SYSTEM LIFT RAPIDLY NE WHILE DVLPG INTO A RATHER POTENT 980MB LOW AS
IT PASSES OVER NEW ENGLAND EN ROUTE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TUE NIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH
THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE THRU CENTRAL FL MON NIGHT
THRU TUE. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NRN STREAM JET HAS PLENTY OF
UPSTREAM ENERGY LEFT TO FEED INTO THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN...CAN SEE
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE PRESENT FCST REASONING AS RESULTING
W/NWRLY FLOW BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHUNT A
LATE SEASON COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL FL BY BY SUNSET TUE. MID/UPR LVL
DYNAMIC HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH A GOOD
UPR LVL DIVERGENCE COUPLET COINCIDENT WITH MID LVL OMEGA LIFT...
WITH A TRAILING MID VORT MAX INDICATING SUSTAINED MID LVL SUPPORT.
WX WILL BE DRY TO START AFT SUNRISE MON AS SUBSTANTIAL MID LVL DRY
AIR REMAIN IN PLACE. ALSO...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DENSE
FIELD OF MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PRECEDE THE FROPA THAT WILL
HAMPER SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT
APPEARS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP CHC/SLGT CHC OF AFTN POPS IN THE
FCST AFT 18Z MON.
PRECIP CHANCES BCMG LIKELY AREAWIDE BTWN 00Z TUE AND 00Z WED WITH
INTENSITY OF AND CONVECTION REMAINING THE BIG QUESTION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INCREASE PWAT VALUES AT KMCO TO ARND 1.7" BY 06Z TUE WITH
0-3KM HELICITY INCREASING TO BTWN 300-350 M2/S2...CAPE VALUES
CLIMBING OVER 2000 J/KG...ARND 1500...ACCOMPANIED BY 45KT-50KT SW
WINDS THRU THE H95-H70 LYR BY DAYBREAK TUE. GFS/ECMWF TIMING FOR THE
SQUALL LINE IT PRETTY CLOSE...PUSHING IT THRU CENTRAL FL BTWN 12Z
TUE AND 00Z WED. A DISTINCT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR WX REMAINS
IN PLAY. HODOGRAPHS INDICATE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...THOUGH THE INCREASING HELICITY SUGGESTS ROTATING STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. H50 TEMPS ARND -8C INDICATES LARGE HAIL THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.
THE PERSISTENT S/SWRLY FLOW WILL PUSH MON AFTN TEMPS INTO THE M80S
ALONG THE COAST AND U80S/L90S INTERIOR WHILE HOLDING OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS IN THE U60S/L70S INTERIOR...L/M70S ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU...RAIN COOLED AIR AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TUE MAX/MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S ALONG AND N
OF I-4...L/M80S TO THE S. POST FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION TUE NIGHT
WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE L/M50S ALONG AND N OF I-4...U50S/L60S ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST.
WED-SAT...
SEASONABLE WX CONDITIONS THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
STRONG POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACRS THE GOMEX AND INTO THE
W ATLC. POST FRONTAL COOL DOWN WILL BE LIMITED TO WED WITH MAX TEMPS
DIPPING INTO THE L/M70S N OF I-4...HOLDING IN THE M/U70S TO THE S...
MIN TEMPS HOLDING IN THE L/M50S OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT U50S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.
THE COOL AIRMASS WILL MODIFY THRU LATE WEEK AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DVLP. MAX/MIN TEMPS ON THU
WILL RECOVER TO WITHIN 5F OF CLIMO AVG (U70S/L80S AND U50S/L60S
RESPECTIVELY) AND HOLD STEADY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. EXTENDED MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLD COASTAL SHRAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE
DEEPENING ERLY FLOW...BUT THESE WOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AND WILL
NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH 07/06Z. A SMALL AFTERNOON SHOWER CHC
AT KDAB AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AFT 19Z. UPPER LVL CIRRUS WILL AFFECT
NRN TERMINALS INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...S WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME SSE/SE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT LATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
MON-MON NIGHT...STORM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RIDE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE THE
ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE...SUPPRESSING IT INTO THE FL STRAITS.
INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE TO FRESH
SRLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY...BCMG FRESH TO STRONG AFT MIDNIGHT MON
INTO TUE AS A SQUALL LINE PRESSES INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG SWRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL AS THE
SQUALL LINE PRESSES THRU CENTRAL FL. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICKUP OUT OF THE W/NW
AFT SUNSET AS A POST FRONTAL WIND SURGE BOOSTS SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO
THE 20-25KT RANGE. THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAVE THE LCL
ATLC FETCH PROTECTED...LIMITING SEAS TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT
OFFSHORE. EVEN SO...THESE WILL CONSIST OF ROUGH SHORT PD WIND WAVES
THAT WILL MAKE LOCAL BOATING CONDITIONS QUITE HAZARDOUS.
WED-NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE DAY AS A
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH. EVEN SO...
OVERALL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THRU LATE AFTN AS
WINDS SPIN DOWN...DIMINISHING TO 10-15KTS BY SUNSET WHILE VEERING
THRU DUE N. THE OPPOSING WIND/GULFSTREAM DIRECTIONS WILL MAINTAIN
ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SEAS 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT
OFFSHORE TO START THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
THU-THU NIGHT...HI PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE W ATLC AND GENERATE A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE THRU THE DAY...VEERING TO DUE E BY
SUNSET AND CONTG OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RHS AROUND 40 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A SE WIND DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. DRIER AIR AND
CRITICAL MIN RH LEVELS EXPECTED BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 66 84 69 / 20 10 40 60
MCO 87 66 88 69 / 10 10 40 60
MLB 84 68 84 72 / 10 10 20 50
VRB 84 67 84 73 / 10 10 20 40
LEE 85 67 87 69 / 10 10 40 60
SFB 87 67 87 70 / 10 10 40 60
ORL 87 68 87 71 / 10 10 40 60
FPR 83 68 84 74 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
420 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY...
...INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
TODAY...A WEAK MID LVL DISTURBANCE AT 500 MBS WILL PASS OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING. LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER LIFTING SLOWLY NWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NRN SECTIONS TODAY BUT SOME THINNING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH RECOVERING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES SHOULD ALLOW SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER SOUTH...LESS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S COASTAL COUNTIES AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NRN AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS AT
925 MBS LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING S WINDS TO STAY UP IN THE 5-10 MPH
RANGE. OVERALL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE H8-H5 LAYER PREFRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MON-TUE...THE SRN BRANCH OF THE H30-H20 JET STREAM HAS EXPANDED ACRS
THE NA CONTINENT WITH THE 100KT ISOTACH EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE
HATTERAS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH A 120KT CORE EXTENDING FROM
THE LWR MS VALLEY TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THIS JET IS POSITIONED OVER A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE NRN
GULF COAST AND WILL INDUCE A NEW STORM SYSTEM OUT OF A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRES OVER W TX.
THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A 100KT
NRN STREAM JET DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW...FORCING THE SRN STREAM TO
SHIFT OF A LIFTING ORIENTATION BY DAYBREAK MON BEFORE STRENGTHENING
TO A 140-150KT CORE BY DAYBREAK TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STORM
SYSTEM LIFT RAPIDLY NE WHILE DVLPG INTO A RATHER POTENT 980MB LOW AS
IT PASSES OVER NEW ENGLAND EN ROUTE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TUE NIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH
THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE THRU CENTRAL FL MON NIGHT
THRU TUE. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NRN STREAM JET HAS PLENTY OF
UPSTREAM ENERGY LEFT TO FEED INTO THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN...CAN SEE
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE PRESENT FCST REASONING AS RESULTING
W/NWRLY FLOW BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHUNT A
LATE SEASON COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL FL BY BY SUNSET TUE. MID/UPR LVL
DYNAMIC HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH A GOOD
UPR LVL DIVERGENCE COUPLET COINCIDENT WITH MID LVL OMEGA LIFT...
WITH A TRAILING MID VORT MAX INDICATING SUSTAINED MID LVL SUPPORT.
WX WILL BE DRY TO START AFT SUNRISE MON AS SUBSTANTIAL MID LVL DRY
AIR REMAIN IN PLACE. ALSO...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DENSE
FIELD OF MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PRECEDE THE FROPA THAT WILL
HAMPER SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT
APPEARS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP CHC/SLGT CHC OF AFTN POPS IN THE
FCST AFT 18Z MON.
PRECIP CHANCES BCMG LIKELY AREAWIDE BTWN 00Z TUE AND 00Z WED WITH
INTENSITY OF AND CONVECTION REMAINING THE BIG QUESTION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INCREASE PWAT VALUES AT KMCO TO ARND 1.7" BY 06Z TUE WITH
0-3KM HELICITY INCREASING TO BTWN 300-350 M2/S2...CAPE VALUES
CLIMBING OVER 2000 J/KG...ARND 1500...ACCOMPANIED BY 45KT-50KT SW
WINDS THRU THE H95-H70 LYR BY DAYBREAK TUE. GFS/ECMWF TIMING FOR THE
SQUALL LINE IT PRETTY CLOSE...PUSHING IT THRU CENTRAL FL BTWN 12Z
TUE AND 00Z WED. A DISTINCT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR WX REMAINS
IN PLAY. HODOGRAPHS INDICATE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...THOUGH THE INCREASING HELICITY SUGGESTS ROTATING STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. H50 TEMPS ARND -8C INDICATES LARGE HAIL THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.
THE PERSISTENT S/SWRLY FLOW WILL PUSH MON AFTN TEMPS INTO THE M80S
ALONG THE COAST AND U80S/L90S INTERIOR WHILE HOLDING OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS IN THE U60S/L70S INTERIOR...L/M70S ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU...RAIN COOLED AIR AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TUE MAX/MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S ALONG AND N
OF I-4...L/M80S TO THE S. POST FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION TUE NIGHT
WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE L/M50S ALONG AND N OF I-4...U50S/L60S ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST.
WED-SAT...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH 07/06Z. A SMALL AFTERNOON SHOWER CHC
AT KDAB AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AFT 19Z. UPPER LVL CIRRUS WILL AFFECT
NRN TERMINALS INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...S WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME SSE/SE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT LATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
MON-MON NIGHT...STORM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RIDE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE THE
ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE...SUPPRESSING IT INTO THE FL STRAITS.
INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE TO FRESH
SRLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY...BCMG FRESH TO STRONG AFT MIDNIGHT MON
INTO TUE AS A SQUALL LINE PRESSES INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG SWRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL AS THE
SQUALL LINE PRESSES THRU CENTRAL FL. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICKUP OUT OF THE W/NW
AFT SUNSET AS A POST FRONTAL WIND SURGE BOOSTS SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO
THE 20-25KT RANGE. THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAVE THE LCL
ATLC FETCH PROTECTED...LIMITING SEAS TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT
OFFSHORE. EVEN SO...THESE WILL CONSIST OF ROUGH SHORT PD WIND WAVES
THAT WILL MAKE LOCAL BOATING CONDITIONS QUITE HAZARDOUS.
WED-NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE DAY AS A
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH. EVEN SO...
OVERALL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THRU LATE AFTN AS
WINDS SPIN DOWN...DIMINISHING TO 10-15KTS BY SUNSET WHILE VEERING
THRU DUE N. THE OPPOSING WIND/GULFSTREAM DIRECTIONS WILL MAINTAIN
ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SEAS 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT
OFFSHORE TO START THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
THU-THU NIGHT...HI PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE W ATLC AND GENERATE A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE THRU THE DAY...VEERING TO DUE E BY
SUNSET AND CONTG OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RHS AROUND 40 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A SE WIND DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. DRIER AIR AND
CRITICAL MIN RH LEVELS EXPECTED BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 66 84 69 / 20 10 40 60
MCO 87 66 88 69 / 10 10 40 60
MLB 84 68 84 72 / 10 10 20 50
VRB 84 67 84 73 / 10 10 20 40
LEE 85 67 87 69 / 10 10 40 60
SFB 87 67 87 70 / 10 10 40 60
ORL 87 68 87 71 / 10 10 40 60
FPR 83 68 84 74 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
424 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WEAK SURFACE FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AT 07Z WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH BY DAYBREAK
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION SETTING UP A WEDGE
PATTERN...ESPECIALLY SINCE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR SPILLING SOUTH TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. A
LEAD BATCH OF RAINS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION A PRE-CURSOR
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS ON THE WAY TODAY FOR SE GEORGIA. AS THE
FRONT SINKS S...MILDER TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO FALL...MOST
NOTICEABLY OVER INLAND SE SOUTH CAROLINA.
TODAY...QUITE A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO TODAY BUT THE OVERALL
PICTURE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS E AND ENE FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL ACCOMPANY
AN ENERGETIC MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING COPIOUS
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE RAINS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST
REGION. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPPER FORCING/DIFLUENCE
PROGGED TO FOCUS A REGION OF MODERATE RAINS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16 LATER THIS
MORNING INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. MANY OF THE 00Z MODELS SPIT
OUT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FROM METTER TO STATESBORO AND
SAVANNAH/BEAUFORT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF THE OUTLIER MODEL WITH THE
LOWEST QPF TALLIES ACROSS OUR REGION...AROUND 1/2 INCH IN GEORGIA.
CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA
MAYBE KEEPING RAIN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS LOWER FROM ABOUT ST. GEORGE TO
JAMESTOWN. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT GIVEN
ONGOING UPSTREAM TRENDS AND RAP ANALYSIS...WE FELT THAT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS WAS WORTH A MENTION S OF I-16.
WITH THE WEDGE PATTERN DIGGING IN AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER MUCH OF THE DAY THAN CURRENT READINGS WE ARE SEEING
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAKES FOR PROBLEMATIC TEMP FORECASTING AS ATYPICAL
DIURNAL CURVES AND STEADY READINGS LIKELY THE STORY FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLY WEATHER AT TIMES. LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EXPAND UNDER THE WEDGE INVERSION WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT. MOSTLY EXPECT SOME MORNING SHOWERS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS
WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT AND THIS WILL LIKELY PLAY INTO THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL MIXING THAT WILL OCCUR. WE REMAIN
IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CLOSELY. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES CAN/T BE RULED OUT EITHER AS HELICITY LOOKS TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA/UPSTATE SC. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AS WELL BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EVEN OUTSIDE ANY STORMS IT
WILL BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET /AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH AT ABOUT 2K FT/.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SC COAST.
LAKE WINDS...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE LAKE SHORES CLOSER TO
THE WARMER LAND AREAS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
TO ACCOUNT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND/OR GUSTS TO 25-30
KT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE JET FORCING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY BUT ONLY BE AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SETTING UP PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND INLAND
LOCALES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN SET UP
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC SETTING UP A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TOWARD DAYBREAK...IF NOT A BIT
SOONER AT KSAV WHERE RAINS WILL BE DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. WE MAINTAINED
SIMILAR TRENDS TO MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING AS RAINS BECOME MORE PREVALENT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
STEADIEST/HEAVIER RAINS AT KSAV AND THAT IS WHERE WE INTRO IFR CIGS
INITIALLY TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING...MODELS
SUGGEST STRATUS SHOULD BUILD-DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND WE HAVE TRENDED IFR IN THE LATER PART OF 06Z TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY BE
TEMPORARY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR HEAVY
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS...AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY VFR WED-FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NOSING OUT OF THE PEE DEE INTO THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT UPSTREAM PINCHING AND SURGING
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LESS THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WILL STILL BEGIN AT 12Z THIS
MORNING BUT THE ONSET OF BETTER PINCHING WITH THE THERMAL/MOISTURE
GRADIENT AND DEVELOPING SURFACE WEDGE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
MORNING OR EVEN THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WERE
MAINTAINED INTO THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY. THE
MESOSCALE GRADIENT LOOKS VERY TRICKY FOR THIS PARTICULAR EVENT AND
WE MADE ONLY SLIGHT OVERALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ON AVERAGE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP LOCALLY WITH
ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM AND IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND COLD ADVECTION...LIKELY PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME DESPITE
THE OUTLIER GFS FORECAST OF PRECIP. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR APPARENT ON
THE 00Z OUN AND DDC SOUNDINGS IS INDICATIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS. IN
ADDITION...THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...ARE
TOO HIGH WITH THEIR SURFACE DEW POINT INITIALIZATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO HRRR AND HOPWRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS SUGGEST
ANY PRECIP THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE SPRINKLES...IF INDEED
ANYTHING WERE TO EVEN DEVELOP IN THE CWA AT ALL.
CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BALANCE LOSS OF FULL
SUNSHINE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY SUCH THAT TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. DOWNSTREAM TEMPS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA COULD EXCEED 60 DEGREES. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL MODERATE OVER THIS MORNING`S READINGS
WITH MOSTLY 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA.
WOLF
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON NICE WARM-UP THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR THE STORM
SYSTEM ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE TOO HIGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THIS CURRENT
REGIME COMPARED TO REALITY AND HAVE LOWERED VALUES SOMEWHAT
THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST WITH THE
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE TRACKING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. FOR NOW THIS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AS OTHER MODELS AGREE
ON KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS AS NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S.
MID TO LATE WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL PULL MILD TO
WARM AIR INTO THE MIDWEST ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND COMBINED
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY VEGETATION...THERE WILL BE AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR GRASS FIRES. WILL BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HWO PRODUCT EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
BY THURSDAY EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT AND INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
PLEASANTLY VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PLUS...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY...WITH
SOME HOURS OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL THROUGH MID
MORNING SUNDAY. ALL CIGS WILL BE 10 KFT OR HIGHER...AS CIRRUS AND
MID CLOUDS PASS OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH DRY AIR BELOW THIS
LEVEL...NO LOWER CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1219 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WAA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR WAS SHOWING TWO AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE FIRST STRETCHED FROM THE
MOOSE LAKE AREA...SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAYWARD. THIS WAS LIGHT RAIN.
ANOTHER AREA HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM BIG FORK EAST TO COOK/ORR
TO ELY. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE RAIN INITIALLY. PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EITHER A WARM LAYER
ENOUGH TO MELT ANY ICE OR A COLUMN NOT SATURATED ENOUGH FOR MUCH
ICE. THE RAP MAX T OVER THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET SHOWS
MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 2C. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE
THE MAIN FACTOR IN WHETHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
FALLS. WE DID EXPAND THE AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT TO INCLUDE MORE OF FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. KPBH WAS 34F OVER 25F AT 02Z. WE
DO EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF H85 WEAK SHORT WAVE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE ONSHORE WINDS KEPT
READINGS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 30S.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE EVENING...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO NW MINNESOTA. THIS WAVE
IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT THERE IS SUFFICIENT WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE BROAD BRUSH SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
900 PM. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS FOG FOR ALL ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND CALM WINDS. MOST AREAS
CAN EXPECT A BATCH OF -SHRA OR -DZ OVERNIGHT WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. LOCATIONS IN THE MN
ARROWHEAD MAY SEE GREATER QPF...AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...AS
WELL AS A SMALL THREAT FOR VERY LIGHT -FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO ICE
ACCUM IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY -FZDZ...WITH COOLER READINGS
ARRIVING IN THE DRIER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE AFTER THE
PRECIP ENDS. THE LOW POPS AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER OVER
THE NRN WISCONSIN AND SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ZONES INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
WE ARE DEFINITELY ENTERING INTO THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE WE START TO
SEE A LOT OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE CASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND PERHAPS BEYOND IN SOME OF
THE TIME PERIODS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF LOWS CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. WE WILL
ALSO WRESTLE WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT SMALL QPF BULLSEYES RANDOMLY
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL GENERALLY KEEP MOST PERIODS DRY FOR NOW.
COULD SEE HAVING TO ADD SOME SMALL POPS AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE AT
SOME POINT...BUT FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE MODEL
RUNS AND AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS TO HIT ANY PARTICULAR
PRECIPITATION AREAS IN THE GRIDS. HAVE ADDED POPS TO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SO WE MAY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO BE ABLE TO HOLD MORE MOISTURE FROM
THE SPRING SNOWMELT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK SHOULD BE LARGELY
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG...WE COULD SEE SOME READINGS A BIT HIGHER THAN
THAT. IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS PEGGING A HIGH TEMP AROUND 70 FOR THE
KBRD AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THEY WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COULD BE A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW POSSIBLY TOWARD THE NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD
THEN COOL A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW STRATUS/FOG HAD YET TO FORM AS OF 0430Z...BUT CEILINGS
FROM 4500-6000FEET HAVE EXPANDED. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...AND WE EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP THERE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING AND WE COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL.
THE HRRR/RAP AND EVEN THE NAM HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. THE NAM/GFS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP LOW
CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SPOTS SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER
UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. WE BACKED OFF ON THE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS CONFIDENCE JUST IS NOT THERE.
WE ADDED SOME LLWS TO MOST OF THE TAF SITES INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 47 27 44 / 10 20 10 10
INL 29 46 25 44 / 10 20 10 10
BRD 32 51 30 49 / 10 20 10 10
HYR 30 49 27 46 / 10 20 10 10
ASX 29 46 27 43 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1156 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATES A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...ZONAL FLOW EXTENDED
FROM THE PACIFIC NW COAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER EAST...A
STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SRN QUEBEC
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE SRN STREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN ARIZONA WITH HT FALLS OF 50 TO 130 METERS
NOTED FROM EL PASO TO TUSCON. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND EASTERN COLORADO. FURTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER
NRN MISSOURI. DECENT SRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE SRLY WINDS...ALLOWED FOR DECENT
MIXING BY MID MORNING WHICH PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. BY 2 PM CDT...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURE RANGED
FROM 57 AT NORTH PLATTE...TO 65 AT VALENTINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SAGGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SHORTLY BEHIND. A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH YET
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE ISOLATED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM GARDEN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY AS INDICATED LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS WHERE CAPES OF 100-250 J/KG EXIST. ALSO...THE
LATEST NAM AND HRRR BOTH FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA.
TONIGHT...THE NAM IS HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN THE NORTH.
BELIEVE THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT WORTH MONITORING. TOMORROW...AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS CO/KS...WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES ESE FROM WY INTO NE LATER IN THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS MODELS ARE GENERATING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LIFT IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE. A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL RUN FROM AROUND ONEILL TO IMPERIAL TOMORROW AS WELL.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH RATHER
LOW CAPES OF ABOUT 100-200 J/KG. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE BEST
ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN FORECASTING
CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...APPROACHING NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...ABUNDANT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CARRY OVER
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS HAVE NEGATIVE LI`S SUNDAY EVENING WITH
UNSTABLE CONDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. INHERITED FCST HAD A
MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY EVENING...AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THIS RIGHT NOW. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL WANE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS
WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING PACIFIC COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MILD TEMPS MONDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FAR
WEST TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE FOR LOWS MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WITH EXPECTED MIXING...LOWS ON THE ORDER OF
MID 30S IN THE WEST...TO UPPER 30S IN THE EAST SEEM TO BE A BETTER
FIT TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE
INHERITED FCST. WITH WARMER LOWS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING...THE
MENTION OF SNOW WAS SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE ONLY THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND A SLIVER OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
MONDAY.
ON MONDAY...STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THE LATEST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH WINDS THIS MORNING...AND IS
INDICATIVE OF ADVISORY SPEED WINDS FROM LATE MORNING MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE RAMPED UP WINDS IN THE GRIDS
AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE SHORT TERM DESK MENTION THE WIND THREAT
IN THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO WIND...VERY COLD H500
TEMPS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
SURFACE HEATING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST AND HAVE LINGERED THEM THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY AIR...LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE INDICATIVE OF A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETTING UP MONDAY
NIGHT AS WARMER H85 AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEY...TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. ON TUESDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH WARMER H85 TEMPS OF 8 TO 14C WILL PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO 10 TO 20 MPH...AS WELL AND
MAY GUST UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND FCST HIGHS IN THE 60S MAY PUSH FIRE
DANGER TO EXTREME OR NEAR CRITICAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE LONG RANGE...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DEVELOPING RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE
THREAT FOR PCPN LATE NEXT WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BE
SUPPRESSED AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...LOW DEW POINTS AND WIND...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY AND WILL MENTION THIS IN
THE HWO. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN
TIER OF STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SRLY STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE LATEST MID RANGE SOLNS ARE
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO WE
MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
EJECTS ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
WEAK SFC FRONT FROM KOGA TO KVTN DRIFTS SOUTH AND GETS HUNG UP
FROM KIML TO KONL ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT
SUNDAY AFTN-EVENING.
DRY AIR BELOW H700MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR ALL AREAS DURING THE THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE 20S...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON MONDAY
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING
BEHIND S/W ENERGY AND BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. IR SATL CONTS
TO SHOW A SLOW EROSION OF LLVL CLOUDS ACRS OUR CWA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE RAP SOUNDINGS HANDLING THIS RH THE BEST. THIS
SUPPORTS CLOUDS ACRS NORTHERN VT AND THE NEK THRU 15Z
TODAY...BEFORE CLRING FINALLY DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT MIXING TO ABOUT 875MB TODAY AND INDICATE TEMPS BTWN 0 AND
-1C AT THIS LEVEL...ADDING 9 TO 10C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U 40S. HAVE NOTED MAVBTV ONLY 43 FOR TODAY...WL TREND 4 TO 5
DEGREES HIGHER...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH INFLUENCE OF FROZEN LAKE
WATERS ON WESTERLY FLW. FEEL GUIDANCE MAY THINK SNOW PACK IS STILL
ACRS THE CPV...BUT RECENT WARM TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY ERODE SNOW
COVERAGE IN THE IMMEDIATE CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT WL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THRU
MONDAY. HAVE NOTED IN THE 00Z GFS WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT AND SOME
MID LVL RH MOVING ACRS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL COOL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS COLDER VALLEYS TO M/U 20S CPV/SLV. WARMING 925MB
TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIDSLOPE THERMAL BELT WL BE
DEVELOPING WITH A RIBBON OF TEMPS IN THE U20S TO MID 30S POSSIBLE
BTWN 1500 AND 3000 FT TONIGHT. FCST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WL BE
TEMPS...WITH LLVL WAA CONTINUING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 0 AND 2C. THINKING WARMEST TEMPS WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES/CPV (AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN) AND PARTS OF THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS. IF WE WERE TO MIX TO 85H COMPLETELY HIGHS COULD APPROACH
60F IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT THINKING WITH HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTN TEMPS WL FALL JUST SHORT IN OUR WARMER
VALLEYS...MAINLY M/U 50S TO U40S/L50S ELSEWHERE.
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SHOW 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS QUICKLY SPREADING FROM
SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 21Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT AND LLVL WAA. IN ADDITION PWS SURGE BTWN 0.50
AND 0.75 AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING TO OUR WEST AND LATEST 00Z
NAM/GFS SHOWING PROGGED SE DOWNSLOPING 85H WINDS BTWN 65 AND 75
KNOTS AROUND 06Z TUES. STRONGEST WINDS ARE CLOSELY TIED WITH
HEAVIEST PRECIP...WHICH WL LIMIT MIXING BUT STILL COULD SEE GUSTS
TO 40 MPH OR SO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WL RESULT IN THE TYPICAL TRRN IMPACTED QPF FIELDS WITH HIGHEST
VALUES AROUND 0.50 ACRS THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS.
ELSEWHERE...QPF ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV WL BE SIMILAR TO OUR
LAST EVENT...BTWN 0.10 AND 0.20"...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACRS
THE SLV. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TWO HEAVIEST QPF
FIELDS SPLITTING OUR CWA...EITHER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE
MID/UPPER LVL DYNAMICS AND BETTER 25H JET OR TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WHERE PWS ARE HIGHER AND NOSE OF LLVL JET ENHANCES THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF
SCENARIO...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO ISSUES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE RISES FROM SNOW MELT ON MONDAY
AND EXPECTED QPF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
ICE JAM OR TWO ACRS OUR NORTHERN RIVERS...OTHERWISE NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. THE DURATION OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE BTWN 3 AND
6 HRS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT QUICKLY
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND PRECIP BECMS SCATTERED. SOME WET SNOW OR
SLEET WL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 2500 FT...BUT ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED...GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES. TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD WARM
BACK INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRNT. EXPECTING ANOTHER BRIEF
ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY BTWN 15Z AND 21Z
TUESDAY...BUT OVERALL RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND BEST
DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WL CONT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW
MELT...EVEN ACRS THE MID/UPPER ELEVATIONS...SO RIVERS WL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT SUNDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS
AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER UPSLOPE FAVORED NORTHERN
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. IT WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH AND GUSTY.
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S. RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH BRISK RETURN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA. MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 25 TO 35 DEGREES...BUT
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER BY 12Z. EXCEPTION
WILL BE SLK WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TILL ABOUT 10Z. DURING
SUNDAY...LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME SKC BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WNW 8-15 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN WEST 8-15 KTS SUNDAY. GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS SUNDAY
EVENING WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY INTO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1136 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF SWIFT CURRENT
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SNAKING INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
ALONG THIS FRONT IN MOUNTRAIL COUNTY MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING
WITH TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED IN NORTHEAST MONTANA.
BOWMAN RADAR WAS INDICATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST BUT BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS ALOFT AND NOT REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
CONTINUE THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTRY
MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL IN THE NORTH. THE HRRR IS
ADVERTISING POTENTIAL OF FOG INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
WITH SATURATION HAVING ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED THERE AND A CALM WIND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER RUGBY...FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. THUS HAVE
EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG INTO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE ABOVE.
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
LATE EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER/TEMPS. A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN PERSISTING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF
FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...DUE TO FAVORABLE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LIGHT WINDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
EARLY EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS.
LOWERED MINS TONIGHT SLIGHTLY BASED ON IMPACTS OF MOST SUBSTANTIAL
SNOW COVER DURING THE DAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX CAN`T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE SHOWER CHANCES YET THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM AROUND GARRISON AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THERE HAS BEEN GROUND TRUTH WITH SHOWERS
REPORTED AT KMOT...KMIB AND K08D...AND 0.01 AT KMOT. SHORTWAVE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS AREA AS IT
MOVES EAST...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP A BIT AS IT MOVES
INTO DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. ANYWAY...KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA COULD KEEP CHANCES
LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH SOME POPS
ALREADY THERE...WILL KEEP THE MENTION GOING...ALTHOUGH WOULD
EXPECT STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE MAKING IT HARD FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT AFTER EARLY EVENING.
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. MOST FAVORED
AREAS LOOK TO BE OVER AND NEAR THE SNOW PACK WHERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTEST. EXPECT A LITTLE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE WEST...THUS WILL LIMIT PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL...OVER SNOW PACK. IF WINDS DO DIMINISH MORE
IN THE SOUTHWEST...COULD SEE FOG HERE AS WELL...WITH DEEPEST SNOW
REMAINING OVER THIS AREA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE GREATER...WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER MOST AREAS AND INCREASING LAPSE RATES
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH...THUS KEPT THE PREVIOUS
BROAD BRUSH FOR MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE...KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM. FIRST WE WILL SEE A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL CANADIAN HIGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
REGARDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...50S MONDAY...WARMING TO 55-65
TUESDAY. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
MOST AREAS AND APPROACHING 70 FAR SOUTH. THEN 50S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH 45-55 FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
AN ISOLD WINTRY MIX IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN FAR NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT THE CHANCE OF ANY IMPACTS TO KISN/KMOT ARE LOW.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. KBIS/KJMS ARE
FAVORED FOR OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH RECENT SNOWMELT AND LIGHT
WINDS...SO HAVE ADDED AN EARLY MORNING TEMPO GROUPS. LATER SUNDAY
MORNING...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 20KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES AT KISN/KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
351 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Latest satellite imagery showing low clouds have spread north
across all of West Central Texas. Aloft, upper level trough was
located over the southwest U.S., with trough axis along the
Arizona/New Mexico border. Ahead of the trough, weak large-scale
ascent was over Texas as evident by a few light showers over the
eastern half of our area.
For today, as the upper level system moves east into the Southern
Plains, mid and upper level forcing will increase across West
Central Texas. Showers will become more widespread especially
across the eastern half of the area. The HRRR convective allowing
model indicates activity picking up over the Heartland and
Northwest Hill Country during the morning hours(after 10Z). Have
the highest POPS (likely to high end chance) across the eastern
1/3 of the area, decreasing to slight chance southwest of a
Sterling City to San Angelo to Junction line as forcing will be
much weaker. The mid level lapse rates will increase to 7 to 8 DEG
C/KM later today so isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A
couple of storms will have the potential to produce small hail,
gusty winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Rainfall
amounts will average 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch, with the higher
amounts across eastern 1/3 of the area. A few areas like the
Northern Edwards Plateau will not even receive a tenth of an inch.
Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s across the western Concho
Valley and along the I-10 corridor.
For tonight, the best large-scale ascent will be located east of
West Central Texas. Will keep the slight chance POPS going across
mainly the Big Country, otherwise going with a dry forecast. Lows
will be in the 40s.
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
On Monday, we may have some lingering showers around the area as
a shortwave currently moving southeast into the Pacific Northwest
out of southwestern Canada will move through the main upper level
trough before it moves east of the area. Have kept the lower end
slight chance PoPs going for the area. If any precipitation
occurs, the main mode would likely be showers again, but an
isolated thunderstorm or two would still be possible as cold
temperatures associated with the upper level low will help
increase lapse rates aloft. In addition, northerly flow at the
surface will bring in drier air resulting in an inverted V
soundings for southern areas, which could lead to gusty winds at
the surface underneath any showers, virga, or thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with this activity.
Tuesday through the middle of the week, we can expect dry
weather, and warming temperatures. Dry northwest flow aloft
Tuesday into Wednesday will be replaced by low amplitude ridging,
or zonal flow Thursday and Friday. Gulf moisture will move back
into the area by the second half of the week as well with
persistent southerly low level flow. After Friday, models disagree
on timing and strength of another possible trough moving through
the area, so have made very minimal changes to the forecast beyond
Day 4.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
With cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation through
Monday for most of the area, fire weather conditions will not be
a concern for most of the area.
However, by Tuesday, rain chances move out, and temperatures
begin to warm back up. Elevated to near critical conditions will
be possible Tuesday through the end of next week, and especially
on Wednesday and Thursday for areas west of an Abilene to Sonora
line, as southerly winds pick up to 15 to 20 mph, and relative
humidity values fall to 15 to 20 percent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 60 46 70 41 73 / 40 20 20 5 0
San Angelo 69 46 72 41 77 / 20 10 20 0 0
Junction 71 46 73 39 78 / 20 10 20 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21/20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1152 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.AVIATION...
MESSY UPPER PATTERN ALONG WITH WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
TOWARD MORNING SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AFTER
9Z. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE BRINGS WARM SECTOR FURTHER INLAND THAN
EARLIER RUNS. ADJUSTED WINDS ACCORDINGLY IN UPCOMING TAFS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/POSITIONING AND AREAL PRECIP COVERAGE
REMAINS QUITE LOW. THINK HRRR HAS HANDLED SHORT TERM TRENDS BEST
AND ANTICIPATE SOME DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT OVERALL BEST COVERAGE ACROSS N/NE PARTS OF SE TX ON
SUNDAY. OIL RIGS OFFSHORE REPORTING VISBYS GENERALLY < 2NM IN SEA
FOG SO LOWERED COASTAL VISIBYS POST WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THRU IN THE LATE AFTN & EVNG HOURS BRINGING SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014/
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...
BOUNDARY ANALYZED JUST ONSHORE AT 02Z. A VEERING WIND WITH HEIGHT
HAS BROUGHT HIGHER SOUTHWESTERN MOISTURE OVER OUR INLAND COOLER
DRIER AIR MASS AND GENERATED EITHER DRIZZLE OR LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING HOURS AS WEAK VORTICITY RIDES OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
OVER THE COMING HOURS AND PROVIDES MORE LIFT. 25HJET STREAK
HEADING OUT OF THE BIG BEND AT 00Z THAT MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
BETTER OVERALL RAIN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY.
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET POSITIONING ITSELF DEAD- CENTER OVER
EASTERN TEXAS SO THESE MORE DIFFULENT UPPER LEVELS WILL ENHANCE
THIS GENTLE WAA PATTERN LIFT. 7-8H WARM LAYER WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTION ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON... PROFILES
EXPECTED TO WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS (AS MID-LAYERS
STAY WARM) TO POSSIBLY TAP INTO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DURING SUNDAY PM...INCREASING STORM THREAT/COVERAGE. OVERCAST AND
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINTAIN A LOWER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM
SUNDAY MORNING`S MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO THE AFTERNOON`S UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S. INLAND PATCHY FOG WITH LOW CEILINGS...POCKETS OF MORE
DENSE SEA FOG...THROUGH AN EARLY MONDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 56 67 52 70 48 / 50 60 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 74 54 72 51 / 40 70 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 62 73 58 72 56 / 40 60 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
904 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
ADJUSTED MOST POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...TO BETTER MATCH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
OUR CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH NM...AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY. SOME WEAK ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN RANGES...WHILE SCT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN PLAINS. SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW EXTENSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THIS
MORNING OVER OUR SERN CORNER...THE NAM HOLDS ON TO EXTENSIVE PRECIP
WHILE THE HRRR DRIES THINGS OUT PRETTY QUICKLY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO
BE A BIT TOO DRY WHILE THE NAM AND WRF MAY BE OVERDONE. WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS OVER PROWERS...BACA...AND ERN LAS ANIMAS THIS
MORNING...BUT AMTS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE.
SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY 6000-6500 FEET AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
7K FOOT RANGE TODAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AND H7 TEMPS
WILL FALL FROM AROUND MINUS 4 TO MINUS 8 OR SO BY MONDAY MORNING.
BUT...PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO LOW ELEVATION SNOW
POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT. OVER THE MTS...PERSISTENT SHSN
CONTINUE TODAY...AND WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY PEAKS. AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE
MORNING ZONE PACKAGE. ANOTHER TWO TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER PEAKS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME OVERNIGHT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME COLD
MORNING LOWS LATER TONIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
ON MONDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WL BE FOUND OVR THE AREA. A PASSING
DISTURBANCE AND SOME LINGERING MSTR WL MEAN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MON WL LIKELY BE
A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. UPR RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED OVR THE AREA
FOR TUE AND WED...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS BOTH DAYS. THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED OVR THE
AREA ON THU AS AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BACKS INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS ON
THU...BRINGING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AN
INCREASE IN MSTR OVR THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVR THE MTNS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LOWER EAST
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTNS WHERE THE UPSLOPE WL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS A WEAK
UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE ROCKIES. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
UPR TROF...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM
BRINGING PCPN AND COOLER TEMPS TO MOST OF THE AREA THRU THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MUCH OF SERN CO. AFTER
A SHORT LULL THIS MORNING...WILL SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY PICK UP AGAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THEN WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. FZG LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY 7500-8000 FEET TODAY...AND THE MTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OBSCD WITH SCT-NRMS SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS VC THE TAF
SITES TODAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES
IN THE TAFS. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE AT KALS...WHICH SAW
SOME LIGHT SHSN OVERNIGHT...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PC MORNING
FG OR BR FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
729 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR DAYBREAK...UPDATED TO LOWER SOME OF MORNING RAIN CHANCES NORTH
OF A LINE FROM HAMPTON TO CHARLESTON. LATEST NAM/HRRR SUGGESTS RAINS
COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP LAYERED AIR MASS
IS DRIER AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW FORECASTED
VALUES AT 11Z.
TODAY...QUITE A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO BUT THE OVERALL PICTURE
REMAINS UNCHANGED AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS E AND ENE FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL ACCOMPANY AN
ENERGETIC MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING COPIOUS
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE RAINS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST
REGION. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPPER FORCING/DIFLUENCE
PROGGED TO FOCUS A REGION OF MODERATE RAINS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16 LATER THIS
MORNING INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. MANY OF THE 00Z MODELS SPIT
OUT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FROM METTER TO STATESBORO AND
SAVANNAH/BEAUFORT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF THE OUTLIER MODEL WITH THE
LOWEST QPF TALLIES ACROSS OUR REGION...AROUND 1/2 INCH IN GEORGIA.
CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA
MAYBE KEEPING RAIN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS LOWER FROM ABOUT ST. GEORGE TO
JAMESTOWN. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT GIVEN
ONGOING UPSTREAM TRENDS AND RAP ANALYSIS...WE FELT THAT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS WAS WORTH A MENTION S OF I-16.
WITH THE WEDGE PATTERN DIGGING IN AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER MUCH OF THE DAY THAN CURRENT READINGS WE ARE SEEING
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAKES FOR PROBLEMATIC TEMP FORECASTING AS ATYPICAL
DIURNAL CURVES AND STEADY READINGS LIKELY THE STORY FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLY WEATHER AT TIMES. LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY EXPAND UNDER THE WEDGE INVERSION WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT. MOSTLY EXPECT SOME MORNING SHOWERS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS
WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT AND THIS WILL LIKELY PLAY INTO THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL MIXING THAT WILL OCCUR. WE REMAIN
IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CLOSELY. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES CAN/T BE RULED OUT EITHER AS HELICITY LOOKS TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEAST GA/UPSTATE SC. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AS WELL BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EVEN OUTSIDE ANY STORMS IT
WILL BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET /AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH AT ABOUT 2K FT/.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SC COAST.
LAKE WINDS...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE LAKE SHORES CLOSER TO
THE WARMER LAND AREAS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
TO ACCOUNT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND/OR GUSTS TO 25-30
KT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE COAST
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
PASSES...THEN SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE JET FORCING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S TUESDAY BUT ONLY BE AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SETTING UP PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND INLAND
LOCALES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN SET UP
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC SETTING UP A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TODAY...WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINS AT KSAV. WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR TAF TRENDS TO
MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AS
RAINS BECOME MORE PREVALENT. LATEST MODELS SUGGESTING KCHS MAY BE
SLOW TO BOTH PRECIPITATE...BUT ALREADY WE ARE SEEING LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING. WE TRENDED KCHS A BIT
MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO PREVAILING RAINS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRATUS SHOULD BUILD-DOWN IN THE WAKE
OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND WE HAVE TRENDED IFR IN THE TONIGHT
PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FROM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT KSAV.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT
SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY BE
TEMPORARY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR HEAVY
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS...AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY VFR WED-FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NOSING OUT OF THE PEE DEE INTO THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT UPSTREAM PINCHING AND SURGING
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LESS THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WILL STILL BEGIN AT 12Z THIS
MORNING BUT THE ONSET OF BETTER PINCHING WITH THE THERMAL/MOISTURE
GRADIENT AND DEVELOPING SURFACE WEDGE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
MORNING OR EVEN THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WERE
MAINTAINED INTO THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY. THE
MESOSCALE GRADIENT LOOKS VERY TRICKY FOR THIS PARTICULAR EVENT AND
WE MADE ONLY SLIGHT OVERALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ON AVERAGE.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP LOCALLY WITH
ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM AND IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND COLD ADVECTION...LIKELY PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
901 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING LIGHT SNOWFALL BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY AS SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN MONTANA.
AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING ISOLATED
THUNDER TO GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF SHORTWAVE STILL
LOOKS TO MOSTLY EXIT EASTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING THOUGH LATEST NAM
RUN HOLDING ON TO WEAK POCKETS OF QPF ALONG DIVIDE AND WYOMING
BORDER AFTER 06Z. WINDS STILL MAIN CONCERN TODAY THOUGH EVEN RECENT
GUIDANCE BACKING OFF BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE NUDGED WINDS TOWARD LATEST HRRR WITH GOOD REPRESENTATION OF
CANYON OUTFLOW FROM CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS...STILL WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. REMAINDER OF GRID
PACKAGE REASONABLE FOR TODAY. NO OTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY AND
EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AS WELL AND EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WELL BEHIND FRONT MAINLY IN SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. THINK FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL STAY UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS
IN MOST AREAS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS NOR NEARLY AS
STRONG AS TODAY.
GK
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE REGION WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE CNTRL AND
NE MOUNTAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE MOIST WNW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE EITHER FRIDAY (GFS) OR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY (ECMWF)
WHICH LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH THE GFS FAVORING A
BACKDOOR TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE DAKOTAS AND BANKING UP AGAINST THE
MONTANA/WYOMING DIVIDE IN A NE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE ECMWF ON
THE OTHER HAND IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE BACKDOOR TROUGH AND
CONSEQUENTLY IS ADVERTISING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS SRN IDAHO
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD AND DRY NORTH FLOW SPREADS
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. PREFERENCE HERE IS THE WARMER/DRIER GFS.
HUSTON
AVIATION...A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED DIGGING SE INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FAVORING THE ERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE SHEARS THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOW
OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST EDGES INLAND. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINAL
SITES...BELIEVE KIDA/KPIH AND KBYI MAY BE MOST AT RISK FOR THIS WITH
UPSLOPE WNW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH KSUN NOT TOTALLY OUT OF
THE MIX. MESO-SCALE WRF MODEL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CONVERGENCE SNOW EVENT WORKING OUT OF THE ARCO REGION AROUND 19Z AND
SPREADING INTO KIDA AND KPIH 20-23Z WITH ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY/LOWER CIGS. ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY MAY BOOST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
CONVERGENCE AREA. HUSTON
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
621 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME DESPITE
THE OUTLIER GFS FORECAST OF PRECIP. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR APPARENT ON
THE 00Z OUN AND DDC SOUNDINGS IS INDICATIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS. IN
ADDITION...THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...ARE
TOO HIGH WITH THEIR SURFACE DEW POINT INITIALIZATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO HRRR AND HOPWRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS SUGGEST
ANY PRECIP THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE SPRINKLES...IF INDEED
ANYTHING WERE TO EVEN DEVELOP IN THE CWA AT ALL.
CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BALANCE LOSS OF FULL
SUNSHINE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY SUCH THAT TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. DOWNSTREAM TEMPS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA COULD EXCEED 60 DEGREES. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL MODERATE OVER THIS MORNING`S READINGS
WITH MOSTLY 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA.
WOLF
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON NICE WARM-UP THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR THE STORM
SYSTEM ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE TOO HIGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THIS CURRENT
REGIME COMPARED TO REALITY AND HAVE LOWERED VALUES SOMEWHAT
THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST WITH THE
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE TRACKING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. FOR NOW THIS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AS OTHER MODELS AGREE
ON KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS AS NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S.
MID TO LATE WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL PULL MILD TO
WARM AIR INTO THE MIDWEST ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND COMBINED
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY VEGETATION...THERE WILL BE AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR GRASS FIRES. WILL BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HWO PRODUCT EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
BY THURSDAY EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT AND INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...AND RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THAT TIME. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS IS PUSHING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BUT NO IMPACT TO AIRPORT OPS IS EXPECTED.
SOUTH WINDS WILL EQUAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 10 KTS TODAY...THEN
DROP BELOW THAT THRESHOLD AND BACK SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WOLF
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...WOLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE 20S...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON MONDAY
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 710 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO MENTION FLURRIES ACRS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MTNS THRU 15Z TODAY. ALSO...HAVE
INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS...BASED ON LATEST IR SATL
PICS. THESE LLVL CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 1
TO 3 HRS...WITH THE LAST TO CLR EXTREME NORTHEAST VT. STILL
ANTICIPATING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING
BEHIND S/W ENERGY AND BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. IR SATL CONTS
TO SHOW A SLOW EROSION OF LLVL CLOUDS ACRS OUR CWA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE RAP SOUNDINGS HANDLING THIS RH THE BEST. THIS
SUPPORTS CLOUDS ACRS NORTHERN VT AND THE NEK THRU 15Z
TODAY...BEFORE CLRING FINALLY DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT MIXING TO ABOUT 875MB TODAY AND INDICATE TEMPS BTWN 0 AND
-1C AT THIS LEVEL...ADDING 9 TO 10C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
M/U 40S. HAVE NOTED MAVBTV ONLY 43 FOR TODAY...WL TREND 4 TO 5
DEGREES HIGHER...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH INFLUENCE OF FROZEN LAKE
WATERS ON WESTERLY FLW. FEEL GUIDANCE MAY THINK SNOW PACK IS STILL
ACRS THE CPV...BUT RECENT WARM TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY ERODE SNOW
COVERAGE IN THE IMMEDIATE CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT WL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THRU
MONDAY. HAVE NOTED IN THE 00Z GFS WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT AND SOME
MID LVL RH MOVING ACRS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL COOL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS COLDER VALLEYS TO M/U 20S CPV/SLV. WARMING 925MB
TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIDSLOPE THERMAL BELT WL BE
DEVELOPING WITH A RIBBON OF TEMPS IN THE U20S TO MID 30S POSSIBLE
BTWN 1500 AND 3000 FT TONIGHT. FCST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WL BE
TEMPS...WITH LLVL WAA CONTINUING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 0 AND 2C. THINKING WARMEST TEMPS WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES/CPV (AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN) AND PARTS OF THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS. IF WE WERE TO MIX TO 85H COMPLETELY HIGHS COULD APPROACH
60F IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT THINKING WITH HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTN TEMPS WL FALL JUST SHORT IN OUR WARMER
VALLEYS...MAINLY M/U 50S TO U40S/L50S ELSEWHERE.
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SHOW 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS QUICKLY SPREADING FROM
SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 21Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT AND LLVL WAA. IN ADDITION PWS SURGE BTWN 0.50
AND 0.75 AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING TO OUR WEST AND LATEST 00Z
NAM/GFS SHOWING PROGGED SE DOWNSLOPING 85H WINDS BTWN 65 AND 75
KNOTS AROUND 06Z TUES. STRONGEST WINDS ARE CLOSELY TIED WITH
HEAVIEST PRECIP...WHICH WL LIMIT MIXING BUT STILL COULD SEE GUSTS
TO 40 MPH OR SO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WL RESULT IN THE TYPICAL TRRN IMPACTED QPF FIELDS WITH HIGHEST
VALUES AROUND 0.50 ACRS THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS.
ELSEWHERE...QPF ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV WL BE SIMILAR TO OUR
LAST EVENT...BTWN 0.10 AND 0.20"...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACRS
THE SLV. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TWO HEAVIEST QPF
FIELDS SPLITTING OUR CWA...EITHER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE
MID/UPPER LVL DYNAMICS AND BETTER 25H JET OR TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...WHERE PWS ARE HIGHER AND NOSE OF LLVL JET ENHANCES THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF
SCENARIO...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO ISSUES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE RISES FROM SNOW MELT ON MONDAY
AND EXPECTED QPF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
ICE JAM OR TWO ACRS OUR NORTHERN RIVERS...OTHERWISE NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. THE DURATION OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE BTWN 3 AND
6 HRS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT QUICKLY
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND PRECIP BECMS SCATTERED. SOME WET SNOW OR
SLEET WL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 2500 FT...BUT ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED...GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES. TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD WARM
BACK INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRNT. EXPECTING ANOTHER BRIEF
ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY BTWN 15Z AND 21Z
TUESDAY...BUT OVERALL RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND BEST
DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WL CONT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW
MELT...EVEN ACRS THE MID/UPPER ELEVATIONS...SO RIVERS WL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT SUNDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS
AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER UPSLOPE FAVORED NORTHERN
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. IT WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH AND GUSTY.
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S. RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH BRISK RETURN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA. MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 25 TO 35 DEGREES...BUT
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER BY 12Z. EXCEPTION
WILL BE SLK WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TILL ABOUT 10Z. DURING
SUNDAY...LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME SKC BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WNW 8-15 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN WEST 8-15 KTS SUNDAY. GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS SUNDAY
EVENING WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY INTO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2014
.UPDATE...
The forecast was updated to increase POPs slightly across central
and western counties this afternoon and to lower max temps a few
degrees.
Spotty light rain showers continue across mainly the Big Country
late this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms were
also entering extreme western portions of the Big Country and
Concho Valley. Latest HRRR/3km WRF data shows this area of
precipitation moving east across the area this afternoon. Mid
level lapse rates (700-500mb) will increase to 7 to 8 DEG C/KM
this afternoon, so will continue to keep a mention of thunderstorms
in the forecast. Severe weather is not anticipated but a few of
the stronger cells will be capable of producing small hail and
gusty winds. Abundant cloud cover and precip will hold temperatures
down across much of the area this afternoon with highs mainly in
the upper 50s and lower 60s. Some drier air will enter southwest
counties later this afternoon with some partial clearing expected.
This should allow temperatures to reach the upper 60s and lower
70s across this area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Widespread stratus will continue across West Central Texas through
much of the next 24 hours. As a result, MVFR/IFR CIGS are expected
at the terminals. There may be some improvement this afternoon at
the KSOA and KSJT terminals due to low level westerly flow bringing
low level dry air, and have gone with VFR conditions. Low clouds
will return to much of the area late tonight. An upper level trough
will bring increasing lift, resulting in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Have continued VCSH at the KABI and KBBD
terminals for today.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Latest satellite imagery showing low clouds have spread north
across all of West Central Texas. Aloft, upper level trough was
located over the southwest U.S., with trough axis along the
Arizona/New Mexico border. Ahead of the trough, weak large-scale
ascent was over Texas as evident by a few light showers over the
eastern half of our area.
For today, as the upper level system moves east into the Southern
Plains, mid and upper level forcing will increase across West
Central Texas. Showers will become more widespread especially
across the eastern half of the area. The HRRR convective allowing
model indicates activity picking up over the Heartland and
Northwest Hill Country during the morning hours(after 10Z). Have
the highest POPS (likely to high end chance) across the eastern
1/3 of the area, decreasing to slight chance southwest of a
Sterling City to San Angelo to Junction line as forcing will be
much weaker. The mid level lapse rates will increase to 7 to 8 DEG
C/KM later today so isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A
couple of storms will have the potential to produce small hail,
gusty winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Rainfall
amounts will average 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch, with the higher
amounts across eastern 1/3 of the area. A few areas like the
Northern Edwards Plateau will not even receive a tenth of an inch.
Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s across the western Concho
Valley and along the I-10 corridor.
For tonight, the best large-scale ascent will be located east of
West Central Texas. Will keep the slight chance POPS going across
mainly the Big Country, otherwise going with a dry forecast. Lows
will be in the 40s.
LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
On Monday, we may have some lingering showers around the area as
a shortwave currently moving southeast into the Pacific Northwest
out of southwestern Canada will move through the main upper level
trough before it moves east of the area. Have kept the lower end
slight chance PoPs going for the area. If any precipitation
occurs, the main mode would likely be showers again, but an
isolated thunderstorm or two would still be possible as cold
temperatures associated with the upper level low will help
increase lapse rates aloft. In addition, northerly flow at the
surface will bring in drier air resulting in an inverted V
soundings for southern areas, which could lead to gusty winds at
the surface underneath any showers, virga, or thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with this activity.
Tuesday through the middle of the week, we can expect dry
weather, and warming temperatures. Dry northwest flow aloft
Tuesday into Wednesday will be replaced by low amplitude ridging,
or zonal flow Thursday and Friday. Gulf moisture will move back
into the area by the second half of the week as well with
persistent southerly low level flow. After Friday, models disagree
on timing and strength of another possible trough moving through
the area, so have made very minimal changes to the forecast beyond
Day 4.
FIRE WEATHER...
With cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation through
Monday for most of the area, fire weather conditions will not be
a concern for most of the area.
However, by Tuesday, rain chances move out, and temperatures
begin to warm back up. Elevated to near critical conditions will
be possible Tuesday through the end of next week, and especially
on Wednesday and Thursday for areas west of an Abilene to Sonora
line, as southerly winds pick up to 15 to 20 mph, and relative
humidity values fall to 15 to 20 percent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 60 46 70 41 73 / 50 20 20 5 0
San Angelo 67 46 72 41 77 / 30 10 20 0 0
Junction 68 46 73 39 78 / 20 10 20 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
659 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS MUCAPE ABOUT DOUBLE WHAT WAS FORECAST...
NEAR 700 J/KG. LATEST RAP NOW INDICATING AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. EARLY RADAR TRENDS
CONFIRM AMPLE INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE WITH ALREADY ONE SEVERE
STORM IN BOSQUE COUNTY THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
SHOW THE NEW WATCH AND MENTION A THREAT FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS...PERHAPS UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN OTHER PRODUCTS. AGAIN
STRONGEST STORMS AND BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
MORNING...AND NO CHANGE WITH THAT THINKING. TR.92
&&
.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL
PREVAIL VCTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL HANDLE EACH BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A TEMPO TO TRY TO PIN DOWN THE BEST TIMING OF
ACTIVITY. LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
JUST MENTION -RA/SHRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WACO WILL LIKELY
RECEIVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE MAIN FORCING ALOFT REACHES
THE REGION. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH IFR
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AFTER 14-15Z.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW ENCROACHING UPON THE REGION AND
AREA VWPS SHOW 850MB WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASED TO
30KT DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION AS RICH GULF MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTHWARD AND OVER A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH
TEXAS TODAY AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES THE CATALYST FOR
PARCELS TO ACHIEVE THEIR LFC. THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
COINCIDENT WITH STEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL YIELD 200-600 J/KG OF CAPE WITH PARCELS LIFTED NEAR
850MB. THE HIGHEST MUCAPE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE GREATEST TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE INSTABILITY GETS EXHAUSTED...WITH PRIMARILY SHOWERS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A DRY SLOT WILL
ROTATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP END MOST OF THE
CONVECTION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...WRAP-AROUND RAIN MAY WORK BACK INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AS A TROWAL DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW THAT TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER. ALL RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN
END BY MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER THE
AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S...WITH TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 40S DURING PERIODS OF RAIN THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TOMORROW PUTTING
NORTH TEXAS IN A REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE. THIS
DOWNGLIDE SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUD COVER...WITH BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST EXPECTED BY NOON. USUALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THESE
TROUGHS WE ARE IN REGION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN DROPPING A STRONG POCKET OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY DOWN
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE EVENING HOURS.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL
OCCUR...ALL SIGNS THAT FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IS
FORECAST. 500MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR -25C...WHICH IS
EXTRAORDINARILY COLD FOR APRIL. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S WILL YIELD 500-1000J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HI-RES WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS
AS A RESULT. WHILE CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOK A LITTLE TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODES AT THIS TIME...THE EXTREMELY
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH FREEZING LEVELS DROPPING TO 8000FT WOULD
SUPPORT A SMALL HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER IF MORE SUNSHINE DID OCCUR
MONDAY...THE STRONGER HEATING WOULD INCREASE THE SUPERCELL/HAIL
THREAT. FURTHERMORE BECAUSE WE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH MONDAY...ANY SUPERCELL STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY BE LEFT
MOVING OR ANTI-CYCLONIC.
RAPID CLEARING WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THIS SHOULD MIX STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE LIMITED BY COOLISH TEMPS
WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR 70 DEGREES...AND WHAT SHOULD BE MOIST FUELS
FROM THE FORECASTED RAINFALL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DIE OFF AND THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES
OVER NORTH TEXAS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S EAST TO UPPER
40S WEST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS SUNNY AND VERY NICE WITH HIGHS WARMING
TO NEAR 80. SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN
THURSDAY AS WELL...BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION.
EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST/STRONGEST AND BRINGS
IT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS IT AND BRINGS
IT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE TEMPERED BY A STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION...AND
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT
SITS OVER THE GULF MID-LATE WEEK. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
THAN THE GFS...AND BRING LOW POPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE A STRONG FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND BEHIND IT.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 54 48 65 44 71 / 100 40 30 20 0
WACO, TX 57 48 67 46 72 / 90 20 30 20 0
PARIS, TX 54 47 62 45 66 / 100 60 30 20 0
DENTON, TX 54 46 64 43 70 / 100 40 30 20 0
MCKINNEY, TX 54 47 64 44 68 / 100 40 30 20 0
DALLAS, TX 54 48 65 45 71 / 100 40 30 20 0
TERRELL, TX 54 48 64 44 69 / 100 30 30 20 0
CORSICANA, TX 56 49 65 45 69 / 100 20 20 20 0
TEMPLE, TX 59 47 68 45 73 / 80 20 20 20 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 54 45 67 42 73 / 90 30 30 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
612 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Widespread stratus will continue across West Central Texas through
much of the next 24 hours. As a result, MVFR/IFR CIGS are expected
at the terminals. There may be some improvement this afternoon at
the KSOA and KSJT terminals due to low level westerly flow bringing
low level dry air, and have gone with VFR conditions. Low clouds
will return to much of the area late tonight. An upper level trough
will bring increasing lift, resulting in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Have continued VCSH at the KABI and KBBD
terminals for today.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Latest satellite imagery showing low clouds have spread north
across all of West Central Texas. Aloft, upper level trough was
located over the southwest U.S., with trough axis along the
Arizona/New Mexico border. Ahead of the trough, weak large-scale
ascent was over Texas as evident by a few light showers over the
eastern half of our area.
For today, as the upper level system moves east into the Southern
Plains, mid and upper level forcing will increase across West
Central Texas. Showers will become more widespread especially
across the eastern half of the area. The HRRR convective allowing
model indicates activity picking up over the Heartland and
Northwest Hill Country during the morning hours(after 10Z). Have
the highest POPS (likely to high end chance) across the eastern
1/3 of the area, decreasing to slight chance southwest of a
Sterling City to San Angelo to Junction line as forcing will be
much weaker. The mid level lapse rates will increase to 7 to 8 DEG
C/KM later today so isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A
couple of storms will have the potential to produce small hail,
gusty winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Rainfall
amounts will average 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch, with the higher
amounts across eastern 1/3 of the area. A few areas like the
Northern Edwards Plateau will not even receive a tenth of an inch.
Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s across the western Concho
Valley and along the I-10 corridor.
For tonight, the best large-scale ascent will be located east of
West Central Texas. Will keep the slight chance POPS going across
mainly the Big Country, otherwise going with a dry forecast. Lows
will be in the 40s.
LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
On Monday, we may have some lingering showers around the area as
a shortwave currently moving southeast into the Pacific Northwest
out of southwestern Canada will move through the main upper level
trough before it moves east of the area. Have kept the lower end
slight chance PoPs going for the area. If any precipitation
occurs, the main mode would likely be showers again, but an
isolated thunderstorm or two would still be possible as cold
temperatures associated with the upper level low will help
increase lapse rates aloft. In addition, northerly flow at the
surface will bring in drier air resulting in an inverted V
soundings for southern areas, which could lead to gusty winds at
the surface underneath any showers, virga, or thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with this activity.
Tuesday through the middle of the week, we can expect dry
weather, and warming temperatures. Dry northwest flow aloft
Tuesday into Wednesday will be replaced by low amplitude ridging,
or zonal flow Thursday and Friday. Gulf moisture will move back
into the area by the second half of the week as well with
persistent southerly low level flow. After Friday, models disagree
on timing and strength of another possible trough moving through
the area, so have made very minimal changes to the forecast beyond
Day 4.
FIRE WEATHER...
With cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation through
Monday for most of the area, fire weather conditions will not be
a concern for most of the area.
However, by Tuesday, rain chances move out, and temperatures
begin to warm back up. Elevated to near critical conditions will
be possible Tuesday through the end of next week, and especially
on Wednesday and Thursday for areas west of an Abilene to Sonora
line, as southerly winds pick up to 15 to 20 mph, and relative
humidity values fall to 15 to 20 percent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 60 46 70 41 73 / 40 20 20 5 0
San Angelo 69 46 72 41 77 / 20 10 20 0 0
Junction 71 46 73 39 78 / 20 10 20 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1011 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA BUT SO FAR ONLY
HITTING THE GROUND IN CENTRAL IOWA. MESO MODELS KEEP MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIP TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A FEW SHOWERS CLIPPING OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. MAY ADD LOW POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE IS STILL A LOT
OF DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS TO OVERCOME IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS.
BETTER INSTABILITY IS NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AND THE RAP INDICATES
AROUND 50 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE FAR NW CWA.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN THE WEST...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM FOND DU LAC TO JANESVILLE. A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON LATEST NAM
SOUNDINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG 250 MB JET MAX OF 120 KNOTS MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THIS BRINGS MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE
ILLINOIS BORDER REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SATURATION DOES OCCUR AT 700 MB...BUT 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS
RATHER WEAK AND THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW 800 MB ARE DRY. THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH ONLY 4 JOULES/KG. THEREFORE THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCAS/VIRGA MAINLY WEST OF MADISON BUT ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS QUESTIONABLE.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE 925/850 AND 700 MB LEVELS
TODAY.
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY.
WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM PUSHING
INLAND LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.
NAM/ECMWF KEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
SHIELD SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS TRY TO CLIP
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAINLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THEY ARE A BIT SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE NAM/ECMWF LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS. PREFER THE
MORE CONSISTENT NAM/ECMWF TRACKS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS STILL TRY TO BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
MONDAY WITH WEAK TO MODEST LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE/DEFORMATION ZONE. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH SOMEWHAT STEEP
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SEEN IN FAR
WESTERN AREAS. LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST GOING...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEPT LOWER END POPS GOING FOR NOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...UNTIL MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE QUESTIONABLE...ESPECIALLY
ON NAM...WITH ANY MOIST AREAS SHALLOW AND NOT VERY PERSISTENT.
COULD END UP BEING SPRINKLES OR VIRGA DURING THIS PERIOD IF BETTER
MOISTURE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE.
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE...WITH AROUND 50
WELL INLAND. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S
INLAND...WITH A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
LAKE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE
WARMER NEAR THE LAKE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY GIVEN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW.
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRINGING ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN.
NEXT ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN TRIES TO SET UP FOR
SATURDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING VARYING LOCATIONS OF LOW PRESSURE
AND OTHER FEATURES. FOR NOW...USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT
SOUTH FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM PUSHING INLAND LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATER TODAY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SM/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
950 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH
MOVING EAST THROUGH MN. RAP MODEL BRINGS IN A 0-3KM MUCAPE POOL OF
500-1000 J/KG BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RAP DEW POINTS
SEEM A BIT OVERDONE IN THE M-U40S...BUT MODIFIED CAPE WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S WOULD STILL YIELD 300-800J/KG. THIS IS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING. OTHERWISE...MORE SPRING-LIKE
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TODAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 50S
NORTH OF I-94...TO A FEW LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-90.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-
SECTION...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE SYSTEM/S DEFORMATION REGION OF PCPN NORTH-WEST OF THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SUBTLE FEATURES THAT COULD STILL RESULT IN
SOME PCPN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING...WITH SOME MINOR RIPPLES
MOVING DOWN THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAKES TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES PROBLEMATIC...AND WILL LIKELY USE BROAD
STROKES WITH THE CHANCES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DUE HINT THAT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WILL WORK SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...DROPPING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER THAT NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE...COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKER SIGNALS...COULD
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL SLATED TO BE MORE ZONAL TO RIDGING FOR MUCH
OF THE NEW WEEK...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A RELATIVELY MILD AIR
MASS. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES VIA THE ECMWF STILL HOVER AROUND +1. IT
WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEKS.
THAT SAID...ITS NOT GOING TO BE PCPN FREE.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA MID WEEK...STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION AS IT PASSES WED
NIGHT/THU. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WED NIGHT...AND THE GFS/EC SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD DRIVE ACROSS IT. SOME LOW/MID LEVEL QG
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. SATURATION COULD BE AN ISSUE AS
TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY TRENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION...WHERE SATURATION IS DEEPER.
THE WEEKEND IS SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TAKES A NORTHEAST TRACK TOWARD THE REGION. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND THE PREV ECMWF RUN...WITH THE EC A BIT FASTER. HOWEVER...THE
06.00Z EC IS MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS THINKING. WITH THE GULF OPEN
AND A STRONG FEED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...A BROAD AREA OF PCPN LOOKS LIKELY...WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
RAIN FALLING ON THE REGION. IF REALIZED...WOULD LIKELY SEE RISES ON
AREA RIVERS/STREAMS. GOING TO SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR
NOW. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8K FEET
THROUGH 07.08Z...AND THEN CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO 5K FEET. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM 06.22Z THROUGH 07.12Z.
THE LAMP DATA SUGGESTS THAT FG WILL DEVELOP AT KRST AFTER 07.08Z.
HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE AND WINDS REMAINING ABOVE 5
KNOTS...JUST DO NOT SEE THIS OCCURRING...SO DID NOT INCLUDE IT INT
THE TAF.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1134 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
ADJUSTED MOST POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...TO BETTER MATCH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
OUR CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH NM...AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY. SOME WEAK ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN RANGES...WHILE SCT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN PLAINS. SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW EXTENSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THIS
MORNING OVER OUR SERN CORNER...THE NAM HOLDS ON TO EXTENSIVE PRECIP
WHILE THE HRRR DRIES THINGS OUT PRETTY QUICKLY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO
BE A BIT TOO DRY WHILE THE NAM AND WRF MAY BE OVERDONE. WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS OVER PROWERS...BACA...AND ERN LAS ANIMAS THIS
MORNING...BUT AMTS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE.
SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY 6000-6500 FEET AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
7K FOOT RANGE TODAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AND H7 TEMPS
WILL FALL FROM AROUND MINUS 4 TO MINUS 8 OR SO BY MONDAY MORNING.
BUT...PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO LOW ELEVATION SNOW
POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT. OVER THE MTS...PERSISTENT SHSN
CONTINUE TODAY...AND WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY PEAKS. AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE
MORNING ZONE PACKAGE. ANOTHER TWO TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER PEAKS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME OVERNIGHT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME COLD
MORNING LOWS LATER TONIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
ON MONDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WL BE FOUND OVR THE AREA. A PASSING
DISTURBANCE AND SOME LINGERING MSTR WL MEAN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MON WL LIKELY BE
A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. UPR RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED OVR THE AREA
FOR TUE AND WED...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS BOTH DAYS. THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED OVR THE
AREA ON THU AS AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BACKS INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS ON
THU...BRINGING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AN
INCREASE IN MSTR OVR THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVR THE MTNS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LOWER EAST
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTNS WHERE THE UPSLOPE WL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS A WEAK
UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE ROCKIES. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
UPR TROF...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM
BRINGING PCPN AND COOLER TEMPS TO MOST OF THE AREA THRU THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
AFTER A SHORT LULL THIS MORNING...WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WIND DOWN
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. FZG LEVELS WILL GENERALLY 7500-8000 FEET
TODAY...AND THE MTS WILL BECOME OBSCURED WITH SCT-NMRS SHOWERS.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN THE TAFS. ON
MON...STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA IN THE
MORNING BEFORE PRECIP SHIFTS EAST INTO KS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1224 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME DESPITE
THE OUTLIER GFS FORECAST OF PRECIP. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR APPARENT ON
THE 00Z OUN AND DDC SOUNDINGS IS INDICATIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS. IN
ADDITION...THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...ARE
TOO HIGH WITH THEIR SURFACE DEW POINT INITIALIZATIONS IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO HRRR AND HOPWRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS SUGGEST
ANY PRECIP THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE SPRINKLES...IF INDEED
ANYTHING WERE TO EVEN DEVELOP IN THE CWA AT ALL.
CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BALANCE LOSS OF FULL
SUNSHINE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY SUCH THAT TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. DOWNSTREAM TEMPS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA COULD EXCEED 60 DEGREES. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL MODERATE OVER THIS MORNING`S READINGS
WITH MOSTLY 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA.
WOLF
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON NICE WARM-UP THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR THE STORM
SYSTEM ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE TOO HIGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THIS CURRENT
REGIME COMPARED TO REALITY AND HAVE LOWERED VALUES SOMEWHAT
THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST WITH THE
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE TRACKING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. FOR NOW THIS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AS OTHER MODELS AGREE
ON KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS AS NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S.
MID TO LATE WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL PULL MILD TO
WARM AIR INTO THE MIDWEST ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND COMBINED
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY VEGETATION...THERE WILL BE AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR GRASS FIRES. WILL BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HWO PRODUCT EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
BY THURSDAY EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT AND INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WITH MOST
OF THE AREA RESIDING IN LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE AND SUBSIDENCE IN
BETWEEN PCPN AREAS TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...AND
TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH STORM SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE TX GULF COAST
TO THE OHIO VLY. S/SE WINDS WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 10 KTS
THIS AFTN THEN DROP BLO 10KTS TNGT INTO MONDAY AM WHILE BACKING TO
THE N/NE. MCCLURE
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
206 PM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
MODELS PLAYING CATCHUP THIS MORNING. SYSTEM THAT WAS EXPECTED TO
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED BY MYSELF AND MODEL OUTPUT. MAIN CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL IS SOUTH OF MY AREA WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANCE IN MY
FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION THERE IS A LOT LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN THE MODELS THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURES TO GET WARMER THAN EXPECTED. RAP WAS DOING A DECENT
JOB WITH THIS AND USED FOR THE UPDATE. ALSO DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
SKY COVER PER LATEST SATELLITE WITH MODEL OUTPUT HAVING TOO MUCH.
SATELLITE AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM 12Z
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE IN THIS AIR MASS. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS
SHOWING NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES THROUGH MID LEVELS INTO THIS
EVENING IN ADDITION TO KEEPING AROUND SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE.
ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH IS PUSHING THE AREA AND IS ABOUT HALF WAY
THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS INDICATING
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL END UP BEING DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS BY LATE THIS MORNING. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS ALSO
GENERATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SO ADJUSTED POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACCOUNTING FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL TONIGHT...COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
WYOMING AND UTAH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
FOR TODAY...MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK ELEVATED FRONTAL BAND THAT STRETCHES FROM
NEAR PUEBLO...COLORADO TO HAYS...KANSAS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE
DUE TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SO LOWERED
POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...
EXPECTING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND HEAD EAST. OVERALL...CAPE...SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST. CONSIDERED REMOVING THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN AS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TODAY...THINK THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO WIDESPREAD STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE COME DOWN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS AS THE WIND FIELD
ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE NUDGED WINDS DOWN A
COUPLE KNOTS BUT AM STILL FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST RUN AND ONE MAY NOT BE
NEEDED AT ALL BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. SO FAR...THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD MEAN AN INCREASED THREAT OF BLOWING DUST.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED...BLOWING DUST WOULD NOT BE A
MAJOR THREAT FOR OUR REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER BACK TO THE TRI-STATE AREA.
WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN WITH WARMER 850 MB TEMPS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO
THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WARMER
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE ANY THREAT
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE WARM AND
DRY DURING THAT PERIOD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL APPROACH CRITICAL
VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. RIDGE GETS FLATTENED WEDNESDAY NIGHT BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TIMEFRAME. DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST IN THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE BUT
WILL LIKELY BE FADING BY THE TIME IT REACHES YUMA COUNTY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED
IN THE FOUR CORNERS AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SATURDAY
MAY PROVIDE THE FIRST REAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...COOLING ALOFT AND WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH HIGHEST VALUES FROM
HILL CITY TO GOVE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GFS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP
TO 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY FORECAST AT
AROUND 25KT WHICH WOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. STILL A WEEK
AWAY BUT MID APRIL TYPICALLY SEES SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
INCREASING. SUNDAY PRESENTS YET ANOTHER CONCERN...WITH THE ECMWF
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS SHOWING MUCH COLDER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE AND PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW.
ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND CONDITIONS WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...BUT THEN AGAIN MID APRIL SNOW STORMS ARE
NOT UNHEARD OF IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DID CHOOSE TO PUT
-TSRA AT BOTH SITES BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE KMCK WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AND THAT IS WHY I PUT IN A MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.
LATER ON TONIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS FROM NEAR 12Z
TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL LAST BEYOND THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1137 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
MODELS PLAYING CATCHUP THIS MORNING. SYSTEM THAT WAS EXPECTED TO
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED BY MYSELF AND MODEL OUTPUT. MAIN CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL IS SOUTH OF MY AREA WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANCE IN MY
FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION THERE IS A LOT LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN THE MODELS THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURES TO GET WARMER THAN EXPECTED. RAP WAS DOING A DECENT
JOB WITH THIS AND USED FOR THE UPDATE. ALSO DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
SKY COVER PER LATEST SATELLITE WITH MODEL OUTPUT HAVING TOO MUCH.
SATELLITE AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM 12Z
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE IN THIS AIR MASS. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS
SHOWING NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES THROUGH MID LEVELS INTO THIS
EVENING IN ADDITION TO KEEPING AROUND SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE.
ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH IS PUSHING THE AREA AND IS ABOUT HALF WAY
THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS INDICATING
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL END UP BEING DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS BY LATE THIS MORNING. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS ALSO
GENERATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SO ADJUSTED POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACCOUNTING FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL TONIGHT...COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
WYOMING AND UTAH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
FOR TODAY...MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK ELEVATED FRONTAL BAND THAT STRETCHES FROM
NEAR PUEBLO...COLORADO TO HAYS...KANSAS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE
DUE TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SO LOWERED
POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...
EXPECTING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND HEAD EAST. OVERALL...CAPE...SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST. CONSIDERED REMOVING THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN AS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TODAY...THINK THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO WIDESPREAD STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE COME DOWN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS AS THE WIND FIELD
ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE NUDGED WINDS DOWN A
COUPLE KNOTS BUT AM STILL FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST RUN AND ONE MAY NOT BE
NEEDED AT ALL BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. SO FAR...THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD MEAN AN INCREASED THREAT OF BLOWING DUST.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED...BLOWING DUST WOULD NOT BE A
MAJOR THREAT FOR OUR REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER BACK TO THE TRI-STATE AREA.
WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN WITH WARMER 850 MB TEMPS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO
THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WARMER
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE ANY THREAT
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DOMINANCE OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE TRI STATE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE AT A
CRITICAL LEVEL...HOWEVER CALM WIND SPEEDS UNDER A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY THWART ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT VERY DRY MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PROFILE THAT IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY
PRECIP. MOST MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY.
MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY...BRINGING POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY AND LIFT TO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY...BUT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL FILL INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SNOWFLAKES TO SOME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PER
COLLABORATION HOWEVER...LEFT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. EVEN IF
SOME SNOW DID OCCUR...WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT ALLOW ANY
ACCUMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DID CHOOSE TO PUT
-TSRA AT BOTH SITES BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE KMCK WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AND THAT IS WHY I PUT IN A MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION.
LATER ON TONIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS FROM NEAR 12Z
TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL LAST BEYOND THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1033 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
MODELS PLAYING CATCHUP THIS MORNING. SYSTEM THAT WAS EXPECTED TO
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED BY MYSELF AND MODEL OUTPUT. MAIN CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL IS SOUTH OF MY AREA WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANCE IN MY
FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION THERE IS A LOT LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN THE MODELS THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURES TO GET WARMER THAN EXPECTED. RAP WAS DOING A DECENT
JOB WITH THIS AND USED FOR THE UPDATE. ALSO DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
SKY COVER PER LATEST SATELLITE WITH MODEL OUTPUT HAVING TOO MUCH.
SATELLITE AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM 12Z
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE IN THIS AIR MASS. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS
SHOWING NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES THROUGH MID LEVELS INTO THIS
EVENING IN ADDITION TO KEEPING AROUND SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE.
ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH IS PUSHING THE AREA AND IS ABOUT HALF WAY
THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS INDICATING
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL END UP BEING DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS BY LATE THIS MORNING. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS ALSO
GENERATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SO ADJUSTED POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACCOUNTING FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL TONIGHT...COOLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
WYOMING AND UTAH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
FOR TODAY...MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK ELEVATED FRONTAL BAND THAT STRETCHES FROM
NEAR PUEBLO...COLORADO TO HAYS...KANSAS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE
DUE TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SO LOWERED
POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...
EXPECTING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND HEAD EAST. OVERALL...CAPE...SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST. CONSIDERED REMOVING THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN AS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TODAY...THINK THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO WIDESPREAD STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE COME DOWN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS AS THE WIND FIELD
ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE NUDGED WINDS DOWN A
COUPLE KNOTS BUT AM STILL FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST RUN AND ONE MAY NOT BE
NEEDED AT ALL BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. SO FAR...THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD MEAN AN INCREASED THREAT OF BLOWING DUST.
HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED...BLOWING DUST WOULD NOT BE A
MAJOR THREAT FOR OUR REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER BACK TO THE TRI-STATE AREA.
WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN WITH WARMER 850 MB TEMPS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO
THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WARMER
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE ANY THREAT
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DOMINANCE OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE TRI STATE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE AT A
CRITICAL LEVEL...HOWEVER CALM WIND SPEEDS UNDER A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY THWART ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT VERY DRY MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PROFILE THAT IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY
PRECIP. MOST MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY.
MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY...BRINGING POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY AND LIFT TO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY...BUT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL FILL INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SNOWFLAKES TO SOME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PER
COLLABORATION HOWEVER...LEFT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. EVEN IF
SOME SNOW DID OCCUR...WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT ALLOW ANY
ACCUMULATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXACT
TIMING/PLACEMENT WAS UNKNOWN. MENTIONED VCTS FOR KMCK AS BOTH GFS
AND NAM CROSS-SECTIONS DEPICT STRONGER LIFT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIP FORECAST AS
WELL AS CIG HEIGHTS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR MAJORITY OF TAF
PERIOD BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER A SHOWER
OR STRATUS AS WAS OBSERVED AT KMCK EARLIER. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO NORTH WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
224 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 63 FOR OUR LOUISIANA
PARISHES AND EXTEND OVER OUR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES THROUGH 6
PM. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET GOING ACRS OUR AREA SO FAR
TODAY. HOWEVER...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH. LATEST HRRR AND RUC13 SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA...AND THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RADAR TRENDS SO OPTED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT
SVR WATCH IN TIME. OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS/WX AS
WELL AS TEMPS AS WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SITS ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
A KBPT-KARA LINE AND SHOULD BE SLIDING NORTH OF KLCH WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF IFR/LIFR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT IS NOW
BEGINNING TO WORK INLAND ALONG THE COAST. THEN IT BECOMES SOMEWHAT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES. AT THIS TIME THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN 23Z AND 06Z THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE TRIED TO
NARROW DOWN THE TIMING AS BEST WE CAN USING THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND THE NMC HIRES-ARW.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUST FOR A TIME AT LFT AND ARA AS THE WARM
SECTOR SURGE DEVELOPS IN A FEW HOURS.
BRAZZELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
UPDATE...
STILL ANTICIPATE A BUSY DAY TODAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF ENTERS
THE SRN PLAINS...INDUCING A SFC LOW NR THE TX COAST ON A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY SITS ALONG THE LA/TX COASTLINE.
SVR WATCH 63 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-10...ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY ACRS NRN LA INTO CNTL TX WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED POPS FOR TODAY...BROKEN DOWN INTO
SHORTER TIME INCREMENTS TO INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. ALSO ADDED FOG MAINLY TO SRN ZONES...WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES AND
BAYS FOR THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTN. DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF...WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH ALL
TYPES OF SEVERE MODES POSSIBLE (TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS). ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO MORE THAN 1.7 INCHES...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS. THUS...A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL TRANSITION EAST OVERNIGHT TOWARD OUR S CNTL LA
PARISHES...ENDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. HAVE INCLUDED LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
AND ADVANCING NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT
EASTERLY BUT RAPIDLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS AT
2K FT. OTHERWISE...IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THIS AS A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE TROF ALOFT ADVANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS SENDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ELEVATED BUT
STILL POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DOCKET THIS MORNING...BECOMING SURFACE BASED WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AREA WARM
SECTORS WITH THE NORTHWARD PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 63 IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES AND
PARISHES ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. THE
WATCH WILL GO UNTIL 2 PM TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
RAINS/SHOWERS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INCLUDING THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST INTO LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI... AND ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST WITH A TRAILING WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS COMING FROM A
TROF BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
TODAY WE ARE LOOKING AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE
THREAT THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE FROM WINDS AND HAIL ALTHOUGH A TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
ALSO THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION... RAINS WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED TODAY. THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ENDING AROUND
SUNRISE.
WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THIS MESS OFF TO
THE EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. RAINS
FINALLY ENDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN
COOL DRY WEATHER BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE DOWNSIDE IS RAINS MOVE BACK INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND. 19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 73 60 72 53 / 80 80 20 10
KBPT 74 60 73 56 / 80 70 20 10
KAEX 70 59 69 50 / 90 90 20 20
KLFT 76 66 73 55 / 70 90 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-
BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EAST CAMERON-EVANGELINE-IBERIA-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-ST.
LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON-WEST
CAMERON.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR HARDIN-JEFFERSON-NORTHERN
JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN
NEWTON-TYLER.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1240 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF IFR/LIFR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT IS NOW
BEGINNING TO WORK INLAND ALONG THE COAST. THEN IT BECOMES SOMEWHAT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES. AT THIS TIME THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING SEEMS TO BE
BETWEEN 23Z AND 06Z THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE TRIED TO
NARROW DOWN THE TIMING AS BEST WE CAN USING THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND THE NMC HIRES-ARW.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUST FOR A TIME AT LFT AND ARA AS THE WARM
SECTOR SURGE DEVELOPS IN A FEW HOURS.
BRAZZELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
UPDATE...
STILL ANTICIPATE A BUSY DAY TODAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF ENTERS
THE SRN PLAINS...INDUCING A SFC LOW NR THE TX COAST ON A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY SITS ALONG THE LA/TX COASTLINE.
SVR WATCH 63 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-10...ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY ACRS NRN LA INTO CNTL TX WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED POPS FOR TODAY...BROKEN DOWN INTO
SHORTER TIME INCREMENTS TO INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. ALSO ADDED FOG MAINLY TO SRN ZONES...WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES AND
BAYS FOR THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTN. DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF...WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH ALL
TYPES OF SEVERE MODES POSSIBLE (TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS). ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES CLIMBING TO MORE THAN 1.7 INCHES...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS. THUS...A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL TRANSITION EAST OVERNIGHT TOWARD OUR S CNTL LA
PARISHES...ENDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. HAVE INCLUDED LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
AND ADVANCING NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT
EASTERLY BUT RAPIDLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS AT
2K FT. OTHERWISE...IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THIS AS A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE TROF ALOFT ADVANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS SENDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ELEVATED BUT
STILL POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DOCKET THIS MORNING...BECOMING SURFACE BASED WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AREA WARM
SECTORS WITH THE NORTHWARD PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 63 IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES AND
PARISHES ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. THE
WATCH WILL GO UNTIL 2 PM TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
DISCUSSION...
RAINS/SHOWERS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INCLUDING THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST INTO LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI... AND ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST WITH A TRAILING WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS COMING FROM A
TROF BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
TODAY WE ARE LOOKING AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE
THREAT THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE FROM WINDS AND HAIL ALTHOUGH A TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
ALSO THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM
SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION... RAINS WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED TODAY. THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ENDING AROUND
SUNRISE.
WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THIS MESS OFF TO
THE EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. RAINS
FINALLY ENDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN
COOL DRY WEATHER BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE DOWNSIDE IS RAINS MOVE BACK INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND. 19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 77 60 73 54 71 / 80 90 20 10 10
KBPT 76 60 73 56 73 / 80 70 20 10 10
KAEX 71 59 69 50 69 / 90 90 20 20 10
KLFT 78 66 73 55 70 / 70 90 20 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST.
MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...WEST CAMERON.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...
ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
632 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING
STORM ON THE GULF COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING VIS SATL IMAGERY SHOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL PA WITH JUST A BIT OF CIRRUS IN SPOTS. HIGH LVL WAA AHEAD
OF DEEPENING MISS VALL TROF WILL SPREAD INCREASING CIRRUS ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER DARK. HOW QUICKLY CIRRUS SHIELD ARRIVES WILL
DETERMINE HOW COLD IT GETS TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING BASED ON
UPSTREAM SATL TRENDS AND RAP OUTPUT...IS THAT CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
BTWN 01Z-04Z OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...BUT REMAIN THIN ENOUGH FOR
ADDITIONAL RAD COOLING AND MIN TEMPS IN THE L30S.
LATEST MDL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH DAWN OVR
THE ENTIRE AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z ACROSS
THE S TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT AS A DEVELOPING STORM TAKES AIM AT THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN
TO THE AREA. THE NOSE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SSE LLJ WILL BE
SURGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PUSHING AN AREA
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS INTO THE REGION. ENSEMBLE PLUMES SUGGEST
A WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN ON THE ORDER OF .50" TO 1.00"
STARTING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTH...AND REACHING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
WE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY COLD AIR DAMMED MONDAY...SO TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT AND
BECOME MAINLY ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO SWING EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BEHIND THE
MONDAYS RAIN-MAKER...AND STICK AROUND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES BY.
THURSDAY LOOKS MILD AND MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BLEEDING ACROSS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A GUSTY SW FLOW SHOULD
HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A
BROAD COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE REGION. WITH A LITTLE
PUSH FROM THIS SECOND FRONT...THE MAIN INITIAL FRONT WILL
HOPEFULLY PUSH SOUTH OF PA...LOWERING THE POPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MOVE IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SRLY FLOW MOVING INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...ALLOWING FOR FAIR WEATHER AND A CHANCE AT ANOTHER WARM UP.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NICE DRY...SUNNY AFT. VFR WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLDS.
21Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN LOWER AND
THICKEN RAPIDLY DURING MONDAY AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST
OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH RAIN...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z MONDAY....AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LOOK FOR RESTRICTED FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY-MID DAY
TUESDAY...BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SHOWERS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TUESDAY...WITH MANY AREAS RETURNING TO
VFR DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WESTERN MOUNTAINS...KJST
UP THROUGH KBFD...MAY CONTINUE WITH LOWER CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY IN THE COOL- MOIST NW FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
.TUE...MVFR WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS N/W. MVFR TO VFR CNTRL-EAST.
.WED...MAINLY VFR.
.THU...MAINLY VFR.
.FRI...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
539 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING
STORM ON THE GULF COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EARLY EVENING VIS SATL IMAGERY SHOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL PA WITH JUST A BIT OF CIRRUS IN SPOTS. HIGH LVL WAA AHEAD
OF DEEPENING MISS VALL TROF WILL SPREAD INCREASING CIRRUS ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER DARK. HOW QUICKLY CIRRUS SHIELD ARRIVES WILL
DETERMINE HOW COLD IT GETS TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING BASED ON
UPSTREAM SATL TRENDS AND RAP OUTPUT...IS THAT CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE
BTWN 01Z-04Z OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...BUT REMAIN THIN ENOUGH FOR
ADDITIONAL RAD COOLING AND MIN TEMPS IN THE L30S.
LATEST MDL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH DAWN OVR
THE ENTIRE AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z ACROSS
THE S TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT AS A DEVELOPING STORM TAKES AIM AT THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN
TO THE AREA. THE NOSE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SSE LLJ WILL BE
SURGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PUSHING AN AREA
OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS INTO THE REGION. ENSEMBLE PLUMES SUGGEST
A WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN ON THE ORDER OF .50" TO 1.00"
STARTING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTH...AND REACHING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
WE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY COLD AIR DAMMED MONDAY...SO TEMPS WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT AND
BECOME MAINLY ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROF IS
EXPECTED TO SWING EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BEHIND THE
MONDAYS RAIN-MAKER...AND STICK AROUND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
LAGGING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES BY.
THURSDAY LOOKS MILD AND MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BLEEDING ACROSS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE APPROACHING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A GUSTY SW FLOW SHOULD
HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A
BROAD COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE REGION. WITH A LITTLE
PUSH FROM THIS SECOND FRONT...THE MAIN INITIAL FRONT WILL
HOPEFULLY PUSH SOUTH OF PA...LOWERING THE POPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MOVE IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SRLY FLOW MOVING INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...ALLOWING FOR FAIR WEATHER AND A CHANCE AT ANOTHER WARM UP.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN LOWER AND
THICKEN RAPIDLY DURING MONDAY AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST
OF THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH RAIN...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z MONDAY....AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LOOK FOR RESTRICTED FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY-MID DAY
TUESDAY...BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SHOWERS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TUESDAY...WITH MANY AREAS RETURNING TO
VFR DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WESTERN MOUNTAINS...KJST
UP THROUGH KBFD...MAY CONTINUE WITH LOWER CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY IN THE COOL- MOIST NW FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
.TUE...MVFR WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS N/W. MVFR TO VFR CNTRL-EAST.
.WED...MAINLY VFR.
.THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A combination of MVFR and IFR conditions continue across the
terminals early this afternoon. Light rain showers are currently
affecting the KABI terminal with some fog reducing visibilities
to 3 to 4SM at KJCT and KBBD. Should see an improvement in both CIGS
and visibilities by late afternoon with VFR/MVFR dominating. Some
scattered showers will be possible primarily across the KABI and
KSJT terminals through late afternoon. Carrying VCSH for now due to
coverage uncertainty. MVFR/IFR CIGS expected to return late tonight
into Monday morning, with VFR returning by afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2014/
UPDATE...
The forecast was updated to increase POPs slightly across central
and western counties this afternoon and to lower max temps a few
degrees.
Spotty light rain showers continue across mainly the Big Country
late this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms were
also entering extreme western portions of the Big Country and
Concho Valley. Latest HRRR/3km WRF data shows this area of
precipitation moving east across the area this afternoon. Mid
level lapse rates (700-500mb) will increase to 7 to 8 DEG C/KM
this afternoon, so will continue to keep a mention of thunderstorms
in the forecast. Severe weather is not anticipated but a few of
the stronger cells will be capable of producing small hail and
gusty winds. Abundant cloud cover and precip will hold temperatures
down across much of the area this afternoon with highs mainly in
the upper 50s and lower 60s. Some drier air will enter southwest
counties later this afternoon with some partial clearing expected.
This should allow temperatures to reach the upper 60s and lower
70s across this area.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Widespread stratus will continue across West Central Texas through
much of the next 24 hours. As a result, MVFR/IFR CIGS are expected
at the terminals. There may be some improvement this afternoon at
the KSOA and KSJT terminals due to low level westerly flow bringing
low level dry air, and have gone with VFR conditions. Low clouds
will return to much of the area late tonight. An upper level trough
will bring increasing lift, resulting in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Have continued VCSH at the KABI and KBBD
terminals for today.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Latest satellite imagery showing low clouds have spread north
across all of West Central Texas. Aloft, upper level trough was
located over the southwest U.S., with trough axis along the
Arizona/New Mexico border. Ahead of the trough, weak large-scale
ascent was over Texas as evident by a few light showers over the
eastern half of our area.
For today, as the upper level system moves east into the Southern
Plains, mid and upper level forcing will increase across West
Central Texas. Showers will become more widespread especially
across the eastern half of the area. The HRRR convective allowing
model indicates activity picking up over the Heartland and
Northwest Hill Country during the morning hours(after 10Z). Have
the highest POPS (likely to high end chance) across the eastern
1/3 of the area, decreasing to slight chance southwest of a
Sterling City to San Angelo to Junction line as forcing will be
much weaker. The mid level lapse rates will increase to 7 to 8 DEG
C/KM later today so isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A
couple of storms will have the potential to produce small hail,
gusty winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Rainfall
amounts will average 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch, with the higher
amounts across eastern 1/3 of the area. A few areas like the
Northern Edwards Plateau will not even receive a tenth of an inch.
Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s across the western Concho
Valley and along the I-10 corridor.
For tonight, the best large-scale ascent will be located east of
West Central Texas. Will keep the slight chance POPS going across
mainly the Big Country, otherwise going with a dry forecast. Lows
will be in the 40s.
LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
On Monday, we may have some lingering showers around the area as
a shortwave currently moving southeast into the Pacific Northwest
out of southwestern Canada will move through the main upper level
trough before it moves east of the area. Have kept the lower end
slight chance PoPs going for the area. If any precipitation
occurs, the main mode would likely be showers again, but an
isolated thunderstorm or two would still be possible as cold
temperatures associated with the upper level low will help
increase lapse rates aloft. In addition, northerly flow at the
surface will bring in drier air resulting in an inverted V
soundings for southern areas, which could lead to gusty winds at
the surface underneath any showers, virga, or thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with this activity.
Tuesday through the middle of the week, we can expect dry
weather, and warming temperatures. Dry northwest flow aloft
Tuesday into Wednesday will be replaced by low amplitude ridging,
or zonal flow Thursday and Friday. Gulf moisture will move back
into the area by the second half of the week as well with
persistent southerly low level flow. After Friday, models disagree
on timing and strength of another possible trough moving through
the area, so have made very minimal changes to the forecast beyond
Day 4.
FIRE WEATHER...
With cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation through
Monday for most of the area, fire weather conditions will not be
a concern for most of the area.
However, by Tuesday, rain chances move out, and temperatures
begin to warm back up. Elevated to near critical conditions will
be possible Tuesday through the end of next week, and especially
on Wednesday and Thursday for areas west of an Abilene to Sonora
line, as southerly winds pick up to 15 to 20 mph, and relative
humidity values fall to 15 to 20 percent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 60 45 70 41 74 / 50 20 20 10 0
San Angelo 67 44 72 41 77 / 30 10 20 10 0
Junction 68 43 73 39 79 / 20 10 20 20 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.AVIATION...
RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW STORMS ARE ON THE DOWN TREND AND
GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL. HAVE TIMED OUT CURRENT STORMS BY 19Z AND THINK TAF SITES CAN
EXPECT ONLY SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF AFTERNOON/EVENING. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC SINCE THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SITES
REPORTING IFR AND LIFR BUT MANY METROPLEX SITES REMAIN VFR. I HAVE
LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SO HAVE KEPT
FORECAST LOWER. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE ON THE GROUND...EXPECT BR
AND IFR CIGS TO OCCUR BY MID EVENING AND LAST THROUGH
SUNRISE...TRENDING UP DURING THE MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY SO HAVE ADDED
VCSH AND WE WILL HAVE TO REFINE THE TSRA THREAT FOR THAT PERIOD.
84
&&
.UPDATE...
12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS MUCAPE ABOUT DOUBLE WHAT WAS FORECAST...
NEAR 700 J/KG. LATEST RAP NOW INDICATING AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. EARLY RADAR TRENDS
CONFIRM AMPLE INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE WITH ALREADY ONE SEVERE
STORM IN BOSQUE COUNTY THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
SHOW THE NEW WATCH AND MENTION A THREAT FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS...PERHAPS UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN OTHER PRODUCTS. AGAIN
STRONGEST STORMS AND BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS
MORNING...AND NO CHANGE WITH THAT THINKING. TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW ENCROACHING UPON THE REGION AND
AREA VWPS SHOW 850MB WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASED TO
30KT DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION AS RICH GULF MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTHWARD AND OVER A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH
TEXAS TODAY AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES THE CATALYST FOR
PARCELS TO ACHIEVE THEIR LFC. THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
COINCIDENT WITH STEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL YIELD 200-600 J/KG OF CAPE WITH PARCELS LIFTED NEAR
850MB. THE HIGHEST MUCAPE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA WHERE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE GREATEST TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE INSTABILITY GETS EXHAUSTED...WITH PRIMARILY SHOWERS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A DRY SLOT WILL
ROTATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP END MOST OF THE
CONVECTION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...WRAP-AROUND RAIN MAY WORK BACK INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AS A TROWAL DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW THAT TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER. ALL RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN
END BY MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER THE
AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S...WITH TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 40S DURING PERIODS OF RAIN THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TOMORROW PUTTING
NORTH TEXAS IN A REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE. THIS
DOWNGLIDE SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUD COVER...WITH BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST EXPECTED BY NOON. USUALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THESE
TROUGHS WE ARE IN REGION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN DROPPING A STRONG POCKET OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY DOWN
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE EVENING HOURS.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL
OCCUR...ALL SIGNS THAT FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IS
FORECAST. 500MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR -25C...WHICH IS
EXTRAORDINARILY COLD FOR APRIL. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S WILL YIELD 500-1000J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HI-RES WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS
AS A RESULT. WHILE CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOK A LITTLE TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODES AT THIS TIME...THE EXTREMELY
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH FREEZING LEVELS DROPPING TO 8000FT WOULD
SUPPORT A SMALL HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER IF MORE SUNSHINE DID OCCUR
MONDAY...THE STRONGER HEATING WOULD INCREASE THE SUPERCELL/HAIL
THREAT. FURTHERMORE BECAUSE WE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH MONDAY...ANY SUPERCELL STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY BE LEFT
MOVING OR ANTI-CYCLONIC.
RAPID CLEARING WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THIS SHOULD MIX STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TUESDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE LIMITED BY COOLISH TEMPS
WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR 70 DEGREES...AND WHAT SHOULD BE MOIST FUELS
FROM THE FORECASTED RAINFALL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DIE OFF AND THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES
OVER NORTH TEXAS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S EAST TO UPPER
40S WEST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS SUNNY AND VERY NICE WITH HIGHS WARMING
TO NEAR 80. SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN
THURSDAY AS WELL...BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION.
EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST/STRONGEST AND BRINGS
IT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS IT AND BRINGS
IT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE TEMPERED BY A STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION...AND
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT
SITS OVER THE GULF MID-LATE WEEK. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
THAN THE GFS...AND BRING LOW POPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE A STRONG FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME
RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND BEHIND IT. TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 54 48 65 44 71 / 100 40 30 20 0
WACO, TX 57 48 67 46 72 / 90 20 30 20 0
PARIS, TX 54 47 62 45 66 / 100 60 30 20 0
DENTON, TX 54 46 64 43 70 / 100 40 30 20 0
MCKINNEY, TX 54 47 64 44 68 / 100 40 30 20 0
DALLAS, TX 54 48 65 45 71 / 100 40 30 20 0
TERRELL, TX 54 48 64 44 69 / 100 30 30 20 0
CORSICANA, TX 56 49 65 45 69 / 100 20 20 20 0
TEMPLE, TX 59 47 68 45 73 / 80 20 20 20 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 54 45 67 42 73 / 90 30 30 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
553 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS ON THE BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. 06.21Z RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS AREA IS IN THE BELT OF HIGHEST
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000J/KG IN THIS REGION. THIS
AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS A LITTLE BETTER SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS THANKS TO AN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH. THE 06.21Z HRRR IS IN LINE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND
SHOWS IT MAINLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD ALONG THE CONVERGENCE IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEAKENING AS IT REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN.
AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT THAT
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS AS WELL. FREEZING LEVELS
ARE FAIRLY LOW AT 6-7KFT ALONG WITH DONOVAN HEIGHTS ONLY BEING
AROUND 17KFT...BUT THINK THAT LACK OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL KEEP
ANY UPDRAFTS FROM BEING SUSTAINED. ONE COCORAHS REPORT OF PEA
SIZED HAIL NEAR ELLENDALE MN ALREADY AND THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE
EXTENT OF HOW HIGH THE HAIL GETS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
FORECAST CONCERN IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NEAR DETROIT AND LOW
PRESSURE FROM MN TO NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO
LEADING TO CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS IA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN WHERE MOST UNSTABLE AIR SEEN JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUD SHIELD HAS BEEN ALL DAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN ND AND WILL HELP TO DRIVE THE LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE A
LARGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MAIN CONCERN IS RAIN CHANCES WITH THESE FEATURES. LOOKING LIKE THE
INITIAL CLOUD BAND AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN OR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WANE FOR A TIME...BUT INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE WAVE AND FRONT MOVE IN...AIDED BY DEFORMATION ON THE
NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT HOWEVER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
LOOKING LIKE A MORE MILD OR NORMAL APRIL TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL
TAKE HOLD THIS WEEK. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING FOR A
FEW DAYS AND WEAK TROUGHING FOR A FEW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TUE/WED...AND INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING
THIS SYSTEM POSES PROBABLY THE BIGGEST DILEMMA OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED THE FRONT WOULD HANG UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. BUT LATER SOLUTIONS NOW POINTING TO SOME
WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND THE FIRST ONE...
RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PUSH WITH A MORE TRANSIENT
RAIN EVENT. GFS HAD LATCHED ONTO THIS ALREADY WITH ITS 06Z
RUN...AND 12Z CONTINUED. LATEST 12Z ECMWF NOW ALSO ON BOARD WITH
THIS. WITH MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON A SOLUTION...
DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. FOR NOW WAS CONSERVATIVE
WITH CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUT MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER
THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED VCSH AT
BOTH KRST/KLSE AFTER 20-21Z. STILL ASSESSING IF THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WELL...BUT CHANCES
OF ONE AFFECTING EITHER AERODROME ARE PRETTY SMALL...SO OPTED NOT
TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
REMAIN VFR. LOOKING FOR THESE SHRA TO EVENTUALLY FIZZLE OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL MONDAY MORNING
AND THIS WILL BE BASED ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. IF WE
SCATTER...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MORE
FOG AS A RESULT. THINKING CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN BROKEN ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THIS BUT DID INCLUDE 3-5SM BR...BANKING ON SOME HOLES
IN THE SKY COVER. EXPECTING SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN SHRA
MONDAY...BUT THIS DOESNT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND NOON.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR RATHER GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
TO SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1236 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH
MOVING EAST THROUGH MN. RAP MODEL BRINGS IN A 0-3KM MUCAPE POOL OF
500-1000 J/KG BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RAP DEW POINTS
SEEM A BIT OVERDONE IN THE M-U40S...BUT MODIFIED CAPE WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S WOULD STILL YIELD 300-800J/KG. THIS IS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING. OTHERWISE...MORE SPRING-LIKE
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TODAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 50S
NORTH OF I-94...TO A FEW LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-90.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-
SECTION...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP THE SYSTEM/S DEFORMATION REGION OF PCPN NORTH-WEST OF THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SUBTLE FEATURES THAT COULD STILL RESULT IN
SOME PCPN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING...WITH SOME MINOR RIPPLES
MOVING DOWN THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAKES TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES PROBLEMATIC...AND WILL LIKELY USE BROAD
STROKES WITH THE CHANCES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DUE HINT THAT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WILL WORK SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...DROPPING
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER THAT NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE...COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKER SIGNALS...COULD
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL SLATED TO BE MORE ZONAL TO RIDGING FOR MUCH
OF THE NEW WEEK...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A RELATIVELY MILD AIR
MASS. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES VIA THE ECMWF STILL HOVER AROUND +1. IT
WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEKS.
THAT SAID...ITS NOT GOING TO BE PCPN FREE.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA MID WEEK...STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION AS IT PASSES WED
NIGHT/THU. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WED NIGHT...AND THE GFS/EC SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD DRIVE ACROSS IT. SOME LOW/MID LEVEL QG
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. SATURATION COULD BE AN ISSUE AS
TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY TRENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION...WHERE SATURATION IS DEEPER.
THE WEEKEND IS SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TAKES A NORTHEAST TRACK TOWARD THE REGION. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND THE PREV ECMWF RUN...WITH THE EC A BIT FASTER. HOWEVER...THE
06.00Z EC IS MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS THINKING. WITH THE GULF OPEN
AND A STRONG FEED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...A BROAD AREA OF PCPN LOOKS LIKELY...WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
RAIN FALLING ON THE REGION. IF REALIZED...WOULD LIKELY SEE RISES ON
AREA RIVERS/STREAMS. GOING TO SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR
NOW. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED VCSH AT
BOTH KRST/KLSE AFTER 20-21Z. STILL ASSESSING IF THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WELL...BUT CHANCES
OF ONE AFFECTING EITHER AERODROME ARE PRETTY SMALL...SO OPTED NOT
TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
REMAIN VFR. LOOKING FOR THESE SHRA TO EVENTUALLY FIZZLE OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL MONDAY MORNING
AND THIS WILL BE BASED ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. IF WE
SCATTER...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MORE
FOG AS A RESULT. THINKING CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN BROKEN ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THIS BUT DID INCLUDE 3-5SM BR...BANKING ON SOME HOLES
IN THE SKY COVER. EXPECTING SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN SHRA
MONDAY...BUT THIS DOESNT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND NOON.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR RATHER GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
TO SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS