Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/26/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
720 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IMPACTS OTHER THAN STRONG
WINDS INLAND. MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST OR HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. ONLY
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE
STARTING TO INCREASE AND WINDS SHOULD BE SWITCHING A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE HRRR WANTS TO PUSH BACK THE START TIME OF THE PRECIP
BUT DECIDED AGAINST IT AS THERE IS SNOW/PRECIP FALLING ACROSS
CENTRAL NJ RIGHT NOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S IN
MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* BLIZZARD EXPECTED ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS
* 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ANTICIPATED FOR CAPE/ISLANDS
* SHARP CUTOFF/LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL FORECAST NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR
* MINIMAL IMPACT NORTHWEST OF BOSTON-PROVIDENCE EXCEPT STRONG WINDS
DETAILS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL UNDERGO EXPLOSIVE BOMBOGENESIS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT PASSES ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE BENCHMARK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A COMPLETE BOMB DROPPING
40 MB IN 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS WILL BE AN INCREDIBLY POWERFUL EXTRA-
TROPICAL STORM WITH PRESSURE BELOW 960 MB...ITS JUST PASSING TOO FAR
EAST TO PRODUCE A LOT OF SNOW FOR MOST OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE A BLIZZARD WITH
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SNOWFALL AND IMPACTS WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL...WITH LITTLE IMPACT
OTHER THAN WIND TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE. WE
WILL BREAK IT DOWN BY AREA WITH THE EXPECTED IMPACTS.
1) CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS:
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A WARNING. WHILE THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN WIND INTENSITY/QPF AMOUNTS AMONGST THE VARIOUS
MODELS...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL BE A BLIZZARD
ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE ARE FORECASTING 5 TO 10 INCHES
OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE/NANTUCKET. WE
ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND POOR
VISIBILITIES THAN SNOW AMOUNTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING
EXCELLENT TRANSFER SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 60 TO 70 MPH WIND
GUSTS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. TO
BETTER CONVEY OUR CONCERN FOR WIND DAMAGE...WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED A
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE REGION AS WELL. THERE IS EVEN A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A FEW GUSTS REACH HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER-
CAPE/NANTUCKET.
AS FOR THE TIMING...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW DEVELOP BETWEEN 10 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SHOULD OCCUR FROM BETWEEN 2 AM AND
NOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WINDS...EXPECT
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ESPECIALLY WED AM. TRAVEL MAY BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THIS REGION. GIVEN THE
EXPLOSIVE STORM BOMBING OUT WELL TOO OUR EAST...THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME OF THE QPF COULD BE YANKED AWAY. IF THIS IS THE
CASE...OUR CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE TOO HIGH...SOMETHING
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
2) SOUTHEAST OF I-95 TO THE CAPE COD CANAL:
CONVERTED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
GIVEN THE STORM PASSING SO FAR TOO OUR EAST...IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD CONVEYER BELT WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THIS
REGION. THERE IS GOING TO BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE STORM TRACK. WE HAVE FORECASTED 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS REGION...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
THE CAPE COD CANAL. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OFF BY 20
OR 30 MILES IN THE TRACK...WHICH CAN RESULT IN HIGHER OR LOWER
AMOUNTS THAN WE ARE DEPICTING. THEREFORE...OUR CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN
SNOW AMOUNTS IS LOW AND MAY NEED ADJUSTMENTS.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN EXTREME PRESSURE GRADIENT DIFFERENCE. WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. WIND ADVISORIES HOISTED
ALONG WITH A HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY.
AS FOR THE TIMING...SNOW SHOULD START BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM
WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM.
3) NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR:
ONCE YOU GET NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...THE STORM WILL JUST BE
TOO FAR AWAY TO PRODUCE ANY MEANINGFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO PRODUCE A COATING...TO PERHAPS
AN INCH OR SO OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THERE ALSO IS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD PUSH A BIT FURTHER
NORTHWEST THAN EXPECTED...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BEING EXTENDED RIGHT UP TO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE AREAS.
JUST DIDN/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO DO THAT GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS.
ANY SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE MORNING...AND CONCERN WILL TURN TO
40 TO 50 MPH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE STORM. WIND
ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
* A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE PIKE 8
* RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE
* ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
* DRY WEATHER TO FOLLOW BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK
MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE FORECAST. HAVE A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THURSDAY WITH PRECIP TO
FOLLOW. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND WINTRY PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGIONS WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A DEEPER
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DEVELOPING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCE IN THE MESOSCALE SET-UP. APPEARS THAT MODELS ARE TRYING
TO SET-UP AN OMEGA BLOCK SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE.
DETAILS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TREK WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. BUT BECAUSE OF HOW DEEP THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP...AND
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE WED
NIGHT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...BUT BELIEVE THIS IS TOO OPTIMISTIC AS WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY... MAKING IT HARD FOR DECOUPLING TO OCCUR. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY RESULTING
IN SOME SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING AND WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...YET STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL OVER
SPREAD SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
STILL PLENTY OF ISSUES ON PRECIP TIMING AND LOCATION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE NAM IS THE FASTER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN
BRINGING THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS/EC BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE REGION RIGHT AROUND 12Z.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS THERMAL PROFILES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP AS
THE NAM IS BRINGING IN A WARM LAYER AT THE ONSET WITH SURFACE
TEMPS BELOW 32F WHILE THE GFS WARMS THE SURFACE UP ABOVE 32F
KEEPING ANY THOUGHT OF MIXED PRECIP DOWN TO A MIN. CANNOT RULE THE
IDEA OF WINTRY PRECIP OUT AT THIS TIME SO HAVE MENTIONED INTO THE
FORECAST WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH WPC. BIGGEST IMPACT COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW AND SOME ICE ESP IN LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS FRONT WILL DRAG SOME PRECIP THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT HOWEVER LOOKS TO STALL OUT JUST SOUTH
OF THE LONG ISLAND. THIS STALLED FRONT WILL THEN ACT LIKE A WARM
FRONT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AND PUSHES UP THE
CT SPINE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FRI AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 50-60KT LLJ AT 925MB STREAMS
OVER THE REGION.
OVERALL TREND FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE WET BUT CANT RULE OUT A
WASH-OUT AT THIS TIME. TEMPS LUCKILY WILL BE MILD...INTO THE MID
50S WITH A TOUCH OF 60S POSSIBLE. HOWEVER THE TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH THAT WARM AS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING. STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS ON UPDATES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
SLOW TO PUSH WELL INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE
OVER THE REGION STARTING THE WORK WEEK OFF AS DRY AND MILD.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH LOWEST CONFIDENCE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR TO EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WED AM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF I-95 IN
SNOW. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS WITH HEAVY
SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED IN THIS REGION...BEGINNING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-95 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY RESULT
IN SOME MVFR CONDITIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO
45 KNOTS BEGINNING WED MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 6Z THIS EVENING...WITH
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FROM 6Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE RESUMES AFTER 15Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS
WED NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AHEAD OF SYSTEM FRIDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY...WITH A LOW POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIP NORTH OF MASS
PIKE. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN AT 2000-3000 FEET WITH SPEEDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS. THIS COULD MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS IN
WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARDS SAT NIGHT/SUN AM AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
*** LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE WATERS EAST AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET ***
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STORM WILL UNDERGO EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS
BELOW 960 MB AS IT PASSES APPROXIMATELY 2OO MILES EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS EAST AND
SOUTH OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET FOR GUSTS UP TO 65 KNOTS. STORM
WARNINGS FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 KNOTS FOR ALL OTHER OPEN WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS FROM 10Z THROUGH 20Z WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...SEAS
WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 FEET ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR
MARINERS.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS AND WIND WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GALES WILL BE DROPPED TO SCA.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC
ALLOWING FOR A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP INCREASING BOTH
SEAS AND WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD SAT NIGHT THEN
A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO
SUBSIDE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM SURGE ALONG MA E COAST WILL LIKELY PEAK OUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER
THE ASTRO HIGH TIDE BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS
TO CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FROM BOSTON TO
NANTUCKET...INCLUDING N/E FACING SHORELINES ALONG CAPE COD AND
MARTHA/S VINEYARD. THE HIGHER ETSS VALUES APPEAR MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION THAN THE ESTOFS GUIDANCE. EVEN
SO...HAVE RAISED THE ETSS STORM SURGE VALUES BY A FEW TENTHS OF A
FOOT TO AS MUCH AS ONE FOOT IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ANTICIPATING SURGE
OF 1.5 TO 2 FT N OF BOS...2 TO 2.5 FT BOS TO PYM AND MVY AND 2.5
TO 3 FT N/E SHORELINES OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. AROUND THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE...WAVES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 15 FT MASS BAY AND CAPE
COD BAY AND NEAR 25 FT JUST E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. WENT WITH
AN ADVISORY FOR MAINLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BOS TO PYM AND MVY
AND A WARNING FOR N/E FACING SHORELINES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
WHERE AREAS OF MODERATE IMPACT ANTICIPATED. FOR N OF BOS...POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS WELL AS MINOR EROSION BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A
HEADLINE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION EVENT COMPARED
WITH MANY NOREASTER INDUCED COASTAL FLOODS BUT CHARACTERIZED BY
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS AND POTENTIALLY HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET SHORELINES. THESE VERY
STRONG N OR NNE WINDS AT THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY DRIVE
WATER A LITTLE FURTHER ONTO THE SHORELINE THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT FROM
A LITERAL INTERPRETATION OF THE STORM SURGE GUIDANCE. SOME RESIDUAL
SURGE AND SWELL ACTION EXPECTED AT THE TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>018-
020-026.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ019-
021>024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ017>021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MAZ015-016-019-023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MAZ022-024.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR MAZ022>024.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ011-012-
015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ007.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234-
250-251-256.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1113 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL EXPLOSIVELY
INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND STALL. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT, PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AND THEN CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 11PM NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE ADVY WARNING AREA AS THIS
SNOW EVENT WINDS DOWN. ISOLATED TREE DAMAGE REPORTS IN DE BUT FOR
THE MOST PART POWER OUTAGES ARE MINIMAL. INCREASING WIND OVERNIGHT
IN THE WARNING AREA MAY SHAKE DOWN A FEW MORE SNOW LADEN TREE
LIMBS AND BRIEFLY INCREASE POWER OUTAGES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
DESPITE SNOW ENDING.
WE`VE ADDED A SECONDARY SNOW SHOWER BAND TO THE I95 REGION
WESTWARD IN THE 07Z-11Z TIME FRAME PER THE LATEST RAP AND NAM
MODELS. THIS WILL BE A WINDEX EVENT WITH MOIST UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUDDENLY DRYING-STABILIZING AS STRONG NW WINDS
DEVELOP DURING WED MORNING.
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WIND ADVISORY MIDDLESEX
COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO COASTAL OCEAN AND WE MAY EXPAND THAT TO
MUCH OF NJ AND DE AT 330 AM...STILL CONSIDERING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE THE TIGHTEST UP THERE AND CLOSER
TO THE LOW PRESSURE IT SELF, THOUGH ONLY CLOSE IN RELATIVE TERMS.
EXPECTING FREQUENTS GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS A BETTER PORTION
OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID- 30S, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID-
20S...VERY RAW EVEN BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**RECORD BREAKING COLD POTENTIAL**
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR FROM THE EVENING ONWARD. COLD AIR WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 00Z/26 NAM MOS STILL OFFERING RECORD LOWS!
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...A COLD START TO THE DAY AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION, WE WILL START TO HAVE MORE CLOUDS MOVE
IN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES.
FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND IT IS LOOKING TO BE KIND OF A
WET DAY ACROSS OUR AREA. WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE AREA
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER, MAYBE EVEN SOME MID, 60S. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS EARLY ON SATURDAY AND MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS LOW WILL
TRAVERSE THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AS IT APPROACHES THE
REGION, IT WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME AND RANGE AROUND 1.0-1.3 INCHES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THERE AS WELL AS SOME POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. NOT SEEING ALL THAT MUCH INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY THUNDER
OCCURRING. WE THINK THUNDER WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND HAVE LEFT IT
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR SOME
WATCHING IN THE COMING DAYS.
SUNDAY...THINGS START TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER THAN SATURDAY BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MONDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING NEAR THE AREA, WE SHOULD HAVE A
MODERATE AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AND COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PUSHES
TO THE EAST...CROSSING THE DELMARVA TUESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM SO STAY
TUNED FOR DETAILS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z...MOSTLY MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN IFR EXISTS FOR KACY AND KMIV WHERE BETTER
SNOW BANDS HAVE SET UP. THINGS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT AND STRONG, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN...TRENDING BACK
TO VFR BY DAYBREAK. LOOKS FOR A SECONDARY BANDS OF BRIEF IFR SNOW
SHOWERS TO MOVE SEWD THROUGH KRDG/KABE IN THE 07Z-10Z TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE HIGH.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE TIL 14Z. GUSTY NW
WINDS 33-40 KTS FROM THE GET GO AT 12Z. CONFIDENCE HIGH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
20-30 KT DURING THE EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SATURDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD BE IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
GALES EVERYWHERE HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN VERY TIGHT THROUGH THAT TIME
PERIOD. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY, DUE TO FUNNELING, AND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS, CLOSER TO
THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO SUBSIDE. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE GALES BUT WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL AT OUR CLIMO BIG 4:
MARCH 25TH MARCH 26TH
ATLANTIC CITY 2.0 IN 2013 0.1 IN 2001
PHILADELPHIA 1.7 IN 1965 0.8 IN 2001
WILMINGTON 1.2 IN 1965 0.7 IN 2001
ALLENTOWN 1.5 IN 1934 2.0 IN 1933
AS A POINT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL REFERENCE. PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD
TEN 3 INCH OR GREATER SNOW EVENTS AFTER MARCH 24TH.
THE LAST OCCURRED ON MARCH 31ST TO APRIL 1ST OF 1997 AS
3.9 INCHES FELL. THE GREATEST WAS 19.4 INCHES ON APRIL
3RD AND 4TH OF 1915.
ALLENTOWN NEEDS 0.4 INCHES OF SNOW TO CLIMB INTO THIRD PLACE
OF THE SNOWIEST SEASONS ON RECORD.
ATLANTIC CITY NEEDS 0.9 INCHES TO CLIMB INTO 6TH PLACE OF THE
SNOWIEST SEASON ON RECORD AND 2.8 INCHES TO SUPPLANT 2002-3 FOR
5TH SNOWIEST SEASON ON RECORD.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THE 27TH...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THESE WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF RECORD: IT WILL HELP IF THERE
IS STILL SNOW COVERING THE GROUND AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING. ILG PHL GED AND TTN HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF EQUALING OR SETTING NEW RECORDS.
ACY 16 2001
PHL 21 1894
ILG 22 2001 1975 AND 1951
ABE 15 2001
TTN 20 1894
GED 18 1951
RDG 19 2001
MPO 6 1975 IS NOT WITHIN REACH.
AS FOR THE MONTHLY AVERAGES...IT LOOKS LIKE PHL TEMPS WILL BE
AVERAGING AT LEAST 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ020-
022-025>027.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020-026.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ021-023-
024.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ012-
015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/MEOLA 1113P
NEAR TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLINE 1113P
SHORT TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER 1113P
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLINE/MEOLA 1113P
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA
CLIMATE...1113P
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH WED MORNING...
...LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THRU WED MORNING COMMUTE...
TONIGHT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION KICKED IN LATE IN THE DAY AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
KEEP BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR EVEN LATER.
WITH THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY RIGHT DOWN THE
PENINSULA...HAVE NUDGED MIN TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.
10-15 MPH WINDS OCCURRING TOWARDS SUNRISE WHEN MIN TEMPS REACH INTO
THE 40S WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL VALUES TO BRIEFLY TOUCH THE MID 30S
NORTH OF ORLANDO BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE
THE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...QUITE
COLD FOR LATE MARCH.
WED...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL
CREATE A VERY CHILLY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AND DECREASE
DURING THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.
BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DESPITE
NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL...NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 60S. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MARINE STRATOCU
IMPINGING ON THE TREASURE COAST AS THE FLOW VEERS BUT INTERIOR
SECTIONS WILL RECEIVE NEAR FULL SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH SUBSIDED SOME JUST AFTER SUNSET SHOULD
BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 10-15 KNOTS TOWARDS SUNRISE. NORTH WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY AGAIN
WED MORNING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
IN A NUTSHELL...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT AND EVEN FOR
SOME OF THE MORE SEA WORTHY VESSELS.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A DEEP MIXED LAYER OVER THE
ATLANTIC TO NEAR 850 MB...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MEAN WIND
OF 30-35 KNOTS. HRRR INDICATES MAX SURFACE GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
OVERNIGHT THEN DIMINISHING TOWARDS 12Z.
NO CHANGES TO GALE WARNING IN OPEN ATLANTIC AND THE STRONG SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NEAR SHORE.
WED...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON
AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND
WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS IN THE GULF STREAM.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY MORNING
DAYTONA........36 1956
ORLANDO........38 1894
MELBOURNE......44 2013
VERO BEACH.....43 1979
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DAYTONA........61 2013
ORLANDO........68 2005
MELBOURNE......64 2013
VERO BEACH.....66 2013
RECORD LOWS TONIGHT LOOK A BIT OUT OF REACH THOUGH MELBOURNE COULD
GET CLOSE. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR COOL HIGH RECORDS WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY AT ORLANDO.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER
BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2014
.AVIATION...
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT. A 2-4HR PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE
MORNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THE MID
AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE MAIN FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF PBI. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...MAINLY FOR PBI AND APF...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AT KAPF...SCT/BKN 07KFT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH LATE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE MORNING...AND THEN BACK TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SHOWERS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SKIES
ARE CLEARING THIS EVENING. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PERSISTENT
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT SHOULD NOT GO BELOW MVFR. BY
TOMORROW, A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARDS AND STALL ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWERS
TOMORROW. BUT, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ABLE TO FORM, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, IF ABLE TO PASS OVER A TAF SITE, MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR.
WINDS ARE ANOTHER ISSUE. THEY SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT, OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST, WITH SOME LOCATIONS BECOMING VARIABLE. AROUND
DAYBREAK, THEY WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THEY WILL TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID DAY, THEN POSSIBLY SSE BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014/
UPDATE...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
INCHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. UPDATED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. KEPT PATCHY FOG
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014/
UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK CHANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED CLOSE
TO 90 AND A SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND. THE
LATEST HRRR IS NOW SHOWING A COUPLE OF LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BREEZE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND
SLOWLY MOVE DOWN THE PENINSULA ON MONDAY ARRIVING IN SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL THEN STALL. A SOUTHERN STREAM
PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL AID IN MOVING THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY MONDAY
EVENING AND A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. ALL OF THIS WILL COMBINE TO
PROVIDE DECENT VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY FOR A CLOUDY WEATHER
PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PWAT INCREASING IN THE RANGE OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES IN THE TIME
PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS PLACES THE PWAT AT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY EXCESSIVE IF THE HIGHER RANGE CAN BE
ACHIEVED. SO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE
BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALWAYS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF
TRAINING OF ECHOES BEGINS TO ENFOLD. THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHICH IN TURN WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE WAVE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY AND THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
EVENING. THE SKY WILL THEN CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA
BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL BEGIN DRY AND PLEASANT WITH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON REMAINING IN THE 70S. A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER EMBEDDED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS LATE MONDAY AND THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS
LATE TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. LOCAL
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY WESTERLY TONIGHT RAPIDLY BECOMING
LIGHT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. EXTENSIVE AREAS
OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN CLEAR
OUT TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 69 80 59 / 40 70 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 71 80 61 / 40 60 60 20
MIAMI 83 71 80 61 / 40 50 60 20
NAPLES 79 69 76 57 / 40 70 70 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
857 PM MDT TUE MAR 25 2014
.UPDATE...FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS EAST IDAHO
TONIGHT. WV/IR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGEST SHORTWAVE CENTER CROSSING
IDAHO/OREGON/NEVADA TRIPLE POINT THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENING IN NORTHERN UTAH. STRONG MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING INTO EAST IDAHO. AREA WEB CAMS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP IN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE SPREADING TO THE WYOMING BORDER BY 12Z.
SURFACE DEW POINTS VERY DRY IN THE SNAKE PLAIN SO WOULD TAKE QUITE
A BIT OF MOISTENING FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND AT THIS TIME.
HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND NUDGED
WINDS UP SLIGHTLY TO MEET CURRENT CONDITIONS AND UPSTREAM GUSTS
IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS. BETTER PRECIP ARRIVES DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IN POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM MDT TUE MAR 25 2014/
SHORT TERM...YESTERDAY THE GFS CONSOLIDATED THE SPLITTING TROUGH AS IT MOVED
THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
MAINTAINED THE STRETCHING/SPLITTING SCENARIO. TODAY THE GFS IS BACK
TO STRETCHING THE TROUGH WITH MORE ENERGY CROSSING SOUTH OF THE
STATE. NICE TO HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY. HANDLING OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAS ALSO BEEN DIFFICULT. THE 12Z NAM12 RUN LOWERED SNOW LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO A LITTLE BELOW 5000 FEET ELEVATION. AT THE SAME
TIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...THEREFORE DID A
LITTLE COMPROMISE ON SNOW LEVELS. COLD FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH 6-9
AM MDT WEDNESDAY. PLANNING ON ENOUGH RAIN WITH THE FRONT TO WET THE
DIRT BEFORE WINDS COME UP. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT HIGH
BUT LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP...MAY EVEN GET SOME ICE OR SNOW
PELLETS WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. ALSO REJECTED THE NAM MOS WINDS OF
30 KTS AT POCATELLO...BLAMING IT PARTLY ON THE HANDLING OF COLD
AIR...PREFERENCE GFS MOS KEEPING WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE IN THE
LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND EAST MAGIC VALLEY. FOR THURSDAY...SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALL
SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S. FOR
SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FAVOR 1 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET...MAYBE LOCAL 4 INCHES
ON WEST FACING SLOPES NEAR SUN VALLEY AND MACKS INN. MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES ACROSS
THIS AREA WITH ACCUMULATION UP TO 6 INCHES HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN WASATCH RANGE...AND
MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS APPROACH 30 TO 40 MPH. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND AT
LEAST A WIND ADVISORY IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. CONTRARY TO YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL...THIS FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WHILE A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
RS
LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT. HUGE DIFFERENCES HAVE
DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE 25/12Z GFS APPEARS TO
HAVE...PERHAPS...DEVELOPED A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THAT HAS SENT THE
QPF PRODUCTION TO GOING CRAZY. AS MUCH AS 1.22 INCHES PRODUCED IN 12
HOURS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LESS THAN
1/2 OF THAT AMOUNT. HAVENT MADE MUCH CHANGE DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
MAINLY CORRECTED FOR BORDER ISSUES AND TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
FOR THE FIRST FOUR PERIODS WHEN IT COMES TO POP AND SKY. TIMING HAS
ALSO SLIPPED OUT OF AGREEMENT FOR MOST TIME PERIODS. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST ALL AROUND. MESSICK
AVIATION...LARGE DIFFERENCES SURFACED BETWEEN NAM AND GFS. THE GFS
HAS STAYED DRY FOR TONIGHT...WHILE THE NAM HAS BECOME MUCH WETTER.
THIS HAS LED TO THE NAM PREDICTING MARGINAL VFR CIGS AND RAIN FOR
WED EARLY MORNING. DID NOT HAVE THE HRRR GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND THE
NAM HAS SOME STRONGLY CHANGING DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS EVERY THREE
HOURS. SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST...BUT HAVE LEFT THE
CIGS ABOVE THE MARGINAL VFR THRESHOLD. HRRR HAS JUST SINCE RESTARTED
AND MAY BE OF USE IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WHEN IT HAS FULLY COME IN.
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS JUST BEYOND THE 26/18Z END TIME OF THE
CURRENT TAFS WHEN NAM GOES FOR 30KT SUSTAINED WIND V. 16KT SUSTAINED
WIND OF THE GFS. CURRENTLY BELIEVE THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND RELIABLE...THUS BELIEVE THE DRIER AND CALMER SCENARIO
FOR NOW. MESSICK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
258 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT
MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED ON A
NARROW CHANNEL OF PRECIP/SNOW THAT IS POISED TO ARRIVE JUST AFT 00Z
AND PROGRESSIVELY SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA.
BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW HAS SETUP SHOP ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...AND NOT MOVED MUCH. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLY LOWER
DEW POINTS LINGERING LONGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO WARM BEYOND THE LOW 30S...MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENT
THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD.
UPSTREAM OF THE CWFA SFC OBS INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH T/TD SPREAD GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 DEG...AND VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LIFT TO THE CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM NORTHWEST IOWA STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTCENTRAL WISC.
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE FORCING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCAL POINT FOR THE PRECIP LATER THIS
EVENING. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
FEATURE...ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWFA BTWN 00-03Z AND
STEADILY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO THIS BAND DOES APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL...ALTHOUGH STILL
COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A QUICK BURST OF SNOWFALL AS IT
ARRIVES ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT. LOCAL WRF-ARW INDICATES SNOWFALL
RATES COULD APPROACH 1"/HR AT THE PEAK BETWEEN 04-07Z...AND HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER CYCLES. HAVE ADJUSTED SNOWFALL UP JUST A
LITTLE TO GENERALLY 1"...HOWEVER ALONG AND WEST OF LASALLE TO
CRYSTAL LAKE SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS THE SNOW
BAND SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING/INSTABILITY AND
COULD SEE BETWEEN 1-2". TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT COOL MUCH FROM THE PRESENT STATUS...SO HAVE LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 20S.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL TOTALS...MEDIUM/HIGH.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES TUE...AND UNFORTUNATELY MOTHER
NATURE DECIDES ANOTHER COLD/BLUSTERY DAY WOULD BE A GREAT IDEA.
BROAD SFC RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THE LEE-SIDE. THIS
POINTS TOWARDS BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR TUE...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
WARM MUCH FROM THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. AT THIS TIME HAVE HIGHS IN THE
MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS POSSIBLY
REACHING 30 DEG TUE AFTN. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BECOME P-CLOUDY AS
THE PUNCH OF COLD/DRY AIR ARRIVES.
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC RIDGE QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST AND BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NGT
AND BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TUE NGT...LOWS WILL RADIATE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS.
500MB TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO PIVOT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WED...WITH LLVL FLOW TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRINGING
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA FOR WED. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND
INTO THE MID/UPR 30S WED...HOWEVER SKIES WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN LATE
WED NGT AS A ROBUST SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
IS POISED TO BRING AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THUR.
CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOCUS FOR THE THUR/FRI TIMEFRAME CONTINUES TO BE ON A PROGGED
SHORTWAVE WITH WILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AS RETURN FLOW MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF WILL BE STREAMING INTO THIS SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS. IT
APPEARS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION THUR...SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT COULD SEE THE NEED TO ADD THIS INTO THE
PRESENT FORECAST FOR THUR.
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER FOR THUR/FRI...BUT STILL SUB-SEASONAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 40S. WITH THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE
NORTHERN STREAM...THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AT THE EARLIEST LATE THUR NGT...BUT LEANING MORE
TOWARDS FRI AFTN. GUIDANCE HAS DEMONSTRATED INCONSISTENCIES IN THE
TIMING OF DEPARTURE...SO THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE END TIMING.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS WARMING TREND FOR THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW SAT
TRANSITIONING TO EASTERN CONUS RIDGING...TEMPS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE
FORECAST INTO THE 60S SUN/MON. SAT WILL BE THE COOLER DAY FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S.
ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING THAT A POTENT SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING EAST
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CALI SUN...AND A SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY MON. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE AND POTENTIALLY STORMY WEATHER
TO THE REGION MON.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* LAKE BREEZE AT MDW THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLE AT ORD.
* PERIOD OF LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW LATE EVENING/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH IFR/LIFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE.
* COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
25-30 KTS...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE IS FORMING ALONG THE SHORE BUT
CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW FAR INLAND IT MAY MOVE IS LOW. HAVE
MAINTAINED A SHIFT AT GYY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR
ORD/MDW. OTHERWISE...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10KTS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOUTHERLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING...A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT. TOTAL DURATION MAY ONLY
BE A FEW HOURS BUT VIS/CIGS COULD QUICKLY DROP TO IFR OR PERHAPS
BRIEF LIFR. OPTED TO GO PREVAILING AND THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TIME WINDOW...BUT IF
THE SNOW MATERIALIZES AS EXPECTED...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
QUICKLY. COLD FRONT THEN SHIFTS WINDS NORTHWEST WITH STRONG/GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH LAKE BREEZE WILL REACH MDW...MEDIUM ON TIMING.
* LOW LAKE BREEZE WILL REACH ORD.
* HIGH FOR SNOW LATE THIS EVENING...MEDIUM FOR TIMING/VIS/CIGS.
* HIGH FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHC RA LATE WED NGT.
THURSDAY...RA LIKELY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHC RA/SN MAINLY EARLY. MVFR POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
201 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
TONIGHT TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS GUSTING TO 30
KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE WITH MID 20S GUSTS EXPECTED
NORTH WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE PLAINS
HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVER
THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN TURN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKS EAST THEN NORTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL NEED TO IRON OUT THE
SPEED OF THE LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT WHICH PERIODS ARE AFFECTED BY
STRENGTHENING WINDS. WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WHICH MAY MITIGATE THE MAXIMUM WIND POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH THANKS TO AN INVERSION. 30 KTS LOOKS EASILY ATTAINABLE AT THIS
POINT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH GALE POTENTIAL CLOSELY BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE INVERSION MAY KEEP GALES FROM OCCURRING. WINDS
SHIFT WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES SOME TIME THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY THEN EASE INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...1 AM TUESDAY TO 10
PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM TUESDAY TO 4
AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
250 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2014
Two main concerns with this forecast package. First one involves
chances of snow tonight across the area. The second concern
involves the next weather system moving through the area Wed night
and continuing through Friday. Models are in fairly good agreement
with the first system tonight, with most of the pcpn now holding
off til after 10pm tonight, and then being mostly done by 7am
tomorrow. With the second system, models continue with same
differences as yesterday. GFS and NAM-WRF are quicker than the
ECMWF and GEM, however the GFS continues to have a second low
pressure area riding up into the Ohio valley after the main push
of the front and pcpn. So, in the extended, will follow the speed
of the NAM/GFS, and agree with the ending like the ECMWF and GEM.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday Night
Weak frontal boundary is still west of the area out in western
Iowa. Light snow is falling in some locations, though not very
wide spread at this time. This area of snow will move into
Illinois later this evening and will have to overcome the dry
airmass that is in place. Based on radar trends, best snow will be
occurring in MO and south of the state. By 1am, snow should have
begun in northwest areas of the cwa, mainly along and northwest of
I-55. By morning, snow will have spread east across the remainder
of the cwa and ended in the west. Because of the weak dynamics and
minimal moisture, believe snowfall amounts will be very light. So
expecting only about 1/2 inch or less tonight across the area,
with highest amounts being along and north of I-74. With the 500mb
trough rotating through the area tomorrow morning, flurries will
still be possible over the area. By afternoon, the pcpn will have
ended and skies will become partly to mostly sunny. Then dry
weather is expected Tue night and Wed. However, by Wed evening, the
beginnings of the next weather system will begin moving into the
southwest parts of of the area. The warm air advection pcpn will
overspread the rest of the area after midnight Wed night. The pcpn
will continue and increase some during the day Thursday as a cold
front begins to push into the area for Thur afternoon and Thur
night. The airmass ahead of the system will be warm and moist, and
combined with the strong southerly winds, should be the right
dynamics for thunderstorms to be possible too. So have chance of
thunderstorms mentioned with the likely showers for Thur and Thur
night.
Temps will remain well below normal for first 3 periods, but then
begin to warm for remainder of the period. However, temps will
only get to around normal by Thursday.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Once the front passes through the area Thur night, showers will
continue for a brief period behind the front. Then dry weather
will be the rule as high pressure builds into the region for Sat
through Sunday night. With the pattern being somewhat zonal
through the weekend, another weather system becomes possible for
Monday. Both GFS and ECMWF have something there for the day, so
will have chance pops for now for Monday.
Warmer temps are to be expected through the period, hopefully
signaling an end to the the colder than normal temps. Temps are
expected to actually rise to above normal for Sunday and Monday.
Auten/Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1223 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2014
Ceilings expected to gradually lower this evening as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Lots of dry air needed to be
overcome initially, but a 3-5 hour period of MVFR ceilings/
visibilities expected as light snow accompanies the passage of the
front. Based on the RAP model, have indicated a couple hours with
TEMPO groups on when the lowest visibilities are most likely in
the heavier bands of snow. Once the front clears, a brief period
of mostly clear skies expected until ceilings around 4000 feet
redevelop by mid-morning. Surface gusts over 20 knots likely to
develop late Tuesday morning.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1251 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
339 AM CDT
WE`LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH WINTER FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...BUT SUPPORT IS
GROWING LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND BEYOND FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
THAT WILL YIELD AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF WARM...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SO HANG TIGHT IF YOU ARE WEARISOME OF THE COLD WEATHER.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH SNOW CHANCES MAINLY TONIGHT AND
WITH TEMPERATURES DURING ANOTHER BLAST OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
TODAY...
MORNING W/V IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS. DUE TO VERY DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS NOTED ON PROXIMITY AND
UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS...ONLY ANTICIPATING THAT THIS INITIAL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THEN LOWERING OF CLOUD
BASES. GIVEN FORCING FROM WAVE...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT FLURRIES
FROM OVC DECK IN AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO GO
PRIMARILY DRY FOR DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST
LATE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE
FORCING FOR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. MINOR WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE THE CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC FRONT APPROACH EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/PROGRESSIVE BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM EARLY EVE IN NW
AND LIKELY EXITING SOUTHEAST CWA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. CONTINUED TREND OF HIGH POP/LOW QPF...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS IN SNOW BAND. HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL SNOW BUT
DURATION COULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AT MOST A HALF INCH TO MAYBE
AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE ONLY A DUSTING.
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO MAXIMIZE FORCING SOUTHEAST OF I-55...SO HAVE
AMOUNTS CLOSEST TO AN INCH THERE. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND
25 DEGREES...SO SNOW WILL BE POWDERY IN NATURE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE AIR MASS PLUNGING SOUTH IN DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AS COLD AS
IT GETS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT -16 TO -19C AT 850 MB...SO TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW AND MINIMAL THROUGH AFTERNOON. ONLY EXPECTING
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH OF I-80 AND AROUND 30/LOW 30S SOUTH OF
I-80. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING COULD TOUCH
OFF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS WILL
BE EXCELLENT...BUT NW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP FOCUS PRIMARILY
EAST OF PORTER COUNTY INDIANA. ARCTIC HIGH WILL THEN BE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GOING FORECAST OF LOW-MID TEENS BY DAYBREAK
WEDS IN GOOD SHAPE.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST US...WITH EXTREMELY DEEP
CYCLONE OFF EAST COAST. THIS WILL FORCE RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF
HEIGHT FIELDS...WITH RAPID HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION AFTER
VERY COLD START TO DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON BUT
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RECOVER TO AT LEAST THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LIGHT PRECIP DUE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OVER NORTHERN CWA DURING EVENING AT A TIME WHEN THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR POSSIBLE WINTER MIX. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW HOWEVER. THEN OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE...WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM
LEAD SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
THE LOW CHANCE RANGE AND SHOULD PRECIP OCCUR...PROFILES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL APPROACH DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR AND ENHANCED LLJ FAVORING
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS MUCH OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. DECENT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER CHANCES IN
SOUTHERN CWA ON THURS...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER YET. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CLEARING THE
CWA...WITH 00Z ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE ON SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. IF
SLOW TREND WINS OUT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AROUND IN
AFTERNOON TO ENABLE MIX WITH SNOW IN PARTS OF NORTHERN CWA. THEN
HAVE SLIGHT POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
SATURDAY WILL BE TRANSITION DAY HERALDING PATTERN CHANGE TO MUCH
WARMER ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. WE
WILL BE NORTH OF WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING
LAKESHORE CHILLY AND GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 INLAND. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WITH +8 TO +10C AT 850 MB AND 11-12C AT 925
SUPPORTING HIGHS AT LEAST IN LOW-MID 60S. IF MIXING IS DEEP ENOUGH
AND CLOSE TO 850 MB...SOME PARTS OF CWA MIGHT FLIRT WITH 70 DEGREES!
A PEAK INTO NEXT INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. THUS THE WARM WEATHER MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR
LOOKS LIKE ITS FINALLY ON ITS WAY.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
* PERIOD OF LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW LATE EVENING/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH IFR/LIFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE.
* COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
25-30 KTS...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE IS FORMING ALONG THE SHORE BUT
CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW FAR INLAND IT MAY MOVE IS LOW. HAVE
MAINTAINED A SHIFT AT GYY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR
ORD/MDW. OTHERWISE...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10KTS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOUTHERLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING BACK SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING...A BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT. TOTAL DURATION MAY ONLY
BE A FEW HOURS BUT VIS/CIGS COULD QUICKLY DROP TO IFR OR PERHAPS
BRIEF LIFR. OPTED TO GO PREVAILING AND THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TIME WINDOW...BUT IF
THE SNOW MATERIALIZES AS EXPECTED...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
QUICKLY. COLD FRONT THEN SHIFTS WINDS NORTHWEST WITH STRONG/GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW LAKE BREEZE WILL REACH ORD/MDW.
* HIGH FOR SNOW LATE THIS EVENING...MEDIUM FOR TIMING/VIS/CIGS.
* HIGH FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHC RA LATE WED NGT.
THURSDAY...RA LIKELY. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHC RA/SN MAINLY EARLY. MVFR POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
255 AM CDT
MARINE CONCERNS INVOLVE A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF TROUGHS AND
RIDGES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...WHICH WILL PRODUCE A FEW PERIODS
OF GUSTY NORTHERLY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS DRIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...ALLOWING
WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING NORTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASING INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE
FALLING OFF MORE QUICKLY AND BACKING WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
LAKES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE INTO THE 30 KT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH
EXACT TIMING OF THE LOW PASSAGE BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY
FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF 30 KT GUSTS LIKELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THURSDAY...THOUGH HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN
GLF DUE TO ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...1 AM TUESDAY TO 10
PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM TUESDAY TO 4
AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1223 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1012 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2014
Earlier thick patch of altocumulus has thinned some and allowed
for some morning sunshine, but still some widespread cloudiness
off to our west. Couple areas of light snow west of the
Mississippi, one across Iowa and the other across northern Kansas,
as a shortwave zips across the central Plains. Latest look at
high-resolution models as well as the newly arrived NAM shows the
afternoon remaining dry in our area, with forecast soundings quite
parched below 7000 feet. Thus, have removed afternoon
precipitation from the forecast. Also did some tweaks to the grids
for tonight, as the main cold front arrives from the northwest.
The soundings and models mainly focusing on about a 3-5 hour
window of light snow, beginning this evening west of I-55 and
mainly after midnight to the east. Accumulations still looking
minor, mainly a couple tenths or so. Broke up the grids to reflect
the timing of the higher PoP`s, although this did not make any
significant change to the worded forecast.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1223 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2014
Ceilings expected to gradually lower this evening as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Lots of dry air needed to be
overcome initially, but a 3-5 hour period of MVFR ceilings/
visibilities expected as light snow accompanies the passage of the
front. Based on the RAP model, have indicated a couple hours with
TEMPO groups on when the lowest visibilities are most likely in
the heavier bands of snow. Once the front clears, a brief period
of mostly clear skies expected until ceilings around 4000 feet
redevelop by mid-morning. Surface gusts over 20 knots likely to
develop late Tuesday morning.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 305 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday
Clouds will overspread central Illinois this morning as short-wave
energy over the Northern Plains/Rockies approaches from the
northwest. Water vapor imagery shows several weak impulses
embedded within the broad northwesterly flow pattern, with most
models focusing on the wave currently dropping into Wyoming as the
dominant weather feature to impact the region later today. This
particular wave will track southeastward into Missouri by 00z,
resulting in the strongest lift remaining just S/SW of the KILX CWA
this afternoon. Given the more southerly track of this main wave
and the fact that quite a bit of dry air will initially be in
place across the area, have scaled back afternoon PoPs. Will only
feature chance PoPs late this afternoon across the S/SE CWA, with
dry weather anticipated across the remainder of the area. Forecast
soundings still suggest ample evaporative cooling will lead to
light snow as precip initiates: however, surface temps around 40
could lead to a brief rain/snow mix south of I-70.
Second short-wave further upstream over Alberta/Saskatchewan will
swing through the region tonight. While decent lift will be
present with this feature, moisture will be limited. Am expecting
a period of light snow across all of central and southeast
Illinois from mid-evening through the overnight hours, with a
minor accumulation of around one half inch likely. May see a few
lingering snow-showers/flurries Tuesday morning before wave pushes
further east and skies become mostly sunny by afternoon. Main
weather story on Tuesday will be the cold and windy conditions.
Forecast sounding momentum transfer indicates northwesterly wind
gusts of 25 to 30 mph. These winds coupled with temperatures
hovering in the lower to middle 30s will produce wind-chill values
in the single digits and teens. Temps will begin to moderate by
Wednesday as progressive flow pattern allows upper heights to rise
considerably in the wake of the Tuesday system. Resulting highs
will be in the lower to middle 40s.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday
There are still some minor model discrepancies in the extended:
however, overall trend will be for warmer weather. Vigorous
short-wave is progged to come onshore along the West Coast on
Wednesday, then track eastward into the region late Thursday into
Friday. One change seen on the 00z Mar 24 model suite concerns the
timing of an initial wave ahead of the main feature. NAM/GFS now
bring showers associated with this wave into central Illinois
much faster Wednesday night, while the ECMWF remains a bit slower
toward dawn Thursday. Given progressive flow pattern and strong
southerly flow behind departing high pressure allowing ample
moisture return, tend to favor the faster NAM/GFS here. As a
result will carry chance PoPs for rain showers late Wednesday
night. Showers will become more widespread on Thursday as the main
wave approaches from the west. Associated surface low pressure and
cold front arrive Thursday evening, with the ECMWF remaining about
6 to 12 hours slower than the GFS. Still think the faster GFS is
the way to go, with FROPA occurring Thursday evening. Will go with
likely PoPs and mention chance of thunder at that time. Friday is
shaping up to be a largely dry day as front quickly passes east of
the region. Will maintain low chance PoPs across the eastern CWA
in case front slows. After that, upper ridge builds across the
central CONUS and temps steadily warm through early next week.
With 850mb temps reaching the 10 to 12C range, above normal highs
well into the 60s will be likely by Sunday.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
102 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
PRECIP EVOLUTION TODAY WILL SWITCH FROM SYNOPTIC FORCING TO MORE
OF A CONVECTIVE NATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP
MIXING...PUSHING 2-3KM AT TIMES ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...SUGGESTING
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL BE PREVALENT WHICH IS ALREADY SHOWING
ITS HAND OVER SRN MN. WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO EXTREME...BUT THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW BURSTS AND MODERATE GUSTS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS
OF LOW VISIBILITIES NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR WHAT I BELIEVE WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT.
RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST OF SAC CITY
THROUGH THE DES MOINES METRO AREA THEN SOUTHEAST TO ABOUT CORYDON.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND A QUICK CHECK OF
SNOWFALL AFTER THREE AND A HALF HOURS OF SNOWFALL REVEALS DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE IS INDEED IN PLACE. THERE IS BARELY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT THE OFFICE. THERE ARE A LOT OF
PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH ARE GIVING MODELS FITS. FIRST IS
THE DISTINCT DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL IMPROVE SOME
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE SATURATES A DEEPER LAYER. THE PROBLEM...IF
YOU CAN BELIEVE THE MODELS AT ALL IS THAT IT WILL COME IN SEVERAL
BOUTS. ANY FORCING THAT COMES ACROSS BEFORE WE CAN SATURATE WILL
YIELD VERY LITTLE SNOWFALL. HOWEVER IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY PICK UP AROUND AN
INCH PERHAPS LOCALLY TWO. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS EXPAND THE PRECIP
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SO I FEEL CONFIDENT IS EXPANDING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE NAM12 HAS HIGHER SNOWFALL IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WHILE THE HRRR HAS A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. OTHER HI-RES MODELS VARY FROM
ALMOST NOTHING AT ALL BEING A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE EXPANSION
EAST.
I TRIED TO TIE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO LOCATIONS WHERE IT APPEARED FORCING
WOULD BE STRONGER FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AND WHERE MOISTURE WAS
DEEPER.
AS FOR TEMPS...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE BY UP TO A CATEGORY. I CANNOT SEE
US CLIMBING MUCH TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. A CHECK OF
ROAD SURFACE TEMPS INDICATES ROAD SURFACES HAVE COOLED TO WELL BELOW
FREEZING SO TO BE PROACTIVE WE WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OUT TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY...SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY S/WV WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER
TONIGHT AND SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ENDING...BUT ALL
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE MORNING.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. CHANGES ARE IN THE
WORKS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS NORTH. HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BEING PUSHED TO THE NORTH OF IA. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING
QUICKLY ON WED AND THU. KEPT THE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND HAVE
MOVED IT INTO THE SWRN ZONES LATE WED NIGHT WITH STRONG WAA AND
WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLD
THUNDER ON TAP FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA THU WITH ELEVATED CAPE
OVER THE SOUTH REACHING ABOUT 500 J/KG. LOW WILL PULL OUT THU
NIGHT WITH A MIX OF -RASN. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE INTENSE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...IT WILL NEEDED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
BEHIND THE LOW.
FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH SUB-NORMAL TEMPS. WARMING WILL SET IN
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS BY SUN AND MON. ECMWF
A BIT FASTER WITH THE WARMING AND BRINGS 70S INTO THE STATE BY
SUN...THE GFS A BIT SLOWER AND HOLDS THEM OFF UNTIL MON. EITHER
WAS A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF WARMER AIR IS SLATED FOR LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT.
&&
.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXIST OVER NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA /KFOD/KMCW/KALO/ DUE TO LIGHT SNOW/VSBYS AND CIGS. MAINLY
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL ALSO ADVANCE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THESE AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW INTO THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR SNOW AS WELL.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS MAR 14
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1119 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
PRECIP EVOLUTION TODAY WILL SWITCH FROM SYNOPTIC FORCING TO MORE
OF A CONVECTIVE NATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP
MIXING...PUSHING 2-3KM AT TIMES ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...SUGGESTING
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL BE PREVALENT WHICH IS ALREADY SHOWING
ITS HAND OVER SRN MN. WINDS WILL NOT BE TOO EXTREME...BUT THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW BURSTS AND MODERATE GUSTS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS
OF LOW VISIBILITIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR WHAT I BELIEVE WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT.
RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST OF SAC CITY
THROUGH THE DES MOINES METRO AREA THEN SOUTHEAST TO ABOUT CORYDON.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND A QUICK CHECK OF
SNOWFALL AFTER THREE AND A HALF HOURS OF SNOWFALL REVEALS DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE IS INDEED IN PLACE. THERE IS BARELY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT THE OFFICE. THERE ARE A LOT OF
PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH ARE GIVING MODELS FITS. FIRST IS
THE DISTINCT DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL IMPROVE SOME
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE SATURATES A DEEPER LAYER. THE PROBLEM...IF
YOU CAN BELIEVE THE MODELS AT ALL IS THAT IT WILL COME IN SEVERAL
BOUTS. ANY FORCING THAT COMES ACROSS BEFORE WE CAN SATURATE WILL
YIELD VERY LITTLE SNOWFALL. HOWEVER IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY PICK UP AROUND AN
INCH PERHAPS LOCALLY TWO. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS EXPAND THE PRECIP
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SO I FEEL CONFIDENT IS EXPANDING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE NAM12 HAS HIGHER SNOWFALL IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WHILE THE HRRR HAS A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. OTHER HI-RES MODELS VARY FROM
ALMOST NOTHING AT ALL BEING A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE EXPANSION
EAST.
I TRIED TO TIE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO LOCATIONS WHERE IT APPEARED FORCING
WOULD BE STRONGER FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AND WHERE MOISTURE WAS
DEEPER.
AS FOR TEMPS...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE BY UP TO A CATEGORY. I CANNOT SEE
US CLIMBING MUCH TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. A CHECK OF
ROAD SURFACE TEMPS INDICATES ROAD SURFACES HAVE COOLED TO WELL BELOW
FREEZING SO TO BE PROACTIVE WE WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OUT TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY...SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY S/WV WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER
TONIGHT AND SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ENDING...BUT ALL
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE MORNING.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. CHANGES ARE IN THE
WORKS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS NORTH. HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BEING PUSHED TO THE NORTH OF IA. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING
QUICKLY ON WED AND THU. KEPT THE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND HAVE
MOVED IT INTO THE SWRN ZONES LATE WED NIGHT WITH STRONG WAA AND
ARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLD THUNDER
ON TAP FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA THU WITH ELEVATED CAPE OVER THE
SOUTH REACHING ABOUT 500 J/KG. LOW WILL PULL OUT THU NIGHT WITH A
MIX OF -RASN. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE INTENSE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...IT WILL NEEDED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
BEHIND THE LOW.
FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH SUB-NORMAL TEMPS. WARMING WILL SET IN
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS BY SUN AND MON. ECMWF
A BIT FASTER WITH THE WARMING AND BRINGS 70S INTO THE STATE BY
SUN...THE GFS A BIT SLOWER AND HOLDS THEM OFF UNTIL MON. EITHER
WAS A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF WARMER AIR IS SLATED FOR LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT.
&&
.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SNOW DIMINISHING AT THE PRESENT BUT THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
FURTHER. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS LIKELY ACROSS TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH TODAY BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. LOWER CLOUDS
WERE FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND NOT EXPANDING SO THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN
TAFS. THOSE MAY NEED TO BE HANDLED WITH AMD/S IF THEY EXPAND...
THOUGH I AM NOT EXPECTING THAT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SYNOPSIS...MS MAR 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS MAR 14
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
655 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY FOLLOWED ONE LAST
SURGE OF POLAR AIR ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. PATTERN WILL UNDER GO A CHANCE ONCE THE EAST COAST LOW
PUSHES OUT OF THE WAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH IA THU NIGHT WITH ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF COOLER
AIR BEHIND IT WITH THE NEXT HIGH BEING MORE PACIFIC IN NATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR WHAT I BELIEVE WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT.
RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST OF SAC CITY
THROUGH THE DES MOINES METRO AREA THEN SOUTHEAST TO ABOUT CORYDON.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND A QUICK CHECK OF
SNOWFALL AFTER THREE AND A HALF HOURS OF SNOWFALL REVEALS DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE IS INDEED IN PLACE. THERE IS BARELY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT THE OFFICE. THERE ARE A LOT OF
PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH ARE GIVING MODELS FITS. FIRST IS
THE DISTINCT DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL IMPROVE SOME
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE SATURATES A DEEPER LAYER. THE PROBLEM...IF
YOU CAN BELIEVE THE MODELS AT ALL IS THAT IT WILL COME IN SEVERAL
BOUTS. ANY FORCING THAT COMES ACROSS BEFORE WE CAN SATURATE WILL
YIELD VERY LITTLE SNOWFALL. HOWEVER IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY PICK UP AROUND AN
INCH PERHAPS LOCALLY TWO. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS EXPAND THE PRECIP
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SO I FEEL CONFIDENT IS EXPANDING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE NAM12 HAS HIGHER SNOWFALL IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WHILE THE HRRR HAS A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. OTHER HI-RES MODELS VARY FROM
ALMOST NOTHING AT ALL BEING A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE EXPANSION
EAST.
I TRIED TO TIE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO LOCATIONS WHERE IT APPEARED FORCING
WOULD BE STRONGER FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AND WHERE MOISTURE WAS
DEEPER.
AS FOR TEMPS...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE BY UP TO A CATEGORY. I CANNOT SEE
US CLIMBING MUCH TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. A CHECK OF
ROAD SURFACE TEMPS INDICATES ROAD SURFACES HAVE COOLED TO WELL BELOW
FREEZING SO TO BE PROACTIVE WE WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OUT TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY...SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY S/WV WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER
TONIGHT AND SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ENDING...BUT ALL
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE MORNING.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. CHANGES ARE IN THE
WORKS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS NORTH. HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BEING PUSHED TO THE NORTH OF IA. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING
QUICKLY ON WED AND THU. KEPT THE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND HAVE
MOVED IT INTO THE SWRN ZONES LATE WED NIGHT WITH STRONG WAA AND
ARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLD THUNDER
ON TAP FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA THU WITH ELEVATED CAPE OVER THE
SOUTH REACHING ABOUT 500 J/KG. LOW WILL PULL OUT THU NIGHT WITH A
MIX OF -RASN. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE INTENSE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...IT WILL NEEDED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
BEHIND THE LOW.
FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH SUB-NORMAL TEMPS. WARMING WILL SET IN
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS BY SUN AND MON. ECMWF
A BIT FASTER WITH THE WARMING AND BRINGS 70S INTO THE STATE BY
SUN...THE GFS A BIT SLOWER AND HOLDS THEM OFF UNTIL MON. EITHER
WAS A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF WARMER AIR IS SLATED FOR LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT.
&&
.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SNOW DIMINISHING AT THE PRESENT BUT THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
FURTHER. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS LIKELY ACROSS TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH TODAY BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. LOWER CLOUDS
WERE FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND NOT EXPANDING SO THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN
TAFS. THOSE MAY NEED TO BE HANDLED WITH AMD/S IF THEY EXPAND...
THOUGH I AM NOT EXPECTING THAT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS MAR 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS MAR 14
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
358 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY FOLLOWED ONE LAST
SURGE OF POLAR AIR ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. PATTERN WILL UNDER GO A CHANCE ONCE THE EAST COAST LOW
PUSHES OUT OF THE WAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH IA THU NIGHT WITH ONLY A WEAK PUSH OF COOLER
AIR BEHIND IT WITH THE NEXT HIGH BEING MORE PACIFIC IN NATURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR WHAT I BELIEVE WILL BE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT.
RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST OF SAC CITY
THROUGH THE DES MOINES METRO AREA THEN SOUTHEAST TO ABOUT CORYDON.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND A QUICK CHECK OF
SNOWFALL AFTER THREE AND A HALF HOURS OF SNOWFALL REVEALS DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE IS INDEED IN PLACE. THERE IS BARELY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT THE OFFICE. THERE ARE A LOT OF
PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH ARE GIVING MODELS FITS. FIRST IS
THE DISTINCT DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL IMPROVE SOME
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE SATURATES A DEEPER LAYER. THE PROBLEM...IF
YOU CAN BELIEVE THE MODELS AT ALL IS THAT IT WILL COME IN SEVERAL
BOUTS. ANY FORCING THAT COMES ACROSS BEFORE WE CAN SATURATE WILL
YIELD VERY LITTLE SNOWFALL. HOWEVER IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY PICK UP AROUND AN
INCH PERHAPS LOCALLY TWO. ALL THE HI-RES MODELS EXPAND THE PRECIP
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SO I FEEL CONFIDENT IS EXPANDING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE NAM12 HAS HIGHER SNOWFALL IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WHILE THE HRRR HAS A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. OTHER HI-RES MODELS VARY FROM
ALMOST NOTHING AT ALL BEING A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE EXPANSION
EAST.
I TRIED TO TIE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO LOCATIONS WHERE IT APPEARED FORCING
WOULD BE STRONGER FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AND WHERE MOISTURE WAS
DEEPER.
AS FOR TEMPS...WENT BELOW GUIDANCE BY UP TO A CATEGORY. I CANNOT SEE
US CLIMBING MUCH TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. A CHECK OF
ROAD SURFACE TEMPS INDICATES ROAD SURFACES HAVE COOLED TO WELL BELOW
FREEZING SO TO BE PROACTIVE WE WILL HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
OUT TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY...SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY S/WV WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER
TONIGHT AND SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE ENDING...BUT ALL
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE MORNING.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. CHANGES ARE IN THE
WORKS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS NORTH. HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BEING PUSHED TO THE NORTH OF IA. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING
QUICKLY ON WED AND THU. KEPT THE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND HAVE
MOVED IT INTO THE SWRN ZONES LATE WED NIGHT WITH STRONG WAA AND
ARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLD THUNDER
ON TAP FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA THU WITH ELEVATED CAPE OVER THE
SOUTH REACHING ABOUT 500 J/KG. LOW WILL PULL OUT THU NIGHT WITH A
MIX OF -RASN. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE INTENSE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...IT WILL NEEDED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
BEHIND THE LOW.
FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH SUB-NORMAL TEMPS. WARMING WILL SET IN
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS BY SUN AND MON. ECMWF
A BIT FASTER WITH THE WARMING AND BRINGS 70S INTO THE STATE BY
SUN...THE GFS A BIT SLOWER AND HOLDS THEM OFF UNTIL MON. EITHER
WAS A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF WARMER AIR IS SLATED FOR LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT.
&&
.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND INTO CENTRAL IOWA...BUT AS ANTICIPATED LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS
PROVING DIFFICULT FOR THE PRECIP TO OVERCOME AND SNOW IS NOT YET
BEING OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT THAT EVENTUALLY THE LOW
LEVELS WILL SATURATE AND CLOUDS HIGHS WILL LOWER...WITH MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT SUNRISE AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH IN TIMING OR CIG
HEIGHTS SO HAVE NOT TAKEN THEM TOO LOW IN THE 06Z TAFS. THESE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS MAR 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS MAR 14
AVIATION...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
252 PM MDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 24 2014
AS OF 2 P.M. MDT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A DENSELY
POPULATED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA...WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NO SIGNIFICANT RADAR RETURNS WERE OBSERVED AS
DRY CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS STRONGER AREA OF THE JET MOVES DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHER VORTICITY POCKET WILL HELP CREATE LIFT
TO GENERATE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM
THE WEST TO BRING CLEARING SKIES TO AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STAY A BIT WARMER FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER TEENS WITH THE AREAS OF CLEARING CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR THE DEW POINTS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AT THE SURFACE APPROACHING ONE HUNDRED PERCENT...WHICH
COULD CREATE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AREAS
WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 27. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES
WARMING IN THE MID MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING RAPID CLOUD CLEARING
WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD
TOMORROW...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO STATE BOUNDARY AS
WARM FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS WILL BRING THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES. PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION IS NEXT TO NONE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT MON MAR 24 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING EXPECTED TO BE DOMINANT
FORCING MECHANISM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AS A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS BEGINS TO INFLUENCE
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND
POSITION OF WEAK DRY LINE EXPECTED TO BISECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S TO THE WEST OF
IT...WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING TO THE 15 PERCENT. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS...DRY FUELS AND WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WATCH OR WARNING AS THIS TIME
NEARS...BUT CURRENTLY IS A BIT TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO WARRANT A
WATCH AT THIS POINT. TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE...STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AS A NARROW AREA OF INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS ALONG IT. WILL LIKELY SEE A WEAK STORM OR TWO DEVELOP IN
THIS AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT STRONG OR
WIDESPREAD STORMS ATTM. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AS PER 1.5 PVU PRESSURE
ANOMALY...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF FORCED ASCENT...MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN CWA.
MODELS REALLY DIVERGE ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...RANGING FROM ONE
STRONG PERIOD OF FORCING TO SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL WAVES LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND ENSEMBLE DATA FURTHER RAISING UNCERTAINTY...AM GOING TO KEEP
GENERAL FORECAST INTACT AND LIMIT POPS TO THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.
IN THE EXTENDED (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS BROAD RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF THE ENSEMBLES REMAIN QUITE HIGH DURING THE
PERIOD...OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN LEADS ME TO
LEAN TOWARDS WARMER SOLUTIONS. OVERALL QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE AS THE TEMPS RISE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT MON MAR 24 2014
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS
WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER AT KMCK WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH OVERCAST CEILINGS...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WIND SHIFTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 24 2014
AS OF 2 P.M. MDT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A DENSELY
POPULATED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA...WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NO SIGNIFICANT RADAR RETURNS WERE OBSERVED AS
DRY CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS STRONGER AREA OF THE JET MOVES DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHER VORTICITY POCKET WILL HELP CREATE LIFT
TO GENERATE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM
THE WEST TO BRING CLEARING SKIES TO AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STAY A BIT WARMER FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE UPPER TEENS WITH THE AREAS OF CLEARING CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR THE DEW POINTS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AT THE SURFACE APPROACHING ONE HUNDRED PERCENT...WHICH
COULD CREATE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AREAS
WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 27. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES
WARMING IN THE MID MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING RAPID CLOUD CLEARING
WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD
TOMORROW...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO STATE BOUNDARY AS
WARM FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS WILL BRING THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES. PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION IS NEXT TO NONE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT MON MAR 24 2014
LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON
THURSDAY...WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WENT AHEAD AND ACCEPTED THE ALLBLEND FOR PRECIP SINCE IT
GAVE AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES. INITIAL PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE
RAIN...WHICH WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME WITH AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH TO A HALF AN INCH. THESE VALUES MAY CHANGE AS THE MODELS
DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM BETTER IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING...THE WEAK RIDGE SETS UP AND A FEW MINOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE CWA. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH
THESE WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH...SO LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED DRY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT MON MAR 24 2014
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS
WITH LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER AT KMCK WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH OVERCAST CEILINGS...BUT HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WIND SHIFTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1022 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUES TO OFF CAPE COD WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MINOR
TEMP/DEWPT ADJUSTMENTS. NO CHANGES TO WINTER HAZARDS NEC OTHER
THAN CANCELLING ROW OF COUNTIES AT WRN EDGE OF ADVSRYS. ISOLTD
REPORTS TO WARNG CRITERIA ARE PSBL OVR GRASSY AREAS...WITH
MAJORITY OF ROAD REPORTS COMING IN AT ADVSRY OR SUB-ADVSRY
CRITERIA WITH SFC TEMPS STILL STRUGGLING TO FALL TO FREEZING (AVGG
IN THE MID 30S). MID-LEVEL CONVERG/FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. THE SNOW WILL END FRM W TO E BY THE ERLY
OVRNGT HRS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
***WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN NECK/ERN SHORE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS***
WINTER-LIKE PD OF WX THROUGH THE OVRNGT HRS ACRS THE FA. PCPN
INLAND ASSOCIATED W/ APPROACHING UPR LVL S/W FM THE W HAS GENLY
DISSIPATED THIS AFTN...AND THE ACTION NOW SHIFTS TO THE E/CST THIS
EVE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS AS STM OFFSHORE INTENSIFIES WHILE TRACKING
NE. LARGE AREA OF PCPN...MNLY RA SPREADING THROUGH ERN VA (FM I 95
TO THE CST)...FREEZING LVL BTWN 1000-1300 FT...SO OTHER THAN THE
WARM LYR IN LOWEST LVLS...PROFILES SUPPORT A SN EVENT FOR THE ERN
PORTION OF THE FA.
DECENT COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO SN ON PORTIONS OF THE LWR MD ERN SHR
ATTM...XPCG AS STM CONTS TO INTENSIFY THIS EVE OFF THE CST AND
ARRIVAL OF S/W FM THE W...COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE BACKSIDE
OF THE STM...RESULTING IN TRANSITION OF ANY RA TO ALL SN...ESP FM
THE NRN NECK/MIDDLE PENISULA IN VA TO THE ERN SHORE. THE SN WILL
FALL HEAVY AT TIMES...ESP ON THE ERN SHORE. TEMPS WILL RMN
MARGINAL FOR TOO MUCH ACCUMULATION ON ROAD SURFACES THROUGH EARLY
EVE...THEN LOSS OF THE EFFECT OF SUN AND TEMPS NR FREEZING SHOULD
RESULT IN RAPID DETERIORATION. WILL KEEP ADVISORIES IN
PLACE...ACCUMS AVGG 1 TO 4 INCHES...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
PLACES ON THE ERN SHORE RECEIVING SLGTLY HIGHER ACCUMS (AND PSBL
UPGRADE TO A WARNING).
INLAND (OR W OF I 95)...MNLY LGT/SPOTTY PCPN...MIX RA/SN W/ LTL
OR NO ACCUM.
AFT MIDNIGHT...TURNING WINDY...AND COLD(ER) W/ PCPN (SN) PULLING OFF
THE CST (AND ENDING). LO TEMPS FM THE L20S WELL INLAND TO THE
U20S/ARND 30F NR THE CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HI PRES IS SLO TO BUILD INTO THE RGN WED. STARTING OUT
BRISK/WINDY AND COLD (WIND CHILLS DOWN IN THE TEENS MOST PLACES AT
LEAST FOR A SHORT PD IN THE MRNG HRS). NW WNDS XPCD TO GUST TO 30
TO 45 MPH ERN PORTION...20 TO 25 MPH INLAND...THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH IN THE AFTN. OTRW...XPCG PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40-45 F...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S ON
THE MD ERN SHORE. HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD WED NIGHT...RESULTING IN
NEAR RECORD COLD. WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOW-MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED..WITH SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.
THE HI SHIFTS OFF THE CST BY THU AFTN...RESULTING IN THE START OF
ANOTHER MODERATING TREND AS WNDS BECOME S. SUNNY TO START...THEN
SOME INCRS IN CLDNS IN THE AFTN AHD OF NEXT SYS DEVELOPING (WELL)
W OF THE MTNS. HIGHS GENLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WEST OF CHES
BAY...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ERN SHORE AND ALONG THE COAST.
AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE W...WARMING ON SSW WNDS
XPCD THU NGT INTO FRI. WILL HOLD OFF ON INCRSD POPS ON FRI UNTIL
MID/LT MRNG W...AFT NOON TO THE E. LOW TEMPS THU NGT MNLY IN THE
L/M40S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE DELMARVA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WETTER WITH THE SYSTEM SATURDAY WHERE THE GFS
IS SLOWER AND MAINTAINS A DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT
LEAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW AND WARMED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AT
SOME POINT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAIN DOWN THE
EXACT 6 HOUR PERIOD WHERE RAIN WILL BE LIKELY. PRECIP TYPE WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE MILDER AND THE
LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTER HIGHS AROUND 70 SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL TREND DOWN TO THE
UPPER 50S/MID 60S SUNDAY...BEFORE RISING TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70 MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD LARGELY BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OFF THE COAST AND MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS WITH PCPN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL
HOURS OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SNOW CONTINUES AT SBY AND ANY RAIN
ELSEWHERE WILL SLOWLY TURN OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
SKIES RAPIDLY CLEAR DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY GUST TO 30 TO
35 KNOTS AT SBY AND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT THE REST OF THE SITES.
USED VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING HRRR TO TIME PCPN ENDING. EXPECT PCPN
TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS BUT CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EARLY MORNING AT SBY. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT SBY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WX CONTINUES THRU THU. THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR
SHOWERS FRI THRU SAT WITH RAIN DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
EVIDENCED BY ~6.5MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS OFF THE COAST OF THE NC OUTER
BANKS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. STRONG CAA THEN DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GALE FLAGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE YORK...RAPPAHANNOCK...AND UPPER
JAMES...WHICH REMAIN AS AN SCA. A N TO NW WIND OF 25-30KT WITH GUSTS
TO 35-40KT IS EXPECTED WHERE GALE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-9FT...WITH 4-5FT WAVES OVER THE BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY PULLS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10-15KT BAY AND SRN OCEAN/15-20KT NRN
OCEAN PREVAILS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ099-
100.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ077-
078-085.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-
652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/MAS
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/JAO
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
717 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
SRN HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC...ACYC WNW WINDS PREVAILED THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. IN THE COLD
AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -23C...DIURNAL CLOUD AND
FLURRIES HAD DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION HAS OCCURRED SINCE EARLY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO DIMINISH AND THE CLOUDS TO ALSO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP.
WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.10 INCH...EXPECT TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO
VALUES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT THE TYPICAL INTERIOR COLD
SPOTS. LOOK FOR LOWS BELOW ZERO OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE U.P. AND
IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR.
WEDNESDAY...WAA WILL DEVELOP AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES. DESPITE
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...THE COMBINATION OF SRLY FLOW AND
LIMITED SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 20 TO AROUND
30. DURING THE AFTERNOON 285K-290K ISENTRROPIC LIFT MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE DRY LOWER
LEVELS...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED LATE OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
CONTROL THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS LOW...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 989MB IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AT 00Z THURSDAY...WILL
SLIDE AN ELONGATED TROUGH NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT
THE SAME TIME. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES
EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
THURSDAY...BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE 850-600MB LEVELS AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE THE 275-295K SFCS WILL SLIDE
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW TO SLIDE INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN GET
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE WAA BECOMES MAXIMIZED/FOCUSED THERE. QPF IN THESE WAA EVENTS IS
ALWAYS TRICKY AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING ON THE EXACT
AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...SO HAVE FOCUSED ON WHERE THE FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF. IN ADDITION FOR THE
EAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING COLD AIR WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OFF THE PATCH OF OPEN WATER OVER NORTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN TO
LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT OF ENHANCEMENT. OVERALL...HAVE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.5-2.5 INCHES FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ALONG THE WI BORDER AND THE HIGHEST OVER THE KEWEENAW
AND LUCE COUNTIES. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
DEEP MOISTURE CUTTING OUT FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE SITUATION
UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CAN WARM ON THURSDAY MORNING.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE CWA WHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST
SOLUTION AND MOVING THE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE NAM IS WAY TO THE NW. THE 12Z
GEM/ECMWF MEANWHILE ARE MUCH SLOWER AND TRACK THE LOW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OF LOWER MICHIGAN RESPECTIVELY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXTREMELY WELL CLUSTERED 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ON THE LOW TRACK...HAVE A HARD TIME GOING MUCH AWAY FROM THAT IDEA
ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF WAS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THUS...LIKE YESTERDAY
WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER IDEA FOR TIMING AND THEN A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEM FOR THE LOW TRACK.
AS FOR HOW THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVOLVE...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
WAA PRECIPITATION CONTINING INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE EASTERN
CWA...BUT MODELS DO HINT AT THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO CUT
OUT OVER THE REST OF WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA AND WOULD EXPECT A
TRANSITION AWAY FROM SNOW AND TOWARDS A MIX OR RAIN/DRIZZLE. THAT
SIMILAR IDEA OF LIQUID PRECIP FOR THE MORNING SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER BELOW THE
FAVORED ICE CRYSTAL TEMPERATURES. SINCE THIS IDEA HAS BEEN SHOWN
OVER THE LAST DAY...TRANSITIONED THAT AREA TO MORE RAIN/DRIZZLE THAN
SNOW FOR THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AT INITIALLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO THERE
COULD BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WITH SOME
SNOW LIKELY OCCURRING EARLIER THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. FARTHER
WEST...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE A STRONG BAND OF PRECIPITATION
(MAINLY SNOW) ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS BAND
WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SHIFT EAST AND ONSHORE OVER THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
EASTWARD SHIFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AND WOULD EXPECT SOME INTENSIFICATION OF
THE BAND DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PULL NORTHEAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR CWA WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT WAVE...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME
INFLUENCE. THEN AS THE LOW PULLS OUT OF LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND
SHOULD BE MAINLY OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW UNDER THE NW WINDS ON FRIDAY OVER THE NW/NC U.P.
BUT WITH LITTLE HELP FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT (MARGINAL 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -10C)...LITTLE OPEN WATER...AND DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH POPS FRIDAY MORNING.
NOW FOR PCPN AMOUNTS/TYPE. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 0.33-0.66 (HEAVIEST EAST)...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY BANDED LOCATIONS ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH DIFFERING IDEAS FROM THE MODELS ON HOW TO
HANDLE THE LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING...HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH HOW
MUCH RAIN TO PUT IN THE FORECAST. GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WARMEST
THERMAL PROFILE AND WOULD PUT RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ECMWF/GFS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE THE FASTER GFS
QUICKLY PULLS COLD AIR INTO THE CWA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN/TROUGH AS MAINLY SNOW
AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE EXPECTED INTENSITY AS THAT
STRONGER BAND MOVES THROUGH. BEFORE THE TROUGH ARRIVES AND THE
EXPECTED LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE...WILL HOLD ONTO SOME RAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SHIFT IT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL (MENOMINEE COUNTY)...THINK THEY WOULD HAVE BEST OPPORTUNITY
TO SEE AT LEAST HALF OF THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP AS RAIN UNTIL
THE COLD AIR SURGES IN THURSDAY EVENING. THE P-TYPE MAKES THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TRICKY...BUT THE GOING FORECAST HAS 1-4 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE THE PRECIP WILL
BE ALL SNOW (KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND LUCE COUNTY). WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HWO...ALTHOUGH ADJUST THE WORDING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ALL IN ALL...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE AN ADVISORY TYPE
EVENT.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER HEADING INTO SATURDAY. A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY. ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
HANDLE HIGHS WELL THIS DAY (MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN)...WHILE THE GFS IS HEAVILY BIASED BY ITS SNOW COVER
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON GEM/ECMWF TEMPS FOR
HIGHS.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THERMAL PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER MORE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF DIGGING IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH (MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY) WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS IT IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL BLEND OF THE TWO FOR NOW. BEHIND THE WAVE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ENDING WITH SKIES
CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO 18 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND 0Z...BUT THIS SHOULD
END SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS THE SUN SETS AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN. ALL SAID...CIGS AND VSBYS TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST WITH WINDS BELOW 12 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF THE LOW...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THEN...EXPECT NRLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FM THE WEST FRI AFTERNOON INTO
SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
438 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS.
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TO FAR NW MN. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
19Z TEMPS ONLY RANGED FROM 0F TO 5F. AT THE SFC...WRLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW PREVAILED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ONLY SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU/SC
OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES SOME WEAK Q-VECT CONV...SFC-700 MB MOISTENING AND LOW
LEVEL CONV SHOULD SUPPORT SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...PER
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GREATEST PCPN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE EVEN SMALL GAPS IN THE ICE COVER WILL ADD
HEAT/INSTABILITY. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE PCPN. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BUT A FEW BLO ZERO READINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FCST AREA WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE EVENING.
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE BUILD INTO THE WRN
LAKES...THE 850-700 MB MOISTURE DEPARTS AND WINDS BACK TO
WRLY...EXPECT THE PCPN TO DIMINISH WITH ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING OF
ACCUMULATION AT MOST. WITH 925/850 MB TEMPS ONLY TO AROUND
-16/-22C...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE MID TEENS...MORE THAN 20
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE AND SPRING LIKE PATTERN.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS
FOR CLOUDS LINGERING...BUT WITH THE VERY LIMITED OPEN WATER ON LAKE
SUPERIOR WOULD THINK THERE IS A LACK OF SUPPORT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS TO LINGER. THUS...WOULD EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND A DECENT
OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.
SINCE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL...OPTED TO TREND
TEMPS DOWN (BASED OFF THE LAST TWO NIGHTS OF LOWS)...ESPECIALLY IN
THE TRADITIONAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS. THIS PRODUCES LOWS BELOW ZERO
OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE U.P. AND IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER
THE INTERIOR. BASED OFF THE TRENDS IN THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST REALLY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW TAKING SHAPE
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 20S (AIDED BY MORNING SUNSHINE). BUT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE QUICKLY STREAMING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. COULD EVEN SEE A ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
DEVELOPING UNDER THE MID LEVEL WAA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST WAVE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE CWA. BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 280-295K SFCS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW. AS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...MODELS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS AREA OF
SNOW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST NORTH (OVER LAKE SUPERIOR) AND
WEAKEST...12Z CANADIAN FARTHEST SOUTH (ACROSS THE U.P.) AND
STRONGEST...WHILE THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN. FELT THAT THE GFS WAS A
GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS AND FOLLOWED THAT FOR TIMING
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THAT GIVES A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE CWA (GREATEST NORTH THIRD) THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE AS THE LOW PULLS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING BUT AT LEAST INITIALLY THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS FOR THE LOW...THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE THE LOW
THROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN THE 12Z GEM AND 12Z ECMWF (270MI/520MI
NORTHEAST AT 12Z FRIDAY RESPECTIVELY). THE 12Z GEM WAS MUCH FARTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST AND BROUGHT IN MUCH MORE WARM AIR (0C 850MB LINE IN
FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 00Z FRIDAY). 12Z ECMWF...EVEN WITH
IT/S FARTHER SOUTHWEST LOW TRACK (THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MI ON
FRIDAY) HAS THE 0C 925MB TEMP AREA SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN
UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND...MOVES THE LOW THROUGH SO FAST THAT THE WARM AIR DOESN/T HAVE
TIME TO PULL INTO THE AREA AND KEEPS IT AS ALL SNOW.
ESSENTIALLY...THESE DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE
DISTURBANCE THAT IS WELL OFFSHORE IN THE PACIFIC AND WON/T COME ON
SHORE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PROBABLY BE 24-36HRS BEFORE THE
MODELS CAN LOCK INTO A SOLUTION...BUT FEEL A SEVERAL MEMBER
COMPROMISE IS REASONABLE (GEM/ECMWF FOR TIMING AND GFS/ECMWF/UKMET
FOR TRACK AND ECMWF FOR THERMAL PROFILE). FELT WEIGHTING MORE
HEAVILY TOWARDS THE ECMWF WAS WARRANTED BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY
IN THE LOW TRACK WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THESE DIFFERENCE IN THE LOW TRACK AFFECT BOTH THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA AND ALSO WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCATED WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. AS THE LOW IS TAKING SHAPE ON
THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A TROUGH SETTING UP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND WOULD EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO BE OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AND THE WESTERN LAKE AS IT WILL BE ENHANCED BY
MID-LEVEL FGEN. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WOULD EXPECT THE WAA PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT OUT AND
DIMINISH AND POTENTIALLY CUT OUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE ON THURSDAY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE OF A FOG/DRIZZLE PERIOD...BUT WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW TRACK WILL JUST KEEP THINGS AS SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXED IN AT TIMES. THEN AS THE LOW MOVES UP AND THROUGH THE
AREA...THE HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...THE
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF MESSY TRAVEL/COMMUTES AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN
THE HWO.
BEHIND THE LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF -12C ARE PRETTY MARGINAL
FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT IF POCKETS OF OPEN WATER DEVELOP ON LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS
IN THE 30S.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SERIES OF WAVES COMING FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS AND BRINGING ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST POTENTIAL WAVE LOOKS
TO RUN EAST ON THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SHOULD HAVE A LIMITED AFFECT ON THE LAND CWA. BEHIND THIS
WAVE...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW ISSUES WITH SNOW COVER AND
SURFACE TEMPS...SO WILL LEVERAGE THE CANADIAN/ECMWF FOR HIGHS ON
SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA (EXCEPT OVER THE EAST
WITH WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN) AND THERE IS EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME 50S ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE EXPECTED THERMAL PROFILE...THAT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS RAIN. LIKE THE END OF THIS
WEEK...ANOTHER LOW TAKING SHAPE IN THE PLAINS STATES ON SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT TO THE AREA.
INITIAL THOUGH ON P-TYPE IS FOR A MIX INITIALLY AND TRANSITIONING TO
ALL SNOW THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT CU/SC THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE FROM THE NW IN THE
AFTN...SCT -SHSN WILL THEN LIKELY DEVELOP AT KIWD/KSAW WITH
POTENTIAL OF BRIEF MVFR VIS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD.
COLD/STABILIZING FLOW OFF MOSTLY SNOW/ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
PROBABLY PREVENT -SHSN FROM DEVELOPING AROUND KCMX...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THERE. HOWEVER...BY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONV AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MVFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KT TONIGHT AND 20 TO 30 KTS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIND STRENGTH/DIRECTION
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT AT THIS TIME NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS.
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TO FAR NW MN. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
19Z TEMPS ONLY RANGED FROM 0F TO 5F. AT THE SFC...WRLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW PREVAILED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ONLY SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU/SC
OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES SOME WEAK Q-VECT CONV...SFC-700 MB MOISTENING AND LOW
LEVEL CONV SHOULD SUPPORT SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...PER
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GREATEST PCPN CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE EVEN SMALL GAPS IN THE ICE COVER WILL ADD
HEAT/INSTABILITY. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE PCPN. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BUT A FEW BLO ZERO READINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FCST AREA WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE EVENING.
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE BUILD INTO THE WRN
LAKES...THE 850-700 MB MOISTURE DEPARTS AND WINDS BACK TO
WRLY...EXPECT THE PCPN TO DIMINISH WITH ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING OF
ACCUMULATION AT MOST. WITH 925/850 MB TEMPS ONLY TO AROUND
-16/-22C...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE MID TEENS...MORE THAN 20
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2014
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COLD AIR WILL ALREADY BE OVERHEAD. THE SFC TROUGH
WILL BE OVER FAR E UPPER MI AND LAKE HURON...WITH STEADY NW WINDS
AND 850MB TEMPS ALREADY AT A CHILLY -19C. EXPECT THE COLDEST AIR
OVERHEAD BY MID AFTERNOON /AROUND -20 TO -24C/. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
END OF MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE TEENS
TO NEAR 20F.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. PW VALUES
ACROSS UPPER MI WILL FALL TO 20 TO 35 PERCENT OF NORMAL...LOWEST E.
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR OVERHEAD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY FALL AFTER SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE TO GO TOWARD THE LOW
END OF GUIDANCE VALUES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER
WY/SD/NE/CO. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WAA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES ACROSS MN AND W UPPER MI THROUGH THE DAY IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING HIGH AND NEARING LOW.
THE MAIN SYSTEM OF THE PERIOD STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
IT...BUT IS MOVING TO A CONSENSUS OF 0.7-0.9IN OR MORE LIQUID
BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
ALL SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THURSDAY. IN FACT...A GENERALLY COLDER
TREND LOOKS REALISTIC FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM...EQUATING TO MORE SNOW
AND HIGHER SLR VALUES. HAVE TRENDED BACK ON MIXED PRECIP IN THE
FCST AND HWO...AS EVEN THE 00Z GFS KEEPS ONLY SNOW FOR ALL BUT NEAR
MNM. CURRENTLY HAVE 5 TO NEARLY 12IN OF SNOW FCST FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE TIME NEARS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARNINGS IF FCST TOTALS GET TO 6IN OR MORE IN 12HRS OR
10IN OR MORE IN 24HRS. IT IS A LONGER DURATION EVENT WHICH MAKES
HEADLINES DIFFICULT. AT THIS POINT...3-4 LOOKS LIKELY IN ANY 12HR
PERIOD...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FCST JUMPS UP TO THIS
HIGHER RANGE AS FCST MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION EARLY THIS WEEK.
WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z RUNS...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SLOW
END OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE CANADIAN RUN BACKS UP THE ECMWF. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER...FOR EXAMPLE AT 06Z FRIDAY THE SFC LOW
OFF THE GFS IS OVER LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON...WHILE THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN LOW IS POSITIONED ACROSS S WI AND W IA.
AS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AND
INTO THE 40S FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT CU/SC THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE FROM THE NW IN THE
AFTN...SCT -SHSN WILL THEN LIKELY DEVELOP AT KIWD/KSAW WITH
POTENTIAL OF BRIEF MVFR VIS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD.
COLD/STABILIZING FLOW OFF MOSTLY SNOW/ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
PROBABLY PREVENT -SHSN FROM DEVELOPING AROUND KCMX...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THERE. HOWEVER...BY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONV AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MVFR CIGS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KT TONIGHT AND 20 TO 30 KTS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIND STRENGTH/DIRECTION
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT AT THIS TIME NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE SLIDING ACROSS THE SWRN/SRN CWA AT THIS TIME.
THIS IS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGHER 85/70H LAPSE RATES.
ELSEWHERE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS OCCURRING WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE
WITH PWATS NEAR OR BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. APPROACHING BAND OF
CIRRUS OVER ONTARIO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL TROF. A CORRELATING
SFC COLD FRONT IS WELL DEFINED IN THE 925 THETAE FIELDS ACROSS
CTRL ONTARIO INTO SASK. ONLY MINOR TEAKS MADE TO NDFD/ZFP TODAY AS
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NRN CWA LATER THIS AFTN. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AS NWRLY FLOW DEEPENS WITH MID LVL TROF PASSAGE. PRECIP
COVERAGE STILL LOOKS LIMITED INITIALLY DUE TO VERY DRY AIR HOWEVER
LATEST SNSQ PARAMETER TRENDS SUGGEST HIGHER PROB DEVELOPS FROM 21Z
OVER NRN MN ZONES TO SERN WISC ZONES BY 03Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION WAS ALSO ASSIGNED TO THE PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY NW WINDS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH OVER ERN IA THROUGH MN INTO WRN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD NWLY
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL HELP TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN EMBEDDED S/W OVER THE DAKOTAS
THIS MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC INVERTED TROUGH AROUND SIOUX
CITY WILL MOVE E/SEWD TODAY. A SECOND FEATURE TO THE NORTH ALONG A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE AREA TODAY AS WELL. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WAVES AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AMTS WILL
LIKELY NOT ADD UP TO MUCH...BUT SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER FROM THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND RAP ARE BOTH AT LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WOULD INDICATE POSSIBLE PERIODIC BURSTS OF MDT TO HVY SNOW.
LATEST RAP13 IS ALSO POINTING TOWARD AN AREA TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND NW WI WHERE STRONG UVV IN THE DGZ COULD ALSO LEAD
TO BRIEF LOCALIZED HVY SNOW WITH REDUCED VSBYS. THE COLD/DRY AIR
MASS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY ACCUMULATION OVER AN INCH...AND KEEP
THE SNOW GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE DENDRITES.
THE COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ALSO TRIGGER SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW ON TUESDAY AND HELP LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH CAA
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY TO WARRANT LOW CHC POPS.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND FRONT
RANGE IN ERN MONTANA TODAY A TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL FORM
OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO HELP MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT NW WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH...AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH TODAY. WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY.
AIR MASS TODAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE
ROUGHLY 5 DEG WARMER. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER ON TUESDAY ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
TEENS...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER QUIET WITH THE NORTHLAND BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST. IT WILL BE DRY AND
COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW AROUND OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.
INCREASING WAA AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY...WITH CHANCES GREATEST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AND THE NORTH
SHORE COULD GET SEE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE.
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS START TO AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE GFS/NAM FASTER MOVING A CENTRAL PLAINS LOW NORTHEAST. WE
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM
THE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO IOWA ON THURSDAY AND TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF
DOES BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH A MIX
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPS DO LOOK COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WE HAVE A SNOW/SLEET
MIX GOING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SOME RAIN COULD OCCUR FAR
SOUTH. WE INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. LOWERING STABILITY...INCREASING FGEN...AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM A COUPLED JET ARE ALL FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MORE DETAILS WILL
BE ADDED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK AND HOPEFULLY THE MODELS
WILL CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCREASING WAA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON ITS WARMING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AND HAS A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES
WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER THIRTIES TO MID FORTIES SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING MVFR AND
VFR CIGS IN THE 2 TO 4 KFT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE CIGS
COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR
OR IFR VSBYS. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
MAYBE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE NW WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 24 0 17 0 / 20 20 10 0
INL 19 -7 15 -5 / 30 20 20 0
BRD 27 2 20 -1 / 20 20 0 0
HYR 26 2 18 -8 / 30 20 20 0
ASX 26 4 17 -2 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1053 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE SLIDING ACROSS THE SWRN/SRN CWA AT THIS TIME.
THIS IS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF AN AREA OF HIGHER 85/70H LAPSE RATES.
ELSEWHERE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS OCCURRING WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE
WITH PWATS NEAR OR BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. APPROACHING BAND OF
CIRRUS OVER ONTARIO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL TROF. A CORRELATING
SFC COLD FRONT IS WELL DEFINED IN THE 925 THETAE FIELDS ACROSS
CTRL ONTARIO INTO SASK. ONLY MINOR TEAKS MADE TO NDFD/ZFP TODAY AS
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NRN CWA LATER THIS AFTN. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AS NWRLY FLOW DEEPENS WITH MID LVL TROF PASSAGE. PRECIP
COVERAGE STILL LOOKS LIMITED INITIALLY DUE TO VERY DRY AIR HOWEVER
LATEST SNSQ PARAMETER TRENDS SUGGEST HIGHER PROB DEVELOPS FROM 21Z
OVER NRN MN ZONES TO SERN WISC ZONES BY 03Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION WAS ALSO ASSIGNED TO THE PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY NW WINDS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH OVER ERN IA THROUGH MN INTO WRN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD NWLY
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL HELP TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN EMBEDDED S/W OVER THE DAKOTAS
THIS MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC INVERTED TROUGH AROUND SIOUX
CITY WILL MOVE E/SEWD TODAY. A SECOND FEATURE TO THE NORTH ALONG A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE AREA TODAY AS WELL. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WAVES AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AMTS WILL
LIKELY NOT ADD UP TO MUCH...BUT SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER FROM THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND RAP ARE BOTH AT LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WOULD INDICATE POSSIBLE PERIODIC BURSTS OF MDT TO HVY SNOW.
LATEST RAP13 IS ALSO POINTING TOWARD AN AREA TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND NW WI WHERE STRONG UVV IN THE DGZ COULD ALSO LEAD
TO BRIEF LOCALIZED HVY SNOW WITH REDUCED VSBYS. THE COLD/DRY AIR
MASS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY ACCUMULATION OVER AN INCH...AND KEEP
THE SNOW GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE DENDRITES.
THE COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ALSO TRIGGER SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW ON TUESDAY AND HELP LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH CAA
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY TO WARRANT LOW CHC POPS.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND FRONT
RANGE IN ERN MONTANA TODAY A TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL FORM
OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO HELP MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT NW WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH...AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH TODAY. WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY.
AIR MASS TODAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE
ROUGHLY 5 DEG WARMER. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER ON TUESDAY ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
TEENS...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER QUIET WITH THE NORTHLAND BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST. IT WILL BE DRY AND
COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW AROUND OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.
INCREASING WAA AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY...WITH CHANCES GREATEST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AND THE NORTH
SHORE COULD GET SEE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE.
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS START TO AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE GFS/NAM FASTER MOVING A CENTRAL PLAINS LOW NORTHEAST. WE
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM
THE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO IOWA ON THURSDAY AND TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF
DOES BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH A MIX
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPS DO LOOK COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WE HAVE A SNOW/SLEET
MIX GOING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SOME RAIN COULD OCCUR FAR
SOUTH. WE INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. LOWERING STABILITY...INCREASING FGEN...AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM A COUPLED JET ARE ALL FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MORE DETAILS WILL
BE ADDED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK AND HOPEFULLY THE MODELS
WILL CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCREASING WAA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON ITS WARMING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AND HAS A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES
WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER THIRTIES TO MID FORTIES SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
A COUPLE SHORTWAVES AND A COLD FRONT HAS LED TO SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 2500-4500 FEET...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING
THEM TO 1500 FEET TEMPORARILY. HEATING TODAY WILL LEAD TO MORE
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST...THEN VEER TO NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES TONIGHT IN HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WE THINK THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN WITH CEILINGS FROM 2000-3500 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 24 0 17 0 / 20 20 10 0
INL 19 -7 15 -5 / 30 20 20 0
BRD 27 2 20 -1 / 20 20 0 0
HYR 26 2 18 -8 / 30 20 20 0
ASX 26 4 17 -2 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
639 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION WAS ALSO ASSIGNED TO THE PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY NW WINDS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH OVER ERN IA THROUGH MN INTO WRN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD NWLY
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL HELP TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN EMBEDDED S/W OVER THE DAKOTAS
THIS MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC INVERTED TROUGH AROUND SIOUX
CITY WILL MOVE E/SEWD TODAY. A SECOND FEATURE TO THE NORTH ALONG A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE AREA TODAY AS WELL. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WAVES AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AMTS WILL
LIKELY NOT ADD UP TO MUCH...BUT SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER FROM THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND RAP ARE BOTH AT LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WOULD INDICATE POSSIBLE PERIODIC BURSTS OF MDT TO HVY SNOW.
LATEST RAP13 IS ALSO POINTING TOWARD AN AREA TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND NW WI WHERE STRONG UVV IN THE DGZ COULD ALSO LEAD
TO BRIEF LOCALIZED HVY SNOW WITH REDUCED VSBYS. THE COLD/DRY AIR
MASS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY ACCUMULATION OVER AN INCH...AND KEEP
THE SNOW GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE DENDRITES.
THE COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ALSO TRIGGER SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW ON TUESDAY AND HELP LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH CAA
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY TO WARRANT LOW CHC POPS.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND FRONT
RANGE IN ERN MONTANA TODAY A TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL FORM
OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO HELP MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT NW WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH...AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH TODAY. WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY.
AIR MASS TODAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE
ROUGHLY 5 DEG WARMER. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER ON TUESDAY ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
TEENS...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER QUIET WITH THE NORTHLAND BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST. IT WILL BE DRY AND
COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW AROUND OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.
INCREASING WAA AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY...WITH CHANCES GREATEST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AND THE NORTH
SHORE COULD GET SEE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE.
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS START TO AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE GFS/NAM FASTER MOVING A CENTRAL PLAINS LOW NORTHEAST. WE
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM
THE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO IOWA ON THURSDAY AND TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF
DOES BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH A MIX
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPS DO LOOK COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WE HAVE A SNOW/SLEET
MIX GOING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SOME RAIN COULD OCCUR FAR
SOUTH. WE INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. LOWERING STABILITY...INCREASING FGEN...AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM A COUPLED JET ARE ALL FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MORE DETAILS WILL
BE ADDED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK AND HOPEFULLY THE MODELS
WILL CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCREASING WAA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON ITS WARMING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AND HAS A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES
WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER THIRTIES TO MID FORTIES SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
A COUPLE SHORTWAVES AND A COLD FRONT HAS LED TO SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 2500-4500 FEET...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING
THEM TO 1500 FEET TEMPORARILY. HEATING TODAY WILL LEAD TO MORE
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST...THEN VEER TO NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES TONIGHT IN HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WE THINK THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN WITH CEILINGS FROM 2000-3500 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 24 0 17 0 / 20 20 10 0
INL 19 -7 15 -5 / 30 20 20 0
BRD 27 2 20 -1 / 20 20 0 0
HYR 26 2 18 -8 / 30 20 20 0
ASX 26 4 17 -2 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
348 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION WAS ALSO ASSIGNED TO THE PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY NW WINDS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH OVER ERN IA THROUGH MN INTO WRN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD NWLY
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL HELP TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN EMBEDDED S/W OVER THE DAKOTAS
THIS MORNING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC INVERTED TROUGH AROUND SIOUX
CITY WILL MOVE E/SEWD TODAY. A SECOND FEATURE TO THE NORTH ALONG A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE AREA TODAY AS WELL. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WAVES AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AMTS WILL
LIKELY NOT ADD UP TO MUCH...BUT SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER FROM THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND RAP ARE BOTH AT LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WOULD INDICATE POSSIBLE PERIODIC BURSTS OF MDT TO HVY SNOW.
LATEST RAP13 IS ALSO POINTING TOWARD AN AREA TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND NW WI WHERE STRONG UVV IN THE DGZ COULD ALSO LEAD
TO BRIEF LOCALIZED HVY SNOW WITH REDUCED VSBYS. THE COLD/DRY AIR
MASS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY ACCUMULATION OVER AN INCH...AND KEEP
THE SNOW GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE DENDRITES.
THE COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ALSO TRIGGER SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W/NW ON TUESDAY AND HELP LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH CAA
OCCURRING THROUGH THE DAY TO WARRANT LOW CHC POPS.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND FRONT
RANGE IN ERN MONTANA TODAY A TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL FORM
OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO HELP MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT NW WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH...AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH TODAY. WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY.
AIR MASS TODAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE
ROUGHLY 5 DEG WARMER. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER ON TUESDAY ANOTHER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
TEENS...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER QUIET WITH THE NORTHLAND BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST. IT WILL BE DRY AND
COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW AROUND OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.
INCREASING WAA AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY...WITH CHANCES GREATEST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AND THE NORTH
SHORE COULD GET SEE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE.
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS START TO AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE GFS/NAM FASTER MOVING A CENTRAL PLAINS LOW NORTHEAST. WE
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM
THE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO IOWA ON THURSDAY AND TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF
DOES BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH A MIX
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPS DO LOOK COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WE HAVE A SNOW/SLEET
MIX GOING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SOME RAIN COULD OCCUR FAR
SOUTH. WE INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. LOWERING STABILITY...INCREASING FGEN...AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM A COUPLED JET ARE ALL FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MORE DETAILS WILL
BE ADDED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK AND HOPEFULLY THE MODELS
WILL CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN. INCREASING WAA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON ITS WARMING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AND HAS A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM THE MID TWENTIES TO LOWER THIRTIES
WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER THIRTIES TO MID FORTIES SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL
DRIFT INTO CENTRAL MN...MOVING INTO THE KBRD AREA MAINLY AFTER 12Z.
THE LOWERING CEILINGS AND SNOW WILL OVER TAKE THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE SOUTH...AS WELL AS THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. KDLH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS UNTIL THE
LATE AFTERNOON. ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH
AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 24 0 17 0 / 20 20 10 0
INL 19 -7 15 -5 / 30 20 20 0
BRD 27 2 20 -1 / 20 20 0 0
HYR 26 2 18 -8 / 30 20 20 0
ASX 26 4 17 -2 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING/MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1011 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.UPDATE...QUICK LOOK AT THE NAM AND RUC INDICATE THAT APPRECIABLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTH WITH ONLY THE CLOUD
DECK REMAINING...IT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LATER AS WELL. HAVE...THEREFORE...
REMOVED POPS FROM SOUTHERN AREAS. HAD TO ALSO MAKE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AS
INDICATED IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA./26/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10KTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT./15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014/
...LATE SEASON FREEZE EXPECTED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...
SHORT TERM...TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS THIS SHORT TERM
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LATE SEASON FREEZE EVENT EXPECTED FOR TUE NIGHT.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN
EVOLUTION THROUGH MID WEEK. A COOLER THAN AVG AIRMASS IS NOW OVER
THE REGION AS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A COLDER PUSH OF AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY TUE AS A S/WV ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HELPS DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM
OVER THE NE US. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE TUE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED JUST TO OUR N/NE. DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT MOST OF THE CWA TO SEE FREEZING OR
SUB FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE COLDEST AND LONGEST SUB FREEZING
READINGS WILL BE OVER THE NE HALF OF THE CWA SOME WITH LOWS 26-28
DEGREES AND SUB FREEZING TEMPS LASTING SOME 3-8 HRS. THESE SORT OF
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE DAMAGING TO TENDER VEGETATION AND VARIOUS
BUDDING PLANTS. THE CURRENT HWO/GRAPHICS SHOW THIS WELL AND NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED.
AS FOR TODAY AND THE OTHER FORECAST PERIODS...MODELS DO SHOW SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 300K LAYER TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT THIS DOESN`T APPEAR DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP. BASED OFF VARIOUS GUIDANCE...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN
TO SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. ONLY VERY LIGHT
ACTIVITY WOULD OCCUR IF ANY CAN DEVELOP AT ALL. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
BELOW AVG AND RANGE BETWEEN 60-65 DEGREES. TEMPS WERE TWEAKED TO THE
WARMER NAM GUID. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY. MOST OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE IS OFFERING MID/UPPER 30S. I FEEL MID 30S WILL BE TOUGH AS
THE AREA SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE A BIT WHILE THE REINFORCING
FRONT MOVES IN. DUE TO THIS...VALUES WERE TWEAKED UPWARD A FEW
DEGREES. LASTLY...WITH STRONG CAA IN PLACE TUE...FOLLOWED THE COOLER
EURO GUIDANCE WHICH MATCHED THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT BETTER. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH AS DEEP
MIXING OCCURS. /CME/
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE ON THE LATE SEASON FREEZE AT THE VERY
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A NEAR SEASONABLE
WEEKEND TEMP WISE WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
A DANGEROUS LATE SEASON FREEZE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST LINGERING THROUGH 8-9AM THAT WILL IMPACT SENSITIVE
VEGETATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MOST EXTREME IMPACTS EXPECTED
IN THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION. AMPLE SUN WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A
DECENT WARM UP BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AT THIS TIME... WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
SYNOPTICLY, H7-H5 RIDGING WILL BREAKDOWN LATE WEDNESDAY AS SW FLOW
AND A LOW AMPLITUDE S/WV TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THAT
WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH PWATS
STAYING UNDER ONE INCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COINCIDENTALLY, A
STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID WEST WITH STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND PWATS INCREASE TOWARDS 1.5" BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS INCREASED DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER TOP STRONGLY
SHEARED WIND FIELDS AND MUCAPE VALUES NEARING 1000 J/KG WITH
SUPPORTIVE VT`S AND SHOWALTERS, TRENDS ARE INCREASING FOR SOME MORE
POTENT THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 THURS EVENING
AND NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR NOW AND NOT INTRODUCE ANYTHING
IN HWO/GRAPHICS FOR THURS NIGHT. INCREASED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FOR
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG PERIOD WITH RAIN TAPERING DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AS WAVE EXITS EAST.
FOR THE WEEKEND, EC/GEM REMAIN MORE CONSOLIDATED AND IN MORE
AGREEMENT TOWARDS GEFS VS. THE OP GFS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EC/GEM
CAMP WHICH ADVERTISES STRONGER TROUGHING AND THUS SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK CAA WHILE KEEPING AREA DRIER AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...ECX TEMPS WERE FAVORED OR AT LEAST WEIGHTED
HEAVILY TOWARDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SIZABLE CUTS MADE
DURING THE WEEKEND BELOW THE WARM MEX GUIDANCE. LOWS FRIDAY WERE
BUMPED UP OVER HIGH MENGFS TEMPS TO BE INLINE WITH RAW DEWPOINTS.
/ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. /CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 64 38 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 65 37 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 64 38 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 65 42 64 32 / 9 4 0 0
NATCHEZ 62 40 62 33 / 4 1 0 0
GREENVILLE 60 37 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 62 36 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1145 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...ACCOMPANIED
BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 1000 PM A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ELMIRA TO FT DRUM...WITH THIS
FRONT POISED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE
HAVE ONLY BEEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ITSELF...WITH THE STEADIEST SNOW SHOWERS COMING BEHIND THE FRONT.
A LARGE PART OF THIS IS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOL RAPIDLY. THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING IS POST-FRONTAL AND
SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -12C...WITH COLDER AIR ON ITS HEELS.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...WHILE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW. WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF
UPSTREAM...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE ICE ON LAKE ERIE...SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE THERE TOO. IN TERMS
OF GUIDANCE...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE RGEM SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE POST-FRONTAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
A COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE MULTI BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT STREAMERS ALSO LIKELY
COMING OFF LAKE ERIE AS WELL. THE STEADIEST SNOWS WILL COME LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. IN GENERAL...THE MULTI BANDED STRUCTURE SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE INCH OR TWO RANGE. UPSLOPING OR
LOCALIZED BANDING MAY PRODUCE SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS...BUT THESE
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. OUTSIDE OF THESE LAKE
AREAS...AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE DRY
WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SLOWLY FADING TO SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN A FEW
SPOTS...BUT LAKE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN MOST AREAS. TOMORROW WILL BE COLD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE RECORD LOW MAXES. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. EVEN IN A COLD AIRMASS THE HIGHER
LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE CAN STILL BRING SOME WARMTH TO THE SURFACE.
WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL STILL PLACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE RECORD LOW MAXES FOR MARCH 26TH ARE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO 23/1894...ROCHESTER 22/1923...WATERTOWN 27/1972.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAMP UP
QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME...TO OVER 50 KNOTS BY LATE THURSDAY...
FORCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER A
RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY UNDER
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 40S...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY LINGER IN THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
FOCUSED JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT BULK
OF THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
MAY VERY WELL TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK PRIOR
TO 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS
THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE EARLIER SEEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC RUNS BEGINNING TO DECREASE WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE STEADIEST RAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z FRIDAY.
THE RAINFALL...ABOUT A HALF INCH ON AVERAGE AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AROUND 50 FRIDAY COULD POSE SOME ICE BREAKUP
AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING ISSUES. THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS LAST PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST
12Z GFS ALONG WITH 00Z ECMWF...SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z
CANADIAN SHOWING THE SURFACE WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD
SPREAD A SHIELD OF STEADY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY. GFS THERMAL PROFILES EVEN SUGGEST
A PREDOMINATELY SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE THOUGH...AND
WILL HAVE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANY HOPE OF
PINNING DOWN THE SATURDAY FORECAST.
CONDITIONS DO LOOK TO IMPROVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MILDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE REGION DURING THIS TIME WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 40S...AND INTO THE 50S MONDAY WITH SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS PERHAPS TOPPING 60 DEGREES. NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 03Z TAF CYCLE WILL START OFF WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER WITH LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE NORTH EXPECT THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH MVFR CIGS. MEANWHILE...SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR OR LOWER IN VSBY 2SM OR
LESS AT TIMES TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER MOST OF THE DAY...WITH CONTINUED MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL LIFTING OF THE INVERSION AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT AND SCATTER IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY
AND WINDY.
SATURDAY...MVFR IN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT
AND COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL POUR OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS COLDER...AND BLUSTERY AIRMASS WILL KICK UP WAVES
ON LAKE ONTARIO SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES TO DROP BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1133 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING A LIGHT SNOW TO
THE LOWER LAKES REGION. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BACK TO UNSEASONABLE READINGS FOR LATE MARCH TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FALLING SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 1000 PM A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ELMIRA TO FT DRUM...WITH THIS
FRONT POISED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE
HAVE ONLY BEEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ITSELF...WITH THE STEADIEST SNOW SHOWERS COMING BEHIND THE FRONT.
A LARGE PART OF THIS IS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOL RAPIDLY. THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING IS POST-FRONTAL AND
SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -12C...WITH COLDER AIR ON ITS HEELS.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...WHILE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW. WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF
UPSTREAM...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE ICE ON LAKE ERIE...SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE THERE TOO. IN TERMS
OF GUIDANCE...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE RGEM SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE POST-FRONTAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
A COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE MULTI BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT STREAMERS ALSO LIKELY
COMING OFF LAKE ERIE AS WELL. THE STEADIEST SNOWS WILL COME LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. IN GENERAL...THE MULTI BANDED STRUCTURE SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE INCH OR TWO RANGE. UPSLOPING OR
LOCALIZED BANDING MAY PRODUCE SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS...BUT THESE
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. OUTSIDE OF THESE LAKE
AREAS...AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE DRY
WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SLOWLY FADING TO SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN A FEW
SPOTS...BUT LAKE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN MOST AREAS. TOMORROW WILL BE COLD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE RECORD LOW MAXES. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. EVEN IN A COLD AIRMASS THE HIGHER
LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE CAN STILL BRING SOME WARMTH TO THE SURFACE.
WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL STILL PLACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE RECORD LOW MAXES FOR MARCH 26TH ARE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO 23/1894...ROCHESTER 22/1923...WATERTOWN 27/1972.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAMP UP
QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME...TO OVER 50 KNOTS BY LATE THURSDAY...
FORCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER A
RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY UNDER
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 40S...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY LINGER IN THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
FOCUSED JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT BULK
OF THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
MAY VERY WELL TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK PRIOR
TO 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS
THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE EARLIER SEEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC RUNS BEGINNING TO DECREASE WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE STEADIEST RAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z FRIDAY.
THE RAINFALL...ABOUT A HALF INCH ON AVERAGE AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AROUND 50 FRIDAY COULD POSE SOME ICE BREAKUP
AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING ISSUES. THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS LAST PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST
12Z GFS ALONG WITH 00Z ECMWF...SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z
CANADIAN SHOWING THE SURFACE WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD
SPREAD A SHIELD OF STEADY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY. GFS THERMAL PROFILES EVEN SUGGEST
A PREDOMINATELY SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE THOUGH...AND
WILL HAVE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANY HOPE OF
PINNING DOWN THE SATURDAY FORECAST.
CONDITIONS DO LOOK TO IMPROVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MILDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE REGION DURING THIS TIME WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 40S...AND INTO THE 50S MONDAY WITH SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS PERHAPS TOPPING 60 DEGREES. NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 03Z TAF CYCLE WILL START OFF WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER WITH LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE NORTH EXPECT THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH MVFR CIGS. MEANWHILE...SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR OR LOWER IN VSBY 2SM OR
LESS AT TIMES TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER MOST OF THE DAY...WITH CONTINUED MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL LIFTING OF THE INVERSION AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT AND SCATTER IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY
AND WINDY.
SATURDAY...MVFR IN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT
AND COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL POUR OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS COLDER...AND BLUSTERY AIRMASS WILL KICK UP WAVES
ON LAKE ONTARIO SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES TO DROP BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1030 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING A LIGHT SNOW TO
THE LOWER LAKES REGION. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BACK TO UNSEASONABLE READINGS FOR LATE MARCH TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FALLING SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 1000 PM A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ELMIRA TO FT DRUM...WITH THIS
FRONT POISED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE
HAVE ONLY BEEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ITSELF...WITH THE STEADIEST SNOW SHOWERS COMING BEHIND THE FRONT.
A LARGE PART OF THIS IS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOL RAPIDLY. THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING IS POST-FRONTAL AND
SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -12C...WITH COLDER AIR ON ITS HEELS.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...WHILE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW. WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF
UPSTREAM...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE ICE ON LAKE ERIE...SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE THERE TOO. IN TERMS
OF GUIDANCE...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE RGEM SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE POST-FRONTAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
A COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE MULTI BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT STREAMERS ALSO LIKELY
COMING OFF LAKE ERIE AS WELL. THE STEADIEST SNOWS WILL COME LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. IN GENERAL...THE MULTI BANDED STRUCTURE SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE INCH OR TWO RANGE. UPSLOPING OR
LOCALIZED BANDING MAY PRODUCE SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS...BUT THESE
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. OUTSIDE OF THESE LAKE
AREAS...AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE DRY
WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SLOWLY FADING TO SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN A FEW
SPOTS...BUT LAKE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN MOST AREAS. TOMORROW WILL BE COLD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE RECORD LOW MAXES. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. EVEN IN A COLD AIRMASS THE HIGHER
LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE CAN STILL BRING SOME WARMTH TO THE SURFACE.
WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL STILL PLACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE RECORD LOW MAXES FOR MARCH 26TH ARE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO 23/1894...ROCHESTER 22/1923...WATERTOWN 27/1972.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAMP UP
QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME...TO OVER 50 KNOTS BY LATE THURSDAY...
FORCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER A
RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY UNDER
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 40S...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY LINGER IN THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
FOCUSED JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT BULK
OF THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
MAY VERY WELL TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK PRIOR
TO 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS
THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE EARLIER SEEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC RUNS BEGINNING TO DECREASE WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE STEADIEST RAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z FRIDAY.
THE RAINFALL...ABOUT A HALF INCH ON AVERAGE AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AROUND 50 FRIDAY COULD POSE SOME ICE BREAKUP
AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING ISSUES. THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS LAST PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST
12Z GFS ALONG WITH 00Z ECMWF...SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z
CANADIAN SHOWING THE SURFACE WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD
SPREAD A SHIELD OF STEADY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY. GFS THERMAL PROFILES EVEN SUGGEST
A PREDOMINATELY SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE THOUGH...AND
WILL HAVE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANY HOPE OF
PINNING DOWN THE SATURDAY FORECAST.
CONDITIONS DO LOOK TO IMPROVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MILDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE REGION DURING THIS TIME WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 40S...AND INTO THE 50S MONDAY WITH SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS PERHAPS TOPPING 60 DEGREES. NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE WILL START OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN
MOST AREAS...OUTSIDE OF SOME MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. UPSTREAM IS FAIRLY DRY...WITH SCT-BKN
CIGS OF MVFR OR HIGHER. EVENTUALLY...THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD LOWER CIGS TO MVFR IN MOST AREAS...BUT SUSPECT
THIS WILL TAKE TIME WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE CIGS LOWER. SNOW WILL LOWER VSBY TO 2SM OR
LESS AT TIMES IN A FEW SPOTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS AT
ART/JHW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN...WITH LIFTING CIGS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY
AND WINDY.
SATURDAY...MVFR IN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT
AND COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL POUR OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS COLDER...AND BLUSTERY AIRMASS WILL KICK UP WAVES
ON LAKE ONTARIO SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES TO DROP BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
825 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. VERY COLD AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. MILDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MULT-FACETED UPPER LVL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL BE NO FACTOR TO
OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS STILL LIKELY
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN CNY/NEPA. ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE AXIS OF THE TROF WANING A BIT
OVER WRN NY...THE RAP MODEL STILL SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT QPF
BLOSSOMING LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HERE IN CNY. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT TRENDS OF POPS
THAT PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. ONLY REAL CHANGES WERE TO MODIFY THE
WORDING OF THE FORECAST A BIT TO MENTION SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS WE HAVE HAD VARIOUS AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE AREA
THIS EVENING...AND A PRETTY DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME MORE BROKEN
AREAS OF SNOW LATER ON.
TEMPS MUCH COLDER AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING WINDS. IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COLD WINDS AND SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WIND
GUST CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS RIGHT
NOW...AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE WRN CATSKILL COUNTIES COULD EXCEED 40 MPH
GUSTS OVER THE ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TNGT/S NRN STREAM WV IS THE FINAL INGREDIENT IN THE BOMBING OF THE
CSTL LOW. RIDICULOUSLY COLD AIR PULLED SWRD BY THE DEEPENING LOW
WILL DROP TEMPS WELL BLO NRM ON WED WITH HI/S IN MANY PLACES NOT
SEEING THE 20F...ALMOST 30F BLO NRML FOR LATE MARCH.
RECOVERY BEGINS THU AS THE SFC HI BLDS OVHD AND STRONG WAA BEGINS
AS UPR HGTS RISE. DESPITE THE WAA...XPCT THE DAY TO REMAIN PCPN
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY STABLE SNDG. BEST UPR
SUPPORT FOR PCPN WELL WEST AND NORTH OVER THE LAKES DURING THU.
SYSTEM MVES EAST THU ALLOWING OH VLY MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA. VERY COLD GND AND COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE ROUGH TERRAIN EAST
OF I81 MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THAT PSBLTY. NAM QPF OF .75 INCH SEEMS
OVERDONE BUT EVEN JUST A TOUCH OF ICING WLD CAUSE PROBLEMS.
WEAK COLD FNT PASSES DURING FRI KICKING THE PCPN EAST AND DRYING
THE REGION OUT. VERY LTL CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FNT SO TEMPS SHD RISE
FRI AFTN...RCHG THE 50S IN MOST PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TYPIFIED BY SPRING-LIKE
WEATHER...MILDER BUT ALSO WETTER. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN RELAXES TO
ZONAL, WITH THE DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN
THE PERIOD LOOKING VERY TRANSITORY.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT, WHILE ANOTHER WAVE TRIGGERS A CYCLONE TO SLIDE UP
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. EACH OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. SOME MIXED PRECIP
IS POSSIBLE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING.
A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SATURDAY CYCLONE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE
LATE IN THE DAY.
BY MONDAY A STRONG CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, PULLING
WARM AIR NORTHWARD THROUGH NY/PA. UPPER 50S LOOK LIKE A CINCH WITH
THIS SYSTEM. IF WE GET APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE, WE`LL MAKE A RUN INTO
THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN NEW YORK WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS BETWEEN 02Z-04Z. AS THIS BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
PRIOR TO FROPA BETWEEN 02Z-06Z AS TERMINAL WILL RESIDE JUST ON THE
EDGE OF COASTAL PRECIP SHIELD. ON WEDNESDAY, COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LOW VFR CIGS.
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS
AFTER FROPA THEN INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 12-18 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS 22-28 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT THROUGH THU...MAINLY VFR.
THU NGT THROUGH FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN SHOWERS AS FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SAT/SAT NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING SATURDAY DUE TO RAIN AS A
STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...DGM/JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
756 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING A LIGHT SNOW TO
THE LOWER LAKES REGION. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BACK TO UNSEASONABLE READINGS FOR LATE MARCH TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FALLING SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 700 PM A COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...ROUGHLY
EXTENDING FROM ROCHESTER TO OLEAN. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME LIGHT SNOW
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER
THESE HAVE NOT FILLED INTO A SOLID LINE.
THE STEADIEST SNOW HAS BEEN ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE (SUCH AS
ERIE PA) WHILE THE FRONT PASSED THROUGH BUF/IAG DRY OUTSIDE OF A
FEW FLURRIES. THE PAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS CAPTURES THIS FAIRLY
WELL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ENHANCEMENT ALONG LAKE ERIE WHERE
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE IS LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT. THE FORECAST UPDATE
LEANS ON THE HRRR FOR TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE ONLY A DUSTING AT BEST IN MOST
INTERIOR SECTIONS. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A SIMILAR
ENHANCEMENT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR ON THE TUG HILL.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT A WINTER-LIKE AIRMASS WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING DOWN
TOWARDS -18C. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FAVOR THE TEENS ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS TO SINGLE DIGITS INLAND ACROSS SW NYS. NEAR THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SE OF THE LAKE...LAKE CLOUDINESS ON
THE NW FLOW MAY HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS TO AROUND THE 20F MARK.
TOMORROW WILL BE COLD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECASTED TO BE JUST
ABOVE RECORD LOW MAXES. A COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE MULTI BANDED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT
STREAMERS ALSO LIKELY COMING OFF LAKE ERIE AS WELL. DUE TO THE
MULTI-BANDED STRUCTURE TO THE SNOW BANDS...AND THE EFFECTS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATIONS...WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH LIKELY.
OUTSIDE OF THESE LAKE AREAS...AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TOMORROW
WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY FADING TO SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE COLD WITH MANY AREAS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S. AS WE HAVE SEEN TODAY...EVEN IN A COLD AIRMASS THE
HIGHER LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE CAN STILL BRING SOME WARMTH TO THE
SURFACE. WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL STILL PLACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE RECORD LOW MAXES FOR MARCH 26TH ARE AS FOLLOWS: BUFFALO
23/1894...ROCHESTER 22/1923...WATERTOWN 27/1972.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAMP UP
QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME...TO OVER 50 KNOTS BY LATE THURSDAY...
FORCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER A
RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY UNDER
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 40S...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY LINGER IN THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
FOCUSED JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT BULK
OF THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
MAY VERY WELL TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK PRIOR
TO 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS
THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE EARLIER SEEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC RUNS BEGINNING TO DECREASE WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE STEADIEST RAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z FRIDAY.
THE RAINFALL...ABOUT A HALF INCH ON AVERAGE AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AROUND 50 FRIDAY COULD POSE SOME ICE BREAKUP
AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING ISSUES. THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS LAST PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST
12Z GFS ALONG WITH 00Z ECMWF...SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z
CANADIAN SHOWING THE SURFACE WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD
SPREAD A SHIELD OF STEADY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY. GFS THERMAL PROFILES EVEN SUGGEST
A PREDOMINATELY SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE THOUGH...AND
WILL HAVE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANY HOPE OF
PINNING DOWN THE SATURDAY FORECAST.
CONDITIONS DO LOOK TO IMPROVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MILDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE REGION DURING THIS TIME WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 40S...AND INTO THE 50S MONDAY WITH SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS PERHAPS TOPPING 60 DEGREES. NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE WILL START OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE IN
MOST AREAS...OUTSIDE OF SOME MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. UPSTREAM IS FAIRLY DRY...WITH SCT-BKN
CIGS OF MVFR OR HIGHER. EVENTUALLY...THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD LOWER CIGS TO MVFR IN MOST AREAS...BUT SUSPECT
THIS WILL TAKE TIME WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE CIGS LOWER. SNOW WILL LOWER VSBY TO 2SM OR
LESS AT TIMES IN A FEW SPOTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS AT
ART/JHW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN...WITH LIFTING CIGS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY
AND WINDY.
SATURDAY...MVFR IN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT
AND COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL POUR OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS COLDER...AND BLUSTERY AIRMASS WILL KICK UP WAVES
ON LAKE ONTARIO SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES TO DROP BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
352 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND BLOWING
SNOW POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...WITH NO PREFERENCE.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING
SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 30-35KT TO MIX
EFFICIENTLY UP TO NEARLY 800MB BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH A SHORTWAVE...AND
DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND LIFT. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY...WITH MORE BLOWING SNOW
NEAR THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND FROM NORTHERN GRAND FORKS COUNTY INTO
MARSHALL COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT WILL MENTION IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AND HIGHLIGHT
BLOWING SNOW THREAT IN THE HWO/WEATHER STORY. TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN
THE NORTH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE COLD ADVECTION MOVES IN.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT...AND
MOVE EAST BY TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
PREVENTING IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL
FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL FROM LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
ON TUESDAY...IT WILL BE DRY AND CONTINUED COLD WITH HIGHS ABOUT
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
ON WEDNESDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET...AND EXPECT A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE NORTH. THIS SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AS A
LARGER STORM DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A
BAND OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTH...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE
FAR SOUTH...AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH WITH CLOUDS AND
SNOW MOVING IN.
FOR THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LARGE SCALE FLOW/LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS A
TRANSITION TAKING PLACE WITH NW FLOW FLATTENING AS HIGH LATITUDE
RETROGRESSION OCCURS. CPC D+3 TO D+8 SUPER-ENSEMBLES AND GFS360
5-WAVE SHOW THIS NICELY. AS ALWAYS THE DETAILS VARY FROM RUN-TO-
RUN AND HAVE TRIED TO MAINTAIN AS MUCH CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AS POSSIBLE.
FOR THURSDAY MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH A OPEN 500 TROUGH WAVE AND
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 700MB FRONTOGENESIS
AND 500-300 MB DIV-Q WITH AMPLE RH SUPPORT MODEL QPF OVER SOUTHEAST
QUARTER OF CWFA. SURFACE HIGH RIDGES IN FOR A DRIER DAY FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY RETROGRESSION IN THE LONG WAVE ALLOWS FOR BUILDING
HEIGHTS OVER THE PLAINS. GEM-NH AND GFS FASTER THAN ECMWF/DGEX WHICH
WILL HAVE SOME BEARING ON THE ADVERTISED WARMUP. AS HIGH DEPARTS TO
THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS A BOUNDARY FORMS ACROSS THE CWFA. CURRENT SUITE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 50S FOR THE SOUTH AND 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...OBVIOUSLY
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATIONS. -SN FORECAST IN COOLER ZONE
TO THE NORTH.
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW TURNS MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. WITH THE BOUNDARY SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH AS HEIGHTS BUILD...
LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE PLAINS. PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE
AREA. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NORTH/WEST PORTION OF THE CWFA
WILL SEE THE BEST RISK OF -RASN MIX. GUIDANCE TEMPS REMAIN IN
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN AT THIS RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014
EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO NRN ND/NW MN
LATER MON MORNING AHD OF COLD FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE TOWARD
DVL/GFK/TVF AREA 18Z-21Z PERIOD. WITH THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT FOR A FEW
HOURS. ALSO COULD BE MVFR CIGS. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES ONLY
SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS...THUS WILL GO WITH LOW VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1151 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS VALID AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE ONLY REAL
CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPS ARE BELOW
THE CURRENT EXPECTED VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FA...AND WILL
DROP MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HERE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPS AND SNOW SHOWER/BLOWING
SNOW POTENTIAL WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ON
MONDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN EASTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA. 12Z MODELS AND AVAILABLE MESOSCALE MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING
ANY PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THUS WILL
KEEP DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COLDEST IN
THE SNOW-COVERED AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...WITH WARMER
READINGS FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
ACROSS THE SNOW-COVERED AREAS...RATHER CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE
THE DIURNAL CU DISSIPATE. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION...SO THE QUESTION IS HOW COLD WILL TEMPS GET. DID LOWER
TEMPS A BIT INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO
MONITOR THIS EVENING...AS WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ON
MONDAY WITH SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING. A
STRONGER SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING TO AMPLIFY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE DAY (AND SOME LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY INDICATED ON MODEL
SOUNDINGS) IN THE COLD ADVECTION...SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. LIKE MANY OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THIS COLD
SEASON...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG WINDS CAN GET AND RELATED
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 25-30 KT WINDS
IN THE MIXED LAYER WITH THE STRONGEST SFC WINDS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION. ON THE OTHER
HAND...WITH THE SFC LOW WELL NORTH...3-HR PRESSURE RISES WILL NOT
BE VERY IMPRESSIVE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG.
MAV/MET GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY 17-20 KTS IN THE 18-21Z TIME
FRAME...SO WILL BUMP UP WINDS A BIT. DID PUT SOME PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW IN FROM THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME AREAS HAVE FRESH SNOW. SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD HELP TO LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AS WELL. IN AREAS
WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK...THE CANADIAN BLOWING SNOW MODEL SUGGESTS
35 TO 40 KT WINDS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WITH NO FALLING SNOW...WHICH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THUS...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONCERNS...BUT WIND
SPEEDS AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. HOW QUICKLY SKIES
CLEAR WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW LATE MARCH AVERAGES...IN THE
TEENS AND 20S...WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SFC HIGH. WARM
ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING LOWS A LITTLE
MILDER...ESPECIALLY WEST.
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN FLATTENS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH MODERATING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...TEMPS SHOULD AT LEAST MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE GEM/NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT ON WEDNESDAY UP TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTERACTING WITH THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRONOUNCED 700-300 MB OMEGA.
OVERALL GEM/ECMWF/GFS IDEAS FOR THE WED NIGHT-SUN TIME PERIOD ARE
SIMILAR BUT THEY DIFFER IN TIMING AND TEMPS. 500 MB FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS COLD POLAR LOW AT LEAST TEMPORARILY LIFTS NORTH. ONE
SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL RACE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO WED NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT
WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY. ECMWF IS FARTHER NORTHWEST AND A BIT SLOWER BUT
EVEN THAT MODEL KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FCST
AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO TO LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST FCST AREA
THURSDAY FOR ANY SHIFT AGAIN NORTHWEST. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
SYSTEM AND ECMWF STRONGER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP IN BEHIND IT FOR
A SHORT TIME THEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST FRI AFTN ALONG
THE BORDER...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL DIG A BIT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE TAKEN A BIT SLOWER APPROACH TO
THIS SYSTEM FOR APRIL 1ST. GOOD WARMUP AHD OF SYSTEM BUT THERMAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE FAR NORTH AND WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TEMP
GRADIENT DEVELOPING FROM THE FAR NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN FCST AREA
SUNDAY. BLENDED MODEL TOOL GIVES SOME LOW POPS FOR NRN AREAS
SAT-SUN AND WILL LEAVE THEM THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014
EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO NRN ND/NW MN
LATER MON MORNING AHD OF COLD FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE TOWARD
DVL/GFK/TVF AREA 18Z-21Z PERIOD. WITH THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT FOR A FEW
HOURS. ALSO COULD BE MVFR CIGS. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES ONLY
SPOTTY MVFR CONDITIONS...THUS WILL GO WITH LOW VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
110 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
PER LATEST RADAR...AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING THROUGH THE HEART OF
OUR CWA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS TRENDING TOWARD THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND PER LATEST RAP 13 ANALYSIS LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTOGENESIS LOCATED AROUND 800 MB. MODELS INDICATING THIS FRONTAL
FORCING TO SLIP TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND
ANTICIPATE THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION TREND TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH MOST
OF THE SNOW ENDING BY 15Z. VISIBILITIES WITH THE SNOW HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN REMAINING IN THE 2 TO 3 MILE RANGE...NOT ESPECIALLY HEAVY...SO
AM THINKING THAT ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL
OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH. AFTER THAT...DO
NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...THOUGH HI RES MODELS INDICATE SOME POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT
IN OUR NORTH AND EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. WOULD BE SURPRISED THAT MUCH OF THIS WOULD ACTUALLY
ACCUMULATE...PROBABLY MORE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...THOUGH DID
INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT POPS OVER THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
IN SPITE OF DECREASING CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM WHICH MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DECREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. MINIMAL SNOWFALL EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BY TUESDAY...SO FAVORED
SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FROM THE UPPER 20S IN SOUTHWEST MN
TO MID 30S THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP
OFF QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN LEVEL OFF OR SLIGHTLY RECOVER IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY...AS 925MB TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 5-10C RANGE NORTHEAST...TO MID TEENS IN SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
THE CWA. AGAIN FAVORED WARMING A BIT MORE OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST...
WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN TO LOWER 60S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS FAIRLY CLOSE TO RAW MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH
NAM/GFS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...ECMWF NEAR THE MIDDLE
AND GEM THE WARMEST AMONG THE RAW MODEL NUMBERS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GFS ON THE FAST SIDE BUT TRENDING TOWARD
SLOWER ECMWF/GEM TIMING. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THIS SLOWER TIMING
FOR NOW...WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA WARMER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIP EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE WETTEST PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE
PRECIP HAS GREATER CHANCE OF LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE IN QUESTION...LARGELY DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES WHICH ARE NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR CUT GIVEN DISCREPANCIES IN WAVE
TIMING. GENERALLY EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF
LAKE ANDES-MITCHELL-BROOKINGS MORE LIKELY TO SEE RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
TOTAL TRANSITION TO SNOW PRIOR TO 18Z THURSDAY. THREAT FOR SNOW WILL
EXPAND TO THE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...THOUGH AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
WITH SLOWER TIMING...WILL CARRY CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND
EAST OF I-29 INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND INCREASINGLY
MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES ARE LIKELY WITH THESE MVFR CEILINGS BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO CREATE ANY PROBLEMS. AFTER 0Z TUESDAY THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD SHOULD BE VFR WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH FROM THE
NORTHWEST POSSIBLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN 30-45 PERCENT RANGE IN AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THREAT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HOWEVER
WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...08
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
611 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
PER LATEST RADAR...AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING THROUGH THE HEART OF
OUR CWA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS TRENDING TOWARD THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND PER LATEST RAP 13 ANALYSIS LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTOGENESIS LOCATED AROUND 800 MB. MODELS INDICATING THIS FRONTAL
FORCING TO SLIP TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND
ANTICIPATE THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION TREND TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH MOST
OF THE SNOW ENDING BY 15Z. VISIBILITIES WITH THE SNOW HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN REMAINING IN THE 2 TO 3 MILE RANGE...NOT ESPECIALLY HEAVY...SO
AM THINKING THAT ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL
OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH. AFTER THAT...DO
NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...THOUGH HI RES MODELS INDICATE SOME POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT
IN OUR NORTH AND EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. WOULD BE SURPRISED THAT MUCH OF THIS WOULD ACTUALLY
ACCUMULATE...PROBABLY MORE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...THOUGH DID
INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT POPS OVER THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
IN SPITE OF DECREASING CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM WHICH MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DECREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. MINIMAL SNOWFALL EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BY TUESDAY...SO FAVORED
SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FROM THE UPPER 20S IN SOUTHWEST MN
TO MID 30S THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP
OFF QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN LEVEL OFF OR SLIGHTLY RECOVER IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY...AS 925MB TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 5-10C RANGE NORTHEAST...TO MID TEENS IN SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
THE CWA. AGAIN FAVORED WARMING A BIT MORE OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST...
WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN TO LOWER 60S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS FAIRLY CLOSE TO RAW MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH
NAM/GFS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...ECMWF NEAR THE MIDDLE
AND GEM THE WARMEST AMONG THE RAW MODEL NUMBERS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GFS ON THE FAST SIDE BUT TRENDING TOWARD
SLOWER ECMWF/GEM TIMING. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THIS SLOWER TIMING
FOR NOW...WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA WARMER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIP EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE WETTEST PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE
PRECIP HAS GREATER CHANCE OF LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE IN QUESTION...LARGELY DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES WHICH ARE NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR CUT GIVEN DISCREPANCIES IN WAVE
TIMING. GENERALLY EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF
LAKE ANDES-MITCHELL-BROOKINGS MORE LIKELY TO SEE RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
TOTAL TRANSITION TO SNOW PRIOR TO 18Z THURSDAY. THREAT FOR SNOW WILL
EXPAND TO THE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...THOUGH AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
WITH SLOWER TIMING...WILL CARRY CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND
EAST OF I-29 INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND INCREASINGLY
MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH BRIEF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME HI RES MODELS INDICATE LIGHT
SNOW REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH OR HEAVY ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GUST TO 25 KTS AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL DROP A BIT THIS EVENING...THOUGH REMAIN SOMEWHAT
BREEZY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN 30-45 PERCENT RANGE IN AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THREAT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HOWEVER
WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
412 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
PER LATEST RADAR...AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING THROUGH THE HEART OF
OUR CWA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS TRENDING TOWARD THE NORTH AND
EAST...AND PER LATEST RAP 13 ANALYSIS LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTOGENESIS LOCATED AROUND 800 MB. MODELS INDICATING THIS FRONTAL
FORCING TO SLIP TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND
ANTICIPATE THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION TREND TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH MOST
OF THE SNOW ENDING BY 15Z. VISIBILITIES WITH THE SNOW HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN REMAINING IN THE 2 TO 3 MILE RANGE...NOT ESPECIALLY HEAVY...SO
AM THINKING THAT ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL
OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH. AFTER THAT...DO
NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...THOUGH HI RES MODELS INDICATE SOME POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT
IN OUR NORTH AND EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. WOULD BE SURPRISED THAT MUCH OF THIS WOULD ACTUALLY
ACCUMULATE...PROBABLY MORE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES...THOUGH DID
INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT POPS OVER THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RUNNING MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
IN SPITE OF DECREASING CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM WHICH MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DECREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. MINIMAL SNOWFALL EARLY
THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BY TUESDAY...SO FAVORED
SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FROM THE UPPER 20S IN SOUTHWEST MN
TO MID 30S THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP
OFF QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN LEVEL OFF OR SLIGHTLY RECOVER IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH
FLOW PICKS UP.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY...AS 925MB TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 5-10C RANGE NORTHEAST...TO MID TEENS IN SOUTHWEST PARTS OF
THE CWA. AGAIN FAVORED WARMING A BIT MORE OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST...
WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN TO LOWER 60S IN THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS FAIRLY CLOSE TO RAW MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH
NAM/GFS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM...ECMWF NEAR THE MIDDLE
AND GEM THE WARMEST AMONG THE RAW MODEL NUMBERS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GFS ON THE FAST SIDE BUT TRENDING TOWARD
SLOWER ECMWF/GEM TIMING. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THIS SLOWER TIMING
FOR NOW...WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA WARMER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIP EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE WETTEST PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE
PRECIP HAS GREATER CHANCE OF LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE IN QUESTION...LARGELY DEPENDENT ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES WHICH ARE NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR CUT GIVEN DISCREPANCIES IN WAVE
TIMING. GENERALLY EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF
LAKE ANDES-MITCHELL-BROOKINGS MORE LIKELY TO SEE RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
TOTAL TRANSITION TO SNOW PRIOR TO 18Z THURSDAY. THREAT FOR SNOW WILL
EXPAND TO THE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...THOUGH AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
WITH SLOWER TIMING...WILL CARRY CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND
EAST OF I-29 INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND INCREASINGLY
MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ONCE THE SNOW
BEGINS. TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE SNOWFALL IN
OUR THREE TAF SITES...BUT OVERALL A BULK OF THE SNOW WILL FALL IN
THE LATE EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS. ON MONDAY...THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY...AND A SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH GIVING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. BUT
RIGHT NOW THE SNOWFALL LOOKS SPOTTY ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THE TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN 30-45 PERCENT RANGE IN AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THREAT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HOWEVER
WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MJ
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
924 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
00Z KCRP RAOB SHOWS VERY DRY AIRMASS FROM SFC TO H6 THOUGH PWAT
ANALYSIS INDICATES DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES. A S/W TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS COAHUILA
MX WILL APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE DUE TO DRIER LOWER
LEVELS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST/. HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THIS
EVENING...BUT INCREASED POPS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS LATEST AVAILABLE HRRR AND SPC 4KM WRF
GUIDANCE FOR POPS FOR TONIGHT. OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO
REDUCE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT AND TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
FOR WED AND WED NIGHT /DUE TO EXPECTED STRENGTHENING LLJ/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 58 69 67 81 67 / 30 60 30 20 10
VICTORIA 52 65 63 79 65 / 20 70 40 40 10
LAREDO 59 73 68 92 69 / 50 30 20 10 10
ALICE 56 70 65 87 66 / 30 50 30 20 10
ROCKPORT 60 69 67 70 68 / 20 60 30 20 10
COTULLA 56 69 64 87 64 / 40 40 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 58 70 66 84 67 / 30 50 30 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 61 70 67 76 67 / 30 60 30 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HART/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1225 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.AVIATION...
ALREADY VFR CLL TO UTS AREA WITH SKIES BECOMING BKN/SCT AT 3000-5000
FEET. FURTHER SOUTH...LOWER BKN/OVC DECKS ARE HOLDING ON WITH BASES
AT 2000-3000 FEET. GRADUAL LIFTING/CLEARING TREND ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SPOTS CLOSEST
TO THE COAST EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT. NORTHEAST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN...ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING (MAYBE A LITTLE MORE NNE THAN NE) IN A 9 TO 13 KNOT RANGE. AS
FOR -RA/-SHRA...EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY TO BE OFF THE COAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN LBX AND/OR GLS TAF
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAVE STARTED TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850MB CONVERGENCE
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECASTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP THE RAIN
TO START BACK UP OVER THE WATERS. MOST OF THE AFTERNOON PRECIP
SHOULD STAY OVER THE GULF THOUGH. THE HRRR DEVELOPS THE PRECIP
OVER HARRIS COUNTY BUT IT APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. ONLY MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. NO UPDATE
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SRN 1/3 OF THE REGION STILL ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ACTIVE WRLY FLOW AND MAY SEE SOME SCT LIGHT SHRA TODAY. BETTER
CHANCES SOUTH OF I-10 AND FURTHER OFFSHORE. REINFORCING HIGH PRES
MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH A NICE MOSTLY SUNNY
SPRING DAY ON TUE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.
TUE NIGHT-THURS EVENING LOOKS TO BE A PARTICULARLY ACTIVE WX
PERIOD. AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF TO EAST...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER
BACK TO THE E THEN SE AND INCREASE IN SPEED. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
CHALLENGING CLEANUP EFFORTS THAT ARE ONGOING IN GALVESTON BAY &
GULF AS MARINE WX CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE. LONG FETCH OF GULF
MOISTURE SETS UP TO RETURN BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE 2ND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
TROF NOW SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY OFF THE CA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS TX
WED AFTN/NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO TAPPING INTO TO THE INITIAL RETURN
OF INCOMING GULF MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ALONG SOME OF
ITS OWN. EXPECT A ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP OFF THE THE WEST
AND MOVE ACROSS SE TX THRU THE DAY & EVNG. PARAMETERS AREN`T
EXACTLY LINING UP PERFECTLY FOR GREAT CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH WARM NOSE NOTED AROUND 6-9K FT, NEUTRAL JET STRUCTURE
AND LOW CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT HEATING DUE TO CLOUDS. BUT STILL
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THINGS THOUGH AS SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP
LAPSE RATES FURTHER ALOFT AND STRONG 35-40KT LLVL WINDS CAN`T BE
IGNORED JUST YET.
ECMWF/GFS/NAM12 ALL PINGING A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME
DECENT RAINS (BUT AT SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS) BETWEEN WED
NIGHT AND THURS AFTN. ALL 3 ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ARRIVAL OF A
DEEPER SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. NAM12 TRIGGER APPEARS TO KEY IN
UPON SPEED CONVERGENCE INTO A COASTAL TROF SITUATED JUST INLAND
WED NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF TRIGGER LOOKS TO BE AN EWD ADVANCING DRY LINE
THURS AFTN. NOT SURE WHICH ONE...IF ANY...TO GO WITH BUT WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER END CHC POPS THRU THE PERIOD. (FOR THOSE PLAYING
AT HOME...THE NAM12 & TX TECH WRF HAVE BEEN MODELS OF CHOICE
LATELY).
LEFT THE EXTENDED AS IS. IT`S BEEN GEARED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN
WHICH GOES WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
CANADIAN IS IN ITS CAMP AS WELL. 47
MARINE...
MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES BRIEFLY. HAVE KEPT SCEC/SCA FLAGS UP FOR THE COAST-
AL WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING GIVEN THE ONGOING TRENDS. THIS RESPITE
SHOULD COME TO AN END AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE RE-
GION TONIGHT. CAUTION FLAGS MAY NEEDED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT.
THESE MODERATE/STRONG WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN AS THE WIND DIRECTION BECOMES MORE S/SELY
LATE WEDS OR SO. THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN OF A FAIRLY DEEP AND STRONG
ONSHORE FETCH COULD PRODUCE SOME DECENT SWELLS/ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS REMAIN A BIT IFFY ON PRO-
SPECTS OF ANOTHER FRONT LATE FRI/EARLY SAT...BUT HAVE KEPT FCST BENT
ON ECMWF FOR NOW. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 44 69 46 63 / 10 10 0 0 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 50 72 49 64 / 20 10 0 0 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 61 57 70 59 65 / 30 10 0 0 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1015 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAVE STARTED TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850MB CONVERGENCE
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECASTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP THE RAIN
TO START BACK UP OVER THE WATERS. MOST OF THE AFTERNOON PRECIP
SHOULD STAY OVER THE GULF THOUGH. THE HRRR DEVELOPS THE PRECIP
OVER HARRIS COUNTY BUT IT APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. ONLY MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. NO UPDATE
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SRN 1/3 OF THE REGION STILL ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ACTIVE WRLY FLOW AND MAY SEE SOME SCT LIGHT SHRA TODAY. BETTER
CHANCES SOUTH OF I-10 AND FURTHER OFFSHORE. REINFORCING HIGH PRES
MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH A NICE MOSTLY SUNNY
SPRING DAY ON TUE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER.
TUE NIGHT-THURS EVENING LOOKS TO BE A PARTICULARLY ACTIVE WX
PERIOD. AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF TO EAST...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER
BACK TO THE E THEN SE AND INCREASE IN SPEED. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
CHALLENGING CLEANUP EFFORTS THAT ARE ONGOING IN GALVESTON BAY &
GULF AS MARINE WX CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE. LONG FETCH OF GULF
MOISTURE SETS UP TO RETURN BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE 2ND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
TROF NOW SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY OFF THE CA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS TX
WED AFTN/NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO TAPPING INTO TO THE INITIAL RETURN
OF INCOMING GULF MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ALONG SOME OF
ITS OWN. EXPECT A ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP OFF THE THE WEST
AND MOVE ACROSS SE TX THRU THE DAY & EVNG. PARAMETERS AREN`T
EXACTLY LINING UP PERFECTLY FOR GREAT CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH WARM NOSE NOTED AROUND 6-9K FT, NEUTRAL JET STRUCTURE
AND LOW CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT HEATING DUE TO CLOUDS. BUT STILL
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THINGS THOUGH AS SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP
LAPSE RATES FURTHER ALOFT AND STRONG 35-40KT LLVL WINDS CAN`T BE
IGNORED JUST YET.
ECMWF/GFS/NAM12 ALL PINGING A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH SOME
DECENT RAINS (BUT AT SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS) BETWEEN WED
NIGHT AND THURS AFTN. ALL 3 ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ARRIVAL OF A
DEEPER SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. NAM12 TRIGGER APPEARS TO KEY IN
UPON SPEED CONVERGENCE INTO A COASTAL TROF SITUATED JUST INLAND
WED NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF TRIGGER LOOKS TO BE AN EWD ADVANCING DRY LINE
THURS AFTN. NOT SURE WHICH ONE...IF ANY...TO GO WITH BUT WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER END CHC POPS THRU THE PERIOD. (FOR THOSE PLAYING
AT HOME...THE NAM12 & TX TECH WRF HAVE BEEN MODELS OF CHOICE
LATELY).
LEFT THE EXTENDED AS IS. IT`S BEEN GEARED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN
WHICH GOES WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
CANADIAN IS IN ITS CAMP AS WELL. 47
MARINE...
MODERATE/STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES BRIEFLY. HAVE KEPT SCEC/SCA FLAGS UP FOR THE COAST-
AL WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING GIVEN THE ONGOING TRENDS. THIS RESPITE
SHOULD COME TO AN END AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE RE-
GION TONIGHT. CAUTION FLAGS MAY NEEDED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT.
THESE MODERATE/STRONG WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN AS THE WIND DIRECTION BECOMES MORE S/SELY
LATE WEDS OR SO. THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN OF A FAIRLY DEEP AND STRONG
ONSHORE FETCH COULD PRODUCE SOME DECENT SWELLS/ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MODELS REMAIN A BIT IFFY ON PRO-
SPECTS OF ANOTHER FRONT LATE FRI/EARLY SAT...BUT HAVE KEPT FCST BENT
ON ECMWF FOR NOW. 41
AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS (WITH OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS) NOTED ACROSS FOR
MOST OF SE TX THIS MORNING...SAVE FOR SRN MOST SITES WHERE MVFR CIGS
REMAIN IN PLACE. THE BULK OF THE PCPN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BUT
STILL NOTING SOME LIGHT RETURNS EMBEDDED IN THIS SUBTROPICAL FLOW A-
LOFT APPROACHING FROM THE W/SW. ATTM NOT SURE IF ANY OF THAT IS EVEN
REACHING THE GROUND SO WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS HERE DRY WITH THE 12Z
PACKAGE. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 44 69 46 63 / 10 10 0 0 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 50 72 49 64 / 20 10 0 0 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 61 57 70 59 65 / 30 10 0 0 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1118 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
The Brady, Junction, and Sonora terminals can expect MVFR conditions
overnight as temperatures cool and and winds diminish. Guidance for
San Angelo and Abilene has CIGS moving back in, but keeps them
higher. VFR conditions will likely prevail. the San Angelo terminal
may see a few hours of MVFR CIGS and will start them at low end
VFR(BKN030). Looks like stratus breaks up quickly by late Monday
morning and going with VFR conditions across West Central TX Monday
afternoon and evening.
21
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014/
UPDATE...
The latest satellite and radar data indicate showers have moved east
of our area. The latest RUC data indicate precipitation will likely
remain east of our area for the remainder of tonight and tomorrow
morning. Therefore, I removed showers we had for our southern
counties for the remainder of tonight and for tomorrow morning.
Plus, I adjusted sky conditions for the remainder of tonight and
tomorrow morning to reflect satellite trends and model data.
Huber
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Brady, Junction, and Sonora can expect MVFR conditions overnight as
temperatures cool and and winds diminish. Guidance for San Angelo
and Abilene has CIGS moving back in, but keeps them higher. VFR
conditions will likely prevail. San Angelo looks to be on the edges,
so MVFR conditions cannot be ruled out, especially closer to sunrise.
Reimer
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Lift associated with the RRQ of a 250mb 120+ knot jet streak
interacted with elevated instability and a northward sloping cold
frontal boundary to give the area some thunderstorms earlier
today. Most of this activity has moved east of the area this
afternoon. A surge of colder air moved in this morning, and along
with the rain received around the area, kept temperatures 25 to 30
degrees below normal this afternoon.
For tonight, thinking hasn`t changed much from the previous
forecast. We will see winds become light and variable across the
region as sfc high pressure settles in across Texas. At this time
there is still expected to be low clouds across the area, keeping
ideal radiational cooling conditions from setting up. Therefore,
have kept the temperatures near the previous forecast with lows
getting into the 30s across much of the area, but not down to the
freezing mark. Will keep a small area of low end slight chance
PoPs for the southern tier of the CWA this morning into Monday
morning for any leftover activity that is stubborn to leave the
area.
Monday, a thin, but stubborn layer of low level clouds may hang
around for a few hours after sunrise, but we should see breaks
during the afternoon. The increasingly stronger Spring sun, should
help warm temperatures back into the 60s to near 70 areawide, as
winds turn to the south during the day.
20
LONG TERM...
Next rain chance is late Tuesday night into Wednesday as an upper
trough approaches and moves over from the West. Water Vapor loop
indicates the upper low developing along the coast in N. California.
The upper low is expected to dig south into Baja California before
heading east over Texas. Both the EC and GFS have been consistent in
developing the upper low for the last several days. Model rainfall
amounts have come up to: 1/10 inch in the GFS, 2/10 inch in the EC.
The NAM run is also coming into the picture, with a stronger upper
trough bringing in a large area of 1/2 inch totals. Have increased
pops slightly, but keeping chances in the 30 to 50 percent range.
Drier air Thursday and Friday with breezy west winds. Main impact
will be elevated fire weather potential and, of course, evaporation
of received rainfall Wednesday. Could see an isolated dryline
thunderstorm east/southeast of the Concho Valley Thursday, but did
not include due to limited potential. A dry cold front may move in
late Friday afternoon/evening, bringing slightly cooler but dry
conditions into the weekend.
04
FIRE WEATHER...
Expect quiet conditions through the middle of the week, as
slightly cooler temperatures will keep RH values from bottoming
out too much.
Look for elevated fire weather conditions by Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures warm significantly, resulting in RH values dropping
into the 10 to 15 percent range in some cases. At the same time,
west winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph, with the strongest winds
across areas west of a Sweetwater to Sonora line. 700mb-500mb
winds between 35 and 50 knots each day during the afternoon would
support gusts over 35 mph during the afternoon hours behind the
dryline where mixing will be greatest. The dryline should make it
as far as a Sweetwater to San Angelo to Sonora line Thursday, and
possibly push through most of the area Friday.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 37 70 38 66 48 / 5 0 5 5 10
San Angelo 37 69 44 68 51 / 5 0 5 5 20
Junction 41 65 45 70 51 / 10 5 10 5 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
440 PM PDT TUE MAR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A showery and unsettled spring time weather pattern
will persist through Thursday. The unsettled weather will bring a
chance for thunderstorms beginning this afternoon and evening and
repeating on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will remain
above normal today and cool to near normal or slightly below
through the rest of the week. Friday into the weekend a warm wet
weather system is expected to bring widespread rain and high
mountain snow to the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday: Low pressure in the Gulf of
Alaska will push through an occluded front late this afternoon
through this evening. The back edge of this front is currently
beginning to push into the Cascade Mtns at 2:00 PM this afternoon.
There has been very little in the way of shower development east
of the Cascade Mtns ahead of the front. Radar returns have been
weak and cloud ceilings have generally been above 6-9 kft agl.
With dew point temps still in the mid 20s across much of the
region, there is still some moistening up that needs to be done
before we see any appreciable precip reaching the surface. I
scaled back the chances for precip across much of the region.
Models are still showing some shallow instability across southeast
WA and into the Central Panhandle Mtns. This will be our best bet
for showers to develop later today into this evening with the
front. This instability looks to be too weak for thunderstorms and
have been removed from the forecast. The only area where we might
see some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be along
the Cascade crest as the upper level cold pool shifts over head
and produces some deeper instability; however, my confidence for
thunderstorms here is also low. The HRRR model seems to have a
good handle on this system and it does show some isolated to
scattered showers developing behind the front into this evening.
Showers are expected to mainly be limited to the mountains as we
go through the overnight hours.
The upper level cold pool will be better positioned over the
region on Wednesday. This will allow for some afternoon showers to
redevelop over much of the region. There will be a marginal chance
for thunderstorms over the Northeast Mtns, into the ID Panhandle
and in the Northeast Blue Mtns. Instability parameters are not
very exciting with surface based CAPE values of 150 J/KG off the
GFS and 50-100 J/KG or so off of the NAM. I went ahead and left a
slight chance for thunderstorms, but a lack of dynamics will make
it difficult to get much in the way of deep convection going. Temps
on Wednesday will be right around normal for late March with highs in
the 50s for most valley locations. /SVH
Wednesday night through Friday...A closed low in the Gulf of
Alaska will begin to move inland Wednesday night and open up into
a wave on Thursday as it passes through the region. This will be
followed by building high pressure over the region Thursday night
and Friday. As such we expect showery precipitation Thursday and
widespread stratiform precipitation Friday.
Wednesday night and Thursday..As mentioned above the closed low
will move through the region...weaken...and open into a wave on
Thursday. This will increase the forcing for Thursday afternoon.
The atmosphere will remain conditionally unstable. 5h
temperatures are only -26 to -28C...but lapse rates increase to
7.0C to 8.0C by the afternoon. Lastly surface based capes are on
the order of 100-200 J/kg. There will be plenty of low and mid-
level moisture to work with. All this means a good chance of
showers any where out side of the basin with a slight chance of
late day thunderstorms..mainly across the eastern third of my
forecast area. Snow levels between 3.5k-4k feet will mean mainly
rain and graupel showers at the lower elevations with snow and
graupel in the higher mountains. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph will
be common..but will likely become quite gusty with showers.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal.
Thursday night and Friday...High pressure will build into the
region...and the mid and upper level flow will turn to the
southwest. this will tap into copious sub-tropical moisture.
PWATs increase to over a half inch which is roughly 160% of
normal. The warm front will be significant enough to over come
and Cascade shadow effect...so everyone will measure. Snow levels
increase to over 4k feet across the north to above 5k feet across
the south...so precip as mainly rain and high mountain snow.
Strong warm air advection will get mitigated by cloud cover and
precipitation...so kept temperatures close to persistence. /Tobin
Friday night through Monday: Active weather will continue across
the Inland NW through the weekend. A moist warm front will push
through the region Friday night, followed by a vigorous cold front
on Saturday with cooling, winds and convection. Snow levels will
be high, from 5-6k ft Friday day, but then fall into the valleys
by Saturday night. Post frontal westerly winds will become gusty
Saturday afternoon especially across the Columbia Basin with gusts
up to 35 mph. The GFS shows the best instability along and behind
the front especially across the northern tier zones; corresponding
the the highest qpf. The cold pool aloft will settle over the
region with 500mb temperatures to -30C. Cape values look to range
from 200-400 j/kg supporting the mention of thunderstorms,
especially across northeast Washington and north Idaho. Late
Saturday night into Sunday, low level instability decreases
quickly allowing clouds and showers to diminish under the westerly
flow aloft. The cold pocket aloft will linger over north Idaho
into Sunday afternoon with popcorn type showers and a renewed
threat of thunderstorms. By Sunday night into Monday, a shortwave
upper level ridge will build over the region with some drying,
warming aloft and stabilization. Temperatures will warm slightly
with light easterly winds. This ridge is in response of a digging
trough off the west coast and leading to a slower arrival of the
next round of precipitation. /rfox.
Monday Night through Tuesday Night: Throughout this time period
conditions still look to remain active as models are bringing in
another Pacific system. Monday Night will see the transition from
the early week ridge to the mentioned incoming system. Model
consistency for the system has not been great, but this would be
expected this far out. Timing for now looks to be in the late
Monday range to reach the Cascades and then early Tuesday for the
remainder of the region. Currently the GFS brings the system
further south leading to more of the associated precip staying
south of our area, but the Euro keep it further north leading to
increased precip. With it being almost a week out, we have plenty
of time to iron out the details. Concerning temperatures we look
to remain near normal for the first part of April. Winds look to
increase as the system passes, but as to what magnitude is yet to
be determined. /Fliehman
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The occluded front has just cross east of the Cascade
Mtns late this afternoon. The best low level instability with the
front will be across southeast WA and into the Central ID
Panhandle. Showers are expected to increase at KPUW and KLWS this
evening with frontal passage. There is also some post frontal
showers developing in a more unstable air mass across western WA
and into the Cascade Mtns. There is enough instability across
these areas that we will continue to see the potential for
isolated thunderstorms through about 03Z this evening, including
at the KEAT TAF site. Showers will wane overnight with a
redevelopment of afternoon showers possible on Wednesday. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 36 52 36 48 33 47 / 30 30 40 80 40 90
Coeur d`Alene 35 52 35 45 33 47 / 30 40 50 80 60 90
Pullman 37 52 38 47 34 49 / 60 20 70 70 40 80
Lewiston 41 58 40 52 36 55 / 70 20 70 70 40 70
Colville 34 57 33 51 34 51 / 30 30 20 70 30 90
Sandpoint 35 48 32 44 34 45 / 50 50 30 80 60 90
Kellogg 35 48 32 44 33 46 / 70 50 60 80 70 80
Moses Lake 38 59 37 57 38 55 / 20 10 20 20 20 80
Wenatchee 37 59 35 56 37 53 / 30 10 30 20 20 80
Omak 34 57 33 56 33 51 / 40 10 10 30 20 70
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
THERE IS WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS WEAK FORCING
IS RUNNING INTO VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. THUS...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO HOLD OFF OVER THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE WRF-NMM AND RAP ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING IN
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
THE RAP EVEN SHOWS CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WITHIN THE WAA
AREA PER BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE 17Z HRRR KEEPS MOST WAA
REFLECTIVITY SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER.
IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. THIS IS WHERE THERE IS DECENT OMEGA AND IT LANDS WITHIN
THE DENDRITE ZONE...ALONG WITH FRONTOGENESIS. I AM LESS CERTAIN
ABOUT HOW LONG THE SNOW WILL LAST. THE MODELS ARE PAINTING A LONGER-
DURATION QPF EVENT...BUT THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR A ONE
TO TWO HOUR MODERATE SNOWFALL JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
SEVERAL HOURS OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
.TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE ALL DAY TUESDAY AS
WELL. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY. PLAN ON OVERCAST TO
BROKEN CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING DUE TO
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY IN THE LOWER
20S WITH THE CORE OF 925MB TEMPS OF AROUND -14C SITTING OVER CENTRAL
WI.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
A SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION TUE NT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LEAD TO SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION
AS FAR EAST AS WI BEGINNING ON WED. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY DUE
TO FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BUT LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO
BE TOO DRY FOR PCPN. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 30S AND THEN HOLD
STEADY IN THE 30S WED NT.
A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE REGION FOR
WED NT INTO THU NT. BEST LIFT COINCIDED WITH MOISTURE WILL BE FOR
THU AND THU NT AS LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SRN WI. CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW WED NT AND
THEN LIKELY RAIN FOR THU/THU NT WITH LINGERING POPS ON FRI FOR
RAIN/SNOW.
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL ON SAT BUT WILL MOVE EWD BY SAT NT WITH
SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AS AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM
THE PLAINS. SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO SUN
WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 552-558 DM. HIGH TEMPS LIKELY IN
THE 60S IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS WI ON MON WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPS BUT
RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND POSSIBLY NEAR FOND DU LAC AND
SHEBOYGAN...BUT OVERCOMING THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP ANY PRECIP ALOFT FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS
EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. LOOK FOR STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND
30 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE OFFSHORE FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE WITH THE
HIGHER WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATER.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
319 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA BACK INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO STEEP LAPSE RATE UP TO 750MB PER LATEST RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
24.12Z GFS/NAM AND 24.18Z BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP LAPSE
RATES UP TO 850MB...500-300MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
FORCING ABOVE 700MB IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE IMPULSE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER FORECAST
AREA TO AROUND 09Z TUESDAY. HAVE INTRODUCE THIS TREND INTO THE
FORECAST.
BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY...WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MINUS TEENS
DEGREES CELSIUS BY 18Z TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE TEENS TO
MIDDLE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
FOCUS TURNS TO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 24.12Z NAM
AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTH
PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE 24.12Z ECMWF AND GEM.
THE 24.12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS
WOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT
WITH THE 24.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE ZERO UP TO 850MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE 24.12Z MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE FRONT PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH INCONSISTENCIES OF TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SYSTEM BY ALL THE MODELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME PERIOD IS
LOW.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE 24.12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH ARE IN AGREEMENT IN
BREAKING DOWN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BUILDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS SUGGEST 925MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND PLUS 10 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z SUNDAY OVER
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY. THEN...THE 14.12Z GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. THE 24.12Z ECMWF MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INDICATES PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE 24.12Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
WEAKER WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DELAYS ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN AS ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WELL ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO 800MB PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
AS OF 17Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES ALONG A KFSD...KMPX...KDLH LINE
AND MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS ON CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TO KRST THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. HAVE ADDED GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KRST...AS
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE 20 TO 25 KTS. AT KLSE...EXPECTING MAINLY
MVFR IMPACTS BUT COULD NOT RULE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY IN
ANY PERKIER SNOW SHOWER. A LOT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET...BUT WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE
YET TO ROTATE THROUGH...COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...SO MAY NEED TO PREVAIL SNOW SHOWERS
INSTEAD OF VICINITY COVERAGE. BROKEN CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT AROUND 12Z
BEFORE FILLING BACK IN LATE MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014
COLDER AIR IS HELPING WITH SNOW MELT AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF INTO
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE RIVER LEVELS CLOSELY
FOR RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IF ENOUGH RAIN FALLS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ZT
HYDROLOGY...DTJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED NORTHWEST FLOW FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SHORTWAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THAT ARE
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ONE
OVER MONTANA...ANOTHER IN CENTRAL ALBERTA...A SHEARED OUT ONE
ALONG THE NUNAVUT/ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...AND A FINAL ONE
WAY TO THE NORTH OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. OBSERVATIONS SOME
SNOW AHEAD OF MOST OF THESE SHORTWAVES EXCEPT FOR THE LAST ONE.
PLENTIFUL ARCTIC AIR ALSO EXISTS OVER NUNAVUT INTO THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO THIS
MORNING. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR EXISTS WITH THIS
HIGH...REFLECTED BY 12Z RAOBS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 0.1-0.2 INCHES OR 30-50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS A RESULT...SKIES
HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...THOUGH DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS HAS
DEVELOPED WEST OF THE MS RIVER. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPERATURES
HAVE ONLY CLIMBED INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S...DUE TO
UNSEASONABLY COLD 925MB TEMPS OF -14 TO - 17C PER 12Z RAOB DATA.
DESPITE THAT WE ARE NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EXPECTED MONDAY
SNOW...THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY
RELATES TO THE MONTANA AND CENTRAL ALBERTA SHORTWAVES. THE 23.12Z
NAM FOLLOWS SUIT WITH MOST OF ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...ALSO SIMILAR TO
THE 23.12Z CANADIAN AND 23.19Z RAP...NEARLY PHASING THE TWO
SHORTWAVES AND BRINGING THEM THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A WARM
ADVECTION WING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THEM...AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA WOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TRACK
WITH 1-3 INCHES COMMON PER NAM COBB OUTPUT. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF
THIS IS THE 23.12Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH ARE MUCH DRIER SCENARIOS...
ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AS IT KEEPS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UNPHASED. SOME
OF THE DRIER LOOK IS ALSO A REFLECTION OF THE SHORTWAVES RUNNING
INTO THE CURRENT DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. GIVEN THE SPREAD OF SCENARIOS
AND EACH ONE EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE...FELT A COMPROMISE IS WARRANTED...
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN ABOUT 1-2
INCHES MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH EAST.
AFTER THE MONTANA/CENTRAL ALBERTA SHORTWAVES PASS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF
NUNAVUT/ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. A SURGE OF WARMER 925MB AIR OF -4 TO
-7C AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS WHAT MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF SUN SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S. LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATE SITUATION...RESULTING IN A BAND OF SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SCENARIO IS WELL AGREED UPON BY MODELS. COULD SEE A QUICK 1/2 TO 1
INCH FROM THIS SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014
AFTER ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS GET MORE IN
AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NUNAVUT/ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING. THIS
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONTINUED STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD
OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH OF
THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 08Z TUE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE A
SURGE OF COLDER 925MB AIR COMES IN WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO
-12C. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AS WELL. EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO
PLUNGES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS FALL TO -12 TO
-15C AT A MINIMUM BY 15Z TUE...WITH THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM EVEN
SUGGESTING -15 TO -18C. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND ACCOMPANIES THIS
ARCTIC AIR SHOT...SO NEEDLESS TO SAY...TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER. THE
ONLY POSITIVE IS THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN INTERMIXED
WITH DAYTIME STRATOCUMULUS. HAVING A COLD TUESDAY...RECENT LIGHT
SNOW AND AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS AT
NIGHT SPELLS POTENTIAL FOR REALLY CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER WISCONSIN. A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS SEEM
LIKELY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB WEST OF THE
RIVER LATE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP THERE.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS SET TO TAKE HOLD FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS A
SERIES OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS LONG WAVE TROUGHS COME OFF THE PACIFIC AND
MARCH THEIR WAY ACROSS THE U.S..
THE FIRST LONG WAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY
CAUSES UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED BY MODELS BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU WITH 925-850MB TEMPS CLIMBING AROUND 8C AREA
WIDE. THIS WARMER AIR COMES IN ON A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WITH
THE ECMWF AND NAM DEPICTING 925MB WINDS REACHING 40 KT OVER THE
FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS BY 00Z. GOOD MIXING ON SOUNDINGS TOO
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL NEED FOR ADVISORY DUE TO GUSTS. THERE HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTIONS TOO FROM THE GFS/SREF OF ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SNOW
NORTH OF I-90 IN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THAT LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. THE ECMWF/NAM REMAIN DRY...THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IN
SOME LOW CHANCES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS BREEZY WITH NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WHICH WITH
A WARM LAYER PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE TYPE...A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. THE WEATHER THEN GETS MUCH MORE INTERESTING
FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING FROM THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL PLENTY OF MODEL SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS REMAINING MOST PROGRESSIVE AND THE ECMWF
SLOWEST. EITHER SOLUTION BRINGS UP PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE...AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF 0.5-1 INCH OF LIQUID QPF STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. MUCH OF THE QPF LOOKS TO COME ON THE DEFORMATION SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...WHICH APPEARS TO BE SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE AND RAIN
ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION BEING STRONGER COULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. PLENTY OF
WIND TOO IN THE ECMWF SCENARIO TO ADD TO THE SNOW HAZARD. THE RAIN
TOO COULD LEAD TO RUNOFF PROBLEMS.
AFTER THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY SYSTEM PASSES...UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.. THE WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS DRY
WITH A WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE WARMING WILL REALLY
BE NOTICED ON SUNDAY AS 850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FROM THE 23.12Z
ECMWF/GFS REACH +2... SOMETHING NOT SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE WINTER OR
SPRING THUS FAR. WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND...HIGHS IN THE 50S
WITH A FEW 60S COULD OCCUR. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
IMPACTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014
CONFIDENCE LOWERING WITH THE SNOW CHANCES FOR KRST FROM A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MESO MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST ANY -SN WOULD STAY WELL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST NOW. WILL SHAPE
FORECAST THIS WAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN MOVES IN FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HEFTY LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE SOME NEAR
SFC INSTABILITY AND MODELED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMPLE SATURATION FOR
CLOUD/PCPN PRODUCTION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE MORE
CELLULAR/SHOWERY. THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
VSBYS IN -SN. WILL LIKELY COVER WITH -SHSN CONDITIONS FOR
NOW...LETTING RADAR TRENDS HELP REFINE TIMING IN LATER
FORECASTS/UPDATES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014
ISSUE 1...TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE. THE RIVER HAS BEEN CLIMBING
AT DODGE SINCE ABOUT 00Z ON THE 21ST...DESPITE A FEW COLD DAYS
NOW WHICH HAS CAUSED GAUGES UPSTREAM TO FALL. THERE IS ICE ON THE
RIVER...THUS THE THINKING IS THERE MIGHT BE AN ICE JAM DOWNSTREAM
OF DODGE. HAVE ISSUED A RIVER FLOOD WARNING AT DODGE WHEN IT
REACHED 8.9 FT...HOWEVER...NOW THE RIVER JUST STARTED TO FALL
SLIGHTLY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS POSSIBLE ICE JAM IS
AFFECTING RIVER FLOW...WILL BE KEEPING THE WARNING GOING.
ISSUE 2...THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING BETWEEN 1/2 - 1 INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...HEAVIEST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE RAIN ASPECT TO THIS PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY SNOW FREE HAS PLENTY OF FROST IN THE GROUND TO
TURN MUCH OF THE RAIN TO RUNOFF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WORTH
MONITORING.
ISSUE 3...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR SUNDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S...WE WILL REALLY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE TREMPEALEAU AND
BLACK GIVEN DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE HEADWATER AREA. ANY SNOW FROM
THURSDAY/FRIDAY COULD ALSO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO RAPID
MELTING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PULL A WARM FRONT
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO
OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY. THIS FRONT MAY STALL AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
ALONG IT SATURDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALL WINTER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES DISCONTINUED AT 2AM. WE`LL UPDATE
THE SNOWFALL REPORTS THOROUGHLY BETWEEN 430 AM AND 11 AM AS TIME
AVAILS.
STORM BASICALLY DONE FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE ANOTHER ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH ALONG THE COAST.
WE`VE ADDED A SECONDARY SNOW SHOWER BAND TO THE I95 REGION WESTWARD
IN THE 07Z-11Z TIME FRAME PER THE LATEST RAP AND NAM MODELS. THIS
WILL BE A WINDEX EVENT WITH MOIST UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUDDENLY DRYING-STABILIZING AS STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE.
SEE THE RADAR PROGRESSION FROM VCNTY KBGM TO KUNV IN CENTRAL PA.
TODAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WIND ADVISORY MIDDLESEX COUNTY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO COASTAL OCEAN AND WE MAY YET EXPAND THAT TO MUCH
OF COASTAL NJ AND DE AT 330 AM...STILL CONSIDERING. RIGHT NOW WE`LL
GO WITH ISOLATED 40 KT GUSTS AND LEAVE IT A NON ADVISORY SITN.
OTRW...ONCE THE DRY AIR ARRIVES AND STABILIZES THE CONSIDERABLE
MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL EVAPORATE TO REVEAL BRIGHT SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTN WITH GUSTY NW WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH AND STRONG CAA ALOFT.
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY THE WARMER
GFS VALUES. NAM SEEMS TO HAVE HAD A SLIGHT COLD BIAS FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
**RECORD BREAKING COLD IN OUR AREA TONIGHT**
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES TILL A FEW CIRRUS AT SUNRISE. GUSTY NW WINDS 20-25 MPH
AT 8 PM DIMINISH AND DECOUPLE. PRESUMING REMAINING SNOW COVER SE
NJ..DE AND MD...WE SHOULD SEE RECORD BREAKING MINS IN THE TEENS
THERE AND EVEN RECORDS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH OUR FCST AREA
EXCEPT NOT AT KMPO. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT
FOR THE LISTING OF THE RECORDS. THIS FCST USED THE WARMER OF THE
AVBL 00Z/26 NCEP MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF SOME RIDGING IN THE EAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN A TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AMPLIFIES EASTWARD
WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OFF THE EAST COAST. THE SHARPENING TROUGH
SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND, THEN BRIEF RIDGING
ARRIVES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY. THIS
ADVERTISED PATTERN WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE OVERALL DESPITE
SEVERAL TIMES OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE SATURDAY SYSTEM IN
PARTICULAR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE CWA. WE USED A MODEL BLEND WITH CONTINUITY THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.
FOR THURSDAY...AS RIDGING ARRIVES ALONG THE EAST COAST, THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
RATHER COLD START TO THE DAY, HOWEVER A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL YIELD TO A MODERATING
AIRMASS. AS THE WAA GETS UNDERWAY AND A WARM FRONT ORGANIZES TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE INCREASING WAA ALONG
WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AT NIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
OVERALL THOUGH WITH THE SLOWER RESPONSE IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS,
IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER, PERHAPS A LOW
CHC FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ARRIVING FAST ENOUGH INTO THE
POCONO REGION.
FOR FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN WAA AND
THEREFORE A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT TO OUR NORTH. PRIOR TO THIS
HAPPENING THROUGH, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES
AND ESPECIALLY THE POCONOS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR HANGING ON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE WINTRY MIX OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET. HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW, WAA AND ALSO THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING TO OUR NORTH, ANY FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT, THE BOUNDARY SHOULD TEND
TO SLOW AND STALL IN OUR VICINITY AT NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE GOOD
FRONTAL FORCING FOR A TIME AS IT ENTERS OUR CWA, THEREFORE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE TO NEAR AN
INCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEREFORE SOME DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AT NIGHT FOR A TIME AS THE
BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTHWARD AND A SPLIT OCCURS BETWEEN THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS EARLY SATURDAY, THEN SLIDE TOWARD OUR
AREA. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING
THE DAY, THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATER AT NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY QUITE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST
COAST, AND IT MAY ACTUALLY CLOSE OFF. THIS WOULD PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AND RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN. IT APPEARS THE
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO THE RANGE OF ABOUT
1.0-1.3 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE LIFT WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO AT
LEAST SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WHILE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE ARE THINKING THAT ANY THUNDER WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND THEREFORE IT WAS NOT INCLUDED ATTM. FOR SUNDAY, THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE EXITING TO OUR EAST WITH ANY RAIN
PROBABLY ENDING EARLY. HOWEVER, IF IT BECOMES CLOSED OFF IT MAY BE
SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT OF OUR CWA AND SOME RAIN MAY LINGER LONGER
SUNDAY. AS OF NOW, WE LEANED MORE TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE AND KEPT SOME
LOW CHC POPS. A RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN LATER IN THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
MONDAY, THEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ARRIVES
THEREAFTER. THIS ALSO LOOKS LIKE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG A
COLD FRONT FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD MONDAY, THEN THIS
MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, THEREFORE
WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR INTERIOR BUT MVFR CONDS IN LEFTOVER SNOW ALONG
THE COAST BECOMES VFR BY 10Z. A BAND OF MVFR CONDS SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CROSS KRDG/KABE AROUND 10-11Z AND MAY REACH KPHL AROUND
12Z. NW WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS 25-35 DEVELOPING NEAR 12Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH.
TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR. LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE TIL 16Z WITH SCT-
BKN AOA 4000 FT THEN VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTN. GUSTY NW WINDS
33-40 KTS FROM THE GET GO AT 12Z. CONFIDENCE HIGH.
TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT DURING THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE CLOUDS
INCREASE AT NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT.
FRIDAY...VFR TO START, THEN LOWERING TO MVFR /POSSIBLY IFR/ AS
SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
SHOULD SLOW OR STALL IN OUR VICINITY AT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE TAIL END OF IT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT AND TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY...SUB-VFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF LATE AT NIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING NORTHERLY AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SOME SHOWERS,
OTHERWISE VFR. OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO HOW FAST THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST. GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
GLW CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. NW WIND GUSTS 35-45KT TODAY
DIMINISH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WARMER AIR
STARTS TO ADVECT OVER THE COOLER WATERS WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF A
WARM FRONT LATE. THE SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE.
FRIDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD LOWER TO BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA SATURDAY, HOWEVER SHOULD THEN INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS EITHER LATER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BE DUE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING NEARLY RIGHT OVER OUR AREA, HOWEVER
THE DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL AT OUR CLIMO BIG 4:
MARCH 25TH MARCH 26TH
ATLANTIC CITY 2.0 IN 2013 0.1 IN 2001
BOTH THE ABOVE WERE RECORDS OR RECORD EQUALING AND THE RER HAS
POSTED.
PHILADELPHIA SEASONAL SNOW TOTAL NOW 68.0...STILL #2 BEHIND THE 78.7
OF THE 2009-2010 WINTER.
ALLENTOWN SEASONAL SNOW TOTAL NOW 67.8...RANKED #3 BEHIND THE 75.4
OF 1993-94 AND 71.4 INCHES OF 1995-1996
ATLANTIC CITY SEASONAL SNOW TOTAL NOW 43.6 AND RANKED AT LEAST
NUMBER 5. WE`LL UPDATE THIS BY 430 AM.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THE 27TH...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
ALL OF THESE SITES LISTED BELOW EXCEPT MOUNT POCONO WILL BE WITHIN
2 DEGREES OF RECORD: IT WILL HELP IF THERE IS STILL SNOW COVERING
THE GROUND AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
ACY 16 2001
PHL 21 1894
ILG 22 2001 1975 AND 1951
ABE 15 2001
TTN 20 1894
GED 18 1951
RDG 19 2001
MPO 6 1975 IS NOT WITHIN REACH.
AS FOR THE MONTHLY AVERAGES...IT LOOKS LIKE PHL TEMPS WILL BE
AVERAGING AT LEAST 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
WE`VE HAD PROBLEMS SINCE LAST EVENING WITH OUR WEB SITE UPDATING
PROPERLY AND IT PROBABLY WONT BE FIXED UNTIL ABOUT 7 OR 8AM. IT
MAY BE TIED TO AN EASTERN REGION ROUTER ISSUE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE/MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
301 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WAS
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT HEADS FOR NOVA SCOTIA LATE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND STALL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT, PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ALL WINTER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES DISCONTINUED AT 2AM. WE`LL UPDATE
THE SNOWFALL REPORTS THOROUGHLY BETWEEN 430 AM AND 11 AM AS TIME
AVAILS.
STORM BASICALLY DONE FOR US EXCEPT MAYBE ANOTHER ONE QUARTER TO ONE
HALF INCH ALONG THE COAST.
WE`VE ADDED A SECONDARY SNOW SHOWER BAND TO THE I95 REGION WESTWARD
IN THE 07Z-11Z TIME FRAME PER THE LATEST RAP AND NAM MODELS. THIS
WILL BE A WINDEX EVENT WITH MOIST UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUDDENLY DRYING-STABILIZING AS STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE.
SEE THE RADAR PROGRESSION FROM VCNTY KBGM TO KUNV IN CENTRAL PA.
TODAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WIND ADVISORY MIDDLESEX COUNTY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO COASTAL OCEAN AND WE MAY YET EXPAND THAT TO MUCH
OF COASTAL NJ AND DE AT 330 AM...STILL CONSIDERING. RIGHT NOW WE`LL
GO WITH ISOLATED 40 KT GUSTS AND LEAVE IT A NON ADVISORY SITN.
OTRW...ONCE THE DRY AIR ARRIVES AND STABILIZES THE CONSIDERABLE
MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL EVAPORATE TO REVEAL BRIGHT SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTN WITH GUSTY NW WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH AND STRONG CAA ALOFT.
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. TEMPS WERE PRIMARILY THE WARMER
GFS VALUES. NAM SEEMS TO HAVE HAD A SLIGHT COLD BIAS FOR TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
**RECORD BREAKING COLD IN OUR AREA TONIGHT**
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES TILL A FEW CIRRUS AT SUNRISE. GUSTY NW WINDS 20-25 MPH
AT 8 PM DIMINISH AND DECOUPLE. PRESUMING REMAINING SNOW COVER SE
NJ..DE AND MD...WE SHOULD SEE RECORD BREAKING MINS IN THE TEENS
THERE AND EVEN RECORDS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH OUR FCST AREA
EXCEPT NOT AT KMPO. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS PRODUCT
FOR THE LISTING OF THE RECORDS. THIS FCST USED THE WARMER OF THE
AVBL 00Z/26 NCEP MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...A COLD START TO THE DAY AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION, WE WILL START TO HAVE MORE CLOUDS MOVE
IN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES.
FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND IT IS LOOKING TO BE KIND OF A
WET DAY ACROSS OUR AREA. WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE AREA
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER, MAYBE EVEN SOME MID, 60S. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS EARLY ON SATURDAY AND MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS LOW WILL
TRAVERSE THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AS IT APPROACHES THE
REGION, IT WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. THE
LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME AND RANGE AROUND 1.0-1.3 INCHES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THERE AS WELL AS SOME POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. NOT SEEING ALL THAT MUCH INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY THUNDER
OCCURRING. WE THINK THUNDER WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND HAVE LEFT IT
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR SOME
WATCHING IN THE COMING DAYS.
SUNDAY...THINGS START TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER THAN SATURDAY BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MONDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING NEAR THE AREA, WE SHOULD HAVE A
MODERATE AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AND COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PUSHES
TO THE EAST...CROSSING THE DELMARVA TUESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM SO STAY
TUNED FOR DETAILS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR INTERIOR BUT MVFR CONDS IN LEFTOVER SNOW ALONG
THE COAST BECOMES VFR BY 10Z. A BAND OF MVFR CONDS SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CROSS KRDG/KABE AROUND 10-11Z AND MAY REACH KPHL AROUND
12Z. NW WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS 25-35 DEVELOPING NEAR 12Z.
CONFIDENCE HIGH.
TODAY AFTER 12Z...VFR. LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE TIL 16Z WITH SCT-
BKN AOA 4000 FT THEN VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTN. GUSTY NW WINDS
33-40 KTS FROM THE GET GO AT 12Z. CONFIDENCE HIGH.
TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT DURING THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE
REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SATURDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD BE IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
GLW CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. NW WIND GUSTS 35-45KT TODAY
DIMINISH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL AT OUR CLIMO BIG 4:
MARCH 25TH MARCH 26TH
ATLANTIC CITY 2.0 IN 2013 0.1 IN 2001
BOTH THE ABOVE WERE RECORDS OR RECORD EQUALING AND THE RER HAS
POSTED.
PHILADELPHIA SEASONAL SNOW TOTAL NOW 68.0...STILL #2 BEHIND THE 78.7
OF THE 2009-2010 WINTER.
ALLENTOWN SEASONAL SNOW TOTAL NOW 67.8...RANKED #3 BEHIND THE 75.4
OF 1993-94 AND 71.4 INCHES OF 1995-1996
ATLANTIC CITY SEASONAL SNOW TOTAL NOW 43.6 AND RANKED AT LEAST
NUMBER 5. WE`LL UPDATE THIS BY 430 AM.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THE 27TH...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
ALL OF THESE SITES LISTED BELOW EXCEPT MOUNT POCONO WILL BE WITHIN
2 DEGREES OF RECORD: IT WILL HELP IF THERE IS STILL SNOW COVERING
THE GROUND AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
ACY 16 2001
PHL 21 1894
ILG 22 2001 1975 AND 1951
ABE 15 2001
TTN 20 1894
GED 18 1951
RDG 19 2001
MPO 6 1975 IS NOT WITHIN REACH.
AS FOR THE MONTHLY AVERAGES...IT LOOKS LIKE PHL TEMPS WILL BE
AVERAGING AT LEAST 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
WE`VE HAD PROBLEMS SINCE LAST EVENING WITH OUR WEB SITE UPDATING
PROPERLY AND IT PROBABLY WONT BE FIXED UNTIL ABOUT 7 OR 8AM. IT
MAY BE TIED TO AN EASTERN REGION ROUTER ISSUE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/MEOLA 3A
NEAR TERM...DRAG 3A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 3A
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA 3A
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA 3A
CLIMATE...3A
EQUIPMENT...3A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
401 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
SRN HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC...ACYC WNW WINDS PREVAILED THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. IN THE COLD
AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -23C...DIURNAL CLOUD AND
FLURRIES HAD DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION HAS OCCURRED SINCE EARLY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO DIMINISH AND THE CLOUDS TO ALSO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP.
WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.10 INCH...EXPECT TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO
VALUES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT THE TYPICAL INTERIOR COLD
SPOTS. LOOK FOR LOWS BELOW ZERO OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE U.P. AND
IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR.
WEDNESDAY...WAA WILL DEVELOP AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES. DESPITE
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...THE COMBINATION OF SRLY FLOW AND
LIMITED SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 20 TO AROUND
30. DURING THE AFTERNOON 285K-290K ISENTRROPIC LIFT MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE DRY LOWER
LEVELS...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED LATE OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
CONTROL THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS LOW...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 989MB IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AT 00Z THURSDAY...WILL
SLIDE AN ELONGATED TROUGH NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT
THE SAME TIME. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES
EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
THURSDAY...BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE 850-600MB LEVELS AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE THE 275-295K SFCS WILL SLIDE
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW TO SLIDE INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN GET
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE WAA BECOMES MAXIMIZED/FOCUSED THERE. QPF IN THESE WAA EVENTS IS
ALWAYS TRICKY AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING ON THE EXACT
AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...SO HAVE FOCUSED ON WHERE THE FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF. IN ADDITION FOR THE
EAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING COLD AIR WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OFF THE PATCH OF OPEN WATER OVER NORTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN TO
LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT OF ENHANCEMENT. OVERALL...HAVE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.5-2.5 INCHES FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ALONG THE WI BORDER AND THE HIGHEST OVER THE KEWEENAW
AND LUCE COUNTIES. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
DEEP MOISTURE CUTTING OUT FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE SITUATION
UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CAN WARM ON THURSDAY MORNING.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE CWA WHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST
SOLUTION AND MOVING THE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE NAM IS WAY TO THE NW. THE 12Z
GEM/ECMWF MEANWHILE ARE MUCH SLOWER AND TRACK THE LOW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OF LOWER MICHIGAN RESPECTIVELY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXTREMELY WELL CLUSTERED 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ON THE LOW TRACK...HAVE A HARD TIME GOING MUCH AWAY FROM THAT IDEA
ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF WAS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THUS...LIKE YESTERDAY
WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER IDEA FOR TIMING AND THEN A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEM FOR THE LOW TRACK.
AS FOR HOW THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVOLVE...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
WAA PRECIPITATION CONTINING INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE EASTERN
CWA...BUT MODELS DO HINT AT THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO CUT
OUT OVER THE REST OF WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA AND WOULD EXPECT A
TRANSITION AWAY FROM SNOW AND TOWARDS A MIX OR RAIN/DRIZZLE. THAT
SIMILAR IDEA OF LIQUID PRECIP FOR THE MORNING SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER BELOW THE
FAVORED ICE CRYSTAL TEMPERATURES. SINCE THIS IDEA HAS BEEN SHOWN
OVER THE LAST DAY...TRANSITIONED THAT AREA TO MORE RAIN/DRIZZLE THAN
SNOW FOR THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AT INITIALLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO THERE
COULD BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WITH SOME
SNOW LIKELY OCCURRING EARLIER THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. FARTHER
WEST...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE A STRONG BAND OF PRECIPITATION
(MAINLY SNOW) ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS BAND
WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SHIFT EAST AND ONSHORE OVER THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
EASTWARD SHIFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AND WOULD EXPECT SOME INTENSIFICATION OF
THE BAND DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PULL NORTHEAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR CWA WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT WAVE...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME
INFLUENCE. THEN AS THE LOW PULLS OUT OF LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND
SHOULD BE MAINLY OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW UNDER THE NW WINDS ON FRIDAY OVER THE NW/NC U.P.
BUT WITH LITTLE HELP FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT (MARGINAL 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -10C)...LITTLE OPEN WATER...AND DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH POPS FRIDAY MORNING.
NOW FOR PCPN AMOUNTS/TYPE. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 0.33-0.66 (HEAVIEST EAST)...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY BANDED LOCATIONS ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH DIFFERING IDEAS FROM THE MODELS ON HOW TO
HANDLE THE LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING...HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH HOW
MUCH RAIN TO PUT IN THE FORECAST. GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WARMEST
THERMAL PROFILE AND WOULD PUT RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ECMWF/GFS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE THE FASTER GFS
QUICKLY PULLS COLD AIR INTO THE CWA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN/TROUGH AS MAINLY SNOW
AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE EXPECTED INTENSITY AS THAT
STRONGER BAND MOVES THROUGH. BEFORE THE TROUGH ARRIVES AND THE
EXPECTED LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE...WILL HOLD ONTO SOME RAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SHIFT IT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL (MENOMINEE COUNTY)...THINK THEY WOULD HAVE BEST OPPORTUNITY
TO SEE AT LEAST HALF OF THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP AS RAIN UNTIL
THE COLD AIR SURGES IN THURSDAY EVENING. THE P-TYPE MAKES THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TRICKY...BUT THE GOING FORECAST HAS 1-4 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE THE PRECIP WILL
BE ALL SNOW (KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND LUCE COUNTY). WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HWO...ALTHOUGH ADJUST THE WORDING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ALL IN ALL...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE AN ADVISORY TYPE
EVENT.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER HEADING INTO SATURDAY. A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY. ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
HANDLE HIGHS WELL THIS DAY (MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN)...WHILE THE GFS IS HEAVILY BIASED BY ITS SNOW COVER
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON GEM/ECMWF TEMPS FOR
HIGHS.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THERMAL PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER MORE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF DIGGING IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH (MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY) WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS IT IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL BLEND OF THE TWO FOR NOW. BEHIND THE WAVE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER UPPER MICHIGAN REMAINING
RELAXED THROUGH THE MORNING. ISOLATED FLURRIES CONTINUE TO LINGER
OVER THE REGION BUT WILL COME TO AN END AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. AS
THE SFC HIGH PASSES TOT HE SOUTH OF THE REGION...RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
ACROSS THE U.P. OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH 0Z. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT EXPECT CIGS TO STAY ABOVE MVFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ALL THREE TAF SITES TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING AFTER 0Z HOWEVER VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 6Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOW TO SLIDE ACROSS IA ON THURSDAY WHILE
EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK
ACROSS LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...NORTH DAKOTA...AND
MINNESOTA AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. IN BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH...A
FEW NW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY E LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING. THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE PLAINS STATES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
344 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
...MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH NEW STORM AND NEW SNOW DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...
IMPACTS: SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS BY DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN UPPER WHERE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
CONFIDENCE: DECENT ON LOCATION OF SNOW AND BETTER ACCUMULATIONS.
LESS CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF SNOW/PRECIPITATION ALONG
M-55...ESPECIALLY OVER NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY. CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH ON FREEZING DRIZZLE EITHER...BUT IMPACT OF THAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXITING EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS THAT WILL CONTINUE RISING THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHTER
WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO GET REPLACED BY INCREASING
WAA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL GET BLASTED
NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AIDED ALONG BY
STRENGTHENING SW LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 50+ KTS FEEDING INCREASING GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES ARE
SEEN FOR TONIGHT...ONE LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND
ANOTHER MORE DEFINED WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW INTO
THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING IN
ACROSS THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER...BUT OVERALL DEEP LAYER -DIVQ NOT
OUT OF THIS WORLD...AS IT WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE SFC LOW INTO THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NRN
MICHIGAN FORCING WILL BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WAA.
WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:
LINGERING PATCHY LAKE DRIVEN CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE NW LOWER
COASTLINE THIS MORNING...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL ALSO START THICKENING UP LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE LOWER 20S IN EASTERN UPPER...TO NEAR 30F IN AND AROUND THE
GTV BAY. CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWS
LIKELY BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER LATE IN THE
EVENING. THESE SNOWS WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR ACROSS THE SE CWA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO SAG BAY...BUT LIKELY LIGHT SNOWS FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF TIME.
ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC PATTERN...MAYBE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NRN LOWER.
SNOW AMOUNTS...STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD BASED ON LATEST DATA. GENERAL
1-3 INCHES...MAX IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN LOWER INTO THE
STRAITS AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER. LESS THAN AN INCH NEARER THE SAG
BAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FORTHCOMING...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW
ACCUMULATION REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN UPPER.
OVERVIEW: CHANGE TO A MORE ACTIVE...ALBEIT MILDER...PATTERN STARTING
TO KICK INTO OVERDRIVE...WITH NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMING
HIGH RES RUC GUIDANCE OF DEEPENING FAR WEST ATLANTIC STORM...ALL THE
WHILE WESTERN RIDGING HAS ESSENTIALLY SUCCUMBED TO STRONG PACIFIC
ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FORMER WILL
ESSENTIALLY ACT AS A SLING-SHOT...PROPELLING OVERHEAD TROUGHING/COLD
POOL TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING ON ITS WAY
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. UNFORTUNATELY...WHILE THE LATTER LOOKS TO
BRING IN SOME "MILDER" AIR AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CONUS...IT
ALSO LOOKS TO DRUM UP SOME SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER TYPE WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA TO END THIS WORK WEEK. OPEN FOR BUSINESS PACIFIC
MEANS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD CONTINUE FOR THE FORECASTABLE FUTURE...
AND WITH COLD AIR LURKING JUST TO OUR NORTH...SETS UP POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL MESSY MIXED PRECIP EVENTS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. WE
SHALL SEE.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PLENTY...WITH EMPHASIS NO
DOUBT CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS/AND TIMING OF EXPECTED
LATE SEASON WINTER STORM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. HEADLINE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADDRESSED.
DETAILS: UNFORTUNATELY...STILL ONE VERY CHALLENGING...AND HENCE
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HEADING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. PROBLEMS ARE REALLY TWO-FOLD...CENTERING ON EXACT THERMAL
PROPERTIES AND EVIDENCE DEEP MOISTURE MAY DEPART FOR A TIME THURSDAY
MORNING...LEAVING OPEN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SYSTEM DRIVING ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY IS CURRENT WEST COAST WAVE
EXPECTED TO RACE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...DEPARTING OFF TO OUR EAST
QUICKLY ON FRIDAY. TACKLING THE FIRST CONCERN (THERMAL FIELDS): MID
LEVEL WAVE ITSELF CONTINUES TO LOOK DISJOINTED ON ITS PASSAGE...
WHICH PROBABLY ACCOUNTS FOR CONTINUED RATHER WIDE RANGE IN EXACT
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. 12Z ECWMF
EASILY FURTHEST SOUTH...KEEPING MAIN SURFACE WAVE TIED TO SOUTHERN
PORTION OF VORT LOBE...PASSING IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY AN ALL SNOW
SCENARIO FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32...WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE FURTHER SOUTH (TRANSITION TO JUST RAIN DOWN NEAR SAGINAW
BAY). WHILE FURTHER NORTH...ALL OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE OFFERING
VARIOUS THERMAL SOLUTIONS...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE NORTHERN MEMBERS
SHOWING EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN REMAINING ALL
SNOW. AS FOR THE SECOND CONCERN (FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THURSDAY
MORNING): COULD EASILY ENVISION A LOSS OF DEEP SATURATION FOR A TIME
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN LOWER AS
INITIAL WING OF STRONG WAA/CONVERGENCE PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH...WAITING ON APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT LATER IN THE DAY TO
DRIVE REEMERGENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE. MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS
PARTIALLY CONCUR...WITH MOISTURE SHALLOWING OUT JUST ABOVE -10C.
THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY SET UP A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO BEFORE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM...WHICH MAY BE A HIGH IMPACT TRAVEL EVENT
IF/WHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHTS SNOWS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. KINDA POINTLESS
TO INCLUDE THIS TYPE OF SPECIFICS JUST YET WHEN DEALING WITH
CONTINUED GUIDANCE CHAOS...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE LOW
BACKSIDE CAA AND ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD CHANGE ANY MIXED
PRECIP BACK TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RAIN OR A MIXTURE HANGING ON LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY ON
FRIDAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES: AS MENTIONED...JUST NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED WITH DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MID LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE
REFLECTION BOTH APPEAR TO WEAKEN ON THEIR PASSAGE. SYSTEM DOES HAVE
A RATHER HEALTHY MOISTURE TAP WITH IT...WITH CONNECTION TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HELPING SPIKE PWAT VALUES TO NEAR THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH BY LATER THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A DECENT PRECIP
MAKER (NOTHING TOO HEAVY GIVING WEAKENING SUPPORT)...AND AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS EXCEED
HALF INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS BY THE TIME EVERYTHING WRAPS UP
FRIDAY. OF COURSE...SNOW AMOUNTS ALL TIED TO THERMAL FIELDS...WITH
THE GREATEST SUPPORT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MUCH TOUGHER CALL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. GIVEN ARRAY OF UNCERTAINTIES...SIMPLY CANNOT JUSTIFY
MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS THE
MAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER RANGING
FROM AN INCH OR TWO NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT...TO JUST A DUSTING
SOUTH OF M-68. WHILE NOT FORTHCOMING ON THIS SHIFT...COULD
EVENTUALLY SEE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
BRIDGE.
REST OF THE FORECAST: WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON EARLY PERIOD
SYSTEM...TOOK MORE OF A GENERIC GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
ATTENDANT QUICK SHOT OF CAA. FORTUNATELY...THIS AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE
NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...AND HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 30S. THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP NEXT WAVE
AND AXIS OF PRECIPITATION OFF TO OUR SOUTH TO START THE WEEKEND.
PLENTY OF QUESTIONS/UNCERTAINTY THERE-ON-AFTER...WITH SOME HINTS
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING BAROCLINIC AXIS WILL INTERACT WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES...THE TWO WORKING IN TANDEM TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA TO START
NEXT WORK WEEK. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH AND QUICK THIS FRONT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES (IF IT DOES AT ALL) WILL DICTATE JUST
HOW "WARM" CONDITIONS BECOME SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 40S BOTH DAYS OVER NORTHER LOWER
MICHIGAN...JUST A TOUCH COOLER NORTH OF THE STRAITS. LETS GET
THROUGH THIS FIRST SYSTEM...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THESE
LATER PERIODS IN COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
SOME RESTRICTIONS IN -SHSN TONIGHT TVC/MBL. -SN DEVELOPING LATE
WED EVENING MBL/TVC. OTHERWISE VFR.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST THRU
WEDNESDAY. LINGERING NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SHSN WILL
WANE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS START TO BACK AND THE AIRMASS GETS
DRIER. BRIEF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TVC/MBL OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR...AS THE RETURN OF CU/STRATOCU ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
IN THE 4-5K RANGE. AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW NORTH INTO LOWER MI WED NIGHT...LEADING PORTION OF THIS WILL
REACH MBL/TVC TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
A SW BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER
SE THAT EVENING. LLWS DEVELOPS AT MBL VERY LATE IN THE TAF...WITH
STRONGER SSW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1232 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
SRN HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE SE CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC...ACYC WNW WINDS PREVAILED THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN
AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. IN THE COLD
AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -23C...DIURNAL CLOUD AND
FLURRIES HAD DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION HAS OCCURRED SINCE EARLY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO DIMINISH AND THE CLOUDS TO ALSO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP.
WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.10 INCH...EXPECT TEMPS WILL DROP OFF TO
VALUES WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT THE TYPICAL INTERIOR COLD
SPOTS. LOOK FOR LOWS BELOW ZERO OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE U.P. AND
IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE INTERIOR.
WEDNESDAY...WAA WILL DEVELOP AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES. DESPITE
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...THE COMBINATION OF SRLY FLOW AND
LIMITED SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 20 TO AROUND
30. DURING THE AFTERNOON 285K-290K ISENTRROPIC LIFT MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE DRY LOWER
LEVELS...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED LATE OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
CONTROL THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS LOW...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 989MB IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AT 00Z THURSDAY...WILL
SLIDE AN ELONGATED TROUGH NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT
THE SAME TIME. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES
EAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
THURSDAY...BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE 850-600MB LEVELS AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE THE 275-295K SFCS WILL SLIDE
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW TO SLIDE INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN GET
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE WAA BECOMES MAXIMIZED/FOCUSED THERE. QPF IN THESE WAA EVENTS IS
ALWAYS TRICKY AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING ON THE EXACT
AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...SO HAVE FOCUSED ON WHERE THE FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF. IN ADDITION FOR THE
EAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING COLD AIR WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OFF THE PATCH OF OPEN WATER OVER NORTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN TO
LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT OF ENHANCEMENT. OVERALL...HAVE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.5-2.5 INCHES FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ALONG THE WI BORDER AND THE HIGHEST OVER THE KEWEENAW
AND LUCE COUNTIES. ONE ITEM OF NOTE IS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
DEEP MOISTURE CUTTING OUT FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE SITUATION
UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CAN WARM ON THURSDAY MORNING.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE CWA WHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST
SOLUTION AND MOVING THE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE NAM IS WAY TO THE NW. THE 12Z
GEM/ECMWF MEANWHILE ARE MUCH SLOWER AND TRACK THE LOW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OF LOWER MICHIGAN RESPECTIVELY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXTREMELY WELL CLUSTERED 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ON THE LOW TRACK...HAVE A HARD TIME GOING MUCH AWAY FROM THAT IDEA
ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF WAS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THUS...LIKE YESTERDAY
WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER IDEA FOR TIMING AND THEN A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEM FOR THE LOW TRACK.
AS FOR HOW THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVOLVE...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
WAA PRECIPITATION CONTINING INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE EASTERN
CWA...BUT MODELS DO HINT AT THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO CUT
OUT OVER THE REST OF WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA AND WOULD EXPECT A
TRANSITION AWAY FROM SNOW AND TOWARDS A MIX OR RAIN/DRIZZLE. THAT
SIMILAR IDEA OF LIQUID PRECIP FOR THE MORNING SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER BELOW THE
FAVORED ICE CRYSTAL TEMPERATURES. SINCE THIS IDEA HAS BEEN SHOWN
OVER THE LAST DAY...TRANSITIONED THAT AREA TO MORE RAIN/DRIZZLE THAN
SNOW FOR THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AT INITIALLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO THERE
COULD BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT WITH SOME
SNOW LIKELY OCCURRING EARLIER THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. FARTHER
WEST...WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE A STRONG BAND OF PRECIPITATION
(MAINLY SNOW) ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS BAND
WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SHIFT EAST AND ONSHORE OVER THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
EASTWARD SHIFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AND WOULD EXPECT SOME INTENSIFICATION OF
THE BAND DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PULL NORTHEAST WITH
THE SURFACE LOW AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR CWA WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT WAVE...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME
INFLUENCE. THEN AS THE LOW PULLS OUT OF LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND
SHOULD BE MAINLY OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW UNDER THE NW WINDS ON FRIDAY OVER THE NW/NC U.P.
BUT WITH LITTLE HELP FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT (MARGINAL 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -10C)...LITTLE OPEN WATER...AND DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH POPS FRIDAY MORNING.
NOW FOR PCPN AMOUNTS/TYPE. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 0.33-0.66 (HEAVIEST EAST)...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY BANDED LOCATIONS ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH DIFFERING IDEAS FROM THE MODELS ON HOW TO
HANDLE THE LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING...HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH HOW
MUCH RAIN TO PUT IN THE FORECAST. GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WARMEST
THERMAL PROFILE AND WOULD PUT RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ECMWF/GFS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE THE FASTER GFS
QUICKLY PULLS COLD AIR INTO THE CWA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN/TROUGH AS MAINLY SNOW
AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE EXPECTED INTENSITY AS THAT
STRONGER BAND MOVES THROUGH. BEFORE THE TROUGH ARRIVES AND THE
EXPECTED LOSS OF DEEP MOISTURE...WILL HOLD ONTO SOME RAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SHIFT IT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL (MENOMINEE COUNTY)...THINK THEY WOULD HAVE BEST OPPORTUNITY
TO SEE AT LEAST HALF OF THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP AS RAIN UNTIL
THE COLD AIR SURGES IN THURSDAY EVENING. THE P-TYPE MAKES THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TRICKY...BUT THE GOING FORECAST HAS 1-4 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE THE PRECIP WILL
BE ALL SNOW (KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND LUCE COUNTY). WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HWO...ALTHOUGH ADJUST THE WORDING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ALL IN ALL...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL MAINLY BE AN ADVISORY TYPE
EVENT.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER HEADING INTO SATURDAY. A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW ON SATURDAY COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER ON SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY. ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
HANDLE HIGHS WELL THIS DAY (MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN)...WHILE THE GFS IS HEAVILY BIASED BY ITS SNOW COVER
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON GEM/ECMWF TEMPS FOR
HIGHS.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THERMAL PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER MORE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF DIGGING IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH (MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY) WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS IT IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL BLEND OF THE TWO FOR NOW. BEHIND THE WAVE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER UPPER MICHIGAN REMAINING
RELAXED THROUGH THE MORNING. ISOLATED FLURRIES CONTINUE TO LINGER
OVER THE REGION BUT WILL COME TO AN END AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. AS
THE SFC HIGH PASSES TOT HE SOUTH OF THE REGION...RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
ACROSS THE U.P. OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH 0Z. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING IN
INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT EXPECT CIGS TO STAY ABOVE MVFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ALL THREE TAF SITES TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING AFTER 0Z HOWEVER VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 6Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF THE LOW...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THEN...EXPECT NRLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FM THE WEST FRI AFTERNOON INTO
SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
137 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...CAUSING
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...ACCOMPANIED
BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AT 1000 PM A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ELMIRA TO FT DRUM...WITH THIS
FRONT POISED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE
HAVE ONLY BEEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ITSELF...WITH THE STEADIEST SNOW SHOWERS COMING BEHIND THE FRONT.
A LARGE PART OF THIS IS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOL RAPIDLY. THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING IS POST-FRONTAL AND
SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -12C...WITH COLDER AIR ON ITS HEELS.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...WHILE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE NW POST-FRONTAL FLOW. WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF
UPSTREAM...EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE ICE ON LAKE ERIE...SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE THERE TOO. IN TERMS
OF GUIDANCE...THE HRRR CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...BUT THE RGEM SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE POST-FRONTAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
A COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE MULTI BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT STREAMERS ALSO LIKELY
COMING OFF LAKE ERIE AS WELL. THE STEADIEST SNOWS WILL COME LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. IN GENERAL...THE MULTI BANDED STRUCTURE SHOULD PRODUCE
ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE INCH OR TWO RANGE. UPSLOPING OR
LOCALIZED BANDING MAY PRODUCE SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS...BUT THESE
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. OUTSIDE OF THESE LAKE
AREAS...AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE DRY
WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SLOWLY FADING TO SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN A FEW
SPOTS...BUT LAKE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20 IN MOST AREAS. TOMORROW WILL BE COLD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS FORECAST TO BE JUST ABOVE RECORD LOW MAXES. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. EVEN IN A COLD AIRMASS THE HIGHER
LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE CAN STILL BRING SOME WARMTH TO THE SURFACE.
WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL STILL PLACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE RECORD LOW MAXES FOR MARCH 26TH ARE AS FOLLOWS:
BUFFALO 23/1894...ROCHESTER 22/1923...WATERTOWN 27/1972.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. LOW LEVEL JET WILL RAMP UP
QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME...TO OVER 50 KNOTS BY LATE THURSDAY...
FORCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER A
RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY UNDER
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 40S...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY LINGER IN THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
INITIAL SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
FOCUSED JUST TO OUR WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT BULK
OF THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
MAY VERY WELL TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK PRIOR
TO 00Z THURSDAY EVENING.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS
THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE EARLIER SEEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC RUNS BEGINNING TO DECREASE WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE STEADIEST RAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z FRIDAY.
THE RAINFALL...ABOUT A HALF INCH ON AVERAGE AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS AROUND 50 FRIDAY COULD POSE SOME ICE BREAKUP
AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING ISSUES. THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS LAST PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST
12Z GFS ALONG WITH 00Z ECMWF...SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z
CANADIAN SHOWING THE SURFACE WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD
SPREAD A SHIELD OF STEADY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY. GFS THERMAL PROFILES EVEN SUGGEST
A PREDOMINATELY SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE THOUGH...AND
WILL HAVE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANY HOPE OF
PINNING DOWN THE SATURDAY FORECAST.
CONDITIONS DO LOOK TO IMPROVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MILDER PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE REGION DURING THIS TIME WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 40S...AND INTO THE 50S MONDAY WITH SOME INTERIOR
SECTIONS PERHAPS TOPPING 60 DEGREES. NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...THEN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS. THESE WILL PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS TO IFR/MVFR AT
TIMES...WITH LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAILING OUTSIDE
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.
AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING LATE MARCH DIURNAL INFLUENCES WILL
RESULT IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE
DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH CIGS ALSO
GENERALLY LIFTING OVER TIME WITH DIURNAL MIXING. ALL OF THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE ALSO HELPING TO SCATTER OUT ANY
LINGERING LOWER CIGS. OVERNIGHT...INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
SETTING UP ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY
AND WINDY.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT
AND COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL POUR OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS COLDER...AND BLUSTERY AIRMASS WILL KICK UP WAVES
ON LAKE ONTARIO SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES TO DROP BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1217 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...ANTICIPATE NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS CONDITION TO OCCUR AT
VCT AND ALI MAINLY DRG THE 09-14Z WED PERIOD. EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO MVFR CEILINGS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY RESULTING IN MVFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITION
CHARACTERIZED BY MVFR CEILINGS/MVFR VSBYS NEAR SHOWERS WL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY MID MORNING WED THEN CONTINUE UNTIL
THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
00Z KCRP RAOB SHOWS VERY DRY AIRMASS FROM SFC TO H6 THOUGH PWAT
ANALYSIS INDICATES DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES. A S/W TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS COAHUILA
MX WILL APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE DUE TO DRIER LOWER
LEVELS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST/. HAVE REDUCED POPS FOR THIS
EVENING...BUT INCREASED POPS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS LATEST AVAILABLE HRRR AND SPC 4KM WRF
GUIDANCE FOR POPS FOR TONIGHT. OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST WERE TO
REDUCE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT AND TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
FOR WED AND WED NIGHT /DUE TO EXPECTED STRENGTHENING LLJ/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 67 81 67 82 / 60 30 20 10 10
VICTORIA 65 63 79 65 83 / 70 40 40 10 10
LAREDO 73 68 92 69 93 / 30 20 10 10 10
ALICE 70 65 87 66 86 / 50 30 20 10 10
ROCKPORT 69 67 70 68 78 / 60 30 20 10 10
COTULLA 69 64 87 64 88 / 40 20 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 70 66 84 67 84 / 50 30 20 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 70 67 76 67 77 / 60 30 20 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT
ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
903 PM PDT TUE MAR 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL SWING AROUND THE LOW AND
ONSHORE INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON LATE TONIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE
CASCADE PASSES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL THEN MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL BRING THE BEST PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND
OROGRAPHICS TO THE AREA...AS WELL AS MORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA. LOOK FOR THE BEST CASCADE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD. ANY BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AFTER THE LOW MOVES
EAST...AS THE WARM FRONT WITH THE NEXT VERY MOIST AND STRONG SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD IN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... LIKELY BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHTNING AND WINDS HAVE EASED
THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
CASCADE PASS ELEVATIONS.
THERE IS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY OFF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING...SOME OF
WHICH WILL SPREAD IN NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LATER
TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE LESS WIND WEDNESDAY... BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE QUITE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. LOOK FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
CASCADES AS WELL.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE MAIN LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
MASS OUT NEAR 48N/137W THIS EVENING WILL SWING ONSHORE AND RIGHT
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...MOVING EAST OF THE CASCADES LATER ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE PERIOD OF MOST CONCENTRATED ONSHORE FLOW AND OROGRAPHICS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 850 MB WINDS 30 TO 40 KTS. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE...WE WILL LIKELY NEED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION...THIS LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIRLY TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. I SUSPECT SOME COASTAL WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO 50
MPH AGAIN...AND THE INLAND VALLEYS TO PERHAPS 35 MPH OR SO.
THE LOW MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY. ANY BREAK IN THE
WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WARM FRONT FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM COMES IN THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BE MORE OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER/PINEAPPLE EXPRESS TYPE SYSTEM...AND
WILL GIVE SOME PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL RAINS TO OUR AREA FRIDAY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE SHIFTING THE MAIN BAND SOUTH
OF OUR AREA BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND IF THIS HAPPENS... SHOULD
KEEPING ANY FLOODING THREAT ON THE MINIMAL SIDE. NEVERTHELESS THIS IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO WATCHED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME
RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO GET TO BANKFULL...BUT A LOT IS
CONTINGENT ON RAINS RECEIVED IN SHOWERS BEFOREHAND AND HOW LONG THE
STEADY RAIN STAYS OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EXTENDED
FCST PERIOD. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL KEEP COOL AND WET
WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING MODERATE
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST QPF FOCUSED OVER N CALIFORNIA AND S
OREGON. AFTER THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...DO NOT CURRENTLY SEE ANY
MAJOR SYSTEMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT THERE WILL PLENTY OF
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RUN
ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIKELY BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA TOWARDS 12Z TO 15Z
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD LEAD TO MORE PROLONGED VFR
CONDITIONS. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...
WHICH IS LEADING TO DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
CHANCE WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...OUR FOCUS WILL TURN TO A
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
COLUMBIA RIVER MOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WINDS THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT...BRINGS SOLID SMALL CRAFT
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SIMILARLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM LOOKS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. SEAS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE INTO THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS APPEAR POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.
/NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 PM
PDT WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
440 PM PDT TUE MAR 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A showery and unsettled spring time weather pattern
will persist through Thursday. The unsettled weather will bring a
chance for thunderstorms beginning this afternoon and evening and
repeating on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will remain
above normal today and cool to near normal or slightly below
through the rest of the week. Friday into the weekend a warm wet
weather system is expected to bring widespread rain and high
mountain snow to the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Wednesday: Low pressure in the Gulf of
Alaska will push through an occluded front late this afternoon
through this evening. The back edge of this front is currently
beginning to push into the Cascade Mtns at 2:00 PM this afternoon.
There has been very little in the way of shower development east
of the Cascade Mtns ahead of the front. Radar returns have been
weak and cloud ceilings have generally been above 6-9 kft agl.
With dew point temps still in the mid 20s across much of the
region, there is still some moistening up that needs to be done
before we see any appreciable precip reaching the surface. I
scaled back the chances for precip across much of the region.
Models are still showing some shallow instability across southeast
WA and into the Central Panhandle Mtns. This will be our best bet
for showers to develop later today into this evening with the
front. This instability looks to be too weak for thunderstorms and
have been removed from the forecast. The only area where we might
see some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be along
the Cascade crest as the upper level cold pool shifts over head
and produces some deeper instability; however, my confidence for
thunderstorms here is also low. The HRRR model seems to have a
good handle on this system and it does show some isolated to
scattered showers developing behind the front into this evening.
Showers are expected to mainly be limited to the mountains as we
go through the overnight hours.
The upper level cold pool will be better positioned over the
region on Wednesday. This will allow for some afternoon showers to
redevelop over much of the region. There will be a marginal chance
for thunderstorms over the Northeast Mtns, into the ID Panhandle
and in the Northeast Blue Mtns. Instability parameters are not
very exciting with surface based CAPE values of 150 J/KG off the
GFS and 50-100 J/KG or so off of the NAM. I went ahead and left a
slight chance for thunderstorms, but a lack of dynamics will make
it difficult to get much in the way of deep convection going. Temps
on Wednesday will be right around normal for late March with highs in
the 50s for most valley locations. /SVH
Wednesday night through Friday...A closed low in the Gulf of
Alaska will begin to move inland Wednesday night and open up into
a wave on Thursday as it passes through the region. This will be
followed by building high pressure over the region Thursday night
and Friday. As such we expect showery precipitation Thursday and
widespread stratiform precipitation Friday.
Wednesday night and Thursday..As mentioned above the closed low
will move through the region...weaken...and open into a wave on
Thursday. This will increase the forcing for Thursday afternoon.
The atmosphere will remain conditionally unstable. 5h
temperatures are only -26 to -28C...but lapse rates increase to
7.0C to 8.0C by the afternoon. Lastly surface based capes are on
the order of 100-200 J/kg. There will be plenty of low and mid-
level moisture to work with. All this means a good chance of
showers any where out side of the basin with a slight chance of
late day thunderstorms..mainly across the eastern third of my
forecast area. Snow levels between 3.5k-4k feet will mean mainly
rain and graupel showers at the lower elevations with snow and
graupel in the higher mountains. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph will
be common..but will likely become quite gusty with showers.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal.
Thursday night and Friday...High pressure will build into the
region...and the mid and upper level flow will turn to the
southwest. this will tap into copious sub-tropical moisture.
PWATs increase to over a half inch which is roughly 160% of
normal. The warm front will be significant enough to over come
and Cascade shadow effect...so everyone will measure. Snow levels
increase to over 4k feet across the north to above 5k feet across
the south...so precip as mainly rain and high mountain snow.
Strong warm air advection will get mitigated by cloud cover and
precipitation...so kept temperatures close to persistence. /Tobin
Friday night through Monday: Active weather will continue across
the Inland NW through the weekend. A moist warm front will push
through the region Friday night, followed by a vigorous cold front
on Saturday with cooling, winds and convection. Snow levels will
be high, from 5-6k ft Friday day, but then fall into the valleys
by Saturday night. Post frontal westerly winds will become gusty
Saturday afternoon especially across the Columbia Basin with gusts
up to 35 mph. The GFS shows the best instability along and behind
the front especially across the northern tier zones; corresponding
the the highest qpf. The cold pool aloft will settle over the
region with 500mb temperatures to -30C. Cape values look to range
from 200-400 j/kg supporting the mention of thunderstorms,
especially across northeast Washington and north Idaho. Late
Saturday night into Sunday, low level instability decreases
quickly allowing clouds and showers to diminish under the westerly
flow aloft. The cold pocket aloft will linger over north Idaho
into Sunday afternoon with popcorn type showers and a renewed
threat of thunderstorms. By Sunday night into Monday, a shortwave
upper level ridge will build over the region with some drying,
warming aloft and stabilization. Temperatures will warm slightly
with light easterly winds. This ridge is in response of a digging
trough off the west coast and leading to a slower arrival of the
next round of precipitation. /rfox.
Monday Night through Tuesday Night: Throughout this time period
conditions still look to remain active as models are bringing in
another Pacific system. Monday Night will see the transition from
the early week ridge to the mentioned incoming system. Model
consistency for the system has not been great, but this would be
expected this far out. Timing for now looks to be in the late
Monday range to reach the Cascades and then early Tuesday for the
remainder of the region. Currently the GFS brings the system
further south leading to more of the associated precip staying
south of our area, but the Euro keep it further north leading to
increased precip. With it being almost a week out, we have plenty
of time to iron out the details. Concerning temperatures we look
to remain near normal for the first part of April. Winds look to
increase as the system passes, but as to what magnitude is yet to
be determined. /Fliehman
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The occluded front has just cross east of the Cascade
Mtns late this afternoon. The best low level instability with the
front will be across southeast WA and into the Central ID
Panhandle. Showers are expected to increase at KPUW and KLWS this
evening with frontal passage. There is also some post frontal
showers developing in a more unstable air mass across western WA
and into the Cascade Mtns. There is enough instability across
these areas that we will continue to see the potential for
isolated thunderstorms through about 03Z this evening, including
at the KEAT TAF site. Showers will wane overnight with a
redevelopment of afternoon showers possible on Wednesday. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 36 52 36 48 33 47 / 30 30 40 80 40 90
Coeur d`Alene 35 52 35 45 33 47 / 30 40 50 80 60 90
Pullman 37 52 38 47 34 49 / 60 20 70 70 40 80
Lewiston 41 58 40 52 36 55 / 70 20 70 70 40 70
Colville 34 57 33 51 34 51 / 30 30 20 70 30 90
Sandpoint 35 48 32 44 34 45 / 50 50 30 80 60 90
Kellogg 35 48 32 44 33 46 / 70 50 60 80 70 80
Moses Lake 38 59 37 57 38 55 / 20 10 20 20 20 80
Wenatchee 37 59 35 56 37 53 / 30 10 30 20 20 80
Omak 34 57 33 56 33 51 / 40 10 10 30 20 70
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1001 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE ROARING BACK TODAY AFTER THE COLD START. SO FAR,
EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
SCATTERED CU ROAMING MAINLY THE NW LOWER LOWER COAST...BUT NO
REPORTS OF FLURRIES. TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED INTO PRIMARILY THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDER LOW LYING AREAS DOWN
INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE LATEST DATA SEEMINGLY STILL IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST.
ECMWF STILL THE OUTLIER WITH THE COLDER...MORE SNOWIER SUGGESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
...MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH NEW STORM AND NEW SNOW DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...
IMPACTS: SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS BY DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN UPPER WHERE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
CONFIDENCE: DECENT ON LOCATION OF SNOW AND BETTER ACCUMULATIONS.
LESS CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF SNOW/PRECIPITATION ALONG
M-55...ESPECIALLY OVER NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY. CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH ON FREEZING DRIZZLE EITHER...BUT IMPACT OF THAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXITING EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS THAT WILL CONTINUE RISING THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHTER
WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO GET REPLACED BY INCREASING
WAA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL GET BLASTED
NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AIDED ALONG BY
STRENGTHENING SW LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 50+ KTS FEEDING INCREASING GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES ARE
SEEN FOR TONIGHT...ONE LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND
ANOTHER MORE DEFINED WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW INTO
THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING IN
ACROSS THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER...BUT OVERALL DEEP LAYER -DIVQ NOT
OUT OF THIS WORLD...AS IT WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE SFC LOW INTO THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NRN
MICHIGAN FORCING WILL BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WAA.
WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:
LINGERING PATCHY LAKE DRIVEN CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE NW LOWER
COASTLINE THIS MORNING...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL ALSO START THICKENING UP LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE LOWER 20S IN EASTERN UPPER...TO NEAR 30F IN AND AROUND THE
GTV BAY. CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWS
LIKELY BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER LATE IN THE
EVENING. THESE SNOWS WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR ACROSS THE SE CWA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO SAG BAY...BUT LIKELY LIGHT SNOWS FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF TIME.
ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC PATTERN...MAYBE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NRN LOWER.
SNOW AMOUNTS...STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD BASED ON LATEST DATA. GENERAL
1-3 INCHES...MAX IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN LOWER INTO THE
STRAITS AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER. LESS THAN AN INCH NEARER THE SAG
BAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FORTHCOMING...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW
ACCUMULATION REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN UPPER.
OVERVIEW: CHANGE TO A MORE ACTIVE...ALBEIT MILDER...PATTERN STARTING
TO KICK INTO OVERDRIVE...WITH NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMING
HIGH RES RUC GUIDANCE OF DEEPENING FAR WEST ATLANTIC STORM...ALL THE
WHILE WESTERN RIDGING HAS ESSENTIALLY SUCCUMBED TO STRONG PACIFIC
ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FORMER WILL
ESSENTIALLY ACT AS A SLING-SHOT...PROPELLING OVERHEAD TROUGHING/COLD
POOL TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING ON ITS WAY
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. UNFORTUNATELY...WHILE THE LATTER LOOKS TO
BRING IN SOME "MILDER" AIR AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CONUS...IT
ALSO LOOKS TO DRUM UP SOME SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER TYPE WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA TO END THIS WORK WEEK. OPEN FOR BUSINESS PACIFIC
MEANS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD CONTINUE FOR THE FORECASTABLE FUTURE...
AND WITH COLD AIR LURKING JUST TO OUR NORTH...SETS UP POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL MESSY MIXED PRECIP EVENTS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. WE
SHALL SEE.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PLENTY...WITH EMPHASIS NO
DOUBT CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS/AND TIMING OF EXPECTED
LATE SEASON WINTER STORM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. HEADLINE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADDRESSED.
DETAILS: UNFORTUNATELY...STILL ONE VERY CHALLENGING...AND HENCE
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HEADING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. PROBLEMS ARE REALLY TWO-FOLD...CENTERING ON EXACT THERMAL
PROPERTIES AND EVIDENCE DEEP MOISTURE MAY DEPART FOR A TIME THURSDAY
MORNING...LEAVING OPEN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SYSTEM DRIVING ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY IS CURRENT WEST COAST WAVE
EXPECTED TO RACE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...DEPARTING OFF TO OUR EAST
QUICKLY ON FRIDAY. TACKLING THE FIRST CONCERN (THERMAL FIELDS): MID
LEVEL WAVE ITSELF CONTINUES TO LOOK DISJOINTED ON ITS PASSAGE...
WHICH PROBABLY ACCOUNTS FOR CONTINUED RATHER WIDE RANGE IN EXACT
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. 12Z ECWMF
EASILY FURTHEST SOUTH...KEEPING MAIN SURFACE WAVE TIED TO SOUTHERN
PORTION OF VORT LOBE...PASSING IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY AN ALL SNOW
SCENARIO FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32...WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE FURTHER SOUTH (TRANSITION TO JUST RAIN DOWN NEAR SAGINAW
BAY). WHILE FURTHER NORTH...ALL OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE OFFERING
VARIOUS THERMAL SOLUTIONS...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE NORTHERN MEMBERS
SHOWING EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN REMAINING ALL
SNOW. AS FOR THE SECOND CONCERN (FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THURSDAY
MORNING): COULD EASILY ENVISION A LOSS OF DEEP SATURATION FOR A TIME
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN LOWER AS
INITIAL WING OF STRONG WAA/CONVERGENCE PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH...WAITING ON APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT LATER IN THE DAY TO
DRIVE REEMERGENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE. MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS
PARTIALLY CONCUR...WITH MOISTURE SHALLOWING OUT JUST ABOVE -10C.
THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY SET UP A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO BEFORE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM...WHICH MAY BE A HIGH IMPACT TRAVEL EVENT
IF/WHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHTS SNOWS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. KINDA POINTLESS
TO INCLUDE THIS TYPE OF SPECIFICS JUST YET WHEN DEALING WITH
CONTINUED GUIDANCE CHAOS...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE LOW
BACKSIDE CAA AND ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD CHANGE ANY MIXED
PRECIP BACK TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RAIN OR A MIXTURE HANGING ON LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY ON
FRIDAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES: AS MENTIONED...JUST NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED WITH DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MID LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE
REFLECTION BOTH APPEAR TO WEAKEN ON THEIR PASSAGE. SYSTEM DOES HAVE
A RATHER HEALTHY MOISTURE TAP WITH IT...WITH CONNECTION TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HELPING SPIKE PWAT VALUES TO NEAR THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH BY LATER THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A DECENT PRECIP
MAKER (NOTHING TOO HEAVY GIVING WEAKENING SUPPORT)...AND AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS EXCEED
HALF INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS BY THE TIME EVERYTHING WRAPS UP
FRIDAY. OF COURSE...SNOW AMOUNTS ALL TIED TO THERMAL FIELDS...WITH
THE GREATEST SUPPORT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MUCH TOUGHER CALL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. GIVEN ARRAY OF UNCERTAINTIES...SIMPLY CANNOT JUSTIFY
MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS THE
MAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER RANGING
FROM AN INCH OR TWO NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT...TO JUST A DUSTING
SOUTH OF M-68. WHILE NOT FORTHCOMING ON THIS SHIFT...COULD
EVENTUALLY SEE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
BRIDGE.
REST OF THE FORECAST: WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON EARLY PERIOD
SYSTEM...TOOK MORE OF A GENERIC GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
ATTENDANT QUICK SHOT OF CAA. FORTUNATELY...THIS AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE
NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...AND HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 30S. THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP NEXT WAVE
AND AXIS OF PRECIPITATION OFF TO OUR SOUTH TO START THE WEEKEND.
PLENTY OF QUESTIONS/UNCERTAINTY THERE-ON-AFTER...WITH SOME HINTS
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING BAROCLINIC AXIS WILL INTERACT WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES...THE TWO WORKING IN TANDEM TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA TO START
NEXT WORK WEEK. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH AND QUICK THIS FRONT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES (IF IT DOES AT ALL) WILL DICTATE JUST
HOW "WARM" CONDITIONS BECOME SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 40S BOTH DAYS OVER NORTHER LOWER
MICHIGAN...JUST A TOUCH COOLER NORTH OF THE STRAITS. LETS GET
THROUGH THIS FIRST SYSTEM...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THESE
LATER PERIODS IN COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
MAYBE JUST A VERY BRIEF MVFR CIG/FLURRY ALONG NW LOWER COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR FOR AWHILE...AS THE RETURN OF SKIES
TODAY WILL SEE CU/STRATOCU IN THE 4-5K RANGE...WITH INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH TONIGHT DUE
TO AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
NORTH INTO NW LOWER/EASTERN UPPER LATE THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS
APN AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP INTO IFR RANGE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A SW BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER
SE THAT EVENING. LLWS DEVELOPS AT ALL TAF SITES LATE IN THE
TAF.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
650 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
SCATTERED CU ROAMING MAINLY THE NW LOWER LOWER COAST...BUT NO
REPORTS OF FLURRIES. TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED INTO PRIMARILY THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDER LOW LYING AREAS DOWN
INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE LATEST DATA SEEMINGLY STILL IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST.
ECMWF STILL THE OUTLIER WITH THE COLDER...MORE SNOWIER SUGGESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
...MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH NEW STORM AND NEW SNOW DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...
IMPACTS: SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS BY DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN UPPER WHERE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
CONFIDENCE: DECENT ON LOCATION OF SNOW AND BETTER ACCUMULATIONS.
LESS CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF SNOW/PRECIPITATION ALONG
M-55...ESPECIALLY OVER NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY. CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH ON FREEZING DRIZZLE EITHER...BUT IMPACT OF THAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXITING EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS THAT WILL CONTINUE RISING THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHTER
WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO GET REPLACED BY INCREASING
WAA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL GET BLASTED
NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AIDED ALONG BY
STRENGTHENING SW LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 50+ KTS FEEDING INCREASING GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES ARE
SEEN FOR TONIGHT...ONE LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND
ANOTHER MORE DEFINED WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW INTO
THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING IN
ACROSS THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER...BUT OVERALL DEEP LAYER -DIVQ NOT
OUT OF THIS WORLD...AS IT WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE SFC LOW INTO THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NRN
MICHIGAN FORCING WILL BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WAA.
WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:
LINGERING PATCHY LAKE DRIVEN CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE NW LOWER
COASTLINE THIS MORNING...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL ALSO START THICKENING UP LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE LOWER 20S IN EASTERN UPPER...TO NEAR 30F IN AND AROUND THE
GTV BAY. CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWS
LIKELY BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER LATE IN THE
EVENING. THESE SNOWS WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR ACROSS THE SE CWA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO SAG BAY...BUT LIKELY LIGHT SNOWS FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF TIME.
ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC PATTERN...MAYBE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NRN LOWER.
SNOW AMOUNTS...STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD BASED ON LATEST DATA. GENERAL
1-3 INCHES...MAX IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN LOWER INTO THE
STRAITS AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER. LESS THAN AN INCH NEARER THE SAG
BAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FORTHCOMING...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW
ACCUMULATION REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN UPPER.
OVERVIEW: CHANGE TO A MORE ACTIVE...ALBEIT MILDER...PATTERN STARTING
TO KICK INTO OVERDRIVE...WITH NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMING
HIGH RES RUC GUIDANCE OF DEEPENING FAR WEST ATLANTIC STORM...ALL THE
WHILE WESTERN RIDGING HAS ESSENTIALLY SUCCUMBED TO STRONG PACIFIC
ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FORMER WILL
ESSENTIALLY ACT AS A SLING-SHOT...PROPELLING OVERHEAD TROUGHING/COLD
POOL TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING ON ITS WAY
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. UNFORTUNATELY...WHILE THE LATTER LOOKS TO
BRING IN SOME "MILDER" AIR AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CONUS...IT
ALSO LOOKS TO DRUM UP SOME SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER TYPE WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA TO END THIS WORK WEEK. OPEN FOR BUSINESS PACIFIC
MEANS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD CONTINUE FOR THE FORECASTABLE FUTURE...
AND WITH COLD AIR LURKING JUST TO OUR NORTH...SETS UP POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL MESSY MIXED PRECIP EVENTS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. WE
SHALL SEE.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PLENTY...WITH EMPHASIS NO
DOUBT CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS/AND TIMING OF EXPECTED
LATE SEASON WINTER STORM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. HEADLINE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADDRESSED.
DETAILS: UNFORTUNATELY...STILL ONE VERY CHALLENGING...AND HENCE
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HEADING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. PROBLEMS ARE REALLY TWO-FOLD...CENTERING ON EXACT THERMAL
PROPERTIES AND EVIDENCE DEEP MOISTURE MAY DEPART FOR A TIME THURSDAY
MORNING...LEAVING OPEN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SYSTEM DRIVING ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY IS CURRENT WEST COAST WAVE
EXPECTED TO RACE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...DEPARTING OFF TO OUR EAST
QUICKLY ON FRIDAY. TACKLING THE FIRST CONCERN (THERMAL FIELDS): MID
LEVEL WAVE ITSELF CONTINUES TO LOOK DISJOINTED ON ITS PASSAGE...
WHICH PROBABLY ACCOUNTS FOR CONTINUED RATHER WIDE RANGE IN EXACT
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. 12Z ECWMF
EASILY FURTHEST SOUTH...KEEPING MAIN SURFACE WAVE TIED TO SOUTHERN
PORTION OF VORT LOBE...PASSING IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY AN ALL SNOW
SCENARIO FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32...WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE FURTHER SOUTH (TRANSITION TO JUST RAIN DOWN NEAR SAGINAW
BAY). WHILE FURTHER NORTH...ALL OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE OFFERING
VARIOUS THERMAL SOLUTIONS...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE NORTHERN MEMBERS
SHOWING EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN REMAINING ALL
SNOW. AS FOR THE SECOND CONCERN (FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THURSDAY
MORNING): COULD EASILY ENVISION A LOSS OF DEEP SATURATION FOR A TIME
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN LOWER AS
INITIAL WING OF STRONG WAA/CONVERGENCE PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH...WAITING ON APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT LATER IN THE DAY TO
DRIVE REEMERGENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE. MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS
PARTIALLY CONCUR...WITH MOISTURE SHALLOWING OUT JUST ABOVE -10C.
THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY SET UP A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO BEFORE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM...WHICH MAY BE A HIGH IMPACT TRAVEL EVENT
IF/WHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHTS SNOWS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. KINDA POINTLESS
TO INCLUDE THIS TYPE OF SPECIFICS JUST YET WHEN DEALING WITH
CONTINUED GUIDANCE CHAOS...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE LOW
BACKSIDE CAA AND ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD CHANGE ANY MIXED
PRECIP BACK TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RAIN OR A MIXTURE HANGING ON LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY ON
FRIDAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES: AS MENTIONED...JUST NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED WITH DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MID LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE
REFLECTION BOTH APPEAR TO WEAKEN ON THEIR PASSAGE. SYSTEM DOES HAVE
A RATHER HEALTHY MOISTURE TAP WITH IT...WITH CONNECTION TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HELPING SPIKE PWAT VALUES TO NEAR THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH BY LATER THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A DECENT PRECIP
MAKER (NOTHING TOO HEAVY GIVING WEAKENING SUPPORT)...AND AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS EXCEED
HALF INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS BY THE TIME EVERYTHING WRAPS UP
FRIDAY. OF COURSE...SNOW AMOUNTS ALL TIED TO THERMAL FIELDS...WITH
THE GREATEST SUPPORT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MUCH TOUGHER CALL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. GIVEN ARRAY OF UNCERTAINTIES...SIMPLY CANNOT JUSTIFY
MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS THE
MAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER RANGING
FROM AN INCH OR TWO NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT...TO JUST A DUSTING
SOUTH OF M-68. WHILE NOT FORTHCOMING ON THIS SHIFT...COULD
EVENTUALLY SEE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
BRIDGE.
REST OF THE FORECAST: WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON EARLY PERIOD
SYSTEM...TOOK MORE OF A GENERIC GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
ATTENDANT QUICK SHOT OF CAA. FORTUNATELY...THIS AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE
NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...AND HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 30S. THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP NEXT WAVE
AND AXIS OF PRECIPITATION OFF TO OUR SOUTH TO START THE WEEKEND.
PLENTY OF QUESTIONS/UNCERTAINTY THERE-ON-AFTER...WITH SOME HINTS
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING BAROCLINIC AXIS WILL INTERACT WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES...THE TWO WORKING IN TANDEM TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA TO START
NEXT WORK WEEK. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH AND QUICK THIS FRONT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES (IF IT DOES AT ALL) WILL DICTATE JUST
HOW "WARM" CONDITIONS BECOME SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 40S BOTH DAYS OVER NORTHER LOWER
MICHIGAN...JUST A TOUCH COOLER NORTH OF THE STRAITS. LETS GET
THROUGH THIS FIRST SYSTEM...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THESE
LATER PERIODS IN COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
MAYBE JUST A VERY BRIEF MVFR CIG/FLURRY ALONG NW LOWER COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR FOR AWHILE...AS THE RETURN OF SKIES
TODAY WILL SEE CU/STRATOCU IN THE 4-5K RANGE...WITH INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH TONIGHT DUE
TO AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
NORTH INTO NW LOWER/EASTERN UPPER LATE THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS
APN AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP INTO IFR RANGE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A SW BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER
SE THAT EVENING. LLWS DEVELOPS AT ALL TAF SITES LATE IN THE
TAF.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMD
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1102 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014
.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY
BASED ON LATEST RAP 925MB TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES. WILL SEE A
MILD DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S...WITH READINGS AROUND 70 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NO NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO SET UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MN AND NORTHWEST IA.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PRESSURE RISES AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OR EVEN SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS EVEN HITTING MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...NOT CONVINCED THAT
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...OR IF IT IS IT WILL BE A VERY SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHEAST WYOMING...TOWARD THE TRIPLE POINT OF
WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA...AND THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE LIFTING INTO IOWA AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TRACK LIFTS A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON /HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S/ THIS
AIR MASS IS ALSO QUITE DRY...WITH MODEL SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS...THIS DOES PUSH THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN CWA INTO THE HIGH FIRE DANGER CATEGORY. THE DRY AIR
WILL ALSO SEVERELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY.
MODELS DO SHOW SATURATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY COUPLE RESULTING IN A BAND OF RAIN
OR SNOWFALL...BUT MOST LIKELY EAST OF THIS CWA. SO WHILE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
WERE LEFT AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
GOING INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN
THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSURES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO...ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FAIRLY STRONG WAA BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THERE IS DECENT CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THIS...WHICH IS A FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION AS
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TO THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL STICK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND
POPS...WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY BRINGING SOME
RAIN IN SUNDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
AND COLDER AIR GETS PULLED SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EXITING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DROPS BACK OVER THE REGION AND
REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND LOOKS TO BRING
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 06Z.
LIGHT SNOW MAY REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA...INCLUDING KATY...LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE BY MID
MORNING. LOOK FOR SOME DIMINISHMENT IN THE WINDS DURING THE
EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35 KNOT RANGE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1022 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A SMATTERING OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A SECOND AREA OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTN AND AFFECT MAINLY THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CWA. HRRR HAS VERIFIED BEST THIS MORNING SO WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE LESS AGGRESSIVE HRRR FOR RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS. TEMP
FCST LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES THERE. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1030 AM. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
MOISTURE INCREASING WITH STRENGTHENED SOUTHEASTERLIES AS EARLY
DAY HIGH OVERCAST TRANSITIONS TO LOW-END VFR DECKS BY SUNSET.
A MODERATE SUSTAINED...STRONG IN GUST...SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OVER
MORE CENTRAL AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA TERMINALS FROM AROUND 18Z
THROUGH 00-01Z. OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY...HIGHER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR PASSING
SHOWERS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY SUNRISE. THE PASSAGE OF
A SOUTHWESTERLY DISTURBANCE WILL HEIGHTEN THE CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MORE STEADY OR PERSISTENT RAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. REGIONAL ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
STABLE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY MORNING SO...WITH A GRADUAL
SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS TODAY...JUST RAIN WITH NO THUNDER
IS FORECAST IN THIS 26/12Z PACKAGE. CEILING TREND WILL BE TO FALL
TO MVFR FROM AS EARLY AS 27/02-04Z WITH AREAWIDE MVFR BY 27/08-10Z
..WITH A REMOTE CHANCE OF PERIODIC IFR. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
VERY LIGHT PCPN CONTINUING TO MOVE IN FROM THE W/SW THIS MORNING
WITH RAINFALL RATES SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE AIR-
MASS SLOWLY MOISTENS. THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK OVERNIGHT BUT NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AS THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN ALONG WITH STRONG WAA/
ONSHORE FLOW PRODUCES PATCHY AREAS OF -RA/DZ/FG. RAIN CHANCES TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON THURS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN VIA
THE SUBTROPICAL JET. PROGGED JET DYNAMICS (LFQ)/LAPSE RATES LOOK
GOOD...BUT THERE ARE STILL CONCERNS REGARDING INSTABILITY WITH A
LINGERING BKN/OVC DECK LIMITING THE POSSIBLE HEATING. NO MENTION
OF SVR FOR THURS PLANNED ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW DETAILS
EVOLVE TONIGHT.
KEEPING FAIRLY LOW POPS IN FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. WEAK CAA COMBINED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GENERALLY QUIET/DRY
WEEKEND WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS. EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATING A
POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON MON ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF THE
SWLY FLOW ALOFT/POPS FOR SE TX LATE NEXT TUES/WEDS. 41
MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE NORM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS INCREASING AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. LLJ DEVELOPING FROM BRO TO SJT TO AMA AT 06Z AND WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD TO BLANKET THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS AND AREAS
FROM HUNTSVILLE TO GALVESTON AND WELL OUT INTO THE GULF. WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING STEADILY THIS MORNING AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA
FOR ALL WATERS AND HAVE EXTENDED IT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING AND FETCH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BRING IN INCREASING
SWELLS WITH THE WIND WAVE INCREASE LOCALLY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF
NEAR 20 KNOTS NEARING 25-30 KNOTS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MAY PEAK ON THURSDAY AS S/W ROTATES THROUGH NCTX AND
SUBTROPICAL JET NOSES INTO COASTAL AREAS 6 PM THURSDAY. WILL NEED
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA AND POTENTIALLY TRACK SE INTO THE GALVESTON BAY AND NEARSHORE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GRADIENT RELAXES MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AND INTO THE GULF SATURDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 4 AM THROUGH 4 PM SATURDAY. 45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 66 58 76 64 83 / 50 30 60 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 60 76 65 82 / 40 30 60 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 66 63 72 66 75 / 40 30 60 30 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
512 AM PDT WED MAR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A showery and unsettled spring time weather pattern
will persist through Thursday. A few thunderstorms will also be
possible this afternoon and again on Thursday. Temperatures will
gradually cool through the rest of the week. The cooler
temperatures will allow snow to fall over the mountains and the
higher elevations of the Inland Northwest. A wetter but warmer
system will track into the region on Friday and persist into the
weekend. This will result in widespread rain and high mountain
snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight...Todays weather will begin quiet
enough...as we are in a brief lull between yesterdays front
and a deep cold core upper level low currently poised around
47n/134w. Model guidance is in very good agreement that this
low will meander toward the coast through the day. As it
does...we expect to see slowly falling or steady 500 mb
temperatures between -27 to -30c. These values are similar to what
was experienced yesterday in the Cascades...and significantly
colder over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. So what does this mean? It suggests we will likely see
a rapid blossoming of showers during the latter half of the day in
response to daytime heating and the resultant instability. Just
about any location in the Inland NW could see some showers during
the afternoon...however whether or not it happens over any given
location is not a sure bet. Based on the positioning of the
low...about 200 miles west of Astoria by 4pm...it would place the
best chances either in the diffluent region over the Cascades or
over NE Washington and the Panhandle due to southwest orographic
ascent. While showers are likely to form this afternoon the
possibility of thunder is tougher to answer. Forcing from the
upper level low will likely remain well west of our forecast area
today so the impetus for thunder will likely have to rely on
diurnal heating combining with the greatest potential instability.
Model soundings and SREF data suggest the best chances will be
reserved for the SE corner of Washington and the southern third of
the Idaho Panhandle. There would also be a small chance over the
Cascades....generally south of Lake Chelan.
For tonight...the threat of thunder will wane markedly with the
loss of diurnal heating...however the low will continue its march
to the east. Just where it ends up by morning is uncertain...as
model guidance places the low as far south as Portland or as far
north as the southern tip of Vancouver Island. Nonetheless the
approach of the low should continue the threat of showers through
the nighttime hours as broad ascent feasts on good mid-level lapse
rates. The chances for showers will steadily increase from the
southwest corner of our forecast area during the evening and
spread NE overnight as a wraparound band of precipitation forms in
addition to the numerous showers. Some model solutions are
predicting moderate amounts of precipitation from this wraparound
band...while snow levels could drop as low as 2500-3000 ft near
the Canadian border. This suggests light to moderate snow could
impact some of the mountain passes as well as a few of the higher
valleys late tonight and continuing into Thursday morning. fx
Thursday through Sunday night...The closed low off the Washington
coast today will move through the Inland Northwest as an open
wave on Thursday. This will lead to an increase in showers
especially over the high terrain of Eastern Washington and North
Idaho where low level upslope flow will enhance shower activity.
As the wave moves into Montana by late Thursday afternoon...sun
breaks on the back side of this wave over Eastern Washington and
North Idaho combined with colder air aloft with 500mb temps near
-29C will destabilize the atmosphere with GFS and NAM stability
parameters showing the potential for a few lightning strikes with
uncapped CAPE values of 200-500 J/KG. Snow levels of 3000-4000
feet in the mountains could also bring light to moderate snow
accumulations. Showers will linger into Thursday evening then
become confined mainly to the Idaho Panhandle overnight as a brief
short wave ridge noses into Central and Eastern Washington ahead
of the next system.
Another low pressure system will set up between 130-140W off
Vancouver Island on Friday. A warm front will move through
bringing widespread rain and mountain snow with snow levels in the
afternoon rising to 4000-5000 feet...increasing further to
4500-6000 feet Friday evening with the lowest values in the
Cascades and northern mountains. The rising snow levels should
limit snow impacts over the mountain passes. The cold front
quickly follows overnight Friday into Saturday. As the upper jet
sags back south of the area, precipitation will once again turn
showery over the weekend with the greatest areal coverage of
showers during the afternoon/early evening hours when the
atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable. Stability parameters
again show a threat for isolated thunderstorms both Saturday and
Sunday especially over the higher terrain of northeast Washington
and North Idaho. Snow levels will range from 4000-5000 feet on
Saturday falling to 3000-4500 feet Sunday. This will bring a
renewed threat for mountain snow accumulations over the passes but
nothing significant is expected at this time with mainly light
accumulations expected. JW
Monday through Wednesday: A low of the WA coast will bring an
active weather pattern for this period. Model agreement is fairly
low with the location of the most precip. The GFS is keeping the
moisture South of the region while the ECMWF is bringing the
moisture through the region. The bulk of the moisture is expected
to impact the Cascades and isolated showers throughout the Inland
Northwest. The timing of the system is expected to begin the
Cascades by Monday night and continue through the rest of the
region on Tuesday and early Wednesday. The temperatures are
expected to be near the normals for this time of year. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected at all sites through most of
the period. The exception will revolve around an MVFR cloud deck
impacting the COE area...and likely just east of SFF. No idea how
extensive the deck is since its totally obscured by high clouds on
satellite. Consequently we utilized RAP model data which shows
drier air moving in from the west by 17z as well as conditional
climatology. Anyway confidence is not high. Otherwise the main
weather feature for this afternoon and early evening will be a
rapid destabilization of the atmosphere and a growing possibility
of showers. Although the instability will not be that
impressive...there will be a small chance of thunderstorms over SE
WA which could be near LWS and perhaps PUW between 21z-02z. MWH
and EAT won`t see much of a chance today...but should see a
growing chance overnight as the atmosphere destabilizes even
further with the approach of a cold upper level low. The low will
head toward the WA/ID border after 06z...which will result in
numerous showers and a band of wraparound precipitation. THERE`S a
small chance of MVFR cigs developing near this band but we did not
have enough confidence to put in prevailing wording. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 37 48 33 47 38 / 40 70 80 40 100 80
Coeur d`Alene 51 34 45 33 47 36 / 50 70 90 60 90 90
Pullman 52 38 47 34 49 39 / 40 70 70 40 90 100
Lewiston 57 41 52 36 55 44 / 40 70 70 40 70 80
Colville 56 32 51 34 51 35 / 50 60 70 30 100 80
Sandpoint 48 32 44 34 45 34 / 60 60 90 60 90 90
Kellogg 48 34 44 33 46 35 / 50 70 100 80 90 100
Moses Lake 59 39 57 38 55 40 / 20 40 20 20 80 40
Wenatchee 58 38 56 37 53 36 / 30 50 20 20 80 50
Omak 59 34 56 33 51 34 / 30 50 30 20 70 50
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1001 AM PDT Wed Mar 26 2014
.Synopsis...
Significant mountain snow and gusty winds are likely with
good potential for isolated thunderstorms today...some possibly
strong storms. Wet and cooler weather will continue through the
weekend.
&&
.Updated Discussion...
Next wave of precip is spreading into the Sierra as the next
batch of short-wave energy rotates inland. Forecast soundings
indicate showers and potential for some thunderstorms today in the
valley. Buoyancy or CAPE is only around 100 J/kg at most from the
NAM and RUC. But the HRRR was showing between 100-200 J/kg. The
CAPE layer is relatively shallow. But, that is normal for here.
The interesting thing to note is the shear values. The 0-1 km
shear is anywhere from 12 to 20 m/s while the 0-6 km shear is
from 35 to 55 m/s, with the strongest areas between Sacramento and
Red Bluff. The significance of these shear profiles are that they
are very favorable for rotating updrafts if individual cells are
able to develop. Similar to yesterday, it will be a waiting game
today to see if enough clearing develops behind the main area of
showers that will move across the area during the morning.
The back of edge of the wave/clouds are near the coast.
Orographic flow may keep clouds are coastal range, but shadowed
areas in the valley may see enough clearing later. We already see
evidence of some thinning clouds in the western valley.
We are not making any major changes to the snow amounts and the
Winter Storm Warning. The next wet system is forecast to drop
southward through the region Saturday. JClapp
&&
.Extended Discussion (Sunday through Wednesday)
Models show weak ridging over the state on Sunday but WAA and
weak lift could promote some continued light overrunning
precipitation mainly north of the Sacramento area. Daytime highs
will range from a little below normal to the north where cloud
cover will be more extensive to a little above normal to the
south. The next in a series of Pacific storm systems is forecast
fairly consistently by the extended models to move into NORCAL by
Monday afternoon bringing a good chance of precipitation to the
entire CWA. Relatively low snow levels are expected with this cold
system. Moisture feed into this system is relatively modest with
predicted TPW values of only around .8 inches. Therefore...only
expecting this storm to be a moderate precipitation producer. The
upper low is forecast to push through NORCAL on Tuesday bringing a
continued shower threat and cooler than normal daytime
temperatures. Latest model runs push upper ridging over the west
coast by Wednesday of next week. If this model trend continues
then will need to reduce precipitation chances in current grid
package.
&&
.Aviation...
Another day of showers and thunderstorms today with an unstable
airmass behind last evenings cold frontal passage. VFR with local
MVFR in the Valley today, with the best chance of MVFR for the
Northern Sac Valley. Over the mountains, IFR ceilings and
visibilities with snow down to 4500 feet. Improving conditions for
the Valley overnight, with improving conditions for the mountains
by 18z. -DVC
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning until 11 am pdt Thursday above 5000 feet in
the west slope northern Sierra Nevada...western Plumas
county/Lassen park.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
349 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2014
...Updated Short Term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2014
Main challenge in the forecast tonight will be advisory level wind
speeds and precipitation chances. Today`s wave of precipitation that
grazed southwest Kansas (affecting south-central Kansas) was moving
out late this afternoon, however quick on its heels was another
potent upper tropospheric jet streak. This was already leading to
enhancement in mid and upper level cloud across Colorado. A few
showers and and isolated lightning strike or two will form across
the dry low level airmass of southeastern/east-central Colorado. A
few of these convective elements will move east into far southwest
Kansas this evening, however the real-estate of very limited
convective instability is quite narrow, so it will be extremely
difficult for any of these surface-based showers/isolated
thunderstorm to thrive much past sunset. In fact, the latest runs of
the 3km HRRR model suggest a dissipation of any surface based
activity not long after 00Z.
Surface winds are expected to back around or shortly after 00Z to
the south-southeast ahead of the dryline, and this will allow low
level moisture to pull back west, and widespread low clouds should
form. Light fog may also develop along and east of Highway 283,
however we will keep fog out of the grids for now, as the duration
of low clouds will be limited as winds begin to veer with the low
moving east around or shortly after 06Z.
On Thursday, we will be looking at another fairly windy day behind
the cold front passage, however the gradient behind the low will not
be as intense as we saw ahead of the low today, despite some deeper
mixing to help boost the surface winds. The forecast of 20 to 25
knots sustained in the late morning to early afternoon look pretty
good, however, these winds may need to be increased a bit
approaching yet another wind advisory issuance, perhaps. The
midnight shift will have to look at this closer (especially farther
north toward the I-70 corridor). The airmass behind the front will
have substantial downslope modification, so we will actually see
warmer temperatures tomorrow than what we saw today east of highway
283 (given all the clouds and light rain in this area today). Late
in the afternoon, there is the potential for some virga showers
developing across far west-central KS near the Colorado border as
convective temperature is reached given very chilly mid-level
temperatures (500mb temps of down to -25C and 700mb temps of around
-5C).
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2014
The extended period will be characterized by a progressive upper
level westerly flow over central North America. Low amplitude
shortwave troughs will periodically move east over the United States
through the period. The first shortwave during this period will move
out over the central High Plains late Thursday night into Friday
morning. The models have been consistent in keeping the bulk of any
precipitation with this wave confined to northern Kansas where the
better mid level moisture will be. Will keep the chance pops along
I-70 intact early Friday morning but have trimmed back pops a little
bit on the southern edge in southwest Kansas.
Later in the period, another shortwave will move out over the
central High Plains around Sunday night with a Pacific cold front
pushing across western Kansas during the afternoon or evening hours.
A few showers and thunderstorms could develop toward central Kansas
depending on whether enough return flow moisture can make it back
into Kansas. A potentially better chance for thunderstorms could
occur across western Kansas as the GFS and ECMWF are showing better
low level moisture return into the central High Plains ahead of this
system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014
Strong south winds of 28 to 32 knots sustained will prevail through
the early evening hours. GCK, DDC, HYS should remain in VFR flight
category through the day as the stratus and associated MVFR ceilings
will likely remain just east of a HYS-DDC line. Some of this low
level moisture will pull back west perhaps affecting DDC and HYS
this evening, so the flight category forecast for DDC and HYS will
be difficult this evening. There is enough confidence to forecast at
least six or so hours of IFR ceiling at HYS, but DDC and especially
GCK are likely to stay out of the low ceiling.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 43 62 34 59 / 10 10 20 20
GCK 41 62 35 61 / 20 10 20 20
EHA 43 67 37 61 / 20 10 10 0
LBL 43 67 36 62 / 20 10 10 10
HYS 42 58 33 57 / 20 30 20 20
P28 46 67 35 61 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until Midnight CDT tonight FOR KSZ030-031-044>046-
063>066-076>081-086>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
155 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
CU FIELDS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA, BUT IT IS
STILL A PARTLY SUNNY DAY, BEFORE THE STORM. SO NO CHANGES IN THE
NEAR-TERM (NOW-00Z), EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE ROARING BACK TODAY AFTER THE COLD START. SO FAR,
EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
SCATTERED CU ROAMING MAINLY THE NW LOWER LOWER COAST...BUT NO
REPORTS OF FLURRIES. TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED INTO PRIMARILY THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDER LOW LYING AREAS DOWN
INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE LATEST DATA SEEMINGLY STILL IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST.
ECMWF STILL THE OUTLIER WITH THE COLDER...MORE SNOWIER SUGGESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
...MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH NEW STORM AND NEW SNOW DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...
IMPACTS: SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS BY DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN UPPER WHERE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
CONFIDENCE: DECENT ON LOCATION OF SNOW AND BETTER ACCUMULATIONS.
LESS CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF SNOW/PRECIPITATION ALONG
M-55...ESPECIALLY OVER NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY. CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH ON FREEZING DRIZZLE EITHER...BUT IMPACT OF THAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXITING EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH RISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS THAT WILL CONTINUE RISING THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHTER
WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO GET REPLACED BY INCREASING
WAA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL GET BLASTED
NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AIDED ALONG BY
STRENGTHENING SW LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 50+ KTS FEEDING INCREASING GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES ARE
SEEN FOR TONIGHT...ONE LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND
ANOTHER MORE DEFINED WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW INTO
THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING IN
ACROSS THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER...BUT OVERALL DEEP LAYER -DIVQ NOT
OUT OF THIS WORLD...AS IT WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE SFC LOW INTO THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES. NRN
MICHIGAN FORCING WILL BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY WAA.
WEATHER EXPECTATIONS:
LINGERING PATCHY LAKE DRIVEN CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THE NW LOWER
COASTLINE THIS MORNING...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL ALSO START THICKENING UP LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE LOWER 20S IN EASTERN UPPER...TO NEAR 30F IN AND AROUND THE
GTV BAY. CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWS
LIKELY BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NW LOWER LATE IN THE
EVENING. THESE SNOWS WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THINGS ARE LESS CLEAR ACROSS THE SE CWA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO SAG BAY...BUT LIKELY LIGHT SNOWS FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF TIME.
ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC PATTERN...MAYBE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NRN LOWER.
SNOW AMOUNTS...STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD BASED ON LATEST DATA. GENERAL
1-3 INCHES...MAX IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN LOWER INTO THE
STRAITS AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER. LESS THAN AN INCH NEARER THE SAG
BAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FORTHCOMING...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW
ACCUMULATION REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN UPPER.
OVERVIEW: CHANGE TO A MORE ACTIVE...ALBEIT MILDER...PATTERN STARTING
TO KICK INTO OVERDRIVE...WITH NOAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMING
HIGH RES RUC GUIDANCE OF DEEPENING FAR WEST ATLANTIC STORM...ALL THE
WHILE WESTERN RIDGING HAS ESSENTIALLY SUCCUMBED TO STRONG PACIFIC
ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FORMER WILL
ESSENTIALLY ACT AS A SLING-SHOT...PROPELLING OVERHEAD TROUGHING/COLD
POOL TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING ON ITS WAY
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. UNFORTUNATELY...WHILE THE LATTER LOOKS TO
BRING IN SOME "MILDER" AIR AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CONUS...IT
ALSO LOOKS TO DRUM UP SOME SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER TYPE WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA TO END THIS WORK WEEK. OPEN FOR BUSINESS PACIFIC
MEANS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD CONTINUE FOR THE FORECASTABLE FUTURE...
AND WITH COLD AIR LURKING JUST TO OUR NORTH...SETS UP POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL MESSY MIXED PRECIP EVENTS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. WE
SHALL SEE.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PLENTY...WITH EMPHASIS NO
DOUBT CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS/AND TIMING OF EXPECTED
LATE SEASON WINTER STORM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. HEADLINE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADDRESSED.
DETAILS: UNFORTUNATELY...STILL ONE VERY CHALLENGING...AND HENCE
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HEADING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. PROBLEMS ARE REALLY TWO-FOLD...CENTERING ON EXACT THERMAL
PROPERTIES AND EVIDENCE DEEP MOISTURE MAY DEPART FOR A TIME THURSDAY
MORNING...LEAVING OPEN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SYSTEM DRIVING ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY IS CURRENT WEST COAST WAVE
EXPECTED TO RACE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...DEPARTING OFF TO OUR EAST
QUICKLY ON FRIDAY. TACKLING THE FIRST CONCERN (THERMAL FIELDS): MID
LEVEL WAVE ITSELF CONTINUES TO LOOK DISJOINTED ON ITS PASSAGE...
WHICH PROBABLY ACCOUNTS FOR CONTINUED RATHER WIDE RANGE IN EXACT
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. 12Z ECWMF
EASILY FURTHEST SOUTH...KEEPING MAIN SURFACE WAVE TIED TO SOUTHERN
PORTION OF VORT LOBE...PASSING IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY AN ALL SNOW
SCENARIO FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32...WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE FURTHER SOUTH (TRANSITION TO JUST RAIN DOWN NEAR SAGINAW
BAY). WHILE FURTHER NORTH...ALL OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE OFFERING
VARIOUS THERMAL SOLUTIONS...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE NORTHERN MEMBERS
SHOWING EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN REMAINING ALL
SNOW. AS FOR THE SECOND CONCERN (FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THURSDAY
MORNING): COULD EASILY ENVISION A LOSS OF DEEP SATURATION FOR A TIME
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN LOWER AS
INITIAL WING OF STRONG WAA/CONVERGENCE PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH...WAITING ON APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT LATER IN THE DAY TO
DRIVE REEMERGENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE. MODEL DERIVED SOUNDINGS
PARTIALLY CONCUR...WITH MOISTURE SHALLOWING OUT JUST ABOVE -10C.
THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY SET UP A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO BEFORE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM...WHICH MAY BE A HIGH IMPACT TRAVEL EVENT
IF/WHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHTS SNOWS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. KINDA POINTLESS
TO INCLUDE THIS TYPE OF SPECIFICS JUST YET WHEN DEALING WITH
CONTINUED GUIDANCE CHAOS...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...SURFACE LOW
BACKSIDE CAA AND ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD CHANGE ANY MIXED
PRECIP BACK TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RAIN OR A MIXTURE HANGING ON LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY ON
FRIDAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES: AS MENTIONED...JUST NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED WITH DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MID LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE
REFLECTION BOTH APPEAR TO WEAKEN ON THEIR PASSAGE. SYSTEM DOES HAVE
A RATHER HEALTHY MOISTURE TAP WITH IT...WITH CONNECTION TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HELPING SPIKE PWAT VALUES TO NEAR THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH BY LATER THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A DECENT PRECIP
MAKER (NOTHING TOO HEAVY GIVING WEAKENING SUPPORT)...AND AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS EXCEED
HALF INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS BY THE TIME EVERYTHING WRAPS UP
FRIDAY. OF COURSE...SNOW AMOUNTS ALL TIED TO THERMAL FIELDS...WITH
THE GREATEST SUPPORT FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MUCH TOUGHER CALL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. GIVEN ARRAY OF UNCERTAINTIES...SIMPLY CANNOT JUSTIFY
MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS THE
MAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER RANGING
FROM AN INCH OR TWO NEAR THE TIP OF THE MITT...TO JUST A DUSTING
SOUTH OF M-68. WHILE NOT FORTHCOMING ON THIS SHIFT...COULD
EVENTUALLY SEE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
BRIDGE.
REST OF THE FORECAST: WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON EARLY PERIOD
SYSTEM...TOOK MORE OF A GENERIC GUIDANCE BLEND APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
ATTENDANT QUICK SHOT OF CAA. FORTUNATELY...THIS AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE
NOWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...AND HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 30S. THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP NEXT WAVE
AND AXIS OF PRECIPITATION OFF TO OUR SOUTH TO START THE WEEKEND.
PLENTY OF QUESTIONS/UNCERTAINTY THERE-ON-AFTER...WITH SOME HINTS
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING BAROCLINIC AXIS WILL INTERACT WITH ADDITIONAL
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES...THE TWO WORKING IN TANDEM TO
DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA TO START
NEXT WORK WEEK. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH AND QUICK THIS FRONT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES (IF IT DOES AT ALL) WILL DICTATE JUST
HOW "WARM" CONDITIONS BECOME SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 40S BOTH DAYS OVER NORTHER LOWER
MICHIGAN...JUST A TOUCH COOLER NORTH OF THE STRAITS. LETS GET
THROUGH THIS FIRST SYSTEM...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO REVISIT THESE
LATER PERIODS IN COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
SLOWED THE TIMING DOWN ON THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE NIGHT ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE STATE AS THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE ON THE
TRACK. THE MAIN IMPACT OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE LOWERING OF THE CIGS
AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THEN BY 12Z WITH THE WARM FRONT ON
OUR DOORSTEP, THE VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS SNOW MOVES IN, AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WILL BE EXPECTING AS MIX NEAR TVC AND MBL
AROUND 12Z, AND THEN ALL RAIN BY 15Z AS THE WARM AIR FLOODS INTO
THE REGION. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A MIX THROUGH 18Z AT APN AND
PLN AS THE WARM FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE NE LOWER, AND IS
HUNG UP AT THE STRAITS. SFC TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MORNING, SO WON`T EXPECT ANY FREEZING RAIN,
EXCEPT FOR WHAT RAIN FALLS ON UNTREATED PAVEMENT, SO THAT
SCATTERED ICE PATCHES WILL FORM.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...MSB
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
405 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2014
Still expect that the leading edge of the showers currently over
northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas to continue to progress
northeastward into central Missouri early this evening, and then
move into northeast and east central Missouri by mid-late evening.
This goes along well with the latest runs of the RAP and our
localWRF which shows these showers being generated by 925-850mb
moisture convergence ahead of mid-level shortwave trough currently
western Oklahoma. These models show that this shortwave will
lift northeastward this evening and get sheared out as it lifts
through the CWA around 06Z, though low level moisture convergence
will be set up over the area through 12Z warranting high chance or
likely pops through the night.
The increase in clouds and the gradient winds staying up tonight
should keep temperatures from falling like they have the past few
nights. They may drop initially as the rain begins, but
temperatures are expected to remain above freezing with this event
because of the strong warm air advection. Went on the cooler side
of MOS for lows tonight given how low the dewpoints currently are.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2014
Ongoing showers and a few thunderstorms at daybreak on Thursday
should continue to lift northeast away from forecast area.
Otherwise, will see a break in activity til main frontal boundary
approaches region late Thursday afternoon over central MO. A few
storms may be severe late Thursday afternoon and evening with strong
low-mid level shear as a 500 mb wind max moves through the area.
The amount of instability is still in question and may be a limiting
factor for the amount and intensity of severe weather. As for high
temperatures, should be in the upper 50s to upper 60s since frontal
passage will be a bit slower than previously forecast.
Activity to taper off after midnight Thursday night as system exits
region. Not a lot of CAA behind this system, so lows will be in the
low 30s to mid 40s.
On Friday should see more precipitation develop as another shortwave
slides southeast through region on northwest flow and wave develops
along tail end of front that just moved through. So some overrunning
pcpn will develop south of forecast area and lift northeast into
forecast area by Friday evening, though best chances will be along
and south of I-70. As for precipitation type, it should be mostly in
the form of rain as colder air is slower to filter in. Could see
some rain mixed with snow after 06z Saturday for northern portions
of forecast area. Precipitation to exit region by daybreak Saturday.
Highs on Friday will be a bit cooler, in the low 50s to low 60s.
Lows Friday night will be in the low 30s far north to around 40 far
south.
On Saturday weak ridging builds in and skies clear out. Highs will
only be in the 50s.
Beyond that ridge moves off to the east on Sunday allowing warmer
weather to return. Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s. Then next in
a series of weather systems to approach the area late Sunday night
through Monday. Most of area has silent slight chance pops with low
chance pops along and east of Mississippi River on Monday. Highs on
Monday will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Then dry weather returns
to region Monday night through Tuesday before next system moves in.
This system is a bit stronger with better low level moisture. Rain
to begin moving in Tuesday night and persist through Wednesday.
Highs will be in the low 50s to low 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2014
Dry and VFR conditions are expected through 00Z. Then area of
showers currently over Oklahoma will move northeastward into
central Missouri, reaching KCOU around 02Z and the St. Louis metro
TAF sites and KUIN around 04Z. The airmass is currently very dry,
so expect VFR conditions through 08Z when visibilities lower to
MVFR. Around this same time, the low level jet will increase, so
have kept LLWS conditions. LLWS will wind down by mid morning as
south winds pick up and the low level jet weakens with mixing. Do
not expect as much MVFR ceilings tomorrow morning as precipitation
moves out of the area, but do expect additional showers and
thunderstorms to move through the TAF sites later Thursday
afternoon and evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Still looks like area of showers over central
Oklahoma will move into the terminal around 04Z. Expect showers to
continue into tomorrow morning with MVFR visibilities late tonight
and early Thursday. LLWS will develop late tonight as the low
level jet intensifies, but will then diminish by mid morning
Thursday as south winds increase and daytime mixing commences.
Expect mainly VFR ceilings on Thursday. Thunderstorms will develop
ahead of a surface cold front that will move through terminal on
Thursday evening. Scattered storms will be in the area as soon as
21Z on Thursday afternoon, so have included them in the TAF with
this issuance.
Britt
&&
.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at Wed 404 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2014
Will keep the Red Flag warning going until 7 pm as criteria is
being met or close to it in the warning area. By early this
evening, the winds will begin the decrease and RH will increase at
the same time that the rain currently entering southwest MO will
be approaching central MO.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.
IL...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
311 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2014
Still expect that the leading edge of the showers currently over
northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas to continue to progress
northeastward into central Missouri early this evening, and then
move into northeast and east central Missouri by mid-late evening.
This goes along well with the latest runs of the RAP and our
localWRF which shows these showers being generated by 925-850mb
moisture convergence ahead of mid-level shortwave trough currently
western Oklahoma. These models show that this shortwave will
lift northeastward this evening and get sheared out as it lifts
through the CWA around 06Z, though low level moisture convergence
will be set up over the area through 12Z warranting high chance or
likely pops through the night.
The increase in clouds and the gradient winds staying up tonight
should keep temperatures from falling like they have the past few
nights. They may drop initially as the rain begins, but
temperatures are expected to remain above freezing with this event
because of the strong warm air advection. Went on the cooler side
of MOS for lows tonight given how low the dewpoints currently are.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2014
Ongoing showers...with some isolated thunderstorms possible early
Thursday morning should continue to lift northeast away from
forecast area. Otherwise, will see a break in activity til main
frontal boundary approaches region late Thursday afternoon over
central MO. A few storms may be severe late Thursday afternoon and
evening with strong low-mid level shear as a 500 mb wind max moves
through the area. The amount of instability is still in question
and may be a limiting factor for the amount and intensity of
severe weather. As for high temperatures, should be in the upper
50s to upper 60s since frontal passage will be a bit slower than
previously forecast.
Activity to taper off after midnight Thursday night as system exits
region. Not a lot of CAA behind this system, so lows will be in the
low 30s to mid 40s.
On Friday should see more precipitation develop as another shortwave
slides southeast through region on northwest flow and wave develops
along tail end of front that just moved through. So some overrunning
pcpn will develop south of forecast area and lift northeast into
forecast area by Friday evening, though best chances will be along
and south of I-70. As for precipitation type, it should be mostly in
the form of rain as colder air is slower to filter in. Could see
some rain mixed with snow after 06z Saturday for northern portions
of forecast area. Precipitation to exit region by daybreak Saturday.
Highs on Friday will be a bit cooler, in the low 50s to low 60s.
Lows Friday night will be in the low 30s far north to around 40 far
south.
On Saturday weak ridging builds in and skies clear out. Highs will
only be in the 50s.
Beyond that ridge moves off to the east on Sunday allowing warmer
weather to return. Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s. Then next in
a series of weather systems to approach the area late Sunday night
through Monday. Most of area has silent slight chance pops with low
chance pops along and east of Mississippi River on Monday. Highs on
Monday will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Then dry weather returns
to region Monday night through Tuesday before next system moves in.
This system is a bit stronger with better low level moisture. Rain
to begin moving in Tuesday night and persist through Wednesday.
Highs will be in the low 50s to low 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2014
Dry and VFR conditions are expected through 00Z. Then area of
showers currently over Oklahoma will move northeastward into
central Missouri, reaching KCOU around 02Z and the St. Louis metro
TAF sites and KUIN around 04Z. The airmass is currently very dry,
so expect VFR conditions through 08Z when visibilities lower to
MVFR. Around this same time, the low level jet will increase, so
have kept LLWS conditions. LLWS will wind down by mid morning as
south winds pick up and the low level jet weakens with mixing. Do
not expect as much MVFR ceilings tomorrow morning as precipitation
moves out of the area, but do expect additional showers and
thunderstorms to move through the TAF sites later Thursday
afternoon and evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Still looks like area of showers over central
Oklahoma will move into the terminal around 04Z. Expect showers to
continue into tomorrow morning with MVFR visibilities late tonight
and early Thursday. LLWS will develop late tonight as the low
level jet intensifies, but will then diminish by mid morning
Thursday as south winds increase and daytime mixing commences.
Expect mainly VFR ceilings on Thursday. Thunderstorms will develop
ahead of a surface cold front that will move through terminal on
Thursday evening. Scattered storms will be in the area as soon as
21Z on Thursday afternoon, so have included them in the TAF with
this issuance.
Britt
&&
.FIRE WEATHER:
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2014
Just a quick update to say that the Red Flag Warning still looks
on track. Southerly winds are increasing from the south late this
morning and will increase into criteria by this afternoon.
Likewise, minimum RH values are also expected to fall throughout
the area this afternoon.
Britt
Previous Discussion Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2014
Critical fire conditions that will merit a Red Flag Warning are
expected to be met for mainly the afternoon hours for a good swath
of our region that will include northeast and central MO and curl
eastward to also include parts of west-central IL and southwest
IL--but should stop short of the Saint Louis Metro area. The 20ft
wind forecast is the primary driving factor of who to include and
not to include, as all areas are expected to drop to around 20%
for minimum RH values and 10hr fuel moisture criteria being met as
well.
The core of the strongest 20ft winds will be over in northeast and
central MO and areas westward but some of the critical winds will
likely take a bit longer into the afternoon to work their way
into parts of southwest IL.
Heightened fire weather conditions will be found for the remainder
of our area, including the Saint Louis metro area, much of
southeast and east-central MO and southern IL.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-
Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.
IL...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Adams IL-Brown
IL-Calhoun IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Pike IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
337 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2014
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CONVECTIVE LOOKING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. RAP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CLOSE TO ADIABATIC
AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 12K-15K FEET AGL SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. SO SHOULD SEE SOME FLAKE SHOWING UP AT THE
SURFACE EVENTUALLY. DID REDUCE THE CHANCE OF SNOW CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS THE WEST. LEFT THE BEST CHANCE AT LIKELY NORTH CENTRAL THIS
EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
ON THURSDAY...A SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE INCREASED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE A SERIES
OF STORMS SYSTEMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A MORE
ACTIVE...LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA/WY/WESTERN DAKOTAS
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON
FRIDAY. CONTINUED COOL THIS PERIOD WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM
ZERO TO 20 ABOVE...AND HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE 20S TO NEAR 40.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WARM-UP BEGINS WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OF SOUTHERN
ALBERTA/MONTANA. THIS WILL INDUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS NORTH CENTRAL TO 20S
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A NICE WARM-UP SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
40S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING THE SATURDAY WARM-UP WILL DEEPEN AND BEGIN TO
MOVE/DEVELOP OVER WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA AS A SIGNIFICANT LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO IOWA/MINNESOTA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO
SNOW SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BACK TO RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BACK TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL...WITH MORE RAIN THAN SNOW SOUTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM 30 NORTH
TO THE 40S SOUTH.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA DEVELOPS IN THE ROCKIES NEAR
COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2014
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FROM KDIK-KMOT WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM KMOT INTO KBIS AND KJMS AFTER 05Z.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS DEVELOPING AT KJMS AFTER 15Z
THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
121 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2014
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
BASED ON LATEST RAP 925MB TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES. WILL SEE A
MILD DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S...WITH READINGS AROUND 70 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NO NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO SET UP OVER SOUTHEAST SD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MN AND NORTHWEST IA.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PRESSURE RISES AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OR EVEN SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS EVEN HITTING MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...NOT CONVINCED THAT
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...OR IF IT IS IT WILL BE A VERY SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHEAST WYOMING...TOWARD THE TRIPLE POINT OF
WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA...AND THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE LIFTING INTO IOWA AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TRACK LIFTS A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON /HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S/ THIS
AIR MASS IS ALSO QUITE DRY...WITH MODEL SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS...THIS DOES PUSH THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN CWA INTO THE HIGH FIRE DANGER CATEGORY. THE DRY AIR
WILL ALSO SEVERELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY.
MODELS DO SHOW SATURATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY COUPLE RESULTING IN A BAND OF RAIN
OR SNOWFALL...BUT MOST LIKELY EAST OF THIS CWA. SO WHILE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
WERE LEFT AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
GOING INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN
THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSURES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO...ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FAIRLY STRONG WAA BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THERE IS DECENT CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THIS...WHICH IS A FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION AS
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. DIFFERENCES SHOW UP SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TO THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL STICK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND
POPS...WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY BRINGING SOME
RAIN IN SUNDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
AND COLDER AIR GETS PULLED SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
EXITING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DROPS BACK OVER THE REGION AND
REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND LOOKS TO BRING
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND INTENSIFY. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
BE SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT BRINGING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP AND CAA MIXING STRONG WINDS OFF THE SURFACE COME
DOWN...EXPECT IT TO BECOME WINDY AT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THESE NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL
ALSO BRING IN MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS TO ALL LOCATIONS. THE OTHER
IMPORTANT ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OFF A DEFORMATION
ZONE/FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS IN OUR
EASTERN AREA. THUS...AT THIS TIME JUST INSERTED SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
AT ATY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
106 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS...WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AT ALI/CRP/VCT. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. HAVE
INCLUDED -SHRA REMARKS AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA AT VCT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS AS TO WHETHER REDEVELOPMENT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
BUT HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH REMARKS AT ALI/CRP FOR THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z WITH A MVFR CEILINGS SETTLING
OVER SOUTH TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST CYCLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST TOMORROW
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
REMARKS AT VCT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS.
EARLIER RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWED AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP
FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER
POPS DRASTICALLY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND JET STREAK NEARBY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH A
FEW BREAKS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE HEADLINES APPEAR
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. UPDATED
PRODUCTS OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS AT VCT AND
ALI DRG THE 09-14Z PERIOD THIS MORNING. ALSO CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
TRANSITION TO MVFR CEILINGS BY MID MORNING TODAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY.
EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS. ANTICIPATE THAT PCPN
WL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY MID MORNING. WIND
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. PATCHY SEA FOG ANTICIPATED DRG
THE 06-12Z THU PERIOD OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS YET EAST OF
CRP AND VCT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS WRN TX. THE BULK OF
THE DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
REGION DURING THE PERIOD. PWAT VALUES OVER THE CWA/MSA ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER THAN NORMAL. THE COMBINATION OF MSTR AND
DYNAMICS WL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION YET WITH INSTABILITY AS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. THUS EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION TODAY. NAM DETERMINISTIC DEPICT 30KT 925MB ONSHORE
FLOW TODAY WHICH IS PROGD TO MIX TOWARD THE SFC. YET FEEL THAT
COOL TEMPS WL LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING. WL FCST BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS YET BELOW THE WIND ADVSY THRESHOLD. JET DYNAMICS AND
SUFFICIENT MSTR SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE WRN CWA.
MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TO
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT OWING TO BOTH WIND AND
SEAS. EXPECT A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY. YET A LOW RISK
THURSDAY AS WIND VEERS TO THE SOUTH. OWING TO THE FOREGOING JET
DYNAMICS AND MSTR...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TODAY AND THURSDAY.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIP FRIDAY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. LINGERING
SCA CONDITIONS FROM SHORT TERM WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LEADING TO W/WNW FLOW OVER
THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND DRYLINE RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA.
EASTERN ZONES WILL STILL SEE LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT SOUTH WINDS AT
THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION MAY HELP TO BRIEFLY MOISTEN THINGS UP ENOUGH TO ENABLE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...BRINGING N/NE WINDS AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SETTLE IN BRIEFLY
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL
LEAD TO A DRY...CLEAR...AND VERY WARM MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT. HAVE GONE WITH 20% POPS
FOR DAY 7 AND DAY 8 AS PWATS MAY INCREASE TO A POINT THAT WILL
ALLOW LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE PROMPTED ME
TO PUT A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. HIGHER WINDS
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL PROBABLY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE
NOT PUT IN FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING DESPITE HIGH MAXIMUM RH VALUES.
GFS MAY BE HINTING AT A COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
ECM DISAGREES. WIND FIELDS ON DAY 8 REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 81 66 88 62 / 50 30 10 10 10
VICTORIA 61 78 65 85 59 / 50 40 10 20 10
LAREDO 65 91 66 95 64 / 30 20 10 10 10
ALICE 63 86 63 93 62 / 50 30 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 64 72 67 79 60 / 50 40 10 20 10
COTULLA 61 88 61 91 56 / 30 20 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 65 84 65 91 64 / 50 30 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 64 74 68 82 63 / 50 40 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
XX/99...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
104 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY LOWER LEVELS HAVE PRECIPITATION
REMAINING MAINLY VIRGA THROUGH THE 18Z HOUR. A NICE SWATH OF PRIMARILY
LIGHT RAIN RIDING IN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHTNING BEING
REPORTED OFF TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST OVER SAN ANTONIO`S AIR SPACE.
KEPT MAINLY VCSH WITH A CENTRAL HUB TEMPO OF PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS
AND VFR OVERCAST. LOWER LEVELS WILL SATURATE UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SO LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING...A MODERATE
CHANCE FOR FOR PRE-SUNRISE IFR DECKS. A BREAK IN THE EVENING INTO
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION-WISE AS REGION FALLS BETWEEN SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. INCREASING INSTABILITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MID
TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEAK WESTERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF RETURNING RAIN...WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ...DURING THIS TAF`S
LATE PERIOD. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A SMATTERING OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A SECOND AREA OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTN AND AFFECT MAINLY THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CWA. HRRR HAS VERIFIED BEST THIS MORNING SO WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE LESS AGGRESSIVE HRRR FOR RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS. TEMP
FCST LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES THERE. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1030 AM. 43
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
VERY LIGHT PCPN CONTINUING TO MOVE IN FROM THE W/SW THIS MORNING
WITH RAINFALL RATES SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE AIR-
MASS SLOWLY MOISTENS. THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. A BRIEF BREAK OVERNIGHT BUT NOT
COMPLETELY DRY AS THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN ALONG WITH STRONG WAA/
ONSHORE FLOW PRODUCES PATCHY AREAS OF -RA/DZ/FG. RAIN CHANCES TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON THURS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN VIA
THE SUBTROPICAL JET. PROGGED JET DYNAMICS (LFQ)/LAPSE RATES LOOK
GOOD...BUT THERE ARE STILL CONCERNS REGARDING INSTABILITY WITH A
LINGERING BKN/OVC DECK LIMITING THE POSSIBLE HEATING. NO MENTION
OF SVR FOR THURS PLANNED ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW DETAILS
EVOLVE TONIGHT.
KEEPING FAIRLY LOW POPS IN FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. WEAK CAA COMBINED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GENERALLY QUIET/DRY
WEEKEND WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS. EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATING A
POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON MON ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF THE
SWLY FLOW ALOFT/POPS FOR SE TX LATE NEXT TUES/WEDS. 41
&&
MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE NORM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS INCREASING AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. LLJ DEVELOPING FROM BRO TO SJT TO AMA AT 06Z AND WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD TO BLANKET THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS AND AREAS
FROM HUNTSVILLE TO GALVESTON AND WELL OUT INTO THE GULF. WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING STEADILY THIS MORNING AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA
FOR ALL WATERS AND HAVE EXTENDED IT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING AND FETCH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BRING IN INCREASING
SWELLS WITH THE WIND WAVE INCREASE LOCALLY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF
NEAR 20 KNOTS NEARING 25-30 KNOTS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MAY PEAK ON THURSDAY AS S/W ROTATES THROUGH NCTX AND
SUBTROPICAL JET NOSES INTO COASTAL AREAS 6 PM THURSDAY. WILL NEED
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA AND POTENTIALLY TRACK SE INTO THE GALVESTON BAY AND NEARSHORE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GRADIENT RELAXES MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AND INTO THE GULF SATURDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 4 AM THROUGH 4 PM SATURDAY. 45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 58 76 64 83 55 / 30 60 20 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 76 65 82 58 / 30 60 20 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 72 66 75 63 / 30 60 30 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1153 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS.
EARLIER RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWED AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP
FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER
POPS DRASTICALLY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND JET STREAK NEARBY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THOUGH A
FEW BREAKS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE HEADLINES APPEAR
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. UPDATED
PRODUCTS OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS AT VCT AND
ALI DRG THE 09-14Z PERIOD THIS MORNING. ALSO CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
TRANSITION TO MVFR CEILINGS BY MID MORNING TODAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY.
EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS. ANTICIPATE THAT PCPN
WL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY MID MORNING. WIND
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. PATCHY SEA FOG ANTICIPATED DRG
THE 06-12Z THU PERIOD OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS YET EAST OF
CRP AND VCT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS WRN TX. THE BULK OF
THE DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER...JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
REGION DURING THE PERIOD. PWAT VALUES OVER THE CWA/MSA ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER THAN NORMAL. THE COMBINATION OF MSTR AND
DYNAMICS WL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION YET WITH INSTABILITY AS THE
LIMITING FACTOR. THUS EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION TODAY. NAM DETERMINISTIC DEPICT 30KT 925MB ONSHORE
FLOW TODAY WHICH IS PROGD TO MIX TOWARD THE SFC. YET FEEL THAT
COOL TEMPS WL LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING. WL FCST BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS YET BELOW THE WIND ADVSY THRESHOLD. JET DYNAMICS AND
SUFFICIENT MSTR SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
MAX TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE WRN CWA.
MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TO
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT OWING TO BOTH WIND AND
SEAS. EXPECT A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY. YET A LOW RISK
THURSDAY AS WIND VEERS TO THE SOUTH. OWING TO THE FOREGOING JET
DYNAMICS AND MSTR...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TODAY AND THURSDAY.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIP FRIDAY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. LINGERING
SCA CONDITIONS FROM SHORT TERM WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LEADING TO W/WNW FLOW OVER
THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND DRYLINE RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA.
EASTERN ZONES WILL STILL SEE LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT SOUTH WINDS AT
THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION MAY HELP TO BRIEFLY MOISTEN THINGS UP ENOUGH TO ENABLE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING...BRINGING N/NE WINDS AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SETTLE IN BRIEFLY
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL
LEAD TO A DRY...CLEAR...AND VERY WARM MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT. HAVE GONE WITH 20% POPS
FOR DAY 7 AND DAY 8 AS PWATS MAY INCREASE TO A POINT THAT WILL
ALLOW LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE PROMPTED ME
TO PUT A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. HIGHER WINDS
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL PROBABLY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE
NOT PUT IN FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING DESPITE HIGH MAXIMUM RH VALUES.
GFS MAY BE HINTING AT A COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
ECM DISAGREES. WIND FIELDS ON DAY 8 REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 70 65 81 66 88 / 40 50 30 10 10
VICTORIA 68 61 78 65 85 / 40 50 40 10 20
LAREDO 74 65 91 66 95 / 30 30 20 10 10
ALICE 70 63 86 63 93 / 30 50 30 10 10
ROCKPORT 69 64 72 67 79 / 40 50 40 10 20
COTULLA 70 61 88 61 91 / 30 30 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 70 65 84 65 91 / 40 50 30 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 69 64 74 68 82 / 40 50 40 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1057 AM PDT WED MAR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A showery and unsettled spring time weather pattern
will persist through Thursday. A few thunderstorms will also be
possible this afternoon and again on Thursday. Temperatures will
gradually cool through the rest of the week. The cooler
temperatures will allow snow to fall over the mountains and the
higher elevations of the Inland Northwest. A wetter but warmer
system will track into the region on Friday and persist into the
weekend. This will result in widespread rain and high mountain
snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Forecast update sent out for the rest of this morning through this
afternoon. I generally decreased chances for precip and cloud
cover across the region for this morning, especially across the
northern half. Visible satellite imagery shows quite a bit of
clear across much of the region. We will continue to destabilize
into this afternoon as surface temps warm up. A 500 mb cold pool
of around -28 degrees Celsius should provide enough instability
for isolated to scattered showers across much of the region,
especially across the mountains. The GFS and NAM model solutions
show the best instability of up to around 200 J/KG of surface base
CAPE across the extreme SE portions of WA and into the central ID
Panhandle. Equilibrium heights will be up to around 20 kft or so,
which is suitable for some isolated thunderstorms. This will
include locations in the Northeast Blue Mountains and foothills,
Palouse, L-C Valley, Camas Prairie and in the Central Panhandle
Mtns. There is also a chance we could see an isolated thunderstorm
or two across the Northeast Mtns and Northern Panhandle, but
confidence is even lower due to weaker instability off of the
models exhibited here.
Another upper level low pressure system is beginning to push into
western WA and OR this morning. This is producing some light
precip west of the Cascades with some mid to high level cloud
cover pushing east of the Cascade crest and into the western
basin. This cloud cover is expected to limit the surface heating
over the Cascades this afternoon; in turn, this will limit how
much instability that can be achieved. I went ahead and removed
thunderstorms from the forecast in this area. We will see an
increasing chance for showers this afternoon into the Cascades
with this precip spreading further into eastern WA and into the ID
Panhandle through tonight. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The region will be under an unstable air mass this
afternoon with Scattered showers developing across much of the
region by the early afternoon hours. Deeper convection will be
possible near the KPUW and KLWS TAF sites after 20Z with isolated
thunderstorms possible. However, confidence for thunderstorms is
not high enough at this time to include in the TAFs. A low
pressure system spinning offshore of WA this morning will push
inland tonight. This will push across a band of rain through the
overnight hours from southwest to northeast. Moist upslope flow at
the KGEG, KSFF and KCOE TAF sites is expected to drop cigs into
MVFR category through Thursday morning; MVFR cigs will also be
possible at KEAT overnight with the rain. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 37 48 33 47 38 / 30 70 80 40 100 80
Coeur d`Alene 51 34 45 33 47 36 / 30 70 90 60 90 90
Pullman 52 38 47 34 49 39 / 50 70 70 50 90 100
Lewiston 57 41 52 36 55 44 / 50 70 70 50 70 80
Colville 56 32 51 34 51 35 / 40 60 70 30 100 80
Sandpoint 48 32 44 34 45 34 / 40 60 90 70 90 90
Kellogg 48 34 44 33 46 35 / 50 70 100 80 90 100
Moses Lake 59 39 57 38 55 40 / 20 40 20 20 80 40
Wenatchee 58 38 56 37 53 36 / 30 50 20 20 80 50
Omak 59 34 56 33 51 34 / 20 50 30 20 70 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
956 AM PDT WED MAR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A showery and unsettled spring time weather pattern
will persist through Thursday. A few thunderstorms will also be
possible this afternoon and again on Thursday. Temperatures will
gradually cool through the rest of the week. The cooler
temperatures will allow snow to fall over the mountains and the
higher elevations of the Inland Northwest. A wetter but warmer
system will track into the region on Friday and persist into the
weekend. This will result in widespread rain and high mountain
snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Forecast update sent out for the rest of this morning through this
afternoon. I generally decreased chances for precip and cloud
cover across the region for this morning, especially across the
northern half. Visible satellite imagery shows quite a bit of
clear across much of the region. We will continue to destabilize
into this afternoon as surface temps warm up. A 500 mb cold pool
of around -28 degrees Celsius should provide enough instability
for isolated to scattered showers across much of the region,
especially across the mountains. The GFS and NAM model solutions
show the best instability of up to around 200 J/KG of surface base
CAPE across the extreme SE portions of WA and into the central ID
Panhandle. Equilibrium heights will be up to around 20 kft or so,
which is suitable for some isolated thunderstorms. This will
include locations in the Northeast Blue Mountains and foothills,
Palouse, L-C Valley, Camas Prairie and in the Central Panhandle
Mtns. There is also a chance we could see an isolated thunderstorm
or two across the Northeast Mtns and Northern Panhandle, but
confidence is even lower due to weaker instability off of the
models exhibited here.
Another upper level low pressure system is beginning to push into
western WA and OR this morning. This is producing some light
precip west of the Cascades with some mid to high level cloud
cover pushing east of the Cascade crest and into the western
basin. This cloud cover is expected to limit the surface heating
over the Cascades this afternoon; in turn, this will limit how
much instability that can be achieved. I went ahead and removed
thunderstorms from the forecast in this area. We will see an
increasing chance for showers this afternoon into the Cascades
with this precip spreading further into eastern WA and into the ID
Panhandle through tonight. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected at all sites through most of
the period. The exception will revolve around an MVFR cloud deck
impacting the COE area...and likely just east of SFF. No idea how
extensive the deck is since its totally obscured by high clouds on
satellite. Consequently we utilized RAP model data which shows
drier air moving in from the west by 17z as well as conditional
climatology. Anyway confidence is not high. Otherwise the main
weather feature for this afternoon and early evening will be a
rapid destabilization of the atmosphere and a growing possibility
of showers. Although the instability will not be that
impressive...there will be a small chance of thunderstorms over SE
WA which could be near LWS and perhaps PUW between 21z-02z. MWH
and EAT won`t see much of a chance today...but should see a
growing chance overnight as the atmosphere destabilizes even
further with the approach of a cold upper level low. The low will
head toward the WA/ID border after 06z...which will result in
numerous showers and a band of wraparound precipitation. THERE`S a
small chance of MVFR cigs developing near this band but we did not
have enough confidence to put in prevailing wording. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 37 48 33 47 38 / 30 70 80 40 100 80
Coeur d`Alene 51 34 45 33 47 36 / 30 70 90 60 90 90
Pullman 52 38 47 34 49 39 / 50 70 70 50 90 100
Lewiston 57 41 52 36 55 44 / 50 70 70 50 70 80
Colville 56 32 51 34 51 35 / 40 60 70 30 100 80
Sandpoint 48 32 44 34 45 34 / 40 60 90 70 90 90
Kellogg 48 34 44 33 46 35 / 50 70 100 80 90 100
Moses Lake 59 39 57 38 55 40 / 20 40 20 20 80 40
Wenatchee 58 38 56 37 53 36 / 30 50 20 20 80 50
Omak 59 34 56 33 51 34 / 20 50 30 20 70 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
919 AM PDT WED MAR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. A STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI.
WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THE
AREA LATER THU NIGHT. THEN COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRI. THIS FRONT
WILL SAG S INTO CALIFORNIA FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH A RETURN TO COOL
SHOWERY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL TRENDS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF THE WA COAST THIS AM...WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO PUSH INLAND. THE LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED...AND WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN IS IT MOVES INLAND OVER W WASH THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS REGION...WITH LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT BEST THREAT IS TODAY RATHER THAN THU.
HOWEVER...THREAT NOT AS GOOD AS THAT ON TUE AS INSTABILITY WEAKER..
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGH CASCADES
AT ELEVATIONS 4000 FT AND ABOVE FOR TONIGHT AND THU. LIKELY TO GET 3
TO 6 INCHES ABOUT EVERY 12 HOURS...BUT COULD BE BRIEF BURST SUCH THAT
SOME LOCALES GET MORE DURING THAT PERIOD.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
EVENT THU NIGHT/FRI. AN UPPER LOW NOW IN THE VICINITY OF 45N/160W IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP A MOISTURE TAP INTO THE SUBTROPICS...WHICH WILL
PERSIST AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ONSHORE INTO WRN OREGON/SW
WASHINGTON THU NIGHT...WITH AN OCCLUDING COLD FRONT CONTINUING THE
RAIN INTO FRI. WHERE MODELS STILL DIVERGE IS JUST HOW LONG THIS
FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. THE 06Z NAM WANTS TO PIVOT
THE FRONT OVER W OREGON FRI...WHILE THE 00Z/06Z GFS PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH FASTER WITH LESS QPF FOR OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. OVERALL IT IS APPEARING
FAIRLY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF SPLIT IN THE MOISTURE
FLOW...WITH THE HEAVIEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE
WATER FOCUSING ON THE OR/CA BORDER BY FRI EVENING. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD PROBABLY AVOID MUCH IN THE WAY OF HYDROLOGIC ISSUES FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI SYSTEM IS
THE CASCADE SNOW POTENTIAL. IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OCCLUDES OVER US
IT MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE S WA/N OR CASCADES...MAINLY MT HOOD NORTHWARD.
WITH LIQUID QPF OF 1-2 INCHES...OR 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW
POTENTIAL...POSSIBLE. THIS COULD PUSH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO
ADVISORY OR EVEN PERHAPS WARNING CRITERIA. SNOW LEVELS AND EXPECTED
QPF ARE STILL A LITTLE TOO UNCERTAIN TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE. WEAGLEROCK
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EXTENDED
FCST PERIOD. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL KEEP COOL AND WET
WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING MODERATE
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT THE LATEST MODEL CYCLE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST QPF FOCUSED OVER N CALIFORNIA AND S
OREGON. AFTER THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...DO NOT CURRENTLY SEE ANY
MAJOR SYSTEMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT THERE WILL PLENTY OF
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RUN
ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT AS
THE MAIN LOW MOVES ONSHORE AFTER 06Z THU...BUT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BY 14-16Z THU MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS AROUND 2000-2500 FT
IN SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH 18-20Z THIS MORNING...THEN EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. INCREASING MVFR CIGS AFTER 06-08Z THU WHEN
THE LOW PUSHES INLAND. /27
&&
.MARINE...FEW CHANGES...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SE
TOWARDS THE COLUMBIA RIVER MOUTH TODAY THEN FILL AND OPEN UP THIS
EVENING. GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL COAST
WATERS WHERE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT THIS EVENING WITH WHATS LEFT
OF THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT...BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECT GUSTS TO
PERSIST IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK ON THE HEALS WITH MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR A
COASTAL JET DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS A SYSTEM
GRAZES THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH A GALE THREAT EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGHEST SPEEDS WOULD LIKELY BE INSIDE OF 20 NM
AS A FIRST GUESS. WANT TO SEE HOW THE DETAILS PLAY OUT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS HOWEVER. ANOTHER SIMILARLY STRONG STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY.
SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH A BRIEF SWELL BREAK DOWN TO 9 FT IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING WIND WAVES LOOK TO BE ENOUGH
TO HOLD COMBINED SEAS ABOVE THE 10 FT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. DECIDED
TO PUSH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS OUT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NOW. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS APPEAR PROBABLE WITH THE
SATURDAY SYSTEM. /JBONK
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON
CASCADES.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
PDT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM PDT THURSDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA..
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
512 AM PDT WED MAR 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A showery and unsettled spring time weather pattern
will persist through Thursday. A few thunderstorms will also be
possible this afternoon and again on Thursday. Temperatures will
gradually cool through the rest of the week. The cooler
temperatures will allow snow to fall over the mountains and the
higher elevations of the Inland Northwest. A wetter but warmer
system will track into the region on Friday and persist into the
weekend. This will result in widespread rain and high mountain
snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight...Todays weather will begin quiet
enough...as we are in a brief lull between yesterdays front
and a deep cold core upper level low currently poised around
47n/134w. Model guidance is in very good agreement that this
low will meander toward the coast through the day. As it
does...we expect to see slowly falling or steady 500 mb
temperatures between -27 to -30c. These values are similar to what
was experienced yesterday in the Cascades...and significantly
colder over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. So what does this mean? It suggests we will likely see
a rapid blossoming of showers during the latter half of the day in
response to daytime heating and the resultant instability. Just
about any location in the Inland NW could see some showers during
the afternoon...however whether or not it happens over any given
location is not a sure bet. Based on the positioning of the
low...about 200 miles west of Astoria by 4pm...it would place the
best chances either in the diffluent region over the Cascades or
over NE Washington and the Panhandle due to southwest orographic
ascent. While showers are likely to form this afternoon the
possibility of thunder is tougher to answer. Forcing from the
upper level low will likely remain well west of our forecast area
today so the impetus for thunder will likely have to rely on
diurnal heating combining with the greatest potential instability.
Model soundings and SREF data suggest the best chances will be
reserved for the SE corner of Washington and the southern third of
the Idaho Panhandle. There would also be a small chance over the
Cascades....generally south of Lake Chelan.
For tonight...the threat of thunder will wane markedly with the
loss of diurnal heating...however the low will continue its march
to the east. Just where it ends up by morning is uncertain...as
model guidance places the low as far south as Portland or as far
north as the southern tip of Vancouver Island. Nonetheless the
approach of the low should continue the threat of showers through
the nighttime hours as broad ascent feasts on good mid-level lapse
rates. The chances for showers will steadily increase from the
southwest corner of our forecast area during the evening and
spread NE overnight as a wraparound band of precipitation forms in
addition to the numerous showers. Some model solutions are
predicting moderate amounts of precipitation from this wraparound
band...while snow levels could drop as low as 2500-3000 ft near
the Canadian border. This suggests light to moderate snow could
impact some of the mountain passes as well as a few of the higher
valleys late tonight and continuing into Thursday morning. fx
Thursday through Sunday night...The closed low off the Washington
coast today will move through the Inland Northwest as an open
wave on Thursday. This will lead to an increase in showers
especially over the high terrain of Eastern Washington and North
Idaho where low level upslope flow will enhance shower activity.
As the wave moves into Montana by late Thursday afternoon...sun
breaks on the back side of this wave over Eastern Washington and
North Idaho combined with colder air aloft with 500mb temps near
-29C will destabilize the atmosphere with GFS and NAM stability
parameters showing the potential for a few lightning strikes with
uncapped CAPE values of 200-500 J/KG. Snow levels of 3000-4000
feet in the mountains could also bring light to moderate snow
accumulations. Showers will linger into Thursday evening then
become confined mainly to the Idaho Panhandle overnight as a brief
short wave ridge noses into Central and Eastern Washington ahead
of the next system.
Another low pressure system will set up between 130-140W off
Vancouver Island on Friday. A warm front will move through
bringing widespread rain and mountain snow with snow levels in the
afternoon rising to 4000-5000 feet...increasing further to
4500-6000 feet Friday evening with the lowest values in the
Cascades and northern mountains. The rising snow levels should
limit snow impacts over the mountain passes. The cold front
quickly follows overnight Friday into Saturday. As the upper jet
sags back south of the area, precipitation will once again turn
showery over the weekend with the greatest areal coverage of
showers during the afternoon/early evening hours when the
atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable. Stability parameters
again show a threat for isolated thunderstorms both Saturday and
Sunday especially over the higher terrain of northeast Washington
and North Idaho. Snow levels will range from 4000-5000 feet on
Saturday falling to 3000-4500 feet Sunday. This will bring a
renewed threat for mountain snow accumulations over the passes but
nothing significant is expected at this time with mainly light
accumulations expected. JW
Monday through Wednesday: A low of the WA coast will bring an
active weather pattern for this period. Model agreement is fairly
low with the location of the most precip. The GFS is keeping the
moisture South of the region while the ECMWF is bringing the
moisture through the region. The bulk of the moisture is expected
to impact the Cascades and isolated showers throughout the Inland
Northwest. The timing of the system is expected to begin the
Cascades by Monday night and continue through the rest of the
region on Tuesday and early Wednesday. The temperatures are
expected to be near the normals for this time of year. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected at all sites through most of
the period. The exception will revolve around an MVFR cloud deck
impacting the COE area...and likely just east of SFF. No idea how
extensive the deck is since its totally obscured by high clouds on
satellite. Consequently we utilized RAP model data which shows
drier air moving in from the west by 17z as well as conditional
climatology. Anyway confidence is not high. Otherwise the main
weather feature for this afternoon and early evening will be a
rapid destabilization of the atmosphere and a growing possibility
of showers. Although the instability will not be that
impressive...there will be a small chance of thunderstorms over SE
WA which could be near LWS and perhaps PUW between 21z-02z. MWH
and EAT won`t see much of a chance today...but should see a
growing chance overnight as the atmosphere destabilizes even
further with the approach of a cold upper level low. The low will
head toward the WA/ID border after 06z...which will result in
numerous showers and a band of wraparound precipitation. THERE`S a
small chance of MVFR cigs developing near this band but we did not
have enough confidence to put in prevailing wording. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 37 48 33 47 38 / 40 70 80 40 100 80
Coeur d`Alene 51 34 45 33 47 36 / 50 70 90 60 90 90
Pullman 52 38 47 34 49 39 / 40 70 70 40 90 100
Lewiston 57 41 52 36 55 44 / 40 70 70 40 70 80
Colville 56 32 51 34 51 35 / 50 60 70 30 100 80
Sandpoint 48 32 44 34 45 34 / 60 60 90 60 90 90
Kellogg 48 34 44 33 46 35 / 50 70 100 80 90 100
Moses Lake 59 39 57 38 55 40 / 20 40 20 20 80 40
Wenatchee 58 38 56 37 53 36 / 30 50 20 20 80 50
Omak 59 34 56 33 51 34 / 30 50 30 20 70 50
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$