Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/05/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
753 PM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. THERE HAS
BEEN JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW WEAK SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE THROUGH WILL INCREASE THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND LOWER
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES NEARS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW 6000 FEET 16-19Z SATURDAY.
NORMAL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME
NORTHEAST SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM MDT FRI APR 4 2014/
SHORT TERM...A FEW ECHOES SHOWING UP ON THE 1.5 DEGREE SCAN OVER
NORTHERN PARK COUNTY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN CLEAR CREEK COUNTY BOUNDARY
WHERE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS COMBINING WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SHOWS THESE WEAK SHOWERS
DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS BY THIS EVENING WITH
OTHER SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE
SHOWERS TO REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY HIGH BASED WITH MINIMAL RAIN OR
SNOW OCCURRING AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES AND LOCAL UPSLOPE WEAKENS. ALONG NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS...WAVE CLOUD HAD DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART
WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S. STILL SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL UPSTREAM WHICH WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WEAK LIFT INCREASES ACROSS MOUNTAINS
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MINS FAIRLY MILD IN VALLEY AREAS. ON
SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES DURING THE MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD COLORADO. MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND DEEPENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
MID LEVEL AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BETTER CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.
PLAINS TO REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. MOST OF
THE LIFT STAYS SOUTH OF COLORADO WITH ONLY WEAK OROGRAPHICS WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BUT DECENT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. DID BUMP
THE MOUNTAIN POPS MOST LOCATIONS AS A RESULT. WITH LACK OF
OROGRAPHICS...SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. ACROSS PLAINS...MODELS
SHOW WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK
UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. WITH THE INCREASING
LIFT AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES...SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHERE THE UPSLOPE WILL
OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN. TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM...BROAD TROUGH MOVES ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY...KEEPING A
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THERE IS SOME COOLING ALOFT
SO THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING SNOW TO THE SURFACE ON THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH STILL AT FAIRLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE PRETTY LOCALIZED AS
SNOW FROM THE LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MELT. MODELS STILL
TRENDING A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING ONTO THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF US THOUGH...BUT MAYBE BETTER COOLING AND MORE WIND.
SOME SHOWERS ALREADY GOT ADDED FOR MONDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY SHORT LIVED...PERHAPS JUST A LINE OF SHOWERS EARLY
MONDAY...THEN RAPID WARMING ALOFT/DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. ECMWF STILL HAS ALL THIS A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH
LESS IMPACT THAN WHAT THE GFS SHOWS...AND RAPID CLEARING DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.
WARM RIDGE COMES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY IS STILL
LOOKING PRETTY DRY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD WARMING...ONLY
CONCERN IS IF SOME CLOUDS COME IN BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE IT AT THIS
POINT. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED THINGS UP A LITTLE OVER GUIDANCE
AGAIN...COULD WIND UP AROUND 80 IF NOTHING MESSES IT UP. A
SHORTWAVE WELL NORTH OF US SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE BY
THURSDAY...AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER WAVE COMING OVER IN THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. ECMWF HAS INSISTED ON A BIT STRONGER
FRONT THURSDAY...AND HAS A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN THE LATEST RUN.
BUT DETAILS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE. NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME COOLING IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS IN ORDER.
AVIATION...WAVE CLOUD HAD DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...STILL
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE DECREASING BY 01Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL. WINDS
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...THEN BECOME
NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE CEILINGS
AROUND 6000 FEET AGL BY 21Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....GIMMESTAD
UPDATE/AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
122 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...THEN
PASS NEARBY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WERE TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF THEY NYC METRO AREA
WHERE MAX TEMPS WERE VERY CLOSE TO BEING MET ALREADY...AND TO
LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS CT WHERE STRONG MIXING HAS MIXED DOWN QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE SLIGHTLY
EARLIER SEA BREEZE TIMING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS OBS INDICATE THE
SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY FORMED ALONG THE CT COAST...AND IS IN THE
PROCESS OF FORMING ACROSS NY HARBOR. USED THE LATEST HRRR FOR SFC
WINDS AS IT MATCHED UP WELL WITH CURRENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NW WILL BRING US A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE. H9
FORECAST TEMP THIS AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5C...THEREFORE EXPECTING
HIGHS AROUND 60 ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WARMEST AREAS OF NE NJ...NYC
AND ADJACENT AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE
WITH LOW AND MID-LEVEL PVA...SUPPORTING SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...HOWEVER THIS WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RIDGING
ALOFT AND RELATIVELY HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE EAST. LIGHT RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.
WE LOSE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIFT...SO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE
LIKELY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH AN OVERCAST SKY AND AN
EAST FLOW...TEMPS DURING THE DAY ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW/TRIPLE POINT
APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO US LATE AT NIGHT. A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LIKELY LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEK. GFS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN LATEST ECMWF TO LIFT TRIPLE POINT LOW
OFF TO THE NE SAT MORNING...SO HAVE STARTED THE DAY OFF WITH
LINGERING CHANCE POP MAINLY FOR CT/LONG ISLAND...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY DRY CONDITIONS ON A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW...AND HIGHS 55-60.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING DROPPING LOWS INTO UPPER 20S WELL
INLAND AND 30S MOST ELSEWHERE.
THE COMBO OF THE SFC HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
S-SW FLOW...AND WITH FLAT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS HIGHS FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST SHOULD REACH 60-65...WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HOLDS HIGHS
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT TO THE MID 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SAT NIGHT VIA WEAK WAA AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF CUTOFF LOWS MOVES NE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...CHANCES FOR OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
FROM MON INTO MON EVENING AS A LEADING WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. PER WPC GUIDANCE SHOWING THE WARM FRONT STILL TO THE
SOUTH MON MORNING AND A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT/TRIPLE POINT LOW
NEARBY...CONTINUED LIKELY POP INTO TUE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST DESPITE FROPA. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO
INDICATE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. DRY CONDS FCST FOR NOW
FOR WED...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AND MAY DEPEND ON THE TRACK
OF THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE.
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF AVG...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG BY WED
VIA CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR TODAY. SUB-VFR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS
VARY FROM WEST TO NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE TERMINALS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION RIGHT NOW IS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CT COAST WHERE
SEABREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED.
SEABREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. WINDS HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
TONIGHT...WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDAY
FRIDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME.
SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY BECOME BKN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN AFTER 03Z
ON FRIDAY FOR THE CITY TERMINALS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. CIGS
WILL FALL TO MVFR AFTER 07Z FRIDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOWN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS COULD FALL TO IFR FOR A PERIOD.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS TODAY.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. IF SEA BREEZE DOES DEVELOP...TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI AFTERNOON-FRI NIGHT...A CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA.
.SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SATURDAY.
.MON...VFR. -RA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MARGINAL VFR
POSSIBLE. INCREASING E/SE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
.MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN RA.
.TUES...IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT A BETTER CHANCE
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE
DURING FRIDAY AS WINDS PICK UP WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY FOR
ALL WATERS. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL ZONES.
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN SCA LEVEL WINDS/SEAS ON THE OCEAN SAT
INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH SCA GUSTS DEVELOPING BRIEFLY ON THE ERN
SOUND/BAYS SAT AFTERNOON. QUIET CONDS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR ALL WATERS
SUNDAY INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS...THEN INCREASING
SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW
COULD BRING SCA CONDS TO THE OCEAN MON NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/2 INCH EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN
MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1259 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...THEN
PASS NEARBY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE WERE TO
RAISE MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF THEY NYC METRO AREA
WHERE MAX TEMPS WERE VERY CLOSE TO BEING MET ALREADY...AND TO
LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS CT WHERE STRONG MIXING HAS MIXED DOWN QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE SLIGHTLY
EARLIER SEA BREEZE TIMING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS OBS INDICATE THE
SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY FORMED ALONG THE CT COAST...AND IS IN THE
PROCESS OF FORMING ACROSS NY HARBOR. USED THE LATEST HRRR FOR SFC
WINDS AS IT MATCHED UP WELL WITH CURRENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NW WILL BRING US A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE. H9
FORECAST TEMP THIS AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5C...THEREFORE EXPECTING
HIGHS AROUND 60 ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WARMEST AREAS OF NE NJ...NYC
AND ADJACENT AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE
WITH LOW AND MID-LEVEL PVA...SUPPORTING SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...HOWEVER THIS WILL PROBABLY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RIDGING
ALOFT AND RELATIVELY HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE EAST. LIGHT RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.
WE LOSE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LIFT...SO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE
LIKELY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH AN OVERCAST SKY AND AN
EAST FLOW...TEMPS DURING THE DAY ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW/TRIPLE POINT
APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO US LATE AT NIGHT. A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LIKELY LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEK. GFS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN LATEST ECMWF TO LIFT TRIPLE POINT LOW
OFF TO THE NE SAT MORNING...SO HAVE STARTED THE DAY OFF WITH
LINGERING CHANCE POP MAINLY FOR CT/LONG ISLAND...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY DRY CONDITIONS ON A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW...AND HIGHS 55-60.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING DROPPING LOWS INTO UPPER 20S WELL
INLAND AND 30S MOST ELSEWHERE.
THE COMBO OF THE SFC HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
S-SW FLOW...AND WITH FLAT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS HIGHS FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST SHOULD REACH 60-65...WHILE ONSHORE FLOW HOLDS HIGHS
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT TO THE MID 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SAT NIGHT VIA WEAK WAA AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF CUTOFF LOWS MOVES NE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...CHANCES FOR OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE
FROM MON INTO MON EVENING AS A LEADING WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. PER WPC GUIDANCE SHOWING THE WARM FRONT STILL TO THE
SOUTH MON MORNING AND A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT/TRIPLE POINT LOW
NEARBY...CONTINUED LIKELY POP INTO TUE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFTERNOON UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST DESPITE FROPA. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO
INDICATE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. DRY CONDS FCST FOR NOW
FOR WED...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AND MAY DEPEND ON THE TRACK
OF THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE.
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF AVG...WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...THEN A LITTLE BELOW AVG BY WED
VIA CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR TODAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. SEA BREEZES MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT HOWEVER.
SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY BECOME BKN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN AFTER
03Z ON FRIDAY FOR THE CITY TERMINALS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS TODAY.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. IF SEA BREEZE DOES DEVELOP...TIMING OF WIND SHIFT
MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR TWO. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-FRI NIGHT...A CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA.
.SAT-SUN...VFR. GUSTY W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SATURDAY.
.MON...VFR. -RA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MARGINAL VFR
POSSIBLE. INCREASING E/SE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A GUST OR TWO UP
TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT A BETTER CHANCE
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE
DURING FRIDAY AS WINDS PICK UP WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY FOR
ALL WATERS. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL ZONES.
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN SCA LEVEL WINDS/SEAS ON THE OCEAN SAT
INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH SCA GUSTS DEVELOPING BRIEFLY ON THE ERN
SOUND/BAYS SAT AFTERNOON. QUIET CONDS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR ALL WATERS
SUNDAY INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS...THEN INCREASING
SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW
COULD BRING SCA CONDS TO THE OCEAN MON NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF 1/2 INCH EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN
MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GS/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/JP
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JC/GOODMAN
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
919 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. NEXT WEEK, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF
COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND AFFECT OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY FOLLOW FOR MIDWEEK,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NEXT ESTF UPDATE WE ADDED THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG BEYOND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE IT ALREADY WAS CARRIED. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO OUR CWA. THEY ARE LOSING
THEIR CONVECTIVE SUPPORT DEFINITELY AT THE SURFACE AND EVEN SO
SOMEWHAT ALOFT. SO NO THUNDER EXPECTED AND AN OVERALL DOWNWARD
TREND IN INTENSITY. BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE RAP AND HRRR,
WE LOWERED POPS BEYOND 05Z MORE RAPIDLY. THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT
TO CREST THE APPALACHIANS, BUT THE MARINE INFLUENCED AIR MASS IS
STILL CHILLIER HERE, SO THE IDEA OF SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT
LOOKS TO BE HOLDING. TEMPS ARE GOING CLOSER TO PLAN, SO NO BIG
ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXITING LAKE HURON AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE TRIPLE
POINT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD HOVER AROUND THE ONE-HALF INCH MARK IN
THE NORTH AND EVEN LESS FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
OR SLIGHTLY AFTER. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP AGAIN TOWARD MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
AN INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SATURDAY WILL START OUT MAINLY CLEAR
EXCEPT IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE COULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOT
QUITE THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL MID AFTERNOON, IT MIGHT TAKE JUST A BIT
LONGER FOR SKIES TO CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA, SO HAVE PLACED UP TO A 50% SKY COVER IN THE GRIDS. WEST
WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE AT TIMES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH, WITH A FEW SPOTS
PERHAPS REACHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF ON A NICE NOTE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST STATES BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT NEAR AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY,
AS HIGHS WILL REACH MOSTLY THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.
A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED INTO THE WORK WEEK AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS INTO MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
LATER TUESDAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL TRACK
OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE COLD FRONT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS OUR REGION, THERE DOES LOOK TO BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 1 TO 1.5
INCH RANGE, MAKING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY. WHILE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE ARE CENTERED AROUND LATE
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WE ALSO HAVE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVER THE REGION, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
INTO MIDWEEK ON WEDNESDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD, BUT WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE, ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT.
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND EXTEND ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SPRINGTIME DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR OUR AREA THURSDAY WITH MIXED
SUN AND CLOUDS AND DAYTIME HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
MEANWHILE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT,
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS FAIRLY
LIMITED, AND WE CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
00Z TAFS ARE IFR FOR TONIGHT WITH A BETTER (VFR) BUT WINDIER DAY
ON SATURDAY.
FOR THIS EVENING, IFR CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY WITH VSBY DUE TO FOG.
SOME OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IS ALSO CAUSED BY DRIZZLE. SHOWERS
ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, CHOSE THESE AS THE PTYPE GROUP.
HIGHEST CHANCES NORTHWEST TERMINALS. EAST WINDS ARE DECREASING
AND SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. A LOW IS FORECAST TO
FORM ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THIS SHOULD DECREASE WINDS
FURTHER, BUT ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS AS EITHER IFR OR LIFR DUE TO
BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS.
LATE TONIGHT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VSBYS AND VFR TO MVFR CIGS.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
SATURDAY GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THERE
COULD BE A VFR STRATOCU CIG DURING THE MORNING, BUT CHANCES
DECREASE AS DAY PROGRESSES. SUSTAINED WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. WIND IN FINAL FORECAST PERIOD IS AN
AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE DAY, SO MAY BE TOO WINDY AT START OF
MORNING WITH SOME PEAK GUSTS REACHING AROUND 35 KTS AT WINDIER
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY, THEN
DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY MORNING, BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES.
THE EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEMS WAS
KICKING UP WINDS IN THE 25 KT RANGE OVER THE MARINE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS CONTINUES. THE WINDS
MAY ACTUALLY EXPERIENCE A RELATIVE LULL THIS EVENING WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES JUST A BIT AS AN IMPULSE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. FOR THIS REASON THE
SCA ON THE OCEAN GOES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 3 TO 4 FOOT VALUES EXPECTED ON THE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 5 FEET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED TO DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST GUIDANCE, BUT CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MONDAY...WIND GUSTS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS
BY LATE IN THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY, AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GIGI/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/MIKETTA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
...LOW RAIN CHANCES CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
.UPDATE...A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WAS EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE WHILE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WAS RAPIDLY
SHREDDING APART ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE HRRR ADVERTISING A LOW
CHANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE THE FL PANHANDLE SEA BREEZE
WILL CONVERGE WITH SHALLOW FORCING ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
LIGHT PRECIP MAY OCCUR...AND INDICATED RAIN CHANCES OF ONLY
15-20%. AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUED TO SHOW LOW RAIN CHANCES CREEPING
IN FROM THE WEST AS THE FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...BUT CONFINED PRECIP CHANCES TO ONLY 20-30% ALONG AND WEST
OF A JESUP-WAYCROSS-LIVE OAK LINE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION BUT GIVEN
PASSING CLOUD COVER DENSE FOG FORMATION CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
ADVERTISED PATCHY FOG ACROSS ALL ZONES WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE LOW STRATUS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF MAY SETTLE CLOSER THE SURFACE. MILD
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MINS IN LOW 60S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S
RIVER/COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...MODELS SHOW STRATUS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW
LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS REACHING GNV
06Z-08Z...AND EAST COAST TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z-11Z. LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SHOULD LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z. HAVE VCSH IN
FORECAST AFTER 17Z AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH INTO SE GA.
&&
.MARINE...S WINDS 10-15 KTS NEARSHORE WITH SEAS 2-3 FT...WHILE
FARTHER OFFSHORE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WHERE
BUOY 41008 REPORTED S WINDS 16G18 KTS LAST HOUR AND 2 FT SEAS.
ADJUSTED SEA HEIGHTS DOWN AROUND 1 FT BASED ON RECENT
OBS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH WINDS RELAXING AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS OFFSHORE.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 62 80 57 74 / 20 50 60 60
SSI 65 76 60 71 / 10 50 40 40
JAX 62 85 61 80 / 10 40 40 30
SGJ 64 80 63 78 / 10 30 30 30
GNV 61 84 61 82 / 10 30 20 20
OCF 61 85 61 84 / 0 20 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZIBURA/MCALLISTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
948 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
823 PM CDT
HAD UPDATED EARLIER TO ADD MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-EVENING.
VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF SOME GRAUPEL ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST IL THIS
EVENING. BACK EDGE OF RADAR-DETECTABLE PRECIP WAS APPROACHING THE
FOX RIVER VALLEY...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING
AS THE VORT MOVES EAST OF AREA. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY ERODE THE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...WITH EXPANSIVE CLEARING NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA PER GOES 11-3.9 IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE...ALSO LOWERED WINDS/GUSTS A BIT IN STEP WITH CURRENT
OBS TRENDS.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
203 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. WITH A
STILL 30 MB SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LAKE HURON TO WESTERN
IA...THE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 30-35 MPH AT
TIMES EARLY THIS EVE. SOME OF THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER ACROSS IA AND
SOUTHERN MN HAS MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE TO IT SO EXPECT IT TO FADE
QUICKLY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION ERODING AT IT. HAVE GONE WITH A
QUICKER CLEARING THAN MOST MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS WOULD
INDICATE...WITH SCATTERING FROM MID-EVE THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT.
ALREADY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAYBE
WITH A LITTLE MORE HASTE ONCE SCATTERING OCCURS. LOWS LOOK TO SETTLE
AT 25 TO 30 OR ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW EARLY APRIL NORMALS.
MTF
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE A DAY
OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE GRADUALLY MODIFYING
BUT STILL A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE STRONG APRIL SUN
AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING WILL YIELD A NICE DAY...ESPECIALLY COMPARED
TO THE WINDY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. WHILE HIGHS AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW 50S TO PERHAPS MID 50S IN SOME
SPOTS...THE ONLY CONCERN TOMORROW IS THE TIMING OF A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. NONEXISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW IT TO DO SO BY MID DAY...IF NOT
EARLIER. THIS WILL KEEP AREAS WITHIN 5 TO 10 MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN
STUCK PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS COULD TRY TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE
WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. BANKING ON CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO
YIELD LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING A NICE WARM UP ON SUNDAY TO THE UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN. FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE SHIFT TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS ONTO THE ILLINOIS LAKESHORE. IF TIMING OF THE SHIFT
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S
PEGGED FOR THE LAKEFRONT COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING
WILL SPUR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE GULF COAST THAT WILL THEN
DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE
EASTERN LAKES ON MONDAY. THE EXACT TRACK...WITH WHICH THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH OF THE AREA SEES APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM`S
DEFORMATION AXIS. GEFS POPS FAVOR CATEGORICAL IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND LIKELIES FOR THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF CWA SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME
ACCORDINGLY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND A LAKE MICHIGAN DRIVEN
INVERSION WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS LOW 40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TO UPPER 40S-AROUND 50 INLAND. FARTHER WEST...DESPITE CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND FROM APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 50S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
AREA...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN ONLY IN THE 40S. THEN ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW RIDING
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. RAPID WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT IN DOWN SLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW COULD ENABLE HIGHS EVEN WARMER
THAN UPPER 50S CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE WARMING OF THE AIR MASS WILL
PEAK EARLY THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING TO THE MID TEENS
CELSIUS. WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW-MID
40S LOWS COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE OFF TO THE
RACES THURSDAY...THOUGH A POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. IF
THE FRONT SLOWS OR PASSAGE DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL PAST PEAK
WARMING...THEN HIGHS INTO THE 70S (!) ARE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF IS
FEATURING. SO THE MID-UPPER 60S FROM BLENDED INITIALIZATION
HOPEFULLY WILL NEED TO BE RAISED SOME. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT WELL
NORTH...WOULDNT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS WITH FROPA...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A COOLER FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EASE TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR
* WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST PROBABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
VFR BKN-OVC DECK WILL LINGER THIS EVENING BUT WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE EXPECT THE BREAKS DEVELOPING OVER WISCONSIN TO EXPAND
AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD EASE GRADUALLY THIS EVENING AND VEER TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TO START THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GRADIENT LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON. PLAN TO MAINTAIN A WIND SHIFT TO NE WITH A LAKE
BREEZE PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF CYCLE
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE
BREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINDER OF TAF ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/MVFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM CDT
MAIN CONCERN FOR LAKE MICHIGAN REMAINS THE ONGOING GALE EVENT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN SFC LOW IS MOVING INTO LWER
MICHIGAN AND WINDS ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HAVE
SHIFTED WLY AND INCREASED TO GALE FORCE WHILE THE FAR NORTH
REMAINS NELY AND JUST BELOW GALES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING GALE
WARNING AND STILL EXPECT SOME FURTHER INCREASE TO THE WIND SPEEDS
OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS THE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA
MOVES NEWD IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW. THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE HAVE NOT YET INCREASED TO GALE FORCE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALES WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF ISSUANCE TIME
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD ADVECTIONS INCREASES OVER THE
LAKE AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WHILE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY...LEADING TO STRENGTHING NWLY WINDS
AGAIN...THOUGH MORE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL
10 PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 AM
SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
849 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 845 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014
The intense area of low pressure that brought the active weather
to our area yesterday has shifted well off to our northeast early
this evening. Tight pressure gradient from the retreating low and
approaching area of high pressure to our west brought us strong
winds today with the cyclonic flow beginning to relax early this
evening resulting in a decrease in wind speeds. As usual, models
were too optimistic with respect to the clouds moving out today
with several more hours to go before we see a clearing trend work
its way into our area overnight. HRRR model and RAP forecast
soundings suggesting the timing of any clearing more towards
midnight northwest and during the early morning hours over the far
eastern counties. Will make those adjustments to the sky grids and
adjust early evening temperatures. We should have the update out
by 900 pm.
Smith
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 610 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014
Timing of clearing across the area tonight the main forecast issue
with the gusty west to northwest winds expected to diminish this
evening. High pressure will slowly push into the region late
tonight and during the day Saturday ushering in some drier air
in the 9250-850 mb layer which should result in a decrease in
cloud cover tonight and all areas seeing VFR conditions on Sat.
Most of the cigs have risen to either high MVFR or low VFR heights
across central Illinois with some significant breaks appearing now
over parts of central Iowa which should eventually make its way
into our area overnight. Surface winds will diminish from the
west and northwest this evening with speeds dropping off to around
10 kts aftr 03z. With high pressure centered over our area Saturday,
we expect light winds from the west and northwest with speeds of
10 kts or less during the day.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014
Exiting low pressure system over the Great Lakes leaving a tight
pressure gradient and gusty winds in its wake for the Midwest.
Northerly winds expected to slowly move into the region with
cooler temps for tomorrow as high pressure builds into the region.
High pressure ridge over the CWA for the weekend keeping mild
weather and mostly sunny skies in place. Next system not expected
until after midnight Sun night/Monday. For the most part, forecast
models in pretty good agreement with a quiet forecast overall.
Temperatures still a bit below normal on average and only a couple
shots at precipitation at this point.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through tomorrow...
Winds staying up a bit through the evening before the boundary
layer decouples and the low pulls a bit further to the east. Winds
not dropping below 10kts until later on Saturday morning as the
high pressure ridge moves over the region. Plenty of sunshine
tomorrow will drive temps up into the 50s, still below normal, but
closer to spring than the past couple of days.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
Warmer on Sunday with highs approaching 60. Increasingly southerly
winds through the day assisting with the WAA even though the
clouds will slowly increase with another system developing to the
SSW. The wave just off the Pacific NW coast this afternoon
eventually digs in over the SWrn CONUS and develops a sfc low that
moves through the southern Plains and up into the Ohio River
Valley late Sunday and brings a chance for showers through Monday.
For now, ILX will mainly be on the back side of the Low...putting
the SErn CWA in a spot for some prolonged rainfall. Rain slowly
clearing on Mon night/Tuesday and forecast becomes mild again
through the middle of the week until another system lays out a
boundary for the region on Friday. At this point, pops for
Thursday night remain on the low side, awaiting more detail with a
rather subtle and weak signal in the models.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
338 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
...updated short term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
An upper trough rotating through the region will drive a narrow
deformation precipitation band across the northern counties (from
around Syracuse through Garden City and Hays. Thermal profiles
indicate rain is the main precipitation type expected with only a
small probability of some wet bulbing occurring in the lowest levels
mainly over the far western counties. Between he models, The HRRR
weakens the precipitation field much more rapidly than the far more
robust NAM solutions. The airmass across the Central Plains is not
particularly cold, ans most of the colder air over NW Kansas is due
to the rain and snow cooled column. As the precipitation band
weakens and moves east this evening, northwest surface winds will
slowly weaken with time through the overnight. As skies clear
overnight radiational cooling should help surface temperatures to
plummet into the mid 20s. Slightly warmer conditions are expected on
Friday with highs expected in the upper 50s to a few low 60s in
places like the Red Hills. Winds speeds will be below average as the
surface ridge moves across western Kansas in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
The longwave trough now over western North America will be
transitioning eastward across the continent through the next several
days. As today`s shortwave trough over the central Plains lifts out
of the longwave trough, another shortwave now moving into the west
Coast will move through the mean longwave trough position and out
over the central Plains through the upcoming weekend. As this next
wave approaches, modest low level moisture return from the southern
plains Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation chances will be
increasing during the day Saturday and continuing through Sunday
before diminishing as the main upper wave continues east Sunday
night. Model sounding profiles appear warm enough that whatever
precipitation occurs will stay in liquid form. With colder mid level
temperatures accompanying the trough, there should be enough
instability for a few thunderstorms through the period. Will
highlight the time period from Sunday afternoon through Monday
evening for the convective activity.
An upper level ridge will be building over the west Coast this
weekend and spreading out over the central part of the country
through the middle part of next week. Dry and warmer weather will
return to the central High Plains from Tuesday on. Daytime high
temperatures could climb into the 80s across southwest Kansas on
Wednesday. The models suggest that a weak cold front will push south
through western Kansas by Thursday which would knock high temperatures
back somewhat for late week. Details on the timing and strength of
this cold front are not real clear this far out, however.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
IFR stratus will continue through the afternoon as a precipitation
producing deformation axis moves across northwest Kansas. The
forcing will be weakening with time, however the HRRR does indicate
potential for rain at KHYS by late in the afternoon and this
evening, with less certainty for precipitation at KDDC. IFR ceilings
should rapidly improve during the evening as subsidence behind the
deformation zone develops.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 59 36 57 / 10 0 0 30
GCK 28 59 35 58 / 50 0 0 30
EHA 28 59 38 57 / 10 0 0 40
LBL 28 60 37 57 / 10 0 0 40
HYS 27 54 33 61 / 90 0 0 20
P28 35 58 35 60 / 10 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
...Updated long term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Short range models indicate a strong upper level trough moving
eastward out of the Four Corner Regions into the Western High Plains
today bringing the possibility for precip to portions of central and
western Kansas. As the upper level system moves into the southern
Rockies early this morning, the surface low across extreme
southeastern Colorado will begin to shift eastward along the Kansas
and Oklahoma border then lift northeast across eastern Kansas as a
cold front begins to push through western Kansas. Although low level
moisture will be lacking with the bulk of it blocked off to our
east, enough mid level moisture exists with the approaching trough
axis to set the stage for rain development along and behind the
front as it pushes through this afternoon. The best chance for
precip is expected to be across more northern portions of the
forecast area, including west central Kansas and the I-70 corridor
in central Kansas where H7 frontogenetic banding is projected to
occur in better proximity to the mid/upper level wave. Enough cold
air advection in the lower levels may be enough to support brief
periods of light to moderate snow across west central and central
Kansas with limited snow accumulations possible, especially if
mixed with rain. Any precip chances will quickly come to an end
this evening as the upper level wave quickly lifts northeast into
the Upper Midwest.
Temperatures will be well below normal today as cold air surges
southward in wake of a cold front pushing through western Kansas
this afternoon. With temperatures down into the 30s(F) across
west central and portions of southwest Kansas early this morning,
look for highs only up into the 40s(F) here today, particularly with
lingering clouds through early this afternoon. A few 50s(F) may be
possible in south central Kansas where the frontal boundary remains
fairly stationary. Look for temperatures to fall easily into the
30s(F) tonight with mid to upper 20s(F) possible by sunrise Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
The longwave trough now over western North America will be
transitioning eastward across the continent through the next several
days. As today`s shortwave trough over the central Plains lifts out
of the longwave trough, another shortwave now moving into the west
Coast will move through the mean longwave trough position and out
over the central Plains through the upcoming weekend. As this next
wave approaches, modest low level moisture return from the southern
plains Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation chances will be
increasing during the day Saturday and continuing through Sunday
before diminishing as the main upper wave continues east Sunday
night. Model sounding profiles appear warm enough that whatever
precipitation occurs will stay in liquid form. With colder mid level
temperatures accompanying the trough, there should be enough
instability for a few thunderstorms through the period. Will
highlight the time period from Sunday afternoon through Monday
evening for the convective activity.
An upper level ridge will be building over the west Coast this
weekend and spreading out over the central part of the country
through the middle part of next week. Dry and warmer weather will
return to the central High Plains from Tuesday on. Daytime high
temperatures could climb into the 80s across southwest Kansas on
Wednesday. The models suggest that a weak cold front will push south
through western Kansas by Thursday which would knock high temperatures
back somewhat for late week. Details on the timing and strength of
this cold front are not real clear this far out, however.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
IFR stratus will continue through the afternoon as a precipitation
producing deformation axis moves across northwest Kansas. The
forcing will be weakening with time, however the HRRR does indicate
potential for rain at KHYS by late in the afternoon and this
evening, with less certainty for precipitation at KDDC. IFR ceilings
should rapidly improve during the evening as subsidence behind the
deformation zone develops.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 59 36 57 / 10 0 0 30
GCK 28 59 35 58 / 50 0 0 30
EHA 28 59 38 57 / 10 0 0 40
LBL 28 60 37 57 / 10 0 0 40
HYS 27 54 33 61 / 90 0 0 20
P28 35 58 35 60 / 10 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
604 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Short range models indicate a strong upper level trough moving
eastward out of the Four Corner Regions into the Western High Plains
today bringing the possibility for precip to portions of central and
western Kansas. As the upper level system moves into the southern
Rockies early this morning, the surface low across extreme
southeastern Colorado will begin to shift eastward along the Kansas
and Oklahoma border then lift northeast across eastern Kansas as a
cold front begins to push through western Kansas. Although low level
moisture will be lacking with the bulk of it blocked off to our
east, enough mid level moisture exists with the approaching trough
axis to set the stage for rain development along and behind the
front as it pushes through this afternoon. The best chance for
precip is expected to be across more northern portions of the
forecast area, including west central Kansas and the I-70 corridor
in central Kansas where H7 frontogenetic banding is projected to
occur in better proximity to the mid/upper level wave. Enough cold
air advection in the lower levels may be enough to support brief
periods of light to moderate snow across west central and central
Kansas with limited snow accumulations possible, especially if
mixed with rain. Any precip chances will quickly come to an end
this evening as the upper level wave quickly lifts northeast into
the Upper Midwest.
Temperatures will be well below normal today as cold air surges
southward in wake of a cold front pushing through western Kansas
this afternoon. With temperatures down into the 30s(F) across
west central and portions of southwest Kansas early this morning,
look for highs only up into the 40s(F) here today, particularly with
lingering clouds through early this afternoon. A few 50s(F) may be
possible in south central Kansas where the frontal boundary remains
fairly stationary. Look for temperatures to fall easily into the
30s(F) tonight with mid to upper 20s(F) possible by sunrise Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
GFS, ECMWF, and Ensembles appear to all be in good agreement with
moving an upper level trough, located off the west coast earlier
this morning, to the four corners region by Saturday afternoon. This
system will then cross the central high plains late Sunday. As this
next upper level system crosses the southwest United States on
Saturday...an area of low pressure at the surface will deepen along
the lee of the Rockies and a south/southeast flow will develop
across west Texas and western Kansas. This south/southeasterly flow
in the lower levels will begin to draw low level moisture back into
southwest Kansas. By Saturday afternoon an upper level jet
streak is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF to extend from the base of
the southwest United States upper trough into west Texas and the
left exit region will be located over the Texas panhandle and
extreme southwest Kansas. Based on improving low level moisture,
and 850-700MB warm air advection near the left exit region of this
upper level jet the chance for rain showers will be improving during
the day across southwest Kansas. The chance for precipitation will
continue through Sunday as the main upper level trough continues to
approach the area from the west and a mid level deformation zone
exits the Rockies and crosses the Central High Plains. Given the
expected cloud cover and precipitation chances over the weekend
period the cooling trend currently in the forecast still looks on
track. Also based on 925mb to 850mb temperatures at 00z Sunday will
trend highs toward the cooler 850mb mix down temperatures,
especially in the southwest where cloud cover and precipitation
chances will occur earlier than further northeast. Latest MET and
MAV guidance also hinting at this so highs on Saturday will range
from the upper 50s in far southwest Kansas to near 60 in north
central and south central Kansas. Cloud cover and the net 24hour
trend from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday supports highs on Sunday to be
around 5 degrees cooler.
On Monday the main upper level trough/low will move into the mid
Mississippi Valley as a weaker upper level disturbance, associated
with a northern branch upper level jet streak approaches from the
northwest. Based on the mid level moisture and instability under the
500mb cool pool will keep a chance/slight chance rain showers in
the forecast until this system passes.
On Tuesday an upper level ridge will begin to approach the Rockies
from the west. Downslope flow and 850mb temperatures trends
indicate a warming trend, especially mid week. Highs next week are
expected to rebound from the upper 50s to mid 60s on Tuesday to
the mid 70s to near 80 by Thursday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Cloud bases will gradually increase by late morning as drier air
and mixing occurs across western Kansas. Based on NAM BUFR
soundings and latest HRRR the current IFR/LIFR conditions will
improve into MVFR conditions between 18z and 21z. Ceilings will
then improve into the VFR category late day/early evening as an
upper level trough crosses western Kansas. There will also be a
chance for precipitation between 18z Thursday and 00z Friday as
the upper level trough crosses western Kansas. Visibilities will
improve from 1-3SM to P6SM by late morning as gusty north
northeast winds continue at 15 to 20 knots. These gusty winds will
decrease after 00z Friday as a surface ridge axis will build into
western Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 47 27 59 34 / 60 10 0 0
GCK 43 28 58 33 / 70 20 0 0
EHA 47 28 62 36 / 60 0 0 0
LBL 50 28 60 35 / 30 0 0 0
HYS 42 27 53 31 / 80 40 0 0
P28 57 35 60 33 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1109 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
UPSTREAM THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS AND THEY ARE
GRADUALLY ADVECTING BACK INTO EASTERN KY AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ROTATES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THESE WILL LIKELY WORK ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO HAVE RAISED SKY COVER OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY.
THIS ALSO LED TO AN INCREASE IN A FEW VALLEY TEMPERATURES. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND A ZFP WILL BE ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
WIND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS THE
WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE 8 PM EDT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
LATE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO NOW EXITED TO THE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT. THERE
IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN KY AND ON INTO
IL AND INDIANA WHILE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS OVER MUCH OF TN AND PARTS
OF SOUTHERN KY. OPTED TO INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS THE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND IN MANY AREAS FOR A WHILE. WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP
BASED ON THE RECENT TRENDS. MODELS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO ABOUT
-4C AROUND DAWN...SO HAVE OPTED TO LOWER MIN T ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN INTO THE UPPER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED
TO THE SOUTH AND MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT IS
PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AND SHORT
LIVED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EAST KENTUCKY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE SURROUNDING THIS BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THAT WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FRONT ALSO BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER WITH LOWER 50S AIR FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA REPLACING
THE MID 60S CURRENTLY SEEN THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S INBOUND RATHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S THAT PRECEDE THE FRONT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL
TAKE A SLOWLY DAMPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOME ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING BUT ITS IMPACT WOULD BE MITIGATED BY THE
RISING HEIGHTS. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL FAVOR THE HRRR EARLY ON
AND THEN A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS...GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PRE-FIRST PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WILL
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH NOW THAT THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAS BEEN DONE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXPIRING. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EXITING RAINS WILL HOLD IN FOR MANY MORE HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO...CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT RIDGETOP THAN IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNSHINE FOR SATURDAY WITH
SEASONABLY LOWER HEIGHTS LIMITING THE WARMUP TO THE MID 50S IN MOST
PLACES WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT A BETTER AND MORE
TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST AND ALSO ALLOWS SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE NORTH INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
FOR MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GRIDS...USED THE BC/CONSSHORT AS A STARTING
POINT WITH LITTLE ADJUSTMENT GIVEN THE CAA PATTERN. THEREAFTER...
POPULATED WITH THE CONSALL SUITE AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...
PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS AND SATURDAY DEWPOINTS. FOR
POPS...OUTSIDE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS...KEPT THEM LOW...IN LINE WITH
THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH
OF KENTUCKY AND TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUPPORTED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL LIMIT ONSET...THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD OVERPOWER THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOLER
WEATHER RETURNING BY MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
FREE WEATHER LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BY MID WEEK...PROVIDING RAIN
FREE WEATHER FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS...MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPSTREAM CLOUDS ARE IN THE
VFR RANGE AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. SME
AND LOZ SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE SOME INITIAL
MVFR AT JKL AND SJS WILL TRANSITION TO VFR BY AROUND 2Z. WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
SLACKEN OVERNIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
847 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
WIND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS THE
WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE 8 PM EDT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
LATE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO NOW EXITED TO THE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT. THERE
IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN KY AND ON INTO
IL AND INDIANA WHILE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS OVER MUCH OF TN AND PARTS
OF SOUTHERN KY. OPTED TO INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS THE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND IN MANY AREAS FOR A WHILE. WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP
BASED ON THE RECENT TRENDS. MODELS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO ABOUT
-4C AROUND DAWN...SO HAVE OPTED TO LOWER MIN T ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN INTO THE UPPER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED
TO THE SOUTH AND MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT IS
PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AND SHORT
LIVED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EAST KENTUCKY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE SURROUNDING THIS BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THAT WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FRONT ALSO BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER WITH LOWER 50S AIR FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA REPLACING
THE MID 60S CURRENTLY SEEN THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S INBOUND RATHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S THAT PRECEDE THE FRONT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL
TAKE A SLOWLY DAMPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOME ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING BUT ITS IMPACT WOULD BE MITIGATED BY THE
RISING HEIGHTS. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL FAVOR THE HRRR EARLY ON
AND THEN A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS...GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PRE-FIRST PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WILL
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH NOW THAT THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAS BEEN DONE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXPIRING. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EXITING RAINS WILL HOLD IN FOR MANY MORE HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO...CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT RIDGETOP THAN IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNSHINE FOR SATURDAY WITH
SEASONABLY LOWER HEIGHTS LIMITING THE WARMUP TO THE MID 50S IN MOST
PLACES WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT A BETTER AND MORE
TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST AND ALSO ALLOWS SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE NORTH INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
FOR MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GRIDS...USED THE BC/CONSSHORT AS A STARTING
POINT WITH LITTLE ADJUSTMENT GIVEN THE CAA PATTERN. THEREAFTER...
POPULATED WITH THE CONSALL SUITE AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...
PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS AND SATURDAY DEWPOINTS. FOR
POPS...OUTSIDE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS...KEPT THEM LOW...IN LINE WITH
THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH
OF KENTUCKY AND TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUPPORTED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL LIMIT ONSET...THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD OVERPOWER THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOLER
WEATHER RETURNING BY MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
FREE WEATHER LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BY MID WEEK...PROVIDING RAIN
FREE WEATHER FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS...MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPSTREAM CLOUDS ARE IN THE
VFR RANGE AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. SME
AND LOZ SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WHILE SOME INITIAL
MVFR AT JKL AND SJS WILL TRANSITION TO VFR BY AROUND 2Z. WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL
SLACKEN OVERNIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
252 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
Main concern in the short term is severe weather and flooding
potential tonight.
Over the past 24 hours...three convective complexes have affected
parts of the forecast area. These complexes were forecast very
poorly by the models...including the high res mesoscale models.
Based on the poor track record of the models...there is not a high
degree of confidence in the evolution of convection tonight.
Widespread convection earlier today stabilized much of southern
Illinois...southwest Indiana...and northwest Kentucky. To the
south of this activity...SPC objective analysis charts indicate
surface based capes from 1000 to 2000 j/kg as of 19z...but also
some convective inhibition. NAM/RAP model soundings indicate a
warm layer around 750 to 800 mb that may be capping development.
This warm layer will erode this evening...but then lapse rates
below 850 mb become poor.
By 04z widespread convection will develop or move into the
forecast area as a potent 500 mb shortwave over the Plains lifts
northeast...producing strong deep layer forcing in a very moist
environment. RAP forecast soundings indicate the low level jet
will increase to 60 knots as it shifts east to the Mississippi
River around or shortly after 00z. In general...shear profiles and
hodographs will become more favorable for supercells by
00z...especially west of the Kentucky Lake region. The potential
limiting factor will be low to mid level lapse rates...as noted
above.
Wind fields will become more unidirectional late this
evening...as evidenced by curved hodographs becoming more straight
line. This will result in a transition to a linear /qlcs/ storm
mode...with damaging straight line winds the primary threat.
Isolated qlcs tornadoes will be possible.
Convective complexes over the past 24 hours have produced locally
heavy rainfall...leading to some isolated flash flooding. With a
strong low level jet and unseasonably moist air mass in
place...there is a potential for more heavy rain. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued to address this potential. These complexes
have missed most of southeast Missouri...so that area was not
included in the watch.
The cold front will exit the khop/kevv areas by 12z...bringing an
end to all activity. There may be considerable instability
cu/stratocu during the day...per gfs and nam model soundings.
Temps will generally remain steady in the 50s with gusty
northwest winds.
Friday night through Saturday night will be mainly clear and cool
with some potential for frost in the early morning hours. Surface
high pressure will pass over or just north of the forecast area on
Saturday.
.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
The next weather system takes shape to our south Sunday, and for at
least the second consecutive day, moves in with pcpn Sunday night
and extends that at least through part of early next week.
This happens as a broad long wave trof carves out across the eastern
half of the country, with us in the cool/damp flow underneath. We`ll
go ahead and accept the allblended pops for the Sunday night through
Tuesday time period, focusing on the best chance time period Sunday
night as the system lifts out. Elevated instability there continues
to support the isolated mention of thunder we inherited, so we kept
it.
Temps remain in balance with consistently forecast highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. These
represent values some 10 degrees or more below climo norms for this
time of year...though some hint at warming a little toward the end
of the period is noted.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
Active convection will take low VFR or MVFR conditions to temporary
IFR conditions. Cold frontal passage tonight will mark most
restrictive flight conditions, with severe weather possible from
late afternoon til system passes. Strong gusty southerlies ahead of
the system will shift to the west late tonight after its passage.
Clouds should disperse tomorrow morning and return to VFR flight
conditions in the wake of the system`s departure.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ001>022.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ076-087-111-112.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...DH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
329 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT WILL MEANDER ABOUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SENDING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AFTER THIS EVENING BUT LOOKING OVER
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT TO SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN POTENTIALLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD BACK TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER LATE TONIGHT. THEN...SHOWERS
AND STORM WILL REENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER. WITH TREES YET TO LEAF OUT
HERE LOCALLY (AND THUS NOT ABSORBING THE AMOUNT OF GROUNDWATER THEY
WOULD WHEN FULLY LEAFED) AND PWATS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE 99TH
PERCENTILE...RUNOFF FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND POOR DRAINING URBAN AREAS.
THE OTHER CONCERN REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
AIRMASS HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SBCAPE IS APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. THINK THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL
BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
TOMORROW/S THREAT AGAIN REVOLVES AROUND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
BUILD BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CURRENT PROJECTIONS PUT THE
FRONT THROUGH HERE AROUND MIDDAY...SO THAT WOULD SUPPORT A LESSER
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAN SHOULD THE FRONT COME THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH SO A WIND HEADLINE WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE PERIOD WILL END QUIETLY AS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR
EAST END EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...WITH SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN OUR WESTERN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING A RELATIVELY
NICE...BUT COOLER WEEKEND. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO THE
60S BY SUNDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL
EMERGE FROM THE GULF COAST REGION LATE SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION AND ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
PLACE EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG TROUGHING SETTLING INTO THE REGION. THIS
TROUGHING IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING
COOLER AND PERHAPS UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. THUS...AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH FINALLY STARTS TO PULL OUT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN AS COLD AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH IS
NOT COLD ENOUGH. WARMER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TIMING THE INITIAL LINE INTO THE TAF SITES
IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
IMPACTS AFTER THAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH
DRIER. WILL LEAN ON THE HRRR MODEL AS IT APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING MUCH
BETTER LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR DATA. THIS WILL YIELD A PROLONGED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A VCTS/CB
MENTION BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z WITH THE INITIAL LINE AND THEN AGAIN
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SURFACE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
201 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED WITH TENDENCY FOR THE INBOUND
LINE OF CONVECTION TO BECOME WEST-EAST ORIENTED ON ITS SOUTHERN END.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ONGOING OVER ARKANSAS IS SHOWN BY THE HRRR TO
RIDE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. WITH TREES YET TO
LEAF OUT HERE LOCALLY (AND THUS NOT ABSORBING THE AMOUNT OF
GROUNDWATER THEY WOULD WHEN FULLY LEAFED) AND PWATS PROGGED TO
APPROACH THE 99TH PERCENTILE...RUNOFF FROM THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
AND POOR DRAINING URBAN AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND RAN THE WATCH THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING FORECAST...GRAPHICAL AND WEB PRODUCTS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED HRRR CLOSELY AS IT IS MATCHING UP
WELL WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CONCERNED THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW INCREASING DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...IN
ADVANCE OF EASTBOUND MCS APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE FROM CELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE...AND THEN WITH THE LINE ITSELF. ALSO CONCERNED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTHERN END
OF THE MCS WILL MOVE FASTER THAN THE SOUTHERN END AND THE LINE OF
STORMS MAY BECOME ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA...AND DESPITE THE OVERALL WARMING TREND TO THE CLOUD TOPS
AS SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL WIND UP
MEASURING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST
HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER WITH A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
STRETCHED EASTWARD. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE
MCS ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE...AND THE CORE OF ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE TAMER PARTS OF THE FIRST MENTIONED COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS...AND HAVE ALIGNED THE FORECAST CLOSE TO
ITS SOLUTION THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH DAWN...BEFORE THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX DISSIPATES AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENTLY BEEFIER
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR THE BEST
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND LESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS LOOK
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AND A SMALL WINDOW OF CLOUD THINNING BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME.
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THERE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE...HOWEVER ADVERTISED INSTABILITY ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE STRONGER WINDS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
CROSSES OUT OF THE OH VALLEY...LEAVING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF THE KY TN BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS CYCLOGENESIS KICKS
INTO GEAR AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. THIS
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH SHAPING UP...WILL
ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THIS PATTERN...THE GFS
AND EURO DO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTH. THE EURO BUYS INTO A DEVELOPED
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS OUT AND BRINGS WRAP AROUND
PRECIP INTO EAST KY WHERE THE GFS SENDS IT OUT TO SEA. THIS IN
MIND...HAVE SURELY STAYED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTION IN THE DAY
6 AND 7 RANGE.
IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IS IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK...WE WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE 50S AND 60S RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TIMING THE INITIAL LINE INTO THE TAF SITES
IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
IMPACTS AFTER THAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH
DRIER. WILL LEAN ON THE HRRR MODEL AS IT APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING MUCH
BETTER LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADAR DATA. THIS WILL YIELD A PROLONGED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A VCTS/CB
MENTION BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z WITH THE INITIAL LINE AND THEN AGAIN
AFTER 15Z TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SURFACE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEORGERIAN/ABE
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1237 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATED...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED WITH TENDENCY FOR THE INBOUND
LINE OF CONVECTION TO BECOME WEST-EAST ORIENTED ON ITS SOUTHERN END.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ONGOING OVER ARKANSAS IS SHOWN BY THE HRRR TO
RIDE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. WITH TREES YET TO
LEAF OUT HERE LOCALLY (AND THUS NOT ABSORBING THE AMOUNT OF
GROUNDWATER THEY WOULD WHEN FULLY LEAFED) AND PWATS PROGGED TO
APPROACH THE 99TH PERCENTILE...RUNOFF FROM THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
AND POOR DRAINING URBAN AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND RAN THE WATCH THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING FORECAST...GRAPHICAL AND WEB PRODUCTS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED HRRR CLOSELY AS IT IS MATCHING UP
WELL WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CONCERNED THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW INCREASING DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...IN
ADVANCE OF EASTBOUND MCS APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE FROM CELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE...AND THEN WITH THE LINE ITSELF. ALSO CONCERNED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTHERN END
OF THE MCS WILL MOVE FASTER THAN THE SOUTHERN END AND THE LINE OF
STORMS MAY BECOME ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA...AND DESPITE THE OVERALL WARMING TREND TO THE CLOUD TOPS
AS SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL WIND UP
MEASURING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST
HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER WITH A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
STRETCHED EASTWARD. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE
MCS ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE...AND THE CORE OF ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE TAMER PARTS OF THE FIRST MENTIONED COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS...AND HAVE ALIGNED THE FORECAST CLOSE TO
ITS SOLUTION THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH DAWN...BEFORE THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX DISSIPATES AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENTLY BEEFIER
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR THE BEST
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND LESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS LOOK
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AND A SMALL WINDOW OF CLOUD THINNING BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME.
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THERE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE...HOWEVER ADVERTISED INSTABILITY ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE STRONGER WINDS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
CROSSES OUT OF THE OH VALLEY...LEAVING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF THE KY TN BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS CYCLOGENESIS KICKS
INTO GEAR AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. THIS
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH SHAPING UP...WILL
ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THIS PATTERN...THE GFS
AND EURO DO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTH. THE EURO BUYS INTO A DEVELOPED
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS OUT AND BRINGS WRAP AROUND
PRECIP INTO EAST KY WHERE THE GFS SENDS IT OUT TO SEA. THIS IN
MIND...HAVE SURELY STAYED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTION IN THE DAY
6 AND 7 RANGE.
IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IS IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK...WE WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE 50S AND 60S RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR BESIDES SOME TEMPORARY MVFR WITHIN A MORE
INTENSE PASSING SHOWER OR STORM. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NAILING DOWN SPECIFIC TIMES CONTINUES
TO BE PROBLEMATIC...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A VCTS FROM 16Z
ONWARD. BY 00Z OR SO...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL ALSO
ENGAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK. A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A
THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-
106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEORGERIAN/ABE
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1114 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING FORECAST...GRAPHICAL AND WEB PRODUCTS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED HRRR CLOSELY AS IT IS MATCHING UP
WELL WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CONCERNED THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW INCREASING DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...IN
ADVANCE OF EASTBOUND MCS APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE FROM CELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE...AND THEN WITH THE LINE ITSELF. ALSO CONCERNED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS INDICATIONS ARE THE NORTHERN END
OF THE MCS WILL MOVE FASTER THAN THE SOUTHERN END AND THE LINE OF
STORMS MAY BECOME ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA...AND DESPITE THE OVERALL WARMING TREND TO THE CLOUD TOPS
AS SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL WIND UP
MEASURING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST
HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER WITH A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
STRETCHED EASTWARD. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE
MCS ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE...AND THE CORE OF ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE TAMER PARTS OF THE FIRST MENTIONED COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS...AND HAVE ALIGNED THE FORECAST CLOSE TO
ITS SOLUTION THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH DAWN...BEFORE THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX DISSIPATES AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENTLY BEEFIER
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR THE BEST
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND LESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS LOOK
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AND A SMALL WINDOW OF CLOUD THINNING BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME.
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THERE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE...HOWEVER ADVERTISED INSTABILITY ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE STRONGER WINDS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
CROSSES OUT OF THE OH VALLEY...LEAVING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF THE KY TN BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS CYCLOGENESIS KICKS
INTO GEAR AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. THIS
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH SHAPING UP...WILL
ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THIS PATTERN...THE GFS
AND EURO DO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTH. THE EURO BUYS INTO A DEVELOPED
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS OUT AND BRINGS WRAP AROUND
PRECIP INTO EAST KY WHERE THE GFS SENDS IT OUT TO SEA. THIS IN
MIND...HAVE SURELY STAYED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTION IN THE DAY
6 AND 7 RANGE.
IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IS IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK...WE WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE 50S AND 60S RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR BESIDES SOME TEMPORARY MVFR WITHIN A MORE
INTENSE PASSING SHOWER OR STORM. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NAILING DOWN SPECIFIC TIMES CONTINUES
TO BE PROBLEMATIC...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A VCTS FROM 16Z
ONWARD. BY 00Z OR SO...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL ALSO
ENGAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK. A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A
THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...ABE
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
809 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA...AND DESPITE THE OVERALL WARMING TREND TO THE CLOUD TOPS
AS SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL WIND UP
MEASURING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST
HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER WITH A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
STRETCHED EASTWARD. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE
MCS ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE...AND THE CORE OF ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE TAMER PARTS OF THE FIRST MENTIONED COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS...AND HAVE ALIGNED THE FORECAST CLOSE TO
ITS SOLUTION THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH DAWN...BEFORE THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX DISSIPATES AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENTLY BEEFIER
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR THE BEST
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND LESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS LOOK
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AND A SMALL WINDOW OF CLOUD THINNING BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME.
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THERE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE...HOWEVER ADVERTISED INSTABILITY ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE STRONGER WINDS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
TARTING FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
CROSSES OUT OF THE OH VALLEY...LEAVING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF THE KY TN BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS CYCLOGENESIS KICKS
INTO GEAR AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. THIS
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH SHAPING UP...WILL
ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL FINALLY BRING AND END TO THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THIS PATTERN...THE GFS
AND EURO DO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTH. THE EURO BUYS INTO A DEVELOPED
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS OUT AND BRINGS WRAP AROUND
PRECIP INTO EAST KY WHERE THE GFS SENDS IT OUT TO SEA. THIS IN
MIND...HAVE SURELY STAYED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTION IN THE DAY
6 AND 7 RANGE.
IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IN IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW THE...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE FIRST COUPLE WEEKS OF SPRING...WE
WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S
RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR BESIDES SOME TEMPORARY MVFR WITHIN A MORE
INTENSE PASSING SHOWER OR STORM. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NAILING DOWN SPECIFIC TIMES CONTINUES
TO BE PROBLEMATIC...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A VCTS FROM 16Z
ONWARD. BY 00Z OR SO...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WILL ALSO
ENGAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK. A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A
THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
635 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA...AND DESPITE THE OVERALL WARMING TREND TO THE CLOUD TOPS
AS SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE...THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL WIND UP
MEASURING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST
HRRR...WHICH HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER WITH A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
STRETCHED EASTWARD. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE
MCS ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE...AND THE CORE OF ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE TAMER PARTS OF THE FIRST MENTIONED COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS...AND HAVE ALIGNED THE FORECAST CLOSE TO
ITS SOLUTION THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH DAWN...BEFORE THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX DISSIPATES AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENTLY BEEFIER
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR THE BEST
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND LESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS LOOK
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AND A SMALL WINDOW OF CLOUD THINNING BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME.
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THERE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE...HOWEVER ADVERTISED INSTABILITY ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE STRONGER WINDS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
TARTING FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
CROSSES OUT OF THE OH VALLEY...LEAVING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF THE KY TN BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS CYCLOGENESIS KICKS
INTO GEAR AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. THIS
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH SHAPING UP...WILL
ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL FINALLY BRING AND END TO THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THIS PATTERN...THE GFS
AND EURO DO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTH. THE EURO BUYS INTO A DEVELOPED
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS OUT AND BRINGS WRAP AROUND
PRECIP INTO EAST KY WHERE THE GFS SENDS IT OUT TO SEA. THIS IN
MIND...HAVE SURELY STAYED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTION IN THE DAY
6 AND 7 RANGE.
IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IN IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW THE...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE FIRST COUPLE WEEKS OF SPRING...WE
WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S
RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 THROUGH
10Z...INCLUDING SME AND LOZ...HOWEVER EXPECT OVERALL CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN VFR BESIDES SOME TEMPORARY MVFR WITHIN A MORE INTENSE PASSING
SHOWER. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
TIMES AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE DURING THE
DAY...HOWEVER CAN NOT INCLUDE MORE THAN A VCTS FOR NOW FROM 15Z
ONWARD UNTIL TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR. BY 00Z...THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
WILL ALSO ENGAGE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER WITH A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
STRETCHED EASTWARD. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE
MCS ALIGNED FROM SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE...AND THE CORE OF ANOTHER LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE TAMER PARTS OF THE FIRST MENTIONED COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS...AND HAVE ALIGNED THE FORECAST CLOSE TO
ITS SOLUTION THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO LIKELY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH DAWN...BEFORE THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX DISSIPATES AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENTLY BEEFIER
CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ALLOW FOR THE BEST
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST...AND LESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS LOOK
TO REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...ALTHOUGH A FEW 80 DEGREE
READINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AND A SMALL WINDOW OF CLOUD THINNING BY
AROUND LUNCHTIME.
POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THERE WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE...HOWEVER ADVERTISED INSTABILITY ALSO CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN
GUSTY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE SEVERE THREAT AND THE STRONGER WINDS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
TARTING FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
CROSSES OUT OF THE OH VALLEY...LEAVING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OH
VALLEY FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES AND A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
JUST SOUTH OF THE KY TN BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS CYCLOGENESIS KICKS
INTO GEAR AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY. THIS
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH SHAPING UP...WILL
ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL FINALLY BRING AND END TO THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. CONCERNING THIS PATTERN...THE GFS
AND EURO DO HAVE SOME GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTH. THE EURO BUYS INTO A DEVELOPED
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS OUT AND BRINGS WRAP AROUND
PRECIP INTO EAST KY WHERE THE GFS SENDS IT OUT TO SEA. THIS IN
MIND...HAVE SURELY STAYED CLOSE TO THE ALL BLEND SOLUTION IN THE DAY
6 AND 7 RANGE.
IN A BIT MORE DETAIL...SPRING SURELY HAS MADE ITS PRESENCE FELT AS
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY ON SATURDAY...EVEN WITH SOME 850MB MINUS 2
AND 4 ISOTHERMS MOVING IN COME FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA IN THE EAST AS WELL...SO A WEST TO EAST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON TAP INTO SATURDAY. FOR THE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT...QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING HERE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION. WHAT STILL IN IN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT INTO KY FURTHER TO THE WEST...PUTTING EAST KY FIRMLY INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AND THEN BRINGING A LINE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW THE...THE JET PUNCHES RIGHT UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. A PRETTY INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP
NEXT WEEK. ALSO...WHILE WE WILL BE IN A COOLER PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT LIKE WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE FIRST COUPLE WEEKS OF SPRING...WE
WILL STILL BE HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S
RESPECTIVELY. THOUGH...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 THROUGH
10Z...INCLUDING SME AND LOZ...HOWEVER EXPECT OVERALL CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN VFR BESIDES SOME TEMPORARY MVFR WITHIN A MORE INTENSE PASSING
SHOWER. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
TIMES AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE DURING THE
DAY...HOWEVER CAN NOT INCLUDE MORE THAN A VCTS FOR NOW FROM 15Z
ONWARD UNTIL TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR. BY 00Z...THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
WILL ALSO ENGAGE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
218 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRETTY SUSTAINED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE AID OF A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS AT 850 MB FEEDING IN MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA. THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STARTING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...AND THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
CONVECTION GRADUALLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS. AS SUCH...HAVE
BEEFED UP THE POPS OVERNIGHT...AND ALLOWED FOR SOME SPILL OVER TO THE
NORTH...WHERE ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX MAY SPAWN
NEW CONVECTION. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS. ALSO
UPDATED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY TO BETTER DEPICT THE ANTICIPATED AREAL
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD
BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO...HAS SINCE MADE A SUDDEN SHIFT IN MOVEMENT TO THE EAST.
THIS CELL HAS SPAWNED OTHER SMALLER STORMS AROUND IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH BOYLE...MERCER...AND GERRARD COUNTIES. IF THIS SMALL CLUSTER
OF STORMS CONTINUE ON THEIR CURRENT DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT...PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY COULD EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY 1Z THIS EVENING. THE
MODELS REALLY HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY YET...SO ALL
UPDATES THAT WERE MADE WERE BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 3Z THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
THIS AFTERNOON A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM EASTERN KY
TO SOUTHERN IL...AND THEN TO LOW PRESSURE OVER OK. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS OCCURRED ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WAS FURTHER WEST
WHERE THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WAS PROVIDING BETTER INFLOW FROM THE
GULF. FORECAST MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THE CONVECTION ALL THAT WELL
TODAY...A SIGN OF THE WARM SEASON WEATHER PATTERN WHICH WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE COMMON IN THE COMING WEEKS. TRYING TO TIME/TRACK
CONVECTIVE PRECIP WILL BE A CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
AT THIS POINT...IT IS BETTER TO DEAL IN GENERALITIES. AS THE LOW
HEADS NE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS WE WILL SEE AN OVERALL
INCREASE IN POP WITH TIME. TRYING TO FIND A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE NAM
AND GFS YIELDS AN ENHANCED POP LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD
FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH KY. WINDS
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT OUR INSTABILITY WILL
BE RATHER WEAK. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAINTAINS ITSELF AND ARRIVES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE MORNING OR DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THIS DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG AND ANY
SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY AND AN
EVEN GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE
DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT IS
THEN PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST SPREADING CLOUDS BACK INTO OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON
MONDAY. SOME RAIN SHADOWING MAY OCCUR WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL AFFECT MOST
EVERYBODY SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EITHER...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER BEHIND OVER OUR REGION. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN OUR
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 THROUGH
10Z...INCLUDING SME AND LOZ...HOWEVER EXPECT OVERALL CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN VFR BESIDES SOME TEMPORARY MVFR WITHIN A MORE INTENSE PASSING
SHOWER. SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
TIMES AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RE-FIRE DURING THE
DAY...HOWEVER CAN NOT INCLUDE MORE THAN A VCTS FOR NOW FROM 15Z
ONWARD UNTIL TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR. BY 00Z...THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
WILL ALSO ENGAGE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1221 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section only.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
Main concern in the short term is severe weather potential...with
the greatest risk expected late Thursday through Thursday night.
In the near term...a strong surface warm front was located just
south of a line from kmdh to kowb at 19z. The models have been too
quick to lift the front northward. Relied on the HRRR guidance for
this front...meaning the front will be nearly stationary from the
kevv/kowb area to kmdh well into the evening. The front may not
clear the Interstate 64 corridor until midnight or later. Widespread
elevated convection north of the front should remain generally along
and north of I 64.
Late this evening into the overnight hours...showers and storms will
increase in coverage across the entire region as the southwest flow
aloft becomes more active. The models indicate a series of weak
impulses originating in the subtropical Pacific will begin to affect
our region. In the lower levels...the southerly low level jet will
increase to between 40 and 50 knots by 12z. Some locally heavy rain
is possible...mainly across southern IL and southeast MO. The severe
weather potential will be rather limited by lack of surface based
instability. Enough elevated instability will be present for some
hailers...especially given wet bulb zero heights around 10k feet.
Damaging wind potential will be limited by weak low level lapse
rates.
On Thursday...there may be a lull in the activity during the
morning. Activity should increase during the afternoon as daytime
heating destabilizes the atmosphere. The 12z gfs/09z sref indicate
surface based capes will be near 2000 j/kg later in the afternoon
across southeast MO and southwest IL. The shear/instability
parameters are strongly favorable for supercells across Missouri
during the afternoon. Any activity that forms east of the
Mississippi River will be in a less favorable environment for
supercell structures.
By late Thursday night...the activity is likely to congeal into a
QLCS by the time it reaches sw Indiana and the Pennyrile region of
west Kentucky. By midnight...the environment will be characterized
by high shear and low cape. This should result in more of a wind
threat than hail or tornadoes. During the transition period in the
evening hours...any combination of organized storm structures could
occur...producing damaging wind/large hail/tornadoes. This
transition appears likely to occur across southern IL and far west
Kentucky.
Storm total qpf for the entire short term period is currently
forecast from around 1.5 to almost 3 inches...with the highest
amounts in southern IL and southeast MO. These amounts are not
expected to cause significant flooding problems over a widespread
area. Localized higher amounts /isolated flooding remains possible.
The cold front will move east across the kevv/khop areas around 12z
Friday...ending all precipitation. Strong drying in the wake of the
front should result in mainly sunny skies by afternoon. Temps will
remain nearly steady in the upper 50s to lower 60s through the day.
Friday night will be markedly colder as surface high pressure
provides clear skies and decreasing winds. Some frost or even a
light freeze is possible early Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
After the mid week system makes passage, we cool off for the weekend
and cool temps stick around through the remainder of the long term
portion of the forecast.
Dry weather prevails in a zonal flow pattern through the weekend.
Another system takes shape as a long wave trof carves across the
southern Plains. A surface low develops and lifts across the lower
MS valley, bringing our next bout of rain/showers into/across the
PAH FA mainly Sunday night-Monday. This happens as a broad long wave
trof carves out across the eastern half of the country, with us in
the cool/damp flow underneath.
Net result will be a cool back into the upper 50s and lower 60s for
highs this weekend, continuing into/through next week. Lows likewise
cool back into the 40s with even some upper 30s not out of the
question. These represent values some 10 degrees or more below climo
norms for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
An increasing low level jet will result in continued late night
showers/tstms that will restrict cigs to MVFR, and vsbys to IFR at
times. Rainfall is expected to continue for at least part of the
morning Thu, under IFR cigs. During Thu afternoon, some strong to
severe thunderstorm activity is possible in scattered/isolated
fashion, with not enough timing/placement certainty to mention in
the TAFs at this time. Stronger action is expected with system
passage tomorrow night, in a more consolidated form, starting near
midnight. Meanwhile, southerly winds will increase in speed and
become gusty Thursday, on approach of a fast-moving cold front.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1245 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRETTY SUSTAINED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE AID OF A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS AT 850 MB FEEDING IN MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA. THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STARTING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...AND THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS
CONVECTION GRADUALLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 AND THE HAL ROGERS. AS SUCH...HAVE
BEEFED UP THE POPS OVERNIGHT...AND ALLOWED FOR SOME SPILL OVER TO THE
NORTH...WHERE ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX MAY SPAWN
NEW CONVECTION. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
MADE ONE LAST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT. UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS. ALSO
UPDATED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY TO BETTER DEPICT THE ANTICIPATED AREAL
COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD
BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO...HAS SINCE MADE A SUDDEN SHIFT IN MOVEMENT TO THE EAST.
THIS CELL HAS SPAWNED OTHER SMALLER STORMS AROUND IT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH BOYLE...MERCER...AND GERRARD COUNTIES. IF THIS SMALL CLUSTER
OF STORMS CONTINUE ON THEIR CURRENT DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT...PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY COULD EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY 1Z THIS EVENING. THE
MODELS REALLY HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY YET...SO ALL
UPDATES THAT WERE MADE WERE BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 3Z THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
THIS AFTERNOON A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM EASTERN KY
TO SOUTHERN IL...AND THEN TO LOW PRESSURE OVER OK. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS OCCURRED ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WAS FURTHER WEST
WHERE THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WAS PROVIDING BETTER INFLOW FROM THE
GULF. FORECAST MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THE CONVECTION ALL THAT WELL
TODAY...A SIGN OF THE WARM SEASON WEATHER PATTERN WHICH WILL BECOME
MORE AND MORE COMMON IN THE COMING WEEKS. TRYING TO TIME/TRACK
CONVECTIVE PRECIP WILL BE A CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
AT THIS POINT...IT IS BETTER TO DEAL IN GENERALITIES. AS THE LOW
HEADS NE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS WE WILL SEE AN OVERALL
INCREASE IN POP WITH TIME. TRYING TO FIND A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE NAM
AND GFS YIELDS AN ENHANCED POP LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD
FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH KY. WINDS
FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT OUR INSTABILITY WILL
BE RATHER WEAK. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAINTAINS ITSELF AND ARRIVES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE MORNING OR DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THIS DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG AND ANY
SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY AND AN
EVEN GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE
DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT IS
THEN PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST SPREADING CLOUDS BACK INTO OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON
MONDAY. SOME RAIN SHADOWING MAY OCCUR WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT A SLUG OF RAIN WILL AFFECT MOST
EVERYBODY SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EITHER...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER BEHIND OVER OUR REGION. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN OUR
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
MOSTLY VFR WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING SOME MVFR AND
IFR AT TIMES FROM AROUND 12Z-18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF KJKL.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. THE
ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE THIS EVENING...AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FIRED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING STEADILY
EASTWARD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 0 AND
1Z THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...ANTICIPATE THESE STORMS COULD STILL HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE AIRPORT AT JKL BY 2Z THIS EVENING. WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
SHOULD THEY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT TO JKL. THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN 9
AND 10Z. GOING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR NOW...BUT
CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE QUICKLY TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY THE ONES THAT COULD MOVE INTO JKL IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
425 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF JUST
EMERGING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE TO THE SOUTH...A
PACIFIC JET WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BAJA AND NORTHERN MX. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...A 30-40KT LLJ CONTINUES ACROSS EAST TX/WRN LA PER
AREA VWPS.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AND INTO THE NE GOMEX. TO THE WEST...A SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER ERN
KS...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT THROUGH ERN OK INTO NORTHERN TX.
LIFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AS REGION FALLS
UNDERNEATH THE DIFLUENT REGION BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF
PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ROUGHLY COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR THE 12HR PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON TOMORROW.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE INDICATIONS THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DEPICTED BY THE RUC AND HRRR MAY BE STARTING...WITH SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED ECHOES STARTING TO APPEAR ON REGIONAL RADARS. THIS DOES
LEND A LITTLE CREDENCE TO NAM/RUC FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED
EROSION OF THE CINH SEEN IN EARLIER RAOBS AROUND THIS TIME. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. IN ANY
EVENT...THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE KEPT SEVERE WORDING IN THE FCST
FOR TONIGHT...AND EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR ACADIANA. THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE POP FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY
TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE ONLY A
SHORT REPRIEVE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FCST TO BEGIN SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER...MORE SOUTHERN TRACKED...UPPER TROF. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
SE TX COAST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS LOUISIANA...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY PULL A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE APPEAR POSSIBLE
FOR A TWO DAY TOTAL...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
RISK SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE MEAN TROF WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS MILD BUT OTHERWISE BENIGN WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WED...THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A
MODERATING TREND BEGINNING THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL GULF WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY SEA FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO AND THEN STALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FOR THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW AFFECTS
THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 67 79 56 68 / 60 40 10 60
KBPT 68 78 57 68 / 60 30 10 60
KAEX 66 76 51 68 / 80 30 10 40
KLFT 68 81 57 69 / 60 60 20 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ACADIA-CALCASIEU-
EAST CAMERON-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST.
MARTIN-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
245 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THAT AS OF 2 PM...SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING NEAR 1500-2000J/KG WITH LI`S RANGING FROM -4 TO -6. OUR
SAVING GRACE THUS FAR HAS BEEN SBCIN VALUES RANGING NEAR
100-200J/KG. WHERE THE CAP IS BREAKING IS ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH
AS OF 2 PM WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF ADM...TO JUST WEST OF DTO
AND BWD. MESOANALYSIS CLOSER TO OUR AREA SHOWS THAT OUR REGION OF
LESS CINH WAS ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND THAT IS WHERE WE ARE
STARTING TO GET STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION POP UP THIS AFTN.
WILL BASE THIS EVENTS FORECAST CLOSELY ON THE HRRR FOR THE NEXT
18 TO 24 HOURS AND A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT/LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NAM/WRF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. HRRR SHOWING DRYLINE CONVECTION GROWING AND
INCREASING IN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHER THAN WHAT WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE I-30
CORRIDOR IN THE REGION OF WEAKER CINH...FEEL LIKE THE I-35 DRYLINE
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES BETWEEN
23-01Z. THESE CELLS...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT...
WILL EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THAT ORDER. THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES OF
TORNADO WATCH #52 BY OR SHORTLY CLOSE TO 02Z THIS EVENING WHEN THE
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF S AR/NE
TX AND N LA. IT APPEARS WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z THIS
EVENING WITH CONVECTION REACHING A MLU TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND LINE
BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. BEHIND THE EASTWARD PROPAGATING LINE WILL
LIKELY BE RENEWED CONVECTION ALONG THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR NW MOST ZONES BETWEEN 03-06Z. NOT
EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO BE SEVERE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS
OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE TRUE
FRONT ITSELF. FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE DRYLINE
TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT OUR EXTREME SE PARISHES BY
12Z FRI. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RUNNING FOR OUR SE ZONES IN THE
MORNING BUT ANYTHING THAT`S LEFT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NW GULF COAST
FOR SATURDAY AND BEGINS TO RETURN BACK NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY AS SFC
CYCLOGENESIS FORMS ON THE FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SE TX COAST AND
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARDS MLU SUN EVENING AND
NEAR MEMPHIS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND
EVENT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL RESULT IN OVERRUNNING
CONVECTION AND GIVEN FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS
OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN LIFT
FROM THE COAST ON SUNDAY...THERE COULD BE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY AND ATTM...THAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES OR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LOWER TOLEDO BEND TO
MONROE LOUISIANA LINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE
EVENT GETS NEARER IN TIME. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 03/18Z TAFS...COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN FCST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION EXISTS AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF I-30 HAS
BEEN ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. MOVEMENT OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
PREDICTED. THUS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING OF CONVECTION COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS ISSUANCES. ABUNDANT CU WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HRS BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL. CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ONCE THE CONVECTION OCCURS. THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF TSTMS AS ONE BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE WHILE ANOTHER DEVELOPS A FEW HRS LATER AS A COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR QUICKLY
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 56 71 46 67 51 / 70 0 0 20 40
MLU 63 74 46 65 50 / 70 20 0 20 50
DEQ 49 67 38 66 47 / 70 0 0 10 20
TXK 52 68 44 66 49 / 70 0 0 10 30
ELD 56 71 43 66 49 / 70 0 0 10 40
TYR 51 70 46 65 50 / 70 0 0 20 30
GGG 53 70 46 66 50 / 70 0 0 20 30
LFK 57 72 48 67 54 / 50 10 10 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
101 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 03/18Z TAFS...COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN FCST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION EXISTS AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF I-30 HAS
BEEN ELEVATED ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. MOVEMENT OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
PREDICTED. THUS...HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING OF CONVECTION COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS ISSUANCES. ABUNDANT CU WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HRS BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL. CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ONCE THE CONVECTION OCCURS. THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF TSTMS AS ONE BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE WHILE ANOTHER DEVELOPS A FEW HRS LATER AS A COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR QUICKLY
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF TUL WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR AN OKC...SPS...ABI LINE. DRYLINE
REMAINS JUST WEST OF A ABI...SJT LINE AS WELL. CONVECTION THUS FAR
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX/SE OK AND W
AR HAS BEEN ELEVATED AS THEIR REMAINS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS CAP TRYING TO ERODE ALONG
AND NEAR A LINE HUGO OKLAHOMA TO NEAR TERRELL TX AND AS A
RESULT...NEW CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
LINE MAY BE TRYING TO BECOME ROOTED BELOW THE 35HDFT CAPPING
INVERSION THAT WAS PREVALENT IN THE 12Z RAOBS FROM FWD AND SHV.
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE PLANED AN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING SO THIS
WILL TELL US MORE.
CONCERNING THE UPDATE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HAVE DISCOUNTED
THE 12Z NAM AS IT CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER THIS AFTERNOON...
SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST IS ALL WE MAY SEE...
EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE MERGER BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF N TX. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN
QUICKLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE REGION BEYOND 00Z THIS
EVENING WITH NEW CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LINE...OR INTO OUR REGION. THUS...FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT NOT BY MUCH. KEPT
LIKELY WORDING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES HOWEVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
WITH BREAKS IN THE OVC OUTSIDE PRESENTLY...WE ARE REALLY STARTING
TO MIX STRONGER WINDS DOWN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20KTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION AS OF 15Z. FOR THIS REASON...
BUMPED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS UPWARD...THUS NO CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY FOR THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD BREAKS...HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE
WHAT THE CURRENT FCST INDICATED SO BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP JUST A
DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE BOARD.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 84 56 71 46 69 / 40 60 0 0 20
MLU 84 63 74 46 68 / 20 80 10 0 20
DEQ 79 49 67 38 67 / 60 60 0 0 10
TXK 83 52 68 44 68 / 40 60 0 0 10
ELD 83 56 71 43 68 / 40 80 0 0 10
TYR 84 51 70 46 66 / 40 50 0 0 20
GGG 84 53 70 46 68 / 40 60 0 0 20
LFK 85 57 72 48 69 / 30 60 10 10 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
06/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1104 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY OF TUL WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR AN OKC...SPS...ABI LINE. DRYLINE
REMAINS JUST WEST OF A ABI...SJT LINE AS WELL. CONVECTION THUS FAR
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX/SE OK AND W
AR HAS BEEN ELEVATED AS THEIR REMAINS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THIS CAP TRYING TO ERODE ALONG
AND NEAR A LINE HUGO OKLAHOMA TO NEAR TERRELL TX AND AS A
RESULT...NEW CONVECTION THAT IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
LINE MAY BE TRYING TO BECOME ROOTED BELOW THE 35HDFT CAPPING
INVERSION THAT WAS PREVALENT IN THE 12Z RAOBS FROM FWD AND SHV.
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE PLANED AN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING SO THIS
WILL TELL US MORE.
CONCERNING THE UPDATE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HAVE DISCOUNTED
THE 12Z NAM AS IT CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER THIS AFTERNOON...
SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST IS ALL WE MAY SEE...
EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR WITH CONVECTION
LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE MERGER BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF N TX. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN
QUICKLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE REGION BEYOND 00Z THIS
EVENING WITH NEW CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LINE...OR INTO OUR REGION. THUS...FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT NOT BY MUCH. KEPT
LIKELY WORDING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES HOWEVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
WITH BREAKS IN THE OVC OUTSIDE PRESENTLY...WE ARE REALLY STARTING
TO MIX STRONGER WINDS DOWN WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20KTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION AS OF 15Z. FOR THIS REASON...
BUMPED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS UPWARD...THUS NO CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY FOR THE CURRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. BECAUSE OF
THE CLOUD BREAKS...HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE
WHAT THE CURRENT FCST INDICATED SO BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP JUST A
DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE BOARD.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AT AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH BRISK SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT 10-20KTS FOR MOST WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE MID MORNING
AND ALL AFTERNOON. OUR CLIMB WINDS BACK RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE TO
SW 20-40KTS ON INTO THE MID LEVELS. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS EDGING
INTO CENTRAL TX NOW AND WILL SWING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES THAT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS 21Z-0409Z /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 83 56 71 46 69 / 50 60 0 0 20
MLU 83 63 74 46 68 / 30 80 10 0 20
DEQ 79 49 67 38 67 / 60 60 0 0 10
TXK 81 52 68 44 68 / 50 60 0 0 10
ELD 82 56 71 43 68 / 50 80 0 0 10
TYR 82 51 70 46 66 / 50 50 0 0 20
GGG 82 53 70 46 68 / 50 60 0 0 20
LFK 84 57 72 48 69 / 40 60 10 10 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
217 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. THEN A MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 WILL SEE JUST RAIN...BUT
AREAS NORTH OF I-96 WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN COULD RECEIVE UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
ADDED JACKSON AND CALHOUN TO THE ADVISORY. ICING AMOUNTS OVER A
TENTH BEING REPORTED WITH SOME SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES SHOWING UP.
BAND OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SOME IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
TOUGH FORECAST AS THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
ON TOP OF US. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ADVISORY TODAY WILL BE
STRETCHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING. DOWN TO 33 AT LANSING AND MASON...31 AT ROCKFORD AND LAKE
ODESSA...32 AT IONIA AND CEDAR SPRINGS. WITH THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION STARTING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...IT
APPEARS TO ME THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. I COULD BE WRONG HERE...BUT THAT HAS BEEN THE
TREND. FLIGHTS OUT OF KGRR SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT IT WAS
LIKELY DRY AT THAT TIME. LOOKS LIKE A MIX FOR PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF GRR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME TIMING DETAIL TO BRINGING THE
RAIN INTO THE AREA THEN ALLOWING THE WET BULB COOLING TO RESULT IN
FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING FROM
ALMA TO ROCKFORD AND THE DEW POINT IN THOSE AREAS WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. WET BULB TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO AS LONG AS THE HRRR IS CORRECT ABOUT BRINGING THE
AREA OF RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO ONTO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE 9-10 AM TIME FRAME... WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE ENOUGH...EVEN AFTER
SUNRISE TO COOL THE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THOSE AREA TO BELOW
FREEZING AND CAUSE THE FORECAST FREEZING RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR.
THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
FIRST OFF THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE STEADY PCPN AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. AND THE GFS LOOKS QUITE DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF FGEN TYPE PCPN THIS MORNING. WE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO WET
BULB DOWN WITHIN THE SCATTERED POCKETS OF PCPN THIS MORNING...SO
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE UP FOR THE SAME AREA...AS EVEN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE ISSUES. BUT WILL
END THE HEADLINES AT NOON EVERYWHERE AS THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER AND EVEN MORE SCATTERED INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ALONG I-94 WHERE THE COMPLEX OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO SHOULD COME ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE FAR NORTHERN CWA....NEAR HIGHWAY 10...MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
ANY GLAZE WILL BE JUST ON METAL SURFACES AND ROAD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
THROUGH THE 30S. AND BECAUSE WE NOW EXPECT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE SECOND BATCH OF MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER PCPN ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING A LOW LEVEL JET WITH STRONG FORCING. THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FORCING.
BUT OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
SECOND BATCH OF PCPN MOVES IN. THIS IS WHEN EFFICIENT WET BULB
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS THE PCPN WILL BE HEAVIER AND A
PERIOD HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-96 SHOULD BEGIN TO GLAZE OVER WITH ICE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
SOME AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THEREFORE WILL PUT MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-96 BACK INTO ANOTHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM AND RUN IT
THROUGH 8 AM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA...SO WILL END THE
ADVISORY FOR OCEANA TO GRATIOT COUNTIES AT 4 AM.
SO BOTTOM LINE...THE MORNING EVENT WAS NOT PANNING OUT NEARLY AS
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER WE SHOULD
NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR THE EVENT TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BE RATHER
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO ALMA LINE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. EXPECT STRONG WINDS OF 35-40 MPH
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
AS ONE STORM MOVES OUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP AND READY TO MOVE
IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LARGELY LOOKS LIKE A RAIN EVENT BUT
SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THAT SYSTEM IS DONE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OUR SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE TRULY COLD AIR WELL NORTH IN CANADA AND THE
REALLY WARM AIR WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
ENCOURAGE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS.
AS WE HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS... THERE IS ONE
FINAL SOUTHERN STREAM STORM COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL IMPACT MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM IS
ENHANCED BY A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER STORM CROSSING THE DATELINE
DURING TODAY. THAT SYSTEM BUILDS A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST
COAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THAT IN TURN DEEPENS THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN HELPS OUR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLOW DOWN
ENOUGH TO TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY OF LATE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE
UPSTREAM RIDGING HELPING THE SYSTEM... I HAVE TO BELIEVE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES MAKE SENSE. MORE THAN ANYTHING
ELSE THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM FOR THIS AREA. I COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES TAP
ENOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ONCE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA THAT THE RAIN
MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE A RAIN EVENT.
THIS WILL NOT HELP OUR HYDRO ISSUES... THAT IS FOR SURE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LOCAL RADAR SHOWS PCPN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
LOOK FOR THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL OBS SHOW A
LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THESE LOW CIGS WILL
MOVE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH INTO THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LITTLE CHANGE ON AREA RIVERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED EVEN AFTER ADDITIONAL
RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OBSERVED SLIGHT DECLINES
OVER THE GRAND RIVER BASIN...WITH STEADY OR SLIGHT RISES ON THE
MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN. SLIGHT RISES ON THE KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME NO RIVERS ON
THIS BASIN ARE FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL.
WITH A GENERALLY DRY WEEKEND...RIVERS SHOULD RECEDE A BIT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. IF WE GET PAST MONDAY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAIN...RIVER LEVELS WILL DROP A FAIR AMOUNT NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ050-
056>059-066-067-073-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-
046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-
052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
159 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. THEN A MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 WILL SEE JUST RAIN...BUT
AREAS NORTH OF I-96 WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN COULD RECEIVE UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
TOUGH FORECAST AS THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
ON TOP OF US. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ADVISORY TODAY WILL BE
STRETCHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING. DOWN TO 33 AT LANSING AND MASON...31 AT ROCKFORD AND LAKE
ODESSA...32 AT IONIA AND CEDAR SPRINGS. WITH THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION STARTING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...IT
APPEARS TO ME THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. I COULD BE WRONG HERE...BUT THAT HAS BEEN THE
TREND. FLIGHTS OUT OF KGRR SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT IT WAS
LIKELY DRY AT THAT TIME. LOOKS LIKE A MIX FOR PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF GRR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME TIMING DETAIL TO BRINGING THE
RAIN INTO THE AREA THEN ALLOWING THE WET BULB COOLING TO RESULT IN
FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING FROM
ALMA TO ROCKFORD AND THE DEW POINT IN THOSE AREAS WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. WET BULB TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO AS LONG AS THE HRRR IS CORRECT ABOUT BRINGING THE
AREA OF RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO ONTO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE 9-10 AM TIME FRAME... WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE ENOUGH...EVEN AFTER
SUNRISE TO COOL THE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THOSE AREA TO BELOW
FREEZING AND CAUSE THE FORECAST FREEZING RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR.
THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
FIRST OFF THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE STEADY PCPN AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. AND THE GFS LOOKS QUITE DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF FGEN TYPE PCPN THIS MORNING. WE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO WET
BULB DOWN WITHIN THE SCATTERED POCKETS OF PCPN THIS MORNING...SO
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE UP FOR THE SAME AREA...AS EVEN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE ISSUES. BUT WILL
END THE HEADLINES AT NOON EVERYWHERE AS THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER AND EVEN MORE SCATTERED INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ALONG I-94 WHERE THE COMPLEX OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO SHOULD COME ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE FAR NORTHERN CWA....NEAR HIGHWAY 10...MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
ANY GLAZE WILL BE JUST ON METAL SURFACES AND ROAD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
THROUGH THE 30S. AND BECAUSE WE NOW EXPECT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE SECOND BATCH OF MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER PCPN ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING A LOW LEVEL JET WITH STRONG FORCING. THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FORCING.
BUT OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
SECOND BATCH OF PCPN MOVES IN. THIS IS WHEN EFFICIENT WET BULB
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS THE PCPN WILL BE HEAVIER AND A
PERIOD HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-96 SHOULD BEGIN TO GLAZE OVER WITH ICE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
SOME AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THEREFORE WILL PUT MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-96 BACK INTO ANOTHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM AND RUN IT
THROUGH 8 AM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA...SO WILL END THE
ADVISORY FOR OCEANA TO GRATIOT COUNTIES AT 4 AM.
SO BOTTOM LINE...THE MORNING EVENT WAS NOT PANNING OUT NEARLY AS
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER WE SHOULD
NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR THE EVENT TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BE RATHER
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO ALMA LINE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. EXPECT STRONG WINDS OF 35-40 MPH
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
AS ONE STORM MOVES OUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP AND READY TO MOVE
IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LARGELY LOOKS LIKE A RAIN EVENT BUT
SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THAT SYSTEM IS DONE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OUR SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE TRULY COLD AIR WELL NORTH IN CANADA AND THE
REALLY WARM AIR WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
ENCOURAGE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS.
AS WE HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS... THERE IS ONE
FINAL SOUTHERN STREAM STORM COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL IMPACT MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM IS
ENHANCED BY A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER STORM CROSSING THE DATELINE
DURING TODAY. THAT SYSTEM BUILDS A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST
COAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THAT IN TURN DEEPENS THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN HELPS OUR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLOW DOWN
ENOUGH TO TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY OF LATE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE
UPSTREAM RIDGING HELPING THE SYSTEM... I HAVE TO BELIEVE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES MAKE SENSE. MORE THAN ANYTHING
ELSE THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM FOR THIS AREA. I COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES TAP
ENOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ONCE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA THAT THE RAIN
MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE A RAIN EVENT.
THIS WILL NOT HELP OUR HYDRO ISSUES... THAT IS FOR SURE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LOCAL RADAR SHOWS PCPN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
LOOK FOR THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL OBS SHOW A
LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THESE LOW CIGS WILL
MOVE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH INTO THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LITTLE CHANGE ON AREA RIVERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED EVEN AFTER ADDITIONAL
RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OBSERVED SLIGHT DECLINES
OVER THE GRAND RIVER BASIN...WITH STEADY OR SLIGHT RISES ON THE
MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN. SLIGHT RISES ON THE KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME NO RIVERS ON
THIS BASIN ARE FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL.
WITH A GENERALLY DRY WEEKEND...RIVERS SHOULD RECEDE A BIT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. IF WE GET PAST MONDAY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAIN...RIVER LEVELS WILL DROP A FAIR AMOUNT NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ050-
056>059-066-067-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-
046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-
052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
104 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. THEN A MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 WILL SEE JUST RAIN...BUT
AREAS NORTH OF I-96 WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN COULD RECEIVE UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
TOUGH FORECAST AS THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
ON TOP OF US. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ADVISORY TODAY WILL BE
STRETCHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING. DOWN TO 33 AT LANSING AND MASON...31 AT ROCKFORD AND LAKE
ODESSA...32 AT IONIA AND CEDAR SPRINGS. WITH THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION STARTING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...IT
APPEARS TO ME THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. I COULD BE WRONG HERE...BUT THAT HAS BEEN THE
TREND. FLIGHTS OUT OF KGRR SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT IT WAS
LIKELY DRY AT THAT TIME. LOOKS LIKE A MIX FOR PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF GRR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME TIMING DETAIL TO BRINGING THE
RAIN INTO THE AREA THEN ALLOWING THE WET BULB COOLING TO RESULT IN
FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING FROM
ALMA TO ROCKFORD AND THE DEW POINT IN THOSE AREAS WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. WET BULB TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO AS LONG AS THE HRRR IS CORRECT ABOUT BRINGING THE
AREA OF RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO ONTO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE 9-10 AM TIME FRAME... WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE ENOUGH...EVEN AFTER
SUNRISE TO COOL THE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THOSE AREA TO BELOW
FREEZING AND CAUSE THE FORECAST FREEZING RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR.
THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
FIRST OFF THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE STEADY PCPN AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. AND THE GFS LOOKS QUITE DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF FGEN TYPE PCPN THIS MORNING. WE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO WET
BULB DOWN WITHIN THE SCATTERED POCKETS OF PCPN THIS MORNING...SO
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE UP FOR THE SAME AREA...AS EVEN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE ISSUES. BUT WILL
END THE HEADLINES AT NOON EVERYWHERE AS THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER AND EVEN MORE SCATTERED INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ALONG I-94 WHERE THE COMPLEX OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO SHOULD COME ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE FAR NORTHERN CWA....NEAR HIGHWAY 10...MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
ANY GLAZE WILL BE JUST ON METAL SURFACES AND ROAD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
THROUGH THE 30S. AND BECAUSE WE NOW EXPECT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE SECOND BATCH OF MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER PCPN ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING A LOW LEVEL JET WITH STRONG FORCING. THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FORCING.
BUT OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
SECOND BATCH OF PCPN MOVES IN. THIS IS WHEN EFFICIENT WET BULB
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS THE PCPN WILL BE HEAVIER AND A
PERIOD HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-96 SHOULD BEGIN TO GLAZE OVER WITH ICE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
SOME AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THEREFORE WILL PUT MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-96 BACK INTO ANOTHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM AND RUN IT
THROUGH 8 AM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA...SO WILL END THE
ADVISORY FOR OCEANA TO GRATIOT COUNTIES AT 4 AM.
SO BOTTOM LINE...THE MORNING EVENT WAS NOT PANNING OUT NEARLY AS
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER WE SHOULD
NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR THE EVENT TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BE RATHER
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO ALMA LINE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. EXPECT STRONG WINDS OF 35-40 MPH
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
AS ONE STORM MOVES OUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP AND READY TO MOVE
IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LARGELY LOOKS LIKE A RAIN EVENT BUT
SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THAT SYSTEM IS DONE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OUR SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE TRULY COLD AIR WELL NORTH IN CANADA AND THE
REALLY WARM AIR WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
ENCOURAGE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS.
AS WE HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS... THERE IS ONE
FINAL SOUTHERN STREAM STORM COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL IMPACT MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM IS
ENHANCED BY A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER STORM CROSSING THE DATELINE
DURING TODAY. THAT SYSTEM BUILDS A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST
COAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THAT IN TURN DEEPENS THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN HELPS OUR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLOW DOWN
ENOUGH TO TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY OF LATE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE
UPSTREAM RIDGING HELPING THE SYSTEM... I HAVE TO BELIEVE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES MAKE SENSE. MORE THAN ANYTHING
ELSE THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM FOR THIS AREA. I COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES TAP
ENOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ONCE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA THAT THE RAIN
MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE A RAIN EVENT.
THIS WILL NOT HELP OUR HYDRO ISSUES... THAT IS FOR SURE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
IT SEEMS THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES SO
I DID NOT PUT FREEZING RAIN IN ANY OF OUR TAF FORECASTS. EVEN
SO... IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THE I-96 TAF SITES COULD SEE
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING (WET
BULB COOLING ONCE THE RAIN STARTS).
THE HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF RAIN NEAR CHI REACHING THE GRR AREA IN
THE 14Z TIME FRAME. ONCE IT REACHES THIS AREA I EXPECT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE I-94 TAF SITES BRINGING IFR VSBY FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES THROUGH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE TODAY. THIS RAIN AREA WILL
MOVE OUT BY MID AFTERNOON THEN JUST MVFR CIGS UNTIL THE FRONTAL
RAIN BAND MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SHOULD BRING IFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH IT AN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LITTLE CHANGE ON AREA RIVERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE NOT EXPECTED EVEN AFTER ADDITIONAL
RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WE HAVE OBSERVED SLIGHT DECLINES
OVER THE GRAND RIVER BASIN...WITH STEADY OR SLIGHT RISES ON THE
MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN. SLIGHT RISES ON THE KALAMAZOO RIVER BASIN
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME NO RIVERS ON
THIS BASIN ARE FORECAST TO GO ABOVE BANKFULL.
WITH A GENERALLY DRY WEEKEND...RIVERS SHOULD RECEDE A BIT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. IF WE GET PAST MONDAY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAIN...RIVER LEVELS WILL DROP A FAIR AMOUNT NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ050-
056>059-066-067-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-
046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-
052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1041 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. THEN A MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 WILL SEE JUST RAIN...BUT
AREAS NORTH OF I-96 WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN COULD RECEIVE UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
TOUGH FORECAST AS THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
ON TOP OF US. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ADVISORY TODAY WILL BE
STRETCHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING. DOWN TO 33 AT LANSING AND MASON...31 AT ROCKFORD AND LAKE
ODESSA...32 AT IONIA AND CEDAR SPRINGS. WITH THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION STARTING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...IT
APPEARS TO ME THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO. I COULD BE WRONG HERE...BUT THAT HAS BEEN THE
TREND. FLIGHTS OUT OF KGRR SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT IT WAS
LIKELY DRY AT THAT TIME. LOOKS LIKE A MIX FOR PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF GRR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME TIMING DETAIL TO BRINGING THE
RAIN INTO THE AREA THEN ALLOWING THE WET BULB COOLING TO RESULT IN
FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING FROM
ALMA TO ROCKFORD AND THE DEW POINT IN THOSE AREAS WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. WET BULB TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO AS LONG AS THE HRRR IS CORRECT ABOUT BRINGING THE
AREA OF RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO ONTO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE 9-10 AM TIME FRAME... WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE ENOUGH...EVEN AFTER
SUNRISE TO COOL THE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THOSE AREA TO BELOW
FREEZING AND CAUSE THE FORECAST FREEZING RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR.
THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
FIRST OFF THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE STEADY PCPN AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. AND THE GFS LOOKS QUITE DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF FGEN TYPE PCPN THIS MORNING. WE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO WET
BULB DOWN WITHIN THE SCATTERED POCKETS OF PCPN THIS MORNING...SO
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE UP FOR THE SAME AREA...AS EVEN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE ISSUES. BUT WILL
END THE HEADLINES AT NOON EVERYWHERE AS THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER AND EVEN MORE SCATTERED INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ALONG I-94 WHERE THE COMPLEX OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO SHOULD COME ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE FAR NORTHERN CWA....NEAR HIGHWAY 10...MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
ANY GLAZE WILL BE JUST ON METAL SURFACES AND ROAD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
THROUGH THE 30S. AND BECAUSE WE NOW EXPECT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE SECOND BATCH OF MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER PCPN ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING A LOW LEVEL JET WITH STRONG FORCING. THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FORCING.
BUT OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
SECOND BATCH OF PCPN MOVES IN. THIS IS WHEN EFFICIENT WET BULB
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS THE PCPN WILL BE HEAVIER AND A
PERIOD HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-96 SHOULD BEGIN TO GLAZE OVER WITH ICE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
SOME AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THEREFORE WILL PUT MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-96 BACK INTO ANOTHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM AND RUN IT
THROUGH 8 AM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA...SO WILL END THE
ADVISORY FOR OCEANA TO GRATIOT COUNTIES AT 4 AM.
SO BOTTOM LINE...THE MORNING EVENT WAS NOT PANNING OUT NEARLY AS
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER WE SHOULD
NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR THE EVENT TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BE RATHER
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO ALMA LINE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. EXPECT STRONG WINDS OF 35-40 MPH
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
AS ONE STORM MOVES OUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP AND READY TO MOVE
IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LARGELY LOOKS LIKE A RAIN EVENT BUT
SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THAT SYSTEM IS DONE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OUR SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE TRULY COLD AIR WELL NORTH IN CANADA AND THE
REALLY WARM AIR WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
ENCOURAGE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS.
AS WE HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS... THERE IS ONE
FINAL SOUTHERN STREAM STORM COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL IMPACT MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM IS
ENHANCED BY A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER STORM CROSSING THE DATELINE
DURING TODAY. THAT SYSTEM BUILDS A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST
COAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THAT IN TURN DEEPENS THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN HELPS OUR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLOW DOWN
ENOUGH TO TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY OF LATE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE
UPSTREAM RIDGING HELPING THE SYSTEM... I HAVE TO BELIEVE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES MAKE SENSE. MORE THAN ANYTHING
ELSE THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM FOR THIS AREA. I COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES TAP
ENOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ONCE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA THAT THE RAIN
MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE A RAIN EVENT.
THIS WILL NOT HELP OUR HYDRO ISSUES... THAT IS FOR SURE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
IT SEEMS THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES SO
I DID NOT PUT FREEZING RAIN IN ANY OF OUR TAF FORECASTS. EVEN
SO... IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THE I-96 TAF SITES COULD SEE
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING (WET
BULB COOLING ONCE THE RAIN STARTS).
THE HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF RAIN NEAR CHI REACHING THE GRR AREA IN
THE 14Z TIME FRAME. ONCE IT REACHES THIS AREA I EXPECT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE I-94 TAF SITES BRINGING IFR VSBY FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES THROUGH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE TODAY. THIS RAIN AREA WILL
MOVE OUT BY MID AFTERNOON THEN JUST MVFR CIGS UNTIL THE FRONTAL
RAIN BAND MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SHOULD BRING IFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH IT AN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
CRESTS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY DOWN AREA RIVERS. THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. JUST ADVISORIES OUT TO COVER THE
SITUATION. THAT COULD CHANGE TOMORROW OR FRIDAY.
A SURGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GENERAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE
PREDICTED. THIS WOULD CAUSE LEVELS TO RESUME RISING IN THE
TRIBUTARIES BY FRIDAY. IN MOST CASES THIS WOULD RESULT IN
EXTENDING MANY OF THE ADVISORIES. IF WE START TO SEE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING WOULD
INCREASE. AS A RESULT AS THIS IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...IT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ050-
056>059-066-067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-
046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-
052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. THEN A MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 WILL SEE JUST RAIN...BUT
AREAS NORTH OF I-96 WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN COULD RECEIVE UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME TIMING DETAIL TO BRINGING THE
RAIN INTO THE AREA THEN ALLOWING THE WET BULB COOLING TO RESULT IN
FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING FROM
ALMA TO ROCKFORD AND THE DEW POINT IN THOSE AREAS WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. WET BULB TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO AS LONG AS THE HRRR IS CORRECT ABOUT BRINGING THE
AREA OF RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO ONTO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE 9-10 AM TIME FRAME... WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE ENOUGH...EVEN AFTER
SUNRISE TO COOL THE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THOSE AREA TO BELOW
FREEZING AND CAUSE THE FORECAST FREEZING RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR.
THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
FIRST OFF THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE STEADY PCPN AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. AND THE GFS LOOKS QUITE DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF FGEN TYPE PCPN THIS MORNING. WE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO WET
BULB DOWN WITHIN THE SCATTERED POCKETS OF PCPN THIS MORNING...SO
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE UP FOR THE SAME AREA...AS EVEN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE ISSUES. BUT WILL
END THE HEADLINES AT NOON EVERYWHERE AS THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER AND EVEN MORE SCATTERED INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ALONG I-94 WHERE THE COMPLEX OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO SHOULD COME ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE FAR NORTHERN CWA....NEAR HIGHWAY 10...MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
ANY GLAZE WILL BE JUST ON METAL SURFACES AND ROAD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
THROUGH THE 30S. AND BECAUSE WE NOW EXPECT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE SECOND BATCH OF MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER PCPN ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING A LOW LEVEL JET WITH STRONG FORCING. THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FORCING.
BUT OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
SECOND BATCH OF PCPN MOVES IN. THIS IS WHEN EFFICIENT WET BULB
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS THE PCPN WILL BE HEAVIER AND A
PERIOD HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-96 SHOULD BEGIN TO GLAZE OVER WITH ICE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
SOME AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THEREFORE WILL PUT MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-96 BACK INTO ANOTHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM AND RUN IT
THROUGH 8 AM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA...SO WILL END THE
ADVISORY FOR OCEANA TO GRATIOT COUNTIES AT 4 AM.
SO BOTTOM LINE...THE MORNING EVENT WAS NOT PANNING OUT NEARLY AS
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER WE SHOULD
NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR THE EVENT TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BE RATHER
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO ALMA LINE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. EXPECT STRONG WINDS OF 35-40 MPH
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
AS ONE STORM MOVES OUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP AND READY TO MOVE
IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LARGELY LOOKS LIKE A RAIN EVENT BUT
SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THAT SYSTEM IS DONE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OUR SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE TRULY COLD AIR WELL NORTH IN CANADA AND THE
REALLY WARM AIR WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
ENCOURAGE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS.
AS WE HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS... THERE IS ONE
FINAL SOUTHERN STREAM STORM COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL IMPACT MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM IS
ENHANCED BY A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER STORM CROSSING THE DATELINE
DURING TODAY. THAT SYSTEM BUILDS A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST
COAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THAT IN TURN DEEPENS THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN HELPS OUR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLOW DOWN
ENOUGH TO TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY OF LATE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE
UPSTREAM RIDGING HELPING THE SYSTEM... I HAVE TO BELIEVE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES MAKE SENSE. MORE THAN ANYTHING
ELSE THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM FOR THIS AREA. I COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES TAP
ENOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ONCE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA THAT THE RAIN
MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE A RAIN EVENT.
THIS WILL NOT HELP OUR HYDRO ISSUES... THAT IS FOR SURE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
IT SEEMS THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN IS NORTH OF THE TAF SITES SO
I DID NOT PUT FREEZING RAIN IN ANY OF OUR TAF FORECASTS. EVEN
SO... IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THE I-96 TAF SITES COULD SEE
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING (WET
BULB COOLING ONCE THE RAIN STARTS).
THE HRRR SHOWS THE AREA OF RAIN NEAR CHI REACHING THE GRR AREA IN
THE 14Z TIME FRAME. ONCE IT REACHES THIS AREA I EXPECT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE I-94 TAF SITES BRINGING IFR VSBY FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES THROUGH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE TODAY. THIS RAIN AREA WILL
MOVE OUT BY MID AFTERNOON THEN JUST MVFR CIGS UNTIL THE FRONTAL
RAIN BAND MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SHOULD BRING IFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH IT AN THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
CRESTS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY DOWN AREA RIVERS. THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. JUST ADVISORIES OUT TO COVER THE
SITUATION. THAT COULD CHANGE TOMORROW OR FRIDAY.
A SURGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GENERAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE
PREDICTED. THIS WOULD CAUSE LEVELS TO RESUME RISING IN THE
TRIBUTARIES BY FRIDAY. IN MOST CASES THIS WOULD RESULT IN
EXTENDING MANY OF THE ADVISORIES. IF WE START TO SEE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING WOULD
INCREASE. AS A RESULT AS THIS IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...IT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ037-043-
050>052-056>059-066-067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ038>040-
044>046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH OVER TO RAIN. THEN A MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 WILL SEE JUST RAIN...BUT
AREAS NORTH OF I-96 WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN COULD RECEIVE UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF ICE TONIGHT.
COLDER AIR AND BRISK WINDS RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT TURNING THE
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. HOWEVER MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SOME TIMING DETAIL TO BRINGING THE
RAIN INTO THE AREA THEN ALLOWING THE WET BULB COOLING TO RESULT IN
FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING FROM
ALMA TO ROCKFORD AND THE DEW POINT IN THOSE AREAS WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. WET BULB TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING...SO AS LONG AS THE HRRR IS CORRECT ABOUT BRINGING THE
AREA OF RAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO ONTO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE 9-10 AM TIME FRAME... WE SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD BE ENOUGH...EVEN AFTER
SUNRISE TO COOL THE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THOSE AREA TO BELOW
FREEZING AND CAUSE THE FORECAST FREEZING RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR.
THAT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MY MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DRY PERIOD FOR THIS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THEN THE NEXT RAIN AREA WOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
WILL NEED TO REDEFINE THIS SYSTEM AS SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMING INTO
PLAY. HIGHEST CONCERN NOW COMES TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-96.
FIRST OFF THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE STEADY PCPN AS THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. AND THE GFS LOOKS QUITE DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF FGEN TYPE PCPN THIS MORNING. WE MAY STILL BE ABLE TO WET
BULB DOWN WITHIN THE SCATTERED POCKETS OF PCPN THIS MORNING...SO
WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINE UP FOR THE SAME AREA...AS EVEN A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE ISSUES. BUT WILL
END THE HEADLINES AT NOON EVERYWHERE AS THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER AND EVEN MORE SCATTERED INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ALONG I-94 WHERE THE COMPLEX OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO SHOULD COME ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. THE FAR NORTHERN CWA....NEAR HIGHWAY 10...MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
ANY GLAZE WILL BE JUST ON METAL SURFACES AND ROAD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
THROUGH THE 30S. AND BECAUSE WE NOW EXPECT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE SECOND BATCH OF MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER PCPN ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BRINGING A LOW LEVEL JET WITH STRONG FORCING. THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FORCING.
BUT OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA AS THIS
SECOND BATCH OF PCPN MOVES IN. THIS IS WHEN EFFICIENT WET BULB
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AS THE PCPN WILL BE HEAVIER AND A
PERIOD HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF
I-96 SHOULD BEGIN TO GLAZE OVER WITH ICE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
SOME AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. THEREFORE WILL PUT MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF I-96 BACK INTO ANOTHER ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM AND RUN IT
THROUGH 8 AM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CWA...SO WILL END THE
ADVISORY FOR OCEANA TO GRATIOT COUNTIES AT 4 AM.
SO BOTTOM LINE...THE MORNING EVENT WAS NOT PANNING OUT NEARLY AS
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED AND THE ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER WE SHOULD
NOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN FOR THE EVENT TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BE RATHER
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO ALMA LINE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. EXPECT STRONG WINDS OF 35-40 MPH
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
AS ONE STORM MOVES OUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS LINED UP AND READY TO MOVE
IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LARGELY LOOKS LIKE A RAIN EVENT BUT
SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THAT SYSTEM IS DONE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OUR SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP THE TRULY COLD AIR WELL NORTH IN CANADA AND THE
REALLY WARM AIR WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO
ENCOURAGE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS.
AS WE HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS... THERE IS ONE
FINAL SOUTHERN STREAM STORM COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
THAT WILL IMPACT MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM IS
ENHANCED BY A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER STORM CROSSING THE DATELINE
DURING TODAY. THAT SYSTEM BUILDS A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER WEST
COAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THAT IN TURN DEEPENS THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WHICH IN TURN HELPS OUR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SLOW DOWN
ENOUGH TO TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE
ECMWF HAS THE BEST CONTINUITY OF LATE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE
UPSTREAM RIDGING HELPING THE SYSTEM... I HAVE TO BELIEVE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES MAKE SENSE. MORE THAN ANYTHING
ELSE THIS WILL BE A WET SYSTEM FOR THIS AREA. I COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES TAP
ENOUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ONCE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA THAT THE RAIN
MAY CHANGE TO WET SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE A RAIN EVENT.
THIS WILL NOT HELP OUR HYDRO ISSUES... THAT IS FOR SURE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS STORM SO QUIET WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THIS STORM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WELL BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS ONE MORE WET SYSTEM MONDAY... THAN A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWS FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
EVEN AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY LARGELY VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AOA 4K FT AND VSBYS AOA
6SM. IT MAY ACTUALLY TAKE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CONDITIONS TO
FALL INTO MVFR AND IFR WHEN THE MAIN SLUG OF RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM COMES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN STORY ON THURSDAY
WILL BE THE STRONG SFC WINDS OUT OF THE EAST GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWERING REGARDING THE ICING THREAT AT MKG/GRR/LAN
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING SINCE CURRENT TEMPERATURES AT
MIDNIGHT ARE AROUND 40 AND PRECIP AMOUNTS/COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRZG RN AND SLEET IS STILL
POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY 11Z-16Z... THE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY HIGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
CRESTS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY DOWN AREA RIVERS. THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. JUST ADVISORIES OUT TO COVER THE
SITUATION. THAT COULD CHANGE TOMORROW OR FRIDAY.
A SURGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GENERAL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE
PREDICTED. THIS WOULD CAUSE LEVELS TO RESUME RISING IN THE
TRIBUTARIES BY FRIDAY. IN MOST CASES THIS WOULD RESULT IN
EXTENDING MANY OF THE ADVISORIES. IF WE START TO SEE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING WOULD
INCREASE. AS A RESULT AS THIS IS NOT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...IT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ037-043-
050>052-056>059-066-067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ038>040-
044>046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-045-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MIZ043-044-051-052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
651 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND WE
DROPPED THE WARNING FOR BAYFIELD/SAWYER/PRICE COUNTIES EARLIER
THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE REMAINING
WARNINGS FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS WELL SOON AS VSBYS HAVE
IMPROVED QUITE A BIT AT KIWD.
FURTHER WEST...CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER OUR MINNESOTA
ZONES...WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS EXPANDING JUST WEST OF OUR CWA. WE
DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER WEST OF A KAIT TO KCDD LINE THIS EVENING.
THE RAP DOES BRING THESE CLOUDS EAST THIS EVENING...THEN HAS THEM
DIMINISHING LATE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT BROUGHT AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS A FOOT AND
A HALF TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT. A GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BAND OF SNOW HAD SET UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD AND PINE COUNTY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE MECHANISM RESPONSIBLE APPEARS TO BE SHUTTING
OFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REMOVE MORE COUNTIES FROM THE
WARNING. WILL HANG ON TO THE WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF NW
WI...SPECIFICALLY BAYFIELD AND SAWYER COUNTY EASTWARD. HEAVY SNOW
RECENTLY AT THE IRONWOOD STATION...WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT
ASHLAND. THINK THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO MORE IN SPOTS FOR THE
EVENING...WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE. THE HRRR ACTUALLY CUTS THINGS OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY
THOUGH THIS EVENING SO THAT WOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS IF THINGS SHUT OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL ALSO HANG ON TO SOME FLURRIES FURTHER
WESTWARD AS SOME DIURNAL CLOUD COVER HAD DEVELOPED AND BROUGHT
SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.
ONCE THE SNOW COMES TO AN END TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE
TEENS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTH.
THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF MELTING ON SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S. ONLY
EXCEPTION IN TERMS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
OVERALL PATTERN THIS PERIOD FEATURES A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED
NEAR FRNTL BDRY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS IT INITIALLY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO CWA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY SO LOW POPS REMAIN IN FCST
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THE OVERALL FORCING IS QUITE WEAK AND DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A DRY SPELL WILL UNFOLD
TUES/WED BEFORE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WED
NIGHT/THUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM 3500-5000FT. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 4000FT WAS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE RAP
DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS MOVING EAST THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHES
THEM LATE EVENING.
WE ADDED SOME FOG TO THE TAFS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR LATE. WE DID NOT LOWER REMAIN AND THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN AREAS LATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 16 39 28 44 / 10 0 20 10
INL 14 45 26 46 / 0 0 20 10
BRD 16 45 29 48 / 0 0 10 20
HYR 12 42 29 47 / 20 0 20 20
ASX 14 40 28 44 / 50 0 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR WIZ003-004.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1247 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Ingredients are coming together for what will likely be a widespread
severe weather event from the Interstate 70 corridor in Missouri and
Illinois...southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The main
threat area includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme
southeastern Kansas.
As of 3 AM...a warm front was located from just north of Nevada to
around Rolla. North of this front, elevated convection has been
ongoing for much of the night from the Interstate 70 corridor,
south towards Clinton and Sedalia. A few of these storms have
produce large hail. South of the front, we have seen isolated to
widely scattered elevated convection try and get going as a broad
low level jet has developed across the Ozarks.
As we get into the predawn and after dawn hours, that warm front
will continue to lift north as strong height falls begin to
overspread the Plains. Mesoscale models continue to indicate some
potential for scattered elevated convection across the Ozarks as
smaller scale enhancement to the broad low level jet work over the
region. Otherwise, the main play for convection will continue to
be up across northern and central Missouri. A low end severe hail
threat will continue with any storms that do develop as lapse
rates remain steep above an elevated mixed layer (EML).
As we get into later this morning and this afternoon, upper level
energy will pivot and emerge across the central High Plains. As this
happens, surface low pressure will track from south-central Kansas
up into northwestern Missouri by 00 UTC. South of this low, a cold
front will overtake a dry line across eastern Kansas with a dry line
then trailing into eastern Oklahoma. That EML will initially keep
the atmosphere capped along these features into early this
afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, those height falls and what
should be at least some partial sunshine should be enough to
effectively lift/erode the cap.
Supercell thunderstorm development is still the preferred convective
mode as wind fields will carry these cells off the front/dry line.
Hail to the size of tennis balls, damaging winds, and tornadoes will
all be threats. There are a few tidbits worth mentioning regarding
the tornado threat. First off, the last several runs of the RAP and
to some point the NAM indicate some sort of dry line bulge coming
out of northeast Oklahoma. If this were to happen, we may see a
localized increase in low level shear which would enhance tornado
potential. Additionally, the threat for tornadoes will tend to
increase very late this afternoon and this evening as a veered low
level jet develops over the region. There will be the potential for
a few longer track tornadoes...especially if the GFS is correct in
bringing stronger mid-level jet energy out into the warm sector.
As we get into this evening, that front will begin to accelerate to
the east as that short wave trough takes on a neutral and then
negative tilt. Models have slowed the forward speed of the front
ever so slightly (which has been a trend since Wednesday). This may
allow discrete supercells to last a bit longer as convection
approaches the Highway 65 corridor. We do believe that these storms
will eventually transition into a quasi-linear convective system
somewhere around or just east of the Highway 65 corridor. Once the
transition takes place, the straight-line wind threat will ramp up
with widespread damaging winds quite possible. There will also
continue to be a tornado threat with any localized surges/bows
within the line. This activity is expected to exit the eastern
Missouri Ozarks somewhere in the 11 PM to 2 AM window.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A blustery day is then on tap for Friday as brisk west-northwest
winds develop. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in
the 50s. High pressure will then settle right over the region Friday
night allowing temperatures to approach, or even fall below the
freezing mark. It also looks like a good setup for frost. Those that
have gotten a jump on the growing season may want to take these
items into consideration.
Global models then continue to bring a broad trough of low pressure
into the region from late this weekend through at least next
Tuesday. Unsettled weather will be the result with several
opportunities for rain showers. Below normal temperatures will
also prevail.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Windy conditions exist out ahead of the approaching cold front.
Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms have developed over
the past couple of hours in the warm sector. Conditions are
generally VFR falling to MVFR near the thunderstorms.
These conditions will continue through the afternoon into the
evening with the approach of the cold front. Stronger storms could
produce large hail and winds in excess of 50 kts.
Front is expected to move through the aerodromes after 02z. As the
front passes...winds will veer to a west to northwest direction
and diminish slightly. In addition...expect MVFR ceilings between
06-14z. After 14z...ceilings should improve to VFR with winds
increasing and becoming gusty from the northwest.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1214 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Robust initially positively tilted upper trough exiting eastern
CO/NM will take on a more negative tilt this afternoon/evening as it
lifts northeastward. Latest surface analysis reveals a rather
complex structure. Convection from earlier today sent an outflow
boundary into southwest MO where new strong/isolated severe
convection has formed. Satellite imagery and surface obs suggest a
subtle warm front lies near a COU to MCI line while a true wind
shift lies farther south extending from an area of low pressure near
CNU eastward through Linn county KS and Bates county MO. Believe
with continued surface heating and pressure falls due to the
approaching upstream trough the warm front will jump to the I-70
corridor this afternoon possibly reaching into northern MO by late
afternoon.
Very moist unstable air from southeast KS and southern MO will
spread into the southern half of the CWA this afternoon. While
regional morning soundings showed a moderate cap in place latest NAM
Bufr soundings indicate it will totally erode around 18z allowing
access to 2500-3000J/kg instability. Latest radar indicates isolated
cells already showing up over east central KS. Believe ongoing
convection just south of the CWA will not interfere with afternoon
development as no additional convection has formed upstream.
Latest HRRR is the preferred convective allowing model as it holds
the warm front a bit further south and had better handle on current
placement of the surface low. Believe convective initiation will take
place along the cold front from extreme east central KS, south of
LWC, south-southwestward along the cold front around or shortly
after 18Z. While the HRRR shows activity may not be initially robust
current thinking is once the cap breaks convection will develop
quite rapidly. 0-6km bulk shear around 50kt will support rotating
updrafts while MUCAPES in excess of 2500J/kg will provide plenty of
energy for robust convection. While model soundings forecast nearly
unidirectional shear after 21Z believe initially there will be
sufficient boundary layer shear to support discrete supercells
through mid afternoon, especially along the warm front and northeast
of the surface low. 17z surface obs show a subtle backing of surface
winds as well as an uptick in speeds over southeast KS. This will
only enhance the convergence along the cold front and support
supercell development. Any veering of the surface winds within the
warm sector past 200 degrees will be less supportive of severe
weather.
Initial storm mode will be discrete supercells for the first few
hours before a more unidirectional shear by late afternoon evolves
into line segments and ultimately into a squall-line as the activity
moves into central MO early this evening. Freezing level between
11-12k ft agl this afternoon. Initial threshold for quarter size
hail will require height of 50dBZ echoes in excess of 28-29k ft.
This will be calibrated later after reports start coming in. All
storm modes are in play with isolated tornadoes most favored along
the warm front and any discrete storms within the warm sector. In
addition, precipitatble water values two standard deviations above
normal east of the cold front will support flash flooding over those
areas which already received excessive rains over the past two days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Short Term (Today through Friday):
The main concern during the short term will be for continued flash
flooding as well as areal and river flooding associated with ongoing
morning convection. This flooding will continue and is expected over
the southern portion of the CWA where storms have been training over
the same area for several hours. There will also be continued
chances for an isolated severe storm through 5AM with the main
threat being marginally large hail. These storms are expected to
weaken and shift east of the area by mid morning as the LLJ which
fueled these storms weakens and become refocused out to the west.
This afternoon`s forecast is contingent how how quickly we can
recover from morning convection. What is evident is that a vigorous
upper level trough will move out of the Four Corners region this
morning into the central Plains. As it does it will take on a
negative tilt. In response to this upper trough move into the
Plains, cyclogenesis will be occurring across eastern Kansas where a
surface cold front will be strengthening. A surface low will develop
in the vicinity of Kansas City or St. Joseph by 18Z with a warm
front extending eastward perhaps right along the Hwy 36 corridor and
a cold front extending south-southwestward to near Chanute. It is
south and east of those boundaries that will be in the warm sector
an ripe for another round of severe weather again providing the
atmosphere can recover. High-res short range models suggest that the
atmosphere does recover by 18Z-20Z and thunderstorms will develop
along or near a Cameron MO. to Blue Mound KS line. Model soundings
are suggesting 1500-2500J/Kg of CAPE for storms to work with
provided they do develop. Plenty of moisture will also be available
for these storms with dewpoints soaring into the upper 50s to mid
60s ahead of the cold front. Low and deep layer shear will also be
very strong. This would suggest that discrete thunderstorms would be
the initial mode of thunderstorms development during the afternoon
with large hail and even an isolated tornado possible. As the cold
front pushes through the CWA in the late afternoon/early evening it
is very possible that thunderstorm will congeal into a squall line
with damaging winds and isolated tornado as the main threats. Also,
there will be the continued threat for flash flooding, areal
flooding and river flooding especially across portions of west
central Missouri and east central Kansas where 3"-5" of
precipitation has fallen over the past 36 hours. Model
soundings/output suggest that the squall line will exit the eastern
CWA by 9PM.
Tonight the upper level trough is then expected to move from eastern
Nebraska into northeastern Iowa. Wrap around moisture will be
possible across northern Missouri and as such have keep slight
chance to chance POPs there. Precipitation will be in the form of
light rain but light snow could mix in early Friday morning.
Otherwise, Friday will start out cloudy and gradually clear during
the day. Conditions will be rather blustery though with strong
northwest winds and highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Long Term (Friday night - Wednesday):
High pressure will move into the area Friday night providing good
radiational cooling with lows falling into the mid 20s to lower 30s.
High pressure will traverse the area Saturday providing poor mixing
however sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 50s
to near 60. An upper level trough will move out of the central
Rockies into the central Plains late Saturday night into Sunday.
This will allow showers to develop over the area on Sunday into
Sunday night. Behind this upper level trough the area will be under
northwest flow aloft. A few weak shortwaves will move through the
area on Monday and Tuesday providing for chance showers through the
period. Surface high pressure will build into the area on Wednesday
and conditions will again dry out. Highs through this period will
range from the lower 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A few light showers will be possible at the terminals through 13Z
with MVFR cigs/vis. Showers will come to an end this morning but
cigs/vis will remain in the MVFR range with cigs perhaps even falling
back into IFR. Winds will be out of the east this morning around
10kts and they will gradually veer to the south by this afternoon. a
cold front will get organized across east Kansas this afternoon and
there is a brief window between 19Z-22Z for thunderstorms...possibly severe...
to affect MCI and MKC. MVFR cigs/vis will continue through the
afternoon. Between 21Z-22Z the cold front will move through the
terminals effectively ending the storm chances and veering winds to
the west around 15kts with gusts between 20-25kts. Expect MVFR cigs
to continue behind the front through the remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ057-105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ037>040-
043>046.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...MJ
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1010 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
...Episode of Severe Thunderstorms Today...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Complex and active weather today as ingredients are favorable for
periods of severe weather. There could be multiple rounds from
this morning into this afternoon and then later this afternoon
into this evening. The cap is weaker across the area then
previously expected and storms are developing across northwestern
Arkansas into far southern Missouri. A boundary is also pushing
southeast through the area across central Missouri into
southwestern Missouri. There is clearing just ahead of this line
across the eastern Ozarks and instability in quickly increasing
this morning. Low level winds shear also remains high across the
area.
Storms are expected to increase in coverage late this morning into
early this afternoon generally across far southern Missouri and
areas generally along and east of Highway 65. Deep layer shear
will support supercells developing. Due to the weaker cap and
instability increasing these storms will be surface based and all
modes of severe weather will be possible, with hail to the size of
tennis balls, damaging straight line winds, and a few tornadoes
will also be possible due to the low level wind shear and surface
based storms.
This activity will be a factor later in the day as a cold front
pushes into northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas during
the mid to late afternoon hours. Storms are expected to develop
along the front during this time over or just west to the far
western portions of the forecast area. Deep layer shear and storm
motions will favor supercells with all modes of severe weather
expected during the mid to late afternoon hours west of Highway
65.
The convection this morning and afternoon will have to be watched
to see how it impacts instability and the severe potential this
afternoon and evening when the cold front pushes across the area.
If the area is worked over too much ahead of the cold front, storms
may weaken or form into a line due to strong forcing along the
front. The overall severe potential would be weaker due to weaker
instability. However, if the sun can break out and instability can
recover behind the earlier storms, the severe potential will increase
as supercells will be possible. Later this evening, storms will
form into a line over the eastern Ozarks with strong winds and
embedded tornadoes being the primary risk. This activity will push
east of the area by the early overnight hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Ingredients are coming together for what will likely be a widespread
severe weather event from the Interstate 70 corridor in Missouri and
Illinois...southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The main
threat area includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme
southeastern Kansas.
As of 3 AM...a warm front was located from just north of Nevada to
around Rolla. North of this front, elevated convection has been
ongoing for much of the night from the Interstate 70 corridor,
south towards Clinton and Sedalia. A few of these storms have
produce large hail. South of the front, we have seen isolated to
widely scattered elevated convection try and get going as a broad
low level jet has developed across the Ozarks.
As we get into the predawn and after dawn hours, that warm front
will continue to lift north as strong height falls begin to
overspread the Plains. Mesoscale models continue to indicate some
potential for scattered elevated convection across the Ozarks as
smaller scale enhancement to the broad low level jet work over the
region. Otherwise, the main play for convection will continue to
be up across northern and central Missouri. A low end severe hail
threat will continue with any storms that do develop as lapse
rates remain steep above an elevated mixed layer (EML).
As we get into later this morning and this afternoon, upper level
energy will pivot and emerge across the central High Plains. As this
happens, surface low pressure will track from south-central Kansas
up into northwestern Missouri by 00 UTC. South of this low, a cold
front will overtake a dry line across eastern Kansas with a dry line
then trailing into eastern Oklahoma. That EML will initially keep
the atmosphere capped along these features into early this
afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, those height falls and what
should be at least some partial sunshine should be enough to
effectively lift/erode the cap.
Supercell thunderstorm development is still the preferred convective
mode as wind fields will carry these cells off the front/dry line.
Hail to the size of tennis balls, damaging winds, and tornadoes will
all be threats. There are a few tidbits worth mentioning regarding
the tornado threat. First off, the last several runs of the RAP and
to some point the NAM indicate some sort of dry line bulge coming
out of northeast Oklahoma. If this were to happen, we may see a
localized increase in low level shear which would enhance tornado
potential. Additionally, the threat for tornadoes will tend to
increase very late this afternoon and this evening as a veered low
level jet develops over the region. There will be the potential for
a few longer track tornadoes...especially if the GFS is correct in
bringing stronger mid-level jet energy out into the warm sector.
As we get into this evening, that front will begin to accelerate to
the east as that short wave trough takes on a neutral and then
negative tilt. Models have slowed the forward speed of the front
ever so slightly (which has been a trend since Wednesday). This may
allow discrete supercells to last a bit longer as convection
approaches the Highway 65 corridor. We do believe that these storms
will eventually transition into a quasi-linear convective system
somewhere around or just east of the Highway 65 corridor. Once the
transition takes place, the straight-line wind threat will ramp up
with widespread damaging winds quite possible. There will also
continue to be a tornado threat with any localized surges/bows
within the line. This activity is expected to exit the eastern
Missouri Ozarks somewhere in the 11 PM to 2 AM window.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A blustery day is then on tap for Friday as brisk west-northwest
winds develop. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in
the 50s. High pressure will then settle right over the region Friday
night allowing temperatures to approach, or even fall below the
freezing mark. It also looks like a good setup for frost. Those that
have gotten a jump on the growing season may want to take these
items into consideration.
Global models then continue to bring a broad trough of low pressure
into the region from late this weekend through at least next
Tuesday. Unsettled weather will be the result with several
opportunities for rain showers. Below normal temperatures will
also prevail.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Windy conditions will occur through much of the day today at the
terminals. Later this afternoon, severe thunderstorms are expected
to from west of the terminal sites, and move into the region
during the late afternoon through mid to late evening hours. Once
these storms pass, winds will become westerly and then
northwesterly overnight.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
610 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
...Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Ingredients are coming together for what will likely be a widespread
severe weather event from the Interstate 70 corridor in Missouri and
Illinois...southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The main
threat area includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme
southeastern Kansas.
As of 3 AM...a warm front was located from just north of Nevada to
around Rolla. North of this front, elevated convection has been
ongoing for much of the night from the Interstate 70 corridor,
south towards Clinton and Sedalia. A few of these storms have
produce large hail. South of the front, we have seen isolated to
widely scattered elevated convection try and get going as a broad
low level jet has developed across the Ozarks.
As we get into the predawn and after dawn hours, that warm front
will continue to lift north as strong height falls begin to
overspread the Plains. Mesoscale models continue to indicate some
potential for scattered elevated convection across the Ozarks as
smaller scale enhancement to the broad low level jet work over the
region. Otherwise, the main play for convection will continue to
be up across northern and central Missouri. A low end severe hail
threat will continue with any storms that do develop as lapse
rates remain steep above an elevated mixed layer (EML).
As we get into later this morning and this afternoon, upper level
energy will pivot and emerge across the central High Plains. As this
happens, surface low pressure will track from south-central Kansas
up into northwestern Missouri by 00 UTC. South of this low, a cold
front will overtake a dry line across eastern Kansas with a dry line
then trailing into eastern Oklahoma. That EML will initially keep
the atmosphere capped along these features into early this
afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, those height falls and what
should be at least some partial sunshine should be enough to
effectively lift/erode the cap.
Supercell thunderstorm development is still the preferred convective
mode as wind fields will carry these cells off the front/dry line.
Hail to the size of tennis balls, damaging winds, and tornadoes will
all be threats. There are a few tidbits worth mentioning regarding
the tornado threat. First off, the last several runs of the RAP and
to some point the NAM indicate some sort of dry line bulge coming
out of northeast Oklahoma. If this were to happen, we may see a
localized increase in low level shear which would enhance tornado
potential. Additionally, the threat for tornadoes will tend to
increase very late this afternoon and this evening as a veered low
level jet develops over the region. There will be the potential for
a few longer track tornadoes...especially if the GFS is correct in
bringing stronger mid-level jet energy out into the warm sector.
As we get into this evening, that front will begin to accelerate to
the east as that short wave trough takes on a neutral and then
negative tilt. Models have slowed the forward speed of the front
ever so slightly (which has been a trend since Wednesday). This may
allow discrete supercells to last a bit longer as convection
approaches the Highway 65 corridor. We do believe that these storms
will eventually transition into a quasi-linear convective system
somewhere around or just east of the Highway 65 corridor. Once the
transition takes place, the straight-line wind threat will ramp up
with widespread damaging winds quite possible. There will also
continue to be a tornado threat with any localized surges/bows
within the line. This activity is expected to exit the eastern
Missouri Ozarks somewhere in the 11 PM to 2 AM window.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A blustery day is then on tap for Friday as brisk west-northwest
winds develop. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in
the 50s. High pressure will then settle right over the region Friday
night allowing temperatures to approach, or even fall below the
freezing mark. It also looks like a good setup for frost. Those that
have gotten a jump on the growing season may want to take these
items into consideration.
Global models then continue to bring a broad trough of low pressure
into the region from late this weekend through at least next
Tuesday. Unsettled weather will be the result with several
opportunities for rain showers. Below normal temperatures will
also prevail.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Windy conditions will occur through much of the day today at the
terminals. Later this afternoon, severe thunderstorms are expected
to from west of the terminal sites, and move into the region
during the late afternoon through mid to late evening hours. Once
these storms pass, winds will become westerly and then
northwesterly overnight.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
...Episode of Severe Thunderstorms Later This Afternoon and This
Evening...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
Ingredients are coming together for what will likely be a widespread
severe weather event from the Interstate 70 corridor in Missouri and
Illinois...southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The main
threat area includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme
southeastern Kansas.
As of 3 AM...a warm front was located from just north of Nevada to
around Rolla. North of this front, elevated convection has been
ongoing for much of the night from the Interstate 70 corridor,
south towards Clinton and Sedalia. A few of these storms have
produce large hail. South of the front, we have seen isolated to
widely scattered elevated convection try and get going as a broad
low level jet has developed across the Ozarks.
As we get into the predawn and after dawn hours, that warm front
will continue to lift north as strong height falls begin to
overspread the Plains. Mesoscale models continue to indicate some
potential for scattered elevated convection across the Ozarks as
smaller scale enhancement to the broad low level jet work over the
region. Otherwise, the main play for convection will continue to
be up across northern and central Missouri. A low end severe hail
threat will continue with any storms that do develop as lapse
rates remain steep above an elevated mixed layer (EML).
As we get into later this morning and this afternoon, upper level
energy will pivot and emerge across the central High Plains. As this
happens, surface low pressure will track from south-central Kansas
up into northwestern Missouri by 00 UTC. South of this low, a cold
front will overtake a dry line across eastern Kansas with a dry line
then trailing into eastern Oklahoma. That EML will initially keep
the atmosphere capped along these features into early this
afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, those height falls and what
should be at least some partial sunshine should be enough to
effectively lift/erode the cap.
Supercell thunderstorm development is still the preferred convective
mode as wind fields will carry these cells off the front/dry line.
Hail to the size of tennis balls, damaging winds, and tornadoes will
all be threats. There are a few tidbits worth mentioning regarding
the tornado threat. First off, the last several runs of the RAP and
to some point the NAM indicate some sort of dry line bulge coming
out of northeast Oklahoma. If this were to happen, we may see a
localized increase in low level shear which would enhance tornado
potential. Additionally, the threat for tornadoes will tend to
increase very late this afternoon and this evening as a veered low
level jet develops over the region. There will be the potential for
a few longer track tornadoes...especially if the GFS is correct in
bringing stronger mid-level jet energy out into the warm sector.
As we get into this evening, that front will begin to accelerate to
the east as that short wave trough takes on a neutral and then
negative tilt. Models have slowed the forward speed of the front
ever so slightly (which has been a trend since Wednesday). This may
allow discrete supercells to last a bit longer as convection
approaches the Highway 65 corridor. We do believe that these storms
will eventually transition into a quasi-linear convective system
somewhere around or just east of the Highway 65 corridor. Once the
transition takes place, the straight-line wind threat will ramp up
with widespread damaging winds quite possible. There will also
continue to be a tornado threat with any localized surges/bows
within the line. This activity is expected to exit the eastern
Missouri Ozarks somewhere in the 11 PM to 2 AM window.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A blustery day is then on tap for Friday as brisk west-northwest
winds develop. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in
the 50s. High pressure will then settle right over the region Friday
night allowing temperatures to approach, or even fall below the
freezing mark. It also looks like a good setup for frost. Those that
have gotten a jump on the growing season may want to take these
items into consideration.
Global models then continue to bring a broad trough of low pressure
into the region from late this weekend through at least next
Tuesday. Unsettled weather will be the result with several
opportunities for rain showers. Below normal temperatures will
also prevail.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
Pilots can expect an increasing risk for thunderstorms mainly to
the north of the terminal sites tonight and across the entire
region by Thursday afternoon and evening.
Areas of MVFR ceilings will impact the area particularly north of
a warm front draped across the Ozarks and near any storms.
Visibilities will also be lowered in areas of heavy rainfall.
Low level wind shear will develop late tonight into early
Thursday morning.
Severe storms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening as a
cold front moves across the region.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1127 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
04Z surface observations at Nevada and Clinton MO show that the warm
front has lifted into the far southern CWA, with temperatures now in
the 60s and dewpoints in the upper 50s. An axis of discrete
thunderstorms continues just north of this boundary, extending from
El Dorado KS northeast to Warrensburg. These storms have exhibited
supercellular structures at times, with mid level rotation
contributing to brief period of hail up to golf ball size. Additional
thunderstorms continue to develop north and west up to around I-70, a
large region of moderate isentropic ascent continues along an
ascending broad 40-50 knot low level jet.
Latest mesoanalysis and RAP forecasts show conflicting variables for
severe weather overnight. MUCAPE values currently around 1000 J/kg
are expected to gradually increase across wrn MO/ern KS to nearly
2000 J/kg by 12Z. However, cloud bearing shear is expected to
diminish considerably prior to the arrival of large scale ascent tied
to the upper trough after 12Z. With shear being the larger
contributor owing to unseasonably high freezing levels, it would
seem to reason that the threat for hail (at least much larger than
1") will steadily wane over the next couple hours, owing to fewer
supercell structures and the shear number of thunderstorms expected.
That being said, storms closer to better near-surface based inflow
air over the far southern CWA (e.g. Linn, Bates, Henry counties) will
need to be watched closely for storm- scale rotation.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, the primary focus will
shift to the increasing likelihood for excessive rainfall. An inch of
rain fell this morning over the southern KC metro and points south
and east. The low level jet orientation running increasingly parallel
to the slow moving warm front suggests that training storms are
likely to occur over these same areas once again overnight.
Precipitable water values are now well over an inch and increasing
quickly. Dual-pol radar analysis continues to show very high KDP
values, indicative of large drop sizes and essentially a warm rain
process ongoing above the surface cold pool. That said, rainfall
rates of 2"/hr are likely within 50+ dBZ echos, and localized total
amounts of 3-5" are possible over the southern CWA. This is not to
diminish the heavy rainfall potential up to I-70 and perhaps St.
Joseph-Chillicothe, but those areas need a lot more rainfall.
Bookbinder
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
As of early afternoon, the majority of showers have exited the
forecast area, with only isolated showers or light drizzle present.
Visible satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover across the
CWA. Retreating southern periphery of clouds have been noted north
of the warm front over SE KS into SW MO as of the past couple hours.
The warm front, analyzed from surface observations, radar fine
line, and cumulus field, currently stretches from Ponca City, OK to
Parsons, KS to just south of Springfield, MO. Eastern extent of this
boundary has experienced reinforced cold air from earlier and
ongoing weak convection, and even a slight southward jog of the
boundary near SGF.
Forecast concerns first hinge on potential for convection this
evening and overnight. Convective-resolving models (HRRR, EAX 4-km
WRF, LSX 12-km WRF, NAM NCEP) have shown similar outputs to
convective behavior and warm frontal position during the next 6-12
hours. Models have been very persistent in first developing
convection along the warm front in SE KS between 22-01Z. There
remains some uncertainty to how far north the warm front will reach
this evening. High-resolution model guidance places the boundary
within the southern two-tiers of counties in the CWA (Mound City to
Clinton) by early evening, but some of this northern extent may be
limited by the recent reinforcement of cooler air from showers just
north of the boundary along I-44. Nevertheless, expect the boundary
to be in/just south of the CWA by early/mid evening. Additional
convection is expected to develop along the warm front this evening,
and with a favorable environment for well-organized convection
including supercells, with large hail to golf ball-sized and damaging
wind gusts possible with these storms that remain along and just
south of the warm front. In addition, with the enhanced low-level
shear near/along the boundary, the potential for tornadoes will also
be possible. To the north of the boundary, additional convection will
develop between 02-05Z over much of the forecast area. Some of these
storms, especially south of Highway 36, will have a favorable
environment with ample elevated instability and wind shear to support
storms capable of producing severe hail. The highest probability of
these elevated storms producing severe weather will be between 02-08Z
in the CWA. Will also have to monitor any additional convection along
the warm front as it lifts northward overnight and whether the lowest
layer of the atmosphere cools and decouples. Lastly, areas along and
south of Interstate 70 received the bulk of rain this morning, with
precipitation totals exceeding one inch in many areas. With
additional moderate to heavy rainfall expected in some of these
already saturated areas tonight and Thursday, will issue a flash
flood watch for areas along Interstate 70 to account for the
potential for flash flooding.
A brief lull in the activity is anticipated during the mid morning
hours as convection moves out of the CWA. A surface low and an
accompanying cold front will move through the forecast area during
the afternoon hours. Assuming the atmosphere can recover from
earlier convection, strong dynamics/forcing should lead to another
round of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Storm mode remains in
question depending on the available instability and strong forcing,
but a brief period of discrete convection followed by an evolution
into a squall line is currently anticipated. Severe weather will be
possible, especially across the southeastern half of the CWA.
Additional details will be resolved following the convective
evolution from tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
As the departing surface low continues to wrap up and lifts off to
the northeast, unseasonably cold air will filter southward into the
forecast area on Friday into Friday night. Some of the wrap-around
precipitation may brush the northern edge of the forecast area,
possibly falling in the form of light snow across our northern tier
of counties, and a rain/snow mix a little further to the south. No
snow accumulation is expected, and very little precipitation is
possible. Highs on Friday will reach only into the 40s to perhaps
around 50 degrees, and below freezing temperatures are expected on
Friday night.
Another deepening longwave trough will head eastward across the
western CONUS during the latter half of the weekend, entrenching
the forecast area in west to southwest flow once again. However; a
lingering surface boundary across the southeastern U.S. and the
southern extent of the upper trough should keep any significant
precipitation south of the forecast area. On and off chances for
light rain showers are present Sunday through Tuesday, then cooler
and drier northwest flow will filter into the area again by midweek
as the upper trough pushes eastward. High temperatures this weekend
will be tempered by cloud cover and possible rain showers, and
should settle near or slightly below normal. By middle next week,
highs are more likely to remain a touch below normal as northwest
flow takes over.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
Watching closely thunderstorms developing near CNU as they track
northeast into western MO. Latest short term guidance suggests these
should stay mainly south of the KC area for several
hours...eventually reaching IXD/OJC late this evening, toward MCI
near or shortly after midnight and into the STJ-IRK corridor before
sunrise. Before storms move in, widespread low clouds will remain in
place near and north of the MO River and may even lower a bit after
dark bringing ceiling close to airfield minimums for some airports.
Additional storms are possible Thurs morning before a front moves
through during the afternoon but timing this activity is difficult.
Therefore kept a vague VCTS through this period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR KSZ057-105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday evening FOR MOZ037>040-
043>046.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Bookbinder
SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
...A COMPLEX SITUATION IS UNFOLDING WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED DECENT
PRECIP BUT HOW IT FALLS REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN EVEN AS IT`S ON
THE DOORSTEP...
ALOFT: A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF WAS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO NEB/KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND HEADS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW
TOMORROW...HERE ON THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SURFACE: THIS IS THE FIRST SPRING STORM OF THE SEASON...THOUGH
ITS IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED FOR OUR FCST AREA. LOW PRES WAS
OVER ERN KS...SITUATED ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONT. THE FCST AREA WAS
IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS LOW WILL CROSS INTO MO AND BE OVER LAKE
MI BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...MODESTLY DEEPENING OVER THE JOURNEY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SPILL S DOWN THE PLAINS AND INCREASE ITS
INFLUENCE HERE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
NOW: LIFT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING VIA BLOSSOMING RETURNS ON
RADAR. THE TROF IS SHIFTING E AND THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER KANSAS
CITY. CLOUD TOPS ARE MODESTLY COOLING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
EDGES E.
THE HI-RES RAP HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON THE REFLECTIVITY IN THIS
BAND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
4PM- 5PM.
THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION WITH P-TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE WILL
IS SUB-FRZG W OF THE TROF AXIS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER /BL/
IS ABOVE FRZG...THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR AROUND TO ADVECT
IN ...AND PCPN IS NOT FALLING HEAVY ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO OVERCOME
THE WARM BL. THE PCPN INTENSITY WILL DRIVE THE P-TYPE AND AMTS.
THIS MAKES THE FCST DIFFICULT AND PUTS INTO JEOPARDY THE
OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN-SNOW AND
SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMTS.
IF PCPN DOES NOT COME DOWN HEAVILY ENOUGH...WHEN/IF THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS...IT WILL MELT ON CONTACT.
FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOW THRU MIDNIGHT.
HERE IS OUR CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON:
INTERMITTENT DRZL WITH EMBEDDED SHWRS/SLEET OVER S-CNTRL NEB WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A FAIRLY STEADY R AND EVENTUALLY TO S AS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN BAND HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL HOLD STEADY.
TONIGHT: EXPECT BY 7 PM THAT WHATEVER RAIN IS FALLING SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE LOSE SOLAR INPUT ON SFC TEMPS. SNOW WILL END
FROM W- E. IT IS WITH RELUCTANCE THAT I AM KEEPING THE
ADVISORY...MAINLY DUE TO THE VERY LOW POTENTIAL THAT THIS PCPN
COULD OVER-PRODUCE. BE ADVISED THAT SNOWFALL AMTS COULD END UP
BELOW AN INCH AND SOME AREAS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT ACCUMULATE AT
ALL. THE SNOW E OF HWY 81 WILL BE DONE BY 3AM. DECREASING CLOUDS
WILL FOLLOW.
FCST SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO NO MORE THAN 1 INCH AND
I HOPE THIS IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF HAND GIVEN THAT THE
STRONGEST PRES RISES WILL OCCUR S OF I-70. GUSTS COULD REACH 40
MPH AT TIMES...E OF HWY 281 OVER S-CNTRL NEB.
POSSIBLE FCST SHORT-COMINGS FOR NUMEROUS. THE SNOW HAS BEEN
MODERATE AT TIMES TODAY OVER NW KS /CBK/ AND EVEN BRIEFLY AT MCK.
IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE TRANSIENT HEAVIER SNOW BANDS COULD
SWING THRU N- CNTRL KS.
TOMORROW: SUNNY AND TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. USED BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND OF MODEL 2M TEMPS AND THE PREVIOUS GID FCST. THIS
RAISED HIGHS 3-4.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING TO NEARLY 700 MB. SO DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWERED BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES...AND
THERE MAY BE MORE DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL INTO THE UPR TEENS.
WINDS WILL BE BRZY IN THE MORNING...GUSTING 30-35 MPH E OF HWY
281. BUT WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
MAIN CONCERNS WILL FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SAT NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLUCTUATE
DURING THE PERIOD IN QUESTION.
STARTING OFF FRIDAY EVENING LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR REGION SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR
REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUT THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN ROCKIES AT THAT TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH LEE TROUGHING
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE
WINDS SWITCHING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. END UP WITH A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THUS IT WILL BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY
SIDE ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY
BROAD...SLOW MOVING TROUGH WITH THE 500 MB AXIS OVER THE CENTER OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z MON. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE TROUGH...OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES ROTATE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES POINT
TO ALL LIQUID. ALSO...INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH FORECAST MU-CAPES BELOW 100 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS BETTER JUST TO
THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE TRANSITION DAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE EAST. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE WARMER AIR TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION...BUT WED AND THURSDAY SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A NICE WARMUP WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE 70S WHICH
WOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z GRI TAF THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THIS AFTERNOON: IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH MVFR AND OCCASIONAL VFR
VSBYS IN INTERMITTENT DRZL AND SCT SHWRS. AFTER 21Z ANY RAIN/DRZL
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO -SN. N WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AND INCREASE
...GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: IFR -SN ENDS BY MID EVENING. THEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 30 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
FRI MORNING: VFR SKC. NNW WINDS GUST TO NEAR 27 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>063-072>075-082>084.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1248 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
WINTER WX ADVISORY CONTINUES AS POSTED FROM 403 AM.
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST. THINGS ARE EVOLVING AS
EXPECTED. IT IS NOW APPARENTLY SNOWING AT ORD. THE NDOR CAMERA
OVER SW CUSTER COUNTY APPEARS TO SHOW SKIFFS OF SNOW ON GRASSY
AREAS. AM GROWING CONCERNED THAT ACCUMS WILL BE HARD TO COMEBY
WITHIN THE ADVISORY...GIVEN MILD GROUND TEMPS AND ABOVE FRZG
BOUNDARY LAYER. MCCOOK IS DOWN TO 3/4 SM VISIBILITY IN -SN. THAT`S
THE KIND OF INTENSITY WE WILL NEED TO GET ANY MINOR ACCUMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
EXAMINING 12Z LBF/ABR/OAX SOUNDINGS AND 11Z RAP SOUNDINGS...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS READY TO PRODUCE SNOW. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUB-FRZG
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND W. WE ARE
JUST WAITING FOR LIFT TO DEVELOP AND THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER TO
SATURATE.
THE UEX 88D SHOWS CLOUD TOPS AROUND 11K FT...AND THE BOTTOM OF THE
SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS FCST AROUND 12K FT. SO IT`S JUST A WAITING
GAME.
THE 13Z RAP SUGGESTS SATURATION FIRST OCCURS FROM GOTHENBURG-COZAD
UP TO ORD 12PM-1PM...AND THEN E INTO THE TRI-CITIES 4PM-5PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE 6 HR QPF ENDING AT 12Z FROM THE 00Z EC/NAM AND 03Z SREF MEAN
DID NOT PERFORM WELL. THEY WERE TOO HEAVY OVER THE SE QUARTER OF
NEB. WE MAY USE THIS TO GUIDE OUR FCST EFFORTS TODAY. I ALREADY
LIKE THE LOOK OF THE 11Z RAP AND 06Z GFS FOR HOW I BELIEVE THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.
AS OF NOW...THE 700 MB TROF IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND IS UPSTREAM FROM THE PANHANDLE DOWN INTO
CNTRL CO.
AN INITIAL LOOK SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE WILL HAPPEN THRU MIDDAY.
EXPECT PATCHY DRZL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF SHWR. THE MAIN SHOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE W AND THAT`S HOW WE WILL PLAY IT IN THE
FCST. THAT MEANS WE MAY NEED TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING.
MORE LATER...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH LIFT AIDED ALONG THE NOSE OF A SRLY LLJ
JET AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION...BEEN SEEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER PASS THROUGH. THE BRUNT OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS AFFECTED ERN KS OVERNIGHT...AND JUST A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SITS NEAR THE OK/TX/NM BORDER AREA...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/NE THROUGH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF KS.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES AS OF 4 AM.
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS...AND WANT TO
STATE THAT DUE TO LINGERING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN HOW TODAY PLAYS OUT IS NOT HIGH.
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES...TAKING A MORE NERLY TURN AS IT
EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE GENERAL TRACK TAKES IT RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN
THE MID LEVELS...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH WHETHER IT
STAYS THAT WAY OR FILLS/BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND AT WHAT
LEVELS /700 OR 500 MB/. THE GFS IS ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SIDE...STRONGER AND KEEPING BOTH LEVELS CLOSED...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF WEAKENED...SHOWING A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE 700MB LOW
/ALREADY IN MN BY 00Z COMPARED TO OVER SC AND ERN NEB SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ AND AN OPEN 500MB WAVE. THE NAM/GEM ARE IN BETWEEN BUT CLOSER
TO THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD THE
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS...THE GFS LEADING THE
WAY DUE TO ITS STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS A
BLEND. IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS BACKING OFF SOME ON
QPF...THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT FROM THE HI RES HRRR AND RAP WITH
THERE LIKELY BEING A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN THE
SHOWERS SLIDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...LEAVING BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE...AND KEPT THAT MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST.
MODEL DATA AND SPC MESO PAGE SHOW THAT SUB FREEZING 850MB TEMPS ARE
IN PLACE ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FEEL THAT ONCE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION FINALLY STARTS WORKING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...IT
WILL FALL AS SNOW...EVEN WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID 30S.
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO ALLOW FOR
A RA/SN MIX OR STRAIGHT RA...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. EXPECTING A FULL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS SWITCHED OVER TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...NOT CONFIDENT THAT ANYONE WOULD GET 6+ INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MAIN
BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...IN CASE IT ENDS UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...BACKED OFF THE
START TIME OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO MID
MORNING...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE EAST STILL STARTING AT 18Z. LATEST
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE END TIME BY
3 HRS TO 09Z.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT
HIT THE CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ESP IN THE
HEAVIER BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE COULD BRING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF A FEW HRS WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO NEAR ONE HALF OF
A MILE AND PRESENT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WITH THE CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN PLACE
AND PRECIP CHANCES MOVING IN...NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT
OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR PCPN AND PERIODS OF WAA/CAA.
HEIGHTS RISE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP W/E OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
EAST FM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH EXPECTED. IN THE
MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEAR 60F.
THE STEADY SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH SFC
DPS PROGGED TO RISE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE
LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN WAA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHCS FOR
PCPN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THE H7 WAVE MAY
CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
MEANDER EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND REORGANIZE/DEEPEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS
ACROSS PCPN CHC CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN FOR EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK A TROUGHY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
SUBTLE WAVES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THRU. ALTHOUGH IT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY WET...HIT OR MISS CHCS FOR PCPN ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AXIS EXPAND EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARMER AIR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THE HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z GRI TAF THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THIS AFTERNOON: IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH MVFR AND OCCASIONAL VFR
VSBYS IN INTERMITTENT DRZL AND SCT SHWRS. AFTER 21Z ANY RAIN/DRZL
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO -SN. N WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AND INCREASE
...GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
TONIGHT: IFR -SN ENDS BY MID EVENING. THEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 30 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
FRI MORNING: VFR SKC. NNW WINDS GUST TO NEAR 27 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-060-061-072-073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-
062-063-074-075-082>084.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
931 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
EXAMINING 12Z LBF/ABR/OAX SOUNDINGS AND 11Z RAP SOUNDINGS...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS READY TO PRODUCE SNOW. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUB-FRZG
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND W. WE ARE
JUST WAITING FOR LIFT TO DEVELOP AND THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER TO
SATURATE.
THE UEX 88D SHOWS CLOUD TOPS AROUND 11K FT...AND THE BOTTOM OF THE
SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS FCST AROUND 12K FT. SO IT`S JUST A WAITING
GAME.
THE 13Z RAP SUGGESTS SATURATION FIRST OCCURS FROM GOTHENBURG-COZAD
UP TO ORD 12PM-1PM...AND THEN E INTO THE TRI-CITIES 4PM-5PM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE 6 HR QPF ENDING AT 12Z FROM THE 00Z EC/NAM AND 03Z SREF MEAN
DID NOT PERFORM WELL. THEY WERE TOO HEAVY OVER THE SE QUARTER OF
NEB. WE MAY USE THIS TO GUIDE OUR FCST EFFORTS TODAY. I ALREADY
LIKE THE LOOK OF THE 11Z RAP AND 06Z GFS FOR HOW I BELIEVE THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.
AS OF NOW...THE 700 MB TROF IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND IS UPSTREAM FROM THE PANHANDLE DOWN INTO
CNTRL CO.
AN INITIAL LOOK SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE WILL HAPPEN THRU MIDDAY.
EXPECT PATCHY DRZL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF SHWR. THE MAIN SHOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE W AND THAT`S HOW WE WILL PLAY IT IN THE
FCST. THAT MEANS WE MAY NEED TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING.
MORE LATER...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH LIFT AIDED ALONG THE NOSE OF A SRLY LLJ
JET AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION...BEEN SEEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER PASS THROUGH. THE BRUNT OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS AFFECTED ERN KS OVERNIGHT...AND JUST A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SITS NEAR THE OK/TX/NM BORDER AREA...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/NE THROUGH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF KS.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES AS OF 4 AM.
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS...AND WANT TO
STATE THAT DUE TO LINGERING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN HOW TODAY PLAYS OUT IS NOT HIGH.
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES...TAKING A MORE NERLY TURN AS IT
EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE GENERAL TRACK TAKES IT RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN
THE MID LEVELS...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH WHETHER IT
STAYS THAT WAY OR FILLS/BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND AT WHAT
LEVELS /700 OR 500 MB/. THE GFS IS ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SIDE...STRONGER AND KEEPING BOTH LEVELS CLOSED...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF WEAKENED...SHOWING A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE 700MB LOW
/ALREADY IN MN BY 00Z COMPARED TO OVER SC AND ERN NEB SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ AND AN OPEN 500MB WAVE. THE NAM/GEM ARE IN BETWEEN BUT CLOSER
TO THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD THE
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS...THE GFS LEADING THE
WAY DUE TO ITS STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS A
BLEND. IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS BACKING OFF SOME ON
QPF...THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT FROM THE HI RES HRRR AND RAP WITH
THERE LIKELY BEING A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN THE
SHOWERS SLIDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...LEAVING BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE...AND KEPT THAT MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST.
MODEL DATA AND SPC MESO PAGE SHOW THAT SUB FREEZING 850MB TEMPS ARE
IN PLACE ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FEEL THAT ONCE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION FINALLY STARTS WORKING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...IT
WILL FALL AS SNOW...EVEN WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID 30S.
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO ALLOW FOR
A RA/SN MIX OR STRAIGHT RA...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. EXPECTING A FULL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS SWITCHED OVER TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...NOT CONFIDENT THAT ANYONE WOULD GET 6+ INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MAIN
BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...IN CASE IT ENDS UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...BACKED OFF THE
START TIME OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO MID
MORNING...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE EAST STILL STARTING AT 18Z. LATEST
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE END TIME BY
3 HRS TO 09Z.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT
HIT THE CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ESP IN THE
HEAVIER BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE COULD BRING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF A FEW HRS WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO NEAR ONE HALF OF
A MILE AND PRESENT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WITH THE CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN PLACE
AND PRECIP CHANCES MOVING IN...NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT
OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR PCPN AND PERIODS OF WAA/CAA.
HEIGHTS RISE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP W/E OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
EAST FM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH EXPECTED. IN THE
MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEAR 60F.
THE STEADY SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH SFC
DPS PROGGED TO RISE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE
LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN WAA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHCS FOR
PCPN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THE H7 WAVE MAY
CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
MEANDER EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND REORGANIZE/DEEPEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS
ACROSS PCPN CHC CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN FOR EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK A TROUGHY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
SUBTLE WAVES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THRU. ALTHOUGH IT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY WET...HIT OR MISS CHCS FOR PCPN ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AXIS EXPAND EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARMER AIR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THE HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE TERMINAL AREA...ESP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AM STAYING ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF
THINGS AT THIS POINT...REALIZE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS
THE DAY PASSES...AND HAVE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS DONT LOOK TO NOTABLY IMPROVE UNTIL CLOSER
TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-060-061-072-073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-062-063-074-075-082>084.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
808 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE 6 HR QPF ENDING AT 12Z FROM THE 00Z EC/NAM AND 03Z SREF MEAN
DID NOT PERFORM WELL. THEY WERE TOO HEAVY OVER THE SE QUARTER OF
NEB. WE MAY USE THIS TO GUIDE OUR FCST EFFORTS TODAY. I ALREADY
LIKE THE LOOK OF THE 11Z RAP AND 06Z GFS FOR HOW I BELIEVE THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY.
AS OF NOW...THE 700 MB TROF IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND THE
DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND IS UPSTREAM FROM THE PANHANDLE DOWN INTO
CNTRL CO.
AN INITIAL LOOK SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE WILL HAPPEN THRU MIDDAY.
EXPECT PATCHY DRZL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF SHWR. THE MAIN SHOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE W AND THAT`S HOW WE WILL PLAY IT IN THE
FCST. THAT MEANS WE MAY NEED TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING.
MORE LATER...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH LIFT AIDED ALONG THE NOSE OF A SRLY LLJ
JET AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION...BEEN SEEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER PASS THROUGH. THE BRUNT OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS AFFECTED ERN KS OVERNIGHT...AND JUST A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SITS NEAR THE OK/TX/NM BORDER AREA...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/NE THROUGH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF KS.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES AS OF 4 AM.
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS...AND WANT TO
STATE THAT DUE TO LINGERING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN HOW TODAY PLAYS OUT IS NOT HIGH.
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES...TAKING A MORE NERLY TURN AS IT
EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE GENERAL TRACK TAKES IT RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN
THE MID LEVELS...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH WHETHER IT
STAYS THAT WAY OR FILLS/BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND AT WHAT
LEVELS /700 OR 500 MB/. THE GFS IS ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SIDE...STRONGER AND KEEPING BOTH LEVELS CLOSED...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF WEAKENED...SHOWING A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE 700MB LOW
/ALREADY IN MN BY 00Z COMPARED TO OVER SC AND ERN NEB SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ AND AN OPEN 500MB WAVE. THE NAM/GEM ARE IN BETWEEN BUT CLOSER
TO THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD THE
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS...THE GFS LEADING THE
WAY DUE TO ITS STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS A
BLEND. IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS BACKING OFF SOME ON
QPF...THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT FROM THE HI RES HRRR AND RAP WITH
THERE LIKELY BEING A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN THE
SHOWERS SLIDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...LEAVING BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE...AND KEPT THAT MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST.
MODEL DATA AND SPC MESO PAGE SHOW THAT SUB FREEZING 850MB TEMPS ARE
IN PLACE ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FEEL THAT ONCE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION FINALLY STARTS WORKING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...IT
WILL FALL AS SNOW...EVEN WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID 30S.
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO ALLOW FOR
A RA/SN MIX OR STRAIGHT RA...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. EXPECTING A FULL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS SWITCHED OVER TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...NOT CONFIDENT THAT ANYONE WOULD GET 6+ INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MAIN
BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...IN CASE IT ENDS UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...BACKED OFF THE
START TIME OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO MID
MORNING...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE EAST STILL STARTING AT 18Z. LATEST
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE END TIME BY
3 HRS TO 09Z.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT
HIT THE CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ESP IN THE
HEAVIER BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE COULD BRING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF A FEW HRS WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO NEAR ONE HALF OF
A MILE AND PRESENT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WITH THE CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN PLACE
AND PRECIP CHANCES MOVING IN...NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT
OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR PCPN AND PERIODS OF WAA/CAA.
HEIGHTS RISE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP W/E OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
EAST FM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH EXPECTED. IN THE
MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEAR 60F.
THE STEADY SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH SFC
DPS PROGGED TO RISE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE
LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN WAA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHCS FOR
PCPN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THE H7 WAVE MAY
CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
MEANDER EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND REORGANIZE/DEEPEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS
ACROSS PCPN CHC CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN FOR EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK A TROUGHY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
SUBTLE WAVES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THRU. ALTHOUGH IT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY WET...HIT OR MISS CHCS FOR PCPN ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AXIS EXPAND EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARMER AIR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THE HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE TERMINAL AREA...ESP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AM STAYING ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF
THINGS AT THIS POINT...REALIZE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS
THE DAY PASSES...AND HAVE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS DONT LOOK TO NOTABLY IMPROVE UNTIL CLOSER
TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-060-061-072-073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-062-063-074-075-082>084.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
550 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH LIFT AIDED ALONG THE NOSE OF A SRLY LLJ
JET AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION...BEEN SEEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER PASS THROUGH. THE BRUNT OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS AFFECTED ERN KS OVERNIGHT...AND JUST A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SITS NEAR THE OK/TX/NM BORDER AREA...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/NE THROUGH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF KS.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES AS OF 4 AM.
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS...AND WANT TO
STATE THAT DUE TO LINGERING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN HOW TODAY PLAYS OUT IS NOT HIGH.
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES...TAKING A MORE NERLY TURN AS IT
EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE GENERAL TRACK TAKES IT RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN
THE MID LEVELS...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH WHETHER IT
STAYS THAT WAY OR FILLS/BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND AT WHAT
LEVELS /700 OR 500 MB/. THE GFS IS ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SIDE...STRONGER AND KEEPING BOTH LEVELS CLOSED...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF WEAKENED...SHOWING A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE 700MB LOW
/ALREADY IN MN BY 00Z COMPARED TO OVER SC AND ERN NEB SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ AND AN OPEN 500MB WAVE. THE NAM/GEM ARE IN BETWEEN BUT CLOSER
TO THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD THE
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS...THE GFS LEADING THE
WAY DUE TO ITS STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS A
BLEND. IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS BACKING OFF SOME ON
QPF...THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT FROM THE HI RES HRRR AND RAP WITH
THERE LIKELY BEING A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN THE
SHOWERS SLIDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...LEAVING BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE...AND KEPT THAT MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST.
MODEL DATA AND SPC MESO PAGE SHOW THAT SUB FREEZING 850MB TEMPS ARE
IN PLACE ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FEEL THAT ONCE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION FINALLY STARTS WORKING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...IT
WILL FALL AS SNOW...EVEN WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID 30S.
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO ALLOW FOR
A RA/SN MIX OR STRAIGHT RA...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. EXPECTING A FULL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS SWITCHED OVER TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...NOT CONFIDENT THAT ANYONE WOULD GET 6+ INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MAIN
BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...IN CASE IT ENDS UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...BACKED OFF THE
START TIME OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO MID
MORNING...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE EAST STILL STARTING AT 18Z. LATEST
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE END TIME BY
3 HRS TO 09Z.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT
HIT THE CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ESP IN THE
HEAVIER BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE COULD BRING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF A FEW HRS WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO NEAR ONE HALF OF
A MILE AND PRESENT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WITH THE CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN PLACE
AND PRECIP CHANCES MOVING IN...NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT
OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR PCPN AND PERIODS OF WAA/CAA.
HEIGHTS RISE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP W/E OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
EAST FM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH EXPECTED. IN THE
MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEAR 60F.
THE STEADY SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH SFC
DPS PROGGED TO RISE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE
LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN WAA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHCS FOR
PCPN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THE H7 WAVE MAY
CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
MEANDER EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND REORGANIZE/DEEPEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS
ACROSS PCPN CHC CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN FOR EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK A TROUGHY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
SUBTLE WAVES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THRU. ALTHOUGH IT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY WET...HIT OR MISS CHCS FOR PCPN ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AXIS EXPAND EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARMER AIR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THE HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE TERMINAL AREA...ESP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AM STAYING ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF
THINGS AT THIS POINT...REALIZE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS
THE DAY PASSES...AND HAVE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS DONT LOOK TO NOTABLY IMPROVE UNTIL CLOSER
TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. REALLY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072-073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-062-063-074-075-082>084.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
450 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE
REGION UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH LIFT AIDED ALONG THE NOSE OF A SRLY LLJ
JET AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION...BEEN SEEING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER PASS THROUGH. THE BRUNT OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS AFFECTED ERN KS OVERNIGHT...AND JUST A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SITS NEAR THE OK/TX/NM BORDER AREA...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/NE THROUGH FAR SRN PORTIONS OF KS.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES AS OF 4 AM.
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS...AND WANT TO
STATE THAT DUE TO LINGERING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN HOW TODAY PLAYS OUT IS NOT HIGH.
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES...TAKING A MORE NERLY TURN AS IT
EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE GENERAL TRACK TAKES IT RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...AND MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN
THE MID LEVELS...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH WHETHER IT
STAYS THAT WAY OR FILLS/BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND AT WHAT
LEVELS /700 OR 500 MB/. THE GFS IS ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SIDE...STRONGER AND KEEPING BOTH LEVELS CLOSED...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF WEAKENED...SHOWING A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE 700MB LOW
/ALREADY IN MN BY 00Z COMPARED TO OVER SC AND ERN NEB SHOWN BY THE
GFS/ AND AN OPEN 500MB WAVE. THE NAM/GEM ARE IN BETWEEN BUT CLOSER
TO THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD THE
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BETTER
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS...THE GFS LEADING THE
WAY DUE TO ITS STRONGER SOLUTION...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS A
BLEND. IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS BACKING OFF SOME ON
QPF...THERE IS ALSO AGREEMENT FROM THE HI RES HRRR AND RAP WITH
THERE LIKELY BEING A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN THE
SHOWERS SLIDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...LEAVING BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
DRIZZLE...AND KEPT THAT MENTION GOING IN THE FORECAST.
MODEL DATA AND SPC MESO PAGE SHOW THAT SUB FREEZING 850MB TEMPS ARE
IN PLACE ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FEEL THAT ONCE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION FINALLY STARTS WORKING INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING...IT
WILL FALL AS SNOW...EVEN WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID 30S.
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN AREAS...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT LOOK TO ALLOW FOR
A RA/SN MIX OR STRAIGHT RA...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. EXPECTING A FULL
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS SWITCHED OVER TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...NOT CONFIDENT THAT ANYONE WOULD GET 6+ INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MAIN
BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...IN CASE IT ENDS UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...BACKED OFF THE
START TIME OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO MID
MORNING...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE EAST STILL STARTING AT 18Z. LATEST
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL NE OF THE AREA
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE END TIME BY
3 HRS TO 09Z.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT
HIT THE CRITERIA OF 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ESP IN THE
HEAVIER BAND ONCE IT DEVELOPS...THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE COULD BRING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF A FEW HRS WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO NEAR ONE HALF OF
A MILE AND PRESENT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WITH THE CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN PLACE
AND PRECIP CHANCES MOVING IN...NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE HECK OF A LOT
OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT CHCS FOR PCPN AND PERIODS OF WAA/CAA.
HEIGHTS RISE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP W/E OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING
EAST FM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH EXPECTED. IN THE
MODERATING AIRMASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS NEAR 60F.
THE STEADY SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH SFC
DPS PROGGED TO RISE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE
LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN WAA AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND INCREASING DYNAMICS AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHCS FOR
PCPN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THE H7 WAVE MAY
CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
MEANDER EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND REORGANIZE/DEEPEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS
ACROSS PCPN CHC CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN FOR EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK A TROUGHY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
SUBTLE WAVES AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THRU. ALTHOUGH IT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY WET...HIT OR MISS CHCS FOR PCPN ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WE SEE THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AXIS EXPAND EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARMER AIR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THE HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLIDING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE PLAINS. DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AND THEN SN LATER TODAY...CONDITIONS RUN
FROM MVFR TO LIFR. IMPROVEMENTS NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD IN UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE NORTH...THEN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS KS/OK. INCREASING SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING NEAR 25 MPH AND GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072-073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-062-063-074-075-082>084.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1134 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
THE AREA TO WATCH TONIGHT IS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB
TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW LIFTS INTO THE FCST AREA WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
THE MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS BUT IS BACKING OFF ON THE QPF ACROSS ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST. THE RAP IS DRIER THAN THE NAM THRU 19Z. THE
GEM REGIONAL IS THE NEXT MODEL TO COME IN...THEN THE GFS. AT THIS
POINT THE PROSPECT FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 83 APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING. THE LATER MODEL RUNS OF THE GEM...GFS...ECM AS WELL AS
THE RAP WHICH COMES IN ONCE PER HOUR FOR AN 18 HOUR FORECAST WILL
RESOLVE THIS FORECAST PROBLEM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
AT FIRST GLANCE...THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE SNOW FORECAST BUT IT IS ACTUALLY FASTER THAN THE NAM
BRINGING VERY STRONG FORCING INTO NERN COLO. THIS AREA OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG OR JUST LEFT OF THE H700MB
LOW WHICH ALL MODELS MOVE THRU SCNTL AND NERN NEB THURSDAY. FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK EXCEPT THE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL INDICATED IN THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INTO
SWRN NEB THURSDAY MORNING.
THE UPDATE TO THE FORECAST USES A BIT WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT WHICH
HAS LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON THE SNOW FORECAST SINCE IT SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AFTER 06Z. THE GEM...NAM...GFS AND SREF WERE
USED FOR QPF WITH A SIMPLE 10 TO 1 RATIO FOR SNOW. THIS TIGHTENED UP
THE SNOW BAND BUT ONLY PRODUCED UP TO 7 INCHES IN HOLT COUNTY.
IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT THEN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRACK 50 OR SO MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO ONEILL THURSDAY. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES
SUSTAINED 25 MPH SFC WINDS DEVELOPING AT 16Z ACROSS SWRN NEB
ASSOCIATED WITH A 35 KT BARRIER JET SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GEM.
THOSE MODELS STRENGTHEN THAT JET FROM 35KT AT 15Z TO 55KT BY 03Z
WHICH IS A MODELS WAY OF SAYING BLIZZARD. BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE HIGHEST POP AREAS.
ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE AVAILABLE BY AROUND 10 PM CDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM...AND MAKES FOR A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SOMEWHAT MORE DEVELOPED
AND STRONGER SYSTEM...AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THESE
MODELS. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE LAST THREE
SYSTEMS...AND HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS
LATEST SYSTEM. A CROSS SECTION OF THE NAM MODEL INDICATES A GOOD
AGEOSTROPHIC THERMAL CIRCULATION...WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THIS
POINTS TO A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING...LIKELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
ONEILL TO BROKEN BOW TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THIS BAND IS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE OPTED FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE SOME OTHER FACTORS /SOUTHERN
PLAINS CONVECTION/ THAT COULD DISRUPT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
OUR AREA THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN OVERALL LESS SNOW. ANOTHER
REASON TO SIDE WITH THE WATCH AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SIGNS OF A BARRIER JET DEVELOPING. IF THE
SNOWFALL MATERIALIZES AS FORECASTED...THEN LOW VISIBILITY IS LIKELY
WITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THIS EVENING...WITH FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF AND ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO IOWA. COLDER AIR THEN COMES
IN FROM MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AN INCH AND A HALF IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT ENDS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA THOUGH WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY 06Z IN
MUCH OF THE WEST.
THEN...AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RETURN
FLOW WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. ALSO...RETURN FLOW BRINGS A TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A STORM OUT OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THOUGH
THE CYCLONE CENTER WILL FOLLOW A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
THE ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS IT DOES...ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NEARLY
SATURATED AIR THROUGH A LAYER OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY. THE LIFT IS
NOT REAL STRONG IN THE MOIST LAYER...BUT IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT
SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE
UNDERLYING NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND WARM...SO
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED.
FINALLY...AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THAT SHOULD BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO
NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
A DEEP STORM SYSTEM...ACROSS ARIZONA AT 04Z...WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE CNTL PLAINS THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
EVENING.
VFR/MVFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED BETWEEN KVTN-KIEN AS THIS AREA
SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE STRATUS.
SOUTH OF A KSNY-KANW LINE...MIXED...MVFR/IFR/LIFR IN SNOW...FOG AND
STRATUS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLIGHT
CONDITIONS IMPROVING WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ007-009-010-026>029-037-038-059-070-071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1059 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE NC/SC
WESTERN PIEDMONT IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE
PUSHING INTO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BEFORE DAYBREAK. AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE WARM...WITH A BAND OF
REASONABLY THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADD TO THAT PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND IT IS AN UNSEASONABLY
WARM EVENING INLAND FROM THE BEACHES.
RADAR HAS REMAINED QUIET SO FAR...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING
OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE ARE NO FAVORABLY
POSITIONED JET STREAKS TO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE ITSELF IS QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG AND HIGH-RES HRRR MODEL PROGS
STILL SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS I AM
HOLDING ONTO THE 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE MID 60S JUST INLAND
FROM THE NC COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT MAY TAKE AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK TO FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE...WAITING ON A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TO MOVE BY TO OUR N.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND THE FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL HAVE ALREADY
MOVED OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...SO WILL CONFINE POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST EARLY ON TO ALREADY BELOW FURTHER
INLAND WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING. MODEST MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODEST COOL AND DRY
ADVECTION WITH SUNSHINE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S AND THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK TO THE N SUN
AND SUN NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL SHIFT
TO E AND SE LATE IN THE DAY SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
NEARS. THE COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED OR NEARLY SO THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...NEAR A HALF INCH SAT...WILL BE
RISING DURING SUN AND THEN PEAK SUN NIGHT...AROUND AN INCH AND A
HALF. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE RAMPING HIGHER...ESPECIALLY SUN
NIGHT AS MUCH WARMER AND VERY MOIST AIR OVERRIDES THE SHALLOW COOL
AIRMASS AT/NEAR THE SURFACE. TIMING IS STILL NOT NAILED DOWN...BUT
WILL BEGIN INCREASING POPS FROM S TO N SUN...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH POPS RAMPING TO CATEGORICAL SUN NIGHT. GIVEN
INCREASING CAPE VALUES...WILL INCLUDE SMALL MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF
INCH WITH MORE CONVECTION LIKELY ON MON.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ON SUN...WHEN CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKEST...MAINLY MID 60S. SAT...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL
BE ABLE TO RISE WELL UP INTO THE 70S IF NOT HIT 80 ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLEST NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL
OCCUR SAT NIGHT...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE MOST PART. CLOUDS
AND BETTER MIXING SUN NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER...NEAR
50 TO THE MID 50S. THESE LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED EARLY IN
THE EVE...THEN RISING OVERNIGHT AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS
TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO SURGE N.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE EMPHASIS REMAINS ON THE COMPLEX AND POTENT
STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STILL A LOT TO BE DETERMINED AS FAR AS POSITIONING AND TIMING BUT
OVERALL POPS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE
EVENT WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD SLOW
THE PROGRESS. I HAVE INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR ALL OF THESE
PERIODS PER HIGHER CONFIDENCE. ALSO A BIT EARLY ON THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE WEATHER BUT PER SPC DISCUSSIONS...INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE THE WILD CARD. BEYOND
THIS...A WESTERLY/FLATTER FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE MID LEVELS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WEDNESDAY MODERATING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERED CIGS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UPSTREAM THERE IS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALONG WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR...ESPECIALLY INLAND. BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. BECOMING
VFR TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY A STRONG SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION COUPLED WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WIND CREATED
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES EARLIER. THESE REALLY STRONG
WINDS HAVE DIED AWAY...BUT A BACKGROUND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 20
KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE UP UNTIL ALMOST DAYBREAK. WHEN COUPLED WITH
4-5 FOOT SEAS AN "EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL REMAIN APPENDED TO
THE FORECAST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHTER WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A T-STORM MAY
PRECEDE THE FRONT LATE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT
MORNING...SHIFTING SW WINDS TO N AND THEN NE. NE WINDS SAT NIGHT
WILL VEER TO E SUN AFTERNOON AND TO SE SUN NIGHT AS THE STALLED COLD
FRONT TO OUR S BEGINS TO ADVANCE N. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE NEAR
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SUBSIDING. SEAS
WILL REVERSE HIGHER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...RUGGED CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS USUAL...STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY AT THIS POINT NOT THE
STRONGEST I HAVE SEEN. STILL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TO 20-25 KNOTS BY DAYS END
MONDAY AND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY BUT LOOK FOR A LATE DAY ARRIVAL.
WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LOOK FOR WINDS FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW VALUES TO
DROP WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL/RAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
751 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...ANOTHER BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY HAS
BROUGHT THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE 80+ DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE TO ILM
AND FLO. THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS OCT 4-7 2013. HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH AND THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION...BUT THE QUESTION IS WILL THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION? STATISTICAL MOS PRODUCTS
ONLY SAY THERE`S A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE...AND HRRR HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL. JET DYNAMICS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN OUR
FORECAST.
SEABREEZE WINDS AT THE BEACHES HAVE REACHED 25 KNOTS IN GUSTS
IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUITE A BIT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP WINDS
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST...THROUGH EARLY MORNING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WHILE THE BEST
DYNAMICS FOR PRECIP WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND INSTABILITY
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH OF BOTH AROUND
TONIGHT TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. POPS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 20 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS NEAR THE
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. MINS
TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH UPPER 50S ON TAP
WELL INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT MAY TAKE AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK TO FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE...WAITING ON A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TO MOVE BY TO OUR N.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND THE FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL HAVE ALREADY
MOVED OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...SO WILL CONFINE POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST EARLY ON TO ALREADY BELOW FURTHER
INLAND WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING. MODEST MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODEST COOL AND DRY
ADVECTION WITH SUNSHINE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S AND THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK TO THE N SUN
AND SUN NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL SHIFT
TO E AND SE LATE IN THE DAY SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
NEARS. THE COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED OR NEARLY SO THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...NEAR A HALF INCH SAT...WILL BE
RISING DURING SUN AND THEN PEAK SUN NIGHT...AROUND AN INCH AND A
HALF. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE RAMPING HIGHER...ESPECIALLY SUN
NIGHT AS MUCH WARMER AND VERY MOIST AIR OVERRIDES THE SHALLOW COOL
AIRMASS AT/NEAR THE SURFACE. TIMING IS STILL NOT NAILED DOWN...BUT
WILL BEGIN INCREASING POPS FROM S TO N SUN...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH POPS RAMPING TO CATEGORICAL SUN NIGHT. GIVEN
INCREASING CAPE VALUES...WILL INCLUDE SMALL MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF
INCH WITH MORE CONVECTION LIKELY ON MON.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ON SUN...WHEN CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKEST...MAINLY MID 60S. SAT...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL
BE ABLE TO RISE WELL UP INTO THE 70S IF NOT HIT 80 ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLEST NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL
OCCUR SAT NIGHT...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE MOST PART. CLOUDS
AND BETTER MIXING SUN NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER...NEAR
50 TO THE MID 50S. THESE LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED EARLY IN
THE EVE...THEN RISING OVERNIGHT AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS
TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO SURGE N.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE EMPHASIS REMAINS ON THE COMPLEX AND POTENT
STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STILL A LOT TO BE DETERMINED AS FAR AS POSITIONING AND TIMING BUT
OVERALL POPS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE
EVENT WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD SLOW
THE PROGRESS. I HAVE INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR ALL OF THESE
PERIODS PER HIGHER CONFIDENCE. ALSO A BIT EARLY ON THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE WEATHER BUT PER SPC DISCUSSIONS...INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE THE WILD CARD. BEYOND
THIS...A WESTERLY/FLATTER FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE MID LEVELS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WEDNESDAY MODERATING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERED CIGS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UPSTREAM THERE IS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALONG WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR...ESPECIALLY INLAND. BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. BECOMING
VFR TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY A STRONG SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION COUPLED WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WIND IS
CREATING WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT THE BEACHES. THESE REALLY STRONG
WINDS SHOULD DIE AWAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT A
BACKGROUND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 20 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE. WHEN
COUPLED WITH 4-5 FOOT SEAS AN "EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL
REMAIN APPENDED TO THE FORECAST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
TOMORROW MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...
SCEC CONDITIONS ONGOING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. RATHER
STAGNANT SFC FEATURES OVER THE SE U.S. AND ADJACENT ATL WATERS THIS
WEEK...WILL FINALLY START PROGRESSING. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...WILL GET PUSHED FURTHER
OFFSHORE AND EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TODAY...AND APPROACH THE AREA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND TIGHTENING
GRADIENT WILL YIELD SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RESPOND AND BUILD TO A MORE WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 FT THIS AFTN
AND HOLD AT THESE HEIGHTS THRU TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
GOVERNED BY THE SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES. BEST TIME FOR RATHER
WEAK FEW/SCT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT
MORNING...SHIFTING SW WINDS TO N AND THEN NE. NE WINDS SAT NIGHT
WILL VEER TO E SUN AFTERNOON AND TO SE SUN NIGHT AS THE STALLED COLD
FRONT TO OUR S BEGINS TO ADVANCE N. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE NEAR
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SUBSIDING. SEAS
WILL REVERSE HIGHER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...RUGGED CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS USUAL...STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY AT THIS POINT NOT THE
STRONGEST I HAVE SEEN. STILL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TO 20-25 KNOTS BY DAYS END
MONDAY AND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY BUT LOOK FOR A LATE DAY ARRIVAL.
WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LOOK FOR WINDS FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW VALUES TO
DROP WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RAN/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL/RAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
749 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY. A WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV WILL LIKELY AFFECT AT
LEAST THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-16Z...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH AROUND 18Z. THE GFS HAS HANDLED UPSTREAM QPF
BEST PER OBSERVED 06Z PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND IT IS BY FAR THE WETTEST
GUIDANCE (A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH) AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER...GFS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE SOME 10-20 DEGREES TOO HIGH OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THIS ERROR IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUCH HIGH QPF HERE. AS
SUCH...AND SINCE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING FROM CLOUD BASES
NO LOWER THAN 6-10 THOUSAND FT...WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER EC AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE NEARER TERM RAP AND HRRR
FORECASTS...WHICH SUPPORT JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT HAS EDGED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A KMTV-KTDF-KLHZ-
KOCW ARC PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA THIS MORNING...AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL FROM NEAR KINT-KJNX-KEWN THROUGH 12-15Z PER...BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE BOUNDARY IS A SHALLOW ONE...WITH BEST DEPTH OVER SE VA AND
NE NC WHERE THE ADDED INFLUENCE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS IS
MOST PRONOUNCED. SINCE THE BOUNDARY DEPTH IS OTHERWISE
LIMITED...COOLING BEHIND IT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS WITH HEATING AND TAPS INTO OTHERWISE STILL RELATIVELY-WARM
AIR JUST ABOVE THE COOLER SURFACE LAYER. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WED OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...RANGING TO LOWER 80S FROM
GREENSBORO TO RALEIGH...AND UPPER 70S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. THE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION REFERENCED
ABOVE WERE TO MATERIALIZE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN DIABATIC
REINFORCEMENT OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...RETARD WARM FRONTAL
RETREAT...AND YIELD TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON - A LOW
PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO.
MILD WITH PASSING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE (IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE) IN A TIGHTENING MSL
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
FRI AND FRI NIGHT: WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE TO THOSE
OF WED AREA-WIDE...SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE UNDOUBTEDLY
RETREATED INTO VA BY THIS TIME.
IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OR TWO OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL EVOLVE/BE ONGOING EARLY FRI FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY
TO THE GULF COAST STATES...IN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A
990-995 MB SURFACE CYCLONE AND PARENT CLOSED UPPER LOW MIGRATING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...OR PERHAPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDING THE PARENT UPPER LOW. NONETHELESS...WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...10-30 METER/12HR HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT...AND MOST NOTABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ...WARRANT A CONTINUED FORECAST OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS - AS EARLY AS AROUND 6 PM OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS ELSEWHERE.
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MORE
LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BETTER COINCIDE WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF I-95 BY 12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO OUR REGION.
WHILE THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...MOIST
SW FLOW ALOFT AND RESULTING CIRRUS WILL FILTER THE SUNSHINE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW H8 TEMPS GOING FROM 16C FRIDAY TO AROUND 8C
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...THUS TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL...LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND MID 40S FOR LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
ON SUNDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE
DAY...BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN A TRADITIONAL CAD
PATTERN. LOOK FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY
GIVEN STRENGTHENING MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT (AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH)...WHICH WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER BL AIR INTO
THE AREA...THUS LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
LIGHT RAIN WILL THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS S-
SW FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS PROGGED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT. AFTER 18Z...MODELS
ERODE THE CAD WEDGE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT.
THE GFS CUTS THE PRECIP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE DAY AS WE GET DRY
SLOTTED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTM
MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.
GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST
WHICH KEEPS 40-60 POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY TIL ABOUT 06Z
TUE. ITS WORTH POINTING OUT THAT CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CAD...WHERE THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY SETS UP...AND HOW LONG IT TAKES TO ERODE IT. WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW LIFTING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH...RIGHT NOW
WILL LEAN TOWARD HOLDING ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HSLC CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA LATER
IN THE DAY.
THEREAFTER THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED DUE TO THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ASSOC WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC
SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY..ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOC PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG A KRUQ-KJNX-KPGV ARC
THIS MORNING...AND THIS BOUNDARY BEGIN A NORTHEASTWARD RETREAT IN
THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIALLY NE TO N
SURFACE WINDS AT ALL SITES NORTH OF KFAY THROUGH 16-18Z...WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE AGAIN WITH THE RETREAT OF THE FRONT. A
WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A
MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME REMNANT...VFR SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES
WILL LIKELY AFFECT AT LEAST THE TRIAD TERMINALS BETWEEN 12-16Z...AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KRDU AND KRWI BETWEEN 15-19Z. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NO WORSE THAN BETWEEN 6 AND 10 THOUSAND FT
DURING THAT TIME...HOWEVER. DESPITE THE CONTINUATION OF A 7-10 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE TONIGHT...MARGINAL LLWS CRITERIA ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE - IN A STRONG NOCTURNAL
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 1000-1500 FT - STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 40S KTS
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS...WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL NC. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SUN NIGHT-MON.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
329 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY. A WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV WILL LIKELY AFFECT AT
LEAST THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-16Z...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH AROUND 18Z. THE GFS HAS HANDLED UPSTREAM QPF
BEST PER OBSERVED 06Z PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND IT IS BY FAR THE WETTEST
GUIDANCE (A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH) AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER...GFS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE SOME 10-20 DEGREES TOO HIGH OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THIS ERROR IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUCH HIGH QPF HERE. AS
SUCH...AND SINCE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING FROM CLOUD BASES
NO LOWER THAN 6-10 THOUSAND FT...WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER EC AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE NEARER TERM RAP AND HRRR
FORECASTS...WHICH SUPPORT JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT HAS EDGED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A KMTV-KTDF-KLHZ-
KOCW ARC PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA THIS MORNING...AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL FROM NEAR KINT-KJNX-KEWN THROUGH 12-15Z PER...BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE BOUNDARY IS A SHALLOW ONE...WITH BEST DEPTH OVER SE VA AND
NE NC WHERE THE ADDED INFLUENCE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS IS
MOST PRONOUNCED. SINCE THE BOUNDARY DEPTH IS OTHERWISE
LIMITED...COOLING BEHIND IT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS WITH HEATING AND TAPS INTO OTHERWISE STILL RELATIVELY-WARM
AIR JUST ABOVE THE COOLER SURFACE LAYER. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WED OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...RANGING TO LOWER 80S FROM
GREENSBORO TO RALEIGH...AND UPPER 70S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. THE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION REFERENCED
ABOVE WERE TO MATERIALIZE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN DIABATIC
REINFORCEMENT OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...RETARD WARM FRONTAL
RETREAT...AND YIELD TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON - A LOW
PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO.
MILD WITH PASSING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AMIDST SOUTHWESTERLY
STIRRING IN A TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
FRI AND FRI NIGHT: WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE TO THOSE
OF WED AREA-WIDE...SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE UNDOUBTEDLY
RETREATED INTO VA.
IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OR TWO OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL EVOLVE/BE ONGOING EARLY FRI FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY
TO THE GULF COAST STATES...IN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A
990-995 MB SURFACE CYCLONE AND PARENT CLOSED UPPER LOW MIGRATING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRI.
THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...OR PERHAPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...SINCE THEY WILL BE MOVING
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDING THE PARENT UPPER LOW. NONETHELESS...WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...10-30 METER/12HR HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT...AND MOST NOTABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ...WARRANTS A CONTINUED FORECAST OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS - AS EARLY AS AROUND 6 PM OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS ELSEWHERE.
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MORE
LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BETTER COINCIDE WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST OF I-95 BY 12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO OUR REGION.
WHILE THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...MOIST
SW FLOW ALOFT AND RESULTING CIRRUS WILL FILTER THE SUNSHINE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW H8 TEMPS GOING FROM 16C FRIDAY TO AROUND 8C
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...THUS TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL...LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND MID 40S FOR LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
ON SUNDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE
DAY...BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN A TRADITIONAL CAD
PATTERN. LOOK FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY
GIVEN STRENGTHENING MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT (AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH)...WHICH WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER BL AIR INTO
THE AREA...THUS LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
LIGHT RAIN WILL THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS S-
SW FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS PROGGED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT. AFTER 18Z...MODELS
ERODE THE CAD WEDGE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT.
THE GFS CUTS THE PRECIP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE DAY AS WE GET DRY
SLOTTED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTM
MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.
GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST
WHICH KEEPS 40-60 POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY TIL ABOUT 06Z
TUE. ITS WORTH POINTING OUT THAT CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CAD...WHERE THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY SETS UP...AND HOW LONG IT TAKES TO ERODE IT. WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW LIFTING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH...RIGHT NOW
WILL LEAN TOWARD HOLDING ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HSLC CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA LATER
IN THE DAY.
THEREAFTER THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED DUE TO THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ASSOC WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC
SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY..ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOC PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT HAS EDGED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A KMTV-KTDF-KLHZ-KOCW ARC
THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY STALL INVOF KRDU AND TRIAD TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE RETURNING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORM OF A WARM
FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIALLY GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS MAY CONSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHT NE OR N FOR SEVERAL
HOURS NORTH OF KFAY THROUGH 15-16Z...BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RESUMES THEREAFTER. A WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...BUT SOME WEAKENING VFR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY AFFECT AT LEAST THE TRIAD TERMINALS BETWEEN 12-
16Z...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KRDU AND KRWI BETWEEN 14-19Z.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NO WORSE THAN BETWEEN 6 AND 10
THOUSAND FT DURING THAT TIME...HOWEVER.
OUTLOOK: A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS...WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL NC. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SUN NIGHT-MON.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TODAY. A WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV WILL LIKELY AFFECT AT
LEAST THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-16Z...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH AROUND 18Z. THE GFS HAS HANDLED UPSTREAM QPF
BEST PER OBSERVED 06Z PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND IT IS BY FAR THE WETTEST
GUIDANCE (A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH) AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NC THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER...GFS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE SOME 10-20 DEGREES TOO HIGH OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...SO IT
IS LIKELY THAT THIS ERROR IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUCH HIGH QPF HERE. AS
SUCH...AND SINCE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING FROM CLOUD BASES
NO LOWER THAN 6-10 THOUSAND FT...WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER EC AND NAM
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE NEARER TERM RAP AND HRRR
FORECASTS...WHICH SUPPORT JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT HAS EDGED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A KMTV-KTDF-KLHZ-
KOCW ARC PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA THIS MORNING...AND IT WILL LIKELY
STALL FROM NEAR KINT-KJNX-KEWN THROUGH 12-15Z PER...BEFORE
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE BOUNDARY IS A SHALLOW ONE...WITH BEST DEPTH OVER SE VA AND
NE NC WHERE THE ADDED INFLUENCE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS IS
MOST PRONOUNCED. SINCE THE BOUNDARY DEPTH IS OTHERWISE
LIMITED...COOLING BEHIND IT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS WITH HEATING AND TAPS INTO OTHERWISE STILL RELATIVELY-WARM
AIR JUST ABOVE THE COOLER SURFACE LAYER. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WED OVER THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...RANGING TO LOWER 80S FROM
GREENSBORO TO RALEIGH...AND UPPER 70S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. THE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION REFERENCED
ABOVE WERE TO MATERIALIZE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN DIABATIC
REINFORCEMENT OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...RETARD WARM FRONTAL
RETREAT...AND YIELD TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON - A LOW
PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO.
MILD WITH PASSING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AMIDST SOUTHWESTERLY
STIRRING IN A TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW
FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASES ON THE 305K SURFACE FOR A PERIOD
THURSDAY...MOVING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE
500MB JETLET AND WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST 850MB LIFT. THE
GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING WITH THE LIFT
TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MOST PARTICULARLY IN AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE NCEP AND SPC WRF GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOW THE GREATEST PROBABILITY. FOR THURSDAY...WILL KEEP
PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT
WEAKENING OF ECHOES AS THEY APPROACH...BUT ALSO THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCES THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVERALL SOUTH OF U.S. 64 EXCEPT DRY FROM ABOUT KMEB TO JUST
SOUTH OF KGSB WHERE BUFR SOUNDINGS...OVERALL MOISTURE...AND
AVAILABLE LIFT SEEM TOO LIMITED CURRENTLY FOR PRECIPITATION. ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF U.S. 64...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
MAY BE IN THE FORM OF A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH MORE STEEPENING OF LAYER LAPSE RATES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFTED INDICES FALL TO NEAR -3C...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STABLE...AND THE
WRF GUIDANCE IS CERTAINLY NOT AS ROBUST AS THE NAM. BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT AT THIS POINT THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE LEANS MORE TOWARD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY IF THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THURSDAY...AND IT COULD BE
A SITUATION WHERE THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WARMS NICELY LATE IN
THE DAY WHILE THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN ONLY GETS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S...WITH MORE CLOUDS THERE AND NEARER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AS WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE TO NEAR
30KT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
TO HAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
K INDICES FALL TO NEGATIVE VALUES UNDER AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY
CERTAINLY APPEAR TO BE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL MOVE OFF WELL TO NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HENCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
PRECIP/LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...THE
SPC KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH OUR
EXTREME WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER. THIS IS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FINALLY SHOWING IT
ERODE BY AROUND 00Z/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE LINE OF
STORMS MAKES IT TO OUR REGION...ANY MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WHERE THE ARRIVAL TIMING WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER.
OTHERWISE...ONLY LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT...AS
THE AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER
EAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND DEPENDING ON THE SPEED...THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THAT FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S
TO THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...MOSTLY LOW
TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
ON SUNDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE
DAY...BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN A TRADITIONAL CAD
PATTERN. LOOK FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY
GIVEN STRENGTHENING MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT (AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH)...WHICH WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER BL AIR INTO
THE AREA...THUS LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
LIGHT RAIN WILL THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS S-
SW FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS PROGGED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT. AFTER 18Z...MODELS
ERODE THE CAD WEDGE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT.
THE GFS CUTS THE PRECIP OFF QUICKLY BY LATE DAY AS WE GET DRY
SLOTTED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTM
MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT.
GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST
WHICH KEEPS 40-60 POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY TIL ABOUT 06Z
TUE. ITS WORTH POINTING OUT THAT CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CAD...WHERE THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY SETS UP...AND HOW LONG IT TAKES TO ERODE IT. WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW LIFTING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH...RIGHT NOW
WILL LEAN TOWARD HOLDING ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HSLC CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA LATER
IN THE DAY.
THEREAFTER THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED DUE TO THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ASSOC WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC
SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT EITHER SOLUTION SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY..ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TROUGH AND ASSOC PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT HAS EDGED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A KMTV-KTDF-KLHZ-KOCW ARC
THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY STALL INVOF KRDU AND TRIAD TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE RETURNING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORM OF A WARM
FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INITIALLY GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS MAY CONSEQUENTLY BECOME LIGHT NE OR N FOR SEVERAL
HOURS NORTH OF KFAY THROUGH 15-16Z...BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RESUMES THEREAFTER. A WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...BUT SOME WEAKENING VFR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY AFFECT AT LEAST THE TRIAD TERMINALS BETWEEN 12-
16Z...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS KRDU AND KRWI BETWEEN 14-19Z.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NO WORSE THAN BETWEEN 6 AND 10
THOUSAND FT DURING THAT TIME...HOWEVER.
OUTLOOK: A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS...WILL OCCUR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL NC. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SUN NIGHT-MON.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...DJF/KRD
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
OVERNIGHT. AREAS RADARS SHOWING WEAK RETURN OVER OVER NORTHWEST ND
BUT GIVEN HIGH CEILINGS, PRECIP NOT REACHING THE GROUND. WILL KEEP
FLURRIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWERED TEMPS FOR NORTHERN MN AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE
TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
TWEAKED WIND A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED FOR CLOUD COVER. WILL
LOOK AT TEMPS AT THE NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TONIGHTS LOWS AS A
RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM PILOT MOUND...MB DOWN THROUGH
EUREKA...SD SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...ENTERING MN SIDE
OF THE VALLEY BY AROUND 06Z TO 08Z. A WEAK COOL FRONT CLIPS THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY EARLY SAT MORNING. GENERALLY LIKE A BLEND OF
THE NAM AND ECMWF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BULLISH WITH MOISTURE AND
HAS A COUPLE OF PERIODS (THE LAST TWO RUNS) WITH QPF BULLSEYES.
NAM/ECMWF IS GENERALLY DRIER.
TONIGHT...ATTM DIFFICULT TO ASSESS TRUE CLOUD COVER WITH SOME
AREAS THINNING/CLEARING...BUT DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE LOW
CLOUDS FROM RECENT SNOW IN OTHER AREAS. IN GENERAL..APPEARS CLOUDS
ARE THINNING...AND THE RUC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON IT CLEARING OUT AFT 00Z ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST. CERTAINLY THINK BY 06Z AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT THEN
SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVING INTO SASK WILL
MOVE ACROSS MB IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME...AND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE I DID REMOVE POPS AND GO WITH FLURRIES OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING WITH SPRINKLES NORTHEAST BY NOON. GFS SOUNDINGS DRY MID
LEVELS OUT INDICATING POSSIBLE DRIZZLE BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THAT
POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL SEE BREEZY SFC WINDS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS SHIFT NW EARLY EVENING AND
BEFORE SFC HIGH BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT. SFC LOWS COULD BE
COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING IN AREAS OF FRESHER SNOW AS
WE SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE
NORTH...WARMER TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE WILL STILL HAVE
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE SKY COVER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL SEE STRONGER RETURN FLOW SET UP SUN AFTN
AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO 5OS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS IN
SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH A SFC LOW/WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS
AREA SUN NIGHT...WITH NAM SHOWING SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
LATE SUN AFTN BUT GENERALLY DRY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF SIMILAR TO NAM WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION
MINUS LATE SUN AFTN ACTIVITY. GFS BRINGS ACROSS MORE MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS SUN AFTN BUT LIMITS PRECIP TO SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA SUN NIGHT. AGAIN...GENERALLY LIKE THE DRIER SOLUTION
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY GULF MOISTURE LIKELY BEING ROBBED BY STRONG
CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN (BECOMING RAIN/SNOW BY
EARLY MON MORNING) ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH LOW POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF HILLSBORO.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE N CENTRAL US INTO MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A STEADY WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES TOPPING OUT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN 60S LOOKS LIKELY.
FLOW THEN FLATTENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR FLATTENING THE RIDGE WILL
DROP THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FROPA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
BAND OF CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT WERE CENTERED FROM
NEAR RRT TO BJI TO ADC. THE 50 MILE WIDE BAND WAS MOVING TO THE SSE
AROUND 15 KNOTS.
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 20 HUNDRED FT EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY
GRIGGS COUNTY TO POLK COUNTY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER. A FINGER
EXTENDED NORTHWEST FROM GRIGGS COUNTY INTO CAVALIER AND TOWNER
COUNTIES. THE BAND WAS ALSO MOVING SSE ABOUT 15 KNOTS. CONCURRENTLY
THE WEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND WAS CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT ABOUT
15 KNOTS.
EXPECT BAND OF CLOUD IN NORTHWEST ZONES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
COUPLE HOURS. OTHER BANDS WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT/DISSIPATE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
TWEAKED WIND A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED FOR CLOUD COVER. WILL
LOOK AT TEMPS AT THE NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TONIGHTS LOWS AS A
RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM PILOT MOUND...MB DOWN THROUGH
EUREKA...SD SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...ENTERING MN SIDE
OF THE VALLEY BY AROUND 06Z TO 08Z. A WEAK COOL FRONT CLIPS THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY EARLY SAT MORNING. GENERALLY LIKE A BLEND OF
THE NAM AND ECMWF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BULLISH WITH MOISTURE AND
HAS A COUPLE OF PERIODS (THE LAST TWO RUNS) WITH QPF BULLSEYES.
NAM/ECMWF IS GENERALLY DRIER.
TONIGHT...ATTM DIFFICULT TO ASSESS TRUE CLOUD COVER WITH SOME
AREAS THINNING/CLEARING...BUT DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE LOW
CLOUDS FROM RECENT SNOW IN OTHER AREAS. IN GENERAL..APPEARS CLOUDS
ARE THINNING...AND THE RUC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON IT CLEARING OUT AFT 00Z ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST. CERTAINLY THINK BY 06Z AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT THEN
SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVING INTO SASK WILL
MOVE ACROSS MB IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME...AND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE I DID REMOVE POPS AND GO WITH FLURRIES OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING WITH SPRINKLES NORTHEAST BY NOON. GFS SOUNDINGS DRY MID
LEVELS OUT INDICATING POSSIBLE DRIZZLE BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THAT
POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL SEE BREEZY SFC WINDS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS SHIFT NW EARLY EVENING AND
BEFORE SFC HIGH BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT. SFC LOWS COULD BE
COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING IN AREAS OF FRESHER SNOW AS
WE SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE
NORTH...WARMER TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE WILL STILL HAVE
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE SKY COVER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL SEE STRONGER RETURN FLOW SET UP SUN AFTN
AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO 5OS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS IN
SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH A SFC LOW/WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS
AREA SUN NIGHT...WITH NAM SHOWING SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
LATE SUN AFTN BUT GENERALLY DRY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF SIMILAR TO NAM WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION
MINUS LATE SUN AFTN ACTIVITY. GFS BRINGS ACROSS MORE MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS SUN AFTN BUT LIMITS PRECIP TO SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA SUN NIGHT. AGAIN...GENERALLY LIKE THE DRIER SOLUTION
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY GULF MOISTURE LIKELY BEING ROBBED BY STRONG
CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN (BECOMING RAIN/SNOW BY
EARLY MON MORNING) ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH LOW POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF HILLSBORO.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE N CENTRAL US INTO MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A STEADY WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES TOPPING OUT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN 60S LOOKS LIKELY.
FLOW THEN FLATTENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR FLATTENING THE RIDGE WILL
DROP THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FROPA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
BAND OF CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT WERE CENTERED FROM
NEAR RRT TO BJI TO ADC. THE 50 MILE WIDE BAND WAS MOVING TO THE SSE
AROUND 15 KNOTS.
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 20 HUNDRED FT EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY
GRIGGS COUNTY TO POLK COUNTY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER. A FINGER
EXTENDED NORTHWEST FROM GRIGGS COUNTY INTO CAVALIER AND TOWNER
COUNTIES. THE BAND WAS ALSO MOVING SSE ABOUT 15 KNOTS. CONCURRENTLY
THE WEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND WAS CLEARING FROM THE WEST AT ABOUT
15 KNOTS.
EXPECT BAND OF CLOUD IN NORTHWEST ZONES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
COUPLE HOURS. OTHER BANDS WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT/DISSIPATE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
135 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AS A WARM WAVE MOVES
EAST ALONG IT. COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
PLEASANT WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.
PREV DISCN...
WARM FRONT MOVES N THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS A WARM WAVE MOVES E
ALONG IT.
THE FRONT WAS STILL STALLED ACROSS THE TUG FORK EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT FARTHER W...IT WAS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS A
WARM FRONT. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING NEWD
OVER TOP OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAKES IT
TOUGH TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT AND THESE DISTURBANCES CROSS.
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW TO SE ACROSS KY EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...AND SHOULD MOVE
NEWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND WILL LIKELY FALL APART AND REFORM BY THE
TIME THE DISTURBANCE AND WARM WAVE MOVE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECOND UPTICK IN POPS
THERE THEN.
THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE THEN LIFTS NEWD INTO PA TONIGHT. THE FCST
AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MILD WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
BECOMING SPARSE.
MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY JUST OVER AN INCH W OF THE OHIO RIVER
TODAY...MOST OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE AND WARM WAVE. ONLY THE RUC AND THE HRRR SHOW MUCH QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. THIS MORNING. THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY COULD HANDLE THE RAINFALL TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL PRIME
THE SOIL FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THE NEAR
TERM. HOWEVER...PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 IN OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUGGEST DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON HEATING S OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SFC DEW POINTS CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 50S WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 700 J/KG.
WITH ABOUT 40 KTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY AND THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF FOR LOWS TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT. KEPT MAINLY SHOWERS
BUT DID INCLUDE CHC OF THUNDER MAINLY WITH THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
BE RATHER WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON GOOD SSW FLOW.
FRONT EXITS FRIDAY EVENING. LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LOW POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT.
SKIES CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MIXING AND EXPECT A RATHER
BREEZY DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20 KNOT RANGE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SUNDAY WITH MILD BUT DRY WEATHER.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT LIFTS OUT OF A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A WINDY SYSTEM WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO INTERACT WITH ITS
ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND THEN COLD FRONT. IN GENERAL...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
CREATE A RELATIVE RAIN SHADOW BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND THE
MOUNTAINS...SO LOWER QPF EXPECTED THERE. NEVERTHELESS...A GOOD
SOAKER IN GENERAL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES ACROSS MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...OMITTING THUNDER FOR NOW DUE TO DIURNAL
FACTORS. THEN...POST FRONTAL WRAPAROUND SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FOCUS
TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY...ENHANCED BY MODEST COLD ADVECTION.
THE AIR DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO
WILL KEEP LIQUID THRU TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
RAIN SHOWERS WIND DOWN PRETTY FAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT REALLY THAT
COLD. SO BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY...
EXPECT FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OH/KY MOVES INTO THE REGION. AFTER
20Z...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD IN AND AROUND
THE SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL END AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR/IFR FROM THE WEST
AFT 04Z.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN
DETERIORATE AND BECOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR IN THE SHOUWERS AND STORMS.
LIGHT S TO SE SFC FLOW N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME S TO SW ONCE
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MODERATE SW
LATE TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY FROM FCST. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
TAFS TO TSRA FOR SOME SITES LATER TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H M L M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M L L M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L M H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...21/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
658 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE MULTI-FACETED
AND DIFFICULT TO PUT INTO WORDS...WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE ILN CWA. SEVERAL HAZARDS ARE
GOING TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF...BUT TIMING
THEM OUT AND DETERMINING THEIR SEVERITY REMAINS THE BIGGEST
DIFFICULTY.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A HUGE MCS BEING DRIVEN BY A LOW-LEVEL JET IN
MISSOURI. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THERE TO THE
EAST...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
OF THE ILN CWA. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE MUCH
DIFFERENT...WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ILN AREA (AND ADJACENT
CWAS) ARE ELEVATED...WITH A CLEAR INVERSION PRESENT NEAR THE
SURFACE. THE LARGE LEADING-STRATIFORM MCS (SOMEWHAT OF AN ODDITY)
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY IS BEING HANDLED VERY POORLY (IF AT ALL) IN
MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE HIGH-RES RUNS (RAP/HRRR) JUST CATCHING
UP TO IT ON THE PAST FEW CYCLES.
AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH...THERE IS WIDESPREAD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRING FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...WHICH ARE ALREADY HIGH...WILL ONLY
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY (TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES). THE FRONT
WILL ACT AS A SOURCE OF CONVERGENCE...BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE
ENHANCED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO IT. 00Z RUNS HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE MORE RESERVED WITH HOW FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL GET DURING
THE DAY...AS ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING...AND
IMPACTING THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD. THANKS ALSO TO THE RAIN THAT FELL LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD SOME EXTRA COUNTIES
NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI TO THE FLOOD WATCH. ALTHOUGH
ISSUED AS A FLOOD WATCH...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SETUP WILL
DOES PRESENT A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...THOUGH THE WATCH
EXTENDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
RAINFALL DOES APPEAR TO BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY...FURTHER COMPLICATING
THE FORECAST. THIS MORNING...WHILE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS
MOSTLY DISCRETE...A FEW UPSTREAM CELLS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
ELEVATED HAIL CORES. ANYTHING REACHING SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE
RATHER UNLIKELY...BUT SOME HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LATER TODAY...THE
CONVECTIVE MODE (WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER) FOR MOST
OF THE CWA (NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT) WILL PROBABLY NOT SUPPORT
MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. RATHER...SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE LARGER-SCALE
MODELS HAVE HINTED AT THIS FEATURE FOR DAYS...BUT WITH THE
HIGH-RES MODELS NOW IN RANGE...IT IS APPARENT THAT THERE IS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE SOME INTERESTING IMPACTS ON
THE WIND FLOW...WITH WHAT ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE A DAYTIME
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER BY
21Z...WHILE SURFACE FLOW NEAR THE BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY...NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT (WITH LOW LCLS)...AND AHEAD OF AN AREA OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION (WITH SIGNS OF AN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE TRACK
OF THE EMBEDDED LOW). MOST MODELS DO SHOW ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN ILN CWA TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABILIZATION AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH...THOUGH THE HRRR IS MUCH
RAINIER AND DOES NOT DEVELOP DISTINCT CONVECTION ANYWHERE NORTH
OF THE LMK/JKL FORECAST AREAS. THE END RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS
THAT THERE IS A CONDITIONAL TORNADO/WIND THREAT FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR PEAK DIURNAL TIMING THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE ARE A LOT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ISSUES
THAT COULD CAUSE THAT FORECAST TO GO AWRY. A WASHED-OUT SCENARIO
INCAPABLE OF CAPITALIZING ON THE SHEAR IS ALSO A LEGITIMATE
POSSIBILITY.
WITH THE NORTHWARD FRONTAL MOTION TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...MAX
TEMPS WERE BUMPED DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES TODAY. TEMPS ARE UNLIKELY
TO MOVE MUCH AT ALL IN THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
CWA...WITH NO BOUNDARY-LAYER WARM PUSH (AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING)...AND PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL SIGNS POINT TO A BREAK IN HEAVY PRECIPITATION BY MID-EVENING
ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA...AS THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS
BIG PUSH TO THE NORTH...AND THE WAVE ALONG IT MOVES OFF INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS
EVENING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR THE GULF
COAST. SPC HAS ISSUED A DAY 1 MODERATE RISK FOR A PORTION OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
REGION AS WELL.
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...OR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...IS
FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND A DECENT DISTANCE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. MOST OF THE QPF/SIM-RADAR DEPICTIONS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING APPEAR RATHER DISORGANIZED...AT
LEAST IN TERMS OF STORM MODE. THE EASIEST THING TO DO WHEN LOOKING
AT THIS SETUP WOULD BE TO EXPECT ANOTHER QLCS OR SERIES OF LINE
SEGMENTS...CAPABLE OF A WIND THREAT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK TORNADOES. THAT COULD VERY WELL HAPPEN...BUT THE NUANCES WITH
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF FORCING AND STORM LOCATION DO NOT SEEM TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS EVENT WILL BE OF A HIGHER-END NATURE. IN
FACT...ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS CERTAINLY STRONG...IT IS NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE COLD-SEASON QLCS EVENTS FROM THE PAST
FEW MONTHS. THE LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM PEAKS OUT AT
AROUND 40-50 KNOTS...WHICH IS RESPECTABLE BUT NOT EXTREME.
INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE A SOLID SEVERAL-HUNDRED J/KG. AN
INTERESTING SCENARIO DEPICTED ON THE ARW AND NMM RUNS ALLOWS THE
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ON THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME TRUTH TO THE FACT THAT STORMS
WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AS
THEY OUTRUN THE FRONTAL FORCING AND GET INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM
IN TIMING. NOT MUCH ELSE CAN BE GLEANED FROM THIS SET OF MODEL
RUNS. ULTIMATELY...WHILE SOME SEVERE-THREAT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
ARE MODELED WITH PRECISION IN ADVANCE...THIS IS NOT ONE OF THOSE
CASES.
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE RUN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BIGGEST NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL COME AFTER 06Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN CWA...WITH THE COLD FRONT CAUSING AN EARLY DECREASE IN
TEMPS ON FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WINDS ON FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS WIND FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
WELL-MIXED POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT GUSTS OF 35-45
MPH...CERTAINLY WORTH MENTIONING IN THE HWO AS ITS OWN THREAT. THE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS LASTING EVEN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN CWA. WINDS LATE SATURDAY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...OVERSPREADING RAIN. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THEN TURN OFF FROM
SW-NE IN FAVOR OF PLAIN SHOWERS. THIS IS HAPPENING AS THE SUPPORT OF
THE UPPER LOW TRIGGERING THESE STRONGER STORMS CROSSES. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS UPPER LOW...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKY COVER ON THE CLOUDY
SIDE AND HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE SPLOTCHY IN PUTTING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT HAVE LITTLE SUPPORT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS FOR SUCH FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A COOL NORTH FLOW OVER THE REGION EARLY AND
THEN LET WARMER AIR WORK IN THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...AGAIN BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT IS VERY MOIST AND AS SUCH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO
THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ALSO
OCCURRING. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE DISTURBANCES WILL EXIT
EAST AND PRECIPITATION WILL WANE. CEILINGS MAY EVENTUALLY LIFT TO
VFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY EVENING OR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THIS AREA WILL BE WARM SECTORED. FARTHER
NORTH...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY UNTIL
THE WARM FRONT CAN LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
AND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN A ZONE OF
PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 35 KT LIKELY FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ042>044-051>053-
060>062-070-071-077-078.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>093.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
628 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AS A WARM WAVE MOVES
EAST ALONG IT. COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
PLEASANT WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.
PREV DISCN...
WARM FRONT MOVES N THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS A WARM WAVE MOVES E
ALONG IT.
THE FRONT WAS STILL STALLED ACROSS THE TUG FORK EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT FARTHER W...IT WAS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS A
WARM FRONT. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING NEWD
OVER TOP OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAKES IT
TOUGH TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT AND THESE DISTURBANCES CROSS.
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW TO SE ACROSS KY EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...AND SHOULD MOVE
NEWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND WILL LIKELY FALL APART AND REFORM BY THE
TIME THE DISTURBANCE AND WARM WAVE MOVE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECOND UPTICK IN POPS
THERE THEN.
THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE THEN LIFTS NEWD INTO PA TONIGHT. THE FCST
AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MILD WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
BECOMING SPARSE.
MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY JUST OVER AN INCH W OF THE OHIO RIVER
TODAY...MOST OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE AND WARM WAVE. ONLY THE RUC AND THE HRRR SHOW MUCH QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. THIS MORNING. THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY COULD HANDLE THE RAINFALL TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL PRIME
THE SOIL FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THE NEAR
TERM. HOWEVER...PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 IN OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUGGEST DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON HEATING S OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SFC DEW POINTS CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 50S WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 700 J/KG.
WITH ABOUT 40 KTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY AND THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF FOR LOWS TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT. KEPT MAINLY SHOWERS
BUT DID INCLUDE CHC OF THUNDER MAINLY WITH THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
BE RATHER WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON GOOD SSW FLOW.
FRONT EXITS FRIDAY EVENING. LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LOW POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT.
SKIES CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MIXING AND EXPECT A RATHER
BREEZY DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20 KNOT RANGE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SUNDAY WITH MILD BUT DRY WEATHER.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT LIFTS OUT OF A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A WINDY SYSTEM WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO INTERACT WITH ITS
ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND THEN COLD FRONT. IN GENERAL...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
CREATE A RELATIVE RAIN SHADOW BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND THE
MOUNTAINS...SO LOWER QPF EXPECTED THERE. NEVERTHELESS...A GOOD
SOAKER IN GENERAL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES ACROSS MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...OMITTING THUNDER FOR NOW DUE TO DIURNAL
FACTORS. THEN...POST FRONTAL WRAPAROUND SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FOCUS
TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY...ENHANCED BY MODEST COLD ADVECTION.
THE AIR DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO
WILL KEEP LIQUID THRU TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
RAIN SHOWERS WIND DOWN PRETTY FAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT REALLY THAT
COLD. SO BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY N THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...WITH A WARM WAVE
MOVING EWD ALONG IT THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME
PRECIPITATION WITH A SLOW MOVING SPRING WARM FRONT...BUT ONE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KY WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE WARM WAVE WILL INSTIGATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY...THIS TIME MAINLY OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
ALSO TOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ...BUT THEY ARE
MOST LIKELY LATE TODAY...WHEN THEY CAN PRODUCE IFR IN
DOWNPOURS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT N OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE AREAS OF POST-RAIN
MIST.
LIGHT S TO SE SFC FLOW N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME S TO SW ONCE
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CRW AND HTS FIRST THING THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN TEND TO GET HUNG UP FROM PKB TO CKB TO EKN AND
THEN DOWN THE MOUNTAINS TO BKW...NOT CLEANLY MOVING THROUGH THESE
LOCATIONS UNTIL 02Z TO 04Z FRI. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME MODERATE SW LATE TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY FROM FCST. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
TAFS TO TSRA FOR SOME SITES LATER TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 04/03/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...21/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
459 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...AS A WARM WAVE MOVES
EAST ALONG IT. COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A
PLEASANT WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM FRONT MOVES N THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS A WARM WAVE MOVES E
ALONG IT.
THE FRONT WAS STILL STALLED ACROSS THE TUG FORK EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT FARTHER W...IT WAS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS A
WARM FRONT. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING NEWD
OVER TOP OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAKES IT
TOUGH TO TIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT AND THESE DISTURBANCES CROSS.
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NW TO SE ACROSS KY EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...AND SHOULD MOVE
NEWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY. LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECOND DISTURBANCE...AND WILL LIKELY FALL APART AND REFORM BY THE
TIME THE DISTURBANCE AND WARM WAVE MOVE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
THE FCST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECOND UPTICK IN POPS
THERE THEN.
THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE THEN LIFTS NEWD INTO PA TONIGHT. THE FCST
AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MILD WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
BECOMING SPARSE.
MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY JUST OVER AN INCH W OF THE OHIO RIVER
TODAY...MOST OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE AND WARM WAVE. ONLY THE RUC AND THE HRRR SHOW MUCH QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. THIS MORNING. THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY COULD HANDLE THE RAINFALL TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL PRIME
THE SOIL FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THE NEAR
TERM. HOWEVER...PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 IN OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUGGEST DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON HEATING S OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SFC DEW POINTS CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 50S WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 700 J/KG.
WITH ABOUT 40 KTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
BLENDED IN THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY AND THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF FOR LOWS TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT. KEPT MAINLY SHOWERS
BUT DID INCLUDE CHC OF THUNDER MAINLY WITH THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
BE RATHER WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON GOOD SSW FLOW.
FRONT EXITS FRIDAY EVENING. LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LOW POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...DRYING AND CLEARING THINGS OUT.
SKIES CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MIXING AND EXPECT A RATHER
BREEZY DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20 KNOT RANGE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SUNDAY WITH MILD BUT DRY WEATHER.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS SYSTEM TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT LIFTS OUT OF A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A WINDY SYSTEM WITH GOOD DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO INTERACT WITH ITS
ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND THEN COLD FRONT. IN GENERAL...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
CREATE A RELATIVE RAIN SHADOW BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND THE
MOUNTAINS...SO LOWER QPF EXPECTED THERE. NEVERTHELESS...A GOOD
SOAKER IN GENERAL. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES ACROSS MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...OMITTING THUNDER FOR NOW DUE TO DIURNAL
FACTORS. THEN...POST FRONTAL WRAPAROUND SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FOCUS
TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY...ENHANCED BY MODEST COLD ADVECTION.
THE AIR DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO
WILL KEEP LIQUID THRU TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
RAIN SHOWERS WIND DOWN PRETTY FAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. IT
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT REALLY THAT
COLD. SO BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY N THROUGH THE AREA THIS PERIOD...WITH A WARM
WAVE MOVING EWD ALONG THE FRONT THU. VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME
PRECIPITATION WITH A SLOW MOVING SPRING WARM FRONT...BUT ONE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL MOVE NWD THROUGH
THE AREA THU. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY WITH THIS ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM E CNTRL OHIO THROUGH NRN WV COMPARED WITH POINTS S.
ALSO TOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER AS WARM FRONTS TEND TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NT AND EARLY MORNING HRS.
ALSO...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE S OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.
LIGHT S TO SE SFC FLOW N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME S TO SW ONCE
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES THU
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CRW AND HTS AROUND
13Z...BUT THEN TEND TO GET HUNG UP FROM PKB TO CKB TO EKN AND THEN
DOWN THE MOUNTAINS TO BKW...NOT CLEANLY MOVING THROUGH THESE
LOCATIONS UNTIL 02Z TO 04Z FRI. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME MODERATE SW LATE THU.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY BRIEFLY LOWER IN SHOWERS THROUGH ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE TAFS TO
TSRA FOR SOME SITES AFTER 12Z THU.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 04/03/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...21/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
452 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE MULTI-FACETED
AND DIFFICULT TO PUT INTO WORDS...WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE ILN CWA. SEVERAL HAZARDS ARE
GOING TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF...BUT TIMING
THEM OUT AND DETERMINING THEIR SEVERITY REMAINS THE BIGGEST
DIFFICULTY.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH A HUGE MCS BEING DRIVEN BY A LOW-LEVEL JET IN
MISSOURI. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THERE TO THE
EAST...WITH THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
OF THE ILN CWA. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE MUCH
DIFFERENT...WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ILN AREA (AND ADJACENT
CWAS) ARE ELEVATED...WITH A CLEAR INVERSION PRESENT NEAR THE
SURFACE. THE LARGE LEADING-STRATIFORM MCS (SOMEWHAT OF AN ODDITY)
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY IS BEING HANDLED VERY POORLY (IF AT ALL) IN
MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE HIGH-RES RUNS (RAP/HRRR) JUST CATCHING
UP TO IT ON THE PAST FEW CYCLES.
AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH...THERE IS WIDESPREAD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRING FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...WHICH ARE ALREADY HIGH...WILL ONLY
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY (TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES). THE FRONT
WILL ACT AS A SOURCE OF CONVERGENCE...BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE
ENHANCED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO IT. 00Z RUNS HAVE BEEN A
LITTLE MORE RESERVED WITH HOW FAR THE WARM FRONT WILL GET DURING
THE DAY...AS ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING...AND
IMPACTING THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD. THANKS ALSO TO THE RAIN THAT FELL LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD SOME EXTRA COUNTIES
NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI TO THE FLOOD WATCH. ALTHOUGH
ISSUED AS A FLOOD WATCH...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SETUP WILL
DOES PRESENT A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...THOUGH THE WATCH
EXTENDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
RAINFALL DOES APPEAR TO BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY...FURTHER COMPLICATING
THE FORECAST. THIS MORNING...WHILE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS
MOSTLY DISCRETE...A FEW UPSTREAM CELLS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
ELEVATED HAIL CORES. ANYTHING REACHING SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE
RATHER UNLIKELY...BUT SOME HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. LATER TODAY...THE
CONVECTIVE MODE (WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER) FOR MOST
OF THE CWA (NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT) WILL PROBABLY NOT SUPPORT
MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. RATHER...SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE LARGER-SCALE
MODELS HAVE HINTED AT THIS FEATURE FOR DAYS...BUT WITH THE
HIGH-RES MODELS NOW IN RANGE...IT IS APPARENT THAT THERE IS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE SOME INTERESTING IMPACTS ON
THE WIND FLOW...WITH WHAT ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE A DAYTIME
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER BY
21Z...WHILE SURFACE FLOW NEAR THE BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY...NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT (WITH LOW LCLS)...AND AHEAD OF AN AREA OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION (WITH SIGNS OF AN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE TRACK
OF THE EMBEDDED LOW). MOST MODELS DO SHOW ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN ILN CWA TO ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT OF
DESTABILIZATION AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH...THOUGH THE HRRR IS MUCH
RAINIER AND DOES NOT DEVELOP DISTINCT CONVECTION ANYWHERE NORTH
OF THE LMK/JKL FORECAST AREAS. THE END RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS
THAT THERE IS A CONDITIONAL TORNADO/WIND THREAT FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR PEAK DIURNAL TIMING THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE ARE A LOT OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ISSUES
THAT COULD CAUSE THAT FORECAST TO GO AWRY. A WASHED-OUT SCENARIO
INCAPABLE OF CAPITALIZING ON THE SHEAR IS ALSO A LEGITIMATE
POSSIBILITY.
WITH THE NORTHWARD FRONTAL MOTION TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...MAX
TEMPS WERE BUMPED DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES TODAY. TEMPS ARE UNLIKELY
TO MOVE MUCH AT ALL IN THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
CWA...WITH NO BOUNDARY-LAYER WARM PUSH (AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING)...AND PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL SIGNS POINT TO A BREAK IN HEAVY PRECIPITATION BY MID-EVENING
ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA...AS THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS
BIG PUSH TO THE NORTH...AND THE WAVE ALONG IT MOVES OFF INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS
EVENING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR THE GULF
COAST. SPC HAS ISSUED A DAY 1 MODERATE RISK FOR A PORTION OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
REGION AS WELL.
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...OR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...IS
FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND A DECENT DISTANCE OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. MOST OF THE QPF/SIM-RADAR DEPICTIONS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING APPEAR RATHER DISORGANIZED...AT
LEAST IN TERMS OF STORM MODE. THE EASIEST THING TO DO WHEN LOOKING
AT THIS SETUP WOULD BE TO EXPECT ANOTHER QLCS OR SERIES OF LINE
SEGMENTS...CAPABLE OF A WIND THREAT ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK TORNADOES. THAT COULD VERY WELL HAPPEN...BUT THE NUANCES WITH
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF FORCING AND STORM LOCATION DO NOT SEEM TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS EVENT WILL BE OF A HIGHER-END NATURE. IN
FACT...ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS CERTAINLY STRONG...IT IS NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE COLD-SEASON QLCS EVENTS FROM THE PAST
FEW MONTHS. THE LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM PEAKS OUT AT
AROUND 40-50 KNOTS...WHICH IS RESPECTABLE BUT NOT EXTREME.
INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE A SOLID SEVERAL-HUNDRED J/KG. AN
INTERESTING SCENARIO DEPICTED ON THE ARW AND NMM RUNS ALLOWS THE
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ON THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME TRUTH TO THE FACT THAT STORMS
WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AS
THEY OUTRUN THE FRONTAL FORCING AND GET INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM
IN TIMING. NOT MUCH ELSE CAN BE GLEANED FROM THIS SET OF MODEL
RUNS. ULTIMATELY...WHILE SOME SEVERE-THREAT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
ARE MODELED WITH PRECISION IN ADVANCE...THIS IS NOT ONE OF THOSE
CASES.
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE RUN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BIGGEST NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL COME AFTER 06Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN CWA...WITH THE COLD FRONT CAUSING AN EARLY DECREASE IN
TEMPS ON FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WINDS ON FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS WIND FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
WELL-MIXED POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT GUSTS OF 35-45
MPH...CERTAINLY WORTH MENTIONING IN THE HWO AS ITS OWN THREAT. THE
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS LASTING EVEN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN CWA. WINDS LATE SATURDAY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...OVERSPREADING RAIN. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THEN TURN OFF FROM
SW-NE IN FAVOR OF PLAIN SHOWERS. THIS IS HAPPENING AS THE SUPPORT OF
THE UPPER LOW TRIGGERING THESE STRONGER STORMS CROSSES. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS UPPER LOW...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKY COVER ON THE CLOUDY
SIDE AND HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE SPLOTCHY IN PUTTING SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT HAVE LITTLE SUPPORT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS FOR SUCH FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A COOL NORTH FLOW OVER THE REGION EARLY AND
THEN LET WARMER AIR WORK IN THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S...AGAIN BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WEAK MOIST ADVECTION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS. THEN...LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM FRONT IS VERY MOIST AND AS SUCH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO
THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY TODAY WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ALSO
OCCURRING. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL EXIT EAST AND PRECIPITATION WILL WANE. CEILINGS MAY EVENTUALLY
LIFT TO VFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY EVENING OR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THIS AREA WILL BE WARM SECTORED. FARTHER
NORTH...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY UNTIL
THE WARM FRONT CAN LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
AND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ042>044-051>053-
060>062-070-071-077-078.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>093.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
751 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...POSSIBLY MAKING FOR A WET START TO THE WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN TIER THROUGH MID MORNING IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL ENSEMBLE RUNS. IT
APPEARS THAT THE MAX ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL PASS
ALONG LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ONCE THE MCV AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND PCPN MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN BALLOON INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOME OF THE LARGER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...LOCATIONS LIKE ASHEVILLE ALSO STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF
HITTING 80 AGAIN TODAY.
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR TSTM WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN NC MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE FAIR WEATHER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS DO IMPLY THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NE GA...THE WRN UPSTATE AND THE SRN NC MTNS LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD
MAKE FOR A MURKY MORNING ACROSS THESE ZONES EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...OCCLUDED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT BEING PULLED ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY. PREFRONTAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOME DEGREE OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. IN DAY 2 OTLK...WHICH PUTS THE NW
HALF OF THE FA IN A SLIGHT RISK...SPC SUGGESTS THIS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT OVER THE FA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL
HAVE TO ERODE IN ORDER TO REALIZE THE OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY.
LLVL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ABUNDANT 0-3KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. LAPSE RATES REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INTO THE EVENING BUT SMALL CAPE CONTINUES TO BE
PRESENT ALONG WITH THE SHEAR...UNTIL FRONT CROSSES LATE FRI EVENING.
SAID FRONT CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED AS LOSING STEAM AS THE SYSTEM
WRAPS UP AND UPPER FORCING LIFTS AWAY. WHILE THE FRONTAL
EVOLUTION/TIMING LOOK SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...LESS CAPPING HAD
BEEN INDICATED DURING THE DAY SO TRENDS STILL BEAR WATCHING. SEVERE
THREAT DOES NOT NECESSARILY LOOK ANY HIGHER THAN ALREADY EXPECTED.
PWAT VALUES HAVE INCHED UP A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT/S RUNS...NOW CLOSER
TO 1.25 INCHES FRI AFTN...AND THUS CLOSER TO 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL.
MODEL QPF IS NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. NAM AND SREF PRODUCE
LITTLE CONVECTIVE QPF...BUT WITH THE HIGH PWATS ANY CELLS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DECENT RAIN RATES. HYDRO WOULD PROBABLY
STILL REMAIN A SECONDARY CONCERN HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPS FRI LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER WITH THE PCPN/FRONT COMING LATER. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE
10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS LIGHT QPF IN THE CONVERGENCE BAND ALG THE
FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL A CLEARING TREND WILL BEGIN
BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT LEAVING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY. WITH
SOLAR WARMING OFFSETTING THE COLDER AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL DROP BACK TO
WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. RETURN FLOW OVER THE STALLED
FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST LOOKS TO BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN
TEMPS STILL NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE
EAST COAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW BRINGS CONTINUED MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE FA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BROAD TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE WRN US INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS OVER LOUISIANA LATE SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS/EC/GEM AGREE ON THE LOW TRACK REASONABLY WELL THRU MON
MRNG...BUT BEYOND THERE THE EC TAKES THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES
INSTEAD OF THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LIKE THE OTHERS. 18Z GEFS MEMBERS
MOSTLY FOLLOW THE GFS-LIKE TRACK BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE
EC...OR EVEN TAKING THE LOW TOWARD THE DELMARVA. IN-SITU CAD WEDGE
COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY MON ACRS THE REGION BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
SCOURED OUT BY THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.
SEVERE WEATHER COULD AGAIN OCCUR MON AFTN ACRS THE FA WITH DECENT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY AND IMPRESSIVE LLVL SHEAR. CIPS ANALOGS MATCH A
HANDFUL OF EVENTS PRODUCING A SOUTHEAST OUTBREAK AND THE GENERAL
SETUP IS KNOWN TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SVR WX IN OUR REGION.
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND A LULL IN PRECIP OCCURS PRIOR TO THE POSSIBLE
ARRIVAL OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW EARLY TUE. AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH ON THE GFS TO BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS.
THE EC HOWEVER IS DRY AND WARMER. BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS WED AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...INITIALLY BEING KEPT COLDER BY THE WEDGE...BUT THEN
AN EFFECT OF THE DEEP ERN TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT...THERE ARE REPORTS OF A SMOKE LAYER TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH MIXING.
OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST OF THE
MORNING...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTN. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWERS WILL PASS
MAINLY NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-20
KTS. NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD OF THE TAF.
REMAINDER TAF SITES...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TAF SITES AS AT KCLT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVER
THE UPSTATE...WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20-22 KTS THIS AFTN. AT KAVL
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS VERY EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD...AND SHOWERS/TSTMS STAND A CHANCE OF REACHING KHKY BY MID
MORNING. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN DURING
THE AFTN...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NW OF THE AIRFIELDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICITONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD OF THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRI WHICH MIGHT
BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY
AND SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG/MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...POSSIBLY MAKING FOR A WET START TO THE WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ADD THUNDER FOR A
FEW HOURS FROM MADISON COUNTY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DECREASES THE FARTHER EAST ONE
GOES...LIGHTNING IS BEING INDICATED CLOSE TO THE TN LINE AND THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THESE ZONES WILL SEE A FEW TSTMS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.
AS OF 520 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPSLOPE AND UPGLIDE INDUCED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NC MTNS. THEY HAVE HIGH
BASES AND SOME OF THE PCPN LIKELY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL UPTREND IN THE COVERAGE OF THE
ECHOES ON RADAR AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE BASED ON THE HRRR.
FARTHER NORTH...THE DOWNSHEAR STRATIFORM RAIN AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS OVER ERN TN IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WRN NC MTNS. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SKY COVER WAS INCREASED WITH THIS UPDATE WHILE
THE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD.
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS I MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AFD
UPDATE...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB IN
CAPTURING THE CURRENT LOCATION OF UPSTREAM RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER MIDDLE AND ERN TN. I POPULATED WITH THIS MODEL THROUGH 12 UTC
WHICH BRINGS A PERIOD OF LIKELY SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS A FEW HOURS FROM NOW. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE NAM
REALLY WEAKENS ALONG THE TN LINE..THOUGH I DO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
TSTMS UP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. ONCE THE MCV AND IT/S ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE
MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BALLOON INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOME OF THE
LARGER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...LOCATIONS LIKE ASHEVILLE ALSO STAND A GOOD
CHANCE OF HITTING 80 AGAIN TODAY.
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR TSTM WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN NC MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE FAIR WEATHER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS DO IMPLY THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NE GA...THE WRN UPSTATE AND THE SRN NC MTNS LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD
MAKE FOR A MURKY MORNING ACROSS THESE ZONES EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...OCCLUDED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT BEING PULLED ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY. PREFRONTAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOME DEGREE OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. IN DAY 2 OTLK...WHICH PUTS THE NW
HALF OF THE FA IN A SLIGHT RISK...SPC SUGGESTS THIS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT OVER THE FA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL
HAVE TO ERODE IN ORDER TO REALIZE THE OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY.
LLVL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ABUNDANT 0-3KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. LAPSE RATES REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INTO THE EVENING BUT SMALL CAPE CONTINUES TO BE
PRESENT ALONG WITH THE SHEAR...UNTIL FRONT CROSSES LATE FRI EVENING.
SAID FRONT CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED AS LOSING STEAM AS THE SYSTEM
WRAPS UP AND UPPER FORCING LIFTS AWAY. WHILE THE FRONTAL
EVOLUTION/TIMING LOOK SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...LESS CAPPING HAD
BEEN INDICATED DURING THE DAY SO TRENDS STILL BEAR WATCHING. SEVERE
THREAT DOES NOT NECESSARILY LOOK ANY HIGHER THAN ALREADY EXPECTED.
PWAT VALUES HAVE INCHED UP A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT/S RUNS...NOW CLOSER
TO 1.25 INCHES FRI AFTN...AND THUS CLOSER TO 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL.
MODEL QPF IS NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. NAM AND SREF PRODUCE
LITTLE CONVECTIVE QPF...BUT WITH THE HIGH PWATS ANY CELLS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DECENT RAIN RATES. HYDRO WOULD PROBABLY
STILL REMAIN A SECONDARY CONCERN HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPS FRI LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER WITH THE PCPN/FRONT COMING LATER. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE
10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS LIGHT QPF IN THE CONVERGENCE BAND ALG THE
FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL A CLEARING TREND WILL BEGIN
BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT LEAVING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY. WITH
SOLAR WARMING OFFSETTING THE COLDER AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL DROP BACK TO
WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. RETURN FLOW OVER THE STALLED
FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST LOOKS TO BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN
TEMPS STILL NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE
EAST COAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW BRINGS CONTINUED MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE FA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BROAD TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE WRN US INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS OVER LOUISIANA LATE SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS/EC/GEM AGREE ON THE LOW TRACK REASONABLY WELL THRU MON
MRNG...BUT BEYOND THERE THE EC TAKES THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES
INSTEAD OF THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LIKE THE OTHERS. 18Z GEFS MEMBERS
MOSTLY FOLLOW THE GFS-LIKE TRACK BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE
EC...OR EVEN TAKING THE LOW TOWARD THE DELMARVA. IN-SITU CAD WEDGE
COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY MON ACRS THE REGION BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
SCOURED OUT BY THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.
SEVERE WEATHER COULD AGAIN OCCUR MON AFTN ACRS THE FA WITH DECENT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY AND IMPRESSIVE LLVL SHEAR. CIPS ANALOGS MATCH A
HANDFUL OF EVENTS PRODUCING A SOUTHEAST OUTBREAK AND THE GENERAL
SETUP IS KNOWN TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SVR WX IN OUR REGION.
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND A LULL IN PRECIP OCCURS PRIOR TO THE POSSIBLE
ARRIVAL OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW EARLY TUE. AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH ON THE GFS TO BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS.
THE EC HOWEVER IS DRY AND WARMER. BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS WED AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...INITIALLY BEING KEPT COLDER BY THE WEDGE...BUT THEN
AN EFFECT OF THE DEEP ERN TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST OF THE
MORNING...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTN. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND EARLY TODAY...BUT NOTHING THAT MERITS
MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-20
KTS. NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD OF THE TAF.
REMAINDER TAF SITES...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TAF SITES AS AT KCLT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVER
THE UPSTATE...WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20-22 KTS THIS AFTN. AT KAVL
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS VERY EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTN...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY NW OF THE AIRFIELD. OTHERWISE...NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICITONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD OF THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRI WHICH MIGHT
BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY
AND SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-10Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...POSSIBLY MAKING FOR A WET START TO THE WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 513 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPSLOPE AND UPGLIDE INDUCED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NC MTNS. THEY HAVE HIGH
BASES AND SOME OF THE PCPN LIKELY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL UPTREND IN THE COVERAGE OF THE
ECHOES ON RADAR AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE BASED ON THE HRRR.
FARTHER NORTH...THE DOWNSHEAR STRATIFORM RAIN AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS OVER ERN TN IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WRN NC MTNS. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SKY COVER WAS INCREASED WITH THIS UPDATE WHILE
THE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD.
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS I MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AFD
UPDATE...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB IN
CAPTURING THE CURRENT LOCATION OF UPSTREAM RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER MIDDLE AND ERN TN. I POPULATED WITH THIS MODEL THROUGH 12 UTC
WHICH BRINGS A PERIOD OF LIKELY SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS A FEW HOURS FROM NOW. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE NAM
REALLY WEAKENS ALONG THE TN LINE..THOUGH I DO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
TSTMS UP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. ONCE THE MCV AND IT/S ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE
MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BALLOON INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOME OF THE
LARGER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...LOCATIONS LIKE ASHEVILLE ALSO STAND A GOOD
CHANCE OF HITTING 80 AGAIN TODAY.
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR TSTM WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN NC MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE FAIR WEATHER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS DO IMPLY THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NE GA...THE WRN UPSTATE AND THE SRN NC MTNS LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD
MAKE FOR A MURKY MORNING ACROSS THESE ZONES EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...OCCLUDED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT BEING PULLED ACRS
THE TENN VALLEY. PREFRONTAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOME DEGREE OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. IN DAY 2 OTLK...WHICH PUTS THE NW
HALF OF THE FA IN A SLIGHT RISK...SPC SUGGESTS THIS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT OVER THE FA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL
HAVE TO ERODE IN ORDER TO REALIZE THE OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY.
LLVL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ABUNDANT 0-3KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. LAPSE RATES REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INTO THE EVENING BUT SMALL CAPE CONTINUES TO BE
PRESENT ALONG WITH THE SHEAR...UNTIL FRONT CROSSES LATE FRI EVENING.
SAID FRONT CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED AS LOSING STEAM AS THE SYSTEM
WRAPS UP AND UPPER FORCING LIFTS AWAY. WHILE THE FRONTAL
EVOLUTION/TIMING LOOK SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...LESS CAPPING HAD
BEEN INDICATED DURING THE DAY SO TRENDS STILL BEAR WATCHING. SEVERE
THREAT DOES NOT NECESSARILY LOOK ANY HIGHER THAN ALREADY EXPECTED.
PWAT VALUES HAVE INCHED UP A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT/S RUNS...NOW CLOSER
TO 1.25 INCHES FRI AFTN...AND THUS CLOSER TO 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL.
MODEL QPF IS NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. NAM AND SREF PRODUCE
LITTLE CONVECTIVE QPF...BUT WITH THE HIGH PWATS ANY CELLS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DECENT RAIN RATES. HYDRO WOULD PROBABLY
STILL REMAIN A SECONDARY CONCERN HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPS FRI LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER WITH THE PCPN/FRONT COMING LATER. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE
10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS LIGHT QPF IN THE CONVERGENCE BAND ALG THE
FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL A CLEARING TREND WILL BEGIN
BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT LEAVING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY. WITH
SOLAR WARMING OFFSETTING THE COLDER AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL DROP BACK TO
WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. RETURN FLOW OVER THE STALLED
FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST LOOKS TO BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN
TEMPS STILL NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE
EAST COAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW BRINGS CONTINUED MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE FA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BROAD TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE WRN US INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS OVER LOUISIANA LATE SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS/EC/GEM AGREE ON THE LOW TRACK REASONABLY WELL THRU MON
MRNG...BUT BEYOND THERE THE EC TAKES THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES
INSTEAD OF THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LIKE THE OTHERS. 18Z GEFS MEMBERS
MOSTLY FOLLOW THE GFS-LIKE TRACK BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE
EC...OR EVEN TAKING THE LOW TOWARD THE DELMARVA. IN-SITU CAD WEDGE
COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY MON ACRS THE REGION BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
SCOURED OUT BY THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.
SEVERE WEATHER COULD AGAIN OCCUR MON AFTN ACRS THE FA WITH DECENT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY AND IMPRESSIVE LLVL SHEAR. CIPS ANALOGS MATCH A
HANDFUL OF EVENTS PRODUCING A SOUTHEAST OUTBREAK AND THE GENERAL
SETUP IS KNOWN TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SVR WX IN OUR REGION.
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND A LULL IN PRECIP OCCURS PRIOR TO THE POSSIBLE
ARRIVAL OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW EARLY TUE. AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH ON THE GFS TO BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS.
THE EC HOWEVER IS DRY AND WARMER. BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS WED AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...INITIALLY BEING KEPT COLDER BY THE WEDGE...BUT THEN
AN EFFECT OF THE DEEP ERN TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH
SUNRISE. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT CIGS WILL ONLY GET AS LOW AS AROUND
8KFT BY 12 UTC. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES TO THE AIRFIELD AFTER 12 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...GUSTING UP TO 18 TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTN HOURS ONCE
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
REMAINDER TAF SITES...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TAF SITES AS AT KCLT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
KAVL THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 09
UTC AND LASTING UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
A TSTM...BUT THE NAM ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD ONLY SUPPORT TSTMS
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AIRFIELD
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRI WHICH MIGHT
BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PRECIP. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
09-15Z 15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...POSSIBLY MAKING FOR A WET START TO THE WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...AS I MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AFD
UPDATE...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB IN
CAPTURING THE CURRENT LOCATION OF UPSTREAM RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER MIDDLE AND ERN TN. I POPULATED WITH THIS MODEL THROUGH 12 UTC
WHICH BRINGS A PERIOD OF LIKELY SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS A FEW HOURS FROM NOW. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE NAM
REALLY WEAKENS ALONG THE TN LINE..THOUGH I DO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
TSTMS UP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS. ONCE THE MCV AND IT/S ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE
MAX TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BALLOON INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOME OF THE
LARGER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...LOCATIONS LIKE ASHEVILLE ALSO STAND A GOOD
CHANCE OF HITTING 80 AGAIN TODAY.
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR TSTM WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN NC MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE FAIR WEATHER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS DO IMPLY THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NE GA...THE WRN UPSTATE AND THE SRN NC MTNS LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD
MAKE FOR A MURKY MORNING ACROSS THESE ZONES EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...OCCLUDED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT BEING PULLED
ACRS THE TENN VALLEY. PREFRONTAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SPREAD INTO
THE AREA...WITH SOME DEGREE OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
ACRS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. IN DAY 2 OTLK...WHICH
PUTS THE NW HALF OF THE FA IN A SLIGHT RISK...SPC SUGGESTS THIS AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT OVER THE FA EARLY IN THE
DAY...WHICH WILL HAVE TO ERODE IN ORDER TO REALIZE THE OTHERWISE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
LLVL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ABUNDANT 0-3KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. LAPSE RATES REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INTO THE EVENING BUT SMALL CAPE CONTINUES TO BE
PRESENT ALONG WITH THE SHEAR...UNTIL FRONT CROSSES LATE FRI EVENING.
SAID FRONT CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED AS LOSING STEAM AS THE SYSTEM
WRAPS UP AND UPPER FORCING LIFTS AWAY. WHILE THE FRONTAL
EVOLUTION/TIMING LOOK SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...LESS CAPPING HAD
BEEN INDICATED DURING THE DAY SO TRENDS STILL BEAR WATCHING. SEVERE
THREAT DOES NOT NECESSARILY LOOK ANY HIGHER THAN ALREADY EXPECTED.
PWAT VALUES HAVE INCHED UP A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT/S RUNS...NOW CLOSER
TO 1.25 INCHES FRI AFTN...AND THUS CLOSER TO 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL.
MODEL QPF IS NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. NAM AND SREF PRODUCE
LITTLE CONVECTIVE QPF...BUT WITH THE HIGH PWATS ANY CELLS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DECENT RAIN RATES. HYDRO WOULD PROBABLY
STILL REMAIN A SECONDARY CONCERN HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPS FRI LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER WITH THE PCPN/FRONT COMING LATER. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE
10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS LIGHT QPF IN THE CONVERGENCE BAND ALG THE
FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL A CLEARING TREND WILL BEGIN
BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT LEAVING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY. WITH
SOLAR WARMING OFFSETTING THE COLDER AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL DROP BACK TO
WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. RETURN FLOW OVER THE STALLED
FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST LOOKS TO BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME SPRINKLES BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN
TEMPS STILL NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF EARLY THU MRNG...AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE
EAST COAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW BRINGS CONTINUED MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE FA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BROAD TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE WRN US INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS OVER LOUISIANA LATE SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS/EC/GEM AGREE ON THE LOW TRACK REASONABLY WELL THRU MON
MRNG...BUT BEYOND THERE THE EC TAKES THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES
INSTEAD OF THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LIKE THE OTHERS. 18Z GEFS MEMBERS
MOSTLY FOLLOW THE GFS-LIKE TRACK BUT THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE
EC...OR EVEN TAKING THE LOW TOWARD THE DELMARVA. IN-SITU CAD WEDGE
COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY MON ACRS THE REGION BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
SCOURED OUT BY THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.
SEVERE WEATHER COULD AGAIN OCCUR MON AFTN ACRS THE FA WITH DECENT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY AND IMPRESSIVE LLVL SHEAR. CIPS ANALOGS MATCH A
HANDFUL OF EVENTS PRODUCING A SOUTHEAST OUTBREAK AND THE GENERAL
SETUP IS KNOWN TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SVR WX IN OUR REGION.
THE LOW LIFTS AWAY AND A LULL IN PRECIP OCCURS PRIOR TO THE POSSIBLE
ARRIVAL OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW EARLY TUE. AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH ON THE GFS TO BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MTNS.
THE EC HOWEVER IS DRY AND WARMER. BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS WED AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...INITIALLY BEING KEPT COLDER BY THE WEDGE...BUT THEN
AN EFFECT OF THE DEEP ERN TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH
SUNRISE. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT CIGS WILL ONLY GET AS LOW AS AROUND
8KFT BY 12 UTC. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES TO THE AIRFIELD AFTER 12 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...GUSTING UP TO 18 TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTN HOURS ONCE
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
REMAINDER TAF SITES...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TAF SITES AS AT KCLT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
KAVL THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 09
UTC AND LASTING UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
A TSTM...BUT THE NAM ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD ONLY SUPPORT TSTMS
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AIRFIELD
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRI WHICH MIGHT
BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PRECIP. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-07Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FRIDAY WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...POSSIBLY MAKING FOR A WET START TO THE WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR DO A GOOD
JOB CAPTURING THE CURRENT LOCATION OF UPSTREAM RAIN AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS OVER MIDDLE AND ERN TN. I POPULATED WITH THIS MODEL THROUGH 12
UTC WHICH BRINGS A PERIOD OF LIKELY SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS A FEW HOURS FROM NOW. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE NAM
REALLY WEAKENS ALONG THE TN LINE..THOUGH I DO HAVE SOME ISOLATED
TSTMS UP ACROSS THE NRN MTNS.
AS OF 1030 PM...SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS WEAK WARM
FROM MOVE INTO THE MTNS AND NRN CWFA. THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA ON THU AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE MTNS...WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING
INTO THE I-40 CORRIDOR THU. HAVE UPDATED POP TO SHOW THESE TRENDS
ALONG WITH HIGHEST CHC ACROSS THE MTNS THU MORNING AND THE I-40
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARE BETTER. RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AS OF 735 PM...SOME MID CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE MTNS WITH MAINLY
CIRRUS ELSEWHERE. STILL EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
ARE RUNNING WARMER WITH DEW POINTS DRIER THAN EXPECTED. THAT SAID...
LOW TEMP FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT PRECIP TRENDS FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE. GUIDANCE SHOWING A MIXED BAG WITH PRECIP CHC ACROSS THE MTNS
AND I-40 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND THU. WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY UPDATE
TIMING...BUT NOT SURE IF ANY OVERALL POP CHANGES WILL BE MADE.
AT 440 PM...GOING FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
AT 205 PM...THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SW WINDS. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO
TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MILD TEMPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
SAT PICS INDICATE A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPING ON THE
AR/MS BORDER. 12Z MODELS PICK UP ON THE RESULTANT MCV AND TRACK IT
INTO WESTERN NC BY 12Z THU. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL WILL APPROACH FROM THE N. ALL MODELS RESPOND WITH QPF OVER THE
NC MOUNTAINS THU MORNING AND ALONG AND N OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY THU
AFTERNOON. HENCE...WILL FORECAST SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THOSE AREAS.
THIS STAYS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS POP DATA AND NEIGHBORS.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE THE RULE THU MORNING...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE THU AFTERNOON MOST AREAS AS MCV AND FRONT MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
MAX TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INITIALIZES
THURSDAY EVENING WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE AND A DEEPENING
NEUTRAL/NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PARENT SURFACE
LOW WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS.
MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPUSLES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN LEADING TO POCKETS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FORCING WILL YIELD
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING WHEN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD BEGINS THEREFORE WILL CARRY EARLIER POPS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH POPS LOWERING AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST AND
ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER IMPULSES EJECT NORTHEAST.
POPS WILL RAMP UP YET AGAIN AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
RESIDING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
YIELDS PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ADVECTION SURGES
AMIDST STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW. LIKEWISE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL ALLOW FOR
MODEST DESTABILIZATION IN THE THERMAL PROFILES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALONG WITH LATEST NAM PLAN VIEW PLOTS INDICATE BELT OF ENHANCED
SBCAPE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC/SC WITH VALUES GENERALLY
IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS THE TAMER
OF THE TWO WITH SBCAPE VALUES STRUGGLING TO TOP 800J/KG. SPC DAY3
CONV OUTLOOK ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING PLACES PORTIONS OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT
RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN
DUE TO LATEST GUIDANCE INSTABILITY FIELDS. ASIDE FROM ABOVE
MENTIONED UPSLOPE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION ALONG PREFRONTAL TROF INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT LINEAR STORM MODES WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND LONG SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES YIELDING A SECONDARY SMALL HAIL THREAT. INTENSITY OF THE
FROPA DROPS RAPIDLY AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST AND THE UPPER/SFC
LOWS EJECT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
MODEL QPF RESPONSE INDICATES SUCH WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WAINING. POPS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN DUE
TO NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE SHOWER POTENTIAL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WHILE FALLING OFF ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST ZONES. ALL POPS ARE
REMOVED BY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION
REGIME SETS UP. THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE THEREFORE GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REACH OR EXCEED NORMAL LEVELS ON SATURDAY DESPITE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WED...THE EXTENDED RANGE BEGINS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH SOLUTIONS HAVE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NORTH ACROSS THE MID WEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUN. USING
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHT...A AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ARKLATX. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 0Z SUN. I WILL
INCREASE SKY COVER AND POPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NNE...REACHING THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY MON AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWEEP
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG
AND EAST OF I-85...I WILL CARRY TSRA IN THE FORECAST.
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL RIPPLE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WED MORNING. THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION. THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE...PERSISTENT
WEST TO NORTHWEST H85 FLOW...AND ROUND OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
SUPPORT SCHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST...FAVORING THE MTNS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH
SUNRISE. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT CIGS WILL ONLY GET AS LOW AS AROUND
8KFT BY 12 UTC. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES TO THE AIRFIELD AFTER 12 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...GUSTING UP TO 18 TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTN HOURS ONCE
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
REMAINDER TAF SITES...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TAF SITES AS AT KCLT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT
KAVL THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 09
UTC AND LASTING UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
A TSTM...BUT THE NAM ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD ONLY SUPPORT TSTMS
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AIRFIELD
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRI WHICH MIGHT
BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PRECIP. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1245 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
BASICALLY HAVE AXED THE WARNINGS AND REPLACED WITH ADVISORIES AS IT
APPEARS HEAVIEST SNOWS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE EAST OF THE
ABR CWA. UPDATES HAVE ALL BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE TREND IN MODELS NOW IS TO BACK OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST INTO MN. THE EC ODDLY
ENOUGH HAS FLIP FLOPPED THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE
SEEING SNOW AMOUNTS DROP IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. WHATS TROUBLING
IS THAT MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE NAM HAVING A MORE CLOSED LOW
AT 500MB AND THE EC/GFS SHOWING A MORE OPEN WAVE. DEFORMATION
ZONES SHOWING UP IN DIFFERENT REGIONS AS WELL. REGARDLESS...ALL
MODELS STILL SHOWING A SWATH OF SNOW MOVING OVER THE CURRENT
WARNING AREA...BUT FEEL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE A BIT
TOO HIGH SO HAVE LOWERED A BIT MORE INTO THE 4 TO 7 RANGE.
DOWNGRADED CLARK COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY AS I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE. THINGS MAY BE SLOWING DOWN A
TAD AS WELL...SO MORNING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS. LATEST HRRR RUN DOESNT SHOW ANYTHING IN THE CWA YET EVEN
AT 20Z. STILL SOME WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST AS EVENT UNFOLDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ENDING TIMES OF THE HAZARDS AS WELL...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 12Z
FRIDAY AND THE WARNING AT 15Z FRIDAY.
AFTER THIS STORM EXITS ON FRIDAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
WARM UP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS ON SATURDAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
WILL SEE HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO WHOEVER STILL HAS
SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SATURDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THAT MELT OFF
BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. KEPT THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MUCH DRIER FORECAST.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD...THOUGH
THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
SOMEWHAT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN REGIME CHANGES. STILL THE CASE
FOR WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXISTS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUE AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
IMPACTED VISBY DUE TO SNOW IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN. THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION WOULD BE WATERTOWN WHEN THIS SYSTEM REACHES
PEAK INTENSITY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR
KABR/KATY...VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CLARK-
CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE-
TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CONNELLY
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1214 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
BASICALLY HAVE AXED THE WARNINGS AND REPLACED WITH ADVISORIES AS IT
APPEARS HEAVIEST SNOWS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE EAST OF THE
ABR CWA. UPDATES HAVE ALL BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE TREND IN MODELS NOW IS TO BACK OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST INTO MN. THE EC ODDLY
ENOUGH HAS FLIP FLOPPED THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE
SEEING SNOW AMOUNTS DROP IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. WHATS TROUBLING
IS THAT MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE NAM HAVING A MORE CLOSED LOW
AT 500MB AND THE EC/GFS SHOWING A MORE OPEN WAVE. DEFORMATION
ZONES SHOWING UP IN DIFFERENT REGIONS AS WELL. REGARDLESS...ALL
MODELS STILL SHOWING A SWATH OF SNOW MOVING OVER THE CURRENT
WARNING AREA...BUT FEEL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE A BIT
TOO HIGH SO HAVE LOWERED A BIT MORE INTO THE 4 TO 7 RANGE.
DOWNGRADED CLARK COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY AS I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE. THINGS MAY BE SLOWING DOWN A
TAD AS WELL...SO MORNING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS. LATEST HRRR RUN DOESNT SHOW ANYTHING IN THE CWA YET EVEN
AT 20Z. STILL SOME WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST AS EVENT UNFOLDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ENDING TIMES OF THE HAZARDS AS WELL...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 12Z
FRIDAY AND THE WARNING AT 15Z FRIDAY.
AFTER THIS STORM EXITS ON FRIDAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
WARM UP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS ON SATURDAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
WILL SEE HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO WHOEVER STILL HAS
SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SATURDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THAT MELT OFF
BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. KEPT THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MUCH DRIER FORECAST.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD...THOUGH
THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
SOMEWHAT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN REGIME CHANGES. STILL THE CASE
FOR WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXISTS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUE AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
FOG AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE DROPPED ALL SITES TO IFR
THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT KPIR VSBY TO IMPROVE WHEN WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE SNOW BANDS. KATY LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED BY THE SNOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CLARK-
CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE-
TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
852 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
TOO MANY REPORTS OF FZDZ AND THUS DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR
THE MORNING HOURS OVER PARTS OF NE/NC SD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SOME AND THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FZDZ SHOULD WANE TOWARD NOON.
UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE TREND IN MODELS NOW IS TO BACK OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST INTO MN. THE EC ODDLY
ENOUGH HAS FLIP FLOPPED THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE
SEEING SNOW AMOUNTS DROP IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. WHATS TROUBLING
IS THAT MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE NAM HAVING A MORE CLOSED LOW
AT 500MB AND THE EC/GFS SHOWING A MORE OPEN WAVE. DEFORMATION
ZONES SHOWING UP IN DIFFERENT REGIONS AS WELL. REGARDLESS...ALL
MODELS STILL SHOWING A SWATH OF SNOW MOVING OVER THE CURRENT
WARNING AREA...BUT FEEL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE A BIT
TOO HIGH SO HAVE LOWERED A BIT MORE INTO THE 4 TO 7 RANGE.
DOWNGRADED CLARK COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY AS I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE. THINGS MAY BE SLOWING DOWN A
TAD AS WELL...SO MORNING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS. LATEST HRRR RUN DOESNT SHOW ANYTHING IN THE CWA YET EVEN
AT 20Z. STILL SOME WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST AS EVENT UNFOLDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ENDING TIMES OF THE HAZARDS AS WELL...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 12Z
FRIDAY AND THE WARNING AT 15Z FRIDAY.
AFTER THIS STORM EXITS ON FRIDAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
WARM UP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS ON SATURDAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
WILL SEE HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO WHOEVER STILL HAS
SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SATURDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THAT MELT OFF
BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. KEPT THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MUCH DRIER FORECAST.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD...THOUGH
THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
SOMEWHAT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN REGIME CHANGES. STILL THE CASE
FOR WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXISTS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUE AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
FOG AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE DROPPED ALL SITES TO IFR
THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT KPIR VSBY TO IMPROVE WHEN WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE SNOW BANDS. KATY LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED BY THE SNOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BROWN-CAMPBELL-
EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-
SULLY-WALWORTH.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CLARK-DAY-ROBERTS-SPINK.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR TRAVERSE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
642 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
GETTING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE ABERDEEN AREA AND WEB CAMS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING IT AS WELL AS EVIDENCED BY DROPLETS ON
LENSES. RADAR IS TAKING ON MORE OF A DRIZZLE LOOK AS WELL. RAP
SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUPPORT THIS WITH A DEEP MOIST LAYER IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND DRYING ALOFT. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS
MAY GO ON FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT LEAST. UPDATED FORECAST AND
GRIDS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THIS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE TREND IN MODELS NOW IS TO BACK OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST INTO MN. THE EC ODDLY
ENOUGH HAS FLIP FLOPPED THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE
SEEING SNOW AMOUNTS DROP IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. WHATS TROUBLING
IS THAT MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE NAM HAVING A MORE CLOSED LOW
AT 500MB AND THE EC/GFS SHOWING A MORE OPEN WAVE. DEFORMATION
ZONES SHOWING UP IN DIFFERENT REGIONS AS WELL. REGARDLESS...ALL
MODELS STILL SHOWING A SWATH OF SNOW MOVING OVER THE CURRENT
WARNING AREA...BUT FEEL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE A BIT
TOO HIGH SO HAVE LOWERED A BIT MORE INTO THE 4 TO 7 RANGE.
DOWNGRADED CLARK COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY AS I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE. THINGS MAY BE SLOWING DOWN A
TAD AS WELL...SO MORNING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS. LATEST HRRR RUN DOESNT SHOW ANYTHING IN THE CWA YET EVEN
AT 20Z. STILL SOME WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST AS EVENT UNFOLDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ENDING TIMES OF THE HAZARDS AS WELL...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 12Z
FRIDAY AND THE WARNING AT 15Z FRIDAY.
AFTER THIS STORM EXITS ON FRIDAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
WARM UP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS ON SATURDAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
WILL SEE HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO WHOEVER STILL HAS
SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SATURDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THAT MELT OFF
BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. KEPT THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MUCH DRIER FORECAST.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD...THOUGH
THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
SOMEWHAT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN REGIME CHANGES. STILL THE CASE
FOR WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXISTS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUE AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
FOG AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE DROPPED ALL SITES TO IFR
THIS MORNING. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT KPIR VSBY TO IMPROVE WHEN WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE SNOW BANDS. KATY LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED BY THE SNOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CLARK-DAY-ROBERTS-SPINK.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR TRAVERSE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
533 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
GETTING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE ABERDEEN AREA AND WEB CAMS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING IT AS WELL AS EVIDENCED BY DROPLETS ON
LENSES. RADAR IS TAKING ON MORE OF A DRIZZLE LOOK AS WELL. RAP
SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUPPORT THIS WITH A DEEP MOIST LAYER IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND DRYING ALOFT. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS
MAY GO ON FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT LEAST. UPDATED FORECAST AND
GRIDS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THIS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE TREND IN MODELS NOW IS TO BACK OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST INTO MN. THE EC ODDLY
ENOUGH HAS FLIP FLOPPED THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE
SEEING SNOW AMOUNTS DROP IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. WHATS TROUBLING
IS THAT MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE NAM HAVING A MORE CLOSED LOW
AT 500MB AND THE EC/GFS SHOWING A MORE OPEN WAVE. DEFORMATION
ZONES SHOWING UP IN DIFFERENT REGIONS AS WELL. REGARDLESS...ALL
MODELS STILL SHOWING A SWATH OF SNOW MOVING OVER THE CURRENT
WARNING AREA...BUT FEEL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE A BIT
TOO HIGH SO HAVE LOWERED A BIT MORE INTO THE 4 TO 7 RANGE.
DOWNGRADED CLARK COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY AS I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE. THINGS MAY BE SLOWING DOWN A
TAD AS WELL...SO MORNING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS. LATEST HRRR RUN DOESNT SHOW ANYTHING IN THE CWA YET EVEN
AT 20Z. STILL SOME WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST AS EVENT UNFOLDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ENDING TIMES OF THE HAZARDS AS WELL...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 12Z
FRIDAY AND THE WARNING AT 15Z FRIDAY.
AFTER THIS STORM EXITS ON FRIDAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
WARM UP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS ON SATURDAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
WILL SEE HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO WHOEVER STILL HAS
SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SATURDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THAT MELT OFF
BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. KEPT THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MUCH DRIER FORECAST.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD...THOUGH
THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
SOMEWHAT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN REGIME CHANGES. STILL THE CASE
FOR WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXISTS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUE AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON...WITH VFR VSBYS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS
ACROSS THE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SNOW. KATY LOOKS TO BE THE
ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED BY THE SNOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CLARK-DAY-ROBERTS-SPINK.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR TRAVERSE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
358 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE TREND IN MODELS NOW IS TO BACK OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND PUSH THINGS FURTHER EAST INTO MN. THE EC ODDLY
ENOUGH HAS FLIP FLOPPED THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT IN GENERAL WE ARE
SEEING SNOW AMOUNTS DROP IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. WHATS TROUBLING
IS THAT MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE NAM HAVING A MORE CLOSED LOW
AT 500MB AND THE EC/GFS SHOWING A MORE OPEN WAVE. DEFORMATION
ZONES SHOWING UP IN DIFFERENT REGIONS AS WELL. REGARDLESS...ALL
MODELS STILL SHOWING A SWATH OF SNOW MOVING OVER THE CURRENT
WARNING AREA...BUT FEEL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE A BIT
TOO HIGH SO HAVE LOWERED A BIT MORE INTO THE 4 TO 7 RANGE.
DOWNGRADED CLARK COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY AS I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE. THINGS MAY BE SLOWING DOWN A
TAD AS WELL...SO MORNING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS. LATEST HRRR RUN DOESNT SHOW ANYTHING IN THE CWA YET EVEN
AT 20Z. STILL SOME WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST AS EVENT UNFOLDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
ENDING TIMES OF THE HAZARDS AS WELL...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 12Z
FRIDAY AND THE WARNING AT 15Z FRIDAY.
AFTER THIS STORM EXITS ON FRIDAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
WARM UP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS ON SATURDAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
WILL SEE HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S...SO WHOEVER STILL HAS
SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND BY SATURDAY WILL SEE MOST OF THAT MELT OFF
BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PERIOD OPENS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. KEPT THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY
OF A MUCH DRIER FORECAST.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD...THOUGH
THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
SOMEWHAT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN REGIME CHANGES. STILL THE CASE
FOR WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXISTS WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUE AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON...WITH VFR VSBYS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS
ACROSS THE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SNOW. KATY LOOKS TO BE THE
ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED BY THE SNOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CLARK-DAY-ROBERTS-SPINK.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR TRAVERSE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
606 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT CLOUD
COVER, INCREASING THE PRE-MIDNIGHT CLOUDS JUST A BIT NORTH AND
EAST BEFORE TAKING THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
EDGE OF A WIDE BAND OF STRATOCU HAS DROPPED INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LATEST RUC 1000-850MB RH
PROGS OVERNIGHT, SHOW THIS MOISTURE POSSIBLY SINKING DEEPER INTO
OUR FA AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER, BELIEVE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD TAKE A TOLL ON THE
CLOUDS BY LATE EVENING, WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING TOWARD
MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NO CHANGE TO ANY OTHER PARTS OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1244 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FIRST HOWEVER...SOME ISOL TO
SCT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IN FACT...MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH SOME DEGREE OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE 00Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME. AFT 06Z HOWEVER...PRE FRONTAL IMPACT WILL HONE IN ON
THE MID STATE AND STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z. LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST AFT 12Z WITH THE ACTIVITY
ENDING AT THE CSV AREA AROUND 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON HOLD FOR NOW ACROSS THE MID STATE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW CAP EROSION THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE
APPEARS TO WANT TO KICK IN TOWARD 00Z. SO...STILL EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. LATEST HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LESS IN THE
WAY OF AFT COVERAGE. GFS 12Z DATA IS COMPARATIVELY DRIER THAN THE
06Z RUN.
OTW...WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO AS CURRENT VALUES OUTPACE
GUIDANCE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
OTW...STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. ALTHOUGH GFS MODEL MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH TODAYS QPF TOTAL IN THE NW. MAY LOWER
POPS LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT A FEW MORE THINGS
FIRST. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...NO CHANGES TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR MID TN AIRPORTS TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MAY SPAWN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. NAM/HRRR
SHOWING VERY STRONG LIFT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BUT NSSL WRF
WHICH PERFORMED VERY WELL OVERNIGHT IS DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP VCTS MENTION AT CKV/BNA IN THE 16-22Z TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH SPEEDS 12-17 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. SQUALL
LINE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS ALL 3 AIRPORTS TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD WITH TSRA AND ASSOCIATED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SO CONCENTRATED
MORE ON THE SHORTER RANGE. CURRENTLY BAND OF SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY
FORMING SHORT LINES WITHIN EXTENDS FROM BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY
DOWN THROUGH HARTSVILLE...SPARTA AND INTO THE CROSSVILLE AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED JUST AHEAD OF 850 MBAR DEWPOINT AXIS
THAT RUNS FROM SAINT LOUIS DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT 07Z.
50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET HAS CONTINUED TO PUNCH NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO THE SAINT LOUIS AREA WITH AN EASTERN LOBE
OF LESSER SPEEDS DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD HAVE THEM EXITING MY CWA
BY 12Z.
07Z WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH
LEAD SHORT WAVE ALREADY EJECTING OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND JUST
NOW ENTERING WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS SHOULD CRANK THINGS UP FROM
ARKANSAS ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO
LATER THIS MORNING. I EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORM STRUNG OUT
FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS...ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THEN UP ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER BY MID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SAGGING DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
I`VE TRIMMED POPS BACK FOR TODAY EXCEPT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
KENTUCKY BORDER. WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY
TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 00Z TODAY AND INTO
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BY 06Z TONIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPING FROM EASTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS AND THEN ALIGN
ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID-EVENING (02Z-03Z). SQUALL LINE THEN
WORKS EAST TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM TIME
FRAME. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE FRIDAY MORNING ENDING
SEVERE THREAT. SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY. DRY SATURDAY BUT RAIN MOVES BACK IN ON SUNDAY AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSHES
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID STATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH TAKES CONTROL NEXT WEEK KEEPING
A COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS THIS WAY LATTER PART OF WORK
WEEK.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1107 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON HOLD FOR NOW ACROSS THE MID STATE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW CAP EROSION THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE
APPEARS TO WANT TO KICK IN TOWARD 00Z. SO...STILL EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AREAS. LATEST HRRR IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LESS IN THE
WAY OF AFT COVERAGE. GFS 12Z DATA IS COMPARATIVELY DRIER THAN THE
06Z RUN.
OTW...WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO AS CURRENT VALUES OUTPACE
GUIDANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
OTW...STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TODAY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS. ALTHOUGH GFS MODEL MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH TODAYS QPF TOTAL IN THE NW. MAY LOWER
POPS LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT A FEW MORE THINGS
FIRST. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...NO CHANGES TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR MID TN AIRPORTS TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MAY SPAWN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. NAM/HRRR
SHOWING VERY STRONG LIFT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BUT NSSL WRF
WHICH PERFORMED VERY WELL OVERNIGHT IS DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP VCTS MENTION AT CKV/BNA IN THE 16-22Z TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH SPEEDS 12-17 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. SQUALL
LINE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS ALL 3 AIRPORTS TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD WITH TSRA AND ASSOCIATED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SO CONCENTRATED
MORE ON THE SHORTER RANGE. CURRENTLY BAND OF SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY
FORMING SHORT LINES WITHIN EXTENDS FROM BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY
DOWN THROUGH HARTSVILLE...SPARTA AND INTO THE CROSSVILLE AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED JUST AHEAD OF 850 MBAR DEWPOINT AXIS
THAT RUNS FROM SAINT LOUIS DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT 07Z.
50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET HAS CONTINUED TO PUNCH NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO THE SAINT LOUIS AREA WITH AN EASTERN LOBE
OF LESSER SPEEDS DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD HAVE THEM EXITING MY CWA
BY 12Z.
07Z WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH
LEAD SHORT WAVE ALREADY EJECTING OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND JUST
NOW ENTERING WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS SHOULD CRANK THINGS UP FROM
ARKANSAS ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO
LATER THIS MORNING. I EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORM STRUNG OUT
FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS...ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THEN UP ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER BY MID DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SAGGING DOWN THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
I`VE TRIMMED POPS BACK FOR TODAY EXCEPT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
KENTUCKY BORDER. WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY
TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 00Z TODAY AND INTO
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BY 06Z TONIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPING FROM EASTERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS AND THEN ALIGN
ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID-EVENING (02Z-03Z). SQUALL LINE THEN
WORKS EAST TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM TIME
FRAME. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE FRIDAY MORNING ENDING
SEVERE THREAT. SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY. DRY SATURDAY BUT RAIN MOVES BACK IN ON SUNDAY AS
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSHES
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID STATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH TAKES CONTROL NEXT WEEK KEEPING
A COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS THIS WAY LATTER PART OF WORK
WEEK.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
506 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO MISSOURI JUST NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A MAJORITY OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING AS THE RESULT OF A MATURE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN
MISSOURI. MEANWHILE...FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH PERHAPS A FEW WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN
THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVEN/T SHOWN MUCH ACTIVITY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI THUS FAR. ALSO...SHORT TERM MODELS DIDN/T
INITIALIZE THE OVERNIGHT QPF TOO WELL IN LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUN
GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND THINK ITS A BIT OVERDONE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS UNDER A CAPPING INVERSION. OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS INDICATE A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT...SPREADING
60-100 DM 500 MB MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCED BY A 100KT 250 MB UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK...STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT
OR ABOVE 7 C/KM...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES INITIALLY BETWEEN
1500-2500 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -6 TO -8...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN
40-55 KTS...0-1 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200-300
M2/S2...FAVORABLE LCL/S AND SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR
SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
OCCUR IN THE FORM OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SPREAD
TOWARDS EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE AMOUNT OF DISCRETE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CAPPING INVERSION MAY BE INITIALLY PRESENT
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER OF ANY DISCRETE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE OZARKS EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (QLCS`S) ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. REGARDLESS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT WITH A TORNADIC
THREAT POSSIBLE WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCLUDING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. WILL
HIGHLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MEANWHILE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OF SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR TODAY/TONIGHT GIVEN CURRENT/SHORT TERM TRENDS. DAY
SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS FOR CONSIDERATION OF AN
ADVISORY IF NEEDED LATER TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS REMAIN
IN ACCEPTABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE
ALSO KEPT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
MVFR DECK WAS LIFTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL MS AT 07Z... WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTH INTO MEM AND OTHER MIDSOUTH TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z.
NAM AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SHOW TSRA INTO THE JBR AREA TOWARD
12Z. HRRR MODEL SHOWS A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE
THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL...BUT PREFER THE HRRR SOLUTION
GIVEN THE BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. BETTER TSRA CHANCES APPEAR IN
ORDER IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME.
FOR THE LATE EVENING... STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE APPEARS WILL
ARRIVE IN MEM NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO THE LATE OVERNIGHT OUTBOUND
PUSH. IN THE INTERIM... LOW CHANCES OF DISCRETE TSRA POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR THE LATE EVENING MEM ARRIVALS.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 80 61 70 45 / 70 90 10 0
MKL 78 62 69 40 / 50 90 10 0
JBR 78 55 64 40 / 80 90 10 0
TUP 80 63 74 43 / 40 90 40 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING.
THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS EASTERN AR AND WEST
TN IS JUST ABOUT READY TO EXIT INTO KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TN. THIS
AS A RESULT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE 00Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY EAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATER TONIGHT WITH MAINLY A HAIL
THREAT...MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS OTRW FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014/
TONS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY TO HELP FOCUS LIFT. THE
CURRENT RADAR IS INDICATIVE OF THE UNFOCUSED SURFACE LIFT SHOWING
MANY SMALL SHOWERS BUT NOTHING SUSTAINED FOR MORE THAN A FEW
VOLUME SCANS. A 35-40 LLJ WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON HELPING
TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT BUT SURFACE FOCUS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS/MOVES INTO THE REGION. BY 06Z...WE SHOULD SEE A MORE
RESPECTABLE 40-50KT LLJ...BUT THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE THE
LACKING INGREDIENT.
ADDITIONAL MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TOMORROW AS A DEEP TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE MAIN
TROUGH MAINTAINS A NEUTRAL TILT...ALTHOUGH AN ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE
THAT SMALLER IMPULSES ATTAINING A NEGATIVE TILT ROTATING AROUND
THE TROUGH COULD BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS.
NEVERTHELESS...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD HELP VENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP HELPING TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS. MODEL INSTABILITY /ON
THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 CAPE IN EAST ARKANSAS/ BY MIDDAY TOMORROW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GET STORMS DEVELOPING BY 18Z IF NOT
EARLIER. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION GETS GOING OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING...THAT INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE REALIZED.
SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND...TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING
ARE ALL THREATS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
TIMING OF THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRICKY
AS STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR
BY MIDDAY AND AFTER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IRREGARDLESS OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS LIKELY.
DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY MODE OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE LINE...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL WOULD BE A
SECONDARY THREAT.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...AND POSSIBLY THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL EXCEEDING TWO INCHES. FLOODING AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY...BUT AS OF NOW GUIDANCE
HAS SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 20-23 MPH...SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY BUT AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S SATURDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN LOW...GENERALLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER MONDAY
AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING IN A RE ENFORCING SHOT OF DIRER AIR...BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
MVFR DECK WAS LIFTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL MS AT 07Z... WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTH INTO MEM AND OTHER MIDSOUTH TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z.
NAM AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SHOW TSRA INTO THE JBR AREA TOWARD
12Z. HRRR MODEL SHOWS A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE
THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL...BUT PREFER THE HRRR SOLUTION
GIVEN THE BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. BETTER TSRA CHANCES APPEAR IN
ORDER IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME.
FOR THE LATE EVENING... STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE APPEARS WILL
ARRIVE IN MEM NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO THE LATE OVERNIGHT OUTBOUND
PUSH. IN THE INTERIM... LOW CHANCES OF DISCRETE TSRA POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR THE LATE EVENING MEM ARRIVALS.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 61 70 43 65 / 90 10 0 0
MKL 61 69 39 64 / 90 20 0 0
JBR 56 65 39 64 / 90 10 0 0
TUP 63 74 42 66 / 90 30 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
139 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
WHO KNEW THERE COULD BE SO MUCH WEATHER WITH NO PRECIPITATION?
INSTEAD OF TRYING TO GET CUTE, WE JUST BLANKETED THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE IN A WIND ADVISORY AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8
PM. HOWEVER, THE WORST WINDS AND DUST WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE 7 PM.
MEANWHILE, THERE IS ACTUALLY PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES. IN FACT, AT LAST OBSERVATION, CLAYTON REPORTED MODERATE
RAIN AT 40 F. THIS RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS NORTH
OF AN ADRIAN TO MIAMI LINE.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
AVIATION...
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON. AWW WILL BE
IN EFFECT AT KAMA 20Z-01Z. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
BLDU, WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO AT LEAST THE LOW-END MVFR RANGE.
HOWEVER, IFR OR EVEN LOWER VSBYS CAN`T BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY
20Z-23Z.
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA AT KDHT 20Z-23Z AND LOW CONFIDENCE
AT KGUY 21Z-00Z.
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT IS MODERATE TO HIGH. THERE COULD
EVEN BE SOME BLDU BEHIND THE FRONT AT KDHT AND KGUY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CONFIDENCE ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT KDHT AND KGUY IS MODERATE.
JACKSON
UPDATE...
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
BOOTLEG AND HEREFORD HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED ADVISORY CRITERIA. DON`T
THINK WE`LL SEE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA, BUT THERE
COULD BE A ROGUE GUST OR TWO UP TO 60 MPH IF MIXING TAPS INTO THE
MID-LEVEL JET. WE MAY ALSO END UP HAVING TO ISSUE A SHORT-FUSE BLOWING
DUST ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HEREFORD AWOS IS ALREADY OBSERVING
A VISIBILITY OF 5 SM, BUT WE`LL HOLD OFF TO SEE IF VISIBILITIES DROP
TO A MILE OR LESS. HOWEVER, IT IS CONCERNING THAT THE MID-LEVEL JET
WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD, WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD PROXY FOR THE MOST
CONCENTRATED DUST REGIONS.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA, AND HAS LOWERED
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO RETREAT THIS FRONT NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY BY 3 PM. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RAP VERY CLOSELY FOR
THIS UPDATE AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THEREFORE, AS THIS FRONT RETREATS, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT, WINDS SPEEDS MAY
ACTUALLY BRIEFLY APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE OF ANY BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IS LOW AT THIS POINT,
BUT WE`LL WATCH THIS CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST BACK THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONG OUT THE NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SOURCE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, SO IT`S VERY POSSIBLE MORE BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO
ALSO FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE`VE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY TO LOWER THEM
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY.
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT, WE MAY SEE A 35 TO 40 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON! ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES JUST BEFORE NOON, BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH
THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, SO WE`VE SPREAD RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A HARTLEY TO BEAVER LINE. IF THERE`S
ANY DUST INVOLVED, A LOT OF FOLKS MAY END UP WITH THOSE NASTY
MUD BALLS ON THEIR CARS. WE ALSO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD, BUT ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
JACKSON
FIRE WEATHER...
THE FRONTAL INTRUSION HAS SLIGHTLY LOWERED FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
FIRE WEATHER, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE UP TO 4 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER GOOD THING THIS FRONT HAS BROUGHT
IS DECENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THESE RECOVERIES MAY EVER SO SLIGHTLY
NEGATE THE FIRE THREAT TODAY, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EXPECTED
WEATHER AND STATE OF THE FUELS MAKE IT TOUGH TO DOWNPLAY THE THREAT.
GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE WEATHER, FUEL LOADING, AND FUEL MOISTURE,
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT TODAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE ENVIRONMENT
CAPABLE OF A FIRE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. ANOTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE COLD FRONT TIMING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
TODAY/S ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS HAS PUSHED
SOUTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN RIVER AND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT IS NOW
APPROACHING AMARILLO. RAP SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO SHOW THIS EARLY MORNING
FRONTAL ADVANCEMENT...BUT THEN MIX THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDER
AIRMASS NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES. IF THE FRONT REMAINS
FURTHER SOUTH AND AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...CLEARLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE IMPACTED.
AVIATION...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY AND
KDHT WILL IMPROVE BY THE 15-16Z TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE FOR
WINDS AND CIGS AT KAMA IS LOW DUE TO CLOSE APPROACH AND MORNING
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND/OR MIX
NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 KT BY MIDDAY. THESE WINDS MAY ADVECT IN
REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING DUST AND/OR GUSTS THAT MAY THREATEN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY VEER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. IN ALL...
LOW CONFIDENCE TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN DYNAMIC WEATHER THIS PERIOD...
INCLUDING A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SHOWERS APPROACHING THE
KGUY AND KDHT TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LIES VERY NEAR THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. BY EARLY THIS EVENING IT SHOULD
BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION NOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND IT WILL PASS OVER AND NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.
THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RAIN WILL BE HEAVY.
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES A
LARGER TROUGH WILL GET CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ONE COULD ARGUE TO ADD
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OF THEM OUT FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THESE
FIRST COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES PAN OUT.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY TODAY...WITH THE
MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN ADVANCE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THE STORM SYSTEM PASSING THE
PLAINS TODAY IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND CONFIGURATION TO THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH PAST HIGH-IMPACT FIRE EPISODES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORTUNATELY...A RELATIVELY QUICK APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
AND AN EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD
DICTATE THAT THE MOST INTENSE FIRE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH...PROXIMITY...AND FIRE FAVORABLE CHARACTER
OF TODAY/S SYSTEM...A HIGH SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MITIGATED IN WAKE OF TODAY/S SYSTEM
BY RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF
SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
KS/JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1256 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.AVIATION...
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON. AWW WILL BE
IN EFFECT AT KAMA 20Z-01Z. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
BLDU, WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO AT LEAST THE LOW-END MVFR RANGE.
HOWEVER, IFR OR EVEN LOWER VSBYS CAN`T BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY
20Z-23Z.
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF -SHRA AT KDHT 20Z-23Z AND LOW CONFIDENCE
AT KGUY 21Z-00Z.
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT IS MODERATE TO HIGH. THERE COULD
EVEN BE SOME BLDU BEHIND THE FRONT AT KDHT AND KGUY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CONFIDENCE ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT KDHT AND KGUY IS MODERATE.
JACKSON
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
BOOTLEG AND HEREFORD HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED ADVISORY CRITERIA. DON`T
THINK WE`LL SEE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA, BUT THERE
COULD BE A ROGUE GUST OR TWO UP TO 60 MPH IF MIXING TAPS INTO THE
MID-LEVEL JET. WE MAY ALSO END UP HAVING TO ISSUE A SHORT-FUSE BLOWING
DUST ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HEREFORD AWOS IS ALREADY OBSERVING
A VISIBILITY OF 5 SM, BUT WE`LL HOLD OFF TO SEE IF VISIBILITIES DROP
TO A MILE OR LESS. HOWEVER, IT IS CONCERNING THAT THE MID-LEVEL JET
WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD, WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD PROXY FOR THE MOST
CONCENTRATED DUST REGIONS.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA, AND HAS LOWERED
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO RETREAT THIS FRONT NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY BY 3 PM. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RAP VERY CLOSELY FOR
THIS UPDATE AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THEREFORE, AS THIS FRONT RETREATS, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT, WINDS SPEEDS MAY
ACTUALLY BRIEFLY APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE OF ANY BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IS LOW AT THIS POINT,
BUT WE`LL WATCH THIS CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST BACK THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONG OUT THE NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SOURCE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, SO IT`S VERY POSSIBLE MORE BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO
ALSO FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE`VE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY TO LOWER THEM
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY.
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT, WE MAY SEE A 35 TO 40 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON! ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES JUST BEFORE NOON, BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH
THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, SO WE`VE SPREAD RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A HARTLEY TO BEAVER LINE. IF THERE`S
ANY DUST INVOLVED, A LOT OF FOLKS MAY END UP WITH THOSE NASTY
MUD BALLS ON THEIR CARS. WE ALSO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD, BUT ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
JACKSON
FIRE WEATHER...
THE FRONTAL INTRUSION HAS SLIGHTLY LOWERED FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
FIRE WEATHER, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE UP TO 4 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER GOOD THING THIS FRONT HAS BROUGHT
IS DECENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THESE RECOVERIES MAY EVER SO SLIGHTLY
NEGATE THE FIRE THREAT TODAY, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EXPECTED
WEATHER AND STATE OF THE FUELS MAKE IT TOUGH TO DOWNPLAY THE THREAT.
GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE WEATHER, FUEL LOADING, AND FUEL MOISTURE,
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT TODAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE ENVIRONMENT
CAPABLE OF A FIRE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. ANOTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE COLD FRONT TIMING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
TODAY/S ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS HAS PUSHED
SOUTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN RIVER AND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT IS NOW
APPROACHING AMARILLO. RAP SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO SHOW THIS EARLY MORNING
FRONTAL ADVANCEMENT...BUT THEN MIX THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDER
AIRMASS NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES. IF THE FRONT REMAINS
FURTHER SOUTH AND AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...CLEARLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE IMPACTED.
AVIATION...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY AND
KDHT WILL IMPROVE BY THE 15-16Z TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE FOR
WINDS AND CIGS AT KAMA IS LOW DUE TO CLOSE APPROACH AND MORNING
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND/OR MIX
NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 KT BY MIDDAY. THESE WINDS MAY ADVECT IN
REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING DUST AND/OR GUSTS THAT MAY THREATEN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY VEER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. IN ALL...
LOW CONFIDENCE TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN DYNAMIC WEATHER THIS PERIOD...
INCLUDING A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SHOWERS APPROACHING THE
KGUY AND KDHT TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LIES VERY NEAR THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. BY EARLY THIS EVENING IT SHOULD
BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION NOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND IT WILL PASS OVER AND NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.
THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RAIN WILL BE HEAVY.
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES A
LARGER TROUGH WILL GET CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ONE COULD ARGUE TO ADD
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OF THEM OUT FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THESE
FIRST COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES PAN OUT.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY TODAY...WITH THE
MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN ADVANCE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THE STORM SYSTEM PASSING THE
PLAINS TODAY IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND CONFIGURATION TO THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH PAST HIGH-IMPACT FIRE EPISODES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORTUNATELY...A RELATIVELY QUICK APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
AND AN EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD
DICTATE THAT THE MOST INTENSE FIRE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH...PROXIMITY...AND FIRE FAVORABLE CHARACTER
OF TODAY/S SYSTEM...A HIGH SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MITIGATED IN WAKE OF TODAY/S SYSTEM
BY RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
KS/JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1057 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA, AND HAS LOWERED
FORECAST CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO RETREAT THIS FRONT NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY BY 3 PM. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RAP VERY CLOSELY FOR
THIS UPDATE AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. THEREFORE, AS THIS FRONT RETREATS, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT, WINDS SPEEDS MAY
ACTUALLY BRIEFLY APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE OF ANY BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IS LOW AT THIS POINT,
BUT WE`LL WATCH THIS CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST BACK THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONG OUT THE NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SOURCE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, SO IT`S VERY POSSIBLE MORE BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO
ALSO FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
WE`VE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY TO LOWER THEM
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THEY`LL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL DAY.
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT, WE MAY SEE A 35 TO 40 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON! ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES JUST BEFORE NOON, BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH
THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, SO WE`VE SPREAD RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A HARTLEY TO BEAVER LINE. IF THERE`S
ANY DUST INVOLVED, A LOT OF FOLKS MAY END UP WITH THOSE NASTY
MUD BALLS ON THEIR CARS. WE ALSO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD, BUT ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
JACKSON
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FRONTAL INTRUSION HAS SLIGHTLY LOWERED FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
FIRE WEATHER, BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE UP TO 4 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER GOOD THING THIS FRONT HAS BROUGHT
IS DECENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 50 PERCENT. THESE RECOVERIES MAY EVER SO SLIGHTLY
NEGATE THE FIRE THREAT TODAY, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EXPECTED
WEATHER AND STATE OF THE FUELS MAKE IT TOUGH TO DOWNPLAY THE THREAT.
GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE WEATHER, FUEL LOADING, AND FUEL MOISTURE,
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT TODAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE ENVIRONMENT
CAPABLE OF A FIRE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. ANOTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE COLD FRONT TIMING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
UPDATE...
TODAY/S ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS HAS PUSHED
SOUTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN RIVER AND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT IS NOW
APPROACHING AMARILLO. RAP SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO SHOW THIS EARLY MORNING
FRONTAL ADVANCEMENT...BUT THEN MIX THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDER
AIRMASS NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES. IF THE FRONT REMAINS
FURTHER SOUTH AND AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...CLEARLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE IMPACTED.
AVIATION...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY AND
KDHT WILL IMPROVE BY THE 15-16Z TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE FOR
WINDS AND CIGS AT KAMA IS LOW DUE TO CLOSE APPROACH AND MORNING
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND/OR MIX
NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 KT BY MIDDAY. THESE WINDS MAY ADVECT IN
REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING DUST AND/OR GUSTS THAT MAY THREATEN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY VEER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. IN ALL...
LOW CONFIDENCE TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN DYNAMIC WEATHER THIS PERIOD...
INCLUDING A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SHOWERS APPROACHING THE
KGUY AND KDHT TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LIES VERY NEAR THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. BY EARLY THIS EVENING IT SHOULD
BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION NOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND IT WILL PASS OVER AND NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.
THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RAIN WILL BE HEAVY.
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES A
LARGER TROUGH WILL GET CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ONE COULD ARGUE TO ADD
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OF THEM OUT FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THESE
FIRST COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES PAN OUT.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY TODAY...WITH THE
MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN ADVANCE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THE STORM SYSTEM PASSING THE
PLAINS TODAY IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND CONFIGURATION TO THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH PAST HIGH-IMPACT FIRE EPISODES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORTUNATELY...A RELATIVELY QUICK APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
AND AN EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD
DICTATE THAT THE MOST INTENSE FIRE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH...PROXIMITY...AND FIRE FAVORABLE CHARACTER
OF TODAY/S SYSTEM...A HIGH SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MITIGATED IN WAKE OF TODAY/S SYSTEM
BY RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
KS/JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
650 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
TODAY/S ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS HAS PUSHED
SOUTH TOWARD THE CANADIAN RIVER AND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT IS NOW
APPROACHING AMARILLO. RAP SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO SHOW THIS EARLY MORNING
FRONTAL ADVANCEMENT...BUT THEN MIX THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLDER
AIRMASS NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES. IF THE FRONT REMAINS
FURTHER SOUTH AND AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...CLEARLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE IMPACTED.
&&
.AVIATION...
POST FRONTAL STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KGUY AND
KDHT WILL IMPROVE BY THE 15-16Z TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE FOR
WINDS AND CIGS AT KAMA IS LOW DUE TO CLOSE APPROACH AND MORNING
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND/OR MIX
NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 KT BY MIDDAY. THESE WINDS MAY ADVECT IN
REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING DUST AND/OR GUSTS THAT MAY THREATEN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AS THEY VEER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. IN ALL...
LOW CONFIDENCE TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN DYNAMIC WEATHER THIS PERIOD...
INCLUDING A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SHOWERS APPROACHING THE
KGUY AND KDHT TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT NOW LIES VERY NEAR THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. BY EARLY THIS EVENING IT SHOULD
BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION NOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND IT WILL PASS OVER AND NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...ESPECIALLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.
THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RAIN WILL BE HEAVY.
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES A
LARGER TROUGH WILL GET CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ONE COULD ARGUE TO ADD
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OF THEM OUT FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THESE
FIRST COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES PAN OUT.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY TODAY...WITH THE
MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN ADVANCE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THE STORM SYSTEM PASSING THE
PLAINS TODAY IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND CONFIGURATION TO THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH PAST HIGH-IMPACT FIRE EPISODES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORTUNATELY...A RELATIVELY QUICK APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT
AND AN EASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD
DICTATE THAT THE MOST INTENSE FIRE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE
FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH...PROXIMITY...AND FIRE FAVORABLE CHARACTER
OF TODAY/S SYSTEM...A HIGH SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MITIGATED IN WAKE OF TODAY/S SYSTEM
BY RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...POTTER...
RANDALL...WHEELER.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
10/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1134 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
PRECIP IS ISOLATED AT BEST FROM THE FAR SW VA COUNTIES ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA. WILL SEE SAME THROUGH 1-2 AM BEFORE EROSION OF
MOISTURE FROM NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT DRIES THINGS OUT. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AS THE FRONT MOVES BY BUT WILL STAY UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING MILDER THAN FORECAST...AND GIVEN A LAG IN COLDER
AIR UPSTREAM BEHIND THE FRONT...RAISED TEMPS THROUGH EARLY
OVERNIGHT. STILL BY MORNING IT SHOULD BE IN 30S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE LOWER 40S ROANOKE...AND UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.
APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL ALSO CLEAR SKIES WITH LINGERING
UPSLOPE OVER THE WV MTNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON...
MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM OHIO TO LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
LOCAL MODELS BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 5PM. HRRR GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS AROUND 300 J/KG AT 19Z/3PM.
SURFACE AND 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 850 MB WINDS ARE INITIALLY IN THE 40
TO 50 KNOT RANGE BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO 15 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. DEW POINTS LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY
MIDNIGHT WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE
DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAD PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 10 MB IN 6 HOURS THROUGH 12Z/8AM
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS BUT EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 229 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND MILD AND DRY. FOLLOWING A COOL START WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
PEAKING NEAR NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
CLOSED LOW...WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP GENERATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY...RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE WITH GULF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND OVER LINGERING
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING
INSITU WEDGE WILL KEEP MONDAY WET AND GLOOMY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND INSITU WEDGE EASTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AREAS TO
THE FAR WEST WILL HAVE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN BUT COULD SEE THE BULK
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS FROM THE LOW TRACKING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WEST WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50
OF AN INCH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRESSURE FALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WOULD SUGGEST WEDGE WILL ERODE BY MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY REDUCE THESE PRESSURE FALL AND KEEP THE WEDGE
OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS WEDGE REMAINS...LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR RAIN ENTERING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
HANGING ON ALL DAY MONDAY. POPS CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST AS BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY EXITS EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE NOT GIVING UP ON WINTER JUST YET. THEY ARE BRINGING
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF INTO A CLOSED
LOW...ACROSS THE GULF STATES TUESDAY THEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR A COLD RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECM KEEPS BULK...IF NOT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND THEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS HAPPENS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE WITH
IT...WITH A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID
COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT WEDNESDAY...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE P-TYPE. RIGHT
NOW...TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARY LAYER ARE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ARE REDUCED TO WESTERN SLOPES FOLLOWING
THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZES...DRIZZLE- PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
THE LIKELY P-TYPE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE
A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS
ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS IMPACT LWB/BLF FOR A SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN
NOW AND 01Z AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SS TO
WNW...AND CIGS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLF
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT BLF WILL BE VFR WITH
FROPA...WITH MOISTURE DIMINISHING AFTER 05Z.
APPEARS THAT BCB AND ROA MAY SEE A LIGHT SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT TAF MENTION. CIGS WILL BE VFR EAST OF THE UPSLOPE SE WV
MTNS. FROPA AT BCB/ROA WILL BE IN THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME...REACHING
LYH/DAN 06Z GIVE OR TAKE 1 HOUR.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL START TO TAPER OFF
SATURDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.
THIS HIGH SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING MOVES NORTH INTO THE TN
VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY...SPREADING RAIN AND LOWER CIGS BACK
INTO THE AREA.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
738 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THREAT OF SVR HAS DIMINSHED ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT AS LINE STARTING TO MOVE INTO SE WV ATTM.
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OUT EAST HAS NOT TRANSPIRED DESPITE
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING SOME DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING SOME WEAK FORMATION SOUTH
OF LYH...BUT AS EVENING WEARS ON WILL NOT SEE MUCH COVERGAGE. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD LEAVING LIKELY EARLY IN THE FAR WEST
THEN DROPPING TO LOW CHANCE. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON...
MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM OHIO TO LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
LOCAL MODELS BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 5PM. HRRR GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS AROUND 300 J/KG AT 19Z/3PM.
SURFACE AND 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 850 MB WINDS ARE INITIALLY IN THE 40
TO 50 KNOT RANGE BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO 15 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. DEW POINTS LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY
MIDNIGHT WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE
DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAD PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 10 MB IN 6 HOURS THROUGH 12Z/8AM
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS BUT EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 229 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND MILD AND DRY. FOLLOWING A COOL START WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
PEAKING NEAR NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
CLOSED LOW...WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP GENERATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY...RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE WITH GULF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND OVER LINGERING
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING
INSITU WEDGE WILL KEEP MONDAY WET AND GLOOMY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND INSITU WEDGE EASTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AREAS TO
THE FAR WEST WILL HAVE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN BUT COULD SEE THE BULK
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS FROM THE LOW TRACKING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WEST WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50
OF AN INCH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRESSURE FALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WOULD SUGGEST WEDGE WILL ERODE BY MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY REDUCE THESE PRESSURE FALL AND KEEP THE WEDGE
OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS WEDGE REMAINS...LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR RAIN ENTERING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
HANGING ON ALL DAY MONDAY. POPS CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST AS BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY EXITS EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE NOT GIVING UP ON WINTER JUST YET. THEY ARE BRINGING
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF INTO A CLOSED
LOW...ACROSS THE GULF STATES TUESDAY THEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR A COLD RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECM KEEPS BULK...IF NOT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND THEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS HAPPENS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE WITH
IT...WITH A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID
COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT WEDNESDAY...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE P-TYPE. RIGHT
NOW...TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARY LAYER ARE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ARE REDUCED TO WESTERN SLOPES FOLLOWING
THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZES...DRIZZLE- PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
THE LIKELY P-TYPE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE
A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS
ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS IMPACT LWB/BLF FOR A SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN
NOW AND 01Z AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SS TO
WNW...AND CIGS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLF
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT BLF WILL BE VFR WITH
FROPA...WITH MOISTURE DIMINISHING AFTER 05Z.
APPEARS THAT BCB AND ROA MAY SEE A LIGHT SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT TAF MENTION. CIGS WILL BE VFR EAST OF THE UPSLOPE SE WV
MTNS. FROPA AT BCB/ROA WILL BE IN THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME...REACHING
LYH/DAN 06Z GIVE OR TAKE 1 HOUR.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL START TO TAPER OFF
SATURDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.
THIS HIGH SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING MOVES NORTH INTO THE TN
VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY...SPREADING RAIN AND LOWER CIGS BACK
INTO THE AREA.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
621 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE
POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 614 PM EDT THURSDAY...
WATCHING LINE OF CONVECTION HEADING TOWARD SE WV LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HANDLING THIS WELL...AND SHOULD SEE
IT INVADE GREENBRIER BY 7 PM...AND QUESTION WILL BE IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AS IT PASSES INTO DRIER AIR. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS. MADE UPDATED TO THE
FORECAST TO FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE 19Z HRRR AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
12Z WRF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING IS
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. DEW POINTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S...AND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
PATH NORTH.
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE ARE EXPECTING TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL COME TONIGHT AS A REGION OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS PROGRESSES EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO OUR AREA. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB AT
PINPOINTING WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS THESE TYPES OF SYSTEM SINCE
YESTERDAY. HAVE GIVEN IT CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT FOR PROJECTING THE
TRACK OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS SOLUTION HAS AN ARRIVAL TIME IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AROUND
00Z/8PM...AND A PROGRESSION SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA BY 06Z/2AM. THE ARRIVAL IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD BASED UPON
PROJECTED SPEED AND MOTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER OH/KY.
ISOLATED REMNANTS OF THE CLUSTER MAY DRIFT INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. AS A WHOLE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE AS THE PRIMARY WARM
FRONT CONTINUES HEADING NORTH OF THE AREA.
ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL BE STEAMING NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...AND A
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE COVERAGE EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC PLACES A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH LARGE HAIL A
SECONDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO THOSE OF THIS
MORNING THANKS TO THE WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD. EXPECT A MIX
OF MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE LIMITED CLOUD COVER
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AXIS OF UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES CROSSED THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STILL ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
TOWARD BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
DYNAMICS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF
REACH COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER ILLINOIS BY MONDAY MORNING AND TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POSITIVELY TILTED ON TUESDAY MORNING. 12Z
GFS SHOWED STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE A DRY SLOT COMING IN AROUND THE LOW BUT NOT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. HAVE
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTH OF THIS FRONT SURFACE WINDS WHERE LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING AT KBLF.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER THE
END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WELL AS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
358 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE
POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING IS
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. DEW POINTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS PATH NORTH.
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE ARE EXPECTING TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL COME TONIGHT AS A REGION OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS PROGRESSES EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO OUR AREA. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB AT
PINPOINTING WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS THESE TYPES OF SYSTEM SINCE
YESTERDAY. HAVE GIVEN IT CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT FOR PROJECTING THE
TRACK OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS SOLUTION HAS AN ARRIVAL TIME IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AROUND
00Z/8PM...AND A PROGRESSION SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA BY 06Z/2AM. THE ARRIVAL IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD BASED UPON
PROJECTED SPEED AND MOTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER OH/KY.
ISOLATED REMNANTS OF THE CLUSTER MAY DRIFT INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. AS A WHOLE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE AS THE PRIMARY WARM
FRONT CONTINUES HEADING NORTH OF THE AREA.
ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL BE STEAMING NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...AND A
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE COVERAGE EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC PLACES A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH LARGE HAIL A
SECONDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO THOSE OF THIS
MORNING THANKS TO THE WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD. EXPECT A MIX
OF MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE LIMITED CLOUD COVER
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AXIS OF UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES CROSSED THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STILL ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
TOWARD BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
DYNAMICS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF
REACH COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER ILLINOIS BY MONDAY MORNING AND TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POSITIVELY TILTED ON TUESDAY MORNING. 12Z
GFS SHOWED STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE A DRY SLOT COMING IN AROUND THE LOW BUT NOT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. HAVE
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTH OF THIS FRONT SURFACE WINDS WHERE LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING AT KBLF.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER THE
END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WELL AS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
153 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM RALEIGH NC...NORTHWEST TO EVANSVILLE
INDIANA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRIER AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL REFLECT A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. TWO DISSIPATING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THE
SECOND WERE STILL ACROSS FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WILL BE EXITING SOON. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA...AN INDICATION
THAT THE WARM FRONT WAS STARTING ITS PROGRESSION BACK THROUGH AND
THEN NORTH OF THE REGION. THE AREA OF FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AN STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. NOW THERE WILL BE TREND TOWARDS LESS OR THIN CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND A RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ANTICIPATE A SURGE IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLIER
FORECAST HIGHS.
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DYING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
ALSO...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE BRISTOL VA/TN AREA. THIS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NC BY NOON. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED
HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER BASED UPON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST
INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST 2 MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...ONE OVER KY/TN...THE OTHER
OVER MISSOURI. BOTH MCS FEATURES WERE BEING FED BY A 40-50 KT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WAS TRANSPORTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN TX INTO THE MID MS AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LEADING MCS OVER KY/TN...THIS ACTIVITY POISED TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM
INTO OUR WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE FEATURE CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN PER DRY AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND THE 04Z HRRR FOR QPF THIS
MORNING. THIS YEILDED ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAINFALL WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH UPWARDS OF A THIRD OF AN INCH WEST OF I-77.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST WEST
OF I-77 AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTFLOW FROM MCS OVER MISSOURI
SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT TRIGGERING NEW DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST REACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF 460 THIS EVENING...AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL ENTERTAIN HIGH CHC POPS NORTH OF
460 FOR THIS EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF COVERAGE
TURNS OUT TO BE MORE ORGANIZED.
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT OCCUR.
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS UNDER 10KFT...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
PEA SIZE HAIL REACHING THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD NOT BE AS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
HEAT BURST...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITING FULL SOLAR
INSOLATION. NEVER THE LESS...READINGS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES ELEVATED...MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE REGION. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COMING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SWODY2 HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. WITH OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY...PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MILD CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWERS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY SATURDAY MORNING. TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES DEPENDING OF MODEL CHOICE WITH GFS SLOWER BUT
ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS THE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 8AM SATURDAY WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS MOST OF SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
EXPECTING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AROUND
A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. GFS ALSO SHOWED SOME HEALTHY 6HR MSL
PRESSURE RISES SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. 850 MB
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH SATURDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 70
DEGREES IN THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW SATURDAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FOLLOW HPCGUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS NOT IS A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR WEDGING BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP DEVELOP INSITU CAD. SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BY MONDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW LARGE SCALE OVERRUNNING
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTH OF THIS FRONT SURFACE WINDS WHERE LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING AT KBLF.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER THE
END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WELL AS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
128 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM RALEIGH NC...NORTHWEST TO EVANSVILLE
INDIANA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRIER AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DYING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
ALSO...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE BRISTOL VA/TN AREA. THIS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NC BY NOON. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED
HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER BASED UPON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST
INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST 2 MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...ONE OVER KY/TN...THE OTHER
OVER MISSOURI. BOTH MCS FEATURES WERE BEING FED BY A 40-50 KT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WAS TRANSPORTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN TX INTO THE MID MS AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LEADING MCS OVER KY/TN...THIS ACTIVITY POISED TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM
INTO OUR WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE FEATURE CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN PER DRY AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND THE 04Z HRRR FOR QPF THIS
MORNING. THIS YEILDED ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAINFALL WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH UPWARDS OF A THIRD OF AN INCH WEST OF I-77.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST WEST
OF I-77 AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTFLOW FROM MCS OVER MISSOURI
SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT TRIGGERING NEW DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST REACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF 460 THIS EVENING...AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL ENTERTAIN HIGH CHC POPS NORTH OF
460 FOR THIS EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF COVERAGE
TURNS OUT TO BE MORE ORGANIZED.
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT OCCUR.
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS UNDER 10KFT...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
PEA SIZE HAIL REACHING THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD NOT BE AS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
HEAT BURST...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITING FULL SOLAR
INSOLATION. NEVER THE LESS...READINGS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES ELEVATED...MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE REGION. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COMING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SWODY2 HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. WITH OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY...PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MILD CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWERS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY SATURDAY MORNING. TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES DEPENDING OF MODEL CHOICE WITH GFS SLOWER BUT
ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS THE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 8AM SATURDAY WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS MOST OF SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
EXPECTING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AROUND
A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. GFS ALSO SHOWED SOME HEALTHY 6HR MSL
PRESSURE RISES SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. 850 MB
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH SATURDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 70
DEGREES IN THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW SATURDAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FOLLOW HPCGUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS NOT IS A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR WEDGING BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP DEVELOP INSITU CAD. SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BY MONDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW LARGE SCALE OVERRUNNING
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTH OF THIS FRONT SURFACE WINDS WHERE LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING AT KBLF.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER THE
END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WELL AS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1007 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM RALEIGH NC...NORTHWEST TO EVANSVILLE
INDIANA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRIER AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DYING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
ALSO...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE BRISTOL VA/TN AREA. THIS WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NC BY NOON. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED
HOURLY TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND SKY COVER BASED UPON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST
INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST 2 MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...ONE OVER KY/TN...THE OTHER
OVER MISSOURI. BOTH MCS FEATURES WERE BEING FED BY A 40-50 KT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WAS TRANSPORTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN TX INTO THE MID MS AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LEADING MCS OVER KY/TN...THIS ACTIVITY POISED TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM
INTO OUR WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE FEATURE CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN PER DRY AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND THE 04Z HRRR FOR QPF THIS
MORNING. THIS YEILDED ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAINFALL WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH UPWARDS OF A THIRD OF AN INCH WEST OF I-77.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST WEST
OF I-77 AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTFLOW FROM MCS OVER MISSOURI
SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT TRIGGERING NEW DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST REACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF 460 THIS EVENING...AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL ENTERTAIN HIGH CHC POPS NORTH OF
460 FOR THIS EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF COVERAGE
TURNS OUT TO BE MORE ORGANIZED.
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT OCCUR.
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS UNDER 10KFT...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
PEA SIZE HAIL REACHING THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD NOT BE AS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
HEAT BURST...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITING FULL SOLAR
INSOLATION. NEVER THE LESS...READINGS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES ELEVATED...MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE REGION. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COMING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SWODY2 HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. WITH OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY...PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MILD CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWERS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY SATURDAY MORNING. TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES DEPENDING OF MODEL CHOICE WITH GFS SLOWER BUT
ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS THE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 8AM SATURDAY WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS MOST OF SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
EXPECTING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AROUND
A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. GFS ALSO SHOWED SOME HEALTHY 6HR MSL
PRESSURE RISES SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. 850 MB
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH SATURDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 70
DEGREES IN THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW SATURDAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FOLLOW HPCGUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS NOT IS A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR WEDGING BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP DEVELOP INSITU CAD. SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BY MONDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW LARGE SCALE OVERRUNNING
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR VALID TAF PD. SFC
FRONT EXTENDS FROM KDAN WESTWARD ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...WINDS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHEAST OR EAST. THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. THREAT
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER KY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING...PROVIDING THE AREA
WITH SOME -RA BETWEEN 12Z/8AM-16Z/NOON. CLOUD BASES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR...035-060KFT AGL. AFTER
NOON...SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR BUT THEN AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS. BEST
INSTABILITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VA. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR ALL TERMINALS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...MAINLY
BETWEEN 20Z/4PM AND 02Z/10PM THIS EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 12Z/8AM...THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE FRONT WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING
AND BE NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GREATEST AREA OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH WITH WARM FRONT.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE AN ORGANIZED LINE OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR. BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AN INITIAL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF A CENTRAL
U.S. UPPER LOW. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
439 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM RALEIGH NC...NORTHWEST TO EVANSVILLE
INDIANA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRIER AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST
INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...THROUGH KENTUCKY AND INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR AT
LEAST 2 MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...ONE OVER KY/TN...THE OTHER
OVER MISSOURI. BOTH MCS FEATURES WERE BEING FED BY A 40-50 KT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WAS TRANSPORTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN TX INTO THE MID MS AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS. BOTH THE GFS AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LEADING MCS OVER KY/TN...THIS ACTIVITY POISED TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM
INTO OUR WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING. AS THE FEATURE CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN PER DRY AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND THE 04Z HRRR FOR QPF THIS
MORNING. THIS YEILDED ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAINFALL WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WITH UPWARDS OF A THIRD OF AN INCH WEST OF I-77.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST WEST
OF I-77 AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OUTFLOW FROM MCS OVER MISSOURI
SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT TRIGGERING NEW DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST REACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR WEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF 460 THIS EVENING...AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL ENTERTAIN HIGH CHC POPS NORTH OF
460 FOR THIS EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF COVERAGE
TURNS OUT TO BE MORE ORGANIZED.
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THAT OCCUR.
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS UNDER 10KFT...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
PEA SIZE HAIL REACHING THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD NOT BE AS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
HEAT BURST...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITING FULL SOLAR
INSOLATION. NEVER THE LESS...READINGS SHOULD STILL REACH THE 70S.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES ELEVATED...MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKE REGION. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO COMING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SWODY2 HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. WITH OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY...PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES MILD CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWERS THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY SATURDAY MORNING. TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES DEPENDING OF MODEL CHOICE WITH GFS SLOWER BUT
ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS THE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 8AM SATURDAY WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS MOST OF SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
EXPECTING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AROUND
A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. GFS ALSO SHOWED SOME HEALTHY 6HR MSL
PRESSURE RISES SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. 850 MB
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH SATURDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH VALUES FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 70
DEGREES IN THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW SATURDAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FOLLOW HPCGUIDE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH IS NOT IS A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR WEDGING BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP DEVELOP INSITU CAD. SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BY MONDAY MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW LARGE SCALE OVERRUNNING
AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BELOW NORMAL. THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR VALID TAF PD. SFC
FRONT EXTENDS FROM KDAN WESTWARD ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...WINDS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHEAST OR EAST. THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. THREAT
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER KY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING...PROVIDING THE AREA
WITH SOME -RA BETWEEN 12Z/8AM-16Z/NOON. CLOUD BASES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR...035-060KFT AGL. AFTER
NOON...SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR BUT THEN AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS. BEST
INSTABILITY FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VA. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR ALL TERMINALS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...MAINLY
BETWEEN 20Z/4PM AND 02Z/10PM THIS EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 12Z/8AM...THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR...MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE FRONT WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING
AND BE NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GREATEST AREA OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH WITH WARM FRONT.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE AN ORGANIZED LINE OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR. BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AN INITIAL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF A CENTRAL
U.S. UPPER LOW. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
MOST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AT MID
EVENING...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THE EXCEPTION LIES ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE MID TO UPPER 30S WERE OBSERVED.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEWPOINT BUMP IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...VERY LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES HAS REACHED THE GROUND WITH RADAR RETURNS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES NORTH IT IS WEAKENING
AND ERODING DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90. IN FACT...THE 03.00Z GRB SOUNDING IS VERY DRY FROM THE
SURFACE TO 500 MB SO I HAVE DOUBTS IF PRECIP WILL MAKE IT TO THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE RAP FORECAST SEEMS TO
BE MATCHING REALITY THE BEST...AND KEEPS THIS DRY AIR IN PLACE
THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING. AS SUCH...HAVE DELAYED AND SCALED
BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR THEN LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN COULD BE ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR SOME ISOLATED SLICK
SPOTS. HAVE DECIDED TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN AND POSSIBILITY WITH
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
FOCUS IS ON STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MN/NORTHEAST WI/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WAS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA ND FAR
SOUTHWEST WI.
WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON WAS SHOWING A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. A
WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN CO/NEB
PANHANDLE. THIS WAS PRODUCING INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD INTO SD AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN/IA.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY MORNING. THIS WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AREA WITH INCREASING 285-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT/850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DUE TO A DRY INFLOW OF AIR AROUND THE HIGH
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NAM IS STRONGEST WITH
THIS WAVE AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/RAIN WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR ALL LIQUID. HOWEVER...IF THIS SHOWER/RAIN ACTIVITY
PUSHES ANY FARTHER NORTH...SAY ALONG/NORTH OF I-94...THEN COULD BE
LOOKING AT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. NOT LOOKING AT ANY HEADLINES
FOR THIS CURRENTLY...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.
THURSDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN//MORE PREDOMINATE IN
THE AFTERNOON// WITH INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND FAIRLY INTENSE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI. ALSO...MODELS INDICATING SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPES INCREASING INTO THE 100-500J/KG RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S TO
THE LOWER 40S. EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH THE RAIN
WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL PRETTY RAW IN GENERAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST WI BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL WRAP WARMER AND MOIST INFLOW OF 925-850MB
AIR INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS THE WARMEST...BRINGING IN ZERO TO
+10C AIR. MEANWHILE...STEADY EASTERLY INFLOW OF DRIER/COOLER SURFACE
AND LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MAY LEAD TO ENOUGH COLD AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET. FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHWEST WI...THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW MAY
OCCUR WITH DYNAMIC COOLING AFFECTS OF INCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOW.
CONCERNED ON AMOUNT OF ICING THAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94 COULD SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL ICING WITH
PERHAPS 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE. 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW.
THEN ON FRIDAY...LOOKING FOR MAINLY SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI IN DEFORMATION BAND AND WITH
FURTHER DYNAMIC COOLING AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHEAST WI. SHOULD
BE WARMER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY THE
TIME THE SNOW COMES TO AN END...LOOKING AT 3-5 INCHES FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS STAYING
NORTH/WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW IN THE 15-25MPH SUSTAINED RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH IN SOME SPOTS.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON DYNAMICS OF THE STORM AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURE PROFILES...AND FOR THAT MATTER...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM. AS SUCH...WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR NOW...
ALLOWING THE NIGHT SHIFT TO ASSESS 00Z MODEL RUNS.
MODELS THEN TAKE THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY EVENING...
TAKING BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A POSITIVE REBOUND BACK TOWARD MORE SPRING-LIKE
CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
02.00Z ECMWF AND 02.12Z GFS/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BREAKING
DOWN SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND DIG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE MODELS ARE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 02.00Z
ECMWF AND 02.12Z GFS/GEM EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE TO HAVE SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS ALL OR MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE 02.00Z ECMWF AND 02.12Z
GFS SHOW A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND ALLOWS COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH
OBS/MEDIA REPORTS SHOWING THAT THE LEADING BAND IS PRODUCING A MIX
OF SLEET AND RAIN. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION WITH MOST OF THE MVFR CONTAINED TO IOWA/ILLINOIS.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A POTENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION. MVFR LOOKS LIKELY
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD MAINLY BE RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT
SOME SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING AS WELL OUT OF THE EAST WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
25KT RANGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT...A FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER
AT DODGE.
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY ACROSS MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI. SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRECIPITATION WILL BE A WINTRY MIX TO
MOSTLY RAIN. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME RISES ON RIVER SYSTEMS...LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT OCCURS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-095.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......ZT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS/DTJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1250 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.DISCUSSION...
823 PM CDT
HAD UPDATED EARLIER TO ADD MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-EVENING.
VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF SOME GRAUPEL ACROSS FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST IL THIS
EVENING. BACK EDGE OF RADAR-DETECTABLE PRECIP WAS APPROACHING THE
FOX RIVER VALLEY...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING
AS THE VORT MOVES EAST OF AREA. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY ERODE THE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...WITH EXPANSIVE CLEARING NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA PER GOES 11-3.9 IMAGERY.
OTHERWISE...ALSO LOWERED WINDS/GUSTS A BIT IN STEP WITH CURRENT
OBS TRENDS.
RATZER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
203 PM CDT
TONIGHT...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. WITH A
STILL 30 MB SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LAKE HURON TO WESTERN
IA...THE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 30-35 MPH AT
TIMES EARLY THIS EVE. SOME OF THE UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER ACROSS IA AND
SOUTHERN MN HAS MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE TO IT SO EXPECT IT TO FADE
QUICKLY ALONG WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION ERODING AT IT. HAVE GONE WITH A
QUICKER CLEARING THAN MOST MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS WOULD
INDICATE...WITH SCATTERING FROM MID-EVE THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT.
ALREADY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAYBE
WITH A LITTLE MORE HASTE ONCE SCATTERING OCCURS. LOWS LOOK TO SETTLE
AT 25 TO 30 OR ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW EARLY APRIL NORMALS.
MTF
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE A DAY
OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE AIR MASS ALOFT WILL BE GRADUALLY MODIFYING
BUT STILL A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE STRONG APRIL SUN
AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING WILL YIELD A NICE DAY...ESPECIALLY COMPARED
TO THE WINDY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. WHILE HIGHS AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW 50S TO PERHAPS MID 50S IN SOME
SPOTS...THE ONLY CONCERN TOMORROW IS THE TIMING OF A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. NONEXISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW IT TO DO SO BY MID DAY...IF NOT
EARLIER. THIS WILL KEEP AREAS WITHIN 5 TO 10 MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN
STUCK PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS COULD TRY TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE
WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. BANKING ON CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO
YIELD LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING A NICE WARM UP ON SUNDAY TO THE UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN. FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD STILL BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE SHIFT TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS ONTO THE ILLINOIS LAKESHORE. IF TIMING OF THE SHIFT
IS A BIT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S
PEGGED FOR THE LAKEFRONT COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING
WILL SPUR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE GULF COAST THAT WILL THEN
DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD THE
EASTERN LAKES ON MONDAY. THE EXACT TRACK...WITH WHICH THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH OF THE AREA SEES APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM`S
DEFORMATION AXIS. GEFS POPS FAVOR CATEGORICAL IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND LIKELIES FOR THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF CWA SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME
ACCORDINGLY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND A LAKE MICHIGAN DRIVEN
INVERSION WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS LOW 40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TO UPPER 40S-AROUND 50 INLAND. FARTHER WEST...DESPITE CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND FROM APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 50S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
AREA...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN ONLY IN THE 40S. THEN ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW RIDING
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. RAPID WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT IN DOWN SLOPING MID LEVEL FLOW COULD ENABLE HIGHS EVEN WARMER
THAN UPPER 50S CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE WARMING OF THE AIR MASS WILL
PEAK EARLY THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING TO THE MID TEENS
CELSIUS. WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW-MID
40S LOWS COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE OFF TO THE
RACES THURSDAY...THOUGH A POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. IF
THE FRONT SLOWS OR PASSAGE DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL PAST PEAK
WARMING...THEN HIGHS INTO THE 70S (!) ARE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF IS
FEATURING. SO THE MID-UPPER 60S FROM BLENDED INITIALIZATION
HOPEFULLY WILL NEED TO BE RAISED SOME. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT WELL
NORTH...WOULDNT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS WITH FROPA...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A COOLER FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* A LAKE BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS NE THIS AFTN ARND 21Z.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW END VFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY CLEARING OUT OF THE REGION FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. A HOLE FORMED IN THE CLOUDS RIGHT OVER ORD AND MDW...BUT
KEPT BKN VFR CIGS IN THE FCST THROUGH 9Z SINCE SKIES ARE BKN/OVC
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION...AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM THIS AFTN AND MOVE THROUGH ORD AND
MDW. KEPT 21Z FOR THE LAKE BREEZE AS IT STILL SEEMS LIKE A
REASONABLE TIME WITH THE HIGH MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTN.
THE HIGH PUSHES EAST THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING WINDS TO TURN
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 5
KT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE S WINDS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LAKE BREEZE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE LAKE BREEZE IMPACTING ORD AND MDW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/MVFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
215 PM CDT
MAIN CONCERN FOR LAKE MICHIGAN REMAINS THE ONGOING GALE EVENT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN SFC LOW IS MOVING INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN AND WINDS ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HAVE
SHIFTED WLY AND INCREASED TO GALE FORCE WHILE THE FAR NORTH
REMAINS NELY AND JUST BELOW GALES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING GALE
WARNING AND STILL EXPECT SOME FURTHER INCREASE TO THE WIND SPEEDS
OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS THE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA
MOVES NEWD IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW. THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE HAVE NOT YET INCREASED TO GALE FORCE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALES WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF ISSUANCE TIME
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND COLD ADVECTIONS INCREASES OVER THE
LAKE AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT
WINDS WILL DROP OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY WHILE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY...LEADING TO STRENGTHING NWLY WINDS
AGAIN...THOUGH MORE GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 4 AM
SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1133 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 845 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014
The intense area of low pressure that brought the active weather
to our area yesterday has shifted well off to our northeast early
this evening. Tight pressure gradient from the retreating low and
approaching area of high pressure to our west brought us strong
winds today with the cyclonic flow beginning to relax early this
evening resulting in a decrease in wind speeds. As usual, models
were too optimistic with respect to the clouds moving out today
with several more hours to go before we see a clearing trend work
its way into our area overnight. HRRR model and RAP forecast
soundings suggesting the timing of any clearing more towards
midnight northwest and during the early morning hours over the far
eastern counties. Will make those adjustments to the sky grids and
adjust early evening temperatures. We should have the update out
by 900 pm.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1115 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014
Backedge of clouds was approaching the Mississippi River late this
evening and based on the movement it should begin to push acrs our
area, from northwest to southeast in the 08z-12z time frame. Once
the clouds finally clear the area by morning, we can expect some
scattered cirrus at times thru the rest of the day but that is
about it cloud-wise. Surface winds will be light west to northwest
tonight into the morning hours of Saturday, and then go into more
of a light southeasterly direction later tomorrow evening with
speeds thru the period at only 4 to 7 kts.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014
Exiting low pressure system over the Great Lakes leaving a tight
pressure gradient and gusty winds in its wake for the Midwest.
Northerly winds expected to slowly move into the region with
cooler temps for tomorrow as high pressure builds into the region.
High pressure ridge over the CWA for the weekend keeping mild
weather and mostly sunny skies in place. Next system not expected
until after midnight Sun night/Monday. For the most part, forecast
models in pretty good agreement with a quiet forecast overall.
Temperatures still a bit below normal on average and only a couple
shots at precipitation at this point.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through tomorrow...
Winds staying up a bit through the evening before the boundary
layer decouples and the low pulls a bit further to the east. Winds
not dropping below 10kts until later on Saturday morning as the
high pressure ridge moves over the region. Plenty of sunshine
tomorrow will drive temps up into the 50s, still below normal, but
closer to spring than the past couple of days.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
Warmer on Sunday with highs approaching 60. Increasingly southerly
winds through the day assisting with the WAA even though the
clouds will slowly increase with another system developing to the
SSW. The wave just off the Pacific NW coast this afternoon
eventually digs in over the SWrn CONUS and develops a sfc low that
moves through the southern Plains and up into the Ohio River
Valley late Sunday and brings a chance for showers through Monday.
For now, ILX will mainly be on the back side of the Low...putting
the SErn CWA in a spot for some prolonged rainfall. Rain slowly
clearing on Mon night/Tuesday and forecast becomes mild again
through the middle of the week until another system lays out a
boundary for the region on Friday. At this point, pops for
Thursday night remain on the low side, awaiting more detail with a
rather subtle and weak signal in the models.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
411 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IT WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY AND INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR REGION BY TUESDAY.
IN THE LONG TERM A PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE. IT WILL BE DRY MIDWEEK AND WARMER WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WILL BUILD EAST INTO
OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE GOOD SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
QUICK IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS. THE RAP KEEPS 80 TO 90 PERCENT RH
THROUGH 12Z AND WITH A 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION LATER
TODAY WILL SLOW DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
A MAV MET BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS US TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY AND MODELS ARE
TRENDING WITH LESS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. CUT TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE
A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY WILL TRACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A
VERY WET DAY. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER MU CAPES BARELY
REACH 100 J/KG ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES OVER
THE REST OF OUR REGION.
THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN HIGHER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...CUT TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR REGION MONDAY AS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN
ENTIRELY IN THE COOL SECTOR ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES SOUTHEAST MONDAY...AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITING
THE REGION AND PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. AS A
RESULT...CHANCE POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEY WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SECOND WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
DRY CONDITIONS THAT LATEST INITIALIZATION CAME IN WITH FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BREAK
DOWN THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CHANCES AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OUT JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S AFTER THAT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
UPDATE...
GUSTS HAVE ENDED AT KIND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH HAS SHOWN
LITTLE SIGN OF DISSIPATION AS WAS EXPECTED EARLIER. THAT SAID...IT
HAS REMAINED LOW END VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT CEILINGS BRIEFLY BUILDING BACK DOWN INTO THE HIGH MVFR RANGE
AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ONCE GUSTS DIE DOWN...BUT THIS IS LOW
PROBABILITY AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED.
THESE CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY TO BEGIN BREAKING UP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.
WIND GUSTS...WHILE STILL ONGOING AT ALL SITES BUT IND WITHIN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SHOULD BE DYING OFF VERY SHORTLY...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY GUSTS. WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT
ABOVE 10KT OUT OF THE WEST OR WEST/NORTHWEST. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY AT 10KT OR LESS. WINDS TOMORROW EVENING WILL BECOME
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
NO VISIBILITY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IT WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY AND INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR REGION BY TUESDAY.
IN THE LONG TERM A PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE. IT WILL BE DRY MIDWEEK AND WARMER WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WILL BUILD EAST INTO
OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE GOOD SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
QUICK IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS. THE RAP KEEPS 80 TO 90 PERCENT RH
THROUGH 12Z AND WITH A 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION LATER
TODAY WILL SLOW DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
A MAV MET BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS US TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY AND MODELS ARE
TRENDING WITH LESS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. CUT TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE
A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY WILL TRACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A
VERY WET DAY. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER MU CAPES BARELY
REACH 100 J/KG ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES OVER
THE REST OF OUR REGION.
THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN HIGHER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...CUT TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR REGION MONDAY AS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN
ENTIRELY IN THE COOL SECTOR ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES SOUTHEAST MONDAY...AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITING
THE REGION AND PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. AS A
RESULT...CHANCE POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEY WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SECOND WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
DRY CONDITIONS THAT LATEST INITIALIZATION CAME IN WITH FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BREAK
DOWN THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CHANCES AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OUT JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S AFTER THAT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH HAS SHOWN
LITTLE SIGN OF DISSIPATION AS WAS EXPECTED EARLIER. THAT SAID...IT
HAS REMAINED LOW END VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT CEILINGS BRIEFLY BUILDING BACK DOWN INTO THE HIGH MVFR RANGE
AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ONCE GUSTS DIE DOWN...BUT THIS IS LOW
PROBABILITY AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED.
THESE CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY TO BEGIN BREAKING UP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.
WIND GUSTS...WHILE STILL ONGOING AT ALL SITES BUT IND WITHIN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SHOULD BE DYING OFF VERY SHORTLY...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY GUSTS. WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT
ABOVE 10KT OUT OF THE WEST OR WEST/NORTHWEST. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY AT 10KT OR LESS. WINDS TOMORROW EVENING WILL BECOME
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
NO VISIBILITY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IT WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY AND INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR REGION BY TUESDAY.
IN THE LONG TERM A PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE. IT WILL BE DRY MIDWEEK AND WARMER WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WILL BUILD EAST INTO
OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE GOOD SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
QUICK IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS. THE RAP KEEPS 80 TO 90 PERCENT RH
THROUGH 12Z AND WITH A 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION LATER
TODAY WILL SLOW DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
A MAV MET BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS US TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY AND MODELS ARE
TRENDING WITH LESS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. CUT TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE
A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY WILL TRACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A
VERY WET DAY. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER MU CAPES BARELY
REACH 100 J/KG ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES OVER
THE REST OF OUR REGION.
THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN HIGHER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...CUT TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR REGION MONDAY AS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN
ENTIRELY IN THE COOL SECTOR ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES SOUTHEAST MONDAY...AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
MODELS SHOW SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES IN WAVES DURING THE EXTENDED.
ONLY MADE MINOR QUALITY CONTROL TWEAKS TO THE INITIALIZATION. LOW
PRESSURE EXITING THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH
AND MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES AND
THEN USHER IN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIR ARRIVES
THE FORCING HAS MOVED ON SO WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN
THROUGH 6Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE GOING WITH DRY POPS...THUS NO CHANCES
FOR MIXED PRECIP INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS THOUGH LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL DROP TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THURSDAY WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP AS A WARM FRONT
FIRMS ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS COULD BRING IN RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH HAS SHOWN
LITTLE SIGN OF DISSIPATION AS WAS EXPECTED EARLIER. THAT SAID...IT
HAS REMAINED LOW END VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT CEILINGS BRIEFLY BUILDING BACK DOWN INTO THE HIGH MVFR RANGE
AROUND DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY ONCE GUSTS DIE DOWN...BUT THIS IS LOW
PROBABILITY AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED.
THESE CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY TO BEGIN BREAKING UP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...AND SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.
WIND GUSTS...WHILE STILL ONGOING AT ALL SITES BUT IND WITHIN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SHOULD BE DYING OFF VERY SHORTLY...SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY GUSTS. WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT
ABOVE 10KT OUT OF THE WEST OR WEST/NORTHWEST. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY AT 10KT OR LESS. WINDS TOMORROW EVENING WILL BECOME
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
NO VISIBILITY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
UPSTREAM THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS AND THEY ARE
GRADUALLY ADVECTING BACK INTO EASTERN KY AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ROTATES INTO THE OH VALLEY. THESE WILL LIKELY WORK ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SO HAVE RAISED SKY COVER OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY.
THIS ALSO LED TO AN INCREASE IN A FEW VALLEY TEMPERATURES. UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND A ZFP WILL BE ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
WIND GUSTS HAVE DECREASED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS THE
WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE 8 PM EDT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
LATE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO NOW EXITED TO THE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT. THERE
IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN KY AND ON INTO
IL AND INDIANA WHILE THERE ARE SOME BREAKS OVER MUCH OF TN AND PARTS
OF SOUTHERN KY. OPTED TO INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS THE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AROUND IN MANY AREAS FOR A WHILE. WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP
BASED ON THE RECENT TRENDS. MODELS TAKE 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO ABOUT
-4C AROUND DAWN...SO HAVE OPTED TO LOWER MIN T ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN INTO THE UPPER 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED
TO THE SOUTH AND MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT IS
PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AND SHORT
LIVED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EAST KENTUCKY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE SURROUNDING THIS BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THAT WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FRONT ALSO BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER WITH LOWER 50S AIR FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA REPLACING
THE MID 60S CURRENTLY SEEN THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S INBOUND RATHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S THAT PRECEDE THE FRONT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL
TAKE A SLOWLY DAMPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOME ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING BUT ITS IMPACT WOULD BE MITIGATED BY THE
RISING HEIGHTS. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL FAVOR THE HRRR EARLY ON
AND THEN A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS...GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PRE-FIRST PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WILL
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH NOW THAT THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAS BEEN DONE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXPIRING. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EXITING RAINS WILL HOLD IN FOR MANY MORE HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO...CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT RIDGETOP THAN IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNSHINE FOR SATURDAY WITH
SEASONABLY LOWER HEIGHTS LIMITING THE WARMUP TO THE MID 50S IN MOST
PLACES WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT A BETTER AND MORE
TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST AND ALSO ALLOWS SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE NORTH INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
FOR MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GRIDS...USED THE BC/CONSSHORT AS A STARTING
POINT WITH LITTLE ADJUSTMENT GIVEN THE CAA PATTERN. THEREAFTER...
POPULATED WITH THE CONSALL SUITE AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...
PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS AND SATURDAY DEWPOINTS. FOR
POPS...OUTSIDE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS...KEPT THEM LOW...IN LINE WITH
THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH
OF KENTUCKY AND TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUPPORTED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL LIMIT ONSET...THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD OVERPOWER THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOLER
WEATHER RETURNING BY MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
FREE WEATHER LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BY MID WEEK...PROVIDING RAIN
FREE WEATHER FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS...MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT...INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE HAS TRAPPED A GOOD DEAL OF
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A LAYER OF VFR
STRATO CU DEVELOPING AND TRAVERSING EASTERN KY THIS EVENING. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW HELPS TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE MOISTURE...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TAKE HOLD. EXPECT LITTLE IMPACTS TO TAF
SITES FROM THIS CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN BREAK UP
TOMORROW...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GENERALLY OUT OF THE WNW
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AND SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NRLY
DIRECTION BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
302 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING GREAT LAKES CYCLONE AND AND THE SLOWLY PROGRESSING TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD AS EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THESE FEATURES FORCES
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TAKE A FIRM HOLD OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE EVENTUAL FULL
CLEARING OF CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, ALTHOUGH SATELLITE TRENDS
AND RUC GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORT A LESS OPTIMISTIC APPROACH TOWARD
CLEARING THAN SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH
ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT UNUSUAL
FOR THESE REMNANT LOW CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN FORECAST ALONG
WITH A SIGNAL FOR WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY, HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST CONSIDERABLY CLOUDIER FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ALLOWING FOR A RAPID CLEARING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY
FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WELL
MIXED UNTIL SUNSET HELPING TO KEEP A CHILL IN THE AIR UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE DAY. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL TEND TO KEEP CENTRAL U.S. RIDGING IN CHECK AND WILL FAVOR A
MORE ZONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW ALOFT WITH TIME, THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE
OF WHICH WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND A REBOUNDING,
BUT STILL COLDER THAN NORMAL, THERMAL FIELD WILL FAVOR HIGHS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE...40 TO 48 DEGREES. AVERAGE
LOWS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE AROUND 35 DEGREES, SO THE FAVORABLE
RADIATING SCENARIO OF CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE PRODUCING OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 25-29F.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND
SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS UNDER AMPLE DAYTIME SUNSHINE WILL
BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY INTO THE 50S ACROSS SE MI. SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF THE SW GRADIENT SHOULD INHIBIT ONSHORE FLOW FROM
LAKE HURON. INFLUENCE OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAKER MAY HOWEVER TEMPER THE HEATING OVER PORTIONS OF MONROE AND
WAYNE COUNTIES. THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
HOLD INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL WAVE NOW ROTATING INTO THE SWRN
US/NWRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO THE SRN MS VALLEY BY MON
MORNING. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THIS WAVE RAPIDLY EJECTING INTO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES
MON AFTERNOON/MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD
THE ERN GREAT LAKES UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER JET COUPLING. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE A REGION OF GOOD MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WITHIN A WELL
DEFINED TROWAL SIGNATURE ADVANCING INTO SE MI MON AFTERNOON AND
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT AMPLE
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING LARGE
SCALE DYNAMICS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM OVERCOMING THE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SE MI. SO RAIN SHOULD LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
EVEN WITH SOME INITIAL WET BULB COOLING...THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A COLD RAIN DURING THIS EVENT. IF THE FORCING
IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO EXIT LATE MON NIGHT...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A
CHANCE OF A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
DEFORMATION. THIS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING...RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER A HALF AN INCH IN SOME LOCALS CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE.
FAIRLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSES THE ERN US.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN US BREAKING DOWN AS NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TRACKS ACROSS
SRN CANADA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ADVECT
INTO SRN MI BY THURSDAY AND COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO THURS HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 60S. THIS MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SE MI LATE THURS OR THURS
NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THUS THE GALE WARNINGS ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON WILL
END BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING THE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS OVER LAKE HURON
MAY GUST UP 25 KNOTS AT TIME OVER LAKE HURON AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1159 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
//DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY EASE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL INTO ONTARIO. A 20 TO 25 KNOT GUST
COMPONENT WILL REMAIN GIVEN THE EXISTING WIND FIELD AND THE PRESENCE
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES AS COLDER AIR FUNNELS IN. THIS PROCESS WILL
MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE CANOPY OF MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
POCKET OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ATTENDANT TO AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
MORNING. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST AN OCCASIONAL DIP INTO IFR
WILL BE PLAUSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME. DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PULLS EAST EARLY SATURDAY, PROVIDING A STEADY CLEARING TREND THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
FOR DTW...20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLY GUSTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WITH TIME, SETTLING TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT MVFR
TONIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
IFR CONDITION WITHIN ANY HEAVIER BURSTS.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5 KFT EARLY THIS MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PTYPE AS ALL SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...UNTIL 2 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
GALE WARNING...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
GALE WARNING...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
LOW WATER ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THIS MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. SFC RIDGE WAS CENTERED DOWN BY KANSAS CITY AT 3
AM...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO MN. THIS HAS BROUGHT
US LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WHEN YOU ADD IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BOOST FROM MELTING SNOW YOU GET THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG
FORMATION. NAM/RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUPPORT THE FOG
POTENTIAL AS WELL...WITH HYDROLAPSES INCREASING WITH HEIGHT AND LOW
LEVEL MIXING LIMITED. THE RAP AND ITS SIBLINGS /HRRR AND NARRE/ HAVE
BEEN PRETTY ADAMANT ALL NIGHT ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREAS THAT PICKED UP SNOW YESTERDAY...THOUGH THROUGH 3 AM...THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THEIR FOG DEPICTION OUTSIDE OF NRN
WISCONSIN. LOOKING AT HOPWRF...MEMBER 1 LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY ONE WORTH
LOOKING AT FOR FOG ISSUES...AND IT DOES DEVELOP FOG NORTH OF I-94
WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE COLDEST THIS MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT STILL
AFRAID WE MAY SEE A PRETTY RAPID EXPANSION OF FOG BETWEEN 4AM AND
6AM. FOR NOW...WILL ADD THE FOG MENTION TO THE HWO AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR OBSERVATION TRENDS TO SEE IF WE NEED ANY DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AS WE GET INTO SOME
PRETTY GOOD WAA UP AT H7. HAVE GONE DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT
TERM...AS ANY FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO SHORT-LIVED TO ADEQUATELY
MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN ORDER TO ALLOW PRECIP TO REACH
THE GROUND. THOUGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUGE
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WAS NOT WORTH PLASTERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS LARGE SWATHS OF THE MPX AREA.
FOR HIGHS TODAY...BLENDED A MIX DOWN TO 925 MB OFF THE NAM INTO THE
EXISTING FORECAST. THIS WARMED MOST PLACES A DEGREE OR TWO.
HOWEVER...WITH NORMAL HIGHS NOW SURGING INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...TODAYS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GO
BAGGY AS A SFC TROUGH STALLS OUT OVER MN. THIS WOULD SPELL THE
THREAT FOR MORE FOG POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL..BUT LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FLOATING AROUND TO
KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
THE WEEK AHEAD OFFERS A MUCH BETTER WEATHER PATTERN OVER WHAT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE PRETTY
MINIMAL WITH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THURSDAY BEING DAYS OF CONCERN.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE TIED TO
WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM ALONG WITH A SOUTHERN WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE
POPS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. THE AMERICAN
MODELS ARE THE WET ONES WITH THE GEM AND EC DRY. A LITTLE
DISCONCERTING ARE THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE NMM WRF FROM NEAR EAU CLAIRE ON SOUTHWEST TO ST
JAMES. WE DO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S ALONG WITH A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF ML MU CAPE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OFF THE GFS.
THE ARW WRF INDICATES THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN NE/IA...WHICH IS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GEM/EC. HENCE...SMALL POPS REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA ON SUNDAY.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ON
MONDAY GIVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE ALL FOUR MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING OCCURRING.
BEYOND MONDAY...THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH A WARMING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
HIGHS WERE MODIFIED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY USING MIX-DOWN FROM
THE GFS ALONG WITH EC GUIDANCE. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY FROM WEST CENTRAL
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH AROUND 70. EVEN HIGHS IN THE TWIN
CITIES SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 60S. THURSDAY IS A LITTLE TRICKY
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THE SHOWER
CHANCES. MIX-DOWN SUGGESTED RAISING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH MELTING
SNOW...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT WE END
UP WITH SOME WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HYDROLAPSES FROM THE NAM/RAP
CERTAINLY SUPPORT DENSE FOG FOR ALL BUT RWF AND AXN...WHERE WINDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS MIXED. THE HRRR/RAP/NARRE HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG/EAST
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FOR NOW...TRIED TO HINT AT THE FOG POTENTIAL
WITH SOME TEMPO 1SM VIS FOR STC/RNH/EAU...BUT WILL BE KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON THE FOG POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN THE FOG...WILL JUST SEE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND
SFC TROUGH MOVE INTO MN.
KMSP...ALTHOUGH NO FOG MENTION CAN CURRENTLY BE FOUND FOR
MSP...WOULD NOT RULE IT OUT AT THIS POINT GIVEN ALL OF THE SNOW
MELT WE HAVE SEEN COMBINED WITH A DEWPOINT THAT HAS REMAINED
STEADY IN THE MID 20S. IF FOG DOES FORM...IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE...WITH IT MOST LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE 10-13Z WINDOW. OTHER
THAN THAT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH REST OF TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR/-RA. WINDS N 5-10KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/-RA EARLY...BCMG VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1217 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS EVENING...BUT SATELLITE DID SHOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND PATCHY LOW VFR CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND
THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING EAST. SOME FOG HAS FORMED OVER KHYR...AND
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND WE
DROPPED THE WARNING FOR BAYFIELD/SAWYER/PRICE COUNTIES EARLIER
THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE REMAINING
WARNINGS FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS WELL SOON AS VSBYS HAVE
IMPROVED QUITE A BIT AT KIWD.
FURTHER WEST...CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER OUR MINNESOTA
ZONES...WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS EXPANDING JUST WEST OF OUR CWA. WE
DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER WEST OF A KAIT TO KCDD LINE THIS EVENING.
THE RAP DOES BRING THESE CLOUDS EAST THIS EVENING...THEN HAS THEM
DIMINISHING LATE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT BROUGHT AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS A FOOT AND
A HALF TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT. A GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BAND OF SNOW HAD SET UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD AND PINE COUNTY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE MECHANISM RESPONSIBLE APPEARS TO BE SHUTTING
OFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REMOVE MORE COUNTIES FROM THE
WARNING. WILL HANG ON TO THE WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF NW
WI...SPECIFICALLY BAYFIELD AND SAWYER COUNTY EASTWARD. HEAVY SNOW
RECENTLY AT THE IRONWOOD STATION...WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT
ASHLAND. THINK THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO MORE IN SPOTS FOR THE
EVENING...WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE. THE HRRR ACTUALLY CUTS THINGS OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY
THOUGH THIS EVENING SO THAT WOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS IF THINGS SHUT OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL ALSO HANG ON TO SOME FLURRIES FURTHER
WESTWARD AS SOME DIURNAL CLOUD COVER HAD DEVELOPED AND BROUGHT
SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.
ONCE THE SNOW COMES TO AN END TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE
TEENS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTH.
THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF MELTING ON SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S. ONLY
EXCEPTION IN TERMS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
OVERALL PATTERN THIS PERIOD FEATURES A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED
NEAR FNTL BDRY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS IT INITIALLY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO CWA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY SO LOW POPS REMAIN IN FCST
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THE OVERALL FORCING IS QUITE WEAK AND DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A DRY SPELL WILL UNFOLD
TUES/WED BEFORE NEXT FNTL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WED
NIGHT/THUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST HAS
LED TO CLEARING SKIES LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS
WELL...AND SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED AT KHYR. WE EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD FORM AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA SATURDAY EVENING. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. WE
JUMPED ON THIS AS A LOW INVERSION DEVELOPS DURING THE EVENING AND
THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. AT THIS TIME...WE WENT WITH A LOW MVFR DECK
BUT CEILINGS MAY END UP BEING LOWER. WE WILL LET LATER SHIFTS REFINE
THOSE CEILINGS/VSBYS AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 28 44 29 44 / 20 10 10 20
INL 26 46 26 45 / 20 10 10 20
BRD 29 48 29 48 / 10 20 20 30
HYR 29 47 30 47 / 20 20 20 30
ASX 28 44 29 43 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1119 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS EVENING...BUT SATELLITE DID SHOW SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND PATCHY LOW VFR CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND
THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING EAST. SOME FOG HAS FORMED OVER KHYR...AND
WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND WE
DROPPED THE WARNING FOR BAYFIELD/SAWYER/PRICE COUNTIES EARLIER
THIS EVENING. WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE REMAINING
WARNINGS FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS WELL SOON AS VSBYS HAVE
IMPROVED QUITE A BIT AT KIWD.
FURTHER WEST...CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER OUR MINNESOTA
ZONES...WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS EXPANDING JUST WEST OF OUR CWA. WE
DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER WEST OF A KAIT TO KCDD LINE THIS EVENING.
THE RAP DOES BRING THESE CLOUDS EAST THIS EVENING...THEN HAS THEM
DIMINISHING LATE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT BROUGHT AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS A FOOT AND
A HALF TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT. A GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BAND OF SNOW HAD SET UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD AND PINE COUNTY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE MECHANISM RESPONSIBLE APPEARS TO BE SHUTTING
OFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REMOVE MORE COUNTIES FROM THE
WARNING. WILL HANG ON TO THE WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF NW
WI...SPECIFICALLY BAYFIELD AND SAWYER COUNTY EASTWARD. HEAVY SNOW
RECENTLY AT THE IRONWOOD STATION...WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT
ASHLAND. THINK THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO MORE IN SPOTS FOR THE
EVENING...WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE. THE HRRR ACTUALLY CUTS THINGS OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY
THOUGH THIS EVENING SO THAT WOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS IF THINGS SHUT OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL ALSO HANG ON TO SOME FLURRIES FURTHER
WESTWARD AS SOME DIURNAL CLOUD COVER HAD DEVELOPED AND BROUGHT
SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.
ONCE THE SNOW COMES TO AN END TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE
TEENS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTH.
THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF MELTING ON SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S. ONLY
EXCEPTION IN TERMS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
OVERALL PATTERN THIS PERIOD FEATURES A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED
NEAR FRNTL BDRY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS IT INITIALLY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO CWA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY SO LOW POPS REMAIN IN FCST
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THE OVERALL FORCING IS QUITE WEAK AND DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A DRY SPELL WILL UNFOLD
TUES/WED BEFORE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WED
NIGHT/THUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM 3500-5000FT. AN AREA OF CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 4000FT WAS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE RAP
DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS MOVING EAST THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHES
THEM LATE EVENING.
WE ADDED SOME FOG TO THE TAFS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR LATE. WE DID NOT LOWER REMAIN AND THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN AREAS LATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 16 39 28 44 / 10 0 20 10
INL 16 45 26 46 / 0 0 20 10
BRD 16 45 29 48 / 0 0 10 20
HYR 12 42 29 47 / 10 0 20 20
ASX 14 40 28 44 / 40 0 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
148 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
SMALL RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:45 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE NC/SC WESTERN PIEDMONT IS
MAKING GOOD PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BEFORE DAYBREAK. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THE
AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE WARM...WITH A BAND OF REASONABLY THICK MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. ADD TO THAT PLENTY
OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND IT IS AN UNSEASONABLY WARM EVENING
INLAND FROM THE BEACHES.
RADAR HAS REMAINED QUIET SO FAR...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING
OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE ARE NO FAVORABLY
POSITIONED JET STREAKS TO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE ITSELF IS QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG AND HIGH-RES HRRR MODEL PROGS
STILL SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS I AM
HOLDING ONTO THE 20 POP FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE MID 60S JUST INLAND
FROM THE NC COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT MAY TAKE AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK TO FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE...WAITING ON A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TO MOVE BY TO OUR N.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND THE FORCING UPSTAIRS WILL HAVE ALREADY
MOVED OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...SO WILL CONFINE POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST EARLY ON TO ALREADY BELOW FURTHER
INLAND WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING. MODEST MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODEST COOL AND DRY
ADVECTION WITH SUNSHINE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S AND THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK TO THE N SUN
AND SUN NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL SHIFT
TO E AND SE LATE IN THE DAY SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
NEARS. THE COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED OR NEARLY SO THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...NEAR A HALF INCH SAT...WILL BE
RISING DURING SUN AND THEN PEAK SUN NIGHT...AROUND AN INCH AND A
HALF. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE RAMPING HIGHER...ESPECIALLY SUN
NIGHT AS MUCH WARMER AND VERY MOIST AIR OVERRIDES THE SHALLOW COOL
AIRMASS AT/NEAR THE SURFACE. TIMING IS STILL NOT NAILED DOWN...BUT
WILL BEGIN INCREASING POPS FROM S TO N SUN...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH POPS RAMPING TO CATEGORICAL SUN NIGHT. GIVEN
INCREASING CAPE VALUES...WILL INCLUDE SMALL MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF
INCH WITH MORE CONVECTION LIKELY ON MON.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ON SUN...WHEN CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKEST...MAINLY MID 60S. SAT...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL
BE ABLE TO RISE WELL UP INTO THE 70S IF NOT HIT 80 ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COOLEST NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL
OCCUR SAT NIGHT...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE MOST PART. CLOUDS
AND BETTER MIXING SUN NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER...NEAR
50 TO THE MID 50S. THESE LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY BE REACHED EARLY IN
THE EVE...THEN RISING OVERNIGHT AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS
TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO SURGE N.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THE EMPHASIS REMAINS ON THE COMPLEX AND POTENT
STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
STILL A LOT TO BE DETERMINED AS FAR AS POSITIONING AND TIMING BUT
OVERALL POPS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE
EVENT WILL WIND DOWN TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD SLOW
THE PROGRESS. I HAVE INCREMENTALLY INCREASED POPS FOR ALL OF THESE
PERIODS PER HIGHER CONFIDENCE. ALSO A BIT EARLY ON THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE WEATHER BUT PER SPC DISCUSSIONS...INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE THE WILD CARD. BEYOND
THIS...A WESTERLY/FLATTER FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE MID LEVELS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WEDNESDAY MODERATING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERED CIGS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE POSSIBILITY CONTINUES FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALONG WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR...ESPECIALLY INLAND. BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB
10 KTS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. BECOMING
VFR TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:45 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY A STRONG SEABREEZE CIRCULATION COUPLED WITH
MODERATE SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC WIND CREATED WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT
THE BEACHES EARLIER. THESE REALLY STRONG WINDS HAVE DIED
AWAY...BUT A BACKGROUND SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 20 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE UP UNTIL ALMOST DAYBREAK. WHEN COUPLED WITH 4-5 FOOT SEAS
AN "EXERCISE CAUTION" HEADLINE WILL REMAIN APPENDED TO THE
FORECAST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHTER WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A T-STORM MAY
PRECEDE THE FRONT LATE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT
MORNING...SHIFTING SW WINDS TO N AND THEN NE. NE WINDS SAT NIGHT
WILL VEER TO E SUN AFTERNOON AND TO SE SUN NIGHT AS THE STALLED COLD
FRONT TO OUR S BEGINS TO ADVANCE N. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE NEAR
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SUBSIDING. SEAS
WILL REVERSE HIGHER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...RUGGED CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS USUAL...STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY AT THIS POINT NOT THE
STRONGEST I HAVE SEEN. STILL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TO 20-25 KNOTS BY DAYS END
MONDAY AND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY BUT LOOK FOR A LATE DAY ARRIVAL.
WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LOOK FOR WINDS FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW VALUES TO
DROP WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP INDICATIVE OF A WESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO NOTE...THE FIRST WAS MOVING
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
WAS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH WEAK RADAR RETURNS THERE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA. THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO WILLISTON
BY 18Z AND EXIT NEAR CARRINGTON BY 06Z SUNDAY. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND
THE LATEST HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS. EXPECT THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SATURDAY...THEN
CONTINUE TO SCOOT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING 300-400 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH 25KT-30KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE AND THE SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER. WITH
MODEL DISCREPANCY AND SPC KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST OUT OF ANY
GENERAL THUNDER MENTION...HAVE OPTED NOT TO ADD ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER AS OF NOW...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE ADVERTISED PER GFS TO
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SATURDAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR
WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER.
NAM HOURLY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE COLDER AT THE SURFACE THAN THE
GFS. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30. A WARM LAYER NEAR 850MB WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
DEPTH TO MELT ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO THIS LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVER NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...SHOWALTER INDICES ARE
PROGGED TO DIP TO NEAR ZERO OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE DECREASING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A STRONGER SECONDARY WAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO PIVOT OVER THE STATE
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE TOO WARM FOR THUNDER
TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 6 FORECAST. DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEST AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER WEST FOR FRIDAY AS A
RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED
WITH BOTH FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONLY PRECIPITATION THREAT IS AT THE
KISN AND KMOT WHERE ONLY A VCSH WILL BE ADVERTISED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WHICH WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY. PER LATEST
REGIONAL AND MINOT RADAR...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS OR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR/ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER IN BOTTINEAU AND
ROLETTE COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE MINOT SOUNDING SHOWS A LARGE DRY
LAYER OF AIR BENEATH 9000FT...AND NOT SEEING ANYTHING REACHING THE
GROUND PER OBSERVATIONS AS OF YET...AND NOTHING CONCLUSIVE ON THE
WESTHOPE WEBCAM. THE RADAR RETURNS ARE MOVING QUICKLY EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. OTHERWISE THE HRRR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY FORECAST THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY KEEPS ANY PROSPECTS FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG WELL EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
MID CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
MIXING OVERNIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15KT...SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FOG. THE EXCEPTION...JAMESTOWN MAY EXPERIENCE
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHTER WINDS. WILL
MONITOR AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
NWS RADARS SHOW LIGHT RETURNS ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH. DOUBT THE
PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 32 COULD
STILL SEE AN ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN REPORT BUT PRETTY LOW
PROBABILITY ON THIS THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
VISIBLE SAT LOOPS SHOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA/
REFINED THE EVENING CHANCE TO SHOWERS NORTHWEST. ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE CENTRAL FOR FOG AS WELL AS THIS
AREA WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL
RESULT IN A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION TRACKING EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. BEHIND THE WARM ADVECTION A TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
ALTHOUGH CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND
FOG. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL ALERT NEXT SHIFT
BUT HOLD OFF ON A MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW.
SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SAG DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
TIER COUNTIES TURNING SURFACE FLOW MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW MEETS UP WITH
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE TO
NEAR 50...AND COLD TEMPERATURES REMAINING ALOFT IN A WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A CLAP OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE AS SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY
MORNING...RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG/AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH.
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL
HAVE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (GFS) OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(ECMWF). FOR NOW THE BLENDED FORECAST WOULD KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED
WITH BOTH FRONTAL PASSAGES. ONLY PRECIPITATION THREAT IS AT THE
KISN AND KMOT WHERE ONLY A VCSH WILL BE ADVERTISED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1154 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
ADDED PATCH FOG IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES FROM HCO TO TVF. OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
OVERNIGHT. AREAS RADARS SHOWING WEAK RETURN OVER OVER NORTHWEST ND
BUT GIVEN HIGH CEILINGS, PRECIP NOT REACHING THE GROUND. WILL KEEP
FLURRIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWERED TEMPS FOR NORTHERN MN AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE
TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
TWEAKED WIND A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED FOR CLOUD COVER. WILL
LOOK AT TEMPS AT THE NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TONIGHTS LOWS AS A
RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM PILOT MOUND...MB DOWN THROUGH
EUREKA...SD SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...ENTERING MN SIDE
OF THE VALLEY BY AROUND 06Z TO 08Z. A WEAK COOL FRONT CLIPS THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY EARLY SAT MORNING. GENERALLY LIKE A BLEND OF
THE NAM AND ECMWF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BULLISH WITH MOISTURE AND
HAS A COUPLE OF PERIODS (THE LAST TWO RUNS) WITH QPF BULLSEYES.
NAM/ECMWF IS GENERALLY DRIER.
TONIGHT...ATTM DIFFICULT TO ASSESS TRUE CLOUD COVER WITH SOME
AREAS THINNING/CLEARING...BUT DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE LOW
CLOUDS FROM RECENT SNOW IN OTHER AREAS. IN GENERAL..APPEARS CLOUDS
ARE THINNING...AND THE RUC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON IT CLEARING OUT AFT 00Z ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST. CERTAINLY THINK BY 06Z AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT THEN
SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVING INTO SASK WILL
MOVE ACROSS MB IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME...AND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE I DID REMOVE POPS AND GO WITH FLURRIES OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING WITH SPRINKLES NORTHEAST BY NOON. GFS SOUNDINGS DRY MID
LEVELS OUT INDICATING POSSIBLE DRIZZLE BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THAT
POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL SEE BREEZY SFC WINDS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS SHIFT NW EARLY EVENING AND
BEFORE SFC HIGH BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT. SFC LOWS COULD BE
COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING IN AREAS OF FRESHER SNOW AS
WE SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE
NORTH...WARMER TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE WILL STILL HAVE
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE SKY COVER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL SEE STRONGER RETURN FLOW SET UP SUN AFTN
AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO 5OS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS IN
SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH A SFC LOW/WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS
AREA SUN NIGHT...WITH NAM SHOWING SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
LATE SUN AFTN BUT GENERALLY DRY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF SIMILAR TO NAM WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION
MINUS LATE SUN AFTN ACTIVITY. GFS BRINGS ACROSS MORE MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS SUN AFTN BUT LIMITS PRECIP TO SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA SUN NIGHT. AGAIN...GENERALLY LIKE THE DRIER SOLUTION
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY GULF MOISTURE LIKELY BEING ROBBED BY STRONG
CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN (BECOMING RAIN/SNOW BY
EARLY MON MORNING) ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH LOW POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF HILLSBORO.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE N CENTRAL US INTO MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A STEADY WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES TOPPING OUT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN 60S LOOKS LIKELY.
FLOW THEN FLATTENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR FLATTENING THE RIDGE WILL
DROP THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FROPA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATED MVFR CIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OR FROM NORMAN AND CLAY COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD TO GRANT COUNTY. A NARROW FINGER EXTEND NORTH TO GFK.
WESTERN EDGE OF DECK CONTINUES MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 15 KNOTS.
SOUTHERN END OF THE BAND WAS DISSIPATING. EXPECT THE BAND TO
DISSIPATE AROUND 09Z.
SECOND NARROW BAND EXTEND FROM SOUTH OF BJI TO NEAR ROX WITH CIGS
AROUND 35 TO 45 HUNDRED FT. BAND WAS BECOMING MORE NARROW WITH TIME.
EXPECT THE BAND TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z.
HIGHER CLOUDS WERE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND MASKING LOWER
CLOUDS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
351 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. ACCAS FIELD IS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES BUT HARD TO SAY IF ANYTHING IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND WITH THE LACK OF SFC OBS AND FAIRLY
DRY AIR. WHATS INTERESTING TO NOTE THOUGH IS THAT A HANDFUL OF
MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW VIRGA/SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING/EXPANDING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL SD. THE HRRR IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
AND FEEL ITS A BIT OVERDONE. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AND ACTUAL IMPACTS...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SEVERAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING QPF
FROM AROUND BROOKINGS OVER TO THE TWIN CITIES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO MN.
AGAIN...SOMETHING TO MONITOR BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
TIME BEING.
BIGGER STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WARMING TEMPS IN WHAT WILL
START A PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER TEMPS WHICH LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. TEMPS AT 925/850 MB WARM INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS TODAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS SETTING
UP. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH SOME AREAS FLIRTING WITH 60. ONLY REAL NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ON MONDAY.
OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSS
THE REGION. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY
COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS BUILDING OVER THE CWA. THAT SHOULD PROVE TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR A DAY OR TWO...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO CREEP
BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
THERE IS STILL A STRONG SIGNAL AND SUPPORT FOR A RATHER WARM DAY
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TAKE TURNS
INCLUDING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS POST-FRONTAL MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOW ON
PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
NATURE OF THIS COLD FROPA SINCE A STRONG PRESSURE TENDENCY APPEARS
TO BE ATTACHED TO IT...IN ADDITION TO A SMALL RIBBON OF RELATIVELY
STRONG 0.5KM WINDS POST FRONTAL. THE CWA APPEARS TO UNDERGO SOME
SIGNIFICANT COOLING WITH THIS FROPA WITH AN AIRMASS TEMPERATURE
CHANGE OF 10-15C DEGREES IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...RETURNING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.
THEN...BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO
TAKE ON MORE OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET-FAVORABLE ORIENTATION WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP AHEAD OF
WHAT COULD BE THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF TO WORK THROUGH THE COUNTRY`S
MID-SECTION. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO ASSIGN
SOME LIGHT SHOWERY PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AS IT POINTS UP INTO THIS CWA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND
ALLBLEND INCLUDED POPS FOR THIS.
THE GFS IS STILL TRYING TO GET IT TOGETHER REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
HEADING INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP
FOR A FEW HOURS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
143 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS MORNING. DECREASED POPS WITH FRONT PUSHING EAST OF COUNTY
WARNING AREA. MORE CHANGES LATER THIS MORNING.
AS OF 1130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
PRECIP IS ISOLATED AT BEST FROM THE FAR SW VA COUNTIES ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VA. WILL SEE SAME THROUGH 1-2 AM BEFORE EROSION OF
MOISTURE FROM NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT DRIES THINGS OUT. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AS THE FRONT MOVES BY BUT WILL STAY UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING MILDER THAN FORECAST...AND GIVEN A LAG IN COLDER
AIR UPSTREAM BEHIND THE FRONT...RAISED TEMPS THROUGH EARLY
OVERNIGHT. STILL BY MORNING IT SHOULD BE IN 30S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO THE LOWER 40S ROANOKE...AND UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.
APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL ALSO CLEAR SKIES WITH LINGERING
UPSLOPE OVER THE WV MTNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON...
MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM OHIO TO LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
LOCAL MODELS BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 5PM. HRRR GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS AROUND 300 J/KG AT 19Z/3PM.
SURFACE AND 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 850 MB WINDS ARE INITIALLY IN THE 40
TO 50 KNOT RANGE BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO 15 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. DEW POINTS LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY
MIDNIGHT WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE
DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAD PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 10 MB IN 6 HOURS THROUGH 12Z/8AM
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS BUT EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 229 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND MILD AND DRY. FOLLOWING A COOL START WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
PEAKING NEAR NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
CLOSED LOW...WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP GENERATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY...RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE WITH GULF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND OVER LINGERING
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING
INSITU WEDGE WILL KEEP MONDAY WET AND GLOOMY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND INSITU WEDGE EASTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AREAS TO
THE FAR WEST WILL HAVE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN BUT COULD SEE THE BULK
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS FROM THE LOW TRACKING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WEST WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50
OF AN INCH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRESSURE FALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WOULD SUGGEST WEDGE WILL ERODE BY MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY REDUCE THESE PRESSURE FALL AND KEEP THE WEDGE
OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS WEDGE REMAINS...LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR RAIN ENTERING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
HANGING ON ALL DAY MONDAY. POPS CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST AS BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY EXITS EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE NOT GIVING UP ON WINTER JUST YET. THEY ARE BRINGING
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF INTO A CLOSED
LOW...ACROSS THE GULF STATES TUESDAY THEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR A COLD RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECM KEEPS BULK...IF NOT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND THEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS HAPPENS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE WITH
IT...WITH A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID
COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT WEDNESDAY...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE P-TYPE. RIGHT
NOW...TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARY LAYER ARE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ARE REDUCED TO WESTERN SLOPES FOLLOWING
THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZES...DRIZZLE- PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
THE LIKELY P-TYPE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE
A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS
ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 142 AM EDT SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SCT TO BKN
MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. THE TAF SITE
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IS BLF. CIGS WILL BE VFR
EAST OF THE UPSLOPE SE WV MTNS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING AND WILL START TO TAPER
OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS...CEILING AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
THIS HIGH SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING MOVES NORTH INTO THE TN
VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY...SPREADING RAIN AND LOWER CIGS BACK
INTO THE AREA.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING A FRONT THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...KK/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
240 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
WITH THE SNOW/RAIN OF YESTERDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FAIRLY
MOIST. RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD KEEP A FEW HUNDRED FOOT SATURATED LAYER
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOSTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS WESTERN MN...AND IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG...BUT NOT
SEEING MUCH PER LATEST SFC OBS. GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG. WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...AREAS ROAD COULD DEVELOP ICY SPOTS
IF THE THICK FOG DOES MANIFEST.
SOME HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
COULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MEAGER 850-700 MB QG
CONVERGENCE WITH IT...AND SOME 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. BOTH
ARE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN WI. SATURATION ISN/T IMPRESSIVE PER
RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL. BUT THERE
WOULD SEEM TO BE ENOUGH FOR THE WEAK FORCING TO WORK ON THAT SOME
SMALL CHANCES ARE STILL WARRANTED ACROSS THE NORTH. NOTHING IS
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH THERE THAT IT CAN/T BE COMPLETELY IGNORED
EITHER.
SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC LIFT
COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL
SATURATION. AGAIN - NOT IMPRESSIVE - BUT ENOUGH THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN
COULD DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING A 500 MB TROUGH FROM
THE WEST COAST...ACROSS THE PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING IT A BIT AS IT
LIFTS OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z TUE. THE SFC LOW FOLLOWS THE
SAME TRACK...WHICH WOULD KEEP ITS NORTH/NORTHWEST HANGING
DEFORMATION REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID -
MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ASIDE FROM THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE
FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. TIMING/POSITIONING OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW IS PROBLEMATIC TO SAY THE LEAST...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BROADBRUSHING LOW END PCPN CHANCES FOR THE MON-TUE
TIME PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO A ZONAL/RIDGING PATTERN BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. ECMWF 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY AROUND +1.
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS
FOR A CHANGE - HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S CLIMATOLOGICALLY. NOT LOOKING AT
70 YET...BUT A FEW DAYS AROUND 60 LOOK PROBABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON WHETHER ANY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS ARE STARTING TO
DECREASE AND SKIES HAVE GONE CLEAR...SO IT IS A MATTER OF HOW MUCH
SURFACE MOISTURE IS OUT THERE FROM THE SNOW THAT FELL AND MELTED ON
FRIDAY. SHOULD FOG DEVELOP...IT WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING
DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR TO PUT IT DOWN THAT FAR. HAVE KEPT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS IN THERE CENTERED ON THE 10-15Z TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE A MID
LEVEL DECK COMES IN SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM
BEING LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IT WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY AND INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR REGION BY TUESDAY.
IN THE LONG TERM A PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE. IT WILL BE DRY MIDWEEK AND WARMER WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE STRATOCU
HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WILL BUILD EAST INTO
OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE GOOD SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
QUICK IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS. THE RAP KEEPS 80 TO 90 PERCENT RH
THROUGH 12Z AND WITH A 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION LATER
TODAY WILL SLOW DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
A MAV MET BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS US TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY AND MODELS ARE
TRENDING WITH LESS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. CUT TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE
A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY WILL TRACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A
VERY WET DAY. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER MU CAPES BARELY
REACH 100 J/KG ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES OVER
THE REST OF OUR REGION.
THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN HIGHER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...CUT TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR REGION MONDAY AS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN
ENTIRELY IN THE COOL SECTOR ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES SOUTHEAST MONDAY...AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITING
THE REGION AND PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. AS A
RESULT...CHANCE POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEY WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SECOND WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
DRY CONDITIONS THAT LATEST INITIALIZATION CAME IN WITH FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BREAK
DOWN THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CHANCES AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OUT JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S AFTER THAT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/15Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TAF SITES. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT THESE ARE AT VFR LEVEL REGARDLESS. EXPECT
CONTINUED CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AT 4 TO 8 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IT WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY AND INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR REGION BY TUESDAY.
IN THE LONG TERM A PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE. IT WILL BE DRY MIDWEEK AND WARMER WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE STRATOCU
HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WILL BUILD EAST INTO
OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE GOOD SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
QUICK IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS. THE RAP KEEPS 80 TO 90 PERCENT RH
THROUGH 12Z AND WITH A 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION LATER
TODAY WILL SLOW DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
A MAV MET BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS US TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY AND MODELS ARE
TRENDING WITH LESS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. CUT TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE
A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY WILL TRACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A
VERY WET DAY. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER MU CAPES BARELY
REACH 100 J/KG ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES OVER
THE REST OF OUR REGION.
THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN HIGHER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...CUT TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR REGION MONDAY AS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN
ENTIRELY IN THE COOL SECTOR ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES SOUTHEAST MONDAY...AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITING
THE REGION AND PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. AS A
RESULT...CHANCE POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEY WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SECOND WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
DRY CONDITIONS THAT LATEST INITIALIZATION CAME IN WITH FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BREAK
DOWN THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CHANCES AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OUT JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S AFTER THAT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TAF SITES. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT THESE ARE AT VFR LEVEL REGARDLESS. EXPECT
CONTINUED CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AT 4 TO 8 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
723 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IT WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY AND INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR REGION BY TUESDAY.
IN THE LONG TERM A PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE. IT WILL BE DRY MIDWEEK AND WARMER WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WILL BUILD EAST INTO
OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE GOOD SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
QUICK IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS. THE RAP KEEPS 80 TO 90 PERCENT RH
THROUGH 12Z AND WITH A 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION LATER
TODAY WILL SLOW DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
A MAV MET BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS US TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY AND MODELS ARE
TRENDING WITH LESS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. CUT TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE
A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY WILL TRACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A
VERY WET DAY. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER MU CAPES BARELY
REACH 100 J/KG ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES OVER
THE REST OF OUR REGION.
THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN HIGHER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...CUT TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR REGION MONDAY AS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN
ENTIRELY IN THE COOL SECTOR ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES SOUTHEAST MONDAY...AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITING
THE REGION AND PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. AS A
RESULT...CHANCE POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEY WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SECOND WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
DRY CONDITIONS THAT LATEST INITIALIZATION CAME IN WITH FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BREAK
DOWN THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CHANCES AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OUT JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S AFTER THAT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TAF SITES. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT THESE ARE AT VFR LEVEL REGARDLESS. EXPECT
CONTINUED CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
AT 4 TO 8 KTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
652 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO QUEBEC TODAY AS A SMALL SECONDARY
LOW FORMS NEAR THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TONIGHT THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST
MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL APPROACH
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE: WITH TEMPS AT OR EVEN JUST ABV FZG EVEN ACROSS MANY
NRN LCTNS THIS MORN...THE POTENTIAL OF ANY FZRA ACROSS THE WNTR WX
ADV AREA IS WANING. RADAR INDICATES ONE...PERHAPS LAST BAND OF
ORGANIZED PRECIP WHICH COULD RESULT IN ABOUT A 1 HR PD OF GOOD LGT
TO MDT SNFL OVR CNTRL AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA. OTHERWISE...MESO
HRLY MODEL OUTPUT SUCH AS THE HRRR INDICATES LESS ORGANIZED PRECIP
ACROSS THE WNTR WX ADV AREA LATE THIS MORN INTO THE AFTN. THESE
FACTORS COULD RESULT IN EARLY CANCELLATION OF PTNS OF THE
ADV...SPCLY THE E CNTRL AS WELL AS PERHAPS SE AROOSTOOK AND NRN
PENOBSCOT COUNTIES PTN AS WELL.
ORGNL DISC: ON GOING WNTR WX ADV EVENT FOR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA CONTS INTO THIS MORN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNFL REPORTS
AT THIS HR... BUT BASE ON WHAT WE WE ARE OBSVG FOR ACCUMULATION
HERE AT THE WEATHER STATION AT CARIBOU...SN RATIOS APPEAR TO BE
LOW GIVEN SFC AIR TEMPS ARND FZG AND GROUND TEMPS RECENTLY WARMED
BY A COUPLE OF RECENT MILD DAYS. ONE ASSESSMENT THAT WE NEED TO
MAKE IS WHETHER TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF FZRA FOR ANY PTN OF THE FA
THIS MORN...SINCE VERY FEW LCTNS ARE SIG BLO FZG...AND WITH ONLY A
DEG OR TWO RISE IN TEMP NEEDED FOR MOST LCTNS TO RISE ABV FZG AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMER GROUND TEMPS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FZRA AT
MOST LCTNS ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA MAY BE DISSIPATING.
THE BEST LIQ QPF...UPWARDS TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH...WITH THIS EVENT
WILL BE REALIZED OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA...WITH LIKELY ANOTHER
ENHANCED BATCH OF RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING BACK EDGE OF
THE LLVL JET CROSSING THE REGION FROM MID MORN THRU MIDDAY.
MSLY STEADY PRECIP THIS MORN INTO ERLY AFTN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
TO SHWRS LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...WITH SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N AS THE UPPER TROF CROSSES THIS PTN OF THE FA OVRNGT.
SN RATIOS WILL BECOME QUITE LOW EVEN ACROSS FAR NRN PTNS OF THE
FA BY THIS AFTN AS TEMPS CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ABV FZG BY SEVERAL
DEG F...AND THEN CONT A LITTLE ABV FZG INTO THE EVE HRS. BY THE
TIME IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN SHWRS ACROSS THE N LATER
TNGT...ANY REMAINING QPF WILL BE LOW...LMTG ANY LCLZD ACCUMULATING
SNFL TO LESS THAN AN INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WILL BE PULLING AWAY
TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A
WINDY DAY OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WILL EXPERIENCE
SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL NOT BREAK UP NORTH OF
HOULTON UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW 40S NORTH
AND MID TO UPPER 40S FROM MILLINOCKET SOUTHWARD. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SW FLOW...HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S IN BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
HIGHS ALONG THE COAST WILL PROBABLY BE TOWARDS EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY FROM THE COOLER ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RACE TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME COLD
AIR DAMMING WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION
TO MIX WITH...AND CHANGE TO SNOW IN NORTHERN ZONES. A COUPLE OF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WILL ONLY RECEIVE RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY LATE DAY. A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST. THIS JET...THE COASTAL
FRONT AND INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL FOCUS HEAVY RAIN FOR BANGOR AND
DOWN EAST ZONES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE FLOODING
CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT THE FRONTAL INVERSION TO HOLD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S AROUND BANGOR AND UPPER 30S TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE.
THE INVERSION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM
MIXING TO THE SURFACE ALONG THE COAST...BUT A WIND ADVISORY FOR
COASTAL ZONES IS A DECENT POSSIBILITY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OVER BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ENDING BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN GUST TOWARDS 30 MPH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F TOWARDS
THE COAST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONES AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING WELL BELOW FREEZING...PERHAPS AS LOW AS THE TEENS IN
NORTHERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT. THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MAY START AS SNOW...BUT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT FORECAST AND IT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR WILL CONT THRU MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES...IN SN...MIXED PRECIP AN RN...WITH DOWNEAST SITES
TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THIS AFTN. NRN TAF SITES WILL CONT IFR OR
LOW MVFR IN RN/SN SHWRS TNGT WHILE DOWNEAST SITES BECOME VFR.
SHORT TERM: TEMPO MVFR CIGS NORTH OF HUL SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR IN RAIN AND
SNOW. PREDOMINANT IFR REMAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
LIFT TO VFR ON BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE ONGOING SCA FOR TDY WITH SE WINDS...WITH
SCA CONDITIONS LASTING AT LEAST WELL INTO TNGT AS WINDS BECOME W
AND WV HTS PERSIST AOA 5 FT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS
FOR THIS UPDATE.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NW WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SE FLOW.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ002-005-
006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ001-003-
004-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
655 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUD WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING,
POTENTIALLY LINGERING THROUGH LATE MORNING OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY REMAINING AVIATION ISSUE WILL
BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS WELL-MIXED. DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW GUSTS TO SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET, OR PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DEPTH DECREASES IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5 KFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 302 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING GREAT LAKES CYCLONE AND AND THE SLOWLY PROGRESSING TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD AS EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THESE FEATURES FORCES
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TAKE A FIRM HOLD OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE EVENTUAL FULL
CLEARING OF CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, ALTHOUGH SATELLITE TRENDS
AND RUC GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORT A LESS OPTIMISTIC APPROACH TOWARD
CLEARING THAN SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH
ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT UNUSUAL
FOR THESE REMNANT LOW CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN FORECAST ALONG
WITH A SIGNAL FOR WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY, HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST CONSIDERABLY CLOUDIER FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ALLOWING FOR A RAPID CLEARING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY
FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WELL
MIXED UNTIL SUNSET HELPING TO KEEP A CHILL IN THE AIR UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE DAY. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL TEND TO KEEP CENTRAL U.S. RIDGING IN CHECK AND WILL FAVOR A
MORE ZONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW ALOFT WITH TIME, THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE
OF WHICH WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND A REBOUNDING,
BUT STILL COLDER THAN NORMAL, THERMAL FIELD WILL FAVOR HIGHS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE...40 TO 48 DEGREES. AVERAGE
LOWS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE AROUND 35 DEGREES, SO THE FAVORABLE
RADIATING SCENARIO OF CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE PRODUCING OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 25-29F.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND
SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS UNDER AMPLE DAYTIME SUNSHINE WILL
BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY INTO THE 50S ACROSS SE MI. SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF THE SW GRADIENT SHOULD INHIBIT ONSHORE FLOW FROM
LAKE HURON. INFLUENCE OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAKER MAY HOWEVER TEMPER THE HEATING OVER PORTIONS OF MONROE AND
WAYNE COUNTIES. THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
HOLD INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL WAVE NOW ROTATING INTO THE SWRN
US/NWRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO THE SRN MS VALLEY BY MON
MORNING. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THIS WAVE RAPIDLY EJECTING INTO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES
MON AFTERNOON/MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD
THE ERN GREAT LAKES UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER JET COUPLING. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE A REGION OF GOOD MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WITHIN A WELL
DEFINED TROWAL SIGNATURE ADVANCING INTO SE MI MON AFTERNOON AND
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT AMPLE
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING LARGE
SCALE DYNAMICS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM OVERCOMING THE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SE MI. SO RAIN SHOULD LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
EVEN WITH SOME INITIAL WET BULB COOLING...THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A COLD RAIN DURING THIS EVENT. IF THE FORCING
IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO EXIT LATE MON NIGHT...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A
CHANCE OF A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
DEFORMATION. THIS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING...RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER A HALF AN INCH IN SOME LOCALS CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE.
FAIRLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSES THE ERN US.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN US BREAKING DOWN AS NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TRACKS ACROSS
SRN CANADA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ADVECT
INTO SRN MI BY THURSDAY AND COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO THURS HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 60S. THIS MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SE MI LATE THURS OR THURS
NIGHT.
MARINE...
WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THUS THE GALE WARNINGS ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON WILL
END BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING THE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS OVER LAKE HURON
MAY GUST UP 25 KNOTS AT TIME OVER LAKE HURON AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...UNTIL 2 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON
INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
547 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THIS MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. SFC RIDGE WAS CENTERED DOWN BY KANSAS CITY AT 3
AM...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO MN. THIS HAS BROUGHT
US LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WHEN YOU ADD IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BOOST FROM MELTING SNOW YOU GET THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG
FORMATION. NAM/RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUPPORT THE FOG
POTENTIAL AS WELL...WITH HYDROLAPSES INCREASING WITH HEIGHT AND LOW
LEVEL MIXING LIMITED. THE RAP AND ITS SIBLINGS /HRRR AND NARRE/ HAVE
BEEN PRETTY ADAMANT ALL NIGHT ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREAS THAT PICKED UP SNOW YESTERDAY...THOUGH THROUGH 3 AM...THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THEIR FOG DEPICTION OUTSIDE OF NRN
WISCONSIN. LOOKING AT HOPWRF...MEMBER 1 LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY ONE WORTH
LOOKING AT FOR FOG ISSUES...AND IT DOES DEVELOP FOG NORTH OF I-94
WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE COLDEST THIS MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT STILL
AFRAID WE MAY SEE A PRETTY RAPID EXPANSION OF FOG BETWEEN 4AM AND
6AM. FOR NOW...WILL ADD THE FOG MENTION TO THE HWO AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR OBSERVATION TRENDS TO SEE IF WE NEED ANY DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AS WE GET INTO SOME
PRETTY GOOD WAA UP AT H7. HAVE GONE DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT
TERM...AS ANY FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO SHORT-LIVED TO ADEQUATELY
MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN ORDER TO ALLOW PRECIP TO REACH
THE GROUND. THOUGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUGE
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WAS NOT WORTH PLASTERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS LARGE SWATHS OF THE MPX AREA.
FOR HIGHS TODAY...BLENDED A MIX DOWN TO 925 MB OFF THE NAM INTO THE
EXISTING FORECAST. THIS WARMED MOST PLACES A DEGREE OR TWO.
HOWEVER...WITH NORMAL HIGHS NOW SURGING INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...TODAYS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GO
BAGGY AS A SFC TROUGH STALLS OUT OVER MN. THIS WOULD SPELL THE
THREAT FOR MORE FOG POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL..BUT LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FLOATING AROUND TO
KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
THE WEEK AHEAD OFFERS A MUCH BETTER WEATHER PATTERN OVER WHAT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE PRETTY
MINIMAL WITH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THURSDAY BEING DAYS OF CONCERN.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE TIED TO
WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM ALONG WITH A SOUTHERN WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE
POPS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. THE AMERICAN
MODELS ARE THE WET ONES WITH THE GEM AND EC DRY. A LITTLE
DISCONCERTING ARE THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE NMM WRF FROM NEAR EAU CLAIRE ON SOUTHWEST TO ST
JAMES. WE DO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S ALONG WITH A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF ML MU CAPE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OFF THE GFS.
THE ARW WRF INDICATES THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN NE/IA...WHICH IS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GEM/EC. HENCE...SMALL POPS REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA ON SUNDAY.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ON
MONDAY GIVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE ALL FOUR MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING OCCURRING.
BEYOND MONDAY...THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH A WARMING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
HIGHS WERE MODIFIED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY USING MIX-DOWN FROM
THE GFS ALONG WITH EC GUIDANCE. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY FROM WEST CENTRAL
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH AROUND 70. EVEN HIGHS IN THE TWIN
CITIES SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 60S. THURSDAY IS A LITTLE TRICKY
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THE SHOWER
CHANCES. MIX-DOWN SUGGESTED RAISING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SFC RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD VIS RESTRICTIONS IN
BR HAVE STARTED TO QUICKLY EXPAND ACROSS MN/WI SINCE 5 AM.
FORTUNATELY...WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH NIGHT LEFT TO LET THE FOG
EXPAND...SO DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM WHAT THE 6Z TAFS HAD WITH
RESPECT TO FOG/BR. AS SRLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY...WILL SEE A
BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS COME ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVELS LOOK TO
BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO KEEP PRECIP AS VIRGA...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
A STRAY SHOWER OVER IN WRN WI LATE SAT NIGHT. CURRENT HOPE ON FOG
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD IS THAT MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL BE
EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FOG...BUT THAT COULD BE IFFY FOR WRN MN
WHERE WINDS WILL BE GOING LGT AND VRB AS WELL.
KMSP...WILL HAVE SOME NOTHING WORSE THAN MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS IN
BR THIS MORNING...THAT SHOULD BE ALL CLEARED UP BY 14Z. WILL HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY...BUT IT WILL ALL BE ABOVE 7K FT. IN
GENERAL...CONFIDENCE IN ALL ASPECTS OF TAFS IS HIGH.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR/-RA. WINDS N 5-10KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/-RA EARLY...BCMG VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1010 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS.
SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S
MOUNTAINS AND 40S VALLEYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT SATURDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL LOOKING
FOR AN INCREASE IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
DACKS ON SW FLOW...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ON WNW FLOW...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LATEST RAP INDICATING LESS POTENTIAL. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS INTACT FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. TEMPS TODAY GOING JUST
ABOUT NOWHERE ON VEERING FLOW TO THE WNW ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL
FRONTAL PASSAGES. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND SLIGHTLY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS VERMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE POTENTIAL FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS/WINDS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRNT ACRS CENTRAL NY ATTM
WITH GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS OBSERVED
BEHIND THIS FEATURE. ALSO...NOTED SECONDARY 5H VORT DROPPING ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE IN
TROF AXIS...WHICH WL IMPACT OUR CWA THIS AFTN. SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH GOOD MOISTURE FROM SFC THRU
700MB...FAVORABLE 270 TO 290 FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...AND SOME
ENHANCED 1000 TO 700MB OMEGA...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE WESTERN
SLOPES/NORTHERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-03Z. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE FREEZING
LEVEL DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STRONG LLVL CAA DEVELOPS AND
PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BTWN -8C AND -10C. THINKING THIS WL RESULT
IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S ACRS THE MTNS WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL EXPECTED DOWN TO 1200 FEET EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN/EVENING.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE BTWN 3-5 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET BY 06Z
TONIGHT WHERE RATIOS WL BE HIGHER TO A DUSTING TO 3 INCHES ABOVE
1200 FEET...WITH LOWER SNOW RATIOS ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER BL
CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN THIS ACCUMULATIONS WL BE BY 06Z SUNDAY. WL
MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM SUGARBUSH
TO STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS...WITH BEST TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIP BTWN 18Z-03Z. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLW WL LIMIT
PRECIP/QPF ACRS THE CPV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY TODAY...THEREFORE
WL MENTION CHC POPS. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUD SKIES WITH UPSTREAM
SATL PICS SHOWING PLENTY OF STRATUS CUMULUS CLOUDS. TEMPS WL BE
TRICKY WITH LLVL CAA...BUT THINKING L/M 40S VALLEYS TO TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE U20S/L30S MTNS ABOVE 1200 FT. IN ADDITION...THE
LLVL CAA WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WEST WINDS AT 15 TO
30 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS
AND EXPOSED TRRN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS...WHICH WL PROVIDE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR SUGARING WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. ANY
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE/WEAKEN BY 06Z
SUNDAY...AS MOISTURE AND WINDS DECREASE. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC/LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER TWD MORNING. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE L20S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO M/U 20S ELSEWHERE. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING FROM INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U 30S MTNS
TO M/U 40S VALLEYS. EXPECTING A 15 TO 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY...BTWN THE VALLEYS AND MTN SUMMITS. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE U10S TO M20S BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A MID SLOPE THERMAL BELT LIKELY GIVEN
WARMING 925MB TO 850MB TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL
PRODUCE LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.
MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST WITH DEEP DRY
LAYER OVERHEAD THRU 18Z MONDAY. MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS/RH INCREASE
PER 1000 TO 500MB RH FIELDS FROM SW TO NE AFT 18Z MONDAY. PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 2C AND 925MB NEAR 7C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S...WITH MAYBE A 60 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER CPV AWAY FROM LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. AS ALWAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR...WL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LLVL
THERMAL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD/FROZEN LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...RESULTING IN LIMITED MIXING WITH LIGHT WINDS. RAIN
ARRIVES TWD 00Z TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY EVENING INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
MORNING...SUPPORTED BY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE FROM GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTS
NORTHWARD...AND OVERSPREADS FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING.
GREATEST FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z TUESDAY...WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE STEADIEST.
ITS LOOKING TO BE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH SOME COOL AIR WITH TEMPS NEAR 0C
BEING DEPICTED BETWEEN 925 AND 850 MB. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.
DURING TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AS DRY
SLOT WORKS INTO REGION AND BEST FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50. TOTAL QPF MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD NOT POSE ANY MAJOR
HYDRO CONCERNS...BUT COMBINATION OF THE RAIN...AND SNOWMELT FROM
MILD WEATHER PRECEDING THE RAIN...WILL RESULT IN RISING RIVER
LEVELS AND BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT OF ICE ON SOME RIVERS...WHICH WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AS LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER
UPSLOPE FAVORED NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR NORTH SENDS ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 40S...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY...WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK. HAVE GONE
WITH VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXCEPT SLK WHERE
PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
END THIS EVENING. CIGS MOSTLY MVFR THIS MORNING...WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR POSSIBLE AT AT MPV/BTV. CIGS TREND VFR THIS AFTERNOON AT
RUT/PBG/BTV...BUT NOT TILL TONIGHT AT REST OF SITES.
WINDS SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT MSS/SLK TODAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS
AT REST OF SITES BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR IN RAIN. GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR AT TIMES IN RAIN
SHOWERS...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK.
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS SLK/MPV.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
928 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION REPORTED AT WILLISTON AS HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES MOVED OVER THE AIRPORT. EXPECT MOST OF THESE ARE
NOT REACHING THE GROUND. YET WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A SAGGING COLD FRONT SHOULD
INCREASE COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
MORNING REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. ONLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP INDICATIVE OF A WESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO NOTE...THE FIRST WAS MOVING
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
WAS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH WEAK RADAR RETURNS THERE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA. THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO WILLISTON
BY 18Z AND EXIT NEAR CARRINGTON BY 06Z SUNDAY. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND
THE LATEST HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS. EXPECT THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SATURDAY...THEN
CONTINUE TO SCOOT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING 300-400 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH 25KT-30KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE AND THE SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER. WITH
MODEL DISCREPANCY AND SPC KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST OUT OF ANY
GENERAL THUNDER MENTION...HAVE OPTED NOT TO ADD ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER AS OF NOW...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE ADVERTISED PER GFS TO
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SATURDAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR
WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER.
NAM HOURLY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE COLDER AT THE SURFACE THAN THE
GFS. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30. A WARM LAYER NEAR 850MB WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
DEPTH TO MELT ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO THIS LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVER NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...SHOWALTER INDICES ARE
PROGGED TO DIP TO NEAR ZERO OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE DECREASING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A STRONGER SECONDARY WAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO PIVOT OVER THE STATE
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE TOO WARM FOR THUNDER
TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 6 FORECAST. DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEST AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER WEST FOR FRIDAY AS A
RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS REMAINING ISOLATED...ONLY A VCSH IS WARRANTED FOR NOW
AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK. OVERALL...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
MORNING REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. ONLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP INDICATIVE OF A WESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO NOTE...THE FIRST WAS MOVING
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
WAS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH WEAK RADAR RETURNS THERE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA. THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO WILLISTON
BY 18Z AND EXIT NEAR CARRINGTON BY 06Z SUNDAY. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND
THE LATEST HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS. EXPECT THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SATURDAY...THEN
CONTINUE TO SCOOT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING 300-400 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH 25KT-30KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE AND THE SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER. WITH
MODEL DISCREPANCY AND SPC KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST OUT OF ANY
GENERAL THUNDER MENTION...HAVE OPTED NOT TO ADD ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER AS OF NOW...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE ADVERTISED PER GFS TO
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SATURDAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR
WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER.
NAM HOURLY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE COLDER AT THE SURFACE THAN THE
GFS. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30. A WARM LAYER NEAR 850MB WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
DEPTH TO MELT ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO THIS LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVER NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...SHOWALTER INDICES ARE
PROGGED TO DIP TO NEAR ZERO OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE DECREASING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A STRONGER SECONDARY WAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO PIVOT OVER THE STATE
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE TOO WARM FOR THUNDER
TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 6 FORECAST. DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEST AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER WEST FOR FRIDAY AS A
RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS REMAINING ISOLATED...A VCSH IS WARRANTED FOR NOW AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK. OVERALL...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1045 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE ONLY MINOR TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO BUMP
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CWA.
THE K9V9 OB IS ALREADY READING 49 DEGREES THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT
THAT MID 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THAT AREA. MAY HAVE
TO ADD A FOG MENTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE AREAS WHERE GREATEST SNOW MELT OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MAKE THAT MODIFICATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ALL OTHER FORECAST FIELDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. ACCAS FIELD IS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES BUT HARD TO SAY IF ANYTHING IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND WITH THE LACK OF SFC OBS AND FAIRLY
DRY AIR. WHATS INTERESTING TO NOTE THOUGH IS THAT A HANDFUL OF
MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW VIRGA/SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING/EXPANDING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL SD. THE HRRR IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
AND FEEL ITS A BIT OVERDONE. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AND ACTUAL IMPACTS...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SEVERAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING QPF
FROM AROUND BROOKINGS OVER TO THE TWIN CITIES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO MN.
AGAIN...SOMETHING TO MONITOR BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
TIME BEING.
BIGGER STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WARMING TEMPS IN WHAT WILL
START A PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER TEMPS WHICH LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. TEMPS AT 925/850 MB WARM INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS TODAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS SETTING
UP. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH SOME AREAS FLIRTING WITH 60. ONLY REAL NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ON MONDAY.
OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSS
THE REGION. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY
COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS BUILDING OVER THE CWA. THAT SHOULD PROVE TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR A DAY OR TWO...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO CREEP
BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
THERE IS STILL A STRONG SIGNAL AND SUPPORT FOR A RATHER WARM DAY
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TAKE TURNS
INCLUDING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS POST-FRONTAL MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOW ON
PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
NATURE OF THIS COLD FROPA SINCE A STRONG PRESSURE TENDENCY APPEARS
TO BE ATTACHED TO IT...IN ADDITION TO A SMALL RIBBON OF RELATIVELY
STRONG 0.5KM WINDS POST FRONTAL. THE CWA APPEARS TO UNDERGO SOME
SIGNIFICANT COOLING WITH THIS FROPA WITH AN AIRMASS TEMPERATURE
CHANGE OF 10-15C DEGREES IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...RETURNING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.
THEN...BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO
TAKE ON MORE OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET-FAVORABLE ORIENTATION WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP AHEAD OF
WHAT COULD BE THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF TO WORK THROUGH THE COUNTRY`S
MID-SECTION. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO ASSIGN
SOME LIGHT SHOWERY PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AS IT POINTS UP INTO THIS CWA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND
ALLBLEND INCLUDED POPS FOR THIS.
THE GFS IS STILL TRYING TO GET IT TOGETHER REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
HEADING INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
POSSIBLE SIGN THAT SPRING IS HERE...MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ACCAS
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL
JET POKING UP INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE REGIONAL RADARS ARE
DETECTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACCAS
FIELD...MOST IF NOT ALL OF IT IS VIRGA. AS RETURNS APPROACH/PASS
OVER AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING...TAFS ARE BEING UPDATED TO
REFLECT VICINITY SHOWER AND/OR TEMPO LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITHOUT ANY
REDUCTION IN VFR CIGS/VISBIES.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. ACCAS FIELD IS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES BUT HARD TO SAY IF ANYTHING IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND WITH THE LACK OF SFC OBS AND FAIRLY
DRY AIR. WHATS INTERESTING TO NOTE THOUGH IS THAT A HANDFUL OF
MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW VIRGA/SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING/EXPANDING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL SD. THE HRRR IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
AND FEEL ITS A BIT OVERDONE. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AND ACTUAL IMPACTS...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SEVERAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING QPF
FROM AROUND BROOKINGS OVER TO THE TWIN CITIES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO MN.
AGAIN...SOMETHING TO MONITOR BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
TIME BEING.
BIGGER STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WARMING TEMPS IN WHAT WILL
START A PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER TEMPS WHICH LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. TEMPS AT 925/850 MB WARM INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS TODAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS SETTING
UP. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH SOME AREAS FLIRTING WITH 60. ONLY REAL NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ON MONDAY.
OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSS
THE REGION. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY
COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS BUILDING OVER THE CWA. THAT SHOULD PROVE TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR A DAY OR TWO...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO CREEP
BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
THERE IS STILL A STRONG SIGNAL AND SUPPORT FOR A RATHER WARM DAY
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TAKE TURNS
INCLUDING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS POST-FRONTAL MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOW ON
PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
NATURE OF THIS COLD FROPA SINCE A STRONG PRESSURE TENDENCY APPEARS
TO BE ATTACHED TO IT...IN ADDITION TO A SMALL RIBBON OF RELATIVELY
STRONG 0.5KM WINDS POST FRONTAL. THE CWA APPEARS TO UNDERGO SOME
SIGNIFICANT COOLING WITH THIS FROPA WITH AN AIRMASS TEMPERATURE
CHANGE OF 10-15C DEGREES IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...RETURNING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.
THEN...BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO
TAKE ON MORE OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET-FAVORABLE ORIENTATION WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP AHEAD OF
WHAT COULD BE THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF TO WORK THROUGH THE COUNTRY`S
MID-SECTION. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO ASSIGN
SOME LIGHT SHOWERY PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AS IT POINTS UP INTO THIS CWA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND
ALLBLEND INCLUDED POPS FOR THIS.
THE GFS IS STILL TRYING TO GET IT TOGETHER REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
HEADING INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
POSSIBLE SIGN THAT SPRING IS HERE...MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ACCAS
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL
JET POKING UP INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE REGIONAL RADARS ARE
DETECTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACCAS
FIELD...MOST IF NOT ALL OF IT IS VIRGA. AS RETURNS APPROACH/PASS
OVER AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING...TAFS ARE BEING UPDATED TO
REFLECT VICINITY SHOWER AND/OR TEMPO LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITHOUT ANY
REDUCTION IN VFR CIGS/VISBIES.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
657 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL WORK TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO
FORECAST AREA...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 40 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR
ABOVE REMAIN NO CLOSER THAN AUSTIN. 850 MB DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO QUITE
LOW...WITH 0 DEGREE CELSIUS ISODROSOTHERM ANALYZED BY RUC TO BE EVEN
FARTHER AWAY. ERGO...RICH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PROLONGED THREAT OF
THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ANYTIME SOON...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
THAT SAID...ADEQUATE FORCING FROM SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT OR MORE BEGINNING THIS MORNING. DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD EASILY CAUSE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS BELOW ANY
SHOWERS.
LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KDHT AND KGUY RESPECTIVELY.
KAMA MAY APPROACH MVFR CEILINGS LATE IN THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP
VFR FORECAST GOING UNTIL HAVE BETTER CERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF SUCH.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WHICH WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE THIS WEEKEND, RAIN OR DUST? AFTER THE
DUST STORMS OF MARCH AND THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL I THINK IT`S SAFE
TO SAY THE ANSWER IS RAIN. WELL WE ARE IN LUCK, A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE PANHANDLES STARTING TODAY. INDICATIONS
REMAIN POSITIVE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
AND IF YOU ARE IN THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES MAYBE EVEN INTO MONDAY MORNING. IF YOU ARE HOPING TO HEAR
SOME THUNDER THEN THE BEST (WHILE STILL PRETTY SLIM) CHANCE WILL BE
SUNDAY AS WE GET WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING AS
THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY EACH DAY.
MONDAY WE WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES. THANKFULLY THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WONT LAST LONG AS TUESDAY LOOKS NICE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THIS COMING
WEEK. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH RELATING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES GIVEN GOOD MIXING. TURNS OUT THIS WAS AN
EXCELLENT APPLICATION OF LOCAL RESEARCH AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEGUN TO TREND UPWARD FOR HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS TOWARDS WHAT THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT ISSUED. I CONTINUED THIS APPLICATION AND THE RESULT
IS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL THE PANHANDLES ON BOTH
DAYS. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE KNOCKING ON 90`S DOOR, SO IT WOULDN`T BE A
SURPRISE IF 90S END UP IN THE FORECAST AS TIME DRAWS NEARER. THERE IS
A SLIGHT SNAG ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY DIPS INTO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE PANHANDLES WHICH WILL LIMIT THE MIXING AND THUS KEEP
TEMPS AROUND 80 FOR THAT AREA.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR HIGHS
WITH MAYBE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.
MONDAY...BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT WITH 20-FT NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20
TO 25 MPH.
TUESDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, 20-FT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 15 MPH SO THIS MAY LIMIT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF A GUYMON TO HIGGINS LINE.
THURSDAY...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE WEST OF A GUYMON TO HIGGINS LINE. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO BE OFF SET FROM THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DUE TO A
WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS MAY LIMIT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 55 36 59 38 63 / 30 30 30 20 10
BEAVER OK 60 39 57 36 62 / 30 40 40 30 20
BOISE CITY OK 57 35 60 36 61 / 20 40 30 30 20
BORGER TX 58 40 60 41 65 / 30 30 30 20 10
BOYS RANCH TX 61 37 63 39 65 / 20 30 30 20 10
CANYON TX 57 36 61 38 64 / 20 30 30 20 10
CLARENDON TX 57 40 59 42 66 / 30 30 40 20 10
DALHART TX 59 35 60 34 63 / 20 30 30 20 10
GUYMON OK 57 37 61 37 63 / 30 40 30 30 20
HEREFORD TX 59 35 60 37 63 / 20 30 30 20 10
LIPSCOMB TX 57 37 57 40 64 / 30 40 40 30 20
PAMPA TX 56 38 57 38 62 / 30 30 30 30 10
SHAMROCK TX 59 39 57 41 66 / 30 30 40 20 20
WELLINGTON TX 60 42 60 41 68 / 30 30 40 20 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
03/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
636 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
WITH THE SNOW/RAIN OF YESTERDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FAIRLY
MOIST. RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD KEEP A FEW HUNDRED FOOT SATURATED LAYER
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOSTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS WESTERN MN...AND IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG...BUT NOT
SEEING MUCH PER LATEST SFC OBS. GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG. WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...AREAS ROAD COULD DEVELOP ICY SPOTS
IF THE THICK FOG DOES MANIFEST.
SOME HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
COULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MEAGER 850-700 MB QG
CONVERGENCE WITH IT...AND SOME 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. BOTH
ARE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN WI. SATURATION ISN/T IMPRESSIVE PER
RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL. BUT THERE
WOULD SEEM TO BE ENOUGH FOR THE WEAK FORCING TO WORK ON THAT SOME
SMALL CHANCES ARE STILL WARRANTED ACROSS THE NORTH. NOTHING IS
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH THERE THAT IT CAN/T BE COMPLETELY IGNORED
EITHER.
SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC LIFT
COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL
SATURATION. AGAIN - NOT IMPRESSIVE - BUT ENOUGH THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN
COULD DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING A 500 MB TROUGH FROM
THE WEST COAST...ACROSS THE PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING IT A BIT AS IT
LIFTS OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z TUE. THE SFC LOW FOLLOWS THE
SAME TRACK...WHICH WOULD KEEP ITS NORTH/NORTHWEST HANGING
DEFORMATION REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID -
MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ASIDE FROM THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE
FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. TIMING/POSITIONING OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW IS PROBLEMATIC TO SAY THE LEAST...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BROADBRUSHING LOW END PCPN CHANCES FOR THE MON-TUE
TIME PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO A ZONAL/RIDGING PATTERN BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. ECMWF 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY AROUND +1.
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS
FOR A CHANGE - HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S CLIMATOLOGICALLY. NOT LOOKING AT
70 YET...BUT A FEW DAYS AROUND 60 LOOK PROBABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
AN 8 TO 10K DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
06.00Z AND 06.03Z. THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
106 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
IT WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY AND INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR REGION BY TUESDAY.
IN THE LONG TERM A PROGRESSIVE AND SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE. IT WILL BE DRY MIDWEEK AND WARMER WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE STRATOCU
HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WILL BUILD EAST INTO
OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE GOOD SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
QUICK IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS. THE RAP KEEPS 80 TO 90 PERCENT RH
THROUGH 12Z AND WITH A 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION LATER
TODAY WILL SLOW DOWN CLEARING A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
BE MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
A MAV MET BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS US TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY AND MODELS ARE
TRENDING WITH LESS CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION. CUT TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE
A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN GULF STATES SUNDAY WILL TRACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA MONDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A
VERY WET DAY. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER MU CAPES BARELY
REACH 100 J/KG ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES OVER
THE REST OF OUR REGION.
THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN HIGHER POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST.
IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...CUT TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR REGION MONDAY AS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN
ENTIRELY IN THE COOL SECTOR ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES SOUTHEAST MONDAY...AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITING
THE REGION AND PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. AS A
RESULT...CHANCE POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEY WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SECOND WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE
DRY CONDITIONS THAT LATEST INITIALIZATION CAME IN WITH FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BREAK
DOWN THE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CHANCES AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIOD. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OUT JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S AFTER THAT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
VFR AND QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND
LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
450 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
USHERING IN COLDER AIR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS EARLY THIS EVENING...MOSTLY FOR POPS.
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO CROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
ABOUT NORTH CONWAY TO ROCKLAND AND POINTS NORTH. LATEST HRRR RUN
PICKING UP ON THIS PCPN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
PREV DISC...
5H TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL SEE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THIS EVENING WITH A GREATER CHANCE
IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. POPS DECREASE QUICKLY
AFTER THAT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS BUT MOUNTAINS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. USED A
BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR TEMPS TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NICE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SOUTH AND IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40 IN THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE WEST DUE TO WAA ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH WARM ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
START WITH AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTH CAN EXPECT UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WHILE TO THE
SOUTH WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 50S. BY THE END OF THE DAY SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO OUR SW. OUR SNOW PACK...WHICH
VARIES TO NOTHING NEAR PORTLAND TO STILL ~40 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH....WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY RECEDE.
OPEN WAVE ENERGY ALOFT SHIFTS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY
SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS NH AND MAINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND
SLEET FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE THE RAIN...TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO REACH THE 40S AND 50S AS WE
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH CONCORD AND
PORTSMOUTH EVEN MAKING A RUN FOR 60 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A
BIGGER TEMPERATURE VARIATION AS COOLER AIR (30S AND 40S) WEDGE
NORTH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
WARM TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
WARM WEATHER AS SW WINDS CONTINUE. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER
WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
PW VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE HIGH AND ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE AS THIS SYSTEM IS BETTER
RESOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BECOMING VFR AS CLOUDS LIFT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR ON MONDAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR ON WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT FOR KHIE. ALL SITES VFR ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR WIND
GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH ON
THE OCEAN WATERS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...GALES POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1258 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WORKS AGAINST MIXING PROCESSES
TO LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER GROWTH. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT AS FORECAST LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE CROSSOVER TEMP AND LIGHT
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EASTWARD MOVING HIGH DEVELOPS TOWARD 09Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 302 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING GREAT LAKES CYCLONE AND AND THE SLOWLY PROGRESSING TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD AS EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THESE FEATURES FORCES
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TAKE A FIRM HOLD OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE EVENTUAL FULL
CLEARING OF CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, ALTHOUGH SATELLITE TRENDS
AND RUC GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORT A LESS OPTIMISTIC APPROACH TOWARD
CLEARING THAN SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH
ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION GIVEN TO THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT UNUSUAL
FOR THESE REMNANT LOW CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGER THAN FORECAST ALONG
WITH A SIGNAL FOR WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY, HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST CONSIDERABLY CLOUDIER FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE ALLOWING FOR A RAPID CLEARING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY
FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WELL
MIXED UNTIL SUNSET HELPING TO KEEP A CHILL IN THE AIR UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE DAY. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL TEND TO KEEP CENTRAL U.S. RIDGING IN CHECK AND WILL FAVOR A
MORE ZONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW ALOFT WITH TIME, THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE
OF WHICH WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND A REBOUNDING,
BUT STILL COLDER THAN NORMAL, THERMAL FIELD WILL FAVOR HIGHS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE 00Z MAV GUIDANCE...40 TO 48 DEGREES. AVERAGE
LOWS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE AROUND 35 DEGREES, SO THE FAVORABLE
RADIATING SCENARIO OF CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE PRODUCING OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 25-29F.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND
SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS UNDER AMPLE DAYTIME SUNSHINE WILL
BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY INTO THE 50S ACROSS SE MI. SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF THE SW GRADIENT SHOULD INHIBIT ONSHORE FLOW FROM
LAKE HURON. INFLUENCE OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAKER MAY HOWEVER TEMPER THE HEATING OVER PORTIONS OF MONROE AND
WAYNE COUNTIES. THE INFLUENCE OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
HOLD INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL WAVE NOW ROTATING INTO THE SWRN
US/NWRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO THE SRN MS VALLEY BY MON
MORNING. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THIS WAVE RAPIDLY EJECTING INTO THE ERN OHIO VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES
MON AFTERNOON/MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD
THE ERN GREAT LAKES UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER JET COUPLING. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE A REGION OF GOOD MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WITHIN A WELL
DEFINED TROWAL SIGNATURE ADVANCING INTO SE MI MON AFTERNOON AND
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST MON NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT AMPLE
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING LARGE
SCALE DYNAMICS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM OVERCOMING THE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SE MI. SO RAIN SHOULD LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
EVEN WITH SOME INITIAL WET BULB COOLING...THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A COLD RAIN DURING THIS EVENT. IF THE FORCING
IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO EXIT LATE MON NIGHT...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A
CHANCE OF A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
DEFORMATION. THIS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FORCING...RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER A HALF AN INCH IN SOME LOCALS CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE.
FAIRLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSES THE ERN US.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN US BREAKING DOWN AS NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TRACKS ACROSS
SRN CANADA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ADVECT
INTO SRN MI BY THURSDAY AND COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO THURS HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 60S. THIS MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SE MI LATE THURS OR THURS
NIGHT.
MARINE...
WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THUS THE GALE WARNINGS ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON WILL
END BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING THE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS OVER LAKE HURON
MAY GUST UP 25 KNOTS AT TIME OVER LAKE HURON AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1215 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THIS MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. SFC RIDGE WAS CENTERED DOWN BY KANSAS CITY AT 3
AM...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO MN. THIS HAS BROUGHT
US LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WHEN YOU ADD IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BOOST FROM MELTING SNOW YOU GET THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG
FORMATION. NAM/RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUPPORT THE FOG
POTENTIAL AS WELL...WITH HYDROLAPSES INCREASING WITH HEIGHT AND LOW
LEVEL MIXING LIMITED. THE RAP AND ITS SIBLINGS /HRRR AND NARRE/ HAVE
BEEN PRETTY ADAMANT ALL NIGHT ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE AREAS THAT PICKED UP SNOW YESTERDAY...THOUGH THROUGH 3 AM...THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THEIR FOG DEPICTION OUTSIDE OF NRN
WISCONSIN. LOOKING AT HOPWRF...MEMBER 1 LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY ONE WORTH
LOOKING AT FOR FOG ISSUES...AND IT DOES DEVELOP FOG NORTH OF I-94
WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE COLDEST THIS MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT STILL
AFRAID WE MAY SEE A PRETTY RAPID EXPANSION OF FOG BETWEEN 4AM AND
6AM. FOR NOW...WILL ADD THE FOG MENTION TO THE HWO AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR OBSERVATION TRENDS TO SEE IF WE NEED ANY DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
SHOULD SEE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AS WE GET INTO SOME
PRETTY GOOD WAA UP AT H7. HAVE GONE DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT
TERM...AS ANY FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO SHORT-LIVED TO ADEQUATELY
MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN ORDER TO ALLOW PRECIP TO REACH
THE GROUND. THOUGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUGE
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WAS NOT WORTH PLASTERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS LARGE SWATHS OF THE MPX AREA.
FOR HIGHS TODAY...BLENDED A MIX DOWN TO 925 MB OFF THE NAM INTO THE
EXISTING FORECAST. THIS WARMED MOST PLACES A DEGREE OR TWO.
HOWEVER...WITH NORMAL HIGHS NOW SURGING INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S...TODAYS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GO
BAGGY AS A SFC TROUGH STALLS OUT OVER MN. THIS WOULD SPELL THE
THREAT FOR MORE FOG POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL..BUT LOOKS LIKE
WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FLOATING AROUND TO
KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
THE WEEK AHEAD OFFERS A MUCH BETTER WEATHER PATTERN OVER WHAT WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE PRETTY
MINIMAL WITH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THURSDAY BEING DAYS OF CONCERN.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE TIED TO
WEAK WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM ALONG WITH A SOUTHERN WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE
POPS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. THE AMERICAN
MODELS ARE THE WET ONES WITH THE GEM AND EC DRY. A LITTLE
DISCONCERTING ARE THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE NMM WRF FROM NEAR EAU CLAIRE ON SOUTHWEST TO ST
JAMES. WE DO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S ALONG WITH A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF ML MU CAPE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OFF THE GFS.
THE ARW WRF INDICATES THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN NE/IA...WHICH IS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GEM/EC. HENCE...SMALL POPS REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA ON SUNDAY.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ON
MONDAY GIVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE ALL FOUR MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING OCCURRING.
BEYOND MONDAY...THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH A WARMING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
HIGHS WERE MODIFIED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY USING MIX-DOWN FROM
THE GFS ALONG WITH EC GUIDANCE. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY FROM WEST CENTRAL
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH AROUND 70. EVEN HIGHS IN THE TWIN
CITIES SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 60S. THURSDAY IS A LITTLE TRICKY
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THE SHOWER
CHANCES. MIX-DOWN SUGGESTED RAISING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
MAIN ISSUES REMAIN EXTENT OF CLOUDS COVER INTO TONIGHT AND THE
THREAT OF FOG FORMATION...MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH. WEAK
WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP SOME
CLOUDS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z...WITH VIRGA THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT...WE MAY
SEE ENOUGH FORCING FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING INTO THE
NORTHEAST AREA/WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL KEEP TAFS DRY FOR NOW
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AT THIS TIME.
CLOUDS MAY EXIT FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL SLACKEN THE
WIND AND WE COULD SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN FOG AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS. WILL MENTION FOG IN THE KAXN/KSTC AREA LATER
TONIGHT...ENDING THROUGH 15Z SUN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS A BIT
GUSTY WEST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME MORE WEST AND LIGHT LATE OVER
WEST CENTRAL MN.
KMSP...
LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CHANCE OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT IF THE THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVE EXIT BEFORE 12Z SUN. APPEARS
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT OVERALL FOG
FORMATION. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS/A BIT GUSTY AT TIME THIS
AFTERNOON/WILL BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST AND LESS THAN 10KTS INTO
SUNDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR/-RA. WINDS N 5-10KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/-RA EARLY...BCMG VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATES A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...ZONAL FLOW EXTENDED
FROM THE PACIFIC NW COAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER EAST...A
STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM SRN QUEBEC
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE SRN STREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN ARIZONA WITH HT FALLS OF 50 TO 130 METERS
NOTED FROM EL PASO TO TUSCON. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND EASTERN COLORADO. FURTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER
NRN MISSOURI. DECENT SRLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE SRLY WINDS...ALLOWED FOR DECENT
MIXING BY MID MORNING WHICH PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. BY 2 PM CDT...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURE RANGED
FROM 57 AT NORTH PLATTE...TO 65 AT VALENTINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SAGGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SHORTLY BEHIND. A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH YET
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE ISOLATED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM GARDEN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY AS INDICATED LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS WHERE CAPES OF 100-250 J/KG EXIST. ALSO...THE
LATEST NAM AND HRRR BOTH FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA.
TONIGHT...THE NAM IS HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN THE NORTH.
BELIEVE THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE...BUT WORTH MONITORING. TOMORROW...AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS CO/KS...WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVES ESE FROM WY INTO NE LATER IN THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS MODELS ARE GENERATING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LIFT IN THE WEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE. A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL RUN FROM AROUND ONEILL TO IMPERIAL TOMORROW AS WELL.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH RATHER
LOW CAPES OF ABOUT 100-200 J/KG. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE BEST
ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN FORECASTING
CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...APPROACHING NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...ABUNDANT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CARRY OVER
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS HAVE NEGATIVE LI`S SUNDAY EVENING WITH
UNSTABLE CONDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. INHERITED FCST HAD A
MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY EVENING...AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THIS RIGHT NOW. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL WANE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS
WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING PACIFIC COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MILD TEMPS MONDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FAR
WEST TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE FOR LOWS MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WITH EXPECTED MIXING...LOWS ON THE ORDER OF
MID 30S IN THE WEST...TO UPPER 30S IN THE EAST SEEM TO BE A BETTER
FIT TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE
INHERITED FCST. WITH WARMER LOWS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING...THE
MENTION OF SNOW WAS SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE ONLY THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND A SLIVER OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
MONDAY.
ON MONDAY...STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THE LATEST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH WINDS THIS MORNING...AND IS
INDICATIVE OF ADVISORY SPEED WINDS FROM LATE MORNING MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE RAMPED UP WINDS IN THE GRIDS
AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE SHORT TERM DESK MENTION THE WIND THREAT
IN THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO WIND...VERY COLD H500
TEMPS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
SURFACE HEATING...CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST AND HAVE LINGERED THEM THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DRY AIR...LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE INDICATIVE OF A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETTING UP MONDAY
NIGHT AS WARMER H85 AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEY...TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. ON TUESDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH WARMER H85 TEMPS OF 8 TO 14C WILL PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO 10 TO 20 MPH...AS WELL AND
MAY GUST UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND FCST HIGHS IN THE 60S MAY PUSH FIRE
DANGER TO EXTREME OR NEAR CRITICAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE LONG RANGE...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DEVELOPING RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE
THREAT FOR PCPN LATE NEXT WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BE
SUPPRESSED AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...LOW DEW POINTS AND WIND...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY AND WILL MENTION THIS IN
THE HWO. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN
TIER OF STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SRLY STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE LATEST MID RANGE SOLNS ARE
INDICATING SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO WE
MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH
EJECTS ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY
...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AT KVTN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF
KVTN AND NORTH OF KLBF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO...THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS OR FOG IN THE KVTN AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW IN THIS SCENARIO. LOWER CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH A WARM SUNNY DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT TO THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STILL MONITORING THE
THREAT FOR UPSLOPE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT...BUT LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE BEST PV AND MOISTURE ARE LIFTING
NORTH OF THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BY THE
TIME THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY FAVORING UPSLOPE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL COUNTERACT ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY UPSLOPE THIS EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN
GREENS FROM MOUNT MANSFIELD NORTH TO JAY PEAK THROUGH A FEW HOURS
PAST MIDNIGHT WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A
GENERAL CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF
SKY COVER AND SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 8 KNOTS TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 359 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE BTV CWA FOR SUNDAY MAKING FOR
A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 0C SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE TO LOCALLY 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEYS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVERHEAD OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S EXPECTED. FOR MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS APPROACH. P-GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN 925MB TEMPS AROUND +5C
PUNCHING HIGHS INTO THE 50S. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN DEVELOPING LATE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF MIX ON THE
SUMMITS...BUT QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASE S-SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT...LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT SATURDAY...RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS. FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SFC LOW VCNTY OF
WRN NY BRINGING WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRY SLOT ARRIVES AND PCPN LIFTS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS (70-80
PERCENT)...BUT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHTER SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING UPR TROUGH AND
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT. COINCIDENT LOW-LEVEL CAA TUESDAY NIGHT
MAY ALLOW LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS VT...WITH
UPR 40S ACROSS NRN NY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR
20S TO MID 30S WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK. MODERATE
GRADIENT FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY KEEP NW WINDS 10-20 MPH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. STILL SOME NWLY
GRADIENT FLOW WEDNESDAY...SO WINDS NW 10-20 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. WITH 850MB
TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S (UPR 30S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS). CLEAR
AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. RETURN LOW-LEVEL S-SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES
TO THE EAST THURSDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY INTO
THE MID-UPR 50S MOST SECTIONS...WITH A FEW HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
CARRIED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MAY END AS A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS FRIDAY.
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY (HIGHS LOW-MID 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...AVIATION WX CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION
CURRENTLY BRINGING VFR CEILINGS...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AT SLK
WITH LOW-LEVEL SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW. INCLUDED VCSH THRU 00Z ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT KRUT...AND INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR VSBY IN -SHSN
ACTIVITY AT KSLK. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...GENERALLY SW TO
WSWLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. CHANNELED FLOW IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL LOCALLY CONTRIBUTE TO WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-32
KTS THRU 02Z TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. DRIER AIR MASS
RESULTS IN CLEARING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD ACROSS NY WILL
ALSO RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY WNW AROUND 10
KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN MONDAY INTO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...GUSTY WNWLY TO NWLY WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OCCASIONALLY VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK. CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING FROM NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT STANLEY. WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES. MAINLY TO RAISE HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES IN MANY AREAS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION REPORTED AT WILLISTON AS HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES MOVED OVER THE AIRPORT. EXPECT MOST OF THESE ARE
NOT REACHING THE GROUND. YET WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A SAGGING COLD FRONT SHOULD
INCREASE COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
MORNING REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
HOVERING AROUND FREEZING SO THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. ONLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP INDICATIVE OF A WESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO NOTE...THE FIRST WAS MOVING
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
WAS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH WEAK RADAR RETURNS THERE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA. THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO WILLISTON
BY 18Z AND EXIT NEAR CARRINGTON BY 06Z SUNDAY. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND
THE LATEST HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS. EXPECT THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SATURDAY...THEN
CONTINUE TO SCOOT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING 300-400 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH 25KT-30KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE AND THE SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER. WITH
MODEL DISCREPANCY AND SPC KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST OUT OF ANY
GENERAL THUNDER MENTION...HAVE OPTED NOT TO ADD ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER AS OF NOW...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE ADVERTISED PER GFS TO
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SATURDAY...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR
WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN MONTANA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER.
NAM HOURLY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE COLDER AT THE SURFACE THAN THE
GFS. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30. A WARM LAYER NEAR 850MB WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
DEPTH TO MELT ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO THIS LAYER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVER NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...SHOWALTER INDICES ARE
PROGGED TO DIP TO NEAR ZERO OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE DECREASING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A STRONGER SECONDARY WAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO PIVOT OVER THE STATE
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE TOO WARM FOR THUNDER
TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 6 FORECAST. DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEST AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER WEST FOR FRIDAY AS A
RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR LIGHT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
KISN...KMOT...AND KDIK. HOWEVER PROBABILITIES AT EACH AERODROME IS
LOW SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A VCSH AT KMOT 18-19Z. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRODUCING A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN AT KISN...THOUGH LARGE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR
FREEZING RAIN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE SUNDAY FOR EACH OF THE
TAF SITES...WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
KISN...KMOT...AND KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1254 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
THE ONLY MINOR TWEAK TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO BUMP
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CWA.
THE K9V9 OB IS ALREADY READING 49 DEGREES THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT
THAT MID 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THAT AREA. MAY HAVE
TO ADD A FOG MENTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE AREAS WHERE GREATEST SNOW MELT OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MAKE THAT MODIFICATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ALL OTHER FORECAST FIELDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK
THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL NE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. ACCAS FIELD IS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. KUDX RADAR IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING WEAK ECHOES BUT HARD TO SAY IF ANYTHING IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND WITH THE LACK OF SFC OBS AND FAIRLY
DRY AIR. WHATS INTERESTING TO NOTE THOUGH IS THAT A HANDFUL OF
MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW VIRGA/SPRINKLE/VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING/EXPANDING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL SD. THE HRRR IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
AND FEEL ITS A BIT OVERDONE. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AND ACTUAL IMPACTS...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS
TIME AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SEVERAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING QPF
FROM AROUND BROOKINGS OVER TO THE TWIN CITIES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO MN.
AGAIN...SOMETHING TO MONITOR BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR
TIME BEING.
BIGGER STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WARMING TEMPS IN WHAT WILL
START A PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER TEMPS WHICH LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. TEMPS AT 925/850 MB WARM INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS TODAY WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS SETTING
UP. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH SOME AREAS FLIRTING WITH 60. ONLY REAL NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ON MONDAY.
OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSS
THE REGION. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY
COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS BUILDING OVER THE CWA. THAT SHOULD PROVE TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR A DAY OR TWO...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO CREEP
BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
THERE IS STILL A STRONG SIGNAL AND SUPPORT FOR A RATHER WARM DAY
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TAKE TURNS
INCLUDING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS POST-FRONTAL MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOW ON
PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
NATURE OF THIS COLD FROPA SINCE A STRONG PRESSURE TENDENCY APPEARS
TO BE ATTACHED TO IT...IN ADDITION TO A SMALL RIBBON OF RELATIVELY
STRONG 0.5KM WINDS POST FRONTAL. THE CWA APPEARS TO UNDERGO SOME
SIGNIFICANT COOLING WITH THIS FROPA WITH AN AIRMASS TEMPERATURE
CHANGE OF 10-15C DEGREES IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...RETURNING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMAL FOR EARLY
APRIL.
THEN...BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO
TAKE ON MORE OF A LOW-LEVEL-JET-FAVORABLE ORIENTATION WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP AHEAD OF
WHAT COULD BE THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF TO WORK THROUGH THE COUNTRY`S
MID-SECTION. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO ASSIGN
SOME LIGHT SHOWERY PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AS IT POINTS UP INTO THIS CWA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND
ALLBLEND INCLUDED POPS FOR THIS.
THE GFS IS STILL TRYING TO GET IT TOGETHER REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
HEADING INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH...WITH THE LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM
AT ABR AND ATY. VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO 1 TO 3 MILES AND MAYBE
EVEN LOWER AT ATY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
101 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO CIGS...
VSBYS...AND PRECIP CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. IT APPEARS BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AT KGUY AND KDHT THIS EVENING AND HAVE MENTIONED
THE PSBLTY AT THOSE SITES AS WELL AS MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. KEPT
KAMA SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AT THIS TIME.
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...AMENDMENTS WILL BE PSBL LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.
ANDRADE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014/
AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL WORK TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO
FORECAST AREA...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 40 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR
ABOVE REMAIN NO CLOSER THAN AUSTIN. 850 MB DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO QUITE
LOW...WITH 0 DEGREE CELSIUS ISODROSOTHERM ANALYZED BY RUC TO BE EVEN
FARTHER AWAY. ERGO...RICH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PROLONGED THREAT OF
THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ANYTIME SOON...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
THAT SAID...ADEQUATE FORCING FROM SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT OR MORE BEGINNING THIS MORNING. DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD EASILY CAUSE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS BELOW ANY
SHOWERS.
LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KDHT AND KGUY RESPECTIVELY.
KAMA MAY APPROACH MVFR CEILINGS LATE IN THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP
VFR FORECAST GOING UNTIL HAVE BETTER CERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF SUCH.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WHICH WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE THIS WEEKEND, RAIN OR DUST? AFTER THE
DUST STORMS OF MARCH AND THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL I THINK IT`S SAFE
TO SAY THE ANSWER IS RAIN. WELL WE ARE IN LUCK, A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES WILL BRING SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE PANHANDLES STARTING TODAY. INDICATIONS
REMAIN POSITIVE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
AND IF YOU ARE IN THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES MAYBE EVEN INTO MONDAY MORNING. IF YOU ARE HOPING TO HEAR
SOME THUNDER THEN THE BEST (WHILE STILL PRETTY SLIM) CHANCE WILL BE
SUNDAY AS WE GET WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING AS
THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY EACH DAY.
MONDAY WE WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES. THANKFULLY THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WONT LAST LONG AS TUESDAY LOOKS NICE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THIS COMING
WEEK. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH RELATING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES GIVEN GOOD MIXING. TURNS OUT THIS WAS AN
EXCELLENT APPLICATION OF LOCAL RESEARCH AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEGUN TO TREND UPWARD FOR HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS TOWARDS WHAT THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT ISSUED. I CONTINUED THIS APPLICATION AND THE RESULT
IS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL THE PANHANDLES ON BOTH
DAYS. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE KNOCKING ON 90`S DOOR, SO IT WOULDN`T BE A
SURPRISE IF 90S END UP IN THE FORECAST AS TIME DRAWS NEARER. THERE IS
A SLIGHT SNAG ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY DIPS INTO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE PANHANDLES WHICH WILL LIMIT THE MIXING AND THUS KEEP
TEMPS AROUND 80 FOR THAT AREA.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR HIGHS
WITH MAYBE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.
MONDAY...BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT WITH 20-FT NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20
TO 25 MPH.
TUESDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, 20-FT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW 15 MPH SO THIS MAY LIMIT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF A GUYMON TO HIGGINS LINE.
THURSDAY...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE WEST OF A GUYMON TO HIGGINS LINE. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO BE OFF SET FROM THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DUE TO A
WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS MAY LIMIT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1216 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
WITH THE SNOW/RAIN OF YESTERDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FAIRLY
MOIST. RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD KEEP A FEW HUNDRED FOOT SATURATED LAYER
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOSTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS WESTERN MN...AND IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG...BUT NOT
SEEING MUCH PER LATEST SFC OBS. GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG. WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...AREAS ROAD COULD DEVELOP ICY SPOTS
IF THE THICK FOG DOES MANIFEST.
SOME HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
COULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MEAGER 850-700 MB QG
CONVERGENCE WITH IT...AND SOME 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. BOTH
ARE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN WI. SATURATION ISN/T IMPRESSIVE PER
RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL. BUT THERE
WOULD SEEM TO BE ENOUGH FOR THE WEAK FORCING TO WORK ON THAT SOME
SMALL CHANCES ARE STILL WARRANTED ACROSS THE NORTH. NOTHING IS
IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH THERE THAT IT CAN/T BE COMPLETELY IGNORED
EITHER.
SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC LIFT
COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL
SATURATION. AGAIN - NOT IMPRESSIVE - BUT ENOUGH THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN
COULD DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING A 500 MB TROUGH FROM
THE WEST COAST...ACROSS THE PLAINS AND STRENGTHENING IT A BIT AS IT
LIFTS OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z TUE. THE SFC LOW FOLLOWS THE
SAME TRACK...WHICH WOULD KEEP ITS NORTH/NORTHWEST HANGING
DEFORMATION REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID -
MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ASIDE FROM THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE
FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. TIMING/POSITIONING OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW IS PROBLEMATIC TO SAY THE LEAST...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BROADBRUSHING LOW END PCPN CHANCES FOR THE MON-TUE
TIME PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO A ZONAL/RIDGING PATTERN BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. ECMWF 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY AROUND +1.
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS
FOR A CHANGE - HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S CLIMATOLOGICALLY. NOT LOOKING AT
70 YET...BUT A FEW DAYS AROUND 60 LOOK PROBABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
AMPLE SUNSHINE. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DECOUPLE FOR A TIME NEAR SUNSET.
BUT THEN MIXING INCREASES SO EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT. WITH MELTING SNOW TODAY...SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. UNDER LIGHTER WINDS WOULD EXPECT FOG/MIST
COULD BE AN ISSUE...BUT WITH THIS MIXING DO NOT THINK IT WILL
MANIFEST. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI TONIGHT
INTO SUN LOOKS TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT. NAM/RAP SUGGEST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. BUT PERUSAL OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB SO
HAVE DOUBTS MUCH IF ANY WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. LEFT TAF
FORECASTS DRY...AT MOST FEEL IT WOULD ONLY BE SPRINKLES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...MW