Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/05/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

753 PM MDT FRI APR 4 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. THERE HAS
BEEN JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW WEAK SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE THROUGH WILL INCREASE THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND LOWER
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES NEARS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW 6000 FEET 16-19Z SATURDAY.
NORMAL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME
NORTHEAST SATURDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM MDT FRI APR 4 2014/

SHORT TERM...A FEW ECHOES SHOWING UP ON THE 1.5 DEGREE SCAN OVER
NORTHERN PARK COUNTY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN CLEAR CREEK COUNTY BOUNDARY
WHERE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS COMBINING WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SHOWS THESE WEAK SHOWERS
DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS BY THIS EVENING WITH
OTHER SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE
SHOWERS TO REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY HIGH BASED WITH MINIMAL RAIN OR
SNOW OCCURRING AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES AND LOCAL UPSLOPE WEAKENS. ALONG NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS...WAVE CLOUD HAD DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART
WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S. STILL SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL UPSTREAM WHICH WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WEAK LIFT INCREASES ACROSS MOUNTAINS
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MINS FAIRLY MILD IN VALLEY AREAS. ON
SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES DURING THE MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD COLORADO. MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND DEEPENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
MID LEVEL AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BETTER CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.
PLAINS TO REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. MOST OF
THE LIFT STAYS SOUTH OF COLORADO WITH ONLY WEAK OROGRAPHICS WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BUT DECENT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. DID BUMP
THE MOUNTAIN POPS MOST LOCATIONS AS A RESULT. WITH LACK OF
OROGRAPHICS...SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. ACROSS PLAINS...MODELS
SHOW WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK
UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. WITH THE INCREASING
LIFT AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES...SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHERE THE UPSLOPE WILL
OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN. TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...BROAD TROUGH MOVES ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY...KEEPING A
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THERE IS SOME COOLING ALOFT
SO THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING SNOW TO THE SURFACE ON THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH STILL AT FAIRLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE PRETTY LOCALIZED AS
SNOW FROM THE LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MELT. MODELS STILL
TRENDING A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING ONTO THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF US THOUGH...BUT MAYBE BETTER COOLING AND MORE WIND.
SOME SHOWERS ALREADY GOT ADDED FOR MONDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY SHORT LIVED...PERHAPS JUST A LINE OF SHOWERS EARLY
MONDAY...THEN RAPID WARMING ALOFT/DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. ECMWF STILL HAS ALL THIS A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH
LESS IMPACT THAN WHAT THE GFS SHOWS...AND RAPID CLEARING DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

WARM RIDGE COMES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY IS STILL
LOOKING PRETTY DRY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD WARMING...ONLY
CONCERN IS IF SOME CLOUDS COME IN BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE IT AT THIS
POINT. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED THINGS UP A LITTLE OVER GUIDANCE
AGAIN...COULD WIND UP AROUND 80 IF NOTHING MESSES IT UP. A
SHORTWAVE WELL NORTH OF US SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE BY
THURSDAY...AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER WAVE COMING OVER IN THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. ECMWF HAS INSISTED ON A BIT STRONGER
FRONT THURSDAY...AND HAS A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN THE LATEST RUN.
BUT DETAILS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE. NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME COOLING IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS IN ORDER.

AVIATION...WAVE CLOUD HAD DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...STILL
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE DECREASING BY 01Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL. WINDS
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...THEN BECOME
NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE CEILINGS
AROUND 6000 FEET AGL BY 21Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....GIMMESTAD
UPDATE/AVIATION...MEIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

122 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...THEN
PASS NEARBY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WERE TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF THEY NYC METRO AREA
WHERE MAX TEMPS WERE VERY CLOSE TO BEING MET ALREADY...AND TO
LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS CT WHERE STRONG MIXING HAS MIXED DOWN QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE SLIGHTLY
EARLIER SEA BREEZE TIMING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS OBS INDICATE THE
SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY FORMED ALONG THE CT COAST...AND IS IN THE
PROCESS OF FORMING ACROSS NY HARBOR. USED THE LATEST HRRR FOR SFC
WINDS AS IT MATCHED UP WELL WITH CURRENT OBS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NW WILL BRING US A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE. H9
FORECAST TEMP THIS AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5C...THEREFORE EXPECTING
HIGHS AROUND 60 ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WARMEST AREAS OF NE NJ...NYC
AND ADJACENT AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE
WITH LOW AND MID-LEVEL PVA...SUPPORTING SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...HOWEVER THIS WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RIDGING
ALOFT AND RELATIVELY HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE EAST. LIGHT RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.

WE LOSE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIFT...SO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE
LIKELY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH AN OVERCAST SKY AND AN
EAST FLOW...TEMPS DURING THE DAY ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW/TRIPLE POINT
APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO US LATE AT NIGHT. A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LIKELY LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEK. GFS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN LATEST ECMWF TO LIFT TRIPLE POINT LOW
OFF TO THE NE SAT MORNING...SO HAVE STARTED THE DAY OFF WITH
LINGERING CHANCE POP MAINLY FOR CT/LONG ISLAND...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY DRY CONDITIONS ON A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW...AND HIGHS 55-60.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING DROPPING LOWS INTO UPPER 20S WELL
INLAND AND 30S MOST ELSEWHERE.

THE COMBO OF THE SFC HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
S-SW FLOW...AND WITH FLAT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS HIGHS FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST SHOULD REACH 60-65...WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HOLDS HIGHS
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT TO THE MID 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SAT NIGHT VIA WEAK WAA AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF CUTOFF LOWS MOVES NE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...CHANCES FOR OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
FROM MON INTO MON EVENING AS A LEADING WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. PER WPC GUIDANCE SHOWING THE WARM FRONT STILL TO THE
SOUTH MON MORNING AND A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT/TRIPLE POINT LOW
NEARBY...CONTINUED LIKELY POP INTO TUE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST DESPITE FROPA. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO
INDICATE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. DRY CONDS FCST FOR NOW
FOR WED...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AND MAY DEPEND ON THE TRACK
OF THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE.

TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF AVG...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG BY WED
VIA CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR TODAY. SUB-VFR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

WINDS ARE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS
VARY FROM WEST TO NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE TERMINALS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION RIGHT NOW IS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CT COAST WHERE
SEABREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED.

SEABREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. WINDS HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

TONIGHT...WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDAY
FRIDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME.

SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY BECOME BKN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN AFTER 03Z
ON FRIDAY FOR THE CITY TERMINALS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. CIGS
WILL FALL TO MVFR AFTER 07Z FRIDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOWN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS COULD FALL TO IFR FOR A PERIOD.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. IF SEA BREEZE DOES DEVELOP...TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON-FRI NIGHT...A CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA.
.SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SATURDAY.
.MON...VFR. -RA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MARGINAL VFR
POSSIBLE. INCREASING E/SE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN RA.
.TUES...IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT A BETTER CHANCE
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE
DURING FRIDAY AS WINDS PICK UP WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY FOR
ALL WATERS. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL ZONES.

WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN SCA LEVEL WINDS/SEAS ON THE OCEAN SAT
INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH SCA GUSTS DEVELOPING BRIEFLY ON THE ERN
SOUND/BAYS SAT AFTERNOON. QUIET CONDS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR ALL WATERS
SUNDAY INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS...THEN INCREASING
SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW
COULD BRING SCA CONDS TO THE OCEAN MON NIGHT.

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/2 INCH EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN
MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1259 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF AVG...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG BY WED
VIA CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR TODAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. SEA BREEZES MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT HOWEVER.

SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY BECOME BKN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN AFTER
03Z ON FRIDAY FOR THE CITY TERMINALS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS TODAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. IF SEA BREEZE DOES DEVELOP...TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-FRI NIGHT...A CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA.
.SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SATURDAY.
.MON...VFR. -RA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MARGINAL VFR
POSSIBLE. INCREASING E/SE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GS/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/JP
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

919 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. NEXT WEEK, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF
COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND AFFECT OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY FOLLOW FOR MIDWEEK,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NEXT ESTF UPDATE WE ADDED THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG BEYOND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT ALREADY WAS CARRIED. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO OUR CWA. THEY ARE LOSING
THEIR CONVECTIVE SUPPORT DEFINITELY AT THE SURFACE AND EVEN SO
SOMEWHAT ALOFT. SO NO THUNDER EXPECTED AND AN OVERALL DOWNWARD
TREND IN INTENSITY. BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE RAP AND HRRR,
WE LOWERED POPS BEYOND 05Z MORE RAPIDLY. THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT
TO CREST THE APPALACHIANS, BUT THE MARINE INFLUENCED AIR MASS IS
STILL CHILLIER HERE, SO THE IDEA OF SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT
LOOKS TO BE HOLDING. TEMPS ARE GOING CLOSER TO PLAN, SO NO BIG
ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXITING LAKE HURON AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE TRIPLE
POINT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD HOVER AROUND THE ONE-HALF INCH MARK IN
THE NORTH AND EVEN LESS FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
OR SLIGHTLY AFTER. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP AGAIN TOWARD MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
AN INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SATURDAY WILL START OUT MAINLY CLEAR
EXCEPT IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOT
QUITE THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL MID AFTERNOON, IT MIGHT TAKE JUST A BIT
LONGER FOR SKIES TO CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA, SO HAVE PLACED UP TO A 50% SKY COVER IN THE GRIDS. WEST
WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE AT TIMES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH, WITH A FEW SPOTS
PERHAPS REACHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF ON A NICE NOTE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST STATES BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT NEAR AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY,
AS HIGHS WILL REACH MOSTLY THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED INTO THE WORK WEEK AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS INTO MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
LATER TUESDAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL TRACK
OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE COLD FRONT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS OUR REGION, THERE DOES LOOK TO BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 1 TO 1.5
INCH RANGE, MAKING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY. WHILE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE ARE CENTERED AROUND LATE
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WE ALSO HAVE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVER THE REGION, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
INTO MIDWEEK ON WEDNESDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD, BUT WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE, ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND EXTEND ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SPRINGTIME DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR OUR AREA THURSDAY WITH MIXED
SUN AND CLOUDS AND DAYTIME HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
MEANWHILE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT,
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS FAIRLY
LIMITED, AND WE CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AT
THIS TIME.

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE IFR FOR TONIGHT WITH A BETTER (VFR) BUT WINDIER DAY
ON SATURDAY.

FOR THIS EVENING, IFR CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY WITH VSBY DUE TO FOG.
SOME OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IS ALSO CAUSED BY DRIZZLE. SHOWERS
ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, CHOSE THESE AS THE PTYPE GROUP.
HIGHEST CHANCES NORTHWEST TERMINALS. EAST WINDS ARE DECREASING
AND SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. A LOW IS FORECAST TO
FORM ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THIS SHOULD DECREASE WINDS
FURTHER, BUT ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS AS EITHER IFR OR LIFR DUE TO
BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS.

LATE TONIGHT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VSBYS AND VFR TO MVFR CIGS.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.

SATURDAY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THERE
COULD BE A VFR STRATOCU CIG DURING THE MORNING, BUT CHANCES
DECREASE AS DAY PROGRESSES. SUSTAINED WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. WIND IN FINAL FORECAST PERIOD IS AN
AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY, SO MAY BE TOO WINDY AT START OF
MORNING WITH SOME PEAK GUSTS REACHING AROUND 35 KTS AT WINDIER
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY, THEN
DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY MORNING, BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES.

THE EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEMS WAS
KICKING UP WINDS IN THE 25 KT RANGE OVER THE MARINE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES. THE WINDS
MAY ACTUALLY EXPERIENCE A RELATIVE LULL THIS EVENING WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES JUST A BIT AS AN IMPULSE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS REASON THE
SCA ON THE OCEAN GOES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 3 TO 4 FOOT VALUES EXPECTED ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 5 FEET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED TO DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST GUIDANCE, BUT CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY...WIND GUSTS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY, AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
431.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GIGI/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/MIKETTA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

1005 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

...LOW RAIN CHANCES CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WAS EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE WHILE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WAS RAPIDLY
SHREDDING APART ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE HRRR ADVERTISING A LOW
CHANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE THE FL PANHANDLE SEA BREEZE
WILL CONVERGE WITH SHALLOW FORCING ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
LIGHT PRECIP MAY OCCUR...AND INDICATED RAIN CHANCES OF ONLY
15-20%. AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUED TO SHOW LOW RAIN CHANCES CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST AS THE FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...BUT CONFINED PRECIP CHANCES TO ONLY 20-30% ALONG AND WEST
OF A JESUP-WAYCROSS-LIVE OAK LINE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION BUT GIVEN
PASSING CLOUD COVER DENSE FOG FORMATION CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
ADVERTISED PATCHY FOG ACROSS ALL ZONES WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE LOW STRATUS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF MAY SETTLE CLOSER THE SURFACE. MILD
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MINS IN LOW 60S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S
RIVER/COAST.

.AVIATION...MODELS SHOW STRATUS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW
LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS REACHING GNV
06Z-08Z...AND EAST COAST TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z-11Z. LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z. HAVE VCSH IN
FORECAST AFTER 17Z AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH INTO SE GA.

.MARINE...S WINDS 10-15 KTS NEARSHORE WITH SEAS 2-3 FT...WHILE
FARTHER OFFSHORE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WHERE
BUOY 41008 REPORTED S WINDS 16G18 KTS LAST HOUR AND 2 FT SEAS.
ADJUSTED SEA HEIGHTS DOWN AROUND 1 FT BASED ON RECENT
OBS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH WINDS RELAXING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK SAT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 62 80 57 74 / 20 50 60 60
SSI 65 76 60 71 / 10 50 40 40
JAX 62 85 61 80 / 10 40 40 30
SGJ 64 80 63 78 / 10 30 30 30
GNV 61 84 61 82 / 10 30 20 20
OCF 61 85 61 84 / 0 20 20 20

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/ZIBURA/MCALLISTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

948 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...
823 PM CDT

HAD UPDATED EARLIER TO ADD MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-EVENING.

VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF SOME GRAUPEL ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST IL THIS
EVENING. BACK EDGE OF RADAR-DETECTABLE PRECIP WAS APPROACHING THE
FOX RIVER VALLEY...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING
AS THE VORT MOVES EAST OF AREA. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY ERODE THE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...WITH EXPANSIVE CLEARING NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA PER GOES 11-3.9 IMAGERY.

OTHERWISE...ALSO LOWERED WINDS/GUSTS A BIT IN STEP WITH CURRENT
OBS TRENDS.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
203 PM CDT

TONIGHT...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. WITH A
STILL 30 MB SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LAKE HURON TO WESTERN
IA...THE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 30-35 MPH AT
TIMES EARLY THIS EVE. SOME OF THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER ACROSS IA AND
SOUTHERN MN HAS MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE TO IT SO EXPECT IT TO FADE
QUICKLY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION ERODING AT IT. HAVE GONE WITH A
QUICKER CLEARING THAN MOST MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS WOULD
INDICATE...WITH SCATTERING FROM MID-EVE THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT.
ALREADY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAYBE
WITH A LITTLE MORE HASTE ONCE SCATTERING OCCURS. LOWS LOOK TO SETTLE
AT 25 TO 30 OR ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW EARLY APRIL NORMALS.

MTF

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE A DAY
OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE GRADUALLY MODIFYING
BUT STILL A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE STRONG APRIL SUN
AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING WILL YIELD A NICE DAY...ESPECIALLY COMPARED
TO THE WINDY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. WHILE HIGHS AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW 50S TO PERHAPS MID 50S IN SOME
SPOTS...THE ONLY CONCERN TOMORROW IS THE TIMING OF A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. NONEXISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW IT TO DO SO BY MID DAY...IF NOT
EARLIER. THIS WILL KEEP AREAS WITHIN 5 TO 10 MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN
STUCK PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS COULD TRY TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE
WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. BANKING ON CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO
YIELD LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING A NICE WARM UP ON SUNDAY TO THE UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN. FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE SHIFT TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS ONTO THE ILLINOIS LAKESHORE. IF TIMING OF THE SHIFT
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S
PEGGED FOR THE LAKEFRONT COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING
WILL SPUR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE GULF COAST THAT WILL THEN
DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE
EASTERN LAKES ON MONDAY. THE EXACT TRACK...WITH WHICH THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH OF THE AREA SEES APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM`S
DEFORMATION AXIS. GEFS POPS FAVOR CATEGORICAL IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND LIKELIES FOR THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF CWA SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME
ACCORDINGLY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND A LAKE MICHIGAN DRIVEN
INVERSION WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS LOW 40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TO UPPER 40S-AROUND 50 INLAND. FARTHER WEST...DESPITE CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND FROM APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
AREA...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN ONLY IN THE 40S. THEN ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW RIDING
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. RAPID WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT IN DOWN SLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW COULD ENABLE HIGHS EVEN WARMER
THAN UPPER 50S CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE WARMING OF THE AIR MASS WILL
PEAK EARLY THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING TO THE MID TEENS
CELSIUS. WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW-MID
40S LOWS COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE OFF TO THE
RACES THURSDAY...THOUGH A POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. IF
THE FRONT SLOWS OR PASSAGE DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL PAST PEAK
WARMING...THEN HIGHS INTO THE 70S (!) ARE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF IS
FEATURING. SO THE MID-UPPER 60S FROM BLENDED INITIALIZATION
HOPEFULLY WILL NEED TO BE RAISED SOME. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT WELL
NORTH...WOULDNT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS WITH FROPA...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A COOLER FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EASE TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR
* WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST PROBABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

VFR BKN-OVC DECK WILL LINGER THIS EVENING BUT WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE EXPECT THE BREAKS DEVELOPING OVER WISCONSIN TO EXPAND
AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY THIS EVENING AND VEER TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TO START THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GRADIENT LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON. PLAN TO MAINTAIN A WIND SHIFT TO NE WITH A LAKE
BREEZE PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF CYCLE
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE
BREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINDER OF TAF ELEMENTS

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/MVFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR

IZZI

.MARINE...
215 PM CDT

MAIN CONCERN FOR LAKE MICHIGAN REMAINS THE ONGOING GALE EVENT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN SFC LOW IS MOVING INTO LWER
MICHIGAN AND WINDS ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HAVE
SHIFTED WLY AND INCREASED TO GALE FORCE WHILE THE FAR NORTH
REMAINS NELY AND JUST BELOW GALES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING GALE
WARNING AND STILL EXPECT SOME FURTHER INCREASE TO THE WIND SPEEDS
OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS THE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA
MOVES NEWD IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW. THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE HAVE NOT YET INCREASED TO GALE FORCE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALES WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF ISSUANCE TIME
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD ADVECTIONS INCREASES OVER THE
LAKE AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WHILE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY...LEADING TO STRENGTHING NWLY WINDS
AGAIN...THOUGH MORE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.

KREIN

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL
10 PM FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 AM
SATURDAY.

GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
849 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 845 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014

The intense area of low pressure that brought the active weather
to our area yesterday has shifted well off to our northeast early
this evening. Tight pressure gradient from the retreating low and
approaching area of high pressure to our west brought us strong
winds today with the cyclonic flow beginning to relax early this
evening resulting in a decrease in wind speeds. As usual, models
were too optimistic with respect to the clouds moving out today
with several more hours to go before we see a clearing trend work
its way into our area overnight. HRRR model and RAP forecast
soundings suggesting the timing of any clearing more towards
midnight northwest and during the early morning hours over the far
eastern counties. Will make those adjustments to the sky grids and
adjust early evening temperatures. We should have the update out
by 900 pm.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 610 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014

Timing of clearing across the area tonight the main forecast issue
with the gusty west to northwest winds expected to diminish this
evening. High pressure will slowly push into the region late
tonight and during the day Saturday ushering in some drier air
in the 9250-850 mb layer which should result in a decrease in
cloud cover tonight and all areas seeing VFR conditions on Sat.
Most of the cigs have risen to either high MVFR or low VFR heights
across central Illinois with some significant breaks appearing now
over parts of central Iowa which should eventually make its way
into our area overnight. Surface winds will diminish from the
west and northwest this evening with speeds dropping off to around
10 kts aftr 03z. With high pressure centered over our area Saturday,
we expect light winds from the west and northwest with speeds of
10 kts or less during the day.

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014
Exiting low pressure system over the Great Lakes leaving a tight
pressure gradient and gusty winds in its wake for the Midwest.
Northerly winds expected to slowly move into the region with
cooler temps for tomorrow as high pressure builds into the region.
High pressure ridge over the CWA for the weekend keeping mild
weather and mostly sunny skies in place. Next system not expected
until after midnight Sun night/Monday. For the most part, forecast
models in pretty good agreement with a quiet forecast overall.
Temperatures still a bit below normal on average and only a couple
shots at precipitation at this point.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through tomorrow...
Winds staying up a bit through the evening before the boundary
layer decouples and the low pulls a bit further to the east. Winds
not dropping below 10kts until later on Saturday morning as the
high pressure ridge moves over the region. Plenty of sunshine
tomorrow will drive temps up into the 50s, still below normal, but
closer to spring than the past couple of days.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
Warmer on Sunday with highs approaching 60. Increasingly southerly
winds through the day assisting with the WAA even though the
clouds will slowly increase with another system developing to the
SSW. The wave just off the Pacific NW coast this afternoon
eventually digs in over the SWrn CONUS and develops a sfc low that
moves through the southern Plains and up into the Ohio River
Valley late Sunday and brings a chance for showers through Monday.
For now, ILX will mainly be on the back side of the Low...putting
the SErn CWA in a spot for some prolonged rainfall. Rain slowly
clearing on Mon night/Tuesday and forecast becomes mild again
through the middle of the week until another system lays out a
boundary for the region on Friday. At this point, pops for
Thursday night remain on the low side, awaiting more detail with a
rather subtle and weak signal in the models.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

338 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

...updated short term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

An upper trough rotating through the region will drive a narrow
deformation precipitation band across the northern counties (from
around Syracuse through Garden City and Hays. Thermal profiles
indicate rain is the main precipitation type expected with only a
small probability of some wet bulbing occurring in the lowest levels
mainly over the far western counties. Between he models, The HRRR
weakens the precipitation field much more rapidly than the far more
robust NAM solutions. The airmass across the Central Plains is not
particularly cold, ans most of the colder air over NW Kansas is due
to the rain and snow cooled column. As the precipitation band
weakens and moves east this evening, northwest surface winds will
slowly weaken with time through the overnight. As skies clear
overnight radiational cooling should help surface temperatures to
plummet into the mid 20s. Slightly warmer conditions are expected on
Friday with highs expected in the upper 50s to a few low 60s in
places like the Red Hills. Winds speeds will be below average as the
surface ridge moves across western Kansas in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

The longwave trough now over western North America will be
transitioning eastward across the continent through the next several
days. As today`s shortwave trough over the central Plains lifts out
of the longwave trough, another shortwave now moving into the west
Coast will move through the mean longwave trough position and out
over the central Plains through the upcoming weekend. As this next
wave approaches, modest low level moisture return from the southern
plains Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation chances will be
increasing during the day Saturday and continuing through Sunday
before diminishing as the main upper wave continues east Sunday
night. Model sounding profiles appear warm enough that whatever
precipitation occurs will stay in liquid form. With colder mid level
temperatures accompanying the trough, there should be enough
instability for a few thunderstorms through the period. Will
highlight the time period from Sunday afternoon through Monday
evening for the convective activity.

An upper level ridge will be building over the west Coast this
weekend and spreading out over the central part of the country
through the middle part of next week. Dry and warmer weather will
return to the central High Plains from Tuesday on. Daytime high
temperatures could climb into the 80s across southwest Kansas on
Wednesday. The models suggest that a weak cold front will push south
through western Kansas by Thursday which would knock high temperatures
back somewhat for late week. Details on the timing and strength of
this cold front are not real clear this far out, however.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

IFR stratus will continue through the afternoon as a precipitation
producing deformation axis moves across northwest Kansas. The
forcing will be weakening with time, however the HRRR does indicate
potential for rain at KHYS by late in the afternoon and this
evening, with less certainty for precipitation at KDDC. IFR ceilings
should rapidly improve during the evening as subsidence behind the
deformation zone develops.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 59 36 57 / 10 0 0 30
GCK 28 59 35 58 / 50 0 0 30
EHA 28 59 38 57 / 10 0 0 40
LBL 28 60 37 57 / 10 0 0 40
HYS 27 54 33 61 / 90 0 0 20
P28 35 58 35 60 / 10 0 0 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

335 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

Short range models indicate a strong upper level trough moving
eastward out of the Four Corner Regions into the Western High Plains
today bringing the possibility for precip to portions of central and
western Kansas. As the upper level system moves into the southern
Rockies early this morning, the surface low across extreme
southeastern Colorado will begin to shift eastward along the Kansas
and Oklahoma border then lift northeast across eastern Kansas as a
cold front begins to push through western Kansas. Although low level
moisture will be lacking with the bulk of it blocked off to our
east, enough mid level moisture exists with the approaching trough
axis to set the stage for rain development along and behind the
front as it pushes through this afternoon. The best chance for
precip is expected to be across more northern portions of the
forecast area, including west central Kansas and the I-70 corridor
in central Kansas where H7 frontogenetic banding is projected to
occur in better proximity to the mid/upper level wave. Enough cold
air advection in the lower levels may be enough to support brief
periods of light to moderate snow across west central and central
Kansas with limited snow accumulations possible, especially if
mixed with rain. Any precip chances will quickly come to an end
this evening as the upper level wave quickly lifts northeast into
the Upper Midwest.

Temperatures will be well below normal today as cold air surges
southward in wake of a cold front pushing through western Kansas
this afternoon. With temperatures down into the 30s(F) across
west central and portions of southwest Kansas early this morning,
look for highs only up into the 40s(F) here today, particularly with
lingering clouds through early this afternoon. A few 50s(F) may be
possible in south central Kansas where the frontal boundary remains
fairly stationary. Look for temperatures to fall easily into the
30s(F) tonight with mid to upper 20s(F) possible by sunrise Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

604 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

GFS, ECMWF, and Ensembles appear to all be in good agreement with
moving an upper level trough, located off the west coast earlier
this morning, to the four corners region by Saturday afternoon. This
system will then cross the central high plains late Sunday. As this
next upper level system crosses the southwest United States on
Saturday...an area of low pressure at the surface will deepen along
the lee of the Rockies and a south/southeast flow will develop
across west Texas and western Kansas. This south/southeasterly flow
in the lower levels will begin to draw low level moisture back into
southwest Kansas. By Saturday afternoon an upper level jet
streak is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF to extend from the base of
the southwest United States upper trough into west Texas and the
left exit region will be located over the Texas panhandle and
extreme southwest Kansas. Based on improving low level moisture,
and 850-700MB warm air advection near the left exit region of this
upper level jet the chance for rain showers will be improving during
the day across southwest Kansas. The chance for precipitation will
continue through Sunday as the main upper level trough continues to
approach the area from the west and a mid level deformation zone
exits the Rockies and crosses the Central High Plains. Given the
expected cloud cover and precipitation chances over the weekend
period the cooling trend currently in the forecast still looks on
track. Also based on 925mb to 850mb temperatures at 00z Sunday will
trend highs toward the cooler 850mb mix down temperatures,
especially in the southwest where cloud cover and precipitation
chances will occur earlier than further northeast. Latest MET and
MAV guidance also hinting at this so highs on Saturday will range
from the upper 50s in far southwest Kansas to near 60 in north
central and south central Kansas. Cloud cover and the net 24hour
trend from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday supports highs on Sunday to be
around 5 degrees cooler.

On Monday the main upper level trough/low will move into the mid
Mississippi Valley as a weaker upper level disturbance, associated
with a northern branch upper level jet streak approaches from the
northwest. Based on the mid level moisture and instability under the
500mb cool pool will keep a chance/slight chance rain showers in
the forecast until this system passes.

On Tuesday an upper level ridge will begin to approach the Rockies
from the west. Downslope flow and 850mb temperatures trends
indicate a warming trend, especially mid week. Highs next week are
expected to rebound from the upper 50s to mid 60s on Tuesday to
the mid 70s to near 80 by Thursday afternoon.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

Cloud bases will gradually increase by late morning as drier air
and mixing occurs across western Kansas. Based on NAM BUFR
soundings and latest HRRR the current IFR/LIFR conditions will
improve into MVFR conditions between 18z and 21z. Ceilings will
then improve into the VFR category late day/early evening as an
upper level trough crosses western Kansas. There will also be a
chance for precipitation between 18z Thursday and 00z Friday as
the upper level trough crosses western Kansas. Visibilities will
improve from 1-3SM to P6SM by late morning as gusty north
northeast winds continue at 15 to 20 knots. These gusty winds will
decrease after 00z Friday as a surface ridge axis will build into
western Kansas.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 47 27 59 34 / 60 10 0 0
GCK 43 28 58 33 / 70 20 0 0
EHA 47 28 62 36 / 60 0 0 0
LBL 50 28 60 35 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 42 27 53 31 / 80 40 0 0
P28 57 35 60 33 / 20 0 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

1109 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

UPSTREAM THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS AND THEY ARE
GRADUALLY ADVECTING BACK INTO EASTERN KY AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ROTATES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THESE WILL LIKELY WORK ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO HAVE RAISED SKY COVER OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY.
THIS ALSO LED TO AN INCREASE IN A FEW VALLEY TEMPERATURES. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND A ZFP WILL BE ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

WIND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS THE
WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE 8 PM EDT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
LATE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO NOW EXITED TO THE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT. THERE
IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN KY AND ON INTO
IL AND INDIANA WHILE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS OVER MUCH OF TN AND PARTS
OF SOUTHERN KY. OPTED TO INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS THE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND IN MANY AREAS FOR A WHILE. WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP
BASED ON THE RECENT TRENDS. MODELS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO ABOUT
-4C AROUND DAWN...SO HAVE OPTED TO LOWER MIN T ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN INTO THE UPPER 20S.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED
TO THE SOUTH AND MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT IS
PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AND SHORT
LIVED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EAST KENTUCKY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE SURROUNDING THIS BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THAT WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FRONT ALSO BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER WITH LOWER 50S AIR FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA REPLACING
THE MID 60S CURRENTLY SEEN THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S INBOUND RATHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S THAT PRECEDE THE FRONT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL
TAKE A SLOWLY DAMPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOME ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING BUT ITS IMPACT WOULD BE MITIGATED BY THE
RISING HEIGHTS. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL FAVOR THE HRRR EARLY ON
AND THEN A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS...GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PRE-FIRST PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WILL
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH NOW THAT THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAS BEEN DONE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXPIRING. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EXITING RAINS WILL HOLD IN FOR MANY MORE HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO...CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT RIDGETOP THAN IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNSHINE FOR SATURDAY WITH
SEASONABLY LOWER HEIGHTS LIMITING THE WARMUP TO THE MID 50S IN MOST
PLACES WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT A BETTER AND MORE
TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST AND ALSO ALLOWS SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE NORTH INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH LATER IN
THE NIGHT.

FOR MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GRIDS...USED THE BC/CONSSHORT AS A STARTING
POINT WITH LITTLE ADJUSTMENT GIVEN THE CAA PATTERN. THEREAFTER...
POPULATED WITH THE CONSALL SUITE AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...
PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS AND SATURDAY DEWPOINTS. FOR
POPS...OUTSIDE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS...KEPT THEM LOW...IN LINE WITH
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH
OF KENTUCKY AND TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUPPORTED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL LIMIT ONSET...THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD OVERPOWER THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOLER
WEATHER RETURNING BY MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
FREE WEATHER LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BY MID WEEK...PROVIDING RAIN
FREE WEATHER FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS...MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPSTREAM CLOUDS ARE IN THE
VFR RANGE AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. SME
AND LOZ SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE SOME INITIAL
MVFR AT JKL AND SJS WILL TRANSITION TO VFR BY AROUND 2Z. WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
SLACKEN OVERNIGHT.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

847 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

252 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Main concern in the short term is severe weather and flooding
potential tonight.

Over the past 24 hours...three convective complexes have affected
parts of the forecast area. These complexes were forecast very
poorly by the models...including the high res mesoscale models.
Based on the poor track record of the models...there is not a high
degree of confidence in the evolution of convection tonight.

Widespread convection earlier today stabilized much of southern
Illinois...southwest Indiana...and northwest Kentucky. To the
south of this activity...SPC objective analysis charts indicate
surface based capes from 1000 to 2000 j/kg as of 19z...but also
some convective inhibition. NAM/RAP model soundings indicate a
warm layer around 750 to 800 mb that may be capping development.
This warm layer will erode this evening...but then lapse rates
below 850 mb become poor.

By 04z widespread convection will develop or move into the
forecast area as a potent 500 mb shortwave over the Plains lifts
northeast...producing strong deep layer forcing in a very moist
environment. RAP forecast soundings indicate the low level jet
will increase to 60 knots as it shifts east to the Mississippi
River around or shortly after 00z. In general...shear profiles and
hodographs will become more favorable for supercells by
00z...especially west of the Kentucky Lake region. The potential
limiting factor will be low to mid level lapse rates...as noted
above.

Wind fields will become more unidirectional late this
evening...as evidenced by curved hodographs becoming more straight
line. This will result in a transition to a linear /qlcs/ storm
mode...with damaging straight line winds the primary threat.
Isolated qlcs tornadoes will be possible.

Convective complexes over the past 24 hours have produced locally
heavy rainfall...leading to some isolated flash flooding. With a
strong low level jet and unseasonably moist air mass in
place...there is a potential for more heavy rain. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued to address this potential. These complexes
have missed most of southeast Missouri...so that area was not
included in the watch.

The cold front will exit the khop/kevv areas by 12z...bringing an
end to all activity. There may be considerable instability
cu/stratocu during the day...per gfs and nam model soundings.
Temps will generally remain steady in the 50s with gusty
northwest winds.

Friday night through Saturday night will be mainly clear and cool
with some potential for frost in the early morning hours. Surface
high pressure will pass over or just north of the forecast area on
Saturday.

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

The next weather system takes shape to our south Sunday, and for at
least the second consecutive day, moves in with pcpn Sunday night
and extends that at least through part of early next week.

This happens as a broad long wave trof carves out across the eastern
half of the country, with us in the cool/damp flow underneath. We`ll
go ahead and accept the allblended pops for the Sunday night through
Tuesday time period, focusing on the best chance time period Sunday
night as the system lifts out. Elevated instability there continues
to support the isolated mention of thunder we inherited, so we kept
it.

Temps remain in balance with consistently forecast highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. These
represent values some 10 degrees or more below climo norms for this
time of year...though some hint at warming a little toward the end
of the period is noted.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Active convection will take low VFR or MVFR conditions to temporary
IFR conditions. Cold frontal passage tonight will mark most
restrictive flight conditions, with severe weather possible from
late afternoon til system passes. Strong gusty southerlies ahead of
the system will shift to the west late tonight after its passage.
Clouds should disperse tomorrow morning and return to VFR flight
conditions in the wake of the system`s departure.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ001>022.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ076-087-111-112.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...DH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

329 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL MEANDER ABOUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SENDING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AFTER THIS EVENING BUT LOOKING OVER
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT TO SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN POTENTIALLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD BACK TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT. THEN...SHOWERS
AND STORM WILL REENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER. WITH TREES YET TO LEAF OUT
HERE LOCALLY (AND THUS NOT ABSORBING THE AMOUNT OF GROUNDWATER THEY
WOULD WHEN FULLY LEAFED) AND PWATS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...RUNOFF FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND POOR DRAINING URBAN AREAS.

THE OTHER CONCERN REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE IS APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. THINK THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL
BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
TOMORROW/S THREAT AGAIN REVOLVES AROUND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
BUILD BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CURRENT PROJECTIONS PUT THE
FRONT THROUGH HERE AROUND MIDDAY...SO THAT WOULD SUPPORT A LESSER
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAN SHOULD THE FRONT COME THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH SO A WIND HEADLINE WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE PERIOD WILL END QUIETLY AS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR
EAST END EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...WITH SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN OUR WESTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING A RELATIVELY
NICE...BUT COOLER WEEKEND. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO THE
60S BY SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST REGION LATE SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION AND ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
PLACE EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG TROUGHING SETTLING INTO THE REGION. THIS
TROUGHING IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING
COOLER AND PERHAPS UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. THUS...AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH FINALLY STARTS TO PULL OUT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN AS COLD AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH IS
NOT COLD ENOUGH. WARMER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TIMING THE INITIAL LINE INTO THE TAF SITES
IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
IMPACTS AFTER THAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH
DRIER. WILL LEAN ON THE HRRR MODEL AS IT APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING MUCH
BETTER LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR DATA. THIS WILL YIELD A PROLONGED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A VCTS/CB
MENTION BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z WITH THE INITIAL LINE AND THEN AGAIN
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SURFACE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

201 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED WITH TENDENCY FOR THE INBOUND
LINE OF CONVECTION TO BECOME WEST-EAST ORIENTED ON ITS SOUTHERN END.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ONGOING OVER ARKANSAS IS SHOWN BY THE HRRR TO
RIDE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. WITH TREES YET TO
LEAF OUT HERE LOCALLY (AND THUS NOT ABSORBING THE AMOUNT OF
GROUNDWATER THEY WOULD WHEN FULLY LEAFED) AND PWATS PROGGED TO
APPROACH THE 99TH PERCENTILE...RUNOFF FROM THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
AND POOR DRAINING URBAN AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND RAN THE WATCH THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING FORECAST...GRAPHICAL AND WEB PRODUCTS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED HRRR CLOSELY AS IT IS MATCHING UP
WELL WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CONCERNED THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW INCREASING DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...IN
ADVANCE OF EASTBOUND MCS APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE FROM CELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE...AND THEN WITH THE LINE ITSELF. ALSO CONCERNED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTHERN END
OF THE MCS WILL MOVE FASTER THAN THE SOUTHERN END AND THE LINE OF
STORMS MAY BECOME ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA...AND DESPITE THE OVERALL WARMING TREND TO THE CLOUD TOPS
AS SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL WIND UP
MEASURING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST
HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER WITH A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
STRETCHED EASTWARD. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE
MCS ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE...AND THE CORE OF ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE TAMER PARTS OF THE FIRST MENTIONED COMPLEX OF STORMS.

THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS...AND HAVE ALIGNED THE FORECAST CLOSE TO
ITS SOLUTION THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH DAWN...BEFORE THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX DISSIPATES AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENTLY BEEFIER
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR THE BEST
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND LESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS LOOK
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AND A SMALL WINDOW OF CLOUD THINNING BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME.

POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THERE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE...HOWEVER ADVERTISED INSTABILITY ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE STRONGER WINDS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
CROSSES OUT OF THE OH VALLEY...LEAVING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF THE KY TN BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS CYCLOGENESIS KICKS
INTO GEAR AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. THIS
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH SHAPING UP...WILL
ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THIS PATTERN...THE GFS
AND EURO DO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTH. THE EURO BUYS INTO A DEVELOPED
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS OUT AND BRINGS WRAP AROUND
PRECIP INTO EAST KY WHERE THE GFS SENDS IT OUT TO SEA. THIS IN
MIND...HAVE SURELY STAYED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTION IN THE DAY
6 AND 7 RANGE.

IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IS IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK...WE WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE 50S AND 60S RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...GEORGERIAN/ABE
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1237 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATED...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR BESIDES SOME TEMPORARY MVFR WITHIN A MORE
INTENSE PASSING SHOWER OR STORM. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NAILING DOWN SPECIFIC TIMES CONTINUES
TO BE PROBLEMATIC...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A VCTS FROM 16Z
ONWARD. BY 00Z OR SO...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL ALSO
ENGAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK. A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A
THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-
106>120.

UPDATE...GEORGERIAN/ABE
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1114 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...ABE
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

809 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

TARTING FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
CROSSES OUT OF THE OH VALLEY...LEAVING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF THE KY TN BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS CYCLOGENESIS KICKS
INTO GEAR AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. THIS
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH SHAPING UP...WILL
ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL FINALLY BRING AND END TO THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THIS PATTERN...THE GFS
AND EURO DO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTH. THE EURO BUYS INTO A DEVELOPED
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS OUT AND BRINGS WRAP AROUND
PRECIP INTO EAST KY WHERE THE GFS SENDS IT OUT TO SEA. THIS IN
MIND...HAVE SURELY STAYED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTION IN THE DAY
6 AND 7 RANGE.

IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IN IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW THE...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE FIRST COUPLE WEEKS OF SPRING...WE
WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S
RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

635 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IN IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW THE...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE FIRST COUPLE WEEKS OF SPRING...WE
WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S
RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 THROUGH
10Z...INCLUDING SME AND LOZ...HOWEVER EXPECT OVERALL CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN VFR BESIDES SOME TEMPORARY MVFR WITHIN A MORE INTENSE PASSING
SHOWER. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
TIMES AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE DURING THE
DAY...HOWEVER CAN NOT INCLUDE MORE THAN A VCTS FOR NOW FROM 15Z
ONWARD UNTIL TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR. BY 00Z...THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
WILL ALSO ENGAGE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IN IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW THE...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE FIRST COUPLE WEEKS OF SPRING...WE
WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S
RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

218 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRETTY SUSTAINED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE AID OF A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS AT 850 MB FEEDING IN MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA. THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STARTING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...AND THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
CONVECTION GRADUALLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS. AS SUCH...HAVE
BEEFED UP THE POPS OVERNIGHT...AND ALLOWED FOR SOME SPILL OVER TO THE
NORTH...WHERE ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX MAY SPAWN
NEW CONVECTION. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014

MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS. ALSO
UPDATED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY TO BETTER DEPICT THE ANTICIPATED AREAL
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD
BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO...HAS SINCE MADE A SUDDEN SHIFT IN MOVEMENT TO THE EAST.
THIS CELL HAS SPAWNED OTHER SMALLER STORMS AROUND IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH BOYLE...MERCER...AND GERRARD COUNTIES. IF THIS SMALL CLUSTER
OF STORMS CONTINUE ON THEIR CURRENT DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT...PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY COULD EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY 1Z THIS EVENING. THE
MODELS REALLY HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY YET...SO ALL
UPDATES THAT WERE MADE WERE BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 3Z THIS
EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014

THIS AFTERNOON A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM EASTERN KY
TO SOUTHERN IL...AND THEN TO LOW PRESSURE OVER OK. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS OCCURRED ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WAS FURTHER WEST
WHERE THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WAS PROVIDING BETTER INFLOW FROM THE
GULF. FORECAST MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THE CONVECTION ALL THAT WELL
TODAY...A SIGN OF THE WARM SEASON WEATHER PATTERN WHICH WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE COMMON IN THE COMING WEEKS. TRYING TO TIME/TRACK
CONVECTIVE PRECIP WILL BE A CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
AT THIS POINT...IT IS BETTER TO DEAL IN GENERALITIES. AS THE LOW
HEADS NE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS WE WILL SEE AN OVERALL
INCREASE IN POP WITH TIME. TRYING TO FIND A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE NAM
AND GFS YIELDS AN ENHANCED POP LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD
FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH KY. WINDS
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT OUR INSTABILITY WILL
BE RATHER WEAK. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAINTAINS ITSELF AND ARRIVES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE MORNING OR DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THIS DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG AND ANY
SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY AND AN
EVEN GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE
DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT IS
THEN PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST SPREADING CLOUDS BACK INTO OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON
MONDAY. SOME RAIN SHADOWING MAY OCCUR WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL AFFECT MOST
EVERYBODY SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EITHER...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER BEHIND OVER OUR REGION. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN OUR
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

1221 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section only.

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

Main concern in the short term is severe weather potential...with
the greatest risk expected late Thursday through Thursday night.

In the near term...a strong surface warm front was located just
south of a line from kmdh to kowb at 19z. The models have been too
quick to lift the front northward. Relied on the HRRR guidance for
this front...meaning the front will be nearly stationary from the
kevv/kowb area to kmdh well into the evening. The front may not
clear the Interstate 64 corridor until midnight or later. Widespread
elevated convection north of the front should remain generally along
and north of I 64.

Late this evening into the overnight hours...showers and storms will
increase in coverage across the entire region as the southwest flow
aloft becomes more active. The models indicate a series of weak
impulses originating in the subtropical Pacific will begin to affect
our region. In the lower levels...the southerly low level jet will
increase to between 40 and 50 knots by 12z. Some locally heavy rain
is possible...mainly across southern IL and southeast MO. The severe
weather potential will be rather limited by lack of surface based
instability. Enough elevated instability will be present for some
hailers...especially given wet bulb zero heights around 10k feet.
Damaging wind potential will be limited by weak low level lapse
rates.

On Thursday...there may be a lull in the activity during the
morning. Activity should increase during the afternoon as daytime
heating destabilizes the atmosphere. The 12z gfs/09z sref indicate
surface based capes will be near 2000 j/kg later in the afternoon
across southeast MO and southwest IL. The shear/instability
parameters are strongly favorable for supercells across Missouri
during the afternoon. Any activity that forms east of the
Mississippi River will be in a less favorable environment for
supercell structures.

By late Thursday night...the activity is likely to congeal into a
QLCS by the time it reaches sw Indiana and the Pennyrile region of
west Kentucky. By midnight...the environment will be characterized
by high shear and low cape. This should result in more of a wind
threat than hail or tornadoes. During the transition period in the
evening hours...any combination of organized storm structures could
occur...producing damaging wind/large hail/tornadoes. This
transition appears likely to occur across southern IL and far west
Kentucky.

Storm total qpf for the entire short term period is currently
forecast from around 1.5 to almost 3 inches...with the highest
amounts in southern IL and southeast MO. These amounts are not
expected to cause significant flooding problems over a widespread
area. Localized higher amounts /isolated flooding remains possible.

The cold front will move east across the kevv/khop areas around 12z
Friday...ending all precipitation. Strong drying in the wake of the
front should result in mainly sunny skies by afternoon. Temps will
remain nearly steady in the upper 50s to lower 60s through the day.
Friday night will be markedly colder as surface high pressure
provides clear skies and decreasing winds. Some frost or even a
light freeze is possible early Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

After the mid week system makes passage, we cool off for the weekend
and cool temps stick around through the remainder of the long term
portion of the forecast.

Dry weather prevails in a zonal flow pattern through the weekend.
Another system takes shape as a long wave trof carves across the
southern Plains. A surface low develops and lifts across the lower
MS valley, bringing our next bout of rain/showers into/across the
PAH FA mainly Sunday night-Monday. This happens as a broad long wave
trof carves out across the eastern half of the country, with us in
the cool/damp flow underneath.

Net result will be a cool back into the upper 50s and lower 60s for
highs this weekend, continuing into/through next week. Lows likewise
cool back into the 40s with even some upper 30s not out of the
question. These represent values some 10 degrees or more below climo
norms for this time of year.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

An increasing low level jet will result in continued late night
showers/tstms that will restrict cigs to MVFR, and vsbys to IFR at
times. Rainfall is expected to continue for at least part of the
morning Thu, under IFR cigs. During Thu afternoon, some strong to
severe thunderstorm activity is possible in scattered/isolated
fashion, with not enough timing/placement certainty to mention in
the TAFs at this time. Stronger action is expected with system
passage tomorrow night, in a more consolidated form, starting near
midnight. Meanwhile, southerly winds will increase in speed and
become gusty Thursday, on approach of a fast-moving cold front.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

1245 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE
DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014

MOSTLY VFR WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING SOME MVFR AND
IFR AT TIMES FROM AROUND 12Z-18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF KJKL.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. THE
ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE THIS EVENING...AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FIRED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING STEADILY
EASTWARD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 0 AND
1Z THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...ANTICIPATE THESE STORMS COULD STILL HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE AIRPORT AT JKL BY 2Z THIS EVENING. WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
SHOULD THEY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT TO JKL. THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN 9
AND 10Z. GOING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR NOW...BUT
CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE QUICKLY TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY THE ONES THAT COULD MOVE INTO JKL IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

425 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF JUST
EMERGING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE TO THE SOUTH...A
PACIFIC JET WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BAJA AND NORTHERN MX. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...A 30-40KT LLJ CONTINUES ACROSS EAST TX/WRN LA PER
AREA VWPS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AND INTO THE NE GOMEX. TO THE WEST...A SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER ERN
KS...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT THROUGH ERN OK INTO NORTHERN TX.

LIFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AS REGION FALLS
UNDERNEATH THE DIFLUENT REGION BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF
PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ROUGHLY COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR THE 12HR PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON TOMORROW.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE INDICATIONS THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DEPICTED BY THE RUC AND HRRR MAY BE STARTING...WITH SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED ECHOES STARTING TO APPEAR ON REGIONAL RADARS. THIS DOES
LEND A LITTLE CREDENCE TO NAM/RUC FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED
EROSION OF THE CINH SEEN IN EARLIER RAOBS AROUND THIS TIME. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. IN ANY
EVENT...THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE KEPT SEVERE WORDING IN THE FCST
FOR TONIGHT...AND EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR ACADIANA. THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE POP FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY
TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE ONLY A
SHORT REPRIEVE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FCST TO BEGIN SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER...MORE SOUTHERN TRACKED...UPPER TROF. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
SE TX COAST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS LOUISIANA...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY PULL A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE APPEAR POSSIBLE
FOR A TWO DAY TOTAL...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
RISK SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE MEAN TROF WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS MILD BUT OTHERWISE BENIGN WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WED...THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A
MODERATING TREND BEGINNING THURSDAY.

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL GULF WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY SEA FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO AND THEN STALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FOR THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW AFFECTS
THE COASTAL WATERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 67 79 56 68 / 60 40 10 60
KBPT 68 78 57 68 / 60 30 10 60
KAEX 66 76 51 68 / 80 30 10 40
KLFT 68 81 57 69 / 60 60 20 60

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ACADIA-CALCASIEU-
EAST CAMERON-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST.
MARTIN-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

PUBLIC/MARINE...13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

245 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THAT AS OF 2 PM...SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING NEAR 1500-2000J/KG WITH LI`S RANGING FROM -4 TO -6. OUR
SAVING GRACE THUS FAR HAS BEEN SBCIN VALUES RANGING NEAR
100-200J/KG. WHERE THE CAP IS BREAKING IS ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH
AS OF 2 PM WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF ADM...TO JUST WEST OF DTO
AND BWD. MESOANALYSIS CLOSER TO OUR AREA SHOWS THAT OUR REGION OF
LESS CINH WAS ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND THAT IS WHERE WE ARE
STARTING TO GET STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION POP UP THIS AFTN.

WILL BASE THIS EVENTS FORECAST CLOSELY ON THE HRRR FOR THE NEXT
18 TO 24 HOURS AND A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT/LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NAM/WRF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. HRRR SHOWING DRYLINE CONVECTION GROWING AND
INCREASING IN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHER THAN WHAT WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE I-30
CORRIDOR IN THE REGION OF WEAKER CINH...FEEL LIKE THE I-35 DRYLINE
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES BETWEEN
23-01Z. THESE CELLS...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT...
WILL EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THAT ORDER. THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES OF
TORNADO WATCH #52 BY OR SHORTLY CLOSE TO 02Z THIS EVENING WHEN THE
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF S AR/NE
TX AND N LA. IT APPEARS WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z THIS
EVENING WITH CONVECTION REACHING A MLU TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND LINE
BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. BEHIND THE EASTWARD PROPAGATING LINE WILL
LIKELY BE RENEWED CONVECTION ALONG THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR NW MOST ZONES BETWEEN 03-06Z. NOT
EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO BE SEVERE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS
OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE TRUE
FRONT ITSELF. FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE DRYLINE
TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT OUR EXTREME SE PARISHES BY
12Z FRI. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RUNNING FOR OUR SE ZONES IN THE
MORNING BUT ANYTHING THAT`S LEFT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NW GULF COAST
FOR SATURDAY AND BEGINS TO RETURN BACK NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY AS SFC
CYCLOGENESIS FORMS ON THE FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SE TX COAST AND
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARDS MLU SUN EVENING AND
NEAR MEMPHIS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND
EVENT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL RESULT IN OVERRUNNING
CONVECTION AND GIVEN FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS
OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN LIFT
FROM THE COAST ON SUNDAY...THERE COULD BE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY AND ATTM...THAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES OR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LOWER TOLEDO BEND TO
MONROE LOUISIANA LINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE
EVENT GETS NEARER IN TIME. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 03/18Z TAFS...COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN FCST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION EXISTS AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF I-30 HAS
BEEN ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. MOVEMENT OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
PREDICTED. THUS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING OF CONVECTION COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS ISSUANCES. ABUNDANT CU WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HRS BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL. CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ONCE THE CONVECTION OCCURS. THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF TSTMS AS ONE BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE WHILE ANOTHER DEVELOPS A FEW HRS LATER AS A COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR QUICKLY
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. /09/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 56 71 46 67 51 / 70 0 0 20 40
MLU 63 74 46 65 50 / 70 20 0 20 50
DEQ 49 67 38 66 47 / 70 0 0 10 20
TXK 52 68 44 66 49 / 70 0 0 10 30
ELD 56 71 43 66 49 / 70 0 0 10 40
TYR 51 70 46 65 50 / 70 0 0 20 30
GGG 53 70 46 66 50 / 70 0 0 20 30
LFK 57 72 48 67 54 / 50 10 10 30 40

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

101 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF TUL WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR AN OKC...SPS...ABI LINE. DRYLINE
REMAINS JUST WEST OF A ABI...SJT LINE AS WELL. CONVECTION THUS FAR
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX/SE OK AND W
AR HAS BEEN ELEVATED AS THEIR REMAINS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS CAP TRYING TO ERODE ALONG
AND NEAR A LINE HUGO OKLAHOMA TO NEAR TERRELL TX AND AS A
RESULT...NEW CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
LINE MAY BE TRYING TO BECOME ROOTED BELOW THE 35HDFT CAPPING
INVERSION THAT WAS PREVALENT IN THE 12Z RAOBS FROM FWD AND SHV.
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE PLANED AN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING SO THIS
WILL TELL US MORE.

CONCERNING THE UPDATE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HAVE DISCOUNTED
THE 12Z NAM AS IT CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER THIS AFTERNOON...
SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST IS ALL WE MAY SEE...
EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE MERGER BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF N TX. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN
QUICKLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE REGION BEYOND 00Z THIS
EVENING WITH NEW CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LINE...OR INTO OUR REGION. THUS...FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT NOT BY MUCH. KEPT
LIKELY WORDING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES HOWEVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WITH BREAKS IN THE OVC OUTSIDE PRESENTLY...WE ARE REALLY STARTING
TO MIX STRONGER WINDS DOWN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20KTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION AS OF 15Z. FOR THIS REASON...
BUMPED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS UPWARD...THUS NO CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY FOR THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD BREAKS...HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE
WHAT THE CURRENT FCST INDICATED SO BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP JUST A
DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE BOARD.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 84 56 71 46 69 / 40 60 0 0 20
MLU 84 63 74 46 68 / 20 80 10 0 20
DEQ 79 49 67 38 67 / 60 60 0 0 10
TXK 83 52 68 44 68 / 40 60 0 0 10
ELD 83 56 71 43 68 / 40 80 0 0 10
TYR 84 51 70 46 66 / 40 50 0 0 20
GGG 84 53 70 46 68 / 40 60 0 0 20
LFK 85 57 72 48 69 / 30 60 10 10 30

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

06/09

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

1104 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF TUL WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR AN OKC...SPS...ABI LINE. DRYLINE
REMAINS JUST WEST OF A ABI...SJT LINE AS WELL. CONVECTION THUS FAR
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX/SE OK AND W
AR HAS BEEN ELEVATED AS THEIR REMAINS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS CAP TRYING TO ERODE ALONG
AND NEAR A LINE HUGO OKLAHOMA TO NEAR TERRELL TX AND AS A
RESULT...NEW CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
LINE MAY BE TRYING TO BECOME ROOTED BELOW THE 35HDFT CAPPING
INVERSION THAT WAS PREVALENT IN THE 12Z RAOBS FROM FWD AND SHV.
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE PLANED AN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING SO THIS
WILL TELL US MORE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AT AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH BRISK SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT 10-20KTS FOR MOST WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE MID MORNING
AND ALL AFTERNOON. OUR CLIMB WINDS BACK RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE TO
SW 20-40KTS ON INTO THE MID LEVELS. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EDGING
INTO CENTRAL TX NOW AND WILL SWING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES THAT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS 21Z-0409Z /24/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 83 56 71 46 69 / 50 60 0 0 20
MLU 83 63 74 46 68 / 30 80 10 0 20
DEQ 79 49 67 38 67 / 60 60 0 0 10
TXK 81 52 68 44 68 / 50 60 0 0 10
ELD 82 56 71 43 68 / 50 80 0 0 10
TYR 82 51 70 46 66 / 50 50 0 0 20
GGG 82 53 70 46 68 / 50 60 0 0 20
LFK 84 57 72 48 69 / 40 60 10 10 30

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

217 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. THEN A MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 WILL SEE JUST RAIN...BUT
AREAS NORTH OF I-96 WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN COULD RECEIVE UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.

COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

ADDED JACKSON AND CALHOUN TO THE ADVISORY. ICING AMOUNTS OVER A
TENTH BEING REPORTED WITH SOME SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES SHOWING UP.
BAND OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

TOUGH FORECAST AS THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
ON TOP OF US. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ADVISORY TODAY WILL BE
STRETCHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING. DOWN TO 33 AT LANSING AND MASON...31 AT ROCKFORD AND LAKE
ODESSA...32 AT IONIA AND CEDAR SPRINGS. WITH THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION STARTING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...IT
APPEARS TO ME THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. I COULD BE WRONG HERE...BUT THAT HAS BEEN THE
TREND. FLIGHTS OUT OF KGRR SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT IT WAS
LIKELY DRY AT THAT TIME. LOOKS LIKE A MIX FOR PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF GRR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME TIMING DETAIL TO BRINGING THE
RAIN INTO THE AREA THEN ALLOWING THE WET BULB COOLING TO RESULT IN
FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING FROM
ALMA TO ROCKFORD AND THE DEW POINT IN THOSE AREAS WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. WET BULB TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO AS LONG AS THE HRRR IS CORRECT ABOUT BRINGING THE
AREA OF RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO ONTO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE 9-10 AM TIME FRAME... WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE ENOUGH...EVEN AFTER
SUNRISE TO COOL THE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THOSE AREA TO BELOW
FREEZING AND CAUSE THE FORECAST FREEZING RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR.

THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.

FIRST OFF THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE STEADY PCPN AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. AND THE GFS LOOKS QUITE DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF FGEN TYPE PCPN THIS MORNING. WE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO WET
BULB DOWN WITHIN THE SCATTERED POCKETS OF PCPN THIS MORNING...SO
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE UP FOR THE SAME AREA...AS EVEN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE ISSUES. BUT WILL
END THE HEADLINES AT NOON EVERYWHERE AS THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER AND EVEN MORE SCATTERED INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ALONG I-94 WHERE THE COMPLEX OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO SHOULD COME ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE FAR NORTHERN CWA....NEAR HIGHWAY 10...MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
ANY GLAZE WILL BE JUST ON METAL SURFACES AND ROAD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
THROUGH THE 30S. AND BECAUSE WE NOW EXPECT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE SECOND BATCH OF MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER PCPN ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING A LOW LEVEL JET WITH STRONG FORCING. THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FORCING.

BUT OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
SECOND BATCH OF PCPN MOVES IN. THIS IS WHEN EFFICIENT WET BULB
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS THE PCPN WILL BE HEAVIER AND A
PERIOD HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-96 SHOULD BEGIN TO GLAZE OVER WITH ICE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
SOME AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THEREFORE WILL PUT MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-96 BACK INTO ANOTHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM AND RUN IT
THROUGH 8 AM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA...SO WILL END THE
ADVISORY FOR OCEANA TO GRATIOT COUNTIES AT 4 AM.

SO BOTTOM LINE...THE MORNING EVENT WAS NOT PANNING OUT NEARLY AS
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER WE SHOULD
NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR THE EVENT TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BE RATHER
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO ALMA LINE.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. EXPECT STRONG WINDS OF 35-40 MPH
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

AS ONE STORM MOVES OUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP AND READY TO MOVE
IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LARGELY LOOKS LIKE A RAIN EVENT BUT
SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THAT SYSTEM IS DONE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE TRULY COLD AIR WELL NORTH IN CANADA AND THE
REALLY WARM AIR WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
ENCOURAGE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS.

AS WE HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS... THERE IS ONE
FINAL SOUTHERN STREAM STORM COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL IMPACT MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM IS
ENHANCED BY A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER STORM CROSSING THE DATELINE
DURING TODAY. THAT SYSTEM BUILDS A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST
COAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THAT IN TURN DEEPENS THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN HELPS OUR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLOW DOWN
ENOUGH TO TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY OF LATE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE
UPSTREAM RIDGING HELPING THE SYSTEM... I HAVE TO BELIEVE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES MAKE SENSE. MORE THAN ANYTHING
ELSE THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM FOR THIS AREA. I COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES TAP
ENOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ONCE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA THAT THE RAIN
MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE A RAIN EVENT.
THIS WILL NOT HELP OUR HYDRO ISSUES... THAT IS FOR SURE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

LOCAL RADAR SHOWS PCPN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
LOOK FOR THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL OBS SHOW A
LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THESE LOW CIGS WILL
MOVE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH INTO THE AREA.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

LITTLE CHANGE ON AREA RIVERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED EVEN AFTER ADDITIONAL
RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OBSERVED SLIGHT DECLINES
OVER THE GRAND RIVER BASIN...WITH STEADY OR SLIGHT RISES ON THE
MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN. SLIGHT RISES ON THE KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME NO RIVERS ON
THIS BASIN ARE FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL.

WITH A GENERALLY DRY WEEKEND...RIVERS SHOULD RECEDE A BIT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. IF WE GET PAST MONDAY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAIN...RIVER LEVELS WILL DROP A FAIR AMOUNT NEXT WEEK.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ050-
056>059-066-067-073-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-
046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-
052.

LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...HOVING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

159 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

TOUGH FORECAST AS THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
ON TOP OF US. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ADVISORY TODAY WILL BE
STRETCHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ050-
056>059-066-067-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-
046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-
052.

LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...HOVING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

104 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

TOUGH FORECAST AS THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
ON TOP OF US. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ADVISORY TODAY WILL BE
STRETCHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

IT SEEMS THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES SO
I DID NOT PUT FREEZING RAIN IN ANY OF OUR TAF FORECASTS. EVEN
SO... IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THE I-96 TAF SITES COULD SEE
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING (WET
BULB COOLING ONCE THE RAIN STARTS).

THE HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF RAIN NEAR CHI REACHING THE GRR AREA IN
THE 14Z TIME FRAME. ONCE IT REACHES THIS AREA I EXPECT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE I-94 TAF SITES BRINGING IFR VSBY FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES THROUGH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE TODAY. THIS RAIN AREA WILL
MOVE OUT BY MID AFTERNOON THEN JUST MVFR CIGS UNTIL THE FRONTAL
RAIN BAND MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SHOULD BRING IFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH IT AN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ050-
056>059-066-067-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-
046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-
052.

LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1041 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

TOUGH FORECAST AS THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
ON TOP OF US. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ADVISORY TODAY WILL BE
STRETCHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014

CRESTS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY DOWN AREA RIVERS. THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. JUST ADVISORIES OUT TO COVER THE
SITUATION. THAT COULD CHANGE TOMORROW OR FRIDAY.

A SURGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GENERAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE
PREDICTED. THIS WOULD CAUSE LEVELS TO RESUME RISING IN THE
TRIBUTARIES BY FRIDAY. IN MOST CASES THIS WOULD RESULT IN
EXTENDING MANY OF THE ADVISORIES. IF WE START TO SEE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING WOULD
INCREASE. AS A RESULT AS THIS IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...IT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ050-
056>059-066-067.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-
046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-
052.

LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

743 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014

CRESTS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY DOWN AREA RIVERS. THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. JUST ADVISORIES OUT TO COVER THE
SITUATION. THAT COULD CHANGE TOMORROW OR FRIDAY.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ037-043-
050>052-056>059-066-067.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ038>040-
044>046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-052.

LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

EVEN AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY LARGELY VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AOA 4K FT AND VSBYS AOA
6SM. IT MAY ACTUALLY TAKE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CONDITIONS TO
FALL INTO MVFR AND IFR WHEN THE MAIN SLUG OF RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM COMES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN STORY ON THURSDAY
WILL BE THE STRONG SFC WINDS OUT OF THE EAST GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.

CONFIDENCE IS LOWERING REGARDING THE ICING THREAT AT MKG/GRR/LAN
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING SINCE CURRENT TEMPERATURES AT
MIDNIGHT ARE AROUND 40 AND PRECIP AMOUNTS/COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRZG RN AND SLEET IS STILL
POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY 11Z-16Z... THE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY HIGH.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014

CRESTS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY DOWN AREA RIVERS. THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. JUST ADVISORIES OUT TO COVER THE
SITUATION. THAT COULD CHANGE TOMORROW OR FRIDAY.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ037-043-
050>052-056>059-066-067.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ038>040-
044>046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-046.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-052.

LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

651 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND WE
DROPPED THE WARNING FOR BAYFIELD/SAWYER/PRICE COUNTIES EARLIER
THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE REMAINING
WARNINGS FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS WELL SOON AS VSBYS HAVE
IMPROVED QUITE A BIT AT KIWD.

FURTHER WEST...CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER OUR MINNESOTA
ZONES...WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS EXPANDING JUST WEST OF OUR CWA. WE
DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER WEST OF A KAIT TO KCDD LINE THIS EVENING.
THE RAP DOES BRING THESE CLOUDS EAST THIS EVENING...THEN HAS THEM
DIMINISHING LATE EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

THE MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT BROUGHT AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS A FOOT AND
A HALF TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT. A GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BAND OF SNOW HAD SET UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD AND PINE COUNTY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE MECHANISM RESPONSIBLE APPEARS TO BE SHUTTING
OFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REMOVE MORE COUNTIES FROM THE
WARNING. WILL HANG ON TO THE WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF NW
WI...SPECIFICALLY BAYFIELD AND SAWYER COUNTY EASTWARD. HEAVY SNOW
RECENTLY AT THE IRONWOOD STATION...WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT
ASHLAND. THINK THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO MORE IN SPOTS FOR THE
EVENING...WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE. THE HRRR ACTUALLY CUTS THINGS OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY
THOUGH THIS EVENING SO THAT WOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS IF THINGS SHUT OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL ALSO HANG ON TO SOME FLURRIES FURTHER
WESTWARD AS SOME DIURNAL CLOUD COVER HAD DEVELOPED AND BROUGHT
SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.

ONCE THE SNOW COMES TO AN END TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE
TEENS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTH.

THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF MELTING ON SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S. ONLY
EXCEPTION IN TERMS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

OVERALL PATTERN THIS PERIOD FEATURES A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED
NEAR FRNTL BDRY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS IT INITIALLY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO CWA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY SO LOW POPS REMAIN IN FCST
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THE OVERALL FORCING IS QUITE WEAK AND DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A DRY SPELL WILL UNFOLD
TUES/WED BEFORE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WED
NIGHT/THUR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM 3500-5000FT. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 4000FT WAS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE RAP
DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS MOVING EAST THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHES
THEM LATE EVENING.

WE ADDED SOME FOG TO THE TAFS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR LATE. WE DID NOT LOWER REMAIN AND THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN AREAS LATE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 16 39 28 44 / 10 0 20 10
INL 14 45 26 46 / 0 0 20 10
BRD 16 45 29 48 / 0 0 10 20
HYR 12 42 29 47 / 20 0 20 20
ASX 14 40 28 44 / 50 0 20 20

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR WIZ003-004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

1247 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

Ingredients are coming together for what will likely be a widespread
severe weather event from the Interstate 70 corridor in Missouri and
Illinois...southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The main
threat area includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme
southeastern Kansas.

As of 3 AM...a warm front was located from just north of Nevada to
around Rolla. North of this front, elevated convection has been
ongoing for much of the night from the Interstate 70 corridor,
south towards Clinton and Sedalia. A few of these storms have
produce large hail. South of the front, we have seen isolated to
widely scattered elevated convection try and get going as a broad
low level jet has developed across the Ozarks.

As we get into the predawn and after dawn hours, that warm front
will continue to lift north as strong height falls begin to
overspread the Plains. Mesoscale models continue to indicate some
potential for scattered elevated convection across the Ozarks as
smaller scale enhancement to the broad low level jet work over the
region. Otherwise, the main play for convection will continue to
be up across northern and central Missouri. A low end severe hail
threat will continue with any storms that do develop as lapse
rates remain steep above an elevated mixed layer (EML).

As we get into later this morning and this afternoon, upper level
energy will pivot and emerge across the central High Plains. As this
happens, surface low pressure will track from south-central Kansas
up into northwestern Missouri by 00 UTC. South of this low, a cold
front will overtake a dry line across eastern Kansas with a dry line
then trailing into eastern Oklahoma. That EML will initially keep
the atmosphere capped along these features into early this
afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, those height falls and what
should be at least some partial sunshine should be enough to
effectively lift/erode the cap.

Supercell thunderstorm development is still the preferred convective
mode as wind fields will carry these cells off the front/dry line.
Hail to the size of tennis balls, damaging winds, and tornadoes will
all be threats. There are a few tidbits worth mentioning regarding
the tornado threat. First off, the last several runs of the RAP and
to some point the NAM indicate some sort of dry line bulge coming
out of northeast Oklahoma. If this were to happen, we may see a
localized increase in low level shear which would enhance tornado
potential. Additionally, the threat for tornadoes will tend to
increase very late this afternoon and this evening as a veered low
level jet develops over the region. There will be the potential for
a few longer track tornadoes...especially if the GFS is correct in
bringing stronger mid-level jet energy out into the warm sector.

As we get into this evening, that front will begin to accelerate to
the east as that short wave trough takes on a neutral and then
negative tilt. Models have slowed the forward speed of the front
ever so slightly (which has been a trend since Wednesday). This may
allow discrete supercells to last a bit longer as convection
approaches the Highway 65 corridor. We do believe that these storms
will eventually transition into a quasi-linear convective system
somewhere around or just east of the Highway 65 corridor. Once the
transition takes place, the straight-line wind threat will ramp up
with widespread damaging winds quite possible. There will also
continue to be a tornado threat with any localized surges/bows
within the line. This activity is expected to exit the eastern
Missouri Ozarks somewhere in the 11 PM to 2 AM window.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

A blustery day is then on tap for Friday as brisk west-northwest
winds develop. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in
the 50s. High pressure will then settle right over the region Friday
night allowing temperatures to approach, or even fall below the
freezing mark. It also looks like a good setup for frost. Those that
have gotten a jump on the growing season may want to take these
items into consideration.

Global models then continue to bring a broad trough of low pressure
into the region from late this weekend through at least next
Tuesday. Unsettled weather will be the result with several
opportunities for rain showers. Below normal temperatures will
also prevail.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

Windy conditions exist out ahead of the approaching cold front.
Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms have developed over
the past couple of hours in the warm sector. Conditions are
generally VFR falling to MVFR near the thunderstorms.

These conditions will continue through the afternoon into the
evening with the approach of the cold front. Stronger storms could
produce large hail and winds in excess of 50 kts.

Front is expected to move through the aerodromes after 02z. As the
front passes...winds will veer to a west to northwest direction
and diminish slightly. In addition...expect MVFR ceilings between
06-14z. After 14z...ceilings should improve to VFR with winds
increasing and becoming gusty from the northwest.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1214 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

Robust initially positively tilted upper trough exiting eastern
CO/NM will take on a more negative tilt this afternoon/evening as it
lifts northeastward. Latest surface analysis reveals a rather
complex structure. Convection from earlier today sent an outflow
boundary into southwest MO where new strong/isolated severe
convection has formed. Satellite imagery and surface obs suggest a
subtle warm front lies near a COU to MCI line while a true wind
shift lies farther south extending from an area of low pressure near
CNU eastward through Linn county KS and Bates county MO. Believe
with continued surface heating and pressure falls due to the
approaching upstream trough the warm front will jump to the I-70
corridor this afternoon possibly reaching into northern MO by late
afternoon.

Very moist unstable air from southeast KS and southern MO will
spread into the southern half of the CWA this afternoon. While
regional morning soundings showed a moderate cap in place latest NAM
Bufr soundings indicate it will totally erode around 18z allowing
access to 2500-3000J/kg instability. Latest radar indicates isolated
cells already showing up over east central KS. Believe ongoing
convection just south of the CWA will not interfere with afternoon
development as no additional convection has formed upstream.

Latest HRRR is the preferred convective allowing model as it holds
the warm front a bit further south and had better handle on current
placement of the surface low. Believe convective initiation will take
place along the cold front from extreme east central KS, south of
LWC, south-southwestward along the cold front around or shortly
after 18Z. While the HRRR shows activity may not be initially robust
current thinking is once the cap breaks convection will develop
quite rapidly. 0-6km bulk shear around 50kt will support rotating
updrafts while MUCAPES in excess of 2500J/kg will provide plenty of
energy for robust convection. While model soundings forecast nearly
unidirectional shear after 21Z believe initially there will be
sufficient boundary layer shear to support discrete supercells
through mid afternoon, especially along the warm front and northeast
of the surface low. 17z surface obs show a subtle backing of surface
winds as well as an uptick in speeds over southeast KS. This will
only enhance the convergence along the cold front and support
supercell development. Any veering of the surface winds within the
warm sector past 200 degrees will be less supportive of severe
weather.

Initial storm mode will be discrete supercells for the first few
hours before a more unidirectional shear by late afternoon evolves
into line segments and ultimately into a squall-line as the activity
moves into central MO early this evening. Freezing level between
11-12k ft agl this afternoon. Initial threshold for quarter size
hail will require height of 50dBZ echoes in excess of 28-29k ft.
This will be calibrated later after reports start coming in. All
storm modes are in play with isolated tornadoes most favored along
the warm front and any discrete storms within the warm sector. In
addition, precipitatble water values two standard deviations above
normal east of the cold front will support flash flooding over those
areas which already received excessive rains over the past two days.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

Short Term (Today through Friday):

The main concern during the short term will be for continued flash
flooding as well as areal and river flooding associated with ongoing
morning convection. This flooding will continue and is expected over
the southern portion of the CWA where storms have been training over
the same area for several hours. There will also be continued
chances for an isolated severe storm through 5AM with the main
threat being marginally large hail. These storms are expected to
weaken and shift east of the area by mid morning as the LLJ which
fueled these storms weakens and become refocused out to the west.

This afternoon`s forecast is contingent how how quickly we can
recover from morning convection. What is evident is that a vigorous
upper level trough will move out of the Four Corners region this
morning into the central Plains. As it does it will take on a
negative tilt. In response to this upper trough move into the
Plains, cyclogenesis will be occurring across eastern Kansas where a
surface cold front will be strengthening. A surface low will develop
in the vicinity of Kansas City or St. Joseph by 18Z with a warm
front extending eastward perhaps right along the Hwy 36 corridor and
a cold front extending south-southwestward to near Chanute. It is
south and east of those boundaries that will be in the warm sector
an ripe for another round of severe weather again providing the
atmosphere can recover. High-res short range models suggest that the
atmosphere does recover by 18Z-20Z and thunderstorms will develop
along or near a Cameron MO. to Blue Mound KS line. Model soundings
are suggesting 1500-2500J/Kg of CAPE for storms to work with
provided they do develop. Plenty of moisture will also be available
for these storms with dewpoints soaring into the upper 50s to mid
60s ahead of the cold front. Low and deep layer shear will also be
very strong. This would suggest that discrete thunderstorms would be
the initial mode of thunderstorms development during the afternoon
with large hail and even an isolated tornado possible. As the cold
front pushes through the CWA in the late afternoon/early evening it
is very possible that thunderstorm will congeal into a squall line
with damaging winds and isolated tornado as the main threats. Also,
there will be the continued threat for flash flooding, areal
flooding and river flooding especially across portions of west
central Missouri and east central Kansas where 3"-5" of
precipitation has fallen over the past 36 hours. Model
soundings/output suggest that the squall line will exit the eastern
CWA by 9PM.

Tonight the upper level trough is then expected to move from eastern
Nebraska into northeastern Iowa. Wrap around moisture will be
possible across northern Missouri and as such have keep slight
chance to chance POPs there. Precipitation will be in the form of
light rain but light snow could mix in early Friday morning.
Otherwise, Friday will start out cloudy and gradually clear during
the day. Conditions will be rather blustery though with strong
northwest winds and highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Long Term (Friday night - Wednesday):

High pressure will move into the area Friday night providing good
radiational cooling with lows falling into the mid 20s to lower 30s.
High pressure will traverse the area Saturday providing poor mixing
however sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 50s
to near 60. An upper level trough will move out of the central
Rockies into the central Plains late Saturday night into Sunday.
This will allow showers to develop over the area on Sunday into
Sunday night. Behind this upper level trough the area will be under
northwest flow aloft. A few weak shortwaves will move through the
area on Monday and Tuesday providing for chance showers through the
period. Surface high pressure will build into the area on Wednesday
and conditions will again dry out. Highs through this period will
range from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

A few light showers will be possible at the terminals through 13Z
with MVFR cigs/vis. Showers will come to an end this morning but
cigs/vis will remain in the MVFR range with cigs perhaps even falling
back into IFR. Winds will be out of the east this morning around
10kts and they will gradually veer to the south by this afternoon. a
cold front will get organized across east Kansas this afternoon and
there is a brief window between 19Z-22Z for thunderstorms...possibly severe...
to affect MCI and MKC. MVFR cigs/vis will continue through the
afternoon. Between 21Z-22Z the cold front will move through the
terminals effectively ending the storm chances and veering winds to
the west around 15kts with gusts between 20-25kts. Expect MVFR cigs
to continue behind the front through the remainder of the TAF period.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ037>040-
043>046.

MESOSCALE...MJ
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

1010 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

...Episode of Severe Thunderstorms Today...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

Complex and active weather today as ingredients are favorable for
periods of severe weather. There could be multiple rounds from
this morning into this afternoon and then later this afternoon
into this evening. The cap is weaker across the area then
previously expected and storms are developing across northwestern
Arkansas into far southern Missouri. A boundary is also pushing
southeast through the area across central Missouri into
southwestern Missouri. There is clearing just ahead of this line
across the eastern Ozarks and instability in quickly increasing
this morning. Low level winds shear also remains high across the
area.

Storms are expected to increase in coverage late this morning into
early this afternoon generally across far southern Missouri and
areas generally along and east of Highway 65. Deep layer shear
will support supercells developing. Due to the weaker cap and
instability increasing these storms will be surface based and all
modes of severe weather will be possible, with hail to the size of
tennis balls, damaging straight line winds, and a few tornadoes
will also be possible due to the low level wind shear and surface
based storms.

This activity will be a factor later in the day as a cold front
pushes into northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas during
the mid to late afternoon hours. Storms are expected to develop
along the front during this time over or just west to the far
western portions of the forecast area. Deep layer shear and storm
motions will favor supercells with all modes of severe weather
expected during the mid to late afternoon hours west of Highway
65.

The convection this morning and afternoon will have to be watched
to see how it impacts instability and the severe potential this
afternoon and evening when the cold front pushes across the area.
If the area is worked over too much ahead of the cold front, storms
may weaken or form into a line due to strong forcing along the
front. The overall severe potential would be weaker due to weaker
instability. However, if the sun can break out and instability can
recover behind the earlier storms, the severe potential will increase
as supercells will be possible. Later this evening, storms will
form into a line over the eastern Ozarks with strong winds and
embedded tornadoes being the primary risk. This activity will push
east of the area by the early overnight hours.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

Windy conditions will occur through much of the day today at the
terminals. Later this afternoon, severe thunderstorms are expected
to from west of the terminal sites, and move into the region
during the late afternoon through mid to late evening hours. Once
these storms pass, winds will become westerly and then
northwesterly overnight.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

610 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

...Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

303 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

...Episode of Severe Thunderstorms Later This Afternoon and This
Evening...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

Pilots can expect an increasing risk for thunderstorms mainly to
the north of the terminal sites tonight and across the entire
region by Thursday afternoon and evening.

Areas of MVFR ceilings will impact the area particularly north of
a warm front draped across the Ozarks and near any storms.
Visibilities will also be lowered in areas of heavy rainfall.

Low level wind shear will develop late tonight into early
Thursday morning.

Severe storms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening as a
cold front moves across the region.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foster

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1127 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

04Z surface observations at Nevada and Clinton MO show that the warm
front has lifted into the far southern CWA, with temperatures now in
the 60s and dewpoints in the upper 50s. An axis of discrete
thunderstorms continues just north of this boundary, extending from
El Dorado KS northeast to Warrensburg. These storms have exhibited
supercellular structures at times, with mid level rotation
contributing to brief period of hail up to golf ball size. Additional
thunderstorms continue to develop north and west up to around I-70, a
large region of moderate isentropic ascent continues along an
ascending broad 40-50 knot low level jet.

Latest mesoanalysis and RAP forecasts show conflicting variables for
severe weather overnight. MUCAPE values currently around 1000 J/kg
are expected to gradually increase across wrn MO/ern KS to nearly
2000 J/kg by 12Z. However, cloud bearing shear is expected to
diminish considerably prior to the arrival of large scale ascent tied
to the upper trough after 12Z. With shear being the larger
contributor owing to unseasonably high freezing levels, it would
seem to reason that the threat for hail (at least much larger than
1") will steadily wane over the next couple hours, owing to fewer
supercell structures and the shear number of thunderstorms expected.
That being said, storms closer to better near-surface based inflow
air over the far southern CWA (e.g. Linn, Bates, Henry counties) will
need to be watched closely for storm- scale rotation.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, the primary focus will
shift to the increasing likelihood for excessive rainfall. An inch of
rain fell this morning over the southern KC metro and points south
and east. The low level jet orientation running increasingly parallel
to the slow moving warm front suggests that training storms are
likely to occur over these same areas once again overnight.
Precipitable water values are now well over an inch and increasing
quickly. Dual-pol radar analysis continues to show very high KDP
values, indicative of large drop sizes and essentially a warm rain
process ongoing above the surface cold pool. That said, rainfall
rates of 2"/hr are likely within 50+ dBZ echos, and localized total
amounts of 3-5" are possible over the southern CWA. This is not to
diminish the heavy rainfall potential up to I-70 and perhaps St.
Joseph-Chillicothe, but those areas need a lot more rainfall.

Bookbinder

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

As of early afternoon, the majority of showers have exited the
forecast area, with only isolated showers or light drizzle present.
Visible satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover across the
CWA. Retreating southern periphery of clouds have been noted north
of the warm front over SE KS into SW MO as of the past couple hours.
The warm front, analyzed from surface observations, radar fine
line, and cumulus field, currently stretches from Ponca City, OK to
Parsons, KS to just south of Springfield, MO. Eastern extent of this
boundary has experienced reinforced cold air from earlier and
ongoing weak convection, and even a slight southward jog of the
boundary near SGF.

Forecast concerns first hinge on potential for convection this
evening and overnight. Convective-resolving models (HRRR, EAX 4-km
WRF, LSX 12-km WRF, NAM NCEP) have shown similar outputs to
convective behavior and warm frontal position during the next 6-12
hours. Models have been very persistent in first developing
convection along the warm front in SE KS between 22-01Z. There
remains some uncertainty to how far north the warm front will reach
this evening. High-resolution model guidance places the boundary
within the southern two-tiers of counties in the CWA (Mound City to
Clinton) by early evening, but some of this northern extent may be
limited by the recent reinforcement of cooler air from showers just
north of the boundary along I-44. Nevertheless, expect the boundary
to be in/just south of the CWA by early/mid evening. Additional
convection is expected to develop along the warm front this evening,
and with a favorable environment for well-organized convection
including supercells, with large hail to golf ball-sized and damaging
wind gusts possible with these storms that remain along and just
south of the warm front. In addition, with the enhanced low-level
shear near/along the boundary, the potential for tornadoes will also
be possible. To the north of the boundary, additional convection will
develop between 02-05Z over much of the forecast area. Some of these
storms, especially south of Highway 36, will have a favorable
environment with ample elevated instability and wind shear to support
storms capable of producing severe hail. The highest probability of
these elevated storms producing severe weather will be between 02-08Z
in the CWA. Will also have to monitor any additional convection along
the warm front as it lifts northward overnight and whether the lowest
layer of the atmosphere cools and decouples. Lastly, areas along and
south of Interstate 70 received the bulk of rain this morning, with
precipitation totals exceeding one inch in many areas. With
additional moderate to heavy rainfall expected in some of these
already saturated areas tonight and Thursday, will issue a flash
flood watch for areas along Interstate 70 to account for the
potential for flash flooding.

A brief lull in the activity is anticipated during the mid morning
hours as convection moves out of the CWA. A surface low and an
accompanying cold front will move through the forecast area during
the afternoon hours. Assuming the atmosphere can recover from
earlier convection, strong dynamics/forcing should lead to another
round of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Storm mode remains in
question depending on the available instability and strong forcing,
but a brief period of discrete convection followed by an evolution
into a squall line is currently anticipated. Severe weather will be
possible, especially across the southeastern half of the CWA.
Additional details will be resolved following the convective
evolution from tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

As the departing surface low continues to wrap up and lifts off to
the northeast, unseasonably cold air will filter southward into the
forecast area on Friday into Friday night. Some of the wrap-around
precipitation may brush the northern edge of the forecast area,
possibly falling in the form of light snow across our northern tier
of counties, and a rain/snow mix a little further to the south. No
snow accumulation is expected, and very little precipitation is
possible. Highs on Friday will reach only into the 40s to perhaps
around 50 degrees, and below freezing temperatures are expected on
Friday night.

Another deepening longwave trough will head eastward across the
western CONUS during the latter half of the weekend, entrenching
the forecast area in west to southwest flow once again. However; a
lingering surface boundary across the southeastern U.S. and the
southern extent of the upper trough should keep any significant
precipitation south of the forecast area. On and off chances for
light rain showers are present Sunday through Tuesday, then cooler
and drier northwest flow will filter into the area again by midweek
as the upper trough pushes eastward. High temperatures this weekend
will be tempered by cloud cover and possible rain showers, and
should settle near or slightly below normal. By middle next week,
highs are more likely to remain a touch below normal as northwest
flow takes over.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

Watching closely thunderstorms developing near CNU as they track
northeast into western MO. Latest short term guidance suggests these
should stay mainly south of the KC area for several
hours...eventually reaching IXD/OJC late this evening, toward MCI
near or shortly after midnight and into the STJ-IRK corridor before
sunrise. Before storms move in, widespread low clouds will remain in
place near and north of the MO River and may even lower a bit after
dark bringing ceiling close to airfield minimums for some airports.
Additional storms are possible Thurs morning before a front moves
through during the afternoon but timing this activity is difficult.
Therefore kept a vague VCTS through this period.

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR KSZ057-105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR MOZ037>040-
043>046.

MESOSCALE...Bookbinder
SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Hawblitzel

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...A COMPLEX SITUATION IS UNFOLDING WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED DECENT
PRECIP BUT HOW IT FALLS REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN EVEN AS IT`S ON
THE DOORSTEP...

ALOFT: A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF WAS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO NEB/KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND HEADS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW
TOMORROW...HERE ON THE CNTRL PLAINS.

SURFACE: THIS IS THE FIRST SPRING STORM OF THE SEASON...THOUGH
ITS IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED FOR OUR FCST AREA. LOW PRES WAS
OVER ERN KS...SITUATED ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONT. THE FCST AREA WAS
IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS LOW WILL CROSS INTO MO AND BE OVER LAKE
MI BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...MODESTLY DEEPENING OVER THE JOURNEY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SPILL S DOWN THE PLAINS AND INCREASE ITS
INFLUENCE HERE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

NOW: LIFT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING VIA BLOSSOMING RETURNS ON
RADAR. THE TROF IS SHIFTING E AND THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER KANSAS
CITY. CLOUD TOPS ARE MODESTLY COOLING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
EDGES E.

THE HI-RES RAP HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON THE REFLECTIVITY IN THIS
BAND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
4PM- 5PM.

THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION WITH P-TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE WILL
IS SUB-FRZG W OF THE TROF AXIS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER /BL/
IS ABOVE FRZG...THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR AROUND TO ADVECT
IN ...AND PCPN IS NOT FALLING HEAVY ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO OVERCOME
THE WARM BL. THE PCPN INTENSITY WILL DRIVE THE P-TYPE AND AMTS.

THIS MAKES THE FCST DIFFICULT AND PUTS INTO JEOPARDY THE
OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN-SNOW AND
SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMTS.

IF PCPN DOES NOT COME DOWN HEAVILY ENOUGH...WHEN/IF THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS...IT WILL MELT ON CONTACT.

FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOW THRU MIDNIGHT.

HERE IS OUR CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON:
INTERMITTENT DRZL WITH EMBEDDED SHWRS/SLEET OVER S-CNTRL NEB WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A FAIRLY STEADY R AND EVENTUALLY TO S AS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN BAND HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL HOLD STEADY.

TONIGHT: EXPECT BY 7 PM THAT WHATEVER RAIN IS FALLING SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE LOSE SOLAR INPUT ON SFC TEMPS. SNOW WILL END
FROM W- E. IT IS WITH RELUCTANCE THAT I AM KEEPING THE
ADVISORY...MAINLY DUE TO THE VERY LOW POTENTIAL THAT THIS PCPN
COULD OVER-PRODUCE. BE ADVISED THAT SNOWFALL AMTS COULD END UP
BELOW AN INCH AND SOME AREAS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT ACCUMULATE AT
ALL. THE SNOW E OF HWY 81 WILL BE DONE BY 3AM. DECREASING CLOUDS
WILL FOLLOW.

FCST SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO NO MORE THAN 1 INCH AND
I HOPE THIS IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF HAND GIVEN THAT THE
STRONGEST PRES RISES WILL OCCUR S OF I-70. GUSTS COULD REACH 40
MPH AT TIMES...E OF HWY 281 OVER S-CNTRL NEB.

POSSIBLE FCST SHORT-COMINGS FOR NUMEROUS. THE SNOW HAS BEEN
MODERATE AT TIMES TODAY OVER NW KS /CBK/ AND EVEN BRIEFLY AT MCK.
IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE TRANSIENT HEAVIER SNOW BANDS COULD
SWING THRU N- CNTRL KS.

TOMORROW: SUNNY AND TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. USED BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND OF MODEL 2M TEMPS AND THE PREVIOUS GID FCST. THIS
RAISED HIGHS 3-4.

FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING TO NEARLY 700 MB. SO DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWERED BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES...AND
THERE MAY BE MORE DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL INTO THE UPR TEENS.

WINDS WILL BE BRZY IN THE MORNING...GUSTING 30-35 MPH E OF HWY
281. BUT WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

MAIN CONCERNS WILL FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SAT NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLUCTUATE
DURING THE PERIOD IN QUESTION.

STARTING OFF FRIDAY EVENING LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR REGION SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR
REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUT THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN ROCKIES AT THAT TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH LEE TROUGHING
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE
WINDS SWITCHING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. END UP WITH A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THUS IT WILL BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY
SIDE ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY
BROAD...SLOW MOVING TROUGH WITH THE 500 MB AXIS OVER THE CENTER OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z MON. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE TROUGH...OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES ROTATE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES POINT
TO ALL LIQUID. ALSO...INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH FORECAST MU-CAPES BELOW 100 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS BETTER JUST TO
THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE TRANSITION DAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE EAST. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE WARMER AIR TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION...BUT WED AND THURSDAY SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A NICE WARMUP WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE 70S WHICH
WOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z GRI TAF THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH MVFR AND OCCASIONAL VFR
VSBYS IN INTERMITTENT DRZL AND SCT SHWRS. AFTER 21Z ANY RAIN/DRZL
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO -SN. N WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AND INCREASE
...GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: IFR -SN ENDS BY MID EVENING. THEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 30 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

FRI MORNING: VFR SKC. NNW WINDS GUST TO NEAR 27 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>063-072>075-082>084.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...HALBLAUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1248 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

WINTER WX ADVISORY CONTINUES AS POSTED FROM 403 AM.

NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST. THINGS ARE EVOLVING AS
EXPECTED. IT IS NOW APPARENTLY SNOWING AT ORD. THE NDOR CAMERA
OVER SW CUSTER COUNTY APPEARS TO SHOW SKIFFS OF SNOW ON GRASSY
AREAS. AM GROWING CONCERNED THAT ACCUMS WILL BE HARD TO COMEBY
WITHIN THE ADVISORY...GIVEN MILD GROUND TEMPS AND ABOVE FRZG
BOUNDARY LAYER. MCCOOK IS DOWN TO 3/4 SM VISIBILITY IN -SN. THAT`S
THE KIND OF INTENSITY WE WILL NEED TO GET ANY MINOR ACCUMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

EXAMINING 12Z LBF/ABR/OAX SOUNDINGS AND 11Z RAP SOUNDINGS...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS READY TO PRODUCE SNOW. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUB-FRZG
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND W. WE ARE
JUST WAITING FOR LIFT TO DEVELOP AND THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER TO
SATURATE.

THE UEX 88D SHOWS CLOUD TOPS AROUND 11K FT...AND THE BOTTOM OF THE
SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS FCST AROUND 12K FT. SO IT`S JUST A WAITING
GAME.

THE 13Z RAP SUGGESTS SATURATION FIRST OCCURS FROM GOTHENBURG-COZAD
UP TO ORD 12PM-1PM...AND THEN E INTO THE TRI-CITIES 4PM-5PM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE 6 HR QPF ENDING AT 12Z FROM THE 00Z EC/NAM AND 03Z SREF MEAN
DID NOT PERFORM WELL. THEY WERE TOO HEAVY OVER THE SE QUARTER OF
NEB. WE MAY USE THIS TO GUIDE OUR FCST EFFORTS TODAY. I ALREADY
LIKE THE LOOK OF THE 11Z RAP AND 06Z GFS FOR HOW I BELIEVE THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.

AS OF NOW...THE 700 MB TROF IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND IS UPSTREAM FROM THE PANHANDLE DOWN INTO
CNTRL CO.

AN INITIAL LOOK SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE WILL HAPPEN THRU MIDDAY.
EXPECT PATCHY DRZL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF SHWR. THE MAIN SHOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE W AND THAT`S HOW WE WILL PLAY IT IN THE
FCST. THAT MEANS WE MAY NEED TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING.

MORE LATER...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH LIFT AIDED ALONG THE NOSE OF A SRLY LLJ
JET AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION...BEEN SEEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER PASS THROUGH. THE BRUNT OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS AFFECTED ERN KS OVERNIGHT...AND JUST A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SITS NEAR THE OK/TX/NM BORDER AREA...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/NE THROUGH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF KS.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES AS OF 4 AM.

THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS...AND WANT TO
STATE THAT DUE TO LINGERING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN HOW TODAY PLAYS OUT IS NOT HIGH.

MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES...TAKING A MORE NERLY TURN AS IT
EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE GENERAL TRACK TAKES IT RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN
THE MID LEVELS...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH WHETHER IT
STAYS THAT WAY OR FILLS/BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND AT WHAT
LEVELS /700 OR 500 MB/. THE GFS IS ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SIDE...STRONGER AND KEEPING BOTH LEVELS CLOSED...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF WEAKENED...SHOWING A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE 700MB LOW
/ALREADY IN MN BY 00Z COMPARED TO OVER SC AND ERN NEB SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ AND AN OPEN 500MB WAVE. THE NAM/GEM ARE IN BETWEEN BUT CLOSER
TO THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD THE
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS...THE GFS LEADING THE
WAY DUE TO ITS STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS A
BLEND. IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS BACKING OFF SOME ON
QPF...THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT FROM THE HI RES HRRR AND RAP WITH
THERE LIKELY BEING A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN THE
SHOWERS SLIDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...LEAVING BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE...AND KEPT THAT MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST.

MODEL DATA AND SPC MESO PAGE SHOW THAT SUB FREEZING 850MB TEMPS ARE
IN PLACE ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FEEL THAT ONCE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION FINALLY STARTS WORKING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...IT
WILL FALL AS SNOW...EVEN WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID 30S.
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO ALLOW FOR
A RA/SN MIX OR STRAIGHT RA...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. EXPECTING A FULL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS SWITCHED OVER TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...NOT CONFIDENT THAT ANYONE WOULD GET 6+ INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MAIN
BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...IN CASE IT ENDS UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...BACKED OFF THE
START TIME OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO MID
MORNING...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE EAST STILL STARTING AT 18Z. LATEST
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE END TIME BY
3 HRS TO 09Z.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT
HIT THE CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ESP IN THE
HEAVIER BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE COULD BRING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF A FEW HRS WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO NEAR ONE HALF OF
A MILE AND PRESENT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WITH THE CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN PLACE
AND PRECIP CHANCES MOVING IN...NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT
OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR PCPN AND PERIODS OF WAA/CAA.

HEIGHTS RISE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP W/E OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
EAST FM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH EXPECTED. IN THE
MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEAR 60F.

THE STEADY SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH SFC
DPS PROGGED TO RISE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE
LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN WAA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHCS FOR
PCPN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THE H7 WAVE MAY
CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
MEANDER EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND REORGANIZE/DEEPEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS
ACROSS PCPN CHC CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN FOR EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK A TROUGHY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
SUBTLE WAVES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THRU. ALTHOUGH IT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY WET...HIT OR MISS CHCS FOR PCPN ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AXIS EXPAND EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARMER AIR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THE HORIZON.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z GRI TAF THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

TONIGHT: IFR -SN ENDS BY MID EVENING. THEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 30 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

FRI MORNING: VFR SKC. NNW WINDS GUST TO NEAR 27 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-060-061-072-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-
062-063-074-075-082>084.

KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

931 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE UEX 88D SHOWS CLOUD TOPS AROUND 11K FT...AND THE BOTTOM OF THE
SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS FCST AROUND 12K FT. SO IT`S JUST A WAITING
GAME.

THE 13Z RAP SUGGESTS SATURATION FIRST OCCURS FROM GOTHENBURG-COZAD
UP TO ORD 12PM-1PM...AND THEN E INTO THE TRI-CITIES 4PM-5PM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

AS OF NOW...THE 700 MB TROF IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND IS UPSTREAM FROM THE PANHANDLE DOWN INTO
CNTRL CO.

MORE LATER...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR PCPN AND PERIODS OF WAA/CAA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE TERMINAL AREA...ESP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AM STAYING ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF
THINGS AT THIS POINT...REALIZE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS
THE DAY PASSES...AND HAVE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS DONT LOOK TO NOTABLY IMPROVE UNTIL CLOSER
TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-060-061-072-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-062-063-074-075-082>084.

KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

808 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

AS OF NOW...THE 700 MB TROF IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND IS UPSTREAM FROM THE PANHANDLE DOWN INTO
CNTRL CO.

MORE LATER...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR PCPN AND PERIODS OF WAA/CAA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-060-061-072-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-062-063-074-075-082>084.

KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

550 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR PCPN AND PERIODS OF WAA/CAA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-062-063-074-075-082>084.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

450 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR PCPN AND PERIODS OF WAA/CAA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLIDING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE PLAINS. DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AND THEN SN LATER TODAY...CONDITIONS RUN
FROM MVFR TO LIFR. IMPROVEMENTS NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD IN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE NORTH...THEN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS KS/OK. INCREASING SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING NEAR 25 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072-073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-062-063-074-075-082>084.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1134 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THE AREA TO WATCH TONIGHT IS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB
TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW LIFTS INTO THE FCST AREA WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
THE MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS BUT IS BACKING OFF ON THE QPF ACROSS ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST. THE RAP IS DRIER THAN THE NAM THRU 19Z. THE
GEM REGIONAL IS THE NEXT MODEL TO COME IN...THEN THE GFS. AT THIS
POINT THE PROSPECT FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 83 APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING. THE LATER MODEL RUNS OF THE GEM...GFS...ECM AS WELL AS
THE RAP WHICH COMES IN ONCE PER HOUR FOR AN 18 HOUR FORECAST WILL
RESOLVE THIS FORECAST PROBLEM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

AT FIRST GLANCE...THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE SNOW FORECAST BUT IT IS ACTUALLY FASTER THAN THE NAM
BRINGING VERY STRONG FORCING INTO NERN COLO. THIS AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG OR JUST LEFT OF THE H700MB
LOW WHICH ALL MODELS MOVE THRU SCNTL AND NERN NEB THURSDAY. FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK EXCEPT THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL INDICATED IN THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INTO
SWRN NEB THURSDAY MORNING.

THE UPDATE TO THE FORECAST USES A BIT WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT WHICH
HAS LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON THE SNOW FORECAST SINCE IT SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER 06Z. THE GEM...NAM...GFS AND SREF WERE
USED FOR QPF WITH A SIMPLE 10 TO 1 RATIO FOR SNOW. THIS TIGHTENED UP
THE SNOW BAND BUT ONLY PRODUCED UP TO 7 INCHES IN HOLT COUNTY.

IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT THEN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRACK 50 OR SO MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO ONEILL THURSDAY. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES
SUSTAINED 25 MPH SFC WINDS DEVELOPING AT 16Z ACROSS SWRN NEB
ASSOCIATED WITH A 35 KT BARRIER JET SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GEM.
THOSE MODELS STRENGTHEN THAT JET FROM 35KT AT 15Z TO 55KT BY 03Z
WHICH IS A MODELS WAY OF SAYING BLIZZARD. BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE HIGHEST POP AREAS.

ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE AVAILABLE BY AROUND 10 PM CDT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM...AND MAKES FOR A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SOMEWHAT MORE DEVELOPED
AND STRONGER SYSTEM...AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THESE
MODELS. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE LAST THREE
SYSTEMS...AND HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS
LATEST SYSTEM. A CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM MODEL INDICATES A GOOD
AGEOSTROPHIC THERMAL CIRCULATION...WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THIS
POINTS TO A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING...LIKELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
ONEILL TO BROKEN BOW TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THIS BAND IS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE OPTED FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE SOME OTHER FACTORS /SOUTHERN
PLAINS CONVECTION/ THAT COULD DISRUPT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
OUR AREA THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN OVERALL LESS SNOW. ANOTHER
REASON TO SIDE WITH THE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SIGNS OF A BARRIER JET DEVELOPING. IF THE
SNOWFALL MATERIALIZES AS FORECASTED...THEN LOW VISIBILITY IS LIKELY
WITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THIS EVENING...WITH FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF AND ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO IOWA. COLDER AIR THEN COMES
IN FROM MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AN INCH AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT ENDS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA THOUGH WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 06Z IN
MUCH OF THE WEST.

THEN...AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RETURN
FLOW WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. ALSO...RETURN FLOW BRINGS A TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A STORM OUT OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THOUGH
THE CYCLONE CENTER WILL FOLLOW A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
THE ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NEARLY
SATURATED AIR THROUGH A LAYER OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY. THE LIFT IS
NOT REAL STRONG IN THE MOIST LAYER...BUT IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT
SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
UNDERLYING NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND WARM...SO
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED.

FINALLY...AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THAT SHOULD BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO
NEBRASKA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

A DEEP STORM SYSTEM...ACROSS ARIZONA AT 04Z...WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE CNTL PLAINS THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
EVENING.

VFR/MVFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED BETWEEN KVTN-KIEN AS THIS AREA
SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE STRATUS.

SOUTH OF A KSNY-KANW LINE...MIXED...MVFR/IFR/LIFR IN SNOW...FOG AND
STRATUS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS IMPROVING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ007-009-010-026>029-037-038-059-070-071.

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1059 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE NC/SC
WESTERN PIEDMONT IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE
PUSHING INTO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BEFORE DAYBREAK. AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE WARM...WITH A BAND OF
REASONABLY THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADD TO THAT PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND IT IS AN UNSEASONABLY
WARM EVENING INLAND FROM THE BEACHES.

RADAR HAS REMAINED QUIET SO FAR...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING
OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE ARE NO FAVORABLY
POSITIONED JET STREAKS TO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE ITSELF IS QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG AND HIGH-RES HRRR MODEL PROGS
STILL SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS I AM
HOLDING ONTO THE 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE MID 60S JUST INLAND
FROM THE NC COAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT MAY TAKE AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK TO FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE...WAITING ON A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TO MOVE BY TO OUR N.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND THE FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL HAVE ALREADY
MOVED OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...SO WILL CONFINE POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST EARLY ON TO ALREADY BELOW FURTHER
INLAND WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING. MODEST MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODEST COOL AND DRY
ADVECTION WITH SUNSHINE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S AND THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK TO THE N SUN
AND SUN NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL SHIFT
TO E AND SE LATE IN THE DAY SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
NEARS. THE COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED OR NEARLY SO THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...NEAR A HALF INCH SAT...WILL BE
RISING DURING SUN AND THEN PEAK SUN NIGHT...AROUND AN INCH AND A
HALF. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE RAMPING HIGHER...ESPECIALLY SUN
NIGHT AS MUCH WARMER AND VERY MOIST AIR OVERRIDES THE SHALLOW COOL
AIRMASS AT/NEAR THE SURFACE. TIMING IS STILL NOT NAILED DOWN...BUT
WILL BEGIN INCREASING POPS FROM S TO N SUN...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH POPS RAMPING TO CATEGORICAL SUN NIGHT. GIVEN
INCREASING CAPE VALUES...WILL INCLUDE SMALL MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF
INCH WITH MORE CONVECTION LIKELY ON MON.

DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ON SUN...WHEN CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKEST...MAINLY MID 60S. SAT...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL
BE ABLE TO RISE WELL UP INTO THE 70S IF NOT HIT 80 ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLEST NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL
OCCUR SAT NIGHT...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE MOST PART. CLOUDS
AND BETTER MIXING SUN NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER...NEAR
50 TO THE MID 50S. THESE LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED EARLY IN
THE EVE...THEN RISING OVERNIGHT AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS
TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO SURGE N.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE EMPHASIS REMAINS ON THE COMPLEX AND POTENT
STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STILL A LOT TO BE DETERMINED AS FAR AS POSITIONING AND TIMING BUT
OVERALL POPS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE
EVENT WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD SLOW
THE PROGRESS. I HAVE INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR ALL OF THESE
PERIODS PER HIGHER CONFIDENCE. ALSO A BIT EARLY ON THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE WEATHER BUT PER SPC DISCUSSIONS...INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE THE WILD CARD. BEYOND
THIS...A WESTERLY/FLATTER FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE MID LEVELS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WEDNESDAY MODERATING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERED CIGS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UPSTREAM THERE IS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALONG WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR...ESPECIALLY INLAND. BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. BECOMING
VFR TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY A STRONG SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION COUPLED WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WIND CREATED
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES EARLIER. THESE REALLY STRONG
WINDS HAVE DIED AWAY...BUT A BACKGROUND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 20
KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE UP UNTIL ALMOST DAYBREAK. WHEN COUPLED WITH
4-5 FOOT SEAS AN "EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL REMAIN APPENDED TO
THE FORECAST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHTER WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A T-STORM MAY
PRECEDE THE FRONT LATE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT
MORNING...SHIFTING SW WINDS TO N AND THEN NE. NE WINDS SAT NIGHT
WILL VEER TO E SUN AFTERNOON AND TO SE SUN NIGHT AS THE STALLED COLD
FRONT TO OUR S BEGINS TO ADVANCE N. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE NEAR
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SUBSIDING. SEAS
WILL REVERSE HIGHER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...RUGGED CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS USUAL...STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY AT THIS POINT NOT THE
STRONGEST I HAVE SEEN. STILL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TO 20-25 KNOTS BY DAYS END
MONDAY AND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY BUT LOOK FOR A LATE DAY ARRIVAL.
WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LOOK FOR WINDS FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW VALUES TO
DROP WEDNESDAY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL/RAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

751 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...ANOTHER BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY HAS
BROUGHT THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE 80+ DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE TO ILM
AND FLO. THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS OCT 4-7 2013. HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH AND THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION...BUT THE QUESTION IS WILL THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION? STATISTICAL MOS PRODUCTS
ONLY SAY THERE`S A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE...AND HRRR HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL. JET DYNAMICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN OUR
FORECAST.

SEABREEZE WINDS AT THE BEACHES HAVE REACHED 25 KNOTS IN GUSTS
IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUITE A BIT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP WINDS
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST...THROUGH EARLY MORNING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WHILE THE BEST
DYNAMICS FOR PRECIP WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND INSTABILITY
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH OF BOTH AROUND
TONIGHT TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. POPS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 20 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS NEAR THE
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. MINS
TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH UPPER 50S ON TAP
WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. BECOMING
VFR TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY A STRONG SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION COUPLED WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WIND IS
CREATING WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES. THESE REALLY STRONG
WINDS SHOULD DIE AWAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT A
BACKGROUND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 20 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE. WHEN
COUPLED WITH 4-5 FOOT SEAS AN "EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL
REMAIN APPENDED TO THE FORECAST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
TOMORROW MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...

SCEC CONDITIONS ONGOING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. RATHER
STAGNANT SFC FEATURES OVER THE SE U.S. AND ADJACENT ATL WATERS THIS
WEEK...WILL FINALLY START PROGRESSING. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...WILL GET PUSHED FURTHER
OFFSHORE AND EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TODAY...AND APPROACH THE AREA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING
GRADIENT WILL YIELD SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RESPOND AND BUILD TO A MORE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 FT THIS AFTN
AND HOLD AT THESE HEIGHTS THRU TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
GOVERNED BY THE SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES. BEST TIME FOR RATHER
WEAK FEW/SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...RAN/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL/RAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

749 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY. A WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV WILL LIKELY AFFECT AT
LEAST THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-16Z...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH AROUND 18Z. THE GFS HAS HANDLED UPSTREAM QPF
BEST PER OBSERVED 06Z PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND IT IS BY FAR THE WETTEST
GUIDANCE (A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH) AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER...GFS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE SOME 10-20 DEGREES TOO HIGH OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THIS ERROR IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUCH HIGH QPF HERE. AS
SUCH...AND SINCE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING FROM CLOUD BASES
NO LOWER THAN 6-10 THOUSAND FT...WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER EC AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE NEARER TERM RAP AND HRRR
FORECASTS...WHICH SUPPORT JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT HAS EDGED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A KMTV-KTDF-KLHZ-
KOCW ARC PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA THIS MORNING...AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL FROM NEAR KINT-KJNX-KEWN THROUGH 12-15Z PER...BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE BOUNDARY IS A SHALLOW ONE...WITH BEST DEPTH OVER SE VA AND
NE NC WHERE THE ADDED INFLUENCE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS IS
MOST PRONOUNCED. SINCE THE BOUNDARY DEPTH IS OTHERWISE
LIMITED...COOLING BEHIND IT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS WITH HEATING AND TAPS INTO OTHERWISE STILL RELATIVELY-WARM
AIR JUST ABOVE THE COOLER SURFACE LAYER. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WED OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...RANGING TO LOWER 80S FROM
GREENSBORO TO RALEIGH...AND UPPER 70S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. THE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION REFERENCED
ABOVE WERE TO MATERIALIZE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN DIABATIC
REINFORCEMENT OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...RETARD WARM FRONTAL
RETREAT...AND YIELD TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON - A LOW
PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO.

MILD WITH PASSING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE (IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE) IN A TIGHTENING MSL
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

FRI AND FRI NIGHT: WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE TO THOSE
OF WED AREA-WIDE...SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE UNDOUBTEDLY
RETREATED INTO VA BY THIS TIME.

IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OR TWO OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL EVOLVE/BE ONGOING EARLY FRI FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY
TO THE GULF COAST STATES...IN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A
990-995 MB SURFACE CYCLONE AND PARENT CLOSED UPPER LOW MIGRATING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...OR PERHAPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDING THE PARENT UPPER LOW. NONETHELESS...WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...10-30 METER/12HR HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT...AND MOST NOTABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ...WARRANT A CONTINUED FORECAST OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS - AS EARLY AS AROUND 6 PM OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS ELSEWHERE.

STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MORE
LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BETTER COINCIDE WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF I-95 BY 12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO OUR REGION.
WHILE THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...MOIST
SW FLOW ALOFT AND RESULTING CIRRUS WILL FILTER THE SUNSHINE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW H8 TEMPS GOING FROM 16C FRIDAY TO AROUND 8C
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...THUS TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL...LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND MID 40S FOR LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...

ON SUNDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE
DAY...BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN A TRADITIONAL CAD
PATTERN. LOOK FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY
GIVEN STRENGTHENING MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT (AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH)...WHICH WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER BL AIR INTO
THE AREA...THUS LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.

LIGHT RAIN WILL THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS S-
SW FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS PROGGED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT. AFTER 18Z...MODELS
ERODE THE CAD WEDGE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT.
THE GFS CUTS THE PRECIP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE DAY AS WE GET DRY
SLOTTED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTM
MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.
GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST
WHICH KEEPS 40-60 POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY TIL ABOUT 06Z
TUE. ITS WORTH POINTING OUT THAT CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CAD...WHERE THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY SETS UP...AND HOW LONG IT TAKES TO ERODE IT. WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW LIFTING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH...RIGHT NOW
WILL LEAN TOWARD HOLDING ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HSLC CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA LATER
IN THE DAY.

THEREAFTER THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED DUE TO THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ASSOC WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC
SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY..ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOC PRECIP.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG A KRUQ-KJNX-KPGV ARC
THIS MORNING...AND THIS BOUNDARY BEGIN A NORTHEASTWARD RETREAT IN
THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIALLY NE TO N
SURFACE WINDS AT ALL SITES NORTH OF KFAY THROUGH 16-18Z...WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE AGAIN WITH THE RETREAT OF THE FRONT. A
WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A
MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME REMNANT...VFR SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES
WILL LIKELY AFFECT AT LEAST THE TRIAD TERMINALS BETWEEN 12-16Z...AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KRDU AND KRWI BETWEEN 15-19Z. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NO WORSE THAN BETWEEN 6 AND 10 THOUSAND FT
DURING THAT TIME...HOWEVER. DESPITE THE CONTINUATION OF A 7-10 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE TONIGHT...MARGINAL LLWS CRITERIA ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE - IN A STRONG NOCTURNAL
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 1000-1500 FT - STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 40S KTS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK: A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS...WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL NC. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SUN NIGHT-MON.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

329 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

MILD WITH PASSING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AMIDST SOUTHWESTERLY
STIRRING IN A TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

FRI AND FRI NIGHT: WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE TO THOSE
OF WED AREA-WIDE...SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE UNDOUBTEDLY
RETREATED INTO VA.

THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...OR PERHAPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDING THE PARENT UPPER LOW. NONETHELESS...WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...10-30 METER/12HR HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT...AND MOST NOTABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ...WARRANTS A CONTINUED FORECAST OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS - AS EARLY AS AROUND 6 PM OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT HAS EDGED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A KMTV-KTDF-KLHZ-KOCW ARC
THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY STALL INVOF KRDU AND TRIAD TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE RETURNING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORM OF A WARM
FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIALLY GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS MAY CONSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHT NE OR N FOR SEVERAL
HOURS NORTH OF KFAY THROUGH 15-16Z...BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RESUMES THEREAFTER. A WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...BUT SOME WEAKENING VFR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY AFFECT AT LEAST THE TRIAD TERMINALS BETWEEN 12-
16Z...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KRDU AND KRWI BETWEEN 14-19Z.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NO WORSE THAN BETWEEN 6 AND 10
THOUSAND FT DURING THAT TIME...HOWEVER.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

315 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASES ON THE 305K SURFACE FOR A PERIOD
THURSDAY...MOVING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE
500MB JETLET AND WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST 850MB LIFT. THE
GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING WITH THE LIFT
TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MOST PARTICULARLY IN AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE NCEP AND SPC WRF GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOW THE GREATEST PROBABILITY. FOR THURSDAY...WILL KEEP
PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT
WEAKENING OF ECHOES AS THEY APPROACH...BUT ALSO THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCES THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVERALL SOUTH OF U.S. 64 EXCEPT DRY FROM ABOUT KMEB TO JUST
SOUTH OF KGSB WHERE BUFR SOUNDINGS...OVERALL MOISTURE...AND
AVAILABLE LIFT SEEM TOO LIMITED CURRENTLY FOR PRECIPITATION. ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF U.S. 64...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
MAY BE IN THE FORM OF A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.

NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH MORE STEEPENING OF LAYER LAPSE RATES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFTED INDICES FALL TO NEAR -3C...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STABLE...AND THE
WRF GUIDANCE IS CERTAINLY NOT AS ROBUST AS THE NAM. BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT AT THIS POINT THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE LEANS MORE TOWARD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY IF THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THURSDAY...AND IT COULD BE
A SITUATION WHERE THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WARMS NICELY LATE IN
THE DAY WHILE THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN ONLY GETS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S...WITH MORE CLOUDS THERE AND NEARER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AS WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE TO NEAR
30KT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
TO HAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
K INDICES FALL TO NEGATIVE VALUES UNDER AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY
CERTAINLY APPEAR TO BE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL MOVE OFF WELL TO NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HENCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
PRECIP/LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...THE
SPC KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH OUR
EXTREME WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER. THIS IS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FINALLY SHOWING IT
ERODE BY AROUND 00Z/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE LINE OF
STORMS MAKES IT TO OUR REGION...ANY MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WHERE THE ARRIVAL TIMING WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER.
OTHERWISE...ONLY LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT...AS
THE AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER
EAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND DEPENDING ON THE SPEED...THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

GIVEN THAT FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S
TO THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...MOSTLY LOW
TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...DJF/KRD
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1000 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
OVERNIGHT. AREAS RADARS SHOWING WEAK RETURN OVER OVER NORTHWEST ND
BUT GIVEN HIGH CEILINGS, PRECIP NOT REACHING THE GROUND. WILL KEEP
FLURRIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWERED TEMPS FOR NORTHERN MN AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE
TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

TWEAKED WIND A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED FOR CLOUD COVER. WILL
LOOK AT TEMPS AT THE NEXT UPDATE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TONIGHTS LOWS AS A
RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM PILOT MOUND...MB DOWN THROUGH
EUREKA...SD SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...ENTERING MN SIDE
OF THE VALLEY BY AROUND 06Z TO 08Z. A WEAK COOL FRONT CLIPS THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY EARLY SAT MORNING. GENERALLY LIKE A BLEND OF
THE NAM AND ECMWF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BULLISH WITH MOISTURE AND
HAS A COUPLE OF PERIODS (THE LAST TWO RUNS) WITH QPF BULLSEYES.
NAM/ECMWF IS GENERALLY DRIER.

TONIGHT...ATTM DIFFICULT TO ASSESS TRUE CLOUD COVER WITH SOME
AREAS THINNING/CLEARING...BUT DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE LOW
CLOUDS FROM RECENT SNOW IN OTHER AREAS. IN GENERAL..APPEARS CLOUDS
ARE THINNING...AND THE RUC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON IT CLEARING OUT AFT 00Z ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST. CERTAINLY THINK BY 06Z AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT THEN
SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVING INTO SASK WILL
MOVE ACROSS MB IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME...AND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE I DID REMOVE POPS AND GO WITH FLURRIES OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING WITH SPRINKLES NORTHEAST BY NOON. GFS SOUNDINGS DRY MID
LEVELS OUT INDICATING POSSIBLE DRIZZLE BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THAT
POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL SEE BREEZY SFC WINDS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS SHIFT NW EARLY EVENING AND
BEFORE SFC HIGH BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT. SFC LOWS COULD BE
COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING IN AREAS OF FRESHER SNOW AS
WE SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE
NORTH...WARMER TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE WILL STILL HAVE
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE SKY COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL SEE STRONGER RETURN FLOW SET UP SUN AFTN
AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO 5OS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS IN
SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH A SFC LOW/WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS
AREA SUN NIGHT...WITH NAM SHOWING SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
LATE SUN AFTN BUT GENERALLY DRY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF SIMILAR TO NAM WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION
MINUS LATE SUN AFTN ACTIVITY. GFS BRINGS ACROSS MORE MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS SUN AFTN BUT LIMITS PRECIP TO SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA SUN NIGHT. AGAIN...GENERALLY LIKE THE DRIER SOLUTION
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY GULF MOISTURE LIKELY BEING ROBBED BY STRONG
CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN (BECOMING RAIN/SNOW BY
EARLY MON MORNING) ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH LOW POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF HILLSBORO.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE N CENTRAL US INTO MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A STEADY WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES TOPPING OUT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN 60S LOOKS LIKELY.
FLOW THEN FLATTENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR FLATTENING THE RIDGE WILL
DROP THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FROPA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

BAND OF CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT WERE CENTERED FROM
NEAR RRT TO BJI TO ADC. THE 50 MILE WIDE BAND WAS MOVING TO THE SSE
AROUND 15 KNOTS.

ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 20 HUNDRED FT EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY
GRIGGS COUNTY TO POLK COUNTY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER. A FINGER
EXTENDED NORTHWEST FROM GRIGGS COUNTY INTO CAVALIER AND TOWNER
COUNTIES. THE BAND WAS ALSO MOVING SSE ABOUT 15 KNOTS. CONCURRENTLY
THE WEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND WAS CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT ABOUT
15 KNOTS.

EXPECT BAND OF CLOUD IN NORTHWEST ZONES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
COUPLE HOURS. OTHER BANDS WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT/DISSIPATE.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

701 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014