Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/06/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
345 PM MDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...A FEW ECHOES SHOWING UP ON THE 1.5 DEGREE SCAN OVER NORTHERN PARK COUNTY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN CLEAR CREEK COUNTY BOUNDARY WHERE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS COMBINING WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SHOWS THESE WEAK SHOWERS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS BY THIS EVENING WITH OTHER SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY HIGH BASED WITH MINIMAL RAIN OR SNOW OCCURRING AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND LOCAL UPSLOPE WEAKENS. ALONG NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WAVE CLOUD HAD DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S. STILL SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL UPSTREAM WHICH WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WEAK LIFT INCREASES ACROSS MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MINS FAIRLY MILD IN VALLEY AREAS. ON SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES DURING THE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD COLORADO. MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND DEEPENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MID LEVEL AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. PLAINS TO REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. DURING THE AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. MOST OF THE LIFT STAYS SOUTH OF COLORADO WITH ONLY WEAK OROGRAPHICS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BUT DECENT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. DID BUMP THE MOUNTAIN POPS MOST LOCATIONS AS A RESULT. WITH LACK OF OROGRAPHICS...SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. ACROSS PLAINS...MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. WITH THE INCREASING LIFT AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES...SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHERE THE UPSLOPE WILL OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN. TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS DUE TO CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...BROAD TROUGH MOVES ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY...KEEPING A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THERE IS SOME COOLING ALOFT SO THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING SNOW TO THE SURFACE ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH STILL AT FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE PRETTY LOCALIZED AS SNOW FROM THE LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MELT. MODELS STILL TRENDING A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING ONTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTHEAST OF US THOUGH...BUT MAYBE BETTER COOLING AND MORE WIND. SOME SHOWERS ALREADY GOT ADDED FOR MONDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL LIKELY BE VERY SHORT LIVED...PERHAPS JUST A LINE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY...THEN RAPID WARMING ALOFT/DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ECMWF STILL HAS ALL THIS A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH LESS IMPACT THAN WHAT THE GFS SHOWS...AND RAPID CLEARING DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WARM RIDGE COMES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY IS STILL LOOKING PRETTY DRY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD WARMING...ONLY CONCERN IS IF SOME CLOUDS COME IN BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE IT AT THIS POINT. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED THINGS UP A LITTLE OVER GUIDANCE AGAIN...COULD WIND UP AROUND 80 IF NOTHING MESSES IT UP. A SHORTWAVE WELL NORTH OF US SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY...AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER WAVE COMING OVER IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. ECMWF HAS INSISTED ON A BIT STRONGER FRONT THURSDAY...AND HAS A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN THE LATEST RUN. BUT DETAILS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE. NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME COOLING IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN ORDER. && .AVIATION...WAVE CLOUD HAD DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...STILL QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE DECREASING BY 01Z WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...THEN BECOME NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE CEILINGS AROUND 6000 FEET AGL BY 21Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...D-L LONG TERM....GIMMESTAD AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
200 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT 12Z NAM/14Z RUC/14Z HRRR IDEA OF CURRENT BATCH OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN DISSIPATING UNDER THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE AREA OF RAIN OF W/CENTRAL PA BEING SLOW TO PROGRESS E. AS A RESULT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS AND ONSHORE FLOW - TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT MOVE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR SO FROM CURRENT LEVELS AT MOST AREAS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TREK TOWARD THE REGION. AS IT DOES SO...A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE RATHER LIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NY. STORM TOTAL QPF IS ANYWHERE FROM A THIRD TO A HALF INCH. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MORNING. A DOWN SLOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PARENT LOW IN CANADA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 MPH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A ZONAL UPPER FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...GIVE WAY TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING AND PUSHING TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON THIS AMPLIFICATION...WITH SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES LYING IN TIMING OF PAC SHORTWAVE AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASING WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AS WELL AS UPSTREAM RIDGING. THIS PLAYS OUT IN SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK/TIMING OF RESULTANT STRONG LOW PRESSURE TUE INTO WED...WHICH FIRST EMERGES FROM THE SW GULF STATES SUN NIGHT...TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MON NIGHT...AND THEN UP THOUGH THE NORTHEAST OR ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUE/WED. WITH A GULF MOISTURE FEED AND STRONG DYNAMICS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 1+ INCH RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TOWARDS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. HAVE TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO CAT FOR MON NIGHT BASED ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY. BASED ON SETUP...EXPECTATION IS FOR TAPERING POPS TUES MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT. THEN INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKELY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TUE AFT AND ONCE AGAIN WED AFT...COMBINED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS... WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AS DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH. BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE REGION ON SUN. ON MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS...DEVELOPING AFT RAIN AND DEVELOPING BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY LIMIT TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS. TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT WED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION HOLDING A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE...BUT THEN LIKELY MODERATING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WITH THE WINDS. ESE FLOW WITH GUSTS 18-25 KTS INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE WNW AFTER 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. VARYING MVFR/VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF CIGS/VIS DECREASING AS RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS/VIS MOVE IN AFTER 00Z WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH A MORE PERSISTENT RAIN AFTER 21Z. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO BE 22-05Z WITH DRIZZLE THEN LINGERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE...SO COULD SEE VIS DROP BELOW 1 SM AT SOME SPOTS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS PSBL WITH PERIODIC LIGHT PCPN THIS AFTN. START TIME OF HEAVIER PCPN THIS EVENING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE THROUGH 21Z. START TIME OF HEAVIER PCPN THIS EVENING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS PSBL WITH PERIODIC LIGHT PCPN THIS AFTN. START TIME OF HEAVIER PCPN THIS EVENING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS PSBL WITH PERIODIC LIGHT PCPN THIS AFTN. START TIME OF HEAVIER PCPN THIS EVENING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE THIS AFTN. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE THIS AFTN. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SAT AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. W WINDS G20-25KT. .SUNDAY...VFR. .MON...RAIN WITH MVFR CONDS AND INCREASING E-SE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. .TUE...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS...THEN VFR. WSW WINDS G20-25KT .WED...VFR. && .MARINE... MADE MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT SUSTAINED FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A RESULT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S THEN SW AND THEN W WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA IN THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO SCA CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE EXISTING SCA THROUGH 6PM SATURDAY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCA WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND SCA OVER THESE WATERS JUST YET. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD HAVE WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA SAT NIGHT AND OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW SCA ON SUN. THE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALES MIGHT EVEN BE REACHED ON THE OCEAN WATERS MON NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN BY THU AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES BACK INTO THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... THE REGION WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 4/10 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE 1+ INCH OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. && .EQUIPMENT... THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE): WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/NV NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...SEARS MARINE...MALOIT/JP/NV HYDROLOGY...JP/NV EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1225 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT 12Z NAM/14Z RUC/14Z HRRR IDEA OF CURRENT BATCH OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN DISSIPATING UNDER THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE AREA OF RAIN OF W/CENTRAL PA BEING SLOW TO PROGRESS E. AS A RESULT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS AND ONSHORE FLOW - TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT MOVE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR SO FROM CURRENT LEVELS AT MOST AREAS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TREK TOWARD THE REGION. AS IT DOES SO...A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE RATHER LIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NY. STORM TOTAL QPF IS ANYWHERE FROM A THIRD TO A HALF INCH. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MORNING. A DOWN SLOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PARENT LOW IN CANADA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 MPH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A ZONAL UPPER FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...GIVE WAY TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING AND PUSHING TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON THIS AMPLIFICATION...WITH SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES LYING IN TIMING OF PAC SHORTWAVE AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASING WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AS WELL AS UPSTREAM RIDGING. THIS PLAYS OUT IN SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK/TIMING OF RESULTANT STRONG LOW PRESSURE TUE INTO WED...WHICH FIRST EMERGES FROM THE SW GULF STATES SUN NIGHT...TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MON NIGHT...AND THEN UP THOUGH THE NORTHEAST OR ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUE/WED. WITH A GULF MOISTURE FEED AND STRONG DYNAMICS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 1+ INCH RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TOWARDS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. HAVE TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO CAT FOR MON NIGHT BASED ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY. BASED ON SETUP...EXPECTATION IS FOR TAPERING POPS TUES MORNING BEHIND COLD FRONT. THEN INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKELY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TUE AFT AND ONCE AGAIN WED AFT...COMBINED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS... WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AS DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH. BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE REGION ON SUN. ON MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS...DEVELOPING AFT RAIN AND DEVELOPING BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY LIMIT TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS. TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT WED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION HOLDING A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE...BUT THEN LIKELY MODERATING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRINGING DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS FOR TODAY...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS MIXING IN BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 04Z TONIGHT...BCMG LIGHT AND VRB. VARYING MVFR/VFR CIGS THROUGH MID DAY...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF CIGS DECREASING AS RAIN MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTN. IFR CIGS/VIS MOVE IN AFTER 00Z WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH A MORE PERSISTENT RAIN AFTER 21Z. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO BE 22-05Z WITH LIGHT RAIN THEN LINGERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY START +/- 1 HOUR IN TAF. HEAVIER RAIN MAY START +1 HOUR. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY START +/- 1 HOUR IN TAF. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY START +/- 1 HOUR IN TAF. LIGHT RAIN MAY START +1 HOUR. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY START +/- 1 HOUR IN TAF. LIGHT RAIN MAY START +1 HOUR. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN/MVFR CIGS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN/MVFR CIGS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SAT...BECOMING VFR DURING THE MORNING. W WINDS G20-25KT. .SUNDAY...VFR. .MON...RAIN WITH MVFR CONDS AND INCREASING E-SE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. .MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. .TUE...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS...THEN VFR. WSW WINDS G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... MADE MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT SUSTAINED FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A RESULT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S THEN SW AND THEN W WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA IN THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO SCA CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE EXISTING SCA THROUGH 6PM SATURDAY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCA WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND SCA OVER THESE WATERS JUST YET. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD HAVE WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA SAT NIGHT AND OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW SCA ON SUN. THE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALES MIGHT EVEN BE REACHED ON THE OCEAN WATERS MON NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN BY THU AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES BACK INTO THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... THE REGION WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 4/10 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE 1+ INCH OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. && .EQUIPMENT... THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE): WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/NV NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...SEARS MARINE...MALOIT/JP/NV HYDROLOGY...JP/NV EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH RAIN...PERHAPS STARTING A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE ONSET EARLY...ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THE STORM PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS EARLY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN DRY WEATHER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1240 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED SOME POSSIBLE RAIN WORKING INTO SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING LIGHT RAIN HAD STARTED AT WHITE PLAINS BUT NOT RAIN AT KPOU YET. DBZ VALUES WERE OVER 20 INTO SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY SO SUSPECT SOME RAIN WAS FALLING. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS RAIN CHANCES...INCREASING TO LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY THROUGH DAWN...MUCH LOWER VALUES (BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE THRESHOLD) CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. FOR NOW...LEFT THIS ALONE ALTHOUGH WE FOLLOW TRENDS ON THE RADAR. THE HRRR INDICATED NO RAIN SHOULD FALL NORTH OF HUDSON THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE ONLY WE DID WAS ACTUALLY RAISE A FEW TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT PER THICKENING CIRRUS CLOUDS. GLENS FALLS ACTUALLY SAW A TEMPERATURE RISE IN THE PAST HOUR (FROM 34 TO 35) INDICATIVE OF THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED STRETCHED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY START TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PARK....UPPER 20S LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...LOWER 30S NORTHERN CATSKILLS CAPITAL REGION EAST TO THE BERKSHIRES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD....A STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN...AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTN FOR THE RAIN TO BEGIN IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS NORTHWARD. MAX TEMPS LOOK COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE IN EVENING HOURS...AS A LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 HPA OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARDS LAKE HURON. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NYC AREA...ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT. STEADY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT TO SHOWERS. WITH THE SECONDARY LOW STARTING TO DEVELOP...SOME COLDER AIR MAY WORK IN...BOTH ALOFT AND AT LOW LEVELS...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SRN GREENS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SNOW BEFORE ENDING. ANY SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS VERY MINIMAL...AND WILL BE ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE HIGH TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE BEST CHC WILL BE IN THE MORNING...AND ACROSS NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS. A GUSTY W-SW BREEZE LOOKS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL BEGIN CLOUDY EVERYWHERE...SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE BY AFTN...ESP FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH 20S FOR MOST AREAS...AND A CONTINUED GUSTY BREEZE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY ANS THEN MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME EXPECT ANY PCPN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY PM INTO THURSDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AT H5 WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATE MONDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE ECMWF/GFS/AND GGEM ALL HAVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE WITH THE GGEM THE FASTEST AND THE GFS THE SLOWEST. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE GGEM TAKES THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH THE THE ECMWF HAVING TO LOW NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE GFS HAVING THE LOW NEAR BUFFALO. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE GFS TAKES THE SURFACE LOW RIGHT OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR QUEBEC CITY. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS IN TERMS OF IMPACT ACROSS OUR REGION. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AS THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IMPACT THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN FLATTENS OUT ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. HIGH ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHEAST. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KABL/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES UNTIL EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION. BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z SATURDAY CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MAINLY IFR AS RAIN BECOMES HEAVIER AND CIGS LOWER. TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MIOD/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A KPOU WHERE -RA WILL FALL FOR A FEW HOURS AS A WEAK WAVE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITHTHE -RA CONDITIONS AT KPOU ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY MID OR LATE MORNING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSER ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH IN THE FORECAST...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. GRADUALLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT ALL THE TAF SITES ON FRIDAY...GENERALLY AT 8 TO 10 KTS...BUT AT KALB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL HELP KEEP FUELS RATHER SATURATED. MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE FORESTED AND IN THE HIGH TERRAIN... CONTINUE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IN PLACE. WHILE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...AND END BY SATURDAY MORNING. QPF LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ONE THIRD AND TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE NERFC IS NOT FORECASTING ANY RIVER FLOODING AND THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE DOESN/T SUGGEST RIVER FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT. HOWEVER...IF QPF WERE TO INCREASE...MINOR FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE...SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11 SHORT TERM...FRUGIS LONG TERM...11 AVIATION...GJM FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1240 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH RAIN...PERHAPS STARTING A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE ONSET EARLY...ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THE STORM PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS EARLY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN DRY WEATHER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1240 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED SOME POSSIBLE RAIN WORKING INTO SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING LIGHT RAIN HAD STARTED AT WHITE PLAINS BUT NOT RAIN AT KPOU YET. DBZ VALUES WERE OVER 20 INTO SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY SO SUSPECT SOME RAIN WAS FALLING. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS RAIN CHANCES...INCREASING TO LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY THROUGH DAWN...MUCH LOWER VALUES (BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE THRESHOLD) CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. FOR NOW...LEFT THIS ALONE ALTHOUGH WE FOLLOW TRENDS ON THE RADAR. THE HRRR INDICATED NO RAIN SHOULD FALL NORTH OF HUDSON THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE ONLY WE DID WAS ACTUALLY RAISE A FEW TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT PER THICKENING CIRRUS CLOUDS. GLENS FALLS ACTUALLY SAW A TEMPERATURE RISE IN THE PAST HOUR (FROM 34 TO 35) INDICATIVE OF THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED STRETCHED FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY START TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PARK....UPPER 20S LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...LOWER 30S NORTHERN CATSKILLS CAPITAL REGION EAST TO THE BERKSHIRES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD....A STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN...AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTN FOR THE RAIN TO BEGIN IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS NORTHWARD. MAX TEMPS LOOK COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE IN EVENING HOURS...AS A LOW LEVEL JET AT 850 HPA OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARDS LAKE HURON. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NYC AREA...ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT. STEADY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT TO SHOWERS. WITH THE SECONDARY LOW STARTING TO DEVELOP...SOME COLDER AIR MAY WORK IN...BOTH ALOFT AND AT LOW LEVELS...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SRN GREENS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SNOW BEFORE ENDING. ANY SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS VERY MINIMAL...AND WILL BE ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE HIGH TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE BEST CHC WILL BE IN THE MORNING...AND ACROSS NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS. A GUSTY W-SW BREEZE LOOKS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL BEGIN CLOUDY EVERYWHERE...SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE BY AFTN...ESP FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH 20S FOR MOST AREAS...AND A CONTINUED GUSTY BREEZE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY ANS THEN MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME EXPECT ANY PCPN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY PM INTO THURSDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AT H5 WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATE MONDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE ECMWF/GFS/AND GGEM ALL HAVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE WITH THE GGEM THE FASTEST AND THE GFS THE SLOWEST. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE GGEM TAKES THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH THE THE ECMWF HAVING TO LOW NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE GFS HAVING THE LOW NEAR BUFFALO. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE GFS TAKES THE SURFACE LOW RIGHT OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR QUEBEC CITY. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS IN TERMS OF IMPACT ACROSS OUR REGION. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AS THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IMPACT THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN FLATTENS OUT ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. HIGH ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHEAST. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z SATURDAY. TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND EVENTUALLY START TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN WITH TIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BY 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS AFTER 12Z AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AT 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AT KALB TO 22 KTS AFT 19Z FRI. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL HELP KEEP FUELS RATHER SATURATED. MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE FORESTED AND IN THE HIGH TERRAIN... CONTINUE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IN PLACE. WHILE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...AND END BY SATURDAY MORNING. QPF LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ONE THIRD AND TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE NERFC IS NOT FORECASTING ANY RIVER FLOODING AND THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE DOESN/T SUGGEST RIVER FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS UPCOMING EVENT. HOWEVER...IF QPF WERE TO INCREASE...MINOR FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE...SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11 SHORT TERM...FRUGIS LONG TERM...11 AVIATION...IRL/11 FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
738 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO SEA TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING PRECIP WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH THE DAY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. DID NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY GIVEN WARM LAKE WATERS AND SHORT FETCH WITH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. RUC/GFS AND NAM ALL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GIVEN MOS BIAS FOR THE PAST FEW DAY...WILL TREND AFTERNOON HIGHS UPWARD... MORE IN LINE WITH THE RUC MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. TONIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA IT WILL BE WEAKENING AND WITH NO ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE LIMITED. RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESTRICTED WITH PWAT VALUES QUICKLY PEAKING AROUND 1.3 INCHES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. STILL EXPECT LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH AREAS SEEING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE UP TO HALF AN INCH. KEPT LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/NORTHERN FL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REORIENT SATURDAY EVENING AND BEGIN WORKING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BEGINNING IN THE CSRA EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACHING LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE AND RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND AND THROUGH WESTERN MS WITH A SWATH OF MOISTURE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND FINALLY EXITS THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS. SCATTERED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SHOWERS IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO CENTER AROUND 03Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO THE REGION COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL MONITOR PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SECOND SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL EXIST FOR PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
403 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO SEA TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON... KEEPING PRECIP WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TODAY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. DID NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY GIVEN WARM LAKE WATERS AND SHORT FETCH WITH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. RUC/GFS AND NAM ALL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GIVEN MOS BIAS FOR THE PAST FEW DAY...WILL TREND AFTERNOON HIGHS UPWARD... MORE IN LINE WITH THE RUC MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA IT WILL BE WEAKENING AND WITH NO ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING... EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE LIMITED. RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESTRICTED WITH PWAT VALUES QUICKLY PEAKING AROUND 1.3 INCHES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. STILL EXPECT LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH AREAS SEEING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE UP TO HALF AN INCH. KEPT LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/NORTHERN FL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REORIENT SATURDAY EVENING AND BEGIN WORKING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BEGINNING IN THE CSRA EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACHING LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE AND RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND AND THROUGH WESTERN MS WITH A SWATH OF MOISTURE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND FINALLY EXITS THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL WILL KEEP WINDS UP EARLY THIS MORNING PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION. SCATTERED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY LATE THIS MORNING/NOON...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SHOWERS IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE IN THE 00Z WEST TO 04Z EASTERN CWA. ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO THE REGION COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL MONITOR PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SECOND SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL EXIST FOR PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
155 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FORECAST. FOR TONIGHT...THICKENING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP INHIBIT GOOD RADIATION AL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP OFF. FOR FRIDAY...THE HIGH RESO MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCALLY RUN WRF ARE SLOWING DOWN THE APPROACHING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA TOMORROW. THE HRRR IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE WRF...AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF RUNS FROM EARLIER. HAVE TRIED TO TAKE A BLEND..BUT LEANED PRETTY HEAVILY TOWARDS A HRRR AND SREF BLEND. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. AS FOR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SITUATION...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATTENDANT FRONT TRAILING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT KIND OF BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...STALLING ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...TEMPORARILY...ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BUT BACK TO THE SHORT TERM... SHOULD SEE A QLCS ONGOING OVERNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEW HIRES GUIDANCE IS DELAYING START OF THE CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...SO DELAYED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER EXTREME NORTHWEST BEFORE 12Z. AFTER THAT...LOOKS LIKE THE QLCS WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST... WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE QLCS. BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WOULD OF COURSE BE WITH THE QLCS ITSELF. SPC CONTINUES DAY2 SLIGHT RISK FOR NORTH GEORGIA...WITH GFS BEING A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH SEVERE PARAMETERS THAN NAM. AT 12Z...GFS HAS 100-200 J/KG MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 50-60KT 0-6KM SHEAR AND AROUND 30KT 0-1KM SHEAR ALL NOSING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA. BY 18Z... MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM ATLANTA NORTHWEST WITH AROUND 50KT 0-6KM SHEAR AND 25-30KT 0-1KM SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MOVES OUT AFTER THAT POINT WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINING IN NORTH GEORGIA CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAX CAPE VALUES DECREASING AS IT SPREADS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TOWARD 00Z. SO WITH ALL THAT...MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS BUT ESPECIALLY IN NORTH GEORGIA WITH THAT AMOUNT OF SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. GFS SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER AT 18Z MAXES OUT IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA WITH VALUES OVER 3. NAM AGAIN NOT SO IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY SPOTTY AREAS OF STP OVER 1. A LARGE AREA OF SHERB /PARAMETER FOR HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE CONVECTION/ GREATER THAN 1 /CRITICAL THRESHOLD...LIKE STP/ PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW AS WELL. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WITH QPF VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. AS ALWAYS LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS. THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT. ANOTHER NIGHT OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS TOMORROW SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT SIMILAR HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS NOTICEABLY COOLER FROM ATLANTA NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TDP LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS SHOW NO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES FROM RECENT PREVIOUS RUNS. ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS AT THIS TIME IS MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. 20 PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE STATE DURING THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AND MOVE INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM AS ITS EXITING THE AREA... BUT THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING TREND. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND A WEDGE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY...THE RAIN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. NEXT SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...AS THEY BOTH TRACK IT NORTH OF GEORGIA...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM RETURNS ON SUNDAY...MORE ACTIVE TIME PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THUS FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY UP TO 250 J/KG OF MUCAPE SHOWN IN THE GFS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE THOUGH WITH 40 TO 50KTS AT 12Z MONDAY WHILE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO STRONG...HOWEVER THE LOW CAPE VALUES WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY..THE INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH AROUND 35KTS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO SOME PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT COULD REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 11 AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AROUND 09Z AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z. COLD FRONT APPROACHING NW GA BY 18Z AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OVER THE AREA AFTER 14Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 10 TO 15KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER SUNRISE. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AND TIMING OF PRECIP. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 57 78 51 70 / 5 60 40 10 ATLANTA 60 75 51 68 / 10 70 40 10 BLAIRSVILLE 55 70 44 65 / 20 90 40 5 CARTERSVILLE 59 74 46 66 / 20 80 40 10 COLUMBUS 61 78 55 71 / 5 60 50 20 GAINESVILLE 58 72 49 69 / 20 80 50 10 MACON 57 80 55 74 / 5 40 40 20 ROME 59 75 46 67 / 30 90 30 10 PEACHTREE CITY 55 76 50 69 / 10 60 40 10 VIDALIA 59 83 62 75 / 5 10 30 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED TO THE SOUTH AND MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT IS PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EAST KENTUCKY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SURROUNDING THIS BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THAT WILL SPREAD OVER THE CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FRONT ALSO BRINGS COOLER WEATHER WITH LOWER 50S AIR FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA REPLACING THE MID 60S CURRENTLY SEEN THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S INBOUND RATHER THAN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S THAT PRECEDE THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE A SLOWLY DAMPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOME ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING BUT ITS IMPACT WOULD BE MITIGATED BY THE RISING HEIGHTS. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL FAVOR THE HRRR EARLY ON AND THEN A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS...GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PRE-FIRST PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WILL DROP THE FLOOD WATCH NOW THAT THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAS BEEN DONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXPIRING. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING RAINS WILL HOLD IN FOR MANY MORE HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO...CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT RIDGETOP THAN IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNSHINE FOR SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY LOWER HEIGHTS LIMITING THE WARMUP TO THE MID 50S IN MOST PLACES WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT A BETTER AND MORE TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST AND ALSO ALLOWS SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE NORTH INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH LATER IN THE NIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GRIDS...USED THE BC/CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT WITH LITTLE ADJUSTMENT GIVEN THE CAA PATTERN. THEREAFTER... POPULATED WITH THE CONSALL SUITE AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS... PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS AND SATURDAY DEWPOINTS. FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS...KEPT THEM LOW...IN LINE WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY AND TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUPPORTED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL LIMIT ONSET...THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD OVERPOWER THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOLER WEATHER RETURNING BY MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN FREE WEATHER LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BY MID WEEK...PROVIDING RAIN FREE WEATHER FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS...MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35 KTS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES. ANY MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. AFTER THAT... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH NO CIGS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO ENTER EAST KENTUCKY PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. A THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM THIS BEFORE THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH. THE EARLIER STORMS AND HEAVIER RAINS HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS BASICALLY COME TO AN END...THOUGH A COUPLE AREAL WARNINGS REMAIN...MAINLY SURROUNDING THE LARGER RIVERS THAT ARE RUNNING HEIGHT NEAR SALYERSVILLE AND RAVENNA. WILL LIKELY LET THE FLOOD WATCH DROP WITH THE MAIN PACKAGE UPDATE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SURROUND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND THEY ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TRACK. FOR THIS UPDATE...DID FINE TUNE THE POPS...SKY COVER...T...AND TD GRIDS ALONG WITH THE WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS MADE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER MORNING AS THE LATEST MCS IS TRACKING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. HAVE DROPPED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SEVERE WATCH FOR OUR AREA WITH THE REST ON TRACK TO BE GONE BY 11 AM. STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS THROUGH NOON...BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL KICK IN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHARP FRONT DESTINED TO BE CROSSING INTO OUR AREA. FOR THIS WE DO HAVE A WIND ADVISORY GOING INTO EFFECT STARTING AT NOON AND LASTING THROUGH 8 PM. DO EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUAL FRONT AS IT PASSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIT WITH THE MORNING ACTIVITY. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER FOR THE AREA ONCE THE MORNING MCS EXITS...TOO. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH...AS THE RUNOFF MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CREEKS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH ARE RUNNING QUITE FULL. A COUPLE OF FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID PART OF THE CWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. IN ADDITION...A FEW RIVER POINTS WILL GO INTO ACTION WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTS POSSIBLY HITTING FLOOD. THE UPDATES FOR THE GRIDS AND PRODUCTS...AFFECTED BY THE SVR WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING UPSTREAM...WITH THE KENTUCKY MESONET REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LATEST MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS SHOW THIS LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM...AND LIKELY EXITING THE EAST BY AROUND NOON TIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS UPSTREAM AND THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS LINE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STAY UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS...AS AN 850 MB JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTIVE LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WITH PEAK WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS TODAY...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AT LEAST DELAY ANY RECEDING THAN CAN TAKE PLACE. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE 30S...DEPENDING ON CLEARING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...FINALLY REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID TERM...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHTS TEMPS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWARD...TRAVERSING THROUGH KY SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A VERY STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO PULL IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT ONCE THE PRECIP GETS GOING...SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AT ONSET...AND THEN A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. IF ANY OF THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR THUNDERSTORM...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HIGH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY INHIBITOR RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE DURING THIS SYSTEM...INHIBITING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A PRIMARILY FAST MOVING...WIND PRODUCING...RAIN EVENT. THE LOW WILL LIFT JUST NE OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...SOME DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT. BUT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE REGION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE POPS TO RETURN/CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...AS THE GEM AND GFS HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 18Z TUESDAY...AND THE NAM THOUGH SHOWING SOME QPF...IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN NATURE. EITHER WAY...DRYING OR NO DRYING...ANOTHER SWING OF MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE ENTERING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE KY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR POPS IN THIS PERIOD...AS ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OR STRENGTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SET UP OF THIS PRECIP. THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH KY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD ONCE MORE. IT IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE SOME DECENT FOGGING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE GETS TRAPPED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORN. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35 KTS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES. ANY MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. AFTER THAT... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH NO CIGS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1030 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS MADE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER MORNING AS THE LATEST MCS IS TRACKING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. HAVE DROPPED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SEVERE WATCH FOR OUR AREA WITH THE REST ON TRACK TO BE GONE BY 11 AM. STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS THROUGH NOON...BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL KICK IN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHARP FRONT DESTINED TO BE CROSSING INTO OUR AREA. FOR THIS WE DO HAVE A WIND ADVISORY GOING INTO EFFECT STARTING AT NOON AND LASTING THROUGH 8 PM. DO EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUAL FRONT AS IT PASSES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIT WITH THE MORNING ACTIVITY. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER FOR THE AREA ONCE THE MORNING MCS EXITS...TOO. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH...AS THE RUNOFF MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CREEKS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH ARE RUNNING QUITE FULL. A COUPLE OF FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID PART OF THE CWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. IN ADDITION...A FEW RIVER POINTS WILL GO INTO ACTION WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTS POSSIBLY HITTING FLOOD. THE UPDATES FOR THE GRIDS AND PRODUCTS...AFFECTED BY THE SVR WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING UPSTREAM...WITH THE KENTUCKY MESONET REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LATEST MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS SHOW THIS LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM...AND LIKELY EXITING THE EAST BY AROUND NOON TIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS UPSTREAM AND THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS LINE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STAY UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS...AS AN 850 MB JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTIVE LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WITH PEAK WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS TODAY...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AT LEAST DELAY ANY RECEDING THAN CAN TAKE PLACE. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE 30S...DEPENDING ON CLEARING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...FINALLY REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID TERM...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHTS TEMPS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWARD...TRAVERSING THROUGH KY SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A VERY STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO PULL IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT ONCE THE PRECIP GETS GOING...SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AT ONSET...AND THEN A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. IF ANY OF THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR THUNDERSTORM...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HIGH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY INHIBITOR RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE DURING THIS SYSTEM...INHIBITING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A PRIMARILY FAST MOVING...WIND PRODUCING...RAIN EVENT. THE LOW WILL LIFT JUST NE OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...SOME DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT. BUT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE REGION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE POPS TO RETURN/CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...AS THE GEM AND GFS HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 18Z TUESDAY...AND THE NAM THOUGH SHOWING SOME QPF...IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN NATURE. EITHER WAY...DRYING OR NO DRYING...ANOTHER SWING OF MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE ENTERING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE KY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR POPS IN THIS PERIOD...AS ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OR STRENGTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SET UP OF THIS PRECIP. THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH KY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD ONCE MORE. IT IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE SOME DECENT FOGGING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE GETS TRAPPED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORN. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 KTS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING FURTHER INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. ONCE THIS MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE WORKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY 17Z...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE TO ENGAGE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
821 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 A STRONG TO SEVERE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY SWINGING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NASHVILLE AREA. CLOUDS TOPS IN GENERAL ARE WARMING ACCORDING TO THE IR...HOWEVER WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE...THIS CLUSTER MAY HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEST OF I-75 AFTER 8 AM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS IF THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING UPSTREAM...WITH THE KENTUCKY MESONET REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LATEST MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS SHOW THIS LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM...AND LIKELY EXITING THE EAST BY AROUND NOON TIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS UPSTREAM AND THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS LINE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STAY UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS...AS AN 850 MB JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTIVE LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WITH PEAK WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS TODAY...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AT LEAST DELAY ANY RECEDING THAN CAN TAKE PLACE. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE 30S...DEPENDING ON CLEARING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...FINALLY REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID TERM...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHTS TEMPS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWARD...TRAVERSING THROUGH KY SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A VERY STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO PULL IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT ONCE THE PRECIP GETS GOING...SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AT ONSET...AND THEN A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. IF ANY OF THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR THUNDERSTORM...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HIGH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY INHIBITOR RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE DURING THIS SYSTEM...INHIBITING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A PRIMARILY FAST MOVING...WIND PRODUCING...RAIN EVENT. THE LOW WILL LIFT JUST NE OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...SOME DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT. BUT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE REGION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE POPS TO RETURN/CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...AS THE GEM AND GFS HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 18Z TUESDAY...AND THE NAM THOUGH SHOWING SOME QPF...IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN NATURE. EITHER WAY...DRYING OR NO DRYING...ANOTHER SWING OF MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE ENTERING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE KY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR POPS IN THIS PERIOD...AS ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OR STRENGTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SET UP OF THIS PRECIP. THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH KY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD ONCE MORE. IT IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE SOME DECENT FOGGING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE GETS TRAPPED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORN. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 KTS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING FURTHER INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. ONCE THIS MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE WORKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY 17Z...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE TO ENGAGE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ MESOSCALE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
705 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 A STRONG TO SEVERE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY SWINGING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NASHVILLE AREA. CLOUDS TOPS IN GENERAL ARE WARMING ACCORDING TO THE IR...HOWEVER WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE...THIS CLUSTER MAY HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEST OF I-75 AFTER 8 AM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS IF THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING UPSTREAM...WITH THE KENTUCKY MESONET REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LATEST MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS SHOW THIS LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM...AND LIKELY EXITING THE EAST BY AROUND NOON TIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS UPSTREAM AND THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS LINE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STAY UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS...AS AN 850 MB JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTIVE LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WITH PEAK WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS TODAY...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AT LEAST DELAY ANY RECEDING THAN CAN TAKE PLACE. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE 30S...DEPENDING ON CLEARING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...FINALLY REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID TERM...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHTS TEMPS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWARD...TRAVERSING THROUGH KY SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A VERY STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO PULL IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT ONCE THE PRECIP GETS GOING...SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AT ONSET...AND THEN A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. IF ANY OF THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR THUNDERSTORM...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HIGH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY INHIBITOR RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE DURING THIS SYSTEM...INHIBITING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A PRIMARILY FAST MOVING...WIND PRODUCING...RAIN EVENT. THE LOW WILL LIFT JUST NE OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...SOME DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT. BUT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE REGION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE POPS TO RETURN/CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...AS THE GEM AND GFS HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 18Z TUESDAY...AND THE NAM THOUGH SHOWING SOME QPF...IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN NATURE. EITHER WAY...DRYING OR NO DRYING...ANOTHER SWING OF MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE ENTERING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE KY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR POPS IN THIS PERIOD...AS ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OR STRENGTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SET UP OF THIS PRECIP. THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH KY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD ONCE MORE. IT IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE SOME DECENT FOGGING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE GETS TRAPPED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORN. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE...WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO IFR/MVFR. ONCE THE INITIAL LINE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS...BEFORE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ENGAGE BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTION. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LINE OF STORMS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ MESOSCALE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING UPSTREAM...WITH THE KENTUCKY MESONET REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LATEST MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS SHOW THIS LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM...AND LIKELY EXITING THE EAST BY AROUND NOON TIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS UPSTREAM AND THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS LINE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STAY UNDER SEVERE LIMITS AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS...AS AN 850 MB JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTIVE LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WITH PEAK WINDS GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS TODAY...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AT LEAST DELAY ANY RECEDING THAN CAN TAKE PLACE. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE 30S...DEPENDING ON CLEARING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...FINALLY REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE MID TERM...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHTS TEMPS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWARD...TRAVERSING THROUGH KY SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A VERY STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO PULL IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT ONCE THE PRECIP GETS GOING...SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AT ONSET...AND THEN A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. IF ANY OF THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR THUNDERSTORM...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HIGH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY INHIBITOR RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE DURING THIS SYSTEM...INHIBITING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A PRIMARILY FAST MOVING...WIND PRODUCING...RAIN EVENT. THE LOW WILL LIFT JUST NE OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...SOME DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT. BUT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE REGION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE POPS TO RETURN/CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...AS THE GEM AND GFS HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 18Z TUESDAY...AND THE NAM THOUGH SHOWING SOME QPF...IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN NATURE. EITHER WAY...DRYING OR NO DRYING...ANOTHER SWING OF MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE ENTERING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE KY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR POPS IN THIS PERIOD...AS ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OR STRENGTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SET UP OF THIS PRECIP. THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH KY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD ONCE MORE. IT IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE SOME DECENT FOGGING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE GETS TRAPPED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORN. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE...WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO IFR/MVFR. ONCE THE INITIAL LINE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS...BEFORE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ENGAGE BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTION. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LINE OF STORMS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 .AVIATION...CEILINGS FROM STRATUS AND VIS FROM FOG AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BECOME COMMON WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING FRI MORNING WITH S WINDS BECOMING N. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/ AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND STORMS WILL BECOME SCT TO NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS AND VIS WILL CREATE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT DURING EARLY TO MID FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT EVERY TERMINAL BY MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BECOME NW TO NORTH DURING FRIDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE TO MID MORNING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/ DISCUSSION... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF JUST EMERGING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE TO THE SOUTH...A PACIFIC JET WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BAJA AND NORTHERN MX. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A 30-40KT LLJ CONTINUES ACROSS EAST TX/WRN LA PER AREA VWPS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE NE GOMEX. TO THE WEST...A SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER ERN KS...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT THROUGH ERN OK INTO NORTHERN TX. LIFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AS REGION FALLS UNDERNEATH THE DIFLUENT REGION BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTHWEST AND JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ROUGHLY COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE 12HR PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON TOMORROW. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE INDICATIONS THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY DEPICTED BY THE RUC AND HRRR MAY BE STARTING...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ECHOES STARTING TO APPEAR ON REGIONAL RADARS. THIS DOES LEND A LITTLE CREDENCE TO NAM/RUC FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED EROSION OF THE CINH SEEN IN EARLIER RAOBS AROUND THIS TIME. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. IN ANY EVENT...THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE KEPT SEVERE WORDING IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT...AND EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR ACADIANA. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE POP FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE ONLY A SHORT REPRIEVE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FCST TO BEGIN SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER...MORE SOUTHERN TRACKED...UPPER TROF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SE TX COAST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS LOUISIANA...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY PULL A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR A TWO DAY TOTAL...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE RISK SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE MEAN TROF WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS MILD BUT OTHERWISE BENIGN WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WED...THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A MODERATING TREND BEGINNING THURSDAY. MARINE... MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY SEA FOG THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO AND THEN STALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW AFFECTS THE COASTAL WATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 67 79 56 68 56 / 60 40 10 60 60 KBPT 68 78 57 68 58 / 60 30 10 60 50 KAEX 66 76 51 68 53 / 80 30 10 40 70 KLFT 68 81 57 69 58 / 60 60 20 60 70 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM... WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1120 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1120 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS WELL AS SKY COVER. OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN WHITES. PREVIOUSLY... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS EVENING...MOSTLY FOR POPS. SHOWERS CONTINUES TO CROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM ABOUT NORTH CONWAY TO ROCKLAND AND POINTS NORTH. LATEST HRRR RUN PICKING UP ON THIS PCPN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. PREV DISC... 5H TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THIS EVENING WITH A GREATER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. POPS DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER THAT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOUNTAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR TEMPS TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... NICE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SOUTH AND IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE WEST DUE TO WAA ALOFT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH WARM ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO START WITH AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH CAN EXPECT UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WHILE TO THE SOUTH WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 50S. BY THE END OF THE DAY SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO OUR SW. OUR SNOW PACK...WHICH VARIES TO NOTHING NEAR PORTLAND TO STILL ~40 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH....WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY RECEDE. OPEN WAVE ENERGY ALOFT SHIFTS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS NH AND MAINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE RAIN...TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO REACH THE 40S AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH CONCORD AND PORTSMOUTH EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 60 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BIGGER TEMPERATURE VARIATION AS COOLER AIR (30S AND 40S) WEDGE NORTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WARM TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS DOES THE WARM WEATHER AS SW WINDS CONTINUE. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. PW VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE HIGH AND ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE AS THIS SYSTEM IS BETTER RESOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR AS CLOUDS LIFT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...VFR ON MONDAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR KHIE. ALL SITES VFR ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. LONG TERM...GALES POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ153. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
755 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS EVENING...MOSTLY FOR POPS. SHOWERS CONTINUES TO CROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM ABOUT NORTH CONWAY TO ROCKLAND AND POINTS NORTH. LATEST HRRR RUN PICKING UP ON THIS PCPN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. PREV DISC... 5H TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THIS EVENING WITH A GREATER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. POPS DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER THAT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOUNTAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR TEMPS TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... NICE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SOUTH AND IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE WEST DUE TO WAA ALOFT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH WARM ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO START WITH AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH CAN EXPECT UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WHILE TO THE SOUTH WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 50S. BY THE END OF THE DAY SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO OUR SW. OUR SNOW PACK...WHICH VARIES TO NOTHING NEAR PORTLAND TO STILL ~40 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH....WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY RECEDE. OPEN WAVE ENERGY ALOFT SHIFTS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS NH AND MAINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE RAIN...TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO REACH THE 40S AND 50S AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH CONCORD AND PORTSMOUTH EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 60 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BIGGER TEMPERATURE VARIATION AS COOLER AIR (30S AND 40S) WEDGE NORTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WARM TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS DOES THE WARM WEATHER AS SW WINDS CONTINUE. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. PW VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE HIGH AND ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE AS THIS SYSTEM IS BETTER RESOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR AS CLOUDS LIFT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...VFR ON MONDAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR KHIE. ALL SITES VFR ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. LONG TERM...GALES POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ153. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
718 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 711 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE PRECIP CHANCES UPWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST RUC SHOWED A DECENT AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE THROUGH 06Z(2 AM) AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z NAM. LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 6.0 C/KM W/DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS. THE LOCAL SNOW SQUALL STUDY BEING DONE HERE SHOWED A BAND OF SNOW SQUALLS FROM 8 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ADDED UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW MAINLY NEAR THE MAINE/CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO SHOW A GRADUAL COOLDOWN THIS EVENING BUT A FEW DEGREE UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE LOW WHICH BROUGHT SOME WET SNOW AND RAIN TO THE AREA WILL BE LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZE DOWNEAST THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. SUNDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. DOWNEAST WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY AND THE NORTH WILL BEGIN CLOUDY BUT TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CRITICAL THICKNESSES EXPECT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DOWNEAST. ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS EXPECT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX. THE LOW WILL REACH MAINE LATER TUESDAY DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS TUESDAY. THE WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS MAINE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD. RIGHT NOW BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND UPPER AIR PROFILES THIS ACTIVITY WILL FALL IN FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN WITH MOST LOCATIONS HANGING ON TO ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION BY LATER ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO WITH LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST DECENT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY W TO NW WINDS MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. WHILE WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF MAINE ACROSS QUEBEC. THIS WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY WITH WARM FRONT THEN AS LOW SWINGS EAST A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PRECIP COULD START OUT AS SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN. THEN MIXING ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY AND BACK TO RAIN THE REST OF FRIDAY. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST THIS EVENING THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE REGION. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY CONDITIONS COULD REDUCE BACK TO MVFR FOR NORTHERN SITES. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH SUNDAY FOR WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE LEVELS TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
304 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 SNOW CONTINUES HEAVY OVER THE WEST TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS STORM THUS FAR. SNOW AMOUNTS SO FAR OVER THE WEST OF AT LEAST 10 INCHES IN MANY AREAS. PTYPE ISSUES AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL HAS KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER CNTRL CWA LESS THAN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME. BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT CNTRL CWA INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. JUST RECEIVED REPORT FROM SPOTTER NEAR NORWAY OF OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE HOUR WITH THIS SNOW AS IT MOVED THROUGH. BASED ON NUMEROUS REPORTS RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...THANKS TO EVERYONE FOR THOSE...WE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON PTYPE. TURNS OUT THE RUC13 HAS DECENT HANDLE AS WELL...SHOWING THE WARM LAYER AT 750MB COLLAPSING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WHICH IS WHAT ON THE GROUND REPORTS AND 88D MQT DUAL POL CC DATA INDICATE. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG WI BORDER AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN. CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA...EXPECT TOTALS INTO THIS EVENING STILL IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE. APPEARS THE MOST SNOW FROM HERE ON OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR OVER THE NCNTRL CWA...BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES. WOULD IMAGINE UPSLOPE AREAS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL STILL SEE TOTALS OVER A FOOT LOCALLY. NO CHANGES TO HAZARDS FOR NOW. TWEAKED WORDING TO DOWNPLAY ICE/SLEET AND HIT UP THE SNOW MORE. ALSO UPDATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN GRIDS AND WSW STATEMENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 KEPT SPIRIT OF PREVIOUS FORECAST UNCHANGED AS ONGOING WINTER STORM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE LESS THAN RUNS FROM 12 HOURS AGO...SO LOWERED QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY AS HEAVY PRECIP AND SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY IN AREAS EXPECTED SNOW. THE ONLY AREA NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MOSTLY SNOW IS OVER THE ERN U.P. AND AREAS SE OF A LINE FROM GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS AS ELEVATED WARM NOSE MOVES INTO THESE AREAS. ON THE N/NW FRINGES OF THE WARM NOSE...LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR PRIMARILY SLEET THIS MORNING WHILE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY THE PRECIP WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. AFTER SUNRISE TODAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO RAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. BY 18Z TODAY...COLDER AIR MOVES IN THAT WILL TURN LIQUID PRECIP TO SNOW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH STILL EXPECTED OVER SRN DELTA AND SRN MENOMINEE COUNTIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /INCLUDING WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN SO FAR SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-18 INCHES IN THE ALL SNOW AREA NW OF A LINE FROM GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS...WITH THE HIGHEST OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVES TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z SAT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE TROFS IN THE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TENDENCY FOR RIDGING OVER WRN NAMERICA OR ALONG THE W COAST AND TROFFING OVER ERN NAMERICA. RESULT WILL BE FLUCTUATION OF TEMPS BTWN ABOVE AND BLO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO. AFTER THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENTS DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA MOVES E AND THEN LIFTS NE TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. COMPARED TO TODAY...THE WEATHER SAT WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE E EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTN...BUT OTHERWISE...A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE BRIGHT SUNSHINE ON THE FRESH SNOW COVER. WITH THE EVER INCREASING MID DAY SUN ANGLE NOW THAT WE ARE INTO EARLY APR...THE FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RESPOND NICELY. OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S. IT WILL BE COOLEST (LWR 30S) OVER THE E NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER NW WINDS OFF THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE. SAT NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. ASSOCIATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTENING TAKING PLACE AT LOW LEVELS TO YIELD SOME PCPN LATER IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NW FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS COULD BE A MIX OF SNOW/FZRA/RA. ONLY SCHC POPS WILL BE UTILIZED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER ANY PCPN WILL REACH THE SFC. LOW PCPN CHC WILL SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA SUN AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS E. WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN PTYPE CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO AT LEAST THE 40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA (SOME LWR 50S ALONG WI BORDER). SUN NIGHT/MON...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SRN END OF THE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA. SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN LIFT NE SUN NIGHT/MON IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA WHICH FORCES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHARPLY SSE THRU THE WRN PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE WRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BE DISPLACED TOO FAR W OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TO PHASE WITH IT AND FORCE IT FAR ENOUGH N TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON UPPER MI. WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROF AXIS...THERE MAY BE SOME -RA...WITH -FZRA ALSO POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS PTYPE MON NIGHT. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. NEXT SET OF SHORTWAVES TRACK ESE INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED NIGHT/THU. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN INTO THE AREA LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT`S UNCERTAIN HOW FAR S THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE UNDER THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE GFS KEEPS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PCPN WELL N OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS PCPN ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE NEEDED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY (LOWEST POPS SW AND HIGHEST POPS NE). GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE WARMING (850MB TEMPS RISE TO 4 TO 9C ECMWF OR 10 TO 13C GFS)...PTYPE WILL BE RAIN...THOUGH SOME -FZRA MAY OCCUR OVER THE E WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL JUST BLO FREEZING. WITH SFC LOW PASSING BY TO THE N...COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH POTENTIAL OF SOME -SHRA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 VLIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING HAVE GRADUALLY GAVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW IS FILLING BACK IN...DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VLIFR AGAIN TODAY AS MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL BE OF THE LIGHTER VARIETY. STILL...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE LONGEST AT SAW DUE TO THE N-NE FLOW. ALL SITES WILL SEE SOME BLSN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO VFR AS THE SNOW ENDS RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 NNW GALES OF 35-40KTS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE OVER NE LAKE HURON WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC ON SATURDAY WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. A LOW ACROSS THE N PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...WHILE MERGING WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH TO MOVE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON TUESDAY AND FAR E CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A RIDGE SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE NEARING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEARING 30KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-013-014-084. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ012. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ251-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ246>250-265-266. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ240>242-263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JLA SHORT TERM...TITUS LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...MRD MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 SNOW CONTINUES HEAVY OVER THE WEST TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS STORM THUS FAR. SNOW AMOUNTS SO FAR OVER THE WEST OF AT LEAST 10 INCHES IN MANY AREAS. PTYPE ISSUES AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL HAS KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER CNTRL CWA LESS THAN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME. BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT CNTRL CWA INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. JUST RECEIVED REPORT FROM SPOTTER NEAR NORWAY OF OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE HOUR WITH THIS SNOW AS IT MOVED THROUGH. BASED ON NUMEROUS REPORTS RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...THANKS TO EVERYONE FOR THOSE...WE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON PTYPE. TURNS OUT THE RUC13 HAS DECENT HANDLE AS WELL...SHOWING THE WARM LAYER AT 750MB COLLAPSING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WHICH IS WHAT ON THE GROUND REPORTS AND 88D MQT DUAL POL CC DATA INDICATE. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG WI BORDER AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN. CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA...EXPECT TOTALS INTO THIS EVENING STILL IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE. APPEARS THE MOST SNOW FROM HERE ON OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR OVER THE NCNTRL CWA...BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES. WOULD IMAGINE UPSLOPE AREAS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL STILL SEE TOTALS OVER A FOOT LOCALLY. NO CHANGES TO HAZARDS FOR NOW. TWEAKED WORDING TO DOWNPLAY ICE/SLEET AND HIT UP THE SNOW MORE. ALSO UPDATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN GRIDS AND WSW STATEMENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 KEPT SPIRIT OF PREVIOUS FORECAST UNCHANGED AS ONGOING WINTER STORM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE LESS THAN RUNS FROM 12 HOURS AGO...SO LOWERED QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY AS HEAVY PRECIP AND SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY IN AREAS EXPECTED SNOW. THE ONLY AREA NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MOSTLY SNOW IS OVER THE ERN U.P. AND AREAS SE OF A LINE FROM GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS AS ELEVATED WARM NOSE MOVES INTO THESE AREAS. ON THE N/NW FRINGES OF THE WARM NOSE...LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR PRIMARILY SLEET THIS MORNING WHILE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY THE PRECIP WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. AFTER SUNRISE TODAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO RAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. BY 18Z TODAY...COLDER AIR MOVES IN THAT WILL TURN LIQUID PRECIP TO SNOW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH STILL EXPECTED OVER SRN DELTA AND SRN MENOMINEE COUNTIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /INCLUDING WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN SO FAR SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-18 INCHES IN THE ALL SNOW AREA NW OF A LINE FROM GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS...WITH THE HIGHEST OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVES TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z SAT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE TROFS IN THE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TENDENCY FOR RIDGING OVER WRN NAMERICA OR ALONG THE W COAST AND TROFFING OVER ERN NAMERICA. RESULT WILL BE FLUCTUATION OF TEMPS BTWN ABOVE AND BLO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO. AFTER THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENTS DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA MOVES E AND THEN LIFTS NE TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. COMPARED TO TODAY...THE WEATHER SAT WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE E EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTN...BUT OTHERWISE...A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE BRIGHT SUNSHINE ON THE FRESH SNOW COVER. WITH THE EVER INCREASING MID DAY SUN ANGLE NOW THAT WE ARE INTO EARLY APR...THE FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RESPOND NICELY. OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S. IT WILL BE COOLEST (LWR 30S) OVER THE E NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER NW WINDS OFF THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE. SAT NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. ASSOCIATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTENING TAKING PLACE AT LOW LEVELS TO YIELD SOME PCPN LATER IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NW FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS COULD BE A MIX OF SNOW/FZRA/RA. ONLY SCHC POPS WILL BE UTILIZED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER ANY PCPN WILL REACH THE SFC. LOW PCPN CHC WILL SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA SUN AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS E. WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN PTYPE CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO AT LEAST THE 40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA (SOME LWR 50S ALONG WI BORDER). SUN NIGHT/MON...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SRN END OF THE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA. SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN LIFT NE SUN NIGHT/MON IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA WHICH FORCES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHARPLY SSE THRU THE WRN PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE WRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BE DISPLACED TOO FAR W OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TO PHASE WITH IT AND FORCE IT FAR ENOUGH N TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON UPPER MI. WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROF AXIS...THERE MAY BE SOME -RA...WITH -FZRA ALSO POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS PTYPE MON NIGHT. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. NEXT SET OF SHORTWAVES TRACK ESE INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED NIGHT/THU. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN INTO THE AREA LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT`S UNCERTAIN HOW FAR S THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE UNDER THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE GFS KEEPS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PCPN WELL N OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS PCPN ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE NEEDED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY (LOWEST POPS SW AND HIGHEST POPS NE). GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE WARMING (850MB TEMPS RISE TO 4 TO 9C ECMWF OR 10 TO 13C GFS)...PTYPE WILL BE RAIN...THOUGH SOME -FZRA MAY OCCUR OVER THE E WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL JUST BLO FREEZING. WITH SFC LOW PASSING BY TO THE N...COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH POTENTIAL OF SOME -SHRA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 VLIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING HAVE GRADUALLY GAVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW IS FILLING BACK IN...DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VLIFR AGAIN TODAY AS MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL BE OF THE LIGHTER VARIETY. STILL...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE LONGEST AT SAW DUE TO THE N-NE FLOW. ALL SITES WILL SEE SOME BLSN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO VFR AS THE SNOW ENDS RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER N MO WILL MOVE TO S LAKE MI BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...ACROSS N LOWER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NE TO N GALES OF 35-40KTS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY TO EXPAND OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE N AND NNW. WINDS FROM MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30KTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW ACROSS S HUDSON BAY WILL ALLOW A BRIEF TROUGH TO EXTEND OVER FAR N LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR KY MONDAY MORNING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO FILL SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-013-014-084. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ012. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ251-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ246>250-265-266. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ240>242-263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JLA SHORT TERM...TITUS LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...MRD MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
146 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .AVIATION... //DISCUSSION... AREA OF RAINFALL FROM PTK NORTH AS OF 17Z PUSHING NORTH HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO RISE IN ITS WAKE. STILL...PERIODIC REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE REMAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND INCREASING SW WINDS SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WINDS. FROM UPSTREAM OBS...EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS TO LAG FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT BY 1-2 HOURS. TAFS SHOW A STEADY RAMP-UP IN GUSTS FROM 18-20Z FROM PTK SOUTH...19-21Z FOR FNT AND MBS. CEILINGS WILL ALSO RISE TO MVFR DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS GRADUALLY ENDING. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR DTW...LIGHT SSW WINDS AT 18Z WILL RAMP UP THROUGH 20Z WHILE VEERING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION. GUSTS NEAR 40KT ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20Z-01Z...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE FROM 01-08Z. THE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FOR AIRCRAFT LANDING TOWARD SSW. VISIBILITIES MAY FLUCTUATE PRIOR TO 20Z BUT UNDERGO A RISING TREND. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY 20Z. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 200 FT AND VSBY BELOW 1/2 SM PRIOR TO 20Z. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5 KFT. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM 250-260 DEGREES AFTER 20Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1121 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 UPDATE... COMPLEX FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ENTERS LOWER MI. THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOW WITH A SECONDARY CENTER LOCATED TO THE SE HAS KEPT THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS LED TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG LINGERING LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HOLDING AT OR BELOW 40 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS KEPT OUT OF THE AREA...ONSET OF PRECIP DELAYED OVER SE MI AS THE SECONDARY LOW AND FRONT RAMPED UP OVER CENTRAL OHIO...AND CONCERNS ABOUT THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE AS LACK OF MIXING WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT TO TAP INTO THE ELEVATED WINDS ALOFT LEAVING US WITH MORE OF A PURE GRADIENT FLOW VS DOWNWARD MIXING PLUS GRADIENT FLOW. WILL GIVE THE WINDS A CHANCE YET AS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL ENTER THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SECONDARY LOW PIVOTS UP AND AROUND THE MAIN PRESSURE CENTER. IN ADDITION...GRADIENT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH. LOWERED POPS FOR EXTREME SE MI AS PRECIP SHIELD STRUGGLES TO FILL IN COMPLETELY. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATE START WITH WAA AND EXCESSIVE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PREVENTING THE SUN FROM ADDING MUCH TO THE CAUSE. CURRENT FOG LAYER WILL GET SCOURED OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS PRECIP INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND COLD FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT ALL IS QUIET TO BEGIN THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SETTLED BETWEEN AN ACTIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND ONGOING AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF INTEREST IS PRESENTLY POSITIONED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN BARREN OF ANY ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES SHOW SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO FORT WAYNE AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING AS ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE. BUT SO FAR THE 00Z NWP HAVE GIVEN FAR TOO MUCH RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER GRASP ON THE SITUATION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE WITH THE LATTER GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNINSPIRING APPEARANCE ON RADAR. THUS, TRIMMED POPS BACK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR LOW COVERAGE THROUGH 15Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY SEE A GLANCING BLOW AS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD. EXPANSION OF COVERAGE IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY OVER MISSOURI WRAP INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING WILL BE AT THEIR GREATEST. HOWEVER, ALL LOCATIONS CAN STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF 1.2+" PWATS. SUPERPOSITION OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT AROUND 18Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL EXIST, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. GOOD SIGNATURE IN THE HIGH RES MODELS OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, INDICATIVE OF AN AGGRESSIVE MASS ADJUSTMENT TAKING PLACE. WHEN CONSIDERED ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND TIMING DURING PEAK HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MAXIMIZED MIXING DEPTHS, ADVISORY OR NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS CERTAINLY SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL FROPA. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE APPRECIABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. LIKEWISE, LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE A BIT OF A DELAY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER WINDS FOR THIS REASON. COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A DEEP LAYER OF STRONG WINDS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 KTS BEING TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BY STRONG CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT FROM 275-285K. ALL SURFACES WITHIN THIS 10K DEEP LAYER INTERSECT THE GROUND AND SHOW AN APPRECIABLE ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND COMPONENT TO HELP MAXIMIZE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE STRONG WIND FIELD. COMBINED WITH NAM PROGS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER IN SPITE OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP MIXING, A WIND ADVISORY SEEMS LIKE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION FOR AT LEAST THE 21-03Z PERIOD. SAID ADVISORY WAS THEREFORE ISSUED BEGINNING WITH THE INITIAL FROPA AND LASTING UNTIL COLD ADVECTION EASES AROUND MIDNIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEPART INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC ADVANCING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TRAPPED UNDER A DEEP INVERSION SHOULD EQUATE TO AMPLE CLOUD COVER SAT MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TREND SAT AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS INTO THE 40S DESPITE A RATHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY. A LINGERING NW GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER CAUSE RATHER BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT MINS DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF SE MI. SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS SHOWN BY THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE...FEATURING A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WRN US AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTL AND ERN US. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION SUNDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE ACTUALLY REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OVERSPREADS SE MI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY NIGHT. SEEING AS THIS SYSTEM WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GULF...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE DEFORMATION REGION AND THUS HIGH POPS ARE JUSTIFIED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL HOLD WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN PRECIP TYPE AS ALL RAIN. THE GFS DEEPENS THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN AND THUS HOLDS THE DEFORMATION FORCING OVER SE MI RIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. THIS SOLUTIONS DOES OFFER THE POSSIBILITY THAT COOLING DUE TO MELTING FROM PROLONGED PRECIP MAY CHANCE SOME LOCALS OVER TO SNOW LATE MON NIGHT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS...SUPPORTING ALL RAIN AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN US LONG WAVE RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL HOWEVER OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ICY WATERS OF THE LAKES WILL INHIBIT THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE LAKE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THUNDER BAY WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THUS MAKE SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 18Z. WINDS OVER LAKE HURON WILL THEN DECREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH TRACKS OVERHEAD. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN LEAD TO A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THESE STRONGER WINDS...EXPECTED TO EXCEED GALE FORCE AT TIMES...WILL FIRST REACH WRN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER LAKE HURON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST GALES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON INTO SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE REGION. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WIND ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060- MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082- MIZ083...UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. LAKE HURON... GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY. GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY. GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR... GALE WARNING...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE... GALE WARNING...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY. && $$ AVIATION.....DRK UPDATE.......DT SHORT TERM...JVC LONG TERM....SC MARINE.......SC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1121 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... COMPLEX FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ENTERS LOWER MI. THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOW WITH A SECONDARY CENTER LOCATED TO THE SE HAS KEPT THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS LED TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG LINGERING LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HOLDING AT OR BELOW 40 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS KEPT OUT OF THE AREA...ONSET OF PRECIP DELAYED OVER SE MI AS THE SECONDARY LOW AND FRONT RAMPED UP OVER CENTRAL OHIO...AND CONCERNS ABOUT THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE AS LACK OF MIXING WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT TO TAP INTO THE ELEVATED WINDS ALOFT LEAVING US WITH MORE OF A PURE GRADIENT FLOW VS DOWNWARD MIXING PLUS GRADIENT FLOW. WILL GIVE THE WINDS A CHANCE YET AS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL ENTER THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SECONDARY LOW PIVOTS UP AND AROUND THE MAIN PRESSURE CENTER. IN ADDITION...GRADIENT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH. LOWERED POPS FOR EXTREME SE MI AS PRECIP SHIELD STRUGGLES TO FILL IN COMPLETELY. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATE START WITH WAA AND EXCESSIVE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PREVENTING THE SUN FROM ADDING MUCH TO THE CAUSE. CURRENT FOG LAYER WILL GET SCOURED OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS PRECIP INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND COLD FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT ALL IS QUIET TO BEGIN THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SETTLED BETWEEN AN ACTIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND ONGOING AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF INTEREST IS PRESENTLY POSITIONED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN BARREN OF ANY ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES SHOW SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO FORT WAYNE AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING AS ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE. BUT SO FAR THE 00Z NWP HAVE GIVEN FAR TOO MUCH RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER GRASP ON THE SITUATION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE WITH THE LATTER GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNINSPIRING APPEARANCE ON RADAR. THUS, TRIMMED POPS BACK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR LOW COVERAGE THROUGH 15Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY SEE A GLANCING BLOW AS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD. EXPANSION OF COVERAGE IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY OVER MISSOURI WRAP INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING WILL BE AT THEIR GREATEST. HOWEVER, ALL LOCATIONS CAN STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF 1.2+" PWATS. SUPERPOSITION OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT AROUND 18Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL EXIST, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. GOOD SIGNATURE IN THE HIGH RES MODELS OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, INDICATIVE OF AN AGGRESSIVE MASS ADJUSTMENT TAKING PLACE. WHEN CONSIDERED ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND TIMING DURING PEAK HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MAXIMIZED MIXING DEPTHS, ADVISORY OR NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS CERTAINLY SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL FROPA. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE APPRECIABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. LIKEWISE, LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE A BIT OF A DELAY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER WINDS FOR THIS REASON. COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A DEEP LAYER OF STRONG WINDS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 KTS BEING TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BY STRONG CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT FROM 275-285K. ALL SURFACES WITHIN THIS 10K DEEP LAYER INTERSECT THE GROUND AND SHOW AN APPRECIABLE ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND COMPONENT TO HELP MAXIMIZE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE STRONG WIND FIELD. COMBINED WITH NAM PROGS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER IN SPITE OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP MIXING, A WIND ADVISORY SEEMS LIKE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION FOR AT LEAST THE 21-03Z PERIOD. SAID ADVISORY WAS THEREFORE ISSUED BEGINNING WITH THE INITIAL FROPA AND LASTING UNTIL COLD ADVECTION EASES AROUND MIDNIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEPART INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC ADVANCING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TRAPPED UNDER A DEEP INVERSION SHOULD EQUATE TO AMPLE CLOUD COVER SAT MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TREND SAT AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS INTO THE 40S DESPITE A RATHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY. A LINGERING NW GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER CAUSE RATHER BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT MINS DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF SE MI. SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS SHOWN BY THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE...FEATURING A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WRN US AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTL AND ERN US. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION SUNDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE ACTUALLY REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OVERSPREADS SE MI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY NIGHT. SEEING AS THIS SYSTEM WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GULF...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE DEFORMATION REGION AND THUS HIGH POPS ARE JUSTIFIED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL HOLD WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN PRECIP TYPE AS ALL RAIN. THE GFS DEEPENS THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN AND THUS HOLDS THE DEFORMATION FORCING OVER SE MI RIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. THIS SOLUTIONS DOES OFFER THE POSSIBILITY THAT COOLING DUE TO MELTING FROM PROLONGED PRECIP MAY CHANCE SOME LOCALS OVER TO SNOW LATE MON NIGHT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS...SUPPORTING ALL RAIN AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN US LONG WAVE RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL HOWEVER OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ICY WATERS OF THE LAKES WILL INHIBIT THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE LAKE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THUNDER BAY WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THUS MAKE SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 18Z. WINDS OVER LAKE HURON WILL THEN DECREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH TRACKS OVERHEAD. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN LEAD TO A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THESE STRONGER WINDS...EXPECTED TO EXCEED GALE FORCE AT TIMES...WILL FIRST REACH WRN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER LAKE HURON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST GALES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON INTO SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1205 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 //DISCUSSION... LOWER CEILING WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS AGAINST DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. IFR CEILING WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO DTW AT PRESS TIME TO GO WITH THAT IN THE FORECAST WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF ISSUANCE TIME. THE LOWER CEILING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH FROM THERE AND VISIBILITY WILL FOLLOW DOWNWARD AS RAIN INCREASES OVER THE REGION CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT, THUNDER IS MORE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A SOLID AREA OF RAIN FILLS IN OVER SE MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AS RAIN COMBINES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL POINT TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND POST FRONT THAT WILL HAVE GUST POTENTIAL TO 40 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * HIGH CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5 KFT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS FROM 240 DEG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WIND ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060- MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082- MIZ083...FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. LAKE HURON... GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY. GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY. GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR... GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE... GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY. && $$ UPDATE.......DRK AVIATION.....BT SHORT TERM...JVC LONG TERM....SC MARINE.......SC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1101 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 SNOW CONTINUES HEAVY OVER THE WEST TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS STORM THUS FAR. SNOW AMOUNTS SO FAR OVER THE WEST OF AT LEAST 10 INCHES IN MANY AREAS. PTYPE ISSUES AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL HAS KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER CNTRL CWA LESS THAN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME. BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT CNTRL CWA INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. JUST RECEIVED REPORT FROM SPOTTER NEAR NORWAY OF OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE HOUR WITH THIS SNOW AS IT MOVED THROUGH. BASED ON NUMEROUS REPORTS RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...THANKS TO EVERYONE FOR THOSE...WE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON PTYPE. TURNS OUT THE RUC13 HAS DECENT HANDLE AS WELL...SHOWING THE WARM LAYER AT 750MB COLLAPSING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WHICH IS WHAT ON THE GROUND REPORTS AND 88D MQT DUAL POL CC DATA INDICATE. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG WI BORDER AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN. CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA...EXPECT TOTALS INTO THIS EVENING STILL IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE. APPEARS THE MOST SNOW FROM HERE ON OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR OVER THE NCNTRL CWA...BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES. WOULD IMAGINE UPSLOPE AREAS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL STILL SEE TOTALS OVER A FOOT LOCALLY. NO CHANGES TO HAZARDS FOR NOW. TWEAKED WORDING TO DOWNPLAY ICE/SLEET AND HIT UP THE SNOW MORE. ALSO UPDATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN GRIDS AND WSW STATEMENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 KEPT SPIRIT OF PREVIOUS FORECAST UNCHANGED AS ONGOING WINTER STORM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE LESS THAN RUNS FROM 12 HOURS AGO...SO LOWERED QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY AS HEAVY PRECIP AND SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY IN AREAS EXPECTED SNOW. THE ONLY AREA NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MOSTLY SNOW IS OVER THE ERN U.P. AND AREAS SE OF A LINE FROM GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS AS ELEVATED WARM NOSE MOVES INTO THESE AREAS. ON THE N/NW FRINGES OF THE WARM NOSE...LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR PRIMARILY SLEET THIS MORNING WHILE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY THE PRECIP WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. AFTER SUNRISE TODAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO RAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. BY 18Z TODAY...COLDER AIR MOVES IN THAT WILL TURN LIQUID PRECIP TO SNOW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH STILL EXPECTED OVER SRN DELTA AND SRN MENOMINEE COUNTIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /INCLUDING WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN SO FAR SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-18 INCHES IN THE ALL SNOW AREA NW OF A LINE FROM GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS...WITH THE HIGHEST OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR MOVES TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z SAT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE TROFS IN THE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A TENDENCY FOR RIDGING OVER WRN NAMERICA OR ALONG THE W COAST AND TROFFING OVER ERN NAMERICA. RESULT WILL BE FLUCTUATION OF TEMPS BTWN ABOVE AND BLO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO. AFTER THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENTS DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA MOVES E AND THEN LIFTS NE TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. COMPARED TO TODAY...THE WEATHER SAT WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE E EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTN...BUT OTHERWISE...A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE BRIGHT SUNSHINE ON THE FRESH SNOW COVER. WITH THE EVER INCREASING MID DAY SUN ANGLE NOW THAT WE ARE INTO EARLY APR...THE FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RESPOND NICELY. OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S. IT WILL BE COOLEST (LWR 30S) OVER THE E NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER NW WINDS OFF THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE. SAT NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. ASSOCIATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTENING TAKING PLACE AT LOW LEVELS TO YIELD SOME PCPN LATER IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NW FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS COULD BE A MIX OF SNOW/FZRA/RA. ONLY SCHC POPS WILL BE UTILIZED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER ANY PCPN WILL REACH THE SFC. LOW PCPN CHC WILL SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA SUN AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTS E. WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN PTYPE CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO AT LEAST THE 40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA (SOME LWR 50S ALONG WI BORDER). SUN NIGHT/MON...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SRN END OF THE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA. SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN LIFT NE SUN NIGHT/MON IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA WHICH FORCES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHARPLY SSE THRU THE WRN PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE WRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BE DISPLACED TOO FAR W OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TO PHASE WITH IT AND FORCE IT FAR ENOUGH N TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON UPPER MI. WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROF AXIS...THERE MAY BE SOME -RA...WITH -FZRA ALSO POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS PTYPE MON NIGHT. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. NEXT SET OF SHORTWAVES TRACK ESE INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED NIGHT/THU. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN INTO THE AREA LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT`S UNCERTAIN HOW FAR S THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE UNDER THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE GFS KEEPS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PCPN WELL N OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS PCPN ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MI. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE NEEDED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY (LOWEST POPS SW AND HIGHEST POPS NE). GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE WARMING (850MB TEMPS RISE TO 4 TO 9C ECMWF OR 10 TO 13C GFS)...PTYPE WILL BE RAIN...THOUGH SOME -FZRA MAY OCCUR OVER THE E WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL JUST BLO FREEZING. WITH SFC LOW PASSING BY TO THE N...COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH POTENTIAL OF SOME -SHRA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 EXPECT SOME VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS DUE TO NATURE OF PRECIPITATION COMING IN WAVES TODAY...BUT OVERALL POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. DRY AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BE IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER N MO WILL MOVE TO S LAKE MI BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...ACROSS N LOWER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT ALONG THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NE TO N GALES OF 35-40KTS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY TO EXPAND OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE N AND NNW. WINDS FROM MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30KTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW ACROSS S HUDSON BAY WILL ALLOW A BRIEF TROUGH TO EXTEND OVER FAR N LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR KY MONDAY MORNING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO FILL SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-013-014-084. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ012. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ251-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ246>250-265-266. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ240>242-263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JLA SHORT TERM...TITUS LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...TITUS MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
655 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .AVIATION... //DISCUSSION... IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT SPARSE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SHOWERS AT ALL TAF SITES. THE GREATEST PERSISTENCE AND DURATION ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF KPTK WHERE MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE GREATEST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN WORK THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND CONCERNS WILL LIKEWISE TRANSITION FROM WIND FROM WIND SHEAR TO STRONG CROSS WINDS, ESPECIALLY 21Z-03Z WHEN GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 KTS. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO FALL BELOW 30 KNOTS. FOR DTW...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE MORNING. FRONTAL PASSAGE ESTIMATED TO OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD AROUND 18Z WILL FORCE WIND TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION TOWARD GUSTY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS BETWEEN 20Z-01Z. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5 KFT. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM 250-260 DEGREES. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT ALL IS QUIET TO BEGIN THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SETTLED BETWEEN AN ACTIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND ONGOING AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF INTEREST IS PRESENTLY POSITIONED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN BARREN OF ANY ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES SHOW SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO FORT WAYNE AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING AS ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE. BUT SO FAR THE 00Z NWP HAVE GIVEN FAR TOO MUCH RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER GRASP ON THE SITUATION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE WITH THE LATTER GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNINSPIRING APPEARANCE ON RADAR. THUS, TRIMMED POPS BACK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR LOW COVERAGE THROUGH 15Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY SEE A GLANCING BLOW AS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD. EXPANSION OF COVERAGE IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY OVER MISSOURI WRAP INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING WILL BE AT THEIR GREATEST. HOWEVER, ALL LOCATIONS CAN STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF 1.2+" PWATS. SUPERPOSITION OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT AROUND 18Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL EXIST, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. GOOD SIGNATURE IN THE HIGH RES MODELS OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, INDICATIVE OF AN AGGRESSIVE MASS ADJUSTMENT TAKING PLACE. WHEN CONSIDERED ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND TIMING DURING PEAK HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MAXIMIZED MIXING DEPTHS, ADVISORY OR NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS CERTAINLY SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL FROPA. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE APPRECIABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. LIKEWISE, LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE A BIT OF A DELAY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER WINDS FOR THIS REASON. COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A DEEP LAYER OF STRONG WINDS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 KTS BEING TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BY STRONG CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT FROM 275-285K. ALL SURFACES WITHIN THIS 10K DEEP LAYER INTERSECT THE GROUND AND SHOW AN APPRECIABLE ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND COMPONENT TO HELP MAXIMIZE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE STRONG WIND FIELD. COMBINED WITH NAM PROGS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER IN SPITE OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP MIXING, A WIND ADVISORY SEEMS LIKE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION FOR AT LEAST THE 21-03Z PERIOD. SAID ADVISORY WAS THEREFORE ISSUED BEGINNING WITH THE INITIAL FROPA AND LASTING UNTIL COLD ADVECTION EASES AROUND MIDNIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEPART INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC ADVANCING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TRAPPED UNDER A DEEP INVERSION SHOULD EQUATE TO AMPLE CLOUD COVER SAT MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TREND SAT AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS INTO THE 40S DESPITE A RATHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY. A LINGERING NW GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER CAUSE RATHER BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT MINS DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF SE MI. SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS SHOWN BY THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE...FEATURING A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WRN US AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTL AND ERN US. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION SUNDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE ACTUALLY REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OVERSPREADS SE MI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY NIGHT. SEEING AS THIS SYSTEM WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GULF...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE DEFORMATION REGION AND THUS HIGH POPS ARE JUSTIFIED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL HOLD WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN PRECIP TYPE AS ALL RAIN. THE GFS DEEPENS THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN AND THUS HOLDS THE DEFORMATION FORCING OVER SE MI RIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. THIS SOLUTIONS DOES OFFER THE POSSIBILITY THAT COOLING DUE TO MELTING FROM PROLONGED PRECIP MAY CHANCE SOME LOCALS OVER TO SNOW LATE MON NIGHT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS...SUPPORTING ALL RAIN AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN US LONG WAVE RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL HOWEVER OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ICY WATERS OF THE LAKES WILL INHIBIT THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE LAKE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THUNDER BAY WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THUS MAKE SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 18Z. WINDS OVER LAKE HURON WILL THEN DECREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH TRACKS OVERHEAD. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN LEAD TO A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THESE STRONGER WINDS...EXPECTED TO EXCEED GALE FORCE AT TIMES...WILL FIRST REACH WRN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER LAKE HURON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST GALES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON INTO SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE REGION. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WIND ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060- MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082- MIZ083...FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. LAKE HURON... GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY. GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY. GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR... GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE... GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY. && $$ AVIATION.....JVC SHORT TERM...JVC LONG TERM....SC MARINE.......SC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT ALL IS QUIET TO BEGIN THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SETTLED BETWEEN AN ACTIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND ONGOING AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF INTEREST IS PRESENTLY POSITIONED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN BARREN OF ANY ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES SHOW SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO FORT WAYNE AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING AS ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE. BUT SO FAR THE 00Z NWP HAVE GIVEN FAR TOO MUCH RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER GRASP ON THE SITUATION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE WITH THE LATTER GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNINSPIRING APPEARANCE ON RADAR. THUS, TRIMMED POPS BACK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR LOW COVERAGE THROUGH 15Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY SEE A GLANCING BLOW AS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD. EXPANSION OF COVERAGE IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY OVER MISSOURI WRAP INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING WILL BE AT THEIR GREATEST. HOWEVER, ALL LOCATIONS CAN STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF 1.2+" PWATS. SUPERPOSITION OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT AROUND 18Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL EXIST, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. GOOD SIGNATURE IN THE HIGH RES MODELS OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, INDICATIVE OF AN AGGRESSIVE MASS ADJUSTMENT TAKING PLACE. WHEN CONSIDERED ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND TIMING DURING PEAK HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MAXIMIZED MIXING DEPTHS, ADVISORY OR NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS CERTAINLY SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL FROPA. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE APPRECIABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. LIKEWISE, LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE A BIT OF A DELAY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER WINDS FOR THIS REASON. COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A DEEP LAYER OF STRONG WINDS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 KTS BEING TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BY STRONG CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT FROM 275-285K. ALL SURFACES WITHIN THIS 10K DEEP LAYER INTERSECT THE GROUND AND SHOW AN APPRECIABLE ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND COMPONENT TO HELP MAXIMIZE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE STRONG WIND FIELD. COMBINED WITH NAM PROGS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER IN SPITE OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP MIXING, A WIND ADVISORY SEEMS LIKE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION FOR AT LEAST THE 21-03Z PERIOD. SAID ADVISORY WAS THEREFORE ISSUED BEGINNING WITH THE INITIAL FROPA AND LASTING UNTIL COLD ADVECTION EASES AROUND MIDNIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE. && .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEPART INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC ADVANCING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TRAPPED UNDER A DEEP INVERSION SHOULD EQUATE TO AMPLE CLOUD COVER SAT MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TREND SAT AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS INTO THE 40S DESPITE A RATHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY. A LINGERING NW GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER CAUSE RATHER BRISK NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT MINS DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF SE MI. SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS SHOWN BY THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE...FEATURING A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WRN US AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTL AND ERN US. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION SUNDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE ACTUALLY REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OVERSPREADS SE MI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY NIGHT. SEEING AS THIS SYSTEM WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GULF...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE DEFORMATION REGION AND THUS HIGH POPS ARE JUSTIFIED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL HOLD WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN PRECIP TYPE AS ALL RAIN. THE GFS DEEPENS THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN AND THUS HOLDS THE DEFORMATION FORCING OVER SE MI RIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. THIS SOLUTIONS DOES OFFER THE POSSIBILITY THAT COOLING DUE TO MELTING FROM PROLONGED PRECIP MAY CHANCE SOME LOCALS OVER TO SNOW LATE MON NIGHT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS...SUPPORTING ALL RAIN AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN US LONG WAVE RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL HOWEVER OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ICY WATERS OF THE LAKES WILL INHIBIT THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE LAKE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THUNDER BAY WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THUS MAKE SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 18Z. WINDS OVER LAKE HURON WILL THEN DECREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH TRACKS OVERHEAD. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN LEAD TO A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THESE STRONGER WINDS...EXPECTED TO EXCEED GALE FORCE AT TIMES...WILL FIRST REACH WRN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER LAKE HURON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST GALES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON INTO SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1205 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 //DISCUSSION... LOWER CEILING WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS AGAINST DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. IFR CEILING WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO DTW AT PRESS TIME TO GO WITH THAT IN THE FORECAST WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF ISSUANCE TIME. THE LOWER CEILING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH FROM THERE AND VISIBILITY WILL FOLLOW DOWNWARD AS RAIN INCREASES OVER THE REGION CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT, THUNDER IS MORE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A SOLID AREA OF RAIN FILLS IN OVER SE MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AS RAIN COMBINES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL POINT TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND POST FRONT THAT WILL HAVE GUST POTENTIAL TO 40 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * HIGH CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5 KFT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS FROM 240 DEG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WIND ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060- MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082- MIZ083...FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. LAKE HURON... GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY. GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY. GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR... GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE... GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...JVC LONG TERM....SC MARINE.......SC AVIATION.....BT YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
937 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 THE NORTHLAND WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WAA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR WAS SHOWING TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE FIRST STRETCHED FROM THE MOOSE LAKE AREA...SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAYWARD. THIS WAS LIGHT RAIN. ANOTHER AREA HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM BIG FORK EAST TO COOK/ORR TO ELY. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE RAIN INITIALLY. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EITHER A WARM LAYER ENOUGH TO MELT ANY ICE OR A COLUMN NOT SATURATED ENOUGH FOR MUCH ICE. THE RAP MAX T OVER THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET SHOWS MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 2C. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN WHETHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FALLS. WE DID EXPAND THE AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT TO INCLUDE MORE OF FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. KPBH WAS 34F OVER 25F AT 02Z. WE DO EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE RATHER LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF H85 WEAK SHORT WAVE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE ONSHORE WINDS KEPT READINGS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 30S. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATE QUICKLY THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO NW MINNESOTA. THIS WAVE IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT THERE IS SUFFICIENT WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE BROAD BRUSH SMALL POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 900 PM. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS FOG FOR ALL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND CALM WINDS. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT A BATCH OF -SHRA OR -DZ OVERNIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. LOCATIONS IN THE MN ARROWHEAD MAY SEE GREATER QPF...AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...AS WELL AS A SMALL THREAT FOR VERY LIGHT -FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO ICE ACCUM IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY -FZDZ...WITH COOLER READINGS ARRIVING IN THE DRIER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THE LOW POPS AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER OVER THE NRN WISCONSIN AND SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ZONES INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WE ARE DEFINITELY ENTERING INTO THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE WE START TO SEE A LOT OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND PERHAPS BEYOND IN SOME OF THE TIME PERIODS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF LOWS CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. WE WILL ALSO WRESTLE WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT SMALL QPF BULLSEYES RANDOMLY ACROSS THE REGION. WILL GENERALLY KEEP MOST PERIODS DRY FOR NOW. COULD SEE HAVING TO ADD SOME SMALL POPS AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT...BUT FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS AND AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS TO HIT ANY PARTICULAR PRECIPITATION AREAS IN THE GRIDS. HAVE ADDED POPS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WE MAY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO BE ABLE TO HOLD MORE MOISTURE FROM THE SPRING SNOWMELT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK SHOULD BE LARGELY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG...WE COULD SEE SOME READINGS A BIT HIGHER THAN THAT. IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS PEGGING A HIGH TEMP AROUND 70 FOR THE KBRD AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THEY WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD BE A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW POSSIBLY TOWARD THE NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD THEN COOL A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEAST MANITOBA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. BROAD WAA WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ANOTHER WAVE WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WERE JUST MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND WE EXPECT SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE ARROWHEAD...AND PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WE LIMITED THE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL MAKE SHORTER TERM UPDATES BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS. A BIGGER CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL CEILINGS AND VSBYS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE REGARDING THE EXTENT OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING. THE NAM HAS BEEN MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ALREADY IS TOO HIGH ON ITS LOW LEVEL RH. THE HRRR/RAP DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CEILINGS UNTIL MUCH LATER TONIGHT AND ALSO HAVE LOWER COVERAGE. WE DELAYED THE IFR/LIFT CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE PERIOD. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONS AND ADJUST AS THINGS BECOME CLEARER. THE THREAT FOR LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS MAY BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WINDS INCREASES WITH AN ILL DEFINED PRESSURE GRADIENT. A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL OCCUR AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 32 45 30 47 / 30 20 10 20 INL 28 49 29 46 / 30 10 10 20 BRD 30 50 32 51 / 20 10 10 20 HYR 32 49 30 49 / 30 20 10 20 ASX 32 46 29 46 / 30 20 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...GRANING LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
346 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 THE MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT BROUGHT AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS A FOOT AND A HALF TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. A GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BAND OF SNOW HAD SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD AND PINE COUNTY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE MECHANISM RESPONSIBLE APPEARS TO BE SHUTTING OFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REMOVE MORE COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING. WILL HANG ON TO THE WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF NW WI...SPECIFICALLY BAYFIELD AND SAWYER COUNTY EASTWARD. HEAVY SNOW RECENTLY AT THE IRONWOOD STATION...WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT ASHLAND. THINK THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO MORE IN SPOTS FOR THE EVENING...WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE HRRR ACTUALLY CUTS THINGS OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH THIS EVENING SO THAT WOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS IF THINGS SHUT OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL ALSO HANG ON TO SOME FLURRIES FURTHER WESTWARD AS SOME DIURNAL CLOUD COVER HAD DEVELOPED AND BROUGHT SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THE SNOW COMES TO AN END TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTH. THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF MELTING ON SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S. ONLY EXCEPTION IN TERMS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WHERE SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 OVERALL PATTERN THIS PERIOD FEATURES A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR FRNTL BDRY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS IT INITIALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO CWA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY SO LOW POPS REMAIN IN FCST THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THE OVERALL FORCING IS QUITE WEAK AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A DRY SPELL WILL UNFOLD TUES/WED BEFORE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM MOVES ACROS THE REGION WED NIGHT/THUR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTN WITH VFR AT MN SITES. KHYR WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING. AREA OF LOW STRATUS WEST OF CWA IS FCST TO DISSIPATE IN NEXT 6 HRS HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR KBRD FOR POTENTIAL AMENDMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 16 39 28 44 / 10 0 20 10 INL 14 45 26 46 / 0 0 20 10 BRD 16 45 29 48 / 0 0 10 20 HYR 12 42 29 47 / 20 0 20 20 ASX 14 40 28 44 / 60 0 20 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ008-009. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR WIZ002>004. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121- 146>148. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAP LONG TERM...CANNON AVIATION...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 SFC LOW AT 3 AM WAS CENTERED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...ENDING UP OVER NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW TRAILS THE SFC LOW BACK ACROSS CENTRAL IA. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SAW A STRONG DRY SLOT AND PV ANOMALY WORK UP INTO SRN MN OVER TO WRN WI. THIS PV FEATURE HELPED ENHANCE FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER...WHICH RESULTED IN AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP LAST NIGHT FROM ABOUT SPRINGFIELD...THROUGH CENTRAL MCLEOD COUNTY...UP THE HENNEPIN/WRIGHT COUNTY LINE AND ON UP TOWARD PRINCETON. WE GOT A REPORT OF 10 INCHES ALREADY FROM HUTCHINSON AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOMEONE IN THIS BAND PICKED UP A FOOT OVERNIGHT. OVERLAYING RAP H7-H6 FGEN ON TO RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...YOU COULD SEE THIS BAND START TO WEAKEN AROUND 8Z AS THE FGEN STARTED TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...AS THIS AREA OF FGEN WAS WEAKENING...THE RAP HAS BEEN SHOWING ANOTHER BAND OF ENHANCED FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER DEVELOPING FROM ALBERT LEA UP TOWARD RICE LAKE. SINCE 3 AM...THIS SECOND ZONE OF FGEN HAS SHOWN RADAR RETURNS/SNOW RAPIDLY BLOSSOM AND TRIED TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THE RAP/HRRR WITH A SECONDARY BAND OF ENHANCED QPF SNOW COMING OUT OF SE MN AND UP ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER. FOR THIS NEWER BAND OF SNOW...WITH THE SFC LOW NOW MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE IT WILL NOT LINGER AS LONG AS THE MAIN BAND OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD STILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IT. MAIN CHANGE IN THE GRIDS WITH POPS WAS TO SPEED UP THEIR DEPARTURE OUT OF THE AREA...BRINGING IT IN LINE WITH THE HRRR/RAP. EXPECT BACK EDGE OF SNOW TO CLEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AND WILL EXIT THE ERN CWA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. FOR THE EXISTING WINTER HEADLINES...CHANGED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED ENDING OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH AREAS WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES NOW EXPIRING AT 15Z...COUNTIES AROUND THE METRO ENDING AT 18Z AND WRN WI STILL ENDING AT 00Z. IN ALL CASES...THIS IS PROBABLY STILL A LITTLE LONGER THAN NECESSARY...BUT WE CAN JUST CANCEL COUNTIES EARLY AS SNOW ENDS AS WE HAVE BEEN DOING ALL NIGHT. THESE NEW END TIMES JUST GET THE END TIMES FOR THE HEADLINES CLOSER TO WHAT REALITY WILL LIKELY BE. OTHER MINOR CHANGE MADE IN THE GRIDS WAS TO NUDGE WINDS SPEEDS/GUSTS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS OUR GRIDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT STRONG ALL NIGHT. JUST BROUGHT SPEEDS MORE IN LINE WITH BIAS CORRECTED SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS. STILL SHOULD GET SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH IN SC/SE MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PULLS IN SRN WI. FORTUNATELY...WET/HEAVY OF NATURE OF THE SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL HELP HOLD IT TO THE GROUND...SO CONTINUED TO NOT MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS. PERHAPS BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS WITH CLOUD COVER TRENDS. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING THINGS OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A QUICK LOOK AT SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID BANK OF STRATUS IN PLACE ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE AXIS OF THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. SO FOR GRIDS...WENT CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH CLEARING OF SKIES TODAY...DELAYING THAT UNTIL THE SFC RIDGE STARTS MOVING INTO WRN MN AND KICKING OUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE CLEARING STARTS...IT SHOULD MOVE PRETTY QUICK TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND...CONTINUED TO GO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CWA FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WERE KEPT TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN EXPANDED CWA WIDE FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG EVENT WITH ONLY MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPREADING INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN PASSING TO THE EAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH LOWS/HIGHS ACTUALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. WEDNESDAY WAS A DAY OF INTEREST WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 12 DEG C ACROSS WESTERN MN. MIX DOWN OF THE GFS FROM 900MB INDICATED HIGHS NEAR 70 FOR THE CANBY AND MADISON AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES YIELDED AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE MID/LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES OVER THE CR EXTEND GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...TIME OVERNIGHT WAS SPENT HELPING THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER WITH THE ONGOING SNOW EVENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 TWO PROBLEMS AT HAND THIS TAF PERIOD ARE TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF SNOW OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WHEN DO CIGS GO VFR. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE WRN TWIN CITIES METRO AND WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN WI AROUND 15Z. TRENDED TIMING FOR END OF SNOW TOWARD THE HRRR. VSBYS WITH THIS LAST BAND HAVE BEEN MAINLY 1-2SM...SO NOT EXPECTING MANY MORE 1/2SM TYPE SNOWS. CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE TRICKY AS STRATUS EXTENDS BACK INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS...BUT THE HRRR IS DRIVING A CLEARING DOWN BEHIND THE SNOW LATER TODAY. FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE GFSLAMP WITH MVFR CIGS HANGING BACK A WHILE...BUT AS I WRITE THIS...CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT UP TOWARD PARK RAPIDS AND BEMIDJI...SO THE HRRR COULD VERY WELL BE ON TO SOMETHING. FOR TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE SKIES AND GIVE US LGT AND VRB WINDS...THOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD THE SSW WEST OVER WRN MN LATE TONIGHT. KMSP...WILL HAVE ONE MORE IFR VIS BAND OF SNOW WORK THROUGH THE AIRPORT THIS MORNING. BASED ON ITS CURRENT SPEED...WILL BE EAST OF MSP BETWEEN 1300 AND 1330Z. AFTER THAT...SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF AND SHOULD BE DOWN BY NOON. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR SAYING IT WILL CLEAR OUT TEMPORARILY AROUND 19Z BEFORE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN CLOSER TO 00Z. FOR NOW...STUCK WITH THE GFSLAMP STORY OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING THROUGH 00Z. NO ISSUES EXPECTED WITH REST OF TAF. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-15KTS. SUN...CHC MVFR/-RASN LATE. WINDS SW 5-10KTS. MON...CHC MVFR/-RA. WINDS N 10KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ052- 053-060>063-068>070-076-077. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ049. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ044-045- 050-051-058-059-065>067-073>075-082-083-091. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ084- 085-092-093. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ078. WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ014>016- 023>025-027. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ026- 028. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
423 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 SFC LOW AT 3 AM WAS CENTERED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...ENDING UP OVER NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW TRAILS THE SFC LOW BACK ACROSS CENTRAL IA. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...SAW A STRONG DRY SLOT AND PV ANOMALY WORK UP INTO SRN MN OVER TO WRN WI. THIS PV FEATURE HELPED ENHANCE FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER...WHICH RESULTED IN AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP LAST NIGHT FROM ABOUT SPRINGFIELD...THROUGH CENTRAL MCLEOD COUNTY...UP THE HENNEPIN/WRIGHT COUNTY LINE AND ON UP TOWARD PRINCETON. WE GOT A REPORT OF 10 INCHES ALREADY FROM HUTCHINSON AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOMEONE IN THIS BAND PICKED UP A FOOT OVERNIGHT. OVERLAYING RAP H7-H6 FGEN ON TO RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...YOU COULD SEE THIS BAND START TO WEAKEN AROUND 8Z AS THE FGEN STARTED TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...AS THIS AREA OF FGEN WAS WEAKENING...THE RAP HAS BEEN SHOWING ANOTHER BAND OF ENHANCED FGEN IN THE H7-H6 LAYER DEVELOPING FROM ALBERT LEA UP TOWARD RICE LAKE. SINCE 3 AM...THIS SECOND ZONE OF FGEN HAS SHOWN RADAR RETURNS/SNOW RAPIDLY BLOSSOM AND TRIED TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THE RAP/HRRR WITH A SECONDARY BAND OF ENHANCED QPF SNOW COMING OUT OF SE MN AND UP ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER. FOR THIS NEWER BAND OF SNOW...WITH THE SFC LOW NOW MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE IT WILL NOT LINGER AS LONG AS THE MAIN BAND OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD STILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IT. MAIN CHANGE IN THE GRIDS WITH POPS WAS TO SPEED UP THEIR DEPARTURE OUT OF THE AREA...BRINGING IT IN LINE WITH THE HRRR/RAP. EXPECT BACK EDGE OF SNOW TO CLEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AND WILL EXIT THE ERN CWA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. FOR THE EXISTING WINTER HEADLINES...CHANGED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED ENDING OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH AREAS WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES NOW EXPIRING AT 15Z...COUNTIES AROUND THE METRO ENDING AT 18Z AND WRN WI STILL ENDING AT 00Z. IN ALL CASES...THIS IS PROBABLY STILL A LITTLE LONGER THAN NECESSARY...BUT WE CAN JUST CANCEL COUNTIES EARLY AS SNOW ENDS AS WE HAVE BEEN DOING ALL NIGHT. THESE NEW END TIMES JUST GET THE END TIMES FOR THE HEADLINES CLOSER TO WHAT REALITY WILL LIKELY BE. OTHER MINOR CHANGE MADE IN THE GRIDS WAS TO NUDGE WINDS SPEEDS/GUSTS DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS OUR GRIDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT STRONG ALL NIGHT. JUST BROUGHT SPEEDS MORE IN LINE WITH BIAS CORRECTED SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS. STILL SHOULD GET SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH IN SC/SE MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PULLS IN SRN WI. FORTUNATELY...WET/HEAVY OF NATURE OF THE SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL HELP HOLD IT TO THE GROUND...SO CONTINUED TO NOT MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS. PERHAPS BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS WITH CLOUD COVER TRENDS. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING THINGS OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A QUICK LOOK AT SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID BANK OF STRATUS IN PLACE ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE AXIS OF THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. SO FOR GRIDS...WENT CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH CLEARING OF SKIES TODAY...DELAYING THAT UNTIL THE SFC RIDGE STARTS MOVING INTO WRN MN AND KICKING OUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE CLEARING STARTS...IT SHOULD MOVE PRETTY QUICK TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND...CONTINUED TO GO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CWA FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WERE KEPT TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN EXPANDED CWA WIDE FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG EVENT WITH ONLY MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPREADING INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN PASSING TO THE EAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH LOWS/HIGHS ACTUALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. WEDNESDAY WAS A DAY OF INTEREST WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 12 DEG C ACROSS WESTERN MN. MIX DOWN OF THE GFS FROM 900MB INDICATED HIGHS NEAR 70 FOR THE CANBY AND MADISON AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES YIELDED AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE MID/LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES OVER THE CR EXTEND GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...TIME OVERNIGHT WAS SPENT HELPING THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER WITH THE ONGOING SNOW EVENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 SNOW STILL TRENDING AS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR MIXING IN FROM THE SOUTH. COULD GET A LITTLE -FZDZ OR LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING AS THE SNOW LOSES INTENSITY AND REFOCUSES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. KMSP... SNOW RATES WILL IMPROVE NEAR THE MORNING RUSH...BUT THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFT CONDITIONS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS THE SNOW BECOMES LIGHTER THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MIX IN AS WELL THIS MORNING. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR LIFTING CEILINGS BY THE EVENING RUSH TODAY. THE MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED...HOWEVER...AT LEAST THE SNOW RATES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN EARLY TONIGHT. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-15KTS. SUN...CHC MVFR/-RASN. WINDS SW 5-10KTS. MON...CHC MVFR/-RA. WINDS N 10KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ052- 053-060>063-068>070-076-077. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ049. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ044-045- 050-051-058-059-065>067-073>075-082-083-091. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ084- 085-092-093. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ078. WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ014>016- 023>025-027. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ026- 028. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
855 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... FOG APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE PARAMETERS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AND DEACTIVATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM OUR WEBSITE. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BT && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT... SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO SET UP OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM BAKER SOUTHWARD TO ALZADA. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BREAKING UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVES. HRRR ALSO INDICATING FOG TO BREAK UP BY 15Z. WEAK GAP FLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA. SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF BILLINGS IS CAUSING PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF LIVINGSTON WHILE WEAK PRESSURE RISES WERE NOTED OVER YELLOWSTONE PARK. THIS IS ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH IN LIVINGSTON. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES CYCLONIC. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL MORE WAVES TO DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. SHORT WAVE TOMORROW WILL BE MORE VIGOROUS THAN TODAYS WAVE AND HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY. WAVE WILL BE FAST MOVING AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. RICHMOND .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU... SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/S RUNS...THE MODELS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN UNTIL WED. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED PERIODS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON SUN THROUGH EARLY MON...A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. BASED ON THE CAPE FORECASTS...THIS WAVE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL WAIT TIL THIS PERIOD GETS CLOSER BEFORE ADDING ANY THUNDER. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DRY WEATHER WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BASED ON MIXING TO 700 MB ON TUE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE TOWARD THE AREA ON WED...BUT THE ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THE WAVE. THE ECMWF BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE GFS DELAYED THE FRONT UNTIL WED NIGHT. BASED ON THIS TIMING UNCERTAINTY...WENT WITH A MIX OF THE CONSALL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE POPS. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO UNCERTAIN FOR WED SO WENT WITH A GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR THOSE AS WELL. FOR THU INTO FRI...THE ECMWF TRIED TO REBUILD A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAD AN UNSETTLED W TO NW FLOW. GIVEN THIS CONTINUED PATTERN UNCERTAINTY...WENT WITH MODEL COMPROMISES FOR THE FORECAST. ARTHUR && .AVIATION... THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD E TO A RED LODGE TO KBIL TO FORSYTH LINE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN SNOW SHOWERS MIX WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NE BIG HORNS WILL HAVE LOCALIZED OBSCURATION LATE TONIGHT. ARTHUR/HOOLEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 054 035/053 035/052 035/058 038/070 043/066 040/060 0/B 22/W 34/W 32/W 01/U 01/B 21/B LVM 055 034/050 034/049 033/054 036/064 040/064 038/058 2/W 32/W 36/W 22/W 01/N 12/W 22/W HDN 055 030/054 031/055 034/060 034/071 039/068 038/060 0/B 12/W 34/W 32/W 01/B 02/W 21/B MLS 054 031/055 032/054 033/056 033/070 041/068 038/058 0/B 12/W 23/W 22/W 01/B 01/U 21/B 4BQ 053 030/055 031/055 032/056 032/070 038/067 036/058 0/U 02/W 33/W 32/W 01/B 11/U 21/B BHK 048 029/054 030/055 031/052 030/066 039/065 036/055 0/B 11/B 23/W 22/W 01/B 01/U 21/B SHR 054 028/052 030/052 031/054 032/067 037/066 036/058 0/U 02/W 33/W 32/W 01/B 11/U 32/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
257 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT... SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY DENSE FOG TO SET UP OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM BAKER SOUTHWARD TO ALZADA. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BREAKING UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVES. HRRR ALSO INDICATING FOG TO BREAK UP BY 15Z. WEAK GAP FLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA. SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF BILLINGS IS CAUSING PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF LIVINGSTON WHILE WEAK PRESSURE RISES WERE NOTED OVER YELLOWSTONE PARK. THIS IS ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH IN LIVINGSTON. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES CYCLONIC. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL MORE WAVES TO DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. SHORT WAVE TOMORROW WILL BE MORE VIGOROUS THAN TODAYS WAVE AND HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY. WAVE WILL BE FAST MOVING AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. RICHMOND .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU... SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/S RUNS...THE MODELS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN UNTIL WED. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE UNSETTLED PERIODS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON SUN THROUGH EARLY MON...A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. BASED ON THE CAPE FORECASTS...THIS WAVE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL WAIT TIL THIS PERIOD GETS CLOSER BEFORE ADDING ANY THUNDER. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DRY WEATHER WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BASED ON MIXING TO 700 MB ON TUE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 70 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE TOWARD THE AREA ON WED...BUT THE ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THE WAVE. THE ECMWF BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE GFS DELAYED THE FRONT UNTIL WED NIGHT. BASED ON THIS TIMING UNCERTAINTY...WENT WITH A MIX OF THE CONSALL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE POPS. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO UNCERTAIN FOR WED SO WENT WITH A GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR THOSE AS WELL. FOR THU INTO FRI...THE ECMWF TRIED TO REBUILD A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAD AN UNSETTLED W TO NW FLOW. GIVEN THIS CONTINUED PATTERN UNCERTAINTY...WENT WITH MODEL COMPROMISES FOR THE FORECAST. ARTHUR && .AVIATION... IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG AND STRATUS WILL AFFECT AREAS E AND SE OF KMLS...INCLUDING THE KBHK AREA...THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMLS AS WELL...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DENSE AS THE FOG FURTHER E. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD E TO A RED LODGE TO KBIL TO FORSYTH LINE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN SNOW SHOWERS MIX WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NE BIG HORNS WILL HAVE LOCALIZED OBSCURATION LATE TONIGHT. ARTHUR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 054 035/053 035/052 035/058 038/070 043/066 040/060 0/B 22/W 34/W 32/W 01/U 01/B 21/B LVM 055 034/050 034/049 033/054 036/064 040/064 038/058 2/W 32/W 36/W 22/W 01/N 12/W 22/W HDN 055 030/054 031/055 034/060 034/071 039/068 038/060 0/B 12/W 34/W 32/W 01/B 02/W 21/B MLS 054 031/055 032/054 033/056 033/070 041/068 038/058 0/B 12/W 23/W 22/W 01/B 01/U 21/B 4BQ 053 030/055 031/055 032/056 032/070 038/067 036/058 0/U 02/W 33/W 32/W 01/B 11/U 21/B BHK 048 029/054 030/055 031/052 030/066 039/065 036/055 0/F 11/B 23/W 22/W 01/B 01/U 21/B SHR 054 028/052 030/052 031/054 032/067 037/066 036/058 0/B 02/W 33/W 32/W 01/B 11/U 32/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
615 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATES A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...ZONAL FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE PACIFIC NW COAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER EAST...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE SRN STREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN ARIZONA WITH HT FALLS OF 50 TO 130 METERS NOTED FROM EL PASO TO TUSCON. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO. FURTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER NRN MISSOURI. DECENT SRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE SRLY WINDS...ALLOWED FOR DECENT MIXING BY MID MORNING WHICH PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. BY 2 PM CDT...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURE RANGED FROM 57 AT NORTH PLATTE...TO 65 AT VALENTINE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SAGGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SHORTLY BEHIND. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH YET THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM GARDEN COUNTY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY AS INDICATED LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WHERE CAPES OF 100-250 J/KG EXIST. ALSO...THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR BOTH FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA. TONIGHT...THE NAM IS HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN THE NORTH. BELIEVE THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT WORTH MONITORING. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS CO/KS...WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES ESE FROM WY INTO NE LATER IN THE DAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS MODELS ARE GENERATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL RUN FROM AROUND ONEILL TO IMPERIAL TOMORROW AS WELL. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH RATHER LOW CAPES OF ABOUT 100-200 J/KG. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE BEST ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...APPROACHING NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...ABUNDANT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CARRY OVER FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS HAVE NEGATIVE LI`S SUNDAY EVENING WITH UNSTABLE CONDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. INHERITED FCST HAD A MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY EVENING...AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS RIGHT NOW. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL WANE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MILD TEMPS MONDAY MORNING. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FAR WEST TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE FOR LOWS MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WITH EXPECTED MIXING...LOWS ON THE ORDER OF MID 30S IN THE WEST...TO UPPER 30S IN THE EAST SEEM TO BE A BETTER FIT TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE INHERITED FCST. WITH WARMER LOWS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING...THE MENTION OF SNOW WAS SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE ONLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND A SLIVER OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z MONDAY. ON MONDAY...STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH WINDS THIS MORNING...AND IS INDICATIVE OF ADVISORY SPEED WINDS FROM LATE MORNING MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE RAMPED UP WINDS IN THE GRIDS AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE SHORT TERM DESK MENTION THE WIND THREAT IN THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO WIND...VERY COLD H500 TEMPS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE HEATING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST AND HAVE LINGERED THEM THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY AIR...LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETTING UP MONDAY NIGHT AS WARMER H85 AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEY...TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. ON TUESDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH WARMER H85 TEMPS OF 8 TO 14C WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO 10 TO 20 MPH...AS WELL AND MAY GUST UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND FCST HIGHS IN THE 60S MAY PUSH FIRE DANGER TO EXTREME OR NEAR CRITICAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE LONG RANGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR PCPN LATE NEXT WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BE SUPPRESSED AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW DEW POINTS AND WIND...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SRLY STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE LATEST MID RANGE SOLNS ARE INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO WE MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH EJECTS ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK SFC FRONT FROM KOGA TO KVTN DRIFTS SOUTH AND GETS HUNG UP FROM KIML TO KONL ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. DRY AIR BELOW H700MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR ALL AREAS DURING THE THIS PERIOD. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG LONG TERM...CLB AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1012 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 TEMPS RISES ARE BEING SUPPRESSED UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD COVER. WHILE BELIEVE OUR HIGH TEMPS LOOK GOOD...HAVE DECREASED THE HOURLY TEMP CURVES PRIMARILY FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM /ESTF/ UPDATE TO THE FCST TO SLOW DOWN THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRATUS. THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE FCST AREA MUCH OF THE DAY...DESPITE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN. MORE LATER... && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 AFTER A RETURN OF WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY...QUIETER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT PCPN TO OUR REGION YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS TODAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL DEPART IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM GIVING WAY TO SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW/MID 50S E/W. THE STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTN. TONIGHT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP STEADY TEMPERATURES NEAR 30F FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS. CONSIDERED A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE RETURN IS ESTABLISHED DUE TO GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND RECENT WET GROUND BUT MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS AND WILL MONITOR. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE START OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...AS THE REGION SITS UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES/NERN CONUS AND ANOTHER MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...THOUGH THAT DESERT SW SYSTEM CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY EAST. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CREEPING TOWARD WRN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT FEEL THAT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OF UNTIL POST 00Z. EXPECTED A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST...THOUGH EXPECT GUSTS TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DIDNT MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S...BUT DID TREND DOWN DEWPOINTS WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS OUT OF THE SW. DIDNT GO QUITE AS LOW AS SOME DATA SUGGESTS...BUT AT LEAST TRENDED THAT WAY...AND WILL BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES DROPPED...BUT AT ITS CURRENT FORECAST LOW POINT IS STILL ABOVE 25 PERCENT. LOOKING TO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS IS THE TIME FRAME WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING IT NOT BE A CLEAR CUT SYSTEM THAT JUST SWINGS THROUGH...RATHER IT COMING FROM A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES. PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT WITH THIS PERIOD AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT BY 12Z SUNDAY THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT LEAD DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS /POSSIBLY CLOSED OFF AT 700MB/ IS LAGGING JUST A BIT BEHIND. THAT MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS DURING THE DAY/EVENING ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. LIFT FROM THIS LATEST SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG RAIN OUT ACROSS THE AREA...RATHER KEEPING QPF FIELDS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. JUST HARD TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS POINT WITH TIMING/LOCATION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEPING THINGS ABOVE FREEZING. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...THE MOST INSTABILITY SHOWN BY ANY MODEL IS 100-200 J/KG...AND THERE ISNT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THAT. HIGHS FOR BOTH SUN/MON CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MORE AMPLIFIED N/NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS RIDGE DOES BROADEN OUT A BIT...BUT SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST FLATTENS IT OUT ENOUGH THAT FLOW OVER THE AREA IS MAINLY ZONAL. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE AXIS...AND CURRENTLY EXPECTED HIGHS ON TUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH WED/THURS MORE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S RANGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 TIMING OF DECREASING CLOUDS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS HAVE HELD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER THE BEST AND HAVE USED THIS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID MORNING THEN RAISED CIGS TO VFR BEFORE CLEARING SKIES AROUND MID DAY. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...FAY LONG TERM...ADO AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
742 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 742 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM /ESTF/ UPDATE TO THE FCST TO SLOW DOWN THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRATUS. THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE FCST AREA MUCH OF THE DAY...DESPITE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN. MORE LATER... && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 AFTER A RETURN OF WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY...QUIETER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT PCPN TO OUR REGION YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS TODAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL DEPART IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM GIVING WAY TO SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW/MID 50S E/W. THE STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTN. TONIGHT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP STEADY TEMPERATURES NEAR 30F FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS. CONSIDERED A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE RETURN IS ESTABLISHED DUE TO GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND RECENT WET GROUND BUT MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS AND WILL MONITOR. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE START OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...AS THE REGION SITS UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES/NERN CONUS AND ANOTHER MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...THOUGH THAT DESERT SW SYSTEM CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY EAST. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CREEPING TOWARD WRN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT FEEL THAT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OF UNTIL POST 00Z. EXPECTED A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST...THOUGH EXPECT GUSTS TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DIDNT MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S...BUT DID TREND DOWN DEWPOINTS WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS OUT OF THE SW. DIDNT GO QUITE AS LOW AS SOME DATA SUGGESTS...BUT AT LEAST TRENDED THAT WAY...AND WILL BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES DROPPED...BUT AT ITS CURRENT FORECAST LOW POINT IS STILL ABOVE 25 PERCENT. LOOKING TO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS IS THE TIME FRAME WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING IT NOT BE A CLEAR CUT SYSTEM THAT JUST SWINGS THROUGH...RATHER IT COMING FROM A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES. PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT WITH THIS PERIOD AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT BY 12Z SUNDAY THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT LEAD DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS /POSSIBLY CLOSED OFF AT 700MB/ IS LAGGING JUST A BIT BEHIND. THAT MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS DURING THE DAY/EVENING ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. LIFT FROM THIS LATEST SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG RAIN OUT ACROSS THE AREA...RATHER KEEPING QPF FIELDS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. JUST HARD TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS POINT WITH TIMING/LOCATION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEPING THINGS ABOVE FREEZING. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...THE MOST INSTABILITY SHOWN BY ANY MODEL IS 100-200 J/KG...AND THERE ISNT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THAT. HIGHS FOR BOTH SUN/MON CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MORE AMPLIFIED N/NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS RIDGE DOES BROADEN OUT A BIT...BUT SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST FLATTENS IT OUT ENOUGH THAT FLOW OVER THE AREA IS MAINLY ZONAL. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE AXIS...AND CURRENTLY EXPECTED HIGHS ON TUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH WED/THURS MORE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S RANGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 TIMING OF DECREASING CLOUDS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS HAVE HELD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER THE BEST AND HAVE USED THIS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID MORNING THEN RAISED CIGS TO VFR BEFORE CLEARING SKIES AROUND MID DAY. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...FAY LONG TERM...ADO AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
525 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 AFTER A RETURN OF WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY...QUIETER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT PCPN TO OUR REGION YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS TODAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL DEPART IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM GIVING WAY TO SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW/MID 50S E/W. THE STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTN. TONIGHT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP STEADY TEMPERATURES NEAR 30F FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS. CONSIDERED A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE RETURN IS ESTABLISHED DUE TO GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND RECENT WET GROUND BUT MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS AND WILL MONITOR. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE START OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...AS THE REGION SITS UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES/NERN CONUS AND ANOTHER MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...THOUGH THAT DESERT SW SYSTEM CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY EAST. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CREEPING TOWARD WRN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT FEEL THAT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OF UNTIL POST 00Z. EXPECTED A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST...THOUGH EXPECT GUSTS TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DIDNT MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S...BUT DID TREND DOWN DEWPOINTS WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS OUT OF THE SW. DIDNT GO QUITE AS LOW AS SOME DATA SUGGESTS...BUT AT LEAST TRENDED THAT WAY...AND WILL BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES DROPPED...BUT AT ITS CURRENT FORECAST LOW POINT IS STILL ABOVE 25 PERCENT. LOOKING TO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS IS THE TIME FRAME WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING IT NOT BE A CLEAR CUT SYSTEM THAT JUST SWINGS THROUGH...RATHER IT COMING FROM A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES. PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT WITH THIS PERIOD AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT BY 12Z SUNDAY THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT LEAD DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS /POSSIBLY CLOSED OFF AT 700MB/ IS LAGGING JUST A BIT BEHIND. THAT MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS DURING THE DAY/EVENING ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. LIFT FROM THIS LATEST SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG RAIN OUT ACROSS THE AREA...RATHER KEEPING QPF FIELDS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. JUST HARD TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS POINT WITH TIMING/LOCATION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEPING THINGS ABOVE FREEZING. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...THE MOST INSTABILITY SHOWN BY ANY MODEL IS 100-200 J/KG...AND THERE ISNT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THAT. HIGHS FOR BOTH SUN/MON CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MORE AMPLIFIED N/NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS RIDGE DOES BROADEN OUT A BIT...BUT SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST FLATTENS IT OUT ENOUGH THAT FLOW OVER THE AREA IS MAINLY ZONAL. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE AXIS...AND CURRENTLY EXPECTED HIGHS ON TUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH WED/THURS MORE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S RANGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 TIMING OF DECREASING CLOUDS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS HAVE HELD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER THE BEST AND HAVE USED THIS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID MORNING THEN RAISED CIGS TO VFR BEFORE CLEARING SKIES AROUND MID DAY. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...FAY LONG TERM...ADO AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
347 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 AT 07Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALSO...COULD SEE A GOOD SWATH OF DRY AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH WAS RIGHT OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. RIDGING WAS SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...WHILE AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SITUATED FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THROUGH THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MOVED ONTO THE WEST COAST. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW WAS WELL TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WHILE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAVE LOTS OF DRY AIR...MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...WHICH HAS LED TO QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST...BY 00Z SATURDAY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE TURNED TO THE SOUTH. AS THE STORM SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND RIDGING BUILDS IN...THE COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BE DISPLACED BY WARMER AIR. AT 12Z...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA /0C TO -8C/...BUT BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL WILL WARM BY ABOUT 6 DEGREES. WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER...THE STRONG SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO WARM THE SURFACE UP AND MIX OUT THE STRATUS SO SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER GONE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S TODAY. STILL BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER THAN MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK. FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DIG DOWN INTO ARIZONA. THERE WILL BE WEAK LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING AND THUS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR. FORECAST LOWS ARE CURRENTLY RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY. MODELS BRING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...SO EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO BE INCREASING AND SEASONAL HIGHS AROUND 60. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH ONTO THE PLAINS WEATHER GETS MORE COMPLEX. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS IS CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO STILL GETTING IRONED OUT. THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT AN OUTLIER WITH A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE LOW. NORMALLY WOULD PUT LESS WEIGHT IN THIS...HOWEVER THE NAM DID BETTER WITH THE LOW AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE MOISTURE WITH THE WRAP AROUND OF THIS LAST EVENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK HEAT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME ISOLD THUNDER. AGAIN THE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION SO WE MAY NOT HAVE THE INSTABILITY THE MODELS SHOW. SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S. A SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A LOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE MORE POTENT SOUTHERN SYSTEM. AGAIN MOISTURE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON HOW MUCH PRECIP DEVELOPS AND REACHES THE GROUND. NOT IMPRESSED NOW AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLGHT CHC OR LOW CHC POPS. FRONT DOES NOT BRING VERY COLD AIR WITH IT...AS 850 TEMPS GENERALLY ONLY BRIEFLY TOUGH NEGATIVE TERRITORY AND THIS IS ACROSS THE NW CWA. THUS EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DIP INTO THE 30S. MEANWHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...AND INTO SW CANADA. THIS RIDGE DRIFTS EAST FOR MID WEEK WITH GUIDANCE AND FORECAST TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED AS A TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW TO END THE WEEK...TEMPS DIP DOWN TO THE 60S. MODELS BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 THE BANK OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS NRN/CNTL NEB COULD EITHER MOVE WEST AND DROP SOUTH AS INDICATED BY THE RAP MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS OR SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST AS INDICATED BY THE OTHER MODELS. SATELLITE SUGGESTS IT MAY BE BUILDING WEST TOWARD KCDR BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DECAYING AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD KLBF. THE FORECAST SHIFTS THE STRATUS SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 15Z-18Z. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AT KLBF. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BROOKS LONG TERM...MASEK AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1205 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SNOW IS RAPIDLY ENDING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 THE ACCUMULATING SNOW BAND HAS LARGELY PASSED EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE ADVISORY END TIME HAS BEEN MOVED UP FROM 4 AM TO MIDNIGHT FOR THOSE COUNTIES ACROSS OUR EAST THAT ARE STILL UNDER THE ADVISORY. THE SNOW BAND IS MOVING QUICK ENOUGH THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE SNOW HAS COME TO AN END. WE WILL NOT BE GETTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITHIN OUR ADVISORY AREA...BUT SINCE IT IS NOW SNOWING AND COMING DOWN PRETTY GOOD AT TIMES...WILL JUST LET THE ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS. MOST PLACES WITHIN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE 1 INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS MAY PICK UP 2 INCHES IF THEY CAN GET UNDER A MORE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW BAND. THE SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO ACCUMULATE DUE TO NEAR SFC AIR TEMPERATURES OF 32 TO 34F AND WARMER SOIL TEMPERATURES. IT IS JUST A TOUCH TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING MORE IMPACTFUL. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS EVENING TO AROUND FREEZING AND SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON AREA BRIDGES AND ROADWAYS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 ...A COMPLEX SITUATION IS UNFOLDING WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED DECENT PRECIP BUT HOW IT FALLS REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN EVEN AS IT`S ON THE DOORSTEP... ALOFT: A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF WAS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE AMPLITUDE FLOW AND EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO NEB/KS THIS AFTERNOON. CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW TOMORROW...HERE ON THE CNTRL PLAINS. SURFACE: THIS IS THE FIRST SPRING STORM OF THE SEASON...THOUGH ITS IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED FOR OUR FCST AREA. LOW PRES WAS OVER ERN KS...SITUATED ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONT. THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS LOW WILL CROSS INTO MO AND BE OVER LAKE MI BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...MODESTLY DEEPENING OVER THE JOURNEY. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SPILL S DOWN THE PLAINS AND INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE HERE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. NOW: LIFT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING VIA BLOSSOMING RETURNS ON RADAR. THE TROF IS SHIFTING E AND THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER KANSAS CITY. CLOUD TOPS ARE MODESTLY COOLING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE EDGES E. THE HI-RES RAP HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON THE REFLECTIVITY IN THIS BAND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 4PM- 5PM. THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION WITH P-TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE WILL IS SUB-FRZG W OF THE TROF AXIS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER /BL/ IS ABOVE FRZG...THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR AROUND TO ADVECT IN ...AND PCPN IS NOT FALLING HEAVY ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO OVERCOME THE WARM BL. THE PCPN INTENSITY WILL DRIVE THE P-TYPE AND AMTS. THIS MAKES THE FCST DIFFICULT AND PUTS INTO JEOPARDY THE OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN-SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMTS. IF PCPN DOES NOT COME DOWN HEAVILY ENOUGH...WHEN/IF THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS...IT WILL MELT ON CONTACT. FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOW THRU MIDNIGHT. HERE IS OUR CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON: INTERMITTENT DRZL WITH EMBEDDED SHWRS/SLEET OVER S-CNTRL NEB WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A FAIRLY STEADY R AND EVENTUALLY TO S AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN BAND HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY. TONIGHT: EXPECT BY 7 PM THAT WHATEVER RAIN IS FALLING SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE LOSE SOLAR INPUT ON SFC TEMPS. SNOW WILL END FROM W- E. IT IS WITH RELUCTANCE THAT I AM KEEPING THE ADVISORY...MAINLY DUE TO THE VERY LOW POTENTIAL THAT THIS PCPN COULD OVER-PRODUCE. BE ADVISED THAT SNOWFALL AMTS COULD END UP BELOW AN INCH AND SOME AREAS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT ACCUMULATE AT ALL. THE SNOW E OF HWY 81 WILL BE DONE BY 3AM. DECREASING CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW. FCST SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO NO MORE THAN 1 INCH AND I HOPE THIS IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF HAND GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST PRES RISES WILL OCCUR S OF I-70. GUSTS COULD REACH 40 MPH AT TIMES...E OF HWY 281 OVER S-CNTRL NEB. POSSIBLE FCST SHORT-COMINGS FOR NUMEROUS. THE SNOW HAS BEEN MODERATE AT TIMES TODAY OVER NW KS /CBK/ AND EVEN BRIEFLY AT MCK. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE TRANSIENT HEAVIER SNOW BANDS COULD SWING THRU N- CNTRL KS. TOMORROW: SUNNY AND TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. USED BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF MODEL 2M TEMPS AND THE PREVIOUS GID FCST. THIS RAISED HIGHS 3-4. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING TO NEARLY 700 MB. SO DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES...AND THERE MAY BE MORE DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL INTO THE UPR TEENS. WINDS WILL BE BRZY IN THE MORNING...GUSTING 30-35 MPH E OF HWY 281. BUT WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 MAIN CONCERNS WILL FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SAT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLUCTUATE DURING THE PERIOD IN QUESTION. STARTING OFF FRIDAY EVENING LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR REGION SHOULD PUSH THROUGH AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUT THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES AT THAT TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH LEE TROUGHING STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS SWITCHING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING. END UP WITH A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THUS IT WILL BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY BROAD...SLOW MOVING TROUGH WITH THE 500 MB AXIS OVER THE CENTER OF OUR CWA BY 00Z MON. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE TROUGH...OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON NORTHWEST FLOW. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES POINT TO ALL LIQUID. ALSO...INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH FORECAST MU-CAPES BELOW 100 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS BETTER JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE TRANSITION DAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE WARMER AIR TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION...BUT WED AND THURSDAY SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A NICE WARMUP WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE 70S WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 MODELS DIFFER ON LOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINAL...BUT WITH UPSTREAM MVFR CIGS WILL MAINTAIN CIGS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS YET UNTIL SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CLEARING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FAY SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB LONG TERM...EWALD AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1124 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SSW INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SERN STATES NWD INTO NRN MICHIGAN. A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...A 50 TO 80 KT JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM SRN AZ INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NWRN OK. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTH SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED INVOF OF A MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND FROM WESTERN HOLT COUNTY INTO FRONTIER COUNTY. FURTHER WEST...CLEARING WAS PRESENT...AND HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 34 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW...TO 43 AT THEDFORD AND OGALLALA. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 AS INDICATED BY RADAR TIMING TOOLS AND THE RAP MODEL...SNOW HAS EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 SOUTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION DISRUPTED THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AS A RESULT THE SNOW BAND HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY AS FIRST THOUGHT. THIS WAS A POSSIBILITY AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE GOING HEADLINES...AS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA FROM ONEILL TO BROKEN BOW AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS ACTUALLY BEGUN TO BACK WEST SOME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS AREA...AND PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCREASING. EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM HOLT COUNTY...SOUTH THROUGH WHEELER AND EASTERN CUSTER COUNTIES. LATE TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH SKIES CLEARING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -2C AT ONEILL TO 7C AT IMPERIAL. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WELL ON SUNDAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND SERN WYOMING. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...LEADING TO A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION TO WIND...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING UPPR LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. SRLY WINDS WILL CARRY OVER INTO SATURDAY WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST INVOF OF A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10C SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ARE ON TRACK. ONLY CONCERN MAY BE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT INTO WRN KS/SATURDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING PCPN CHANCES IN THE SWRN CWA...TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. ATTM...THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE NWRN CWA AND ARE COLLOCATED WITH NEGATIVE LI`S SATURDAY EVE...HOWEVER BL MOISTURE IS VERY MEAGER ON SATURDAY...ESP IN THE NW...SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM. ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WERE GENERALLY LEFT UNCHANGED FROM THE PVS FCST AS THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I DID ADJUST THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE SWRN CWA BASED ON WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE LI`S AND STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST INTO THE OZARKS. ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY WITH THE THREAT LINGERING IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING. IN LIGHT OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING AND COLD FROPA MONDAY...WILL LEAVE THIS MENTION IN THE ONGOING FCST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 TUESDAY...READINGS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE LATEST MID RANGE MODEL SOLNS ARE INDICATING A COLD FROPA WHICH WILL DROP OUR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 THE BANK OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS NRN/CNTL NEB COULD EITHER MOVE WEST AND DROP SOUTH AS INDICATED BY THE RAP MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS OR SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST AS INDICATED BY THE OTHER MODELS. SATELLITE SUGGESTS IT MAY BE BUILDING WEST TOWARD KCDR BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DECAYING AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD KLBF. THE FORECAST SHIFTS THE STRATUS SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 15Z-18Z. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AT KLBF. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CDC SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...TAYLOR LONG TERM...CLB AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1028 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A WARM SUNNY DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1028 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ONLY VERY MINOR/UNNOTICEABLE ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED AS OF 10 PM. CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH AND LATEST ANALYSIS/NEAR TERM RAP RH PROGS SUGGEST MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD SEE PESKY COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE AT KPBG/KBTV. WITH WESTERLY FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS AND THE CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM DESPITE MODEST COLD THERMAL ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...GENERALLY FROM 25 TO 30. ANY LINGERING SHSN/FLURRIES ACROSS THE NRN MTNS SHOULD ALSO BE ENDING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MID LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES AND UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE BTV CWA FOR SUNDAY MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 0C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE TO LOCALLY 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVERHEAD OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S EXPECTED. FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS APPROACH. P-GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN 925MB TEMPS AROUND +5C PUNCHING HIGHS INTO THE 50S. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN DEVELOPING LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF MIX ON THE SUMMITS...BUT QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASE S-SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 312 PM EDT SATURDAY...RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SFC LOW VCNTY OF WRN NY BRINGING WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES AND PCPN LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS (70-80 PERCENT)...BUT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHTER SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING UPR TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT. COINCIDENT LOW-LEVEL CAA TUESDAY NIGHT MAY ALLOW LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS VT...WITH UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP NW WINDS 10-20 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. STILL SOME NWLY GRADIENT FLOW WEDNESDAY...SO WINDS NW 10-20 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S (UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS). CLEAR AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. RETURN LOW-LEVEL S-SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST THURSDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID-UPR 50S MOST SECTIONS...WITH A FEW HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CARRIED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAY END AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS FRIDAY. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (HIGHS LOW-MID 50S). && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...EXPECT CURRENT BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CEILINGS TO THEN TURN MORE VFR/MVFR BETWEEN 02-07Z WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DROP OFF NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WELL BUT WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 09-12 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO WEST- NORTHWEST UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOWARD VFR THROUGH EARLY MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING SKC ALL TAF SITES BY THE AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 8-10 KTS...THOUGH WITH A SLACKENING TREND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 00Z MONDAY WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY INTO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GUSTY WNWLY TO NWLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OCCASIONALLY VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK. CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A WARM SUNNY DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 732 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED AS OF 7 PM. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES WERE TO DELAY CLEARING BY A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT AND TO DECREASE POPS FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RAP 850 MB RH/MODELLED REFL PROGS WHICH ARE HANDLING CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THESE FIELDS QUITE WELL. OTHERWISE JUST NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS TO T/TD DATA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING. PRIOR DISCUSSION... SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STILL MONITORING THE THREAT FOR UPSLOPE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT...BUT LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE BEST PV AND MOISTURE ARE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BY THE TIME THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY FAVORING UPSLOPE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL COUNTERACT ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY UPSLOPE THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN GREENS FROM MOUNT MANSFIELD NORTH TO JAY PEAK THROUGH A FEW HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF SKY COVER AND SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 8 KNOTS TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE BTV CWA FOR SUNDAY MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 0C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE TO LOCALLY 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVERHEAD OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S EXPECTED. FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS APPROACH. P-GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN 925MB TEMPS AROUND +5C PUNCHING HIGHS INTO THE 50S. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN DEVELOPING LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF MIX ON THE SUMMITS...BUT QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASE S-SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 312 PM EDT SATURDAY...RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SFC LOW VCNTY OF WRN NY BRINGING WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES AND PCPN LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS (70-80 PERCENT)...BUT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHTER SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING UPR TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT. COINCIDENT LOW-LEVEL CAA TUESDAY NIGHT MAY ALLOW LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS VT...WITH UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP NW WINDS 10-20 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. STILL SOME NWLY GRADIENT FLOW WEDNESDAY...SO WINDS NW 10-20 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S (UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS). CLEAR AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. RETURN LOW-LEVEL S-SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST THURSDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID-UPR 50S MOST SECTIONS...WITH A FEW HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CARRIED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAY END AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS FRIDAY. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (HIGHS LOW-MID 50S). && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...EXPECT CURRENT BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CEILINGS TO THEN TURN MORE VFR/MVFR BETWEEN 02-07Z WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DROP OFF NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WELL BUT WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 09-12 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO WEST- NORTHWEST UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOWARD VFR THROUGH EARLY MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING SKC ALL TAF SITES BY THE AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 8-10 KTS...THOUGH WITH A SLACKENING TREND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 00Z MONDAY WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY INTO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GUSTY WNWLY TO NWLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OCCASIONALLY VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK. CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...JMG/LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
723 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A WARM SUNNY DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STILL MONITORING THE THREAT FOR UPSLOPE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT...BUT LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE BEST PV AND MOISTURE ARE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BY THE TIME THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY FAVORING UPSLOPE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL COUNTERACT ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY UPSLOPE THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN GREENS FROM MOUNT MANSFIELD NORTH TO JAY PEAK THROUGH A FEW HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF SKY COVER AND SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 8 KNOTS TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE BTV CWA FOR SUNDAY MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 0C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE TO LOCALLY 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVERHEAD OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S EXPECTED. FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS APPROACH. P-GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN 925MB TEMPS AROUND +5C PUNCHING HIGHS INTO THE 50S. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN DEVELOPING LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF MIX ON THE SUMMITS...BUT QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASE S-SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 312 PM EDT SATURDAY...RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SFC LOW VCNTY OF WRN NY BRINGING WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES AND PCPN LIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS (70-80 PERCENT)...BUT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHTER SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING UPR TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT. COINCIDENT LOW-LEVEL CAA TUESDAY NIGHT MAY ALLOW LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS VT...WITH UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODERATE GRADIENT FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP NW WINDS 10-20 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. STILL SOME NWLY GRADIENT FLOW WEDNESDAY...SO WINDS NW 10-20 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S (UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS). CLEAR AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. RETURN LOW-LEVEL S-SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST THURSDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID-UPR 50S MOST SECTIONS...WITH A FEW HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CARRIED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAY END AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS FRIDAY. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (HIGHS LOW-MID 50S). && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...EXPECT CURRENT BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CEILINGS TO THEN TURN MORE VFR/MVFR BETWEEN 02-07Z WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DROP OFF NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WELL BUT WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 09-12 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHT WIND SHIFT TO WEST- NORTHWEST UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOWARD VFR THROUGH EARLY MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING SKC ALL TAF SITES BY THE AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 8-10 KTS...THOUGH WITH A SLACKENING TREND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 00Z MONDAY WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY INTO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GUSTY WNWLY TO NWLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OCCASIONALLY VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK. CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
252 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...BEING LOCATED NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY... MIXING HAD FINALLY TAKEN PLACE WITH SOME THINNING OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH A SMATTERING OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KT. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WINDS...THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES... BELOW 0.75 INCH...AND NEGLIGIBLE MLCAPE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE. THE LATEST MSAS LIFTED INDEX ANALYSIS SHOWED VALUES AT OR ABOVE ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL...THOUGH WITH SOME HEATING STILL DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT LOW NEGATIVE VALUES BY LATE IN THE DAY. STILL...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...DIMINISHING LIFT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST...AND RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AT BEST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION APPARENTLY LIMITED. THE CAP AROUND 700MB SHOULD ERODE SOME THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP DOES NOT ERODE COMPLETELY. IT IS CLOSE...THOUGH...AND WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WRF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND THE RETREATING BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER...THE VERY LATEST HRRR WRF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION THAT MAY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85. REGARDLESS...AGAIN...IT IS PRUDENT WITH SOME EROSION OF THE MID- LEVEL CAP...AND AN ANTICIPATED NARROW WINDOW OF INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...TO SHOW SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...A STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH A VIGOROUS SHOWER OR STORM SHOULD ONE DEVELOP...AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NOTES THIS. CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DUE TO THE EXPECTED SPEED OF THE FRONT AND LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS DRY THE AIR MASS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING IN A WINDOW OF A TIGHTER GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE WAY THE AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO WARM OF LATE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS WHILE THE NAM IS LESS BULLISH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CONFLUENT FLOW NORTH CLOSER TO TROUGHINESS ALOFT...THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE...OR MORE OPAQUE AT TIMES...HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. AS SUCH...WITH COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD REACH IN THE UPPER 30S ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. CURRENTLY... EXPECT VALUES THERE TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF FROST...ALTHOUGH IF CLOUDS ARE LESS PREVALENT UNDER A LIGHT WIND... A PATCH OR TWO IN THE MOST SHELTERED AREA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY... WITH A COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP...THERE CONTINUES TO BE NEAR RO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY...WITH IN-SITU DAMMING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. AS OUR NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OVERRUNNING PRECIP SHOULD COMMENCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON (MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH)...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO START UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES EVEN MORE IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ERODING THE CAD WEDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MANY TIMES THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK TO DO THIS AND IT MAY INDEED HOLD IN PLACE LONGER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIP. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE AND IF THE CAD WEDGE HOLDS...IT COULD ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING (MODELS KEEP BEST INSTABILITY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST) WHICH WOULD HINDER MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEN THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FLAT RIDGING MOVE OVER THE REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY...TOO. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE EXPECTED CAD AND PRECIP AND THEN DUE TO DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST. SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SHOULD SUCH AN EVENT OCCUR...THE PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD REACH AROUND 30KT AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KTS ARE LIKELY WITH INITIAL MIXING SATURDAY MORNING. BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY AND LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS STARTS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT SUCH THAT BY MONDAY THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT IFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE AT AROUND 2000FT MAY INCREASE TO VALUES APPROACHING 50KT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS COULD CAUSE LLWS CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART INTO WEDNESDAY... OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWER. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...DJF SHORT TERM...DJF LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS...BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1040 AM FRIDAY... AT 14Z...A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER...THOUGH DURING THE DAY THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z KGSO SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY BELOW ABOUT 500MB...AND AT THAT LEVEL THERE WAS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT THAT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE FAIRLY NUMEROUS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MID-TO-LATE MORNING. RAP PLAN VIEW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS AND ITS SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THIS MORNING IN SUGGESTING THESE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AND BREAK SOME AS DRIER AIR AT 500MB MOVES INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY. IF THIS OCCURS AS FORECAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH CLOSE TO EXPECT HIGHS...AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 30KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAP SOUNDINGS TOWARD KRWI SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS ACTUALLY JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 30KT...AND IF MIXING IS REALIZED A GUST OR TWO IN THE UPPER 30S MPH IS NOT UNREASONABLE WITH 925MB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 30 TO 35KT. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT STABLE THIS AFTERNOON. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BORDER SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AROUND 22Z OR SO. 850MB DIVERGENCE IS PREVALENT THROUGH THEN...AND THEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START TO INCREASE TO 1.4 INCHES...AND MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST KM RISES TO AROUND 300J/KG WHILE A 500MB JETLET AROUND 60KT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED IN THE COLUMN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS LIMITED ON THE AMOUNT AND STRENGTH OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IT MAY BE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR A MORE VIGOROUS SHOWER OR STORM COULD BE NEAR THE RETREATING BOUNDARY...ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER...GIVEN ENOUGH HEATING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THIS EVENING IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE FRONTAL CONVECTION IS APT TO BE WEAKER DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT PERHAPS THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 12Z...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER AND DRIER AIR AND LOWS IN THE 50S...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES NEAR THE PASSING FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPEPR MIDWEST AND RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IN WNW POST-FRONTAL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD. HIGHS 70-75 AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON SUNDAY AS INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERRUNS THE CAD WEDGE THAT WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA. DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE TN VALLEY MONDAY MORNING...NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY EVENING...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING THE START OF THE LIGHT RAIN IN THIS PATTERN...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING AND THICKENING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOPING NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE START OF THE STEADIER RAIN HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST STRATIFORM RAIN OCCURRING BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY AS 750-850 MB FLOW INCREASES TO 40- 50KT AND OVERRUNS THE ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL WEDGE AIRMASS. THE MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW QUICKLY AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE WEDGE ERODES...HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS EAST OF THE WEDGE...AND ASSOC SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE ERODING AND THE ASSOC BOUNDARY PULLING BACK NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUE...WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 00-06Z TUE. HOWEVER...ITS WELL NOTED THAT THE MODELS TEND TO UNDERPLAY THE STABILITY OF THE WEDGE AND TEND TO ERODE IT TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING THAT THE WEDGE WILL INDEED ERODE WITH TIME LATE MONDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR LATE-DAY CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR E/SE ZONES WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE FOUND...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBEMARLE TO DURHAM TO HENDERSON. WIND FIELDS IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT IF THE INSTABILITY IS ADEQUATE...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CELLS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF OUR CWA BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF DRYING IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WON`T COMPLETELY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE WON`T BE PLENTIFUL...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER OUR AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WON`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHEN CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY HOLD TEMPS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT (INCLUDING MUCH OF THE TRIAD) IN THE UPPER 50S...AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1040 AM FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR. A WARM SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS AROUND 14 OR 15Z...IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWNSTREAM OF A LOW STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH MIXING TAKES PLACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY AFFECT TRIAD TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z-00Z...BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS OVER EAST-CENTRAL NC. AN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 10Z. OUTLOOK: A DRIER AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUN NIGHT-MON. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...DJF/MWS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...DJF/MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TONIGHTS LOWS AS A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM PILOT MOUND...MB DOWN THROUGH EUREKA...SD SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...ENTERING MN SIDE OF THE VALLEY BY AROUND 06Z TO 08Z. A WEAK COOL FRONT CLIPS THE FAR NORTHERN VALLEY EARLY SAT MORNING. GENERALLY LIKE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BULLISH WITH MOISTURE AND HAS A COUPLE OF PERIODS (THE LAST TWO RUNS) WITH QPF BULLSEYES. NAM/ECMWF IS GENERALLY DRIER. TONIGHT...ATTM DIFFICULT TO ASSESS TRUE CLOUD COVER WITH SOME AREAS THINNING/CLEARING...BUT DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE LOW CLOUDS FROM RECENT SNOW IN OTHER AREAS. IN GENERAL..APPEARS CLOUDS ARE THINNING...AND THE RUC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON IT CLEARING OUT AFT 00Z ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST. CERTAINLY THINK BY 06Z AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT THEN SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVING INTO SASK WILL MOVE ACROSS MB IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME...AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE I DID REMOVE POPS AND GO WITH FLURRIES OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WITH SPRINKLES NORTHEAST BY NOON. GFS SOUNDINGS DRY MID LEVELS OUT INDICATING POSSIBLE DRIZZLE BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THAT POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL SEE BREEZY SFC WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS SHIFT NW EARLY EVENING AND BEFORE SFC HIGH BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT. SFC LOWS COULD BE COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING IN AREAS OF FRESHER SNOW AS WE SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMER TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE WILL STILL HAVE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE SKY COVER. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL SEE STRONGER RETURN FLOW SET UP SUN AFTN AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO 5OS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH A SFC LOW/WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS AREA SUN NIGHT...WITH NAM SHOWING SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS LATE SUN AFTN BUT GENERALLY DRY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF SIMILAR TO NAM WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION MINUS LATE SUN AFTN ACTIVITY. GFS BRINGS ACROSS MORE MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS SUN AFTN BUT LIMITS PRECIP TO SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA SUN NIGHT. AGAIN...GENERALLY LIKE THE DRIER SOLUTION ESPECIALLY WITH ANY GULF MOISTURE LIKELY BEING ROBBED BY STRONG CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN (BECOMING RAIN/SNOW BY EARLY MON MORNING) ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF HILLSBORO. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE N CENTRAL US INTO MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES TOPPING OUT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN 60S LOOKS LIKELY. FLOW THEN FLATTENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR FLATTENING THE RIDGE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FROPA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 FEEL CURRENT MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS FROM THE VALLEY WEST WILL LIFT SOME AND BECOME BROKEN BUT NOT LIKELY TO SCATTER OUT UNTIL THIS EVENING. THIS EVENING THICKENING CI WILL SPREAD FROM W-E ACROSS THE FA HOWEVER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPEICHER LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
121 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 TOOK ONE LAST SHOT AT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SNOW IS SCARCE AND SUN IS PLENTIFUL TODAY. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRATUS IS SLOW TO ERODE. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 QUICK UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHWEST. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF THE ADVISORY AREA CENTERED NEAR DICKINSON. EXPECT THIS AREA TO QUICKLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALSO WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT IN THE SOUTH. UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 1 AM MDT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WX CAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES IMPROVING IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER KDIK AND KHEI ARE STILL A QUARTER AND HALF MILE RESPECTIVELY. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR NOW AND CAN ALWAYS DROP IT EARLY IF VISIBILITIES REBOUND QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH STRATUS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WEST TO EAST. MADE SOME MINOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST LAST NIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEARED BEFORE FOG DEVELOPED. ADJUSTED MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD START. UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 RECENT SNOW COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRESH SURFACE MOISTURE SOURCE AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHERE THE SKY HAS CLEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY IS BEING REPORTED AT DICKINSON...BEACH AND IN BAKER MONTANA. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOW DENSE FOG IN BELFIELD AND BOWMAN. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 16Z. HETTINGER IS NEARING A CLEAR POCKET AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE TRYING TO FORECAST THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. THE HRRR SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECAST SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UP UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z. THEREAFTER...MIXING ENSUES AND CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CANADA FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THE BEST FORCING RESIDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE GEM/GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SATURDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP OCCURRING...SO THINK IMPACTS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW STATEWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS (THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET) IS FORECAST TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ECMWF) OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (GFS). FOR NOW INDICATED A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 7 FORECAST. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 THE VLIFR SITUATION IN KDIK AND MFVR IN KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE IN KDIK...DROPPING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO A MVFR CATEGORY OR LOWER. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...TM AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL ADDRESS TEMPS. WE ARE NO SEEING SOME THINNING/BREAKING UP OF CLOUDS IN SOUTHEASTERN ND BUT CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE ACTUALLY BEGINNING TO ADVECT WEST INTO BENSON COUNTY WHILE THE CLEARING OVER EASTERN ZONES HAS EXPANDED INTO CENTRAL POLK. THEREFORE I AM REDUCING TEMPS TWO TO THREE DEG IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLOUDY AS I DON`T SEE CLEARING OCCURRING IN TIME TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON CLOUDS (MAY ACTUALLY KEEP US WARMER TONIGHT). HAVE KEPT UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EAST. ALSO REDUCED MEASURABLE PRECIP/POPS TO LIGHT FLURRIES SAT AM AND SPRINKLES IN THE AFTN...AS MODELS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE INTL BORDER. UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OVER LAKE MANITOBA DOWN THROUGH WALL...SD WITH SOME CLEARING NOW EDGING INTO NORTHWESTERN BENSON COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF CLEAR SKIES THAT IS ACTUALLY EXPANDING OVER LAKE OF THE WOOD DOWN THROUGH FAR EASTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY. ESTF SKY TOOL DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS AND WILL USE IT FOR SKY TRENDS...WITH RUC H925-H850 RH PICKING UP ON SOME OF THESE AREAS OF DRIER LL MOISTURE AS WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY TEMPS OVER THESE EASTERN ZONES AS FOREST EFFECT MAY CAUSE WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FCST AS THEY ARE ALREADY CLEAR. WILL SEE HOW NEXT COUPLE SETS OF OBS COME IN BEFORE ADJUSTING TOO MUCH AS CLOUDS TO THE WEST MAY ADVECT OVER AREA (RUC DOES SHOW THIS AREA FILLING IN). OTHER THAN THAT...NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH LOW POPS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER AS NAM KEEPS SOUTHERN EXTEND OF ANY PRECIP AROUND WINNIPEG. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES IN...AND IF IT IS UNIMPRESSIVE AS WELL WILL LIKELY PULL POPS IN THIS AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 LAST COUPLE HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP STRATUS DECK OVER THE FA THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND WILL ADJUST LITTLE FOR THIS UPDATE. A COOL AND CLOUDY FRIDAY WITH SOME MORNING FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE FOR THE VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE FA. CLOUDS THE MAIN PLAYER WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AS FLURRY/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE WITH AREA METARS SHOWING VSBYS ALL HIGHER THAN 5SM. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY SATURATED BLYR TODAY EXPECTING STRATUS DECK TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER THE VALLEY. COULD BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE HIGHER EAST AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE FA SCT OUT FIRST AND THE VALLEYS TOPOGRAPHY SLOWS EROSION OF THE STRATUS DECK. SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME SCT-BKN CIGS LATE AFTN. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING FOR SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 5C IN THE WEST TO 1C IN THE EAST WITH SOME SOLAR AND FAVORABLE SW WARMING SFC WIND. SHOULD MELT SNOW AND REACH INTO THE 40S HWY 200 SOUTH AND FLIRT WITH 40 WHERE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER WITH MN TREES WARMING EFFICIENTLY TO NEAR 50. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 WEAK FROPA TO BRING CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH SAT PM. DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH AXIS CROSSING THE FA. ANOTHER SNOW MELTING DAY IF WE CAN MAINTAIN GOOD SUN. MAY HAVE TO BURN OF SOME FOG GIVEN WEAK SFC WINDS SUN AM. MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS CANADA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY (WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM)...THEN BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FAST MOVING WEAK UPPER WAVES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 FEEL CURRENT MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS FROM THE VALLEY WEST WILL LIFT SOME AND BECOME BROKEN BUT NOT LIKELY TO SCATTER OUT UNTIL THIS EVENING. THIS EVENING THICKENING CI WILL SPREAD FROM W-E ACROSS THE FA HOWEVER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...JK/TG AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1111 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 QUICK UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHWEST. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF THE ADVISORY AREA CENTERED NEAR DICKINSON. EXPECT THIS AREA TO QUICKLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALSO WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT IN THE SOUTH. UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 1 AM MDT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WX CAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES IMPROVING IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER KDIK AND KHEI ARE STILL A QUARTER AND HALF MILE RESPECTIVELY. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR NOW AND CAN ALWAYS DROP IT EARLY IF VISIBILITIES REBOUND QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH STRATUS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WEST TO EAST. MADE SOME MINOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST LAST NIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEARED BEFORE FOG DEVELOPED. ADJUSTED MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD START. UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 RECENT SNOW COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRESH SURFACE MOISTURE SOURCE AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHERE THE SKY HAS CLEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY IS BEING REPORTED AT DICKINSON...BEACH AND IN BAKER MONTANA. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOW DENSE FOG IN BELFIELD AND BOWMAN. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 16Z. HETTINGER IS NEARING A CLEAR POCKET AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE TRYING TO FORECAST THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. THE HRRR SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECAST SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UP UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z. THEREAFTER...MIXING ENSUES AND CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CANADA FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THE BEST FORCING RESIDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE GEM/GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SATURDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP OCCURRING...SO THINK IMPACTS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW STATEWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS (THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET) IS FORECAST TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ECMWF) OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (GFS). FOR NOW INDICATED A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 7 FORECAST. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR KDIK AT 16Z. KDIK REMAINS AT A QUARTER MILE BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT HOUR. ELSEWHERE...KISN AND KMOT HAVE CLEARED...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING FOR KBIS AND KJMS. KBIS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS THROUGH AROUND 18Z WITH KJMS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS UNTIL 21Z. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...TM AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OVER LAKE MANITOBA DOWN THROUGH WALL...SD WITH SOME CLEARING NOW EDGING INTO NORTHWESTERN BENSON COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF CLEAR SKIES THAT IS ACTUALLY EXPANDING OVER LAKE OF THE WOOD DOWN THROUGH FAR EASTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY. ESTF SKY TOOL DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS AND WILL USE IT FOR SKY TRENDS...WITH RUC H925-H850 RH PICKING UP ON SOME OF THESE AREAS OF DRIER LL MOISTURE AS WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY TEMPS OVER THESE EASTERN ZONES AS FOREST EFFECT MAY CAUSE WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FCST AS THEY ARE ALREADY CLEAR. WILL SEE HOW NEXT COUPLE SETS OF OBS COME IN BEFORE ADJUSTING TOO MUCH AS CLOUDS TO THE WEST MAY ADVECT OVER AREA (RUC DOES SHOW THIS AREA FILLING IN). OTHER THAN THAT...NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH LOW POPS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER AS NAM KEEPS SOUTHERN EXTEND OF ANY PRECIP AROUND WINNIPEG. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES IN...AND IF IT IS UNIMPRESSIVE AS WELL WILL LIKELY PULL POPS IN THIS AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 LAST COUPLE HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP STRATUS DECK OVER THE FA THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND WILL ADJUST LITTLE FOR THIS UPDATE. A COOL AND CLOUDY FRIDAY WITH SOME MORNING FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE FOR THE VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE FA. CLOUDS THE MAIN PLAYER WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AS FLURRY/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE WITH AREA METARS SHOWING VSBYS ALL HIGHER THAN 5SM. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY SATURATED BLYR TODAY EXPECTING STRATUS DECK TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER THE VALLEY. COULD BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE HIGHER EAST AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE FA SCT OUT FIRST AND THE VALLEYS TOPOGRAPHY SLOWS EROSION OF THE STRATUS DECK. SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME SCT-BKN CIGS LATE AFTN. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING FOR SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 5C IN THE WEST TO 1C IN THE EAST WITH SOME SOLAR AND FAVORABLE SW WARMING SFC WIND. SHOULD MELT SNOW AND REACH INTO THE 40S HWY 200 SOUTH AND FLIRT WITH 40 WHERE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER WITH MN TREES WARMING EFFICIENTLY TO NEAR 50. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 WEAK FROPA TO BRING CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH SAT PM. DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH AXIS CROSSING THE FA. ANOTHER SNOW MELTING DAY IF WE CAN MAINTAIN GOOD SUN. MAY HAVE TO BURN OF SOME FOG GIVEN WEAK SFC WINDS SUN AM. MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS CANADA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY (WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM)...THEN BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FAST MOVING WEAK UPPER WAVES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG ON THE VALLEY WITH IMPROVING CIGS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN EDGES. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CIGS INTO THE 2 TO 3K FT RANGE WITH SOME SCT CU BY 00-02Z THIS EVENING. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...JK/TG AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
914 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 914 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 1 AM MDT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WX CAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES IMPROVING IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER KDIK AND KHEI ARE STILL A QUARTER AND HALF MILE RESPECTIVELY. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR NOW AND CAN ALWAYS DROP IT EARLY IF VISIBILITIES REBOUND QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH STRATUS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WEST TO EAST. MADE SOME MINOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST LAST NIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEARED BEFORE FOG DEVELOPED. ADJUSTED MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD START. UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 RECENT SNOW COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRESH SURFACE MOISTURE SOURCE AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHERE THE SKY HAS CLEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY IS BEING REPORTED AT DICKINSON...BEACH AND IN BAKER MONTANA. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOW DENSE FOG IN BELFIELD AND BOWMAN. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 16Z. HETTINGER IS NEARING A CLEAR POCKET AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE TRYING TO FORECAST THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. THE HRRR SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECAST SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UP UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z. THEREAFTER...MIXING ENSUES AND CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CANADA FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THE BEST FORCING RESIDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE GEM/GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SATURDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP OCCURRING...SO THINK IMPACTS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW STATEWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS (THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET) IS FORECAST TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ECMWF) OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (GFS). FOR NOW INDICATED A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 7 FORECAST. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KDIK UNTIL 16Z. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z...AND VFR BY 18Z. ELSEWHERE...KISN AND KMOT HAVE CLEARED...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING FOR KBIS AND KJMS. KBIS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS THROUGH AROUND 18Z WITH KJMS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS UNTIL 21Z. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ031>033- 040-041-043-044. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...TM AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
646 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 LAST COUPLE HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP STRATUS DECK OVER THE FA THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND WILL ADJUST LITTLE FOR THIS UPDATE. A COOL AND CLOUDY FRIDAY WITH SOME MORNING FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE FOR THE VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE FA. CLOUDS THE MAIN PLAYER WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AS FLURRY/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE WITH AREA METARS SHOWING VSBYS ALL HIGHER THAN 5SM. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY SATURATED BLYR TODAY EXPECTING STRATUS DECK TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER THE VALLEY. COULD BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE HIGHER EAST AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE FA SCT OUT FIRST AND THE VALLEYS TOPOGRAPHY SLOWS EROSION OF THE STRATUS DECK. SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME SCT-BKN CIGS LATE AFTN. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING FOR SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 5C IN THE WEST TO 1C IN THE EAST WITH SOME SOLAR AND FAVORABLE SW WARMING SFC WIND. SHOULD MELT SNOW AND REACH INTO THE 40S HWY 200 SOUTH AND FLIRT WITH 40 WHERE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER WITH MN TREES WARMING EFFICIENTLY TO NEAR 50. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 WEAK FROPA TO BRING CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH SAT PM. DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH AXIS CROSSING THE FA. ANOTHER SNOW MELTING DAY IF WE CAN MAINTAIN GOOD SUN. MAY HAVE TO BURN OF SOME FOG GIVEN WEAK SFC WINDS SUN AM. MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS CANADA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY (WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM)...THEN BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FAST MOVING WEAK UPPER WAVES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG ON THE VALLEY WITH IMPROVING CIGS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN EDGES. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CIGS INTO THE 2 TO 3K FT RANGE WITH SOME SCT CU BY 00-02Z THIS EVENING. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...JK/TG AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 RECENT SNOW COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRESH SURFACE MOISTURE SOURCE AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHERE THE SKY HAS CLEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY IS BEING REPORTED AT DICKINSON...BEACH AND IN BAKER MONTANA. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOW DENSE FOG IN BELFIELD AND BOWMAN. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 16Z. HETTINGER IS NEARING A CLEAR POCKET AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE TRYING TO FORECAST THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. THE HRRR SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECAST SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UP UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z. THEREAFTER...MIXING ENSUES AND CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CANADA FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THE BEST FORCING RESIDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE GEM/GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SATURDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP OCCURRING...SO THINK IMPACTS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW STATEWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS (THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET) IS FORECAST TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ECMWF) OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (GFS). FOR NOW INDICATED A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 7 FORECAST. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOST TERMINALS IN MVFR STATUS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500FT AND 2500FT. KDIK IS HAS THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR KDIK UNTIL 16Z. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z...AND VFR BY 18Z. ELSEWHERE...KISN AND KMOT HAVE BEEN ON THE EDGE OF MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECTING THESE TAF SITES TO IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. KBIS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS THROUGH 18Z WITH KJMS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS UNTIL 21Z. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ031>033- 040-041-043-044. && $$ UPDATE...TM SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...TM AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHERE THE SKY HAS CLEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY IS BEING REPORTED AT DICKINSON...BEACH AND IN BAKER MONTANA. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOW DENSE FOG IN BELFIELD AND BOWMAN. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 16Z. HETTINGER IS NEARING A CLEAR POCKET AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE TRYING TO FORECAST THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. THE HRRR SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECAST SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UP UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z. THEREAFTER...MIXING ENSUES AND CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CANADA FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THE BEST FORCING RESIDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE GEM/GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SATURDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP OCCURRING...SO THINK IMPACTS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW STATEWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS (THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET) IS FORECAST TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ECMWF) OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT (GFS). FOR NOW INDICATED A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 7 FORECAST. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF PARTIAL CLEARING. WITH ANY CLEARING THAT DEVELOPS...PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT WITH VSBYS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z FRIDAY WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS DOMINATING THEREAFTER. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ031>033- 040-041-043-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...TM AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1209 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS SOME POCKETS OF CLEARING ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS FORMING FARTHER WEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS ANY CLEARING COULD RESULT IN FOG TO COMMENCE. ONCE MIXING ENSUES BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST SASK AT 9 PM CDT. SURFACE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE MINIMUM NOSING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. BELIEVE CLEARING WILL BEGIN NORTH CENTRAL LATE THIS EVENING AND NOSE SOUTH AS IT ALSO ERODES FORM THE SOUTHWEST. ADJUSTED CLOUDS FOR THIS. ALSO SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN A BIT LONGER SOUTH CENTRAL UNDER THIS NEW CLOUD PATTERN...RAISED THE MIN`S ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES SOUTH CENTRAL FROM THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 PRETTY SOLID OVERCAST THIS EVENING ACROSS THE STATE SO BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY WEST DURING THE FIST COUPLE HOURS THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. EVENTUALLY DURING THE MID EVENING THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WEST. ADDED PATCHY FOG WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS SEEM OK SO FAR. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A TEMPERATURE FORECAST IMPACTED BY FRESH SNOW COVER. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS MANY ROADS ARE NOW WET OR SLUSH COVERED. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A QUICK RE-FREEZE DURING THE EARLY EVENING...RESULTING IN SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST HALF...SLIGHTLY WARMER EAST. ON THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AREAS THAT DIDN`T RECEIVE AS MUCH RECENT SNOWFALL. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ELSEWHERE SHOULD HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/WV`S WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. EACH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...CURRENTLY DEPICTED FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANOTHER ROUND DURING THE DAY AND EVENING SUNDAY MORE WIDESPREAD. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL POCKET OF WARM AIR AROUND 5C. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SFC TEMPERATURES. AS THE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...SFC LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH NORTH DAKOTA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. MAY VERY WELL SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS ONLY RAIN WOULD THEN FALL. STRONGER EMBEDDED S/WV MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY MORE ENERGY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TRANSITIONING OUR FLOW ALOFT TO NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO MONDAY. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY DAYTIME. LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE LOW COMBINES WITH SUPPORT ALOFT TO PROVIDE A BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH MODELS GENERATING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUS WENT WITH SHOWERS VERSUS STRATIFORM. MAY WANT TO CONSIDER THUNDER MENTION IN LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK AND TDS ARE RATHER LOW IN THE 30S. CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE RIDGE FLATTENING WED NIGHT-THURSDAY AS RIDGE RIDER S/WV`S MOVE EAST INTO NORTH AMERICAN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD INTRODUCE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED (HIGHS 40S/LOWER 50S AND LOWS 25-35). ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST...MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING GOOD. COOLER AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES THURSDAY AND ON CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A TEMPERATURE FORECAST IMPACTED BY FRESH SNOW COVER. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS MANY ROADS ARE NOW WET OR SLUSH COVERED. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A QUICK RE-FREEZE DURING THE EARLY EVENING...RESULTING IN SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST HALF...SLIGHTLY WARMER EAST. ON THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AREAS THAT DIDN`T RECEIVE AS MUCH RECENT SNOWFALL. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ELSEWHERE SHOULD HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/WV`S WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. EACH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...CURRENTLY DEPICTED FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANOTHER ROUND DURING THE DAY AND EVENING SUNDAY MORE WIDESPREAD. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL POCKET OF WARM AIR AROUND 5C. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SFC TEMPERATURES. AS THE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...SFC LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH NORTH DAKOTA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. MAY VERY WELL SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS ONLY RAIN WOULD THEN FALL. STRONGER EMBEDDED S/WV MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY MORE ENERGY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TRANSITIONING OUR FLOW ALOFT TO NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO MONDAY. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY DAYTIME. LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE LOW COMBINES WITH SUPPORT ALOFT TO PROVIDE A BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH MODELS GENERATING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUS WENT WITH SHOWERS VERSUS STRATIFORM. MAY WANT TO CONSIDER THUNDER MENTION IN LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK AND TDS ARE RATHER LOW IN THE 30S. CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE RIDGE FLATTENING WED NIGHT-THURSDAY AS RIDGE RIDER S/WV`S MOVE EAST INTO NORTH AMERICAN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD INTRODUCE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXPECTED (HIGHS 40S/LOWER 50S AND LOWS 25-35). ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST...MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING GOOD. COOLER AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES THURSDAY AND ON CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF PARTIAL CLEARING. WITH ANY CLEARING THAT DEVELOPS...PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT WITH VSBYS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z FRIDAY WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS DOMINATING THEREAFTER. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KS LONG TERM...HEINERT AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY AROUND 12Z IN OUR FAR EAST. QUITE A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS UPSTREAM...AND HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST THIS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FEEL THAT EVEN IF WE DID GET SOME SUNNY BREAKS...WE WOULD MIX AND STRATOCU WOULD REFORM. THUS THINKING TODAY IS A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME CLEARING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BY LATER IN THE DAY. SOME FLURRIES ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING OUT OF THE STRATUS...MAYBE EVEN A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE SATURATION DEPTH DECREASES AND WE POTENTIALLY LOSE ICE FORMATION IN THE CLOUDS. THINK MOST OF THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MID MORNING AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY...WITH 25 TO 35 KTS AT 925 MB THIS MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE...BUT GIVEN THE BEST PRESSURE RISES STAY EAST OF THE AREA AND THE STRATUS LIMITING MIXING...THINK WE WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW...SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. GIVEN THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BLOWING SNOW...BUT SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS COINCIDE. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WENT ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE WE HAVE SNOW COVER...WHERE TEENS SEEM PROBABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY TO GET ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE GROUND. BUT THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OFF OR SLOWLY RISE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 SOMEWHAT DIRTY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY BREAK AWAY FROM FROM ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US. MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY IS CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH IN AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH...BUT SOME ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. GIVEN THIS IS THE CASE...THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE UP THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. WITH DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE THE DAY. APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST 925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWERS 20S...AND HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS....BUT POTENTIALLY NOT ENOUGH IF WE ARE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY MIX. COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE EARLY OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOTCHING 925 HPA TEMPS BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH DRY ENVIRONMENT...AM EXPECTING DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH COOLER YET UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING UP LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 MVFR STRATUS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH PARTIAL CLEARING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND THROUGH PARTS OF SW MN/NW IA IS EXPECTED. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY BENEATH THE STRATUS AS WELL...GENERALLY GUSTING IN 20-25KT RANGE. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WE COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT STILL ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT WITH SOME MELTING SNOW ADDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DECIDED TO LEAVE A MENTION OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOR KFSD/KSUX DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...SO ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHENARD LONG TERM... AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
641 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY AROUND 12Z IN OUR FAR EAST. QUITE A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS UPSTREAM...AND HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST THIS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FEEL THAT EVEN IF WE DID GET SOME SUNNY BREAKS...WE WOULD MIX AND STRATOCU WOULD REFORM. THUS THINKING TODAY IS A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME CLEARING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BY LATER IN THE DAY. SOME FLURRIES ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING OUT OF THE STRATUS...MAYBE EVEN A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE SATURATION DEPTH DECREASES AND WE POTENTIALLY LOSE ICE FORMATION IN THE CLOUDS. THINK MOST OF THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MID MORNING AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY...WITH 25 TO 35 KTS AT 925 MB THIS MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE...BUT GIVEN THE BEST PRESSURE RISES STAY EAST OF THE AREA AND THE STRATUS LIMITING MIXING...THINK WE WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW...SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. GIVEN THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BLOWING SNOW...BUT SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS COINCIDE. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WENT ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE WE HAVE SNOW COVER...WHERE TEENS SEEM PROBABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY TO GET ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE GROUND. BUT THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OFF OR SLOWLY RISE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 SOMEWHAT DIRTY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY BREAK AWAY FROM FROM ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US. MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY IS CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH IN AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH...BUT SOME ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. GIVEN THIS IS THE CASE...THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE UP THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. WITH DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE THE DAY. APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST 925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWERS 20S...AND HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS....BUT POTENTIALLY NOT ENOUGH IF WE ARE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY MIX. COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE EARLY OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOTCHING 925 HPA TEMPS BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH DRY ENVIRONMENT...AM EXPECTING DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH COOLER YET UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING UP LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SEEING IFR TO MVFR CIGS. GOOD COVERAGE OF STRATUS UPSTREAM...AND THUS THINK OUR TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING OF THIS. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30 KTS AT KFSD AND KSUX...BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WE COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THUS DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FOG MENTION IN. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF BEST FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...SO ONLY KEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ080-081- 089-090. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ014- 021-022-032. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ002-003- 013. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHENARD LONG TERM... AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
403 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY AROUND 12Z IN OUR FAR EAST. QUITE A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS UPSTREAM...AND HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST THIS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FEEL THAT EVEN IF WE DID GET SOME SUNNY BREAKS...WE WOULD MIX AND STRATOCU WOULD REFORM. THUS THINKING TODAY IS A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME CLEARING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BY LATER IN THE DAY. SOME FLURRIES ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING OUT OF THE STRATUS...MAYBE EVEN A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE SATURATION DEPTH DECREASES AND WE POTENTIALLY LOSE ICE FORMATION IN THE CLOUDS. THINK MOST OF THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MID MORNING AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY...WITH 25 TO 35 KTS AT 925 MB THIS MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE...BUT GIVEN THE BEST PRESSURE RISES STAY EAST OF THE AREA AND THE STRATUS LIMITING MIXING...THINK WE WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW...SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. GIVEN THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BLOWING SNOW...BUT SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS COINCIDE. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WENT ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE WE HAVE SNOW COVER...WHERE TEENS SEEM PROBABLE. A WEAK WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY TO GET ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE GROUND. BUT THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OFF OR SLOWLY RISE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 SOMEWHAT DIRTY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY BREAK AWAY FROM FROM ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US. MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY IS CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH IN AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH...BUT SOME ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. GIVEN THIS IS THE CASE...THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE UP THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. WITH DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE THE DAY. APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST 925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWERS 20S...AND HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS....BUT POTENTIALLY NOT ENOUGH IF WE ARE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY MIX. COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE EARLY OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOTCHING 925 HPA TEMPS BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH DRY ENVIRONMENT...AM EXPECTING DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH COOLER YET UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING UP LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY DUE TO WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS...BUT AFTER 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING BAND OF SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR KYKN-KFSD-KMML/KTKC LINE...PRODUCING LIFR-VLIFR VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND...INCLUDING KSUX/KSPW...MAY SEE PERIODS OF SLEET MIXING WITH RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANGE TO IFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING KMHE/KHON...ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL...THOUGH MVFR VISIBILITY STILL EXPECTED AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY AT OR ABOVE 25KT FOR KFSD/KSUX TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ080-081- 089-090. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ014- 021-022-032. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ002-003- 013. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHENARD LONG TERM... AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1243 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014 .DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 57 FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 281 (MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WILL BE ACROSS LA SALLE...MCMULLEN...AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES. UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST TOWARDS THE COAST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GIVE INCREASING CIN. UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION BELOW. && .AVIATION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FAR NORTHWEST CWA AT 06Z...WITH SEVERE TSTMS OCCURRING JUST NORTHWEST OF COT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...WITH A HAIL THREAT ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 281. UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST SEVERE THREAT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN INCREASING CIN ALONG THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS IN VCT TAF 08Z-12Z AND VCSH IN CRP TAF 10Z-13Z. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...A TRANSITION FROM IFR TO VFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL BE AT VFR LEVELS BY 15-17Z AS STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR PUSH INTO SOUTH TX BEHIND A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/ DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN MAVERICK TO UVALDE COUNTIES. HAVE BEEN MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ALL NIGHT...BUT NEEDED THE PUSH OF THIS FRONT TO BE ABLE TO LIFT THROUGH THE CAP...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT HAS FINALLY BEGUN. ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THE CAP IS CONDUCIVE TO RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY HIGH CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HRRR AND RAP HAVE GOTTEN MORE ENERGETIC WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND IF THE FRONT CAN CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GENERAL BEHAVIOR OR STORMS SO FAR HAS BEEN A RAPID DEVELOPMENT...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DECLINE. THAT MAY BE THE PLAN ALL NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 82 62 72 63 80 / 20 30 40 40 30 VICTORIA 78 55 66 58 76 / 20 20 50 50 40 LAREDO 81 61 77 62 88 / 20 10 20 30 20 ALICE 82 59 71 60 80 / 20 20 30 40 30 ROCKPORT 79 61 70 64 77 / 20 30 50 50 40 COTULLA 78 56 70 57 82 / 10 10 20 30 20 KINGSVILLE 81 61 74 63 83 / 20 30 40 40 30 NAVY CORPUS 80 63 70 65 76 / 20 30 50 50 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ JR/76...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1126 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014 .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN MAVERICK TO UVALDE COUNTIES. HAVE BEEN MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ALL NIGHT...BUT NEEDED THE PUSH OF THIS FRONT TO BE ABLE TO LIFT THROUGH THE CAP...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT HAS FINALLY BEGUN. ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THE CAP IS CONDUCIVE TO RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY HIGH CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HRRR AND RAP HAVE GOTTEN MORE ENERGETIC WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND IF THE FRONT CAN CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GENERAL BEHAVIOR OR STORMS SO FAR HAS BEEN A RAPID DEVELOPMENT...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DECLINE. THAT MAY BE THE PLAN ALL NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 82 62 72 63 / 20 20 30 40 40 VICTORIA 64 78 55 66 58 / 40 20 20 50 50 LAREDO 62 81 61 77 62 / 20 10 10 20 30 ALICE 64 82 59 71 60 / 20 10 20 30 40 ROCKPORT 67 79 61 70 64 / 30 20 30 50 50 COTULLA 61 78 56 70 57 / 30 10 10 20 30 KINGSVILLE 67 81 61 74 63 / 20 20 30 40 40 NAVY CORPUS 68 80 63 70 65 / 20 20 30 50 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ PZ/83...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
359 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY... MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM OHIO TO LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND LOCAL MODELS BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 5PM. HRRR GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS AROUND 300 J/KG AT 19Z/3PM. SURFACE AND 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 850 MB WINDS ARE INITIALLY IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO 15 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. DEW POINTS LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY MIDNIGHT WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAD PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 10 MB IN 6 HOURS THROUGH 12Z/8AM SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BUT EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 229 PM EDT FRIDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WEEKEND MILD AND DRY. FOLLOWING A COOL START WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE TEMPERATURES PEAKING NEAR NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW...WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP GENERATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY...RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE WITH GULF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND OVER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING INSITU WEDGE WILL KEEP MONDAY WET AND GLOOMY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND INSITU WEDGE EASTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AREAS TO THE FAR WEST WILL HAVE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN BUT COULD SEE THE BULK OF THEIR PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS FROM THE LOW TRACKING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WEST WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRESSURE FALL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WOULD SUGGEST WEDGE WILL ERODE BY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY REDUCE THESE PRESSURE FALL AND KEEP THE WEDGE OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS WEDGE REMAINS...LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR RAIN ENTERING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND HANGING ON ALL DAY MONDAY. POPS CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY EXITS EAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 259 PM EDT FRIDAY... MODELS ARE NOT GIVING UP ON WINTER JUST YET. THEY ARE BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW...ACROSS THE GULF STATES TUESDAY THEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR A COLD RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECM KEEPS BULK...IF NOT ALL THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS HAPPENS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE WITH IT...WITH A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT WEDNESDAY...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE P-TYPE. RIGHT NOW...TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARY LAYER ARE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ARE REDUCED TO WESTERN SLOPES FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZES...DRIZZLE- PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THE LIKELY P-TYPE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 145 PM EDT FRIDAY... SHALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT LYH AND ROA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL CROSS THROUGH ROA BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE 18Z START OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND WILL SHIFT AT KLYH AROUND 19Z/3PM. HRRR AND INSTABILITY ANALYSIS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED SOME THUNDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE KDAN AIRPORT THROUGH 8PM. THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD REACH BLF/LWB AROUND 5PM...BCB/ROA AT 7-8PM...AND LYH/DAN BY MIDNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD VFR. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN...AS WELL AS IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS/JJM AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
207 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WET WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 150 PM EDT FRIDAY... RADAR TRENDS SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVED EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SPC ANALYSIS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. LIFTED INDEX VALUES WERE ALSO LOWERING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT EAST OF DANVILLE WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUNSHINE TODAY. THE SHALLOW WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN THE SOUTHEAST... REDEVELOPMENT OF STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL THEN HEAD DOWNHILL...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY... SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SATURDAY...SLOWED A LITTLE BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE EAST ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST. DYNAMICS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF REACH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SLOWLY INCREASE POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY AND REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY. A CLOUDY AND RAINY MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER ILLINOIS TUESDAY MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 145 PM EDT FRIDAY... SHALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT LYH AND ROA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL CROSS THROUGH ROA BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE 18Z START OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND WILL SHIFT AT KLYH AROUND 19Z/3PM. HRRR AND INSTABILITY ANALYSIS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED SOME THUNDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE KDAN AIRPORT THROUGH 8PM. THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD REACH BLF/LWB AROUND 5PM...BCB/ROA AT 7-8PM...AND LYH/DAN BY MIDNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD VFR. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN...AS WELL AS IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/PM NEAR TERM...AMS/PM SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
519 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WET WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY... 998 MB CYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WILL GET PROPELLED EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM MOIST AIR...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST. SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW IS RACING EAST...AND AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. THIS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR FCST AREA AT LEAST 6 TO 8 HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ENTERING OUR WESTERN CWA...WEST OF I-77 AROUND LUNCH TIME TODAY...THEN MOVING OVER THE MTNS BETWEEN NOON AND 2PM. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. THIS INITIAL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW KINDA PUTS A CLOUD ON THE FORECAST. WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING OUR FCST AREA AROUND NOON...THIS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR US TO REACH FULL SOLAR POTENTIAL TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY. THE ONLY PLACE MODELS BRING CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IS OUR PIEDMONT COUNTIES WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SUN PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...THIS MAY BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR STRONGER STORMS. FROM THE FOOTHILLS WEST...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUT A BIG QUESTION MARK ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL BE AVAILIBLE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION...NEW SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THAT SAID...THERE SHOULD BE A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT REDEVELOPS ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...JUST NOT CONFIDENT ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME OVERLY ROBUST. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...CURRENT FORECAST IS DETAILED TO REFLECT TWO POTENTIAL PRECIP EPISODES TODAY. ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE AREA BETWEEN 11AM(BLUEFIELD)-3PM(DANVILLE)...AND A SECOND UPTICK IN POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 6PM(BLUEFIELD)-10PM(DANVILLE). AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL THEN HEAD DOWNHILL...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY... SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SATURDAY...SLOWED A LITTLE BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE EAST ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST. DYNAMICS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF REACH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SLOWLY INCREASE POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY AND REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY. A CLOUDY AND RAINY MONDAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER ILLINOIS TUESDAY MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY... PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAY YIELD LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEW RIVER...GREENBRIER...AND ROANOKE VALLEYS...VCNTY OF KBLF/KLWB/KROA. ANY FOG THAT IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z...WITH SKIES STAYING VFR WITH INCREASING CU/TCU IN THE WEST BY MIDDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE COMMON. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA WILL REACH BLF/LWB AROUND 16Z/NOON TODAY...REACHING BCB/ROA AROUND 18Z AND TO NEAR KDAN AROUND 20Z. THIS INITIAL STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS RACED OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD REACH BLF/LWB AROUND 21Z...BCB/ROA...23Z...LYH/DAN 01Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40KTS. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD VFR. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN...AS WELL AS IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1121 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014 FLAT TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING. LATEST FOG PRODUCT SHOWS SOME STRATUS/FOG EAST OF A CRAWFORD TO ALLIANCE LINE. HRRR SHOWS THESE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HANGING AROUND UNTIL AROUND 9 AM BEFORE LIFTING. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED FLATTER WITH THE TRANSITORY RIDGING TODAY AND EVEN SHOWS WK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH IS NR THE UT/WY STATELINE THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE ENE REACHING NORTHEAST WYOMING BY THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES FOR A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND REMAIN VIRGA AS THE 30+F SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 40S WEST AND 50S TO MAYBE NR 60 OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS WELL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IN AND AROUND VIRGA SHOWERS. FLOW BACKS OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ADDL COOLING IN THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH...EXPECT INSTABILITIES TO BE MORE FAVORABLE TO CONVECTION SATURDAY. DONT THINK THAT THE AREA WILL SEE MUCH BEFORE NOON SATURDAY...WITH COVERAGE TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES WILL FALL TO AROUND -1C DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE BUMPED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY IN ADDITION TO ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR SATURDAY...WITH LOW 60S A GOOD BET ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN PANHANDLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY...THE SRN ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF A 140+ KNOT H3 JET STREAK DIVING SOUTH OF BC/ALBERTA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES. ADDED THUNDER MENTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THE HIER ELEVATIONS OF SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES WILL SEE ANOTHER 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANY ADVECTION IS NEGLIGIBLE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014 LONG RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THEN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...BY DAY 7 AND 8 MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. DURING THE WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW TO COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTLINE AND BUILDS NORTHWARD. ALL MODELS STILL SHOW A DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOW A BIT STRONGER WITH A MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST QPF VALUES ARE A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE JET AND MORE INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES OVER 500 J/KG INTO EARLY MONDAY. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 40 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE RIDGES. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH INTO MONDAY WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LLVL INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S DURING THE DAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS THEN SHOW THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INCREASING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. SOME READING IN THE LOW 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR EASTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THIS RIDGE QUICKLY WEAKENING BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM LAST NIGHTS 00Z MODEL RUNS. THIS GENERAL INCONSISTENCY BEYOND DAY 6 HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALL WINTER LONG WHEN MODELS HAVE INDICATED A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY 18 TO 24 HOURS LATER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. STARTED TO INCREASE POP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. FURTHER OUT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE 2ND WEEKEND OF APRIL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING) VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL AERODROMES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS FROM INCREASING MOISTURE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 40S WEST AND 50S EAST. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS RETURNING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY AND SATURDAY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAHN LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...RE FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014 FLAT TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING. LATEST FOG PRODUCT SHOWS SOME STRATUS/FOG EAST OF A CRAWFORD TO ALLIANCE LINE. HRRR SHOWS THESE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HANGING AROUND UNTIL AROUND 9 AM BEFORE LIFTING. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED FLATTER WITH THE TRANSITORY RIDGING TODAY AND EVEN SHOWS WK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH IS NR THE UT/WY STATELINE THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE ENE REACHING NORTHEAST WYOMING BY THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES FOR A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND REMAIN VIRGA AS THE 30+F SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 40S WEST AND 50S TO MAYBE NR 60 OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS WELL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IN AND AROUND VIRGA SHOWERS. FLOW BACKS OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ADDL COOLING IN THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH...EXPECT INSTABILITIES TO BE MORE FAVORABLE TO CONVECTION SATURDAY. DONT THINK THAT THE AREA WILL SEE MUCH BEFORE NOON SATURDAY...WITH COVERAGE TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES WILL FALL TO AROUND -1C DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE BUMPED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY IN ADDITION TO ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR SATURDAY...WITH LOW 60S A GOOD BET ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN PANHANDLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY...THE SRN ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF A 140+ KNOT H3 JET STREAK DIVING SOUTH OF BC/ALBERTA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES. ADDED THUNDER MENTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THE HIER ELEVATIONS OF SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES WILL SEE ANOTHER 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANY ADVECTION IS NEGLIGIBLE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014 LONG RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THEN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...BY DAY 7 AND 8 MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. DURING THE WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW TO COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTLINE AND BUILDS NORTHWARD. ALL MODELS STILL SHOW A DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOW A BIT STRONGER WITH A MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST QPF VALUES ARE A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE JET AND MORE INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES OVER 500 J/KG INTO EARLY MONDAY. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 40 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE RIDGES. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH INTO MONDAY WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LLVL INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S DURING THE DAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS THEN SHOW THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INCREASING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. SOME READING IN THE LOW 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR EASTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THIS RIDGE QUICKLY WEAKENING BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM LAST NIGHTS 00Z MODEL RUNS. THIS GENERAL INCONSISTENCY BEYOND DAY 6 HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALL WINTER LONG WHEN MODELS HAVE INDICATED A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY 18 TO 24 HOURS LATER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. STARTED TO INCREASE POP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. FURTHER OUT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE 2ND WEEKEND OF APRIL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT) VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAIA...AND KCDR WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CIGS AROUND 1K FEET AGL EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z...WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WITH DISSIPATING LOW CIGS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WINDS MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014 NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 40S WEST AND 50S EAST. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS RETURNING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY AND SATURDAY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAHN LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...TJT FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
322 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 OUR CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH NM...AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY. SOME WEAK ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN RANGES...WHILE SCT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN PLAINS. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW EXTENSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THIS MORNING OVER OUR SERN CORNER...THE NAM HOLDS ON TO EXTENSIVE PRECIP WHILE THE HRRR DRIES THINGS OUT PRETTY QUICKLY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO DRY WHILE THE NAM AND WRF MAY BE OVERDONE. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS OVER PROWERS...BACA...AND ERN LAS ANIMAS THIS MORNING...BUT AMTS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY 6000-6500 FEET AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 7K FOOT RANGE TODAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AND H7 TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AROUND MINUS 4 TO MINUS 8 OR SO BY MONDAY MORNING. BUT...PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO LOW ELEVATION SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT. OVER THE MTS...PERSISTENT SHSN CONTINUE TODAY...AND WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY PEAKS. AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE MORNING ZONE PACKAGE. ANOTHER TWO TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OVERNIGHT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME COLD MORNING LOWS LATER TONIGHT. ROSE .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 ON MONDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WL BE FOUND OVR THE AREA. A PASSING DISTURBANCE AND SOME LINGERING MSTR WL MEAN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MON WL LIKELY BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. UPR RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED OVR THE AREA FOR TUE AND WED...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS BOTH DAYS. THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED OVR THE AREA ON THU AS AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BACKS INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS ON THU...BRINGING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INCREASE IN MSTR OVR THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS OVR THE MTNS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LOWER EAST SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTNS WHERE THE UPSLOPE WL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS A WEAK UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPR TROF...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM BRINGING PCPN AND COOLER TEMPS TO MOST OF THE AREA THRU THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MUCH OF SERN CO. AFTER A SHORT LULL THIS MORNING...WILL SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY PICK UP AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THEN WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. FZG LEVELS WILL GENERALLY 7500-8000 FEET TODAY...AND THE MTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSCD WITH SCT-NRMS SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS VC THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN THE TAFS. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE AT KALS...WHICH SAW SOME LIGHT SHSN OVERNIGHT...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PC MORNING FG OR BR FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ROSE && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROSE LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
440 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014 .DISCUSSION... ...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY... ...INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT... TODAY...A WEAK MID LVL DISTURBANCE AT 500 MBS WILL PASS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER LIFTING SLOWLY NWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NRN SECTIONS TODAY BUT SOME THINNING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH RECOVERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES SHOULD ALLOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...LESS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S COASTAL COUNTIES AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NRN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS AT 925 MBS LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING S WINDS TO STAY UP IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE. OVERALL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE H8-H5 LAYER PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MON-TUE...THE SRN BRANCH OF THE H30-H20 JET STREAM HAS EXPANDED ACRS THE NA CONTINENT WITH THE 100KT ISOTACH EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE HATTERAS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH A 120KT CORE EXTENDING FROM THE LWR MS VALLEY TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS JET IS POSITIONED OVER A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE NRN GULF COAST AND WILL INDUCE A NEW STORM SYSTEM OUT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER W TX. THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A 100KT NRN STREAM JET DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW...FORCING THE SRN STREAM TO SHIFT OF A LIFTING ORIENTATION BY DAYBREAK MON BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO A 140-150KT CORE BY DAYBREAK TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STORM SYSTEM LIFT RAPIDLY NE WHILE DVLPG INTO A RATHER POTENT 980MB LOW AS IT PASSES OVER NEW ENGLAND EN ROUTE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TUE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE THRU CENTRAL FL MON NIGHT THRU TUE. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NRN STREAM JET HAS PLENTY OF UPSTREAM ENERGY LEFT TO FEED INTO THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN...CAN SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE PRESENT FCST REASONING AS RESULTING W/NWRLY FLOW BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHUNT A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL FL BY BY SUNSET TUE. MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH A GOOD UPR LVL DIVERGENCE COUPLET COINCIDENT WITH MID LVL OMEGA LIFT... WITH A TRAILING MID VORT MAX INDICATING SUSTAINED MID LVL SUPPORT. WX WILL BE DRY TO START AFT SUNRISE MON AS SUBSTANTIAL MID LVL DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE. ALSO...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DENSE FIELD OF MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PRECEDE THE FROPA THAT WILL HAMPER SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT APPEARS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP CHC/SLGT CHC OF AFTN POPS IN THE FCST AFT 18Z MON. PRECIP CHANCES BCMG LIKELY AREAWIDE BTWN 00Z TUE AND 00Z WED WITH INTENSITY OF AND CONVECTION REMAINING THE BIG QUESTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INCREASE PWAT VALUES AT KMCO TO ARND 1.7" BY 06Z TUE WITH 0-3KM HELICITY INCREASING TO BTWN 300-350 M2/S2...CAPE VALUES CLIMBING OVER 2000 J/KG...ARND 1500...ACCOMPANIED BY 45KT-50KT SW WINDS THRU THE H95-H70 LYR BY DAYBREAK TUE. GFS/ECMWF TIMING FOR THE SQUALL LINE IT PRETTY CLOSE...PUSHING IT THRU CENTRAL FL BTWN 12Z TUE AND 00Z WED. A DISTINCT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR WX REMAINS IN PLAY. HODOGRAPHS INDICATE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...THOUGH THE INCREASING HELICITY SUGGESTS ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. H50 TEMPS ARND -8C INDICATES LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. THE PERSISTENT S/SWRLY FLOW WILL PUSH MON AFTN TEMPS INTO THE M80S ALONG THE COAST AND U80S/L90S INTERIOR WHILE HOLDING OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE U60S/L70S INTERIOR...L/M70S ALONG THE COAST. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU...RAIN COOLED AIR AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TUE MAX/MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S ALONG AND N OF I-4...L/M80S TO THE S. POST FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION TUE NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE L/M50S ALONG AND N OF I-4...U50S/L60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. WED-SAT... SEASONABLE WX CONDITIONS THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACRS THE GOMEX AND INTO THE W ATLC. POST FRONTAL COOL DOWN WILL BE LIMITED TO WED WITH MAX TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE L/M70S N OF I-4...HOLDING IN THE M/U70S TO THE S... MIN TEMPS HOLDING IN THE L/M50S OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT U50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. THE COOL AIRMASS WILL MODIFY THRU LATE WEEK AS THE RIDGE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND ALLOWS AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DVLP. MAX/MIN TEMPS ON THU WILL RECOVER TO WITHIN 5F OF CLIMO AVG (U70S/L80S AND U50S/L60S RESPECTIVELY) AND HOLD STEADY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLD COASTAL SHRAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE DEEPENING ERLY FLOW...BUT THESE WOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FCST. && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH 07/06Z. A SMALL AFTERNOON SHOWER CHC AT KDAB AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AFT 19Z. UPPER LVL CIRRUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS INTO TONIGHT. && .MARINE...S WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME SSE/SE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT LATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. MON-MON NIGHT...STORM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RIDE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE...SUPPRESSING IT INTO THE FL STRAITS. INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE TO FRESH SRLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY...BCMG FRESH TO STRONG AFT MIDNIGHT MON INTO TUE AS A SQUALL LINE PRESSES INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE. TUE-TUE NIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG SWRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL AS THE SQUALL LINE PRESSES THRU CENTRAL FL. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICKUP OUT OF THE W/NW AFT SUNSET AS A POST FRONTAL WIND SURGE BOOSTS SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE. THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAVE THE LCL ATLC FETCH PROTECTED...LIMITING SEAS TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE. EVEN SO...THESE WILL CONSIST OF ROUGH SHORT PD WIND WAVES THAT WILL MAKE LOCAL BOATING CONDITIONS QUITE HAZARDOUS. WED-NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE DAY AS A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH. EVEN SO... OVERALL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THRU LATE AFTN AS WINDS SPIN DOWN...DIMINISHING TO 10-15KTS BY SUNSET WHILE VEERING THRU DUE N. THE OPPOSING WIND/GULFSTREAM DIRECTIONS WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SEAS 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE TO START THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THU-THU NIGHT...HI PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE W ATLC AND GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE THRU THE DAY...VEERING TO DUE E BY SUNSET AND CONTG OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE. && .FIRE WEATHER...MIN RHS AROUND 40 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A SE WIND DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. DRIER AIR AND CRITICAL MIN RH LEVELS EXPECTED BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 66 84 69 / 20 10 40 60 MCO 87 66 88 69 / 10 10 40 60 MLB 84 68 84 72 / 10 10 20 50 VRB 84 67 84 73 / 10 10 20 40 LEE 85 67 87 69 / 10 10 40 60 SFB 87 67 87 70 / 10 10 40 60 ORL 87 68 87 71 / 10 10 40 60 FPR 83 68 84 74 / 10 10 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
420 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014 .DISCUSSION... ...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY... ...INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT... TODAY...A WEAK MID LVL DISTURBANCE AT 500 MBS WILL PASS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER LIFTING SLOWLY NWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NRN SECTIONS TODAY BUT SOME THINNING IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH RECOVERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES SHOULD ALLOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...LESS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S COASTAL COUNTIES AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NRN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS AT 925 MBS LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING S WINDS TO STAY UP IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE. OVERALL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE H8-H5 LAYER PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MON-TUE...THE SRN BRANCH OF THE H30-H20 JET STREAM HAS EXPANDED ACRS THE NA CONTINENT WITH THE 100KT ISOTACH EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE HATTERAS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH A 120KT CORE EXTENDING FROM THE LWR MS VALLEY TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS JET IS POSITIONED OVER A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE NRN GULF COAST AND WILL INDUCE A NEW STORM SYSTEM OUT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER W TX. THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A 100KT NRN STREAM JET DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW...FORCING THE SRN STREAM TO SHIFT OF A LIFTING ORIENTATION BY DAYBREAK MON BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO A 140-150KT CORE BY DAYBREAK TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STORM SYSTEM LIFT RAPIDLY NE WHILE DVLPG INTO A RATHER POTENT 980MB LOW AS IT PASSES OVER NEW ENGLAND EN ROUTE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TUE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE THRU CENTRAL FL MON NIGHT THRU TUE. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NRN STREAM JET HAS PLENTY OF UPSTREAM ENERGY LEFT TO FEED INTO THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN...CAN SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE PRESENT FCST REASONING AS RESULTING W/NWRLY FLOW BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SHUNT A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL FL BY BY SUNSET TUE. MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH A GOOD UPR LVL DIVERGENCE COUPLET COINCIDENT WITH MID LVL OMEGA LIFT... WITH A TRAILING MID VORT MAX INDICATING SUSTAINED MID LVL SUPPORT. WX WILL BE DRY TO START AFT SUNRISE MON AS SUBSTANTIAL MID LVL DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE. ALSO...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DENSE FIELD OF MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PRECEDE THE FROPA THAT WILL HAMPER SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT APPEARS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP CHC/SLGT CHC OF AFTN POPS IN THE FCST AFT 18Z MON. PRECIP CHANCES BCMG LIKELY AREAWIDE BTWN 00Z TUE AND 00Z WED WITH INTENSITY OF AND CONVECTION REMAINING THE BIG QUESTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INCREASE PWAT VALUES AT KMCO TO ARND 1.7" BY 06Z TUE WITH 0-3KM HELICITY INCREASING TO BTWN 300-350 M2/S2...CAPE VALUES CLIMBING OVER 2000 J/KG...ARND 1500...ACCOMPANIED BY 45KT-50KT SW WINDS THRU THE H95-H70 LYR BY DAYBREAK TUE. GFS/ECMWF TIMING FOR THE SQUALL LINE IT PRETTY CLOSE...PUSHING IT THRU CENTRAL FL BTWN 12Z TUE AND 00Z WED. A DISTINCT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR WX REMAINS IN PLAY. HODOGRAPHS INDICATE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...THOUGH THE INCREASING HELICITY SUGGESTS ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. H50 TEMPS ARND -8C INDICATES LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. THE PERSISTENT S/SWRLY FLOW WILL PUSH MON AFTN TEMPS INTO THE M80S ALONG THE COAST AND U80S/L90S INTERIOR WHILE HOLDING OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE U60S/L70S INTERIOR...L/M70S ALONG THE COAST. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU...RAIN COOLED AIR AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TUE MAX/MIN TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE U70S/L80S ALONG AND N OF I-4...L/M80S TO THE S. POST FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION TUE NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE L/M50S ALONG AND N OF I-4...U50S/L60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. WED-SAT... UPDATE TO FOLLOW. && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH 07/06Z. A SMALL AFTERNOON SHOWER CHC AT KDAB AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AFT 19Z. UPPER LVL CIRRUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS INTO TONIGHT. && .MARINE...S WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME SSE/SE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT LATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. MON-MON NIGHT...STORM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RIDE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE...SUPPRESSING IT INTO THE FL STRAITS. INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE TO FRESH SRLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY...BCMG FRESH TO STRONG AFT MIDNIGHT MON INTO TUE AS A SQUALL LINE PRESSES INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE. TUE-TUE NIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG SWRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL AS THE SQUALL LINE PRESSES THRU CENTRAL FL. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICKUP OUT OF THE W/NW AFT SUNSET AS A POST FRONTAL WIND SURGE BOOSTS SUSTAINED SPEEDS INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE. THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL LEAVE THE LCL ATLC FETCH PROTECTED...LIMITING SEAS TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE. EVEN SO...THESE WILL CONSIST OF ROUGH SHORT PD WIND WAVES THAT WILL MAKE LOCAL BOATING CONDITIONS QUITE HAZARDOUS. WED-NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE DAY AS A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH. EVEN SO... OVERALL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THRU LATE AFTN AS WINDS SPIN DOWN...DIMINISHING TO 10-15KTS BY SUNSET WHILE VEERING THRU DUE N. THE OPPOSING WIND/GULFSTREAM DIRECTIONS WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SEAS 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE TO START THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THU-THU NIGHT...HI PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE W ATLC AND GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE THRU THE DAY...VEERING TO DUE E BY SUNSET AND CONTG OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE. && .FIRE WEATHER...MIN RHS AROUND 40 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A SE WIND DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY. DRIER AIR AND CRITICAL MIN RH LEVELS EXPECTED BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 83 66 84 69 / 20 10 40 60 MCO 87 66 88 69 / 10 10 40 60 MLB 84 68 84 72 / 10 10 20 50 VRB 84 67 84 73 / 10 10 20 40 LEE 85 67 87 69 / 10 10 40 60 SFB 87 67 87 70 / 10 10 40 60 ORL 87 68 87 71 / 10 10 40 60 FPR 83 68 84 74 / 10 10 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
424 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... PRE-DAWN...WEAK SURFACE FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AT 07Z WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH BY DAYBREAK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION SETTING UP A WEDGE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY SINCE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR SPILLING SOUTH TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. A LEAD BATCH OF RAINS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION A PRE-CURSOR OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS ON THE WAY TODAY FOR SE GEORGIA. AS THE FRONT SINKS S...MILDER TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO FALL...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER INLAND SE SOUTH CAROLINA. TODAY...QUITE A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO TODAY BUT THE OVERALL PICTURE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS E AND ENE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL ACCOMPANY AN ENERGETIC MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING COPIOUS ELEVATED CONVECTIVE RAINS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPPER FORCING/DIFLUENCE PROGGED TO FOCUS A REGION OF MODERATE RAINS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16 LATER THIS MORNING INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. MANY OF THE 00Z MODELS SPIT OUT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FROM METTER TO STATESBORO AND SAVANNAH/BEAUFORT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF THE OUTLIER MODEL WITH THE LOWEST QPF TALLIES ACROSS OUR REGION...AROUND 1/2 INCH IN GEORGIA. CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA MAYBE KEEPING RAIN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS LOWER FROM ABOUT ST. GEORGE TO JAMESTOWN. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT GIVEN ONGOING UPSTREAM TRENDS AND RAP ANALYSIS...WE FELT THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS WAS WORTH A MENTION S OF I-16. WITH THE WEDGE PATTERN DIGGING IN AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER MUCH OF THE DAY THAN CURRENT READINGS WE ARE SEEING OVERNIGHT WHICH MAKES FOR PROBLEMATIC TEMP FORECASTING AS ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVES AND STEADY READINGS LIKELY THE STORY FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLY WEATHER AT TIMES. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY EXPAND UNDER THE WEDGE INVERSION WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. MOSTLY EXPECT SOME MORNING SHOWERS NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT AND THIS WILL LIKELY PLAY INTO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL MIXING THAT WILL OCCUR. WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN/T BE RULED OUT EITHER AS HELICITY LOOKS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST GA/UPSTATE SC. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS WELL BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EVEN OUTSIDE ANY STORMS IT WILL BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET /AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH AT ABOUT 2K FT/. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SC COAST. LAKE WINDS...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE LAKE SHORES CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAND AREAS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND/OR GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PASSES...THEN SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG WITH FAVORABLE JET FORCING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY BUT ONLY BE AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND INLAND LOCALES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC SETTING UP A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TOWARD DAYBREAK...IF NOT A BIT SOONER AT KSAV WHERE RAINS WILL BE DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR TRENDS TO MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS RAINS BECOME MORE PREVALENT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN STEADIEST/HEAVIER RAINS AT KSAV AND THAT IS WHERE WE INTRO IFR CIGS INITIALLY TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING...MODELS SUGGEST STRATUS SHOULD BUILD-DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND WE HAVE TRENDED IFR IN THE LATER PART OF 06Z TAF CYCLE. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS...AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY VFR WED-FRI. && .MARINE... BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NOSING OUT OF THE PEE DEE INTO THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT UPSTREAM PINCHING AND SURGING HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LESS THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WILL STILL BEGIN AT 12Z THIS MORNING BUT THE ONSET OF BETTER PINCHING WITH THE THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT AND DEVELOPING SURFACE WEDGE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EVEN THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WERE MAINTAINED INTO THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY. THE MESOSCALE GRADIENT LOOKS VERY TRICKY FOR THIS PARTICULAR EVENT AND WE MADE ONLY SLIGHT OVERALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ON AVERAGE. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP LOCALLY WITH ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM AND IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION...LIKELY PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION... MARINE...RJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME DESPITE THE OUTLIER GFS FORECAST OF PRECIP. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR APPARENT ON THE 00Z OUN AND DDC SOUNDINGS IS INDICATIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION...THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...ARE TOO HIGH WITH THEIR SURFACE DEW POINT INITIALIZATIONS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO HRRR AND HOPWRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS SUGGEST ANY PRECIP THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE SPRINKLES...IF INDEED ANYTHING WERE TO EVEN DEVELOP IN THE CWA AT ALL. CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BALANCE LOSS OF FULL SUNSHINE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY SUCH THAT TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. DOWNSTREAM TEMPS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA COULD EXCEED 60 DEGREES. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL MODERATE OVER THIS MORNING`S READINGS WITH MOSTLY 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA. WOLF .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 FORECAST FOCUS ON NICE WARM-UP THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR THE STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE TOO HIGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THIS CURRENT REGIME COMPARED TO REALITY AND HAVE LOWERED VALUES SOMEWHAT THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST WITH THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE TRACKING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR NOW THIS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AS OTHER MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS AS NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S. MID TO LATE WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL PULL MILD TO WARM AIR INTO THE MIDWEST ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY VEGETATION...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR GRASS FIRES. WILL BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT AND INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM. HAASE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 PLEASANTLY VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS PLUS...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY...WITH SOME HOURS OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. ALL CIGS WILL BE 10 KFT OR HIGHER...AS CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS PASS OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH DRY AIR BELOW THIS LEVEL...NO LOWER CLOUDS OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ERVIN && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WOLF SHORT TERM...WOLF LONG TERM...HAASE AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1219 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 THE NORTHLAND WILL BE UNDER GENERAL WAA WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR WAS SHOWING TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE FIRST STRETCHED FROM THE MOOSE LAKE AREA...SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAYWARD. THIS WAS LIGHT RAIN. ANOTHER AREA HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM BIG FORK EAST TO COOK/ORR TO ELY. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE RAIN INITIALLY. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EITHER A WARM LAYER ENOUGH TO MELT ANY ICE OR A COLUMN NOT SATURATED ENOUGH FOR MUCH ICE. THE RAP MAX T OVER THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET SHOWS MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 2C. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN WHETHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FALLS. WE DID EXPAND THE AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT TO INCLUDE MORE OF FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND A PORTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. KPBH WAS 34F OVER 25F AT 02Z. WE DO EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE RATHER LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 SLY FLOW AHEAD OF H85 WEAK SHORT WAVE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE ONSHORE WINDS KEPT READINGS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 30S. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATE QUICKLY THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO NW MINNESOTA. THIS WAVE IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT THERE IS SUFFICIENT WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE BROAD BRUSH SMALL POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 900 PM. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS FOG FOR ALL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND CALM WINDS. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT A BATCH OF -SHRA OR -DZ OVERNIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. LOCATIONS IN THE MN ARROWHEAD MAY SEE GREATER QPF...AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...AS WELL AS A SMALL THREAT FOR VERY LIGHT -FZDZ AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO ICE ACCUM IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY -FZDZ...WITH COOLER READINGS ARRIVING IN THE DRIER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THE LOW POPS AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER OVER THE NRN WISCONSIN AND SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ZONES INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 WE ARE DEFINITELY ENTERING INTO THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE WE START TO SEE A LOT OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND PERHAPS BEYOND IN SOME OF THE TIME PERIODS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF LOWS CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. WE WILL ALSO WRESTLE WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT SMALL QPF BULLSEYES RANDOMLY ACROSS THE REGION. WILL GENERALLY KEEP MOST PERIODS DRY FOR NOW. COULD SEE HAVING TO ADD SOME SMALL POPS AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE AT SOME POINT...BUT FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS AND AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS TO HIT ANY PARTICULAR PRECIPITATION AREAS IN THE GRIDS. HAVE ADDED POPS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WE MAY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO BE ABLE TO HOLD MORE MOISTURE FROM THE SPRING SNOWMELT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK SHOULD BE LARGELY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG...WE COULD SEE SOME READINGS A BIT HIGHER THAN THAT. IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS PEGGING A HIGH TEMP AROUND 70 FOR THE KBRD AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THEY WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD BE A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW POSSIBLY TOWARD THE NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD THEN COOL A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW STRATUS/FOG HAD YET TO FORM AS OF 0430Z...BUT CEILINGS FROM 4500-6000FEET HAVE EXPANDED. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND WE EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP THERE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING AND WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. THE HRRR/RAP AND EVEN THE NAM HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT. THE NAM/GFS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP LOW CEILINGS/VSBYS IN SPOTS SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. WE BACKED OFF ON THE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS CONFIDENCE JUST IS NOT THERE. WE ADDED SOME LLWS TO MOST OF THE TAF SITES INTO THE MORNING HOURS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 30 47 27 44 / 10 20 10 10 INL 29 46 25 44 / 10 20 10 10 BRD 32 51 30 49 / 10 20 10 10 HYR 30 49 27 46 / 10 20 10 10 ASX 29 46 27 43 / 10 10 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...GRANING LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1156 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATES A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...ZONAL FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE PACIFIC NW COAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER EAST...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE SRN STREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN ARIZONA WITH HT FALLS OF 50 TO 130 METERS NOTED FROM EL PASO TO TUSCON. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO. FURTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER NRN MISSOURI. DECENT SRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE SRLY WINDS...ALLOWED FOR DECENT MIXING BY MID MORNING WHICH PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. BY 2 PM CDT...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURE RANGED FROM 57 AT NORTH PLATTE...TO 65 AT VALENTINE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SAGGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SHORTLY BEHIND. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH YET THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM GARDEN COUNTY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY AS INDICATED LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WHERE CAPES OF 100-250 J/KG EXIST. ALSO...THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR BOTH FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA. TONIGHT...THE NAM IS HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN THE NORTH. BELIEVE THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT WORTH MONITORING. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS CO/KS...WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES ESE FROM WY INTO NE LATER IN THE DAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS MODELS ARE GENERATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL RUN FROM AROUND ONEILL TO IMPERIAL TOMORROW AS WELL. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH RATHER LOW CAPES OF ABOUT 100-200 J/KG. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE BEST ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...APPROACHING NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...ABUNDANT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CARRY OVER FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS HAVE NEGATIVE LI`S SUNDAY EVENING WITH UNSTABLE CONDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. INHERITED FCST HAD A MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY EVENING...AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS RIGHT NOW. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL WANE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MILD TEMPS MONDAY MORNING. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FAR WEST TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE FOR LOWS MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WITH EXPECTED MIXING...LOWS ON THE ORDER OF MID 30S IN THE WEST...TO UPPER 30S IN THE EAST SEEM TO BE A BETTER FIT TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE INHERITED FCST. WITH WARMER LOWS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING...THE MENTION OF SNOW WAS SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE ONLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND A SLIVER OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z MONDAY. ON MONDAY...STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH WINDS THIS MORNING...AND IS INDICATIVE OF ADVISORY SPEED WINDS FROM LATE MORNING MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE RAMPED UP WINDS IN THE GRIDS AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE SHORT TERM DESK MENTION THE WIND THREAT IN THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO WIND...VERY COLD H500 TEMPS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE HEATING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST AND HAVE LINGERED THEM THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY AIR...LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETTING UP MONDAY NIGHT AS WARMER H85 AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEY...TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. ON TUESDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH WARMER H85 TEMPS OF 8 TO 14C WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO 10 TO 20 MPH...AS WELL AND MAY GUST UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND FCST HIGHS IN THE 60S MAY PUSH FIRE DANGER TO EXTREME OR NEAR CRITICAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE LONG RANGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR PCPN LATE NEXT WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BE SUPPRESSED AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW DEW POINTS AND WIND...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SRLY STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE LATEST MID RANGE SOLNS ARE INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO WE MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH EJECTS ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK SFC FRONT FROM KOGA TO KVTN DRIFTS SOUTH AND GETS HUNG UP FROM KIML TO KONL ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTN-EVENING. DRY AIR BELOW H700MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR ALL AREAS DURING THE THIS PERIOD. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG LONG TERM...CLB AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 20S...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON MONDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY AND BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. IR SATL CONTS TO SHOW A SLOW EROSION OF LLVL CLOUDS ACRS OUR CWA THIS MORNING...WITH THE RAP SOUNDINGS HANDLING THIS RH THE BEST. THIS SUPPORTS CLOUDS ACRS NORTHERN VT AND THE NEK THRU 15Z TODAY...BEFORE CLRING FINALLY DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING TO ABOUT 875MB TODAY AND INDICATE TEMPS BTWN 0 AND -1C AT THIS LEVEL...ADDING 9 TO 10C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U 40S. HAVE NOTED MAVBTV ONLY 43 FOR TODAY...WL TREND 4 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH INFLUENCE OF FROZEN LAKE WATERS ON WESTERLY FLW. FEEL GUIDANCE MAY THINK SNOW PACK IS STILL ACRS THE CPV...BUT RECENT WARM TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY ERODE SNOW COVERAGE IN THE IMMEDIATE CPV. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT WL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THRU MONDAY. HAVE NOTED IN THE 00Z GFS WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT AND SOME MID LVL RH MOVING ACRS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL COOL INTO THE UPPER TEENS COLDER VALLEYS TO M/U 20S CPV/SLV. WARMING 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIDSLOPE THERMAL BELT WL BE DEVELOPING WITH A RIBBON OF TEMPS IN THE U20S TO MID 30S POSSIBLE BTWN 1500 AND 3000 FT TONIGHT. FCST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WL BE TEMPS...WITH LLVL WAA CONTINUING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING BTWN 0 AND 2C. THINKING WARMEST TEMPS WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV (AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN) AND PARTS OF THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS. IF WE WERE TO MIX TO 85H COMPLETELY HIGHS COULD APPROACH 60F IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT THINKING WITH HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN TEMPS WL FALL JUST SHORT IN OUR WARMER VALLEYS...MAINLY M/U 50S TO U40S/L50S ELSEWHERE. NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SHOW 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS QUICKLY SPREADING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 21Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL 5H VORT AND LLVL WAA. IN ADDITION PWS SURGE BTWN 0.50 AND 0.75 AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. HOWEVER...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING TO OUR WEST AND LATEST 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING PROGGED SE DOWNSLOPING 85H WINDS BTWN 65 AND 75 KNOTS AROUND 06Z TUES. STRONGEST WINDS ARE CLOSELY TIED WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP...WHICH WL LIMIT MIXING BUT STILL COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WL RESULT IN THE TYPICAL TRRN IMPACTED QPF FIELDS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AROUND 0.50 ACRS THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS. ELSEWHERE...QPF ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV WL BE SIMILAR TO OUR LAST EVENT...BTWN 0.10 AND 0.20"...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TWO HEAVIEST QPF FIELDS SPLITTING OUR CWA...EITHER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL DYNAMICS AND BETTER 25H JET OR TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE PWS ARE HIGHER AND NOSE OF LLVL JET ENHANCES THE MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO ISSUES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE RISES FROM SNOW MELT ON MONDAY AND EXPECTED QPF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED ICE JAM OR TWO ACRS OUR NORTHERN RIVERS...OTHERWISE NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. THE DURATION OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE BTWN 3 AND 6 HRS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT QUICKLY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND PRECIP BECMS SCATTERED. SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET WL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 2500 FT...BUT ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED...GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES. TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRNT. EXPECTING ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY BTWN 15Z AND 21Z TUESDAY...BUT OVERALL RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND BEST DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WL CONT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT...EVEN ACRS THE MID/UPPER ELEVATIONS...SO RIVERS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 355 AM EDT SUNDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER UPSLOPE FAVORED NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH AND GUSTY. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH BRISK RETURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 25 TO 35 DEGREES...BUT HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER BY 12Z. EXCEPTION WILL BE SLK WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TILL ABOUT 10Z. DURING SUNDAY...LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME SKC BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WNW 8-15 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN WEST 8-15 KTS SUNDAY. GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS SUNDAY EVENING WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY INTO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK. 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1136 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF SWIFT CURRENT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SNAKING INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT IN MOUNTRAIL COUNTY MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING WITH TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED IN NORTHEAST MONTANA. BOWMAN RADAR WAS INDICATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BUT BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE PRECIPITATION APPEARS ALOFT AND NOT REACHING THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL IN THE NORTH. THE HRRR IS ADVERTISING POTENTIAL OF FOG INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. WITH SATURATION HAVING ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED THERE AND A CALM WIND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER RUGBY...FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG INTO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE ABOVE. OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERNIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 LATE EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER/TEMPS. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN PERSISTING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...DUE TO FAVORABLE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LIGHT WINDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 EARLY EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS. LOWERED MINS TONIGHT SLIGHTLY BASED ON IMPACTS OF MOST SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER DURING THE DAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX CAN`T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE SHOWER CHANCES YET THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN ON SUNDAY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM AROUND GARRISON AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THERE HAS BEEN GROUND TRUTH WITH SHOWERS REPORTED AT KMOT...KMIB AND K08D...AND 0.01 AT KMOT. SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS AREA AS IT MOVES EAST...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. ANYWAY...KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA COULD KEEP CHANCES LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH SOME POPS ALREADY THERE...WILL KEEP THE MENTION GOING...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE MAKING IT HARD FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AFTER EARLY EVENING. FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH. MOST FAVORED AREAS LOOK TO BE OVER AND NEAR THE SNOW PACK WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTEST. EXPECT A LITTLE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST...THUS WILL LIMIT PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE EAST CENTRAL...OVER SNOW PACK. IF WINDS DO DIMINISH MORE IN THE SOUTHWEST...COULD SEE FOG HERE AS WELL...WITH DEEPEST SNOW REMAINING OVER THIS AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING OVER THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE GREATER...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER MOST AREAS AND INCREASING LAPSE RATES WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH...THUS KEPT THE PREVIOUS BROAD BRUSH FOR MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE...KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM. FIRST WE WILL SEE A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL CANADIAN HIGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REGARDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...50S MONDAY...WARMING TO 55-65 TUESDAY. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS AND APPROACHING 70 FAR SOUTH. THEN 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH 45-55 FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 AN ISOLD WINTRY MIX IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT THE CHANCE OF ANY IMPACTS TO KISN/KMOT ARE LOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. KBIS/KJMS ARE FAVORED FOR OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH RECENT SNOWMELT AND LIGHT WINDS...SO HAVE ADDED AN EARLY MORNING TEMPO GROUPS. LATER SUNDAY MORNING...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES AT KISN/KMOT. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
351 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Latest satellite imagery showing low clouds have spread north across all of West Central Texas. Aloft, upper level trough was located over the southwest U.S., with trough axis along the Arizona/New Mexico border. Ahead of the trough, weak large-scale ascent was over Texas as evident by a few light showers over the eastern half of our area. For today, as the upper level system moves east into the Southern Plains, mid and upper level forcing will increase across West Central Texas. Showers will become more widespread especially across the eastern half of the area. The HRRR convective allowing model indicates activity picking up over the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country during the morning hours(after 10Z). Have the highest POPS (likely to high end chance) across the eastern 1/3 of the area, decreasing to slight chance southwest of a Sterling City to San Angelo to Junction line as forcing will be much weaker. The mid level lapse rates will increase to 7 to 8 DEG C/KM later today so isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A couple of storms will have the potential to produce small hail, gusty winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Rainfall amounts will average 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch, with the higher amounts across eastern 1/3 of the area. A few areas like the Northern Edwards Plateau will not even receive a tenth of an inch. Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s across the western Concho Valley and along the I-10 corridor. For tonight, the best large-scale ascent will be located east of West Central Texas. Will keep the slight chance POPS going across mainly the Big Country, otherwise going with a dry forecast. Lows will be in the 40s. .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) On Monday, we may have some lingering showers around the area as a shortwave currently moving southeast into the Pacific Northwest out of southwestern Canada will move through the main upper level trough before it moves east of the area. Have kept the lower end slight chance PoPs going for the area. If any precipitation occurs, the main mode would likely be showers again, but an isolated thunderstorm or two would still be possible as cold temperatures associated with the upper level low will help increase lapse rates aloft. In addition, northerly flow at the surface will bring in drier air resulting in an inverted V soundings for southern areas, which could lead to gusty winds at the surface underneath any showers, virga, or thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with this activity. Tuesday through the middle of the week, we can expect dry weather, and warming temperatures. Dry northwest flow aloft Tuesday into Wednesday will be replaced by low amplitude ridging, or zonal flow Thursday and Friday. Gulf moisture will move back into the area by the second half of the week as well with persistent southerly low level flow. After Friday, models disagree on timing and strength of another possible trough moving through the area, so have made very minimal changes to the forecast beyond Day 4. && .FIRE WEATHER... With cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation through Monday for most of the area, fire weather conditions will not be a concern for most of the area. However, by Tuesday, rain chances move out, and temperatures begin to warm back up. Elevated to near critical conditions will be possible Tuesday through the end of next week, and especially on Wednesday and Thursday for areas west of an Abilene to Sonora line, as southerly winds pick up to 15 to 20 mph, and relative humidity values fall to 15 to 20 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 60 46 70 41 73 / 40 20 20 5 0 San Angelo 69 46 72 41 77 / 20 10 20 0 0 Junction 71 46 73 39 78 / 20 10 20 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 21/20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1152 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014 .AVIATION... MESSY UPPER PATTERN ALONG WITH WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST TOWARD MORNING SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AFTER 9Z. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE BRINGS WARM SECTOR FURTHER INLAND THAN EARLIER RUNS. ADJUSTED WINDS ACCORDINGLY IN UPCOMING TAFS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/POSITIONING AND AREAL PRECIP COVERAGE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THINK HRRR HAS HANDLED SHORT TERM TRENDS BEST AND ANTICIPATE SOME DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT OVERALL BEST COVERAGE ACROSS N/NE PARTS OF SE TX ON SUNDAY. OIL RIGS OFFSHORE REPORTING VISBYS GENERALLY < 2NM IN SEA FOG SO LOWERED COASTAL VISIBYS POST WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU IN THE LATE AFTN & EVNG HOURS BRINGING SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. 47 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014/ A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE... BOUNDARY ANALYZED JUST ONSHORE AT 02Z. A VEERING WIND WITH HEIGHT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER SOUTHWESTERN MOISTURE OVER OUR INLAND COOLER DRIER AIR MASS AND GENERATED EITHER DRIZZLE OR LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY MORNING HOURS AS WEAK VORTICITY RIDES OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS OVER THE COMING HOURS AND PROVIDES MORE LIFT. 25HJET STREAK HEADING OUT OF THE BIG BEND AT 00Z THAT MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO BETTER OVERALL RAIN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET POSITIONING ITSELF DEAD- CENTER OVER EASTERN TEXAS SO THESE MORE DIFFULENT UPPER LEVELS WILL ENHANCE THIS GENTLE WAA PATTERN LIFT. 7-8H WARM LAYER WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON... PROFILES EXPECTED TO WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS (AS MID-LAYERS STAY WARM) TO POSSIBLY TAP INTO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING SUNDAY PM...INCREASING STORM THREAT/COVERAGE. OVERCAST AND PRECIPITATION WILL MAINTAIN A LOWER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM SUNDAY MORNING`S MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO THE AFTERNOON`S UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. INLAND PATCHY FOG WITH LOW CEILINGS...POCKETS OF MORE DENSE SEA FOG...THROUGH AN EARLY MONDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 56 67 52 70 48 / 50 60 20 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 58 74 54 72 51 / 40 70 20 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 62 73 58 72 56 / 40 60 20 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
904 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 901 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 ADJUSTED MOST POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 OUR CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH NM...AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY. SOME WEAK ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN RANGES...WHILE SCT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN PLAINS. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW EXTENSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THIS MORNING OVER OUR SERN CORNER...THE NAM HOLDS ON TO EXTENSIVE PRECIP WHILE THE HRRR DRIES THINGS OUT PRETTY QUICKLY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO DRY WHILE THE NAM AND WRF MAY BE OVERDONE. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS OVER PROWERS...BACA...AND ERN LAS ANIMAS THIS MORNING...BUT AMTS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY 6000-6500 FEET AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 7K FOOT RANGE TODAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AND H7 TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AROUND MINUS 4 TO MINUS 8 OR SO BY MONDAY MORNING. BUT...PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO LOW ELEVATION SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT. OVER THE MTS...PERSISTENT SHSN CONTINUE TODAY...AND WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY PEAKS. AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE MORNING ZONE PACKAGE. ANOTHER TWO TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OVERNIGHT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME COLD MORNING LOWS LATER TONIGHT. ROSE .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 ON MONDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WL BE FOUND OVR THE AREA. A PASSING DISTURBANCE AND SOME LINGERING MSTR WL MEAN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MON WL LIKELY BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. UPR RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED OVR THE AREA FOR TUE AND WED...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS BOTH DAYS. THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED OVR THE AREA ON THU AS AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BACKS INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS ON THU...BRINGING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INCREASE IN MSTR OVR THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS OVR THE MTNS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LOWER EAST SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTNS WHERE THE UPSLOPE WL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS A WEAK UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPR TROF...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM BRINGING PCPN AND COOLER TEMPS TO MOST OF THE AREA THRU THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MUCH OF SERN CO. AFTER A SHORT LULL THIS MORNING...WILL SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY PICK UP AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...THEN WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. FZG LEVELS WILL GENERALLY 7500-8000 FEET TODAY...AND THE MTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSCD WITH SCT-NRMS SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS VC THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN THE TAFS. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE AT KALS...WHICH SAW SOME LIGHT SHSN OVERNIGHT...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PC MORNING FG OR BR FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ROSE && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...PETERSEN SHORT TERM...ROSE LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
729 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NEAR DAYBREAK...UPDATED TO LOWER SOME OF MORNING RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAMPTON TO CHARLESTON. LATEST NAM/HRRR SUGGESTS RAINS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING AS THE DEEP LAYERED AIR MASS IS DRIER AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW FORECASTED VALUES AT 11Z. TODAY...QUITE A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO BUT THE OVERALL PICTURE REMAINS UNCHANGED AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS E AND ENE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL ACCOMPANY AN ENERGETIC MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING COPIOUS ELEVATED CONVECTIVE RAINS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPPER FORCING/DIFLUENCE PROGGED TO FOCUS A REGION OF MODERATE RAINS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16 LATER THIS MORNING INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. MANY OF THE 00Z MODELS SPIT OUT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FROM METTER TO STATESBORO AND SAVANNAH/BEAUFORT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF THE OUTLIER MODEL WITH THE LOWEST QPF TALLIES ACROSS OUR REGION...AROUND 1/2 INCH IN GEORGIA. CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS TODAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA MAYBE KEEPING RAIN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS LOWER FROM ABOUT ST. GEORGE TO JAMESTOWN. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT GIVEN ONGOING UPSTREAM TRENDS AND RAP ANALYSIS...WE FELT THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED TSTMS WAS WORTH A MENTION S OF I-16. WITH THE WEDGE PATTERN DIGGING IN AND PLENTY OF RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER MUCH OF THE DAY THAN CURRENT READINGS WE ARE SEEING OVERNIGHT WHICH MAKES FOR PROBLEMATIC TEMP FORECASTING AS ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVES AND STEADY READINGS LIKELY THE STORY FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLY WEATHER AT TIMES. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY EXPAND UNDER THE WEDGE INVERSION WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE SE GEORGIA COAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. MOSTLY EXPECT SOME MORNING SHOWERS NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT AND THIS WILL LIKELY PLAY INTO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL MIXING THAT WILL OCCUR. WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN/T BE RULED OUT EITHER AS HELICITY LOOKS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST GA/UPSTATE SC. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS WELL BEFORE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EVEN OUTSIDE ANY STORMS IT WILL BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL JET /AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH AT ABOUT 2K FT/. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SC COAST. LAKE WINDS...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE LAKE SHORES CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAND AREAS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND/OR GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PASSES...THEN SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG WITH FAVORABLE JET FORCING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY BUT ONLY BE AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND INLAND LOCALES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC SETTING UP A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TODAY...WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN SUBSTANTIAL RAINS AT KSAV. WE MAINTAINED SIMILAR TAF TRENDS TO MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AS RAINS BECOME MORE PREVALENT. LATEST MODELS SUGGESTING KCHS MAY BE SLOW TO BOTH PRECIPITATE...BUT ALREADY WE ARE SEEING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING. WE TRENDED KCHS A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO PREVAILING RAINS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRATUS SHOULD BUILD-DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND WE HAVE TRENDED IFR IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KSAV. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS...AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY VFR WED-FRI. && .MARINE... BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NOSING OUT OF THE PEE DEE INTO THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT UPSTREAM PINCHING AND SURGING HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LESS THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WILL STILL BEGIN AT 12Z THIS MORNING BUT THE ONSET OF BETTER PINCHING WITH THE THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT AND DEVELOPING SURFACE WEDGE MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EVEN THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WERE MAINTAINED INTO THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY. THE MESOSCALE GRADIENT LOOKS VERY TRICKY FOR THIS PARTICULAR EVENT AND WE MADE ONLY SLIGHT OVERALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ON AVERAGE. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP LOCALLY WITH ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM AND IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION...LIKELY PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION... MARINE...RJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
901 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 .UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AREA WEB CAMS SHOWING LIGHT SNOWFALL BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN MONTANA. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER TO GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF SHORTWAVE STILL LOOKS TO MOSTLY EXIT EASTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING THOUGH LATEST NAM RUN HOLDING ON TO WEAK POCKETS OF QPF ALONG DIVIDE AND WYOMING BORDER AFTER 06Z. WINDS STILL MAIN CONCERN TODAY THOUGH EVEN RECENT GUIDANCE BACKING OFF BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NUDGED WINDS TOWARD LATEST HRRR WITH GOOD REPRESENTATION OF CANYON OUTFLOW FROM CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS...STILL WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. REMAINDER OF GRID PACKAGE REASONABLE FOR TODAY. NO OTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. DMH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING SOUTH TODAY AND EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AS WELL AND EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AS WELL BEHIND FRONT MAINLY IN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THINK FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL STAY UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS IN MOST AREAS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS NOR NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY. GK LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE REGION WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE CNTRL AND NE MOUNTAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MOIST WNW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE EITHER FRIDAY (GFS) OR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY (ECMWF) WHICH LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH THE GFS FAVORING A BACKDOOR TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE DAKOTAS AND BANKING UP AGAINST THE MONTANA/WYOMING DIVIDE IN A NE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE BACKDOOR TROUGH AND CONSEQUENTLY IS ADVERTISING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS SRN IDAHO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD AND DRY NORTH FLOW SPREADS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. PREFERENCE HERE IS THE WARMER/DRIER GFS. HUSTON AVIATION...A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED DIGGING SE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FAVORING THE ERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE SHEARS THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST EDGES INLAND. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINAL SITES...BELIEVE KIDA/KPIH AND KBYI MAY BE MOST AT RISK FOR THIS WITH UPSLOPE WNW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH KSUN NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE MIX. MESO-SCALE WRF MODEL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CONVERGENCE SNOW EVENT WORKING OUT OF THE ARCO REGION AROUND 19Z AND SPREADING INTO KIDA AND KPIH 20-23Z WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY/LOWER CIGS. ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY MAY BOOST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE CONVERGENCE AREA. HUSTON && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
621 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME DESPITE THE OUTLIER GFS FORECAST OF PRECIP. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR APPARENT ON THE 00Z OUN AND DDC SOUNDINGS IS INDICATIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION...THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...ARE TOO HIGH WITH THEIR SURFACE DEW POINT INITIALIZATIONS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO HRRR AND HOPWRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS SUGGEST ANY PRECIP THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE SPRINKLES...IF INDEED ANYTHING WERE TO EVEN DEVELOP IN THE CWA AT ALL. CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BALANCE LOSS OF FULL SUNSHINE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY SUCH THAT TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. DOWNSTREAM TEMPS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA COULD EXCEED 60 DEGREES. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL MODERATE OVER THIS MORNING`S READINGS WITH MOSTLY 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA. WOLF .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 FORECAST FOCUS ON NICE WARM-UP THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR THE STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE TOO HIGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THIS CURRENT REGIME COMPARED TO REALITY AND HAVE LOWERED VALUES SOMEWHAT THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST WITH THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE TRACKING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR NOW THIS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AS OTHER MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS AS NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S. MID TO LATE WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL PULL MILD TO WARM AIR INTO THE MIDWEST ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY VEGETATION...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR GRASS FIRES. WILL BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT AND INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM. HAASE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THAT TIME. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS IS PUSHING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BUT NO IMPACT TO AIRPORT OPS IS EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL EQUAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 10 KTS TODAY...THEN DROP BELOW THAT THRESHOLD AND BACK SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WOLF && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WOLF SHORT TERM...WOLF LONG TERM...HAASE AVIATION...WOLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 20S...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON MONDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 710 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO MENTION FLURRIES ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MTNS THRU 15Z TODAY. ALSO...HAVE INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS...BASED ON LATEST IR SATL PICS. THESE LLVL CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HRS...WITH THE LAST TO CLR EXTREME NORTHEAST VT. STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY AND BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRES. IR SATL CONTS TO SHOW A SLOW EROSION OF LLVL CLOUDS ACRS OUR CWA THIS MORNING...WITH THE RAP SOUNDINGS HANDLING THIS RH THE BEST. THIS SUPPORTS CLOUDS ACRS NORTHERN VT AND THE NEK THRU 15Z TODAY...BEFORE CLRING FINALLY DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING TO ABOUT 875MB TODAY AND INDICATE TEMPS BTWN 0 AND -1C AT THIS LEVEL...ADDING 9 TO 10C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U 40S. HAVE NOTED MAVBTV ONLY 43 FOR TODAY...WL TREND 4 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH INFLUENCE OF FROZEN LAKE WATERS ON WESTERLY FLW. FEEL GUIDANCE MAY THINK SNOW PACK IS STILL ACRS THE CPV...BUT RECENT WARM TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY ERODE SNOW COVERAGE IN THE IMMEDIATE CPV. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT WL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THRU MONDAY. HAVE NOTED IN THE 00Z GFS WEAK ELONGATED 5H VORT AND SOME MID LVL RH MOVING ACRS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL COOL INTO THE UPPER TEENS COLDER VALLEYS TO M/U 20S CPV/SLV. WARMING 925MB TO 850MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIDSLOPE THERMAL BELT WL BE DEVELOPING WITH A RIBBON OF TEMPS IN THE U20S TO MID 30S POSSIBLE BTWN 1500 AND 3000 FT TONIGHT. FCST CHALLENGE ON MONDAY WL BE TEMPS...WITH LLVL WAA CONTINUING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING BTWN 0 AND 2C. THINKING WARMEST TEMPS WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV (AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN) AND PARTS OF THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS. IF WE WERE TO MIX TO 85H COMPLETELY HIGHS COULD APPROACH 60F IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT THINKING WITH HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN TEMPS WL FALL JUST SHORT IN OUR WARMER VALLEYS...MAINLY M/U 50S TO U40S/L50S ELSEWHERE. NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SHOW 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS QUICKLY SPREADING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 21Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL 5H VORT AND LLVL WAA. IN ADDITION PWS SURGE BTWN 0.50 AND 0.75 AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. HOWEVER...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING TO OUR WEST AND LATEST 00Z NAM/GFS SHOWING PROGGED SE DOWNSLOPING 85H WINDS BTWN 65 AND 75 KNOTS AROUND 06Z TUES. STRONGEST WINDS ARE CLOSELY TIED WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP...WHICH WL LIMIT MIXING BUT STILL COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WL RESULT IN THE TYPICAL TRRN IMPACTED QPF FIELDS WITH HIGHEST VALUES AROUND 0.50 ACRS THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS. ELSEWHERE...QPF ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV WL BE SIMILAR TO OUR LAST EVENT...BTWN 0.10 AND 0.20"...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TWO HEAVIEST QPF FIELDS SPLITTING OUR CWA...EITHER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL DYNAMICS AND BETTER 25H JET OR TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE PWS ARE HIGHER AND NOSE OF LLVL JET ENHANCES THE MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO ISSUES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE RISES FROM SNOW MELT ON MONDAY AND EXPECTED QPF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED ICE JAM OR TWO ACRS OUR NORTHERN RIVERS...OTHERWISE NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. THE DURATION OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE BTWN 3 AND 6 HRS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT QUICKLY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND PRECIP BECMS SCATTERED. SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET WL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 2500 FT...BUT ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED...GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES. TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRNT. EXPECTING ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY BTWN 15Z AND 21Z TUESDAY...BUT OVERALL RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND BEST DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WL CONT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT...EVEN ACRS THE MID/UPPER ELEVATIONS...SO RIVERS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 355 AM EDT SUNDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER UPSLOPE FAVORED NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH AND GUSTY. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH BRISK RETURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 25 TO 35 DEGREES...BUT HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...EXPECT BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER BY 12Z. EXCEPTION WILL BE SLK WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TILL ABOUT 10Z. DURING SUNDAY...LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME SKC BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WNW 8-15 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN WEST 8-15 KTS SUNDAY. GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS SUNDAY EVENING WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY INTO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK. 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2014 .UPDATE... The forecast was updated to increase POPs slightly across central and western counties this afternoon and to lower max temps a few degrees. Spotty light rain showers continue across mainly the Big Country late this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms were also entering extreme western portions of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Latest HRRR/3km WRF data shows this area of precipitation moving east across the area this afternoon. Mid level lapse rates (700-500mb) will increase to 7 to 8 DEG C/KM this afternoon, so will continue to keep a mention of thunderstorms in the forecast. Severe weather is not anticipated but a few of the stronger cells will be capable of producing small hail and gusty winds. Abundant cloud cover and precip will hold temperatures down across much of the area this afternoon with highs mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Some drier air will enter southwest counties later this afternoon with some partial clearing expected. This should allow temperatures to reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across this area. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Widespread stratus will continue across West Central Texas through much of the next 24 hours. As a result, MVFR/IFR CIGS are expected at the terminals. There may be some improvement this afternoon at the KSOA and KSJT terminals due to low level westerly flow bringing low level dry air, and have gone with VFR conditions. Low clouds will return to much of the area late tonight. An upper level trough will bring increasing lift, resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Have continued VCSH at the KABI and KBBD terminals for today. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Latest satellite imagery showing low clouds have spread north across all of West Central Texas. Aloft, upper level trough was located over the southwest U.S., with trough axis along the Arizona/New Mexico border. Ahead of the trough, weak large-scale ascent was over Texas as evident by a few light showers over the eastern half of our area. For today, as the upper level system moves east into the Southern Plains, mid and upper level forcing will increase across West Central Texas. Showers will become more widespread especially across the eastern half of the area. The HRRR convective allowing model indicates activity picking up over the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country during the morning hours(after 10Z). Have the highest POPS (likely to high end chance) across the eastern 1/3 of the area, decreasing to slight chance southwest of a Sterling City to San Angelo to Junction line as forcing will be much weaker. The mid level lapse rates will increase to 7 to 8 DEG C/KM later today so isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A couple of storms will have the potential to produce small hail, gusty winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Rainfall amounts will average 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch, with the higher amounts across eastern 1/3 of the area. A few areas like the Northern Edwards Plateau will not even receive a tenth of an inch. Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s across the western Concho Valley and along the I-10 corridor. For tonight, the best large-scale ascent will be located east of West Central Texas. Will keep the slight chance POPS going across mainly the Big Country, otherwise going with a dry forecast. Lows will be in the 40s. LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) On Monday, we may have some lingering showers around the area as a shortwave currently moving southeast into the Pacific Northwest out of southwestern Canada will move through the main upper level trough before it moves east of the area. Have kept the lower end slight chance PoPs going for the area. If any precipitation occurs, the main mode would likely be showers again, but an isolated thunderstorm or two would still be possible as cold temperatures associated with the upper level low will help increase lapse rates aloft. In addition, northerly flow at the surface will bring in drier air resulting in an inverted V soundings for southern areas, which could lead to gusty winds at the surface underneath any showers, virga, or thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with this activity. Tuesday through the middle of the week, we can expect dry weather, and warming temperatures. Dry northwest flow aloft Tuesday into Wednesday will be replaced by low amplitude ridging, or zonal flow Thursday and Friday. Gulf moisture will move back into the area by the second half of the week as well with persistent southerly low level flow. After Friday, models disagree on timing and strength of another possible trough moving through the area, so have made very minimal changes to the forecast beyond Day 4. FIRE WEATHER... With cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation through Monday for most of the area, fire weather conditions will not be a concern for most of the area. However, by Tuesday, rain chances move out, and temperatures begin to warm back up. Elevated to near critical conditions will be possible Tuesday through the end of next week, and especially on Wednesday and Thursday for areas west of an Abilene to Sonora line, as southerly winds pick up to 15 to 20 mph, and relative humidity values fall to 15 to 20 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 60 46 70 41 73 / 50 20 20 5 0 San Angelo 67 46 72 41 77 / 30 10 20 0 0 Junction 68 46 73 39 78 / 20 10 20 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
659 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 .UPDATE... 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS MUCAPE ABOUT DOUBLE WHAT WAS FORECAST... NEAR 700 J/KG. LATEST RAP NOW INDICATING AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. EARLY RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM AMPLE INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE WITH ALREADY ONE SEVERE STORM IN BOSQUE COUNTY THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHOW THE NEW WATCH AND MENTION A THREAT FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS...PERHAPS UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN OTHER PRODUCTS. AGAIN STRONGEST STORMS AND BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS MORNING...AND NO CHANGE WITH THAT THINKING. TR.92 && .AVIATION... PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL PREVAIL VCTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL HANDLE EACH BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A TEMPO TO TRY TO PIN DOWN THE BEST TIMING OF ACTIVITY. LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL JUST MENTION -RA/SHRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WACO WILL LIKELY RECEIVE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE MAIN FORCING ALOFT REACHES THE REGION. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AFTER 14-15Z. HAMPSHIRE && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW ENCROACHING UPON THE REGION AND AREA VWPS SHOW 850MB WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASED TO 30KT DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AS RICH GULF MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTHWARD AND OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH TEXAS TODAY AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES THE CATALYST FOR PARCELS TO ACHIEVE THEIR LFC. THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGH THETA-E AIR COINCIDENT WITH STEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL YIELD 200-600 J/KG OF CAPE WITH PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 850MB. THE HIGHEST MUCAPE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE GREATEST TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY GETS EXHAUSTED...WITH PRIMARILY SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A DRY SLOT WILL ROTATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP END MOST OF THE CONVECTION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WRAP-AROUND RAIN MAY WORK BACK INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING AS A TROWAL DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL LOW THAT TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER. ALL RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WHERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 40S DURING PERIODS OF RAIN THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TOMORROW PUTTING NORTH TEXAS IN A REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE. THIS DOWNGLIDE SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUD COVER...WITH BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST EXPECTED BY NOON. USUALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THESE TROUGHS WE ARE IN REGION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DROPPING A STRONG POCKET OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL OCCUR...ALL SIGNS THAT FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST. 500MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR -25C...WHICH IS EXTRAORDINARILY COLD FOR APRIL. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S WILL YIELD 500-1000J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HI-RES WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AS A RESULT. WHILE CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOK A LITTLE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODES AT THIS TIME...THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH FREEZING LEVELS DROPPING TO 8000FT WOULD SUPPORT A SMALL HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER IF MORE SUNSHINE DID OCCUR MONDAY...THE STRONGER HEATING WOULD INCREASE THE SUPERCELL/HAIL THREAT. FURTHERMORE BECAUSE WE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY...ANY SUPERCELL STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY BE LEFT MOVING OR ANTI-CYCLONIC. RAPID CLEARING WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THIS SHOULD MIX STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE TUESDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE LIMITED BY COOLISH TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR 70 DEGREES...AND WHAT SHOULD BE MOIST FUELS FROM THE FORECASTED RAINFALL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DIE OFF AND THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES OVER NORTH TEXAS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S EAST TO UPPER 40S WEST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS SUNNY AND VERY NICE WITH HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR 80. SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS WELL...BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION. EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST/STRONGEST AND BRINGS IT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS IT AND BRINGS IT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TEMPERED BY A STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION...AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT SITS OVER THE GULF MID-LATE WEEK. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF MORE THAN THE GFS...AND BRING LOW POPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE A STRONG FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND BEHIND IT. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 54 48 65 44 71 / 100 40 30 20 0 WACO, TX 57 48 67 46 72 / 90 20 30 20 0 PARIS, TX 54 47 62 45 66 / 100 60 30 20 0 DENTON, TX 54 46 64 43 70 / 100 40 30 20 0 MCKINNEY, TX 54 47 64 44 68 / 100 40 30 20 0 DALLAS, TX 54 48 65 45 71 / 100 40 30 20 0 TERRELL, TX 54 48 64 44 69 / 100 30 30 20 0 CORSICANA, TX 56 49 65 45 69 / 100 20 20 20 0 TEMPLE, TX 59 47 68 45 73 / 80 20 20 20 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 54 45 67 42 73 / 90 30 30 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
612 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Widespread stratus will continue across West Central Texas through much of the next 24 hours. As a result, MVFR/IFR CIGS are expected at the terminals. There may be some improvement this afternoon at the KSOA and KSJT terminals due to low level westerly flow bringing low level dry air, and have gone with VFR conditions. Low clouds will return to much of the area late tonight. An upper level trough will bring increasing lift, resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Have continued VCSH at the KABI and KBBD terminals for today. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Latest satellite imagery showing low clouds have spread north across all of West Central Texas. Aloft, upper level trough was located over the southwest U.S., with trough axis along the Arizona/New Mexico border. Ahead of the trough, weak large-scale ascent was over Texas as evident by a few light showers over the eastern half of our area. For today, as the upper level system moves east into the Southern Plains, mid and upper level forcing will increase across West Central Texas. Showers will become more widespread especially across the eastern half of the area. The HRRR convective allowing model indicates activity picking up over the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country during the morning hours(after 10Z). Have the highest POPS (likely to high end chance) across the eastern 1/3 of the area, decreasing to slight chance southwest of a Sterling City to San Angelo to Junction line as forcing will be much weaker. The mid level lapse rates will increase to 7 to 8 DEG C/KM later today so isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A couple of storms will have the potential to produce small hail, gusty winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Rainfall amounts will average 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch, with the higher amounts across eastern 1/3 of the area. A few areas like the Northern Edwards Plateau will not even receive a tenth of an inch. Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s across the western Concho Valley and along the I-10 corridor. For tonight, the best large-scale ascent will be located east of West Central Texas. Will keep the slight chance POPS going across mainly the Big Country, otherwise going with a dry forecast. Lows will be in the 40s. LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) On Monday, we may have some lingering showers around the area as a shortwave currently moving southeast into the Pacific Northwest out of southwestern Canada will move through the main upper level trough before it moves east of the area. Have kept the lower end slight chance PoPs going for the area. If any precipitation occurs, the main mode would likely be showers again, but an isolated thunderstorm or two would still be possible as cold temperatures associated with the upper level low will help increase lapse rates aloft. In addition, northerly flow at the surface will bring in drier air resulting in an inverted V soundings for southern areas, which could lead to gusty winds at the surface underneath any showers, virga, or thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with this activity. Tuesday through the middle of the week, we can expect dry weather, and warming temperatures. Dry northwest flow aloft Tuesday into Wednesday will be replaced by low amplitude ridging, or zonal flow Thursday and Friday. Gulf moisture will move back into the area by the second half of the week as well with persistent southerly low level flow. After Friday, models disagree on timing and strength of another possible trough moving through the area, so have made very minimal changes to the forecast beyond Day 4. FIRE WEATHER... With cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation through Monday for most of the area, fire weather conditions will not be a concern for most of the area. However, by Tuesday, rain chances move out, and temperatures begin to warm back up. Elevated to near critical conditions will be possible Tuesday through the end of next week, and especially on Wednesday and Thursday for areas west of an Abilene to Sonora line, as southerly winds pick up to 15 to 20 mph, and relative humidity values fall to 15 to 20 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 60 46 70 41 73 / 40 20 20 5 0 San Angelo 69 46 72 41 77 / 20 10 20 0 0 Junction 71 46 73 39 78 / 20 10 20 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1011 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA BUT SO FAR ONLY HITTING THE GROUND IN CENTRAL IOWA. MESO MODELS KEEP MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A FEW SHOWERS CLIPPING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. MAY ADD LOW POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS TO OVERCOME IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS. BETTER INSTABILITY IS NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AND THE RAP INDICATES AROUND 50 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE FAR NW CWA. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE IN THE WEST...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM FOND DU LAC TO JANESVILLE. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. A LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG 250 MB JET MAX OF 120 KNOTS MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THIS BRINGS MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE ILLINOIS BORDER REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SATURATION DOES OCCUR AT 700 MB...BUT 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS RATHER WEAK AND THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW 800 MB ARE DRY. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH ONLY 4 JOULES/KG. THEREFORE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCAS/VIRGA MAINLY WEST OF MADISON BUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS QUESTIONABLE. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE 925/850 AND 700 MB LEVELS TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM PUSHING INLAND LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. NAM/ECMWF KEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS TRY TO CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THEY ARE A BIT SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE NAM/ECMWF LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS. PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM/ECMWF TRACKS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS STILL TRY TO BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY WITH WEAK TO MODEST LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE/DEFORMATION ZONE. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH SOMEWHAT STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SEEN IN FAR WESTERN AREAS. LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST GOING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT LOWER END POPS GOING FOR NOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UNTIL MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE QUESTIONABLE...ESPECIALLY ON NAM...WITH ANY MOIST AREAS SHALLOW AND NOT VERY PERSISTENT. COULD END UP BEING SPRINKLES OR VIRGA DURING THIS PERIOD IF BETTER MOISTURE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE. QUIET WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE...WITH AROUND 50 WELL INLAND. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S INLAND...WITH A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKE. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE WARMER NEAR THE LAKE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW. COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. NEXT ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN TRIES TO SET UP FOR SATURDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING VARYING LOCATIONS OF LOW PRESSURE AND OTHER FEATURES. FOR NOW...USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE FROM PUSHING INLAND LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATER TODAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MARINE... LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SM/DDV TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
950 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 UPDATED FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH MN. RAP MODEL BRINGS IN A 0-3KM MUCAPE POOL OF 500-1000 J/KG BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RAP DEW POINTS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE IN THE M-U40S...BUT MODIFIED CAPE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S WOULD STILL YIELD 300-800J/KG. THIS IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING. OTHERWISE...MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TODAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 50S NORTH OF I-94...TO A FEW LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-90. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NATION/S MID- SECTION...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM/S DEFORMATION REGION OF PCPN NORTH-WEST OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SUBTLE FEATURES THAT COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME PCPN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING...WITH SOME MINOR RIPPLES MOVING DOWN THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAKES TIMING/PLACEMENT OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES PROBLEMATIC...AND WILL LIKELY USE BROAD STROKES WITH THE CHANCES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DUE HINT THAT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL WORK SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...DROPPING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER THAT NIGHT. THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKER SIGNALS...COULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL SLATED TO BE MORE ZONAL TO RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A RELATIVELY MILD AIR MASS. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES VIA THE ECMWF STILL HOVER AROUND +1. IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEKS. THAT SAID...ITS NOT GOING TO BE PCPN FREE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA MID WEEK...STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION AS IT PASSES WED NIGHT/THU. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WED NIGHT...AND THE GFS/EC SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD DRIVE ACROSS IT. SOME LOW/MID LEVEL QG CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. SATURATION COULD BE AN ISSUE AS TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY TRENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION...WHERE SATURATION IS DEEPER. THE WEEKEND IS SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TAKES A NORTHEAST TRACK TOWARD THE REGION. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE PREV ECMWF RUN...WITH THE EC A BIT FASTER. HOWEVER...THE 06.00Z EC IS MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS THINKING. WITH THE GULF OPEN AND A STRONG FEED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...A BROAD AREA OF PCPN LOOKS LIKELY...WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN FALLING ON THE REGION. IF REALIZED...WOULD LIKELY SEE RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS. GOING TO SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR NOW. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8K FEET THROUGH 07.08Z...AND THEN CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO 5K FEET. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM 06.22Z THROUGH 07.12Z. THE LAMP DATA SUGGESTS THAT FG WILL DEVELOP AT KRST AFTER 07.08Z. HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE AND WINDS REMAINING ABOVE 5 KNOTS...JUST DO NOT SEE THIS OCCURRING...SO DID NOT INCLUDE IT INT THE TAF. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DAS SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1134 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 901 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 ADJUSTED MOST POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 OUR CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH NM...AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY. SOME WEAK ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN RANGES...WHILE SCT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN PLAINS. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW EXTENSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THIS MORNING OVER OUR SERN CORNER...THE NAM HOLDS ON TO EXTENSIVE PRECIP WHILE THE HRRR DRIES THINGS OUT PRETTY QUICKLY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO DRY WHILE THE NAM AND WRF MAY BE OVERDONE. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS OVER PROWERS...BACA...AND ERN LAS ANIMAS THIS MORNING...BUT AMTS DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY 6000-6500 FEET AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 7K FOOT RANGE TODAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AND H7 TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AROUND MINUS 4 TO MINUS 8 OR SO BY MONDAY MORNING. BUT...PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO LOW ELEVATION SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT. OVER THE MTS...PERSISTENT SHSN CONTINUE TODAY...AND WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY PEAKS. AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE MORNING ZONE PACKAGE. ANOTHER TWO TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OVERNIGHT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME COLD MORNING LOWS LATER TONIGHT. ROSE .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 ON MONDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WL BE FOUND OVR THE AREA. A PASSING DISTURBANCE AND SOME LINGERING MSTR WL MEAN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MON WL LIKELY BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. UPR RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED OVR THE AREA FOR TUE AND WED...WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS BOTH DAYS. THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED OVR THE AREA ON THU AS AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BACKS INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS ON THU...BRINGING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INCREASE IN MSTR OVR THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS OVR THE MTNS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LOWER EAST SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTNS WHERE THE UPSLOPE WL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRI AS A WEAK UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPR TROF...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM BRINGING PCPN AND COOLER TEMPS TO MOST OF THE AREA THRU THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 AFTER A SHORT LULL THIS MORNING...WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. FZG LEVELS WILL GENERALLY 7500-8000 FEET TODAY...AND THE MTS WILL BECOME OBSCURED WITH SCT-NMRS SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN THE TAFS. ON MON...STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING BEFORE PRECIP SHIFTS EAST INTO KS DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...PETERSEN SHORT TERM...ROSE LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1224 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME DESPITE THE OUTLIER GFS FORECAST OF PRECIP. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR APPARENT ON THE 00Z OUN AND DDC SOUNDINGS IS INDICATIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION...THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...ARE TOO HIGH WITH THEIR SURFACE DEW POINT INITIALIZATIONS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO HRRR AND HOPWRF REFLECTIVITY PROGS SUGGEST ANY PRECIP THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD BE SPRINKLES...IF INDEED ANYTHING WERE TO EVEN DEVELOP IN THE CWA AT ALL. CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BALANCE LOSS OF FULL SUNSHINE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY SUCH THAT TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. DOWNSTREAM TEMPS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA COULD EXCEED 60 DEGREES. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL MODERATE OVER THIS MORNING`S READINGS WITH MOSTLY 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA. WOLF .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 FORECAST FOCUS ON NICE WARM-UP THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER FOR THE STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE TOO HIGH WITH DEW POINTS IN THIS CURRENT REGIME COMPARED TO REALITY AND HAVE LOWERED VALUES SOMEWHAT THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTHWEST WITH THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE TRACKING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR NOW THIS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AS OTHER MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS AS NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S. MID TO LATE WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL PULL MILD TO WARM AIR INTO THE MIDWEST ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY VEGETATION...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR GRASS FIRES. WILL BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT AND INTERESTING STORM SYSTEM. HAASE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA RESIDING IN LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE AND SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN PCPN AREAS TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...AND TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH STORM SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE TX GULF COAST TO THE OHIO VLY. S/SE WINDS WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 10 KTS THIS AFTN THEN DROP BLO 10KTS TNGT INTO MONDAY AM WHILE BACKING TO THE N/NE. MCCLURE && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WOLF SHORT TERM...WOLF LONG TERM...HAASE AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
206 PM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 MODELS PLAYING CATCHUP THIS MORNING. SYSTEM THAT WAS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED BY MYSELF AND MODEL OUTPUT. MAIN CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS SOUTH OF MY AREA WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANCE IN MY FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING. BECAUSE OF THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION THERE IS A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER THAN THE MODELS THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO GET WARMER THAN EXPECTED. RAP WAS DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS AND USED FOR THE UPDATE. ALSO DRAMATICALLY REDUCED SKY COVER PER LATEST SATELLITE WITH MODEL OUTPUT HAVING TOO MUCH. SATELLITE AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE IN THIS AIR MASS. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES THROUGH MID LEVELS INTO THIS EVENING IN ADDITION TO KEEPING AROUND SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE. ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH IS PUSHING THE AREA AND IS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS INDICATING THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL END UP BEING DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS BY LATE THIS MORNING. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS ALSO GENERATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SO ADJUSTED POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACCOUNTING FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL TONIGHT...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WYOMING AND UTAH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. FOR TODAY...MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK ELEVATED FRONTAL BAND THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR PUEBLO...COLORADO TO HAYS...KANSAS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE DUE TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SO LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY... EXPECTING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND HEAD EAST. OVERALL...CAPE...SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST. CONSIDERED REMOVING THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN AS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY...THINK THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME DOWN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS AS THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE NUDGED WINDS DOWN A COUPLE KNOTS BUT AM STILL FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST RUN AND ONE MAY NOT BE NEEDED AT ALL BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. SO FAR...THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION WOULD MEAN AN INCREASED THREAT OF BLOWING DUST. HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED...BLOWING DUST WOULD NOT BE A MAJOR THREAT FOR OUR REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER BACK TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN WITH WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WARMER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE ANY THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY DURING THAT PERIOD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RIDGE GETS FLATTENED WEDNESDAY NIGHT BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. DO NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST IN THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE BUT WILL LIKELY BE FADING BY THE TIME IT REACHES YUMA COUNTY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED IN THE FOUR CORNERS AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE THE FIRST REAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DECENT MOISTURE RETURN...COOLING ALOFT AND WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH HIGHEST VALUES FROM HILL CITY TO GOVE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GFS CURRENTLY SHOWING UP TO 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY FORECAST AT AROUND 25KT WHICH WOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. STILL A WEEK AWAY BUT MID APRIL TYPICALLY SEES SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING. SUNDAY PRESENTS YET ANOTHER CONCERN...WITH THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS SHOWING MUCH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE AND PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND CONDITIONS WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...BUT THEN AGAIN MID APRIL SNOW STORMS ARE NOT UNHEARD OF IN THE HIGH PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DID CHOOSE TO PUT -TSRA AT BOTH SITES BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE KMCK WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AND THAT IS WHY I PUT IN A MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. LATER ON TONIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS FROM NEAR 12Z TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL LAST BEYOND THIS PERIOD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BULLER SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1137 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 MODELS PLAYING CATCHUP THIS MORNING. SYSTEM THAT WAS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED BY MYSELF AND MODEL OUTPUT. MAIN CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS SOUTH OF MY AREA WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANCE IN MY FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING. BECAUSE OF THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION THERE IS A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER THAN THE MODELS THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO GET WARMER THAN EXPECTED. RAP WAS DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS AND USED FOR THE UPDATE. ALSO DRAMATICALLY REDUCED SKY COVER PER LATEST SATELLITE WITH MODEL OUTPUT HAVING TOO MUCH. SATELLITE AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE IN THIS AIR MASS. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES THROUGH MID LEVELS INTO THIS EVENING IN ADDITION TO KEEPING AROUND SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE. ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH IS PUSHING THE AREA AND IS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS INDICATING THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL END UP BEING DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS BY LATE THIS MORNING. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS ALSO GENERATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SO ADJUSTED POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACCOUNTING FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL TONIGHT...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WYOMING AND UTAH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. FOR TODAY...MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK ELEVATED FRONTAL BAND THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR PUEBLO...COLORADO TO HAYS...KANSAS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE DUE TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SO LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY... EXPECTING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND HEAD EAST. OVERALL...CAPE...SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST. CONSIDERED REMOVING THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN AS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY...THINK THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME DOWN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS AS THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE NUDGED WINDS DOWN A COUPLE KNOTS BUT AM STILL FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST RUN AND ONE MAY NOT BE NEEDED AT ALL BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. SO FAR...THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION WOULD MEAN AN INCREASED THREAT OF BLOWING DUST. HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED...BLOWING DUST WOULD NOT BE A MAJOR THREAT FOR OUR REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER BACK TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN WITH WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WARMER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE ANY THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DOMINANCE OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER TO THE TRI STATE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE AT A CRITICAL LEVEL...HOWEVER CALM WIND SPEEDS UNDER A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY THWART ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT VERY DRY MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PROFILE THAT IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY PRECIP. MOST MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY...BRINGING POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY AND LIFT TO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...BUT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL FILL INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SOME SNOWFLAKES TO SOME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PER COLLABORATION HOWEVER...LEFT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. EVEN IF SOME SNOW DID OCCUR...WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT ALLOW ANY ACCUMULATION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DID CHOOSE TO PUT -TSRA AT BOTH SITES BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE KMCK WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AND THAT IS WHY I PUT IN A MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. LATER ON TONIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS FROM NEAR 12Z TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL LAST BEYOND THIS PERIOD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BULLER SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1033 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 MODELS PLAYING CATCHUP THIS MORNING. SYSTEM THAT WAS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED BY MYSELF AND MODEL OUTPUT. MAIN CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS SOUTH OF MY AREA WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANCE IN MY FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING. BECAUSE OF THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION THERE IS A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER THAN THE MODELS THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE WHICH WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO GET WARMER THAN EXPECTED. RAP WAS DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS AND USED FOR THE UPDATE. ALSO DRAMATICALLY REDUCED SKY COVER PER LATEST SATELLITE WITH MODEL OUTPUT HAVING TOO MUCH. SATELLITE AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE IN THIS AIR MASS. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES THROUGH MID LEVELS INTO THIS EVENING IN ADDITION TO KEEPING AROUND SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE. ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH IS PUSHING THE AREA AND IS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS INDICATING THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL END UP BEING DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS BY LATE THIS MORNING. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS ALSO GENERATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SO ADJUSTED POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACCOUNTING FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL TONIGHT...COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WYOMING AND UTAH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. FOR TODAY...MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK ELEVATED FRONTAL BAND THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR PUEBLO...COLORADO TO HAYS...KANSAS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE DUE TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SO LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY... EXPECTING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND HEAD EAST. OVERALL...CAPE...SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST. CONSIDERED REMOVING THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN AS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY...THINK THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME DOWN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS AS THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE NUDGED WINDS DOWN A COUPLE KNOTS BUT AM STILL FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST RUN AND ONE MAY NOT BE NEEDED AT ALL BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. SO FAR...THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION WOULD MEAN AN INCREASED THREAT OF BLOWING DUST. HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED...BLOWING DUST WOULD NOT BE A MAJOR THREAT FOR OUR REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER BACK TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN WITH WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WARMER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE ANY THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DOMINANCE OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER TO THE TRI STATE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE AT A CRITICAL LEVEL...HOWEVER CALM WIND SPEEDS UNDER A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROBABLY THWART ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT VERY DRY MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PROFILE THAT IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY PRECIP. MOST MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY. MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY...BRINGING POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY AND LIFT TO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...BUT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL FILL INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SOME SNOWFLAKES TO SOME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PER COLLABORATION HOWEVER...LEFT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. EVEN IF SOME SNOW DID OCCUR...WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT ALLOW ANY ACCUMULATION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT WAS UNKNOWN. MENTIONED VCTS FOR KMCK AS BOTH GFS AND NAM CROSS-SECTIONS DEPICT STRONGER LIFT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIP FORECAST AS WELL AS CIG HEIGHTS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER A SHOWER OR STRATUS AS WAS OBSERVED AT KMCK EARLIER. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTH WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BULLER SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
224 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 .UPDATE... UPDATE TO CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 63 FOR OUR LOUISIANA PARISHES AND EXTEND OVER OUR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET GOING ACRS OUR AREA SO FAR TODAY. HOWEVER...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH. LATEST HRRR AND RUC13 SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RADAR TRENDS SO OPTED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT SVR WATCH IN TIME. OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS/WX AS WELL AS TEMPS AS WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SITS ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF A KBPT-KARA LINE AND SHOULD BE SLIDING NORTH OF KLCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF IFR/LIFR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT IS NOW BEGINNING TO WORK INLAND ALONG THE COAST. THEN IT BECOMES SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL SITES. AT THIS TIME THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN 23Z AND 06Z THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE TIMING AS BEST WE CAN USING THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND THE NMC HIRES-ARW. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUST FOR A TIME AT LFT AND ARA AS THE WARM SECTOR SURGE DEVELOPS IN A FEW HOURS. BRAZZELL PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ UPDATE... STILL ANTICIPATE A BUSY DAY TODAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS...INDUCING A SFC LOW NR THE TX COAST ON A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY SITS ALONG THE LA/TX COASTLINE. SVR WATCH 63 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-10...ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACRS NRN LA INTO CNTL TX WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACRS OUR CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED POPS FOR TODAY...BROKEN DOWN INTO SHORTER TIME INCREMENTS TO INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. ALSO ADDED FOG MAINLY TO SRN ZONES...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS FOR THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTN. DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF...WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH ALL TYPES OF SEVERE MODES POSSIBLE (TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS). ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO MORE THAN 1.7 INCHES...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS. THUS...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL TRANSITION EAST OVERNIGHT TOWARD OUR S CNTL LA PARISHES...ENDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 24 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AND ADVANCING NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT EASTERLY BUT RAPIDLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS AT 2K FT. OTHERWISE...IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THIS AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE TROF ALOFT ADVANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ELEVATED BUT STILL POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE DOCKET THIS MORNING...BECOMING SURFACE BASED WITH THE SEVERE THREAT INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AREA WARM SECTORS WITH THE NORTHWARD PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MARCOTTE PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 63 IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES AND PARISHES ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. THE WATCH WILL GO UNTIL 2 PM TODAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... RAINS/SHOWERS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS EAST INTO LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI... AND ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST WITH A TRAILING WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS COMING FROM A TROF BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TODAY WE ARE LOOKING AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE THREAT THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM WINDS AND HAIL ALTHOUGH A TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION... RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED TODAY. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ENDING AROUND SUNRISE. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THIS MESS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. RAINS FINALLY ENDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN COOL DRY WEATHER BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE DOWNSIDE IS RAINS MOVE BACK INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND. 19 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 73 60 72 53 / 80 80 20 10 KBPT 74 60 73 56 / 80 70 20 10 KAEX 70 59 69 50 / 90 90 20 20 KLFT 76 66 73 55 / 70 90 20 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES- BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EAST CAMERON-EVANGELINE-IBERIA- JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON-WEST CAMERON. TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR HARDIN-JEFFERSON-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-TYLER. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1240 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 .AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES IN THE VERY NEAR TERM WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF IFR/LIFR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT IS NOW BEGINNING TO WORK INLAND ALONG THE COAST. THEN IT BECOMES SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL SITES. AT THIS TIME THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN 23Z AND 06Z THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE TIMING AS BEST WE CAN USING THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND THE NMC HIRES-ARW. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUST FOR A TIME AT LFT AND ARA AS THE WARM SECTOR SURGE DEVELOPS IN A FEW HOURS. BRAZZELL && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ UPDATE... STILL ANTICIPATE A BUSY DAY TODAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS...INDUCING A SFC LOW NR THE TX COAST ON A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY SITS ALONG THE LA/TX COASTLINE. SVR WATCH 63 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-10...ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACRS NRN LA INTO CNTL TX WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACRS OUR CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED POPS FOR TODAY...BROKEN DOWN INTO SHORTER TIME INCREMENTS TO INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. ALSO ADDED FOG MAINLY TO SRN ZONES...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS FOR THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTN. DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF...WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH ALL TYPES OF SEVERE MODES POSSIBLE (TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS). ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO MORE THAN 1.7 INCHES...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS. THUS...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL TRANSITION EAST OVERNIGHT TOWARD OUR S CNTL LA PARISHES...ENDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 24 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AND ADVANCING NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT EASTERLY BUT RAPIDLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS AT 2K FT. OTHERWISE...IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THIS AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE TROF ALOFT ADVANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ELEVATED BUT STILL POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE DOCKET THIS MORNING...BECOMING SURFACE BASED WITH THE SEVERE THREAT INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AREA WARM SECTORS WITH THE NORTHWARD PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MARCOTTE PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 63 IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES AND PARISHES ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. THE WATCH WILL GO UNTIL 2 PM TODAY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ DISCUSSION... RAINS/SHOWERS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS EAST INTO LOUISIANA... MISSISSIPPI... AND ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST WITH A TRAILING WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS COMING FROM A TROF BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TODAY WE ARE LOOKING AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE THREAT THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM WINDS AND HAIL ALTHOUGH A TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION... RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED TODAY. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE ENDING AROUND SUNRISE. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THIS MESS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. RAINS FINALLY ENDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN COOL DRY WEATHER BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE DOWNSIDE IS RAINS MOVE BACK INTO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND. 19 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 77 60 73 54 71 / 80 90 20 10 10 KBPT 76 60 73 56 73 / 80 70 20 10 10 KAEX 71 59 69 50 69 / 90 90 20 20 10 KLFT 78 66 73 55 70 / 70 90 20 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS... LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...WEST CAMERON. TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON... ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER. GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY. && FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
632 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING STORM ON THE GULF COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN FOR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... EARLY EVENING VIS SATL IMAGERY SHOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH JUST A BIT OF CIRRUS IN SPOTS. HIGH LVL WAA AHEAD OF DEEPENING MISS VALL TROF WILL SPREAD INCREASING CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER DARK. HOW QUICKLY CIRRUS SHIELD ARRIVES WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD IT GETS TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING BASED ON UPSTREAM SATL TRENDS AND RAP OUTPUT...IS THAT CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE BTWN 01Z-04Z OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...BUT REMAIN THIN ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAD COOLING AND MIN TEMPS IN THE L30S. LATEST MDL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH DAWN OVR THE ENTIRE AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE S TIER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT AS A DEVELOPING STORM TAKES AIM AT THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN TO THE AREA. THE NOSE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SSE LLJ WILL BE SURGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PUSHING AN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS INTO THE REGION. ENSEMBLE PLUMES SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN ON THE ORDER OF .50" TO 1.00" STARTING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTH...AND REACHING OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY COLD AIR DAMMED MONDAY...SO TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MAINLY ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWING EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BEHIND THE MONDAYS RAIN-MAKER...AND STICK AROUND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LAGGING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES BY. THURSDAY LOOKS MILD AND MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BLEEDING ACROSS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A GUSTY SW FLOW SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BROAD COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE REGION. WITH A LITTLE PUSH FROM THIS SECOND FRONT...THE MAIN INITIAL FRONT WILL HOPEFULLY PUSH SOUTH OF PA...LOWERING THE POPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MOVE IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH SRLY FLOW MOVING INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR FAIR WEATHER AND A CHANCE AT ANOTHER WARM UP. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NICE DRY...SUNNY AFT. VFR WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLDS. 21Z TAFS SENT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN LOWER AND THICKEN RAPIDLY DURING MONDAY AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH RAIN...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z MONDAY....AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR RESTRICTED FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY-MID DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TUESDAY...WITH MANY AREAS RETURNING TO VFR DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WESTERN MOUNTAINS...KJST UP THROUGH KBFD...MAY CONTINUE WITH LOWER CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE COOL- MOIST NW FLOW. OUTLOOK... .TUE...MVFR WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS N/W. MVFR TO VFR CNTRL-EAST. .WED...MAINLY VFR. .THU...MAINLY VFR. .FRI...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
539 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING STORM ON THE GULF COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN FOR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... EARLY EVENING VIS SATL IMAGERY SHOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH JUST A BIT OF CIRRUS IN SPOTS. HIGH LVL WAA AHEAD OF DEEPENING MISS VALL TROF WILL SPREAD INCREASING CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER DARK. HOW QUICKLY CIRRUS SHIELD ARRIVES WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD IT GETS TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING BASED ON UPSTREAM SATL TRENDS AND RAP OUTPUT...IS THAT CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE BTWN 01Z-04Z OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...BUT REMAIN THIN ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL RAD COOLING AND MIN TEMPS IN THE L30S. LATEST MDL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH DAWN OVR THE ENTIRE AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE S TIER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A WASHOUT AS A DEVELOPING STORM TAKES AIM AT THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAIN TO THE AREA. THE NOSE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SSE LLJ WILL BE SURGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...PUSHING AN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS INTO THE REGION. ENSEMBLE PLUMES SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN ON THE ORDER OF .50" TO 1.00" STARTING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE SOUTH...AND REACHING OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY COLD AIR DAMMED MONDAY...SO TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MAINLY ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWING EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY BEHIND THE MONDAYS RAIN-MAKER...AND STICK AROUND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LAGGING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES BY. THURSDAY LOOKS MILD AND MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BLEEDING ACROSS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A GUSTY SW FLOW SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BROAD COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE REGION. WITH A LITTLE PUSH FROM THIS SECOND FRONT...THE MAIN INITIAL FRONT WILL HOPEFULLY PUSH SOUTH OF PA...LOWERING THE POPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MOVE IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH SRLY FLOW MOVING INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR FAIR WEATHER AND A CHANCE AT ANOTHER WARM UP. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN LOWER AND THICKEN RAPIDLY DURING MONDAY AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH RAIN...WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z MONDAY....AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR RESTRICTED FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY-MID DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TUESDAY...WITH MANY AREAS RETURNING TO VFR DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WESTERN MOUNTAINS...KJST UP THROUGH KBFD...MAY CONTINUE WITH LOWER CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE COOL- MOIST NW FLOW. OUTLOOK... .TUE...MVFR WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS N/W. MVFR TO VFR CNTRL-EAST. .WED...MAINLY VFR. .THU...MAINLY VFR. FRI...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ A combination of MVFR and IFR conditions continue across the terminals early this afternoon. Light rain showers are currently affecting the KABI terminal with some fog reducing visibilities to 3 to 4SM at KJCT and KBBD. Should see an improvement in both CIGS and visibilities by late afternoon with VFR/MVFR dominating. Some scattered showers will be possible primarily across the KABI and KSJT terminals through late afternoon. Carrying VCSH for now due to coverage uncertainty. MVFR/IFR CIGS expected to return late tonight into Monday morning, with VFR returning by afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2014/ UPDATE... The forecast was updated to increase POPs slightly across central and western counties this afternoon and to lower max temps a few degrees. Spotty light rain showers continue across mainly the Big Country late this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms were also entering extreme western portions of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Latest HRRR/3km WRF data shows this area of precipitation moving east across the area this afternoon. Mid level lapse rates (700-500mb) will increase to 7 to 8 DEG C/KM this afternoon, so will continue to keep a mention of thunderstorms in the forecast. Severe weather is not anticipated but a few of the stronger cells will be capable of producing small hail and gusty winds. Abundant cloud cover and precip will hold temperatures down across much of the area this afternoon with highs mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Some drier air will enter southwest counties later this afternoon with some partial clearing expected. This should allow temperatures to reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across this area. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Widespread stratus will continue across West Central Texas through much of the next 24 hours. As a result, MVFR/IFR CIGS are expected at the terminals. There may be some improvement this afternoon at the KSOA and KSJT terminals due to low level westerly flow bringing low level dry air, and have gone with VFR conditions. Low clouds will return to much of the area late tonight. An upper level trough will bring increasing lift, resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Have continued VCSH at the KABI and KBBD terminals for today. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Latest satellite imagery showing low clouds have spread north across all of West Central Texas. Aloft, upper level trough was located over the southwest U.S., with trough axis along the Arizona/New Mexico border. Ahead of the trough, weak large-scale ascent was over Texas as evident by a few light showers over the eastern half of our area. For today, as the upper level system moves east into the Southern Plains, mid and upper level forcing will increase across West Central Texas. Showers will become more widespread especially across the eastern half of the area. The HRRR convective allowing model indicates activity picking up over the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country during the morning hours(after 10Z). Have the highest POPS (likely to high end chance) across the eastern 1/3 of the area, decreasing to slight chance southwest of a Sterling City to San Angelo to Junction line as forcing will be much weaker. The mid level lapse rates will increase to 7 to 8 DEG C/KM later today so isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A couple of storms will have the potential to produce small hail, gusty winds and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Rainfall amounts will average 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch, with the higher amounts across eastern 1/3 of the area. A few areas like the Northern Edwards Plateau will not even receive a tenth of an inch. Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s across the western Concho Valley and along the I-10 corridor. For tonight, the best large-scale ascent will be located east of West Central Texas. Will keep the slight chance POPS going across mainly the Big Country, otherwise going with a dry forecast. Lows will be in the 40s. LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) On Monday, we may have some lingering showers around the area as a shortwave currently moving southeast into the Pacific Northwest out of southwestern Canada will move through the main upper level trough before it moves east of the area. Have kept the lower end slight chance PoPs going for the area. If any precipitation occurs, the main mode would likely be showers again, but an isolated thunderstorm or two would still be possible as cold temperatures associated with the upper level low will help increase lapse rates aloft. In addition, northerly flow at the surface will bring in drier air resulting in an inverted V soundings for southern areas, which could lead to gusty winds at the surface underneath any showers, virga, or thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light with this activity. Tuesday through the middle of the week, we can expect dry weather, and warming temperatures. Dry northwest flow aloft Tuesday into Wednesday will be replaced by low amplitude ridging, or zonal flow Thursday and Friday. Gulf moisture will move back into the area by the second half of the week as well with persistent southerly low level flow. After Friday, models disagree on timing and strength of another possible trough moving through the area, so have made very minimal changes to the forecast beyond Day 4. FIRE WEATHER... With cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation through Monday for most of the area, fire weather conditions will not be a concern for most of the area. However, by Tuesday, rain chances move out, and temperatures begin to warm back up. Elevated to near critical conditions will be possible Tuesday through the end of next week, and especially on Wednesday and Thursday for areas west of an Abilene to Sonora line, as southerly winds pick up to 15 to 20 mph, and relative humidity values fall to 15 to 20 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 60 45 70 41 74 / 50 20 20 10 0 San Angelo 67 44 72 41 77 / 30 10 20 10 0 Junction 68 43 73 39 79 / 20 10 20 20 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 .AVIATION... RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW STORMS ARE ON THE DOWN TREND AND GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. HAVE TIMED OUT CURRENT STORMS BY 19Z AND THINK TAF SITES CAN EXPECT ONLY SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF AFTERNOON/EVENING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC SINCE THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SITES REPORTING IFR AND LIFR BUT MANY METROPLEX SITES REMAIN VFR. I HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST LOWER. WITH ALL THE MOISTURE ON THE GROUND...EXPECT BR AND IFR CIGS TO OCCUR BY MID EVENING AND LAST THROUGH SUNRISE...TRENDING UP DURING THE MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY SO HAVE ADDED VCSH AND WE WILL HAVE TO REFINE THE TSRA THREAT FOR THAT PERIOD. 84 && .UPDATE... 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS MUCAPE ABOUT DOUBLE WHAT WAS FORECAST... NEAR 700 J/KG. LATEST RAP NOW INDICATING AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. EARLY RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM AMPLE INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE WITH ALREADY ONE SEVERE STORM IN BOSQUE COUNTY THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHOW THE NEW WATCH AND MENTION A THREAT FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS...PERHAPS UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN OTHER PRODUCTS. AGAIN STRONGEST STORMS AND BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THIS MORNING...AND NO CHANGE WITH THAT THINKING. TR.92 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/ A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW ENCROACHING UPON THE REGION AND AREA VWPS SHOW 850MB WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASED TO 30KT DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AS RICH GULF MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTHWARD AND OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH TEXAS TODAY AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES THE CATALYST FOR PARCELS TO ACHIEVE THEIR LFC. THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGH THETA-E AIR COINCIDENT WITH STEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL YIELD 200-600 J/KG OF CAPE WITH PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 850MB. THE HIGHEST MUCAPE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE GREATEST TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY GETS EXHAUSTED...WITH PRIMARILY SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A DRY SLOT WILL ROTATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP END MOST OF THE CONVECTION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WRAP-AROUND RAIN MAY WORK BACK INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING AS A TROWAL DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL LOW THAT TRACKS ALONG THE RED RIVER. ALL RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WHERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 40S DURING PERIODS OF RAIN THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TOMORROW PUTTING NORTH TEXAS IN A REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE. THIS DOWNGLIDE SHOULD HELP ERODE THE CLOUD COVER...WITH BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST EXPECTED BY NOON. USUALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THESE TROUGHS WE ARE IN REGION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DROPPING A STRONG POCKET OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL OCCUR...ALL SIGNS THAT FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST. 500MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR -25C...WHICH IS EXTRAORDINARILY COLD FOR APRIL. THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S WILL YIELD 500-1000J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HI-RES WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION...AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AS A RESULT. WHILE CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOK A LITTLE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL CONVECTIVE MODES AT THIS TIME...THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH FREEZING LEVELS DROPPING TO 8000FT WOULD SUPPORT A SMALL HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER IF MORE SUNSHINE DID OCCUR MONDAY...THE STRONGER HEATING WOULD INCREASE THE SUPERCELL/HAIL THREAT. FURTHERMORE BECAUSE WE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY...ANY SUPERCELL STORMS WOULD ACTUALLY BE LEFT MOVING OR ANTI-CYCLONIC. RAPID CLEARING WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THIS SHOULD MIX STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE TUESDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE LIMITED BY COOLISH TEMPS WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR 70 DEGREES...AND WHAT SHOULD BE MOIST FUELS FROM THE FORECASTED RAINFALL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DIE OFF AND THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES OVER NORTH TEXAS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S EAST TO UPPER 40S WEST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS SUNNY AND VERY NICE WITH HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR 80. SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS WELL...BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION. EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST/STRONGEST AND BRINGS IT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS IT AND BRINGS IT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TEMPERED BY A STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION...AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT SITS OVER THE GULF MID-LATE WEEK. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF MORE THAN THE GFS...AND BRING LOW POPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ADVERTISE A STRONG FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND BEHIND IT. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 54 48 65 44 71 / 100 40 30 20 0 WACO, TX 57 48 67 46 72 / 90 20 30 20 0 PARIS, TX 54 47 62 45 66 / 100 60 30 20 0 DENTON, TX 54 46 64 43 70 / 100 40 30 20 0 MCKINNEY, TX 54 47 64 44 68 / 100 40 30 20 0 DALLAS, TX 54 48 65 45 71 / 100 40 30 20 0 TERRELL, TX 54 48 64 44 69 / 100 30 30 20 0 CORSICANA, TX 56 49 65 45 69 / 100 20 20 20 0 TEMPLE, TX 59 47 68 45 73 / 80 20 20 20 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 54 45 67 42 73 / 90 30 30 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
553 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS ON THE BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. 06.21Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS AREA IS IN THE BELT OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000J/KG IN THIS REGION. THIS AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS A LITTLE BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE OF WINDS THANKS TO AN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THE 06.21Z HRRR IS IN LINE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND SHOWS IT MAINLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD ALONG THE CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEAKENING AS IT REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN. AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT THAT COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS AS WELL. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FAIRLY LOW AT 6-7KFT ALONG WITH DONOVAN HEIGHTS ONLY BEING AROUND 17KFT...BUT THINK THAT LACK OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY UPDRAFTS FROM BEING SUSTAINED. ONE COCORAHS REPORT OF PEA SIZED HAIL NEAR ELLENDALE MN ALREADY AND THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF HOW HIGH THE HAIL GETS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 FORECAST CONCERN IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NEAR DETROIT AND LOW PRESSURE FROM MN TO NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO LEADING TO CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS IA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE MOST UNSTABLE AIR SEEN JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE THICKER CLOUD SHIELD HAS BEEN ALL DAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN ND AND WILL HELP TO DRIVE THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE A LARGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MAIN CONCERN IS RAIN CHANCES WITH THESE FEATURES. LOOKING LIKE THE INITIAL CLOUD BAND AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN OR EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WANE FOR A TIME...BUT INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE WAVE AND FRONT MOVE IN...AIDED BY DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 LOOKING LIKE A MORE MILD OR NORMAL APRIL TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL TAKE HOLD THIS WEEK. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING FOR A FEW DAYS AND WEAK TROUGHING FOR A FEW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TUE/WED...AND INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS SYSTEM POSES PROBABLY THE BIGGEST DILEMMA OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED THE FRONT WOULD HANG UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. BUT LATER SOLUTIONS NOW POINTING TO SOME WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING IN BEHIND THE FIRST ONE... RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PUSH WITH A MORE TRANSIENT RAIN EVENT. GFS HAD LATCHED ONTO THIS ALREADY WITH ITS 06Z RUN...AND 12Z CONTINUED. LATEST 12Z ECMWF NOW ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS. WITH MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON A SOLUTION... DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. FOR NOW WAS CONSERVATIVE WITH CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUT MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED VCSH AT BOTH KRST/KLSE AFTER 20-21Z. STILL ASSESSING IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WELL...BUT CHANCES OF ONE AFFECTING EITHER AERODROME ARE PRETTY SMALL...SO OPTED NOT TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN VFR. LOOKING FOR THESE SHRA TO EVENTUALLY FIZZLE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL MONDAY MORNING AND THIS WILL BE BASED ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. IF WE SCATTER...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MORE FOG AS A RESULT. THINKING CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN BROKEN ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS BUT DID INCLUDE 3-5SM BR...BANKING ON SOME HOLES IN THE SKY COVER. EXPECTING SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN SHRA MONDAY...BUT THIS DOESNT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND NOON. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR RATHER GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBACH SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1236 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 UPDATED FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH MN. RAP MODEL BRINGS IN A 0-3KM MUCAPE POOL OF 500-1000 J/KG BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RAP DEW POINTS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE IN THE M-U40S...BUT MODIFIED CAPE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S WOULD STILL YIELD 300-800J/KG. THIS IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING. OTHERWISE...MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TODAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 50S NORTH OF I-94...TO A FEW LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-90. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NATION/S MID- SECTION...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM/S DEFORMATION REGION OF PCPN NORTH-WEST OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SUBTLE FEATURES THAT COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME PCPN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARMING...WITH SOME MINOR RIPPLES MOVING DOWN THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAKES TIMING/PLACEMENT OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES PROBLEMATIC...AND WILL LIKELY USE BROAD STROKES WITH THE CHANCES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DUE HINT THAT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL WORK SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...DROPPING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER THAT NIGHT. THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKER SIGNALS...COULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL SLATED TO BE MORE ZONAL TO RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER A RELATIVELY MILD AIR MASS. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES VIA THE ECMWF STILL HOVER AROUND +1. IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEKS. THAT SAID...ITS NOT GOING TO BE PCPN FREE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA MID WEEK...STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION AS IT PASSES WED NIGHT/THU. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SLIPS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WED NIGHT...AND THE GFS/EC SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD DRIVE ACROSS IT. SOME LOW/MID LEVEL QG CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. SATURATION COULD BE AN ISSUE AS TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY TRENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION...WHERE SATURATION IS DEEPER. THE WEEKEND IS SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TAKES A NORTHEAST TRACK TOWARD THE REGION. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE PREV ECMWF RUN...WITH THE EC A BIT FASTER. HOWEVER...THE 06.00Z EC IS MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS THINKING. WITH THE GULF OPEN AND A STRONG FEED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...A BROAD AREA OF PCPN LOOKS LIKELY...WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN FALLING ON THE REGION. IF REALIZED...WOULD LIKELY SEE RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS. GOING TO SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR NOW. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED VCSH AT BOTH KRST/KLSE AFTER 20-21Z. STILL ASSESSING IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WELL...BUT CHANCES OF ONE AFFECTING EITHER AERODROME ARE PRETTY SMALL...SO OPTED NOT TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN VFR. LOOKING FOR THESE SHRA TO EVENTUALLY FIZZLE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL MONDAY MORNING AND THIS WILL BE BASED ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. IF WE SCATTER...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MORE FOG AS A RESULT. THINKING CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN BROKEN ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS BUT DID INCLUDE 3-5SM BR...BANKING ON SOME HOLES IN THE SKY COVER. EXPECTING SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN SHRA MONDAY...BUT THIS DOESNT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND NOON. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR RATHER GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DAS SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...DAS