Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/01/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
630 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
EXPANDED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AGAIN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE STORM EXITS TO THE EAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION BAND MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SPOTTER IN COARSEGOLD REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM
WITH PEA-SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND...AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION
NETWORK GRAPHIC SHOWS NUMEROUS IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD-GROUND STRIKES.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO EXTEND THE AREA OF
THUNDER SOUTHWARD INTO FRESNO...KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...AND
CHANGED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT CONTINUE JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT WANT TO DROP THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS PREMATURELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH 05Z WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED. MVFR
DUE TO CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS IN THE
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z WED OVER MUCH OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS. BLOWING DUST...WITH VISIBILITY
AT OR BELOW A MILE AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...
WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND IN
KERN COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SIERRA CREST THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 327 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE-LADEN STORM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP
ROLLING THROUGH STANISLAUS COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO MERCED
COUNTY. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TRYING TO MOISTEN-UP...
PRECIP WILL BEGIN FALLING BEFORE 500 PM PDT. MOREOVER...WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO SANTA CRUZ/SANTA CLARA...THE CHANCES
OF WET WEATHER HITTING MERCED ARE VERY GOOD. AHEAD OF TODAY/S COLD
FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WILL EXPECT WINDS
TO WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH THE 35 TO 45 MPH SPEED THRESHOLD FOR
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE LACK OF RAIN OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL MAKE BLOW DUST A BIG PROBLEM FROM RIDGECREST TO
ROSAMOND AND BORON. THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL HAS THE WINDS
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL AT AROUND 200 PM PDT AND ENDING AT
AROUND 10 PM PDT TONIGHT.
BEYOND THE WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM...RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE DISTRICT TONIGHT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC
MODELS TIME THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO NEAR 400 PM PDT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CURRENT ESTIMATES
HAVE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE VALLEY
AND 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.
WHILE SNOW MAY NOT STICK TO THE ROAD OVER TEJON PASS...THE
GRAPEVINE WAS INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLICK
ROADS MAKING DRIVING DIFFICULT.
AFTER TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT...THE MAIN AREA OF ENERGY MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING 500MB TEMP OF
MINUS 28 DEG-C PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK WIND
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO TEMPORARY DRY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER
STORM. WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SEE THE LAST OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS
WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE CURRENT LONGER RANGE
PROGS SHOW THE THIRD STORM MOVING FURTHER NORTH...SOME OF ITS
ENERGY COULD REACH THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY...WILL PLACE A MENTION
OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AND ACROSS
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE NEXT STORM AND
FINALIZE THIS NEXT STORM AFTERWARD.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 03-31 89:1966 50:1967 58:1986 31:1905
KFAT 04-01 90:1966 49:1982 56:1939 32:1975
KFAT 04-02 87:1985 56:1907 57:2011 34:1982
KBFL 03-31 90:2003 50:1925 60:1969 32:1908
KBFL 04-01 88:2011 54:1998 62:1900 32:1917
KBFL 04-02 90:1985 57:1981 60:2002 35:1999
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE WESTERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089-091/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS /CAZ098-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
416 PM PDT Mon Mar 31 2014
.Synopsis...
A cold Pacific storm will bring more precipitation to Interior
NorCal into Wednesday with snow levels lowering into the foothills
tonight into Tuesday. There is the threat of some Valley/Delta
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening and again late Tuesday. On
Thursday and Friday, another weaker, warmer system moves through the
region and may bring some light amounts of precipitation.
&&
.Discussion...
Satellite imagery shows negative tilt upper level trough moving
inland, with cold convective clouds at the core. Surface cold
front is passing through the area spreading showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Thunderstorms continuing in
the Valley, Delta and foothills are possible through this evening.
Low level shear behind the front by early this eveing looks
relatively strong in the Valley south of Red Bluff, so there is
stil lsome potential for stronger, rotating storms in the post-
frontal environment. Latest HRRR model is backing off some,
showing a surface CAPE bullseye around 350 J/KG, centered between
Red Bluff and Willows. There remains the possibility of some
isolated severe thunderstorms late in the day into the early
evening. Small hail with these cold storms should be the main
threat, and has already been reported by several spotter. There
could be a brief period of heavy rain and gusty winds. Still can
not rule out the possibility of a few funnel clouds and even an
isolated tornado isn`t out of the question. Convective activity
should wind down by late evening.
Breezy southerly winds in the Valley will gradually decrease this
evening and overnight.
Winter Storm Warnings continue for the mountains and advisory for
low snow in the foothills/Burney Basin is still on track. Snow
should peak over the coastal mountains this afternoon, this
evening over the Sierra. Snow totals of up to around a foot are
possible in the mountains and locally higher over high mountain
peaks are possible. Chain restrictions are already up above 5000 feet on
I80. Snow levels will drop to below 3000 feet by Tuesday morning. 1
to 3 inches of wet snow are possible down to 2500 feet.
Convective threat will continue across the region Tuesday afternoon,
and appears there will be a conditional severe weather threat once
again for the Central Valley depending on any localized surface
heating as forecast soundings show increasing vertical wind shear
(speed and directional). Limiting factor will be ongoing
widespread convection with mid- level cold pool aloft overhead
(-30C to -32C at 500 mbs), which may greatly limit this potential.
Upper trough forecast to shift south of the region later Tuesday
night into Wednesday with a decreasing threat of showers across
NorCal. Short-wave ridging forecast to briefly move over NorCal
Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of a much weaker trough moving
in for later Thursday. This next system is not very wet, and is
not as cool, so impact should be limited.
&&
.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
Trough possibly exiting off to the east on Friday for some
possible showers especially over the mountains. Although models
still differ in the track and strength of the trough. Upper level
ridge building over the Eastern Pacific and into Northern
California over the weekend and into early next week bringing
warmer daytime temperatures and dry conditions. High temperatures
in the low to mid 60s will rise into the mid to upper 70s in the
Valley on Sunday and Monday and for the mountains 30s and 40s on
Friday and climbing into the 50s and 60s on Sunday on Monday. CPC
8-14 day outlook for equal chance to above normal precipitation
over Northern California with another possible system moving into
Northern California mid to late next week.
&&
.Aviation...
Deteriorating conditions as a cold front pushes through the area,
bringing precipitation and gusty winds through this evening. For
the TAF sites in the Central Valley, MVFR conditions with areas
of IFR through about 3z tonight. Isold Thunderstorms also
possible. Southerly surface winds to 25kts with local gusts up to
35 kts until 03z. Over mountains, widespread MVFR/IFR with areas
of LIFR conditions and snow levels lowering to around 2500ft.
Southwest surface wind gusts up to 50 kts possible. -DVC
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter storm warning until 11 am pdt tuesday west slope northern
sierra nevada...western plumas county/lassen park.
winter storm warning until 5 am pdt tuesday above 3500 feet in
the mountains southwestern shasta county to northern lake
county...shasta lake area / northern shasta county.
winter weather advisory until 5 am pdt tuesday burney basin /
eastern shasta county.
winter weather advisory from 8 pm this evening to 11 am pdt
tuesday above 2500 feet in the clear lake/southern lake county...
motherlode...northeast foothills/sacramento valley.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1053 AM PDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HILLS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:08 AM PDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. THERE WERE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEFORE
SUNRISE BUT THOSE HAVE ENDED FOR THE MOST PART. SKIES ARE PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. THERE WAS SOME DENSE FOG EARLIER IN THE SONOMA
VALLEYS BUT THAT`S LIFTING AS WELL. THE 12Z KOAK SOUNDING IS
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AND GIVEN CURRENT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE CLOUDS START TO BILLOW UP OVER THE HILLS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH
AFTERNOON WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN/INLAND
HILLS AND THAT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD FORECAST. NAM AND HRRR MODELS
SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT CONVECTIVE QPF NEAR MOUNT HAMILTON LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THAT OFTEN OCCURS IN THESE TYPE OF PATTERNS. WILL
KEEP THE KMUX-88D SPINNING IN VCP 12 FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A PARTLY CLOUDY AND PLEASANT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON MONDAYS COLD FRONT AND 12Z MODELS
ARE STAYING CONSISTENT WITH LIGHT RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY BEFORE
NOON BUT THE MAIN RAIN BAND REALLY IMPACTING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE. THE STORM IS LOOKING GOOD ON SATELLITE RIGHT NOW
OUT NEAR 45N/140W WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND IMPLIED JET ENERGY.
SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE INHERITED FORECASTS AND NOT PLANNING MANY
CHANGES FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE. AFTER BRIEF PERIOD OF FRONTAL RAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT A SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIP.
THEN SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BECOME NUMEROUS LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS COLD CORE APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO WEDS MORNING FOR THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. MARCH GOING OUT
LIKE A LION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. RADAR INDICATES THESE SHOWERS ARE EITHER DISSIPATING OR
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT
ALL RAIN WILL END BY DAYBREAK AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS. SKIES ARE
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS. THE LOW LEVELS PROBABLY ARE NOT YET STABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT FOG FORMATION OUTSIDE THE ISOLATED NORTH BAY VALLEY
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK AND
THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. SOME CU
BUILDUPS ARE LIKELY OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND HILLS OF THE SF BAY AREA AS
FORECAST BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
AROUND 60...A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...CENTERED NEAR 45N/140W. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BRING
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ON THE HIGHER HILLS. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MAINLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A COLD UPPER LOW OFFSHORE
WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...EITHER TRACKING DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA BY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
FORECAST BY MOST MODELS...OR TRACKING OFFSHORE PARALLEL TO THE
COAST AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF THE LOW CENTER`S EXACT
TRACK...THE INSTABILITY GENERATED BY THIS COLD SYSTEM WILL
TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
SHEAR. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 FEET BY LATE MONDAY AFTER
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THEN AS LOW AS 3500 FEET FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS
SPREADS ACROSS OUR AREA. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE
EVEN LOWER SNOW LEVELS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. THE LATEST MODELS
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
OUR AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL HILLS.
SOMEWHAT LESSER RAIN TOTALS WOULD OCCUR IF THE LOW CENTER TRACKS
OFFSHORE AS FORECAST BY THE GFS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY IN
THE HILLS ABOVE 4000 FEET WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO
3500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S...AND ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S IN
THE HILLS.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO SUMMARIZE
THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...INCLUDING PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...COOL TEMPS...AND SNOW IN THE
HILLS.
A SYSTEM DUE IN LATER IN THE WEEK IS LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH
EACH NEW MODEL RUN. THE GFS AND GEM MODELS BOTH WASH THIS SYSTEM
OUT COMPLETELY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
STILL BRINGS SOME PRECIP TO COASTAL AREAS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT EVEN THIS MODEL IS TRENDING DRIER. POPS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED FURTHER
GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT SUNDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BRING ABOUT SCT/BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERALL...EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN ABOVE
3KFT...YET CANNOT RULE OUT CIGS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.
CLOUDS INCREASE AND WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...GENERALLY VFR...CIGS SCT-BKN035 BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 12 TO 15KT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...GENERALLY SIMILAR TO SFO...CIGS SLIGHTLY
LOWER AT SCT-BKN025 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...GENERALLYVFR...CIGS SCT-BKN035 BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL APPROACH 12 KT THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: RGASS
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
908 AM PDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HILLS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:08 AM PDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. THERE WERE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEFORE
SUNRISE BUT THOSE HAVE ENDED FOR THE MOST PART. SKIES ARE PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. THERE WAS SOME DENSE FOG EARLIER IN THE SONOMA
VALLEYS BUT THAT`S LIFTING AS WELL. THE 12Z KOAK SOUNDING IS
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AND GIVEN CURRENT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECT WE`LL
SEE CLOUDS START TO BILLOW UP OVER THE HILLS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH
AFTERNOON WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN/INLAND
HILLS AND THAT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD FORECAST. NAM AND HRRR MODELS
SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT CONVECTIVE QPF NEAR MOUNT HAMILTON LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THAT OFTEN OCCURS IN THESE TYPE OF PATTERNS. WILL
KEEP THE KMUX-88D SPINNING IN VCP 12 FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A PARTLY CLOUDY AND PLEASANT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON MONDAYS COLD FRONT AND 12Z MODELS
ARE STAYING CONSISTENT WITH LIGHT RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY BEFORE
NOON BUT THE MAIN RAIN BAND REALLY IMPACTING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE. THE STORM IS LOOKING GOOD ON SATELLITE RIGHT NOW
OUT NEAR 45N/140W WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND IMPLIED JET ENERGY.
SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE INHERITED FORECASTS AND NOT PLANNING MANY
CHANGES FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE. AFTER BRIEF PERIOD OF FRONTAL RAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT A SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIP.
THEN SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BECOME NUMEROUS LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS COLD CORE APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO WEDS MORNING FOR THE MONTEREY BAY REGION. MARCH GOING OUT
LIKE A LION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. RADAR INDICATES THESE SHOWERS ARE EITHER DISSIPATING OR
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT
ALL RAIN WILL END BY DAYBREAK AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS. SKIES ARE
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE NORTH
BAY VALLEYS. THE LOW LEVELS PROBABLY ARE NOT YET STABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT FOG FORMATION OUTSIDE THE ISOLATED NORTH BAY VALLEY
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK AND
THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. SOME CU
BUILDUPS ARE LIKELY OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND HILLS OF THE SF BAY AREA AS
FORECAST BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
AROUND 60...A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...CENTERED NEAR 45N/140W. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BRING
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW ON THE HIGHER HILLS. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MAINLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A COLD UPPER LOW OFFSHORE
WILL SLIDE GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...EITHER TRACKING DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE SF BAY AREA BY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
FORECAST BY MOST MODELS...OR TRACKING OFFSHORE PARALLEL TO THE
COAST AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF THE LOW CENTER`S EXACT
TRACK...THE INSTABILITY GENERATED BY THIS COLD SYSTEM WILL
TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
SHEAR. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4000 FEET BY LATE MONDAY AFTER
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THEN AS LOW AS 3500 FEET FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS
SPREADS ACROSS OUR AREA. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE
EVEN LOWER SNOW LEVELS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. THE LATEST MODELS
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
OUR AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL HILLS.
SOMEWHAT LESSER RAIN TOTALS WOULD OCCUR IF THE LOW CENTER TRACKS
OFFSHORE AS FORECAST BY THE GFS. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY IN
THE HILLS ABOVE 4000 FEET WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO
3500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S...AND ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S IN
THE HILLS.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO SUMMARIZE
THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...INCLUDING PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...COOL TEMPS...AND SNOW IN THE
HILLS.
A SYSTEM DUE IN LATER IN THE WEEK IS LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH
EACH NEW MODEL RUN. THE GFS AND GEM MODELS BOTH WASH THIS SYSTEM
OUT COMPLETELY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
STILL BRINGS SOME PRECIP TO COASTAL AREAS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT EVEN THIS MODEL IS TRENDING DRIER. POPS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT MAY NEED TO BE REDUCED FURTHER
GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:46 AM PDT SUNDAY...COOL UNSTABLE AIR IS
FILTERING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. SKIES
WILL BECOME VFR TODAY AS SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF. MOISTURE AND
LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
LOCAL RIDGE LINES LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR...WITH CUMULUS POPPING UP CREATING CIGS
SCT-BKN035 BY MID MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR SCT-BKN035 BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: LARRY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
922 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ARE SHOWING MAIN PRECIP
BAND SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS A REASONABLE GRASP OF THE SITUATION, SNOW RATES SHOULD
DIMINISH FOR THE TAHOE BASIN AND NORTH OF I-80 AFTER ABOUT 6-7Z,
WITH HEAVY SNOWS CONTINUING IN MONO CO UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THIS IS ALL CONSISTENT WITH ONGOING FORECAST AND WARNINGS,
SO NO CHANGES PLANNED. I DID CONSIDER DROPPING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR CAZ071 (NORTH OF I-80) BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON GUIDANCE AND RADAR
TRENDS. THOSE COULD PUT DOWN SOME QUICK ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT
ROADWAYS.
SPILLOVER INTO THE RENO/CARSON CITY AREAS HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE
THUS FAR, BUT WE`RE NOW GETTING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWERING SNOW LEVELS MAY YIELD LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FOOTHILL AREAS AT/ABOVE 5000 FT TONIGHT. CS
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LATE SEASON
WINTER STORM MOVES ACROSS THE SIERRA. A COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR AND WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST AS MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL ALSO MOVE ONSHORE AND ENHANCE THE MOISTURE BAND. SNOW
LEVELS EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST NEAR TAHOE HAVE REMAINED NEAR
6500-7000 FEET BUT SHOULD DROP TO LAKE LEVEL BEFORE 5 PM. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST A PERIOD OF 6-8
HOURS, AND TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS SNOW
BEGINS ACCUMULATING ON PAVED SURFACES. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. FARTHER NORTH INTO LASSEN COUNTY, ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW HAS ALREADY ACCUMULATED ABOVE 5500 FEET, THE HEAVIER SNOW IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO END SOONER, SO THE ADVISORY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.
LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWER BANDS MAY CONTINUE LATER TONIGHT, DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN NORTH CENTRAL CA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FOR MONO COUNTY, SNOW WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING, SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA AND PROBABLY REACHING THE MAMMOTH
LAKES VICINITY BY 8 PM. BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES, WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE, SO THE ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. SINCE ALL OF THE SNOW WILL FALL IN A COMPRESSED TIME
PERIOD AND THE BAND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT, SNOW TOTALS
NEAR THE CREST MAY TOP OUT CLOSER TO 16 INCHES INSTEAD OF THE
ORIGINAL 20 INCH PROJECTION. HOWEVER, IMPACTS WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE WARNING IN PLACE TONIGHT.
FOR WESTERN NV, THE RAIN SHADOW HAS PERSISTED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL HAVE
INDICATED RAPID SPILLOVER INTO THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY BETWEEN 4
AND 5 PM, WITH UP TO 6 HOURS OF NEARLY STEADY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS, RAINFALL COULD STILL ADD UP TO BETWEEN
0.25 AND 0.50 INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
WILL FALL DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIP
COULD END AS SNOW BELOW 5000 FEET, BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN VALLEYS. ABOVE 5000 FEET, A COUPLE
INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE, BUT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL IN
DOUGLAS COUNTY AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ONGOING HEAVIER PRECIP BAND. THIS OCCURRED WITH ONE OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS SEASON SO THIS WOULD NEED TO BE MONITORED LATER
TONIGHT.
ALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE RAIN
AND SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR SUNDAY, A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN WEST CENTRAL NV EAST OF HIGHWAY 95,
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
MODERATE WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MJD
A COLDER LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH 700MB NEAR -10C. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO MOST VALLEY
FLOORS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THAT BEING SAID, THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEVADA, LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AND LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. THIS IS MAINLY
BECAUSE THE LOW IS TRYING TO SPLIT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND DRIVE THE
JET AND DYNAMICS WELL INTO SOUTHERN CA.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE SIERRA LATE MONDAY
AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CA. THE 500MB
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED, WHICH IS IS NOT
NECESSARILY GOOD FOR SPILLOVER. BUT, WE SHOULD BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SPILLOVER IF THE JET REMAINS SOUTH OF MONO COUNTY.
BY TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING UNDER THE COLD POOL. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY
STRONG DUE TO THE INCREASED SOLAR HEATING. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE, BECAUSE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA MAY
CREATE SOME LOW-LEVEL FORCING THAT COULD INCREASE PRECIPITATION
RATES IN THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. HOON
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE LARGELY DIVERGED WITH THE GFS
PRESENTING A SPLIT SYSTEM WILL VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION; THE EC
SHOWS A MORE CONSOLIDATED FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL OREGON
AND DECENT PRECIP ALONG THE SIERRA. THEREFORE, VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE EXISTING FORECAST FAVORING A BLENDED APPROACH WITH 30-40%
CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE SIERRA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK AROUND TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH MODEST COLD AIR ALOFT AT 700MB AND AMPLE
CLOUD COVER. HOPEFULLY SOLUTIONS WILL BEGIN TO CONVERGE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER DETAILS. BOYD
AVIATION...
A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED BY 00Z AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN,
WITH ABOUT 6-8 HOURS OF CIGS/VSBY BELOW LANDING MINIMUMS AT
KTVL/KTRK THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT. FOR KMMH, THE
WORST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM 03Z-12Z FROM THIS SAME SNOW BAND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE.
FOR WESTERN NV INCLUDING KRNO-KCXP, RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND 00Z,
PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBY AT TIMES FOR 4-6 HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS
PRECIP MAY BRIEFLY END AS SNOW, BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED ON RUNWAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. MJD
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET
FOR CAZ071.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ073.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1106 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2014
DENSE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INHIBITING DEEPER MIXING SO FAR
THIS MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS SLOW TO MATERIALIZE.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE DENSER CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ERODING AND BREAKING UP AFTER 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE
THIS BECOMES REALITY...DEEPER MIXING WILL QUICKLY DRIVE DOWN 50
PLUS KNOTS OF WIND ALOFT...WHICH MORNING SOUNDING AND PROFILERS
ALL INDICATED. ONCE WINDS GET MOVING IN NORTHERN ARIZONA...THE
BLOWING DUST UP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN...SO
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS. WILL EVALUATE SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER TODAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2014
03Z HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW STRETCHED FROM THE PANHANDLE OF IDAHO TO THE CENTRAL NV/UT
BORDER...THEN BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR SHOWING
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN. WINDS BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHENING UNDER
THIS FEATURE WHICH IS KEEPING THE FRONT WELL TO THE WEST. PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS ALSO WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE PINNED TO THE FRONT.
KGJT RAOB STILL SHOWED WELL BELOW PWAT AT .20. THIS MOISTURE IS
WELL ELEVATED AND WITH A DEEP MIXED LAYER EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND SYSTEM THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A
VERY WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. INVERTED V PROFILES WILL ONLY
ENHANCE WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AS VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH VERY BROAD ASCENT IN
PLACE. WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER ARE STILL THE STRONGEST IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA...WHICH IS WHERE CLOUDS LOOK THE THINNEST. CURRENT
ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST IN THE 45
TO 55 MPH RANGE TODAY. I DID ADD A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR 4
CORNERS AREA WHERE LIMITED VISIBILITY WAS OBSERVED DURING THE LAST
WIND EVENT. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO BE A THREAT
UNTIL THE FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST CWA BY MID AFTERNOON.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SEEMS IMPLIED BY LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CO/UT BORDER. CLOUDS/VIRGA MAY
HAMPER FULL HEATING BUT DECIDED TO PUSH SOME TEMPERATURES UP
TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL BE WORKING EASTWARD AND ASCENT FROM THE
PASSING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE NEAR THE
FRONT HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR POPPING SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGH PLATEAUS...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE GUSTS IN PART DUE
TO STORM MOTIONS NEAR 50 MPH. CONSIDERED THIS AREAS FOR WIND ADVZY
AS WELL BUT WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY CONFIDENCE
STILL NOT THERE. GUSTY WINDS STILL EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS
SUBSIDENCE FROM BEHIND THE QUICKLY MOVING TROF MOVES IN AND COLD
ADVECTION ENHANCES MOMENTUM X-FER DOWNWARD. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THEN NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL BE
SUPPLEMENTED BY THE FRONTAL LIFTING/INSTABILITY/AND ASCENT THROUGH
THE EVENING AND SNOW RATES WILL BE PICKING UP. SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY
DENSE BUT BLOWING WILL BE LIKELY AS GUSTS OVER 40MPH CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE WINTER HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK
AND THOUGH SNOW LEVEL REACH THE VALLEYS...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE
1-3 INCH RANGE. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE NIGHT CLEARS
ALL BUT THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHICS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN
FOR MONDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS RIDGING TEMPORARILY
BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF DEVELOPING TO THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2014
DIRTY SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC STORM GENERATING SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING
ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH WILL INCREASE TUESDAY. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE PACIFIC LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. EXTENDED MODEL AGREEMENT NOT TERRIFIC WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
KEPT POPS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT GIVEN MODEL SPREAD HARD
TO SPECIFY WHERE AND WHEN.
LOTS OF SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. EC POINTS TO
A DRIER FRIDAY BENEATH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHILE GFS INDICATED A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED. BY SATURDAY...BOTH
SOLUTIONS INDICATED ANOTHER MODERATELY DEEP TROUGH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA FOR CONTINUED ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER.
EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT SUN MAR 30 2014
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK SPEEDS EXCEEDING 50 KTS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
WITH UP TO 60 KTS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL ARRIVE AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON AS DENSE CLOUD COVER ERODES
AND ALLOWS FOR DEEPER MIXING. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL LOWER
VISIBILITY INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS AT TIMES. RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS
BY THIS EVENING AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. MOUNTAIN PEAKS WILL
BECOME OBSCURED AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ003-006-007-009-
011-017>022.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ004-010-013.
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-025-027>029.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
219 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT WORKS ONSHORE ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
THE LOW EMERGES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN
TRACKS VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH
INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTING A COASTAL FRONT AND FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT RESULTING IN CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST LIFT EAST OF NYC WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS LI AND CT. THIS
WILL BE ON TOP OF THE TWO INCHES MOST LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED. LATEST HRRR INDICATES CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE
DELMARVA AND NJ WORKS NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SEVERAL RIVER LOCATIONS ACROSS NE NJ ARE AT OR JUST OVER BANK
FULL. THIS IS BEING HANDLED WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN VA/MD AS
IT WORK NORTH...BUT FOR THE TIME THERE WILL BE A BREAK WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW LEVELS TO CREST AND BEGIN FALL.
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
LOWS FOR TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF NAM12...MET...AND MAV GUIDANCE
AND INCREASED BY TWO DEGREES...WITHOUT MUCH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGE ANTICIPATED...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LIKELY POPS CONTINUE DURING SUN MORNING AS LULL IN THE PCPN IS
EXPECTED UNTIL THE DEFORMATION BAND MOVES INTO THE AREA. OCNL
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH A COASTAL FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COMING INTO PLAY
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRACKS
TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THE AREA WILL GET MORE OF A NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS CONVEY A DECREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN TOWARDS 0.7-0.8
INCH BY SUNDAY EVENING. MID LEVELS DRY...ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF
SATURATED LAYER APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN
AS OPPOSED TO DZ UNTIL LATE AFTN. HIGHS WERE TAKEN FROM THE
GMOS...MET...AND MAV GUIDANCE WITH GREATER WEIGHT WITH THE GMOS
AND ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.
ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE SECOND ROUND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW...BUT THIS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN THE FIRST ROUND. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...THERE COULD BE SOME WINTRY MIX OF SLEET
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...BUT THERE IS HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS. THIS DEPENDS ON HOW FAST COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN. LOWS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12/GMOS/MET/MAV AND ARE FORECAST TO BE
MID TO UPPER 30S MOST LOCATIONS AND LOWER 30S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
THE AREA WILL FINALLY BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL REALLY DECREASE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH
A RIDGING TREND LATER IN THE DAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER. THESE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 0.5 INCH MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INCREASING ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY WINTRY MIX
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC TO CHANGE BACK TO RAIN. THIS TAPERS OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 AND USED THE ECS MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO GO AWRY WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH
EXITING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CUTOFF WITH THE AXIS
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
LATE TUE NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT OVER THE AREA ON WED AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. A BROAD RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN US AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST. UNCERTAINTY IN
THE UPPER FLOW TAKES SHAPE AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL AREA AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES TRACKS OFF THE NJ COAST THIS AFTN...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS E OF
THE REGION THRU MON.
IFR OR LOWER THRU AT LEAST 10Z MON. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR THRU
12-14Z SUN. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE NEAR TERM...HOWEVER
VSBY WILL REMAIN RESTRICTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD BY -RA AND BR. ISOLD
TSTMS POSSIBLE THRU AROUND 8Z.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THRU 12Z...THEN INCREASE AFT 00Z AS THEY
BACK TO THE N. THE STRONG N WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU MON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...IFR LIKELY. N WINDS 20-30 KT.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER...MAINLY IN THE MRNG. N WINDS 20-30 KT.
.TUE-WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.THU...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH EASTERLY FETCH AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. MORE SOUTHEAST FLOW
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WARM FRONT SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTH WILL
KEEP THE HIGHER SEAS. SCA GUSTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.
A LITTLE LULL IN WINDS SUNDAY MORNING BUT HIGHER WINDS WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW. SCA WILL REMAIN ON THE OCEAN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL BECOME PRESENT ON OTHER WATERS AS WELL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN
50 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING MON NIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SCA SEAS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TUE
MORNING. TRANQUIL CONDS RETURN THEREAFTER WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS LI AND SRN CT AS CONVECTION WORKS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SUN NIGHT
AS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FORMS TO THE NW OF THE
LOW TRACK. THE MAIN IMPACT AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NE NJ
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE
NJ...AND SOUTHERN CT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH A NEW MOON...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND.
IN ADDITION TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE
SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE DURING
HIGH TIDES SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LOCALIZED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ330-335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST
TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES SHOULD THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH ITS COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THAT DAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
THEN START BUILDING EAST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT, WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OFF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AS WELL. RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER TO THE
EAST TROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE LOWS PULL AWAY, THE LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONGEST LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MOVE IN BY DAYBREAK. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD.
WE MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CARBON/MONROE,
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT, AS WE EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO BEGIN AS COLDER
AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER IN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
QUESTION IS HOW COLD WILL IT GET, AND HOW DEEP THE BELOW FREEZING
LAYER WILL BE. THE GFS KEEPS A WARM LAYER ABOVE 925 MB THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD, WHICH WOULD INDICATE MORE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THE NAM AND EVEN THE RUC SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
THE ENTIRE LAYER DROPPING BELOW FREEZING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE
SNOW. THERE HAS BEEN SNOW REPORTED TO THE WEST, WHICH DOES GIVE SOME
CREDENCE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. WE WILL GO WITH A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION OF SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WE BRING RAIN,
SNOW, SLEET WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
FOR THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES ACROSS PORTIONS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ALL RAIN FROM THE PHILLY
METRO/CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AREA SOUTHWARD. SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA WHICH COULD
BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES, ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN.
A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
N MONDAY, THE MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS WILL PULL OUT TO SEA, AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER DAYBREAK. ALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER WITH BY MID-LATE
MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
BREEZY DAY, WITH GUSTS AT LEAST 25-30 MPH.
A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF WAS USED FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT MOST LEVELS THAN THE
WRF-NMMB. WHILE THEY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM,
THEY DO DEPART WITH WED`S SOLUTION WHERE WE WILL SIDE WITH THE
HEMISPHERIC MODELS. THE LONG TERM HAS A VERY WELCOME TO APRIL LOOK
TO IT WITH A STALLING FRONT AND NOT TOO MANY DRY DAYS. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS A MORE ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH HAS ADDED WEDNESDAY TO THE WET MIXTURE.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS OUR CWA AND THE RIDGE AXIS IS
STILL TO OUR WEST KEEPING SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPS SIDED
TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE.
ON TUESDAY THE MODELS ARE PASSING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGING.
NET EFFECT WOULD BE SOME MID OR MORE LIKELY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
DURING THE DAY. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL TOO FAR WEST TO
TRIGGER ANY PCPN IN OUR CWA. THERE IS A NICE REBOUND AT 850MB WITH
TEMPS, WITH 925MB TEMPS LAGGING. POTENTIAL FOR MID 60S FROM THE FALL
LINE SEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS, THE ONLY LOCATIONS
WE WENT THAT HIGH WAS INLAND WITHIN DELMARVA. LOOKS LIKE A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP SO, SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREA HIGH TEMPS. OVERALL WE WERE HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE.
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WHILE THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY ALOFT, MOISTURE
BELOW 700MB IS FORECAST TO BE LACKING. THE LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WAS RECONFIGURED MORE TOWARD THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA GIVEN THEY
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE PCPN REACH THEM BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MIN TEMPS, WEST ESPECIALLY, ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE
BANKING ON MORE CLOUDS EARLY.
WEDNESDAY HAS TAKEN A TURN FOR THE WETTER VS YESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS.
WITH THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND HIGH PRESSURE MORE GEOGRAPHICALLY
DISPLACED, AN IMPULSE FROM THE ARKLATEX IS ABLE TO PASS ACROSS OUR
CWA POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS. THERE ARE STILL GEOGRAPHICAL (N
VS S) AND SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES (WED DAY VS WED NGT), SO FOR NOW
WE WERE RATHER GENERIC IN ADDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT GOING WITH THE MAJORITY MODELING SOLUTION, WE HAVE A
RELATIVELY LULL (LOWER) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CHANCES THEN INCREASE
AGAIN THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA PEAKING ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SOUTH WITH LOWER POPS ON FRIDAY. TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MODERATE. GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION MAX TEMP
CONFIDENCE IN PARTICULAR IS LESS THAN AVERAGE.
THE TIMING ON THE COLD FRONTAL INDUCED PCPN IS STILL CENTERED ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN OUR POPS INCREASE AGAIN. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER, BUT WANT TO SEE MORE TIMING
CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING. THE MENTION OF POPS FOR SATURDAY IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS/CAN GGEM AND ECMWF TIMING AS TO
HOW QUICKLY WILL THE FRONT MOVE OFFSHORE. THEN MAYBE SUNDAY WE CAN
FINALLY HAVE A DRY WEEKEND DAY, WELL AT LEAST WE WILL START OUR
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THAT WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SITES VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT EVERYONE
TO RETURN TO IFR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AS PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE TAF SITES. AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT, WITH AN EVENTUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WINDS COULD GUST 25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS A SLOWLY
STALLING COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
STALL NEAR THE AREA WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT. THIS WOULD
GIVE US PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS, MOST LIKELY TIMES ARE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY STARTING AT 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ONLY ZONE LEFT
OUT OF THE GALE WARNING IS THE SANDY HOOD TO MANASQUAN ZONE AS
CONFIDENCE ON GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS IS LOWER.
35-40 KNOTS WINDS ARE FORECAST AROUND 2,000 FEET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY, AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CREATE GALE FORCE GUSTS. THE WINDS WILL DROP BACK BELOW GALE FORCE
MONDAY MORNING, BUT LIKELY REMAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ON DELAWARE BAY. SEAS MIGHT STILL
BE AT OR ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. CHANCES DECREASE AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN.
FRIDAY...THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH FRIDAY AND NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN AN APPROACHING FRONT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND TIGHTENS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MILLSTONE RIVER AT BLACKWELLS
MILLS AS THAT RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IT/S RISE TO A FOOT OR
SO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BEFORE CRESTING LATE TONIGHT. NEAR BANKFULL
RISES ARE EXPECTED ON LOWER PORTIONS OF THE PASSAIC RIVER OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS, WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION AND FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED IF
WARRANTED.
MOST SMALLER STREAMS IN THE AREA HAVE RESPONDED WITH MODERATE RISES
FROM THE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN SINCE SATURDAY. BASED
ON OBSERVED GAGE RESPONSE, IT APPEARS THIS RAIN HAS FULLY SATISFIED
BASIN MOISTURE DEFICIENCIES SINCE EVERY AREA OF RAIN THAT NOW MOVES
OVER THE SMALL WATERSHED BASINS INDUCES AN IMPRESSIVE RESPONSE AT
THE ASSOCIATED GAGE.
AN AREA OF IMPRESSIVE RAIN IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WILL BE MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO THE PHILA METRO AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THIS RAIN MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING, AND ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY. THE
FLOOD WATCH THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM MONDAY.
THE MAIN STEM DELAWARE RIVER, AS WELL AS THE LEHIGH AND SCHUYLKILL
RIVERS, WILL EXPERIENCE RISES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO IN THE 2 TO 4
FOOT RANGE, BUT CREST LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER
THREE-QUARTERS BANKFULL.
THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER WILL EXPERIENCE UP TO A THREE-QUARTER
BANKFULL RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THIS RISE WILL THEN WORK
ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SHORES OF BOTH CECIL AND HARFORD COUNTIES.
RESIDENTS OF CECIL AND HARFORD COUNTY WILL SEE THIS RISE BY MID WEEK
BUT ANY FLOODING THAT MIGHT OCCUR SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
071-101>106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-015.
DE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-451>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...MIKETTA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
204 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The calming center of surface high pressure will slowly
overspread the Southeast through the night tonight. There are a
few complications regarding tonight`s minimum temperature
forecast. For one, it is somewhat unclear whether winds will go
completely calm, though they should be very light mostly
everywhere by dawn. Additionally, just about every model is
handling the upstream cirrus poorly. The HRRR has the best handle,
but doesn`t run through the night. This forecast will essentially
extrapolate the HRRR cirrus field eastward through the night. Due
to the clouds and uncertain wind forecast, have trended up with
overnight lows. Expect around 40 degrees to be common away from
the coast (near 50 along the coast), with spotty locations
reaching the upper 30s. The duration in the 30s, the clouds, and
wind forecast would all argue a very hostile environment for frost
to develop. IF frost were to occur under the current forecast
conditions it would be extremely patchy, short lived, and confined
to southeast Alabama.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
An upper level ridge will be in place through this period as surface
high pressure builds east of the area. This will be a dry pattern
with no chance for rain and moderating temperatures. The lower
humidity will also allow for a rather large diurnal swing in
temperatures with chilly mornings and warm afternoons. Lows Monday
night will be in the lower to mid 40s, while Tuesday night will only
dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs will be in the upper 70s
on Monday and reach the lower to mid 80s on Tuesday.
.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The period will start out dry and warm with the upper level ridge
axis just east of the area and a surface high off the Southeast U.S.
coast ridging westward along the Gulf Coast. Highs will be in the
lower 80s for most areas on Wednesday and Thursday and mornings will
be milder than earlier in the week. The upper ridge will be shunted
eastward from Friday onward as energy over the Great Plains tries to
make eastward progress. The associated frontal system will edge
close enough to the region to tap into increasing Gulf moisture and
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms each day from Friday
through the weekend. Rain chances will be highest to the northwest
and taper off to the southeast. Temperatures will remain above
normal despite the increase in moisture.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday] Breezy northwest winds will continue through
the afternoon, with a calming trend occurring through the night,
and light winds expected tomorrow. Other than a passing cirrus
deck through the night, unlimited VFR is expected.
&&
.Marine...
High pressure to the west of the waters will move east of the area
on Monday and then remain off the Southeast U.S. coast for several
days. Offshore winds and seas have dropped below headline criteria
this afternoon and this trend will continue tonight. Winds will veer
around to onshore by Monday afternoon and light generally south to
southeast winds will be the rule. A slight increase in winds speeds
and seas is expected across the Florida Panhandle waters for
Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Although relative humidities tomorrow will be quite low, and at time
below critical levels, fuel moisture and/or duration criteria will
not be met anywhere in the Tri-State region. Dispersions will be
lower than recent days as high pressure moves overhead, calming
winds a bit. Critical relative humidities are not anticipated
Tuesday through the end of the week.
&&
.Hydrology...
Minor flooding is forecast to begin along the Choctawhatchee River
at Caryville and Bruce early next week. Elsewhere, several other
rivers in the CWA remain in action stage, but no flooding is
forecast. The next chance for rain is on Friday.
For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 39 78 41 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 49 73 52 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 42 77 46 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 39 77 45 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 40 80 43 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 39 78 41 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 48 71 49 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
Gulf.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
854 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
842 PM CDT
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH REQUIRED A FEW FORECAST UPDATES. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM. THAT
COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM A SPEED MAX PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IL
HELPED FORCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINKING THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION THINKING VERY FEW
PLACES WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN THE LARGE TEMP DEWPOINT
SPREADS. ORD AND MDW BOTH FEATURE LOW 60 TEMPS OVER 30 DEWPOINTS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND IT CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
JEE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
346 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH COULD INCLUDE THUNDER OR EVEN FROZEN PRECIP
IN SOME LOCATIONS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE EVEN COME PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK...AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE SOME LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE REACHED 70
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...OVERALL WARMING TEMPS ARE EITHER NOW
HOLDING STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING AND IS DUE TO THICKER CLOUD
COVER FINALLY MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS HAVE REALLY RAMPED OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING OUT AHEAD
OF SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST...WHILE
MAIN SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SPORADIC
WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED HEAR IN THE NEAR TERM AND
WOULD EXPECT THIS HIGHER GUSTS TO LIKELY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WITH OVERALL PREVAILING WINDS/GUSTS NOT LIKELY
BEING QUITE AS HIGH. SHOWERS WHICH HAVE BEEN APPROACHING THE CWA
ALL DAY HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AS THEY APPROACHED A REALLY DRY
AIRMASS...WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
JUST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. A CONTINUED DRY TREND IS
MORE LIKELY HERE IN THE NEAR TERM WITH LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE NOW
LIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING AS WAA PERSISTS...AND WHILE BETTER
LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS AND SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT APPROACH THE CWA. A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY IN THE 20S IN SOME
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME AND DONT FEEL THAT EVERYTHING
WILL COME TOGETHER TO ALLOW ANY PREVAILING PRECIP TO DEVELOP...AND
ESPECIALLY WHEN ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE CWA IS STILL BE
OFFSET WITH MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
30S FOR LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY IS APPEARING QUIET WITH LARGE VORT MAX LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA...A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED AS HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT THE 40S...AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING THE WESTERN CONUS. EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVES AND
WAA SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO START
SPREADING NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
VARIABILITY WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP...WHICH WILL
BE ALL RAIN...REMAINS AT THIS TIME AND SO HAVE LIMITED CHANCES
POPS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH
WAA PUSH TO PROVIDE PRECIP TO REALLY SPREAD NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH CHANCES PERSISTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LLJ REALLY BECOMES FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. APPROACHING
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND A MORE MOIST AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTH
WILL KEEP THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL RAIN...BUT WITH SOME
CONCERN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS COULD HOVER AROUND THE LOW 30S.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOTE MADE MENTION OF
IT...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. ALSO DURING
THIS TIME...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO INCH CLOSER TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN CWA. THIS COINCIDING WITH A DECENT LLJ...HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.
AS THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY...LLJ WILL VEER
AND A PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
DRIER PERIOD DURING THE DAY...BEFORE PRECIP MOVES BACK TOWARDS THE
CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME SLIGHT VARIABILITY WITH
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.
OVERALL EXTENT OF INSTABILITY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH...THE
TIME OF DAY THAT THIS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA SHOULD HELP LIMIT
OVERALL INTENSITY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD INCLUDING A FEW 30+ KT GUSTS.
* 55-60 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 2000 FT BETWEEN 02Z-09Z.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA/SPRINKLES THIS EVE.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A POTENT LATE SPRING SYSTEM CENTERED IN CENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS EVE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ADVECTION
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER LATE THIS EVE AS
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN TURN WEST SOUTHWEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING IS EXPECTED TO
BE 08Z- 09Z AT MOST TAF SITES. THE GUST MAGNITUDE MAY ACTUALLY
INCREASE IN THE HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DESPITE THE TIME
OF DAY IN WHICH IT OCCURS. GUSTS AROUND 40 KT ARE PRESENTLY BEING
OBSERVED IN CENTRAL IA BEHIND THE FRONT.
WHILE THERE ARE SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVE IN
IA...THESE WILL RUN INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS AS THEY PROGRESS EAST
AND SHOULD FALL APART. SOME 3000-6000 FT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVE THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS IN
THE LOW-LEVEL JET LAYER...BUT THESE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.
SPEAKING OF LOW-LEVEL JET...WIND SPEEDS WITHIN THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 60 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT. DUE TO THE HIGH SURFACE
SPEEDS BEING MAINTAINED...BELIEVE IT WILL NOT BE TRUE LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION REMAINING SOUTH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH 04Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHIFT TO SOUTH
SOUTHWEST.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 55-60 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AT
TIMES TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IF A SHOWER OCCURS THIS EVE IT WOULD BE
BRIEF AND CIG WOULD REMAIN VFR.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...EAST FLOW. RAIN LIKELY WITH IFR LIKELY ESPECIALLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY...EAST FLOW. RAIN LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT.
IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW DURING THE
NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR LIKELY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
211 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO
TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN BUT THE WARM AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING A SHARP INVERSION IN
PLACE MITIGATING WIND GUSTS...WITH WINDS OF AROUND 40 KT JUST A FEW
HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
TONIGHT TURNING WINDS SOUTHWEST THEN WEST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
BETTER MIXING WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN
BUT SPEEDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE EASING SOMEWHAT. DESPITE
THIS...WINDS TO 30 KT ARE STILL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SOME 35 KT
GALES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SET UP LOOKS MARGINAL ENOUGH TO KEEP FREQUENT GALES FROM
OCCURRING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE HEADLINES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE IL/IN WATERS HOWEVER. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TO EASE BUT ANOTHER LOW WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A TROUGH AXIS/WARM FRONT
WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS SOUTH.
THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BETTER ORGANIZE AND TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR OR
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SOME TIME FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH THIS
TIMING MAY CHANGE A BIT. THIS WILL BRING A SHIFT FROM AN EASTERLY
WIND TO SOME VARIATION OF A WESTERLY WIND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW
TRACKS INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOES LOOK TO CROSS THE LAKE OVER
THE WEEKEND BRINGING A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
848 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 848 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
01z/8pm surface analysis shows cold front extending from eastern Iowa
into central Missouri. Thin line of convection has developed along
the front and is progressing eastward toward the Mississippi
River: however, latest HRRR still suggests it will dissipate as it
pushes into west-central Illinois later this evening. Surface obs
show only a narrow ribbon of moisture return from the Gulf
immediately along the front, with dewpoints quickly dropping off
into the upper 30s/lower 40s further east into western Illinois.
Given limited moisture and latest radar imagery beginning to show
a weakening trend, will maintain just low chance POPs west of the
I-55 corridor through midnight. Further east, will go with a dry
forecast for the remainder of the KILX CWA. Zone update has
already been issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 647 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Strong southerly winds will persist through the evening before a
cold front passes toward midnight. Area observations still show
winds gusting over 30kt, but think the gusts will subside into the
20 to 25kt range after sunset. 00z KILX upper air sounding showed
a very strong low-level jet just off the surface, with winds of
nearly 50kt at 2000ft aloft. With NAM indicating at least 40-45kt
925mb winds continuing until FROPA, have included low-level wind
shear at all terminals this evening. Front currently bisecting
Iowa will push eastward, initially accompanied by a broken line of
showers/thunder. Radar echoes are currently blossoming along the
boundary, but all high-res models show convection dissipating
before it reaches central Illinois. Will therefore only mention
VCSH. Satellite timing tools show front passing KPIA by 07z, then
further east to KCMI by 09z. Once front exits, skies will become
mostly clear and gusty westerly winds will prevail overnight into
Tuesday morning.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Strong southerly winds gusts occurring about as expected today
ahead of an approaching cold front. Also, as anticipated, the
pre-frontal precipitation has been minimal thus far. Main near
term forecast concern remains the winds and how much precipitation
will occur until frontal passage later tonight. Then, attention
turns to the extended wet period that should occur from Tuesday
night into Friday.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday: Broken pre-frontal band of
showers and a few thunderstorms has continued to struggle to
maintain itself as it has pushed east today. However, the cold
front associated with the current storm system is still well to
the west, extending from low pressure centered over southwest
Minnesota into central Texas. Recent satellite loops have shown a
CU field beginning to fire along the front, so until the front
clears the area later tonight a stray shower can`t be ruled out.
However, as these clouds have a strong diurnal component to them,
would not be surprised to see these clouds and any precipitation
associated with them dying off within a few hours of sunset.
Then, after a brief break in the precipitation risk on Tuesday, the
well advertised prolonged precipitation event is still on track
for Tuesday night into Friday. While it will not be raining the
entire time, there are enough minor model differences to preclude
tying to add a dry period at this time.
From Tuesday night into Thursday the forecast area will lie
between strong upper troffing over eastern Canada and the
Southwest United States. The forcing between these two features
will consist primarily of jet streak induced upper divergence
/mid-level frontogenesis, as well as periodically strong
isentropic ascent across a stout baroclinic/frontal zone. Still
some model disagreement with respect to where the surface front
will lie for much of the period, which will be the dividing line
between elevated and surface based convection. The latest
consensus has the the surface frontal zone wavering between the
I-70 and I-72 corridor. This consensus is a little further north
than yesterday, so have pushed the thunder risk north across much
of the forecast area for most of the period, especially since
mid-level lapse rates are steep even well north of the surface
front.
The remnants of the southwest U.S. upper low, and associated
surface low, will push across the area Thursday night into Friday.
This could result in a period of more robust convection, although
the current timing of its passage is not terribly favorable for
severe weather.
The temperature forecast from Tuesday-Friday will be quite tricky
due to the strong thermal gradient that is apt to be across the
area. Our current forecast will exhibit a north to south thermal
gradient of approximately 20 degrees for much of the period. A
major temperature forecast bust is possible if the models continue
to shift the ultimate location of the surface front.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Monday: Quieter, cooler than normal,
weather is expected for much of the weekend in the wake of the
extended wet period. Another strong system may be in our vicinity
for the beginning of next week. However, model agreement in the
details is quite poor, and have only carried Slight Chance PoPs
Sunday night into Monday with its possible arrival.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
109 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
321 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WITH ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM HAVE BEEN WITH THE LINGERING AND SLOW
MOVING LOW STRATUS STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AS WELL
AS RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTING A SLOW SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT TO THE STRATUS BUT WITH
SOME PROGRESS BEING MADE. ALTHOUGH...THIS PROGRESS IS SLOW AND
COINCIDING WITH FURTHER DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD DECK. MADE EDITS THIS AFTERNOON TO SLOW
THE CLEARING TREND THROUGH 00Z AND WITH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE CLEARING CONTINUES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. DID DROP HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES IN SOME PLACES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS CLOUD
COVER...WITH TEMPS STAYING IN THE UPPER 30S OR AROUND 40 UNDER THE
CLOUD COVER AND LOW TO MID 40S FOR AREAS WHICH HAVE OBSERVED MORE
SUNSHINE WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH...ALL LOCATIONS
WILL OBSERVE FALLING TEMPS THIS EVENING AS THE DEPARTING CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONLY AIDS IN A COLD NIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND DESPITE WAA BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT...TEMPS ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA.
MID/UPPER 20S ARE LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...OUTSIDE OF THE
CITY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLE DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S.
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED WAA WILL HELP A
WARMER AIRMASS TO SPREAD OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 60. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX
TEMPS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOR AREAS IN
CHICAGO AND NORTHWARD...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER
A MILD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT WAA WILL PROVIDE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONSHORE FLOW NOT ANTICIPATED
SO MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO OBSERVE THIS WARMTH. WILL HAVE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF VORT MAX AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. GUIDANCE
IN AGREEMENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
PRIMARILY FOR THE WESTERN CWA. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING...NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH POPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO LOW CHANCE/CHANCE POPS. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH REGARDS TO
OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIP. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AS WELL AS MOISTURE INCREASING
OUT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT
BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE...AND EXPECT POPS TO LIKELY CHANGE DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH SUCCESSIVE FORECASTS. STILL NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
WITH THUNDER DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...AND SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES
DURING THIS TIME KEEPING CHANCE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY...WHICH AT THIS TIME IS APPEARING RATHER WEAK.
WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR AN EXPECTED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THIS NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL FEATURES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH...TIMING AND EVOLUTION
AGREEMENT IS LACKING WHICH WILL BE KEY WITH PRECIP TYPE...WHICH
COULD STILL BE OF FROZEN FORM VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* WINDS CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH MOST OF THE DAY.
* LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE GONE CALM UNDER A RIDGE PASSING
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR VSBYS HAVE STAYED UP AS A
RESULT OF DECENT SPREADS BETWEEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. THE
PREFERRED WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OUT LATER THIS MORNING. MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
DEVELOPS BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BUT WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF SOUTH AND
DO NOT DEVELOP A WESTERLY COMPONENT. AGREE WITH EARLIER THINKING
REGARDING LACK OF AN EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE AT TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE SOME COOL ONSHORE COMPONENT BETWEEN THE
TERMINALS AND THE WATERFRONT.
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A COOL SURFACE LAYER...BUT STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ABOVE THAT SURFACE LAYER.
WILL MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN ALL ELEMENTS TODAY...THOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE BREEZE IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
* MEDIUM IN DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS TONIGHT.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...NEAR DUE SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHC OF TSRA DURING THE EVE AND A SLGT CHC
OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...EAST FLOW WITH RAIN AND MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...EAST FLOW WITH CHC OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE IFR.
FRIDAY...CHC OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. SLGT CHC OF RAIN/SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
251 PM CDT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA CONTINUES UP AROUND 20S OUT AHEAD OF AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS FLOW IS BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGH...AND AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS...I HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE EXPECTATION THAT
WAVES ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 4 FOOT MARK. THESE WINDS WILL ABATE
THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUAL
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. OVERALL...THIS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING...LIKELY TO AROUND 30 KT. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT WARMER
AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN A STABLE MARINE
LAYER...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES FOR GALES.
HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER WINDS NEARLY GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE LAKE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAKE AIM ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...AROUND THURSDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF SOME ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO THE END OF THE UP COMING
WEEK.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 822 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Have made adjustments to sky grids to push clearing a bit faster
than current package. Otherwise going forecast looks good.
Surface ridge moving into forecast area attm and winds have
decoupled despite significant northwest winds above the boundary layer
associated with strengthening system over the central
Appalachians. This flow above developing inversion continues to
erode cloud cover and advect drier air into Illinois from
northwest to southeast. Trapped moisture under the inversion may
lead to some patchy ground fog. Attm, it appears that lowest vsbys
should be around 3SM so will leave out of grids/zones but keep it
in eastern TAF sites. Latest Lamp guidance in good agreement with
ongoing forecast for tonight`s lows.
Barker
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Surface ridge is oriented northeast to southwest near the Illinois
River late this evening. Clear skies and light winds continue.
Still somewhat concerned with potential for ground fog later
tonight under almost perfect radiational cooling conditions,
particularly in areas that had precipitation last night. Will
introduce IFR vsbys late tonight given that they are beginning to
show a downward trend. KDEC had a bit more drying time this
afternoon than KCMI and will keep lowest vsbys MVFR there. Will
also introduce MVFR vsbys at KSPI. Even though the temp-dew point
spread is higher, several airports nearby (IJX, 3LF, TAZ) are
already indicating reduced vsbys.
Southerly flow develops on the back side of the ridge as it moves
east of the area Sunday. Winds will likely become gusty,
particularly across western terminals during the afternoon. Some
Cirrus will be likely during the afternoon as the next system
develops over the central high plains.
Barker
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
The progressive weather pattern will provide active weather next
week as several storm systems affect Illinois. The latter half of
this weekend looks pleasant with plenty of sunshine pushing temps
above normal. However, by Monday afternoon the first system will
bring chances of rain, and the onset of a return to cooler
conditions. Heavier rains in the Wed to Thur time frame could
accumulate between 1-2" in some locations. Localized flooding may
develop.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night.
Low clouds have been keeping high temps generally below forecast
highs this afternoon. A narrow break in the cloud cover allowed
Peoria to spike up about 10 degrees in a couple hours, and create
a large temperature gradient over short distances in our forecast
area. The RAP and HRRR layer RH indicate that some clearing should
continue west of I-57 between 23z and 03z. Lows tonight will be
dependent on cloud cover. Areas east of I-57 may remain cloudy
until just after midnight as NE surface winds continue to drag low-
level moisture from the Great Lakes into eastern IL. Even a few
hours of clearing later tonight should allow eastern areas to cool
off to near guidance lows, especially with surface dewpoints
dipping into the upper 20s in many locations.
Sunday will see mid level temps climb 5 to 7C during the day as an
upper level ridge axis advances into eastern IL by 00z/7pm Monday.
Near full sunshine should combine with increasing south winds to
push highs about 10 to 15 deg above normal (60s), which will be a
welcome taste of Spring. An tightening pressure gradient ahead of
the next system will keep south winds up in the 10 to 20 mph range
even Sunday night. So despite clear skies Sunday night, south
winds will keep a mixed boundary layer and allow lows to be in the
upper 40s west and around 40 east.
LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday.
Increasing clouds on Monday will not prohibit highs from climbing
well into the 60s for one more day, as south-southeast winds
increase into the 25 to 35 mph range. By Monday afternoon, a
parent low pressure system will advance from eastern Nebraska to
southeastern Minn, as a cold front reaches the western border of
IL by 00z/7pm Monday. Pre-frontal storms will have a high amount
of wind shear and storm relative helicity available, along with
steep lapse rates, but a limited amount of moisture. Forecast
soundings show the best instability may be at or above 750 mb, so
any thunderstorms will be elevated to begin. Due the strong jet
dynamics and wind shear with this system, some of the storms could
begin rotating and produce hail and strong winds Monday afternoon
and evening ahead of the cold front.
Showers and storms should end from west to east by midnight in the
post-frontal subsidence and dry air intrusion. Clouds will likely
clear out behind the line of precip, so lows in the NW could dip
below freezing, while southeast areas remain in the low 40s.
The brief pocket of cold air is forecast to brush across N IL late
Mon night and Tues morning, which will keep highs about 10-15 deg
colder than Monday. High temps will range from around 50 near
Galesburg to around 60 by Lawrenceville.
Return flow behind the cooler high pressure will bring increasing
moisture Tuesday night, with a few showers possible before sunrise
on Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances will increase along and south
of a warm front that is expected to develop directly across
central IL from west to east. Storm chances will be higher in the
warm sector roughly south of a line from Rushville to Champaign.
Instability may have a better chance of being based closer to the
surface as dewpoints climb into the 50s Wed night south of the
warm front, which will be close to overnight low temps.
Precipitable water values are expected to climb over an inch Wed
night through Thursday as low pressure tracks northeast along the
warm front. Locally heavy rain may occur in any thunderstorms,
with training of storms over the same area also boosting rainfall
amounts. Localized flooding could develop in low areas, as
rainfall amounts possibly reach between 1 and 2 inches by Thursday
afternoon.
A wide range of temps will occur across C IL from north to south
from Tues night through Thursday as the warm front lingers across
the middle of the area. The temp spreads could be 20 to 25 degrees
from north to south for highs and lows.
There is a spread of solutions for how the surface and upper level
systems progress from after Thursday. The GFS lingers the upper
trough farther west Thurs night, then brings a secondary surface
low and another round of rain showers across IL on Friday. The
ECMWF is more progressive and drys out the air column after the
low on Thursday. So low chance and slight chance PoPs were
included Thurs night and Friday to account for a slower
progression.
There is some agreement that another push of cold air will keep
temps below normal for Friday and Saturday, with Saturday looking
dry at this time.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
129 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP
NICELY ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. EVEN WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE MID 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
NO SIG ISSUES TO WORRY ABOUT FOR THE SHORT TERM AS RAIN/SNOW THAT
HAS FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WAS NEARLY
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO CLEARING TONIGHT AND
HOW WARM WE GET ON SUNDAY.
BY IN LARGE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH REMAINING
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF HENRY/PUTNAM AND ALLEN COUNTIES IN
OHIO. SFC LOW WAS OVER NE TENNESSEE AT 18Z AND SLOWLY DEEPENING
WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND IT. THIS WILL KEEP
SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY EAST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE IN THE WEST AND
NORTH WITH NAM AND RUC VARYING ON HANDLING OF CLEARING. RUC 925/850
MB RH PLOT HAVE HANDLED THINGS WELL AND LINGER LOW CLOUDS INTO LATE
EVENING WITH NAM MUCH QUICKER ERODING MSTR. WITH VIS SAT SHOWING
HINTS AT SOME THIN SPOTS STARTING TO APPEAR SO HAVE TRIED TO BLEND
THE 2 MODELS WHICH STILL BRINGS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE
EVENING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S DESPITE COLDEST AIR WITH THE
SYSTEM ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION AND WAA UNDERWAY LATER TONIGHT.
SOME OF THIS WAA WILL BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY AS LOTS OF SUNSHINE
ALLOWS FOR MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 900 MB AND MAYBE A BIT HIGHER
YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 50S. WOULDN`T BE ENTIRELY SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
UPR 50S TO NEAR 60 IN FAR W/SW AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
VERY FEW CHANGES TO OVERALL IDEA IN LONG TERM PERIOD. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
AND A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
RATHER WET PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL.
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 30S EAST UNDER RIDGE AXIS TO
UPPER 30S WEST WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF RIDGE WILL
BE INCREASING. THIS WARMING SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A LARGE DIURNAL
SWING ON MONDAY AS STRONG MIXING DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ALOFT IS
ALLOWED TO MIX TO SURFACE. SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AS WELL TO HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN AFTERNOON MAY TEMPER
WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING ON HOW THICK CLOUD CANOPY IS AND
TIMING OF IT. STILL EXPECT 60S ALL AREAS WITH RUN AT MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE AREA IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING.
NEXT OF MANY SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS BUT
STRONGEST FORCING TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO MAIN LOW. WARMEST TEMPS OF
THE DAY LIKELY IN MORNING BEFORE FROPA BUT DRYING PROFILES TUE
AFTERNOON SUGGEST SUN COULD ALLOW FOR SOME REBOUND SIMILAR TO WHAT
SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCED FRIDAY.
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR REMAINDER OF LONG TERM WITH
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVES RIPPLING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
THUS A CONTINUATION OF BROAD HIGH CHANCE POP CONTINUES WITH FURTHER
INCREASE LIKELY AS TIME NEARS. WITH INCREASING PWATS AND THETA E
AIR...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL PLAUSIBLE.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD LIKELY NEAR NORMAL SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL NORTH BUT IF FRONT WAVERS NORTH OR SOUTH...SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WOULD BE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
ELONGATE SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FM SE CANADA SWWD INTO THE LWR MS
VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE ERN OH VALLEY ON MON. LT WINDS AND
CLR SKIES WILL RESULT AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY/MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...T
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
640 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WAS OVER
NORTHEAST NE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS IT REACHED THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE
DRY/CLEAR SLOT OVER MUCH OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW N/S
ORIENTED CU FIELD JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST STARTING
TO DEVELOP AROUND 19Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN WI BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING.
STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING THEN TURN WESTERLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER NIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE LOW WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THE
STRONGER PRESSURE RISES WILL ALSO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT SO WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY.
MESO MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY IN SHOWING A SECOND LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE DRY
SLOT OVER CENTRAL IOWA...ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE MODELS BRING THE
PRECIPITATION EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE CU DEVELOPMENT
ONGOING OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED CAPES. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE
LINE. IF THIS OCCURS THEN THE STRONGER STORMS MAY HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONSIDERING THE STRONG
ENVIRONMENT WINDS AND DEEP/DRY SUB CLOUD BASE LAYER. LOW WEB BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7KFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME SUB SEVERE HAIL.
THE THREAT OF THE STRONGER STORMS IS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SINCE THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS IT
NEARS THE MISSISSIPPI.
COLDER AIR POURING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD LATE TONIGHT AND LIFT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY BASED ON
MIXING UP TO 900MB.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN WITH STRONG SYSTEM MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ONE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY...AN INTENSE DIGGING UPPER LOW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
LOOPS SWIRLING OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS HAS A 130 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR
CUMULUS...INDICATIVE OF A VERY COLD POCKET ALOFT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE IN
SOUTHEAST CO. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE WITH AN EXCELLENT FEED OFF
THE WESTERN GULF. WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MO SETTING
UP AN IDEAL UPGLIDE OF THE DEEPENING MOISTURE...AND ALLOWING FOR RAIN
TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER ALL THE CWA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. I WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH POPS WHICH HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT
SIGNAL FOR DAYS NOW. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN ON THURSDAY AS
THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THIS REGARD. COPIOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS TRENDING A BIT SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF TAKES THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
CYCLONE INTO EASTERN IA TO NORTHERN LAKE MI WHILE THE GFS HAS THE
LOW TRACKING INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA AND THEN TO NEAR CHICAGO.
EITHER SOLUTION OFFERS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME THE DEFORMATION ZONE
PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE DVN CWA.
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS TO
3 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. (WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE FROST IS PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE GROUND SO AS
TO ALLOW THE RAIN TO SOAK IN...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO ISSUES).
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY WITH THE WEEKEND DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WELL
ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY (ECMWF)...BUT
MUCH WEAKER (GFS). IF THE LATEST RUNS VERIFY THEN TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK MAY BE TOO WARM AND THE ALL BLEND WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK AWAY.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST MN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO LAKE
SUPERIOR BY TUE AM. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS 40 KTS. NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING INTO EASTERN IOWA THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING IN AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AM. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON TUE FROM
NORTHWEST AT 15-25 KTS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
144 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST...
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS DOWNEAST TO MATCH UP WITH
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THINK THE THREAT OF
ANY -FZRA ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST IS MINIMAL AT BEST SO REMOVED
FROM OVERNGHT FORECAST. REST IOF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRCAK.
ORGNL DISC: AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MAJOR MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL
PORTIONS OF THE NC/VA BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTH
TO THE SW COAST OF MAINE. THE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS STILL
DYNAMIC AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOWING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STARTING TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE
BEGINNING PROCESS OF BECOME COLD CORE. BY MRNG THE LOW MOVES NE TO
THE NJ COAST...PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS ERN MAINE INTO NRN MAINE.
PCPN WILL BE SNOW...WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ACROSS
THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND EAST CNTRL MAINE. AT THIS TIME ALL
MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW AT 500MB AND THE SFC LOW NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE BULK OF THE
PCPN MOVES EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE LOW DRIFTS NORTH ALONG
THE NJ COAST TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE UPPER LOW AND SFC
LOW WILL BE VERTICALLY STACKED. THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF SHOW A
NEW LOW IN THE ERN GULF OF MAINE THAT WILL BECOME THE NEW PRIMARY
LOW FOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARD NEW BRUNSWICK.
LOADED THE HRRR MIN TEMP FOR THE OVRNGT...GEM MAX TEMP FOR
TOMORROW. INTERPOLATED FROM MIN TO MAX FOR HRLY TEMPS. USED A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR HRLY DP/SKY/WND/POP. ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATERS.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
OVERRUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONT TO THE COAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HAVE BASED THE FORECAST
ON A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH WILL KEEP MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY
MIX WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE HELD WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EXPECT EXPECT A LIGHT WINTRY
MIX...WITH A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS. THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH WITH DECREASING RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST DOWNEAST TUESDAY WITH THE EXITING LOW WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND RELATIVELY
MILD WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
THEN BUILD IN BRINGING DRIER AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHETHER OR NOT A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA CAN MAINTAIN THE
DRY WEATHER. THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. IN THE FORECAST WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. CURRENTLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY MAJOR STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WHICH WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN THE VERY COLD
CONDITIONS WE HAVE HAD IN MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB...ALL OTHER SITES VFR TO
START THE PERIOD THIS EVENING. BY 9PM IFR CONDITIONS BHB IN
RAIN...BGR RAIN BCMG MXD. IFR CONDITIONS MOVE INTO
HUL...PQI...CAR...FVE AFT 3AM...PCPN SNOW BCMG MXD AT HUL TOMORROW
AFTN. IFR CONDITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PCPN TYPE SN FOR FVE...SN MAY MIX WITH PL BRIEFLY IN
AFTN IN PQI AND CAR.
SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DOWNEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 1000 PM UPDATE...WITH NO INTERIM SCA HDLN AND WINDS FCST
TO REACH LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS IN ABOUT 12 TO 15 HRS...WE
THOUGHT IT BEST TO CONVERT THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE
SAME PD OF TM ADVERTISED IN THE WATCH...NAMELY SUN AFTN THRU
LATE MON NGT...WITH THE 18Z GFS ADVERTISING GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
FOR APPROXIMATELY THIS TM PD.
ORGNL DISC...THE LOW WILL TRANSIT SLOWLY SOUTH OF OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. TODAYS TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED.
WINDS STILL CALL FOR MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS FOR TOMORROW. WILL
CONTINUE THE GALE WATCH.
SHORT TERM: MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD REQUIRE GALE WARNINGS.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR DOWNEAST MAINE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING STORM
WILL LIKELY FALL MAINLY AS RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO THIS RAIN...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY ADDING SNOWMELT
TO THE EQUATION. THE SNOWPACK IN THESE AREAS IS HIGHLY VARIABLE,
RANGING FROM AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST TO 2 FEET OR MORE IN
THE INTERIOR. THERE IS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER CONTAINED IN THE
PACK ALONG THE COAST WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES FURTHER INLAND. WHILE THE
DEEPER SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB SOME OF THE RAIN...MUCH OF IT
WILL BECOME RUNOFF IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWMELT. THIS MEANS
DOWNEAST AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY SEE 4 INCHES OR MORE OF TOTAL
RUNOFF. RIVERS WILL LIKELY RISE SUBSTANTIALLY AND POTENTIALLY
CAUSE RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE PLACES WHERE
THE ICE COMPLETELY FLUSHED OUT IN JANUARY (MEANING THE ICE THERE
NOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK). FOR THOSE RIVER STRETCHES THAT ARE ICE
FREE...ICE COVER UPSTREAM MAY BREAK UP AND COLLECT DOWNSTREAM. IN
ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS, THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
AND RUNOFF WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION,
TIDAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS BANGOR WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST FOR THE PENOBSCOT RIVER AT BANGOR BRINGS
THE GAGE WITHIN 1 FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE WITH HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
MORNING. PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG WATERWAYS OR IN FLOOD-PRONE
LOCATIONS ACROSS HANCOCK...WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT
COUNTIES SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ003>006-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ011-
015>017-031-032.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
130 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER. RAIN MAY MIX WITH...OR EVEN CHANGE
OVER...TO A BIT OF SNOW ON TUESDAY...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ENSURE A NICE AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS DRIFTING BY. WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REVEALS AN ACTIVE SETUP...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG BOTH
COASTS...AND A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS... ARCHING FROM QUEBEC...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY LIES JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A RIBBON OF CLEARING ALLOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE.
LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTS REQUIRES US TO LOOK
UPSTREAM...AND...SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY THAN WE HAVE SEEN OF
LATE...MUCH OF WHAT IS UPSTREAM IS DOMINATED BY PACIFIC...MARITIME
POLAR AIR...WITH ANY ARCTIC AIR NOW BOTTLED UP NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS PACIFIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AND
BEGINNING TO DEPART TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD
AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MUCH
SLOWER MOVING...AND THE DEVELOPING SQUEEZE PLAY IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL FORCE HEIGHTS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH QUIET
AND MODERATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. CERTAINLY
A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD MONTH OF MARCH.
THROUGH DAYBREAK: TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE THROUGH THE
TEENS GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND CALM-LIGHT WINDS. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG GIVEN IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT COOLDOWN.
TODAY: RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD TO START THE
DAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST TO A POSITION OVER LAKE HURON
TOWARDS EVENING. THERE/S A RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO START THE DAY WITH PWATS SUB 0.25" /A LITTLE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE MARCH/ WITH VALUES INCREASING DURING THE DAY
AS A CHUNK OF PACIFIC MOISTURE /SEEN NOW AS A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY/ RIDES EAST. WHILE
THIS COULD MANIFEST ITSELF AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ESP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY/...THE LACK OF LLEVEL
MOISTENING BENEATH BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SUGGESTS NO REAL
POTENTIAL FOR CU DEVELOPMENT. THUS...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR
THE AREA WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: HIGH/:
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS PLACES THIS AFTERNOON/S AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA 24 HOURS PREVIOUS WITH T9S SURGING TO 0-3C BY LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER STRONG WARM ADVECTION. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
NEARBY RIDGE AXIS...MIXING ISN/T GOING TO BE TOO STRONG. LOOKING
BACK TO MINNESOTA...AREAS THAT WERE UNABLE TO MIX DEEPLY REACHED THE
LOWER 40S...WITH UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST WHERE MECHANICAL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT TO BOOST SURFACE TEMPS. EXPECT
THAT WE/LL BE CLOSER TO THE FORMER TODAY...AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
40-45 DEGREE RANGE. AMAZINGLY...THAT WILL PUT US JUST ABOUT WHERE
WE SHOULD BE FOR THE END OF MARCH.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DAYSHIFT...LIGHT FLOW REGIME AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...KEEPING HIGHS LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE LAKE HURON
COAST.
TONIGHT: RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT STALLING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO
DEPART AND HEAD NORTHEAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE...BUT PRIMARILY AT UPPER LEVELS WITH TOP-DOWN SATURATION
LIKELY ONLY YIELDING AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RE-COUPLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEE NO REPEAT OF ANY
FOG GIVEN BETTER LLEVEL MIXING AND CONTINUED DRY LLEVEL CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: MODERATE-HIGH/:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COMPLEX WITH EVENING MCLEAR SKIES AND
DECOUPLING LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASED MIXING AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON. THIS WILL YIELD LOWS COLDEST OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WITH LOWS
LIKELY TO DIP TO AROUND 20 /AND PERHAPS A TAD BELOW THIS/...WITH
TEMPS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER STRUGGLING TO FALL MUCH BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
...REAL SPRING "WARMTH" GIVES WAY TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (GO
FIGURE)...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATCHING WINTRY PRECIP THREAT LATER
IN THE WEEK.
OVERVIEW: PATTERN REMAINS AN AGITATED ONE...WITH EXTENDED AMPED
PACIFIC REGIME OVER THE CONUS TUCKED NICELY ON SOUTH SIDE OF WELL
DEVELOPED NORTH CANADA COLD CORE GYRE. PACIFIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO
WIN OUT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH STEADY RETREAT OF OVERHEAD
COLD AIRMASS AS AGGRESSIVE UPSTREAM WARMING BEGINS. 00Z RAOB/HIGH
RES RAP GUIDANCE CONFIRMS SUCH...SHOWING H8 TEMPERATURES SPIKING
INTO THE TEENS (THAT`S ABOVE ZERO FOLKS!) ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH ABOVE ZERO H8 AIR ALREADY ADVANCING TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. EXPECTED RATHER SUBSTANTIAL UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS WORK WEEK WILL ONLY HELP THE
NORTHERN LAKES WARMING CAUSE...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA TO FALL
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY...COOL AIR WILL BE FORCED SOUTH ON ITS
BACKSIDE...ONCE AGAIN DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MID AND AND PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC
WAVE TRAIN REMAINS...AT LEAST SETTING UP SOME POTENTIAL FOR BOUTS OF
MORE WINTRY WEATHER HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OH...THE
JOY!
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PLENTY! TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THROUGHOUT...PRECIP TIMING/AND EVENTUAL TYPE...HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WORK WEEK.
DETAILS: JUST HOW WARM TO GO ON MONDAY? ABOUT TEXTBOOK END OF
MARCH/BEGINNING OF APRIL SPRING STORM WILL BE UNDERGOING FULL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...EXPECTED TO
PASS SOMEWHERE VICINITY CENTRAL/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY.
STRONG DOWNSTREAM OFF THE DECK WAA EXPECTED...WITH NOW MULTI-DAY
PROGS SUPPORTING H8 READINGS SPIKING TO NEAR 10C BY LATER MONDAY
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WITH ELEVATED WARM FRONT ALREADY NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND CORE OF MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...WOULD EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO FURTHER KICK THE WARMING
INTO OVERDRIVE. INCREASINGLY DEEP MIXED LAYER/FORCED MECHANICAL
MIXING PER INCREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...AND REALLY LIKE INHERITED HIGHS WILL INTO THE
50S/NEAR 60 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL KEEP NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER. MILD AIR CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH FLOW
REMAINS...AND FEEL SOME AREAS MAY FAIL TO FALL OUT OF THE 40S. DRY
WEATHER GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AS
OCCLUDED FRONT INTERACTS WITH NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. STRONGEST AND DEEPEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...WHERE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHALL RESIDE.
BACK TO 2014 SPRING NORMALCY QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AS SURGE OF COLDER
AIR FOLLOWS PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT. MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW AS COLD AIR DEEPENS AND SYSTEM BACKSIDE MOISTURE
REMAINS. JUST MINIMAL...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
UNCERTAINTY THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING INTO THE MID AND END
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE MANY CONCERNING NEXT WAVE
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. INTERACTION BETWEEN
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH/ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FEED AND WHAT SHOULD BE
RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL WAVE LEADING TO RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES AMONGST MID RANGE GUIDANCE. ECMWF REMAINS MOST
ROCK-STEADY...SUGGESTING A MORE AMPED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE
WORK WEEK. OTHER GUIDANCE STARTING TO FALL IN LINE WITH THIS MORE
NORTH/AMPED SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH HONESTLY...THIS DOES LITTLE TO
INCREASE CONFIDENCE AS A MORE SOUTH DISPLACED SYSTEM IS FULLY
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTED SET-UP AND POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
CANADIAN HIGH. TEMPERATURE PROFILE REMAINS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
A MIXED PRECIP EVENT IF FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS VERIFY. SET-UP ALSO
HAS SOME INTRIGUING FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITIES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINTENANCE OF DRY AND COLD EAST FLOW TO MAINTAIN SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ALL THE WHILE ELEVATED WARM NOSE DEEPENS. OF
COURSE...MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO SHOW SUCH SPECIFICS...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY IF SYSTEM WILL EVEN DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR
AREA. LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO RUN WITH A GENERIC RAIN/SNOW CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE DETAILS IN
COMING DAYS. WHILE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR NOW LOOKS LIKE A THING OF
THE PAST...OVERALL TRENDS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER
40S/OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...MSB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1127 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER. RAIN MAY MIX WITH...OR EVEN CHANGE
OVER...TO A BIT OF SNOW ON TUESDAY...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ENSURE A NICE AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS DRIFTING BY. WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REVEALS AN ACTIVE SETUP...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG BOTH
COASTS...AND A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS... ARCHING FROM QUEBEC...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY LIES JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A RIBBON OF CLEARING ALLOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE.
LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTS REQUIRES US TO LOOK
UPSTREAM...AND...SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY THAN WE HAVE SEEN OF
LATE...MUCH OF WHAT IS UPSTREAM IS DOMINATED BY PACIFIC...MARITIME
POLAR AIR...WITH ANY ARCTIC AIR NOW BOTTLED UP NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS PACIFIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AND
BEGINNING TO DEPART TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD
AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MUCH
SLOWER MOVING...AND THE DEVELOPING SQUEEZE PLAY IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL FORCE HEIGHTS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH QUIET
AND MODERATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. CERTAINLY
A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD MONTH OF MARCH.
THROUGH DAYBREAK: TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE THROUGH THE
TEENS GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND CALM-LIGHT WINDS. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG GIVEN IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT COOLDOWN.
TODAY: RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD TO START THE
DAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST TO A POSITION OVER LAKE HURON
TOWARDS EVENING. THERE/S A RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO START THE DAY WITH PWATS SUB 0.25" /A LITTLE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE MARCH/ WITH VALUES INCREASING DURING THE DAY
AS A CHUNK OF PACIFIC MOISTURE /SEEN NOW AS A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY/ RIDES EAST. WHILE
THIS COULD MANIFEST ITSELF AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ESP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY/...THE LACK OF LLEVEL
MOISTENING BENEATH BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SUGGESTS NO REAL
POTENTIAL FOR CU DEVELOPMENT. THUS...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR
THE AREA WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: HIGH/:
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS PLACES THIS AFTERNOON/S AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA 24 HOURS PREVIOUS WITH T9S SURGING TO 0-3C BY LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER STRONG WARM ADVECTION. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
NEARBY RIDGE AXIS...MIXING ISN/T GOING TO BE TOO STRONG. LOOKING
BACK TO MINNESOTA...AREAS THAT WERE UNABLE TO MIX DEEPLY REACHED THE
LOWER 40S...WITH UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST WHERE MECHANICAL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT TO BOOST SURFACE TEMPS. EXPECT
THAT WE/LL BE CLOSER TO THE FORMER TODAY...AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
40-45 DEGREE RANGE. AMAZINGLY...THAT WILL PUT US JUST ABOUT WHERE
WE SHOULD BE FOR THE END OF MARCH.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DAYSHIFT...LIGHT FLOW REGIME AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...KEEPING HIGHS LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE LAKE HURON
COAST.
TONIGHT: RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT STALLING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO
DEPART AND HEAD NORTHEAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE...BUT PRIMARILY AT UPPER LEVELS WITH TOP-DOWN SATURATION
LIKELY ONLY YIELDING AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RE-COUPLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEE NO REPEAT OF ANY
FOG GIVEN BETTER LLEVEL MIXING AND CONTINUED DRY LLEVEL CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: MODERATE-HIGH/:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COMPLEX WITH EVENING MCLEAR SKIES AND
DECOUPLING LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASED MIXING AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON. THIS WILL YIELD LOWS COLDEST OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WITH LOWS
LIKELY TO DIP TO AROUND 20 /AND PERHAPS A TAD BELOW THIS/...WITH
TEMPS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER STRUGGLING TO FALL MUCH BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
...REAL SPRING "WARMTH" GIVES WAY TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (GO
FIGURE)...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATCHING WINTRY PRECIP THREAT LATER
IN THE WEEK.
OVERVIEW: PATTERN REMAINS AN AGITATED ONE...WITH EXTENDED AMPED
PACIFIC REGIME OVER THE CONUS TUCKED NICELY ON SOUTH SIDE OF WELL
DEVELOPED NORTH CANADA COLD CORE GYRE. PACIFIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO
WIN OUT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH STEADY RETREAT OF OVERHEAD
COLD AIRMASS AS AGGRESSIVE UPSTREAM WARMING BEGINS. 00Z RAOB/HIGH
RES RAP GUIDANCE CONFIRMS SUCH...SHOWING H8 TEMPERATURES SPIKING
INTO THE TEENS (THAT`S ABOVE ZERO FOLKS!) ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH ABOVE ZERO H8 AIR ALREADY ADVANCING TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. EXPECTED RATHER SUBSTANTIAL UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS WORK WEEK WILL ONLY HELP THE
NORTHERN LAKES WARMING CAUSE...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA TO FALL
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY...COOL AIR WILL BE FORCED SOUTH ON ITS
BACKSIDE...ONCE AGAIN DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MID AND AND PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC
WAVE TRAIN REMAINS...AT LEAST SETTING UP SOME POTENTIAL FOR BOUTS OF
MORE WINTRY WEATHER HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OH...THE
JOY!
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PLENTY! TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THROUGHOUT...PRECIP TIMING/AND EVENTUAL TYPE...HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WORK WEEK.
DETAILS: JUST HOW WARM TO GO ON MONDAY? ABOUT TEXTBOOK END OF
MARCH/BEGINNING OF APRIL SPRING STORM WILL BE UNDERGOING FULL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...EXPECTED TO
PASS SOMEWHERE VICINITY CENTRAL/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY.
STRONG DOWNSTREAM OFF THE DECK WAA EXPECTED...WITH NOW MULTI-DAY
PROGS SUPPORTING H8 READINGS SPIKING TO NEAR 10C BY LATER MONDAY
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WITH ELEVATED WARM FRONT ALREADY NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND CORE OF MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...WOULD EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO FURTHER KICK THE WARMING
INTO OVERDRIVE. INCREASINGLY DEEP MIXED LAYER/FORCED MECHANICAL
MIXING PER INCREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...AND REALLY LIKE INHERITED HIGHS WILL INTO THE
50S/NEAR 60 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL KEEP NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER. MILD AIR CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH FLOW
REMAINS...AND FEEL SOME AREAS MAY FAIL TO FALL OUT OF THE 40S. DRY
WEATHER GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AS
OCCLUDED FRONT INTERACTS WITH NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. STRONGEST AND DEEPEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...WHERE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHALL RESIDE.
BACK TO 2014 SPRING NORMALCY QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AS SURGE OF COLDER
AIR FOLLOWS PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT. MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW AS COLD AIR DEEPENS AND SYSTEM BACKSIDE MOISTURE
REMAINS. JUST MINIMAL...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
UNCERTAINTY THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING INTO THE MID AND END
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE MANY CONCERNING NEXT WAVE
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. INTERACTION BETWEEN
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH/ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FEED AND WHAT SHOULD BE
RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL WAVE LEADING TO RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES AMONGST MID RANGE GUIDANCE. ECMWF REMAINS MOST
ROCK-STEADY...SUGGESTING A MORE AMPED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE
WORK WEEK. OTHER GUIDANCE STARTING TO FALL IN LINE WITH THIS MORE
NORTH/AMPED SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH HONESTLY...THIS DOES LITTLE TO
INCREASE CONFIDENCE AS A MORE SOUTH DISPLACED SYSTEM IS FULLY
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTED SET-UP AND POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
CANADIAN HIGH. TEMPERATURE PROFILE REMAINS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
A MIXED PRECIP EVENT IF FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS VERIFY. SET-UP ALSO
HAS SOME INTRIGUING FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITIES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINTENANCE OF DRY AND COLD EAST FLOW TO MAINTAIN SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ALL THE WHILE ELEVATED WARM NOSE DEEPENS. OF
COURSE...MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO SHOW SUCH SPECIFICS...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY IF SYSTEM WILL EVEN DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR
AREA. LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO RUN WITH A GENERIC RAIN/SNOW CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE DETAILS IN
COMING DAYS. WHILE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR NOW LOOKS LIKE A THING OF
THE PAST...OVERALL TRENDS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER
40S/OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
DURATION. ONLY SCT/BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH A LAKE
INDUCED MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AT KAPN. LIGHT/CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES TONIGHT...PRODUCING LLWS AT
ALL SITES EXCLUDING KAPN.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MSB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
639 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER. RAIN MAY MIX WITH...OR EVEN CHANGE
OVER...TO A BIT OF SNOW ON TUESDAY...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REVEALS AN ACTIVE SETUP...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG BOTH
COASTS...AND A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS... ARCHING FROM QUEBEC...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY LIES JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A RIBBON OF CLEARING ALLOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE.
LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTS REQUIRES US TO LOOK
UPSTREAM...AND...SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY THAN WE HAVE SEEN OF
LATE...MUCH OF WHAT IS UPSTREAM IS DOMINATED BY PACIFIC...MARITIME
POLAR AIR...WITH ANY ARCTIC AIR NOW BOTTLED UP NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS PACIFIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AND
BEGINNING TO DEPART TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD
AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MUCH
SLOWER MOVING...AND THE DEVELOPING SQUEEZE PLAY IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL FORCE HEIGHTS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH QUIET
AND MODERATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. CERTAINLY
A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD MONTH OF MARCH.
THROUGH DAYBREAK: TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE THROUGH THE
TEENS GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND CALM-LIGHT WINDS. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG GIVEN IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT COOLDOWN.
TODAY: RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD TO START THE
DAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST TO A POSITION OVER LAKE HURON
TOWARDS EVENING. THERE/S A RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO START THE DAY WITH PWATS SUB 0.25" /A LITTLE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE MARCH/ WITH VALUES INCREASING DURING THE DAY
AS A CHUNK OF PACIFIC MOISTURE /SEEN NOW AS A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY/ RIDES EAST. WHILE
THIS COULD MANIFEST ITSELF AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ESP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY/...THE LACK OF LLEVEL
MOISTENING BENEATH BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SUGGESTS NO REAL
POTENTIAL FOR CU DEVELOPMENT. THUS...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR
THE AREA WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: HIGH/:
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS PLACES THIS AFTERNOON/S AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA 24 HOURS PREVIOUS WITH T9S SURGING TO 0-3C BY LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER STRONG WARM ADVECTION. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
NEARBY RIDGE AXIS...MIXING ISN/T GOING TO BE TOO STRONG. LOOKING
BACK TO MINNESOTA...AREAS THAT WERE UNABLE TO MIX DEEPLY REACHED THE
LOWER 40S...WITH UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST WHERE MECHANICAL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT TO BOOST SURFACE TEMPS. EXPECT
THAT WE/LL BE CLOSER TO THE FORMER TODAY...AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
40-45 DEGREE RANGE. AMAZINGLY...THAT WILL PUT US JUST ABOUT WHERE
WE SHOULD BE FOR THE END OF MARCH.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DAYSHIFT...LIGHT FLOW REGIME AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...KEEPING HIGHS LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE LAKE HURON
COAST.
TONIGHT: RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT STALLING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO
DEPART AND HEAD NORTHEAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE...BUT PRIMARILY AT UPPER LEVELS WITH TOP-DOWN SATURATION
LIKELY ONLY YIELDING AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RE-COUPLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEE NO REPEAT OF ANY
FOG GIVEN BETTER LLEVEL MIXING AND CONTINUED DRY LLEVEL CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: MODERATE-HIGH/:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COMPLEX WITH EVENING MCLEAR SKIES AND
DECOUPLING LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASED MIXING AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON. THIS WILL YIELD LOWS COLDEST OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WITH LOWS
LIKELY TO DIP TO AROUND 20 /AND PERHAPS A TAD BELOW THIS/...WITH
TEMPS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER STRUGGLING TO FALL MUCH BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
...REAL SPRING "WARMTH" GIVES WAY TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (GO
FIGURE)...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATCHING WINTRY PRECIP THREAT LATER
IN THE WEEK.
OVERVIEW: PATTERN REMAINS AN AGITATED ONE...WITH EXTENDED AMPED
PACIFIC REGIME OVER THE CONUS TUCKED NICELY ON SOUTH SIDE OF WELL
DEVELOPED NORTH CANADA COLD CORE GYRE. PACIFIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO
WIN OUT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH STEADY RETREAT OF OVERHEAD
COLD AIRMASS AS AGGRESSIVE UPSTREAM WARMING BEGINS. 00Z RAOB/HIGH
RES RAP GUIDANCE CONFIRMS SUCH...SHOWING H8 TEMPERATURES SPIKING
INTO THE TEENS (THAT`S ABOVE ZERO FOLKS!) ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH ABOVE ZERO H8 AIR ALREADY ADVANCING TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. EXPECTED RATHER SUBSTANTIAL UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS WORK WEEK WILL ONLY HELP THE
NORTHERN LAKES WARMING CAUSE...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA TO FALL
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY...COOL AIR WILL BE FORCED SOUTH ON ITS
BACKSIDE...ONCE AGAIN DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MID AND AND PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC
WAVE TRAIN REMAINS...AT LEAST SETTING UP SOME POTENTIAL FOR BOUTS OF
MORE WINTRY WEATHER HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OH...THE
JOY!
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PLENTY! TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THROUGHOUT...PRECIP TIMING/AND EVENTUAL TYPE...HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WORK WEEK.
DETAILS: JUST HOW WARM TO GO ON MONDAY? ABOUT TEXTBOOK END OF
MARCH/BEGINNING OF APRIL SPRING STORM WILL BE UNDERGOING FULL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...EXPECTED TO
PASS SOMEWHERE VICINITY CENTRAL/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY.
STRONG DOWNSTREAM OFF THE DECK WAA EXPECTED...WITH NOW MULTI-DAY
PROGS SUPPORTING H8 READINGS SPIKING TO NEAR 10C BY LATER MONDAY
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WITH ELEVATED WARM FRONT ALREADY NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND CORE OF MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...WOULD EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO FURTHER KICK THE WARMING
INTO OVERDRIVE. INCREASINGLY DEEP MIXED LAYER/FORCED MECHANICAL
MIXING PER INCREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...AND REALLY LIKE INHERITED HIGHS WILL INTO THE
50S/NEAR 60 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL KEEP NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER. MILD AIR CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH FLOW
REMAINS...AND FEEL SOME AREAS MAY FAIL TO FALL OUT OF THE 40S. DRY
WEATHER GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AS
OCCLUDED FRONT INTERACTS WITH NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. STRONGEST AND DEEPEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...WHERE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHALL RESIDE.
BACK TO 2014 SPRING NORMALCY QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AS SURGE OF COLDER
AIR FOLLOWS PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT. MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW AS COLD AIR DEEPENS AND SYSTEM BACKSIDE MOISTURE
REMAINS. JUST MINIMAL...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
UNCERTAINTY THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING INTO THE MID AND END
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE MANY CONCERNING NEXT WAVE
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. INTERACTION BETWEEN
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH/ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FEED AND WHAT SHOULD BE
RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL WAVE LEADING TO RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES AMONGST MID RANGE GUIDANCE. ECMWF REMAINS MOST
ROCK-STEADY...SUGGESTING A MORE AMPED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE
WORK WEEK. OTHER GUIDANCE STARTING TO FALL IN LINE WITH THIS MORE
NORTH/AMPED SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH HONESTLY...THIS DOES LITTLE TO
INCREASE CONFIDENCE AS A MORE SOUTH DISPLACED SYSTEM IS FULLY
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTED SET-UP AND POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
CANADIAN HIGH. TEMPERATURE PROFILE REMAINS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
A MIXED PRECIP EVENT IF FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS VERIFY. SET-UP ALSO
HAS SOME INTRIGUING FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITIES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINTENANCE OF DRY AND COLD EAST FLOW TO MAINTAIN SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ALL THE WHILE ELEVATED WARM NOSE DEEPENS. OF
COURSE...MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO SHOW SUCH SPECIFICS...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY IF SYSTEM WILL EVEN DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR
AREA. LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO RUN WITH A GENERIC RAIN/SNOW CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE DETAILS IN
COMING DAYS. WHILE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR NOW LOOKS LIKE A THING OF
THE PAST...OVERALL TRENDS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER
40S/OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
DURATION. ONLY SCT/BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS WESTERN TAF SITES...WITH A LAKE
INDUCED MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AT KAPN. LIGHT/CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES TONIGHT...PRODUCING LLWS AT
ALL SITES EXCLUDING KAPN.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MSB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
311 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER. RAIN MAY MIX WITH...OR EVEN CHANGE
OVER...TO A BIT OF SNOW ON TUESDAY...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
PATTERN SUMMARY: AN EARLY MORNING LOOK AT THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REVEALS AN ACTIVE SETUP...WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG BOTH
COASTS...AND A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS... ARCHING FROM QUEBEC...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY LIES JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A RIBBON OF CLEARING ALLOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE.
LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTS REQUIRES US TO LOOK
UPSTREAM...AND...SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY THAN WE HAVE SEEN OF
LATE...MUCH OF WHAT IS UPSTREAM IS DOMINATED BY PACIFIC...MARITIME
POLAR AIR...WITH ANY ARCTIC AIR NOW BOTTLED UP NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS PACIFIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AND
BEGINNING TO DEPART TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD
AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MUCH
SLOWER MOVING...AND THE DEVELOPING SQUEEZE PLAY IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL FORCE HEIGHTS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH QUIET
AND MODERATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN. CERTAINLY
A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD MONTH OF MARCH.
THROUGH DAYBREAK: TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE THROUGH THE
TEENS GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND CALM-LIGHT WINDS. ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG GIVEN IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT COOLDOWN.
TODAY: RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD TO START THE
DAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST TO A POSITION OVER LAKE HURON
TOWARDS EVENING. THERE/S A RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN TO START THE DAY WITH PWATS SUB 0.25" /A LITTLE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE MARCH/ WITH VALUES INCREASING DURING THE DAY
AS A CHUNK OF PACIFIC MOISTURE /SEEN NOW AS A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY/ RIDES EAST. WHILE
THIS COULD MANIFEST ITSELF AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA /ESP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY/...THE LACK OF LLEVEL
MOISTENING BENEATH BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SUGGESTS NO REAL
POTENTIAL FOR CU DEVELOPMENT. THUS...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR
THE AREA WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: HIGH/:
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS PLACES THIS AFTERNOON/S AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA 24 HOURS PREVIOUS WITH T9S SURGING TO 0-3C BY LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER STRONG WARM ADVECTION. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
NEARBY RIDGE AXIS...MIXING ISN/T GOING TO BE TOO STRONG. LOOKING
BACK TO MINNESOTA...AREAS THAT WERE UNABLE TO MIX DEEPLY REACHED THE
LOWER 40S...WITH UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST WHERE MECHANICAL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT TO BOOST SURFACE TEMPS. EXPECT
THAT WE/LL BE CLOSER TO THE FORMER TODAY...AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
40-45 DEGREE RANGE. AMAZINGLY...THAT WILL PUT US JUST ABOUT WHERE
WE SHOULD BE FOR THE END OF MARCH.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DAYSHIFT...LIGHT FLOW REGIME AND
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...KEEPING HIGHS LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE LAKE HURON
COAST.
TONIGHT: RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT STALLING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO
DEPART AND HEAD NORTHEAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE...BUT PRIMARILY AT UPPER LEVELS WITH TOP-DOWN SATURATION
LIKELY ONLY YIELDING AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RE-COUPLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEE NO REPEAT OF ANY
FOG GIVEN BETTER LLEVEL MIXING AND CONTINUED DRY LLEVEL CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES /CONFIDENCE: MODERATE-HIGH/:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COMPLEX WITH EVENING MCLEAR SKIES AND
DECOUPLING LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASED MIXING AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON. THIS WILL YIELD LOWS COLDEST OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WITH LOWS
LIKELY TO DIP TO AROUND 20 /AND PERHAPS A TAD BELOW THIS/...WITH
TEMPS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER STRUGGLING TO FALL MUCH BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
...REAL SPRING "WARMTH" GIVES WAY TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (GO
FIGURE)...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATCHING WINTRY PRECIP THREAT LATER
IN THE WEEK.
OVERVIEW: PATTERN REMAINS AN AGITATED ONE...WITH EXTENDED AMPED
PACIFIC REGIME OVER THE CONUS TUCKED NICELY ON SOUTH SIDE OF WELL
DEVELOPED NORTH CANADA COLD CORE GYRE. PACIFIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO
WIN OUT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH STEADY RETREAT OF OVERHEAD
COLD AIRMASS AS AGGRESSIVE UPSTREAM WARMING BEGINS. 00Z RAOB/HIGH
RES RAP GUIDANCE CONFIRMS SUCH...SHOWING H8 TEMPERATURES SPIKING
INTO THE TEENS (THAT`S ABOVE ZERO FOLKS!) ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH ABOVE ZERO H8 AIR ALREADY ADVANCING TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. EXPECTED RATHER SUBSTANTIAL UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS WORK WEEK WILL ONLY HELP THE
NORTHERN LAKES WARMING CAUSE...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA TO FALL
SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY...COOL AIR WILL BE FORCED SOUTH ON ITS
BACKSIDE...ONCE AGAIN DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MID AND AND PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC
WAVE TRAIN REMAINS...AT LEAST SETTING UP SOME POTENTIAL FOR BOUTS OF
MORE WINTRY WEATHER HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OH...THE
JOY!
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PLENTY! TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THROUGHOUT...PRECIP TIMING/AND EVENTUAL TYPE...HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WORK WEEK.
DETAILS: JUST HOW WARM TO GO ON MONDAY? ABOUT TEXTBOOK END OF
MARCH/BEGINNING OF APRIL SPRING STORM WILL BE UNDERGOING FULL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...EXPECTED TO
PASS SOMEWHERE VICINITY CENTRAL/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY.
STRONG DOWNSTREAM OFF THE DECK WAA EXPECTED...WITH NOW MULTI-DAY
PROGS SUPPORTING H8 READINGS SPIKING TO NEAR 10C BY LATER MONDAY
OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WITH ELEVATED WARM FRONT ALREADY NORTH OF
THE AREA...AND CORE OF MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...WOULD EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO FURTHER KICK THE WARMING
INTO OVERDRIVE. INCREASINGLY DEEP MIXED LAYER/FORCED MECHANICAL
MIXING PER INCREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...AND REALLY LIKE INHERITED HIGHS WILL INTO THE
50S/NEAR 60 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL KEEP NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER. MILD AIR CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH FLOW
REMAINS...AND FEEL SOME AREAS MAY FAIL TO FALL OUT OF THE 40S. DRY
WEATHER GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AS
OCCLUDED FRONT INTERACTS WITH NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. STRONGEST AND DEEPEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...WHERE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST PRECIPITATION SHALL RESIDE.
BACK TO 2014 SPRING NORMALCY QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AS SURGE OF COLDER
AIR FOLLOWS PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT. MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AND 40S WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW AS COLD AIR DEEPENS AND SYSTEM BACKSIDE MOISTURE
REMAINS. JUST MINIMAL...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
UNCERTAINTY THE NAME OF THE GAME HEADING INTO THE MID AND END
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE MANY CONCERNING NEXT WAVE
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. INTERACTION BETWEEN
SOUTHERN CANADA HIGH/ASSOCIATED DRY AIR FEED AND WHAT SHOULD BE
RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL WAVE LEADING TO RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES AMONGST MID RANGE GUIDANCE. ECMWF REMAINS MOST
ROCK-STEADY...SUGGESTING A MORE AMPED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE
WORK WEEK. OTHER GUIDANCE STARTING TO FALL IN LINE WITH THIS MORE
NORTH/AMPED SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH HONESTLY...THIS DOES LITTLE TO
INCREASE CONFIDENCE AS A MORE SOUTH DISPLACED SYSTEM IS FULLY
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTED SET-UP AND POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
CANADIAN HIGH. TEMPERATURE PROFILE REMAINS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
A MIXED PRECIP EVENT IF FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS VERIFY. SET-UP ALSO
HAS SOME INTRIGUING FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITIES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MAINTENANCE OF DRY AND COLD EAST FLOW TO MAINTAIN SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ALL THE WHILE ELEVATED WARM NOSE DEEPENS. OF
COURSE...MUCH TOO FAR OUT TO SHOW SUCH SPECIFICS...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY IF SYSTEM WILL EVEN DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR
AREA. LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO RUN WITH A GENERIC RAIN/SNOW CHANCE
WORDING FOR NOW...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE DETAILS IN
COMING DAYS. WHILE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR NOW LOOKS LIKE A THING OF
THE PAST...OVERALL TRENDS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER
40S/OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
...QUIET TODAY WITH LLWS CONCERNS TONIGHT...
SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH VERY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE REMAINED SUBSTANTIAL AND
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THESE CLOUDS
THICKENING SOME TONIGHT.
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
STRENGTHENING MIXING AS WELL AS INCREASING OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER
SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS: CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BE
LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
5-10KTS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FOR PLN/TVC/MBL...WITH MORE EASTERLY
LAKE BREEZE FLOW 10 KTS AT APN. WINDS LIKELY TO GO LIGHT/VARIABLE
AT APN THROUGH TONIGHT AND FOR SOME OF THE EVENING AT PLN/TVC/MBL...
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5KTS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LLWS: POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LLWS CONCERNS PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST
LOWER TONIGHT AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ABOVE WHAT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE. WILL INCLUDE LLWS MENTION AT
MBL/TVC WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ARNOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
921 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 918 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Cold front as of 0200 UTC was just entering the northwestern
portion of the CWFA. Narrow plume of sfc-based instability has
helped yield some scattered thunderstorms over portions of north-
central and northeastern Missouri this evening. Believe with loss
of daytime heating/nocturnal stabilization these storms should
weaken with time which is supported by latest HRRR guidance. Front
should progress from west to east across the bi-state area with a
slight chance of rain showers.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Initial round of showers and few thunderstorms ahead of next weather
system to continue tracking to the northeast late this afternoon and
diminish. Then as frontal boundary slides through will see another
area if showers and isolated thunderstorms develop and slide east
through region. Coverage will be rather scattered so kept just low
chance/slight chance pops for this evening, drying out after
midnight. Gusty south winds to diminish and veer to the west behind
the frontal boundary. Skies to scatter out towards daybreak with
lows in the low 30s far north to the upper 40s far southeast.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Weak high pressure will be centered through the area on Tuesday
morning in the wake of the cold front. The high pressure will weaken
as surface winds veer to more easterly in the afternoon in response
to falling pressure to the west. Meanwhile the front will become
quasi-stationary in the afternoon in response to the development
of wsw flow aloft and will extend along a line from around central
OK near the MO/AR border into the lower OH Valley. The latest model
guidance continues to suggest that showers and maybe thunderstorms
will develop on Tuesday afternoon in the cool sector across
southern/central MO in response to low level moisture convergence,
transport and thetae advection via a strengthening southerly LLJ.
Given the model trends I now have raised pops into the chance
range and they made need to be increased further in future
forecasts once we get a better handle on the location.
The overall scenario from Tuesday Night into Thursday Night has
changed very little and we are expecting a very active period with
a multi-day period featuring episodes of heavy rain and strong-
severe thunderstorms.
Tuesday night marks the beginning with widespread cool sector showers
and thunderstorms across the northern half of the CWA, north of
the slowly retreating west-east front. The development and
coverage should really ramp up in the evening in response to
strong forcing/moisture convergence/thetae advection via a veering
south-southwesterly LLJ and as several weak preturbations track
across the region within the wsw flow aloft. A broad zone of
forcing along the terminus of the LLJ suggests indicates there
will be a rather elongated MCS from eastern KS across MO into
western IL with potentially regenerative convection on the western
flank. The east-west front is still forecast to slowly lift
northward during the day on Wednesday with a position just north
of the I-70 corridor by early evening. It still appears that the
area to the north of the front will be quite convectively active
through midday Wednesday with perstent low level forcing via the
swly LLJ. To the south of the front the warm sector will continue
to expand and become rather unstable during the afternoon due to
the combination of moistening/heating and steep mid level lapse
rates. It appears that the CAP will gradually weaken during the
late afternoon which should allow for scattered surface based
development. Coverage of thunderstorms both north of the front in
the cool air and across the warm sector should ramp up on
Wednesday evening as a short wave in the wsw flow aloft provides
forcing and the associated surface wave moves along the front, in
addition to the swly LLJ. There will be a threat of large hail with
storms in the cool air and all severe weather threats are possible
within the warm sector where wswly deep layer shear vectors are
favorable for organized severe storms including supercells.
Persistent convection could also yield a heavy rain threat.
I am becoming increasingly concerned about the period from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night with the potential for significant
severe weather. The models are gradually becoming more clustered
with respect to previous differences in the main surface low
position and attendant warm front. A vigorous upper trof will
eject from the Rockies in the southern/central Plains on Thursday
afternoon and into the Mid MS Valley on Thursday night. A mean
solution of the deterministic models and ensembles would have the
main surface low deepening as it tracks from north central OK to
west central MO by 00Z and then into NW IL by 12z Friday. This
solution would have a rather extensive warm sector to the south of
the lifting warm front and ahead of the encroaching cold front.
Conditions appear quite favorable within the warm sector for
discrete supercells during the late afternoon/evening with very
unstable air/SBCAPE above 2000 J/KG and deep layer shear vectors
of 40-60 kts aligned perpendicular to the forcing/boundary. As the
front and upper trof translate eastward on Thursday night the
forcing and shear vector orientation suggests upscale growth into
a severe QLCS.
We will begin highlighting severe weather and heavy rain potential
in our HWO and graphical products.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 517 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Cold front extending from surface low over sw MN south through nw
MO will move southeastward through UIN and COU this evening, and
through the St. Louis metro area around 06z Tuesday. A narrow
broken band of showers and a few storms is expected along this
front moving through UIN and COU around 02-03z Tuesday, then
weaken as it moves through the St Louis metro area around 04-05z
Tuesday. May just go with a 2 hour window of vcts in UIN and COU
and vcsh in the St Louis metro area tafs this evening. A narrow
band of high based cumulus clouds can be expected along the front.
The strong and gusty southerly winds will gradually weaken this
evening, then veer around to a wly direction after fropa. These
wly winds will become relatively light Tuesday afternoon with weak
surface ridging over the area. Mid-high level clouds will increase
Tuesday afternoon with low-mid level warm air advection and an
approaching warm front from the south. Could not rule out
scattered showers and storms in COU area late Tuesday afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL: Weakening showers and a few storms are
expected around 04-05z this evening along a cold front. Will
continue with vcsh in the STL taf during this time period. Should
just be VFR cloudiness this evening, then clearing overnight. The
strong and gusty sly surface wind will gradually weaken this
evening, then veer around to a wly direction late tonight after
fropa. The surface wind will be fairly light and variable Tuesday
afternoon, then become ely Tuesday evening with an approaching
warm front moving nwd through srn MO. Mid-high level clouds will
be on the increase Tuesday afternoon with the cloud ceiling
lowering Tuesday evening and showers/thunderstorms moving into
the area.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
713 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
Evening adjustments to the going forecast focused on winds as
convection along the advancing front remains well behaved. Winds
behind the front have turned to the west and west northwest but have
maintained there overall speed and gustiness. True cold air behind
the front is lagging well back across Nebraska at this time, so do
not expect the boundary layer to decouple anytime soon as the
pressure gradient will remain rather tight well into the evening. This
will result in near advisory to advisory level winds persisting after
sunset. Winds should begin to relax around 9 to 10 PM this evening as
the tight gradient shifts east behind the surface low moving through
Minnesota.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A pretty potent surface low resides just north of the forecast area
in southern Minnesota, however the pressure gradient associated with
that low remains strong over the forecast area, producing strong
southwest winds. Good mixing through the day and a dry southwesterly
component has caused RH values to drop to around 30 percent, with
some very localized areas dropping to the lower 20 percent range,
especially in far western Missouri. Surface observations indicate
that a cold front currently sits across far NW Missouri. This cold
front will continue to push S/SE through the area over the next
several hours, causing winds to switch from the southwest to the
west/northwest overnight. While the initial winds behind the front
will be somewhat gusty, expect a general decline in winds through
the overnight hours. HRRR has been somewhat consistent in producing
some signals for isolated to scattered convection along the cold
front in the 23z to 03z time frame across C Missouri, but given the
weak signal and forecast soundings showing a struggle to get
saturation, will only go out with low end chance PoPs for C Missouri
in the evening time frame. Should a thunderstorm get going along the
front the dry low levels of the atmosphere bring about a sort of
inverted-V sounding. While the overall potential is very low, there
could be an outside chance at a damaging wind gust or two if any
storm gets healthy along the front. Once the cold front clears the
area expect the chances for precipitation to trend toward no chance.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
On Tuesday evening, a deepening trough across the western CONUS and
southerly low-level flow off the Gulf will allow for wetter weather
through the remainder of the work week. A slow-moving warm front
will lift into the area and stall somewhere around the vicinity of
I-70, resulting in several rounds of thunderstorms, some possibly
strong to severe, for Tuesday night through Thursday.
A few isolated thunderstorms should begin to develop on Tuesday
evening as the low-level jet begins to increase and the frontal
boundary begins to edge into the region. The most widespread
convection is expected after 06z, and should be elevated in nature.
Hail is possible with any robust elevated storms that develop, but
widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
The main challenge for severe potential Wednesday will be the
presence and influence of morning convection across the region.
Without any real feature to sweep out nighttime convection, rain
showers and cloud cover may prevent strong instability from
developing. Shear profiles, particularly along the warm front, will
be very supportive of severe weather, and any storms that develop
will have the potential to be severe. Right now the area near the
warm front looks like it could remain very capped, but any clearing
will likely result in explosive storm development, especially along
and south of I-70.
Model differences increase on Thursday night into Friday with the
position of the surface low and associated front, which will
strongly impact severe weather chances. For now, have trended the
higher PoPs towards the southeastern corner of the CWA, but will
need to adjust as models come better into focus. Morning convection
could again impact instability, but with the strong front sweeping
through, storms are likely along and ahead of the boundary during
the afternoon and early evening hours.
Slightly cooler conditions and quieter weather is expected for the
weekend and into early next week. A few showers are possible for
Sunday night into Monday, but significant precipitation is not
expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours behind the cold
front that swept through late this afternoon. Strong and gusty west
to winds will prevail behind the front this evening veering to the
northwest slowly through the night. The strength and gustiness of the
wind will decrease after midnight as the surface gradient relaxes. A
warm front lifting north will likely switch winds around to the
southeast for the afternoon hours of Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
Strong southwesterly winds continue across the entire area, however
portions of NW Missouri may see a gradual change from southwesterly
winds to more of a westerly then northwesterly direction this
evening. This wind shift will work its way southeastward through the
evening hours. A few scattered showers may pop up along the cold
front later this evening, but expect showery activity to be rather
sparse and localize. If convective activity affects areas with active
fires they could produce some erratic wind behavior. Some lightning
may occur with these showers, so fire personnel will need to be aware
of possible lightning with any storm that forms this evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...WIND ADVISORY until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
011>014-020>022-028>030-037-043.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cutter
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
611 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A pretty potent surface low resides just north of the forecast area
in southern Minnesota, however the pressure gradient associated with
that low remains strong over the forecast area, producing strong
southwest winds. Good mixing through the day and a dry southwesterly
component has caused RH values to drop to around 30 percent, with
some very localized areas dropping to the lower 20 percent range,
especially in far western Missouri. Surface observations indicate
that a cold front currently sits across far NW Missouri. This cold
front will continue to push S/SE through the area over the next
several hours, causing winds to switch from the southwest to the
west/northwest overnight. While the initial winds behind the front
will be somewhat gusty, expect a general decline in winds through
the overnight hours. HRRR has been somewhat consistent in producing
some signals for isolated to scattered convection along the cold
front in the 23z to 03z time frame across C Missouri, but given the
weak signal and forecast soundings showing a struggle to get
saturation, will only go out with low end chance PoPs for C Missouri
in the evening time frame. Should a thunderstorm get going along the
front the dry low levels of the atmosphere bring about a sort of
inverted-V sounding. While the overall potential is very low, there
could be an outside chance at a damaging wind gust or two if any
storm gets healthy along the front. Once the cold front clears the
area expect the chances for precipitation to trend toward no chance.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
On Tuesday evening, a deepening trough across the western CONUS and
southerly low-level flow off the Gulf will allow for wetter weather
through the remainder of the work week. A slow-moving warm front
will lift into the area and stall somewhere around the vicinity of
I-70, resulting in several rounds of thunderstorms, some possibly
strong to severe, for Tuesday night through Thursday.
A few isolated thunderstorms should begin to develop on Tuesday
evening as the low-level jet begins to increase and the frontal
boundary begins to edge into the region. The most widespread
convection is expected after 06z, and should be elevated in nature.
Hail is possible with any robust elevated storms that develop, but
widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
The main challenge for severe potential Wednesday will be the
presence and influence of morning convection across the region.
Without any real feature to sweep out nighttime convection, rain
showers and cloud cover may prevent strong instability from
developing. Shear profiles, particularly along the warm front, will
be very supportive of severe weather, and any storms that develop
will have the potential to be severe. Right now the area near the
warm front looks like it could remain very capped, but any clearing
will likely result in explosive storm development, especially along
and south of I-70.
Model differences increase on Thursday night into Friday with the
position of the surface low and associated front, which will
strongly impact severe weather chances. For now, have trended the
higher PoPs towards the southeastern corner of the CWA, but will
need to adjust as models come better into focus. Morning convection
could again impact instability, but with the strong front sweeping
through, storms are likely along and ahead of the boundary during
the afternoon and early evening hours.
Slightly cooler conditions and quieter weather is expected for the
weekend and into early next week. A few showers are possible for
Sunday night into Monday, but significant precipitation is not
expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours behind the cold
front that swept through late this afternoon. Strong and gusty west
to winds will prevail behind the front this evening veering to the
northwest slowly through the night. The strength and gustiness of the
wind will decrease after midnight as the surface gradient relaxes. A
warm front lifting north will likely switch winds around to the
southeast for the afternoon hours of Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
Strong southwesterly winds continue across the entire area, however
portions of NW Missouri may see a gradual change from southwesterly
winds to more of a westerly then northwesterly direction this
evening. This wind shift will work its way southeastward through the
evening hours. A few scattered showers may pop up along the cold
front later this evening, but expect showery activity to be rather
sparse and localize. If convective activity affects areas with active
fires they could produce some erratic wind behavior. Some lightning
may occur with these showers, so fire personnel will need to be aware
of possible lightning with any storm that forms this evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
011>013-020-021-028-029-037.
WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
020>022-028>030-037-043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1139 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 919 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Area of MVFR stratus has continued to dissipate and is now
confined to portions of south-central Illinois. Expect this area
to completely erode by 0600 UTC with mainly clear skies for most
of the rest of tonight. Exception would be over western areas as
cirrus tries to advect in from the west/northwest.
Surface temperatures over the past two hours have dropped very
rapidly over most of the region where combination of clear
skies/light winds exist. Lowered minimum temperatures a few
degrees over many areas using a blend of the 0000 UTC RAP which
was capturing this rapid drop fairly well as well as the previous
forecast. Other concern overnight will be fog potential and patchy
fog with restricted visibilities below 3 miles still looks on
track though certainly could not rule out some denser fog
especially in river valleys and other low-lying elevations.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Pesky stratus seems to be both clearing and eroding at a snails
pace this afternoon and has a done number on the temperatures.
Present indications based on satellite trends and the RAP which
has handled the low clouds best, is that areas generally along and
east of the MS River will see clouds into early evening with
clearing from mid-late evening. Otherwise the expansive NE-SW high
pressure system currently extending from WI into TX will slide
east across the region tonight with the axis centered thru SE MO
and southern IL at 12z. The slow clearing trend of the clouds
along with light winds overnight across the SE third of the CWA
has prompted me to add a mention of fog overnight.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
It finally looks like the warm-up will commence on Sunday. Heights
aloft that begin rising tonight in the wake of the departing upper
trof, will continue to rise on Sunday while the surface high
retreats and low level southerly flow and warm advection get
underway. There should be no low clouds to deal with a just some
thin high clouds filtering across the region. The current forecast
leveraging the warmer temperatures looks right on the mark and no
changes were made. The warmer temps combined with low afternoon
RH values and increasing southerly winds support an elevated fire
danger threat across central and east central MO, which will be
highlighted in the HWO.
Continued southerly low level flow on Sunday night will lead to
"milder" min temperatures and a slow return in low level moisture.
The aforementioned expansive surface high and its southern extent
will initially have a profounded effect on trajectories and delay
quality moisture return. However mid level moisture won`t be an
issue and this along with the eastern edge of steeper mid level
lapse rates spreads into central MO just before daybreak on
Monday. These ingredients along with the leading edge of forcing
aloft associated with an upstream trof, suggests potential for
some high-based scattered showers/thunderstorms and hence have
added some slight chance pops.
The week ahead looks especially active. The migratory upper trof
partly responsible for the slight chance pops late Sunday night
will move across the region Monday afternoon and early evening
spreading height falls and cooling aloft along with a plume of
steep mid level lapse rates. This combined with a gradual increase
in low level moisture and forcing should be sufficient for
scattered elevated showers/thunderstorms within the warm sector, moving
through central and northeast MO during the morning gradually
dwindling in coverage during the afternoon as they move east. By
the time the cold front moves through the area Monday night,
forcing aloft appears to have outrun the front and boundary layer
moisture and hence instability are quite weak. I suspect anything
that might be able to develop with be quite spotty and just have a
slight chance pop.
The most active period will be late Tuesday night into Thursday.
The front that moves through Monday night will move back north
and waver across the region. The warm sector air mass south of
this boundary will become quite unstable thanks to continued
northward return of quality Gulf moisture and the presence of
steep mid level lapse rates, and with a strong low level jet
evolving there will be good elevated instability and forcing north
this boundary. The models differ quite a bit on the position of
the next formidable migratory upper trof and the position of
attendant surface low(s) and this boundary. While all the guidance
supports a stormy period, the more northern position which has
been consistently advertised by the ECMWF would lead to a much
more volatile set-up.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Light fog has developed across the region, especially near and
east of the Mississippi River (where daytime mixing was limited by
persistent stratus) and in river valleys. Light fog will begin to
lift and dissipate during the morning hours after winds start to
increase in response to the tightening pressure gradient. LLWS is
possible towards the end of the valid TAF period based on model
depictions of strong winds around 1200 ft.
Specifics for KSTL: Light fog is expected tonight, but
visibilities should remain in the MVFR to VFR range. Winds will
increase during the morning due to the tightening pressure
gradient. LLWS is possible towards the end of the valid TAF period
based on model depictions of strong winds around 1200 ft.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
841 PM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT AND ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
OVER PARK AND SWEET GRASS COUNTY. HRRR IS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO YELLOWSTONE COUNTY BY 06Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS FROM BILLINGS WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT AND NO ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREAD CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST
WINDS AND SKY COVER. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA TONIGHT AND MILES CITY WILL BE CLOSE TO A RECORD LOW.
RICHMOND
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
STORM SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS HAS EXITED OUR EAST...AND PCPN HAS
TAPERED OFF IN OUR CWA. HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED ALL HIGHLIGHTS.
WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF IDAHO COMBINED WITH MODEST DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER ACROSS OUR
WESTERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS INTO THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM RADAR
INDEED IS SHOWING AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN EASTERN ID THIS AFTN.
THIS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH...AND FORCING IS QUITE WEAK...SO
EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE FOR
TONIGHT THE MAIN ISSUE IS FOG. TONIGHT IS A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR FOG
AND/OR STRATUS GIVEN THE EAST WINDS AND ABUNDANCE OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AS A RESULT OF THE LATEST STORM. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTIVE OF FOG OR LOW CIGS AS WELL...AND OF COURSE WE ARE STILL
SEEING UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS AT LIVINGSTON...BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN
THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS FROM 06-15Z...AND
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME SORT OF FOG/STRATUS COMBO. ALSO...WITH
ENOUGH CLEARING...THIS AIRMASS SUPPORTS A NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMP AT MILES CITY TONIGHT. RECORD LOW AT MLS IS 10 ABOVE...BUT
RECORDS ARE A LITTLE TOO COLD AT OUR OTHER CLIMATE SITES.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AS
WE REMAIN DOMINATED BY LOW HEIGHTS AND EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH PERSISTENT LEE SIDE CANADIAN SFC RIDGING. COOL TEMPS WILL BE
AIDED BY THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE WHICH WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW
TO MELT. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN SPOTS BOTH TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY.
WEAK ENERGY IN WY ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD AND UNORGANIZED -SHSN TOMORROW. GREATER
CHANCE OF PCPN WILL EMERGE WEDNESDAY AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD THRU WY AND PERHAPS
INTO SE MT. MODELS IN TERRIBLE AGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NAM EVEN
KEEPING ANY ENERGY/MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COMPLETELY
SUPPRESSED...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSENSUS AMONG THE OTHER
MODELS TO RAISE POPS IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST A LITTLE MORE. WILL
NEED TO KEEP WATCH OF THIS. IF THE DOOR DOES OPEN TO THE SOUTH WE
COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW LATE TUE NITE INTO WED
EVNG. SFC TEMPS SHOULD STAY SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW...WITH
850MB TEMPS REMAINING BELOW ZERO.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
THURS THROUGH SAT FEATURES MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH
STRONGER JET ENERGY CARVES OUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUN...WHICH PUTS THE AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
THURS...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WED INTO WED NIGHT.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST TO DIMINISH BY MID DAY. TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE EAST...AND THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE WEST.
FRI...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION
LATE IN THE DAY. SURFACE TEMPS HEAT UP INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE WEST AND 850 - 500 MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE IN AROUND
8C/KM...SO IT WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE. GFS INDICATES THAT MUCAPE
VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS 400 J/KG...SO AS THEE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND A WEAK JET MAX MOVE INTO THE REGION...WILL SEE SOME
SHOWERS...AND MAYBE EVEN SOME ISOLATED T-STORMS. DID ADD THE
POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS TO THE FORECAST FRI AFTERNOON. WEATHER
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRI EVE ACROSS THE EAST.
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SAT...BUT AT THIS
TIME...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS THE
FRI ACTIVITY...SO JUST KEPT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. STILL LOOKS
MILD SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
SUN...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AS LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN AROUND 8C/KM...WHICH
IS UNSTABLE. HIGHS IN THE 50S SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE WEST OF BILLINGS...RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VIS...AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSED THE REGION. AREAS
OF LIFR FOG/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...INCLUDING
AT/NEAR KBIL...KMLS...AND KBHK LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 022/037 026/041 026/047 027/055 032/057 033/057 034/057
22/J 23/S 31/B 11/B 22/W 33/W 32/W
LVM 022/043 025/046 022/047 027/054 032/053 033/055 034/055
32/W 22/O 21/B 13/T 22/W 33/W 32/W
HDN 019/039 025/041 025/047 028/056 033/060 034/059 035/059
22/J 24/O 31/B 11/B 12/W 33/W 32/W
MLS 013/034 021/038 024/042 028/052 033/057 034/058 035/058
11/E 23/S 31/B 11/B 12/W 22/W 22/W
4BQ 013/036 019/036 022/041 027/052 032/055 033/056 034/056
03/J 25/S 42/W 11/U 11/B 22/W 22/W
BHK 006/029 012/035 019/038 025/045 030/052 031/054 032/055
01/B 24/S 42/W 11/B 11/B 22/W 22/W
SHR 018/039 023/041 021/042 024/052 029/054 030/055 031/055
23/J 35/O 42/W 11/B 11/B 23/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
ANOTHER WARM DRY SURGE OF AIR MOVES OFF THE CNTL ROCKIES TODAY. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE UPPER MIDDLE OF THE 13 MODEL SUPER
ENSEMBLE FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SD BORDER CAUSING WINDS TO BACK ACROSS
THE NORTH KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70. WE ALSO SEE A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS
SHIELD DEVELOPING OFF THE LARAMIE AND FRONT RANGE LIMITING HEATING
SOMEWHAT. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE
FCST AREA AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SFC LOW ACROSS WRN
NEB. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL JET AND COOLING/FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A SHARP 500 MB TROF INTO ERN WY AT
06Z WHICH CLOSES OFF ACROSS NW NEB BY 12Z. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE
HEIGHTS BACKING IN ALOFT ACROSS WRN SD AT THIS TIME WHICH IS
TROUBLING SINCE THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SOLN IS TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS THE TETONS AND BIG HORN RANGES BUT THEN IT DROPPING
SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS. THIS MORE SRN TRACK RAISES THE POP ACROSS
NWRN NEB BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THE NAM AND GEM REGIONAL THEN BRING
THE RAIN SNOW LINE INTO NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
ATTENTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS CENTER ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...MAINLY THE POTENTIAL OF TWO SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER TYPE
STORMS THAT MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY 12Z
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY WILL CROSS FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES NORTHEAST OUT ONTO PLAINS...DRAGGING MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...BUT INTENSITY/TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST. ATTM GENERALLY FAVOR THE GEM SOLUTION IN
WHICH THE TRACK FAVORS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE/S STILL STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
SNOW WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW BACK ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. ATTM SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY MONDAY...THEN TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE
PTYPE FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC. THE GEM SOLUTION IS WARMER
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE MODEL LIFTS THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
THAN EAST...CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW MAY NOT OCCUR FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WHERE THE CHANGE OVER DOES
OCCUR EARLY...IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WOULD BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS 45 MPH. ATTM ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
20 IN CHERRY AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES IS WHERE THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING THE EARLY CHANGEOVER AND ACCUMULATING SNOW.
FOR THIS...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE FOR THE TWO COUNTIES LISTED AS IMPACTS TO
KVTN...RANCHING...HIGHWAY 20 AND THE POPULOUS CENTERED ALONG THE
HIGHWAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. NOTE...IT COULD VERY
WELL BE THAT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE TWO COUNTIES NOT SEE MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE FAR NORTH
EXPERIENCES NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. A
HIGH END WIND ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY AS WELL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. A STACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE RISES ON THE
ORDER OF UP TO 3 MB PER HOUR WILL LEAD TO NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING
GUST CRITERIA. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT FINE TUNE THE SPECIFICS.
LASTLY...NEGATIVE LI/S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY YIELD A FEW EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...WHETHER SNOW OR RAIN. NO MENTION OF THUNDER
WAS INCLUDED BEYOND 12Z MONDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT
FURTHER.
LOW AMPLITUDE TRANSITORY RIDGING BUILDS ATOP THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN BY MIDWEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PREVAIL AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH OF
INTEREST STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHT OPPORTUNITIES FOR QPF ALSO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND A SW DISTURBANCE.
HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH EJECTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE 4 CORNERS ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE REMAINS
LARGE DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
ECMWF NOW TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND A FAVORABLE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
SANDHILLS. THE GFS REMAINS OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WITH FAR LESS
IMPACTS. DUE TO THE MYRIAD OF WEATHER CURRENTLY GOING ON RIGHT
NOW...FELT IT WAS BEST TO NOT VARY FROM A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH
THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
HIGH CLOUDINESS /VFR CONDITIONS/ WILL STICK AROUND TODAY ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...THE
MAIN THREATS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT IN THE FORMS OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND WIND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH THE WINDS
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE DRASTICALLY WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30
KTS BY DAYBREAK. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KVTN...AFTER 31/09Z WITH A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
BY 31/14Z. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...ANY SNOW WILL EASILY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO IFR. FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING KLBF...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS MUCH LOWER BUT THE WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE...CENTRAL
SANDHILLS...FRENCHMAN BASIN AND THE LOESS PLAINS. THE FORECAST IS A
LOW END RED FLAG WARNING AS THE RAP SHOWS WINDS AT 700MB WEAKENING
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS THEM. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP13...HRRR...NAMDNG AND
AVN MOS MODELS FOR SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS...BUT ABOUT 5 DEGREES F HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-210-219.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR NEZ004-005-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...DS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
ANOTHER WARM DRY SURGE OF AIR MOVES OFF THE CNTL ROCKIES TODAY. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE UPPER MIDDLE OF THE 13 MODEL SUPER
ENSEMBLE FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SD BORDER CAUSING WINDS TO BACK ACROSS
THE NORTH KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70. WE ALSO SEE A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS
SHIELD DEVELOPING OFF THE LARAMIE AND FRONT RANGE LIMITING HEATING
SOMEWHAT. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE
FCST AREA AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SFC LOW ACROSS WRN
NEB. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL JET AND COOLING/FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A SHARP 500 MB TROF INTO ERN WY AT
06Z WHICH CLOSES OFF ACROSS NW NEB BY 12Z. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE
HEIGHTS BACKING IN ALOFT ACROSS WRN SD AT THIS TIME WHICH IS
TROUBLING SINCE THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SOLN IS TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS THE TETONS AND BIG HORN RANGES BUT THEN IT DROPPING
SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS. THIS MORE SRN TRACK RAISES THE POP ACROSS
NWRN NEB BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THE NAM AND GEM REGIONAL THEN BRING
THE RAIN SNOW LINE INTO NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
ATTENTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS CENTER ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...MAINLY THE POTENTIAL OF TWO SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER TYPE
STORMS THAT MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY 12Z
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY WILL CROSS FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES NORTHEAST OUT ONTO PLAINS...DRAGGING MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...BUT INTENSITY/TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST. ATTM GENERALLY FAVOR THE GEM SOLUTION IN
WHICH THE TRACK FAVORS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE/S STILL STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
SNOW WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW BACK ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. ATTM SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY MONDAY...THEN TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE
PTYPE FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC. THE GEM SOLUTION IS WARMER
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE MODEL LIFTS THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
THAN EAST...CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW MAY NOT OCCUR FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WHERE THE CHANGE OVER DOES
OCCUR EARLY...IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WOULD BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS 45 MPH. ATTM ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
20 IN CHERRY AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES IS WHERE THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING THE EARLY CHANGEOVER AND ACCUMULATING SNOW.
FOR THIS...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE FOR THE TWO COUNTIES LISTED AS IMPACTS TO
KVTN...RANCHING...HIGHWAY 20 AND THE POPULOUS CENTERED ALONG THE
HIGHWAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. NOTE...IT COULD VERY
WELL BE THAT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE TWO COUNTIES NOT SEE MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE FAR NORTH
EXPERIENCES NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. A
HIGH END WIND ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY AS WELL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. A STACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE RISES ON THE
ORDER OF UP TO 3 MB PER HOUR WILL LEAD TO NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING
GUST CRITERIA. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT FINE TUNE THE SPECIFICS.
LASTLY...NEGATIVE LI/S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY YIELD A FEW EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...WHETHER SNOW OR RAIN. NO MENTION OF THUNDER
WAS INCLUDED BEYOND 12Z MONDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT
FURTHER.
LOW AMPLITUDE TRANSITORY RIDGING BUILDS ATOP THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN BY MIDWEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PREVAIL AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH OF
INTEREST STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHT OPPORTUNITIES FOR QPF ALSO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND A SW DISTURBANCE.
HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH EJECTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE 4 CORNERS ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE REMAINS
LARGE DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
ECMWF NOW TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND A FAVORABLE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
SANDHILLS. THE GFS REMAINS OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WITH FAR LESS
IMPACTS. DUE TO THE MYRIAD OF WEATHER CURRENTLY GOING ON RIGHT
NOW...FELT IT WAS BEST TO NOT VARY FROM A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH
THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD
DEVELOP EASTWARD. THEREAFTER...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROF/DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN CAL...WILL MOVE
INTO WRN NEB. MVFR IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST...NORTH OF NEBRASKA
HIGHWAY 2. VFR IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE...CENTRAL
SANDHILLS...FRENCHMAN BASIN AND THE LOESS PLAINS. THE FORECAST IS A
LOW END RED FLAG WARNING AS THE RAP SHOWS WINDS AT 700MB WEAKENING
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS THEM. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP13...HRRR...NAMDNG AND
AVN MOS MODELS FOR SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS...BUT ABOUT 5 DEGREES F HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-210-219.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR NEZ004-005-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
ANOTHER WARM DRY SURGE OF AIR MOVES OFF THE CNTL ROCKIES TODAY. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE UPPER MIDDLE OF THE 13 MODEL SUPER
ENSEMBLE FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SD BORDER CAUSING WINDS TO BACK ACROSS
THE NORTH KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70. WE ALSO SEE A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS
SHIELD DEVELOPING OFF THE LARAMIE AND FRONT RANGE LIMITING HEATING
SOMEWHAT. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE
FCST AREA AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SFC LOW ACROSS WRN
NEB. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL JET AND COOLING/FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS A SHARP 500 MB TROF INTO ERN WY AT
06Z WHICH CLOSES OFF ACROSS NW NEB BY 12Z. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE
HEIGHTS BACKING IN ALOFT ACROSS WRN SD AT THIS TIME WHICH IS
TROUBLING SINCE THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SOLN IS TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ACROSS THE TETONS AND BIG HORN RANGES BUT THEN IT DROPPING
SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS. THIS MORE SRN TRACK RAISES THE POP ACROSS
NWRN NEB BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THE NAM AND GEM REGIONAL THEN BRING
THE RAIN SNOW LINE INTO NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
ATTENTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS CENTER ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...MAINLY THE POTENTIAL OF TWO SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER TYPE
STORMS THAT MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY 12Z
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY WILL CROSS FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES NORTHEAST OUT ONTO PLAINS...DRAGGING MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...BUT INTENSITY/TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST. ATTM GENERALLY FAVOR THE GEM SOLUTION IN
WHICH THE TRACK FAVORS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAINLY NORTH
OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE/S STILL STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
SNOW WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW BACK ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. ATTM SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY MONDAY...THEN TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE
PTYPE FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC. THE GEM SOLUTION IS WARMER
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE MODEL LIFTS THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
THAN EAST...CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW MAY NOT OCCUR FOR OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WHERE THE CHANGE OVER DOES
OCCUR EARLY...IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WOULD BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS 45 MPH. ATTM ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
20 IN CHERRY AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES IS WHERE THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING THE EARLY CHANGEOVER AND ACCUMULATING SNOW.
FOR THIS...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE FOR THE TWO COUNTIES LISTED AS IMPACTS TO
KVTN...RANCHING...HIGHWAY 20 AND THE POPULOUS CENTERED ALONG THE
HIGHWAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. NOTE...IT COULD VERY
WELL BE THAT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE TWO COUNTIES NOT SEE MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE FAR NORTH
EXPERIENCES NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. A
HIGH END WIND ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY AS WELL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. A STACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH PRESSURE RISES ON THE
ORDER OF UP TO 3 MB PER HOUR WILL LEAD TO NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING
GUST CRITERIA. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT FINE TUNE THE SPECIFICS.
LASTLY...NEGATIVE LI/S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EARLY MONDAY WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY YIELD A FEW EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...WHETHER SNOW OR RAIN. NO MENTION OF THUNDER
WAS INCLUDED BEYOND 12Z MONDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT
FURTHER.
LOW AMPLITUDE TRANSITORY RIDGING BUILDS ATOP THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN BY MIDWEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PREVAIL AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH OF
INTEREST STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHT OPPORTUNITIES FOR QPF ALSO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND A SW DISTURBANCE.
HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH EJECTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE 4 CORNERS ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE REMAINS
LARGE DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
ECMWF NOW TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND A FAVORABLE TRACK OF THE H5
LOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
SANDHILLS. THE GFS REMAINS OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WITH FAR LESS
IMPACTS. DUE TO THE MYRIAD OF WEATHER CURRENTLY GOING ON RIGHT
NOW...FELT IT WAS BEST TO NOT VARY FROM A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WITH
THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ON SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE KVTN TERMINAL. THEREFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY WINDS 12G18KT CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z. HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR BOTH
TERMINALS...BUT VFR WILL BE MAINTAINED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE...CENTRAL
SANDHILLS...FRENCHMAN BASIN AND THE LOESS PLAINS. THE FORECAST IS A
LOW END RED FLAG WARNING AS THE RAP SHOWS WINDS AT 700MB WEAKENING
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS THEM. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP13...HRRR...NAMDNG AND
AVN MOS MODELS FOR SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS...BUT ABOUT 5 DEGREES F HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-210-219.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR NEZ004-005-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1044 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING...AND TAPER OFF
TO DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE
ENTIRE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE ON DELAWARE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS
IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...BECOMING CAPTURED BY CLOSED UPPER
LOW. MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS LIFTED NORTH OF
FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AND GENERALLY IN FORM OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN VERMONT AND LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN NEW YORK. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/ICE TODAY SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH. NO CHANGES TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL REASSESS AROUND MIDDAY. SITUATION MORE
COMPLICATED IN PARTS OF VERMONT WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL ICING
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. TEMPS TODAY NOT CHANGING MUCH FROM CURRENT
READINGS. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SOME FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
EARLIER DISCUSSIONS BELOW...
AS OF 716 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL ADVISORIES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VERMONT AS BULK OF PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA AND PTYPE TRANSITIONS TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST PLAYING OUT FAIRLY WELL WITH A
MYRIAD OF PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ACROSS VERMONT...PRECIP STARTED OUT AS A MIX
OF SNOW...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BUT AS OF 5 AM SEEING MAINLY A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MEANWHILE...ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK SNOW
HAS BEEN THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BEING REPORTED. MODEL OF CHOICE OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN
THE RAP WHICH CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE
VERY WELL SHOWING +0C LAYER AT 850MB SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH VT
WHILE FROM THE SURFACE-925MB REMAINED NEARLY ISOTHERMAL. AS THE
BULK OF PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WE`RE LEFT WITH SUPER-SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND ZERO ICE
IN THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT ALONG WITH COOLING MID
LEVELS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DUE TO
COLDER PROFILES. TEMPS WILL BASICALLY GO NOWHERE TODAY UNDER THICK
CLOUD COVER AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...HOLDING STEADY IN
THE LOW/MID 30S TO UPPER 20S AREA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM EDT SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE TEMPS
AT MID-LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GREATEST CHANCES OF
ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY WITH UPPER LOW....AND WINTER WX ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH LIKELY.
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
REGION AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ANOTHER
NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO 20S. SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY UNDER THE RIDGE WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SUNDAY...SEASONABLE EARLY SPRING TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE
RULE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. BEST SHOT
AT PCPN WILL OCCUR TUE NT/WED MORNING...THEN AGAIN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THUS PCPN SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT BEST WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY...ESP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND A LITTLE MORE
ROBUST SO A BETTER SHOT AREA WIDE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. IN
BETWEEN (WED AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING) GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CLEAR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SPOT 50 HERE
AND THERE POSSIBLE WED-FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 25 TO 35
THOUGH MAINLY 20S WED NT/THU NT WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL AND BETTER SHOT AT PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE REGION AS
WIDESPREAD MIXED PCPN TAPERS TO DRIZZLE OR MUCH LIGHER/SCATTERED
RAINS/SNOWS. TERMINAL SPECIFIC DETAILS BELOW...
KBTV...MAINLY ON AND OFF LT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TAPERING OFF AFTER 21-00Z.
IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDS EXPECTED...WITH MAIN FOCUS OF IFR BEFORE 18Z.
WINDS NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY 7-15 AND OCCLY GUSTY TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...ABATING TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 00Z.
KPBG...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH 21-00Z THEN TAPERING OFF. IFR/MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH FOCUS OF IFR BEFORE 18Z. WINDS
NORTHERLY 10-20 KTS AND OCCNLY GUSTY TODAY...ABATING TO AROUND 10
KTS AFTER 00Z.
KMPV...MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/FZRA/FZDZ THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY 6-12 KTS.
KRUT...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...THROUGH 00Z...WITH
PATCHES OF -FZDZ THEREAFTER. MIX OF VFR/MVFR FLYING CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS EASTERLY 8 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS...TRENDING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 18Z ONWARD.
KMSS...PERIODS LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z...TAPERING TO SCT
SHSN THEREAFTER. IFR FLYING CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MORNING...TRENDING MVFR AFTER 18Z. WINDS NORTHEASTERLY 15 TO
20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED...TRENDING NORTH AROUND 10
KTS AFTER 00Z. CONSIDERABLE BLSN LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.
KSLK...LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED WITH SOME MIX OF FZRA/PL
POSSIBLE...TAPERING TO SCT SHSN AFTER 18Z. WIDESPREAD
IFR...TRENDING MVFR AFTER 18Z. WINDS NORTHEASTERLY 6-12
KTS...OCCNL GUSTY TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY TO 18Z MONDAY...TRENDING SLOWLY TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/FZRA TAPERS OFF. BEST SHOT AT CONTINUED LIGHT
PMIXED CPN AND MVFR/IFR AT ERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.
AGAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF BETTER FLIGHT CONDS AT NRN NY
TERMINALS WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES REGION.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SUNDAY...COMPLEX HYDRO SITUATION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERSHEDS TODAY WHERE A SOAKING RAINFALL ON
THE ORDER OF 1-1.75 INCHES WILL OCCUR. THIS IS A BLENDED MULTI-
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH APPEARS THE BEST COURSE FOR NOW GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. USING THIS QPF AND ALLOWING FOR 0.01-0.03
INCHES OF SWE MELT PER HOUR INDICATES MODEST TO LOCALLY SHARP
RISES IN EXCESS OF 4-5 FEET TODAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD OPEN WATER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN AT LEAST SOME ABSORPTION OF THE
RAIN INTO THE EXISTENT "NON-RIPE" SNOWPACK...THESE RISES MAY BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ICE MOVEMENT AND/OR BREAKUP ACROSS
SCATTERED WATERSHEDS. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SEEING ICE
MOVEMENT/BREAKUP TYPICALLY OCCURS WHEN RISES ARE ON THE ORDER OF
3X THE ICE THICKNESS. WHILE WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS
COMPLEX SITUATION PANS OUT...CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ007-008-
010-012-018-019.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VTZ009>012-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR VTZ011.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ026>029-035-087.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ030-
031-034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING...AND TAPER OFF
TO DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE
ENTIRE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 716 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL ADVISORIES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VERMONT AS BULK OF PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA AND PTYPE TRANSITIONS TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST PLAYING OUT FAIRLY WELL WITH A
MYRIAD OF PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ACROSS VERMONT...PRECIP STARTED OUT AS A MIX
OF SNOW...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BUT AS OF 5 AM SEEING MAINLY A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MEANWHILE...ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK SNOW
HAS BEEN THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BEING REPORTED. MODEL OF CHOICE OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN
THE RAP WHICH CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE
VERY WELL SHOWING +0C LAYER AT 850MB SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH VT
WHILE FROM THE SURFACE-925MB REMAINED NEARLY ISOTHERMAL. AS THE
BULK OF PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WE`RE LEFT WITH SUPER-SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND ZERO ICE
IN THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT ALONG WITH COOLING MID
LEVELS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DUE TO
COLDER PROFILES. TEMPS WILL BASICALLY GO NOWHERE TODAY UNDER THICK
CLOUD COVER AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...HOLDING STEADY IN
THE LOW/MID 30S TO UPPER 20S AREA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM EDT SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE TEMPS
AT MID-LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GREATEST CHANCES OF
ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY WITH UPPER LOW....AND WINTER WX ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH LIKELY.
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
REGION AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ANOTHER
NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO 20S. SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY UNDER THE RIDGE WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SUNDAY...SEASONABLE EARLY SPRING TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE
RULE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. BEST SHOT
AT PCPN WILL OCCUR TUE NT/WED MORNING...THEN AGAIN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THUS PCPN SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT BEST WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY...ESP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND A LITTLE MORE
ROBUST SO A BETTER SHOT AREA WIDE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. IN
BETWEEN (WED AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING) GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CLEAR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SPOT 50 HERE
AND THERE POSSIBLE WED-FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 25 TO 35
THOUGH MAINLY 20S WED NT/THU NT WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL AND BETTER SHOT AT PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE REGION AS
WIDESPREAD MIXED PCPN TAPERS TO DRIZZLE OR MUCH LIGHER/SCATTERED
RAINS/SNOWS. TERMINAL SPECIFIC DETAILS BELOW...
KBTV...MAINLY ON AND OFF LT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TAPERING OFF AFTER 21-00Z.
IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDS EXPECTED...WITH MAIN FOCUS OF IFR BEFORE 18Z.
WINDS NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY 7-15 AND OCCLY GUSTY TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...ABATING TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 00Z.
KPBG...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH 21-00Z THEN TAPERING OFF. IFR/MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH FOCUS OF IFR BEFORE 18Z. WINDS
NORTHERLY 10-20 KTS AND OCCNLY GUSTY TODAY...ABATING TO AROUND 10
KTS AFTER 00Z.
KMPV...MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/FZRA/FZDZ THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY 6-12 KTS.
KRUT...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...THROUGH 00Z...WITH
PATCHES OF -FZDZ THEREAFTER. MIX OF VFR/MVFR FLYING CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS EASTERLY 8 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS...TRENDING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 18Z ONWARD.
KMSS...PERIODS LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z...TAPERING TO SCT
SHSN THEREAFTER. IFR FLYING CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MORNING...TRENDING MVFR AFTER 18Z. WINDS NORTHEASTERLY 15 TO
20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED...TRENDING NORTH AROUND 10
KTS AFTER 00Z. CONSIDERABLE BLSN LIKELY THROUGH 21Z.
KSLK...LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED WITH SOME MIX OF FZRA/PL
POSSIBLE...TAPERING TO SCT SHSN AFTER 18Z. WIDESPREAD
IFR...TRENDING MVFR AFTER 18Z. WINDS NORTHEASTERLY 6-12
KTS...OCCNL GUSTY TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY TO 18Z MONDAY...TRENDING SLOWLY TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/FZRA TAPERS OFF. BEST SHOT AT CONTINUED LIGHT
PMIXED CPN AND MVFR/IFR AT ERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.
AGAIN...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF BETTER FLIGHT CONDS AT NRN NY
TERMINALS WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES REGION.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SUNDAY...COMPLEX HYDRO SITUATION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERSHEDS TODAY WHERE A SOAKING RAINFALL ON
THE ORDER OF 1-1.75 INCHES WILL OCCUR. THIS IS A BLENDED MULTI-
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH APPEARS THE BEST COURSE FOR NOW GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. USING THIS QPF AND ALLOWING FOR 0.01-0.03
INCHES OF SWE MELT PER HOUR INDICATES MODEST TO LOCALLY SHARP
RISES IN EXCESS OF 4-5 FEET TODAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD OPEN WATER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN AT LEAST SOME ABSORPTION OF THE
RAIN INTO THE EXISTENT "NON-RIPE" SNOWPACK...THESE RISES MAY BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ICE MOVEMENT AND/OR BREAKUP ACROSS
SCATTERED WATERSHEDS. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SEEING ICE
MOVEMENT/BREAKUP TYPICALLY OCCURS WHEN RISES ARE ON THE ORDER OF
3X THE ICE THICKNESS. WHILE WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS
COMPLEX SITUATION PANS OUT...CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ007-008-
010-012-018-019.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VTZ009>012-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR VTZ011.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ026>029-035-087.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ030-
031-034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
717 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING...AND TAPER OFF
TO DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE
ENTIRE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 716 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL ADVISORIES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VERMONT AS BULK OF PRECIP SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA AND PTYPE TRANSITIONS TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST PLAYING OUT FAIRLY WELL WITH A
MYRIAD OF PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ACROSS VERMONT...PRECIP STARTED OUT AS A MIX
OF SNOW...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BUT AS OF 5 AM SEEING MAINLY A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MEANWHILE...ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK SNOW
HAS BEEN THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BEING REPORTED. MODEL OF CHOICE OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN
THE RAP WHICH CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE
VERY WELL SHOWING +0C LAYER AT 850MB SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH VT
WHILE FROM THE SURFACE-925MB REMAINED NEARLY ISOTHERMAL. AS THE
BULK OF PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WE`RE LEFT WITH SUPER-SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND ZERO ICE
IN THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT ALONG WITH COOLING MID
LEVELS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DUE TO
COLDER PROFILES. TEMPS WILL BASICALLY GO NOWHERE TODAY UNDER THICK
CLOUD COVER AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...HOLDING STEADY IN
THE LOW/MID 30S TO UPPER 20S AREA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM EDT SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE TEMPS
AT MID-LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GREATEST CHANCES OF
ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY WITH UPPER LOW....AND WINTER WX ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH LIKELY.
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
REGION AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ANOTHER
NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO 20S. SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY UNDER THE RIDGE WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SUNDAY...SEASONABLE EARLY SPRING TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE
RULE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. BEST SHOT
AT PCPN WILL OCCUR TUE NT/WED MORNING...THEN AGAIN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THUS PCPN SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT BEST WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY...ESP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND A LITTLE MORE
ROBUST SO A BETTER SHOT AREA WIDE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. IN
BETWEEN (WED AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING) GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CLEAR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SPOT 50 HERE
AND THERE POSSIBLE WED-FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 25 TO 35
THOUGH MAINLY 20S WED NT/THU NT WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL AND BETTER SHOT AT PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE REGION IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY MIXED PCPN AND/OR RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST DRAWS COPIOUS MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
TERMINAL SPECIFIC DETAILS BELOW...
KBTV...MIX OF RAIN/FZRA THROUGH 12Z...THEN MAINLY LT RAIN TAPERING
TO SHOWERS AFTER 18Z. VFR/MVFR FLYING CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD W/BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY 7-15 KTS.
KMPV...MIX OF RAIN/FZRA THROUGH 12Z...THEN MAINLY LT RAIN TAPERING
TO SHOWERS AFTER 18Z. IFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS LGT AND VRB THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY 6-12 KTS
THEREAFTER.
KRUT...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN...TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY 18Z. MIX OF
VFR/MVFR FLYING CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS EASTERLY
8 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...TRENDING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
AFTER 12Z.
KPBG...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 10-12Z...THEN MIXING WITH
SLEET. IFR LIKELY THROUGH 15Z...TRENDING MVFR THEREAFTER. SOME MIX
WITH RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z BEFORE PCPN TAPERS TO SHOWERS.
WINDS NORTHERLY 10-18 KTS AND TRENDING GUSTY TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMSS...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...TAPERING TO SCT SHSN AFTER 00Z MONDAY. IFR FLYING CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH AFTERNOON...TRENDING MVFR AFTER 18Z. WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY 15 TO 22 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED...ABATING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLSN LIKELY.
KSLK...LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED WITH SOME MIX OF FZRA/PL
POSSIBLE...TAPERING TO SCT SHSN/SHRA AFTER 18Z. WIDESPREAD
IFR...TRENDING MVFR AFTER 18Z. WINDS NORTHEASTERLY 6-12
KTS...OCCNL GUSTY TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY TO 18Z MONDAY...TRENDING SLOWLY TO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST AS LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TAPERS OFF. BEST SHOT AT CONTINUED LIGHT
PCPN AND MVFR/IFR AT ERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT. AGAIN...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF BETTER FLIGHT CONDS AT NRN NY TERMINALS WITH
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES REGION.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR W/MVFR PSBL LATE THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM SW...BRINGING PRECIP SOUTH TO NORTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SUNDAY...COMPLEX HYDRO SITUATION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERSHEDS TODAY WHERE A SOAKING RAINFALL ON
THE ORDER OF 1-1.75 INCHES WILL OCCUR. THIS IS A BLENDED MULTI-
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH APPEARS THE BEST COURSE FOR NOW GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. USING THIS QPF AND ALLOWING FOR 0.01-0.03
INCHES OF SWE MELT PER HOUR INDICATES MODEST TO LOCALLY SHARP
RISES IN EXCESS OF 4-5 FEET TODAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD OPEN WATER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN AT LEAST SOME ABSORPTION OF THE
RAIN INTO THE EXISTENT "NON-RIPE" SNOWPACK...THESE RISES MAY BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ICE MOVEMENT AND/OR BREAKUP ACROSS
SCATTERED WATERSHEDS. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SEEING ICE
MOVEMENT/BREAKUP TYPICALLY OCCURS WHEN RISES ARE ON THE ORDER OF
3X THE ICE THICKNESS. WHILE WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS
COMPLEX SITUATION PANS OUT...CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ007-008-
010-012-018-019.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VTZ009>012-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR VTZ011.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ026>029-035-087.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ030-
031-034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...BANACOS/JMG
HYDROLOGY...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
511 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING...AND TAPER OFF
TO DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE
ENTIRE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 510 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST PLAYING OUT FAIRLY WELL WITH A
MYRIAD OF PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ACROSS VERMONT...PRECIP STARTED OUT AS A MIX
OF SNOW...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN BUT AS OF 5 AM SEEING MAINLY A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MEANWHILE...ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK SNOW
HAS BEEN THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BEING REPORTED. MODEL OF CHOICE OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN
THE RAP WHICH CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE
VERY WELL SHOWING +0C LAYER AT 850MB SHIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH VT WHILE FROM THE SURFACE-925MB REMAINED NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL. AS THE BULK OF PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING...WE`RE LEFT WITH SUPER-SATURATED LOW LEVELS
AND ZERO ICE IN THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH REGION ALOFT ALONG WITH
COOLING MID LEVELS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY DUE TO COLDER PROFILES. TEMPS WILL BASICALLY GO NOWHERE
TODAY UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW/MID 30S TO UPPER 20S AREA-WIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 510 AM EDT SUNDAY...FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE TEMPS
AT MID-LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GREATEST CHANCES OF
ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY WITH UPPER LOW....AND WINTER WX ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH LIKELY.
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
REGION AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ANOTHER
NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO 20S. SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY UNDER THE RIDGE WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SUNDAY...SEASONABLE EARLY SPRING TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE
RULE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. BEST SHOT
AT PCPN WILL OCCUR TUE NT/WED MORNING...THEN AGAIN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THUS PCPN SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT BEST WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY...ESP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND A LITTLE MORE
ROBUST SO A BETTER SHOT AREA WIDE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. IN
BETWEEN (WED AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING) GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CLEAR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SPOT 50 HERE
AND THERE POSSIBLE WED-FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 25 TO 35
THOUGH MAINLY 20S WED NT/THU NT WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL AND BETTER SHOT AT PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE REGION IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY MIXED PCPN AND/OR RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST DRAWS COPIOUS MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
TERMINAL SPECIFIC DETAILS BELOW...
KBTV...MIX OF RAIN/FZRA THROUGH 12Z...THEN MAINLY LT RAIN TAPERING
TO SHOWERS AFTER 18Z. VFR/MVFR FLYING CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD W/BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY 7-15 KTS.
KMPV...MIX OF RAIN/FZRA THROUGH 12Z...THEN MAINLY LT RAIN TAPERING
TO SHOWERS AFTER 18Z. IFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS LGT AND VRB THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY 6-12 KTS
THEREAFTER.
KRUT...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN...TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY 18Z. MIX OF
VFR/MVFR FLYING CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS EASTERLY
8 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...TRENDING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
AFTER 12Z.
KPBG...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 10-12Z...THEN MIXING WITH
SLEET. IFR LIKELY THROUGH 15Z...TRENDING MVFR THEREAFTER. SOME MIX
WITH RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z BEFORE PCPN TAPERS TO SHOWERS.
WINDS NORTHERLY 10-18 KTS AND TRENDING GUSTY TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMSS...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...TAPERING TO SCT SHSN AFTER 00Z MONDAY. IFR FLYING CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH AFTERNOON...TRENDING MVFR AFTER 18Z. WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY 15 TO 22 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED...ABATING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLSN LIKELY.
KSLK...LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED WITH SOME MIX OF FZRA/PL
POSSIBLE...TAPERING TO SCT SHSN/SHRA AFTER 18Z. WIDESPREAD
IFR...TRENDING MVFR AFTER 18Z. WINDS NORTHEASTERLY 6-12
KTS...OCCNL GUSTY TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY TO 18Z MONDAY...TRENDING SLOWLY TO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST AS LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TAPERS OFF. BEST SHOT AT CONTINUED LIGHT
PCPN AND MVFR/IFR AT ERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT. AGAIN...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF BETTER FLIGHT CONDS AT NRN NY TERMINALS WITH
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES REGION.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR W/MVFR PSBL LATE THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM SW...BRINGING PRECIP SOUTH TO NORTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SUNDAY...COMPLEX HYDRO SITUATION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERSHEDS TODAY WHERE A SOAKING RAINFALL ON
THE ORDER OF 1-1.75 INCHES WILL OCCUR. THIS IS A BLENDED MULTI-
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH APPEARS THE BEST COURSE FOR NOW GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. USING THIS QPF AND ALLOWING FOR 0.01-0.03
INCHES OF SWE MELT PER HOUR INDICATES MODEST TO LOCALLY SHARP
RISES IN EXCESS OF 4-5 FEET TODAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD OPEN WATER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN AT LEAST SOME ABSORPTION OF THE
RAIN INTO THE EXISTENT "NON-RIPE" SNOWPACK...THESE RISES MAY BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ICE MOVEMENT AND/OR BREAKUP ACROSS
SCATTERED WATERSHEDS. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SEEING ICE
MOVEMENT/BREAKUP TYPICALLY OCCURS WHEN RISES ARE ON THE ORDER OF
3X THE ICE THICKNESS. WHILE WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS
COMPLEX SITUATION PANS OUT...CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VTZ001>006-009-016-017.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VTZ009>012-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ007-008-
010-012-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR VTZ011.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ030-
031-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ026>029-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...BANACOS/JMG
HYDROLOGY...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW...WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
VERMONT. HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT...COMBINED WITH
MELTING SNOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED HYDRO CONCERNS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED TO UPGRADE PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
PRECIPITATION HAS NOW MADE IT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT...ADIRONDACKS...AND INTO WATERTOWN NEW YORK. SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE IT MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL VERMONT BETWEEN
9-10 PM...THE BURLINGTON AREA 10-11 PM..AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY BY MIDNIGHT. HEAVIEST PRECIP STILL APPEARS IT WILL FALL BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN VERY TRICKY WITH
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO 825-MB CENTERED
AROUND 0C. DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TO COOL THE
COLUMN AT LEAST IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK. ONE CAVEAT TO
NOTE...LATEST RAP SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND WOULD
FAVOR MORE RAIN OVER SNOW/SLEET FOR MUCH OF VERMONT. STILL THINK
THAT ENOUGH COOLING TO TAKE PLACE FOR A GENERAL 2-5" OF SNOW FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO 32 DEGREES OR LOWER...WITH LOW LEVEL COLD
NORTHEAST FLOW LOCKED IN. WITH AT LEAST 0.75" OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION HEADED INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR...FELT IT
WAS NECESSARY TO UPGRADE TO WARNINGS THERE. EVEN THE WARMER RAP
SOLUTIONS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL FROZEN PRECIPITATION OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECTING PRIMARILY SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE IS STILL QUITE MARGINAL SO SOME SLEET/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN
MIX STILL LIKELY AT TIMES. LOOKING AT 4-8" THERE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
COLD NORTHEAST WINDS ALSO LOCKED INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MORE MARGINAL AS ITS A DEEPER
VALLEY...AND PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHTER...SO ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS OF
3-5" STILL LOOK GOOD.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT...PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
MAINLY RAIN...WITH SOME MIXED SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH...WITH SOME ICE
ACCRUAL OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. BIGGEST
CONCERN THERE WILL BE 1-1.5" OF RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO ICE JAM
FLOODING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SATURDAY...FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THIS DUE TO SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SLOWLY
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE...SO CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT WE WILL AT
LEAST SEE SOME LIGHT SLEET AND OR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER EASTERN
ZONES DUE PROXIMITY WITH UPPER LOW. TEMPS MARGINAL FOR SNOW/RAIN
OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN. LOOK FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS MONDAY NEAR 40. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SUNDAY...SEASONABLE EARLY SPRING TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE
RULE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. BEST SHOT
AT PCPN WILL OCCUR TUE NT/WED MORNING...THEN AGAIN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THUS PCPN SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT BEST WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY...ESP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND A LITTLE MORE
ROBUST SO A BETTER SHOT AREA WIDE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. IN
BETWEEN (WED AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING) GENERALLY HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CLEAR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SPOT 50 HERE
AND THERE POSSIBLE WED-FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 25 TO 35
THOUGH MAINLY 20S WED NT/THU NT WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL AND BETTER SHOT AT PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE REGION IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY MIXED PCPN AND/OR RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST DRAWS COPIOUS MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
TERMINAL SPECIFIC DETAILS BELOW...
KBTV...MIX OF RAIN/FZRA THROUGH 12Z...THEN MAINLY LT RAIN TAPERING
TO SHOWERS AFTER 18Z. VFR/MVFR FLYING CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD W/BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY 7-15 KTS.
KMPV...MIX OF RAIN/FZRA THROUGH 12Z...THEN MAINLY LT RAIN TAPERING
TO SHOWERS AFTER 18Z. IFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS LGT AND VRB THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY 6-12 KTS
THEREAFTER.
KRUT...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN...TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY 18Z. MIX OF
VFR/MVFR FLYING CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS EASTERLY
8 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...TRENDING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
AFTER 12Z.
KPBG...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 10-12Z...THEN MIXING WITH
SLEET. IFR LIKELY THROUGH 15Z...TRENDING MVFR THEREAFTER. SOME MIX
WITH RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z BEFORE PCPN TAPERS TO SHOWERS.
WINDS NORTHERLY 10-18 KTS AND TRENDING GUSTY TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMSS...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...TAPERING TO SCT SHSN AFTER 00Z MONDAY. IFR FLYING CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH AFTERNOON...TRENDING MVFR AFTER 18Z. WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY 15 TO 22 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED...ABATING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLSN LIKELY.
KSLK...LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED WITH SOME MIX OF FZRA/PL
POSSIBLE...TAPERING TO SCT SHSN/SHRA AFTER 18Z. WIDESPREAD
IFR...TRENDING MVFR AFTER 18Z. WINDS NORTHEASTERLY 6-12
KTS...OCCNL GUSTY TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY TO 18Z MONDAY...TRENDING SLOWLY TO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST AS LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TAPERS OFF. BEST SHOT AT CONTINUED LIGHT
PCPN AND MVFR/IFR AT ERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT. AGAIN...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF BETTER FLIGHT CONDS AT NRN NY TERMINALS WITH
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES REGION.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR W/MVFR PSBL LATE THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM SW...BRINGING PRECIP SOUTH TO NORTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SUNDAY...COMPLEX HYDRO SITUATION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERSHEDS TODAY WHERE A SOAKING RAINFALL ON
THE ORDER OF 1-1.75 INCHES WILL OCCUR. THIS IS A BLENDED MULTI-
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH APPEARS THE BEST COURSE FOR NOW GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. USING THIS QPF AND ALLOWING FOR 0.01-0.03
INCHES OF SWE MELT PER HOUR INDICATES MODEST TO LOCALLY SHARP
RISES IN EXCESS OF 4-5 FEET TODAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD OPEN WATER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN AT LEAST SOME ABSORPTION OF THE
RAIN INTO THE EXISTENT "NON-RIPE" SNOWPACK...THESE RISES MAY BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ICE MOVEMENT AND/OR BREAKUP ACROSS
SCATTERED WATERSHEDS. THIS SEEMS LOGICAL SEEING ICE
MOVEMENT/BREAKUP TYPICALLY OCCURS WHEN RISES ARE ON THE ORDER OF
3X THE ICE THICKNESS. WHILE WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS
COMPLEX SITUATION PANS OUT...CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VTZ001>010-012-016>019.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VTZ009>012-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ030-
031-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ026>029-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...JMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
133 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW...WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
VERMONT. HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT...COMBINED WITH
MELTING SNOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED HYDRO CONCERNS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 840 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED TO UPGRADE PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
PRECIPITATION HAS NOW MADE IT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT...ADIRONDACKS...AND INTO WATERTOWN NEW YORK. SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE IT MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL VERMONT BETWEEN
9-10 PM...THE BURLINGTON AREA 10-11 PM..AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY BY MIDNIGHT. HEAVIEST PRECIP STILL APPEARS IT WILL FALL BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN VERY TRICKY WITH
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO 825-MB CENTERED
AROUND 0C. DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TO COOL THE
COLUMN AT LEAST IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK. ONE CAVEAT TO
NOTE...LATEST RAP SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND WOULD
FAVOR MORE RAIN OVER SNOW/SLEET FOR MUCH OF VERMONT. STILL THINK
THAT ENOUGH COOLING TO TAKE PLACE FOR A GENERAL 2-5" OF SNOW FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO 32 DEGREES OR LOWER...WITH LOW LEVEL COLD
NORTHEAST FLOW LOCKED IN. WITH AT LEAST 0.75" OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION HEADED INTO SUB-FREEZING AIR...FELT IT
WAS NECESSARY TO UPGRADE TO WARNINGS THERE. EVEN THE WARMER RAP
SOLUTIONS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL FROZEN PRECIPITATION OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECTING PRIMARILY SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE IS STILL QUITE MARGINAL SO SOME SLEET/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN
MIX STILL LIKELY AT TIMES. LOOKING AT 4-8" THERE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
COLD NORTHEAST WINDS ALSO LOCKED INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MORE MARGINAL AS ITS A DEEPER
VALLEY...AND PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHTER...SO ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS OF
3-5" STILL LOOK GOOD.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT...PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
MAINLY RAIN...WITH SOME MIXED SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH...WITH SOME ICE
ACCRUAL OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. BIGGEST
CONCERN THERE WILL BE 1-1.5" OF RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO ICE JAM
FLOODING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SATURDAY...FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THIS DUE TO SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SLOWLY
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE...SO CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT WE WILL AT
LEAST SEE SOME LIGHT SLEET AND OR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER EASTERN
ZONES DUE PROXIMITY WITH UPPER LOW. TEMPS MARGINAL FOR SNOW/RAIN
OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN. LOOK FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS MONDAY NEAR 40. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...DRY START TO THE PERIOD TUESDAY
BEFORE UPPER LVL TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SFC
LOW...TRAVELS FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES NEWD NEAR JAMES BAY BY MID
WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL HAVE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
SOUTH...WHICH WILL BRING LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NGT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND MAIN UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL BE FAR NORTH OF THE FA.
FOR ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR...TUESDAY NGT WILL SEE SOME
SNOW...BUT WARMING TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION SN INTO RA
BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL USA WILL BRING WARM FRONT
TO THE NE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH
ECMWF PERSISTING WITH RIDGE. THIS WOULD KEEP THREAT OF PRECIP TO
OUR SOUTH THRU LATE FRIDAY. MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK GOING INTO THE WKND.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S IN THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE U20S-L30S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S IN THE MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE REGION IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY MIXED PCPN AND/OR RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST DRAWS COPIOUS MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
TERMINAL SPECIFIC DETAILS BELOW...
KBTV...MIX OF RAIN/FZRA THROUGH 12Z...THEN MAINLY LT RAIN TAPERING
TO SHOWERS AFTER 18Z. VFR/MVFR FLYING CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD W/BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY 7-15 KTS.
KMPV...MIX OF RAIN/FZRA THROUGH 12Z...THEN MAINLY LT RAIN TAPERING
TO SHOWERS AFTER 18Z. IFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS LGT AND VRB THROUGH 12Z...THEN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY 6-12 KTS
THEREAFTER.
KRUT...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN...TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY 18Z. MIX OF
VFR/MVFR FLYING CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS EASTERLY
8 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...TRENDING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
AFTER 12Z.
KPBG...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH 10-12Z...THEN MIXING WITH
SLEET. IFR LIKELY THROUGH 15Z...TRENDING MVFR THEREAFTER. SOME MIX
WITH RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z BEFORE PCPN TAPERS TO SHOWERS.
WINDS NORTHERLY 10-18 KTS AND TRENDING GUSTY TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
KMSS...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...TAPERING TO SCT SHSN AFTER 00Z MONDAY. IFR FLYING CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH AFTERNOON...TRENDING MVFR AFTER 18Z. WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY 15 TO 22 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED...ABATING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD EVENING. CONSIDERABLE BLSN LIKELY.
KSLK...LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED WITH SOME MIX OF FZRA/PL
POSSIBLE...TAPERING TO SCT SHSN/SHRA AFTER 18Z. WIDESPREAD
IFR...TRENDING MVFR AFTER 18Z. WINDS NORTHEASTERLY 6-12
KTS...OCCNL GUSTY TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MONDAY TO 18Z MONDAY...TRENDING SLOWLY TO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST AS LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TAPERS OFF. BEST SHOT AT CONTINUED LIGHT
PCPN AND MVFR/IFR AT ERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT. AGAIN...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF BETTER FLIGHT CONDS AT NRN NY TERMINALS WITH
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES REGION.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR W/MVFR PSBL LATE THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM SW...BRINGING PRECIP SOUTH TO NORTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO EDGE INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE THIS AFTN...PROGRESSING NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN OUR SOUTHERN
WATERSHEDS RECEIVING THE MOST RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 1-2
INCHES. AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL SEE MORE OF A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
WITH SOUTHERN WATERSHEDS RECEIVING MOSTLY RAIN...EXPECT SNOWPACK
TO ABSORB SOME OF THIS RAINFALL AS TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...LEADING TO LIMITED
MELTING OF SNOWPACK. ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW
WATER MELT PER HOUR EXPECTED ON TOP OF RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN
MODEST TO LOCALLY SHARP RISES IN EXCESS OF 4-5 FEET SUNDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS INDICATE NO RIVER FLOODING
EXPECTED....BUT WATER LEVEL RISES MAY BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE ICE MOVEMENT AND/OR BREAKUP ACROSS SCATTERED WATERSHEDS.
WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VTZ001>010-012-016>019.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VTZ009>012-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ030-
031-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ026>029-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING... AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST PULLING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
UPDATE FROM 650 AM: LATEST RAP MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES A
VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTIVE OF A CHANCE OF A LITTLE WET
SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE TRIAD FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OUR WEATHER OBSERVER AT GSO AIRPORT JUST REPORTED A FEW
FLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS THERE RECENTLY. WITH A FAIRLY
DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER... STILL EXPECT VERY LOW PRECIP AMOUNTS... BUT
THE WET BULB BRIEFLY DROPS CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THE SURFACE EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE TRIAD REGION... WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE COLUMN
BELOW FREEZING. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF A FEW SNOWFLAKES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE NW CWA. -GIH
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS AND
POTENTIALLY ADVERSE IMPACTS SUCH AS DOWNED BRANCHES AND WEAKLY
ROOTED TREES. CURRENTLY... SHORT BANDS OF SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALLY
ENHANCED WINDS CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER SW VA
THIS MORNING... MAINLY AFFECTING THE NRN CWA AS POCKETS OF VORTICITY
STREAK TO THE NNE ON THE SRN/ERN SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NC/VA STATE LINE THROUGH
MIDDAY... SHIFTING NE OFF THE TIDEWATER/DELMARVA SHORE DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... AND IT`S EXPECTED TO BRING PATCHY SHOWERS
(MOVING MORE WEST-TO-EAST) THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NRN
CWA... WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS SUPPORT A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE AT 850-700 MB.
THE COMPARATIVELY DRY AND WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER HOWEVER WILL
GREATLY LIMIT QPF. REGARDING TODAY`S WIND... THE MSLP GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DEEP SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/SRN
DELMARVA AND THE INCOMING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE WEST TIGHTENS UP
THIS MORNING... AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS HIGH-RES MODEL
OUTPUT SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ALL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15-25 MPH MAINLY OVER THE WRN AND SRN HALVES OF THE CENTRAL NC
FORECAST AREA... AND TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN THE GROWING MIXED
LAYER INDICATES GUSTS OF 30-36 KTS OVER THIS SAME AREA. WHILE THESE
SPEEDS MAY NOT QUITE REACH OUR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA EVERYWHERE...
THE ANTICIPATED IMPACTS (A FEW DOWNED BRANCHES/TREES AND SPORADIC
POWER OUTAGES) WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY... TO BE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TRIANGLE THROUGH MID EVENING
(WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE). BELOW-NORMAL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN TODAY... AND
EXPECT HIGHS OF 53-62... AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TO OUR NE AFTER
NIGHTFALL AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE (100-120 M MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES)
SHOULD FOSTER QUICK CLEARING FROM WSW TO ENE. WINDS WILL DECREASE
BUT SHOULD STILL HOLD UP ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS STIRRED
OVERNIGHT... KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING DOWN TO THE FORECAST DEW
POINTS (WHICH SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30). AS SUCH...
EXPECT LOWS TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. DESPITE LOWS IN THE MID
30S IN MANY AREAS... THE DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT... BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS LATER TODAY. LOWS
MAINLY 35-40. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY... WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE COLUMN AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN
AT THE SURFACE... AND MID LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BREEZE OUT OF THE NW SHOULD PERSIST BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WE
SHOULD SEE TODAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RECOVER NICELY TO NEAR-
NORMAL LEVELS MON MORNING AND RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY...
SUPPORTING HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S NE TO MID 70S SW... A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS MON NIGHT WILL
OFFSET THE CALM TO VERY LIGHT WINDS TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH. LOWS 38-42... JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY TUESDAY
WITH A SURFACE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WARM
PATTERN...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMBING ABOVE 1370M...WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S EACH DAY...WITH LOWER 80S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT THIS FRONT
OR REMNANT TROUGH TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. A MORE VIGOROUS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
THE WAVE AND THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PREFER A
SOLUTION SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE
GFS WHICH DOESNT BRING THE FRONT IN UNTIL SATURDAY. NEITHER
SOLUTION LOOKS TO DRAW A TON OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...SO WILL
KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE NOW BASED ON THE PATTERN AND MODEL
DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM SUNDAY...
THE BIGGEST AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS FROM
THE NW... INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS GUSTING TO 25-35 KTS... STRONGEST
AFTER 17Z THIS AFTERNOON AS OUR LOW LEVELS MIX MORE DEEPLY. THIS MAY
POSE A CROSSWIND THREAT FOR AIRCRAFT AT GSO/RDU/FAY/RWI. CURRENT
CIGS ARE MOSTLY VFR... ALTHOUGH PATCHY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAY
BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS TO MVFR BRIEFLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... WITH
EARLY-DAY HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALOFT... EXPECT TO SEE A
PERIOD OF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS (2000-3000 FT AGL) MAINLY AT RDU/RWI
BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z THIS MORNING/MIDDAY. THESE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR SOON AFTER 17Z. ELSEWHERE... ANY CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE VFR...
AND VSBYS WILL BE VFR AREAWIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING (AFTER 01Z) TO 10-15 KTS WITH ONLY SPORADIC GUSTS TO 20
KTS FROM THE NW THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z MONDAY MORNING: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL SITES THROUGH THURSDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION AND REMAINS OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007-021>024-
038>040-073>077-083>086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
410 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LINGER JUST WEST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS TO 30% FOR COASTAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND 20% REST OF AREA. DRY SLOT WILL KEEP MOST OF
AREA DRY REST OF NIGHT BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT COASTAL PLAINS
WITH CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. TORNADO WATCH WAS CANCELLED AT
10 PM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 920 PM SATURDAY...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC (MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17) UNTIL
1 AM. HAVE BEEN WATCHING A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WITH
A DEEP AND PERSISTENT MESCALINE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC SINCE
730 PM. THIS STORM WILL REMAIN NW OF OUR AREA. TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING. THE HRRR MODEL BRINGS THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR PORTION
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND 11 PM SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SO
FAR STORMS HAVE NOT WEAKENED WITH LOSS OF HEATING A SIGNAL THAT
THEY ARE BEING DYNAMICALLY FORCED. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE AS THE COVERAGE IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
REMAINS SCATTERED. LATE TONIGHT DRY SLOTTING SHOULD END ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH. USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/MET MOS FOR LOWS WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WILL HAVE A BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...BUT AS UPPER LOW CROSSES TO
OUR NORTH NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY RECOVER ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES AND WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID
50S WITH GUSTY W/WNW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUN...UPR LOW WILL PIVOT EAST OF THE NC WATERS BY
MONDAY...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRES SFC AND
ALOFT BUILDS IN. ATMS COLUMN WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY PER SOUNDINGS
~0.25 INCH PWATS. THIS IS BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE MARCH.
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AS GRADIENT REMAINS
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH. A FAIRLY HIGH TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FA...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN
THE LOW 70S WEST...TO 50S ALONG THE OBX. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT MIXING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING TO THE SFC.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MIN RH VALS PLUMMET
TO THE 20-30 PERCENTILE RANGE BY MON AFTERNOON WITH A GUSTY NW WIND.
HIGH WILL BUILD IN MON NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY
NIGHTFALL WITH LOSS OF TURBULENT MIXING. WITH CLR SKIES...CALM
WINDS...AND DRY ATMS...WILL SEE LOWS DROP BACK TO THE UPR 30S/LOW
40S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. LARGE DIURNAL SWING ON TUE AS
THICKNESSES BUILD FURTHER AND DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DUE TO ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND TO 60S COAST.
LARGE DIURNAL SEESAW CONTINUES TUE NIGHT AS DECOUPLING OCCURS ONCE
AGAIN...AND WITH CONTINUED DRY ATMS TEMPS FALL BACK TO THE 40S.
THICKNESSES BUILD FURTHER ON WED AND ECM ENSMOS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOCAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS STUDY IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...60S
BEACHES. LOWS DROP BACK TO ~50 WED NIGHT AS SPRAWLING DRY HIGH PRES
REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS SE CONUS.
THUR AND FRI LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING OR PERHAPS EXCEEDING 80 AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES APPROACH
1390M. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPR 50S.
MODEL DIFFERENCES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND COME INTO PLAY...AS IS
EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT. THE ECM KEEPS THE SE CONUS RIDGE IN PLACE
WHILE PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND KEEPING BEST
DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH AS STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE DETERMINISTIC 30/00Z GFS INDICATES A STRONGER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT WITH MORE AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE TROFINESS ACROSS THE E CONUS. THIS SCENARIO HOWEVER
LACKS SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH INDICATES A LESS
AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE E CONUS. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INDICATED
SMALL POPS LATE FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ALL BUT KPGV
WHERE MVFR SCU STILL LINGERING. SCU VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVLOP
ALL SITES 09Z-12Z AS UPR LOW MOVES INTO AREA FROM W. LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING BY 15Z WITH SCT SHRA PSBL THROUGH AFTN AS
COLD CORE UPR LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLEARING EXPECTED
DURING EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. W WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20-25
KT TODAY...DIMINISING AND BECOME NW THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUN...EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG TERM AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
BUT THE REST OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR
EVENT RADIATION FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS COMING WEEK AS
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY. BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG AT NIGHT LATER IN
THE WEEK (THUR/FRI) AS DEWPOINT RISE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 920 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
OTHER THAN TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUNDS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GUSTY SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY. WILL INITIALIZE WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS
FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE OREGON INLET TO
OCRACOKE LEG WHERE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGEST. THESE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO MORE SW LATE.
PER LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL...SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FEET WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY 7 TO 10 FEET
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN THE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUN...MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY WITH SCA NW
WINDS...THOUGH THESE WINDS WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW
PRES MOVES AWAY FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS WILL STILL
REMAIN ELEVATED HOWEVER EVEN WHEN WINDS DROP BELOW 25 KT...AS
LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELL DOMINATES THE NRN/CENTRAL WATERS INTO
MON NIGHT. SEAS HERE WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT FINALLY...WITH HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN FOR TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL BE
ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THEREFORE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...OCNL REACHING 20 KT MID TO LATE
WEEK. THIS MAY BRING MARGINAL SCA TO ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
WATERS AS SEAS MAY REACH 6 FT HERE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ135-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL/LEP
MARINE...CTC/JME/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING... AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST PULLING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS AND
POTENTIALLY ADVERSE IMPACTS SUCH AS DOWNED BRANCHES AND WEAKLY
ROOTED TREES. CURRENTLY... SHORT BANDS OF SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALLY
ENHANCED WINDS CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER SW VA
THIS MORNING... MAINLY AFFECTING THE NRN CWA AS POCKETS OF VORTICITY
STREAK TO THE NNE ON THE SRN/ERN SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NC/VA STATE LINE THROUGH
MIDDAY... SHIFTING NE OFF THE TIDEWATER/DELMARVA SHORE DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... AND IT`S EXPECTED TO BRING PATCHY SHOWERS
(MOVING MORE WEST-TO-EAST) THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NRN
CWA... WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS SUPPORT A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE AT 850-700 MB.
THE COMPARATIVELY DRY AND WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER HOWEVER WILL
GREATLY LIMIT QPF. REGARDING TODAY`S WIND... THE MSLP GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DEEP SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/SRN
DELMARVA AND THE INCOMING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE WEST TIGHTENS UP
THIS MORNING... AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS HIGH-RES MODEL
OUTPUT SUCH AS THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF ALL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15-25 MPH MAINLY OVER THE WRN AND SRN HALVES OF THE CENTRAL NC
FORECAST AREA... AND TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM WITHIN THE GROWING MIXED
LAYER INDICATES GUSTS OF 30-36 KTS OVER THIS SAME AREA. WHILE THESE
SPEEDS MAY NOT QUITE REACH OUR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA EVERYWHERE...
THE ANTICIPATED IMPACTS (A FEW DOWNED BRANCHES/TREES AND SPORADIC
POWER OUTAGES) WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY... TO BE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TRIANGLE THROUGH MID EVENING
(WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE). BELOW-NORMAL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN TODAY... AND
EXPECT HIGHS OF 53-62... AROUND 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TO OUR NE AFTER
NIGHTFALL AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE (100-120 M MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES)
SHOULD FOSTER QUICK CLEARING FROM WSW TO ENE. WINDS WILL DECREASE
BUT SHOULD STILL HOLD UP ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOW LEVELS STIRRED
OVERNIGHT... KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING DOWN TO THE FORECAST DEW
POINTS (WHICH SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30). AS SUCH...
EXPECT LOWS TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. DESPITE LOWS IN THE MID
30S IN MANY AREAS... THE DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT... BUT WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS LATER TODAY. LOWS
MAINLY 35-40. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY... WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE COLUMN AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN
AT THE SURFACE... AND MID LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A
BREEZE OUT OF THE NW SHOULD PERSIST BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS WE
SHOULD SEE TODAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RECOVER NICELY TO NEAR-
NORMAL LEVELS MON MORNING AND RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY...
SUPPORTING HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S NE TO MID 70S SW... A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS MON NIGHT WILL
OFFSET THE CALM TO VERY LIGHT WINDS TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH. LOWS 38-42... JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY TUESDAY
WITH A SURFACE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WARM
PATTERN...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMBING ABOVE 1370M...WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S EACH DAY...WITH LOWER 80S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT THIS FRONT
OR REMNANT TROUGH TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. A MORE VIGOROUS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF
THE WAVE AND THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. PREFER A
SOLUTION SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE
GFS WHICH DOESNT BRING THE FRONT IN UNTIL SATURDAY. NEITHER
SOLUTION LOOKS TO DRAW A TON OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...SO WILL
KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE NOW BASED ON THE PATTERN AND MODEL
DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...
THE BIGGEST AVIATION STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESULTANT SHIFT IN SURFACE WINDS TO WESTERLY
THEN NORTHWEST... WITH AN INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS GUSTING TO 25-35
KTS... STRONGEST AFTER 17Z THIS AFTERNOON AS OUR LOW LEVELS MIX MORE
DEEPLY. THIS MAY POSE A CROSSWIND THREAT FOR AIRCRAFT AT
GSO/RDU/FAY/RWI. CURRENT CIGS ARE MOSTLY VFR... BUT PATCHY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS TO MVFR THROUGH 09Z.
OTHERWISE... WITH EARLY-DAY HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALOFT...
EXPECT TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY AT RDU/RWI BETWEEN 12Z
AND 17Z THIS MORNING/MIDDAY. THESE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR SOON
AFTER 17Z. ELSEWHERE... ANY CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE VFR... AND VSBYS
WILL BE VFR AREAWIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING (AFTER 01Z) TO 10-15 KTS WITH ONLY SPORADIC GUSTS TO 20 KTS
FROM THE NW THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THURSDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
AND REMAINS OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007-021>024-
038>040-073>077-083>086-088.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
214 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LINGER JUST WEST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS TO 30% FOR COASTAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND 20% REST OF AREA. DRY SLOT WILL KEEP MOST OF
AREA DRY REST OF NIGHT BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT COASTAL PLAINS
WITH CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. TORNADO WATCH WAS CANCELLED AT
10 PM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 920 PM SATURDAY...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC (MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17) UNTIL
1 AM. HAVE BEEN WATCHING A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WITH
A DEEP AND PERSISTENT MESCALINE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC SINCE
730 PM. THIS STORM WILL REMAIN NW OF OUR AREA. TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING. THE HRRR MODEL BRINGS THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR PORTION
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND 11 PM SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SO
FAR STORMS HAVE NOT WEAKENED WITH LOSS OF HEATING A SIGNAL THAT
THEY ARE BEING DYNAMICALLY FORCED. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE AS THE COVERAGE IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
REMAINS SCATTERED. LATE TONIGHT DRY SLOTTING SHOULD END ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH. USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/MET MOS FOR LOWS WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WILL HAVE A BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...BUT AS UPPER LOW CROSSES TO
OUR NORTH NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY RECOVER ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES AND WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID
50S WITH GUSTY W/WNW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CAN BE
SUMMARIZED AS DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE POPS ENDING THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE/UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CARRIED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRYING OUT
SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
TO THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY WILL DIMINISH AND
SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THIS WEEK WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ALL BUT KPGV
WHERE MVFR SCU STILL LINGERING. SCU VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVLOP
ALL SITES 09Z-12Z AS UPR LOW MOVES INTO AREA FROM W. LOWER MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING BY 15Z WITH SCT SHRA PSBL THROUGH AFTN AS
COLD CORE UPR LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLEARING EXPECTED
DURING EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. W WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20-25
KT TODAY...DIMINISING AND BECOME NW THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME VFR
ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE/UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 920 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
OTHER THAN TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUNDS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GUSTY SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY. WILL INITIALIZE WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS
FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE OREGON INLET TO
OCRACOKE LEG WHERE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGEST. THESE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO MORE SW LATE.
PER LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL...SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FEET WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY 7 TO 10 FEET
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN THE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...AN OVERALL IMPROVING TREND SEEN IN MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY
BUILDING IN AND LINGERING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...CTC/JME/HSA/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1240 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LINGER JUST WEST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS TO 30% FOR COASTAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND 20% REST OF AREA. DRY SLOT WILL KEEP MOST OF
AREA DRY REST OF NIGHT BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT COASTAL PLAINS
WITH CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. TORNADO WATCH WAS CANCELLED AT
10 PM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 920 PM SATURDAY...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC (MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17) UNTIL
1 AM. HAVE BEEN WATCHING A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WITH
A DEEP AND PERSISTENT MESCALINE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC SINCE
730 PM. THIS STORM WILL REMAIN NW OF OUR AREA. TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING. THE HRRR MODEL BRINGS THIS CONVECTION INTO OUR PORTION
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND 11 PM SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SO
FAR STORMS HAVE NOT WEAKENED WITH LOSS OF HEATING A SIGNAL THAT
THEY ARE BEING DYNAMICALLY FORCED. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE AS THE COVERAGE IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
REMAINS SCATTERED. LATE TONIGHT DRY SLOTTING SHOULD END ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES THROUGH. USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/MET MOS FOR LOWS WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WILL HAVE A BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...BUT AS UPPER LOW CROSSES TO
OUR NORTH NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY RECOVER ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES AND WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID
50S WITH GUSTY W/WNW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CAN BE
SUMMARIZED AS DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE POPS ENDING THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE/UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CARRIED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRYING OUT
SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
TO THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY WILL DIMINISH AND
SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THIS WEEK WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE STILL BEING
REPORTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT THINK THE TREND IS FOR IMPROVEMENT
AS THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS OVER AND SOME DRYING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS IN THE 12Z/18Z NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WILL FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS AROUND 09Z DURING THE PEAK OF DRYING. AN UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NC SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO A RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS 12-14Z WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD ALSO INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME VFR
ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE/UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 920 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
OTHER THAN TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUNDS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GUSTY SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY. WILL INITIALIZE WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS
FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE OREGON INLET TO
OCRACOKE LEG WHERE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGEST. THESE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO MORE SW LATE.
PER LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL...SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FEET WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY 7 TO 10 FEET
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN THE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...AN OVERALL IMPROVING TREND SEEN IN MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY
BUILDING IN AND LINGERING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA/LEP
MARINE...CTC/JME/HSA/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
950 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
UPDATED TO REMOVE ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING. AREA RADARS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
SNOW NOW RESIDES FROM FOSTER THROUGH STUTSMAN...LAMOURE AND DICKEY
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THOSE COUNTIES IN THE WARNING THROUGH 06Z.
EXCEPT FOR THE HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
UPDATED TO ALLOW THE NEXT PIECE OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO EXPIRE
ON TIME AT 00Z. THE REMAINING PART OF THE WARNING PRIMARILY COVERS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND REPORTS STILL SUGGEST BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THAT AREA. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...SO
WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS INVOLVED TRENDS AND IMPACTS OF ONGOING
BLIZZARD. INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN BISMARCK AND FARGO WAS JUST CLOSED
DUE TO NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WITH WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION VISIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SNOWFALL COINCIDENT WITH DEFORMATION
ZONE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST ND. SEVERAL LIGHTING STRIKES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AREA. MANY AREAS LIKELY SEEING 1
TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES UNDER THE HEAVIER EMBEDDED SNOW
BANDS. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED GRADUALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALLOWING SOME COUNTIES TO BE REMOVED FROM THE WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE LOW
CENTER...CURRENTLY OVER SW MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS PRECIP ENTIRELY OUT OF OUR
SOUTHEAST AREA BY 06Z.
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND CHILLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD BE IN
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO TONIGHT WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN
THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE ONGOING WINTER STORM. COUPLED WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD FOR EARLY APRIL...LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANYWHERE FROM ZERO TO THE MID TEENS ABOVE.
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MAINLY
SNOW SPREADING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS THUS FAR NOT IN AGREEMENT...HOWEVER A BLEND
OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BRINGS A SHOT OF 1-3 INCHES SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. MODELS HINT AT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT KJMS WITH LIFR CIGS AND VLIFR VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS FROM 02Z TO 06Z. THEREAFTER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TAKE
CONTROL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING VFR. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ025-037-048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...ACOOP/NH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
735 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
UPDATED TO ALLOW THE NEXT PIECE OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO EXPIRE
ON TIME AT 00Z. THE REMAINING PART OF THE WARNING PRIMARILY COVERS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND REPORTS STILL SUGGEST BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THAT AREA. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...SO
WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS INVOLVED TRENDS AND IMPACTS OF ONGOING
BLIZZARD. INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN BISMARCK AND FARGO WAS JUST CLOSED
DUE TO NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WITH WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION VISIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SNOWFALL COINCIDENT WITH DEFORMATION
ZONE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST ND. SEVERAL LIGHTING STRIKES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AREA. MANY AREAS LIKELY SEEING 1
TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES UNDER THE HEAVIER EMBEDDED SNOW
BANDS. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED GRADUALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALLOWING SOME COUNTIES TO BE REMOVED FROM THE WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE LOW
CENTER...CURRENTLY OVER SW MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS PRECIP ENTIRELY OUT OF OUR
SOUTHEAST AREA BY 06Z.
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND CHILLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD BE IN
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO TONIGHT WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN
THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE ONGOING WINTER STORM. COUPLED WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD FOR EARLY APRIL...LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANYWHERE FROM ZERO TO THE MID TEENS ABOVE.
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MAINLY
SNOW SPREADING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS THUS FAR NOT IN AGREEMENT...HOWEVER A BLEND
OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BRINGS A SHOT OF 1-3 INCHES SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. MODELS HINT AT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT KJMS WITH LIFR CIGS AND VLIFR VSBYS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS FROM 02Z TO 06Z. THEREAFTER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TAKE
CONTROL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING VFR. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-036-037-
047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...ACOOP/NH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
326 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE STORM SYSTEM FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WARNING PHASE. AS OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS HAD CLIMBED INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FA BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST. WINDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH SHIFTED TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION NOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN FA. ALSO
SEEING SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA WITH
SOME 40S IN SOUTHWEST MN. SEEING CLOUD COVER THICKENING A BIT
ACROSS THE AREA BUT STILL SOMEWHAT THIN ALLOWING SOME SUN THRU.
THIS IS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. THICKER CLOUDS AND MORE
SUBSTANTIAL ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND NOW.
MODELS SLOWLY BRING SOME OF THIS NORTHEAST INTO MAINLY THE KDVL
REGION LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD THIS EVENING
AND EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
FA. THEREFORE AS THIS BAND OF PCPN EXPANDS ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT PCPN TYPE COULD BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE. THEREFORE
THINKING SOME FORM OF MIXED PCPN MAY FALL LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA
WHERE TEMPS ARE A LITTLE MILDER. NOT THINKING THIS WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THOUGH...BUT WOULD DEFINITELY ADD TO THE
PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THINKING THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO GET HEAVIER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE KDVL REGION INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CRANK UP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FOR THIS
AREA SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THIS AREA
REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WATCH. AS THE SNOW BAND MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST MN EAST OF THE VALLEY WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS BIG OF A
PROBLEM. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS AREA. MAIN
QUESTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL AFFECT SNOW TOTALS AND EXACTLY WHEN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY GET UNDER WAY. THINK THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AREA TO KEEP THE BLIZZARD WATCH GOING THERE.
FOR THE FARGO MOORHEAD AREA CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY DETERIORATE
ON MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WENT WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THAT
AREA STARTING AT 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS THE TYPE OF SYSTEM THOUGH
THAT THERE COULD INITIALLY BE LARGE VARIATIONS IN CONDITIONS FROM
ONE PORTION OF A COUNTY TO ANOTHER. BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT
TO DO WITH EASTERN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH ADJACENT OFFICES WENT WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS THIS IS DEFINITELY A CHALLENGE.
REALLY THIS IS FORECASTING A RECORD TYPE EVENT SO HARD TO USE MUCH
PERSONAL EXPERIENCE. WENT WITH A BAND OF 20 OR SO INCHES FROM
COOPERSTOWN TO KGFK TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. MOST UNCERTAINTY
MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN. WITH MODELS
TRENDING NORTHWARD THE PAST FEW RUNS AND SLIGHT SHIFT COULD MAKE A
BIG DIFFERENCE. LEFT THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z TUE ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD STILL BE SOMETHING LEFT IN THE EASTERN FA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
LEFT THE TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED TIME FRAME DRY. TEMPS WILL DEPEND
ON SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE MON/TUE STORM.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...12Z MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONG SYSTEM
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK. THE
GEM AND ECMWF BRING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN FA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER TO THE SOUTH.
KEPT THE IDEA OF LOWER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA FOR THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
MVFR CIGS ARE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS SHIFTED WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
ANTICIPATE THAT THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY INVADE ALL TAF
SITES...BUT NOT SURE EXACTLY WHEN. FOLLOWED THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE
FOR TIMING. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING AS HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS BECOME
POSSIBLE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NDZ052-053.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-054.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ039-
049.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ029.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ015>017-022>024-027-028.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ030-040.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ001-
004-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ005-006-008-009-013-014.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ002-
003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ031-032.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
TEMPS HAVE JUMPED ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS IN A FEW SPOTS SO WILL
INCREASE MAX TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED
FOR THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
BOY...COMPLEX SYSTEM. MUCH CHAT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND WPC
SNOW DESK. CONSENSUS FROM NATIONAL FOLKS AFTER SEEING 00Z EURO WAS
TO GO WITH A GEM/EURO BLEND AND A FARTHER NORTHWEST TRACK OF HEAVY
SNOW AXIS. ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING NORTHWEST WITH HVY SNOW
AXIS PAST 24 HOUS AND 00Z RUNS OF GFS/NAM 06Z NAM THE SAME. ALSO A
BIT SLOWER. THIS CREATES ISSUES WITH CURRENT WATCH HEADLINES
ISSUED SATURDAY.
FOR TODAY...LIGHT RAIN NORTHEAST OF GRAND FORKS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT BY 12Z...COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NRN ND BY 12Z AND
MOVE SOUTH. COLDER AIR WITH IT NOT TOO DRASTIC UNTIL A BIT LATER
TODAY. SOUTHEASTERN ND WILL BE IN WARMER AIR AND WITH SOME SUN
TODAY COULD BOOST WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE NRN ND STAYS IN THE
MID 30S OR FALLS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS POWERFUL 500 MB SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED
EARLIER NR SAN FRANCISCO. SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH UPPER WAVE IN
WRN NEBRASKA/WYOMING 12Z MON. A STREAK OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL-NORTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT IN THE
FROM OF SNOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST
TO NEAR SIOUX FALLS 18Z MON AND 500 MB LOW DEEPENS AS WELL IN THE
CNTRL DAKOTAS...AND BY 00Z TUES SFC LOW NR WILMAR MN WITH UPPER
LOW NORTHEASTERN SD. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW A DEF ZONE BAND OF SNOW TO FORM RAPIDLY MONDAY MORNING
IN FAR NW MN INTO DVL REGION INTO SOUTHWESTERN ND AND THEN PIVOT
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE DAY. ALL MODELS KEEP FAR
SOUTHEASTERN FCST IN WARMER AIR ALOFT....WITH GEM/EURO WARMEST
KEEPING ANY PRECIP THERE IN FERGUS FALLS-WADENA-FAR S RICHLAND
COUNTY AS MOSTLY LIQUID THRU MON AFTN. HEAVY SNOW AXIS AT TIME
ROX-GFK-JMS. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE WITH EURO STILL THE WINDIEST
WITH 50-60 KTS WITH GFS 45KTS OR SO. REGARDLESS ENOUGH WIND AND
SNOW TO LIKELY CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THRU THE DAY
MONDAY IN NRN/CNTRL RRV SOUTHWESTWARD. STILL ENOUGH TIMING
DIFFERENCES AND HOW MUCH SNOWFALL AND EVENT STILL MOSTLY 12Z MONDAY
AND AFTERWARDS WILL STAY WITH WATCHES. BUT WITH PTYPE ISSUES AND
TIMING DID ADJUST START TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
SNOW BAND WILL SHIFT EAST SLOWLY THRU THE FCST AREA MONDAY ENDING
IN THE FAR EAST TUESDAY MORNING. WPC WWD AND PREFERENCE FOR A BIT
FARTHER NORTHWEST TRACK GIVES A WIDE 12-15 INCH BAND COOPERSTOWN-
VALLEY CITY THROUGH FARGO-GRAND FORKS TO BAUDETTE-ROSEAU-BEMIDJI.
A BIT LESS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS BAND. WITH SLOWER PROGRESSION
DID EXTEND WATCH ENDING TIME TO 12Z TUESDAY. QUIETER TUESDAY AS
HIGH MOVES IN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT BOTH SHOWING THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE CRASH
ONTO THE CENTRAL CA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE IT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER AT THIS TIME WITH A CLOSED 500 HPA LOW...WHEREAS THE GFS
MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE. AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF/S QPF IS MORE ROBUST
WITH ITS PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS KEEPS MOST PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN SD
INTO SOUTHERN MN. REMOVED ALL BLEND PRECIP WED/WED NIGHT WITH SFC
HIGH IN PLACE...BUT WILL EXTEND 20/30 POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THURS/THURS NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY...BUT REMAIN BELOW EARLY APRIL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
MVFR CIGS ARE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS SHIFTED WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
ANTICIPATE THAT THESE LOWER CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY INVADE ALL TAF
SITES...BUT NOT SURE EXACTLY WHEN. FOLLOWED THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE
FOR TIMING. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING AS HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS BECOME
POSSIBLE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NDZ039-049-052-053.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-054.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ002-003-029.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ022>024-027-028.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ030-040.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ001-004-007.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ031-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT...BUT NO OTHER BIG CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS CONTINUE
TO BE FAIRLY WARM WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING READINGS UP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MADE SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO POPS/WX. MOST OF THE RETURNS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA HAVE NOT YET BEEN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT ROLLA
JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA HAS STARTED REPORTING RAIN. CONTINUED TO KEEP
SOME 20-40 POPS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ADJUSTED THEM A BIT
SOUTH TO COUNT FOR RADAR TRENDS TO OUR WEST AS WELL AS THE HRRR
AND RAP RUNS. CONTINUE TO THINK THAT SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
UP AND TYPE AS RAIN FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER...BUT NO
MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE AND SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
FAIRLY QUIET THIS PERIOD AND MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT. VERY WARM
AIRMASS WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. AN UPPER WAVE SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...COLDER
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FA AS THE WINTER STORM TO
THE WEST ORGANIZES AND APPROACHES THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...THE LARGE WINTER STORM IS STILL ON TRACK
TO HIT THE REGION (MOSTLY ON MONDAY). THE 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SLOWER (AND NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL). THE
ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST/FURTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GFS IS
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL (BUT STILL WITHIN THE
FA). THE GEM/UKMET ARE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...AND AT THIS
POINT MAKE THE MOST SENSE. THE NAM (ALTHOUGH SIMILAR WITH QPF) IS
THE FAST OUTLIER AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE ECMWF IS ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE...AND WOULD EXPECT THIS
SOLUTION TO TREND SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE
NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. AT ANY RATE...THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE
FOR HEAVY SNOW SOMEWHERE...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS HEAVY SNOW AREA COULD AMOUNT TO A FOOT
OR MORE...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES APPEARING
LIKELY (THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SNOWFALL AREA WILL
BE CHALLENGING). THE SLOWER TREND OF THE MODELS HAS INCREASED THE
EXPECTED NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL SOLUTION
(EXCEPT THE FASTER NAM) YOU LOOK AT...ANTICIPATE SPEEDS AROUND 30
KNOTS GIVEN HIGH WIND INGREDIENTS AND MOS GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE FA...AND
WILL `UPGRADE` THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE
`MOST LIKELY` BLIZZARD AREA. DEFINITELY NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR
A WARNING AT THIS POINT FOR ANY AREA AS THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT P-TYPE...SNOW AMOUNTS...AND
WIND SPEEDS.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA ON
TUE NIGHT KEEPING THINGS COOL AND DRY. BY WED THE FLOW TURNS MORE
TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MODELS DIVERGING ON SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z GFS
IS QUICKER AND BRINGS IN LIGHT SNOW ON WED WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM
KEEP WED DRY. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT WITH THE
GFS MOVING THE LIGHT SNOW INTO THE NE FA AND THE ECMWF/GEM STILL
NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING. MORE POTENT SYSTEM LOOKING TO BE
THU/THU NIGHT ALTHOUGH STILL NOT MUCH AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FURTHEST NORTH SOLUTION WHICH WOULD
GIVE ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN FA. THE GFS IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE WAVE WHILE THE GEM IS IN BETWEEN. WILL
LEAVE LOW SNOW CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN FA FOR NOW AND
SEE IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT LATER. TEMPS GENERALLY
LOOK TO STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGHOUT BUT COULD BE GREATLY
AFFECTED BY SNOW COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
SOUTH WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE A BIT MORE GUSTY THAN EXPECTED
BUT THINK THAT WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS THE CENTER
OF THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE VFR WITH CLOUDS AROUND 10000 FT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE CIGS COMING DOWN...BUT KEPT
THE MVFR CONDITIONS OUT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. NORTH WINDS
WILL PICK UP MORE TO AROUND 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP. WILL ONLY GO WITH SOME -SN MENTION
AT KDVL FOR NOW AS THINK THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL
NOT SET UP UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR NDZ027>030-038-039-049-052-053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR NDZ008-016-024-026-054.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR MNZ001>003-029-030-040.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
452 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING STORM ON THE NJ COAST MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AND LEAD
TO FAIR AND MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
445PM UPDATE...
RAPID CHANGES TAKING PLACE AS THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND OF
PRECIP IS GENERATING JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR TO CREATE LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW. WEB CAMS AND REPORTS WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY
INTO THE EVENING AS CONDITIONS VARY WILDLY FROM NOTHING AT ALL
HAPPENING OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA...TO HEAVY SNOW AND
SLEET AND RAIN OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN 1/3 OR SO OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
THE SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN-SNOW-SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY
SLOWLY DRIFT OVER MY EASTERN ZONES. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE INTENSE
ENOUGH...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED. STILL THINKING
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THE
ROADS WILL BE SLIPPERY AND SLUSHY IN THE MORE PERSISTENT HEAVY
SNOW BANDS.
FROM EARLIER...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 19Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SUSQ MAINSTEM
/AND POINTS WEST TO INTERSTATE 81 ACROSS SCENT PENN/
THIS AREA OF PERSISTENT/HEAVY PRECIP IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A MODERATELY STRONG DEFORMATION BAND AND
MID-LEVEL FGEN FORCING /ENHANCED BY A WELL-DEFINED SPOKE OF
VORTICITY SPIRALING AROUND THE NWRN EDGE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/.
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE THE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCENT PENN HAVE PROMPTED US TO UPGRADE OUR
EARLIER FLOOD ADVISORY TO A FLOOD WARNING FOR ADAMS AND YORK
COUNTIES...WITH THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK AT CAMP HILL FORECAST TO
EXCEED FS TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER CAA WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY MIX...THEN CHANGE THE RAIN
OVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS EVEN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE A GRADUAL DECREASING
TREND IN THE LIGHTER SNOW OCCURS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS
OF THE STATE.
CANCELLED THE WINT WX ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SULLIVAN COUNTY...WHICH
STILL RUNS THROUGH 4 PM TODAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW
HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z RAP.
15Z/18Z RAP DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB SIMULATING THIS NEARLY
STATIONARY/SLOWLY WWD DRIFTING BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP SWIRLING
AROUND THE 546 DAM UPPER LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW A TREND OF
MAINTAINING THIS RATHER HIGH RAINFALL INTENSITY /AND RATE OF AT
LEAST .3 TO .6 OF AN INCH PER HOUR/ BEFORE CHANGING IT TO A FEW
TO SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF /WET/ SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING THE PRECIP RATES AND SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AREA
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION AND ECENT MTNS TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL QPF /LIKELY BETWEEN 0.5-1.0 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN AND
MELTED WET SNOW ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION/
WILL GRADUALLY TREND LOWER...THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY AS YOU HEAD NW
TWD THE I-99/RT 220 CORRIDOR.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAIN/WET SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUM
AT ELEVATIONS AOB 1400 FT MSL. MAINLY RAIN /MDT TO HVY AT TIMES/
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH BIG...SLOPPY WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN TO THE WEST
OF I-83.
TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SE
INVOF KLNS. SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCENT...AND ECENT PENN
/MAINLY AOA 1400 FT MSL/ COULD START TO SEE A GROUND COVERING OF
WET SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FEW ADDITIONAL
SPOKES OF VORTICITY AND N/S PRECIP BANDS ROTATE WWD AROUND THE
UPPER LOW.
2-DAY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AND MELTED SNOW BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
HAVE REACHED 4-5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SCENT PENN /ADAMS AND
YORK COUNTIES/...JUST WEST OF THE SUSQ RIVER...WHILE OTHER
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT EASTERN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA COME IN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES.
WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF IN THE WEST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST
AND SIGNIFICANT LIFT EXITS WITH IT.
THE OTHER INCREASINGLY NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE WEATHER WILL BE THE
GUSTY 30-40 MPH WIND THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE STRENGTHENING
LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST IN THE WAKE OF THIS CURRENT SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT OVER THE FAR
EAST...WITH MINOR ACCUMS OF A COATING TO ONE INCH /PERHAPS 2
INCHES ON THE RIDGES AOA 1600 FT MSL FROM SCHUYLKILL CTY...NORTH
TO SULLIVAN CTY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STORM FOR MONDAY.
RESIDUAL MSTR WILL PROBABLY HOLD CLOUDS IN THE WRN MTS AT
FIRST...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER VERY NICELY AS 8H TEMPS SHOOT BACK
INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND MAY HAVE A BIT OF A DELAY IN THE RECOVERY...BUT ALMOST-
APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD DO SOME GOOD MELTING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED SO PRECIPITATION IS LESS LIKELY. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SW
MTNS...HOWEVER THIS IS LESS LIKELY CONSIDERING ANY LINGERING HIGH
PRESSURE. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS SHOULD LIE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS COULD
ALLOW...FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS. A WEAK RIDGE COULD STIFLE
PRECIP EARLY THURSDAY. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL VARIATION ON POSITION AND
TIMING...BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NOSES INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MORE RAIN. INTO LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE RES OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS /WITH AREAS OF IFR/
IN RAIN WET SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDS MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN MTNS...JST
AND BFD.
AS THE DEEP SFC LOW REMAINS NEAR TO THE COAST...WINDS SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE PREVALENT AT ALL
AIRFIELDS INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS AOB 25KTS BETWEEN
18Z TODAY AND 04Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...LOW CIGS RAIN/SNOW ENDING ERN SXNS EARLY BCMG VFR. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WEST BCMG VFR.
TUE...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT EASTERN THIRD OF CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND OFF MID ATLC COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE NWWD BANDS OF MDT TO HEAVY RAIN OVER
SCENT AND EASTERN PENN TODAY.
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS...LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ECENT MTNS...AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
TO THE N/W OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES TO THE EAST AS WELL. THE
RAIN MAY NOT MOVE OUT ENTIRELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER. THUS...THE
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF RUNOFF. BUT
HAVE NOT MADE THIS MOVE QUITE YET. LOCALIZED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY OVER THE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE SMALL STREAMS AND SOME MAY BE RISING TO
BANKFULL BEFORE NOON. MANY OF THE LARGER WATERWAYS MAY GET TO
THEIR CAUTION STAGES...BUT THESE EFFECTS WOULD BE DELAYED FOR A
PERIOD OR TWO. THE MAINSTEM RIVER IS ALREADY PROGGED TO REACH
CAUTION STAGES AT MANY PLACES WITH CURRENT QPF IN THE HYDRO MODEL.
MMEFS PROBS FOR EXCEDENCE MAY BE UNDERDONE IN THE SREF
DATA...MAINLY DUE TO THE SHIFTING QPF AREAS/CENTERS AMONGST THE
MEMBERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ028-036-037-041-
042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ042-
051>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/COLBERT
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
426 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING STORM WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST FROM THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AND LEAD TO
FAIR AND MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330PM...A SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN-SNOW-SLEET CONTINUED TO
ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT OVER MY EASTERN ZONES. MADE SOME FAST CHANGES TO
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY TO EXTEND IT INTO
THE EVENING. I ALSO INCLUDED A SLUSHY INCH OR SNOW POSSIBLE OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS
OCCURRING UNDER THE BAND. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HEAVY
ENOUGH...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED. STILL
THINKING MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES...BUT THE ROADS COULD BECOME SLIPPERY AND SLUSHY IN THE
MORE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW BANDS.
FROM EARLIER...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 19Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SUSQ MAINSTEM
/AND POINTS WEST TO INTERSTATE 81 ACROSS SCENT PENN/
THIS AREA OF PERSISTENT/HEAVY PRECIP IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A MODERATELY STRONG DEFORMATION BAND AND
MID-LEVEL FGEN FORCING /ENHANCED BY A WELL-DEFINED SPOKE OF
VORTICITY SPIRALING AROUND THE NWRN EDGE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/.
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE THE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCENT PENN HAVE PROMPTED US TO UPGRADE OUR
EARLIER FLOOD ADVISORY TO A FLOOD WARNING FOR ADAMS AND YORK
COUNTIES...WITH THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK AT CAMP HILL FORECAST TO
EXCEED FS TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER CAA WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY MIX...THEN CHANGE THE RAIN
OVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS EVEN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE A GRADUAL DECREASING
TREND IN THE LIGHTER SNOW OCCURS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS
OF THE STATE.
CANCELLED THE WINT WX ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SULLIVAN COUNTY...WHICH
STILL RUNS THROUGH 4 PM TODAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW
HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z RAP.
15Z/18Z RAP DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB SIMULATING THIS NEARLY
STATIONARY/SLOWLY WWD DRIFTING BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP SWIRLING
AROUND THE 546 DAM UPPER LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW A TREND OF
MAINTAINING THIS RATHER HIGH RAINFALL INTENSITY /AND RATE OF AT
LEAST .3 TO .6 OF AN INCH PER HOUR/ BEFORE CHANGING IT TO A FEW
TO SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF /WET/ SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING THE PRECIP RATES AND SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AREA
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION AND ECENT MTNS TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL QPF /LIKELY BETWEEN 0.5-1.0 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN AND
MELTED WET SNOW ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION/
WILL GRADUALLY TREND LOWER...THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY AS YOU HEAD NW
TWD THE I-99/RT 220 CORRIDOR.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAIN/WET SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUM
AT ELEVATIONS AOB 1400 FT MSL. MAINLY RAIN /MDT TO HVY AT TIMES/
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH BIG...SLOPPY WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN TO THE WEST
OF I-83.
TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SE
INVOF KLNS. SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCENT...AND ECENT PENN
/MAINLY AOA 1400 FT MSL/ COULD START TO SEE A GROUND COVERING OF
WET SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FEW ADDITIONAL
SPOKES OF VORTICITY AND N/S PRECIP BANDS ROTATE WWD AROUND THE
UPPER LOW.
2-DAY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AND MELTED SNOW BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
HAVE REACHED 4-5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SCENT PENN /ADAMS AND
YORK COUNTIES/...JUST WEST OF THE SUSQ RIVER...WHILE OTHER
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT EASTERN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA COME IN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES.
WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF IN THE WEST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST
AND SIGNIFICANT LIFT EXITS WITH IT.
THE OTHER INCREASINGLY NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE WEATHER WILL BE THE
GUSTY 30-40 MPH WIND THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE STRENGTHENING
LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST IN THE WAKE OF THIS CURRENT SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT OVER THE FAR
EAST...WITH MINOR ACCUMS OF A COATING TO ONE INCH /PERHAPS 2
INCHES ON THE RIDGES AOA 1600 FT MSL FROM SCHUYLKILL CTY...NORTH
TO SULLIVAN CTY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STORM FOR MONDAY.
RESIDUAL MSTR WILL PROBABLY HOLD CLOUDS IN THE WRN MTS AT
FIRST...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER VERY NICELY AS 8H TEMPS SHOOT BACK
INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND MAY HAVE A BIT OF A DELAY IN THE RECOVERY...BUT ALMOST-
APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD DO SOME GOOD MELTING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED SO PRECIPITATION IS LESS LIKELY. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SW
MTNS...HOWEVER THIS IS LESS LIKELY CONSIDERING ANY LINGERING HIGH
PRESSURE. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS SHOULD LIE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS COULD
ALLOW...FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS. A WEAK RIDGE COULD STIFLE
PREICIP EARLY THURSDAY.
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS STILL VARIATION ON POSITION AND TIMING...BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT NOSES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING MORE RAIN.
INTO LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE RES OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS /WITH AREAS OF IFR/
IN RAIN WET SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDS MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN MTNS...JST
AND BFD.
AS THE DEEP SFC LOW REMAINS NEAR TO THE COAST...WINDS SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE PREVALENT AT ALL
AIRFIELDS INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS AOB 25KTS BETWEEN
18Z TODAY AND 04Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...LOW CIGS RAIN/SNOW ENDING ERN SXNS EARLY BCMG VFR. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WEST BCMG VFR.
TUE...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT EASTERN THIRD OF CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND OFF MID ATLC COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE NWWD BANDS OF MDT TO HEAVY RAIN OVER
SCENT AND EASTERN PENN TODAY.
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS...LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ECENT MTNS...AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
TO THE N/W OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES TO THE EAST AS WELL. THE
RAIN MAY NOT MOVE OUT ENTIRELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER. THUS...THE
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF RUNOFF. BUT
HAVE NOT MADE THIS MOVE QUITE YET. LOCALIZED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY OVER THE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE SMALL STREAMS AND SOME MAY BE RISING TO
BANKFULL BEFORE NOON. MANY OF THE LARGER WATERWAYS MAY GET TO
THEIR CAUTION STAGES...BUT THESE EFFECTS WOULD BE DELAYED FOR A
PERIOD OR TWO. THE MAINSTEM RIVER IS ALREADY PROGGED TO REACH
CAUTION STAGES AT MANY PLACES WITH CURRENT QPF IN THE HYDRO MODEL.
MMEFS PROBS FOR EXCEDENCE MAY BE UNDERDONE IN THE SREF
DATA...MAINLY DUE TO THE SHIFTING QPF AREAS/CENTERS AMONGST THE
MEMBERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ028-036-037-041-
042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/COLBERT
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
350 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING STORM WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST FROM THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AND LEAD TO
FAIR AND MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330PM...A SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN-SNOW-SLEET CONTINUED TO
ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT OVER MY EASTERN ZONES. MADE SOME FAST CHANGES TO
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY TO EXTEND IT INTO
THE EVENING. I ALSO INCLUDED A SLUSHY INCH OR SNOW POSSIBLE OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS
OCCURRING UNDER THE BAND. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HEAVY
ENOUGH...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED. STILL
THINKING MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES...BUT THE ROADS COULD BECOME SLIPPERY AND SLUSHY IN THE
MORE PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOW BANDS.
FROM EARLIER...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 19Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SUSQ MAINSTEM
/AND POINTS WEST TO INTERSTATE 81 ACROSS SCENT PENN/
THIS AREA OF PERSISTENT/HEAVY PRECIP IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A MODERATELY STRONG DEFORMATION BAND AND
MID-LEVEL FGEN FORCING /ENHANCED BY A WELL-DEFINED SPOKE OF
VORTICITY SPIRALING AROUND THE NWRN EDGE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/.
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE THE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCENT PENN HAVE PROMPTED US TO UPGRADE OUR
EARLIER FLOOD ADVISORY TO A FLOOD WARNING FOR ADAMS AND YORK
COUNTIES...WITH THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK AT CAMP HILL FORECAST TO
EXCEED FS TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER CAA WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY MIX...THEN CHANGE THE RAIN
OVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS EVEN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE A GRADUAL DECREASING
TREND IN THE LIGHTER SNOW OCCURS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS
OF THE STATE.
CANCELLED THE WINT WX ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SULLIVAN COUNTY...WHICH
STILL RUNS THROUGH 4 PM TODAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW
HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z RAP.
15Z/18Z RAP DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB SIMULATING THIS NEARLY
STATIONARY/SLOWLY WWD DRIFTING BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP SWIRLING
AROUND THE 546 DAM UPPER LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW A TREND OF
MAINTAINING THIS RATHER HIGH RAINFALL INTENSITY /AND RATE OF AT
LEAST .3 TO .6 OF AN INCH PER HOUR/ BEFORE CHANGING IT TO A FEW
TO SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF /WET/ SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING THE PRECIP RATES AND SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AREA
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION AND ECENT MTNS TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL QPF /LIKELY BETWEEN 0.5-1.0 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN AND
MELTED WET SNOW ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION/
WILL GRADUALLY TREND LOWER...THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY AS YOU HEAD NW
TWD THE I-99/RT 220 CORRIDOR.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAIN/WET SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUM
AT ELEVATIONS AOB 1400 FT MSL. MAINLY RAIN /MDT TO HVY AT TIMES/
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH BIG...SLOPPY WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN TO THE WEST
OF I-83.
TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SE
INVOF KLNS. SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCENT...AND ECENT PENN
/MAINLY AOA 1400 FT MSL/ COULD START TO SEE A GROUND COVERING OF
WET SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FEW ADDITIONAL
SPOKES OF VORTICITY AND N/S PRECIP BANDS ROTATE WWD AROUND THE
UPPER LOW.
2-DAY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AND MELTED SNOW BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
HAVE REACHED 4-5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SCENT PENN /ADAMS AND
YORK COUNTIES/...JUST WEST OF THE SUSQ RIVER...WHILE OTHER
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT EASTERN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA COME IN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES.
WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF IN THE WEST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST
AND SIGNIFICANT LIFT EXITS WITH IT.
THE OTHER INCREASINGLY NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE WEATHER WILL BE THE
GUSTY 30-40 MPH WIND THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE STRENGTHENING
LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST IN THE WAKE OF THIS CURRENT SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT OVER THE FAR
EAST...WITH MINOR ACCUMS OF A COATING TO ONE INCH /PERHAPS 2
INCHES ON THE RIDGES AOA 1600 FT MSL FROM SCHUYLKILL CTY...NORTH
TO SULLIVAN CTY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STORM FOR MONDAY.
RESIDUAL MSTR WILL PROBABLY HOLD CLOUDS IN THE WRN MTS AT
FIRST...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER VERY NICELY AS 8H TEMPS SHOOT BACK
INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND MAY HAVE A BIT OF A DELAY IN THE RECOVERY...BUT ALMOST-
APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD DO SOME GOOD MELTING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
THE INCOMING STORM. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR A
RAIN SNOW MIX ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH RAIN LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE LOW. THE EC/GFS HAS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT...MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE BEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE...FAIR SKIES...AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLES AS A WHOLE ARE TRENDING WARMER IN THE NEXT
WEEK. SO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE HORIZON. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER LATE TUESDAY
EVENING. SYSTEM WILL BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED SO PRECIPITATION IS
LESS LIKELY. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SW MTNS...HOWEVER THIS IS LESS LIKELY
CONSIDERING THE RIDGE THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS WEEKENDS STORM. THERE IS STILL VARIATION ON
POSITION AND TIMING...BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NOSES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING MORE RAIN. DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THE LOW...PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE RES OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS /WITH AREAS OF IFR/
IN RAIN WET SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDS MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN MTNS...JST
AND BFD.
AS THE DEEP SFC LOW REMAINS NEAR TO THE COAST...WINDS SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE PREVALENT AT ALL
AIRFIELDS INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS AOB 25KTS BETWEEN
18Z TODAY AND 04Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...LOW CIGS RAIN/SNOW ENDING ERN SXNS EARLY BCMG VFR. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WEST BCMG VFR.
TUE...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT EASTERN THIRD OF CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND OFF MID ATLC COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE NWWD BANDS OF MDT TO HEAVY RAIN OVER
SCENT AND EASTERN PENN TODAY.
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS...LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ECENT MTNS...AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
TO THE N/W OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES TO THE EAST AS WELL. THE
RAIN MAY NOT MOVE OUT ENTIRELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER. THUS...THE
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF RUNOFF. BUT
HAVE NOT MADE THIS MOVE QUITE YET. LOCALIZED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY OVER THE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE SMALL STREAMS AND SOME MAY BE RISING TO
BANKFULL BEFORE NOON. MANY OF THE LARGER WATERWAYS MAY GET TO
THEIR CAUTION STAGES...BUT THESE EFFECTS WOULD BE DELAYED FOR A
PERIOD OR TWO. THE MAINSTEM RIVER IS ALREADY PROGGED TO REACH
CAUTION STAGES AT MANY PLACES WITH CURRENT QPF IN THE HYDRO MODEL.
MMEFS PROBS FOR EXCEDENCE MAY BE UNDERDONE IN THE SREF
DATA...MAINLY DUE TO THE SHIFTING QPF AREAS/CENTERS AMONGST THE
MEMBERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ028-036-037-041-
042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/COLBERT
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
311 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING STORM WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST FROM THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AND LEAD TO
FAIR AND MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 19Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SUSQ MAINSTEM
/AND POINTS WEST TO INTERSTATE 81 ACROSS SCENT PENN/
THIS AREA OF PERSISTENT/HEAVY PRECIP IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A MODERATELY STRONG DEFORMATION BAND AND
MID-LEVEL FGEN FORCING /ENHANCED BY A WELL-DEFINED SPOKE OF
VORTICITY SPIRALING AROUND THE NWRN EDGE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/.
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE THE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCENT PENN HAVE PROMPTED US TO UPGRADE OUR
EARLIER FLOOD ADVISORY TO A FLOOD WARNING FOR ADAMS AND YORK
COUNTIES...WITH THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK AT CAMP HILL FORECAST TO
EXCEED FS TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER CAA WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY MIX...THEN CHANGE THE RAIN
OVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS EVEN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE A GRADUAL DECREASING
TREND IN THE LIGHTER SNOW OCCURS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS
OF THE STATE.
CANCELLED THE WINT WX ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SULLIVAN COUNTY...WHICH
STILL RUNS THROUGH 4 PM TODAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW
HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z RAP.
15Z/18Z RAP DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB SIMULATING THIS NEARLY
STATIONARY/SLOWLY WWD DRIFTING BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP SWIRLING
AROUND THE 546 DAM UPPER LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW A TREND OF
MAINTAINING THIS RATHER HIGH RAINFALL INTENSITY /AND RATE OF AT
LEAST .3 TO .6 OF AN INCH PER HOUR/ BEFORE CHANGING IT TO A FEW
TO SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF /WET/ SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING THE PRECIP RATES AND SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AREA
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION AND ECENT MTNS TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL QPF /LIKELY BETWEEN 0.5-1.0 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN AND
MELTED WET SNOW ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION/
WILL GRADUALLY TREND LOWER...THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY AS YOU HEAD NW
TWD THE I-99/RT 220 CORRIDOR.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAIN/WET SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUM
AT ELEVATIONS AOB 1400 FT MSL. MAINLY RAIN /MDT TO HVY AT TIMES/
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH BIG...SLOPPY WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN TO THE WEST
OF I-83.
TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SE
INVOF KLNS. SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCENT...AND ECENT PENN
/MAINLY AOA 1400 FT MSL/ COULD START TO SEE A GROUND COVERING OF
WET SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FEW ADDITIONAL
SPOKES OF VORTICITY AND N/S PRECIP BANDS ROTATE WWD AROUND THE
UPPER LOW.
2-DAY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AND MELTED SNOW BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
HAVE REACHED 4-5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SCENT PENN /ADAMS AND
YORK COUNTIES/...JUST WEST OF THE SUSQ RIVER...WHILE OTHER
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT EASTERN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA COME IN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES.
WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF IN THE WEST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST
AND SIGNIFICANT LIFT EXITS WITH IT.
THE OTHER INCREASINGLY NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE WEATHER WILL BE THE
GUSTY 30-40 MPH WIND THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE STRENGTHENING
LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST IN THE WAKE OF THIS CURRENT SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT OVER THE FAR
EAST...WITH MINOR ACCUMS OF A COATING TO ONE INCH /PERHAPS 2
INCHES ON THE RIDGES AOA 1600 FT MSL FROM SCHUYLKILL CTY...NORTH
TO SULLIVAN CTY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STORM FOR MONDAY.
RESIDUAL MSTR WILL PROBABLY HOLD CLOUDS IN THE WRN MTS AT
FIRST...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER VERY NICELY AS 8H TEMPS SHOOT BACK
INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND MAY HAVE A BIT OF A DELAY IN THE RECOVERY...BUT ALMOST-
APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD DO SOME GOOD MELTING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
THE INCOMING STORM. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR A
RAIN SNOW MIX ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH RAIN LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE LOW. THE EC/GFS HAS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT...MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE BEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE...FAIR SKIES...AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLES AS A WHOLE ARE TRENDING WARMER IN THE NEXT
WEEK. SO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE HORIZON. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER LATE TUESDAY
EVENING. SYSTEM WILL BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED SO PRECIPITATION IS
LESS LIKELY. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SW MTNS...HOWEVER THIS IS LESS LIKELY
CONSIDERING THE RIDGE THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS WEEKENDS STORM. THERE IS STILL VARIATION ON
POSITION AND TIMING...BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NOSES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING MORE RAIN. DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THE LOW...PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE RES OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...KEEPING WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VISBYS /WITH AREAS OF IFR/
IN RAIN WET SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDS MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN MTNS...JST
AND BFD.
AS THE DEEP SFC LOW REMAINS NEAR TO THE COAST...WINDS SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE PREVALENT AT ALL
AIRFIELDS INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS AOB 25KTS BETWEEN
18Z TODAY AND 04Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...LOW CIGS RAIN/SNOW ENDING ERN SXNS EARLY BCMG VFR. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WEST BCMG VFR.
TUE...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
WED-THU...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT EASTERN THIRD OF CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE TRACK
SLOWUY TO THE EAST AND OFF MID ATLC COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE NWWD BANDS OF MDT TO HEAVY RAIN OVER
SCENT AND EASTERN PENN TODAY.
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS...LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ECENT MTNS...AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
TO THE N/W OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES TO THE EAST AS WELL. THE
RAIN MAY NOT MOVE OUT ENTIRELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER. THUS...THE
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF RUNOFF. BUT
HAVE NOT MADE THIS MOVE QUITE YET. LOCALIZED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY OVER THE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE SMALL STREAMS AND SOME MAY BE RISING TO
BANKFULL BEFORE NOON. MANY OF THE LARGER WATERWAYS MAY GET TO
THEIR CAUTION STAGES...BUT THESE EFFECTS WOULD BE DELAYED FOR A
PERIOD OR TWO. THE MAINSTEM RIVER IS ALREADY PROGGED TO REACH
CAUTION STAGES AT MANY PLACES WITH CURRENT QPF IN THE HYDRO MODEL.
MMEFS PROBS FOR EXCEEDENCE MAY BE UNDERDONE IN THE SREF
DATA...MAINLY DUE TO THE SHIFTING QPF AREAS/CENTERS AMONGST THE
MEMBERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ028-036-037-041-
042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/COLBERT
AVIATION...LAMBERT
HYDROLOGY...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1009 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH. LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS
WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL UPDATE
TO RAISE POPS...OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014/
SOME CLOUDY SKIES ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION FIELD TO
DECREASE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE LOW PUSHES WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-SOUTH. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT IS IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND BOOT HEEL MISSOURI. HAVE LOWERED POPS JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE FOR TONIGHT.
A WEAK HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE MID-SOUTH DRY FOR
TUESDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND WE
CONTINUE TO STAY WARM...HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH EXACT POSITIONS...HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN THE MID-SOUTH. MOST THINGS FAVOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER...LOTS OF MOISTURE--ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
COMPARED CLIMATOLOGY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A GOOD
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
LOTS OF INSTABILITY. THE ONE NEGATIVE IS THE LACK OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVENTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND ON FRIDAY.
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY. TLSJR
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH AND -RA
EXPECTED AT JBR THROUGH 02Z...KMEM THROUGH 02Z AND KMKL THROUGH
04Z. WINDS MODERATE AND FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KMEM... KMKL AND
KJBR BEFORE SLACKING BY EARLY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT
KTUP. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BEFORE STALLING AND RETREATING BACK NORTH TOMORROW. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
JPM3
&&
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
112 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS DRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WILL BE DROPPING THE GOING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AS SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED TO ONE SMALLER BAND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE THAT SHOULD FADE SHORTLY. TEMPS HAVE ALSO WARMED ENOUGH
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO LIMIT ANY ADDED ACCUMULATION
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO LOWER POPS AND ADJUST TEMPS.
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...
PERSISTENT BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE TO SPILL SOUTH FROM BATH
COUNTY EAST TO AMHERST WITH ELEVATION ALLOWING SNOW TO QUICKLY
ACCUMULATE TO BETTER THAN 6 INCHES IN STRIPS ALONG THE I-64 TO
I-81 CORRIDOR UP NORTH. LATEST RAP AND LOCAL MODEL SOLNS SUGGEST
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS BEFORE
THE DEFORMATION AREA FINALLY SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS. THUS WILL
KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY WHILE INCLUDING LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS GIVEN THE HUGE RANGE
ACROSS COUNTIES WITH LITTLE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN FARTHER SOUTH WITH ONLY SOME SNOW
MIXED IN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 FOR A WHILE LONGER. PRECIP HAS
TAPERED WEST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY SO WILL BE REMOVING COUNTIES
FROM THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THERE WHILE KEEPING THE WARNINGS
GOING INTO SE WVA GIVEN SOME CONTININUING LIGHT SNOWFALL. LITTLE
CHANGE TO GOING WIND HEADLINES WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS
CONTINUING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE BUT LIKELY TO SHIFT NE AS
SOME BREAKS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET
MAX THAT LOOKS TO PIVOT ACROSS BY MID AFTERNOON. BEEFED UP CLOUDS
LONGER PER LATEST VIS PICS WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW MOS SO
LOWERED A CAT OR SO ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AS OF 915 AM EDT SUNDAY...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROCKBRIDGE AND
AMHERST TO THE GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE. EXPECT MOST
ACCUMULATION TO BE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY WITH LESS THAN AN
INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THAT REGION. ALSO BUMPED UP AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN BATH WHERE HAVE ALREADY SEEN 2-3 INCHES. REMAINDER
UNCHANGED AS EXPECT LESS AND LESS ACCUMULATION WITH SOME SLOW
WARMING DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE MAY BE REALIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WILL NEED SOME
CLEARING TO ENHANCE MIXING WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN IN TIME BUT WILL
CONTINUE THE WARNING FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW DEFORMATION AXIS PIEDMONT WITH NW FLOW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST. RADAR OVERSHOOTING THE SNOW
PAST I-77 AND IN NC MTNS. MODELS AGREE THAT DRYING TAKES PLACE
FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN OUT EAST START TO WANE LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD 2-6 INCHES POSSIBLE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND SOME POCKETS OF 1-3 INCHES IN NARROW CORRIDORS
FROM SE WV INTO THE NW NC MTNS AND NEW RIVER VALLEY.
WIND WILL KEEP THE SNOW MEASURING AN ISSUE...AND OVERALL WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BUT STRONGEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE AS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE AND STILL LOOKING AFTERNOON FOR MOST. ALREADY HAVE HAD GUSTS
OVER 65 MPH AT BOONE...AND A TREE DOWN IN TODD NC.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HEADLINES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING...
OVERALL...MARCH IS TRYING TO GO OUT LIKE A LION...BUT IT WILL HAVE
TO SETTLE FOR THE DAY BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH.
RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS THE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP LIFTING NWD
ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA. THE
PRECIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS CHANGED TO ALL SNOW...BUT SO FAR
LITTLE ACCUMULATION REPORTS...ALTHOUGH THINK MORE WILL BE COMING IN
AS WE HEAD TOWARD DAYLIGHT HOURS. NICE CYCLONIC FLOW SEEN IN THE
RADAR ECHOES AS WELL...WITH UPSLOPE WELL UNDER WAY OVER THE NC
MTNS...NWD INTO SE WV.
HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES...BUT THE
WINDS WILL BE HIT AND MISS THIS MORNING THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER.
AS WE HEAD THRU THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WITH STRONG NVA ARRIVING WHICH HELPS TO MIX OUT THE CLOUDS.
FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST STRONG
WINDS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL NOT REALLY GET TO
ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS BUT GIVEN WET GROUNDS...WIND SPEEDS JUST
BELOW WILL CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. WHERE THE WARNING IS IN
PLACE...THINK 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS ARE LIKELY AND FEEL THAT TREES ARE
GOING TO BE BLOWN DOWN. HOPEFULLY...NO DAMAGE TO HOMES OR BUSINESSES
WILL OCCUR. ADVISORY AREAS WILL BE MORE FORTUNATE BUT EXPECT SOME
TREE DOWN REPORTS AS WELL.
THE SNOW WILL ALSO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
AWAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT WILL GET AS MUCH AS
6 INCHES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...ESPECIALLY WRN GREENBRIER.
MOIST/WET GROUND WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON STICKING...BUT RATE SHOULD
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO GIVE THE HIGHER VALLEYS IN THE WEST A 1-2 INCH
COATING. THOUGH NO ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR SNOW ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...THINK LOCATIONS SUCH AS POOR MOUNTAIN...PEAKS OF OTTER AND
APPLE ORCHARD MOUNTAIN COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS
MORNING...THEN NEUTRAL ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS LATE MARCH
SUN AND DOWNSLOPE. WENT WITH MID 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TO 40S
WEST...WITH 30S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FROM BEECH MTN NC...MOUNT
ROGERS VA AND THE WRN SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT SUNDAY...
THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL
BECOME AN OCCLUDED LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
PIEDMONT BY SUNSET. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OVER
THE OHIO-TENN VALLEYS TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDY/GUSTY CONDITIONS INTO THE
EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO LOOSEN AFTER MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. OVERNIGHT MIXING
WILL KEEP RIDGE TOP TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN THE VALLEYS. MOUNTAIN
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE M/U20S WHILE RIDGES RANGE
BETWEEN 30F-35F. EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS RELAX IN THE EAST EARLY...NOT
AN IDEAL SITUATION FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...THEREFORE KEPT
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES WITH MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S ACROSS THE WEST AND U60S-L70S IN THE EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS PEAK
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH. WARMER TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 70F
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND WIDESPREAD 70S EAST. HUMIDITY LEVELS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AROUND 30 PERCENT TUESDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BOTH DAYS LOOK IDEAL FOR PRESCRIBE BURNS
WITH THE STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS OCCURRING TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT SATURDAY...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST AND MEAN
TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW STATES. WILL SEE A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH AND HEIGHTS DIP A BIT. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY INITIALLY DRY
WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW WHICH SHOULD DO LITTLE TO
DETER VERY WARM TEMPS FOR MIDWEEK. FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS TOWARD
THE UPPER MIDWEST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT MAY TEND TO SPILL
DOWN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE WEST SO BUMPED UP POPS STARTING
THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH MOISTURE
AROUND AND WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING BY. STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH THE
WAVE TO THE WEST WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY PER THE FASTER EC. EXPECT PRE-
FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE SOUTH AND SW SO RUNNING
WITH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO GET FAR ENOUGH SE TO ALLOW DRYING ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME
EARLY CLOUDS/-SHRA MAINLY NW AND CLEARING ELSW PENDING LATER RUNS.
GOOD SOUTH TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY BRING TEMPS UP TO SPRING LEVELS
AND ALLOW THEM TO STAY THERE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 70S EXCEPT COOLING TO
60S SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND PERHAPS
STAYING ABOVE 50 OUT EAST DURING MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT SUNDAY...
LAST OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW/RAIN BANDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME DRY
SLOTTING TO TAKE PLACE FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. HOWEVER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND
BCB/ROA AND 30-35 KTS IN THE EAST AS WELL AS ACROSS SE WVA. OTRW
IMPROVING CIGS SHOULD TAKE SHAPE WITH BLF REBOUNDING FROM LIFR/IFR
TO MVFR THEN VFR AFTER 00Z/8PM AND MVFR TO VFR AT LWB. BCB MAY
SEEN A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF MVFR AS WELL BEFORE ALL IMPROVE TO VFR
UNDER CLEARING SKIES BY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS FINALLY
SUBSIDING BUT STILL SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THE GRADIENT MAY DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW VERY LIGHT
WINDS AT LYH/DAN/LWB BEFORE INCREASING SOME MONDAY MORNING UNDER
LIGHT MIXING. SHOULD BE GOOD FLYING WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND SURFACE NW WINDS AT 5-15 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL LATE WEEK WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY PERHAPS RESULTING IN
MVFR CIGS AND A FEW SHOWERS. A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST BY FRIDAY SHOULD SPELL MORE WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF MVFR IN
SHOWERS HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009-
012>020-022-032-033.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-010-011-
023-024-034-035-043>047-058-059.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>003-
018-019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ004>006-020.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/MBS/RAB/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1053 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS DRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...
PERSISTENT BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE TO SPILL SOUTH FROM BATH
COUNTY EAST TO AMHERST WITH ELEVATION ALLOWING SNOW TO QUICKLY
ACCUMULATE TO BETTER THAN 6 INCHES IN STRIPS ALONG THE I-64 TO
I-81 CORRIDOR UP NORTH. LATEST RAP AND LOCAL MODEL SOLNS SUGGEST
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS BEFORE
THE DEFORMATION AREA FINALLY SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS. THUS WILL
KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY WHILE INCLUDING LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS GIVEN THE HUGE RANGE
ACROSS COUNTIES WITH LITTLE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE SHOULD
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN FARTHER SOUTH WITH ONLY SOME SNOW
MIXED IN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 FOR A WHILE LONGER. PRECIP HAS
TAPERED WEST OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY SO WILL BE REMOVING COUNTIES
FROM THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THERE WHILE KEEPING THE WARNINGS
GOING INTO SE WVA GIVEN SOME CONTININUING LIGHT SNOWFALL. LITTLE
CHANGE TO GOING WIND HEADLINES WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS
CONTINUING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE BUT LIKELY TO SHIFT NE AS
SOME BREAKS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET
MAX THAT LOOKS TO PIVOT ACROSS BY MID AFTERNOON. BEEFED UP CLOUDS
LONGER PER LATEST VIS PICS WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW MOS SO
LOWERED A CAT OR SO ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AS OF 915 AM EDT SUNDAY...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ROCKBRIDGE AND
AMHERST TO THE GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE. EXPECT MOST
ACCUMULATION TO BE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY WITH LESS THAN AN
INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THAT REGION. ALSO BUMPED UP AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN BATH WHERE HAVE ALREADY SEEN 2-3 INCHES. REMAINDER
UNCHANGED AS EXPECT LESS AND LESS ACCUMULATION WITH SOME SLOW
WARMING DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE MAY BE REALIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WILL NEED SOME
CLEARING TO ENHANCE MIXING WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN IN TIME BUT WILL
CONTINUE THE WARNING FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW DEFORMATION AXIS PIEDMONT WITH NW FLOW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST. RADAR OVERSHOOTING THE SNOW
PAST I-77 AND IN NC MTNS. MODELS AGREE THAT DRYING TAKES PLACE
FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN OUT EAST START TO WANE LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD 2-6 INCHES POSSIBLE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND SOME POCKETS OF 1-3 INCHES IN NARROW CORRIDORS
FROM SE WV INTO THE NW NC MTNS AND NEW RIVER VALLEY.
WIND WILL KEEP THE SNOW MEASURING AN ISSUE...AND OVERALL WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BUT STRONGEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE AS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE AND STILL LOOKING AFTERNOON FOR MOST. ALREADY HAVE HAD GUSTS
OVER 65 MPH AT BOONE...AND A TREE DOWN IN TODD NC.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HEADLINES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING...
OVERALL...MARCH IS TRYING TO GO OUT LIKE A LION...BUT IT WILL HAVE
TO SETTLE FOR THE DAY BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH.
RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS THE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP LIFTING NWD
ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA. THE
PRECIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS CHANGED TO ALL SNOW...BUT SO FAR
LITTLE ACCUMULATION REPORTS...ALTHOUGH THINK MORE WILL BE COMING IN
AS WE HEAD TOWARD DAYLIGHT HOURS. NICE CYCLONIC FLOW SEEN IN THE
RADAR ECHOES AS WELL...WITH UPSLOPE WELL UNDER WAY OVER THE NC
MTNS...NWD INTO SE WV.
HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES...BUT THE
WINDS WILL BE HIT AND MISS THIS MORNING THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER.
AS WE HEAD THRU THE DAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WITH STRONG NVA ARRIVING WHICH HELPS TO MIX OUT THE CLOUDS.
FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST STRONG
WINDS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL NOT REALLY GET TO
ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS BUT GIVEN WET GROUNDS...WIND SPEEDS JUST
BELOW WILL CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. WHERE THE WARNING IS IN
PLACE...THINK 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS ARE LIKELY AND FEEL THAT TREES ARE
GOING TO BE BLOWN DOWN. HOPEFULLY...NO DAMAGE TO HOMES OR BUSINESSES
WILL OCCUR. ADVISORY AREAS WILL BE MORE FORTUNATE BUT EXPECT SOME
TREE DOWN REPORTS AS WELL.
THE SNOW WILL ALSO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
AWAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT WILL GET AS MUCH AS
6 INCHES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...ESPECIALLY WRN GREENBRIER.
MOIST/WET GROUND WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON STICKING...BUT RATE SHOULD
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO GIVE THE HIGHER VALLEYS IN THE WEST A 1-2 INCH
COATING. THOUGH NO ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR SNOW ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...THINK LOCATIONS SUCH AS POOR MOUNTAIN...PEAKS OF OTTER AND
APPLE ORCHARD MOUNTAIN COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS
MORNING...THEN NEUTRAL ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS LATE MARCH
SUN AND DOWNSLOPE. WENT WITH MID 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TO 40S
WEST...WITH 30S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FROM BEECH MTN NC...MOUNT
ROGERS VA AND THE WRN SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT SUNDAY...
THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL
BECOME AN OCCLUDED LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
PIEDMONT BY SUNSET. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OVER
THE OHIO-TENN VALLEYS TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDY/GUSTY CONDITIONS INTO THE
EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO LOOSEN AFTER MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. OVERNIGHT MIXING
WILL KEEP RIDGE TOP TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN THE VALLEYS. MOUNTAIN
VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE M/U20S WHILE RIDGES RANGE
BETWEEN 30F-35F. EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS RELAX IN THE EAST EARLY...NOT
AN IDEAL SITUATION FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...THEREFORE KEPT
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES WITH MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S ACROSS THE WEST AND U60S-L70S IN THE EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS PEAK
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH. WARMER TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 70F
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND WIDESPREAD 70S EAST. HUMIDITY LEVELS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AROUND 30 PERCENT TUESDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BOTH DAYS LOOK IDEAL FOR PRESCRIBE BURNS
WITH THE STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS OCCURRING TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT SATURDAY...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST AND MEAN
TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW STATES. WILL SEE A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH AND HEIGHTS DIP A BIT. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY INITIALLY DRY
WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW WHICH SHOULD DO LITTLE TO
DETER VERY WARM TEMPS FOR MIDWEEK. FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS TOWARD
THE UPPER MIDWEST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT MAY TEND TO SPILL
DOWN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE WEST SO BUMPED UP POPS STARTING
THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH MOISTURE
AROUND AND WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING BY. STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH THE
WAVE TO THE WEST WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY PER THE FASTER EC. EXPECT PRE-
FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE SOUTH AND SW SO RUNNING
WITH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO GET FAR ENOUGH SE TO ALLOW DRYING ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME
EARLY CLOUDS/-SHRA MAINLY NW AND CLEARING ELSW PENDING LATER RUNS.
GOOD SOUTH TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY BRING TEMPS UP TO SPRING LEVELS
AND ALLOW THEM TO STAY THERE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 70S EXCEPT COOLING TO
60S SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND PERHAPS
STAYING ABOVE 50 OUT EAST DURING MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SUNDAY...
DEALING WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTENSITY LOOKS LIKE SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY VSBY ISSUES. IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE
SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...VSBYS COULD DROP TO AROUND 1-2SM AT BLF/BCB
AND PERHAPS LWB.
WE WILL SEE THE AREA START TO DRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOSED LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE GOING TO BE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BOONE NC FOR INSTANCE. BCB/ROA ARE IN THE
BEST CORRIDOR AS FAR AS TAFS GO FOR WINDS CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS...WITH
LESS IN THE WV MTNS AND LYH/DAN.
WINDS WIL BE WEAKENING AFTER 00Z...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT UNTIL THU OR FRI...WHEN A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST/NORTH AND
BRING INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR CIGS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN WV.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009-
012>020-022-032-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ018>020-024-035.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-010-011-
023-024-034-035-043>047-058-059.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>003-
018-019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ004>006-020.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ042>045.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>045.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ042-
043-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/RAB/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1039 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT LLJ
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER FAR NE WI THIS EVG. RECEIVED A REPORT OF
HALF INCH HAIL IN KEWAUNEE COUNTY EARLIER. HAVE ONLY KEPT THUNDER
IN THE FCST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS
FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WAS JUST GETTING TO THE FAR SW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT NOT SURE IF IT WILL SURVIVE AS IT MOVES
FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT. KEPT THE MENTION OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR
SNOW ACROSS NC WI TOWARD MORNING.
MADE SOME CHANGES TO LOWER TEMPS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS
UPSTREAM SFC OBS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE QUITE CHILLY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA.
RELATIVELY CLEAN LOOKING DRY SLOT IS PUSHING AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE
INTO SW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
DRY SLOT...SCT TO BKN ARCING LINE SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE DUE
TO PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 10 KFT. SOME SHOWERS LOOK TO BE REACHING
THE GROUND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH. LOOKING FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI VALLEY BUT SKIES ARE CLEAR ALONG IT THANKS TO THE DEEP DRY
SLOT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND SNOW EXIST
WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD. PLENTY OF FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH
TOMORROW...INCLUDING POTENTIAL AND TIMING OF PRECIP...AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TOMORROW.
TONIGHT...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...700MB FRONT/EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WILL WORK NE AND PUSH A BKN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LINE WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY TAME THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SUGGEST
INTENSIFICATION OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FGEN. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS
SCENARIO...SINCE THIS LINE OF SHOWERS HAS STRUGGLED DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF AMPLE DRY AIR...AS DEPICTED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS. WILL
TREND POPS UPWARD OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING...BUT
REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH QPF THAN THE MODELS. THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE DOOR PENINSULA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A RELATIVELY CLEAN DRY SLOT WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH
THIS FRONT SO PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN SMALL. BUT THE MESOMODELS
AND NAM CREATE ELEVATED CAPE UP TO ABOUT 100 J/KG ALONG THE
FRONT...SO SUPPOSE CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND USHER IN A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. PLENTY OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD SO WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL
DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING FAR NE WISCONSIN EARLY
IN THE MORNING AND THEN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO SATURATE ABOVE THE -10C
ISOTHERM...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED POPS OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHERE MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST AND SHOW ABOUT A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH WITH THE COMMA HEAD THROUGH THE DAY.
ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT SPRING
STORM TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEY AGREE THAT A UPPER TOUGH WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS WISCONSIN
WITH SOME PHASING WITH JET ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE
ARE MORE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND 850MB.
THE ECMWF IS WARMEST AND WOULD PRODUCE MORE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS WOULD PRODUCE
MOSTLY SNOW. WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD THIS SHOULD BE A VIGOROUS SYSTEM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW IN SOME PLACES AND PERHAPS
SIGNIFICANT ICE IN OTHERS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER THE PACIFIC
SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECASTS.
DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK TO NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN TOWARD HUDSON BAY TUESDAY
EVENING. A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...REACHING AUW/CWA AROUND 07Z...RHI 08Z-09Z...AND
ATW/GRB/MTW BETWEEN 09Z-10Z. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF FAR NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A WEAK
BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO PRECEDE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SOME MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...AND LINGER AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI.
WINDS WILL TURN SW-W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND SHOULD GUST
TO 30 TO 35 KTS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
946 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT LLJ
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER FAR NE WI THIS EVG. RECEIVED A REPORT OF
HALF INCH HAIL IN KEWAUNEE COUNTY EARLIER. HAVE ONLY KEPT THUNDER
IN THE FCST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS
FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WAS JUST GETTING TO THE FAR SW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT NOT SURE IF IT WILL SURVIVE AS IT MOVES
FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT. KEPT THE MENTION OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR
SNOW ACROSS NC WI TOWARD MORNING.
MADE SOME CHANGES TO LOWER TEMPS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS
UPSTREAM SFC OBS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE QUITE CHILLY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA.
RELATIVELY CLEAN LOOKING DRY SLOT IS PUSHING AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE
INTO SW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
DRY SLOT...SCT TO BKN ARCING LINE SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE DUE
TO PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 10 KFT. SOME SHOWERS LOOK TO BE REACHING
THE GROUND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH. LOOKING FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI VALLEY BUT SKIES ARE CLEAR ALONG IT THANKS TO THE DEEP DRY
SLOT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND SNOW EXIST
WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD. PLENTY OF FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH
TOMORROW...INCLUDING POTENTIAL AND TIMING OF PRECIP...AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TOMORROW.
TONIGHT...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...700MB FRONT/EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WILL WORK NE AND PUSH A BKN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LINE WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY TAME THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SUGGEST
INTENSIFICATION OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FGEN. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS
SCENARIO...SINCE THIS LINE OF SHOWERS HAS STRUGGLED DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF AMPLE DRY AIR...AS DEPICTED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS. WILL
TREND POPS UPWARD OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING...BUT
REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH QPF THAN THE MODELS. THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE DOOR PENINSULA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A RELATIVELY CLEAN DRY SLOT WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH
THIS FRONT SO PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN SMALL. BUT THE MESOMODELS
AND NAM CREATE ELEVATED CAPE UP TO ABOUT 100 J/KG ALONG THE
FRONT...SO SUPPOSE CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND USHER IN A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. PLENTY OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD SO WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL
DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING FAR NE WISCONSIN EARLY
IN THE MORNING AND THEN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO SATURATE ABOVE THE -10C
ISOTHERM...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED POPS OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHERE MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST AND SHOW ABOUT A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH WITH THE COMMA HEAD THROUGH THE DAY.
ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT SPRING
STORM TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEY AGREE THAT A UPPER TOUGH WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS WISCONSIN
WITH SOME PHASING WITH JET ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE
ARE MORE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND 850MB.
THE ECMWF IS WARMEST AND WOULD PRODUCE MORE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS WOULD PRODUCE
MOSTLY SNOW. WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD THIS SHOULD BE A VIGOROUS SYSTEM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW IN SOME PLACES AND PERHAPS
SIGNIFICANT ICE IN OTHERS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER THE PACIFIC
SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECASTS.
DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK NE TO LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA...REACHING AUW/CWA AROUND 07Z...RHI AROUND 08Z...AND ATW/
GRB/MTW BETWEEN 09Z-10Z. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT OF FAR NE WI EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
PERIOD UNTIL PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THINK THAT MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT IN SE MN AND EASTERN IA WILL WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING. AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SOME MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION...
AND LINGER AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
644 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA.
RELATIVELY CLEAN LOOKING DRY SLOT IS PUSHING AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE
INTO SW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
DRY SLOT...SCT TO BKN ARCING LINE SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE DUE
TO PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 10 KFT. SOME SHOWERS LOOK TO BE REACHING
THE GROUND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH. LOOKING FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI VALLEY BUT SKIES ARE CLEAR ALONG IT THANKS TO THE DEEP DRY
SLOT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND SNOW EXIST
WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD. PLENTY OF FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH
TOMORROW...INCLUDING POTENTIAL AND TIMING OF PRECIP...AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TOMORROW.
TONIGHT...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...700MB FRONT/EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WILL WORK NE AND PUSH A BKN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LINE WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY TAME THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SUGGEST
INTENSIFICATION OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FGEN. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS
SCENARIO...SINCE THIS LINE OF SHOWERS HAS STRUGGLED DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF AMPLE DRY AIR...AS DEPICTED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS. WILL
TREND POPS UPWARD OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING...BUT
REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH QPF THAN THE MODELS. THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE DOOR PENINSULA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A RELATIVELY CLEAN DRY SLOT WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH
THIS FRONT SO PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN SMALL. BUT THE MESOMODELS
AND NAM CREATE ELEVATED CAPE UP TO ABOUT 100 J/KG ALONG THE
FRONT...SO SUPPOSE CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND USHER IN A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. PLENTY OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD SO WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL
DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING FAR NE WISCONSIN EARLY
IN THE MORNING AND THEN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO SATURATE ABOVE THE -10C
ISOTHERM...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED POPS OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHERE MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST AND SHOW ABOUT A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH WITH THE COMMA HEAD THROUGH THE DAY.
ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT SPRING
STORM TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEY AGREE THAT A UPPER TOUGH WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS WISCONSIN
WITH SOME PHASING WITH JET ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE
ARE MORE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND 850MB.
THE ECMWF IS WARMEST AND WOULD PRODUCE MORE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS WOULD PRODUCE
MOSTLY SNOW. WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD THIS SHOULD BE A VIGOROUS SYSTEM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW IN SOME PLACES AND PERHAPS
SIGNIFICANT ICE IN OTHERS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER THE PACIFIC
SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECASTS.
DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK NE TO LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA...REACHING AUW/CWA AROUND 07Z...RHI AROUND 08Z...AND ATW/
GRB/MTW BETWEEN 09Z-10Z. LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE OUT OF FAR NE WI EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A DRY
PERIOD UNTIL PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THINK THAT MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT IN SE MN AND EASTERN IA WILL WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS THIS EVENING. AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SOME MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION...
AND LINGER AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WEST TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
616 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERCOLATE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/IA.
THE SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA
BY 00Z...GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. WITH GRADIENT WINDS ALREADY
STRONG...AND A DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...ANY STORM OR HEAVY RAIN SHOWER
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ENHANCED WIND GUSTS. COULD BE SOME
BORDER LINE SEVERE GUSTS. SOMETHING TO MONITOR. EXPECT A DIMINISHING
TREND AS THE SUNSET AND INSTABILITY WANES.
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLATED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH THE LOW...STRONG QG DIVERGENCE POST THE LOW FROM 06-18Z AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION 00-12Z. ALL VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS AT
THE SFC. IN ADDITION...GOOD PUSH OF MID LEVEL DRYING PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING. THIS HELPS WITH BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE
SFC. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADV. MIGHT NEED SOME EXPANSION OF THE
ADVISORY INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST WI...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL NOT DO SO AT THIS MOMENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
ON WED...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A 500 MB TROUGH PUSHES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY SCOOT ALONG THE FRONT...AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DECENT AMOUNT OF SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALONG-NORTH OF THE FRONT...PER TIME/HEIGHT X-
SECTIONS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS COMBO OF
FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BAND OF PCPN NORTH OF THE
FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS PLACE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT THAT SFC/NEAR
SFC TEMPS WILL BE THE CONTROLLING FACTOR FOR PCPN TYPE...RAIN OR
SNOW. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT ICE IN THE CLOUD COULD
BE A PROBLEM...MAKING FREEZING PCPN A POSSIBILITY. THINK RAIN AND
SNOW ARE PROBABLY THE MOST LIKELY PTYPES...BUT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE CALENDAR WILL SAY APRIL FOR THU/FRI...BUT OLD MAN WINTER SAYS IT
COULD BE A WINTRY MESS.
GFS/ECMWF WOULD BOTH BRING A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS OPEN
TO THE GULF...SO A GOOD TAP INTO MOISTURE...EVIDENCED BY THE 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. STRONG QG CONVERGENCE
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH A GOOD PUSH OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF COLD AIR TO THE
NORTH/WEST OF THE LOW TRACK. SYSTEM SHAPING UP TO BE STRONG
DYNAMICALLY WITH PLENTY OF THERMODYNAMIC FORCING IN THE MIX.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE BRINGS PCPN TYPE INTO QUESTION THOUGH.
NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING X-SECTION AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING IN
THE 900-700 MB LAYER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN FULL TO PARTIAL MELTING
OF FROZEN PCPN THROUGH THIS LAYER...AND THUS A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN AT
THE SFC. FARTHER NORTH/WEST...THE DEFORMATION REGION OF THE STORM
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...WITH RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT
EARLY SPRING AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN THE SOUTH...SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WOULD BE THE RULE. MEANWHILE...ICE IN THE
CLOUD WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS VIA THE GFS/NAM
KEEPING THE SATURATED LAYER WARMER THAN -10 C FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WED/EARLY THU. RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD RESULT IN THIS
SCENARIO...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FREEZING IF ROAD TEMPS ARE COLD
ENOUGH. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THIS TIME.
TRACK/TIMING OF THE SFC LOW WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
WHAT FALLS WHERE. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A SOUTHERN TRACK
FOR THE LOW...FAVORING BRINGING IT THROUGH ILL. THE EC HAS BEEN MORE
NORTH WITH ITS PLACEMENT...AND HAS GENERALLY TRENDED A BIT FASTER
THAN THE GFS.
WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND SOME WINTRY MIX LOOKING VERY PROBABLE
WITH THIS STORM...AT LEAST AT THIS TIME...WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
WOULD BE NEEDED IN THE THU/FRI FOR THE VARIOUS THREATS. THAT SAID...
WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM...WHERE THOSE
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ISN/T FOR CERTAIN. THERE WILL BE WEATHER
IMPACTS FOR THE REGION THOUGH...AND CLOSE ATTENTION SHOULD BE PAID
TO LATER FORECASTS AS THE DETAILS/CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS STORM WILL
EVOLVE INCREASE. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SHORT WINDOW OF SOME THUNDER TO KRST EARLY
THIS EVENING. AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...THE CAPE SHOULD
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SOME SUGGESTIONS BY THE 31.18Z NAM THAT THE
LINE MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KLSE. THE 31.21Z HRRR DOES SHOW A
DIMINISHING AND BROKEN LINE MAKING IT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...SO
HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF VCSH IN THE KLSE TAF. ONCE THE
CONVECTION MOVES PAST...THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WITH A
TURNING OF THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO GET MIXED
DOWN. EXPECT TO SEE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THOSE INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR KRST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT
AND EXPECT TO SEE THESE MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING AND THEN
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
CONTINUING THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BLACK RIVER...JACKSON/CLARK
COUNTIES...BUT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE TO WARNINGS LATER TODAY. THERE
ARE CONCERNS ON JUST HOW MUCH SNOW MELT WILL RUN OFF INTO
RIVERS/STREAMS AS FROST DEPTH VARIES GREATLY ACROSS THE NORTH. IF
THERE IS AN UPGRADE...THE FLOODING EXPECTED WOULD BE
MINOR...IMPACTING AGRICULTURAL AREAS.
ALREADY UPGRADED TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE TO A WARNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ029-033-034.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY....RIECK
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM SO FAR
TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AT STURGEON BAY AND
MANITOWOC TO THE MIDDLE 50S AT WISCONSIN RAPIDS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. NO SIGNS OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PLAINS JUST YET DESPITE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE TEMPS TONIGHT AND CHANCES OF PRECIP ON MONDAY.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS...RETURN FLOW AND 850MB THETAE
ADVECTION WILL BE RAMPING UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BUT THE AIR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SO DRY THAT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HOWEVER. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG. TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER NE WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.
MONDAY...A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THINK PRECIP CHANCES WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT UNSURE HOW PRECIP WILL EVOLVE. EVEN
THOUGH MODELS POINT TOWARDS BETTER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...THINK INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT AND THE
ARRIVAL OF A 700MB THETAE AXIS/EDGE OF DRY SLOT COULD LEAD TO A
BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODIFIED POPS A
BIT TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO...BUT STILL KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE RANGE DUE TO CONCERNS OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
WARM FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TEMPS MAY
NOT BE THAT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY TUESDAY WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING AT THE
SURFACE. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. THEN A FLAT UPPER RIDGE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. SO DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC SO WE WON/T HAVE TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. IT DOES LOOK INTERESTING WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL DELIVER LOW
LEVEL COLD DRY AIR SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW
FREEZING BUT ABOVE FREEZING AIR AROUND 850MB COULD MAKE FOR A MIXTURE
OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THE LOW...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE REGION. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OVER THE PERIOD...BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...BEFORE CIGS LOWER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
WARMER TEMPERATURES...MILDER WEATHER WILL PRODUCE MELTING SNOW AND
ICE AND RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF LOCAL FLOODING EARLY
THIS WEEK. THE SNOW IS VERY DEEP IN THE NORTH AND SHOULD BE ABLE
TO ABSORB RAINFALL WITHOUT FULLY MELTING. HOWEVER...PLACES WITH
JUST A FEW INCHES LEFT ON THE GROUND MAY HAVE MOST OF THE SNOW
MELT...WHICH MAY CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF ICE JAMS AS RIVER ICE BREAKS UP. A HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK
IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A RIDGE AXIS
FROM TEXAS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PROFILER AND VAD WIND DATA SHOWED
A CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWESTERLY 40-55 KT WINDS AT 925MB JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THESE WINDS ARE PROPELLING WARMER AIR THAT WAS
OBSERVED OVER THE PLAINS YESTERDAY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. ITS
WORTH NOTING HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S FROM WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA...ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 10 TO
20C. CLOUD COVER MOSTLY OF THE SCATTERED CIRRUS VARIETY...REFLECTIVE
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC ON WATER VAPOR.
AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND THE FORECAST AREA VERY DRY PER
00Z SOUNDINGS...NOTED TOO FROM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.2-
0.3 INCHES. AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED EAST TO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE
PRESSURES ARE FALLING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE
RIDGE HAS PUSHED ANY MEANINGFUL SURFACE MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS AT OR
ABOVE 40F...DOWN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER RIDGING PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SHIFT TO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE PUSH EAST TO THE RIDGE IS CAUSED BY THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AREA BY 12Z
MONDAY. ITS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA PROGGED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
DEEPENING LOW COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
12Z MONDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST CONCERN IS ON TEMPERATURES. 925MB
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY ON A BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND...RISING FROM 1 TO 5C AT 12Z TO 9 TO 13C BY
00Z. THESE READINGS HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR TONIGHT DUE TO PERSISTENT
25-35 KT SOUTH WINDS. COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
ADVECTION AND SUNSHINE SHOULD EASILY PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S ALONG
AND SOUTHWEST OF I-94. NORTH OF I-94...SNOW PACK AND COOLER 925MB
TEMPS WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. THE MIXING TODAY TOO WILL
BE LIMITED A LITTLE DUE TO SCT-BKN CIRRUS EMANATING FROM NEBRASKA
AREA CURRENTLY. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE TONIGHT...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS MIGHT DECOUPLE OR AT LEAST SEE LIGHTER
WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES THERE TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE AS SEEN AT 00Z LAST
EVENING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS FOR A WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION CORRELATES WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 305-310K SURFACES...OR AT PRESSURES ABOVE 700MB. IN ANY
EVENT...AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA STAYS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
MUCH OF THE FOCUS IS ON THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. IMPACTS
DESCRIBED BELOW...
SYNOPTICALLY...ATTENTION IS COMPLETELY ON THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION FOR HANDLING THIS NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH...THOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT TIMING SPREAD. MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE TROUGH LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z TUESDAY...
NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z TUESDAY AND INTO ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE CONSENSUS AND SEEMS A LITTLE
SUSPICIOUS...SEEING THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WOULD
SEEM A SLOWER AND DEEPER ROUTE WOULD BE THE WAY TO GO. REGARDING
THE SURFACE LOW...FOLLOWING THE SAME PREMISES...BELIEVE THE
SLOWER...DEEPER MORE WRAPPED SYSTEM PRESENTED BY THE
CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF IS MORE LIKELY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EVEN
GFS. WPC HAS ALSO FAVORED THE SAME MODELS.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT DEVELOPING OFF TO OUR
WEST LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. HARD TO SAY IF IT IS GOING TO PROGRESS INTO
WISCONSIN PRIOR TO 18Z SEEING THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF LOOK. THEREFORE
HAVE ONLY KEPT 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES 15-18Z. FOR THE AFTERNOON...
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL APART
AS IT MOVES INTO WISCONSIN...OR AT LEAST SHIFT NORTH INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN....ESPECIALLY IN THE CANADIAN MODELS. GFS 305-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGS SUGGEST THE SAME. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOSTLY IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE OUTSIDE
OF TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS WEST ON WHETHER SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG A COLD
FRONT / DRY LINE. THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF/UKMET ALL INITIATE A SCT-
BKN LINE OF SHOWERS NEAR I-35 TOWARDS 00Z. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO
HUGE CONCERNS FOR THIS BEING A LINE OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...
FIRST IS A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AROUND 700MB...SECOND ARE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WHICH MODELS TRY TO JUMP INTO THE LOW 50S. THE DEWPOINTS
SEEM WAY OVERDONE. NOW CANT RULE OUT THE LINE OF SHOWERS FORMING
MORE ABOVE THE CAP GIVEN FORCING FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION ALONG
WITH DPVA WITH THE TROUGH. SINCE THERE IS NO CAPE ABOVE THE CAP
AND CONCERNED PRECIPITATION MAY NOT FORM AT ALL...REMOVED THE
THUNDER CHANCE. THIS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE THE CONCERN OF ANY
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. IF A LINE DOES FORM...IT LOOKS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION LOOKS
MORE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT WRAPS IN. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE A LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THIS SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES...BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR ALL OF MONDAY WITH 9-13C
925MB READINGS...COMBINED WITH A WARMER START...THAT BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR MIXING AND BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS...HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SNOWPACK HOLDS TAYLOR DOWN INTO THE 50S. READINGS THEN
TANK MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR WRAPS IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
MUCH COOLER HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...THOUGH SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE MID 40S AS THE COLD AIR DEPARTS.
WINDS...SOUTHERLY 925MB WINDS INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. BY 21Z...MOST MODELS PROG
THEM AROUND 40 KT WHILE 850MB WINDS APPROACH 50-55 KT...STRONGEST
SOUTH OF I-90. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE GUSTS OF 30-
35 KT...WITH A PRESSURE FALL CROSSING EAU CLAIRE GIVING SOME
ISALLOBARIC HELP. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF NAM/GFS MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROGS ARE CORRECT...SUGGESTING 35-42 KT GUSTS. WITH THE
COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...925MB WINDS ARE A LITTLE LESS...CLOSER TO
35 KT FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THESE SHOULD EASILY MIX TO
THE GROUND. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE NEED FOR THE ADVISORY ON
THE COLD SIDE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WHICH IS PROGGED TO END UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS KEEPS A COLDER LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...ISENTROPIC LIFT OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PER 30.00Z
GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...30.00Z
CANADIAN AND ECMWF KEEP THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WHICH RESULTS IN MAINLY A DRY
FORECAST NORTH OF I-90 TO SOME 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES SOUTH. THURSDAY
COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS
WHEN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN POSSIBLE...MOSTLY
DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX AFTER 30.21Z AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO ONTARIO. AS IT DOES...THE
SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE AND
THE WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL END. THE WINDS WILL
DROP EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ON MONDAY MORNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO
TIGHTEN AS A STRENGHTENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IF THE WE DO NOT MIX FAST ENOUGH
DURING THE MORNING...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 25K DECK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 31.10Z AND THEN LOWER INTO THE 8 TO 15K RANGE. SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 31.15Z AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A MVFR
DECK MAY MOVE INTO KRST TOWARD 31.18Z. SINCE THIS WAS AT THE END
OF TAF PERIOD...DID NOT INCLUDE THEM AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
BASED ON GAUGE READINGS ALONG THE KICKAPOO FOR THOSE THAT STILL HAVE
FLOOD WARNINGS...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT THEY WILL MAKE IT TO
FLOOD. READSTOWN HAS STARTED FALLING...WHEN IT SHOULD STILL BE
RISING. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...THE WARNINGS MAY BE CANCELLED.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE BLACK...BUFFALO AND TREMPEALEAU RIVERS. THE
WARM UP OCCURRING TODAY AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY EVENING...
FEATURING HIGHS IN THE 55-65 RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 38-48 RANGE ALONG
WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS...WILL HELP RAPIDLY MELT THE SNOW PACK THAT
IS IN PLACE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10. THIS RUNOFF WILL MAKE
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY DURING THE WEEK. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK LESS AND LESS. AT THIS POINT...RAIN
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TO THE RIVERS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ029-033-034.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
555 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A RIDGE AXIS
FROM TEXAS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PROFILER AND VAD WIND DATA SHOWED
A CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWESTERLY 40-55 KT WINDS AT 925MB JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THESE WINDS ARE PROPELLING WARMER AIR THAT WAS
OBSERVED OVER THE PLAINS YESTERDAY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. ITS
WORTH NOTING HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S FROM WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA...ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 10 TO
20C. CLOUD COVER MOSTLY OF THE SCATTERED CIRRUS VARIETY...REFLECTIVE
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC ON WATER VAPOR.
AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND THE FORECAST AREA VERY DRY PER
00Z SOUNDINGS...NOTED TOO FROM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.2-
0.3 INCHES. AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED EAST TO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE
PRESSURES ARE FALLING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE
RIDGE HAS PUSHED ANY MEANINGFUL SURFACE MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS AT OR
ABOVE 40F...DOWN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER RIDGING PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SHIFT TO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE PUSH EAST TO THE RIDGE IS CAUSED BY THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AREA BY 12Z
MONDAY. ITS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA PROGGED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
DEEPENING LOW COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
12Z MONDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST CONCERN IS ON TEMPERATURES. 925MB
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY ON A BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND...RISING FROM 1 TO 5C AT 12Z TO 9 TO 13C BY
00Z. THESE READINGS HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR TONIGHT DUE TO PERSISTENT
25-35 KT SOUTH WINDS. COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
ADVECTION AND SUNSHINE SHOULD EASILY PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S ALONG
AND SOUTHWEST OF I-94. NORTH OF I-94...SNOW PACK AND COOLER 925MB
TEMPS WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. THE MIXING TODAY TOO WILL
BE LIMITED A LITTLE DUE TO SCT-BKN CIRRUS EMANATING FROM NEBRASKA
AREA CURRENTLY. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE TONIGHT...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS MIGHT DECOUPLE OR AT LEAST SEE LIGHTER
WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES THERE TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE AS SEEN AT 00Z LAST
EVENING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS FOR A WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION CORRELATES WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 305-310K SURFACES...OR AT PRESSURES ABOVE 700MB. IN ANY
EVENT...AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA STAYS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
MUCH OF THE FOCUS IS ON THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. IMPACTS
DESCRIBED BELOW...
SYNOPTICALLY...ATTENTION IS COMPLETELY ON THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION FOR HANDLING THIS NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH...THOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT TIMING SPREAD. MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE TROUGH LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z TUESDAY...
NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z TUESDAY AND INTO ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE CONSENSUS AND SEEMS A LITTLE
SUSPICIOUS...SEEING THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WOULD
SEEM A SLOWER AND DEEPER ROUTE WOULD BE THE WAY TO GO. REGARDING
THE SURFACE LOW...FOLLOWING THE SAME PREMISES...BELIEVE THE
SLOWER...DEEPER MORE WRAPPED SYSTEM PRESENTED BY THE
CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF IS MORE LIKELY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EVEN
GFS. WPC HAS ALSO FAVORED THE SAME MODELS.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT DEVELOPING OFF TO OUR
WEST LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. HARD TO SAY IF IT IS GOING TO PROGRESS INTO
WISCONSIN PRIOR TO 18Z SEEING THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF LOOK. THEREFORE
HAVE ONLY KEPT 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES 15-18Z. FOR THE AFTERNOON...
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL APART
AS IT MOVES INTO WISCONSIN...OR AT LEAST SHIFT NORTH INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN....ESPECIALLY IN THE CANADIAN MODELS. GFS 305-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGS SUGGEST THE SAME. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOSTLY IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE OUTSIDE
OF TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS WEST ON WHETHER SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG A COLD
FRONT / DRY LINE. THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF/UKMET ALL INITIATE A SCT-
BKN LINE OF SHOWERS NEAR I-35 TOWARDS 00Z. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO
HUGE CONCERNS FOR THIS BEING A LINE OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...
FIRST IS A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AROUND 700MB...SECOND ARE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WHICH MODELS TRY TO JUMP INTO THE LOW 50S. THE DEWPOINTS
SEEM WAY OVERDONE. NOW CANT RULE OUT THE LINE OF SHOWERS FORMING
MORE ABOVE THE CAP GIVEN FORCING FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION ALONG
WITH DPVA WITH THE TROUGH. SINCE THERE IS NO CAPE ABOVE THE CAP
AND CONCERNED PRECIPITATION MAY NOT FORM AT ALL...REMOVED THE
THUNDER CHANCE. THIS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE THE CONCERN OF ANY
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. IF A LINE DOES FORM...IT LOOKS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION LOOKS
MORE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT WRAPS IN. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE A LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THIS SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES...BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR ALL OF MONDAY WITH 9-13C
925MB READINGS...COMBINED WITH A WARMER START...THAT BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR MIXING AND BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS...HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SNOWPACK HOLDS TAYLOR DOWN INTO THE 50S. READINGS THEN
TANK MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR WRAPS IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
MUCH COOLER HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...THOUGH SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE MID 40S AS THE COLD AIR DEPARTS.
WINDS...SOUTHERLY 925MB WINDS INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. BY 21Z...MOST MODELS PROG
THEM AROUND 40 KT WHILE 850MB WINDS APPROACH 50-55 KT...STRONGEST
SOUTH OF I-90. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE GUSTS OF 30-
35 KT...WITH A PRESSURE FALL CROSSING EAU CLAIRE GIVING SOME
ISALLOBARIC HELP. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF NAM/GFS MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROGS ARE CORRECT...SUGGESTING 35-42 KT GUSTS. WITH THE
COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...925MB WINDS ARE A LITTLE LESS...CLOSER TO
35 KT FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THESE SHOULD EASILY MIX TO
THE GROUND. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE NEED FOR THE ADVISORY ON
THE COLD SIDE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WHICH IS PROGGED TO END UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS KEEPS A COLDER LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...ISENTROPIC LIFT OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PER 30.00Z
GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...30.00Z
CANADIAN AND ECMWF KEEP THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WHICH RESULTS IN MAINLY A DRY
FORECAST NORTH OF I-90 TO SOME 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES SOUTH. THURSDAY
COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS
WHEN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN POSSIBLE...MOSTLY
DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR AT KRST THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING
WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 16KTS...VEERING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
INCREASING INTO THE 50 TO 55 KT RANGE AT 1500 FT. LLWS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE PLAN ON BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
AT THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCT-BKN 25KFT
CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION TODAY. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING TO AROUND 15KFT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
BASED ON GAUGE READINGS ALONG THE KICKAPOO FOR THOSE THAT STILL HAVE
FLOOD WARNINGS...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT THEY WILL MAKE IT TO
FLOOD. READSTOWN HAS STARTED FALLING...WHEN IT SHOULD STILL BE
RISING. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...THE WARNINGS MAY BE CANCELLED.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE BLACK...BUFFALO AND TREMPEALEAU RIVERS. THE
WARM UP OCCURRING TODAY AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY EVENING...
FEATURING HIGHS IN THE 55-65 RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 38-48 RANGE ALONG
WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS...WILL HELP RAPIDLY MELT THE SNOW PACK THAT
IS IN PLACE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10. THIS RUNOFF WILL MAKE
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY DURING THE WEEK. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK LESS AND LESS. AT THIS POINT...RAIN
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TO THE RIVERS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
319 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A RIDGE AXIS
FROM TEXAS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PROFILER AND VAD WIND DATA SHOWED
A CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWESTERLY 40-55 KT WINDS AT 925MB JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THESE WINDS ARE PROPELLING WARMER AIR THAT WAS
OBSERVED OVER THE PLAINS YESTERDAY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. ITS
WORTH NOTING HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S FROM WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA...ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 10 TO
20C. CLOUD COVER MOSTLY OF THE SCATTERED CIRRUS VARIETY...REFLECTIVE
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PACIFIC ON WATER VAPOR.
AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND THE FORECAST AREA VERY DRY PER
00Z SOUNDINGS...NOTED TOO FROM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.2-
0.3 INCHES. AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED EAST TO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE
PRESSURES ARE FALLING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE
RIDGE HAS PUSHED ANY MEANINGFUL SURFACE MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS AT OR
ABOVE 40F...DOWN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
SYNOPTICALLY...THE UPPER RIDGING PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SHIFT TO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE PUSH EAST TO THE RIDGE IS CAUSED BY THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AREA BY 12Z
MONDAY. ITS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE SHORTWAVE BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED.
WITH THE FORECAST AREA PROGGED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
DEEPENING LOW COMING OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
12Z MONDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST CONCERN IS ON TEMPERATURES. 925MB
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY ON A BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND...RISING FROM 1 TO 5C AT 12Z TO 9 TO 13C BY
00Z. THESE READINGS HOLD NEARLY STEADY FOR TONIGHT DUE TO PERSISTENT
25-35 KT SOUTH WINDS. COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
ADVECTION AND SUNSHINE SHOULD EASILY PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 60S ALONG
AND SOUTHWEST OF I-94. NORTH OF I-94...SNOW PACK AND COOLER 925MB
TEMPS WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S. THE MIXING TODAY TOO WILL
BE LIMITED A LITTLE DUE TO SCT-BKN CIRRUS EMANATING FROM NEBRASKA
AREA CURRENTLY. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE TONIGHT...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS MIGHT DECOUPLE OR AT LEAST SEE LIGHTER
WINDS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES THERE TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE AS SEEN AT 00Z LAST
EVENING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS FOR A WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION CORRELATES WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 305-310K SURFACES...OR AT PRESSURES ABOVE 700MB. IN ANY
EVENT...AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA STAYS DRY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
MUCH OF THE FOCUS IS ON THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. IMPACTS
DESCRIBED BELOW...
SYNOPTICALLY...ATTENTION IS COMPLETELY ON THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION FOR HANDLING THIS NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH...THOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT TIMING SPREAD. MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE TROUGH LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z TUESDAY...
NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z TUESDAY AND INTO ONTARIO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE
NAM REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE CONSENSUS AND SEEMS A LITTLE
SUSPICIOUS...SEEING THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WOULD
SEEM A SLOWER AND DEEPER ROUTE WOULD BE THE WAY TO GO. REGARDING
THE SURFACE LOW...FOLLOWING THE SAME PREMISES...BELIEVE THE
SLOWER...DEEPER MORE WRAPPED SYSTEM PRESENTED BY THE
CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF IS MORE LIKELY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND EVEN
GFS. WPC HAS ALSO FAVORED THE SAME MODELS.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT DEVELOPING OFF TO OUR
WEST LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. HARD TO SAY IF IT IS GOING TO PROGRESS INTO
WISCONSIN PRIOR TO 18Z SEEING THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF LOOK. THEREFORE
HAVE ONLY KEPT 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES 15-18Z. FOR THE AFTERNOON...
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL APART
AS IT MOVES INTO WISCONSIN...OR AT LEAST SHIFT NORTH INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN....ESPECIALLY IN THE CANADIAN MODELS. GFS 305-310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGS SUGGEST THE SAME. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOSTLY IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE OUTSIDE
OF TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS WEST ON WHETHER SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN FIRE ALONG A COLD
FRONT / DRY LINE. THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF/UKMET ALL INITIATE A SCT-
BKN LINE OF SHOWERS NEAR I-35 TOWARDS 00Z. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO
HUGE CONCERNS FOR THIS BEING A LINE OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...
FIRST IS A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AROUND 700MB...SECOND ARE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WHICH MODELS TRY TO JUMP INTO THE LOW 50S. THE DEWPOINTS
SEEM WAY OVERDONE. NOW CANT RULE OUT THE LINE OF SHOWERS FORMING
MORE ABOVE THE CAP GIVEN FORCING FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION ALONG
WITH DPVA WITH THE TROUGH. SINCE THERE IS NO CAPE ABOVE THE CAP
AND CONCERNED PRECIPITATION MAY NOT FORM AT ALL...REMOVED THE
THUNDER CHANCE. THIS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE THE CONCERN OF ANY
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. IF A LINE DOES FORM...IT LOOKS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION LOOKS
MORE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT WRAPS IN. MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE A LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THIS SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES...BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR ALL OF MONDAY WITH 9-13C
925MB READINGS...COMBINED WITH A WARMER START...THAT BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR MIXING AND BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS...HIGHS AGAIN SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SNOWPACK HOLDS TAYLOR DOWN INTO THE 50S. READINGS THEN
TANK MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR WRAPS IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
MUCH COOLER HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...THOUGH SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE MID 40S AS THE COLD AIR DEPARTS.
WINDS...SOUTHERLY 925MB WINDS INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. BY 21Z...MOST MODELS PROG
THEM AROUND 40 KT WHILE 850MB WINDS APPROACH 50-55 KT...STRONGEST
SOUTH OF I-90. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE GUSTS OF 30-
35 KT...WITH A PRESSURE FALL CROSSING EAU CLAIRE GIVING SOME
ISALLOBARIC HELP. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF NAM/GFS MOMENTUM
TRANSFER PROGS ARE CORRECT...SUGGESTING 35-42 KT GUSTS. WITH THE
COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...925MB WINDS ARE A LITTLE LESS...CLOSER TO
35 KT FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THESE SHOULD EASILY MIX TO
THE GROUND. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE NEED FOR THE ADVISORY ON
THE COLD SIDE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WHICH IS PROGGED TO END UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS KEEPS A COLDER LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...ISENTROPIC LIFT OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PER 30.00Z
GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...30.00Z
CANADIAN AND ECMWF KEEP THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WHICH RESULTS IN MAINLY A DRY
FORECAST NORTH OF I-90 TO SOME 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES SOUTH. THURSDAY
COULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS
WHEN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE TROUGH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN POSSIBLE...MOSTLY
DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME STRONG
LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL GET INTO RST OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME 50KT WINDS AROUND 1.5KFT. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO
30KT RANGE. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE AFTERNOON...THE WINDS
WILL START TO SUBSIDE. CLOUD COVER LOOKS FAIRLY MINIMAL AND MAINLY
ABOVE 15KFT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
BASED ON GAUGE READINGS ALONG THE KICKAPOO FOR THOSE THAT STILL HAVE
FLOOD WARNINGS...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT THEY WILL MAKE IT TO
FLOOD. READSTOWN HAS STARTED FALLING...WHEN IT SHOULD STILL BE
RISING. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...THE WARNINGS MAY BE CANCELLED.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE BLACK...BUFFALO AND TREMPEALEAU RIVERS. THE
WARM UP OCCURRING TODAY AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY EVENING...
FEATURING HIGHS IN THE 55-65 RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 38-48 RANGE ALONG
WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS...WILL HELP RAPIDLY MELT THE SNOW PACK THAT
IS IN PLACE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10. THIS RUNOFF WILL MAKE
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY DURING THE WEEK. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK LESS AND LESS. AT THIS POINT...RAIN
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TO THE RIVERS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1110 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
LOWERED SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AGAIN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE STORM EXITS TO THE EAST.
&&
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING
THROUGH KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME WITH WINDS INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL /HRRR/
FORECASTS THE WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 11Z /0400 PDT/
TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH. THEREFORE...WINDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE DESERTS. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO OXNARD...HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS THROUGH 10Z /0300 PDT/
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WAS
SUPERSEDED BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH TOOK EFFECT AT 05Z
TUESDAY /2200 PDT THIS EVENING/.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE
THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TO EXPIRE.
SPOTTERS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS HAVE REPORTED SNOW
FALLING AS LOW AS 3000 FEET IN THE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW LEVEL AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR 06Z-12Z TUESDAY
/2300 PDT MONDAY-0500 PDT TUESDAY/ FOR THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
AT 05Z TUESDAY /2200 PDT THIS EVENING/ CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WERE AT OR NEAR THIS
MORNING/S LOW TEMPERATURES. EXPECT THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL...VALLEY
SITE MAY HAVE LATE LOWS TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION BAND MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SPOTTER IN COARSEGOLD REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM
WITH PEA-SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND...AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION
NETWORK GRAPHIC SHOWS NUMEROUS IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD-GROUND STRIKES.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO EXTEND THE AREA OF
THUNDER SOUTHWARD INTO FRESNO...KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...AND
CHANGED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT CONTINUE JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT WANT TO DROP THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS PREMATURELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH 05Z WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED. MVFR
DUE TO CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS IN THE
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z WED OVER MUCH OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS. BLOWING DUST...WITH VISIBILITY
AT OR BELOW A MILE AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...
WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND IN
KERN COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SIERRA CREST THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 327 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE-LADEN STORM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP
ROLLING THROUGH STANISLAUS COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO MERCED
COUNTY. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TRYING TO MOISTEN-UP...
PRECIP WILL BEGIN FALLING BEFORE 500 PM PDT. MOREOVER...WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO SANTA CRUZ/SANTA CLARA...THE CHANCES
OF WET WEATHER HITTING MERCED ARE VERY GOOD. AHEAD OF TODAY/S COLD
FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WILL EXPECT WINDS
TO WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH THE 35 TO 45 MPH SPEED THRESHOLD FOR
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE LACK OF RAIN OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL MAKE BLOW DUST A BIG PROBLEM FROM RIDGECREST TO
ROSAMOND AND BORON. THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL HAS THE WINDS
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL AT AROUND 200 PM PDT AND ENDING AT
AROUND 10 PM PDT TONIGHT.
BEYOND THE WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM...RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE DISTRICT TONIGHT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC
MODELS TIME THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO NEAR 400 PM PDT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CURRENT ESTIMATES
HAVE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE VALLEY
AND 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.
WHILE SNOW MAY NOT STICK TO THE ROAD OVER TEJON PASS...THE
GRAPEVINE WAS INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLICK
ROADS MAKING DRIVING DIFFICULT.
AFTER TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT...THE MAIN AREA OF ENERGY MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING 500MB TEMP OF
MINUS 28 DEG-C PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK WIND
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO TEMPORARY DRY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER
STORM. WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SEE THE LAST OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS
WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE CURRENT LONGER RANGE
PROGS SHOW THE THIRD STORM MOVING FURTHER NORTH...SOME OF ITS
ENERGY COULD REACH THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY...WILL PLACE A MENTION
OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AND ACROSS
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE NEXT STORM AND
FINALIZE THIS NEXT STORM AFTERWARD.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 03-31 89:1966 50:1967 58:1986 31:1905
KFAT 04-01 90:1966 49:1982 56:1939 32:1975
KFAT 04-02 87:1985 56:1907 57:2011 34:1982
KBFL 03-31 90:2003 50:1925 60:1969 32:1908
KBFL 04-01 88:2011 54:1998 62:1900 32:1917
KBFL 04-02 90:1985 57:1981 60:2002 35:1999
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS
/CAZ098-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1040 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
LOWERED SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AGAIN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE STORM EXITS TO THE EAST.
&&
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING
THROUGH KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME WITH WINDS INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL /HRRR/
FORECASTS THE WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 11Z /0400 PDT/
TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH. THEREFORE...WINDS OVER THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ARE LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE DESERTS. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO OXNARD...HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH 10Z
/0300 PDT/ TUESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE
THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TO EXPIRE.
SPOTTERS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS HAVE REPORTED SNOW
FALLING AS LOW AS 3000 FEET IN THE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW LEVEL AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR 06Z-12Z TUESDAY
/2300 PDT MONDAY-0500 PDT TUESDAY/ FOR THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
AT 05Z TUESDAY /2200 PDT THIS EVENING/ CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WERE AT OR NEAR THIS
MORNING/S LOW TEMPERATURES. EXPECT THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL...VALLEY
SITE MAY HAVE LATE LOWS TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION BAND MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SPOTTER IN COARSEGOLD REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM
WITH PEA-SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND...AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION
NETWORK GRAPHIC SHOWS NUMEROUS IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD-GROUND STRIKES.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO EXTEND THE AREA OF
THUNDER SOUTHWARD INTO FRESNO...KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...AND
CHANGED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT CONTINUE JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT WANT TO DROP THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS PREMATURELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH 05Z WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED. MVFR
DUE TO CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS IN THE
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z WED OVER MUCH OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS. BLOWING DUST...WITH VISIBILITY
AT OR BELOW A MILE AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...
WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND IN
KERN COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SIERRA CREST THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 327 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE-LADEN STORM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP
ROLLING THROUGH STANISLAUS COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO MERCED
COUNTY. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TRYING TO MOISTEN-UP...
PRECIP WILL BEGIN FALLING BEFORE 500 PM PDT. MOREOVER...WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO SANTA CRUZ/SANTA CLARA...THE CHANCES
OF WET WEATHER HITTING MERCED ARE VERY GOOD. AHEAD OF TODAY/S COLD
FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WILL EXPECT WINDS
TO WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH THE 35 TO 45 MPH SPEED THRESHOLD FOR
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE LACK OF RAIN OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL MAKE BLOW DUST A BIG PROBLEM FROM RIDGECREST TO
ROSAMOND AND BORON. THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL HAS THE WINDS
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL AT AROUND 200 PM PDT AND ENDING AT
AROUND 10 PM PDT TONIGHT.
BEYOND THE WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM...RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE DISTRICT TONIGHT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC
MODELS TIME THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO NEAR 400 PM PDT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CURRENT ESTIMATES
HAVE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE VALLEY
AND 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.
WHILE SNOW MAY NOT STICK TO THE ROAD OVER TEJON PASS...THE
GRAPEVINE WAS INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLICK
ROADS MAKING DRIVING DIFFICULT.
AFTER TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT...THE MAIN AREA OF ENERGY MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING 500MB TEMP OF
MINUS 28 DEG-C PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK WIND
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO TEMPORARY DRY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER
STORM. WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SEE THE LAST OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS
WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE CURRENT LONGER RANGE
PROGS SHOW THE THIRD STORM MOVING FURTHER NORTH...SOME OF ITS
ENERGY COULD REACH THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY...WILL PLACE A MENTION
OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AND ACROSS
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE NEXT STORM AND
FINALIZE THIS NEXT STORM AFTERWARD.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 03-31 89:1966 50:1967 58:1986 31:1905
KFAT 04-01 90:1966 49:1982 56:1939 32:1975
KFAT 04-02 87:1985 56:1907 57:2011 34:1982
KBFL 03-31 90:2003 50:1925 60:1969 32:1908
KBFL 04-01 88:2011 54:1998 62:1900 32:1917
KBFL 04-02 90:1985 57:1981 60:2002 35:1999
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
/CAZ095/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS
/CAZ098-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1020 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
LOWERED SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AGAIN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE STORM EXITS TO THE EAST.
&&
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING
THROUGH KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS HAVE INCREASED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND MOVES
INTO THE DESERTS. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO OXNARD...HAVE EXTENDED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
10Z /0300 PDT/ TUESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY HAVE MOSTLY DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE
THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TO EXPIRE.
SPOTTERS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS HAVE REPORTED SNOW
FALLING AS LOW AS 3000 FEET IN THE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW LEVEL AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR 06Z-12Z TUESDAY
/2300 PDT MONDAY-0500 PDT TUESDAY/ FOR THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
AT 05Z TUESDAY /2200 PDT THIS EVENING/ CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WERE AT OR NEAR THIS
MORNING/S LOW TEMPERATURES. EXPECT THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL...VALLEY
SITE MAY HAVE LATE LOWS TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS THIS
EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION BAND MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. SPOTTER IN COARSEGOLD REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM
WITH PEA-SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND...AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION
NETWORK GRAPHIC SHOWS NUMEROUS IN-CLOUD AND CLOUD-GROUND STRIKES.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO EXTEND THE AREA OF
THUNDER SOUTHWARD INTO FRESNO...KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES...AND
CHANGED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT CONTINUE JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT WANT TO DROP THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS PREMATURELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH 05Z WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED. MVFR
DUE TO CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS IN THE
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z WED OVER MUCH OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS. BLOWING DUST...WITH VISIBILITY
AT OR BELOW A MILE AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...
WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND IN
KERN COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SIERRA CREST THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 327 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE-LADEN STORM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP
ROLLING THROUGH STANISLAUS COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO MERCED
COUNTY. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TRYING TO MOISTEN-UP...
PRECIP WILL BEGIN FALLING BEFORE 500 PM PDT. MOREOVER...WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO SANTA CRUZ/SANTA CLARA...THE CHANCES
OF WET WEATHER HITTING MERCED ARE VERY GOOD. AHEAD OF TODAY/S COLD
FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WILL EXPECT WINDS
TO WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH THE 35 TO 45 MPH SPEED THRESHOLD FOR
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE LACK OF RAIN OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL MAKE BLOW DUST A BIG PROBLEM FROM RIDGECREST TO
ROSAMOND AND BORON. THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL HAS THE WINDS
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL AT AROUND 200 PM PDT AND ENDING AT
AROUND 10 PM PDT TONIGHT.
BEYOND THE WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM...RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE DISTRICT TONIGHT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC
MODELS TIME THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO NEAR 400 PM PDT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CURRENT ESTIMATES
HAVE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE VALLEY
AND 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.
WHILE SNOW MAY NOT STICK TO THE ROAD OVER TEJON PASS...THE
GRAPEVINE WAS INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLICK
ROADS MAKING DRIVING DIFFICULT.
AFTER TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT...THE MAIN AREA OF ENERGY MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING 500MB TEMP OF
MINUS 28 DEG-C PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK WIND
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO TEMPORARY DRY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER
STORM. WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SEE THE LAST OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS
WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE CURRENT LONGER RANGE
PROGS SHOW THE THIRD STORM MOVING FURTHER NORTH...SOME OF ITS
ENERGY COULD REACH THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY...WILL PLACE A MENTION
OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AND ACROSS
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE NEXT STORM AND
FINALIZE THIS NEXT STORM AFTERWARD.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 03-31 89:1966 50:1967 58:1986 31:1905
KFAT 04-01 90:1966 49:1982 56:1939 32:1975
KFAT 04-02 87:1985 56:1907 57:2011 34:1982
KBFL 03-31 90:2003 50:1925 60:1969 32:1908
KBFL 04-01 88:2011 54:1998 62:1900 32:1917
KBFL 04-02 90:1985 57:1981 60:2002 35:1999
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
/CAZ095/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS
/CAZ098-099/.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...SANGER
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1243 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
842 PM CDT
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH REQUIRED A FEW FORECAST UPDATES. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM. THAT
COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM A SPEED MAX PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IL
HELPED FORCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINKING THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION THINKING VERY FEW
PLACES WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN THE LARGE TEMP DEWPOINT
SPREADS. ORD AND MDW BOTH FEATURE LOW 60 TEMPS OVER 30 DEWPOINTS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND IT CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
JEE
//PREV DISCUSSION...
346 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH COULD INCLUDE THUNDER OR EVEN FROZEN PRECIP
IN SOME LOCATIONS.
IN THE NEAR TERM...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE EVEN COME PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 70 DEGREE MARK...AND WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE SOME LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE REACHED 70
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...OVERALL WARMING TEMPS ARE EITHER NOW
HOLDING STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING AND IS DUE TO THICKER CLOUD
COVER FINALLY MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS HAVE REALLY RAMPED OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING OUT AHEAD
OF SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST...WHILE
MAIN SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SPORADIC
WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED HEAR IN THE NEAR TERM AND
WOULD EXPECT THIS HIGHER GUSTS TO LIKELY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WITH OVERALL PREVAILING WINDS/GUSTS NOT LIKELY
BEING QUITE AS HIGH. SHOWERS WHICH HAVE BEEN APPROACHING THE CWA
ALL DAY HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AS THEY APPROACHED A REALLY DRY
AIRMASS...WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
JUST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. A CONTINUED DRY TREND IS
MORE LIKELY HERE IN THE NEAR TERM WITH LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE NOW
LIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING AS WAA PERSISTS...AND WHILE BETTER
LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS AND SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT APPROACH THE CWA. A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY IN THE 20S IN SOME
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME AND DONT FEEL THAT EVERYTHING
WILL COME TOGETHER TO ALLOW ANY PREVAILING PRECIP TO DEVELOP...AND
ESPECIALLY WHEN ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE CWA IS STILL BE
OFFSET WITH MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
AFTER THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
30S FOR LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY IS APPEARING QUIET WITH LARGE VORT MAX LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA...A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED AS HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT THE 40S...AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING THE WESTERN CONUS. EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVES AND
WAA SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO START
SPREADING NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
VARIABILITY WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP...WHICH WILL
BE ALL RAIN...REMAINS AT THIS TIME AND SO HAVE LIMITED CHANCES
POPS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH
WAA PUSH TO PROVIDE PRECIP TO REALLY SPREAD NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH CHANCES PERSISTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LLJ REALLY BECOMES FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. APPROACHING
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND A MORE MOIST AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED NORTH
WILL KEEP THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL RAIN...BUT WITH SOME
CONCERN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS COULD HOVER AROUND THE LOW 30S.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOTE MADE MENTION OF
IT...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. ALSO DURING
THIS TIME...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO INCH CLOSER TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN CWA. THIS COINCIDING WITH A DECENT LLJ...HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.
AS THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY...LLJ WILL VEER
AND A PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A
DRIER PERIOD DURING THE DAY...BEFORE PRECIP MOVES BACK TOWARDS THE
CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME SLIGHT VARIABILITY WITH
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH LIKELY CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AND WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.
OVERALL EXTENT OF INSTABILITY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH...THE
TIME OF DAY THAT THIS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA SHOULD HELP LIMIT
OVERALL INTENSITY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TURNING WSW OVERNIGHT.
* CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS 025-030 TUESDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD TURNING WSW BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND REMAINING GUSTY. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THE FRONT HAS
DIMINISHED...AND EXPECT IT TO PASS OVER THE TERMINALS DRY TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR STRATUS DECK OVER
PORTIONS OF IOWA SPREADING EAST TRAILING THE COLD FRONT. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO RFD EARLY MORNING...BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO
SPREAD EAST FARTHER INTO THE CHICAGO TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOCALLY TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...EAST FLOW. RAIN LIKELY WITH IFR LIKELY ESPECIALLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY...EAST FLOW. RAIN LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT.
IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW DURING THE
NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR LIKELY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
211 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO
TUESDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN BUT THE WARM AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING A SHARP INVERSION IN
PLACE MITIGATING WIND GUSTS...WITH WINDS OF AROUND 40 KT JUST A FEW
HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
TONIGHT TURNING WINDS SOUTHWEST THEN WEST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
BETTER MIXING WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN
BUT SPEEDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE EASING SOMEWHAT. DESPITE
THIS...WINDS TO 30 KT ARE STILL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SOME 35 KT
GALES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SET UP LOOKS MARGINAL ENOUGH TO KEEP FREQUENT GALES FROM
OCCURRING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE HEADLINES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE IL/IN WATERS HOWEVER. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TO EASE BUT ANOTHER LOW WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A TROUGH AXIS/WARM FRONT
WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS SOUTH.
THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BETTER ORGANIZE AND TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR OR
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SOME TIME FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH THIS
TIMING MAY CHANGE A BIT. THIS WILL BRING A SHIFT FROM AN EASTERLY
WIND TO SOME VARIATION OF A WESTERLY WIND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW
TRACKS INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOES LOOK TO CROSS THE LAKE OVER
THE WEEKEND BRINGING A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 848 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
01z/8pm surface analysis shows cold front extending from eastern Iowa
into central Missouri. Thin line of convection has developed along
the front and is progressing eastward toward the Mississippi
River: however, latest HRRR still suggests it will dissipate as it
pushes into west-central Illinois later this evening. Surface obs
show only a narrow ribbon of moisture return from the Gulf
immediately along the front, with dewpoints quickly dropping off
into the upper 30s/lower 40s further east into western Illinois.
Given limited moisture and latest radar imagery beginning to show
a weakening trend, will maintain just low chance POPs west of the
I-55 corridor through midnight. Further east, will go with a dry
forecast for the remainder of the KILX CWA. Zone update has
already been issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Cold front is currently making its way through the Illinois River
Valley and will quickly pass through central Illinois over the next
couple of hours, accompanied by little more than a few mid-level
clouds and a shift in the wind. Made a few minor adjustments to
FROPA timing from previous forecast, with winds shifting to westerly
at KPIA/KSPI at 06z, then further east to KCMI by 08z. After front
exits into Indiana, mostly clear skies and brisk westerly winds
will continue through Tuesday morning. As pressure gradient
weakens, winds will diminish Tuesday afternoon/evening. After
that, warm frontal boundary will begin to lift back northward,
spreading clouds and perhaps a few showers into the area Tuesday
evening. Forecast soundings indicate VFR ceilings of around 5000ft
developing along/north of the front after 02/03z.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Strong southerly winds gusts occurring about as expected today
ahead of an approaching cold front. Also, as anticipated, the
pre-frontal precipitation has been minimal thus far. Main near
term forecast concern remains the winds and how much precipitation
will occur until frontal passage later tonight. Then, attention
turns to the extended wet period that should occur from Tuesday
night into Friday.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday: Broken pre-frontal band of
showers and a few thunderstorms has continued to struggle to
maintain itself as it has pushed east today. However, the cold
front associated with the current storm system is still well to
the west, extending from low pressure centered over southwest
Minnesota into central Texas. Recent satellite loops have shown a
CU field beginning to fire along the front, so until the front
clears the area later tonight a stray shower can`t be ruled out.
However, as these clouds have a strong diurnal component to them,
would not be surprised to see these clouds and any precipitation
associated with them dying off within a few hours of sunset.
Then, after a brief break in the precipitation risk on Tuesday, the
well advertised prolonged precipitation event is still on track
for Tuesday night into Friday. While it will not be raining the
entire time, there are enough minor model differences to preclude
tying to add a dry period at this time.
From Tuesday night into Thursday the forecast area will lie
between strong upper troffing over eastern Canada and the
Southwest United States. The forcing between these two features
will consist primarily of jet streak induced upper divergence
/mid-level frontogenesis, as well as periodically strong
isentropic ascent across a stout baroclinic/frontal zone. Still
some model disagreement with respect to where the surface front
will lie for much of the period, which will be the dividing line
between elevated and surface based convection. The latest
consensus has the the surface frontal zone wavering between the
I-70 and I-72 corridor. This consensus is a little further north
than yesterday, so have pushed the thunder risk north across much
of the forecast area for most of the period, especially since
mid-level lapse rates are steep even well north of the surface
front.
The remnants of the southwest U.S. upper low, and associated
surface low, will push across the area Thursday night into Friday.
This could result in a period of more robust convection, although
the current timing of its passage is not terribly favorable for
severe weather.
The temperature forecast from Tuesday-Friday will be quite tricky
due to the strong thermal gradient that is apt to be across the
area. Our current forecast will exhibit a north to south thermal
gradient of approximately 20 degrees for much of the period. A
major temperature forecast bust is possible if the models continue
to shift the ultimate location of the surface front.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Monday: Quieter, cooler than normal,
weather is expected for much of the weekend in the wake of the
extended wet period. Another strong system may be in our vicinity
for the beginning of next week. However, model agreement in the
details is quite poor, and have only carried Slight Chance PoPs
Sunday night into Monday with its possible arrival.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WAS OVER
NORTHEAST NE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS IT REACHED THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE
DRY/CLEAR SLOT OVER MUCH OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW N/S
ORIENTED CU FIELD JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST STARTING
TO DEVELOP AROUND 19Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN WI BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING.
STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING THEN TURN WESTERLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER NIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE LOW WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THE
STRONGER PRESSURE RISES WILL ALSO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT SO WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY.
MESO MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY IN SHOWING A SECOND LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE DRY
SLOT OVER CENTRAL IOWA...ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE MODELS BRING THE
PRECIPITATION EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE CU DEVELOPMENT
ONGOING OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED CAPES. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE
LINE. IF THIS OCCURS THEN THE STRONGER STORMS MAY HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONSIDERING THE STRONG
ENVIRONMENT WINDS AND DEEP/DRY SUB CLOUD BASE LAYER. LOW WEB BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7KFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME SUB SEVERE HAIL.
THE THREAT OF THE STRONGER STORMS IS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SINCE THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS IT
NEARS THE MISSISSIPPI.
COLDER AIR POURING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD LATE TONIGHT AND LIFT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY BASED ON
MIXING UP TO 900MB.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN WITH STRONG SYSTEM MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ONE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY...AN INTENSE DIGGING UPPER LOW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
LOOPS SWIRLING OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS HAS A 130 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR
CUMULUS...INDICATIVE OF A VERY COLD POCKET ALOFT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE IN
SOUTHEAST CO. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE WITH AN EXCELLENT FEED OFF
THE WESTERN GULF. WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MO SETTING
UP AN IDEAL UPGLIDE OF THE DEEPENING MOISTURE...AND ALLOWING FOR RAIN
TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER ALL THE CWA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. I WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH POPS WHICH HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT
SIGNAL FOR DAYS NOW. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN ON THURSDAY AS
THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THIS REGARD. COPIOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS TRENDING A BIT SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF TAKES THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
CYCLONE INTO EASTERN IA TO NORTHERN LAKE MI WHILE THE GFS HAS THE
LOW TRACKING INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA AND THEN TO NEAR CHICAGO.
EITHER SOLUTION OFFERS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME THE DEFORMATION ZONE
PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE DVN CWA.
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS TO
3 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. (WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE FROST IS PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE GROUND SO AS
TO ALLOW THE RAIN TO SOAK IN...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO ISSUES).
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY WITH THE WEEKEND DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WELL
ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY (ECMWF)...BUT
MUCH WEAKER (GFS). IF THE LATEST RUNS VERIFY THEN TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK MAY BE TOO WARM AND THE ALL BLEND WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK AWAY.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL MN WILL MOVE TO LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE DAY. STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS 20-30 KTS WILL
USHER IN WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF I-80. LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
BELOW 10 KTS TOWARD EVENING AND TURN NORTHERLY. A CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL DEVELOP FAR SOUTHEAST IA NEAR KBRL ON SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND...AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MO.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
345 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY
ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STUBBORN LOW PRES CONTS TO SPIN WELL SE OF THE AREA (S OF ERN NS
ATTM) W/ A PERSISTENT BAND OF LGT SNOW CONTG TO XTND BACK SWWRD
INTO OUR SERN AREAS - MAINLY NRN/CENTRAL WASH COUNTY ATTM. CALL TO
TOPSFIELD DOT RPTD LGT SNOW W/ SOME BLSN W/ ABT 6 INCHES IN
VANCEBORO... WILL CONT THE CURRENT WNTR WX ADV FOR ZN 32 AND THE
WNTR STORM WRNG FOR ZN 17. HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND FINALLY
DISSIPATING AND MOVG E OF THE AREAS BY ERLY AM SO WILL CONT THE
ADV/WRNG TIL 10Z.
OTHERWISE...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ SEASONAL TEMPS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA W/ CLRG SKIES ACROSS THE N AND W. THIS TREND WILL CONT TO
SPREAD EWRD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AM AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY AND CLR NGT TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED NR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE TNGT
W/ LOWS ABT 5 DEGREES BLO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
MOISTURE DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OR SNOW ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
RUNNING FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY,
BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE MAINE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN LIFT INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS LEADS TO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIP TYPE
BECAUSE IT HINGES ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY LOW CAN MAKE IT BEFORE THE SECONDARY TAKES OVER. AT THIS
TIME, MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER STARTING OUT AS SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH ON SATURDAY TO ALLOW A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WRAP BACK SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
LOW. HOWEVER, ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS
WARM AIR TRIES TO SLIDE BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WHOLE MESS WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ANY LINGERING MVFR ERLY THIS AM WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO VFR AS A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS EWRD ACROSS THE AREA W/
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU TNGT...
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THEN
DROP BACK TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING TO OUR WEST BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STILL EXPECT CONDS TO DROP BLO GLWS ERLY THIS AFTN W/
SCA CONDS TO FOLLOW INTO LATE TNGT...
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MID WEEK AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS, LEADING
TO LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEAS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MARCH 2014 WILL END AS THE COLDEST ON RECORD AT
CARIBOU AND THE 3RD SNOWIEST. BANGOR IS CURRENTLY TIED WITH 1939
FOR THE COLDEST ON RECORD. A COMPLETE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH
2014 WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ032.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
Evening adjustments to the going forecast focused on winds as
convection along the advancing front remains well behaved. Winds
behind the front have turned to the west and west northwest but have
maintained there overall speed and gustiness. True cold air behind
the front is lagging well back across Nebraska at this time, so do
not expect the boundary layer to decouple anytime soon as the
pressure gradient will remain rather tight well into the evening. This
will result in near advisory to advisory level winds persisting after
sunset. Winds should begin to relax around 9 to 10 PM this evening as
the tight gradient shifts east behind the surface low moving through
Minnesota.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A pretty potent surface low resides just north of the forecast area
in southern Minnesota, however the pressure gradient associated with
that low remains strong over the forecast area, producing strong
southwest winds. Good mixing through the day and a dry southwesterly
component has caused RH values to drop to around 30 percent, with
some very localized areas dropping to the lower 20 percent range,
especially in far western Missouri. Surface observations indicate
that a cold front currently sits across far NW Missouri. This cold
front will continue to push S/SE through the area over the next
several hours, causing winds to switch from the southwest to the
west/northwest overnight. While the initial winds behind the front
will be somewhat gusty, expect a general decline in winds through
the overnight hours. HRRR has been somewhat consistent in producing
some signals for isolated to scattered convection along the cold
front in the 23z to 03z time frame across C Missouri, but given the
weak signal and forecast soundings showing a struggle to get
saturation, will only go out with low end chance PoPs for C Missouri
in the evening time frame. Should a thunderstorm get going along the
front the dry low levels of the atmosphere bring about a sort of
inverted-V sounding. While the overall potential is very low, there
could be an outside chance at a damaging wind gust or two if any
storm gets healthy along the front. Once the cold front clears the
area expect the chances for precipitation to trend toward no chance.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
On Tuesday evening, a deepening trough across the western CONUS and
southerly low-level flow off the Gulf will allow for wetter weather
through the remainder of the work week. A slow-moving warm front
will lift into the area and stall somewhere around the vicinity of
I-70, resulting in several rounds of thunderstorms, some possibly
strong to severe, for Tuesday night through Thursday.
A few isolated thunderstorms should begin to develop on Tuesday
evening as the low-level jet begins to increase and the frontal
boundary begins to edge into the region. The most widespread
convection is expected after 06z, and should be elevated in nature.
Hail is possible with any robust elevated storms that develop, but
widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
The main challenge for severe potential Wednesday will be the
presence and influence of morning convection across the region.
Without any real feature to sweep out nighttime convection, rain
showers and cloud cover may prevent strong instability from
developing. Shear profiles, particularly along the warm front, will
be very supportive of severe weather, and any storms that develop
will have the potential to be severe. Right now the area near the
warm front looks like it could remain very capped, but any clearing
will likely result in explosive storm development, especially along
and south of I-70.
Model differences increase on Thursday night into Friday with the
position of the surface low and associated front, which will
strongly impact severe weather chances. For now, have trended the
higher PoPs towards the southeastern corner of the CWA, but will
need to adjust as models come better into focus. Morning convection
could again impact instability, but with the strong front sweeping
through, storms are likely along and ahead of the boundary during
the afternoon and early evening hours.
Slightly cooler conditions and quieter weather is expected for the
weekend and into early next week. A few showers are possible for
Sunday night into Monday, but significant precipitation is not
expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
Gusty west-northwesterly winds will cont through about 09Z-10Z before
high pressure begins building into the area and allows them to
subside to around 10kts. Winds during the afternoon will be light and
variable as winds gradually shift from the northwest to the east as
the surface ridge of high pressure moves through the area. Winds will
then pick back up out of the east during the evening between 5-10kts.
VFR conds are expected through the TAF period with scattered to bkn
mid level clouds expected through the afternoon. Tomorrow evening
stratus will begin to stream northward into the area and an ovc deck
btn 4-6kft will move into the terminals. There is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms to affect MKC and MCI at the very end of
the TAF period but conds look to hold off until right around 06Z
tomorrow.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cutter
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1121 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 918 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Cold front as of 0200 UTC was just entering the northwestern
portion of the CWFA. Narrow plume of sfc-based instability has
helped yield some scattered thunderstorms over portions of north-
central and northeastern Missouri this evening. Believe with loss
of daytime heating/nocturnal stabilization these storms should
weaken with time which is supported by latest HRRR guidance. Front
should progress from west to east across the bi-state area with a
slight chance of rain showers.
Gosselin
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Initial round of showers and few thunderstorms ahead of next weather
system to continue tracking to the northeast late this afternoon and
diminish. Then as frontal boundary slides through will see another
area if showers and isolated thunderstorms develop and slide east
through region. Coverage will be rather scattered so kept just low
chance/slight chance pops for this evening, drying out after
midnight. Gusty south winds to diminish and veer to the west behind
the frontal boundary. Skies to scatter out towards daybreak with
lows in the low 30s far north to the upper 40s far southeast.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Weak high pressure will be centered through the area on Tuesday
morning in the wake of the cold front. The high pressure will weaken
as surface winds veer to more easterly in the afternoon in response
to falling pressure to the west. Meanwhile the front will become
quasi-stationary in the afternoon in response to the development
of wsw flow aloft and will extend along a line from around central
OK near the MO/AR border into the lower OH Valley. The latest model
guidance continues to suggest that showers and maybe thunderstorms
will develop on Tuesday afternoon in the cool sector across
southern/central MO in response to low level moisture convergence,
transport and thetae advection via a strengthening southerly LLJ.
Given the model trends I now have raised pops into the chance
range and they made need to be increased further in future
forecasts once we get a better handle on the location.
The overall scenario from Tuesday Night into Thursday Night has
changed very little and we are expecting a very active period with
a multi-day period featuring episodes of heavy rain and strong-
severe thunderstorms.
Tuesday night marks the beginning with widespread cool sector showers
and thunderstorms across the northern half of the CWA, north of
the slowly retreating west-east front. The development and
coverage should really ramp up in the evening in response to
strong forcing/moisture convergence/thetae advection via a veering
south-southwesterly LLJ and as several weak preturbations track
across the region within the wsw flow aloft. A broad zone of
forcing along the terminus of the LLJ suggests indicates there
will be a rather elongated MCS from eastern KS across MO into
western IL with potentially regenerative convection on the western
flank. The east-west front is still forecast to slowly lift
northward during the day on Wednesday with a position just north
of the I-70 corridor by early evening. It still appears that the
area to the north of the front will be quite convectively active
through midday Wednesday with perstent low level forcing via the
swly LLJ. To the south of the front the warm sector will continue
to expand and become rather unstable during the afternoon due to
the combination of moistening/heating and steep mid level lapse
rates. It appears that the CAP will gradually weaken during the
late afternoon which should allow for scattered surface based
development. Coverage of thunderstorms both north of the front in
the cool air and across the warm sector should ramp up on
Wednesday evening as a short wave in the wsw flow aloft provides
forcing and the associated surface wave moves along the front, in
addition to the swly LLJ. There will be a threat of large hail with
storms in the cool air and all severe weather threats are possible
within the warm sector where wswly deep layer shear vectors are
favorable for organized severe storms including supercells.
Persistent convection could also yield a heavy rain threat.
I am becoming increasingly concerned about the period from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night with the potential for significant
severe weather. The models are gradually becoming more clustered
with respect to previous differences in the main surface low
position and attendant warm front. A vigorous upper trof will
eject from the Rockies in the southern/central Plains on Thursday
afternoon and into the Mid MS Valley on Thursday night. A mean
solution of the deterministic models and ensembles would have the
main surface low deepening as it tracks from north central OK to
west central MO by 00Z and then into NW IL by 12z Friday. This
solution would have a rather extensive warm sector to the south of
the lifting warm front and ahead of the encroaching cold front.
Conditions appear quite favorable within the warm sector for
discrete supercells during the late afternoon/evening with very
unstable air/SBCAPE above 2000 J/KG and deep layer shear vectors
of 40-60 kts aligned perpendicular to the forcing/boundary. As the
front and upper trof translate eastward on Thursday night the
forcing and shear vector orientation suggests upscale growth into
a severe QLCS.
We will begin highlighting severe weather and heavy rain potential
in our HWO and graphical products.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
Cold front extending from a surface low over srn MN south through
UIN and COU will move southeastward through the St. Louis metro
area around 06z Tuesday. It appears on radar that the showers/storms
along this front have dissipated. A narrow band of high based
cumulus clouds along the front were also dissipating. The low
level clouds across IA south of the surface low should remain
north of UIN late tonight. The southwesterly winds at COU and the
St. Louis metro area will veer around to a wly direction after
fropa like they recently did in UIN. These wly winds will become
relatively light Tuesday afternoon with weak surface ridging over
the area. Mid- high level clouds will increase Tuesday afternoon
with low- mid level warm air advection and an approaching warm
front from the south. Could not rule out scattered showers and
storms in COU area late Tuesday afternoon, but the better chance
of rain should occur Tuesday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Showers and a few storms along the front have
all dissipated this evening. There still may be patchy vfr, low-
mid level clouds until around 08z Tuesday in the STL area. The swly
surface winds will veer around to a wly direction late tonight
after fropa. The surface wind will be fairly light and variable
Tuesday afternoon, then become ely Tuesday evening with an
approaching warm front moving nwd through srn MO. Mid-high level
clouds will be on the increase Tuesday afternoon with the cloud
ceiling lowering Tuesday evening and showers/thunderstorms moving
into the area.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
122 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
BASED UPON WEBCAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH 06 UTC...HAVE ALLOWED THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO EXPIRE ON
TIME AS VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE. ACROSS THE FRESH
SNOWPACK OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE WINDS HAVE OR ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT...LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 5 TO 10
BELOW RANGE GIVEN THE OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 06 UTC. WIND CHILLS
TO 20 BELOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
UPDATED TO REMOVE ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES FROM THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING. AREA RADARS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
SNOW NOW RESIDES FROM FOSTER THROUGH STUTSMAN...LAMOURE AND DICKEY
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THOSE COUNTIES IN THE WARNING THROUGH 06Z.
EXCEPT FOR THE HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
UPDATED TO ALLOW THE NEXT PIECE OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO EXPIRE
ON TIME AT 00Z. THE REMAINING PART OF THE WARNING PRIMARILY COVERS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND REPORTS STILL SUGGEST BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THAT AREA. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...SO
WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS INVOLVED TRENDS AND IMPACTS OF ONGOING
BLIZZARD. INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN BISMARCK AND FARGO WAS JUST CLOSED
DUE TO NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WITH WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION VISIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS BAND OF SNOWFALL COINCIDENT WITH DEFORMATION
ZONE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST ND. SEVERAL LIGHTING STRIKES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AREA. MANY AREAS LIKELY SEEING 1
TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES UNDER THE HEAVIER EMBEDDED SNOW
BANDS. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED GRADUALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH...ALLOWING SOME COUNTIES TO BE REMOVED FROM THE WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE LOW
CENTER...CURRENTLY OVER SW MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS PRECIP ENTIRELY OUT OF OUR
SOUTHEAST AREA BY 06Z.
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND CHILLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD BE IN
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO TONIGHT WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN
THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE ONGOING WINTER STORM. COUPLED WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD FOR EARLY APRIL...LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANYWHERE FROM ZERO TO THE MID TEENS ABOVE.
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MAINLY
SNOW SPREADING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS THUS FAR NOT IN AGREEMENT...HOWEVER A BLEND
OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF BRINGS A SHOT OF 1-3 INCHES SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. MODELS HINT AT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR IN BLOWING SNOW AT KJMS BY
07-08 UTC. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE 06 UTC TAF CYCLE. PATCHY FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE KDIK TAF FOR NOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...ACOOP/NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1248 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014/
UPDATE...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH. LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS
WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL UPDATE
TO RAISE POPS...OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014/
SOME CLOUDY SKIES ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION FIELD TO
DECREASE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE LOW PUSHES WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-SOUTH. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT IS IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND BOOT HEEL MISSOURI. HAVE LOWERED POPS JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE FOR TONIGHT.
A WEAK HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE MID-SOUTH DRY FOR
TUESDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION AND WE
CONTINUE TO STAY WARM...HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE UPPER LOW
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH EXACT POSITIONS...HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN THE MID-SOUTH. MOST THINGS FAVOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER...LOTS OF MOISTURE--ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
COMPARED CLIMATOLOGY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A GOOD
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
LOTS OF INSTABILITY. THE ONE NEGATIVE IS THE LACK OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVENTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND ON FRIDAY.
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY. TLSJR
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
SHRA WAS DISSIPATING ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR FSM...THROUGH
NORTHWEST AR. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY SETTLE INTO THE JBR VCNTY
BY 12Z...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH 13Z OR SO AT
MEM...BUT LIKELIHOOD TOO LOW TO WARRANT TEMPO AT THIS TIME. LITTLE
CHANGE FOR THE OUTBOUND PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO WINDS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
410 AM PDT Tue Apr 1 2014
.Synopsis...
A cold Pacific storm will bring more precipitation to Interior
NorCal into Wednesday with snow levels into the upper foothill
elevations. There is a threat for more thunderstorms across the
region today. A brief period of drier weather is expected later
Wednesday into later Thursday before another weaker weather system
moves into NorCal late in the week.
&&
.Discussion...
Cold mid/upper low spinning off the NW coast of CA (N of 40N/130W)
continues to send waves of showers inland across NorCal early this
morning following the passage of the initial frontal band late
Monday afternoon. One line of showers extending from near Chico
southward to off the coast near Monterey is presently moving east
across the region.
It looks like it`s shaping up to be another active weather day
across the interior of NorCal with showers, thunderstorms and more
low-elevation snowfall. WV imagery shows another impulse already
lined up approaching the coast to the north of the Bay Area and
the HRRR indicates more showers associated with this likely
spreading inland across the Sac Valley after sunrise.
Appears a stronger negative-tilt short-wave ahead of the upper low
is timed to approach the coast around 00Z Wed, and if there`s
going to be any severe weather today it will likely occur late
in the day ahead of this feature. Forecast soundings in the Sac
Valley this afternoon indicate CAPE of 500-1000 J/KG and potential
for more rotating storms. Any breaks in cloud cover will add to
the instability, but surface temperatures in the lower to mid 50s
will be all that`s needed to initiate convection given the very
cold temperatures aloft (< -30C at 500 mbs). Primary threat will
probably be copious small hail, though a brief tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. More refinement to the severe weather threat
will be made later this morning.
Main upper low forecast to swing through overnight tonight and
appears the heaviest precip will be along the coast extending into
the Central Valley where the strongest deformation sets up. Short-
wave ridging returns Wednesday as the upper low continues to drop
SEWD, so showers expected to taper off from the north with dry
weather through the day on Thursday. Next weaker system moves
into NorCal later Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Upper ridging forecast to begin building over the west coast this
weekend. Shortwave trough dropping over this ridge may bring a few
lingering showers to the northern mountains and Sierra Cascade
range early Saturday but conditions should be clearing most areas
thereafter. GFS dries out CWA by Saturday afternoon while flatter
ridge scenario of ECMWF would keep a few light showers going over
Shasta county. Warming airmass under the ridge on Saturday will
bring daytime highs up into the lower 70s for the central valley
or a few degrees above normal. By Sunday...all models amplify west
coast ridge enough to preclude any precipitation threat forecast
area wide. Clearing skies and warmer airmass will bring daytime
highs Sunday to anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
High amplitude ridge over the west coast will dominate the weather
pattern through the remainder of the extended period. Models in
good agreement in keeping the early to middle of next week dry
with daytime highs around 10 degrees above normal. Latest
extended models hint at return of wetter pattern towards the end
of next week.
&&
.Aviation...
MVFR conditions for the Valley with occasional IFR in heavier
showers as upper level low pressure system drops southeastward
across the area. Over mountains mainly IFR occasional LIFR in snow
showers. Snow levels between 2000 and 3000 feet msl. Southerly
winds 10 to 20 knots through about 02z Wednesday with lighter
winds after 02z.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory until 11 am pdt this morning west slope
northern sierra nevada...western plumas county/lassen park.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
258 AM PDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING
FOR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND PROVIDE FOR A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BAND HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FA. AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX HAS SLID SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FOOTHILLS IN TULARE COUNTY
AND IS FALLING APART ATTM. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE LITTLE CELL WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD CORE IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
MONTEREY BAY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA THIS MORNING
WITH A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
LINE. THE HRRR/HIGH RES MODEL/ IS PUSHING THE LINE INTO THE SIERRA
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THROUGH 5 AM...SO HAVE LEFT THE
WSW UP FOR THE SIERRA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND BE PUSHING THROUGH THERE THROUGH 8 AM AND THE
CURRENT WSW FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS LOOKS GOOD AS WELL.
SO WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TODAY...WELL IT DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL
YOU BELIEVE. THE NAM12 IS NOT GIVING US MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY ACCORDING TO BUFKIT. ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS THROUGH 18Z. THE HRRR 3KM REFLECTIVITY PROG IS BRINGING
THE RAIN BAND THROUGH HERE THROUGH 18Z WITH A STRONGER ONE ON ITS
HEELS MOVING INTO MERCED COUNTY AROUND MIDDAY AND RAPIDLY MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AM
CONCERNED ABOUT THIS. I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE AND WE HAVE HAD
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE VALLEY. I AM NOT REAL IMPRESSED
WITH THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL.
HOWEVER WITH TEMPS AT H500 -25 TO -30 IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET
THINGS GOING WITH HAILERS AND SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON. SO I AM LEANING WITH THE WETTER HRRR.
KERN DESERT WINDS HAVE DIED OUT AND WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADV TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM. STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE PRECIP BAND THIS
AM AND ARE COVERED IN WSW.
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER TO CROSS THE
REGION WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH STRONG LIFT AND
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER. WE WILL SEE
PRECIP RETURN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER CROSSES THE REGION.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AS LOW AS 2500 FEET INTO THE FOOTHILLS. WILL
LOOK AT FEW MORE THINGS BEFORE PULLING THE TRIGGER ON ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES OR NOT.
GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING THE LOW CENTER TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST. WEAK RIDGING ON WED WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT AND KEEP IT
CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AND PROVIDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NICE WEEKEND IN STORE WITH QUIET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND PRECIPITATION.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 04-01 90:1966 49:1982 56:1939 32:1975
KFAT 04-02 87:1985 56:1907 57:2011 34:1982
KFAT 04-03 91:2000 52:1958 56:1933 33:1964
KBFL 04-01 88:2011 54:1998 62:1900 32:1917
KBFL 04-02 90:1985 57:1981 60:2002 35:1999
KBFL 04-03 90:1961 53:1965 62:1966 35:1955
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
CAZ096-097.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING CAZ095.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING CAZ098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...DS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
930 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2014
.Hydrology...
The Apalachicola at Blountstown is currently at 16.2 feet and will
remain in minor flood stage until Wednesday night. The Choctawhatchee
River at Caryville is currently at 12.4 feet and will remain in
minor flood stage until Wednesday afternoon. The Choctawhatchee at
Bruce is forecast to reach minor flood stage Wednesday evening.
Elsewhere...several other rivers in the CWA remain in action stage.
The next chance for rain is on Friday.
&&
.Prev Discussion [750 AM EDT]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Regional radar mosaics show some weakening convection, mainly in
the form of showers, moving across southern AL early this morning.
Earlier CAM and global models did not pick up on this, but the
latest (06z run) local WRF and HRRR both shower a few showers
making it into our far western zones in Southeast AL and the FL
Panhandle. Updated the forecast to show slight chance PoPs in
these areas. locally dense fog around mainly Bay County should
lift with the approach of these showers. Further east, the
forecast looks pretty much on track with fair skies expected to
continue. Temps will warm quickly today and peak in the lower 80s
away from the coast. a cooling sea breeze will keep afternoon
temps in the lower 70s at the beaches.
.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep the weather dry and
warm through the middle of the week. Expect to see high
temperatures in the 80s for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. As
light onshore flow gradually increases low-level moisture, low
temperatures will continue to moderate with upper 40 to lower 50
for Wednesday morning, and mid 50s by Thursday morning.
.Long Term [Thursday night Through Tuesday]...
The deep layer ridge pattern will hold through Thursday before the
upper ridge is shunted eastward by a developing trough in the Great
Plains. This trough will lift northeast to the Great Lakes as
another trough develops into the Southern Plains over the weekend.
The associated cold front will make it into AL on Friday when we
reintroduce PoPs to the forecast. The front will then stall roughly
half way across the forecast area on Saturday. There are a lot of
model discrepancies as to what happens after that, but the pattern
looks to remain unsettled with large scale troughing in place.
Temperatures will remain above normal through Saturday with
increased cloud cover and scattered convection keep temps closer
to seasonal levels on Sunday.
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday] VLIFR conditions in fog have settled in at
ECP this morning, but conditions should improve to VFR by 14z or
so. Look for a sea breeze to kick in this afternoon at area
terminals. MVFR visibility is forecast at TLH, ECP and DHN for
later tonight during the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise and elsewhere,
VFR will prevail.
.Marine...
High pressure over the waters this morning will gradually slide
eastward over the next several days. Light winds will increase
slightly by Thursday as the gradient tightens. However, conditions
are forecast to remain below headline levels through the end of
the week.
.Fire Weather...
Although lowest relative humidities will drop into the low to mid
20s this afternoon...winds and and fuel moisture levels will
preclude any red flag conditions. The airmass will moisten up a
little on Wednesday then more rapidly into the upcoming weekend.
Thus...red flag conditions are not expected through this time.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 82 46 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 75 58 76 61 75 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 81 52 82 58 83 / 20 0 0 0 0
Albany 82 49 84 55 84 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 83 48 85 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 82 49 84 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 74 53 75 58 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...WOOL/BLOCK
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
750 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Regional radar mosaics show some weakening convection, mainly in
the form of showers, moving across southern AL early this morning.
Earlier CAM and global models did not pick up on this, but the
latest (06z run) local WRF and HRRR both shower a few showers
making it into our far western zones in Southeast AL and the FL
Panhandle. Updated the forecast to show slight chance PoPs in
these areas. locally dense fog around mainly Bay County should
lift with the approach of these showers. Further east, the
forecast looks pretty much on track with fair skies expected to
continue. Temps will warm quickly today and peak in the lower 80s
away from the coast. a cooling sea breeze will keep afternoon
temps in the lower 70s at the beaches.
&&
.Prev Discussion [719 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep the weather dry and
warm through the middle of the week. Expect to see high
temperatures in the 80s for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. As
light onshore flow gradually increases low-level moisture, low
temperatures will continue to moderate with upper 40 to lower 50
for Wednesday morning, and mid 50s by Thursday morning.
.Long Term [Thursday night Through Tuesday]...
The deep layer ridge pattern will hold through Thursday before the
upper ridge is shunted eastward by a developing trough in the Great
Plains. This trough will lift northeast to the Great Lakes as
another trough develops into the Southern Plains over the weekend.
The associated cold front will make it into AL on Friday when we
reintroduce PoPs to the forecast. The front will then stall roughly
half way across the forecast area on Saturday. There are a lot of
model discrepancies as to what happens after that, but the pattern
looks to remain unsettled with large scale troughing in place.
Temperatures will remain above normal through Saturday with
increased cloud cover and scattered convection keep temps closer
to seasonal levels on Sunday.
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday] VLIFR conditions in fog have settled in at
ECP this morning, but conditions should improve to VFR by 14z or
so. Look for a sea breeze to kick in this afternoon at area
terminals. MVFR visibility is forecast at TLH, ECP and DHN for
later tonight during the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise and elsewhere,
VFR will prevail.
.Marine...
High pressure over the waters this morning will gradually slide
eastward over the next several days. Light winds will increase
slightly by Thursday as the gradient tightens. However, conditions
are forecast to remain below headline levels through the end of
the week.
.Fire Weather...
Although lowest relative humidities will drop into the low to mid
20s this afternoon...winds and and fuel moisture levels will
preclude any red flag conditions. The airmass will moisten up a
little on Wednesday then more rapidly into the upcoming weekend.
Thus...red flag conditions are not expected through this time.
.Hydrology...
The Apalachicola at Blountstown has reached minor flood stage and
will continue to rise to near 17.6 feet this morning. Minor
flooding has also just begun along the Choctawhatchee River at
Caryville and is also forecast to occur at Bruce on Thursday.
Elsewhere, several other rivers in the CWA remain in action stage.
The next chance for rain is on Friday.
For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 82 46 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 75 58 76 61 75 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 81 52 82 58 83 / 20 0 0 0 0
Albany 82 49 84 55 84 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 83 48 85 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 82 49 84 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 74 53 75 58 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...WOOL/BLOCK
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...BLOCK/LAMERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1000 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY
ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10AM UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR BANGOR AND VICINITY WHERE UPPER 40S
ARE NOW EXPECTED. THE DRY AIR ALSO LENDS ITSELF TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT AND WILL GO WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS TONIGHT IN NORTHERN ZONES.
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TOMORROW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THREAT
OF A DEFORMATION BAND WRAPPING THROUGH THE OMEGA BLOCK INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY
AND EASTERN AROOSTOOK DURING WEDNESDAY. WILL UPDATE SKY AND POPS ONCE 12Z
GUIDANCE ILLUMINATES THE SITUATION MORE. THE KEY WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGELINE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STUBBORN LOW PRES CONTS TO SPIN WELL SE OF THE AREA (S OF ERN NS
ATTM) W/ A PERSISTENT BAND OF LGT SNOW CONTG TO XTND BACK SWWRD
INTO OUR SERN AREAS - MAINLY NRN/CENTRAL WASH COUNTY ATTM. CALL TO
TOPSFIELD DOT RPTD LGT SNOW W/ SOME BLSN W/ ABT 6 INCHES IN
VANCEBORO... WILL CONT THE CURRENT WNTR WX ADV FOR ZN 32 AND THE
WNTR STORM WRNG FOR ZN 17. HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND FINALLY
DISSIPATING AND MOVG E OF THE AREAS BY ERLY AM SO WILL CONT THE
ADV/WRNG TIL 10Z.
OTHERWISE...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ SEASONAL TEMPS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA W/ CLRG SKIES ACROSS THE N AND W. THIS TREND WILL CONT TO
SPREAD EWRD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AM AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY AND CLR NGT TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED NR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE TNGT
W/ LOWS ABT 5 DEGREES BLO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
MOISTURE DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN OR SNOW ACCUMULATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
RUNNING FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY,
BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE MAINE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN LIFT INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS LEADS TO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIP TYPE
BECAUSE IT HINGES ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY LOW CAN MAKE IT BEFORE THE SECONDARY TAKES OVER. AT THIS
TIME, MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER STARTING OUT AS SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH ON SATURDAY TO ALLOW A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WRAP BACK SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
LOW. HOWEVER, ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS
WARM AIR TRIES TO SLIDE BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WHOLE MESS WILL MOVE OUT BY MONDAY. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ANY LINGERING MVFR ERLY THIS AM WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO VFR AS A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS EWRD ACROSS THE AREA W/
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU TNGT...
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THEN
DROP BACK TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING TO OUR WEST BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STILL EXPECT CONDS TO DROP BLO GLWS ERLY THIS AFTN W/
SCA CONDS TO FOLLOW INTO LATE TNGT...
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR MID WEEK AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS, LEADING
TO LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET SEAS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MARCH 2014 WILL END AS THE COLDEST ON RECORD AT
CARIBOU AND THE 3RD SNOWIEST. BANGOR IS CURRENTLY TIED WITH 1939
FOR THE COLDEST ON RECORD. A COMPLETE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH
2014 WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
954 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
10AM UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN AREAS. MODELS VARIED CONSIDERABLY ON FORECAST HIGHS TODAY
SO THIS ADDED A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST:
MAV MET ECS
PORTLAND 41 40 51
CONCORD 43 45 51
LEBANON 45 43 54
THE ISSUE IN QUESTION IS THE DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR
LINGERING BEHIND THE DEPARTED LOW. ALREADY THIS MORNING THE
TEMPERATURE HAS RISEN TO 40 IN PORTLAND AS IT DID NOT GET THAT
COLD OVERNIGHT. MORNING GYX SOUNDING SHOWS THE COLD LAYER WITH AN
INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE. WITH PLENTY OF SUN... IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT MIXING TO 900 MB COULD OCCUR RESULTING IN A HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN PORTLAND. FURTHER TO THE
WEST... WARMER AIR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO MOVE IN
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ARE NOW
EXPECTED IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO THE WEST OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES. COLDEST AREAS WILL BE AROUND THE MIDCOAST
WHERE COLD AIR HANGS ON THE LONGEST AND MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
AROUND 40 DEGREES TODAY.
645AM UPDATE...
***MARCH ENDED UP BEING THE FOURTH COLDEST MARCH ON RECORD FOR
PORTLAND. RECORDS BEGIN IN 1941. "RELATIVELY" MILD LAST FEW DAYS
OF THE MONTH PUT THE FOREST CITY OUT OF CONTENTION FOR THE
COLDEST MARCH EVER. DESPITE THIS...ONLY 3.7 INCHES OF SNOW FELL
THE WHOLE MONTH.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING
ITS WHEELS TO OUR EAST. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE PERSISTENT
NEAR THE COAST TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARDS THE
MIDCOAST REGION. LATEST HRRR RUN IS HANDLING THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE VERY WELL...AND SLOWLY MOVES IT EASTWARD DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS JUST TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW TO EXIT THE MIDCOAST REGION...WITH A SECOND AREA OF
CLOUDINESS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO COUNTERACT H8 TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S
IN MOST AREAS. HAVE NUDGED FORECAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE DARTING IN AND OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME AND IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. IT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH AT NIGHT
WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO START THE PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR
BOTTLED UP WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WE`LL SEE INCREASING AMPLITUDE IN THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL RETURN OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...TO BE EVENTUALLY FOLLOWED
BY A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENCES
EMERGE AFTER MONDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY
TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. EAST COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR.
LONG TERM...
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS ARE NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM...
SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... CANNON
LONG TERM... SCHWIBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
642 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
***MARCH ENDED UP BEING THE FOURTH COLDEST MARCH ON RECORD FOR
PORTLAND. RECORDS BEGIN IN 1941. "RELATIVELY" MILD LAST FEW DAYS
OF THE MONTH PUT THE FOREST CITY OUT OF CONTENTION FOR THE
COLDEST MARCH EVER. DESPITE THIS...ONLY 3.7 INCHES OF SNOW FELL
THE WHOLE MONTH.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING
ITS WHEELS TO OUR EAST. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE PERSISTENT
NEAR THE COAST TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARDS THE
MIDCOAST REGION. LATEST HRRR RUN IS HANDLING THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE VERY WELL...AND SLOWLY MOVES IT EASTWARD DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO DEW POINT AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREV DISC...
DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS JUST TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE MIDCOAST REGION...WITH A SECOND AREA OF
CLOUDINESS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO COUNTERACT H8 TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S
IN MOST AREAS. HAVE NUDGED FORECAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FCST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE DARTING IN AND OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME AND IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW FOR THE NRN MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. IT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH AT NIGHT
WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO START THE PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR
BOTTLED UP WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WE`LL SEE INCREASING AMPLITUDE IN THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL RETURN OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...TO BE EVENTUALLY FOLLOWED
BY A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENCES
EMERGE AFTER MONDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY
TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. EAST COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR.
LONG TERM...
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LCL IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS ARE NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM...
SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
633 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING
ITS WHEELS TO OUR EAST. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE PERSISTENT
NEAR THE COAST TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD EAST TOWARDS THE
MIDCOAST REGION. LATEST HRRR RUN IS HANDLING THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE VERY WELL...AND SLOWLY MOVES IT EASTWARD DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO DEW POINT AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
PREV DISC...
DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS JUST TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE MIDCOAST REGION...WITH A SECOND AREA OF
CLOUDINESS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO COUNTERACT H8 TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING TO ALLOW FOR READINGS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S
IN MOST AREAS. HAVE NUDGED FORECAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FCST GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE DARTING IN AND OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME AND IS RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW FOR THE NRN MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. IT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS NORTH TO 20S SOUTH AT NIGHT
WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 40 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO START THE PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR
BOTTLED UP WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WE`LL SEE INCREASING AMPLITUDE IN THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL RETURN OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...TO BE EVENTUALLY FOLLOWED
BY A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENCES
EMERGE AFTER MONDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY
TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. EAST COASTAL
AREAS WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR.
LONG TERM...
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LCL IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS ARE NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM...
SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
627 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY
ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0620L: SOME LINGERING SNOW ACROSS XTRM SERN SECTIONS
(MAINLY CENTRAL WASH COUNTY - ZN17) ATTM AND EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH SHORTLY. WITH THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS PRETTY MUCH OVR...HAVE
ALLOWED THE WNTR WX ADV FOR NRN WASH COUNTY - ZN32 AND THE WNTR
STORM WRNG FOR CENTRAL WASH COUNTY - ZN17 TO EXPIRE AT 0600L.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS AND HRLY TEMPS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT AND
EXPECTED CONDS THRU THE ERLY AM HRS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE A
QUIET DAY W/ MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS AS A DRY
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. ATTM SKIES
HAVE CLRD ACROSS NRN AND WRN AREAS AND THIS SHOULD WORK INTO E
CENTRAL AND SERN AREAS NXT FEW HRS...
ORIG DISC: STUBBORN LOW PRES CONTS TO SPIN WELL SE OF THE AREA (S
OF ERN NS ATTM) W/ A PERSISTENT BAND OF LGT SNOW CONTG TO XTND
BACK SWWRD INTO OUR SERN AREAS - MAINLY NRN/CENTRAL WASH COUNTY
ATTM. CALL TO TOPSFIELD DOT RPTD LGT SNOW W/ SOME BLSN W/ ABT 6
INCHES IN VANCEBORO... WILL CONT THE CURRENT WNTR WX ADV FOR ZN 32
AND THE WNTR STORM WRNG FOR ZN 17. HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND FINALLY
DISSIPATING AND MOVG E OF THE AREAS BY ERLY AM SO WILL CONT THE
ADV/WRNG TIL 10Z.
OTHERWISE...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ SEASONAL TEMPS AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA W/ CLRG SKIES ACROSS THE N AND W. THIS TREND WILL CONT TO
SPREAD EWRD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AM AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY AND CLR NGT TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED NR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE TNGT
W/ LOWS ABT 5 DEGREES BLO SEASONAL NORMS.&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ANY LINGERING MVFR ERLY THIS AM WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO VFR AS A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS EWRD ACROSS THE AREA W/
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU TNGT...
SHORT TERM:
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STILL EXPECT CONDS TO DROP BLO GLWS ERLY THIS AFTN W/
SCA CONDS TO FOLLOW INTO LATE TNGT...
SHORT TERM:
&&
.CLIMATE...
MARCH 2014 WILL END AS THE COLDEST ON RECORD AT
CARIBOU AND THE 3RD SNOWIEST. BANGOR IS CURRENTLY TIED WITH 1939
FOR THE COLDEST ON RECORD. A COMPLETE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH
2014 WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ032.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS
CLIMATE...
UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
STRONG SURFACE LOW NORTH OF ASHLAND WI...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
TO THE NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST...OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...FOR A NEARLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS RATHER AMAZING SYSTEM PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A FEW TORNADOES OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAST
EVENING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE EAST. SPRING IN MINNESOTA...GOTTA LOVE
IT. AS OF 3 AM...SNOW WAS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME MIXED PRECIP EXTENDING ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND DOWN INTO THE MOOSE LAKE AREA WHERE THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH TO BE MELTING SNOW AT UPPER
LEVELS. MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS STILL ABOVE FREEZING AND ARE
GETTING SOME DRIZZLE BUT NOT TOO MUCH OTHERWISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
I EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO CONTINUE ALONG A NORTHEAST TRACK AS IT
MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...PUSHING THE WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EAST OUT OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...GRADUALLY ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY
SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW BY ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ALL THIS...AS JUST A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING
PRECIP CAN HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE IMPACT ON AREA ROADS NOW THAT THEY
HAVE ALL BEEN WASHED OFF BY THE RAIN. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BRINGING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE REST OF THE AREA. THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
GETTING CONSISTENT SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS
OUT OF THAT AREA OVERNIGHT SO MAY HAVE TO MAKE SOME SNOWFALL
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ONCE REPORTS START ROLLING IN LATER THIS
MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
THE FORCING DRAWS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC RISE FOLLOWS ALONG BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW. COULD HAVE SOME VERY STRONG WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW GETS FAR ENOUGH
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...EXPECT TO
HAVE SOME BLOWING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. WITH ALL
THIS GOING ON...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WE HAVE OUT RIGHT NOW. WITH THE WIND THAT
IS EXPECTED...IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW WILL LINGER AFTER THE SNOW
ITSELF ENDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THEN EXPECT MAINLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BE MUCH QUIETER WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. TONIGHT CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. THEN...HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE 30S ON
WEDNESDAY AS A TESTAMENT TO THE STRONG SUNSHINE WE ARE GETTING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
OUR ACTIVE SPRING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME
PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY ON THE DRY
SIDE...BUT THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE LATE WEEK WINTER STORM. A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN A DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WILL START TO EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM SPREAD
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST THAN THE GFS. WITH
COORDINATION FROM OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS...AS WELL AS THE WINTER
WEATHER DESK AT THE WPC...WE HAVE RAMPED UP OUR ALLBLEND VALUES
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS POINT THE CONSENSUS OF THE
NON-NCEP SOLUTIONS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO MOVE IN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS WHERE EXACTLY
THE HEAVY SNOW AREA WILL BE. QPF IS POINTING TO A VERY HEAVY
SNOWFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS POSSIBLY REACHING A FOOT OR MORE IN A
PORTION OF THE CWA. MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW AT
THIS POINT...IN COORDINATION WITH WPC...IS IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND NW
WI. STILL COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE TWIN PORTS INTO
THE NORTH SHORE AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING AS IT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE MAJOR TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...AS THERE WILL
GENERALLY BE A MORE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WERE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH VSBYS AND CIGS AT KDLH INTO THE VLIFR CATEGORY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT SOME LOCAL
IFR TO VLIFR FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
TO MAINLY MVFR BY MIDDAY AND VFR AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 12 35 18 / 90 0 0 0
INL 26 2 34 12 / 80 0 0 0
BRD 30 9 38 23 / 50 0 0 10
HYR 36 12 40 22 / 80 10 10 10
ASX 31 13 35 18 / 80 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ026-
033>036.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ010-
011-018-025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ012-
020-021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ019-
037-038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ001.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SYNOPSIS...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
933 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WHITEWATER TO WINNET AREA AND IN THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY AND AROUND GLENDIVE MAY PERSIST THROUGH 17Z,
AT WHICH POINT HRRR GUIDANCE HAS RH DECLINING AND THE FOG BURNING-
OFF.
SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA LED TO SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
THIS MORNING...MUCH COLDER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH WHICH HAD
LIMITED SNOW ON THE GROUND. THIS PATTERN MAY REPEAT TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE SNOW IS FAIRLY DEEP IN SOME AREAS AND WILL NOT
LIKELY MELT DOWN TO THE GROUND TODAY.
WITH A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA
TODAY...MODELS HAVE ONLY THE FAINTEST HINT OF ANY PPT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A MODEST DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN BRING SOME SNOW TO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE
CWA...WITH A TOTAL OF AN INCH OR 2 OF NEW SNOW. MARTIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONGLY ZONAL FLOW IS SQUARELY IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
SANDWICHED BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS TODAY. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR CALM WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR
OUR CWA.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE WESTERN STATES
REGION. THE EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE ANOTHER PASS OF
SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BE LOCATED ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE STORM
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
FOR THAT AREA AND THE EC MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND GENEROUS
WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS PULL BACK FROM THAT ON COVERAGE AND
PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPERIENCED BY
THOSE IN THAT REGION...FELT IT WAS OK TO LEAN A BIT MORE ON THIS
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND START MENTIONING IT IN THE HWO.
BY THURSDAY MORNING...AN APPROACHING RIDGE FROM THE WEST CUTS OF
THE PRECIP AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM SOME MORE.
BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE
MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
OF STRONG UPPER RIDGE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.
PERIOD OPENS WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING WARMER AIR EAST ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONGEST
OF THESE WAVES DROPS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND THIS
IS THE MAIN PERIOD OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT OF THE FORECAST.
VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AT LESS THAN 15KTS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
635 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Look for MVFR to IFR ceilings to dominate West Central Texas, along
and south of a line from Sonora to Brownwood, through mid morning.
The latest satellite imagery indicate stratus has returned to the
northwest Hill Country and southern Heartland this morning. The
latest RUC indicates stratus will advance to near a Sonora to
Brownwood line, before mixing breaks this low-cloud deck. By mid
morning, expect gusty south surface winds and VFR conditions to
dominate West Central Texas. Overnight tonight, stratus will again
return to West Central Texas, and by this time tomorrow, plan for
MVFR to dominate.
Huber
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening
across some West Central Texas locations. A surface dryline will mix
east today to near a Haskell, to San Angelo, to Ozona line. Model
forecast soundings, along and east of this line, indicate CAPEs in
the 2000 to 2500 J/Kg range by 21Z this afternoon. Plus, the cap
doesn`t look like it will be as strong as models were indicating
this time yesterday. Thus, any thunderstorms which do develop may be
severe, mainly along and east of the dryline this afternoon and
evening, and especially north and east of a line from Sweetwater to
Brownwood, where low-level moisture convergence will be greatest
along and near the dryline. The primary threats will be large hail
and damaging winds.
Huber
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
PoPs are problematic for Wednesday through Thursday morning.
The main upper trough will move across the Great Basin and
into the Southwestern states on Wednesday, then track east
into the central/southern Rockies Wednesday night. The upper
trough will lift out to the northeast into the central Plains
with a closed low on Thursday. A sharpened dryline is expected to
mix east across roughly the western half of West Central Texas
Wednesday afternoon. Whether convergence along the dryline and
lift can be enough to break the cap looks uncertain. The model
moisture and PoP fields look anemic. A favorable factor, however,
would be if an embedded disturbance in the southwest flow aloft
can enter our area during peak heating, as the 00Z GFS shows.
Continuing with slight chance PoP for now across the area roughly
east of a Haskell to San Angelo to Ozona line. With the strong
instability and favorable vertical wind shear progged, any storms
which develop could become severe with large hail and damaging
winds the main threats. The dryline is expected to make a partial
retreat into our western and northwestern counties Wednesday
night, before being overtaken by a Pacific front early Thursday
morning. The Pacific front will surge east across our area
Thursday morning. With this and the approach of the main upper
trough, have low PoP for showers and thunderstorms across much of
our area Wednesday night, and across much of the eastern half
Thursday morning.
The other concern for Thursday is an enhanced fire weather threat,
addressed in the Fire Weather section below. As the aforementioned
upper system lifts out to our north on Thursday, the associated
dry slot will overspread West Central Texas during the afternoon.
With this setup, deep mixing will promote rather windy conditions
with an intrusion of very dry air from the west. Given the
westerly low-level flow and associated downsloping, going with
highs 2-3 degrees above MOS guidance on Thursday.
A secondary cold front from the north will push south across West
Central Texas Thursday night. Dry and cooler conditions will follow
on Friday. Temperatures look pleasant for Saturday as well, when
east winds will become southeast as surface high pressure ridge
axis shifts east into the Mississippi Valley.
The forecast becomes problematic again with rain chances for the
latter half of the weekend and first part of next week. The 00Z
GFS and ECMWF continue to show noteworthy differences. While both
models show an upper trough moving across the Southwestern states
and approaching Texas, the GFS has the trough axis shifting east
of our area on Sunday afternoon, then has our area in an amplified
northwest flow aloft. The ECMWF has energy digging down the back
side of the trough, with the setup favoring a better (and much
needed) rain chance for our area developing Monday and continuing
through Tuesday. Given this uncertainty at the end of the long-
term, however, have not added PoPs yet for early next week.
19
FIRE WEATHER...
Look for elevated fire weather conditions to develop again this
afternoon, as a surface dryline mixes east across West Central
Texas. Locations mainly west of a Haskell, to San Angelo, to Ozona
line will have the most elevated fire weather conditions. There,
afternoon minimum relative humidity will range from the upper teens
to around 20; plus, sustained winds at 20 feet above ground level
will be from the south around 15 mph.
On Wednesday, watch for elevated fire weather conditions to develop
again across more of West Central Texas, as a dryline mixes farther
east. Afternoon minimum relative humidity will drop into the 10 to
20 percent range, mainly along and west of a Haskell, to San Angelo,
to Ozona line. There, fire weather conditions will again be the
greatest. In addition, winds at 20 feet above ground level will
again be around 15 mph, along and west of this line.
On Thursday, critical fire weather conditions may develop across
much of West Central Texas, as afternoon minimum relative humidity
drops to a range from around 10 to 20 percent. Plus, an approaching
cold front will push a surface trough east across West Central
Texas. Behind this trough, sustained winds at 20 feet above ground
level may range from 20 to 30 mph for much of West Central Texas
north of the Interstate 10 corridor, mainly during the afternoon.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 89 67 90 59 85 / 20 20 20 20 10
San Angelo 92 68 91 59 85 / 10 10 20 20 10
Junction 89 67 87 63 86 / 10 10 20 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Huber/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.AVIATION...MESOLOW/DENVER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
DENVER. THE MESOSCYCLONE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AT KDEN. JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF KDEN...WINDS ARE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS. HRRR AND RUC SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MESOLOW WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND
DRIFTING TO THE EAST. BELIEVE THAT THE HRRR AND RUC ARE TOO SLOW TO
WEAKEN THE SURFACE LOW AND HAVE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AN HOUR TO
TWO EARLIER THAN THE MODELS. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN IN THE EVENING...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS
NORTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT THE TAF SITES. ON WEDNESDAY...
ANTICIPATE VFR AT THE TAF SITES WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE AFTER
00Z THURSDAY. --PGW-
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM MDT TUE APR 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...RADAR ECHOES BEGINNING TO FILL IN BETTER ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. JET MOVING OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME WITH WARM ADVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS ADVECTION HAS LIMITED THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO BE OCCURRING BY NOW...HAVE
DECREASED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GREAT BASIN SURFACE LOW AND THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE...AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS ARE INCREASING AS WELL. ALREADY
SEEING GUSTS TO 30 MPH...AND EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO COLORADO. DRY DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL COMBINE WITH THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS OVER AND EAST OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE TO INCREASE FIRE DANGER...A HIGHLIGHT IS BEING
HOISTED FOR THIS REASON...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY
ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES...HAVE INCREASED THE FORECAST BY A COUPLE
DEGREES WITH EXPECTED DOWNSLOPING LATER TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. THEN AS THE SURFACE
LOW ENTERS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS
THE JET MOVES NORTH AND DOWNSLOPING INCREASES. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE
THE JET NEARBY...DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS ESPECIALLY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL SINK SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO
ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW SOME LOW STRATUS...HAVE ADDED INCREASED SKY COVER TO THE
FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR EAST PLAINS.
LONG TERM...MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO INCOMING SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
UNTIL THEN...WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF MAINLY DRY WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...A
WEAK COLD FRONT ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL BE OOZING
SOUTHWARD...BUT COULD VERY WELL STALL OUT DURING DAYTIME HEATING
AND MIXING. IN ANY CASE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE
EASTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME STRATUS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE
FOG TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN BRING
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALL OF THE PLAINS BY LATER IN THE DAY
TOWARD WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT
ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING AS CORE OF UPPER JET SHIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. THIS IS WHEN MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
THE NAM SEEMS TO BE QUITE THE OUTLIER BY DRIVING A STRONGER LEAD
SHORT WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...RESULTING IN A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE AND THUS HAVE A
STRONGER WAVE FOR COLORADO. OVERALL...PREFERENCE ON THE NATIONAL
AND LOCAL LEVEL IS WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS FROM THESE MODELS INDICATE MODEST
UPSLOPE...MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES...AND GOOD VERTICAL MOTION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. CERTAINLY A SPRING-TIME
SCENARIO THAT DESERVES WATCHING SO CONTINUED YESTERDAYS TREND AND
WENT A LITTLE HEAVIER WITH REGARD TO POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COULD START OFF WITH SOME RAIN ON THE
PLAINS BUT EXPECT A CHANGEOVER IN THE LATE EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
COOL AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST
THREAT OF REACHING ANY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WOULD BE IN THE
FOOTHILLS BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO ISSUE A WATCH THIS FAR
OUT. SOME OF THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE DID SUGGEST HEAVIER TOTALS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME IT SHOULD CERTAINLY BE NOTED
THESE LEAD SHORT WAVES HAVE BUSTED SNOW FORECASTS IN THE PAST SO
THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE KEY IN THIS FORECAST SCENARIO.
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY SHOULD TURN MORE SHOWERY DURING THE DAY
AS SOME DRYING WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. PROBABLY NOT MUCH IF
ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE PLAINS AFTER NOON AS LONG AS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY...AND THEN
THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDS THIS WAVE WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING...DIGGING...AND EVENTUAL MOVEMENT ONCE IT
REACHES EASTERN COLORADO. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW
CHANCE OF POPS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE REALLY STARTING TO INCREASE SINCE
MIDNIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WILD CARD IS
BJC WHERE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY CYCLONE AROUND AND PRODUCE
NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT VRB AND LIGHT BEFORE THE
STRONGER WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY GO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST...BUT THEN SHOULD GO BACK TO
DRAINAGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY WILL TURN
THROUGH NORTH AND EAST THEN TO DRAINAGE. WILL KEEP THE MORE
WESTERLY PATTERN FOR NOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS HAS
DECREASED THIS MORNING...MOST PRECIP WILL STAY OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. CEILINGS/VIS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE BARELY UNDER CRITERIA
OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN ARE THE WINDS
TODAY WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35 TO 40 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH...AND
ARE ALREADY GUSTY THIS MORNING. WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
OVER THE LAST WEEK...WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR 11AM
UNTIL 8PM. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH EVERYWHERE ELSE TO KEEP
HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITERIA...BUT DOES STAND WATCHING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
247 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1111 AM CDT
MORNING UPDATE...
MOST GUIDANCE WAS UNDERDONE A BIT ON LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS AND CLOSED CELL STRATOCU
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES STILL ONLY
IN THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND UPPER 30S/LOW 40S TO
THE SOUTH AS OF THIS WRITING. 950-900 MB RH ON THE RAP MODEL...A
GOOD PROXY FOR CURRENT CLOUD HEIGHTS AND EXTENT...HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER AT THE MOMENT AND IT INDICATES A SLOWER
SCATTERING TREND THAN HAD BEEN FEATURED PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...NOW LOOKING LIKE BY MID AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CLOUDS HANGING ON LONGER AND SLIGHTLY COLDER THERMAL
PROFILES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. LEFT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
MAX T FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES THERE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY UP TO 30-40 MPH THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
RC
//PREV DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MINIMAL WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY...HOWEVER TONIGHT THE FOCUS WILL
BECOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EARLY THIS MORNING TEMPS REMAIN MILD ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IL/NORTHWEST IN...HOWEVER THAT IS ABOUT TO CHANGE AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ALREADY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA AND TEMPS
ARE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY
REACHES THE EASTERN CWFA ARND DAYBREAK...TEMPS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST CWFA.
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN A STRATUS LAYER THUR
THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO
ERODE THE CLOUDS OVER THE CWFA WITH P-CLOUDY SKIES ARRIVING FOR THE
MIDDAY/AFTN. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY...WHICH WILL ONLY ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE TEMPS COULD PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 50S.
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE THRU MUCH OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT LAYS OUT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN IN WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN AND SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK MID-LVL FEATURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OK THIS AFTN...AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. HOWEVER THE DIFFICULTIES IN HOW MUCH
FURTHER NORTH WILL BE ON THE STUBBORN SFC RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE SFC RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LLVL FLOW WILL BE TURNING
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO PUMP
ADDTL DRY AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LIKELY SHARPEN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE SLOWLY LIFTING BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION THIS
WILL DELAY THE MOISTENING AND PRECIP FROM LIFTING FURTHER NORTH
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK WED. NONETHELESS...A FEW LGT SHOWERS MAY
REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA ARND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL COOL MAINLY INTO THE 30S.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING AFT MIDNIGHT...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE CWFA...WITH CONTINUED EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE STUBBORN SFC
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. LCL HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WEAK
WAVE PROGGED TO INITIALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY NORTH WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND MAY INDEED KEEP PRECIP CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN CWFA UNTIL WED AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FORECAST
TO REFLECT THIS DELAY...HOWEVER GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT STILL HAVE SLGT CHC RAIN FURTHER NORTH BY MIDDAY.
THE NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC WILL PRODUCE AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WED WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
WARM BEYOND THE LOW/MID 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE TEMPS COULD TOUCH 50 DEG
WED.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME MID-LVL INSTABILITY
LIFTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 WED AFTN/EVE.
THE INITIAL SFC VORT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
WED AFTN/EVE...WITH ADDTL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/WARMTH FROM THE GULF WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE QUASI-BOUNDARY AND WILL SEE A GROWTH OF THE PRECIP
FIELD AS WELL AS INCREASED INSTABILITY INTO THUR. WARM AIR WILL
LIKELY BE PUSHING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWFA IN THE LOW/MID 40S. TO THE SOUTH FLOW
WILL BE TURNING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY AND WARM INTO THE LOW/MID
50S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB VORT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH
THE SECOND SFC WAVE POISED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THUR NGT. THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AND SHUD BE
ABLE TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE CWFA...WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S POSSIBLY MID/UPR 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST
FRI. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE
MIDDAY FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY ARRIVE IN THE MORNING WITH
NEAR STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING TEMPS FRI AFTN.
ENSEMBLES THEN CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY
PUSHING IN FOR FRI NGT/SAT...AND BRINGING DRY AIR BACK TO THE REGION
THRU SAT. MID-LVL FLOW DOES REMAIN IN A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP SAT...AND
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING YET ANOTHER MID-LVL TROUGH ARRIVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SAT...WHICH WITH THE RELATIVELY QUICK FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIP BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUN EVE/MON. FORTUNATELY
TEMPS SHUD BOUNCE BACK TO SEASONAL CONDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
* EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING IN SPEED BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY
ABATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MVFR CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 19 UTC...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AROUND 12 KT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS MOST OF
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...INCREASING MOISTURE...SURGING OVER A SURFACE WARM FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH...WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE 30 HOUR KORD TAF AND JUST GO WITH
-SHRA LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH WITH WIND FORECAST.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH ON -SHRA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* LOW ON THREAT FOR TSRA AT A GIVEN TERMINAL LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EAST FLOW WITH RAIN AND MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...EAST FLOW WITH RAIN AND MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
FRIDAY...CHC OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. SLT CHC OF SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC OF RAIN.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CDT
DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. A FEW LOW END GALES ARE SHOWING UP ON COASTAL OBS AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL WSW
TO SW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A FEW LOW END GALES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL
FORM MIDWEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT TO NEAR SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY THEN WILL TURN NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH GALES ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1209 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1111 AM CDT
MORNING UPDATE...
MOST GUIDANCE WAS UNDERDONE A BIT ON LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS AND CLOSED CELL STRATOCU
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES STILL ONLY
IN THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND UPPER 30S/LOW 40S TO
THE SOUTH AS OF THIS WRITING. 950-900 MB RH ON THE RAP MODEL...A
GOOD PROXY FOR CURRENT CLOUD HEIGHTS AND EXTENT...HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER AT THE MOMENT AND IT INDICATES A SLOWER
SCATTERING TREND THAN HAD BEEN FEATURED PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...NOW LOOKING LIKE BY MID AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CLOUDS HANGING ON LONGER AND SLIGHTLY COLDER THERMAL
PROFILES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. LEFT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
MAX T FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES THERE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY UP TO 30-40 MPH THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
RC
//PREV DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MINIMAL WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY...HOWEVER TONIGHT THE FOCUS WILL
BECOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EARLY THIS MORNING TEMPS REMAIN MILD ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IL/NORTHWEST IN...HOWEVER THAT IS ABOUT TO CHANGE AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ALREADY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA AND TEMPS
ARE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY
REACHES THE EASTERN CWFA ARND DAYBREAK...TEMPS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST CWFA.
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN A STRATUS LAYER THUR
THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO
ERODE THE CLOUDS OVER THE CWFA WITH P-CLOUDY SKIES ARRIVING FOR THE
MIDDAY/AFTN. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY...WHICH WILL ONLY ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE TEMPS COULD PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 50S.
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE THRU MUCH OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT LAYS OUT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN IN WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN AND SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK MID-LVL FEATURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OK THIS AFTN...AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. HOWEVER THE DIFFICULTIES IN HOW MUCH
FURTHER NORTH WILL BE ON THE STUBBORN SFC RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE SFC RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LLVL FLOW WILL BE TURNING
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO PUMP
ADDTL DRY AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LIKELY SHARPEN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE SLOWLY LIFTING BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION THIS
WILL DELAY THE MOISTENING AND PRECIP FROM LIFTING FURTHER NORTH
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK WED. NONETHELESS...A FEW LGT SHOWERS MAY
REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA ARND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL COOL MAINLY INTO THE 30S.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING AFT MIDNIGHT...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE CWFA...WITH CONTINUED EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE STUBBORN SFC
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. LCL HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WEAK
WAVE PROGGED TO INITIALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY NORTH WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND MAY INDEED KEEP PRECIP CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN CWFA UNTIL WED AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FORECAST
TO REFLECT THIS DELAY...HOWEVER GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT STILL HAVE SLGT CHC RAIN FURTHER NORTH BY MIDDAY.
THE NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC WILL PRODUCE AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WED WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
WARM BEYOND THE LOW/MID 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE TEMPS COULD TOUCH 50 DEG
WED.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME MID-LVL INSTABILITY
LIFTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 WED AFTN/EVE.
THE INITIAL SFC VORT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
WED AFTN/EVE...WITH ADDTL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/WARMTH FROM THE GULF WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE QUASI-BOUNDARY AND WILL SEE A GROWTH OF THE PRECIP
FIELD AS WELL AS INCREASED INSTABILITY INTO THUR. WARM AIR WILL
LIKELY BE PUSHING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWFA IN THE LOW/MID 40S. TO THE SOUTH FLOW
WILL BE TURNING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY AND WARM INTO THE LOW/MID
50S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB VORT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH
THE SECOND SFC WAVE POISED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THUR NGT. THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AND SHUD BE
ABLE TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE CWFA...WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S POSSIBLY MID/UPR 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST
FRI. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE
MIDDAY FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY ARRIVE IN THE MORNING WITH
NEAR STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING TEMPS FRI AFTN.
ENSEMBLES THEN CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY
PUSHING IN FOR FRI NGT/SAT...AND BRINGING DRY AIR BACK TO THE REGION
THRU SAT. MID-LVL FLOW DOES REMAIN IN A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP SAT...AND
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING YET ANOTHER MID-LVL TROUGH ARRIVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SAT...WHICH WITH THE RELATIVELY QUICK FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIP BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUN EVE/MON. FORTUNATELY
TEMPS SHUD BOUNCE BACK TO SEASONAL CONDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
* EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING IN SPEED BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY
ABATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MVFR CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 19 UTC...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AROUND 12 KT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS MOST OF
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...INCREASING MOISTURE...SURGING OVER A SURFACE WARM FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH...WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE 30 HOUR KORD TAF AND JUST GO WITH
-SHRA LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH WITH WIND FORECAST.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH ON -SHRA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* LOW ON THREAT FOR TSRA AT A GIVEN TERMINAL LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EAST FLOW WITH RAIN AND MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...EAST FLOW WITH RAIN AND MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
FRIDAY...CHC OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. SLT CHC OF SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC OF RAIN.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CDT
DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. A FEW LOW END GALES ARE SHOWING UP ON COASTAL OBS AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL WSW
TO SW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A FEW LOW END GALES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL
FORM MIDWEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT TO NEAR SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY THEN WILL TURN NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH GALES ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1111 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1111 AM CDT
MORNING UPDATE...
MOST GUIDANCE WAS UNDERDONE A BIT ON LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM DEEP
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS AND CLOSED CELL STRATOCU
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES STILL ONLY
IN THE LOW-MID 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND UPPER 30S/LOW 40S TO
THE SOUTH AS OF THIS WRITING. 950-900 MB RH ON THE RAP MODEL...A
GOOD PROXY FOR CURRENT CLOUD HEIGHTS AND EXTENT...HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER AT THE MOMENT AND IT INDICATES A SLOWER
SCATTERING TREND THAN HAD BEEN FEATURED PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...NOW LOOKING LIKE BY MID AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CLOUDS HANGING ON LONGER AND SLIGHTLY COLDER THERMAL
PROFILES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. LEFT AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
MAX T FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES THERE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY UP TO 30-40 MPH THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
RC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
326 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
MINIMAL WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY...HOWEVER TONIGHT THE FOCUS WILL
BECOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EARLY THIS MORNING TEMPS REMAIN MILD ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IL/NORTHWEST IN...HOWEVER THAT IS ABOUT TO CHANGE AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ALREADY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA AND TEMPS
ARE DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY
REACHES THE EASTERN CWFA ARND DAYBREAK...TEMPS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST CWFA.
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN A STRATUS LAYER THUR
THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO
ERODE THE CLOUDS OVER THE CWFA WITH P-CLOUDY SKIES ARRIVING FOR THE
MIDDAY/AFTN. FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY...WHICH WILL ONLY ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
FAR SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE TEMPS COULD PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 50S.
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE THRU MUCH OF THE
EVENING...HOWEVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT LAYS OUT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN IN WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN AND SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK MID-LVL FEATURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL OK THIS AFTN...AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. HOWEVER THE DIFFICULTIES IN HOW MUCH
FURTHER NORTH WILL BE ON THE STUBBORN SFC RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE SFC RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LLVL FLOW WILL BE TURNING
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP TO PUMP
ADDTL DRY AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LIKELY SHARPEN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE SLOWLY LIFTING BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION THIS
WILL DELAY THE MOISTENING AND PRECIP FROM LIFTING FURTHER NORTH
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK WED. NONETHELESS...A FEW LGT SHOWERS MAY
REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA ARND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL COOL MAINLY INTO THE 30S.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING AFT MIDNIGHT...HIGH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE CWFA...WITH CONTINUED EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE STUBBORN SFC
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. LCL HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WEAK
WAVE PROGGED TO INITIALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY NORTH WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND MAY INDEED KEEP PRECIP CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN CWFA UNTIL WED AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FORECAST
TO REFLECT THIS DELAY...HOWEVER GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT STILL HAVE SLGT CHC RAIN FURTHER NORTH BY MIDDAY.
THE NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC WILL PRODUCE AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WED WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
WARM BEYOND THE LOW/MID 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE TEMPS COULD TOUCH 50 DEG
WED.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME MID-LVL INSTABILITY
LIFTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 WED AFTN/EVE.
THE INITIAL SFC VORT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
WED AFTN/EVE...WITH ADDTL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE/WARMTH FROM THE GULF WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE QUASI-BOUNDARY AND WILL SEE A GROWTH OF THE PRECIP
FIELD AS WELL AS INCREASED INSTABILITY INTO THUR. WARM AIR WILL
LIKELY BE PUSHING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWFA IN THE LOW/MID 40S. TO THE SOUTH FLOW
WILL BE TURNING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY AND WARM INTO THE LOW/MID
50S.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
500MB VORT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH
THE SECOND SFC WAVE POISED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THUR NGT. THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AND SHUD BE
ABLE TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE CWFA...WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S POSSIBLY MID/UPR 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST
FRI. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE
MIDDAY FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY ARRIVE IN THE MORNING WITH
NEAR STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FALLING TEMPS FRI AFTN.
ENSEMBLES THEN CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW QUICKLY
PUSHING IN FOR FRI NGT/SAT...AND BRINGING DRY AIR BACK TO THE REGION
THRU SAT. MID-LVL FLOW DOES REMAIN IN A SEMI-ZONAL SETUP SAT...AND
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING YET ANOTHER MID-LVL TROUGH ARRIVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SAT...WHICH WITH THE RELATIVELY QUICK FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIP BACK INTO THE REGION BY SUN EVE/MON. FORTUNATELY
TEMPS SHUD BOUNCE BACK TO SEASONAL CONDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* MVFR CIGS 025-030 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
BMD/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND MVFR STRATUS IN ITS WAKE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WITH GUSTS INTO THE HIGH 20 KT RANGE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER...WITH GUSTS ENDING ALTOGETHER IN THE
EVENING. SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BACK EDGE RESULTS IN A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT BACK EDGE
TO ACCELERATE IN ITS EROSION WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT BY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT ACROSS
DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS AND BEGIN TO WAVE BACK NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A SLOW SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP TO
REMAIN BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH WITH CIGS.
* HIGH WITH WINDS.
BMD/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EAST FLOW WITH RAIN AND MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...EAST FLOW WITH RAIN AND MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
FRIDAY...CHC OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. SLT CHC OF SNOW DURING
THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC OF RAIN.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
247 AM CDT
DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. A FEW LOW END GALES ARE SHOWING UP ON COASTAL OBS AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL WSW
TO SW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A FEW LOW END GALES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL
FORM MIDWEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT TO NEAR SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY THEN WILL TURN NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH GALES ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
417 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
Activity firing along an elevated boundary layer theta-e axis from
Perry County Missouri...along the Shawnee Foothills in Southern
Illinois to near Southern Union and McLean Counties in West Kentucky.
Periodic reports of pea (less than 1/4 inch) hail have been reported
with the isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. This boundary is the
former cold front that moved into the area late last night into
this morning.
The 3km HRRR guidance has done a pretty good job of modeling the storm
scale expansion along the boundary. Intermittent hail production will
still be a likelihood through sunset. Precipitation loading and
evaporative cooling could also generate some isolated wind gusts
in excess of 40 mph as well through late afternoon.
$$
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 416 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
Weak surface front has become difficult to locate this
afternoon...but seems to be roughly along a line from ksdf to kpah
to kpof. This is about where the surface pressure trough and
strongest dew point gradient are located. A small line of showers
and storms has developed from kmdh west across kfam at 20z. This
activity correlates with a strong 850 mb instability and thetae
gradient. The activity will likely shift east northeast across
southern IL and southwest IN through early evening.
As for the overnight hours...there is some potential for additional
activity to develop. The front will sharpen up over western KY and
southeast MO tonight...and deep southwest flow will result in
increasing precip water values. With very limited instability and
moisture...pops will be kept in the chance range. Best chance will
be along and north of Interstate 64...closer to the 850 mb front.
On Wednesday...the front will lift north across our region...passing
north of Interstate 64 late in the day. Again...highest pops will be
in northern counties...closer to the location of the front during
the peak heating hours. With no significant upper level
support...pops will still be kept in the chance category for most
areas.
Models are in good agreement that a round of heavy precip is likely
Wednesday night as a mid level impulse lifts northeast. Heaviest
qpf...on the order of an inch or so...is likely in southern IL/sw
Indiana in closer proximity to the surface front. The surface front
will be along or north of Interstate 70...but strong low level
moisture transport should be sufficient for heavy rainers. Some hail
is possible in the stronger updrafts...but overall severe weather
potential is limited by lack of surface based instability.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
The transition from short term to long term part of the forecast will
be subtle as the WFO PAH forecast area remains boldly in the warm
sector on Thursday.
Recent trends suggest that there may be some stabilization of the
boundary layer as well as a brief capping aloft during the morning
and early afternoon hours. There may some insolation at mid-
morning enough to warm parcels through the low level cap to support
isolated strong convection between 10 am and 1 pm Thursday afternoon.
However...the NAM-WRF numerical model family indicates that an
organized convective line (squall line?) will develop from the cold
front toward southern sections of the WFO CWA. Given the low-level
turning...cannot rule out some decent updrafts during the
afternoon with pre-frontal convective line. This may produce
isolated to scattered severe storms. The better lift and overall
instability will be realized with the approaching cold front
itself, yielding a better potential for hail...wind gusts and
isolated tornado potential, as the upper trough becomes more
negatively titled. The majority of the severe threat should be
out of the WFO PAH CWA before daybreak on Friday.
Given the congestion of intermittent convective elements
(thunderstorm clusters) throughout the day, it will be difficult
to pin down any defined time period were at least isolated severe
storms and areal flooding will not be a concern Thursday afternoon
and night.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2014
A weak cold front has nearly lost identity over the Lower Ohio
Valley. Scattered low and mid clouds will arrive from the
west/southwest this afternoon...otherwise no aviation concerns exist
through 00z.
Early this evening...vfr cigs will overspread the kcgi/kpah areas as
the front sharpens over western KY and southeast MO. These clouds
will reach the kevv/kowb areas toward midnight. Some showers are
possible...but potential is too low for inclusion in tafs.
The front will become a warm front and lift north across the region
Wed morning. MVFR cigs are likely to develop early in the morning
along and behind this front. Some light haze or fog is also likely
as more humid air arrives.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...Smith
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
427 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
LATEST 19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING NE INTO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND 850 MB FGEN ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW FROM ERN UPPER MI INTO NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW UPR MI ALONG
OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND ASSOC
INSTABILITY/MIXING HAS CAUSED SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN OVER 35
MPH IN THE PAST HR.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW
QUICKLY LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS Q-VECT DIV AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT FM THE SW WITH APPROACH OF SFC
RDG AXIS. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY LIFTING NE
AND/OR DIMINISHING OVER THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO
RANGE FM AROUND 10F OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FM THE NW WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MIXING TO NEAR 875 MB OFF THE NAM
SNDGS WOULD YIELD HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR AND EAST TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F SW AND SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING CHANCE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE ALONG WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD. DURING THIS TIME...A WEAKENED
SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE ROCKIES MAKING WAY FOR LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH
STRONGER SURFACE LOW FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. OVERALL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET OTHER THAN A SLOW
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA BY 06Z FRIDAY AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING MSLP ALONG
WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EC/GFS/GEM. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT
INITIALLY LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE U.P. WHICH
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA PUSHING INTO THE CWA. THIS CAN EASILY BE
SEEN BY PLOTTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RH ALONG WITH PRESSURE ON THE
300K ISOSURFACE. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS SHOWN BY THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE 300K ISOSURFACE TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL AHEAD OF
THE LOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...HOWEVER...IN AN AREA STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY
MENOMINEE TO ESCANABA OVER TO NEWBERRY WILL SEE THE SNOW MIX WITH OR
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AS WARMER AIR PUSHES IN JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER PENINSULA BY 12Z FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO BE
STAGGERED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO BE NEAR
SOUTHERN WI AROUND THIS TIME.
THE STRONGEST SYSTEM FORCING WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.P. ALONG WITH STRONGER FGEN FORCING AT 700MB AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY ALLOWING HEAVY WET SNOW TO DEVELOP...WHILE THE EASTERN U.P.
WILL STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF FORCING DUE TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...THANKS TO CONTINUED WAA...HELPING TO KEEP A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THOSE AREAS. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
STEEP THROUGH THE DGZ WITH EPV VALUES AROUND 0 OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW...POSSIBLY LEADING TO THUNDER...BUT DEFINITELY HELPING WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. AGAIN THESE ARE FINER DETAILS WHICH WILL HAVE
TO BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BETWEEN 18Z
FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
LOW BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY STACKED ALLOWING THE LOW TO OCCLUDE. AT
THE SAME TIME WARM AIR ASCENDS AND WRAPS AROUND THE LOW ALLOWING FOR
A TROWAL TYPE SETUP OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE U.P. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS AS IF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WOULD BE UNDER
THE TROWAL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 850MB LOW...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
SNOWFALL RATES...WHILE THE EASTERN U.P. MAY END UP SEEING A BIT OF A
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT TRIES
TO SLIP INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SO THE FINAL LOCATIONS OF
THESE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AND MESOSCALE FEATURES MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE MOST MODELS HAVE A
SIMILAR SNOW TRACK...THEY EACH VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE DETAILS WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS EVENT HIGHLIGHTING THE HEAVY
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.P. WHILE ALSO
HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO SATURDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. INITIALLY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE U.P. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...HOWEVER...AS THE
LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND BRINGING AND END TO THE
PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE LOW AS MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED...A CONSENSUS
APPROACH IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS AT THIS TIME AND
JUST BE AWARE THAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
A LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTING OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS BROUGHT IN
COLDER ON THE HEELS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW HAS
REDUCED VSBYS AT KIWD AND KCMX TO MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY IFR AS WINDS
HAVE GUSTED BTWN 25-30 KT. AT KSAW...MVFR CIGS MOVED IN LATE THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD STICK AROUND INTO THE EVENING HRS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE DRY AIR COMES IN BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED AT ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2014
THE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT NE OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING. WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES OR GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THEN DIMINISH BLO GALES LATER
TONIGHT AS LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT WELL NE OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES
BUILDIN OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WED
INTO THU. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR OK THURSDAY MORNING WILL PUSH
NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF LAKE HURON AND INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NE-N GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ244-245-264>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
953 AM PDT TUE APR 1 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATES TO TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING`S FORECASTS WERE SENT
BETWEEN 9 AM AND 930 AM PDT THIS MORNING. THESE UPDATES WERE
MOSTLY RELATED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY VALID THROUGH NOON PDT
TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, SOME UPDATES WERE MADE FOR OTHER AREAS TO
ADJUST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTHEAST OF THE OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN AND IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL OVER HARNEY, CROOK, DESCHUTES, AND NORTHEASTERN LAKE
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY WINDS. REPORTS AND ROAD CAMERAS
THIS MORNING INDICATE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
EAST SIDE, THOUGH THERE WAS ONE REPORT OF 7 INCHES AT HOGBACK
SUMMIT JUST SOUTH OF ALKALI LAKE. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AND
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS IN THE 20S HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE LAST
1 TO 2 HOURS AT RILEY ON HIGHWAY 20 JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. EXPECT
SIMILAR, BUT SLIGHTLY LESS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING NORTH
OF ALKALI LAKE ON HIGHWAY 395 AND ALONG HIGHWAY 20 IN LAKE COUNTY.
THUS, WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
IN THIS NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY AREA THROUGH NOON TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON THE RAPID UPDATE CYCLE AND HRRR SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION RATES DIMINISHING AND TEMPERATURES RISING
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. OTHER LONGER RANGE NUMERICAL
MODELS SHOW SOMETHING SIMILAR, THOUGH LESS DIMINISHMENT OF THE
SNOWFALL. ALL MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW PUSHING THROUGH
LAKE COUNTY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. WE`LL BE LOOKING INTO THIS FURTHER OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW WELL THE MODELS ARE
HANDLING THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AND IF ADDITIONAL SNOW
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY, INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL COL AREA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BECOME
LOCALLY INTENSE AND COULD PRODUCE RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND SMALL
HAIL OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE SISKIYOUS AND AREAS IN AND
NEAR CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/12Z TAF CYCLE...
HIGHER CLOUDS HAVE PREVENTED THE FORMATION OF LOWER CEILINGS ON
THE EAST SIDE...BUT CLEARER SKIES ON THE WEST SIDE HAVE ALLOWED
FOR IFR CEILINGS TO FORM IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS...INCLUDING AT
KMFR AND KRBG. THESE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL ROUGHLY
16 UTC...AT WHICH TIME VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE
AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. ALSO...EXPECT TERRAIN TO BECOME
MOSTLY OBSCURED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND THE KLAMATH BASIN COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN CURRENT TAF ISSUANCE. -BPN
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS. THERE IS SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCY FROM RUN-TO-RUN CONCERNING
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT...AND DESPITE THIS
UNCERTAINTY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT WITH A STRONG RIDGE
NEARBY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FIRMLY IN THE REGION. -BPN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM PDT TUE APR 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...THE CLOSED LOW OFF SOUTHERN OREGON COAST CONTINUES
TO SEND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH INLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST MODOC COUNTY. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING
RATHER QUICKLY AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY
AROUND DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES WHICH
DOES NOT OCCUR THAT OFTEN. THE COLD POOL AT 500 HPA STAYS OFFSHORE
WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE SOUTHERN ZONE OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT THIS COLD POOL TO ROTATE INTO CURRY COUNTY
THIS MORNING WITH INSTABILITY AREA EXTENDING INTO THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES THIS
MORNING, BUT AS WE SEE MORE SURFACE HEATING, EXPECT SHOWERS TO
PICK UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
CASCADES/SISKIYOUS BUT POPS COULD GO EVEN LOWER IF THE RIDGING
SHOWS UP STRONGER IN THE NEXT RUN. THE NEXT TROUGH IS ON TRACK TO
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A FAST MOVER
WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. AS A
RESULT, THIS NEXT FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG RAIN/SNOW
PRODUCER, AND MAY JUST BE A HIGH POPS/LOW QPF SYSTEM.
BEYOND THURSDAY THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE QUIET WITH
LONG WAVE RIDGE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH BROAD RIDGING THAT MAY ALLOW HIGH
CLOUDS TO RIDE OVER. QUICK GLANCE UPSTREAM SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO BRING THIS TROUGH INLAND AROUND THE
MIDDLE TO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ORZ030-031.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ376.
$$
BTL/BPN/FJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
354 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...
THE 3 PM WEST TEXAS MESONET OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE DRYLINE
FIRMING UP ACROSS BAILEY...HOCKLEY AND LYNN COUNTIES...HEADING
EAST. MEANWHILE A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCED FROM THE NRN PERMIAN
BASIN...SEWD TO NEAR SWEETWATER...THEN NEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE IT WAS RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT. UNDERNEATH A
SWATH OF CIRRUS...SOME CU DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED ON SAT IMAGERY NEAR
SWEETWATER...WHERE INSTABILITY WAS BUILDING AS MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
FLOW NWWD INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. SHORT-RANGE PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ MAY REACH STONEWALL COUNTY BY
22-23 UTC. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK...WE DO EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING AS A SMALL
SPEED-MAX IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACHES FROM THE W-SW. WHILE
SB-CAPES APPROACHING 2K J/KG AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KTS
OR SO SHOULD RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WE THINK THAT GIVEN THAT
EXPECTED ISOLATED STORM INITIATION MAY BE MOST FAVORED IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF STONEWALL AND PERHAPS KING COUNTIES...THE THREAT OF SVR
WX WILL BE MAINLY JUST TO OUR EAST AS THE STORMS MOVE NEWD.
HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE ANY T-STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY INTENSITY PRETTY
QUICKLY. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55-60 MPH
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE SMALL STORM CHANCES SHOULD END BY LATE
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. TONIGHT...THE RAP AND THE
HRRR ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODELS IN DEPICTING THE DRYLINE
RETREATING BACK INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL SPLNS...WHICH COULD BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG OR THIN LOW STRATUS TO THE AREA...WHILE THE
NAM AND GFS ARE MUCH LESS BULLISH ON THIS IDEA. FOR NOW...WE/VE
HINTED AT A FARTHER NWWD MOISTURE RETURN BUT HAVE NOT BOUGHT INTO IT
COMPLETELY...AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THE TRENDS. IT
WILL BE MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT ALSO
SOME LOW 60S SOUTHEAST.
NO MATTER HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE MOISTURE GETS TONIGHT...IT WILL
BE READILY SCOURED OUT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE FACE OF INCREASING STRONG
AND DEEP SW FLOW. THE DRYLINE MAY STILL HUG OUR ERN BORDER AROUND
NOON-TIME...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED OFF WELL EAST BY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 25 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND THIS
SHOULD KICK UP SOME BLOWING DUST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 70S NW TO NEAR 90 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM...
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED
FROM A MODERATELY UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME TO A MORE STABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF LONGWAVE RIDGING TO OUR WEST.
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FOCUSED ON TWO PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS LATER
THIS WEEK IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...ONE FOR THURSDAY AND THE OTHER BY
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FORMER PROMISES TO SWING A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON THURSDAY COMPLETE
WITH BORDERLINE ADVISORY WINDS...BUT THE STRONGEST 850-700MB WINDS
ARE FORTUNATELY SHOWN TO TRANSLATE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION
BEFORE PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF EVEN COOLER TEMPS FOLLOWING A WEAK
POLAR FRONT BY SUNSET.
AFTER A FLEETING S/W RIDGE ON FRIDAY...THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH SHOWS
SOME PROMISE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER BY SATURDAY AS IT SPURS
WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION COMPLETE WITH A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH LL DEWPOINTS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
INSPIRING GIVEN THE MODIFIED FETCH OF MOISTURE FOLLOWING THU
NIGHT/S FRONT...AN AXIS OF ISENTROPIC MOISTENING AND LIFT FROM
300-310K COULD SET UP FAVORABLY FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS SETUP
LOOKS TO FAVOR A LOW CAPE AND MODERATE/STRONG SHEAR SCENARIO...SO
WE/LL BE MONITORING THIS IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS THESE DECEPTIVELY
LOW CAPE AIR MASSES CAN GARNER ROTATING STORMS WITH SUCH FAVORABLE
SHEAR AND LIFT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALIVE ALL AFTN AND
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BEFORE SCALING THESE BACK FROM WEST-TO-EAST ON
SUNDAY. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ONLY LOOK TO BE REINFORCED
THEREAFTER AS WE TRANSITION INTO NWLY FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 27. THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT...WITH POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SW TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH PLAINS...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERY
ELSEWHERE.
THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH VERY
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING EASTWARD.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE CWA AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY FROM 11
AM TO 10 PM.
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IN THE MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL WILDFIRE
THREAT NOW APPEARS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN EARLIER INDICATED GIVEN
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WHICH RARELY COINCIDE WITH ACTIVE WILDFIRE
DAYS. NONETHELESS...MIN RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT COMBINED WITH
20-FT WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WARRANT KEEPING THE FIRE WX WATCH INTACT
AREA WIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 44 75 38 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 43 80 41 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 45 81 43 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 44 80 43 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 49 82 46 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 47 79 47 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 48 81 46 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 53 88 48 77 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 55 86 49 76 42 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 64 90 50 80 45 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>023-027>029-033-034-039-040.
&&
$$
33/93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1238 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Through midnight expect VFR conditions to prevail. Winds will be
gusty out of the south this afternoon, which will continue through
much of the TAF period. The southerly winds will keep the low level
moisture in place, and low clouds will develop again tonight. Expect
MVFR CIGS to persist into tomorrow morning, much like this morning.
Junction, Sonora, and Brady will likely see the clouds begin to lift
late in the morning, again much like today. There is a slight chance
of rain through tomorrow though no confidence in any impacts at the
TAF sites.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Look for MVFR to IFR ceilings to dominate West Central Texas, along
and south of a line from Sonora to Brownwood, through mid morning.
The latest satellite imagery indicate stratus has returned to the
northwest Hill Country and southern Heartland this morning. The
latest RUC indicates stratus will advance to near a Sonora to
Brownwood line, before mixing breaks this low-cloud deck. By mid
morning, expect gusty south surface winds and VFR conditions to
dominate West Central Texas. Overnight tonight, stratus will again
return to West Central Texas, and by this time tomorrow, plan for
MVFR to dominate.
Huber
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening
across some West Central Texas locations. A surface dryline will mix
east today to near a Haskell, to San Angelo, to Ozona line. Model
forecast soundings, along and east of this line, indicate CAPEs in
the 2000 to 2500 J/Kg range by 21Z this afternoon. Plus, the cap
doesn`t look like it will be as strong as models were indicating
this time yesterday. Thus, any thunderstorms which do develop may be
severe, mainly along and east of the dryline this afternoon and
evening, and especially north and east of a line from Sweetwater to
Brownwood, where low-level moisture convergence will be greatest
along and near the dryline. The primary threats will be large hail
and damaging winds.
Huber
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
PoPs are problematic for Wednesday through Thursday morning.
The main upper trough will move across the Great Basin and
into the Southwestern states on Wednesday, then track east
into the central/southern Rockies Wednesday night. The upper
trough will lift out to the northeast into the central Plains
with a closed low on Thursday. A sharpened dryline is expected to
mix east across roughly the western half of West Central Texas
Wednesday afternoon. Whether convergence along the dryline and
lift can be enough to break the cap looks uncertain. The model
moisture and PoP fields look anemic. A favorable factor, however,
would be if an embedded disturbance in the southwest flow aloft
can enter our area during peak heating, as the 00Z GFS shows.
Continuing with slight chance PoP for now across the area roughly
east of a Haskell to San Angelo to Ozona line. With the strong
instability and favorable vertical wind shear progged, any storms
which develop could become severe with large hail and damaging
winds the main threats. The dryline is expected to make a partial
retreat into our western and northwestern counties Wednesday
night, before being overtaken by a Pacific front early Thursday
morning. The Pacific front will surge east across our area
Thursday morning. With this and the approach of the main upper
trough, have low PoP for showers and thunderstorms across much of
our area Wednesday night, and across much of the eastern half
Thursday morning.
The other concern for Thursday is an enhanced fire weather threat,
addressed in the Fire Weather section below. As the aforementioned
upper system lifts out to our north on Thursday, the associated
dry slot will overspread West Central Texas during the afternoon.
With this setup, deep mixing will promote rather windy conditions
with an intrusion of very dry air from the west. Given the
westerly low-level flow and associated downsloping, going with
highs 2-3 degrees above MOS guidance on Thursday.
A secondary cold front from the north will push south across West
Central Texas Thursday night. Dry and cooler conditions will follow
on Friday. Temperatures look pleasant for Saturday as well, when
east winds will become southeast as surface high pressure ridge
axis shifts east into the Mississippi Valley.
The forecast becomes problematic again with rain chances for the
latter half of the weekend and first part of next week. The 00Z
GFS and ECMWF continue to show noteworthy differences. While both
models show an upper trough moving across the Southwestern states
and approaching Texas, the GFS has the trough axis shifting east
of our area on Sunday afternoon, then has our area in an amplified
northwest flow aloft. The ECMWF has energy digging down the back
side of the trough, with the setup favoring a better (and much
needed) rain chance for our area developing Monday and continuing
through Tuesday. Given this uncertainty at the end of the long-
term, however, have not added PoPs yet for early next week.
19
FIRE WEATHER...
Look for elevated fire weather conditions to develop again this
afternoon, as a surface dryline mixes east across West Central
Texas. Locations mainly west of a Haskell, to San Angelo, to Ozona
line will have the most elevated fire weather conditions. There,
afternoon minimum relative humidity will range from the upper teens
to around 20; plus, sustained winds at 20 feet above ground level
will be from the south around 15 mph.
On Wednesday, watch for elevated fire weather conditions to develop
again across more of West Central Texas, as a dryline mixes farther
east. Afternoon minimum relative humidity will drop into the 10 to
20 percent range, mainly along and west of a Haskell, to San Angelo,
to Ozona line. There, fire weather conditions will again be the
greatest. In addition, winds at 20 feet above ground level will
again be around 15 mph, along and west of this line.
On Thursday, critical fire weather conditions may develop across
much of West Central Texas, as afternoon minimum relative humidity
drops to a range from around 10 to 20 percent. Plus, an approaching
cold front will push a surface trough east across West Central
Texas. Behind this trough, sustained winds at 20 feet above ground
level may range from 20 to 30 mph for much of West Central Texas
north of the Interstate 10 corridor, mainly during the afternoon.
Huber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 67 90 59 85 47 / 20 20 20 10 10
San Angelo 68 91 59 85 49 / 10 20 20 10 10
Junction 67 87 63 86 51 / 20 20 20 20 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Reimer