Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/23/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 252 PM MDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...STILL A RATHER COMPLICATED SITUATION FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY IN TERMS OF SNOW COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. INITIALLY...AIRMASS
IS STILL QUITE DRY WITH MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO DUE TO WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
ARIZONA. AT THE LOW LEVELS...NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS. AS THIS EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...THE LOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP. VERY LITTLE
MODEL CONSENSUS AS THE HRRR/GFS TRIES TO RAMP UP PRECIP AROUND 00Z
AND EARLY EVENING...WHILE RAP IS LESS BULLISH ON SPREADING PRECIP
ON THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE INITIAL DRYNESS...SEEMS THE MODELS ARE A
LITTLE EARLY IN DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT SO
THAT WILL HELP A BIT IN THE PRECIP PROCESS. MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER IN THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS AND
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SHIFT MUCH OF THE PRECIP
FURTHER NORTH OF DENVER...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN LARIMER AND
WELD COUNTIES.

SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS ON THE DRY SIDE ALONG WITH DENVER CYCLONE
IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FROM
NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A RAMP-UP OF SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME WEAK ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF. HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS A BIT FROM EARLIER FORECAST SO NOW LOOKS
LIKE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ON
THE PLAINS AND 3-7 INCHES OVER THE EAST SLOPES. TEMPERATURES
COLDER ON SATURDAY AS READINGS DROP INTO THE 30S BEHIND NEXT COLD
FRONT.

.LONG TERM...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE SINKING
SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM ALONG CONDITIONS TO START CLEARING OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. MODELS DISAGREEING ON FLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEW GFS SHOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
DRASTICALLY DIMINISH THE SNOW...HOWEVER OTHER MODELS SHOWING A
CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WOULD SUPPORT SNOW
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA. COULD POSSIBLY SEE ANOTHER
1-3 INCHES OVER THIS AREA WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE LESS THAN AN INCH. HAVE DECREASED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD WARM UP INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE
PLAINS AND 30S AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SWEEP INTO NORTHEASTER COLORADO. MOST OF
THIS ENERGY SEEMS TO STAY EAST HOWEVER...WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE IT KICKS OUT EAST MONDAY EVENING. THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AS
AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...THEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE PACIFIC AND OVER THE WESTERN STATES TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM
THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN A CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO FRIDAY AS WE REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRENDS IS FOR A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT. BEST WINDOW OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 04-08Z BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO FAR SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL IN THIS WINDOW STILL LOW. BEST CHANCE OF
SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT FRONT BRINGS IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE MOISTURE. SNOW ACCUMULATION AT LOCAL
TERMINALS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH TONIGHT AND 1-3 INCHES ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. RUNWAYS WILL MAINLY BE WET
BUT SOME SLUSH MAY ACCUMULATE IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 941 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL EASE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. A STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY,
THEN MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, AND TRACK EAST OF OUR
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT IS OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY
FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTH.

PER THE RADAR TRENDS OFF TO OUR WEST AND LOOKING AT THE HRRR AND
GFS, WE`VE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE DELMARVA. THERE`S A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PRESENT AND WAA INDUCING SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. BOTH THESE FEATURES CROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATER
TODAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S FAR NORTH AND LOW/MID 50S MOST
OTHER AREAS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN
DELAWARE AND THE ERN SHORE AREAS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY W/NW THIS
MORNING THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AROUND 10 MPH.
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND ARRIVE OVER ERN LAKE ONTARIO AT
12Z SAT. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A WAA PATTERN OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE ONLY POSSIBLE
PCPN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS WHERE SLGT CHC POPS WERE
KEPT IN FROM EARLIER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF NJ WHILE READINGS IN THE
LOW 40S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB THAN THE WRF-NMMB, BUT
THERMALLY THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED BETTER. WITH OUR TUESDAY SYSTEM, THE
GFS TIED ITS DIGGING TO THE ECMWF`S IMPULSE NORTH OF ALASKA AND
PRESTO IT INTENSIFIES THE SFC LOW FASTER AND HAS A CLOSER TO THE
COAST TRACK. IN FACT THE OP GFS AND OP ECMWF LOCATIONS ARE EXTREMELY
CLOSE AND THE FORMER IS DEEPER FASTER. THE LONG WAVE WAVELENGTH
ON THE NIGHT RUN WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET WAS FLATTER, NOT AS
MUCH RIDGING IN THE ROCKIES AND LESS OFF THE EAST COAST. THE NIGHT
RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE SUBDUED THAN THE DAY RUNS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY MORE SOUNDING RUNS BEFORE THIS ONE IS PUT INTO THE BOOKS AND
THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS STILL NORTH OF ALASKA. THE MODEL PATTERN
IS THE SAME, A DEEPENING TROF AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST
COAST. WE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN MOST AREAS. ANYONE
WITH INTERESTS THAT WOULD BE IMPACTED BY THE WEATHER NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, PLEASE FOLLOW THE FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

ONE WOULD NOT EXACTLY THINK ABOUT SNOW BASED ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE
LONG TERM AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR A CHANGE. IN FACT 70 DEGREES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SHOWERS NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA, THE COLDER AIR IS COMING IN SEGMENTS. THUS THE INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
COMPENSATE FOR SOME OF THE CAA. MAX TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO CONTINUITY
AND ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN LAGGING OF LATE. IT WILL BE
BREEZY, WITH WIND GUSTS EASILY REACHING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH.
MORNING SHOWER CHANCES WERE LEFT CLOSE TO CONTINUITY AND NEAREST
THE HIRES NMM-EAST.

THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX ON SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT CLOUDINESS
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO START STREAMING OUR WAY FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES PRECEDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE COUNTERBALANCE WE
WERE NOT FULLY RADIATIONAL WITH OUR MIN TEMPS.

THE DP/DT ON SUNDAY WAS A FLATTER AND MORE SUBDUED WAVE ON THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT. NOW MOST OF THE MODELS EITHER KEEP OUR CWA
ENTIRELY DRY OR JUST GRAZE THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THE UKMET
IS WETTEST. GIVEN THE TREND, WE KEPT SUNDAY DRY. THERE IS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE YET TO COME THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT, SO WE BELIEVE THE
GFS WAS WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CAA ON SUNDAY. CONVERSELY, THE
DAY IS NOT EXACTLY GOING TO BE "SUNNY". FOR THIS REASON MAX TEMPS
WERE A BLEND OF THE COLDER GFS AND WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WAVE SHOULD BLOCK MOISTURE FROM GETTING INTO
OUR CWA ONCE THAT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES. THERE MIGHT BE SOME SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES NORTH, BUT FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL NOT BE CHOCK FULL OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

A MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT MORE TYPICAL OF MID FEBRUARY THAN LATE MARCH DAY
ON MONDAY. THE GFS RUN LOOKED LIKE A COLD ONE, AND THUS WE DID NOT
LOWER MAX TEMPS AS MUCH AS IT WOULD SUGGEST. CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLIER THAN
USUAL BEFORE LEVELING OFF.

THEN ONTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WE DID UP POPS TO LIKELY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS MOST MODELS HAVE MEASURABLE PCPN. THE
UKMET WHICH IS THE EASTERNMOST OP SOLUTION TONIGHT MAY NOT, BUT WE
DONT SEE THOSE DETAILS AT THIS TEMPORAL RANGE. THE TELECONNECTION
INDICES ARE STILL SHOWING A POSITIVE SPIKING IN THE PNA AND THE NAO
REMAINING POSITIVE. THE SIMPLISTIC CONCLUSION WOULD BE A DIGGING
BUT PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE (STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE), A FAIRLY RAPID DEEPENING SYSTEM AT THAT SEEMS
LOGICAL. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE SUBDUED THAN THE OP. ON
THE OTHER END, THE OP CAN GGEM WENT OFF THE CONVECTIVE END (TTS
NEAR 60) EAST OF DELAWARE. ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS FARTHER EAST.
WE`RE STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY, SO THIS PACKAGE REFLECTS A COMBO OF
THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. GOOD ENOUGH TO UP POPS. WE KEPT THE
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE AT THE START FROM AROUND THE FALL LINE SOUTHEAST
BECAUSE OF THE WARM FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND AS A
SURROGATE THAT EVEN IF IT WERE TO SNOW, THE INITIAL LIGHTER
INTENSITY WOULD HAVE PROBLEMS ACCUMULATING. AFTER THAT, WE CHANGE
OUR CWA`S PTYPE OVER TO SNOW AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND SO WOULD
THE PCPN INTENSITY. WE CAN NOT EMPHASIZE ENOUGH THAT NONE OF THIS
IS SET IN STONE YET AS A FASTER INTENSIFICATION AND FARTHER WEST
TRACK THAN THE CURRENT CONSENSUS WOULD MEAN MORE SNOW AND LESS
RAIN AND EVEN ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. EVEN WITH OUR
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS, WIND IS LIKELY TO BE MORE OF A FACTOR THAN
IT HAS BEEN WITH PAST WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEMS.

THIS EVENT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING OVER THAN CONTINUING ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODELING. BUT GIVEN TIMING IS
NOT PERFECT, WE KEPT A CHANCE OF MORNING SNOW WEDNESDAY. IMPROVEMENT
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MARCH SUN DOES A GOOD JOB OF EITHER MELTING
THE SNOW OR IGNORING ITS EXISTENCE. EITHER WAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, WE BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY. EVEN
WARMER WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY
OUTLOOK FROM CPC HAS NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR A CHANGE!

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR FLYING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND CREST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY CLR SKIES. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME NW/W GUSTS
THIS MORNING UP TO 20 KTS WHEN MIXING BEGINS...BUT BY
AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF. TONIGHT..THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SFC WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO SRLY OR SERLY. ONLY
SOME CI/CS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W/SW.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT KTTN TO KRDG IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR. WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OVERALL VFR. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD ARE EASTERN TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THERE ARE STILL A FEW G25 ACROSS THE NRN
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND OF DECREASING GUSTS
SUPPORTS THE LOWERING OF THE SCA FLAG THIS MORNING. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL MOSTLY BE 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVER DEL
BAY...WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WRLY AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL TURN SRLY/SERLY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SPEEDS
EARLY...THEN SLOWLY INCREASING LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT, HOWEVER WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER
WATERS MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE WINDS. THERE COULD BE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. GREATER
CONFIDENCE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE SEAS MIGHT ALSO REACH CRITERIA.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OR BECOME SUB-ADVISORY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM,
HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY AND THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GORSE/O`HARA/KRUZDLO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 937 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AND INCREASING UP TO 10 TO
15 MPH AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. CONVERGENCE LINE
THAT HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NEAR
AND OFFSHORE OF THE TREASURE COAST SHOULD WEAKEN AS ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MORE UNIFORM INTO THE AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL INDICATES ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MARTIN COUNTY INTO
THE AFTERNOON SO RAIN CHANCES ENDING IN THIS REGION BY LATE
MORNING LOOKS REASONABLE. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

WHILE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE ON THE DECLINE...THERE STILL REMAINS
AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES TODAY. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IF MORNING CALLS TO BEACH RESCUE
CONFIRM A HIGHER THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
CONDS AT KSUA AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE ONSHORE THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-5 FEET.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/VOLKMER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1014 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
340 PM CDT

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PERSISTS THIS WEEK IN ZONAL TO SOMEWHAT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUING TO VARY GREATLY DAY TO DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND
SUPPORT A LONG FETCH OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA.  HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IDEAL.  MOISTURE IS
QUITE LIMITED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH...WITH SINGLE DIGIT
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORTIVE SATURATION
ALOFT.  THE LAKE ITSELF AS A SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER THE PORTION OF THE LAKE ADJACENT
TO THE AREA OF CONCERN.  GIVEN THESE QUESTIONS...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH AROUND AN INCH
OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE DAY ABOUT 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN SUNDAY NIGHT THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND
DESPITE THE RECENT DECREASE IN SNOW COVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE LOWEST LYING SHELTERED AREAS. THE RECORD LOW FOR
MONDAY IN CHICAGO IS 5 DEGREES AND IN ROCKFORD IS 1 BUT THOSE DO
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN DANGER OF BEING BROKEN. RECORD COLD HIGHS ARE
AROUND 20 THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND THOSE ALSO APPEAR SAFE FOR NOW.

UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGHS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AFTER TONIGHT COMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.  DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE IN THE STRENGTH OF A
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...AND THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW...BUT ALL AGREE ON THE PASSAGE OF AT LEAST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.  AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE NAM AND PUT IN 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR PART OF
THE AREA...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A BLEND OF POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE
CATEGORY.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON WEDNESDAY...AND IF PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MOST OF THE
DAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE
COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST REACH INTO THE UPPER
30S OR LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE RIDGE CAN WORK ITS WAY
EAST EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK.  WEDNESDAYS RIDGE IS WELL TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.  WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.
IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CAN HOLD OFF TILL LATER FRIDAY THEN
BOTH DAYS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD THOUGH BREEZY. SATURDAY THEN COOLS
OFF AGAIN UNDER POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW BUT CLEARING SKIES AND
LATE MARCH SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO WARM UP
A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LENNING

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* NORTHEAST WINDS TURNING NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

* WIND DIRECTION SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LAKE
  INFLUENCES POSSIBLE.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...

A PUSH OF AIR OFF THE LAKE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING INTO
ORD/MDW AT 03Z. THIS WILL TURN WINDS NORTHEAST BASED ON THE MESO
OBS TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH MDW JUST NOW SHOWING NE WINDS.
TOUGH TO SAY HOW LONG THIS WILL LAST BUT DO THINK THAT WINDS WILL
COME BACK AROUND TO NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CIGS IN THE 012 TO 020 RANGE ARE TO THE EAST OF
ORD/MDW WITH GYY REPORTING CIGS AT TIMES OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO
WITH OVERCAST SKIES BEING REPORTED DOWNTOWN. GIVEN THE PUSH OFF
THE LAKE WILL INCLUDE A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD AT ORD/MDW AND TEMPO
BKN MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXTENT OF
CLOUDS TO THE EAST THANKS TO THE MID DECK SHROUDING ANYTHING ON
SATELLITE. STILL POSSIBLE THAT MORE CIGS DEVELOP OFF THE LAKE
OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LIMITED.

FROM 00Z...

WINDS ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD THANKS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE INFLUENCES. HIGH PRESSURE IS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WILL
SLIDE THIS WAY INTO SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THE LAKE HAS ALLOWED FOR A SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AT GYY AND ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY AT 2340Z SHOWS AN INLAND PUSH OF THESE NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH THEM BARELY TO THE EAST OF MDW...THOUGH IT APPEARS THIS MAY
BE LOSING ITS ORGANIZATION. WITH DAYLIGHT STARTING TO WANE AND
COLDER AIR SPREADING IN THE INLAND PUSH WILL COME TO A HALT BUT
THE WIND SHIFT MAY CREEP INTO MDW. ANY SHIFT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND MDW STILL REPORTING
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THOUGH GYY MAY STILL REMAIN NORTHEAST
OR NORTH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. COLDER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SO LAKE-LAND TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER SUGGESTING THAT A LAKE BREEZE PROCESS SIMILAR TO TODAY
WOULD BE MITIGATED. HOWEVER...LAKE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THANKS TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS SETS
UP GYY MAY SEE NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE SITES TO
THE WEST REMAIN NORTHWEST...AND PERHAPS EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST IF
CONVERGENCE SETS UP CLOSE TO THE ILLINOIS SHORE. OVERALL HAVE
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW WINDS AT ORD/MDW/GYY WILL PLAY BUT
FEEL THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR ORD/MDW TO STAY
NORTHWESTERLY...AND GYY SEE NORTH OR NORTHEAST FOR AT LEAST PART
OF THE DAY.

CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO LEAVING SPOTTY AREAS
OF LOWER VFR CLOUDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEGUN TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOWER VFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT AM NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT FOR THIS IN OTHER
DATA. THERE IS HOWEVER AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR LAKE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION BKN030 AT GYY OVERNIGHT FOR A
TIME...BUT KEEP THE REMAINING SITES SCATTERED. DEPENDING ON WHERE
LAKE CONVERGENCE SETS UP SUNDAY GYY MAY BE IN AND OUT OF LOWER END
VFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTH
  OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR A SHIFT TO
  NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR...THEN CHC -SN/MVFR MONDAY EVE/NIGHT.

TUESDAY...CHC-SN/MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

WEDNESDAY...SLGT CHC -SN. MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHC -RA/MVFR.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
324 PM CDT

WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...A PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
LAKE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS HAVE VARIED
OVER THE LAKE TODAY AND CONTINUE TO VARY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
SPEEDS OVER THE LAKE LIKELY BECOMING MORE UNIFORM AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE TO BE IN THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE TONIGHT...WITH WAVES FURTHER BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THIS INCLUDES THE NEARSHORE WATERS
WHERE WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND SO
HAVE ISSUED AN SCA DURING THIS TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WAVES
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED BEYOND 15Z SUNDAY...AND THUS A POSSIBILITY FOR
SCA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST BEYOND THE CURRENT END TIME. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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  [top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
900 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2014

Plenty of mid-level moisture will be streaming into IL from the
west overnight, keeping clouds over a majority of our forecast
area through morning. The only exception may be north of Peoria
where drier air may reduce the mid-clouds and leave just some
cirrus at times. The clouds will work to insulate the lower
levels and keep low temps from dropping down to guidance numbers.
Will be increasing lows a few degrees where thicker clouds will
be more prominent across at least the mid section of the area.
Sunshine should break through Sunday morning as dry air closer to
the center of the high filters in from the NW.

Radar returns this evening and overnight, associate with the cloud
layer, will not produce any precip. Virga will be the primary
result. Updates this evening were mainly to temp grids with minor
adjustments to clouds. Updated forecast info will be available
shortly.

Shimon
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 659 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2014

VFR clouds at 3500 FT over CMI and DEC are continuing to depart
to the east as high pressure builds into IL from the west. There
should be a period of little to no mid-clouds until some moisture
to the north over Lake Michigan gets pushed south into eastern IL
after midnight. We could see a return of 3500FT clouds toward 09z
as depicted by the RAP and HRRR, with some support from the NAM as
well. That period of low clouds could linger until late morning on
Sunday before dry air closer to the center of the high finally
dissipates the majority of our cloud cover. The remainder of
Sunday should be mostly clear with just some cirrus over the last
6 hours of the TAF.

The surface pressure gradient and pressure rises will continue to
create NW winds in the 10-15kt range all night and through most of
the day tomorrow.

Shimon
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 316 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2014

Main concerns this forecast period will be the chance of snow for
early next week, Mon through Tue. Then the concern shifts to later
part of the week with a stronger system and chances of rain. Short
term models differ on strength of the first system with NAM/SREF
stronger than the GFS/ECMWF. Models look similar til Monday
morning, but then differ during the system, which is the most
critical time. This will have to be watched over the next couple
of model runs since this appears to be the first or second run
that the this has occurred. All models do have mid level wave and
pcpn moving across the area at the same time, just amount is
different.

Extended models agree on pattern shifting from northwest flow to
more zonal for later part of the week. So, there is some agreement
with the second system timing and resulting weather, which looks
to start little sooner and last little longer than previous
forecasts.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

Cold high pressure will continue over the area through Sunday
night and then the high will shift to the east, allowing a weather
system to move into the area for Monday afternoon through early
Tuesday morning. With the model differences/issues mentioned above
believe it best to keep pops in chance category, though in the
40-50 range, during the time of most of the pcpn. Models do agree
on timing of pcpn starting Monday afternoon in the western half of
the cwa, and then continuing through Mon night and then across the
eastern half of the cwa for Tuesday morning, and ending by
afternoon. Temps will be sufficiently cold in the atmosphere that
almost all the pcpn should be snow during the period. However,
there is a small chance that there could be a little bit more warm
air in the lower levels in the southeast, that some of the pcpn
could be a mix of rain and snow. However, because of the model
differences, am not going to mention that at this time and just
keep all pcpn in form of snow. Forecasted snowfall amounts will be
an inch or less over the northern part of the area through Tue
morning. South and southeastern areas will be less, given the
possible mix and the slightly warmer temperatures. If, however,
the stronger NAM does verify, then amounts will likely be more
than an inch. But keeping it on the lower side for now.

Temps will remain around 15 degrees below normal through the
period. MOS guidance looks ok.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday

Cool high pressure then returns for a brief period Tue night
through Wed night, before the next weather system for rest of the
week. This next system appears to come in two waves, with warm air
advection pcpn coming Thursday and then the main system/front
coming Thur night into Friday. Pcpn type will be all liquid and
for now will just have showers. However, based on current model
runs, early indications are that there could be some thunder in
there as well. Will continue to monitor this in the days ahead.
Temps will finally warm back to around normal.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 521 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...THE SPRING-LIKE DAY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY EVEN SEE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-39.  THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL SEE A DRY WEEKEND...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING BOTH NW INDIANA AND FAR NE ILLINOIS TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.  ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AND LATE NEXT WEEK.

REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY...
A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER NW MINNESOTA WITH A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  THE WARM
FRONT HAS ADVANCED FROM MOLINE IL THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND HAVE
NOTICED WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO COME AROUND TO SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST.  STILL EXPECTING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S DOWNTOWN AND
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY ONCE THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH.  FAR NE
IL...LAKE COUNTY...WILL HOLD ON TO SE WINDS THE LONGEST AND WILL
MOST LIKELY MISS OUT ON 50S TODAY.  THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN IS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY BECAUSE
THE LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING.  WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT AND COLD
AIR BEGINS TO FLOOD INTO THE REGION.

RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ALONG THE WARM FRONT RIGHT
NOW NORTH OF BURLINGTON IOWA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THOSE SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST...BUT NOT BUYING INTO THAT THEORY AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN LARGE.  GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE.  STILL CONCERNED ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD
HAVE AMPLE FORCING FROM THE FRONT...LOW...AND IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.   AS SUCH HAVE A BAND OF LOW END CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP OUT OF ANY GIVEN
SHOWER...EXCEPT FOR OVER NW INDIANA.  FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AND MAY
SEE UPWARDS OF 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN.  STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT...BUT MORE THAN THE REST OF THE CWA.

TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL IL AND TO AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS NW INDIANA TONIGHT.  TEMPS REBOUND A LITTLE SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S DOWN SOUTH.  EXPECTING THE
MORNING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING AS FLOW
TURNS OFF OF THE LAKE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE
PLAINS...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW SITUATION. RIGHT
NOW NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY THE SET UP AS DELTA TS ARE MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT THE MODELED WIND FIELDS SHOW GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER THE
LAKE.  THE LOCAL ARW IS ALREADY INDICATING A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  KEPT
THE POPS A BIT MORE BROAD AT THIS POINT WITH MAX POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.  HAVE THE BAND STARTING OVER NW INDIANA...SHIFTING EAST TO
NEAR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN IL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN
SHIFTING BACK ACROSS NW INDIANA AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

ONCE AGAIN DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN IF THE SNOW WILL HAPPEN AND
WHERE IT WILL FALL...KEPT PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT. HAVE LESS THAN HALF
INCH JUST ALONG THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPS...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID
20S.  SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND ROTATES EAST
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY EVENING.  ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE CWA TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THERE IS BRIEF RIDGING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND/OR
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY MORNING.  HAVE SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.  ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
BE TALKING ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK
DECENT.  TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS SOUNDINGS...THE ONLY ISSUE I
SEE IS A SHRINKING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE EVENT GOES ON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW LATE NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS IS
MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK.  THIS OF COURSE WILL PLAY A
ROLL IN PRECIP TYPES...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE PRECIP
OVER THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
RISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRECIP TYPES LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOWS PATH AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE TEMPS.  FOR NOW USED THE
FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS TO CREATE THE WEATHER GRIDS.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* SOUTH WINDS TURNING WEST EARLY THIS EVENING THEN NORTHWEST BY
  MID EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE TIL LATE EVENING.

* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM MID EVENING ON.

* SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF ORD NOW LEAVING BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS NEAR RFD BUT THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EASTWARD INTO NW ILLINOIS SO
WINDS WILL BE TURNING WEST AT RFD IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME
SPRINKLES LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT...BUT COULD BRIEFLY WET RUNWAYS. AM CONCERNED ABOUT
WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND HAVE BUMPED GUSTS UP
TO 28-30 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD BEHIND
THE FRONT. AM SEEING 30+ KT GUSTS UPSTREAM WITH HIGHEST GUSTS
WHERE CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED SO AM EXPECTING THAT MAGNITUDE MAY BE
REDUCED THANKS TO DARKNESS AND CLOUD COVER BY THE TIME THE
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS WELL BUT MUCH OF THE
UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER MAY BE DIURNALLY DRIVE AND MAY SCATTER
BEFORE ARRIVAL.

MDB

FROM 18Z...

VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH VFR CONDS PREVAILING
AT ALL AIRFIELDS. WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE...THIS
HAS HELPED TO TURN WINDS ALONG THE ILLINOIS LAKESHORE TO MORE OF A
080-100 DEG RANGE WITH A WEAK LAKE BREEZE. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MAKING MUCH OF A PUSH TOWARDS MDW/ORD AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECT
WINDS AT THOSE TAF SITES TO REMAIN 120-140 DEG. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS STEADILY LIFTING NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TAF SITES ARND 21-22Z...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS QUICKLY VEERING
TO 190-240 DEG. IN ADDITION BETTER MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE AND
RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO ARND 5KFT AGL. STILL VFR CONDS. A FEW
HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING SOME SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-04Z ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN...HOWEVER WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE NEAR SFC...THIS MAY END UP BEING VIRGA
OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. SO HAVE HELD MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF
CURRENT TAFS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SAT. IN ADDITION COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME HAVE
ONLY BROUGHT CIGS DOWN TO 3KFT AGL SAT MID-MORNING. CIGS SHUD
RETURN TO VFR CONDS BY EARLY SAT AFTN. ANOTHER CHALLENGE FOR SAT
IS THAT WINDS MAY FLOP OVER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTN HOURS. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS NE WINDS WILL ONLY OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE...SO WILL MAINTAIN NW WINDS AT ORD/MDW.

BEACHLER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEED TRENDS...MEDIUM
  CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS AROUND 30 KT MID EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WOULD LIGHT THROUGH MID
  EVENING.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN AND SUB VFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

MONDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

TUESDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...CHANCE -RA AND SUB VFR.

RC

&&

.MARINE...
348 PM CDT

VARYING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES
PUSH OVER THE LAKE. SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST...EXPECT
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND WINDS OF
20-25 KT IN THE NEARSHORE TONIGHT. WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE MARKED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
     LMZ745...9 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 348 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...THE SPRING-LIKE DAY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY EVEN SEE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-39.  THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL SEE A DRY WEEKEND...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING BOTH NW INDIANA AND FAR NE ILLINOIS TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.  ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AND LATE NEXT WEEK.

REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY...
A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER NW MINNESOTA WITH A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  THE WARM
FRONT HAS ADVANCED FROM MOLINE IL THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND HAVE
NOTICED WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO COME AROUND TO SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST.  STILL EXPECTING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S DOWNTOWN AND
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY ONCE THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH.  FAR NE
IL...LAKE COUNTY...WILL HOLD ON TO SE WINDS THE LONGEST AND WILL
MOST LIKELY MISS OUT ON 50S TODAY.  THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN IS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY BECAUSE
THE LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING.  WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT AND COLD
AIR BEGINS TO FLOOD INTO THE REGION.

RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ALONG THE WARM FRONT RIGHT
NOW NORTH OF BURLINGTON IOWA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THOSE SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST...BUT NOT BUYING INTO THAT THEORY AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN LARGE.  GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE.  STILL CONCERNED ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD
HAVE AMPLE FORCING FROM THE FRONT...LOW...AND IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.   AS SUCH HAVE A BAND OF LOW END CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP OUT OF ANY GIVEN
SHOWER...EXCEPT FOR OVER NW INDIANA.  FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AND MAY
SEE UPWARDS OF 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN.  STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT...BUT MORE THAN THE REST OF THE CWA.

TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL IL AND TO AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS NW INDIANA TONIGHT.  TEMPS REBOUND A LITTLE SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S DOWN SOUTH.  EXPECTING THE
MORNING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING AS FLOW
TURNS OFF OF THE LAKE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE
PLAINS...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW SITUATION. RIGHT
NOW NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY THE SET UP AS DELTA TS ARE MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT THE MODELED WIND FIELDS SHOW GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER THE
LAKE.  THE LOCAL ARW IS ALREADY INDICATING A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  KEPT
THE POPS A BIT MORE BROAD AT THIS POINT WITH MAX POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.  HAVE THE BAND STARTING OVER NW INDIANA...SHIFTING EAST TO
NEAR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN IL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN
SHIFTING BACK ACROSS NW INDIANA AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

ONCE AGAIN DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN IF THE SNOW WILL HAPPEN AND
WHERE IT WILL FALL...KEPT PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT. HAVE LESS THAN HALF
INCH JUST ALONG THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPS...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID
20S.  SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND ROTATES EAST
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY EVENING.  ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE CWA TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THERE IS BRIEF RIDGING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND/OR
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY MORNING.  HAVE SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.  ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
BE TALKING ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK
DECENT.  TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS SOUNDINGS...THE ONLY ISSUE I
SEE IS A SHRINKING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE EVENT GOES ON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW LATE NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS IS
MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK.  THIS OF COURSE WILL PLAY A
ROLL IN PRECIP TYPES...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE PRECIP
OVER THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
RISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRECIP TYPES LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOWS PATH AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE TEMPS.  FOR NOW USED THE
FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS TO CREATE THE WEATHER GRIDS.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* SE WINDS OF 110-140 DEG WILL VEER 190-240 DEG ARND 21Z. SPEEDS
  WILL HOVER ARND 10-13KT THEN WITH VEERING WINDS INCREASE WITH
  GUSTS NEARING 20-22KT.

* POSSIBLY SPRINKLES IN FAR NE ILLINOIS BETWEEN 01-04Z.

* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFT 04Z THROUGH DAYBREAK SAT.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH VFR CONDS PREVAILING
AT ALL ARIFIELDS. WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE...THIS
HAS HELPED TO TURN WINDS ALONG THE ILLINOIS LAKESHORE TO MORE OF A
080-100 DEG RANGE WITH A WEAK LAKE BREEZE. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MAKING MUCH OF A PUSH TOWARDS MDW/ORD AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECT
WINDS AT THOSE TAF SITES TO REMAIN 120-140 DEG. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS STEADILY LIFTING NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TAF SITES ARND 21-22Z...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS QUICKLY VEERING
TO 190-240 DEG. IN ADDITION BETTER MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE AND
RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO ARND 5KFT AGL. STILL VFR CONDS. A FEW
HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING SOME SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-04Z ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN...HOWEVER WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE NEAR SFC...THIS MAY END UP BEING VIRGA
OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. SO HAVE HELD MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF
CURRENT TAFS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SAT. IN ADDITION COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME HAVE
ONLY BROUGHT CIGS DOWN TO 3KFT AGL SAT MID-MORNING. CIGS SHUD
RETURN TO VFR CONDS BY EARLY SAT AFTN. ANOTHER CHALLENGE FOR SAT
IS THAT WINDS MAY FLOP OVER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTN HOURS. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS NE WINDS WILL ONLY OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE...SO WILL MAINTAIN NW WINDS AT ORD/MDW.

BEACHLER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH 4Z SAT.

* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST AFT 4Z SAT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE ORD/MDW WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN AND SUB VFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

MONDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

TUESDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...CHANCE -RA AND SUB VFR.

RC

&&

.MARINE...
348 PM CDT

VARYING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES
PUSH OVER THE LAKE. SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST...EXPECT
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND WINDS OF
20-25 KT IN THE NEARSHORE TONIGHT. WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE MARKED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
     LMZ745...9 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT

SYNOPSIS...THE SPRING-LIKE DAY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY EVEN SEE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-39.  THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL SEE A DRY WEEKEND...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING BOTH NW INDIANA AND FAR NE ILLINOIS TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.  ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AND LATE NEXT WEEK.

REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY...
A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER NW MINNESOTA WITH A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  THE WARM
FRONT HAS ADVANCED FROM MOLINE IL THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND HAVE
NOTICED WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO COME AROUND TO SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST.  STILL EXPECTING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S DOWNTOWN AND
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY ONCE THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH.  FAR NE
IL...LAKE COUNTY...WILL HOLD ON TO SE WINDS THE LONGEST AND WILL
MOST LIKELY MISS OUT ON 50S TODAY.  THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN IS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY BECAUSE
THE LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING.  WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT AND COLD
AIR BEGINS TO FLOOD INTO THE REGION.

RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ALONG THE WARM FRONT RIGHT
NOW NORTH OF BURLINGTON IOWA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THOSE SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST...BUT NOT BUYING INTO THAT THEORY AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN LARGE.  GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE.  STILL CONCERNED ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD
HAVE AMPLE FORCING FROM THE FRONT...LOW...AND IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.   AS SUCH HAVE A BAND OF LOW END CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP OUT OF ANY GIVEN
SHOWER...EXCEPT FOR OVER NW INDIANA.  FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AND MAY
SEE UPWARDS OF 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN.  STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT...BUT MORE THAN THE REST OF THE CWA.

TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL IL AND TO AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS NW INDIANA TONIGHT.  TEMPS REBOUND A LITTLE SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S DOWN SOUTH.  EXPECTING THE
MORNING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING AS FLOW
TURNS OFF OF THE LAKE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE
PLAINS...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW SITUATION. RIGHT
NOW NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY THE SET UP AS DELTA TS ARE MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT THE MODELED WIND FIELDS SHOW GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER THE
LAKE.  THE LOCAL ARW IS ALREADY INDICATING A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  KEPT
THE POPS A BIT MORE BROAD AT THIS POINT WITH MAX POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE.  HAVE THE BAND STARTING OVER NW INDIANA...SHIFTING EAST TO
NEAR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN IL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN
SHIFTING BACK ACROSS NW INDIANA AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

ONCE AGAIN DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN IF THE SNOW WILL HAPPEN AND
WHERE IT WILL FALL...KEPT PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT. HAVE LESS THAN HALF
INCH JUST ALONG THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPS...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID
20S.  SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND ROTATES EAST
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY EVENING.  ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE CWA TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THERE IS BRIEF RIDGING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND/OR
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY MORNING.  HAVE SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.  ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
BE TALKING ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK
DECENT.  TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS SOUNDINGS...THE ONLY ISSUE I
SEE IS A SHRINKING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE EVENT GOES ON.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW LATE NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS IS
MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK.  THIS OF COURSE WILL PLAY A
ROLL IN PRECIP TYPES...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE PRECIP
OVER THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
RISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRECIP TYPES LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOWS PATH AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE TEMPS.  FOR NOW USED THE
FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS TO CREATE THE WEATHER GRIDS.

JEE

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* SE WINDS OF 110-140 DEG WILL VEER 190-240 DEG ARND 21Z. SPEEDS
  WILL HOVER ARND 10-13KT THEN WITH VEERING WINDS INCREASE WITH
  GUSTS NEARING 20-22KT.

* POSSIBLY SPRINKLES IN FAR NE ILLINOIS BETWEEN 01-04Z.

* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFT 04Z THROUGH DAYBREAK SAT.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH VFR CONDS PREVAILING
AT ALL ARIFIELDS. WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE...THIS
HAS HELPED TO TURN WINDS ALONG THE ILLINOIS LAKESHORE TO MORE OF A
080-100 DEG RANGE WITH A WEAK LAKE BREEZE. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MAKING MUCH OF A PUSH TOWARDS MDW/ORD AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECT
WINDS AT THOSE TAF SITES TO REMAIN 120-140 DEG. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS STEADILY LIFTING NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TAF SITES ARND 21-22Z...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS QUICKLY VEERING
TO 190-240 DEG. IN ADDITION BETTER MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE AND
RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO ARND 5KFT AGL. STILL VFR CONDS. A FEW
HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING SOME SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-04Z ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN...HOWEVER WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE NEAR SFC...THIS MAY END UP BEING VIRGA
OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. SO HAVE HELD MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF
CURRENT TAFS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SAT. IN ADDITION COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME HAVE
ONLY BROUGHT CIGS DOWN TO 3KFT AGL SAT MID-MORNING. CIGS SHUD
RETURN TO VFR CONDS BY EARLY SAT AFTN. ANOTHER CHALLENGE FOR SAT
IS THAT WINDS MAY FLOP OVER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTN HOURS. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS NE WINDS WILL ONLY OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE...SO WILL MAINTAIN NW WINDS AT ORD/MDW.

BEACHLER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH 4Z SAT.

* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST AFT 4Z SAT.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE ORD/MDW WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.

SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN AND SUB VFR...OTHERWISE VFR.

MONDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

TUESDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY...CHANCE -RA AND SUB VFR.

RC

&&

.MARINE...
437 AM CDT

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY FRIDAY BUT THEN NEW LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE
SHAPE FARTHER SOUTH OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME PRIMARY
LOW. THIS WILL THEN TRACK OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
START OUT SOUTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE LAKE...BUT THEN AS LOW
APPROACHES...WINDS WILL BACK MORE EASTERLY NORTH OF THE LOW PATH.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE LAKE. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE BY MID
EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THEN NORTH FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. EXPECTING FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KT
OVER THE SOUTH OPEN WATERS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN EASING ON SATURDAY.

AFTER A PERIOD OF STEADY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
TOPPING OUT AT 15 TO 20 KT INTO SUNDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE IN
STORE UNTIL THE NEXT WEAK LOW/COLD FRONT AND SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR BRING STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BACK FOR A TIME
ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES MID WEEK AND WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...THIS WILL SET UP A PERIOD OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...THE TRACK OF THE LOW TODAY WILL
DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY WESTERLY WINDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING. A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF THE STRONGER WINDS TO MID TO LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO
SEE IF WAVES BUILD MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR INDIANA
NEARSHORE ZONES.

RC

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
     LMZ745...9 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 102 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
915 PM CDT

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF TONIGHT. WE STILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SIMILAR MINIMUM TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER TO MID LEVEL JET MAXIMUM IS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE AREA
THIS EVE AND THIS HAS BEGUN TO INTRODUCE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS
WELL AS STRENGTHENING ASCENT. THE WARM FRONT IN THE LOWER LEVELS
IS WELL DEFINED AT 850MB...WITH A 6C DIFFERENCE THIS EVE BETWEEN
THE 00Z RAOBS AT ILX AND DVN AS WELL AS VEERING WINDS BETWEEN THE
TWO...INDICATING THE PLACEMENT OF THE 850MB WARM FRONT BASICALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-45 KT IS
POINTED INTO THIS AREA AS SEEN ON VAD WIND PROFILES...BUT THIS IS
STRUGGLING TO STEER IN MUCH MOISTURE THANKS TO DRY SOURCE REGION
AIR ACROSS MO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...THERE HAVE
BEEN A BLOSSOMING OF 8-12K FT CIGS AND RADAR ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL
IL. THE RESIDUAL DRY AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE HAS KEPT MUCH
OF THIS FROM REACHING THE GROUND THROUGH 900 PM.

WITH THE IMPROVING FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVERRIDING THE
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...GRADUAL SATURATION AND LOWERING
OF CLOUD BASES SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD OCCUR...ENOUGH SO FOR SOME
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP TO PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND. BELIEVE THAT THE
PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH MUCH FURTHER NORTH BASED ON THE DRY
AIR AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST ASCENT. LIGHT PRECIP STILL
COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE CENTRAL CWA FOLLOWING THE
TOP DOWN WET-BULB PROFILES FROM THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW
SOUNDINGS...WHICH SEEM ON PAR THERMALLY WITH THE DVN SOUNDING. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES DID DROP QUICKLY THIS EVE IN NORTHERN AREAS INCLUDING
CHICAGOLAND THANKS TO CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH A LAKE
BREEZE THAT HAD PUSHED THROUGH PARTS OF CHICAGO. TEMPS SHOULD
STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND EVEN MAY INCH
UPWARD WITH THE SURFACE WIND SPEED STARTING TO COME UP. IF PRECIP
WERE TO EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP...BUT RIGHT NOW THAT CHANCE
IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

MTF

//PREV DISCUSSION...
333 PM CDT

DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE SUN ANGLE IS CROSSING THE EQUATOR SIGNALLY
THE SPRING EQUINOX...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HAS SOMETHING ELSE IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE A WEAK CLIPPER DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NRN MN BY FRIDAY MORNING.  THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE.  BY FRIDAY MORNING...AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE DEFINED...LAYING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA.  SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE
ECMWF AND AND GEM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...NORTH OF THE
SFC WARM FRONT IN A ZONE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.  SINCE THE AREA
HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM DIRECT FLOW OFF OF THE GLFMEX...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER AND ANY ASSOCIATED PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PCPN TYPE.  BASED ON
THERMAL PROFILES...IN PARTICULAR FROM THE HIGH RES LOCAL WRF...THE
PCPN SHOULD INITIALLY START AS RAIN SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL BE A
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP WARM LAYER FROM THE SFC.  AS THE COLUMN COOLS
OVERNIGHT AND THE SFC COOLS EVEN FASTER UNDER CLEARING SKIES...THERE
SHOULD BE A SHALLOW LAYER WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN
SUB-FREEZING AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.  AS THE SFC FREEZING LAYER
INCREASES WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATE THAT NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION TO A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN/SLEET TO SNOW/SLEET
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SLOW DURG THE PREDAWN HOURS.  THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE PCPN REMAIN ALL LIQUID AS
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THE MAIN
COMPLICATION IS THE TRANSITION FROM RA/IP TO IP/SN FOR A CORRIDOR
GENERALLY BTWN I-80 AND I-88...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING...DURATION AND AREAL EXTEND OF MIXED PCPN OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY IS SETTING UP TO BE A TEASE OF SOME SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS AS
THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH WHILE WHILE THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE
CLIPPER TRACKS ACROSS CNTRL WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY
EVENING.  THE DEGREE OF WARMING TOMORROW WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK EWD...BUT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS TRACKING THE SYSTEM ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE PERIOD OF STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE LONG ENOUGH
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER ALL
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER.  BUT EVEN THERE...THE GOING FORECAST HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE AND TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST OF MIDDLE 50S.  THE OTHER CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRAILING FROM THE SFC LOW.  THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING
RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.
HAVE BUMPED UP QPF AND POPS OVER WHAT THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST IN
DEFERENCE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT 12 HOURS OF OPEN GLFMEX...WHICH WILL ALLOW
A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO...WHILE CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR MEASURABLE
PCPN...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION IS NOT QUITE SO HIGH.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF TEASE OF
SPRING WILL COME TO A QUICK END AND THE AREA WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO
WINTER.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET
UP A LENGTHY PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY.  SUNDAY SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGIONS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

FOR THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PCPN.  THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS FOR INCREASING AMPLITUDE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA...CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  THIS WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.  THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING THE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PCPN...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN EXACT TIMING
AND TRACKS...HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF MODEST HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
OVER THE CNTRL CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO A SLOW...STEADY WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY RISE FROM HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ON MONDAY
TO MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50F BY THURSDAY.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM EAST/ESE TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

* POTENTIAL FOR LOW-MID MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING.

RC

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS WITH WINDS...PARTICULARLY AT ORD/MDW
TODAY. SURFACE WARM FRONT IS DRAPED WELL SOUTH ACROSS DOWNSTATE
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE AREA COULD BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS/POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET
SNOW TO MDW/GYY FROM NOW TIL 9-10Z.

PRIMARY SURFACE LOW UP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK TOWARD NW
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...DRAWING WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. AT THE
SAME TIME...MOST GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED ON IDEA OF SECONDARY LOW
FARTHER SOUTH TAKING OVER AND TRACKING OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL BE
INTEGRAL AS TO HOW LONG WARM FRONT TAKES TO LIFT NORTH AND THUS
DURATION OF EAST-ESE WINDS AT ORD/MDW...WITH LAKE INFLUENCE
EXPECTED TO TURN WINDS MORE EASTERLY FOR A TIME UNTIL WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN NEVER BRINGS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO ORD DUE TO FARTHER SOUTH LOW TRACK. INLAND AREAS SHOULD
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. FINALLY...A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON
THRU EARLY EVENING CAUSING SHIFT TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD FOCUS PRECIP CHANCES WITH SYSTEM
MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS...SO KEPT THE TAFS DRY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GYY HAS A SLIGHTLY BETTER BUT STILL LOW CHANCE OF
SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN
DURING THE EVENING...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW-MID RANGE MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP.

RC


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...LOW IN TIMING OF WIND
  SHIFT FROM EAST-EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

* LOW IN MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING.

RC

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CHC SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...

243 PM...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED
FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. WHILE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS
INCREASED...IT STILL REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THUS...
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTH...WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND RAPIDLY CHANGING
WIND DIRECTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN WEST/NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 202 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST OF AREA. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

BANDED MIXED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TOWARD EVENING AND TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS THIS CYCLE.

ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS
INDUCED AXIS OF MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. RAP SHORT TERM PROGS SUPPORT RADAR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT AND
A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BANDING OVER PAST FEW HOURS FROM FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. LIMITING FACTOR TO PRECIP RATES TO
THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...AND
PERHAPS SOME LESS THAN IDEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ATOP
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. RAP/NAM CROSS SECTIONS DO DEPICT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY (NEGATIVE EPV) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRENGTHENING
FRONTAL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
SATURATION/INSTABILITY/FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO VERY NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET IS SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY IN
NATURE AND EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TOWARD 12Z. RAP 700 HPA F VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS APPEAR TO SHOW A
STRONG CORRELATION TO PLACEMENT OF CURRENT BAND AND HAVE GENERALLY
UTILIZED EVOLUTION OF THIS FORCING AS A FIRST GUESS AS TO FORECAST
TRENDS THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING CLOSER TO 12Z. COMPETING EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL
WAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER HAVE CREATED A
TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF PTYPE...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS TREND IN UTILIZING THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR AS AN APPROXIMATE
DELINEATION BETWEEN RA/SN AND SN. GIVEN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WET BULBS
AND AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY NATURE OF FORCING MECHANISMS THIS
MORNING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS
TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME EVIDENCE IN RADAR TRENDS OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...SO HESITANT
TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THIS MENTION. MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE WAS TO REMOVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE CPD`S RAPIDLY RISE THIS MORNING AND WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT AS SUPPORTIVE OF ACCUMS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH MAIN FOCUS
SHIFTING TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND PRECIP
CHANCES. NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
MID MS RVR VALLEY WILL LIMIT WARM SECTOR MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH
THIS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD GET
DRAWN NORTHWARD AND POOLED ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE THIS
HANDLED AND ONLY MINOR CHANGE WAS TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
POPS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN INITIAL DRY SOUTHERLY FEED.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANTICIPATED IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MAIN VORT TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT WHICH
COULD EVEN ALLOW AN ISOLD TSRA TO DEVELOP BUT VERY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE ARGUES FOR LEAVING THIS MENTION OUT OF ZFP FOR
NOW. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH SOME INDICATIONS IN LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT COULD
LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT. WARMEST TEMPS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BE MORE FIRMLY IN WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. PRECIP TO EXIT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR EASTERN NOAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PERSISTS...AND
EVEN AMPLIFIES...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY`S BRIEF STINT NEAR 60F.
HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE DATE AND VERY COLD WINTER BUT LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE WEEKEND
FORECAST. CAA WILL BE RAMPING UP BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW BUT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
TO DROP ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE A LAKE RESPONSE THIS FAR SOUTH. MAY BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW TO SUPPORT VERY
LIGHT PRECIP BUT EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE. 850MB TEMPS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER NEGATIVE TEENS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT STILL SOME DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS
REGARDING DEGREE OF VEERING IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DURING THIS
TIME. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING NORTHWEST BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL THETA-E/INSTABILITY FIELDS WARRANT CONTINUED
LOW CHANCE POPS. ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD ALLOW SATURDAY`S HIGHS TO
APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY FAIL TO REACH
THE MID 30S GIVEN 925MB TEMPS AROUND -8C. REDUCED ALBEDO FROM
LARGELY MELTED SNOWPACK AND STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE AN EFFECT BUT STILL DONT EXPECT HIGHS MUCH ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED CVA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW BUT
MOISTURE RETURN IS NEGLIGIBLE AND FORCING RATHER BROAD/WEAK OVER OUR
REGION. LOWER END CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MODERATE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE EITHER SIDE OF THE
MI/OH/IN STATE LINE. MODELS STILL VARY ON BREAKOUT OF PRECIP WITH
STEADIER PRECIP MORE LIKELY AT KSBN THAN KFWA. HOWEVER AT THIS
POINT HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO GROUPS AND JUST ADJUSTED ONSET A BIT
WITH CONTINUED SLOWER TRENDS.

LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN POST FRONTAL BUT DON`T LOOK TO GET TOO OUT
OF HAND AS DRIER AIR WILL BE TRYING TO WORK IN ALREADY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...FISHER


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 111 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST OF AREA. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

BANDED MIXED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TOWARD EVENING AND TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS THIS CYCLE.

ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS
INDUCED AXIS OF MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. RAP SHORT TERM PROGS SUPPORT RADAR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT AND
A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BANDING OVER PAST FEW HOURS FROM FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. LIMITING FACTOR TO PRECIP RATES TO
THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...AND
PERHAPS SOME LESS THAN IDEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ATOP
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. RAP/NAM CROSS SECTIONS DO DEPICT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY (NEGATIVE EPV) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRENGTHENING
FRONTAL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
SATURATION/INSTABILITY/FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO VERY NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET IS SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY IN
NATURE AND EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TOWARD 12Z. RAP 700 HPA F VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS APPEAR TO SHOW A
STRONG CORRELATION TO PLACEMENT OF CURRENT BAND AND HAVE GENERALLY
UTILIZED EVOLUTION OF THIS FORCING AS A FIRST GUESS AS TO FORECAST
TRENDS THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING CLOSER TO 12Z. COMPETING EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL
WAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER HAVE CREATED A
TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF PTYPE...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS TREND IN UTILIZING THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR AS AN APPROXIMATE
DELINEATION BETWEEN RA/SN AND SN. GIVEN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WET BULBS
AND AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY NATURE OF FORCING MECHANISMS THIS
MORNING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS
TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME EVIDENCE IN RADAR TRENDS OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...SO HESITANT
TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THIS MENTION. MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE WAS TO REMOVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE CPD`S RAPIDLY RISE THIS MORNING AND WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT AS SUPPORTIVE OF ACCUMS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH MAIN FOCUS
SHIFTING TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND PRECIP
CHANCES. NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
MID MS RVR VALLEY WILL LIMIT WARM SECTOR MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH
THIS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD GET
DRAWN NORTHWARD AND POOLED ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE THIS
HANDLED AND ONLY MINOR CHANGE WAS TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
POPS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN INITIAL DRY SOUTHERLY FEED.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANTICIPATED IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MAIN VORT TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT WHICH
COULD EVEN ALLOW AN ISOLD TSRA TO DEVELOP BUT VERY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE ARGUES FOR LEAVING THIS MENTION OUT OF ZFP FOR
NOW. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH SOME INDICATIONS IN LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT COULD
LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT. WARMEST TEMPS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BE MORE FIRMLY IN WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. PRECIP TO EXIT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR EASTERN NOAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PERSISTS...AND
EVEN AMPLIFIES...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY`S BRIEF STINT NEAR 60F.
HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE DATE AND VERY COLD WINTER BUT LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE WEEKEND
FORECAST. CAA WILL BE RAMPING UP BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW BUT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
TO DROP ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE A LAKE RESPONSE THIS FAR SOUTH. MAY BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW TO SUPPORT VERY
LIGHT PRECIP BUT EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE. 850MB TEMPS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER NEGATIVE TEENS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT STILL SOME DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS
REGARDING DEGREE OF VEERING IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DURING THIS
TIME. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING NORTHWEST BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL THETA-E/INSTABILITY FIELDS WARRANT CONTINUED
LOW CHANCE POPS. ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD ALLOW SATURDAY`S HIGHS TO
APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY FAIL TO REACH
THE MID 30S GIVEN 925MB TEMPS AROUND -8C. REDUCED ALBEDO FROM
LARGELY MELTED SNOWPACK AND STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE AN EFFECT BUT STILL DONT EXPECT HIGHS MUCH ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED CVA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW BUT
MOISTURE RETURN IS NEGLIGIBLE AND FORCING RATHER BROAD/WEAK OVER OUR
REGION. LOWER END CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MODERATE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST
OF THESE WAVES IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE LED
TO AN AREA OF BANDED SNOW OVERNIGHT WHICH IS NOW BEGINNING TO PUSH
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO NEXT UPSTREAM
WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST FORCING
WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE OF
INTEREST TONIGHT. SFC WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS TO
SOUTH WITH SOME INCREASE IN GUSTINESS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT KFWA. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED TO RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ALONG AND JUST PRECEDING THE
FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY TEMPO -SHRA MENTION TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 646 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
AREA TONIGHT. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...TO
THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BRING
A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL POUR BACK
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

BANDED MIXED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TOWARD EVENING AND TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS THIS CYCLE.

ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS
INDUCED AXIS OF MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. RAP SHORT TERM PROGS SUPPORT RADAR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT AND
A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BANDING OVER PAST FEW HOURS FROM FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. LIMITING FACTOR TO PRECIP RATES TO
THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...AND
PERHAPS SOME LESS THAN IDEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ATOP
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. RAP/NAM CROSS SECTIONS DO DEPICT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY (NEGATIVE EPV) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRENGTHENING
FRONTAL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
SATURATION/INSTABILITY/FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO VERY NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET IS SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY IN
NATURE AND EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TOWARD 12Z. RAP 700 HPA F VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS APPEAR TO SHOW A
STRONG CORRELATION TO PLACEMENT OF CURRENT BAND AND HAVE GENERALLY
UTILIZED EVOLUTION OF THIS FORCING AS A FIRST GUESS AS TO FORECAST
TRENDS THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING CLOSER TO 12Z. COMPETING EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL
WAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER HAVE CREATED A
TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF PTYPE...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS TREND IN UTILIZING THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR AS AN APPROXIMATE
DELINEATION BETWEEN RA/SN AND SN. GIVEN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WET BULBS
AND AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY NATURE OF FORCING MECHANISMS THIS
MORNING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS
TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME EVIDENCE IN RADAR TRENDS OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...SO HESITANT
TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THIS MENTION. MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE WAS TO REMOVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE CPD`S RAPIDLY RISE THIS MORNING AND WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT AS SUPPORTIVE OF ACCUMS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH MAIN FOCUS
SHIFTING TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND PRECIP
CHANCES. NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
MID MS RVR VALLEY WILL LIMIT WARM SECTOR MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH
THIS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD GET
DRAWN NORTHWARD AND POOLED ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE THIS
HANDLED AND ONLY MINOR CHANGE WAS TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
POPS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN INITIAL DRY SOUTHERLY FEED.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANTICIPATED IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MAIN VORT TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT WHICH
COULD EVEN ALLOW AN ISOLD TSRA TO DEVELOP BUT VERY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE ARGUES FOR LEAVING THIS MENTION OUT OF ZFP FOR
NOW. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH SOME INDICATIONS IN LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT COULD
LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT. WARMEST TEMPS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BE MORE FIRMLY IN WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. PRECIP TO EXIT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR EASTERN NOAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PERSISTS...AND
EVEN AMPLIFIES...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY`S BRIEF STINT NEAR 60F.
HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE DATE AND VERY COLD WINTER BUT LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE WEEKEND
FORECAST. CAA WILL BE RAMPING UP BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW BUT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
TO DROP ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE A LAKE RESPONSE THIS FAR SOUTH. MAY BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW TO SUPPORT VERY
LIGHT PRECIP BUT EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE. 850MB TEMPS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER NEGATIVE TEENS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT STILL SOME DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS
REGARDING DEGREE OF VEERING IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DURING THIS
TIME. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING NORTHWEST BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL THETA-E/INSTABILITY FIELDS WARRANT CONTINUED
LOW CHANCE POPS. ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD ALLOW SATURDAY`S HIGHS TO
APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY FAIL TO REACH
THE MID 30S GIVEN 925MB TEMPS AROUND -8C. REDUCED ALBEDO FROM
LARGELY MELTED SNOWPACK AND STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE AN EFFECT BUT STILL DONT EXPECT HIGHS MUCH ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED CVA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW BUT
MOISTURE RETURN IS NEGLIGIBLE AND FORCING RATHER BROAD/WEAK OVER OUR
REGION. LOWER END CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MODERATE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST
OF THESE WAVES IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE LED
TO AN AREA OF BANDED SNOW OVERNIGHT WHICH IS NOW BEGINNING TO PUSH
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO NEXT UPSTREAM
WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST FORCING
WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE OF
INTEREST TONIGHT. SFC WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS TO
SOUTH WITH SOME INCREASE IN GUSTINESS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT KFWA. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED TO RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ALONG AND JUST PRECEDING THE
FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY TEMPO -SHRA MENTION TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 415 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
AREA TONIGHT. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...TO
THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BRING
A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL POUR BACK
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

BANDED MIXED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TOWARD EVENING AND TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS THIS CYCLE.

ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS
INDUCED AXIS OF MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. RAP SHORT TERM PROGS SUPPORT RADAR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT AND
A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BANDING OVER PAST FEW HOURS FROM FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. LIMITING FACTOR TO PRECIP RATES TO
THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...AND
PERHAPS SOME LESS THAN IDEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ATOP
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. RAP/NAM CROSS SECTIONS DO DEPICT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY (NEGATIVE EPV) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRENGTHENING
FRONTAL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
SATURATION/INSTABILITY/FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO VERY NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET IS SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY IN
NATURE AND EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TOWARD 12Z. RAP 700 HPA F VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS APPEAR TO SHOW A
STRONG CORRELATION TO PLACEMENT OF CURRENT BAND AND HAVE GENERALLY
UTILIZED EVOLUTION OF THIS FORCING AS A FIRST GUESS AS TO FORECAST
TRENDS THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING CLOSER TO 12Z. COMPETING EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL
WAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER HAVE CREATED A
TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF PTYPE...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS TREND IN UTILIZING THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR AS AN APPROXIMATE
DELINEATION BETWEEN RA/SN AND SN. GIVEN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WET BULBS
AND AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY NATURE OF FORCING MECHANISMS THIS
MORNING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS
TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME EVIDENCE IN RADAR TRENDS OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...SO HESITANT
TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THIS MENTION. MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE WAS TO REMOVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE CPD`S RAPIDLY RISE THIS MORNING AND WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT AS SUPPORTIVE OF ACCUMS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH MAIN FOCUS
SHIFTING TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND PRECIP
CHANCES. NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
MID MS RVR VALLEY WILL LIMIT WARM SECTOR MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH
THIS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD GET
DRAWN NORTHWARD AND POOLED ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE THIS
HANDLED AND ONLY MINOR CHANGE WAS TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
POPS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN INITIAL DRY SOUTHERLY FEED.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANTICIPATED IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MAIN VORT TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT WHICH
COULD EVEN ALLOW AN ISOLD TSRA TO DEVELOP BUT VERY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE ARGUES FOR LEAVING THIS MENTION OUT OF ZFP FOR
NOW. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH SOME INDICATIONS IN LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT COULD
LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT. WARMEST TEMPS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BE MORE FIRMLY IN WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. PRECIP TO EXIT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR EASTERN NOAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PERSISTS...AND
EVEN AMPLIFIES...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY`S BRIEF STINT NEAR 60F.
HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE DATE AND VERY COLD WINTER BUT LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE WEEKEND
FORECAST. CAA WILL BE RAMPING UP BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW BUT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
TO DROP ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE A LAKE RESPONSE THIS FAR SOUTH. MAY BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW TO SUPPORT VERY
LIGHT PRECIP BUT EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE. 850MB TEMPS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER NEGATIVE TEENS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT STILL SOME DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS
REGARDING DEGREE OF VEERING IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DURING THIS
TIME. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING NORTHWEST BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL THETA-E/INSTABILITY FIELDS WARRANT CONTINUED
LOW CHANCE POPS. ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD ALLOW SATURDAY`S HIGHS TO
APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY FAIL TO REACH
THE MID 30S GIVEN 925MB TEMPS AROUND -8C. REDUCED ALBEDO FROM
LARGELY MELTED SNOWPACK AND STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE AN EFFECT BUT STILL DONT EXPECT HIGHS MUCH ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED CVA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW BUT
MOISTURE RETURN IS NEGLIGIBLE AND FORCING RATHER BROAD/WEAK OVER OUR
REGION. LOWER END CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MODERATE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN LOW LEVEL FRONT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA OVER NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTURE POOLING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD TEND TO ORGANIZE BANDING A BIT BETTER AS MAIN FORCING
SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...MAY NEED
TO ADD SOME PRECIP IN FUTURE AMENDMENTS AT KSBN WHICH MAY BE
LOCATED AT NORTHERN FRINGE OF PRECIP SHIELD. PROFILES FOR BOTH
KSBN AND KFWA COULD SUPPORT EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW AND
HAVE MAINTAINED MIXED NATURE AT KSBN FROM PREVIOUS TAFS WITH TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS. DEPENDING ON WHERE FRONTOGENESIS AXIS SETS UP AND
DETAILS IN THERMAL PROFILES...A NARROW AXIS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE...WITH PERHAPS BEST CHANCE OF THIS ACCUMULATION
SITUATED SOUTH OF KSBN AND NORTH OF KFWA. PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST OHIO TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. NEXT FAST MOVING
SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS MONTANA WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PROVIDING FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN SHOULD MAKE FOR
A FAIRLY SHORT 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY
LATE NIGHT. SOME POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BUT WILL ADD
MORE RESOLUTION TO THE FORECAST IN THIS REGARD IN FUTURE FORECAST
CYCLES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 656 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

An upper level trough will move east across the northern plains and
upper Midwest Today. This will cause a cold front across central NE
early this morning to move southward across the CWA during the
morning hours. The front will go through dry without much in the way
of cloud cover. The BKN Cirrus overcast across the southern half of
the CWA should shift southward through the afternoon hours.

Highs Today will be about 10 degrees cooler than Thursday`s highs,
with highs in the lower to mid 60s. north winds will increase to 15
to 20 MPH with gusts of 30 MPH by afternoon.

High and mid level clouds will increase through the night as the
north winds diminish after sunset. Overnight lows will range from
the upper 20s to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

The Strong Canadian high pressure system over the northern plains
will continue to filter unseasonably cold air into the cwa through
the weekend and into the first part of next week. Highs Saturday
through next Tuesday will commonly be in the 40s...although some
readings in the upper 30s are expected near and north of I 70 with
lows in the 20s.

At this time...think the precip Saturday and Sunday will remain
west and south of the county warning area (cwa). However...with
the approach and passage of the next northwest flow shortwave
trough late Sunday night into Monday...increasing warm air
advection....isentropic lift/frontogenetical forcing to the
northwest of the cwa will spread/develop southeastward into the
cwa through the day Monday...exiting the far eastern cwa by late
afternoon. Will leave Sunday night dry...but light snow may not be
too far to the north of the Nebraska border by sunrise Monday
morning. Forecast soundings continue to trend colder...especially
across the northeast corner of the cwa and a little warmer further
south and westward. Will therefore carry precip type as all snow
across the northeast corner and a rain/snow mix elsewhere. Could
see a brief minor accumulation (less than an inch) in the far
northeast if temperatures remain cold enough through
midday...otherwise the snow could melt as it falls if readings are
able to recover into the middle and upper 30s. Elsewhere...no
accumulation of snow is expected at this time and precip should
end before evening. The coldest morning should be Wednesday where
the combination of light east winds and clear skies with the cold
air in place should result in lows from the upper teens to middle
20s. A return to a more zonal flow aloft and the approach of a
shortwave trough by mid week will result in moderating temperatures
into the 50s and 60s by Wednesday and Thursday along with a chance
for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

VFR condition will prevail through the next 24 hours. Moderate
low-level wind shear was noted at the terminals this morning and
will continue through the mid morning hours. A cold front will
switch winds to the north at 12 to 15 KTS with gusts of 20 to 25
KTS. The winds will subside this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

North winds will increase behind the surface cold front this
afternoon. Expect north winds to increase to 15 to 20 MPH with gusts
to 30 MPH by afternoon. The NAM and RUC models show deep mixing to
800MB across the central and western portions of the CWA. The deep
mixing should cause minimum relative humidities to drop to 17 to 20
percent across the western half of the CWA during the afternoon. A
combination of low RH`s, wind gusts above 25 MPH and dry fuels will
create extreme fire danger conditions along and west of a
Marysville, to Westmoreland, to Junction City, to Council Grove
line. Therefore a Red Flag Warning will be issued for the area with
extrema fire danger.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ008>010-020>023-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Gargan
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 335 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

An upper level trough will move east across the northern plains and
upper Midwest Today. This will cause a cold front across central NE
early this morning to move southward across the CWA during the
morning hours. The front will go through dry without much in the way
of cloud cover. The BKN Cirrus overcast across the southern half of
the CWA should shift southward through the afternoon hours.

Highs Today will be about 10 degrees cooler than Thursday`s highs,
with highs in the lower to mid 60s. north winds will increase to 15
to 20 MPH with gusts of 30 MPH by afternoon.

High and mid level clouds will increase through the night as the
north winds diminish after sunset. Overnight lows will range from
the upper 20s to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

The Strong Canadian high pressure system over the northern plains
will continue to filter unseasonably cold air into the cwa through
the weekend and into the first part of next week. Highs Saturday
through next Tuesday will commonly be in the 40s...although some
readings in the upper 30s are expected near and north of I 70 with
lows in the 20s.

At this time...think the precip Saturday and Sunday will remain
west and south of the county warning area (cwa). However...with
the approach and passage of the next northwest flow shortwave
trough late Sunday night into Monday...increasing warm air
advection....isentropic lift/frontogenetical forcing to the
northwest of the cwa will spread/develop southeastward into the
cwa through the day Monday...exiting the far eastern cwa by late
afternoon. Will leave Sunday night dry...but light snow may not be
too far to the north of the Nebraska border by sunrise Monday
morning. Forecast soundings continue to trend colder...especially
across the northeast corner of the cwa and a little warmer further
south and westward. Will therefore carry precip type as all snow
across the northeast corner and a rain/snow mix elsewhere. Could
see a brief minor accumulation (less than an inch) in the far
northeast if temperatures remain cold enough through
midday...otherwise the snow could melt as it falls if readings are
able to recover into the middle and upper 30s. Elsewhere...no
accumulation of snow is expected at this time and precip should
end before evening. The coldest morning should be Wednesday where
the combination of light east winds and clear skies with the cold
air in place should result in lows from the upper teens to middle
20s. A return to a more zonal flow aloft and the approach of a
shortwave trough by mid week will result in moderating temperatures
into the 50s and 60s by Wednesday and Thursday along with a chance
for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

VFR conditions to continue through the period. A frontal boundary
will move through the terminals in the 14Z-16Z time period. Winds
will increase through 18Z from the north at speeds near 16 kts
with gusts to near 26 kts. The winds will gradually decrease after
00Z with north winds under 10 mph by 02Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

North winds will increase behind the surface cold front this
afternoon. Expect north winds to increase to 15 to 20 MPH with gusts
to 30 MPH by afternoon. The NAM and RUC models show deep mixing to
800MB across the central and western portions of the CWA. The deep
mixing should cause minimum relative humidities to drop to 17 to 20
percent across the western half of the CWA during the afternoon. A
combination of low RH`s, wind gusts above 25 MPH and dry fuels will
create extreme fire danger conditions along and west of a
Marysville, to Westmoreland, to Junction City, to Council Grove
line. Therefore a Red Flag Warning will be issued for the area with
extrema fire danger.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ008>010-020>023-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

 949 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

Forecast looking pretty good late this evening. The 00Z NAM and
latest HRRR keep any tangible precipitation just south of our
border, but latest radar trends do show some light echoes into
southeast Missouri. Not sure if those echoes are reaching the
ground or not...but the KPOF ASOS is not registering any
precipitation. Figure a few sprinkles at best out of the echoes
currently over southeast Missouri. The bottom line is that the
hourly PoP trends were left alone overnight. The 50-60% PoPs right
along the border may be too high, but the gradient will be sharp
on the north end of the precipitation shield.

Used the consensus of short term guidance to increase north winds
through the night, and also bring temperatures and dewpoints down
a bit over much of the area. The exception is over west Kentucky,
where temperatures will be slower to fall than expected. This may
be just enough to keep snow from reaching the ground, if there is
any tangible precipitation overnight. Wind chills will be in the
20s over most areas by daybreak Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

Skies have cleared as high pressure continues to build south
across the area. Next system of interest taking shape over the
southern Plains. This feature will move east tonight and may
spread light rains into the SRN 1/4 of the area overnight. Will
continue with this chance, with generally dry conditions north of
the Ohio. Models continue to vary with the northward extent, which
lends to lower confidence given we are this close to onset.
Adjustments can be made during the evening shift. Before the light
precip moves out, will carry 3 hrs or so of a light rain, light
snow mix possibility. It will not amount to anything.

Dry weather returns Sunday through Monday in the wake of the weak
mid level system, and with high pressure still making its presence
felt. The system that will affect the area Monday night is a bit
more dynamic. Will continue with our low chance PoPs area wide
Monday night and in the far east Tuesday. Will also continue with
the mix (chance of rain and snow) type wording. Not a high
confidence call here either as moisture is somewhat limited.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

High pressure will settle into the region Tuesday night...but
quickly move east during the morning/afternoon hours on Wednesday. A
nice gradient will set up over the region Wednesday night into
Thursday as a sfc low pressure system gets developed over the
Rockies. More about that later.

First off, an upper level system over northern Mexico, will
move into Texas on Wednesday afternoon. Models differ on what to do
with this feature beyond that though. The 00Z ECMWF weakens the
trough and actually takes it northwest of the region and the 12Z run
looks more like the GFS. The GFS takes it right across our region and
brings precipitation into the area as early as Wednesday night into
Thursday. Could see a stray rain shower sneak into the area by late
Wednesday night in SEMO, but think that any precip associated with
this system should be on Thursday, and be confined to the northwest
half of the area.

Meanwhile, another shortwave trough will be moving east out of the
Rockies in conjunction with the aforementioned sfc low. The low
moves into Kansas by 18Z Thursday. Differences arise with the
speed/progression of this sfc low/front...but these differences have
gotten smaller with the 12Z runs. The GFS brings the front into the
area on Friday, exiting the area Friday evening. The 00Z ECMWF was
much fast due to a strong upper level trough, and brought the front
into the area Thursday evening, exiting on Friday morning. But the
12Z shows a very similar solution to the GFS. Therefore, confidence
is higher that rain will be a good bet at least on Thursday
night/early Friday. Inserted some isolated thunderstorm as there
seems to be enough elevated instability to support it.

Pops for Friday and Saturday will be more challenging due to timing
issues with the models. Previous runs of the GFS/ECMWF indicated
high pressure building in for Friday night into Saturday providing
dry weather. However, the new 12Z ECMWF arrived with an entirely
different solution to what it had in its 00Z run, with continued
chances for precipitation until another trough pushes the front east
of the area. Will leave Friday night through Saturday night dry at
this time until better consistency arrives.

As far as temperatures, we should see a substantial rise in temps on
Wednesday as winds become southerly on the back side of the sfc
high. However, Tuesday night will be a cold one, as calm/clear
conditions provide excellent radiational cooling. Temperatures look
to get well down into the 20s Tuesday night. Therefore, even with a
stronger March sun, we may not be able to crack 50 degrees on
Wednesday despite decent warming aloft, except for maybe in SEMO. We
should reach well into the 50s on Thursday though. Highs on Friday
will be tricky due to the differences in frontal position. However,
it does not look like we will see any major cold air intrusions in
the wake of this front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

Some strato-cu tried to work south into the area. Strong mixing of dry
air has eroded the southern extent, with just a few high clouds left
across the area, with north winds generally 10 kts, a few gusts
into the teens. Mid clouds move back in tonight with the next mid
level impulse forecast to move across the area. Best chance of
light rain should be south of a KPOF-KPAH-K2I0 line. No mention just
yet in the TAFS (KPAH), given low confidence. Winds will remain
from the north around 10 kts.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 103 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

STILL A FEW CONCERNS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WET
BULB TEMPS /1KM MEAN LAYER/ HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY ARND ZERO OR BLW
ZERO ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA...WET BULB
TEMPS ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHICH HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST TWO
AREAS ACROSS WC MN AS SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THE SHRTWV ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS WX IS RATHER VIGOROUS IN THE
LATEST WV IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN ND...WITH ENHANCED CLDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE INDICATING STRONG LIFT. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
HOLDING OFF ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN PRIOR TO 1 AM...BUT LOCAL RADAR
DOES SHOW A BETTER ENHANCEMENT/INCREASE ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN IN THE
PAST HR...WHICH IS PROBABLY A GOOD INDICATION OF THE STRONGER LIFT.
CIGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING...BUT MOISTURE BLW 70H IS STILL RATHER DRY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. IT WILL TAKE A FEW HRS BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO SATURATE AND LEAD TO A BETTER CHC OF PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR BLW 70H...WILL HOLD OFF ON
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EC MN UNTIL AFT 15Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
DEPTH IS HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF MOISTURE/LIFT THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS EC MN AFT 15Z...AND ACROSS WC WI AFT 17Z.

DUE TO SFC TEMPS RISING AND THE COLDER WET BULB TEMPS /1KM MEAN
LAYER/ FREEZING RAIN IS LESS OF A POSSIBILITY ACROSS EC MN...EXCEPT
SOME OF THE LOW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN WC WI IF THESE WET BULB TEMPS
ARE WRONG. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP WET BULB TEMPS AND MOISTURE
LACKING UNTIL AFT 15Z...PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS EC MN/WC WI WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET/SNOW...POSSIBLY CHG OVER TO RAIN BY LATE
MORNING AS SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S. CENTRAL MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 30S.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WC WI DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTN...AND ACROSS THE REST OF MN BY MID TO LATE AFTN. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION BASED ON MOISTURE DEPTH. NO OTHER CHGS FOR TONIGHT AS SKIES
SLOWLY CLR. THERE IS ANOTHER CONCERN WITH WIND SPDS THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW MN DUE TO STRONG MIXING AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE MAY BE A WIND ADVISORY ISSUED IF
CONDS WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES
AS A 1030MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR ZERO
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...WHICH IS AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF MARCH.

STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS A CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD AND IA AND
THEN A PV BOOT KICKS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HAVE RETAINED THE HIGHEST POPS /ALBEIT ONLY 30-40 PERCENT/ ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WHERE FORCING IS A BIT BETTER WITH
THE CLIPPER. THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER FOR MONDAY...SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH FUTURE RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND PERSISTS AND JUSTIFIES AN
INCREASE IN POPS.

NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 20S TO YIELD A RATHER CHILLY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE NOTABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH...WITH READINGS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 35
AND 45 DEGREES. SAID TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 28.00Z GFS AND ECMWF WAS NOT
SHABBY...WITH BOTH MODELS FEATURING A LOW CIRCA 995MB. WHILE TRACK
AND PRECIP TYPE DETAILS ARE STILL QUITE VARIABLE...LARGE SCALE
AGREEMENT SUPPLIED THE CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP
WOULD STATE 0FF AS RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST
IN EXCESS OF 30KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20KTS. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AND GO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MORNING.
HOWEVER...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HEATING CUMULUS...SO
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS LATER SATURDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
NO CHANGES FROM THE GENERAL DISCUSSION. HAVE FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL GO BELOW 1700FT THIS AFTERNOON BASED
ON THE UPSTREAM OBS AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5 KT.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR AND -SN POSSIBLE. WINDS VRBL AT 05KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-047-048-
     054>057-064-065-067-073>075-082-083-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 555 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

STILL A FEW CONCERNS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WET
BULB TEMPS /1KM MEAN LAYER/ HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY ARND ZERO OR BLW
ZERO ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA...WET BULB
TEMPS ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHICH HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST TWO
AREAS ACROSS WC MN AS SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THE SHRTWV ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS WX IS RATHER VIGOROUS IN THE
LATEST WV IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN ND...WITH ENHANCED CLDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE INDICATING STRONG LIFT. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
HOLDING OFF ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN PRIOR TO 1 AM...BUT LOCAL RADAR
DOES SHOW A BETTER ENHANCEMENT/INCREASE ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN IN THE
PAST HR...WHICH IS PROBABLY A GOOD INDICATION OF THE STRONGER LIFT.
CIGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING...BUT MOISTURE BLW 70H IS STILL RATHER DRY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. IT WILL TAKE A FEW HRS BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO SATURATE AND LEAD TO A BETTER CHC OF PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR BLW 70H...WILL HOLD OFF ON
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EC MN UNTIL AFT 15Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
DEPTH IS HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF MOISTURE/LIFT THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS EC MN AFT 15Z...AND ACROSS WC WI AFT 17Z.

DUE TO SFC TEMPS RISING AND THE COLDER WET BULB TEMPS /1KM MEAN
LAYER/ FREEZING RAIN IS LESS OF A POSSIBILITY ACROSS EC MN...EXCEPT
SOME OF THE LOW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN WC WI IF THESE WET BULB TEMPS
ARE WRONG. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP WET BULB TEMPS AND MOISTURE
LACKING UNTIL AFT 15Z...PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS EC MN/WC WI WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET/SNOW...POSSIBLY CHG OVER TO RAIN BY LATE
MORNING AS SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S. CENTRAL MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 30S.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WC WI DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTN...AND ACROSS THE REST OF MN BY MID TO LATE AFTN. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION BASED ON MOISTURE DEPTH. NO OTHER CHGS FOR TONIGHT AS SKIES
SLOWLY CLR. THERE IS ANOTHER CONCERN WITH WIND SPDS THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW MN DUE TO STRONG MIXING AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE MAY BE A WIND ADVISORY ISSUED IF
CONDS WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES
AS A 1030MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR ZERO
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...WHICH IS AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF MARCH.

STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS A CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD AND IA AND
THEN A PV BOOT KICKS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HAVE RETAINED THE HIGHEST POPS /ALBEIT ONLY 30-40 PERCENT/ ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WHERE FORCING IS A BIT BETTER WITH
THE CLIPPER. THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER FOR MONDAY...SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH FUTURE RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND PERSISTS AND JUSTIFIES AN
INCREASE IN POPS.

NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 20S TO YIELD A RATHER CHILLY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE NOTABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH...WITH READINGS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 35
AND 45 DEGREES. SAID TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 28.00Z GFS AND ECMWF WAS NOT
SHABBY...WITH BOTH MODELS FEATURING A LOW CIRCA 995MB. WHILE TRACK
AND PRECIP TYPE DETAILS ARE STILL QUITE VARIABLE...LARGE SCALE
AGREEMENT SUPPLIED THE CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP
WOULD STATE 0FF AS RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

MAIN CHGS FROM PREVIOUS TAFS WAS TO LOWER THE CHC/S OF SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS DUE TO PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NORTH OF MPX TAFS WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS
NEAR KAXN REPORTING -SN/PL OR -RA. MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG THE HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS WAS MAINLY IN
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
TIMING OF THE MVFR CIGS ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THIS
MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE NOTED IN ND WHICH SHOULD MOVE SE ACROSS
WC MN BY 15Z...AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN MN BY 18Z. 92H MOISTURE
AND CAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN.
STRONG GUSTY WNW/NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
THIS AFTN...WITH SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 KTS AT KRWF/KAXN. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFT 3Z.

KMSP...

INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF -SN AS MOST
OF THE OBS WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES HAVE ONLY REPORTED -SN. LATEST
RAP ALSO INDICATED /1KM LAYER/ WET BULB TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BLW ZERO /0C/ ACROSS EASTERN MN. SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD
BE -SN AT THE ONSET. BY MID/LATE MORNING...SFC TEMPS AND SOME
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET/RAIN. HOWEVER...BY THIS
TIME...MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
AIRPORT GROUNDS. S/SE WINDS ARND 6-8 KTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
TO THE SW/WSW BY 16-18Z...THEN MORE WNW/NW BY 19-20Z. GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ARND 20-22Z WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 28 KTS
POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFT 3Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 15-20 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5 KT.



&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-067-073>075-082-083-091-
     092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 356 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

STILL A FEW CONCERNS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WET
BULB TEMPS /1KM MEAN LAYER/ HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY ARND ZERO OR BLW
ZERO ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA...WET BULB
TEMPS ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHICH HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST TWO
AREAS ACROSS WC MN AS SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THE SHRTWV ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS WX IS RATHER VIGOROUS IN THE
LATEST WV IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN ND...WITH ENHANCED CLDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE INDICATING STRONG LIFT. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
HOLDING OFF ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN PRIOR TO 1 AM...BUT LOCAL RADAR
DOES SHOW A BETTER ENHANCEMENT/INCREASE ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN IN THE
PAST HR...WHICH IS PROBABLY A GOOD INDICATION OF THE STRONGER LIFT.
CIGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING...BUT MOISTURE BLW 70H IS STILL RATHER DRY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. IT WILL TAKE A FEW HRS BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO SATURATE AND LEAD TO A BETTER CHC OF PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR BLW 70H...WILL HOLD OFF ON
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EC MN UNTIL AFT 15Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
DEPTH IS HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF MOISTURE/LIFT THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS EC MN AFT 15Z...AND ACROSS WC WI AFT 17Z.

DUE TO SFC TEMPS RISING AND THE COLDER WET BULB TEMPS /1KM MEAN
LAYER/ FREEZING RAIN IS LESS OF A POSSIBILITY ACROSS EC MN...EXCEPT
SOME OF THE LOW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN WC WI IF THESE WET BULB TEMPS
ARE WRONG. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP WET BULB TEMPS AND MOISTURE
LACKING UNTIL AFT 15Z...PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS EC MN/WC WI WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET/SNOW...POSSIBLY CHG OVER TO RAIN BY LATE
MORNING AS SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S. CENTRAL MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 30S.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WC WI DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTN...AND ACROSS THE REST OF MN BY MID TO LATE AFTN. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION BASED ON MOISTURE DEPTH. NO OTHER CHGS FOR TONIGHT AS SKIES
SLOWLY CLR. THERE IS ANOTHER CONCERN WITH WIND SPDS THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW MN DUE TO STRONG MIXING AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE MAY BE A WIND ADVISORY ISSUED IF
CONDS WARRANT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES
AS A 1030MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR ZERO
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...WHICH IS AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF MARCH.

STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS A CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD AND IA AND
THEN A PV BOOT KICKS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HAVE RETAINED THE HIGHEST POPS /ALBEIT ONLY 30-40 PERCENT/ ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WHERE FORCING IS A BIT BETTER WITH
THE CLIPPER. THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER FOR MONDAY...SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH FUTURE RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND PERSISTS AND JUSTIFIES AN
INCREASE IN POPS.

NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 20S TO YIELD A RATHER CHILLY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE NOTABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH...WITH READINGS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 35
AND 45 DEGREES. SAID TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 28.00Z GFS AND ECMWF WAS NOT
SHABBY...WITH BOTH MODELS FEATURING A LOW CIRCA 995MB. WHILE TRACK
AND PRECIP TYPE DETAILS ARE STILL QUITE VARIABLE...LARGE SCALE
AGREEMENT SUPPLIED THE CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP
WOULD STATE 0FF AS RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST 6 HRS IS WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH EASTERN MPX CWA. OTHER CONCERNS IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
INTENSITY. REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING HAS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NW MN...AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. CIGS
REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NW MN. LATEST RAP HAS THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
12Z FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN/KSTC BEFORE 12Z.
AFT 12Z...CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER ALONG WITH A BETTER CHC OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL MN. ALTHOUGH EARLIER TAFS HAD
FZRA/PL/RA/SN FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS...DO HAVE CONCERNS THAT
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RA/PL AT THE
ONSET...WITH MAINLY SNPL IN EASTERN MN DURING THE ONSET.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDS REMAIN MORE CONDUCIVE ON PL/SN BASED ON THE
LATEST THERMAL PROFILE. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MORNING FOR KAXN/KSTC/KRNH...THEN
SLOWLY RISING DURING THE AFTN. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE S/SE
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE W/SW BY 12Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE W/NW AND
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. GUSTS AOA
30 KTS ARE LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW MN DURING THE
AFTN.

KMSP...

MAIN CHG FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS TO HOLD OFF ON PRECIPITATION UNTIL
AFT 12Z ALONG WITH MORE SLEET/SNOW DURING THE ONSET...THEN A
MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW BEFORE ENDING. FREEZING RAIN IS ONLY A
CONCERN FOR AN HR OR TWO BEFORE 13Z...BUT ATMOSPHERIC CONDS REMAIN
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLEET/SNOW DURING THE ONSET...THEN FREEZING
RAIN. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HRS...THEN MORE VFR VSBYS...BUT MVFR
CIGS DURING THE EARLY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SE/S
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE SW BY MID MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE W/NW
BY EARLY AFTN AND INCREASING. SOME GUSTS OVER 28 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTN HRS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 15-20 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-067-073>075-082-083-091-
     092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 1231 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

THE UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF MOST
EARLY SPRING SYSTEMS...WHICH IS PTYPE ISSUES. EARLY AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
CLOUDS LINED UP WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE H850 WARM AIR
ADVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24HOURS...THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MATURE
AND SPREAD A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THAT REGION.

A WARM NOSE...AS EVIDENT BY THE +0C LINE ON THE 0-3KM MAX T
LAYER...WILL CAUSE THE SNOWFALL TO MELT INITIALLY ALOFT...WHILE
SURFACE TEMPS LINGER NEAR 30S. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF CLOSE TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE DEEP
FORCING ARRIVES...AND EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY SNOW TO
BLOSSOM ON RADAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE MORNING
COMMUTE. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35MPH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN MN. THIS COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AS FOR HEADLINES...DECIDED NOT TO DO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT/S SYSTEM AS IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY...LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS TOMORROW
WILL ALSO BE NEAR WIND ADVY CRITERIA OUT IN WRN MN...SO FUTURE
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO HOIST ONE OF THOSE IF WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS
STRONG AS THEY CURRENTLY DO...BUT WE STILL HAVE TIME BEFORE
NEEDING TO MAKE THAT DECISION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

FOR THE LONG TERM...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON
TAP FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY...WITH A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL NOT BE TO MUCH
TO WRITE HOME ABOUT WITH PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...JUST COLD UNTIL THEN.

AS FOR TRENDS WITH THE 20.12 MODEL RUNS...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR
THE WEEKEND. FOR THE LIGHT SNOW EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SNOW REMAINING
SOUTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER. FOR THE SECOND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR...WE
HAVE SEEN THE ECMWF COME IN NOT QUITE AS COLD WITH THIS PUNCH AND
ALSO HAS IT NOT LINGERING AROUND AS LONG.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND AS IT JUST LOOKS COLD...WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD STILL MAKE A RUN FOR ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NE MPX CWA...BUT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE TOUGH TO SEE
SUBZERO LOWS GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MODELS NEVER SHOW THE WINDS
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING...PLUS WE HAVE THE EVER SHRINKING LENGTH OF
NIGHTS NOW.

LOOKING AT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
AS FAR NE AS THE MN RIVER AS A CLIPPER DIVES SE ACROSS SODAK
INTO IOWA. KEPT P-TYPE WITH THIS AS ALL SNOW...AS WELL IT WILL BE
PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG WAVE AND PV ANOMALY DROPPING SOUTH OUT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER BREEZY
AND CHILLY TUESDAY.

DO NOT KNOW IF I AM COMPLETELY SOLD YET IN HOW FAST THE 20.12
ECMWF/GFS WANT TO BREAK DOWN THE WRN RIDGE AT SHIFT IT EAST NEXT
WEEK...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM SW
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. LOTS OF DISCREPANCIES ON THE DETAILS...BUT AT LEAST BOTH
MODELS SHOW A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FLOATING AROUND THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SYSTEM TRACKS...IT
COULD BE EITHER A SNOW MAKER OR RAIN MAKER...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST 6 HRS IS WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH EASTERN MPX CWA. OTHER CONCERNS IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
INTENSITY. REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING HAS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NW MN...AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. CIGS
REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NW MN. LATEST RAP HAS THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
12Z FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN/KSTC BEFORE 12Z.
AFT 12Z...CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER ALONG WITH A BETTER CHC OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL MN. ALTHOUGH EARLIER TAFS HAD
FZRA/PL/RA/SN FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS...DO HAVE CONCERNS THAT
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RA/PL AT THE
ONSET...WITH MAINLY SNPL IN EASTERN MN DURING THE ONSET.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDS REMAIN MORE CONDUCIVE ON PL/SN BASED ON THE
LATEST THERMAL PROFILE. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MORNING FOR KAXN/KSTC/KRNH...THEN
SLOWLY RISING DURING THE AFTN. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE S/SE
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE W/SW BY 12Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE W/NW AND
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. GUSTS AOA
30 KTS ARE LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW MN DURING THE
AFTN.

KMSP...

MAIN CHG FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS TO HOLD OFF ON PRECIPITATION UNTIL
AFT 12Z ALONG WITH MORE SLEET/SNOW DURING THE ONSET...THEN A
MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW BEFORE ENDING. FREEZING RAIN IS ONLY A
CONCERN FOR AN HR OR TWO BEFORE 13Z...BUT ATMOSPHERIC CONDS REMAIN
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLEET/SNOW DURING THE ONSET...THEN FREEZING
RAIN. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HRS...THEN MORE VFR VSBYS...BUT MVFR
CIGS DURING THE EARLY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SE/S
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE SW BY MID MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE W/NW
BY EARLY AFTN AND INCREASING. SOME GUSTS OVER 28 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTN HRS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 15-20 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JLT





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

 313 PM MDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. FRONTOGENESIS HAD DECREASED OVER
THE REGION PER THE RAP MODEL AND CHANNELED VORTICITY WAS MOVING
NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. BASED ON THE KBLX VAD WIND
PROFILE...WINDS WERE NE UP TO 7000 FT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
SE IN THE FLOW LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL GENERATE MORE FRONTOGENESIS
OVER THE AREA AND ENHANCE THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN NE UPSLOPE
AREAS. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS LOOKED FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF SHERIDAN COUNTY AS WELL
AS S BIG HORN COUNTY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT WITH GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH
FORECAST OVER THESE AREAS. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SLICK ROADS AGAIN...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR
MIDNIGHT MDT THROUGH 4 PM MDT SAT. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS W OF
KBIL AS WELL TONIGHT...AS MODEL QPF AMOUNTS WERE SIMILAR TO THOSE
IN KSHR. HOWEVER...TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DID NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY
THERE AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA ON SAT. FRONTOGENESIS
AND MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE
WAVE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER S
CENTRAL AND SE AREAS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BASED ON EXPECTED MIXING. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...SEEN OFF
THE COAST OF N BC ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
APPROACH THE REGION IN NW FLOW SAT NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. JET SUPPORT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUN AS
WELL. HAD SOME CHANCE POPS OVER NW AND W AREAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SAT NIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL SINK SW OVER THE AREA ON SUN AND
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. MODELS WERE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH THEIR QPF SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH THE WRF BEING
DRIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS HOLDING
ONTO THE QPF LONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR NOW...WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER NW/N CENTRAL ZONES SUN MORNING AS MODELS DID
AGREE ON THIS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. SHIFTED BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SW HALF OF THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWING THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTOGENESIS. LEFT
BROADBRUSH MAINLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT.
HIGHLIGHTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PLACES LIKE THE FOOTHILLS
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT ON SYSTEM DETAILS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR SUN. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM THANKS
TO PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT ORIGINATING ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE 12 UTC
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WELL ON THAT BASIC THEME...WITH INITIALLY COLD
AIR OF CONTINENTAL ORIGINS LINGERING MON...THEN QUICKLY EXITING BY
TUE AS TRANSIENT /BUT WELL-FORMED/ MID-LEVEL RIDGING SURGES OUT OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS GOOD
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN THIS EVOLUTION...AND SINCE THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED WITH THAT OVERALL IDEA AS
WELL...WE ELECTED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY TUE. A BIAS-
CORRECTED...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS LED THE WAY WITH THOSE CHANGES.

BY WED...MODEL SPREAD STARTS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF A
LARGER-SCALE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION WED OR
THU. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL BE ELEVATED IN THAT PERIOD...WHICH
REMAINS SUPPORTED BY MOS-BASED POPS THAT ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. WE
MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THAT WED AND THU PERIOD ONCE
GUIDANCE SETTLES IN ON COMMON TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALSO LIKELY IN THAT TIME FRAME...SO HIGHS COULD
FALL BACK A BIT AGAIN BY THU TOO. SCHULTZ

&&

.AVIATION...

A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF IFR WEATHER ARE
FROM 08 TO 16 UTC IN THE KBIL AND KSHR AREAS. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 015/026 018/036 018/036 019/048 031/047 028/045 029/049
    85/S    26/O    33/J    21/B    12/W    33/W    22/W
LVM 009/026 015/037 015/035 019/049 030/047 029/045 027/045
    63/S    27/O    53/J    31/B    13/W    33/W    32/W
HDN 015/027 017/038 017/039 018/048 029/050 027/046 028/050
    75/S    16/O    43/J    21/B    12/W    33/W    22/W
MLS 013/025 015/036 019/037 015/045 027/047 028/041 027/049
    22/S    14/O    32/J    11/B    12/W    22/W    22/W
4BQ 014/026 014/036 018/037 016/047 029/050 028/044 029/049
    56/S    14/O    42/J    11/B    12/W    33/W    22/W
BHK 010/023 011/032 017/034 011/039 022/046 026/041 024/047
    11/B    13/S    32/J    11/B    12/W    22/W    22/W
SHR 015/025 012/038 016/037 016/048 028/047 026/044 025/046
    +8/S    26/O    54/J    31/B    12/W    44/W    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4
      PM MDT SATURDAY FOR ZONE 38.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4
      PM MDT SATURDAY FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1141 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

THE SNOW HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. GETTING CLOUD STREETS WITH ASSOCIATED LIGHT FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL. TRENDED THE FORECAST TO THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ROLLA TO BELCOURTE. EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR SNOW LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING. ALSO ADDED FLURRIES NORTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

SURFACE PRESSURE BUBBLE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT
THIS TIME. RAP H1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SHOWING STRONGEST
GRADIENT MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH GETTING SOME
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH IN ROLETTE THIS MORNING...UPSTREAM OBS AND
PRESSURE RISE SUGGEST STRONGEST WINDS WILL END UP IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IS. CLEARING POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS SNOW IS NOW MOVING OUT
OF THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE ADVISORY. 09Z RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATES A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AROUND JAMESTOWN
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH TO INCLUDE JAMESTOWN...AS WELL AS
CARRINGTON AND HARVEY. PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEFT THE EXPIRATION
TIME ALONE FOR NOW BUT EXPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER AND WIND HEADLINES NOW THROUGH TODAY.

CURRENTLY...COMPACT MID LEVEL S`WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...RIGHT NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MY NORTHWEST AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FROPA AS PRESSURE RISES INCREASE AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. WARP AROUND PRECIPITATION NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER
EXPECTED...MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE RIGHT NOW. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
POPS WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED NOW THAT COLDER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE STATE. REGARDING HEADLINES...WOULD LIKE TO PULL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENTIRELY...HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST NOW
INCREASING AND SNOW STILL FALLING WITHIN THE ADVISORY...WILL
MAINTAIN AS IS FOR NOW AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AREAS OF
ADVERSE WINTER WEATHER WITH TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. FULLY EXPECT WE CAN
PULL THE ENTIRE ADVISORY BY 12 OR 15Z...POSSIBLY CONVERTING SOME
OF THE WSW TO A WIND ADVISORY.

MAIN PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING NOW THROUGH 18Z
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE RISES TAPER OFF AND GRADIENT
FORCING RELAXES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SURFACE HIGH WILL END PRECIPITATION NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH
18Z...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS
PAINT SOME PVA INCOMING FROM MONTANA.

DRY AND COLD TONIGHT WITH A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRY AIR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED NORTH...LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODERATING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS BRING A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRUSHING THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE STATE. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEPING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DRY...WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BRING MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH
THE GLOBAL GEM IN THE MIDDLE. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.

ANOTHER MODEL DIFFERENCE CROPS UP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF...DEVELOPS A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AIDED BY A STRONG JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...PRECIPITATION SPREADS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...WITH A MUCH WEAKER UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND IS DRY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS LATEST SOLUTION IS A DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUN AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ONE ADDITIONAL FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADIENT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDING DOWN A WESTERN U.S RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY BOTH THE 21 MAR 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF. A
QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS BUFR DATA INDICATES AN ELEVATED MIXING LAYER
HEIGHT MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY TAPPING INTO 30 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
EVENT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS
SASK/MANT WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY. MAIN
HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35
KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KJMS...AND SCATTERED SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. THE IFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
MOST 20Z. OTHERWISE MVFR GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 00Z.
GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-036-037-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1033 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ROLLA TO BELCOURTE. EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR SNOW LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING. ALSO ADDED FLURRIES NORTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

SURFACE PRESSURE BUBBLE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT
THIS TIME. RAP H1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SHOWING STRONGEST
GRADIENT MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH GETTING SOME
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH IN ROLETTE THIS MORNING...UPSTREAM OBS AND
PRESSURE RISE SUGGEST STRONGEST WINDS WILL END UP IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IS. CLEARING POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS SNOW IS NOW MOVING OUT
OF THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE ADVISORY. 09Z RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATES A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AROUND JAMESTOWN
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH TO INCLUDE JAMESTOWN...AS WELL AS
CARRINGTON AND HARVEY. PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEFT THE EXPIRATION
TIME ALONE FOR NOW BUT EXPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER AND WIND HEADLINES NOW THROUGH TODAY.

CURRENTLY...COMPACT MID LEVEL S`WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...RIGHT NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MY NORTHWEST AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FROPA AS PRESSURE RISES INCREASE AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. WARP AROUND PRECIPITATION NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER
EXPECTED...MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE RIGHT NOW. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
POPS WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED NOW THAT COLDER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE STATE. REGARDING HEADLINES...WOULD LIKE TO PULL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENTIRELY...HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST NOW
INCREASING AND SNOW STILL FALLING WITHIN THE ADVISORY...WILL
MAINTAIN AS IS FOR NOW AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AREAS OF
ADVERSE WINTER WEATHER WITH TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. FULLY EXPECT WE CAN
PULL THE ENTIRE ADVISORY BY 12 OR 15Z...POSSIBLY CONVERTING SOME
OF THE WSW TO A WIND ADVISORY.

MAIN PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING NOW THROUGH 18Z
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE RISES TAPER OFF AND GRADIENT
FORCING RELAXES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SURFACE HIGH WILL END PRECIPITATION NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH
18Z...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS
PAINT SOME PVA INCOMING FROM MONTANA.

DRY AND COLD TONIGHT WITH A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRY AIR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED NORTH...LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODERATING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS BRING A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRUSHING THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE STATE. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEPING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DRY...WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BRING MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH
THE GLOBAL GEM IN THE MIDDLE. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.

ANOTHER MODEL DIFFERENCE CROPS UP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF...DEVELOPS A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AIDED BY A STRONG JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...PRECIPITATION SPREADS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...WITH A MUCH WEAKER UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND IS DRY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS LATEST SOLUTION IS A DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUN AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ONE ADDITIONAL FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADIENT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDING DOWN A WESTERN U.S RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY BOTH THE 21 MAR 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF. A
QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS BUFR DATA INDICATES AN ELEVATED MIXING LAYER
HEIGHT MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY TAPPING INTO 30 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
EVENT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS
SASK/MANT WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY. MAIN
HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35
KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KJMS...AND SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
THE IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND AREAS BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR MOST AREAS AFTER 15Z THEN VFR BY 18Z. VFR AT KJMS AND KDIK
MAY BE LATER...AFTER 20Z. GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-036-037-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 942 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR SNOW LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING. ALSO ADDED FLURRIES NORTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

SURFACE PRESSURE BUBBLE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT
THIS TIME. RAP H1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SHOWING STRONGEST
GRADIENT MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH GETTING SOME
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH IN ROLETTE THIS MORNING...UPSTREAM OBS AND
PRESSURE RISE SUGGEST STRONGEST WINDS WILL END UP IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IS. CLEARING POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS SNOW IS NOW MOVING OUT
OF THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE ADVISORY. 09Z RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATES A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AROUND JAMESTOWN
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH TO INCLUDE JAMESTOWN...AS WELL AS
CARRINGTON AND HARVEY. PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEFT THE EXPIRATION
TIME ALONE FOR NOW BUT EXPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER AND WIND HEADLINES NOW THROUGH TODAY.

CURRENTLY...COMPACT MID LEVEL S`WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...RIGHT NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MY NORTHWEST AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FROPA AS PRESSURE RISES INCREASE AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. WARP AROUND PRECIPITATION NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER
EXPECTED...MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE RIGHT NOW. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
POPS WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED NOW THAT COLDER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE STATE. REGARDING HEADLINES...WOULD LIKE TO PULL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENTIRELY...HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST NOW
INCREASING AND SNOW STILL FALLING WITHIN THE ADVISORY...WILL
MAINTAIN AS IS FOR NOW AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AREAS OF
ADVERSE WINTER WEATHER WITH TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. FULLY EXPECT WE CAN
PULL THE ENTIRE ADVISORY BY 12 OR 15Z...POSSIBLY CONVERTING SOME
OF THE WSW TO A WIND ADVISORY.

MAIN PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING NOW THROUGH 18Z
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE RISES TAPER OFF AND GRADIENT
FORCING RELAXES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SURFACE HIGH WILL END PRECIPITATION NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH
18Z...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS
PAINT SOME PVA INCOMING FROM MONTANA.

DRY AND COLD TONIGHT WITH A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRY AIR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED NORTH...LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODERATING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS BRING A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRUSHING THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE STATE. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEPING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DRY...WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BRING MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH
THE GLOBAL GEM IN THE MIDDLE. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.

ANOTHER MODEL DIFFERENCE CROPS UP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF...DEVELOPS A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AIDED BY A STRONG JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...PRECIPITATION SPREADS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...WITH A MUCH WEAKER UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND IS DRY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS LATEST SOLUTION IS A DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUN AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ONE ADDITIONAL FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADIENT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDING DOWN A WESTERN U.S RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY BOTH THE 21 MAR 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF. A
QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS BUFR DATA INDICATES AN ELEVATED MIXING LAYER
HEIGHT MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY TAPPING INTO 30 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
EVENT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS
SASK/MANT WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY. MAIN
HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35
KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KJMS...AND SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
THE IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND AREAS BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR MOST AREAS AFTER 15Z THEN VFR BY 18Z. VFR AT KJMS AND KDIK
MAY BE LATER...AFTER 20Z. GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-025-037-048-
051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 842 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

SURFACE PRESSURE BUBBLE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT
THIS TIME. RAP H1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SHOWING STRONGEST
GRADIENT MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH GETTING SOME
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH IN ROLETTE THIS MORNING...UPSTREAM OBS AND
PRESSURE RISE SUGGEST STRONGEST WINDS WILL END UP IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IS. CLEARING POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS SNOW IS NOW MOVING OUT
OF THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE ADVISORY. 09Z RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATES A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AROUND JAMESTOWN
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH TO INCLUDE JAMESTOWN...AS WELL AS
CARRINGTON AND HARVEY. PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEFT THE EXPIRATION
TIME ALONE FOR NOW BUT EXPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER AND WIND HEADLINES NOW THROUGH TODAY.

CURRENTLY...COMPACT MID LEVEL S`WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...RIGHT NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MY NORTHWEST AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FROPA AS PRESSURE RISES INCREASE AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. WARP AROUND PRECIPITATION NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER
EXPECTED...MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE RIGHT NOW. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
POPS WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED NOW THAT COLDER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE STATE. REGARDING HEADLINES...WOULD LIKE TO PULL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENTIRELY...HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST NOW
INCREASING AND SNOW STILL FALLING WITHIN THE ADVISORY...WILL
MAINTAIN AS IS FOR NOW AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AREAS OF
ADVERSE WINTER WEATHER WITH TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. FULLY EXPECT WE CAN
PULL THE ENTIRE ADVISORY BY 12 OR 15Z...POSSIBLY CONVERTING SOME
OF THE WSW TO A WIND ADVISORY.

MAIN PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING NOW THROUGH 18Z
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE RISES TAPER OFF AND GRADIENT
FORCING RELAXES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SURFACE HIGH WILL END PRECIPITATION NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH
18Z...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS
PAINT SOME PVA INCOMING FROM MONTANA.

DRY AND COLD TONIGHT WITH A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRY AIR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED NORTH...LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODERATING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS BRING A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRUSHING THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE STATE. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEPING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DRY...WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BRING MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH
THE GLOBAL GEM IN THE MIDDLE. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.

ANOTHER MODEL DIFFERENCE CROPS UP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF...DEVELOPS A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AIDED BY A STRONG JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...PRECIPITATION SPREADS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...WITH A MUCH WEAKER UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND IS DRY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS LATEST SOLUTION IS A DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUN AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ONE ADDITIONAL FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADIENT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDING DOWN A WESTERN U.S RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY BOTH THE 21 MAR 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF. A
QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS BUFR DATA INDICATES AN ELEVATED MIXING LAYER
HEIGHT MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY TAPPING INTO 30 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
EVENT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 827 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS
SASK/MANT WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY. MAIN
HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35
KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KJMS...AND SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
THE IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND AREAS BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR MOST AREAS AFTER 15Z THEN VFR BY 18Z. VFR AT KJMS AND KDIK
MAY BE LATER...AFTER 20Z. GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-025-037-048-
051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 643 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS SNOW IS NOW MOVING OUT
OF THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE ADVISORY. 09Z RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATES A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AROUND JAMESTOWN
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH TO INCLUDE JAMESTOWN...AS WELL AS
CARRINGTON AND HARVEY. PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEFT THE EXPIRATION
TIME ALONE FOR NOW BUT EXPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER AND WIND HEADLINES NOW THROUGH TODAY.

CURRENTLY...COMPACT MID LEVEL S`WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...RIGHT NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MY NORTHWEST AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FROPA AS PRESSURE RISES INCREASE AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. WARP AROUND PRECIPITATION NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER
EXPECTED...MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE RIGHT NOW. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
POPS WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED NOW THAT COLDER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE STATE. REGARDING HEADLINES...WOULD LIKE TO PULL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENTIRELY...HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST NOW
INCREASING AND SNOW STILL FALLING WITHIN THE ADVISORY...WILL
MAINTAIN AS IS FOR NOW AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AREAS OF
ADVERSE WINTER WEATHER WITH TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. FULLY EXPECT WE CAN
PULL THE ENTIRE ADVISORY BY 12 OR 15Z...POSSIBLY CONVERTING SOME
OF THE WSW TO A WIND ADVISORY.

MAIN PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING NOW THROUGH 18Z
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE RISES TAPER OFF AND GRADIENT
FORCING RELAXES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SURFACE HIGH WILL END PRECIPITATION NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH
18Z...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS
PAINT SOME PVA INCOMING FROM MONTANA.

DRY AND COLD TONIGHT WITH A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRY AIR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED NORTH...LOWER TEENS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODERATING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS BRING A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRUSHING THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE STATE. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEPING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DRY...WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BRING MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH
THE GLOBAL GEM IN THE MIDDLE. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.

ANOTHER MODEL DIFFERENCE CROPS UP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF...DEVELOPS A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AIDED BY A STRONG JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...PRECIPITATION SPREADS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...WITH A MUCH WEAKER UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND IS DRY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS LATEST SOLUTION IS A DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUN AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ONE ADDITIONAL FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADIENT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDING DOWN A WESTERN U.S RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY BOTH THE 21 MAR 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF. A
QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS BUFR DATA INDICATES AN ELEVATED MIXING LAYER
HEIGHT MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY TAPPING INTO 30 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
EVENT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. SOME SNOW AND LOW CIGS ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OR LOWER WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MID TO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-025-037-048-
051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1138 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAD A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN AS THE PCPN MOVED INTO KGFK BUT IT HAS NOW
SWITCHED MAINLY TO RAIN. SOME OBS SITES IN NORTHWEST MN ARE
REPORTING A MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. NOT REALLY A LOT OF COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH YET BUT EXPECTING THE CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR THE KDVL TO KGFK AREAS. THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE COMING IN STILL
SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT
SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH
THE WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH IT WILL TAKE LONGEST TO CHANGE
OVER THERE. STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA AS A LITTLE SNOW ALONG WITH THE TEMP DROP AND BURST OF
WINDS DURING PRIME DRIVE TIME COULD RESULT IN PROBLEMS THERE TOO.
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SHIFTING THE TRACK OF THE
MID-LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY SOUTH. THIS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ARE SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS. THE 15Z MPX HOPWRF
FOLLOWS THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY STRONG UPPER WAVE ABOUT TO
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS SYSTEM PROPAGATES EAST...700MB
TROUGH WILL BE NEAR DEVILS LAKE AROUND 06Z...THEN DEVELOP INTO A
700MB LOW NEAR GRAND FORKS (OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH) BY 09Z...THEN
BETWEEN BEMIDJI AND PARK RAPIDS BY 12Z...AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THEREAFTER. AS THIS UNFOLDS...EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...BECOMING HEAVIER AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS.
THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD OCCUR JUST NORTH OF THE 700MB LOW
TRACK...WHICH IS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND FORKS
TO BEMIDJI (OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TRACK). MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES QPF IN THIS
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. WITHIN THE
HEAVIER QPF AREA...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MESOSCALE BANDING
(FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCH...CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY)
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING QPF OF AN INCH OR
MORE (COULD EVEN BE ISOLD THUNDER). A BIG QUESTION IS LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING. FOLLOWED THE RAP
925MB TEMPS FOR RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER (WHICH USUALLY DOES A
DECENT JOB IN THESE SITUATIONS)...AND USED A LOWER SNOW RATIO
(10:1-13:1) AS PER THE ROEBBER METHOD. THIS KEEPS THE SNOW AMOUNT
FORECAST SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THE ONLY CHANGE
WILL BE TO MENTION LOCALIZED AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO A FOOT OF
SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA (LIKELY EAST OF THE VALLEY).

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THEN WIND POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...WITH 925MB WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN ADIABATIC TO 925MB
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS STAYING AROUND
35 KNOTS (ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WIND
SPEEDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOT SURE HOW THESE WINDS
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRESH SNOW. WITHOUT ANY FALLING
SNOW...GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE NEW SNOW ALONG
WITH THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...THE CANADIAN BLOWING MODEL
SUGGESTS WE NEED 35 TO 40 KNOTS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (WHICH
SHOULD NOT OCCUR). COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE IT IS NEAR ZERO
VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE MORE PRONE OPEN AREAS...BUT NOT
CONSISTENTLY A BLIZZARD (THIS IS FOR AREAS CURRENTLY IN A WINTER
HEADLINE ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). FOR AREAS EXPECTING ONLY A
TRACE OF SNOWFALL (SOUTHEAST ND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
MN)...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY. IF THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS IS MORE THAN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...THIS COULD BE
CHANGED TO A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY SETS UP...SMALL REFINEMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED TO HEADLINES AND SNOW AMOUNTS (FOR EXAMPLE...SNOW AMOUNTS
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED SOME). THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEM ARE DIFFICULT (P-TYPE AND TRACK ISSUES)...AND
MODELS OFTEN DO NOT HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE HANDLE UNTIL 6 HOURS
BEFOREHAND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLIER IN THE EVENING
MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD FOR LATE
MARCH WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS ACROSS NORTHEAST ND
INTO NORTHWEST MN.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ABOVE ZERO...WHICH ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW LATE MARCH NORMALS.
EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MOST PROMINENT
SHORT-WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP. BIGGER SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S UNTIL WED/THURS WHEN SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE WITH
EASTWARD MOVING INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST STILL DUE TO SNOW AMOUNTS AND
WHETHER/WHERE THE SNOW WILL BLOW. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF BLSN ONLY
WHERE THE MOST SNOW IS EXPECTED AND WINDS ARE STRONGEST...KGFK AND
MAYBE KTVF. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOULD BE QUICK AND THE SNOW
COULD FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES AT KGFK/KTVF/KBJI. NOT AS MUCH FOR
KDVL AND KFAR. HOWEVER WINDS WILL KICK IN STRONGEST AT KDVL/KFAR
AND KGFK. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THINGS
CLEARING OUT BY AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS. WINDS ALSO SHOULD BEGIN
TO DECREASE SOME BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ049-052-053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028>030-038-039-054.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ002-003-
     022>024-027-028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-004>009-
     013>017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...GODON







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 1017 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WERE
STILL LIGHT WEST AT RONDEAU ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE ERIE AT 9 PM
SO THE FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME. UPDATED THE HOURLY FORECAST
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT USING THE HRRR HOURLY TEMPERATURES WHICH
DEPICTED THE MILD TEMPS EARLY TONIGHT THEN A RELATIVELY QUICK DROP
IN TEMPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE ARCTIC AIR FILTERS
IN. RECALCULATED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND CAME UP WITH MOSTLY UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 IN THE
NORTH AND LOWER/MID 20S IN THE SOUTH. TEMPS CAN PROBABLY KEEP
DROPPING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EVEN AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...THE
ARCTIC AIR IS IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE IN THE SEASON.

A NICE SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE CROSSING THE MIDWEST WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA WITH THE FLOW OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION SO BROKEN CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT MINIMUM.
THE THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW PA AND THEN DIMINISH AS THE DRY AIR FINALLY
WINS OUT. THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE IT`S WAY TO
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY CAUSE SKIES TO
CLEAR. MONDAY WILL BE COLD BUT DRY. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SET TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE
SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA. SOME
OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING A REFLECTION OF THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP TO LIKELY ALL AREAS ON
TUESDAY. IT`S LOOKING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS GOING
TO OCCUR FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE SLOWED THE
ONSET DOWN JUST A TAD FROM OUR PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE SNOW SHOULD
END QUICKLY LATE TUESDAY AS THE WAVE ALOFT SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST
COAST. HAVE TRENDED TO THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. THE NAM MOS JUST SEEMS TOO COOL MOST OF THE TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM ON THE
EAST COAST CONTINUES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR THAT
WAS DRAWN SOUTHWARD WILL REMAIN AND WILL HAVE ANOTHER WELL BELOW
NORMAL DAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
EAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTHWARD THURSDAY MORNING AND AT THIS POINT A GOOD SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW WILL RESULT AND WILL FINALLY SEE TEMPERATURES REACH NORMAL.
OVERALL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF INITIAL
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT QUESTIONABLE...BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL
BE FOR FRIDAY. THE COOL AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS MINIMAL AND ALREADY
UPSTREAM THE RIDGE IS SET TO BUILD OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED STRATUS DECKS TO LINGER ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING. A FEW PATCHES OF DIURNAL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND INDIANA GIVES SOME
INDICATION THAT SOME OF THE STRATUS MIGHT SLOWLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNDOWN BUT DON`T GET EXCITED.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY THEN
NON VFR LIKELY ON TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR MONDAY. WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED TO SOME
DEGREE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...JOINING FORCES ON THE EAST COAST
FOR WEDNESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW FOLLOWED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A 10-20
KNOT FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY. FOR ICE
PURPOSES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...OUDEMAN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 1045 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONT OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30KTS LIKELY. MAINLY VFR CEILINGS... HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS LOWER CLOUDS DRIFT
SOUTH OUT OF KS. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG... WITH VFR
CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SFC WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY EARLY AFTN AND THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY
END OF FORECAST.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014/

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO POPS... TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK. LIGHT RETURNS ON
RADAR INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE FROM SOUTH OF
STILLWATER TO DURANT AND LOCATIONS EASTWARD. MORE MODERATE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS ERN OK.
01Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SECONDARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES IN FROM THE W/NW...AT THE
SFC... N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NWRN OK INTO CENTRAL OK
OVERNIGHT. EARLIER RUNS FROM THE HRRR... SUPPORTED BY OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SHOWED SOME INCREASED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS S. CENTRAL OK
WITH THIS IMPULSE... BUT NEWER RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY...
AND FROM CURRENT CONDITIONS/TRENDS... WOULD HAVE TO AGREE. BACKED
DOWN ON POPS THROUGH SUNRISE... WITH SOME PATCHY -DZ MENTIONED
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40...BEHIND THE EXITING
ISOLATED SHOWERS. DROPPED ANY THUNDER MENTION AS LATEST RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIMITED TO NIL ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN... DID LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF
FLURRIES ACROSS NWRN OK FROM MID THRU DAYBREAK. A LITTLE ENHANCED
LIFT AND COLDER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NWRN
OK AS THE SFC TROUGH/WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...APPRECIABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
HAS LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-44 WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE GENERATES LIFT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY FALL OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT
OCCUR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. A SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT
WILL BRING MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY ANOTHER FRONT WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY...KEEP THE MARCH ROLLER COASTER GOING!

FINALLY BY MID WEEK...EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RESUME...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PANHANDLES WILL RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY REQUIRING A WIND ADVISORY. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF A PACIFIC FRONT...COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT
WILL TRAVERSE OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WILDFIRE DANGER...DUE IN PART TO THE GUSTY
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE IN THE LONG RANGE...THOUGH THE PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO FAVOR FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES...AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  51  33  64 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         31  50  31  64 /   0  10   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  52  35  65 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           26  47  27  61 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     27  49  30  62 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         41  55  36  63 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 903 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO POPS... TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK. LIGHT RETURNS ON
RADAR INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE FROM SOUTH OF
STILLWATER TO DURANT AND LOCATIONS EASTWARD. MORE MODERATE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS ERN OK.
01Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SECONDARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES IN FROM THE W/NW...AT THE
SFC... N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NWRN OK INTO CENTRAL OK
OVERNIGHT. EARLIER RUNS FROM THE HRRR... SUPPORTED BY OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE SHOWED SOME INCREASED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS S. CENTRAL OK
WITH THIS IMPULSE... BUT NEWER RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY...
AND FROM CURRENT CONDITIONS/TRENDS... WOULD HAVE TO AGREE. BACKED
DOWN ON POPS THROUGH SUNRISE... WITH SOME PATCHY -DZ MENTIONED
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40...BEHIND THE EXITING
ISOLATED SHOWERS. DROPPED ANY THUNDER MENTION AS LATEST RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LIMITED TO NIL ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN... DID LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF
FLURRIES ACROSS NWRN OK FROM MID THRU DAYBREAK. A LITTLE ENHANCED
LIFT AND COLDER TEMPS WILL SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NWRN
OK AS THE SFC TROUGH/WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...APPRECIABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
HAS LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-44 WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE GENERATES LIFT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY FALL OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT
OCCUR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. A SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT
WILL BRING MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY ANOTHER FRONT WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN ON
TUESDAY...KEEP THE MARCH ROLLER COASTER GOING!

FINALLY BY MID WEEK...EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RESUME...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PANHANDLES WILL RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY REQUIRING A WIND ADVISORY. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF A PACIFIC FRONT...COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT
WILL TRAVERSE OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WILDFIRE DANGER...DUE IN PART TO THE GUSTY
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE IN THE LONG RANGE...THOUGH THE PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO FAVOR FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES...AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  32  51  33  64 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         31  50  31  64 /   0  10   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  52  35  65 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           26  47  27  61 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     27  49  30  62 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         41  55  36  63 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

 416 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
BARTLESVILLE TO NEAR BRISTOW ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...GUSTING UP AROUND 15 TO TO 25 MPH...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO NEAR 30 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. CURRENTLY...A CU FIELD HAD
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITHIN AN
AREA OF A WEAKENING CAP. LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
INDICATE PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE
MENTIONED LOCATIONS AND PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEER AND MODERATE LAPSE RATES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD ALLOW FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPS TO POTENTIALLY BECOME STRONG WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL BEING POSSIBLE. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING LOOK TO BE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE CWA.
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS..WHILE MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY RETURN MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WITH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPS WARM BACK UP NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ONCE AGAIN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT EXITS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  57  34  51 /  10  20  20  10
FSM   47  60  40  56 /  50  40  50  10
MLC   48  58  40  54 /  40  30  30  10
BVO   38  56  31  50 /  10  20  20  10
FYV   40  57  33  49 /  30  20  40  10
BYV   39  55  32  48 /  20  20  40  10
MKO   43  58  35  52 /  30  30  30  10
MIO   39  54  30  48 /  10  10  30   0
F10   44  57  36  52 /  20  30  30  10
HHW   53  58  44  57 /  60  50  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

 852 AM PDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE
UMPQUA BASIN AND PARTS OF THE COQUILLE BASIN. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
LATE THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT SOME DATA SUGGEST
IT`S A GOOD BET WE`LL HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE ROGUE...ILLINOIS...APPLEGATE AND SHASTA
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WE`LL LIKELY UPGRADE
THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING. -PETRUCELLI


&&


.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAF CYCLE.

LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
THIS WILL BRING MVFR TO KRBG FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
BEFORE BURNING OFF BY AROUND 17Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO AROUND
30KT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST NEAR KOTH. SPILDE


&&


.MARINE...NORTH GALES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO TODAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. GALES WILL NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER ZONE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STEEP TO
VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 40 NM
OFFSHORE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL EXIST OVER THE
ENTIRE WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT, SO WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD EASE SOMEWHAT INTO SATURDAY. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WETTER AND WINDIER PATTERN WITH
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL FRONTS MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. SPILDE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM PDT FRI MAR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. THIS IS BRINGING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, ALOFT NORTHWEST FLOW IS
BRINGING A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE AREA TODAY BUT EXPECT
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THEN ON THE WEEKEND , A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANGE TO A WETTER AND COOLER
REGIME.

THIS MORNING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE AREA. ALSO
LIGHT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED IN MANY INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT
AREAS OF FREEZING AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY, THE
APPLEGATE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY. GIVEN
DEW POINTS IN THESE AREAS RANGING FROM 22 TO 30 DEGREES F EARLY
THIS MORNING, EXPECT LOCATIONS THAT ARE PROTECTED FROM WIND TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER
MODOC COUNTY AND OVER AREAS FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE THE NAM AND RUC KEEP THE AREA DRY. GIVEN THE LACK OF
GOOD MOISTURE EXPECT MAINLY JUST SOME CLOUD COVER WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE, ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING, INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING.

THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN
SOME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVES INLAND OVER THE REGION, THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
INLAND AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN. MEANWHILE INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
INLAND ON MONDAY.

THEN MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MOIST AND COOL
PATTERN DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW SETS
UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SERIES OF
FRONTS INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH MODELS SHOW APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY
EVENING AND MOVING INLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH,
MAINLY ABOVE 7000 FEET, AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN LOWER BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 5000 FEET. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ024-026.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ081.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEDFORD OR

 441 AM PDT FRI MAR 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. THIS IS BRINGING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, ALOFT NORTHWEST FLOW IS
BRINGING A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE AREA TODAY BUT EXPECT
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THEN ON THE WEEKEND , A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANGE TO A WETTER AND COOLER
REGIME.

THIS MORNING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE AREA. ALSO
LIGHT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED IN MANY INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT
AREAS OF FREEZING AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY, THE
APPLEGATE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY. GIVEN
DEW POINTS IN THESE AREAS RANGING FROM 22 TO 30 DEGREES F EARLY
THIS MORNING, EXPECT LOCATIONS THAT ARE PROTECTED FROM WIND TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER
MODOC COUNTY AND OVER AREAS FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE THE NAM AND RUC KEEP THE AREA DRY. GIVEN THE LACK OF
GOOD MOISTURE EXPECT MAINLY JUST SOME CLOUD COVER WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE, ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING, INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING.

THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN
SOME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVES INLAND OVER THE REGION, THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
INLAND AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN. MEANWHILE INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
INLAND ON MONDAY.

THEN MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MOIST AND COOL
PATTERN DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW SETS
UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SERIES OF
FRONTS INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH MODELS SHOW APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY
EVENING AND MOVING INLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH,
MAINLY ABOVE 7000 FEET, AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN LOWER BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 5000 FEET. /CC

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAF CYCLE.

LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
THIS WILL BRING MVFR TO KRBG FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
BEFORE BURNING OFF BY AROUND 17Z. PATCHY IFR FOG IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
THE MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COQUILLE VALLEY AND THE LOWER UMPQUA BASIN NEAR
REEDSPORT. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO AROUND 30KT WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST NEAR KOTH. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...NORTH GALES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO TODAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. GALES WILL NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER ZONE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STEEP TO
VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 40 NM
OFFSHORE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL EXIST OVER THE
ENTIRE WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT, SO WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD EASE SOMEWHAT INTO SATURDAY. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WETTER AND WINDIER PATTERN WITH
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL FRONTS MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ024-026.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ081.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/CC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1208 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

DESPITE THE VIGOROUS LOOK TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN
AND HEADING INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN PER WATER VAPOR...THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF IT HAS BEEN VERY UNEVENTFUL. RADAR RETURNS
ARE JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES...BUT LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING AS WELL AS SURFACE
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS HAS PRECLUDED MUCH OF THESE RADAR RETURNS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. WITH RICE LAKE REPORTING 3/4 MILE
VISIBILITY...STILL FEEL CONFIDENT THAT TAYLOR COUNTY WILL SEE SOME
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
THERE...CONFIDENCE HAS REALLY DROPPED AND THEREFORE LOWERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUITE A BIT. IN FACT...EVEN THE BAND OF MID
CLOUDS WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT HAS BEEN THINNING OUT
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THEREFORE...HAVE ALSO WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON
SKY. GIVEN THE INCREASED SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST...HAVE ALSO
BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES...PUSHING THEM TOWARDS THE
MAXIMUM OF ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.

AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY DIVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN WITH PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS ALONG/BEHIND
IT...ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING FROM 20-35 KT. PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MOST PART HAS DRIED UP...AND WITH RAP/HRRR PROGS FOR THE EVENING
REALLY BACKING OFF ON EVENING PRECIPITATION...HAVE GREATLY LOWERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT. NOW ONLY HAVE SOME
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES GIVEN THE FORECAST OF WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE
STRATUS LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD WI...IS
WHERE MOST OF THE TIME WAS SPENT THIS SHIFT. LOOKS LIKE POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTH...WINDY COLD FRONT...AND COLD TEMPERATURE SURGE ALL HAD TO
BE ANALYZED.

LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-FORMED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EAST OF KBIS AT 08Z WITH A NICE BUT NOT DRAMATIC BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER THE MN/ND BORDER AREA. SOME GOOD DARKENING BEHIND THE
WAVE INDICATIVE OF THE DIPOLE NATURE TO THE IMPULSE...LIFT THEN
SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RAOBS ARE INTERESTINGLY DRY WITH KABR MAYBE THE
MOST DRY CONSIDERING IT IS JUST EAST OF THE FORCING AT THAT TIME.
THE LAPSE RATE IS QUITE STEEP THOUGH AT KABR WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WITH A MID-LEVEL SATURATED PARCEL. LATEST RAP
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE WELL MATCHED TO THE RADAR BAND NEAR KABR. HOWEVER...THAT ECHO
HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST. OVERALL...ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL CLOUD AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE RULE OVER THE
DAKOTAS WITH DRY AIR BATTLES ONGOING.

DOUBLE FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH AN OCCLUDED N-S FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS
AND THE COLDER /BELOW 0C AT 925MB/ SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM BISMARCK
INTO SRN MT AT 08Z. THIS IS THE FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE GOOD
PRESSURE RISE...GUSTY WINDS...AND COLDER AIR THIS EVENING.
PRESSURE RISES IN SD RIGHT NOW OF 4 MB/3 HR BUT THOSE SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE SECONDARY FRONT BECOMES THE ONE TO
WATCH. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS STEADY STATE
OR SLIGHTLY FILLS WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

CONSIDERING WE ARE IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE AMOUNT OF SATURATION WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND WHERE...AND ALSO THE TIMING. THE 21.00Z
GFS WAS VERY FAST AND AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN AREA BY MID MORNING WITH DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS SOLUTION IS TOO FAST AND THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER ON THE WET SIDE GIVEN 00Z RAOBS AND CURRENT
TRENDS ON RADAR...AND COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
21.00Z/06Z NAM/ECMWF/LATEST RAP SOLUTION CONSENSUS WITH LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY THE I-94 AND NORTH AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS EXCELLENT AND DEEP QG FORCING FORCING IN A
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT / OVER 8C/KM / IN THIS DEEPLY
DRY AIR MASS AND BELIEVE THIS WILL PROVIDE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT IT SEEMS VERY DRY
AND WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/BELOW 0C...SO HYDROMETEORS WILL
EITHER EVAPORATE/SUBLIME...OR REACH THE SURFACE AND BRIEFLY BE OF
ANOTHER TYPE BEFORE TRANSITING TO SN OR RA. SEEMED THE BIG PICTURE
WAS A RA/SN FORECAST BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES /FREEZING
LEVEL/. MOST OF THE AREA WOULD BE RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM
RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. BUT AGAIN...MOST AREAS SOUTHWEST OF I-94
WILL STRUGGLE WITH SATURATION DURING THE MAIN FORCING PERIOD
AROUND MID-DAY TODAY. THEN...QG- SUBSIDENCE BEGINS ALOFT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SLOWER TIMING AND ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT HAS DELAYED THE ONSET
OF GUSTY WINDS UNTIL THIS EVENING. THAT...AND DRY AIR IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL PROMOTE 50S FOR HIGHS. THIS EVENING A
POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISE WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE IN THE AREAS OF
SERN MN AND NERN IA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE THAT THESE VALUES WILL BE
SEEN HOWEVER IS STARTING TO LOWER AS THE PRESSURE RISE/FALL
COUPLET ISNT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL BRING STEEPER 0-1.5KM AGL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLY SOME
RW-/SW- LINGERING. THUS...HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE EVENING...SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY BE A DRIZZLE.
MOST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...AND WITH
A WARMER DAY FOR ROAD WARMING...FZDZ THREATS SEEM PRETTY LOW THIS
EVE. IT IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL HAVE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-94 TO AROUND AN INCH
BEFORE A RA/SN MIX OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM.

ENJOY THE WARM TODAY CUZ THE NEXT DAYS WILL FAVOR TRAVEL AGENTS
BOOKING FLIGHTS TO THE EQUATOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ABOUT 3F AND INCREASED WINDS...OH
JOY. THE WIND CHILL NOW NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
SERN MN ALL DAY. MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALIES IN THE
-2 RANGE SUGGEST NO RECORDS BUT LITTLE DIURNAL CURVE /MAYBE 5F/.
SOME CLOUDS COULD BE AROUND UNDER THE INVERSION UNTIL AFTERNOON AS
WELL. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...AND BEYOND...
MONDAY-TUESDAY BRINGS A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE TO THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR TUE-WED. BUT THEN...HOLD YOUR EASTER
BONNET...IT LOOKS WARMER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
WITH AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO AND CYCLONE BRINGING A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS CYCLONE FOR LATE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

A DRY AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST MN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AROUND 21Z AT RST AND 22Z AT LSE. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE EVENING...AND HIGHEST AT RST. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE OF
WINDS...EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES. THERE
COULD BE SOME FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AS WELL FOR THE EVENING...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF OR REDUCE THE VISIBILITY FOR. LOOK
FOR BRISK CONDITIONS WITH THE MVFR STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. HEADING INTO SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFILTRATE THE UPPER MIDWEST. DRY AIR AND A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO SCATTER THE MVFR CEILINGS OUT
AND DIMINISH WINDS SOMEWHAT DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

WHILE THE AIR WILL BE COLD THIS WEEKEND...RECORDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

RECORD LOWS ARE ALL BELOW ZERO FOR MARCH 22-23.

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 22/23...

LA CROSSE...MARCH 22 / 9F IN 1888...MARCH 23 / 17F IN 1940
ROCHESTER...MARCH 22 / 6F IN 1888...MARCH 23 / 10F IN 1965

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...AJ
CLIMATE......BAUMGARDT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 645 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTASOTA MOVING TOWARD WI...IS
WHERE MOST OF THE TIME WAS SPENT THIS SHIFT. LOOKS LIKE POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTH...WINDY COLD FRONT...AND COLD TEMPERATURE SURGE ALL HAD TO
BE ANALYZED.

LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-FORMED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EAST OF KBIS AT 08Z WITH A NICE BUT NOT DRAMATIC BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER THE MN/ND BORDER AREA. SOME GOOD DARKENING BEHIND THE
WAVE INDICATIVE OF THE DIPOLE NATURE TO THE IMPULSE...LIFT THEN
SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RAOBS ARE INTERESTINGLY DRY WITH KABR MAYBE THE
MOST DRY CONSIDERING IT IS JUST EAST OF THE FORCING AT THAT TIME.
THE LAPSE RATE IS QUITE STEEP THOUGH AT KABR WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WITH A MID-LEVEL SATURATED PARCEL. LATEST RAP
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE WELL MATCHED TO THE RADAR BAND NEAR KABR. HOWEVER...THAT ECHO
HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST. OVERALL...ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL CLOUD AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE RULE OVER THE
DAKOTASOTA WITH DRY AIR BATTLES ONGOING.

DOUBLE FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH AN OCCLUDED N-S FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS
AND THE COLDER /BELOW 0C AT 925MB/ SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM BISMARCK
INTO SRN MT AT 08Z. THIS IS THE FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE GOOD
PRESSURE RISE...GUSTY WINDS...AND COLDER AIR THIS EVENING.
PRESSURE RISES IN SD RIGHT NOW OF 4 MB/3 HR BUT THOSE SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE SECONDARY FRONT BECOMES THE ONE TO
WATCH. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS STEADY STATE
OR SLIGHTLY FILLS WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

CONSIDERING WE ARE IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE AMOUNT OF SATURATION WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND WHERE...AND ALSO THE TIMING. THE 21.00Z
GFS WAS VERY FAST AND AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN AREA BY MID MORNING WITH DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS SOLUTION IS TOO FAST AND THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER ON THE WET SIDE GIVEN 00Z RAOBS AND CURRENT
TRENDS ON RADAR...AND COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
21.00Z/06Z NAM/ECMWF/LATEST RAP SOLUTION CONSENSUS WITH LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY THE I-94 AND NORTH AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS EXCELLENT AND DEEP QG FORCING FORCING IN A
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT / OVER 8C/KM / IN THIS DEEPLY
DRY AIR MASS AND BELIEVE THIS WILL PROVIDE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT IT SEEMS VERY DRY
AND WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/BELOW 0C...SO HYDROMETEORS WILL
EITHER EVAPORATE/SUBLIME...OR REACH THE SURFACE AND BRIEFLY BE OF
ANOTHER TYPE BEFORE TRANSITING TO SN OR RA. SEEMED THE BIG PICTURE
WAS A RA/SN FORECAST BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES /FREEZING
LEVEL/. MOST OF THE AREA WOULD BE RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM
RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. BUT AGAIN...MOST AREAS SOUTHWEST OF I-94
WILL STRUGGLE WITH SATURATION DURING THE MAIN FORCING PERIOD
AROUND MID-DAY TODAY. THEN...QG- SUBSIDENCE BEGINS ALOFT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SLOWER TIMING AND ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT HAS DELAYED THE ONSET
OF GUSTY WINDS UNTIL THIS EVENING. THAT...AND DRY AIR IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL PROMOTE 50S FOR HIGHS. THIS EVENING A
POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISE WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE IN THE AREAS OF
SERN MN AND NERN IA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE THAT THESE VALUES WILL BE
SEEN HOWEVER IS STARTING TO LOWER AS THE PRESSURE RISE/FALL
COUPLET ISNT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL BRING STEEPER 0-1.5KM AGL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLY SOME
RW-/SW- LINGERING. THUS...HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE EVENING...SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY BE A DRIZZLE.
MOST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...AND WITH
A WARMER DAY FOR ROAD WARMING...FZDZ THREATS SEEM PRETTY LOW THIS
EVE. IT IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL HAVE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-94 TO AROUND AN INCH
BEFORE A RA/SN MIX OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM.

ENJOY THE WARM TODAY CUZ THE NEXT DAYS WILL FAVOR TRAVEL AGENTS
BOOKING FLIGHTS TO THE EQUATOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ABOUT 3F AND INCREASED WINDS...OH
JOY. THE WIND CHILL NOW NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
SERN MN ALL DAY. MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALIES IN THE
-2 RANGE SUGGEST NO RECORDS BUT LITTLE DIURNAL CURVE /MAYBE 5F/.
SOME CLOUDS COULD BE AROUND UNDER THE INVERSION UNTIL AFTERNOON AS
WELL. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...AND BEYOND...
MONDAY-TUESDAY BRINGS A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE TO THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR TUE-WED. BUT THEN...HOLD YOUR EASTER
BONNET...IT LOOKS WARMER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
WITH AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO AND CYCLONE BRINGING A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS CYCLONE FOR LATE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MUCH WARMER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

A LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS MN/WI TODAY. THE
MAIN FORCING LIFT WITH THESE FEATURES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES AND CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST ROUND OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAINLY BE MID LEVEL...WITH CIG HGTS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE
6K-10K FT RANGE. A SECOND...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL USHER A STRONG...CANADIAN
HIGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BEHIND THE FRONT IS SOME LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MVFR/IFR CIGS BACK IN ND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
MOISTURE LOOKS TO ARRIVE A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH SOME
DIURNAL MIXING...INITIAL CIGS LOOK TO BE IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING AND FOR
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN AND THE AIRMASS COOLS UNDER AN
INVERSION.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20KTS AND GUSTY...
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 20-30KTS MAINLY IN THE 02Z-08Z TIME-
FRAME...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

WHILE THE AIR WILL BE COLD THIS WEEKEND...RECORDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

RECORD LOWS ARE ALL BELOW ZERO FOR MARCH 22-23.

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 22/23...

LA CROSSE...MARCH 22 / 9F IN 1888...MARCH 23 / 17F IN 1940
ROCHESTER...MARCH 22 / 6F IN 1888...MARCH 23 / 10F IN 1965

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RRS
CLIMATE......BAUMGARDT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 421 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTASOTA MOVING TOWARD WI...IS
WHERE MOST OF THE TIME WAS SPENT THIS SHIFT. LOOKS LIKE POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTH...WINDY COLD FRONT...AND COLD TEMPERATURE SURGE ALL HAD TO
BE ANALYZED.

LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-FORMED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EAST OF KBIS AT 08Z WITH A NICE BUT NOT DRAMATIC BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER THE MN/ND BORDER AREA. SOME GOOD DARKENING BEHIND THE
WAVE INDICATIVE OF THE DIPOLE NATURE TO THE IMPULSE...LIFT THEN
SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RAOBS ARE INTERESTINGLY DRY WITH KABR MAYBE THE
MOST DRY CONSIDERING IT IS JUST EAST OF THE FORCING AT THAT TIME.
THE LAPSE RATE IS QUITE STEEP THOUGH AT KABR WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WITH A MID-LEVEL SATURATED PARCEL. LATEST RAP
FRONOTGENESIS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE WELL MATCHED TO THE RADAR BAND NEAR KABR. HOWEVER...THAT ECHO
HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST. OVERALL...ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL CLOUD AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE RULE OVER THE
DAKOTASOTA WITH DRY AIR BATTLES ONGOING.

DOUBLE FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH AN OCCLUDED N-S FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS
AND THE COLDER /BELOW 0C AT 925MB/ SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM BISMARK
INTO SRN MT AT 08Z. THIS IS THE FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE GOOD
PRESSURE RISE...GUSTY WINDS...AND COLDER AIR THIS EVENING.
PRESSURE RISES IN SD RIGHT NOW OF 4 MB/3 HR BUT THOSE SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE SECONDARY FRONT BECOMES THE ONE TO
WATCH. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS STEADY STATE
OR SLIGHTLY FILLS WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

CONSIDERING WE ARE IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE AMOUNT OF SATURATION WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND WHERE...AND ALSO THE TIMING. THE 21.00Z
GFS WAS VERY FAST AND AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN AREA BY MID MORNING WITH DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS SOLUTION IS TOO FAST AND THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER ON THE WET SIDE GIVEN 00Z RAOBS AND CURRENT
TRENDS ON RADAR...AND COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
21.00Z/06Z NAM/ECMWF/LATEST RAP SOLUTION CONSENSUS WITH LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY THE I-94 AND NORTH AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS EXCELLENT AND DEEP QG FORCING FORCING IN A
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT / OVER 8C/KM / IN THIS DEEPLY
DRY AIR MASS AND BELIEVE THIS WILL PROVIDE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT IT SEEMS VERY DRY
AND WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/BELOW 0C...SO HYDROMETEORS WILL
EITHER EVAPORATE/SUBLIME...OR REACH THE SURFACE AND BRIEFLY BE OF
ANOTHER TYPE BEFORE TRANSITING TO SN OR RA. SEEMED THE BIG PICTURE
WAS A RA/SN FORECAST BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES /FREEZING
LEVEL/. MOST OF THE AREA WOULD BE RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM
RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. BUT AGAIN...MOST AREAS SOUTHWEST OF I-94
WILL STRUGGLE WITH SATURATION DURING THE MAIN FORCING PERIOD
AROUND MID-DAY TODAY. THEN...QG- SUBSIDENCE BEGINS ALOFT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SLOWER TIMING AND ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT HAS DELAYED THE ONSET
OF GUSTY WINDS UNTIL THIS EVENING. THAT...AND DRY AIR IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL PROMOTE 50S FOR HIGHS. THIS EVENING A
POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISE WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE IN THE AREAS OF
SERN MN AND NERN IA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE THAT THESE VALUES WILL BE
SEEN HOWEVER IS STARTING TO LOWER AS THE PRESSURE RISE/FALL
COUPLET ISNT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL BRING STEEPER 0-1.5KM AGL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLY SOME
RW-/SW- LINGERING. THUS...HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE EVENING...SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY BE A DRIZZLE.
MOST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...AND WITH
A WARMER DAY FOR ROAD WARMING...FZDZ THREATS SEEM PRETTY LOW THIS
EVE. IT IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL HAVE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-94 TO AROUND AN INCH
BEFORE A RA/SN MIX OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM.

ENJOY THE WARM TODAY CUZ THE NEXT DAYS WILL FAVOR TRAVEL AGENTS
BOOKING FLIGHTS TO THE EQUATOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ABOUT 3F AND INCREASED WINDS...OH
JOY. THE WIND CHILL NOW NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
SERN MN ALL DAY. MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALIES IN THE
-2 RANGE SUGGEST NO RECORDS BUT LITTLE DIURNAL CURVE /MAYBE 5F/.
SOME CLOUDS COULD BE AROUND UNDER THE INVERSION UNTIL AFTERNOON AS
WELL. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...AND BEYOND...
MONDAY-TUESDAY BRINGS A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE TO THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR TUE-WED. BUT THEN...HOLD YOUR EASTER
BONNET...IT LOOKS WARMER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
WITH AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO AND CYCLONE BRINGING A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS CYCLONE FOR LATE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MUCH WARMER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING A SWATH OF PCPN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN/WI.
EXPECTED TRACK WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN CHANCES NORTH OF
KRST/KLSE...AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 18-21Z
TIME FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND BECOMING
STRONG AND GUSTY. MVFR CIGS ALSO LOOK PROBABLE...LIKELY PERSISTING
FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FRI EVENING...IN THE VICINITY OF
A SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. NOT MUCH SLACKENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ON SAT...SO WINDS WILL STAY UP.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

WHILE THE AIR WILL BE COLD THIS WEEKEND...RECORDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

RECORD LOWS ARE ALL BELOW ZERO FOR MARCH 22-23.

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 22/23...

LA CROSSE...MARCH 22 / 9F IN 1888...MARCH 23 / 17F IN 1940
ROCHESTER...MARCH 22 / 6F IN 1888...MARCH 23 / 10F IN 1965

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE...BAUMGARDT





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 346 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATE MONDAY AND THEN TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST,
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
WRF-NMMB. UP IN NORTHERN CANADA AND ALASKA, NOT THAT THEIR 00Z
SOLUTION OUTCOMES WERE COLLABORATIVE, THE GFS AND ECMWF
INITIALIZATIONS WERE CLOSE. THE REX HIGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER
ALASKA THAN INITIALIZED AND THE IMPLICATION WOULD BE THAT THE LAST
PIECE OF THE PUZZLE, THE SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST TERRITORY AND
NUNAVUT BORDER IS COMING IN SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN INITIALIZED. THE
NEXT SOUNDING RUN SHOULD FINALLY HAVE A BETTER CAPTURE AND LAND
BASED RAOB SAMPLING OF THIS FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME THE GFS LOOKED
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND BETTER AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ITS
INITIALIZATION AND WAS USED MORE SO TODAY.

SECONDARY FRONT WAS CLEARLY SHOWING ON THE 925MB AND 850MB ANALYSES
ALONG THE MI AND CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SECOND BOUNDARY HAS OPENED
THE DOOR FOR POPS SOUTH AS WAVES ARE FORMING ON THE FRONT AND THE
FRONT ITSELF IS STALLING. THE FORCING THAT THERE IS WITHIN OUR CWA
IS EXTREMELY HI BASED (FGEN FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CENTERED
AROUND 600MB) WITH NO FCST MID LEVEL WAA THIS FAR NORTH. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR BELOW IT. THE FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS OUTPACING
THE MOISTURE AND THE MOISTURE IS OUTPACING THE DPVA. THE NET RESULT
IS NOT MUCH PCPN IN OUR CWA, EVEN THOUGH MEASURABLE HAS TRENDED
NORTHWARD FROM LAST NIGHT.

LOOKING AT MODELING VERIFICATION, IN SPITE OF THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
INITIALIZATION, THE WRF-NMMB VERIFIED THE BEST AT 06Z WITH ITS QPF
VS REALITY IN THE LOWER MS VLY. OUR MEASURABLE POPS ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE OP WRF-NMMB AND RAP COMBO, GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE .05"
ISOHYET ON THE GLOBAL MODELS. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE ALREADY TOO LOW,
WRF-NMMB 2M TEMPS NOT USED AND WE SIDED WITH THE WARMER GFS MAV
GUIDANCE TODAY. GIVEN THIS AND THE LIGHT PCPN INTENSITY, PTYPE SOUTH
ALL RAIN. WE DID KEEP THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES FAR NW AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM STAT GUIDANCE, BUT TODAY WE ARE
CONCERNED THAT MAYBE CLOUDINESS WILL ASSIST AND WE DID NOT GO ABOVE
GFS MOS. CWA IN A SEMI-COLISH SPOT WRT PRESSURE GRADIENT, SO NOT A
WINDY DAY AS YESTERDAY BECAME ONCE THE SUN BROKE OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THRU 23Z SOUTH IN LINE WITH LATEST RAP.
THEN AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMES THRU, WE SHOULD HAVE A WIND
PICK-UP DURING THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE WRF-NMMB
STARTS TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. ATTM WHILE THERE IS SOME CAA SC, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SOLID. WE CONTINUE TO SIDE CLOSER TO THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS AND
ECMWF SKY SOLUTIONS. MIN TEMPS A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND. GIVEN THE CAA
AND THE THERMAL TROF PEAKING AT 12Z, EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER THAN
USUAL MORNING MIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE HIGHS
MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 20S FAR NORTH. THESE READINGS ARE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID/LATE MARCH. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME SUB-ZERO DEW
POINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BOMB OFF
THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM
THE COAST FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND COMBINE WITH ENERGY
CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW) TUE-WED WITH TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. THESE TOTALS ALIGN WITH THE LATEST WWD
TOTALS. SEVERAL FACTORS COULD CREATE DIFFERENT TOTALS...NAMELY THE
STORM DEVELOPING SOONER OR COMING CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST. PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FCSTS FOR THE LATEST. THE LATEST MODELS STILL
SHOW THE HEAVIEST PCPN MOVING JUST EAST OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT...WITH THE ERN PART OF NJ GETTING THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY
PCPN FOR 6-8 HRS.

COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WED/WED NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S WED WITH W/NW WINDS GUSTING TO
30-35 MPH AT TIMES. TH WINDS SUBSIDE LATER WED NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS FAR
NORTH.

THU/THU NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THEN
MOVES EAST. MODERATING TEMPERATURES THU...BUT STILL SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MOSTLY LOW 40S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 40S
SOUTH. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

FRI THRU SAT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SRN CANADA. A SRLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR ARRIVES
FRI WITH INCREASING CHC FOR SHOWERS FRI NIGHT/SAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S BOTH FRI AND
SAT.

SUN...A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER FORESEEN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE CONTINUES VFR FORECASTS. THERE MIGHT BE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS IN DELMARVA LATE TODAY.

REST OF OVERNIGHT. SOME DECAYING VFR STRATOCU MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
KABE AND KRDG WITH A HIGHER BASED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CIG SPREADING
EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

THIS MORNING VFR CIG FORECAST TO LOWER MORE COMFORTABLY INTO AC
LEVEL. NORTHWEST WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER, AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS/TERMINALS SOUTHEAST WE
HAVE KEPT A STRATOCU LEVEL VFR CIG IN THE TAFS. PCPN ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT MIGHT MAKE IT CLOSE TO KACY AND KMIV, BUT CONFIDENCE
AND INHERENT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. WILL REACCESS FOR 12Z TAFS.
FARTHER NORTHWEST CONTINUED HIGHER BASED VFR CIG. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, SECONDARY CFP MOVES THROUGH. WINDS VEER MORE TO THE
NORTH WITH SIMILAR TO AFTERNOON SUSTAINED SPEEDS, BUT GUSTS
REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS. VFR STRATOCU CIG MIGHT LINGER AT KMIV
AND KACY, REST OF TERMINALS WE ARE NOT FORECASTING A CIG.

INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS MIGHT CONTINUE AT WINDIER
TERMINALS, BUT SKIES BY THEN SHOULD BE CLEAR.


OUTLOOK...
MON/MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUE THRU WED MORNING...MOSTLY IFR/MVFR WITH LOW CIGS/SNOW/GUSTY WINDS.
LATER WED INTO THU...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY. BUT, WE ARE
EXPECTING THEM TO INCREASE TONIGHT AFTER THE CDFNTL PASSAGE
AND THERE IS BETTER MIXING AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA WATERS.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
AREA WATERS. THE START TIME IS TO THE CATCH THE NORTHERN AREA WATERS
WIND UPTICK FIRST. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE MWW.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
MON NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE-WED...WINDS INCREASE STEADILY TUE WILL PROBABLY REACH GALE
CRITERIA BY TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WED.
WED NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE WED
NIGHT.
THU/THU NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE LATE
THU NIGHT.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE LATEST ESTOFS STORM SURGE TIDE GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONDITIONS...BUT IT DOES COME CLOSE. THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TUESDAY IS THE ONE THE COME CLOSEST TO
FLOODING. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE THAT THE ESTOFS IS BASED
ON IS NOT THE FCST THAT WE ARE GOING WITH...SINCE WE HAVE TENDED
TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE LOW A BIT CLOSER TO
THE SHORE...SO THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN FOR A
WHILE...SO COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES ARE ADVISED TO LOOK FOR UPDATES
IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS A CLOSER TO THE COAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE
THE RISK OF GREATER COASTAL FLOODING.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GIGI/O`HARA






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

 307 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014


.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER COASTAL NE
FL HAVE SHIFTED NE INTO SE GA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE AS MODELS AND OBS SHOW SW WINDS
INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR BUT DO NOT PLAN ON AN
ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE SW THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HRRR AND NARRE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF DENSE FOG
FORMING AFTER 08Z FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK
CAPE/INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. N
TO NE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT REACHING SOUTHERN ZONES BY 12Z MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COOLING INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER SE GA BEHIND
FRONT.

FOR MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR WORKING IN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FROM I-10 NORTHWARD...WITH 65-70 FURTHER
SOUTH. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WAVES RIDING NORTH
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH NE FL HAVING THE GREATEST SHOT AT
ORGANIZED PRECIP MONDAY AFTN. WILL USE MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF NE FL...WITH LESSER CHANCES ACROSS SE GA...WITH FAR INTERIOR
SE GA MAINLY DRY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY WITH
LAKE WIND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. WITH INSTABILITY
ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WILL LEAVE TSTMS
OUT OF THE FCST.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...EXITING TUESDAY MORNING. WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TAP
THINK PRECIP COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...ONCE AGAIN
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL. WILL USE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE...WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NE FL/SE GA MONDAY
NIGHT. A RAPID PRECIP DECREASE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST...WITH MOST AREAS DRY BY MIDDAY INTO
THE EARLY AFTN. WITH THE STRONGER LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND GREATER
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THUS WILL
USE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
THUNDER THREAT ENDING TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH FOR SE GA TO
AROUND 1 INCH FOR NE FL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THICK CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY SEASONABLY COOL
BUT A BIT MILDER THAN MONDAY.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT QUITE COOL AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL ADD TO THE CHILL...BUT  WILL PREVENT ANY FROST TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST THURSDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
FALLING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL USE LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NE FL TAFS AS WESTERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED. THINK ANY LOW CLOUDS FROM THE GULF WILL REMAIN
TO THE SW...THUS WILL USE VFR...WITH INCREASING MID DECK CLOUDS THIS
AFTN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. FOR SSI...VLIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS TO MVFR...THEN VFR SHORTLY AFTER
THAT. WILL USE VCSH FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY FOR ALL PORTS...ENDING
BY 02-04Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AREA OF DENSE FOG OVER THE GA WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WILL MONITOR FOR AN DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT DENSE FOG MAY BE SHORT
LIVED AS INCREASING SW WINDS SHOULD BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BRINGING A
SURGE IN NE WINDS. WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE LOW EJECTS NE AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...WITH GALES
QUITE LIKELY OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS INTO NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK ON MONDAY AS ONSHORE
WINDS INCREASE WITH BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  49  62  47 /  40  40  10  60
SSI  73  53  59  53 /  30  30  30  70
JAX  80  54  63  53 /  30  40  40  70
SGJ  78  59  64  57 /  30  40  50  70
GNV  80  57  67  53 /  40  40  50  80
OCF  81  57  71  56 /  30  40  60  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 320 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
340 PM CDT

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PERSISTS THIS WEEK IN ZONAL TO SOMEWHAT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUING TO VARY GREATLY DAY TO DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND
SUPPORT A LONG FETCH OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA.  HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IDEAL.  MOISTURE IS
QUITE LIMITED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH...WITH SINGLE DIGIT
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORTIVE SATURATION
ALOFT.  THE LAKE ITSELF AS A SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER THE PORTION OF THE LAKE ADJACENT
TO THE AREA OF CONCERN.  GIVEN THESE QUESTIONS...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH AROUND AN INCH
OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE DAY ABOUT 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN SUNDAY NIGHT THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND
DESPITE THE RECENT DECREASE IN SNOW COVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE LOWEST LYING SHELTERED AREAS. THE RECORD LOW FOR
MONDAY IN CHICAGO IS 5 DEGREES AND IN ROCKFORD IS 1 BUT THOSE DO
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN DANGER OF BEING BROKEN. RECORD COLD HIGHS ARE
AROUND 20 THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND THOSE ALSO APPEAR SAFE FOR NOW.

UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGHS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AFTER TONIGHT COMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.  DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE IN THE STRENGTH OF A
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...AND THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW...BUT ALL AGREE ON THE PASSAGE OF AT LEAST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.  AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE NAM AND PUT IN 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR PART OF
THE AREA...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A BLEND OF POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE
CATEGORY.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON WEDNESDAY...AND IF PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MOST OF THE
DAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE
COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST REACH INTO THE UPPER
30S OR LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE RIDGE CAN WORK ITS WAY
EAST EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK.  WEDNESDAYS RIDGE IS WELL TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.  WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.
IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CAN HOLD OFF TILL LATER FRIDAY THEN
BOTH DAYS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD THOUGH BREEZY. SATURDAY THEN COOLS
OFF AGAIN UNDER POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW BUT CLEARING SKIES AND
LATE MARCH SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO WARM UP
A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LENNING

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS 15-20 KT EARLY
  THIS MORNING DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NORTHEAST BY LATE
  AFTERNOON.

* POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILING EARLY THIS AM ALONG WESTERN
  FRINGE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUD PLUME INTO IL/IN STATE LINE AND GYY
  AREA.

* WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
  MOVES ACROSS AREA.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...THOUGH SPEEDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CONVERGENT SURFACE WIND FIELD APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE JUST EAST
OF THE ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE INTO THE GYY AREA AT 05Z...SUGGESTING
FOCUS OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF ORD/MDW. TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL ALOFT WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW...AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER LAKE
IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SHSN WILL AFFECT GARY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND HAVE
INDICATED TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS THERE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLY LOWER VIS CONDITIONS IF SHSN INTENSIFY
SUFFICIENTLY. HIGH RES RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING SFC WIND
FIELD THE BEST...WITH OUR LOCAL 8 KM WRF LOOKING SIMILAR IN THE BY
09Z-12Z. THESE MODELS SUGGEST LAKE EFFECT BAND WOULD EVENTUALLY
MIGRATE EAST OF GYY BY MID/LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...ORD/MDW
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG WESTERN FRINGE OF LAKE CLOUDS...WITH MAINLY
VFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE IL LAKE SHORE.
SEVERAL MODELS HINT AT NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING AS FAR INLAND AS
ORD/MDW PRIOR TO 00Z. EXPECT THIS WILL OCCUR...THOUGH INLAND PUSH
AND POSITION/TIMING RELATIVE TO ORD/MDW ARE LOW CONFIDENCE DETAILS
AT THIS DISTANCE.

RATZER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR AS MVFR CIGS WITH LAKE
  EFFECT EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OFF TO EAST OF ORD/MDW THIS
  MORNING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN DECREASING
  CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE/TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
  OFF LAKE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR...THEN CHC -SN/MVFR MONDAY EVE/NIGHT.

TUESDAY...CHC-SN/MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

WEDNESDAY...SLGT CHC -SN. MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHC -RA/MVFR.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
320 AM CDT

MAIN MARINE FORECAST FOCUS IS WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS
IN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF HIGHS/TROUGHS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BRIEFLY ELEVATED IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ON
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL REALLY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE LAKE TONIGHT. AFTER THE RIDGE
PASSES AND MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS COLD AIR AND A TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMBINE FORCES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL RELAX TUESDAY
EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES DO EXIST BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
MODELS WITH THE LOW BY THAT TIME...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT A PERIOD
OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

RATZER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
302 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 302 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday

High pressure will settle southward into the region today,
providing dry but unseasonably cool conditions. Mid/high clouds
currently blanketing central Illinois will shift E/SE this
morning, leaving behind sunny skies by midday. Despite full
sunshine for much of the day, continued CAA on brisk northerly
winds will keep temperatures mainly in the 30s. Clear skies/light
winds beneath the ridge axis will create excellent radiational
cooling conditions this evening before clouds begin to increase
in advance of the next storm system after midnight. As a result,
overnight low temperatures will dip into the teens across the
board.

Short-wave energy currently evident on water vapor imagery over
British Columbia will dive southeastward tonight into Monday,
spreading clouds and precip into central Illinois. 00z Mar 23
models in excellent agreement in keeping precip west of the area
until Monday afternoon. Have therefore maintained a dry forecast
Monday morning, then introduced chance POPs along/west of I-57
during the afternoon. Despite afternoon highs in the middle to
upper 30s, forecast soundings continue to show quite a bit of dry
air below 850mb, suggesting ample evaporative cooling will allow
precip to fall as snow. Strongest lift and deepest moisture
coincide during the evening, so will increase POPs to likely at
that time. With above freezing surface temps, will not see much
snow accumulation prior to sunset, but once temps drop and snow
picks up after dark, a light accumulation of 1 inch or less will
be likely.

Given fast northwesterly flow, decided to trim POPs for Tuesday
morning, with just a slight chance lingering across the eastern
KILX CWA. Blustery and cold conditions will prevail in the wake of
the storm system on Tuesday. Northwesterly winds gusting to between
25 and 30 mph will create wind-chills in the single digits and
teens as actual air temperatures struggle to rise into the lower
to middle 30s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

Once early week system moves eastward, upper pattern will quickly
become zonal by the middle and end of the week. This will allow a
warming trend to develop, with high temperatures climbing back to
near normal in the lower to middle 50s by Thursday and Friday.
Meanwhile, a vigorous wave is expected to come onshore along the
West Coast, then track eastward into the Midwest by Thursday.
Increasing southerly flow ahead of the system may trigger some WAA
rain showers as early as Wednesday night with better chances
arriving on Thursday. As negatively tilted upper trough and
deepening surface low approach, showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will become more widespread by Thursday night. Low
will lift into the Great Lakes on Friday, dragging a cold front
though central Illinois. A few showers will linger along/ahead of
the boundary on Friday followed by dry and mild weather for next
weekend.

Barnes
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1141 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2014

VFR clouds at 10k to 12k FT will continue to stream across C IL
from the west in the fast jet stream flow. Surface winds will turn
more northerly as the surface high pressure builds into IL. That
northerly flow may drag some lake effect clouds toward our eastern
CWA after midnight. Those clouds should generally be around 2.5k
to 3.5k FT and arrive after 09z as depicted by the RAP and HRRR,
with some support from the NAM as well. That period of low clouds
could linger until mid to late morning on Sunday before dry air
closer to the center of the high finally dissipates the majority
of our cloud cover. The remainder of Sunday should be mostly clear
with just some cirrus Sunday afternoon and evening.

The surface pressure gradient and pressure rises will continue to
create NW winds in the 10-15kt range the rest of tonight and through
most of the day tomorrow. By sunset, winds should decouple as the
surface ridge axis pushes into IL.

Shimon
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1252 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
340 PM CDT

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN PERSISTS THIS WEEK IN ZONAL TO SOMEWHAT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUING TO VARY GREATLY DAY TO DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND
SUPPORT A LONG FETCH OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA.  HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IDEAL.  MOISTURE IS
QUITE LIMITED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH...WITH SINGLE DIGIT
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORTIVE SATURATION
ALOFT.  THE LAKE ITSELF AS A SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER THE PORTION OF THE LAKE ADJACENT
TO THE AREA OF CONCERN.  GIVEN THESE QUESTIONS...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH AROUND AN INCH
OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE DAY ABOUT 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN SUNDAY NIGHT THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND
DESPITE THE RECENT DECREASE IN SNOW COVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE LOWEST LYING SHELTERED AREAS. THE RECORD LOW FOR
MONDAY IN CHICAGO IS 5 DEGREES AND IN ROCKFORD IS 1 BUT THOSE DO
NOT APPEAR TO BE IN DANGER OF BEING BROKEN. RECORD COLD HIGHS ARE
AROUND 20 THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND THOSE ALSO APPEAR SAFE FOR NOW.

UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGHS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AFTER TONIGHT COMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.  DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE IN THE STRENGTH OF A
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT...AND THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW...BUT ALL AGREE ON THE PASSAGE OF AT LEAST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.  AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE NAM AND PUT IN 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR PART OF
THE AREA...SO HAVE STAYED WITH A BLEND OF POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE
CATEGORY.

HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON WEDNESDAY...AND IF PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MOST OF THE
DAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE
COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST REACH INTO THE UPPER
30S OR LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE RIDGE CAN WORK ITS WAY
EAST EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK.  WEDNESDAYS RIDGE IS WELL TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.  WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.
IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CAN HOLD OFF TILL LATER FRIDAY THEN
BOTH DAYS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD THOUGH BREEZY. SATURDAY THEN COOLS
OFF AGAIN UNDER POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW BUT CLEARING SKIES AND
LATE MARCH SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO WARM UP
A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LENNING

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS 15-20 KT EARLY
  THIS MORNING DIMINISHING AND POSSIBLY BECOMING NORTHEAST BY LATE
  AFTERNOON.

* POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILING EARLY THIS AM ALONG WESTERN
  FRINGE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUD PLUME INTO IL/IN STATE LINE AND GYY
  AREA.

* WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
  MOVES ACROSS AREA.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...THOUGH SPEEDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WEAKENS
WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CONVERGENT SURFACE WIND FIELD APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE JUST EAST
OF THE ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE INTO THE GYY AREA AT 05Z...SUGGESTING
FOCUS OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF ORD/MDW. TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL ALOFT WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW...AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER LAKE
IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SHSN WILL AFFECT GARY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND HAVE
INDICATED TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS THERE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLY LOWER VIS CONDITIONS IF SHSN INTENSIFY
SUFFICIENTLY. HIGH RES RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING SFC WIND
FIELD THE BEST...WITH OUR LOCAL 8 KM WRF LOOKING SIMILAR IN THE BY
09Z-12Z. THESE MODELS SUGGEST LAKE EFFECT BAND WOULD EVENTUALLY
MIGRATE EAST OF GYY BY MID/LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...ORD/MDW
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG WESTERN FRINGE OF LAKE CLOUDS...WITH MAINLY
VFR CIGS EXPECTED.

WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE IL LAKE SHORE.
SEVERAL MODELS HINT AT NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING AS FAR INLAND AS
ORD/MDW PRIOR TO 00Z. EXPECT THIS WILL OCCUR...THOUGH INLAND PUSH
AND POSITION/TIMING RELATIVE TO ORD/MDW ARE LOW CONFIDENCE DETAILS
AT THIS DISTANCE.

RATZER


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR AS MVFR CIGS WITH LAKE
  EFFECT EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OFF TO EAST OF ORD/MDW THIS
  MORNING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN DECREASING
  CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE/TIMING OF POTENTIAL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
  OFF LAKE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR...THEN CHC -SN/MVFR MONDAY EVE/NIGHT.

TUESDAY...CHC-SN/MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.

WEDNESDAY...SLGT CHC -SN. MVFR POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CHC -RA/MVFR.

MDB

&&

.MARINE...
324 PM CDT

WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...A PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
LAKE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS HAVE VARIED
OVER THE LAKE TODAY AND CONTINUE TO VARY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
SPEEDS OVER THE LAKE LIKELY BECOMING MORE UNIFORM AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE TO BE IN THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE TONIGHT...WITH WAVES FURTHER BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THIS INCLUDES THE NEARSHORE WATERS
WHERE WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND SO
HAVE ISSUED AN SCA DURING THIS TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WAVES
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED BEYOND 15Z SUNDAY...AND THUS A POSSIBILITY FOR
SCA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST BEYOND THE CURRENT END TIME. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO







Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1141 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2014

Plenty of mid-level moisture will be streaming into IL from the
west overnight, keeping clouds over a majority of our forecast
area through morning. The only exception may be north of Peoria
where drier air may reduce the mid-clouds and leave just some
cirrus at times. The clouds will work to insulate the lower
levels and keep low temps from dropping down to guidance numbers.
Will be increasing lows a few degrees where thicker clouds will
be more prominent across at least the mid section of the area.
Sunshine should break through Sunday morning as dry air closer to
the center of the high filters in from the NW.

Radar returns this evening and overnight, associate with the cloud
layer, will not produce any precip. Virga will be the primary
result. Updates this evening were mainly to temp grids with minor
adjustments to clouds. Updated forecast info will be available
shortly.

Shimon

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1141 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2014

VFR clouds at 10k to 12k FT will continue to stream across C IL
from the west in the fast jet stream flow. Surface winds will turn
more northerly as the surface high pressure builds into IL. That
northerly flow may drag some lake effect clouds toward our eastern
CWA after midnight. Those clouds should generally be around 2.5k
to 3.5k FT and arrive after 09z as depicted by the RAP and HRRR,
with some support from the NAM as well. That period of low clouds
could linger until mid to late morning on Sunday before dry air
closer to the center of the high finally dissipates the majority
of our cloud cover. The remainder of Sunday should be mostly clear
with just some cirrus Sunday afternoon and evening.

The surface pressure gradient and pressure rises will continue to
create NW winds in the 10-15kt range the rest of tonight and through
most of the day tomorrow. By sunset, winds should decouple as the
surface ridge axis pushes into IL.

Shimon
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 316 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2014

Main concerns this forecast period will be the chance of snow for
early next week, Mon through Tue. Then the concern shifts to later
part of the week with a stronger system and chances of rain. Short
term models differ on strength of the first system with NAM/SREF
stronger than the GFS/ECMWF. Models look similar til Monday
morning, but then differ during the system, which is the most
critical time. This will have to be watched over the next couple
of model runs since this appears to be the first or second run
that the this has occurred. All models do have mid level wave and
pcpn moving across the area at the same time, just amount is
different.

Extended models agree on pattern shifting from northwest flow to
more zonal for later part of the week. So, there is some agreement
with the second system timing and resulting weather, which looks
to start little sooner and last little longer than previous
forecasts.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

Cold high pressure will continue over the area through Sunday
night and then the high will shift to the east, allowing a weather
system to move into the area for Monday afternoon through early
Tuesday morning. With the model differences/issues mentioned above
believe it best to keep pops in chance category, though in the
40-50 range, during the time of most of the pcpn. Models do agree
on timing of pcpn starting Monday afternoon in the western half of
the cwa, and then continuing through Mon night and then across the
eastern half of the cwa for Tuesday morning, and ending by
afternoon. Temps will be sufficiently cold in the atmosphere that
almost all the pcpn should be snow during the period. However,
there is a small chance that there could be a little bit more warm
air in the lower levels in the southeast, that some of the pcpn
could be a mix of rain and snow. However, because of the model
differences, am not going to mention that at this time and just
keep all pcpn in form of snow. Forecasted snowfall amounts will be
an inch or less over the northern part of the area through Tue
morning. South and southeastern areas will be less, given the
possible mix and the slightly warmer temperatures. If, however,
the stronger NAM does verify, then amounts will likely be more
than an inch. But keeping it on the lower side for now.

Temps will remain around 15 degrees below normal through the
period. MOS guidance looks ok.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday

Cool high pressure then returns for a brief period Tue night
through Wed night, before the next weather system for rest of the
week. This next system appears to come in two waves, with warm air
advection pcpn coming Thursday and then the main system/front
coming Thur night into Friday. Pcpn type will be all liquid and
for now will just have showers. However, based on current model
runs, early indications are that there could be some thunder in
there as well. Will continue to monitor this in the days ahead.
Temps will finally warm back to around normal.

Auten


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

 1158 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

UPDATE Issued at 949 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

Forecast looking pretty good late this evening. The 00Z NAM and
latest HRRR keep any tangible precipitation just south of our
border, but latest radar trends do show some light echoes into
southeast Missouri. Not sure if those echoes are reaching the
ground or not...but the KPOF ASOS is not registering any
precipitation. Figure a few sprinkles at best out of the echoes
currently over southeast Missouri. The bottom line is that the
hourly PoP trends were left alone overnight. The 50-60% PoPs right
along the border may be too high, but the gradient will be sharp
on the north end of the precipitation shield.

Used the consensus of short term guidance to increase north winds
through the night, and also bring temperatures and dew points down
a bit over much of the area. The exception is over west Kentucky,
where temperatures will be slower to fall than expected. This may
be just enough to keep snow from reaching the ground, if there is
any tangible precipitation overnight. Wind chills will be in the
20s over most areas by daybreak Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

Skies have cleared as high pressure continues to build south
across the area. Next system of interest taking shape over the
southern Plains. This feature will move east tonight and may
spread light rains into the SRN 1/4 of the area overnight. Will
continue with this chance, with generally dry conditions north of
the Ohio. Models continue to vary with the northward extent, which
lends to lower confidence given we are this close to onset.
Adjustments can be made during the evening shift. Before the light
precip moves out, will carry 3 hrs or so of a light rain, light
snow mix possibility. It will not amount to anything.

Dry weather returns Sunday through Monday in the wake of the weak
mid level system, and with high pressure still making its presence
felt. The system that will affect the area Monday night is a bit
more dynamic. Will continue with our low chance PoPs area wide
Monday night and in the far east Tuesday. Will also continue with
the mix (chance of rain and snow) type wording. Not a high
confidence call here either as moisture is somewhat limited.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

High pressure will settle into the region Tuesday night...but
quickly move east during the morning/afternoon hours on Wednesday. A
nice gradient will set up over the region Wednesday night into
Thursday as a sfc low pressure system gets developed over the
Rockies. More about that later.

First off, an upper level system over northern Mexico, will
move into Texas on Wednesday afternoon. Models differ on what to do
with this feature beyond that though. The 00Z ECMWF weakens the
trough and actually takes it northwest of the region and the 12Z run
looks more like the GFS. The GFS takes it right across our region and
brings precipitation into the area as early as Wednesday night into
Thursday. Could see a stray rain shower sneak into the area by late
Wednesday night in SEMO, but think that any precip associated with
this system should be on Thursday, and be confined to the northwest
half of the area.

Meanwhile, another shortwave trough will be moving east out of the
Rockies in conjunction with the aforementioned sfc low. The low
moves into Kansas by 18Z Thursday. Differences arise with the
speed/progression of this sfc low/front...but these differences have
gotten smaller with the 12Z runs. The GFS brings the front into the
area on Friday, exiting the area Friday evening. The 00Z ECMWF was
much fast due to a strong upper level trough, and brought the front
into the area Thursday evening, exiting on Friday morning. But the
12Z shows a very similar solution to the GFS. Therefore, confidence
is higher that rain will be a good bet at least on Thursday
night/early Friday. Inserted some isolated thunderstorm as there
seems to be enough elevated instability to support it.

Pops for Friday and Saturday will be more challenging due to timing
issues with the models. Previous runs of the GFS/ECMWF indicated
high pressure building in for Friday night into Saturday providing
dry weather. However, the new 12Z ECMWF arrived with an entirely
different solution to what it had in its 00Z run, with continued
chances for precipitation until another trough pushes the front east
of the area. Will leave Friday night through Saturday night dry at
this time until better consistency arrives.

As far as temperatures, we should see a substantial rise in temps on
Wednesday as winds become southerly on the back side of the sfc
high. However, Tuesday night will be a cold one, as calm/clear
conditions provide excellent radiational cooling. Temperatures look
to get well down into the 20s Tuesday night. Therefore, even with a
stronger March sun, we may not be able to crack 50 degrees on
Wednesday despite decent warming aloft, except for maybe in SEMO. We
should reach well into the 50s on Thursday though. Highs on Friday
will be tricky due to the differences in frontal position. However,
it does not look like we will see any major cold air intrusions in
the wake of this front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

Bkn-ovc mid clouds will move across TAF sites overnight. A few
sprinkles are possible at KCGI/KPAH through 14z, but chances are
not enough to include in TAF and will not restrict vsbys. Winds
will continue from the north at 8 to 14 kts, finally decreasing to
4 to 9 kts after 22z. Mid clouds will move between 13z-17z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

 300 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY SPRING SNOWS OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

...RIDICULOUSLY COLD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MARCH!...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

OVERVIEW: FLOOD GATES TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR HAVE
OPENED...COURTESY OF DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
LATEST HIGH RES RUC GUIDANCE HAS -20C H8 BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA AT THIS EARLY HOUR...NEARLY 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (WAS ALREADY -18C ON
LOCAL 00Z SOUNDING). IMPRESSIVE COLD INDEED! REMNANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT/ASSOCIATED WINDS HAVE KEPT SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM
TANKING TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL GIVEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. STILL...CURRENT READINGS FALLING INTO
AND THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS COLD ENOUGH FOR SURE...AND ARE A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. DESPITE THESE
COLD CONDITIONS AND OPEN POCKETS OF GREAT LAKES WATER...DRY
AIRMASS AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE TAKEN THEIR COLLECTIVE TOLL
ON LAKE RESPONSE...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES UNDER NNW
FLOW STCU DECK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS AND
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.

FORECAST DETAILS: HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST CENTERS ON
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL NO DOUBT REMAIN ON THE FRIGID SIDE. LATE
MARCH DIURNAL TREND WILL TRY ITS BEST TO MODIFY THINGS A TOUCH
TODAY...BUT WILL LARGELY LOSE THE BATTLE GIVEN -20C H8 AIR OVERHEAD.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S PER MULTI-GUIDANCE BLENDS...WHICH FITS
EXPECTED BL THERMAL PROGS/DIURNAL RESPONSE. CLOUD/LAKE SNOW TRENDS A
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE INSISTS IN
SPIKE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY...ALTHOUGH BACKWARD RUN
TRAJECTORIES SHOW NO UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCE. COLD ENOUGH
AIRMASS AND ENOUGH OPEN WATER AREAS TO GET SOME DECENT LAKE
RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS ABOUT EXPECTED SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE HELP AND DEPTH OF CBL ON HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP
FLURRY MENTION FOR NOW OFF THE BIG WATERS...WITH EXPECTED DIURNAL
STCU RESPONSE UNDER COLD DOME LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
GENERATING FLURRIES AREA-WIDE (MUCH LIKE WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
YESTERDAY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA).

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS
AND DEEP DRYING ENDING LAKE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. ABOVE SHOULD RESULT IN A
REALLY GOOD NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE...AND WITH SUCH A COLD
AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE...REALLY LIKE THE COLDER END OF THE
GUIDANCE SPECTRUM (MAVMOS). WILL EVEN UNDERCUT THESE A TAD...
RESULTING IN LOWS BY SUNRISE MONDAY RANGING FROM ZERO TO TEN
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL HANG ON THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK (AT LEAST) AS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLIDES OVER
MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN SHIFTS EAST OF OUR STATE BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS
FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH AND TRACK THRU OUR CWA.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...AND MAIN LOW AND STRONGEST LIFT REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...CHANCE POPS ARE STILL CERTAINLY
WARRANTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECTATION OF LIGHT
QPF SHOULD RESULT IN NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND UP TO ANOTHER INCH ON TUESDAY. FROPA BY TUESDAY EVENING
SHOULD BRING ALL PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR BUILD INTO MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 20S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MONDAY NIGHT AND ONCE
AGAIN PLUMMETING BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL EXTEND INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL. OUR
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT MICHIGAN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HEAD NE INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE ORIGIN OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND NOW TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER THRU LWR MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY VS. THRU LAKE SUPERIOR PER PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL EXPECT WARMER
AIR AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...LIKELY TAPING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO STILL EXPECT THE POTENTIAL OF MIXED PRECIP AND DESCENT QPF
GIVEN THE PROJECTED THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES. POPS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A BIG
CHALLENGE...AND WILL REMAIN RATHER GENERIC FOR NOW. PRECIP SHOULD BE
GENERALLY ALL SNOW BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL COME TO
AN END BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS STILL MAINLY IN THE 20S...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S FOR THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

SOME MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES...BUT MOSTLY VFR.

COLD AIR IS ONCE AGAIN SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES
REGION...AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD NW
WINDS WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER...AND CIGS
WILL DIP INTO MVFR TERRITORY AT TIMES. COULD ALSO BE A FEW
FLURRIES/-SHSN IN THE TVC AREA.

NW WINDS THRU THE FORECAST. THESE WILL BE A BIT GUSTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS SATURDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...JZ







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

 304 AM MDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF BC WILL MAKE FOR INTERESTING WX
TODAY. INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROF IS INDUCING
PRESSURE FALLS IN CENTRAL MT...BUT SFC EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST ALL
THE WAY TO LIVINGSTON AS OF 08Z DUE TO THE LEE SIDE RIDGING...AND
THE FACT THAT THERE ARE FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS ID TOO. THE
LATTER IS AN INDICATION OF THE STRONG NORTHERLY JET DROPPING
ALONG THE PAC COAST. AS QG FORCING INCREASES WE ARE SEEING CIGS
GRADUALLY LOWER...AND WITH ECHOES ON BLX RADAR BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH BEFORE TOO
MUCH LONGER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EAST WINDS IN PLACE. MAIN
FORECAST ISSUES INVOLVE THIS CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED TRACK OF SFC
LOW...WHICH WILL DICTATE WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN IS LATER
TODAY.

NAM/SREF CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING...
WARMER SFC TEMPS AND LESS QPF LATER TODAY...WHEREAS THE GFS/ECMWF
AND UKMET BRING REINFORCING NORTHERLY WINDS INTO OUR CWA SOONER
AND ARE THUS COLDER AND WETTER. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS TO GO WITH
THE GFS HERE...INCLUDING THE PRESSURE FALLS WEST OF THE DIVIDE...
NORTHERLY JET ALONG THE PAC COAST AND DISTINCT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
COLDER TOPS THRU SOUTHERN BC. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE RAP ANALYZED
EASTERLY 700MB WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES WHICH ARE PUSHING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY. ALL OF THIS POINT
TOWARD A STRONGER UPSLOPE EVENT IN OUR WEST LATER TODAY...BUT MUST
STRESS THAT THIS FORECAST IS STILL NOT IN THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE.

FOLLOWING THE GFS...SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
IN OUR WEST...PER DEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...
FORCING ALOFT AND STRONG INSTABILITY. SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDING DOWN THE PAC COAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR ASCENT TO CONTINUE
THRU MUCH OF THE EVENING...AND THIS IS KEY TO ALLOW FOR THIS
EVENT TO LAST LONGER THAN A COUPLE HOURS. NORTH SLOPES OF THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS WILL BE FAVORED AS WILL LIVINGSTON AND THE
PARADISE VALLEY PER THE UNSTABLE NW FLOW AND LOCATION OF UPPER
JET. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE BANDED AND LOCALLY HEAVY...AND
THUS SNOW ACCUMS WILL VARY. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY
FOR 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS. WARM SFC TEMPS WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE W/ SPRING SNOW EVENTS... BUT THERE
WILL BE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL GIVEN THE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES. IF MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION COMES TOGETHER THAN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE MORE THAN 5 INCHES. IF THE NAM VERIFIES THEN
OUR FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE TOO HIGH.

ORIENTATION OF JET FAVORS OUR WEST MORE THAN SHERIDAN AND BIG
HORN COUNTIES...THOUGH STILL LOOKS LIKE 1-2 INCHES NEAR FORT SMITH
AND SHERIDAN AS TROF PASSES THRU LATER TODAY. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH...
INCLUDING BILLINGS...AS PCPN WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY
AND OROGRAPHICS.

SNOW WILL TURN LIGHTER OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD PERSIST AND PERHAPS
BECOME ENHANCED INTO MONDAY PER NEXT SURGE OF COLDER CANADIAN AIR
AND MODEST FORCING ALOFT...WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS FAVORABLE FOR
DENDRITIC GROWTH. HAVE RAISED POPS MONDAY IN OUR CENTRAL PARTS
WITH ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH EXPECTED.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY PER AT LEAST A SHORT
COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPING AND INCREASED MIXING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
WEST. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO THE UPPER 20S OR 30S. MONDAY WILL SEE
TEMPS FALL BACK TO THE 20S AS STRONG CANADIAN SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
WITH PRESSURES TO NEAR 1035MB AND AN AIRMASS THAT CAME OUT OF THE
NW CANADIAN ARCTIC.

BILLINGS COULD GET TO ITS SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD OF 98.7 INCHES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY PUSH 100 BY MONDAY OR MAYBE
A LITTLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

TUESDAY SEES WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING
COOLER AND NOT BRING AS QUITE A STRONG A WESTERLY WIND PUSH INTO
THE AREA AND ACTUALLY HOLD WINDS IN EASTERN MONTANA TO THE EAST.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO INDICATE A WEAKER WARMUP.

HEIGHTS FALL ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA AND
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED BY A COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND UPSLOPE. GFS AND ECWMF
DIFFER ON THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
OVER WYOMING SO POSITIONING OF BEST BAROCLINIC BAND IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. THAT WE WILL BE COLDER AND HAVE SOME SNOW IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE...THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IS NOT. PATTERN IS NOT AS DYNAMIC
FOR THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

BOTH MODELS BREAK DOWN THE PATTERN FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES THE COLD AIR OUT. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A DRAMATIC
WARMUP SO ONLY 50S EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT IS NOT ANTICYCLONIC FOR
VERY LONG SO PRECIPITATION INTO THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS GOOD. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND KLVM BY 1600UTC
INCLUDING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LIKE KBIL AND KSHR AFTER 1800UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON FOR KBIL...KSHR AND KLVM WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR AFTER 2200UTC. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT LESS PRECIPITATION FOR KMLS BUT PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032 018/027 016/043 030/039 025/041 029/048 035/053
    7/S 46/S    41/B    14/J    44/J    22/W    21/B
LVM 037 015/033 014/048 031/046 025/042 027/046 033/051
    9/S 83/S    31/B    25/W    55/J    32/W    22/W
HDN 034 016/027 013/045 027/041 025/043 028/049 033/055
    7/S 46/S    41/B    13/W    43/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 032 016/026 011/041 026/043 025/040 027/047 033/054
    7/S 33/S    11/B    12/W    22/J    22/W    11/B
4BQ 036 016/027 011/042 028/045 026/043 029/048 036/056
    6/S 54/S    21/B    12/W    32/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 029 015/025 006/037 022/044 022/039 024/044 031/052
    6/S 32/S    01/B    12/W    22/J    22/W    11/B
SHR 038 016/030 013/047 029/049 025/043 025/047 030/053
    6/W 65/S    41/B    14/W    55/J    32/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
      MDT TONIGHT FOR ZONES 56-64>66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 353 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
A CHILLY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE COAST...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE HIGH MIGRATES
OFFSHORE NEAR BERMUDA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA WILL PRESS SE
INTO THE REGION TODAY. A LARGE RANGE IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED AS A RESULT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR VERY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER...TO THE UPPER 70S MAYBE EVEN 80 ACROSS
OUR SC INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOW-LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE MAY BECOME STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ALIGNMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND THE SURFACE FRONT...BOTH
OF WHICH WILL INTERACT NEAR THE COAST. LOW-LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES
OF W-NW TODAY WILL KEEP THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES FASTENED NEAR THE
COAST...AND IT IS HERE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC OMEGA THAT WE HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
TSTM...FAVORED MIDDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT IN POST FRONTAL FLOW MAY BRING LINGERING
STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH EVENING WITH TAPERING PCPN LATE AS DRY MID
LEVEL AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE NW.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SEVERELY REDUCED
VSBYS THROUGH 800 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TWO CAMPS THIS
MORNING WITH THE GFS BEING CONSISTENT WITH A DECENT RAIN EVENT FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM CONTINUES WITH A MORE SOUTH AND
EAST DEPICTION. WILL CONTINUE TO OPT FOR THE FORMER SOLUTION WHICH
MATCHES CONSISTENCY/CONTINUITY BETTER. INTERESTING TO NOTE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS ALMOST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS.

POPS HAVE BEEN FINE TUNED TO MATCH THE MORE ROBUST GFS AND ADJACENT
OFFICES. I HAVE ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TUESDAY
AS ONLY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE VIA THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
THE IMPETUS FOR RAINFALL. STILL CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LITTLE
SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN INITIALLY BUT THE BEST LIFT SEEMS TO
OCCUR A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING. WE REALLY NEED TO THREAD THE
NEEDLE WITH PRE DAWN LOWS SANS ANY DAYTIME WARMING TO SEE SNOW.

FINALLY I HAVE RAISED WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED PRECLUDING A MORE DRAMATIC DROP.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE
WITH A COUPLE OF DRY ALBEIT...COLD DAYS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THE NUMBERS MAINLY FOCUSING ON
LOWS BOTH DAYS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AGRICULTURE COMMUNITY. I
HAVE TRIED TO FIND WAYS TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP FOR
THURSDAY MORNING BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVERHEAD...AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN...PW IS DOWN TO 0.20 INCHES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S APPEAR LIKELY. IN FACT I HAVE DROPPED THE FORECAST LOWS ABOUT
A DEGREE FOR THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG MARCH SUN SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH 50 OR CLOSE WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO FEATURE LOWER CHANCE POPS WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VSBYS WILL BE A CONCERN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
CLEARING SKIES AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. TIMING
THE ONSET WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE...AS CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED
OVER THE COASTAL TERMS LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. STILL AGREE
WITH THE HRRR THAT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CWA AS WE GET CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. IN PARTICULAR...DEWPOINTS AROUND
60 DEG ON THE COAST MEAN THAT ONCE CONDITIONS BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
AND CALM...VSBYS SHOULD DROP FAIRLY RAPIDLY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA LATER
THIS MORNING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AFTER 18Z FROM WEST TO EAST...ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS WITH SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW BENEATH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE LOW CIGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SHORT-LIVED...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TERMS BY 06Z
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO OUR CWA BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REACH 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AND AN
ADVISORY WILL EXTEND FROM 6PM THIS EVENING TO MIDDAY MONDAY. THE
SEA SPECTRUM WILL CONSIST OF ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 12 SECONDS
AND S WAVES EVERY 5-6 SECONDS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF MORNING...WITH
RAMPING UP OF WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.



SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST IN A
RANGE OF 20-25 KNOTS BUT WILL STEADILY DROP THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THE DIRECTION WILL ALSO VEER
TO THE EAST. THE EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY TO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES AND WITH
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS VIA THE GFS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KNOTS
THROUGH 850MB...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A GALE WARNING ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING GUSTS. CERTAINLY A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE WINDS WITH THE
SAVING GRACE FOR THE LATER TIMES ALLOWING THE HIGHEST VALUES TO BE
CONCENTRATED MORE OFFSHORE.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WIND AND SUBSEQUENTLY SEAS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE SLOWLY WEDNESDAY...MORE APPRECIABLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HEADLINES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
BE REMOVED BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WINDS
DIMINISH TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY THURSDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS FOLLOW IN SHORT ORDER TO 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
     099-105>110.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MJC/BJR








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 204 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
A CHILLY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE COAST...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE HIGH MIGRATES
OFFSHORE NEAR BERMUDA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED TO JUST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO LATE THIS EVE...NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST AND FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS SKIES CONTINUE TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY
CLEAR...EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO SETTLE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM...MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW AND N AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE HAS
BEEN IMPRESSIVE. HELPED ALONG BY THE PASSAGE OF A SEABREEZE...
DEWPOINTS HAVE SURGED TO NEAR 60 DEGREES...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND UP ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST.
ENHANCED BY SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY...CONVECTION HAS
NOT ONLY BLOSSOMED BUT BEEN PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HORRY
COUNTY AND TRAILING BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE. CELLS WERE
TRAINING FOR A GOOD WHILE AND MAY HAVE LAID DOWN AS MUCH AS AN INCH
OF RAIN IN SOME COMMUNITIES PER RADAR ESTIMATES. THIS CONVECTION WAS
WORKING ITS WAY TO THE NE AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY
AHEAD OF THIS LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE RATHER SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED
THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND TAKE IT UP ALONG THE
COAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVE HOURS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SLIPPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS AND ON SUN. WIND FIELDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND
GIVEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE SURGED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT
FOG AND OR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY BECOME AT LEAST
LOCALLY DENSE GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OR IS EXPECTED
THIS EVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG INTO SUN MORNING.

CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT AND LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD BE MOST COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WE WILL MANAGE ONE LAST DAY OF SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPS ON SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. BUT COME THROUGH IT WILL AND THE ENSUING
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE TREMENDOUS...OUR MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS OF 8C
FALLING TO -4 TO -8C BY 12Z MONDAY (SOUTH TO NORTH). MOISTURE FLUX
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
GENERALLY COME FOLLOWING FROPA IN THE UNDERCUTTING BUT ALSO BE
RATHER SHORT-LIVED SINCE THE COLUMN DRIES OUT DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE NEW AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S
FOR THE FIRST TIME DURING THE RECENTLY STARTED OFFICIAL GROWING
SEASON...BUT A CONTINUED NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP THINGS MIXED
WELL ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZE. FROST MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
THOUGH. MONDAY BRINGS HIGH TEMPS SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EVEN
THOUGH THE CAA MERCIFULLY SHUTS DOWN. AN INTERESTING YET UNCERTAIN
ASPECT OF THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE SPEED AT WHICH
MOISTURE MANAGES TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER FLORIDA...THE VERY SAME LOW THAT MAY END UP BEING AN IMPRESSIVE
BOMB OFF NORTHEAST COAST. THIS IS OF RELATIVELY HEIGHTENED
IMPORTANCE SINCE THERMAL PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SOME WINTRY BUT NON
ACCUMULATING PRECIP...ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS. ADDITIONALLY THE WRF SUPPRESSES EVERYTHING TO OUR SOUTH.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE IN PLACE THIS SOLUTION APPEARS MUCH
MORE APPEALING. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY HAVE NOT REMOVED THE SNOW
BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED DURING THE PERIOD. ON TUE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF SAVANNAH IS LIFTED NORTHEAST BY MID LEVEL TROUGH. DEEP DRY
AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST TUE BRINGING AN END TO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP BY MIDDAY. THE 5H TROUGH EVENTUALLY BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
BUT NOT UNTIL THE LOW IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. EXITING DEEPENING
LOW AND BUILDING ARCTIC HIGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WILL PRODUCE STRONG COLD ADVECTION TUE NIGHT. 850
TEMPS DROP CLOSE TO -10C BY WED MORNING...ENSURING LOWS WELL BELOW
CLIMO TUE NIGHT DESPITE STRONG MIXING.

COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS DURING WED AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS
EAST. LATE MARCH SUNSHINE WILL HELP OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD
ADVECTION BUT HIGHS WILL STILL END UP BELOW CLIMO...BY AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES. HIGHS WED MAY NOT REACH 50 IN MOST AREAS! ALTHOUGH WED
NIGHT WILL NOT BE A PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IT WILL BE
CLOSE. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ARE LIKELY IN MOST AREAS WITH INLAND
AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 20S. AIR MASS MODIFIES THU/THU NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. HIGHS
WILL STILL RUN BELOW CLIMO...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW...WITH LOWS
RUNNING CLOSE TO CLIMO.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CAROLINAS DURING SAT. WILL MAINTAIN
SILENT POP SAT FOR CONVECTION WITH FROPA. TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VSBYS WILL BE A CONCERN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
CLEARING SKIES AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. TIMING
THE ONSET WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE...AS CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED
OVER THE COASTAL TERMS LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. STILL AGREE
WITH THE HRRR THAT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CWA AS WE GET CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. IN PARTICULAR...DEWPOINTS AROUND
60 DEG ON THE COAST MEAN THAT ONCE CONDITIONS BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
AND CALM...VSBYS SHOULD DROP FAIRLY RAPIDLY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA LATER
THIS MORNING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AFTER 18Z FROM WEST TO EAST...ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS WITH SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW BENEATH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE LOW CIGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SHORT-LIVED...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TERMS BY 06Z
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO OUR CWA BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE FEAR WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE E. ELSEWHERE...ANY SHOWERS WERE VERY ISOLATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 700 PM...SURGE OF MOISTURE HAS WORKED
ITS WAY UP THE COAST AND BEEN ENHANCED BY THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH PUSHED WELL INLAND TODAY. AS A RESULT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...MAINLY N OF BALD HEAD ISLAND LATER THIS EVE.
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS NEAR AND ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE
N AND NW TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS DURING SUN. S TO
SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND NNW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. NO
APPRECIABLE GRADIENT OR SURGE IS EXPECTED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS
SLACK AND THUS WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BE A FUNCTION MAINLY OF AN EASTERLY 10 SECOND SWELL.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ENSUING WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS WILL BUILD
SEAS AND STEEPEN WAVE FACES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEEMS POSSIBLE
BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND WHICH
ZONES WILL MEET CRITERIA TO PRECLUDE ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AFTER
COLLAB WITH ADJACENT WFOS. THE NE FLOW WILL REMAIN FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE PERIOD AS A VERY WINTRY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SETTLES IN EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT MODERATELY STRONG
ACROSS THE WATERS AND MANY ZONES WILL BE CLOSE TO SCEC/ADVISORY
CUTOFFS FOR BOTH WIND AND SEAS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AT SOME
POINT TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS DEPARTING LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN. GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS BECOMES PINCHED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW APPROACHING 30 KT
TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS WED AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE DROPPING
TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY VEERS TO
NORTHEAST WED NIGHT AND SPEEDS DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT AS THE CENTER OF
THE ELONGATED HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN NC/VA. ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS THU AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. WEAK GRADIENT WILL
KEEP SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE 4 TO 6
FT SEAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. REDUCTION IN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EQUATE TO
SEAS DROPPING TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR WED AND 2 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR/MJC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 115 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WERE
STILL LIGHT WEST AT RONDEAU ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE ERIE AT 9 PM
SO THE FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME. UPDATED THE HOURLY FORECAST
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT USING THE HRRR HOURLY TEMPERATURES WHICH
DEPICTED THE MILD TEMPS EARLY TONIGHT THEN A RELATIVELY QUICK DROP
IN TEMPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE ARCTIC AIR FILTERS
IN. RECALCULATED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND CAME UP WITH MOSTLY UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 IN THE
NORTH AND LOWER/MID 20S IN THE SOUTH. TEMPS CAN PROBABLY KEEP
DROPPING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EVEN AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...THE
ARCTIC AIR IS IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE IN THE SEASON.

A NICE SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE CROSSING THE MIDWEST WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA WITH THE FLOW OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION SO BROKEN CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT MINIMUM.
THE THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW PA AND THEN DIMINISH AS THE DRY AIR FINALLY
WINS OUT. THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE IT`S WAY TO
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY CAUSE SKIES TO
CLEAR. MONDAY WILL BE COLD BUT DRY. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SET TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. TOUGH TO TELL HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE
SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA. SOME
OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING A REFLECTION OF THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE. HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP TO LIKELY ALL AREAS ON
TUESDAY. IT`S LOOKING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS GOING
TO OCCUR FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE SLOWED THE
ONSET DOWN JUST A TAD FROM OUR PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE SNOW SHOULD
END QUICKLY LATE TUESDAY AS THE WAVE ALOFT SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST
COAST. HAVE TRENDED TO THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. THE NAM MOS JUST SEEMS TOO COOL MOST OF THE TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM ON THE
EAST COAST CONTINUES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR THAT
WAS DRAWN SOUTHWARD WILL REMAIN AND WILL HAVE ANOTHER WELL BELOW
NORMAL DAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
EAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTHWARD THURSDAY MORNING AND AT THIS POINT A GOOD SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW WILL RESULT AND WILL FINALLY SEE TEMPERATURES REACH NORMAL.
OVERALL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF INITIAL
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT QUESTIONABLE...BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL
BE FOR FRIDAY. THE COOL AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS MINIMAL AND ALREADY
UPSTREAM THE RIDGE IS SET TO BUILD OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT WILL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING
OVER THE LAKE. THE 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO DIP TO -14C BY
DAYBREAK. AIRMASS IS VERY DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS THIS MORNING.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCU DECK OF 2K-4K FT
THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY THEN
NON VFR LIKELY ON TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR MONDAY. WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED TO SOME
DEGREE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...JOINING FORCES ON THE EAST COAST
FOR WEDNESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW FOLLOWED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A 10-20
KNOT FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY. FOR ICE
PURPOSES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 130 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...DEPARTING DURING
SUNDAY EVENING. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ENTRENCHED MONDAY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY...THEN NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST 00Z/8PM WRF-ARW AND HRRR GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AN 11-12Z/7AM-8AM ARRIVAL IN THE FAR WEST
IS LOOKING MORE PROBABLE ACCORDING TO THIS GUIDANCE. DID NOT WANT
DISREGARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SELECTED A MIDPOINT BETWEEN
THE OLD AND NEW WITH A 09-10Z/5AM-6AM ARRIVAL IN THE FAR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS.

AS OF 825 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
EVENING REMAINS SLOW TO MOVE EAST BUT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
PIEDMONT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTRW BRIEF CLEARING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE TO THE SW. LATEST GUIDANCE A BIT FASTER PER JET ALOFT IN
PUSHING CLOUDS BACK IN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY QUICKER
ONSET OF PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY DESPITE INITIAL DRY AIR OFF EVENING
RAOBS. THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE CLOUDS LATE AND ARRIVAL
OF PRECIP OVER THE WEST JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MID MORNING IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER COLD ADVECTION LAGGING
THE FRONT A BIT AND LIKELY WONT SEE MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR WORK
INTO THE SE UNTIL SUNDAY. THIS PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO THE
EARLIER WARMER MAV MOS SO ADJUSTED CLOSER TO THOSE VALUES ESPCLY
SOUTH AND EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...

COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM DC TO WRN NC WILL SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH MID/HIGH LVL MOISTURE
SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE STREAMING STREAMING
EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS WILL BE PASSING BY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOWING
MOST OF THE PRECIP STAYING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 ACROSS THE
WEST AND LIFTING TOWARD LYH SUNDAY BEFORE NOON. LEANED TOWARD THE
12Z ECMWF/CMC. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS MOST PRECIP WILL BE RAIN WITH
SOME SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT. COLD AIR CHASES THE PRECIP SO
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST
WITH NO MORE THAN A SLUSHY INCH EXPECTED.

AFTER WARM DAY TODAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY THE AIR SUNDAY WILL RETURN TO
MORE LIKE EARLY FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S...LOWER 40S WEST TO NEAR 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENTLY KEEPING TUESDAY`S SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFF THE
COAST...SUCH THAT THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE REGION IS FROM THE WEAKER
LOW PRESSURE ASSOC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT ARRIVES
TUESDAY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. NOW...THE PRECIP ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL SYSTEM IS EVEN BEING PUSHED SE OF THE VA/NC PIEDMONT.
TYPICALLY...OUR REGION DOESN`T DO AS WELL AS MODEL QPF SUGGESTS
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM ASSOC WITH A COASTAL. IN ADDITION...IF ANY
OF THE QPF ARRIVES DURING THE DAY...NOT ONLY WILL RAIN MIX
IN...BUT ALSO SNOW MAY MELT WHEN IT MAKES CONTACT WITH THE GROUND.
ALSO...DON`T SEE SNOWFALL RATES BEING FAST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
MARCH INSOLATION/WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...ANY SNOW MAY ONLY
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 2500 FEET. IF SOME PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE MORE EFFICIENTLY...BUT
WE`RE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 0.10" LIQUID AT THE MOST IN THE WEST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CAN STILL CHANGE AND COME FURTHER
WEST...ALTHOUGH THIS DOESN`T SEEM LIKELY CONSIDERING CURRENT
CONSENSUS AND TRENDS. WE`LL SEE. THUS AT THIS POINT...PERHAPS AN
ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SE WEST
VA...EXTREME SW VA AND NW NC.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SE WEST VA AND PERHAPS
INTO NW NC TUESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH H7 MOISTURE SEEMS TO MOVE OUT
BY 6Z WED WHICH WOULD ONLY LEAVE A 6HR PERIOD FOR ANY UPSLOPE
EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

LOOKING LIKE WINTER`S LAST GASP...BUT AN IMPRESSIVE ONE AT THAT
WITH WEDNESDAY VERY COLD...AND THEN STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA WED NIGHT...WITH MANY SPOTS DECOUPLING AND
FALLING POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR
MINS. UPPER TROUGH RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT AND TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY AS
IS COMMONPLACE FOR LATE MARCH. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR SATURDAY. AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM ISN`T IMPRESSIVE AT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE PATTERN THROUGH 12Z/7AM SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...A QUICK MOVING
DISTURBANCE WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA AN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS EAST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIGE. BY 19Z/3PM...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED
AND CIGS WILL HAVE IMPROVED TO LOW END VFR...AND WINDS WILL START
TO GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BY SUNDAY
EVENING...GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED UPSLOPE VFR CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 5000
FT MSL.

AS OF 640 PM EDT SATURDAY...

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... EXPECT CLEARING SUNDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUED VFR
ON MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING WINTRY WEATHER TUESDAY
WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS
A STORM TRACK INCREASINGLY OFF THE COAST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
DURATION AND AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE IFR MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AT LWB/BLF. MODELS BRING HIGH PRESSURE IN BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH SW FLOW INCREASING BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
NC COAST AND THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VFR WED AFTN-THU.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...DS/JH/NF/RAB/WP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 1239 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...DEPARTING DURING
SUNDAY EVENING. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ENTRENCHED MONDAY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY...THEN NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST 00Z/8PM WRF-ARW AND HRRR GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AN 11-12Z/7AM-8AM ARRIVAL IN THE FAR WEST
IS LOOKING MORE PROBABLE ACCORDING TO THIS GUIDANCE. DID NOT WANT
DISREGARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SELECTED A MIDPOINT BETWEEN
THE OLD AND NEW WITH A 09-10Z/5AM-6AM ARRIVAL IN THE FAR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS.

AS OF 825 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
EVENING REMAINS SLOW TO MOVE EAST BUT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
PIEDMONT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTRW BRIEF CLEARING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE TO THE SW. LATEST GUIDANCE A BIT FASTER PER JET ALOFT IN
PUSHING CLOUDS BACK IN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY QUICKER
ONSET OF PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY DESPITE INITIAL DRY AIR OFF EVENING
RAOBS. THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE CLOUDS LATE AND ARRIVAL
OF PRECIP OVER THE WEST JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE BY MID MORNING IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER COLD ADVECTION LAGGING
THE FRONT A BIT AND LIKELY WONT SEE MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR WORK
INTO THE SE UNTIL SUNDAY. THIS PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO THE
EARLIER WARMER MAV MOS SO ADJUSTED CLOSER TO THOSE VALUES ESPCLY
SOUTH AND EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...

COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM DC TO WRN NC WILL SLIDE SE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH MID/HIGH LVL MOISTURE
SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE STREAMING STREAMING
EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS WILL BE PASSING BY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOWING
MOST OF THE PRECIP STAYING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 ACROSS THE
WEST AND LIFTING TOWARD LYH SUNDAY BEFORE NOON. LEANED TOWARD THE
12Z ECMWF/CMC. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS MOST PRECIP WILL BE RAIN WITH
SOME SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT. COLD AIR CHASES THE PRECIP SO
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST
WITH NO MORE THAN A SLUSHY INCH EXPECTED.

AFTER WARM DAY TODAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY THE AIR SUNDAY WILL RETURN TO
MORE LIKE EARLY FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S...LOWER 40S WEST TO NEAR 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENTLY KEEPING TUESDAY`S SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFF THE
COAST...SUCH THAT THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE REGION IS FROM THE WEAKER
LOW PRESSURE ASSOC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT ARRIVES
TUESDAY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. NOW...THE PRECIP ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL SYSTEM IS EVEN BEING PUSHED SE OF THE VA/NC PIEDMONT.
TYPICALLY...OUR REGION DOESN`T DO AS WELL AS MODEL QPF SUGGESTS
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM ASSOC WITH A COASTAL. IN ADDITION...IF ANY
OF THE QPF ARRIVES DURING THE DAY...NOT ONLY WILL RAIN MIX
IN...BUT ALSO SNOW MAY MELT WHEN IT MAKES CONTACT WITH THE GROUND.
ALSO...DON`T SEE SNOWFALL RATES BEING FAST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
MARCH INSOLATION/WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...ANY SNOW MAY ONLY
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 2500 FEET. IF SOME PRECIP ARRIVES QUICKLY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE MORE EFFICIENTLY...BUT
WE`RE ONLY TALKING ABOUT 0.10" LIQUID AT THE MOST IN THE WEST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CAN STILL CHANGE AND COME FURTHER
WEST...ALTHOUGH THIS DOESN`T SEEM LIKELY CONSIDERING CURRENT
CONSENSUS AND TRENDS. WE`LL SEE. THUS AT THIS POINT...PERHAPS AN
ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SE WEST
VA...EXTREME SW VA AND NW NC.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SE WEST VA AND PERHAPS
INTO NW NC TUESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH H7 MOISTURE SEEMS TO MOVE OUT
BY 6Z WED WHICH WOULD ONLY LEAVE A 6HR PERIOD FOR ANY UPSLOPE
EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

LOOKING LIKE WINTER`S LAST GASP...BUT AN IMPRESSIVE ONE AT THAT
WITH WEDNESDAY VERY COLD...AND THEN STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA WED NIGHT...WITH MANY SPOTS DECOUPLING AND
FALLING POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR
MINS. UPPER TROUGH RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT AND TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY AS
IS COMMONPLACE FOR LATE MARCH. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR SATURDAY. AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM ISN`T IMPRESSIVE AT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND WINDS
SUBSIDE. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE A RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING BY DAYBREAK FROM SW TO NE AS ANOTHER WAVE
MOVES UP ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONT TO THE SOUTH.

THIS WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO WARRANT LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AT ALL SITES MIXED WITH SNOW
AT BLF/LWB. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR ALTHOUGH THINK BCB/DAN/BLF COULD
GET ENOUGH MOISTURE TO LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR WITH PERHAPS BRIEF IFR
AT BLF IF PRECIP ENDS UP BEING MORE SNOW THAN RAIN EARLY SUNDAY.
CEILINGS LOOK TO DROP INTO HIGH END MVFR LEVELS MOST SITES OUTSIDE
OF LWB AND POSSIBLY LYH WHERE PREDOMINANT VFR CLOUD BASES SHOULD
PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... EXPECT CLEARING SUNDAY EVENING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUED VFR
ON MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING WINTRY WEATHER TUESDAY
WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS
A STORM TRACK INCREASINGLY OFF THE COAST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
DURATION AND AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE IFR MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AT LWB/BLF. MODELS BRING HIGH PRESSURE IN BY WED AFTERNOON
WITH SW FLOW INCREASING BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
NC COAST AND THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT VFR WED AFTN-THU.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/NF/RAB/WP





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 947 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATE MONDAY AND THEN TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST,
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEEMS AS THOUGH THE LATEST RAP/SREF/HRRR HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS SW
VIRGINA AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID HAVE INCREASED POPS EVEN
FURTHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES INTO THE LIKELY
SPECTRUM AND SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE BY AN HOUR
OR SO. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT SO ONLY MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM.

OTHERWISE, THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER
THAN THE WRF-NMMB. UP IN NORTHERN CANADA AND ALASKA, NOT THAT
THEIR 00Z SOLUTION OUTCOMES WERE COLLABORATIVE, THE GFS AND ECMWF
INITIALIZATIONS WERE CLOSE. THE REX HIGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER
ALASKA THAN INITIALIZED AND THE IMPLICATION WOULD BE THAT THE LAST
PIECE OF THE PUZZLE, THE SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST TERRITORY
AND NUNAVUT BORDER IS COMING IN SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN INITIALIZED.
THE NEXT SOUNDING RUN SHOULD FINALLY HAVE A BETTER CAPTURE AND
LAND BASED RAOB SAMPLING OF THIS FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME THE GFS
LOOKED SLIGHTLY WARMER AND BETTER AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ITS
INITIALIZATION AND WAS USED MORE SO TODAY.

SECONDARY FRONT WAS CLEARLY SHOWING ON THE 925MB AND 850MB ANALYSES
ALONG THE MI AND CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SECOND BOUNDARY HAS OPENED
THE DOOR FOR POPS SOUTH AS WAVES ARE FORMING ON THE FRONT AND THE
FRONT ITSELF IS STALLING. THE FORCING THAT THERE IS WITHIN OUR CWA
IS EXTREMELY HI BASED (FGEN FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CENTERED
AROUND 600MB) WITH NO FCST MID LEVEL WAA THIS FAR NORTH. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR BELOW IT. THE FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS OUTPACING
THE MOISTURE AND THE MOISTURE IS OUTPACING THE DPVA. THE NET RESULT
IS NOT MUCH PCPN IN OUR CWA, EVEN THOUGH MEASURABLE HAS TRENDED
NORTHWARD FROM LAST NIGHT.

LOOKING AT MODELING VERIFICATION, IN SPITE OF THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
INITIALIZATION, THE WRF-NMMB VERIFIED THE BEST AT 06Z WITH ITS QPF
VS REALITY IN THE LOWER MS VLY. OUR MEASURABLE POPS ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE OP WRF-NMMB AND RAP COMBO, GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE .05"
ISOHYET ON THE GLOBAL MODELS. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE ALREADY TOO LOW,
WRF-NMMB 2M TEMPS NOT USED AND WE SIDED WITH THE WARMER GFS MAV
GUIDANCE TODAY. GIVEN THIS AND THE LIGHT PCPN INTENSITY, PTYPE SOUTH
ALL RAIN. WE DID KEEP THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES FAR NW AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM STAT GUIDANCE, BUT TODAY WE ARE
CONCERNED THAT MAYBE CLOUDINESS WILL ASSIST AND WE DID NOT GO ABOVE
GFS MOS. CWA IN A SEMI-COLISH SPOT WRT PRESSURE GRADIENT, SO NOT A
WINDY DAY AS YESTERDAY BECAME ONCE THE SUN BROKE OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THRU 23Z SOUTH IN LINE WITH LATEST RAP.
THEN AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMES THRU, WE SHOULD HAVE A WIND
PICK-UP DURING THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE WRF-NMMB
STARTS TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. ATTM WHILE THERE IS SOME CAA SC, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SOLID. WE CONTINUE TO SIDE CLOSER TO THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS AND
ECMWF SKY SOLUTIONS. MIN TEMPS A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND. GIVEN THE CAA
AND THE THERMAL TROF PEAKING AT 12Z, EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER THAN
USUAL MORNING MIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE HIGHS
MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 20S FAR NORTH. THESE READINGS ARE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID/LATE MARCH. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME SUB-ZERO DEW
POINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BOMB OFF
THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM
THE COAST FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND COMBINE WITH ENERGY
CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW) TUE-WED WITH TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. THESE TOTALS ALIGN WITH THE LATEST WWD
TOTALS. SEVERAL FACTORS COULD CREATE DIFFERENT TOTALS...NAMELY THE
STORM DEVELOPING SOONER OR COMING CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST. PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FCSTS FOR THE LATEST. THE LATEST MODELS STILL
SHOW THE HEAVIEST PCPN MOVING JUST EAST OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT...WITH THE ERN PART OF NJ GETTING THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY
PCPN FOR 6-8 HRS.

COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WED/WED NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S WED WITH W/NW WINDS GUSTING TO
30-35 MPH AT TIMES. TH WINDS SUBSIDE LATER WED NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS FAR
NORTH.

THU/THU NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THEN
MOVES EAST. MODERATING TEMPERATURES THU...BUT STILL SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MOSTLY LOW 40S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 40S
SOUTH. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

FRI THRU SAT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SRN CANADA. A SRLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR ARRIVES
FRI WITH INCREASING CHC FOR SHOWERS FRI NIGHT/SAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S BOTH FRI AND
SAT.

SUN...A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER FORESEEN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PLANS FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE SHOULD CONTINUE VFR FORECASTS.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE AT KACY AND KMIV AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME MVFR
CIGS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

THIS MORNING VFR CIG FORECAST TO LOWER MORE COMFORTABLY INTO AC
LEVEL. A STRATOCU VFR CIG POSSIBLE AT KABE AND KRDG EARLY. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS/TERMINALS SOUTHEAST WE
HAVE KEPT A STRATOCU LEVEL VFR CIG IN THE TAFS. PCPN ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT MIGHT MAKE IT TO KACY AND KMIV, BUT CONFIDENCE AND
INHERENT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO STILL INCLUDE. FARTHER NORTHWEST
CONTINUED HIGHER BASED VFR CIG. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, SECONDARY CFP MOVES THROUGH. WINDS VEER MORE TO THE
NORTH WITH SIMILAR TO AFTERNOON SUSTAINED SPEEDS, BUT GUSTS
REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS. VFR STRATOCU CIG MIGHT LINGER AT KMIV
AND KACY, REST OF TERMINALS WE ARE NOT FORECASTING A CIG.

INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS MIGHT CONTINUE AT WINDIER
TERMINALS, BUT SKIES BY THEN SHOULD BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR.


OUTLOOK...
MON/MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUE THRU WED MORNING...MOSTLY IFR/MVFR WITH LOW CIGS/SNOW/GUSTY WINDS.
LATER WED INTO THU...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY. BUT, WE ARE
EXPECTING THEM TO INCREASE TONIGHT AFTER THE CDFNTL PASSAGE
AND THERE IS BETTER MIXING AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA WATERS.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
AREA WATERS. THE START TIME IS TO THE CATCH THE NORTHERN AREA WATERS
WIND UPTICK FIRST. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE MWW. THERE IS ALSO THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
MON NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE-WED...WINDS INCREASE STEADILY TUE WILL PROBABLY REACH GALE
CRITERIA BY TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WED.
WED NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE WED
NIGHT.
THU/THU NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE LATE
THU NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE LATEST ESTOFS STORM SURGE TIDE GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONDITIONS...BUT IT DOES COME CLOSE. THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TUESDAY IS THE ONE THE COME CLOSEST TO
FLOODING. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE THAT THE ESTOFS IS BASED
ON IS NOT THE FCST THAT WE ARE GOING WITH...SINCE WE HAVE TENDED
TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE LOW A BIT CLOSER TO
THE SHORE...SO THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN FOR A
WHILE...SO COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES ARE ADVISED TO LOOK FOR UPDATES
IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS A CLOSER TO THE COAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE
THE RISK OF GREATER COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL AT OUR CLIMO BIG 4:

                  MARCH 25TH      MARCH 26TH
ATLANTIC CITY     2.0 IN 2013     0.1 IN 2001
PHILADELPHIA      1.7 IN 1965     0.8 IN 2001
WILMINGTON        1.2 IN 1965     0.7 IN 2001
ALLENTOWN         1.5 IN 1934     2.0 IN 1933

AS A POINT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL REFERENCE. PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD
TEN 3 INCH OR GREATER SNOW EVENTS AFTER MARCH 24TH.
THE LAST OCCURRED ON MARCH 31ST TO APRIL 1ST OF 1997 AS
3.9 INCHES FELL. THE GREATEST WAS 19.4 INCHES ON APRIL
3RD AND 4TH OF 1915.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 645 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATE MONDAY AND THEN TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST,
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ESTF UPDATE MAINLY TO ADJUST GRIDS TO CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS. WE DID ADJUST POPS UPWARD IN OUR FAR SRN CWA BASED ON THE
LATEST 06Z GFS AND WRF-NMMB. MEASURABLE POPS NOW A BLEND OF THE
LATEST RAP AND THE FORMER MODELS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MEASURABLE
WITH THE LATTER MODELS IS STILL NOT VERIFYING.

THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
WRF-NMMB. UP IN NORTHERN CANADA AND ALASKA, NOT THAT THEIR 00Z
SOLUTION OUTCOMES WERE COLLABORATIVE, THE GFS AND ECMWF
INITIALIZATIONS WERE CLOSE. THE REX HIGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER
ALASKA THAN INITIALIZED AND THE IMPLICATION WOULD BE THAT THE LAST
PIECE OF THE PUZZLE, THE SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST TERRITORY AND
NUNAVUT BORDER IS COMING IN SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN INITIALIZED. THE
NEXT SOUNDING RUN SHOULD FINALLY HAVE A BETTER CAPTURE AND LAND
BASED RAOB SAMPLING OF THIS FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME THE GFS LOOKED
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND BETTER AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ITS
INITIALIZATION AND WAS USED MORE SO TODAY.

SECONDARY FRONT WAS CLEARLY SHOWING ON THE 925MB AND 850MB ANALYSES
ALONG THE MI AND CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SECOND BOUNDARY HAS OPENED
THE DOOR FOR POPS SOUTH AS WAVES ARE FORMING ON THE FRONT AND THE
FRONT ITSELF IS STALLING. THE FORCING THAT THERE IS WITHIN OUR CWA
IS EXTREMELY HI BASED (FGEN FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CENTERED
AROUND 600MB) WITH NO FCST MID LEVEL WAA THIS FAR NORTH. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR BELOW IT. THE FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS OUTPACING
THE MOISTURE AND THE MOISTURE IS OUTPACING THE DPVA. THE NET RESULT
IS NOT MUCH PCPN IN OUR CWA, EVEN THOUGH MEASURABLE HAS TRENDED
NORTHWARD FROM LAST NIGHT.

LOOKING AT MODELING VERIFICATION, IN SPITE OF THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
INITIALIZATION, THE WRF-NMMB VERIFIED THE BEST AT 06Z WITH ITS QPF
VS REALITY IN THE LOWER MS VLY. OUR MEASURABLE POPS ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE OP WRF-NMMB AND RAP COMBO, GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE .05"
ISOHYET ON THE GLOBAL MODELS. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE ALREADY TOO LOW,
WRF-NMMB 2M TEMPS NOT USED AND WE SIDED WITH THE WARMER GFS MAV
GUIDANCE TODAY. GIVEN THIS AND THE LIGHT PCPN INTENSITY, PTYPE SOUTH
ALL RAIN. WE DID KEEP THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES FAR NW AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM STAT GUIDANCE, BUT TODAY WE ARE
CONCERNED THAT MAYBE CLOUDINESS WILL ASSIST AND WE DID NOT GO ABOVE
GFS MOS. CWA IN A SEMI-COLISH SPOT WRT PRESSURE GRADIENT, SO NOT A
WINDY DAY AS YESTERDAY BECAME ONCE THE SUN BROKE OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THRU 23Z SOUTH IN LINE WITH LATEST RAP.
THEN AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMES THRU, WE SHOULD HAVE A WIND
PICK-UP DURING THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE WRF-NMMB
STARTS TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. ATTM WHILE THERE IS SOME CAA SC, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SOLID. WE CONTINUE TO SIDE CLOSER TO THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS AND
ECMWF SKY SOLUTIONS. MIN TEMPS A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND. GIVEN THE CAA
AND THE THERMAL TROF PEAKING AT 12Z, EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER THAN
USUAL MORNING MIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE HIGHS
MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 20S FAR NORTH. THESE READINGS ARE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID/LATE MARCH. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME SUB-ZERO DEW
POINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BOMB OFF
THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM
THE COAST FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND COMBINE WITH ENERGY
CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW) TUE-WED WITH TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. THESE TOTALS ALIGN WITH THE LATEST WWD
TOTALS. SEVERAL FACTORS COULD CREATE DIFFERENT TOTALS...NAMELY THE
STORM DEVELOPING SOONER OR COMING CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST. PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FCSTS FOR THE LATEST. THE LATEST MODELS STILL
SHOW THE HEAVIEST PCPN MOVING JUST EAST OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT...WITH THE ERN PART OF NJ GETTING THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY
PCPN FOR 6-8 HRS.

COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WED/WED NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S WED WITH W/NW WINDS GUSTING TO
30-35 MPH AT TIMES. TH WINDS SUBSIDE LATER WED NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS FAR
NORTH.

THU/THU NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THEN
MOVES EAST. MODERATING TEMPERATURES THU...BUT STILL SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MOSTLY LOW 40S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 40S
SOUTH. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

FRI THRU SAT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SRN CANADA. A SRLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR ARRIVES
FRI WITH INCREASING CHC FOR SHOWERS FRI NIGHT/SAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S BOTH FRI AND
SAT.

SUN...A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER FORESEEN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PLANS FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE SHOULD CONTINUE VFR FORECASTS.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE AT KACY AND KMIV AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME MVFR
CIGS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

THIS MORNING VFR CIG FORECAST TO LOWER MORE COMFORTABLY INTO AC
LEVEL. A STRATOCU VFR CIG POSSIBLE AT KABE AND KRDG EARLY. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS/TERMINALS SOUTHEAST WE
HAVE KEPT A STRATOCU LEVEL VFR CIG IN THE TAFS. PCPN ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT MIGHT MAKE IT TO KACY AND KMIV, BUT CONFIDENCE AND
INHERENT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO STILL INCLUDE. FARTHER NORTHWEST
CONTINUED HIGHER BASED VFR CIG. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, SECONDARY CFP MOVES THROUGH. WINDS VEER MORE TO THE
NORTH WITH SIMILAR TO AFTERNOON SUSTAINED SPEEDS, BUT GUSTS
REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS. VFR STRATOCU CIG MIGHT LINGER AT KMIV
AND KACY, REST OF TERMINALS WE ARE NOT FORECASTING A CIG.

INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS MIGHT CONTINUE AT WINDIER
TERMINALS, BUT SKIES BY THEN SHOULD BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR.


OUTLOOK...
MON/MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUE THRU WED MORNING...MOSTLY IFR/MVFR WITH LOW CIGS/SNOW/GUSTY WINDS.
LATER WED INTO THU...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY. BUT, WE ARE
EXPECTING THEM TO INCREASE TONIGHT AFTER THE CDFNTL PASSAGE
AND THERE IS BETTER MIXING AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA WATERS.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
AREA WATERS. THE START TIME IS TO THE CATCH THE NORTHERN AREA WATERS
WIND UPTICK FIRST. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE MWW. THERE IS ALSO THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
MON NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE-WED...WINDS INCREASE STEADILY TUE WILL PROBABLY REACH GALE
CRITERIA BY TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WED.
WED NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE WED
NIGHT.
THU/THU NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE LATE
THU NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE LATEST ESTOFS STORM SURGE TIDE GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONDITIONS...BUT IT DOES COME CLOSE. THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TUESDAY IS THE ONE THE COME CLOSEST TO
FLOODING. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE THAT THE ESTOFS IS BASED
ON IS NOT THE FCST THAT WE ARE GOING WITH...SINCE WE HAVE TENDED
TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE LOW A BIT CLOSER TO
THE SHORE...SO THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN FOR A
WHILE...SO COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES ARE ADVISED TO LOOK FOR UPDATES
IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS A CLOSER TO THE COAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE
THE RISK OF GREATER COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL AT OUR CLIMO BIG 4:

                  MARCH 25TH      MARCH 26TH
ATLANTIC CITY     2.0 IN 2013     0.1 IN 2001
PHILADELPHIA      1.7 IN 1965     0.8 IN 2001
WILMINGTON        1.2 IN 1965     0.7 IN 2001
ALLENTOWN         1.5 IN 1934     2.0 IN 1933

AS A POINT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL REFERENCE. PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD
TEN 3 INCH OR GREATER SNOW EVENTS AFTER MARCH 24TH.
THE LAST OCCURRED ON MARCH 31ST TO APRIL 1ST OF 1997 AS
3.9 INCHES FELL. THE GREATEST WAS 19.4 INCHES ON APRIL
3RD AND 4TH OF 1915.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 640 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATE MONDAY AND THEN TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST,
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ESTF UPDATE MAINLY TO ADJUST GRIDS TO CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS. WE DID ADJUST POPS UPWARD IN OUR FAR SRN CWA BASED ON THE
LATEST 06Z GFS AND WRF-NMMB. MEASURABLE POPS NOW A BLEND OF THE
LATEST RAP AND THE FORMER MODELS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MEASURABLE
WITH THE LATTER MODELS IS STILL NOT VERIFYING.

THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
WRF-NMMB. UP IN NORTHERN CANADA AND ALASKA, NOT THAT THEIR 00Z
SOLUTION OUTCOMES WERE COLLABORATIVE, THE GFS AND ECMWF
INITIALIZATIONS WERE CLOSE. THE REX HIGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER
ALASKA THAN INITIALIZED AND THE IMPLICATION WOULD BE THAT THE LAST
PIECE OF THE PUZZLE, THE SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST TERRITORY AND
NUNAVUT BORDER IS COMING IN SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN INITIALIZED. THE
NEXT SOUNDING RUN SHOULD FINALLY HAVE A BETTER CAPTURE AND LAND
BASED RAOB SAMPLING OF THIS FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME THE GFS LOOKED
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND BETTER AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ITS
INITIALIZATION AND WAS USED MORE SO TODAY.

SECONDARY FRONT WAS CLEARLY SHOWING ON THE 925MB AND 850MB ANALYSES
ALONG THE MI AND CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SECOND BOUNDARY HAS OPENED
THE DOOR FOR POPS SOUTH AS WAVES ARE FORMING ON THE FRONT AND THE
FRONT ITSELF IS STALLING. THE FORCING THAT THERE IS WITHIN OUR CWA
IS EXTREMELY HI BASED (FGEN FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CENTERED
AROUND 600MB) WITH NO FCST MID LEVEL WAA THIS FAR NORTH. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR BELOW IT. THE FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS OUTPACING
THE MOISTURE AND THE MOISTURE IS OUTPACING THE DPVA. THE NET RESULT
IS NOT MUCH PCPN IN OUR CWA, EVEN THOUGH MEASURABLE HAS TRENDED
NORTHWARD FROM LAST NIGHT.

LOOKING AT MODELING VERIFICATION, IN SPITE OF THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
INITIALIZATION, THE WRF-NMMB VERIFIED THE BEST AT 06Z WITH ITS QPF
VS REALITY IN THE LOWER MS VLY. OUR MEASURABLE POPS ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE OP WRF-NMMB AND RAP COMBO, GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE .05"
ISOHYET ON THE GLOBAL MODELS. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE ALREADY TOO LOW,
WRF-NMMB 2M TEMPS NOT USED AND WE SIDED WITH THE WARMER GFS MAV
GUIDANCE TODAY. GIVEN THIS AND THE LIGHT PCPN INTENSITY, PTYPE SOUTH
ALL RAIN. WE DID KEEP THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES FAR NW AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM STAT GUIDANCE, BUT TODAY WE ARE
CONCERNED THAT MAYBE CLOUDINESS WILL ASSIST AND WE DID NOT GO ABOVE
GFS MOS. CWA IN A SEMI-COLISH SPOT WRT PRESSURE GRADIENT, SO NOT A
WINDY DAY AS YESTERDAY BECAME ONCE THE SUN BROKE OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THRU 23Z SOUTH IN LINE WITH LATEST RAP.
THEN AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMES THRU, WE SHOULD HAVE A WIND
PICK-UP DURING THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE WRF-NMMB
STARTS TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. ATTM WHILE THERE IS SOME CAA SC, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SOLID. WE CONTINUE TO SIDE CLOSER TO THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS AND
ECMWF SKY SOLUTIONS. MIN TEMPS A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND. GIVEN THE CAA
AND THE THERMAL TROF PEAKING AT 12Z, EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER THAN
USUAL MORNING MIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE HIGHS
MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 20S FAR NORTH. THESE READINGS ARE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID/LATE MARCH. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME SUB-ZERO DEW
POINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BOMB OFF
THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM
THE COAST FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND COMBINE WITH ENERGY
CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW) TUE-WED WITH TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. THESE TOTALS ALIGN WITH THE LATEST WWD
TOTALS. SEVERAL FACTORS COULD CREATE DIFFERENT TOTALS...NAMELY THE
STORM DEVELOPING SOONER OR COMING CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST. PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FCSTS FOR THE LATEST. THE LATEST MODELS STILL
SHOW THE HEAVIEST PCPN MOVING JUST EAST OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT...WITH THE ERN PART OF NJ GETTING THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY
PCPN FOR 6-8 HRS.

COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WED/WED NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S WED WITH W/NW WINDS GUSTING TO
30-35 MPH AT TIMES. TH WINDS SUBSIDE LATER WED NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS FAR
NORTH.

THU/THU NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THEN
MOVES EAST. MODERATING TEMPERATURES THU...BUT STILL SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MOSTLY LOW 40S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 40S
SOUTH. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

FRI THRU SAT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SRN CANADA. A SRLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR ARRIVES
FRI WITH INCREASING CHC FOR SHOWERS FRI NIGHT/SAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S BOTH FRI AND
SAT.

SUN...A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER FORESEEN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PLANS FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE SHOULD CONTINUE VFR FORECASTS.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE AT KACY AND KMIV AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME MVFR
CIGS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

THIS MORNING VFR CIG FORECAST TO LOWER MORE COMFORTABLY INTO AC
LEVEL. A STRATOCU VFR CIG POSSIBLE AT KABE AND KRDG EARLY. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS/TERMINALS SOUTHEAST WE
HAVE KEPT A STRATOCU LEVEL VFR CIG IN THE TAFS. PCPN ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT MIGHT MAKE IT TO KACY AND KMIV, BUT CONFIDENCE AND
INHERENT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO STILL INCLUDE. FARTHER NORTHWEST
CONTINUED HIGHER BASED VFR CIG. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, SECONDARY CFP MOVES THROUGH. WINDS VEER MORE TO THE
NORTH WITH SIMILAR TO AFTERNOON SUSTAINED SPEEDS, BUT GUSTS
REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS. VFR STRATOCU CIG MIGHT LINGER AT KMIV
AND KACY, REST OF TERMINALS WE ARE NOT FORECASTING A CIG.

INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS MIGHT CONTINUE AT WINDIER
TERMINALS, BUT SKIES BY THEN SHOULD BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR.


OUTLOOK...
MON/MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUE THRU WED MORNING...MOSTLY IFR/MVFR WITH LOW CIGS/SNOW/GUSTY WINDS.
LATER WED INTO THU...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY. BUT, WE ARE
EXPECTING THEM TO INCREASE TONIGHT AFTER THE CDFNTL PASSAGE
AND THERE IS BETTER MIXING AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA WATERS.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
AREA WATERS. THE START TIME IS TO THE CATCH THE NORTHERN AREA WATERS
WIND UPTICK FIRST. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE MWW.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
MON NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE-WED...WINDS INCREASE STEADILY TUE WILL PROBABLY REACH GALE
CRITERIA BY TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WED.
WED NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE WED
NIGHT.
THU/THU NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE LATE
THU NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE LATEST ESTOFS STORM SURGE TIDE GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONDITIONS...BUT IT DOES COME CLOSE. THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TUESDAY IS THE ONE THE COME CLOSEST TO
FLOODING. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE THAT THE ESTOFS IS BASED
ON IS NOT THE FCST THAT WE ARE GOING WITH...SINCE WE HAVE TENDED
TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE LOW A BIT CLOSER TO
THE SHORE...SO THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN FOR A
WHILE...SO COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES ARE ADVISED TO LOOK FOR UPDATES
IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS A CLOSER TO THE COAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE
THE RISK OF GREATER COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL AT OUR CLIMO BIG 4:

                  MARCH 25TH      MARCH 26TH
ATLANTIC CITY     2.0 IN 2013     0.1 IN 2001
PHILADELPHIA      1.7 IN 1965     0.8 IN 2001
WILMINGTON        1.2 IN 1965     0.7 IN 2001
ALLENTOWN         1.5 IN 1934     2.0 IN 1933

AS A POINT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL REFERENCE. PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD
TEN 3 INCH OR GREATER SNOW EVENTS AFTER MARCH 24TH.
THE LAST OCCURRED ON MARCH 31ST TO APRIL 1ST OF 1997 AS
3.9 INCHES FELL. THE GREATEST WAS 19.4 INCHES ON APRIL
3RD AND 4TH OF 1915.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 628 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATE MONDAY AND THEN TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST,
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ESTF UPDATE MAINLY TO ADJUST GRIDS TO CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS. WE DID ADJUST POPS UPWARD IN OUR FAR SRN CWA BASED ON THE
LATEST 06Z GFS AND WRF-NMMB. MEASURABLE POPS NOW A BLEND OF THE
LATEST RAP AND THE FORMER MODELS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MEASURABLE
WITH THE LATTER MODELS IS STILL NOT VERIFYING.

THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
WRF-NMMB. UP IN NORTHERN CANADA AND ALASKA, NOT THAT THEIR 00Z
SOLUTION OUTCOMES WERE COLLABORATIVE, THE GFS AND ECMWF
INITIALIZATIONS WERE CLOSE. THE REX HIGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER
ALASKA THAN INITIALIZED AND THE IMPLICATION WOULD BE THAT THE LAST
PIECE OF THE PUZZLE, THE SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST TERRITORY AND
NUNAVUT BORDER IS COMING IN SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN INITIALIZED. THE
NEXT SOUNDING RUN SHOULD FINALLY HAVE A BETTER CAPTURE AND LAND
BASED RAOB SAMPLING OF THIS FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME THE GFS LOOKED
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND BETTER AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ITS
INITIALIZATION AND WAS USED MORE SO TODAY.

SECONDARY FRONT WAS CLEARLY SHOWING ON THE 925MB AND 850MB ANALYSES
ALONG THE MI AND CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SECOND BOUNDARY HAS OPENED
THE DOOR FOR POPS SOUTH AS WAVES ARE FORMING ON THE FRONT AND THE
FRONT ITSELF IS STALLING. THE FORCING THAT THERE IS WITHIN OUR CWA
IS EXTREMELY HI BASED (FGEN FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CENTERED
AROUND 600MB) WITH NO FCST MID LEVEL WAA THIS FAR NORTH. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR BELOW IT. THE FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS OUTPACING
THE MOISTURE AND THE MOISTURE IS OUTPACING THE DPVA. THE NET RESULT
IS NOT MUCH PCPN IN OUR CWA, EVEN THOUGH MEASURABLE HAS TRENDED
NORTHWARD FROM LAST NIGHT.

LOOKING AT MODELING VERIFICATION, IN SPITE OF THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
INITIALIZATION, THE WRF-NMMB VERIFIED THE BEST AT 06Z WITH ITS QPF
VS REALITY IN THE LOWER MS VLY. OUR MEASURABLE POPS ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE OP WRF-NMMB AND RAP COMBO, GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE .05"
ISOHYET ON THE GLOBAL MODELS. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE ALREADY TOO LOW,
WRF-NMMB 2M TEMPS NOT USED AND WE SIDED WITH THE WARMER GFS MAV
GUIDANCE TODAY. GIVEN THIS AND THE LIGHT PCPN INTENSITY, PTYPE SOUTH
ALL RAIN. WE DID KEEP THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES FAR NW AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM STAT GUIDANCE, BUT TODAY WE ARE
CONCERNED THAT MAYBE CLOUDINESS WILL ASSIST AND WE DID NOT GO ABOVE
GFS MOS. CWA IN A SEMI-COLISH SPOT WRT PRESSURE GRADIENT, SO NOT A
WINDY DAY AS YESTERDAY BECAME ONCE THE SUN BROKE OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THRU 23Z SOUTH IN LINE WITH LATEST RAP.
THEN AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMES THRU, WE SHOULD HAVE A WIND
PICK-UP DURING THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE WRF-NMMB
STARTS TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. ATTM WHILE THERE IS SOME CAA SC, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SOLID. WE CONTINUE TO SIDE CLOSER TO THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS AND
ECMWF SKY SOLUTIONS. MIN TEMPS A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND. GIVEN THE CAA
AND THE THERMAL TROF PEAKING AT 12Z, EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER THAN
USUAL MORNING MIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE HIGHS
MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 20S FAR NORTH. THESE READINGS ARE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID/LATE MARCH. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME SUB-ZERO DEW
POINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BOMB OFF
THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM
THE COAST FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND COMBINE WITH ENERGY
CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW) TUE-WED WITH TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. THESE TOTALS ALIGN WITH THE LATEST WWD
TOTALS. SEVERAL FACTORS COULD CREATE DIFFERENT TOTALS...NAMELY THE
STORM DEVELOPING SOONER OR COMING CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST. PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FCSTS FOR THE LATEST. THE LATEST MODELS STILL
SHOW THE HEAVIEST PCPN MOVING JUST EAST OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT...WITH THE ERN PART OF NJ GETTING THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY
PCPN FOR 6-8 HRS.

COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WED/WED NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S WED WITH W/NW WINDS GUSTING TO
30-35 MPH AT TIMES. TH WINDS SUBSIDE LATER WED NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS FAR
NORTH.

THU/THU NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THEN
MOVES EAST. MODERATING TEMPERATURES THU...BUT STILL SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MOSTLY LOW 40S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 40S
SOUTH. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

FRI THRU SAT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SRN CANADA. A SRLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR ARRIVES
FRI WITH INCREASING CHC FOR SHOWERS FRI NIGHT/SAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S BOTH FRI AND
SAT.

SUN...A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER FORESEEN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PLANS FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE SHOULD CONTINUE VFR FORECASTS.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE AT KACY AND KMIV AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME MVFR
CIGS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

THIS MORNING VFR CIG FORECAST TO LOWER MORE COMFORTABLY INTO AC
LEVEL. A STRATOCU VFR CIG POSSIBLE AT KABE AND KRDG EARLY. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS/TERMINALS SOUTHEAST WE
HAVE KEPT A STRATOCU LEVEL VFR CIG IN THE TAFS. PCPN ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT MIGHT MAKE IT TO KACY AND KMIV, BUT CONFIDENCE AND
INHERENT IMPACTS TOO LOW TO STILL INCLUDE. FARTHER NORTHWEST
CONTINUED HIGHER BASED VFR CIG. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING, SECONDARY CFP MOVES THROUGH. WINDS VEER MORE TO THE
NORTH WITH SIMILAR TO AFTERNOON SUSTAINED SPEEDS, BUT GUSTS
REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS. VFR STRATOCU CIG MIGHT LINGER AT KMIV
AND KACY, REST OF TERMINALS WE ARE NOT FORECASTING A CIG.

INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS MIGHT CONTINUE AT WINDIER
TERMINALS, BUT SKIES BY THEN SHOULD BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR.


OUTLOOK...
MON/MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUE THRU WED MORNING...MOSTLY IFR/MVFR WITH LOW CIGS/SNOW/GUSTY WINDS.
LATER WED INTO THU...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY. BUT, WE ARE
EXPECTING THEM TO INCREASE TONIGHT AFTER THE CDFNTL PASSAGE
AND THERE IS BETTER MIXING AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA WATERS.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
AREA WATERS. THE START TIME IS TO THE CATCH THE NORTHERN AREA WATERS
WIND UPTICK FIRST. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE MWW.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
MON NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE-WED...WINDS INCREASE STEADILY TUE WILL PROBABLY REACH GALE
CRITERIA BY TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WED.
WED NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE WED
NIGHT.
THU/THU NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE LATE
THU NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE LATEST ESTOFS STORM SURGE TIDE GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONDITIONS...BUT IT DOES COME CLOSE. THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TUESDAY IS THE ONE THE COME CLOSEST TO
FLOODING. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE THAT THE ESTOFS IS BASED
ON IS NOT THE FCST THAT WE ARE GOING WITH...SINCE WE HAVE TENDED
TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE LOW A BIT CLOSER TO
THE SHORE...SO THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN FOR A
WHILE...SO COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES ARE ADVISED TO LOOK FOR UPDATES
IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS A CLOSER TO THE COAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE
THE RISK OF GREATER COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

 625 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014


.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER COASTAL NE
FL HAVE SHIFTED NE INTO SE GA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE AS MODELS AND OBS SHOW SW WINDS
INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR BUT DO NOT PLAN ON AN
ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THE SW THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. HRRR AND NARRE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF DENSE FOG
FORMING AFTER 08Z FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK
CAPE/INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. N
TO NE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT REACHING SOUTHERN ZONES BY 12Z MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COOLING INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER SE GA BEHIND
FRONT.

FOR MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR WORKING IN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FROM I-10 NORTHWARD...WITH 65-70 FURTHER
SOUTH. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WAVES RIDING NORTH
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH NE FL HAVING THE GREATEST SHOT AT
ORGANIZED PRECIP MONDAY AFTN. WILL USE MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR
MOST OF NE FL...WITH LESSER CHANCES ACROSS SE GA...WITH FAR INTERIOR
SE GA MAINLY DRY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY WITH
LAKE WIND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. WITH INSTABILITY
ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WILL LEAVE TSTMS
OUT OF THE FCST.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...EXITING TUESDAY MORNING. WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TAP
THINK PRECIP COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...ONCE AGAIN
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL. WILL USE
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE...WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NE FL/SE GA MONDAY
NIGHT. A RAPID PRECIP DECREASE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST...WITH MOST AREAS DRY BY MIDDAY INTO
THE EARLY AFTN. WITH THE STRONGER LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND GREATER
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THUS WILL
USE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
THUNDER THREAT ENDING TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH FOR SE GA TO
AROUND 1 INCH FOR NE FL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THICK CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY SEASONABLY COOL
BUT A BIT MILDER THAN MONDAY.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT QUITE COOL AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. RESIDUAL BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL ADD TO THE CHILL...BUT  WILL PREVENT ANY FROST TUESDAY NIGHT
AS LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND. THE HIGH WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST THURSDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO
AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
FALLING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL USE LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

.AVIATION...
PATCHY BR WILL PREVAIL AT VQQ/JAX/GNV TIL 13-14Z...OTHERWISE VFR
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER
LATE THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WILL USE VCSH FOR
ALL PORTS THIS AFTN INTO EVENING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TNGT...ESPECIALLY AT GNV. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY...WILL USE SCT010 FOR GNV FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...AREA OF DENSE FOG OVER THE GA WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WILL MONITOR FOR AN DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT DENSE FOG MAY BE SHORT
LIVED AS INCREASING SW WINDS SHOULD BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT BRINGING A
SURGE IN NE WINDS. WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE LOW EJECTS NE AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...WITH GALES
QUITE LIKELY OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS INTO NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK ON MONDAY AS ONSHORE
WINDS INCREASE WITH BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  49  62  47 /  40  40  10  60
SSI  73  53  59  53 /  30  30  30  70
JAX  80  54  63  53 /  30  40  40  70
SGJ  78  59  64  57 /  30  40  50  70
GNV  80  57  67  53 /  40  40  50  80
OCF  81  57  71  56 /  30  40  60  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/












Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
949 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 949 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2014

9 AM surface map showed sprawling 1035 MB late season Arctic high
extending south from Minnesota into northern Kansas and Missouri.
Brisk N/NNW winds continued to supply cold advection for
central/SE IL. Persistent northerly flow in the low levels has
brought a plume of Lake Michigan moisture south into eastern IL
primarily east of I-57 in the form of a broken stratocu deck.
Latest RAP forecast shows winds backing more to the NW over the
next couple hours which will allow these clouds to shift SE and
dissipate. Otherwise, sunny skies expected under subsidence
associated with the ridge axis, which shifts towards NW IL by 00Z.
This to keep NW winds going at 10-18 MPH, which combined with
unseasonably cold airmass (highs 15-20 degs below normal) will
produce wind chills in the teens this morning and 20s for most of
the afternoon.

25
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 658 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2014

Quiet/predominantly VFR weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. The
main exception is for a few hours this morning at KCMI, where a
MVFR cig may sneak in off Lake Michigan at times. Northerly winds,
gusty at times today, will trend northeast and diminish tonight as
a ridge of high pressure passes through the area.

Bak
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 302 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday

High pressure will settle southward into the region today,
providing dry but unseasonably cool conditions. Mid/high clouds
currently blanketing central Illinois will shift E/SE this
morning, leaving behind sunny skies by midday. Despite full
sunshine for much of the day, continued CAA on brisk northerly
winds will keep temperatures mainly in the 30s. Clear skies/light
winds beneath the ridge axis will create excellent radiational
cooling conditions this evening before clouds begin to increase
in advance of the next storm system after midnight. As a result,
overnight low temperatures will dip into the teens across the
board.

Short-wave energy currently evident on water vapor imagery over
British Columbia will dive southeastward tonight into Monday,
spreading clouds and precip into central Illinois. 00z Mar 23
models in excellent agreement in keeping precip west of the area
until Monday afternoon. Have therefore maintained a dry forecast
Monday morning, then introduced chance POPs along/west of I-57
during the afternoon. Despite afternoon highs in the middle to
upper 30s, forecast soundings continue to show quite a bit of dry
air below 850mb, suggesting ample evaporative cooling will allow
precip to fall as snow. Strongest lift and deepest moisture
coincide during the evening, so will increase POPs to likely at
that time. With above freezing surface temps, will not see much
snow accumulation prior to sunset, but once temps drop and snow
picks up after dark, a light accumulation of 1 inch or less will
be likely.

Given fast northwesterly flow, decided to trim POPs for Tuesday
morning, with just a slight chance lingering across the eastern
KILX CWA. Blustery and cold conditions will prevail in the wake of
the storm system on Tuesday. Northwesterly winds gusting to between
25 and 30 mph will create wind-chills in the single digits and
teens as actual air temperatures struggle to rise into the lower
to middle 30s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

Once early week system moves eastward, upper pattern will quickly
become zonal by the middle and end of the week. This will allow a
warming trend to develop, with high temperatures climbing back to
near normal in the lower to middle 50s by Thursday and Friday.
Meanwhile, a vigorous wave is expected to come onshore along the
West Coast, then track eastward into the Midwest by Thursday.
Increasing southerly flow ahead of the system may trigger some WAA
rain showers as early as Wednesday night with better chances
arriving on Thursday. As negatively tilted upper trough and
deepening surface low approach, showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will become more widespread by Thursday night. Low
will lift into the Great Lakes on Friday, dragging a cold front
though central Illinois. A few showers will linger along/ahead of
the boundary on Friday followed by dry and mild weather for next
weekend.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 542 AM MDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SUN MAR 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/COMPLICATED FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH TRANSITIONS INTO A BROAD TROUGHINESS
AND PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT FLOW. MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT MOVING
INTO THE REGION WITH COLD AND MOIST AIR MASS ESTABLISHED AT THE
SURFACE.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET AND MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
MAY NOT HAVE THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FAR ENOUGH WEST.
OVERALL AT MID LEVELS THE SREF WAS THE WORST. THE NAM AND CANADIAN
WERE DOING BEST AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT IS INDICATING FOG
DEVELOPING/CONTINUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. ALSO THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE AND LEAVE IN MY WESTERN THIRD TO HALF WITH MY EASTERN AREAS
CLEARING OUT...WHICH IT HAS AND NOW TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING OVER
THERE. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BUT THIS DEFINITELY COULD HAVE AN
AFFECT ON HOW WARM IT GETS TODAY. LATER GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
COLDER FROM THE EARLIER 00Z GUIDANCE. SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT
DIRECTION. GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE AT LEAST
BREEZY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...AND ADJUSTED THE WINDS
ACCORDINGLY.

WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT COMES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
JET IS DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. THE
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THIS JET LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE NIGHT. LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIR MASS ARE TOO DRY FOR
PRECIPITATION AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT
BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES WOULD FALL IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA.
FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A LITTLE MORE STRATUS COMING THROUGH BEHIND IT.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES WOULD
INDICATE THAT THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT COULD DEFINITELY GET WINDY. LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY WITH THE JET TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
DAY. AT THE VERY LEAST THIS COULD KEEP SOME CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A
FEW FLURRIES...AROUND TO POSSIBLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO CAME A LITTLE COOLER AND THAT MAKES SENSE. SO DID
ADJUST DOWN SLIGHTLY.

INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT. MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY
PRESSURE/COOL SURGE THAT COMES IN LATER IN THE NIGHT. MODELS SHIFT
THE WINDS TO A LIGHT UPSLOPE DIRECTION. INITIALLY THOUGHT THAT THE
LIGHTER WINDS WOULD ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE ALSO BRINGING IN A LOT MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS. SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THIS.
IF CLOUD COVER DOES NOT MATERIALIZE THEN IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...DAY STARTS OUT WITH LIGHTER/EASTERLY WINDS.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS 3 HOUR PRESSURE
FALLS START INCREASING. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD BE AT LEAST BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MODELS ARE
ALSO INDICATING THAT MORE STRATUS WILL BE AROUND AND CONSIDERING
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT ALSO MAKES SENSE. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 18Z. HOWEVER...IF THAT IS NOT THE
CASE...MAXES WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED. AT THIS TIME WENT TOWARD
THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST.

IT COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN DURING THE NIGHT. SO BASED ON THIS MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT SUN MAR 23 2014

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL BE ON
THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...WITH A
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTH...KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALMOST 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. WITH WINDS GUSTING 25-30 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE
WESTERN TWO COLUMNS OF COUNTIES...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME SMALL PRECIP. CHANCES BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AS THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500 MB JET STREAM ACCOMPANYING THE
NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.

THURSDAY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS
INDICATE A DRY ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH THE
ENVIRONMENT SATURATING JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AM THINKING
THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT FOR PRECIP. TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
BEFORE SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS DUE TO THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT BEING JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
MEANWHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL BEHIND IT ALONG WITH PRODUCING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SMALL PRECIP. CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AS A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN
BEHIND THE STRONGER ONE FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT TWO SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE
AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MOISTURE FOR THE TROUGHS TO WORK
WITH...SO LOW PRECIP. CHANCES SEEM REASONABLE.

SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT SUN MAR 23 2014

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING STORM SYSTEM IS MAKING
FOR A TRICKY TAF FORECAST. MAJORITY OF THE MODEL OUTPUT IS NOT
CATCHING THE STRATUS FIELD VERY WELL. THE LATEST HRRR AND RUC ARE
DOING THE BEST JOB AND WILL BE USING THESE ALONG WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR THESE TAFS. AT KGLD...IFR/CLOSE TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MVFR BY LATE MORNING BEFORE THE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT. HOWEVER...AM
A LITTLE NERVOUS THAT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE SOON. ONCE THE CLOUDS
CLEAR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN AND CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 06Z. MODELS
ARE INDICATING ANOTHER BATCH STRATUS COMING IN WITH THE FRONT AND
CONSIDERING WHAT IS GOING ON THIS MORNING AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE
IT BUT NOT TOTALLY. WILL INTRODUCE A SCT DECK AT KGLD. FOR KMCK...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE SAME
CAVEAT AS FOR KGLDS FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE
SAME PATTERN. FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT AT KMCK AM
DOING THE SAME THING AS FOR KGLDS TAF. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES THAT A MVFR CEILING COULD OCCUR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

 1129 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY SPRING SNOWS OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

UPDATED THE GRIDS EARLIER, BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE MORE CHANGES AS
THE LAKE STREAMERS ARE CONTINUING TO DEPOSIT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
INTO NW LOWER, MAINLY WEST OF US-131 AND SOUTH OF M-32. WHILE MOST
PLACES ARE GETTING FLURRIES NEAR THESE BANDS, THERE AREA SOME
PLACES THAT WILL GET MINOR TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES HAVE ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPED INTO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS STREAMING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LENGTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY INTO THE TVC AREA. LATEST OBS FROM MBL ALSO SUGGEST SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION WITH VSBYS FALLING TO 3SM. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR SW
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING/HEATING LENDS TO
DISORGANIZATION OF LAKE BANDING. ANY NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
WELL UNDER AN INCH. REST OF OUR CWA WILL SEE SCT/BKN LAKE CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES THRU THE DAY. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHWOODS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

...RIDICULOUSLY COLD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MARCH!...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

OVERVIEW: FLOOD GATES TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR HAVE
OPENED...COURTESY OF DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
LATEST HIGH RES RUC GUIDANCE HAS -20C H8 BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA AT THIS EARLY HOUR...NEARLY 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (WAS ALREADY -18C ON
LOCAL 00Z SOUNDING). IMPRESSIVE COLD INDEED! REMNANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT/ASSOCIATED WINDS HAVE KEPT SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM
TANKING TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL GIVEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. STILL...CURRENT READINGS FALLING INTO
AND THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS COLD ENOUGH FOR SURE...AND ARE A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. DESPITE THESE
COLD CONDITIONS AND OPEN POCKETS OF GREAT LAKES WATER...DRY
AIRMASS AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE TAKEN THEIR COLLECTIVE TOLL
ON LAKE RESPONSE...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES UNDER NNW
FLOW STCU DECK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS AND
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.

FORECAST DETAILS: HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST CENTERS ON
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL NO DOUBT REMAIN ON THE FRIGID SIDE. LATE
MARCH DIURNAL TREND WILL TRY ITS BEST TO MODIFY THINGS A TOUCH
TODAY...BUT WILL LARGELY LOSE THE BATTLE GIVEN -20C H8 AIR OVERHEAD.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S PER MULTI-GUIDANCE BLENDS...WHICH FITS
EXPECTED BL THERMAL PROGS/DIURNAL RESPONSE. CLOUD/LAKE SNOW TRENDS A
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE INSISTS IN
SPIKE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY...ALTHOUGH BACKWARD RUN
TRAJECTORIES SHOW NO UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCE. COLD ENOUGH
AIRMASS AND ENOUGH OPEN WATER AREAS TO GET SOME DECENT LAKE
RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS ABOUT EXPECTED SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE HELP AND DEPTH OF CBL ON HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP
FLURRY MENTION FOR NOW OFF THE BIG WATERS...WITH EXPECTED DIURNAL
STCU RESPONSE UNDER COLD DOME LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
GENERATING FLURRIES AREA-WIDE (MUCH LIKE WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
YESTERDAY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA).

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS
AND DEEP DRYING ENDING LAKE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. ABOVE SHOULD RESULT IN A
REALLY GOOD NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE...AND WITH SUCH A COLD
AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE...REALLY LIKE THE COLDER END OF THE
GUIDANCE SPECTRUM (MAVMOS). WILL EVEN UNDERCUT THESE A TAD...
RESULTING IN LOWS BY SUNRISE MONDAY RANGING FROM ZERO TO TEN
BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL HANG ON THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK (AT LEAST) AS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLIDES OVER
MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN SHIFTS EAST OF OUR STATE BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS
FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH AND TRACK THRU OUR CWA.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...AND MAIN LOW AND STRONGEST LIFT REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...CHANCE POPS ARE STILL CERTAINLY
WARRANTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECTATION OF LIGHT
QPF SHOULD RESULT IN NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND UP TO ANOTHER INCH ON TUESDAY. FROPA BY TUESDAY EVENING
SHOULD BRING ALL PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR BUILD INTO MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 20S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MONDAY NIGHT AND ONCE
AGAIN PLUMMETING BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL EXTEND INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL. OUR
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT MICHIGAN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HEAD NE INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE ORIGIN OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND NOW TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER THRU LWR MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY VS. THRU LAKE SUPERIOR PER PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL EXPECT WARMER
AIR AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...LIKELY TAPING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO STILL EXPECT THE POTENTIAL OF MIXED PRECIP AND DESCENT QPF
GIVEN THE PROJECTED THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES. POPS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A BIG
CHALLENGE...AND WILL REMAIN RATHER GENERIC FOR NOW. PRECIP SHOULD BE
GENERALLY ALL SNOW BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL COME TO
AN END BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS STILL MAINLY IN THE 20S...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S FOR THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE CLOUDS WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE NEAR TVC AND MBL.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR THRU TODAY...WITH
LAKE CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER
MOVES OVERHEAD. NW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN
TO GUST OF 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL AGAIN DIMINISH TO
BELOW 10 KTS WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

 928 AM MDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA
THIS MORNING AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS
IT PULLS COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL
ADD AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO MIX AND ENHANCE THE ASCENT ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. THIS COVERED WELL IN GOING FORECAST. INSTABILITY WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN SNOW RATES AND ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WARM GROUND AND HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL INHIBIT SOME
ACCUMULATION A BIT...BUT THE GRASSY AREAS WILL SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY IN ELEVATED AREAS AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE
SLOPES. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING
NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS. TWEAKED POPS UP IN THESE LOCATIONS.
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH
WITH POSSIBLY TWO IN PLACES UNDERNEATH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
ADJUSTED WINDS A BIT TO BETTER MATCH TRENDS. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF BC WILL MAKE FOR INTERESTING WX
TODAY. INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROF IS INDUCING
PRESSURE FALLS IN CENTRAL MT...BUT SFC EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST ALL
THE WAY TO LIVINGSTON AS OF 08Z DUE TO THE LEE SIDE RIDGING...AND
THE FACT THAT THERE ARE FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS ID TOO. THE
LATTER IS AN INDICATION OF THE STRONG NORTHERLY JET DROPPING
ALONG THE PAC COAST. AS QG FORCING INCREASES WE ARE SEEING CIGS
GRADUALLY LOWER...AND WITH ECHOES ON BLX RADAR BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH BEFORE TOO
MUCH LONGER...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EAST WINDS IN PLACE. MAIN
FORECAST ISSUES INVOLVE THIS CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED TRACK OF SFC
LOW...WHICH WILL DICTATE WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN IS LATER
TODAY.

NAM/SREF CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING...
WARMER SFC TEMPS AND LESS QPF LATER TODAY...WHEREAS THE GFS/ECMWF
AND UKMET BRING REINFORCING NORTHERLY WINDS INTO OUR CWA SOONER
AND ARE THUS COLDER AND WETTER. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS TO GO WITH
THE GFS HERE...INCLUDING THE PRESSURE FALLS WEST OF THE DIVIDE...
NORTHERLY JET ALONG THE PAC COAST AND DISTINCT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
COLDER TOPS THRU SOUTHERN BC. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE RAP ANALYZED
EASTERLY 700MB WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES WHICH ARE PUSHING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY. ALL OF THIS POINT
TOWARD A STRONGER UPSLOPE EVENT IN OUR WEST LATER TODAY...BUT MUST
STRESS THAT THIS FORECAST IS STILL NOT IN THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE.

FOLLOWING THE GFS...SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
IN OUR WEST...PER DEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...
FORCING ALOFT AND STRONG INSTABILITY. SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDING DOWN THE PAC COAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR ASCENT TO CONTINUE
THRU MUCH OF THE EVENING...AND THIS IS KEY TO ALLOW FOR THIS
EVENT TO LAST LONGER THAN A COUPLE HOURS. NORTH SLOPES OF THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS WILL BE FAVORED AS WILL LIVINGSTON AND THE
PARADISE VALLEY PER THE UNSTABLE NW FLOW AND LOCATION OF UPPER
JET. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE BANDED AND LOCALLY HEAVY...AND
THUS SNOW ACCUMS WILL VARY. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY
FOR 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS. WARM SFC TEMPS WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE W/ SPRING SNOW EVENTS... BUT THERE
WILL BE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL GIVEN THE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES. IF MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION COMES TOGETHER THAN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE MORE THAN 5 INCHES. IF THE NAM VERIFIES THEN
OUR FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE TOO HIGH.

ORIENTATION OF JET FAVORS OUR WEST MORE THAN SHERIDAN AND BIG
HORN COUNTIES...THOUGH STILL LOOKS LIKE 1-2 INCHES NEAR FORT SMITH
AND SHERIDAN AS TROF PASSES THRU LATER TODAY. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH...
INCLUDING BILLINGS...AS PCPN WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY
AND OROGRAPHICS.

SNOW WILL TURN LIGHTER OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD PERSIST AND PERHAPS
BECOME ENHANCED INTO MONDAY PER NEXT SURGE OF COLDER CANADIAN AIR
AND MODEST FORCING ALOFT...WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS FAVORABLE FOR
DENDRITIC GROWTH. HAVE RAISED POPS MONDAY IN OUR CENTRAL PARTS
WITH ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH EXPECTED.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY PER AT LEAST A SHORT
COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPING AND INCREASED MIXING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
WEST. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO THE UPPER 20S OR 30S. MONDAY WILL SEE
TEMPS FALL BACK TO THE 20S AS STRONG CANADIAN SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN
WITH PRESSURES TO NEAR 1035MB AND AN AIRMASS THAT CAME OUT OF THE
NW CANADIAN ARCTIC.

BILLINGS COULD GET TO ITS SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD OF 98.7 INCHES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY PUSH 100 BY MONDAY OR MAYBE
A LITTLE LATER IN THE WEEK. JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

TUESDAY SEES WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING
COOLER AND NOT BRING AS QUITE A STRONG A WESTERLY WIND PUSH INTO
THE AREA AND ACTUALLY HOLD WINDS IN EASTERN MONTANA TO THE EAST.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO INDICATE A WEAKER WARMUP.

HEIGHTS FALL ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA AND
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED BY A COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND UPSLOPE. GFS AND ECWMF
DIFFER ON THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
OVER WYOMING SO POSITIONING OF BEST BAROCLINIC BAND IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. THAT WE WILL BE COLDER AND HAVE SOME SNOW IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE...THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IS NOT. PATTERN IS NOT AS DYNAMIC
FOR THURSDAY BUT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

BOTH MODELS BREAK DOWN THE PATTERN FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES THE COLD AIR OUT. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A DRAMATIC
WARMUP SO ONLY 50S EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT IS NOT ANTICYCLONIC FOR
VERY LONG SO PRECIPITATION INTO THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS GOOD. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

ACROSS THE AREA...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE LIKELY AT
KMLS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR BECOMING MORE
LIKELY AT KLVM...KBIL AND KSHR FROM MID DAY ON. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. STC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032 018/027 016/043 030/039 025/041 029/048 035/053
    7/J 46/S    41/B    14/J    44/J    22/W    21/B
LVM 037 015/033 014/048 031/046 025/042 027/046 033/051
    9/J 83/S    31/B    25/W    55/J    32/W    22/W
HDN 034 016/027 013/045 027/041 025/043 028/049 033/055
    7/J 46/S    41/B    13/W    43/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 032 016/026 011/041 026/043 025/040 027/047 033/054
    6/J 33/S    11/B    12/W    22/J    22/W    11/B
4BQ 036 016/027 011/042 028/045 026/043 029/048 036/056
    6/J 54/S    21/B    12/W    32/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 029 015/025 006/037 022/044 022/039 024/044 031/052
    6/J 32/S    01/B    12/W    22/J    22/W    11/B
SHR 038 016/030 013/047 029/049 025/043 025/047 030/053
    6/J 65/S    41/B    14/W    55/J    32/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
      FOR ZONES 56-64>66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 600 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
A CHILLY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE COAST...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MIGRATES
OFFSHORE NEAR BERMUDA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...DENSE FOG WAS WIDESPREAD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND
AN ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 8AM FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER
MILE. NIGHT-TIME IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE FOG EXPANDING TO THE NE
OVERSPREADING THE COAST AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE COAST SUBJECTED TO
CHILLY OCEAN AIR. AS THE FOG BREAKS THROUGH MORNING...PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH THICKENING CIRRUS THEREAFTER. SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION.

A COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA WILL PRESS SE INTO THE REGION TODAY.
A LARGE RANGE IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR VERY NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER...TO
THE UPPER 70S MAYBE EVEN 80 ACROSS OUR SC INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LOW-LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE MAY BECOME STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ALIGNMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND THE SURFACE FRONT...BOTH
OF WHICH WILL INTERACT NEAR THE COAST. LOW-LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES
OF W-NW TODAY WILL KEEP THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES FASTENED NEAR THE
COAST...AND IT IS HERE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC OMEGA THAT WE HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
TSTM...FAVORED MIDDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT IN POST FRONTAL FLOW MAY BRING LINGERING
STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH EVENING WITH TAPERING PCPN LATE AS DRY MID
LEVEL AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE NW.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SEVERELY REDUCED
VSBYS THROUGH 800 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TWO CAMPS THIS
MORNING WITH THE GFS BEING CONSISTENT WITH A DECENT RAIN EVENT FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM CONTINUES WITH A MORE SOUTH AND
EAST DEPICTION. WILL CONTINUE TO OPT FOR THE FORMER SOLUTION WHICH
MATCHES CONSISTENCY/CONTINUITY BETTER. INTERESTING TO NOTE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS ALMOST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS.

POPS HAVE BEEN FINE TUNED TO MATCH THE MORE ROBUST GFS AND ADJACENT
OFFICES. I HAVE ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TUESDAY
AS ONLY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE VIA THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
THE IMPETUS FOR RAINFALL. STILL CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LITTLE
SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN INITIALLY BUT THE BEST LIFT SEEMS TO
OCCUR A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING. WE REALLY NEED TO THREAD THE
NEEDLE WITH PRE DAWN LOWS SANS ANY DAYTIME WARMING TO SEE SNOW.

FINALLY I HAVE RAISED WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD REMAIN WELL MIXED PRECLUDING A MORE DRAMATIC DROP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE
WITH A COUPLE OF DRY ALBEIT...COLD DAYS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A LITTLE VARIABILITY IN THE NUMBERS MAINLY FOCUSING ON
LOWS BOTH DAYS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE AGRICULTURE COMMUNITY. I
HAVE TRIED TO FIND WAYS TO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP FOR
THURSDAY MORNING BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OVERHEAD...AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN...PW IS DOWN TO 0.20 INCHES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S APPEAR LIKELY. IN FACT I HAVE DROPPED THE FORECAST LOWS ABOUT
A DEGREE FOR THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG MARCH SUN SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH 50 OR CLOSE WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO FEATURE LOWER CHANCE POPS WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VSBYS WILL BE A CONCERN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
CLEARING SKIES AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. TIMING
THE ONSET WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE...AS CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED
OVER THE COASTAL TERMS LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. STILL AGREE
WITH THE HRRR THAT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CWA AS WE GET CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. IN PARTICULAR...DEWPOINTS AROUND
60 DEG ON THE COAST MEAN THAT ONCE CONDITIONS BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
AND CALM...VSBYS SHOULD DROP FAIRLY RAPIDLY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA LATER
THIS MORNING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AFTER 18Z FROM WEST TO EAST...ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS WITH SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW BENEATH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE LOW CIGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SHORT-LIVED...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TERMS BY 06Z
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO OUR CWA BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM SUNDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REACH 25 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AND AN ADVISORY WILL EXTEND FROM 6PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDDAY MONDAY. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL CONSIST OF ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET
EVERY 12 SECONDS AND S WAVES EVERY 5-6 SECONDS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4
FEET BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF
MORNING...WITH RAMPING UP OF WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST IN A
RANGE OF 20-25 KNOTS BUT WILL STEADILY DROP THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THE DIRECTION WILL ALSO VEER
TO THE EAST. THE EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY TO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES AND WITH
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS VIA THE GFS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KNOTS
THROUGH 850MB...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A GALE WARNING ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING GUSTS. CERTAINLY A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE WINDS WITH THE
SAVING GRACE FOR THE LATER TIMES ALLOWING THE HIGHEST VALUES TO BE
CONCENTRATED MORE OFFSHORE.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...WIND AND SUBSEQUENTLY SEAS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE SLOWLY WEDNESDAY...MORE APPRECIABLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. HEADLINES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
BE REMOVED BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WINDS
DIMINISH TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY THURSDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS FOLLOW IN SHORT ORDER TO 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-
     099-105>110.

MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...HDL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 837 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

BOWMAN RADAR STILL NOT SHOWING RETURNS SO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN A
LATE START IN THE PRECIP JUST BEFORE NOON SOUTHWEST. ADJUSTED
CLOUDS A BIT BUT OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH
LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD
OF THE IMPULSE WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF MONTANA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST 10Z RUC AND 09Z HRRR BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 16Z. MADE SOME MINOR SKY
COVER ADJUSTMENTS AND SLOWED THE UPWARD RISE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTHWEST/FAR SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY/THIS EVENING.

CURRENTLY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WYOMING/MONTANA ROCKIES AHEAD OF AN EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. CLEAR SKIES AT THE
MOMENT ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN CHILLY
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO LOWER TEENS. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE 9-12Z ACROSS THE WEST AS BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS MONTANA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

S/WV IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHWEST/FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODEL SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z/06Z NAM
(FARTHER NORTH WITH QPF) WITH THE LATEST 00Z GFS/EC/GEM (FARTHER
SOUTH). THE 00Z GFS/GEM BOTH SEEM A REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE EC AND NAM...SO LEANED IN THERE DIRECTION. WWD PAINTS AN INCH
OF SNOW ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHWEST...AND IS WHAT OUR GRID METHODOLOGY
CALCULATED AS WELL. MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO OUR
SOUTH BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS COLD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO
WINDY ON MONDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY AS THE COLD SURFACE HIGH TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS INDICATE
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MAIN SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO DROP FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY... THEN LIFT INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
YET ANOTHER COLD HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPING THE
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE WARM-UP COULD BE IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COOL DOWN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FROM MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CIGS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KDIK AND KBIS TAF SITES
ALONG WITH ANY MVFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 638 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH
LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD
OF THE IMPULSE WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF MONTANA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST 10Z RUC AND 09Z HRRR BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 16Z. MADE SOME MINOR SKY
COVER ADJUSTMENTS AND SLOWED THE UPWARD RISE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTHWEST/FAR SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY/THIS EVENING.

CURRENTLY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WYOMING/MONTANA ROCKIES AHEAD OF AN EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. CLEAR SKIES AT THE
MOMENT ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN CHILLY
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO LOWER TEENS. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE 9-12Z ACROSS THE WEST AS BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS MONTANA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

S/WV IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHWEST/FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODEL SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z/06Z NAM
(FARTHER NORTH WITH QPF) WITH THE LATEST 00Z GFS/EC/GEM (FARTHER
SOUTH). THE 00Z GFS/GEM BOTH SEEM A REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE EC AND NAM...SO LEANED IN THERE DIRECTION. WWD PAINTS AN INCH
OF SNOW ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHWEST...AND IS WHAT OUR GRID METHODOLOGY
CALCULATED AS WELL. MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO OUR
SOUTH BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS COLD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO
WINDY ON MONDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY AS THE COLD SURFACE HIGH TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS INDICATE
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MAIN SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO DROP FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY... THEN LIFT INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
YET ANOTHER COLD HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPING THE
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE WARM-UP COULD BE IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COOL DOWN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FROM MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CIGS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KDIK AND KBIS TAF
SITES ALONG WITH ANY MVFR CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 928 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...LOOK FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A MUCH WARMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EDT SUNDAY...

MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE NOW PUSHING OUT OF TN COMBINED WITH
SFC TROUGH OVER NW NC LEADING TO NARROW AREA OF PRECIP FROM THE
SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS. THE 09Z HRRR
AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 06Z WRF/09Z RAP SHOW THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE
QUESTION IS QPF...AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO FOLLOW
THESE MODELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH FAVORS HIGHER POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOW TO NO POPS IN THE NW. SNOW HAS
BEEN REPORTED AND OBSERVED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER NW NC AS
WELL AS AT BLF/JFZ. MADE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON 12Z RNK SOUNDING
WHICH SHOWS WET BULB JUST ABOVE ZERO AT THE SFC BUT VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE BELOW 800 MB. AS PRECIP MOVES IN THINK TEMPS WILL DROP A
FEW DEGREES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...SO MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE 3000 FT
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WHILE MIX OR ALL RAIN ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW AND WITH WARM GROUND...ONLY A SLUSHY
INCH OR LESS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EXPECTED.

WILL SEE PRECIP AND SYSTEM EXIT AFTER 4-5 PM. SOME CLEARING TAKES
PLACE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO TEMPS MAY BE ABLE
TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...EXCEPT COOL
IT OFF WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW IS.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING
SYSTEM WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NOSING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION AND
ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES....DECREASING WINDS...AND COLDER
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...

ALL MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PHASING OF NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH WITH SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTAL LOW WILL NOT TAKE PLACE
UNTIL THE LOW IS WELL OFFSHORE THE NC COAST. SUBSEQUENT TO
THIS...EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED WITH THE COASTAL LOW IN
RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM UPPER SHORT WAVE DEEPENING AND TAKING
ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. THUS...THE
EFFECTS OF THE COASTAL LOW ON OUR CWA IN TERMS OF PCPN WILL BE MINIMAL
AT BEST. THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN OUR REGION SEES WILL BE THE
RESULT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST EARLY TUE...PRIMARILY IN THE 06Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME ON TUE.
SUBSEQUENTLY...PCPN WILL DIMINISH/END ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
SWITCH OVER TO UPSLOPE...WHICH SHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE GIVEN
INCREASINGLY STRONG NW TRAJECTORIES ORTHOGONAL TO THE ALLEGHANYS
AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS.

SNOW AMOUNTS AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE QUITE QUESTIONABLE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA OUTSIDE THE UPSLOPE ALONG THE ALLEGHANYS.
FIRST...MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE...SO
THERE IS NOW MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. SECOND...THE GROUND MAY BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIRD...QPF IS
GENERALLY 0.10 TO 0.20 AT BEST...MOST OF WHICH IS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. CONSIDERABLE ADJUSTMENT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION GRIDS
WAS NECESSARY TO LIMIT AMOUNTS...AND EVEN SO THEY MAY BE TOO HIGH
FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. HOWEVER...MELTING IS
NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THESE FIGURES. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD YIELD
2 INCHES MOST AREAS FROM GREENBRIER TO WATAUGA...WITH POTENTIALLY
UP TO 4 INCHES IN WESTERN GREENBRIER/NW SUMMERS. TOO EARLY TO
ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES...BUT CAN SEE SUCH BEING ISSUED THIS TIME
TOMORROW NIGHT FOR THESE AREAS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT IN
THE HWO. WIND WILL CLEARLY BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AS THE COASTAL LOW
DEEPENS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT MAY BE FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF WIND ADVISORIES.

850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -10C EARLY MON...REBOUND INTO THE
MINUS SINGLE DIGIT RANGE BY MON AFTERNOON...THEN DROP BACK TO
AROUND -14C BY 12Z WED BEFORE QUICKLY RETURN BACK ABOVE ZERO C BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...EXTENDED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE WHAT IN GENERAL MAY FINALLY BE THE END OF WINTER...WITH
VERY FEW INTRUSIONS OF 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C AFT THU...WITH
POTENTIALLY +12C BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT SUNDAY...

AS NOTED ABOVE...ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT WHAT MAY BE THE
OVERALL END OF WHAT HAS BEEN A LONG...COLD WINTER. THE UPPER FLOW
RAPIDLY BECOMES ZONAL...THEN SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEK. OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THU TO
THE OH VALLEY BY FRI. MOST OF THE PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NW OF THE CWA. IN ITS WAKE...SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE AND A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL LINGER AND SUBSEQUENTLY MAY DEVELOP INTO A
CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLY DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THIS
FEATURE WITH TIME. AT ANY RATE...IT APPEARS WE WILL RAPIDLY EVOLVE
FROM WINTER CONDITIONS AT MID-WEEK TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
CLOUDS...RAIN CHANCES...AND MILD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE CWA
MAY FAIL TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER THU MORNING UNTIL PERHAPS
NEXT WEEK.

GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY
NOTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES NEXT SAT...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A FAIRLY COMMON SPRINGTIME PATTERN...HAVE
INTRODUCED TSRA FOR SAT AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SW VA AND NW NC.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOW
END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL TRACK SOUTH OF U.S. 460. UPSLOPE NW FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE/FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH END MVFR CIGS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN WV THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. BY 00Z...ALL SITES
SHOULD SEE SKC OR AT BEST SCT025-035. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF -RA...BUT MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. WINDS NW WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...NE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SPEEDS 5-10KTS...WITH LOW END
GUSTS POSSIBLE BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
7KTS OR LESS AFT 00Z.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COULD BRING WINTRY WEATHER TUESDAY WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL
AREAS. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE AREAS
AFTER AN INITIAL PERIOD OF -SN TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT MVFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
A PERIOD. OF BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG...GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN BY
WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SW FLOW
INCREASING BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NC COAST AND
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
EXPECT VFR WED AFTN-THU.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...KM/RAB
AVIATION...DS/RAB





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATE MONDAY AND THEN TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST,
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEEMS AS THOUGH THE LATEST RAP/SREF/HRRR HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS SW
VIRGINA AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID HAVE INCREASED POPS EVEN
FURTHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES INTO THE LIKELY
SPECTRUM AND SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE BY AN HOUR
OR SO. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT SO ONLY MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM.

OTHERWISE, THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER
THAN THE WRF-NMMB. UP IN NORTHERN CANADA AND ALASKA, NOT THAT
THEIR 00Z SOLUTION OUTCOMES WERE COLLABORATIVE, THE GFS AND ECMWF
INITIALIZATIONS WERE CLOSE. THE REX HIGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER
ALASKA THAN INITIALIZED AND THE IMPLICATION WOULD BE THAT THE LAST
PIECE OF THE PUZZLE, THE SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST TERRITORY
AND NUNAVUT BORDER IS COMING IN SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN INITIALIZED.
THE NEXT SOUNDING RUN SHOULD FINALLY HAVE A BETTER CAPTURE AND
LAND BASED RAOB SAMPLING OF THIS FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME THE GFS
LOOKED SLIGHTLY WARMER AND BETTER AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ITS
INITIALIZATION AND WAS USED MORE SO TODAY.

SECONDARY FRONT WAS CLEARLY SHOWING ON THE 925MB AND 850MB ANALYSES
ALONG THE MI AND CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SECOND BOUNDARY HAS OPENED
THE DOOR FOR POPS SOUTH AS WAVES ARE FORMING ON THE FRONT AND THE
FRONT ITSELF IS STALLING. THE FORCING THAT THERE IS WITHIN OUR CWA
IS EXTREMELY HI BASED (FGEN FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CENTERED
AROUND 600MB) WITH NO FCST MID LEVEL WAA THIS FAR NORTH. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR BELOW IT. THE FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS OUTPACING
THE MOISTURE AND THE MOISTURE IS OUTPACING THE DPVA. THE NET RESULT
IS NOT MUCH PCPN IN OUR CWA, EVEN THOUGH MEASURABLE HAS TRENDED
NORTHWARD FROM LAST NIGHT.

LOOKING AT MODELING VERIFICATION, IN SPITE OF THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
INITIALIZATION, THE WRF-NMMB VERIFIED THE BEST AT 06Z WITH ITS QPF
VS REALITY IN THE LOWER MS VLY. OUR MEASURABLE POPS ARE VERY CLOSE
TO THE OP WRF-NMMB AND RAP COMBO, GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE .05"
ISOHYET ON THE GLOBAL MODELS. GIVEN THAT THEY ARE ALREADY TOO LOW,
WRF-NMMB 2M TEMPS NOT USED AND WE SIDED WITH THE WARMER GFS MAV
GUIDANCE TODAY. GIVEN THIS AND THE LIGHT PCPN INTENSITY, PTYPE SOUTH
ALL RAIN. WE DID KEEP THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES FAR NW AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

TEMPS CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM STAT GUIDANCE, BUT TODAY WE ARE
CONCERNED THAT MAYBE CLOUDINESS WILL ASSIST AND WE DID NOT GO ABOVE
GFS MOS. CWA IN A SEMI-COLISH SPOT WRT PRESSURE GRADIENT, SO NOT A
WINDY DAY AS YESTERDAY BECAME ONCE THE SUN BROKE OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THRU 23Z SOUTH IN LINE WITH LATEST RAP.
THEN AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMES THRU, WE SHOULD HAVE A WIND
PICK-UP DURING THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE WRF-NMMB
STARTS TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. ATTM WHILE THERE IS SOME CAA SC, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SOLID. WE CONTINUE TO SIDE CLOSER TO THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS AND
ECMWF SKY SOLUTIONS. MIN TEMPS A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND. GIVEN THE CAA
AND THE THERMAL TROF PEAKING AT 12Z, EXPECT A SLIGHTLY LATER THAN
USUAL MORNING MIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE HIGHS
MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 20S FAR NORTH. THESE READINGS ARE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID/LATE MARCH. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME SUB-ZERO DEW
POINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BOMB OFF
THE EAST COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP FROM
THE COAST FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND COMBINE WITH ENERGY
CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW) TUE-WED WITH TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. THESE TOTALS ALIGN WITH THE LATEST WWD
TOTALS. SEVERAL FACTORS COULD CREATE DIFFERENT TOTALS...NAMELY THE
STORM DEVELOPING SOONER OR COMING CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST. PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FCSTS FOR THE LATEST. THE LATEST MODELS STILL
SHOW THE HEAVIEST PCPN MOVING JUST EAST OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT...WITH THE ERN PART OF NJ GETTING THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY
PCPN FOR 6-8 HRS.

COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WED/WED NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S WED WITH W/NW WINDS GUSTING TO
30-35 MPH AT TIMES. TH WINDS SUBSIDE LATER WED NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS FAR
NORTH.

THU/THU NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THEN
MOVES EAST. MODERATING TEMPERATURES THU...BUT STILL SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MOSTLY LOW 40S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 40S
SOUTH. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

FRI THRU SAT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SRN CANADA. A SRLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR ARRIVES
FRI WITH INCREASING CHC FOR SHOWERS FRI NIGHT/SAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S BOTH FRI AND
SAT.

SUN...A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER FORESEEN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12
KNOTS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING. STILL
THINK THAT THE RAIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR TERMINALS THIS EVENING,
THOUGH THE CLOSEST TERMINAL TO SEE ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE ACY...BRIEF
MVFR SHOWER POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE WE WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOMORROW...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND MORE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED. THE GUSTS SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. EXPECTING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.


OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
TUE THRU WED MORNING...MOSTLY IFR/MVFR WITH LOW CIGS/SNOW/GUSTY WINDS.
LATER WED INTO THU...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY. BUT, WE ARE
EXPECTING THEM TO INCREASE TONIGHT AFTER THE CDFNTL PASSAGE
AND THERE IS BETTER MIXING AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA WATERS.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
AREA WATERS. THE START TIME IS TO THE CATCH THE NORTHERN AREA WATERS
WIND UPTICK FIRST. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE MWW. THERE IS ALSO THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
MON NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE-WED...WINDS INCREASE STEADILY TUE WILL PROBABLY REACH GALE
CRITERIA BY TUE NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WED.
WED NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE WED
NIGHT.
THU/THU NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE LATE
THU NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE LATEST ESTOFS STORM SURGE TIDE GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONDITIONS...BUT IT DOES COME CLOSE. THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TUESDAY IS THE ONE THE COME CLOSEST TO
FLOODING. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE THAT THE ESTOFS IS BASED
ON IS NOT THE FCST THAT WE ARE GOING WITH...SINCE WE HAVE TENDED
TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE LOW A BIT CLOSER TO
THE SHORE...SO THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN FOR A
WHILE...SO COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES ARE ADVISED TO LOOK FOR UPDATES
IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS A CLOSER TO THE COAST TRACK WOULD INCREASE
THE RISK OF GREATER COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL AT OUR CLIMO BIG 4:

                  MARCH 25TH      MARCH 26TH
ATLANTIC CITY     2.0 IN 2013     0.1 IN 2001
PHILADELPHIA      1.7 IN 1965     0.8 IN 2001
WILMINGTON        1.2 IN 1965     0.7 IN 2001
ALLENTOWN         1.5 IN 1934     2.0 IN 1933

AS A POINT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL REFERENCE. PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD
TEN 3 INCH OR GREATER SNOW EVENTS AFTER MARCH 24TH.
THE LAST OCCURRED ON MARCH 31ST TO APRIL 1ST OF 1997 AS
3.9 INCHES FELL. THE GREATEST WAS 19.4 INCHES ON APRIL
3RD AND 4TH OF 1915.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 425 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

CORRECTED TO ADD MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
A FEW VERY WEAK IMPULSES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW AND WILL BE
CROSSING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE ARE
JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SEE THE FIRST WAVES OF ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/UPPER
MIDWEST WHICH WILL TRIGGER A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION TO THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT UNTIL THAT
TIME...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME AND
RESULTING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DAMP PERIOD LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AND WEAKEN IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THIS
FRONT IS CURRENTLY UP OVER SOUTHERN GA/AL...AND WILL SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTH TO A POSITION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY MONDAY MORNING.
REGIONAL RADARS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING A FEW SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE AND MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE HEADED
SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FOCUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLIP
SOUTH INTO THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE
VICINITY OVERNIGHT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A FEW NUISANCE TYPE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA
NORTHWARD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE THE 20-30% RANGE WITH ANY LIKELY
BEING LIGHT IN NATURE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREAS ON MONDAY AND EXTEND OUT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. LIKELY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ALREADY AROUND BY
MORNING...WITH A FEW SCT SHOWERS CONTINUING. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME ALONG THE 290-300K SURFACES BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AT THE SAME
TIME...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A JET CORE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL BE INCREASING TO AID THIS LOWER LEVEL LIFT.
THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A RATHER WET SCENARIO LIKELY BY MONDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THE BEST CHANCES FOR BREAKS
OF SUN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
(CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES) TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WITH SOME SYNOPTIC
FORCING IN PLACE...IT LIKELY WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SURFACE FOCUS TO GET
SOME SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS OR STORMS GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS TOMORROW SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN...WHETHER IT BE
FROM A STRATIFORM PROCESS NORTH...OR A CONVECTIVE PROCESS SOUTH.

TUESDAY...
LOTS OF SHOWERS LIKELY TO STILL BE AROUND TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
QUICKLY BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS AMPLIFICATION
IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO RESULT IN RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY...AND THIS PROCESS ALONG
WITH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP PROPEL A STRENGTHENING
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND BEGIN TO DRY US OUT FROM THE
NORTH. BY LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE
ENDED...EVEN FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER COOL AIRMASS
FOR LATE MARCH ARRIVING BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER...THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE BRIEFLY ON THE QUIET AND COOL SIDE AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL THEN QUICKLY BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WILL NEED TO
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE
ONLY PERIODS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN FREE AT THIS TIME BEING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 24/18Z: SCT TO BKN CLOUDS...OCNL MVFR CIGS...THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING PREVAILING MVFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW CIGS BUT SOME BR ESPECIALLY AT LAL
AND PGD. AFTER SUNRISE...CLOUDS LIFT SOME WITH SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS
UNDER AN OVC MID DECK WITH VCNTY SHRA. W-SW WINDS ROBUST AT TIMES
TURN TO W-NW THEN NORTH AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WINDS BECOME NE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
C-MAN AND OFFSHORE BUOY REPORTS SHOW SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A COLD FRONT NOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
WATERS SINKS SOUTH TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60NM WHERE EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE DEPICTED. AS THE FRONT SETTLES IN AND
STALLS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON MONDAY WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND REMAIN IN THE 13 TO 18 KNOT
RANGE. THE SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THESE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING
UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SOME SEA AND COASTAL
FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING REDUCED VISIBILITIES OCCURRING FROM ENGLEWOOD
NORTH.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTS EARLY ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS
AND SEAS LIKELY INCREASING INTO THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY AND
FURTHER EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A RATHER TIGHT
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS
ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE FLOW VEERS INTO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVING FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NEAR
THE COAST...AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES. SOME
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT AND
INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  75  63  73 /  20  70  80  50
FMY  68  84  67  77 /  10  50  80  60
GIF  65  78  62  74 /  20  70  80  50
SRQ  67  77  64  73 /  20  70  80  50
BKV  61  75  58  73 /  20  70  80  40
SPG  67  76  65  73 /  20  70  80  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
AVIATION...RUDE








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

 405 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
A FEW VERY WEAK IMPULSES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW AND WILL BE
CROSSING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE ARE
JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SEE THE FIRST WAVES OF ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/UPPER
MIDWEST WHICH WILL TRIGGER A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION TO THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT UNTIL THAT
TIME...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME AND
RESULTING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DAMP PERIOD LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AND WEAKEN IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THIS
FRONT IS CURRENTLY UP OVER SOUTHERN GA/AL...AND WILL SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTH TO A POSITION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY MONDAY MORNING.
REGIONAL RADARS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING A FEW SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE AND MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE HEADED
SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FOCUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLIP
SOUTH INTO THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE
VICINITY OVERNIGHT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A FEW NUISANCE TYPE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA
NORTHWARD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE THE 20-30% RANGE WITH ANY LIKELY
BEING LIGHT IN NATURE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREAS ON MONDAY AND EXTEND OUT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. LIKELY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ALREADY AROUND BY
MORNING...WITH A FEW SCT SHOWERS CONTINUING. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME ALONG THE 290-300K SURFACES BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AT THE SAME
TIME...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A JET CORE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL BE INCREASING TO AID THIS LOWER LEVEL LIFT.
THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A RATHER WET SCENARIO LIKELY BY MONDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THE BEST CHANCES FOR BREAKS
OF SUN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
(CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES) TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WITH SOME SYNOPTIC
FORCING IN PLACE...IT LIKELY WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SURFACE FOCUS TO GET
SOME SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS OR STORMS GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...MOST AREAS TOMORROW SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN...WHETHER IT BE
FROM A STRATIFORM PROCESS NORTH...OR A CONVECTIVE PROCESS SOUTH.

TUESDAY...
LOTS OF SHOWERS LIKELY TO STILL BE AROUND TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
QUICKLY BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS AMPLIFICATION
IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO RESULT IN RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY...AND THIS PROCESS ALONG
WITH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP PROPEL A STRENGTHENING
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND BEGIN TO DRY US OUT FROM THE
NORTH. BY LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ALL SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE
ENDED...EVEN FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH A RATHER COOL AIRMASS
FOR LATE MARCH ARRIVING BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER...THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BE BRIEFLY ON THE QUIET AND COOL SIDE AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL THEN QUICKLY BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH ON
TUESDAY...SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WILL NEED TO
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE
ONLY PERIODS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN FREE AT THIS TIME BEING TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 24/18Z: SCT TO BKN CLOUDS...OCNL MVFR CIGS...THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING PREVAILING MVFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW CIGS BUT SOME BR ESPECIALLY AT LAL
AND PGD. AFTER SUNRISE...CLOUDS LIFT SOME WITH SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS
UNDER AN OVC MID DECK WITH VCNTY SHRA. W-SW WINDS ROBUST AT TIMES
TURN TO W-NW THEN NORTH AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WINDS BECOME NE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...




&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVING FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NEAR
THE COAST...AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES. SOME
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT AND
INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  75  63  73 /  20  70  80  50
FMY  68  84  67  77 /  10  50  80  60
GIF  65  78  62  74 /  20  70  80  50
SRQ  67  77  64  73 /  20  70  80  50
BKV  61  75  58  73 /  20  70  80  40
SPG  67  76  65  73 /  20  70  80  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
AVIATION...RUDE






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 216 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK CHANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED CLOSE
TO 90 AND A SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND. THE
LATEST HRRR IS NOW SHOWING A COUPLE OF LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND
SLOWLY MOVE DOWN THE PENINSULA ON MONDAY ARRIVING IN SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL THEN STALL. A SOUTHERN STREAM
PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL AID IN MOVING THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY MONDAY
EVENING AND A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
RESPONSE TO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. ALL OF THIS WILL COMBINE TO
PROVIDE DECENT VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY FOR A CLOUDY WEATHER
PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PWAT INCREASING IN THE RANGE OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES IN THE TIME
PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS PLACES THE PWAT AT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY EXCESSIVE IF THE HIGHER RANGE CAN BE
ACHIEVED. SO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE
BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALWAYS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF
TRAINING OF ECHOES BEGINS TO ENFOLD. THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WHICH IN TURN WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE WAVE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY AND THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
EVENING. THE SKY WILL THEN CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA
BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED WILL BEGIN DRY AND PLEASANT WITH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON REMAINING IN THE 70S. A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER EMBEDDED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS LATE MONDAY AND THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS
LATE TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. LOCAL
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY WESTERLY TONIGHT RAPIDLY BECOMING
LIGHT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. EXTENSIVE AREAS
OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN CLEAR
OUT TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  80  69  80 /  10  40  70  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  81  71  80 /  10  40  60  60
MIAMI            71  83  71  80 /  10  40  50  60
NAPLES           70  79  69  76 /  10  40  70  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1246 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
656 AM CDT

HAD ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON TRENDS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO INCLUDE CATEGORICAL THROUGH MID MORNING FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY
IN EASTERN COOK COUNTY AND LAKE/WESTERN PORTER IN INDIANA.
RECEIVED AN ESTIMATED REPORT OF 1.5 INCHES ACCUMULATED IN ROGERS
PARK...AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND SLOW
TRAVEL. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSING
MORE INTO SOUTHEASTERN COOK AND NW INDIANA WITH TIME THOUGH THERE
IS SOME CONCERN PER RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE THAT CONVERGENCE COULD
KEEP FOCUS A BIT FARTHER WEST FOR LONGER. EXPECTING UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW BY 10 AM...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO TWO
INCHES GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY HIGH REFLECTIVITY IN SNOW BAND.
LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS SHOULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE BEYOND MID
MORNING AS ACTIVITY SLIDES SOUTHEAST...BUT DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEAR-TERM TRENDS. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH 15Z TO COVER THE HAZARDS WITH THE ONGOING SNOW.

RC

//PREV DISCUSSION...
343 AM CDT

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NW INDIANA AND POSSIBLY COOK COUNTY
IL...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH THROUGH MID WEEK AND
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

IF YOU WOKE UP AND DIDNT KNOW WHAT TIME OF YEAR IT WAS...YOU WOULD
THINK BASED ON THE SURFACE AND UPPER PATTERN THIS MORNING THAT IT
WAS JANUARY AND NOT LATE MARCH. A DEEP COLD TROUGH IS NOTED ON W/V
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF NOAM. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AVERAGING 1035 MB STRETCHES
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 00Z RAOB PICKED
UP ON 850 MB TEMPS OF -15 AND -18C RESPECTIVELY AT GRB AND MPX
RESPECTIVELY AND IT IS THIS AIR MASS THAT IS FIRING UP LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND WILL BRING US MID WINTER COLD TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REGARDING THE LAKE EFFECT: DESPITE RELYING MAINLY FROM MOISTURE FLUX
FROM COLD LAKE MAINLY IN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS...GOOD CONVERGENCE
AND IMPROVING THERMAL PROFILES FOR LAKE EFFECT HAVE GENERATED
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCAL WRF MODEL
BASICALLY SOLE GUIDANCE THAT HAD BEEN BULLISH FOR LAKE EFFECT INTO
OUR AREA...BUT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED LIKELY POPS. GIVEN
CURRENT WIND CONVERGENCE SET-UP WOULD EXPECT ACITIVITY TO GENERALLY
FOCUS INTO LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING EAST AND
DISSIPATING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH OR TWO BEFORE THIS OCCURS. AM CONCERNED WITH MOST RECENT RUNS
OF RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MESO-LOW FORMATION AND
REORGANIZATION OF CONVERGENCE INTO COOK COUNTY. ALSO PURE
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD SUGGEST COOK COUNTY COULD GET CLIPPED...SO WILL
INCLUDE CHANCE POPS ON IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT AND LET INCOMING SHIFT
MONITOR NEAR-TERM TRENDS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT: WHILE UPSTREAM OBS ARE ALREADY
EXCEPTIONAL FOR THE COLD AIR MASS PLUNGING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA
TODAY/850 MB OF -16C OR COLDER ARE IN COLDEST 1% THIS TIME OF
YEAR. NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON BRINGING CORE OF COLD TO THE
CWA...WHILE OTHER 00Z RUNS TOOK THE BRUNT OF IT JUST TO OUR EAST.
IF WE DO INDEED RECEIVE THE CORE OF THE COLD...HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN LOW 30S NORTH AND LOW-MID 30S SOUTH...WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE FAR NORTH...MAY BE A HAIR TOO WARM. HOWEVER...BANKING ON
LATE MARCH SUN OUTSIDE LAKE EFFECT AREAS TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST
HIGHS. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST PRIOR TO DAWN. MAINTAIEND
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MOSTLY MID TEENS OUTSIDE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND.
IF SKIES REMAIN CLEARER LONGER...CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPOT
DOWN TO 10 OR JUST BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT SHOULD ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO REACH MID 30S DESPITE OVC SKIES.
GUIDANCE NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. IT APPEARS LEAD WAVE COULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHWEST THIRD OF
CWA DURING AFTERNOON SO INCREASED POPS SOME. THERMAL PROFILES AND
WET BULBS SUPPORT SNOW AS PTYPE. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST IN EXACT
EVOLUTION. LOOKS OVERALL TO BE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO...WITH
FORCING FROM MULTIPLE WAVES AND THERE POSSIBLY BEING A MINIMA IN
THIS SOMEWHERE OVER CWA. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD END UP
IN 1-2 INCH RANGE...THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT LESS BROAD THAN IN
CURRENT FORECAST. ARCTIC FRONT TRAILING FROM WEAK LOW OVER WISCONSIN
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER EXTREMELY COLD DAY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING IN -16 TO -19 AT 850 MB AIRMASS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN WILL THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CONUS AS IMPRESSIVELY DEEP SYSTEM OFF EAST
COAST AMPLIFIES THE PATTERN. HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER TO 35-40 ON
WEDNESDAY THANKS TO WAA AFTER MOST AREAS PLUMMET INTO TEENS BY
DAWN WEDS UNDER ARCTIC HIGH. FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN EJECT
ACROSS ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY...KEEPING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIED AND CAUSING STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THIS SYSTEM
WEST OF CWA...KEEPING US ON WARM SIDE AND PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN DOESNT APPEAR
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE TO SUPPORT THUNDER CHANCES AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM COULD COMPENSATE WITH GOOD
DYNAMICS. DIFFERENCES THEN INCREASE ON HOW FAST SYSTEM MOVES TO
EAST LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH LATEST RUN EUROPEAN INDICATING A
SLOWER TREND. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY COULD BE FOLLOWED ON ITS HEELS BY A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WORK WEEK.

RC

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
  A LAKE BREEZE EARLY THIS EVENING. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LAKE BREEZE AND HOW FAR INLAND IT MAY MOVE. WINDS REMAIN
NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS LAKESHORE. SHORT-TERM
AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE EITHER SLOWED ITS PUSH INLAND ACROSS ILLINOIS
OR KEEP IT EAST OF ORD/MDW. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AS TO
WHETHER THE LAKE BREEZE WILL ARRIVE AT ORD/MDW AND HAVE REMOVED IT
FROM THIS FORECAST. TRENDS WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST STILL POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM IN
MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS TURN BACK LIGHT WESTERLY MONDAY MORNING
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
ARRIVE AT RFD AFTER 18Z AND ORD AFTER 00Z...THUS NO MENTION IN
THIS FORECAST.

BKN STRATOCU DECK AROUND 4KFT HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST IL AND
THIS WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
MID CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LOWERING MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT STILL REMAINING VFR. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOW FOR
  POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE REACHING ORD/MDW. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...LGT SN/MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...SLGT CHC LGT SN/MVFR EARLY. BECOMING VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHC RA WED NGT.

THURSDAY...CHC RA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...CHC RA MAINLY EARLY.

SATURDAY...VFR.

RATZER

&&

.MARINE...
320 AM CDT

MAIN MARINE FORECAST FOCUS IS WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS
IN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF HIGHS/TROUGHS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BRIEFLY ELEVATED IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ON
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL REALLY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE LAKE TONIGHT. AFTER THE RIDGE
PASSES AND MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS COLD AIR AND A TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMBINE FORCES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL RELAX TUESDAY
EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES DO EXIST BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
MODELS WITH THE LOW BY THAT TIME...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT A PERIOD
OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

RATZER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 949 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2014

9 AM surface map showed sprawling 1035 MB late season Arctic high
extending south from Minnesota into northern Kansas and Missouri.
Brisk N/NNW winds continued to supply cold advection for
central/SE IL. Persistent northerly flow in the low levels has
brought a plume of Lake Michigan moisture south into eastern IL
primarily east of I-57 in the form of a broken stratocu deck.
Latest RAP forecast shows winds backing more to the NW over the
next couple hours which will allow these clouds to shift SE and
dissipate. Otherwise, sunny skies expected under subsidence
associated with the ridge axis, which shifts towards NW IL by 00Z.
This to keep NW winds going at 10-18 MPH, which combined with
unseasonably cold airmass (highs 15-20 degs below normal) will
produce wind chills in the teens this morning and 20s for most of
the afternoon.



&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2014

An area of stratocu has blossomed over eastern IL, associated with
moisture that had streamed south off Lake Michigan. Feel the bulk
of this will remain north/east of TAF sites however did include
scattered layer for KBMI/KCMI this afternoon. Ceilings could briefly
go broken at these sites at 3-4k ft. Otherwise mostly clear skies
elsewhere and through evening as high pressure ridge to our
northwest settles towards northern IL tonight. Initially brisk NNW
winds up to 15 kts this afternoon will diminish this evening,
gradually shifting around to the NE, and eventually light SE after
daybreak Monday as this high pushes east. The next disturbance
moving in from the west will spread mid clouds across central IL
late tonight, with ceilings lowering toward MVFR across the west
by 18Z/Mon. Any light snow should hold off until afternoon, but
did include VCSH at KPIA after 15Z.

25
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 302 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday

High pressure will settle southward into the region today,
providing dry but unseasonably cool conditions. Mid/high clouds
currently blanketing central Illinois will shift E/SE this
morning, leaving behind sunny skies by midday. Despite full
sunshine for much of the day, continued CAA on brisk northerly
winds will keep temperatures mainly in the 30s. Clear skies/light
winds beneath the ridge axis will create excellent radiational
cooling conditions this evening before clouds begin to increase
in advance of the next storm system after midnight. As a result,
overnight low temperatures will dip into the teens across the
board.

Short-wave energy currently evident on water vapor imagery over
British Columbia will dive southeastward tonight into Monday,
spreading clouds and precip into central Illinois. 00z Mar 23
models in excellent agreement in keeping precip west of the area
until Monday afternoon. Have therefore maintained a dry forecast
Monday morning, then introduced chance POPs along/west of I-57
during the afternoon. Despite afternoon highs in the middle to
upper 30s, forecast soundings continue to show quite a bit of dry
air below 850mb, suggesting ample evaporative cooling will allow
precip to fall as snow. Strongest lift and deepest moisture
coincide during the evening, so will increase POPs to likely at
that time. With above freezing surface temps, will not see much
snow accumulation prior to sunset, but once temps drop and snow
picks up after dark, a light accumulation of 1 inch or less will
be likely.

Given fast northwesterly flow, decided to trim POPs for Tuesday
morning, with just a slight chance lingering across the eastern
KILX CWA. Blustery and cold conditions will prevail in the wake of
the storm system on Tuesday. Northwesterly winds gusting to between
25 and 30 mph will create wind-chills in the single digits and
teens as actual air temperatures struggle to rise into the lower
to middle 30s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

Once early week system moves eastward, upper pattern will quickly
become zonal by the middle and end of the week. This will allow a
warming trend to develop, with high temperatures climbing back to
near normal in the lower to middle 50s by Thursday and Friday.
Meanwhile, a vigorous wave is expected to come onshore along the
West Coast, then track eastward into the Midwest by Thursday.
Increasing southerly flow ahead of the system may trigger some WAA
rain showers as early as Wednesday night with better chances
arriving on Thursday. As negatively tilted upper trough and
deepening surface low approach, showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will become more widespread by Thursday night. Low
will lift into the Great Lakes on Friday, dragging a cold front
though central Illinois. A few showers will linger along/ahead of
the boundary on Friday followed by dry and mild weather for next
weekend.

Barnes


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1109 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
656 AM CDT

HAD ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON TRENDS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO INCLUDE CATEGORICAL THROUGH MID MORNING FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY
IN EASTERN COOK COUNTY AND LAKE/WESTERN PORTER IN INDIANA.
RECEIVED AN ESTIMATED REPORT OF 1.5 INCHES ACCUMULATED IN ROGERS
PARK...AND AREA WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND SLOW
TRAVEL. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSING
MORE INTO SOUTHEASTERN COOK AND NW INDIANA WITH TIME THOUGH THERE
IS SOME CONCERN PER RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE THAT CONVERGENCE COULD
KEEP FOCUS A BIT FARTHER WEST FOR LONGER. EXPECTING UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW BY 10 AM...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO TWO
INCHES GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY HIGH REFLECTIVITY IN SNOW BAND.
LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS SHOULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE BEYOND MID
MORNING AS ACTIVITY SLIDES SOUTHEAST...BUT DAYSHIFT WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEAR-TERM TRENDS. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH 15Z TO COVER THE HAZARDS WITH THE ONGOING SNOW.

RC

//PREV DISCUSSION...
343 AM CDT

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NW INDIANA AND POSSIBLY COOK COUNTY
IL...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH THROUGH MID WEEK AND
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

IF YOU WOKE UP AND DIDNT KNOW WHAT TIME OF YEAR IT WAS...YOU WOULD
THINK BASED ON THE SURFACE AND UPPER PATTERN THIS MORNING THAT IT
WAS JANUARY AND NOT LATE MARCH. A DEEP COLD TROUGH IS NOTED ON W/V
CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF NOAM. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AVERAGING 1035 MB STRETCHES
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 00Z RAOB PICKED
UP ON 850 MB TEMPS OF -15 AND -18C RESPECTIVELY AT GRB AND MPX
RESPECTIVELY AND IT IS THIS AIR MASS THAT IS FIRING UP LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND WILL BRING US MID WINTER COLD TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REGARDING THE LAKE EFFECT: DESPITE RELYING MAINLY FROM MOISTURE FLUX
FROM COLD LAKE MAINLY IN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS...GOOD CONVERGENCE
AND IMPROVING THERMAL PROFILES FOR LAKE EFFECT HAVE GENERATED
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOCAL WRF MODEL
BASICALLY SOLE GUIDANCE THAT HAD BEEN BULLISH FOR LAKE EFFECT INTO
OUR AREA...BUT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED LIKELY POPS. GIVEN
CURRENT WIND CONVERGENCE SET-UP WOULD EXPECT ACITIVITY TO GENERALLY
FOCUS INTO LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING EAST AND
DISSIPATING. THERE COULD BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH OR TWO BEFORE THIS OCCURS. AM CONCERNED WITH MOST RECENT RUNS
OF RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MESO-LOW FORMATION AND
REORGANIZATION OF CONVERGENCE INTO COOK COUNTY. ALSO PURE
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD SUGGEST COOK COUNTY COULD GET CLIPPED...SO WILL
INCLUDE CHANCE POPS ON IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT AND LET INCOMING SHIFT
MONITOR NEAR-TERM TRENDS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT: WHILE UPSTREAM OBS ARE ALREADY
EXCEPTIONAL FOR THE COLD AIR MASS PLUNGING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA
TODAY/850 MB OF -16C OR COLDER ARE IN COLDEST 1% THIS TIME OF
YEAR. NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON BRINGING CORE OF COLD TO THE
CWA...WHILE OTHER 00Z RUNS TOOK THE BRUNT OF IT JUST TO OUR EAST.
IF WE DO INDEED RECEIVE THE CORE OF THE COLD...HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN LOW 30S NORTH AND LOW-MID 30S SOUTH...WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
POSSIBLE FAR NORTH...MAY BE A HAIR TOO WARM. HOWEVER...BANKING ON
LATE MARCH SUN OUTSIDE LAKE EFFECT AREAS TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST
HIGHS. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST PRIOR TO DAWN. MAINTAIEND
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MOSTLY MID TEENS OUTSIDE CHICAGO HEAT ISLAND.
IF SKIES REMAIN CLEARER LONGER...CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPOT
DOWN TO 10 OR JUST BELOW.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT SHOULD ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO REACH MID 30S DESPITE OVC SKIES.
GUIDANCE NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. IT APPEARS LEAD WAVE COULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHWEST THIRD OF
CWA DURING AFTERNOON SO INCREASED POPS SOME. THERMAL PROFILES AND
WET BULBS SUPPORT SNOW AS PTYPE. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST IN EXACT
EVOLUTION. LOOKS OVERALL TO BE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO...WITH
FORCING FROM MULTIPLE WAVES AND THERE POSSIBLY BEING A MINIMA IN
THIS SOMEWHERE OVER CWA. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD END UP
IN 1-2 INCH RANGE...THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT LESS BROAD THAN IN
CURRENT FORECAST. ARCTIC FRONT TRAILING FROM WEAK LOW OVER WISCONSIN
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER EXTREMELY COLD DAY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING IN -16 TO -19 AT 850 MB AIRMASS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PATTERN WILL THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CONUS AS IMPRESSIVELY DEEP SYSTEM OFF EAST
COAST AMPLIFIES THE PATTERN. HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER TO 35-40 ON
WEDNESDAY THANKS TO WAA AFTER MOST AREAS PLUMMET INTO TEENS BY
DAWN WEDS UNDER ARCTIC HIGH. FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN EJECT
ACROSS ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY...KEEPING
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIED AND CAUSING STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THIS SYSTEM
WEST OF CWA...KEEPING US ON WARM SIDE AND PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN DOESNT APPEAR
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE TO SUPPORT THUNDER CHANCES AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM COULD COMPENSATE WITH GOOD
DYNAMICS. DIFFERENCES THEN INCREASE ON HOW FAST SYSTEM MOVES TO
EAST LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH LATEST RUN EUROPEAN INDICATING A
SLOWER TREND. ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY COULD BE FOLLOWED ON ITS HEELS BY A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WORK WEEK.

RC

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE LAKE
  BREEZE AT MDW AROUND 23Z...AND ORD 00Z-01Z. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE
NORTHEAST NEAR THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS LAKE BREEZE
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING WHEN OR IF IT WILL REACH ORD...AND HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL AT ORD UNTIL 01Z WITH THIS UPDATE. CMS

PREVIOUS 12Z DISCUSSION...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING NORTHWEST INDIANA AND COOK
COUNTY IL EARLY THIS AM WITH REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR ALOFT.
SNOW SHOWERS ABOUT AS FAR INLAND AS MDW...WITH MVFR CIG AND
POTENTIAL BRIEF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE THERE. SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF ORD...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES AND
BRIEF MVFR CIG THERE THOUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST WILL BE
THROUGH SNOW SHOWERS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST-
SOUTHEAST AFTER MID-MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE LAKE. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS STILL SHOWING OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
EARLY THIS AM...THOUGH GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DEVELOPS EASTWARD LATER TODAY.
SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POTENTIAL WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ORD/MDW/GYY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION DIMINISHES
BY THAT TIME. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST OR VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BACKING LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY
MORNING.

RATZER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* HIGH FOR A LAKE BREEZE FORMING THIS AFTERNOON...LOW FOR TIMING/
  ARRIVAL AT ORD/MDW. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

MONDAY NIGHT...LGT SN/MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...SLGT CHC LGT SN/MVFR EARLY. BECOMING VFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHC RA WED NGT.

THURSDAY...CHC RA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...CHC RA MAINLY EARLY.

SATURDAY...VFR.

RATZER

&&

.MARINE...
320 AM CDT

MAIN MARINE FORECAST FOCUS IS WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS
IN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF HIGHS/TROUGHS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BRIEFLY ELEVATED IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ON
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL REALLY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE LAKE TONIGHT. AFTER THE RIDGE
PASSES AND MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS COLD AIR AND A TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMBINE FORCES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL RELAX TUESDAY
EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES DO EXIST BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
MODELS WITH THE LOW BY THAT TIME...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT A PERIOD
OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE LOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

RATZER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM
     SUNDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
949 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 949 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2014

9 AM surface map showed sprawling 1035 MB late season Arctic high
extending south from Minnesota into northern Kansas and Missouri.
Brisk N/NNW winds continued to supply cold advection for
central/SE IL. Persistent northerly flow in the low levels has
brought a plume of Lake Michigan moisture south into eastern IL
primarily east of I-57 in the form of a broken stratocu deck.
Latest RAP forecast shows winds backing more to the NW over the
next couple hours which will allow these clouds to shift SE and
dissipate. Otherwise, sunny skies expected under subsidence
associated with the ridge axis, which shifts towards NW IL by 00Z.
This to keep NW winds going at 10-18 MPH, which combined with
unseasonably cold airmass (highs 15-20 degs below normal) will
produce wind chills in the teens this morning and 20s for most of
the afternoon.

25
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 658 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2014

Quiet/predominantly VFR weather conditions expected across the
central Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. The
main exception is for a few hours this morning at KCMI, where a
MVFR cig may sneak in off Lake Michigan at times. Northerly winds,
gusty at times today, will trend northeast and diminish tonight as
a ridge of high pressure passes through the area.

Bak
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 302 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday

High pressure will settle southward into the region today,
providing dry but unseasonably cool conditions. Mid/high clouds
currently blanketing central Illinois will shift E/SE this
morning, leaving behind sunny skies by midday. Despite full
sunshine for much of the day, continued CAA on brisk northerly
winds will keep temperatures mainly in the 30s. Clear skies/light
winds beneath the ridge axis will create excellent radiational
cooling conditions this evening before clouds begin to increase
in advance of the next storm system after midnight. As a result,
overnight low temperatures will dip into the teens across the
board.

Short-wave energy currently evident on water vapor imagery over
British Columbia will dive southeastward tonight into Monday,
spreading clouds and precip into central Illinois. 00z Mar 23
models in excellent agreement in keeping precip west of the area
until Monday afternoon. Have therefore maintained a dry forecast
Monday morning, then introduced chance POPs along/west of I-57
during the afternoon. Despite afternoon highs in the middle to
upper 30s, forecast soundings continue to show quite a bit of dry
air below 850mb, suggesting ample evaporative cooling will allow
precip to fall as snow. Strongest lift and deepest moisture
coincide during the evening, so will increase POPs to likely at
that time. With above freezing surface temps, will not see much
snow accumulation prior to sunset, but once temps drop and snow
picks up after dark, a light accumulation of 1 inch or less will
be likely.

Given fast northwesterly flow, decided to trim POPs for Tuesday
morning, with just a slight chance lingering across the eastern
KILX CWA. Blustery and cold conditions will prevail in the wake of
the storm system on Tuesday. Northwesterly winds gusting to between
25 and 30 mph will create wind-chills in the single digits and
teens as actual air temperatures struggle to rise into the lower
to middle 30s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

Once early week system moves eastward, upper pattern will quickly
become zonal by the middle and end of the week. This will allow a
warming trend to develop, with high temperatures climbing back to
near normal in the lower to middle 50s by Thursday and Friday.
Meanwhile, a vigorous wave is expected to come onshore along the
West Coast, then track eastward into the Midwest by Thursday.
Increasing southerly flow ahead of the system may trigger some WAA
rain showers as early as Wednesday night with better chances
arriving on Thursday. As negatively tilted upper trough and
deepening surface low approach, showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will become more widespread by Thursday night. Low
will lift into the Great Lakes on Friday, dragging a cold front
though central Illinois. A few showers will linger along/ahead of
the boundary on Friday followed by dry and mild weather for next
weekend.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 635 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY NIGHT THEN OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PCPN (RAIN/SLEET/WET SNOW MIX) QUICKLY SKEDADDLING TOWARDS THE
COAST WITH SAT LOOP INDCTG CLOUDS QUICKLY BREAKING UP WITH ONLY
SCT-BKN AC ACROSS WRN MOST COUNTYS ERLY THIS EVENING. WILL ADJUST
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE QUICKER TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SKIES
EXPECTED TO BECOME M CLR TO PT CLOUDY BY MIDNITE AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV MSLP) BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A STRONG SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD/DRY AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE M20S-L30S (~10
DEGS BELOW NORMAL).

MODIFYING COLD/DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY, WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.
WHILE H85 TEMPS -2 STD DEV...LATE MARCH SUN WILL HELP WARM TEMPS
INTO THE MID 40S INLAND (~15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). N-NE WINDS 10-15
MPH WILL RESULT IN AN ESPECIALLY BREEZY AND BRISK DAY OVER COASTAL
AREAS...WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S THANKS TO
COLD WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE. WIND VEER AROUND TO THE S-SE AND CLOUDS INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S-LOW
30S.

STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE MON
NIGHT AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SHARPENS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS TUESDAY (-2 STD DEV 500MB HEIGHTS)...RESULTING IN
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND A STRONG PV
ANOMALY WILL RESULT IN RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SFC LOW AS
IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND GENERAL SFC LOW
TRACK AND STRENGTH AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE SE COAST AND PUSHES
WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WHICH COULD HAVE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WRT SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.
EXPECT TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM. INLAND, EXPECT
SOME MOISTURE TO PUSH NE ACROSS PIEDMONT/METRO REGION TUESDAY
MORNING AS UPPER SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON NEG TILT.
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE QUICK TO DEPART TUESDAY AFTN AS LOW-MIDLVL
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS RAPIDLY TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
SECOND AREA IS WITH SECOND AREA OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTED
NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY AFTN EVENING. THIS MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE TUE NGT. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND IN FACT LIKELY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT (METRO RIC)...WITH UPPER TROUGH. EXPECTATION
REMAINS THAT WITH ONSET OF PCPN COMING AT OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE...LGT PCPN RATES, MARCH SUN AND MARGINAL BL TEMPS WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MAJOR IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION ISSUES.
FARTHER SOUTH, EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET/RN RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH
CENTRAL VA, TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WITH
LGT RAIN FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST IN BY LATE MORNING. CUT BACK TO
SHOWERS GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE RACES OFF TO THE
NE, BUT DID HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO THE NE LOCAL AREA.
STRONG SURGE OF COLD/DRY AIR EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CLEARING, WINDY AND COLD TUES
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON WED...WITH A CHILLY,
DRYING W-NW WIND PREVENTING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO FAR DESPITE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY INTO THE MID-UPR
40S INLAND, WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY WX INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PCPN COMES FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THEN THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN BY
NEXT SUNDAY. P-TYPE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE MILDER PATTERN.
MILDER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SEASONABLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 25-30...THEN
WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST TAF SITES WILL START OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT 18Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF RIC WHERE CEILINGS WILL FALL TO 3KFT OR LESS
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WITH LIGHT RAIN. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
EAST TO ALL OTHER SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP
PUSHES THROUGH. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AT
RIC AROUND 22Z...THEN EXIT THE COAST AROUND 00Z. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER BRIEF CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONT/SURGE LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
WITH JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE WITH THE LIGHT
RAIN. IN GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER
00Z. NE WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT AT KORF/ECG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...GENLY 10 KT ELSEWHERE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 04-06Z  TONIGHT AS N/NW WINDS BRING DRIER
AIR BACK TO THE AREA. MIXED PCPN WITH PERIODS OF IFR ARE INDICATED
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING CHC FOR SNOW TUE
EVENING FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW WINDS AT ALL SITES LATER TUE NIGHT
INTO MIDDAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL
ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BRIEF LULL
BETWEEN TWO SURGES OF COLD AIR TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL NOT AFFECT THE
SCA`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AS THIS LULL IN WINDS IS EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT IN DURATION. THE 2ND SURGE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE
STRONGER OF THE TWO. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR FOR LATE MARCH WILL ALLOW
FOR OPTIMAL MIXING AND SHOULD HAVE SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ALL ZONES
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH N/NW WINDS AVERAGING 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON AFTN...ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO TAKE OVER. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST
TUE MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT CONFIDENCE FOR GALES IS INCREASING FOR TUE NIGHT/WED
AS VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT FOR COASTAL WATERS AND 35-40 KT ELSEWHERE IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR NOW. IF THE SYSTEM WERE TO SLOW ITS
MOVEMENT NORTH...COULD EVEN SEE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS WED. BECAUSE THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WOULD
NOT BE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT (5TH PERIOD)...WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE
WATCH ATTM. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH 4-5 FT TUES
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634>638-650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JDM/LKB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 414 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY NIGHT THEN OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...MID-AFTN RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING PCPN
PROPAGATING E-NE ACROSS THE CWA AS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S LATE THIS AFTN. HAVE ALSO HAD A FEW REPORTS OF
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES/ICE PELLETS MIXING IN AS PCPN ENDS ACROSS FAR
NW COUNTIES. WEAK PCPN RATE/WARM BL WILL PREVENT ANY OPERATIONAL
ISSUES, BUT IT CERTAINLY UNDERSCORES THE COLDER AIRMASS HEADED
OUR WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CHC POPS WEST/CATEGORICAL
OUT EAST SLOWLY RAMP DOWN THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS SLUG OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST. QUICK CLEARING TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV MSLP) BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A
STRONG SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD/DRY AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 20S- LOW 30S
(~10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL).

MODIFYING COLD/DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY, WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.
WHILE H85 TEMPS -2 STD DEV...LATE MARCH SUN WILL HELP WARM TEMPS
INTO THE MID 40S INLAND (~15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). N-NE WINDS 10-15
MPH WILL RESULT IN AN ESPECIALLY BREEZY AND BRISK DAY OVER COASTAL
AREAS...WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S THANKS TO
COLD WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE. WIND VEER AROUND TO THE S-SE AND CLOUDS INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S-LOW
30S.

STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE MON
NIGHT AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SHARPENS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS TUESDAY (-2 STD DEV 500MB HEIGHTS)...RESULTING IN
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND A STRONG PV
ANOMALY WILL RESULT IN RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SFC LOW AS
IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND GENERAL SFC LOW
TRACK AND STRENGTH AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE SE COAST AND PUSHES
WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WHICH COULD HAVE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WRT SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.
EXPECT TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM. INLAND, EXPECT
SOME MOISTURE TO PUSH NE ACROSS PIEDMONT/METRO REGION TUESDAY
MORNING AS UPPER SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON NEG TILT.
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE QUICK TO DEPART TUESDAY AFTN AS LOW-MIDLVL
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS RAPIDLY TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
SECOND AREA IS WITH SECOND AREA OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTED
NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY AFTN EVENING. THIS MOISTURE
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY LATE TUE NGT. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND IN FACT LIKELY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT (METRO RIC)...WITH UPPER TROUGH. EXPECTATION
REMAINS THAT WITH ONSET OF PCPN COMING AT OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE...LGT PCPN RATES, MARCH SUN AND MARGINAL BL TEMPS WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MAJOR IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION ISSUES.
FARTHER SOUTH, EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET/RN RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH
CENTRAL VA, TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WITH
LGT RAIN FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST IN BY LATE MORNING. CUT BACK TO
SHOWERS GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE RACES OFF TO THE
NE, BUT DID HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO THE NE LOCAL AREA.
STRONG SURGE OF COLD/DRY AIR EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CLEARING, WINDY AND COLD TUES
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON WED...WITH A CHILLY,
DRYING W-NW WIND PREVENTING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO FAR DESPITE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY INTO THE MID-UPR
40S INLAND, WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY WX INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PCPN COMES FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THEN THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN BY
NEXT SUNDAY. P-TYPE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE MILDER PATTERN.
MILDER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SEASONABLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 25-30...THEN
WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST TAF SITES WILL START OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT 18Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF RIC WHERE CEILINGS WILL FALL TO 3KFT OR LESS
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WITH LIGHT RAIN. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
EAST TO ALL OTHER SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP
PUSHES THROUGH. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AT
RIC AROUND 22Z...THEN EXIT THE COAST AROUND 00Z. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER BRIEF CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONT/SURGE LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
WITH JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE WITH THE LIGHT
RAIN. IN GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER
00Z. NE WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT AT KORF/ECG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...GENLY 10 KT ELSEWHERE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 04-06Z  TONIGHT AS N/NW WINDS BRING DRIER
AIR BACK TO THE AREA. MIXED PCPN WITH PERIODS OF IFR ARE INDICATED
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING CHC FOR SNOW TUE
EVENING FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW WINDS AT ALL SITES LATER TUE NIGHT
INTO MIDDAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL
ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BRIEF LULL
BETWEEN TWO SURGES OF COLD AIR TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL NOT AFFECT THE
SCA`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AS THIS LULL IN WINDS IS EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT IN DURATION. THE 2ND SURGE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE
STRONGER OF THE TWO. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR FOR LATE MARCH WILL ALLOW
FOR OPTIMAL MIXING AND SHOULD HAVE SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ALL ZONES
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH N/NW WINDS AVERAGING 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON AFTN...ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO TAKE OVER. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST
TUE MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT CONFIDENCE FOR GALES IS INCREASING FOR TUE NIGHT/WED
AS VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT FOR COASTAL WATERS AND 35-40 KT ELSEWHERE IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR NOW. IF THE SYSTEM WERE TO SLOW ITS
MOVEMENT NORTH...COULD EVEN SEE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS WED. BECAUSE THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WOULD
NOT BE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT (5TH PERIOD)...WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE
WATCH ATTM. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH 4-5 FT TUES
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634>638-650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JDM/LKB















AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 407 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY NIGHT THEN OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...MID-AFTN RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING PCPN
PROPAGATING E-NE ACROSS THE CWA AS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPS FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S LATE THIS AFTN. HAVE ALSO HAD A FEW REPORTS OF
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES/ICE PELLETS MIXING IN AS PCPN ENDS ACROSS FAR
NW COUNTIES. WEAK PCPN RATE/WARM BL WILL PREVENT ANY OPERATIONAL
ISSUES, BUT IT CERTAINLY UNDERSCORES THE COLDER AIRMASS HEADED
OUR WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CHC POPS WEST/CATEGORICAL
OUT EAST SLOWLY RAMP DOWN THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS SLUG OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST. QUICK CLEARING TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV MSLP) BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A
STRONG SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD/DRY AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 20S- LOW 30S
(~10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL).

MODIFYING COLD/DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY, WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.
WHILE H85 TEMPS -2 STD DEV...LATE MARCH SUN WILL HELP WARM TEMPS
INTO THE MID 40S INLAND (~15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). N-NE WINDS 10-15
MPH WILL RESULT IN AN ESPECIALLY BREEZY AND BRISK DAY OVER COASTAL
AREAS...WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S THANKS TO
COLD WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE. WIND VEER AROUND TO THE S-SE AND CLOUDS INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S-LOW
30S.

STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE MON
NIGHT AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SHARPENS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS TUESDAY (-2 STD DEV 500MB HEIGHTS)...RESULTING IN
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND A STRONG PV
ANOMALY WILL RESULT IN RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SFC LOW AS
IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND GENERAL SFC LOW
TRACK AND STRENGTH AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF THE SE COAST AND PUSHES
WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME
SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WHICH COULD HAVE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WRT SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.
EXPECT TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM. INLAND, EXPECT
SOME MOISTURE TO PUSH ACROSS PIEDMONT/METRO REGION TUESDAY MORNING
AS UPPER SYSTEM INTENSIFIES MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
QUICK TO DEPART TUESDAY AFTN AS LOW-MIDLVL CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
RAPIDLY TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND AREA IS WITH
SECOND AREA OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN TUESDAY AFTN EVENING. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
LATE TUE NGT. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND IN FACT LIKELY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT (METRO
RIC)...WITH UPPER TROUGH. EXPECTATION REMAINS THAT WITH ONSET OF
PCPN COMING AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...LGT PCPN RATES, MARCH SUN
AND MARGINAL BL TEMPS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MAJOR
IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATION ISSUES. FARTHER SOUTH, EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET/RN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 58 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA, TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WITH LGT RAIN FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST IN
BY LATE MORNING. CUT BACK TO SHOWERS GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST
AS MOISTURE RACES OFF TO THE NW, BUT DID HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL WRAP AROUND
PRECIP INTO THE NE LOCAL AREA. STRONG SURGE OF COLD/DRY AIR
EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. CLEARING, WINDY AND COLD TUES NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO
NEAR 30.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON WED...WITH A CHILLY,
DRYING W-NW WIND PREVENTING TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO FAR DESPITE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY INTO THE MID-UPR
40S INLAND, WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRY WX INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PCPN COMES FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THEN THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN BY
NEXT SUNDAY. P-TYPE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE MILDER PATTERN.
MILDER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. SEASONABLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 25-30...THEN
WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST TAF SITES WILL START OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT 18Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF RIC WHERE CEILINGS WILL FALL TO 3KFT OR LESS
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WITH LIGHT RAIN. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
EAST TO ALL OTHER SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP
PUSHES THROUGH. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AT
RIC AROUND 22Z...THEN EXIT THE COAST AROUND 00Z. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER BRIEF CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONT/SURGE LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
WITH JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE WITH THE LIGHT
RAIN. IN GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER
00Z. NE WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT AT KORF/ECG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...GENLY 10 KT ELSEWHERE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 04-06Z  TONIGHT AS N/NW WINDS BRING DRIER
AIR BACK TO THE AREA. MIXED PCPN WITH PERIODS OF IFR ARE INDICATED
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING CHC FOR SNOW TUE
EVENING FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW WINDS AT ALL SITES LATER TUE NIGHT
INTO MIDDAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL
ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BRIEF LULL
BETWEEN TWO SURGES OF COLD AIR TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL NOT AFFECT THE
SCA`S THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AS THIS LULL IN WINDS IS EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT IN DURATION. THE 2ND SURGE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE
STRONGER OF THE TWO. IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR FOR LATE MARCH WILL ALLOW
FOR OPTIMAL MIXING AND SHOULD HAVE SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ALL ZONES
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH N/NW WINDS AVERAGING 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON AFTN...ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO TAKE OVER. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST
TUE MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT CONFIDENCE FOR GALES IS INCREASING FOR TUE NIGHT/WED
AS VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT FOR COASTAL WATERS AND 35-40 KT ELSEWHERE IN
THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR NOW. IF THE SYSTEM WERE TO SLOW ITS
MOVEMENT NORTH...COULD EVEN SEE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS WED. BECAUSE THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WOULD
NOT BE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT (5TH PERIOD)...WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE
WATCH ATTM. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH 4-5 FT TUES
NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634>638-650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JDM/LKB












AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 203 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY...THEN MOVES OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES MONDAY NIGHT THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA WELL INTO THE CAROLINAS AT
MIDDAY. STILL ON TRACK TO SEE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY.
IR SAT SHOWING COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE TN VLY AND WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING, COINCIDENT WITH BEST OVERRUNNING MOISTURE.
SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO ACCESS GULF MOISTURE...BUT ONLY LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION DUE TO DRY MIDLVLS
COURTESY OF DOWNSLOPE/WLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
(MILDER AIR TO THE SE). EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES IN. RAIN WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH
ABOUT 02Z, WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OUT IN THE PIEDMONT POSSIBLE BY
SUNSET. GIVEN THE QUICK MOTION OF THE SYSTEM (DUE TO PROGRESSIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW), WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HIGH POP/LOW
QPF IS EXPECTED. CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH OF RIC-PHF-WAL LINE, WITH
HIGH END CHC TO LIKELY POP NORTHERN NECK/EASTERN SHORE FOR THE
MID-LATE AFTN. QPF REMAINS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE CONFINED TO SRN VA AND NE NC.

STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV MSLP) BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF COLD/DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR SUN NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL
INTO THE MID 20S-LOW 30S (~10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
MODIFYING COLD/DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS H85
TEMPS WILL BE -2 STD DEV. HOWEVER...LATE MARCH SUN WILL HELP WARM
TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S INLAND (~15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). N-NE WINDS
10-15 MPH WILL RESULT IN COLDER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST...WITH
TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S THANKS TO COLD WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
S-SE AND CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S.

STRONG COASTAL LOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE MON
NIGHT AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE ERN CONUS (-2 STD DEV
500MB HEIGHTS)...RESULTING IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS AND A STRONG PV ANOMALY WILL RESULT IN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LOW AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG THE
SE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
PATTERN AND GENERAL SFC LOW TRACK AND STRENGTH AS THE LOW LIFTS
ALONG THE SE COAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES DO EXIST WHICH COULD HAVE
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WRT SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA.
HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO A SLOWER CMC/ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION WITH THIS
PACKAGE, WHICH MAKES A BIT MORE SENSE THAN THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE/FLATTER GFS SOLUTION GIVEN THE STRONG, DIGGING
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM. THIS SOLUTION DOES BRING A FEW COMPLICATIONS
HOWEVER. A SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD PREVENT PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE AND SOUTHERN ENERGY UNTIL LATER WED/WED NIGHT...AND BY
THEN SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. THUS, ONLY
LIGHT QPF IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SO
WHILE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND IN FACT LIKELY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH UPPER TROUGH...EXPECTATION ATTM IS THAT WITH ONLY
LGT SNOW, MARCH SUN AND MARGINAL BL TEMPS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRECLUDE ANY MAJOR IMPACT OR ACCUMULATION ISSUES. FARTHER SOUTH,
EXPECT A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR
IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA, TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, WITH LGT RAIN FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST IN THE AFTN. FROM
THERE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN A BIT WITH A FEW DETAILS YET
TO BE IRONED OUT. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO THE
NE LOCAL AREA. STRONG SURGE OF COLD/DRY AIR EXPECTED TUES NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CLEARING AND COLD
TUES NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FOR DRY WX. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PCPN MAY COME AGAIN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. P-TYPE
WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE MILDER PATTERN. CHILLY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. MILDER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
SEASONABLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS 25-30...THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST TAF SITES WILL START OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT 18Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF RIC WHERE CEILINGS WILL FALL TO 3KFT OR LESS
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WITH LIGHT RAIN. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
EAST TO ALL OTHER SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 20Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP
PUSHES THROUGH. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AT
RIC AROUND 22Z...THEN EXIT THE COAST AROUND 00Z. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER BRIEF CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONT/SURGE LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
WITH JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY POSSBILE WITH THE LIGHT
RAIN. IN GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER
00Z. NE WINDS WILL AVG 10-15 KT AT KORF/ECG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...GENLY 10 KT ELSEWHERE.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 04-06Z  TONIGHT AS N/NW WINDS BRING DRIER
AIR BACK TO THE AREA. MIXED PCPN WITH PERIODS OF IFR ARE INDICATED
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING CHC FOR SNOW TUE
EVENING FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW WINDS AT ALL SITES LATER TUE NIGHT
INTO MIDDAY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME OVER THE MIDDLE AND NORTHERN BAY THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTN AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTHERN BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...BUT DUE TO THE SHORT
DURATION...HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS HEADLINE TIMING TO COVER THE
2ND SURGE LATER TONIGHT (WHICH IS THE STRONGER ONE). IMPRESSIVE
COLD AIR FOR LATE MARCH WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL MIXING AND SHOULD
HAVE SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ALL ZONES OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING
WITH N/NW WINDS AVERAGING 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON AFTN...ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO TAKE OVER. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST
TUE MORNING...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. SOME
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT CONFIDENCE FOR GALES IS INCREASING FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED AS VERY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT FOR COASTAL WATERS AND 35-40 KT
ELSEWHERE IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR NOW. IF THE SYSTEM WERE TO
SLOW ITS MOVEMENT NORTH...COULD EVEN SEE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ635>637-650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LKB/JAO
MARINE...JDM/LKB








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

 218 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY SPRING SNOWS OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

PUSHED THE SNOW SHOWERS INLAND BASED ON THE SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES. THE DRY AIR DOESN`T SEEM TO AFFECTING THE BANDS MUCH AS
THE OPEN WATER ON THE WEST SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS. THERE IS A
SHARP LINE OF WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS STOP NORTH OF A LINE FROM
KMGN TO KOSC. ALTHOUGH, THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEVELOPMENT FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO AROUND KSLH/KPZQ/KAPN IN NE LOWER. WILL WATCH THESE
AND SEE IF THEY BECOME MORE THAN FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

UPDATED THE GRIDS EARLIER, BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE MORE CHANGES AS
THE LAKE STREAMERS ARE CONTINUING TO DEPOSIT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
INTO NW LOWER, MAINLY WEST OF US-131 AND SOUTH OF M-32. WHILE MOST
PLACES ARE GETTING FLURRIES NEAR THESE BANDS, THERE AREA SOME
PLACES THAT WILL GET MINOR TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES HAVE ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPED INTO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS STREAMING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LENGTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY INTO THE TVC AREA. LATEST OBS FROM MBL ALSO SUGGEST SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION WITH VSBYS FALLING TO 3SM. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR SW
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING/HEATING LENDS TO
DISORGANIZATION OF LAKE BANDING. ANY NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
WELL UNDER AN INCH. REST OF OUR CWA WILL SEE SCT/BKN LAKE CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES THRU THE DAY. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHWOODS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

...RIDICULOUSLY COLD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MARCH!...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

OVERVIEW: FLOOD GATES TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR HAVE
OPENED...COURTESY OF DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
LATEST HIGH RES RUC GUIDANCE HAS -20C H8 BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA AT THIS EARLY HOUR...NEARLY 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (WAS ALREADY -18C ON
LOCAL 00Z SOUNDING). IMPRESSIVE COLD INDEED! REMNANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT/ASSOCIATED WINDS HAVE KEPT SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM
TANKING TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL GIVEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. STILL...CURRENT READINGS FALLING INTO
AND THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS COLD ENOUGH FOR SURE...AND ARE A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. DESPITE THESE
COLD CONDITIONS AND OPEN POCKETS OF GREAT LAKES WATER...DRY
AIRMASS AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE TAKEN THEIR COLLECTIVE TOLL
ON LAKE RESPONSE...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES UNDER NNW
FLOW STCU DECK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS AND
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.

FORECAST DETAILS: HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST CENTERS ON
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL NO DOUBT REMAIN ON THE FRIGID SIDE. LATE
MARCH DIURNAL TREND WILL TRY ITS BEST TO MODIFY THINGS A TOUCH
TODAY...BUT WILL LARGELY LOSE THE BATTLE GIVEN -20C H8 AIR OVERHEAD.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S PER MULTI-GUIDANCE BLENDS...WHICH FITS
EXPECTED BL THERMAL PROGS/DIURNAL RESPONSE. CLOUD/LAKE SNOW TRENDS A
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE INSISTS IN
SPIKE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY...ALTHOUGH BACKWARD RUN
TRAJECTORIES SHOW NO UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCE. COLD ENOUGH
AIRMASS AND ENOUGH OPEN WATER AREAS TO GET SOME DECENT LAKE
RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS ABOUT EXPECTED SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE HELP AND DEPTH OF CBL ON HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP
FLURRY MENTION FOR NOW OFF THE BIG WATERS...WITH EXPECTED DIURNAL
STCU RESPONSE UNDER COLD DOME LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
GENERATING FLURRIES AREA-WIDE (MUCH LIKE WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
YESTERDAY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA).

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS
AND DEEP DRYING ENDING LAKE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. ABOVE SHOULD RESULT IN A
REALLY GOOD NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE...AND WITH SUCH A COLD
AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE...REALLY LIKE THE COLDER END OF THE
GUIDANCE SPECTRUM (MAV MOS). WILL EVEN UNDERCUT THESE A TAD...
RESULTING IN LOWS BY SUNRISE MONDAY RANGING FROM ZERO TO TEN
BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL HANG ON THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK (AT LEAST) AS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLIDES OVER
MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN SHIFTS EAST OF OUR STATE BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS
FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH AND TRACK THRU OUR CWA.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...AND MAIN LOW AND STRONGEST LIFT REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...CHANCE POPS ARE STILL CERTAINLY
WARRANTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECTATION OF LIGHT
QPF SHOULD RESULT IN NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND UP TO ANOTHER INCH ON TUESDAY. FROPA BY TUESDAY EVENING
SHOULD BRING ALL PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR BUILD INTO MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 20S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MONDAY NIGHT AND ONCE
AGAIN PLUMMETING BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL EXTEND INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL. OUR
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT MICHIGAN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HEAD NE INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE ORIGIN OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND NOW TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER THRU LWR MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY VS. THRU LAKE SUPERIOR PER PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL EXPECT WARMER
AIR AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...LIKELY TAPING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO STILL EXPECT THE POTENTIAL OF MIXED PRECIP AND DESCENT QPF
GIVEN THE PROJECTED THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES. POPS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A BIG
CHALLENGE...AND WILL REMAIN RATHER GENERIC FOR NOW. PRECIP SHOULD BE
GENERALLY ALL SNOW BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL COME TO
AN END BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS STILL MAINLY IN THE 20S...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S FOR THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

EXTENDED THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT TVC/MBL/APN AS SNOW BANDS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BUT WITH THE SFC
HIGH MOVING INTO THE REGION, WE SHOULD SEE THE WIND CEASE OR
SWITCH DIRECTIONS, AND STOP THE SNOW SHOWERS. JUST AS WE CLEAR
SOME TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CLEAR OUT, EXPECTING MONDAY TO
START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...JL







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

 209 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM
ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY SPRING SNOWS OVER
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

PUSHED THE SNOW SHOWERS INLAND BASED ON THE SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES. THE DRY AIR DOESN`T SEEM TO AFFECTING THE BANDS MUCH AS
THE OPEN WATER ON THE WEST SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS. THERE IS A
SHARP LINE OF WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS STOP NORTH OF A LINE FROM
KMGN TO KOSC. ALTHOUGH, THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEVELOPMENT FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO AROUND KSLH/KPZQ/KAPN IN NE LOWER. WILL WATCH THESE
AND SEE IF THEY BECOME MORE THAN FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

UPDATED THE GRIDS EARLIER, BUT MAY HAVE TO MAKE MORE CHANGES AS
THE LAKE STREAMERS ARE CONTINUING TO DEPOSIT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
INTO NW LOWER, MAINLY WEST OF US-131 AND SOUTH OF M-32. WHILE MOST
PLACES ARE GETTING FLURRIES NEAR THESE BANDS, THERE AREA SOME
PLACES THAT WILL GET MINOR TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES HAVE ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPED INTO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS STREAMING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LENGTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY INTO THE TVC AREA. LATEST OBS FROM MBL ALSO SUGGEST SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION WITH VSBYS FALLING TO 3SM. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR SW
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING/HEATING LENDS TO
DISORGANIZATION OF LAKE BANDING. ANY NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
WELL UNDER AN INCH. REST OF OUR CWA WILL SEE SCT/BKN LAKE CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES THRU THE DAY. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHWOODS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

...RIDICULOUSLY COLD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MARCH!...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

OVERVIEW: FLOOD GATES TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR HAVE
OPENED...COURTESY OF DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
LATEST HIGH RES RUC GUIDANCE HAS -20C H8 BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA AT THIS EARLY HOUR...NEARLY 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (WAS ALREADY -18C ON
LOCAL 00Z SOUNDING). IMPRESSIVE COLD INDEED! REMNANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT/ASSOCIATED WINDS HAVE KEPT SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM
TANKING TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL GIVEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. STILL...CURRENT READINGS FALLING INTO
AND THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS COLD ENOUGH FOR SURE...AND ARE A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. DESPITE THESE
COLD CONDITIONS AND OPEN POCKETS OF GREAT LAKES WATER...DRY
AIRMASS AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE TAKEN THEIR COLLECTIVE TOLL
ON LAKE RESPONSE...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES UNDER NNW
FLOW STCU DECK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS AND
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.

FORECAST DETAILS: HIGH CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST CENTERS ON
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL NO DOUBT REMAIN ON THE FRIGID SIDE. LATE
MARCH DIURNAL TREND WILL TRY ITS BEST TO MODIFY THINGS A TOUCH
TODAY...BUT WILL LARGELY LOSE THE BATTLE GIVEN -20C H8 AIR OVERHEAD.
HIGHS IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S PER MULTI-GUIDANCE BLENDS...WHICH FITS
EXPECTED BL THERMAL PROGS/DIURNAL RESPONSE. CLOUD/LAKE SNOW TRENDS A
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE INSISTS IN
SPIKE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY...ALTHOUGH BACKWARD RUN
TRAJECTORIES SHOW NO UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCE. COLD ENOUGH
AIRMASS AND ENOUGH OPEN WATER AREAS TO GET SOME DECENT LAKE
RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS ABOUT EXPECTED SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE HELP AND DEPTH OF CBL ON HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP
FLURRY MENTION FOR NOW OFF THE BIG WATERS...WITH EXPECTED DIURNAL
STCU RESPONSE UNDER COLD DOME LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
GENERATING FLURRIES AREA-WIDE (MUCH LIKE WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED
YESTERDAY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA).

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS
AND DEEP DRYING ENDING LAKE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. ABOVE SHOULD RESULT IN A
REALLY GOOD NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE...AND WITH SUCH A COLD
AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE...REALLY LIKE THE COLDER END OF THE
GUIDANCE SPECTRUM (MAV MOS). WILL EVEN UNDERCUT THESE A TAD...
RESULTING IN LOWS BY SUNRISE MONDAY RANGING FROM ZERO TO TEN
BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL HANG ON THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK (AT LEAST) AS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLIDES OVER
MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN SHIFTS EAST OF OUR STATE BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS
FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH AND TRACK THRU OUR CWA.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...AND MAIN LOW AND STRONGEST LIFT REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...CHANCE POPS ARE STILL CERTAINLY
WARRANTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECTATION OF LIGHT
QPF SHOULD RESULT IN NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND UP TO ANOTHER INCH ON TUESDAY. FROPA BY TUESDAY EVENING
SHOULD BRING ALL PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR BUILD INTO MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 20S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MONDAY NIGHT AND ONCE
AGAIN PLUMMETING BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL EXTEND INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH STILL FIRMLY IN CONTROL. OUR
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT MICHIGAN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HEAD NE INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF IS FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE ORIGIN OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND NOW TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER THRU LWR MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY VS. THRU LAKE SUPERIOR PER PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL EXPECT WARMER
AIR AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...LIKELY TAPING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO STILL EXPECT THE POTENTIAL OF MIXED PRECIP AND DESCENT QPF
GIVEN THE PROJECTED THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES. POPS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A BIG
CHALLENGE...AND WILL REMAIN RATHER GENERIC FOR NOW. PRECIP SHOULD BE
GENERALLY ALL SNOW BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL COME TO
AN END BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER ONE LAST WELL BELOW NORMAL DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS STILL MAINLY IN THE 20S...TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S FOR THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE CLOUDS WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE NEAR TVC AND MBL.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR THRU TODAY...WITH
LAKE CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER
MOVES OVERHEAD. NW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN
TO GUST OF 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL AGAIN DIMINISH TO
BELOW 10 KTS WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...MR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...MR







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 319 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK CENTERED OVER ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE BLOCK AND ASSOCIATED HIGH AMPLITUDE
FLOW OFF THE ARCTIC SHOULD SEND TWO STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FCST AREA. A STORM COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE SECOND ARCTIC HIGH. A BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS POSSIBLE STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

SFC LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT STRETCHING FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TRACKS SOUTH TONIGHT AND DROPS
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP ARE SPLITTING THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY THROUGH THE MISSOURI BASIN AND THE CNTL ROCKIES PRODUCING
JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RESULT
IS A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING LOWS ON THE
WARM SIDE TONIGHT AND HIGHS COOL MONDAY.

THE BEST GUESS ON LOWS TONIGHT IS 20S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. THE RAP WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING GOOD SKILL WITH THE
TRAPPED MOISTURE AND STRATUS TODAY LIFTS THESE CLOUDS NORTH INTO THE
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE NAM THEN
MIXES THESE LOW CLOUDS OUT MONDAY AFTN WHILE REDEVELOPING SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTN ACROSS NRN NEB AS A SECOND STRONGER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY TRANSITIONS INTO ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...BELOW TO MUCH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AS MODIFIED
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR IN. A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE FRONT RANGE WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALONG THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE INTO SWRN NEBR OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER WITH H85 TEMPS ONLY RISING TO NEAR -7C
IN THE NORTHEAST...HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S EXPECTED...WHILE THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MUCH...MUCH WARMER ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES WITH STORM SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A FAST MOVING OPEN WAVE...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GEM INDICATE A CLOSED LOW AND TROWEL DEVELOPING. THE
ECMWF HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT THE PAST 3 RUNS AND PREFER ITS
SOLUTION BEST. THEREFORE POPS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 40-50 PERCENT
WITH SNOW SUPPORTED IN THE NCTRL AND RAIN IN THE SOUTH. FALLING
TEMPS AND WET BULB TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY SUPPORT SNOW CHANCES.
NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE ALSO FORECAST. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SPRING SNOW STORM IN THE REGION.

DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

THE SWATH OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH AND THEN INTERACT WITH A
SOUTHWARD MOVING ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ONGOING DISTURBANCE ACROSS SERN MT AND THE MODELS SUGGEST
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED MONDAY MORNING AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT AND
PERHAPS IMPROVE TO SCATTERED MVFR/VFR MONDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CDC











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 1146 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET
OF SNOW...AND REDUCE THE PROBABILITIES SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY REDUCE THE FORECAST AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. THE MAIN ISSUE
IS THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS THAT WILL NEED TO BE
SATURATED...AND THAT SHOULD TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS. WE DONT
ANTICIPATE ANYTHING FALLING PRIOR TO ABOUT 09Z...AND THERE SHOULD
JUST BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW.

THE 12Z NAM AND 15Z RAP WERE QUITE DRY...HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS AND
GEM CONTINUED TO SUPPORT THE SATURATION AND EVENTUAL LIGHT SNOW.
WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WAS SHEARING OUT AS IT
MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WAS ERODING
CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. MEANWHILE COLD AND
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SETTLING OVER THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR
AREA. OUR NEXT WEATHER-MAKER WAS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
LOOPS MOVING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND REACH OUR AREA
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE
THIS WAVE HAD MOVED ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLIER
TODAY...THERE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT BETTER SAMPLING FROM UPPER AIR
STATIONS. SO WOULD EXPECT MODELS TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON
EXPECTED OUTCOME.

TO THAT END...THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT IN MODEL OUTPUT OF POTENTIAL
SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATION. THERE IS DECENT CONSENSUS IN VORTICITY
TRACK ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THERE
TONIGHT. AND THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN DEVELOPING SNOW NEAR A WEAK
SURFACE LOW ALONG COLD FRONT IN EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE AXIS OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER NAM IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION...WAITING UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z MONDAY BEFORE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP
SNOW CLOSER TO 06Z.

DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO NAM SOLUTION AS
DEEP LAYER OF DRYING WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS CAN OCCUR. AND CROSS- AND TIME-SECTIONS OF MOISTURE PROFILES
FROM GFS SHOW THIS AS WELL...WHICH RUN COUNTER TO ITS QPF PROGS.
WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND FOR THIS FORECAST...HOLDING OFF ON MOST OF
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK OUT ACROSS OUR WEST NEAR 06Z AS AREA OF
700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS INVADES THERE...THEN SPREAD SNOW FROM WEST-
NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS INTENSIFIES AS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AND CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE BETTER SATURATION
UNDER BEST AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
WILL LIKELY SEE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
WITH A HALF OF AN INCH OF SNOW COMMON. THEN A MORE NARROW BAND OF 1
TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED UNDER BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG A
LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA METRO AREAS...INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR SHENANDOAH AND CLARINDA. GARCIA CALCULATIONS
USING 290K SURFACE AND A 4 TO 6 HOUR POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT CONCUR
WITH THE ABOVE AMOUNTS.

SNOW WILL BE EXITING WESTERN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE
RACES EAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL
FOLLOW...HELPING TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S. COLD
ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE TEENS. AND EXPECTED SNOW
COVER MEANS EVEN COLDER LOWS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TUESDAY...SO TEMPERATURES THEN WILL
STILL BE RATHER CHILLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD...WITH A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...LOWERING
SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
TO THE REGION. HAVE HIGHS WEDNESDAY BACK INTO THE 50S. LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS MARKEDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRAWING HIGHER THETA-E AIR
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THEN...SO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HOWEVER BULK OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME
THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH. SHOWERS
AND MAYBE THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY.
THEN COOLING BEHIND THESE FEATURES WILL BE ENOUGH TO CHANGE
LINGERING RAIN TO SNOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS ECMWF IS
SUGGESTING A SLOWER SYSTEM WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. A GENERAL
WESTERLY PACIFIC MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL TO END THE
FORECAST...SO A BRIEF COOLDOWN BEHIND FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY MILDER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.
THIS MINOR SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN OVERCAST SKIES WITH CIGS AROUND
050 LATE TONIGHT...THEN LOWERING INTO THE 010-020 RANGE AROUND
SUNRISE...THEN LIFTING TO VFR AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE...BUT VSBYS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THAT TIME. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR LESS ARE PREDICTED. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
MORNING SHOULD END BY MID MORNING AT KOFK AND KLNK AND BY NOON AT
KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NIETFELD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...NIETFELD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1154 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS ON THIS LOOK GOOD. ABOUT
AN INCH OF SNOW SEEMS THE MOST FROM THIS BRUSHING IN SNOW.
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS
ARE A BIT SLOW IN THICKENING...SO WILL TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

BOWMAN RADAR STILL NOT SHOWING RETURNS SO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN A
LATE START IN THE PRECIP JUST BEFORE NOON SOUTHWEST. ADJUSTED
CLOUDS A BIT BUT OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH
LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD
OF THE IMPULSE WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF MONTANA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST 10Z RUC AND 09Z HRRR BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 16Z. MADE SOME MINOR SKY
COVER ADJUSTMENTS AND SLOWED THE UPWARD RISE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTHWEST/FAR SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY/THIS EVENING.

CURRENTLY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WYOMING/MONTANA ROCKIES AHEAD OF AN EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. CLEAR SKIES AT THE
MOMENT ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN CHILLY
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO LOWER TEENS. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE 9-12Z ACROSS THE WEST AS BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS MONTANA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

S/WV IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH SOUTHWEST/FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODEL SPREAD IS RATHER LARGE WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z/06Z NAM
(FARTHER NORTH WITH QPF) WITH THE LATEST 00Z GFS/EC/GEM (FARTHER
SOUTH). THE 00Z GFS/GEM BOTH SEEM A REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE EC AND NAM...SO LEANED IN THERE DIRECTION. WWD PAINTS AN INCH
OF SNOW ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHWEST...AND IS WHAT OUR GRID METHODOLOGY
CALCULATED AS WELL. MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO OUR
SOUTH BY LATE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS COLD WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO
WINDY ON MONDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY AS THE COLD SURFACE HIGH TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS INDICATE
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE MAIN SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO DROP FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY... THEN LIFT INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
YET ANOTHER COLD HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPING THE
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE WARM-UP COULD BE IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COOL DOWN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CIGS TO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KDIK BUT
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT KDIK SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 600 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED NORTHWEST FLOW FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SHORTWAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THAT ARE
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ONE
OVER MONTANA...ANOTHER IN CENTRAL ALBERTA...A SHEARED OUT ONE
ALONG THE NUNAVUT/ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...AND A FINAL ONE
WAY TO THE NORTH OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. OBSERVATIONS SOME
SNOW AHEAD OF MOST OF THESE SHORTWAVES EXCEPT FOR THE LAST ONE.
PLENTIFUL ARCTIC AIR ALSO EXISTS OVER NUNAVUT INTO THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO THIS
MORNING. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR EXISTS WITH THIS
HIGH...REFLECTED BY 12Z RAOBS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 0.1-0.2 INCHES OR 30-50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS A RESULT...SKIES
HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...THOUGH DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS HAS
DEVELOPED WEST OF THE MS RIVER. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPERATURES
HAVE ONLY CLIMBED INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S...DUE TO
UNSEASONABLY COLD 925MB TEMPS OF -14 TO - 17C PER 12Z RAOB DATA.

DESPITE THAT WE ARE NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EXPECTED MONDAY
SNOW...THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY
RELATES TO THE MONTANA AND CENTRAL ALBERTA SHORTWAVES. THE 23.12Z
NAM FOLLOWS SUIT WITH MOST OF ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...ALSO SIMILAR TO
THE 23.12Z CANADIAN AND 23.19Z RAP...NEARLY PHASING THE TWO
SHORTWAVES AND BRINGING THEM THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A WARM
ADVECTION WING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THEM...AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA WOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TRACK
WITH 1-3 INCHES COMMON PER NAM COBB OUTPUT. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF
THIS IS THE 23.12Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH ARE MUCH DRIER SCENARIOS...
ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AS IT KEEPS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UNPHASED. SOME
OF THE DRIER LOOK IS ALSO A REFLECTION OF THE SHORTWAVES RUNNING
INTO THE CURRENT DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. GIVEN THE SPREAD OF SCENARIOS
AND EACH ONE EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE...FELT A COMPROMISE IS WARRANTED...
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN ABOUT 1-2
INCHES MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH EAST.

AFTER THE MONTANA/CENTRAL ALBERTA SHORTWAVES PASS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF
NUNAVUT/ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. A SURGE OF WARMER 925MB AIR OF -4 TO
-7C AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS WHAT MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF SUN SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S. LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATE SITUATION...RESULTING IN A BAND OF SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SCENARIO IS WELL AGREED UPON BY MODELS. COULD SEE A QUICK 1/2 TO 1
INCH FROM THIS SNOW.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

AFTER ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS GET MORE IN
AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NUNAVUT/ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING. THIS
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONTINUED STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD
OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH OF
THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 08Z TUE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE A
SURGE OF COLDER 925MB AIR COMES IN WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO
-12C. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AS WELL. EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO
PLUNGES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS FALL TO -12 TO
-15C AT A MINIMUM BY 15Z TUE...WITH THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM EVEN
SUGGESTING -15 TO -18C. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND ACCOMPANIES THIS
ARCTIC AIR SHOT...SO NEEDLESS TO SAY...TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER. THE
ONLY POSITIVE IS THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN INTERMIXED
WITH DAYTIME STRATOCUMULUS. HAVING A COLD TUESDAY...RECENT LIGHT
SNOW AND AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS AT
NIGHT SPELLS POTENTIAL FOR REALLY CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER WISCONSIN. A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS SEEM
LIKELY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB WEST OF THE
RIVER LATE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP THERE.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS SET TO TAKE HOLD FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS A
SERIES OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS LONG WAVE TROUGHS COME OFF THE PACIFIC AND
MARCH THEIR WAY ACROSS THE U.S..

THE FIRST LONG WAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY
CAUSES UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED BY MODELS BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU WITH 925-850MB TEMPS CLIMBING AROUND 8C AREA
WIDE. THIS WARMER AIR COMES IN ON A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WITH
THE ECMWF AND NAM DEPICTING 925MB WINDS REACHING 40 KT OVER THE
FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS BY 00Z. GOOD MIXING ON SOUNDINGS TOO
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL NEED FOR ADVISORY DUE TO GUSTS. THERE HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTIONS TOO FROM THE GFS/SREF OF ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SNOW
NORTH OF I-90 IN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THAT LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. THE ECMWF/NAM REMAIN DRY...THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IN
SOME LOW CHANCES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS BREEZY WITH NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WHICH WITH
A WARM LAYER PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE TYPE...A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. THE WEATHER THEN GETS MUCH MORE INTERESTING
FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING FROM THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL PLENTY OF MODEL SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS REMAINING MOST PROGRESSIVE AND THE ECMWF
SLOWEST. EITHER SOLUTION BRINGS UP PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE...AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF 0.5-1 INCH OF LIQUID QPF STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. MUCH OF THE QPF LOOKS TO COME ON THE DEFORMATION SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...WHICH APPEARS TO BE SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE AND RAIN
ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION BEING STRONGER COULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. PLENTY OF
WIND TOO IN THE ECMWF SCENARIO TO ADD TO THE SNOW HAZARD. THE RAIN
TOO COULD LEAD TO RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

AFTER THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY SYSTEM PASSES...UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.. THE WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS DRY
WITH A WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE WARMING WILL REALLY
BE NOTICED ON SUNDAY AS 850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FROM THE 23.12Z
ECMWF/GFS REACH +2... SOMETHING NOT SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE WINTER OR
SPRING THUS FAR. WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND...HIGHS IN THE 50S
WITH A FEW 60S COULD OCCUR. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

SNOW MOVES IN FOR MONDAY...BUT WILL COME IN TWO WAVES. FIRST...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS IA LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF
THIS SYSTEM/S SNOW WILL STAY CONFINED TO IOWA...BUT COULD SPREAD FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT KRST FOR A FEW HOURS. CIGS/VSBYS COULD DIP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH THE -SN.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN MOVES IN FOR THE MID AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...SHIFTING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. HEFTY LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL PROVIDE SOME NEAR SFC INSTABILITY AND MODELED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
AMPLE SATURATION FOR CLOUD/PCPN PRODUCTION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
BE MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A HALF HOUR OF 1-2SM
-SN...FOLLOWED BY P6SM FOR A PERIOD...ETC ETC. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
WILL LIKELY COVER WITH MVFR -SHSN CONDITIONS FOR NOW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

ISSUE 1...TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE. THE RIVER HAS BEEN CLIMBING
AT DODGE SINCE ABOUT 00Z ON THE 21ST...DESPITE A FEW COLD DAYS
NOW WHICH HAS CAUSED GAUGES UPSTREAM TO FALL. THERE IS ICE ON THE
RIVER...THUS THE THINKING IS THERE MIGHT BE AN ICE JAM DOWNSTREAM
OF DODGE. HAVE ISSUED A RIVER FLOOD WARNING AT DODGE WHEN IT
REACHED 8.9 FT...HOWEVER...NOW THE RIVER JUST STARTED TO FALL
SLIGHTLY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS POSSIBLE ICE JAM IS
AFFECTING RIVER FLOW...WILL BE KEEPING THE WARNING GOING.

ISSUE 2...THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING BETWEEN 1/2 - 1 INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...HEAVIEST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE RAIN ASPECT TO THIS PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY SNOW FREE HAS PLENTY OF FROST IN THE GROUND TO
TURN MUCH OF THE RAIN TO RUNOFF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WORTH
MONITORING.

ISSUE 3...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR SUNDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S...WE WILL REALLY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE TREMPEALEAU AND
BLACK GIVEN DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE HEADWATER AREA. ANY SNOW FROM
THURSDAY/FRIDAY COULD ALSO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO RAPID
MELTING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....AJ




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 339 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED NORTHWEST FLOW FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SHORTWAVES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THAT ARE
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ONE
OVER MONTANA...ANOTHER IN CENTRAL ALBERTA...A SHEARED OUT ONE
ALONG THE NUNAVUT/ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...AND A FINAL ONE
WAY TO THE NORTH OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. OBSERVATIONS SOME
SNOW AHEAD OF MOST OF THESE SHORTWAVES EXCEPT FOR THE LAST ONE.
PLENTIFUL ARCTIC AIR ALSO EXISTS OVER NUNAVUT INTO THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO THIS
MORNING. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR EXISTS WITH THIS
HIGH...REFLECTED BY 12Z RAOBS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 0.1-0.2 INCHES OR 30-50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AS A RESULT...SKIES
HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...THOUGH DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS HAS
DEVELOPED WEST OF THE MS RIVER. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPERATURES
HAVE ONLY CLIMBED INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S...DUE TO
UNSEASONABLY COLD 925MB TEMPS OF -14 TO - 17C PER 12Z RAOB DATA.

DESPITE THAT WE ARE NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EXPECTED MONDAY
SNOW...THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY
RELATES TO THE MONTANA AND CENTRAL ALBERTA SHORTWAVES. THE 23.12Z
NAM FOLLOWS SUIT WITH MOST OF ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...ALSO SIMILAR TO
THE 23.12Z CANADIAN AND 23.19Z RAP...NEARLY PHASING THE TWO
SHORTWAVES AND BRINGING THEM THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A WARM
ADVECTION WING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THEM...AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA WOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TRACK
WITH 1-3 INCHES COMMON PER NAM COBB OUTPUT. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF
THIS IS THE 23.12Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH ARE MUCH DRIER SCENARIOS...
ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AS IT KEEPS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UNPHASED. SOME
OF THE DRIER LOOK IS ALSO A REFLECTION OF THE SHORTWAVES RUNNING
INTO THE CURRENT DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. GIVEN THE SPREAD OF SCENARIOS
AND EACH ONE EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE...FELT A COMPROMISE IS WARRANTED...
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS RESULTS IN ABOUT 1-2
INCHES MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH EAST.

AFTER THE MONTANA/CENTRAL ALBERTA SHORTWAVES PASS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF
NUNAVUT/ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. A SURGE OF WARMER 925MB AIR OF -4 TO
-7C AHEAD OF THE FRONT PLUS WHAT MIGHT BE A PERIOD OF SUN SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S. LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATE SITUATION...RESULTING IN A BAND OF SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SCENARIO IS WELL AGREED UPON BY MODELS. COULD SEE A QUICK 1/2 TO 1
INCH FROM THIS SNOW.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

AFTER ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS GET MORE IN
AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NUNAVUT/ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING. THIS
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH CONTINUED STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD
OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH OF
THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 08Z TUE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE A
SURGE OF COLDER 925MB AIR COMES IN WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO
-12C. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AS WELL. EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO
PLUNGES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB TEMPS FALL TO -12 TO
-15C AT A MINIMUM BY 15Z TUE...WITH THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM EVEN
SUGGESTING -15 TO -18C. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND ACCOMPANIES THIS
ARCTIC AIR SHOT...SO NEEDLESS TO SAY...TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
CHILLY DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER. THE
ONLY POSITIVE IS THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN INTERMIXED
WITH DAYTIME STRATOCUMULUS. HAVING A COLD TUESDAY...RECENT LIGHT
SNOW AND AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS AT
NIGHT SPELLS POTENTIAL FOR REALLY CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER WISCONSIN. A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS SEEM
LIKELY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB WEST OF THE
RIVER LATE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP THERE.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS SET TO TAKE HOLD FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS A
SERIES OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS LONG WAVE TROUGHS COME OFF THE PACIFIC AND
MARCH THEIR WAY ACROSS THE U.S..

THE FIRST LONG WAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY
CAUSES UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED BY MODELS BETWEEN
12Z WED AND 00Z THU WITH 925-850MB TEMPS CLIMBING AROUND 8C AREA
WIDE. THIS WARMER AIR COMES IN ON A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WITH
THE ECMWF AND NAM DEPICTING 925MB WINDS REACHING 40 KT OVER THE
FAVORED WIND PRONE AREAS BY 00Z. GOOD MIXING ON SOUNDINGS TOO
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL NEED FOR ADVISORY DUE TO GUSTS. THERE HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTIONS TOO FROM THE GFS/SREF OF ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SNOW
NORTH OF I-90 IN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THAT LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. THE ECMWF/NAM REMAIN DRY...THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IN
SOME LOW CHANCES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS BREEZY WITH NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WHICH WITH
A WARM LAYER PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE TYPE...A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. THE WEATHER THEN GETS MUCH MORE INTERESTING
FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING FROM THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL PLENTY OF MODEL SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS REMAINING MOST PROGRESSIVE AND THE ECMWF
SLOWEST. EITHER SOLUTION BRINGS UP PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE...AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF 0.5-1 INCH OF LIQUID QPF STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. MUCH OF THE QPF LOOKS TO COME ON THE DEFORMATION SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...WHICH APPEARS TO BE SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE AND RAIN
ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION BEING STRONGER COULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST ADVISORY IF NOT WARNING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. PLENTY OF
WIND TOO IN THE ECMWF SCENARIO TO ADD TO THE SNOW HAZARD. THE RAIN
TOO COULD LEAD TO RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

AFTER THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY SYSTEM PASSES...UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.. THE WEEKEND FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS DRY
WITH A WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE WARMING WILL REALLY
BE NOTICED ON SUNDAY AS 850MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FROM THE 23.12Z
ECMWF/GFS REACH +2... SOMETHING NOT SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE WINTER OR
SPRING THUS FAR. WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND...HIGHS IN THE 50S
WITH A FEW 60S COULD OCCUR. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

A COUPLE OF AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE NEAR
TERM...STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES 2O00 TO 3000 FT HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OVER KRST/KLSE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS NOT WELL REPRESENTED
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT EXPECTING THIS CLOUD DECK TO
ER0DE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TOWARD 00Z. NEXT CONCERN IS
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL AND CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SNOW TO LIKELY BEGIN IN THE 09-12Z PERIOD AT
KRST. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...AND THIS
WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY/CEILING RESTRICTIONS AT FIRST AND LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT. TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND THROUGHOUT THE COURSE
OF THE MORNING...SATURATION AND LIFT INCREASE ENOUGH FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AT KRST THOUGH THE HIGHER IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE TO THE
SOUTH. AT KLSE...DRY AIR AND LACK OF STRONG SATURATION/LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT COULD
NOT RULE OUT MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BY 18Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014

ISSUE 1...TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE. THE RIVER HAS BEEN CLIMBING
AT DODGE SINCE ABOUT 00Z ON THE 21ST...DESPITE A FEW COLD DAYS
NOW WHICH HAS CAUSED GAUGES UPSTREAM TO FALL. THERE IS ICE ON THE
RIVER...THUS THE THINKING IS THERE MIGHT BE AN ICE JAM DOWNSTREAM
OF DODGE. HAVE ISSUED A RIVER FLOOD WARNING AT DODGE WHEN IT
REACHED 8.9 FT...HOWEVER...NOW THE RIVER JUST STARTED TO FALL
SLIGHTLY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS POSSIBLE ICE JAM IS
AFFECTING RIVER FLOW...WILL BE KEEPING THE WARNING GOING.

ISSUE 2...THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING BETWEEN 1/2 - 1 INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...HEAVIEST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE RAIN ASPECT TO THIS PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY SNOW FREE HAS PLENTY OF FROST IN THE GROUND TO
TURN MUCH OF THE RAIN TO RUNOFF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WORTH
MONITORING.

ISSUE 3...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH FOR SUNDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S...WE WILL REALLY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE TREMPEALEAU AND
BLACK GIVEN DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE HEADWATER AREA. ANY SNOW FROM
THURSDAY/FRIDAY COULD ALSO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO RAPID
MELTING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....ZT
HYDROLOGY...AJ