Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/31/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
308 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LATE SEASON
WINTER STORM MOVES ACROSS THE SIERRA. A COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR AND WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST AS MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL ALSO MOVE ONSHORE AND ENHANCE THE MOISTURE BAND. SNOW
LEVELS EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST NEAR TAHOE HAVE REMAINED NEAR
6500-7000 FEET BUT SHOULD DROP TO LAKE LEVEL BEFORE 5 PM. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST A PERIOD OF 6-8
HOURS, AND TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS SNOW
BEGINS ACCUMULATING ON PAVED SURFACES. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. FARTHER NORTH INTO LASSEN COUNTY, ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW HAS ALREADY ACCUMULATED ABOVE 5500 FEET, THE HEAVIER SNOW IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO END SOONER, SO THE ADVISORY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.
LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWER BANDS MAY CONTINUE LATER TONIGHT, DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN NORTH CENTRAL CA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FOR MONO COUNTY, SNOW WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING, SPREADING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA AND PROBABLY REACHING THE MAMMOTH
LAKES VICINITY BY 8 PM. BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES, WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE, SO THE ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. SINCE ALL OF THE SNOW WILL FALL IN A COMPRESSED TIME
PERIOD AND THE BAND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT, SNOW TOTALS
NEAR THE CREST MAY TOP OUT CLOSER TO 16 INCHES INSTEAD OF THE
ORIGINAL 20 INCH PROJECTION. HOWEVER, IMPACTS WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE WARNING IN PLACE TONIGHT.
FOR WESTERN NV, THE RAIN SHADOW HAS PERSISTED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL HAVE
INDICATED RAPID SPILLOVER INTO THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY BETWEEN 4
AND 5 PM, WITH UP TO 6 HOURS OF NEARLY STEADY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS, RAINFALL COULD STILL ADD UP TO BETWEEN
0.25 AND 0.50 INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
WILL FALL DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIP
COULD END AS SNOW BELOW 5000 FEET, BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN VALLEYS. ABOVE 5000 FEET, A COUPLE
INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE, BUT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL IN
DOUGLAS COUNTY AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ONGOING HEAVIER PRECIP BAND. THIS OCCURRED WITH ONE OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS SEASON SO THIS WOULD NEED TO BE MONITORED LATER
TONIGHT.
ALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE RAIN
AND SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR SUNDAY, A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN WEST CENTRAL NV EAST OF HIGHWAY 95,
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
MODERATE WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MJD
A COLDER LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH 700MB NEAR -10C. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO MOST VALLEY
FLOORS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THAT BEING SAID, THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEVADA, LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AND LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. THIS IS MAINLY
BECAUSE THE LOW IS TRYING TO SPLIT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND DRIVE THE
JET AND DYNAMICS WELL INTO SOUTHERN CA.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE SIERRA LATE MONDAY
AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CA. THE 500MB
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED, WHICH IS IS NOT
NECESSARILY GOOD FOR SPILLOVER. BUT, WE SHOULD BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIGHT SPILLOVER IF THE JET REMAINS SOUTH OF MONO COUNTY.
BY TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING UNDER THE COLD POOL. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY
STRONG DUE TO THE INCREASED SOLAR HEATING. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE, BECAUSE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA MAY
CREATE SOME LOW-LEVEL FORCING THAT COULD INCREASE PRECIPITATION
RATES IN THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. HOON
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE LARGELY DIVERGED WITH THE GFS
PRESENTING A SPLIT SYSTEM WILL VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION; THE EC
SHOWS A MORE CONSOLIDATED FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL OREGON
AND DECENT PRECIP ALONG THE SIERRA. THEREFORE, VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE EXISTING FORECAST FAVORING A BLENDED APPROACH WITH 30-40%
CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE SIERRA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK AROUND TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH MODEST COLD AIR ALOFT AT 700MB AND AMPLE
CLOUD COVER. HOPEFULLY SOLUTIONS WILL BEGIN TO CONVERGE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER DETAILS. BOYD
&&
.AVIATION...
A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED BY 00Z AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN,
WITH ABOUT 6-8 HOURS OF CIGS/VSBY BELOW LANDING MINIMUMS AT
KTVL/KTRK THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT. FOR KMMH, THE
WORST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM 03Z-12Z FROM THIS SAME SNOW BAND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE.
FOR WESTERN NV INCLUDING KRNO-KCXP, RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND 00Z,
PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBY AT TIMES FOR 4-6 HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS
PRECIP MAY BRIEFLY END AS SNOW, BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED ON RUNWAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. MJD
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
IN NVZ004.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET
FOR CAZ071.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
CAZ073.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
1112 AM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
WE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RENO ZONE THRU 3 PM. GUSTS
TO 50 MPH WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE RENO AIRPORT AND PORTIONS
OF WASHOE VALLEY. SOME BLOWING DUST WAS STILL OBSERVED OUTSIDE THE
WINDOW NEAR THE EAST END OF THE CITY. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS A
FEW MORE HOURS OF SHADOWING BEFORE RAIN SPILLS OVER INTO RENO-
CARSON CITY, SO LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THEN.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES TO
HEADLINES. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6500 FEET WEST OF TAHOE SHOULD DROP
TO LAKE LEVEL BY MID AFTERNOON. MJD
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW IN THE SIERRA AND
RAIN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. AREA WEBCAMS SHOWING SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX WITH RAIN AT BOGARD IN WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE SIERRA TODAY WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SIERRA IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AND THIS EVENING IN MONO COUNTY.
GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH SOME OF THE
WIND PRONE AREAS ALREADY GUSTING INTO THE 60-70 MPH RANGE. OUTSIDE
OF THE WIND PRONE REGIONS WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE. 700MB FLOW WILL PEAK THIS MORNING WITH THE
SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASING AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. AS SUCH,
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY COVERING AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA
WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE RENO/CARSON/GARDNERVILLE REGION ALONG WITH
MONO COUNTY. WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VALLEY AREAS
WITH WIND PRONE AREAS CONTINUING IN THE 60-70 MPH RANGE. HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS LAKES. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION
AND FRONT.
HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT AREAS ABOVE 7000 FEET THIS MORNING BEFORE
SNOW LEVELS STEADILY DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL FEATURE DYNAMIC SUPPORT
VIA A COUPLED JET AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH WILL PROVIDE
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ABOVE 7000 FEET ALLOWING FOR SNOWFALL
RATES HEAVY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS RESULTING IN TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS PASSES. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO FALL TO LAKE LEVEL
DURING THE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 3-6PM. PERIODS OF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ARE POSSIBLE EARLIER WITHIN HEAVIER BANDS OF
PRECIP. ALL TOLD SNOWFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING COULD SEE
UPWARDS OF 2 FEET ACROSS THE CREST WITH GENERALLY ABOUT 6-12"
POSSIBLE BELOW 7000 FEET, HIGHEST ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
BASIN. SPILLOVER IS LIKELY INTO WESTERN NEVADA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH THE PRESENCE OF DYNAMIC FORCING.
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT WITH SNOWFALL POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS AS SNOW LEVELS
QUICKLY FALL TO NEAR 5000 FEET WITH THE FRONT. TIMING ACROSS MONO
COUNTY FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE COUPLED JET SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.5-2 FEET STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CREST IN MONO COUNTY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY.
SHOWERS TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING WITH A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS A COLDER SYSTEM IS POISED TO PROVIDE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA WITH SNOW LEVELS LOW
ENOUGH TO EVEN PROVIDE SNOW TO THE VALLEY AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION, THE COLDER AIRMASS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
HIGHER RATIO SNOWFALLS WITH AN ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWN
AT THE VALLEY FLOORS IN WESTERN NEVADA. FUENTES
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS A BIT
HIGHER THIS MORNING THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT
MORE WITH THE SPLITTING OF THE UPPER LOW TUESDAY AS IT COMES IN AS
WELL AS THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE UPPER LOW IS NOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DROP WEST OF THE AREA
WITH MORE OF A SPLIT ON TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS OCCURRING, THERE WILL
STILL BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT FOR SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY ALL
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, BUT WILL LEAVE THAT OUT FOR NOW AS IT STILL
LOOKS MARGINAL.
SLOW DRYING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS
MOSTLY DRY RIGHT NOW, BUT THE EC AND A COUPLE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW ENOUGH COLD AIR AND MOISTURE ALOFT REMAIN FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK, THE MODELS SHOW WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS. THE EC BRINGS IN
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SLOWLY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE WITH THE
JET STREAM REMAINING NORTH INTO OREGON. HAVE NOT CHANGED ANYTHING
YET AS IT STILL LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT WET AND SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH, EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK WITH TUESDAY BEING THE
COLDEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL DUE TO THE
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SIERRA
NORTH OF LAKE TAHOE. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE
DAY AND PUSH THROUGH MONO COUNTY BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.
FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS: EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 7000 FEET AT KTRK/KTVL. CIGS/VIS TO REMAIN
MVFR TO OCNL IFR THRU 22Z AND THERE COULD BE SOME ICING ISSUES
ALOFT. TRANSITION TO SNOW BETWEEN 22-00Z WITH 70% CONFIDENCE WITH
HEAVY SNOW THEREAFTER THROUGH 06Z BLO KTRK/KTVL MINIMUMS. RUNWAY
ACCUM AROUND 6 INCHES. IMPROVING CONDS THEREAFTER.
FOR KMMH, SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS THROUGH 22Z WITH SIGNIFICANT
TURBULENCE BEFORE -RA BEGINS AFTER 00Z. CHANGES TO SNOW 03-06Z WITH
IFR CONDS AND 2-4 INCHES RUNWAY ACCUMULATION WITH CONFIDENCE 60-70%.
KRNO/KCXP: GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WITH MTN WAVE
TURBULENCE AND LIMITED LLWS THROUGH 18Z. AS BAND SHIFTS SOUTH, MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SPILLOVER SO EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20
KTS. WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS IN RA 20-03Z AND 70% CONFIDENCE. -RA WILL
CHANGE TO -SN AS IT ENDS AROUND 03Z, BUT NO RUNWAY ACCUMULATION.
EXPECT VFR CONDS THEREAFTER WITH AN OCCASIONAL STRAY -SHSN
OVERNIGHT. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON NVZ003.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PYRAMID
LAKE IN NVZ004.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET
FOR CAZ071.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON CAZ073.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
CAZ073.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
346 AM PDT Sat Mar 29 2014
.Synopsis...
Rain and mountain snow over Interior Northern California today
with a threat of afternoon thunderstorms...decreasing Sunday. A
colder and wetter storm impacts the area Monday and Tuesday with
another system possible towards the end of the week.
&&
.Discussion...
Pacific front will work its way through Interior NorCal this
morning with steady precip turning showery behind the baroclinic
zone. Periods of moderate to heavy snow and gusty wind expected
in the Western Plumas and Northern Sierra Nevada today as the
storm tracks through. Snow levels this morning running around 6000
to 6500 feet but will lower to around 5000 to 5500 feet later
today behind the front. Both the HRRR and local WRF showing an
area of 500+ J/kg CAPE developing over the Northern Sac Valley
later this morning with increasing instability spreading
southward in the Central Valley and east towards the foothills
this afternoon. Shear profiles do support potential for rotating
updrafts although they are not as favorable as with the system
that moved through Wednesday. Highs today expected only in the
lower 60s for the Central Valley with generally 40s to 50s for the
mountains and foothills.
Upper trough and associated cold pool aloft moves through tonight
for continued shower threat then weak ridging Sunday. This will be
short lived as the next colder deeper system approaches NorCal.
Some model differences exist with timing but in general precip looks
to begin over the Coastal and Western Shasta mountains Monday
morning...spreading south and east over the entire CWA by the
afternoon. Snow levels could drop to near the upper foothills
with this system as it moves through Mon/Tue. Also, potential for
more thunderstorms, with small hail, looks to be a good bet on
Tue. Well below normal temps early next week with highs only in
the 50s for the Central Valley with 30s to 40s in the
mountains/foothills on Tuesday.
.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)
Short-wave ridging forecast to move over NorCal Wednesday behind
departing cold upper low moving into the desert SW. This will
result in decreasing POPS for the region mid-week along with
milder temperatures. Forecast uncertainty increases the second
half of next week as models show little consistency in handling of
the next trough forecast to potentially affect the region later
Thu-Sat, so will continue to mention chance category POPS for now.
&&
.Aviation...
Pacific frontal sys moves swd thru NorCal today. For the valley...
VFR conds expected next 24 hrs exc areas of MVFR cigs and sly sfc
wind gusts 20-30 kts ahead of frontal passage thru abt 20Z. Sct
-shra with isold TSRA behind front for this aftn and evening. Over
nrn Siernev...wdsprd IFR conds RA/SN cont thru 12Z Sun. Sn lvls
055-065 this morning...lowering to 040-045 aft 00Z Sun.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until 5 am pdt Sunday above 5500 feet in the
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada...Western Plumas county/Lassen
Park.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1014 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT MOVES EAST THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES JUST OFF
THE NJ COAST APPEARS TO STARTING NOW STARTING ITS EASTWARD DRIFT AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP. DEFORMATION PCPN BAND OVER EASTERN
PA SHOULD START MOVING SOON AS WELL...THOUGH ITS BEEN STATIONARY
ALL SHIFT.
UNTIL THE DEFORMATION BAND GETS HERE...IT`S MOSTLY -DZ. LATEST 23Z
HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IS VERY STRANGE IN HOW IT DISSIPATES
THE BAND AND THEN REFORMS IT OVER FAR WESTERN CT/LI AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 00Z RAP HAS THIS SAME IDEA AS DOES THE 00Z NAM. THIS IS
TROUBLESOME AS THIS SUGGESTS ENOUGH OMEGA FOR COLUMN COOLING AND A
WINTRY MIX. FORTUNATELY...SFC TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT THERE CAN
NOT FORESEE ANY TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION.
GUSTY NLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRES SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND. TEMPS MAY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK BY MONDAY
MORNING IN AREAS WELL INLAND...OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT MAY LINGER
ACROSS FAR PORTIONS OF SE CT UNTIL MID AFTN.
SKIES CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST. TIGHT
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN N WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH. MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
CLEAR AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS...LOWS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS OUTLYING
AREAS...AND WILL OTHERWISE BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...AND HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE STILL ISSUES WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH.
SO WHILE THE DETAILS REMAIN IN QUESTION...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
WE WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OHD TUE WITH THE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTN. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SE CANADA MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT OVER US DURING THE DAY WED. A
BROAD RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE WEST.
AT THE SFC...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUE NIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A WAA PATTERN
COULD PROMOTE A FEW MORE ON WED...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED CHC POPS
TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK IS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO SE CANADA ON SAT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N ON THU WHICH MAY SUPPRESS ANY WAA RAINS
TO THE S. HAVE TRIED TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE POPS THU
NIGHT. FRI MAY END UP BEING DRY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES CLOSER. THERE ARE
IMPLICATIONS OF SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT S OF LI FRI NIGHT. THE
EC IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE FROPA ON SAT WITH DRY CONDS RETURNING
BY AFTN. THE GFS KEEPS IT WET THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY SFC FLOW PREVAILS AS THE LOW
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AND
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TAFS THIS EVENING AS CIGS SIT AROUND
1000 FT. EXPECT FAIRLY STEADY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR THE NY METRO...A HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST WITH ASOS GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 KT ON MONDAY MOST OF THE DAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NGT-FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 10-13 FT AND
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MON...HOWEVER DON`T FEEL IT WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO ISSUE
A GALE WARNING.
WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA MONDAY EVENING...BUT OCEAN
SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 4-6 FT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SCA MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO TUE...OTHERWISE A
WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL FAVOR TRANQUIL CONDS. AN
INCREASING ELY FLOW FRI NIGHT MAY BRING SEAS TO SCA LEVELS BY SAT
MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF QPF EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
RIVERS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY.
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED BEFORE WEEKS END.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH A NEW MOON AND NEARBY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...TIDES ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. TIDES WILL APPROACH
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS WITH THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE. THIS
IS OCCURRING IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE OCEAN AS OF 01-02 UTC.
HIGH TIDE ON LI SOUND IS AROUND 04 UTC. NO SPECIAL PRODUCTS ARE
PLANNED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA IS CURRENTLY BROADCASTING. THE TRANSMITTER IS
CURRENTLY BEING TESTED TO DETERMINE IF RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCE
CONTINUES ON THE U.S. COAST GUARD CHANNEL 16 TRANSMITTER FOR
INTERNATIONAL DISTRESS...SAFETY AND RESCUE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OKX/NYCNWRUPDATE
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...24/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...24/MPS
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES OFF ATLANTIC CITY NJ WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COLDER AIR
DRAWN SOUTH BY INCREASING WINDS WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO A
WINTRY MIX NORTH AND WEST OF BOSTON. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE FILLED IN MORE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED SO HAVE
UPDATED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS TREND. USED A BLEND OF THE
LATEST NAM AND HRRR THROUGH 06Z FOR THE POPS. AT THIS
POINT...SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR...THOUGH A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NJ COAST WILL MOVE
EAST AND PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
NIGHT AND BE SUFFICIENT FOR A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. THE LACK OF
A DEEP LIFT MECHANISM AND LACK OF TROPICAL CONNECTION SUGGEST MUCH
LIGHTER RAIN THAN LAST NIGHT. WE WILL ALLOW THE EXISTING FLOOD
WATCH TO CONTINUE TO EXPIRATION AT 8 PM...THIS WILL ALLOW EXISTING
RAIN WATER TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE INITIALLY SUFFICIENT FOR RAIN. BUT
COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH BY NORTH WINDS FEEDING TOWARD THE
LOW. THIS WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SNOW IN THE HILLS OF NORTHERN
WORCESTER COUNTY OR THE BERKSHIRES...BUT THE LINGERING WARM AIR
FORECAST AT 850 MB AND 800 MB WORKS AGAINST THIS. ICE AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST AT 1/4" OR LESS...AND LINE UP WITH THE EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. NO CHANGES TO THIS HEADLINE. THE HEADLINE COVERS
SRN NH WEST OF MANCHESTER AND NASHUA...NORTHERN WORCESTER
COUNTY...FRANKLIN CO...AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKS.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR. SURFACE OBS SHOW WIND GUSTS TO 31
KNOTS AT BVY AND 38 KNOTS OVER MASSACHUSETTS BAY. MODEL DATA SHOWS
NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET AGL...WE
MOVED GUSTS CLOSER TO THIS VALUE. WE USED A BLEND OF MODELS
INCLUDING THE RAP...AND BUMPED VALUES UP ABOUT 5 KNOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. STILL A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 1-2
MB/HOUR. WINDS ALOFT SHOW A GUST POTENTIAL OF 25-30 KNOTS OVER
LAND...AND 30-40 KNOTS ALONG THE EAST MASS COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.
CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER US MUCH OF
THE DAY...WITH A SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT
DIMINISHING WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS COME FROM A BLEND OF MODEL DATA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MAINLY DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND
OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS AT THE SURFACE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS MID
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES. OVERALL IT LOOKS MAINLY
DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A LOW PROB OF
A FEW SHOWERS WED WITH A FROPA. COULD SEE A FEW DAYS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WED/THU THEN TRENDING COOLER BY FRI AS LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW DEVELOPS. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS COMPLEX SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION BUT
OBVIOUSLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS. IT DOES APPEAR MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL BE RAIN BUT THERE COULD BE SOME WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE INTERIOR.
TUESDAY...
SHARP MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO NEW ENG FROM THE WEST.
CLOUDS MAY STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS E COASTAL MA AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE PT-MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
STILL BREEZY IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS THEN
DIMINISHING WIND THROUGH THE DAY. MILDEST TEMPS INTO THE 50S WILL
BE IN THE CT VALLEY WITH COOLEST IN THE LOW/MID 40S E COASTAL MA
AND CAPE/ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SNE. A DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WEST MOVES INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
GENERALLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE
NORTH...BUT MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
LATER FRI. WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS HIGH PRES SHOULD SLOW
ONSET OF PRECIP. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU BUT
COOLING FRI...ESPECIALLY EAST AS NE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT DETAILS UNCERTAIN.
PRIMARY LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR THE S COAST. PTYPE MAINLY RAIN...BUT THERE IS SOME
COLDER AIR BELOW 850 MB WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
ACROSS DISTANT INTERIOR.
SUNDAY...
LATEST GFS/ECMWF MOVE SYSTEM INTO THE MARITIMES WITH DRIER NW FLOW
DEVELOPING SO IT LOOKS DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT
BRINGS ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN INTO OUR AREA. IT WILL ALSO DRAW
COLDER AIR SOUTH...WHICH WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET IN SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHERN MASS. THIS AREA INCLUDES MHT
AND ORH. FARTHER SOUTH WE EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH A GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND...WITH MVFR/IFR CT
VALLEY.
MONDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND POSSIBLY TO ORH. IFR WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR IN RI/EASTERN MASS/SRN NH. DEPENDING ON HOW SLOWLY
THE STORM MOVES EAST...IFR COULD LINGER AT HYA AND ACK AND THE
OUTER CAPE. INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY.
WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL SHOULD REACH 35 KNOTS EAST OF WORCESTER AND
40-50 KNOTS ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS...BOS/FMH/HYA/ACK WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS.
MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE MASS EAST COAST
SURFACE AND ALOFT...THESE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LINGERING MVFR
CIGS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...VFR AT BOS-PVD AND NORTH/WEST.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF A FEW
HOURS OF FZRA TONIGHT INTO MON AM.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE
MORNING ACROSS E MA AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS...OTHERWISE VFR. N
WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE MORNING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS DURING WED.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT...
STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CAPE ANN AND
THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN THIS AREA HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS.
WE HAVE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING...AND EXPANDED
IT INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. BUILDING SEAS IN THE
EXPOSED WATERS WITH HEIGHTS OF 5-10 FEET. VSBY REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG.
MONDAY...
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20-30 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 35-40
KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 5-10 FEET IN THE EXPOSED
WATERS...AND 10-15 FEET NEAR STELLWAGEN BANK. RAIN/FOG/POOR VSBYS
TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT...
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS BUT WITH GALES CONTINUING ON THE
EASTERN MASS WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND 10-15 FOOT SEAS EAST
OF OUTER CAPE COD.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STILL MAY SEE MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS TUE MORNING...BUT TREND WILL BE
DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS. 15 FT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER WATERS EAST OF
CAPE COD IN THE MORNING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WED BECOMING NORTHERLY
THU THEN E/NE FRIDAY. LINGERING SCA SEAS WED MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS WILL SUBSIDE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL RANGED FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
OF THE HIGHEST TOTALS WERE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...WHERE A
HANDFUL OF REPORTS OF 5 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN WERE RECEIVED. THE
BIGGEST OF THE FLOOD EVENTS WAS URBAN FLASH FLOODING IN THE FALL
RIVER/NEW BEDFORD AREA AND VARIOUS COMMUNITIES IN SOUTHEAST MA/RI.
IN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD WATERS
WILL LIKELY TAKE INTO THIS EVENING TO FULLY SUBSIDE.
MANY SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE CRESTED BUT OTHERS ARE STILL
RISING...SO CONTINUING WITH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM AND CONTINUING
TO MONITOR. SEVERAL RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST
TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THESE INCLUDE THE ASSABET RIVER AT
MAYNARD...PAWTUXET RIVER IN CRANSTON...AND THE PAWCATUCK RIVER AT
WOOD RIVER JUNCTION AND WESTERLY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES...OR GO TO THE PAGE
HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/FORECASTS.PHP?WFO=BOX
FOR SMALL STREAMS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF PURCHADE BROOK
FLOODING WOLOSKI PARK IN MIDDLEBORO...WHICH WOULD ISOLATE SOME
HOMES.
AT THIS TIME...8 PM STILL SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE EXPIRATION TIME
FOR THE FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAIN IS LONG GONE AND WE ARE MAINLY
MONITORING RUNOFF/DRAINAGE AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING BEYOND TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT MAY BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS ON THE LOWEST END OF THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER. AT MIDDLE HADDAM...THE LATEST FORECAST CREST IS JUST SHORT OF
FLOOD STAGE FOR THIS TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONLY SOME SPLASHOVER OCCURRED AT THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE SHORTLY
BEFORE NOON THIS MORNING WITH A SURGE THAT APPROACHED 1 FOOT.
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WERE INCREASING THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE MA EAST COAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING THAT THIS WILL GENERATE A 1 FOOT
SURGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND UP TO A 1.5 FOOT SURGE AROUND NOON ON
MONDAY. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL BE BUILDING AS HIGH AS 8 TO 12 FEET BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME...WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO DUE
NORTH WHICH WILL MAKE THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE AND CAPE
COD BAY.
SO...EXPECTING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND MIDNIGHT ON THE EAST
COAST AND AROUND NOON FROM SCITUATE TO CAPE COD AROUND NOON MONDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION
THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE MA EAST COAST.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
008-009-026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ007-015-
016-019.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
MAZ019-022.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ231>234.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-
237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
711 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF ATLANTIC CITY NJ WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND OUT TO SEA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COLDER
AIR DRAWN SOUTH BY INCREASING WINDS WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION
TO A WINTRY MIX NORTH AND WEST OF BOSTON. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
710 PM UPDATE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS SNE AND ARE LIFTING N
ACROSS THE REGION AS THEY ROTATE AROUND MID LEVEL LOW TO THE
SOUTH. HRRR INDICATING THESE SHOWERS WILL ROTATE ACROSS N CT AND
CENTRAL/W MA THROUGH THE EVENING. GOOD MID LEVEL COOLING TONIGHT
SO SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND HRRR FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NJ COAST WILL MOVE EAST AND PASS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT AND BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. THE LACK OF A DEEP LIFT MECHANISM
AND LACK OF TROPICAL CONNECTION SUGGEST MUCH LIGHTER RAIN THAN
LAST NIGHT. WE WILL ALLOW THE EXISTING FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE TO
EXPIRATION AT 8 PM...THIS WILL ALLOW EXISTING RAIN WATER TO WORK
ITS WAY THROUGH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE INITIALLY SUFFICIENT FOR RAIN. BUT
COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH BY NORTH WINDS FEEDING TOWARD THE
LOW. THIS WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SNOW IN THE HILLS OF NORTHERN
WORCESTER COUNTY OR THE BERKSHIRES...BUT THE LINGERING WARM AIR
FORECAST AT 850 MB AND 800 MB WORKS AGAINST THIS. ICE AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST AT 1/4" OR LESS...AND LINE UP WITH THE EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. NO CHANGES TO THIS HEADLINE. THE HEADLINE COVERS
SRN NH WEST OF MANCHESTER AND NASHUA...NORTHERN WORCESTER
COUNTY...FRANKLIN CO...AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKS.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR. SURFACE OBS SHOW WIND GUSTS TO 31
KNOTS AT BVY AND 38 KNOTS OVER MASSACHUSETTS BAY. MODEL DATA SHOWS
NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET AGL...WE
MOVED GUSTS CLOSER TO THIS VALUE. WE USED A BLEND OF MODELS
INCLUDING THE RAP...AND BUMPED VALUES UP ABOUT 5 KNOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. STILL A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 1-2
MB/HOUR. WINDS ALOFT SHOW A GUST POTENTIAL OF 25-30 KNOTS OVER
LAND...AND 30-40 KNOTS ALONG THE EAST MASS COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.
CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER US MUCH OF
THE DAY...WITH A SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT
DIMINISHING WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS COME FROM A BLEND OF MODEL DATA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MAINLY DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
* UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND
OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS AT THE SURFACE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS MID
LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES. OVERALL IT LOOKS MAINLY
DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A LOW PROB OF
A FEW SHOWERS WED WITH A FROPA. COULD SEE A FEW DAYS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WED/THU THEN TRENDING COOLER BY FRI AS LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW DEVELOPS. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS COMPLEX SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION BUT
OBVIOUSLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS. IT DOES APPEAR MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL BE RAIN BUT THERE COULD BE SOME WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE INTERIOR.
TUESDAY...
SHARP MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO NEW ENG FROM THE WEST.
CLOUDS MAY STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS E COASTAL MA AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE PT-MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
STILL BREEZY IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS THEN
DIMINISHING WIND THROUGH THE DAY. MILDEST TEMPS INTO THE 50S WILL
BE IN THE CT VALLEY WITH COOLEST IN THE LOW/MID 40S E COASTAL MA
AND CAPE/ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SNE. A DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WEST MOVES INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
GENERALLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE
NORTH...BUT MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
LATER FRI. WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS HIGH PRES SHOULD SLOW
ONSET OF PRECIP. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU BUT
COOLING FRI...ESPECIALLY EAST AS NE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
COMPLEX SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT DETAILS UNCERTAIN.
PRIMARY LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR THE S COAST. PTYPE MAINLY RAIN...BUT THERE IS SOME
COLDER AIR BELOW 850 MB WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
ACROSS DISTANT INTERIOR.
SUNDAY...
LATEST GFS/ECMWF MOVE SYSTEM INTO THE MARITIMES WITH DRIER NW FLOW
DEVELOPING SO IT LOOKS DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT
BRINGS ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN INTO OUR AREA. IT WILL ALSO DRAW
COLDER AIR SOUTH...WHICH WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET IN SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHERN MASS. THIS AREA INCLUDES MHT
AND ORH. FARTHER SOUTH WE EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH A GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND...WITH MVFR/IFR CT
VALLEY.
MONDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE CT VALLEY AND POSSIBLY TO ORH. IFR WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR IN RI/EASTERN MASS/SRN NH. DEPENDING ON HOW SLOWLY
THE STORM MOVES EAST...IFR COULD LINGER AT HYA AND ACK AND THE
OUTER CAPE. INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY.
WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL SHOULD REACH 35 KNOTS EAST OF WORCESTER AND
40-50 KNOTS ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS...BOS/FMH/HYA/ACK WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS.
MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE MASS EAST COAST
SURFACE AND ALOFT...THESE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LINGERING MVFR
CIGS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...VFR AT BOS-PVD AND NORTH/WEST.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF A FEW
HOURS OF FZRA TONIGHT INTO MON AM.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN THE
MORNING ACROSS E MA AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS...OTHERWISE VFR. N
WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE MORNING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS DURING WED.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT...
STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CAPE ANN AND
THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN THIS AREA HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS.
WE HAVE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING...AND EXPANDED
IT INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. BUILDING SEAS IN THE
EXPOSED WATERS WITH HEIGHTS OF 5-10 FEET. VSBY REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG.
MONDAY...
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 20-30 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 35-40
KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH 5-10 FEET IN THE EXPOSED
WATERS...AND 10-15 FEET NEAR STELLWAGEN BANK. RAIN/FOG/POOR VSBYS
TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT...
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS BUT WITH GALES CONTINUING ON THE
EASTERN MASS WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND 10-15 FOOT SEAS EAST
OF OUTER CAPE COD.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STILL MAY SEE MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS
ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS TUE MORNING...BUT TREND WILL BE
DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS. 15 FT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER WATERS EAST OF
CAPE COD IN THE MORNING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WED BECOMING NORTHERLY
THU THEN E/NE FRIDAY. LINGERING SCA SEAS WED MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS WILL SUBSIDE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL RANGED FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
OF THE HIGHEST TOTALS WERE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...WHERE A HANDFULL
OF REPORTS OF 5 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN WERE RECEIVED. THE BIGGEST OF
THE FLOOD EVENTS WAS URBAN FLASH FLOODING IN THE FALL RIVER/NEW
BEDFORD AREA AND VARIOUS COMMUNITIES IN SOUTHEAST MA/RI. IN PORTIONS
OF THIS AREA...URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODWATERS WILL LIKELY TAKE
INTO THIS EVENING TO FULLY SUBSIDE.
MANY SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE CRESTED BUT OTHERS ARE STILL
RISING...SO CONTINUING WITH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM AND CONTINUING
TO MONITOR. SEVERAL RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST
TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THESE INCLUDE THE ASSABET RIVER AT
MAYNARD...PAWTUXET RIVER IN CRANSTON...AND THE PAWCATUCK RIVER AT
WOOD RIVER JUNCTION AND WESTERLY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES...OR GO TO THE PAGE
HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/FORECASTS.PHP?WFO=BOX
FOR SMALL STREAMS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF PURCHADE BROOK
FLOODING WOLOSKI PARK IN MIDDLEBORO...WHICH WOULD ISOLATE SOME
HOMES.
AT THIS TIME...8 PM STILL SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE EXPIRATION TIME
FOR THE FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAIN IS LONG GONE AND WE ARE MAINLY
MONITORING RUNOFF/DRAINAGE AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING BEYOND TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT MAY BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS ON THE LOWEST END OF THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER. AT MIDDLE HADDAM...THE LATEST FORECAST CREST IS JUST SHORT OF
FLOOD STAGE FOR THIS TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONLY SOME SPLASHOVER OCCURRED AT THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE SHORTLY
BEFORE NOON THIS MORNING WITH A SURGE THAT APPROACHED 1 FOOT.
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WERE INCREASING THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE MA EAST COAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING THAT THIS WILL GENERATE A 1 FOOT
SURGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND UP TO A 1.5 FOOT SURGE AROUND NOON ON
MONDAY. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL BE BUILDING AS HIGH AS 8 TO 12 FEET BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME...WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO DUE
NORTH WHICH WILL MAKE THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE AND CAPE
COD BAY.
SO...EXPECTING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND MIDNIGHT ON THE EAST
COAST AND AROUND NOON FROM SCITUATE TO CAPE COD AROUND NOON MONDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION
THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE MA EAST COAST.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-
026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ002>004-
008-009-026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
MAZ019-022.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ231>234.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-
237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
416 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EARLY SPRING STORM WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BECOME QUITE DIVERSE WITH THE COOLER VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN FACT...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT A
WINTRY MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TO EVOLVE WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE RESULTED IN HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS AROUND 50F AND EVEN INTO THE TERRAIN OF THE BERKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE LOWER 50S HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD WAS
APPROACHING THE MASS PIKE WITH SOLID AREA OF RAIN ALONG THE I84
CORRIDOR AND ALL OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL
EXPAND AND INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING PER
THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. WITH RATHER MILD
TEMPERATURES...MOST OF THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIP SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE LOW LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW FROM THE NORTH INCREASES
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING UPSTREAM THE TEMPS WERE INTO THE MID 30S WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 20S. SO NOT THAT COLD OF AN AIRMASS BUT WET
BULB PROCESS COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AS WE
WILL HOLD ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. CHANCES
FOR WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
GLENS FALLS REGION AS ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE HEADLINES ARE
POSSIBLE IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE TO WARM.
AS FOR RAINFALL...IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT...H850-700 FGEN
FIELDS INCREASING...PWAT ANOMOLIES REMAIN 1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST JET ALL POINT
TOWARD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. PER CSTAR RESEARCH...THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RESEMBLES THAT OF A HP NEUTRAL CUT OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS
HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE FOR FLOODING ACROSS OUR SERVICE AREA. WE WILL
RETAIN THE FLOOD WATCH AS THE COMBINATION OF RUN OFF /NEARLY
FROZEN GROUND DESPITE THE FIRST COUPLE OF INCHES LIKELY DEFROSTED
AT THIS TIME/ AND POTENTIAL FROM ICE JAMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
BECOME NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO RACE NORTHWARD WHICH
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AND SOME
LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE DACKS ARE EXPECTED. GLOBAL MODEL
TRENDS ARE FAVORING A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND OF
ENHANCED PRECIP TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN
DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP WITH PARTIAL THICKNESS SCHEME FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF POINTING TOWARD A MIXTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
SUNDAY NIGHT...CONSENSUS IS NOW FAVORING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
DEFORMATION AXIS OF PRECIP TO EVOLVE AND IMPACT THE CENTRAL PART
OF OUR REGION FROM SOUTHERN VT...CAPITAL DISTRICT...EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CATSKILL REGION. EQUALLY AS CHALLENGING WILL BE THE
THERMAL PROFILES AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
COOL OFF TO ALLOW FOR THE PRECIP TO MIX WITH SLEET AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THIS EVENT PERIOD WILL NEED TO
MONITORED VERY CLOSELY WITH ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW FAVORING THE DEFORMATION
AXIS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE HUDSON IN THE MORNING AND CLEARING OUR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES
POINT TOWARD A WINTRY MIXTURE / SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN WITH
WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WE WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH
SOME RAIN BEFORE ENDING. AS NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE HUDSON
INCREASE AND MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO AROUND H900...MID
20-MID 30 KTS OF WIND COULD MIX DOWN.
AS FOR MOS GUIDANCE...WE WILL FAVOR CLOSER VALUES TO THE
MAV/ECMWF.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS ON MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S /SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN/ WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES CAN BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE HOLDING IN AND KEEPING IT DRY...THE 12Z GFS IMPLIES THAT THE
SYSTEM CAN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS /MAINLY FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN/. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...AND ONLY ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND AT NIGHT. MIN TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
30S...AND MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS BRIEF...AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN LATER ON
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. NORTHERN OR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY SEE
SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP...OTHERWISE P-TYPE WILL BE
RAIN...AS TEMPS LOOKS SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS FOR THURS/FRI NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 30S
AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR FRI AND SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
SLOWLY MOVE UP THE NORTHEAST COAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE VALLEY
SITES...WITH HIGH END MVFR AT KPSF DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE KEEPS LOWER CIGS IN PLACE.
RAIN IS CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO REACH KPOU...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.
SHORTLY AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS...FLYING CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
VSBYS/CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE RAIN
WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY...WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE RAIN WILL START TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING VSBYS TO RETURN TO 4-6 SM...WITH JUST SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CIGS MAY
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IFR FOR A BIT INTO EARLY IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY /ESP
AT KPSF/...BUT LOOK TO IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR SOMETIME DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS FOR ALL
SITES. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT AT KALB...AS AIR
IS FUNNELED DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY. N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS LOOK
TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA...FZRA...SLEET.
MON:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE COASTAL
SYSTEM. SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO OCCUR NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD
IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACK REGION
STARTING AT 8 PM TONIGHT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED
WITH SNOWMELT. IN ADDITION...ICE BREAK UP AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TOWARDS LONG ISLAND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM THE GUIDANCE SHOWING ONE
TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MUCH OF THIS
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAINFALL...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
PRECIP TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OR SNOWFALL BEFORE ENDING ACROSS
THE REGION.
CURRENT NERFC RIVER FORECASTS SHOW RISING LEVELS TO NEAR OR ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RISES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HOUSATONIC...HOOSIC...RONDOUT CREEK
WILLIAMS RIVER AND METTAWEE BASINS. ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOW
FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...THE CHALLENGE IS ICE BREAKING UP ON
LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS AS WELL...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE
ICE JAMS IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME...SOME MINOR URBAN...LOW LYING...AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
COULD POTENTIALLY OCCUR AS WELL. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE
ISSUES WOULD BE FROM THE MOHAWK BASIN SOUTH AND EAST.
DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING RIVERS AND STREAMS TO SLOWLY RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HOW COLD HAS MARCH 2014 BEEN? THROUGH THE 28TH THE AVERAGE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN 26.4 DEGREES WHICH IS 8.1 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ONLY 5 DAYS THIS MONTH AS THE AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL.
TOP 10 COLDEST MARCHES - ALBANY NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1820.
1) 23.6 DEGREES 1885
2) 24.6 DEGREES 1863
3) 24.7 DEGREES 1875
4) 25.3 DEGREES 1843
5) 26.0 DEGREES 1888
6) 26.1 DEGREES 1916
7) 26.2 DEGREES 1869
8) 26.5 DEGREES 1960
9) 26.8 DEGREES 1940
10) 27.0 DEGREES 1836
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ043-083.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS STAFF
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
940 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)..
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP AND SHARP
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FEATURE EXITING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS
TROUGH AXIS IS NOW OFF TO OUR EAST ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOWARD THE REGION AND WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PENINSULA FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE DEVELOPING
STACKED RIDGING AND VERY DRY COLUMN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
COLUMN WILL ENSURE A CONTINUED DRY AND FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO START
OUT THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE EVENING KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE IS VERY
VERY DRY BELOW 300MB MEASURING A PW OF ONLY AROUND 0.2". THIS IS A
LOW VALUE FOR FLORIDA AT ANY TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT THIS VALUE IS
GETTING DOWN TOWARD THE MINIMUM VALUE FOR PW EVER RECORDED FOR THIS
DATE. GOES TO SHOW YOU...EVEN WHEN THE WEATHER SEEMS QUIET...SOME
INTERESTING THINGS CAN STILL HAPPEN.
THE ONLY MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS IN THE VERY UPPER LEVELS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STRETCHED ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WE SAW PERIOD OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY
AND THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. THESE PERIOD OF FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE MOST CIRRUS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. EITHER WAY...THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR ALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP OVER
THE NATURE COAST WHERE 40S...AND EVEN A FEW UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE
BY SUNRISE. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD TAMPA BAY AND SOUTHWARD...UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER QUICKLY
DURING MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND WARMER SPOTS REACHING THE LOWER 80S TO THE SOUTH OF I-4.
WILL NOT GO INTO MUCH DETAIL...BUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST A
LONG STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER LASTING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ENJOY!
&&
.AVIATION...
31/00-01/00Z; VFR PREVAIL. NW WINDS DIMINISH AND VEER TO NE THEN
EASTERLY MON...ALTHOUGH A SEA BREEZE MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT SOME
COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS AROUND EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL
OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL...BUT THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX FOR MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINES THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 51 77 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 54 82 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 51 79 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 50 77 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 39 79 42 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 58 77 63 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
930 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WX PATTERN OVERNIGHT AS A DEEP HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE LWR MS VALLEY TO THE WRN GOMEX DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A ZONAL H30-H20 FLOW. EVNG SOUNDINGS REFLECT THE
POSITION OF THE RIDGE WELL: DEEP NWRLY FLOW PUSHING A VERY
DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ACRS THE REGION...PWAT VALUES AOB 0.3" WITH AN
8-10C SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H95-H80 LYR.
NO SIG WX OVERNIGHT AS THE LCL PGRAD WEAKENS...ALLOWING SFC WNDS TO
DIMINISH TO ARND 5MPH. THE LIGHT WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH A SCT-BKN
UPR LVL CLOUD DECK PUSHING ACRS THE AREA TO KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE
L/M50S...BUT ANY CHANGES TO THE AFTN PACKAGE WOULD BE LARGELY
TRANSPARENT. NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 01/00Z...VFR ALL SITES...CIGS ABV FL120. SFC WNDSHFT FM N/NW TO
E/NE AOB 10KTS BTWN 31/15Z-31/19Z.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES 15-20KT SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS CONTINUE
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT OBS FROM THE LCL DATA BUOY/C-MAN
NETWORK SHOW ONLY SETTLEMENT POINT WITH SFC WINDS ARND 15KTS WITH
GUSTS ARND 20KTS. THIS SUGGESTS CONDITIONS HAVE DROPPED BLO
CAUTIONARY LVLS ACRS THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT MAY STILL PERSIST ACRS
THE OFFSHORE. SEAS RUNNING 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT OFFSHORE...
DOMINANT PDS ARND 7SEC.
SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A SFC HI
PRES RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/CENTRAL GOMEX DRIFTS ACRS THE ERN
GOMEX/FL PENINSULA. CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL DISCONTINUE IT FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
134 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.AVIATION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
AFFECT KPBI AND KAPF TAF SITES BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z...KFXE AND KFLL
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z...AND REST OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 01Z AND
O3Z. SO HAVE DELAY THE VCTS UNTIL THE ABOVE TIMES FOR THE MENTION
TAF SITES. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS. SO HAVE PUT IN VCSH 2 HOURS AHEAD
AND BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
OVER THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE STORMS WITH SPEEDS DOWN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE VIS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE TAF
SITES WITH CEILINGS IN THE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE CEILING AND
VIS COULD FALL INTO THE IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LINE OF STORMS...BUT WILL MAKE ADMIN TO THE TAF SITES ONCE THE
LINE OF STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE TAF SITES.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014/
UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. HEAVY CLOUD FROM THUNDERSTORM
DEBRIS FIELD CURRENTLY COVERS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPIEX IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF NAPLES AND WAS MOVING VERY LITTLE.
THE MAIN TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES WHICH IS GENERATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE AFFECTING CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
DOES SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN WEAK. THE KEY ASPECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS HOW MUCH CLEARING AND WARMING WILL TAKE
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF CLOUDS THINNING AT
THIS TIME AND THEREFORE LOWERED THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN BAND FROM THE NORTHEAST
GULF ARRIVES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THIS IS WHAT THE HRRR IS SHOWING
WITH NOT MUCH HAPPENING THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z AND SO FOLLOWED THIS
GUIDANCE.
&&
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014/
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES TO SWING FROM A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION THIS MORNING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER THE TAF SITES
BEFORE A THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 18Z.
THE VIS AND CEILINGS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IN
THE VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUT WHEN THEY DO DEVELOP AND PUSH
THROUGH THE TAF SITES...THEY COULD FALL INTO THE IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
LATEST MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE
PUSHING TO THE EAST AND WILL AFFECT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. BETTER DYNAMICS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE BEST FORCING ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE WELL
AFTER DARK. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER BUOYANT
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG.
THEREFORE BELIEVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA COMPLETELY BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ALLOWING
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH VIRTUALLY ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LOUISIANA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL INITIALLY JUST KEEP WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. BY MID MORNING, CIGS
WILL LOWER, BUT SHOULD STILL BE GENERALLY MVFR, IF NOT VFR. THERE
WILL ALSO BE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE MORNING.
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM MID
DAY ON, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE THEM IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICKUP JUST AFTER SUNRISE, OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS. THEY WILL TURN MID DAY TO
THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
IN THE EVENING HOURS, THE WINDS WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 KTS.
MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING TURNING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH A BRIEF CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEAS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY AS WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 69 79 57 / 50 50 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 72 81 65 / 40 50 10 0
MIAMI 83 72 81 63 / 40 50 10 0
NAPLES 82 70 79 55 / 40 50 10 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
923 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. HEAVY CLOUD FROM THUNDERSTORM
DEBRIS FIELD CURRENTLY COVERS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPIEX IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF NAPLES AND WAS MOVING VERY LITTLE.
THE MAIN TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES WHICH IS GENERATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE AFFECTING CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
DOES SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN WEAK. THE KEY ASPECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS HOW MUCH CLEARING AND WARMING WILL TAKE
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF CLOUDS THINNING AT
THIS TIME AND THEREFORE LOWERED THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN BAND FROM THE NORTHEAST
GULF ARRIVES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THIS IS WHAT THE HRRR IS SHOWING
WITH NOT MUCH HAPPENING THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z AND SO FOLLOWED THIS
GUIDANCE.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014/
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES TO SWING FROM A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION THIS MORNING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER THE TAF SITES
BEFORE A THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 18Z.
THE VIS AND CEILINGS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES WILL REMAIN IN
THE VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUT WHEN THEY DO DEVELOP AND PUSH
THROUGH THE TAF SITES...THEY COULD FALL INTO THE IFR CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
LATEST MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE
PUSHING TO THE EAST AND WILL AFFECT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. BETTER DYNAMICS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE BEST FORCING ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE WELL
AFTER DARK. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER BUOYANT
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG.
THEREFORE BELIEVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA COMPLETELY BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ALLOWING
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH VIRTUALLY ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LOUISIANA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL INITIALLY JUST KEEP WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. BY MID MORNING, CIGS
WILL LOWER, BUT SHOULD STILL BE GENERALLY MVFR, IF NOT VFR. THERE
WILL ALSO BE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE MORNING.
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM MID
DAY ON, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE THEM IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICKUP JUST AFTER SUNRISE, OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS. THEY WILL TURN MID DAY TO
THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
IN THE EVENING HOURS, THE WINDS WILL BE MORE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 KTS.
MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING TURNING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH A BRIEF CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEAS ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY AS WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
605 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 09 UTC regional surface analysis continued to be largely
dominated by mesoscale features. The wake low analyzed in South GA
earlier tonight has weakened, and a new meso high (induced by a cold
pool from the MCS to our west) has developed in the western FL
Panhandle. The strong, well-organized MCS at the beginning of our
shift has weakened and now appears rather sloppy on satellite &
radar imagery. The storms that moved into our western zones have
been mostly elevated, and this will likely continue until later this
morning when (if) there is some heating. The HRRR has been handling
the simulated reflectivity well so far and we have followed it
closely for this forecast update. Most of our local WRFs appears to
be too slow, so we have sped up the timing of the rain from our
earlier forecast. This means that most of the rain will end from
west to east this afternoon. Because of this faster solution, the
severe threat may be diminishing a bit, as the most of the storms
may be east of our forecast area by the time the boundary layer
destabilizes significantly. Still, we can`t rule out an isolated
severe storm given the strong winds and relatively steep lapse rates
aloft. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main threats, but we
can`t completely rule out an brief tornado.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
Deep layer ridging and a very dry airmass will build into the
region in the wake of the exiting upper trough and surface cold
front. Max temps will be near to above seasonal levels while min
temps will be cooler, especially Sunday night with nearly ideal
radiational cooling conditions setting up. Max temps will be in
the lower to mid 70s Sunday and upper 70s to near 80 on Monday.
Lows will be in the in the lower to mid 40s tonight and around 40
Sunday night.
.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Upper level ridging will stay in place over the southeastern
CONUS through Wednesday. Wednesday night, another shortwave trough
over the four corners region will amplify the upper level pattern,
developing a surface low over the southern Plains and an
associated cold front. As this system pushes eastward Thursday and
Friday, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase from west
to east across our forecast area.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday] Numerous SHRA and TSRA will be moving east
through the region today, mainly this morning. Gusty winds and poor
brief period of poor visibility are expected at all terminals. The
rain will end from west to east later this morning. Skies will be
clearing later this afternoon as the winds shift and become NW to
N.
&&
.Marine...
Winds and seas will increase from from west to east to advisory
levels from this evening to Sunday morning in the wake of an
exiting strong cold front. Conditions will improve by Sunday
afternoon with light winds and low seas for Monday through the
middle of next week.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Wet conditions are expected today. RH values may fall to locally
critical levels Sunday afternoon. However, at this time we don`t
think that ERC/fuel moisture values and/or wind speeds will be
sufficient for Red Flag warnings.
&&
.Hydrology...
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches were received over
Southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle...with 1 to 2 inches
elsewhere. An additional 0.50 TO 1 inch rainfall amounts are
expected across these areas today as a cold front pushes through.
Many area rivers remain in action stage and could possibly reach
minor flood stage. However, the latest forecast from the RFC keep
everything below flood stage.
For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 80 46 74 38 79 / 80 10 0 0 0
Panama City 75 47 72 47 75 / 80 0 0 0 0
Dothan 76 43 71 41 78 / 80 0 0 0 0
Albany 76 43 72 40 79 / 80 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 77 44 72 40 78 / 80 10 0 0 0
Cross City 79 47 74 40 78 / 70 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 74 48 70 44 73 / 70 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
Sunday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River
to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Sunday
for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin
FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...BARRY/BOLDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
646 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WELL PRONOUNCED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING STEADILY EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS
ROUGHLY ALIGNED FROM KOGB-KNBC-FPGK1 AT 29/21Z. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CAPPED AS
DRY SLOT ROTATES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE PROSPECTS
FOR DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION IS QUICKLY ENDING. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO
REDUCE THEM DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNSET. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA PER LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND H3R. ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE OR
TWO COULD OCCUR...THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THERE
HAS LIKELY ENDED. THE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS HAS ALSO ENDED AND THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.
SEA FOG CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 IN SOUTH CAROLINA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS
VEER WESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH.
LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE SHARPLY OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE GUSTING INTO THE
25-30 KT RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE AND
WILL BE MAINTAINED AS SUCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TAKES HOLD. 29/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
IN THE 4-8 KFT AGL LAYER SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN COUNTIES...
PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME CLOUDS THERE. ELSEWHERE...FULL SUNSHINE
SHOULD PREVAIL. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST...STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS STRONG AS 35-45 KT IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE ADIABATIC HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 70S IN SOUTHEAST GA WITH UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A 6-7 KFT MIXED LAYER DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE GUSTS 30-35 MPH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST AND NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH 29/12Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT NW WINDS WILL PERSIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC COUNTIES
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR INLAND WITH
LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...PROVIDING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 80S AT MANY LOCATIONS
TUESDAY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES/WITH LIGHT WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES. A FEW OF THE COOLER INLAND LOCATIONS COULD FALL TO
AROUND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE
WEEK...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEFORE
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS
DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND BECOME GUSTY AS
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. LOW END
20-23 KT GUSTS WILL BE FREQUENT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE 27-30 KT RANGE FROM MID SUNDAY MORNING ONWARD AS WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS
AT BOTH TERMINALS SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CANCELLED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE BEAUFORT COUNTY WATERS.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED THERE AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE BIGGEST IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR THE
LOCAL WATERS IS THE ONGOING DENSE FOG EVENT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
ZONES. COASTAL WEB CAMS SHOW THAT VISIBILITIES ARE STILL QUITE
POOR SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. THE FOG
WILL DISSIPATE ONCE WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE WESTERLY...WHICH WILL
CERTAINLY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN FOCUS
TURNS TO THE WESTERLY SURGE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE STRONG
COLD FRONT. BASED ON INCOMING MODEL DATA...I HAVE OPTED TO
INCREASE EXPECTED WINDS TO BE 25-30 KT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT. FURTHERMORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WITH
EXPECTED WINDS OF 30-35 KT. THE HARBOR WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AS WELL. WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT...THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED
GUST TO GALE FORCE IN THE HARBOR AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE FOR A DURATION LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
GALE WARNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND DRIVEN
IN NATURE.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST. GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AMZ374...FOLLOWED BY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS/SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
AND ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS...A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED AND THE PROBABILITY FOR
MARINE FLAGS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY...NORTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH AS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AVERAGES 20 TO 30 PERCENT. PER COLLABORATION WITH
FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCHES/RED FLAG WARNINGS
ARE NEEDED DUE TO ELEVATED FUEL MOISTURE PRODUCED BY RECENT
RAINFALL.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ330-350.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
543 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WELL PRONOUNCED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING STEADILY EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS
ROUGHLY ALIGNED FROM KOGB-KNBC-FPGK1 AT 29/21Z. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CAPPED AS
DRY SLOT ROTATES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE PROSPECTS
FOR DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION IS QUICKLY ENDING. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO
REDUCE THEM DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNSET. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA PER LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND H3R. ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE OR
TWO COULD OCCUR...THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THERE
HAS LIKELY ENDED. THE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS HAS ALSO ENDED AND THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.
SEA FOG CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 IN SOUTH CAROLINA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS
VEER WESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH.
LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE SHARPLY OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE GUSTING INTO THE
25-30 KT RANGE THROUGH SUNRISE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE AND
WILL BE MAINTAINED AS SUCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TAKES HOLD. 29/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
IN THE 4-8 KFT AGL LAYER SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN COUNTIES...
PERHAPS SUPPORTING SOME CLOUDS THERE. ELSEWHERE...FULL SUNSHINE
SHOULD PREVAIL. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST...STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS STRONG AS 35-45 KT IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE ADIABATIC HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 70S IN SOUTHEAST GA WITH UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A 6-7 KFT MIXED LAYER DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SURFACE GUSTS 30-35 MPH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST AND NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH 29/12Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT NW WINDS WILL PERSIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC COUNTIES
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR INLAND WITH
LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...PROVIDING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 80S AT MANY LOCATIONS
TUESDAY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES/WITH LIGHT WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES. A FEW OF THE COOLER INLAND LOCATIONS COULD FALL TO
AROUND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE
WEEK...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEFORE
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS
DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND BECOME GUSTY AS
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. LOW END
20-23 KT GUSTS WILL BE FREQUENT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE 27-30 KT RANGE FROM MID SUNDAY MORNING ONWARD AS WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 25-30 KNOTS
AT BOTH TERMINALS SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CANCELLED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE
WATERS. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED THERE AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE BIGGEST IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR THE
LOCAL WATERS IS THE ONGOING DENSE FOG EVENT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
ZONES. COASTAL WEB CAMS SHOW THAT VISIBILITIES ARE STILL QUITE
POOR SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. THE FOG
WILL DISSIPATE ONCE WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE WESTERLY...WHICH WILL
CERTAINLY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. THEN FOCUS
TURNS TO THE WESTERLY SURGE THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE STRONG
COLD FRONT. BASED ON INCOMING MODEL DATA...I HAVE OPTED TO
INCREASE EXPECTED WINDS TO BE 25-30 KT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT. FURTHERMORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WITH
EXPECTED WINDS OF 30-35 KT. THE HARBOR WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AS WELL. WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT...THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED
GUST TO GALE FORCE IN THE HARBOR AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE FOR A DURATION LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
GALE WARNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY WIND DRIVEN
IN NATURE.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST. GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AMZ374...FOLLOWED BY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS/SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
AND ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS...A WEAKENING PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED AND THE PROBABILITY FOR
MARINE FLAGS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY...NORTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH AS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AVERAGES 20 TO 30 PERCENT. PER COLLABORATION WITH
FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCHES/RED FLAG WARNINGS
ARE NEEDED DUE TO ELEVATED FUEL MOISTURE PRODUCED BY RECENT
RAINFALL.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ330-350.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1103 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW LARGELY PRECIPITATION
FREE AS THE HEAVY OVERNIGHT RAINFALL HAS ENDED AND PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST. THERE IS AN AREA OF WEAKENING RETURNS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST...BUT THIS HAS BEEN ON A DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD AMOUNT TO VERY LITTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY REVOLVES AROUND THE
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND ITS EVENTUAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
CURRENT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS...THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH
BIRMINGHAM AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD. THE
FRONT IS POSITIONED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHERE A DISTINCT
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT IS RAPIDLY IMPINGING IN FROM THE WEST.
THE DRIER AIR ALOFT...ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS NOW
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO GEORGIA AND WILL REACH OUR AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT IS NOW ENTERING CENTRAL GEORGIA.
IN ADDITION TO THE UNCERTAIN CLOUD COVER FORECAST TODAY...ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE AREA OF CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER
NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BACK TO OUR
WEST...RADAR IMAGERY IS PRIMARILY CLEAN SO IT APPEARS IT WILL
REQUIRE SOME SURFACE HEATING AND SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START THERE. ONE OF THE MAIN
QUESTIONS IS TO WHAT DEGREE DOES THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
INTERRUPT NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND IMPACT
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE CURRENT PICTURE THE BEST.
THE RAP KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR SOUTH WITH
ONLY VERY MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOOKING AT SOME RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWS THAT THERE IS
A CAP IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD EASILY BE OVERCOME IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET
SOME SUN AND WARM UP. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S...SO ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID TEMPERATURE RISES. THE MAX TEMP FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT...BUT I STILL THINK WE WILL SEE MID/UPPER
70S IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS GETTING INTO THE LOW 70S WILL LIKELY
YIELD CAPE VALUES SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1000-1200 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. SO I THINK WE WILL SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE OVERALL MODEL REPRESENTATION WOULD SUPPORT
ONLY MODEST UPDRAFTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CERTAINLY INCREASES WITH
0-6 KM VALUE INTO THE 50 KT RANGE SO THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT WOULD
SUPPORT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. BUT... IT APPEARS LESS
LIKELY THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BECOME VERY WIDESPREAD GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TO BE LACKING.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING WELL
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL OCCUR...WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT CAUSING BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF LATE TO LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME LOWER 50S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LAKE WINDS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TAKES HOLD. ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST...
STRONG 35-40 KT DOWNSLOPE FLOW CENTERED AROUND 850 MB WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE ADIABATIC HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S IN SOUTHEAST GA WITH UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY 6000 FT MIXED LAYER DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WITH GEOSTROPHIC WINDS PROGGED AT 35-40 KT THIS WILL YIELD
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SOME GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 KT. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN SUNDAY EVENING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SUPPORT FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY MORNING LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR INLAND WITH
LOWER 40S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...PROVIDING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S ON MONDAY AND LIKELY INTO THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE
WEEK...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEFORE
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALTERNATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN AMENDED ACCORDINGLY.
THEN...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO PREVAILING MVFR LEVELS...WITH
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 19Z. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE 22-02Z TIME FRAME...TEMPORARILY
REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF AROUND 20
KT.
KSAV...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO ALTERNATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 16Z.
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE 21-01Z TIME
FRAME...TEMPORARILY REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDY
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL THEN VEER WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR SHORE SC WATERS AND THE OUTER GA
WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT OR GREATER DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST
SWELL...BUT ALL WATERS INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL BE UNDER A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND/OR
SEAS. THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTING TO
GALE FORCE IN THE OUTER GA WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST
INDICATES PATCHY FOG...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD FOG COULD PROMPT DENSE
FOG MARINE ADVISORIES.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES ON SUNDAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY QUIET
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SOUTHERLY
JET INCREASES WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. MARINE FLAGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ON SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...
DOWNSLOPE SUBSIDENCE WILL STRETCH THE MIXED LAYER TO ABOUT 6000 FT.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE 30S DURING THE DAY
WHILE ALSO TAPPING INTO FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. CURRENT MINIMUM
RH FORECAST SHOWS MID/UPPER 20S ON SUNDAY WITH NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. THE FUELS WILL PROBABLY BE
TOO WET FROM ONGOING RAIN TO MAKE FOR A SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER
THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR AMZ354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...JAQ/JRL
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
940 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE DIMINISHING PRECIP OVER THE
CWA WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ELSEWHERE. THE PRECIP WILL END FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE CWA. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. HAVE THEREFORE
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.
17
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL MS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS MOVING INTO WESTERN
AL. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED PRETTY FAR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ALONG WITH
THE DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS GA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL STEEPEN MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AND HAVE FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR POPS. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. STILL THINK THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL BE THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN MS/WESTERN AL. IF THE MCS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
TO THE SE...THIS COULD HELP LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA.
NEWEST RUNS OF THE HRRR DO TAKE THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
WOULD MEAN THAT A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION...BEHIND
THE INITIAL MCS BUT STILL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE HRRR HAS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE SE...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS/ISOLD SEVERE MAY LAST INTO THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AND FOR SURFACE DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. LUCKILY...SHEAR
VALUES ARE RATHER WEAK...WITH THE BEST VALUES ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
THE HRRR DOES CLEAR OUT THE POPS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN TIMING. TEMPS IN THE NE
WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TONIGHT...BUT LUCKILY...THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY. TOO MARGINAL TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH...AND
THE WINDS MAY STAY UP OVERNIGHT JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
DEVELOPMENT.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE STATE.
SYSTEM OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED THOUGH IS NEAR THE END. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS LIFT A SFC LOW OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND PUSHES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THATS PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
TWO MODELS IN TERMS OF FEATURE LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL BOTH
SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR FRIDAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AS THE GFS INDICATES UP TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ON
FRIDAY WITH 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CETRAL MS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT AND LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...AND FINALLY EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. MCS THAT
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE LIGHTNING DYING OFF. AM STILL A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS BETWEEN THE EXITING MCS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD GO W BY MID
MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY NW THIS EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 66 39 66 37 / 100 20 0 0
ATLANTA 65 39 64 42 / 100 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 59 33 57 32 / 100 30 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 62 37 64 34 / 90 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 69 42 68 42 / 100 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 63 38 64 40 / 100 20 0 0
MACON 70 42 67 37 / 100 10 0 0
ROME 62 37 65 34 / 80 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 66 38 65 34 / 100 10 0 0
VIDALIA 72 45 69 41 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL MS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS MOVING INTO WESTERN
AL. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED PRETTY FAR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ALONG WITH
THE DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS GA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL STEEPEN MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AND HAVE FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR POPS. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. STILL THINK THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL BE THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN MS/WESTERN AL. IF THE MCS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
TO THE SE...THIS COULD HELP LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA.
NEWEST RUNS OF THE HRRR DO TAKE THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
WOULD MEAN THAT A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION...BEHIND
THE INITIAL MCS BUT STILL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE HRRR HAS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE SE...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS/ISOLD SEVERE MAY LAST INTO THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AND FOR SURFACE DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. LUCKILY...SHEAR
VALUES ARE RATHER WEAK...WITH THE BEST VALUES ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
THE HRRR DOES CLEAR OUT THE POPS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN TIMING. TEMPS IN THE NE
WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TONIGHT...BUT LUCKILY...THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY. TOO MARGINAL TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH...AND
THE WINDS MAY STAY UP OVERNIGHT JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
DEVELOPMENT.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE STATE.
SYSTEM OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED THOUGH IS NEAR THE END. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS LIFT A SFC LOW OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND PUSHES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THATS PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
TWO MODELS IN TERMS OF FEATURE LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL BOTH
SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR FRIDAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AS THE GFS INDICATES UP TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ON
FRIDAY WITH 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CETRAL MS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT AND LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...AND FINALLY EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. MCS THAT
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE LIGHTNING DYING OFF. AM STILL A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS BETWEEN THE EXITING MCS
AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD GO W BY MID
MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY NW THIS EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 66 39 66 37 / 100 20 0 0
ATLANTA 65 39 64 42 / 100 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 59 33 57 32 / 100 30 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 62 37 64 34 / 90 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 69 42 68 42 / 100 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 63 38 64 40 / 100 20 0 0
MACON 70 42 67 37 / 100 10 0 0
ROME 62 37 65 34 / 80 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 66 38 65 34 / 100 10 0 0
VIDALIA 72 45 69 41 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
637 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST SHOULD REACH THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. RADAR
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR INDICATE THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH H85 WINDS OF
30 TO 40 KNOTS SUPPORTING POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BECAUSE IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE COMPLEX
THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA AND COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR LATER
IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE BREEZY SUNDAY AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER
TO THE AREA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
MODIFY. THE GFS...ECMWF... AND EKD MOS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA ARE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH SOME IFR VSBYS. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 16Z AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE AN AREA SHOWERS/FEW
TSTMS TO CROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES BY EARLY
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA POSSIBLE
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
625 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST SHOULD REACH THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. RADAR
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR INDICATE THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH H85 WINDS OF
30 TO 40 KNOTS SUPPORTING POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BECAUSE IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE COMPLEX
THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA AND COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR LATER
IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE BREEZY SUNDAY AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER
TO THE AREA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
MODIFY. THE GFS...ECMWF... AND EKD MOS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA ARE DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO IFR/LIFR CIGS. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN
AROUND 16Z AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE AN AREA SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS TO CROSS THE TAF
SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA POSSIBLE
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
339 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL MS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS MOVING INTO WESTERN
AL. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED PRETTY FAR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ALONG WITH
THE DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS GA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL STEEPEN MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AND HAVE FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR POPS. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. STILL THINK THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL BE THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN MS/WESTERN AL. IF THE MCS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
TO THE SE...THIS COULD HELP LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA.
NEWEST RUNS OF THE HRRR DO TAKE THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
WOULD MEAN THAT A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION...BEHIND
THE INITIAL MCS BUT STILL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE HRRR HAS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE SE...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS/ISOLD SEVERE MAY LAST INTO THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AND FOR SURFACE DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. LUCKILY...SHEAR
VALUES ARE RATHER WEAK...WITH THE BEST VALUES ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
THE HRRR DOES CLEAR OUT THE POPS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN TIMING. TEMPS IN THE NE
WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TONIGHT...BUT LUCKILY...THE
FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY. TOO MARGINAL TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH...AND
THE WINDS MAY STAY UP OVERNIGHT JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
DEVELOPMENT.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING THE STATE.
SYSTEM OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED THOUGH IS NEAR THE END. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS LIFT A SFC LOW OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND PUSHES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THATS PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
TWO MODELS IN TERMS OF FEATURE LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL BOTH
SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
WEEK. WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR FRIDAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AS THE GFS INDICATES UP TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ON
FRIDAY WITH 30-40KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CURRENTLY...LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES SHOWING UP ON THE REGIONAL RADAR WHILE THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK OVER EASTERN MS. HRRR PROGS THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN APPROACHING THE AL/GA BORDER AROUND 10Z AND
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS...AND THEN
BACK TO THE NW LATER THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
BEHIND THE LINE WILL BE GUSTY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 66 39 66 37 / 100 20 0 0
ATLANTA 65 39 64 42 / 100 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 59 33 57 32 / 100 30 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 62 37 64 34 / 90 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 69 42 68 42 / 100 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 63 38 64 40 / 100 20 0 0
MACON 70 42 67 37 / 100 10 0 0
ROME 62 37 65 34 / 80 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 66 38 65 34 / 100 10 0 0
VIDALIA 72 45 69 41 / 80 30 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
309 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST SHOULD REACH THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. RADAR
TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR INDICATE THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH WITH H85 WINDS OF
30 TO 40 KNOTS SUPPORTING POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BECAUSE IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE COMPLEX
THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA AND COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. DRYING SHOULD OCCUR LATER
IN THE EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE BREEZY SUNDAY AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORT WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER
TO THE AREA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. STRONG NET
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED FROST. A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
MODIFY. THE GFS...ECMWF... AND EKD MOS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. WILL ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT IFR/POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
CONTINUING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO RETURN AROUND 16Z SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE AN AREA SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
CROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
150 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014/
UPDATE...HAS BEEN QUITE AN INTERESTING NIGHT AS INITIAL THOUGHTS
WERE THAT GULF COAST CONVECTION HAD SAVED US ONCE AGAIN AND WE
WOULD ONLY SEE A LIGHT RAIN SHIELD MOVE IN WITH LITTLE FANFARE.
AND FOR ALL OUTWARD APPEARANCES THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED...THAT IS
UNTIL A WAKE LOW FORMED OVER ALABAMA AND PROGRESSED EAST ALLOWING
FOR 4MB PRESSURE FALLS IN THE 2 HOUR PLOT. ALTHOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD
BY ANY MEANS...THIS RESULTED IN ISOLATED POCKETS OF WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND LINED UP VERY WELL WITH 4MB BULLSEYE AS IT
TRACKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DAMAGE REPORTS FROM HOUSTON
COUNTY INCLUDED TREES DOWN INCLUDING SOME IN HOMES. IN LATEST
RADAR PICS...YOU CAN NOW SEE THE MESOVORTICE IN THE REFLECTIVITY
PATTERN AS IT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
ARKANSAS WHICH RACED OUT AHEAD HAS BEEN IN THE MORE STABLE SECTOR
AND ELEVATED IN NATURE. REGIONAL CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS ALL SURFACE
BASED CAPE TO BE SOUTH ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA WITH NON
NOTED TO THE EAST AT THIS TIME INCLUDING GEORGIA. EXPECT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO TODAY WITH SOUTHERN ACTIVITY TAKING OVER AND DIVING SE
AS IT LOOKS FOR THE MORE ENRICHED AIR ALONG THE GULF COAST. NORTHERN
ACTIVITY WHICH WILL AFFECT US WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS BUT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHERB PLOT CONFIRMS THIS
TAKING THE 1 UNIT VALUES SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT PLENTY OF HIGH END 9
VALUES TO KEEP AN EYE ON OUR ZONES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO MACON LINE. CLEANED UP POPS AND ADJUSTED TIMING A BIT IN GRIDS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.
DEESE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE HAD A POOR HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...AND OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY HAS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECAST
HAD INDICATED. LARGE COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN GULF HAS CUT OFF THE
MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA AND PREVENTED THE CWA FROM SEEING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE AREA WERE HIGHEST ALONG THE AL/GA LINE...WITH 1.5
INCHES...AND DIMINISHED EASTWARD WITH ONLY 0.25 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS DO
NOT DEPICT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION EARLY MORNING AND
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A SIMILAR SITUATION AS TODAY WITH A
COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN GULF RESTRICTING THE CWAS CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT BEING SAID...A FEW MODELS /LARGELY THE GFS/ IS
CONTINUING TO SHOW CAPE VALUES IN THE 1200-1400 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER MODELS HAVE 200-500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE
INITIAL THINKING WAS THAT THIS PORTION OF THE CWA WOULD HAVE MORE
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEATING SATURDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...MODELS HAVE
INCREASED MOISTURE TO THAT AREA...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
INSOLATION. OVERALL THE BEST SHEAR DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE BEST
MODELED INSTABILITY...ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CAPPED MENTION OF THUNDER TO CHANCE FOR SATURDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS STILL EXISTS...AND THOUGH THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT IN THE MODELS...ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.0 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME THE AREA HAS BEEN ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL WELL...AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS.
THE RAIN EXITS THE STATE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
QUICKLY BEHIND IT. WITH GRADIENT WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MEETING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. WILL ALLOW THE NEXT
SHIFTS TO REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY AND WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW.
31
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER POPS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THURSDAY THEN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH POSSIBLE STRONG FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AREA FRIDAY /GIVEN 12Z RUN OF GFS/ AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MUCH COULD HAPPEN
THIS LATE IN THE FORECAST. ALSO...ANY POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
BAKER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014/
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...SYSTEM THAT BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE SOME RAIN COULD LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS THE NE GA MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK. INSTABILITY VALUES SUPPORT THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CURRENTLY...LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES SHOWING UP ON THE REGIONAL RADAR WHILE THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK OVER EASTERN MS. HRRR PROGS THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN APPROACHING THE AL/GA BORDER AROUND 10Z AND
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS...AND THEN
BACK TO THE NW LATER THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
BEHIND THE LINE WILL BE GUSTY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 72 42 69 38 / 70 20 0 0
ATLANTA 69 42 65 42 / 90 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 65 37 62 34 / 70 30 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 69 41 65 36 / 80 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 47 70 42 / 100 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 68 41 64 40 / 80 20 0 0
MACON 74 44 71 38 / 100 10 0 0
ROME 68 42 66 35 / 80 10 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 71 41 67 35 / 100 10 0 0
VIDALIA 75 48 71 43 / 90 30 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
252 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
302 AM CDT
TODAY...
THIS MORNING...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA. THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PRECIP MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS AND ONLY A DUSTING IS
EXPECTED. SPLIT CHANNEL IR IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS STILL SPANS MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY...THEN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD START TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SKIES
CLEARING. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S...THOUGH WILL STAY IN THE 30S NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
COMPACT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER SOCAL EARLY SUNDAY...THEN
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN IN RESPONSE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO THE REGION HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. H85 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 10C BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND 12C TO 13C BY MONDAY. CLIMO FROM NARR DATASET SHOWS
MEDIAN TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S WHEN H85 TEMPS EXCEED AROUND 9C FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF MARCH. WHILE THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY...THEY SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN SOME TIME. BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY ON TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...AND WHILE I THINK AREAS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA STILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF 60...IT
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN CHICAGO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DUE TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TEMPS MONDAY REVOLVE
AROUND CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT HOW
WARM WE GET. H5 VORT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT MONDAY AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL BROAD SCALE ASCENT. LATEST
THINKING ON TIMING OF THE LOW STILL HAS THE BETTER FORCING WELL TO
THE WEST DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN SOME VERY MODEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY EXISTS. WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST...COULD SEE CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS. WITH A PRETTY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...MAY BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REFINED POPS TO REFLECT THESE TIMING DETAILS
BUT MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 PERCENT DUE TO COVERAGE CONCERNS. AS FAR AS
TEMPS...REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP. WINDS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY BREEZY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AND EVEN BREEZIER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. 50KT WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND
900MB MONDAY...AND WITH DEEP MIXING POSSIBLE...THE AREA MAY SEE
30MPH+ GUSTS AT THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF WAVES PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION. STILL CONSIDERABLE TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES THOUGH GUIDANCE
DOES SEEM TO BE FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERLY/COOLER PATTERN...
ESPECIALLY THE GFS WITH GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS. THE EMCWF
MAINTAINS A WARMER SOLUTION...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE VERY NEAR
RESULTING IN A DECENT TEMPS SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.
CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPS NEXT WEEK
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH RESULTS IN WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CIGS SCATTERING/CLEARING TOWARD 21Z.
* NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA
TERMINALS WITH A CORRIDOR OF IFR CIGS AND MIST/DRIZZLE DOWN NEAR
GYY. THE IFR SHOULD IMPROVE AT GYY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHILE
ORD/MDW/DPA SEE STEADILY IMPROVING CLOUD BASES THEN SCATTERING OF
COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FAVORING AN EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH STEADIER
SOUTH WINDS SPREADING IN FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG AT DPA...AND POSSIBLY RFD FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. WILL NOT INDICATE ANY RESTRICTIONS IN THESE TAFS FOR NOW
AS THE SETUP LOOKS A BIT MARGINAL.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS SCATTERING/CLEARING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND MVFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SLGT CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
251 PM CDT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA CONTINUES UP AROUND 20S OUT AHEAD OF AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS FLOW IS BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGH...AND AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THIS...I HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE EXPECTATION THAT
WAVES ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 4 FOOT MARK. THESE WINDS WILL ABATE
THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUAL
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. OVERALL...THIS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
EVENING...LIKELY TO AROUND 30 KT. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THAT WARMER
AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN A STABLE MARINE
LAYER...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES FOR GALES.
HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER WINDS NEARLY GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE LAKE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAKE AIM ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...AROUND THURSDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF SOME ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO THE END OF THE UP COMING
WEEK.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
The progressive weather pattern will provide active weather next
week as several storm systems affect Illinois. The latter half of
this weekend looks pleasant with plenty of sunshine pushing temps
above normal. However, by Monday afternoon the first system will
bring chances of rain, and the onset of a return to cooler
conditions. Heavier rains in the Wed to Thur time frame could
accumulate between 1-2" in some locations. Localized flooding may
develop.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night.
Low clouds have been keeping high temps generally below forecast
highs this afternoon. A narrow break in the cloud cover allowed
Peoria to spike up about 10 degrees in a couple hours, and create
a large temperature gradient over short distances in our forecast
area. The RAP and HRRR layer RH indicate that some clearing should
continue west of I-57 between 23z and 03z. Lows tonight will be
dependent on cloud cover. Areas east of I-57 may remain cloudy
until just after midnight as NE surface winds continue to drag low-
level moisture from the Great Lakes into eastern IL. Even a few
hours of clearing later tonight should allow eastern areas to cool
off to near guidance lows, especially with surface dewpoints
dipping into the upper 20s in many locations.
Sunday will see mid level temps climb 5 to 7C during the day as an
upper level ridge axis advances into eastern IL by 00z/7pm Monday.
Near full sunshine should combine with increasing south winds to
push highs about 10 to 15 deg above normal (60s), which will be a
welcome taste of Spring. An tightening pressure gradient ahead of
the next system will keep south winds up in the 10 to 20 mph range
even Sunday night. So despite clear skies Sunday night, south
winds will keep a mixed boundary layer and allow lows to be in the
upper 40s west and around 40 east.
LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday.
Increasing clouds on Monday will not prohibit highs from climbing
well into the 60s for one more day, as south-southeast winds
increase into the 25 to 35 mph range. By Monday afternoon, a
parent low pressure system will advance from eastern Nebraska to
southeastern Minn, as a cold front reaches the western border of
IL by 00z/7pm Monday. Pre-frontal storms will have a high amount
of wind shear and storm relative helicity available, along with
steep lapse rates, but a limited amount of moisture. Forecast
soundings show the best instability may be at or above 750 mb, so
any thunderstorms will be elevated to begin. Due the strong jet
dynamics and wind shear with this system, some of the storms could
begin rotating and produce hail and strong winds Monday afternoon
and evening ahead of the cold front.
Showers and storms should end from west to east by midnight in the
post-frontal subsidence and dry air intrusion. Clouds will likely
clear out behind the line of precip, so lows in the NW could dip
below freezing, while southeast areas remain in the low 40s.
The brief pocket of cold air is forecast to brush across N IL late
Mon night and Tues morning, which will keep highs about 10-15 deg
colder than Monday. High temps will range from around 50 near
Galesburg to around 60 by Lawrenceville.
Return flow behind the cooler high pressure will bring increasing
moisture Tuesday night, with a few showers possible before sunrise
on Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances will increase along and south
of a warm front that is expected to develop directly across
central IL from west to east. Storm chances will be higher in the
warm sector roughly south of a line from Rushville to Champaign.
Instability may have a better chance of being based closer to the
surface as dewpoints climb into the 50s Wed night south of the
warm front, which will be close to overnight low temps.
Precipitable water values are expected to climb over an inch Wed
night through Thursday as low pressure tracks northeast along the
warm front. Locally heavy rain may occur in any thunderstorms,
with training of storms over the same area also boosting rainfall
amounts. Localized flooding could develop in low areas, as
rainfall amounts possibly reach between 1 and 2 inches by Thursday
afternoon.
A wide range of temps will occur across C IL from north to south
from Tues night through Thursday as the warm front lingers across
the middle of the area. The temp spreads could be 20 to 25 degrees
from north to south for highs and lows.
There is a spread of solutions for how the surface and upper level
systems progress from after Thursday. The GFS lingers the upper
trough farther west Thurs night, then brings a secondary surface
low and another round of rain showers across IL on Friday. The
ECMWF is more progressive and drys out the air column after the
low on Thursday. So low chance and slight chance PoPs were
included Thurs night and Friday to account for a slower
progression.
There is some agreement that another push of cold air will keep
temps below normal for Friday and Saturday, with Saturday looking
dry at this time.
Shimon
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1234 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
MVFR stratus/SC will continue to affect terminals this afternoon.
A thin clear slot separates a lower MVFR cloud mass likely
augmented by Lake Michigan moisture, which has recently edged into
BMI/CMI. Brief reductions to IFR cigs/vsbys likely especially
towards CMI for the next few hours. Low level wind trajectories
favor this region to sink more south than southwest this afternoon,
staying east of PIA/SPI and possibly near DEC. Drier air
associated with a surface ridge over IA will help scour out the
cloud cover as it approaches the area late afternoon/early
evening. 10-15 kt north winds will subside this evening, then go
light/variable through sunrise as the ridge moves overhead. Return
flow brings southeast winds near/under 10 kts by late morning
along with scattered high clouds.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1256 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
302 AM CDT
TODAY...
THIS MORNING...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA. THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PRECIP MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS AND ONLY A DUSTING IS
EXPECTED. SPLIT CHANNEL IR IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS STILL SPANS MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY...THEN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD START TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SKIES
CLEARING. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S...THOUGH WILL STAY IN THE 30S NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
COMPACT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER SOCAL EARLY SUNDAY...THEN
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN IN RESPONSE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO THE REGION HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. H85 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 10C BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND 12C TO 13C BY MONDAY. CLIMO FROM NARR DATASET SHOWS
MEDIAN TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S WHEN H85 TEMPS EXCEED AROUND 9C FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF MARCH. WHILE THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY...THEY SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN SOME TIME. BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY ON TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...AND WHILE I THINK AREAS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA STILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF 60...IT
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN CHICAGO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DUE TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TEMPS MONDAY REVOLVE
AROUND CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT HOW
WARM WE GET. H5 VORT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT MONDAY AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL BROAD SCALE ASCENT. LATEST
THINKING ON TIMING OF THE LOW STILL HAS THE BETTER FORCING WELL TO
THE WEST DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN SOME VERY MODEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY EXISTS. WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST...COULD SEE CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS. WITH A PRETTY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...MAY BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REFINED POPS TO REFLECT THESE TIMING DETAILS
BUT MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 PERCENT DUE TO COVERAGE CONCERNS. AS FAR AS
TEMPS...REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP. WINDS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY BREEZY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AND EVEN BREEZIER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. 50KT WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND
900MB MONDAY...AND WITH DEEP MIXING POSSIBLE...THE AREA MAY SEE
30MPH+ GUSTS AT THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF WAVES PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION. STILL CONSIDERABLE TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES THOUGH GUIDANCE
DOES SEEM TO BE FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERLY/COOLER PATTERN...
ESPECIALLY THE GFS WITH GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS. THE EMCWF
MAINTAINS A WARMER SOLUTION...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE VERY NEAR
RESULTING IN A DECENT TEMPS SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.
CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPS NEXT WEEK
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH RESULTS IN WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CIGS SCATTERING/CLEARING TOWARD 21Z.
* NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA
TERMINALS WITH A CORRIDOR OF IFR CIGS AND MIST/DRIZZLE DOWN NEAR
GYY. THE IFR SHOULD IMPROVE AT GYY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHILE
ORD/MDW/DPA SEE STEADILY IMPROVING CLOUD BASES THEN SCATTERING OF
COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FAVORING AN EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH STEADIER
SOUTH WINDS SPREADING IN FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG AT DPA...AND POSSIBLY RFD FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. WILL NOT INDICATE ANY RESTRICTIONS IN THESE TAFS FOR NOW
AS THE SETUP LOOKS A BIT MARGINAL.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS SCATTERING/CLEARING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND MVFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SLGT CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM CDT
WINDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TODAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...THEN WILL VEER EAST AFTER
THE RIDGE PASSES EARLY SUNDAY. THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW THEN
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF GALES ON THE SOUTHERN HALF.
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
VERY STRONG BUT MAY BE LESS EFFECTIVE AT CREATING GALES THAN THE
WEAKER BUT COLDER WINDS BEHIND THE LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1234 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1024 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Showers associated with low pressure in the eastern Tennessee
Valley has now shifted east into Indiana and have updated forecast
to reflect dry conditions across the entire CWA for the remainder
of the day. Plenty of stratus continues to plague the region again
today and main forecast issue is the potential for afternoon
clearing and associated affect on high temps. A sliver of clearing
is approaching the northern CWA but already starting to fill in
with SC and a larger batch of stratus over NE IL is quickly
advecting in behind this on NNE low level flow. Think clouds will
hang tough as long as low level flow remains out of N/NNE which
should last well into afternoon. As the low pulls further east
winds will eventually come around to N/NNW advecting in drier air
from NW IL and eastern IA, and subsidence off surface ridge to our
west should help break up cloud deck. With this in mind have
increased cloud cover through mid afternoon, lowered highs a
degree or two, and slowed diurnal temp rise.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1234 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
MVFR stratus/SC will continue to affect terminals this afternoon.
A thin clear slot separates a lower MVFR cloud mass likely
augmented by Lake Michigan moisture, which has recently edged into
BMI/CMI. Brief reductions to IFR cigs/vsbys likely especially
towards CMI for the next few hours. Low level wind trajectories
favor this region to sink more south than southwest this afternoon,
staying east of PIA/SPI and possibly near DEC. Drier air
associated with a surface ridge over IA will help scour out the
cloud cover as it approaches the area late afternoon/early
evening. 10-15 kt north winds will subside this evening, then go
light/variable through sunrise as the ridge moves overhead. Return
flow brings southeast winds near/under 10 kts by late morning
along with scattered high clouds.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 227 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Surface low tracking across northern Mississippi early this
morning, while an upper trough moves through Iowa and western
Missouri. Area of showers streaming northward ahead of the upper
trough has made it up to around Taylorville and Sullivan as of 2
am, although the leading edge has had to fight some dry air to
make it that far.
A rather active weather pattern is on tap for next week, with
precipitation timing the primary forecast concern.
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday:
Will maintain some precipitation chances across the far eastern
CWA for the first few hours after sunrise, until the trough moves
into Illinois. Forecast soundings off the RAP model suggest some
rain/snow mix north of I-70 until the ice crystals are lost by mid
morning, with rain to the south. Otherwise, will see a decrease in
clouds from west to east this afternoon, as ridge axis moves
southeast out of the northern Plains.
Decent warm air advection sets up early Sunday as the high drifts
east of the state. With abundant sunshine, have sided more toward
the MAV MOS highs in the lower to mid 60s, with temperatures in
the mid to upper 60s on Monday. Monday looks to be fairly windy
ahead of the next storm system, with Bufkit data suggesting wind
gusts of 30-40 mph. Main surface low expected to track northeast
into southern Minnesota by late afternoon, with the trailing cold
front sweeping through the forecast area during the evening. Lower
levels of the forecast soundings are rather dry though except for
a brief window late afternoon and early evening, so will maintain
PoP`s only in the 30 percent range.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday:
Upper troughing begins to dig across California Tuesday night as a
closed low moves southeast toward Los Angeles. As the week
progresses, the question becomes how deep this remains and how
fast the remaining closed low is ejected northeast. GFS and ECMWF
maintain a rather wide range as a storm system develops over the
Plains. The GFS remains much further south, with more of an
inverted trough extending over southeast Illinois by Thursday
morning. The ECMWF loiters a warm front just north of I-72 most of
Wednesday and Thursday, before the parent low arrives Thursday
evening. Both solutions would favor widespread showers, although
the warmer ECMWF would suggest thunder being more widespread. Have
not changed too much from the previous forecast, which favored the
ECMWF and warmer temperatures.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1103 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
302 AM CDT
TODAY...
THIS MORNING...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA. THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PRECIP MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS AND ONLY A DUSTING IS
EXPECTED. SPLIT CHANNEL IR IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS STILL SPANS MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY...THEN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD START TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SKIES
CLEARING. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S...THOUGH WILL STAY IN THE 30S NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
COMPACT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER SOCAL EARLY SUNDAY...THEN
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN IN RESPONSE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO THE REGION HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. H85 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 10C BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND 12C TO 13C BY MONDAY. CLIMO FROM NARR DATASET SHOWS
MEDIAN TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S WHEN H85 TEMPS EXCEED AROUND 9C FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF MARCH. WHILE THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY...THEY SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN SOME TIME. BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY ON TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...AND WHILE I THINK AREAS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA STILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF 60...IT
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN CHICAGO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DUE TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TEMPS MONDAY REVOLVE
AROUND CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT HOW
WARM WE GET. H5 VORT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT MONDAY AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL BROAD SCALE ASCENT. LATEST
THINKING ON TIMING OF THE LOW STILL HAS THE BETTER FORCING WELL TO
THE WEST DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN SOME VERY MODEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY EXISTS. WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST...COULD SEE CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS. WITH A PRETTY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...MAY BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REFINED POPS TO REFLECT THESE TIMING DETAILS
BUT MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 PERCENT DUE TO COVERAGE CONCERNS. AS FAR AS
TEMPS...REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP. WINDS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY BREEZY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AND EVEN BREEZIER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. 50KT WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND
900MB MONDAY...AND WITH DEEP MIXING POSSIBLE...THE AREA MAY SEE
30MPH+ GUSTS AT THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF WAVES PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION. STILL CONSIDERABLE TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES THOUGH GUIDANCE
DOES SEEM TO BE FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERLY/COOLER PATTERN...
ESPECIALLY THE GFS WITH GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS. THE EMCWF
MAINTAINS A WARMER SOLUTION...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE VERY NEAR
RESULTING IN A DECENT TEMPS SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.
CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPS NEXT WEEK
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH RESULTS IN WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* VARIABLE MVFR CIGS SCATTERING MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
* NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
CIGS ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE WITH SOME LIFTING OF
BASES OCCURRING AS WELL. CLEARING IS STARTING TO MARCH SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE LAKE AS WELL AND THIS LOOKS TO ARRIVE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AT ORD/MDW/DPA/GYY. RFD LOOKS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL SUPPORT GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...THEN TURN EAST TOMORROW BEHIND IT.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SCATTERING CIGS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND MVFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SLGT CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM CDT
WINDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TODAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...THEN WILL VEER EAST AFTER
THE RIDGE PASSES EARLY SUNDAY. THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW THEN
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF GALES ON THE SOUTHERN HALF.
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
VERY STRONG BUT MAY BE LESS EFFECTIVE AT CREATING GALES THAN THE
WEAKER BUT COLDER WINDS BEHIND THE LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1024 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1024 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Showers associated with low pressure in the eastern Tennessee
Valley has now shifted east into Indiana and have updated forecast
to reflect dry conditions across the entire CWA for the remainder
of the day. Plenty of stratus continues to plague the region again
today and main forecast issue is the potential for afternoon
clearing and associated affect on high temps. A sliver of clearing
is approaching the northern CWA but already starting to fill in
with SC and a larger batch of stratus over NE IL is quickly
advecting in behind this on NNE low level flow. Think clouds will
hang tough as long as low level flow remains out of N/NNE which
should last well into afternoon. As the low pulls further east
winds will eventually come around to N/NNW advecting in drier air
from NW IL and eastern IA, and subsidence off surface ridge to our
west should help break up cloud deck. With this in mind have
increased cloud cover through mid afternoon, lowered highs a
degree or two, and slowed diurnal temp rise.
25
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 640 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
MVFR cigs will continue at all TAF sites until sometime after 18z.
Vis is lower at some sites, so have a TEMPO group for PIA/DEC/CMI
and a TEMPO group for SPI with cigs below 1kft for a couple hours
this morning. Clouds will hopefully scatter out this afternoon as
models show some drier air advecting into the region; PIA and SPI
first, followed by CMI last. Skies will eventually become clear,
but not until the early evening time frame, right around sunset.
Clear skies will then continue til tomorrow mroning. Winds will be
northerly through the day, and then become light and variable
tonight. Wind speeds this morning will be around 10kts, but then
as the clouds scatter out, some mixing will occur and think that
all sites could see gusts to around 20kts. Light winds expected
tonight.
Auten
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 227 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Surface low tracking across northern Mississippi early this
morning, while an upper trough moves through Iowa and western
Missouri. Area of showers streaming northward ahead of the upper
trough has made it up to around Taylorville and Sullivan as of 2
am, although the leading edge has had to fight some dry air to
make it that far.
A rather active weather pattern is on tap for next week, with
precipitation timing the primary forecast concern.
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday:
Will maintain some precipitation chances across the far eastern
CWA for the first few hours after sunrise, until the trough moves
into Illinois. Forecast soundings off the RAP model suggest some
rain/snow mix north of I-70 until the ice crystals are lost by mid
morning, with rain to the south. Otherwise, will see a decrease in
clouds from west to east this afternoon, as ridge axis moves
southeast out of the northern Plains.
Decent warm air advection sets up early Sunday as the high drifts
east of the state. With abundant sunshine, have sided more toward
the MAV MOS highs in the lower to mid 60s, with temperatures in
the mid to upper 60s on Monday. Monday looks to be fairly windy
ahead of the next storm system, with Bufkit data suggesting wind
gusts of 30-40 mph. Main surface low expected to track northeast
into southern Minnesota by late afternoon, with the trailing cold
front sweeping through the forecast area during the evening. Lower
levels of the forecast soundings are rather dry though except for
a brief window late afternoon and early evening, so will maintain
PoP`s only in the 30 percent range.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday:
Upper troughing begins to dig across California Tuesday night as a
closed low moves southeast toward Los Angeles. As the week
progresses, the question becomes how deep this remains and how
fast the remaining closed low is ejected northeast. GFS and ECMWF
maintain a rather wide range as a storm system develops over the
Plains. The GFS remains much further south, with more of an
inverted trough extending over southeast Illinois by Thursday
morning. The ECMWF loiters a warm front just north of I-72 most of
Wednesday and Thursday, before the parent low arrives Thursday
evening. Both solutions would favor widespread showers, although
the warmer ECMWF would suggest thunder being more widespread. Have
not changed too much from the previous forecast, which favored the
ECMWF and warmer temperatures.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
657 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
302 AM CDT
TODAY...
THIS MORNING...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA. THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PRECIP MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS AND ONLY A DUSTING IS
EXPECTED. SPLIT CHANNEL IR IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS STILL SPANS MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY...THEN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD START TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SKIES
CLEARING. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S...THOUGH WILL STAY IN THE 30S NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
COMPACT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER SOCAL EARLY SUNDAY...THEN
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN IN RESPONSE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO THE REGION HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. H85 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 10C BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND 12C TO 13C BY MONDAY. CLIMO FROM NARR DATASET SHOWS
MEDIAN TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S WHEN H85 TEMPS EXCEED AROUND 9C FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF MARCH. WHILE THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY...THEY SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN SOME TIME. BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY ON TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...AND WHILE I THINK AREAS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA STILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF 60...IT
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN CHICAGO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DUE TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TEMPS MONDAY REVOLVE
AROUND CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT HOW
WARM WE GET. H5 VORT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT MONDAY AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL BROAD SCALE ASCENT. LATEST
THINKING ON TIMING OF THE LOW STILL HAS THE BETTER FORCING WELL TO
THE WEST DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN SOME VERY MODEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY EXISTS. WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST...COULD SEE CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS. WITH A PRETTY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...MAY BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REFINED POPS TO REFLECT THESE TIMING DETAILS
BUT MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 PERCENT DUE TO COVERAGE CONCERNS. AS FAR AS
TEMPS...REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP. WINDS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY BREEZY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AND EVEN BREEZIER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. 50KT WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND
900MB MONDAY...AND WITH DEEP MIXING POSSIBLE...THE AREA MAY SEE
30MPH+ GUSTS AT THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF WAVES PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION. STILL CONSIDERABLE TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES THOUGH GUIDANCE
DOES SEEM TO BE FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERLY/COOLER PATTERN...
ESPECIALLY THE GFS WITH GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS. THE EMCWF
MAINTAINS A WARMER SOLUTION...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE VERY NEAR
RESULTING IN A DECENT TEMPS SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.
CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPS NEXT WEEK
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH RESULTS IN WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
* MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING BUT SCATTERING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL SUPPORT GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...THEN TURN EAST TOMORROW BEHIND IT.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF VFR CEILINGS.
* HIGH FOR OTHER ELEMENTS
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND MVFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SLGT CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
310 AM CDT
WINDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TODAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...THEN WILL VEER EAST AFTER
THE RIDGE PASSES EARLY SUNDAY. THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW THEN
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF GALES ON THE SOUTHERN HALF.
THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
VERY STRONG BUT MAY BE LESS EFFECTIVE AT CREATING GALES THAN THE
WEAKER BUT COLDER WINDS BEHIND THE LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
640 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 227 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Surface low tracking across northern Mississippi early this
morning, while an upper trough moves through Iowa and western
Missouri. Area of showers streaming northward ahead of the upper
trough has made it up to around Taylorville and Sullivan as of 2
am, although the leading edge has had to fight some dry air to
make it that far.
A rather active weather pattern is on tap for next week, with
precipitation timing the primary forecast concern.
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday:
Will maintain some precipitation chances across the far eastern
CWA for the first few hours after sunrise, until the trough moves
into Illinois. Forecast soundings off the RAP model suggest some
rain/snow mix north of I-70 until the ice crystals are lost by mid
morning, with rain to the south. Otherwise, will see a decrease in
clouds from west to east this afternoon, as ridge axis moves
southeast out of the northern Plains.
Decent warm air advection sets up early Sunday as the high drifts
east of the state. With abundant sunshine, have sided more toward
the MAV MOS highs in the lower to mid 60s, with temperatures in
the mid to upper 60s on Monday. Monday looks to be fairly windy
ahead of the next storm system, with Bufkit data suggesting wind
gusts of 30-40 mph. Main surface low expected to track northeast
into southern Minnesota by late afternoon, with the trailing cold
front sweeping through the forecast area during the evening. Lower
levels of the forecast soundings are rather dry though except for
a brief window late afternoon and early evening, so will maintain
PoP`s only in the 30 percent range.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday:
Upper troughing begins to dig across California Tuesday night as a
closed low moves southeast toward Los Angeles. As the week
progresses, the question becomes how deep this remains and how
fast the remaining closed low is ejected northeast. GFS and ECMWF
maintain a rather wide range as a storm system develops over the
Plains. The GFS remains much further south, with more of an
inverted trough extending over southeast Illinois by Thursday
morning. The ECMWF loiters a warm front just north of I-72 most of
Wednesday and Thursday, before the parent low arrives Thursday
evening. Both solutions would favor widespread showers, although
the warmer ECMWF would suggest thunder being more widespread. Have
not changed too much from the previous forecast, which favored the
ECMWF and warmer temperatures.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 640 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
MVFR cigs will continue at all TAF sites until sometime after 18z.
Vis is lower at some sites, so have a TEMPO group for PIA/DEC/CMI
and a TEMPO group for SPI with cigs below 1kft for a couple hours
this morning. Clouds will hopefully scatter out this afternoon as
models show some drier air advecting into the region; PIA and SPI
first, followed by CMI last. Skies will eventually become clear,
but not until the early evening time frame, right around sunset.
Clear skies will then continue til tomorrow mroning. Winds will be
northerly through the day, and then become light and variable
tonight. Wind speeds this morning will be around 10kts, but then
as the clouds scatter out, some mixing will occur and think that
all sites could see gusts to around 20kts. Light winds expected
tonight.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
304 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
302 AM CDT
TODAY...
THIS MORNING...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA. THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PRECIP MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS AND ONLY A DUSTING IS
EXPECTED. SPLIT CHANNEL IR IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS STILL SPANS MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY...THEN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD START TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SKIES
CLEARING. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S...THOUGH WILL STAY IN THE 30S NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
COMPACT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER SOCAL EARLY SUNDAY...THEN
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN IN RESPONSE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO THE REGION HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. H85 TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 10C BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND 12C TO 13C BY MONDAY. CLIMO FROM NARR DATASET SHOWS
MEDIAN TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S WHEN H85 TEMPS EXCEED AROUND 9C FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF MARCH. WHILE THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY...THEY SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN SOME TIME. BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY ON TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...AND WHILE I THINK AREAS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA STILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF 60...IT
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN CHICAGO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DUE TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TEMPS MONDAY REVOLVE
AROUND CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT HOW
WARM WE GET. H5 VORT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT MONDAY AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL BROAD SCALE ASCENT. LATEST
THINKING ON TIMING OF THE LOW STILL HAS THE BETTER FORCING WELL TO
THE WEST DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN SOME VERY MODEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY EXISTS. WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST...COULD SEE CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS. WITH A PRETTY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...MAY BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REFINED POPS TO REFLECT THESE TIMING DETAILS
BUT MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 PERCENT DUE TO COVERAGE CONCERNS. AS FAR AS
TEMPS...REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP. WINDS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY BREEZY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AND EVEN BREEZIER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. 50KT WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND
900MB MONDAY...AND WITH DEEP MIXING POSSIBLE...THE AREA MAY SEE
30MPH+ GUSTS AT THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF WAVES PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION. STILL CONSIDERABLE TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES THOUGH GUIDANCE
DOES SEEM TO BE FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERLY/COOLER PATTERN...
ESPECIALLY THE GFS WITH GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS. THE EMCWF
MAINTAINS A WARMER SOLUTION...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE VERY NEAR
RESULTING IN A DECENT TEMPS SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.
CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPS NEXT WEEK
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WHICH RESULTS IN WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING.
THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE WEST OF THE ORD/MDW AREA.
* EAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST WITH MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING
INTO MID TO LATE MORNING.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING AN ELEVATED BAND OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND NW ILLINOIS. 06Z HOURLY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET TO
SHOW ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND...AND THE FORECAST MODELS THAT
DEPICT THIS FEATURE KEEP IT LIMITED TO THE RFD AREA RATHER THAN
MOVING IT EAST. THAT LEAVES MVFR CIGS AND EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE PREDAWN HOURS. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHERLY TOWARD
MORNING BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT GO AROUND TO WEST OF NORTH. INSTEAD
THEY AGAIN GO MORE EASTERLY TOWARD EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS HIGH SHOULD COME
SCATTERING CEILINGS AT SOME POINT TOWARD LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
TUESDAY...SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND MVFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...SLGT CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
117 PM CDT
FAIRLY TYPICAL ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES THIS WEEKEND BUT A
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD
RESULT IN A BIT OF A NORTH WIND OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW
OVER THE PLAINS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
MONDAY. STABILITY ISSUES LOOK TO COME INTO PLAY AS 60F TEMPS RUN
INTO THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULT IN VERY SHALLOW MIXING.
GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS...THOUGH THE LIMITED MIXING COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE IT HARD TO
REACH GALES EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE NEARSHORE.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
228 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 227 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Surface low tracking across northern Mississippi early this
morning, while an upper trough moves through Iowa and western
Missouri. Area of showers streaming northward ahead of the upper
trough has made it up to around Taylorville and Sullivan as of 2
am, although the leading edge has had to fight some dry air to
make it that far.
A rather active weather pattern is on tap for next week, with
precipitation timing the primary forecast concern.
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday:
Will maintain some precipitation chances across the far eastern
CWA for the first few hours after sunrise, until the trough moves
into Illinois. Forecast soundings off the RAP model suggest some
rain/snow mix north of I-70 until the ice crystals are lost by mid
morning, with rain to the south. Otherwise, will see a decrease in
clouds from west to east this afternoon, as ridge axis moves
southeast out of the northern Plains.
Decent warm air advection sets up early Sunday as the high drifts
east of the state. With abundant sunshine, have sided more toward
the MAV MOS highs in the lower to mid 60s, with temperatures in
the mid to upper 60s on Monday. Monday looks to be fairly windy
ahead of the next storm system, with Bufkit data suggesting wind
gusts of 30-40 mph. Main surface low expected to track northeast
into southern Minnesota by late afternoon, with the trailing cold
front sweeping through the forecast area during the evening. Lower
levels of the forecast soundings are rather dry though except for
a brief window late afternoon and early evening, so will maintain
PoP`s only in the 30 percent range.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday:
Upper troughing begins to dig across California Tuesday night as a
closed low moves southeast toward Los Angeles. As the week
progresses, the question becomes how deep this remains and how
fast the remaining closed low is ejected northeast. GFS and ECMWF
maintain a rather wide range as a storm system develops over the
Plains. The GFS remains much further south, with more of an
inverted trough extending over southeast Illinois by Thursday
morning. The ECMWF loiters a warm front just north of I-72 most of
Wednesday and Thursday, before the parent low arrives Thursday
evening. Both solutions would favor widespread showers, although
the warmer ECMWF would suggest thunder being more widespread. Have
not changed too much from the previous forecast, which favored the
ECMWF and warmer temperatures.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2014
Surface wave over southeast Arkansas, a reflection of a southern
stream mid-level wave, is moving northeast along stationary front.
In addition, an inverted trough near the Mississippi River is
associated with a northern stream wave. Moisture streaming ahead
of the southern system is beginning to be pulled northward ahead
of the inverted trough. precipitation will likely begin to develop
in the eastern terminals over next few hours.
CIGs have been low MVFR through Friday and have been relatively
uniform across much of the region. These CIGs will likely remain
in the 015-025 range until the inverted trough moves through Saturday
morning. Abundant boundary layer moisture trapped beneath the inversion
should make any CIG slow to rise and thin though should scatter
out by early evening Saturday as ridge builds in from the west and
drier air advects into the TAF sites.
Northerly winds should increase early Saturday as low/trough pulls
off to the east and gradient increases ahead of plains ridge.
Ridge moves across terminals Saturday evening enabling winds to
quickly diminish around sunset.
Barker
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
404 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 0404 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
PRECIPITATION HAS NOW EXITED THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COLD IN THE LOW TO MID 20S BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UP NICELY ON
SUNDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS HIGH TEMPEARTURES RISE INTO THE MID 60S
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
NO SIG ISSUES TO WORRY ABOUT FOR THE SHORT TERM AS RAIN/SNOW THAT
HAS FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WAS NEARLY
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO CLEARING TONIGHT AND
HOW WARM WE GET ON SUNDAY.
BY IN LARGE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH REMAINING
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF HENRY/PUTNAM AND ALLEN COUNTIES IN
OHIO. SFC LOW WAS OVER NE TENNESSEE AT 18Z AND SLOWLY DEEPENING
WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND IT. THIS WILL KEEP
SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY EAST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE IN THE WEST AND
NORTH WITH NAM AND RUC VARYING ON HANDLING OF CLEARING. RUC 925/850
MB RH PLOT HAVE HANDLED THINGS WELL AND LINGER LOW CLOUDS INTO LATE
EVENING WITH NAM MUCH QUICKER ERODING MSTR. WITH VIS SAT SHOWING
HINTS AT SOME THIN SPOTS STARTING TO APPEAR SO HAVE TRIED TO BLEND
THE 2 MODELS WHICH STILL BRINGS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE
EVENING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S DESPITE COLDEST AIR WITH THE
SYSTEM ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION AND WAA UNDERWAY LATER TONIGHT.
SOME OF THIS WAA WILL BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY AS LOTS OF SUNSHINE
ALLOWS FOR MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 900 MB AND MAYBE A BIT HIGHER
YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 50S. WOULDN`T BE ENTIRELY SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
UPR 50S TO NEAR 60 IN FAR W/SW AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
VERY FEW CHANGES TO OVERALL IDEA IN LONG TERM PERIOD. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
AND A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
RATHER WET PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL.
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 30S EAST UNDER RIDGE AXIS TO
UPPER 30S WEST WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF RIDGE WILL
BE INCREASING. THIS WARMING SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A LARGE DIURNAL
SWING ON MONDAY AS STRONG MIXING DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ALOFT IS
ALLOWED TO MIX TO SURFACE. SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AS WELL TO HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN AFTERNOON MAY TEMPER
WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING ON HOW THICK CLOUD CANOPY IS AND
TIMING OF IT. STILL EXPECT 60S ALL AREAS WITH RUN AT MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE AREA IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING.
NEXT OF MANY SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS BUT
STRONGEST FORCING TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO MAIN LOW. WARMEST TEMPS OF
THE DAY LIKELY IN MORNING BEFORE FROPA BUT DRYING PROFILES TUE
AFTERNOON SUGGEST SUN COULD ALLOW FOR SOME REBOUND SIMILAR TO WHAT
SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCED FRIDAY.
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR REMAINDER OF LONG TERM WITH
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVES RIPPLING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
THUS A CONTINUATION OF BROAD HIGH CHANCE POP CONTINUES WITH FURTHER
INCREASE LIKELY AS TIME NEARS. WITH INCREASING PWATS AND THETA E
AIR...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL PLAUSIBLE.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD LIKELY NEAR NORMAL SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL NORTH BUT IF FRONT WAVERS NORTH OR SOUTH...SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WOULD BE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
WITH PRECIP ISSUES NOW OUT OF THE WAY AT BOTH SITES FOCUS WILL BE
ON TIMING OF DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS.
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN/SNOW SHIELD CLEARED KFWA OVER THE PAST 20
MINUTES WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME DRIZZLE/VRY LGT RAIN LEFT IN
ITS WAKE. VSBYS WILL REMAIN MVFR DUE TO FOG...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
THE BIGGER ISSUE SITTING AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FT. A LOW RISE IN
CIGS IS EXPECTED...FIRST AT KSBN WHERE CIGS WILL COME UP TO 2500
TO 3000 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SLOWER PROGRESS OF LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED AT KFWA GIVEN PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW TO THE SE. HOWEVER
THEY WILL CATCH UP WITH TIME. RECENT RUC DATA HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
CLOUD COVER AND FOLLOWED CLOSELY THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE THE CLOUDS
DEPART VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
331 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY AND THE CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE WASHINGTON
D.C. AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION TODAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN THE
FAR SOUTH...MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AREAS...AND MAINLY
SNOW IN THE NORTH. AREAS IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION COULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION START OUT AS RAIN THEN SWITCH
TO A MIX BEFORE FINALLY ALL SNOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SMALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF. TONIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING IN TO THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
NO SIG ISSUES TO WORRY ABOUT FOR THE SHORT TERM AS RAIN/SNOW THAT
HAS FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WAS NEARLY
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO CLEARING TONIGHT AND
HOW WARM WE GET ON SUNDAY.
BY IN LARGE THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH REMAINING
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF HENRY/PUTNAM AND ALLEN COUNTIES IN
OHIO. SFC LOW WAS OVER NE TENNESSEE AT 18Z AND SLOWLY DEEPENING
WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND IT. THIS WILL KEEP
SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY EAST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE IN THE WEST AND
NORTH WITH NAM AND RUC VARYING ON HANDLING OF CLEARING. RUC 925/850
MB RH PLOT HAVE HANDLED THINGS WELL AND LINGER LOW CLOUDS INTO LATE
EVENING WITH NAM MUCH QUICKER ERODING MSTR. WITH VIS SAT SHOWING
HINTS AT SOME THIN SPOTS STARTING TO APPEAR SO HAVE TRIED TO BLEND
THE 2 MODELS WHICH STILL BRINGS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE
EVENING. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S DESPITE COLDEST AIR WITH THE
SYSTEM ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION AND WAA UNDERWAY LATER TONIGHT.
SOME OF THIS WAA WILL BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY AS LOTS OF SUNSHINE
ALLOWS FOR MIXING THROUGH AT LEAST 900 MB AND MAYBE A BIT HIGHER
YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 50S. WOULDN`T BE ENTIRELY SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
UPR 50S TO NEAR 60 IN FAR W/SW AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
VERY FEW CHANGES TO OVERALL IDEA IN LONG TERM PERIOD. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES
AND A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
RATHER WET PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL.
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 30S EAST UNDER RIDGE AXIS TO
UPPER 30S WEST WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF RIDGE WILL
BE INCREASING. THIS WARMING SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A LARGE DIURNAL
SWING ON MONDAY AS STRONG MIXING DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ALOFT IS
ALLOWED TO MIX TO SURFACE. SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AS WELL TO HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN AFTERNOON MAY TEMPER
WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES DEPENDING ON HOW THICK CLOUD CANOPY IS AND
TIMING OF IT. STILL EXPECT 60S ALL AREAS WITH RUN AT MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE AREA IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING.
NEXT OF MANY SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS BUT
STRONGEST FORCING TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO MAIN LOW. WARMEST TEMPS OF
THE DAY LIKELY IN MORNING BEFORE FROPA BUT DRYING PROFILES TUE
AFTERNOON SUGGEST SUN COULD ALLOW FOR SOME REBOUND SIMILAR TO WHAT
SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCED FRIDAY.
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR REMAINDER OF LONG TERM WITH
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVES RIPPLING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
THUS A CONTINUATION OF BROAD HIGH CHANCE POP CONTINUES WITH FURTHER
INCREASE LIKELY AS TIME NEARS. WITH INCREASING PWATS AND THETA E
AIR...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL PLAUSIBLE.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD LIKELY NEAR NORMAL SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL NORTH BUT IF FRONT WAVERS NORTH OR SOUTH...SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WOULD BE EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
WITH PRECIP ISSUES NOW OUT OF THE WAY AT BOTH SITES FOCUS WILL BE
ON TIMING OF DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS.
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN/SNOW SHIELD CLEARED KFWA OVER THE PAST 20
MINUTES WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME DRIZZLE/VRY LGT RAIN LEFT IN
ITS WAKE. VSBYS WILL REMAIN MVFR DUE TO FOG...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
THE BIGGER ISSUE SITTING AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FT. A LOW RISE IN
CIGS IS EXPECTED...FIRST AT KSBN WHERE CIGS WILL COME UP TO 2500
TO 3000 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SLOWER PROGRESS OF LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED AT KFWA GIVEN PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW TO THE SE. HOWEVER
THEY WILL CATCH UP WITH TIME. RECENT RUC DATA HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
CLOUD COVER AND FOLLOWED CLOSELY THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE THE CLOUDS
DEPART VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
147 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY AND THE CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE WASHINGTON
D.C. AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION TODAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN THE
FAR SOUTH...MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AREAS...AND MAINLY
SNOW IN THE NORTH. AREAS IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION COULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION START OUT AS RAIN THEN SWITCH
TO A MIX BEFORE FINALLY ALL SNOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SMALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF. TONIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING IN TO THE 20S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
BULK OF SNOW/RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BAND OF
HEAVIER PRECIP HAS FINALLY LOST ITS PUNCH BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
ANOTHER ONE TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE IN DEFORMATION ZONE FROM TOLEDO
TO CELINA OHIO. SPORADIC REPORTS HAVE COME IN WITH SPOTS THAT
RESIDE UNDER THESE BANDS SEEING A QUICK INCH OF SNOW IN AN HOUR ON
GRASSY SURFACES....INCLUDING FT WAYNE AIRPORT AND VAN WERT. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH PUTNAM/ALLEN COUNTY OHIO AREA WHERE INTENSITIES SEEM
TO BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY. RADAR/MODELS TRENDS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD
SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL ADJUST GRIDS TO REFLECT PRECIP TRENDS. ALSO TEMPS STILL LOOK
GOOD WITH STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY RISING TRENDS NOTED ONCE THE
PRECIP ENDS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART BUT WILL SLOWLY ERODE
FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
ATTN THIS PD FOCUSED ON IMPRESSIVE SW DISTURBANCE OVR WRN IA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND ITS SEWD AMPLIFICATION TWD THE MID ATL COAST BY SUN
AFTN.
00Z GUIDANCE SPECTRUM IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT W/HANDLING/EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYS THROUGH THE PD. HWVR SUBSTANTIAL LWR MS VALLEY CONVN AND
ASSOCD/MCV OVR WRN MS WILL CERTAINLY SQUASH BTR NWD MSTR RTN WELL
S/E OF CWA CONFINES TDA AND ILLUSTRATED QUITE WELL BY DWINDLING
SUCCESSIVE RUC SOLUTIONS. WHILE MID LVL CIRC INVOF DEEPENING SYS
ALOFT IS IMPRESSIVE...SUBSTANTIAL LL DRY ENTRAINMENT ALG SRN
PERIPHERY OF SE CANADA POLAR RIDGE XPCD. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE
DETRIMENTAL TO NW/NRN EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD AND BORNE OUT IN TIME
HGT CROSS SECTIONS/POINT SNDGS WHICH SUGGEST MORE OF A VIRGA BOMB
AND POTENTIAL BUST ALTOGETHER. THUS IN LIGHT OF SHRINKING IMPLIED
HIGHRES CONSENSUS PRECIP RATES POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IMPACTS OVR
SRN/SERN CWA LOOK MINIMAL. WILL IN THE LEAST TRUNCATE NWRN EXTENT OF
MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER AND ADJUST FOR PREFERRED TIMING.
OTRWS PER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FLW PATTN ALOFT AND UPSTREAM
EXTRAPOLATED SYS MOVEMENT WILL DROP PRIOR POP MENTION OVR FAR EAST
THIS EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
THERE ARE SURE SIGNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK OF A MILDER PATTERN...A
PATTERN THAT HAS SEEMINGLY EVADED THE AREA FOR THE PAST 4 MONTHS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE REGION MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST. GIVEN GFS AND ECMWF 850 MB FCST
TEMPS OF A SOLID 10C AND LITTLE REMAINING SNOW COVER...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TOP 60 DEGREES OVER NEARLY ALL AREAS. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS MEX. AFTER
MONDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL ENSUE...ACCOMPANIED BY WET
WEATHER. FAVORED THE ECMWF DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...
INCURSIONS OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONCERN
FOR FLOODING GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS...LIMITED VEGETATION AND
ADDITIONAL RAIN. A GROUND CORE SOIL SAMPLE HERE AT THE OFFICE LAST
NIGHT YIELDED NO FROZEN GROUND DOWN TO 14 INCHES WITH SATURATED
SOILS. WILL HOLD OFF WITH A HYDRO OUTLOOK FOR NOW...BUT A FRONT
SHOULD UNDULATE OVER THE AREA AS SHORT WAVES PASS. AFTER MONDAY...
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...BUT HIGHS COULD STILL TOP 60 DEGREES
AFTER MONDAY AS REFLECTED BY THE ECMWF IF THE FRONT MOVES BACK
NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
WITH PRECIP ISSUES NOW OUT OF THE WAY AT BOTH SITES FOCUS WILL BE
ON TIMING OF DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS.
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN/SNOW SHIELD CLEARED KFWA OVER THE PAST 20
MINUTES WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME DRIZZLE/VRY LGT RAIN LEFT IN
ITS WAKE. VSBYS WILL REMAIN MVFR DUE TO FOG...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
THE BIGGER ISSUE SITTING AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FT. A LOW RISE IN
CIGS IS EXPECTED...FIRST AT KSBN WHERE CIGS WILL COME UP TO 2500
TO 3000 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SLOWER PROGRESS OF LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED AT KFWA GIVEN PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW TO THE SE. HOWEVER
THEY WILL CATCH UP WITH TIME. RECENT RUC DATA HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
CLOUD COVER AND FOLLOWED CLOSELY THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE THE CLOUDS
DEPART VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1207 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY AND THE CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE WASHINGTON
D.C. AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION TODAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN THE
FAR SOUTH...MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AREAS...AND MAINLY
SNOW IN THE NORTH. AREAS IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION COULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION START OUT AS RAIN THEN SWITCH
TO A MIX BEFORE FINALLY ALL SNOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SMALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF. TONIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING IN TO THE 20S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
PRECIP SHIELD FROM THE SOUTH AND MESO BANDING THAT HAS BEEN A PAIN
THIS MORNING IN SOME SPOTS...WERE FINALLY COMING TOGETHER AND
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON IN E/SE PORTIONS. LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST BAND HAS SET UP HAVE SEEN VSBYS OF 1/4 TO 1/2
MILE AND UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS. HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIX INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
VARIABLE INTENSITY OF PRECIP WITH MAINLY SNOW IN THE MORE INTENSE
BANDS AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT ONSET AND DURING LIGHTER PERIODS.
WHILE ZONES AND GRIDS WILL COME BACK WITH SOME AREAS SEEING 1 TO 2
INCHES...THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DECEIVING SINCE ROADS SHOULD
REMAIN WET AND THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL ONLY OCCUR IN THE HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS. THE MAIN BAND OF INTEREST AS OF WRITING THIS WAS
LOCATED FROM NW JAY COUNTY THROUGH DECATUR TO NEAR PAULDING OHIO
WHERE VSBYS ARE LIKELY LOW AT TIMES.
AS FOR NW AREAS...ANY PRECIP WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. AREA OF CLEARING WAS TRYING TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS WI
AND NW MI WITH SKIES STILL HOPEFULLY CLEARING OUT SOME TO ALLOW
FOR TEMPS HEADING TOWARDS 40. WILL LEAVE TEMP FORECAST ALONE FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
ATTN THIS PD FOCUSED ON IMPRESSIVE SW DISTURBANCE OVR WRN IA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND ITS SEWD AMPLIFICATION TWD THE MID ATL COAST BY SUN
AFTN.
00Z GUIDANCE SPECTRUM IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT W/HANDLING/EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYS THROUGH THE PD. HWVR SUBSTANTIAL LWR MS VALLEY CONVN AND
ASSOCD/MCV OVR WRN MS WILL CERTAINLY SQUASH BTR NWD MSTR RTN WELL
S/E OF CWA CONFINES TDA AND ILLUSTRATED QUITE WELL BY DWINDLING
SUCCESSIVE RUC SOLUTIONS. WHILE MID LVL CIRC INVOF DEEPENING SYS
ALOFT IS IMPRESSIVE...SUBSTANTIAL LL DRY ENTRAINMENT ALG SRN
PERIPHERY OF SE CANADA POLAR RIDGE XPCD. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE
DETRIMENTAL TO NW/NRN EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD AND BORNE OUT IN TIME
HGT CROSS SECTIONS/POINT SNDGS WHICH SUGGEST MORE OF A VIRGA BOMB
AND POTENTIAL BUST ALTOGETHER. THUS IN LIGHT OF SHRINKING IMPLIED
HIGHRES CONSENSUS PRECIP RATES POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IMPACTS OVR
SRN/SERN CWA LOOK MINIMAL. WILL IN THE LEAST TRUNCATE NWRN EXTENT OF
MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER AND ADJUST FOR PREFERRED TIMING.
OTRWS PER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FLW PATTN ALOFT AND UPSTREAM
EXTRAPOLATED SYS MOVEMENT WILL DROP PRIOR POP MENTION OVR FAR EAST
THIS EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
THERE ARE SURE SIGNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK OF A MILDER PATTERN...A
PATTERN THAT HAS SEEMINGLY EVADED THE AREA FOR THE PAST 4 MONTHS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE REGION MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST. GIVEN GFS AND ECMWF 850 MB FCST
TEMPS OF A SOLID 10C AND LITTLE REMAINING SNOW COVER...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TOP 60 DEGREES OVER NEARLY ALL AREAS. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS MEX. AFTER
MONDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL ENSUE...ACCOMPANIED BY WET
WEATHER. FAVORED THE ECMWF DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...
INCURSIONS OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONCERN
FOR FLOODING GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS...LIMITED VEGETATION AND
ADDITIONAL RAIN. A GROUND CORE SOIL SAMPLE HERE AT THE OFFICE LAST
NIGHT YIELDED NO FROZEN GROUND DOWN TO 14 INCHES WITH SATURATED
SOILS. WILL HOLD OFF WITH A HYDRO OUTLOOK FOR NOW...BUT A FRONT
SHOULD UNDULATE OVER THE AREA AS SHORT WAVES PASS. AFTER MONDAY...
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...BUT HIGHS COULD STILL TOP 60 DEGREES
AFTER MONDAY AS REFLECTED BY THE ECMWF IF THE FRONT MOVES BACK
NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
NARROWING PCPN SHIELD OVR SE IL/SW IN ASSOCD W/APCH OF AMPLIFYING SW
ROLLING SEWD OUT SRN IA LOOKS TO BE MAKING A BEELINE FOR KFWA
TERMINAL BY DAYBREAK AND LINES UP EXCEEDINGLY WELL W/06Z LOCAL WRF.
THUS WILL STAND PAT W/PRIOR 06Z ISSUANCE. BRIEF PD OF IFR CONDS PSBL
TIMED W/CRUX OF SHRT DURATION MESOBAND BTWN 13-16Z ALTHOUGH PRECIP
INTENSITY STILL APPEARS TO BE OF INSUFFICIENT INTENSITY TO PROVIDE
AN ACCUMULATION ON HARD GROUND SFCS. OTRWS GENERAL MVFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST UNDERNEATH FNTL INVERSION ALOFT INTO MID
AFTN BFR DEEP SUBSIDENT DRYING DVLPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING MID LVL
TROUGH.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1035 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY AND THE CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE WASHINGTON
D.C. AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION TODAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN THE
FAR SOUTH...MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE CENTRAL AREAS...AND MAINLY
SNOW IN THE NORTH. AREAS IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PART OF THE
REGION COULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION START OUT AS RAIN THEN SWITCH
TO A MIX BEFORE FINALLY ALL SNOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SMALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF. TONIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING IN TO THE 20S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
ZONES/GRIDS UPDATED TO EXPAND PRECIP AS FAR NW AS SOUTH BEND AND
ADJUST TRENDS IN SE AREAS.
IMPRESSIVE LIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH NARROW
BAND OF HIGHER RETURNS SHOWING UP...RESULTING IN MAINLY SNOW AT
THE SFC. BAND INITIALLY STARTED FROM ROUGHLY GRISSOM ARB TO WARSAW
AND HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST WITH TIME. EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THE BAND AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD MOVING IN FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA WAS BEING HAMPERED BY JUST ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND
THE DRY NE FLOW. RUC DID AN AWESOME JOB OF CAPTURING THIS
SETUP...WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON THAT MUCH MORE
TROUBLESOME. 11Z RUC TAKES THE CURRENT BAND AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES
IT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND THE MAIN AREA ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
JUST GRAZING LIMA. HRRR MATCHES CLOSER TO WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
GRIDDED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE
COULD GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THIS...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS AREA
WILL SLOWLY FILL IN WITH ALL PRECIP FOCUSING IN SE AREAS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIED TO CAPTURE CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE...WITH STRUGGLE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY TO
OCCUR MUCH OF THE DAY. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE
ANY IMPACTS AS SFC TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
ATTN THIS PD FOCUSED ON IMPRESSIVE SW DISTURBANCE OVR WRN IA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND ITS SEWD AMPLIFICATION TWD THE MID ATL COAST BY SUN
AFTN.
00Z GUIDANCE SPECTRUM IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT W/HANDLING/EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYS THROUGH THE PD. HWVR SUBSTANTIAL LWR MS VALLEY CONVN AND
ASSOCD/MCV OVR WRN MS WILL CERTAINLY SQUASH BTR NWD MSTR RTN WELL
S/E OF CWA CONFINES TDA AND ILLUSTRATED QUITE WELL BY DWINDLING
SUCCESSIVE RUC SOLUTIONS. WHILE MID LVL CIRC INVOF DEEPENING SYS
ALOFT IS IMPRESSIVE...SUBSTANTIAL LL DRY ENTRAINMENT ALG SRN
PERIPHERY OF SE CANADA POLAR RIDGE XPCD. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE
DETRIMENTAL TO NW/NRN EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD AND BORNE OUT IN TIME
HGT CROSS SECTIONS/POINT SNDGS WHICH SUGGEST MORE OF A VIRGA BOMB
AND POTENTIAL BUST ALTOGETHER. THUS IN LIGHT OF SHRINKING IMPLIED
HIGHRES CONSENSUS PRECIP RATES POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IMPACTS OVR
SRN/SERN CWA LOOK MINIMAL. WILL IN THE LEAST TRUNCATE NWRN EXTENT OF
MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER AND ADJUST FOR PREFERRED TIMING.
OTRWS PER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FLW PATTN ALOFT AND UPSTREAM
EXTRAPOLATED SYS MOVEMENT WILL DROP PRIOR POP MENTION OVR FAR EAST
THIS EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
THERE ARE SURE SIGNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK OF A MILDER PATTERN...A
PATTERN THAT HAS SEEMINGLY EVADED THE AREA FOR THE PAST 4 MONTHS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE REGION MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST. GIVEN GFS AND ECMWF 850 MB FCST
TEMPS OF A SOLID 10C AND LITTLE REMAINING SNOW COVER...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TOP 60 DEGREES OVER NEARLY ALL AREAS. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS MEX. AFTER
MONDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL ENSUE...ACCOMPANIED BY WET
WEATHER. FAVORED THE ECMWF DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...
INCURSIONS OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONCERN
FOR FLOODING GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS...LIMITED VEGETATION AND
ADDITIONAL RAIN. A GROUND CORE SOIL SAMPLE HERE AT THE OFFICE LAST
NIGHT YIELDED NO FROZEN GROUND DOWN TO 14 INCHES WITH SATURATED
SOILS. WILL HOLD OFF WITH A HYDRO OUTLOOK FOR NOW...BUT A FRONT
SHOULD UNDULATE OVER THE AREA AS SHORT WAVES PASS. AFTER MONDAY...
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...BUT HIGHS COULD STILL TOP 60 DEGREES
AFTER MONDAY AS REFLECTED BY THE ECMWF IF THE FRONT MOVES BACK
NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
NARROWING PCPN SHIELD OVR SE IL/SW IN ASSOCD W/APCH OF AMPLIFYING SW
ROLLING SEWD OUT SRN IA LOOKS TO BE MAKING A BEELINE FOR KFWA
TERMINAL BY DAYBREAK AND LINES UP EXCEEDINGLY WELL W/06Z LOCAL WRF.
THUS WILL STAND PAT W/PRIOR 06Z ISSUANCE. BRIEF PD OF IFR CONDS PSBL
TIMED W/CRUX OF SHRT DURATION MESOBAND BTWN 13-16Z ALTHOUGH PRECIP
INTENSITY STILL APPEARS TO BE OF INSUFFICIENT INTENSITY TO PROVIDE
AN ACCUMULATION ON HARD GROUND SFCS. OTRWS GENERAL MVFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST UNDERNEATH FNTL INVERSION ALOFT INTO MID
AFTN BFR DEEP SUBSIDENT DRYING DVLPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING MID LVL
TROUGH.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
939 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS PARTS THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE EXPECTED
SOUTHEAST OF US HIGHWAY 24.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
ZONES/GRIDS UPDATED TO EXPAND PRECIP AS FAR NW AS SOUTH BEND AND
ADJUST TRENDS IN SE AREAS.
IMPRESSIVE LIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH NARROW
BAND OF HIGHER RETURNS SHOWING UP...RESULTING IN MAINLY SNOW AT
THE SFC. BAND INITIALLY STARTED FROM ROUGHLY GRISSOM ARB TO WARSAW
AND HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST WITH TIME. EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THE BAND AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD MOVING IN FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA WAS BEING HAMPERED BY JUST ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND
THE DRY NE FLOW. RUC DID AN AWESOME JOB OF CAPTURING THIS
SETUP...WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON THAT MUCH MORE
TROUBLESOME. 11Z RUC TAKES THE CURRENT BAND AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES
IT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND THE MAIN AREA ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
JUST GRAZING LIMA. HRRR MATCHES CLOSER TO WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
GRIDDED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE
COULD GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THIS...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS AREA
WILL SLOWLY FILL IN WITH ALL PRECIP FOCUSING IN SE AREAS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIED TO CAPTURE CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE...WITH STRUGGLE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY TO
OCCUR MUCH OF THE DAY. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE
ANY IMPACTS AS SFC TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
ATTN THIS PD FOCUSED ON IMPRESSIVE SW DISTURBANCE OVR WRN IA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND ITS SEWD AMPLIFICATION TWD THE MID ATL COAST BY SUN
AFTN.
00Z GUIDANCE SPECTRUM IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT W/HANDLING/EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYS THROUGH THE PD. HWVR SUBSTANTIAL LWR MS VALLEY CONVN AND
ASSOCD/MCV OVR WRN MS WILL CERTAINLY SQUASH BTR NWD MSTR RTN WELL
S/E OF CWA CONFINES TDA AND ILLUSTRATED QUITE WELL BY DWINDLING
SUCCESSIVE RUC SOLUTIONS. WHILE MID LVL CIRC INVOF DEEPENING SYS
ALOFT IS IMPRESSIVE...SUBSTANTIAL LL DRY ENTRAINMENT ALG SRN
PERIPHERY OF SE CANADA POLAR RIDGE XPCD. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE
DETRIMENTAL TO NW/NRN EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD AND BORNE OUT IN TIME
HGT CROSS SECTIONS/POINT SNDGS WHICH SUGGEST MORE OF A VIRGA BOMB
AND POTENTIAL BUST ALTOGETHER. THUS IN LIGHT OF SHRINKING IMPLIED
HIGHRES CONSENSUS PRECIP RATES POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IMPACTS OVR
SRN/SERN CWA LOOK MINIMAL. WILL IN THE LEAST TRUNCATE NWRN EXTENT OF
MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER AND ADJUST FOR PREFERRED TIMING.
OTRWS PER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FLW PATTN ALOFT AND UPSTREAM
EXTRAPOLATED SYS MOVEMENT WILL DROP PRIOR POP MENTION OVR FAR EAST
THIS EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
THERE ARE SURE SIGNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK OF A MILDER PATTERN...A
PATTERN THAT HAS SEEMINGLY EVADED THE AREA FOR THE PAST 4 MONTHS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE REGION MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST. GIVEN GFS AND ECMWF 850 MB FCST
TEMPS OF A SOLID 10C AND LITTLE REMAINING SNOW COVER...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TOP 60 DEGREES OVER NEARLY ALL AREAS. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS MEX. AFTER
MONDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL ENSUE...ACCOMPANIED BY WET
WEATHER. FAVORED THE ECMWF DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...
INCURSIONS OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONCERN
FOR FLOODING GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS...LIMITED VEGETATION AND
ADDITIONAL RAIN. A GROUND CORE SOIL SAMPLE HERE AT THE OFFICE LAST
NIGHT YIELDED NO FROZEN GROUND DOWN TO 14 INCHES WITH SATURATED
SOILS. WILL HOLD OFF WITH A HYDRO OUTLOOK FOR NOW...BUT A FRONT
SHOULD UNDULATE OVER THE AREA AS SHORT WAVES PASS. AFTER MONDAY...
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...BUT HIGHS COULD STILL TOP 60 DEGREES
AFTER MONDAY AS REFLECTED BY THE ECMWF IF THE FRONT MOVES BACK
NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
NARROWING PCPN SHIELD OVR SE IL/SW IN ASSOCD W/APCH OF AMPLIFYING SW
ROLLING SEWD OUT SRN IA LOOKS TO BE MAKING A BEELINE FOR KFWA
TERMINAL BY DAYBREAK AND LINES UP EXCEEDINGLY WELL W/06Z LOCAL WRF.
THUS WILL STAND PAT W/PRIOR 06Z ISSUANCE. BRIEF PD OF IFR CONDS PSBL
TIMED W/CRUX OF SHRT DURATION MESOBAND BTWN 13-16Z ALTHOUGH PRECIP
INTENSITY STILL APPEARS TO BE OF INSUFFICIENT INTENSITY TO PROVIDE
AN ACCUMULATION ON HARD GROUND SFCS. OTRWS GENERAL MVFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST UNDERNEATH FNTL INVERSION ALOFT INTO MID
AFTN BFR DEEP SUBSIDENT DRYING DVLPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING MID LVL
TROUGH.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
630 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS PARTS THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT
TIMES. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE EXPECTED
SOUTHEAST OF US HIGHWAY 24.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
ATTN THIS PD FOCUSED ON IMPRESSIVE SW DISTURBANCE OVR WRN IA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND ITS SEWD AMPLIFICATION TWD THE MID ATL COAST BY SUN
AFTN.
00Z GUIDANCE SPECTRUM IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT W/HANDLING/EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYS THROUGH THE PD. HWVR SUBSTANTIAL LWR MS VALLEY CONVN AND
ASSOCD/MCV OVR WRN MS WILL CERTAINLY SQUASH BTR NWD MSTR RTN WELL
S/E OF CWA CONFINES TDA AND ILLUSTRATED QUITE WELL BY DWINDLING
SUCCESSIVE RUC SOLUTIONS. WHILE MID LVL CIRC INVOF DEEPENING SYS
ALOFT IS IMPRESSIVE...SUBSTANTIAL LL DRY ENTRAINMENT ALG SRN
PERIPHERY OF SE CANADA POLAR RIDGE XPCD. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE
DETRIMENTAL TO NW/NRN EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD AND BORNE OUT IN TIME
HGT CROSS SECTIONS/POINT SNDGS WHICH SUGGEST MORE OF A VIRGA BOMB
AND POTENTIAL BUST ALTOGETHER. THUS IN LIGHT OF SHRINKING IMPLIED
HIGHRES CONSENSUS PRECIP RATES POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IMPACTS OVR
SRN/SERN CWA LOOK MINIMAL. WILL IN THE LEAST TRUNCATE NWRN EXTENT OF
MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER AND ADJUST FOR PREFERRED TIMING.
OTRWS PER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FLW PATTN ALOFT AND UPSTREAM
EXTRAPOLATED SYS MOVEMENT WILL DROP PRIOR POP MENTION OVR FAR EAST
THIS EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
THERE ARE SURE SIGNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK OF A MILDER PATTERN...A
PATTERN THAT HAS SEEMINGLY EVADED THE AREA FOR THE PAST 4 MONTHS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE REGION MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST. GIVEN GFS AND ECMWF 850 MB FCST
TEMPS OF A SOLID 10C AND LITTLE REMAINING SNOW COVER...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TOP 60 DEGREES OVER NEARLY ALL AREAS. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS MEX. AFTER
MONDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL ENSUE...ACCOMPANIED BY WET
WEATHER. FAVORED THE ECMWF DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...
INCURSIONS OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONCERN
FOR FLOODING GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS...LIMITED VEGETATION AND
ADDITIONAL RAIN. A GROUND CORE SOIL SAMPLE HERE AT THE OFFICE LAST
NIGHT YIELDED NO FROZEN GROUND DOWN TO 14 INCHES WITH SATURATED
SOILS. WILL HOLD OFF WITH A HYDRO OUTLOOK FOR NOW...BUT A FRONT
SHOULD UNDULATE OVER THE AREA AS SHORT WAVES PASS. AFTER MONDAY...
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...BUT HIGHS COULD STILL TOP 60 DEGREES
AFTER MONDAY AS REFLECTED BY THE ECMWF IF THE FRONT MOVES BACK
NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
NARROWING PCPN SHIELD OVR SE IL/SW IN ASSOCD W/APCH OF AMPLIFYING SW
ROLLING SEWD OUT SRN IA LOOKS TO BE MAKING A BEELINE FOR KFWA
TERMINAL BY DAYBREAK AND LINES UP EXCEEDINGLY WELL W/06Z LOCAL WRF.
THUS WILL STAND PAT W/PRIOR 06Z ISSUANCE. BRIEF PD OF IFR CONDS PSBL
TIMED W/CRUX OF SHRT DURATION MESOBAND BTWN 13-16Z ALTHOUGH PRECIP
INTENSITY STILL APPEARS TO BE OF INSUFFICIENT INTENSITY TO PROVIDE
AN ACCUMULATION ON HARD GROUND SFCS. OTRWS GENERAL MVFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST UNDERNEATH FNTL INVERSION ALOFT INTO MID
AFTN BFR DEEP SUBSIDENT DRYING DVLPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING MID LVL
TROUGH.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
437 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HOURS. THE SNOW
MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO AN INCH ARE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF US HIGHWAY 24. ONLY A TRACE
OF SNOW EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
ATTN THIS PD FOCUSED ON IMPRESSIVE SW DISTURBANCE OVR WRN IA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND ITS SEWD AMPLIFICATION TWD THE MID ATL COAST BY SUN
AFTN.
00Z GUIDANCE SPECTRUM IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT W/HANDLING/EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYS THROUGH THE PD. HWVR SUBSTANTIAL LWR MS VALLEY CONVN AND
ASSOCD/MCV OVR WRN MS WILL CERTAINLY SQUASH BTR NWD MSTR RTN WELL
S/E OF CWA CONFINES TDA AND ILLUSTRATED QUITE WELL BY DWINDLING
SUCCESSIVE RUC SOLUTIONS. WHILE MID LVL CIRC INVOF DEEPENING SYS
ALOFT IS IMPRESSIVE...SUBSTANTIAL LL DRY ENTRAINMENT ALG SRN
PERIPHERY OF SE CANADA POLAR RIDGE XPCD. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE
DETRIMENTAL TO NW/NRN EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD AND BORNE OUT IN TIME
HGT CROSS SECTIONS/POINT SNDGS WHICH SUGGEST MORE OF A VIRGA BOMB
AND POTENTIAL BUST ALTOGETHER. THUS IN LIGHT OF SHRINKING IMPLIED
HIGHRES CONSENSUS PRECIP RATES POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IMPACTS OVR
SRN/SERN CWA LOOK MINIMAL. WILL IN THE LEAST TRUNCATE NWRN EXTENT OF
MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER AND ADJUST FOR PREFERRED TIMING.
OTRWS PER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FLW PATTN ALOFT AND UPSTREAM
EXTRAPOLATED SYS MOVEMENT WILL DROP PRIOR POP MENTION OVR FAR EAST
THIS EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
THERE ARE SURE SIGNS THIS UPCOMING WEEK OF A MILDER PATTERN...A
PATTERN THAT HAS SEEMINGLY EVADED THE AREA FOR THE PAST 4 MONTHS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE REGION MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST. GIVEN GFS AND ECMWF 850 MB FCST
TEMPS OF A SOLID 10C AND LITTLE REMAINING SNOW COVER...HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TOP 60 DEGREES OVER NEARLY ALL AREAS. THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS MEX. AFTER
MONDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL ENSUE...ACCOMPANIED BY WET
WEATHER. FAVORED THE ECMWF DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...
INCURSIONS OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONCERN
FOR FLOODING GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS...LIMITED VEGETATION AND
ADDITIONAL RAIN. A GROUND CORE SOIL SAMPLE HERE AT THE OFFICE LAST
NIGHT YIELDED NO FROZEN GROUND DOWN TO 14 INCHES WITH SATURATED
SOILS. WILL HOLD OFF WITH A HYDRO OUTLOOK FOR NOW...BUT A FRONT
SHOULD UNDULATE OVER THE AREA AS SHORT WAVES PASS. AFTER MONDAY...
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...BUT HIGHS COULD STILL TOP 60 DEGREES
AFTER MONDAY AS REFLECTED BY THE ECMWF IF THE FRONT MOVES BACK
NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
SUBSTANTIAL POST FNTL INVERSION BENEATH INCREASING MID LVL MSTR
ADVTN INADV OF AMPLIFYING SW DISTURBANCE OVR WRN IA WILL LOCK IN
MVFR STRATOCU CIGS THROUGH SAT MORNING. VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT
KFWA AS BURGEONING MID LVL CIRC DVLPS TWD 12Z BUT XPCD TO RAPIDLY
BREAKDOWN TWD 18Z. STG SUBSIDENT DRYING WIL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF EWD
EJECTING SYS LT THIS AFTN W/VFR CONDS DVLPG INTO ERLY EVENING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1252 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED COMPACT VORT MAXIMA
WAS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WV IMAGES MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND
WESTERN MO AT 07Z. AREA RADARS INDICATED A FEW WEAK ECHOES IN THE
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM SW WI ALONG THE MS RIVER TO W
CENTRAL IL. AREA OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET TO INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND FROM THESE WEAK RETURNS. AN INVERTED TROUGH AT
THE SURFACE...REACHING FROM THE CENTRAL IL INTO EAST CENTRAL
IA...WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO KEEP THE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THAT NEVER LEFT THE AREA YESTERDAY IN PLACE. THE
00Z KDVN SOUNDING SHOWED AN ASSOCIATED SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
TRAPPED JUST BELOW AN INVERSION AND WEDGE OF DRY AIR ABOVE 900 MB.
UPSTREAM...A LARGE UPPER LOW WAS OFF THE BC COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REACHED FROM NEB INTO NORTHERN
MN. UNDER THIS RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS FEATURED DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...CONTRASTING TO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS ON HOW FAST CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TODAY AND THE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. THE ADVANCING UPSTREAM
UPPER RIDGE AND DEEPENING AND PHASING OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL RESULT IN A DEVELOPING MORE FAVORABLE
SUBSIDENCE REGIME THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO BE A
SLOW PROCESS...AND MAY NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING UNTIL
AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING NORTHEAST
THROUGH KY AND TN WILL IS SHOWN KEEPING AT LEAST A WEAK CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN IA UNTIL MIDDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW THE LINGERING INVERSION ALOFT...WILL KEEP
THE STRATUS HOLDING IN PLACE OVER MOST THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS...CURRENTLY SLOWLY ADVANCING
E-SE ACROSS N CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN IA WILL LIKELY COME TO A HALT
OVER CENTRAL IA INTO EASTERN IA THIS MORNING. FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS...AND AT THIS TIME ONLY THE RAP 900
MB RH FIELD SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND. WILL THUS KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GOING THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD BRINGING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR. ACCOUNTING FOR THIS
DELAYED WARMING...AND WEAK MIXING UNDER THE RIDGE...HAVE HELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...FROM THE MID 40S NORTH
TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR WITH ADVANCING HIGH CLOUDS
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TOWARD MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...
INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST 5
TO 10 KTS TOWARD MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT AN INITIAL COOL-DOWN AFTER SUNSET...THEN STEADY TO
POSSIBLY EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES TOWARD SUNRISE. WITH MOST MODELS
OVERALL TRENDING TOO MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
THE BETTER INITIALIZING ECMWF WITH ITS LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S
BEFORE THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THIS POINTS TOWARD LOWER MINS THAN
MOS...AND HAVE GONE WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S EAST TO LOWER 30S IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MILD WITH A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE MONDAY...THEN FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR SIGNIFICANT TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AVERAGE WITH STILL QUESTIONS
ON PHASING OF PACIFIC ENERGY ARRIVING NEXT FEW DAYS. AGAIN POOR BL
ISSUES THAT ARE OFF BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR BOTH T AND T/D THAT MOS OR
OTHER ALGORITHMS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS HANDLING. TREND IS FOR A DEEPER
TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC SW BY TUESDAY WHICH IS A GOOD REGIME FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY RAIN WITH STALLED FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH FOR PROLONGED UPGLIDE. VARIANCES CONTINUE WITH HI-RES ECMWF
BY FAR THE FURTHEST NORTH. RUN TO RUN TRENDS AND VARIANCES SUPPORTS
A MIX OF THE UKMET/GFS /GEM-NH AND TO DISREGARD THE HI-RES ECMWF.
TRENDS ARE FOR NORTH PORTIONS TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF A
MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW WHICH WILL TAKE ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO BETTER
ASCERTAIN. THIS 2 TO 3 DAY EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EVENT...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS
SINCE LAST FALL. CONDITIONS OF THIS TYPE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WILL
HELP REPLENISH THE MODESTLY DRY SOILS AND PREPARE THE GROUND FOR
SPRING.
SUNDAY...EXPECT MODERATE BL MIXING AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP
TO 15 TO 25+ PH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRENDS STILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 50 PERCENT TO
LOCALLY NEAR 40 PERCENT. THIS INDICATES GFDI VALUES INTO VERY HIGH
CATEGORY FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE TO LITTLE TO NO GREENING OF VEGETATION. THIS
WILL REMAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT. SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH TO MAKE FOR THE MILDEST NIGHT IN MANY MONTHS DESPITE FAIR SKIES
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S....TO AROUND 50F SOUTH.
MONDAY...NEXT VIGOROUS AND FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S.
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...KEEPING MID CHANCE POPS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MAINLY PM STORMS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ALLOWING FOR LOWER PM DEWPOINTS.
MID LEVEL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WITH BASES AOA 6K AGL. LOW FREEZING
LEVEL STILL SUGGESTS NON-SEVERE STORMS WITH SOME PEA HAIL POSSIBLE AS
ANY STORMS WOULD FIRE OVER CWA IN MID/LATE PM HOURS. RAISED HIGHS BY
2-3 DEGREES INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. WINDS MID DAY SHOULD BECOME QUITE
WINDY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH. RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 50 PERCENT THAT MAY
SUPPORT NEAR VERY HIGH CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER BUT SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD AMELIORATE A BIT ALONG WITH HIGHER RH VALUES. MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DELAYED TIMING OF COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO MID/LATE EVENING AND GUSTY
NW WINDS TO LIMIT COOLING BY MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS MINS NEAR GUIDANCE
BLEND...OR UPPER 20S FAR NW TO MIDDLE 30S FAR SE SECTIONS.
TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. COOLER AND MOSTLY FAIR
SKIES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY OF 45 TO 50 DEGREES AND LIGHT NE WINDS AHEAD
OF NEXT...LARGE...SLOW MOVING AND QUITE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
DEEP TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM CALIFORNIA. TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING
CLOUDS STILL SUGGEST LOWS TO OCCUR NEAR OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT....THEN
RISING TOWARD MORNING WITH CLOUDS RAIN AND INCREASING EAST WINDS.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING A MIX OF
SNOW BY MORNING...OR JUST A WET SNOW. THIS REMAINS A POOR CONFIDENCE
ON MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTH SECTIONS. THIS QUESTION SHOULD BE
RESOLVED NEXT 12-24 HOURS. LOCAL TOOLS DO SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
MAY OCCUR ON EXPOSED SURFACES ATTM BUT AREA TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TO LIMIT IMPACTS ON ROADWAYS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROLONGED PERIODS OF CLOUDY...COLD AND EPISODES
OF RAIN OR MOSTLY RAIN WITH A RISK OF A MIX NORTH SECTIONS OR EVEN
A WET SNOW BY FRIDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. REVIEW OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA TOOLS INDICATE
1 TO LOCALLY NEAR 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR MOSTLY RAIN OVER THIS PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
EVEN MORE MOISTURE AND MAY RESULT IN EVEN SLIGHTLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
OF RAIN AND EVEN A WET SNOW AS OPEN GULF MOISTURE HAS MORE TIME TO
POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING DUE TO
ITS STRENGTH...CURRENT TRACK TO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE OVER
EASTERN IL BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. AN AREA STRATUS WITH BASES IN THE 2
TO 3KFT RANGE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. THE STRATUS WAS MOVING SOUTH AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF CU
WITH BASES MAINLY ABOVE 3KFT WAS ALSO LOCATED OVER EASTERN IOWA
FROM WEST OF KDBQ SOUTH THROUGH KFFL AND WAS SUPPORTED BY WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WITH LOSS OF
HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE CU SHOULD DISSIPATE. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED. MID-MORNING SUNDAY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN IOWA.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
645 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED COMPACT VORT MAXIMA
WAS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WV IMAGES MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND
WESTERN MO AT 07Z. AREA RADARS INDICATED A FEW WEAK ECHOES IN THE
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM SW WI ALONG THE MS RIVER TO W
CENTRAL IL. AREA OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET TO INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND FROM THESE WEAK RETURNS. AN INVERTED TROUGH AT
THE SURFACE...REACHING FROM THE CENTRAL IL INTO EAST CENTRAL
IA...WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO KEEP THE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THAT NEVER LEFT THE AREA YESTERDAY IN PLACE. THE
00Z KDVN SOUNDING SHOWED AN ASSOCIATED SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
TRAPPED JUST BELOW AN INVERSION AND WEDGE OF DRY AIR ABOVE 900 MB.
UPSTREAM...A LARGE UPPER LOW WAS OFF THE BC COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REACHED FROM NEB INTO NORTHERN
MN. UNDER THIS RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS FEATURED DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...CONTRASTING TO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS ON HOW FAST CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TODAY AND THE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. THE ADVANCING UPSTREAM
UPPER RIDGE AND DEEPENING AND PHASING OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL RESULT IN A DEVELOPING MORE FAVORABLE
SUBSIDENCE REGIME THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO BE A
SLOW PROCESS...AND MAY NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING UNTIL
AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING NORTHEAST
THROUGH KY AND TN WILL IS SHOWN KEEPING AT LEAST A WEAK CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN IA UNTIL MIDDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW THE LINGERING INVERSION ALOFT...WILL KEEP
THE STRATUS HOLDING IN PLACE OVER MOST THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS...CURRENTLY SLOWLY ADVANCING
E-SE ACROSS N CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN IA WILL LIKELY COME TO A HALT
OVER CENTRAL IA INTO EASTERN IA THIS MORNING. FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS...AND AT THIS TIME ONLY THE RAP 900
MB RH FIELD SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND. WILL THUS KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GOING THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD BRINGING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR. ACCOUNTING FOR THIS
DELAYED WARMING...AND WEAK MIXING UNDER THE RIDGE...HAVE HELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...FROM THE MID 40S NORTH
TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR WITH ADVANCING HIGH CLOUDS
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TOWARD MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...
INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST 5
TO 10 KTS TOWARD MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT AN INITIAL COOL-DOWN AFTER SUNSET...THEN STEADY TO
POSSIBLY EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES TOWARD SUNRISE. WITH MOST MODELS
OVERALL TRENDING TOO MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
THE BETTER INITIALIZING ECMWF WITH ITS LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S
BEFORE THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THIS POINTS TOWARD LOWER MINS THAN
MOS...AND HAVE GONE WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S EAST TO LOWER 30S IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MILD WITH A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE MONDAY...THEN FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR SIGNIFICANT TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AVERAGE WITH STILL QUESTIONS
ON PHASING OF PACIFIC ENERGY ARRIVING NEXT FEW DAYS. AGAIN POOR BL
ISSUES THAT ARE OFF BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR BOTH T AND T/D THAT MOS OR
OTHER ALGORITHMS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS HANDLING. TREND IS FOR A DEEPER
TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC SW BY TUESDAY WHICH IS A GOOD REGIME FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY RAIN WITH STALLED FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH FOR PROLONGED UPGLIDE. VARIANCES CONTINUE WITH HI-RES ECMWF
BY FAR THE FURTHEST NORTH. RUN TO RUN TRENDS AND VARIANCES SUPPORTS
A MIX OF THE UKMET/GFS /GEM-NH AND TO DISREGARD THE HI-RES ECMWF.
TRENDS ARE FOR NORTH PORTIONS TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF A
MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW WHICH WILL TAKE ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO BETTER
ASCERTAIN. THIS 2 TO 3 DAY EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EVENT...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS
SINCE LAST FALL. CONDITIONS OF THIS TYPE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WILL
HELP REPLENISH THE MODESTLY DRY SOILS AND PREPARE THE GROUND FOR
SPRING.
SUNDAY...EXPECT MODERATE BL MIXING AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP
TO 15 TO 25+ PH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRENDS STILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 50 PERCENT TO
LOCALLY NEAR 40 PERCENT. THIS INDICATES GFDI VALUES INTO VERY HIGH
CATEGORY FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE TO LITTLE TO NO GREENING OF VEGETATION. THIS
WILL REMAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT. SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH TO MAKE FOR THE MILDEST NIGHT IN MANY MONTHS DESPITE FAIR SKIES
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S....TO AROUND 50F SOUTH.
MONDAY...NEXT VIGOROUS AND FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S.
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...KEEPING MID CHANCE POPS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MAINLY PM STORMS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ALLOWING FOR LOWER PM DEWPOINTS.
MID LEVEL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WITH BASES AOA 6K AGL. LOW FREEZING
LEVEL STILL SUGGESTS NON-SEVERE STORMS WITH SOME PEA HAIL POSSIBLE AS
ANY STORMS WOULD FIRE OVER CWA IN MID/LATE PM HOURS. RAISED HIGHS BY
2-3 DEGREES INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. WINDS MID DAY SHOULD BECOME QUITE
WINDY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH. RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 50 PERCENT THAT MAY
SUPPORT NEAR VERY HIGH CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER BUT SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD AMELIORATE A BIT ALONG WITH HIGHER RH VALUES. MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DELAYED TIMING OF COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO MID/LATE EVENING AND GUSTY
NW WINDS TO LIMIT COOLING BY MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS MINS NEAR GUIDANCE
BLEND...OR UPPER 20S FAR NW TO MIDDLE 30S FAR SE SECTIONS.
TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. COOLER AND MOSTLY FAIR
SKIES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY OF 45 TO 50 DEGREES AND LIGHT NE WINDS AHEAD
OF NEXT...LARGE...SLOW MOVING AND QUITE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
DEEP TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM CALIFORNIA. TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING
CLOUDS STILL SUGGEST LOWS TO OCCUR NEAR OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT....THEN
RISING TOWARD MORNING WITH CLOUDS RAIN AND INCREASING EAST WINDS.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING A MIX OF
SNOW BY MORNING...OR JUST A WET SNOW. THIS REMAINS A POOR CONFIDENCE
ON MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTH SECTIONS. THIS QUESTION SHOULD BE
RESOLVED NEXT 12-24 HOURS. LOCAL TOOLS DO SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
MAY OCCUR ON EXPOSED SURFACES ATTM BUT AREA TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TO LIMIT IMPACTS ON ROADWAYS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROLONGED PERIODS OF CLOUDY...COLD AND EPISODES
OF RAIN OR MOSTLY RAIN WITH A RISK OF A MIX NORTH SECTIONS OR EVEN
A WET SNOW BY FRIDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. REVIEW OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA TOOLS INDICATE
1 TO LOCALLY NEAR 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR MOSTLY RAIN OVER THIS PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
EVEN MORE MOISTURE AND MAY RESULT IN EVEN SLIGHTLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
OF RAIN AND EVEN A WET SNOW AS OPEN GULF MOISTURE HAS MORE TIME TO
POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING DUE TO
ITS STRENGTH...CURRENT TRACK TO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
LOW CLOUDS COVERING EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND PUSH EASTWARD TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS CLEARING. TEMPO GROUPS WERE
UTILIZED IN THE TAFS TO DEMONSTRATE THIS UNCERTAIN LATE MORNING
TRANSITION FROM MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT DBQ...MLI AND BRL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
425 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED COMPACT VORT MAXIMA
WAS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WV IMAGES MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND
WESTERN MO AT 07Z. AREA RADARS INDICATED A FEW WEAK ECHOES IN THE
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM SW WI ALONG THE MS RIVER TO W
CENTRAL IL. AREA OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET TO INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND FROM THESE WEAK RETURNS. AN INVERTED TROUGH AT
THE SURFACE...REACHING FROM THE CENTRAL IL INTO EAST CENTRAL
IA...WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO KEEP THE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THAT NEVER LEFT THE AREA YESTERDAY IN PLACE. THE
00Z KDVN SOUNDING SHOWED AN ASSOCIATED SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
TRAPPED JUST BELOW AN INVERSION AND WEDGE OF DRY AIR ABOVE 900 MB.
UPSTREAM...A LARGE UPPER LOW WAS OFF THE BC COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REACHED FROM NEB INTO NORTHERN
MN. UNDER THIS RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS FEATURED DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...CONTRASTING TO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS ON HOW FAST CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TODAY AND THE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. THE ADVANCING UPSTREAM
UPPER RIDGE AND DEEPENING AND PHASING OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL RESULT IN A DEVELOPING MORE FAVORABLE
SUBSIDENCE REGIME THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO BE A
SLOW PROCESS...AND MAY NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING UNTIL
AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING NORTHEAST
THROUGH KY AND TN WILL IS SHOWN KEEPING AT LEAST A WEAK CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN IA UNTIL MIDDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW THE LINGERING INVERSION ALOFT...WILL KEEP
THE STRATUS HOLDING IN PLACE OVER MOST THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS...CURRENTLY SLOWLY ADVANCING
E-SE ACROSS N CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN IA WILL LIKELY COME TO A HALT
OVER CENTRAL IA INTO EASTERN IA THIS MORNING. FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS...AND AT THIS TIME ONLY THE RAP 900
MB RH FIELD SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND. WILL THUS KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GOING THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD BRINGING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR. ACCOUNTING FOR THIS
DELAYED WARMING...AND WEAK MIXING UNDER THE RIDGE...HAVE HELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...FROM THE MID 40S NORTH
TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR WITH ADVANCING HIGH CLOUDS
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TOWARD MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...
INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST 5
TO 10 KTS TOWARD MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT AN INITIAL COOL-DOWN AFTER SUNSET...THEN STEADY TO
POSSIBLY EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES TOWARD SUNRISE. WITH MOST MODELS
OVERALL TRENDING TOO MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
THE BETTER INITIALIZING ECMWF WITH ITS LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S
BEFORE THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THIS POINTS TOWARD LOWER MINS THAN
MOS...AND HAVE GONE WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S EAST TO LOWER 30S IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MILD WITH A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE MONDAY...THEN FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR SIGNIFICANT TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AVERAGE WITH STILL QUESTIONS
ON PHASING OF PACIFIC ENERGY ARRIVING NEXT FEW DAYS. AGAIN POOR BL
ISSUES THAT ARE OFF BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR BOTH T AND T/D THAT MOS OR
OTHER ALGORITHMS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS HANDLING. TREND IS FOR A DEEPER
TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC SW BY TUESDAY WHICH IS A GOOD REGIME FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY RAIN WITH STALLED FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH FOR PROLONGED UPGLIDE. VARIANCES CONTINUE WITH HI-RES ECMWF
BY FAR THE FURTHEST NORTH. RUN TO RUN TRENDS AND VARIANCES SUPPORTS
A MIX OF THE UKMET/GFS /GEM-NH AND TO DISREGARD THE HI-RES ECMWF.
TRENDS ARE FOR NORTH PORTIONS TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF A
MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW WHICH WILL TAKE ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO BETTER
ASCERTAIN. THIS 2 TO 3 DAY EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EVENT...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS
SINCE LAST FALL. CONDITIONS OF THIS TYPE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WILL
HELP REPLENISH THE MODESTLY DRY SOILS AND PREPARE THE GROUND FOR
SPRING.
SUNDAY...EXPECT MODERATE BL MIXING AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP
TO 15 TO 25+ PH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRENDS STILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 50 PERCENT TO
LOCALLY NEAR 40 PERCENT. THIS INDICATES GFDI VALUES INTO VERY HIGH
CATEGORY FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE TO LITTLE TO NO GREENING OF VEGETATION. THIS
WILL REMAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT. SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH TO MAKE FOR THE MILDEST NIGHT IN MANY MONTHS DESPITE FAIR SKIES
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S....TO AROUND 50F SOUTH.
MONDAY...NEXT VIGOROUS AND FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S.
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...KEEPING MID CHANCE POPS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MAINLY PM STORMS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ALLOWING FOR LOWER PM DEWPOINTS.
MID LEVEL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WITH BASES AOA 6K AGL. LOW FREEZING
LEVEL STILL SUGGESTS NON-SEVERE STORMS WITH SOME PEA HAIL POSSIBLE AS
ANY STORMS WOULD FIRE OVER CWA IN MID/LATE PM HOURS. RAISED HIGHS BY
2-3 DEGREES INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. WINDS MID DAY SHOULD BECOME QUITE
WINDY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH. RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 50 PERCENT THAT MAY
SUPPORT NEAR VERY HIGH CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER BUT SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD AMELIORATE A BIT ALONG WITH HIGHER RH VALUES. MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DELAYED TIMING OF COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO MID/LATE EVENING AND GUSTY
NW WINDS TO LIMIT COOLING BY MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS MINS NEAR GUIDANCE
BLEND...OR UPPER 20S FAR NW TO MIDDLE 30S FAR SE SECTIONS.
TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. COOLER AND MOSTLY FAIR
SKIES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY OF 45 TO 50 DEGREES AND LIGHT NE WINDS AHEAD
OF NEXT...LARGE...SLOW MOVING AND QUITE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
DEEP TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM CALIFORNIA. TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING
CLOUDS STILL SUGGEST LOWS TO OCCUR NEAR OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT....THEN
RISING TOWARD MORNING WITH CLOUDS RAIN AND INCREASING EAST WINDS.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING A MIX OF
SNOW BY MORNING...OR JUST A WET SNOW. THIS REMAINS A POOR CONFIDENCE
ON MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTH SECTIONS. THIS QUESTION SHOULD BE
RESOLVED NEXT 12-24 HOURS. LOCAL TOOLS DO SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
MAY OCCUR ON EXPOSED SURFACES ATTM BUT AREA TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TO LIMIT IMPACTS ON ROADWAYS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROLONGED PERIODS OF CLOUDY...COLD AND EPISODES
OF RAIN OR MOSTLY RAIN WITH A RISK OF A MIX NORTH SECTIONS OR EVEN
A WET SNOW BY FRIDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. REVIEW OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA TOOLS INDICATE
1 TO LOCALLY NEAR 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR MOSTLY RAIN OVER THIS PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
EVEN MORE MOISTURE AND MAY RESULT IN EVEN SLIGHTLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
OF RAIN AND EVEN A WET SNOW AS OPEN GULF MOISTURE HAS MORE TIME TO
POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING DUE TO
ITS STRENGTH...CURRENT TRACK TO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
STRATUS BASED AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER
ALL OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED...BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL 18Z OR EVEN 20Z TO
GO SCATTERED OVER LOCATIONS SOUTH OF DBQ ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MLI AND BRL ARE THUS KEPT IN MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL OTHERWISE BE VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY
TOWARD SUNRISE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
324 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED COMPACT VORT MAXIMA
WAS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WV IMAGES MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND
WESTERN MO AT 07Z. AREA RADARS INDICATED A FEW WEAK ECHOES IN THE
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM SW WI ALONG THE MS RIVER TO W
CENTRAL IL. AREA OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET TO INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND FROM THESE WEAK RETURNS. AN INVERTED TROUGH AT
THE SURFACE...REACHING FROM THE CENTRAL IL INTO EAST CENTRAL
IA...WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO KEEP THE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THAT NEVER LEFT THE AREA YESTERDAY IN PLACE. THE
00Z KDVN SOUNDING SHOWED AN ASSOCIATED SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
TRAPPED JUST BELOW AN INVERSION AND WEDGE OF DRY AIR ABOVE 900 MB.
UPSTREAM...A LARGE UPPER LOW WAS OFF THE BC COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REACHED FROM NEB INTO NORTHERN
MN. UNDER THIS RIDGE...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR AND THE MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS FEATURED DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...CONTRASTING TO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS ON HOW FAST CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TODAY AND THE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. THE ADVANCING UPSTREAM
UPPER RIDGE AND DEEPENING AND PHASING OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL RESULT IN A DEVELOPING MORE FAVORABLE
SUBSIDENCE REGIME THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO BE A
SLOW PROCESS...AND MAY NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING UNTIL
AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING NORTHEAST
THROUGH KY AND TN WILL IS SHOWN KEEPING AT LEAST A WEAK CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN IA UNTIL MIDDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW THE LINGERING INVERSION ALOFT...WILL KEEP
THE STRATUS HOLDING IN PLACE OVER MOST THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS...CURRENTLY SLOWLY ADVANCING
E-SE ACROSS N CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN IA WILL LIKELY COME TO A HALT
OVER CENTRAL IA INTO EASTERN IA THIS MORNING. FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS...AND AT THIS TIME ONLY THE RAP 900
MB RH FIELD SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND. WILL THUS KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GOING THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD BRINGING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR. ACCOUNTING FOR THIS
DELAYED WARMING...AND WEAK MIXING UNDER THE RIDGE...HAVE HELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...FROM THE MID 40S NORTH
TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR WITH ADVANCING HIGH CLOUDS
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TOWARD MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...
INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST 5
TO 10 KTS TOWARD MORNING AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT AN INITIAL COOL-DOWN AFTER SUNSET...THEN STEADY TO
POSSIBLY EVEN RISING TEMPERATURES TOWARD SUNRISE. WITH MOST MODELS
OVERALL TRENDING TOO MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
THE BETTER INITIALIZING ECMWF WITH ITS LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S
BEFORE THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THIS POINTS TOWARD LOWER MINS THAN
MOS...AND HAVE GONE WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S EAST TO LOWER 30S IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MILD WITH A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE MONDAY...THEN FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR SIGNIFICANT TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AVERAGE WITH STILL QUESTIONS
ON PHASING OF PACIFIC ENERGY ARRIVING NEXT FEW DAYS. AGAIN POOR BL
ISSUES THAT ARE OFF BY 3-5 DEGREES FOR BOTH T AND T/D THAT MOS OR
OTHER ALGORITHMS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS HANDLING. TREND IS FOR A DEEPER
TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC SW BY TUESDAY WHICH IS A GOOD REGIME FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY RAIN WITH STALLED FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH FOR PROLONGED UPGLIDE. VARIANCES CONTINUE WITH HI-RES ECMWF
BY FAR THE FURTHEST NORTH. RUN TO RUN TRENDS AND VARIANCES SUPPORTS
A MIX OF THE UKMET/GFS /GEM-NH AND TO DISREGARD THE HI-RES ECMWF.
TRENDS ARE FOR NORTH PORTIONS TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF A
MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW WHICH WILL TAKE ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO BETTER
ASCERTAIN. THIS 2 TO 3 DAY EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EVENT...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS
SINCE LAST FALL. CONDITIONS OF THIS TYPE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WILL
HELP REPLENISH THE MODESTLY DRY SOILS AND PREPARE THE GROUND FOR
SPRING.
SUNDAY...EXPECT MODERATE BL MIXING AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP
TO 15 TO 25+ PH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRENDS STILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 50 PERCENT TO
LOCALLY NEAR 40 PERCENT. THIS INDICATES GFDI VALUES INTO VERY HIGH
CATEGORY FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE TO LITTLE TO NO GREENING OF VEGETATION. THIS
WILL REMAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT. SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH TO MAKE FOR THE MILDEST NIGHT IN MANY MONTHS DESPITE FAIR SKIES
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S....TO AROUND 50F SOUTH.
MONDAY...NEXT VIGOROUS AND FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S.
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...KEEPING MID CHANCE POPS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MAINLY PM STORMS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ALLOWING FOR LOWER PM DEWPOINTS.
MID LEVEL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WITH BASES AOA 6K AGL. LOW FREEZING
LEVEL STILL SUGGESTS NON-SEVERE STORMS WITH SOME PEA HAIL POSSIBLE AS
ANY STORMS WOULD FIRE OVER CWA IN MID/LATE PM HOURS. RAISED HIGHS BY
2-3 DEGREES INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. WINDS MID DAY SHOULD BECOME QUITE
WINDY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH. RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 50 PERCENT THAT MAY
SUPPORT NEAR VERY HIGH CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER BUT SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD AMELIORATE A BIT ALONG WITH HIGHER RH VALUES. MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DELAYED TIMING OF COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO MID/LATE EVENING AND GUSTY
NW WINDS TO LIMIT COOLING BY MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS MINS NEAR GUIDANCE
BLEND...OR UPPER 20S FAR NW TO MIDDLE 30S FAR SE SECTIONS.
TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. COOLER AND MOSTLY FAIR
SKIES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY OF 45 TO 50 DEGREES AND LIGHT NE WINDS AHEAD
OF NEXT...LARGE...SLOW MOVING AND QUITE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
DEEP TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM CALIFORNIA. TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING
CLOUDS STILL SUGGEST LOWS TO OCCUR NEAR OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT....THEN
RISING TOWARD MORNING WITH CLOUDS RAIN AND INCREASING EAST WINDS.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING A MIX OF
SNOW BY MORNING...OR JUST A WET SNOW. THIS REMAINS A POOR CONFIDENCE
ON MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTH SECTIONS. THIS QUESTION SHOULD BE
RESOLVED NEXT 12-24 HOURS. LOCAL TOOLS DO SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
MAY OCCUR ON EXPOSED SURFACES ATTM BUT AREA TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TO LIMIT IMPACTS ON ROADWAYS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROLONGED PERIODS OF CLOUDY...COLD AND EPISODES
OF RAIN OR MOSTLY RAIN WITH Q RISK OF A MIX NORTH SECTIONS OR EVEN
A WET SNOW BY FRIDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. REVIEW OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA TOOLS INDICATE
1 TO LOCALLY NEAR 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR MOSTLY RAIN OVER THIS PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
EVEN MORE MOISTURE AND MAY RESULT IN EVEN SLIGHTLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
OF RAIN AND EVEN A WET SNOW AS OPEN GULF MOISTURE HAS MORE TIME TO
POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING DUE TO
ITS STRENGTH...CURRENT TRACK TO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
STRATUS BASED AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER
ALL OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED...BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL 18Z OR EVEN 20Z TO
GO SCATTERED OVER LOCATIONS SOUTH OF DBQ ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MLI AND BRL ARE THUS KEPT IN MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL OTHERWISE BE VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY
TOWARD SUNRISE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE POP CHANCES THROUGH DAWN. ALSO
ADJUSTED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND NEAR
TERM MODEL DATA. THESE TWEAKS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014
LATEST HRRR AND RAP BOTH BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EXCEPTION IS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM JUST SOUTH OF
HUNTINGTON...AND NEARLY ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR. THESE SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AMIDST A CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND SOME INSTABILITY. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...LEAVING
THE AREA DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME RAIN MAY
CREEP INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAWN AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOBE OF
ENERGY EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THIS
HAPPENS...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRIER FORECAST IS ON TAP TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014
A COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED ITS SOUTH AND EAST PROGRESS AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER TX IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST TO MS RIVER VALLEY AND ENTER THE LOWER OH VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN TN BY DAWN ON
SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS GENERALLY THE STRONGEST WITH THE SFC LOW AT
THAT POINT. THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN TO ABOUT 995 MB PER THE 12Z ECMWF
AND 12Z GFS AS THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND REACH THE DELMARVA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
DESPITE THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES CAPPING OFF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
FROM BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
FOR EXTENSIVE CU AND STRATOCU AND SOME SHOWERS. THESE FEW SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOP NEAR THE STALLING BOUNDARY AS MODEL GUIDANCE
HAD SUGGESTED. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BEFORE MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SFC WAVE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THEN
INTO THE REGION BY EARLY ON SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST VERY LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... THE NAM AND 9Z AND
15Z SREF WERE IN THE LIKELY TO CAT RANGE IN MOST AREAS ACROSS THE
REGION. PERSISTENCE AND ISC COLLABORATION LED TO CATEGORICAL POPS
LATE IN ALL BUT THE BIG SANDY REGION. QPF TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHTER AND
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND WEST OF THE
ANTICIPATED SFC LOW TRACK.
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS INTO WV THROUGH EARLY SAT AFTERNOON SOME COLDER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO BE WRAPPED SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. A BAND OF
SHOWERS OR RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN KY BY THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DRY SLOTTING IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DOES LINGER INTO SAT AM...SO AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST IN THE AM
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP OFF DURING SAT AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHEST TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS... FURTHER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SAT EVENING INTO WELL INTO SAT NIGHT. THE NON NAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOME DECENT QPF...WHILE THE THERMAL PROFILE GRADUALLY MOVES
TOWARD ONE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWERS...FIRST ACROSS THE FAR NW AND
HIGHEST TERRAIN NEAR THE VA LINE AND THEN INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...POSSIBLY BEFORE THE SHOWER CHANCES END. THE COLLING
WOULD COME FROM A COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION...COOLING FROM LIFT
AND SOME WETBULBING. WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA AT
NIGHT...AND ANY SNOW GENERALLY FALLING AT NIGHT AS WELL SOME
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT GET MORE THAN
A DUSTING... IF THAT FROM THIS. HOWEVER...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY RIDGES AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE. AMOUNTS AT
THESE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH WITH THE TOP OF BLACK
MTN OR PINE MTN AND PERHAPS THE FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY GETTING
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. ON SUNDAY THE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. AT THE SURFACE...THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND THE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL START MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW WILL START DIGGING IN OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL TEND THE KEEP THE FRONT FAIR STATIONARY NEAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND
IT WILL RESULT MOSTLY IN CLOUDS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
OUT WEST CONTINUES TOWARD THE AREA...THE FRONT WILL DEFINITELY BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND IT WILL KEEP EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA AS WAVE DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND
KEEP THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP WARM UNSTABLE
AIR OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL ALLOW SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO ACCOMPANY THE RAIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE MODELS ARE
DIFFERING...SO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT COULD CHANGE 6-18 HOURS BY
THE TIME IT GETS HERE. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ADJUSTED THE MODEL BLEND TOWARD THE NEW
ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY LOWER CLOUDS AT BAY
AND ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE LESS
INFLUENCE ON DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY MEAN A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAWN. THIS WOULD MAINLY IMPACT KSME AND PERHAPS KLOZ IN ADVANCE OF
THE SHOWERS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD NOT AFFECT
TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER DAWN. AS THE RAIN COMES IN LATER IN THE
MORNING...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BEFORE LIKELY REACHING IFR BY
MIDDAY WHEN THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN AFTER DARK AT MOST
SITES. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. THE
VARIABLE DIRECTION BECOME SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE AND THEN THE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE WEST AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AND
PICKING UP TO NEAR 10 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES PAST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
513 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MAJOR MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
NC/VA BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTH TO THE SW COAST
OF MAINE. THE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS STILL DYNAMIC AT THIS
POINT...BUT SHOWING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STARTING TO BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE BEGINNING PROCESS OF
BECOME COLD CORE. BY MRNG THE LOW MOVES NE TO THE NJ
COAST...PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS ERN MAINE INTO NRN MAINE. PCPN WILL
BE SNOW...WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND EAST CNTRL MAINE. AT THIS TIME ALL MODELS
SHOWING A CLOSED LOW AT 500MB AND THE SFC LOW NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE BULK OF THE PCPN MOVES
EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE LOW DRIFTS NORTH ALONG THE NJ COAST
TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL BE
VERTICALLY STACKED. THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF SHOW A NEW LOW IN
THE ERN GULF OF MAINE THAT WILL BECOME THE NEW PRIMARY LOW FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARD NEW BRUNSWICK.
LOADED THE HRRR MIN TEMP FOR THE OVRNGT...GEM MAX TEMP FOR
TOMORROW. INTERPOLATED FROM MIN TO MAX FOR HRLY TEMPS. USED A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR HRLY DP/SKY/WND/POP. ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATERS.
LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
OVERRUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONT TO THE COAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HAVE BASED THE FORECAST
ON A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH WILL KEEP MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY
MIX WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE HELD WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EXPECT EXPECT A LIGHT WINTRY
MIX...WITH A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS. THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH WITH DECREASING RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST DOWNEAST TUESDAY WITH THE EXITING LOW WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND RELATIVELY
MILD WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
THEN BUILD IN BRINGING DRIER AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHETHER OR NOT A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA CAN MAINTAIN THE
DRY WEATHER. THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. IN THE FORECAST WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. CURRENTLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY MAJOR STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WHICH WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN THE VERY COLD
CONDITIONS WE HAVE HAD IN MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB...ALL OTHER SITES VFR TO
START THE PERIOD THIS EVENING. BY 9PM IFR CONDITIONS BHB IN
RAIN...BGR RAIN BCMG MXD. IFR CONDITIONS MOVE INTO
HUL...PQI...CAR...FVE AFT 3AM...PCPN SNOW BCMG MXD AT HUL TOMORROW
AFTN. IFR CONDITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PCPN TYPE SN FOR FVE...SN MAY MIX WITH PL BRIEFLY IN
AFTN IN PQI AND CAR.
SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DOWNEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE LOW WILL TRANSIT SLOWLY SOUTH OF OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. TODAYS TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED.
WINDS STILL CALL FOR MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS FOR TOMORROW. WILL
CONTINUE THE GALE WATCH.
SHORT TERM: MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD REQUIRE GALE WARNINGS.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR DOWNEAST MAINE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING STORM
WILL LIKELY FALL MAINLY AS RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO THIS RAIN...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY ADDING SNOWMELT
TO THE EQUATION. THE SNOWPACK IN THESE AREAS IS HIGHLY VARIABLE,
RANGING FROM AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST TO 2 FEET OR MORE IN
THE INTERIOR. THERE IS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER CONTAINED IN THE
PACK ALONG THE COAST WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES FURTHER INLAND. WHILE THE
DEEPER SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB SOME OF THE RAIN...MUCH OF IT
WILL BECOME RUNOFF IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWMELT. THIS MEANS
DOWNEAST AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY SEE 4 INCHES OR MORE OF TOTAL
RUNOFF. RIVERS WILL LIKELY RISE SUBSTANTIALLY AND POTENTIALLY
CAUSE RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE PLACES WHERE
THE ICE COMPLETELY FLUSHED OUT IN JANUARY (MEANING THE ICE THERE
NOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK). FOR THOSE RIVER STRETCHES THAT ARE ICE
FREE...ICE COVER UPSTREAM MAY BREAK UP AND COLLECT DOWNSTREAM. IN
ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS, THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
AND RUNOFF WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION,
TIDAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS BANGOR WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST FOR THE PENOBSCOT RIVER AT BANGOR BRINGS
THE GAUGE WITHIN 1 FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE WITH HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
MORNING. PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG WATERWAYS OR IN FLOOD-PRONE
LOCATIONS ACROSS HANCOCK...WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT
COUNTIES SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
MEZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
MEZ003>006-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...NORTON/NORCROSS
MARINE...NORTON/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...NORTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1021 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOPRES ANALYZED AT 1000 MB MVG OFF LONG ISLAND. IR SATPIX AND WATER
VAPOR LOOP CONT TO DEPICT A WELL WRAPPED SYSTEM...THE BACK EDGE OF
WHICH APPROX FM FDK-IAD-EZF. ITS NUDGED LTL SINCE 00Z. W/IN THE
HVYR PCPN RATES ENUF COLD AIR BEING DRAGGED DOWN TO SUPPORT
SNW...OTRW PCPN FALLING AS RA. NRN CARROLL CNTY IN THE BULLSEYE...
W/ A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNW RESULTING IN 1-2 INCH/HR SNWFL RATES
FOR SVRL HRS. HV NRMS REPORTS ARND 8 INCHES...AND XPCT A CPL MORE
HRS OF SNW. THEREFORE...HV UPGRADED CARROLL CNTY TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. ELSW...GNLY AN INCH OR TWO...IF THAT.
AS PCPN EXITS...A MORE FVRBL ENVIRONMENT FOR VERT MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT MOVES IN. THIS WAS REALIZED 23Z-00Z AT MRB/HRG/LUA. IN THE
PEAKS OF THE APLCNS...ITS BEEN WINDY ALL DAY...BUT THE 40-50 KT AT
H9-8 NOT MIXING. LWX 00Z RAOB DOES DEPICT A SFC-BASED INVSN...AS
WELL AS A LARGER ONE ARND 800MB. WE DO HV 40-50 KT AVBL TO MIX.
LTST RAP DOING BEST JOB AT CAPTURING IT. ITS ALSO THE ONLY GDNC
THAT SUGGESTS WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE TNGT. WHILE BELIEVE THE WINDOW
ONLY OPEN TIL ABT 04-06Z /TIL DIURNAL EFFECTS AND REDUCED P-GRAD
HAMPER EFFORT/...DO FEEL THERE IS A THREAT TIL THEN. HV EXPANDED
WND ADVY TO INCL AREAS SHOWING PROMISE...INCL MRB/HGR/IAD/HEF.
SKIES CLRG OUT ACRS THE PTMC HIGHLANDS...EXPANDING INTO THE SHEN
VLY. THAT WL ONLY AIDE IN VERT MIXING. SINCE TEMPS HV BEEN GOING
DOWN AND THEN UP SO FAR THIS PM...ITS BEEN A BIT OF A MOVING
TARGET FOR GDNC. TWEAKED TEMPS USING LAMP...WHICH RESULTED IN A
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT ALMOST AREAWIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND NWRLY FLOW
AND CLEAR CONDTIONS WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO BRING TEMPS TO
THE 60S MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING HIGH AND EXITING LOW CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL DRAW
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 60S IN NE MD
AND RIDGES TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA INCLUDING
VALLEY LOCATIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...ONLY SCT
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER THE MTNS AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND NRN MD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW 60S IN NRN MD AND THE RIDGELINES
TO THE MID 70S IN CENTRAL VA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER
IN MILDER CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
LOW STORM TAKING NORTHERN TRACK ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL NOT AFFECT THE AREA. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR FLGT CONDS ACRS BALT-WASH AREA TERMINALS ATTM...DUE MAINLY TO
CIGS...W/ VFR CONDS AT CHO/MRB. XPCT CONDS TNGT IMPVG TO VFR.
HWVR...NW WNDS WL BE PICKING UP THIS EVNG AS WELL...W/ G30-35 KT
XPCTD ACRS ALL TERMINALS...AND G40-45 KT PSBL FOR CHO/IAD/MRB.
WNDS ALREADY AT 40-50 KT A CPL THSND FT UP...AND HV THAT REFLECTED
VIA LLWS RMK.
VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL MONDAY. WL STILL HV GUSTY NW WNDS FOR THE
MRNG PUSH...W/ G30KT PSBL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MIDDAY-AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...VFR.
THU-FRI...MVFR TO OCNL IFR AS CDFNT DROPS ACRS THE TERMINALS AND
STALLS.
&&
.MARINE...
NW WNDS PRESENTLY IN LOW-END SCA RANGE. HWVR...GDNC DEPICTING A
STRONG GLW PSBL. PCPN ACRS WATERS PREVENTING MUCH MIXING...BUT
IT/LL BE PULLING OUT TNGT AS LOPRES EXITS TO THE NE. THEREFORE...
WL KEEP GLW GOING THRU TNGT ALL WATERS AND THRU MON FOR THE MD BAY
AND LWR PTMC. MIXING SHUD IMPRV OVNGT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION. SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY. SCA NOT
XPCTD THRU END OF PD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003-501-502.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ006-
009-010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ005.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-
051-052-501>504.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
536.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/HAS
NEAR TERM...HTS/JRK
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...HTS/JRK/HAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
902 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOPRES ANALYZED AT 1000 MB OFF JFK. IR SATPIX AND WATER VAPOR LOOP
CONT TO DEPICT A WELL WRAPPED SYSTEM...THE BACK EDGE OF WHICH
APPROX FM FDK-IAD-EZF. W/IN THE HVYR PCPN RATES ENUF COLD AIR
BEING DRAGGED DOWN TO SUPPORT SNW...OTRW PCPN FALLING AS RA. NRN
CARROLL CNTY IN THE BULLSEYE...NEARING WRNG LVL SNW. ELSW...GNLY
AN INCH OR TWO...IF THAT.
IN MANY CASES TAFTN-EVNG TEMPS DROPPED WHEN SNW BEGAN...BUT ONCE
PCPN LIGHTENED TEMPS ROSE AND SNW MELTED. XPCT THAT SAME EVOLUTION
TNGT FOR N-CENTRL/NERN MD...ALTHO THERE MAY BE A BIT TOO MUCH SNOW
ACRS NRN CARROLL CNTY FOR IT TO ALL MELT AT ONCE. E OF CURRENT
ADVY AREA...DO NOT XPCT MORE THAN AN INCH...AND HV NO PLANS TO
EXPAND WINTER ADVY BYD CURRENT CONFIGURATION.
AS PCPN EXITS...A MORE FVRBL ENVIRONMENT FOR VERT MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT MOVES IN. THIS HAS BEEN REALIZED PAST HR AT MRB/HRG/LUA.
IN THE PEAKS OF THE APLCNS...ITS BEEN WINDY ALL DAY...BUT THE
40-50 KT AT H9-8 NOT MIXING. LWX 00Z RAOB DOES DEPICT A SFC-BASED
INVSN...AS WELL AS A LARGER ONE ARND 800MB. WE DO HV 40-50 KT AVBL
TO MIX. LTST RAP DOING BEST JOB AT CAPTURING IT. ITS ALSO THE ONLY
GDNC THAT SUGGESTS WINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE TNGT. WHILE BELIEVE THE
WINDOW ONLY OPEN TIL ABT 04-06Z /TIL DIURNAL EFFECTS AND REDUCED
P-GRAD HAMPER EFFORT/...DO FEEL THERE IS A THREAT TIL THEN. HV
EXPANDED WND ADVY TO INCL AREAS SHOWING PROMISE...INCL
MRB/HGR/IAD/HEF.
SKIES CLRG OUT ACRS THE PTMC HIGHLANDS ATTM. THAT WL ONLY AIDE IF
VERT MIXING. SINCE TEMPS HV BEEN GOING DOWN AND THEN UP SO FAR
THIS PM...ITS BEEN A BIT OF A MOVING TARGET FOR GDNC. HVNT MADE
MANY CHGS THUS FAR. WL TWEAK ALTER ONCE LAMP HAS A CHANCE TO CATCH
UP.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND NWRLY FLOW
AND CLEAR CONDTIONS WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO BRING TEMPS TO
THE 60S MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING HIGH AND EXITING LOW CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL DRAW
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 60S IN NE MD
AND RIDGES TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA INCLUDING
VALLEY LOCATIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...ONLY SCT
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER THE MTNS AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND NRN MD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW 60S IN NRN MD AND THE RIDGELINES
TO THE MID 70S IN CENTRAL VA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER
IN MILDER CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
LOW STORM TAKING NORTHERN TRACK ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL NOT AFFECT THE AREA. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR FLGT CONDS ACRS BALT-WASH AREA TERMINALS ATTM...DUE MAINLY TO
CIGS...W/ VFR CONDS AT CHO/MRB. XPCT CONDS TNGT IMPVG TO VFR.
HWVR...NW WNDS WL BE PICKING UP THIS EVNG AS WELL...W/ G30-35 KT
XPCTD ACRS ALL TERMINALS...AND G40-45 KT PSBL FOR CHO/IAD/MRB.
WNDS ALREADY AT 40-50 KT A CPL THSND FT UP...AND HV THAT REFLECTED
VIA LLWS RMK.
VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL MONDAY. WL STILL HV GUSTY NW WNDS FOR THE
MRNG PUSH...W/ G30KT PSBL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MIDDAY-AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...VFR.
THU-FRI...MVFR TO OCNL IFR AS CDFNT DROPS ACRS THE TERMINALS AND
STALLS.
&&
.MARINE...
NW WNDS PRESENTLY IN LOW-END SCA RANGE. HWVR...GDNC DEPICTING A
STRONG GLW PSBL. PCPN ACRS WATERS PREVENTING MUCH MIXING...BUT
IT/LL BE PULLING OUT TNGT AS LOPRES EXITS TO THE NE. THEREFORE...
WL KEEP GLW GOING THRU TNGT ALL WATERS AND THRU MON FOR THE MD BAY
AND LWR PTMC. MIXING SHUD IMPRV OVNGT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION. SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY. SCA NOT
XPCTD THRU END OF PD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003-501-502.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ005-
006-009-010.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-
051-052-501>504.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-
536.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-536.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS/HAS
NEAR TERM...HTS/JRK
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...HTS/JRK/HAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
554 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Pesky stratus seems to be both clearing and eroding at a snails
pace this afternoon and has a done number on the temperatures.
Present indications based on satellite trends and the RAP which
has handled the low clouds best, is that areas generally along and
east of the MS River will see clouds into early evening with
clearing from mid-late evening. Otherwise the expansive NE-SW high
pressure system currently extending from WI into TX will slide
east across the region tonight with the axis centered thru SE MO
and southern IL at 12z. The slow clearing trend of the clouds
along with light winds overnight across the SE third of the CWA
has prompted me to add a mention of fog overnight.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
It finally looks like the warm-up will commence on Sunday. Heights
aloft that begin rising tonight in the wake of the departing upper
trof, will continue to rise on Sunday while the surface high
retreats and low level southerly flow and warm advection get
underway. There should be no low clouds to deal with a just some
thin high clouds filtering across the region. The current forecast
leveraging the warmer temperatures looks right on the mark and no
changes were made. The warmer temps combined with low afternoon
RH values and increasing southerly winds support an elevated fire
danger threat across central and east central MO, which will be
highlighted in the HWO.
Continued southerly low level flow on Sunday night will lead to
"milder" min temperatures and a slow return in low level moisture.
The aforementioned expansive surface high and its southern extent
will initially have a profounded effect on trajectories and delay
quality moisture return. However mid level moisture won`t be an
issue and this along with the eastern edge of steeper mid level
lapse rates spreads into central MO just before daybreak on
Monday. These ingredients along with the leading edge of forcing
aloft associated with an upstream trof, suggests potential for
some high-based scattered showers/thunderstorms and hence have
added some slight chance pops.
The week ahead looks especially active. The migratory upper trof
partly responsible for the slight chance pops late Sunday night
will move across the region Monday afternoon and early evening
spreading height falls and cooling aloft along with a plume of
steep mid level lapse rates. This combined with a gradual increase
in low level moisture and forcing should be sufficient for
scattered elevated showers/thunderstorms within the warm sector, moving
through central and northeast MO during the morning gradually
dwindling in coverage during the afternoon as they move east. By
the time the cold front moves through the area Monday night,
forcing aloft appears to have outrun the front and boundary layer
moisture and hence instability are quite weak. I suspect anything
that might be able to develop with be quite spotty and just have a
slight chance pop.
The most active period will be late Tuesday night into Thursday.
The front that moves through Monday night will move back north
and waver across the region. The warm sector air mass south of
this boundary will become quite unstable thanks to continued
northward return of quality Gulf moisture and the presence of
steep mid level lapse rates, and with a strong low level jet
evolving there will be good elevated instability and forcing north
this boundary. The models differ quite a bit on the position of
the next formidable migratory upper trof and the position of
attendant surface low(s) and this boundary. While all the guidance
supports a stormy period, the more northern position which has
been consistently advertised by the ECMWF would lead to a much
more volatile set-up.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Specifics for KCOU: Although light fog is possible tonight across
the region, KCOU experienced sufficient daytime mixing to limit
the overnight fog potential. Winds start to increase by 12z due to
the tightening pressure gradient between a surface high to the
southeast and a developing low to the northwest.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS, KUIN: Stratus was slow to clear
today and nearly clear skies with light winds are expected
overnight. The combination of limited daytime mixing and good
radiational cooling conditions will probably lead to light fog
formation, especially near and east of the Mississippi River.
Winds start to increase by 12z due to the tightening pressure
gradient between a surface high to the southeast and a developing
low to the northwest.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
324 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Pesky stratus seems to be both clearing and eroding at a snails
pace this afternoon and has a done number on the temperatures.
Present indications based on satellite trends and the RAP which
has handled the low clouds best, is that areas generally along and
east of the MS River will see clouds into early evening with
clearing from mid-late evening. Otherwise the expansive NE-SW high
pressure system currently extending from WI into TX will slide
east across the region tonight with the axis centered thru SE MO
and southern IL at 12z. The slow clearing trend of the clouds
along with light winds overnight across the SE third of the CWA
has prompted me to add a mention of fog overnight.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
It finally looks like the warm-up will commence on Sunday. Heights
aloft that begin rising tonight in the wake of the departing upper
trof, will continue to rise on Sunday while the surface high
retreats and low level southerly flow and warm advection get
underway. There should be no low clouds to deal with a just some
thin high clouds filtering across the region. The current forecast
leveraging the warmer temperatures looks right on the mark and no
changes were made. The warmer temps combined with low afternoon
RH values and increasing southerly winds support an elevated fire
danger threat across central and east central MO, which will be
highlighted in the HWO.
Continued southerly low level flow on Sunday night will lead to
"milder" min temperatures and a slow return in low level moisture.
The aforementioned expansive surface high and its southern extent
will initially have a profounded effect on trajectories and delay
quality moisture return. However mid level moisture won`t be an
issue and this along with the eastern edge of steeper mid level
lapse rates spreads into central MO just before daybreak on
Monday. These ingredients along with the leading edge of forcing
aloft associated with an upstream trof, suggests potential for
some high-based scattered showers/thunderstorms and hence have
added some slight chance pops.
The week ahead looks especially active. The migratory upper trof
partly responsible for the slight chance pops late Sunday night
will move across the region Monday afternoon and early evening
spreading height falls and cooling aloft along with a plume of
steep mid level lapse rates. This combined with a gradual increase
in low level moisture and forcing should be sufficient for
scattered elevated showers/thunderstorms within the warm sector, moving
through central and northeast MO during the morning gradually
dwindling in coverage during the afternoon as they move east. By
the time the cold front moves through the area Monday night,
forcing aloft appears to have outrun the front and boundary layer
moisture and hence instability are quite weak. I suspect anything
that might be able to develop with be quite spotty and just have a
slight chance pop.
The most active period will be late Tuesday night into Thursday.
The front that moves through Monday night will move back north
and waver across the region. The warm sector air mass south of
this boundary will become quite unstable thanks to continued
northward return of quality Gulf moisture and the presence of
steep mid level lapse rates, and with a strong low level jet
evolving there will be good elevated instability and forcing north
this boundary. The models differ quite a bit on the position of
the next formidable migratory upper trof and the position of
attendant surface low(s) and this boundary. While all the guidance
supports a stormy period, the more northern position which has
been consistently advertised by the ECMWF would lead to a much
more volatile set-up.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2014
MVFR cigs slow to clear out of taf sites, so backed off on
scattering clouds out especially for KUIN and STL metro area tafs.
Otherwise, winds to remain from the north this afternoon, then
become light and variable tonight as clouds scatter out. Some
concern about light fog tonight, but confidence is low at this
time. By Sunday morning, surface ridge to move off to the east
allowing winds to pickup from the south around 10kts.
Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR cigs slow to clear out of taf sites, so backed off on
scattering clouds out til after 21z. Otherwise, winds to remain from
the north this afternoon, then become light and variable by 09z.
Some concern about light fog tonight, but confidence is low at
this time so left mention out for now. By 14z Sunday morning,
surface ridge to move off to the east allowing winds to pickup
from the south around 10kts.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
916 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.UPDATE...
ANALYSIS THIS EVENING INDICATES STRONG 700MB FRONTOGENESIS
EXTENDING FORM THE BIG HORNS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CUSTER COUNTY.
THIS CORRELATES WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND
RADAR IMAGES. COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH IS SLOWLY SPREADING FROM
MUSSELSHELL COUNTY SOUTH AND A LITTLE EAST. HRRR MODEL DEPICTION
OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW HAS DONE WELL ACCORDING TO SEVERAL
REPORTS FROM OUR SPOTTERS. CHANGE TO ALL SNOW LINE APPEARS TO
CURRENTLY BE JUST EAST OF A SHERIDAN TO MILES CITY LINE...AND
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER WILL
LIKELY SHIFT OVER AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXCELLENT MOISTURE...STRONG Q
VECTOR FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS AND A SURFACE LOW WINDING UP IN
WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BLIZZARD OR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. THIS HANDLED WELL BY
CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS. SHERIDAN COUNTY ALSO LIKELY TO BE POUNDED WITH
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AFFECTING I-90. UPSLOPE AREAS OF
BEARTOOTHS AND BIG HORNS WILL ALSO BE HEAVILY AFFECTED OVERNIGHT.
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO NUDGE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
NORTHWARD A BIT. LOWERED BILLINGS SNOWFALL A LITTLE BASED ON FACT
WE HAVE NOT REALLY ACCUMULATED MUCH YET. SEEMS WE WILL BE ON EDGE
OF THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVY SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT AS USUAL. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
MAJOR SPRING STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH IS ALREADY IMPACTING
OUR FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. HEAVY SNOW HAS
BEEN FALLING OVER OUR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TODAY AND IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND THE PARADISE VALLEY TO LIVINGSTON.
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWING AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. POOL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN DATKOA`S WILL BEGIN ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AS MID LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. PW`S OVER OUR AREA ARE ABOUT
140 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. VERY DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP OMEGA FIELD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BUFKIT ALSO SHOWING DEEP
DENDRITIC LAYER FROM SURFACE TO 650 MB OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING TONIGHT WHICH WILL WRAP STRONG WINDS
INTO BAKER SOUTH TO ALZADA. WITH A FOOT OF SNOW EXPECTED THERE
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS GUSTS TO 50 MPH...WILL KEEP BLIZZARD WARNING
GOING THERE. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SNOW DRIFTS. HEAVY WET SNOW COMBINED WITH
THE STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FROM MCLEOD EAST THROUGH RED
LODGE...THEN EAST THROUGH HARDIN TO BROADUS. SHERIDAN WILL ALSO
PICKUP NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW. 3 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED FROM
LIVINGSTO BILLINGS BY MORNING. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO CURRENT
WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AS THIS VERY POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXITING THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RICHMOND
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AS THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE FIRST LOW MOVES ONTO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY AND THE SECOND TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS THE STRONGEST WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW
BUT AS IT MOVES INLAND THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKS APART AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SPLIT. THIS SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY RESULTING IN PIECES OF ENERGY GOING TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY STAYING TO
OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TO WARRANT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO
AROUND NORMAL FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS FROM RED LODGE TO KBIL TO ROUNDUP E WILL BE IFR TO
LIFR IN HEAVY SNOW OVERNIGHT. THIS INCLUDES KBIL...KMLS AND KSHR.
W OF THIS AREA...EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE BLOWING SNOW E OF KBIL AND OVER KSHR. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY ON
MON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR W OF A KMLS TO PRYOR
LINE IN THE MORNING. E OF THIS LINE...EXPECT IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS MON AFTERNOON. EXPECT AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER THE
CRAZYS...BEARTOOTHS AND ABSAROKAS. WIDESPREAD OBSCURATION OVER THE
NE BIG HORNS WILL DECREASE TO AREAS OF OBSCURATION MON AFTERNOON.
ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/036 025/040 025/045 027/046 027/053 032/056 032/053
+4/S 22/W 33/W 21/B 12/W 22/W 33/W
LVM 027/042 025/043 025/046 023/046 027/051 032/052 032/051
+3/O 22/W 22/W 21/B 12/W 22/W 33/W
HDN 028/038 023/043 025/046 027/049 028/056 033/059 033/055
+4/S 22/W 33/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 33/W
MLS 023/033 021/039 022/042 025/046 028/047 033/057 033/054
+5/S 12/W 22/W 32/W 11/B 11/B 22/W
4BQ 025/034 019/039 022/042 024/045 027/051 032/051 032/052
+9/S 13/W 33/W 32/W 11/B 11/B 23/W
BHK 018/027 014/035 016/038 021/042 025/044 030/051 030/050
+9/S 12/W 22/J 32/W 11/B 11/B 22/W
SHR 027/035 022/041 023/042 022/044 024/051 029/053 029/051
+7/S 24/W 44/W 22/W 00/B 11/B 23/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 29-30-34-35-40-41-64-65.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 31-32-36-38-39-56>58-66.
BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
33-37.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 67-68.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1232 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
A WARM DRY SURGE IS READY TO GO TODAY. THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS
WARM AIR IS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE RAP MODEL SHOWS
SOUTHWEST WINDS DRAWING THIS AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA...GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
NEARLY FULL SUN IS EXPECTED AS THE NEAREST CIRRUS IS OVER THE TETONS
AND BIG HORNS. THE GFS HOWEVER SHOWS CIRRUS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN OFF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECM WHICH GENERALLY
HAS GOOD SKILL WITH HIGH CLOUDS. STILL...THE SUPER ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
WHICH WERE MARKED UP TO LOWER 70S IN MANY AREAS GIVEN THE VERY DEEP
MIXING SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND A BLEND OF THE
NAM...RAP AND GFS WIND GUST PRODUCTS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES
TODAY CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH DECOUPLING POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST NEB FOR LOCALLY COOLER LOWS GIVEN THE VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING OF THE
SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG
OR NEAR THE CHEYENNE RIDGE SUNDAY...WHICH AS IT DEEPENS WILL ALLOW
FOR BACKED SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH /MAYBE A FEW 80S AS WELL/...THIS BACKED SURFACE FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER MOISTURE TRAJECTORY OFF THE GULF...RATHER
THAN THE DIRECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. TD/S
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE SOME...BUT STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DRY ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...EFFECTIVELY
KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
ATTM...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE RH IN THE 15 PERCENT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD EVENING. EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL BE
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A WEAKNESS IN THE
WIND FIELD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT RFW WIND
CRITERIA ATTM ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. HOWEVER STRONG MIXING
DUE TO VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD ALLOW FOR
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ARE
INDICATED BY BUFR SOUNDINGS WHERE THE RH MINIMUM EXISTS /SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. AN ADDITIONAL RED FLAG WARNING IS ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH /FIRE ZONES 210 AND 219/ ON SEEING RFW CRITERIA. STEEP
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD ADVECTING EML WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT. HIGH BASED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE...IF STORMS FIRE...SURFACE TD/T SPREADS OF 40 DEGREES
OR WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTM OUTFLOW WITH LITTLE
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING A LAL OF 6...BUT TROUBLESOME
NONETHELESS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE INITIALLY IS LACKING...SO WETTING
RAINS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. BEYOND SUNDAY EVENING THE FORECAST
GETS TRICKY...ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
THE IMPENDING LATE WINTER STORM. ATTM...THERE/S SUFFICIENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS TO SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
EARLY ON MONDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS THE MAIN TROUGH DRAGS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE CWA. IN TERMS OF
IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES AT LEAST INITIALLY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S...AND GIVEN THE WARM WEEKEND...SNOW MAY STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE
ON PAVED SURFACES...ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW
OCCURS AFTER SUNRISE. BUT...WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EJECTING
SFC LOW WILL BE EXTREMELY GUSTY...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 35 MPH
GUSTS /OR HIGHER/ ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON MONDAY.
VISIBILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED WHEN SNOW IS FALLING.
WINTER HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. WILL INCREASE POPS IN THIS AREA INTO THE
LOW LIKELY RANGE WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. BEYOND MONDAY...THE
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE NEXT WORK WEEK AS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS SEASONAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MID-WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
FIXED SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL GENERALLY PROVIDE FOR UPSLOPE
FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EACH DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONE CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE WIND.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO KVTN BY 30/18Z. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR BOTH
TERMINALS...BUT VFR WILL BE MAINTAINED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TODAY.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. A BLEND OF THE NAM...RAP AND GFS WIND GUST PRODUCTS
PRODUCED GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ALSO.
THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS DRY AIR IS THE SCNTL ROCKIES WHERE DEW
POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE MODELS PRODUCE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE ROCKIES TODAY WHICH WILL CARRY THIS DRY AIR
INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...DS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
634 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
A WARM DRY SURGE IS READY TO GO TODAY. THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS
WARM AIR IS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE RAP MODEL SHOWS
SOUTHWEST WINDS DRAWING THIS AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA...GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
NEARLY FULL SUN IS EXPECTED AS THE NEAREST CIRRUS IS OVER THE TETONS
AND BIG HORNS. THE GFS HOWEVER SHOWS CIRRUS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN OFF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECM WHICH GENERALLY
HAS GOOD SKILL WITH HIGH CLOUDS. STILL...THE SUPER ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
WHICH WERE MARKED UP TO LOWER 70S IN MANY AREAS GIVEN THE VERY DEEP
MIXING SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND A BLEND OF THE
NAM...RAP AND GFS WIND GUST PRODUCTS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES
TODAY CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH DECOUPLING POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST NEB FOR LOCALLY COOLER LOWS GIVEN THE VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING OF THE
SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG
OR NEAR THE CHEYENNE RIDGE SUNDAY...WHICH AS IT DEEPENS WILL ALLOW
FOR BACKED SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH /MAYBE A FEW 80S AS WELL/...THIS BACKED SURFACE FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER MOISTURE TRAJECTORY OFF THE GULF...RATHER
THAN THE DIRECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. TD/S
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE SOME...BUT STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DRY ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...EFFECTIVELY
KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
ATTM...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE RH IN THE 15 PERCENT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD EVENING. EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL BE
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A WEAKNESS IN THE
WIND FIELD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT RFW WIND
CRITERIA ATTM ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. HOWEVER STRONG MIXING
DUE TO VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD ALLOW FOR
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ARE
INDICATED BY BUFR SOUNDINGS WHERE THE RH MINIMUM EXISTS /SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. AN ADDITIONAL RED FLAG WARNING IS ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH /FIRE ZONES 210 AND 219/ ON SEEING RFW CRITERIA. STEEP
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD ADVECTING EML WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT. HIGH BASED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE...IF STORMS FIRE...SURFACE TD/T SPREADS OF 40 DEGREES
OR WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTM OUTFLOW WITH LITTLE
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING A LAL OF 6...BUT TROUBLESOME
NONETHELESS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE INITIALLY IS LACKING...SO WETTING
RAINS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. BEYOND SUNDAY EVENING THE FORECAST
GETS TRICKY...ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
THE IMPENDING LATE WINTER STORM. ATTM...THERE/S SUFFICIENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS TO SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
EARLY ON MONDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS THE MAIN TROUGH DRAGS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE CWA. IN TERMS OF
IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES AT LEAST INITIALLY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S...AND GIVEN THE WARM WEEKEND...SNOW MAY STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE
ON PAVED SURFACES...ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW
OCCURS AFTER SUNRISE. BUT...WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EJECTING
SFC LOW WILL BE EXTREMELY GUSTY...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 35 MPH
GUSTS /OR HIGHER/ ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON MONDAY.
VISIBILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED WHEN SNOW IS FALLING.
WINTER HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. WILL INCREASE POPS IN THIS AREA INTO THE
LOW LIKELY RANGE WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. BEYOND MONDAY...THE
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE NEXT WORK WEEK AS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS SEASONAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MID-WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
FIXED SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL GENERALLY PROVIDE FOR UPSLOPE
FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EACH DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG AND IFR/LIFR ACROSS NCNTL NEB WILL DISPERSE BY
15Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THEREAFTER THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST OFF THE CNTL ROCKIES AHEAD
OF A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE WRN U.S.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TODAY.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. A BLEND OF THE NAM...RAP AND GFS WIND GUST PRODUCTS
PRODUCED GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ALSO.
THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS DRY AIR IS THE SCNTL ROCKIES WHERE DEW
POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE MODELS PRODUCE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE ROCKIES TODAY WHICH WILL CARRY THIS DRY AIR
INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
A WARM DRY SURGE IS READY TO GO TODAY. THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS
WARM AIR IS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE RAP MODEL SHOWS
SOUTHWEST WINDS DRAWING THIS AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA...GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
NEARLY FULL SUN IS EXPECTED AS THE NEAREST CIRRUS IS OVER THE TETONS
AND BIG HORNS. THE GFS HOWEVER SHOWS CIRRUS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN OFF
THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECM WHICH GENERALLY
HAS GOOD SKILL WITH HIGH CLOUDS. STILL...THE SUPER ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
WHICH WERE MARKED UP TO LOWER 70S IN MANY AREAS GIVEN THE VERY DEEP
MIXING SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND A BLEND OF THE
NAM...RAP AND GFS WIND GUST PRODUCTS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES
TODAY CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH DECOUPLING POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST NEB FOR LOCALLY COOLER LOWS GIVEN THE VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING OF THE
SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG
OR NEAR THE CHEYENNE RIDGE SUNDAY...WHICH AS IT DEEPENS WILL ALLOW
FOR BACKED SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH /MAYBE A FEW 80S AS WELL/...THIS BACKED SURFACE FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER MOISTURE TRAJECTORY OFF THE GULF...RATHER
THAN THE DIRECT DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. TD/S
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE SOME...BUT STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DRY ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...EFFECTIVELY
KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
ATTM...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE RH IN THE 15 PERCENT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD EVENING. EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL BE
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A WEAKNESS IN THE
WIND FIELD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT RFW WIND
CRITERIA ATTM ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. HOWEVER STRONG MIXING
DUE TO VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD ALLOW FOR
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ARE
INDICATED BY BUFR SOUNDINGS WHERE THE RH MINIMUM EXISTS /SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. AN ADDITIONAL RED FLAG WARNING IS ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY. FOR THIS WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH /FIRE ZONES 210 AND 219/ ON SEEING RFW CRITERIA. STEEP
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD ADVECTING EML WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT. HIGH BASED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE...IF STORMS FIRE...SURFACE TD/T SPREADS OF 40 DEGREES
OR WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTM OUTFLOW WITH LITTLE
RAINFALL. NOT ANTICIPATING A LAL OF 6...BUT TROUBLESOME
NONETHELESS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE INITIALLY IS LACKING...SO WETTING
RAINS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. BEYOND SUNDAY EVENING THE FORECAST
GETS TRICKY...ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
THE IMPENDING LATE WINTER STORM. ATTM...THERE/S SUFFICIENT
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS TO SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
EARLY ON MONDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS THE MAIN TROUGH DRAGS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE CWA. IN TERMS OF
IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES AT LEAST INITIALLY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S...AND GIVEN THE WARM WEEKEND...SNOW MAY STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE
ON PAVED SURFACES...ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW
OCCURS AFTER SUNRISE. BUT...WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EJECTING
SFC LOW WILL BE EXTREMELY GUSTY...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 35 MPH
GUSTS /OR HIGHER/ ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON MONDAY.
VISIBILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED WHEN SNOW IS FALLING.
WINTER HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. WILL INCREASE POPS IN THIS AREA INTO THE
LOW LIKELY RANGE WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. BEYOND MONDAY...THE
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE NEXT WORK WEEK AS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS SEASONAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MID-WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
FIXED SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL GENERALLY PROVIDE FOR UPSLOPE
FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EACH DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
LOW CEILINGS IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL CLEAR OUT AFTER 07Z.
THEN...IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...PATCHY FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE EVENING LBF SOUNDING WAS SHOWING UNIFORM MOISTURE IN
THE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
THE UPPER TEENS OR AROUND 20...THE PROBABILITY OF FOG INCREASES IN
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. FOR THE LBF AREA...OPEN WATER ON THE NEARBY
WETLANDS WILL PROBABLY FAVOR PATCHY FOG THAT COULD GIVE VISIBILITY
OF 1/2SM OR LOWER. HOWEVER...OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL
BE THAT LOW...SO WE WILL KEEP THE PREVAILING AT 3SM BCFG WITH
TEMPORARY CONDITIONS TO 1SM. NO LOW OR MIDDLE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...SO THE FOG/MIST WILL LIFT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TODAY.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. A BLEND OF THE NAM...RAP AND GFS WIND GUST PRODUCTS
PRODUCED GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ALSO.
THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS DRY AIR IS THE SCNTL ROCKIES WHERE DEW
POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE MODELS PRODUCE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE ROCKIES TODAY WHICH WILL CARRY THIS DRY AIR
INTO THE FCST AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
343 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A SMALL BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM EUREKA TO
ELY. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOSTLY STAY STATIONARY AND
DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. IN
ADDITION A DEEP PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA...WITH RAIN ALREADY BREAKING OUT ACROSS HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF .25 TO .50" OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE REMAINS WHEN WILL RAIN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TONIGHT AND AT
WHAT ELEVATION WILL THE SNOW ACCUMULATE AT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
VALLEYS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN...WITH A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT...BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS. ACROSS ELKO COUNTY AND CENTRAL NEVADA THE CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS MUCH HIGHER...DUE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING ABOVE 5500FT
ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM
AUSTIN TO SPRING CREEK SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS 1000-500MB
THICKNESS VALUES FALL BELOW 549DAM. 700MB FGEN FORCING PEAKS FROM
AUSTIN TO ELKO AROUND 9Z...BEFORE SLIDING INTO EASTERN ELKO AND
WHITE PINE COUNTIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING A MODERATE SNOW-
BAND TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FGEN FORCING AS IT IS VERTICALLY
STACKED WITH A BROAD AREA OF 500-300MB UPPER LEVEL LIFT DUE TO A
DUAL-CORE JET STREAK CIRCULATION. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY DEEP LIFT
AND A VERY FAVORABLE DENTRITIC GROWTH REGION...THUS EXPECTING HIGH
END ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ABOVE 6K WHERE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR 12 TO 1 SNOW RATIOS. BELOW 5500 FEET SURFACE TEMPS WILL
LEAD TO LOW RATIOS...THUS LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT A SLUSHY
INCH COULD EVEN FALL IN ELKO. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN
POPULATED AREAS ARE EXPECTED AT AUSTIN...EUREKA...SPRING
CREEK...AND ELY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW TAPERS OFF DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM REACHES THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM...DUE TO
THE EVOLUTION OF TWO SEPARATE 500MB CIRCULATIONS. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW IN HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL MATERIALIZE OVER THE REGION...BUT
WET SNOW IS PROBABLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND 500MB HEIGHTS DROP
TO 546 DAM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEADLINE LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
EMPHASIS ON SHORT TERM AND IMPACTS TO AVIATION, SO FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. LARGE COLD TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, FOR UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER FOR EARLY APRIL AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE LIGHT, WITH THE LARGEST
IMPACT BEING THE COLD. WITH 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S WEDNESDAY, AND NW WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY UNDER WEAK RIDGING, AHEAD OF THE
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. 12Z ECMWF BRINGS THIS PACIFIC TROUGH INLAND
INTO NEVADA IN A WEAKENED STATE ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 12Z GFS MUCH FASTER AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS WAVE, IN FACT
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN MUCH DISAGREEMENT
STARTING ABOUT THURSDAY. SHOWED A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN THE MAX
TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BT
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS...COMPLICATED TAF PACKAGE, WITH SNOW
AND WIND IMPACTING AVIATION OPERATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF
SITES, BUT DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING /WITH THE 12Z GFS A BIT SLOWER/ SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL THE EVENT STARTS TO UNFOLD THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXPECT DEGRADED CONDITIONS IN -RA TO BEGIN AT KWMC AROUND 00Z, AND
AT KEKO AROUND 03Z. EXPECTING -RA TO CHANGE TO -SN AT BOTH KWMC/KEKO
APPROXIMATELY 06Z TONIGHT, WITH VIS/CIG MOST LIKELY FALLING TO
IFR/CAT A LANDING MINIMUMS AT KEKO 06-15Z SUN. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
REACH KWMC BY 09Z, AND KEKO BY 12Z, WITH STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING
30-35 KTS AND LIMITED VIS IN -SHSN. SINCE MOST OF THE SNOW IS
FALLING AT NIGHT AT KEKO, SOME ACCUMULATIONS ON KEKO RUNWAYS ARE
POSSIBLE 06-15Z SUN.
FURTHER SOUTH...CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED NEAR KELY AFTER 00Z, WITH
STRONG SW/S WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KTS AT TIMES, AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z.
INCLUDED VCTS AT KELY THIS EVENING WITH INSTABILITY PRESENT. STRONG
COLD FRONT PASSAGE APPROXIMATELY 12-15Z SUN, WITH AGAIN STRONG NW
WINDS OF 20-35 KTS. ACCUMULATING SNOW MOST LIKELY AT KELY 12-18Z
SUN, WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE ON KELY RUNWAYS.
AT KTPH...STRONG SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 20-30 KTS. COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AT KTPH AROUND 12Z SUN, WITH VERY STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE AT THE KTPH TERMINAL, GUSTING TO 40-45 KTS. LIMITED VIS
IN BRIEF -RASN MOST LIKELY AT KTPH 12-18Z SUN, BUT IMPACTS WILL BE
MUCH LESS HERE COMPARED TO THE OTHER TERMINALS. BT
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET
FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
SUNDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR NORTHWESTERN NYE
COUNTY.
&&
$$
95/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
952 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM THAT WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ALL THE SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM INTERSTATE 81
AND POINTS EAST. AS THIS WINTER STORM EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
COAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
MILDER MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 40S FOR MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY NEAR 60 FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AS OF 940 PM...
UPGRADED BROOME...SUSQUEHANNA...WYOMING AND NORTHERN WAYNE CO/S TO
WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOWFALL SPOTTER REPORTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES WILL EXCEED 10 INCHES. MANY REPORTS
RECEIVED BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA SO WITH
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS...BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 7
INCHES IN THESE COUNTIES. FARTHER N LESS SNOW WAS REPORTED IN
CHENANGO CO AND DELWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES...TO THE TUNE OF 2-5
INCHES. I CAN SEE A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN THESE PLACES SO WILL
STICK WITH ADVY THERE. FARTHER S OF THE WARNING AREA...SNOW IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT CONCENTRATING INTO BANDS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL TAPER DOWN
AND WEAKEN...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW TO THE EAST TWD THE POCONOS AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS. I THINK WE WILL SEE SNOW AMNTS OF 2-5 INCHES IN THE
POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SO WILL
CONT ADVY/S IN THE REST OF NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO.
PREVIOUS DSCN IS BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE NJ COAST. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS SET
UP TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ABT UCA TO NORWICH TO
THE CITY OF BINGHAMTON TO AVP. THERE WAS A SECONDARY BAND OF
HEAVIER MIXED PRECIP...FROM DELAWARE CO INTO THE POCONOS. WITH
MORE SHOWERLY LOOKING PRECIP TO THE S AND E. THIS AREA WAS MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND JUST PLAIN RAIN.
THE RAP SHOWS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WAS PRESENTLY AT
THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL WEAKEN. I BELIEVE ANOTHER
BAND WILL FORM FARTHER TO THE S AND E AND AFFECT THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS INTO PIKE CO/SRN WAYNE BTWN 1 AND 4Z. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AT THIS TIME AND THUS
BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS STORM IN OUR AREA WILL BE
OVER. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMNTS DOWN A TOUCH FOR SULLIVAN AND
PIKE CO/S.
FARTHER N AND W...HAVE HAD TO CHASE SNOW AMNTS AS BANDING WAS
LEADING TO RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME SOME OF
THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS WERE RELATED TO THE MELTING LEVEL AND
JUST SLEET AND WET SNOW WAS FALLING WITH LESS ACCUMULATION. SO WE
HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON SPOTTER REPORTS. THANKS TO ALL SPOTTERS WHO
HAVE SENT REPORTS IN...THEY HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL.
WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVY WHERE IT IS IN EFFECT FOR NOW. LIKELY
WILL DROP CORTLAND AND TIOGA CO/S BY 9 PM OR SO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DEFORMATION BAND HAS HALTED ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS. I WILL WAIT
AND SEE ON THIS.
REST OF FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
JUST CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AS COASTAL STORM RIDES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TAKING MOISTURE WITH IT. ONLY LINGERING AFFECT WL BE
CLOUD CVR VRY EARLY IN THE MRNG BFR DRY AIR MVS IN FM THE NW.
SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY AND TEMPS WL HANDILY RISE INTO THE 40S/NR 50
UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN TOMORROW.
500MB HEIGHTS FOR TUESDAY WILL CLIMB TO NR 567DM WITH S/WV RIDGE
BUILDING DIRECTLY OVRHD. GIVEN STRONG MARCH SUN HV GONE ABV
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S/LWR 60S IN THE VLYS. NO
WX IS EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT S/WV APPCHS TUE NGT, SPREADING SHOWERS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY ACRS NRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE..
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH WE STAY PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE, MOVES
THROUGH. WE ARE TALKING ALMOST AN ENTIRELY RAIN EVENT BUT SOME
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN FOR SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY AS OUR REGION
GETS INTO A DRY SLOT. BEYOND SATURDAY WE COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
MONDAY MORNING. VFR MON AFTN ON. IN GENERAL IFR CIGS AT ITH AND
BGM WILL CONTINUE. POSSIBLE IFR AT AVP AND RME IN SNOW UP TO 3Z.
SHARP LINE OF SNOW FROM JUST EAST OF RME AND BGM. THIS LINE
SLOWING BUT MAY MAKE IT TO BOTH SITES THIS EVE WITH IFR VSBYS.
AREA OF SNOW ALSO OVER AVP CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DYING IN PLACE. MVFR CIGS WITH VSBYS IFR AND MVFR AVP. CIGS WILL
REMAIN THE SAME ALL NIGHT BUT AS SNOW ENDS VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR.
AT SYR/ELM/RME MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR VSBYS.
AT ITH/BGM IFR CIGS CONTINUE ALL NIGHT WITH VFR VSBYS. BGM DUE TO
ELEVATION AND ITH DUE TO FETCH OFF CAYUGA LAKE.
AFTER 10Z SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN TO VFR BY 16Z.
NORTH WINDS 10 T0 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT BGM AND AVP INTO
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT THROUGH WED NGT...MAINLY VFR.
THUR/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
8 PM UPDATE...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. CURRENT PRECIP
HAS CHANGED TO SNOW AND SLEET. RUNOFF SHOULD BE CUTTING OFF SOON.
THIS DUE TO TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AND PRECIP IN FROZEN
FORM. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH BY MIDNIGHT.
CURRENT FLOODING IS NINEMILE CREEK AT LAKELAND IN ONONDAGA COUNTY
AND TIOUGHNIOGA RIVER AT CORTLAND IN CORTLAND COUNTY. BOTH SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING THEN FALL BELOW MONDAY. NO
OTHER POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD NOW. NO REPORTS OF ICE JAMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
048-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ038-044-
047-048-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ039-040-043.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ036-037-044>046-
055>057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ036-037-
045-046-057-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ056.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
813 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM THAT WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ALL
THE SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
THE MEANTIME...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM INTERSTATE 81
AND POINTS EAST. AS THIS WINTER STORM EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
COAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
MILDER MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 40S FOR MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY NEAR 60 FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE NJ COAST. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS SET
UP TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ABT UCA TO NORWICH TO
THE CITY OF BINGHAMTON TO AVP. THERE WAS A SECONDARY BAND OF
HEAVIER MIXED PRECIP...FROM DELAWARE CO INTO THE POCONOS. WITH
MORE SHOWERLY LOOKING PRECIP TO THE S AND E. THIS AREA WAS MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND JUST PLAIN RAIN.
THE RAP SHOWS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WAS PRESENTLY AT
THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL WEAKEN. I BELIEVE ANOTHER
BAND WILL FORM FARTHER TO THE S AND E AND AFFECT THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS INTO PIKE CO/SRN WAYNE BTWN 1 AND 4Z. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AT THIS TIME AND THUS
BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS STORM IN OUR AREA WILL BE
OVER. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMNTS DOWN A TOUCH FOR SULLIVAN AND
PIKE CO/S.
FARTHER N AND W...HAVE HAD TO CHASE SNOW AMNTS AS BANDING WAS
LEADING TO RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME SOME OF
THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS WERE RELATED TO THE MELTING LEVEL AND
JUST SLEET AND WET SNOW WAS FALLING WITH LESS ACCUMULATION. SO WE
HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON SPOTTER REPORTS. THANKS TO ALL SPOTTERS WHO
HAVE SENT REPORTS IN...THEY HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL.
WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVY WHERE IT IS IN EFFECT FOR NOW. LIKELY
WILL DROP CORTLAND AND TIOGA CO/S BY 9 PM OR SO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DEFORMATION BAND HAS HALTED ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS. I WILL WAIT
AND SEE ON THIS.
REST OF FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
JUST CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AS COASTAL STORM RIDES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TAKING MOISTURE WITH IT. ONLY LINGERING AFFECT WL BE
CLOUD CVR VRY EARLY IN THE MRNG BFR DRY AIR MVS IN FM THE NW.
SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY AND TEMPS WL HANDILY RISE INTO THE 40S/NR 50
UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN TOMORROW.
500MB HEIGHTS FOR TUESDAY WILL CLIMB TO NR 567DM WITH S/WV RIDGE
BUILDING DIRECTLY OVRHD. GIVEN STRONG MARCH SUN HV GONE ABV
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S/LWR 60S IN THE VLYS. NO
WX IS EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT S/WV APPCHS TUE NGT, SPREADING SHOWERS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY ACRS NRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE..
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH WE STAY PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE, MOVES
THROUGH. WE ARE TALKING ALMOST AN ENTIRELY RAIN EVENT BUT SOME
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN FOR SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY AS OUR REGION
GETS INTO A DRY SLOT. BEYOND SATURDAY WE COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
MONDAY MORNING. VFR MON AFTN ON. IN GENERAL IFR CIGS AT ITH AND
BGM WILL CONTINUE. POSSIBLE IFR AT AVP AND RME IN SNOW UP TO 3Z.
SHARP LINE OF SNOW FROM JUST EAST OF RME AND BGM. THIS LINE
SLOWING BUT MAY MAKE IT TO BOTH SITES THIS EVE WITH IFR VSBYS.
AREA OF SNOW ALSO OVER AVP CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DYING IN PLACE. MVFR CIGS WITH VSBYS IFR AND MVFR AVP. CIGS WILL
REMAIN THE SAME ALL NIGHT BUT AS SNOW ENDS VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR.
AT SYR/ELM/RME MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR VSBYS.
AT ITH/BGM IFR CIGS CONTINUE ALL NIGHT WITH VFR VSBYS. BGM DUE TO
ELEVATION AND ITH DUE TO FETCH OFF CAYUGA LAKE.
AFTER 10Z SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN TO VFR BY 16Z.
NORTH WINDS 10 T0 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT BGM AND AVP INTO
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT THROUGH WED NGT...MAINLY VFR.
THUR/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
8 PM UPDATE...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. CURRENT PRECIP
HAS CHANGED TO SNOW AND SLEET. RUNOFF SHOULD BE CUTTING OFF SOON.
THIS DUE TO TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AND PRECIP IN FROZEN
FORM. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH BY MIDNIGHT.
CURRENT FLOODING IS NINEMILE CREEK AT LAKELAND IN ONONDAGA COUNTY
AND TIOUGHNIOGA RIVER AT CORTLAND IN CORTLAND COUNTY. BOTH SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING THEN FALL BELOW MONDAY. NO
OTHER POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD NOW. NO REPORTS OF ICE JAMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
048-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ036-037-044>046-
055>057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ036-037-
044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW...WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
VERMONT. HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT...COMBINED WITH
MELTING SNOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASED HYDRO CONCERNS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 648 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE...MAINLY TO SLOW START TIME OF PRECIPITATION BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS. PRECIPITATION HAS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS NORTH ADAMS IN
MASS. SHOULD SEE IT MOVE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...CENTRAL VERMONT AROUND 9 PM...BURLINGTON AREA
AROUND 10 PM...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY BY AROUND 11
PM. HEAVIEST PRECIP STILL APPEARS IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN VERY TRICKY WITH NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO 825-MB CENTERED AROUND 0C.
DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TO COOL THE COLUMN AT
LEAST IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN NEW YORK. ONE CAVEAT TO NOTE...LATEST RAP SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND WOULD FAVOR MORE RAIN OVER SNOW/SLEET FOR
MUCH OF VERMONT...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 402 PM SATURDAY...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTH COUNTRY EXCEPT WESTERN RUTLAND COUNTY.
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR...ORANGE...AND
WESTERN ADDISON COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MINOR RIVER FLOODING
FROM THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT...EXPECTED RAINFALL...AND
ASSOCIATED RIVER RISES AND ICE JAM THREAT.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE WHILE LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH
PRECIPITATION NOT FAR BEHIND. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO 40S SOUTH AND IN EASTERN VERMONT. LOWER DEWPOINTS TO
THE NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC...AND SOME OF THIS AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH
INTO FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.
COMPLICATED TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL RESULT IN A VARIETY OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH PROBLEMS ENHANCED
BY FACT THAT THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO SOME
GENEROUS QPF AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRACK EAST TO THE DELMARVA REGION TONIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST TO A
POSITION OFF CAPE COD BY MONDAY. THIS MOISTURE LADEN SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM 0.75 INCHES
TO 1.5 INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AND LOWER AMOUNTS OVER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO DEAL WITH...AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COMPLEX THERMAL PROFILE WITH
SURFACE TEMPS NEAR OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING AND A WARM LAYER ABOVE
FREEZING MOVING IN ALOFT. OVERALL...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. BREAKING IT DOWN BY
AREAS...
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS MAINLY SNOW THIS
EVENING...THEN MIX WITH SLEET OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-7" WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREENS...PRECIP BEGINS AS SNOW OR MIX THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY
SNOW/SLEET MIX OVERNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN BY MID-DAY
SUNDAY. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5" ARE EXPECTED.
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...PRECIP BEGINS AS
SNOW/SLEET/RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY SLEET AND FREEZING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN BY MID-DAY
SUNDAY. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5" ARE EXPECTED...ALONG
WITH A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OF ICE ESPECIALLY ACROSS ELEVATIONS
FROM 1-2KFT.
FINALLY...ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES...PRECIP WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY RAIN WITH SOME MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE MOST RAIN DURING THE
EVENT PRESENTING SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO ICE BREAKUP. SEE OUR
HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO ON THAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT SATURDAY...FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THIS DUE TO SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SLOWLY
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE
UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE...SO CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT WE WILL AT
LEAST SEE SOME LIGHT SLEET AND OR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER EASTERN
ZONES DUE PROXIMITY WITH UPPER LOW. TEMPS MARGINAL FOR SNOW/RAIN
OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN. LOOK FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS MONDAY NEAR 40. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...DRY START TO THE PERIOD TUESDAY
BEFORE UPPER LVL TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SFC
LOW...TRAVELS FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES NEWD NEAR JAMES BAY BY MID
WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL HAVE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
SOUTH...WHICH WILL BRING LOW CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TUESDAY NGT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND MAIN UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL BE FAR NORTH OF THE FA.
FOR ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR...TUESDAY NGT WILL SEE SOME
SNOW...BUT WARMING TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION SN INTO RA
BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL USA WILL BRING WARM FRONT
TO THE NE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH
ECMWF PERSISTING WITH RIDGE. THIS WOULD KEEP THREAT OF PRECIP TO
OUR SOUTH THRU LATE FRIDAY. MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK GOING INTO THE WKND.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S IN THE MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE U20S-L30S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S IN THE MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SW...WARM
FRONT WILL BRING MIXED PRECIP TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM S TO N
TONIGHT. WITH ONSET OF PRECIP...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LLVL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH WARMING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO VRB/CHANGING P-TYPE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. HEAVIEST PRECIP EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z THROUGH 12Z. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVERNGT.
KRUT EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN EVENT...AS WARM AIR IS ABLE TO FILTER
IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN OF AIR. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
NE-E FLOW ALLOWING FOR DOWNSLOPING/SLGTLY DRIER AIR IN LLVL.
WINDS WILL BCM GUSTY AROUND 20KTS AFTER 06Z.
KMPV WILL SEE MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND 00Z...WITH SOME
WARMING ALOFT OVRNGT ALLOWING FZRA TO MIX IN AFTER 06Z. FURTHER
WARMING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE MIX OF SLEET AND
FZRA. IFR CONDITIONS...ESP CIGS...SETTLE IN WITH PRECIP ONSET
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE CPV WILL HAVE SLTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ON THE ERN
SIDE...RESULTING IN -SNPL CHANGING TO FZRASNPL AT KBTV OVRNGT.
MIX CONTINUES WITH SOME LLVL WARMING PSBL AT KBTV WITH SNPLRA
SUNDAY MORNING. KPBG WILL BE COLDER WITH GENERALLY SN AND PL
EXPECTED. OVERNGT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH
SITES...IMPROVING TO MVFR SUNDAY MID-LATE MORNING.
KSLK/KMSS EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW...WITH SOME PL MIXING IN AT KSLK.
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START BTWN 01Z AND 04Z AS COLDER AIR
KEEPS ONSET OF PRECIP AS SN...REDUCING VSBYS QUICKLY. LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL BE SLOW.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PCPN
AND/OR RAIN...TAPERING OFF IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 18Z. CONFIDENCE LOW ON EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF PCPN AS
SEVERAL MODELS KEEP MIXED PCPN OVER EASTERN TERMINALS WELL INTO
MONDAY.
00Z MONDAY TO 18Z MONDAY...TRENDING SLOWLY TO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST AS LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TAPERS OFF. BEST SHOT AT CONTINUED LIGHT
PCPN AND MVFR/IFR AT ERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT. AGAIN...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF BETTER FLIGHT CONDS AT NRN NY TERMINALS WITH
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES REGION.
00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR W/MVFR PSBL LATE THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM SW...BRINGING PRECIP SOUTH TO NORTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO EDGE INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE THIS AFTN...PROGRESSING NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN OUR SOUTHERN
WATERSHEDS RECEIVING THE MOST RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 1-2
INCHES. AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL SEE MORE OF A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
WITH SOUTHERN WATERSHEDS RECEIVING MOSTLY RAIN...EXPECT SNOWPACK
TO ABSORB SOME OF THIS RAINFALL AS TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...LEADING TO LIMITED
MELTING OF SNOWPACK. ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW
WATER MELT PER HOUR EXPECTED ON TOP OF RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN
MODEST TO LOCALLY SHARP RISES IN EXCESS OF 4-5 FEET SUNDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS INDICATE NO RIVER FLOODING
EXPECTED....BUT WATER LEVEL RISES MAY BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE ICE MOVEMENT AND/OR BREAKUP ACROSS SCATTERED WATERSHEDS.
WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>010-
012-016>019.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VTZ009>012-019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-
034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
641 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER
JUST WEST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS HOW TO BEST
HANDLE RAIN POTENTIAL. MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE
EASTERN NC. INITIAL THOUGHT WAS TO DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE AND
CALL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
EYING AREA OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
WHICH DEVELOPED IN REGION OF CLEARING EARLIER TODAY. THINK THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING
BY THE TIME IT WOULD ARRIVE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL. LATE TONIGHT DRY
SLOTTING SHOULD END ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH. USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/MET MOS FOR LOWS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WILL HAVE A BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...BUT AS UPPER LOW CROSSES TO
OUR NORTH NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY RECOVER ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES AND WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID
50S WITH GUSTY W/WNW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CAN BE
SUMMARIZED AS DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE POPS ENDING THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE/UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CARRIED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRYING OUT
SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
TO THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY WILL DIMINISH AND
SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THIS WEEK WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE STILL BEING
REPORTED AT THE TAF SITES BUT THINK THE TREND IS FOR IMPROVEMENT
AS THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS OVER AND SOME DRYING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS IN THE 12Z/18Z NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WILL FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS AROUND 09Z DURING THE PEAK OF DRYING. AN UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NC SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO A RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS 12-14Z WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD ALSO INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME VFR
ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE/UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
OTHER THAN TO EXTEND THE ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUNDS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. GUSTY SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY. WILL INITIALIZE WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS
FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE OREGON INLET TO
OCRACOKE LEG WHERE DIAMOND BUOY IS REPORTING GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
AND DUCK IS INDICATING GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO MORE SW LATE. PER
LATEST NWPS WAVE MODEL...SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FEET WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY 7 TO 10 FEET OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...AN OVERALL IMPROVING TREND SEEN IN MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY
BUILDING IN AND LINGERING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA/LEP
MARINE...CTC/JME/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER
JUST WEST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CURRENTLY. HRRR AND
RAP SHOWING DRY SLOTTING AND HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK TO HIGH CHANCE
OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING. LIKELY POPS WILL
CONTINUE OVER EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DROPPING
EVERYWHERE LATE TONIGHT. INSTABILITY TODAY HAS BEEN LIMITED BY
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AND HAVE KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
THRU THE EVENING AS SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUDS
FURTHER WEST OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT
WITH IT GETTING LATE IN THE DAY...AGAIN THINK THUNDER WILL BE
LIMITED. THINK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN LATE TONIGHT AND
FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WILL HAVE A BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...BUT AS UPPER LOW CROSSES TO
OUR NORTH NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A HIGH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY RECOVER ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES AND WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER
NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID
50S WITH GUSTY W/WNW WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CAN BE
SUMMARIZED AS DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE POPS ENDING THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE/UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CARRIED A LOW CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRYING OUT
SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
TO THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY WILL DIMINISH AND
SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS THIS WEEK WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE
70S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...UNPLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AS A DRY SLOT/DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
STILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE
EXTREMELY TRICKY WITH A MIX BAG IN TERMS OF CRITERIA CURRENTLY
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...FEEL THE MOST
PREDOMINANT AREA OF IFR/LIFR WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES
WHILE THE COASTAL SITES MAY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF MVFR/IFR CIGS.
FEELING IS THAT LOW CIGS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST
WILL ADVECT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN...PERHAPS LIMITING THE DURATION OF LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
MID LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES NORTH OF THE ARE AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NW. ANTICIPATE CEILING TO RISE AND NW WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGHOUT TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME VFR
ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE/UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...GUSTY SE/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
HAVE ADDED THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY. WILL INITIALIZE WINDS AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE
OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE LEG WHERE DIAMOND BUOY IS REPORTING 29
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 33 KNOTS AND DUCK IS UP TO 32 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 38 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WINDS VEER TO MORE SW LATE. PER LATEST WAVEWATCH...SEAS OF 7 TO 10
FEET WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH GENERALLY 5 TO 8
FEET OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS...WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN THE MORE
WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...AN OVERALL IMPROVING TREND SEEN IN MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY
BUILDING IN AND LINGERING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/LEP
MARINE...CTC/HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...
DUE TO IMPROVED VISIBILITIES...HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT /I-85
CORRIDOR FROM CHAPEL HILL TO HENDERSON/ WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL PERSIST THROUGH ~10 AM. -VINCENT
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORT OUR EARLIER THINKING... THAT WE`LL SEE A
BORDERLINE STRONG/SEVERE EVENT WITH DAMAGING WIND AS A PRIME THREAT
LATE TODAY. EXTENT/SEVERITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND A DELAY IN THE MORE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS UNTIL AFTER
THE PEAK INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY... WIDESPREAD RAIN PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NC...
DRIVEN BY DEEP MOIST UPGLIDE AND LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA... IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW DIGGING TOWARD THE
MID MISS VALLEY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THIS MOIST UPGLIDE
WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO OUR
NORTHEAST... BRINGING A RELATIVE LULL IN COVERAGE (MORE PATCHY THAN
THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE) FOR MOST AREAS BY MID MORNING AS
OVERALL ASCENT WEAKENS BRIEFLY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE
MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS. WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES SLIPPING BACK TO
LIKELY WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER QPF FROM SOON AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING... BUT EXPECT THICK LOW-BASED CLOUDS TO PERSIST
AREAWIDE. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR
OVER THE NW CWA (AND EXTENDING BACK TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF WRN NC)
WHERE THE RAIN IS EXITING... AND THESE AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
DENSE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK GIVEN THE LIGHT/CALM WINDS... DAMP
GROUND... AND PROXIMITY TO HIGHER TERRAIN TO HELP BLOCK THIS GROWING
STABLE POOL. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR THE
NW CWA... WHERE 1/4 MI VSBYS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING PERVASIVE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MATURE MCS NOW TRACKING THROUGH MS INTO
WRN AL (WITH IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES). ACCORDING
TO EXTRAPOLATION AND RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS... THE MCV EMANATING FROM
THIS MCS IS ON PACE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD... PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL/ERN NC BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z TODAY. A FEW FACTORS ARE APPARENT
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING SIMPLY THE EXISTENCE OF THE MCV AND ITS SIGNAL ON HIGH-RES
MODEL OUTPUT... AN AREA OF RELATIVE DRYING ALOFT (NOTED AT 700 MB ON
THE NAM/GFS) TO POTENTIALLY ELEVATE INSTABILITY... WARM NEAR-SURFACE
AIR WITH HIGH DEW POINTS (UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S)... AND A ROUGHLY 40
KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO SWEEP NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF NC 18Z-00Z TODAY. MODELS STILL INDICATE FAIRLY
SKINNY MUCAPE UP TO 500-1000 J/KG MAINLY OVER THE SE CWA FROM 18Z-
03Z (PEAKING 21Z-00Z) WITH LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS... SUGGESTING A
MAINLY WIND THREAT GIVEN SOME DRYING ALOFT. INITIALLY THOUGH -- AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD -- THESE HODOGRAPHS ARE CURVED ENOUGH TO
BRING ABOUT A CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE WEAK STABLE POOL. BUT IF THIS PRECEDING RAIN
PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH INTO THE DAY... IT COULD LIMIT THIS
INSTABILITY. ANOTHER MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE APPARENT SLIGHT
TEMPORAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN THESE FAVORABLE SIGNALS AND THE BEST
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF STRONG DPVA AND 150-200 M HEIGHT
FALLS... AS WELL AS A 500 MB JET STREAK OF 60+ KTS WHICH STRENGTHENS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND NOSES INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC 00Z-06Z.
FINALLY... THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD POOL NOW
TRACKING THROUGH AL MAY TRACK MOSTLY ACROSS GA/SC... AND THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER NC MAY BE SUBDUED. IN SUMMARY... WHILE
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS (AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO OR
SMALL HAIL REPORT OR TWO) REMAINS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST... A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
WE MAY SEE ANOTHER NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD... FOLLOWED BY A SW TO NE END TO
POPS OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT A CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN CLOSE TO A
MILLER-B... WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DISSIPATING OVER FAR SW VA
AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A WEAK TRIPLE POINT OVER THE
SW NC FOOTHILLS AND THEN TRACKS NE OVER WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NC
INTO SE VA TONIGHT. THE RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TRACKS OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
THUS AN INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER FOR LINGERING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.
FOLLOWING HIGH-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE... EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM
MID 60S NW TO MID 70S SE... NO BETTER THAN A 10-15 DEG F DIURNAL
RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT 41 NW TO 48 SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...
THE UPPER LOW WILL ASSUME A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PIVOTS SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NC AND VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG COOLING/MOISTENING ALOFT AS THE COLD CORE LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TOO WARM
DURING THE DAY WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND RENEWED PRECIP WITHIN A
WRAP AROUND PRECIP BAND. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS QUITE A
BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE HIGHER POPS/QPF IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 50 NE TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND EVEN THAT COULD BE TOO WARM IF SOME OF THE
WETTER SOLUTIONS VERIFY. DEEPENING SURFACE EXITING THE TIDEWATER
COAST SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS
15-20KTS...GUSTING TO 30KTS...REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AND MOISTURE WILL CLEAR OUT FROM SW TO NE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE. LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S NW TO MID/UPPER 30S SE WITH A STEADY 7-10KT BREEZE
PREVENTING WIDESPREAD FROST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODIFY MONDAY WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AS S/W RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAINS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER SEASONABLE HIGHS OF UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY...
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF 75-80 WED/THURS.
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY WITH CURRENT MODEL PROJECTION SHOWING A WEAKENING BAND OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AS IT BECOMES WELL REMOVED FROM
THE ATTENDANT S/W TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
IMPACTS/SEVERE THREAT APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR IS EXPECTED AT
INT/GSO TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT 12Z. A DEEP MOIST
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SW... AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM
NOW MOVING THROUGH MS AND WRN TN... WILL BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A
BRIEF BREAK OR LULL IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS... MOST LIKELY FROM 14Z TO 19Z... BUT
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS DURING THIS
TIME... WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO. THEN
STARTING SOON AFTER 19Z... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS... BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH... AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA TO OUR NORTHEAST AFTER
02Z... HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS WILL BRING A CONTINUED THREAT OF MVFR-IFR CIGS
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
BE FROM THE NW WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE... BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z AT
INT/GSO... BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AT RDU.... AND BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z AT
RWI/FAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TONIGHT... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THROUGH 18Z SUN. WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE NW
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY... BRINGING A CROSSWIND THREAT MAINLY AT GSO/RDU.
BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND 00Z MON... SLOW WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA...
WITH AT TREND TO VFR AT INT/GSO/RDU LIKELY BY 00Z... AND AT RWI/FAY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
FROM LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
927 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...
DUE TO IMPROVED VISIBILITIES...HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT /I-85
CORRIDOR FROM CHAPEL HILL TO HENDERSON/ WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL PERSIST THROUGH ~10 AM. -VINCENT
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORT OUR EARLIER THINKING... THAT WE`LL SEE A
BORDERLINE STRONG/SEVERE EVENT WITH DAMAGING WIND AS A PRIME THREAT
LATE TODAY. EXTENT/SEVERITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND A DELAY IN THE MORE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS UNTIL AFTER
THE PEAK INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY... WIDESPREAD RAIN PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NC...
DRIVEN BY DEEP MOIST UPGLIDE AND LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA... IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW DIGGING TOWARD THE
MID MISS VALLEY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THIS MOIST UPGLIDE
WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO OUR
NORTHEAST... BRINGING A RELATIVE LULL IN COVERAGE (MORE PATCHY THAN
THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE) FOR MOST AREAS BY MID MORNING AS
OVERALL ASCENT WEAKENS BRIEFLY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE
MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS. WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES SLIPPING BACK TO
LIKELY WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER QPF FROM SOON AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING... BUT EXPECT THICK LOW-BASED CLOUDS TO PERSIST
AREAWIDE. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR
OVER THE NW CWA (AND EXTENDING BACK TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF WRN NC)
WHERE THE RAIN IS EXITING... AND THESE AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
DENSE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK GIVEN THE LIGHT/CALM WINDS... DAMP
GROUND... AND PROXIMITY TO HIGHER TERRAIN TO HELP BLOCK THIS GROWING
STABLE POOL. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR THE
NW CWA... WHERE 1/4 MI VSBYS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING PERVASIVE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MATURE MCS NOW TRACKING THROUGH MS INTO
WRN AL (WITH IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES). ACCORDING
TO EXTRAPOLATION AND RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS... THE MCV EMANATING FROM
THIS MCS IS ON PACE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD... PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL/ERN NC BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z TODAY. A FEW FACTORS ARE APPARENT
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING SIMPLY THE EXISTENCE OF THE MCV AND ITS SIGNAL ON HIGH-RES
MODEL OUTPUT... AN AREA OF RELATIVE DRYING ALOFT (NOTED AT 700 MB ON
THE NAM/GFS) TO POTENTIALLY ELEVATE INSTABILITY... WARM NEAR-SURFACE
AIR WITH HIGH DEW POINTS (UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S)... AND A ROUGHLY 40
KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO SWEEP NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF NC 18Z-00Z TODAY. MODELS STILL INDICATE FAIRLY
SKINNY MUCAPE UP TO 500-1000 J/KG MAINLY OVER THE SE CWA FROM 18Z-
03Z (PEAKING 21Z-00Z) WITH LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS... SUGGESTING A
MAINLY WIND THREAT GIVEN SOME DRYING ALOFT. INITIALLY THOUGH -- AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD -- THESE HODOGRAPHS ARE CURVED ENOUGH TO
BRING ABOUT A CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE WEAK STABLE POOL. BUT IF THIS PRECEDING RAIN
PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH INTO THE DAY... IT COULD LIMIT THIS
INSTABILITY. ANOTHER MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE APPARENT SLIGHT
TEMPORAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN THESE FAVORABLE SIGNALS AND THE BEST
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF STRONG DPVA AND 150-200 M HEIGHT
FALLS... AS WELL AS A 500 MB JET STREAK OF 60+ KTS WHICH STRENGTHENS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND NOSES INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC 00Z-06Z.
FINALLY... THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD POOL NOW
TRACKING THROUGH AL MAY TRACK MOSTLY ACROSS GA/SC... AND THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER NC MAY BE SUBDUED. IN SUMMARY... WHILE
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS (AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO OR
SMALL HAIL REPORT OR TWO) REMAINS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST... A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
WE MAY SEE ANOTHER NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD... FOLLOWED BY A SW TO NE END TO
POPS OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT A CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN CLOSE TO A
MILLER-B... WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DISSIPATING OVER FAR SW VA
AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A WEAK TRIPLE POINT OVER THE
SW NC FOOTHILLS AND THEN TRACKS NE OVER WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NC
INTO SE VA TONIGHT. THE RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TRACKS OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
THUS AN INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER FOR LINGERING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.
FOLLOWING HIGH-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE... EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM
MID 60S NW TO MID 70S SE... NO BETTER THAN A 10-15 DEG F DIURNAL
RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT 41 NW TO 48 SE.
FOR SUNDAY: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO HOLD PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NRN CWA AS THE LOW ALOFT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR NE WILL GENERATE A TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS NC... AND EXPECT WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED FROM THE WNW OR NW AT
15-20 MPH (HIGHEST IN THE WEST WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE STRONGEST
WITHIN 100-120 M HEIGHT RISES... AND LOWER NE WHERE MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL BE LOWER)... WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH... BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT THIS RISK WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE LOW LEVELS
DO DRY OUT WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW BUT THIS RELATIVELY DRY LAYER WILL BE
SHALLOW... AND WE MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OVER
THE NRN CWA IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTIFUL
CLOUDINESS... BRISK NW WINDS... COLD AIR ADVECTION... AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 M BELOW NORMAL... EXPECT CHILLY
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S... A SLIGHT DOWNWARD BUMP FROM
EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DELMARVA LATE SUNDAY DEPARTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ITS COMMA HEAD WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND SLOWLY
WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S. BASED ON SOME
GUIDANCE...ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
WILL APPROACH FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS A
LIGHT WIND AND DRYING WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST.
THE SHOT OF COLDER AIR LOOKS TO BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE REGION...AND BEGIN AN
EVOLUTION INTO A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. WITH A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1320M MONDAY MORNING SUPPORT MET MOS GUIDANCE
MORE SO THAN THE MAV MOS...UPPER 60S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 70
SOUTHWEST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 39-44.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY IS IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL BE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A WEAK FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUESDAY AND THEN
WASH OUT WITHOUT HAVING MUCH...IF ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHEN THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND A FRONTAL ZONE PUSHES
EAST INTO CENTRAL NC FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A MUCH WARMER PERIOD FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH
THICKNESSES AS MUCH AS 20-30M ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHS IN THE 70S OR
EVEN 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST BY WED/THURS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR IS EXPECTED AT
INT/GSO TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT 12Z. A DEEP MOIST
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SW... AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM
NOW MOVING THROUGH MS AND WRN TN... WILL BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A
BRIEF BREAK OR LULL IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS... MOST LIKELY FROM 14Z TO 19Z... BUT
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS DURING THIS
TIME... WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO. THEN
STARTING SOON AFTER 19Z... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS... BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH... AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA TO OUR NORTHEAST AFTER
02Z... HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS WILL BRING A CONTINUED THREAT OF MVFR-IFR CIGS
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
BE FROM THE NW WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE... BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z AT
INT/GSO... BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AT RDU.... AND BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z AT
RWI/FAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TONIGHT... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THROUGH 18Z SUN. WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE NW
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY... BRINGING A CROSSWIND THREAT MAINLY AT GSO/RDU.
BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND 00Z MON... SLOW WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA...
WITH AT TREND TO VFR AT INT/GSO/RDU LIKELY BY 00Z... AND AT RWI/FAY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
FROM LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>009-
024-025.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORT OUR EARLIER THINKING... THAT WE`LL SEE A
BORDERLINE STRONG/SEVERE EVENT WITH DAMAGING WIND AS A PRIME THREAT
LATE TODAY. EXTENT/SEVERITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND A DELAY IN THE MORE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS UNTIL AFTER
THE PEAK INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY... WIDESPREAD RAIN PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NC...
DRIVEN BY DEEP MOIST UPGLIDE AND LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA... IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW DIGGING TOWARD THE
MID MISS VALLEY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THIS MOIST UPGLIDE
WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO OUR
NORTHEAST... BRINGING A RELATIVE LULL IN COVERAGE (MORE PATCHY THAN
THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE) FOR MOST AREAS BY MID MORNING AS
OVERALL ASCENT WEAKENS BRIEFLY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE
MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS. WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES SLIPPING BACK TO
LIKELY WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER QPF FROM SOON AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING... BUT EXPECT THICK LOW-BASED CLOUDS TO PERSIST
AREAWIDE. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR
OVER THE NW CWA (AND EXTENDING BACK TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF WRN NC)
WHERE THE RAIN IS EXITING... AND THESE AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
DENSE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK GIVEN THE LIGHT/CALM WINDS... DAMP
GROUND... AND PROXIMITY TO HIGHER TERRAIN TO HELP BLOCK THIS GROWING
STABLE POOL. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR THE
NW CWA... WHERE 1/4 MI VSBYS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING PERVASIVE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MATURE MCS NOW TRACKING THROUGH MS INTO
WRN AL (WITH IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES). ACCORDING
TO EXTRAPOLATION AND RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS... THE MCV EMANATING FROM
THIS MCS IS ON PACE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD... PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL/ERN NC BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z TODAY. A FEW FACTORS ARE APPARENT
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING SIMPLY THE EXISTENCE OF THE MCV AND ITS SIGNAL ON HIGH-RES
MODEL OUTPUT... AN AREA OF RELATIVE DRYING ALOFT (NOTED AT 700 MB ON
THE NAM/GFS) TO POTENTIALLY ELEVATE INSTABILITY... WARM NEAR-SURFACE
AIR WITH HIGH DEW POINTS (UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S)... AND A ROUGHLY 40
KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO SWEEP NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF NC 18Z-00Z TODAY. MODELS STILL INDICATE FAIRLY
SKINNY MUCAPE UP TO 500-1000 J/KG MAINLY OVER THE SE CWA FROM 18Z-
03Z (PEAKING 21Z-00Z) WITH LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS... SUGGESTING A
MAINLY WIND THREAT GIVEN SOME DRYING ALOFT. INITIALLY THOUGH -- AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD -- THESE HODOGRAPHS ARE CURVED ENOUGH TO
BRING ABOUT A CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE WEAK STABLE POOL. BUT IF THIS PRECEDING RAIN
PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH INTO THE DAY... IT COULD LIMIT THIS
INSTABILITY. ANOTHER MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE APPARENT SLIGHT
TEMPORAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN THESE FAVORABLE SIGNALS AND THE BEST
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF STRONG DPVA AND 150-200 M HEIGHT
FALLS... AS WELL AS A 500 MB JET STREAK OF 60+ KTS WHICH STRENGTHENS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND NOSES INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC 00Z-06Z.
FINALLY... THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD POOL NOW
TRACKING THROUGH AL MAY TRACK MOSTLY ACROSS GA/SC... AND THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER NC MAY BE SUBDUED. IN SUMMARY... WHILE
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS (AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO OR
SMALL HAIL REPORT OR TWO) REMAINS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST... A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
WE MAY SEE ANOTHER NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD... FOLLOWED BY A SW TO NE END TO
POPS OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT A CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN CLOSE TO A
MILLER-B... WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DISSIPATING OVER FAR SW VA
AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A WEAK TRIPLE POINT OVER THE
SW NC FOOTHILLS AND THEN TRACKS NE OVER WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NC
INTO SE VA TONIGHT. THE RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TRACKS OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
THUS AN INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER FOR LINGERING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.
FOLLOWING HIGH-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE... EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM
MID 60S NW TO MID 70S SE... NO BETTER THAN A 10-15 DEG F DIURNAL
RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT 41 NW TO 48 SE.
FOR SUNDAY: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO HOLD PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NRN CWA AS THE LOW ALOFT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR NE WILL GENERATE A TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS NC... AND EXPECT WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED FROM THE WNW OR NW AT
15-20 MPH (HIGHEST IN THE WEST WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE STRONGEST
WITHIN 100-120 M HEIGHT RISES... AND LOWER NE WHERE MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL BE LOWER)... WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH... BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT THIS RISK WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE LOW LEVELS
DO DRY OUT WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW BUT THIS RELATIVELY DRY LAYER WILL BE
SHALLOW... AND WE MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OVER
THE NRN CWA IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTIFUL
CLOUDINESS... BRISK NW WINDS... COLD AIR ADVECTION... AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 M BELOW NORMAL... EXPECT CHILLY
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S... A SLIGHT DOWNWARD BUMP FROM
EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DELMARVA LATE SUNDAY DEPARTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ITS COMMA HEAD WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND SLOWLY
WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S. BASED ON SOME
GUIDANCE...ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
WILL APPROACH FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS A
LIGHT WIND AND DRYING WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST.
THE SHOT OF COLDER AIR LOOKS TO BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE REGION...AND BEGIN AN
EVOLUTION INTO A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. WITH A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1320M MONDAY MORNING SUPPORT MET MOS GUIDANCE
MORE SO THAN THE MAV MOS...UPPER 60S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 70
SOUTHWEST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 39-44.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY IS IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL BE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A WEAK FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUESDAY AND THEN
WASH OUT WITHOUT HAVING MUCH...IF ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHEN THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND A FRONTAL ZONE PUSHES
EAST INTO CENTRAL NC FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A MUCH WARMER PERIOD FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH
THICKNESSES AS MUCH AS 20-30M ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHS IN THE 70S OR
EVEN 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST BY WED/THURS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR TO MVFR IS EXPECTED AT
INT/GSO TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT 12Z. A DEEP MOIST
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SW... AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM
NOW MOVING THROUGH MS AND WRN TN... WILL BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A
BRIEF BREAK OR LULL IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS... MOST LIKELY FROM 14Z TO 19Z... BUT
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS DURING THIS
TIME... WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO. THEN
STARTING SOON AFTER 19Z... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS... BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH... AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA TO OUR NORTHEAST AFTER
02Z... HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS WILL BRING A CONTINUED THREAT OF MVFR-IFR CIGS
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
BE FROM THE NW WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE... BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z AT
INT/GSO... BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z AT RDU.... AND BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z AT
RWI/FAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TONIGHT... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THROUGH 18Z SUN. WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE NW
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY... BRINGING A CROSSWIND THREAT MAINLY AT GSO/RDU.
BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND 00Z MON... SLOW WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA...
WITH AT TREND TO VFR AT INT/GSO/RDU LIKELY BY 00Z... AND AT RWI/FAY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
FROM LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>009-
021>025-038>040-073-074-083.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORT OUR EARLIER THINKING... THAT WE`LL SEE A
BORDERLINE STRONG/SEVERE EVENT WITH DAMAGING WIND AS A PRIME
THREAT... AND WITH EXTENT/SEVERITY LIKELY LIMITED BY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND A DELAY IN THE MORE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS.
CURRENTLY... WIDESPREAD RAIN PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NC...
DRIVEN BY DEEP MOIST UPGLIDE AND LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA... IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW DIGGING TOWARD THE
MID MISS VALLEY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THIS MOIST UPGLIDE
WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO OUR
NORTHEAST... BRINGING A RELATIVE LULL IN COVERAGE (MORE PATCHY THAN
THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE) FOR MOST AREAS BY MID MORNING AS
OVERALL ASCENT WEAKENS BRIEFLY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE
MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS. WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES SLIPPING BACK TO
LIKELY WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER QPF FROM SOON AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING... BUT EXPECT THICK LOW-BASED CLOUDS TO PERSIST
AREAWIDE. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR
OVER THE NW CWA (AND EXTENDING BACK TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF WRN NC)
WHERE THE RAIN IS EXITING... AND THESE AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
DENSE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK GIVEN THE LIGHT/CALM WINDS... DAMP
GROUND... AND PROXIMITY TO HIGHER TERRAIN TO HELP BLOCK THIS GROWING
STABLE POOL. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR THE
NW CWA... WHERE 1/4 MI VSBYS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING PERVASIVE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MATURE MCS NOW TRACKING THROUGH MS INTO
WRN AL (WITH IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES). ACCORDING
TO EXTRAPOLATION AND RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS... THE MCV EMANATING FROM
THIS MCS IS ON PACE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD... PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL/ERN NC BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z TODAY. A FEW FACTORS ARE APPARENT
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING SIMPLY THE EXISTENCE OF THE MCV AND ITS SIGNAL ON HIGH-RES
MODEL OUTPUT... AN AREA OF RELATIVE DRYING ALOFT (NOTED AT 700 MB ON
THE NAM/GFS) TO POTENTIALLY ELEVATE INSTABILITY... WARM NEAR-SURFACE
AIR WITH HIGH DEW POINTS (UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S)... AND A ROUGHLY 40
KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO SWEEP NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF NC 18Z-00Z TODAY. MODELS STILL INDICATE FAIRLY
SKINNY MUCAPE UP TO 500-1000 J/KG MAINLY OVER THE SE CWA FROM 18Z-
03Z (PEAKING 21Z-00Z) WITH LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS... SUGGESTING A
MAINLY WIND THREAT GIVEN SOME DRYING ALOFT. INITIALLY THOUGH -- AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD -- THESE HODOGRAPHS ARE CURVED ENOUGH TO
BRING ABOUT A CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE WEAK STABLE POOL. BUT IF THIS PRECEDING RAIN
PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH INTO THE DAY... IT COULD LIMIT THIS
INSTABILITY. ANOTHER MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE APPARENT SLIGHT
TEMPORAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN THESE FAVORABLE SIGNALS AND THE BEST
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF STRONG DPVA AND 150-200 M HEIGHT
FALLS... AS WELL AS A 500 MB JET STREAK OF 60+ KTS WHICH STRENGTHENS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND NOSES INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC 00Z-06Z.
FINALLY... THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD POOL NOW
TRACKING THROUGH AL MAY TRACK MOSTLY ACROSS GA/SC... AND THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER NC MAY BE SUBDUED. IN SUMMARY... WHILE
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS (AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO OR
SMALL HAIL REPORT OR TWO) REMAINS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST... A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
WE MAY SEE ANOTHER NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD... FOLLOWED BY A SW TO NE END TO
POPS OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT A CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN CLOSE TO A
MILLER-B... WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DISSIPATING OVER FAR SW VA
AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A WEAK TRIPLE POINT OVER THE
SW NC FOOTHILLS AND THEN TRACKS NE OVER WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NC
INTO SE VA TONIGHT. THE RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TRACKS OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
THUS AN INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER FOR LINGERING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.
FOLLOWING HIGH-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE... EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM
MID 60S NW TO MID 70S SE... NO BETTER THAN A 10-15 DEG F DIURNAL
RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT 41 NW TO 48 SE.
FOR SUNDAY: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO HOLD PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NRN CWA AS THE LOW ALOFT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR NE WILL GENERATE A TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS NC... AND EXPECT WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED FROM THE WNW OR NW AT
15-20 MPH (HIGHEST IN THE WEST WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE STRONGEST
WITHIN 100-120 M HEIGHT RISES... AND LOWER NE WHERE MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL BE LOWER)... WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH... BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT THIS RISK WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE LOW LEVELS
DO DRY OUT WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW BUT THIS RELATIVELY DRY LAYER WILL BE
SHALLOW... AND WE MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OVER
THE NRN CWA IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTIFUL
CLOUDINESS... BRISK NW WINDS... COLD AIR ADVECTION... AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 M BELOW NORMAL... EXPECT CHILLY
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S... A SLIGHT DOWNWARD BUMP FROM
EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DELMARVA LATE SUNDAY DEPARTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ITS COMMA HEAD WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND SLOWLY
WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S. BASED ON SOME
GUIDANCE...ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
WILL APPROACH FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS A
LIGHT WIND AND DRYING WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST.
THE SHOT OF COLDER AIR LOOKS TO BE VERY BRIEF AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE REGION...AND BEGIN AN
EVOLUTION INTO A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. WITH A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1320M MONDAY MORNING SUPPORT MET MOS GUIDANCE
MORE SO THAN THE MAV MOS...UPPER 60S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 70
SOUTHWEST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 39-44.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY IS IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL BE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A WEAK FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUESDAY AND THEN
WASH OUT WITHOUT HAVING MUCH...IF ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHEN THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND A FRONTAL ZONE PUSHES
EAST INTO CENTRAL NC FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A MUCH WARMER PERIOD FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH
THICKNESSES AS MUCH AS 20-30M ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHS IN THE 70S OR
EVEN 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST BY WED/THURS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z TONIGHT... AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AT 06Z. A DEEP MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SW... AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM NOW MOVING THROUGH MS AND WRN TN... WILL
BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK OR LULL IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS... MOST LIKELY FROM 11Z TO 16Z...
BUT CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS DURING THIS
TIME. THEN STARTING SOON AFTER 16Z... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS... BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH... AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA TO OUR NORTHEAST AFTER
22Z... HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS WILL BRING A CONTINUED THREAT OF MVFR-IFR CIGS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE NW WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE... BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z AT INT/GSO AND BETWEEN 04Z
AND 06Z AT RDU.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THROUGH 18Z SUN. WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE NW
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY... BRINGING A CROSSWIND THREAT MAINLY AT GSO/RDU.
BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND 00Z MON... SLOW WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA...
WITH AT TREND TO VFR AT INT/GSO/RDU LIKELY BY 00Z... AND AT RWI/FAY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
FROM LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>009-
021>025-038>040-073-074-083.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORT OUR EARLIER THINKING... THAT WE`LL SEE A
BORDERLINE STRONG/SEVERE EVENT WITH DAMAGING WIND AS A PRIME
THREAT... AND WITH EXTENT/SEVERITY LIKELY LIMITED BY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND A DELAY IN THE MORE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS.
CURRENTLY... WIDESPREAD RAIN PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NC...
DRIVEN BY DEEP MOIST UPGLIDE AND LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA... IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW DIGGING TOWARD THE
MID MISS VALLEY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THIS MOIST UPGLIDE
WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO OUR
NORTHEAST... BRINGING A RELATIVE LULL IN COVERAGE (MORE PATCHY THAN
THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE) FOR MOST AREAS BY MID MORNING AS
OVERALL ASCENT WEAKENS BRIEFLY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE
MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS. WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES SLIPPING BACK TO
LIKELY WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER QPF FROM SOON AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING... BUT EXPECT THICK LOW-BASED CLOUDS TO PERSIST
AREAWIDE. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR
OVER THE NW CWA (AND EXTENDING BACK TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF WRN NC)
WHERE THE RAIN IS EXITING... AND THESE AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
DENSE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK GIVEN THE LIGHT/CALM WINDS... DAMP
GROUND... AND PROXIMITY TO HIGHER TERRAIN TO HELP BLOCK THIS GROWING
STABLE POOL. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR THE
NW CWA... WHERE 1/4 MI VSBYS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING PERVASIVE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MATURE MCS NOW TRACKING THROUGH MS INTO
WRN AL (WITH IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES). ACCORDING
TO EXTRAPOLATION AND RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS... THE MCV EMANATING FROM
THIS MCS IS ON PACE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD... PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL/ERN NC BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z TODAY. A FEW FACTORS ARE APPARENT
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING SIMPLY THE EXISTENCE OF THE MCV AND ITS SIGNAL ON HIGH-RES
MODEL OUTPUT... AN AREA OF RELATIVE DRYING ALOFT (NOTED AT 700 MB ON
THE NAM/GFS) TO POTENTIALLY ELEVATE INSTABILITY... WARM NEAR-SURFACE
AIR WITH HIGH DEW POINTS (UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S)... AND A ROUGHLY 40
KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO SWEEP NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF NC 18Z-00Z TODAY. MODELS STILL INDICATE FAIRLY
SKINNY MUCAPE UP TO 500-1000 J/KG MAINLY OVER THE SE CWA FROM 18Z-
03Z (PEAKING 21Z-00Z) WITH LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS... SUGGESTING A
MAINLY WIND THREAT GIVEN SOME DRYING ALOFT. INITIALLY THOUGH -- AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD -- THESE HODOGRAPHS ARE CURVED ENOUGH TO
BRING ABOUT A CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE WEAK STABLE POOL. BUT IF THIS PRECEDING RAIN
PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH INTO THE DAY... IT COULD LIMIT THIS
INSTABILITY. ANOTHER MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE APPARENT SLIGHT
TEMPORAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN THESE FAVORABLE SIGNALS AND THE BEST
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF STRONG DPVA AND 150-200 M HEIGHT
FALLS... AS WELL AS A 500 MB JET STREAK OF 60+ KTS WHICH STRENGTHENS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND NOSES INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC 00Z-06Z.
FINALLY... THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD POOL NOW
TRACKING THROUGH AL MAY TRACK MOSTLY ACROSS GA/SC... AND THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER NC MAY BE SUBDUED. IN SUMMARY... WHILE
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS (AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO OR
SMALL HAIL REPORT OR TWO) REMAINS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST... A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
WE MAY SEE ANOTHER NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD... FOLLOWED BY A SW TO NE END TO
POPS OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT A CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN CLOSE TO A
MILLER-B... WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DISSIPATING OVER FAR SW VA
AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A WEAK TRIPLE POINT OVER THE
SW NC FOOTHILLS AND THEN TRACKS NE OVER WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NC
INTO SE VA TONIGHT. THE RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TRACKS OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
THUS AN INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER FOR LINGERING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.
FOLLOWING HIGH-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE... EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM
MID 60S NW TO MID 70S SE... NO BETTER THAN A 10-15 DEG F DIURNAL
RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT 41 NW TO 48 SE.
FOR SUNDAY: EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO HOLD PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NRN CWA AS THE LOW ALOFT SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR NE WILL GENERATE A TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS NC... AND EXPECT WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED FROM THE WNW OR NW AT
15-20 MPH (HIGHEST IN THE WEST WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE STRONGEST
WITHIN 100-120 M HEIGHT RISES... AND LOWER NE WHERE MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL BE LOWER)... WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH... BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT THIS RISK WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE LOW LEVELS
DO DRY OUT WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW BUT THIS RELATIVELY DRY LAYER WILL BE
SHALLOW... AND WE MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OVER
THE NRN CWA IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTIFUL
CLOUDINESS... BRISK NW WINDS... COLD AIR ADVECTION... AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 M BELOW NORMAL... EXPECT CHILLY
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S... A SLIGHT DOWNWARD BUMP FROM
EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM / /...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
TO BE UPDATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING CLEAR/SUNNY/MILD WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE (OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) MOVES OVERHEAD. LOWS 35-42. HIGHS 67-
72.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
LEAD TO A MUCH WARMER PERIOD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THE MAIN STORM
TRACK FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE CANADA WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP ANY POP OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S (WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE
SANDHILLS MID-WEEK) WITH THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. LOWS WARM FROM 40-45
TUE... INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THU.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND/OR FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH STORM TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT THE SHOULD
EDGE TO NEAR THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z/FRIDAY... AND PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. WE WILL PLACE A LOW END CHANCE POP IN THE
FORECAST THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. LOWS 55-
62. HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY 70-75 DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z TONIGHT... AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AT 06Z. A DEEP MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SW... AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM NOW MOVING THROUGH MS AND WRN TN... WILL
BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK OR LULL IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS... MOST LIKELY FROM 11Z TO 16Z...
BUT CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS DURING THIS
TIME. THEN STARTING SOON AFTER 16Z... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS... BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH... AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA TO OUR NORTHEAST AFTER
22Z... HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS WILL BRING A CONTINUED THREAT OF MVFR-IFR CIGS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE NW WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE... BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z AT INT/GSO AND BETWEEN 04Z
AND 06Z AT RDU.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THROUGH 18Z SUN. WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE NW
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY... BRINGING A CROSSWIND THREAT MAINLY AT GSO/RDU.
BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND 00Z MON... SLOW WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA...
WITH AT TREND TO VFR AT INT/GSO/RDU LIKELY BY 00Z... AND AT RWI/FAY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
FROM LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>009-
021>025-038>040-073-074-083.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORT OUR EARLIER THINKING... THAT WE`LL SEE A
BORDERLINE STRONG/SEVERE EVENT WITH DAMAGING WIND AS A PRIME
THREAT... AND WITH EXTENT/SEVERITY LIKELY LIMITED BY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND A DELAY IN THE MORE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS.
CURRENTLY... WIDESPREAD RAIN PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NC...
DRIVEN BY DEEP MOIST UPGLIDE AND LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA... IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW DIGGING TOWARD THE
MID MISS VALLEY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THIS MOIST UPGLIDE
WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO OUR
NORTHEAST... BRINGING A RELATIVE LULL IN COVERAGE (MORE PATCHY THAN
THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE) FOR MOST AREAS BY MID MORNING AS
OVERALL ASCENT WEAKENS BRIEFLY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE
MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS. WILL INDICATE PRECIP CHANCES SLIPPING BACK TO
LIKELY WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER QPF FROM SOON AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING... BUT EXPECT THICK LOW-BASED CLOUDS TO PERSIST
AREAWIDE. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR
OVER THE NW CWA (AND EXTENDING BACK TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF WRN NC)
WHERE THE RAIN IS EXITING... AND THESE AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
DENSE FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK GIVEN THE LIGHT/CALM WINDS... DAMP
GROUND... AND PROXIMITY TO HIGHER TERRAIN TO HELP BLOCK THIS GROWING
STABLE POOL. WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR THE
NW CWA... WHERE 1/4 MI VSBYS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING PERVASIVE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MATURE MCS NOW TRACKING THROUGH MS INTO
WRN AL (WITH IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES). ACCORDING
TO EXTRAPOLATION AND RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS... THE MCV EMANATING FROM
THIS MCS IS ON PACE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD... PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL/ERN NC BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z TODAY. A FEW FACTORS ARE APPARENT
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING SIMPLY THE EXISTENCE OF THE MCV AND ITS SIGNAL ON HIGH-RES
MODEL OUTPUT... AN AREA OF RELATIVE DRYING ALOFT (NOTED AT 700 MB ON
THE NAM/GFS) TO POTENTIALLY ELEVATE INSTABILITY... WARM NEAR-SURFACE
AIR WITH HIGH DEW POINTS (UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S)... AND A ROUGHLY 40
KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO SWEEP NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF NC 18Z-00Z TODAY. MODELS STILL INDICATE FAIRLY
SKINNY MUCAPE UP TO 500-1000 J/KG MAINLY OVER THE SE CWA FROM 18Z-
03Z (PEAKING 21Z-00Z) WITH LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS... SUGGESTING A
MAINLY WIND THREAT GIVEN SOME DRYING ALOFT. INITIALLY THOUGH -- AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD -- THESE HODOGRAPHS ARE CURVED ENOUGH TO
BRING ABOUT A CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE WEAK STABLE POOL. BUT IF THIS PRECEDING RAIN
PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH INTO THE DAY... IT COULD LIMIT THIS
INSTABILITY. ANOTHER MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE APPARENT SLIGHT
TEMPORAL DISCONNECT BETWEEN THESE FAVORABLE SIGNALS AND THE BEST
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF STRONG DPVA AND 150-200 M HEIGHT
FALLS... AS WELL AS A 500 MB JET STREAK OF 60+ KTS WHICH STRENGTHENS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND NOSES INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC 00Z-06Z.
FINALLY... THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD POOL NOW
TRACKING THROUGH AL MAY TRACK MOSTLY ACROSS GA/SC... AND THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER NC MAY BE SUBDUED. IN SUMMARY... WHILE
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS (AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO OR
SMALL HAIL REPORT OR TWO) REMAINS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST... A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
WE MAY SEE ANOTHER NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD... FOLLOWED BY A SW TO NE END TO
POPS OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT A CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN CLOSE TO A
MILLER-B... WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DISSIPATING OVER FAR SW VA
AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG A WEAK TRIPLE POINT OVER THE
SW NC FOOTHILLS AND THEN TRACKS NE OVER WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NC
INTO SE VA TONIGHT. THE RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TRACKS OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
THUS AN INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER FOR LINGERING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.
FOLLOWING HIGH-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE... EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM
MID 60S NW TO MID 70S SE... NO BETTER THAN A 10-15 DEG F DIURNAL
RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT 41 NW TO 48 SE. -GIH
FROM 300 PM FRIDAY:
THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER SUNDAY WAS STILL VARIABLE WITHIN
THE MODEL OUTPUT. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ALONG OR NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER REGION DURING
SUNDAY MORNING... THEN SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
TRACK... AND WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE
AROUND 12Z/SUNDAY... CENTRAL NC IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE DRY SLOT
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE MAY STILL BE A RESIDUAL SHOWER
CHANCE... MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE... UNLESS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION COMES FARTHER SOUTH...
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES. BY AFTERNOON...
NVA AND DOWNSLOPE SINKING IN THE MEAN WNW FLOW IN THE REAR OF THE
STORM WILL LEAD TO CLEARING/WINDY/MILD CONDITIONS. HIGHS SUNDAY
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO NEAR 70 IN THE SE. NW WINDS AT
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. -PWB
&&
.SHORT TERM / /...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
TO BE UPDATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING CLEAR/SUNNY/MILD WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE (OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) MOVES OVERHEAD. LOWS 35-42. HIGHS 67-
72.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
LEAD TO A MUCH WARMER PERIOD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THE MAIN STORM
TRACK FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE CANADA WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP ANY POP OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S (WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE
SANDHILLS MID-WEEK) WITH THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. LOWS WARM FROM 40-45
TUE... INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THU.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND/OR FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH STORM TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT THE SHOULD
EDGE TO NEAR THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z/FRIDAY... AND PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. WE WILL PLACE A LOW END CHANCE POP IN THE
FORECAST THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. LOWS 55-
62. HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY 70-75 DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SATURDAY...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z TONIGHT... AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD AT 06Z. A DEEP MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SW... AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM NOW MOVING THROUGH MS AND WRN TN... WILL
BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
DAYBREAK. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK OR LULL IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS... MOST LIKELY FROM 11Z TO 16Z...
BUT CIGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS DURING THIS
TIME. THEN STARTING SOON AFTER 16Z... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS... BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH... AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA TO OUR NORTHEAST AFTER
22Z... HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS WILL BRING A CONTINUED THREAT OF MVFR-IFR CIGS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE NW WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE... BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z AT INT/GSO AND BETWEEN 04Z
AND 06Z AT RDU.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THROUGH 18Z SUN. WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE NW
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY... BRINGING A CROSSWIND THREAT MAINLY AT GSO/RDU.
BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND 00Z MON... SLOW WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA...
WITH AT TREND TO VFR AT INT/GSO/RDU LIKELY BY 00Z... AND AT RWI/FAY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
FROM LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/PWB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
145 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO TEXAS WILL MOVE
INTO CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...RELATIVELY WARM
AND HUMID AIR WILL STREAM NORTHWARD...ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY...BRINGING A RISK FOR
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1115 PM FRIDAY...UPDATE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH
MASSAGING THE OVERNIGHT HOURLY POPS. LATEST MOSAIC 88D RADAR
TRENDS WILL BE MESHED WITH THE LATEST SREF MODEL PROBABILITY FOR
OVERNIGHT MEASURABLE PCPN. THIS EVOLVED INTO MODIFYING THE HRLY
POPS UP TO SEVERAL HRS AFTER DAYBREAK SAT. A COUPLE FAINT MID
LEVEL VORTS OR S/W TROFS ALOFT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT
LENDING TO MODEST UVVS ACROSS THE FA ESPECIALLY DURING THE
PRE-DAWN SAT HRS. LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MORE
WIDESPREAD PCPN SHIELD TO ENCOMPASS THE ILM CWA DURING THIS LATE
EVENING THRU THE PRE-DAWN SAT HRS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED OVERNITE
QPF BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVED ACTIVITY AND LATEST VARIOUS MODEL
QPF OUTPUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAINLY WILL HOLD STEADY OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY INCREASE AS THE FA BECOMES BETTER ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER S/W TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.....................................
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A LARGE MCS ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF THIS FEATURE ARE LARGELY LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH...WITH AN EXPANSIVE BUT
DETERIORATING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD...
AFFECTING THE SC PEE DEE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER
GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS WELL AS SMALL ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED BY A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF STREAM OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HELPED KICK OFF THE GULF COAST MCS
WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...APPROACHING THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
LATE. WHILE A RENEWED BLOWUP OF CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
MEAGER INSTABILITY...A DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND AN
INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE RAIN/SHOWER
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE COAST. WHILE I CAN`T
BRING MYSELF TO PUT 100 POPS IN THE FORECAST...80-90 PERCENT SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD GROW TO 1.5 INCHES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IN TERMS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE
MODELS HAVE HANDLED (OR MISHANDLED) TWO ASPECTS OF THE WEATHER
TODAY. ONE IS THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...
PARTICULARLY WHEN CONTRASTED TO THE RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED INLAND TODAY. MOST SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE
GFS) HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH MARINE WIND SPEEDS ALL DAY. ALSO OF
NOTE IS THE PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO
GEORGETOWN THIS MORNING AND NOW COVERS BRUNSWICK COUNTY ACROSS
WHITEVILLE INTO LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
WELL-FORECAST BY THE HRRR AND NAM BUT NOT THE GFS. PREFERRED MODELS
TONIGHT INCLUDE THE HRRR IN THE VERY NEAR-TERM...THEN THE 12Z NAM
AND 12Z CANADIAN OVERNIGHT.
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
ONLY FALL TO 59-60 INLAND WITH 57-58 NEAR THE BEACHES DUE TO WINDS
BLOWING IN OFF THE COLDER NEARSHORE WATERS. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS
MUCH CLOSER TO MY IDEAS THAN THE GFS MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO CENTER
AROUND THE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUES. I HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFS FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM.
INITIALLY WE COULD HAVE A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN COMING OFF THE
ATLANTIC. AFTER THIS...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IF YOU WILL WITH SOME
NVA IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL FEATURE. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FINALLY
GETS ORGANIZED AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH YET ANOTHER DEEP MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND THE EVENING HOURS FOR
COASTAL SITES. SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINAL AND CONTINUE TO
HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH THE NAM/MET NUMBERS
QUITE A BIT LOWER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY. I WOULD EXPECT ANY
BREAKS AND THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO JUMP
MORE TOWARD THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS. GUIDANCE TRENDS CLOSER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO OFFER RAIN-FREE
WEATHER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO WHILST NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD BE EVEN
MILDER. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO FLORIDA ON MONDAY KEEPING LOCAL
WINDS RATHER LIGHT. MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT THE HIGH SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE FLATTENS. END RESULT WILL BE A
SLIGHT BOLSTERING OF THE WARM ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. UPPER
LEVEL AMPLITUDE WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND DEVELOPS INTO THE PLAINS
THURSDAY...MOVING INTO OHIO VALLEY COME FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BRIEF
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE...AS VARYING LOW CIGS AND RAIN
AND AREAS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MIX OF MVFR/IFR
CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AS LOW TO MID CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS REGARDING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS...BUT HAVE KEPT PREVAILING
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR AS VARYING LOWERED CIGS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. ALSO EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO AREAS OF FOG AND
SHOWERS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 12 KTS
AND PERIODIC GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
STRONGER STORMS...AROUND 20 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD...COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH CONVECTION
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1115 PM FRIDAY...THIS UPDATE REMAINS MORE CONCERNED WITH
THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG...AND THE ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL
VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1 NM. THIS A RESULT OF 60+ SFC DEW
POINTS PUSHING ACROSS SHELF WATER SSTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
HAVE CONTINUED THE OVERALL ONSHORE WIND REGIME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE PROGGED SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT
KEEPING WINDS FROM THE SSE-S AT 10 TO 15 KT WIND SPEEDS. WAA
WINDS TOUGH TO MIX DOWN TO THE OCEAN SURFACE EXHIBITING 50 DEGREE
SSTS. HOWEVER...THE SFC PG IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER TIGHTEN BUT NOT
UNTIL THE MAIN SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH CLOSER TO THE FA DURING
DAYLIGHT SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE STABILIZED LATE THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER BY OR JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. BUILDING WIND DRIVEN WAVES JUST OFFSHORE...
HAVING BEEN CREATED BY THE HIER SE-S WINDS JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE
MUCH WARMER SSTS...WILL PUSH INTO THE LOCAL WATERS AND MESH WITH
THE LOCAL WAVES. SCA REMAINS BONAFIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT SEAS THE PRIMARY REASON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.....................................
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE
CAROLINAS ARE IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS MODEL
HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH WIND SPEEDS ALL DAY...BUT A COMBINATION OF
THE 12Z NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD FIT. SOUTH WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WILL RAISE A SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVE...BUT STRONGER WINDS
OFFSHORE WILL CREATE LARGER WAVES THAT WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE COMBINATION SHOULD CREATE 4-6 FOOT SEAS
WITH A 6 SECOND DOMINANT PERIOD...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS. WAVES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH HEAVIER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. PM FRIDAY...
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FAIRLY BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
15-20 KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT EDGE
CLOSER FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS BETWEEN 0600
AND 1200 UTC SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE WEST AND INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY...THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT HOPEFULLY NOT THE LEVEL WE SAW EARLIER IN
THE WEEK TO GALE CRITERIA. BY MONDAY MORNING THERE IS A SLOW
DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL HOVER AROUND SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AND I WILL
GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY TO COVER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANGE IN FETCH SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MONDAY STARTS WITH A MODERATE NW FLOW A RESULT
OF BOTH DEEPENING STORM MOVING UP THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AS BOTH PROGRESS EASTWARD THE
LOCAL GRADIENT SHOULD REALLY EASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND BY MONDAY
NIGHT THERE MAY BE A LIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR A TRUE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HIGH TAKES A MORE OFFSHORE
POSITION GENERATING A LIGHT S TO SW FLOW LOCALLY. SEAS BUILD FROM
THEIR MINIMAL MONDAY NIGHT VALUES TO ABOUT 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1131 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING STORM ON THE NJ COAST MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AND LEAD
TO FAIR AND MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10PM UPDATE...
LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...WE KEEP WATCHING THE SNOW/RAIN/SLEET REPEAT
OVER THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE BAND FROM EASTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY
DOWN TO THE MARYLAND BORDER. THE EMBEDDED ECHOES ARE A BIT WEAKER
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE TREND TOWARD WEAKENING AND
SHRINKING SHOULD CONTINUE AS DEPICTED BY THE FADING FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING BEING PORTRAYED IN THE RAP OUTPUT.
WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIP IS FALLING AS RAIN...WE HAVE ENOUGH
LOCATIONS SEEING ACCUMULATING WET SNOW TO WARRANT KEEPING THE
ADVISORY. THIS HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY COMPLEX SYSTEM TO GRAPPLE
WITH AS PRECIP RATES AND ELEVATIONS HAVE HAD MUCH TO DO WITH
WHERE THE SNOW FELL HARD ENUF TO ACCUMULATE.
IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE COMMON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STORM FOR MONDAY.
RESIDUAL MSTR WILL PROBABLY HOLD CLOUDS IN THE WRN MTS AT
FIRST...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER VERY NICELY AS 8H TEMPS SHOOT BACK
INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND MAY HAVE A BIT OF A DELAY IN THE RECOVERY...BUT ALMOST-
APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD DO SOME GOOD MELTING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED SO PRECIPITATION IS LESS LIKELY. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SW
MTNS...HOWEVER THIS IS LESS LIKELY CONSIDERING ANY LINGERING HIGH
PRESSURE. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS SHOULD LIE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS COULD
ALLOW...FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS. A WEAK RIDGE COULD STIFLE
PRECIP EARLY THURSDAY. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL VARIATION ON POSITION AND
TIMING...BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NOSES INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MORE RAIN. INTO LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
31/03Z UPDATE...IR STLT LOOP SHOWS GRADUAL W-E CLEARING TREND OVER
ZOB SECTOR TAFS. CIGS HAVE COME UP TO HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR OVER CNTRL
SITES...WITH THE LOWEST CONDS STILL PERSISTING AT MDT/LNS WHERE
NARROW RAIN/SNOW BAND ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES
TO IMPACT SERN PA. LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW THIS BAND WEAKENING
AND SHIFTING EWD AFT 09Z. THIS ANTICIPATE CLEARING TO EXPAND EWD
LATE TNGT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STIFF NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
FROM W TO EAST BY MONDAY EVE...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES
EWD FROM THE OH VLY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...LOW CIGS RAIN/SNOW ENDING ERN SXNS EARLY BCMG VFR. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
TUE...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA ASSOC WITH
COLD FRONT.
WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND ASSOC LOW CIGS/VIS LKLY
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY INVOF THE AIRSPACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WILL ALLOW THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SERN ZONES TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE /1 AM/. WILL CUT BACK AREA OF FLS TO JUST YORK COUNTY
BUT EXTEND THE END TIME...BASED ON NON-FCST POINT TRACES STILL
WELL-ABOVE ACTION STAGES.
MAINSTEM SUSQ RIVER POINTS ARE FCST CREST NEAR OR A FEW FEET
ABOVE CAUTIONARY STAGES. ONLY POINT IN FLOOD IS YELLOW BREECHES
CREEK WHICH IS FCST TO CREST JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE /9FT/
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ057>059-065-066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ042-
051>053-057>059-064>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/COLBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
HYDROLOGY...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
753 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING STORM ON THE NJ COAST MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AND LEAD
TO FAIR AND MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
445PM UPDATE...
RAPID CHANGES TAKING PLACE AS THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND OF
PRECIP IS GENERATING JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR TO CREATE LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW. WEB CAMS AND REPORTS WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY
INTO THE EVENING AS CONDITIONS VARY WILDLY FROM NOTHING AT ALL
HAPPENING OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA...TO HEAVY SNOW AND
SLEET AND RAIN OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN 1/3 OR SO OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
THE SLOW MOVING BAND OF RAIN-SNOW-SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY
SLOWLY DRIFT OVER MY EASTERN ZONES. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE INTENSE
ENOUGH...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED. STILL THINKING
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES...BUT THE
ROADS WILL BE SLIPPERY AND SLUSHY IN THE MORE PERSISTENT HEAVY
SNOW BANDS.
FROM EARLIER...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 19Z SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SUSQ MAINSTEM
/AND POINTS WEST TO INTERSTATE 81 ACROSS SCENT PENN/
THIS AREA OF PERSISTENT/HEAVY PRECIP IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF
THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A MODERATELY STRONG DEFORMATION BAND AND
MID-LEVEL FGEN FORCING /ENHANCED BY A WELL-DEFINED SPOKE OF
VORTICITY SPIRALING AROUND THE NWRN EDGE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/.
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE THE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCENT PENN HAVE PROMPTED US TO UPGRADE OUR
EARLIER FLOOD ADVISORY TO A FLOOD WARNING FOR ADAMS AND YORK
COUNTIES...WITH THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK AT CAMP HILL FORECAST TO
EXCEED FS TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER CAA WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY MIX...THEN CHANGE THE RAIN
OVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS EVEN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE A GRADUAL DECREASING
TREND IN THE LIGHTER SNOW OCCURS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS
OF THE STATE.
CANCELLED THE WINT WX ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT SULLIVAN COUNTY...WHICH
STILL RUNS THROUGH 4 PM TODAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW
HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z RAP.
15Z/18Z RAP DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB SIMULATING THIS NEARLY
STATIONARY/SLOWLY WWD DRIFTING BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP SWIRLING
AROUND THE 546 DAM UPPER LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW A TREND OF
MAINTAINING THIS RATHER HIGH RAINFALL INTENSITY /AND RATE OF AT
LEAST .3 TO .6 OF AN INCH PER HOUR/ BEFORE CHANGING IT TO A FEW
TO SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF /WET/ SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING THE PRECIP RATES AND SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AREA
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ REGION AND ECENT MTNS TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL QPF /LIKELY BETWEEN 0.5-1.0 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN AND
MELTED WET SNOW ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION/
WILL GRADUALLY TREND LOWER...THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY AS YOU HEAD NW
TWD THE I-99/RT 220 CORRIDOR.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAIN/WET SNOW MIXTURE WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUM
AT ELEVATIONS AOB 1400 FT MSL. MAINLY RAIN /MDT TO HVY AT TIMES/
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH BIG...SLOPPY WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN TO THE WEST
OF I-83.
TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SE
INVOF KLNS. SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SCENT...AND ECENT PENN
/MAINLY AOA 1400 FT MSL/ COULD START TO SEE A GROUND COVERING OF
WET SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FEW ADDITIONAL
SPOKES OF VORTICITY AND N/S PRECIP BANDS ROTATE WWD AROUND THE
UPPER LOW.
2-DAY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AND MELTED SNOW BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
HAVE REACHED 4-5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SCENT PENN /ADAMS AND
YORK COUNTIES/...JUST WEST OF THE SUSQ RIVER...WHILE OTHER
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT EASTERN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA COME IN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES.
WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF IN THE WEST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST
AND SIGNIFICANT LIFT EXITS WITH IT.
THE OTHER INCREASINGLY NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE WEATHER WILL BE THE
GUSTY 30-40 MPH WIND THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE STRENGTHENING
LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST IN THE WAKE OF THIS CURRENT SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT OVER THE FAR
EAST...WITH MINOR ACCUMS OF A COATING TO ONE INCH /PERHAPS 2
INCHES ON THE RIDGES AOA 1600 FT MSL FROM SCHUYLKILL CTY...NORTH
TO SULLIVAN CTY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STORM FOR MONDAY.
RESIDUAL MSTR WILL PROBABLY HOLD CLOUDS IN THE WRN MTS AT
FIRST...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER VERY NICELY AS 8H TEMPS SHOOT BACK
INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND MAY HAVE A BIT OF A DELAY IN THE RECOVERY...BUT ALMOST-
APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD DO SOME GOOD MELTING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA/GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED SO PRECIPITATION IS LESS LIKELY. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SW
MTNS...HOWEVER THIS IS LESS LIKELY CONSIDERING ANY LINGERING HIGH
PRESSURE. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS SHOULD LIE
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS COULD
ALLOW...FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS. A WEAK RIDGE COULD STIFLE
PRECIP EARLY THURSDAY. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL VARIATION ON POSITION AND
TIMING...BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NOSES INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND BRINGING MORE RAIN. INTO LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG/SLOW-MOVG DEEP LAYER SFC-UPPER LOW CENTER WILL SLOWLY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC COAST TNGT INTO MONDAY. A NARROW BAND
OF MIXED PCPN ALONG WITH BROADER AREA OF LOW CIGS WILL ALSO SHIFT
SLOWLY EWD IN TIME...WITH CLEARING /TO VFR/ EXPECTED ACRS WRN SXNS
IN ZOB SECTOR BY 03-04Z. THE CNTRL AND PARTICULARLY ERN TAFS WILL
TAKE THE LONGEST TO CLR WITH RA/SN/PL MIXED PTYPES IMPACTING MDT
AND (TO A LESSER EXTENT) LNS THRU 06-07Z AND LOW CIGS PERHAPS
UNTL 14-15Z. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM W TO EAST THRU
THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES EWD FROM THE
OH VLY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...LOW CIGS RAIN/SNOW ENDING ERN SXNS EARLY BCMG VFR. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
TUE...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.
WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND ASSOCD LOW CIGS/VIS LKLY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE AIRSPACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT EASTERN THIRD OF CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND OFF MID ATLC COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE NWWD BANDS OF MDT TO HEAVY RAIN OVER
SCENT AND EASTERN PENN TODAY.
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SCENT
MTNS...LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ECENT MTNS...AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
TO THE N/W OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES TO THE EAST AS WELL. THE
RAIN MAY NOT MOVE OUT ENTIRELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER. THUS...THE
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO COVER THE PERIOD OF RUNOFF. BUT
HAVE NOT MADE THIS MOVE QUITE YET. LOCALIZED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY OVER THE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE SMALL STREAMS AND SOME MAY BE RISING TO
BANKFULL BEFORE NOON. MANY OF THE LARGER WATERWAYS MAY GET TO
THEIR CAUTION STAGES...BUT THESE EFFECTS WOULD BE DELAYED FOR A
PERIOD OR TWO. THE MAINSTEM RIVER IS ALREADY PROGGED TO REACH
CAUTION STAGES AT MANY PLACES WITH CURRENT QPF IN THE HYDRO MODEL.
MMEFS PROBS FOR EXCEDENCE MAY BE UNDERDONE IN THE SREF
DATA...MAINLY DUE TO THE SHIFTING QPF AREAS/CENTERS AMONGST THE
MEMBERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ057>059-065-066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ042-
051>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/COLBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
HYDROLOGY...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
115 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE
AND MOVE TO THE DELMARVA REGION BY TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GET DEEPER...SLOWING DOWN THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY. MILDER TEMPERATURES BUT CONTINUED UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY RECENTLY ISSUED FOR WARREN...MCKEAN AND
POTTER COUNTIES 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON SUNDAY.
WORDED FCST AND GRIDDED FIELDS TRACKING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED.
THE NW EDGE OF A LARGE SHIELD OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS BLOSSOM/ADVECT NWD INTO SCENT PENN AND
THE LAURELS.
THIS WILL BE A LONG-DURATION PRECIP EVENT FOR MOST OF THE
CWA...LASTING BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY...BUT LATER SECTIONS OF THIS DISCUSSION WILL COVER THE
WINTRY ASPECTS OF THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM /EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST AS WE HEAD INTO
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/.
FOR THE NEAR TERM...POCKETS OF EARLIER SUNSHINE NEAR AND JUST TO
THE NORTH OF I-80 HAVE VANISHED WITH THICK...LAYERED CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
12Z 13KM RAP AND 09Z SREF INDICATE THAT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN WILL STAY DRY UNDER MAINLY A MID CLOUD DECK THROUGH 18-20Z
BEFORE THE RAIN ENCROACHES FROM THE SW AND SE.
PRACTICALLY ALL LOCATIONS IN THE CWA SHOULD SEE RAIN BY 23Z
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS /BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH/
OCCURRING ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND FAR SERN COUNTIES.
16Z TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 40F ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE...AND WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON /BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE 30S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AFTER 20Z/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF AND THE WIND PULLS IN LOTS
OF MOISTURE...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH/GOMEX. BUT THE SYSTEM ALMOST
STALLS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT MAINLY OVER THE EAST WHERE FLOOD WATCH IS ALREADY IN
EFFECT. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE ON WATER ISSUES.
THE OTHER TROUBLE WITH THE PRECIP IS THAT THE TEMPS SLOWLY DROP
IN THE EVENING /AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/ ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS. THUS...THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND HIGHER ELEVATION IN
THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL LIKELY SEE THE RAIN TURN TO A FEW-0SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD OF FZRA...A SHORTER PERIOD OF SLEET...THEN EVENTUALLY
ACCUMULATING WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH 2-4
INCHES LIKELY.
THE INITIAL FREEZING RAIN /FROM WARREN COUNTY EAST TO POTTER
COUNTY/...COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH IN SOME
AREAS AS NEAR SFC TEMPS COOL BELOW FREEZING...PRIOR TO THE ZERO C
ISOTHERM ARRIVING IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER/.
TEMPS DO NOT SEEM TO EVER GET AOB FZG IN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION SO...WILL JUST GO WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE/MIX HERE. QPF IN
THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE CHANGE TO SNOW IS A VERY DIFFICULT PART OF
THE FCST. IN GENERAL...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HEAVY PRECIP
WILL BE TO THE EAST BY LATE TONIGHT...AND THAT SHOULD LIMIT THE
UPPER END OF THE SNOW ACCUMS TO 3 OR 4 INCHES /WHICH AGREES WELL
WITH A BLEND OF THE 09Z SREF AND 12Z NAM 24-HOUR SNOW ACCUMS/.
BIG FOCUS AND COORDINATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL CONCERN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL /OR MORE/ INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW
ACROSS THE LAURELS. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME WE/RE LEANING TWD WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TYPE AMTS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE DAYTIME /AND LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE/ ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP
TEMPS RISE SLIGHTLY...BUT THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE RIGHT
OVERHEAD. CLOUDS WILL BE THICK EVEN WHERE THE PRECIP GETS
LIGHTER/SPOTTY. IT WONT FEEL TOO NICE WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S NW AND
L-M40S ELSEWHERE. THE WIND WILL GET CRANKING WITH THE DEEPENING
SFC LOW VERY CLOSE BY. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR THE FURTHER SLOW-DOWN IN THE CONSENSUS
OF MDL DATA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
WEEKEND/S STORM...RESULTING IN LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EAST FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AT THIS POINT...MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE BEST DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE...FAIR SKIES...AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. SUNSHINE WILL MAKE A BRIEF RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MOVE EAST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF MODEL
SPREAD...BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NOSES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING MORE RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR TO VFR STRATO CU AND AREAS OF ALTO CU ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
PENN WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...TO MAINLY IFR
WITH POCKETS OF LIFR AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH...AND CHANGES FROM FZRA TO SLEET...THEN SNOW INVOF KBFD AND
POINTS WEST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
IFR ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL STAY INTACT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF LIFR LIKELY IN FOG /AND
EVENTUALLY MIXED PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE LAURELS/.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVR THE SE STATES WILL LIFT UP THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS LATER TODAY...HELPING TO SPREAD RAIN AND LOWERING
CIGS NORTHWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
UNSTABLE AIR WORKING INTO SE PA WILL BRING A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A
A FEW TSRA ARND KMDT AND KLNS THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...WINDY. RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP EAST.
MON-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT EASTERN THIRD OF CWA FOR LATER
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF AND POSSIBLY STALL ALONG MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE MDT
TO HEAVY RAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PD. THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IF A WIDELY
PROGGED DEFORMATION-TYPE AREA OF PRECIP FORMS ON SUNDAY. LOCALIZED
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE. BUT IF IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE PRECIP WILL RE-INVIGORATE ON
SUNDAY...THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. GEFS/SREF GUIDANCE
SHOWS PWAT ANOMALIES GREATER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATES OVER EASTERN
PA SAT AFTN AND EVENING PROVIDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR HIGH
RAINFALL RATES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR PAZ028-036-037-041-042-
046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...LAMBERT
HYDROLOGY...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
943 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE
AND MOVE TO THE DELMARVA REGION BY TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GET DEEPER...SLOWING DOWN THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY. MILDER TEMPERATURES BUT CONTINUED UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NW EDGE OF A LARGE SHIELD OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH AND IS ENTERING FAR SERN YORK COUNTY AND
SERN LANCASTER COUNTY AT 13Z. THIS WILL BE A LONG-DURATION PRECIP
EVENT FOR MOST OF THE CWA...LASTING BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN OF VARYING
INTENSITY...BUT LATER SECTIONS OF THIS DISCUSSION WILL COVER THE
WINTRY ASPECTS OF THIS SLOW-MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM /EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST AS WE PROGRESS
LATER INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE NEAR TERM...POCKETS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THIN CIRRUS JUST
NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR /AND SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOWER
STRATUS/STRATOCU AND NS CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH/ WILL VANISH
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AS THICKER...LAYERED CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM
THE SOUTH.
12Z 13KM RAP AND 09Z SREF INDICATE THAT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN
PENN WILL STAY DRY UNDER MAINLY A MID CLOUD DECK THROUGH 18-20Z
BEFORE THE RAIN ENCROACHES FROM THE SW AND SE.
PRACTICALLY ALL LOCATIONS IN THE CWA SHOULD SEE RAIN BY 23Z
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS /BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH/
OCCURRING ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND FAR SERN COUNTIES.
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING /AFTER EXTENDED PERIODS OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT/... BUT ARE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WHERE CLOUD COVER ADVANCED INTO THAT REGION MUCH EARLIER.
AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND RAIN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL SLOW THEIR CLIMB AND LEVEL
OFF. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE U30S IN THE NW...TO AROUND 50F IN
THE SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF AND THE WIND PULLS IN LOTS
OF MOISTURE...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH/GOMEX. BUT THE SYSTEM ALMOST
STALLS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT MAINLY OVER THE EAST WHERE FLOOD WATCH IS ALREADY IN
EFFECT. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE ON WATER ISSUES.
THE OTHER TROUBLE WITH THE PRECIP IS THAT THE TEMPS DO DROP IN THE
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THUS...THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND HIGHER ELEVATION IN THE CENTRAL MTNS WILL LIKELY SEE
THE RAIN TURN TO SNOW AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. SOME INDICATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN...WITH TEMPS COOLING BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE
ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS. THUS...HAVE MENTIONED CHC ZR IN THE GRIDS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH THE TURN OVER TO SNOW
- WHICH IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. TEMPS DO NOT SEEM TO EVER GET AOB
FZG IN THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION SO...WILL JUST GO WITH A
GRADUAL CHANGE/MIX HERE. QPF IN THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE CHANGE TO
SNOW IS A VERY DIFFICULT PART OF THE FCST. IN GENERAL...THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE TO THE EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...AND SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO IN
THE FAR NWRN COS...BUT IF IT TURNS MORE-QUICKLY...3-4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE. BUT...WILL KEEP THE FCST CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT.
THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP TEMPS RISE SLIGHTLY...BUT THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD. CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
EVEN WHERE THE PRECIP GETS LIGHTER/SPOTTY. IT WONT FEEL TOO NICE
WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S NW AND L-M40S ELSEWHERE. THE WIND WILL GET
CRANKING WITH THE DEEPENING SFC LOW VERY CLOSE BY. HAVE NUDGED
POPS UP FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR THE FURTHER
SLOW-DOWN IN THE CONSENSUS OF MDL DATA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
WEEKEND/S STORM...RESULTING IN LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EAST FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AT THIS POINT...MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE BEST DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE...FAIR SKIES...AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. SUNSHINE WILL MAKE A BRIEF RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MOVE EAST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF MODEL
SPREAD...BUT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NOSES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING MORE RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS ACROSS
THE N MTNS...THE RESULT OF RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH INVERSION AND FORCED TO ASCEND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN PA. KBFD CONTINUES TO REPORT A CIG OF JUST 200FT AT
13Z...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...YIELDING TO AN IFR TO MVFR DECK OF STRATO CU THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR STRATO CU WERE NOTED ACRS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
/INCLUDING KMDT......KCXY...KTHV AND KLNS/ WITH VFR BKN-OVC ALTOCU
ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVR THE SE STATES WILL LIFT UP THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS LATER TODAY...HELPING TO SPREAD RAIN AND LOWERING
CIGS NORTHWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDS IN RAIN/LOW CIGS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES PA. COLDER AIR WRAPPING INTO THIS SYSTEM COULD
CHANGE RAIN TO MIXED PRECIP AT KBFD LATE THIS EVENING...WHILE
UNSTABLE AIR WORKING INTO SE PA COULD POTENTIALLY SPAWN A FEW TSRA
ARND KMDT AND KLNS THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...WINDY. RAIN/LOW CIGS POSS...ESP EAST.
MON-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT EASTERN THIRD OF CWA FOR LATER
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF AND POSSIBLY STALL ALONG MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MDT TO HEAVY RAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PD.
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IF
A WIDELY PROGGED DEFORMATION-TYPE AREA OF PRECIP FORMS ON SUNDAY.
LOCALIZED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE. BUT
IF IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE PRECIP WILL RE-INVIGORATE ON
SUNDAY...THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. GEFS/SREF GUIDANCE
SHOWS PWAT ANOMALIES GREATER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATES OVER EASTERN
PA SAT AFTN AND EVENING PROVIDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR HIGH
RAINFALL RATES.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR PAZ028-036-037-041-042-
046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
HYDROLOGY...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
104 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SFC LOW/COLD FRONT NOW WELL EAST OF THE MID-STATE BUT PLENTY
OF LL MOISTURE/SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND. HEAVIER RAIN OVER FOR
CKV/BNA BUT STILL MAY AFFECT CSV THROUGH 21Z OR SO. MOISTURE
EXTENDS WELL UPSTREAM AND THAT IS LIKELY TO KEEP AT LEAST MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA WELL INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT CSV. WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS EXPECTED TO KEEP VSBYS
FAVORABLE BUT FOG MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WIND WEAKENS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014/
UPDATE...
SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EAST TN/NORTH GA...WITH
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER. WIDESPREAD RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-STATE BUT THE BACK EDGE IS NOT FAR
WEST OF THE TN RIVER. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND PULLING DOWN
MUCH COOLER AIR WITH TEMPS UPSTREAM LARGELY MID 40S. DO
EXPECT RAIN TO PULL EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH RECOVERY IN TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK
LIKELY MOST OF THE DAY. WILL LOWER TEMPS AND REALIGN AFTERNOON
WX SLIGHTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
-SHRA WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING
BEFORE EXITING CKV/BNA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CSV BY EVENING.
LITTLE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF TS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT
CKV/BNA...BUT THESE CIGS MAY LINGER AT CSV. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW WL MOVE FROM EASTERN MS ACRS E TN TDY. INVERTED TROF OVER
THE MID STATE WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER
IN. THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM INVOLVE PCPN CVRG AND HOW
MUCH TEMPS WL RECOVER AS PCPN PULLS OUT LATER. FOR NOW LEANED PCPN
FCST TWRD THE LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THINGS THUS FAR. XPCT TO SEE RAIN INCRS IN CVRG QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BIT OF A COMMA HEAD
BEFORE PULLING OUT LATER THIS AFTN. RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
PLATEAU UNTIL MID MORNING AND WILL BE ENDING ALONG THE TN RIVER BY
MIDDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS ARND NASHVILLE AND POINTS EAST
WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ARND 8 AM JUST AHEAD OF THE BNDRY WITH A
PRETTY SHARP DROP THRU THE MORNING. WILL SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
AGAIN IN THE AFTN AS RAIN CVRG DECREASES.
SOME RAIN MAY LINGER IN THE FAR EAST ERLY THIS EVE OTHW XPCT A
QUICK CLEARING AS SYS PULLS AWAY. MAV TEMPERATURES LOOK RSNBL
GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES AND A PRETTY COOL START. WX THEN LOOKS
NICE AND SPRINGLIKE INTO MID-WEEK AS RIDGING DOMINATES. STILL WL
HV TO WATCH WEAK FRONT ON TUE FOR SOME CLDS AND A LITTLE LIGHT
PCPN BUT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH RIGHT NOW. HPC TEMPS WERE FOLLOWED
PRETTY CLOSE.
THE FAR EXTENDED STILL LOOKS ACTIVE BUT AS IS TYPICAL THE ALL
IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE MURKY. GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS SFC LOWS
MOVE TO OUR WEST.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1112 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
SFC LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EAST TN/NORTH GA...WITH
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE MS RIVER. WIDESPREAD RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-STATE BUT THE BACK EDGE IS NOT FAR
WEST OF THE TN RIVER. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND PULLING DOWN
MUCH COOLER AIR WITH TEMPS UPSTREAM LARGELY MID 40S. DO
EXPECT RAIN TO PULL EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH RECOVERY IN TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK
LIKELY MOST OF THE DAY. WILL LOWER TEMPS AND REALIGN AFTERNOON
WX SLIGHTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014/
UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
-SHRA WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING
BEFORE EXITING CKV/BNA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CSV BY EVENING.
LITTLE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF TS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT
CKV/BNA...BUT THESE CIGS MAY LINGER AT CSV. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW WL MOVE FROM EASTERN MS ACRS E TN TDY. INVERTED TROF OVER
THE MID STATE WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER
IN. THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM INVOLVE PCPN CVRG AND HOW
MUCH TEMPS WL RECOVER AS PCPN PULLS OUT LATER. FOR NOW LEANED PCPN
FCST TWRD THE LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THINGS THUS FAR. XPCT TO SEE RAIN INCRS IN CVRG QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BIT OF A COMMA HEAD
BEFORE PULLING OUT LATER THIS AFTN. RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
PLATEAU UNTIL MID MORNING AND WILL BE ENDING ALONG THE TN RIVER BY
MIDDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS ARND NASHVILLE AND POINTS EAST
WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ARND 8 AM JUST AHEAD OF THE BNDRY WITH A
PRETTY SHARP DROP THRU THE MORNING. WILL SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
AGAIN IN THE AFTN AS RAIN CVRG DECREASES.
SOME RAIN MAY LINGER IN THE FAR EAST ERLY THIS EVE OTHW XPCT A
QUICK CLEARING AS SYS PULLS AWAY. MAV TEMPERATURES LOOK RSNBL
GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES AND A PRETTY COOL START. WX THEN LOOKS
NICE AND SPRINGLIKE INTO MID-WEEK AS RIDGING DOMINATES. STILL WL
HV TO WATCH WEAK FRONT ON TUE FOR SOME CLDS AND A LITTLE LIGHT
PCPN BUT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH RIGHT NOW. HPC TEMPS WERE FOLLOWED
PRETTY CLOSE.
THE FAR EXTENDED STILL LOOKS ACTIVE BUT AS IS TYPICAL THE ALL
IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE MURKY. GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS SFC LOWS
MOVE TO OUR WEST.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
600 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
-SHRA WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING
BEFORE EXITING CKV/BNA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CSV BY EVENING.
LITTLE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF TS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT
CKV/BNA...BUT THESE CIGS MAY LINGER AT CSV. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW WL MOVE FROM EASTERN MS ACRS E TN TDY. INVERTED TROF OVER
THE MID STATE WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER
IN. THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM INVOLVE PCPN CVRG AND HOW
MUCH TEMPS WL RECOVER AS PCPN PULLS OUT LATER. FOR NOW LEANED PCPN
FCST TWRD THE LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THINGS THUS FAR. XPCT TO SEE RAIN INCRS IN CVRG QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BIT OF A COMMA HEAD
BEFORE PULLING OUT LATER THIS AFTN. RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
PLATEAU UNTIL MID MORNING AND WILL BE ENDING ALONG THE TN RIVER BY
MIDDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS ARND NASHVILLE AND POINTS EAST
WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ARND 8 AM JUST AHEAD OF THE BNDRY WITH A
PRETTY SHARP DROP THRU THE MORNING. WILL SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
AGAIN IN THE AFTN AS RAIN CVRG DECREASES.
SOME RAIN MAY LINGER IN THE FAR EAST ERLY THIS EVE OTHW XPCT A
QUICK CLEARING AS SYS PULLS AWAY. MAV TEMPERATURES LOOK RSNBL
GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES AND A PRETTY COOL START. WX THEN LOOKS
NICE AND SPRINGLIKE INTO MID-WEEK AS RIDGING DOMINATES. STILL WL
HV TO WATCH WEAK FRONT ON TUE FOR SOME CLDS AND A LITTLE LIGHT
PCPN BUT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH RIGHT NOW. HPC TEMPS WERE FOLLOWED
PRETTY CLOSE.
THE FAR EXTENDED STILL LOOKS ACTIVE BUT AS IS TYPICAL THE ALL
IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE MURKY. GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS SFC LOWS
MOVE TO OUR WEST.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
335 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW WL MOVE FROM EASTERN MS ACRS E TN TDY. INVERTED TROF OVER
THE MID STATE WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER
IN. THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM INVOLVE PCPN CVRG AND HOW
MUCH TEMPS WL RECOVER AS PCPN PULLS OUT LATER. FOR NOW LEANED PCPN
FCST TWRD THE LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THINGS THUS FAR. XPCT TO SEE RAIN INCRS IN CVRG QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BIT OF A COMMA HEAD
BEFORE PULLING OUT LATER THIS AFTN. RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
PLATEAU UNTIL MID MORNING AND WILL BE ENDING ALONG THE TN RIVER BY
MIDDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS ARND NASHVILLE AND POINTS EAST
WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ARND 8 AM JUST AHEAD OF THE BNDRY WITH A
PRETTY SHARP DROP THRU THE MORNING. WILL SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
AGAIN IN THE AFTN AS RAIN CVRG DECREASES.
SOME RAIN MAY LINGER IN THE FAR EAST ERLY THIS EVE OTHW XPCT A
QUICK CLEARING AS SYS PULLS AWAY. MAV TEMPERATURES LOOK RSNBL
GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES AND A PRETTY COOL START. WX THEN LOOKS
NICE AND SPRINGLIKE INTO MID-WEEK AS RIDGING DOMINATES. STILL WL
HV TO WATCH WEAK FRONT ON TUE FOR SOME CLDS AND A LITTLE LIGHT
PCPN BUT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH RIGHT NOW. HPC TEMPS WERE FOLLOWED
PRETTY CLOSE.
THE FAR EXTENDED STILL LOOKS ACTIVE BUT AS IS TYPICAL THE ALL
IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE MURKY. GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS SFC LOWS
MOVE TO OUR WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 57 34 61 38 / 90 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 54 31 59 38 / 90 0 0 05
CROSSVILLE 56 35 54 33 / 90 20 0 05
COLUMBIA 59 35 63 38 / 90 0 0 05
LAWRENCEBURG 60 35 63 36 / 90 0 0 05
WAVERLY 57 33 61 39 / 90 0 0 05
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JOHNSTONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
425 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE PASSING WEST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING. THE
SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND
VERY STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECT A VERY ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
CURRENTLY KEEPING AN EYE ON A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE FLOWING INTO OUR REGION HAS MAINTAINED SHOWERY
AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...AND
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY AROUND
6 PM...TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. THE FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT EAST...EXITING OUR AREA TO THE EAST RIGHT AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE FOGGY SHOWERY CONDITIONS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB OF
LIMITING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT THE THREAT OF ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS STRICTLY LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS.
AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA...WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE PASSAGE
OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FIRST
CONCERN WILL BE THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG DEFORMATION
ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGES. BELIEVE WE
WILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE
SUCH THAT WE CAN EXPECT 4 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET IN
GREENBRIER...SUMMERS AND MERCER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...AND 1 TO 4 INCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF OUR
REMAINING MOUNTAIN COUNTIES UP TO THE BLUE RIDGE. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS AWAY
FROM OUR AREA.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. A QUICK
SURGE IN WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SPEEDS TO
RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND REACH
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE PROGGED 85H JET TOPS 50 KTS AND MUCH
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN. FORECAST INVERSION REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
BUT GIVEN LATE NIGHT TIMING WOULD FAVOR GOING ON THE STRONG SIDE
OF GUIDANCE DESPITE SOME OFFSET IN MIXING VIA CLOUDS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXING ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BECOMES
DEEPEST SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A VERY
IMPRESSIVE JET COUPLET ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS AND SUBSIDENCE MAXES
OVERHEAD. GRADIENT LOOKS QUITE TIGHT AND IF CLOUDS CLEAR QUICKER
THEN SPEEDS MAY BE STRONGER...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS PERHAPS GRAVITY WAVES SLIDE OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
SINCE THE CORE OF THE STRONGER WINDS LIKELY TO IMPACT AREAS FROM
THE ROANOKE VALLEY INTO THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
WHERE DAMAGING WINDS MORE LIKELY...HAVE UPGRADED PARTS OF THE
GOING ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING AND INCLUDED THE VA
HIGHLANDS FOR MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION SPEEDS. INCLUDED AN ADVISORY
ELSW OVER THE EARLIER WATCH AREA AS WELL AS ADDING HENRY...MERCER
AND MONROE COUNTIES FOR NOW GIVEN POTENTIAL TREE DAMAGE PER WET
SOILS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISHING AND SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER WITH
THIS LOW BASICALLY CUTOFF...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL BE
SLOW TO WEAKEN WITH STRONG WINDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING PROVIDING FOR ONLY A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND BY EARLY
MONDAY. THINK RESIDUAL DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT SO GOING WITH CLEARING SKIES WITHOUT POP AND CLOSER TO
THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS TEMPS PER MIXING/WARMING ALOFT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER DRAMATIC
TURNAROUND IN TEMPS UNDER SUNSHINE AS 85H VALUES GO FROM BELOW 0C
SUNDAY EVENING TO AS WARM AS +11C BY LATE MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD SEND HIGHS ZOOMING BACK INTO THE 60S
WEST AND AROUND 70 EAST UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS.
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITH LARGE
VALLEY/ELEVATION TEMP RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN EVEN MILDER TUESDAY
WITH MORE OF A WEST TO SW TRAJECTORY IN PLACE. CLOUDS MAY INCREASE
FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BUT WITH ANY
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S EAST AND CLOSE TO 70 WEST OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT SATURDAY...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST AND MEAN
TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW STATES. WILL SEE A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH AND HEIGHTS DIP A BIT. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY INITIALLY DRY
WITH ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW WHICH SHOULD DO LITTLE TO
DETER VERY WARM TEMPS FOR MIDWEEK. FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS TOWARD
THE UPPER MIDWEST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT MAY TEND TO SPILL
DOWN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE WEST SO BUMPED UP POPS STARTING
THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH MOISTURE
AROUND AND WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING BY. STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH THE
WAVE TO THE WEST WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY PER THE FASTER EC. EXPECT PRE-
FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE SOUTH AND SW SO RUNNING
WITH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO GET FAR ENOUGH SE TO ALLOW DRYING ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME
EARLY CLOUDS/-SHRA MAINLY NW AND CLEARING ELSW PENDING LATER RUNS.
GOOD SOUTH TO SW FLOW SHOULD FINALLY BRING TEMPS UP TO SPRING LEVELS
AND ALLOW THEM TO STAY THERE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 70S EXCEPT COOLING TO
60S SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND PERHAPS
STAYING ABOVE 50 OUT EAST DURING MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MOST TAF SITES ARE IN THE SOUP AHEAD OF LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AS LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA IT WILL SWING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH...WHICH WILL SWEEP OUT THE FOG BUT BE FOLLOWED
BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...AND VERY STRONG WINDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ONE BIG CHALLENGE IS WHAT HAPPENS TO CIGS/VSBYS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. WILL BASE THE EARLY CIGS/VSBYS ON TRENDS SHOWN
IN HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODEL RUN. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT
CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF CFROPA. BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST PCPN
CAN BE EXPECTED JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES. WILL
TIME CFROPA AT KBLF/KLWB 23Z...KBKB 00Z...KROA 01Z...AND KLYH/KDAN
02Z. ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT MAY CREATE SOME
SIGNIFICANT LOCAL GUSTS BUT WILL NOT INDICATE THIS IN THE TAFS
SINCE IT WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DO SO WITH ANY DEGREE OF
ACCURACY.
COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT A
TYPICAL NW FLOW SCENARIO WITH KBLF/KLWB SEEING BETTER CHANCES FOR
-SHSN...KBCB ON THE EDGE...AND NOTHING FOR THE PIEDMONT DOWNSLOPE
AREAS WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. THE BUILDING WINDS MAY
TRANSLATE -SHSN A BIT FURTHER WEST BUT THE OVERALL FLAVOR WILL
REMAIN THE SAME. EXPECT HIGHEST WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AS INSOLATION COMBINES WITH CAA TO MAXIMIZE MIXING.
LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR VAZ009-012>020-022-032-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>012-015-018>020.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VAZ007-010-011-023-024-034-035-043.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NCZ003-019.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
WVZ042-044.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR WVZ042-043-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1054 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM SO FAR
TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AT STURGEON BAY AND
MANITOWOC TO THE MIDDLE 50S AT WISCONSIN RAPIDS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. NO SIGNS OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PLAINS JUST YET DESPITE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE TEMPS TONIGHT AND CHANCES OF PRECIP ON MONDAY.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS...RETURN FLOW AND 850MB THETAE
ADVECTION WILL BE RAMPING UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BUT THE AIR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SO DRY THAT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HOWEVER. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG. TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER NE WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.
MONDAY...A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THINK PRECIP CHANCES WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT UNSURE HOW PRECIP WILL EVOLVE. EVEN
THOUGH MODELS POINT TOWARDS BETTER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...THINK INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT AND THE
ARRIVAL OF A 700MB THETAE AXIS/EDGE OF DRY SLOT COULD LEAD TO A
BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODIFIED POPS A
BIT TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO...BUT STILL KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE RANGE DUE TO CONCERNS OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
WARM FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TEMPS MAY
NOT BE THAT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY TUESDAY WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING AT THE
SURFACE. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. THEN A FLAT UPPER RIDGE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. SO DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC SO WE WON/T HAVE TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. IT DOES LOOK INTERESTING WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL DELIVER LOW
LEVEL COLD DRY AIR SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW
FREEZING BUT ABOVE FREEZING AIR AROUND 850MB COULD MAKE FOR A MIXTURE
OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. A LACK OF
DEEP SATURATION WILL PREVENT ANY PCPN FROM FORMING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN NC/C WI AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
MARGINAL LLWS IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THE
GREATEST THREAT SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WHEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS JUST OFF THE SFC.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT AS BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE DEEP SNOW COVER OVER NORTHERN WI
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIGHT NOW...ONLY PLANNING TO MENTION
LIGHT FOG IN THE TAFS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
WARMER TEMPERATURES...MILDER WEATHER WILL PRODUCE MELTING SNOW AND
ICE AND RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF LOCAL FLOODING EARLY
THIS WEEK. THE SNOW IS VERY DEEP IN THE NORTH AND SHOULD BE ABLE
TO ABSORB RAINFALL WITHOUT FULLY MELTING. HOWEVER...PLACES WITH
JUST A FEW INCHES LEFT ON THE GROUND MAY HAVE MOST OF THE SNOW
MELT...WHICH MAY CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF ICE JAMS AS RIVER ICE BREAKS UP. A HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK
IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
637 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM SO FAR
TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AT STURGEON BAY AND
MANITOWOC TO THE MIDDLE 50S AT WISCONSIN RAPIDS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. NO SIGNS OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
PLAINS JUST YET DESPITE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE TEMPS TONIGHT AND CHANCES OF PRECIP ON MONDAY.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS...RETURN FLOW AND 850MB THETAE
ADVECTION WILL BE RAMPING UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BUT THE AIR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SO DRY THAT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HOWEVER. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FOG. TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER NE WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.
MONDAY...A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THINK PRECIP CHANCES WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT UNSURE HOW PRECIP WILL EVOLVE. EVEN
THOUGH MODELS POINT TOWARDS BETTER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...THINK INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT AND THE
ARRIVAL OF A 700MB THETAE AXIS/EDGE OF DRY SLOT COULD LEAD TO A
BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODIFIED POPS A
BIT TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO...BUT STILL KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE
CHANCE RANGE DUE TO CONCERNS OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
WARM FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TEMPS MAY
NOT BE THAT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY TUESDAY WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING AT THE
SURFACE. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. THEN A FLAT UPPER RIDGE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. SO DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC SO WE WON/T HAVE TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. IT DOES LOOK INTERESTING WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL DELIVER LOW
LEVEL COLD DRY AIR SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW
FREEZING BUT ABOVE FREEZING AIR AROUND 850MB COULD MAKE FOR A MIXTURE
OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE LOW...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. A LACK OF DEEP SATURATION
WILL PREVENT ANY PCPN FROM FORMING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE LLWS IN THE TAFS...AS IT
APPEARS VERY MARGINAL THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. DECIDED TO FOCUS ON
A PERIOD OF BETTER LLWS POTENTIAL DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ON MONDAY...AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS JUST OFF THE
SFC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
WARMER TEMPERATURES...MILDER WEATHER WILL PRODUCE MELTING SNOW AND
ICE AND RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF LOCAL FLOODING EARLY
THIS WEEK. THE SNOW IS VERY DEEP IN THE NORTH AND SHOULD BE ABLE
TO ABSORB RAINFALL WITHOUT FULLY MELTING. HOWEVER...PLACES WITH
JUST A FEW INCHES LEFT ON THE GROUND MAY HAVE MOST OF THE SNOW
MELT...WHICH MAY CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF ICE JAMS AS RIVER ICE BREAKS UP. A HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK
IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
553 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
STATE OF TEXAS. EARLIER RIBBON OF STRATO-CU OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DISSIPATED AROUND MIDDAY LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...THE JET IS PUSHING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS. BUT OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST UNTIL NORTHWEST
MONTANA IN THE VICINITY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WITH THAT SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE CLOUDS AND TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHILE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE
STATE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SEND MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY GRAZE NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY TEMP KEEPS FROM PLUMMETING
OVER THE DEEP SNOW PACK OF N-C WISCONSIN. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
20...EXCEPT FOR A FEW TEENS OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN.
SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD
FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO FAR NW
WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BE ADVECTING WARMER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
WARMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE
AND BAY SHORE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH IN A COLD MARINE LAYER.
SO WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE WARM SPOTS...TO THE
UPPER 30S ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL PROVIDE FILTERED SUNSHINE AT TIMES...BUT
DO NOT THINK THEY WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN FROM THE RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IS MELTING SNOW
AND RIVER ICE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL FLOODING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER
AND FLATTER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM AND WE WOULD BE IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF IT AND RECEIVE SOME SNOW WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER AND WE WOULD HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES
DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. THEN A LITTLE COLDER AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
CLEAR SKIES HAVE PREVAILED OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
THE QUIET VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TONIGHT. MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN STICK
AROUND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AFTER LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
WARMER TEMPERATURES...MELTING SNOW AND RAIN WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF LOCAL FLOODING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SNOW
IS VERY DEEP IN THE NORTH AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE
RAINFALL WITHOUT FULLY MELTING BUT PLACES WITH JUST A FEW INCHES
LEFT MAY HAVE MOST OF IT MELT AND RUN OFF THE FROZEN GROUND INTO
RIVERS AND STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF ICE JAMS AS RIVER
ICE BREAKS UP. WE HAVE A HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK IN EFFECT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......WOLF
HYDROLOGY......RDM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
STATE OF TEXAS. EARLIER RIBBON OF STRATO-CU OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DISSIPATED AROUND MIDDAY LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...THE JET IS PUSHING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS. BUT OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST UNTIL NORTHWEST
MONTANA IN THE VICINITY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WITH THAT SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE CLOUDS AND TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHILE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE
STATE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SEND MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY GRAZE NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY TEMP KEEPS FROM PLUMMETING
OVER THE DEEP SNOW PACK OF N-C WISCONSIN. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
20...EXCEPT FOR A FEW TEENS OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN.
SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD
FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO FAR NW
WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BE ADVECTING WARMER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
WARMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE
AND BAY SHORE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH IN A COLD MARINE LAYER.
SO WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE WARM SPOTS...TO THE
UPPER 30S ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL PROVIDE FILTERED SUNSHINE AT TIMES...BUT
DO NOT THINK THEY WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN FROM THE RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IS MELTING SNOW
AND RIVER ICE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL FLOODING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER
AND FLATTER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM AND WE WOULD BE IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF IT AND RECEIVE SOME SNOW WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND STRONGER AND WE WOULD HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES
DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. THEN A LITTLE COLDER AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
SCT TO BKN MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN HAVE TURNED VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND HAVE NEARLY
DISSIPATED. THEREFORE...EXPECT FEW CLOUD COVERAGE AT TAF ISSUANCE
WHICH SHOULD BECOME SKC LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
WARMER TEMPERATURES...MELTING SNOW AND RAIN WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF LOCAL FLOODING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SNOW
IS VERY DEEP IN THE NORTH AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE
RAINFALL WITHOUT FULLY MELTING BUT PLACES WITH JUST A FEW INCHES
LEFT MAY HAVE MOST OF IT MELT AND RUN OFF THE FROZEN GROUND INTO
RIVERS AND STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF ICE JAMS AS RIVER
ICE BREAKS UP. WE HAVE A HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK IN EFFECT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1242 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A VERY DEEP TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND TROUGHING FROM MINNESOTA
SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN
UNEVENTFUL FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ONLY SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. DRY AIR SITUATED BETWEEN 900-700MB ON THE 00Z GRB...MPX AND
DVN SOUNDINGS KEPT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION FROM THESE CLOUDS
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...AT AND BELOW 900MB...
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI. THIS STRATUS IS A RESULT OF EASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN COMBINING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA. TO THE NORTHWEST...CLEARING ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA.
AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST STILL RELATIVELY COOL WITH 00Z RAOBS
SHOWING 925MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -5C FROM THE FORECAST AREA TO BIS.
HOWEVER...LBF AND UNR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WERE MUCH
WARMER AT +11 AND +15C RESPECTIVELY.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE EAST PACIFIC
TROUGH...NEAR 35 NORTH / 140 WEST...MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. FOR
COMPARISON...THE FORECAST AREA GOES FROM UNDER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS AT 12Z SATURDAY TO A RIDGE AXIS AT 12Z SUNDAY. 3 MAIN
IMPACTS FROM THIS SWITCH:
1. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING WILL
HELP CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS BY 18Z...LEADING TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS TONIGHT.
2. AFTER MOSTLY A LIGHT WIND FLOW TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE GREATLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
925-850MB. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THEY ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 40-50 KT.
3. 925-850MB TEMPS FOLLOW THE INCREASE IN WINDS. FOR EXAMPLE...
925MB TEMPS AFTER STARTING OFF BETWEEN -2 TO -5C AT 12Z THIS MORNING
CLIMB TO 0 TO +3C AT 00Z SUNDAY...THEN TO 2 TO +5C AT 12Z SUNDAY.
SUNSHINE SHOULD EASILY BOOST HIGHS INTO THE 40S TODAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW VALLEY AREAS APPROACHING 50. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
AND CAUSES THEM TO STABILIZE. READINGS SHOULD RISE LATE TONIGHT AS
THE WARMER AIR FLOWS IN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MANY WEATHER CONCERNS TO HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO RESIDE MUCH OF THE TIME IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE COMING INTO CALIFORNIA TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK TO LIFT
INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OR SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z TUESDAY...PUSHING
WARM...DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF IT. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO 9-13C BY 00Z
MONDAY...COOLEST OVER TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES. THESE READINGS COMBINED
WITH SUN THROUGH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF I-94...WITH 50S TO
THE NORTH. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WIND SHOULD ONLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MAYBE SOME 30S IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
THEN ON MONDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR HIGHLIGHTED BY 925MB TEMPS OF 9-13C...SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THIS OCCURS
DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH.
2. PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SIGNAL STILL EXISTS FOR A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 300K
SURFACES AND ABOVE INCREASES. THE BEST MOISTURE EXISTS NORTH OF I-
90...THUS HIGHEST CHANCES OF 50-70 ARE SITUATED THERE. THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT CROSSING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THIS BAND INCLUDE MODELS
MAY BE OVERDOING THE MOISTURE RETURN AND NOT MIXING DEWPOINTS OUT
ENOUGH...AND THE TIME OF DAY IS BEING PUSHED TO OUTSIDE OF PEAK
HEATING. SHOULD STORMS FIRE...THERE REMAINS AMPLE SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. LASTLY...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE
DEFORMATION BAND ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...AND CLIP THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR RUSHING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE DURING
THIS CHANGEOVER AS COLD AIR UNDERCUTS WARMER AIR ALOFT. LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...THOUGH. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL TO LOSE
ICE IN THE CLOUDS DUE TO A DRY SLOT...BUT THE LOSS OF ICE OCCURS
EITHER WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING TO RESULT IN RAIN OR
WHERE NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
3. WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS PROG 925MB WINDS OF
30-40 KT SOUTH OF I-90 DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF MORE SUN OCCURS THAN
EXPECTED...THESE COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND SEE
BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS APPROACH ADVISORY. INCREASED WINDS
AND GUSTS AS A RESULT. ALSO...AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 925MB WINDS OF 30-40 KT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST USHERS IN COLD AIR. WITH SOME ISALLOBARIC
AID...COULD SEE GUSTS HERE TOO APPROACH ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF TIME.
4. WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE AT ODDS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE EJECTION OF TROUGHING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY TOWARDS THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE A COLDER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING
THE AREA...LIKELY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN MN INTO UPPER MI. IN
ADDITION...AS THE TROUGH EJECTS...ISENTROPIC LIFT OF WARMER...GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SETS UP CONCERN FOR THE WINTRY MIX. FOR NOW HAVE
FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHICH SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF I-90. ALSO KEPT TYPES AS
RAIN/SNOW BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURES...BUT THERE IS DEFINITELY
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES. 29.00Z ECMWF
EVEN PRODUCES AT LEAST ADVISORY WORTHY SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
VFR CONDITONS EXPECTED BUT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE TAF
SITES...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LOWEST 2KFT RAPIDLY. HAVE
INCLUDED LLWS FOR KRST FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MAIN FOCUS FOR RIVER ISSUES FROM THE RECENT RAIN IS ON THE KICKAPOO
RIVER. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG IT ARE EITHER IN OR EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE AS RUNOFF CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM.
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAPID WARM UP WILL CAUSE THE
SNOW PACK NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 TO MELT RAPIDLY. IN
ADDITION WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAINFALL ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN RISES ALONG THE BLACK...BUFFALO...AND TREMPEALEAU
RIVERS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME FLOODING IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
709 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A VERY DEEP TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND TROUGHING FROM MINNESOTA
SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN
UNEVENTFUL FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ONLY SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. DRY AIR SITUATED BETWEEN 900-700MB ON THE 00Z GRB...MPX AND
DVN SOUNDINGS KEPT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION FROM THESE CLOUDS
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...AT AND BELOW 900MB...
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI. THIS STRATUS IS A RESULT OF EASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN COMBINING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA. TO THE NORTHWEST...CLEARING ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA.
AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST STILL RELATIVELY COOL WITH 00Z RAOBS
SHOWING 925MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -5C FROM THE FORECAST AREA TO BIS.
HOWEVER...LBF AND UNR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WERE MUCH
WARMER AT +11 AND +15C RESPECTIVELY.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE EAST PACIFIC
TROUGH...NEAR 35 NORTH / 140 WEST...MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. FOR
COMPARISON...THE FORECAST AREA GOES FROM UNDER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS AT 12Z SATURDAY TO A RIDGE AXIS AT 12Z SUNDAY. 3 MAIN
IMPACTS FROM THIS SWITCH:
1. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING WILL
HELP CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS BY 18Z...LEADING TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS TONIGHT.
2. AFTER MOSTLY A LIGHT WIND FLOW TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE GREATLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
925-850MB. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THEY ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 40-50 KT.
3. 925-850MB TEMPS FOLLOW THE INCREASE IN WINDS. FOR EXAMPLE...
925MB TEMPS AFTER STARTING OFF BETWEEN -2 TO -5C AT 12Z THIS MORNING
CLIMB TO 0 TO +3C AT 00Z SUNDAY...THEN TO 2 TO +5C AT 12Z SUNDAY.
SUNSHINE SHOULD EASILY BOOST HIGHS INTO THE 40S TODAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW VALLEY AREAS APPROACHING 50. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
AND CAUSES THEM TO STABILIZE. READINGS SHOULD RISE LATE TONIGHT AS
THE WARMER AIR FLOWS IN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MANY WEATHER CONCERNS TO HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO RESIDE MUCH OF THE TIME IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE COMING INTO CALIFORNIA TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK TO LIFT
INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OR SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z TUESDAY...PUSHING
WARM...DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF IT. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO 9-13C BY 00Z
MONDAY...COOLEST OVER TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES. THESE READINGS COMBINED
WITH SUN THROUGH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF I-94...WITH 50S TO
THE NORTH. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WIND SHOULD ONLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MAYBE SOME 30S IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
THEN ON MONDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR HIGHLIGHTED BY 925MB TEMPS OF 9-13C...SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THIS OCCURS
DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH.
2. PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SIGNAL STILL EXISTS FOR A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 300K
SURFACES AND ABOVE INCREASES. THE BEST MOISTURE EXISTS NORTH OF I-
90...THUS HIGHEST CHANCES OF 50-70 ARE SITUATED THERE. THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT CROSSING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THIS BAND INCLUDE MODELS
MAY BE OVERDOING THE MOISTURE RETURN AND NOT MIXING DEWPOINTS OUT
ENOUGH...AND THE TIME OF DAY IS BEING PUSHED TO OUTSIDE OF PEAK
HEATING. SHOULD STORMS FIRE...THERE REMAINS AMPLE SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. LASTLY...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE
DEFORMATION BAND ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...AND CLIP THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR RUSHING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE DURING
THIS CHANGEOVER AS COLD AIR UNDERCUTS WARMER AIR ALOFT. LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...THOUGH. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL TO LOSE
ICE IN THE CLOUDS DUE TO A DRY SLOT...BUT THE LOSS OF ICE OCCURS
EITHER WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING TO RESULT IN RAIN OR
WHERE NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
3. WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS PROG 925MB WINDS OF
30-40 KT SOUTH OF I-90 DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF MORE SUN OCCURS THAN
EXPECTED...THESE COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND SEE
BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS APPROACH ADVISORY. INCREASED WINDS
AND GUSTS AS A RESULT. ALSO...AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 925MB WINDS OF 30-40 KT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST USHERS IN COLD AIR. WITH SOME ISALLOBARIC
AID...COULD SEE GUSTS HERE TOO APPROACH ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF TIME.
4. WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE AT ODDS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE EJECTION OF TROUGHING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY TOWARDS THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE A COLDER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING
THE AREA...LIKELY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN MN INTO UPPER MI. IN
ADDITION...AS THE TROUGH EJECTS...ISENTROPIC LIFT OF WARMER...GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SETS UP CONCERN FOR THE WINTRY MIX. FOR NOW HAVE
FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHICH SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF I-90. ALSO KEPT TYPES AS
RAIN/SNOW BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURES...BUT THERE IS DEFINITELY
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES. 29.00Z ECMWF
EVEN PRODUCES AT LEAST ADVISORY WORTHY SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT CREATING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 17 KTS AT KRST AND INTO THE
10 TO 12 KT RANGE AT LSE. ALSO...WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KTS IN
THE 1500 TO 2000 FT LAYER LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS MAINLY AFTER 10Z. HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN
THE KRST TAF STARTING AT 09Z. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH AT KLSE ON
THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE BEING STRONG ENOUGH LLWS PRIOR TO 12Z
SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MAIN FOCUS FOR RIVER ISSUES FROM THE RECENT RAIN IS ON THE KICKAPOO
RIVER. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG IT ARE EITHER IN OR EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE AS RUNOFF CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM.
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAPID WARM UP WILL CAUSE THE
SNOW PACK NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 TO MELT RAPIDLY. IN
ADDITION WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAINFALL ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN RISES ALONG THE BLACK...BUFFALO...AND TREMPEALEAU
RIVERS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME FLOODING IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
328 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A VERY DEEP TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND TROUGHING FROM MINNESOTA
SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN
UNEVENTFUL FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ONLY SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. DRY AIR SITUATED BETWEEN 900-700MB ON THE 00Z GRB...MPX AND
DVN SOUNDINGS KEPT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION FROM THESE CLOUDS
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...AT AND BELOW 900MB...
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI. THIS STRATUS IS A RESULT OF EASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN COMBINING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA. TO THE NORTHWEST...CLEARING ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA.
AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST STILL RELATIVELY COOL WITH 00Z RAOBS
SHOWING 925MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -5C FROM THE FORECAST AREA TO BIS.
HOWEVER...LBF AND UNR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WERE MUCH
WARMER AT +11 AND +15C RESPECTIVELY.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE EAST PACIFIC
TROUGH...NEAR 35 NORTH / 140 WEST...MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. FOR
COMPARISON...THE FORECAST AREA GOES FROM UNDER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS AT 12Z SATURDAY TO A RIDGE AXIS AT 12Z SUNDAY. 3 MAIN
IMPACTS FROM THIS SWITCH:
1. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING WILL
HELP CLEAR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS BY 18Z...LEADING TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS TONIGHT.
2. AFTER MOSTLY A LIGHT WIND FLOW TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE GREATLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM
925-850MB. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THEY ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 40-50 KT.
3. 925-850MB TEMPS FOLLOW THE INCREASE IN WINDS. FOR EXAMPLE...
925MB TEMPS AFTER STARTING OFF BETWEEN -2 TO -5C AT 12Z THIS MORNING
CLIMB TO 0 TO +3C AT 00Z SUNDAY...THEN TO 2 TO +5C AT 12Z SUNDAY.
SUNSHINE SHOULD EASILY BOOST HIGHS INTO THE 40S TODAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW VALLEY AREAS APPROACHING 50. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
AND CAUSES THEM TO STABILIZE. READINGS SHOULD RISE LATE TONIGHT AS
THE WARMER AIR FLOWS IN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MANY WEATHER CONCERNS TO HIGHLIGHT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO RESIDE MUCH OF THE TIME IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE COMING INTO CALIFORNIA TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK TO LIFT
INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OR SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z TUESDAY...PUSHING
WARM...DOWNSLOPED AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF IT. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO 9-13C BY 00Z
MONDAY...COOLEST OVER TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES. THESE READINGS COMBINED
WITH SUN THROUGH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF I-94...WITH 50S TO
THE NORTH. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WIND SHOULD ONLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MAYBE SOME 30S IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
THEN ON MONDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR HIGHLIGHTED BY 925MB TEMPS OF 9-13C...SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THIS OCCURS
DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH.
2. PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SIGNAL STILL EXISTS FOR A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 300K
SURFACES AND ABOVE INCREASES. THE BEST MOISTURE EXISTS NORTH OF I-
90...THUS HIGHEST CHANCES OF 50-70 ARE SITUATED THERE. THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT CROSSING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF CONCERNS FOR THIS BAND INCLUDE MODELS
MAY BE OVERDOING THE MOISTURE RETURN AND NOT MIXING DEWPOINTS OUT
ENOUGH...AND THE TIME OF DAY IS BEING PUSHED TO OUTSIDE OF PEAK
HEATING. SHOULD STORMS FIRE...THERE REMAINS AMPLE SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. LASTLY...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE
DEFORMATION BAND ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...AND CLIP THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR RUSHING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE DURING
THIS CHANGEOVER AS COLD AIR UNDERCUTS WARMER AIR ALOFT. LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...THOUGH. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL TO LOSE
ICE IN THE CLOUDS DUE TO A DRY SLOT...BUT THE LOSS OF ICE OCCURS
EITHER WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING TO RESULT IN RAIN OR
WHERE NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
3. WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS PROG 925MB WINDS OF
30-40 KT SOUTH OF I-90 DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF MORE SUN OCCURS THAN
EXPECTED...THESE COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND SEE
BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS APPROACH ADVISORY. INCREASED WINDS
AND GUSTS AS A RESULT. ALSO...AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 925MB WINDS OF 30-40 KT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST USHERS IN COLD AIR. WITH SOME ISALLOBARIC
AID...COULD SEE GUSTS HERE TOO APPROACH ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF TIME.
4. WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE AT ODDS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE EJECTION OF TROUGHING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY TOWARDS THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE A COLDER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING
THE AREA...LIKELY SITUATED FROM NORTHERN MN INTO UPPER MI. IN
ADDITION...AS THE TROUGH EJECTS...ISENTROPIC LIFT OF WARMER...GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SETS UP CONCERN FOR THE WINTRY MIX. FOR NOW HAVE
FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHICH SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF I-90. ALSO KEPT TYPES AS
RAIN/SNOW BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURES...BUT THERE IS DEFINITELY
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES. 29.00Z ECMWF
EVEN PRODUCES AT LEAST ADVISORY WORTHY SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF VFR/MID CLOUDS APPROACHING SOUTHEAST MN. STILL
THINKING MID CLOUD WILL SCATTER OUT AT KRST BY 06Z AND AT KLSE BY
08Z. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO MVFR STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THAT WILL
BE ADVECTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE KLSE TAF SITE AROUND THE SAME
TIME THE MID CLOUDS SCATTERS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP
JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RAP/NAM MODELS CONTINUE TO
STOP THIS STRATUS JUST SHY OF THE KLSE TAF SITE...KEEP IT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LA CROSSE COUNTY/WESTERN MONROE COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO
HONOR THIS SIGNAL AND CARRY A SCT025 SKY CONDITION AT KLSE AFTER
08Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MVFR CLOUD CLOSELY. EXPECTING
STRATUS TO ERODE TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. SKC/VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...TURNING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PLAN ON SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN MN WITH WINDS
PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MAIN FOCUS FOR RIVER ISSUES FROM THE RECENT RAIN IS ON THE KICKAPOO
RIVER. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG IT ARE EITHER IN OR EXPECTED TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE AS RUNOFF CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM.
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAPID WARM UP WILL CAUSE THE
SNOW PACK NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 TO MELT RAPIDLY. IN
ADDITION WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAINFALL ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY RUNOFF INTO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN RISES ALONG THE BLACK...BUFFALO...AND TREMPEALEAU
RIVERS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME FLOODING IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1131 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2014
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WIND SPEEDS IN THE ARLINGTON AREA
TODAY. WINDS HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH AS 57 MPH AT THE ARLINGTON WY DOT
SITE WITH OTHER SITES GUSTING 50 TO 55 MPH. MODELS DO SHOWING
WINDS ALOFT INCREASING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT AS STRONG
OF SUBSIDENCE. AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AS
WINDS SHOULD BE MARGINAL FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING AND RELATIVELY
LOCALIZED.
UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS AS THE STANDING WAVE CLOUDS IS IN PLACE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE
COULD WILL THIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD NOT SEE A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT IT WILL BE A SLOWER RISE IN TEMPERATURES
AND COULD END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST WHERE
THE WAVE CLOUD HANGS ON THE LONGEST. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
MAIN WEATHER STORIES THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND THE WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HIGHS THIS AFTN ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST GRIDS FOR THIS AFTN WAS TO DECREASE
DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY STRETCHING FROM LARAMIE COUNTY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-TO-MID LEVELS
WILL COMBINE WITH EXCELLENT SOLAR INSULATION TO PRODUCE DEEP LLVL
MIXING THIS AFTN AND IT IS THESE CONDITIONS THAT MOS OFTEN GROSSLY
UNDERESTIMATES AFTN DEW POINTS. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND RUC GUIDANCE AND THIS RESULTS IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE OVER THE PANHANDLE. EXCELLENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO
25-30 KT AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THUS...DECIDED TO ISSUE A
RFW FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE.
THE NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN IS WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE GFS SHOWS 700MB WINDS OF 40-45 KT FROM 18-00Z AND THE 700MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS AROUND 45 METERS. CONTEMPLATED PUTTING THE
ARLINGTON AREA IN A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE AFTN...HOWEVER WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THE LLVL GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT A BIT STRONGER. WILL
LIKELY SEE GUSTS AROUND 45 KT IN THE ARLINGTON AREA WITH THE
FAVORABLE GAP WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ARLINGTON...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40
KT DURING PEAK MIXING. THE LLVL GRADIENT COMES DOWN BY THIS
EVENING AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WILL SEE
WINDS DECREASE.
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTN TSTMS IN THE FCST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE
LIFTED INDICES OF 0C TO -1C. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A FROPA AFTER 06Z MON. BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT IS LARGELY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER MAY HAVE
TO WATCH THE NORTHEAST ZONES FOR ADVISORY AMOUNTS. THIS AREA WILL
BE CLOSEST TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEVELOPING TROWAL/FRONTOGENESIS
FEATURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH IN FUTURE MODEL
RUNS.
.LONG TERM...(EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND INTO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS...THERE IS STILL
CONCERN OVER A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH PLAINS.
FOR TUESDAY...ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAYS
SYSTEM ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RETREATING EASTWARD AS A
WARM FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME
EASTERN ZONES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL OVERRUNNING EVENT
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY MELT AND/OR
CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 50S.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS WESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
THE PLACEMENT...MOVEMENT...AND POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF A STRONG
WINTER STORM. ALL MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
AND ATTEMPTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE ECMWF SHOWS A RATHER
DISORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM...WITH THE MAIN LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST
AND THEN DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND THEN INITIATES STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS IN KANSAS/MISSOURI LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
INDICATES SPLIT FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR I80 DUE TO THE SOUTHERN WAVE...AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING DUE TO THE MAIN LOW WITH LITTLE IN BETWEEN.
THE GEM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING A COLORADO LOW SLOWLY
EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SCENARIO
RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE
I80 CORRIDOR GETTING CLIPPED BY LIGHT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...THE 06Z
GFS IS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE GEM. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS WERE IN BETWEEN THE GEM AND GFS LAST NIGHT...SO KEPT POP
BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH POP NEAR
70 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CHANGES...BUT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
APPEARS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. LOWERED TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2014
CONSIDERABLE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PRODUCE VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE STRONGER GUSTS /30-40 KT/ EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 414 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2014
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PANHANDLE SINCE
FUELS ARE CONDUCIVE TO FIRE GROWTH IN THAT REGION. WHILE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE
LESS SO ONLY AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ110.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
914 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2014
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WIND SPEEDS IN THE ARLINGTON AREA
TODAY. WINDS HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH AS 57 MPH AT THE ARLINGTON WY DOT
SITE WITH OTHER SITES GUSTING 50 TO 55 MPH. MODELS DO SHOWING
WINDS ALOFT INCREASING SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT AS STRONG
OF SUBSIDENCE. AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AS
WINDS SHOULD BE MARGINAL FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING AND RELATIVELY
LOCALIZED.
UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS AS THE STANDING WAVE CLOUDS IS IN PLACE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MODELS INDICATE THE WAVE
COULD WILL THIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD NOT SEE A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT IT WILL BE A SLOWER RISE IN TEMPERATURES
AND COULD END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST WHERE
THE WAVE CLOUD HANGS ON THE LONGEST. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
MAIN WEATHER STORIES THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND THE WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HIGHS THIS AFTN ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST GRIDS FOR THIS AFTN WAS TO DECREASE
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY STRETCHING FROM LARAMIE COUNTY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-TO-MIDLEVELS
WILL COMBINE WITH EXCELLENT SOLAR INSULATION TO PRODUCE DEEP LLVL
MIXING THIS AFTN AND IT IS THESE CONDITIONS THAT MOS OFTEN GROSSLY
UNDERESTIMATES AFTN DEWPOINTS. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND RUC GUIDANCE AND THIS RESULTS IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE OVER THE PANHANDLE. EXCELLENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO
25-30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THUS...DECIDED TO ISSUE A
RFW FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE.
THE NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN IS WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE GFS SHOWS 700MB WINDS OF 40-45 KTS FROM 18-00Z AND THE 700MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS AROUND 45 METERS. CONTEMPLATED PUTTING THE
ARLINGTON AREA IN A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE AFTN...HOWEVER WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THE LLVL GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT A BIT STRONGER. WILL
LIKELY SEE GUSTS AROUND 45 KTS IN THE ARLINGTON AREA WITH THE
FAVORABLE GAP WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ARLINGTON...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40
KTS DURING PEAK MIXING. THE LLVL GRADIENT COMES DOWN BY THIS
EVENING AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WILL SEE
WINDS DECREASE.
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTN TSTMS IN THE FCST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE
LIFTED INDICES OF 0C TO -1C. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A FROPA AFTER 06Z MON. BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT IS LARGELY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER MAY HAVE
TO WATCH THE NORTHEAST ZONES FOR ADVISORY AMOUNTS. THIS AREA WILL
BE CLOSEST TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEVELOPING TROWAL/FRONTOGENESIS
FEATURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH IN FUTURE MODEL
RUNS.
.LONG TERM...(EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND INTO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS...THERE IS STILL
CONCERN OVER A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH PLAINS.
FOR TUESDAY...ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAYS
SYSTEM ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RETREATING EASTWARD AS A
WARM FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME
EASTERN ZONES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL OVERRUNNING EVENT
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY MELT AND/OR
CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 50S.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS WESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
THE PLACEMENT...MOVEMENT...AND POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF A STRONG
WINTER STORM. ALL MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
AND ATTEMPTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE ECMWF SHOWS A RATHER
DISORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM...WITH THE MAIN LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST
AND THEN DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND THEN INITIATES STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS IN KANSAS/MISSOURI LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
INDICATES SPLIT FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR I80 DUE TO THE SOUTHERN WAVE...AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING DUE TO THE MAIN LOW WITH LITTLE IN BETWEEN.
THE GEM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING A COLORADO LOW SLOWLY
EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SCENARIO
RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE
I80 CORRIDOR GETTING CLIPPED BY LIGHT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...THE 06Z
GFS IS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE GEM. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS WERE IN BETWEEN THE GEM AND GFS LAST NIGHT...SO KEPT POP
BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH POP NEAR
70 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CHANGES...BUT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
APPEARS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. LOWERED TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AFTER 15Z TODAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. IT WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 414 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2014
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PANHANDLE SINCE
FUELS ARE CONDUCIVE TO FIRE GROWTH IN THAT REGION. WHILE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE
LESS SO ONLY AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
445 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
MAIN WEATHER STORIES THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND THE WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HIGHS THIS AFTN ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST GRIDS FOR THIS AFTN WAS TO DECREASE
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY STRETCHING FROM LARAMIE COUNTY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-TO-MIDLEVELS
WILL COMBINE WITH EXCELLENT SOLAR INSULATION TO PRODUCE DEEP LLVL
MIXING THIS AFTN AND IT IS THESE CONDITIONS THAT MOS OFTEN GROSSLY
UNDERESTIMATES AFTN DEWPOINTS. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND RUC GUIDANCE AND THIS RESULTS IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE OVER THE PANHANDLE. EXCELLENT MIXING WILL TAP INTO
25-30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THUS...DECIDED TO ISSUE A
RFW FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE.
THE NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN IS WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE GFS SHOWS 700MB WINDS OF 40-45 KTS FROM 18-00Z AND THE 700MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS AROUND 45 METERS. CONTEMPLATED PUTTING THE
ARLINGTON AREA IN A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE AFTN...HOWEVER WOULD
LIKE TO SEE THE LLVL GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT A BIT STRONGER. WILL
LIKELY SEE GUSTS AROUND 45 KTS IN THE ARLINGTON AREA WITH THE
FAVORABLE GAP WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ARLINGTON...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40
KTS DURING PEAK MIXING. THE LLVL GRADIENT COMES DOWN BY THIS
EVENING AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WILL SEE
WINDS DECREASE.
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTN TSTMS IN THE FCST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE
LIFTED INDICES OF 0C TO -1C. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A FROPA AFTER 06Z MON. BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT IS LARGELY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER MAY HAVE
TO WATCH THE NORTHEAST ZONES FOR ADVISORY AMOUNTS. THIS AREA WILL
BE CLOSEST TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEVELOPING TROWAL/FRONTOGENESIS
FEATURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH IN FUTURE MODEL
RUNS.
.LONG TERM...(EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND INTO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS...THERE IS STILL
CONCERN OVER A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH PLAINS.
FOR TUESDAY...ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAYS
SYSTEM ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RETREATING EASTWARD AS A
WARM FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND COOL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 30 TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME
EASTERN ZONES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL OVERRUNNING EVENT
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY MELT AND/OR
CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 50S.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS WESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
THE PLACEMENT...MOVEMENT...AND POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF A STRONG
WINTER STORM. ALL MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF BREAK EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
AND ATTEMPTS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE ECMWF SHOWS A RATHER
DISORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM...WITH THE MAIN LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST
AND THEN DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND THEN INITIATES STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS IN KANSAS/MISSOURI LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF
INDICATES SPLIT FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR I80 DUE TO THE SOUTHERN WAVE...AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING DUE TO THE MAIN LOW WITH LITTLE IN BETWEEN.
THE GEM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING A COLORADO LOW SLOWLY
EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SCENARIO
RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE
I80 CORRIDOR GETTING CLIPPED BY LIGHT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...THE 06Z
GFS IS FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE GEM. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS WERE IN BETWEEN THE GEM AND GFS LAST NIGHT...SO KEPT POP
BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH POP NEAR
70 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CHANGES...BUT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
APPEARS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. LOWERED TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AFTER 15Z TODAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. IT WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 414 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2014
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PANHANDLE SINCE
FUELS ARE CONDUCIVE TO FIRE GROWTH IN THAT REGION. WHILE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE
LESS SO ONLY AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
319 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE TODAY...BEFORE FINALLY PULLING
AWAY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...SPREADING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BANDS OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR UP TO A QUICK INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF
THE HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS YESTERDAY.
LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THIS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERY WELL. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL/MIX WILL BE
DISSIPATING AROUND 16Z.
AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN LIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THIS PACKAGE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STRONG...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STUBBORN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING TO FINALLY TAKE PLACE. SUNSHINE
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE BACK TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES EMERGE AFTER THURSDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONE LAST ROUND OF LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS AND
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...
WED...SCT MVFR IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LCL IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY GALES EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW TO PULL AWAY.
LONG TERM...
THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS MELT/RUNOFF SHOULD CONTINUE
WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE SUNCOOK RIVER. ICE IN THE GAGE CONTINUES TO
EFFECT THE WEST CLAREMONT GAGE ON THE SUGAR RIVER. THANKS TO THE
LOCAL PD FOR LOOKING INTO THIS ISSUE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES AND WAVES WILL REMAIN MODESTLY HIGH TODAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME BEACH EROSION...HOWEVER THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS EVENT
TO SETTLE DOWN WITH TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT. HENCE...NO ADVISORIES
OR STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ012>014-
018>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ012>014-019>022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ003>010-013-
014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NHZ002>005-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NHZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
SCHWIBS/CANNON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
407 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEEKEND...IS NOW PULLING
OUT TO SEA. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD...FOLLOWED BY SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. OUR
NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS ACROSS THE FAR SERN FA. RETURNS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO THE POINT THAT WE WERE ABLE TO LOWER ALL REMAINING
FLAGS FOR THIS EVENT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR FROM 850-700MB THAT I THINK WE
WILL CLEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN NORTHWEST FLOW NORMALLY ALLOWS IN
EARLY SPRING. WILL FORECAST CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST FROM
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
COOL AIRMASS ON BACKSIDE OF CYCLONE (925MB TEMPS -1C TO 2C) WILL
LIMIT AFTERNOON MAXES TO THE MID 40S ACROSS NY, AND TO NEAR 50
OVER OUR SRN COUNTIES.
220 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED A FEW MORE COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA.
WILL HOLD THE NEXT UPDATE PACKAGE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. HOPEFULLY
BY THEN WE CAN LOWER ALL FLAGS.
1210 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED ONEIDA, MADISON AND BRADFORD COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY
AREA.
SNOW REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER THE
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RETURNS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THE
LATEST HRRR AND WRFARW REFLECTIVITY PROGS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HOWEVER THE HRRR MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO FAST
AND AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPERING THE PRECIP OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE GOOD NEWS SO FAR IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW
"UP" WX TYPES HAVE SHOWN UP JUST AFTER THE PRECIP EXITED A
STATION, BUT QUICKLY ENDED. SO I WILL HUG THE -FZDZ PTYPE TO THE
15-30 POP AREA BEHIND THE BANDS AND QUICKLY MOVE IT THROUGH.
UPDATED AS OF 940 PM...
UPGRADED BROOME...SUSQUEHANNA...WYOMING AND NORTHERN WAYNE CO/S TO
WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOWFALL SPOTTER REPORTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES WILL EXCEED 10 INCHES. MANY REPORTS
RECEIVED BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA SO WITH
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS...BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 7
INCHES IN THESE COUNTIES. FARTHER N LESS SNOW WAS REPORTED IN
CHENANGO CO AND DELWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES...TO THE TUNE OF 2-5
INCHES. I CAN SEE A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN THESE PLACES SO WILL
STICK WITH ADVY THERE. FARTHER S OF THE WARNING AREA...SNOW IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT CONCENTRATING INTO BANDS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL TAPER DOWN
AND WEAKEN...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW TO THE EAST TWD THE POCONOS AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS. I THINK WE WILL SEE SNOW AMNTS OF 2-5 INCHES IN THE
POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SO WILL
CONT ADVY/S IN THE REST OF NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO.
PREVIOUS DSCN IS BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE NJ COAST. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS SET
UP TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ABT UCA TO NORWICH TO
THE CITY OF BINGHAMTON TO AVP. THERE WAS A SECONDARY BAND OF
HEAVIER MIXED PRECIP...FROM DELAWARE CO INTO THE POCONOS. WITH
MORE SHOWERLY LOOKING PRECIP TO THE S AND E. THIS AREA WAS MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND JUST PLAIN RAIN.
THE RAP SHOWS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WAS PRESENTLY AT
THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL WEAKEN. I BELIEVE ANOTHER
BAND WILL FORM FARTHER TO THE S AND E AND AFFECT THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS INTO PIKE CO/SRN WAYNE BTWN 1 AND 4Z. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AT THIS TIME AND THUS
BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS STORM IN OUR AREA WILL BE
OVER. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMNTS DOWN A TOUCH FOR SULLIVAN AND
PIKE CO/S.
FARTHER N AND W...HAVE HAD TO CHASE SNOW AMNTS AS BANDING WAS
LEADING TO RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME SOME OF
THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS WERE RELATED TO THE MELTING LEVEL AND
JUST SLEET AND WET SNOW WAS FALLING WITH LESS ACCUMULATION. SO WE
HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON SPOTTER REPORTS. THANKS TO ALL SPOTTERS WHO
HAVE SENT REPORTS IN...THEY HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL.
WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVY WHERE IT IS IN EFFECT FOR NOW. LIKELY
WILL DROP CORTLAND AND TIOGA CO/S BY 9 PM OR SO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DEFORMATION BAND HAS HALTED ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS. I WILL WAIT
AND SEE ON THIS.
REST OF FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
JUST CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. A
STRENGTHENING CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND PULL WARM AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NY/PA. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY, LIKELY RESULTING IN THE WARMEST AIR WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SINCE LATE AUTUMN.
A SHORT WAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY AND RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO
LOWER OR MIDDLE 50S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF RUNS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WITH SHIELD OF MOISTURE EXTENDING WELL
EAST INTO OUR REGION. WHILE I DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS WPC JUST
YET...I DID INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THE FRI-FRI
NIGHT PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH WE STAY PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE, MOVES
THROUGH. WE ARE TALKING ALMOST AN ENTIRELY RAIN EVENT BUT SOME
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN FOR SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY AS OUR REGION
GETS INTO A DRY SLOT. BEYOND SATURDAY WE COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. SHARP OUTER RIM OF SNOW WILL STILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT IFR
SNOW AT KAVP 06Z-08Z...OTHERWISE ONLY DEALING WITH MVFR CIGS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. AIR MASS IS NOT COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
WIND DIRECTION HAS A LOT OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT...THUS EXPECTING
SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING 12Z-16Z INSTEAD OF
THE USUAL LONGER PERSISTING CIGS THAT OFTEN OCCUR BEHIND A SYSTEM.
BEHIND THE EXITING RIM OF SNOW...MODELS/SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY TOO
MOIST COMPARED TO OBSERVED CIGS...AND THUS I AM NOT EXPECTING IFR
CIG AT KBGM AT THIS POINT AS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. NNW WINDS
10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MUCH OF TODAY...THEN
DECOUPLING TO WELL UNDER 10 KTS FROM NE OR VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
LATE MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT...VFR.
WED/THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WED-THU...ALL TERMINALS THU NGT-FRI.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
400 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEEKEND...IS NOW PULLING
OUT TO SEA. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD...FOLLOWED BY SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. OUR
NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS ACROSS THE FAR SERN FA. RETURNS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO THE POINT THAT WE WERE ABLE TO LOWER ALL REMAINING
FLAGS FOR THIS EVENT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR FROM 850-700MB THAT I THINK WE
WILL CLEAR OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN NORTHWEST FLOW NORMALLY ALLOWS.
WILL FORECAST CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
COOL AIRMASS ON BACKSIDE OF CYCLONE (925MB TEMPS -1C TO 2C) WILL
LIMIT AFTERNOON MAXES TO THE MID 40S ACROSS NY, AND NEAR 50 OUR
SRN COUNTIES.
220 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED A FEW MORE COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA.
WILL HOLD THE NEXT UPDATE PACKAGE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. HOPEFULLY
BY THEN WE CAN LOWER ALL FLAGS.
1210 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED ONEIDA, MADISON AND BRADFORD COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY
AREA.
SNOW REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER THE
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RETURNS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THE
LATEST HRRR AND WRFARW REFLECTIVITY PROGS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HOWEVER THE HRRR MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO FAST
AND AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPERING THE PRECIP OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE GOOD NEWS SO FAR IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW
"UP" WX TYPES HAVE SHOWN UP JUST AFTER THE PRECIP EXITED A
STATION, BUT QUICKLY ENDED. SO I WILL HUG THE -FZDZ PTYPE TO THE
15-30 POP AREA BEHIND THE BANDS AND QUICKLY MOVE IT THROUGH.
UPDATED AS OF 940 PM...
UPGRADED BROOME...SUSQUEHANNA...WYOMING AND NORTHERN WAYNE CO/S TO
WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOWFALL SPOTTER REPORTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES WILL EXCEED 10 INCHES. MANY REPORTS
RECEIVED BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA SO WITH
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS...BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 7
INCHES IN THESE COUNTIES. FARTHER N LESS SNOW WAS REPORTED IN
CHENANGO CO AND DELWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES...TO THE TUNE OF 2-5
INCHES. I CAN SEE A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN THESE PLACES SO WILL
STICK WITH ADVY THERE. FARTHER S OF THE WARNING AREA...SNOW IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT CONCENTRATING INTO BANDS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL TAPER DOWN
AND WEAKEN...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW TO THE EAST TWD THE POCONOS AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS. I THINK WE WILL SEE SNOW AMNTS OF 2-5 INCHES IN THE
POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SO WILL
CONT ADVY/S IN THE REST OF NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO.
PREVIOUS DSCN IS BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE NJ COAST. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS SET
UP TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ABT UCA TO NORWICH TO
THE CITY OF BINGHAMTON TO AVP. THERE WAS A SECONDARY BAND OF
HEAVIER MIXED PRECIP...FROM DELAWARE CO INTO THE POCONOS. WITH
MORE SHOWERLY LOOKING PRECIP TO THE S AND E. THIS AREA WAS MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND JUST PLAIN RAIN.
THE RAP SHOWS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WAS PRESENTLY AT
THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL WEAKEN. I BELIEVE ANOTHER
BAND WILL FORM FARTHER TO THE S AND E AND AFFECT THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS INTO PIKE CO/SRN WAYNE BTWN 1 AND 4Z. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AT THIS TIME AND THUS
BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS STORM IN OUR AREA WILL BE
OVER. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMNTS DOWN A TOUCH FOR SULLIVAN AND
PIKE CO/S.
FARTHER N AND W...HAVE HAD TO CHASE SNOW AMNTS AS BANDING WAS
LEADING TO RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME SOME OF
THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS WERE RELATED TO THE MELTING LEVEL AND
JUST SLEET AND WET SNOW WAS FALLING WITH LESS ACCUMULATION. SO WE
HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON SPOTTER REPORTS. THANKS TO ALL SPOTTERS WHO
HAVE SENT REPORTS IN...THEY HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL.
WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVY WHERE IT IS IN EFFECT FOR NOW. LIKELY
WILL DROP CORTLAND AND TIOGA CO/S BY 9 PM OR SO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DEFORMATION BAND HAS HALTED ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS. I WILL WAIT
AND SEE ON THIS.
REST OF FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
JUST CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM UPDATE... HIPRES WL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AS COASTAL STORM
RIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TAKING MOISTURE WITH IT. ONLY LINGERING
AFFECT WL BE CLOUD CVR VRY EARLY IN THE MRNG BFR DRY AIR MVS IN FM
THE NW. SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY AND TEMPS WL HANDILY RISE INTO THE
40S/NR 50 UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN TOMORROW.
500MB HEIGHTS FOR TUESDAY WILL CLIMB TO NR 567DM WITH S/WV RIDGE
BUILDING DIRECTLY OVRHD. GIVEN STRONG MARCH SUN HV GONE ABV
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S/LWR 60S IN THE VLYS. NO
WX IS EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT S/WV APPCHS TUE NGT, SPREADING SHOWERS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY ACRS NRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF RUNS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WITH SHIELD OF MOISTURE EXTENDING WELL
EAST INTO OUR REGION. WHILE I DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS WPC JUST
YET...I DID INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THE FRI-FRI
NIGHT PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH WE STAY PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE, MOVES
THROUGH. WE ARE TALKING ALMOST AN ENTIRELY RAIN EVENT BUT SOME
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN FOR SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY AS OUR REGION
GETS INTO A DRY SLOT. BEYOND SATURDAY WE COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. SHARP OUTER RIM OF SNOW WILL STILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT IFR
SNOW AT KAVP 06Z-08Z...OTHERWISE ONLY DEALING WITH MVFR CIGS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. AIR MASS IS NOT COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
WIND DIRECTION HAS A LOT OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT...THUS EXPECTING
SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING 12Z-16Z INSTEAD OF
THE USUAL LONGER PERSISTING CIGS THAT OFTEN OCCUR BEHIND A SYSTEM.
BEHIND THE EXITING RIM OF SNOW...MODELS/SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY TOO
MOIST COMPARED TO OBSERVED CIGS...AND THUS I AM NOT EXPECTING IFR
CIG AT KBGM AT THIS POINT AS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. NNW WINDS
10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MUCH OF TODAY...THEN
DECOUPLING TO WELL UNDER 10 KTS FROM NE OR VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
LATE MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT...VFR.
WED/THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WED-THU...ALL TERMINALS THU NGT-FRI.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
351 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEEKEND...IS NOW PULLING
AWAY OUT TO SEA. LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD...FOLLOWED BY SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.
OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
220 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED A FEW MORE COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA.
WILL HOLD THE NEXT UPDATE PACKAGE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. HOPEFULLY
BY THEN WE CAN LOWER ALL FLAGS.
1210 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED ONEIDA, MADISON AND BRADFORD COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY
AREA.
SNOW REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER THE
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RETURNS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THE
LATEST HRRR AND WRFARW REFLECTIVITY PROGS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HOWEVER THE HRRR MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO FAST
AND AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPERING THE PRECIP OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE GOOD NEWS SO FAR IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW
"UP" WX TYPES HAVE SHOWN UP JUST AFTER THE PRECIP EXITED A
STATION, BUT QUICKLY ENDED. SO I WILL HUG THE -FZDZ PTYPE TO THE
15-30 POP AREA BEHIND THE BANDS AND QUICKLY MOVE IT THROUGH.
UPDATED AS OF 940 PM...
UPGRADED BROOME...SUSQUEHANNA...WYOMING AND NORTHERN WAYNE CO/S TO
WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOWFALL SPOTTER REPORTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES WILL EXCEED 10 INCHES. MANY REPORTS
RECEIVED BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA SO WITH
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS...BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 7
INCHES IN THESE COUNTIES. FARTHER N LESS SNOW WAS REPORTED IN
CHENANGO CO AND DELWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES...TO THE TUNE OF 2-5
INCHES. I CAN SEE A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN THESE PLACES SO WILL
STICK WITH ADVY THERE. FARTHER S OF THE WARNING AREA...SNOW IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT CONCENTRATING INTO BANDS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL TAPER DOWN
AND WEAKEN...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW TO THE EAST TWD THE POCONOS AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS. I THINK WE WILL SEE SNOW AMNTS OF 2-5 INCHES IN THE
POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SO WILL
CONT ADVY/S IN THE REST OF NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO.
PREVIOUS DSCN IS BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE NJ COAST. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS SET
UP TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ABT UCA TO NORWICH TO
THE CITY OF BINGHAMTON TO AVP. THERE WAS A SECONDARY BAND OF
HEAVIER MIXED PRECIP...FROM DELAWARE CO INTO THE POCONOS. WITH
MORE SHOWERLY LOOKING PRECIP TO THE S AND E. THIS AREA WAS MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND JUST PLAIN RAIN.
THE RAP SHOWS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WAS PRESENTLY AT
THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL WEAKEN. I BELIEVE ANOTHER
BAND WILL FORM FARTHER TO THE S AND E AND AFFECT THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS INTO PIKE CO/SRN WAYNE BTWN 1 AND 4Z. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AT THIS TIME AND THUS
BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS STORM IN OUR AREA WILL BE
OVER. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMNTS DOWN A TOUCH FOR SULLIVAN AND
PIKE CO/S.
FARTHER N AND W...HAVE HAD TO CHASE SNOW AMNTS AS BANDING WAS
LEADING TO RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME SOME OF
THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS WERE RELATED TO THE MELTING LEVEL AND
JUST SLEET AND WET SNOW WAS FALLING WITH LESS ACCUMULATION. SO WE
HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON SPOTTER REPORTS. THANKS TO ALL SPOTTERS WHO
HAVE SENT REPORTS IN...THEY HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL.
WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVY WHERE IT IS IN EFFECT FOR NOW. LIKELY
WILL DROP CORTLAND AND TIOGA CO/S BY 9 PM OR SO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DEFORMATION BAND HAS HALTED ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS. I WILL WAIT
AND SEE ON THIS.
REST OF FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
JUST CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AS COASTAL STORM RIDES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TAKING MOISTURE WITH IT. ONLY LINGERING AFFECT WL BE
CLOUD CVR VRY EARLY IN THE MRNG BFR DRY AIR MVS IN FM THE NW.
SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY AND TEMPS WL HANDILY RISE INTO THE 40S/NR 50
UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN TOMORROW.
500MB HEIGHTS FOR TUESDAY WILL CLIMB TO NR 567DM WITH S/WV RIDGE
BUILDING DIRECTLY OVRHD. GIVEN STRONG MARCH SUN HV GONE ABV
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S/LWR 60S IN THE VLYS. NO
WX IS EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT S/WV APPCHS TUE NGT, SPREADING SHOWERS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY ACRS NRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF RUNS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WITH SHIELD OF MOISTURE EXTENDING WELL
EAST INTO OUR REGION. WHILE I DID NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS WPC JUST
YET...I DID INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THE FRI-FRI
NIGHT PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH WE STAY PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE, MOVES
THROUGH. WE ARE TALKING ALMOST AN ENTIRELY RAIN EVENT BUT SOME
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN FOR SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY AS OUR REGION
GETS INTO A DRY SLOT. BEYOND SATURDAY WE COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. SHARP OUTER RIM OF SNOW WILL STILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT IFR
SNOW AT KAVP 06Z-08Z...OTHERWISE ONLY DEALING WITH MVFR CIGS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. AIR MASS IS NOT COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
WIND DIRECTION HAS A LOT OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT...THUS EXPECTING
SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING 12Z-16Z INSTEAD OF
THE USUAL LONGER PERSISTING CIGS THAT OFTEN OCCUR BEHIND A SYSTEM.
BEHIND THE EXITING RIM OF SNOW...MODELS/SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY TOO
MOIST COMPARED TO OBSERVED CIGS...AND THUS I AM NOT EXPECTING IFR
CIG AT KBGM AT THIS POINT AS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. NNW WINDS
10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MUCH OF TODAY...THEN
DECOUPLING TO WELL UNDER 10 KTS FROM NE OR VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
LATE MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT...VFR.
WED/THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WED-THU...ALL TERMINALS THU NGT-FRI.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-
047-048-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ039-
040-043.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN/MDP
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
221 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM THAT WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ALL THE SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM INTERSTATE 81
AND POINTS EAST. AS THIS WINTER STORM EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
COAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
MILDER MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 40S FOR MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY NEAR 60 FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
220 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED A FEW MORE COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA.
WILL HOLD THE NEXT UPDATE PACKAGE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. HOPEFULLY
BY THEN WE CAN LOWER ALL FLAGS.
1210 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED ONEIDA, MADISON AND BRADFORD COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY
AREA.
SNOW REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER THE
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RETURNS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THE
LATEST HRRR AND WRFARW REFLECTIVITY PROGS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HOWEVER THE HRRR MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO FAST
AND AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPERING THE PRECIP OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE GOOD NEWS SO FAR IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW
"UP" WX TYPES HAVE SHOWN UP JUST AFTER THE PRECIP EXITED A
STATION, BUT QUICKLY ENDED. SO I WILL HUG THE -FZDZ PTYPE TO THE
15-30 POP AREA BEHIND THE BANDS AND QUICKLY MOVE IT THROUGH.
UPDATED AS OF 940 PM...
UPGRADED BROOME...SUSQUEHANNA...WYOMING AND NORTHERN WAYNE CO/S TO
WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOWFALL SPOTTER REPORTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES WILL EXCEED 10 INCHES. MANY REPORTS
RECEIVED BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA SO WITH
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS...BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 7
INCHES IN THESE COUNTIES. FARTHER N LESS SNOW WAS REPORTED IN
CHENANGO CO AND DELWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES...TO THE TUNE OF 2-5
INCHES. I CAN SEE A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN THESE PLACES SO WILL
STICK WITH ADVY THERE. FARTHER S OF THE WARNING AREA...SNOW IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT CONCENTRATING INTO BANDS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL TAPER DOWN
AND WEAKEN...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW TO THE EAST TWD THE POCONOS AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS. I THINK WE WILL SEE SNOW AMNTS OF 2-5 INCHES IN THE
POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SO WILL
CONT ADVY/S IN THE REST OF NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO.
PREVIOUS DSCN IS BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE NJ COAST. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS SET
UP TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ABT UCA TO NORWICH TO
THE CITY OF BINGHAMTON TO AVP. THERE WAS A SECONDARY BAND OF
HEAVIER MIXED PRECIP...FROM DELAWARE CO INTO THE POCONOS. WITH
MORE SHOWERLY LOOKING PRECIP TO THE S AND E. THIS AREA WAS MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND JUST PLAIN RAIN.
THE RAP SHOWS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WAS PRESENTLY AT
THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL WEAKEN. I BELIEVE ANOTHER
BAND WILL FORM FARTHER TO THE S AND E AND AFFECT THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS INTO PIKE CO/SRN WAYNE BTWN 1 AND 4Z. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AT THIS TIME AND THUS
BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS STORM IN OUR AREA WILL BE
OVER. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMNTS DOWN A TOUCH FOR SULLIVAN AND
PIKE CO/S.
FARTHER N AND W...HAVE HAD TO CHASE SNOW AMNTS AS BANDING WAS
LEADING TO RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME SOME OF
THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS WERE RELATED TO THE MELTING LEVEL AND
JUST SLEET AND WET SNOW WAS FALLING WITH LESS ACCUMULATION. SO WE
HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON SPOTTER REPORTS. THANKS TO ALL SPOTTERS WHO
HAVE SENT REPORTS IN...THEY HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL.
WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVY WHERE IT IS IN EFFECT FOR NOW. LIKELY
WILL DROP CORTLAND AND TIOGA CO/S BY 9 PM OR SO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DEFORMATION BAND HAS HALTED ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS. I WILL WAIT
AND SEE ON THIS.
REST OF FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
JUST CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AS COASTAL STORM RIDES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TAKING MOISTURE WITH IT. ONLY LINGERING AFFECT WL BE
CLOUD CVR VRY EARLY IN THE MRNG BFR DRY AIR MVS IN FM THE NW.
SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY AND TEMPS WL HANDILY RISE INTO THE 40S/NR 50
UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN TOMORROW.
500MB HEIGHTS FOR TUESDAY WILL CLIMB TO NR 567DM WITH S/WV RIDGE
BUILDING DIRECTLY OVRHD. GIVEN STRONG MARCH SUN HV GONE ABV
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S/LWR 60S IN THE VLYS. NO
WX IS EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT S/WV APPCHS TUE NGT, SPREADING SHOWERS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY ACRS NRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE..
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH WE STAY PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE, MOVES
THROUGH. WE ARE TALKING ALMOST AN ENTIRELY RAIN EVENT BUT SOME
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN FOR SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY AS OUR REGION
GETS INTO A DRY SLOT. BEYOND SATURDAY WE COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. SHARP OUTER RIM OF SNOW WILL STILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT IFR
SNOW AT KAVP 06Z-08Z...OTHERWISE ONLY DEALING WITH MVFR CIGS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. AIR MASS IS NOT COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
WIND DIRECTION HAS A LOT OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT...THUS EXPECTING
SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING 12Z-16Z INSTEAD OF
THE USUAL LONGER PERSISTING CIGS THAT OFTEN OCCUR BEHIND A SYSTEM.
BEHIND THE EXITING RIM OF SNOW...MODELS/SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY TOO
MOIST COMPARED TO OBSERVED CIGS...AND THUS I AM NOT EXPECTING IFR
CIG AT KBGM AT THIS POINT AS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. NNW WINDS
10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MUCH OF TODAY...THEN
DECOUPLING TO WELL UNDER 10 KTS FROM NE OR VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
LATE MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT...VFR.
WED/THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WED-THU...ALL TERMINALS THU NGT-FRI.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-
047-048-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ039-
040-043.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
146 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM THAT WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ALL THE SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM INTERSTATE 81
AND POINTS EAST. AS THIS WINTER STORM EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
COAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
MILDER MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 40S FOR MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY NEAR 60 FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1210 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED ONEIDA, MADISON AND BRADFORD COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY
AREA.
SNOW REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER THE
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RETURNS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THE
LATEST HRRR AND WRFARW REFLECTIVITY PROGS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HOWEVER THE HRRR MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO FAST
AND AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPERING THE PRECIP OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE GOOD NEWS SO FAR IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW
"UP" WX TYPES HAVE SHOWN UP JUST AFTER THE PRECIP EXITED A
STATION, BUT QUICKLY ENDED. SO I WILL HUG THE -FZDZ PTYPE TO THE
15-30 POP AREA BEHIND THE BANDS AND QUICKLY MOVE IT THROUGH.
UPDATED AS OF 940 PM...
UPGRADED BROOME...SUSQUEHANNA...WYOMING AND NORTHERN WAYNE CO/S TO
WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOWFALL SPOTTER REPORTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES WILL EXCEED 10 INCHES. MANY REPORTS
RECEIVED BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA SO WITH
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS...BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 7
INCHES IN THESE COUNTIES. FARTHER N LESS SNOW WAS REPORTED IN
CHENANGO CO AND DELWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES...TO THE TUNE OF 2-5
INCHES. I CAN SEE A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN THESE PLACES SO WILL
STICK WITH ADVY THERE. FARTHER S OF THE WARNING AREA...SNOW IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT CONCENTRATING INTO BANDS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL TAPER DOWN
AND WEAKEN...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW TO THE EAST TWD THE POCONOS AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS. I THINK WE WILL SEE SNOW AMNTS OF 2-5 INCHES IN THE
POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SO WILL
CONT ADVY/S IN THE REST OF NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO.
PREVIOUS DSCN IS BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE NJ COAST. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS SET
UP TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ABT UCA TO NORWICH TO
THE CITY OF BINGHAMTON TO AVP. THERE WAS A SECONDARY BAND OF
HEAVIER MIXED PRECIP...FROM DELAWARE CO INTO THE POCONOS. WITH
MORE SHOWERLY LOOKING PRECIP TO THE S AND E. THIS AREA WAS MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND JUST PLAIN RAIN.
THE RAP SHOWS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WAS PRESENTLY AT
THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL WEAKEN. I BELIEVE ANOTHER
BAND WILL FORM FARTHER TO THE S AND E AND AFFECT THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS INTO PIKE CO/SRN WAYNE BTWN 1 AND 4Z. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AT THIS TIME AND THUS
BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS STORM IN OUR AREA WILL BE
OVER. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMNTS DOWN A TOUCH FOR SULLIVAN AND
PIKE CO/S.
FARTHER N AND W...HAVE HAD TO CHASE SNOW AMNTS AS BANDING WAS
LEADING TO RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME SOME OF
THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS WERE RELATED TO THE MELTING LEVEL AND
JUST SLEET AND WET SNOW WAS FALLING WITH LESS ACCUMULATION. SO WE
HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON SPOTTER REPORTS. THANKS TO ALL SPOTTERS WHO
HAVE SENT REPORTS IN...THEY HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL.
WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVY WHERE IT IS IN EFFECT FOR NOW. LIKELY
WILL DROP CORTLAND AND TIOGA CO/S BY 9 PM OR SO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DEFORMATION BAND HAS HALTED ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS. I WILL WAIT
AND SEE ON THIS.
REST OF FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
JUST CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AS COASTAL STORM RIDES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TAKING MOISTURE WITH IT. ONLY LINGERING AFFECT WL BE
CLOUD CVR VRY EARLY IN THE MRNG BFR DRY AIR MVS IN FM THE NW.
SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY AND TEMPS WL HANDILY RISE INTO THE 40S/NR 50
UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN TOMORROW.
500MB HEIGHTS FOR TUESDAY WILL CLIMB TO NR 567DM WITH S/WV RIDGE
BUILDING DIRECTLY OVRHD. GIVEN STRONG MARCH SUN HV GONE ABV
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S/LWR 60S IN THE VLYS. NO
WX IS EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT S/WV APPCHS TUE NGT, SPREADING SHOWERS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY ACRS NRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE..
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH WE STAY PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE, MOVES
THROUGH. WE ARE TALKING ALMOST AN ENTIRELY RAIN EVENT BUT SOME
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN FOR SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY AS OUR REGION
GETS INTO A DRY SLOT. BEYOND SATURDAY WE COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY. SHARP OUTER RIM OF SNOW WILL STILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT IFR
SNOW AT KAVP 06Z-08Z...OTHERWISE ONLY DEALING WITH MVFR CIGS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. AIR MASS IS NOT COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
WIND DIRECTION HAS A LOT OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT...THUS EXPECTING
SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS TO OCCUR THIS MORNING 12Z-16Z INSTEAD OF
THE USUAL LONGER PERSISTING CIGS THAT OFTEN OCCUR BEHIND A SYSTEM.
BEHIND THE EXITING RIM OF SNOW...MODELS/SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY TOO
MOIST COMPARED TO OBSERVED CIGS...AND THUS I AM NOT EXPECTING IFR
CIG AT KBGM AT THIS POINT AS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. NNW WINDS
10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS MUCH OF TODAY...THEN
DECOUPLING TO WELL UNDER 10 KTS FROM NE OR VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
LATE MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT...VFR.
WED/THU/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WED-THU...ALL TERMINALS THU NGT-FRI.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-
047-048-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ039-
040-043.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ045-
046-057-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ056.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1216 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM THAT WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ALL THE SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM INTERSTATE 81
AND POINTS EAST. AS THIS WINTER STORM EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
COAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
MILDER MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 40S FOR MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY NEAR 60 FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1210 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED ONEIDA, MADISON AND BRADFORD COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY
AREA.
SNOW REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER THE
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RETURNS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THE
LATEST HRRR AND WRFARW REFLECTIVITY PROGS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT SCENARIO. HOWEVER THE HRRR MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO FAST
AND AGGRESSIVE WITH TAPERING THE PRECIP OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THE GOOD NEWS SO FAR IS THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOWING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW
"UP" WX TYPES HAVE SHOWN UP JUST AFTER THE PRECIP EXITED A
STATION, BUT QUICKLY ENDED. SO I WILL HUG THE -FZDZ PTYPE TO THE
15-30 POP AREA BEHIND THE BANDS AND QUICKLY MOVE IT THROUGH.
UPDATED AS OF 940 PM...
UPGRADED BROOME...SUSQUEHANNA...WYOMING AND NORTHERN WAYNE CO/S TO
WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON SNOWFALL SPOTTER REPORTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES WILL EXCEED 10 INCHES. MANY REPORTS
RECEIVED BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA SO WITH
PRESENT RADAR TRENDS...BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 7
INCHES IN THESE COUNTIES. FARTHER N LESS SNOW WAS REPORTED IN
CHENANGO CO AND DELWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES...TO THE TUNE OF 2-5
INCHES. I CAN SEE A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN THESE PLACES SO WILL
STICK WITH ADVY THERE. FARTHER S OF THE WARNING AREA...SNOW IS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT CONCENTRATING INTO BANDS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY...THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL TAPER DOWN
AND WEAKEN...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW TO THE EAST TWD THE POCONOS AND
WESTERN CATSKILLS. I THINK WE WILL SEE SNOW AMNTS OF 2-5 INCHES IN THE
POCONOS/WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SO WILL
CONT ADVY/S IN THE REST OF NE PA AND SULLIVAN CO.
PREVIOUS DSCN IS BELOW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OFF THE NJ COAST. A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS SET
UP TO THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ABT UCA TO NORWICH TO
THE CITY OF BINGHAMTON TO AVP. THERE WAS A SECONDARY BAND OF
HEAVIER MIXED PRECIP...FROM DELAWARE CO INTO THE POCONOS. WITH
MORE SHOWERLY LOOKING PRECIP TO THE S AND E. THIS AREA WAS MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND JUST PLAIN RAIN.
THE RAP SHOWS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WAS PRESENTLY AT
THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL WEAKEN. I BELIEVE ANOTHER
BAND WILL FORM FARTHER TO THE S AND E AND AFFECT THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS INTO PIKE CO/SRN WAYNE BTWN 1 AND 4Z. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AT THIS TIME AND THUS
BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS STORM IN OUR AREA WILL BE
OVER. SO HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMNTS DOWN A TOUCH FOR SULLIVAN AND
PIKE CO/S.
FARTHER N AND W...HAVE HAD TO CHASE SNOW AMNTS AS BANDING WAS
LEADING TO RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BUT AT THE SAME TIME SOME OF
THE HIGHER RADAR RETURNS WERE RELATED TO THE MELTING LEVEL AND
JUST SLEET AND WET SNOW WAS FALLING WITH LESS ACCUMULATION. SO WE
HAVE RELIED HEAVILY ON SPOTTER REPORTS. THANKS TO ALL SPOTTERS WHO
HAVE SENT REPORTS IN...THEY HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL.
WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVY WHERE IT IS IN EFFECT FOR NOW. LIKELY
WILL DROP CORTLAND AND TIOGA CO/S BY 9 PM OR SO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DEFORMATION BAND HAS HALTED ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS. I WILL WAIT
AND SEE ON THIS.
REST OF FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
JUST CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
320 PM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN ON MONDAY AS COASTAL STORM RIDES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TAKING MOISTURE WITH IT. ONLY LINGERING AFFECT WL BE
CLOUD CVR VRY EARLY IN THE MRNG BFR DRY AIR MVS IN FM THE NW.
SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY AND TEMPS WL HANDILY RISE INTO THE 40S/NR 50
UNDER STRONG MARCH SUN TOMORROW.
500MB HEIGHTS FOR TUESDAY WILL CLIMB TO NR 567DM WITH S/WV RIDGE
BUILDING DIRECTLY OVRHD. GIVEN STRONG MARCH SUN HV GONE ABV
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH HIGHS IN THE U50S/LWR 60S IN THE VLYS. NO
WX IS EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT S/WV APPCHS TUE NGT, SPREADING SHOWERS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY ACRS NRN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE..
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH WILL RETURN TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH WE STAY PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE, MOVES
THROUGH. WE ARE TALKING ALMOST AN ENTIRELY RAIN EVENT BUT SOME
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY REMAIN FOR SOME WET SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY AS OUR REGION
GETS INTO A DRY SLOT. BEYOND SATURDAY WE COOL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ACTUAL
UPPER LOW MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
MONDAY MORNING. VFR MON AFTN ON. IN GENERAL IFR CIGS AT ITH AND
BGM WILL CONTINUE. POSSIBLE IFR AT AVP AND RME IN SNOW UP TO 3Z.
SHARP LINE OF SNOW FROM JUST EAST OF RME AND BGM. THIS LINE
SLOWING BUT MAY MAKE IT TO BOTH SITES THIS EVE WITH IFR VSBYS.
AREA OF SNOW ALSO OVER AVP CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DYING IN PLACE. MVFR CIGS WITH VSBYS IFR AND MVFR AVP. CIGS WILL
REMAIN THE SAME ALL NIGHT BUT AS SNOW ENDS VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR.
AT SYR/ELM/RME MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR VSBYS.
AT ITH/BGM IFR CIGS CONTINUE ALL NIGHT WITH VFR VSBYS. BGM DUE TO
ELEVATION AND ITH DUE TO FETCH OFF CAYUGA LAKE.
AFTER 10Z SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN TO VFR BY 16Z.
NORTH WINDS 10 T0 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT BGM AND AVP INTO
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON NGT THROUGH WED NGT...MAINLY VFR.
THUR/FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
8 PM UPDATE...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. CURRENT PRECIP
HAS CHANGED TO SNOW AND SLEET. RUNOFF SHOULD BE CUTTING OFF SOON.
THIS DUE TO TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AND PRECIP IN FROZEN
FORM. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE WATCH BY MIDNIGHT.
CURRENT FLOODING IS NINEMILE CREEK AT LAKELAND IN ONONDAGA COUNTY
AND TIOUGHNIOGA RIVER AT CORTLAND IN CORTLAND COUNTY. BOTH SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING THEN FALL BELOW MONDAY. NO
OTHER POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD NOW. NO REPORTS OF ICE JAMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-
047-048-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ039-
040-043.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ045-
046-057-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ056.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/DJP
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
122 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE COUNTIES THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. THE DRY SLOT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
AT LEAST THROUGH 10-12 UTC FOLLOWING THE 04/05 UTC RAP AND HRRR.
GIVEN THE IMPACTS OF THE DRY SLOT AND THUS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BAND EXPECTED INTO MONDAY...SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND DECREASED FOR THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY FOR JAMESTOWN SOUTH. SEE THE LATEST WSW STATEMENT FOR
DETAILS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
AGAIN NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL FOR A
COUPLE HOURS LATE THIS EVENING.
ALREADY REPORTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WEST IN
BILLINGS AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES. VERY STRONG FORCING IS POISED
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPPING SOUTH AND PRODUCE SNOW
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR FROM AROUND BISMARCK WEST TO
THE MONTANA BORDER. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WORD EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. WILL FRESHEN UP AND SEND OUT TEXT PRODUCTS
SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE EARLY EVENING FORECAST OTHER THAN
POPULATING WITH THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. LIGHT
RAIN IS CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS
TIME...WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT
AREAL COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH THE
EVENING. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO TAKE THE STORM TO ITS
FINISH.
MODELS ARE ALL LEANING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS
THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED AND WITH STRONGER
DYNAMICS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...AND
STRONGER WIND IN A TIGHTER GRADIENT.
WILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A DANGEROUS STORM WITH VERY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL...COMMERCE...AND PUBLIC SAFETY...FOR THOSE
AREAS IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING...BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
THROUGH THE DAY HAVE EXPANDED THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO THE NORTHEAST.
RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER 10 PM CDT AND
SPREAD NORTHEAST. BY DAYBREAK ALL AREAS SHOULD BE SNOWING WITH
INCREASING WIND.
STORM IS SLOWER TO WIND DOWN. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SNOW ENDS IN THE
NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...JAMESTOWN...
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT SUN
MAR 30 2014
TUESDAY WILL BE A QUIETER DAY BEHIND MONDAYS DEPARTING WINTER STORM
AS A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND HAVE MAINTAINED THIS IN THE GRIDDED DATA.
ANOTHER SOUTHWEST LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE AND BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TRACK OF SYSTEM AS THE GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM MAINLY SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF/GEM SHIFT THE INCOMING UPPER LOW CLOSER TO
NORTH DAKOTA AND HAVE A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THE ALLBLEND AT THIS TIME
WHICH CAPTURES A CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SCENARIO. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES THAT ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH WIDESPREAD IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. KISN AND KMOT WILL EXPERIENCE THE LEAST IMPACTS WITH LESS
WINDS...AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. KDIK...KBIS AND
KJMS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST IMPACTS WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY WITH KJMS REMAINING IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ013-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ010-
017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-
011-012.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ023-025-036-037-
047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1202 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WITH A MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION WITH
THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. THE FARTHEST NORTH
MODEL WOULD PUT OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA MORE IN THE CROSSFIRE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW AND OUR SOUTH WOULD MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MODELS DO
NOT SEEM TO FIT A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION. WILL COMPROMISE AND GO
MORE TOWARDS THE NAM WHICH IS NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS AND THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS. SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING SO WE PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW UNTIL
FAIRLY LATE IN THE GAME. CUT SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT OVER OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIP ALONG WITH
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW...BLIZZARD AND WINTER WARNINGS STILL LOOK
GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION EASTWARD
OF THE CATEGORICAL PERCENTAGES. DEVILS LAKE HAS HAD SOME RADAR
RETURNS FOR A WHILE BUT JUST NOW STARTED GETTING SOME SNOW. THINK
THAT IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES SEE
MUCH...BUT MOST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WILL SEE SOME SNOW
DEVELOPING BY 06 AND 09Z. THE BEST QPF VALUES CONTINUE TO BE LATER
ON IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP THE
HEADLINES WE HAVE GOING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST AS WE ARE IN A
HOLDING PATTERN UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING INTO THE
AREA. MAY HAVE TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF
POPS BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE BAND TO BEGIN DEVELOPING WHICH SHOULD
BE AROUND 03Z ACCORDING TO SHORT RANGE MODELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE STORM SYSTEM FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. 12Z MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR THE
WARNING PHASE. AS OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS HAD CLIMBED INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FA BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST. WINDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH SHIFTED TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION NOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN FA. ALSO
SEEING SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA WITH
SOME 40S IN SOUTHWEST MN. SEEING CLOUD COVER THICKENING A BIT
ACROSS THE AREA BUT STILL SOMEWHAT THIN ALLOWING SOME SUN THRU.
THIS IS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. THICKER CLOUDS AND MORE
SUBSTANTIAL ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND NOW.
MODELS SLOWLY BRING SOME OF THIS NORTHEAST INTO MAINLY THE KDVL
REGION LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD THIS EVENING
AND EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
FA. THEREFORE AS THIS BAND OF PCPN EXPANDS ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT PCPN TYPE COULD BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE. THEREFORE
THINKING SOME FORM OF MIXED PCPN MAY FALL LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA
WHERE TEMPS ARE A LITTLE MILDER. NOT THINKING THIS WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THOUGH...BUT WOULD DEFINITELY ADD TO THE
PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THINKING THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO GET HEAVIER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE KDVL REGION INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CRANK UP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FOR THIS
AREA SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THIS AREA
REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WATCH. AS THE SNOW BAND MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST MN EAST OF THE VALLEY WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS BIG OF A
PROBLEM. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS AREA. MAIN
QUESTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL AFFECT SNOW TOTALS AND EXACTLY WHEN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY GET UNDER WAY. THINK THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AREA TO KEEP THE BLIZZARD WATCH GOING THERE.
FOR THE FARGO MOORHEAD AREA CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY DETERIORATE
ON MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WENT WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THAT
AREA STARTING AT 12Z MONDAY. THIS IS THE TYPE OF SYSTEM THOUGH
THAT THERE COULD INITIALLY BE LARGE VARIATIONS IN CONDITIONS FROM
ONE PORTION OF A COUNTY TO ANOTHER. BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT
TO DO WITH EASTERN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH ADJACENT OFFICES WENT WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS THIS IS DEFINITELY A CHALLENGE.
REALLY THIS IS FORECASTING A RECORD TYPE EVENT SO HARD TO USE MUCH
PERSONAL EXPERIENCE. WENT WITH A BAND OF 20 OR SO INCHES FROM
COOPERSTOWN TO KGFK TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. MOST UNCERTAINTY
MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN. WITH MODELS
TRENDING NORTHWARD THE PAST FEW RUNS AND SLIGHT SHIFT COULD MAKE A
BIG DIFFERENCE. LEFT THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 12Z TUE ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD STILL BE SOMETHING LEFT IN THE EASTERN FA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
LEFT THE TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED TIME FRAME DRY. TEMPS WILL DEPEND
ON SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE MON/TUE STORM.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...12Z MODELS ALL INDICATE A STRONG SYSTEM
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK. THE
GEM AND ECMWF BRING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN FA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ALL SENSIBLE WEATHER TO THE SOUTH.
KEPT THE IDEA OF LOWER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA FOR THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INTO KGFK AND KTVF...SO
SLOWED THE DECREASE OUT OF VFR CIGS FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE KEPT THE CONDITIONS FALLING INTO THE GUTTER BY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FZRA
AT KFAR AND KBJI AT SOME POINT. HAVE THE CONDITIONS REMAINING AT
1/2SM WITH LOW SIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH ONLY
SOME MINOR RECOVERY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NDZ052-053.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-054.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ039-
049.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ029.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ015>017-022>024-027-028.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ030-040.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
009-013-014.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ002-
003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ031-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A VARIETY OF IMPACTS EXIST IN THE SHORT TERM FROM AN APPROACHING
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE. HAVE TRIED TO EXPLAIN THEM THE BEST IN
AN ORGANIZED FASHION BELOW.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH JUST OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST...A NEGATIVELY
TILTED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND RIDGING FROM
LOUISIANA INTO MICHIGAN. PLENTIFUL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WATER
VAPOR WAS STREAMING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS SCT-BKN
CIRRUS. BELOW THESE CLOUDS...A DRY AIRMASS EXISTS AS SEEN ON A 00Z
700MB AND 850MB RAOB PLOT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-20C FROM
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING IN THE SAME AREA...HOWEVER...NOW ABOUT 5-15
DEGREES HIGHER. THIS INCREASE WAS DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY 925MB WIND
OF 40-55 KT FROM THE FORECAST AREA DOWN INTO TEXAS...HELPING TO
BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE WINDS ARE ALSO HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S. 925MB TEMPS WERE
ANALYZED PER RAP AT 08Z OF 9-13C...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 00Z RAOBS. TO
THE WEST...A 988MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF ALLIANCE NEBRASKA. A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EAST OF THIS LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS PUTS
THE SHOWERS ROOTED AROUND 600MB. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...500MB HEIGHT PROGS FROM MODELS ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL NOW...BOTH IN TIMING AND STRENGTH...FOR THE TRACK OF THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. OVERALL TREND
OVER THE PAST WEEK FROM MODELS WAS A SLOWER...DEEPER AND MORE
NORTHWEST TRACK. CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
WATERTOWN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE DULUTH MN AREA BY
12Z TUE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
TAKES NEARLY THE SAME ROUTE...WITH THE PRESSURE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE.
PRECIPITATION...THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE/500MB FEATURES ARE
GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH ALL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. IF THERE WAS MORE
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SAY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S...THIS MIGHT BE A DIFFERENT STORY. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 3 WAVES OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...
1. THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS LIFT LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE PLENTIFUL LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY MAKE IT TOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...OVERALL MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LESS AND LESS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...WITH
THE REGIONAL CANADIAN AND TO SOME DEGREE THE RAP EVEN SUGGESTING
DRY. HAVE LOWERED CHANCES TO 20-30 WITH THIS WAVE.
2. THE SECOND WAVE OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COMES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS COLD FRONT. THERES A GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A NARROW LINE OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR
I-35 NEAR 00Z...CORRELATING WELL WITH AN AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE 0-
2KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET.
31.00Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF 1 HOUR PERIOD OF THE SHOWERS...
WHERE ALSO CAPE ROOTED ABOVE 850MB CLIMBS TO 200-300 J/KG. THIS CAPE
AND FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
GIVEN LIKELY INVERTED-V SOUNDING AND 850MB WINDS OF 45-50 KT...THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE ISOLATED.
3. THE FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF SNOW
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE AND MORE NORTHWEST
WITH THE REACH OF THE COLD CONVEYOR. AS IT STANDS NOW...LOCATIONS
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AUSTIN MN TO WAUSAU WI LOOK TO SEE
THE SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE SNOW MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
AS SUCH...ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES...925MB READINGS ARE PROGGED TO MOSTLY HOLD IN THE 9-
13C RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WARMEST TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AT
TIME OF PEAK MIXING. THE WARMER START TO THE DAY PLUS LIMITED IMPACT
FROM PRECIPITATION WOULD SUPPORT A WARMER SCENARIO. IN ADDITION...IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN BOTH EARLY IN THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BREEZY SOUTH WIND AIDING IN ADVECTING
WARMER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH TOO...SEEMS LIKE A SITUATION TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. DO THINK...THOUGH...THE MET
SHOWING 70-71 FOR BLACK RIVER FALLS...WINONA AND BOSCOBEL IS A BIT
TOO AMBITIOUS. READINGS WILL REALLY TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. BY 12Z TUE...925MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED BETWEEN -5 AND -7C. A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.
WINDS...925MB WINDS OF 30-40 KT HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THESE SHOULD PICK UP TOWARDS 45 KT AS
THE LOW AND FRONT NEAR. THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THE DAYTIME MIXING PLUS ISALLOBARIC HELP SHOULD
PUSH WIND GUSTS TOWARDS THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. THEN WE HAVE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH
925MB WINDS ALSO 30-40 KT AIDED TOO BY A PRESSURE RISE. MUCH OF THIS
SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN...RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WITH MAYBE
SOME HIGHER ONES TOWARDS 45 MPH. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
MPX...DMX...DVN AND MKX...SETTLED ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOSTLY THE
COUNTIES ALONG/WEST OF US-52. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED EXPANSION TO
THE EAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI DURING THE DAY SHIFT. FOR NOW PUT
THESE COUNTIES IN AN SPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES AND WE REALLY NEED TO WATCH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY CLOSELY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER IN EXITING THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE
SPED UP THE EXITING OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT SNOW AND BRINGING IN
CLEARING QUICKER. WITH A FASTER EXIT...IT APPEARS THOSE LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SNOW WILL SEE VERY LITTLE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
START OFF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN WHERE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES...SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER
SHOT TO LIGHTEN UP THE WINDS COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90.
THE NEXT CONCERN ON THE HORIZON INVOLVES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SUBJECTIVELY...THAT TROUGH LOOKS A LOT
MEANER THAN THE ONE COMING INTO THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING THIS FEATURE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING RIDGING AND A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE BIG PROBLEM HERE IS THAT THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MOSTLY
OCCURS ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN EASTERLY FLOW
COMING OUT OF COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND ONTARIO. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE ALL INDICATING A LEAD WAVE OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IMPACTING MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE CONCERNS WITH A
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS TO IMPACT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN ADDITION...EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE
EASTERLY FLOW OF DRY AIR COMBINING WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAY SEND
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FORECAST INCLUDES A
VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TROUGH
WHICH THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE ALL TRENDING
TOWARDS THE DEEP ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS TROUGH LIFTS UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A MUCH DEEPER PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING WET SNOW...PARTICULARLY
OVER OUR NORTHWEST...TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
WI THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO SAY...RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
60-70 RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
SEVERAL DETAILS TO DEPICT IN THIS SET OF FORECASTS. THE FIRST IS
THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS FOR MONDAY. ONCE THE INVERSION
BEGINS TO MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING...STRONG WIND SPEEDS WILL EXIST
IN THE MIXED LAYER TO GET BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE 31.00Z
NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO REACH INTO
THE MID 30 KNOT RANGE AT KRST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT KLSE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FAST MOVING ELEVATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF. NOT EXPECTING THESE TO LAST VERY LONG BUT FEEL THE
WINDS ARE MORE IMPORTANT FOR TIMING...SO WILL SHOW A LONGER WINDOW
OF A SHOWER CHANCE THAN WILL LIKELY OCCUR. A SECOND CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM...WILL COME AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE CAPE IS ONLY
ABOUT 200 J/KG FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AND CONFIDENCE ON THIS ACTUALLY
PRODUCING THUNDER IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. ONCE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT AND REMAIN GUSTY. GOOD
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON POSES SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER.
DEWPOINTS ALSO SHOULD MIX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHICH SAW THAT HAPPEN YESTERDAY.
FUELS ALSO WERE ABLE TO DRY OUT SOME FROM YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY DROP TO A MINIMUM OF 35
PERCENT...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS.
ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COMING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT DRY AIR EXISTS BELOW THE CLOUD
BASES...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL.
THUS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS...SO IF A FIRE WOULD GET
STARTED...THE WIND COULD HELP IT SPREAD A LITTLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TREMPEALEAU...JACKSON AND CLARK
COUNTIES. BOTH THE BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO
THE SNOWMELT THAT HAS OCCURRED YESTERDAY THROUGH NOW. CONTINUED
RAPID SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FROM TEMPERATURES PEAKING UP
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL ALLOW THE RIVERS TO CONTINUE RISING.
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED SOMETIME
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ON THE BLACK SINCE THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER BASIN
MAY BE EXHAUSTED OF SNOWMELT. SHOULD BE A CLOSE CALL ON THE
TREMPEALEAU AT DODGE...THOUGH.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...CONCERN IS GROWING OF A
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD
CLOSELY. LUCKILY THERE ISNT GOING TO BE ANY SNOWMELT OVER THAT
AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ029-033-034.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR LOWER DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. VERY DRY JUST OFF THE SURFACE...AND WITH MIXING
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. MAV/MET APPEAR TOO HIGH IN
DEWPOINTS AND THE LATEST RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLING AT
THE MIXING.
17
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014/
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME ON TUESDAY AS THE WEAK TRAILING END OF A SHORT WAVE
PASSES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORT WAVE HAS LIMITED MOISTURE..SO
EXPECT NO RAIN WITH IT BUT MAYBE SOME CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MAV/MET TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE NOT DEVIATED
MUCH. FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.
41
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH LATE WEEK. STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM
IN TERMS OF BOTH THE POSITIONING OF FEATURES AND TIMING. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND QUICKER WITH PUSHING
THE FRONT THROUGH. BOTH MODELS BRING THE PRECIP IN ON FRIDAY BUT
THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND DOESNT PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON
SATURDAY AND THUS THE GFS APPEARS TO INDICATE A FRIDAY AFTERNOON
TO SATURDAY EVENT IN TERMS OF THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. FORECAST
TRENDS TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. GFS SHOWS THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY FRIDAY EVENING WITH 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NW GA.
IN ADDITION IT PEGS AROUND 30 KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS N GA.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR WITH THE SYSTEM DECREASES...INSTABILITY IS
ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEED TO BE MONITORED.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
/ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014/
FUELS HAVE DRIED AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIP TO 25 PERCENT
OR LESS FOR AROUND 4 HOURS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS MAY BE BORDERLINE FOR HUMIDITY.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10KT THIS MORNING THEN
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 46 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 74 52 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 73 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 75 43 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 75 47 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 73 49 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 75 41 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 75 43 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 75 40 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 77 49 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...HALL...
HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JASPER...JONES...LAMAR...LUMPKIN...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...TOWNS...
TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
850 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY FROM
RAWLINS...RED WILLOW...SHERIDAN AND DECATUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THERE IS NOTICEABLE STREAKS OF DUST EVIDENT OVER
THESE COUNTIES. EXPECT THE LOW VISIBILITIES TO PROGRESS EAST INTO
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES THIS MORNING SO CHOSE TO INCLUDE THEM
IN THE DUST STORM WARNING AS WELL. ALSO INCLUDED HITCHCOCK COUNTY
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OF DUST STEAKS. WOULD EXPECT THE DUST
TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE
FURTHER EAST.
THE WORST VISIBILITIES WILL BE SOUTH OF TILLED FIELDS AND DIRT
ROADS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 811 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
EXPANDED HIGH WIND WARNING TO INCLUDE NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
SINCE NORTON IS CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 53 KNOTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE HAD AT ATLEAST A COUPLE REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
THIS MORNING...ONE AT WRAY ABOUT 90 MINUTES AGO AND ANOTHER AT
ATWOOD ABOUT 11 MINUTES AGO. HAVE ALSO HAD 2 REPORTS JUST UNDER
WARNING CRITERIA...ONE AT YUMA AND ANOTHER AT MCCOOK. THESE REPORTS
DO MAKE SINCE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE 500MB TROUGH WHICH HAS ITS
BASE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH IS
WHERE THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE WILL BE. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA SINCE THE BASE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE THAT FAR SOUTH. ALSO EXCLUDED NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES SINCE THE 500MB TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST BEFORE IT
GETS TO THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
EXPECT WINDS TO DECLINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER
WINDS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY DOWNGRADE THE
CURRENT WARNING TO AN ADVISORY BY THEN...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY KEPT
THE DURATION OF THE WARNING THE SAME AS THE ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY 2 HOURS SOONER
(BASICALLY NOW) GIVEN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH 1W YUMA AND 49 MPH IN
WRAY AT THE AWOS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE. RUC 800MB WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH
50-60KTS THROUGH 17Z OR SO ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS AREA ALSO UNDER MORE CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD
LIMIT FULL MIXING BUT ON THE OTHER HAND RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA SO THE STRONGER WINDS MAY COME FROM THAT.
WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT WRAY
AWOS (K2V5).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. A SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE WINDS AND THREAT OF
BLOWING DUST. BLENDED MAV/MET/LAMP WINDS ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM
LOCAL WIND PROGRAM. THIS IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
36KT TO 46KT RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS WE ARE
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA (50KTS) GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
KS/NE BORDER. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALREADY ADVERTISED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE EAST
AND SOUTHERLY PARTS OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
AM CONCERNED A BIT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER DESPITE SFC HIGH NOSING INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL CREATE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND LEOTI WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE CO/KS
BORDER. WINDS BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
NARROW SLIVER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
FEEL THAT THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
YUMA COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...UPPER
50S WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO
MID 30S EAST.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUS NOW TURNS TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH DAY THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN A TRANSITION
TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS
TO BE UNDER AN INCH AT PRESENT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TROUGH PASSAGE THU...WHILE GEM IS STILL
SLOWER/STRONGER/FURTHER NORTH. FINER DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER OVERALL TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF PRECIP AND COOLER
TEMPS. I BUMPED POPS UP (50 PERCENT NORTH) AND LOWERED HIGHS
(40-45F). BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/PRECIP
THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS TEMP
PROFILES WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SATURATION TO WET BULB TEMP WOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX OR COMPLETE SNOW CHANGEOVER THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. I TIED RAIN/SNOW MIX TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR SIMPLICITY
SAKE...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO FINE TUNE THIS AS WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON DAYTIME TEMPS AND AXIS OF PRECIP. THIS CHANGE OVER
ALSO IMPACTS SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH ALL SNOW POSSIBLY PUTTING US WITHIN
ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I-70 (3-5"). CURRENT FORECAST IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS SINCE IT IS FAVORING MORE OF A MIX/LIQUID
EVENT...JUST ANOTHER THING WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION
TO SPLIT FLOW...SHIFTING THE NORTHERN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH AND
EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT. WE SHOULD
ALSO SEE A RETURN OF SEASONAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IS ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY WHEN ECMWF
SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK
AND MOVES THIS TROUGH FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS KS. GFS IS WEAKER AND
FAVORS SUNDAY FOR PRECIP CHANCES. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
DURING THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY
HAVE MVFR/IFR CIGS IN BLOWING DUST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON BUT ITS TOO EARLY RIGHT NOW TO PINPOINT THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR IT TO IMPACT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...WEST WINDS 20 TO 25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z WITH AROUND 30KT
SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTING 40-45KTS THROUGH 20Z OR SO BEFORE VERY
SLOW DECREASING FROM 21Z TO 00Z TUESDAY. FOR TONIGHT SFC HIGH
MOVES IN WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 06Z
BECOMING NORTHEAST UNDER 5KTS AT KMCK...SOUTHEAST AROUND 6KTS AT
KGLD BY 12Z.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATE THIS MORNING BUT
ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
40 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING 15 PERCENT. RIGHT NOW AM JUST ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITE. WINDS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 40 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.
TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES (GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON) FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET. CURRENTLY HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO 16-17%. THESE LOW VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-013-014.
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-
015-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090-091.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ092.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
812 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 811 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
EXPANDED HIGH WIND WARNING TO INCLUDE NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
SINCE NORTON IS CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 53 KNOTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE HAD AT ATLEAST A COUPLE REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
THIS MORNING...ONE AT WRAY ABOUT 90 MINUTES AGO AND ANOTHER AT
ATWOOD ABOUT 11 MINUTES AGO. HAVE ALSO HAD 2 REPORTS JUST UNDER
WARNING CRITERIA...ONE AT YUMA AND ANOTHER AT MCCOOK. THESE REPORTS
DO MAKE SINCE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE 500MB TROUGH WHICH HAS ITS
BASE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH IS
WHERE THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE WILL BE. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA SINCE THE BASE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE THAT FAR SOUTH. ALSO EXCLUDED NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES SINCE THE 500MB TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST BEFORE IT
GETS TO THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
EXPECT WINDS TO DECLINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER
WINDS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY DOWNGRADE THE
CURRENT WARNING TO AN ADVISORY BY THEN...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY KEPT
THE DURATION OF THE WARNING THE SAME AS THE ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY 2 HOURS SOONER
(BASICALLY NOW) GIVEN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH 1W YUMA AND 49 MPH IN
WRAY AT THE AWOS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE. RUC 800MB WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH
50-60KTS THROUGH 17Z OR SO ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS AREA ALSO UNDER MORE CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD
LIMIT FULL MIXING BUT ON THE OTHER HAND RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA SO THE STRONGER WINDS MAY COME FROM THAT.
WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT WRAY
AWOS (K2V5).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. A SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE WINDS AND THREAT OF
BLOWING DUST. BLENDED MAV/MET/LAMP WINDS ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM
LOCAL WIND PROGRAM. THIS IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
36KT TO 46KT RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS WE ARE
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA (50KTS) GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
KS/NE BORDER. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALREADY ADVERTISED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE EAST
AND SOUTHERLY PARTS OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
AM CONCERNED A BIT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER DESPITE SFC HIGH NOSING INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL CREATE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND LEOTI WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE CO/KS
BORDER. WINDS BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
NARROW SLIVER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
FEEL THAT THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
YUMA COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...UPPER
50S WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO
MID 30S EAST.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUS NOW TURNS TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH DAY THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN A TRANSITION
TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS
TO BE UNDER AN INCH AT PRESENT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TROUGH PASSAGE THU...WHILE GEM IS STILL
SLOWER/STRONGER/FURTHER NORTH. FINER DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER OVERALL TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF PRECIP AND COOLER
TEMPS. I BUMPED POPS UP (50 PERCENT NORTH) AND LOWERED HIGHS
(40-45F). BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/PRECIP
THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS TEMP
PROFILES WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SATURATION TO WET BULB TEMP WOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX OR COMPLETE SNOW CHANGEOVER THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. I TIED RAIN/SNOW MIX TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR SIMPLICITY
SAKE...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO FINE TUNE THIS AS WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON DAYTIME TEMPS AND AXIS OF PRECIP. THIS CHANGE OVER
ALSO IMPACTS SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH ALL SNOW POSSIBLY PUTTING US WITHIN
ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I-70 (3-5"). CURRENT FORECAST IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS SINCE IT IS FAVORING MORE OF A MIX/LIQUID
EVENT...JUST ANOTHER THING WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION
TO SPLIT FLOW...SHIFTING THE NORTHERN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH AND
EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT. WE SHOULD
ALSO SEE A RETURN OF SEASONAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IS ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY WHEN ECMWF
SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK
AND MOVES THIS TROUGH FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS KS. GFS IS WEAKER AND
FAVORS SUNDAY FOR PRECIP CHANCES. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
DURING THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY
HAVE MVFR/IFR CIGS IN BLOWING DUST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON BUT ITS TOO EARLY RIGHT NOW TO PINPOINT THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR IT TO IMPACT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...WEST WINDS 20 TO 25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z WITH AROUND 30KT
SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTING 40-45KTS THROUGH 20Z OR SO BEFORE VERY
SLOW DECREASING FROM 21Z TO 00Z TUESDAY. FOR TONIGHT SFC HIGH
MOVES IN WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 06Z
BECOMING NORTHEAST UNDER 5KTS AT KMCK...SOUTHEAST AROUND 6KTS AT
KGLD BY 12Z.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATE THIS MORNING BUT
ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
40 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING 15 PERCENT. RIGHT NOW AM JUST ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITE. WINDS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 40 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.
TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES (GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON) FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET. CURRENTLY HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO 16-17%. THESE LOW VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090-091.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ092.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
744 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE HAD AT ATLEAST A COUPLE REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
THIS MORNING...ONE AT WRAY ABOUT 90 MINUTES AGO AND ANOTHER AT
ATWOOD ABOUT 11 MINUTES AGO. HAVE ALSO HAD 2 REPORTS JUST UNDER
WARNING CRITERIA...ONE AT YUMA AND ANOTHER AT MCCOOK. THESE REPORTS
DO MAKE SINCE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE 500MB TROUGH WHICH HAS ITS
BASE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH IS
WHERE THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE WILL BE. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA SINCE THE BASE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE THAT FAR SOUTH. ALSO EXCLUDED NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES SINCE THE 500MB TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST BEFORE IT
GETS TO THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
EXPECT WINDS TO DECLINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER
WINDS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY DOWNGRADE THE
CURRENT WARNING TO AN ADVISORY BY THEN...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY KEPT
THE DURATION OF THE WARNING THE SAME AS THE ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY 2 HOURS SOONER
(BASICALLY NOW) GIVEN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH 1W YUMA AND 49 MPH IN
WRAY AT THE AWOS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE. RUC 800MB WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH
50-60KTS THROUGH 17Z OR SO ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS AREA ALSO UNDER MORE CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD
LIMIT FULL MIXING BUT ON THE OTHER HAND RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA SO THE STRONGER WINDS MAY COME FROM THAT.
WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT WRAY
AWOS (K2V5).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. A SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE WINDS AND THREAT OF
BLOWING DUST. BLENDED MAV/MET/LAMP WINDS ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM
LOCAL WIND PROGRAM. THIS IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
36KT TO 46KT RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS WE ARE
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA (50KTS) GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
KS/NE BORDER. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALREADY ADVERTISED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE EAST
AND SOUTHERLY PARTS OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
AM CONCERNED A BIT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER DESPITE SFC HIGH NOSING INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL CREATE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND LEOTI WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE CO/KS
BORDER. WINDS BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
NARROW SLIVER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
FEEL THAT THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
YUMA COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...UPPER
50S WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO
MID 30S EAST.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUS NOW TURNS TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH DAY THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN A TRANSITION
TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS
TO BE UNDER AN INCH AT PRESENT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TROUGH PASSAGE THU...WHILE GEM IS STILL
SLOWER/STRONGER/FURTHER NORTH. FINER DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER OVERALL TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF PRECIP AND COOLER
TEMPS. I BUMPED POPS UP (50 PERCENT NORTH) AND LOWERED HIGHS
(40-45F). BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/PRECIP
THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS TEMP
PROFILES WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SATURATION TO WET BULB TEMP WOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX OR COMPLETE SNOW CHANGEOVER THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. I TIED RAIN/SNOW MIX TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR SIMPLICITY
SAKE...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO FINE TUNE THIS AS WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON DAYTIME TEMPS AND AXIS OF PRECIP. THIS CHANGE OVER
ALSO IMPACTS SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH ALL SNOW POSSIBLY PUTTING US WITHIN
ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I-70 (3-5"). CURRENT FORECAST IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS SINCE IT IS FAVORING MORE OF A MIX/LIQUID
EVENT...JUST ANOTHER THING WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION
TO SPLIT FLOW...SHIFTING THE NORTHERN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH AND
EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT. WE SHOULD
ALSO SEE A RETURN OF SEASONAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IS ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY WHEN ECMWF
SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK
AND MOVES THIS TROUGH FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS KS. GFS IS WEAKER AND
FAVORS SUNDAY FOR PRECIP CHANCES. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
DURING THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY
HAVE MVFR/IFR CIGS IN BLOWING DUST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON BUT ITS TOO EARLY RIGHT NOW TO PINPOINT THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR IT TO IMPACT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...WEST WINDS 20 TO 25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z WITH AROUND 30KT
SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTING 40-45KTS THROUGH 20Z OR SO BEFORE VERY
SLOW DECREASING FROM 21Z TO 00Z TUESDAY. FOR TONIGHT SFC HIGH
MOVES IN WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 06Z
BECOMING NORTHEAST UNDER 5KTS AT KMCK...SOUTHEAST AROUND 6KTS AT
KGLD BY 12Z.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATE THIS MORNING BUT
ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
40 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING 15 PERCENT. RIGHT NOW AM JUST ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITE. WINDS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 40 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.
TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES (GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON) FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET. CURRENTLY HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO 16-17%. THESE LOW VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-
016-027>029-041-042.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090-091.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ092.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
515 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY 2 HOURS SOONER
(BASICALLY NOW) GIVEN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH 1W YUMA AND 49 MPH IN
WRAY AT THE AWOS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE. RUC 800MB WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH
50-60KTS THROUGH 17Z OR SO ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS AREA ALSO UNDER MORE CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD
LIMIT FULL MIXING BUT ON THE OTHER HAND RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA SO THE STRONGER WINDS MAY COME FROM THAT.
WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT WRAY
AWOS (K2V5).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. A SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE WINDS AND THREAT OF
BLOWING DUST. BLENDED MAV/MET/LAMP WINDS ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM
LOCAL WIND PROGRAM. THIS IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
36KT TO 46KT RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS WE ARE
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA (50KTS) GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
KS/NE BORDER. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALREADY ADVERTISED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE EAST
AND SOUTHERLY PARTS OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
AM CONCERNED A BIT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER DESPITE SFC HIGH NOSING INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL CREATE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND LEOTI WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE CO/KS
BORDER. WINDS BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
NARROW SLIVER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
FEEL THAT THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
YUMA COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...UPPER
50S WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO
MID 30S EAST.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUS NOW TURNS TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH DAY THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN A TRANSITION
TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS
TO BE UNDER AN INCH AT PRESENT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TROUGH PASSAGE THU...WHILE GEM IS STILL
SLOWER/STRONGER/FURTHER NORTH. FINER DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER OVERALL TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF PRECIP AND COOLER
TEMPS. I BUMPED POPS UP (50 PERCENT NORTH) AND LOWERED HIGHS
(40-45F). BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/PRECIP
THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS TEMP
PROFILES WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SATURATION TO WET BULB TEMP WOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX OR COMPLETE SNOW CHANGEOVER THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. I TIED RAIN/SNOW MIX TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR SIMPLICITY
SAKE...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO FINE TUNE THIS AS WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON DAYTIME TEMPS AND AXIS OF PRECIP. THIS CHANGE OVER
ALSO IMPACTS SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH ALL SNOW POSSIBLY PUTTING US WITHIN
ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I-70 (3-5"). CURRENT FORECAST IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS SINCE IT IS FAVORING MORE OF A MIX/LIQUID
EVENT...JUST ANOTHER THING WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION
TO SPLIT FLOW...SHIFTING THE NORTHERN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH AND
EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT. WE SHOULD
ALSO SEE A RETURN OF SEASONAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IS ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY WHEN ECMWF
SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK
AND MOVES THIS TROUGH FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS KS. GFS IS WEAKER AND
FAVORS SUNDAY FOR PRECIP CHANCES. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
DURING THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY
HAVE MVFR/IFR CIGS IN BLOWING DUST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON BUT ITS TOO EARLY RIGHT NOW TO PINPOINT THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR IT TO IMPACT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...WEST WINDS 20 TO 25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z WITH AROUND 30KT
SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTING 40-45KTS THROUGH 20Z OR SO BEFORE VERY
SLOW DECREASING FROM 21Z TO 00Z TUESDAY. FOR TONIGHT SFC HIGH
MOVES IN WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH 06Z
BECOMING NORTHEAST UNDER 5KTS AT KMCK...SOUTHEAST AROUND 6KTS AT
KGLD BY 12Z.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS LATE THIS MORNING BUT
ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
40 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING 15 PERCENT. RIGHT NOW AM JUST ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITE. WINDS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 40 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.
TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES (GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON) FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET. CURRENTLY HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO 16-17%. THESE LOW VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1008 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE TODAY...BEFORE FINALLY PULLING
AWAY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...SPREADING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
10AM UPDATE...
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED A BIT AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD. HAVE REMOVED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR AREAS
BEHIND THE BAND. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE REMAINING ADVISORY AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET THEN TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS AROUND NOON.
830AM UPDATE...
NARROW BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET / FREEZING RAIN / RAIN CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOME SNOW WAS NOTED ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE BAND AT
WISCASSET AND AUGUSTA. TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT NOTED ON THE GYX
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED SLEET SOUNDING WITH
A LARGE INVERSION TO +6 C AT AROUND 800 MB WITH A STEEP COOLING TO
AROUND -6 C AT 900 MB. AS THE DAY GOES ON... EXPECT THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT TO SHIFT EAST... SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SLEET
AND SNOW WITH LESS FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH.
7AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE THE GRIDS TO HIT THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DRIVING
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AND MORE TREACHEROUS. ICE ACCRETION WILL
BE A QUARTER TO NEARLY A HALF INCH IN THIS REGION.
HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND FLOOD
WATCHES IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UP TO A QUICK INCH OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS YESTERDAY. LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THIS PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERY WELL. MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL/MIX WILL BE DISSIPATING AROUND 16Z.
AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN LIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THIS PACKAGE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STRONG...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STUBBORN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING TO FINALLY TAKE PLACE. SUNSHINE
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE BACK TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES EMERGE AFTER THURSDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONE LAST ROUND OF LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS AND
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...
WED...SCT MVFR IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY GALES EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW TO PULL AWAY.
LONG TERM...
THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ018-019-
022>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ008>010-
013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
834 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE TODAY...BEFORE FINALLY PULLING
AWAY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...SPREADING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
830AM UPDATE...
NARROW BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET / FREEZING RAIN / RAIN CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOME SNOW WAS NOTED ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE BAND AT
WISCASSET AND AUGUSTA. TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT NOTED ON THE GYX
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED SLEET SOUNDING WITH
A LARGE INVERSION TO +6 C AT AROUND 800 MB WITH A STEEP COOLING TO
AROUND -6 C AT 900 MB. AS THE DAY GOES ON... EXPECT THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT TO SHIFT EAST... SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SLEET
AND SNOW WITH LESS FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH.
7AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE THE GRIDS TO HIT THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DRIVING
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AND MORE TREACHEROUS. ICE ACCRETION WILL
BE A QUARTER TO NEARLY A HALF INCH IN THIS REGION.
HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND FLOOD
WATCHES IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UP TO A QUICK INCH OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS YESTERDAY. LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THIS PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERY WELL. MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL/MIX WILL BE DISSIPATING AROUND 16Z.
AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN LIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THIS PACKAGE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STRONG...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
STUBBORN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING TO FINALLY TAKE PLACE. SUNSHINE
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE BACK TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES EMERGE AFTER THURSDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONE LAST ROUND OF LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS AND
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...
WED...SCT MVFR IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY GALES EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW TO PULL AWAY.
LONG TERM...
THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ018>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ012-
018>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ006-008>010-
013-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ004-006-
008>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
657 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE TODAY...BEFORE FINALLY PULLING
AWAY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...SPREADING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE THE GRIDS TO HIT THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DRIVING
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AND MORE TRECHOROUS. ICE ACCRETION WILL
BE A QUARTER TO NEARLY A HALF INCH IN THIS REGION.
HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND FLOOD
WATCHES IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP HAS COME TO AN END.
PREV DISC...
BANDS OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UP TO A QUICK INCH OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS YESTERDAY. LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THIS PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERY WELL. MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL/MIX WILL BE DISSIPATING AROUND 16Z.
AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN LIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THIS PACKAGE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STRONG...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STUBBORN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING TO FINALLY TAKE PLACE. SUNSHINE
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE BACK TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES EMERGE AFTER THURSDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONE LAST ROUND OF LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS AND
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...
WED...SCT MVFR IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LCL IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY GALES EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW TO PULL AWAY.
LONG TERM...
THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ018>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ012-
018>022.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ006-008>010-
013-014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ004-006-
008>010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
620 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED NICELY ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA ON RADAR. DESPITE THE NUMEROUS LOOKING COVERAGE...1
HOUR METAR OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL ONLY SHOWING MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS. RAP TRENDS ARE LOOKING MORE PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THOUGH...SO FELT IT IS WARRANTED
TO RAISE CHANCES SOME. RAP STILL DIMINISHES THE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH MAKES
SENSE AS IT RUNS INTO DRY AIR AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING MIXES OUT.
ALREADY INTRODUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER PRIOR TO 15Z
WEST OF HIGHWAY 52. LOOKS LIKE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WANES THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A VARIETY OF IMPACTS EXIST IN THE SHORT TERM FROM AN APPROACHING
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE. HAVE TRIED TO EXPLAIN THEM THE BEST IN
AN ORGANIZED FASHION BELOW.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH JUST OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST...A NEGATIVELY
TILTED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND RIDGING FROM
LOUISIANA INTO MICHIGAN. PLENTIFUL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WATER
VAPOR WAS STREAMING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS SCT-BKN
CIRRUS. BELOW THESE CLOUDS...A DRY AIRMASS EXISTS AS SEEN ON A 00Z
700MB AND 850MB RAOB PLOT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-20C FROM
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING IN THE SAME AREA...HOWEVER...NOW ABOUT 5-15
DEGREES HIGHER. THIS INCREASE WAS DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY 925MB WIND
OF 40-55 KT FROM THE FORECAST AREA DOWN INTO TEXAS...HELPING TO
BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE WINDS ARE ALSO HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S. 925MB TEMPS WERE
ANALYZED PER RAP AT 08Z OF 9-13C...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 00Z RAOBS. TO
THE WEST...A 988MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF ALLIANCE NEBRASKA. A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EAST OF THIS LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS PUTS
THE SHOWERS ROOTED AROUND 600MB. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...500MB HEIGHT PROGS FROM MODELS ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL NOW...BOTH IN TIMING AND STRENGTH...FOR THE TRACK OF THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. OVERALL TREND
OVER THE PAST WEEK FROM MODELS WAS A SLOWER...DEEPER AND MORE
NORTHWEST TRACK. CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
WATERTOWN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE DULUTH MN AREA BY
12Z TUE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
TAKES NEARLY THE SAME ROUTE...WITH THE PRESSURE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE.
PRECIPITATION...THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE/500MB FEATURES ARE
GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH ALL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. IF THERE WAS MORE
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SAY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S...THIS MIGHT BE A DIFFERENT STORY. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 3 WAVES OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...
1. THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS LIFT LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE PLENTIFUL LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY MAKE IT TOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...OVERALL MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LESS AND LESS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...WITH
THE REGIONAL CANADIAN AND TO SOME DEGREE THE RAP EVEN SUGGESTING
DRY. HAVE LOWERED CHANCES TO 20-30 WITH THIS WAVE.
2. THE SECOND WAVE OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COMES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS COLD FRONT. THERES A GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A NARROW LINE OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR
I-35 NEAR 00Z...CORRELATING WELL WITH AN AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE 0-
2KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET.
31.00Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF 1 HOUR PERIOD OF THE SHOWERS...
WHERE ALSO CAPE ROOTED ABOVE 850MB CLIMBS TO 200-300 J/KG. THIS CAPE
AND FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
GIVEN LIKELY INVERTED-V SOUNDING AND 850MB WINDS OF 45-50 KT...THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE ISOLATED.
3. THE FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF SNOW
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE AND MORE NORTHWEST
WITH THE REACH OF THE COLD CONVEYOR. AS IT STANDS NOW...LOCATIONS
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AUSTIN MN TO WAUSAU WI LOOK TO SEE
THE SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE SNOW MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
AS SUCH...ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES...925MB READINGS ARE PROGGED TO MOSTLY HOLD IN THE 9-
13C RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WARMEST TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AT
TIME OF PEAK MIXING. THE WARMER START TO THE DAY PLUS LIMITED IMPACT
FROM PRECIPITATION WOULD SUPPORT A WARMER SCENARIO. IN ADDITION...IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN BOTH EARLY IN THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BREEZY SOUTH WIND AIDING IN ADVECTING
WARMER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH TOO...SEEMS LIKE A SITUATION TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. DO THINK...THOUGH...THE MET
SHOWING 70-71 FOR BLACK RIVER FALLS...WINONA AND BOSCOBEL IS A BIT
TOO AMBITIOUS. READINGS WILL REALLY TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. BY 12Z TUE...925MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED BETWEEN -5 AND -7C. A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.
WINDS...925MB WINDS OF 30-40 KT HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THESE SHOULD PICK UP TOWARDS 45 KT AS
THE LOW AND FRONT NEAR. THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THE DAYTIME MIXING PLUS ISALLOBARIC HELP SHOULD
PUSH WIND GUSTS TOWARDS THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. THEN WE HAVE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH
925MB WINDS ALSO 30-40 KT AIDED TOO BY A PRESSURE RISE. MUCH OF THIS
SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN...RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WITH MAYBE
SOME HIGHER ONES TOWARDS 45 MPH. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
MPX...DMX...DVN AND MKX...SETTLED ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOSTLY THE
COUNTIES ALONG/WEST OF US-52. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED EXPANSION TO
THE EAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI DURING THE DAY SHIFT. FOR NOW PUT
THESE COUNTIES IN AN SPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES AND WE REALLY NEED TO WATCH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY CLOSELY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER IN EXITING THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE
SPED UP THE EXITING OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT SNOW AND BRINGING IN
CLEARING QUICKER. WITH A FASTER EXIT...IT APPEARS THOSE LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SNOW WILL SEE VERY LITTLE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
START OFF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN WHERE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES...SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER
SHOT TO LIGHTEN UP THE WINDS COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90.
THE NEXT CONCERN ON THE HORIZON INVOLVES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SUBJECTIVELY...THAT TROUGH LOOKS A LOT
MEANER THAN THE ONE COMING INTO THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING THIS FEATURE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING RIDGING AND A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE BIG PROBLEM HERE IS THAT THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MOSTLY
OCCURS ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN EASTERLY FLOW
COMING OUT OF COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND ONTARIO. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE ALL INDICATING A LEAD WAVE OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IMPACTING MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE CONCERNS WITH A
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS TO IMPACT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN ADDITION...EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE
EASTERLY FLOW OF DRY AIR COMBINING WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAY SEND
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FORECAST INCLUDES A
VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TROUGH
WHICH THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE ALL TRENDING
TOWARDS THE DEEP ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS TROUGH LIFTS UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A MUCH DEEPER PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING WET SNOW...PARTICULARLY
OVER OUR NORTHWEST...TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
WI THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO SAY...RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
60-70 RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA AND INTO
THE REGION TODAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT KRST STANDS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO OUT OF THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES EAST AND RUNS INTO DRIER AIR. KLSE MAY
SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATER THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 18 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTS
RANGING FROM 27 TO 35 KTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KTS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO...A STRATUS DECK MAY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON POSES SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER.
DEWPOINTS ALSO SHOULD MIX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHICH SAW THAT HAPPEN YESTERDAY.
FUELS ALSO WERE ABLE TO DRY OUT SOME FROM YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY DROP TO A MINIMUM OF 35
PERCENT...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS.
ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COMING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT DRY AIR EXISTS BELOW THE CLOUD
BASES...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL.
THUS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS...SO IF A FIRE WOULD GET
STARTED...THE WIND COULD HELP IT SPREAD A LITTLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TREMPEALEAU...JACKSON AND CLARK
COUNTIES. BOTH THE BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO
THE SNOWMELT THAT HAS OCCURRED YESTERDAY THROUGH NOW. CONTINUED
RAPID SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FROM TEMPERATURES PEAKING UP
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL ALLOW THE RIVERS TO CONTINUE RISING.
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED SOMETIME
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ON THE BLACK SINCE THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER BASIN
MAY BE EXHAUSTED OF SNOWMELT. SHOULD BE A CLOSE CALL ON THE
TREMPEALEAU AT DODGE...THOUGH.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...CONCERN IS GROWING OF A
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD
CLOSELY. LUCKILY THERE ISNT GOING TO BE ANY SNOWMELT OVER THAT
AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ029-033-034.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
527 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED NICELY ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA ON RADAR. DESPITE THE NUMEROUS LOOKING COVERAGE...1
HOUR METAR OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL ONLY SHOWING MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS. RAP TRENDS ARE LOOKING MORE PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THOUGH...SO FELT IT IS WARRANTED
TO RAISE CHANCES SOME. RAP STILL DIMINISHES THE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH MAKES
SENSE AS IT RUNS INTO DRY AIR AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING MIXES OUT.
ALREADY INTRODUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER PRIOR TO 15Z
WEST OF HIGHWAY 52. LOOKS LIKE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WANES THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A VARIETY OF IMPACTS EXIST IN THE SHORT TERM FROM AN APPROACHING
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE. HAVE TRIED TO EXPLAIN THEM THE BEST IN
AN ORGANIZED FASHION BELOW.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH JUST OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST...A NEGATIVELY
TILTED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND RIDGING FROM
LOUISIANA INTO MICHIGAN. PLENTIFUL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WATER
VAPOR WAS STREAMING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS SCT-BKN
CIRRUS. BELOW THESE CLOUDS...A DRY AIRMASS EXISTS AS SEEN ON A 00Z
700MB AND 850MB RAOB PLOT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-20C FROM
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING IN THE SAME AREA...HOWEVER...NOW ABOUT 5-15
DEGREES HIGHER. THIS INCREASE WAS DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY 925MB WIND
OF 40-55 KT FROM THE FORECAST AREA DOWN INTO TEXAS...HELPING TO
BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE WINDS ARE ALSO HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S. 925MB TEMPS WERE
ANALYZED PER RAP AT 08Z OF 9-13C...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 00Z RAOBS. TO
THE WEST...A 988MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF ALLIANCE NEBRASKA. A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EAST OF THIS LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS PUTS
THE SHOWERS ROOTED AROUND 600MB. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...500MB HEIGHT PROGS FROM MODELS ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL NOW...BOTH IN TIMING AND STRENGTH...FOR THE TRACK OF THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. OVERALL TREND
OVER THE PAST WEEK FROM MODELS WAS A SLOWER...DEEPER AND MORE
NORTHWEST TRACK. CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
WATERTOWN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE DULUTH MN AREA BY
12Z TUE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
TAKES NEARLY THE SAME ROUTE...WITH THE PRESSURE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE.
PRECIPITATION...THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE/500MB FEATURES ARE
GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH ALL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. IF THERE WAS MORE
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SAY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S...THIS MIGHT BE A DIFFERENT STORY. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 3 WAVES OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...
1. THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS LIFT LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE PLENTIFUL LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY MAKE IT TOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...OVERALL MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LESS AND LESS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...WITH
THE REGIONAL CANADIAN AND TO SOME DEGREE THE RAP EVEN SUGGESTING
DRY. HAVE LOWERED CHANCES TO 20-30 WITH THIS WAVE.
2. THE SECOND WAVE OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COMES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS COLD FRONT. THERES A GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A NARROW LINE OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR
I-35 NEAR 00Z...CORRELATING WELL WITH AN AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE 0-
2KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET.
31.00Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF 1 HOUR PERIOD OF THE SHOWERS...
WHERE ALSO CAPE ROOTED ABOVE 850MB CLIMBS TO 200-300 J/KG. THIS CAPE
AND FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
GIVEN LIKELY INVERTED-V SOUNDING AND 850MB WINDS OF 45-50 KT...THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE ISOLATED.
3. THE FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF SNOW
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE AND MORE NORTHWEST
WITH THE REACH OF THE COLD CONVEYOR. AS IT STANDS NOW...LOCATIONS
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AUSTIN MN TO WAUSAU WI LOOK TO SEE
THE SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE SNOW MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
AS SUCH...ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES...925MB READINGS ARE PROGGED TO MOSTLY HOLD IN THE 9-
13C RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WARMEST TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AT
TIME OF PEAK MIXING. THE WARMER START TO THE DAY PLUS LIMITED IMPACT
FROM PRECIPITATION WOULD SUPPORT A WARMER SCENARIO. IN ADDITION...IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN BOTH EARLY IN THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BREEZY SOUTH WIND AIDING IN ADVECTING
WARMER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH TOO...SEEMS LIKE A SITUATION TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. DO THINK...THOUGH...THE MET
SHOWING 70-71 FOR BLACK RIVER FALLS...WINONA AND BOSCOBEL IS A BIT
TOO AMBITIOUS. READINGS WILL REALLY TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. BY 12Z TUE...925MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED BETWEEN -5 AND -7C. A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.
WINDS...925MB WINDS OF 30-40 KT HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THESE SHOULD PICK UP TOWARDS 45 KT AS
THE LOW AND FRONT NEAR. THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THE DAYTIME MIXING PLUS ISALLOBARIC HELP SHOULD
PUSH WIND GUSTS TOWARDS THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. THEN WE HAVE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH
925MB WINDS ALSO 30-40 KT AIDED TOO BY A PRESSURE RISE. MUCH OF THIS
SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN...RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WITH MAYBE
SOME HIGHER ONES TOWARDS 45 MPH. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
MPX...DMX...DVN AND MKX...SETTLED ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOSTLY THE
COUNTIES ALONG/WEST OF US-52. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED EXPANSION TO
THE EAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI DURING THE DAY SHIFT. FOR NOW PUT
THESE COUNTIES IN AN SPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES AND WE REALLY NEED TO WATCH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY CLOSELY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER IN EXITING THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE
SPED UP THE EXITING OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT SNOW AND BRINGING IN
CLEARING QUICKER. WITH A FASTER EXIT...IT APPEARS THOSE LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SNOW WILL SEE VERY LITTLE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
START OFF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN WHERE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES...SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER
SHOT TO LIGHTEN UP THE WINDS COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90.
THE NEXT CONCERN ON THE HORIZON INVOLVES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SUBJECTIVELY...THAT TROUGH LOOKS A LOT
MEANER THAN THE ONE COMING INTO THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING THIS FEATURE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING RIDGING AND A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE BIG PROBLEM HERE IS THAT THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MOSTLY
OCCURS ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN EASTERLY FLOW
COMING OUT OF COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND ONTARIO. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE ALL INDICATING A LEAD WAVE OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IMPACTING MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE CONCERNS WITH A
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS TO IMPACT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN ADDITION...EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE
EASTERLY FLOW OF DRY AIR COMBINING WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAY SEND
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FORECAST INCLUDES A
VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TROUGH
WHICH THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE ALL TRENDING
TOWARDS THE DEEP ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS TROUGH LIFTS UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A MUCH DEEPER PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING WET SNOW...PARTICULARLY
OVER OUR NORTHWEST...TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
WI THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO SAY...RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
60-70 RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014
SEVERAL DETAILS TO DEPICT IN THIS SET OF FORECASTS. THE FIRST IS
THE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS FOR MONDAY. ONCE THE INVERSION
BEGINS TO MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING...STRONG WIND SPEEDS WILL EXIST
IN THE MIXED LAYER TO GET BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE 31.00Z
NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO REACH INTO
THE MID 30 KNOT RANGE AT KRST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT KLSE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FAST MOVING ELEVATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF. NOT EXPECTING THESE TO LAST VERY LONG BUT FEEL THE
WINDS ARE MORE IMPORTANT FOR TIMING...SO WILL SHOW A LONGER WINDOW
OF A SHOWER CHANCE THAN WILL LIKELY OCCUR. A SECOND CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM...WILL COME AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE CAPE IS ONLY
ABOUT 200 J/KG FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AND CONFIDENCE ON THIS ACTUALLY
PRODUCING THUNDER IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. ONCE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT AND REMAIN GUSTY. GOOD
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON POSES SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER.
DEWPOINTS ALSO SHOULD MIX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHICH SAW THAT HAPPEN YESTERDAY.
FUELS ALSO WERE ABLE TO DRY OUT SOME FROM YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY DROP TO A MINIMUM OF 35
PERCENT...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS.
ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COMING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT DRY AIR EXISTS BELOW THE CLOUD
BASES...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL.
THUS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS...SO IF A FIRE WOULD GET
STARTED...THE WIND COULD HELP IT SPREAD A LITTLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TREMPEALEAU...JACKSON AND CLARK
COUNTIES. BOTH THE BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO
THE SNOWMELT THAT HAS OCCURRED YESTERDAY THROUGH NOW. CONTINUED
RAPID SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FROM TEMPERATURES PEAKING UP
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL ALLOW THE RIVERS TO CONTINUE RISING.
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED SOMETIME
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ON THE BLACK SINCE THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER BASIN
MAY BE EXHAUSTED OF SNOWMELT. SHOULD BE A CLOSE CALL ON THE
TREMPEALEAU AT DODGE...THOUGH.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...CONCERN IS GROWING OF A
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD
CLOSELY. LUCKILY THERE ISNT GOING TO BE ANY SNOWMELT OVER THAT
AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ029-033-034.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
327 PM PDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. TWO PERIODS OF WET WEATHER WILL OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
STORM EXITS TO THE EAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE-LADEN STORM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP
ROLLING THROUGH STANISLAUS COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO MERCED
COUNTY. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TRYING TO MOISTEN-UP...
PRECIP WILL BEGIN FALLING BEFORE 500 PM PDT. MOREOVER...WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING INTO SANTA CRUZ/SANTA CLARA...THE CHANCES
OF WET WEATHER HITTING MERCED ARE VERY GOOD. AHEAD OF TODAY/S COLD
FRONT...WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WILL EXPECT WINDS
TO WESTERLY WINDS TO REACH THE 35 TO 45 MPH SPEED THRESHOLD FOR
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE STRONG WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE LACK OF RAIN OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL MAKE BLOW DUST A BIG PROBLEM FROM RIDGECREST TO
ROSAMOND AND BORON. THE HRRR MESOSCALE MODEL HAS THE WINDS
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL AT AROUND 200 PM PDT AND ENDING AT
AROUND 10 PM PDT TONIGHT.
BEYOND THE WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM...RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE DISTRICT TONIGHT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC
MODELS TIME THE ONSET OF PRECIP TO NEAR 400 PM PDT...WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CURRENT ESTIMATES
HAVE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE VALLEY
AND 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET.
WHILE SNOW MAY NOT STICK TO THE ROAD OVER TEJON PASS...THE
GRAPEVINE WAS INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLICK
ROADS MAKING DRIVING DIFFICULT.
AFTER TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT...THE MAIN AREA OF ENERGY MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING 500MB TEMP OF
MINUS 28 DEG-C PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S
COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK WIND
SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO TEMPORARY DRY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER
STORM. WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SEE THE LAST OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS
WITH RIDGING EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE CURRENT LONGER RANGE
PROGS SHOW THE THIRD STORM MOVING FURTHER NORTH...SOME OF ITS
ENERGY COULD REACH THE DISTRICT. CURRENTLY...WILL PLACE A MENTION
OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DISTRICT AND ACROSS
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE NEXT STORM AND
FINALIZE THIS NEXT STORM AFTERWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA BY 03Z TUE WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN 03Z TUE AND 00Z WED. MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND
ALONG THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS FROM 03Z
TUESDAY...CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z WED OVER MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
BLOWING DUST...WITH VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW A MILE AT TIMES...IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER
WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND IN KERN COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SIERRA
CREST THIS EVENING.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 03-31 89:1966 50:1967 58:1986 31:1905
KFAT 04-01 90:1966 49:1982 56:1939 32:1975
KFAT 04-02 87:1985 56:1907 57:2011 34:1982
KBFL 03-31 90:2003 50:1925 60:1969 32:1908
KBFL 04-01 88:2011 54:1998 62:1900 32:1917
KBFL 04-02 90:1985 57:1981 60:2002 35:1999
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
TUESDAY CAZ096-097.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PDT
TUESDAY CAZ095.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ095.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ089-091.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...BSO/INIGUEZ
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1123 AM PDT Mon Mar 31 2014
.Synopsis...
A cold Pacific storm will bring more precipitation to Interior
NorCal into Wednesday with snow levels lowering into the foothills
tonight into Tuesday. There is the threat of some Valley/Delta
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening and again on Tuesday. Later
this week, a weak system moves through the region and may bring
some light amounts of precipitation.
&&
.Discussion...
Cold negative tilt trough with a surface cold front is moving
onshore this morning with precipitation spreading through the
Coastal Mountains and into the rest of the area by this afternoon.
Afternoon/evening thunderstorms in the Valley and Delta are
possible. Lightning and visible satellite shows convection already just
off the coast of Monterrey this morning. Some stronger storms are beginning
to develop right along the coast. Early afternoon thunderstorms may
develop with the front.
Low level shear behind the front by late afternoon looks
relatively strong in the Valley south of Red Bluff, so there is
some potential for stronger, rotating storms in the post frontal
environment. HRRR model shows a surface Cape bullseye around 350
J/KG, centered roughly around Yuba City. Spotters should be aware
of the possibility of some isolated severe thunderstorms late in
the day/early evening. Small hail with these cold storms would be
the main threat, with locally heavy rain and gusty winds. With
decent shear, can not rule out the possibility of a few funnel
clouds and even an isolated tornado isn`t out of the question.
Winter Storm Warnings for the mountains and advisory for low snow
in the foothills is on track. Snow should peak over the coastal
mountains this afternoon, this evening over the Sierra. Snow
totals of 1-2 feet are possible at higher elevations.
Convective threat will continue across the region Tuesday, and
appears there will be a conditional severe weather threat once
again for the Central Valley depending on any localized surface
heating as forecast soundings show increasing vertical wind shear
(speed and directional), however ongoing widespread convection
with mid-level cold pool aloft overhead (-30C to -32C at 500 mbs)
may greatly limit this potential.
Upper trough forecast to shift south of the region later Tuesday
night into Wednesday with a decreasing threat of showers across
NorCal. Short-wave ridging forecast to briefly move over NorCal
Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of a much weaker trough moving
in for later Thursday.
&&
.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
Models differ with strength of short wave trough/low progged to move
across the area on Friday. ECMWF-HiRes showing a stronger close
upper low while the GFS/GEM progging a weaker trough. Have leaned
towards the ADJMRA for this time period for now, advertising slight
chance to chance POPs, with best chances of precip expected over
the mountains. Models then similar in building upper ridging from
EPAC over Interior NorCal through the weekend into Monday with dry
weather and warming. High temperatures climb into the mid to upper
70s in the Central Valley towards the end of the extended period
with 50s to low 70s for the mountains and foothills.
&&
.Aviation...
Deteriorating conditions today as a cold frontal system moves
into the area bringing precipitation and gusty winds. For the TAF
sites in the Central Valley VFR/MVFR conditions with areas of IFR
developing aft 18a. Isold Thunderstorms possible after 22z.
Southerly surface wind to 25kts with local gusts up to 35 kts until
03z Tuesday. Over Coastal and Shasta Mountains widespread MVFR/IFR
with areas of LIFR conditions and snow levels around 3000 feet
lowering to around 2000 ft aft 06z Tuesday. Over Northern Sierra
and Western Plumas County IFR/LIFR conditions with snow levels
around 4000 ft lowering to around 2500 ft aft 06z Tuesday.
Southwest surface wind gusts up to 50 kts possible.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter storm warning until 11 am pdt tuesday west slope northern
sierra nevada...western plumas county/lassen park.
winter storm warning until 5 am pdt tuesday above 3500 feet in
the mountains southwestern shasta county to northern lake
county...shasta lake area / northern shasta county.
winter weather advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 5 am pdt
tuesday burney basin / eastern shasta county.
winter weather advisory from 8 pm this evening to 11 am pdt
tuesday above 2500 feet in the clear lake/southern lake county...
motherlode...northeast foothills/sacramento valley.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014/
ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR LOWER DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. VERY DRY JUST OFF THE SURFACE...AND WITH MIXING
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. MAV/MET APPEAR TOO HIGH IN
DEWPOINTS AND THE LATEST RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLING AT
THE MIXING.
17
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014/
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME ON TUESDAY AS THE WEAK TRAILING END OF A SHORT WAVE
PASSES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORT WAVE HAS LIMITED MOISTURE..SO
EXPECT NO RAIN WITH IT BUT MAYBE SOME CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MAV/MET TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND HAVE NOT DEVIATED
MUCH. FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.
41
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH LATE WEEK. STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM
IN TERMS OF BOTH THE POSITIONING OF FEATURES AND TIMING. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SFC LOW AND QUICKER WITH PUSHING
THE FRONT THROUGH. BOTH MODELS BRING THE PRECIP IN ON FRIDAY BUT
THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND DOESNT PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON
SATURDAY AND THUS THE GFS APPEARS TO INDICATE A FRIDAY AFTERNOON
TO SATURDAY EVENT IN TERMS OF THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. FORECAST
TRENDS TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. GFS SHOWS THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY FRIDAY EVENING WITH 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NW GA.
IN ADDITION IT PEGS AROUND 30 KTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS N GA.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR WITH THE SYSTEM DECREASES...INSTABILITY IS
ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEED TO BE MONITORED.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
/ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2014/
FUELS HAVE DRIED AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIP TO 25 PERCENT
OR LESS FOR AROUND 4 HOURS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS MAY BE BORDERLINE FOR HUMIDITY.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TO NEAR CALM WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST. CIRRUS WILL THICKEN ACROSS
NORTH GA TONIGHT AND THEN EXIT TUESDAY MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 46 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 74 52 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 73 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 75 43 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 75 47 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 73 49 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
MACON 75 41 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
ROME 75 43 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 75 40 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 77 49 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
301 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WAS OVER
NORTHEAST NE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A BAND OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS IT REACHED THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE
DRY/CLEAR SLOT OVER MUCH OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW N/S
ORIENTED CU FIELD JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST STARTING
TO DEVELOP AROUND 19Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN WI BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING.
STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING THEN TURN WESTERLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER NIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE LOW WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THE
STRONGER PRESSURE RISES WILL ALSO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT SO WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY.
MESO MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY IN SHOWING A SECOND LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE DRY
SLOT OVER CENTRAL IOWA...ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE MODELS BRING THE
PRECIPITATION EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE CU DEVELOPMENT
ONGOING OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH WEAK SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED CAPES. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE
LINE. IF THIS OCCURS THEN THE STRONGER STORMS MAY HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONSIDERING THE STRONG
ENVIRONMENT WINDS AND DEEP/DRY SUB CLOUD BASE LAYER. LOW WEB BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 7KFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME SUB SEVERE HAIL.
THE THREAT OF THE STRONGER STORMS IS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SINCE THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS IT
NEARS THE MISSISSIPPI.
COLDER AIR POURING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD LATE TONIGHT AND LIFT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY BASED ON
MIXING UP TO 900MB.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
FORECAST FOCUS ON ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN WITH STRONG SYSTEM MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ONE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY...AN INTENSE DIGGING UPPER LOW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
LOOPS SWIRLING OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS HAS A 130 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR
CUMULUS...INDICATIVE OF A VERY COLD POCKET ALOFT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE IN
SOUTHEAST CO. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE WITH AN EXCELLENT FEED OFF
THE WESTERN GULF. WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO CENTRAL MO SETTING
UP AN IDEAL UPGLIDE OF THE DEEPENING MOISTURE...AND ALLOWING FOR RAIN
TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER ALL THE CWA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. I WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGH POPS WHICH HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT
SIGNAL FOR DAYS NOW. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE RAIN ON THURSDAY AS
THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT. OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THIS REGARD. COPIOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS TRENDING A BIT SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF TAKES THE CENTER OF THE STRONG
CYCLONE INTO EASTERN IA TO NORTHERN LAKE MI WHILE THE GFS HAS THE
LOW TRACKING INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA AND THEN TO NEAR CHICAGO.
EITHER SOLUTION OFFERS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME THE DEFORMATION ZONE
PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE DVN CWA.
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS TO
3 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. (WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE FROST IS PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE GROUND SO AS
TO ALLOW THE RAIN TO SOAK IN...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO ISSUES).
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODERATING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY WITH THE WEEKEND DRY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WELL
ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY (ECMWF)...BUT
MUCH WEAKER (GFS). IF THE LATEST RUNS VERIFY THEN TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK MAY BE TOO WARM AND THE ALL BLEND WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK AWAY.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP
STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 30 TO
35KTS WILL BE COMMON. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 COULD SEE GUSTS
EXCEED 40KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 03Z.
THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBSY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS EVENING WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND WILL REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1122 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY FROM
RAWLINS...RED WILLOW...SHERIDAN AND DECATUR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THERE IS NOTICEABLE STREAKS OF DUST EVIDENT OVER
THESE COUNTIES. EXPECT THE LOW VISIBILITIES TO PROGRESS EAST INTO
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES THIS MORNING SO CHOSE TO INCLUDE THEM
IN THE DUST STORM WARNING AS WELL. ALSO INCLUDED HITCHCOCK COUNTY
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OF DUST STEAKS. WOULD EXPECT THE DUST
TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER WINDS MOVE
FURTHER EAST.
THE WORST VISIBILITIES WILL BE SOUTH OF TILLED FIELDS AND DIRT
ROADS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 811 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
EXPANDED HIGH WIND WARNING TO INCLUDE NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
SINCE NORTON IS CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 53 KNOTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE HAD AT ATLEAST A COUPLE REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
THIS MORNING...ONE AT WRAY ABOUT 90 MINUTES AGO AND ANOTHER AT
ATWOOD ABOUT 11 MINUTES AGO. HAVE ALSO HAD 2 REPORTS JUST UNDER
WARNING CRITERIA...ONE AT YUMA AND ANOTHER AT MCCOOK. THESE REPORTS
DO MAKE SINCE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE 500MB TROUGH WHICH HAS ITS
BASE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH IS
WHERE THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE WILL BE. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA SINCE THE BASE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE THAT FAR SOUTH. ALSO EXCLUDED NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES SINCE THE 500MB TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST BEFORE IT
GETS TO THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
EXPECT WINDS TO DECLINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER
WINDS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL MORE THAN LIKELY DOWNGRADE THE
CURRENT WARNING TO AN ADVISORY BY THEN...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY KEPT
THE DURATION OF THE WARNING THE SAME AS THE ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
HAVE ADJUSTED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY 2 HOURS SOONER
(BASICALLY NOW) GIVEN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH 1W YUMA AND 49 MPH IN
WRAY AT THE AWOS.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE. RUC 800MB WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH
50-60KTS THROUGH 17Z OR SO ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS AREA ALSO UNDER MORE CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD
LIMIT FULL MIXING BUT ON THE OTHER HAND RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA SO THE STRONGER WINDS MAY COME FROM THAT.
WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT WRAY
AWOS (K2V5).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. A SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE WINDS AND THREAT OF
BLOWING DUST. BLENDED MAV/MET/LAMP WINDS ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM
LOCAL WIND PROGRAM. THIS IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
36KT TO 46KT RANGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS WE ARE
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA (50KTS) GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
KS/NE BORDER. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALREADY ADVERTISED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST ACROSS THE EAST
AND SOUTHERLY PARTS OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
AM CONCERNED A BIT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER DESPITE SFC HIGH NOSING INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL CREATE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND LEOTI WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE CO/KS
BORDER. WINDS BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
NARROW SLIVER OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
FEEL THAT THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
YUMA COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST...UPPER
50S WITH LOW 60S ACROSS THE WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WEST TO
MID 30S EAST.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOCUS NOW TURNS TO UPPER TROUGH WHICH
BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH DAY THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A BIT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN A TRANSITION
TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. ANY ACCUMULATION LOOKS
TO BE UNDER AN INCH AT PRESENT TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GFS/GEFS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TROUGH PASSAGE THU...WHILE GEM IS STILL
SLOWER/STRONGER/FURTHER NORTH. FINER DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER OVERALL TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF PRECIP AND COOLER
TEMPS. I BUMPED POPS UP (50 PERCENT NORTH) AND LOWERED HIGHS
(40-45F). BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CAA...AND POSSIBLE CLOUDS/PRECIP
THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS TEMP
PROFILES WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SATURATION TO WET BULB TEMP WOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIX OR COMPLETE SNOW CHANGEOVER THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. I TIED RAIN/SNOW MIX TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR SIMPLICITY
SAKE...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO FINE TUNE THIS AS WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON DAYTIME TEMPS AND AXIS OF PRECIP. THIS CHANGE OVER
ALSO IMPACTS SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH ALL SNOW POSSIBLY PUTTING US WITHIN
ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF I-70 (3-5"). CURRENT FORECAST IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS SINCE IT IS FAVORING MORE OF A MIX/LIQUID
EVENT...JUST ANOTHER THING WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION
TO SPLIT FLOW...SHIFTING THE NORTHERN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH AND
EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT. WE SHOULD
ALSO SEE A RETURN OF SEASONAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IS ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY WHEN ECMWF
SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK
AND MOVES THIS TROUGH FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS KS. GFS IS WEAKER AND
FAVORS SUNDAY FOR PRECIP CHANCES. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
DURING THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
SOME MVFR CIG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AT KMCK DUE TO BLOWING DUST NEARBY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2014
TODAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
40 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
APPROACHING 15 PERCENT. RIGHT NOW AM JUST ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD
NEEDED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITE. WINDS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 40 TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.
TUESDAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES (GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON) FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET. CURRENTLY HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DOWN TO 16-17%. THESE LOW VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001-013-014.
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-
015-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ027>029-041-042.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090-091.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ092.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS
FIRE WEATHER...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
108 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE TODAY...BEFORE FINALLY PULLING
AWAY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...SPREADING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1PM UPDATE...
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS FINALLY SHIFTED OFFSHORE. ANOTHER AREA
OF PRECIPITATION IS BLOSSOMING JUST OFF THE COAST AND MOVING INTO
EASTERN MAINE. THIS MAY AFFECT THE MIDCOAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA.
10AM UPDATE...
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED A BIT AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD. HAVE REMOVED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR AREAS
BEHIND THE BAND. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE REMAINING ADVISORY AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET THEN TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS AROUND NOON.
830AM UPDATE...
NARROW BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET / FREEZING RAIN / RAIN CONTINUES TO
PERSIST OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. SOME SNOW WAS NOTED ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE BAND AT
WISCASSET AND AUGUSTA. TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT NOTED ON THE GYX
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED SLEET SOUNDING WITH
A LARGE INVERSION TO +6 C AT AROUND 800 MB WITH A STEEP COOLING TO
AROUND -6 C AT 900 MB. AS THE DAY GOES ON... EXPECT THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT TO SHIFT EAST... SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SLEET
AND SNOW WITH LESS FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH.
7AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATE THE GRIDS TO HIT THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DRIVING
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AND MORE TREACHEROUS. ICE ACCRETION WILL
BE A QUARTER TO NEARLY A HALF INCH IN THIS REGION.
HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND FLOOD
WATCHES IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UP TO A QUICK INCH OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS YESTERDAY. LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS THIS PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERY WELL. MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL/MIX WILL BE DISSIPATING AROUND 16Z.
AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN LIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THIS PACKAGE.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STRONG...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STUBBORN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING TO FINALLY TAKE PLACE. SUNSHINE
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE BACK TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF
GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON BROAD WESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS PERIOD...THAT KEEPS ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES EMERGE AFTER THURSDAY WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. IN THE DAILIES...A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ONE LAST ROUND OF LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS AND
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...
WED...SCT MVFR IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT - SUN...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY GALES EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOW TO PULL AWAY.
LONG TERM...
THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
405 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A pretty potent surface low resides just north of the forecast area
in southern Minnesota, however the pressure gradient associated with
that low remains strong over the forecast area, producing strong
southwest winds. Good mixing through the day and a dry southwesterly
component has caused RH values to drop to around 30 percent, with
some very localized areas dropping to the lower 20 percent range,
especially in far western Missouri. Surface observations indicate
that a cold front currently sits across far NW Missouri. This cold
front will continue to push S/SE through the area over the next
several hours, causing winds to switch from the southwest to the
west/northwest overnight. While the initial winds behind the front
will be somewhat gusty, expect a general decline in winds through
the overnight hours. HRRR has been somewhat consistent in producing
some signals for isolated to scattered convection along the cold
front in the 23z to 03z time frame across C Missouri, but given the
weak signal and forecast soundings showing a struggle to get
saturation, will only go out with low end chance PoPs for C Missouri
in the evening time frame. Should a thunderstorm get going along the
front the dry low levels of the atmosphere bring about a sort of
inverted-V sounding. While the overall potential is very low, there
could be an outside chance at a damaging wind gust or two if any
storm gets healthy along the front. Once the cold front clears the
area expect the chances for precipitation to trend toward no chance.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
On Tuesday evening, a deepening trough across the western CONUS and
southerly low-level flow off the Gulf will allow for wetter weather
through the remainder of the work week. A slow-moving warm front
will lift into the area and stall somewhere around the vicinity of
I-70, resulting in several rounds of thunderstorms, some possibly
strong to severe, for Tuesday night through Thursday.
A few isolated thunderstorms should begin to develop on Tuesday
evening as the low-level jet begins to increase and the frontal
boundary begins to edge into the region. The most widespread
convection is expected after 06z, and should be elevated in nature.
Hail is possible with any robust elevated storms that develop, but
widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
The main challenge for severe potential Wednesday will be the
presence and influence of morning convection across the region.
Without any real feature to sweep out nighttime convection, rain
showers and cloud cover may prevent strong instability from
developing. Shear profiles, particularly along the warm front, will
be very supportive of severe weather, and any storms that develop
will have the potential to be severe. Right now the area near the
warm front looks like it could remain very capped, but any clearing
will likely result in explosive storm development, especially along
and south of I-70.
Model differences increase on Thursday night into Friday with the
position of the surface low and associated front, which will
strongly impact severe weather chances. For now, have trended the
higher PoPs towards the southeastern corner of the CWA, but will
need to adjust as models come better into focus. Morning convection
could again impact instability, but with the strong front sweeping
through, storms are likely along and ahead of the boundary during
the afternoon and early evening hours.
Slightly cooler conditions and quieter weather is expected for the
weekend and into early next week. A few showers are possible for
Sunday night into Monday, but significant precipitation is not
expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
Gusty southwest winds will continue through the rest of the day time
hours. A cold front with a wind shift to the west then northwest will
move through later this evening. Best potential for evening
thunderstorms will be east of the terminals tonight, so expect no
impact from late afternoon/evening convection.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
Strong southwesterly winds continue across the entire area, however
portions of NW Missouri may see a gradual change from southwesterly
winds to more of a westerly then northwesterly direction this
evening. This wind shift will work its way southeastward through the
evening hours. A few scattered showers may pop up along the cold
front later this evening, but expect showery activity to be rather
sparse and localize. If convective activity affects areas with active
fires they could produce some erratic wind behavior. Some lightning
may occur with these showers, so fire personnel will need to be aware
of possible lightning with any storm that forms this evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-
011>013-020-021-028-029-037.
WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-
020>022-028>030-037-043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Leighton
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton
FIRE WEATHER...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
STARTING TO GET CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM VALLEY CITY TO
THIEF RIVER FALLS...OR IN OTHER WORDS THUNDERSNOW (SEE LATEST
SWOMCD FROM SPC FOR MESOSCALE DETAILS). THIS FITS IN WITH WHAT WE
WERE EXPECTING AND HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR IN OUR FORECAST. THIS
THUNDERSNOW IS WHAT WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE LOCALIZED 20 INCHES THAT
SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE.
DID INCREASE SNOWFALL INTO THE 10-12 INCH RANGE FOR VALLEY CITY
AND NORTHWARD DUE TO THE OBSERVED LIGHTNING.
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SNOWBAND IS DRYING ON RADAR...AND
DECREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS AREA. ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT THE
SHARP CUT-OFF IN THE FORECAST...BUT THAT IS DIFFICULT.
LATEST (15Z) HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES AN AREA OF DYING CONVECTION
MOVING INTO THE FERGUS FALLS...WADENA...PARK RAPIDS...AND POSSIBLY
THE BEMIDJI AREA. THE CONCERN HERE CONTINUES TO BE THAT COLD
(BELOW FREEZING) SURFACE AIR WILL UNDERCUT THIS RAINFALL...LEADING
TO MORE SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN. MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF UP TO
0.20 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA...AND
WILL ATTEMPT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS FOR THIS SITUATION IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE EXTREME
BLIZZARD WORDING IN THE HEADLINES APPEARS RELEVANT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
SORRY FOR THE LATE DISCUSSION TODAY. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS
EVENT IS UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED. THE HEAVY SNOW BAND HAS SET UP
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
ANTICIPATE THAT THIS HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME...AND THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION EASTWARD AS THE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD (INTO THE AFTERNOON THE SFC
LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION PROPAGATING NORTH/NORTHEAST). THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA WHERE THE BAND WILL BE
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL THINKING 10-15
INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES. LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH (AND THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FA WHERE DRY AIR
ADVECTING FROM THE NORTH IS CAUSING A SHARP CUT OFF IN SNOW
AMOUNTS). THIS IS ALL IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING...SO ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WHERE NEEDED. SEE OUR LSR REPORTS FOR THE LATEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
WINDS ARE UNFOLDING AS FORECASTED...AND VSBY IS LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER MILE WHERE THERE IS FALLING SNOW. IT IS A BLIZZARD.
THERE WAS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WITH AROUND 0.10 INCH ICE REPORTED. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
AS WE APPROACH THE EVENING HOURS (AND THE SFC LOW/FORCING
APPROACHES) EXPECT PRECIP (POSSIBLY DYING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTH) TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA. MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
WOULD FALL AS RAIN...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW FREEZING (ALTHOUGH
THESE TWO FACTORS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN). THUS...DID INCREASE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN HERE THIS EVENING...WITH
ACCUMULATION UP TO 0.20 INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
CHALLENGES ABOUND WITH WINTER STORM TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCLUDING
BUT NOT LIMITED TO PRECIP LOCATION/PHASE/AMOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES. GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE FINALLY LOCKED ONTO AN
AGREEABLE SOLUTION...BUT WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON LATEST RAP/HRRR FOR
THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS.
SFC LOW AT 08 UTC ACROSS CENTRAL NE WILL MOVE OVER SIOUX FALLS SD
BY 18 UTC AND THEN TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES BY 00 UTC. INITIAL
DEFORMATION SNOW BAND EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SET UP ALONG A LINE
FROM DICKINSON TO HARVEY TO GRAFTON. RAP/HRRR KEEP THIS PRECIP
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
STRENGTHENS...PRECIP DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE ROBUST ACROSS A
WIDER SWATH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND BY
MID-AFTERNOON ALONG A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO GRAND FORKS TO
WARROAD. IN ADDITION...ANY PRECIP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX GIVEN 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0 C. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW IN FARGO AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND NOT UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN. FINE-TUNED SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON
THIS THINKING WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF 10 INCHES OR MORE FROM NEW
ROCKFORD TO GRAFTON TO WARROAD. FARTHER SOUTH FROM VALLEY CITY TO
ADA TO BEMIDJI EXPECT 6 TO 10 INCHES AND ONLY 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE OVER SHORT DISTANCES GIVEN THE NATURE OF THIS WINTER
STORM.
WINDS AT 08 UTC ACROSS EASTERN ND ALREADY SUSTAINED FROM 20 TO 30
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING
FROM 40 TO 50 KTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BEGINS TO FALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. WHETHER AN AREA RECEIVES 2 INCHES OR 12 INCHES OF SNOW...
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS BY THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY RESULTING IN
NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES.
ALTHOUGH CURRENT START-TIMES ON HEADLINES MAY BE 3 TO 6 HOURS
EARLY DEPENDING ON THE PART OF THE COUNTY (NORTHWEST VS SOUTHEAST)...
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES EXCEPT TO UPGRADE BLIZZARD WATCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. ALTHOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS...
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN VALLEY AFTER 18 UTC AND AFTER 00 UTC ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MN. ALL HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 12 UTC TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
VERY COLD FOR APRIL FOOLS DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
20S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE FRESH SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THU-FRI
PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOWS TO FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN
ESP IF ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT. IT HAS HELD ONTO A BIT FARTHER
NORTHWEST TRACK THE PAST FEW DAYS COMPARED TO THE GFS. AT THE
PRESENT BASED ON ECMWF GREAT HANDLING OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM WILL
FAVOR IT AND THAT IS WHAT THE ALL BLEND POPS DO IT APPEARS. AFTER
THIS PASSES A BIT WARMER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
STEADIEST SNOW SO FAR HAS MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO KDVL AND KGFK. AS
THE AFTERNOON GOES ON EXPECT IT TO PICK UP AT KTVF/KFAR BUT WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE LONGEST AT KBJI. SEEMS LIKE ONCE THE SNOW MOVES IN
VSBYS QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS WINDS ARE ALREADY QUITE STRONG. WILL GO
AHEAD AND LEAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE AT KDVL AND THEN BY MID MORNING IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. NOT SURE HOW FAST VSBYS WILL IMPROVE IN THE MORNING
SINCE WINDS WILL STILL BE BLOWING BUT GENERALLY THEY SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE THE SNOW STOPS FALLING AND CLOUDS
DEPART VSBYS ARE BOUND TO IMPROVE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ052-053.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-054.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ029.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
009-013>017-022>024-027-028.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ030-040.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR MNZ031-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1224 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE DRY SLOT AT THIS TIME...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
BLUSTERY WINDS. DID GO AHEAD AND WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL
DEGREES IN THE DRY SLOT...WITH 60S AND 70S LIKELY. COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CRASHING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...EXPECTING ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TO STAY EAST OF OUR
CWA. BEGINNING TO SEE ELEVATED CONVECTION GO ON THE EDGE OF THE DRY
SLOT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND
BECOMES DEEPER IN THIS AREA...A BIT WORRIED THIS COULD BECOME THE
DOMINANT BAND OF SNOW...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PRESENT. LATEST NAM....HRRR AND RAP ARE IN FACT HINTING AT THIS. SO
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BUMP
SNOWFALL TOTALS UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING...AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SECOND AREA OF SNOW MAKES IT. WITH
THE VERY STRONG WINDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CREATE ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
AT THIS TIME...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FINALLY THE MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN HOW THEY TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THAT SAID...THERE ARE STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE WHICH ARE KEY TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE OF COURSE. STILL PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
AND GEM FOR BOTH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
DYNAMICALLY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN PORTION OF THE
UPPER WAVE LIFTING WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS SUIT...AND WILL LIKELY TAKE A TRACK FROM
GREGORY COUNTY SD...TO NEAR MARSHALL MN TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRY SLOT FOR MANY OF OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF TODAY.
CURRENTLY HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
HEADING INTO NORTHWEST IA ALONG THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND POSITIVE THETA E ADVECTION...AND WILL LIKELY EXIT OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES BEFORE MID MORNING ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF REDEVELOPMENT. THE PV SURGE ON THE 1.5 SURFACE
REVEALS DEEPENING TO AROUND 500MB IN NORTHWEST IA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH IS PRETTY STRONG. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PERSISTENT
AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT TODAY...THEN GETS CUTOFF FIRST IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE STRONG PV SURGE MOVES EASTWARD...AND THE
SURFACE FRONT GETS OCCLUDED. SO BY AFTERNOON...THE ONLY REMAINING
ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST MN AS NORTHWEST IA
GETS UNDERCUT WITH STABILIZED AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM FOR A WHILE TODAY IN OUR EAST...
RAPIDLY COOLING HEADING WESTWARD. DID NOT NEED TO ALTER HIGHS MUCH
FROM THE LAST FORECAST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY VARYING
UP TO AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES FROM CHAMBERLAIN TO SIOUX CITY AND
STORM LAKE.
CONCERNING THE WINTER WEATHER...OPTED TO TAKE THE ZONES WHICH WERE
IN THE BLIZZARD WATCH AND PLACED THEM IN A BLIZZARD WARNING.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...NOT A TON OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...RANGING IN
THE WARNING AREA OF ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES. THAT SAID...WE NEED TO
WATCH OUR ZONES IN EAST CENTRAL SD...ESPECIALLY FROM HURON TO
KINGSBURY COUNTY FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THINGS MAY COME
TOGETHER IN EAST CENTRAL SD FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WHEN TROWALING AT THE 300 TO 305K LAYER IS STRONG
COUPLED WITH VERY ABUNDANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS ABUNDANT EVERYWHERE...BUT OUR FAR WESTERN AND FAR
NORTHERN ZONES IS WHERE THIS INSTABILITY CAN TAP INTO THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE PROFILE. SO ADMITTEDLY THIS IS BOTHERSOME...AND HELPED TO
DECIDE WHETHER TO GO BLIZZARD WARNING IN THOSE AREAS AS OPPOSED TO
AN ADVISORY. FURTHERMORE...SOUNDINGS SHOW A DENDRITIC PROFILE
GENERALLY FROM NEAR CHAMBERLAIN TO DE SMET SD...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE BIG SNOW FLAKES FOR ABOUT A 3 OR 4 HOUR WINDOW. SO SOMETHING
FOR THE DAY CREW TO WATCH FOR CONCERNING SNOW AMOUNTS IN THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE SPRING CAN ALWAYS ACCUMULATE IN A BIG HURRY.
ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA...WE WILL KEEP OUR
ADVISORY GOING AS DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHUT OFF RAPIDLY. STILL...
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SNOW TO INTERFERE WITH TRAVEL WHEN WINDS ARE
30 TO 45 MPH...AND IN SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...MIXED
LAYER WINDS ARE CLOSE TO 50 MPH. TEMPERATURES BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST...GIVING A RAPID CHANGEOVER FROM ANY LIGHT RAIN
OVER TO SNOW. EVENTUALLY...THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR EASTERN
ZONES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I 90...VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN TUESDAY AS THE STRING SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL MOMENTARILY DECREASE...BUT
WITH THE EXIT OF THE CURRENT STORM SO FAR NORTHEAST SO QUICKLY...
THE UPPER FLOW BACKS AROUND TO SOUTHWEST ALREADY BY LATE TUESDAY AND
WEAK WAVES BRING PATCHES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION BUT A THERMAL GRADIENT QUICKLY REFORMS ALOFT JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE THREAT OF A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD
SLOWLY REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...THOUGH WITH A LITTLE
WARMING WEDNESDAY.
DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROUGH IS PRESENTING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR A
MAJOR PRECIPITATION SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE EC AS USUAL ID THE STRONGEST AND IS FAVORED HERE. IT SHOULD
HANDLE THE DYNAMICS OF THE THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENTS BETTER
THAN THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM. ANYWAY...BESIDES THE
ANTICIPATED TRACK...WHAT GIVES THIS SYSTEM SO MUCH POTENTIAL IS A
HUGE DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS STREAMING INTO THE
SYSTEM...IN CONTRAST TO THE RELATIVELY DRY INFLOW TO THE CURRENT
STORM. THIS WILL PRESENT THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY...WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE
INFLOW INTO THE AREA TO BE LIMITED BY CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IS
THERE...BUT DWARFED BY THE HUGE GENERAL MOISTURE INFLOW. THE CURRENT
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING WAY TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY DRYING TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...SO THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY DOWN THERE WILL JUST
BE GETTING STEADILY RICHER FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE
STRONG EC WHICH BRINGS SO MUCH MOISTURE INFLOW AND WARMTH INTO THE
SYSTEM ALSO KEEPS IT COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...AND THE
DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM CAN ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE WET SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN.
YES...THIS STORM COULD WIND UP TRACKING EVEN FURTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST
THAN THE CURRENT EC SOLUTION AND THIS COULD AFFECT PRECIP TYPE...
THOUGH IT SEEMS PRETTY MUCH GUARANTEED THAT IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE CURRENT STORM. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET SNOW TO MAKE SURE THAT POTENTIAL IS KNOWN.
ALSO..A FURTHER NORTHWEST TRACK IN THIS THURSDAY SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY
TO DEVOID ANY PART OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE RICH
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. EVEN WITH THE WEAKER AMERICAN
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE MOISTURE INFLOW IS STILL THERE TO BRING PLENTY
OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
WILL BE GOING OF COURSE FOR TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME...TO
BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME WINDS LOOK TO PEAK MODESTLY STRONG...SO WOULD NOT EMPHASIZE ANY
BLIZZARD POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME BUT WOULD NOT RULE IT OUT.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE DAY THE SYSTEM IS PULLING OUT. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE ROOM FOR SOME WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS WHAT WE HAD WITH THE WEEKEND JUST PAST. ALSO...THERE DOES
SEEM TO BE A RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER
SUPPORT IN A REDEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THESE DETAILS COULD
CHANGE WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR ANOTHER MAJOR
SYSTEM SOON AFTER THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ONE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A POTENT EARLY SPRING STORM
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN AND SLEET WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW QUICKLY
AS COLDER AIR WRAPS BEHIND THE LOW. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AS THE RAIN TURNS TO SNOW. SNOW MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES....WITH LOCALLY LIFR CEILINGS AND VIS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND INTO THE
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WITH LIFT CONDITIONS IS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
PICKSTOWN TO MADISON TO MARSHALL. THIS INCLUDES THE KHON TAF. WINDS
WILL BE AN ONGOING CONCERN AS WELL WITH 25 TO 35 KT SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS TO 50 KT. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SHARPLY
TURN NORTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE...WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KT BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REACH THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY
THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST IOWA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE QUITE
STRONG AT 25 TO 40 MPH. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS WILL HELP TO RAISE
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 30 TO 45 PERCENT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ061-062-066-067.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ065-068>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ050-063-
064.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
SDZ040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR SDZ059-060.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY
FOR SDZ039-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR SDZ055-056.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ038-052-053-057-
058.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ080-081-089-090-098.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ071-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR MNZ097.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-021-
022-032.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ020-031.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1122 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE DRY SLOT AT THIS TIME...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
BLUSTERY WINDS. DID GO AHEAD AND WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL
DEGREES IN THE DRY SLOT...WITH 60S AND 70S LIKELY. COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CRASHING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...EXPECTING ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TO STAY EAST OF OUR
CWA. BEGINNING TO SEE ELEVATED CONVECTION GO ON THE EDGE OF THE DRY
SLOT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND
BECOMES DEEPER IN THIS AREA...A BIT WORRIED THIS COULD BECOME THE
DOMINANT BAND OF SNOW...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PRESENT. LATEST NAM....HRRR AND RAP ARE IN FACT HINTING AT THIS. SO
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS. MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BUMP
SNOWFALL TOTALS UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING...AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SECOND AREA OF SNOW MAKES IT. WITH
THE VERY STRONG WINDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CREATE ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
AT THIS TIME...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FINALLY THE MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN HOW THEY TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THAT SAID...THERE ARE STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE WHICH ARE KEY TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE OF COURSE. STILL PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
AND GEM FOR BOTH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
DYNAMICALLY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN PORTION OF THE
UPPER WAVE LIFTING WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS SUIT...AND WILL LIKELY TAKE A TRACK FROM
GREGORY COUNTY SD...TO NEAR MARSHALL MN TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRY SLOT FOR MANY OF OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF TODAY.
CURRENTLY HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
HEADING INTO NORTHWEST IA ALONG THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND POSITIVE THETA E ADVECTION...AND WILL LIKELY EXIT OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES BEFORE MID MORNING ALLOWING FOR A POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND ROUND OF REDEVELOPMENT. THE PV SURGE ON THE 1.5 SURFACE
REVEALS DEEPENING TO AROUND 500MB IN NORTHWEST IA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH IS PRETTY STRONG. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PERSISTENT
AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT TODAY...THEN GETS CUTOFF FIRST IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE STRONG PV SURGE MOVES EASTWARD...AND THE
SURFACE FRONT GETS OCCLUDED. SO BY AFTERNOON...THE ONLY REMAINING
ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST MN AS NORTHWEST IA
GETS UNDERCUT WITH STABILIZED AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM FOR A WHILE TODAY IN OUR EAST...
RAPIDLY COOLING HEADING WESTWARD. DID NOT NEED TO ALTER HIGHS MUCH
FROM THE LAST FORECAST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY VARYING
UP TO AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES FROM CHAMBERLAIN TO SIOUX CITY AND
STORM LAKE.
CONCERNING THE WINTER WEATHER...OPTED TO TAKE THE ZONES WHICH WERE
IN THE BLIZZARD WATCH AND PLACED THEM IN A BLIZZARD WARNING.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...NOT A TON OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...RANGING IN
THE WARNING AREA OF ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES. THAT SAID...WE NEED TO
WATCH OUR ZONES IN EAST CENTRAL SD...ESPECIALLY FROM HURON TO
KINGSBURY COUNTY FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THINGS MAY COME
TOGETHER IN EAST CENTRAL SD FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WHEN TROWALING AT THE 300 TO 305K LAYER IS STRONG
COUPLED WITH VERY ABUNDANT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS ABUNDANT EVERYWHERE...BUT OUR FAR WESTERN AND FAR
NORTHERN ZONES IS WHERE THIS INSTABILITY CAN TAP INTO THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE PROFILE. SO ADMITTEDLY THIS IS BOTHERSOME...AND HELPED TO
DECIDE WHETHER TO GO BLIZZARD WARNING IN THOSE AREAS AS OPPOSED TO
AN ADVISORY. FURTHERMORE...SOUNDINGS SHOW A DENDRITIC PROFILE
GENERALLY FROM NEAR CHAMBERLAIN TO DE SMET SD...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE BIG SNOW FLAKES FOR ABOUT A 3 OR 4 HOUR WINDOW. SO SOMETHING
FOR THE DAY CREW TO WATCH FOR CONCERNING SNOW AMOUNTS IN THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE SPRING CAN ALWAYS ACCUMULATE IN A BIG HURRY.
ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARNING AREA...WE WILL KEEP OUR
ADVISORY GOING AS DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHUT OFF RAPIDLY. STILL...
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SNOW TO INTERFERE WITH TRAVEL WHEN WINDS ARE
30 TO 45 MPH...AND IN SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...MIXED
LAYER WINDS ARE CLOSE TO 50 MPH. TEMPERATURES BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST...GIVING A RAPID CHANGEOVER FROM ANY LIGHT RAIN
OVER TO SNOW. EVENTUALLY...THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR EASTERN
ZONES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I 90...VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIE DOWN TUESDAY AS THE STRING SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL MOMENTARILY DECREASE...BUT
WITH THE EXIT OF THE CURRENT STORM SO FAR NORTHEAST SO QUICKLY...
THE UPPER FLOW BACKS AROUND TO SOUTHWEST ALREADY BY LATE TUESDAY AND
WEAK WAVES BRING PATCHES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION BUT A THERMAL GRADIENT QUICKLY REFORMS ALOFT JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE THREAT OF A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD
SLOWLY REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...THOUGH WITH A LITTLE
WARMING WEDNESDAY.
DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROUGH IS PRESENTING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR A
MAJOR PRECIPITATION SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE EC AS USUAL ID THE STRONGEST AND IS FAVORED HERE. IT SHOULD
HANDLE THE DYNAMICS OF THE THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENTS BETTER
THAN THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM. ANYWAY...BESIDES THE
ANTICIPATED TRACK...WHAT GIVES THIS SYSTEM SO MUCH POTENTIAL IS A
HUGE DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS STREAMING INTO THE
SYSTEM...IN CONTRAST TO THE RELATIVELY DRY INFLOW TO THE CURRENT
STORM. THIS WILL PRESENT THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY...WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE
INFLOW INTO THE AREA TO BE LIMITED BY CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IS
THERE...BUT DWARFED BY THE HUGE GENERAL MOISTURE INFLOW. THE CURRENT
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING WAY TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY DRYING TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...SO THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY DOWN THERE WILL JUST
BE GETTING STEADILY RICHER FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE
STRONG EC WHICH BRINGS SO MUCH MOISTURE INFLOW AND WARMTH INTO THE
SYSTEM ALSO KEEPS IT COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...AND THE
DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM CAN ADD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE WET SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN.
YES...THIS STORM COULD WIND UP TRACKING EVEN FURTHER NORTH/NORTHWEST
THAN THE CURRENT EC SOLUTION AND THIS COULD AFFECT PRECIP TYPE...
THOUGH IT SEEMS PRETTY MUCH GUARANTEED THAT IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE CURRENT STORM. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET SNOW TO MAKE SURE THAT POTENTIAL IS KNOWN.
ALSO..A FURTHER NORTHWEST TRACK IN THIS THURSDAY SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY
TO DEVOID ANY PART OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE RICH
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. EVEN WITH THE WEAKER AMERICAN
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE MOISTURE INFLOW IS STILL THERE TO BRING PLENTY
OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
WILL BE GOING OF COURSE FOR TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME...TO
BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME WINDS LOOK TO PEAK MODESTLY STRONG...SO WOULD NOT EMPHASIZE ANY
BLIZZARD POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME BUT WOULD NOT RULE IT OUT.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE DAY THE SYSTEM IS PULLING OUT. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE ROOM FOR SOME WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS WHAT WE HAD WITH THE WEEKEND JUST PAST. ALSO...THERE DOES
SEEM TO BE A RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS BY SUNDAY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER
SUPPORT IN A REDEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THESE DETAILS COULD
CHANGE WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR ANOTHER MAJOR
SYSTEM SOON AFTER THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ONE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
INITIAL VFR WILL BECOME MVFR CEILINGS 1-3K FEET FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH 01/00Z...BY 15Z AT KHON AND BY 23Z AT KSUX. AFTER 19Z
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO BELOW 3SM IN SN/BLSN NORTHWEST THIRD OF
AREA INCLUDING KHON. AREAS OF 3-5SM IN -RASN THEN LOCAL 1-3SM IN
-SN WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST TO PKS/FSD/MWM LINE BY 01/00Z. SURFACE
GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KTS FROM THE W/NW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY 01/00Z. GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES THEN
CEILING WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 01/03Z. STRONG WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY ABATE AFTER 01/06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REACH THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY
THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST IOWA AHEAD OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE QUITE
STRONG AT 25 TO 40 MPH. BUT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS WILL HELP TO RAISE
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 30 TO 45 PERCENT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ061-062-066-067.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ065-068>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ050-063-
064.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
SDZ040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR SDZ059-060.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY
FOR SDZ039-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR SDZ055-056.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR SDZ038-052-053-057-
058.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ080-081-089-090-098.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ071-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR MNZ097.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-021-
022-032.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ020-031.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHENARD
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...MJ
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA.
RELATIVELY CLEAN LOOKING DRY SLOT IS PUSHING AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE
INTO SW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
DRY SLOT...SCT TO BKN ARCING LINE SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE DUE
TO PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 10 KFT. SOME SHOWERS LOOK TO BE REACHING
THE GROUND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH. LOOKING FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI VALLEY BUT SKIES ARE CLEAR ALONG IT THANKS TO THE DEEP DRY
SLOT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND SNOW EXIST
WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD. PLENTY OF FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH
TOMORROW...INCLUDING POTENTIAL AND TIMING OF PRECIP...AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TOMORROW.
TONIGHT...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...700MB FRONT/EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WILL WORK NE AND PUSH A BKN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LINE WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY TAME THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SUGGEST
INTENSIFICATION OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FGEN. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS
SCENARIO...SINCE THIS LINE OF SHOWERS HAS STRUGGLED DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF AMPLE DRY AIR...AS DEPICTED ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS. WILL
TREND POPS UPWARD OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING...BUT
REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH QPF THAN THE MODELS. THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE DOOR PENINSULA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A RELATIVELY CLEAN DRY SLOT WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH
THIS FRONT SO PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN SMALL. BUT THE MESOMODELS
AND NAM CREATE ELEVATED CAPE UP TO ABOUT 100 J/KG ALONG THE
FRONT...SO SUPPOSE CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND USHER IN A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS. PLENTY OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD SO WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL
DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING FAR NE WISCONSIN EARLY
IN THE MORNING AND THEN THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO SATURATE ABOVE THE -10C
ISOTHERM...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED POPS OVER N-C
WISCONSIN WHERE MOISTURE IS THE DEEPEST AND SHOW ABOUT A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...ANY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH WITH THE COMMA HEAD THROUGH THE DAY.
ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT SPRING
STORM TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEY AGREE THAT A UPPER TOUGH WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS WISCONSIN
WITH SOME PHASING WITH JET ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THERE
ARE MORE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND 850MB.
THE ECMWF IS WARMEST AND WOULD PRODUCE MORE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS WOULD PRODUCE
MOSTLY SNOW. WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD THIS SHOULD BE A VIGOROUS SYSTEM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW IN SOME PLACES AND PERHAPS
SIGNIFICANT ICE IN OTHERS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER THE PACIFIC
SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECASTS.
DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...VFR CONDITIONS
BUT WITH LLWS WILL PREVAIL. BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS RUNNING
INTO AMPLE DRY AIR AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE A MENTION FROM THE TAFS. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO REDEVELOPS THIS BAND OF RAIN THIS EVENING OVER NE
WISCONSIN. WILL STILL HAVE DRY AIR AROUND...SO NOT CONFIDENT OF
THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING EITHER. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION REGION MAINLY DURING THE 07-11Z TIME PERIOD.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER IN A
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. CIGS MAY FALL BELOW MVFR LEVELS OVER N-C
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THAT COULD DROP VSBYS TO
MVFR OR IFR...BUT LEFT AS MVFR FOR NOW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1248 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED NICELY ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA ON RADAR. DESPITE THE NUMEROUS LOOKING COVERAGE...1
HOUR METAR OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL ONLY SHOWING MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS. RAP TRENDS ARE LOOKING MORE PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THOUGH...SO FELT IT IS WARRANTED
TO RAISE CHANCES SOME. RAP STILL DIMINISHES THE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH MAKES
SENSE AS IT RUNS INTO DRY AIR AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING MIXES OUT.
ALREADY INTRODUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER PRIOR TO 15Z
WEST OF HIGHWAY 52. LOOKS LIKE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WANES THEREAFTER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A VARIETY OF IMPACTS EXIST IN THE SHORT TERM FROM AN APPROACHING
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE. HAVE TRIED TO EXPLAIN THEM THE BEST IN
AN ORGANIZED FASHION BELOW.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH JUST OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST...A NEGATIVELY
TILTED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND RIDGING FROM
LOUISIANA INTO MICHIGAN. PLENTIFUL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WATER
VAPOR WAS STREAMING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS SCT-BKN
CIRRUS. BELOW THESE CLOUDS...A DRY AIRMASS EXISTS AS SEEN ON A 00Z
700MB AND 850MB RAOB PLOT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-20C FROM
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING IN THE SAME AREA...HOWEVER...NOW ABOUT 5-15
DEGREES HIGHER. THIS INCREASE WAS DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY 925MB WIND
OF 40-55 KT FROM THE FORECAST AREA DOWN INTO TEXAS...HELPING TO
BRING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE WINDS ARE ALSO HOLDING
TEMPERATURES UP WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S. 925MB TEMPS WERE
ANALYZED PER RAP AT 08Z OF 9-13C...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 00Z RAOBS. TO
THE WEST...A 988MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF ALLIANCE NEBRASKA. A
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EAST OF THIS LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS PUTS
THE SHOWERS ROOTED AROUND 600MB. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR HAS KEPT RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...500MB HEIGHT PROGS FROM MODELS ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL NOW...BOTH IN TIMING AND STRENGTH...FOR THE TRACK OF THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. OVERALL TREND
OVER THE PAST WEEK FROM MODELS WAS A SLOWER...DEEPER AND MORE
NORTHWEST TRACK. CURRENT CONSENSUS TRACKS THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS
WATERTOWN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE DULUTH MN AREA BY
12Z TUE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
TAKES NEARLY THE SAME ROUTE...WITH THE PRESSURE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE.
PRECIPITATION...THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE/500MB FEATURES ARE
GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH ALL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. IF THERE WAS MORE
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SAY DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S...THIS MIGHT BE A DIFFERENT STORY. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE 3 WAVES OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...
1. THE FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS LIFT LOOKS TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE PLENTIFUL LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY MAKE IT TOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...OVERALL MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LESS AND LESS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...WITH
THE REGIONAL CANADIAN AND TO SOME DEGREE THE RAP EVEN SUGGESTING
DRY. HAVE LOWERED CHANCES TO 20-30 WITH THIS WAVE.
2. THE SECOND WAVE OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COMES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS COLD FRONT. THERES A GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A NARROW LINE OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR
I-35 NEAR 00Z...CORRELATING WELL WITH AN AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE 0-
2KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET.
31.00Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF 1 HOUR PERIOD OF THE SHOWERS...
WHERE ALSO CAPE ROOTED ABOVE 850MB CLIMBS TO 200-300 J/KG. THIS CAPE
AND FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
GIVEN LIKELY INVERTED-V SOUNDING AND 850MB WINDS OF 45-50 KT...THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE ISOLATED.
3. THE FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF SNOW
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE AND MORE NORTHWEST
WITH THE REACH OF THE COLD CONVEYOR. AS IT STANDS NOW...LOCATIONS
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AUSTIN MN TO WAUSAU WI LOOK TO SEE
THE SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE SNOW MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
AS SUCH...ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO 12Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES...925MB READINGS ARE PROGGED TO MOSTLY HOLD IN THE 9-
13C RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WARMEST TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AT
TIME OF PEAK MIXING. THE WARMER START TO THE DAY PLUS LIMITED IMPACT
FROM PRECIPITATION WOULD SUPPORT A WARMER SCENARIO. IN ADDITION...IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN BOTH EARLY IN THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BREEZY SOUTH WIND AIDING IN ADVECTING
WARMER AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH TOO...SEEMS LIKE A SITUATION TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. DO THINK...THOUGH...THE MET
SHOWING 70-71 FOR BLACK RIVER FALLS...WINONA AND BOSCOBEL IS A BIT
TOO AMBITIOUS. READINGS WILL REALLY TAKE A TUMBLE TONIGHT AS COLD
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. BY 12Z TUE...925MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED BETWEEN -5 AND -7C. A 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.
WINDS...925MB WINDS OF 30-40 KT HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THESE SHOULD PICK UP TOWARDS 45 KT AS
THE LOW AND FRONT NEAR. THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THE DAYTIME MIXING PLUS ISALLOBARIC HELP SHOULD
PUSH WIND GUSTS TOWARDS THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. THEN WE HAVE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH
925MB WINDS ALSO 30-40 KT AIDED TOO BY A PRESSURE RISE. MUCH OF THIS
SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN...RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WITH MAYBE
SOME HIGHER ONES TOWARDS 45 MPH. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
MPX...DMX...DVN AND MKX...SETTLED ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOSTLY THE
COUNTIES ALONG/WEST OF US-52. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED EXPANSION TO
THE EAST INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI DURING THE DAY SHIFT. FOR NOW PUT
THESE COUNTIES IN AN SPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES AND WE REALLY NEED TO WATCH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY CLOSELY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER IN EXITING THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE
SPED UP THE EXITING OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT SNOW AND BRINGING IN
CLEARING QUICKER. WITH A FASTER EXIT...IT APPEARS THOSE LOCATIONS
THAT DO SEE SNOW WILL SEE VERY LITTLE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
START OFF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN WHERE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSES...SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. BETTER
SHOT TO LIGHTEN UP THE WINDS COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90.
THE NEXT CONCERN ON THE HORIZON INVOLVES THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SUBJECTIVELY...THAT TROUGH LOOKS A LOT
MEANER THAN THE ONE COMING INTO THE PLAINS RIGHT NOW. MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DIGGING THIS FEATURE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING RIDGING AND A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE BIG PROBLEM HERE IS THAT THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MOSTLY
OCCURS ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN EASTERLY FLOW
COMING OUT OF COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND ONTARIO. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE ALL INDICATING A LEAD WAVE OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IMPACTING MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE CONCERNS WITH A
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS TO IMPACT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN ADDITION...EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE
EASTERLY FLOW OF DRY AIR COMBINING WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAY SEND
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FORECAST INCLUDES A
VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TROUGH
WHICH THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE ALL TRENDING
TOWARDS THE DEEP ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS TROUGH LIFTS UP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A MUCH DEEPER PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS WE COULD SEE ACCUMULATING WET SNOW...PARTICULARLY
OVER OUR NORTHWEST...TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AND EVEN HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
WI THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO SAY...RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE
60-70 RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUIESDAY MORNING. KRST WILL SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS.
KLSE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 35 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND WEST OVERNIGHT.
BETWEEN 31.23Z AND 01.04Z A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
IOSOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST AROUND 01.00Z AND KLSE AROUND
01.02Z. DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE MAY ENHANCE THE WIND GUSTS
FROM THIS CONVECTION RESULTING IN MUCH STRONGER WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS.
BEHIND THIS LINE...THERE WILL BE A BROKEN 2500 TO 3500 FOOT DECK.
THIS LINE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON POSES SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER.
DEWPOINTS ALSO SHOULD MIX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHICH SAW THAT HAPPEN YESTERDAY.
FUELS ALSO WERE ABLE TO DRY OUT SOME FROM YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY DROP TO A MINIMUM OF 35
PERCENT...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS.
ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COMING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT DRY AIR EXISTS BELOW THE CLOUD
BASES...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL.
THUS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS...SO IF A FIRE WOULD GET
STARTED...THE WIND COULD HELP IT SPREAD A LITTLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TREMPEALEAU...JACKSON AND CLARK
COUNTIES. BOTH THE BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO
THE SNOWMELT THAT HAS OCCURRED YESTERDAY THROUGH NOW. CONTINUED
RAPID SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FROM TEMPERATURES PEAKING UP
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL ALLOW THE RIVERS TO CONTINUE RISING.
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED SOMETIME
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ON THE BLACK SINCE THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER BASIN
MAY BE EXHAUSTED OF SNOWMELT. SHOULD BE A CLOSE CALL ON THE
TREMPEALEAU AT DODGE...THOUGH.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...CONCERN IS GROWING OF A
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD
CLOSELY. LUCKILY THERE ISNT GOING TO BE ANY SNOWMELT OVER THAT
AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ029-033-034.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ