Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/02/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
413 PM PDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL LINGER EARLY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA, WEDNESDAY WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS BY WITH SOME SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WELL IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BULK OF THIS WEEKS EXCITING WEATHER IS
COMING TO AN END. A RATHER POTENT BUT WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE MENDOCINO COAST AND TRACK
AWAY FROM NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WERE SOME REPORTS
OF LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL ALONG THE SRN MENDOCINO COAST,
ACCOMPANYING THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGEST CELLS TODAY WERE SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT FORTUNATELY THESE STAYED OFFSHORE.
THE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME DECENT INSTABILITY, BY COASTAL
CALIFORNIA STANDARDS, IN THE FORM OF 400-700 J/KG MUCAPE,
ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL HELICITIES. HI-RES MODELS KEEP THIS
INSTABILITY LIMITED TO THE SRN MENDO COAST UNTIL AROUND 03Z THIS
EVENING, SO WE KEPT THE SLGT CHC OF THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL THERE.
HOWEVER, LOOKING AT RADAR AND SATELLITE, THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY
STRONGER SHOWERS HAS LIKELY ALREADY CLOSED AND IF WE SEE ANYTHING
THERE IT WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND BRIEF. ANOTHER SPOT TO WATCH
MIGHT BE NORTHERN DEL NORTE WHERE SOME SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED FOR A
LITTLE INSTABILITY AND SOME PERKIER SHOWERS...HOWEVER HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND LESSENING DAYTIME HEATING IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO LIMIT
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ONLY OTHER FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING
WOULD BE LOWER SNOW LEVELS, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL WET SNOWFLAKES
REPORTED DOWN AS LOW AS 2300 FEET TODAY. HOWEVER ANY ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET, AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO MAY
ACCUMULATE ABOVE THAT LEVEL BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF LATER
THIS EVENING.
KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING GOING FOR THE NORTH COAST INTERIOR AND MENDO
INTERIOR, AND THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH COASTAL PLAIN, BUT
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR THE MENDO COAST. CLOUDCOVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILDER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING, BUT AS SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT, FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST INLAND SPOTS OF
THE NORTH COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER. THURSDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS BY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND CARRY
MINIMAL IMPACT. MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW SLOWLY THE NORTH COAST WILL
DRY OUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SO LEFT SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS THERE.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ABOUT 20 DEGREES INLAND FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY, WITH 5 TO 10
DEGREES OF WARMING POSSIBLE AT THE COAST. AAD
&&
.AVIATION...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. IN GENERAL MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR...THOUGH SOME LIMITED CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOWER CIGS ARE LIKELY AT RIDGE TOP AIRPORTS THROUGH
THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN CLEARING
CONDITIONS. VFR WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. RPA
&&
.MARINE...A STORM SYSTEM CIRCULATING JUST OFF THE NW CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN AND TURN
OUT OF THE NORTH. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WEST COAST. A WEAK
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS ON THURSDAY BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS
FOR MODERATE NW SWELLS AND LOW WINDS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A FLAT RIDGE SET UP OVER
THE WEST COAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SWAN AND ENP INDICATE TWO LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BUILD INTO THE
WATERS THIS WEEK. THE LONGEST PERIOD SWELL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND BEGINNING AROUND 20 SECONDS AT 2-3 FEET AND
THEN BUILD TO 5 FT AT 17 SECONDS. THIS WOULD BRING A SHOALING HAZARD
TO THE INNER WATERS. A VERY SLIGHT SNEAKER WAVE THREAT MAY ALSO BE
PRESENT BUT WITH ANOTHER SWELL STILL MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INTERFERENCE TO REDUCE THE THREAT
ALMOST COMPLETELY. THUS NO MENTION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HWO.
RPA
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ001.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ003-076.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ455-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ470.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
327 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. TWO PERIODS OF WET WEATHER WILL OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
STORM EXITS TO THE EAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE-LADEN STORM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP
ROLLING THROUGH STANISLAUS COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO MERCED
COUNTY. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TRYING TO MOISTEN-UP...
PRECIP WILL BEGIN FALLING BEFORE 500 PM PDT. MOREOVER...WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO SANTA CRUZ/SANTA CLARA...THE CHANCES
OF WET WEATHER HITTING MERCED ARE VERY GOOD. AHEAD OF TODAY/S COLD
FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WILL EXPECT WINDS
TO WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH THE 35 TO 45 MPH SPEED THRESHOLD FOR
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE LACK OF RAIN OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL MAKE BLOW DUST A BIG PROBLEM FROM RIDGECREST TO
ROSAMOND AND BORON. THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL HAS THE WINDS
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL AT AROUND 200 PM PDT AND ENDING AT
AROUND 10 PM PDT TONIGHT.
BEYOND THE WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM...RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE DISTRICT TONIGHT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC
MODELS TIME THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO NEAR 400 PM PDT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CURRENT ESTIMATES
HAVE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE VALLEY
AND 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.
WHILE SNOW MAY NOT STICK TO THE ROAD OVER TEJON PASS...THE
GRAPEVINE WAS INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLICK
ROADS MAKING DRIVING DIFFICULT.
AFTER TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT...THE MAIN AREA OF ENERGY MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING 500MB TEMP OF
MINUS 28 DEG-C PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK WIND
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO TEMPORARY DRY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER
STORM. WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SEE THE LAST OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS
WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE CURRENT LONGER RANGE
PROGS SHOW THE THIRD STORM MOVING FURTHER NORTH...SOME OF ITS
ENERGY COULD REACH THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY...WILL PLACE A MENTION
OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AND ACROSS
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE NEXT STORM AND
FINALIZE THIS NEXT STORM AFTERWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA BY 03Z TUE WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN 03Z TUE AND 00Z WED. MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND
ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS FROM 03Z
TUESDAY...CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z WED OVER MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
BLOWING DUST...WITH VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW A MILE AT TIMES...IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER
WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND IN KERN COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SIERRA
CREST THIS EVENING.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 03-31 89:1966 50:1967 58:1986 31:1905
KFAT 04-01 90:1966 49:1982 56:1939 32:1975
KFAT 04-02 87:1985 56:1907 57:2011 34:1982
KBFL 03-31 90:2003 50:1925 60:1969 32:1908
KBFL 04-01 88:2011 54:1998 62:1900 32:1917
KBFL 04-02 90:1985 57:1981 60:2002 35:1999
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
TUESDAY CAZ096-097.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PDT
TUESDAY CAZ095.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ095.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ089-091.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...BSO/INIGUEZ
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1123 AM PDT Mon Mar 31 2014
.Synopsis...
A cold Pacific storm will bring more precipitation to Interior
NorCal into Wednesday with snow levels lowering into the foothills
tonight into Tuesday. There is the threat of some Valley/Delta
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening and again on Tuesday. Later
this week, a weak system moves through the region and may bring
some light amounts of precipitation.
&&
.Discussion...
Cold negative tilt trough with a surface cold front is moving
onshore this morning with precipitation spreading through the
Coastal Mountains and into the rest of the area by this afternoon.
Afternoon/evening thunderstorms in the Valley and Delta are
possible. Lightning and visible satellite shows convection already just
off the coast of Monterrey this morning. Some stronger storms are beginning
to develop right along the coast. Early afternoon thunderstorms may
develop with the front.
Low level shear behind the front by late afternoon looks
relatively strong in the Valley south of Red Bluff, so there is
some potential for stronger, rotating storms in the post frontal
environment. HRRR model shows a surface Cape bullseye around 350
J/KG, centered roughly around Yuba City. Spotters should be aware
of the possibility of some isolated severe thunderstorms late in
the day/early evening. Small hail with these cold storms would be
the main threat, with locally heavy rain and gusty winds. With
decent shear, can not rule out the possibility of a few funnel
clouds and even an isolated tornado isn`t out of the question.
Winter Storm Warnings for the mountains and advisory for low snow
in the foothills is on track. Snow should peak over the coastal
mountains this afternoon, this evening over the Sierra. Snow
totals of 1-2 feet are possible at higher elevations.
Convective threat will continue across the region Tuesday, and
appears there will be a conditional severe weather threat once
again for the Central Valley depending on any localized surface
heating as forecast soundings show increasing vertical wind shear
(speed and directional), however ongoing widespread convection
with mid-level cold pool aloft overhead (-30C to -32C at 500 mbs)
may greatly limit this potential.
Upper trough forecast to shift south of the region later Tuesday
night into Wednesday with a decreasing threat of showers across
NorCal. Short-wave ridging forecast to briefly move over NorCal
Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of a much weaker trough moving
in for later Thursday.
&&
.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
Models differ with strength of short wave trough/low progged to move
across the area on Friday. ECMWF-HiRes showing a stronger close
upper low while the GFS/GEM progging a weaker trough. Have leaned
towards the ADJMRA for this time period for now, advertising slight
chance to chance POPs, with best chances of precip expected over
the mountains. Models then similar in building upper ridging from
EPAC over Interior NorCal through the weekend into Monday with dry
weather and warming. High temperatures climb into the mid to upper
70s in the Central Valley towards the end of the extended period
with 50s to low 70s for the mountains and foothills.
&&
.Aviation...
Deteriorating conditions today as a cold frontal system moves
into the area bringing precipitation and gusty winds. For the TAF
sites in the Central Valley VFR/MVFR conditions with areas of IFR
developing aft 18a. Isold Thunderstorms possible after 22z.
Southerly surface wind to 25kts with local gusts up to 35 kts until
03z Tuesday. Over Coastal and Shasta Mountains widespread MVFR/IFR
with areas of LIFR conditions and snow levels around 3000 feet
lowering to around 2000 ft aft 06z Tuesday. Over Northern Sierra
and Western Plumas County IFR/LIFR conditions with snow levels
around 4000 ft lowering to around 2500 ft aft 06z Tuesday.
Southwest surface wind gusts up to 50 kts possible.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter storm warning until 11 am pdt tuesday west slope northern
sierra nevada...western plumas county/lassen park.
winter storm warning until 5 am pdt tuesday above 3500 feet in
the mountains southwestern shasta county to northern lake
county...shasta lake area / northern shasta county.
winter weather advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 5 am pdt
tuesday burney basin / eastern shasta county.
winter weather advisory from 8 pm this evening to 11 am pdt
tuesday above 2500 feet in the clear lake/southern lake county...
motherlode...northeast foothills/sacramento valley.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
905 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Just made a few tweaks to the grids this evening. The main feature
to highlight is the areas of dense fog that may develop after
midnight in the western Florida Panhandle and spread northeast
through shortly after sunrise. Current dewpoint depressions along
the coastal Florida Panhandle are around 4-5 degrees, so further
cooling overnight will only close this gap priming the air mass
for fog formation. Surface high pressure will set up over the
Florida Panhandle overnight allowing winds to go calm, possibly
completely decoupling. Therefore with the conditions coming
together for fog formation, have decided to include areas of dense
fog in the weather grids. Hi-res guidance such as the HRRR and
locally run WRFs as well as SREF and NARRE probabilities are
consistently showing dense fog with visibilities less than 1/4
mile. Although confidence is high in the probability of meeting
advisory criteria for fog, the confidence in where exactly this
will occur isn`t as high. Otherwise expect a clear cool night
with temperatures bottoming out in the mid to upper 40s except
along the immediate coast which will reach the lower 50s.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday] VFR conditions will hold at the terminals
through the evening and early morning hours, but a low level
moistening trend from the Gulf of Mexico is leading towards a much
more pessimistic trend in the fcst before sunrise. The Hi-Res
guidance from the HRRR and the NARRE are both indicating the
potential for dense fog across at least the SW 1/2 of the CWA, so
continued with a downward trend in the Tafs for this package. Now
have ECP, DHN, and TLH reaching LIFR levels before dawn on Wed. with
ABY at MVFR to borderline IFR conditions, and VLD at MVFR levels.
Expect the fog and low cigs to lift and burn off fairly quickly,
with most locations back at VFR levels by 13 or 14 UTC.
&&
.Prev Discussion [232 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
Deep layer ridging will prevail through the short range forecast.
Expect above average afternoon highs, and moderating overnight
lows as southerly flow will gradually raise dewpoints through the
period. Scattered cloud cover, patchy morning fog, and no rain
should be expected.
.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
A series of shortwave troughs will impact the Tri-State region
throughout the extended range forecast. The first of which will
pass through the Southeast on Friday, with the best dynamics
expected to remain to our north. There may be a brief period in the
morning hours where a broad low-level jet could increase the
potential for a quick shot at severe storms, however, at that time
little instability is expected. Our best chance for stronger
storms will be early next week with the second system as the
shortwave is forecast to dig deeper into the Southeast, with the
surface low forecast to skirt the northern Gulf coast. Regardless
of the evolution of severe weather, expect two rounds of showers
through the period. The first will be Friday evening through
Saturday, with the second round Monday through Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain near average on both sides of the clock
Friday through Tuesday.
.Marine...
Winds and seas will likely remain below headline levels through
the weekend. Early next week a strong frontal system will yield at
least cautionary conditions across our Gulf waters.
.Fire Weather...
A gradual moistening trend will commence on Wednesday keeping RH
above critical levels. Dispersion indices will be on the high side,
in some case over 75, over the next two afternoons. Wetting rains
are possible from Friday into early next week as the pattern becomes
more unsettled with the arrival of a front.
.Hydrology...
The Apalachicola at Blountstown is currently at 16.2 feet and will
remain in minor flood stage until Wednesday night. The Choctawhatchee
River at Caryville is currently at 12.4 feet and will remain in
minor flood stage until Wednesday afternoon. The Choctawhatchee at
Bruce is forecast to reach minor flood stage Wednesday evening.
Elsewhere...several other rivers in the CWA remain in action stage.
The next chance for rain is on Friday.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 44 84 54 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 56 72 61 70 62 / 0 0 10 10 10
Dothan 50 82 57 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 49 84 56 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 48 85 57 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 48 83 54 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 54 72 60 71 61 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NAVARRO/LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014/
ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR LOWER DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. VERY DRY JUST OFF THE SURFACE...AND WITH MIXING
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. MAV/MET APPEAR TOO HIGH IN
DEWPOINTS AND THE LATEST RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLING AT
THE MIXING.
17
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014/
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME ON TUESDAY AS THE WEAK TRAILING END OF A SHORT WAVE
PASSES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORT WAVE HAS LIMITED MOISTURE..SO
EXPECT NO RAIN WITH IT BUT MAYBE SOME CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MAV/MET TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE NOT DEVIATED
MUCH. FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.
41
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH LATE WEEK. STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM
IN TERMS OF BOTH THE POSITIONING OF FEATURES AND TIMING. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND QUICKER WITH PUSHING
THE FRONT THROUGH. BOTH MODELS BRING THE PRECIP IN ON FRIDAY BUT
THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND DOESNT PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON
SATURDAY AND THUS THE GFS APPEARS TO INDICATE A FRIDAY AFTERNOON
TO SATURDAY EVENT IN TERMS OF THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. FORECAST
TRENDS TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. GFS SHOWS THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY FRIDAY EVENING WITH 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NW GA.
IN ADDITION IT PEGS AROUND 30 KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS N GA.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR WITH THE SYSTEM DECREASES...INSTABILITY IS
ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEED TO BE MONITORED.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
/ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014/
FUELS HAVE DRIED AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIP TO 25 PERCENT
OR LESS FOR AROUND 4 HOURS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS MAY BE BORDERLINE FOR HUMIDITY.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TO NEAR CALM WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST. CIRRUS WILL THICKEN ACROSS
NORTH GA TONIGHT AND THEN EXIT TUESDAY MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 46 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 74 52 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 73 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 75 43 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 75 47 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 73 49 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 75 41 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 75 43 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 75 40 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 77 49 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR LOWER DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. VERY DRY JUST OFF THE SURFACE...AND WITH MIXING
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. MAV/MET APPEAR TOO HIGH IN
DEWPOINTS AND THE LATEST RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLING AT
THE MIXING.
17
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014/
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME ON TUESDAY AS THE WEAK TRAILING END OF A SHORT WAVE
PASSES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORT WAVE HAS LIMITED MOISTURE..SO
EXPECT NO RAIN WITH IT BUT MAYBE SOME CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MAV/MET TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE NOT DEVIATED
MUCH. FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.
41
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH LATE WEEK. STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM
IN TERMS OF BOTH THE POSITIONING OF FEATURES AND TIMING. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND QUICKER WITH PUSHING
THE FRONT THROUGH. BOTH MODELS BRING THE PRECIP IN ON FRIDAY BUT
THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND DOESNT PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON
SATURDAY AND THUS THE GFS APPEARS TO INDICATE A FRIDAY AFTERNOON
TO SATURDAY EVENT IN TERMS OF THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. FORECAST
TRENDS TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. GFS SHOWS THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY FRIDAY EVENING WITH 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NW GA.
IN ADDITION IT PEGS AROUND 30 KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS N GA.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR WITH THE SYSTEM DECREASES...INSTABILITY IS
ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEED TO BE MONITORED.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
/ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014/
FUELS HAVE DRIED AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIP TO 25 PERCENT
OR LESS FOR AROUND 4 HOURS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS MAY BE BORDERLINE FOR HUMIDITY.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10KT THIS MORNING THEN
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 46 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 74 52 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 73 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 75 43 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 75 47 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 73 49 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 75 41 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 75 43 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 75 40 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 77 49 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JASPER...JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TOWNS...
TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1036 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FRONT WILL GET PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY BASED ON RADAR MOSAIC AND HRRR TRENDS.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND REQUIRED ONLY A FEW
TWEAKS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
MODEL DATA SUGGEST OVERRUNNING TO THE NORTH OF FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP AFTER
DARK. STARTING TO SEE PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AS THIS PROCESS BEGINS TO DEVELOP. LIFT DOESN/T APPEAR ALL THAT
STRONG AT THIS TIME AND AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY INITIALLY...BUT THE
PRECIPITATION BEARING LAYER COMES CLOSE TO SATURATION LATER TONIGHT.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AFTER 020200Z OR SO.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATES THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT
LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART. LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD. SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST
BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. BROAD WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP A WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW GIVE THE FRONT A
KICK TO THE EAST.
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET AS GOOD MOISTURE FLOW OFF
THE GULF IMPINGES ON THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HARD TO TIME
THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ALONG THE FRONT AT THIS TIME...BUT IT APPEARS
FROM THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THE BEST
LIFT/MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BRING IN HIGHER POPS STARTING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND KEEP THEM GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN MAIN TROUGH
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE
STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS WELL ABOVE NORMAL POOL ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE.
MODEL DATA SUGGEST STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY MAKE A COUPLE OF
INCURSIONS INTO THE AREA...AROUND WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT THIS TIME
APPEARS ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...SO THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION AROUND THE TIMES THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVE THROUGH.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY TRICKY AS TIME GOES BY
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT. OVERALL...THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...BUT THE
NUMBERS ARE CERTAINLY ATTAINABLE IN AREAS THAT END UP SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE. FOR NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS
UNTIL THE FRONTAL POSITION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SLOWS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...ALLOWING COOL AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THUS HAVE
INCLUDED POPS THROUGH MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS TROUGH AS IT IS
ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z KIND TAF/...
ISSUED AT 952 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS BEING MADE. SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
IN VICINITY ABOUT 20 MINUTES EARLIER THAN FORECAST 0203000Z. OTHER
WEATHER ELEMENTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 657 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014...
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD THOUGH MVFR VSBY SHOULD DEVELOP
AFTER 021800Z WITH ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER RAIN.
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT 012300Z MOVING ENE
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE AT TAF SITES A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED SO HAVE ADJUSTED START TIMES FOR SHOWERS IN VICINITY
BETWEEN 020300Z-020600Z. CLOUD DECKS REMAINING ABOVE 4500 FEET
WITH THESE SHOWERS. VSBY IN RAINY AREAS UNRESTRICTED AND EXPECT
THAT TO CONTINUE GIVEN DRY AIR COLUMN IN PLACE AS RAIN PRESSES IN.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THIS INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
ENE AND EXIT TO OHIO AROUND 021200Z AS WINDS VEER FROM WEST
THROUGH NORTH AND EVENTUALLY TO EAST AS RAIN ENDS BUT CLOUD DECK
REMAINS.
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES IN AROUND 021800Z AND SHOULD PRODUCE A MORE
STEADY PERIOD OF RAIN LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITY AS CLOUD DECK
SLOWLY LOWERS TO AROUND 3000 FT.
ONCE WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 10 KNOTS AT START OF THIS FORECAST
THEY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...TUCEK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
301 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WAS OVER
NORTHEAST NE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS IT REACHED THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE
DRY/CLEAR SLOT OVER MUCH OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW N/S
ORIENTED CU FIELD JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST STARTING
TO DEVELOP AROUND 19Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN WI BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING.
STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING THEN TURN WESTERLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER NIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE LOW WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THE
STRONGER PRESSURE RISES WILL ALSO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT SO WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY.
MESO MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY IN SHOWING A SECOND LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE DRY
SLOT OVER CENTRAL IOWA...ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE MODELS BRING THE
PRECIPITATION EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE CU DEVELOPMENT
ONGOING OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED CAPES. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE
LINE. IF THIS OCCURS THEN THE STRONGER STORMS MAY HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONSIDERING THE STRONG
ENVIRONMENT WINDS AND DEEP/DRY SUB CLOUD BASE LAYER. LOW WEB BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7KFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME SUB SEVERE HAIL.
THE THREAT OF THE STRONGER STORMS IS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SINCE THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS IT
NEARS THE MISSISSIPPI.
COLDER AIR POURING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD LATE TONIGHT AND LIFT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY BASED ON
MIXING UP TO 900MB.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN WITH STRONG SYSTEM MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ONE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY...AN INTENSE DIGGING UPPER LOW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
LOOPS SWIRLING OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS HAS A 130 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR
CUMULUS...INDICATIVE OF A VERY COLD POCKET ALOFT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE IN
SOUTHEAST CO. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE WITH AN EXCELLENT FEED OFF
THE WESTERN GULF. WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MO SETTING
UP AN IDEAL UPGLIDE OF THE DEEPENING MOISTURE...AND ALLOWING FOR RAIN
TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER ALL THE CWA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. I WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH POPS WHICH HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT
SIGNAL FOR DAYS NOW. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN ON THURSDAY AS
THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THIS REGARD. COPIOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS TRENDING A BIT SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF TAKES THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
CYCLONE INTO EASTERN IA TO NORTHERN LAKE MI WHILE THE GFS HAS THE
LOW TRACKING INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA AND THEN TO NEAR CHICAGO.
EITHER SOLUTION OFFERS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME THE DEFORMATION ZONE
PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE DVN CWA.
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS TO
3 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. (WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE FROST IS PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE GROUND SO AS
TO ALLOW THE RAIN TO SOAK IN...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO ISSUES).
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY WITH THE WEEKEND DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WELL
ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY (ECMWF)...BUT
MUCH WEAKER (GFS). IF THE LATEST RUNS VERIFY THEN TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK MAY BE TOO WARM AND THE ALL BLEND WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK AWAY.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP
STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 30 TO
35KTS WILL BE COMMON. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 COULD SEE GUSTS
EXCEED 40KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 03Z.
THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBSY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND WILL REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1122 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY FROM
RAWLINS...RED WILLOW...SHERIDAN AND DECATUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THERE IS NOTICEABLE STREAKS OF DUST EVIDENT OVER
THESE COUNTIES. EXPECT THE LOW VISIBILITIES TO PROGRESS EAST INTO
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES THIS MORNING SO CHOSE TO INCLUDE THEM
IN THE DUST STORM WARNING AS WELL. ALSO INCLUDED HITCHCOCK COUNTY
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OF DUST STEAKS. WOULD EXPECT THE DUST
TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE
FURTHER EAST.
THE WORST VISIBILITIES WILL BE SOUTH OF TILLED FIELDS AND DIRT
ROADS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 811 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
EXPANDED HIGH WIND WARNING TO INCLUDE NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
SINCE NORTON IS CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 53 KNOTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE HAD AT ATLEAST A COUPLE REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
THIS MORNING...ONE AT WRAY ABOUT 90 MINUTES AGO AND ANOTHER AT
ATWOOD ABOUT 11 MINUTES AGO. HAVE ALSO HAD 2 REPORTS JUST UNDER
WARNING CRITERIA...ONE AT YUMA AND ANOTHER AT MCCOOK. THESE REPORTS
DO MAKE SINCE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE 500MB TROUGH WHICH HAS ITS
BASE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH IS
WHERE THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE WILL BE. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA SINCE THE BASE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE THAT FAR SOUTH. ALSO EXCLUDED NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES SINCE THE 500MB TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST BEFORE IT
GETS TO THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
EXPECT WINDS TO DECLINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER
WINDS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY DOWNGRADE THE
CURRENT WARNING TO AN ADVISORY BY THEN...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY KEPT
THE DURATION OF THE WARNING THE SAME AS THE ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY 2 HOURS SOONER
(BASICALLY NOW) GIVEN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH 1W YUMA AND 49 MPH IN
WRAY AT THE AWOS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE. RUC 800MB WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH
50-60KTS THROUGH 17Z OR SO ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS AREA ALSO UNDER MORE CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD
LIMIT FULL MIXING BUT ON THE OTHER HAND RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA SO THE STRONGER WINDS MAY COME FROM THAT.
WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT WRAY
AWOS (K2V5).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. A SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE WINDS AND THREAT OF
BLOWING DUST. BLENDED MAV/MET/LAMP WINDS ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM
LOCAL WIND PROGRAM. THIS IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
36KT TO 46KT RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS WE ARE
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA (50KTS) GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
KS/NE BORDER. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALREADY ADVERTISED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE EAST
AND SOUTHERLY PARTS OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
AM CONCERNED A BIT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER DESPITE SFC HIGH NOSING INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL CREATE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND LEOTI WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE CO/KS
BORDER. WINDS BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
NARROW SLIVER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
FEEL THAT THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
YUMA COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...UPPER
50S WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO
MID 30S EAST.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUS NOW TURNS TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH DAY THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN A TRANSITION
TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS
TO BE UNDER AN INCH AT PRESENT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TROUGH PASSAGE THU...WHILE GEM IS STILL
SLOWER/STRONGER/FURTHER NORTH. FINER DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER OVERALL TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF PRECIP AND COOLER
TEMPS. I BUMPED POPS UP (50 PERCENT NORTH) AND LOWERED HIGHS
(40-45F). BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/PRECIP
THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS TEMP
PROFILES WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SATURATION TO WET BULB TEMP WOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX OR COMPLETE SNOW CHANGEOVER THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. I TIED RAIN/SNOW MIX TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR SIMPLICITY
SAKE...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO FINE TUNE THIS AS WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON DAYTIME TEMPS AND AXIS OF PRECIP. THIS CHANGE OVER
ALSO IMPACTS SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH ALL SNOW POSSIBLY PUTTING US WITHIN
ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I-70 (3-5"). CURRENT FORECAST IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS SINCE IT IS FAVORING MORE OF A MIX/LIQUID
EVENT...JUST ANOTHER THING WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION
TO SPLIT FLOW...SHIFTING THE NORTHERN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH AND
EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT. WE SHOULD
ALSO SEE A RETURN OF SEASONAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IS ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY WHEN ECMWF
SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK
AND MOVES THIS TROUGH FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS KS. GFS IS WEAKER AND
FAVORS SUNDAY FOR PRECIP CHANCES. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
DURING THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
SOME MVFR CIG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AT KMCK DUE TO BLOWING DUST NEARBY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
40 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING 15 PERCENT. RIGHT NOW AM JUST ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITE. WINDS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 40 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.
TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES (GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON) FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET. CURRENTLY HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO 16-17%. THESE LOW VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-013-014.
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-
015-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090-091.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ092.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
850 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY FROM
RAWLINS...RED WILLOW...SHERIDAN AND DECATUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THERE IS NOTICEABLE STREAKS OF DUST EVIDENT OVER
THESE COUNTIES. EXPECT THE LOW VISIBILITIES TO PROGRESS EAST INTO
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES THIS MORNING SO CHOSE TO INCLUDE THEM
IN THE DUST STORM WARNING AS WELL. ALSO INCLUDED HITCHCOCK COUNTY
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OF DUST STEAKS. WOULD EXPECT THE DUST
TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE
FURTHER EAST.
THE WORST VISIBILITIES WILL BE SOUTH OF TILLED FIELDS AND DIRT
ROADS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 811 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
EXPANDED HIGH WIND WARNING TO INCLUDE NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
SINCE NORTON IS CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 53 KNOTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE HAD AT ATLEAST A COUPLE REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
THIS MORNING...ONE AT WRAY ABOUT 90 MINUTES AGO AND ANOTHER AT
ATWOOD ABOUT 11 MINUTES AGO. HAVE ALSO HAD 2 REPORTS JUST UNDER
WARNING CRITERIA...ONE AT YUMA AND ANOTHER AT MCCOOK. THESE REPORTS
DO MAKE SINCE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE 500MB TROUGH WHICH HAS ITS
BASE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH IS
WHERE THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE WILL BE. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA SINCE THE BASE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE THAT FAR SOUTH. ALSO EXCLUDED NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES SINCE THE 500MB TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST BEFORE IT
GETS TO THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
EXPECT WINDS TO DECLINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER
WINDS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY DOWNGRADE THE
CURRENT WARNING TO AN ADVISORY BY THEN...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY KEPT
THE DURATION OF THE WARNING THE SAME AS THE ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY 2 HOURS SOONER
(BASICALLY NOW) GIVEN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH 1W YUMA AND 49 MPH IN
WRAY AT THE AWOS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE. RUC 800MB WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH
50-60KTS THROUGH 17Z OR SO ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS AREA ALSO UNDER MORE CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD
LIMIT FULL MIXING BUT ON THE OTHER HAND RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA SO THE STRONGER WINDS MAY COME FROM THAT.
WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT WRAY
AWOS (K2V5).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. A SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE WINDS AND THREAT OF
BLOWING DUST. BLENDED MAV/MET/LAMP WINDS ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM
LOCAL WIND PROGRAM. THIS IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
36KT TO 46KT RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS WE ARE
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA (50KTS) GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
KS/NE BORDER. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALREADY ADVERTISED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE EAST
AND SOUTHERLY PARTS OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
AM CONCERNED A BIT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER DESPITE SFC HIGH NOSING INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL CREATE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND LEOTI WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE CO/KS
BORDER. WINDS BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
NARROW SLIVER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
FEEL THAT THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
YUMA COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...UPPER
50S WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO
MID 30S EAST.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUS NOW TURNS TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH DAY THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN A TRANSITION
TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS
TO BE UNDER AN INCH AT PRESENT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TROUGH PASSAGE THU...WHILE GEM IS STILL
SLOWER/STRONGER/FURTHER NORTH. FINER DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER OVERALL TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF PRECIP AND COOLER
TEMPS. I BUMPED POPS UP (50 PERCENT NORTH) AND LOWERED HIGHS
(40-45F). BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/PRECIP
THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS TEMP
PROFILES WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SATURATION TO WET BULB TEMP WOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX OR COMPLETE SNOW CHANGEOVER THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. I TIED RAIN/SNOW MIX TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR SIMPLICITY
SAKE...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO FINE TUNE THIS AS WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON DAYTIME TEMPS AND AXIS OF PRECIP. THIS CHANGE OVER
ALSO IMPACTS SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH ALL SNOW POSSIBLY PUTTING US WITHIN
ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I-70 (3-5"). CURRENT FORECAST IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS SINCE IT IS FAVORING MORE OF A MIX/LIQUID
EVENT...JUST ANOTHER THING WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION
TO SPLIT FLOW...SHIFTING THE NORTHERN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH AND
EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT. WE SHOULD
ALSO SEE A RETURN OF SEASONAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IS ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY WHEN ECMWF
SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK
AND MOVES THIS TROUGH FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS KS. GFS IS WEAKER AND
FAVORS SUNDAY FOR PRECIP CHANCES. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
DURING THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY
HAVE MVFR/IFR CIGS IN BLOWING DUST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON BUT ITS TOO EARLY RIGHT NOW TO PINPOINT THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR IT TO IMPACT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...WEST WINDS 20 TO 25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z WITH AROUND 30KT
SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTING 40-45KTS THROUGH 20Z OR SO BEFORE VERY
SLOW DECREASING FROM 21Z TO 00Z TUESDAY. FOR TONIGHT SFC HIGH
MOVES IN WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 06Z
BECOMING NORTHEAST UNDER 5KTS AT KMCK...SOUTHEAST AROUND 6KTS AT
KGLD BY 12Z.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATE THIS MORNING BUT
ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
40 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING 15 PERCENT. RIGHT NOW AM JUST ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITE. WINDS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 40 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.
TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES (GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON) FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET. CURRENTLY HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO 16-17%. THESE LOW VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-013-014.
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-
015-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090-091.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ092.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
812 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 811 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
EXPANDED HIGH WIND WARNING TO INCLUDE NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
SINCE NORTON IS CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 53 KNOTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE HAD AT ATLEAST A COUPLE REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
THIS MORNING...ONE AT WRAY ABOUT 90 MINUTES AGO AND ANOTHER AT
ATWOOD ABOUT 11 MINUTES AGO. HAVE ALSO HAD 2 REPORTS JUST UNDER
WARNING CRITERIA...ONE AT YUMA AND ANOTHER AT MCCOOK. THESE REPORTS
DO MAKE SINCE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE 500MB TROUGH WHICH HAS ITS
BASE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH IS
WHERE THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE WILL BE. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA SINCE THE BASE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE THAT FAR SOUTH. ALSO EXCLUDED NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES SINCE THE 500MB TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST BEFORE IT
GETS TO THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
EXPECT WINDS TO DECLINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER
WINDS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY DOWNGRADE THE
CURRENT WARNING TO AN ADVISORY BY THEN...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY KEPT
THE DURATION OF THE WARNING THE SAME AS THE ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY 2 HOURS SOONER
(BASICALLY NOW) GIVEN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH 1W YUMA AND 49 MPH IN
WRAY AT THE AWOS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE. RUC 800MB WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH
50-60KTS THROUGH 17Z OR SO ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS AREA ALSO UNDER MORE CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD
LIMIT FULL MIXING BUT ON THE OTHER HAND RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA SO THE STRONGER WINDS MAY COME FROM THAT.
WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT WRAY
AWOS (K2V5).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. A SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE WINDS AND THREAT OF
BLOWING DUST. BLENDED MAV/MET/LAMP WINDS ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM
LOCAL WIND PROGRAM. THIS IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
36KT TO 46KT RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS WE ARE
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA (50KTS) GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
KS/NE BORDER. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALREADY ADVERTISED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE EAST
AND SOUTHERLY PARTS OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
AM CONCERNED A BIT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER DESPITE SFC HIGH NOSING INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL CREATE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND LEOTI WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE CO/KS
BORDER. WINDS BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
NARROW SLIVER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
FEEL THAT THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
YUMA COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...UPPER
50S WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO
MID 30S EAST.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUS NOW TURNS TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH DAY THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN A TRANSITION
TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS
TO BE UNDER AN INCH AT PRESENT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TROUGH PASSAGE THU...WHILE GEM IS STILL
SLOWER/STRONGER/FURTHER NORTH. FINER DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER OVERALL TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF PRECIP AND COOLER
TEMPS. I BUMPED POPS UP (50 PERCENT NORTH) AND LOWERED HIGHS
(40-45F). BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/PRECIP
THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS TEMP
PROFILES WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SATURATION TO WET BULB TEMP WOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX OR COMPLETE SNOW CHANGEOVER THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. I TIED RAIN/SNOW MIX TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR SIMPLICITY
SAKE...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO FINE TUNE THIS AS WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON DAYTIME TEMPS AND AXIS OF PRECIP. THIS CHANGE OVER
ALSO IMPACTS SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH ALL SNOW POSSIBLY PUTTING US WITHIN
ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I-70 (3-5"). CURRENT FORECAST IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS SINCE IT IS FAVORING MORE OF A MIX/LIQUID
EVENT...JUST ANOTHER THING WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION
TO SPLIT FLOW...SHIFTING THE NORTHERN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH AND
EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT. WE SHOULD
ALSO SEE A RETURN OF SEASONAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IS ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY WHEN ECMWF
SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK
AND MOVES THIS TROUGH FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS KS. GFS IS WEAKER AND
FAVORS SUNDAY FOR PRECIP CHANCES. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
DURING THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY
HAVE MVFR/IFR CIGS IN BLOWING DUST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON BUT ITS TOO EARLY RIGHT NOW TO PINPOINT THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR IT TO IMPACT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...WEST WINDS 20 TO 25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z WITH AROUND 30KT
SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTING 40-45KTS THROUGH 20Z OR SO BEFORE VERY
SLOW DECREASING FROM 21Z TO 00Z TUESDAY. FOR TONIGHT SFC HIGH
MOVES IN WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 06Z
BECOMING NORTHEAST UNDER 5KTS AT KMCK...SOUTHEAST AROUND 6KTS AT
KGLD BY 12Z.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATE THIS MORNING BUT
ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
40 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING 15 PERCENT. RIGHT NOW AM JUST ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITE. WINDS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 40 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.
TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES (GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON) FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET. CURRENTLY HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO 16-17%. THESE LOW VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090-091.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ092.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
744 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE HAD AT ATLEAST A COUPLE REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
THIS MORNING...ONE AT WRAY ABOUT 90 MINUTES AGO AND ANOTHER AT
ATWOOD ABOUT 11 MINUTES AGO. HAVE ALSO HAD 2 REPORTS JUST UNDER
WARNING CRITERIA...ONE AT YUMA AND ANOTHER AT MCCOOK. THESE REPORTS
DO MAKE SINCE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE 500MB TROUGH WHICH HAS ITS
BASE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH IS
WHERE THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE WILL BE. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA SINCE THE BASE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE THAT FAR SOUTH. ALSO EXCLUDED NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES SINCE THE 500MB TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST BEFORE IT
GETS TO THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
EXPECT WINDS TO DECLINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER
WINDS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY DOWNGRADE THE
CURRENT WARNING TO AN ADVISORY BY THEN...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY KEPT
THE DURATION OF THE WARNING THE SAME AS THE ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY 2 HOURS SOONER
(BASICALLY NOW) GIVEN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH 1W YUMA AND 49 MPH IN
WRAY AT THE AWOS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE. RUC 800MB WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH
50-60KTS THROUGH 17Z OR SO ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS AREA ALSO UNDER MORE CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD
LIMIT FULL MIXING BUT ON THE OTHER HAND RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA SO THE STRONGER WINDS MAY COME FROM THAT.
WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT WRAY
AWOS (K2V5).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. A SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE WINDS AND THREAT OF
BLOWING DUST. BLENDED MAV/MET/LAMP WINDS ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM
LOCAL WIND PROGRAM. THIS IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
36KT TO 46KT RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS WE ARE
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA (50KTS) GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
KS/NE BORDER. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALREADY ADVERTISED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE EAST
AND SOUTHERLY PARTS OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
AM CONCERNED A BIT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER DESPITE SFC HIGH NOSING INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL CREATE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND LEOTI WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE CO/KS
BORDER. WINDS BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
NARROW SLIVER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
FEEL THAT THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
YUMA COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...UPPER
50S WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO
MID 30S EAST.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUS NOW TURNS TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH DAY THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN A TRANSITION
TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS
TO BE UNDER AN INCH AT PRESENT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TROUGH PASSAGE THU...WHILE GEM IS STILL
SLOWER/STRONGER/FURTHER NORTH. FINER DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER OVERALL TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF PRECIP AND COOLER
TEMPS. I BUMPED POPS UP (50 PERCENT NORTH) AND LOWERED HIGHS
(40-45F). BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/PRECIP
THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS TEMP
PROFILES WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SATURATION TO WET BULB TEMP WOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX OR COMPLETE SNOW CHANGEOVER THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. I TIED RAIN/SNOW MIX TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR SIMPLICITY
SAKE...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO FINE TUNE THIS AS WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON DAYTIME TEMPS AND AXIS OF PRECIP. THIS CHANGE OVER
ALSO IMPACTS SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH ALL SNOW POSSIBLY PUTTING US WITHIN
ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I-70 (3-5"). CURRENT FORECAST IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS SINCE IT IS FAVORING MORE OF A MIX/LIQUID
EVENT...JUST ANOTHER THING WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION
TO SPLIT FLOW...SHIFTING THE NORTHERN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH AND
EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT. WE SHOULD
ALSO SEE A RETURN OF SEASONAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IS ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY WHEN ECMWF
SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK
AND MOVES THIS TROUGH FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS KS. GFS IS WEAKER AND
FAVORS SUNDAY FOR PRECIP CHANCES. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
DURING THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY
HAVE MVFR/IFR CIGS IN BLOWING DUST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON BUT ITS TOO EARLY RIGHT NOW TO PINPOINT THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR IT TO IMPACT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...WEST WINDS 20 TO 25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z WITH AROUND 30KT
SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTING 40-45KTS THROUGH 20Z OR SO BEFORE VERY
SLOW DECREASING FROM 21Z TO 00Z TUESDAY. FOR TONIGHT SFC HIGH
MOVES IN WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 06Z
BECOMING NORTHEAST UNDER 5KTS AT KMCK...SOUTHEAST AROUND 6KTS AT
KGLD BY 12Z.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATE THIS MORNING BUT
ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
40 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING 15 PERCENT. RIGHT NOW AM JUST ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITE. WINDS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 40 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.
TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES (GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON) FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET. CURRENTLY HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO 16-17%. THESE LOW VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-
016-027>029-041-042.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090-091.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ092.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
515 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY 2 HOURS SOONER
(BASICALLY NOW) GIVEN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH 1W YUMA AND 49 MPH IN
WRAY AT THE AWOS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE. RUC 800MB WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH
50-60KTS THROUGH 17Z OR SO ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS AREA ALSO UNDER MORE CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD
LIMIT FULL MIXING BUT ON THE OTHER HAND RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA SO THE STRONGER WINDS MAY COME FROM THAT.
WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT WRAY
AWOS (K2V5).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. A SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE WINDS AND THREAT OF
BLOWING DUST. BLENDED MAV/MET/LAMP WINDS ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM
LOCAL WIND PROGRAM. THIS IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
36KT TO 46KT RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS WE ARE
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA (50KTS) GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
KS/NE BORDER. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALREADY ADVERTISED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE EAST
AND SOUTHERLY PARTS OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
AM CONCERNED A BIT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER DESPITE SFC HIGH NOSING INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL CREATE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND LEOTI WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE CO/KS
BORDER. WINDS BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
NARROW SLIVER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
FEEL THAT THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
YUMA COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...UPPER
50S WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO
MID 30S EAST.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUS NOW TURNS TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH DAY THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN A TRANSITION
TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS
TO BE UNDER AN INCH AT PRESENT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TROUGH PASSAGE THU...WHILE GEM IS STILL
SLOWER/STRONGER/FURTHER NORTH. FINER DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER OVERALL TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF PRECIP AND COOLER
TEMPS. I BUMPED POPS UP (50 PERCENT NORTH) AND LOWERED HIGHS
(40-45F). BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/PRECIP
THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS TEMP
PROFILES WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SATURATION TO WET BULB TEMP WOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX OR COMPLETE SNOW CHANGEOVER THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. I TIED RAIN/SNOW MIX TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR SIMPLICITY
SAKE...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO FINE TUNE THIS AS WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON DAYTIME TEMPS AND AXIS OF PRECIP. THIS CHANGE OVER
ALSO IMPACTS SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH ALL SNOW POSSIBLY PUTTING US WITHIN
ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I-70 (3-5"). CURRENT FORECAST IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS SINCE IT IS FAVORING MORE OF A MIX/LIQUID
EVENT...JUST ANOTHER THING WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION
TO SPLIT FLOW...SHIFTING THE NORTHERN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH AND
EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT. WE SHOULD
ALSO SEE A RETURN OF SEASONAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IS ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY WHEN ECMWF
SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK
AND MOVES THIS TROUGH FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS KS. GFS IS WEAKER AND
FAVORS SUNDAY FOR PRECIP CHANCES. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
DURING THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY
HAVE MVFR/IFR CIGS IN BLOWING DUST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON BUT ITS TOO EARLY RIGHT NOW TO PINPOINT THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR IT TO IMPACT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...WEST WINDS 20 TO 25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z WITH AROUND 30KT
SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTING 40-45KTS THROUGH 20Z OR SO BEFORE VERY
SLOW DECREASING FROM 21Z TO 00Z TUESDAY. FOR TONIGHT SFC HIGH
MOVES IN WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 06Z
BECOMING NORTHEAST UNDER 5KTS AT KMCK...SOUTHEAST AROUND 6KTS AT
KGLD BY 12Z.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATE THIS MORNING BUT
ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
40 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING 15 PERCENT. RIGHT NOW AM JUST ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITE. WINDS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 40 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.
TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES (GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON) FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET. CURRENTLY HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO 16-17%. THESE LOW VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
655 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2014
Revised aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.
&&
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
Activity firing along an elevated boundary layer theta-e axis from
Perry County Missouri...along the Shawnee Foothills in Southern
Illinois to near Southern Union and McLean Counties in West Kentucky.
Periodic reports of pea (less than 1/4 inch) hail have been reported
with the isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. This boundary is the
former cold front that moved into the area late last night into
this morning.
The 3km HRRR guidance has done a pretty good job of modeling the storm
scale expansion along the boundary. Intermittent hail production will
still be a likelihood through sunset. Precipitation loading and
evaporative cooling could also generate some isolated wind gusts
in excess of 40 mph as well through late afternoon.
$$
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 416 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
Weak surface front has become difficult to locate this
afternoon...but seems to be roughly along a line from ksdf to kpah
to kpof. This is about where the surface pressure trough and
strongest dew point gradient are located. A small line of showers
and storms has developed from kmdh west across kfam at 20z. This
activity correlates with a strong 850 mb instability and thetae
gradient. The activity will likely shift east northeast across
southern IL and southwest IN through early evening.
As for the overnight hours...there is some potential for additional
activity to develop. The front will sharpen up over western KY and
southeast MO tonight...and deep southwest flow will result in
increasing precip water values. With very limited instability and
moisture...pops will be kept in the chance range. Best chance will
be along and north of Interstate 64...closer to the 850 mb front.
On Wednesday...the front will lift north across our region...passing
north of Interstate 64 late in the day. Again...highest pops will be
in northern counties...closer to the location of the front during
the peak heating hours. With no significant upper level
support...pops will still be kept in the chance category for most
areas.
Models are in good agreement that a round of heavy precip is likely
Wednesday night as a mid level impulse lifts northeast. Heaviest
qpf...on the order of an inch or so...is likely in southern IL/sw
Indiana in closer proximity to the surface front. The surface front
will be along or north of Interstate 70...but strong low level
moisture transport should be sufficient for heavy rainers. Some hail
is possible in the stronger updrafts...but overall severe weather
potential is limited by lack of surface based instability.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
The transition from short term to long term part of the forecast will
be subtle as the WFO PAH forecast area remains boldly in the warm
sector on Thursday.
Recent trends suggest that there may be some stabilization of the
boundary layer as well as a brief capping aloft during the morning
and early afternoon hours. There may some insolation at mid-
morning enough to warm parcels through the low level cap to support
isolated strong convection between 10 am and 1 pm Thursday afternoon.
However...the NAM-WRF numerical model family indicates that an
organized convective line (squall line?) will develop from the cold
front toward southern sections of the WFO CWA. Given the low-level
turning...cannot rule out some decent updrafts during the
afternoon with pre-frontal convective line. This may produce
isolated to scattered severe storms. The better lift and overall
instability will be realized with the approaching cold front
itself, yielding a better potential for hail...wind gusts and
isolated tornado potential, as the upper trough becomes more
negatively titled. The majority of the severe threat should be
out of the WFO PAH CWA before daybreak on Friday.
Given the congestion of intermittent convective elements
(thunderstorm clusters) throughout the day, it will be difficult
to pin down any defined time period were at least isolated severe
storms and areal flooding will not be a concern Thursday afternoon
and night.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2014
With a weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary in the vicinity, VFR
ceilings will overspread the forecast terminals through the evening.
Late tonight, ceilings may be further reduced to MVFR at KCGI and
KPAH with some haze possible as more humid air arrives. The MVFR
ceilings should translate eastward to KEVV and KOWB by mid morning
Wednesday. The front will begin to shift back to the north as a warm
front by Wednesday afternoon. Ceilings should lift back to VFR as a
result. Scattered showers may develop by mid to late Wednesday
afternoon as upper level energy approaches. Light winds of an
easterly component tonight will increase near 10 knots from the
south on Wednesday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...Smith
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...RJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
108 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE TODAY...BEFORE FINALLY PULLING
AWAY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...SPREADING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1PM UPDATE...
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS FINALLY SHIFTED OFFSHORE. ANOTHER AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS BLOSSOMING JUST OFF THE COAST AND MOVING INTO
EASTERN MAINE. THIS MAY AFFECT THE MIDCOAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA.
10AM UPDATE...
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED A BIT AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD. HAVE REMOVED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR AREAS
BEHIND THE BAND. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE REMAINING ADVISORY AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET THEN TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS AROUND NOON.
830AM UPDATE...
NARROW BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET / FREEZING RAIN / RAIN CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOME SNOW WAS NOTED ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE BAND AT
WISCASSET AND AUGUSTA. TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT NOTED ON THE GYX
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED SLEET SOUNDING WITH
A LARGE INVERSION TO +6 C AT AROUND 800 MB WITH A STEEP COOLING TO
AROUND -6 C AT 900 MB. AS THE DAY GOES ON... EXPECT THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT TO SHIFT EAST... SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SLEET
AND SNOW WITH LESS FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH.
7AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE THE GRIDS TO HIT THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DRIVING
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AND MORE TREACHEROUS. ICE ACCRETION WILL
BE A QUARTER TO NEARLY A HALF INCH IN THIS REGION.
HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND FLOOD
WATCHES IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UP TO A QUICK INCH OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS YESTERDAY. LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THIS PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERY WELL. MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL/MIX WILL BE DISSIPATING AROUND 16Z.
AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN LIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THIS PACKAGE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STRONG...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STUBBORN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING TO FINALLY TAKE PLACE. SUNSHINE
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE BACK TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES EMERGE AFTER THURSDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONE LAST ROUND OF LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS AND
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...
WED...SCT MVFR IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY GALES EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW TO PULL AWAY.
LONG TERM...
THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1008 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE TODAY...BEFORE FINALLY PULLING
AWAY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...SPREADING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
10AM UPDATE...
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED A BIT AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD. HAVE REMOVED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR AREAS
BEHIND THE BAND. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE REMAINING ADVISORY AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET THEN TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS AROUND NOON.
830AM UPDATE...
NARROW BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET / FREEZING RAIN / RAIN CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOME SNOW WAS NOTED ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE BAND AT
WISCASSET AND AUGUSTA. TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT NOTED ON THE GYX
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED SLEET SOUNDING WITH
A LARGE INVERSION TO +6 C AT AROUND 800 MB WITH A STEEP COOLING TO
AROUND -6 C AT 900 MB. AS THE DAY GOES ON... EXPECT THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT TO SHIFT EAST... SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SLEET
AND SNOW WITH LESS FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH.
7AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE THE GRIDS TO HIT THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DRIVING
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AND MORE TREACHEROUS. ICE ACCRETION WILL
BE A QUARTER TO NEARLY A HALF INCH IN THIS REGION.
HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND FLOOD
WATCHES IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UP TO A QUICK INCH OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS YESTERDAY. LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THIS PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERY WELL. MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL/MIX WILL BE DISSIPATING AROUND 16Z.
AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN LIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THIS PACKAGE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STRONG...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STUBBORN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING TO FINALLY TAKE PLACE. SUNSHINE
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE BACK TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES EMERGE AFTER THURSDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONE LAST ROUND OF LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS AND
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...
WED...SCT MVFR IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY GALES EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW TO PULL AWAY.
LONG TERM...
THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ018-019-
022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ008>010-
013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
834 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE TODAY...BEFORE FINALLY PULLING
AWAY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...SPREADING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
830AM UPDATE...
NARROW BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET / FREEZING RAIN / RAIN CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOME SNOW WAS NOTED ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE BAND AT
WISCASSET AND AUGUSTA. TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT NOTED ON THE GYX
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED SLEET SOUNDING WITH
A LARGE INVERSION TO +6 C AT AROUND 800 MB WITH A STEEP COOLING TO
AROUND -6 C AT 900 MB. AS THE DAY GOES ON... EXPECT THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT TO SHIFT EAST... SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SLEET
AND SNOW WITH LESS FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH.
7AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE THE GRIDS TO HIT THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DRIVING
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AND MORE TREACHEROUS. ICE ACCRETION WILL
BE A QUARTER TO NEARLY A HALF INCH IN THIS REGION.
HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND FLOOD
WATCHES IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UP TO A QUICK INCH OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS YESTERDAY. LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THIS PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERY WELL. MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL/MIX WILL BE DISSIPATING AROUND 16Z.
AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN LIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THIS PACKAGE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STRONG...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
STUBBORN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING TO FINALLY TAKE PLACE. SUNSHINE
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE BACK TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES EMERGE AFTER THURSDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONE LAST ROUND OF LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS AND
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...
WED...SCT MVFR IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY GALES EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW TO PULL AWAY.
LONG TERM...
THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ018>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ012-
018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ006-008>010-
013-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ004-006-
008>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
657 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE TODAY...BEFORE FINALLY PULLING
AWAY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...SPREADING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE THE GRIDS TO HIT THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DRIVING
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AND MORE TRECHOROUS. ICE ACCRETION WILL
BE A QUARTER TO NEARLY A HALF INCH IN THIS REGION.
HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND FLOOD
WATCHES IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP HAS COME TO AN END.
PREV DISC...
BANDS OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UP TO A QUICK INCH OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS YESTERDAY. LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THIS PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERY WELL. MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL/MIX WILL BE DISSIPATING AROUND 16Z.
AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN LIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THIS PACKAGE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STRONG...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STUBBORN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING TO FINALLY TAKE PLACE. SUNSHINE
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE BACK TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES EMERGE AFTER THURSDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONE LAST ROUND OF LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS AND
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...
WED...SCT MVFR IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LCL IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY GALES EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW TO PULL AWAY.
LONG TERM...
THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ018>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ012-
018>022.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ006-008>010-
013-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ004-006-
008>010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
319 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE TODAY...BEFORE FINALLY PULLING
AWAY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...SPREADING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BANDS OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR UP TO A QUICK INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF
THE HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS YESTERDAY.
LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THIS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERY WELL. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL/MIX WILL BE
DISSIPATING AROUND 16Z.
AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN LIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THIS PACKAGE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STRONG...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STUBBORN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING TO FINALLY TAKE PLACE. SUNSHINE
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE BACK TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES EMERGE AFTER THURSDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONE LAST ROUND OF LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS AND
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...
WED...SCT MVFR IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LCL IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY GALES EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW TO PULL AWAY.
LONG TERM...
THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS MELT/RUNOFF SHOULD CONTINUE
WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE SUNCOOK RIVER. ICE IN THE GAGE CONTINUES TO
EFFECT THE WEST CLAREMONT GAGE ON THE SUGAR RIVER. THANKS TO THE
LOCAL PD FOR LOOKING INTO THIS ISSUE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES AND WAVES WILL REMAIN MODESTLY HIGH TODAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME BEACH EROSION...HOWEVER THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS EVENT
TO SETTLE DOWN WITH TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT. HENCE...NO ADVISORIES
OR STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ012>014-
018>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ012>014-019>022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ003>010-013-
014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NHZ002>005-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
733 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
LATEST 19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING NE INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND 850 MB FGEN ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW FROM ERN UPPER MI INTO NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW UPR MI ALONG
OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND ASSOC
INSTABILITY/MIXING HAS CAUSED SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN OVER 35
MPH IN THE PAST HR.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW
QUICKLY LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS Q-VECT DIV AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT FM THE SW WITH APPROACH OF SFC
RDG AXIS. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY LIFTING NE
AND/OR DIMINISHING OVER THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO
RANGE FM AROUND 10F OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FM THE NW WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MIXING TO NEAR 875 MB OFF THE NAM
SNDGS WOULD YIELD HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AND EAST TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F SW AND SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING CHANCE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE ALONG WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD. DURING THIS TIME...A WEAKENED
SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE ROCKIES MAKING WAY FOR LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH
STRONGER SURFACE LOW FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. OVERALL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET OTHER THAN A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA BY 06Z FRIDAY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING MSLP ALONG
WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EC/GFS/GEM. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT
INITIALLY LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE U.P. WHICH
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA PUSHING INTO THE CWA. THIS CAN EASILY BE
SEEN BY PLOTTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RH ALONG WITH PRESSURE ON THE
300K ISOSURFACE. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS SHOWN BY THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE 300K ISOSURFACE TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL AHEAD OF
THE LOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...HOWEVER...IN AN AREA STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY
MENOMINEE TO ESCANABA OVER TO NEWBERRY WILL SEE THE SNOW MIX WITH OR
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARMER AIR PUSHES IN JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER PENINSULA BY 12Z FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO BE
STAGGERED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO BE NEAR
SOUTHERN WI AROUND THIS TIME.
THE STRONGEST SYSTEM FORCING WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. ALONG WITH STRONGER FGEN FORCING AT 700MB AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY ALLOWING HEAVY WET SNOW TO DEVELOP...WHILE THE EASTERN U.P.
WILL STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING DUE TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...THANKS TO CONTINUED WAA...HELPING TO KEEP A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THOSE AREAS. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
STEEP THROUGH THE DGZ WITH EPV VALUES AROUND 0 OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW...POSSIBLY LEADING TO THUNDER...BUT DEFINITELY HELPING WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. AGAIN THESE ARE FINER DETAILS WHICH WILL HAVE
TO BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BETWEEN 18Z
FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
LOW BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY STACKED ALLOWING THE LOW TO OCCLUDE. AT
THE SAME TIME WARM AIR ASCENDS AND WRAPS AROUND THE LOW ALLOWING FOR
A TROWAL TYPE SETUP OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE U.P. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS AS IF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WOULD BE UNDER
THE TROWAL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 850MB LOW...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
SNOWFALL RATES...WHILE THE EASTERN U.P. MAY END UP SEEING A BIT OF A
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT TRIES
TO SLIP INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SO THE FINAL LOCATIONS OF
THESE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE MOST MODELS HAVE A
SIMILAR SNOW TRACK...THEY EACH VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE DETAILS WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS EVENT HIGHLIGHTING THE HEAVY
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P. WHILE ALSO
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO SATURDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. INITIALLY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE U.P. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...HOWEVER...AS THE
LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND BRINGING AND END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE LOW AS MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED...A CONSENSUS
APPROACH IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS AT THIS TIME AND
JUST BE AWARE THAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
AS LOW PRES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES MOVING NE...EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT. AT KIWD...MVFR
CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT IF NOT SOONER. AT KCMX...LIFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AROUND
02Z...THEN MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. AT KSAW...EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT DOWNSLOPE WNW WINDS MAY
LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS WED AS HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR MASS DOMINATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
THE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT NE OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES OR GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN DIMINISH BLO GALES LATER
TONIGHT AS LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES
BUILDIN OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WED
INTO THU. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR OK THURSDAY MORNING WILL PUSH
NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF LAKE HURON AND INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NE-N GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245-250-264>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
405 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A pretty potent surface low resides just north of the forecast area
in southern Minnesota, however the pressure gradient associated with
that low remains strong over the forecast area, producing strong
southwest winds. Good mixing through the day and a dry southwesterly
component has caused RH values to drop to around 30 percent, with
some very localized areas dropping to the lower 20 percent range,
especially in far western Missouri. Surface observations indicate
that a cold front currently sits across far NW Missouri. This cold
front will continue to push S/SE through the area over the next
several hours, causing winds to switch from the southwest to the
west/northwest overnight. While the initial winds behind the front
will be somewhat gusty, expect a general decline in winds through
the overnight hours. HRRR has been somewhat consistent in producing
some signals for isolated to scattered convection along the cold
front in the 23z to 03z time frame across C Missouri, but given the
weak signal and forecast soundings showing a struggle to get
saturation, will only go out with low end chance PoPs for C Missouri
in the evening time frame. Should a thunderstorm get going along the
front the dry low levels of the atmosphere bring about a sort of
inverted-V sounding. While the overall potential is very low, there
could be an outside chance at a damaging wind gust or two if any
storm gets healthy along the front. Once the cold front clears the
area expect the chances for precipitation to trend toward no chance.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
On Tuesday evening, a deepening trough across the western CONUS and
southerly low-level flow off the Gulf will allow for wetter weather
through the remainder of the work week. A slow-moving warm front
will lift into the area and stall somewhere around the vicinity of
I-70, resulting in several rounds of thunderstorms, some possibly
strong to severe, for Tuesday night through Thursday.
A few isolated thunderstorms should begin to develop on Tuesday
evening as the low-level jet begins to increase and the frontal
boundary begins to edge into the region. The most widespread
convection is expected after 06z, and should be elevated in nature.
Hail is possible with any robust elevated storms that develop, but
widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
The main challenge for severe potential Wednesday will be the
presence and influence of morning convection across the region.
Without any real feature to sweep out nighttime convection, rain
showers and cloud cover may prevent strong instability from
developing. Shear profiles, particularly along the warm front, will
be very supportive of severe weather, and any storms that develop
will have the potential to be severe. Right now the area near the
warm front looks like it could remain very capped, but any clearing
will likely result in explosive storm development, especially along
and south of I-70.
Model differences increase on Thursday night into Friday with the
position of the surface low and associated front, which will
strongly impact severe weather chances. For now, have trended the
higher PoPs towards the southeastern corner of the CWA, but will
need to adjust as models come better into focus. Morning convection
could again impact instability, but with the strong front sweeping
through, storms are likely along and ahead of the boundary during
the afternoon and early evening hours.
Slightly cooler conditions and quieter weather is expected for the
weekend and into early next week. A few showers are possible for
Sunday night into Monday, but significant precipitation is not
expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
Gusty southwest winds will continue through the rest of the day time
hours. A cold front with a wind shift to the west then northwest will
move through later this evening. Best potential for evening
thunderstorms will be east of the terminals tonight, so expect no
impact from late afternoon/evening convection.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
Strong southwesterly winds continue across the entire area, however
portions of NW Missouri may see a gradual change from southwesterly
winds to more of a westerly then northwesterly direction this
evening. This wind shift will work its way southeastward through the
evening hours. A few scattered showers may pop up along the cold
front later this evening, but expect showery activity to be rather
sparse and localize. If convective activity affects areas with active
fires they could produce some erratic wind behavior. Some lightning
may occur with these showers, so fire personnel will need to be aware
of possible lightning with any storm that forms this evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
011>013-020-021-028-029-037.
WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
020>022-028>030-037-043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton
FIRE WEATHER...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
407 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEEKEND...IS NOW PULLING
OUT TO SEA. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD...FOLLOWED BY SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. OUR
NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS ACROSS THE FAR SERN FA. RETURNS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO THE POINT THAT WE WERE ABLE TO LOWER ALL REMAINING
FLAGS FOR THIS EVENT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR FROM 850-700MB THAT I THINK WE
WILL CLEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN NORTHWEST FLOW NORMALLY ALLOWS IN
EARLY SPRING. WILL FORECAST CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST FROM
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
COOL AIRMASS ON BACKSIDE OF CYCLONE (925MB TEMPS -1C TO 2C) WILL
LIMIT AFTERNOON MAXES TO THE MID 40S ACROSS NY, AND TO NEAR 50
OVER OUR SRN COUNTIES.
220 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED A FEW MORE COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA.
WILL HOLD THE NEXT UPDATE PACKAGE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. HOPEFULLY
BY THEN WE CAN LOWER ALL FLAGS.
1210 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED ONEIDA, MADISON AND BRADFORD COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY
AREA.
SNOW REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER THE
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RETURNS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THE
LATEST HRRR AND WRFARW REFLECTIVITY PROGS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HOWEVER THE HRRR MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO FAST
AND AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPERING THE PRECIP OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE GOOD NEWS SO FAR IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW
"UP" WX TYPES HAVE SHOWN UP JUST AFTER THE PRECIP EXITED A
STATION, BUT QUICKLY ENDED. SO I WILL HUG THE -FZDZ PTYPE TO THE
15-30 POP AREA BEHIND THE BANDS AND QUICKLY MOVE IT THROUGH.
UPDATED AS OF 940 PM...
UPGRADED BROOME...SUSQUEHANNA...WYOMING AND NORTHERN WAYNE CO/S TO
WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOWFALL SPOTTER REPORTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES WILL EXCEED 10 INCHES. MANY REPORTS
RECEIVED BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA SO WITH
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS...BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 7
INCHES IN THESE COUNTIES. FARTHER N LESS SNOW WAS REPORTED IN
CHENANGO CO AND DELWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES...TO THE TUNE OF 2-5
INCHES. I CAN SEE A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN THESE PLACES SO WILL
STICK WITH ADVY THERE. FARTHER S OF THE WARNING AREA...SNOW IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT CONCENTRATING INTO BANDS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL TAPER DOWN
AND WEAKEN...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW TO THE EAST TWD THE POCONOS AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS. I THINK WE WILL SEE SNOW AMNTS OF 2-5 INCHES IN THE
POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SO WILL
CONT ADVY/S IN THE REST OF NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO.
PREVIOUS DSCN IS BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE NJ COAST. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS SET
UP TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ABT UCA TO NORWICH TO
THE CITY OF BINGHAMTON TO AVP. THERE WAS A SECONDARY BAND OF
HEAVIER MIXED PRECIP...FROM DELAWARE CO INTO THE POCONOS. WITH
MORE SHOWERLY LOOKING PRECIP TO THE S AND E. THIS AREA WAS MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND JUST PLAIN RAIN.
THE RAP SHOWS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WAS PRESENTLY AT
THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL WEAKEN. I BELIEVE ANOTHER
BAND WILL FORM FARTHER TO THE S AND E AND AFFECT THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS INTO PIKE CO/SRN WAYNE BTWN 1 AND 4Z. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AT THIS TIME AND THUS
BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS STORM IN OUR AREA WILL BE
OVER. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMNTS DOWN A TOUCH FOR SULLIVAN AND
PIKE CO/S.
FARTHER N AND W...HAVE HAD TO CHASE SNOW AMNTS AS BANDING WAS
LEADING TO RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME SOME OF
THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS WERE RELATED TO THE MELTING LEVEL AND
JUST SLEET AND WET SNOW WAS FALLING WITH LESS ACCUMULATION. SO WE
HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON SPOTTER REPORTS. THANKS TO ALL SPOTTERS WHO
HAVE SENT REPORTS IN...THEY HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL.
WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVY WHERE IT IS IN EFFECT FOR NOW. LIKELY
WILL DROP CORTLAND AND TIOGA CO/S BY 9 PM OR SO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DEFORMATION BAND HAS HALTED ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS. I WILL WAIT
AND SEE ON THIS.
REST OF FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
JUST CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. A
STRENGTHENING CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND PULL WARM AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NY/PA. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY, LIKELY RESULTING IN THE WARMEST AIR WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SINCE LATE AUTUMN.
A SHORT WAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY AND RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO
LOWER OR MIDDLE 50S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF RUNS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WITH SHIELD OF MOISTURE EXTENDING WELL
EAST INTO OUR REGION. WHILE I DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS WPC JUST
YET...I DID INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THE FRI-FRI
NIGHT PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH WE STAY PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE, MOVES
THROUGH. WE ARE TALKING ALMOST AN ENTIRELY RAIN EVENT BUT SOME
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN FOR SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY AS OUR REGION
GETS INTO A DRY SLOT. BEYOND SATURDAY WE COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. SHARP OUTER RIM OF SNOW WILL STILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT IFR
SNOW AT KAVP 06Z-08Z...OTHERWISE ONLY DEALING WITH MVFR CIGS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. AIR MASS IS NOT COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
WIND DIRECTION HAS A LOT OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT...THUS EXPECTING
SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING 12Z-16Z INSTEAD OF
THE USUAL LONGER PERSISTING CIGS THAT OFTEN OCCUR BEHIND A SYSTEM.
BEHIND THE EXITING RIM OF SNOW...MODELS/SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY TOO
MOIST COMPARED TO OBSERVED CIGS...AND THUS I AM NOT EXPECTING IFR
CIG AT KBGM AT THIS POINT AS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. NNW WINDS
10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MUCH OF TODAY...THEN
DECOUPLING TO WELL UNDER 10 KTS FROM NE OR VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
LATE MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT...VFR.
WED/THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WED-THU...ALL TERMINALS THU NGT-FRI.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
400 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEEKEND...IS NOW PULLING
OUT TO SEA. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD...FOLLOWED BY SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. OUR
NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS ACROSS THE FAR SERN FA. RETURNS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO THE POINT THAT WE WERE ABLE TO LOWER ALL REMAINING
FLAGS FOR THIS EVENT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR FROM 850-700MB THAT I THINK WE
WILL CLEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN NORTHWEST FLOW NORMALLY ALLOWS.
WILL FORECAST CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
COOL AIRMASS ON BACKSIDE OF CYCLONE (925MB TEMPS -1C TO 2C) WILL
LIMIT AFTERNOON MAXES TO THE MID 40S ACROSS NY, AND NEAR 50 OUR
SRN COUNTIES.
220 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED A FEW MORE COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA.
WILL HOLD THE NEXT UPDATE PACKAGE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. HOPEFULLY
BY THEN WE CAN LOWER ALL FLAGS.
1210 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED ONEIDA, MADISON AND BRADFORD COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY
AREA.
SNOW REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER THE
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RETURNS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THE
LATEST HRRR AND WRFARW REFLECTIVITY PROGS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HOWEVER THE HRRR MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO FAST
AND AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPERING THE PRECIP OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE GOOD NEWS SO FAR IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW
"UP" WX TYPES HAVE SHOWN UP JUST AFTER THE PRECIP EXITED A
STATION, BUT QUICKLY ENDED. SO I WILL HUG THE -FZDZ PTYPE TO THE
15-30 POP AREA BEHIND THE BANDS AND QUICKLY MOVE IT THROUGH.
UPDATED AS OF 940 PM...
UPGRADED BROOME...SUSQUEHANNA...WYOMING AND NORTHERN WAYNE CO/S TO
WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOWFALL SPOTTER REPORTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES WILL EXCEED 10 INCHES. MANY REPORTS
RECEIVED BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA SO WITH
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS...BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 7
INCHES IN THESE COUNTIES. FARTHER N LESS SNOW WAS REPORTED IN
CHENANGO CO AND DELWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES...TO THE TUNE OF 2-5
INCHES. I CAN SEE A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN THESE PLACES SO WILL
STICK WITH ADVY THERE. FARTHER S OF THE WARNING AREA...SNOW IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT CONCENTRATING INTO BANDS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL TAPER DOWN
AND WEAKEN...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW TO THE EAST TWD THE POCONOS AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS. I THINK WE WILL SEE SNOW AMNTS OF 2-5 INCHES IN THE
POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SO WILL
CONT ADVY/S IN THE REST OF NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO.
PREVIOUS DSCN IS BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE NJ COAST. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS SET
UP TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ABT UCA TO NORWICH TO
THE CITY OF BINGHAMTON TO AVP. THERE WAS A SECONDARY BAND OF
HEAVIER MIXED PRECIP...FROM DELAWARE CO INTO THE POCONOS. WITH
MORE SHOWERLY LOOKING PRECIP TO THE S AND E. THIS AREA WAS MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND JUST PLAIN RAIN.
THE RAP SHOWS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WAS PRESENTLY AT
THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL WEAKEN. I BELIEVE ANOTHER
BAND WILL FORM FARTHER TO THE S AND E AND AFFECT THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS INTO PIKE CO/SRN WAYNE BTWN 1 AND 4Z. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AT THIS TIME AND THUS
BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS STORM IN OUR AREA WILL BE
OVER. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMNTS DOWN A TOUCH FOR SULLIVAN AND
PIKE CO/S.
FARTHER N AND W...HAVE HAD TO CHASE SNOW AMNTS AS BANDING WAS
LEADING TO RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME SOME OF
THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS WERE RELATED TO THE MELTING LEVEL AND
JUST SLEET AND WET SNOW WAS FALLING WITH LESS ACCUMULATION. SO WE
HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON SPOTTER REPORTS. THANKS TO ALL SPOTTERS WHO
HAVE SENT REPORTS IN...THEY HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL.
WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVY WHERE IT IS IN EFFECT FOR NOW. LIKELY
WILL DROP CORTLAND AND TIOGA CO/S BY 9 PM OR SO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DEFORMATION BAND HAS HALTED ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS. I WILL WAIT
AND SEE ON THIS.
REST OF FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
JUST CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM UPDATE... HIPRES WL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AS COASTAL STORM
RIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TAKING MOISTURE WITH IT. ONLY LINGERING
AFFECT WL BE CLOUD CVR VRY EARLY IN THE MRNG BFR DRY AIR MVS IN FM
THE NW. SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY AND TEMPS WL HANDILY RISE INTO THE
40S/NR 50 UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN TOMORROW.
500MB HEIGHTS FOR TUESDAY WILL CLIMB TO NR 567DM WITH S/WV RIDGE
BUILDING DIRECTLY OVRHD. GIVEN STRONG MARCH SUN HV GONE ABV
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S/LWR 60S IN THE VLYS. NO
WX IS EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT S/WV APPCHS TUE NGT, SPREADING SHOWERS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY ACRS NRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF RUNS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WITH SHIELD OF MOISTURE EXTENDING WELL
EAST INTO OUR REGION. WHILE I DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS WPC JUST
YET...I DID INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THE FRI-FRI
NIGHT PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH WE STAY PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE, MOVES
THROUGH. WE ARE TALKING ALMOST AN ENTIRELY RAIN EVENT BUT SOME
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN FOR SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY AS OUR REGION
GETS INTO A DRY SLOT. BEYOND SATURDAY WE COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. SHARP OUTER RIM OF SNOW WILL STILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT IFR
SNOW AT KAVP 06Z-08Z...OTHERWISE ONLY DEALING WITH MVFR CIGS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. AIR MASS IS NOT COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
WIND DIRECTION HAS A LOT OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT...THUS EXPECTING
SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING 12Z-16Z INSTEAD OF
THE USUAL LONGER PERSISTING CIGS THAT OFTEN OCCUR BEHIND A SYSTEM.
BEHIND THE EXITING RIM OF SNOW...MODELS/SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY TOO
MOIST COMPARED TO OBSERVED CIGS...AND THUS I AM NOT EXPECTING IFR
CIG AT KBGM AT THIS POINT AS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. NNW WINDS
10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MUCH OF TODAY...THEN
DECOUPLING TO WELL UNDER 10 KTS FROM NE OR VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
LATE MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT...VFR.
WED/THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WED-THU...ALL TERMINALS THU NGT-FRI.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
351 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEEKEND...IS NOW PULLING
AWAY OUT TO SEA. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD...FOLLOWED BY SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.
OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
220 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED A FEW MORE COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA.
WILL HOLD THE NEXT UPDATE PACKAGE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. HOPEFULLY
BY THEN WE CAN LOWER ALL FLAGS.
1210 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED ONEIDA, MADISON AND BRADFORD COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY
AREA.
SNOW REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER THE
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RETURNS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THE
LATEST HRRR AND WRFARW REFLECTIVITY PROGS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HOWEVER THE HRRR MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO FAST
AND AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPERING THE PRECIP OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE GOOD NEWS SO FAR IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW
"UP" WX TYPES HAVE SHOWN UP JUST AFTER THE PRECIP EXITED A
STATION, BUT QUICKLY ENDED. SO I WILL HUG THE -FZDZ PTYPE TO THE
15-30 POP AREA BEHIND THE BANDS AND QUICKLY MOVE IT THROUGH.
UPDATED AS OF 940 PM...
UPGRADED BROOME...SUSQUEHANNA...WYOMING AND NORTHERN WAYNE CO/S TO
WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOWFALL SPOTTER REPORTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES WILL EXCEED 10 INCHES. MANY REPORTS
RECEIVED BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA SO WITH
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS...BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 7
INCHES IN THESE COUNTIES. FARTHER N LESS SNOW WAS REPORTED IN
CHENANGO CO AND DELWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES...TO THE TUNE OF 2-5
INCHES. I CAN SEE A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN THESE PLACES SO WILL
STICK WITH ADVY THERE. FARTHER S OF THE WARNING AREA...SNOW IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT CONCENTRATING INTO BANDS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL TAPER DOWN
AND WEAKEN...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW TO THE EAST TWD THE POCONOS AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS. I THINK WE WILL SEE SNOW AMNTS OF 2-5 INCHES IN THE
POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SO WILL
CONT ADVY/S IN THE REST OF NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO.
PREVIOUS DSCN IS BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE NJ COAST. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS SET
UP TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ABT UCA TO NORWICH TO
THE CITY OF BINGHAMTON TO AVP. THERE WAS A SECONDARY BAND OF
HEAVIER MIXED PRECIP...FROM DELAWARE CO INTO THE POCONOS. WITH
MORE SHOWERLY LOOKING PRECIP TO THE S AND E. THIS AREA WAS MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND JUST PLAIN RAIN.
THE RAP SHOWS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WAS PRESENTLY AT
THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL WEAKEN. I BELIEVE ANOTHER
BAND WILL FORM FARTHER TO THE S AND E AND AFFECT THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS INTO PIKE CO/SRN WAYNE BTWN 1 AND 4Z. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AT THIS TIME AND THUS
BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS STORM IN OUR AREA WILL BE
OVER. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMNTS DOWN A TOUCH FOR SULLIVAN AND
PIKE CO/S.
FARTHER N AND W...HAVE HAD TO CHASE SNOW AMNTS AS BANDING WAS
LEADING TO RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME SOME OF
THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS WERE RELATED TO THE MELTING LEVEL AND
JUST SLEET AND WET SNOW WAS FALLING WITH LESS ACCUMULATION. SO WE
HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON SPOTTER REPORTS. THANKS TO ALL SPOTTERS WHO
HAVE SENT REPORTS IN...THEY HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL.
WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVY WHERE IT IS IN EFFECT FOR NOW. LIKELY
WILL DROP CORTLAND AND TIOGA CO/S BY 9 PM OR SO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DEFORMATION BAND HAS HALTED ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS. I WILL WAIT
AND SEE ON THIS.
REST OF FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
JUST CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AS COASTAL STORM RIDES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TAKING MOISTURE WITH IT. ONLY LINGERING AFFECT WL BE
CLOUD CVR VRY EARLY IN THE MRNG BFR DRY AIR MVS IN FM THE NW.
SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY AND TEMPS WL HANDILY RISE INTO THE 40S/NR 50
UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN TOMORROW.
500MB HEIGHTS FOR TUESDAY WILL CLIMB TO NR 567DM WITH S/WV RIDGE
BUILDING DIRECTLY OVRHD. GIVEN STRONG MARCH SUN HV GONE ABV
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S/LWR 60S IN THE VLYS. NO
WX IS EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT S/WV APPCHS TUE NGT, SPREADING SHOWERS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY ACRS NRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF RUNS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WITH SHIELD OF MOISTURE EXTENDING WELL
EAST INTO OUR REGION. WHILE I DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS WPC JUST
YET...I DID INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THE FRI-FRI
NIGHT PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH WE STAY PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE, MOVES
THROUGH. WE ARE TALKING ALMOST AN ENTIRELY RAIN EVENT BUT SOME
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN FOR SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY AS OUR REGION
GETS INTO A DRY SLOT. BEYOND SATURDAY WE COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. SHARP OUTER RIM OF SNOW WILL STILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT IFR
SNOW AT KAVP 06Z-08Z...OTHERWISE ONLY DEALING WITH MVFR CIGS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. AIR MASS IS NOT COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
WIND DIRECTION HAS A LOT OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT...THUS EXPECTING
SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING 12Z-16Z INSTEAD OF
THE USUAL LONGER PERSISTING CIGS THAT OFTEN OCCUR BEHIND A SYSTEM.
BEHIND THE EXITING RIM OF SNOW...MODELS/SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY TOO
MOIST COMPARED TO OBSERVED CIGS...AND THUS I AM NOT EXPECTING IFR
CIG AT KBGM AT THIS POINT AS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. NNW WINDS
10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MUCH OF TODAY...THEN
DECOUPLING TO WELL UNDER 10 KTS FROM NE OR VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
LATE MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT...VFR.
WED/THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WED-THU...ALL TERMINALS THU NGT-FRI.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-
047-048-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ039-
040-043.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
221 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM THAT WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ALL THE SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM INTERSTATE 81
AND POINTS EAST. AS THIS WINTER STORM EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
COAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
MILDER MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 40S FOR MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY NEAR 60 FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
220 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED A FEW MORE COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA.
WILL HOLD THE NEXT UPDATE PACKAGE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. HOPEFULLY
BY THEN WE CAN LOWER ALL FLAGS.
1210 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED ONEIDA, MADISON AND BRADFORD COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY
AREA.
SNOW REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER THE
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RETURNS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THE
LATEST HRRR AND WRFARW REFLECTIVITY PROGS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HOWEVER THE HRRR MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO FAST
AND AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPERING THE PRECIP OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE GOOD NEWS SO FAR IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW
"UP" WX TYPES HAVE SHOWN UP JUST AFTER THE PRECIP EXITED A
STATION, BUT QUICKLY ENDED. SO I WILL HUG THE -FZDZ PTYPE TO THE
15-30 POP AREA BEHIND THE BANDS AND QUICKLY MOVE IT THROUGH.
UPDATED AS OF 940 PM...
UPGRADED BROOME...SUSQUEHANNA...WYOMING AND NORTHERN WAYNE CO/S TO
WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOWFALL SPOTTER REPORTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES WILL EXCEED 10 INCHES. MANY REPORTS
RECEIVED BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA SO WITH
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS...BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 7
INCHES IN THESE COUNTIES. FARTHER N LESS SNOW WAS REPORTED IN
CHENANGO CO AND DELWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES...TO THE TUNE OF 2-5
INCHES. I CAN SEE A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN THESE PLACES SO WILL
STICK WITH ADVY THERE. FARTHER S OF THE WARNING AREA...SNOW IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT CONCENTRATING INTO BANDS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL TAPER DOWN
AND WEAKEN...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW TO THE EAST TWD THE POCONOS AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS. I THINK WE WILL SEE SNOW AMNTS OF 2-5 INCHES IN THE
POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SO WILL
CONT ADVY/S IN THE REST OF NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO.
PREVIOUS DSCN IS BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE NJ COAST. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS SET
UP TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ABT UCA TO NORWICH TO
THE CITY OF BINGHAMTON TO AVP. THERE WAS A SECONDARY BAND OF
HEAVIER MIXED PRECIP...FROM DELAWARE CO INTO THE POCONOS. WITH
MORE SHOWERLY LOOKING PRECIP TO THE S AND E. THIS AREA WAS MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND JUST PLAIN RAIN.
THE RAP SHOWS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WAS PRESENTLY AT
THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL WEAKEN. I BELIEVE ANOTHER
BAND WILL FORM FARTHER TO THE S AND E AND AFFECT THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS INTO PIKE CO/SRN WAYNE BTWN 1 AND 4Z. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AT THIS TIME AND THUS
BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS STORM IN OUR AREA WILL BE
OVER. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMNTS DOWN A TOUCH FOR SULLIVAN AND
PIKE CO/S.
FARTHER N AND W...HAVE HAD TO CHASE SNOW AMNTS AS BANDING WAS
LEADING TO RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME SOME OF
THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS WERE RELATED TO THE MELTING LEVEL AND
JUST SLEET AND WET SNOW WAS FALLING WITH LESS ACCUMULATION. SO WE
HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON SPOTTER REPORTS. THANKS TO ALL SPOTTERS WHO
HAVE SENT REPORTS IN...THEY HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL.
WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVY WHERE IT IS IN EFFECT FOR NOW. LIKELY
WILL DROP CORTLAND AND TIOGA CO/S BY 9 PM OR SO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DEFORMATION BAND HAS HALTED ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS. I WILL WAIT
AND SEE ON THIS.
REST OF FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
JUST CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AS COASTAL STORM RIDES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TAKING MOISTURE WITH IT. ONLY LINGERING AFFECT WL BE
CLOUD CVR VRY EARLY IN THE MRNG BFR DRY AIR MVS IN FM THE NW.
SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY AND TEMPS WL HANDILY RISE INTO THE 40S/NR 50
UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN TOMORROW.
500MB HEIGHTS FOR TUESDAY WILL CLIMB TO NR 567DM WITH S/WV RIDGE
BUILDING DIRECTLY OVRHD. GIVEN STRONG MARCH SUN HV GONE ABV
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S/LWR 60S IN THE VLYS. NO
WX IS EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT S/WV APPCHS TUE NGT, SPREADING SHOWERS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY ACRS NRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE..
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH WE STAY PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE, MOVES
THROUGH. WE ARE TALKING ALMOST AN ENTIRELY RAIN EVENT BUT SOME
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN FOR SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY AS OUR REGION
GETS INTO A DRY SLOT. BEYOND SATURDAY WE COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. SHARP OUTER RIM OF SNOW WILL STILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT IFR
SNOW AT KAVP 06Z-08Z...OTHERWISE ONLY DEALING WITH MVFR CIGS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. AIR MASS IS NOT COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
WIND DIRECTION HAS A LOT OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT...THUS EXPECTING
SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING 12Z-16Z INSTEAD OF
THE USUAL LONGER PERSISTING CIGS THAT OFTEN OCCUR BEHIND A SYSTEM.
BEHIND THE EXITING RIM OF SNOW...MODELS/SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY TOO
MOIST COMPARED TO OBSERVED CIGS...AND THUS I AM NOT EXPECTING IFR
CIG AT KBGM AT THIS POINT AS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. NNW WINDS
10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MUCH OF TODAY...THEN
DECOUPLING TO WELL UNDER 10 KTS FROM NE OR VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
LATE MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT...VFR.
WED/THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WED-THU...ALL TERMINALS THU NGT-FRI.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-
047-048-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ039-
040-043.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
146 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM THAT WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ALL THE SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM INTERSTATE 81
AND POINTS EAST. AS THIS WINTER STORM EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
COAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
MILDER MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 40S FOR MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY NEAR 60 FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1210 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED ONEIDA, MADISON AND BRADFORD COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY
AREA.
SNOW REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER THE
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RETURNS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THE
LATEST HRRR AND WRFARW REFLECTIVITY PROGS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HOWEVER THE HRRR MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO FAST
AND AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPERING THE PRECIP OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE GOOD NEWS SO FAR IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW
"UP" WX TYPES HAVE SHOWN UP JUST AFTER THE PRECIP EXITED A
STATION, BUT QUICKLY ENDED. SO I WILL HUG THE -FZDZ PTYPE TO THE
15-30 POP AREA BEHIND THE BANDS AND QUICKLY MOVE IT THROUGH.
UPDATED AS OF 940 PM...
UPGRADED BROOME...SUSQUEHANNA...WYOMING AND NORTHERN WAYNE CO/S TO
WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOWFALL SPOTTER REPORTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES WILL EXCEED 10 INCHES. MANY REPORTS
RECEIVED BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA SO WITH
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS...BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 7
INCHES IN THESE COUNTIES. FARTHER N LESS SNOW WAS REPORTED IN
CHENANGO CO AND DELWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES...TO THE TUNE OF 2-5
INCHES. I CAN SEE A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN THESE PLACES SO WILL
STICK WITH ADVY THERE. FARTHER S OF THE WARNING AREA...SNOW IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT CONCENTRATING INTO BANDS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL TAPER DOWN
AND WEAKEN...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW TO THE EAST TWD THE POCONOS AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS. I THINK WE WILL SEE SNOW AMNTS OF 2-5 INCHES IN THE
POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SO WILL
CONT ADVY/S IN THE REST OF NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO.
PREVIOUS DSCN IS BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE NJ COAST. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS SET
UP TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ABT UCA TO NORWICH TO
THE CITY OF BINGHAMTON TO AVP. THERE WAS A SECONDARY BAND OF
HEAVIER MIXED PRECIP...FROM DELAWARE CO INTO THE POCONOS. WITH
MORE SHOWERLY LOOKING PRECIP TO THE S AND E. THIS AREA WAS MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND JUST PLAIN RAIN.
THE RAP SHOWS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WAS PRESENTLY AT
THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL WEAKEN. I BELIEVE ANOTHER
BAND WILL FORM FARTHER TO THE S AND E AND AFFECT THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS INTO PIKE CO/SRN WAYNE BTWN 1 AND 4Z. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AT THIS TIME AND THUS
BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS STORM IN OUR AREA WILL BE
OVER. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMNTS DOWN A TOUCH FOR SULLIVAN AND
PIKE CO/S.
FARTHER N AND W...HAVE HAD TO CHASE SNOW AMNTS AS BANDING WAS
LEADING TO RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME SOME OF
THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS WERE RELATED TO THE MELTING LEVEL AND
JUST SLEET AND WET SNOW WAS FALLING WITH LESS ACCUMULATION. SO WE
HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON SPOTTER REPORTS. THANKS TO ALL SPOTTERS WHO
HAVE SENT REPORTS IN...THEY HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL.
WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVY WHERE IT IS IN EFFECT FOR NOW. LIKELY
WILL DROP CORTLAND AND TIOGA CO/S BY 9 PM OR SO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DEFORMATION BAND HAS HALTED ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS. I WILL WAIT
AND SEE ON THIS.
REST OF FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
JUST CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AS COASTAL STORM RIDES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TAKING MOISTURE WITH IT. ONLY LINGERING AFFECT WL BE
CLOUD CVR VRY EARLY IN THE MRNG BFR DRY AIR MVS IN FM THE NW.
SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY AND TEMPS WL HANDILY RISE INTO THE 40S/NR 50
UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN TOMORROW.
500MB HEIGHTS FOR TUESDAY WILL CLIMB TO NR 567DM WITH S/WV RIDGE
BUILDING DIRECTLY OVRHD. GIVEN STRONG MARCH SUN HV GONE ABV
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S/LWR 60S IN THE VLYS. NO
WX IS EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT S/WV APPCHS TUE NGT, SPREADING SHOWERS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY ACRS NRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE..
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH WE STAY PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE, MOVES
THROUGH. WE ARE TALKING ALMOST AN ENTIRELY RAIN EVENT BUT SOME
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN FOR SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY AS OUR REGION
GETS INTO A DRY SLOT. BEYOND SATURDAY WE COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. SHARP OUTER RIM OF SNOW WILL STILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT IFR
SNOW AT KAVP 06Z-08Z...OTHERWISE ONLY DEALING WITH MVFR CIGS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. AIR MASS IS NOT COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
WIND DIRECTION HAS A LOT OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT...THUS EXPECTING
SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING 12Z-16Z INSTEAD OF
THE USUAL LONGER PERSISTING CIGS THAT OFTEN OCCUR BEHIND A SYSTEM.
BEHIND THE EXITING RIM OF SNOW...MODELS/SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY TOO
MOIST COMPARED TO OBSERVED CIGS...AND THUS I AM NOT EXPECTING IFR
CIG AT KBGM AT THIS POINT AS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. NNW WINDS
10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MUCH OF TODAY...THEN
DECOUPLING TO WELL UNDER 10 KTS FROM NE OR VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
LATE MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT...VFR.
WED/THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WED-THU...ALL TERMINALS THU NGT-FRI.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-
047-048-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ039-
040-043.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ045-
046-057-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ056.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1216 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM THAT WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ALL THE SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM INTERSTATE 81
AND POINTS EAST. AS THIS WINTER STORM EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
COAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
MILDER MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 40S FOR MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY NEAR 60 FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1210 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED ONEIDA, MADISON AND BRADFORD COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY
AREA.
SNOW REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER THE
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RETURNS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THE
LATEST HRRR AND WRFARW REFLECTIVITY PROGS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HOWEVER THE HRRR MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO FAST
AND AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPERING THE PRECIP OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE GOOD NEWS SO FAR IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW
"UP" WX TYPES HAVE SHOWN UP JUST AFTER THE PRECIP EXITED A
STATION, BUT QUICKLY ENDED. SO I WILL HUG THE -FZDZ PTYPE TO THE
15-30 POP AREA BEHIND THE BANDS AND QUICKLY MOVE IT THROUGH.
UPDATED AS OF 940 PM...
UPGRADED BROOME...SUSQUEHANNA...WYOMING AND NORTHERN WAYNE CO/S TO
WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOWFALL SPOTTER REPORTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES WILL EXCEED 10 INCHES. MANY REPORTS
RECEIVED BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA SO WITH
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS...BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 7
INCHES IN THESE COUNTIES. FARTHER N LESS SNOW WAS REPORTED IN
CHENANGO CO AND DELWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES...TO THE TUNE OF 2-5
INCHES. I CAN SEE A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN THESE PLACES SO WILL
STICK WITH ADVY THERE. FARTHER S OF THE WARNING AREA...SNOW IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT CONCENTRATING INTO BANDS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL TAPER DOWN
AND WEAKEN...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW TO THE EAST TWD THE POCONOS AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS. I THINK WE WILL SEE SNOW AMNTS OF 2-5 INCHES IN THE
POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SO WILL
CONT ADVY/S IN THE REST OF NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO.
PREVIOUS DSCN IS BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE NJ COAST. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS SET
UP TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ABT UCA TO NORWICH TO
THE CITY OF BINGHAMTON TO AVP. THERE WAS A SECONDARY BAND OF
HEAVIER MIXED PRECIP...FROM DELAWARE CO INTO THE POCONOS. WITH
MORE SHOWERLY LOOKING PRECIP TO THE S AND E. THIS AREA WAS MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND JUST PLAIN RAIN.
THE RAP SHOWS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WAS PRESENTLY AT
THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL WEAKEN. I BELIEVE ANOTHER
BAND WILL FORM FARTHER TO THE S AND E AND AFFECT THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS INTO PIKE CO/SRN WAYNE BTWN 1 AND 4Z. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AT THIS TIME AND THUS
BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS STORM IN OUR AREA WILL BE
OVER. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMNTS DOWN A TOUCH FOR SULLIVAN AND
PIKE CO/S.
FARTHER N AND W...HAVE HAD TO CHASE SNOW AMNTS AS BANDING WAS
LEADING TO RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME SOME OF
THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS WERE RELATED TO THE MELTING LEVEL AND
JUST SLEET AND WET SNOW WAS FALLING WITH LESS ACCUMULATION. SO WE
HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON SPOTTER REPORTS. THANKS TO ALL SPOTTERS WHO
HAVE SENT REPORTS IN...THEY HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL.
WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVY WHERE IT IS IN EFFECT FOR NOW. LIKELY
WILL DROP CORTLAND AND TIOGA CO/S BY 9 PM OR SO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DEFORMATION BAND HAS HALTED ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS. I WILL WAIT
AND SEE ON THIS.
REST OF FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
JUST CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AS COASTAL STORM RIDES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TAKING MOISTURE WITH IT. ONLY LINGERING AFFECT WL BE
CLOUD CVR VRY EARLY IN THE MRNG BFR DRY AIR MVS IN FM THE NW.
SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY AND TEMPS WL HANDILY RISE INTO THE 40S/NR 50
UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN TOMORROW.
500MB HEIGHTS FOR TUESDAY WILL CLIMB TO NR 567DM WITH S/WV RIDGE
BUILDING DIRECTLY OVRHD. GIVEN STRONG MARCH SUN HV GONE ABV
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S/LWR 60S IN THE VLYS. NO
WX IS EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT S/WV APPCHS TUE NGT, SPREADING SHOWERS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY ACRS NRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE..
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH WE STAY PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE, MOVES
THROUGH. WE ARE TALKING ALMOST AN ENTIRELY RAIN EVENT BUT SOME
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN FOR SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY AS OUR REGION
GETS INTO A DRY SLOT. BEYOND SATURDAY WE COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
MONDAY MORNING. VFR MON AFTN ON. IN GENERAL IFR CIGS AT ITH AND
BGM WILL CONTINUE. POSSIBLE IFR AT AVP AND RME IN SNOW UP TO 3Z.
SHARP LINE OF SNOW FROM JUST EAST OF RME AND BGM. THIS LINE
SLOWING BUT MAY MAKE IT TO BOTH SITES THIS EVE WITH IFR VSBYS.
AREA OF SNOW ALSO OVER AVP CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DYING IN PLACE. MVFR CIGS WITH VSBYS IFR AND MVFR AVP. CIGS WILL
REMAIN THE SAME ALL NIGHT BUT AS SNOW ENDS VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR.
AT SYR/ELM/RME MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR VSBYS.
AT ITH/BGM IFR CIGS CONTINUE ALL NIGHT WITH VFR VSBYS. BGM DUE TO
ELEVATION AND ITH DUE TO FETCH OFF CAYUGA LAKE.
AFTER 10Z SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN TO VFR BY 16Z.
NORTH WINDS 10 T0 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT BGM AND AVP INTO
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT THROUGH WED NGT...MAINLY VFR.
THUR/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
8 PM UPDATE...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. CURRENT PRECIP
HAS CHANGED TO SNOW AND SLEET. RUNOFF SHOULD BE CUTTING OFF SOON.
THIS DUE TO TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AND PRECIP IN FROZEN
FORM. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH BY MIDNIGHT.
CURRENT FLOODING IS NINEMILE CREEK AT LAKELAND IN ONONDAGA COUNTY
AND TIOUGHNIOGA RIVER AT CORTLAND IN CORTLAND COUNTY. BOTH SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING THEN FALL BELOW MONDAY. NO
OTHER POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD NOW. NO REPORTS OF ICE JAMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-
047-048-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ039-
040-043.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ045-
046-057-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ056.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
STARTING TO GET CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM VALLEY CITY TO
THIEF RIVER FALLS...OR IN OTHER WORDS THUNDERSNOW (SEE LATEST
SWOMCD FROM SPC FOR MESOSCALE DETAILS). THIS FITS IN WITH WHAT WE
WERE EXPECTING AND HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR IN OUR FORECAST. THIS
THUNDERSNOW IS WHAT WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE LOCALIZED 20 INCHES THAT
SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE.
DID INCREASE SNOWFALL INTO THE 10-12 INCH RANGE FOR VALLEY CITY
AND NORTHWARD DUE TO THE OBSERVED LIGHTNING.
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SNOWBAND IS DRYING ON RADAR...AND
DECREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS AREA. ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT THE
SHARP CUT-OFF IN THE FORECAST...BUT THAT IS DIFFICULT.
LATEST (15Z) HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES AN AREA OF DYING CONVECTION
MOVING INTO THE FERGUS FALLS...WADENA...PARK RAPIDS...AND POSSIBLY
THE BEMIDJI AREA. THE CONCERN HERE CONTINUES TO BE THAT COLD
(BELOW FREEZING) SURFACE AIR WILL UNDERCUT THIS RAINFALL...LEADING
TO MORE SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN. MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF UP TO
0.20 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA...AND
WILL ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS FOR THIS SITUATION IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE EXTREME
BLIZZARD WORDING IN THE HEADLINES APPEARS RELEVANT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
SORRY FOR THE LATE DISCUSSION TODAY. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS
EVENT IS UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED. THE HEAVY SNOW BAND HAS SET UP
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
ANTICIPATE THAT THIS HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME...AND THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD AS THE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD (INTO THE AFTERNOON THE SFC
LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION PROPAGATING NORTH/NORTHEAST). THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA WHERE THE BAND WILL BE
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL THINKING 10-15
INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES. LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH (AND THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FA WHERE DRY AIR
ADVECTING FROM THE NORTH IS CAUSING A SHARP CUT OFF IN SNOW
AMOUNTS). THIS IS ALL IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING...SO ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WHERE NEEDED. SEE OUR LSR REPORTS FOR THE LATEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
WINDS ARE UNFOLDING AS FORECASTED...AND VSBY IS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER MILE WHERE THERE IS FALLING SNOW. IT IS A BLIZZARD.
THERE WAS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WITH AROUND 0.10 INCH ICE REPORTED. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
AS WE APPROACH THE EVENING HOURS (AND THE SFC LOW/FORCING
APPROACHES) EXPECT PRECIP (POSSIBLY DYING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTH) TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA. MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
WOULD FALL AS RAIN...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW FREEZING (ALTHOUGH
THESE TWO FACTORS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN). THUS...DID INCREASE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN HERE THIS EVENING...WITH
ACCUMULATION UP TO 0.20 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
CHALLENGES ABOUND WITH WINTER STORM TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCLUDING
BUT NOT LIMITED TO PRECIP LOCATION/PHASE/AMOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES. GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE FINALLY LOCKED ONTO AN
AGREEABLE SOLUTION...BUT WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON LATEST RAP/HRRR FOR
THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS.
SFC LOW AT 08 UTC ACROSS CENTRAL NE WILL MOVE OVER SIOUX FALLS SD
BY 18 UTC AND THEN TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES BY 00 UTC. INITIAL
DEFORMATION SNOW BAND EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SET UP ALONG A LINE
FROM DICKINSON TO HARVEY TO GRAFTON. RAP/HRRR KEEP THIS PRECIP
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
STRENGTHENS...PRECIP DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE ROBUST ACROSS A
WIDER SWATH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND BY
MID-AFTERNOON ALONG A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO GRAND FORKS TO
WARROAD. IN ADDITION...ANY PRECIP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX GIVEN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0 C. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW IN FARGO AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND NOT UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN. FINE-TUNED SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON
THIS THINKING WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF 10 INCHES OR MORE FROM NEW
ROCKFORD TO GRAFTON TO WARROAD. FARTHER SOUTH FROM VALLEY CITY TO
ADA TO BEMIDJI EXPECT 6 TO 10 INCHES AND ONLY 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE OVER SHORT DISTANCES GIVEN THE NATURE OF THIS WINTER
STORM.
WINDS AT 08 UTC ACROSS EASTERN ND ALREADY SUSTAINED FROM 20 TO 30
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING
FROM 40 TO 50 KTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BEGINS TO FALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. WHETHER AN AREA RECEIVES 2 INCHES OR 12 INCHES OF SNOW...
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS BY THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY RESULTING IN
NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES.
ALTHOUGH CURRENT START-TIMES ON HEADLINES MAY BE 3 TO 6 HOURS
EARLY DEPENDING ON THE PART OF THE COUNTY (NORTHWEST VS SOUTHEAST)...
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPGRADE BLIZZARD WATCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. ALTHOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS...
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN VALLEY AFTER 18 UTC AND AFTER 00 UTC ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MN. ALL HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 12 UTC TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
VERY COLD FOR APRIL FOOLS DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
20S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE FRESH SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THU-FRI
PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOWS TO FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN
ESP IF ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT. IT HAS HELD ONTO A BIT FARTHER
NORTHWEST TRACK THE PAST FEW DAYS COMPARED TO THE GFS. AT THE
PRESENT BASED ON ECMWF GREAT HANDLING OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM WILL
FAVOR IT AND THAT IS WHAT THE ALL BLEND POPS DO IT APPEARS. AFTER
THIS PASSES A BIT WARMER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
STEADIEST SNOW SO FAR HAS MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO KDVL AND KGFK. AS
THE AFTERNOON GOES ON EXPECT IT TO PICK UP AT KTVF/KFAR BUT WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST AT KBJI. SEEMS LIKE ONCE THE SNOW MOVES IN
VSBYS QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS WINDS ARE ALREADY QUITE STRONG. WILL GO
AHEAD AND LEAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE AT KDVL AND THEN BY MID MORNING IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. NOT SURE HOW FAST VSBYS WILL IMPROVE IN THE MORNING
SINCE WINDS WILL STILL BE BLOWING BUT GENERALLY THEY SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE THE SNOW STOPS FALLING AND CLOUDS
DEPART VSBYS ARE BOUND TO IMPROVE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ052-053.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-054.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ029.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
009-013>017-022>024-027-028.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ030-040.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR MNZ031-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
122 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE COUNTIES THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. THE DRY SLOT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
AT LEAST THROUGH 10-12 UTC FOLLOWING THE 04/05 UTC RAP AND HRRR.
GIVEN THE IMPACTS OF THE DRY SLOT AND THUS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BAND EXPECTED INTO MONDAY...SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND DECREASED FOR THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY FOR JAMESTOWN SOUTH. SEE THE LATEST WSW STATEMENT FOR
DETAILS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
AGAIN NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL FOR A
COUPLE HOURS LATE THIS EVENING.
ALREADY REPORTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WEST IN
BILLINGS AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES. VERY STRONG FORCING IS POISED
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPPING SOUTH AND PRODUCE SNOW
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR FROM AROUND BISMARCK WEST TO
THE MONTANA BORDER. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WORD EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. WILL FRESHEN UP AND SEND OUT TEXT PRODUCTS
SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE EARLY EVENING FORECAST OTHER THAN
POPULATING WITH THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. LIGHT
RAIN IS CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS
TIME...WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT
AREAL COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH THE
EVENING. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO TAKE THE STORM TO ITS
FINISH.
MODELS ARE ALL LEANING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS
THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED AND WITH STRONGER
DYNAMICS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...AND
STRONGER WIND IN A TIGHTER GRADIENT.
WILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A DANGEROUS STORM WITH VERY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL...COMMERCE...AND PUBLIC SAFETY...FOR THOSE
AREAS IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING...BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
THROUGH THE DAY HAVE EXPANDED THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO THE NORTHEAST.
RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 10 PM CDT AND
SPREAD NORTHEAST. BY DAYBREAK ALL AREAS SHOULD BE SNOWING WITH
INCREASING WIND.
STORM IS SLOWER TO WIND DOWN. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SNOW ENDS IN THE
NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...JAMESTOWN...
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT SUN
MAR 30 2014
TUESDAY WILL BE A QUIETER DAY BEHIND MONDAYS DEPARTING WINTER STORM
AS A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND HAVE MAINTAINED THIS IN THE GRIDDED DATA.
ANOTHER SOUTHWEST LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE AND BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TRACK OF SYSTEM AS THE GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MAINLY SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF/GEM SHIFT THE INCOMING UPPER LOW CLOSER TO
NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THE ALLBLEND AT THIS TIME
WHICH CAPTURES A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SCENARIO. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES THAT ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH WIDESPREAD IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. KISN AND KMOT WILL EXPERIENCE THE LEAST IMPACTS WITH LESS
WINDS...AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. KDIK...KBIS AND
KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST IMPACTS WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY WITH KJMS REMAINING IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ013-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ010-
017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-
011-012.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-036-037-
047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1202 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WITH A MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION WITH
THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. THE FARTHEST NORTH
MODEL WOULD PUT OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA MORE IN THE CROSSFIRE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW AND OUR SOUTH WOULD MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MODELS DO
NOT SEEM TO FIT A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION. WILL COMPROMISE AND GO
MORE TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH IS NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS AND THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS. SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING SO WE PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW UNTIL
FAIRLY LATE IN THE GAME. CUT SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT OVER OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIP ALONG WITH
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...BLIZZARD AND WINTER WARNINGS STILL LOOK
GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION EASTWARD
OF THE CATEGORICAL PERCENTAGES. DEVILS LAKE HAS HAD SOME RADAR
RETURNS FOR A WHILE BUT JUST NOW STARTED GETTING SOME SNOW. THINK
THAT IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES SEE
MUCH...BUT MOST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WILL SEE SOME SNOW
DEVELOPING BY 06 AND 09Z. THE BEST QPF VALUES CONTINUE TO BE LATER
ON IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP THE
HEADLINES WE HAVE GOING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST AS WE ARE IN A
HOLDING PATTERN UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING INTO THE
AREA. MAY HAVE TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF
POPS BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE BAND TO BEGIN DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BE AROUND 03Z ACCORDING TO SHORT RANGE MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE STORM SYSTEM FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WARNING PHASE. AS OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS HAD CLIMBED INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FA BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST. WINDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH SHIFTED TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION NOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN FA. ALSO
SEEING SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA WITH
SOME 40S IN SOUTHWEST MN. SEEING CLOUD COVER THICKENING A BIT
ACROSS THE AREA BUT STILL SOMEWHAT THIN ALLOWING SOME SUN THRU.
THIS IS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. THICKER CLOUDS AND MORE
SUBSTANTIAL ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND NOW.
MODELS SLOWLY BRING SOME OF THIS NORTHEAST INTO MAINLY THE KDVL
REGION LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD THIS EVENING
AND EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
FA. THEREFORE AS THIS BAND OF PCPN EXPANDS ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT PCPN TYPE COULD BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE. THEREFORE
THINKING SOME FORM OF MIXED PCPN MAY FALL LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA
WHERE TEMPS ARE A LITTLE MILDER. NOT THINKING THIS WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THOUGH...BUT WOULD DEFINITELY ADD TO THE
PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THINKING THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO GET HEAVIER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE KDVL REGION INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CRANK UP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FOR THIS
AREA SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THIS AREA
REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WATCH. AS THE SNOW BAND MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST MN EAST OF THE VALLEY WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS BIG OF A
PROBLEM. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS AREA. MAIN
QUESTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL AFFECT SNOW TOTALS AND EXACTLY WHEN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY GET UNDER WAY. THINK THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AREA TO KEEP THE BLIZZARD WATCH GOING THERE.
FOR THE FARGO MOORHEAD AREA CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY DETERIORATE
ON MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WENT WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THAT
AREA STARTING AT 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS THE TYPE OF SYSTEM THOUGH
THAT THERE COULD INITIALLY BE LARGE VARIATIONS IN CONDITIONS FROM
ONE PORTION OF A COUNTY TO ANOTHER. BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT
TO DO WITH EASTERN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH ADJACENT OFFICES WENT WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS THIS IS DEFINITELY A CHALLENGE.
REALLY THIS IS FORECASTING A RECORD TYPE EVENT SO HARD TO USE MUCH
PERSONAL EXPERIENCE. WENT WITH A BAND OF 20 OR SO INCHES FROM
COOPERSTOWN TO KGFK TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. MOST UNCERTAINTY
MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN. WITH MODELS
TRENDING NORTHWARD THE PAST FEW RUNS AND SLIGHT SHIFT COULD MAKE A
BIG DIFFERENCE. LEFT THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z TUE ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD STILL BE SOMETHING LEFT IN THE EASTERN FA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
LEFT THE TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED TIME FRAME DRY. TEMPS WILL DEPEND
ON SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE MON/TUE STORM.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...12Z MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONG SYSTEM
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK. THE
GEM AND ECMWF BRING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN FA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER TO THE SOUTH.
KEPT THE IDEA OF LOWER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA FOR THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INTO KGFK AND KTVF...SO
SLOWED THE DECREASE OUT OF VFR CIGS FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE KEPT THE CONDITIONS FALLING INTO THE GUTTER BY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FZRA
AT KFAR AND KBJI AT SOME POINT. HAVE THE CONDITIONS REMAINING AT
1/2SM WITH LOW SIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ONLY
SOME MINOR RECOVERY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NDZ052-053.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-054.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ039-
049.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ029.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ015>017-022>024-027-028.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ030-040.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
009-013-014.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ002-
003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ031-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
942 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST UPDATES WILL FOCUS ON VERY NEAR
TERM TRENDS IN TEMP AND CLOUD COVER. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WELL
DEFINED WARM FRONT ESPECIALLY EVIDENT IN DEW POINT FIELD...ROUGHLY
FROM SHAWNEE TO TAHLEQUAH AND INTO NW CORNER OF ARKANSAS. VERY
MILD SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING IN UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WHILE SOME AREAS NORTH HAVE FALLEN INTO MID 40S.
EXPECT BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT REACHING NEAR
OK/KS BORDER BY MORNING...THUS TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE LATER TONIGHT
IN THE NORTH AFTER BOTTOMING OUT IN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE
REMAINING VERY MILD TO THE SOUTH.
TWO AREAS OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL BE
NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT AS HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNAL OF EXPANDING SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NW TEXAS NORTH AND EAST
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE REDUCED POPS IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH 06Z WITH HIGHER CHANCE NEAR OK/KS BORDER AFTER 06Z.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED OVER THE REGION. ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NE OK...MVFR CIGS ARE SCATTERING
OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL GOING INTO
THE EVENING. LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE DVLPMT OF
MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CIGS AT SOME PLACES AFT 06Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE WED AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TSRA COULD AFFECT THE NE OK
SITES THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
OUR AREA.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ARCS FROM SWRN MO INTO SRN OK...WITH NE OK
REMAINING COOL (50S) AND CLOUDY ON THE N SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA AS THE WARM FRONT WILL
ONLY SLOWLY LIFT N THROUGH TONIGHT. PLAN ON SHOWING A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP FOR NE OK...WITH TEMPS LIKELY RISING LATER TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW-END POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO KS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OUR FORECAST
AREA REMAINING IN THE WARM/MOIST (MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS) SECTOR.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHLY CONDITIONAL THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS MODERATE CAP WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS
LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE
TRIPLE-POINT NEAR THE SCNTRL KS/NRN OK BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY DEVELOP INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WITH
STORMS TRACKING E/NE ACROSS ERN OK/NWRN AR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS EJECTS E INTO THE
PLAINS. DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE E THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO ERN
OK WHERE A MOIST/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL EXIST. THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE DRYLINE AROUND 18-21Z...WITH THE
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WRN AR DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE SWEEPS E. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE FORECAST WIND FIELDS...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE IMPACTS THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 51 79 65 78 / 30 30 60 40
FSM 62 77 65 77 / 20 40 60 80
MLC 67 78 66 78 / 20 40 60 60
BVO 49 80 62 76 / 40 30 60 40
FYV 60 75 63 74 / 30 40 60 80
BYV 58 75 61 76 / 30 40 60 80
MKO 59 78 64 78 / 20 40 60 60
MIO 46 77 63 76 / 40 30 60 60
F10 59 78 65 79 / 20 40 60 50
HHW 68 78 66 78 / 20 40 50 60
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1224 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE DRY SLOT AT THIS TIME...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
BLUSTERY WINDS. DID GO AHEAD AND WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL
DEGREES IN THE DRY SLOT...WITH 60S AND 70S LIKELY. COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CRASHING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...EXPECTING ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TO STAY EAST OF OUR
CWA. BEGINNING TO SEE ELEVATED CONVECTION GO ON THE EDGE OF THE DRY
SLOT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND
BECOMES DEEPER IN THIS AREA...A BIT WORRIED THIS COULD BECOME THE
DOMINANT BAND OF SNOW...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PRESENT. LATEST NAM....HRRR AND RAP ARE IN FACT HINTING AT THIS. SO
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BUMP
SNOWFALL TOTALS UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING...AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SECOND AREA OF SNOW MAKES IT. WITH
THE VERY STRONG WINDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CREATE ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
AT THIS TIME...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FINALLY THE MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN HOW THEY TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THAT SAID...THERE ARE STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE WHICH ARE KEY TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE OF COURSE. STILL PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
AND GEM FOR BOTH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
DYNAMICALLY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN PORTION OF THE
UPPER WAVE LIFTING WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS SUIT...AND WILL LIKELY TAKE A TRACK FROM
GREGORY COUNTY SD...TO NEAR MARSHALL MN TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRY SLOT FOR MANY OF OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF TODAY.
CURRENTLY HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
HEADING INTO NORTHWEST IA ALONG THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND POSITIVE THETA E ADVECTION...AND WILL LIKELY EXIT OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES BEFORE MID MORNING ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF REDEVELOPMENT. THE PV SURGE ON THE 1.5 SURFACE
REVEALS DEEPENING TO AROUND 500MB IN NORTHWEST IA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH IS PRETTY STRONG. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PERSISTENT
AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT TODAY...THEN GETS CUTOFF FIRST IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE STRONG PV SURGE MOVES EASTWARD...AND THE
SURFACE FRONT GETS OCCLUDED. SO BY AFTERNOON...THE ONLY REMAINING
ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST MN AS NORTHWEST IA
GETS UNDERCUT WITH STABILIZED AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM FOR A WHILE TODAY IN OUR EAST...
RAPIDLY COOLING HEADING WESTWARD. DID NOT NEED TO ALTER HIGHS MUCH
FROM THE LAST FORECAST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY VARYING
UP TO AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES FROM CHAMBERLAIN TO SIOUX CITY AND
STORM LAKE.
CONCERNING THE WINTER WEATHER...OPTED TO TAKE THE ZONES WHICH WERE
IN THE BLIZZARD WATCH AND PLACED THEM IN A BLIZZARD WARNING.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...NOT A TON OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...RANGING IN
THE WARNING AREA OF ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES. THAT SAID...WE NEED TO
WATCH OUR ZONES IN EAST CENTRAL SD...ESPECIALLY FROM HURON TO
KINGSBURY COUNTY FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THINGS MAY COME
TOGETHER IN EAST CENTRAL SD FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WHEN TROWALING AT THE 300 TO 305K LAYER IS STRONG
COUPLED WITH VERY ABUNDANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS ABUNDANT EVERYWHERE...BUT OUR FAR WESTERN AND FAR
NORTHERN ZONES IS WHERE THIS INSTABILITY CAN TAP INTO THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE PROFILE. SO ADMITTEDLY THIS IS BOTHERSOME...AND HELPED TO
DECIDE WHETHER TO GO BLIZZARD WARNING IN THOSE AREAS AS OPPOSED TO
AN ADVISORY. FURTHERMORE...SOUNDINGS SHOW A DENDRITIC PROFILE
GENERALLY FROM NEAR CHAMBERLAIN TO DE SMET SD...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE BIG SNOW FLAKES FOR ABOUT A 3 OR 4 HOUR WINDOW. SO SOMETHING
FOR THE DAY CREW TO WATCH FOR CONCERNING SNOW AMOUNTS IN THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE SPRING CAN ALWAYS ACCUMULATE IN A BIG HURRY.
ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA...WE WILL KEEP OUR
ADVISORY GOING AS DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHUT OFF RAPIDLY. STILL...
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SNOW TO INTERFERE WITH TRAVEL WHEN WINDS ARE
30 TO 45 MPH...AND IN SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...MIXED
LAYER WINDS ARE CLOSE TO 50 MPH. TEMPERATURES BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST...GIVING A RAPID CHANGEOVER FROM ANY LIGHT RAIN
OVER TO SNOW. EVENTUALLY...THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR EASTERN
ZONES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I 90...VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN TUESDAY AS THE STRING SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL MOMENTARILY DECREASE...BUT
WITH THE EXIT OF THE CURRENT STORM SO FAR NORTHEAST SO QUICKLY...
THE UPPER FLOW BACKS AROUND TO SOUTHWEST ALREADY BY LATE TUESDAY AND
WEAK WAVES BRING PATCHES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION BUT A THERMAL GRADIENT QUICKLY REFORMS ALOFT JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE THREAT OF A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD
SLOWLY REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...THOUGH WITH A LITTLE
WARMING WEDNESDAY.
DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROUGH IS PRESENTING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR A
MAJOR PRECIPITATION SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE EC AS USUAL ID THE STRONGEST AND IS FAVORED HERE. IT SHOULD
HANDLE THE DYNAMICS OF THE THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENTS BETTER
THAN THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM. ANYWAY...BESIDES THE
ANTICIPATED TRACK...WHAT GIVES THIS SYSTEM SO MUCH POTENTIAL IS A
HUGE DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS STREAMING INTO THE
SYSTEM...IN CONTRAST TO THE RELATIVELY DRY INFLOW TO THE CURRENT
STORM. THIS WILL PRESENT THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY...WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE
INFLOW INTO THE AREA TO BE LIMITED BY CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IS
THERE...BUT DWARFED BY THE HUGE GENERAL MOISTURE INFLOW. THE CURRENT
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING WAY TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY DRYING TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...SO THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY DOWN THERE WILL JUST
BE GETTING STEADILY RICHER FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE
STRONG EC WHICH BRINGS SO MUCH MOISTURE INFLOW AND WARMTH INTO THE
SYSTEM ALSO KEEPS IT COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...AND THE
DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM CAN ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE WET SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN.
YES...THIS STORM COULD WIND UP TRACKING EVEN FURTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST
THAN THE CURRENT EC SOLUTION AND THIS COULD AFFECT PRECIP TYPE...
THOUGH IT SEEMS PRETTY MUCH GUARANTEED THAT IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE CURRENT STORM. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET SNOW TO MAKE SURE THAT POTENTIAL IS KNOWN.
ALSO..A FURTHER NORTHWEST TRACK IN THIS THURSDAY SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY
TO DEVOID ANY PART OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE RICH
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. EVEN WITH THE WEAKER AMERICAN
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE MOISTURE INFLOW IS STILL THERE TO BRING PLENTY
OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
WILL BE GOING OF COURSE FOR TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME...TO
BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME WINDS LOOK TO PEAK MODESTLY STRONG...SO WOULD NOT EMPHASIZE ANY
BLIZZARD POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME BUT WOULD NOT RULE IT OUT.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE DAY THE SYSTEM IS PULLING OUT. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE ROOM FOR SOME WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS WHAT WE HAD WITH THE WEEKEND JUST PAST. ALSO...THERE DOES
SEEM TO BE A RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER
SUPPORT IN A REDEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THESE DETAILS COULD
CHANGE WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR ANOTHER MAJOR
SYSTEM SOON AFTER THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ONE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT EARLY SPRING STORM
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN AND SLEET WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW QUICKLY
AS COLDER AIR WRAPS BEHIND THE LOW. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AS THE RAIN TURNS TO SNOW. SNOW MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES....WITH LOCALLY LIFR CEILINGS AND VIS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND INTO THE
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WITH LIFT CONDITIONS IS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PICKSTOWN TO MADISON TO MARSHALL. THIS INCLUDES THE KHON TAF. WINDS
WILL BE AN ONGOING CONCERN AS WELL WITH 25 TO 35 KT SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS TO 50 KT. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SHARPLY
TURN NORTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE...WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KT BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REACH THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY
THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST IOWA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE QUITE
STRONG AT 25 TO 40 MPH. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS WILL HELP TO RAISE
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 30 TO 45 PERCENT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ061-062-066-067.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ065-068>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ050-063-
064.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
SDZ040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR SDZ059-060.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY
FOR SDZ039-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR SDZ055-056.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ038-052-053-057-
058.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ080-081-089-090-098.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ071-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR MNZ097.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-021-
022-032.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ020-031.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1122 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE DRY SLOT AT THIS TIME...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
BLUSTERY WINDS. DID GO AHEAD AND WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL
DEGREES IN THE DRY SLOT...WITH 60S AND 70S LIKELY. COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CRASHING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...EXPECTING ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TO STAY EAST OF OUR
CWA. BEGINNING TO SEE ELEVATED CONVECTION GO ON THE EDGE OF THE DRY
SLOT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND
BECOMES DEEPER IN THIS AREA...A BIT WORRIED THIS COULD BECOME THE
DOMINANT BAND OF SNOW...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PRESENT. LATEST NAM....HRRR AND RAP ARE IN FACT HINTING AT THIS. SO
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BUMP
SNOWFALL TOTALS UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING...AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SECOND AREA OF SNOW MAKES IT. WITH
THE VERY STRONG WINDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CREATE ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
AT THIS TIME...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FINALLY THE MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN HOW THEY TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THAT SAID...THERE ARE STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE WHICH ARE KEY TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE OF COURSE. STILL PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
AND GEM FOR BOTH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
DYNAMICALLY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN PORTION OF THE
UPPER WAVE LIFTING WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS SUIT...AND WILL LIKELY TAKE A TRACK FROM
GREGORY COUNTY SD...TO NEAR MARSHALL MN TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRY SLOT FOR MANY OF OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF TODAY.
CURRENTLY HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
HEADING INTO NORTHWEST IA ALONG THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND POSITIVE THETA E ADVECTION...AND WILL LIKELY EXIT OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES BEFORE MID MORNING ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF REDEVELOPMENT. THE PV SURGE ON THE 1.5 SURFACE
REVEALS DEEPENING TO AROUND 500MB IN NORTHWEST IA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH IS PRETTY STRONG. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PERSISTENT
AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT TODAY...THEN GETS CUTOFF FIRST IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE STRONG PV SURGE MOVES EASTWARD...AND THE
SURFACE FRONT GETS OCCLUDED. SO BY AFTERNOON...THE ONLY REMAINING
ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST MN AS NORTHWEST IA
GETS UNDERCUT WITH STABILIZED AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM FOR A WHILE TODAY IN OUR EAST...
RAPIDLY COOLING HEADING WESTWARD. DID NOT NEED TO ALTER HIGHS MUCH
FROM THE LAST FORECAST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY VARYING
UP TO AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES FROM CHAMBERLAIN TO SIOUX CITY AND
STORM LAKE.
CONCERNING THE WINTER WEATHER...OPTED TO TAKE THE ZONES WHICH WERE
IN THE BLIZZARD WATCH AND PLACED THEM IN A BLIZZARD WARNING.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...NOT A TON OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...RANGING IN
THE WARNING AREA OF ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES. THAT SAID...WE NEED TO
WATCH OUR ZONES IN EAST CENTRAL SD...ESPECIALLY FROM HURON TO
KINGSBURY COUNTY FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THINGS MAY COME
TOGETHER IN EAST CENTRAL SD FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WHEN TROWALING AT THE 300 TO 305K LAYER IS STRONG
COUPLED WITH VERY ABUNDANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS ABUNDANT EVERYWHERE...BUT OUR FAR WESTERN AND FAR
NORTHERN ZONES IS WHERE THIS INSTABILITY CAN TAP INTO THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE PROFILE. SO ADMITTEDLY THIS IS BOTHERSOME...AND HELPED TO
DECIDE WHETHER TO GO BLIZZARD WARNING IN THOSE AREAS AS OPPOSED TO
AN ADVISORY. FURTHERMORE...SOUNDINGS SHOW A DENDRITIC PROFILE
GENERALLY FROM NEAR CHAMBERLAIN TO DE SMET SD...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE BIG SNOW FLAKES FOR ABOUT A 3 OR 4 HOUR WINDOW. SO SOMETHING
FOR THE DAY CREW TO WATCH FOR CONCERNING SNOW AMOUNTS IN THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE SPRING CAN ALWAYS ACCUMULATE IN A BIG HURRY.
ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA...WE WILL KEEP OUR
ADVISORY GOING AS DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHUT OFF RAPIDLY. STILL...
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SNOW TO INTERFERE WITH TRAVEL WHEN WINDS ARE
30 TO 45 MPH...AND IN SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...MIXED
LAYER WINDS ARE CLOSE TO 50 MPH. TEMPERATURES BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST...GIVING A RAPID CHANGEOVER FROM ANY LIGHT RAIN
OVER TO SNOW. EVENTUALLY...THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR EASTERN
ZONES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I 90...VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN TUESDAY AS THE STRING SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL MOMENTARILY DECREASE...BUT
WITH THE EXIT OF THE CURRENT STORM SO FAR NORTHEAST SO QUICKLY...
THE UPPER FLOW BACKS AROUND TO SOUTHWEST ALREADY BY LATE TUESDAY AND
WEAK WAVES BRING PATCHES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION BUT A THERMAL GRADIENT QUICKLY REFORMS ALOFT JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE THREAT OF A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD
SLOWLY REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...THOUGH WITH A LITTLE
WARMING WEDNESDAY.
DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROUGH IS PRESENTING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR A
MAJOR PRECIPITATION SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE EC AS USUAL ID THE STRONGEST AND IS FAVORED HERE. IT SHOULD
HANDLE THE DYNAMICS OF THE THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENTS BETTER
THAN THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM. ANYWAY...BESIDES THE
ANTICIPATED TRACK...WHAT GIVES THIS SYSTEM SO MUCH POTENTIAL IS A
HUGE DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS STREAMING INTO THE
SYSTEM...IN CONTRAST TO THE RELATIVELY DRY INFLOW TO THE CURRENT
STORM. THIS WILL PRESENT THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY...WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE
INFLOW INTO THE AREA TO BE LIMITED BY CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IS
THERE...BUT DWARFED BY THE HUGE GENERAL MOISTURE INFLOW. THE CURRENT
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING WAY TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY DRYING TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...SO THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY DOWN THERE WILL JUST
BE GETTING STEADILY RICHER FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE
STRONG EC WHICH BRINGS SO MUCH MOISTURE INFLOW AND WARMTH INTO THE
SYSTEM ALSO KEEPS IT COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...AND THE
DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM CAN ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE WET SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN.
YES...THIS STORM COULD WIND UP TRACKING EVEN FURTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST
THAN THE CURRENT EC SOLUTION AND THIS COULD AFFECT PRECIP TYPE...
THOUGH IT SEEMS PRETTY MUCH GUARANTEED THAT IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE CURRENT STORM. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET SNOW TO MAKE SURE THAT POTENTIAL IS KNOWN.
ALSO..A FURTHER NORTHWEST TRACK IN THIS THURSDAY SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY
TO DEVOID ANY PART OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE RICH
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. EVEN WITH THE WEAKER AMERICAN
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE MOISTURE INFLOW IS STILL THERE TO BRING PLENTY
OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
WILL BE GOING OF COURSE FOR TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME...TO
BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME WINDS LOOK TO PEAK MODESTLY STRONG...SO WOULD NOT EMPHASIZE ANY
BLIZZARD POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME BUT WOULD NOT RULE IT OUT.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE DAY THE SYSTEM IS PULLING OUT. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE ROOM FOR SOME WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS WHAT WE HAD WITH THE WEEKEND JUST PAST. ALSO...THERE DOES
SEEM TO BE A RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER
SUPPORT IN A REDEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THESE DETAILS COULD
CHANGE WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR ANOTHER MAJOR
SYSTEM SOON AFTER THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ONE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
INITIAL VFR WILL BECOME MVFR CEILINGS 1-3K FEET FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH 01/00Z...BY 15Z AT KHON AND BY 23Z AT KSUX. AFTER 19Z
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO BELOW 3SM IN SN/BLSN NORTHWEST THIRD OF
AREA INCLUDING KHON. AREAS OF 3-5SM IN -RASN THEN LOCAL 1-3SM IN
-SN WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST TO PKS/FSD/MWM LINE BY 01/00Z. SURFACE
GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KTS FROM THE W/NW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY 01/00Z. GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES THEN
CEILING WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 01/03Z. STRONG WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY ABATE AFTER 01/06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REACH THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY
THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST IOWA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE QUITE
STRONG AT 25 TO 40 MPH. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS WILL HELP TO RAISE
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 30 TO 45 PERCENT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ061-062-066-067.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ065-068>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ050-063-
064.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
SDZ040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR SDZ059-060.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY
FOR SDZ039-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR SDZ055-056.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ038-052-053-057-
058.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ080-081-089-090-098.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ071-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR MNZ097.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-021-
022-032.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ020-031.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
625 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
DRYLINE MADE IT JUST TO THE WEST OF KLBB AND IS ALREADY SHOWING
SIGNS OF PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST. WILL SEE A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF
GUSTY S/SSE WINDS BEFORE RELAXING TO AROUND 11KTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW EARLIER
TOMORROW...LIKELY BY 18Z AND BE NEAR 20G30KTS THROUGH THE AFTN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE 3 PM WEST TEXAS MESONET OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE DRYLINE
FIRMING UP ACROSS BAILEY...HOCKLEY AND LYNN COUNTIES...HEADING
EAST. MEANWHILE A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCED FROM THE NRN PERMIAN
BASIN...SEWD TO NEAR SWEETWATER...THEN NEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE IT WAS RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT. UNDERNEATH A
SWATH OF CIRRUS...SOME CU DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED ON SAT IMAGERY NEAR
SWEETWATER...WHERE INSTABILITY WAS BUILDING AS MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
FLOW NWWD INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. SHORT-RANGE PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ MAY REACH STONEWALL COUNTY BY
22-23 UTC. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK...WE DO EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING AS A SMALL
SPEED-MAX IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACHES FROM THE W-SW. WHILE
SB-CAPES APPROACHING 2K J/KG AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KTS
OR SO SHOULD RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WE THINK THAT GIVEN THAT
EXPECTED ISOLATED STORM INITIATION MAY BE MOST FAVORED IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF STONEWALL AND PERHAPS KING COUNTIES...THE THREAT OF SVR
WX WILL BE MAINLY JUST TO OUR EAST AS THE STORMS MOVE NEWD.
HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE ANY T-STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY INTENSITY PRETTY
QUICKLY. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55-60 MPH
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE SMALL STORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY LATE
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. TONIGHT...THE RAP AND THE
HRRR ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODELS IN DEPICTING THE DRYLINE
RETREATING BACK INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL SPLNS...WHICH COULD BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG OR THIN LOW STRATUS TO THE AREA...WHILE THE
NAM AND GFS ARE MUCH LESS BULLISH ON THIS IDEA. FOR NOW...WE/VE
HINTED AT A FARTHER NWWD MOISTURE RETURN BUT HAVE NOT BOUGHT INTO IT
COMPLETELY...AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THE TRENDS. IT
WILL BE MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ALSO
SOME LOW 60S SOUTHEAST.
NO MATTER HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE MOISTURE GETS TONIGHT...IT WILL
BE READILY SCOURED OUT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE FACE OF INCREASING STRONG
AND DEEP SW FLOW. THE DRYLINE MAY STILL HUG OUR ERN BORDER AROUND
NOON-TIME...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED OFF WELL EAST BY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 25 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND THIS
SHOULD KICK UP SOME BLOWING DUST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 70S NW TO NEAR 90 SE.
LONG TERM...
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED
FROM A MODERATELY UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME TO A MORE STABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF LONGWAVE RIDGING TO OUR WEST.
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FOCUSED ON TWO PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS LATER
THIS WEEK IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...ONE FOR THURSDAY AND THE OTHER BY
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FORMER PROMISES TO SWING A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON THURSDAY COMPLETE
WITH BORDERLINE ADVISORY WINDS...BUT THE STRONGEST 850-700MB WINDS
ARE FORTUNATELY SHOWN TO TRANSLATE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION
BEFORE PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF EVEN COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING A WEAK
POLAR FRONT BY SUNSET.
AFTER A FLEETING S/W RIDGE ON FRIDAY...THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH SHOWS
SOME PROMISE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER BY SATURDAY AS IT SPURS
WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION COMPLETE WITH A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH LL DEWPOINTS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
INSPIRING GIVEN THE MODIFIED FETCH OF MOISTURE FOLLOWING THU
NIGHT/S FRONT...AN AXIS OF ISENTROPIC MOISTENING AND LIFT FROM
300-310K COULD SET UP FAVORABLY FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS SETUP
LOOKS TO FAVOR A LOW CAPE AND MODERATE/STRONG SHEAR SCENARIO...SO
WE/LL BE MONITORING THIS IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS THESE DECEPTIVELY
LOW CAPE AIR MASSES CAN GARNER ROTATING STORMS WITH SUCH FAVORABLE
SHEAR AND LIFT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALIVE ALL AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BEFORE SCALING THESE BACK FROM WEST-TO-EAST ON
SUNDAY. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO BE REINFORCED
THEREAFTER AS WE TRANSITION INTO NWLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 27. THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT...WITH POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SW TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH PLAINS...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERY
ELSEWHERE.
THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH VERY
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING EASTWARD.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE CWA AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY FROM 11
AM TO 10 PM.
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IN THE MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL WILDFIRE
THREAT NOW APPEARS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN EARLIER INDICATED GIVEN
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WHICH RARELY COINCIDE WITH ACTIVE WILDFIRE
DAYS. NONETHELESS...MIN RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT COMBINED WITH
20-FT WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WARRANT KEEPING THE FIRE WX WATCH INTACT
AREA WIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 44 75 38 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 43 80 41 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 45 81 43 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 44 80 43 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 49 82 46 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 47 79 47 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 48 81 46 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 53 88 48 77 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 55 86 49 76 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 64 90 50 80 45 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>029-033-034-039-040.
&&
$$
07
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA.
RELATIVELY CLEAN LOOKING DRY SLOT IS PUSHING AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE
INTO SW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
DRY SLOT...SCT TO BKN ARCING LINE SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE DUE
TO PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 10 KFT. SOME SHOWERS LOOK TO BE REACHING
THE GROUND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH. LOOKING FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI VALLEY BUT SKIES ARE CLEAR ALONG IT THANKS TO THE DEEP DRY
SLOT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND SNOW EXIST
WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD. PLENTY OF FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH
TOMORROW...INCLUDING POTENTIAL AND TIMING OF PRECIP...AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TOMORROW.
TONIGHT...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...700MB FRONT/EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WILL WORK NE AND PUSH A BKN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LINE WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY TAME THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SUGGEST
INTENSIFICATION OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FGEN. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS
SCENARIO...SINCE THIS LINE OF SHOWERS HAS STRUGGLED DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF AMPLE DRY AIR...AS DEPICTED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS. WILL
TREND POPS UPWARD OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING...BUT
REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH QPF THAN THE MODELS. THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE DOOR PENINSULA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A RELATIVELY CLEAN DRY SLOT WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH
THIS FRONT SO PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN SMALL. BUT THE MESOMODELS
AND NAM CREATE ELEVATED CAPE UP TO ABOUT 100 J/KG ALONG THE
FRONT...SO SUPPOSE CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND USHER IN A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. PLENTY OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD SO WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL
DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING FAR NE WISCONSIN EARLY
IN THE MORNING AND THEN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO SATURATE ABOVE THE -10C
ISOTHERM...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED POPS OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHERE MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST AND SHOW ABOUT A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH WITH THE COMMA HEAD THROUGH THE DAY.
ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT SPRING
STORM TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEY AGREE THAT A UPPER TOUGH WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS WISCONSIN
WITH SOME PHASING WITH JET ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE
ARE MORE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND 850MB.
THE ECMWF IS WARMEST AND WOULD PRODUCE MORE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS WOULD PRODUCE
MOSTLY SNOW. WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD THIS SHOULD BE A VIGOROUS SYSTEM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW IN SOME PLACES AND PERHAPS
SIGNIFICANT ICE IN OTHERS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER THE PACIFIC
SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECASTS.
DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...VFR CONDITIONS
BUT WITH LLWS WILL PREVAIL. BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS RUNNING
INTO AMPLE DRY AIR AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE A MENTION FROM THE TAFS. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO REDEVELOPS THIS BAND OF RAIN THIS EVENING OVER NE
WISCONSIN. WILL STILL HAVE DRY AIR AROUND...SO NOT CONFIDENT OF
THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING EITHER. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION REGION MAINLY DURING THE 07-11Z TIME PERIOD.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER IN A
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. CIGS MAY FALL BELOW MVFR LEVELS OVER N-C
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THAT COULD DROP VSBYS TO
MVFR OR IFR...BUT LEFT AS MVFR FOR NOW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1248 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED NICELY ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA ON RADAR. DESPITE THE NUMEROUS LOOKING COVERAGE...1
HOUR METAR OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL ONLY SHOWING MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS. RAP TRENDS ARE LOOKING MORE PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THOUGH...SO FELT IT IS WARRANTED
TO RAISE CHANCES SOME. RAP STILL DIMINISHES THE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH MAKES
SENSE AS IT RUNS INTO DRY AIR AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING MIXES OUT.
ALREADY INTRODUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER PRIOR TO 15Z
WEST OF HIGHWAY 52. LOOKS LIKE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WANES THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A VARIETY OF IMPACTS EXIST IN THE SHORT TERM FROM AN APPROACHING
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE. HAVE TRIED TO EXPLAIN THEM THE BEST IN
AN ORGANIZED FASHION BELOW.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH JUST OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST...A NEGATIVELY
TILTED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND RIDGING FROM
LOUISIANA INTO MICHIGAN. PLENTIFUL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WATER
VAPOR WAS STREAMING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS SCT-BKN
CIRRUS. BELOW THESE CLOUDS...A DRY AIRMASS EXISTS AS SEEN ON A 00Z
700MB AND 850MB RAOB PLOT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-20C FROM
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING IN THE SAME AREA...HOWEVER...NOW ABOUT 5-15
DEGREES HIGHER. THIS INCREASE WAS DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY 925MB WIND
OF 40-55 KT FROM THE FORECAST AREA DOWN INTO TEXAS...HELPING TO
BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE WINDS ARE ALSO HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S. 925MB TEMPS WERE
ANALYZED PER RAP AT 08Z OF 9-13C...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 00Z RAOBS. TO
THE WEST...A 988MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF ALLIANCE NEBRASKA. A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EAST OF THIS LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS PUTS
THE SHOWERS ROOTED AROUND 600MB. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...500MB HEIGHT PROGS FROM MODELS ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL NOW...BOTH IN TIMING AND STRENGTH...FOR THE TRACK OF THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. OVERALL TREND
OVER THE PAST WEEK FROM MODELS WAS A SLOWER...DEEPER AND MORE
NORTHWEST TRACK. CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
WATERTOWN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE DULUTH MN AREA BY
12Z TUE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
TAKES NEARLY THE SAME ROUTE...WITH THE PRESSURE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE.
PRECIPITATION...THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE/500MB FEATURES ARE
GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH ALL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. IF THERE WAS MORE
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SAY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S...THIS MIGHT BE A DIFFERENT STORY. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 3 WAVES OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...
1. THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS LIFT LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE PLENTIFUL LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY MAKE IT TOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...OVERALL MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LESS AND LESS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...WITH
THE REGIONAL CANADIAN AND TO SOME DEGREE THE RAP EVEN SUGGESTING
DRY. HAVE LOWERED CHANCES TO 20-30 WITH THIS WAVE.
2. THE SECOND WAVE OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COMES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS COLD FRONT. THERES A GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A NARROW LINE OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR
I-35 NEAR 00Z...CORRELATING WELL WITH AN AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE 0-
2KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET.
31.00Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF 1 HOUR PERIOD OF THE SHOWERS...
WHERE ALSO CAPE ROOTED ABOVE 850MB CLIMBS TO 200-300 J/KG. THIS CAPE
AND FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
GIVEN LIKELY INVERTED-V SOUNDING AND 850MB WINDS OF 45-50 KT...THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE ISOLATED.
3. THE FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF SNOW
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE AND MORE NORTHWEST
WITH THE REACH OF THE COLD CONVEYOR. AS IT STANDS NOW...LOCATIONS
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AUSTIN MN TO WAUSAU WI LOOK TO SEE
THE SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE SNOW MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
AS SUCH...ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES...925MB READINGS ARE PROGGED TO MOSTLY HOLD IN THE 9-
13C RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WARMEST TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AT
TIME OF PEAK MIXING. THE WARMER START TO THE DAY PLUS LIMITED IMPACT
FROM PRECIPITATION WOULD SUPPORT A WARMER SCENARIO. IN ADDITION...IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN BOTH EARLY IN THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BREEZY SOUTH WIND AIDING IN ADVECTING
WARMER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH TOO...SEEMS LIKE A SITUATION TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. DO THINK...THOUGH...THE MET
SHOWING 70-71 FOR BLACK RIVER FALLS...WINONA AND BOSCOBEL IS A BIT
TOO AMBITIOUS. READINGS WILL REALLY TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. BY 12Z TUE...925MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED BETWEEN -5 AND -7C. A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.
WINDS...925MB WINDS OF 30-40 KT HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THESE SHOULD PICK UP TOWARDS 45 KT AS
THE LOW AND FRONT NEAR. THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THE DAYTIME MIXING PLUS ISALLOBARIC HELP SHOULD
PUSH WIND GUSTS TOWARDS THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. THEN WE HAVE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH
925MB WINDS ALSO 30-40 KT AIDED TOO BY A PRESSURE RISE. MUCH OF THIS
SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN...RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WITH MAYBE
SOME HIGHER ONES TOWARDS 45 MPH. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
MPX...DMX...DVN AND MKX...SETTLED ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOSTLY THE
COUNTIES ALONG/WEST OF US-52. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED EXPANSION TO
THE EAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI DURING THE DAY SHIFT. FOR NOW PUT
THESE COUNTIES IN AN SPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES AND WE REALLY NEED TO WATCH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY CLOSELY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER IN EXITING THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE
SPED UP THE EXITING OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT SNOW AND BRINGING IN
CLEARING QUICKER. WITH A FASTER EXIT...IT APPEARS THOSE LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SNOW WILL SEE VERY LITTLE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
START OFF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN WHERE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES...SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER
SHOT TO LIGHTEN UP THE WINDS COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90.
THE NEXT CONCERN ON THE HORIZON INVOLVES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SUBJECTIVELY...THAT TROUGH LOOKS A LOT
MEANER THAN THE ONE COMING INTO THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING THIS FEATURE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING RIDGING AND A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE BIG PROBLEM HERE IS THAT THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MOSTLY
OCCURS ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN EASTERLY FLOW
COMING OUT OF COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND ONTARIO. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE ALL INDICATING A LEAD WAVE OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IMPACTING MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE CONCERNS WITH A
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS TO IMPACT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN ADDITION...EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE
EASTERLY FLOW OF DRY AIR COMBINING WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAY SEND
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FORECAST INCLUDES A
VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TROUGH
WHICH THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE ALL TRENDING
TOWARDS THE DEEP ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS TROUGH LIFTS UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A MUCH DEEPER PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING WET SNOW...PARTICULARLY
OVER OUR NORTHWEST...TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
WI THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO SAY...RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
60-70 RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUIESDAY MORNING. KRST WILL SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS.
KLSE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 35 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND WEST OVERNIGHT.
BETWEEN 31.23Z AND 01.04Z A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
IOSOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST AROUND 01.00Z AND KLSE AROUND
01.02Z. DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE MAY ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS
FROM THIS CONVECTION RESULTING IN MUCH STRONGER WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS.
BEHIND THIS LINE...THERE WILL BE A BROKEN 2500 TO 3500 FOOT DECK.
THIS LINE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON POSES SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER.
DEWPOINTS ALSO SHOULD MIX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHICH SAW THAT HAPPEN YESTERDAY.
FUELS ALSO WERE ABLE TO DRY OUT SOME FROM YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY DROP TO A MINIMUM OF 35
PERCENT...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS.
ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COMING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT DRY AIR EXISTS BELOW THE CLOUD
BASES...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL.
THUS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS...SO IF A FIRE WOULD GET
STARTED...THE WIND COULD HELP IT SPREAD A LITTLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TREMPEALEAU...JACKSON AND CLARK
COUNTIES. BOTH THE BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO
THE SNOWMELT THAT HAS OCCURRED YESTERDAY THROUGH NOW. CONTINUED
RAPID SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FROM TEMPERATURES PEAKING UP
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL ALLOW THE RIVERS TO CONTINUE RISING.
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED SOMETIME
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ON THE BLACK SINCE THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER BASIN
MAY BE EXHAUSTED OF SNOWMELT. SHOULD BE A CLOSE CALL ON THE
TREMPEALEAU AT DODGE...THOUGH.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...CONCERN IS GROWING OF A
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD
CLOSELY. LUCKILY THERE ISNT GOING TO BE ANY SNOWMELT OVER THAT
AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ029-033-034.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED NICELY ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA ON RADAR. DESPITE THE NUMEROUS LOOKING COVERAGE...1
HOUR METAR OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL ONLY SHOWING MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS. RAP TRENDS ARE LOOKING MORE PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THOUGH...SO FELT IT IS WARRANTED
TO RAISE CHANCES SOME. RAP STILL DIMINISHES THE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH MAKES
SENSE AS IT RUNS INTO DRY AIR AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING MIXES OUT.
ALREADY INTRODUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER PRIOR TO 15Z
WEST OF HIGHWAY 52. LOOKS LIKE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WANES THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A VARIETY OF IMPACTS EXIST IN THE SHORT TERM FROM AN APPROACHING
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE. HAVE TRIED TO EXPLAIN THEM THE BEST IN
AN ORGANIZED FASHION BELOW.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH JUST OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST...A NEGATIVELY
TILTED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND RIDGING FROM
LOUISIANA INTO MICHIGAN. PLENTIFUL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WATER
VAPOR WAS STREAMING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS SCT-BKN
CIRRUS. BELOW THESE CLOUDS...A DRY AIRMASS EXISTS AS SEEN ON A 00Z
700MB AND 850MB RAOB PLOT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-20C FROM
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING IN THE SAME AREA...HOWEVER...NOW ABOUT 5-15
DEGREES HIGHER. THIS INCREASE WAS DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY 925MB WIND
OF 40-55 KT FROM THE FORECAST AREA DOWN INTO TEXAS...HELPING TO
BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE WINDS ARE ALSO HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S. 925MB TEMPS WERE
ANALYZED PER RAP AT 08Z OF 9-13C...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 00Z RAOBS. TO
THE WEST...A 988MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF ALLIANCE NEBRASKA. A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EAST OF THIS LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS PUTS
THE SHOWERS ROOTED AROUND 600MB. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...500MB HEIGHT PROGS FROM MODELS ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL NOW...BOTH IN TIMING AND STRENGTH...FOR THE TRACK OF THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. OVERALL TREND
OVER THE PAST WEEK FROM MODELS WAS A SLOWER...DEEPER AND MORE
NORTHWEST TRACK. CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
WATERTOWN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE DULUTH MN AREA BY
12Z TUE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
TAKES NEARLY THE SAME ROUTE...WITH THE PRESSURE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE.
PRECIPITATION...THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE/500MB FEATURES ARE
GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH ALL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. IF THERE WAS MORE
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SAY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S...THIS MIGHT BE A DIFFERENT STORY. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 3 WAVES OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...
1. THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS LIFT LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE PLENTIFUL LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY MAKE IT TOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...OVERALL MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LESS AND LESS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...WITH
THE REGIONAL CANADIAN AND TO SOME DEGREE THE RAP EVEN SUGGESTING
DRY. HAVE LOWERED CHANCES TO 20-30 WITH THIS WAVE.
2. THE SECOND WAVE OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COMES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS COLD FRONT. THERES A GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A NARROW LINE OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR
I-35 NEAR 00Z...CORRELATING WELL WITH AN AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE 0-
2KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET.
31.00Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF 1 HOUR PERIOD OF THE SHOWERS...
WHERE ALSO CAPE ROOTED ABOVE 850MB CLIMBS TO 200-300 J/KG. THIS CAPE
AND FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
GIVEN LIKELY INVERTED-V SOUNDING AND 850MB WINDS OF 45-50 KT...THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE ISOLATED.
3. THE FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF SNOW
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE AND MORE NORTHWEST
WITH THE REACH OF THE COLD CONVEYOR. AS IT STANDS NOW...LOCATIONS
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AUSTIN MN TO WAUSAU WI LOOK TO SEE
THE SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE SNOW MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
AS SUCH...ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES...925MB READINGS ARE PROGGED TO MOSTLY HOLD IN THE 9-
13C RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WARMEST TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AT
TIME OF PEAK MIXING. THE WARMER START TO THE DAY PLUS LIMITED IMPACT
FROM PRECIPITATION WOULD SUPPORT A WARMER SCENARIO. IN ADDITION...IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN BOTH EARLY IN THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BREEZY SOUTH WIND AIDING IN ADVECTING
WARMER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH TOO...SEEMS LIKE A SITUATION TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. DO THINK...THOUGH...THE MET
SHOWING 70-71 FOR BLACK RIVER FALLS...WINONA AND BOSCOBEL IS A BIT
TOO AMBITIOUS. READINGS WILL REALLY TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. BY 12Z TUE...925MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED BETWEEN -5 AND -7C. A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.
WINDS...925MB WINDS OF 30-40 KT HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THESE SHOULD PICK UP TOWARDS 45 KT AS
THE LOW AND FRONT NEAR. THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THE DAYTIME MIXING PLUS ISALLOBARIC HELP SHOULD
PUSH WIND GUSTS TOWARDS THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. THEN WE HAVE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH
925MB WINDS ALSO 30-40 KT AIDED TOO BY A PRESSURE RISE. MUCH OF THIS
SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN...RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WITH MAYBE
SOME HIGHER ONES TOWARDS 45 MPH. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
MPX...DMX...DVN AND MKX...SETTLED ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOSTLY THE
COUNTIES ALONG/WEST OF US-52. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED EXPANSION TO
THE EAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI DURING THE DAY SHIFT. FOR NOW PUT
THESE COUNTIES IN AN SPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES AND WE REALLY NEED TO WATCH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY CLOSELY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER IN EXITING THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE
SPED UP THE EXITING OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT SNOW AND BRINGING IN
CLEARING QUICKER. WITH A FASTER EXIT...IT APPEARS THOSE LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SNOW WILL SEE VERY LITTLE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
START OFF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN WHERE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES...SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER
SHOT TO LIGHTEN UP THE WINDS COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90.
THE NEXT CONCERN ON THE HORIZON INVOLVES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SUBJECTIVELY...THAT TROUGH LOOKS A LOT
MEANER THAN THE ONE COMING INTO THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING THIS FEATURE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING RIDGING AND A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE BIG PROBLEM HERE IS THAT THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MOSTLY
OCCURS ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN EASTERLY FLOW
COMING OUT OF COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND ONTARIO. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE ALL INDICATING A LEAD WAVE OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IMPACTING MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE CONCERNS WITH A
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS TO IMPACT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN ADDITION...EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE
EASTERLY FLOW OF DRY AIR COMBINING WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAY SEND
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FORECAST INCLUDES A
VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TROUGH
WHICH THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE ALL TRENDING
TOWARDS THE DEEP ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS TROUGH LIFTS UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A MUCH DEEPER PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING WET SNOW...PARTICULARLY
OVER OUR NORTHWEST...TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
WI THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO SAY...RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
60-70 RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA AND INTO
THE REGION TODAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT KRST STANDS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO OUT OF THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES EAST AND RUNS INTO DRIER AIR. KLSE MAY
SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATER THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 18 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS
RANGING FROM 27 TO 35 KTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KTS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO...A STRATUS DECK MAY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON POSES SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER.
DEWPOINTS ALSO SHOULD MIX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHICH SAW THAT HAPPEN YESTERDAY.
FUELS ALSO WERE ABLE TO DRY OUT SOME FROM YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY DROP TO A MINIMUM OF 35
PERCENT...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS.
ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COMING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT DRY AIR EXISTS BELOW THE CLOUD
BASES...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL.
THUS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS...SO IF A FIRE WOULD GET
STARTED...THE WIND COULD HELP IT SPREAD A LITTLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TREMPEALEAU...JACKSON AND CLARK
COUNTIES. BOTH THE BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO
THE SNOWMELT THAT HAS OCCURRED YESTERDAY THROUGH NOW. CONTINUED
RAPID SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FROM TEMPERATURES PEAKING UP
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL ALLOW THE RIVERS TO CONTINUE RISING.
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED SOMETIME
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ON THE BLACK SINCE THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER BASIN
MAY BE EXHAUSTED OF SNOWMELT. SHOULD BE A CLOSE CALL ON THE
TREMPEALEAU AT DODGE...THOUGH.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...CONCERN IS GROWING OF A
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD
CLOSELY. LUCKILY THERE ISNT GOING TO BE ANY SNOWMELT OVER THAT
AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ029-033-034.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
527 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED NICELY ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA ON RADAR. DESPITE THE NUMEROUS LOOKING COVERAGE...1
HOUR METAR OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL ONLY SHOWING MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS. RAP TRENDS ARE LOOKING MORE PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THOUGH...SO FELT IT IS WARRANTED
TO RAISE CHANCES SOME. RAP STILL DIMINISHES THE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH MAKES
SENSE AS IT RUNS INTO DRY AIR AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING MIXES OUT.
ALREADY INTRODUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER PRIOR TO 15Z
WEST OF HIGHWAY 52. LOOKS LIKE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WANES THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A VARIETY OF IMPACTS EXIST IN THE SHORT TERM FROM AN APPROACHING
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE. HAVE TRIED TO EXPLAIN THEM THE BEST IN
AN ORGANIZED FASHION BELOW.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH JUST OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST...A NEGATIVELY
TILTED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND RIDGING FROM
LOUISIANA INTO MICHIGAN. PLENTIFUL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WATER
VAPOR WAS STREAMING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS SCT-BKN
CIRRUS. BELOW THESE CLOUDS...A DRY AIRMASS EXISTS AS SEEN ON A 00Z
700MB AND 850MB RAOB PLOT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-20C FROM
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING IN THE SAME AREA...HOWEVER...NOW ABOUT 5-15
DEGREES HIGHER. THIS INCREASE WAS DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY 925MB WIND
OF 40-55 KT FROM THE FORECAST AREA DOWN INTO TEXAS...HELPING TO
BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE WINDS ARE ALSO HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S. 925MB TEMPS WERE
ANALYZED PER RAP AT 08Z OF 9-13C...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 00Z RAOBS. TO
THE WEST...A 988MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF ALLIANCE NEBRASKA. A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EAST OF THIS LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS PUTS
THE SHOWERS ROOTED AROUND 600MB. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...500MB HEIGHT PROGS FROM MODELS ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL NOW...BOTH IN TIMING AND STRENGTH...FOR THE TRACK OF THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. OVERALL TREND
OVER THE PAST WEEK FROM MODELS WAS A SLOWER...DEEPER AND MORE
NORTHWEST TRACK. CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
WATERTOWN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE DULUTH MN AREA BY
12Z TUE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
TAKES NEARLY THE SAME ROUTE...WITH THE PRESSURE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE.
PRECIPITATION...THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE/500MB FEATURES ARE
GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH ALL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. IF THERE WAS MORE
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SAY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S...THIS MIGHT BE A DIFFERENT STORY. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 3 WAVES OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...
1. THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS LIFT LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE PLENTIFUL LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY MAKE IT TOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...OVERALL MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LESS AND LESS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...WITH
THE REGIONAL CANADIAN AND TO SOME DEGREE THE RAP EVEN SUGGESTING
DRY. HAVE LOWERED CHANCES TO 20-30 WITH THIS WAVE.
2. THE SECOND WAVE OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COMES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS COLD FRONT. THERES A GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A NARROW LINE OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR
I-35 NEAR 00Z...CORRELATING WELL WITH AN AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE 0-
2KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET.
31.00Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF 1 HOUR PERIOD OF THE SHOWERS...
WHERE ALSO CAPE ROOTED ABOVE 850MB CLIMBS TO 200-300 J/KG. THIS CAPE
AND FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
GIVEN LIKELY INVERTED-V SOUNDING AND 850MB WINDS OF 45-50 KT...THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE ISOLATED.
3. THE FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF SNOW
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE AND MORE NORTHWEST
WITH THE REACH OF THE COLD CONVEYOR. AS IT STANDS NOW...LOCATIONS
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AUSTIN MN TO WAUSAU WI LOOK TO SEE
THE SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE SNOW MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
AS SUCH...ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES...925MB READINGS ARE PROGGED TO MOSTLY HOLD IN THE 9-
13C RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WARMEST TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AT
TIME OF PEAK MIXING. THE WARMER START TO THE DAY PLUS LIMITED IMPACT
FROM PRECIPITATION WOULD SUPPORT A WARMER SCENARIO. IN ADDITION...IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN BOTH EARLY IN THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BREEZY SOUTH WIND AIDING IN ADVECTING
WARMER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH TOO...SEEMS LIKE A SITUATION TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. DO THINK...THOUGH...THE MET
SHOWING 70-71 FOR BLACK RIVER FALLS...WINONA AND BOSCOBEL IS A BIT
TOO AMBITIOUS. READINGS WILL REALLY TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. BY 12Z TUE...925MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED BETWEEN -5 AND -7C. A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.
WINDS...925MB WINDS OF 30-40 KT HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THESE SHOULD PICK UP TOWARDS 45 KT AS
THE LOW AND FRONT NEAR. THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THE DAYTIME MIXING PLUS ISALLOBARIC HELP SHOULD
PUSH WIND GUSTS TOWARDS THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. THEN WE HAVE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH
925MB WINDS ALSO 30-40 KT AIDED TOO BY A PRESSURE RISE. MUCH OF THIS
SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN...RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WITH MAYBE
SOME HIGHER ONES TOWARDS 45 MPH. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
MPX...DMX...DVN AND MKX...SETTLED ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOSTLY THE
COUNTIES ALONG/WEST OF US-52. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED EXPANSION TO
THE EAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI DURING THE DAY SHIFT. FOR NOW PUT
THESE COUNTIES IN AN SPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES AND WE REALLY NEED TO WATCH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY CLOSELY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER IN EXITING THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE
SPED UP THE EXITING OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT SNOW AND BRINGING IN
CLEARING QUICKER. WITH A FASTER EXIT...IT APPEARS THOSE LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SNOW WILL SEE VERY LITTLE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
START OFF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN WHERE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES...SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER
SHOT TO LIGHTEN UP THE WINDS COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90.
THE NEXT CONCERN ON THE HORIZON INVOLVES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SUBJECTIVELY...THAT TROUGH LOOKS A LOT
MEANER THAN THE ONE COMING INTO THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING THIS FEATURE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING RIDGING AND A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE BIG PROBLEM HERE IS THAT THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MOSTLY
OCCURS ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN EASTERLY FLOW
COMING OUT OF COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND ONTARIO. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE ALL INDICATING A LEAD WAVE OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IMPACTING MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE CONCERNS WITH A
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS TO IMPACT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN ADDITION...EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE
EASTERLY FLOW OF DRY AIR COMBINING WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAY SEND
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FORECAST INCLUDES A
VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TROUGH
WHICH THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE ALL TRENDING
TOWARDS THE DEEP ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS TROUGH LIFTS UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A MUCH DEEPER PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING WET SNOW...PARTICULARLY
OVER OUR NORTHWEST...TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
WI THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO SAY...RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
60-70 RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
SEVERAL DETAILS TO DEPICT IN THIS SET OF FORECASTS. THE FIRST IS
THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS FOR MONDAY. ONCE THE INVERSION
BEGINS TO MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING...STRONG WIND SPEEDS WILL EXIST
IN THE MIXED LAYER TO GET BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE 31.00Z
NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO REACH INTO
THE MID 30 KNOT RANGE AT KRST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT KLSE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FAST MOVING ELEVATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF. NOT EXPECTING THESE TO LAST VERY LONG BUT FEEL THE
WINDS ARE MORE IMPORTANT FOR TIMING...SO WILL SHOW A LONGER WINDOW
OF A SHOWER CHANCE THAN WILL LIKELY OCCUR. A SECOND CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM...WILL COME AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE CAPE IS ONLY
ABOUT 200 J/KG FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AND CONFIDENCE ON THIS ACTUALLY
PRODUCING THUNDER IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. ONCE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT AND REMAIN GUSTY. GOOD
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON POSES SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER.
DEWPOINTS ALSO SHOULD MIX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHICH SAW THAT HAPPEN YESTERDAY.
FUELS ALSO WERE ABLE TO DRY OUT SOME FROM YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY DROP TO A MINIMUM OF 35
PERCENT...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS.
ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COMING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT DRY AIR EXISTS BELOW THE CLOUD
BASES...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL.
THUS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS...SO IF A FIRE WOULD GET
STARTED...THE WIND COULD HELP IT SPREAD A LITTLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TREMPEALEAU...JACKSON AND CLARK
COUNTIES. BOTH THE BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO
THE SNOWMELT THAT HAS OCCURRED YESTERDAY THROUGH NOW. CONTINUED
RAPID SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FROM TEMPERATURES PEAKING UP
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL ALLOW THE RIVERS TO CONTINUE RISING.
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED SOMETIME
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ON THE BLACK SINCE THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER BASIN
MAY BE EXHAUSTED OF SNOWMELT. SHOULD BE A CLOSE CALL ON THE
TREMPEALEAU AT DODGE...THOUGH.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...CONCERN IS GROWING OF A
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD
CLOSELY. LUCKILY THERE ISNT GOING TO BE ANY SNOWMELT OVER THAT
AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ029-033-034.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A VARIETY OF IMPACTS EXIST IN THE SHORT TERM FROM AN APPROACHING
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE. HAVE TRIED TO EXPLAIN THEM THE BEST IN
AN ORGANIZED FASHION BELOW.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH JUST OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST...A NEGATIVELY
TILTED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND RIDGING FROM
LOUISIANA INTO MICHIGAN. PLENTIFUL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WATER
VAPOR WAS STREAMING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS SCT-BKN
CIRRUS. BELOW THESE CLOUDS...A DRY AIRMASS EXISTS AS SEEN ON A 00Z
700MB AND 850MB RAOB PLOT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-20C FROM
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING IN THE SAME AREA...HOWEVER...NOW ABOUT 5-15
DEGREES HIGHER. THIS INCREASE WAS DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY 925MB WIND
OF 40-55 KT FROM THE FORECAST AREA DOWN INTO TEXAS...HELPING TO
BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE WINDS ARE ALSO HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S. 925MB TEMPS WERE
ANALYZED PER RAP AT 08Z OF 9-13C...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 00Z RAOBS. TO
THE WEST...A 988MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF ALLIANCE NEBRASKA. A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EAST OF THIS LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS PUTS
THE SHOWERS ROOTED AROUND 600MB. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...500MB HEIGHT PROGS FROM MODELS ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL NOW...BOTH IN TIMING AND STRENGTH...FOR THE TRACK OF THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. OVERALL TREND
OVER THE PAST WEEK FROM MODELS WAS A SLOWER...DEEPER AND MORE
NORTHWEST TRACK. CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
WATERTOWN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE DULUTH MN AREA BY
12Z TUE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
TAKES NEARLY THE SAME ROUTE...WITH THE PRESSURE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE.
PRECIPITATION...THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE/500MB FEATURES ARE
GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH ALL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. IF THERE WAS MORE
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SAY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S...THIS MIGHT BE A DIFFERENT STORY. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 3 WAVES OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...
1. THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS LIFT LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE PLENTIFUL LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY MAKE IT TOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...OVERALL MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LESS AND LESS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...WITH
THE REGIONAL CANADIAN AND TO SOME DEGREE THE RAP EVEN SUGGESTING
DRY. HAVE LOWERED CHANCES TO 20-30 WITH THIS WAVE.
2. THE SECOND WAVE OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COMES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS COLD FRONT. THERES A GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A NARROW LINE OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR
I-35 NEAR 00Z...CORRELATING WELL WITH AN AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE 0-
2KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET.
31.00Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF 1 HOUR PERIOD OF THE SHOWERS...
WHERE ALSO CAPE ROOTED ABOVE 850MB CLIMBS TO 200-300 J/KG. THIS CAPE
AND FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
GIVEN LIKELY INVERTED-V SOUNDING AND 850MB WINDS OF 45-50 KT...THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE ISOLATED.
3. THE FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF SNOW
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE AND MORE NORTHWEST
WITH THE REACH OF THE COLD CONVEYOR. AS IT STANDS NOW...LOCATIONS
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AUSTIN MN TO WAUSAU WI LOOK TO SEE
THE SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE SNOW MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
AS SUCH...ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES...925MB READINGS ARE PROGGED TO MOSTLY HOLD IN THE 9-
13C RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WARMEST TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AT
TIME OF PEAK MIXING. THE WARMER START TO THE DAY PLUS LIMITED IMPACT
FROM PRECIPITATION WOULD SUPPORT A WARMER SCENARIO. IN ADDITION...IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN BOTH EARLY IN THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BREEZY SOUTH WIND AIDING IN ADVECTING
WARMER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH TOO...SEEMS LIKE A SITUATION TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. DO THINK...THOUGH...THE MET
SHOWING 70-71 FOR BLACK RIVER FALLS...WINONA AND BOSCOBEL IS A BIT
TOO AMBITIOUS. READINGS WILL REALLY TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. BY 12Z TUE...925MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED BETWEEN -5 AND -7C. A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.
WINDS...925MB WINDS OF 30-40 KT HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THESE SHOULD PICK UP TOWARDS 45 KT AS
THE LOW AND FRONT NEAR. THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THE DAYTIME MIXING PLUS ISALLOBARIC HELP SHOULD
PUSH WIND GUSTS TOWARDS THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. THEN WE HAVE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH
925MB WINDS ALSO 30-40 KT AIDED TOO BY A PRESSURE RISE. MUCH OF THIS
SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN...RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WITH MAYBE
SOME HIGHER ONES TOWARDS 45 MPH. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
MPX...DMX...DVN AND MKX...SETTLED ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOSTLY THE
COUNTIES ALONG/WEST OF US-52. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED EXPANSION TO
THE EAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI DURING THE DAY SHIFT. FOR NOW PUT
THESE COUNTIES IN AN SPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES AND WE REALLY NEED TO WATCH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY CLOSELY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER IN EXITING THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE
SPED UP THE EXITING OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT SNOW AND BRINGING IN
CLEARING QUICKER. WITH A FASTER EXIT...IT APPEARS THOSE LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SNOW WILL SEE VERY LITTLE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
START OFF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN WHERE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES...SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER
SHOT TO LIGHTEN UP THE WINDS COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90.
THE NEXT CONCERN ON THE HORIZON INVOLVES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SUBJECTIVELY...THAT TROUGH LOOKS A LOT
MEANER THAN THE ONE COMING INTO THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING THIS FEATURE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING RIDGING AND A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE BIG PROBLEM HERE IS THAT THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MOSTLY
OCCURS ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN EASTERLY FLOW
COMING OUT OF COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND ONTARIO. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE ALL INDICATING A LEAD WAVE OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IMPACTING MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE CONCERNS WITH A
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS TO IMPACT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN ADDITION...EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE
EASTERLY FLOW OF DRY AIR COMBINING WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAY SEND
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FORECAST INCLUDES A
VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TROUGH
WHICH THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE ALL TRENDING
TOWARDS THE DEEP ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS TROUGH LIFTS UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A MUCH DEEPER PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING WET SNOW...PARTICULARLY
OVER OUR NORTHWEST...TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
WI THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO SAY...RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
60-70 RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
SEVERAL DETAILS TO DEPICT IN THIS SET OF FORECASTS. THE FIRST IS
THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS FOR MONDAY. ONCE THE INVERSION
BEGINS TO MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING...STRONG WIND SPEEDS WILL EXIST
IN THE MIXED LAYER TO GET BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE 31.00Z
NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO REACH INTO
THE MID 30 KNOT RANGE AT KRST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT KLSE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FAST MOVING ELEVATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF. NOT EXPECTING THESE TO LAST VERY LONG BUT FEEL THE
WINDS ARE MORE IMPORTANT FOR TIMING...SO WILL SHOW A LONGER WINDOW
OF A SHOWER CHANCE THAN WILL LIKELY OCCUR. A SECOND CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM...WILL COME AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE CAPE IS ONLY
ABOUT 200 J/KG FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AND CONFIDENCE ON THIS ACTUALLY
PRODUCING THUNDER IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. ONCE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT AND REMAIN GUSTY. GOOD
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON POSES SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER.
DEWPOINTS ALSO SHOULD MIX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHICH SAW THAT HAPPEN YESTERDAY.
FUELS ALSO WERE ABLE TO DRY OUT SOME FROM YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY DROP TO A MINIMUM OF 35
PERCENT...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS.
ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COMING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT DRY AIR EXISTS BELOW THE CLOUD
BASES...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL.
THUS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS...SO IF A FIRE WOULD GET
STARTED...THE WIND COULD HELP IT SPREAD A LITTLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TREMPEALEAU...JACKSON AND CLARK
COUNTIES. BOTH THE BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO
THE SNOWMELT THAT HAS OCCURRED YESTERDAY THROUGH NOW. CONTINUED
RAPID SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FROM TEMPERATURES PEAKING UP
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL ALLOW THE RIVERS TO CONTINUE RISING.
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED SOMETIME
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ON THE BLACK SINCE THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER BASIN
MAY BE EXHAUSTED OF SNOWMELT. SHOULD BE A CLOSE CALL ON THE
TREMPEALEAU AT DODGE...THOUGH.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...CONCERN IS GROWING OF A
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD
CLOSELY. LUCKILY THERE ISNT GOING TO BE ANY SNOWMELT OVER THAT
AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ029-033-034.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
949 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2014
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE SUMMIT THIS EVENING.
NOT SURE HOW LONG THIS WILL LAST...AS LIGHT EAST FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIKELY SCOUR OUT THE FOG...BUT THAT REMAINS TO
BE SEEN. THE HRRR MODEL DOES SHOW LOW CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY FOG
DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
MORE FOG LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2014
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN A EXITING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TROUGH
APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN. A SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND SOUTHERN WY. OVERRUNNING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WERE OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN CO MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE WAS
SOME COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WEAK
TSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND ROCKIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A CHEYENNE
TO ALLIANCE LINE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT AS THE CONVEYOR OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. AN UPPER LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER ID OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS MT AND WY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TRANSITION FROM STRATIFORM TO
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...THEN THE REVERSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW/MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZE. SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BREEZY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE 30S AND 40S AND 20S AND 30S ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY WITH RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND MINIMAL LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE.
FRIDAY...SURFACE LEE TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITH ZONAL...WEST
TO EAST...FLOW ALOFT. CONTINUED DRY WITH PAUCITY...LIMITED
AMOUNT...OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
SATURDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES...AND WITH
ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECTING ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WITH TIME OF YEAR DIURNAL HEATING CONSIDERATIONS...PROGGED
INSTABILITY AND A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ADDING TO THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE LIFT.
MONDAY...WITH LESS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECTING LESS AREAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH LESS LIFT FROM NO APPARENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT...THOUGH AS TAUGHT IN METEOROLOGY 101 IN THE
ROCKIES...BEWARE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AS EVEN AN INNOCUOUS LOOKING
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR PERTURBATION CAN TRIGGER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE TO 700 MB
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...AND PROGGED GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE...AS WELL AS NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE PINE RIDGE FROM
LUSK TO ALLIANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MAINLY IFR TO MVFR WITHIN THE
SNOW SHOWERS. WHERE SNOW DOES NOT FALL...COULD ALSO SEE SOME
FOG TONIGHT WHICH COULD BE DENSE LOCALLY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WENDESDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO COOL AND MOIST
CONDITIONS AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
518 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2014
...Dense Fog Advisory through 9am CDT for SE Alabama and Florida
Panhandle...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Dense fog has gradually become more widespread this morning over
the Panhandle and SE Alabama. Latest HRRR suggests the fog will
continue to slowly spread north and east, persisting through mid-
morning. With 1/4 mile visibilities becoming more common, have
issued Dense Fog Advisory through 14z.
&&
.Prev Discussion [357 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
The large scale pattern commences amplified with positively
tilted trough over Wrn 1/3rd and ridge over Ern 2/3rd of Conus
into the Wrn Atlc with axis down Ern seaboard. At surface...low
over KS with cold front Swd into TX. Strong high in Atlc east of
FL/GA with ridging back across Nrn Gulf region. Locally this
translates to onshore flow sfc-to H7 with WNW flow aloft. Despite
onshore flow...area PWATs only about 0.5-0.6 inches. However with
dew points ranging from mid 50s AL/GA to low 60s coast...expect
mild mins (matching dew points by sunrise). Areas of fog will
develop...portions of which may be dense.
During the rest of the period...Wrn trough will strengthen and
become negatively tilted as it moves Ewd in to the Plains on Thurs.
Assocd low lifts Newd into Great Lakes thru Fri with trough axis
into Wrn Gulf region. Vigorous shortwave to move thru Lwr MS Valley
with dynamics likely to remain to our north. All this pushes Ern
ridge progressively into the Wrn Atlc. At surface...beneath upper
divergence low strengthens and lifts Newd dragging cold front E/SE
and pushing high further into Atlc. By sunrise Fri...front to
TN/LWR MS Valley with squall line ahead of it. All this places
local area increasingly in warm sector with increasing clouds each
day and increasing fog chances at night and early morning.
However...with trough/surface low lifting into Great Lakes...front
should weaken and decelerate and not reach local area until Fri
aftn. Some strong storms possible Wrn CWA but severe storms are not
forecasted.
Largely rain free forecast until slight chance of rain Wrn counties
during the predawn hours of Fri then 40-0% NW-SE shwrs/tstms
gradient on Fri. Warm onshore flow ahead of trough/front will keep
inland max temps in the low to mid 80s....5 to 8 degrees above
climo. Weak gradient should allow for seabreeze to temper coastal
temps...generally closer to 70 degrees. Mild lows Thurs night in
the mid to upper 50s except around 60 at the coast.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]...
A series of shortwave troughs will impact the Tri-State region
throughout the extended range forecast. Our best chance for
stronger storms will be early next week with when a shortwave is
forecast to dig deeper into the Southeast, with the surface low
forecast to skirt the northern Gulf coast. Regardless of the
evolution of severe weather, expect two rounds of showers through
the period. The first will be Friday evening through Saturday,
with the second round Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will
remain near average on both sides of the clock Friday through
Tuesday.
.Marine...
Winds and seas will likely remain below headline levels through
the weekend. Early next week a strong frontal system will yield at
least cautionary conditions across our Gulf waters.
.Fire Weather...
Low-level moisture will be on the gradual increase today with light
onshore flow (especially over the western half of the area). This
modest increase in moisture should keep humidity values above
critical levels, with no Red Flag headlines needed.
.Hydrology...
The Apalachicola at Blountstown is currently at 16.2 feet and will
remain in minor flood stage until to night. The Choctawhatchee
River at Caryville is currently at 12.4 feet and will remain in
minor flood stage until this afternoon. The Choctawhatchee at
Bruce is forecast to reach minor flood stage this evening.
Elsewhere...several other rivers in the CWA remain in action stage.
The next chance for rain is on Friday.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 85 54 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 10 20
Panama City 75 61 70 63 76 / 0 10 10 10 30
Dothan 82 57 81 59 81 / 0 0 0 10 40
Albany 84 56 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 10 30
Valdosta 84 56 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 10 20
Cross City 83 54 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 74 60 72 63 76 / 0 0 10 10 20
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
Walton-Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...BLOCK/WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
454 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
LATEST 19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING NE INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND 850 MB FGEN ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW FROM ERN UPPER MI INTO NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW UPR MI ALONG
OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND ASSOC
INSTABILITY/MIXING HAS CAUSED SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN OVER 35
MPH IN THE PAST HR.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW
QUICKLY LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS Q-VECT DIV AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT FM THE SW WITH APPROACH OF SFC
RDG AXIS. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY LIFTING NE
AND/OR DIMINISHING OVER THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO
RANGE FM AROUND 10F OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FM THE NW WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MIXING TO NEAR 875 MB OFF THE NAM
SNDGS WOULD YIELD HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AND EAST TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F SW AND SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES 12Z THU WITH RIDGING OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HEADS INTO THE PLAINS ON THU AND
FORMS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW THU NIGHT OVER IOWA. NAM TAKES THIS LOW
INTO WISCONSIN 00Z SAT AND TO GEORGIAN BAY 12Z SAT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE STARTING ON
THU ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND THIS OVERSPREADS THE CWA BY THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES OUT FIR
NIGHT. NAM SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I290K-I305K AND MOISTURE ON
THU INTO FRI.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE MIXED PCPN TYPE ISSUES TO DEAL WITH
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE WILL BE A FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE NORTH HALF WILL SEE
SNOW AND THIS COULD RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW AND THE SOUTH
HALF COULD SEE UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AND 0.20 INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. FOR THIS REASON...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM
WATCH FROM 00Z FRI TO 06Z SAT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS SUPPORTS A MIX
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA AND USED THE GFS MODEL TO FIGURE
THIS. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DELAYED POPS A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH INITIAL DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO BE OVERCOME.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE EARLY SPRING SNOWSTORM WILL BE WINDING DOWN
STARTING THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE 500 MB TROUGH
EAST OF THE AREA 12Z SAT. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES 12Z
SAT THAT HEADS INTO THE PLAINS 12Z SUN AND INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
12Z MON. THIS TROUGH HEADS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. WILL
HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY MOSTLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
WHERE CONDITIONS AREN`T VFR...THEY WILL BECOME VFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRES WELL NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO MOVE NE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
AND DRY AIR MASS DOMINATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
THE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT NE OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES OR GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN DIMINISH BLO GALES LATER
TONIGHT AS LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES
BUILDIN OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WED
INTO THU. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR OK THURSDAY MORNING WILL PUSH
NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF LAKE HURON AND INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NE-N GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
LATEST 19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING NE INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND 850 MB FGEN ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW FROM ERN UPPER MI INTO NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW UPR MI ALONG
OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND ASSOC
INSTABILITY/MIXING HAS CAUSED SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN OVER 35
MPH IN THE PAST HR.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW
QUICKLY LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS Q-VECT DIV AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT FM THE SW WITH APPROACH OF SFC
RDG AXIS. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY LIFTING NE
AND/OR DIMINISHING OVER THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO
RANGE FM AROUND 10F OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FM THE NW WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MIXING TO NEAR 875 MB OFF THE NAM
SNDGS WOULD YIELD HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AND EAST TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F SW AND SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING CHANCE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE ALONG WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD. DURING THIS TIME...A WEAKENED
SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE ROCKIES MAKING WAY FOR LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH
STRONGER SURFACE LOW FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. OVERALL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET OTHER THAN A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA BY 06Z FRIDAY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING MSLP ALONG
WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EC/GFS/GEM. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT
INITIALLY LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE U.P. WHICH
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA PUSHING INTO THE CWA. THIS CAN EASILY BE
SEEN BY PLOTTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RH ALONG WITH PRESSURE ON THE
300K ISOSURFACE. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS SHOWN BY THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE 300K ISOSURFACE TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL AHEAD OF
THE LOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...HOWEVER...IN AN AREA STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY
MENOMINEE TO ESCANABA OVER TO NEWBERRY WILL SEE THE SNOW MIX WITH OR
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARMER AIR PUSHES IN JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER PENINSULA BY 12Z FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO BE
STAGGERED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO BE NEAR
SOUTHERN WI AROUND THIS TIME.
THE STRONGEST SYSTEM FORCING WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. ALONG WITH STRONGER FGEN FORCING AT 700MB AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY ALLOWING HEAVY WET SNOW TO DEVELOP...WHILE THE EASTERN U.P.
WILL STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING DUE TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...THANKS TO CONTINUED WAA...HELPING TO KEEP A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THOSE AREAS. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
STEEP THROUGH THE DGZ WITH EPV VALUES AROUND 0 OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW...POSSIBLY LEADING TO THUNDER...BUT DEFINITELY HELPING WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. AGAIN THESE ARE FINER DETAILS WHICH WILL HAVE
TO BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BETWEEN 18Z
FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
LOW BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY STACKED ALLOWING THE LOW TO OCCLUDE. AT
THE SAME TIME WARM AIR ASCENDS AND WRAPS AROUND THE LOW ALLOWING FOR
A TROWAL TYPE SETUP OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE U.P. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS AS IF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WOULD BE UNDER
THE TROWAL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 850MB LOW...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
SNOWFALL RATES...WHILE THE EASTERN U.P. MAY END UP SEEING A BIT OF A
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT TRIES
TO SLIP INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SO THE FINAL LOCATIONS OF
THESE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE MOST MODELS HAVE A
SIMILAR SNOW TRACK...THEY EACH VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE DETAILS WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS EVENT HIGHLIGHTING THE HEAVY
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P. WHILE ALSO
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO SATURDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. INITIALLY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE U.P. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...HOWEVER...AS THE
LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND BRINGING AND END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE LOW AS MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED...A CONSENSUS
APPROACH IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS AT THIS TIME AND
JUST BE AWARE THAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
WHERE CONDITIONS AREN`T VFR...THEY WILL BECOME VFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRES WELL NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO MOVE NE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
AND DRY AIR MASS DOMINATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
THE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT NE OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES OR GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN DIMINISH BLO GALES LATER
TONIGHT AS LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES
BUILDIN OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WED
INTO THU. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR OK THURSDAY MORNING WILL PUSH
NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF LAKE HURON AND INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NE-N GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ244-245-
250-264>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1122 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES INITIALLY WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON DUE TO LOW LVL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION. MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVELENT BY MORNING...WITH SOME IFR
POSSIBLE ACRS NE OK AND NW AR. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFT 15Z WED MORNING MOST LIKELY...AND BEST CHCS WILL BE OVER
SE OK INTO NW AR. AFTERNOON STORMS OUT WEST WILL AT LEAST BE IN
THE VCNTY OF THE TERMINALS AFT 00Z WED EVENING. I ALSO AM EXPTG
RISING OF CIGS INTO THE VFR RANGE AT MOST SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST UPDATES WILL FOCUS ON VERY NEAR
TERM TRENDS IN TEMP AND CLOUD COVER. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WELL
DEFINED WARM FRONT ESPECIALLY EVIDENT IN DEW POINT FIELD...ROUGHLY
FROM SHAWNEE TO TAHLEQUAH AND INTO NW CORNER OF ARKANSAS. VERY
MILD SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING IN UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WHILE SOME AREAS NORTH HAVE FALLEN INTO MID 40S.
EXPECT BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT REACHING NEAR
OK/KS BORDER BY MORNING...THUS TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE LATER TONIGHT
IN THE NORTH AFTER BOTTOMING OUT IN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE
REMAINING VERY MILD TO THE SOUTH.
TWO AREAS OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL BE
NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SE OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT AS HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNAL OF EXPANDING SEVERE CONVECTION OVER NW TEXAS NORTH AND EAST
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE REDUCED POPS IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH 06Z WITH HIGHER CHANCE NEAR OK/KS BORDER AFTER 06Z.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED OVER THE REGION. ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NE OK...MVFR CIGS ARE SCATTERING
OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL GOING INTO
THE EVENING. LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE DVLPMT OF
MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CIGS AT SOME PLACES AFT 06Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE WED AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TSRA COULD AFFECT THE NE OK
SITES THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
OUR AREA.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ARCS FROM SWRN MO INTO SRN OK...WITH NE OK
REMAINING COOL (50S) AND CLOUDY ON THE N SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA AS THE WARM FRONT WILL
ONLY SLOWLY LIFT N THROUGH TONIGHT. PLAN ON SHOWING A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP FOR NE OK...WITH TEMPS LIKELY RISING LATER TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW-END POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO KS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OUR FORECAST
AREA REMAINING IN THE WARM/MOIST (MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS) SECTOR.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHLY CONDITIONAL THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS MODERATE CAP WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS
LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE
TRIPLE-POINT NEAR THE SCNTRL KS/NRN OK BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY DEVELOP INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WITH
STORMS TRACKING E/NE ACROSS ERN OK/NWRN AR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOK POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS EJECTS E INTO THE
PLAINS. DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE E THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO ERN
OK WHERE A MOIST/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL EXIST. THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE DRYLINE AROUND 18-21Z...WITH THE
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WRN AR DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE SWEEPS E. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE FORECAST WIND FIELDS...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE IMPACTS THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 51 79 65 78 / 30 30 60 40
FSM 62 77 65 77 / 20 40 60 80
MLC 67 78 66 78 / 20 40 60 60
BVO 49 80 62 76 / 40 30 60 40
FYV 60 75 63 74 / 30 40 60 80
BYV 58 75 61 76 / 30 40 60 80
MKO 59 78 64 78 / 20 40 60 60
MIO 46 77 63 76 / 40 30 60 60
F10 59 78 65 79 / 20 40 60 50
HHW 68 78 66 78 / 20 40 50 60
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
DRYLINE FAIRLY STATIONARY JUST WEST OF LUBBOCK ATTM WITH AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS TO THE EAST OF IT. SOME CONCERN
THAT MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING IT WELL BY MOVING IT TOO QUICKLY EWD
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE WINDS AOB 12KTS REGARDLESS...BUT POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO WORK NWD TOWARD BOTH TERMINALS IF
THIS EWD MOVEMENT DOES NOT OCCUR. THAT SOLUTION REMAINS A LONG
SHOT ATTM AND WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS
TO BREEZY AND GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING BY 18Z AS THE DRYLINE WILL
INDEED MOVE QUICKLY EWD DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
AVIATION...
DRYLINE MADE IT JUST TO THE WEST OF KLBB AND IS ALREADY SHOWING
SIGNS OF PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST. WILL SEE A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF
GUSTY S/SSE WINDS BEFORE RELAXING TO AROUND 11KTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW EARLIER
TOMORROW...LIKELY BY 18Z AND BE NEAR 20G30KTS THROUGH THE AFTN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE 3 PM WEST TEXAS MESONET OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE DRYLINE
FIRMING UP ACROSS BAILEY...HOCKLEY AND LYNN COUNTIES...HEADING
EAST. MEANWHILE A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCED FROM THE NRN PERMIAN
BASIN...SEWD TO NEAR SWEETWATER...THEN NEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE IT WAS RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT. UNDERNEATH A
SWATH OF CIRRUS...SOME CU DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED ON SAT IMAGERY NEAR
SWEETWATER...WHERE INSTABILITY WAS BUILDING AS MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
FLOW NWWD INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. SHORT-RANGE PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ MAY REACH STONEWALL COUNTY BY
22-23 UTC. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK...WE DO EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING AS A SMALL
SPEED-MAX IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACHES FROM THE W-SW. WHILE
SB-CAPES APPROACHING 2K J/KG AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KTS
OR SO SHOULD RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WE THINK THAT GIVEN THAT
EXPECTED ISOLATED STORM INITIATION MAY BE MOST FAVORED IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF STONEWALL AND PERHAPS KING COUNTIES...THE THREAT OF SVR
WX WILL BE MAINLY JUST TO OUR EAST AS THE STORMS MOVE NEWD.
HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE ANY T-STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY INTENSITY PRETTY
QUICKLY. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55-60 MPH
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE SMALL STORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY LATE
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. TONIGHT...THE RAP AND THE
HRRR ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODELS IN DEPICTING THE DRYLINE
RETREATING BACK INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL SPLNS...WHICH COULD BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG OR THIN LOW STRATUS TO THE AREA...WHILE THE
NAM AND GFS ARE MUCH LESS BULLISH ON THIS IDEA. FOR NOW...WE/VE
HINTED AT A FARTHER NWWD MOISTURE RETURN BUT HAVE NOT BOUGHT INTO IT
COMPLETELY...AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THE TRENDS. IT
WILL BE MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ALSO
SOME LOW 60S SOUTHEAST.
NO MATTER HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE MOISTURE GETS TONIGHT...IT WILL
BE READILY SCOURED OUT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE FACE OF INCREASING STRONG
AND DEEP SW FLOW. THE DRYLINE MAY STILL HUG OUR ERN BORDER AROUND
NOON-TIME...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED OFF WELL EAST BY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 25 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND THIS
SHOULD KICK UP SOME BLOWING DUST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 70S NW TO NEAR 90 SE.
LONG TERM...
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED
FROM A MODERATELY UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME TO A MORE STABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF LONGWAVE RIDGING TO OUR WEST.
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FOCUSED ON TWO PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS LATER
THIS WEEK IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...ONE FOR THURSDAY AND THE OTHER BY
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FORMER PROMISES TO SWING A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON THURSDAY COMPLETE
WITH BORDERLINE ADVISORY WINDS...BUT THE STRONGEST 850-700MB WINDS
ARE FORTUNATELY SHOWN TO TRANSLATE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION
BEFORE PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF EVEN COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING A WEAK
POLAR FRONT BY SUNSET.
AFTER A FLEETING S/W RIDGE ON FRIDAY...THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH SHOWS
SOME PROMISE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER BY SATURDAY AS IT SPURS
WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION COMPLETE WITH A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH LL DEWPOINTS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
INSPIRING GIVEN THE MODIFIED FETCH OF MOISTURE FOLLOWING THU
NIGHT/S FRONT...AN AXIS OF ISENTROPIC MOISTENING AND LIFT FROM
300-310K COULD SET UP FAVORABLY FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS SETUP
LOOKS TO FAVOR A LOW CAPE AND MODERATE/STRONG SHEAR SCENARIO...SO
WE/LL BE MONITORING THIS IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS THESE DECEPTIVELY
LOW CAPE AIR MASSES CAN GARNER ROTATING STORMS WITH SUCH FAVORABLE
SHEAR AND LIFT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALIVE ALL AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BEFORE SCALING THESE BACK FROM WEST-TO-EAST ON
SUNDAY. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO BE REINFORCED
THEREAFTER AS WE TRANSITION INTO NWLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 27. THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT...WITH POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SW TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH PLAINS...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERY
ELSEWHERE.
THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH VERY
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING EASTWARD.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE CWA AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY FROM 11
AM TO 10 PM.
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IN THE MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL WILDFIRE
THREAT NOW APPEARS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN EARLIER INDICATED GIVEN
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WHICH RARELY COINCIDE WITH ACTIVE WILDFIRE
DAYS. NONETHELESS...MIN RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT COMBINED WITH
20-FT WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WARRANT KEEPING THE FIRE WX WATCH INTACT
AREA WIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 44 75 38 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 43 80 41 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 45 81 43 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 44 80 43 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 49 82 46 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 47 79 47 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 48 81 46 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 53 88 48 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 55 86 49 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 64 90 50 80 45 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1046 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...AND THEN
SINK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...AND LIGHT RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE
NJ AND INTO NYC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME LOCALLY MODERATE
RAIN APPEARS TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HRRR MODEL. LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF QPF IS LIKELY...WITH
RAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO NYC AND LONG ISLAND. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING LONG ISLAND BY MID AFTERNOON.
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT W-NW...GUSTING
BRIEFLY TO 20-25 MPH FROM NYC WEST. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 60S FROM NYC WEST...AND 55-60 FOR LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SE FROM ONTARIO AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE OH VALLEY BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS. LOW TEMPS ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...ATTM SIDED WITH THE
COLDER NAM MOS GUIDANCE...WITH LOWS 40-45 IN NYC...UPPER 30S
JUST OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...AND 30-35 ELSEWHERE.
IF CLOUD COVER WINS OUT THEN WARMER GFS MOS LOWS 35-40 WOULD
PREVAIL WELL INLAND.
SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST ON THU AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR A LITTLE COOLER THOSE OF
TODAY...MOSTLY 55-60.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW AND MID-LEVEL PVA WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS WILL PROBABLY
BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RIDGING ALOFT AND RELATIVELY HIGHER SURFACE
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. FEEL THAT LIGHT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR
ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WESTERNMOST ZONES WOULD THEN
HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING. CLOUD COVER AND AN EAST
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE THURS NIGHT...AND
HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S DURING FRIDAY.
RAINFALL LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS A SECONDARY
LOW/TRIPLE POINT FORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. THE LOW CENTER THEN PASSES THROUGH AND EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
AT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE COULD RESULT IN
AN ISOLATED TSTM MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MOST OF THE AREA COULD
BE DRY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...HOWEVER STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO START THE DAY FOR THE EASTERNMOST ZONES. DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS.
THE DRY WEATHER LASTS AT LEAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN ONCE
AGAIN...A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BEFORE
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG IT AND PASSES NEARBY OR THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT. CAPPED POPS AT 50% FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT TUESDAY COULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. BUT FOR TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE LEFT IN A CHANCE OF RAINFALL. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONT SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO RANGE FOR
TIMING OF FROPA IS RATHER LARGE...AROUND 16Z WEST TO 00Z EAST.
LATEST RADAR INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS WITH KEWR...KJFK...AND KISP...MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LIGHT RAIN. WITH UNCERTAINTY USED A TEMPO GROUP FOR BEST TIMING OF
LIGHT RAIN. NO IMPACTS TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LIGHT AND WIND WILL BE LIGHT...LESS
THAN 10KT...AND DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE...HOWEVER...GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY. LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE LATE...AFT
20Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU-FRI NIGHT. A CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ON MOST OF THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
BY SAT MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE...AND COULD TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE BELOW
5 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A TOTAL OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1017 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...AND THEN
SINK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...AND LIGHT RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE
NJ AND INTO NYC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME LOCALLY MODERATE
RAIN APPEARS TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HRRR MODEL. LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF QPF IS LIKELY...WITH
RAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO NYC AND LONG ISLAND. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING LONG ISLAND BY MID AFTERNOON.
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT W-NW...GUSTING
BRIEFLY TO 20-25 MPH FROM NYC WEST. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 60S FROM NYC WEST...AND 55-60 FOR LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SE FROM ONTARIO AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE OH VALLEY BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS. LOW TEMPS ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...ATTM SIDED WITH THE
COLDER NAM MOS GUIDANCE...WITH LOWS 40-45 IN NYC...UPPER 30S
JUST OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...AND 30-35 ELSEWHERE.
IF CLOUD COVER WINS OUT THEN WARMER GFS MOS LOWS 35-40 WOULD
PREVAIL WELL INLAND.
SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST ON THU AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO OR A LITTLE COOLER THOSE OF
TODAY...MOSTLY 55-60.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW AND MID-LEVEL PVA WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THIS WILL PROBABLY
BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RIDGING ALOFT AND RELATIVELY HIGHER SURFACE
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. FEEL THAT LIGHT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY FOR
ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WESTERNMOST ZONES WOULD THEN
HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY
WITH THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING. CLOUD COVER AND AN EAST
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE THURS NIGHT...AND
HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S DURING FRIDAY.
RAINFALL LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS A SECONDARY
LOW/TRIPLE POINT FORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT/STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. THE LOW CENTER THEN PASSES THROUGH AND EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
AT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE COULD RESULT IN
AN ISOLATED TSTM MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MOST OF THE AREA COULD
BE DRY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...HOWEVER STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO START THE DAY FOR THE EASTERNMOST ZONES. DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS.
THE DRY WEATHER LASTS AT LEAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN ONCE
AGAIN...A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BEFORE
LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG IT AND PASSES NEARBY OR THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT. CAPPED POPS AT 50% FOR
NOW...BUT THIS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT TUESDAY COULD BE COMPLETELY DRY. BUT FOR TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE LEFT IN A CHANCE OF RAINFALL. HIGHS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONT SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO RANGE FOR
TIMING OF FROPA IS RATHER LARGE...AROUND 16Z WEST TO 00Z EAST.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING NYC TERMS/KISP WILL GET BRUSHED BY
LIGHT RAIN SO MAINTAINED IT IN THE 12Z TAFS. REMOVED FROM KSWF AND
KEPT VCSH AT KBDR AS IT MAY GET CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. KGON SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.
WIND DIRECTIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING. A LIGHT ELY
FLOW CURRENTLY PREVAILS WHERE THERE IS WIND...BUT EXPECT THEM TO
BECOME SWLY AS THE FRONT NEARS THIS MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTS POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND FROPA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
DIRECTIONS SHIFTING ACROSS THE 310 MAG BOUNDARY TODAY MODERATE AT
BEST. SEABREEZE POSSIBLE LATE...AFT 20Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
DIRECTIONS SHIFTING ACROSS THE 310 MAG BOUNDARY TODAY MODERATE AT
BEST.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
DIRECTIONS SHIFTING ACROSS THE 310 MAG BOUNDARY TODAY MODERATE AT
BEST.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION UNTIL
FROPA...TIMING BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU-FRI NIGHT. A CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ON MOST OF THE WATERS LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
BY SAT MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE...AND COULD TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE BELOW
5 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A TOTAL OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...
MARINE...JC/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
643 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2014
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Occasionally dense fog will continue to
impact KTLH, KDHN, and KECP through mid-morning. Expect to see
conditions occasionally drop to airport minimums. Thereafter, VFR
conditions expected through the day, with possible visibility
restrictions once again late tonight.
&&
.Prev Discussion [518 AM EDT]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Dense fog has gradually become more widespread this morning over
the Panhandle and SE Alabama. Latest HRRR suggests the fog will
continue to slowly spread north and east, persisting through mid-
morning. With 1/4 mile visibilities becoming more common, have
issued Dense Fog Advisory through 14z.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
The large scale pattern commences amplified with positively
tilted trough over Wrn 1/3rd and ridge over Ern 2/3rd of Conus
into the Wrn Atlc with axis down Ern seaboard. At surface...low
over KS with cold front Swd into TX. Strong high in Atlc east of
FL/GA with ridging back across Nrn Gulf region. Locally this
translates to onshore flow sfc-to H7 with WNW flow aloft. Despite
onshore flow...area PWATs only about 0.5-0.6 inches. However with
dew points ranging from mid 50s AL/GA to low 60s coast...expect
mild mins (matching dew points by sunrise). Areas of fog will
develop...portions of which may be dense.
During the rest of the period...Wrn trough will strengthen and
become negatively tilted as it moves Ewd in to the Plains on Thurs.
Assocd low lifts Newd into Great Lakes thru Fri with trough axis
into Wrn Gulf region. Vigorous shortwave to move thru Lwr MS Valley
with dynamics likely to remain to our north. All this pushes Ern
ridge progressively into the Wrn Atlc. At surface...beneath upper
divergence low strengthens and lifts Newd dragging cold front E/SE
and pushing high further into Atlc. By sunrise Fri...front to
TN/LWR MS Valley with squall line ahead of it. All this places
local area increasingly in warm sector with increasing clouds each
day and increasing fog chances at night and early morning.
However...with trough/surface low lifting into Great Lakes...front
should weaken and decelerate and not reach local area until Fri
aftn. Some strong storms possible Wrn CWA but severe storms are not
forecasted.
Largely rain free forecast until slight chance of rain Wrn counties
during the predawn hours of Fri then 40-0% NW-SE shwrs/tstms
gradient on Fri. Warm onshore flow ahead of trough/front will keep
inland max temps in the low to mid 80s....5 to 8 degrees above
climo. Weak gradient should allow for seabreeze to temper coastal
temps...generally closer to 70 degrees. Mild lows Thurs night in
the mid to upper 50s except around 60 at the coast.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]...
A series of shortwave troughs will impact the Tri-State region
throughout the extended range forecast. Our best chance for
stronger storms will be early next week with when a shortwave is
forecast to dig deeper into the Southeast, with the surface low
forecast to skirt the northern Gulf coast. Regardless of the
evolution of severe weather, expect two rounds of showers through
the period. The first will be Friday evening through Saturday,
with the second round Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will
remain near average on both sides of the clock Friday through
Tuesday.
.Marine...
Winds and seas will likely remain below headline levels through
the weekend. Early next week a strong frontal system will yield at
least cautionary conditions across our Gulf waters.
.Fire Weather...
Low-level moisture will be on the gradual increase today with light
onshore flow (especially over the western half of the area). This
modest increase in moisture should keep humidity values above
critical levels, with no Red Flag headlines needed.
.Hydrology...
The Apalachicola at Blountstown is currently at 16.2 feet and will
remain in minor flood stage until to night. The Choctawhatchee
River at Caryville is currently at 12.4 feet and will remain in
minor flood stage until this afternoon. The Choctawhatchee at
Bruce is forecast to reach minor flood stage this evening.
Elsewhere...several other rivers in the CWA remain in action stage.
The next chance for rain is on Friday.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 85 54 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 10 20
Panama City 75 61 70 63 76 / 0 10 10 10 30
Dothan 82 57 81 59 81 / 0 0 0 10 40
Albany 84 56 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 10 30
Valdosta 84 56 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 10 20
Cross City 83 54 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 74 60 72 63 76 / 0 0 10 10 20
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
Walton-Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...BLOCK/WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
702 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT BENIGN AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. THIS HIGH WILL
QUICKLY BE PUSHED NORTHEAST AS A DEVELOPING CYCLONE USHERS WARM AND
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY. CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM.
FOR TONIGHT...POPS WERE CUT DOWN DUE TO THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN
SOMEWHAT...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THE EC/GEM REMAIN DRY THROUGH 00Z AND THE GFS/NAM HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THEIR ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE EC AND GEM REALLY SOLUTIONS MAKE ME
QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL WILL BE SEEN
TONIGHT...BUT THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT. SO...DIALED THE POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
CATEGORIES THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM WOULD
START OUT AS RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED UP A
HAIR ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SO FREEZING RAIN IS LESS OF A
CONCERN/BUT STILL A POSSIBILITY/ IN THIS AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL IN THE FA OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
ISSUES ABOUND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AS A STORM SYSTEM
IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING HEADS OUR WAY. THE
00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
POSITION...BUT ITS THE ONSET AND PRECIPITATION TYPE THAT PLAYS
HAVOC WITH THE FORECAST THURSDAY AS WELL AS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST THREE RUNS WHILE THE EC HAS DROPPED SOUTHWEST WITH
THE UPPER LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE 02.00Z RUN
RESEMBLING THE FORECAST FROM 01.00Z. THE GFS HAS A WELL DEFINED
DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WEST
CENTRAL MN COUNTIES AS DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING COUPLED JET ALOFT. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED
WITH STRONG UPGLIDE AND ADIABATIC OMEGA WITH MIXING RATIOS IN THE
3 TO 4 G/KG RANGE. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SPREADS IN FROM SD WITH
NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE. THIS WHOLE PACKAGE SPREADS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HENCE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
ON A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF OUR CWA. AT THIS
POINT A WIDE SWATH OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS PROJECTED FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MN...THE TWIN CITIES AND
NORTHERN AREAS OF WI. THIS MAY BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS POINTING AT 12 TO 16 INCHES.
THE LOWEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY ARE 4 TO 6
INCHES FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE. THIS IS AN AREA OF CONCERN
FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE CERTAINLY DIFFERENCES IN THE WRF SOLUTIONS THAT
WOULD ARGUE FOR MORE SNOW EARLY ON THURSDAY WHILE SEVERAL
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS POINT TO LITTLE PRECIPITATION AT ALL FOR
MUCH FOR THURSDAY. THIS IS AN ISSUE LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO DEAL
WITH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A THREAT FOR THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS
SE MN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH. THE FIRST WAS TO ADD
THE REST OF OUR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. THE SECOND WAS TO
EXTEND THE WATCH FOR EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE LASTING A LITTLE LONGER.
LITTLE TIME TO PONDER THE LONGER TERM. THERE WILL BE SOME
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING IN DEALING WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION TONIGHT. TODAY WILL BE VFR ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN BEING THE WIND DIRECTION AND TIMING AS THEY
TURN EASTERLY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING STORM. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF SUB 5K FT STRATUS DECK AND PRECIPITATION IS LOW DUE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD. TENDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE RAP AS IT SPLIT
THE EC AND GFS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS MEANT DELAYING THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPS A
HEALTHY SUPPLY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE OVERCOME
EVENTUALLY OF COURSE...BUT AT THIS TIME I AM THINKING A LITTLE
SLOWER.
KMSP...WENT WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST THIS PERIOD GIVEN
REASONS STATED ABOVE. AGAIN FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. AS MORE HI-RES MODELS REACH THIS
TIME FRAME...FORECAST SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE. FZRA/SN POSSIBLE. WINDS NE AT
15G20KT.
THU NIGHT. IFR AND SN EXPECTED WITH LIFR +SN LIKELY. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW BEGINNING AFTER 00Z. WINDS NE TO NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...IFR/SN WITH LIFR/+SN POSSIBLE THROUGH 15/18Z. DIMINISHING TO
MVFR BY 21Z. WINDS NNW 20G30KT. SAT...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.
WINDS S AT 10KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-049>053-058>063-066>070-076>078-084-
085-093.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-073>075-082-
083-091-092.
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1153 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
BOTH TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID WEST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH OVER THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12 NOON UPDATE... A COUPLE OF MORE MINOR CHGS WERE MADE
ATTM...MAINLY TO SPEED UP THE EXIT OF THE THICKER CLDS BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS...AND ALSO TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SPRINKLES
OVER NE PA.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS JUNCTURE.
930 AM UPDATE... ONCE AGN...THE FCST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...SO
JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS ARE REQUIRED ATTM.
A BAND OF -RA/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE SRN HALF OF PA
LATE THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH OVERRUNNING DYNAMICS JUST N OF A SFC
BNDRY ACRS DELMARVA...AND ALSO A RGN OF UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH OF THIS PCPN WILL STAY S OF OUR FA
THROUGH EARLY AFTN...SO WE`LL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A MENTION OF
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR FAR SRN ZNS.
AS THE AFTN WEARS ON...WE THINK THE PRESENT CLOUD COVER WILL THIN
OUT...SPCLY OVER CNY...SO OUR PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST IN THIS
TIME FRAME STILL LOOKS GOOD.
12Z SNDGS...ALG WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WEAK LOW-LVL CAA
TDY...BASICALLY SUPPORT OUR HIGH TEMP FCST...RANGING FROM THE 40S
ACRS UPSTATE NY...TO THE MID AND UPR 50S FOR MOST OF NE PA. WE
BLENDED THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC-13 TEMP DATA INTO THE GRIDS...JUST
TO BETTER DEFINE THE N TO S THERMAL GRADIENT THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN THE VCNTY KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MINS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS
OCCURS THE WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SRN PA/NRN MD WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HOLDING THE LIGHT RAIN OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CHC POPS OVER NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NRN CWA AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, BOUNDARY CONTINUES MAKING SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD
ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE GFS IS
MUCH HEAVIER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF BUT APPEARS TO BE HINDERED WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND NOT FOLLOWED. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH CHC POPS OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. ON FRIDAY, H85 WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA
RESULTING IN GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA
AND DRAG AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM TUE UPDATE... ITS NOT TOO OFTEN WE GET TO SAY THIS
BUT...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME AS BOTH SOLUTIONS COMPLIMENT EACH OTHER ANOTHER WELL ON
LARGE SCALE WEATHER FEATURES AND PRECIP TIMING. THAT SAID...AREA
WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR STEADY PRECIP RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE AS
SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM SENDS OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NGT. FOR NOW...BEST POPS SET DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AS MAIN H85 LOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE TO NO LAKE RESPONSE ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO FINALLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SEND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION /I.E. H85 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -8C BY 12Z
SUN/ TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME WEAK LAKE RESPONSE ACROSS THE UPPER
SUSQUEHANNA AND WESTERN MOHAWK VLYS. LINGERING LAKE
CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO QUICKLY FALL APART ON SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT DEEP SOUTH SFC LOW SHIFTS OVER THE
AREA. AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS LIFTING
NORTHWARD...EXPECT WELL PRONOUNCED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW...PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES WITH
AHEAD OF MAIN H85 LOW. PRECIP TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA AS MAIN DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO HOVER BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...AND LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THE FROPA THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE CONFINED TO KSYR AND
KRME... THUS DECIDED TO KEEP A TEMPO FOR 2500 FT ATTM. WINDS BEHIND
THE FROPA WILL BE NORTHERLY.
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS JUST TO KAVP. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WED/THU...VFR.
FRI/SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN/LWR CIGS.
SUN...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
934 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
BOTH TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID WEST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH OVER THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE... ONCE AGN...THE FCST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...SO
JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS ARE REQUIRED ATTM.
A BAND OF -RA/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE SRN HALF OF PA
LATE THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH OVERRUNNING DYNAMICS JUST N OF A SFC
BNDRY ACRS DELMARVA...AND ALSO A RGN OF UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH OF THIS PCPN WILL STAY S OF OUR FA
THROUGH EARLY AFTN...SO WE`LL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A MENTION OF
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR FAR SRN ZNS.
AS THE AFTN WEARS ON...WE THINK THE PRESENT CLOUD COVER WILL THIN
OUT...SPCLY OVER CNY...SO OUR PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST IN THIS
TIME FRAME STILL LOOKS GOOD.
12Z SNDGS...ALG WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WEAK LOW-LVL CAA
TDY...BASICALLY SUPPORT OUR HIGH TEMP FCST...RANGING FROM THE 40S
ACRS UPSTATE NY...TO THE MID AND UPR 50S FOR MOST OF NE PA. WE
BLENDED THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC-13 TEMP DATA INTO THE GRIDS...JUST
TO BETTER DEFINE THE N TO S THERMAL GRADIENT THIS AFTN.
PREV DISC... AT 415 AM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OVER THE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS AND LOWER 40S ON THE HILLTOPS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED
SHOWERS IN THE OHIO VALLEY NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AND SHORT
WAVE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
POCONOS THIS MORNING. INCLUDED HIGHS CHC POPS FOR THIS REGION FROM
DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE MORNING. TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE AROUND
15 DEGREES ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY SO THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND BRING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK CAA WILL OCCUR UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE NRN CWA
AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN THE VCNTY KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MINS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS
OCCURS THE WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SRN PA/NRN MD WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HOLDING THE LIGHT RAIN OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CHC POPS OVER NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NRN CWA AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, BOUNDARY CONTINUES MAKING SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD
ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE GFS IS
MUCH HEAVIER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF BUT APPEARS TO BE HINDERED WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND NOT FOLLOWED. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH CHC POPS OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. ON FRIDAY, H85 WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA
RESULTING IN GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA
AND DRAG AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 PM TUE UPDATE... ITS NOT TOO OFTEN WE GET TO SAY THIS
BUT...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME AS BOTH SOLUTIONS COMPLIMENT EACH OTHER ANOTHER WELL ON
LARGE SCALE WEATHER FEATURES AND PRECIP TIMING. THAT SAID...AREA
WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR STEADY PRECIP RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE AS
SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM SENDS OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NGT. FOR NOW...BEST POPS SET DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AS MAIN H85 LOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE TO NO LAKE RESPONSE ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO FINALLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SEND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION /I.E. H85 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR -8C BY 12Z
SUN/ TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME WEAK LAKE RESPONSE ACROSS THE UPPER
SUSQUEHANNA AND WESTERN MOHAWK VLYS. LINGERING LAKE
CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO QUICKLY FALL APART ON SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT DEEP SOUTH SFC LOW SHIFTS OVER THE
AREA. AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS LIFTING
NORTHWARD...EXPECT WELL PRONOUNCED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MONDAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW...PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES WITH
AHEAD OF MAIN H85 LOW. PRECIP TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA AS MAIN DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO HOVER BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...AND LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THE FROPA THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO BE CONFINED TO KSYR AND
KRME... THUS DECIDED TO KEEP A TEMPO FOR 2500 FT ATTM. WINDS BEHIND
THE FROPA WILL BE NORTHERLY.
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS JUST TO KAVP. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
WED/THU...VFR.
FRI/SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN/LWR CIGS.
SUN...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1041 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA BORDER
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM WEDNESDAY...
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE
30S...AND 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH KGSO AND KMHX NOTED A VERY DRY
COLUMN BASICALLY TO THE TROPOPAUSE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT EAST OF THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS...THOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS APPEARED TO BE THINNING AS THEY MOVED EAST TOWARD THE AREA.
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE...PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ITS MODEL
SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY IN THE MEAN THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER SUBSIDENCE. AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON...A LITTLE BETTER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE
MAY HELP ALLOW FOR MORE OF A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY
OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR WRF LOW-LEVEL WIND FORECAST
SUGGESTS A LIGHT NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KIXA
FROM 23Z TO 02Z. GIVEN THE DRY AIR...EXPECTED AMPLE SUNSHINE...AND
1000-850MB THICKNESSES FROM THE 12Z KGSO OBSERVATION TO WHAT IS
FORECAST LATER TODAY...RAISED MAXES A DEGREE OR TWO MOST
LOCATIONS... CLOSER TO THE MOS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. MANY TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 70F AT JUST AFTER 930 AM SUN-TIME. -DJF
TONIGHT...AS THE FRONT SETTLES ALONG THE NC-VA BORDER...MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WHERE NON-MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR AS THE 00Z/02 NAM SHOWS DEEPER SATURATION
OWING TO WEAK S/W ENERGY CRESTING ATOP THE RIDGE ALOFT. LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. -CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
THU: A COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTH IN BACKDOOR FASHION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
TONIGHT...TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER BY THU
MORNING - 50 TO 100 MILES FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
WHILE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS A COLD ONE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN -
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BENEATH THE CENTER OF THE
1024 HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING - AN EQUALLY STRONG
HIGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. EQUILIBRIUM
BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL MEET RESISTANCE
AS IT TRIES TO DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC...AND AS SUCH...THE FARTHER
SOUTH FRONTAL POSITIONING OF THE NAM...SOUTH OF US HWY 64...IS
CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS ONE
INDICATED BY THE EC AND GFS...SUCH THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER...ROUGHLY ALONG AN ARC FROM KDAN-KETC-
KHAT...AND WHOSE POSITION WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED LESS BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE PROCESSES/EQUILIBRIUM AND MORE BY
MESOSCALE ONES DRIVEN BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS COOL (MID 30S-MID
40S FAHRENHEIT) MID-ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS PER AVHRR-OBSERVED SST
DATA.
THE RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY UP TO A FEW
DEGREES (INTO THE LOWER 80S) SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED FRONTAL
POSITION...BASED UPON THE ANTECEDENT WARMTH THAT RESULTED IN HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S ALREADY ON TUE...WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO THOSE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST NEAR THE VA BORDER (IN THE MID-UPPER 70S).
BOTH THE 00Z/2ND NAM AND EC ALSO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN NC...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AROUND THE TOP OF A 318-319 DM
RIDGE OVER THE FL PENINSULA. MOISTURE IN BOTH MODELS IS MOSTLY OF
THE MID LEVEL VARIETY...SO THE PROSPECTS OF RAINFALL - OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A SPRINKLE - IS LOW...PARTICULARLY SINCE THE PARENT...
ALREADY-LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE SHOULD ONLY FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE RIDGE OVER THE SE.
THU NIGHT: THE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH VA THU
NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF A CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MIGRATE
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. MILD LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED.
FRI AND FRI NIGHT: OVERALL MINIMAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES...THOUGH
NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. CONTINUED WARM FRI...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S
NW PIEDMONT WHERE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ESPECIALLY AFTER
NOON...RANGING TO PERSISTENCE LOWER 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
DESPITE AROUND 500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY FRI...AND SIGNIFICANT INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE SEA BREEZE OWING TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE FLOW...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MID
LEVEL CAP AND ASSOCIATED CINH BETWEEN 100-150 J/KG. AS SUCH...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY CUMULUS TO BREAK THE CAP UNTIL BETTER
DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...BUT STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ...ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
IN FACT...IT IS LIKELY THAT A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EVOLVE FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST
STATES...IN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE
AND PARENT S/W TROUGH/UPPER LOW; AND THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...OR PERHAPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN WITH BOTH TIME AND WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT...OWING TO BOTH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND THE WELL-
TO-OUR-NW PASSAGE OF THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. NONETHELESS...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
CONDITIONAL UPON THUNDER INDEED MATERIALIZING - MORE LIKELY WEST OF
THE TRIANGLE WHERE THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BETTER COINCIDE
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
SAT THROUGH SUN: THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SAT...BUT LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IN WNW POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL
OTHERWISE PREVAIL. STILL WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT
NIGHT. COOLER SUN - IN THE 60S - IN NE FLOW AROUND 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE WHOSE TIMING IS FASTER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS WHAT IT
APPEARED YESTERDAY.
NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL INDEED BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AND BUCKLE NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUN-
MON. THE ASSOCIATED CONFLUENCE ALOFT INDUCED BY THE BUCKLING OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF A DAMMING HIGH
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GOM. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER IN A STRENGTHENING REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP
THE SURFACE HIGH...AND CONSEQUENT RAIN AND CAD...FOR SUN NIGHT-MON.
AFTER PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE IN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MON NIGHT-EARLY
TUE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A L/W TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASE LATE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS AN WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE AREA...STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS FO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK: OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...MIGHT BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERN
STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS
OVERRUNNING PRECIP SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...DJF/CBL
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
849 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS OCCURRING IN AN BAND NEARLY PARALLEL WITH I-70 WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH MID MORNING. MEANWHILE...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE THIS DEPICTED
PRETTY WELL ASIDE FROM BEING A BIT TOO FAR NORTH. SO HAVE TAKEN AN
ADJUSTED HRRR SOLUTION AND TRACKED THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON RECENT TRENDS BUT OVERALL HIGHS
STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE EAST-TO-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN A KEY FEATURE FOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FRONT ACTUALLY EXTENDS ALL THE
WAY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CONNECTING TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EVEN BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH-RES MODELS
DEPICT DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
REGION BY EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED AT
THIS POINT...BUT THE WARM FRONTAL PROCESSES ABOVE 900MB WILL
REALLY BE STARTING TO STRENGTHEN. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK WAVE AT
700MB...WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS ACTIVITY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SET OF FORECAST CONCERNS WILL SET UP FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
ORIENTED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE WARM SECTOR WELL ESTABLISHED
ALOFT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (EVIDENT AT 850MB AND BELOW) WILL
TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY DURING PEAK DIURNAL TIMING. ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...A SETUP FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FAVORED. BY
THIS POINT...THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 225-275 PERCENT OF
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING ALONG THE
SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY ARE ADDITIONAL INGREDIENTS THAT WILL ALLOW
SOME PERIODS OF PERSISTENT RAIN ON THURSDAY. NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...CONCERN HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH REGARDS TO
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING MUCH INSTABILITY (WITH THIN CAPE
PROFILES)...AND THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT KEEPS SBCAPE
GENERATION SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...AN ABUNDANCE OF WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE...MOST
CONCERNINGLY WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TURNING IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A WIND THREAT...BUT THE HELICITY AND
MOISTURE (WITH LCLS UNDER 2500 FEET) INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT.
ON A LARGER SCALE...THE BIG STORY FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE ILN CWA (WHERE THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A MODERATE RISK). THIS FRONT (AND PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH) WILL BE THE FINAL
CONCERN FOR THE ILN AREA. ON THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY...BEFORE THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BE STRENGTHENING...AND WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG (HARDLY
UNEXPECTED FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM). THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP INSTABILITY IN PLACE
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LATER ON
FRIDAY...SW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IS EVEN STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO
GUSTY CONDITIONS...AND WIND GUST NUMBERS WERE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE POTENTIAL
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS STILL A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN...GIVEN
QUESTIONS REGARDING THE JUXTAPOSITION OF FRONTAL
TIMING...MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY. THERE IS DEFINITELY AT LEAST
SOME LEVEL OF WIND THREAT...WITH A QLCS TYPE OF EVENT DEFINITELY
IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
TO SUMMARIZE THE HWO THREATS...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHWESTERNMOST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...AND THE
SEVERE THREAT (WIND / TORNADO) HAS BEEN MENTIONED CWA-WIDE. BOTH
THREATS ARE KEYED TWO-FOLD TO THE THURSDAY WAVE AND FRIDAY MORNING
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH...WHICH IS
TO BE EXPECTED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING A TIGHT GRADIENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MIN TEMPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA GOING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 60 DEGREES STRAIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES WERE REQUIRED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY. THOUGH THE LOW APPEARS
ON THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. AN UPPER TROUGH TRAILING THE
SURFACE LOW MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS THEREAFTER ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S...AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO PLACE AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...AND
THE MONITORING OF UPSTREAM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN CASE
AMENDMENTS WOULD BE NEEDED.
ON THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES
WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...CATEGORY BY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1028 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON WILL EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
REGION...ARRIVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND RH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF IN/OH/KY. THIS ACTIVITY IS TAKING AN ALMOST
EASTERLY PATH...AND IF SURVIVES ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE EAST COAST
RIDGE...COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO OR VERY
NEAR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MID-
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z/8AM HRRR SUGGESTS SUCH A SCENARIO.
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1021 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER FLORIDA AND EXTENDED INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WAS BRINGING
MILD AIR UP FROM THE SOUTH...PROVIDING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH ABOVE SEASONAL WARMTH.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED FROM THE MASON-DIXON WESTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WAS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM PITTSBURGH TO
KANSAS CITY.
FOR TODAY OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BASK IN THE WARMTH COURTESY OF
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE SURFACE
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL INCH ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TODAY ARRIVING
ALONG OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER BY SUNSET. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO THE AREA BACKDOOR STYLE...HAVING MORE OF A SOUTHWARD
EXTENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE WINDS
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND ACCELERATING EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE COURTESY OF THE LEVEL BARRIER JET. FRONT WILL
THEN PROVIDE A PATH FOR ANY UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WHICH DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SENSIBLE TREND
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
ENHANCING THE SHOWER THREAT UPSTREAM OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THE STRENGHT OF THE RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE FELT THAT THE MODELS WERE OVERDONE WITH QPF...ALTHOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF GETTING BRUSHED BY ORGANIZED DEEPER
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN MOVING
EAST INTO WV/PA. ATTM ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND FAVORED THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AIR MASS STAYS MILD UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER
70S IN THE EAST.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
USED THE ENS MOS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONT
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THEN TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY THIS TIME WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW.
WILL LEAN TOWARD WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS A WESTERN TRACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CIGS/VBSYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF VALID
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR
TOWARD 00Z THU...AND WILL LIKELY BACKDOOR AS FAR SOUTH AS KDAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
DRIFTING BACK NORTH THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE WEST...THEN COME MORE FROM
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BACKDOORS DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THINK WINDS AT LYNCHBURG WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY...AND OUT OF THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT ROANOKE AND POSSIBLY DANVILLE. WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS...KBLF AND VCNTY SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z/8AM
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING BACK NORTH
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT MAY TRANSLATE INTO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT FOR KBLF/KLWB AND POINTS NORTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LCL MVFR CONDITIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AN INITIAL TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FRONT WHICH CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STORM TRACK SUGGESTS PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RECORD VALUES HAVE BEEN CORRECTED.
RECORD HIGHS FOR APRIL 2
BLACKSBURG VA...87 IN 2010
BLUEFIELD WV....87 IN 2010
DANVILLE VA.....91 IN 2010
LEWISBURG WV....86 IN 2010
LYNCHBURG WV....88 IN 1963
ROANOKE VA......88 IN 2010
RECORD HIGHS FOR APRIL 3
BLACKSBURG VA...83 IN 1963
BLUEFIELD WV....81 IN 2010
DANVILLE VA.....90 IN 1963
LEWISBURG WV....81 IN 2010
LYNCHBURG VA....89 IN 1963
ROANOKE VA......88 IN 1963
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1002 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON WILL EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
REGION...ARRIVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND RH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF IN/OH/KY. THIS ACTIVITY IS TAKING AN ALMOST
EASTERLY PATH...AND IF SURVIVES ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE EAST COAST
RIDGE...COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO OR VERY
NEAR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MID-
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z/8AM HRRR SUGGESTS SUCH A SCENARIO.
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1021 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER FLORIDA AND EXTENDED INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WAS BRINGING
MILD AIR UP FROM THE SOUTH...PROVIDING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH ABOVE SEASONAL WARMTH.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED FROM THE MASON-DIXON WESTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WAS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM PITTSBURGH TO
KANSAS CITY.
FOR TODAY OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BASK IN THE WARMTH COURTESY OF
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE SURFACE
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL INCH ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TODAY ARRIVING
ALONG OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER BY SUNSET. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO THE AREA BACKDOOR STYLE...HAVING MORE OF A SOUTHWARD
EXTENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE WINDS
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND ACCELERATING EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE COURTESY OF THE LEVEL BARRIER JET. FRONT WILL
THEN PROVIDE A PATH FOR ANY UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WHICH DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SENSIBLE TREND
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
ENHANCING THE SHOWER THREAT UPSTREAM OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THE STRENGHT OF THE RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE FELT THAT THE MODELS WERE OVERDONE WITH QPF...ALTHOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF GETTING BRUSHED BY ORGANIZED DEEPER
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN MOVING
EAST INTO WV/PA. ATTM ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND FAVORED THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AIR MASS STAYS MILD UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER
70S IN THE EAST.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
USED THE ENS MOS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONT
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THEN TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY THIS TIME WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW.
WILL LEAN TOWARD WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS A WESTERN TRACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CIGS/VBSYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF VALID
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR
TOWARD 00Z THU...AND WILL LIKELY BACKDOOR AS FAR SOUTH AS KDAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
DRIFTING BACK NORTH THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE WEST...THEN COME MORE FROM
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BACKDOORS DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THINK WINDS AT LYNCHBURG WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY...AND OUT OF THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT ROANOKE AND POSSIBLY DANVILLE. WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS...KBLF AND VCNTY SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z/8AM
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING BACK NORTH
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT MAY TRANSLATE INTO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT FOR KBLF/KLWB AND POINTS NORTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LCL MVFR CONDITIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AN INITIAL TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FRONT WHICH CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STORM TRACK SUGGESTS PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...
RECORD HIGHS FOR APRIL 2
BLACKSBURG VA...72 IN 1976
BLUEFIELD WV....71 IN 1992
DANVILLE VA.....78 IN 2006
LEWISBURG WV....73 IN 1976
LYNCHBURG WV....77 IN 1992
ROANOKE VA......80 IN 1992
RECORD HIGHS FOR APRIL 3
BLACKSBURG VA...74 IN 1992
BLUEFIELD WV....74 IN 1974
DANVILLE VA.....80 IN 1976
LEWISBURG WV....76 IN 1976
LYNCHBURG VA....81 IN 1976
ROANOKE VA......84 IN 1976
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...DS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
833 AM PDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO UNTIL THE NEXT WET
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SHOWERY AND POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST THUNDER THREAT WILL BE FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Minor updates to add mention of isolated afternoon and evening
showers somewhat similar to what occurred yesterday as the
somewhat cool and slightly unstable airmass, despite the presence
of a cap at 600mb per KOTX morning sounding, supports their
formation. That and a few recent runs of the HRRR depict such a
scenario between 21Z and 03Z Today. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Expect occasional mid cloud ceilings of 9000-11000 ft
AGL across the Idaho Panhandle...Palouse and Spokane region this
morning. Though clouds will be increasing also across the Upper
Columbia Basin...any ceilings are expected to be cirrus.
Conditions will continue to remain VFR through at least Thursday
morning.bz
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 34 58 39 53 35 / 20 20 0 50 40 20
Coeur d`Alene 56 33 56 38 52 35 / 20 20 0 50 50 20
Pullman 52 35 57 38 53 36 / 20 20 0 50 50 20
Lewiston 60 38 63 43 59 40 / 10 10 10 20 40 20
Colville 58 32 60 37 57 34 / 20 20 10 40 50 20
Sandpoint 51 31 58 35 50 33 / 20 20 10 50 80 30
Kellogg 51 33 58 35 49 33 / 20 20 10 50 70 40
Moses Lake 63 34 61 39 61 38 / 0 0 10 20 20 10
Wenatchee 62 38 61 40 60 40 / 0 0 10 20 10 10
Omak 62 34 60 35 59 36 / 0 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
957 AM PDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY
PROVIDING FOR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND PROVIDE FOR A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON 12Z RAOB DATA...CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR DATA...AND HRRR
RUNS HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. FIRST
WAS TO CANCEL ADVY FOR THE SIERRA. SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY ENDED
THERE AND NELY FLOR IS NOW TAKING HOLD. I EXPECT TO SEE MORE
SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVY LEVELS AND BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FURTHER
SOUTH...EXTENDED THE ADVY IN KERN COUNTY UNTIL 21Z/2PM. SNOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO HANG LOWER AND WITH EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THREAT OF SNOW AT PASS LEVEL CAN/T BE
DISCOUNTED. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA TO A
SLIVER OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY BASED ON HRRR RUNS...SREF
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...AND BUFR POINT SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA.
WILL BE HARD TO SEE ANY STORMS FURTHER NORTH AS MID-LEVELS WILL
ALREADY BE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A MODEST MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE CAP TO DEVELOP.
PREVIOUS...
SINCE THE PREVAILING AIRMASS IS UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR EARLY APRIL
(BELOW -30 DEG C AT 500 MB AND BELOW -10 DEG C AT 700 MB)...HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 10-15 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY AND
PROVIDES OUR AREA WITH A DRY DAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD 5-10 DEG F BUT STILL BLOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE PAC NW AND NORCAL ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRINGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...IT WILL PROVIDE FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A DRY UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OFF THE CA COAST.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING
TO STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY THEN BUILD THE
RIDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ON
SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RISE.
THE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY AND PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z TODAY. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
IN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 04-02 87:1985 56:1907 57:2011 34:1982
KFAT 04-03 91:2000 52:1958 56:1933 33:1964
KFAT 04-04 88:1952 54:1976 57:1961 33:1999
KBFL 04-02 90:1985 57:1981 60:2002 35:1999
KBFL 04-03 90:1961 53:1965 62:1966 35:1955
KBFL 04-04 90:1971 58:1924 62:1961 34:1914
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 3500
FEET FOR THE CAZ095.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...INIGUEZ
AVN/FW...JDB
PREV DISCUSSION...DS
SYNOPSIS...JDB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
300 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
Main concern in the short term is severe weather potential...with
the greatest risk expected late Thursday through Thursday night.
In the near term...a strong surface warm front was located just
south of a line from kmdh to kowb at 19z. The models have been too
quick to lift the front northward. Relied on the HRRR guidance for
this front...meaning the front will be nearly stationary from the
kevv/kowb area to kmdh well into the evening. The front may not
clear the Interstate 64 corridor until midnight or later. Widespread
elevated convection north of the front should remain generally along
and north of I 64.
Late this evening into the overnight hours...showers and storms will
increase in coverage across the entire region as the southwest flow
aloft becomes more active. The models indicate a series of weak
impulses originating in the subtropical Pacific will begin to affect
our region. In the lower levels...the southerly low level jet will
increase to between 40 and 50 knots by 12z. Some locally heavy rain
is possible...mainly across southern IL and southeast MO. The severe
weather potential will be rather limited by lack of surface based
instability. Enough elevated instability will be present for some
hailers...especially given wet bulb zero heights around 10k feet.
Damaging wind potential will be limited by weak low level lapse
rates.
On Thursday...there may be a lull in the activity during the
morning. Activity should increase during the afternoon as daytime
heating destabilizes the atmosphere. The 12z gfs/09z sref indicate
surface based capes will be near 2000 j/kg later in the afternoon
across southeast MO and southwest IL. The shear/instability
parameters are strongly favorable for supercells across Missouri
during the afternoon. Any activity that forms east of the
Mississippi River will be in a less favorable environment for
supercell structures.
By late Thursday night...the activity is likely to congeal into a
QLCS by the time it reaches sw Indiana and the Pennyrile region of
west Kentucky. By midnight...the environment will be characterized
by high shear and low cape. This should result in more of a wind
threat than hail or tornadoes. During the transition period in the
evening hours...any combination of organized storm structures could
occur...producing damaging wind/large hail/tornadoes. This
transition appears likely to occur across southern IL and far west
Kentucky.
Storm total qpf for the entire short term period is currently
forecast from around 1.5 to almost 3 inches...with the highest
amounts in southern IL and southeast MO. These amounts are not
expected to cause significant flooding problems over a widespread
area. Localized higher amounts /isolated flooding remains possible.
The cold front will move east across the kevv/khop areas around 12z
Friday...ending all precipitation. Strong drying in the wake of the
front should result in mainly sunny skies by afternoon. Temps will
remain nearly steady in the upper 50s to lower 60s through the day.
Friday night will be markedly colder as surface high pressure
provides clear skies and decreasing winds. Some frost or even a
light freeze is possible early Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
After the mid week system makes passage, we cool off for the weekend
and cool temps stick around through the remainder of the long term
portion of the forecast.
Dry weather prevails in a zonal flow pattern through the weekend.
Another system takes shape as a long wave trof carves across the
southern Plains. A surface low develops and lifts across the lower
MS valley, bringing our next bout of rain/showers into/across the
PAH FA mainly Sunday night-Monday. This happens as a broad long wave
trof carves out across the eastern half of the country, with us in
the cool/damp flow underneath.
Net result will be a cool back into the upper 50s and lower 60s for
highs this weekend, continuing into/through next week. Lows likewise
cool back into the 40s with even some upper 30s not out of the
question. These represent values some 10 degrees or more below climo
norms for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
Flight terminals are warm sectored now...so cigs/vsbys have returned
to VFR. A piece of energy in the upper flow ejects tonight, and may
result in a round of late night showers/storms that restricts
cigs/vsbys to MVFR. Isolated thunderstorms are capable of IFR
restrictions, but not in prevailing forecast. Stronger action
expected with system passage tomorrow night. Winds become southerly
and increase in speed and gusts tomorrow, on its approach.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...DH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
406 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND SETTLES
OVER NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS SITUATED (AS OF 19Z) FROM THE CENTRAL
VA PIEDMONT TO THE BORDER OF SE VA/NE NC. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S FROM THE S-CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT TO NE NC. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER. READINGS AWAY FROM THE COASTS ARE
GENERALLY 65-70...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COASTLINES.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE MORE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING ONCE STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING WANES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N). A RATHER EXTENSIVE MCS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A MOIST
FRONTAL BAND ALOFT...WHICH EXTENDS W-E FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. 02/17Z HRRR SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD LINGER E OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...SO
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER
COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT LARGELY REMAINS S OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
ONSHORE FLOW UNDERNEATH WAA ALOFT. THIS WILL ALSO LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S NE...TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S S/SW. HIGHS WILL BE LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NE...AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL THE FRONT N AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER THE
MOST RESISTANCE AND WILL BE SLOWEST TO CLEAR THE EXTREME NRN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. HOWEVER...ALL
AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CHC POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED N THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
AREA (AWAY FROM THE COASTS)...WITH UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FOR CENTRAL
PORTIONS. THE EASTERN SHORE WILL BE TRICKIER...PARTIAL CLEARING
COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH INTERIOR PORTIONS INTO THE LOW/MID
70S...WHILE 65-70 WOULD BE MORE REALISTIC WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER. SE FLOW IS LIKELY TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO QB FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY SLIGHT CHC/LOW-END CHC
POPS ARE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE PRIMARY FORCING
PULLS WELL N OF THE AREA. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE
MIDWEST ON MONDAY...LIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY.
AS IT DOES SO IT WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
QUICKER IN BRINGING PCPN INTO OUR SW COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT AND THE GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT HIGH PCPN
CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT
SLOWING UP AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...WILL HAVE TO CARRY POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE. AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
EAST NEXT WEDNESDAY MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
SAT NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGH SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY IN THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES
WILL REMAIN OFF THE SE CST THIS AFTN INTO FRI...AS A WEAK FRNTL
BNDRY (WARM FRNT) DROPS INTO THE MID ATLC AND LINGERS OVR THE AREA.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BUT MORE CLOUDS LATER TNGT INTO THU
AFTN...DUE TO THE FRNTL BNDRY AND EASTERLY SFC WINDS. LWRING
CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TO IFR CIGS) AND A CHC OF SHOWERS ESPLY AT
RIC/SBY THU EVENG INTO FRI MORNG. COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FM
THE W LATE FRI...THEN MOVE ACRS THE REGION FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNG
BRINGING A CHC FOR SHOWERS ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA INTO THURS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. EXPECT 1-2 FT
WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
EXPECT SEAS UP TO 4 FT FRI. AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON SAT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NW THEN N AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE W. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA THRESHOLDS ON
THE OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
216 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
BOTH TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM THE MID WEST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH OVER THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12 NOON UPDATE... A COUPLE OF MORE MINOR CHGS WERE MADE
ATTM...MAINLY TO SPEED UP THE EXIT OF THE THICKER CLDS BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS...AND ALSO TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SPRINKLES
OVER NE PA.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS JUNCTURE.
930 AM UPDATE... ONCE AGN...THE FCST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...SO
JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS ARE REQUIRED ATTM.
A BAND OF -RA/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE SRN HALF OF PA
LATE THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH OVERRUNNING DYNAMICS JUST N OF A SFC
BNDRY ACRS DELMARVA...AND ALSO A RGN OF UPR-LVL DIFFLUENCE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH OF THIS PCPN WILL STAY S OF OUR FA
THROUGH EARLY AFTN...SO WE`LL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A MENTION OF
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR FAR SRN ZNS.
AS THE AFTN WEARS ON...WE THINK THE PRESENT CLOUD COVER WILL THIN
OUT...SPCLY OVER CNY...SO OUR PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST IN THIS
TIME FRAME STILL LOOKS GOOD.
12Z SNDGS...ALG WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WEAK LOW-LVL CAA
TDY...BASICALLY SUPPORT OUR HIGH TEMP FCST...RANGING FROM THE 40S
ACRS UPSTATE NY...TO THE MID AND UPR 50S FOR MOST OF NE PA. WE
BLENDED THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC-13 TEMP DATA INTO THE GRIDS...JUST
TO BETTER DEFINE THE N TO S THERMAL GRADIENT THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN THE VCNTY KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MINS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS
OCCURS THE WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SRN PA/NRN MD WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HOLDING THE LIGHT RAIN OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CHC POPS OVER NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NRN CWA AND WESTERN CATSKILLS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, BOUNDARY CONTINUES MAKING SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD
ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE GFS IS
MUCH HEAVIER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF BUT APPEARS TO BE HINDERED WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND NOT FOLLOWED. CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH CHC POPS OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. ON FRIDAY, H85 WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA
RESULTING IN GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA
AND DRAG AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIOD WILL START OFF ON A COOL BUT DRY NOTE AS THE EARLY WEEKEND
STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS IN CENTRAL NY...WITH LOW 50S
LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LWR WYOMING VLY. BEYOND
THIS...FCST MODELS CONTINUE THEIR SUGGESTION THAT A FAIRLY
UNSETTLED PERIOD WILL BE UPON US AS A DEEP LOW MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN CONSOLIDATING SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. FORTUNATELY
THROUGH...THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
THIS A RAIN EVENT AS MAIN 850-HPA LOW TRAVELS WEST OF OUR AREA.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...EXPECT RAIN TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. BEYOND THIS...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING 850-HPA
TEMPS TO AGAIN FALL BELOW ZERO. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DEVELOPING
WEAK LAKE EFFECT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HOWEVER TIME OF YEAR
SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY...WITH A
RA/SN MIX POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY FALL TO BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. BY
TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WHILE LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WITH DIFFUSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DOWN
ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THIS TREND SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTH
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LWR OHIO VLY AND SOUTHERN PA. FCST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
SOME WEAK SHWR ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO AVP AFTER 12Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
CURRENT FCST. ASIDE FROM MID CLOUDS UP NORTH AFTER 12Z...NO MAJOR
IMPACTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THU NGT...VFR ACROSS CNY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT AVP WITH
DEVELOPING SHWR ACTIVITY.
FRI/SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN/LWR CIGS.
SUN/SUN NGT...VFR.
MON...AFTERNOON RESTRICTIONS AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
301 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER
OVERNIGHT...THEN RETREAT BACK NORTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
WHILE SURFACE LIFTED INDICES ON MSAS OUTPUT HAVE FALLEN INTO
NEGATIVE VALUES OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THERE EXISTS SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...THE SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION OVER THAT AREA AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE QUITE LOW...
BELOW THE MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS AND MOSTLY IN THE 30S. THE RAP DID
QUITE WELL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS TODAY...AND WHILE THE LATEST GFS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...ITS SURFACE DEW POINT FORECAST SEEMS VERY HIGH AND THE
LATEST HRRR WRF KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION A FEW SETS OF COUNTIES NORTH
INTO VIRGINIA DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850MB
DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL...PARTICULARLY BY THE NAM.
HOWEVER...AS A 500MB JETLET AROUND 40KT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING...MOISTURE INCREASES
OVERALL...WITH MODEST 850MB THETA-E RIDGING...K INDICES INCREASING
TO AROUND 30...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES AT OR JUST ABOVE 1.25 INCHES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASES ON THE 305K SURFACE FOR A PERIOD
THURSDAY...MOVING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE
500MB JETLET AND WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST 850MB LIFT. THE
GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING WITH THE LIFT
TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MOST PARTICULARLY IN AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE NCEP AND SPC WRF GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOW THE GREATEST PROBABILITY. FOR THURSDAY...WILL KEEP
PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT
WEAKENING OF ECHOES AS THEY APPROACH...BUT ALSO THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCES THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVERALL SOUTH OF U.S. 64 EXCEPT DRY FROM ABOUT KMEB TO JUST
SOUTH OF KGSB WHERE BUFR SOUNDINGS...OVERALL MOISTURE...AND
AVAILABLE LIFT SEEM TOO LIMITED CURRENTLY FOR PRECIPITATION. ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF U.S. 64...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
MAY BE IN THE FORM OF A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH MORE STEEPENING OF LAYER LAPSE RATES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFTED INDICES FALL TO NEAR -3C...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STABLE...AND THE
WRF GUIDANCE IS CERTAINLY NOT AS ROBUST AS THE NAM. BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT AT THIS POINT THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE LEANS MORE TOWARD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY IF THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THURSDAY...AND IT COULD BE
A SITUATION WHERE THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WARMS NICELY LATE IN
THE DAY WHILE THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN ONLY GETS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S...WITH MORE CLOUDS THERE AND NEARER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AS WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE TO NEAR
30KT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
TO HAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
K INDICES FALL TO NEGATIVE VALUES UNDER AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY
CERTAINLY APPEAR TO BE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL MOVE OFF WELL TO NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HENCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
PRECIP/LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...THE
SPC KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH OUR
EXTREME WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER. THIS IS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FINALLY SHOWING IT
ERODE BY AROUND 00Z/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE LINE OF
STORMS MAKES IT TO OUR REGION...ANY MINIMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WHERE THE ARRIVAL TIMING WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER.
OTHERWISE...ONLY LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT...AS
THE AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER
EAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND DEPENDING ON THE SPEED...THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THAT FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY...TEMPS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GENERALLY MID/UPPER 50S
TO THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...MOSTLY LOW
TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
THEN OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERRUNNING PRECIP SHOULD COMMENCE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE OLD FRONT MOVES NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE. AS SUCH...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SOME LEVEL OF CAD SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. THE WEATHER SHOULD
STAY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IF THE CAD HOLDS IN PLACE AS
EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS COULD BE CHALLENGING PARTICULARLY FROM KINT
AND KGSO TO KRWI...INCLUDING KRDU...WHERE WINDS COULD SHIFT BRIEFLY
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
MOST OTHER AREAS...MINIMALLY...THOUGH...TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ.
CURRENTLY...WITH ANY SHOWER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT TO 30 TO 35KT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...THEN LIKELY TO AT LEAST 40KT OR A LITTLE BETTER OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS INCREASES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
242 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER
OVERNIGHT...THEN RETREAT BACK NORTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
WHILE SURFACE LIFTED INDICES ON MSAS OUTPUT HAVE FALLEN INTO
NEGATIVE VALUES OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THERE EXISTS SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...THE SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION OVER THAT AREA AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE QUITE LOW...
BELOW THE MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS AND MOSTLY IN THE 30S. THE RAP DID
QUITE WELL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS TODAY...AND WHILE THE LATEST GFS
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...ITS SURFACE DEW POINT FORECAST SEEMS VERY HIGH AND THE
LATEST HRRR WRF KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION A FEW SETS OF COUNTIES NORTH
INTO VIRGINIA DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850MB
DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL...PARTICULARLY BY THE NAM.
HOWEVER...AS A 500MB JETLET AROUND 40KT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING...MOISTURE INCREASES
OVERALL...WITH MODEST 850MB THETA-E RIDGING...K INDICES INCREASING
TO AROUND 30...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES AT OR JUST ABOVE 1.25 INCHES.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO INCREASES ON THE 305K SURFACE FOR A PERIOD
THURSDAY...MOVING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE
500MB JETLET AND WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE AND MODEST 850MB LIFT. THE
GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING WITH THE LIFT
TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MOST PARTICULARLY IN AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE THE NCEP AND SPC WRF GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOW THE GREATEST PROBABILITY. FOR THURSDAY...WILL KEEP
PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT
WEAKENING OF ECHOES AS THEY APPROACH...BUT ALSO THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCES THERE...TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVERALL SOUTH OF U.S. 64 EXCEPT DRY FROM ABOUT KMEB TO JUST
SOUTH OF KGSB WHERE BUFR SOUNDINGS...OVERALL MOISTURE...AND
AVAILABLE LIFT SEEM TOO LIMITED CURRENTLY FOR PRECIPITATION. ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF U.S. 64...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
MAY BE IN THE FORM OF A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH MORE STEEPENING OF LAYER LAPSE RATES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFTED INDICES FALL TO NEAR -3C...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STABLE...AND THE
WRF GUIDANCE IS CERTAINLY NOT AS ROBUST AS THE NAM. BRIEFLY
CONSIDERED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT AT THIS POINT THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE LEANS MORE TOWARD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY IF THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS VERIFY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THURSDAY...AND IT COULD BE
A SITUATION WHERE THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WARMS NICELY LATE IN
THE DAY WHILE THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN ONLY GETS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S...WITH MORE CLOUDS THERE AND NEARER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AS WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE TO NEAR
30KT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
TO HAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
K INDICES FALL TO NEGATIVE VALUES UNDER AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY
CERTAINLY APPEAR TO BE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
FRI AND FRI NIGHT: OVERALL MINIMAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES...THOUGH
NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. CONTINUED WARM FRI...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S
NW PIEDMONT WHERE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ESPECIALLY AFTER
NOON...RANGING TO PERSISTENCE LOWER 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
DESPITE AROUND 500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY FRI...AND SIGNIFICANT INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE SEA BREEZE OWING TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE FLOW...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MID
LEVEL CAP AND ASSOCIATED CINH BETWEEN 100-150 J/KG. AS SUCH...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY CUMULUS TO BREAK THE CAP UNTIL BETTER
DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...BUT STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ...ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
IN FACT...IT IS LIKELY THAT A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EVOLVE FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST
STATES...IN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE
AND PARENT S/W TROUGH/UPPER LOW; AND THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...OR PERHAPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN WITH BOTH TIME AND WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT...OWING TO BOTH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND THE WELL-
TO-OUR-NW PASSAGE OF THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. NONETHELESS...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
CONDITIONAL UPON THUNDER INDEED MATERIALIZING - MORE LIKELY WEST OF
THE TRIANGLE WHERE THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BETTER COINCIDE
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
SAT THROUGH SUN: THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SAT...BUT LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IN WNW POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL
OTHERWISE PREVAIL. STILL WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT
NIGHT. COOLER SUN - IN THE 60S - IN NE FLOW AROUND 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE WHOSE TIMING IS FASTER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS WHAT IT
APPEARED YESTERDAY.
NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL INDEED BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AND BUCKLE NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUN-
MON. THE ASSOCIATED CONFLUENCE ALOFT INDUCED BY THE BUCKLING OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF A DAMMING HIGH
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GOM. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER IN A STRENGTHENING REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP
THE SURFACE HIGH...AND CONSEQUENT RAIN AND CAD...FOR SUN NIGHT-MON.
AFTER PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE IN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MON NIGHT-EARLY
TUE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A L/W TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS COULD BE CHALLENGING PARTICULARLY FROM KINT
AND KGSO TO KRWI...INCLUDING KRDU...WHERE WINDS COULD SHIFT BRIEFLY
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
MOST OTHER AREAS...MINIMALLY...THOUGH...TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ.
CURRENTLY...WITH ANY SHOWER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT TO 30 TO 35KT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...THEN LIKELY TO AT LEAST 40KT OR A LITTLE BETTER OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS INCREASES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
226 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER
OVERNIGHT...THEN RETREAT BACK NORTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM WEDNESDAY...
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE
30S...AND 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH KGSO AND KMHX NOTED A VERY DRY
COLUMN BASICALLY TO THE TROPOPAUSE. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT EAST OF THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS...THOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS APPEARED TO BE THINNING AS THEY MOVED EAST TOWARD THE AREA.
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE...PLAN-VIEW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ITS MODEL
SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY DRY IN THE MEAN THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER SUBSIDENCE. AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON...A LITTLE BETTER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE
MAY HELP ALLOW FOR MORE OF A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY
OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR WRF LOW-LEVEL WIND FORECAST
SUGGESTS A LIGHT NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND TOWARD KIXA
FROM 23Z TO 02Z. GIVEN THE DRY AIR...EXPECTED AMPLE SUNSHINE...AND
1000-850MB THICKNESSES FROM THE 12Z KGSO OBSERVATION TO WHAT IS
FORECAST LATER TODAY...RAISED MAXES A DEGREE OR TWO MOST
LOCATIONS... CLOSER TO THE MOS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. MANY TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 70F AT JUST AFTER 930 AM SUN-TIME. -DJF
TONIGHT...AS THE FRONT SETTLES ALONG THE NC-VA BORDER...MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WHERE NON-MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR AS THE 00Z/02 NAM SHOWS DEEPER SATURATION
OWING TO WEAK S/W ENERGY CRESTING ATOP THE RIDGE ALOFT. LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. -CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...
THU: A COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTH IN BACKDOOR FASHION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
TONIGHT...TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER BY THU
MORNING - 50 TO 100 MILES FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
WHILE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS A COLD ONE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN -
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BENEATH THE CENTER OF THE
1024 HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING - AN EQUALLY STRONG
HIGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. EQUILIBRIUM
BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL MEET RESISTANCE
AS IT TRIES TO DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC...AND AS SUCH...THE FARTHER
SOUTH FRONTAL POSITIONING OF THE NAM...SOUTH OF US HWY 64...IS
CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS ONE
INDICATED BY THE EC AND GFS...SUCH THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER...ROUGHLY ALONG AN ARC FROM KDAN-KETC-
KHAT...AND WHOSE POSITION WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED LESS BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE PROCESSES/EQUILIBRIUM AND MORE BY
MESOSCALE ONES DRIVEN BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS COOL (MID 30S-MID
40S FAHRENHEIT) MID-ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS PER AVHRR-OBSERVED SST
DATA.
THE RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY UP TO A FEW
DEGREES (INTO THE LOWER 80S) SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED FRONTAL
POSITION...BASED UPON THE ANTECEDENT WARMTH THAT RESULTED IN HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S ALREADY ON TUE...WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO THOSE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST NEAR THE VA BORDER (IN THE MID-UPPER 70S).
BOTH THE 00Z/2ND NAM AND EC ALSO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN NC...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AROUND THE TOP OF A 318-319 DM
RIDGE OVER THE FL PENINSULA. MOISTURE IN BOTH MODELS IS MOSTLY OF
THE MID LEVEL VARIETY...SO THE PROSPECTS OF RAINFALL - OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A SPRINKLE - IS LOW...PARTICULARLY SINCE THE PARENT...
ALREADY-LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE SHOULD ONLY FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE RIDGE OVER THE SE.
THU NIGHT: THE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH VA THU
NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF A CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MIGRATE
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. MILD LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED.
FRI AND FRI NIGHT: OVERALL MINIMAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES...THOUGH
NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. CONTINUED WARM FRI...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S
NW PIEDMONT WHERE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ESPECIALLY AFTER
NOON...RANGING TO PERSISTENCE LOWER 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
DESPITE AROUND 500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY FRI...AND SIGNIFICANT INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE SEA BREEZE OWING TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE FLOW...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MID
LEVEL CAP AND ASSOCIATED CINH BETWEEN 100-150 J/KG. AS SUCH...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY CUMULUS TO BREAK THE CAP UNTIL BETTER
DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...BUT STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ...ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
IN FACT...IT IS LIKELY THAT A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EVOLVE FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST
STATES...IN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE
AND PARENT S/W TROUGH/UPPER LOW; AND THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...OR PERHAPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN WITH BOTH TIME AND WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT...OWING TO BOTH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND THE WELL-
TO-OUR-NW PASSAGE OF THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. NONETHELESS...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
CONDITIONAL UPON THUNDER INDEED MATERIALIZING - MORE LIKELY WEST OF
THE TRIANGLE WHERE THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BETTER COINCIDE
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
SAT THROUGH SUN: THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SAT...BUT LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IN WNW POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL
OTHERWISE PREVAIL. STILL WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT
NIGHT. COOLER SUN - IN THE 60S - IN NE FLOW AROUND 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE WHOSE TIMING IS FASTER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS WHAT IT
APPEARED YESTERDAY.
NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL INDEED BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AND BUCKLE NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUN-
MON. THE ASSOCIATED CONFLUENCE ALOFT INDUCED BY THE BUCKLING OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF A DAMMING HIGH
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GOM. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER IN A STRENGTHENING REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP
THE SURFACE HIGH...AND CONSEQUENT RAIN AND CAD...FOR SUN NIGHT-MON.
AFTER PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE IN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MON NIGHT-EARLY
TUE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A L/W TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES MAY
SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS COULD BE CHALLENGING PARTICULARLY FROM KINT
AND KGSO TO KRWI...INCLUDING KRDU...WHERE WINDS COULD SHIFT BRIEFLY
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
MOST OTHER AREAS...MINIMALLY...THOUGH...TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ.
CURRENTLY...WITH ANY SHOWER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT TO 30 TO 35KT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...THEN LIKELY TO AT LEAST 40KT OR A LITTLE BETTER OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS INCREASES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/CBL
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
324 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT NOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND RESIDES ACROSS KY. DEWPOINTS
ARE GENERALLY NOW INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. RADAR IS PRECIP FREE
FOR NOW BUT WE ARE WATCHING A DEVELOPING AREA OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN MS AND NE AR. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRANSFER OF ENERGY WITHIN THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVERNIGHT. HRRR CONCURS WITH DEVELOPMENT OVERSPREADING A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE REASONABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THUS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM SWILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FEW STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG WITH HIGH WINDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING OR PRE MIDNIGHT HOURS. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS AS THE BETTER VORTICITY CENTERS ARE
WELL EAST OF THE MID STATE BY 12Z.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...INSTABILITY...MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL ALL BE ON THE INCREASE. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL COME INTO PLAY...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND 16Z AND
BEYOND. AT THAT TIME...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. IN THE AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG TSTMS AND
MAYBE EVEN 1 OR 2 SEVERE STORMS. CAPES APPROACH 1000J/KG AND COMBINE
WITH A 40 KT 850 MB FLOW WITHIN A SEMI-IMPRESSIVE OMEGA SHIELD. MEAN
MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL BE MOVING FROM ABOUT 240
DEG. ALSO NOTE THAT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT
I DO NOT FORESEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP. EVEN THOUGH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT TAKE PLACE
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...PREFRONTAL FORCING WILL AID WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS. NOTE THAT THE BETTER OVERALL DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEST OF MIDDLE TN. ORGANIZATION
DEFICIENCIES OF OMEGA FIELDS COUPLED WITH LOWER CAPES AND WEAKER JET
DYNAMICS MAY IMPEDE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY FROM REACHING SEVERE
LEVELS. TYPICALLY...THE 50KT+ LLJ SPEEDS WILL EXIST SIMULTANEOUSLY
WITH WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR OMEGA FIELDS. WE JUST ARE NOT SEEING THAT
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THAT SAID...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S WITH SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE 12Z SHOWALTER VALUES CANNOT BE
DISMISSED. IN THE ZONES...I WILL MENTION SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN
AREAS.
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...SATURDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY AS WELL LOOK TO BE 2
NICE DAYS AS WE ENJOY A BRIEFLY DRY PATTERN. BUT...THIS WILL NOT
LAST AS A SFC LOW IX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF AND TRACK
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID STATE. FURTHERMORE...ONCE THE LOW TRACK NE
OF OUR AREA...AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL REINFORCE OUR RAIN CHANCES.
TSTM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THIS PATTERN.
BUT...THAT SFC LOW MIGHT TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...WHICH WOULD
MEAN A FEW MORE TSTMS.
AS FOR TEMPS...IN THE SHORT TERM...MILD AND ON THE HUMID SIDE
THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL COOL DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THOUGH. IN THE EXTENDED...TEMPS LOOK TO BE
GENERALLY NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. BUT...THAT COULD CHANGE AND WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 63 77 62 72 / 50 50 80 30
CLARKSVILLE 61 76 60 68 / 60 60 80 20
CROSSVILLE 59 75 59 71 / 20 20 70 70
COLUMBIA 63 78 63 72 / 30 40 80 30
LAWRENCEBURG 61 78 63 72 / 30 30 80 20
WAVERLY 62 76 61 69 / 60 60 90 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
102 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...CEILING TRENDS.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR...BUT IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS...
SOME LOCATIONS HAVE DETERIORATED ONCE AGAIN. THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST OF I-35...BUT TAF
SITES MAY SEE SOME BRIEF RAIN. WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS BENIGN CONVECTION TO TRANSITION TO
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL THINK THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY NEAR IN
APPROACHING DRYLINE. THIS COULD IMPACT WEST DEPARTURES AND
NORTHWEST ARRIVALS BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE ACTIVITY WILL REACH ANY
TAF SITES.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
STRATUS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL TEXAS AGAIN THIS EVENING...REACHING
THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SOON THEREAFTER. A DRYLINE WILL
SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY...LIKELY
BEFORE ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES.
WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS...THUS DO NOT EXPECT CROSSWIND ISSUES.
EXTENDED...
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
25
&&
.UPDATE...
RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POP CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE EVENING
BASED ON CURRENT THINKING. THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
MIDLAND TO NEAR CHILDRESS WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY FALLING OFF TO THE
WEST. MODELS TRY TO SHARPEN THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES EAST BEFORE STALLING WEST OF THE CWA
NEAR ABILENE ONCE AGAIN. THE HRRR FORECASTED YESTERDAYS STORMS
FAIRLY WELL...AND IS INITIATING CONVECTION NEAR THE DRYLINE WEST
OF THE CWA...THEN SKIRTING A STORM INTO THE THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER 00Z. CHANCES FOR A LONGTRACK STORM THROUGH OUR CWA LIKE LAST
NIGHT ARE A BIT LESS LIKELY TODAY. SOME MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE
DRYLINE TO STALL FARTHER WEST TODAY WHICH MEANS STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TODAY HAVE A LONGER WAY TO GO BEFORE MAKING IT INTO OUR
CWA. STORM MOTIONS TODAY WILL ALSO BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY THAN
EASTERLY WHICH WOULD FAVOR LESS ACTIVITY IN THE CWA. THINK 20 POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN COVERING
ANY THREAT.
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN
PLACE...BUT WITH ONGOING HEIGHT FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH...THE CAP SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT. MODELS ARE
SHOWING NO CAP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AFTER 20Z AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS...BUT LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE CONVECTION. UPPED POPS TO 30 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014/
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR TODAY...THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED BACK TO THE NM/TX BORDER
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE CWA DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
THE DRYLINE WILL ONLY REACH A MUNDAY...ABILENE...BALLINGER LINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT WILL BE MINIMUM DURING
THE DAY... CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AT MID AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE DRYLINE. DUE TO HIGH CAPE...VERY
NEGATIVE LI/S AND 25-30 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR...STRONG PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS WILL LEAD TO LARGE HAIL FORMATION /UP TO TENNIS
BALL/...A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND MAYBE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT AGAIN INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...BUT WILL
MAKE A STRONG PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS A DAY OF WORRY AS DYNAMICS
AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AGAIN LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. TO THE WEST OF I-35 ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA
AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AND WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF OKLAHOMA IN THE EVENING
AND BRING US COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS ACTIVE WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OFF SHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS...
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BACK OVER THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH LOW CHANCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SLOWING OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING AND ON TUESDAY...THUS DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM TODAY AND ON THURSDAY THEN
RETURNING TO SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 82 68 82 50 70 / 20 20 30 10 5
WACO, TX 82 72 81 51 72 / 20 20 30 10 5
PARIS, TX 79 69 79 50 67 / 30 50 60 20 5
DENTON, TX 82 66 80 47 69 / 20 20 30 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 80 69 80 48 69 / 20 20 40 10 5
DALLAS, TX 82 69 82 50 70 / 20 20 40 10 5
TERRELL, TX 81 70 79 51 67 / 30 30 40 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 81 70 80 52 67 / 30 20 40 20 5
TEMPLE, TX 82 73 82 52 70 / 20 20 30 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 83 64 83 47 69 / 20 20 10 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1118 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
RAN A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POP CONFIGURATION THROUGH THE EVENING
BASED ON CURRENT THINKING. THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
MIDLAND TO NEAR CHILDRESS WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY FALLING OFF TO THE
WEST. MODELS TRY TO SHARPEN THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES EAST BEFORE STALLING WEST OF THE CWA
NEAR ABILENE ONCE AGAIN. THE HRRR FORECASTED YESTERDAYS STORMS
FAIRLY WELL...AND IS INITIATING CONVECTION NEAR THE DRYLINE WEST
OF THE CWA...THEN SKIRTING A STORM INTO THE THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER 00Z. CHANCES FOR A LONGTRACK STORM THROUGH OUR CWA LIKE LAST
NIGHT ARE A BIT LESS LIKELY TODAY. SOME MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE
DRYLINE TO STALL FARTHER WEST TODAY WHICH MEANS STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TODAY HAVE A LONGER WAY TO GO BEFORE MAKING IT INTO OUR
CWA. STORM MOTIONS TODAY WILL ALSO BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY THAN
EASTERLY WHICH WOULD FAVOR LESS ACTIVITY IN THE CWA. THINK 20 POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN COVERING
ANY THREAT.
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN
PLACE...BUT WITH ONGOING HEIGHT FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH...THE CAP SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT. MODELS ARE
SHOWING NO CAP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AFTER 20Z AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS...BUT LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE CONVECTION. UPPED POPS TO 30 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014/
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR TODAY...THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED BACK TO THE NM/TX BORDER
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE CWA DURING THE DAY. EXPECT
THE DRYLINE WILL ONLY REACH A MUNDAY...ABILENE...BALLINGER LINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LIFT WILL BE MINIMUM DURING
THE DAY... CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AT MID AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE DRYLINE. DUE TO HIGH CAPE...VERY
NEGATIVE LI/S AND 25-30 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR...STRONG PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS WILL LEAD TO LARGE HAIL FORMATION /UP TO TENNIS
BALL/...A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND MAYBE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT AGAIN INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...BUT WILL
MAKE A STRONG PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS A DAY OF WORRY AS DYNAMICS
AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AGAIN LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. TO THE WEST OF I-35 ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA
AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AND WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
AS THE DRYLINE MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF OKLAHOMA IN THE EVENING
AND BRING US COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS ACTIVE WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OFF SHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS...
MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BACK OVER THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH LOW CHANCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SLOWING OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
REGION BY MONDAY EVENING AND ON TUESDAY...THUS DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM TODAY AND ON THURSDAY THEN
RETURNING TO SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 82 68 82 50 70 / 20 20 30 10 5
WACO, TX 82 72 81 51 72 / 20 20 30 10 5
PARIS, TX 79 69 79 50 67 / 30 50 60 20 5
DENTON, TX 82 66 80 47 69 / 20 20 30 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 80 69 80 48 69 / 20 20 40 10 5
DALLAS, TX 82 69 82 50 70 / 20 20 40 10 5
TERRELL, TX 81 70 79 51 67 / 30 30 40 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 81 70 80 52 67 / 30 20 40 20 5
TEMPLE, TX 82 73 82 52 70 / 20 20 30 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 83 64 83 47 69 / 20 20 10 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON WILL EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
REGION...ARRIVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1248 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE BIG QUESTION THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS WHETHER OR NOT
REMNANTS FROM A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY BORDERING OH/KY WILL
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND REACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS MIXED GUIDANCE WITHIN THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM GFS AND NAM. WHILE BOTH OFFER SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM...THE
DETAILS OF HOW PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12Z/8AM AND 18Z/2PM EVOLVES
TO GET TO THAT POINT DOES NOT MATCH WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED SO FAR.
THE 14Z/10AM HRRR GUIDANCE OFFERS A SOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
THE I-64 PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT CLEARLY HAS ITS ORIGIN
FROM THE CURRENT OH/KY CLUSTER. THE 13Z/9AM RUN HAD A SOLUTION
THAT HAD A LESSER AMOUNT OF PRECIP PROGRESSING JUST NORTH OF THIS
REGION. THE BRAND-NEW-AS-I-AM TYPING 15Z/11AM HRRR GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF A LITTLE COMPARED TO THE 14Z/10AM GUIDANCE WITH
PRECIPITATION JUST BARELY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BULLS-EYE OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
CHANGING...THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME REMNANT OF THE
OH/KY SYSTEM MAKES IT AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN WV HAS NOT CHANGED.
THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REFLECT A 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE I-64 REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR ABOUT
A THREE HOUR WINDOW DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FORECAST ADJUSTMENT INCLUDES AN INCREASE IN EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA INTO
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS. THIS AREA IS ALREADY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE
EARLIER EXPECTED HIGHS...SO HAVE INCREASED HIGHS BY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES ACCORDINGLY.
AS OF 950 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND RH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF IN/OH/KY. THIS ACTIVITY IS TAKING AN ALMOST
EASTERLY PATH...AND IF SURVIVES ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE EAST COAST
RIDGE...COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO OR VERY
NEAR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MID-
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z/8AM HRRR SUGGESTS SUCH A SCENARIO.
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1021 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER FLORIDA AND EXTENDED INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WAS BRINGING
MILD AIR UP FROM THE SOUTH...PROVIDING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH ABOVE SEASONAL WARMTH.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED FROM THE MASON-DIXON WESTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WAS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM PITTSBURGH TO
KANSAS CITY.
FOR TODAY OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BASK IN THE WARMTH COURTESY OF
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE SURFACE
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL INCH ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TODAY ARRIVING
ALONG OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER BY SUNSET. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO THE AREA BACKDOOR STYLE...HAVING MORE OF A SOUTHWARD
EXTENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE WINDS
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND ACCELERATING EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE COURTESY OF THE LEVEL BARRIER JET. FRONT WILL
THEN PROVIDE A PATH FOR ANY UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WHICH DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SENSIBLE TREND
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
ENHANCING THE SHOWER THREAT UPSTREAM OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE FELT THAT THE MODELS WERE OVERDONE WITH QPF...ALTHOUGH
CAN`T RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF GETTING BRUSHED BY ORGANIZED DEEPER
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN MOVING
EAST INTO WV/PA. ATTM ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND FAVORED THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AIR MASS STAYS MILD UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER
70S IN THE EAST.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
USED THE ENS MOS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONT
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THEN TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY THIS TIME WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW.
WILL LEAN TOWARD WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS A WESTERN TRACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/2AM THURSDAY. AFTER
THIS TIME WE WILL START TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IS PATCHY MVFR
CIGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE HEADING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE
NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z/8AM THURSDAY WITH INCREASED COVERAGE
OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MVFR VSBYS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE BY 18Z/2PM THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE WEST
CANNOT BE RULE OUT DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND BE NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GREATEST AREA OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTH WITH WARM FRONT.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE AN ORGANIZED LINE OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR. BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AN INITIAL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF A CENTRAL
U.S. UPPER LOW. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1259 PM EDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON WILL EVER SO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
REGION...ARRIVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1248 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE BIG QUESTION THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS WHETHER OR NOT
REMNANTS FROM A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY BORDERING OH/KY WILL
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND REACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS MIXED GUIDANCE WITHIN THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z/8AM GFS AND NAM. WHILE BOTH OFFER SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH BETWEEN 18Z/2PM AND 00Z/8PM...THE
DETAILS OF HOW PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12Z/8AM AND 18Z/2PM EVOLVES
TO GET TO THAT POINT DOES NOT MATCH WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED SO FAR.
THE 14Z/10AM HRRR GUIDANCE OFFERS A SOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
THE I-64 PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT CLEARLY HAS ITS ORIGIN
FROM THE CURRENT OH/KY CLUSTER. THE 13Z/9AM RUN HAD A SOLUTION
THAT HAD A LESSER AMOUNT OF PRECIP PROGRESSING JUST NORTH OF THIS
REGION. THE BRAND-NEW-AS-I-AM TYPING 15Z/11AM HRRR GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF A LITTLE COMPARED TO THE 14Z/10AM GUIDANCE WITH
PRECIPITAITON JUST BARELY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BULLS-EYE OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
CHANGING...THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME REMNANT OF THE
OH/KY SYSTEM MAKES IT AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN WV HAS NOT CHANGED.
THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REFLECT A 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE I-64 REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR ABOUT
A THREE HOUR WINDOW DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FORECAST ADJUSTMENT INCLUDES AN INREASE IN EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA INTO
NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS. THIS AREA IS ALREADY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE
EARLIER EXPECTED HIGHS...SO HAVE INCREASED HIGHS BY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES ACCORDINGLY.
AS OF 950 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND RH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF IN/OH/KY. THIS ACTIVITY IS TAKING AN ALMOST
EASTERLY PATH...AND IF SURVIVES ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE EAST COAST
RIDGE...COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO OR VERY
NEAR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MID-
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z/8AM HRRR SUGGESTS SUCH A SCENARIO.
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1021 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER FLORIDA AND EXTENDED INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WAS BRINGING
MILD AIR UP FROM THE SOUTH...PROVIDING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH ABOVE SEASONAL WARMTH.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED FROM THE MASON-DIXON WESTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WAS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM PITTSBURGH TO
KANSAS CITY.
FOR TODAY OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BASK IN THE WARMTH COURTESY OF
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE SURFACE
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL INCH ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TODAY ARRIVING
ALONG OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER BY SUNSET. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO THE AREA BACKDOOR STYLE...HAVING MORE OF A SOUTHWARD
EXTENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE WINDS
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND ACCELERATING EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE COURTESY OF THE LEVEL BARRIER JET. FRONT WILL
THEN PROVIDE A PATH FOR ANY UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WHICH DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SENSIBLE TREND
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WILL BE FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
ENHANCING THE SHOWER THREAT UPSTREAM OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. PLAYED HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY CLOSE TO THE ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THE STRENGHT OF THE RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE FELT THAT THE MODELS WERE OVERDONE WITH QPF...ALTHOUGH CAN`T
RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF GETTING BRUSHED BY ORGANIZED DEEPER
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN MOVING
EAST INTO WV/PA. ATTM ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND FAVORED THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AIR MASS STAYS MILD UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER
70S IN THE EAST.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SLIDE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
USED THE ENS MOS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER
50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONT
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THEN TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY THIS TIME WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW.
WILL LEAN TOWARD WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS A WESTERN TRACK
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CIGS/VBSYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF VALID
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE I-64 CORRIDOR
TOWARD 00Z THU...AND WILL LIKELY BACKDOOR AS FAR SOUTH AS KDAN ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
DRIFTING BACK NORTH THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE WEST...THEN COME MORE FROM
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BACKDOORS DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THINK WINDS AT LYNCHBURG WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY...AND OUT OF THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT ROANOKE AND POSSIBLY DANVILLE. WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS...KBLF AND VCNTY SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z/8AM
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING BACK NORTH
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT MAY TRANSLATE INTO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT FOR KBLF/KLWB AND POINTS NORTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LCL MVFR CONDITIONS.
BY FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR...LOCALIZED AND BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AN INITIAL TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FRONT WHICH CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STORM TRACK SUGGESTS PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF RAIN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1031 AM PDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO UNTIL THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONSIDERABLE SHOWERY AND POSSIBLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
OF ANY WEAK THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE WILL BE FRIDAY. FOLLOWING
ALL THE EXPECTED UPCOMING WEEKEND WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATES TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AS THE
SOMEWHAT COOL AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF A CAP AT 600MB PER KOTX MORNING SOUNDING, SUPPORTS THEIR
FORMATION. THAT AND A FEW RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR DEPICT SUCH A
SCENARIO BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z TODAY. /PELATTI
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: MINIMUM CHANGES MADE. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST AND THICKENING A BIT, ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE RIDGE, OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CUMULUS SHOULD APPEAR IN THE MIX AS WELL WITH MINOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROWN IN. REGARDLESS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. /PELATTI
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 56 34 58 39 53 35 / 20 20 0 50 40 20
COEUR D`ALENE 56 33 56 38 52 35 / 20 20 0 50 50 20
PULLMAN 52 35 57 38 53 36 / 20 20 0 50 50 20
LEWISTON 60 38 63 43 59 40 / 10 10 10 20 40 20
COLVILLE 58 32 60 37 57 34 / 20 20 10 40 50 20
SANDPOINT 51 31 58 35 50 33 / 20 20 10 50 80 30
KELLOGG 51 33 58 35 49 33 / 20 20 10 50 70 40
MOSES LAKE 63 34 61 39 61 38 / 0 0 10 20 20 10
WENATCHEE 62 38 61 40 60 40 / 0 0 10 20 10 10
OMAK 62 34 60 35 59 36 / 0 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
921 AM PDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
TO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD
TO INCREASING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUSHING OVER THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL DIFFERENT CLOUD DECKS SCATTERED
ABOUT THE AREA...WITH FOG ACROSS SOME OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COAST RANGE VALLEYS WHERE SKIES CLEARED LAST
NIGHT. THESE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY. A HIGHER STRATUS DECK
REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE CASCADES WHERE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
WAS UPDATED TO ADD A MENTION OF THIS FOR THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING THE SKY COVER IN THE SHORT TERM BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH SKIES
INCREASINGLY TURNING TO A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND SHALLOW PORCORN CU
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE REMAINING CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOST
MODELS AGREE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE MID/LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY
ALONG THE COAST...AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND CASCADES. THE MORNING POP GRIDS WERE SPLIT INTO 3 HOUR
SEGMENTS TO TRY AND GET AT THIS TIMING BETTER...AND THE AFTERNOON 3
HOUR SEGMENTS WERE RETAINED. MEANWHILE...SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER NEAR
PASS LEVEL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 4
INCH RANGE FOR ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD SO WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS
APPEAR UNLIKELY.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH MORE WET AND SHOWERY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS GREAT IF
YOU LIKE WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER. /NEUMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PRECIPITATION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE CASCADES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THE REMNANTS OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. FREEZING LEVEL ON THE
00Z SALEM SOUNDING WAS JUST OVER 4000 FT...WITH OBSERVATIONS AROUND
FREEZING TO ABOUT 3500 FT. THESE FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE NORTH OREGON CASCADE PASSES ARE DISSIPATING AND SHOULD BE GONE
SOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN.
FOR OTHER AREAS...A MIX OF CLEARING AND CLOUDS HANGING ON IN THE
VALLEY...AND ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS PUSHING INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BREAKS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM WEST OF
OF I-5...BUT CLOUDS ARE HANGING ON ALONG AND EAST OF I-5.
EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY ASIDE FROM SOME
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING BUT EXPECT A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS PUSHING IN ALONG WITH SOME SCRAWNY CUMULUS ONCE THE LOWER
STATUS AND FOG EASE.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OUT ALONG 140W PUSHES SE. THIS TROUGH MOVES IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL PUSH AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RELATIVELY LIGHTER
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO IMPACT
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR CASCADE PASS LEVELS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT QPF
SHOULD REMAIN MODEST ENOUGH THAT WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS APPEAR UNLIKELY
AT THIS POINT. THE S WA CASCADES WOULD BE FAVORED WITH THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY EVENING...AS SW FLOW AIDS OROGRAPHICS.
SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PASS BY IN WNW FLOW. THEN SW FLOW
TAKES OVER WHICH WILL DRIVE A SERIES OF WARM FRONTS THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. /KMD
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
ONSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SNOW LEVELS STILL NEAR
CASCADE PASS LEVEL...EXPECT ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE AREA
MIDDAY SUNDAY. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HIT THEIR FIRST 70+ DEGREE
DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS RIDGE BRINGS SUNNY SPRING WEATHER. /27
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A FEW LOCAL SITES ACROSS THE VALLEY INCLUDING KHIO AND
KMMV WILL SEE IFR STRATUS/FOG THROUGH 18-20Z. OVERALL EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LIFT AND BREAK UP AFTER 19Z AS DRIER N FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO DOMINATE. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER 12-14Z THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS 2000 TO 3000 FT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 19Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER. CULLEN/27
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER BENIGN ON COASTAL WATERS UNDER
WEAK PRES GRADIENTS THROUGH EARLY THU. WINDS REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS NEAR 6 FT AND SUBSIDING. WINDS WILL TURN S AND INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED MIDDAY THU THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN CONTINUING AT TIMES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE FRI OR SAT.
SEAS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD...AND WILL BE NEAR 9 TO 10 FT
FOR FRI AND SAT. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
833 AM PDT WED APR 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO UNTIL THE NEXT WET
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SHOWERY AND POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST THUNDER THREAT WILL BE FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Minor updates to add mention of isolated afternoon and evening
showers somewhat similar to what occurred yesterday as the
somewhat cool and slightly unstable airmass, despite the presence
of a cap at 600mb per KOTX morning sounding, supports their
formation. That and a few recent runs of the HRRR depict such a
scenario between 21Z and 03Z Today. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Expect occasional mid cloud ceilings of 9000-11000 ft
AGL across the Idaho Panhandle...Palouse and Spokane region this
morning. Though clouds will be increasing also across the Upper
Columbia Basin...any ceilings are expected to be cirrus.
Conditions will continue to remain VFR through at least Thursday
morning.bz
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 34 58 39 53 35 / 20 20 0 50 40 20
Coeur d`Alene 56 33 56 38 52 35 / 20 20 0 50 50 20
Pullman 52 35 57 38 53 36 / 20 20 0 50 50 20
Lewiston 60 38 63 43 59 40 / 10 10 10 20 40 20
Colville 58 32 60 37 57 34 / 20 20 10 40 50 20
Sandpoint 51 31 58 35 50 33 / 20 20 10 50 80 30
Kellogg 51 33 58 35 49 33 / 20 20 10 50 70 40
Moses Lake 63 34 61 39 61 38 / 0 0 10 20 20 10
Wenatchee 62 38 61 40 60 40 / 0 0 10 20 10 10
Omak 62 34 60 35 59 36 / 0 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1257 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO REDUCE/DELAY THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 02.12Z NAM
BULLISH ON THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS
SOME MAJOR DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER WI AT THIS TIME WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. NAM HAS NEARLY DOUBLE THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AS THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS...AND THE 02.12Z GFS EVEN
LESS THAN RAP. WILL NEED TO GET FORCING OF THE STRENGTH OF THE
NAM TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVEL AIR MASS IN DRY EASTERLY FLOW...JUST
DONT BELIEVE THE NAM INTENSITY IS ON TARGET.
NO CHANGES TO BE MADE TO WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. ICING
AND SLEET BAND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA SEEMS LIKE IT
COULD PRODUCE MORE IMPACT PER LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOCUS THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO STRONG STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
BRINING HEAVY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF THE AREA.
POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY PULLING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE 285-305 K SURFACES. THE LIFT
ISN/T STRONG BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
SOLUTION TONIGHT PRODUCING A BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
CONFINE PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS. IF
FORECAST MODELS TREND TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTIONS. WILL HOLD OF ON AN ADVISORY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OCCURRING TONIGHT. IF IT DOES DEVELOP...A
GLAZING OF ICE WOULD BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK
INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY WITH THE 500 MB LOW TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM IS
DRAWING ABUNDANT WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION WITH A STRONG
WARM LAYER ADVECTING NORTHWARD. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START
OFF AS RAIN...BUT THEN COLDER AIR WILL START MOVING ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OR
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW OVER THESE AREAS. ANY DEVIATION ON THE THE LOW
TRACK WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. FURTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN WELL INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MAKING A SWITCH OVER SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS TO AROUND 1/2 INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS ALONG WITH SLEET AND POSSIBLY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6
TO 8 INCHES. LOCATIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOK TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND 1/2 INCH. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDER SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BECOME VERY
INTENSE THURSDAY NIGHT. A VERY IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS
CIRCULATION NOTED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS LOW WITH NEGATIVE
EPV LOCATED JUST ABOVE THIS CIRCULATION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HEAVY
SNOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE BATTLING THE
WARM LAYER FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE COLDER AIR FINALLY WRAPS INTO THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
SATURDAY. A RATHER NICE WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH
SUNNY SKIES EXPECT ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A FEW WEAK TROUGHS
LOOK TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
VFR PERIOD THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WILL
BRING A DOWNWARD TREND TO CIGS/VSBYS. WHILE THE TAFS HAVE -SHRA
FOR THE EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...THIS COULD BE A LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE AND AIR TEMPERATURES AT THAT TIME. A
DRIZZLY DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT...A FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY FOR THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER
AT DODGE.
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM FOR THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY ACROSS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI.
SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRECIPITATION WILL GO FROM A WINTRY MIX TO
RAIN. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME RISES ON RIVER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI COULD OCCUR. THAT
SAID...THE STORM TRACK IS NOT CERTAIN AS THIS TIME...AND ANY
CHANGES WILL SHIFT WHERE THE RAIN-SNOW LINE LIES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-095.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
MAIN FORECAST DISCUSSION ABOVE...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER
SCENARIO. THIS RESULTS IN DELAYING ANY MVFR VISIBILITIES TO PAST
12Z...AND KEEPING THE CEILINGS MOSTLY VFR. PERHAPS TOWARDS 09Z
TONIGHT RST WILL DEVELOP A MVFR CEILING.
EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS NORTH.
CURRENTLY HAVE 10-15 KT...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20 KT OR SO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014
DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT...A FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY FOR THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER
AT DODGE.
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM FOR THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY ACROSS MN INTO NORTHWEST WI.
SOUTH OF THIS BAND...PRECIPITATION WILL GO FROM A WINTRY MIX TO
RAIN. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME RISES ON RIVER
SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI COULD OCCUR. THAT
SAID...THE STORM TRACK IS NOT CERTAIN AS THIS TIME...AND ANY
CHANGES WILL SHIFT WHERE THE RAIN-SNOW LINE LIES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-095.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ008.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP