Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/04/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
957 AM PDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY
PROVIDING FOR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND PROVIDE FOR A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON 12Z RAOB DATA...CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR DATA...AND HRRR
RUNS HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. FIRST
WAS TO CANCEL ADVY FOR THE SIERRA. SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY ENDED
THERE AND NELY FLOR IS NOW TAKING HOLD. I EXPECT TO SEE MORE
SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVY LEVELS AND BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FURTHER
SOUTH...EXTENDED THE ADVY IN KERN COUNTY UNTIL 21Z/2PM. SNOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO HANG LOWER AND WITH EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THREAT OF SNOW AT PASS LEVEL CAN/T BE
DISCOUNTED. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA TO A
SLIVER OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY BASED ON HRRR RUNS...SREF
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...AND BUFR POINT SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA.
WILL BE HARD TO SEE ANY STORMS FURTHER NORTH AS MID-LEVELS WILL
ALREADY BE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A MODEST MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE CAP TO DEVELOP.
PREVIOUS...
SINCE THE PREVAILING AIRMASS IS UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY APRIL
(BELOW -30 DEG C AT 500 MB AND BELOW -10 DEG C AT 700 MB)...HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 10-15 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY AND
PROVIDES OUR AREA WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD 5-10 DEG F BUT STILL BLOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE PAC NW AND NORCAL ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRINGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...IT WILL PROVIDE FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A DRY UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OFF THE CA COAST.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING
TO STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY THEN BUILD THE
RIDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ON
SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE.
THE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY AND PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 04-02 87:1985 56:1907 57:2011 34:1982
KFAT 04-03 91:2000 52:1958 56:1933 33:1964
KFAT 04-04 88:1952 54:1976 57:1961 33:1999
KBFL 04-02 90:1985 57:1981 60:2002 35:1999
KBFL 04-03 90:1961 53:1965 62:1966 35:1955
KBFL 04-04 90:1971 58:1924 62:1961 34:1914
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 3500
FEET FOR THE CAZ095.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...INIGUEZ
AVN/FW...JDB
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...JDB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
752 PM MDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LINGERED INTO THE EVENING HOURS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. ADDED POPS FOR THIS EARLIER. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT THE SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN.
EXPECT THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS TO END AROUND 9PM IF THIS WEAKENING
TREND CONTINUES.
CAN`T RULE OUT FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP FOG OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LATEST RAP INDICATES THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
NOT BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR FOG. IF ANY FOG DEVELOPS...EXPECT IT TO BE
IN LOW LYING AREAS...LIKE ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY 03Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE AROUND AND NEAR THE SHOWERS.
ONCE THE SHOWERS...END WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY 06Z. CEILINGS
UNDER THE SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 6000 FEET.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG AFTER 09Z. SINCE CHANCE FOR
FOG IS LOW WILL HANDLE IT WITH A VCFG IN THE TAFS. BEST CHANCE
FOR FOG WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY NORTH OF
DENVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM MDT THU APR 3 2014/
SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH UPPER LOW
NEAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT ON BACK
SIDE OF TROUGH OVER MUCH OF PLAINS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS. WINDS LESS WESTWARD TOWARD FOOTHILLS. EARLIER
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST AN SOUTHEAST
OF THE CFWA. CURRENTLY SOME INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY
NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
THE SHOWERS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT AND NOT PRODUCING MUCH
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS WERE A BIT ROBUST. TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS
EVENING WITH DRIER. AND SUBSIDENT AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
AIRMASS TO BECOME STABLE WHICH SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THE SHOWERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. GRADIENT WILL
ALSO BE WEAKENING...WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS. MAY STILL BE A BIT
GUSTY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CLEARING
SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE HELPING TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES A BIT. DID LOWER MINS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE GOOD SNOWFALL
OCCURRED. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GETTING MORE EXCITED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP
WITH GOOD DRAINAGE AND KEEP ANY FOG CONFINED TO LOW LYING AREAS.
KEPT FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
ON FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. AIRMASS WARMER WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE
MOISTURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY.
MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY MOUNTAIN QPF. ONLY THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS MINOR QPF BY 00Z. WITH FAIRLY SUBSIDENT AND
STABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WITH THE UPPER RIDGE...NOT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PLAINS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...DID LOWER
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
LONG TERM...DISORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
THIS WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT BAD...THOUGH THIS MORNINGS
NAM WAS AN OUTLIER DEVELOPING A TIGHT SMALL SCALE LOW AND
RESULTING HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY.
DISCARDED THIS AND WENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING TWO BROAD
AREAS OF LIFT...ONE MOVING ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DRIVEN
BY WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THEN
ANOTHER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND
BETTER INSTABILITY. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN OR SNOW OVERALL...THOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY SHOWER BANDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. I DID
RAISE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH. WITHOUT
MUCH COOLING YET EXPECT MOST OF THE PLAINS SHOWERS WILL BE RAIN ON
SATURDAY...THEN A MIX AFTER THAT.
THERE IS A LITTLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF A TROUGH
DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. GFS BRINGS SOME CLOUDS AND A
BIT MORE COOLING...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER. BUT BOTH BRING A
COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY BUT TRIM TEMPERATURES BACK ON MONDAY. THEN THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. AGAIN SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH WARMING TUESDAY...CONSENSUS APPROACH IS
FINE HERE. HELD ON TO LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE
WARMEST DAY...IT COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF IT WINDS UP BEING SUNNY
WITH A LITTLE WIND. MODEL TREND IS TOWARD SOME FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK...NOT SURE IF THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER
OR IF THAT WILL WAIT FOR A MORE DEFINITE FRONT BY FRIDAY...BUT
A LITTLE COOLING SEEMS IN ORDER.
AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET AGL AS THEY PASS THROUGH.
THESE INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO QUICKLY END AFTER 00Z AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES AND DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE EVENING...BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS DRAINAGE DEVELOPS.
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT KDEN
BEFORE THE DRAINAGE OCCURS. CEILINGS TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z. APPEARS THAT DRAINAGE WINDS TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM AFFECTING THE AIRPORTS. BEST CHANCE FOR
THE FOG WILL BE NORTH OF DENVER. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCFG BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z FOR NOW. WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 15Z FRIDAY...MAY
BE MORE SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA AFTER 18Z. SOME INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...CEILINGS TO REMAIN
ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....GIMMESTAD
UPDATE/AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1016 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
DRY SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. EVALUATING 0Z SOUNDINGS...
CHATHAM IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY WHILE UPTON NY EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLY
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR BENEATH H6. DECENT ISENTROPIC FLOW IS NOTED PER
THE LATEST RAP/HRRR ABOVE H8 ALONG THE 290-295K SURFACES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM-FRONT WHICH IS DRAPED NW-SE IN
VICINITY OF THE DC-METRO AREA. BROADSCALE ASCENT AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN SUBSEQUENTLY ENCROACHING INTO THE NYC TRI-STATE REGION PER
LIFT.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...FAVOR THE NEAR-
TERM TRENDS IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TOWARDS THE SOUTH
AND WEST. LATEST HRRR DOES TRY TO SLIDE THE PRECIP SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTH AND EAST PARENT WITH THE ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THRU
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN. PERHAPS PRECIP CAN ENCROACH AS FAR NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE WORCESTER REGION. BUT ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR WILL
KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT AND THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
ELONGATE WHILE SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST LOSING ITS EFFECTIVENESS IN
AIDING IN ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING THE EXTENT OF
PRECIP TO DISSIPATE TO SOME DEGREE TOWARDS MORNING.
SO LIKELY POPS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. BUSTING
ON THE HIGH TEMPS WITH THE FORECAST LAST NIGHT /DANG NAB/...THE
WARMER CONDITIONS EARLIER TODAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PRECIP
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING REMAINING IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LITTLE
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN /IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED/.
WHILE COOLING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE LOW-
LEVELS MOISTEN ATTENDANT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW PRESENTLY BEING
OBSERVED...THE GROUND REMAINS CONSIDERABLY WARM FROM EARLIER IN
THE DAY. TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FALLING WHERE CLEARING IS PRESENT SO
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR. LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-
30S LOOK TO REMAIN ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND PUSHING A
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF
FRIDAY TO BE DRY EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN CT AND SOUTHWEST MA WHERE
THE WARM FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW...TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE A LOT
COOLER THEN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS TO START BEFORE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THERE IS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF IN THE SHOWERY WEATHER...AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH. PRECIP WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP
ONLY SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY MIX BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM UP. ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THE
ISLANDS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED THUNDER AS TT ARE
ABOVE 50 AND SHOWALTERS DROP BELOW 0.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN FRIDAY AND DIGS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY-MONDAY. SOME PHASING OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS MIDWEEK MAY ALLOW SOME COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA...A COOLER PERIOD BUT JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE.
THE DAILIES...
SATURDAY... COLD FRONT LINGERS ALONG THE EAST MASS COAST AT THE
START OF SATURDAY MORNING...SO THERE COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS
OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. INCREASINGLY GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD BRING
IN DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES. UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY NIGHT BRINGING COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. THIS WILL
PROMOTE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO BRING WIND GUSTS DOWN FROM AT LEAST 900
MB...POSSIBLY FROM 850 MB. THIS WOULD SUPPORT GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN
THE 50S.
SUNDAY-MONDAY... UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD WITH
SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY.
FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. F0RECAST TEMPS AT
850 MB AND 900 MB SUGGEST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE
F0RECAST SFC TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 50S. IF MIXING ONLY OCCURS IN THE
LOWEST 2000 FEET THEN THE COOLER TEMPS ARE REASONABLE...BUT IF
MIXING IS DEEPER SUCH AS TO 900 OR 850 MB THEN THE WARMER TEMPS
WOULD BE A BETTER FIT. WE HAVE STAYED WITH THE COOLER NUMBERS FOR
NOW BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE GENERATES
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY AND THEN
LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THIS BRINGS PCPN
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS MEASURABLE PCPN TO CONNECTICUT AROUND 21Z/5 PM OR LATER.
THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER/ECMWF A TAD SLOWER. WE BROUGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5PM-9PM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
AT ALL LEVELS...SO PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN. BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS
BRING THE SURFACE LOW UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING TUESDAY AND
SWING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THAT
WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. PCPN
THEN TAPERS OFF DURING TUESDAY. ENOUGH MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON TO
BRING 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
DRY WEATHER. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS THAN EARLY WEEK...BUT TEMPS ALOFT
SUGGEST TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS WINDS SWITCHED TO
A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY MOVE INTO
WESTERN CT AND SW MASS OVERNIGHT ALONG A WARM FRONT.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR/IFR
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FOG AND SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON POSSIBLE
PRECIP POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS SATURDAY.
COULD BE LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MORNING CAPE COD/ISLANDS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 60-70 KNOTS ABOVE THE SURFACE...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND ISLANDS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SEAS AND WINDS WILL TREND HIGHER AS AN WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
SCA CONTINUES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATER
ON REACHING ABOVE 5 FT ON THE WATERS. WINDS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 30KTS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH
MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WINDS TUESDAY.
SATURDAY...GUSTY WEST WINDS AS COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 5-8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS MAY LINGER SUNDAY MORNING
ON THE OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE THE TREND WILL BE FOR DIMINISHING
WIND AND SEAS.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...INCREASING EAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS JUST 1000-2000 FEET
ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE...SOME OF WHICH MAY CREATE SOUTHWEST GALES
OF 40-45 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ARE AT CREST OR GRADUALLY FALLING. WILL SEE A CONTINUANCE
OF RIVERS FALLING BELOW FLOOD STAGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD FORECAST STATEMENTS OR PLEASE GO TO THE
WEB PAGE HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX/PHP?WFO=BOX...THIS
WILL DISPLAY STATUS OF OBSERVATIONS. FOR THE MAP WITH MAX FORECAST
CREST CLICK ON THE RIVER FORECASTS TAB.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1046 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...AND THEN
SINK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...AND LIGHT RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE
NJ AND INTO NYC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME LOCALLY MODERATE
RAIN APPEARS TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HRRR MODEL. LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF QPF IS LIKELY...WITH
RAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO NYC AND LONG ISLAND. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING LONG ISLAND BY MID AFTERNOON.
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT W-NW...GUSTING
BRIEFLY TO 20-25 MPH FROM NYC WEST. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 60S FROM NYC WEST...AND 55-60 FOR LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SE FROM ONTARIO AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE OH VALLEY BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS. LOW TEMPS ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...ATTM SIDED WITH THE
COLDER NAM MOS GUIDANCE...WITH LOWS 40-45 IN NYC...UPPER 30S
JUST OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...AND 30-35 ELSEWHERE.
IF CLOUD COVER WINS OUT THEN WARMER GFS MOS LOWS 35-40 WOULD
PREVAIL WELL INLAND.
SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST ON THU AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR A LITTLE COOLER THOSE OF
TODAY...MOSTLY 55-60.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW AND MID-LEVEL PVA WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS WILL PROBABLY
BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RIDGING ALOFT AND RELATIVELY HIGHER SURFACE
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. FEEL THAT LIGHT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR
ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WESTERNMOST ZONES WOULD THEN
HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING. CLOUD COVER AND AN EAST
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE THURS NIGHT...AND
HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S DURING FRIDAY.
RAINFALL LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS A SECONDARY
LOW/TRIPLE POINT FORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. THE LOW CENTER THEN PASSES THROUGH AND EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
AT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE COULD RESULT IN
AN ISOLATED TSTM MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MOST OF THE AREA COULD
BE DRY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...HOWEVER STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO START THE DAY FOR THE EASTERNMOST ZONES. DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS.
THE DRY WEATHER LASTS AT LEAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN ONCE
AGAIN...A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BEFORE
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG IT AND PASSES NEARBY OR THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT. CAPPED POPS AT 50% FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT TUESDAY COULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. BUT FOR TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE LEFT IN A CHANCE OF RAINFALL. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONT SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO RANGE FOR
TIMING OF FROPA IS RATHER LARGE...AROUND 16Z WEST TO 00Z EAST.
LATEST RADAR INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS WITH KEWR...KJFK...AND KISP...MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LIGHT RAIN. WITH UNCERTAINTY USED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BEST TIMING OF
LIGHT RAIN. NO IMPACTS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND WIND WILL BE LIGHT...LESS
THAN 10KT...AND DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE...HOWEVER...GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY. LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE LATE...AFT
20Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU-FRI NIGHT. A CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ON MOST OF THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
BY SAT MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE...AND COULD TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE BELOW
5 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A TOTAL OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1017 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...AND THEN
SINK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...AND LIGHT RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE
NJ AND INTO NYC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME LOCALLY MODERATE
RAIN APPEARS TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HRRR MODEL. LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF QPF IS LIKELY...WITH
RAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO NYC AND LONG ISLAND. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING LONG ISLAND BY MID AFTERNOON.
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT W-NW...GUSTING
BRIEFLY TO 20-25 MPH FROM NYC WEST. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 60S FROM NYC WEST...AND 55-60 FOR LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SE FROM ONTARIO AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE OH VALLEY BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS. LOW TEMPS ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...ATTM SIDED WITH THE
COLDER NAM MOS GUIDANCE...WITH LOWS 40-45 IN NYC...UPPER 30S
JUST OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...AND 30-35 ELSEWHERE.
IF CLOUD COVER WINS OUT THEN WARMER GFS MOS LOWS 35-40 WOULD
PREVAIL WELL INLAND.
SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST ON THU AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR A LITTLE COOLER THOSE OF
TODAY...MOSTLY 55-60.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW AND MID-LEVEL PVA WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS WILL PROBABLY
BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RIDGING ALOFT AND RELATIVELY HIGHER SURFACE
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. FEEL THAT LIGHT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR
ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WESTERNMOST ZONES WOULD THEN
HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING. CLOUD COVER AND AN EAST
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE THURS NIGHT...AND
HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S DURING FRIDAY.
RAINFALL LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS A SECONDARY
LOW/TRIPLE POINT FORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. THE LOW CENTER THEN PASSES THROUGH AND EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
AT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE COULD RESULT IN
AN ISOLATED TSTM MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MOST OF THE AREA COULD
BE DRY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...HOWEVER STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO START THE DAY FOR THE EASTERNMOST ZONES. DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS.
THE DRY WEATHER LASTS AT LEAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN ONCE
AGAIN...A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BEFORE
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG IT AND PASSES NEARBY OR THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT. CAPPED POPS AT 50% FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT TUESDAY COULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. BUT FOR TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE LEFT IN A CHANCE OF RAINFALL. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONT SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO RANGE FOR
TIMING OF FROPA IS RATHER LARGE...AROUND 16Z WEST TO 00Z EAST.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING NYC TERMS/KISP WILL GET BRUSHED BY
LIGHT RAIN SO MAINTAINED IT IN THE 12Z TAFS. REMOVED FROM KSWF AND
KEPT VCSH AT KBDR AS IT MAY GET CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. KGON SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.
WIND DIRECTIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING. A LIGHT ELY
FLOW CURRENTLY PREVAILS WHERE THERE IS WIND...BUT EXPECT THEM TO
BECOME SWLY AS THE FRONT NEARS THIS MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTS POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND FROPA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
DIRECTIONS SHIFTING ACROSS THE 310 MAG BOUNDARY TODAY MODERATE AT
BEST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE LATE...AFT 20Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
DIRECTIONS SHIFTING ACROSS THE 310 MAG BOUNDARY TODAY MODERATE AT
BEST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
DIRECTIONS SHIFTING ACROSS THE 310 MAG BOUNDARY TODAY MODERATE AT
BEST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU-FRI NIGHT. A CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ON MOST OF THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
BY SAT MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE...AND COULD TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE BELOW
5 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A TOTAL OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
643 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2014
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Occasionally dense fog will continue to
impact KTLH, KDHN, and KECP through mid-morning. Expect to see
conditions occasionally drop to airport minimums. Thereafter, VFR
conditions expected through the day, with possible visibility
restrictions once again late tonight.
&&
.Prev Discussion [518 AM EDT]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Dense fog has gradually become more widespread this morning over
the Panhandle and SE Alabama. Latest HRRR suggests the fog will
continue to slowly spread north and east, persisting through mid-
morning. With 1/4 mile visibilities becoming more common, have
issued Dense Fog Advisory through 14z.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
The large scale pattern commences amplified with positively
tilted trough over Wrn 1/3rd and ridge over Ern 2/3rd of Conus
into the Wrn Atlc with axis down Ern seaboard. At surface...low
over KS with cold front Swd into TX. Strong high in Atlc east of
FL/GA with ridging back across Nrn Gulf region. Locally this
translates to onshore flow sfc-to H7 with WNW flow aloft. Despite
onshore flow...area PWATs only about 0.5-0.6 inches. However with
dew points ranging from mid 50s AL/GA to low 60s coast...expect
mild mins (matching dew points by sunrise). Areas of fog will
develop...portions of which may be dense.
During the rest of the period...Wrn trough will strengthen and
become negatively tilted as it moves Ewd in to the Plains on Thurs.
Assocd low lifts Newd into Great Lakes thru Fri with trough axis
into Wrn Gulf region. Vigorous shortwave to move thru Lwr MS Valley
with dynamics likely to remain to our north. All this pushes Ern
ridge progressively into the Wrn Atlc. At surface...beneath upper
divergence low strengthens and lifts Newd dragging cold front E/SE
and pushing high further into Atlc. By sunrise Fri...front to
TN/LWR MS Valley with squall line ahead of it. All this places
local area increasingly in warm sector with increasing clouds each
day and increasing fog chances at night and early morning.
However...with trough/surface low lifting into Great Lakes...front
should weaken and decelerate and not reach local area until Fri
aftn. Some strong storms possible Wrn CWA but severe storms are not
forecasted.
Largely rain free forecast until slight chance of rain Wrn counties
during the predawn hours of Fri then 40-0% NW-SE shwrs/tstms
gradient on Fri. Warm onshore flow ahead of trough/front will keep
inland max temps in the low to mid 80s....5 to 8 degrees above
climo. Weak gradient should allow for seabreeze to temper coastal
temps...generally closer to 70 degrees. Mild lows Thurs night in
the mid to upper 50s except around 60 at the coast.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]...
A series of shortwave troughs will impact the Tri-State region
throughout the extended range forecast. Our best chance for
stronger storms will be early next week with when a shortwave is
forecast to dig deeper into the Southeast, with the surface low
forecast to skirt the northern Gulf coast. Regardless of the
evolution of severe weather, expect two rounds of showers through
the period. The first will be Friday evening through Saturday,
with the second round Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will
remain near average on both sides of the clock Friday through
Tuesday.
.Marine...
Winds and seas will likely remain below headline levels through
the weekend. Early next week a strong frontal system will yield at
least cautionary conditions across our Gulf waters.
.Fire Weather...
Low-level moisture will be on the gradual increase today with light
onshore flow (especially over the western half of the area). This
modest increase in moisture should keep humidity values above
critical levels, with no Red Flag headlines needed.
.Hydrology...
The Apalachicola at Blountstown is currently at 16.2 feet and will
remain in minor flood stage until to night. The Choctawhatchee
River at Caryville is currently at 12.4 feet and will remain in
minor flood stage until this afternoon. The Choctawhatchee at
Bruce is forecast to reach minor flood stage this evening.
Elsewhere...several other rivers in the CWA remain in action stage.
The next chance for rain is on Friday.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 85 54 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 10 20
Panama City 75 61 70 63 76 / 0 10 10 10 30
Dothan 82 57 81 59 81 / 0 0 0 10 40
Albany 84 56 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 10 30
Valdosta 84 56 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 10 20
Cross City 83 54 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 74 60 72 63 76 / 0 0 10 10 20
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
Walton-Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...BLOCK/WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
518 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2014
...Dense Fog Advisory through 9am CDT for SE Alabama and Florida
Panhandle...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Dense fog has gradually become more widespread this morning over
the Panhandle and SE Alabama. Latest HRRR suggests the fog will
continue to slowly spread north and east, persisting through mid-
morning. With 1/4 mile visibilities becoming more common, have
issued Dense Fog Advisory through 14z.
&&
.Prev Discussion [357 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
The large scale pattern commences amplified with positively
tilted trough over Wrn 1/3rd and ridge over Ern 2/3rd of Conus
into the Wrn Atlc with axis down Ern seaboard. At surface...low
over KS with cold front Swd into TX. Strong high in Atlc east of
FL/GA with ridging back across Nrn Gulf region. Locally this
translates to onshore flow sfc-to H7 with WNW flow aloft. Despite
onshore flow...area PWATs only about 0.5-0.6 inches. However with
dew points ranging from mid 50s AL/GA to low 60s coast...expect
mild mins (matching dew points by sunrise). Areas of fog will
develop...portions of which may be dense.
During the rest of the period...Wrn trough will strengthen and
become negatively tilted as it moves Ewd in to the Plains on Thurs.
Assocd low lifts Newd into Great Lakes thru Fri with trough axis
into Wrn Gulf region. Vigorous shortwave to move thru Lwr MS Valley
with dynamics likely to remain to our north. All this pushes Ern
ridge progressively into the Wrn Atlc. At surface...beneath upper
divergence low strengthens and lifts Newd dragging cold front E/SE
and pushing high further into Atlc. By sunrise Fri...front to
TN/LWR MS Valley with squall line ahead of it. All this places
local area increasingly in warm sector with increasing clouds each
day and increasing fog chances at night and early morning.
However...with trough/surface low lifting into Great Lakes...front
should weaken and decelerate and not reach local area until Fri
aftn. Some strong storms possible Wrn CWA but severe storms are not
forecasted.
Largely rain free forecast until slight chance of rain Wrn counties
during the predawn hours of Fri then 40-0% NW-SE shwrs/tstms
gradient on Fri. Warm onshore flow ahead of trough/front will keep
inland max temps in the low to mid 80s....5 to 8 degrees above
climo. Weak gradient should allow for seabreeze to temper coastal
temps...generally closer to 70 degrees. Mild lows Thurs night in
the mid to upper 50s except around 60 at the coast.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]...
A series of shortwave troughs will impact the Tri-State region
throughout the extended range forecast. Our best chance for
stronger storms will be early next week with when a shortwave is
forecast to dig deeper into the Southeast, with the surface low
forecast to skirt the northern Gulf coast. Regardless of the
evolution of severe weather, expect two rounds of showers through
the period. The first will be Friday evening through Saturday,
with the second round Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will
remain near average on both sides of the clock Friday through
Tuesday.
.Marine...
Winds and seas will likely remain below headline levels through
the weekend. Early next week a strong frontal system will yield at
least cautionary conditions across our Gulf waters.
.Fire Weather...
Low-level moisture will be on the gradual increase today with light
onshore flow (especially over the western half of the area). This
modest increase in moisture should keep humidity values above
critical levels, with no Red Flag headlines needed.
.Hydrology...
The Apalachicola at Blountstown is currently at 16.2 feet and will
remain in minor flood stage until to night. The Choctawhatchee
River at Caryville is currently at 12.4 feet and will remain in
minor flood stage until this afternoon. The Choctawhatchee at
Bruce is forecast to reach minor flood stage this evening.
Elsewhere...several other rivers in the CWA remain in action stage.
The next chance for rain is on Friday.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 85 54 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 10 20
Panama City 75 61 70 63 76 / 0 10 10 10 30
Dothan 82 57 81 59 81 / 0 0 0 10 40
Albany 84 56 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 10 30
Valdosta 84 56 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 10 20
Cross City 83 54 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 74 60 72 63 76 / 0 0 10 10 20
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
Walton-Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...BLOCK/WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
923 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FORECAST.
FOR TONIGHT...THICKENING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP INHIBIT GOOD RADIATION AL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE
RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP OFF.
FOR FRIDAY...THE HIGH RESO MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCALLY RUN
WRF ARE SLOWING DOWN THE APPROACHING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A
FROPA TOMORROW. THE HRRR IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE WRF...AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF RUNS FROM EARLIER. HAVE TRIED
TO TAKE A BLEND..BUT LEANED PRETTY HEAVILY TOWARDS A HRRR AND SREF
BLEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FRONT PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. AS FOR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATTENDANT FRONT TRAILING DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA...WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT KIND OF BREAKING OFF
FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...STALLING ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...TEMPORARILY...ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN A HYBRID
DAMMING EVENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BUT BACK TO THE
SHORT TERM...
SHOULD SEE A QLCS ONGOING OVERNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEW
HIRES GUIDANCE IS DELAYING START OF THE CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...SO DELAYED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER EXTREME NORTHWEST BEFORE 12Z. AFTER
THAT...LOOKS LIKE THE QLCS WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST...
WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE QLCS. BEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE WOULD OF COURSE BE WITH THE QLCS ITSELF. SPC
CONTINUES DAY2 SLIGHT RISK FOR NORTH GEORGIA...WITH GFS BEING A
LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH SEVERE PARAMETERS THAN NAM. AT 12Z...GFS
HAS 100-200 J/KG MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 50-60KT 0-6KM SHEAR AND
AROUND 30KT 0-1KM SHEAR ALL NOSING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA. BY 18Z...
MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM ATLANTA NORTHWEST WITH AROUND 50KT
0-6KM SHEAR AND 25-30KT 0-1KM SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MOVES OUT AFTER
THAT POINT WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINING IN NORTH GEORGIA CLOSER
TO THE UPPER WAVE AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAX CAPE VALUES
DECREASING AS IT SPREADS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TOWARD 00Z. SO WITH
ALL THAT...MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS BUT ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH GEORGIA WITH THAT AMOUNT OF SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. GFS SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER AT 18Z
MAXES OUT IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA WITH VALUES OVER 3. NAM AGAIN NOT SO
IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY SPOTTY AREAS OF STP OVER 1. A LARGE AREA OF
SHERB /PARAMETER FOR HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE CONVECTION/ GREATER THAN 1
/CRITICAL THRESHOLD...LIKE STP/ PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
TOMORROW AS WELL.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WITH
QPF VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. AS ALWAYS LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS. THE SYSTEM
COMING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS TOMORROW SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT SIMILAR HIGHS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
NOTICEABLY COOLER FROM ATLANTA NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
TDP
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS SHOW NO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES FROM RECENT
PREVIOUS RUNS. ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS AT
THIS TIME IS MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
20
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE STATE DURING THE SHORT TERM IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM AND MOVE INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM AS ITS EXITING THE AREA...
BUT THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVERALL SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING TREND.
THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY AND A WEDGE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN
THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY...THE RAIN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. NEXT SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...AS THEY BOTH TRACK IT NORTH OF GEORGIA...BUT
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM RETURNS ON SUNDAY...MORE ACTIVE TIME PERIOD APPEARS TO BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THUS FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY UP TO 250 J/KG
OF MUCAPE SHOWN IN THE GFS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE THOUGH WITH 40 TO 50KTS AT 12Z MONDAY WHILE THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ALSO STRONG...HOWEVER THE LOW CAPE VALUES WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY..THE INSTABILITY INCREASES
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH AROUND 35KTS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. COULD SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO SOME
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT COULD REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
11
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CIGS SHOULD LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT TO IFR VALUES AFTER 06Z. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE TIMING
HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS...AND HAVE PUSHED BACK
THE LINE AN HOUR. HAVE ALSO KEPT SKIES CLOUDY MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND TIMING OF PRECIP. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 57 78 51 70 / 5 60 40 10
ATLANTA 60 75 51 68 / 10 70 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 55 70 44 65 / 20 90 40 5
CARTERSVILLE 59 74 46 66 / 20 80 40 10
COLUMBUS 61 78 55 71 / 5 60 50 20
GAINESVILLE 58 72 49 69 / 20 80 50 10
MACON 57 80 55 74 / 5 40 40 20
ROME 59 75 46 67 / 30 90 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 55 76 50 69 / 10 60 40 10
VIDALIA 59 83 62 75 / 5 10 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
710 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
.UPDATE...
Isolated severe tstms are still possible this evening in the PAH
forecast area as a mid-level cap begins to erode. The main event
will be with the approach of a cold front around midnight. Updated
aviation section.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
Main concern in the short term is severe weather and flooding
potential tonight.
Over the past 24 hours...three convective complexes have affected
parts of the forecast area. These complexes were forecast very
poorly by the models...including the high res mesoscale models.
Based on the poor track record of the models...there is not a high
degree of confidence in the evolution of convection tonight.
Widespread convection earlier today stabilized much of southern
Illinois...southwest Indiana...and northwest Kentucky. To the
south of this activity...SPC objective analysis charts indicate
surface based capes from 1000 to 2000 j/kg as of 19z...but also
some convective inhibition. NAM/RAP model soundings indicate a
warm layer around 750 to 800 mb that may be capping development.
This warm layer will erode this evening...but then lapse rates
below 850 mb become poor.
By 04z widespread convection will develop or move into the
forecast area as a potent 500 mb shortwave over the Plains lifts
northeast...producing strong deep layer forcing in a very moist
environment. RAP forecast soundings indicate the low level jet
will increase to 60 knots as it shifts east to the Mississippi
River around or shortly after 00z. In general...shear profiles and
hodographs will become more favorable for supercells by
00z...especially west of the Kentucky Lake region. The potential
limiting factor will be low to mid level lapse rates...as noted
above.
Wind fields will become more unidirectional late this
evening...as evidenced by curved hodographs becoming more straight
line. This will result in a transition to a linear /qlcs/ storm
mode...with damaging straight line winds the primary threat.
Isolated qlcs tornadoes will be possible.
Convective complexes over the past 24 hours have produced locally
heavy rainfall...leading to some isolated flash flooding. With a
strong low level jet and unseasonably moist air mass in
place...there is a potential for more heavy rain. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued to address this potential. These complexes
have missed most of southeast Missouri...so that area was not
included in the watch.
The cold front will exit the khop/kevv areas by 12z...bringing an
end to all activity. There may be considerable instability
cu/stratocu during the day...per gfs and nam model soundings.
Temps will generally remain steady in the 50s with gusty
northwest winds.
Friday night through Saturday night will be mainly clear and cool
with some potential for frost in the early morning hours. Surface
high pressure will pass over or just north of the forecast area on
Saturday.
.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
The next weather system takes shape to our south Sunday, and for at
least the second consecutive day, moves in with pcpn Sunday night
and extends that at least through part of early next week.
This happens as a broad long wave trof carves out across the eastern
half of the country, with us in the cool/damp flow underneath. We`ll
go ahead and accept the allblended pops for the Sunday night through
Tuesday time period, focusing on the best chance time period Sunday
night as the system lifts out. Elevated instability there continues
to support the isolated mention of thunder we inherited, so we kept
it.
Temps remain in balance with consistently forecast highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. These
represent values some 10 degrees or more below climo norms for this
time of year...though some hint at warming a little toward the end
of the period is noted.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 710 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
This is a tough forecast for timing of convective events. Active
convection this evening...moving in from the sw, will take VFR or
MVFR conditions to temporary IFR conditions. Isolated severe weather
is possible. Cold frontal passage tonight will mark the most
restrictive flight conditions. Somewhat variable winds early this
evening are expected to become more southerly and strengthen ahead
of the system, shifting to the west late tonight. Clouds should
eventually disperse tomorrow morning and return to VFR flight levels
in the wake of the system`s departure.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ001>022.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ076-087-111-112.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ081-082-085>088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...DH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
300 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
Main concern in the short term is severe weather potential...with
the greatest risk expected late Thursday through Thursday night.
In the near term...a strong surface warm front was located just
south of a line from kmdh to kowb at 19z. The models have been too
quick to lift the front northward. Relied on the HRRR guidance for
this front...meaning the front will be nearly stationary from the
kevv/kowb area to kmdh well into the evening. The front may not
clear the Interstate 64 corridor until midnight or later. Widespread
elevated convection north of the front should remain generally along
and north of I 64.
Late this evening into the overnight hours...showers and storms will
increase in coverage across the entire region as the southwest flow
aloft becomes more active. The models indicate a series of weak
impulses originating in the subtropical Pacific will begin to affect
our region. In the lower levels...the southerly low level jet will
increase to between 40 and 50 knots by 12z. Some locally heavy rain
is possible...mainly across southern IL and southeast MO. The severe
weather potential will be rather limited by lack of surface based
instability. Enough elevated instability will be present for some
hailers...especially given wet bulb zero heights around 10k feet.
Damaging wind potential will be limited by weak low level lapse
rates.
On Thursday...there may be a lull in the activity during the
morning. Activity should increase during the afternoon as daytime
heating destabilizes the atmosphere. The 12z gfs/09z sref indicate
surface based capes will be near 2000 j/kg later in the afternoon
across southeast MO and southwest IL. The shear/instability
parameters are strongly favorable for supercells across Missouri
during the afternoon. Any activity that forms east of the
Mississippi River will be in a less favorable environment for
supercell structures.
By late Thursday night...the activity is likely to congeal into a
QLCS by the time it reaches sw Indiana and the Pennyrile region of
west Kentucky. By midnight...the environment will be characterized
by high shear and low cape. This should result in more of a wind
threat than hail or tornadoes. During the transition period in the
evening hours...any combination of organized storm structures could
occur...producing damaging wind/large hail/tornadoes. This
transition appears likely to occur across southern IL and far west
Kentucky.
Storm total qpf for the entire short term period is currently
forecast from around 1.5 to almost 3 inches...with the highest
amounts in southern IL and southeast MO. These amounts are not
expected to cause significant flooding problems over a widespread
area. Localized higher amounts /isolated flooding remains possible.
The cold front will move east across the kevv/khop areas around 12z
Friday...ending all precipitation. Strong drying in the wake of the
front should result in mainly sunny skies by afternoon. Temps will
remain nearly steady in the upper 50s to lower 60s through the day.
Friday night will be markedly colder as surface high pressure
provides clear skies and decreasing winds. Some frost or even a
light freeze is possible early Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
After the mid week system makes passage, we cool off for the weekend
and cool temps stick around through the remainder of the long term
portion of the forecast.
Dry weather prevails in a zonal flow pattern through the weekend.
Another system takes shape as a long wave trof carves across the
southern Plains. A surface low develops and lifts across the lower
MS valley, bringing our next bout of rain/showers into/across the
PAH FA mainly Sunday night-Monday. This happens as a broad long wave
trof carves out across the eastern half of the country, with us in
the cool/damp flow underneath.
Net result will be a cool back into the upper 50s and lower 60s for
highs this weekend, continuing into/through next week. Lows likewise
cool back into the 40s with even some upper 30s not out of the
question. These represent values some 10 degrees or more below climo
norms for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
Flight terminals are warm sectored now...so cigs/vsbys have returned
to VFR. A piece of energy in the upper flow ejects tonight, and may
result in a round of late night showers/storms that restricts
cigs/vsbys to MVFR. Isolated thunderstorms are capable of IFR
restrictions, but not in prevailing forecast. Stronger action
expected with system passage tomorrow night. Winds become southerly
and increase in speed and gusts tomorrow, on its approach.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
725 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED...BUT VERY INTENSE CONVECTION...SLOWLY WORKING INTO NE
TX. HOWEVER...KTXK AND KTYR MAY NOT SEE THIS CONVECTION UNTIL 03-04Z...
ALTHOUGH CAPPING INVERSION HAS ALMOST DISAPPEARED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...INTENSE DOWNBURSTS...AND
VERY ACTIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LTG STRIKES MAY CONTINUE FOR SVRL
HOURS NEAR STORMS. SOUTH WIND OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY WILL
PRECEDE THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD LAYER. WINDS
BECMG NW AROUND 10 KTS JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF LOW VFR
TO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND FRONT. HOWEVER...DRY LINE ALSO MOVG
ACROSS AREA DURG MORNING HOURS FRI...WITH SKIES BECMG VFR SKC AND
NW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KTS AND GUSTY./VII/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THAT AS OF 2 PM...SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING NEAR 1500-2000J/KG WITH LI`S RANGING FROM -4 TO -6. OUR
SAVING GRACE THUS FAR HAS BEEN SBCIN VALUES RANGING NEAR
100-200J/KG. WHERE THE CAP IS BREAKING IS ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH
AS OF 2 PM WAS LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF ADM...TO JUST WEST OF DTO
AND BWD. MESOANALYSIS CLOSER TO OUR AREA SHOWS THAT OUR REGION OF
LESS CINH WAS ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND THAT IS WHERE WE ARE
STARTING TO GET STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION POP UP THIS AFTN.
WILL BASE THIS EVENTS FORECAST CLOSELY ON THE HRRR FOR THE NEXT
18 TO 24 HOURS AND A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT/LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NAM/WRF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. HRRR SHOWING DRYLINE CONVECTION GROWING AND
INCREASING IN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHER THAN WHAT WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE I-30
CORRIDOR IN THE REGION OF WEAKER CINH...FEEL LIKE THE I-35 DRYLINE
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES BETWEEN
23-01Z. THESE CELLS...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT...
WILL EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THAT ORDER. THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES OF
TORNADO WATCH #52 BY OR SHORTLY CLOSE TO 02Z THIS EVENING WHEN THE
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF S AR/NE
TX AND N LA. IT APPEARS WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z THIS
EVENING WITH CONVECTION REACHING A MLU TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND LINE
BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. BEHIND THE EASTWARD PROPAGATING LINE WILL
LIKELY BE RENEWED CONVECTION ALONG THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO OUR NW MOST ZONES BETWEEN 03-06Z. NOT
EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO BE SEVERE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS
OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE TRUE
FRONT ITSELF. FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE WHAT`S LEFT OF THE DRYLINE
TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT OUR EXTREME SE PARISHES BY
12Z FRI. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RUNNING FOR OUR SE ZONES IN THE
MORNING BUT ANYTHING THAT`S LEFT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NW GULF COAST
FOR SATURDAY AND BEGINS TO RETURN BACK NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY AS SFC
CYCLOGENESIS FORMS ON THE FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SE TX COAST AND
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARDS MLU SUN EVENING AND
NEAR MEMPHIS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND
EVENT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL RESULT IN OVERRUNNING
CONVECTION AND GIVEN FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 12Z RUNS
OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN LIFT
FROM THE COAST ON SUNDAY...THERE COULD BE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY AND ATTM...THAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES OR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LOWER TOLEDO BEND TO
MONROE LOUISIANA LINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE
EVENT GETS NEARER IN TIME. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 56 71 46 67 51 / 70 0 0 20 40
MLU 63 74 46 65 50 / 70 20 0 20 50
DEQ 49 67 38 66 47 / 70 0 0 10 20
TXK 52 68 44 66 49 / 70 0 0 10 30
ELD 56 71 43 66 49 / 70 0 0 10 40
TYR 51 70 46 65 50 / 70 0 0 20 30
GGG 53 70 46 66 50 / 70 0 0 20 30
LFK 57 72 48 67 54 / 50 10 10 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
638 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND STORMS WILL BECOME SCT TO NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS AND VIS WILL CREATE IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT DURING EARLY TO MID FRIDAY
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT EVERY TERMINAL BY MID DAY
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BECOME NW TO NORTH DURING FRIDAY MORNING
AROUND SUNRISE TO MID MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF JUST
EMERGING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE TO THE SOUTH...A
PACIFIC JET WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BAJA AND NORTHERN MX. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...A 30-40KT LLJ CONTINUES ACROSS EAST TX/WRN LA PER
AREA VWPS.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AND INTO THE NE GOMEX. TO THE WEST...A SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER ERN
KS...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT THROUGH ERN OK INTO NORTHERN TX.
LIFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AS REGION FALLS
UNDERNEATH THE DIFLUENT REGION BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF
PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ROUGHLY COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR THE 12HR PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON TOMORROW.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE INDICATIONS THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DEPICTED BY THE RUC AND HRRR MAY BE STARTING...WITH SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED ECHOES STARTING TO APPEAR ON REGIONAL RADARS. THIS DOES
LEND A LITTLE CREDENCE TO NAM/RUC FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED
EROSION OF THE CINH SEEN IN EARLIER RAOBS AROUND THIS TIME. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. IN ANY
EVENT...THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE KEPT SEVERE WORDING IN THE FCST
FOR TONIGHT...AND EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR ACADIANA. THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE POP FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY
TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE ONLY A
SHORT REPRIEVE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FCST TO BEGIN SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER...MORE SOUTHERN TRACKED...UPPER TROF. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
SE TX COAST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS LOUISIANA...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY PULL A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE APPEAR POSSIBLE
FOR A TWO DAY TOTAL...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
RISK SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE MEAN TROF WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS MILD BUT OTHERWISE BENIGN WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WED...THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A
MODERATING TREND BEGINNING THURSDAY.
MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL GULF WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY SEA FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO AND THEN STALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FOR THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW AFFECTS
THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 67 79 56 68 56 / 60 40 10 60 60
KBPT 68 78 57 68 58 / 60 30 10 60 50
KAEX 66 76 51 68 53 / 80 30 10 40 70
KLFT 68 81 57 69 58 / 60 60 20 60 70
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND SETTLES
OVER NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SITUATED (AS OF 19Z) FROM THE CENTRAL
VA PIEDMONT TO THE BORDER OF SE VA/NE NC. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S FROM THE S-CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT TO NE NC. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER. READINGS AWAY FROM THE COASTS ARE
GENERALLY 65-70...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COASTLINES.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE MORE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING ONCE STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING WANES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N). A RATHER EXTENSIVE MCS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A MOIST
FRONTAL BAND ALOFT...WHICH EXTENDS W-E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. 02/17Z HRRR SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD LINGER E OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER
COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT LARGELY REMAINS S OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
ONSHORE FLOW UNDERNEATH WAA ALOFT. THIS WILL ALSO LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S NE...TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S S/SW. HIGHS WILL BE LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NE...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL THE FRONT N AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER THE
MOST RESISTANCE AND WILL BE SLOWEST TO CLEAR THE EXTREME NRN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. HOWEVER...ALL
AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CHC POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED N THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
AREA (AWAY FROM THE COASTS)...WITH UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FOR CENTRAL
PORTIONS. THE EASTERN SHORE WILL BE TRICKIER...PARTIAL CLEARING
COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH INTERIOR PORTIONS INTO THE LOW/MID
70S...WHILE 65-70 WOULD BE MORE REALISTIC WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER. SE FLOW IS LIKELY TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO QB FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY SLIGHT CHC/LOW-END CHC
POPS ARE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE PRIMARY FORCING
PULLS WELL N OF THE AREA. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE
MIDWEST ON MONDAY...LIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY.
AS IT DOES SO IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
QUICKER IN BRINGING PCPN INTO OUR SW COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT AND THE GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT HIGH PCPN
CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT
SLOWING UP AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...WILL HAVE TO CARRY POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE. AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
EAST NEXT WEDNESDAY MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
SAT NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGH SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY IN THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES
WILL REMAIN OFF THE SE CST THIS AFTN INTO FRI...AS A WEAK FRNTL
BNDRY (WARM FRNT) DROPS INTO THE MID ATLC AND LINGERS OVR THE AREA.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BUT MORE CLOUDS LATER TNGT INTO THU
AFTN...DUE TO THE FRNTL BNDRY AND EASTERLY SFC WINDS. LWRING
CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TO IFR CIGS) AND A CHC OF SHOWERS ESPLY AT
RIC/SBY THU EVENG INTO FRI MORNG. COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FM
THE W LATE FRI...THEN MOVE ACRS THE REGION FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNG
BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA INTO THURS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 4 FT FRI. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON SAT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NW THEN N AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE W. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA THRESHOLDS ON
THE OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
454 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
LATEST 19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING NE INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND 850 MB FGEN ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW FROM ERN UPPER MI INTO NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW UPR MI ALONG
OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND ASSOC
INSTABILITY/MIXING HAS CAUSED SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN OVER 35
MPH IN THE PAST HR.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW
QUICKLY LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS Q-VECT DIV AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT FM THE SW WITH APPROACH OF SFC
RDG AXIS. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY LIFTING NE
AND/OR DIMINISHING OVER THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO
RANGE FM AROUND 10F OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FM THE NW WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MIXING TO NEAR 875 MB OFF THE NAM
SNDGS WOULD YIELD HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AND EAST TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F SW AND SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES 12Z THU WITH RIDGING OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HEADS INTO THE PLAINS ON THU AND
FORMS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW THU NIGHT OVER IOWA. NAM TAKES THIS LOW
INTO WISCONSIN 00Z SAT AND TO GEORGIAN BAY 12Z SAT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE STARTING ON
THU ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND THIS OVERSPREADS THE CWA BY THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES OUT FIR
NIGHT. NAM SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I290K-I305K AND MOISTURE ON
THU INTO FRI.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE MIXED PCPN TYPE ISSUES TO DEAL WITH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE WILL BE A FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE NORTH HALF WILL SEE
SNOW AND THIS COULD RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW AND THE SOUTH
HALF COULD SEE UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AND 0.20 INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. FOR THIS REASON...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM
WATCH FROM 00Z FRI TO 06Z SAT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS SUPPORTS A MIX
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA AND USED THE GFS MODEL TO FIGURE
THIS. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DELAYED POPS A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH INITIAL DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO BE OVERCOME.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE EARLY SPRING SNOWSTORM WILL BE WINDING DOWN
STARTING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE 500 MB TROUGH
EAST OF THE AREA 12Z SAT. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES 12Z
SAT THAT HEADS INTO THE PLAINS 12Z SUN AND INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
12Z MON. THIS TROUGH HEADS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. WILL
HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY MOSTLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
WHERE CONDITIONS AREN`T VFR...THEY WILL BECOME VFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRES WELL NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO MOVE NE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
AND DRY AIR MASS DOMINATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
THE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT NE OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES OR GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN DIMINISH BLO GALES LATER
TONIGHT AS LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES
BUILDIN OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WED
INTO THU. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR OK THURSDAY MORNING WILL PUSH
NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF LAKE HURON AND INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NE-N GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
LATEST 19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING NE INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND 850 MB FGEN ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW FROM ERN UPPER MI INTO NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW UPR MI ALONG
OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND ASSOC
INSTABILITY/MIXING HAS CAUSED SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN OVER 35
MPH IN THE PAST HR.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW
QUICKLY LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS Q-VECT DIV AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT FM THE SW WITH APPROACH OF SFC
RDG AXIS. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY LIFTING NE
AND/OR DIMINISHING OVER THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO
RANGE FM AROUND 10F OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FM THE NW WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MIXING TO NEAR 875 MB OFF THE NAM
SNDGS WOULD YIELD HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AND EAST TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F SW AND SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING CHANCE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE ALONG WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD. DURING THIS TIME...A WEAKENED
SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE ROCKIES MAKING WAY FOR LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH
STRONGER SURFACE LOW FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. OVERALL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET OTHER THAN A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA BY 06Z FRIDAY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING MSLP ALONG
WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EC/GFS/GEM. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT
INITIALLY LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE U.P. WHICH
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA PUSHING INTO THE CWA. THIS CAN EASILY BE
SEEN BY PLOTTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RH ALONG WITH PRESSURE ON THE
300K ISOSURFACE. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS SHOWN BY THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE 300K ISOSURFACE TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL AHEAD OF
THE LOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...HOWEVER...IN AN AREA STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY
MENOMINEE TO ESCANABA OVER TO NEWBERRY WILL SEE THE SNOW MIX WITH OR
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARMER AIR PUSHES IN JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER PENINSULA BY 12Z FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO BE
STAGGERED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO BE NEAR
SOUTHERN WI AROUND THIS TIME.
THE STRONGEST SYSTEM FORCING WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. ALONG WITH STRONGER FGEN FORCING AT 700MB AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY ALLOWING HEAVY WET SNOW TO DEVELOP...WHILE THE EASTERN U.P.
WILL STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING DUE TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...THANKS TO CONTINUED WAA...HELPING TO KEEP A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THOSE AREAS. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
STEEP THROUGH THE DGZ WITH EPV VALUES AROUND 0 OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW...POSSIBLY LEADING TO THUNDER...BUT DEFINITELY HELPING WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. AGAIN THESE ARE FINER DETAILS WHICH WILL HAVE
TO BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BETWEEN 18Z
FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
LOW BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY STACKED ALLOWING THE LOW TO OCCLUDE. AT
THE SAME TIME WARM AIR ASCENDS AND WRAPS AROUND THE LOW ALLOWING FOR
A TROWAL TYPE SETUP OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE U.P. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS AS IF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WOULD BE UNDER
THE TROWAL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 850MB LOW...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
SNOWFALL RATES...WHILE THE EASTERN U.P. MAY END UP SEEING A BIT OF A
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT TRIES
TO SLIP INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SO THE FINAL LOCATIONS OF
THESE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE MOST MODELS HAVE A
SIMILAR SNOW TRACK...THEY EACH VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE DETAILS WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS EVENT HIGHLIGHTING THE HEAVY
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P. WHILE ALSO
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO SATURDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. INITIALLY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE U.P. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...HOWEVER...AS THE
LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND BRINGING AND END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE LOW AS MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED...A CONSENSUS
APPROACH IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS AT THIS TIME AND
JUST BE AWARE THAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
WHERE CONDITIONS AREN`T VFR...THEY WILL BECOME VFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRES WELL NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO MOVE NE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
AND DRY AIR MASS DOMINATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
THE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT NE OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES OR GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN DIMINISH BLO GALES LATER
TONIGHT AS LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES
BUILDIN OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WED
INTO THU. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR OK THURSDAY MORNING WILL PUSH
NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF LAKE HURON AND INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NE-N GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244-245-
250-264>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
702 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT BENIGN AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. THIS HIGH WILL
QUICKLY BE PUSHED NORTHEAST AS A DEVELOPING CYCLONE USHERS WARM AND
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY. CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM.
FOR TONIGHT...POPS WERE CUT DOWN DUE TO THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN
SOMEWHAT...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THE EC/GEM REMAIN DRY THROUGH 00Z AND THE GFS/NAM HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THEIR ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE EC AND GEM REALLY SOLUTIONS MAKE ME
QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL WILL BE SEEN
TONIGHT...BUT THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT. SO...DIALED THE POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
CATEGORIES THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM WOULD
START OUT AS RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED UP A
HAIR ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SO FREEZING RAIN IS LESS OF A
CONCERN/BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY/ IN THIS AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL IN THE FA OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
ISSUES ABOUND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AS A STORM SYSTEM
IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING HEADS OUR WAY. THE
00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
POSITION...BUT ITS THE ONSET AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THAT PLAYS
HAVOC WITH THE FORECAST THURSDAY AS WELL AS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST THREE RUNS WHILE THE EC HAS DROPPED SOUTHWEST WITH
THE UPPER LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE 02.00Z RUN
RESEMBLING THE FORECAST FROM 01.00Z. THE GFS HAS A WELL DEFINED
DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WEST
CENTRAL MN COUNTIES AS DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING COUPLED JET ALOFT. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED
WITH STRONG UPGLIDE AND ADIABATIC OMEGA WITH MIXING RATIOS IN THE
3 TO 4 G/KG RANGE. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SPREADS IN FROM SD WITH
NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE. THIS WHOLE PACKAGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HENCE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
ON A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF OUR CWA. AT THIS
POINT A WIDE SWATH OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS PROJECTED FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MN...THE TWIN CITIES AND
NORTHERN AREAS OF WI. THIS MAY BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS POINTING AT 12 TO 16 INCHES.
THE LOWEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY ARE 4 TO 6
INCHES FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. THIS IS AN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE CERTAINLY DIFFERENCES IN THE WRF SOLUTIONS THAT
WOULD ARGUE FOR MORE SNOW EARLY ON THURSDAY WHILE SEVERAL
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS POINT TO LITTLE PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR
MUCH FOR THURSDAY. THIS IS AN ISSUE LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO DEAL
WITH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A THREAT FOR THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS
SE MN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH. THE FIRST WAS TO ADD
THE REST OF OUR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. THE SECOND WAS TO
EXTEND THE WATCH FOR EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE LASTING A LITTLE LONGER.
LITTLE TIME TO PONDER THE LONGER TERM. THERE WILL BE SOME
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING IN DEALING WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION TONIGHT. TODAY WILL BE VFR ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN BEING THE WIND DIRECTION AND TIMING AS THEY
TURN EASTERLY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING STORM. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF SUB 5K FT STRATUS DECK AND PRECIPITATION IS LOW DUE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD. TENDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE RAP AS IT SPLIT
THE EC AND GFS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS MEANT DELAYING THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPS A
HEALTHY SUPPLY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE OVERCOME
EVENTUALLY OF COURSE...BUT AT THIS TIME I AM THINKING A LITTLE
SLOWER.
KMSP...WENT WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST THIS PERIOD GIVEN
REASONS STATED ABOVE. AGAIN FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. AS MORE HI-RES MODELS REACH THIS
TIME FRAME...FORECAST SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE. FZRA/SN POSSIBLE. WINDS NE AT
15G20KT.
THU NIGHT. IFR AND SN EXPECTED WITH LIFR +SN LIKELY. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW BEGINNING AFTER 00Z. WINDS NE TO NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...IFR/SN WITH LIFR/+SN POSSIBLE THROUGH 15/18Z. DIMINISHING TO
MVFR BY 21Z. WINDS NNW 20G30KT. SAT...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
WINDS S AT 10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-049>053-058>063-066>070-076>078-084-
085-093.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-073>075-082-
083-091-092.
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
959 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW BAND HAS LARGELY PASSED EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL COUNTIES
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.
THE ADVISORY END TIME HAS BEEN MOVED UP FROM 4 AM TO MIDNIGHT FOR
THOSE COUNTIES ACROSS OUR EAST THAT ARE STILL UNDER THE ADVISORY.
THE SNOW BAND IS MOVING QUICK ENOUGH THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END ACROSS OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE SNOW HAS COME TO AN END. WE WILL NOT BE
GETTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITHIN OUR ADVISORY AREA...BUT
SINCE IT IS NOW SNOWING AND COMING DOWN PRETTY GOOD AT
TIMES...WILL JUST LET THE ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS. MOST
PLACES WITHIN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE 1 INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS MAY PICK UP 2 INCHES IF THEY CAN GET
UNDER A MORE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW BAND. THE SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO
ACCUMULATE DUE TO NEAR SFC AIR TEMPERATURES OF 32 TO 34F AND
WARMER SOIL TEMPERATURES. IT IS JUST A TOUCH TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING
MORE IMPACTFUL. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS EVENING TO AROUND
FREEZING AND SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON AREA BRIDGES AND ROADWAYS
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
CANCELED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END
LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
...A COMPLEX SITUATION IS UNFOLDING WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED DECENT
PRECIP BUT HOW IT FALLS REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN EVEN AS IT`S ON
THE DOORSTEP...
ALOFT: A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF WAS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO NEB/KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND HEADS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW
TOMORROW...HERE ON THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SURFACE: THIS IS THE FIRST SPRING STORM OF THE SEASON...THOUGH
ITS IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED FOR OUR FCST AREA. LOW PRES WAS
OVER ERN KS...SITUATED ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONT. THE FCST AREA WAS
IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS LOW WILL CROSS INTO MO AND BE OVER LAKE
MI BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...MODESTLY DEEPENING OVER THE JOURNEY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SPILL S DOWN THE PLAINS AND INCREASE ITS
INFLUENCE HERE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
NOW: LIFT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING VIA BLOSSOMING RETURNS ON
RADAR. THE TROF IS SHIFTING E AND THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER KANSAS
CITY. CLOUD TOPS ARE MODESTLY COOLING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
EDGES E.
THE HI-RES RAP HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON THE REFLECTIVITY IN THIS
BAND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
4PM- 5PM.
THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION WITH P-TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE WILL
IS SUB-FRZG W OF THE TROF AXIS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER /BL/
IS ABOVE FRZG...THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR AROUND TO ADVECT
IN ...AND PCPN IS NOT FALLING HEAVY ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO OVERCOME
THE WARM BL. THE PCPN INTENSITY WILL DRIVE THE P-TYPE AND AMTS.
THIS MAKES THE FCST DIFFICULT AND PUTS INTO JEOPARDY THE
OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN-SNOW AND
SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMTS.
IF PCPN DOES NOT COME DOWN HEAVILY ENOUGH...WHEN/IF THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS...IT WILL MELT ON CONTACT.
FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOW THRU MIDNIGHT.
HERE IS OUR CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON:
INTERMITTENT DRZL WITH EMBEDDED SHWRS/SLEET OVER S-CNTRL NEB WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A FAIRLY STEADY R AND EVENTUALLY TO S AS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN BAND HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL HOLD STEADY.
TONIGHT: EXPECT BY 7 PM THAT WHATEVER RAIN IS FALLING SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE LOSE SOLAR INPUT ON SFC TEMPS. SNOW WILL END
FROM W- E. IT IS WITH RELUCTANCE THAT I AM KEEPING THE
ADVISORY...MAINLY DUE TO THE VERY LOW POTENTIAL THAT THIS PCPN
COULD OVER-PRODUCE. BE ADVISED THAT SNOWFALL AMTS COULD END UP
BELOW AN INCH AND SOME AREAS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT ACCUMULATE AT
ALL. THE SNOW E OF HWY 81 WILL BE DONE BY 3AM. DECREASING CLOUDS
WILL FOLLOW.
FCST SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO NO MORE THAN 1 INCH AND
I HOPE THIS IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF HAND GIVEN THAT THE
STRONGEST PRES RISES WILL OCCUR S OF I-70. GUSTS COULD REACH 40
MPH AT TIMES...E OF HWY 281 OVER S-CNTRL NEB.
POSSIBLE FCST SHORT-COMINGS FOR NUMEROUS. THE SNOW HAS BEEN
MODERATE AT TIMES TODAY OVER NW KS /CBK/ AND EVEN BRIEFLY AT MCK.
IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE TRANSIENT HEAVIER SNOW BANDS COULD
SWING THRU N- CNTRL KS.
TOMORROW: SUNNY AND TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. USED BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND OF MODEL 2M TEMPS AND THE PREVIOUS GID FCST. THIS
RAISED HIGHS 3-4.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING TO NEARLY 700 MB. SO DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWERED BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES...AND
THERE MAY BE MORE DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL INTO THE UPR TEENS.
WINDS WILL BE BRZY IN THE MORNING...GUSTING 30-35 MPH E OF HWY
281. BUT WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
MAIN CONCERNS WILL FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SAT NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLUCTUATE
DURING THE PERIOD IN QUESTION.
STARTING OFF FRIDAY EVENING LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR REGION SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR
REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUT THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN ROCKIES AT THAT TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH LEE TROUGHING
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE
WINDS SWITCHING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. END UP WITH A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THUS IT WILL BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY
SIDE ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY
BROAD...SLOW MOVING TROUGH WITH THE 500 MB AXIS OVER THE CENTER OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z MON. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE TROUGH...OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES ROTATE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES POINT
TO ALL LIQUID. ALSO...INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH FORECAST MU-CAPES BELOW 100 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS BETTER JUST TO
THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE TRANSITION DAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE EAST. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE WARMER AIR TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION...BUT WED AND THURSDAY SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A NICE WARMUP WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE 70S WHICH
WOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 9 PM AND THEN QUICKLY COME TO AN
END. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK INTO VFR AS
THE SNOW ENDS. THE WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR NEZ041-
048-049-063.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
753 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SSW
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SERN STATES NWD
INTO NRN MICHIGAN. A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...A 50 TO 80 KT JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM SRN AZ INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO NWRN OK. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTH SOUTHWEST FROM THE
LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED INVOF OF A MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
FROM WESTERN HOLT COUNTY INTO FRONTIER COUNTY. FURTHER
WEST...CLEARING WAS PRESENT...AND HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 34 AT
ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW...TO 43 AT THEDFORD AND OGALLALA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
AS INDICATED BY RADAR TIMING TOOLS AND THE RAP MODEL...SNOW HAS
EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SOUTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION DISRUPTED THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AS A RESULT THE SNOW BAND HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY
AS FIRST THOUGHT. THIS WAS A POSSIBILITY AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY.
WILL CONTINUE THE GOING HEADLINES...AS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA FROM ONEILL TO BROKEN BOW AND
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS ACTUALLY BEGUN TO
BACK WEST SOME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS AREA...AND PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN INCREASING. EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
FROM HOLT COUNTY...SOUTH THROUGH WHEELER AND EASTERN CUSTER
COUNTIES. LATE TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
SKIES CLEARING.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -2C AT ONEILL TO 7C AT
IMPERIAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WELL ON SUNDAY.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND SERN WYOMING. SRLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...LEADING TO A FAIRLY
MILD NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION
TO WIND...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING UPPR LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. SRLY WINDS WILL CARRY OVER
INTO SATURDAY WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST INVOF OF A
STALLED OUT BOUNDARY. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10C
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ARE ON
TRACK. ONLY CONCERN MAY BE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WHICH WILL INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL LIFT INTO WRN KS/SATURDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES IN THE SWRN CWA...TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
ATTM...THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE NWRN CWA
AND ARE COLLOCATED WITH NEGATIVE LI`S SATURDAY EVE...HOWEVER BL
MOISTURE IS VERY MEAGER ON SATURDAY...ESP IN THE NW...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM. ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WERE GENERALLY
LEFT UNCHANGED FROM THE PVS FCST AS THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL
AND NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I DID ADJUST THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
ACROSS THE SWRN CWA BASED ON WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE LI`S AND
STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
EAST INTO THE OZARKS. ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG NRN
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
WITH THE THREAT LINGERING IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING. IN LIGHT OF
THE MID LEVEL FORCING AND COLD FROPA MONDAY...WILL LEAVE THIS
MENTION IN THE ONGOING FCST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING EAST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
TUESDAY...READINGS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE LATEST MID RANGE MODEL SOLNS ARE
INDICATING A COLD FROPA WHICH WILL DROP OUR HIGHS BACK INTO THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN NEB ARE MASKED BY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THEY ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM KLBF AS
INDICATED BY MOST MODELS. THE RAP MODEL HOWEVER IS WRAPPING THE
MVFR CIGS DIRECTLY SOUTH INTO KLBF THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
NORTHWEST WINDS UNDERWAY...IT WOULD APPEAR KLBF WILL REMAIN VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN. THE MVFR CIGS UP NORTH ARE EXPECTED
TO MIX OUT TO VFR FRIDAY MORNING 15Z-18Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
744 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE SNOW HAS COME TO AN END. WE WILL NOT BE
GETTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITHIN OUR ADVISORY AREA...BUT
SINCE IT IS NOW SNOWING AND COMING DOWN PRETTY GOOD AT
TIMES...WILL JUST LET THE ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS. MOST
PLACES WITHIN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE 1 INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS MAY PICK UP 2 INCHES IF THEY CAN GET
UNDER A MORE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW BAND. THE SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO
ACCUMULATE DUE TO NEAR SFC AIR TEMPERATURES OF 32 TO 34F AND
WARMER SOIL TEMPERATURES. IT IS JUST A TOUCH TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING
MORE IMPACTFUL. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS EVENING TO AROUND
FREEZING AND SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON AREA BRIDGES AND ROADWAYS
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
CANCELED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END
LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
...A COMPLEX SITUATION IS UNFOLDING WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED DECENT
PRECIP BUT HOW IT FALLS REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN EVEN AS IT`S ON
THE DOORSTEP...
ALOFT: A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF WAS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO NEB/KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND HEADS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW
TOMORROW...HERE ON THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SURFACE: THIS IS THE FIRST SPRING STORM OF THE SEASON...THOUGH
ITS IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED FOR OUR FCST AREA. LOW PRES WAS
OVER ERN KS...SITUATED ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONT. THE FCST AREA WAS
IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS LOW WILL CROSS INTO MO AND BE OVER LAKE
MI BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...MODESTLY DEEPENING OVER THE JOURNEY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SPILL S DOWN THE PLAINS AND INCREASE ITS
INFLUENCE HERE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
NOW: LIFT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING VIA BLOSSOMING RETURNS ON
RADAR. THE TROF IS SHIFTING E AND THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER KANSAS
CITY. CLOUD TOPS ARE MODESTLY COOLING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
EDGES E.
THE HI-RES RAP HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON THE REFLECTIVITY IN THIS
BAND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
4PM- 5PM.
THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION WITH P-TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE WILL
IS SUB-FRZG W OF THE TROF AXIS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER /BL/
IS ABOVE FRZG...THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR AROUND TO ADVECT
IN ...AND PCPN IS NOT FALLING HEAVY ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO OVERCOME
THE WARM BL. THE PCPN INTENSITY WILL DRIVE THE P-TYPE AND AMTS.
THIS MAKES THE FCST DIFFICULT AND PUTS INTO JEOPARDY THE
OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN-SNOW AND
SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMTS.
IF PCPN DOES NOT COME DOWN HEAVILY ENOUGH...WHEN/IF THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS...IT WILL MELT ON CONTACT.
FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOW THRU MIDNIGHT.
HERE IS OUR CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON:
INTERMITTENT DRZL WITH EMBEDDED SHWRS/SLEET OVER S-CNTRL NEB WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A FAIRLY STEADY R AND EVENTUALLY TO S AS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN BAND HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL HOLD STEADY.
TONIGHT: EXPECT BY 7 PM THAT WHATEVER RAIN IS FALLING SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE LOSE SOLAR INPUT ON SFC TEMPS. SNOW WILL END
FROM W- E. IT IS WITH RELUCTANCE THAT I AM KEEPING THE
ADVISORY...MAINLY DUE TO THE VERY LOW POTENTIAL THAT THIS PCPN
COULD OVER-PRODUCE. BE ADVISED THAT SNOWFALL AMTS COULD END UP
BELOW AN INCH AND SOME AREAS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT ACCUMULATE AT
ALL. THE SNOW E OF HWY 81 WILL BE DONE BY 3AM. DECREASING CLOUDS
WILL FOLLOW.
FCST SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO NO MORE THAN 1 INCH AND
I HOPE THIS IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF HAND GIVEN THAT THE
STRONGEST PRES RISES WILL OCCUR S OF I-70. GUSTS COULD REACH 40
MPH AT TIMES...E OF HWY 281 OVER S-CNTRL NEB.
POSSIBLE FCST SHORT-COMINGS FOR NUMEROUS. THE SNOW HAS BEEN
MODERATE AT TIMES TODAY OVER NW KS /CBK/ AND EVEN BRIEFLY AT MCK.
IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE TRANSIENT HEAVIER SNOW BANDS COULD
SWING THRU N- CNTRL KS.
TOMORROW: SUNNY AND TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. USED BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND OF MODEL 2M TEMPS AND THE PREVIOUS GID FCST. THIS
RAISED HIGHS 3-4.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING TO NEARLY 700 MB. SO DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWERED BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES...AND
THERE MAY BE MORE DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL INTO THE UPR TEENS.
WINDS WILL BE BRZY IN THE MORNING...GUSTING 30-35 MPH E OF HWY
281. BUT WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
MAIN CONCERNS WILL FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SAT NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLUCTUATE
DURING THE PERIOD IN QUESTION.
STARTING OFF FRIDAY EVENING LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR REGION SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR
REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUT THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN ROCKIES AT THAT TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH LEE TROUGHING
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE
WINDS SWITCHING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. END UP WITH A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THUS IT WILL BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY
SIDE ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY
BROAD...SLOW MOVING TROUGH WITH THE 500 MB AXIS OVER THE CENTER OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z MON. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE TROUGH...OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES ROTATE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES POINT
TO ALL LIQUID. ALSO...INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH FORECAST MU-CAPES BELOW 100 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS BETTER JUST TO
THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE TRANSITION DAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE EAST. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE WARMER AIR TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION...BUT WED AND THURSDAY SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A NICE WARMUP WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE 70S WHICH
WOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 9 PM AND THEN QUICKLY COME TO AN
END. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK INTO VFR AS
THE SNOW ENDS. THE WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-061>063-073>075-083-084.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
623 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SSW
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SERN STATES NWD
INTO NRN MICHIGAN. A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...A 50 TO 80 KT JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM SRN AZ INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO NWRN OK. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTH SOUTHWEST FROM THE
LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED INVOF OF A MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
FROM WESTERN HOLT COUNTY INTO FRONTIER COUNTY. FURTHER
WEST...CLEARING WAS PRESENT...AND HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 34 AT
ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW...TO 43 AT THEDFORD AND OGALLALA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SOUTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION DISRUPTED THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AS A RESULT THE SNOW BAND HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY
AS FIRST THOUGHT. THIS WAS A POSSIBILITY AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY.
WILL CONTINUE THE GOING HEADLINES...AS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA FROM ONEILL TO BROKEN BOW AND
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS ACTUALLY BEGUN TO
BACK WEST SOME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS AREA...AND PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN INCREASING. EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
FROM HOLT COUNTY...SOUTH THROUGH WHEELER AND EASTERN CUSTER
COUNTIES. LATE TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
SKIES CLEARING.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -2C AT ONEILL TO 7C AT
IMPERIAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WELL ON SUNDAY.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND SERN WYOMING. SRLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...LEADING TO A FAIRLY
MILD NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION
TO WIND...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING UPPR LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. SRLY WINDS WILL CARRY OVER
INTO SATURDAY WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST INVOF OF A
STALLED OUT BOUNDARY. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10C
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ARE ON
TRACK. ONLY CONCERN MAY BE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WHICH WILL INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL LIFT INTO WRN KS/SATURDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES IN THE SWRN CWA...TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
ATTM...THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE NWRN CWA
AND ARE COLLOCATED WITH NEGATIVE LI`S SATURDAY EVE...HOWEVER BL
MOISTURE IS VERY MEAGER ON SATURDAY...ESP IN THE NW...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM. ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WERE GENERALLY
LEFT UNCHANGED FROM THE PVS FCST AS THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL
AND NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I DID ADJUST THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
ACROSS THE SWRN CWA BASED ON WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE LI`S AND
STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
EAST INTO THE OZARKS. ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG NRN
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
WITH THE THREAT LINGERING IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING. IN LIGHT OF
THE MID LEVEL FORCING AND COLD FROPA MONDAY...WILL LEAVE THIS
MENTION IN THE ONGOING FCST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING EAST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
TUESDAY...READINGS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE LATEST MID RANGE MODEL SOLNS ARE
INDICATING A COLD FROPA WHICH WILL DROP OUR HIGHS BACK INTO THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN NEB ARE MASKED BY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THEY ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM KLBF AS
INDICATED BY MOST MODELS. THE RAP MODEL HOWEVER IS WRAPPING THE
MVFR CIGS DIRECTLY SOUTH INTO KLBF THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
NORTHWEST WINDS UNDERWAY...IT WOULD APPEAR KLBF WILL REMAIN VFR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN. THE MVFR CIGS UP NORTH ARE EXPECTED
TO MIX OUT TO VFR FRIDAY MORNING 15Z-18Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ007-010-
027>029-038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
216 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
BOTH TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID WEST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH OVER THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12 NOON UPDATE... A COUPLE OF MORE MINOR CHGS WERE MADE
ATTM...MAINLY TO SPEED UP THE EXIT OF THE THICKER CLDS BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS...AND ALSO TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SPRINKLES
OVER NE PA.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS JUNCTURE.
930 AM UPDATE... ONCE AGN...THE FCST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...SO
JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS ARE REQUIRED ATTM.
A BAND OF -RA/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE SRN HALF OF PA
LATE THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH OVERRUNNING DYNAMICS JUST N OF A SFC
BNDRY ACRS DELMARVA...AND ALSO A RGN OF UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH OF THIS PCPN WILL STAY S OF OUR FA
THROUGH EARLY AFTN...SO WE`LL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A MENTION OF
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR FAR SRN ZNS.
AS THE AFTN WEARS ON...WE THINK THE PRESENT CLOUD COVER WILL THIN
OUT...SPCLY OVER CNY...SO OUR PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST IN THIS
TIME FRAME STILL LOOKS GOOD.
12Z SNDGS...ALG WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WEAK LOW-LVL CAA
TDY...BASICALLY SUPPORT OUR HIGH TEMP FCST...RANGING FROM THE 40S
ACRS UPSTATE NY...TO THE MID AND UPR 50S FOR MOST OF NE PA. WE
BLENDED THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC-13 TEMP DATA INTO THE GRIDS...JUST
TO BETTER DEFINE THE N TO S THERMAL GRADIENT THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN THE VCNTY KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MINS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS
OCCURS THE WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SRN PA/NRN MD WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HOLDING THE LIGHT RAIN OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CHC POPS OVER NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NRN CWA AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, BOUNDARY CONTINUES MAKING SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD
ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE GFS IS
MUCH HEAVIER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF BUT APPEARS TO BE HINDERED WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND NOT FOLLOWED. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH CHC POPS OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. ON FRIDAY, H85 WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA
RESULTING IN GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA
AND DRAG AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD WILL START OFF ON A COOL BUT DRY NOTE AS THE EARLY WEEKEND
STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS IN CENTRAL NY...WITH LOW 50S
LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LWR WYOMING VLY. BEYOND
THIS...FCST MODELS CONTINUE THEIR SUGGESTION THAT A FAIRLY
UNSETTLED PERIOD WILL BE UPON US AS A DEEP LOW MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN CONSOLIDATING SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. FORTUNATELY
THROUGH...THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
THIS A RAIN EVENT AS MAIN 850-HPA LOW TRAVELS WEST OF OUR AREA.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...EXPECT RAIN TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. BEYOND THIS...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING 850-HPA
TEMPS TO AGAIN FALL BELOW ZERO. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DEVELOPING
WEAK LAKE EFFECT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HOWEVER TIME OF YEAR
SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY...WITH A
RA/SN MIX POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY FALL TO BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. BY
TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WHILE LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WITH DIFFUSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DOWN
ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THIS TREND SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTH
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LWR OHIO VLY AND SOUTHERN PA. FCST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
SOME WEAK SHWR ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO AVP AFTER 12Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
CURRENT FCST. ASIDE FROM MID CLOUDS UP NORTH AFTER 12Z...NO MAJOR
IMPACTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THU NGT...VFR ACROSS CNY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT AVP WITH
DEVELOPING SHWR ACTIVITY.
FRI/SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN/LWR CIGS.
SUN/SUN NGT...VFR.
MON...AFTERNOON RESTRICTIONS AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1153 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
BOTH TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID WEST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH OVER THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12 NOON UPDATE... A COUPLE OF MORE MINOR CHGS WERE MADE
ATTM...MAINLY TO SPEED UP THE EXIT OF THE THICKER CLDS BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS...AND ALSO TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SPRINKLES
OVER NE PA.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS JUNCTURE.
930 AM UPDATE... ONCE AGN...THE FCST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...SO
JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS ARE REQUIRED ATTM.
A BAND OF -RA/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE SRN HALF OF PA
LATE THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH OVERRUNNING DYNAMICS JUST N OF A SFC
BNDRY ACRS DELMARVA...AND ALSO A RGN OF UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH OF THIS PCPN WILL STAY S OF OUR FA
THROUGH EARLY AFTN...SO WE`LL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A MENTION OF
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR FAR SRN ZNS.
AS THE AFTN WEARS ON...WE THINK THE PRESENT CLOUD COVER WILL THIN
OUT...SPCLY OVER CNY...SO OUR PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST IN THIS
TIME FRAME STILL LOOKS GOOD.
12Z SNDGS...ALG WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WEAK LOW-LVL CAA
TDY...BASICALLY SUPPORT OUR HIGH TEMP FCST...RANGING FROM THE 40S
ACRS UPSTATE NY...TO THE MID AND UPR 50S FOR MOST OF NE PA. WE
BLENDED THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC-13 TEMP DATA INTO THE GRIDS...JUST
TO BETTER DEFINE THE N TO S THERMAL GRADIENT THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN THE VCNTY KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MINS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS
OCCURS THE WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SRN PA/NRN MD WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HOLDING THE LIGHT RAIN OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CHC POPS OVER NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NRN CWA AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, BOUNDARY CONTINUES MAKING SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD
ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE GFS IS
MUCH HEAVIER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF BUT APPEARS TO BE HINDERED WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND NOT FOLLOWED. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH CHC POPS OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. ON FRIDAY, H85 WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA
RESULTING IN GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA
AND DRAG AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM TUE UPDATE... ITS NOT TOO OFTEN WE GET TO SAY THIS
BUT...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME AS BOTH SOLUTIONS COMPLIMENT EACH OTHER ANOTHER WELL ON
LARGE SCALE WEATHER FEATURES AND PRECIP TIMING. THAT SAID...AREA
WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR STEADY PRECIP RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE AS
SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM SENDS OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NGT. FOR NOW...BEST POPS SET DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AS MAIN H85 LOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE TO NO LAKE RESPONSE ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO FINALLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SEND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION /I.E. H85 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -8C BY 12Z
SUN/ TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME WEAK LAKE RESPONSE ACROSS THE UPPER
SUSQUEHANNA AND WESTERN MOHAWK VLYS. LINGERING LAKE
CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO QUICKLY FALL APART ON SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT DEEP SOUTH SFC LOW SHIFTS OVER THE
AREA. AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS LIFTING
NORTHWARD...EXPECT WELL PRONOUNCED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW...PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES WITH
AHEAD OF MAIN H85 LOW. PRECIP TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA AS MAIN DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO HOVER BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...AND LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THE FROPA THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE CONFINED TO KSYR AND
KRME... THUS DECIDED TO KEEP A TEMPO FOR 2500 FT ATTM. WINDS BEHIND
THE FROPA WILL BE NORTHERLY.
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS JUST TO KAVP. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WED/THU...VFR.
FRI/SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN/LWR CIGS.
SUN...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
934 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
BOTH TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID WEST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH OVER THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE... ONCE AGN...THE FCST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...SO
JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS ARE REQUIRED ATTM.
A BAND OF -RA/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE SRN HALF OF PA
LATE THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH OVERRUNNING DYNAMICS JUST N OF A SFC
BNDRY ACRS DELMARVA...AND ALSO A RGN OF UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH OF THIS PCPN WILL STAY S OF OUR FA
THROUGH EARLY AFTN...SO WE`LL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A MENTION OF
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR FAR SRN ZNS.
AS THE AFTN WEARS ON...WE THINK THE PRESENT CLOUD COVER WILL THIN
OUT...SPCLY OVER CNY...SO OUR PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST IN THIS
TIME FRAME STILL LOOKS GOOD.
12Z SNDGS...ALG WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WEAK LOW-LVL CAA
TDY...BASICALLY SUPPORT OUR HIGH TEMP FCST...RANGING FROM THE 40S
ACRS UPSTATE NY...TO THE MID AND UPR 50S FOR MOST OF NE PA. WE
BLENDED THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC-13 TEMP DATA INTO THE GRIDS...JUST
TO BETTER DEFINE THE N TO S THERMAL GRADIENT THIS AFTN.
PREV DISC... AT 415 AM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS AND LOWER 40S ON THE HILLTOPS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED
SHOWERS IN THE OHIO VALLEY NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AND SHORT
WAVE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
POCONOS THIS MORNING. INCLUDED HIGHS CHC POPS FOR THIS REGION FROM
DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE MORNING. TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE AROUND
15 DEGREES ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY SO THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND BRING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK CAA WILL OCCUR UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE NRN CWA
AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN THE VCNTY KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MINS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS
OCCURS THE WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SRN PA/NRN MD WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HOLDING THE LIGHT RAIN OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CHC POPS OVER NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NRN CWA AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, BOUNDARY CONTINUES MAKING SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD
ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE GFS IS
MUCH HEAVIER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF BUT APPEARS TO BE HINDERED WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND NOT FOLLOWED. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH CHC POPS OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. ON FRIDAY, H85 WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA
RESULTING IN GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA
AND DRAG AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM TUE UPDATE... ITS NOT TOO OFTEN WE GET TO SAY THIS
BUT...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME AS BOTH SOLUTIONS COMPLIMENT EACH OTHER ANOTHER WELL ON
LARGE SCALE WEATHER FEATURES AND PRECIP TIMING. THAT SAID...AREA
WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR STEADY PRECIP RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE AS
SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM SENDS OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NGT. FOR NOW...BEST POPS SET DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AS MAIN H85 LOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE TO NO LAKE RESPONSE ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO FINALLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SEND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION /I.E. H85 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -8C BY 12Z
SUN/ TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME WEAK LAKE RESPONSE ACROSS THE UPPER
SUSQUEHANNA AND WESTERN MOHAWK VLYS. LINGERING LAKE
CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO QUICKLY FALL APART ON SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT DEEP SOUTH SFC LOW SHIFTS OVER THE
AREA. AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS LIFTING
NORTHWARD...EXPECT WELL PRONOUNCED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW...PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES WITH
AHEAD OF MAIN H85 LOW. PRECIP TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA AS MAIN DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO HOVER BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...AND LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THE FROPA THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE CONFINED TO KSYR AND
KRME... THUS DECIDED TO KEEP A TEMPO FOR 2500 FT ATTM. WINDS BEHIND
THE FROPA WILL BE NORTHERLY.
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS JUST TO KAVP. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WED/THU...VFR.
FRI/SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN/LWR CIGS.
SUN...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
301 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER
OVERNIGHT...THEN RETREAT BACK NORTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
WHILE SURFACE LIFTED INDICES ON MSAS OUTPUT HAVE FALLEN INTO
NEGATIVE VALUES OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THERE EXISTS SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...THE SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION OVER THAT AREA AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE QUITE LOW...
BELOW THE MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS AND MOSTLY IN THE 30S. THE RAP DID
QUITE WELL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS TODAY...AND WHILE THE LATEST GFS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...ITS SURFACE DEW POINT FORECAST SEEMS VERY HIGH AND THE
LATEST HRRR WRF KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION A FEW SETS OF COUNTIES NORTH
INTO VIRGINIA DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850MB
DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL...PARTICULARLY BY THE NAM.
HOWEVER...AS A 500MB JETLET AROUND 40KT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING...MOISTURE INCREASES
OVERALL...WITH MODEST 850MB THETA-E RIDGING...K INDICES INCREASING
TO AROUND 30...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES AT OR JUST ABOVE 1.25 INCHES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASES ON THE 305K SURFACE FOR A PERIOD
THURSDAY...MOVING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE
500MB JETLET AND WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST 850MB LIFT. THE
GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING WITH THE LIFT
TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MOST PARTICULARLY IN AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE NCEP AND SPC WRF GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOW THE GREATEST PROBABILITY. FOR THURSDAY...WILL KEEP
PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT
WEAKENING OF ECHOES AS THEY APPROACH...BUT ALSO THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCES THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVERALL SOUTH OF U.S. 64 EXCEPT DRY FROM ABOUT KMEB TO JUST
SOUTH OF KGSB WHERE BUFR SOUNDINGS...OVERALL MOISTURE...AND
AVAILABLE LIFT SEEM TOO LIMITED CURRENTLY FOR PRECIPITATION. ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF U.S. 64...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
MAY BE IN THE FORM OF A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH MORE STEEPENING OF LAYER LAPSE RATES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFTED INDICES FALL TO NEAR -3C...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STABLE...AND THE
WRF GUIDANCE IS CERTAINLY NOT AS ROBUST AS THE NAM. BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT AT THIS POINT THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE LEANS MORE TOWARD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY IF THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THURSDAY...AND IT COULD BE
A SITUATION WHERE THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WARMS NICELY LATE IN
THE DAY WHILE THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN ONLY GETS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S...WITH MORE CLOUDS THERE AND NEARER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AS WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE TO NEAR
30KT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
TO HAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
K INDICES FALL TO NEGATIVE VALUES UNDER AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY
CERTAINLY APPEAR TO BE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL MOVE OFF WELL TO NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HENCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
PRECIP/LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...THE
SPC KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH OUR
EXTREME WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER. THIS IS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FINALLY SHOWING IT
ERODE BY AROUND 00Z/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE LINE OF
STORMS MAKES IT TO OUR REGION...ANY MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WHERE THE ARRIVAL TIMING WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER.
OTHERWISE...ONLY LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT...AS
THE AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER
EAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND DEPENDING ON THE SPEED...THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THAT FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S
TO THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...MOSTLY LOW
TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
THEN OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERRUNNING PRECIP SHOULD COMMENCE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE OLD FRONT MOVES NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE. AS SUCH...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SOME LEVEL OF CAD SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. THE WEATHER SHOULD
STAY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IF THE CAD HOLDS IN PLACE AS
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS COULD BE CHALLENGING PARTICULARLY FROM KINT
AND KGSO TO KRWI...INCLUDING KRDU...WHERE WINDS COULD SHIFT BRIEFLY
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
MOST OTHER AREAS...MINIMALLY...THOUGH...TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ.
CURRENTLY...WITH ANY SHOWER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT TO 30 TO 35KT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...THEN LIKELY TO AT LEAST 40KT OR A LITTLE BETTER OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS INCREASES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
242 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER
OVERNIGHT...THEN RETREAT BACK NORTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
WHILE SURFACE LIFTED INDICES ON MSAS OUTPUT HAVE FALLEN INTO
NEGATIVE VALUES OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THERE EXISTS SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...THE SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION OVER THAT AREA AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE QUITE LOW...
BELOW THE MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS AND MOSTLY IN THE 30S. THE RAP DID
QUITE WELL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS TODAY...AND WHILE THE LATEST GFS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...ITS SURFACE DEW POINT FORECAST SEEMS VERY HIGH AND THE
LATEST HRRR WRF KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION A FEW SETS OF COUNTIES NORTH
INTO VIRGINIA DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850MB
DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL...PARTICULARLY BY THE NAM.
HOWEVER...AS A 500MB JETLET AROUND 40KT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING...MOISTURE INCREASES
OVERALL...WITH MODEST 850MB THETA-E RIDGING...K INDICES INCREASING
TO AROUND 30...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES AT OR JUST ABOVE 1.25 INCHES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASES ON THE 305K SURFACE FOR A PERIOD
THURSDAY...MOVING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE
500MB JETLET AND WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST 850MB LIFT. THE
GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING WITH THE LIFT
TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MOST PARTICULARLY IN AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE NCEP AND SPC WRF GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOW THE GREATEST PROBABILITY. FOR THURSDAY...WILL KEEP
PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT
WEAKENING OF ECHOES AS THEY APPROACH...BUT ALSO THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCES THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVERALL SOUTH OF U.S. 64 EXCEPT DRY FROM ABOUT KMEB TO JUST
SOUTH OF KGSB WHERE BUFR SOUNDINGS...OVERALL MOISTURE...AND
AVAILABLE LIFT SEEM TOO LIMITED CURRENTLY FOR PRECIPITATION. ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF U.S. 64...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
MAY BE IN THE FORM OF A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH MORE STEEPENING OF LAYER LAPSE RATES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFTED INDICES FALL TO NEAR -3C...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STABLE...AND THE
WRF GUIDANCE IS CERTAINLY NOT AS ROBUST AS THE NAM. BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT AT THIS POINT THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE LEANS MORE TOWARD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY IF THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THURSDAY...AND IT COULD BE
A SITUATION WHERE THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WARMS NICELY LATE IN
THE DAY WHILE THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN ONLY GETS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S...WITH MORE CLOUDS THERE AND NEARER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AS WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE TO NEAR
30KT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
TO HAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
K INDICES FALL TO NEGATIVE VALUES UNDER AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY
CERTAINLY APPEAR TO BE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
FRI AND FRI NIGHT: OVERALL MINIMAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES...THOUGH
NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. CONTINUED WARM FRI...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S
NW PIEDMONT WHERE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ESPECIALLY AFTER
NOON...RANGING TO PERSISTENCE LOWER 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
DESPITE AROUND 500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY FRI...AND SIGNIFICANT INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE SEA BREEZE OWING TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE FLOW...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MID
LEVEL CAP AND ASSOCIATED CINH BETWEEN 100-150 J/KG. AS SUCH...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY CUMULUS TO BREAK THE CAP UNTIL BETTER
DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...BUT STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ...ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
IN FACT...IT IS LIKELY THAT A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EVOLVE FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST
STATES...IN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE
AND PARENT S/W TROUGH/UPPER LOW; AND THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...OR PERHAPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN WITH BOTH TIME AND WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT...OWING TO BOTH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND THE WELL-
TO-OUR-NW PASSAGE OF THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. NONETHELESS...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
CONDITIONAL UPON THUNDER INDEED MATERIALIZING - MORE LIKELY WEST OF
THE TRIANGLE WHERE THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BETTER COINCIDE
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
SAT THROUGH SUN: THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SAT...BUT LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IN WNW POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL
OTHERWISE PREVAIL. STILL WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT
NIGHT. COOLER SUN - IN THE 60S - IN NE FLOW AROUND 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE WHOSE TIMING IS FASTER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS WHAT IT
APPEARED YESTERDAY.
NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL INDEED BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AND BUCKLE NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUN-
MON. THE ASSOCIATED CONFLUENCE ALOFT INDUCED BY THE BUCKLING OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF A DAMMING HIGH
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GOM. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER IN A STRENGTHENING REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP
THE SURFACE HIGH...AND CONSEQUENT RAIN AND CAD...FOR SUN NIGHT-MON.
AFTER PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE IN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MON NIGHT-EARLY
TUE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A L/W TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS COULD BE CHALLENGING PARTICULARLY FROM KINT
AND KGSO TO KRWI...INCLUDING KRDU...WHERE WINDS COULD SHIFT BRIEFLY
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
MOST OTHER AREAS...MINIMALLY...THOUGH...TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ.
CURRENTLY...WITH ANY SHOWER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT TO 30 TO 35KT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...THEN LIKELY TO AT LEAST 40KT OR A LITTLE BETTER OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS INCREASES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
226 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER
OVERNIGHT...THEN RETREAT BACK NORTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM WEDNESDAY...
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE
30S...AND 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH KGSO AND KMHX NOTED A VERY DRY
COLUMN BASICALLY TO THE TROPOPAUSE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT EAST OF THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS...THOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS APPEARED TO BE THINNING AS THEY MOVED EAST TOWARD THE AREA.
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE...PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ITS MODEL
SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY IN THE MEAN THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER SUBSIDENCE. AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON...A LITTLE BETTER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE
MAY HELP ALLOW FOR MORE OF A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY
OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR WRF LOW-LEVEL WIND FORECAST
SUGGESTS A LIGHT NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KIXA
FROM 23Z TO 02Z. GIVEN THE DRY AIR...EXPECTED AMPLE SUNSHINE...AND
1000-850MB THICKNESSES FROM THE 12Z KGSO OBSERVATION TO WHAT IS
FORECAST LATER TODAY...RAISED MAXES A DEGREE OR TWO MOST
LOCATIONS... CLOSER TO THE MOS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. MANY TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 70F AT JUST AFTER 930 AM SUN-TIME. -DJF
TONIGHT...AS THE FRONT SETTLES ALONG THE NC-VA BORDER...MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WHERE NON-MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR AS THE 00Z/02 NAM SHOWS DEEPER SATURATION
OWING TO WEAK S/W ENERGY CRESTING ATOP THE RIDGE ALOFT. LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. -CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
THU: A COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTH IN BACKDOOR FASHION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
TONIGHT...TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER BY THU
MORNING - 50 TO 100 MILES FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
WHILE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS A COLD ONE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN -
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BENEATH THE CENTER OF THE
1024 HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING - AN EQUALLY STRONG
HIGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. EQUILIBRIUM
BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL MEET RESISTANCE
AS IT TRIES TO DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC...AND AS SUCH...THE FARTHER
SOUTH FRONTAL POSITIONING OF THE NAM...SOUTH OF US HWY 64...IS
CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS ONE
INDICATED BY THE EC AND GFS...SUCH THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER...ROUGHLY ALONG AN ARC FROM KDAN-KETC-
KHAT...AND WHOSE POSITION WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED LESS BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE PROCESSES/EQUILIBRIUM AND MORE BY
MESOSCALE ONES DRIVEN BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS COOL (MID 30S-MID
40S FAHRENHEIT) MID-ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS PER AVHRR-OBSERVED SST
DATA.
THE RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY UP TO A FEW
DEGREES (INTO THE LOWER 80S) SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED FRONTAL
POSITION...BASED UPON THE ANTECEDENT WARMTH THAT RESULTED IN HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S ALREADY ON TUE...WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO THOSE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST NEAR THE VA BORDER (IN THE MID-UPPER 70S).
BOTH THE 00Z/2ND NAM AND EC ALSO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN NC...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AROUND THE TOP OF A 318-319 DM
RIDGE OVER THE FL PENINSULA. MOISTURE IN BOTH MODELS IS MOSTLY OF
THE MID LEVEL VARIETY...SO THE PROSPECTS OF RAINFALL - OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A SPRINKLE - IS LOW...PARTICULARLY SINCE THE PARENT...
ALREADY-LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE SHOULD ONLY FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE RIDGE OVER THE SE.
THU NIGHT: THE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH VA THU
NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF A CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MIGRATE
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. MILD LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED.
FRI AND FRI NIGHT: OVERALL MINIMAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES...THOUGH
NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. CONTINUED WARM FRI...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S
NW PIEDMONT WHERE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ESPECIALLY AFTER
NOON...RANGING TO PERSISTENCE LOWER 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
DESPITE AROUND 500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY FRI...AND SIGNIFICANT INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE SEA BREEZE OWING TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE FLOW...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MID
LEVEL CAP AND ASSOCIATED CINH BETWEEN 100-150 J/KG. AS SUCH...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY CUMULUS TO BREAK THE CAP UNTIL BETTER
DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...BUT STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ...ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
IN FACT...IT IS LIKELY THAT A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EVOLVE FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST
STATES...IN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE
AND PARENT S/W TROUGH/UPPER LOW; AND THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...OR PERHAPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN WITH BOTH TIME AND WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT...OWING TO BOTH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND THE WELL-
TO-OUR-NW PASSAGE OF THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. NONETHELESS...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
CONDITIONAL UPON THUNDER INDEED MATERIALIZING - MORE LIKELY WEST OF
THE TRIANGLE WHERE THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BETTER COINCIDE
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
SAT THROUGH SUN: THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SAT...BUT LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IN WNW POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL
OTHERWISE PREVAIL. STILL WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT
NIGHT. COOLER SUN - IN THE 60S - IN NE FLOW AROUND 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE WHOSE TIMING IS FASTER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS WHAT IT
APPEARED YESTERDAY.
NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL INDEED BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AND BUCKLE NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUN-
MON. THE ASSOCIATED CONFLUENCE ALOFT INDUCED BY THE BUCKLING OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF A DAMMING HIGH
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GOM. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER IN A STRENGTHENING REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP
THE SURFACE HIGH...AND CONSEQUENT RAIN AND CAD...FOR SUN NIGHT-MON.
AFTER PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE IN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MON NIGHT-EARLY
TUE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A L/W TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS COULD BE CHALLENGING PARTICULARLY FROM KINT
AND KGSO TO KRWI...INCLUDING KRDU...WHERE WINDS COULD SHIFT BRIEFLY
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
MOST OTHER AREAS...MINIMALLY...THOUGH...TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ.
CURRENTLY...WITH ANY SHOWER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT TO 30 TO 35KT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...THEN LIKELY TO AT LEAST 40KT OR A LITTLE BETTER OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS INCREASES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/CBL
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1041 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA BORDER
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM WEDNESDAY...
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE
30S...AND 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH KGSO AND KMHX NOTED A VERY DRY
COLUMN BASICALLY TO THE TROPOPAUSE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT EAST OF THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS...THOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS APPEARED TO BE THINNING AS THEY MOVED EAST TOWARD THE AREA.
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE...PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ITS MODEL
SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY IN THE MEAN THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER SUBSIDENCE. AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON...A LITTLE BETTER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE
MAY HELP ALLOW FOR MORE OF A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY
OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR WRF LOW-LEVEL WIND FORECAST
SUGGESTS A LIGHT NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KIXA
FROM 23Z TO 02Z. GIVEN THE DRY AIR...EXPECTED AMPLE SUNSHINE...AND
1000-850MB THICKNESSES FROM THE 12Z KGSO OBSERVATION TO WHAT IS
FORECAST LATER TODAY...RAISED MAXES A DEGREE OR TWO MOST
LOCATIONS... CLOSER TO THE MOS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. MANY TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 70F AT JUST AFTER 930 AM SUN-TIME. -DJF
TONIGHT...AS THE FRONT SETTLES ALONG THE NC-VA BORDER...MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WHERE NON-MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR AS THE 00Z/02 NAM SHOWS DEEPER SATURATION
OWING TO WEAK S/W ENERGY CRESTING ATOP THE RIDGE ALOFT. LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. -CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
THU: A COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTH IN BACKDOOR FASHION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
TONIGHT...TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER BY THU
MORNING - 50 TO 100 MILES FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
WHILE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS A COLD ONE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN -
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BENEATH THE CENTER OF THE
1024 HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING - AN EQUALLY STRONG
HIGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. EQUILIBRIUM
BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL MEET RESISTANCE
AS IT TRIES TO DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC...AND AS SUCH...THE FARTHER
SOUTH FRONTAL POSITIONING OF THE NAM...SOUTH OF US HWY 64...IS
CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS ONE
INDICATED BY THE EC AND GFS...SUCH THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER...ROUGHLY ALONG AN ARC FROM KDAN-KETC-
KHAT...AND WHOSE POSITION WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED LESS BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE PROCESSES/EQUILIBRIUM AND MORE BY
MESOSCALE ONES DRIVEN BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS COOL (MID 30S-MID
40S FAHRENHEIT) MID-ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS PER AVHRR-OBSERVED SST
DATA.
THE RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY UP TO A FEW
DEGREES (INTO THE LOWER 80S) SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED FRONTAL
POSITION...BASED UPON THE ANTECEDENT WARMTH THAT RESULTED IN HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S ALREADY ON TUE...WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO THOSE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST NEAR THE VA BORDER (IN THE MID-UPPER 70S).
BOTH THE 00Z/2ND NAM AND EC ALSO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN NC...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AROUND THE TOP OF A 318-319 DM
RIDGE OVER THE FL PENINSULA. MOISTURE IN BOTH MODELS IS MOSTLY OF
THE MID LEVEL VARIETY...SO THE PROSPECTS OF RAINFALL - OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A SPRINKLE - IS LOW...PARTICULARLY SINCE THE PARENT...
ALREADY-LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE SHOULD ONLY FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE RIDGE OVER THE SE.
THU NIGHT: THE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH VA THU
NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF A CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MIGRATE
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. MILD LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED.
FRI AND FRI NIGHT: OVERALL MINIMAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES...THOUGH
NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. CONTINUED WARM FRI...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S
NW PIEDMONT WHERE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ESPECIALLY AFTER
NOON...RANGING TO PERSISTENCE LOWER 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
DESPITE AROUND 500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY FRI...AND SIGNIFICANT INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE SEA BREEZE OWING TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE FLOW...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MID
LEVEL CAP AND ASSOCIATED CINH BETWEEN 100-150 J/KG. AS SUCH...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY CUMULUS TO BREAK THE CAP UNTIL BETTER
DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...BUT STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ...ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
IN FACT...IT IS LIKELY THAT A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EVOLVE FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST
STATES...IN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE
AND PARENT S/W TROUGH/UPPER LOW; AND THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...OR PERHAPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN WITH BOTH TIME AND WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT...OWING TO BOTH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND THE WELL-
TO-OUR-NW PASSAGE OF THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. NONETHELESS...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
CONDITIONAL UPON THUNDER INDEED MATERIALIZING - MORE LIKELY WEST OF
THE TRIANGLE WHERE THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BETTER COINCIDE
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
SAT THROUGH SUN: THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SAT...BUT LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IN WNW POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL
OTHERWISE PREVAIL. STILL WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT
NIGHT. COOLER SUN - IN THE 60S - IN NE FLOW AROUND 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE WHOSE TIMING IS FASTER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS WHAT IT
APPEARED YESTERDAY.
NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL INDEED BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AND BUCKLE NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUN-
MON. THE ASSOCIATED CONFLUENCE ALOFT INDUCED BY THE BUCKLING OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF A DAMMING HIGH
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GOM. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER IN A STRENGTHENING REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP
THE SURFACE HIGH...AND CONSEQUENT RAIN AND CAD...FOR SUN NIGHT-MON.
AFTER PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE IN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MON NIGHT-EARLY
TUE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A L/W TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASE LATE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS AN WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE AREA...STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS FO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK: OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...MIGHT BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS
OVERRUNNING PRECIP SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...DJF/CBL
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
849 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS OCCURRING IN AN BAND NEARLY PARALLEL WITH I-70 WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING. MEANWHILE...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE THIS DEPICTED
PRETTY WELL ASIDE FROM BEING A BIT TOO FAR NORTH. SO HAVE TAKEN AN
ADJUSTED HRRR SOLUTION AND TRACKED THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON RECENT TRENDS BUT OVERALL HIGHS
STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE EAST-TO-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN A KEY FEATURE FOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FRONT ACTUALLY EXTENDS ALL THE
WAY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CONNECTING TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EVEN BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH-RES MODELS
DEPICT DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
REGION BY EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED AT
THIS POINT...BUT THE WARM FRONTAL PROCESSES ABOVE 900MB WILL
REALLY BE STARTING TO STRENGTHEN. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK WAVE AT
700MB...WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS ACTIVITY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SET OF FORECAST CONCERNS WILL SET UP FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
ORIENTED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE WARM SECTOR WELL ESTABLISHED
ALOFT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (EVIDENT AT 850MB AND BELOW) WILL
TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY DURING PEAK DIURNAL TIMING. ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...A SETUP FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FAVORED. BY
THIS POINT...THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 225-275 PERCENT OF
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING ALONG THE
SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY ARE ADDITIONAL INGREDIENTS THAT WILL ALLOW
SOME PERIODS OF PERSISTENT RAIN ON THURSDAY. NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...CONCERN HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH REGARDS TO
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING MUCH INSTABILITY (WITH THIN CAPE
PROFILES)...AND THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT KEEPS SBCAPE
GENERATION SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...AN ABUNDANCE OF WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE...MOST
CONCERNINGLY WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TURNING IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A WIND THREAT...BUT THE HELICITY AND
MOISTURE (WITH LCLS UNDER 2500 FEET) INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT.
ON A LARGER SCALE...THE BIG STORY FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN CWA (WHERE THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A MODERATE RISK). THIS FRONT (AND PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH) WILL BE THE FINAL
CONCERN FOR THE ILN AREA. ON THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY...BEFORE THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BE STRENGTHENING...AND WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG (HARDLY
UNEXPECTED FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM). THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP INSTABILITY IN PLACE
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LATER ON
FRIDAY...SW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS EVEN STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO
GUSTY CONDITIONS...AND WIND GUST NUMBERS WERE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE POTENTIAL
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS STILL A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
QUESTIONS REGARDING THE JUXTAPOSITION OF FRONTAL
TIMING...MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY. THERE IS DEFINITELY AT LEAST
SOME LEVEL OF WIND THREAT...WITH A QLCS TYPE OF EVENT DEFINITELY
IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
TO SUMMARIZE THE HWO THREATS...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHWESTERNMOST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...AND THE
SEVERE THREAT (WIND / TORNADO) HAS BEEN MENTIONED CWA-WIDE. BOTH
THREATS ARE KEYED TWO-FOLD TO THE THURSDAY WAVE AND FRIDAY MORNING
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH...WHICH IS
TO BE EXPECTED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MIN TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA GOING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 60 DEGREES STRAIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES WERE REQUIRED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY. THOUGH THE LOW APPEARS
ON THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. AN UPPER TROUGH TRAILING THE
SURFACE LOW MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS THEREAFTER ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S...AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO PLACE AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...AND
THE MONITORING OF UPSTREAM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN CASE
AMENDMENTS WOULD BE NEEDED.
ON THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES
WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...CATEGORY BY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1122 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES INITIALLY WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON DUE TO LOW LVL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION. MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVELENT BY MORNING...WITH SOME IFR
POSSIBLE ACRS NE OK AND NW AR. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFT 15Z WED MORNING MOST LIKELY...AND BEST CHCS WILL BE OVER
SE OK INTO NW AR. AFTERNOON STORMS OUT WEST WILL AT LEAST BE IN
THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINALS AFT 00Z WED EVENING. I ALSO AM EXPTG
RISING OF CIGS INTO THE VFR RANGE AT MOST SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST UPDATES WILL FOCUS ON VERY NEAR
TERM TRENDS IN TEMP AND CLOUD COVER. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WELL
DEFINED WARM FRONT ESPECIALLY EVIDENT IN DEW POINT FIELD...ROUGHLY
FROM SHAWNEE TO TAHLEQUAH AND INTO NW CORNER OF ARKANSAS. VERY
MILD SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING IN UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WHILE SOME AREAS NORTH HAVE FALLEN INTO MID 40S.
EXPECT BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT REACHING NEAR
OK/KS BORDER BY MORNING...THUS TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE LATER TONIGHT
IN THE NORTH AFTER BOTTOMING OUT IN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE
REMAINING VERY MILD TO THE SOUTH.
TWO AREAS OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL BE
NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT AS HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNAL OF EXPANDING SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NW TEXAS NORTH AND EAST
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE REDUCED POPS IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH 06Z WITH HIGHER CHANCE NEAR OK/KS BORDER AFTER 06Z.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED OVER THE REGION. ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NE OK...MVFR CIGS ARE SCATTERING
OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL GOING INTO
THE EVENING. LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE DVLPMT OF
MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CIGS AT SOME PLACES AFT 06Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE WED AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TSRA COULD AFFECT THE NE OK
SITES THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
OUR AREA.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ARCS FROM SWRN MO INTO SRN OK...WITH NE OK
REMAINING COOL (50S) AND CLOUDY ON THE N SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA AS THE WARM FRONT WILL
ONLY SLOWLY LIFT N THROUGH TONIGHT. PLAN ON SHOWING A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP FOR NE OK...WITH TEMPS LIKELY RISING LATER TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW-END POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO KS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OUR FORECAST
AREA REMAINING IN THE WARM/MOIST (MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS) SECTOR.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHLY CONDITIONAL THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS MODERATE CAP WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS
LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE
TRIPLE-POINT NEAR THE SCNTRL KS/NRN OK BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY DEVELOP INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WITH
STORMS TRACKING E/NE ACROSS ERN OK/NWRN AR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS EJECTS E INTO THE
PLAINS. DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE E THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO ERN
OK WHERE A MOIST/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL EXIST. THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE DRYLINE AROUND 18-21Z...WITH THE
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WRN AR DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE SWEEPS E. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE FORECAST WIND FIELDS...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE IMPACTS THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 51 79 65 78 / 30 30 60 40
FSM 62 77 65 77 / 20 40 60 80
MLC 67 78 66 78 / 20 40 60 60
BVO 49 80 62 76 / 40 30 60 40
FYV 60 75 63 74 / 30 40 60 80
BYV 58 75 61 76 / 30 40 60 80
MKO 59 78 64 78 / 20 40 60 60
MIO 46 77 63 76 / 40 30 60 60
F10 59 78 65 79 / 20 40 60 50
HHW 68 78 66 78 / 20 40 50 60
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
948 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SE KY CONVECTION HAS PASSED SE
IN SW VA...BUT SO FAR SHOWERS AND TSRA HAVE REMAINED JUST NW AND N
OF OUR NRN MOST COUNTIES. RAP MODEL AND GENERALLY OTHER FORECAST
PRODUCTS INDICATE JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS OR A STRAY TSRA CLIPPING SW VA
AND NE TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN NOTHING MORE UNITL
TOWARD OR AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS LOTS OF SHEAR
REMAINING...BUT THE MUCAPE HAS NOW DROPPED BELOW 750 J/KG AND MLCAPE
LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
PLAN TO UPDATE THE FORECAST GRIDS BY 11PM EDT...MAINLY TO SEE IF
POPS CAN BE DROPPED AFTER 04Z...AND TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING FROM
THE ZFP PRODUCT. OTHERWISE...HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE AND MIN
TEMPS ALSO LOOK ON TRACK.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
324 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT NOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND RESIDES ACROSS KY. DEWPOINTS
ARE GENERALLY NOW INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. RADAR IS PRECIP FREE
FOR NOW BUT WE ARE WATCHING A DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN MS AND NE AR. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRANSFER OF ENERGY WITHIN THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVERNIGHT. HRRR CONCURS WITH DEVELOPMENT OVERSPREADING A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE REASONABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM SWILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG WITH HIGH WINDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING OR PRE MIDNIGHT HOURS. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS AS THE BETTER VORTICITY CENTERS ARE
WELL EAST OF THE MID STATE BY 12Z.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...INSTABILITY...MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL ALL BE ON THE INCREASE. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL COME INTO PLAY...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND 16Z AND
BEYOND. AT THAT TIME...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. IN THE AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG TSTMS AND
MAYBE EVEN 1 OR 2 SEVERE STORMS. CAPES APPROACH 1000J/KG AND COMBINE
WITH A 40 KT 850 MB FLOW WITHIN A SEMI-IMPRESSIVE OMEGA SHIELD. MEAN
MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL BE MOVING FROM ABOUT 240
DEG. ALSO NOTE THAT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT
I DO NOT FORESEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP. EVEN THOUGH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT TAKE PLACE
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...PREFRONTAL FORCING WILL AID WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS. NOTE THAT THE BETTER OVERALL DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEST OF MIDDLE TN. ORGANIZATION
DEFICIENCIES OF OMEGA FIELDS COUPLED WITH LOWER CAPES AND WEAKER JET
DYNAMICS MAY IMPEDE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY FROM REACHING SEVERE
LEVELS. TYPICALLY...THE 50KT+ LLJ SPEEDS WILL EXIST SIMULTANEOUSLY
WITH WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR OMEGA FIELDS. WE JUST ARE NOT SEEING THAT
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THAT SAID...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S WITH SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE 12Z SHOWALTER VALUES CANNOT BE
DISMISSED. IN THE ZONES...I WILL MENTION SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN
AREAS.
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...SATURDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY AS WELL LOOK TO BE 2
NICE DAYS AS WE ENJOY A BRIEFLY DRY PATTERN. BUT...THIS WILL NOT
LAST AS A SFC LOW IX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF AND TRACK
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID STATE. FURTHERMORE...ONCE THE LOW TRACK NE
OF OUR AREA...AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL REINFORCE OUR RAIN CHANCES.
TSTM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THIS PATTERN.
BUT...THAT SFC LOW MIGHT TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...WHICH WOULD
MEAN A FEW MORE TSTMS.
AS FOR TEMPS...IN THE SHORT TERM...MILD AND ON THE HUMID SIDE
THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL COOL DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THOUGH. IN THE EXTENDED...TEMPS LOOK TO BE
GENERALLY NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. BUT...THAT COULD CHANGE AND WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 63 77 62 72 / 50 50 80 30
CLARKSVILLE 61 76 60 68 / 60 60 80 20
CROSSVILLE 59 75 59 71 / 20 20 70 70
COLUMBIA 63 78 63 72 / 30 40 80 30
LAWRENCEBURG 61 78 63 72 / 30 30 80 20
WAVERLY 62 76 61 69 / 60 60 90 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
624 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATERS WL ONCE AGAIN QUICKLY DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE VCNTY OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU NORTH OF DRT WL BE A FACTOR TNT. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD REACH LRD BY 06-07Z AND THE REMAINING TAF SITES BY
09Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID LVL LAPSE
RATES WL REMAIN VERY GOOD ALONG WITH FAVORABLE FORCING FROM THE
LFQ OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. HOWEVER...THE STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND STRONG INFLUENCE
FROM THE MARINE LAYER WL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER TO A
MINIMUM. BASED UPON THIS REASONING AND THE RECENT HRRR OUTPUT...BLV
THAT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND CLOSE TO THE TIME OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...A RAPID TRANSITION FROM IFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOST AREAS WL BE
AT VFR LVLS BY 15-17Z AS STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR PUSH INTO SOUTH TX BEHIND A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN CWA WILL BECOME LIGHT...WITH WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO
THE EAST AND THEN NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEAR 12Z.
PWATS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM APPROX. 1
IN OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO 1.5 OR 1.6 OVER THE COASTAL
BEND...VICTORIA CROSSROADS...AND WATERS. 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE IN
THE 40-50 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF A RATHER STRONG CAP AT 850
MB. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE
CAP...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH...THIS
APPEARS LESS LIKELY TO BE THE CASE. REGARDLESS...AM NOT EXPECTING
MUCH CONVECTION TO BE ABLE TO OCCUR AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. GOING OFF OF MODELED HODOGRAPHS AND BRN
VALUES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME STORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO LINGER
OFFSHORE TOMORROW UNTIL NOON...AFTER WHICH POINT THINGS WILL CLEAR
UP A BIT. PWATS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BACK TO PREFRONTAL LEVELS
QUITE QUICKLY...AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL DESTABILIZE THINGS ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP...MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACRS THE SWRN CONUS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A SFC WAVE NEAR
THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH SFC (SFC WAVE)...UPPER FORCING
(Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE 700-300MB AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS)...AND MSTR
(GFS PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE ONE INCH)...WL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST
SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CWA/MSA SAT/SUN. STG 0-6KM
VERTICAL SHEAR MAY RESULT IN STG STORMS SAT...YET WL NOT INTRODUCE
SUCH WORDING YET. THE GFS/ECMWF MOVES THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY. STG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING PROGD MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. FURTHER...A SFC SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE/FRONT
EXPECTED MONDAY. SCA CONDITIONS PSBL SATURDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS OWING TO SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR BY
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SURGE. VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. RTN FLOW/INCREASING MSTR EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
WEDNESDAY YET PWAT VALUES PROGD TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 82 62 72 63 / 20 20 30 40 40
VICTORIA 64 78 55 66 58 / 40 20 20 50 50
LAREDO 62 81 61 77 62 / 20 10 10 20 30
ALICE 64 82 59 71 60 / 20 10 20 30 40
ROCKPORT 67 79 61 70 64 / 30 20 30 50 50
COTULLA 61 78 56 70 57 / 30 10 10 20 30
KINGSVILLE 67 81 61 74 63 / 20 20 30 40 40
NAVY CORPUS 68 80 63 70 65 / 20 20 30 50 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB/80...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
102 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...CEILING TRENDS.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR...BUT IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS...
SOME LOCATIONS HAVE DETERIORATED ONCE AGAIN. THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST OF I-35...BUT TAF
SITES MAY SEE SOME BRIEF RAIN. WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS BENIGN CONVECTION TO TRANSITION TO
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL THINK THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY NEAR IN
APPROACHING DRYLINE. THIS COULD IMPACT WEST DEPARTURES AND
NORTHWEST ARRIVALS BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE ACTIVITY WILL REACH ANY
TAF SITES.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL TEXAS AGAIN THIS EVENING...REACHING
THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SOON THEREAFTER. A DRYLINE WILL
SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY...LIKELY
BEFORE ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES.
WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT CROSSWIND ISSUES.
EXTENDED...
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
25
&&
.UPDATE...
RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POP CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE EVENING
BASED ON CURRENT THINKING. THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
MIDLAND TO NEAR CHILDRESS WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY FALLING OFF TO THE
WEST. MODELS TRY TO SHARPEN THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES EAST BEFORE STALLING WEST OF THE CWA
NEAR ABILENE ONCE AGAIN. THE HRRR FORECASTED YESTERDAYS STORMS
FAIRLY WELL...AND IS INITIATING CONVECTION NEAR THE DRYLINE WEST
OF THE CWA...THEN SKIRTING A STORM INTO THE THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER 00Z. CHANCES FOR A LONGTRACK STORM THROUGH OUR CWA LIKE LAST
NIGHT ARE A BIT LESS LIKELY TODAY. SOME MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE
DRYLINE TO STALL FARTHER WEST TODAY WHICH MEANS STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TODAY HAVE A LONGER WAY TO GO BEFORE MAKING IT INTO OUR
CWA. STORM MOTIONS TODAY WILL ALSO BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY THAN
EASTERLY WHICH WOULD FAVOR LESS ACTIVITY IN THE CWA. THINK 20 POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN COVERING
ANY THREAT.
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN
PLACE...BUT WITH ONGOING HEIGHT FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH...THE CAP SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT. MODELS ARE
SHOWING NO CAP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AFTER 20Z AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS...BUT LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE CONVECTION. UPPED POPS TO 30 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014/
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR TODAY...THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED BACK TO THE NM/TX BORDER
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE CWA DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
THE DRYLINE WILL ONLY REACH A MUNDAY...ABILENE...BALLINGER LINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT WILL BE MINIMUM DURING
THE DAY... CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AT MID AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE DRYLINE. DUE TO HIGH CAPE...VERY
NEGATIVE LI/S AND 25-30 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR...STRONG PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS WILL LEAD TO LARGE HAIL FORMATION /UP TO TENNIS
BALL/...A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND MAYBE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT AGAIN INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...BUT WILL
MAKE A STRONG PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS A DAY OF WORRY AS DYNAMICS
AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AGAIN LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. TO THE WEST OF I-35 ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA
AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AND WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF OKLAHOMA IN THE EVENING
AND BRING US COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS ACTIVE WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OFF SHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS...
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BACK OVER THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH LOW CHANCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SLOWING OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING AND ON TUESDAY...THUS DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM TODAY AND ON THURSDAY THEN
RETURNING TO SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 82 68 82 50 70 / 20 20 30 10 5
WACO, TX 82 72 81 51 72 / 20 20 30 10 5
PARIS, TX 79 69 79 50 67 / 30 50 60 20 5
DENTON, TX 82 66 80 47 69 / 20 20 30 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 80 69 80 48 69 / 20 20 40 10 5
DALLAS, TX 82 69 82 50 70 / 20 20 40 10 5
TERRELL, TX 81 70 79 51 67 / 30 30 40 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 81 70 80 52 67 / 30 20 40 20 5
TEMPLE, TX 82 73 82 52 70 / 20 20 30 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 83 64 83 47 69 / 20 20 10 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1118 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POP CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE EVENING
BASED ON CURRENT THINKING. THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
MIDLAND TO NEAR CHILDRESS WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY FALLING OFF TO THE
WEST. MODELS TRY TO SHARPEN THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES EAST BEFORE STALLING WEST OF THE CWA
NEAR ABILENE ONCE AGAIN. THE HRRR FORECASTED YESTERDAYS STORMS
FAIRLY WELL...AND IS INITIATING CONVECTION NEAR THE DRYLINE WEST
OF THE CWA...THEN SKIRTING A STORM INTO THE THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER 00Z. CHANCES FOR A LONGTRACK STORM THROUGH OUR CWA LIKE LAST
NIGHT ARE A BIT LESS LIKELY TODAY. SOME MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE
DRYLINE TO STALL FARTHER WEST TODAY WHICH MEANS STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TODAY HAVE A LONGER WAY TO GO BEFORE MAKING IT INTO OUR
CWA. STORM MOTIONS TODAY WILL ALSO BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY THAN
EASTERLY WHICH WOULD FAVOR LESS ACTIVITY IN THE CWA. THINK 20 POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN COVERING
ANY THREAT.
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN
PLACE...BUT WITH ONGOING HEIGHT FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH...THE CAP SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT. MODELS ARE
SHOWING NO CAP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AFTER 20Z AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS...BUT LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE CONVECTION. UPPED POPS TO 30 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014/
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR TODAY...THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED BACK TO THE NM/TX BORDER
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE CWA DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
THE DRYLINE WILL ONLY REACH A MUNDAY...ABILENE...BALLINGER LINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT WILL BE MINIMUM DURING
THE DAY... CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AT MID AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE DRYLINE. DUE TO HIGH CAPE...VERY
NEGATIVE LI/S AND 25-30 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR...STRONG PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS WILL LEAD TO LARGE HAIL FORMATION /UP TO TENNIS
BALL/...A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND MAYBE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT AGAIN INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...BUT WILL
MAKE A STRONG PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS A DAY OF WORRY AS DYNAMICS
AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AGAIN LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. TO THE WEST OF I-35 ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA
AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AND WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF OKLAHOMA IN THE EVENING
AND BRING US COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS ACTIVE WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OFF SHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS...
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BACK OVER THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH LOW CHANCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SLOWING OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING AND ON TUESDAY...THUS DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM TODAY AND ON THURSDAY THEN
RETURNING TO SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 82 68 82 50 70 / 20 20 30 10 5
WACO, TX 82 72 81 51 72 / 20 20 30 10 5
PARIS, TX 79 69 79 50 67 / 30 50 60 20 5
DENTON, TX 82 66 80 47 69 / 20 20 30 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 80 69 80 48 69 / 20 20 40 10 5
DALLAS, TX 82 69 82 50 70 / 20 20 40 10 5
TERRELL, TX 81 70 79 51 67 / 30 30 40 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 81 70 80 52 67 / 30 20 40 20 5
TEMPLE, TX 82 73 82 52 70 / 20 20 30 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 83 64 83 47 69 / 20 20 10 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
DRYLINE FAIRLY STATIONARY JUST WEST OF LUBBOCK ATTM WITH AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS TO THE EAST OF IT. SOME CONCERN
THAT MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING IT WELL BY MOVING IT TOO QUICKLY EWD
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE WINDS AOB 12KTS REGARDLESS...BUT POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO WORK NWD TOWARD BOTH TERMINALS IF
THIS EWD MOVEMENT DOES NOT OCCUR. THAT SOLUTION REMAINS A LONG
SHOT ATTM AND WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS
TO BREEZY AND GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING BY 18Z AS THE DRYLINE WILL
INDEED MOVE QUICKLY EWD DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
AVIATION...
DRYLINE MADE IT JUST TO THE WEST OF KLBB AND IS ALREADY SHOWING
SIGNS OF PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST. WILL SEE A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF
GUSTY S/SSE WINDS BEFORE RELAXING TO AROUND 11KTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW EARLIER
TOMORROW...LIKELY BY 18Z AND BE NEAR 20G30KTS THROUGH THE AFTN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE 3 PM WEST TEXAS MESONET OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE DRYLINE
FIRMING UP ACROSS BAILEY...HOCKLEY AND LYNN COUNTIES...HEADING
EAST. MEANWHILE A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCED FROM THE NRN PERMIAN
BASIN...SEWD TO NEAR SWEETWATER...THEN NEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE IT WAS RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT. UNDERNEATH A
SWATH OF CIRRUS...SOME CU DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED ON SAT IMAGERY NEAR
SWEETWATER...WHERE INSTABILITY WAS BUILDING AS MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
FLOW NWWD INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. SHORT-RANGE PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ MAY REACH STONEWALL COUNTY BY
22-23 UTC. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK...WE DO EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING AS A SMALL
SPEED-MAX IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACHES FROM THE W-SW. WHILE
SB-CAPES APPROACHING 2K J/KG AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KTS
OR SO SHOULD RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WE THINK THAT GIVEN THAT
EXPECTED ISOLATED STORM INITIATION MAY BE MOST FAVORED IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF STONEWALL AND PERHAPS KING COUNTIES...THE THREAT OF SVR
WX WILL BE MAINLY JUST TO OUR EAST AS THE STORMS MOVE NEWD.
HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE ANY T-STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY INTENSITY PRETTY
QUICKLY. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55-60 MPH
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE SMALL STORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY LATE
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. TONIGHT...THE RAP AND THE
HRRR ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODELS IN DEPICTING THE DRYLINE
RETREATING BACK INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL SPLNS...WHICH COULD BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG OR THIN LOW STRATUS TO THE AREA...WHILE THE
NAM AND GFS ARE MUCH LESS BULLISH ON THIS IDEA. FOR NOW...WE/VE
HINTED AT A FARTHER NWWD MOISTURE RETURN BUT HAVE NOT BOUGHT INTO IT
COMPLETELY...AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THE TRENDS. IT
WILL BE MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ALSO
SOME LOW 60S SOUTHEAST.
NO MATTER HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE MOISTURE GETS TONIGHT...IT WILL
BE READILY SCOURED OUT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE FACE OF INCREASING STRONG
AND DEEP SW FLOW. THE DRYLINE MAY STILL HUG OUR ERN BORDER AROUND
NOON-TIME...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED OFF WELL EAST BY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 25 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND THIS
SHOULD KICK UP SOME BLOWING DUST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 70S NW TO NEAR 90 SE.
LONG TERM...
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED
FROM A MODERATELY UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME TO A MORE STABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF LONGWAVE RIDGING TO OUR WEST.
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FOCUSED ON TWO PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS LATER
THIS WEEK IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...ONE FOR THURSDAY AND THE OTHER BY
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FORMER PROMISES TO SWING A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON THURSDAY COMPLETE
WITH BORDERLINE ADVISORY WINDS...BUT THE STRONGEST 850-700MB WINDS
ARE FORTUNATELY SHOWN TO TRANSLATE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION
BEFORE PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF EVEN COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING A WEAK
POLAR FRONT BY SUNSET.
AFTER A FLEETING S/W RIDGE ON FRIDAY...THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH SHOWS
SOME PROMISE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER BY SATURDAY AS IT SPURS
WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION COMPLETE WITH A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH LL DEWPOINTS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
INSPIRING GIVEN THE MODIFIED FETCH OF MOISTURE FOLLOWING THU
NIGHT/S FRONT...AN AXIS OF ISENTROPIC MOISTENING AND LIFT FROM
300-310K COULD SET UP FAVORABLY FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS SETUP
LOOKS TO FAVOR A LOW CAPE AND MODERATE/STRONG SHEAR SCENARIO...SO
WE/LL BE MONITORING THIS IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS THESE DECEPTIVELY
LOW CAPE AIR MASSES CAN GARNER ROTATING STORMS WITH SUCH FAVORABLE
SHEAR AND LIFT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALIVE ALL AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BEFORE SCALING THESE BACK FROM WEST-TO-EAST ON
SUNDAY. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO BE REINFORCED
THEREAFTER AS WE TRANSITION INTO NWLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 27. THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT...WITH POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SW TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH PLAINS...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERY
ELSEWHERE.
THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH VERY
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING EASTWARD.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE CWA AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY FROM 11
AM TO 10 PM.
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IN THE MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL WILDFIRE
THREAT NOW APPEARS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN EARLIER INDICATED GIVEN
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WHICH RARELY COINCIDE WITH ACTIVE WILDFIRE
DAYS. NONETHELESS...MIN RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT COMBINED WITH
20-FT WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WARRANT KEEPING THE FIRE WX WATCH INTACT
AREA WIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 44 75 38 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 43 80 41 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 45 81 43 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 44 80 43 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 49 82 46 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 47 79 47 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 48 81 46 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 53 88 48 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 55 86 49 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 64 90 50 80 45 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
747 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE
POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 614 PM EDT THURSDAY...
WATCHING LINE OF CONVECTION HEADING TOWARD SE WV LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HANDLING THIS WELL...AND SHOULD SEE
IT INVADE GREENBRIER BY 7 PM...AND QUESTION WILL BE IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER AS IT PASSES INTO DRIER AIR. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS. MADE UPDATED TO THE
FORECAST TO FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE 19Z HRRR AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
12Z WRF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING IS
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. DEW POINTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S...AND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
PATH NORTH.
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE ARE EXPECTING TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL COME TONIGHT AS A REGION OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS PROGRESSES EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO OUR AREA. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB AT
PINPOINTING WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS THESE TYPES OF SYSTEM SINCE
YESTERDAY. HAVE GIVEN IT CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT FOR PROJECTING THE
TRACK OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS SOLUTION HAS AN ARRIVAL TIME IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AROUND
00Z/8PM...AND A PROGRESSION SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA BY 06Z/2AM. THE ARRIVAL IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD BASED UPON
PROJECTED SPEED AND MOTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER OH/KY.
ISOLATED REMNANTS OF THE CLUSTER MAY DRIFT INTO SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. AS A WHOLE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE AS THE PRIMARY WARM
FRONT CONTINUES HEADING NORTH OF THE AREA.
ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL BE STEAMING NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...AND A
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE COVERAGE EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THE LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC PLACES A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH LARGE HAIL A
SECONDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO THOSE OF THIS
MORNING THANKS TO THE WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD. EXPECT A MIX
OF MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE LIMITED CLOUD COVER
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AXIS OF UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES CROSSED THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STILL ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR GUSTY WINDS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
TOWARD BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
DYNAMICS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF
REACH COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER ILLINOIS BY MONDAY MORNING AND TROF AXIS IS STILL TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POSITIVELY TILTED ON TUESDAY MORNING. 12Z
GFS SHOWED STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE A DRY SLOT COMING IN AROUND THE LOW BUT NOT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. HAVE
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT THURSDAY...
GOING TO SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TS NEAR LWB THIS
EVENING. HIGH-RES MODELS TAKE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WV AND
WEAKEN THEM AS THEY HEAD EAST THRU THE EVENING. HAVE SOME SHOWERS
AFFECTING BLF/LWB BETWEEN 00Z-04Z...BUT AS INSTABILITY
WEAKENS...NO THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY
VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE TOWARD ROA/BCB BETWEEN 02Z-04Z...WITH MAYBE
AFFECTING VSBYS TEMPORARILY TO MVFR RANGE. EVEN LYH COULD ACQUIRE
A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
ONCE THIS MOVES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL BE
STAYING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MAINLY AC/CS. THINK ENOUGH
LOW LVL MOISTURE IN THE MTNS AND WHERE IT RAINS TO FORM SOME FOG.
HAVE ADDED 3-4SM AT LYH/LWB/BCB AFTER 09Z.
ANY FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...WITH SKIES STAYING VFR WITH INCREASING
CU/TCU IN THE WEST BY MIDDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
START TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SW WITH GUST OVER 20 KNOTS EXPECTED.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA WILL REACH BLF/LWB AROUND
18Z...REACHING BCB/ROA AROUND 20Z AND BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT DAN/LYH. ATTM...ONLY HAVE VCTS AT BLF/LWB. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS EXISTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WELL AS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON WILL EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
REGION...ARRIVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1248 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE BIG QUESTION THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS WHETHER OR NOT
REMNANTS FROM A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY BORDERING OH/KY WILL
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND REACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS MIXED GUIDANCE WITHIN THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM GFS AND NAM. WHILE BOTH OFFER SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM...THE
DETAILS OF HOW PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12Z/8AM AND 18Z/2PM EVOLVES
TO GET TO THAT POINT DOES NOT MATCH WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED SO FAR.
THE 14Z/10AM HRRR GUIDANCE OFFERS A SOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
THE I-64 PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT CLEARLY HAS ITS ORIGIN
FROM THE CURRENT OH/KY CLUSTER. THE 13Z/9AM RUN HAD A SOLUTION
THAT HAD A LESSER AMOUNT OF PRECIP PROGRESSING JUST NORTH OF THIS
REGION. THE BRAND-NEW-AS-I-AM TYPING 15Z/11AM HRRR GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF A LITTLE COMPARED TO THE 14Z/10AM GUIDANCE WITH
PRECIPITATION JUST BARELY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BULLS-EYE OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
CHANGING...THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME REMNANT OF THE
OH/KY SYSTEM MAKES IT AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN WV HAS NOT CHANGED.
THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REFLECT A 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE I-64 REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR ABOUT
A THREE HOUR WINDOW DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FORECAST ADJUSTMENT INCLUDES AN INCREASE IN EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA INTO
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS. THIS AREA IS ALREADY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE
EARLIER EXPECTED HIGHS...SO HAVE INCREASED HIGHS BY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES ACCORDINGLY.
AS OF 950 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND RH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF IN/OH/KY. THIS ACTIVITY IS TAKING AN ALMOST
EASTERLY PATH...AND IF SURVIVES ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE EAST COAST
RIDGE...COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO OR VERY
NEAR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MID-
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z/8AM HRRR SUGGESTS SUCH A SCENARIO.
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1021 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER FLORIDA AND EXTENDED INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WAS BRINGING
MILD AIR UP FROM THE SOUTH...PROVIDING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH ABOVE SEASONAL WARMTH.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED FROM THE MASON-DIXON WESTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WAS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM PITTSBURGH TO
KANSAS CITY.
FOR TODAY OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BASK IN THE WARMTH COURTESY OF
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE SURFACE
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL INCH ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TODAY ARRIVING
ALONG OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER BY SUNSET. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO THE AREA BACKDOOR STYLE...HAVING MORE OF A SOUTHWARD
EXTENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE WINDS
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND ACCELERATING EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE COURTESY OF THE LEVEL BARRIER JET. FRONT WILL
THEN PROVIDE A PATH FOR ANY UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WHICH DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SENSIBLE TREND
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
ENHANCING THE SHOWER THREAT UPSTREAM OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE FELT THAT THE MODELS WERE OVERDONE WITH QPF...ALTHOUGH
CAN`T RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF GETTING BRUSHED BY ORGANIZED DEEPER
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN MOVING
EAST INTO WV/PA. ATTM ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND FAVORED THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AIR MASS STAYS MILD UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER
70S IN THE EAST.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
USED THE ENS MOS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONT
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THEN TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY THIS TIME WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW.
WILL LEAN TOWARD WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS A WESTERN TRACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/2AM THURSDAY. AFTER
THIS TIME WE WILL START TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IS PATCHY MVFR
CIGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE HEADING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE
NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z/8AM THURSDAY WITH INCREASED COVERAGE
OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MVFR VSBYS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE BY 18Z/2PM THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE WEST
CANNOT BE RULE OUT DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND BE NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GREATEST AREA OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH WITH WARM FRONT.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE AN ORGANIZED LINE OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR. BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AN INITIAL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF A CENTRAL
U.S. UPPER LOW. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1259 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON WILL EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
REGION...ARRIVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1248 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE BIG QUESTION THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS WHETHER OR NOT
REMNANTS FROM A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY BORDERING OH/KY WILL
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND REACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS MIXED GUIDANCE WITHIN THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM GFS AND NAM. WHILE BOTH OFFER SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM...THE
DETAILS OF HOW PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12Z/8AM AND 18Z/2PM EVOLVES
TO GET TO THAT POINT DOES NOT MATCH WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED SO FAR.
THE 14Z/10AM HRRR GUIDANCE OFFERS A SOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
THE I-64 PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT CLEARLY HAS ITS ORIGIN
FROM THE CURRENT OH/KY CLUSTER. THE 13Z/9AM RUN HAD A SOLUTION
THAT HAD A LESSER AMOUNT OF PRECIP PROGRESSING JUST NORTH OF THIS
REGION. THE BRAND-NEW-AS-I-AM TYPING 15Z/11AM HRRR GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF A LITTLE COMPARED TO THE 14Z/10AM GUIDANCE WITH
PRECIPITAITON JUST BARELY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BULLS-EYE OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
CHANGING...THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME REMNANT OF THE
OH/KY SYSTEM MAKES IT AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN WV HAS NOT CHANGED.
THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REFLECT A 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE I-64 REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR ABOUT
A THREE HOUR WINDOW DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FORECAST ADJUSTMENT INCLUDES AN INREASE IN EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA INTO
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS. THIS AREA IS ALREADY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE
EARLIER EXPECTED HIGHS...SO HAVE INCREASED HIGHS BY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES ACCORDINGLY.
AS OF 950 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND RH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF IN/OH/KY. THIS ACTIVITY IS TAKING AN ALMOST
EASTERLY PATH...AND IF SURVIVES ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE EAST COAST
RIDGE...COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO OR VERY
NEAR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MID-
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z/8AM HRRR SUGGESTS SUCH A SCENARIO.
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1021 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER FLORIDA AND EXTENDED INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WAS BRINGING
MILD AIR UP FROM THE SOUTH...PROVIDING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH ABOVE SEASONAL WARMTH.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED FROM THE MASON-DIXON WESTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WAS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM PITTSBURGH TO
KANSAS CITY.
FOR TODAY OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BASK IN THE WARMTH COURTESY OF
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE SURFACE
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL INCH ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TODAY ARRIVING
ALONG OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER BY SUNSET. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO THE AREA BACKDOOR STYLE...HAVING MORE OF A SOUTHWARD
EXTENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE WINDS
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND ACCELERATING EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE COURTESY OF THE LEVEL BARRIER JET. FRONT WILL
THEN PROVIDE A PATH FOR ANY UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WHICH DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SENSIBLE TREND
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
ENHANCING THE SHOWER THREAT UPSTREAM OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THE STRENGHT OF THE RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE FELT THAT THE MODELS WERE OVERDONE WITH QPF...ALTHOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF GETTING BRUSHED BY ORGANIZED DEEPER
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN MOVING
EAST INTO WV/PA. ATTM ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND FAVORED THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AIR MASS STAYS MILD UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER
70S IN THE EAST.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
USED THE ENS MOS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONT
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THEN TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY THIS TIME WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW.
WILL LEAN TOWARD WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS A WESTERN TRACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CIGS/VBSYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF VALID
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR
TOWARD 00Z THU...AND WILL LIKELY BACKDOOR AS FAR SOUTH AS KDAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
DRIFTING BACK NORTH THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE WEST...THEN COME MORE FROM
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BACKDOORS DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THINK WINDS AT LYNCHBURG WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY...AND OUT OF THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT ROANOKE AND POSSIBLY DANVILLE. WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS...KBLF AND VCNTY SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z/8AM
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING BACK NORTH
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT MAY TRANSLATE INTO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT FOR KBLF/KLWB AND POINTS NORTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LCL MVFR CONDITIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AN INITIAL TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FRONT WHICH CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STORM TRACK SUGGESTS PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1028 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON WILL EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
REGION...ARRIVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND RH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF IN/OH/KY. THIS ACTIVITY IS TAKING AN ALMOST
EASTERLY PATH...AND IF SURVIVES ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE EAST COAST
RIDGE...COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO OR VERY
NEAR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MID-
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z/8AM HRRR SUGGESTS SUCH A SCENARIO.
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1021 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER FLORIDA AND EXTENDED INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WAS BRINGING
MILD AIR UP FROM THE SOUTH...PROVIDING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH ABOVE SEASONAL WARMTH.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED FROM THE MASON-DIXON WESTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WAS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM PITTSBURGH TO
KANSAS CITY.
FOR TODAY OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BASK IN THE WARMTH COURTESY OF
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE SURFACE
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL INCH ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TODAY ARRIVING
ALONG OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER BY SUNSET. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO THE AREA BACKDOOR STYLE...HAVING MORE OF A SOUTHWARD
EXTENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE WINDS
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND ACCELERATING EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE COURTESY OF THE LEVEL BARRIER JET. FRONT WILL
THEN PROVIDE A PATH FOR ANY UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WHICH DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SENSIBLE TREND
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
ENHANCING THE SHOWER THREAT UPSTREAM OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THE STRENGHT OF THE RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE FELT THAT THE MODELS WERE OVERDONE WITH QPF...ALTHOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF GETTING BRUSHED BY ORGANIZED DEEPER
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN MOVING
EAST INTO WV/PA. ATTM ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND FAVORED THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AIR MASS STAYS MILD UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER
70S IN THE EAST.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
USED THE ENS MOS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONT
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THEN TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY THIS TIME WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW.
WILL LEAN TOWARD WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS A WESTERN TRACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CIGS/VBSYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF VALID
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR
TOWARD 00Z THU...AND WILL LIKELY BACKDOOR AS FAR SOUTH AS KDAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
DRIFTING BACK NORTH THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE WEST...THEN COME MORE FROM
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BACKDOORS DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THINK WINDS AT LYNCHBURG WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY...AND OUT OF THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT ROANOKE AND POSSIBLY DANVILLE. WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS...KBLF AND VCNTY SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z/8AM
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING BACK NORTH
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT MAY TRANSLATE INTO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT FOR KBLF/KLWB AND POINTS NORTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LCL MVFR CONDITIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AN INITIAL TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FRONT WHICH CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STORM TRACK SUGGESTS PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RECORD VALUES HAVE BEEN CORRECTED.
RECORD HIGHS FOR APRIL 2
BLACKSBURG VA...87 IN 2010
BLUEFIELD WV....87 IN 2010
DANVILLE VA.....91 IN 2010
LEWISBURG WV....86 IN 2010
LYNCHBURG WV....88 IN 1963
ROANOKE VA......88 IN 2010
RECORD HIGHS FOR APRIL 3
BLACKSBURG VA...83 IN 1963
BLUEFIELD WV....81 IN 2010
DANVILLE VA.....90 IN 1963
LEWISBURG WV....81 IN 2010
LYNCHBURG VA....89 IN 1963
ROANOKE VA......88 IN 1963
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1002 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON WILL EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
REGION...ARRIVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND RH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF IN/OH/KY. THIS ACTIVITY IS TAKING AN ALMOST
EASTERLY PATH...AND IF SURVIVES ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE EAST COAST
RIDGE...COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO OR VERY
NEAR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MID-
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z/8AM HRRR SUGGESTS SUCH A SCENARIO.
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1021 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER FLORIDA AND EXTENDED INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WAS BRINGING
MILD AIR UP FROM THE SOUTH...PROVIDING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH ABOVE SEASONAL WARMTH.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED FROM THE MASON-DIXON WESTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WAS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM PITTSBURGH TO
KANSAS CITY.
FOR TODAY OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BASK IN THE WARMTH COURTESY OF
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE SURFACE
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL INCH ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TODAY ARRIVING
ALONG OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER BY SUNSET. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO THE AREA BACKDOOR STYLE...HAVING MORE OF A SOUTHWARD
EXTENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE WINDS
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND ACCELERATING EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE COURTESY OF THE LEVEL BARRIER JET. FRONT WILL
THEN PROVIDE A PATH FOR ANY UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WHICH DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SENSIBLE TREND
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
ENHANCING THE SHOWER THREAT UPSTREAM OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THE STRENGHT OF THE RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE FELT THAT THE MODELS WERE OVERDONE WITH QPF...ALTHOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF GETTING BRUSHED BY ORGANIZED DEEPER
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN MOVING
EAST INTO WV/PA. ATTM ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND FAVORED THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AIR MASS STAYS MILD UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER
70S IN THE EAST.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
USED THE ENS MOS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONT
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THEN TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY THIS TIME WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW.
WILL LEAN TOWARD WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS A WESTERN TRACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CIGS/VBSYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF VALID
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR
TOWARD 00Z THU...AND WILL LIKELY BACKDOOR AS FAR SOUTH AS KDAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
DRIFTING BACK NORTH THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE WEST...THEN COME MORE FROM
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BACKDOORS DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THINK WINDS AT LYNCHBURG WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY...AND OUT OF THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT ROANOKE AND POSSIBLY DANVILLE. WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS...KBLF AND VCNTY SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z/8AM
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING BACK NORTH
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT MAY TRANSLATE INTO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT FOR KBLF/KLWB AND POINTS NORTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LCL MVFR CONDITIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AN INITIAL TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FRONT WHICH CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STORM TRACK SUGGESTS PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...
RECORD HIGHS FOR APRIL 2
BLACKSBURG VA...72 IN 1976
BLUEFIELD WV....71 IN 1992
DANVILLE VA.....78 IN 2006
LEWISBURG WV....73 IN 1976
LYNCHBURG WV....77 IN 1992
ROANOKE VA......80 IN 1992
RECORD HIGHS FOR APRIL 3
BLACKSBURG VA...74 IN 1992
BLUEFIELD WV....74 IN 1974
DANVILLE VA.....80 IN 1976
LEWISBURG WV....76 IN 1976
LYNCHBURG VA....81 IN 1976
ROANOKE VA......84 IN 1976
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1031 AM PDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO UNTIL THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONSIDERABLE SHOWERY AND POSSIBLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
OF ANY WEAK THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE WILL BE FRIDAY. FOLLOWING
ALL THE EXPECTED UPCOMING WEEKEND WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATES TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AS THE
SOMEWHAT COOL AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF A CAP AT 600MB PER KOTX MORNING SOUNDING, SUPPORTS THEIR
FORMATION. THAT AND A FEW RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR DEPICT SUCH A
SCENARIO BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TODAY. /PELATTI
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: MINIMUM CHANGES MADE. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST AND THICKENING A BIT, ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE, OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CUMULUS SHOULD APPEAR IN THE MIX AS WELL WITH MINOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROWN IN. REGARDLESS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. /PELATTI
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 56 34 58 39 53 35 / 20 20 0 50 40 20
COEUR D`ALENE 56 33 56 38 52 35 / 20 20 0 50 50 20
PULLMAN 52 35 57 38 53 36 / 20 20 0 50 50 20
LEWISTON 60 38 63 43 59 40 / 10 10 10 20 40 20
COLVILLE 58 32 60 37 57 34 / 20 20 10 40 50 20
SANDPOINT 51 31 58 35 50 33 / 20 20 10 50 80 30
KELLOGG 51 33 58 35 49 33 / 20 20 10 50 70 40
MOSES LAKE 63 34 61 39 61 38 / 0 0 10 20 20 10
WENATCHEE 62 38 61 40 60 40 / 0 0 10 20 10 10
OMAK 62 34 60 35 59 36 / 0 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
921 AM PDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
TO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD
TO INCREASING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUSHING OVER THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL DIFFERENT CLOUD DECKS SCATTERED
ABOUT THE AREA...WITH FOG ACROSS SOME OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COAST RANGE VALLEYS WHERE SKIES CLEARED LAST
NIGHT. THESE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY. A HIGHER STRATUS DECK
REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE CASCADES WHERE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
WAS UPDATED TO ADD A MENTION OF THIS FOR THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING THE SKY COVER IN THE SHORT TERM BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES
INCREASINGLY TURNING TO A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHALLOW PORCORN CU
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE REMAINING CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOST
MODELS AGREE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE MID/LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY
ALONG THE COAST...AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND CASCADES. THE MORNING POP GRIDS WERE SPLIT INTO 3 HOUR
SEGMENTS TO TRY AND GET AT THIS TIMING BETTER...AND THE AFTERNOON 3
HOUR SEGMENTS WERE RETAINED. MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER NEAR
PASS LEVEL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 4
INCH RANGE FOR ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD SO WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS
APPEAR UNLIKELY.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH MORE WET AND SHOWERY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS GREAT IF
YOU LIKE WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER. /NEUMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PRECIPITATION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE CASCADES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THE REMNANTS OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. FREEZING LEVEL ON THE
00Z SALEM SOUNDING WAS JUST OVER 4000 FT...WITH OBSERVATIONS AROUND
FREEZING TO ABOUT 3500 FT. THESE FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE NORTH OREGON CASCADE PASSES ARE DISSIPATING AND SHOULD BE GONE
SOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN.
FOR OTHER AREAS...A MIX OF CLEARING AND CLOUDS HANGING ON IN THE
VALLEY...AND ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BREAKS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM WEST OF
OF I-5...BUT CLOUDS ARE HANGING ON ALONG AND EAST OF I-5.
EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY ASIDE FROM SOME
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING BUT EXPECT A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS PUSHING IN ALONG WITH SOME SCRAWNY CUMULUS ONCE THE LOWER
STATUS AND FOG EASE.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OUT ALONG 140W PUSHES SE. THIS TROUGH MOVES IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL PUSH AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RELATIVELY LIGHTER
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO IMPACT
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT QPF
SHOULD REMAIN MODEST ENOUGH THAT WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS APPEAR UNLIKELY
AT THIS POINT. THE S WA CASCADES WOULD BE FAVORED WITH THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY EVENING...AS SW FLOW AIDS OROGRAPHICS.
SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PASS BY IN WNW FLOW. THEN SW FLOW
TAKES OVER WHICH WILL DRIVE A SERIES OF WARM FRONTS THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. /KMD
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
ONSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL NEAR
CASCADE PASS LEVEL...EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE AREA
MIDDAY SUNDAY. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HIT THEIR FIRST 70+ DEGREE
DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS RIDGE BRINGS SUNNY SPRING WEATHER. /27
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A FEW LOCAL SITES ACROSS THE VALLEY INCLUDING KHIO AND
KMMV WILL SEE IFR STRATUS/FOG THROUGH 18-20Z. OVERALL EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LIFT AND BREAK UP AFTER 19Z AS DRIER N FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO DOMINATE. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER 12-14Z THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 2000 TO 3000 FT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 19Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER. CULLEN/27
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER BENIGN ON COASTAL WATERS UNDER
WEAK PRES GRADIENTS THROUGH EARLY THU. WINDS REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS NEAR 6 FT AND SUBSIDING. WINDS WILL TURN S AND INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED MIDDAY THU THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN CONTINUING AT TIMES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRI OR SAT.
SEAS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD...AND WILL BE NEAR 9 TO 10 FT
FOR FRI AND SAT. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
833 AM PDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO UNTIL THE NEXT WET
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SHOWERY AND POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST THUNDER THREAT WILL BE FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Minor updates to add mention of isolated afternoon and evening
showers somewhat similar to what occurred yesterday as the
somewhat cool and slightly unstable airmass, despite the presence
of a cap at 600mb per KOTX morning sounding, supports their
formation. That and a few recent runs of the HRRR depict such a
scenario between 21Z and 03Z Today. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Expect occasional mid cloud ceilings of 9000-11000 ft
AGL across the Idaho Panhandle...Palouse and Spokane region this
morning. Though clouds will be increasing also across the Upper
Columbia Basin...any ceilings are expected to be cirrus.
Conditions will continue to remain VFR through at least Thursday
morning.bz
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 34 58 39 53 35 / 20 20 0 50 40 20
Coeur d`Alene 56 33 56 38 52 35 / 20 20 0 50 50 20
Pullman 52 35 57 38 53 36 / 20 20 0 50 50 20
Lewiston 60 38 63 43 59 40 / 10 10 10 20 40 20
Colville 58 32 60 37 57 34 / 20 20 10 40 50 20
Sandpoint 51 31 58 35 50 33 / 20 20 10 50 80 30
Kellogg 51 33 58 35 49 33 / 20 20 10 50 70 40
Moses Lake 63 34 61 39 61 38 / 0 0 10 20 20 10
Wenatchee 62 38 61 40 60 40 / 0 0 10 20 10 10
Omak 62 34 60 35 59 36 / 0 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1016 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.UPDATE...
00Z NAM AND HRRR ARE SIMILAR IN TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AROUND 9 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME IFR THEN LIFR BY AROUND SUNRISE AS A STRONG
SURFACE LOW REACHES SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY 15Z. SHOWERS WILL
PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM.
SOUTHWEST/WEST WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 30 KNOTS BEHIND
THE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR SHOULD CHANGE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO LIGHT SNOW. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI
AND SOUTHEAST WI LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WI AND STRONG
VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW TAKING ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
TILT OVER IOWA ARRIVES.
THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA...NORTH OF A LINE FROM SHEBOYGAN TO FOND DU LAC TO
GREEN LAKE TO MONTELLO. THIS WOULD BE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
PRECIP DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
FAIRLY QUICKLY. OVERALL...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF JUST
BELOW FREEZING IN THE EVENING. THEREFORE...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HANDLE ANY
BRIEF PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
WE ARE EXPECTING A LULL IN THE WINDS AND PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN WI AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT OF ITS LOCATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AT 7 AM /12Z/
FRI MORNING. MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THIS TIME WITH THE DRY SLOT
AND DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BECOME LIKELY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
KICK IN BY MID FRIDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN WI AS THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LOWS OF THIS OCCLUDING SYSTEM LIFT NORTHEAST.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER...DURING 3-HR PRESSURE FALLS OF 3 TO 5 MB. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE. AT THIS
TIME...FORECAST WINDS FALL JUST UNDER THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
WRAP-AROUND REGION OF THE DEPARTING LOW DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
SOME LINGERING WEAK MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA INTO
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE FOR -SN. MIXED
PRECIP. SHOULD HAVE CHANGED TO ALL -SN BY THIS TIME. LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY 00Z/05 SO NOT EXPECING
ACCUMULATION OVER A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. WEAK LIFT PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING...WITH DRYING COLUMN AND
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING PASSES SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL LIKELY EXPECIENCE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
UPSTREAM OVER IA/MN DUE TO APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.
MAYBE SOME -SHRA UPSTREAM OVER THIS AREA AS WELL WHILE AIRMASS OVER
SOUTHERN WI REMAINS DRY.
SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO WI BUT FURTHER
WEAKENS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHORT WAVE RIDGING NORTH OF
AMPLYING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS. FEW -SHRA MAY SPREAD
INTO WRN PORTIONS OF CWA...BUT EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE
DAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MORE SEASONAL AS WELL.
EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
- MEDIUM.
OUTLOOK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DOMINATED BY YET ANOTHER STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND EASTERN GTLAKES. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE AND ITS PRECIP SHIELD REMAINING
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN WI MON AND MON NGT. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FARTHEST
NORTH WITH ITS SOLUTION MOVING SFC LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MI. WPC
SHOWING MORE CONFIDENCE IN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS AND ECWMF
ENSEMBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW WL KEEP POPS ON THE
LOW SIDE FROM SUN NGT INTO MON NGT.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES IN INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TO THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER
APPEARS IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
ON THURSDAY. 925H TEMPS AROUND ZERO ON WED WARM TO 8 TO 10C.
GFS 5 DAY 500H MEANS SHOW MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHT ANOMOLY...CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. HENCE COULD BE
OUR FIRST PERIOD OF EXTENDED SEASONAL TO MILD CONDITIONS.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...BRISK AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WI AROUND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCT
TSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING. THEN CIGS OF 400-900 FEET AND
VSBYS OF 3-5SM ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LOWER VSBYS OF 1-2SM ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING WHEN PRIMARILY
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY MID FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN SWITCH OVER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN AND THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE INTO SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY
THROUGH THE EVENING. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
MARINE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
WAVES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THEN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT THE NORTHWEST
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1257 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO REDUCE/DELAY THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 02.12Z NAM
BULLISH ON THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS
SOME MAJOR DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER WI AT THIS TIME WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. NAM HAS NEARLY DOUBLE THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AS THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS...AND THE 02.12Z GFS EVEN
LESS THAN RAP. WILL NEED TO GET FORCING OF THE STRENGTH OF THE
NAM TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVEL AIR MASS IN DRY EASTERLY FLOW...JUST
DONT BELIEVE THE NAM INTENSITY IS ON TARGET.
NO CHANGES TO BE MADE TO WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. ICING
AND SLEET BAND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA SEEMS LIKE IT
COULD PRODUCE MORE IMPACT PER LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOCUS THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO STRONG STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
BRINING HEAVY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF THE AREA.
POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY PULLING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE 285-305 K SURFACES. THE LIFT
ISN/T STRONG BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
SOLUTION TONIGHT PRODUCING A BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
CONFINE PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS. IF
FORECAST MODELS TREND TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTIONS. WILL HOLD OF ON AN ADVISORY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OCCURRING TONIGHT. IF IT DOES DEVELOP...A
GLAZING OF ICE WOULD BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK
INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY WITH THE 500 MB LOW TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM IS
DRAWING ABUNDANT WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION WITH A STRONG
WARM LAYER ADVECTING NORTHWARD. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START
OFF AS RAIN...BUT THEN COLDER AIR WILL START MOVING ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OR
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW OVER THESE AREAS. ANY DEVIATION ON THE THE LOW
TRACK WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN WELL INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MAKING A SWITCH OVER SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS TO AROUND 1/2 INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS ALONG WITH SLEET AND POSSIBLY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6
TO 8 INCHES. LOCATIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOK TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND 1/2 INCH. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDER SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BECOME VERY
INTENSE THURSDAY NIGHT. A VERY IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS
CIRCULATION NOTED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS LOW WITH NEGATIVE
EPV LOCATED JUST ABOVE THIS CIRCULATION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HEAVY
SNOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE BATTLING THE
WARM LAYER FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS INTO THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
SATURDAY. A RATHER NICE WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH
SUNNY SKIES EXPECT ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A FEW WEAK TROUGHS
LOOK TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
VFR PERIOD THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WILL
BRING A DOWNWARD TREND TO CIGS/VSBYS. WHILE THE TAFS HAVE -SHRA
FOR THE EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...THIS COULD BE A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE AND AIR TEMPERATURES AT THAT TIME. A
DRIZZLY DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT...A FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY FOR THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER
AT DODGE.
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM FOR THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY ACROSS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI.
SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRECIPITATION WILL GO FROM A WINTRY MIX TO
RAIN. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME RISES ON RIVER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI COULD OCCUR. THAT
SAID...THE STORM TRACK IS NOT CERTAIN AS THIS TIME...AND ANY
CHANGES WILL SHIFT WHERE THE RAIN-SNOW LINE LIES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-095.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
MAIN FORECAST DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER
SCENARIO. THIS RESULTS IN DELAYING ANY MVFR VISIBILITIES TO PAST
12Z...AND KEEPING THE CEILINGS MOSTLY VFR. PERHAPS TOWARDS 09Z
TONIGHT RST WILL DEVELOP A MVFR CEILING.
EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS NORTH.
CURRENTLY HAVE 10-15 KT...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20 KT OR SO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT...A FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY FOR THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER
AT DODGE.
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM FOR THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY ACROSS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI.
SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRECIPITATION WILL GO FROM A WINTRY MIX TO
RAIN. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME RISES ON RIVER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI COULD OCCUR. THAT
SAID...THE STORM TRACK IS NOT CERTAIN AS THIS TIME...AND ANY
CHANGES WILL SHIFT WHERE THE RAIN-SNOW LINE LIES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-095.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN...PERHAPS STARTING A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE
ONSET EARLY...ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THE STORM PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS EARLY
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN DRY WEATHER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED SOME POSSIBLE RAIN WORKING INTO
SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING LIGHT
RAIN HAD STARTED AT WHITE PLAINS BUT NOT RAIN AT KPOU YET. DBZ
VALUES WERE OVER 20 INTO SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY SO SUSPECT SOME
RAIN WAS FALLING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS RAIN
CHANCES...INCREASING TO LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAWN...MUCH LOWER VALUES (BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE THRESHOLD) CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD. FOR NOW...LEFT THIS ALONE ALTHOUGH WE FOLLOW
TRENDS ON THE RADAR. THE HRRR INDICATED NO RAIN SHOULD FALL NORTH OF
HUDSON THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE ONLY WE DID WAS ACTUALLY RAISE A FEW TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT PER THICKENING CIRRUS CLOUDS. GLENS FALLS ACTUALLY SAW A
TEMPERATURE RISE IN THE PAST HOUR (FROM 34 TO 35) INDICATIVE OF
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED STRETCHED FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY START
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA
LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACK PARK....UPPER 20S LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...LOWER 30S NORTHERN CATSKILLS CAPITAL REGION
EAST TO THE BERKSHIRES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD....A STEADY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN...AND
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTN FOR THE RAIN TO BEGIN IN THE CAPITAL
REGION AND POINTS NORTHWARD. MAX TEMPS LOOK COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE IN EVENING HOURS...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
AT 850 HPA OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
TOWARDS LAKE HURON. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE NYC AREA...ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT.
STEADY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT TO SHOWERS. WITH THE SECONDARY LOW STARTING TO
DEVELOP...SOME COLDER AIR MAY WORK IN...BOTH ALOFT AND AT LOW
LEVELS...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SRN GREENS AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SNOW BEFORE ENDING. ANY SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS VERY
MINIMAL...AND WILL BE ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL WILL STILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHC WILL BE IN THE MORNING...AND ACROSS
NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS. A GUSTY W-SW BREEZE LOOKS TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL
BEGIN CLOUDY EVERYWHERE...SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE BY
AFTN...ESP FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW TO MID
50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR
OUT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH 20S FOR MOST AREAS...AND A CONTINUED GUSTY BREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY ANS THEN MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME EXPECT ANY PCPN TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY PM INTO THURSDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
AT H5 WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE ECMWF/GFS/AND GGEM ALL HAVE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AT
THE SURFACE WITH THE GGEM THE FASTEST AND THE GFS THE SLOWEST. BY
TUESDAY MORNING THE GGEM TAKES THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
WITH THE THE ECMWF HAVING TO LOW NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE GFS
HAVING THE LOW NEAR BUFFALO. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE GFS TAKES THE
SURFACE LOW RIGHT OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE ECMWF TAKING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR QUEBEC CITY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE IMPROVING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA.
HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS IN TERMS OF IMPACT ACROSS OUR REGION.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AS THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IMPACT THE REGION. DRIER
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN FLATTENS OUT ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY. HIGH ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER
50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KABL/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
UNTIL EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION. BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z SATURDAY
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MAINLY IFR AS RAIN BECOMES HEAVIER AND CIGS
LOWER.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MIOD/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND
LOWER AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A KPOU WHERE -RA WILL FALL FOR A FEW
HOURS AS A WEAK WAVE WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITHTHE -RA CONDITIONS AT KPOU
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY MID OR LATE
MORNING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSER
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH IN THE FORECAST...BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.
GRADUALLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT ALL THE TAF SITES ON
FRIDAY...GENERALLY AT 8 TO 10 KTS...BUT AT KALB WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 12 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL HELP KEEP FUELS RATHER SATURATED.
MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE FORESTED AND IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IN PLACE. WHILE DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...AND
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...AND END BY SATURDAY MORNING. QPF
LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ONE THIRD AND TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS WILL
CAUSE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE
NERFC IS NOT FORECASTING ANY RIVER FLOODING AND THE LATEST MMEFS
GUIDANCE DOESN/T SUGGEST RIVER FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS
UPCOMING EVENT. HOWEVER...IF QPF WERE TO INCREASE...MINOR FLOODING
COULD BE AN ISSUE...SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1240 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN...PERHAPS STARTING A LITTLE WINTRY MIX ON THE
ONSET EARLY...ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THE STORM PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS EARLY
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN DRY WEATHER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED SOME POSSIBLE RAIN WORKING INTO
SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING LIGHT
RAIN HAD STARTED AT WHITE PLAINS BUT NOT RAIN AT KPOU YET. DBZ
VALUES WERE OVER 20 INTO SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY SO SUSPECT SOME
RAIN WAS FALLING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS RAIN
CHANCES...INCREASING TO LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY THROUGH
DAWN...MUCH LOWER VALUES (BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE THRESHOLD) CAPITAL
REGION NORTHWARD. FOR NOW...LEFT THIS ALONE ALTHOUGH WE FOLLOW
TRENDS ON THE RADAR. THE HRRR INDICATED NO RAIN SHOULD FALL NORTH OF
HUDSON THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THE ONLY WE DID WAS ACTUALLY RAISE A FEW TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT PER THICKENING CIRRUS CLOUDS. GLENS FALLS ACTUALLY SAW A
TEMPERATURE RISE IN THE PAST HOUR (FROM 34 TO 35) INDICATIVE OF
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED STRETCHED FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY START
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA
LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACK PARK....UPPER 20S LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...LOWER 30S NORTHERN CATSKILLS CAPITAL REGION
EAST TO THE BERKSHIRES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD....A STEADY LIGHT
RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE ENTIRE COLUMN...AND
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE AFTN FOR THE RAIN TO BEGIN IN THE CAPITAL
REGION AND POINTS NORTHWARD. MAX TEMPS LOOK COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE IN EVENING HOURS...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
AT 850 HPA OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
TOWARDS LAKE HURON. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE NYC AREA...ALONG THE STORM/S TRIPLE POINT.
STEADY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT TO SHOWERS. WITH THE SECONDARY LOW STARTING TO
DEVELOP...SOME COLDER AIR MAY WORK IN...BOTH ALOFT AND AT LOW
LEVELS...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SRN GREENS AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR SNOW BEFORE ENDING. ANY SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS VERY
MINIMAL...AND WILL BE ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE STORM/S OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL WILL STILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN OR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHC WILL BE IN THE MORNING...AND ACROSS
NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS. A GUSTY W-SW BREEZE LOOKS TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL
BEGIN CLOUDY EVERYWHERE...SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE BY
AFTN...ESP FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW TO MID
50S IN THE CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR
OUT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH 20S FOR MOST AREAS...AND A CONTINUED GUSTY BREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY ANS THEN MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME EXPECT ANY PCPN TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY PM INTO THURSDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
AT H5 WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE ECMWF/GFS/AND GGEM ALL HAVE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AT
THE SURFACE WITH THE GGEM THE FASTEST AND THE GFS THE SLOWEST. BY
TUESDAY MORNING THE GGEM TAKES THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
WITH THE THE ECMWF HAVING TO LOW NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE GFS
HAVING THE LOW NEAR BUFFALO. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE GFS TAKES THE
SURFACE LOW RIGHT OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE ECMWF TAKING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR QUEBEC CITY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE IMPROVING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS
NOVA SCOTIA.
HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS IN TERMS OF IMPACT ACROSS OUR REGION.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AS THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IMPACT THE REGION. DRIER
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN FLATTENS OUT ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY. HIGH ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER
50S SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
20S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RAIN SHOWERS
OCCURRING AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z
SATURDAY.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND
EVENTUALLY START TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
AND THICKEN WITH TIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH OVERCAST MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BY 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS AFTER 12Z AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AT 8-12
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AT KALB TO 22 KTS AFT 19Z FRI.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS RECENT
HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL HELP KEEP FUELS RATHER SATURATED.
MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE FORESTED AND IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IN PLACE. WHILE DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...AND
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...AND END BY SATURDAY MORNING. QPF
LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ONE THIRD AND TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS WILL
CAUSE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE
NERFC IS NOT FORECASTING ANY RIVER FLOODING AND THE LATEST MMEFS
GUIDANCE DOESN/T SUGGEST RIVER FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS
UPCOMING EVENT. HOWEVER...IF QPF WERE TO INCREASE...MINOR FLOODING
COULD BE AN ISSUE...SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
403 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO
SEA TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...
KEEPING PRECIP WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA TODAY. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH. DID NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY GIVEN WARM LAKE
WATERS AND SHORT FETCH WITH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
RUC/GFS AND NAM ALL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GIVEN MOS
BIAS FOR THE PAST FEW DAY...WILL TREND AFTERNOON HIGHS UPWARD...
MORE IN LINE WITH THE RUC MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ONCE AGAIN.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA IT
WILL BE WEAKENING AND WITH NO ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING...
EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE LIMITED. RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT
WILL ALSO RESTRICTED WITH PWAT VALUES QUICKLY PEAKING AROUND 1.3
INCHES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. STILL EXPECT
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH AREAS SEEING
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE UP TO HALF AN INCH. KEPT LOWS
IN THE MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/NORTHERN FL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL REORIENT SATURDAY EVENING AND BEGIN WORKING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HOWEVER
DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BEGINNING IN THE CSRA
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACHING LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE AND RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES INLAND AND THROUGH WESTERN MS WITH A SWATH OF MOISTURE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL
BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND FINALLY EXITS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL WILL KEEP
WINDS UP EARLY THIS MORNING PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION. SCATTERED
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY
LATE THIS MORNING/NOON...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
THEREFORE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SHOWERS IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE IN THE 00Z WEST TO 04Z EASTERN CWA. ANY
SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO THE REGION COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL MONITOR PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SECOND SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA BY
EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL EXIST FOR PRECIPITATION AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
155 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FORECAST.
FOR TONIGHT...THICKENING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP INHIBIT GOOD RADIATION AL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE
RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE
TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP OFF.
FOR FRIDAY...THE HIGH RESO MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCALLY RUN
WRF ARE SLOWING DOWN THE APPROACHING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A
FROPA TOMORROW. THE HRRR IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE WRF...AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF RUNS FROM EARLIER. HAVE TRIED
TO TAKE A BLEND..BUT LEANED PRETTY HEAVILY TOWARDS A HRRR AND SREF
BLEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FRONT PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. AS FOR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATTENDANT FRONT TRAILING DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA...WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT KIND OF BREAKING OFF
FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...STALLING ACROSS SOUTH
GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...TEMPORARILY...ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BEFORE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN A HYBRID
DAMMING EVENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BUT BACK TO THE
SHORT TERM...
SHOULD SEE A QLCS ONGOING OVERNIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEW
HIRES GUIDANCE IS DELAYING START OF THE CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA UNTIL AFTER 12Z...SO DELAYED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER EXTREME NORTHWEST BEFORE 12Z. AFTER
THAT...LOOKS LIKE THE QLCS WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST...
WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE QLCS. BEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE WOULD OF COURSE BE WITH THE QLCS ITSELF. SPC
CONTINUES DAY2 SLIGHT RISK FOR NORTH GEORGIA...WITH GFS BEING A
LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH SEVERE PARAMETERS THAN NAM. AT 12Z...GFS
HAS 100-200 J/KG MLCAPE COLLOCATED WITH 50-60KT 0-6KM SHEAR AND
AROUND 30KT 0-1KM SHEAR ALL NOSING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA. BY 18Z...
MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM ATLANTA NORTHWEST WITH AROUND 50KT
0-6KM SHEAR AND 25-30KT 0-1KM SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MOVES OUT AFTER
THAT POINT WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINING IN NORTH GEORGIA CLOSER
TO THE UPPER WAVE AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAX CAPE VALUES
DECREASING AS IT SPREADS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA TOWARD 00Z. SO WITH
ALL THAT...MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS BUT ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH GEORGIA WITH THAT AMOUNT OF SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. GFS SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER AT 18Z
MAXES OUT IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA WITH VALUES OVER 3. NAM AGAIN NOT SO
IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY SPOTTY AREAS OF STP OVER 1. A LARGE AREA OF
SHERB /PARAMETER FOR HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE CONVECTION/ GREATER THAN 1
/CRITICAL THRESHOLD...LIKE STP/ PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
TOMORROW AS WELL.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WITH
QPF VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. AS ALWAYS LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS. THE SYSTEM
COMING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS TOMORROW SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...BUT SIMILAR HIGHS
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS
NOTICEABLY COOLER FROM ATLANTA NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
TDP
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS SHOW NO FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES FROM RECENT
PREVIOUS RUNS. ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS AT
THIS TIME IS MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
20
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE STATE DURING THE SHORT TERM IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM AND MOVE INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM AS ITS EXITING THE AREA...
BUT THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVERALL SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING TREND.
THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY AND A WEDGE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN
THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY...THE RAIN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. NEXT SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...AS THEY BOTH TRACK IT NORTH OF GEORGIA...BUT
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM RETURNS ON SUNDAY...MORE ACTIVE TIME PERIOD APPEARS TO BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THUS FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY UP TO 250 J/KG
OF MUCAPE SHOWN IN THE GFS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE THOUGH WITH 40 TO 50KTS AT 12Z MONDAY WHILE THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ALSO STRONG...HOWEVER THE LOW CAPE VALUES WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY..THE INSTABILITY INCREASES
TO AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH AROUND 35KTS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. COULD SEE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO SOME
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT COULD REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
11
AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AROUND 09Z AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z. COLD FRONT APPROACHING NW GA BY 18Z AND THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING OVER THE AREA AFTER 14Z
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 10 TO 15KT WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS AFTER SUNRISE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AND TIMING OF PRECIP. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 57 78 51 70 / 5 60 40 10
ATLANTA 60 75 51 68 / 10 70 40 10
BLAIRSVILLE 55 70 44 65 / 20 90 40 5
CARTERSVILLE 59 74 46 66 / 20 80 40 10
COLUMBUS 61 78 55 71 / 5 60 50 20
GAINESVILLE 58 72 49 69 / 20 80 50 10
MACON 57 80 55 74 / 5 40 40 20
ROME 59 75 46 67 / 30 90 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 55 76 50 69 / 10 60 40 10
VIDALIA 59 83 62 75 / 5 10 30 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO
TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING
UPSTREAM...WITH THE KENTUCKY MESONET REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LATEST MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS SHOW
THIS LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM...AND LIKELY
EXITING THE EAST BY AROUND NOON TIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS
UPSTREAM AND THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS LINE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STAY UNDER SEVERE
LIMITS AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING UP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS...AS AN
850 MB JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTIVE
LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WITH PEAK WINDS
GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS
TODAY...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AT LEAST DELAY ANY RECEDING THAN CAN
TAKE PLACE.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE
30S...DEPENDING ON CLEARING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO
THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...FINALLY
REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE
MID TERM...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
STAY NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHTS
TEMPS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWARD...TRAVERSING
THROUGH KY SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT A VERY STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO
PULL IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON
SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE AN
IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT ONCE THE PRECIP GETS
GOING...SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AT
ONSET...AND THEN A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. IF ANY OF
THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR
THUNDERSTORM...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HIGH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE.
THE ONLY INHIBITOR RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE
DURING THIS SYSTEM...INHIBITING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS IS
LOOKING TO BE A PRIMARILY FAST MOVING...WIND PRODUCING...RAIN EVENT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT JUST NE OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO
GAIN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...SOME DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT. BUT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE
REGION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE POPS TO
RETURN/CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...AS THE GEM AND GFS HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 18Z TUESDAY...AND THE
NAM THOUGH SHOWING SOME QPF...IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN
NATURE. EITHER WAY...DRYING OR NO DRYING...ANOTHER SWING OF MOISTURE
IS GOING TO BE ENTERING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE KY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE TROUGH AT
THIS POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR POPS IN THIS PERIOD...AS ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OR
STRENGTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SET UP OF THIS PRECIP.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH KY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
HOLD ONCE MORE. IT IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
SOME DECENT FOGGING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE GETS TRAPPED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORN. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN
10 AND 15Z. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE...WITH
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO IFR/MVFR. ONCE THE INITIAL
LINE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS...BEFORE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ENGAGE BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTION. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH
BY EARLY EVENING...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LINE OF STORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.AVIATION...CEILINGS FROM STRATUS AND VIS FROM FOG AND HAZE WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BECOME COMMON WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING FRI MORNING WITH S WINDS BECOMING N.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND STORMS WILL BECOME SCT TO NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING. LOW CEILINGS AND VIS WILL CREATE IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT DURING EARLY TO MID FRIDAY
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT EVERY TERMINAL BY MID DAY
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BECOME NW TO NORTH DURING FRIDAY MORNING
AROUND SUNRISE TO MID MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF JUST
EMERGING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE TO THE SOUTH...A
PACIFIC JET WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BAJA AND NORTHERN MX. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...A 30-40KT LLJ CONTINUES ACROSS EAST TX/WRN LA PER
AREA VWPS.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AND INTO THE NE GOMEX. TO THE WEST...A SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER ERN
KS...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT THROUGH ERN OK INTO NORTHERN TX.
LIFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AS REGION FALLS
UNDERNEATH THE DIFLUENT REGION BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF
PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ROUGHLY COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR THE 12HR PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON TOMORROW.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE INDICATIONS THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY
DEPICTED BY THE RUC AND HRRR MAY BE STARTING...WITH SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED ECHOES STARTING TO APPEAR ON REGIONAL RADARS. THIS DOES
LEND A LITTLE CREDENCE TO NAM/RUC FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOWED
EROSION OF THE CINH SEEN IN EARLIER RAOBS AROUND THIS TIME. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. IN ANY
EVENT...THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE KEPT SEVERE WORDING IN THE FCST
FOR TONIGHT...AND EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR ACADIANA. THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE POP FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY
TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE ONLY A
SHORT REPRIEVE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FCST TO BEGIN SATURDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER...MORE SOUTHERN TRACKED...UPPER TROF. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
SE TX COAST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS LOUISIANA...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY PULL A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE APPEAR POSSIBLE
FOR A TWO DAY TOTAL...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
RISK SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE MEAN TROF WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS MILD BUT OTHERWISE BENIGN WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WED...THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A
MODERATING TREND BEGINNING THURSDAY.
MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL GULF WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY SEA FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO AND THEN STALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME FOR THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW AFFECTS
THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 67 79 56 68 56 / 60 40 10 60 60
KBPT 68 78 57 68 58 / 60 30 10 60 50
KAEX 66 76 51 68 53 / 80 30 10 40 70
KLFT 68 81 57 69 58 / 60 60 20 60 70
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALL IS QUIET TO BEGIN THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SETTLED
BETWEEN AN ACTIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND
ONGOING AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF INTEREST IS PRESENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN BARREN OF ANY ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES SHOW SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE ALONG A
LINE FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO FORT WAYNE AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING AS
ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE. BUT SO FAR THE
00Z NWP HAVE GIVEN FAR TOO MUCH RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY
WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER GRASP
ON THE SITUATION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE WITH THE LATTER GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNINSPIRING APPEARANCE ON RADAR. THUS, TRIMMED POPS BACK IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR LOW COVERAGE THROUGH 15Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY SEE A GLANCING BLOW AS
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD.
EXPANSION OF COVERAGE IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV
ANOMALY OVER MISSOURI WRAP INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING WILL BE AT THEIR GREATEST. HOWEVER,
ALL LOCATIONS CAN STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF 1.2+" PWATS.
SUPERPOSITION OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT AROUND 18Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THAT
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL EXIST, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN
ISOLATED AT BEST.
GOOD SIGNATURE IN THE HIGH RES MODELS OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, INDICATIVE OF AN AGGRESSIVE MASS
ADJUSTMENT TAKING PLACE. WHEN CONSIDERED ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND TIMING DURING PEAK HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO
MAXIMIZED MIXING DEPTHS, ADVISORY OR NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS
CERTAINLY SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL FROPA. THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE
APPRECIABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS
SOUTH. LIKEWISE, LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE A BIT OF A DELAY
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER WINDS FOR THIS REASON. COLD ADVECTION
WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
WINDS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 KTS BEING TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BY STRONG
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT FROM 275-285K.
ALL SURFACES WITHIN THIS 10K DEEP LAYER INTERSECT THE GROUND AND
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND COMPONENT TO
HELP MAXIMIZE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE STRONG WIND FIELD. COMBINED
WITH NAM PROGS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING WITHIN
THE MIXED LAYER IN SPITE OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP MIXING, A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS LIKE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION FOR AT LEAST THE 21-03Z PERIOD.
SAID ADVISORY WAS THEREFORE ISSUED BEGINNING WITH THE INITIAL FROPA
AND LASTING UNTIL COLD ADVECTION EASES AROUND MIDNIGHT.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEPART INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY AS LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC ADVANCING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TRAPPED UNDER A DEEP INVERSION SHOULD EQUATE TO
AMPLE CLOUD COVER SAT MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING TREND SAT AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN
WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS INTO THE 40S DESPITE A RATHER CHILLY START
TO THE DAY. A LINGERING NW GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER CAUSE RATHER BRISK
NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD SAT
NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT MINS
DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF SE MI. SOME MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS BY SUNDAY SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
SHOWN BY THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE...FEATURING A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WRN US AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTL AND
ERN US. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS
FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION SUNDAY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THERE ACTUALLY REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW
WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OVERSPREADS SE MI MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY NIGHT.
SEEING AS THIS SYSTEM WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GULF...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE DEFORMATION REGION AND THUS
HIGH POPS ARE JUSTIFIED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL HOLD WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN PRECIP TYPE AS ALL RAIN. THE GFS
DEEPENS THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
AND THUS HOLDS THE DEFORMATION FORCING OVER SE MI RIGHT INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS SOLUTIONS DOES OFFER THE POSSIBILITY THAT COOLING DUE
TO MELTING FROM PROLONGED PRECIP MAY CHANCE SOME LOCALS OVER TO SNOW
LATE MON NIGHT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS...SUPPORTING ALL RAIN AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN US
LONG WAVE RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL HOWEVER OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR
REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING TO NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM
AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ICY WATERS OF THE LAKES WILL INHIBIT THESE
STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE LAKE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTH OF THUNDER BAY WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND THUS MAKE SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
18Z. WINDS OVER LAKE HURON WILL THEN DECREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE SFC HIGH TRACKS OVERHEAD. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN LEAD TO A SHARP
INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THESE STRONGER WINDS...EXPECTED TO EXCEED
GALE FORCE AT TIMES...WILL FIRST REACH WRN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST
CLAIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER LAKE
HURON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON INTO SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1205 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
//DISCUSSION...
LOWER CEILING WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS AGAINST DRY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. IFR CEILING WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO DTW AT PRESS TIME TO GO WITH THAT IN THE FORECAST
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF ISSUANCE TIME. THE LOWER CEILING WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH FROM THERE AND VISIBILITY WILL FOLLOW
DOWNWARD AS RAIN INCREASES OVER THE REGION CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AT
THIS POINT, THUNDER IS MORE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A SOLID AREA OF RAIN FILLS IN
OVER SE MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AS RAIN COMBINES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WHICH WILL POINT TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND POST FRONT THAT WILL
HAVE GUST POTENTIAL TO 40 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5 KFT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS FROM
240 DEG FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-
MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
MIZ083...FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 4
PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON
INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
423 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SFC LOW AT 3 AM WAS CENTERED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND WILL CONTINUE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...ENDING UP OVER NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS
EVENING. UPPER LOW TRAILS THE SFC LOW BACK ACROSS CENTRAL IA. AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW...SAW A STRONG DRY SLOT AND PV ANOMALY WORK UP INTO
SRN MN OVER TO WRN WI. THIS PV FEATURE HELPED ENHANCE FGEN IN THE
H7-H6 LAYER...WHICH RESULTED IN AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP
LAST NIGHT FROM ABOUT SPRINGFIELD...THROUGH CENTRAL MCLEOD
COUNTY...UP THE HENNEPIN/WRIGHT COUNTY LINE AND ON UP TOWARD
PRINCETON. WE GOT A REPORT OF 10 INCHES ALREADY FROM HUTCHINSON AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOMEONE IN THIS BAND PICKED UP A FOOT
OVERNIGHT. OVERLAYING RAP H7-H6 FGEN ON TO RADAR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...YOU COULD SEE THIS BAND START TO WEAKEN AROUND 8Z AS THE
FGEN STARTED TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...AS THIS AREA OF FGEN WAS
WEAKENING...THE RAP HAS BEEN SHOWING ANOTHER BAND OF ENHANCED FGEN
IN THE H7-H6 LAYER DEVELOPING FROM ALBERT LEA UP TOWARD RICE LAKE.
SINCE 3 AM...THIS SECOND ZONE OF FGEN HAS SHOWN RADAR RETURNS/SNOW
RAPIDLY BLOSSOM AND TRIED TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THE RAP/HRRR WITH A
SECONDARY BAND OF ENHANCED QPF SNOW COMING OUT OF SE MN AND UP ALONG
THE MN/WI BORDER. FOR THIS NEWER BAND OF SNOW...WITH THE SFC LOW NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE IT WILL NOT LINGER AS LONG
AS THE MAIN BAND OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD STILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IT.
MAIN CHANGE IN THE GRIDS WITH POPS WAS TO SPEED UP THEIR DEPARTURE
OUT OF THE AREA...BRINGING IT IN LINE WITH THE HRRR/RAP. EXPECT BACK
EDGE OF SNOW TO CLEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AND WILL
EXIT THE ERN CWA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. FOR THE EXISTING WINTER
HEADLINES...CHANGED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED ENDING OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH AREAS WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES NOW EXPIRING
AT 15Z...COUNTIES AROUND THE METRO ENDING AT 18Z AND WRN WI STILL
ENDING AT 00Z. IN ALL CASES...THIS IS PROBABLY STILL A LITTLE LONGER
THAN NECESSARY...BUT WE CAN JUST CANCEL COUNTIES EARLY AS SNOW ENDS
AS WE HAVE BEEN DOING ALL NIGHT. THESE NEW END TIMES JUST GET THE
END TIMES FOR THE HEADLINES CLOSER TO WHAT REALITY WILL LIKELY BE.
OTHER MINOR CHANGE MADE IN THE GRIDS WAS TO NUDGE WINDS SPEEDS/GUSTS
DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS OUR GRIDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT
STRONG ALL NIGHT. JUST BROUGHT SPEEDS MORE IN LINE WITH BIAS
CORRECTED SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS. STILL SHOULD GET SOME
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH IN SC/SE MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS IN SRN WI. FORTUNATELY...WET/HEAVY OF NATURE OF THE SNOW
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP HOLD IT TO THE GROUND...SO CONTINUED TO NOT
MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS.
PERHAPS BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS WITH CLOUD
COVER TRENDS. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING THINGS OUT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A QUICK LOOK AT SATELLITE
THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID BANK OF STRATUS IN PLACE ALL THE WAY BACK
TO THE AXIS OF THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. SO FOR
GRIDS...WENT CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH CLEARING OF
SKIES TODAY...DELAYING THAT UNTIL THE SFC RIDGE STARTS MOVING INTO
WRN MN AND KICKING OUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE CLEARING STARTS...IT SHOULD MOVE PRETTY QUICK TONIGHT. WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND...CONTINUED
TO GO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CWA
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WERE KEPT TO THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN FA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN EXPANDED CWA
WIDE FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG EVENT
WITH ONLY MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN PASSING TO THE EAST DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH LOWS/HIGHS ACTUALLY
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. WEDNESDAY WAS A DAY OF INTEREST WITH
BOTH THE EC AND GFS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 12
DEG C ACROSS WESTERN MN. MIX DOWN OF THE GFS FROM 900MB INDICATED
HIGHS NEAR 70 FOR THE CANBY AND MADISON AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MN.
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES YIELDED AN UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE MID/LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES OVER THE CR EXTEND
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...TIME OVERNIGHT WAS SPENT HELPING THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER WITH THE ONGOING SNOW EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SNOW STILL TRENDING AS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SNOW
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR MIXING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
COULD GET A LITTLE -FZDZ OR LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING AS THE
SNOW LOSES INTENSITY AND REFOCUSES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
KMSP...
SNOW RATES WILL IMPROVE NEAR THE MORNING RUSH...BUT THERE IS STILL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFT CONDITIONS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AS
THE SNOW BECOMES LIGHTER THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO MIX IN AS WELL THIS MORNING. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
FOR LIFTING CEILINGS BY THE EVENING RUSH TODAY. THE MORNING
COMMUTE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED...HOWEVER...AT LEAST THE
SNOW RATES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN EARLY TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-RASN. WINDS SW 5-10KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR/-RA. WINDS N 10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ052-
053-060>063-068>070-076-077.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ049.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ044-045-
050-051-058-059-065>067-073>075-082-083-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ084-
085-092-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ078.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ014>016-
023>025-027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ026-
028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
257 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO SET UP OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING...MAINLY
FROM BAKER SOUTHWARD TO ALZADA. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BREAKING
UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
MOVES. HRRR ALSO INDICATING FOG TO BREAK UP BY 15Z. WEAK GAP FLOW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA. SURFACE
TROUGH JUST WEST OF BILLINGS IS CAUSING PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF
LIVINGSTON WHILE WEAK PRESSURE RISES WERE NOTED OVER YELLOWSTONE
PARK. THIS IS ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH IN LIVINGSTON.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES CYCLONIC. THIS FLOW
WILL ALLOW SEVERAL MORE WAVES TO DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
SHORT WAVE TOMORROW WILL BE MORE VIGOROUS THAN TODAYS WAVE AND
HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY. WAVE WILL BE FAST MOVING AND ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/S RUNS...THE MODELS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN UNTIL WED. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED WILL
FEATURE UNSETTLED PERIODS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON SUN
THROUGH EARLY MON...A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. BASED ON THE CAPE FORECASTS...THIS WAVE
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A CHANCE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL WAIT TIL THIS PERIOD GETS
CLOSER BEFORE ADDING ANY THUNDER. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BASED ON MIXING TO
700 MB ON TUE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 70 DEGREES IN
MANY AREAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE TOWARD
THE AREA ON WED...BUT THE ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE GFS DELAYED
THE FRONT UNTIL WED NIGHT. BASED ON THIS TIMING UNCERTAINTY...WENT
WITH A MIX OF THE CONSALL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO UNCERTAIN FOR WED SO WENT WITH A GUIDANCE
COMPROMISE FOR THOSE AS WELL. FOR THU INTO FRI...THE ECMWF TRIED
TO REBUILD A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAD AN UNSETTLED W
TO NW FLOW. GIVEN THIS CONTINUED PATTERN UNCERTAINTY...WENT WITH
MODEL COMPROMISES FOR THE FORECAST. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG AND STRATUS WILL AFFECT
AREAS E AND SE OF KMLS...INCLUDING THE KBHK AREA...THROUGH 15Z
THIS MORNING. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMLS AS WELL...BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DENSE AS THE FOG FURTHER E. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD E TO A RED LODGE TO
KBIL TO FORSYTH LINE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN SNOW SHOWERS MIX
WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER
THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
NE BIG HORNS WILL HAVE LOCALIZED OBSCURATION LATE TONIGHT. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 035/053 035/052 035/058 038/070 043/066 040/060
0/B 22/W 34/W 32/W 01/U 01/B 21/B
LVM 055 034/050 034/049 033/054 036/064 040/064 038/058
2/W 32/W 36/W 22/W 01/N 12/W 22/W
HDN 055 030/054 031/055 034/060 034/071 039/068 038/060
0/B 12/W 34/W 32/W 01/B 02/W 21/B
MLS 054 031/055 032/054 033/056 033/070 041/068 038/058
0/B 12/W 23/W 22/W 01/B 01/U 21/B
4BQ 053 030/055 031/055 032/056 032/070 038/067 036/058
0/U 02/W 33/W 32/W 01/B 11/U 21/B
BHK 048 029/054 030/055 031/052 030/066 039/065 036/055
0/F 11/B 23/W 22/W 01/B 01/U 21/B
SHR 054 028/052 030/052 031/054 032/067 037/066 036/058
0/B 02/W 33/W 32/W 01/B 11/U 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
347 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
AT 07Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER IOWA. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALSO...COULD SEE A
GOOD SWATH OF DRY AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
WAS RIGHT OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. RIDGING
WAS SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...WHILE AN ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SITUATED FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THROUGH
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. MOVED ONTO THE WEST COAST. DOWN AT THE
SURFACE...THE LOW WAS WELL TO THE EAST...CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS
WHILE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAVE
LOTS OF DRY AIR...MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...WHICH HAS LED TO QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TODAY...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD. WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST...BY 00Z SATURDAY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE TURNED TO THE SOUTH.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE REGION...AND RIDGING BUILDS IN...THE COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
BE DISPLACED BY WARMER AIR. AT 12Z...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA /0C TO -8C/...BUT BY 00Z
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL WILL WARM BY ABOUT 6 DEGREES.
WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE THE STRATUS LAYER...THE STRONG
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO WARM THE SURFACE UP AND MIX OUT THE
STRATUS SO SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER GONE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S AND 50S TODAY. STILL BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARMER THAN
MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK.
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL DIG DOWN INTO ARIZONA. THERE WILL BE WEAK LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP TO TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING AND THUS KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR. FORECAST LOWS ARE CURRENTLY RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT
THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
MISS RVR VALLEY. MODELS BRING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...SO EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO BE INCREASING AND
SEASONAL HIGHS AROUND 60.
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH ONTO THE PLAINS WEATHER GETS MORE
COMPLEX. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS IS CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO STILL GETTING IRONED
OUT. THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT AN OUTLIER WITH A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
TRACK OF THE LOW. NORMALLY WOULD PUT LESS WEIGHT IN
THIS...HOWEVER THE NAM DID BETTER WITH THE LOW AND ESPECIALLY
WITH THE MOISTURE WITH THE WRAP AROUND OF THIS LAST EVENT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK HEAT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLD THUNDER. AGAIN THE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION SO WE MAY
NOT HAVE THE INSTABILITY THE MODELS SHOW. SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME
MORE CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S.
A SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A LOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE MORE POTENT SOUTHERN SYSTEM. AGAIN
MOISTURE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON HOW MUCH PRECIP
DEVELOPS AND REACHES THE GROUND. NOT IMPRESSED NOW AND WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLGHT CHC OR LOW CHC POPS. FRONT DOES NOT BRING VERY
COLD AIR WITH IT...AS 850 TEMPS GENERALLY ONLY BRIEFLY TOUGH
NEGATIVE TERRITORY AND THIS IS ACROSS THE NW CWA. THUS EXPECT ANY
PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS DIP INTO THE 30S. MEANWHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...AND INTO SW CANADA.
THIS RIDGE DRIFTS EAST FOR MID WEEK WITH GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE
WILL GET FLATTENED AS A TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW TO END THE WEEK...TEMPS DIP DOWN TO THE 60S.
MODELS BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE BANK OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS NRN/CNTL NEB COULD EITHER MOVE
WEST AND DROP SOUTH AS INDICATED BY THE RAP MODEL AND SATELLITE
TRENDS OR SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST AS INDICATED BY THE OTHER MODELS.
SATELLITE SUGGESTS IT MAY BE BUILDING WEST TOWARD KCDR BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE DECAYING AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD KLBF.
THE FORECAST SHIFTS THE STRATUS SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF
THE FCST AREA BY 15Z-18Z. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AT KLBF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1205 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SNOW IS
RAPIDLY ENDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW BAND HAS LARGELY PASSED EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL COUNTIES
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.
THE ADVISORY END TIME HAS BEEN MOVED UP FROM 4 AM TO MIDNIGHT FOR
THOSE COUNTIES ACROSS OUR EAST THAT ARE STILL UNDER THE ADVISORY.
THE SNOW BAND IS MOVING QUICK ENOUGH THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END ACROSS OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE SNOW HAS COME TO AN END. WE WILL NOT BE
GETTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITHIN OUR ADVISORY AREA...BUT
SINCE IT IS NOW SNOWING AND COMING DOWN PRETTY GOOD AT
TIMES...WILL JUST LET THE ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS. MOST
PLACES WITHIN THE ADVISORY WILL SEE 1 INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS MAY PICK UP 2 INCHES IF THEY CAN GET
UNDER A MORE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW BAND. THE SNOW WILL BE SLOW TO
ACCUMULATE DUE TO NEAR SFC AIR TEMPERATURES OF 32 TO 34F AND
WARMER SOIL TEMPERATURES. IT IS JUST A TOUCH TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING
MORE IMPACTFUL. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS EVENING TO AROUND
FREEZING AND SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON AREA BRIDGES AND ROADWAYS
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
CANCELED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END
LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
...A COMPLEX SITUATION IS UNFOLDING WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED DECENT
PRECIP BUT HOW IT FALLS REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN EVEN AS IT`S ON
THE DOORSTEP...
ALOFT: A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF WAS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO NEB/KS
THIS AFTERNOON. CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AND HEADS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW
TOMORROW...HERE ON THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SURFACE: THIS IS THE FIRST SPRING STORM OF THE SEASON...THOUGH
ITS IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED FOR OUR FCST AREA. LOW PRES WAS
OVER ERN KS...SITUATED ALONG A SHARP COLD FRONT. THE FCST AREA WAS
IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS LOW WILL CROSS INTO MO AND BE OVER LAKE
MI BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...MODESTLY DEEPENING OVER THE JOURNEY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SPILL S DOWN THE PLAINS AND INCREASE ITS
INFLUENCE HERE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
NOW: LIFT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING VIA BLOSSOMING RETURNS ON
RADAR. THE TROF IS SHIFTING E AND THE SFC LOW IS NOW OVER KANSAS
CITY. CLOUD TOPS ARE MODESTLY COOLING AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
EDGES E.
THE HI-RES RAP HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON THE REFLECTIVITY IN THIS
BAND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND IN COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
4PM- 5PM.
THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION WITH P-TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE WILL
IS SUB-FRZG W OF THE TROF AXIS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER /BL/
IS ABOVE FRZG...THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR AROUND TO ADVECT
IN ...AND PCPN IS NOT FALLING HEAVY ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO OVERCOME
THE WARM BL. THE PCPN INTENSITY WILL DRIVE THE P-TYPE AND AMTS.
THIS MAKES THE FCST DIFFICULT AND PUTS INTO JEOPARDY THE
OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF ANY CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN-SNOW AND
SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMTS.
IF PCPN DOES NOT COME DOWN HEAVILY ENOUGH...WHEN/IF THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS...IT WILL MELT ON CONTACT.
FCST CONFIDENCE IS LOW THRU MIDNIGHT.
HERE IS OUR CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON:
INTERMITTENT DRZL WITH EMBEDDED SHWRS/SLEET OVER S-CNTRL NEB WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A FAIRLY STEADY R AND EVENTUALLY TO S AS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN BAND HEADS E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL HOLD STEADY.
TONIGHT: EXPECT BY 7 PM THAT WHATEVER RAIN IS FALLING SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE LOSE SOLAR INPUT ON SFC TEMPS. SNOW WILL END
FROM W- E. IT IS WITH RELUCTANCE THAT I AM KEEPING THE
ADVISORY...MAINLY DUE TO THE VERY LOW POTENTIAL THAT THIS PCPN
COULD OVER-PRODUCE. BE ADVISED THAT SNOWFALL AMTS COULD END UP
BELOW AN INCH AND SOME AREAS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT ACCUMULATE AT
ALL. THE SNOW E OF HWY 81 WILL BE DONE BY 3AM. DECREASING CLOUDS
WILL FOLLOW.
FCST SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO NO MORE THAN 1 INCH AND
I HOPE THIS IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF HAND GIVEN THAT THE
STRONGEST PRES RISES WILL OCCUR S OF I-70. GUSTS COULD REACH 40
MPH AT TIMES...E OF HWY 281 OVER S-CNTRL NEB.
POSSIBLE FCST SHORT-COMINGS FOR NUMEROUS. THE SNOW HAS BEEN
MODERATE AT TIMES TODAY OVER NW KS /CBK/ AND EVEN BRIEFLY AT MCK.
IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE TRANSIENT HEAVIER SNOW BANDS COULD
SWING THRU N- CNTRL KS.
TOMORROW: SUNNY AND TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. USED BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND OF MODEL 2M TEMPS AND THE PREVIOUS GID FCST. THIS
RAISED HIGHS 3-4.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING TO NEARLY 700 MB. SO DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWERED BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES...AND
THERE MAY BE MORE DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL INTO THE UPR TEENS.
WINDS WILL BE BRZY IN THE MORNING...GUSTING 30-35 MPH E OF HWY
281. BUT WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
MAIN CONCERNS WILL FOCUS AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SAT NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLUCTUATE
DURING THE PERIOD IN QUESTION.
STARTING OFF FRIDAY EVENING LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO OUR REGION SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR
REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUT THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN ROCKIES AT THAT TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH LEE TROUGHING
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE
WINDS SWITCHING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. END UP WITH A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THUS IT WILL BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY
SIDE ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY
BROAD...SLOW MOVING TROUGH WITH THE 500 MB AXIS OVER THE CENTER OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z MON. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE TROUGH...OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES ROTATE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES POINT
TO ALL LIQUID. ALSO...INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH FORECAST MU-CAPES BELOW 100 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS BETTER JUST TO
THE SOUTHWEST SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OF THE TRANSITION DAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE EAST. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE WARMER AIR TO
BUILD INTO OUR REGION...BUT WED AND THURSDAY SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A NICE WARMUP WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE 70S WHICH
WOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
MODELS DIFFER ON LOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE
TERMINAL...BUT WITH UPSTREAM MVFR CIGS WILL MAINTAIN CIGS FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS YET UNTIL SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE CLEARING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1124 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SSW
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SERN STATES NWD
INTO NRN MICHIGAN. A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...A 50 TO 80 KT JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM SRN AZ INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO NWRN OK. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTH SOUTHWEST FROM THE
LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED INVOF OF A MID LEVEL FRONTO BAND
FROM WESTERN HOLT COUNTY INTO FRONTIER COUNTY. FURTHER
WEST...CLEARING WAS PRESENT...AND HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 34 AT
ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW...TO 43 AT THEDFORD AND OGALLALA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
AS INDICATED BY RADAR TIMING TOOLS AND THE RAP MODEL...SNOW HAS
EXITED THE FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SOUTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION DISRUPTED THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AS A RESULT THE SNOW BAND HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY
AS FIRST THOUGHT. THIS WAS A POSSIBILITY AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY.
WILL CONTINUE THE GOING HEADLINES...AS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA FROM ONEILL TO BROKEN BOW AND
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS ACTUALLY BEGUN TO
BACK WEST SOME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS AREA...AND PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN INCREASING. EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
FROM HOLT COUNTY...SOUTH THROUGH WHEELER AND EASTERN CUSTER
COUNTIES. LATE TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
SKIES CLEARING.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
COOL...WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -2C AT ONEILL TO 7C AT
IMPERIAL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WELL ON SUNDAY.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND SERN WYOMING. SRLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...LEADING TO A FAIRLY
MILD NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION
TO WIND...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING UPPR LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. SRLY WINDS WILL CARRY OVER
INTO SATURDAY WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST INVOF OF A
STALLED OUT BOUNDARY. WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10C
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ARE ON
TRACK. ONLY CONCERN MAY BE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WHICH WILL INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL LIFT INTO WRN KS/SATURDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES IN THE SWRN CWA...TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
ATTM...THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE NWRN CWA
AND ARE COLLOCATED WITH NEGATIVE LI`S SATURDAY EVE...HOWEVER BL
MOISTURE IS VERY MEAGER ON SATURDAY...ESP IN THE NW...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM. ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
PCPN CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WERE GENERALLY
LEFT UNCHANGED FROM THE PVS FCST AS THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS
WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL
AND NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. I DID ADJUST THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
ACROSS THE SWRN CWA BASED ON WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE LI`S AND
STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE LOCATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
EAST INTO THE OZARKS. ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG NRN
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. INHERITED FORECAST HAD A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
WITH THE THREAT LINGERING IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING. IN LIGHT OF
THE MID LEVEL FORCING AND COLD FROPA MONDAY...WILL LEAVE THIS
MENTION IN THE ONGOING FCST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING EAST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
TUESDAY...READINGS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE LATEST MID RANGE MODEL SOLNS ARE
INDICATING A COLD FROPA WHICH WILL DROP OUR HIGHS BACK INTO THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
THE BANK OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS NRN/CNTL NEB COULD EITHER MOVE
WEST AND DROP SOUTH AS INDICATED BY THE RAP MODEL AND SATELLITE
TRENDS OR SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST AS INDICATED BY THE OTHER MODELS.
SATELLITE SUGGESTS IT MAY BE BUILDING WEST TOWARD KCDR BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE DECAYING AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD KLBF.
THE FORECAST SHIFTS THE STRATUS SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF
THE FCST AREA BY 15Z-18Z. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AT KLBF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHERE THE
SKY HAS CLEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. ONE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY IS BEING REPORTED AT DICKINSON...BEACH AND IN BAKER
MONTANA. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOW DENSE FOG IN BELFIELD AND BOWMAN. WILL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 16Z. HETTINGER IS
NEARING A CLEAR POCKET AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE TRYING TO FORECAST
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. THE HRRR SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECAST
SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UP UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z.
THEREAFTER...MIXING ENSUES AND CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CANADA
FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLICING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THE
BEST FORCING RESIDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE GEM/GFS AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW
FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SATURDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP OCCURRING...SO THINK IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL.
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
STATEWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS (THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET) IS FORECAST TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ECMWF) OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (GFS). FOR NOW INDICATED A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 7 FORECAST. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF PARTIAL CLEARING. WITH ANY CLEARING THAT DEVELOPS...PATCHY
FOG MAY RESULT WITH VSBYS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY LIFT AND DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z FRIDAY WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS
DOMINATING THEREAFTER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ031>033-
040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1209 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS SOME POCKETS OF CLEARING ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS FORMING FARTHER WEST. WILL CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY FOG WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS ANY CLEARING COULD RESULT
IN FOG TO COMMENCE. ONCE MIXING ENSUES BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST SASK AT 9 PM CDT. SURFACE
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE MINIMUM NOSING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL. BELIEVE CLEARING WILL BEGIN NORTH CENTRAL LATE THIS
EVENING AND NOSE SOUTH AS IT ALSO ERODES FORM THE SOUTHWEST.
ADJUSTED CLOUDS FOR THIS. ALSO SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN A BIT
LONGER SOUTH CENTRAL UNDER THIS NEW CLOUD PATTERN...RAISED THE
MIN`S ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES SOUTH CENTRAL FROM THE TEENS TO AROUND
20.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
PRETTY SOLID OVERCAST THIS EVENING ACROSS THE STATE SO BEEFED UP
CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY WEST DURING THE FIST COUPLE HOURS THIS
EVENING. DROPPED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
EVENTUALLY DURING THE MID EVENING THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
WEST. ADDED PATCHY FOG WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS SEEM OK SO FAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IMPACTED BY FRESH SNOW COVER.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS MANY ROADS ARE NOW WET OR SLUSH
COVERED. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A QUICK RE-FREEZE DURING
THE EARLY EVENING...RESULTING IN SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST HALF...SLIGHTLY WARMER EAST. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AREAS
THAT DIDN`T RECEIVE AS MUCH RECENT SNOWFALL. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW ELSEWHERE SHOULD HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS MAINTAINED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SEVERAL EMBEDDED
S/WV`S WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. EACH WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...CURRENTLY DEPICTED FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANOTHER ROUND DURING THE
DAY AND EVENING SUNDAY MORE WIDESPREAD. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL
POCKET OF WARM AIR AROUND 5C. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SFC
TEMPERATURES. AS THE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...SFC LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. MAY VERY WELL SEE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS ONLY RAIN WOULD
THEN FALL.
STRONGER EMBEDDED S/WV MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY MORE
ENERGY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
TRANSITIONING OUR FLOW ALOFT TO NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY DAYTIME. LOW
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE LOW COMBINES WITH SUPPORT ALOFT TO PROVIDE A
BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH MODELS GENERATING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUS WENT WITH SHOWERS VERSUS STRATIFORM.
MAY WANT TO CONSIDER THUNDER MENTION IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK AND TDS ARE RATHER
LOW IN THE 30S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK MOVING SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE RIDGE FLATTENING WED
NIGHT-THURSDAY AS RIDGE RIDER S/WV`S MOVE EAST INTO NORTH AMERICAN
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD INTRODUCE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK.
FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EXPECTED (HIGHS 40S/LOWER 50S AND LOWS 25-35). ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EAST...MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY STILL
LOOKING GOOD. COOLER AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES THURSDAY AND ON CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IMPACTED BY FRESH SNOW COVER.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS MANY ROADS ARE NOW WET OR SLUSH
COVERED. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A QUICK RE-FREEZE DURING
THE EARLY EVENING...RESULTING IN SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST HALF...SLIGHTLY WARMER EAST. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AREAS
THAT DIDN`T RECEIVE AS MUCH RECENT SNOWFALL. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW ELSEWHERE SHOULD HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS MAINTAINED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SEVERAL EMBEDDED
S/WV`S WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. EACH WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...CURRENTLY DEPICTED FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANOTHER ROUND DURING THE
DAY AND EVENING SUNDAY MORE WIDESPREAD. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MID LEVEL
POCKET OF WARM AIR AROUND 5C. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SFC
TEMPERATURES. AS THE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...SFC LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. MAY VERY WELL SEE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS ONLY RAIN WOULD
THEN FALL.
STRONGER EMBEDDED S/WV MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING...THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY MORE
ENERGY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
TRANSITIONING OUR FLOW ALOFT TO NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY DAYTIME. LOW
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE LOW COMBINES WITH SUPPORT ALOFT TO PROVIDE A
BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN WITH MODELS GENERATING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUS WENT WITH SHOWERS VERSUS STRATIFORM.
MAY WANT TO CONSIDER THUNDER MENTION IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK AND TDS ARE RATHER
LOW IN THE 30S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK MOVING SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE RIDGE FLATTENING WED
NIGHT-THURSDAY AS RIDGE RIDER S/WV`S MOVE EAST INTO NORTH AMERICAN
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD INTRODUCE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK.
FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EXPECTED (HIGHS 40S/LOWER 50S AND LOWS 25-35). ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EAST...MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY STILL
LOOKING GOOD. COOLER AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES THURSDAY AND ON CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF PARTIAL CLEARING. WITH ANY CLEARING THAT DEVELOPS...PATCHY
FOG MAY RESULT WITH VSBYS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY LIFT AND DECREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z FRIDAY WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS
DOMINATING THEREAFTER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
LONG TERM...HEINERT
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
403 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY AROUND 12Z IN OUR FAR EAST.
QUITE A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS UPSTREAM...AND HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST
THIS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...FEEL THAT EVEN IF WE DID GET SOME SUNNY BREAKS...WE WOULD
MIX AND STRATOCU WOULD REFORM. THUS THINKING TODAY IS A MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME CLEARING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BY
LATER IN THE DAY. SOME FLURRIES ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING
OUT OF THE STRATUS...MAYBE EVEN A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
THE SATURATION DEPTH DECREASES AND WE POTENTIALLY LOSE ICE FORMATION
IN THE CLOUDS. THINK MOST OF THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY...WITH 25 TO 35 KTS AT
925 MB THIS MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE...BUT GIVEN
THE BEST PRESSURE RISES STAY EAST OF THE AREA AND THE STRATUS
LIMITING MIXING...THINK WE WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW...SUSTAINED 20
TO 30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. GIVEN THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...DO
NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BLOWING
SNOW...BUT SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS COINCIDE.
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WENT
ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE WE HAVE SNOW COVER...WHERE TEENS SEEM PROBABLE. A WEAK WAVE
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY TO GET ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE GROUND. BUT THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
STEADY OFF OR SLOWLY RISE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SOMEWHAT DIRTY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS SMALL PIECES OF
ENERGY BREAK AWAY FROM FROM ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY IS CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH IN AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH...BUT SOME ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE
TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
QUITE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.
GIVEN THIS IS THE CASE...THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS...SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID.
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE UP THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. WITH DEEPENING
LOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS
THROUGHOUT THE THE DAY.
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST 925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO
THE LOWERS 20S...AND HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS....BUT POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH IF WE ARE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY MIX. COULD BE THE WARMEST
DAY SINCE EARLY OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOTCHING 925 HPA TEMPS BACK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WITH DRY ENVIRONMENT...AM EXPECTING DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH COOLER YET UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING UP LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH 12Z...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEST TO EAST DURING
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS
INITIALLY DUE TO WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS...BUT AFTER 20Z-22Z TIME
FRAME...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING BAND OF SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
KYKN-KFSD-KMML/KTKC LINE...PRODUCING LIFR-VLIFR VISIBILITY IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND...INCLUDING KSUX/KSPW...MAY
SEE PERIODS OF SLEET MIXING WITH RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
CHANGE TO IFR VISIBILITY IN SNOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING KMHE/KHON...ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL...THOUGH MVFR
VISIBILITY STILL EXPECTED AT TIMES IN AREAS OF FOG. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY AT OR ABOVE 25KT FOR
KFSD/KSUX TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ080-081-
089-090.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ014-
021-022-032.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ002-003-
013.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1243 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 57 FOR COUNTIES
ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 281 (MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
WILL BE ACROSS LA SALLE...MCMULLEN...AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES.
UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST TOWARDS THE COAST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
GIVE INCREASING CIN.
UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FAR NORTHWEST CWA AT 06Z...WITH
SEVERE TSTMS OCCURRING JUST NORTHWEST OF COT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...WITH
A HAIL THREAT ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 281. UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST
SEVERE THREAT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN INCREASING CIN ALONG THE COAST.
NEVERTHELESS...HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS IN VCT TAF 08Z-12Z AND VCSH IN
CRP TAF 10Z-13Z. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...A TRANSITION FROM IFR TO
VFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL
BE AT VFR LEVELS BY 15-17Z AS STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR PUSH INTO SOUTH TX BEHIND A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN MAVERICK TO UVALDE COUNTIES.
HAVE BEEN MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ALL NIGHT...BUT
NEEDED THE PUSH OF THIS FRONT TO BE ABLE TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CAP...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT HAS FINALLY BEGUN. ENVIRONMENT ABOVE
THE CAP IS CONDUCIVE TO RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY
HIGH CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HRRR AND RAP HAVE GOTTEN MORE
ENERGETIC WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND IF THE FRONT
CAN CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
GENERAL BEHAVIOR OR STORMS SO FAR HAS BEEN A RAPID
DEVELOPMENT...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DECLINE. THAT MAY BE THE PLAN
ALL NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 82 62 72 63 80 / 20 30 40 40 30
VICTORIA 78 55 66 58 76 / 20 20 50 50 40
LAREDO 81 61 77 62 88 / 20 10 20 30 20
ALICE 82 59 71 60 80 / 20 20 30 40 30
ROCKPORT 79 61 70 64 77 / 20 30 50 50 40
COTULLA 78 56 70 57 82 / 10 10 20 30 20
KINGSVILLE 81 61 74 63 83 / 20 30 40 40 30
NAVY CORPUS 80 63 70 65 76 / 20 30 50 50 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1126 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN MAVERICK TO UVALDE COUNTIES.
HAVE BEEN MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ALL NIGHT...BUT
NEEDED THE PUSH OF THIS FRONT TO BE ABLE TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CAP...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT HAS FINALLY BEGUN. ENVIRONMENT ABOVE
THE CAP IS CONDUCIVE TO RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY
HIGH CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HRRR AND RAP HAVE GOTTEN MORE
ENERGETIC WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND IF THE FRONT
CAN CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
GENERAL BEHAVIOR OR STORMS SO FAR HAS BEEN A RAPID
DEVELOPMENT...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DECLINE. THAT MAY BE THE PLAN
ALL NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 82 62 72 63 / 20 20 30 40 40
VICTORIA 64 78 55 66 58 / 40 20 20 50 50
LAREDO 62 81 61 77 62 / 20 10 10 20 30
ALICE 64 82 59 71 60 / 20 10 20 30 40
ROCKPORT 67 79 61 70 64 / 30 20 30 50 50
COTULLA 61 78 56 70 57 / 30 10 10 20 30
KINGSVILLE 67 81 61 74 63 / 20 20 30 40 40
NAVY CORPUS 68 80 63 70 65 / 20 20 30 50 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
519 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WET WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY...
998 MB CYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WILL GET PROPELLED
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WARM MOIST AIR...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST. SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW IS RACING EAST...AND AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT. THIS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR
FCST AREA AT LEAST 6 TO 8 HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ENTERING OUR
WESTERN CWA...WEST OF I-77 AROUND LUNCH TIME TODAY...THEN MOVING
OVER THE MTNS BETWEEN NOON AND 2PM. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME.
THIS INITIAL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW KINDA PUTS A CLOUD ON THE
FORECAST. WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING OUR FCST AREA AROUND
NOON...THIS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR US TO REACH FULL SOLAR
POTENTIAL TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY. THE
ONLY PLACE MODELS BRING CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IS OUR PIEDMONT
COUNTIES WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SUN PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
AS SUCH...THIS MAY BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR STRONGER STORMS. FROM
THE FOOTHILLS WEST...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL PUT A BIG QUESTION
MARK ON HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL BE AVAILIBLE TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION...NEW SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. THAT SAID...THERE SHOULD BE A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT
REDEVELOPS ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...JUST NOT CONFIDENT ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME OVERLY ROBUST.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...CURRENT FORECAST IS DETAILED TO REFLECT
TWO POTENTIAL PRECIP EPISODES TODAY. ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE AREA BETWEEN
11AM(BLUEFIELD)-3PM(DANVILLE)...AND A SECOND UPTICK IN POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 6PM(BLUEFIELD)-10PM(DANVILLE).
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WILL THEN HEAD DOWNHILL...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS
OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY...SLOWED A LITTLE BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH
CENTER WILL SLIDE EAST ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST. DYNAMICS AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF REACH OUR AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SLOWLY INCREASE POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID
30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY
AND REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY. A CLOUDY AND RAINY MONDAY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER
40S IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER ILLINOIS TUESDAY MORNING WILL OPEN UP
AND TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY...
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAY YIELD LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEW
RIVER...GREENBRIER...AND ROANOKE VALLEYS...VCNTY OF KBLF/KLWB/KROA.
ANY FOG THAT IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z...WITH SKIES
STAYING VFR WITH INCREASING CU/TCU IN THE WEST BY MIDDAY. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE COMMON.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA WILL REACH BLF/LWB AROUND
16Z/NOON TODAY...REACHING BCB/ROA AROUND 18Z AND TO NEAR KDAN
AROUND 20Z. THIS INITIAL STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS RACED OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD REACH BLF/LWB AROUND
21Z...BCB/ROA...23Z...LYH/DAN 01Z.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF
40KTS. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD VFR. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN...AS WELL AS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
FLAT TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING.
LATEST FOG PRODUCT SHOWS SOME STRATUS/FOG EAST OF A CRAWFORD TO
ALLIANCE LINE. HRRR SHOWS THESE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HANGING
AROUND UNTIL AROUND 9 AM BEFORE LIFTING. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FLATTER WITH THE TRANSITORY RIDGING TODAY AND EVEN SHOWS WK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH IS NR
THE UT/WY STATELINE THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE ENE REACHING
NORTHEAST WYOMING BY THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES FOR A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND REMAIN VIRGA AS THE 30+F
SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 40S WEST AND 50S TO MAYBE NR 60 OUT ON THE
ERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS WELL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
IN AND AROUND VIRGA SHOWERS. FLOW BACKS OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ADDL COOLING IN THE
MID-LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH...EXPECT INSTABILITIES TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE TO CONVECTION SATURDAY. DONT THINK THAT THE AREA WILL
SEE MUCH BEFORE NOON SATURDAY...WITH COVERAGE TO INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES WILL FALL TO AROUND -1C DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE BUMPED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 INTO THE
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY IN ADDITION TO ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR
SATURDAY...WITH LOW 60S A GOOD BET ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WRN PANHANDLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...THE SRN ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS LEAVING
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF A 140+
KNOT H3 JET STREAK DIVING SOUTH OF BC/ALBERTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. ADDED THUNDER MENTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS FOR
SNOW AMOUNTS...THE HIER ELEVATIONS OF SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES WILL SEE
ANOTHER 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANY
ADVECTION IS NEGLIGIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
LONG RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT THEN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
IN ADDITION...BY DAY 7 AND 8 MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT SOLUTION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
DURING THE WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING FROM PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW TO COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE AND BUILDS NORTHWARD. ALL MODELS STILL SHOW A
DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOW A BIT STRONGER WITH A MORE
DEFINED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST QPF VALUES
ARE A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
JET AND MORE INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES OVER 500 J/KG INTO EARLY MONDAY.
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 40 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE RIDGES. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH INTO MONDAY WITH COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LLVL INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S
DURING THE DAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING EASTWARD OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INCREASING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. SOME READING
IN THE LOW 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR EASTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THIS RIDGE QUICKLY WEAKENING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM LAST NIGHTS 00Z MODEL
RUNS. THIS GENERAL INCONSISTENCY BEYOND DAY 6 HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ALL WINTER LONG WHEN MODELS HAVE INDICATED A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW
SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
18 TO 24 HOURS LATER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF. STARTED TO INCREASE POP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. FURTHER OUT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE 2ND WEEKEND OF
APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KAIA...AND KCDR WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CIGS
AROUND 1K FEET AGL EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z...WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WITH DISSIPATING LOW CIGS. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WINDS MAY GUST
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
40S WEST AND 50S EAST. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS RETURNING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
738 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO
SEA TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE
NATION THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING PRECIP WEST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
THROUGH THE DAY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. DID NOT
ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY GIVEN WARM LAKE WATERS AND SHORT FETCH
WITH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
RUC/GFS AND NAM ALL INDICATE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GIVEN MOS
BIAS FOR THE PAST FEW DAY...WILL TREND AFTERNOON HIGHS UPWARD...
MORE IN LINE WITH THE RUC MODEL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ONCE AGAIN.
TONIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA IT WILL BE
WEAKENING AND WITH NO ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE LIMITED. RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL
ALSO RESTRICTED WITH PWAT VALUES QUICKLY PEAKING AROUND 1.3 INCHES
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. STILL EXPECT LESS
THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH AREAS SEEING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE UP TO HALF AN INCH. KEPT LOWS IN
THE MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/NORTHERN FL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL REORIENT SATURDAY EVENING AND BEGIN WORKING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA CLOSER TO THE FRONT...HOWEVER
DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN OVER THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BEGINNING IN THE CSRA
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACHING LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE AND RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES INLAND AND THROUGH WESTERN MS WITH A SWATH OF MOISTURE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL
BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND FINALLY EXITS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SOUTHERLY WINDS. SCATTERED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND THEREFORE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SHOWERS IN TAFS. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO CENTER AROUND 03Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. ANY
SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO THE REGION COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL MONITOR PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SECOND SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA BY
EARLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL EXIST FOR PRECIPITATION AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1030 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS HAS MADE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER MORNING AS THE LATEST MCS IS
TRACKING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. HAVE DROPPED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SEVERE WATCH FOR OUR AREA WITH THE REST ON TRACK TO BE GONE BY 11 AM.
STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE
OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS THROUGH NOON...BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL KICK
IN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHARP FRONT DESTINED TO BE CROSSING INTO OUR
AREA. FOR THIS WE DO HAVE A WIND ADVISORY GOING INTO EFFECT STARTING
AT NOON AND LASTING THROUGH 8 PM. DO EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUAL FRONT AS IT PASSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIT
WITH THE MORNING ACTIVITY. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER
FOR THE AREA ONCE THE MORNING MCS EXITS...TOO. WILL CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH...AS THE RUNOFF MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE CREEKS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH ARE RUNNING QUITE
FULL. A COUPLE OF FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID PART OF THE
CWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
IN ADDITION...A FEW RIVER POINTS WILL GO INTO ACTION WITH A COUPLE OF
SPOTS POSSIBLY HITTING FLOOD. THE UPDATES FOR THE GRIDS AND
PRODUCTS...AFFECTED BY THE SVR WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO
TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING
UPSTREAM...WITH THE KENTUCKY MESONET REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LATEST MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS SHOW
THIS LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM...AND LIKELY
EXITING THE EAST BY AROUND NOON TIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS
UPSTREAM AND THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS LINE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STAY UNDER SEVERE
LIMITS AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING UP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS...AS AN
850 MB JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTIVE
LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WITH PEAK WINDS
GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS
TODAY...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AT LEAST DELAY ANY RECEDING THAN CAN
TAKE PLACE.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE
30S...DEPENDING ON CLEARING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO
THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...FINALLY
REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE
MID TERM...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
STAY NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHTS
TEMPS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWARD...TRAVERSING
THROUGH KY SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT A VERY STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO
PULL IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON
SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE AN
IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT ONCE THE PRECIP GETS
GOING...SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AT
ONSET...AND THEN A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. IF ANY OF
THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR
THUNDERSTORM...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HIGH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE.
THE ONLY INHIBITOR RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE
DURING THIS SYSTEM...INHIBITING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS IS
LOOKING TO BE A PRIMARILY FAST MOVING...WIND PRODUCING...RAIN EVENT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT JUST NE OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO
GAIN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...SOME DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT. BUT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE
REGION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE POPS TO
RETURN/CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...AS THE GEM AND GFS HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 18Z TUESDAY...AND THE
NAM THOUGH SHOWING SOME QPF...IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN
NATURE. EITHER WAY...DRYING OR NO DRYING...ANOTHER SWING OF MOISTURE
IS GOING TO BE ENTERING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE KY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE TROUGH AT
THIS POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR POPS IN THIS PERIOD...AS ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OR
STRENGTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SET UP OF THIS PRECIP.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH KY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
HOLD ONCE MORE. IT IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
SOME DECENT FOGGING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE GETS TRAPPED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORN. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 KTS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-75 THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING FURTHER INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. ONCE THIS MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE WORKS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA BY 17Z...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE TO ENGAGE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BY DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
821 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
A STRONG TO SEVERE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY SWINGING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NASHVILLE AREA. CLOUDS TOPS IN GENERAL ARE WARMING ACCORDING TO THE
IR...HOWEVER WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE...THIS CLUSTER MAY HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEST OF I-75 AFTER 8
AM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STORMS IF THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO
TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING
UPSTREAM...WITH THE KENTUCKY MESONET REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LATEST MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS SHOW
THIS LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM...AND LIKELY
EXITING THE EAST BY AROUND NOON TIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS
UPSTREAM AND THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS LINE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STAY UNDER SEVERE
LIMITS AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING UP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS...AS AN
850 MB JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTIVE
LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WITH PEAK WINDS
GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS
TODAY...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AT LEAST DELAY ANY RECEDING THAN CAN
TAKE PLACE.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE
30S...DEPENDING ON CLEARING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO
THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...FINALLY
REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE
MID TERM...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
STAY NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHTS
TEMPS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWARD...TRAVERSING
THROUGH KY SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT A VERY STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO
PULL IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON
SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE AN
IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT ONCE THE PRECIP GETS
GOING...SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AT
ONSET...AND THEN A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. IF ANY OF
THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR
THUNDERSTORM...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HIGH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE.
THE ONLY INHIBITOR RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE
DURING THIS SYSTEM...INHIBITING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS IS
LOOKING TO BE A PRIMARILY FAST MOVING...WIND PRODUCING...RAIN EVENT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT JUST NE OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO
GAIN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...SOME DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT. BUT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE
REGION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE POPS TO
RETURN/CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...AS THE GEM AND GFS HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 18Z TUESDAY...AND THE
NAM THOUGH SHOWING SOME QPF...IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN
NATURE. EITHER WAY...DRYING OR NO DRYING...ANOTHER SWING OF MOISTURE
IS GOING TO BE ENTERING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE KY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE TROUGH AT
THIS POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR POPS IN THIS PERIOD...AS ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OR
STRENGTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SET UP OF THIS PRECIP.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH KY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
HOLD ONCE MORE. IT IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
SOME DECENT FOGGING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE GETS TRAPPED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORN. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
MVFR/IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 KTS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-75 THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING FURTHER INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. ONCE THIS MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE WORKS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA BY 17Z...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE TO ENGAGE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES. CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BY DUSK.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
705 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
A STRONG TO SEVERE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY SWINGING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
NASHVILLE AREA. CLOUDS TOPS IN GENERAL ARE WARMING ACCORDING TO THE
IR...HOWEVER WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE...THIS CLUSTER MAY HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEST OF I-75 AFTER 8
AM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
STORMS IF THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO
TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING
UPSTREAM...WITH THE KENTUCKY MESONET REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LATEST MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS SHOW
THIS LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM...AND LIKELY
EXITING THE EAST BY AROUND NOON TIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS
UPSTREAM AND THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS LINE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STAY UNDER SEVERE
LIMITS AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING UP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS...AS AN
850 MB JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTIVE
LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WITH PEAK WINDS
GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS
TODAY...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AT LEAST DELAY ANY RECEDING THAN CAN
TAKE PLACE.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE
30S...DEPENDING ON CLEARING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO
THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...FINALLY
REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE
MID TERM...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
STAY NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHTS
TEMPS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWARD...TRAVERSING
THROUGH KY SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT A VERY STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO
PULL IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON
SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE AN
IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT ONCE THE PRECIP GETS
GOING...SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AT
ONSET...AND THEN A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. IF ANY OF
THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR
THUNDERSTORM...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HIGH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE.
THE ONLY INHIBITOR RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE
DURING THIS SYSTEM...INHIBITING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS IS
LOOKING TO BE A PRIMARILY FAST MOVING...WIND PRODUCING...RAIN EVENT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT JUST NE OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO
GAIN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...SOME DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT. BUT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE
REGION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE POPS TO
RETURN/CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...AS THE GEM AND GFS HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 18Z TUESDAY...AND THE
NAM THOUGH SHOWING SOME QPF...IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN
NATURE. EITHER WAY...DRYING OR NO DRYING...ANOTHER SWING OF MOISTURE
IS GOING TO BE ENTERING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE KY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE TROUGH AT
THIS POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR POPS IN THIS PERIOD...AS ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OR
STRENGTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SET UP OF THIS PRECIP.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH KY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
HOLD ONCE MORE. IT IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
SOME DECENT FOGGING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE GETS TRAPPED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORN. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN
10 AND 15Z. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE...WITH
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO IFR/MVFR. ONCE THE INITIAL
LINE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS...BEFORE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ENGAGE BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTION. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH
BY EARLY EVENING...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LINE OF STORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1121 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW
ENTERS LOWER MI. THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOW WITH A SECONDARY CENTER
LOCATED TO THE SE HAS KEPT THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS LED TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG
LINGERING LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
CWA...TEMPERATURES HOLDING AT OR BELOW 40 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
KEPT OUT OF THE AREA...ONSET OF PRECIP DELAYED OVER SE MI AS THE
SECONDARY LOW AND FRONT RAMPED UP OVER CENTRAL OHIO...AND CONCERNS
ABOUT THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE AS LACK OF MIXING WILL
MAKE IT INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT TO TAP INTO THE ELEVATED WINDS
ALOFT LEAVING US WITH MORE OF A PURE GRADIENT FLOW VS DOWNWARD
MIXING PLUS GRADIENT FLOW. WILL GIVE THE WINDS A CHANCE YET AS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL ENTER THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SECONDARY LOW PIVOTS UP AND AROUND
THE MAIN PRESSURE CENTER. IN ADDITION...GRADIENT FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH.
LOWERED POPS FOR EXTREME SE MI AS PRECIP SHIELD STRUGGLES TO FILL
IN COMPLETELY. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATE START WITH WAA AND EXCESSIVE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
PREVENTING THE SUN FROM ADDING MUCH TO THE CAUSE. CURRENT FOG
LAYER WILL GET SCOURED OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS PRECIP
INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND COLD FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALL IS QUIET TO BEGIN THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SETTLED
BETWEEN AN ACTIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND
ONGOING AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF INTEREST IS PRESENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN BARREN OF ANY ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES SHOW SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE ALONG A
LINE FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO FORT WAYNE AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING AS
ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE. BUT SO FAR THE
00Z NWP HAVE GIVEN FAR TOO MUCH RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY
WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER GRASP
ON THE SITUATION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE WITH THE LATTER GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNINSPIRING APPEARANCE ON RADAR. THUS, TRIMMED POPS BACK IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR LOW COVERAGE THROUGH 15Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY SEE A GLANCING BLOW AS
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD.
EXPANSION OF COVERAGE IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV
ANOMALY OVER MISSOURI WRAP INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING WILL BE AT THEIR GREATEST. HOWEVER,
ALL LOCATIONS CAN STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF 1.2+" PWATS.
SUPERPOSITION OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT AROUND 18Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THAT
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL EXIST, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN
ISOLATED AT BEST.
GOOD SIGNATURE IN THE HIGH RES MODELS OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, INDICATIVE OF AN AGGRESSIVE MASS
ADJUSTMENT TAKING PLACE. WHEN CONSIDERED ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND TIMING DURING PEAK HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO
MAXIMIZED MIXING DEPTHS, ADVISORY OR NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS
CERTAINLY SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL FROPA. THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE
APPRECIABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS
SOUTH. LIKEWISE, LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE A BIT OF A DELAY
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER WINDS FOR THIS REASON. COLD ADVECTION
WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
WINDS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 KTS BEING TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BY STRONG
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT FROM 275-285K.
ALL SURFACES WITHIN THIS 10K DEEP LAYER INTERSECT THE GROUND AND
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND COMPONENT TO
HELP MAXIMIZE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE STRONG WIND FIELD. COMBINED
WITH NAM PROGS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING WITHIN
THE MIXED LAYER IN SPITE OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP MIXING, A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS LIKE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION FOR AT LEAST THE 21-03Z PERIOD.
SAID ADVISORY WAS THEREFORE ISSUED BEGINNING WITH THE INITIAL FROPA
AND LASTING UNTIL COLD ADVECTION EASES AROUND MIDNIGHT.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEPART INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY AS LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC ADVANCING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TRAPPED UNDER A DEEP INVERSION SHOULD EQUATE TO
AMPLE CLOUD COVER SAT MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING TREND SAT AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN
WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS INTO THE 40S DESPITE A RATHER CHILLY START
TO THE DAY. A LINGERING NW GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER CAUSE RATHER BRISK
NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD SAT
NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT MINS
DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF SE MI. SOME MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS BY SUNDAY SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
SHOWN BY THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE...FEATURING A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WRN US AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTL AND
ERN US. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS
FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION SUNDAY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THERE ACTUALLY REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW
WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OVERSPREADS SE MI MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY NIGHT.
SEEING AS THIS SYSTEM WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GULF...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE DEFORMATION REGION AND THUS
HIGH POPS ARE JUSTIFIED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL HOLD WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN PRECIP TYPE AS ALL RAIN. THE GFS
DEEPENS THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
AND THUS HOLDS THE DEFORMATION FORCING OVER SE MI RIGHT INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS SOLUTIONS DOES OFFER THE POSSIBILITY THAT COOLING DUE
TO MELTING FROM PROLONGED PRECIP MAY CHANCE SOME LOCALS OVER TO SNOW
LATE MON NIGHT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS...SUPPORTING ALL RAIN AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN US
LONG WAVE RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL HOWEVER OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR
REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING TO NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM
AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ICY WATERS OF THE LAKES WILL INHIBIT THESE
STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE LAKE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTH OF THUNDER BAY WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND THUS MAKE SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
18Z. WINDS OVER LAKE HURON WILL THEN DECREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE SFC HIGH TRACKS OVERHEAD. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN LEAD TO A SHARP
INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THESE STRONGER WINDS...EXPECTED TO EXCEED
GALE FORCE AT TIMES...WILL FIRST REACH WRN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST
CLAIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER LAKE
HURON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON INTO SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1205 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
//DISCUSSION...
LOWER CEILING WILL MAKE ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS AGAINST DRY
LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. IFR CEILING WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO DTW AT PRESS TIME TO GO WITH THAT IN THE FORECAST
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF ISSUANCE TIME. THE LOWER CEILING WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH FROM THERE AND VISIBILITY WILL FOLLOW
DOWNWARD AS RAIN INCREASES OVER THE REGION CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AT
THIS POINT, THUNDER IS MORE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A SOLID AREA OF RAIN FILLS IN
OVER SE MICHIGAN NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AS RAIN COMBINES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WHICH WILL POINT TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND POST FRONT THAT WILL
HAVE GUST POTENTIAL TO 40 KNOTS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5 KFT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS FROM
240 DEG FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-
MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
MIZ083...FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 4
PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON
INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......DRK
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1101 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SNOW CONTINUES HEAVY OVER THE WEST TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS
HAVE SEEN THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS STORM THUS FAR. SNOW AMOUNTS SO
FAR OVER THE WEST OF AT LEAST 10 INCHES IN MANY AREAS. PTYPE ISSUES
AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL HAS KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER CNTRL
CWA LESS THAN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME.
BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT CNTRL CWA INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. JUST
RECEIVED REPORT FROM SPOTTER NEAR NORWAY OF OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE
HOUR WITH THIS SNOW AS IT MOVED THROUGH. BASED ON NUMEROUS REPORTS
RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...THANKS TO EVERYONE FOR THOSE...WE HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON PTYPE. TURNS OUT THE RUC13 HAS DECENT HANDLE AS
WELL...SHOWING THE WARM LAYER AT 750MB COLLAPSING EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IS WHAT ON THE GROUND REPORTS AND 88D MQT DUAL
POL CC DATA INDICATE. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG WI BORDER AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN. CLOSER TO
LK SUPERIOR AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CWA...EXPECT TOTALS INTO THIS EVENING STILL IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH
RANGE. APPEARS THE MOST SNOW FROM HERE ON OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NCNTRL CWA...BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES. WOULD
IMAGINE UPSLOPE AREAS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL STILL SEE TOTALS OVER
A FOOT LOCALLY.
NO CHANGES TO HAZARDS FOR NOW. TWEAKED WORDING TO DOWNPLAY ICE/SLEET
AND HIT UP THE SNOW MORE. ALSO UPDATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN GRIDS
AND WSW STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
KEPT SPIRIT OF PREVIOUS FORECAST UNCHANGED AS ONGOING WINTER STORM
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
LITTLE LESS THAN RUNS FROM 12 HOURS AGO...SO LOWERED QPF/SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY AS HEAVY PRECIP AND SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR LIKELY IN AREAS EXPECTED SNOW. THE ONLY AREA NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE MOSTLY SNOW IS OVER THE ERN U.P. AND AREAS SE OF A LINE FROM
GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS AS ELEVATED WARM NOSE MOVES INTO THESE AREAS.
ON THE N/NW FRINGES OF THE WARM NOSE...LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH FOR PRIMARILY SLEET THIS MORNING WHILE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY THE PRECIP WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO RAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING. BY 18Z TODAY...COLDER AIR MOVES IN THAT WILL TURN
LIQUID PRECIP TO SNOW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH STILL EXPECTED OVER SRN DELTA AND SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /INCLUDING WHAT HAS BEEN
SEEN SO FAR SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-18 INCHES
IN THE ALL SNOW AREA NW OF A LINE FROM GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS...WITH
THE HIGHEST OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE WITH VERY
DRY AIR MOVES TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z SAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE TROFS IN THE PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A
TENDENCY FOR RIDGING OVER WRN NAMERICA OR ALONG THE W COAST AND
TROFFING OVER ERN NAMERICA. RESULT WILL BE FLUCTUATION OF TEMPS
BTWN ABOVE AND BLO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO. AFTER THE
ONGOING STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENTS DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA MOVES E AND THEN LIFTS NE TO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES.
COMPARED TO TODAY...THE WEATHER SAT WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT AS
A VERY DRY AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE E EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTN...BUT OTHERWISE...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE BRIGHT SUNSHINE ON THE FRESH SNOW
COVER. WITH THE EVER INCREASING MID DAY SUN ANGLE NOW THAT WE ARE
INTO EARLY APR...THE FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RESPOND
NICELY. OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
30S TO MID 40S. IT WILL BE COOLEST (LWR 30S) OVER THE E NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR UNDER NW WINDS OFF THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE.
SAT NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. ASSOCIATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTENING TAKING PLACE AT LOW LEVELS
TO YIELD SOME PCPN LATER IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NW FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS COULD BE A MIX OF
SNOW/FZRA/RA. ONLY SCHC POPS WILL BE UTILIZED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN WHETHER ANY PCPN WILL REACH THE SFC.
LOW PCPN CHC WILL SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA SUN AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHIFTS E. WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN PTYPE
CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO AT LEAST THE 40S ACROSS THE FCST
AREA (SOME LWR 50S ALONG WI BORDER).
SUN NIGHT/MON...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SRN END OF THE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO CA. SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN
AND THEN LIFT NE SUN NIGHT/MON IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER
WRN NAMERICA WHICH FORCES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHARPLY SSE THRU THE WRN
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE WRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
DISPLACED TOO FAR W OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TO PHASE WITH IT AND FORCE
IT FAR ENOUGH N TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON UPPER MI. WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF AXIS...THERE MAY BE SOME -RA...WITH -FZRA
ALSO POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
AS PTYPE MON NIGHT. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. NEXT SET OF SHORTWAVES
TRACK ESE INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED NIGHT/THU. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN INTO THE AREA LATER WED
INTO WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT`S UNCERTAIN HOW FAR S THE COLUMN WILL
SATURATE UNDER THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE GFS KEEPS WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PCPN WELL N OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS PCPN ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE NEEDED GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY (LOWEST POPS SW AND HIGHEST POPS NE). GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE WARMING (850MB TEMPS RISE TO 4 TO 9C ECMWF OR 10 TO 13C
GFS)...PTYPE WILL BE RAIN...THOUGH SOME -FZRA MAY OCCUR OVER THE E
WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL JUST BLO FREEZING. WITH SFC LOW PASSING BY TO
THE N...COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH POTENTIAL OF
SOME -SHRA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXPECT SOME VARIABILITY IN CONDITIONS DUE TO NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
COMING IN WAVES TODAY...BUT OVERALL POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. DRY AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BE
IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER N MO WILL MOVE TO S LAKE MI BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...ACROSS N LOWER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT ALONG THE
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NE TO N GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY TO
EXPAND OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE N AND NNW.
WINDS FROM MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
30KTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW ACROSS S HUDSON BAY WILL ALLOW A BRIEF
TROUGH TO EXTEND OVER FAR N LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN LOW
PRESSURE NEAR KY MONDAY MORNING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT THE TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO FILL SLIGHTLY ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>011-013-014-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ246>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
655 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT SPARSE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SHOWERS AT ALL TAF SITES. THE GREATEST
PERSISTENCE AND DURATION ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF KPTK WHERE MOISTURE
AND FORCING WILL BE GREATEST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN WORK THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A VERY
LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND CONCERNS WILL LIKEWISE TRANSITION FROM WIND
FROM WIND SHEAR TO STRONG CROSS WINDS, ESPECIALLY 21Z-03Z WHEN GUSTS
MAY EXCEED 40 KTS. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO FALL BELOW 30 KNOTS.
FOR DTW...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
DURING THE MORNING. FRONTAL PASSAGE ESTIMATED TO OCCUR AT THE
AIRFIELD AROUND 18Z WILL FORCE WIND TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AND RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION TOWARD GUSTY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS BETWEEN 20Z-01Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5 KFT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM
250-260 DEGREES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALL IS QUIET TO BEGIN THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SETTLED
BETWEEN AN ACTIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND
ONGOING AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF INTEREST IS PRESENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN BARREN OF ANY ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES SHOW SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE ALONG A
LINE FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO FORT WAYNE AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING AS
ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE. BUT SO FAR THE
00Z NWP HAVE GIVEN FAR TOO MUCH RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY
WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER GRASP
ON THE SITUATION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE WITH THE LATTER GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNINSPIRING APPEARANCE ON RADAR. THUS, TRIMMED POPS BACK IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR LOW COVERAGE THROUGH 15Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY SEE A GLANCING BLOW AS
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD.
EXPANSION OF COVERAGE IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV
ANOMALY OVER MISSOURI WRAP INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING WILL BE AT THEIR GREATEST. HOWEVER,
ALL LOCATIONS CAN STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF 1.2+" PWATS.
SUPERPOSITION OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT AROUND 18Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THAT
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL EXIST, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN
ISOLATED AT BEST.
GOOD SIGNATURE IN THE HIGH RES MODELS OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, INDICATIVE OF AN AGGRESSIVE MASS
ADJUSTMENT TAKING PLACE. WHEN CONSIDERED ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND TIMING DURING PEAK HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO
MAXIMIZED MIXING DEPTHS, ADVISORY OR NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS
CERTAINLY SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL FROPA. THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE
APPRECIABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS
SOUTH. LIKEWISE, LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE A BIT OF A DELAY
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER WINDS FOR THIS REASON. COLD ADVECTION
WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
WINDS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 KTS BEING TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BY STRONG
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT FROM 275-285K.
ALL SURFACES WITHIN THIS 10K DEEP LAYER INTERSECT THE GROUND AND
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND COMPONENT TO
HELP MAXIMIZE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE STRONG WIND FIELD. COMBINED
WITH NAM PROGS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING WITHIN
THE MIXED LAYER IN SPITE OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP MIXING, A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS LIKE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION FOR AT LEAST THE 21-03Z PERIOD.
SAID ADVISORY WAS THEREFORE ISSUED BEGINNING WITH THE INITIAL FROPA
AND LASTING UNTIL COLD ADVECTION EASES AROUND MIDNIGHT.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEPART INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY AS LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC ADVANCING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TRAPPED UNDER A DEEP INVERSION SHOULD EQUATE TO
AMPLE CLOUD COVER SAT MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING TREND SAT AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN
WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS INTO THE 40S DESPITE A RATHER CHILLY START
TO THE DAY. A LINGERING NW GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER CAUSE RATHER BRISK
NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD SAT
NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT MINS
DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF SE MI. SOME MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS BY SUNDAY SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
SHOWN BY THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE...FEATURING A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WRN US AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTL AND
ERN US. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS
FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION SUNDAY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THERE ACTUALLY REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW
WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OVERSPREADS SE MI MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY NIGHT.
SEEING AS THIS SYSTEM WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GULF...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE DEFORMATION REGION AND THUS
HIGH POPS ARE JUSTIFIED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL HOLD WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN PRECIP TYPE AS ALL RAIN. THE GFS
DEEPENS THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
AND THUS HOLDS THE DEFORMATION FORCING OVER SE MI RIGHT INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS SOLUTIONS DOES OFFER THE POSSIBILITY THAT COOLING DUE
TO MELTING FROM PROLONGED PRECIP MAY CHANCE SOME LOCALS OVER TO SNOW
LATE MON NIGHT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS...SUPPORTING ALL RAIN AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN US
LONG WAVE RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL HOWEVER OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR
REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING TO NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM
AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ICY WATERS OF THE LAKES WILL INHIBIT THESE
STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE LAKE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTH OF THUNDER BAY WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND THUS MAKE SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
18Z. WINDS OVER LAKE HURON WILL THEN DECREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE SFC HIGH TRACKS OVERHEAD. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN LEAD TO A SHARP
INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THESE STRONGER WINDS...EXPECTED TO EXCEED
GALE FORCE AT TIMES...WILL FIRST REACH WRN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST
CLAIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER LAKE
HURON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON INTO SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-
MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
MIZ083...FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 4
PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON
INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
GALE WARNING...FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SFC LOW AT 3 AM WAS CENTERED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND WILL CONTINUE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...ENDING UP OVER NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS
EVENING. UPPER LOW TRAILS THE SFC LOW BACK ACROSS CENTRAL IA. AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW...SAW A STRONG DRY SLOT AND PV ANOMALY WORK UP INTO
SRN MN OVER TO WRN WI. THIS PV FEATURE HELPED ENHANCE FGEN IN THE
H7-H6 LAYER...WHICH RESULTED IN AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP
LAST NIGHT FROM ABOUT SPRINGFIELD...THROUGH CENTRAL MCLEOD
COUNTY...UP THE HENNEPIN/WRIGHT COUNTY LINE AND ON UP TOWARD
PRINCETON. WE GOT A REPORT OF 10 INCHES ALREADY FROM HUTCHINSON AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOMEONE IN THIS BAND PICKED UP A FOOT
OVERNIGHT. OVERLAYING RAP H7-H6 FGEN ON TO RADAR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...YOU COULD SEE THIS BAND START TO WEAKEN AROUND 8Z AS THE
FGEN STARTED TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...AS THIS AREA OF FGEN WAS
WEAKENING...THE RAP HAS BEEN SHOWING ANOTHER BAND OF ENHANCED FGEN
IN THE H7-H6 LAYER DEVELOPING FROM ALBERT LEA UP TOWARD RICE LAKE.
SINCE 3 AM...THIS SECOND ZONE OF FGEN HAS SHOWN RADAR RETURNS/SNOW
RAPIDLY BLOSSOM AND TRIED TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THE RAP/HRRR WITH A
SECONDARY BAND OF ENHANCED QPF SNOW COMING OUT OF SE MN AND UP ALONG
THE MN/WI BORDER. FOR THIS NEWER BAND OF SNOW...WITH THE SFC LOW NOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE IT WILL NOT LINGER AS LONG
AS THE MAIN BAND OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD STILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING WITH IT.
MAIN CHANGE IN THE GRIDS WITH POPS WAS TO SPEED UP THEIR DEPARTURE
OUT OF THE AREA...BRINGING IT IN LINE WITH THE HRRR/RAP. EXPECT BACK
EDGE OF SNOW TO CLEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AND WILL
EXIT THE ERN CWA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. FOR THE EXISTING WINTER
HEADLINES...CHANGED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED ENDING OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH AREAS WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES NOW EXPIRING
AT 15Z...COUNTIES AROUND THE METRO ENDING AT 18Z AND WRN WI STILL
ENDING AT 00Z. IN ALL CASES...THIS IS PROBABLY STILL A LITTLE LONGER
THAN NECESSARY...BUT WE CAN JUST CANCEL COUNTIES EARLY AS SNOW ENDS
AS WE HAVE BEEN DOING ALL NIGHT. THESE NEW END TIMES JUST GET THE
END TIMES FOR THE HEADLINES CLOSER TO WHAT REALITY WILL LIKELY BE.
OTHER MINOR CHANGE MADE IN THE GRIDS WAS TO NUDGE WINDS SPEEDS/GUSTS
DOWN A BIT THROUGH THE DAY AS OUR GRIDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT
STRONG ALL NIGHT. JUST BROUGHT SPEEDS MORE IN LINE WITH BIAS
CORRECTED SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS. STILL SHOULD GET SOME
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH IN SC/SE MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
PULLS IN SRN WI. FORTUNATELY...WET/HEAVY OF NATURE OF THE SNOW
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP HOLD IT TO THE GROUND...SO CONTINUED TO NOT
MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS.
PERHAPS BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS WITH CLOUD
COVER TRENDS. MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING THINGS OUT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A QUICK LOOK AT SATELLITE
THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID BANK OF STRATUS IN PLACE ALL THE WAY BACK
TO THE AXIS OF THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. SO FOR
GRIDS...WENT CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH CLEARING OF
SKIES TODAY...DELAYING THAT UNTIL THE SFC RIDGE STARTS MOVING INTO
WRN MN AND KICKING OUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE CLEARING STARTS...IT SHOULD MOVE PRETTY QUICK TONIGHT. WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND...CONTINUED
TO GO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CWA
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RAIN/SNOW CHANCES WERE KEPT TO THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN FA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN EXPANDED CWA
WIDE FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG EVENT
WITH ONLY MINOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN PASSING TO THE EAST DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH LOWS/HIGHS ACTUALLY
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. WEDNESDAY WAS A DAY OF INTEREST WITH
BOTH THE EC AND GFS 850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 12
DEG C ACROSS WESTERN MN. MIX DOWN OF THE GFS FROM 900MB INDICATED
HIGHS NEAR 70 FOR THE CANBY AND MADISON AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MN.
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES YIELDED AN UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE MID/LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES OVER THE CR EXTEND
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...TIME OVERNIGHT WAS SPENT HELPING THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER WITH THE ONGOING SNOW EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
TWO PROBLEMS AT HAND THIS TAF PERIOD ARE TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF
SNOW OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WHEN DO CIGS GO VFR. BACK
EDGE OF PRECIP STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE WRN TWIN CITIES METRO
AND WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN WI AROUND 15Z. TRENDED TIMING FOR END
OF SNOW TOWARD THE HRRR. VSBYS WITH THIS LAST BAND HAVE BEEN
MAINLY 1-2SM...SO NOT EXPECTING MANY MORE 1/2SM TYPE SNOWS. CLOUD
COVER IS A BIT MORE TRICKY AS STRATUS EXTENDS BACK INTO THE WRN
DAKOTAS...BUT THE HRRR IS DRIVING A CLEARING DOWN BEHIND THE SNOW
LATER TODAY. FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE GFSLAMP WITH MVFR
CIGS HANGING BACK A WHILE...BUT AS I WRITE THIS...CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO CLEAR OUT UP TOWARD PARK RAPIDS AND BEMIDJI...SO THE
HRRR COULD VERY WELL BE ON TO SOMETHING. FOR TONIGHT...THE SFC
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE SKIES AND GIVE
US LGT AND VRB WINDS...THOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD
THE SSW WEST OVER WRN MN LATE TONIGHT.
KMSP...WILL HAVE ONE MORE IFR VIS BAND OF SNOW WORK THROUGH THE
AIRPORT THIS MORNING. BASED ON ITS CURRENT SPEED...WILL BE EAST OF
MSP BETWEEN 1300 AND 1330Z. AFTER THAT...SNOW WILL SLOWLY TAPER
OFF AND SHOULD BE DOWN BY NOON. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR SAYING IT WILL CLEAR OUT TEMPORARILY
AROUND 19Z BEFORE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN CLOSER TO 00Z. FOR
NOW...STUCK WITH THE GFSLAMP STORY OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING THROUGH
00Z. NO ISSUES EXPECTED WITH REST OF TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 5-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-RASN LATE. WINDS SW 5-10KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR/-RA. WINDS N 10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ052-
053-060>063-068>070-076-077.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ049.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ044-045-
050-051-058-059-065>067-073>075-082-083-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ084-
085-092-093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ078.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ014>016-
023>025-027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ026-
028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
855 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
FOG APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AND WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE PARAMETERS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AND
DEACTIVATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM OUR WEBSITE. REST
OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO SET UP OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING...MAINLY
FROM BAKER SOUTHWARD TO ALZADA. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BREAKING
UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
MOVES. HRRR ALSO INDICATING FOG TO BREAK UP BY 15Z. WEAK GAP FLOW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA. SURFACE
TROUGH JUST WEST OF BILLINGS IS CAUSING PRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF
LIVINGSTON WHILE WEAK PRESSURE RISES WERE NOTED OVER YELLOWSTONE
PARK. THIS IS ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH IN LIVINGSTON.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES CYCLONIC. THIS FLOW
WILL ALLOW SEVERAL MORE WAVES TO DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
SHORT WAVE TOMORROW WILL BE MORE VIGOROUS THAN TODAYS WAVE AND
HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY. WAVE WILL BE FAST MOVING AND ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF NEW SNOW.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/S RUNS...THE MODELS WERE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN UNTIL WED. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED WILL
FEATURE UNSETTLED PERIODS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON SUN
THROUGH EARLY MON...A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. BASED ON THE CAPE FORECASTS...THIS WAVE
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A CHANCE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL WAIT TIL THIS PERIOD GETS
CLOSER BEFORE ADDING ANY THUNDER. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BASED ON MIXING TO
700 MB ON TUE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 70 DEGREES IN
MANY AREAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE TOWARD
THE AREA ON WED...BUT THE ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF BROUGHT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE GFS DELAYED
THE FRONT UNTIL WED NIGHT. BASED ON THIS TIMING UNCERTAINTY...WENT
WITH A MIX OF THE CONSALL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO UNCERTAIN FOR WED SO WENT WITH A GUIDANCE
COMPROMISE FOR THOSE AS WELL. FOR THU INTO FRI...THE ECMWF TRIED
TO REBUILD A RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS HAD AN UNSETTLED W
TO NW FLOW. GIVEN THIS CONTINUED PATTERN UNCERTAINTY...WENT WITH
MODEL COMPROMISES FOR THE FORECAST. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD E TO
A RED LODGE TO KBIL TO FORSYTH LINE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN SNOW
SHOWERS MIX WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION OVER THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NE BIG HORNS WILL HAVE LOCALIZED OBSCURATION
LATE TONIGHT. ARTHUR/HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 035/053 035/052 035/058 038/070 043/066 040/060
0/B 22/W 34/W 32/W 01/U 01/B 21/B
LVM 055 034/050 034/049 033/054 036/064 040/064 038/058
2/W 32/W 36/W 22/W 01/N 12/W 22/W
HDN 055 030/054 031/055 034/060 034/071 039/068 038/060
0/B 12/W 34/W 32/W 01/B 02/W 21/B
MLS 054 031/055 032/054 033/056 033/070 041/068 038/058
0/B 12/W 23/W 22/W 01/B 01/U 21/B
4BQ 053 030/055 031/055 032/056 032/070 038/067 036/058
0/U 02/W 33/W 32/W 01/B 11/U 21/B
BHK 048 029/054 030/055 031/052 030/066 039/065 036/055
0/B 11/B 23/W 22/W 01/B 01/U 21/B
SHR 054 028/052 030/052 031/054 032/067 037/066 036/058
0/U 02/W 33/W 32/W 01/B 11/U 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1012 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
TEMPS RISES ARE BEING SUPPRESSED UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD COVER. WHILE
BELIEVE OUR HIGH TEMPS LOOK GOOD...HAVE DECREASED THE HOURLY TEMP
CURVES PRIMARILY FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM /ESTF/ UPDATE TO THE FCST TO SLOW DOWN
THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRATUS. THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF WILL LINGER
OVER THE FCST AREA MUCH OF THE DAY...DESPITE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
IN.
MORE LATER...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
AFTER A RETURN OF WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY...QUIETER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH BROUGHT PCPN TO OUR REGION YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER IN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. IN ITS
WAKE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS TODAY.
MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL DEPART IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM
GIVING WAY TO SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
UPSWING TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW/MID 50S E/W. THE STEADY
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE SFC
HIGH SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTN. TONIGHT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLIDE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP STEADY TEMPERATURES NEAR 30F
FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS. CONSIDERED A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR OUR
EASTERN AREAS FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE RETURN IS ESTABLISHED DUE
TO GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND RECENT WET GROUND BUT MODELS DO
NOT SUPPORT THIS AND WILL MONITOR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REVOLVES
AROUND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE START OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...AS THE REGION SITS UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES/NERN CONUS AND ANOTHER MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...THOUGH THAT
DESERT SW SYSTEM CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY EAST. MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CREEPING
TOWARD WRN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT FEEL THAT BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OF UNTIL POST 00Z. EXPECTED A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHEN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...THOUGH EXPECT GUSTS TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DIDNT
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...WHICH ARE MAINLY
IN THE LOW/MID 60S...BUT DID TREND DOWN DEWPOINTS WITH MODELS
SHOWING WINDS OUT OF THE SW. DIDNT GO QUITE AS LOW AS SOME DATA
SUGGESTS...BUT AT LEAST TRENDED THAT WAY...AND WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
UPCOMING SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES DROPPED...BUT
AT ITS CURRENT FORECAST LOW POINT IS STILL ABOVE 25 PERCENT.
LOOKING TO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS IS THE TIME FRAME
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING IT
NOT BE A CLEAR CUT SYSTEM THAT JUST SWINGS THROUGH...RATHER IT
COMING FROM A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES. PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT
WITH THIS PERIOD AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT BY 12Z
SUNDAY THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT LEAD DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS /POSSIBLY
CLOSED OFF AT 700MB/ IS LAGGING JUST A BIT BEHIND. THAT MAIN TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS DURING THE DAY/EVENING ON
SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NRN ROCKIES. LIFT FROM THIS LATEST SYSTEM WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST
THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG RAIN OUT ACROSS THE AREA...RATHER KEEPING
QPF FIELDS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. JUST HARD TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC
DETAILS AT THIS POINT WITH TIMING/LOCATION. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEPING
THINGS ABOVE FREEZING. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR
NOW...THE MOST INSTABILITY SHOWN BY ANY MODEL IS 100-200 J/KG...AND
THERE ISNT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THAT. HIGHS FOR BOTH SUN/MON
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS ANYWHERE FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MORE AMPLIFIED N/NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS RIDGE DOES
BROADEN OUT A BIT...BUT SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES FOR
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST FLATTENS IT OUT
ENOUGH THAT FLOW OVER THE AREA IS MAINLY ZONAL. WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE AXIS...AND CURRENTLY EXPECTED HIGHS ON
TUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH WED/THURS MORE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
TIMING OF DECREASING CLOUDS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF THIS
MORNING. MVFR CIGS HAVE HELD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE HRRR SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER THE BEST AND HAVE USED THIS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD. THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
RAISED CIGS TO VFR BEFORE CLEARING SKIES AROUND MID DAY. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
742 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SENT AN ENHANCED SHORT TERM /ESTF/ UPDATE TO THE FCST TO SLOW DOWN
THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRATUS. THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF WILL LINGER
OVER THE FCST AREA MUCH OF THE DAY...DESPITE THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
IN.
MORE LATER...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
AFTER A RETURN OF WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY...QUIETER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH BROUGHT PCPN TO OUR REGION YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER IN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. IN ITS
WAKE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS TODAY.
MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL DEPART IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM
GIVING WAY TO SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
UPSWING TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW/MID 50S E/W. THE STEADY
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE SFC
HIGH SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTN. TONIGHT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLIDE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP STEADY TEMPERATURES NEAR 30F
FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS. CONSIDERED A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR OUR
EASTERN AREAS FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE RETURN IS ESTABLISHED DUE
TO GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND RECENT WET GROUND BUT MODELS DO
NOT SUPPORT THIS AND WILL MONITOR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REVOLVES
AROUND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE START OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...AS THE REGION SITS UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES/NERN CONUS AND ANOTHER MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...THOUGH THAT
DESERT SW SYSTEM CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY EAST. MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CREEPING
TOWARD WRN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT FEEL THAT BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OF UNTIL POST 00Z. EXPECTED A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHEN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...THOUGH EXPECT GUSTS TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DIDNT
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...WHICH ARE MAINLY
IN THE LOW/MID 60S...BUT DID TREND DOWN DEWPOINTS WITH MODELS
SHOWING WINDS OUT OF THE SW. DIDNT GO QUITE AS LOW AS SOME DATA
SUGGESTS...BUT AT LEAST TRENDED THAT WAY...AND WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
UPCOMING SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES DROPPED...BUT
AT ITS CURRENT FORECAST LOW POINT IS STILL ABOVE 25 PERCENT.
LOOKING TO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS IS THE TIME FRAME
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING IT
NOT BE A CLEAR CUT SYSTEM THAT JUST SWINGS THROUGH...RATHER IT
COMING FROM A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES. PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT
WITH THIS PERIOD AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT BY 12Z
SUNDAY THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT LEAD DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS /POSSIBLY
CLOSED OFF AT 700MB/ IS LAGGING JUST A BIT BEHIND. THAT MAIN TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS DURING THE DAY/EVENING ON
SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NRN ROCKIES. LIFT FROM THIS LATEST SYSTEM WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST
THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG RAIN OUT ACROSS THE AREA...RATHER KEEPING
QPF FIELDS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. JUST HARD TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC
DETAILS AT THIS POINT WITH TIMING/LOCATION. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEPING
THINGS ABOVE FREEZING. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR
NOW...THE MOST INSTABILITY SHOWN BY ANY MODEL IS 100-200 J/KG...AND
THERE ISNT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THAT. HIGHS FOR BOTH SUN/MON
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS ANYWHERE FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MORE AMPLIFIED N/NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS RIDGE DOES
BROADEN OUT A BIT...BUT SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES FOR
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST FLATTENS IT OUT
ENOUGH THAT FLOW OVER THE AREA IS MAINLY ZONAL. WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE AXIS...AND CURRENTLY EXPECTED HIGHS ON
TUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH WED/THURS MORE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
TIMING OF DECREASING CLOUDS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF THIS
MORNING. MVFR CIGS HAVE HELD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE HRRR SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER THE BEST AND HAVE USED THIS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD. THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
RAISED CIGS TO VFR BEFORE CLEARING SKIES AROUND MID DAY. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
525 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
AFTER A RETURN OF WINTRY WEATHER THURSDAY...QUIETER WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH BROUGHT PCPN TO OUR REGION YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER IN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. IN ITS
WAKE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS TODAY.
MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL DEPART IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM
GIVING WAY TO SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
UPSWING TODAY BUT WILL REMAIN SHY OF SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW/MID 50S E/W. THE STEADY
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE SFC
HIGH SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTN. TONIGHT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLIDE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP STEADY TEMPERATURES NEAR 30F
FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS. CONSIDERED A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR OUR
EASTERN AREAS FOR A TIME TONIGHT BEFORE RETURN IS ESTABLISHED DUE
TO GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND RECENT WET GROUND BUT MODELS DO
NOT SUPPORT THIS AND WILL MONITOR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REVOLVES
AROUND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE START OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING SHOWS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...AS THE REGION SITS UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES/NERN CONUS AND ANOTHER MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...THOUGH THAT
DESERT SW SYSTEM CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY EAST. MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CREEPING
TOWARD WRN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT FEEL THAT BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OF UNTIL POST 00Z. EXPECTED A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHEN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...THOUGH EXPECT GUSTS TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. DIDNT
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...WHICH ARE MAINLY
IN THE LOW/MID 60S...BUT DID TREND DOWN DEWPOINTS WITH MODELS
SHOWING WINDS OUT OF THE SW. DIDNT GO QUITE AS LOW AS SOME DATA
SUGGESTS...BUT AT LEAST TRENDED THAT WAY...AND WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
UPCOMING SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES DROPPED...BUT
AT ITS CURRENT FORECAST LOW POINT IS STILL ABOVE 25 PERCENT.
LOOKING TO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS IS THE TIME FRAME
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING IT
NOT BE A CLEAR CUT SYSTEM THAT JUST SWINGS THROUGH...RATHER IT
COMING FROM A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES. PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT
WITH THIS PERIOD AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT BY 12Z
SUNDAY THE GENERAL STORY IS THAT LEAD DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS /POSSIBLY
CLOSED OFF AT 700MB/ IS LAGGING JUST A BIT BEHIND. THAT MAIN TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS DURING THE DAY/EVENING ON
SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NRN ROCKIES. LIFT FROM THIS LATEST SYSTEM WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST
THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG RAIN OUT ACROSS THE AREA...RATHER KEEPING
QPF FIELDS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. JUST HARD TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC
DETAILS AT THIS POINT WITH TIMING/LOCATION. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS KEEPING
THINGS ABOVE FREEZING. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT FOR
NOW...THE MOST INSTABILITY SHOWN BY ANY MODEL IS 100-200 J/KG...AND
THERE ISNT THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THAT. HIGHS FOR BOTH SUN/MON
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS ANYWHERE FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MORE AMPLIFIED N/NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS RIDGE DOES
BROADEN OUT A BIT...BUT SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ROCKIES FOR
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST FLATTENS IT OUT
ENOUGH THAT FLOW OVER THE AREA IS MAINLY ZONAL. WARMER AIR ALOFT
WILL ACCOMPANYING THIS RIDGE AXIS...AND CURRENTLY EXPECTED HIGHS ON
TUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH WED/THURS MORE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
TIMING OF DECREASING CLOUDS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF THIS
MORNING. MVFR CIGS HAVE HELD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE HRRR SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUD COVER THE BEST AND HAVE USED THIS FOR THE
TAF PERIOD. THE MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
RAISED CIGS TO VFR BEFORE CLEARING SKIES AROUND MID DAY. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE TRANSITIONING SOUTHERLY TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY...AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM FRIDAY...
AT 14Z...A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER...THOUGH
DURING THE DAY THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z KGSO
SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY BELOW ABOUT 500MB...AND AT THAT LEVEL THERE
WAS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT THAT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE FAIRLY
NUMEROUS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MID-TO-LATE MORNING.
RAP PLAN VIEW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS AND ITS SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT THIS MORNING IN SUGGESTING THESE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
THIN AND BREAK SOME AS DRIER AIR AT 500MB MOVES INTO THE AREA
BRIEFLY. IF THIS OCCURS AS FORECAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH CLOSE TO EXPECT HIGHS...AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME GUSTY
TO AROUND 30KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAP SOUNDINGS TOWARD KRWI SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS ACTUALLY JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
30KT...AND IF MIXING IS REALIZED A GUST OR TWO IN THE UPPER 30S MPH
IS NOT UNREASONABLE WITH 925MB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 30
TO 35KT.
RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT STABLE THIS AFTERNOON. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WITH SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD THE
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BORDER SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AROUND 22Z OR SO. 850MB DIVERGENCE IS PREVALENT THROUGH THEN...AND
THEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES START TO INCREASE TO 1.4 INCHES...AND
MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST KM RISES TO AROUND 300J/KG WHILE A 500MB JETLET
AROUND 60KT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
REALIZED IN THE COLUMN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF
THE WRF GUIDANCE IS LIMITED ON THE AMOUNT AND STRENGTH OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IT MAY BE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
A MORE VIGOROUS SHOWER OR STORM COULD BE NEAR THE RETREATING
BOUNDARY...ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER...GIVEN
ENOUGH HEATING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONTAL CONVECTION IS APT TO BE WEAKER DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE
DIURNAL TIMING. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED ALL BUT PERHAPS THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL
PLAIN BY 12Z...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER AND DRIER AIR AND LOWS IN THE
50S...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES NEAR THE PASSING FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPEPR MIDWEST AND
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IN
WNW POST-FRONTAL FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD. HIGHS 70-75 AND
LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON SUNDAY AS
INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERRUNS THE CAD WEDGE THAT WILL BE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA. DURING THE DAY
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MID
MISS VALLEY NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE...A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE TN VALLEY MONDAY
MORNING...NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY EVENING...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING THE START OF THE
LIGHT RAIN IN THIS PATTERN...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL
BE LOWERING AND THICKENING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOPING NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
START OF THE STEADIER RAIN HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST STRATIFORM RAIN
OCCURRING BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY AS 750-850 MB FLOW INCREASES TO 40-
50KT AND OVERRUNS THE ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL WEDGE AIRMASS. THE MAIN
QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW QUICKLY AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE WEDGE
ERODES...HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS EAST OF THE WEDGE...AND
ASSOC SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL. MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE ERODING AND
THE ASSOC BOUNDARY PULLING BACK NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN 18Z MON
AND 00Z TUE...WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 00-06Z TUE.
HOWEVER...ITS WELL NOTED THAT THE MODELS TEND TO UNDERPLAY THE
STABILITY OF THE WEDGE AND TEND TO ERODE IT TOO QUICKLY. ASSUMING
THAT THE WEDGE WILL INDEED ERODE WITH TIME LATE MONDAY...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LATE-DAY CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR E/SE ZONES WHERE
THE BEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE FOUND...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM ALBEMARLE TO DURHAM TO HENDERSON. WIND FIELDS IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT IF THE INSTABILITY IS ADEQUATE...WE`LL HAVE
TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CELLS.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF OUR CWA BEFORE SUNRISE
TUESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF DRYING IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA...AND WON`T COMPLETELY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE WON`T BE PLENTIFUL...THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. ONCE THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A RIDGE TO
BUILD BACK OVER OUR AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WON`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM NORMAL.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHEN CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY
HOLD TEMPS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT (INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
TRIAD) IN THE UPPER 50S...AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1040 AM FRIDAY...
MAINLY VFR. A WARM SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS AROUND 14 OR 15Z...IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOWNSTREAM OF A LOW STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS AROUND
30KT POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH MIXING TAKES PLACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY AFFECT TRIAD TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z-00Z...BEFORE WEAKENING
FURTHER AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS OVER
EAST-CENTRAL NC. AN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 10Z.
OUTLOOK: A DRIER AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND RAIN/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUN NIGHT-MON.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...DJF/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...DJF/MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
931 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OVER LAKE MANITOBA DOWN THROUGH
WALL...SD WITH SOME CLEARING NOW EDGING INTO NORTHWESTERN BENSON
COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF CLEAR SKIES THAT IS ACTUALLY
EXPANDING OVER LAKE OF THE WOOD DOWN THROUGH FAR EASTERN OTTER
TAIL COUNTY. ESTF SKY TOOL DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS AND WILL
USE IT FOR SKY TRENDS...WITH RUC H925-H850 RH PICKING UP ON SOME
OF THESE AREAS OF DRIER LL MOISTURE AS WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY TEMPS OVER THESE EASTERN ZONES AS FOREST EFFECT MAY CAUSE
WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FCST AS THEY ARE ALREADY CLEAR. WILL
SEE HOW NEXT COUPLE SETS OF OBS COME IN BEFORE ADJUSTING TOO
MUCH AS CLOUDS TO THE WEST MAY ADVECT OVER AREA (RUC DOES SHOW
THIS AREA FILLING IN). OTHER THAN THAT...NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH
LOW POPS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER AS NAM KEEPS SOUTHERN EXTEND OF ANY
PRECIP AROUND WINNIPEG. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES IN...AND IF IT IS
UNIMPRESSIVE AS WELL WILL LIKELY PULL POPS IN THIS AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LAST COUPLE HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP STRATUS DECK OVER THE FA THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND WILL ADJUST
LITTLE FOR THIS UPDATE. A COOL AND CLOUDY FRIDAY WITH SOME MORNING
FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE FOR THE VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUD TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE FA.
CLOUDS THE MAIN PLAYER WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AS FLURRY/DRIZZLE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE WITH AREA METARS SHOWING VSBYS
ALL HIGHER THAN 5SM. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY
SATURATED BLYR TODAY EXPECTING STRATUS DECK TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
THE VALLEY. COULD BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE HIGHER EAST AND
WEST PORTIONS OF THE FA SCT OUT FIRST AND THE VALLEYS TOPOGRAPHY
SLOWS EROSION OF THE STRATUS DECK. SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME SCT-BKN CIGS LATE AFTN.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING FOR
SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 5C IN THE WEST TO 1C IN THE EAST
WITH SOME SOLAR AND FAVORABLE SW WARMING SFC WIND. SHOULD MELT
SNOW AND REACH INTO THE 40S HWY 200 SOUTH AND FLIRT WITH 40 WHERE
SNOWPACK IS DEEPER WITH MN TREES WARMING EFFICIENTLY TO NEAR 50.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
WEAK FROPA TO BRING CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
SAT PM. DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH AXIS CROSSING THE FA.
ANOTHER SNOW MELTING DAY IF WE CAN MAINTAIN GOOD SUN. MAY HAVE TO
BURN OF SOME FOG GIVEN WEAK SFC WINDS SUN AM.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS CANADA. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY (WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CANADIAN SYSTEM)...THEN BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY.
THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FAST MOVING WEAK UPPER WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ALONG ON THE VALLEY WITH IMPROVING CIGS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN
EDGES. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CIGS INTO THE 2 TO 3K
FT RANGE WITH SOME SCT CU BY 00-02Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
914 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 AM MDT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WX CAMS
INDICATE VISIBILITIES IMPROVING IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER KDIK AND
KHEI ARE STILL A QUARTER AND HALF MILE RESPECTIVELY. WILL CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY FOR NOW AND CAN ALWAYS DROP IT EARLY IF VISIBILITIES
REBOUND QUICKLY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH STRATUS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AND WEST TO EAST. MADE SOME MINOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE. COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST LAST
NIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEARED BEFORE FOG DEVELOPED. ADJUSTED MORNING
TEMPERATURE RISE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD START.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
RECENT SNOW COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RADIATE INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRESH SURFACE MOISTURE SOURCE AND
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES
ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHERE THE
SKY HAS CLEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. ONE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY IS BEING REPORTED AT DICKINSON...BEACH AND IN BAKER
MONTANA. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOW DENSE FOG IN BELFIELD AND BOWMAN. WILL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 16Z. HETTINGER IS
NEARING A CLEAR POCKET AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE TRYING TO FORECAST
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. THE HRRR SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECAST
SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UP UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z.
THEREAFTER...MIXING ENSUES AND CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CANADA
FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLICING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THE
BEST FORCING RESIDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE GEM/GFS AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW
FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SATURDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP OCCURRING...SO THINK IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL.
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
STATEWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS (THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET) IS FORECAST TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ECMWF) OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (GFS). FOR NOW INDICATED A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 7 FORECAST. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KDIK UNTIL 16Z. EXPECT
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z...AND VFR BY 18Z.
ELSEWHERE...KISN AND KMOT HAVE CLEARED...WITH MVFR CEILINGS
REMAINING FOR KBIS AND KJMS. KBIS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS
THROUGH AROUND 18Z WITH KJMS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS UNTIL 21Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ031>033-
040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
646 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LAST COUPLE HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP STRATUS DECK OVER THE FA THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND WILL ADJUST
LITTLE FOR THIS UPDATE. A COOL AND CLOUDY FRIDAY WITH SOME MORNING
FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE FOR THE VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUD TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE FA.
CLOUDS THE MAIN PLAYER WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AS FLURRY/DRIZZLE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE WITH AREA METARS SHOWING VSBYS
ALL HIGHER THAN 5SM. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY
SATURATED BLYR TODAY EXPECTING STRATUS DECK TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
THE VALLEY. COULD BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE HIGHER EAST AND
WEST PORTIONS OF THE FA SCT OUT FIRST AND THE VALLEYS TOPOGRAPHY
SLOWS EROSION OF THE STRATUS DECK. SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME SCT-BKN CIGS LATE AFTN.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING FOR
SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 5C IN THE WEST TO 1C IN THE EAST
WITH SOME SOLAR AND FAVORABLE SW WARMING SFC WIND. SHOULD MELT
SNOW AND REACH INTO THE 40S HWY 200 SOUTH AND FLIRT WITH 40 WHERE
SNOWPACK IS DEEPER WITH MN TREES WARMING EFFICIENTLY TO NEAR 50.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
WEAK FROPA TO BRING CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
SAT PM. DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH AXIS CROSSING THE FA.
ANOTHER SNOW MELTING DAY IF WE CAN MAINTAIN GOOD SUN. MAY HAVE TO
BURN OF SOME FOG GIVEN WEAK SFC WINDS SUN AM.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS CANADA. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY (WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CANADIAN SYSTEM)...THEN BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY.
THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FAST MOVING WEAK UPPER WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ALONG ON THE VALLEY WITH IMPROVING CIGS ON THE WEST AND EASTERN
EDGES. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CIGS INTO THE 2 TO 3K
FT RANGE WITH SOME SCT CU BY 00-02Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
RECENT SNOW COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RADIATE INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRESH SURFACE MOISTURE SOURCE AND
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES
ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHERE THE
SKY HAS CLEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. ONE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY IS BEING REPORTED AT DICKINSON...BEACH AND IN BAKER
MONTANA. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOW DENSE FOG IN BELFIELD AND BOWMAN. WILL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 16Z. HETTINGER IS
NEARING A CLEAR POCKET AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE TRYING TO FORECAST
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. THE HRRR SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECAST
SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UP UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z.
THEREAFTER...MIXING ENSUES AND CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CANADA
FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLICING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THE
BEST FORCING RESIDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE GEM/GFS AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW
FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SATURDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP OCCURRING...SO THINK IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL.
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
STATEWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS (THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET) IS FORECAST TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ECMWF) OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (GFS). FOR NOW INDICATED A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 7 FORECAST. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOST
TERMINALS IN MVFR STATUS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500FT AND 2500FT. KDIK
IS HAS THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR KDIK UNTIL 16Z. EXPECT A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z...AND VFR BY 18Z.
ELSEWHERE...KISN AND KMOT HAVE BEEN ON THE EDGE OF MVFR CIGS FOR
MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECTING THESE TAF SITES TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. KBIS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS THROUGH
18Z WITH KJMS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS UNTIL 21Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ031>033-
040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
641 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY AROUND 12Z IN OUR FAR EAST.
QUITE A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS UPSTREAM...AND HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST
THIS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...FEEL THAT EVEN IF WE DID GET SOME SUNNY BREAKS...WE WOULD
MIX AND STRATOCU WOULD REFORM. THUS THINKING TODAY IS A MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME CLEARING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BY
LATER IN THE DAY. SOME FLURRIES ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING
OUT OF THE STRATUS...MAYBE EVEN A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
THE SATURATION DEPTH DECREASES AND WE POTENTIALLY LOSE ICE FORMATION
IN THE CLOUDS. THINK MOST OF THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY...WITH 25 TO 35 KTS AT
925 MB THIS MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE...BUT GIVEN
THE BEST PRESSURE RISES STAY EAST OF THE AREA AND THE STRATUS
LIMITING MIXING...THINK WE WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW...SUSTAINED 20
TO 30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. GIVEN THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...DO
NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BLOWING
SNOW...BUT SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS COINCIDE.
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WENT
ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE WE HAVE SNOW COVER...WHERE TEENS SEEM PROBABLE. A WEAK WAVE
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY TO GET ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE GROUND. BUT THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
STEADY OFF OR SLOWLY RISE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SOMEWHAT DIRTY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS SMALL PIECES OF
ENERGY BREAK AWAY FROM FROM ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY IS CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH IN AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH...BUT SOME ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE
TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
QUITE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.
GIVEN THIS IS THE CASE...THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS...SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID.
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE UP THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. WITH DEEPENING
LOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS
THROUGHOUT THE THE DAY.
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST 925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO
THE LOWERS 20S...AND HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS....BUT POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH IF WE ARE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY MIX. COULD BE THE WARMEST
DAY SINCE EARLY OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOTCHING 925 HPA TEMPS BACK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WITH DRY ENVIRONMENT...AM EXPECTING DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH COOLER YET UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING UP LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SEEING IFR
TO MVFR CIGS. GOOD COVERAGE OF STRATUS UPSTREAM...AND THUS THINK OUR
TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING OF THIS.
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30 KTS AT KFSD AND
KSUX...BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...WE COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THUS DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FOG MENTION
IN. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING LATE...TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
BEST FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...SO ONLY KEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ080-081-
089-090.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ014-
021-022-032.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ002-003-
013.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
345 PM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...A FEW ECHOES SHOWING UP ON THE 1.5 DEGREE SCAN OVER
NORTHERN PARK COUNTY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN CLEAR CREEK COUNTY BOUNDARY
WHERE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS COMBINING WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. LATEST RAP SHOWS THESE WEAK SHOWERS
DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS BY THIS EVENING WITH
OTHER SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THESE
SHOWERS TO REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY HIGH BASED WITH MINIMAL RAIN OR
SNOW OCCURRING AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES AND LOCAL UPSLOPE WEAKENS. ALONG NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS...WAVE CLOUD HAD DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART
WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S. STILL SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL UPSTREAM WHICH WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. WEAK LIFT INCREASES ACROSS MOUNTAINS
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MINS FAIRLY MILD IN VALLEY AREAS. ON
SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES DURING THE MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD COLORADO. MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND DEEPENS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
MID LEVEL AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BETTER CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.
PLAINS TO REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. MOST OF
THE LIFT STAYS SOUTH OF COLORADO WITH ONLY WEAK OROGRAPHICS WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. BUT DECENT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. DID BUMP
THE MOUNTAIN POPS MOST LOCATIONS AS A RESULT. WITH LACK OF
OROGRAPHICS...SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. ACROSS PLAINS...MODELS
SHOW WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK
UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. WITH THE INCREASING
LIFT AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES...SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHERE THE UPSLOPE WILL
OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN. TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY`S READINGS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...BROAD TROUGH MOVES ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY...KEEPING A
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THERE IS SOME COOLING ALOFT
SO THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING SNOW TO THE SURFACE ON THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH STILL AT FAIRLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE PRETTY LOCALIZED AS
SNOW FROM THE LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MELT. MODELS STILL
TRENDING A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING ONTO THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF US THOUGH...BUT MAYBE BETTER COOLING AND MORE WIND.
SOME SHOWERS ALREADY GOT ADDED FOR MONDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY SHORT LIVED...PERHAPS JUST A LINE OF SHOWERS EARLY
MONDAY...THEN RAPID WARMING ALOFT/DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. ECMWF STILL HAS ALL THIS A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH
LESS IMPACT THAN WHAT THE GFS SHOWS...AND RAPID CLEARING DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.
WARM RIDGE COMES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY IS STILL
LOOKING PRETTY DRY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD WARMING...ONLY
CONCERN IS IF SOME CLOUDS COME IN BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE IT AT THIS
POINT. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED THINGS UP A LITTLE OVER GUIDANCE
AGAIN...COULD WIND UP AROUND 80 IF NOTHING MESSES IT UP. A
SHORTWAVE WELL NORTH OF US SHOULD FLATTEN THE RIDGE BY
THURSDAY...AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER WAVE COMING OVER IN THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. ECMWF HAS INSISTED ON A BIT STRONGER
FRONT THURSDAY...AND HAS A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN IN THE LATEST RUN.
BUT DETAILS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE. NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME COOLING IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS IN ORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...WAVE CLOUD HAD DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...STILL
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE DECREASING BY 01Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL. WINDS
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...THEN BECOME
NORTHEAST AFTER 18Z AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE CEILINGS
AROUND 6000 FEET AGL BY 21Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE EVENING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
200 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING...THEN PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT 12Z NAM/14Z RUC/14Z HRRR IDEA OF
CURRENT BATCH OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN DISSIPATING UNDER THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE AREA OF RAIN OF W/CENTRAL PA BEING SLOW TO
PROGRESS E. AS A RESULT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS INTO EARLY
EVENING.
WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS AND ONSHORE FLOW -
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT MOVE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR SO FROM CURRENT
LEVELS AT MOST AREAS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TREK TOWARD THE REGION. AS IT DOES
SO...A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE RATHER LIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NY. STORM TOTAL QPF IS ANYWHERE FROM A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MORNING. A DOWN SLOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR
SATURDAY. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE PARENT LOW IN CANADA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT. WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. A ZONAL UPPER FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...GIVE WAY TO A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING AND PUSHING TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD.
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON THIS AMPLIFICATION...WITH
SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES LYING IN TIMING OF PAC SHORTWAVE AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY PHASING WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AS WELL AS
UPSTREAM RIDGING. THIS PLAYS OUT IN SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK/TIMING OF RESULTANT STRONG LOW PRESSURE TUE INTO WED...WHICH
FIRST EMERGES FROM THE SW GULF STATES SUN NIGHT...TRACKS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY MON NIGHT...AND THEN UP THOUGH THE NORTHEAST OR ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUE/WED. WITH A GULF MOISTURE FEED AND STRONG
DYNAMICS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 1+ INCH RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM
LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TOWARDS MAINLY A
RAIN EVENT. HAVE TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO CAT FOR MON NIGHT
BASED ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY. BASED ON
SETUP...EXPECTATION IS FOR TAPERING POPS TUES MORNING BEHIND COLD
FRONT. THEN INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKELY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
TUE AFT AND ONCE AGAIN WED AFT...COMBINED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AS DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH.
BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE REGION ON SUN. ON MONDAY...INCREASING
CLOUDS...DEVELOPING AFT RAIN AND DEVELOPING BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY LIMIT TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT WED WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION HOLDING A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE...BUT
THEN LIKELY MODERATING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING DIMINISHING
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WITH THE WINDS. ESE FLOW WITH GUSTS 18-25 KTS
INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT...THEN
INCREASE FROM THE WNW AFTER 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.
VARYING MVFR/VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
CIGS/VIS DECREASING AS RAIN MOVES IN THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS/VIS MOVE
IN AFTER 00Z WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH A MORE PERSISTENT RAIN
AFTER 21Z. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO BE 22-05Z WITH DRIZZLE THEN
LINGERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EXPECTING FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE...SO COULD SEE VIS DROP BELOW 1
SM AT SOME SPOTS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS PSBL WITH PERIODIC LIGHT PCPN
THIS AFTN. START TIME OF HEAVIER PCPN THIS EVENING MAY BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE THROUGH
21Z. START TIME OF HEAVIER PCPN THIS EVENING MAY BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS PSBL WITH PERIODIC LIGHT PCPN
THIS AFTN. START TIME OF HEAVIER PCPN THIS EVENING MAY BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS PSBL WITH PERIODIC LIGHT PCPN
THIS AFTN. START TIME OF HEAVIER PCPN THIS EVENING MAY BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE THIS AFTN.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCNL IN NATURE THIS AFTN.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT AFTN-NIGHT...VFR. W WINDS G20-25KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MON...RAIN WITH MVFR CONDS AND INCREASING E-SE WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT.
.TUE...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS...THEN
VFR. WSW WINDS G20-25KT
.WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT SUSTAINED FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A RESULT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S THEN SW AND THEN W WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA IN THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GUST TO SCA CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE EXISTING SCA THROUGH 6PM SATURDAY
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCA WINDS
CONTINUING OVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND SCA OVER THESE WATERS
JUST YET.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD HAVE WINDS
FALLING BELOW SCA SAT NIGHT AND OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW SCA ON SUN.
THE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALES
MIGHT EVEN BE REACHED ON THE OCEAN WATERS MON NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN BY THU AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
BACK INTO THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE REGION WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 4/10 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY
COULD PRODUCE 1+ INCH OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1225 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING...THEN PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT 12Z NAM/14Z RUC/14Z HRRR IDEA OF
CURRENT BATCH OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN DISSIPATING UNDER THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE AREA OF RAIN OF W/CENTRAL PA BEING SLOW TO
PROGRESS E. AS A RESULT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS INTO EARLY
EVENING.
WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS AND ONSHORE FLOW -
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT MOVE MORE THAN A DEGREE OR SO FROM CURRENT
LEVELS AT MOST AREAS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TREK TOWARD THE REGION. AS IT DOES
SO...A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE RATHER LIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NY. STORM TOTAL QPF IS ANYWHERE FROM A
THIRD TO A HALF INCH.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MORNING. A DOWN SLOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR
SATURDAY. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE PARENT LOW IN CANADA...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT. WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. A ZONAL UPPER FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...GIVE WAY TO A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING AND PUSHING TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE
EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD.
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON THIS AMPLIFICATION...WITH
SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES LYING IN TIMING OF PAC SHORTWAVE AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY PHASING WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AS WELL AS
UPSTREAM RIDGING. THIS PLAYS OUT IN SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK/TIMING OF RESULTANT STRONG LOW PRESSURE TUE INTO WED...WHICH
FIRST EMERGES FROM THE SW GULF STATES SUN NIGHT...TRACKS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY MON NIGHT...AND THEN UP THOUGH THE NORTHEAST OR ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TUE/WED. WITH A GULF MOISTURE FEED AND STRONG
DYNAMICS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 1+ INCH RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM
LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. THERMAL PROFILES POINT TOWARDS MAINLY A
RAIN EVENT. HAVE TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO CAT FOR MON NIGHT
BASED ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY. BASED ON
SETUP...EXPECTATION IS FOR TAPERING POPS TUES MORNING BEHIND COLD
FRONT. THEN INSTABILITY CLOUDS LIKELY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
TUE AFT AND ONCE AGAIN WED AFT...COMBINED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AS DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH.
BEFORE THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO THE REGION ON SUN. ON MONDAY...INCREASING
CLOUDS...DEVELOPING AFT RAIN AND DEVELOPING BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY LIMIT TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.
TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT WED WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION HOLDING A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE...BUT
THEN LIKELY MODERATING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRINGING DIMINISHING
CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS FOR TODAY...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS MIXING
IN BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 04Z
TONIGHT...BCMG LIGHT AND VRB.
VARYING MVFR/VFR CIGS THROUGH MID DAY...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF
CIGS DECREASING AS RAIN MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTN. IFR CIGS/VIS MOVE
IN AFTER 00Z WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH A MORE PERSISTENT RAIN
AFTER 21Z. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO BE 22-05Z WITH LIGHT
RAIN THEN LINGERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY START +/- 1 HOUR IN TAF. HEAVIER
RAIN MAY START +1 HOUR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY START +/- 1 HOUR IN TAF.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY START +/- 1 HOUR IN TAF. LIGHT RAIN
MAY START +1 HOUR.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY START +/- 1 HOUR IN TAF. LIGHT RAIN
MAY START +1 HOUR.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN/MVFR CIGS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT RAIN/MVFR CIGS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
18Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...BECOMING VFR DURING THE MORNING. W WINDS G20-25KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MON...RAIN WITH MVFR CONDS AND INCREASING E-SE WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN.
.TUE...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS...THEN
VFR. WSW WINDS G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT SUSTAINED FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A RESULT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S THEN SW AND THEN W WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA IN THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GUST TO SCA CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. HAVE EXTENDED THE EXISTING SCA THROUGH 6PM SATURDAY
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCA WINDS
CONTINUING OVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND SCA OVER THESE WATERS
JUST YET.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD HAVE WINDS
FALLING BELOW SCA SAT NIGHT AND OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW SCA ON SUN.
THE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALES
MIGHT EVEN BE REACHED ON THE OCEAN WATERS MON NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN BY THU AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES
BACK INTO THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE REGION WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1/4 TO 4/10 OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY
COULD PRODUCE 1+ INCH OF RAIN. HOWEVER...NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MALOIT/JP/NV
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED
TO THE SOUTH AND MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT IS
PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AND SHORT
LIVED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EAST KENTUCKY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE SURROUNDING THIS BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THAT WILL
SPREAD OVER THE CWA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS FRONT ALSO BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER WITH LOWER 50S AIR FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA REPLACING
THE MID 60S CURRENTLY SEEN THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S INBOUND RATHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S THAT PRECEDE THE FRONT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL
TAKE A SLOWLY DAMPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS NORTH INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOME ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING BUT ITS IMPACT WOULD BE MITIGATED BY THE
RISING HEIGHTS. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL FAVOR THE HRRR EARLY ON
AND THEN A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS...GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A PRE-FIRST PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. WILL
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH NOW THAT THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAS BEEN DONE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXPIRING. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EXITING RAINS WILL HOLD IN FOR MANY MORE HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO...CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AT RIDGETOP THAN IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNSHINE FOR SATURDAY WITH
SEASONABLY LOWER HEIGHTS LIMITING THE WARMUP TO THE MID 50S IN MOST
PLACES WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT A BETTER AND MORE
TYPICAL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST AND ALSO ALLOWS SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO MOVE NORTH INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
FOR MOST OF THE NEAR TERM GRIDS...USED THE BC/CONSSHORT AS A STARTING
POINT WITH LITTLE ADJUSTMENT GIVEN THE CAA PATTERN. THEREAFTER...
POPULATED WITH THE CONSALL SUITE AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...
PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS AND SATURDAY DEWPOINTS. FOR
POPS...OUTSIDE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS...KEPT THEM LOW...IN LINE WITH
THE MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH
OF KENTUCKY AND TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUPPORTED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL LIMIT ONSET...THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD OVERPOWER THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE
NORTH...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOLER
WEATHER RETURNING BY MONDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
FREE WEATHER LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BY MID WEEK...PROVIDING RAIN
FREE WEATHER FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS...MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35 KTS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
PASSES. ANY MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. AFTER THAT...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH NO CIGS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO ENTER EAST KENTUCKY PUSHING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. A THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM THIS
BEFORE THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH. THE EARLIER STORMS AND HEAVIER
RAINS HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE. THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING HAS BASICALLY COME TO AN END...THOUGH A COUPLE AREAL
WARNINGS REMAIN...MAINLY SURROUNDING THE LARGER RIVERS THAT ARE
RUNNING HEIGHT NEAR SALYERSVILLE AND RAVENNA. WILL LIKELY LET THE
FLOOD WATCH DROP WITH THE MAIN PACKAGE UPDATE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SURROUND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND THEY
ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TRACK. FOR THIS UPDATE...DID FINE TUNE
THE POPS...SKY COVER...T...AND TD GRIDS ALONG WITH THE WINDS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS HAS MADE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER MORNING AS THE LATEST MCS IS
TRACKING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. HAVE DROPPED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SEVERE WATCH FOR OUR AREA WITH THE REST ON TRACK TO BE GONE BY 11 AM.
STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE
OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS THROUGH NOON...BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL KICK
IN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHARP FRONT DESTINED TO BE CROSSING INTO OUR
AREA. FOR THIS WE DO HAVE A WIND ADVISORY GOING INTO EFFECT STARTING
AT NOON AND LASTING THROUGH 8 PM. DO EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUAL FRONT AS IT PASSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIT
WITH THE MORNING ACTIVITY. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER
FOR THE AREA ONCE THE MORNING MCS EXITS...TOO. WILL CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH...AS THE RUNOFF MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE CREEKS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH ARE RUNNING QUITE
FULL. A COUPLE OF FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID PART OF THE
CWA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
IN ADDITION...A FEW RIVER POINTS WILL GO INTO ACTION WITH A COUPLE OF
SPOTS POSSIBLY HITTING FLOOD. THE UPDATES FOR THE GRIDS AND
PRODUCTS...AFFECTED BY THE SVR WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM WESTERN OHIO
TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING
UPSTREAM...WITH THE KENTUCKY MESONET REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LATEST MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS SHOW
THIS LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM...AND LIKELY
EXITING THE EAST BY AROUND NOON TIME. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS
UPSTREAM AND THE TIMING DURING THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS LINE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO STAY UNDER SEVERE
LIMITS AS IT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING UP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS...AS AN
850 MB JET OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES BEHIND THE DEPARTED CONVECTIVE
LINE. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WITH PEAK WINDS
GENERALLY OCCURRING IN THE 2 TO 6 PM TIME FRAME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS
TODAY...HOWEVER WITH ONGOING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AS ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY AT LEAST DELAY ANY RECEDING THAN CAN
TAKE PLACE.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE
30S...DEPENDING ON CLEARING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO
THE 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION...AND A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...FINALLY
REACHING KY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE IN THE
MID TERM...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
STAY NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATURDAY NIGHTS
TEMPS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWARD...TRAVERSING
THROUGH KY SOMETIME ON MONDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT A VERY STRONG INFLUX OF WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR TO
PULL IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON
SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE AN
IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ALOFT ONCE THE PRECIP GETS
GOING...SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SITUATION TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AT
ONSET...AND THEN A LINE OF STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING. IF ANY OF
THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DURING A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR
THUNDERSTORM...COULD SEE THE THREAT OF HIGH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE.
THE ONLY INHIBITOR RIGHT NOW IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE
DURING THIS SYSTEM...INHIBITING BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS IS
LOOKING TO BE A PRIMARILY FAST MOVING...WIND PRODUCING...RAIN EVENT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT JUST NE OF KY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO
GAIN STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...SOME DRYING WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT. BUT AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE
REGION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CAUSE POPS TO
RETURN/CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS...AS THE GEM AND GFS HIGHLIGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 18Z TUESDAY...AND THE
NAM THOUGH SHOWING SOME QPF...IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN
NATURE. EITHER WAY...DRYING OR NO DRYING...ANOTHER SWING OF MOISTURE
IS GOING TO BE ENTERING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE KY IN THE DEPTHS OF THE TROUGH AT
THIS POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE TROUGH...INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS KY AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL RELY ON THE BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR POPS IN THIS PERIOD...AS ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF TRACK OR
STRENGTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SET UP OF THIS PRECIP.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH KY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
HOLD ONCE MORE. IT IS VERY FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
SOME DECENT FOGGING IN PARTS OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE GETS TRAPPED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORN. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35 KTS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
PASSES. ANY MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY DUSK. AFTER THAT...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH NO CIGS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
304 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SNOW CONTINUES HEAVY OVER THE WEST TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS
HAVE SEEN THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS STORM THUS FAR. SNOW AMOUNTS SO
FAR OVER THE WEST OF AT LEAST 10 INCHES IN MANY AREAS. PTYPE ISSUES
AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL HAS KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER CNTRL
CWA LESS THAN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME.
BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT CNTRL CWA INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. JUST
RECEIVED REPORT FROM SPOTTER NEAR NORWAY OF OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE
HOUR WITH THIS SNOW AS IT MOVED THROUGH. BASED ON NUMEROUS REPORTS
RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...THANKS TO EVERYONE FOR THOSE...WE HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON PTYPE. TURNS OUT THE RUC13 HAS DECENT HANDLE AS
WELL...SHOWING THE WARM LAYER AT 750MB COLLAPSING EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IS WHAT ON THE GROUND REPORTS AND 88D MQT DUAL
POL CC DATA INDICATE. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG WI BORDER AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN. CLOSER TO
LK SUPERIOR AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CWA...EXPECT TOTALS INTO THIS EVENING STILL IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH
RANGE. APPEARS THE MOST SNOW FROM HERE ON OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NCNTRL CWA...BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES. WOULD
IMAGINE UPSLOPE AREAS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL STILL SEE TOTALS OVER
A FOOT LOCALLY.
NO CHANGES TO HAZARDS FOR NOW. TWEAKED WORDING TO DOWNPLAY ICE/SLEET
AND HIT UP THE SNOW MORE. ALSO UPDATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN GRIDS
AND WSW STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
KEPT SPIRIT OF PREVIOUS FORECAST UNCHANGED AS ONGOING WINTER STORM
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
LITTLE LESS THAN RUNS FROM 12 HOURS AGO...SO LOWERED QPF/SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY AS HEAVY PRECIP AND SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR LIKELY IN AREAS EXPECTED SNOW. THE ONLY AREA NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE MOSTLY SNOW IS OVER THE ERN U.P. AND AREAS SE OF A LINE FROM
GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS AS ELEVATED WARM NOSE MOVES INTO THESE AREAS.
ON THE N/NW FRINGES OF THE WARM NOSE...LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH FOR PRIMARILY SLEET THIS MORNING WHILE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY THE PRECIP WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO RAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING. BY 18Z TODAY...COLDER AIR MOVES IN THAT WILL TURN
LIQUID PRECIP TO SNOW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH STILL EXPECTED OVER SRN DELTA AND SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /INCLUDING WHAT HAS BEEN
SEEN SO FAR SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-18 INCHES
IN THE ALL SNOW AREA NW OF A LINE FROM GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS...WITH
THE HIGHEST OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE WITH VERY
DRY AIR MOVES TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z SAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE TROFS IN THE PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A
TENDENCY FOR RIDGING OVER WRN NAMERICA OR ALONG THE W COAST AND
TROFFING OVER ERN NAMERICA. RESULT WILL BE FLUCTUATION OF TEMPS
BTWN ABOVE AND BLO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO. AFTER THE
ONGOING STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENTS DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA MOVES E AND THEN LIFTS NE TO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES.
COMPARED TO TODAY...THE WEATHER SAT WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT AS
A VERY DRY AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE E EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTN...BUT OTHERWISE...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE BRIGHT SUNSHINE ON THE FRESH SNOW
COVER. WITH THE EVER INCREASING MID DAY SUN ANGLE NOW THAT WE ARE
INTO EARLY APR...THE FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RESPOND
NICELY. OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
30S TO MID 40S. IT WILL BE COOLEST (LWR 30S) OVER THE E NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR UNDER NW WINDS OFF THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE.
SAT NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. ASSOCIATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTENING TAKING PLACE AT LOW LEVELS
TO YIELD SOME PCPN LATER IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NW FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS COULD BE A MIX OF
SNOW/FZRA/RA. ONLY SCHC POPS WILL BE UTILIZED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN WHETHER ANY PCPN WILL REACH THE SFC.
LOW PCPN CHC WILL SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA SUN AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHIFTS E. WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN PTYPE
CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO AT LEAST THE 40S ACROSS THE FCST
AREA (SOME LWR 50S ALONG WI BORDER).
SUN NIGHT/MON...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SRN END OF THE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO CA. SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN
AND THEN LIFT NE SUN NIGHT/MON IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER
WRN NAMERICA WHICH FORCES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHARPLY SSE THRU THE WRN
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE WRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
DISPLACED TOO FAR W OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TO PHASE WITH IT AND FORCE
IT FAR ENOUGH N TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON UPPER MI. WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF AXIS...THERE MAY BE SOME -RA...WITH -FZRA
ALSO POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
AS PTYPE MON NIGHT. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. NEXT SET OF SHORTWAVES
TRACK ESE INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED NIGHT/THU. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN INTO THE AREA LATER WED
INTO WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT`S UNCERTAIN HOW FAR S THE COLUMN WILL
SATURATE UNDER THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE GFS KEEPS WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PCPN WELL N OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS PCPN ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE NEEDED GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY (LOWEST POPS SW AND HIGHEST POPS NE). GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE WARMING (850MB TEMPS RISE TO 4 TO 9C ECMWF OR 10 TO 13C
GFS)...PTYPE WILL BE RAIN...THOUGH SOME -FZRA MAY OCCUR OVER THE E
WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL JUST BLO FREEZING. WITH SFC LOW PASSING BY TO
THE N...COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH POTENTIAL OF
SOME -SHRA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
VLIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING HAVE GRADUALLY GAVE WAY TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW IS FILLING BACK IN...DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VLIFR AGAIN TODAY AS MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL
BE OF THE LIGHTER VARIETY. STILL...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THE LONGEST AT SAW DUE TO THE N-NE FLOW. ALL SITES WILL SEE SOME
BLSN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN EVENTUALLY TO VFR AS THE SNOW ENDS RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
NNW GALES OF 35-40KTS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE
OVER NE LAKE HURON WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC ON SATURDAY WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY
BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. A LOW ACROSS THE N
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...WHILE MERGING WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
EXPECT THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH TO MOVE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON
TUESDAY AND FAR E CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A RIDGE SWINGS ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
NEARING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEARING 30KTS. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>011-013-014-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ246>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SNOW CONTINUES HEAVY OVER THE WEST TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN. THESE AREAS
HAVE SEEN THE MOST SNOW OUT OF THIS STORM THUS FAR. SNOW AMOUNTS SO
FAR OVER THE WEST OF AT LEAST 10 INCHES IN MANY AREAS. PTYPE ISSUES
AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL HAS KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER CNTRL
CWA LESS THAN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME.
BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT CNTRL CWA INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. JUST
RECEIVED REPORT FROM SPOTTER NEAR NORWAY OF OVER 2 INCHES IN ONE
HOUR WITH THIS SNOW AS IT MOVED THROUGH. BASED ON NUMEROUS REPORTS
RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...THANKS TO EVERYONE FOR THOSE...WE HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON PTYPE. TURNS OUT THE RUC13 HAS DECENT HANDLE AS
WELL...SHOWING THE WARM LAYER AT 750MB COLLAPSING EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IS WHAT ON THE GROUND REPORTS AND 88D MQT DUAL
POL CC DATA INDICATE. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG WI BORDER AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN. CLOSER TO
LK SUPERIOR AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CWA...EXPECT TOTALS INTO THIS EVENING STILL IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH
RANGE. APPEARS THE MOST SNOW FROM HERE ON OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NCNTRL CWA...BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES. WOULD
IMAGINE UPSLOPE AREAS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL STILL SEE TOTALS OVER
A FOOT LOCALLY.
NO CHANGES TO HAZARDS FOR NOW. TWEAKED WORDING TO DOWNPLAY ICE/SLEET
AND HIT UP THE SNOW MORE. ALSO UPDATED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN GRIDS
AND WSW STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
KEPT SPIRIT OF PREVIOUS FORECAST UNCHANGED AS ONGOING WINTER STORM
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
LITTLE LESS THAN RUNS FROM 12 HOURS AGO...SO LOWERED QPF/SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY AS HEAVY PRECIP AND SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR LIKELY IN AREAS EXPECTED SNOW. THE ONLY AREA NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE MOSTLY SNOW IS OVER THE ERN U.P. AND AREAS SE OF A LINE FROM
GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS AS ELEVATED WARM NOSE MOVES INTO THESE AREAS.
ON THE N/NW FRINGES OF THE WARM NOSE...LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH FOR PRIMARILY SLEET THIS MORNING WHILE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN/BAY OF GREEN BAY THE PRECIP WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY...FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO RAIN AS SFC TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING. BY 18Z TODAY...COLDER AIR MOVES IN THAT WILL TURN
LIQUID PRECIP TO SNOW BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH STILL EXPECTED OVER SRN DELTA AND SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTIES. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /INCLUDING WHAT HAS BEEN
SEEN SO FAR SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-18 INCHES
IN THE ALL SNOW AREA NW OF A LINE FROM GWINN TO CRYSTAL FALLS...WITH
THE HIGHEST OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE FRI NIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE WITH VERY
DRY AIR MOVES TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z SAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE TROFS IN THE PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A
TENDENCY FOR RIDGING OVER WRN NAMERICA OR ALONG THE W COAST AND
TROFFING OVER ERN NAMERICA. RESULT WILL BE FLUCTUATION OF TEMPS
BTWN ABOVE AND BLO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO. AFTER THE
ONGOING STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENTS DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CA MOVES E AND THEN LIFTS NE TO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES.
COMPARED TO TODAY...THE WEATHER SAT WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT AS
A VERY DRY AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE E EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTN...BUT OTHERWISE...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE BRIGHT SUNSHINE ON THE FRESH SNOW
COVER. WITH THE EVER INCREASING MID DAY SUN ANGLE NOW THAT WE ARE
INTO EARLY APR...THE FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RESPOND
NICELY. OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
30S TO MID 40S. IT WILL BE COOLEST (LWR 30S) OVER THE E NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR UNDER NW WINDS OFF THE MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE.
SAT NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. ASSOCIATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTENING TAKING PLACE AT LOW LEVELS
TO YIELD SOME PCPN LATER IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NW FCST AREA. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS COULD BE A MIX OF
SNOW/FZRA/RA. ONLY SCHC POPS WILL BE UTILIZED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN WHETHER ANY PCPN WILL REACH THE SFC.
LOW PCPN CHC WILL SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA SUN AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SHIFTS E. WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN PTYPE
CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO AT LEAST THE 40S ACROSS THE FCST
AREA (SOME LWR 50S ALONG WI BORDER).
SUN NIGHT/MON...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SRN END OF THE TROF CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO CA. SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUN
AND THEN LIFT NE SUN NIGHT/MON IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER
WRN NAMERICA WHICH FORCES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHARPLY SSE THRU THE WRN
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE WRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
DISPLACED TOO FAR W OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TO PHASE WITH IT AND FORCE
IT FAR ENOUGH N TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON UPPER MI. WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF AXIS...THERE MAY BE SOME -RA...WITH -FZRA
ALSO POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
AS PTYPE MON NIGHT. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. NEXT SET OF SHORTWAVES
TRACK ESE INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED NIGHT/THU. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN INTO THE AREA LATER WED
INTO WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT`S UNCERTAIN HOW FAR S THE COLUMN WILL
SATURATE UNDER THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE GFS KEEPS WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PCPN WELL N OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SPREADS PCPN ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI. ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ARE NEEDED GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY (LOWEST POPS SW AND HIGHEST POPS NE). GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE WARMING (850MB TEMPS RISE TO 4 TO 9C ECMWF OR 10 TO 13C
GFS)...PTYPE WILL BE RAIN...THOUGH SOME -FZRA MAY OCCUR OVER THE E
WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL JUST BLO FREEZING. WITH SFC LOW PASSING BY TO
THE N...COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH POTENTIAL OF
SOME -SHRA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
VLIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING HAVE GRADUALLY GAVE WAY TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW IS FILLING BACK IN...DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VLIFR AGAIN TODAY AS MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL
BE OF THE LIGHTER VARIETY. STILL...THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THE LONGEST AT SAW DUE TO THE N-NE FLOW. ALL SITES WILL SEE SOME
BLSN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OUT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN EVENTUALLY TO VFR AS THE SNOW ENDS RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER N MO WILL MOVE TO S LAKE MI BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...ACROSS N LOWER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT ALONG THE
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NE TO N GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY TO
EXPAND OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE N AND NNW.
WINDS FROM MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
30KTS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW ACROSS S HUDSON BAY WILL ALLOW A BRIEF
TROUGH TO EXTEND OVER FAR N LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN LOW
PRESSURE NEAR KY MONDAY MORNING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT THE TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO FILL SLIGHTLY ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-009>011-013-014-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ246>250-265-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ240>242-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
146 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
AREA OF RAINFALL FROM PTK NORTH AS OF 17Z PUSHING NORTH HAS ALLOWED
VISIBILITIES TO RISE IN ITS WAKE. STILL...PERIODIC REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE REMAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT PASSES AND INCREASING SW WINDS SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WINDS. FROM UPSTREAM OBS...EXPECT GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO LAG FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT BY 1-2 HOURS. TAFS SHOW A
STEADY RAMP-UP IN GUSTS FROM 18-20Z FROM PTK SOUTH...19-21Z FOR FNT
AND MBS. CEILINGS WILL ALSO RISE TO MVFR DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS GRADUALLY ENDING. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
FOR DTW...LIGHT SSW WINDS AT 18Z WILL RAMP UP THROUGH 20Z WHILE
VEERING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION. GUSTS NEAR 40KT ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20Z-01Z...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE FROM 01-08Z.
THE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FOR AIRCRAFT
LANDING TOWARD SSW. VISIBILITIES MAY FLUCTUATE PRIOR TO 20Z BUT
UNDERGO A RISING TREND. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY 20Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 200 FT AND VSBY BELOW 1/2 SM
PRIOR TO 20Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5 KFT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS FROM
250-260 DEGREES AFTER 20Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1121 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST PLAYING OUT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW
ENTERS LOWER MI. THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOW WITH A SECONDARY CENTER
LOCATED TO THE SE HAS KEPT THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS LED TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG
LINGERING LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
CWA...TEMPERATURES HOLDING AT OR BELOW 40 AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
KEPT OUT OF THE AREA...ONSET OF PRECIP DELAYED OVER SE MI AS THE
SECONDARY LOW AND FRONT RAMPED UP OVER CENTRAL OHIO...AND CONCERNS
ABOUT THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE AS LACK OF MIXING WILL
MAKE IT INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT TO TAP INTO THE ELEVATED WINDS
ALOFT LEAVING US WITH MORE OF A PURE GRADIENT FLOW VS DOWNWARD
MIXING PLUS GRADIENT FLOW. WILL GIVE THE WINDS A CHANCE YET AS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY STILL ENTER THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SECONDARY LOW PIVOTS UP AND AROUND
THE MAIN PRESSURE CENTER. IN ADDITION...GRADIENT FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH.
LOWERED POPS FOR EXTREME SE MI AS PRECIP SHIELD STRUGGLES TO FILL
IN COMPLETELY. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATE START WITH WAA AND EXCESSIVE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
PREVENTING THE SUN FROM ADDING MUCH TO THE CAUSE. CURRENT FOG
LAYER WILL GET SCOURED OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS PRECIP
INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND COLD FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALL IS QUIET TO BEGIN THE DAY AS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SETTLED
BETWEEN AN ACTIVE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA AND
ONGOING AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF INTEREST IS PRESENTLY
POSITIONED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE OCCLUDED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN BARREN OF ANY ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DOES SHOW SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE ALONG A
LINE FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO TO FORT WAYNE AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING AS
ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE. BUT SO FAR THE
00Z NWP HAVE GIVEN FAR TOO MUCH RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY
WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC AND HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER GRASP
ON THE SITUATION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE WITH THE LATTER GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNINSPIRING APPEARANCE ON RADAR. THUS, TRIMMED POPS BACK IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR LOW COVERAGE THROUGH 15Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH WHICH MAY SEE A GLANCING BLOW AS
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD.
EXPANSION OF COVERAGE IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV
ANOMALY OVER MISSOURI WRAP INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING WILL BE AT THEIR GREATEST. HOWEVER,
ALL LOCATIONS CAN STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AS STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF 1.2+" PWATS.
SUPERPOSITION OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT AROUND 18Z. IT IS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THAT
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL EXIST, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN
ISOLATED AT BEST.
GOOD SIGNATURE IN THE HIGH RES MODELS OF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, INDICATIVE OF AN AGGRESSIVE MASS
ADJUSTMENT TAKING PLACE. WHEN CONSIDERED ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
AMBIENT WIND FIELD AND TIMING DURING PEAK HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO
MAXIMIZED MIXING DEPTHS, ADVISORY OR NEAR-ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS
CERTAINLY SEEM PLAUSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL FROPA. THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE
APPRECIABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. ATTM, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS
SOUTH. LIKEWISE, LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE A BIT OF A DELAY
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER WINDS FOR THIS REASON. COLD ADVECTION
WILL ENSUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A DEEP LAYER OF STRONG
WINDS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 KTS BEING TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BY STRONG
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND STRONG ISENTROPIC DESCENT FROM 275-285K.
ALL SURFACES WITHIN THIS 10K DEEP LAYER INTERSECT THE GROUND AND
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE ORTHOGONAL SYSTEM RELATIVE WIND COMPONENT TO
HELP MAXIMIZE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE STRONG WIND FIELD. COMBINED
WITH NAM PROGS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING WITHIN
THE MIXED LAYER IN SPITE OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP MIXING, A WIND
ADVISORY SEEMS LIKE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION FOR AT LEAST THE 21-03Z PERIOD.
SAID ADVISORY WAS THEREFORE ISSUED BEGINNING WITH THE INITIAL FROPA
AND LASTING UNTIL COLD ADVECTION EASES AROUND MIDNIGHT.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED COLUMN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A PARTIAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEPART INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY AS LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC ADVANCING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER TRAPPED UNDER A DEEP INVERSION SHOULD EQUATE TO
AMPLE CLOUD COVER SAT MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING TREND SAT AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDING ANTICYCLONIC AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUN
WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS INTO THE 40S DESPITE A RATHER CHILLY START
TO THE DAY. A LINGERING NW GRADIENT WILL HOWEVER CAUSE RATHER BRISK
NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD SAT
NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT MINS
DOWN INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF SE MI. SOME MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS BY SUNDAY SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S.
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
SHOWN BY THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE...FEATURING A LONG WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE WRN US AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTL AND
ERN US. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS
FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION SUNDAY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THERE ACTUALLY REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SFC LOW
WILL TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OVERSPREADS SE MI MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF MONDAY NIGHT.
SEEING AS THIS SYSTEM WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE GULF...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE DEFORMATION REGION AND THUS
HIGH POPS ARE JUSTIFIED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL HOLD WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN PRECIP TYPE AS ALL RAIN. THE GFS
DEEPENS THIS SYSTEM MORE QUICKLY THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
AND THUS HOLDS THE DEFORMATION FORCING OVER SE MI RIGHT INTO TUES
MORNING. THIS SOLUTIONS DOES OFFER THE POSSIBILITY THAT COOLING DUE
TO MELTING FROM PROLONGED PRECIP MAY CHANCE SOME LOCALS OVER TO SNOW
LATE MON NIGHT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS...SUPPORTING ALL RAIN AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A BREAK DOWN OF THE WRN US
LONG WAVE RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL HOWEVER OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR
REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING TO NRN LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. DESPITE VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM
AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE ICY WATERS OF THE LAKES WILL INHIBIT THESE
STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE LAKE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
TO THE NORTH OF THUNDER BAY WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND THUS MAKE SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
18Z. WINDS OVER LAKE HURON WILL THEN DECREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE SFC HIGH TRACKS OVERHEAD. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN LEAD TO A SHARP
INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THESE STRONGER WINDS...EXPECTED TO EXCEED
GALE FORCE AT TIMES...WILL FIRST REACH WRN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST
CLAIR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GALES WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER LAKE
HURON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON INTO SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AND THE GRADIENT
RELAXES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-
MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
MIZ083...UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LHZ363-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 4
PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON
INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...
GALE WARNING...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
GALE WARNING...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
UPDATE.......DT
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
346 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT BROUGHT AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS A FOOT AND
A HALF TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT. A GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED BAND OF SNOW HAD SET UP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD AND PINE COUNTY EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE MECHANISM RESPONSIBLE APPEARS TO BE SHUTTING
OFF. AS A RESULT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REMOVE MORE COUNTIES FROM THE
WARNING. WILL HANG ON TO THE WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF NW
WI...SPECIFICALLY BAYFIELD AND SAWYER COUNTY EASTWARD. HEAVY SNOW
RECENTLY AT THE IRONWOOD STATION...WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITY AT
ASHLAND. THINK THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO MORE IN SPOTS FOR THE
EVENING...WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE. THE HRRR ACTUALLY CUTS THINGS OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY
THOUGH THIS EVENING SO THAT WOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS IF THINGS SHUT OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY. WILL ALSO HANG ON TO SOME FLURRIES FURTHER
WESTWARD AS SOME DIURNAL CLOUD COVER HAD DEVELOPED AND BROUGHT
SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.
ONCE THE SNOW COMES TO AN END TONIGHT...WE WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE
TEENS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTH.
THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF MELTING ON SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S. ONLY
EXCEPTION IN TERMS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...WHERE SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
OVERALL PATTERN THIS PERIOD FEATURES A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED
NEAR FRNTL BDRY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS IT INITIALLY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO CWA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEARBY SO LOW POPS REMAIN IN FCST
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THE OVERALL FORCING IS QUITE WEAK AND DO NOT
EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A DRY SPELL WILL UNFOLD
TUES/WED BEFORE NEXT FRNTL SYSTEM MOVES ACROS THE REGION WED
NIGHT/THUR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LARGE SHIELD OF CLOUDS/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTN
WITH VFR AT MN SITES. KHYR WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING. AREA
OF LOW STRATUS WEST OF CWA IS FCST TO DISSIPATE IN NEXT 6 HRS
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR KBRD FOR POTENTIAL AMENDMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 16 39 28 44 / 10 0 20 10
INL 14 45 26 46 / 0 0 20 10
BRD 16 45 29 48 / 0 0 10 20
HYR 12 42 29 47 / 20 0 20 20
ASX 14 40 28 44 / 60 0 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ008-009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR WIZ002>004.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
252 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEING LOCATED NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
INCREASES BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
MIXING HAD FINALLY TAKEN PLACE WITH SOME THINNING OR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH A SMATTERING OF WIND
GUSTS AROUND 30KT. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WINDS...THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...
BELOW 0.75 INCH...AND NEGLIGIBLE MLCAPE AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE. THE
LATEST MSAS LIFTED INDEX ANALYSIS SHOWED VALUES AT OR ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL...THOUGH WITH SOME HEATING
STILL DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT LOW NEGATIVE VALUES BY
LATE IN THE DAY. STILL...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...DIMINISHING LIFT AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST...AND RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AT BEST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION APPARENTLY
LIMITED.
THE CAP AROUND 700MB SHOULD ERODE SOME THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP DOES
NOT ERODE COMPLETELY. IT IS CLOSE...THOUGH...AND WILL NEED TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WRF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND THE
RETREATING BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER...THE VERY
LATEST HRRR WRF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION THAT MAY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85.
REGARDLESS...AGAIN...IT IS PRUDENT WITH SOME EROSION OF THE MID-
LEVEL CAP...AND AN ANTICIPATED NARROW WINDOW OF INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...TO SHOW SOME CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. GIVEN SOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND
THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...A STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH A VIGOROUS SHOWER OR STORM SHOULD ONE DEVELOP...AND
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NOTES THIS. CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DUE TO THE EXPECTED
SPEED OF THE FRONT AND LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS DRY THE AIR
MASS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS WITH
MIXING IN A WINDOW OF A TIGHTER GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SATURDAY. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE WAY THE AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO
WARM OF LATE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS WHILE THE NAM IS LESS BULLISH...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CONFLUENT FLOW NORTH
CLOSER TO TROUGHINESS ALOFT...THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE...OR
MORE OPAQUE AT TIMES...HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. AS SUCH...WITH COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD REACH IN THE UPPER
30S ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. CURRENTLY...
EXPECT VALUES THERE TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF
FROST...ALTHOUGH IF CLOUDS ARE LESS PREVALENT UNDER A LIGHT WIND...
A PATCH OR TWO IN THE MOST SHELTERED AREA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
WITH A COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP...THERE CONTINUES TO BE NEAR
RO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT
DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING
DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY...WITH IN-SITU DAMMING SETTING UP
OVER THE REGION. AS OUR NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OVERRUNNING PRECIP SHOULD
COMMENCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON (MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH)...HOWEVER THE
BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO START UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES EVEN MORE
IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ERODING THE
CAD WEDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MANY TIMES THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK
TO DO THIS AND IT MAY INDEED HOLD IN PLACE LONGER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE EXPECTED PRECIP. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND IF THE CAD WEDGE HOLDS...IT COULD ALSO SERVE AS A
FOCUS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING (MODELS KEEP BEST INSTABILITY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST)
WHICH WOULD HINDER MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THEN THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
FOR THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FLAT RIDGING MOVE OVER THE
REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP
FRIDAY DRY...TOO.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GIVEN THE EXPECTED CAD AND PRECIP AND THEN DUE TO DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST. SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SHOULD SUCH AN EVENT OCCUR...THE PRIMARY
AVIATION IMPACT SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD REACH AROUND 30KT AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KTS ARE LIKELY WITH INITIAL MIXING
SATURDAY MORNING.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF SATURDAY AND LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE
PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS STARTS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
SUCH THAT BY MONDAY THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST MVFR IF
NOT IFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE AT AROUND 2000FT MAY INCREASE TO
VALUES APPROACHING 50KT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS COULD
CAUSE LLWS CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART INTO WEDNESDAY...
OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWER.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TONIGHTS LOWS AS A
RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM PILOT MOUND...MB DOWN THROUGH
EUREKA...SD SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...ENTERING MN SIDE
OF THE VALLEY BY AROUND 06Z TO 08Z. A WEAK COOL FRONT CLIPS THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY EARLY SAT MORNING. GENERALLY LIKE A BLEND OF
THE NAM AND ECMWF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BULLISH WITH MOISTURE AND
HAS A COUPLE OF PERIODS (THE LAST TWO RUNS) WITH QPF BULLSEYES.
NAM/ECMWF IS GENERALLY DRIER.
TONIGHT...ATTM DIFFICULT TO ASSESS TRUE CLOUD COVER WITH SOME
AREAS THINNING/CLEARING...BUT DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE LOW
CLOUDS FROM RECENT SNOW IN OTHER AREAS. IN GENERAL..APPEARS CLOUDS
ARE THINNING...AND THE RUC LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON IT CLEARING OUT AFT 00Z ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST. CERTAINLY THINK BY 06Z AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT THEN
SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN ZONES. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVING INTO SASK WILL
MOVE ACROSS MB IN THE 09Z TO 15Z TIMEFRAME...AND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE I DID REMOVE POPS AND GO WITH FLURRIES OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING WITH SPRINKLES NORTHEAST BY NOON. GFS SOUNDINGS DRY MID
LEVELS OUT INDICATING POSSIBLE DRIZZLE BUT DID NOT INCLUDE THAT
POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL SEE BREEZY SFC WINDS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS SHIFT NW EARLY EVENING AND
BEFORE SFC HIGH BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT. SFC LOWS COULD BE
COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING IN AREAS OF FRESHER SNOW AS
WE SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE
NORTH...WARMER TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WE WILL STILL HAVE
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE SKY COVER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL SEE STRONGER RETURN FLOW SET UP SUN AFTN
AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO 5OS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS IN
SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH A SFC LOW/WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS
AREA SUN NIGHT...WITH NAM SHOWING SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
LATE SUN AFTN BUT GENERALLY DRY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ECMWF SIMILAR TO NAM WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION
MINUS LATE SUN AFTN ACTIVITY. GFS BRINGS ACROSS MORE MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL DAKOTAS SUN AFTN BUT LIMITS PRECIP TO SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA SUN NIGHT. AGAIN...GENERALLY LIKE THE DRIER SOLUTION
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY GULF MOISTURE LIKELY BEING ROBBED BY STRONG
CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN (BECOMING RAIN/SNOW BY
EARLY MON MORNING) ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH LOW POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF HILLSBORO.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE N CENTRAL US INTO MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A STEADY WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE VALUES TOPPING OUT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN 60S LOOKS LIKELY.
FLOW THEN FLATTENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR FLATTENING THE RIDGE WILL
DROP THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FROPA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FEEL CURRENT MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS FROM THE VALLEY WEST WILL LIFT SOME
AND BECOME BROKEN BUT NOT LIKELY TO SCATTER OUT UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THIS EVENING THICKENING CI WILL SPREAD FROM W-E ACROSS THE FA
HOWEVER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
FA WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
121 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
TOOK ONE LAST SHOT AT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...BUMPING UP
TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
SNOW IS SCARCE AND SUN IS PLENTIFUL TODAY. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRATUS IS SLOW TO
ERODE. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
QUICK UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY AREA CENTERED NEAR DICKINSON. EXPECT THIS AREA TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALSO WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A
BIT IN THE SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 AM MDT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WX CAMS
INDICATE VISIBILITIES IMPROVING IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER KDIK AND
KHEI ARE STILL A QUARTER AND HALF MILE RESPECTIVELY. WILL CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY FOR NOW AND CAN ALWAYS DROP IT EARLY IF VISIBILITIES
REBOUND QUICKLY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH STRATUS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AND WEST TO EAST. MADE SOME MINOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE. COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST LAST
NIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEARED BEFORE FOG DEVELOPED. ADJUSTED MORNING
TEMPERATURE RISE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD START.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
RECENT SNOW COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RADIATE INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRESH SURFACE MOISTURE SOURCE AND
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES
ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHERE THE
SKY HAS CLEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. ONE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY IS BEING REPORTED AT DICKINSON...BEACH AND IN BAKER
MONTANA. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOW DENSE FOG IN BELFIELD AND BOWMAN. WILL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 16Z. HETTINGER IS
NEARING A CLEAR POCKET AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE TRYING TO FORECAST
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. THE HRRR SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECAST
SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UP UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z.
THEREAFTER...MIXING ENSUES AND CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CANADA
FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLICING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THE
BEST FORCING RESIDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE GEM/GFS AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW
FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SATURDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP OCCURRING...SO THINK IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL.
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
STATEWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS (THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET) IS FORECAST TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ECMWF) OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (GFS). FOR NOW INDICATED A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 7 FORECAST. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE VLIFR SITUATION IN KDIK AND MFVR IN KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE IN KDIK...DROPPING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO A
MVFR CATEGORY OR LOWER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL ADDRESS TEMPS. WE ARE NO SEEING SOME
THINNING/BREAKING UP OF CLOUDS IN SOUTHEASTERN ND BUT CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE ACTUALLY BEGINNING TO ADVECT WEST INTO BENSON
COUNTY WHILE THE CLEARING OVER EASTERN ZONES HAS EXPANDED INTO
CENTRAL POLK. THEREFORE I AM REDUCING TEMPS TWO TO THREE DEG IN
AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLOUDY AS I DON`T SEE CLEARING OCCURRING IN
TIME TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON CLOUDS (MAY ACTUALLY KEEP US WARMER
TONIGHT). HAVE KEPT UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EAST. ALSO REDUCED
MEASURABLE PRECIP/POPS TO LIGHT FLURRIES SAT AM AND SPRINKLES IN
THE AFTN...AS MODELS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE SOUTH OF
THE INTL BORDER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OVER LAKE MANITOBA DOWN THROUGH
WALL...SD WITH SOME CLEARING NOW EDGING INTO NORTHWESTERN BENSON
COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF CLEAR SKIES THAT IS ACTUALLY
EXPANDING OVER LAKE OF THE WOOD DOWN THROUGH FAR EASTERN OTTER
TAIL COUNTY. ESTF SKY TOOL DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS AND WILL
USE IT FOR SKY TRENDS...WITH RUC H925-H850 RH PICKING UP ON SOME
OF THESE AREAS OF DRIER LL MOISTURE AS WELL. WILL NEED TO WATCH
CLOSELY TEMPS OVER THESE EASTERN ZONES AS FOREST EFFECT MAY CAUSE
WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FCST AS THEY ARE ALREADY CLEAR. WILL
SEE HOW NEXT COUPLE SETS OF OBS COME IN BEFORE ADJUSTING TOO
MUCH AS CLOUDS TO THE WEST MAY ADVECT OVER AREA (RUC DOES SHOW
THIS AREA FILLING IN). OTHER THAN THAT...NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH
LOW POPS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER AS NAM KEEPS SOUTHERN EXTEND OF ANY
PRECIP AROUND WINNIPEG. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES IN...AND IF IT IS
UNIMPRESSIVE AS WELL WILL LIKELY PULL POPS IN THIS AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LAST COUPLE HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP STRATUS DECK OVER THE FA THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND WILL ADJUST
LITTLE FOR THIS UPDATE. A COOL AND CLOUDY FRIDAY WITH SOME MORNING
FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE FOR THE VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUD TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE FA.
CLOUDS THE MAIN PLAYER WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AS FLURRY/DRIZZLE
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE WITH AREA METARS SHOWING VSBYS
ALL HIGHER THAN 5SM. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY
SATURATED BLYR TODAY EXPECTING STRATUS DECK TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
THE VALLEY. COULD BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE HIGHER EAST AND
WEST PORTIONS OF THE FA SCT OUT FIRST AND THE VALLEYS TOPOGRAPHY
SLOWS EROSION OF THE STRATUS DECK. SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SOME SCT-BKN CIGS LATE AFTN.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING FOR
SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 5C IN THE WEST TO 1C IN THE EAST
WITH SOME SOLAR AND FAVORABLE SW WARMING SFC WIND. SHOULD MELT
SNOW AND REACH INTO THE 40S HWY 200 SOUTH AND FLIRT WITH 40 WHERE
SNOWPACK IS DEEPER WITH MN TREES WARMING EFFICIENTLY TO NEAR 50.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
WEAK FROPA TO BRING CHC FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
SAT PM. DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH AXIS CROSSING THE FA.
ANOTHER SNOW MELTING DAY IF WE CAN MAINTAIN GOOD SUN. MAY HAVE TO
BURN OF SOME FOG GIVEN WEAK SFC WINDS SUN AM.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS CANADA. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY (WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CANADIAN SYSTEM)...THEN BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY.
THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FAST MOVING WEAK UPPER WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FEEL CURRENT MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS FROM THE VALLEY WEST WILL LIFT SOME
AND BECOME BROKEN BUT NOT LIKELY TO SCATTER OUT UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THIS EVENING THICKENING CI WILL SPREAD FROM W-E ACROSS THE FA
HOWEVER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
FA WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1111 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
QUICK UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY AREA CENTERED NEAR DICKINSON. EXPECT THIS AREA TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALSO WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A
BIT IN THE SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 AM MDT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WX CAMS
INDICATE VISIBILITIES IMPROVING IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER KDIK AND
KHEI ARE STILL A QUARTER AND HALF MILE RESPECTIVELY. WILL CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY FOR NOW AND CAN ALWAYS DROP IT EARLY IF VISIBILITIES
REBOUND QUICKLY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH STRATUS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AND WEST TO EAST. MADE SOME MINOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE. COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST LAST
NIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEARED BEFORE FOG DEVELOPED. ADJUSTED MORNING
TEMPERATURE RISE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD START.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
RECENT SNOW COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RADIATE INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRESH SURFACE MOISTURE SOURCE AND
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR UPDATES
ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EROSION OF
THE LOW CLOUDS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHERE THE
SKY HAS CLEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED. ONE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITY IS BEING REPORTED AT DICKINSON...BEACH AND IN BAKER
MONTANA. WEB CAMS ALSO SHOW DENSE FOG IN BELFIELD AND BOWMAN. WILL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL 16Z. HETTINGER IS
NEARING A CLEAR POCKET AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE TRYING TO FORECAST
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. THE HRRR SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECAST
SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UP UNTIL 16Z OR 17Z.
THEREAFTER...MIXING ENSUES AND CLOUDS/FOG WILL DISSIPATE RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CANADA
FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLICING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. THE
BEST FORCING RESIDES IN SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE GEM/GFS AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NAM/ECMWF SHOW SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW
FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SATURDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR PRECIP OCCURRING...SO THINK IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL.
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
STATEWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS (THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET) IS FORECAST TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S SOUTH.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (ECMWF) OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (GFS). FOR NOW INDICATED A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FORECAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A DAY 7 FORECAST. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR KDIK AT 16Z. KDIK REMAINS
AT A QUARTER MILE BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT
HOUR. ELSEWHERE...KISN AND KMOT HAVE CLEARED...WITH MVFR CEILINGS
REMAINING FOR KBIS AND KJMS. KBIS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR STATUS
THROUGH AROUND 18Z WITH KJMS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS UNTIL 21Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY AROUND 12Z IN OUR FAR EAST.
QUITE A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS UPSTREAM...AND HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST
THIS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...FEEL THAT EVEN IF WE DID GET SOME SUNNY BREAKS...WE WOULD
MIX AND STRATOCU WOULD REFORM. THUS THINKING TODAY IS A MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME CLEARING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER BY
LATER IN THE DAY. SOME FLURRIES ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING
OUT OF THE STRATUS...MAYBE EVEN A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
THE SATURATION DEPTH DECREASES AND WE POTENTIALLY LOSE ICE FORMATION
IN THE CLOUDS. THINK MOST OF THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING AS THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOMES TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY...WITH 25 TO 35 KTS AT
925 MB THIS MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING FROM WINDOM TO STORM LAKE...BUT GIVEN
THE BEST PRESSURE RISES STAY EAST OF THE AREA AND THE STRATUS
LIMITING MIXING...THINK WE WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW...SUSTAINED 20
TO 30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY 15 TO
25 MPH GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH. GIVEN THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...DO
NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH OF A VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BLOWING
SNOW...BUT SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS LIKELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS COINCIDE.
STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WENT
ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
WHERE WE HAVE SNOW COVER...WHERE TEENS SEEM PROBABLE. A WEAK WAVE
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER LATE TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY TO GET ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE GROUND. BUT THESE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
STEADY OFF OR SLOWLY RISE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
SOMEWHAT DIRTY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS SMALL PIECES OF
ENERGY BREAK AWAY FROM FROM ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY IS CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH IN AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH...BUT SOME ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE
TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE
QUITE LIMITED WITH WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.
GIVEN THIS IS THE CASE...THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS...SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID.
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE UP THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. WITH DEEPENING
LOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS
THROUGHOUT THE THE DAY.
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE EC AND GFS SUGGEST 925 HPA TEMPS WARM INTO
THE LOWERS 20S...AND HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS....BUT POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH IF WE ARE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY MIX. COULD BE THE WARMEST
DAY SINCE EARLY OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOTCHING 925 HPA TEMPS BACK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WITH DRY ENVIRONMENT...AM EXPECTING DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH COOLER YET UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING UP LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014
MVFR STRATUS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
PARTIAL CLEARING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AND THROUGH PARTS OF SW
MN/NW IA IS EXPECTED. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
GUSTY BENEATH THE STRATUS AS WELL...GENERALLY GUSTING IN 20-25KT
RANGE. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WE COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE...BUT WITH SOME MELTING SNOW ADDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...DECIDED TO LEAVE A MENTION OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOR
KFSD/KSUX DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...SO ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
359 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM OHIO TO LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
LOCAL MODELS BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 5PM. HRRR GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS AROUND 300 J/KG AT 19Z/3PM.
SURFACE AND 850 MB WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 850 MB WINDS ARE INITIALLY IN THE 40
TO 50 KNOT RANGE BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO 15 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. DEW POINTS LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY
MIDNIGHT WILL BE BACK DOWN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE
DRIER AIR WILL ADVANCE INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAD PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 10 MB IN 6 HOURS THROUGH 12Z/8AM
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS BUT EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 229 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND MILD AND DRY. FOLLOWING A COOL START WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
PEAKING NEAR NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
CLOSED LOW...WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP GENERATE A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY...RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN
THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE WITH GULF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND OVER LINGERING
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING
INSITU WEDGE WILL KEEP MONDAY WET AND GLOOMY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND INSITU WEDGE EASTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AREAS TO
THE FAR WEST WILL HAVE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN BUT COULD SEE THE BULK
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS FROM THE LOW TRACKING OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WEST WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50
OF AN INCH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRESSURE FALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WOULD SUGGEST WEDGE WILL ERODE BY MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY REDUCE THESE PRESSURE FALL AND KEEP THE WEDGE
OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IF THIS WEDGE REMAINS...LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR RAIN ENTERING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
HANGING ON ALL DAY MONDAY. POPS CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST AS BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY EXITS EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE NOT GIVING UP ON WINTER JUST YET. THEY ARE BRINGING
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF INTO A CLOSED
LOW...ACROSS THE GULF STATES TUESDAY THEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR A COLD RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECM KEEPS BULK...IF NOT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF AND THEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS HAPPENS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE WITH
IT...WITH A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DID
COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT WEDNESDAY...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE P-TYPE. RIGHT
NOW...TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARY LAYER ARE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY.
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ARE REDUCED TO WESTERN SLOPES FOLLOWING
THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZES...DRIZZLE- PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
THE LIKELY P-TYPE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE
A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS
ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SHALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT LYH AND ROA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST AREA GETS
INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN.
AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL CROSS
THROUGH ROA BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE 18Z
START OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND WILL SHIFT AT KLYH
AROUND 19Z/3PM. HRRR AND INSTABILITY ANALYSIS SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED SOME THUNDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE KDAN
AIRPORT THROUGH 8PM.
THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE
OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD REACH BLF/LWB AROUND 5PM...BCB/ROA AT
7-8PM...AND LYH/DAN BY MIDNIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF
40KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD VFR.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN...AS WELL AS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS/JJM
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
207 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WET WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...
RADAR TRENDS SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVED EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SPC
ANALYSIS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. LIFTED INDEX VALUES WERE ALSO LOWERING
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT EAST OF DANVILLE WHERE THERE HAS BEEN
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.
THE SHALLOW WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH EVEN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES
CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN THE SOUTHEAST...
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS WILL THEN HEAD DOWNHILL...A COOLER DRIER AIRMASS
OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SATURDAY...SLOWED A LITTLE BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH
CENTER WILL SLIDE EAST ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST. DYNAMICS AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF REACH OUR AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SLOWLY INCREASE POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID
30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY
AND REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY. A CLOUDY AND RAINY MONDAY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER
40S IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER ILLINOIS TUESDAY MORNING WILL OPEN UP
AND TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SHALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT LYH AND ROA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST AREA GETS
INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN.
AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL CROSS
THROUGH ROA BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE 18Z
START OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND WILL SHIFT AT KLYH
AROUND 19Z/3PM. HRRR AND INSTABILITY ANALYSIS SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED SOME THUNDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE KDAN
AIRPORT THROUGH 8PM.
THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE
OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD REACH BLF/LWB AROUND 5PM...BCB/ROA AT
7-8PM...AND LYH/DAN BY MIDNIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF
40KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD VFR.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD RAIN...AS WELL AS
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1121 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
FLAT TRANSITORY RIDGE AND DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING.
LATEST FOG PRODUCT SHOWS SOME STRATUS/FOG EAST OF A CRAWFORD TO
ALLIANCE LINE. HRRR SHOWS THESE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HANGING
AROUND UNTIL AROUND 9 AM BEFORE LIFTING. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FLATTER WITH THE TRANSITORY RIDGING TODAY AND EVEN SHOWS WK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH IS NR
THE UT/WY STATELINE THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE ENE REACHING
NORTHEAST WYOMING BY THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES FOR A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THINK THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND REMAIN VIRGA AS THE 30+F
SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 40S WEST AND 50S TO MAYBE NR 60 OUT ON THE
ERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS WELL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
IN AND AROUND VIRGA SHOWERS. FLOW BACKS OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ADDL COOLING IN THE
MID-LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH...EXPECT INSTABILITIES TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE TO CONVECTION SATURDAY. DONT THINK THAT THE AREA WILL
SEE MUCH BEFORE NOON SATURDAY...WITH COVERAGE TO INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES WILL FALL TO AROUND -1C DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE BUMPED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 INTO THE
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY IN ADDITION TO ADDING ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR
SATURDAY...WITH LOW 60S A GOOD BET ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WRN PANHANDLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SOME SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...THE SRN ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS LEAVING
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF A 140+
KNOT H3 JET STREAK DIVING SOUTH OF BC/ALBERTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. ADDED THUNDER MENTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS FOR
SNOW AMOUNTS...THE HIER ELEVATIONS OF SNOWY/SIERRA MADRES WILL SEE
ANOTHER 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS
OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANY
ADVECTION IS NEGLIGIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
LONG RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT THEN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
IN ADDITION...BY DAY 7 AND 8 MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT SOLUTION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
DURING THE WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING FROM PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW TO COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE AND BUILDS NORTHWARD. ALL MODELS STILL SHOW A
DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTHWARD EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOW A BIT STRONGER WITH A MORE
DEFINED COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST QPF VALUES
ARE A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
JET AND MORE INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES OVER 500 J/KG INTO EARLY MONDAY.
INCREASED POP BETWEEN 40 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE RIDGES. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH INTO MONDAY WITH COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LLVL INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S
DURING THE DAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING EASTWARD OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INCREASING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. SOME READING
IN THE LOW 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR EASTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THIS RIDGE QUICKLY WEAKENING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM LAST NIGHTS 00Z MODEL
RUNS. THIS GENERAL INCONSISTENCY BEYOND DAY 6 HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ALL WINTER LONG WHEN MODELS HAVE INDICATED A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW
SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS GENERALLY
18 TO 24 HOURS LATER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF. STARTED TO INCREASE POP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY. FURTHER OUT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE 2ND WEEKEND OF
APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL AERODROMES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS FROM INCREASING MOISTURE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 4 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
40S WEST AND 50S EAST. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS RETURNING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY
AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN