Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/04/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA

957 AM PDT WED APR 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY
PROVIDING FOR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND PROVIDE FOR A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON 12Z RAOB DATA...CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR DATA...AND HRRR
RUNS HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. FIRST
WAS TO CANCEL ADVY FOR THE SIERRA. SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY ENDED
THERE AND NELY FLOR IS NOW TAKING HOLD. I EXPECT TO SEE MORE
SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVY LEVELS AND BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FURTHER
SOUTH...EXTENDED THE ADVY IN KERN COUNTY UNTIL 21Z/2PM. SNOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO HANG LOWER AND WITH EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THREAT OF SNOW AT PASS LEVEL CAN/T BE
DISCOUNTED. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA TO A
SLIVER OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY BASED ON HRRR RUNS...SREF
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...AND BUFR POINT SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA.
WILL BE HARD TO SEE ANY STORMS FURTHER NORTH AS MID-LEVELS WILL
ALREADY BE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A MODEST MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE CAP TO DEVELOP.

PREVIOUS...
SINCE THE PREVAILING AIRMASS IS UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY APRIL
(BELOW -30 DEG C AT 500 MB AND BELOW -10 DEG C AT 700 MB)...HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 10-15 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY AND
PROVIDES OUR AREA WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD 5-10 DEG F BUT STILL BLOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE PAC NW AND NORCAL ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRINGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...IT WILL PROVIDE FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A DRY UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OFF THE CA COAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING
TO STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY THEN BUILD THE
RIDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ON
SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE.
THE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY AND PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-02 87:1985 56:1907 57:2011 34:1982
KFAT 04-03 91:2000 52:1958 56:1933 33:1964
KFAT 04-04 88:1952 54:1976 57:1961 33:1999

KBFL 04-02 90:1985 57:1981 60:2002 35:1999
KBFL 04-03 90:1961 53:1965 62:1966 35:1955
KBFL 04-04 90:1971 58:1924 62:1961 34:1914
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 3500
FEET FOR THE CAZ095.

PUBLIC...INIGUEZ
AVN/FW...JDB
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

752 PM MDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LINGERED INTO THE EVENING HOURS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. ADDED POPS FOR THIS EARLIER. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT THE SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN.
EXPECT THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS TO END AROUND 9PM IF THIS WEAKENING
TREND CONTINUES.

CAN`T RULE OUT FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP FOG OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LATEST RAP INDICATES THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
NOT BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR FOG. IF ANY FOG DEVELOPS...EXPECT IT TO BE
IN LOW LYING AREAS...LIKE ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY 03Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE AROUND AND NEAR THE SHOWERS.
ONCE THE SHOWERS...END WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY 06Z. CEILINGS
UNDER THE SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 6000 FEET.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG AFTER 09Z. SINCE CHANCE FOR
FOG IS LOW WILL HANDLE IT WITH A VCFG IN THE TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR FOG WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY NORTH OF
DENVER.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM MDT THU APR 3 2014/

SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH UPPER LOW
NEAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT ON BACK
SIDE OF TROUGH OVER MUCH OF PLAINS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS. WINDS LESS WESTWARD TOWARD FOOTHILLS. EARLIER
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST AN SOUTHEAST
OF THE CFWA. CURRENTLY SOME INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY
NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
THE SHOWERS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT AND NOT PRODUCING MUCH
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS WERE A BIT ROBUST. TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS
EVENING WITH DRIER. AND SUBSIDENT AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
AIRMASS TO BECOME STABLE WHICH SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THE SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. GRADIENT WILL
ALSO BE WEAKENING...WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS. MAY STILL BE A BIT
GUSTY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CLEARING
SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE HELPING TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES A BIT. DID LOWER MINS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE GOOD SNOWFALL
OCCURRED. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GETTING MORE EXCITED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP
WITH GOOD DRAINAGE AND KEEP ANY FOG CONFINED TO LOW LYING AREAS.
KEPT FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
ON FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS WARMER WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE
MOISTURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY.
MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY MOUNTAIN QPF. ONLY THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS MINOR QPF BY 00Z. WITH FAIRLY SUBSIDENT AND
STABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...NOT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PLAINS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...DID LOWER
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

LONG TERM...DISORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
THIS WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT BAD...THOUGH THIS MORNINGS
NAM WAS AN OUTLIER DEVELOPING A TIGHT SMALL SCALE LOW AND
RESULTING HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY.
DISCARDED THIS AND WENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING TWO BROAD
AREAS OF LIFT...ONE MOVING ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DRIVEN
BY WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THEN
ANOTHER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND
BETTER INSTABILITY. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN OR SNOW OVERALL...THOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY SHOWER BANDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. I DID
RAISE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH. WITHOUT
MUCH COOLING YET EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS SHOWERS WILL BE RAIN ON
SATURDAY...THEN A MIX AFTER THAT.

THERE IS A LITTLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF A TROUGH
DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. GFS BRINGS SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT MORE COOLING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER. BUT BOTH BRING A
COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY BUT TRIM TEMPERATURES BACK ON MONDAY. THEN THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. AGAIN SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH WARMING TUESDAY...CONSENSUS APPROACH IS
FINE HERE. HELD ON TO LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE
WARMEST DAY...IT COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF IT WINDS UP BEING SUNNY
WITH A LITTLE WIND. MODEL TREND IS TOWARD SOME FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK...NOT SURE IF THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER
OR IF THAT WILL WAIT FOR A MORE DEFINITE FRONT BY FRIDAY...BUT
A LITTLE COOLING SEEMS IN ORDER.

AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL AS THEY PASS THROUGH.
THESE INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO QUICKLY END AFTER 00Z AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE EVENING...BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS DRAINAGE DEVELOPS.
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT KDEN
BEFORE THE DRAINAGE OCCURS. CEILINGS TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z. APPEARS THAT DRAINAGE WINDS TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM AFFECTING THE AIRPORTS. BEST CHANCE FOR
THE FOG WILL BE NORTH OF DENVER. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCFG BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z FOR NOW. WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 15Z FRIDAY...MAY
BE MORE SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA AFTER 18Z. SOME INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...CEILINGS TO REMAIN
ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....GIMMESTAD
UPDATE/AVIATION...MEIER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

1016 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRY SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS MIDWEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. EVALUATING 0Z SOUNDINGS...
CHATHAM IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY WHILE UPTON NY EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLY
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR BENEATH H6. DECENT ISENTROPIC FLOW IS NOTED PER
THE LATEST RAP/HRRR ABOVE H8 ALONG THE 290-295K SURFACES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM-FRONT WHICH IS DRAPED NW-SE IN
VICINITY OF THE DC-METRO AREA. BROADSCALE ASCENT AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN SUBSEQUENTLY ENCROACHING INTO THE NYC TRI-STATE REGION PER
LIFT.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...FAVOR THE NEAR-
TERM TRENDS IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TOWARDS THE SOUTH
AND WEST. LATEST HRRR DOES TRY TO SLIDE THE PRECIP SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTH AND EAST PARENT WITH THE ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THRU
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN. PERHAPS PRECIP CAN ENCROACH AS FAR NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE WORCESTER REGION. BUT ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR WILL
KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT AND THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
ELONGATE WHILE SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST LOSING ITS EFFECTIVENESS IN
AIDING IN ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING THE EXTENT OF
PRECIP TO DISSIPATE TO SOME DEGREE TOWARDS MORNING.

SO LIKELY POPS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. BUSTING
ON THE HIGH TEMPS WITH THE FORECAST LAST NIGHT /DANG NAB/...THE
WARMER CONDITIONS EARLIER TODAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PRECIP
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING REMAINING IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LITTLE
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN /IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED/.

WHILE COOLING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE LOW-
LEVELS MOISTEN ATTENDANT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW PRESENTLY BEING
OBSERVED...THE GROUND REMAINS CONSIDERABLY WARM FROM EARLIER IN
THE DAY. TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FALLING WHERE CLEARING IS PRESENT SO
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR. LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-
30S LOOK TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND PUSHING A
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF
FRIDAY TO BE DRY EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN CT AND SOUTHWEST MA WHERE
THE WARM FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW...TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LOT
COOLER THEN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS TO START BEFORE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THERE IS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF IN THE SHOWERY WEATHER...AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH. PRECIP WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP
ONLY SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY MIX BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM UP. ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THE
ISLANDS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED THUNDER AS TT ARE
ABOVE 50 AND SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN FRIDAY AND DIGS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY-MONDAY. SOME PHASING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS MIDWEEK MAY ALLOW SOME COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA...A COOLER PERIOD BUT JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY... COLD FRONT LINGERS ALONG THE EAST MASS COAST AT THE
START OF SATURDAY MORNING...SO THERE COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. INCREASINGLY GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD BRING
IN DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES. UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY NIGHT BRINGING COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. THIS WILL
PROMOTE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO BRING WIND GUSTS DOWN FROM AT LEAST 900
MB...POSSIBLY FROM 850 MB. THIS WOULD SUPPORT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN
THE 50S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD WITH
SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. F0RECAST TEMPS AT
850 MB AND 900 MB SUGGEST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE
F0RECAST SFC TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 50S. IF MIXING ONLY OCCURS IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET THEN THE COOLER TEMPS ARE REASONABLE...BUT IF
MIXING IS DEEPER SUCH AS TO 900 OR 850 MB THEN THE WARMER TEMPS
WOULD BE A BETTER FIT. WE HAVE STAYED WITH THE COOLER NUMBERS FOR
NOW BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE GENERATES
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY AND THEN
LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THIS BRINGS PCPN
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN TO CONNECTICUT AROUND 21Z/5 PM OR LATER.
THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER/ECMWF A TAD SLOWER. WE BROUGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5PM-9PM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
AT ALL LEVELS...SO PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN. BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS
BRING THE SURFACE LOW UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING TUESDAY AND
SWING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THAT
WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. PCPN
THEN TAPERS OFF DURING TUESDAY. ENOUGH MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON TO
BRING 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
DRY WEATHER. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS THAN EARLY WEEK...BUT TEMPS ALOFT
SUGGEST TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS WINDS SWITCHED TO
A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY MOVE INTO
WESTERN CT AND SW MASS OVERNIGHT ALONG A WARM FRONT.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR/IFR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FOG AND SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON POSSIBLE
PRECIP POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS SATURDAY.
COULD BE LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MORNING CAPE COD/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 60-70 KNOTS ABOVE THE SURFACE...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND ISLANDS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SEAS AND WINDS WILL TREND HIGHER AS AN WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
SCA CONTINUES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATER
ON REACHING ABOVE 5 FT ON THE WATERS. WINDS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 30KTS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH
MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS TUESDAY.

SATURDAY...GUSTY WEST WINDS AS COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 5-8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS MAY LINGER SUNDAY MORNING
ON THE OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE THE TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING
WIND AND SEAS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...INCREASING EAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS JUST 1000-2000 FEET
ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE...SOME OF WHICH MAY CREATE SOUTHWEST GALES
OF 40-45 KNOTS.

.HYDROLOGY...

RIVERS ARE AT CREST OR GRADUALLY FALLING. WILL SEE A CONTINUANCE
OF RIVERS FALLING BELOW FLOOD STAGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD FORECAST STATEMENTS OR PLEASE GO TO THE
WEB PAGE HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX/PHP?WFO=BOX...THIS
WILL DISPLAY STATUS OF OBSERVATIONS. FOR THE MAP WITH MAX FORECAST
CREST CLICK ON THE RIVER FORECASTS TAB.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ256.

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1046 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...AND THEN
SINK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...AND LIGHT RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE
NJ AND INTO NYC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME LOCALLY MODERATE
RAIN APPEARS TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HRRR MODEL. LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF QPF IS LIKELY...WITH
RAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO NYC AND LONG ISLAND. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING LONG ISLAND BY MID AFTERNOON.

AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT W-NW...GUSTING
BRIEFLY TO 20-25 MPH FROM NYC WEST. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 60S FROM NYC WEST...AND 55-60 FOR LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SE FROM ONTARIO AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE OH VALLEY BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS. LOW TEMPS ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...ATTM SIDED WITH THE
COLDER NAM MOS GUIDANCE...WITH LOWS 40-45 IN NYC...UPPER 30S
JUST OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...AND 30-35 ELSEWHERE.
IF CLOUD COVER WINS OUT THEN WARMER GFS MOS LOWS 35-40 WOULD
PREVAIL WELL INLAND.

SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST ON THU AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR A LITTLE COOLER THOSE OF
TODAY...MOSTLY 55-60.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW AND MID-LEVEL PVA WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS WILL PROBABLY
BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RIDGING ALOFT AND RELATIVELY HIGHER SURFACE
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. FEEL THAT LIGHT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR
ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WESTERNMOST ZONES WOULD THEN
HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING. CLOUD COVER AND AN EAST
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE THURS NIGHT...AND
HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S DURING FRIDAY.

RAINFALL LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS A SECONDARY
LOW/TRIPLE POINT FORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. THE LOW CENTER THEN PASSES THROUGH AND EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
AT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE COULD RESULT IN
AN ISOLATED TSTM MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MOST OF THE AREA COULD
BE DRY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...HOWEVER STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO START THE DAY FOR THE EASTERNMOST ZONES. DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS.
THE DRY WEATHER LASTS AT LEAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN ONCE
AGAIN...A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BEFORE
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG IT AND PASSES NEARBY OR THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT. CAPPED POPS AT 50% FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT TUESDAY COULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. BUT FOR TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE LEFT IN A CHANCE OF RAINFALL. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONT SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO RANGE FOR
TIMING OF FROPA IS RATHER LARGE...AROUND 16Z WEST TO 00Z EAST.
LATEST RADAR INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS WITH KEWR...KJFK...AND KISP...MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LIGHT RAIN. WITH UNCERTAINTY USED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BEST TIMING OF
LIGHT RAIN. NO IMPACTS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND WIND WILL BE LIGHT...LESS
THAN 10KT...AND DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE...HOWEVER...GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY. LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE LATE...AFT
20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU-FRI NIGHT. A CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ON MOST OF THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
BY SAT MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE...AND COULD TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE BELOW
5 FT.

.HYDROLOGY...
A TOTAL OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD.

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1017 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014

SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST ON THU AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR A LITTLE COOLER THOSE OF
TODAY...MOSTLY 55-60.

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONT SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO RANGE FOR
TIMING OF FROPA IS RATHER LARGE...AROUND 16Z WEST TO 00Z EAST.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING NYC TERMS/KISP WILL GET BRUSHED BY
LIGHT RAIN SO MAINTAINED IT IN THE 12Z TAFS. REMOVED FROM KSWF AND
KEPT VCSH AT KBDR AS IT MAY GET CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. KGON SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

WIND DIRECTIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING. A LIGHT ELY
FLOW CURRENTLY PREVAILS WHERE THERE IS WIND...BUT EXPECT THEM TO
BECOME SWLY AS THE FRONT NEARS THIS MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTS POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND FROPA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
DIRECTIONS SHIFTING ACROSS THE 310 MAG BOUNDARY TODAY MODERATE AT
BEST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE LATE...AFT 20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
DIRECTIONS SHIFTING ACROSS THE 310 MAG BOUNDARY TODAY MODERATE AT
BEST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
DIRECTIONS SHIFTING ACROSS THE 310 MAG BOUNDARY TODAY MODERATE AT
BEST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU-FRI NIGHT. A CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.

.HYDROLOGY...
A TOTAL OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD.

FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

643 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2014

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Occasionally dense fog will continue to
impact KTLH, KDHN, and KECP through mid-morning. Expect to see
conditions occasionally drop to airport minimums. Thereafter, VFR
conditions expected through the day, with possible visibility
restrictions once again late tonight.

.Prev Discussion [518 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Dense fog has gradually become more widespread this morning over
the Panhandle and SE Alabama. Latest HRRR suggests the fog will
continue to slowly spread north and east, persisting through mid-
morning. With 1/4 mile visibilities becoming more common, have
issued Dense Fog Advisory through 14z.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
The large scale pattern commences amplified with positively
tilted trough over Wrn 1/3rd and ridge over Ern 2/3rd of Conus
into the Wrn Atlc with axis down Ern seaboard. At surface...low
over KS with cold front Swd into TX. Strong high in Atlc east of
FL/GA with ridging back across Nrn Gulf region. Locally this
translates to onshore flow sfc-to H7 with WNW flow aloft. Despite
onshore flow...area PWATs only about 0.5-0.6 inches. However with
dew points ranging from mid 50s AL/GA to low 60s coast...expect
mild mins (matching dew points by sunrise). Areas of fog will
develop...portions of which may be dense.

During the rest of the period...Wrn trough will strengthen and
become negatively tilted as it moves Ewd in to the Plains on Thurs.
Assocd low lifts Newd into Great Lakes thru Fri with trough axis
into Wrn Gulf region. Vigorous shortwave to move thru Lwr MS Valley
with dynamics likely to remain to our north. All this pushes Ern
ridge progressively into the Wrn Atlc. At surface...beneath upper
divergence low strengthens and lifts Newd dragging cold front E/SE
and pushing high further into Atlc. By sunrise Fri...front to
TN/LWR MS Valley with squall line ahead of it. All this places
local area increasingly in warm sector with increasing clouds each
day and increasing fog chances at night and early morning.
However...with trough/surface low lifting into Great Lakes...front
should weaken and decelerate and not reach local area until Fri
aftn. Some strong storms possible Wrn CWA but severe storms are not
forecasted.

Largely rain free forecast until slight chance of rain Wrn counties
during the predawn hours of Fri then 40-0% NW-SE shwrs/tstms
gradient on Fri. Warm onshore flow ahead of trough/front will keep
inland max temps in the low to mid 80s....5 to 8 degrees above
climo. Weak gradient should allow for seabreeze to temper coastal
temps...generally closer to 70 degrees. Mild lows Thurs night in
the mid to upper 50s except around 60 at the coast.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]...
A series of shortwave troughs will impact the Tri-State region
throughout the extended range forecast. Our best chance for
stronger storms will be early next week with when a shortwave is
forecast to dig deeper into the Southeast, with the surface low
forecast to skirt the northern Gulf coast. Regardless of the
evolution of severe weather, expect two rounds of showers through
the period. The first will be Friday evening through Saturday,
with the second round Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will
remain near average on both sides of the clock Friday through
Tuesday.

.Marine...
Winds and seas will likely remain below headline levels through
the weekend. Early next week a strong frontal system will yield at
least cautionary conditions across our Gulf waters.

.Fire Weather...
Low-level moisture will be on the gradual increase today with light
onshore flow (especially over the western half of the area). This
modest increase in moisture should keep humidity values above
critical levels, with no Red Flag headlines needed.

.Hydrology...
The Apalachicola at Blountstown is currently at 16.2 feet and will
remain in minor flood stage until to night. The Choctawhatchee
River at Caryville is currently at 12.4 feet and will remain in
minor flood stage until this afternoon. The Choctawhatchee at
Bruce is forecast to reach minor flood stage this evening.
Elsewhere...several other rivers in the CWA remain in action stage.
The next chance for rain is on Friday.

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee 85 54 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 10 20
Panama City 75 61 70 63 76 / 0 10 10 10 30
Dothan 82 57 81 59 81 / 0 0 0 10 40
Albany 84 56 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 10 30
Valdosta 84 56 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 10 20
Cross City 83 54 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 74 60 72 63 76 / 0 0 10 10 20

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
Walton-Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.

GA...None.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...BLOCK/WESTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

518 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2014

...Dense Fog Advisory through 9am CDT for SE Alabama and Florida
Panhandle...

.Prev Discussion [357 AM EDT]...

.Marine...
Winds and seas will likely remain below headline levels through
the weekend. Early next week a strong frontal system will yield at
least cautionary conditions across our Gulf waters.

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

GA...None.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...BLOCK/WESTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

923 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT...THICKENING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP INHIBIT GOOD RADIATION AL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE
RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP OFF.

FOR FRIDAY...THE HIGH RESO MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCALLY RUN
WRF ARE SLOWING DOWN THE APPROACHING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A
FROPA TOMORROW. THE HRRR IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE WRF...AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF RUNS FROM EARLIER. HAVE TRIED
TO TAKE A BLEND..BUT LEANED PRETTY HEAVILY TOWARDS A HRRR AND SREF
BLEND.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FRONT PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. AS FOR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATTENDANT FRONT TRAILING DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA...WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT KIND OF BREAKING OFF
FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...STALLING ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...TEMPORARILY...ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN A HYBRID
DAMMING EVENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BUT BACK TO THE
SHORT TERM...

SHOULD SEE A QLCS ONGOING OVERNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEW
HIRES GUIDANCE IS DELAYING START OF THE CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...SO DELAYED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER EXTREME NORTHWEST BEFORE 12Z. AFTER
THAT...LOOKS LIKE THE QLCS WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST...
WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE QLCS. BEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE WOULD OF COURSE BE WITH THE QLCS ITSELF. SPC
CONTINUES DAY2 SLIGHT RISK FOR NORTH GEORGIA...WITH GFS BEING A
LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH SEVERE PARAMETERS THAN NAM. AT 12Z...GFS
HAS 100-200 J/KG MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 50-60KT 0-6KM SHEAR AND
AROUND 30KT 0-1KM SHEAR ALL NOSING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA. BY 18Z...
MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM ATLANTA NORTHWEST WITH AROUND 50KT
0-6KM SHEAR AND 25-30KT 0-1KM SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MOVES OUT AFTER
THAT POINT WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINING IN NORTH GEORGIA CLOSER
TO THE UPPER WAVE AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAX CAPE VALUES
DECREASING AS IT SPREADS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TOWARD 00Z. SO WITH
ALL THAT...MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS BUT ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH GEORGIA WITH THAT AMOUNT OF SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. GFS SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER AT 18Z
MAXES OUT IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA WITH VALUES OVER 3. NAM AGAIN NOT SO
IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY SPOTTY AREAS OF STP OVER 1. A LARGE AREA OF
SHERB /PARAMETER FOR HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE CONVECTION/ GREATER THAN 1
/CRITICAL THRESHOLD...LIKE STP/ PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
TOMORROW AS WELL.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WITH
QPF VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. AS ALWAYS LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS. THE SYSTEM
COMING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS TOMORROW SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT SIMILAR HIGHS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
NOTICEABLY COOLER FROM ATLANTA NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

TDP

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS SHOW NO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES FROM RECENT
PREVIOUS RUNS. ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS AT
THIS TIME IS MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE STATE DURING THE SHORT TERM IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM AND MOVE INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM AS ITS EXITING THE AREA...
BUT THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVERALL SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING TREND.

THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY AND A WEDGE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN
THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY...THE RAIN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. NEXT SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...AS THEY BOTH TRACK IT NORTH OF GEORGIA...BUT
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM RETURNS ON SUNDAY...MORE ACTIVE TIME PERIOD APPEARS TO BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THUS FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY UP TO 250 J/KG
OF MUCAPE SHOWN IN THE GFS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE THOUGH WITH 40 TO 50KTS AT 12Z MONDAY WHILE THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ALSO STRONG...HOWEVER THE LOW CAPE VALUES WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY..THE INSTABILITY INCREASES
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH AROUND 35KTS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. COULD SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO SOME
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT COULD REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CIGS SHOULD LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT TO IFR VALUES AFTER 06Z. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE TIMING
HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS...AND HAVE PUSHED BACK
THE LINE AN HOUR. HAVE ALSO KEPT SKIES CLOUDY MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND TIMING OF PRECIP. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 57 78 51 70 / 5 60 40 10
ATLANTA 60 75 51 68 / 10 70 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 55 70 44 65 / 20 90 40 5
CARTERSVILLE 59 74 46 66 / 20 80 40 10
COLUMBUS 61 78 55 71 / 5 60 50 20
GAINESVILLE 58 72 49 69 / 20 80 50 10
MACON 57 80 55 74 / 5 40 40 20
ROME 59 75 46 67 / 30 90 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 55 76 50 69 / 10 60 40 10
VIDALIA 59 83 62 75 / 5 10 30 30

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

710 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.UPDATE...
Isolated severe tstms are still possible this evening in the PAH
forecast area as a mid-level cap begins to erode. The main event
will be with the approach of a cold front around midnight. Updated
aviation section.

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Main concern in the short term is severe weather and flooding
potential tonight.

Over the past 24 hours...three convective complexes have affected
parts of the forecast area. These complexes were forecast very
poorly by the models...including the high res mesoscale models.
Based on the poor track record of the models...there is not a high
degree of confidence in the evolution of convection tonight.

Widespread convection earlier today stabilized much of southern
Illinois...southwest Indiana...and northwest Kentucky. To the
south of this activity...SPC objective analysis charts indicate
surface based capes from 1000 to 2000 j/kg as of 19z...but also
some convective inhibition. NAM/RAP model soundings indicate a
warm layer around 750 to 800 mb that may be capping development.
This warm layer will erode this evening...but then lapse rates
below 850 mb become poor.

By 04z widespread convection will develop or move into the
forecast area as a potent 500 mb shortwave over the Plains lifts
northeast...producing strong deep layer forcing in a very moist
environment. RAP forecast soundings indicate the low level jet
will increase to 60 knots as it shifts east to the Mississippi
River around or shortly after 00z. In general...shear profiles and
hodographs will become more favorable for supercells by
00z...especially west of the Kentucky Lake region. The potential
limiting factor will be low to mid level lapse rates...as noted
above.

Wind fields will become more unidirectional late this
evening...as evidenced by curved hodographs becoming more straight
line. This will result in a transition to a linear /qlcs/ storm
mode...with damaging straight line winds the primary threat.
Isolated qlcs tornadoes will be possible.

Convective complexes over the past 24 hours have produced locally
heavy rainfall...leading to some isolated flash flooding. With a
strong low level jet and unseasonably moist air mass in
place...there is a potential for more heavy rain. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued to address this potential. These complexes
have missed most of southeast Missouri...so that area was not
included in the watch.

The cold front will exit the khop/kevv areas by 12z...bringing an
end to all activity. There may be considerable instability
cu/stratocu during the day...per gfs and nam model soundings.
Temps will generally remain steady in the 50s with gusty
northwest winds.

Friday night through Saturday night will be mainly clear and cool
with some potential for frost in the early morning hours. Surface
high pressure will pass over or just north of the forecast area on
Saturday.

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

The next weather system takes shape to our south Sunday, and for at
least the second consecutive day, moves in with pcpn Sunday night
and extends that at least through part of early next week.

This happens as a broad long wave trof carves out across the eastern
half of the country, with us in the cool/damp flow underneath. We`ll
go ahead and accept the allblended pops for the Sunday night through
Tuesday time period, focusing on the best chance time period Sunday
night as the system lifts out. Elevated instability there continues
to support the isolated mention of thunder we inherited, so we kept
it.

Temps remain in balance with consistently forecast highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. These
represent values some 10 degrees or more below climo norms for this
time of year...though some hint at warming a little toward the end
of the period is noted.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 710 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

This is a tough forecast for timing of convective events. Active
convection this evening...moving in from the sw, will take VFR or
MVFR conditions to temporary IFR conditions. Isolated severe weather
is possible. Cold frontal passage tonight will mark the most
restrictive flight conditions. Somewhat variable winds early this
evening are expected to become more southerly and strengthen ahead
of the system, shifting to the west late tonight. Clouds should
eventually disperse tomorrow morning and return to VFR flight levels
in the wake of the system`s departure.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ001>022.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ076-087-111-112.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...DH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

300 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

Main concern in the short term is severe weather potential...with
the greatest risk expected late Thursday through Thursday night.

In the near term...a strong surface warm front was located just
south of a line from kmdh to kowb at 19z. The models have been too
quick to lift the front northward. Relied on the HRRR guidance for
this front...meaning the front will be nearly stationary from the
kevv/kowb area to kmdh well into the evening. The front may not
clear the Interstate 64 corridor until midnight or later. Widespread
elevated convection north of the front should remain generally along
and north of I 64.

Late this evening into the overnight hours...showers and storms will
increase in coverage across the entire region as the southwest flow
aloft becomes more active. The models indicate a series of weak
impulses originating in the subtropical Pacific will begin to affect
our region. In the lower levels...the southerly low level jet will
increase to between 40 and 50 knots by 12z. Some locally heavy rain
is possible...mainly across southern IL and southeast MO. The severe
weather potential will be rather limited by lack of surface based
instability. Enough elevated instability will be present for some
hailers...especially given wet bulb zero heights around 10k feet.
Damaging wind potential will be limited by weak low level lapse
rates.

On Thursday...there may be a lull in the activity during the
morning. Activity should increase during the afternoon as daytime
heating destabilizes the atmosphere. The 12z gfs/09z sref indicate
surface based capes will be near 2000 j/kg later in the afternoon
across southeast MO and southwest IL. The shear/instability
parameters are strongly favorable for supercells across Missouri
during the afternoon. Any activity that forms east of the
Mississippi River will be in a less favorable environment for
supercell structures.

By late Thursday night...the activity is likely to congeal into a
QLCS by the time it reaches sw Indiana and the Pennyrile region of
west Kentucky. By midnight...the environment will be characterized
by high shear and low cape. This should result in more of a wind
threat than hail or tornadoes. During the transition period in the
evening hours...any combination of organized storm structures could
occur...producing damaging wind/large hail/tornadoes. This
transition appears likely to occur across southern IL and far west
Kentucky.

Storm total qpf for the entire short term period is currently
forecast from around 1.5 to almost 3 inches...with the highest
amounts in southern IL and southeast MO. These amounts are not
expected to cause significant flooding problems over a widespread
area. Localized higher amounts /isolated flooding remains possible.

The cold front will move east across the kevv/khop areas around 12z
Friday...ending all precipitation. Strong drying in the wake of the
front should result in mainly sunny skies by afternoon. Temps will
remain nearly steady in the upper 50s to lower 60s through the day.
Friday night will be markedly colder as surface high pressure
provides clear skies and decreasing winds. Some frost or even a
light freeze is possible early Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

After the mid week system makes passage, we cool off for the weekend
and cool temps stick around through the remainder of the long term
portion of the forecast.

Dry weather prevails in a zonal flow pattern through the weekend.
Another system takes shape as a long wave trof carves across the
southern Plains. A surface low develops and lifts across the lower
MS valley, bringing our next bout of rain/showers into/across the
PAH FA mainly Sunday night-Monday. This happens as a broad long wave
trof carves out across the eastern half of the country, with us in
the cool/damp flow underneath.

Net result will be a cool back into the upper 50s and lower 60s for
highs this weekend, continuing into/through next week. Lows likewise
cool back into the 40s with even some upper 30s not out of the
question. These represent values some 10 degrees or more below climo
norms for this time of year.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

Flight terminals are warm sectored now...so cigs/vsbys have returned
to VFR. A piece of energy in the upper flow ejects tonight, and may
result in a round of late night showers/storms that restricts
cigs/vsbys to MVFR. Isolated thunderstorms are capable of IFR
restrictions, but not in prevailing forecast. Stronger action
expected with system passage tomorrow night. Winds become southerly
and increase in speed and gusts tomorrow, on its approach.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

725 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED...BUT VERY INTENSE CONVECTION...SLOWLY WORKING INTO NE
TX. HOWEVER...KTXK AND KTYR MAY NOT SEE THIS CONVECTION UNTIL 03-04Z...
ALTHOUGH CAPPING INVERSION HAS ALMOST DISAPPEARED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...INTENSE DOWNBURSTS...AND
VERY ACTIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LTG STRIKES MAY CONTINUE FOR SVRL
HOURS NEAR STORMS. SOUTH WIND OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY WILL
PRECEDE THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD LAYER. WINDS
BECMG NW AROUND 10 KTS JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF LOW VFR
TO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND FRONT. HOWEVER...DRY LINE ALSO MOVG
ACROSS AREA DURG MORNING HOURS FRI...WITH SKIES BECMG VFR SKC AND
NW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KTS AND GUSTY./VII/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THAT AS OF 2 PM...SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING NEAR 1500-2000J/KG WITH LI`S RANGING FROM -4 TO -6. OUR
SAVING GRACE THUS FAR HAS BEEN SBCIN VALUES RANGING NEAR
100-200J/KG. WHERE THE CAP IS BREAKING IS ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH
AS OF 2 PM WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF ADM...TO JUST WEST OF DTO
AND BWD. MESOANALYSIS CLOSER TO OUR AREA SHOWS THAT OUR REGION OF
LESS CINH WAS ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND THAT IS WHERE WE ARE
STARTING TO GET STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION POP UP THIS AFTN.

WILL BASE THIS EVENTS FORECAST CLOSELY ON THE HRRR FOR THE NEXT
18 TO 24 HOURS AND A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT/LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NAM/WRF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. HRRR SHOWING DRYLINE CONVECTION GROWING AND
INCREASING IN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHER THAN WHAT WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE I-30
CORRIDOR IN THE REGION OF WEAKER CINH...FEEL LIKE THE I-35 DRYLINE
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES BETWEEN
23-01Z. THESE CELLS...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT...
WILL EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THAT ORDER. THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES OF
TORNADO WATCH #52 BY OR SHORTLY CLOSE TO 02Z THIS EVENING WHEN THE
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF S AR/NE
TX AND N LA. IT APPEARS WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z THIS
EVENING WITH CONVECTION REACHING A MLU TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND LINE
BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. BEHIND THE EASTWARD PROPAGATING LINE WILL
LIKELY BE RENEWED CONVECTION ALONG THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR NW MOST ZONES BETWEEN 03-06Z. NOT
EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO BE SEVERE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS
OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE TRUE
FRONT ITSELF. FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE DRYLINE
TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT OUR EXTREME SE PARISHES BY
12Z FRI. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RUNNING FOR OUR SE ZONES IN THE
MORNING BUT ANYTHING THAT`S LEFT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NW GULF COAST
FOR SATURDAY AND BEGINS TO RETURN BACK NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY AS SFC
CYCLOGENESIS FORMS ON THE FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SE TX COAST AND
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARDS MLU SUN EVENING AND
NEAR MEMPHIS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND
EVENT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL RESULT IN OVERRUNNING
CONVECTION AND GIVEN FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS
OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN LIFT
FROM THE COAST ON SUNDAY...THERE COULD BE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY AND ATTM...THAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES OR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LOWER TOLEDO BEND TO
MONROE LOUISIANA LINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE
EVENT GETS NEARER IN TIME. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 56 71 46 67 51 / 70 0 0 20 40
MLU 63 74 46 65 50 / 70 20 0 20 50
DEQ 49 67 38 66 47 / 70 0 0 10 20
TXK 52 68 44 66 49 / 70 0 0 10 30
ELD 56 71 43 66 49 / 70 0 0 10 40
TYR 51 70 46 65 50 / 70 0 0 20 30
GGG 53 70 46 66 50 / 70 0 0 20 30
LFK 57 72 48 67 54 / 50 10 10 30 40

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

638 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND STORMS WILL BECOME SCT TO NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS AND VIS WILL CREATE IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT DURING EARLY TO MID FRIDAY
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT EVERY TERMINAL BY MID DAY
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BECOME NW TO NORTH DURING FRIDAY MORNING
AROUND SUNRISE TO MID MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF JUST
EMERGING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE TO THE SOUTH...A
PACIFIC JET WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BAJA AND NORTHERN MX. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...A 30-40KT LLJ CONTINUES ACROSS EAST TX/WRN LA PER
AREA VWPS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AND INTO THE NE GOMEX. TO THE WEST...A SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER ERN
KS...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT THROUGH ERN OK INTO NORTHERN TX.

LIFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AS REGION FALLS
UNDERNEATH THE DIFLUENT REGION BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF
PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ROUGHLY COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR THE 12HR PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON TOMORROW.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE INDICATIONS THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DEPICTED BY THE RUC AND HRRR MAY BE STARTING...WITH SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED ECHOES STARTING TO APPEAR ON REGIONAL RADARS. THIS DOES
LEND A LITTLE CREDENCE TO NAM/RUC FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED
EROSION OF THE CINH SEEN IN EARLIER RAOBS AROUND THIS TIME. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. IN ANY
EVENT...THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE KEPT SEVERE WORDING IN THE FCST
FOR TONIGHT...AND EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR ACADIANA. THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE POP FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY
TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE ONLY A
SHORT REPRIEVE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FCST TO BEGIN SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER...MORE SOUTHERN TRACKED...UPPER TROF. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
SE TX COAST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS LOUISIANA...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY PULL A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE APPEAR POSSIBLE
FOR A TWO DAY TOTAL...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
RISK SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE MEAN TROF WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS MILD BUT OTHERWISE BENIGN WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WED...THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A
MODERATING TREND BEGINNING THURSDAY.

MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL GULF WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY SEA FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO AND THEN STALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FOR THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW AFFECTS
THE COASTAL WATERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 67 79 56 68 56 / 60 40 10 60 60
KBPT 68 78 57 68 58 / 60 30 10 60 50
KAEX 66 76 51 68 53 / 80 30 10 40 70
KLFT 68 81 57 69 58 / 60 60 20 60 70

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

406 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND SETTLES
OVER NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SITUATED (AS OF 19Z) FROM THE CENTRAL
VA PIEDMONT TO THE BORDER OF SE VA/NE NC. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S FROM THE S-CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT TO NE NC. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER. READINGS AWAY FROM THE COASTS ARE
GENERALLY 65-70...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COASTLINES.

THE FRONT WILL MAKE MORE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING ONCE STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING WANES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N). A RATHER EXTENSIVE MCS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A MOIST
FRONTAL BAND ALOFT...WHICH EXTENDS W-E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. 02/17Z HRRR SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD LINGER E OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER
COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER
40S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT LARGELY REMAINS S OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
ONSHORE FLOW UNDERNEATH WAA ALOFT. THIS WILL ALSO LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S NE...TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S S/SW. HIGHS WILL BE LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NE...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL THE FRONT N AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER THE
MOST RESISTANCE AND WILL BE SLOWEST TO CLEAR THE EXTREME NRN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. HOWEVER...ALL
AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CHC POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED N THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
AREA (AWAY FROM THE COASTS)...WITH UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FOR CENTRAL
PORTIONS. THE EASTERN SHORE WILL BE TRICKIER...PARTIAL CLEARING
COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH INTERIOR PORTIONS INTO THE LOW/MID
70S...WHILE 65-70 WOULD BE MORE REALISTIC WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER. SE FLOW IS LIKELY TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO QB FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY SLIGHT CHC/LOW-END CHC
POPS ARE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE PRIMARY FORCING
PULLS WELL N OF THE AREA. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE
MIDWEST ON MONDAY...LIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY.
AS IT DOES SO IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
QUICKER IN BRINGING PCPN INTO OUR SW COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT AND THE GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT HIGH PCPN
CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT
SLOWING UP AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...WILL HAVE TO CARRY POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE. AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
EAST NEXT WEDNESDAY MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
SAT NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGH SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY IN THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S.

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES
WILL REMAIN OFF THE SE CST THIS AFTN INTO FRI...AS A WEAK FRNTL
BNDRY (WARM FRNT) DROPS INTO THE MID ATLC AND LINGERS OVR THE AREA.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BUT MORE CLOUDS LATER TNGT INTO THU
AFTN...DUE TO THE FRNTL BNDRY AND EASTERLY SFC WINDS. LWRING
CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TO IFR CIGS) AND A CHC OF SHOWERS ESPLY AT
RIC/SBY THU EVENG INTO FRI MORNG. COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FM
THE W LATE FRI...THEN MOVE ACRS THE REGION FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNG
BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS ALL TAF SITES.

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA INTO THURS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 4 FT FRI. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON SAT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NW THEN N AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE W. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA THRESHOLDS ON
THE OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

454 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014

LATEST 19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING NE INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND 850 MB FGEN ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW FROM ERN UPPER MI INTO NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW UPR MI ALONG
OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND ASSOC
INSTABILITY/MIXING HAS CAUSED SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN OVER 35
MPH IN THE PAST HR.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW
QUICKLY LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS Q-VECT DIV AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT FM THE SW WITH APPROACH OF SFC
RDG AXIS. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY LIFTING NE
AND/OR DIMINISHING OVER THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO
RANGE FM AROUND 10F OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FM THE NW WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MIXING TO NEAR 875 MB OFF THE NAM
SNDGS WOULD YIELD HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AND EAST TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F SW AND SCNTRL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES 12Z THU WITH RIDGING OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HEADS INTO THE PLAINS ON THU AND
FORMS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW THU NIGHT OVER IOWA. NAM TAKES THIS LOW
INTO WISCONSIN 00Z SAT AND TO GEORGIAN BAY 12Z SAT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE STARTING ON
THU ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND THIS OVERSPREADS THE CWA BY THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES OUT FIR
NIGHT. NAM SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I290K-I305K AND MOISTURE ON
THU INTO FRI.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE MIXED PCPN TYPE ISSUES TO DEAL WITH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE WILL BE A FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE NORTH HALF WILL SEE
SNOW AND THIS COULD RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW AND THE SOUTH
HALF COULD SEE UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AND 0.20 INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. FOR THIS REASON...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM
WATCH FROM 00Z FRI TO 06Z SAT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS SUPPORTS A MIX
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA AND USED THE GFS MODEL TO FIGURE
THIS. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DELAYED POPS A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH INITIAL DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO BE OVERCOME.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE EARLY SPRING SNOWSTORM WILL BE WINDING DOWN
STARTING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE 500 MB TROUGH
EAST OF THE AREA 12Z SAT. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES 12Z
SAT THAT HEADS INTO THE PLAINS 12Z SUN AND INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
12Z MON. THIS TROUGH HEADS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. WILL
HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY MOSTLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014

WHERE CONDITIONS AREN`T VFR...THEY WILL BECOME VFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRES WELL NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO MOVE NE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
AND DRY AIR MASS DOMINATE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014

THE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT NE OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES OR GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN DIMINISH BLO GALES LATER
TONIGHT AS LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES
BUILDIN OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WED
INTO THU. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR OK THURSDAY MORNING WILL PUSH
NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF LAKE HURON AND INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NE-N GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

130 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING CHANCE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE ALONG WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD. DURING THIS TIME...A WEAKENED
SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE ROCKIES MAKING WAY FOR LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH
STRONGER SURFACE LOW FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. OVERALL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET OTHER THAN A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA BY 06Z FRIDAY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING MSLP ALONG
WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EC/GFS/GEM. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT
INITIALLY LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE U.P. WHICH
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA PUSHING INTO THE CWA. THIS CAN EASILY BE
SEEN BY PLOTTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RH ALONG WITH PRESSURE ON THE
300K ISOSURFACE. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS SHOWN BY THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE 300K ISOSURFACE TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL AHEAD OF
THE LOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...HOWEVER...IN AN AREA STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY
MENOMINEE TO ESCANABA OVER TO NEWBERRY WILL SEE THE SNOW MIX WITH OR
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARMER AIR PUSHES IN JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER PENINSULA BY 12Z FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO BE
STAGGERED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO BE NEAR
SOUTHERN WI AROUND THIS TIME.

THE STRONGEST SYSTEM FORCING WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. ALONG WITH STRONGER FGEN FORCING AT 700MB AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY ALLOWING HEAVY WET SNOW TO DEVELOP...WHILE THE EASTERN U.P.
WILL STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING DUE TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...THANKS TO CONTINUED WAA...HELPING TO KEEP A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THOSE AREAS. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
STEEP THROUGH THE DGZ WITH EPV VALUES AROUND 0 OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW...POSSIBLY LEADING TO THUNDER...BUT DEFINITELY HELPING WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. AGAIN THESE ARE FINER DETAILS WHICH WILL HAVE
TO BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BETWEEN 18Z
FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
LOW BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY STACKED ALLOWING THE LOW TO OCCLUDE. AT
THE SAME TIME WARM AIR ASCENDS AND WRAPS AROUND THE LOW ALLOWING FOR
A TROWAL TYPE SETUP OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE U.P. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS AS IF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WOULD BE UNDER
THE TROWAL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 850MB LOW...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
SNOWFALL RATES...WHILE THE EASTERN U.P. MAY END UP SEEING A BIT OF A
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT TRIES
TO SLIP INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SO THE FINAL LOCATIONS OF
THESE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE MOST MODELS HAVE A
SIMILAR SNOW TRACK...THEY EACH VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE DETAILS WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS EVENT HIGHLIGHTING THE HEAVY
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P. WHILE ALSO
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO SATURDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. INITIALLY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE U.P. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...HOWEVER...AS THE
LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND BRINGING AND END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE LOW AS MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED...A CONSENSUS
APPROACH IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS AT THIS TIME AND
JUST BE AWARE THAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244-245-
250-264>266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

702 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT BENIGN AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. THIS HIGH WILL
QUICKLY BE PUSHED NORTHEAST AS A DEVELOPING CYCLONE USHERS WARM AND
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY. CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM.

FOR TONIGHT...POPS WERE CUT DOWN DUE TO THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN
SOMEWHAT...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THE EC/GEM REMAIN DRY THROUGH 00Z AND THE GFS/NAM HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THEIR ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE EC AND GEM REALLY SOLUTIONS MAKE ME
QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL WILL BE SEEN
TONIGHT...BUT THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT. SO...DIALED THE POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
CATEGORIES THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM WOULD
START OUT AS RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED UP A
HAIR ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SO FREEZING RAIN IS LESS OF A
CONCERN/BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY/ IN THIS AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL IN THE FA OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

ISSUES ABOUND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AS A STORM SYSTEM
IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING HEADS OUR WAY. THE
00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
POSITION...BUT ITS THE ONSET AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THAT PLAYS
HAVOC WITH THE FORECAST THURSDAY AS WELL AS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST THREE RUNS WHILE THE EC HAS DROPPED SOUTHWEST WITH
THE UPPER LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE 02.00Z RUN
RESEMBLING THE FORECAST FROM 01.00Z. THE GFS HAS A WELL DEFINED
DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WEST
CENTRAL MN COUNTIES AS DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING COUPLED JET ALOFT. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED
WITH STRONG UPGLIDE AND ADIABATIC OMEGA WITH MIXING RATIOS IN THE
3 TO 4 G/KG RANGE. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SPREADS IN FROM SD WITH
NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE. THIS WHOLE PACKAGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HENCE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
ON A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF OUR CWA. AT THIS
POINT A WIDE SWATH OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS PROJECTED FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MN...THE TWIN CITIES AND
NORTHERN AREAS OF WI. THIS MAY BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS POINTING AT 12 TO 16 INCHES.

THE LOWEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY ARE 4 TO 6
INCHES FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. THIS IS AN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE CERTAINLY DIFFERENCES IN THE WRF SOLUTIONS THAT
WOULD ARGUE FOR MORE SNOW EARLY ON THURSDAY WHILE SEVERAL
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS POINT TO LITTLE PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR
MUCH FOR THURSDAY. THIS IS AN ISSUE LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO DEAL
WITH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A THREAT FOR THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS
SE MN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH. THE FIRST WAS TO ADD
THE REST OF OUR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. THE SECOND WAS TO
EXTEND THE WATCH FOR EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE LASTING A LITTLE LONGER.

LITTLE TIME TO PONDER THE LONGER TERM. THERE WILL BE SOME
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING IN DEALING WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION TONIGHT. TODAY WILL BE VFR ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN BEING THE WIND DIRECTION AND TIMING AS THEY
TURN EASTERLY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING STORM. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF SUB 5K FT STRATUS DECK AND PRECIPITATION IS LOW DUE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD. TENDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE RAP AS IT SPLIT
THE EC AND GFS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS MEANT DELAYING THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPS A
HEALTHY SUPPLY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE OVERCOME
EVENTUALLY OF COURSE...BUT AT THIS TIME I AM THINKING A LITTLE
SLOWER.

KMSP...WENT WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST THIS PERIOD GIVEN
REASONS STATED ABOVE. AGAIN FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. AS MORE HI-RES MODELS REACH THIS
TIME FRAME...FORECAST SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE. FZRA/SN POSSIBLE. WINDS NE AT
15G20KT.
THU NIGHT. IFR AND SN EXPECTED WITH LIFR +SN LIKELY. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW BEGINNING AFTER 00Z. WINDS NE TO NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...IFR/SN WITH LIFR/+SN POSSIBLE THROUGH 15/18Z. DIMINISHING TO
MVFR BY 21Z. WINDS NNW 20G30KT. SAT...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
WINDS S AT 10KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-049>053-058>063-066>070-076>078-084-
085-093.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-073>075-082-
083-091-092.

WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

959 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE ACCUMULATING SNOW BAND HAS LARGELY PASSED EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL COUNTIES
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

THE ADVISORY END TIME HAS BEEN MOVED UP FROM 4 AM TO MIDNIGHT FOR
THOSE COUNTIES ACROSS OUR EAST THAT ARE STILL UNDER THE ADVISORY.
THE SNOW BAND IS MOVING QUICK ENOUGH THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END ACROSS OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE SNOW HAS COME TO AN END. WE WILL NOT BE
GETTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITHIN OUR ADVISORY AREA...BUT
SINCE IT IS NOW SNOWING AND COMING DOWN PRETTY GOOD AT
TIMES...WILL JUST LET THE ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS. MOST
PLACES WITHIN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE 1 INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS MAY PICK UP 2 INCHES IF THEY CAN GET
UNDER A MORE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW BAND. THE SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO
ACCUMULATE DUE TO NEAR SFC AIR TEMPERATURES OF 32 TO 34F AND
WARMER SOIL TEMPERATURES. IT IS JUST A TOUCH TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING
MORE IMPACTFUL. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS EVENING TO AROUND
FREEZING AND SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON AREA BRIDGES AND ROADWAYS
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
CANCELED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END
LATER THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...A COMPLEX SITUATION IS UNFOLDING WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED DECENT
PRECIP BUT HOW IT FALLS REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN EVEN AS IT`S ON
THE DOORSTEP...

ALOFT: A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF WAS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO NEB/KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND HEADS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW
TOMORROW...HERE ON THE CNTRL PLAINS.

SURFACE: THIS IS THE FIRST SPRING STORM OF THE SEASON...THOUGH
ITS IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED FOR OUR FCST AREA. LOW PRES WAS
OVER ERN KS...SITUATED ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONT. THE FCST AREA WAS
IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS LOW WILL CROSS INTO MO AND BE OVER LAKE
MI BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...MODESTLY DEEPENING OVER THE JOURNEY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SPILL S DOWN THE PLAINS AND INCREASE ITS
INFLUENCE HERE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

NOW: LIFT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING VIA BLOSSOMING RETURNS ON
RADAR. THE TROF IS SHIFTING E AND THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER KANSAS
CITY. CLOUD TOPS ARE MODESTLY COOLING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
EDGES E.

THE HI-RES RAP HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON THE REFLECTIVITY IN THIS
BAND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
4PM- 5PM.

THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION WITH P-TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE WILL
IS SUB-FRZG W OF THE TROF AXIS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER /BL/
IS ABOVE FRZG...THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR AROUND TO ADVECT
IN ...AND PCPN IS NOT FALLING HEAVY ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO OVERCOME
THE WARM BL. THE PCPN INTENSITY WILL DRIVE THE P-TYPE AND AMTS.

THIS MAKES THE FCST DIFFICULT AND PUTS INTO JEOPARDY THE
OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN-SNOW AND
SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMTS.

IF PCPN DOES NOT COME DOWN HEAVILY ENOUGH...WHEN/IF THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS...IT WILL MELT ON CONTACT.

FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOW THRU MIDNIGHT.

HERE IS OUR CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON:
INTERMITTENT DRZL WITH EMBEDDED SHWRS/SLEET OVER S-CNTRL NEB WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A FAIRLY STEADY R AND EVENTUALLY TO S AS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN BAND HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL HOLD STEADY.

TONIGHT: EXPECT BY 7 PM THAT WHATEVER RAIN IS FALLING SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE LOSE SOLAR INPUT ON SFC TEMPS. SNOW WILL END
FROM W- E. IT IS WITH RELUCTANCE THAT I AM KEEPING THE
ADVISORY...MAINLY DUE TO THE VERY LOW POTENTIAL THAT THIS PCPN
COULD OVER-PRODUCE. BE ADVISED THAT SNOWFALL AMTS COULD END UP
BELOW AN INCH AND SOME AREAS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT ACCUMULATE AT
ALL. THE SNOW E OF HWY 81 WILL BE DONE BY 3AM. DECREASING CLOUDS
WILL FOLLOW.

FCST SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO NO MORE THAN 1 INCH AND
I HOPE THIS IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF HAND GIVEN THAT THE
STRONGEST PRES RISES WILL OCCUR S OF I-70. GUSTS COULD REACH 40
MPH AT TIMES...E OF HWY 281 OVER S-CNTRL NEB.

POSSIBLE FCST SHORT-COMINGS FOR NUMEROUS. THE SNOW HAS BEEN
MODERATE AT TIMES TODAY OVER NW KS /CBK/ AND EVEN BRIEFLY AT MCK.
IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE TRANSIENT HEAVIER SNOW BANDS COULD
SWING THRU N- CNTRL KS.

TOMORROW: SUNNY AND TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. USED BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND OF MODEL 2M TEMPS AND THE PREVIOUS GID FCST. THIS
RAISED HIGHS 3-4.

FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING TO NEARLY 700 MB. SO DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWERED BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES...AND
THERE MAY BE MORE DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL INTO THE UPR TEENS.

WINDS WILL BE BRZY IN THE MORNING...GUSTING 30-35 MPH E OF HWY
281. BUT WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

MAIN CONCERNS WILL FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SAT NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLUCTUATE
DURING THE PERIOD IN QUESTION.

STARTING OFF FRIDAY EVENING LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR REGION SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR
REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUT THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN ROCKIES AT THAT TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH LEE TROUGHING
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE
WINDS SWITCHING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. END UP WITH A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THUS IT WILL BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY
SIDE ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY
BROAD...SLOW MOVING TROUGH WITH THE 500 MB AXIS OVER THE CENTER OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z MON. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE TROUGH...OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES ROTATE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES POINT
TO ALL LIQUID. ALSO...INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH FORECAST MU-CAPES BELOW 100 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS BETTER JUST TO
THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE TRANSITION DAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE EAST. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE WARMER AIR TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION...BUT WED AND THURSDAY SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A NICE WARMUP WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE 70S WHICH
WOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 9 PM AND THEN QUICKLY COME TO AN
END. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK INTO VFR AS
THE SNOW ENDS. THE WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR NEZ041-
048-049-063.

KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...WESELY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

753 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SSW
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SERN STATES NWD
INTO NRN MICHIGAN. A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...A 50 TO 80 KT JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM SRN AZ INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO NWRN OK. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTH SOUTHWEST FROM THE
LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED INVOF OF A MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
FROM WESTERN HOLT COUNTY INTO FRONTIER COUNTY. FURTHER
WEST...CLEARING WAS PRESENT...AND HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 34 AT
ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW...TO 43 AT THEDFORD AND OGALLALA.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

AS INDICATED BY RADAR TIMING TOOLS AND THE RAP MODEL...SNOW HAS
EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

SOUTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION DISRUPTED THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AS A RESULT THE SNOW BAND HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY
AS FIRST THOUGHT. THIS WAS A POSSIBILITY AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY.
WILL CONTINUE THE GOING HEADLINES...AS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA FROM ONEILL TO BROKEN BOW AND
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS ACTUALLY BEGUN TO
BACK WEST SOME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS AREA...AND PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN INCREASING. EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
FROM HOLT COUNTY...SOUTH THROUGH WHEELER AND EASTERN CUSTER
COUNTIES. LATE TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
SKIES CLEARING.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -2C AT ONEILL TO 7C AT
IMPERIAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WELL ON SUNDAY.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND SERN WYOMING. SRLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...LEADING TO A FAIRLY
MILD NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION
TO WIND...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING UPPR LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. SRLY WINDS WILL CARRY OVER
INTO SATURDAY WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST INVOF OF A
STALLED OUT BOUNDARY. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10C
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ARE ON
TRACK. ONLY CONCERN MAY BE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WHICH WILL INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL LIFT INTO WRN KS/SATURDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES IN THE SWRN CWA...TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
ATTM...THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE NWRN CWA
AND ARE COLLOCATED WITH NEGATIVE LI`S SATURDAY EVE...HOWEVER BL
MOISTURE IS VERY MEAGER ON SATURDAY...ESP IN THE NW...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM. ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WERE GENERALLY
LEFT UNCHANGED FROM THE PVS FCST AS THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL
AND NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I DID ADJUST THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
ACROSS THE SWRN CWA BASED ON WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE LI`S AND
STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
EAST INTO THE OZARKS. ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG NRN
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
WITH THE THREAT LINGERING IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING. IN LIGHT OF
THE MID LEVEL FORCING AND COLD FROPA MONDAY...WILL LEAVE THIS
MENTION IN THE ONGOING FCST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING EAST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
TUESDAY...READINGS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE LATEST MID RANGE MODEL SOLNS ARE
INDICATING A COLD FROPA WHICH WILL DROP OUR HIGHS BACK INTO THE
60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN NEB ARE MASKED BY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THEY ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM KLBF AS
INDICATED BY MOST MODELS. THE RAP MODEL HOWEVER IS WRAPPING THE
MVFR CIGS DIRECTLY SOUTH INTO KLBF THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
NORTHWEST WINDS UNDERWAY...IT WOULD APPEAR KLBF WILL REMAIN VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN. THE MVFR CIGS UP NORTH ARE EXPECTED
TO MIX OUT TO VFR FRIDAY MORNING 15Z-18Z.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

744 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014