Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/22/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
950 PM MDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...NUMBER OF CHANGES TO FIRST AND SECOND PERIODS OF
FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE COMING IN THIS EVENING. BIG CHANGE WAS TO BACK
OFF CONSIDERABLY ON PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING...AND EVEN LOWERED
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. REALLY ONLY PRECIP/SNOW THAT FELL THIS
EVENING WAS AROUND PARK COUNTY SOUTHWEST OF DENVER. APPEARS THIS
AREA OF SNOW HAS SHRANK IN COVERAGE AS IT SHIFTED EAST OVER
DOUGLAS COUNTY. DON/T BELIEVE MUCH IS FALLING FROM RADAR ECHOS
SHOWING UP DOWN THERE AT THAT WAY. OTHERWISE RADAR ECHOS SPREADING
OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP ALOFT. EVEN
THOUGH EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE AT THE SFC. TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE 18-23DEG F
RANGE AT THIS HOUR...EVEN AFTER A DAY OF UPSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER
LATER TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW ON
THE PLAINS WHICH HELPS TO ADVECT HIGHER THETA-E AIR UP INTO THE
AREA. SUCH A FLOW WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR UP AROUND FORT COLLINS AND
CHEYENNE RIDGE. THIS IS WHERE WE/LL LIKELY SEE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION BEFORE MORNING. GFS SNOW AMTS LOOK
OVERDONE...PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE. IT INDICATED SNOW ACCUM THIS
EVENING WHERE THERE WASN/T ANY. SO WILL USE THIS MODEL WITH
CAUTION. ON SATURDAY...LOWERED MORNING POPS SOME AND ADJUSTED SKY
COVERAGE. ALSO BACKED OFF ON PRE-NOON SNOW AMTS...AND LEFT THE
BULK OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION TOMORROW FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH A STRONGER MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT...THEN CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS (3000-5000 FT AGL) AS
SFC WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT. THIS WIND SHIFT
SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND THEREFORE THE
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL LATE TONIGHT. KBJC COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW BY MORNING...WITH AROUND AN INCH AT KAPA...AND CLOSE TO AN
INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT KDEN (DIA). MOST OF THIS SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE OF NON-PAVED SURFACES DUE TO WARM SFC TEMPERATURES.
VFR/MFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE DENVER AREA. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM MDT FRI MAR 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...STILL A RATHER COMPLICATED SITUATION FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY IN TERMS OF SNOW COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. INITIALLY...AIRMASS
IS STILL QUITE DRY WITH MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO DUE TO WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
ARIZONA. AT THE LOW LEVELS...NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS. AS THIS EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...THE LOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP. VERY LITTLE
MODEL CONSENSUS AS THE HRRR/GFS TRIES TO RAMP UP PRECIP AROUND 00Z
AND EARLY EVENING...WHILE RAP IS LESS BULLISH ON SPREADING PRECIP
ON THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE INITIAL DRYNESS...SEEMS THE MODELS ARE A
LITTLE EARLY IN DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT SO
THAT WILL HELP A BIT IN THE PRECIP PROCESS. MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER IN THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS AND
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SHIFT MUCH OF THE PRECIP
FURTHER NORTH OF DENVER...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN LARIMER AND
WELD COUNTIES.
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS ON THE DRY SIDE ALONG WITH DENVER CYCLONE
IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FROM
NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A RAMP-UP OF SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME WEAK ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF. HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS A BIT FROM EARLIER FORECAST SO NOW LOOKS
LIKE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ON
THE PLAINS AND 3-7 INCHES OVER THE EAST SLOPES. TEMPERATURES
COLDER ON SATURDAY AS READINGS DROP INTO THE 30S BEHIND NEXT COLD
FRONT.
LONG TERM...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE SINKING
SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM ALONG CONDITIONS TO START CLEARING OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. MODELS DISAGREEING ON FLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEW GFS SHOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
DRASTICALLY DIMINISH THE SNOW...HOWEVER OTHER MODELS SHOWING A
CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WOULD SUPPORT SNOW
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA. COULD POSSIBLY SEE ANOTHER
1-3 INCHES OVER THIS AREA WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE LESS THAN AN INCH. HAVE DECREASED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD WARM UP INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE
PLAINS AND 30S AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SWEEP INTO NORTHEASTER COLORADO. MOST OF
THIS ENERGY SEEMS TO STAY EAST HOWEVER...WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE IT KICKS OUT EAST MONDAY EVENING. THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AS
AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...THEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE PACIFIC AND OVER THE WESTERN STATES TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM
THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN A CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO FRIDAY AS WE REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRENDS IS FOR A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT. BEST WINDOW OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 04-08Z BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO FAR SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL IN THIS WINDOW STILL LOW. BEST CHANCE OF
SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT FRONT BRINGS IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE MOISTURE. SNOW ACCUMULATION AT LOCAL
TERMINALS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH TONIGHT AND 1-3 INCHES ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. RUNWAYS WILL MAINLY BE WET
BUT SOME SLUSH MAY ACCUMULATE IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM UPDATED...BAKER
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION UPDATED...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER UNAMPLIFIED AND
GENERALLY BENIGN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. MAIN FEATURE
OF NOTE IS AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH
PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH HAS SOME INFLUENCE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...HOWEVER
THE FLOW BECOMES CLOSE TO ZONAL IN NATURE BY THE TIME YOU REACH THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A
DRY PROFILE THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE TROP. ONLY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH 900MB...WITH A SHARP
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL WHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ACROSS
GA/CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT WILL NEVER MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION AS IT
WASHOUT OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AND IS
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
SCT-BKN CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK AS EAST COAST AND WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZES CLEAR THE SKIES IN THEIR WAKE NEAR THE COAST...AND THE
INTERIOR BEGINS TO MIX OUT ABOVE THE LAYER OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
WOULD EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A QUIET AND DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S NORTH...AND MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER
60S SOUTH. SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT...
HOWEVER THE SREF IS NOW LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
THINK IT WILL NEITHER BE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD AS WE SAW THIS PAST
MORNING.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
A VERY PLEASANT FRIDAY TO END OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A DRY COLUMN AND NO SYNOPTIC FORCING TO SPEAK OF
SHOULD KEEP OUR FORECAST RAIN FREE. ONLY CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST
FOR FIRE WEATHER AND AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF ANY SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. SEA-BREEZE SHOULD NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED ON FRIDAY DUE TO A STEADY 10-14 KNOTS OF SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 950-925MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP
ANY SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT FEEBLE AND PINNED CLOSE TO THE
COAST...DESPITE THE EFFICIENT TERRESTRIAL HEATING. WE BEGIN TO SEE
THE BEGINNINGS OF A PROCESS TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN BACK UP DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT RATHER WARM
REGION-WIDE.
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED SYNOPTIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER GENERALLY QUIET FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. THE BETTER
COLUMN MOISTURE AND SOME SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE INLAND LATE IN THE
DAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF IN NATURE WITH THE BEST
CHANCES APPEARING TO BE OVER POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...A BIT MORE HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR...AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AT MANY SPOTS. A SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
KEEP THE BEACHES IN THE 70S WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RELATIVELY
COOLER SHELF WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW IS ALOFT TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...AS SEEN IN BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...WITH
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
DROPPING OFF ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL COOL DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 07Z THEN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WITH LOCAL IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR AT LAL AND PGD TERMINALS BY 09Z.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AS A DRY FRONT
APPROACHES THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE GETS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LIMITS.
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF AREAL RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK
TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 61 80 66 78 / 10 0 0 20
FMY 64 84 66 85 / 0 10 0 20
GIF 63 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 30
SRQ 60 79 64 75 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 50 82 60 82 / 0 0 10 20
SPG 64 80 67 78 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
AVIATION...JILLSON
LONG TERM...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1040 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER UNAMPLIFIED AND
GENERALLY BENIGN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. MAIN FEATURE
OF NOTE IS AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH
PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH HAS SOME INFLUENCE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...HOWEVER
THE FLOW BECOMES CLOSE TO ZONAL IN NATURE BY THE TIME YOU REACH THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A
DRY PROFILE THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE TROP. ONLY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH 900MB...WITH A SHARP
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ABOVE THIS LEVEL. THE TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER A
SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSIVE ATMOSPHERE RESULTED IN AREAS OF FOG OVER
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THIS
FOG HAS BURNED OFF...ALTHOUGH A THICKER PATCH OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
REMAINS DOWN DOWN FT. MYERS AND MAY NOT COMPLETELY BURN OFF UNTIL
AROUND MIDDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL WHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ACROSS
GA/CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT WILL NEVER MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION AS IT
WASHOUT OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING...AND IS FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCT-BKN
AFTERNOON CU FIELD. LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING PROFILE...ONCE WE MIX UP
TO AROUND 4000FT OR SO...MUCH OF THE CU FIELD SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WE MIX UP INTO THE MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK QUITE SEASONABLE FOR MID/LATE MARCH WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S NORTH OF I-4...AND GENERALLY LOWER 80S FURTHER
SOUTH. WITH WINDS VEERING LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WOULD EXPECT MORE MODERATED TEMPS AT THE BEACHES.
A QUIET AND DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S NORTH...AND MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER
60S SOUTH. LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS AND WILL LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH THE
12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE.
VERY PLEASANT FRIDAY TO END OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH 15-16Z AROUND
PGD...FMY AND RSW. OTHERWISE BECOMING MVFR/VFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN AS A
COLD FRONT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL WASH
OUT OVER NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND STALL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 60 80 62 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 83 64 85 63 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 80 60 82 60 / 0 10 0 10
SRQ 76 61 81 61 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 77 48 82 55 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 75 64 80 65 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
907 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK OUT OF THE N/NE
BECOMING E/NE UP TO 10 MPH INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS
INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES WESTWARD BUT PW VALUES LOOK TO LOW FOR
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. SKIES WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COAST
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE LONG PERIOD
NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL GENERATE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. HAVE
ISSUED A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTLINE FOR THESE ENHANCED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...LATEST OBS FROM BUOY 41009 SHOWING HIGHER NORTHERLY WIND
SPEEDS THAN FORECAST...UP TO 15-17 KTS THIS MORNING. THIS IS
LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH/LOW OFFSHORE WHICH
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THIS FEATURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST
PLANNING ON CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR
SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS UP TO 6 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE AND OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
355 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 10 AM...
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY & TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS OVERSPREADING NE FL WITH TRENDS
DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR MODEL. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL
OF NE FL THROUGH 10 AM. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE TRACKING NE FROM
THE FL PANHANDLE AND MAY PRECLUDED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVER SE GA...SO FOR NOW ADVERTISED AREAS OF DENSE FOG. WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL ADVISORY. MIN TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO FALL INTO
THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST UNDER
CALM WINDS WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE GULF OVER NORTH FLORIDA. DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID- MORNING WITH
SOME FOG LINGERING OFFSHORE OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
NOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FORM THE WNW AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WITH
MOISTURE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS THE BOUNDARY IS SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THUS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL AND LEANED ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE AN AFTN SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. DRY AND COOLER
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP MIN TEMPS BELOW CLIMO VALUES INLAND WITH LOWER
40S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S IN A FEW NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES. FARTHER
SOUTH FROM JAX TO GNV SOUTHWARD...MINS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW 50S WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
CONTINUING THE LOW RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER SHORT WAVE AFFECTS THE AREA
WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SHOWN BY MODELS OFF OUR ATLANTIC COAST.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC... DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DENSE FOG WILL RESULT IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 13Z-14Z THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF.
&&
.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE WITH EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WHERE COMBINED SEAS OF 6 FT ARE LIKELY DUE TO LINGERING
EAST SWELLS. SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 6 FT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
VEER THROUGH SAT NIGHT TO SSW WITH SPEEDS 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4
FT. WINDS INCREASE LATE SUN TO NEAR SCEC LEVELS OFFSHORE AS THE
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASED ONSHORE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
DOWN THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK TODAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD EAST SWELLS OF
2-3 FT WITH PERIODS OF 13 SECONDS. MODERATE RISK LIKELY TOMORROW
DUE OT THE LINGERING SWELLS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...SEVERAL AREA RIVER GAGES CONTINUED TO REPORT LEVELS
AT ACTION TO MINOR FLOODING STAGE. THE ONLY SITE TO CREST JUST
BELOW MODERATE FLOODING WAS THE ST MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY...WHICH
WAS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 75 42 76 52 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 68 51 71 58 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 75 49 77 54 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 69 53 74 59 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 76 47 79 54 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 77 51 81 56 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-
BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
NASSAU-ST JOHNS.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
COASTAL GLYNN.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZIBURA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
953 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...THE SPRING-LIKE DAY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY EVEN SEE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-39. THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL SEE A DRY WEEKEND...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING BOTH NW INDIANA AND FAR NE ILLINOIS TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY...
A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER NW MINNESOTA WITH A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM
FRONT HAS ADVANCED FROM MOLINE IL THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND HAVE
NOTICED WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO COME AROUND TO SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. STILL EXPECTING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S DOWNTOWN AND
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY ONCE THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH. FAR NE
IL...LAKE COUNTY...WILL HOLD ON TO SE WINDS THE LONGEST AND WILL
MOST LIKELY MISS OUT ON 50S TODAY. THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN IS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY BECAUSE
THE LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT AND COLD
AIR BEGINS TO FLOOD INTO THE REGION.
RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ALONG THE WARM FRONT RIGHT
NOW NORTH OF BURLINGTON IOWA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THOSE SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST...BUT NOT BUYING INTO THAT THEORY AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN LARGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD
HAVE AMPLE FORCING FROM THE FRONT...LOW...AND IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. AS SUCH HAVE A BAND OF LOW END CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP OUT OF ANY GIVEN
SHOWER...EXCEPT FOR OVER NW INDIANA. FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AND MAY
SEE UPWARDS OF 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN. STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT...BUT MORE THAN THE REST OF THE CWA.
TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL IL AND TO AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS NW INDIANA TONIGHT. TEMPS REBOUND A LITTLE SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S DOWN SOUTH. EXPECTING THE
MORNING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING AS FLOW
TURNS OFF OF THE LAKE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE
PLAINS...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW SITUATION. RIGHT
NOW NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY THE SET UP AS DELTA TS ARE MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT THE MODELED WIND FIELDS SHOW GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER THE
LAKE. THE LOCAL ARW IS ALREADY INDICATING A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
THE POPS A BIT MORE BROAD AT THIS POINT WITH MAX POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE. HAVE THE BAND STARTING OVER NW INDIANA...SHIFTING EAST TO
NEAR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN IL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN
SHIFTING BACK ACROSS NW INDIANA AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN IF THE SNOW WILL HAPPEN AND
WHERE IT WILL FALL...KEPT PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT. HAVE LESS THAN HALF
INCH JUST ALONG THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA FOR NOW.
FOR TEMPS...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID
20S. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND ROTATES EAST
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE CWA TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS BRIEF RIDGING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND/OR
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
BE TALKING ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK
DECENT. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS SOUNDINGS...THE ONLY ISSUE I
SEE IS A SHRINKING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE EVENT GOES ON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK. THIS OF COURSE WILL PLAY A
ROLL IN PRECIP TYPES...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE PRECIP
OVER THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
RISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRECIP TYPES LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOWS PATH AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE TEMPS. FOR NOW USED THE
FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS TO CREATE THE WEATHER GRIDS.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 AND POSSIBLY 30 KT THROUGH LATE
EVENING.
* SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS AROUND 020 EXPECTED FROM LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
* NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY BECOMING NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE SET IN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN TO
TIGHTEN ALLOWING GUSTS TO DEVELOP. A FEW UPSTREAM SITES HAVE
GUSTED TO NEAR 30 KT BUT MOST AREAS ARE AROUND 25 KT. CANNOT RULE
OUT A SHORT PERIOD OF 30 KT GUSTS BUT AROUND 25 KT LOOKS TO BE
MOST PREVALENT. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS IN THE 018-025 RANGE
CONTINUE TO MARCH TOWARD THE TERMINALS AND WILL CARRY MVFR FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE. STILL NOT TOO
CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
FROM 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS AT 2340Z WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST THEN QUICKLY
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING BEHIND IT. UPSTREAM GUSTS CONTINUE TO PUSH
30 KT AND THE LOCAL TERMINALS MAY SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD WITH
THESE GUSTS THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN BREEZY...WITH SOME RENEWED GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION PROMOTING LAKE
INFLUENCES WHICH SHOULD TURN WINDS NORTHEASTERLY AT GYY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING WINDS TO NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
ORD/MDW. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 IS UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
AND NORTHEAST IA AND MOVING EAST. SOME OF THIS MAY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND MAY SCATTER AS NIGHT FALLS. WILL BRING BKN MVFR CIGS
INTO RFD BUT KEEP THE REMAINING TERMINALS SCATTERED BUT LOWER
BASES TO AROUND 020. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
BUT MAY SEE SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY BUT AM
NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL
STRATO CU LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS WOULD LIKELY SCATTER WITH TIME INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES LOOK TO BRING MVFR/LOW VFR CLOUDS
NEAR THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY TO GYY AND IF WINDS DO TURN NORTHERLY
ENOUGH ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE...THEN ORD/MDW MAY SEE THESE
CLOUDS AS WELL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS ARRIVING LATE EVENING. LOW-
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DURATION. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS
SATURDAY.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN AND SUB VFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE -RA AND SUB VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
348 PM CDT
VARYING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES
PUSH OVER THE LAKE. SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST...EXPECT
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND WINDS OF
20-25 KT IN THE NEARSHORE TONIGHT. WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE MARKED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
655 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...THE SPRING-LIKE DAY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY EVEN SEE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-39. THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL SEE A DRY WEEKEND...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING BOTH NW INDIANA AND FAR NE ILLINOIS TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY...
A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER NW MINNESOTA WITH A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM
FRONT HAS ADVANCED FROM MOLINE IL THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND HAVE
NOTICED WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO COME AROUND TO SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. STILL EXPECTING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S DOWNTOWN AND
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY ONCE THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH. FAR NE
IL...LAKE COUNTY...WILL HOLD ON TO SE WINDS THE LONGEST AND WILL
MOST LIKELY MISS OUT ON 50S TODAY. THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN IS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY BECAUSE
THE LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT AND COLD
AIR BEGINS TO FLOOD INTO THE REGION.
RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ALONG THE WARM FRONT RIGHT
NOW NORTH OF BURLINGTON IOWA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THOSE SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST...BUT NOT BUYING INTO THAT THEORY AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN LARGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD
HAVE AMPLE FORCING FROM THE FRONT...LOW...AND IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. AS SUCH HAVE A BAND OF LOW END CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP OUT OF ANY GIVEN
SHOWER...EXCEPT FOR OVER NW INDIANA. FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AND MAY
SEE UPWARDS OF 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN. STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT...BUT MORE THAN THE REST OF THE CWA.
TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL IL AND TO AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS NW INDIANA TONIGHT. TEMPS REBOUND A LITTLE SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S DOWN SOUTH. EXPECTING THE
MORNING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING AS FLOW
TURNS OFF OF THE LAKE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE
PLAINS...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW SITUATION. RIGHT
NOW NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY THE SET UP AS DELTA TS ARE MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT THE MODELED WIND FIELDS SHOW GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER THE
LAKE. THE LOCAL ARW IS ALREADY INDICATING A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
THE POPS A BIT MORE BROAD AT THIS POINT WITH MAX POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE. HAVE THE BAND STARTING OVER NW INDIANA...SHIFTING EAST TO
NEAR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN IL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN
SHIFTING BACK ACROSS NW INDIANA AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN IF THE SNOW WILL HAPPEN AND
WHERE IT WILL FALL...KEPT PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT. HAVE LESS THAN HALF
INCH JUST ALONG THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA FOR NOW.
FOR TEMPS...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID
20S. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND ROTATES EAST
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE CWA TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS BRIEF RIDGING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND/OR
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
BE TALKING ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK
DECENT. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS SOUNDINGS...THE ONLY ISSUE I
SEE IS A SHRINKING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE EVENT GOES ON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK. THIS OF COURSE WILL PLAY A
ROLL IN PRECIP TYPES...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE PRECIP
OVER THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
RISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRECIP TYPES LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOWS PATH AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE TEMPS. FOR NOW USED THE
FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS TO CREATE THE WEATHER GRIDS.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST BY AROUND 02Z.
GUSTS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT AROUND/AFTER 02Z FOR A FEW
HOURS.
* SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS AROUND 020 POSSIBLE MID EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
* SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TIL MID EVENING.
* NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY BECOMING NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS AT 2340Z WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST THEN QUICKLY
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING BEHIND IT. UPSTREAM GUSTS CONTINUE TO PUSH
30 KT AND THE LOCAL TERMINALS MAY SEE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD WITH
THESE GUSTS THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN BREEZY...WITH SOME RENEWED GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION PROMOTING LAKE
INFLUENCES WHICH SHOULD TURN WINDS NORTHEASTERLY AT GYY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING WINDS TO NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
ORD/MDW. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 020 IS UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
AND NORTHEAST IA AND MOVING EAST. SOME OF THIS MAY BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND MAY SCATTER AS NIGHT FALLS. WILL BRING BKN MVFR CIGS
INTO RFD BUT KEEP THE REMAINING TERMINALS SCATTERED BUT LOWER
BASES TO AROUND 020. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
BUT MAY SEE SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY BUT AM
NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL
STRATO CU LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS WOULD LIKELY SCATTER WITH TIME INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES LOOK TO BRING MVFR/LOW VFR CLOUDS
NEAR THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY TO GYY AND IF WINDS DO TURN NORTHERLY
ENOUGH ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE...THEN ORD/MDW MAY SEE THESE
CLOUDS AS WELL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS AROUND 30 KT THIS EVENING.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE OR JUST
REMAIN SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS SATURDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN AND SUB VFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE -RA AND SUB VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
348 PM CDT
VARYING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES
PUSH OVER THE LAKE. SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST...EXPECT
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND WINDS OF
20-25 KT IN THE NEARSHORE TONIGHT. WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE MARKED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
316 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
HAD TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER UNTIL OVERNIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS AS CLEARING AS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE STRATOCU DECK STILL JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...HAD TO KEEP THE GUSTY WINDS IN A LITTLE LONGER AS GUSTS HAVE
STAYED UP IN THE 30S PER RAP AND NAM BUFKIT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BY
THIS EVENING. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DECENT...ALBEIT
SLOW...DRYING AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FIRST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT
AND THEN WITH A COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ENOUGH TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK UP INTO THE 50S...POSSIBLY
EVEN HITTING 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY INCREASE IN THE EVENING AS A WARM FRONT
CREEPS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN AS THE FRONT
LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AND THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 40-45 KT 850 MB JET. THEREFORE...CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL RUNS LOOK TO HAVE JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...ONCE ANY
LINGERING WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS EXIT THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TIME HOURS.
THIS BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS...WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S. WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING...SLOWED DOWN THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY WITH NO POPS AGAIN UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO
BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH A DECENT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MODERATE
DYNAMICS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE LARGELY DRY AND COOL WITH TWO SEPARATE 1030 PLUS MILLIBAR
CANADIAN HIGHS DOMINATING THE AREA...SAVE FOR AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION BETWEEN THEM...WHICH MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PERIOD RELATIVELY WELL. TEMPS SEEMED A BIT
WARM TUESDAY IN LIGHT OF AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND 850 TEMPS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF -10C...SO MADE SOME CHANGES THERE. REMAINDER OF
INITIALIZATION REQUIRED ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
TAF SITES ARE SITTING RIGHT AT THE MVFR/VFR MARK AND SHOULD START
TRANSITIONING TO ALL VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FARTHER INTO THE AREA. THEY WILL THEN REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. WEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT HAD TO CARRY GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS YET.
THIS WILL MEAN SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24
KTS THROUGH THU 09Z. WINDS WILL STREGTHEN AGAIN AROUND MID
MORNING...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT END OF TAF PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE/MK
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1255 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
HAD TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER UNTIL OVERNIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS AS CLEARING AS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE STRATOCU DECK STILL JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...HAD TO KEEP THE GUSTY WINDS IN A LITTLE LONGER AS GUSTS HAVE
STAYED UP IN THE 30S PER RAP AND NAM BUFKIT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BY
THIS EVENING. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DECENT...ALBEIT
SLOW...DRYING AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FIRST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT
AND THEN WITH A COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ENOUGH TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK UP INTO THE 50S...POSSIBLY
EVEN HITTING 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY INCREASE IN THE EVENING AS A WARM FRONT
CREEPS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN AS THE FRONT
LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AND THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 40-45 KT 850 MB JET. THEREFORE...CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL RUNS LOOK TO HAVE JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...ONCE ANY
LINGERING WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS EXIT THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TIME HOURS.
THIS BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS...WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S. WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING...SLOWED DOWN THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY WITH NO POPS AGAIN UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO
BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH A DECENT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MODERATE
DYNAMICS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST A PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH LIMITED SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA IN THE FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA. FLOW OF ANY
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF REMAINS CUT OFF. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS EVEN WHEN A CUSPY AREA PASSES
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED. WILL TAKE THE ROUTE OF WAITING FOR MORE SUPPORT BEFORE
KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
TAF SITES ARE SITTING RIGHT AT THE MVFR/VFR MARK AND SHOULD START
TRANSITIONING TO ALL VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FARTHER INTO THE AREA. THEY WILL THEN REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. WEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT HAD TO CARRY GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS YET.
THIS WILL MEAN SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24
KTS THROUGH THU 09Z. WINDS WILL STREGTHEN AGAIN AROUND MID
MORNING...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT END OF TAF PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE/MK
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER TODAY FOLLOWED BY
HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE PHASE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND
COMPLICATED FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE DAY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS DID FINE HERE BUT HAVE TO GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE
TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT. THE NEWEST ECMWF WAS CATCHING THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD THE BEST. THE LATEST RUC IS
MATCHING THE ECMWF WHICH GIVES GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION.
THE GFS WAS DOING BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THAN THE
SREF AND ECMWF.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION.
COMPLICATED SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND PATTERN FOR TODAY. THIS IS MADE
POSSIBLE BY A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FOLLOWED BY A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AS A NEW OR RESTRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A LOT OF DOWNWARD MOTION TODAY WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WINDS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. PER
THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR THIS SCENARIO THAT WINDS USUALLY
END UP BEING LIGHTER. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
ECMWF WHICH IS BEING VERY WELL SUPPORTED BY THE RUC/HRRR. THIS WIND
FORECAST HAS IMPLICATIONS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST WHICH WILL
BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOING
BY WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES...MADE
ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES AND NWP HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE SURFACE/2
METER GUIDANCE. KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE WILL GET BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETS REMAIN WELL
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A WEAKER
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY DROP TO NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER AROUND UNTIL
VERY LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE IN THE FAR NORTH INCREASES
AS LIFT DOES GET CLOSER TO THERE. LEFT THE THIN SLIVER OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE IN NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH
THE NEW GUIDANCE.
DURING THE DAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO THICKEN. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL MAKE FOR COOLER MAXES. AGAIN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
GUIDANCE AS TO HOW COOL TO MAKE IT. TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER
2 METER/SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BEGINS AFFECTING THE
AREA...MAINLY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST HALF DURING THE MORNING. THAT
LIFT GETS STRONGER AS IT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE GENERAL LAYOUT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
INCREASING JET LIFT...DID INCREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOW THE QUESTION OF PHASE BEGINS. MODELS ARE COMING IN COOLER FOR
THE MAXES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THAT DOES MAKE SENSE
SINCE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND
CONTINUES/INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. SO LOWERED MAXES IN THE NORTHERN HALF INTO THE 30S.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND SOUNDING PROFILES...CONTINUED A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THROUGH THE DAY. IF TEMPERATURES COOL ANY FASTER...THEN THE PHASE
MAY STAY ALL SNOW. LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BUT AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN AFFECTED BY THIS
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT TO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. NEWER MODEL RUN LOOKS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING OUT THE LIFT. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT POPS
IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. LEFT THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ALONE FOR THE
NIGHT PERIOD SINCE THIS NEW GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT IT.
THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY PROVIDING
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE HELP FOR THE PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR ADVECTION
ORIGINATING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL SNOW.
ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY INHIBIT ACCUMULATION
INITIALLY BUT THINK IT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT FACTOR. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...HIGHEST IN EASTERN
COLORADO. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED AT AROUND 15KT AND
GUSTS TO 25KTS...ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY MORNING WITH A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
MORE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW THAT WILL BRING
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LESS THAN AN INCH.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY...BUT IT QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN
AND IS REPLACED BY FAST ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AROUND THURSDAY
AND MIGHT BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN DUE
TO WARMER TEMPERATURES...STILL NO THUNDER AS INSTABILITY STAYS
WELL TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAKING WIND SHIFTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THE TAFS. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OVER BOTH TERMINALS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. KGLD WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS WHILE KMCK
COULD SEE GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE EARLY EVENING TOWARDS SUNSET AND WILL
PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AROUND 07Z AND 08Z TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS. NORTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TOMORROW AS A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
OVER THE TERMINALS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1134 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER TODAY FOLLOWED BY
HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE PHASE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND
COMPLICATED FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE DAY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS DID FINE HERE BUT HAVE TO GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE
TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT. THE NEWEST ECMWF WAS CATCHING THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD THE BEST. THE LATEST RUC IS
MATCHING THE ECMWF WHICH GIVES GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION.
THE GFS WAS DOING BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THAN THE
SREF AND ECMWF.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION.
COMPLICATED SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND PATTERN FOR TODAY. THIS IS MADE
POSSIBLE BY A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FOLLOWED BY A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AS A NEW OR RESTRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A LOT OF DOWNWARD MOTION TODAY WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WINDS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. PER
THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR THIS SCENARIO THAT WINDS USUALLY
END UP BEING LIGHTER. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
ECMWF WHICH IS BEING VERY WELL SUPPORTED BY THE RUC/HRRR. THIS WIND
FORECAST HAS IMPLICATIONS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST WHICH WILL
BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOING
BY WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES...MADE
ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES AND NWP HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE SURFACE/2
METER GUIDANCE. KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE WILL GET BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETS REMAIN WELL
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A WEAKER
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY DROP TO NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER AROUND UNTIL
VERY LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE IN THE FAR NORTH INCREASES
AS LIFT DOES GET CLOSER TO THERE. LEFT THE THIN SLIVER OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE IN NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH
THE NEW GUIDANCE.
DURING THE DAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO THICKEN. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL MAKE FOR COOLER MAXES. AGAIN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
GUIDANCE AS TO HOW COOL TO MAKE IT. TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER
2 METER/SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BEGINS AFFECTING THE
AREA...MAINLY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST HALF DURING THE MORNING. THAT
LIFT GETS STRONGER AS IT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE GENERAL LAYOUT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
INCREASING JET LIFT...DID INCREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOW THE QUESTION OF PHASE BEGINS. MODELS ARE COMING IN COOLER FOR
THE MAXES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THAT DOES MAKE SENSE
SINCE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND
CONTINUES/INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. SO LOWERED MAXES IN THE NORTHERN HALF INTO THE 30S.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND SOUNDING PROFILES...CONTINUED A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THROUGH THE DAY. IF TEMPERATURES COOL ANY FASTER...THEN THE PHASE
MAY STAY ALL SNOW. LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BUT AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN AFFECTED BY THIS
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT TO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. NEWER MODEL RUN LOOKS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING OUT THE LIFT. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT POPS
IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. LEFT THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ALONE FOR THE
NIGHT PERIOD SINCE THIS NEW GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT IT.
THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATES. WITH SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOW PRECIP. CHANCES FOR
THE DAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE
AREA...ONLY WARMING HIGHS TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER WARMER AIR
MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH PREVENTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AM LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP. CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH AS MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
THERE WILL BE TO WORK WITH AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. IN ADDITION
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH THE TRI-STATE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYNOPTIC LIFT OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR
WEST THE WARMER AIR WILL BE PUSHED BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA
AND HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE HIGHS WILL BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...RAISING TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAKING WIND SHIFTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THE TAFS. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OVER BOTH TERMINALS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. KGLD WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS WHILE KMCK
COULD SEE GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE EARLY EVENING TOWARDS SUNSET AND WILL
PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AROUND 07Z AND 08Z TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS. NORTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TOMORROW AS A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
OVER THE TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...MAKING THE DURATION OF
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA QUESTIONABLE. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN PORTIONS...MAINLY
GRAHAM...NORTON...AND DECATUR COUNTY KANSAS AND RED WILLOW COUNTY
NEBRASKA...OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
15% OVER THAT AREA WHEN THE WINDS INITIALLY PICK UP DROPPING BELOW
15% AN HOUR OR SO AFTER THE WINDS INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...THIS
AREA LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE 3 HOUR DURATION REQUIRED TO
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...DO THINK THAT THIS AREA
WILL SEE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER BASED ON THE WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WAS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CWA...MAINLY CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTY COLORADO. JUST BEHIND
THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL BELOW 15%. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS BECOME BREEZY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE NEAR SUNSET. THEREFORE...THE 3 HOUR
DURATION BECOMES THE PROBLEM AGAIN FOR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH...THINK THAT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE THERE FOR A MENTION
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...ALW
FIRE WEATHER...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1104 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER TODAY FOLLOWED BY
HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE PHASE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND
COMPLICATED FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE DAY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS DID FINE HERE BUT HAVE TO GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE
TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT. THE NEWEST ECMWF WAS CATCHING THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD THE BEST. THE LATEST RUC IS
MATCHING THE ECMWF WHICH GIVES GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION.
THE GFS WAS DOING BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THAN THE
SREF AND ECMWF.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION.
COMPLICATED SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND PATTERN FOR TODAY. THIS IS MADE
POSSIBLE BY A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FOLLOWED BY A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AS A NEW OR RESTRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A LOT OF DOWNWARD MOTION TODAY WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WINDS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. PER
THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR THIS SCENARIO THAT WINDS USUALLY
END UP BEING LIGHTER. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
ECMWF WHICH IS BEING VERY WELL SUPPORTED BY THE RUC/HRRR. THIS WIND
FORECAST HAS IMPLICATIONS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST WHICH WILL
BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOING
BY WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES...MADE
ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES AND NWP HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE SURFACE/2
METER GUIDANCE. KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE WILL GET BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETS REMAIN WELL
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A WEAKER
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY DROP TO NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER AROUND UNTIL
VERY LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE IN THE FAR NORTH INCREASES
AS LIFT DOES GET CLOSER TO THERE. LEFT THE THIN SLIVER OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE IN NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH
THE NEW GUIDANCE.
DURING THE DAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO THICKEN. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL MAKE FOR COOLER MAXES. AGAIN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
GUIDANCE AS TO HOW COOL TO MAKE IT. TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER
2 METER/SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BEGINS AFFECTING THE
AREA...MAINLY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST HALF DURING THE MORNING. THAT
LIFT GETS STRONGER AS IT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE GENERAL LAYOUT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
INCREASING JET LIFT...DID INCREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOW THE QUESTION OF PHASE BEGINS. MODELS ARE COMING IN COOLER FOR
THE MAXES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THAT DOES MAKE SENSE
SINCE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND
CONTINUES/INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. SO LOWERED MAXES IN THE NORTHERN HALF INTO THE 30S.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND SOUNDING PROFILES...CONTINUED A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THROUGH THE DAY. IF TEMPERATURES COOL ANY FASTER...THEN THE PHASE
MAY STAY ALL SNOW. LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BUT AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN AFFECTED BY THIS
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT TO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. NEWER MODEL RUN LOOKS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING OUT THE LIFT. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT POPS
IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. LEFT THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ALONE FOR THE
NIGHT PERIOD SINCE THIS NEW GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT IT.
THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATES. WITH SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOW PRECIP. CHANCES FOR
THE DAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE
AREA...ONLY WARMING HIGHS TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER WARMER AIR
MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH PREVENTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AM LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP. CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH AS MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
THERE WILL BE TO WORK WITH AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. IN ADDITION
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH THE TRI-STATE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYNOPTIC LIFT OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR
WEST THE WARMER AIR WILL BE PUSHED BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA
AND HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE HIGHS WILL BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...RAISING TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AND SHIFTING TO DUE THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...MAKING THE DURATION OF
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA QUESTIONABLE. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN PORTIONS...MAINLY
GRAHAM...NORTON...AND DECATUR COUNTY KANSAS AND RED WILLOW COUNTY
NEBRASKA...OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
15% OVER THAT AREA WHEN THE WINDS INITIALLY PICK UP DROPPING BELOW
15% AN HOUR OR SO AFTER THE WINDS INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...THIS
AREA LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE 3 HOUR DURATION REQUIRED TO
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...DO THINK THAT THIS AREA
WILL SEE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER BASED ON THE WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WAS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CWA...MAINLY CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTY COLORADO. JUST BEHIND
THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL BELOW 15%. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS BECOME BREEZY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE NEAR SUNSET. THEREFORE...THE 3 HOUR
DURATION BECOMES THE PROBLEM AGAIN FOR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH...THINK THAT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE THERE FOR A MENTION
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
516 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER TODAY FOLLOWED BY
HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE PHASE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND
COMPLICATED FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE DAY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS DID FINE HERE BUT HAVE TO GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE
TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT. THE NEWEST ECMWF WAS CATCHING THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD THE BEST. THE LATEST RUC IS
MATCHING THE ECMWF WHICH GIVES GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION.
THE GFS WAS DOING BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THAN THE
SREF AND ECMWF.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION.
COMPLICATED SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND PATTERN FOR TODAY. THIS IS MADE
POSSIBLE BY A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FOLLOWED BY A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AS A NEW OR RESTRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A LOT OF DOWNWARD MOTION TODAY WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WINDS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. PER
THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR THIS SCENARIO THAT WINDS USUALLY
END UP BEING LIGHTER. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
ECMWF WHICH IS BEING VERY WELL SUPPORTED BY THE RUC/HRRR. THIS WIND
FORECAST HAS IMPLICATIONS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST WHICH WILL
BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOING
BY WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES...MADE
ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES AND NWP HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE SURFACE/2
METER GUIDANCE. KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE WILL GET BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETS REMAIN WELL
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A WEAKER
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY DROP TO NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER AROUND UNTIL
VERY LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE IN THE FAR NORTH INCREASES
AS LIFT DOES GET CLOSER TO THERE. LEFT THE THIN SLIVER OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE IN NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH
THE NEW GUIDANCE.
DURING THE DAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO THICKEN. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL MAKE FOR COOLER MAXES. AGAIN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
GUIDANCE AS TO HOW COOL TO MAKE IT. TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER
2 METER/SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BEGINS AFFECTING THE
AREA...MAINLY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST HALF DURING THE MORNING. THAT
LIFT GETS STRONGER AS IT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE GENERAL LAYOUT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
INCREASING JET LIFT...DID INCREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOW THE QUESTION OF PHASE BEGINS. MODELS ARE COMING IN COOLER FOR
THE MAXES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THAT DOES MAKE SENSE
SINCE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND
CONTINUES/INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. SO LOWERED MAXES IN THE NORTHERN HALF INTO THE 30S.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND SOUNDING PROFILES...CONTINUED A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THROUGH THE DAY. IF TEMPERATURES COOL ANY FASTER...THEN THE PHASE
MAY STAY ALL SNOW. LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BUT AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN AFFECTED BY THIS
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT TO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. NEWER MODEL RUN LOOKS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING OUT THE LIFT. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT POPS
IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. LEFT THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ALONE FOR THE
NIGHT PERIOD SINCE THIS NEW GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT IT.
THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATES. WITH SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOW PRECIP. CHANCES FOR
THE DAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE
AREA...ONLY WARMING HIGHS TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER WARMER AIR
MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH PREVENTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AM LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP. CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH AS MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
THERE WILL BE TO WORK WITH AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. IN ADDITION
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH THE TRI-STATE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYNOPTIC LIFT OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR
WEST THE WARMER AIR WILL BE PUSHED BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA
AND HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE HIGHS WILL BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...RAISING TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AND SHIFTING TO DUE THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
FOR TODAY...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING TO VERY LOW VALUES. QUESTION
AS WAS DISCUSSED BY THE DAY SHIFT WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE. PER DISCUSSION ABOVE...TRANSITORY AND WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW STRONGER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY THAT NEAR 25
KNOTS WORTH OF WIND COULD GET MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...FLOW IS NOT UNIDIRECTIONAL BETWEEN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
WITH WEAK TO NO DOWNWARD MOTION TO HELP BRING HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. CANNOT SAY DEFINITIVELY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER THAT A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS OR GUSTS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
WILL REACH THE NEEDED CRITERIA. SO DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING SINCE THE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS
FOR THE REST OF THE SHIFT WITH THE DAY NEEDING TO GET A HANDLE ON
THIS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER TODAY FOLLOWED BY
HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE PHASE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND
COMPLICATED FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE DAY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS DID FINE HERE BUT HAVE TO GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE
TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT. THE NEWEST ECMWF WAS CATCHING THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD THE BEST. THE LATEST RUC IS
MATCHING THE ECMWF WHICH GIVES GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION.
THE GFS WAS DOING BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THAN THE
SREF AND ECMWF.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION.
COMPLICATED SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND PATTERN FOR TODAY. THIS IS MADE
POSSIBLE BY A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FOLLOWED BY A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AS A NEW OR RESTRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A LOT OF DOWNWARD MOTION TODAY WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WINDS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. PER
THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR THIS SCENARIO THAT WINDS USUALLY
END UP BEING LIGHTER. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
ECMWF WHICH IS BEING VERY WELL SUPPORTED BY THE RUC/HRRR. THIS WIND
FORECAST HAS IMPLICATIONS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST WHICH WILL
BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOING
BY WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES...MADE
ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES AND NWP HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE SURFACE/2
METER GUIDANCE. KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE WILL GET BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETS REMAIN WELL
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A WEAKER
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY DROP TO NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER AROUND UNTIL
VERY LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE IN THE FAR NORTH INCREASES
AS LIFT DOES GET CLOSER TO THERE. LEFT THE THIN SLIVER OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE IN NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH
THE NEW GUIDANCE.
DURING THE DAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO THICKEN. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL MAKE FOR COOLER MAXES. AGAIN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
GUIDANCE AS TO HOW COOL TO MAKE IT. TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER
2 METER/SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BEGINS AFFECTING THE
AREA...MAINLY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST HALF DURING THE MORNING. THAT
LIFT GETS STRONGER AS IT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE GENERAL LAYOUT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
INCREASING JET LIFT...DID INCREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOW THE QUESTION OF PHASE BEGINS. MODELS ARE COMING IN COOLER FOR
THE MAXES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THAT DOES MAKE SENSE
SINCE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND
CONTINUES/INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. SO LOWERED MAXES IN THE NORTHERN HALF INTO THE 30S.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND SOUNDING PROFILES...CONTINUED A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THROUGH THE DAY. IF TEMPERATURES COOL ANY FASTER...THEN THE PHASE
MAY STAY ALL SNOW. LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BUT AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN AFFECTED BY THIS
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT TO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. NEWER MODEL RUN LOOKS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING OUT THE LIFT. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT POPS
IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. LEFT THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ALONE FOR THE
NIGHT PERIOD SINCE THIS NEW GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT IT.
THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATES. WITH SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOW PRECIP. CHANCES FOR
THE DAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE
AREA...ONLY WARMING HIGHS TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER WARMER AIR
MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH PREVENTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AM LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP. CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH AS MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
THERE WILL BE TO WORK WITH AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. IN ADDITION
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH THE TRI-STATE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYNOPTIC LIFT OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR
WEST THE WARMER AIR WILL BE PUSHED BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA
AND HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE HIGHS WILL BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...RAISING TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AND SHIFTING DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE DAY WITH A REDEVELOPING
SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST HAPPENING LATE IN THE DAY. A STRONG
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
FOR TODAY...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING TO VERY LOW VALUES. QUESTION
AS WAS DISCUSSED BY THE DAY SHIFT WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE. PER DISCUSSION ABOVE...TRANSITORY AND WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW STRONGER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY THAT NEAR 25
KNOTS WORTH OF WIND COULD GET MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...FLOW IS NOT UNIDIRECTIONAL BETWEEN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
WITH WEAK TO NO DOWNWARD MOTION TO HELP BRING HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. CANNOT SAY DEFINITIVELY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER THAT A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS OR GUSTS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
WILL REACH THE NEEDED CRITERIA. SO DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING SINCE THE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS
FOR THE REST OF THE SHIFT WITH THE DAY NEEDING TO GET A HANDLE ON
THIS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1048 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION...WITH MAIN CENTER ACROSS SW
KS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOMINATED BY RIDING...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS/POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY. THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING DUE TO MELTING
SNOW...BUT WITH AIR MASS ALOFT WARMING THE TEMP TREND HAS BEEN
POSITIVE. I WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS...OTHERWISE AFTERNOON FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. WE COULD STILL SEE A SMALL AREA OF EASTERN RED
WILLOW/NORTHERN NORTON COUNTY IMPACTED BY SNOW PACK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (WHERE AMOUNTS 5-6" FELL)...OTHERWISE THIS SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WAA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH GOOD MIXING WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S (POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IN THE WEST). LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD
ALSO MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES WELL
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR CWA (MINIMAL SURFACE GRADIENT) WE WILL NEED WINDS ALOFT
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE MUCH OTHER THAN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. THERE IS A LACK OF UNIDIRECTIONAL
GRADIENT ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A VERTICAL THERMAL
GRADIENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS I AM WONDERING IF MODEL WINDS ARE TOO
STRONG ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON GUSTS IS EVEN SMALLER. I
DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH (ASSUMING
MODEL WINDS ALOFT ARE RIGHT) DUE TO THE FAVORABLE MIXING...BUT I
DOUBT THIS WOULD BE FOR 3HR IF IT DID OCCUR. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
RECENT SNOW MELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND MARGINAL WINDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA I AM NOT PLANNING A RFW AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
THIS FAR SOUTH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 09Z-12Z.
SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH AT 20-25 KNOTS FRIDAY...
PER THE HIGHER WIND SPEED SOLUTIONS PRESENTED BY THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER FROM THURSDAY
DUE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH 250 MB JET CORE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT
SOME UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND POSITION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET. EXPECT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY BY 12Z SATURDAY.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT KEEPING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE DAY. BASED ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES...PLACED
A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE MORNING...
BECOMING ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED OVER THE AREA...BUT A
COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SO...EXPECT DRY WEATHER...BUT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A VERY AMPLIFIED 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS OR THEIR INTENSITIES. FOR NOW...KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WEST COAST RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES
EAST BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AND SHIFTING DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE DAY WITH A REDEVELOPING
SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST HAPPENING LATE IN THE DAY. A STRONG
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
511 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
507 PM UPDATE: 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED 2ND LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTY W/A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW.
THE 18Z RUC SHOWED DECENT FORCING W/THIS AREA OF PRECIP IN THE
MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP. METARS/REPORTS AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. THEREFORE,
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THAT BAND
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAN W/100% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS AND LEANED W/ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES BY 00Z(8 PM).
ADDED DRIZZLE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AS THE LATEST LAPS/RUC
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH CONTD WEAK TO MOD LLVL COLD ADVCN AND INFLUENCE OF A DEPARTING
UPPER TROF...CLDS AND SN SHWRS WILL HOLD ON ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF
THE FA FRI...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
SKIES THEN CLR ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT...WITH ONLY SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY LATE FRI NGT...MSLY ACROSS WRN VLYS AS
THE SFC RIDGE APCHS ERLY SAT MORN. WE DID GO A LITTLE BLO GUIDANCE
LOW TEMPS ACROSS BROAD VLY LCTNS.
OTHERWISE...MODELS CONT TO INDICATE A SUB-SYNOPTIC S/W FROM THE
GREAT LKS BRINGING INCREASING CLDNSS SAT MORN AND MSLY LGT SNFL TO
THE REGION SAT AFTN INTO ERLY EVE. ATTM...THE AXIS OF GREATEST SNFL
SHOULD LINE UP ACROSS CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...BUT EVE HERE AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVR THE FAR N
DUE TO LESSER EVENT QPF AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SLIGHTLY
LESSER EVEN QPF COMBINES WITH WITH LOWER SN RATIOS (DUE TO SFC TEMPS
AT OR JUST ABV FZG. ALTHOUGH SN WILL BEGIN OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABV FZG...LLVL EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND
DYNAMIC COOLING FROM COLD TEMPS ALF WILL RESULT IN PRECIP BEING ALL
SN IN THIS PTN OF THE FA...WITH TEMPS COOLING BY SEVERAL DEG F WITH
THE COMMENCEMENT OF SNFL.
FOLLOWING THE STEADY LGT SNFL ERLY SAT EVE...THE REGION WILL GO BACK
TO A NRN SN SHWR REGIME LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN...WITH SN SQLS A
POSSIBILITY SUN AFTN WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT FROM QB.
HIGH TEMPS WILL AVG BLO NORMAL DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LOWS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLO NORMAL LOWS FRI NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND LINGER INTO
TUESDAY, LEADING TO DRY BUT COLD WEATHER. THE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENT PROGS KEEP THIS
SYSTEM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL ON THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM, SO THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THESE
PERIODS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATE WEEK ONCE THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND THEN VFR
CONDITIONS BY MORNING. VFR ON FRI.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS FOR NRN TAF SITES IN BKN-OVC SC AND
OCNL SN SHWRS XPCTD FRI...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES MSLY LOW VFR. ALL
SITES IMPROVE TO UNLMTD VFR OVRNGT FRI...CONTG INTO SAT MORN.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES WILL BRING A SHORT PD OF IFR WITH LGT SNFL
SPCLY TO CNTRL AND DOWNEAST SITES SAT AFTN INTO EVE. OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR NRN TAF SITES LATE SAT NGT THRU SUN
AND LOW VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES....WITH ALL SITES VFR SUN NGT THRU
MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONT INTO FRI...AND AT
LEAST INTO FRI EVE BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE FRI NGT. LESS THEN SCA
CONDITIONS ARE SLATED FOR SAT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY
INCREASING BACK TO SCA LATER SUN INTO SUN NGT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS FOR THIS UPDATE AND USED MODEL BLENDED
WINDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
303 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLDER DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE NRN ZONES HAS WORKED TO STEEPEN
THE LLVL LAPSE RATES...GENERATING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FINALLY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...MOISTURE IS DWINDLING AND A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE VISIBLE. WITH THE THICK CEILING MOST OF
THE DAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD NEAR STEADY. EVEN WITH THE MORE
POTENT SPRING SUN POKING THROUGH THE CLOUD DECK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ORIGINAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WONT BE REACHED. LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW THE LATEST LAMP TREND ACCORDINGLY.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN OFF TO THE WEST HAS GENERATED SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS INDIANA AND WRN OHIO EARLIER. THIS FEATURE WAS PICKED UP
EARLY BY THE LOCAL WRF AND THE RAP MODELS...AND IS DIAGNOSED TO
STREAM ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. DECIDED NOT TO CARRY ANY POPS WITH THIS
AS THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGER FURTHER SOUTH...AND THUS THE
DRIER SFC AIR WOULD BE HARDER TO OVERCOME. THIS CORRIDOR OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP FEED THE INITIAL PUSH OF THE WARMFRONT
S TO N ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW WHERE LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WILL FOCUS
ALONG THE FRONT. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP TO START THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG LLVL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN IN THE WARM SECTOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI THROUGH EARLY SAT. LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL KEEP QPF LOW. WITH MOST MODEL SOLNS
HONING IN ON THE OVERALL TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...DECIDED TO BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE.
MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY. THE NAM IS BY FAR THE FURTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE
GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AND EAST. WITH MODEL SPREAD
SO LARGE...CANT HELP BUT TO TAKE THE LESS DETERMINISTIC APPROACH
AND KEEP LOW CHC POPS AND LOWER QPF ALONG THE SE RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. LONG TERM SETTING UP AS
ANOTHER COLD PERIOD...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN BY THE END. A
SYSTEM TUESDAY MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...BUT A
LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS IS PROVIDING A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER
AIR AND TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS.
AFTER SUNSET SC CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCNL RSTRNS ARE PSBL FRI AND SAT AS LOW PRES CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES...OTRW GENL VFR EXPD.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
900 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.UPDATE...
WEAK UPPER S/WV WILL BE THE FOCUS INCREASING LIFT/MOISTURE WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE NW DELTA/HWY 82 CORRIDOR.
WEAK S/WV OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SPARKING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN E OK/W AR...MAINLY DUE TO SOME NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS
AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GFS IS FASTER WITH RAIN MOVING FARTHER E
NEAR I-55 BUT EURO/NAM/HI-RES WRF/HRRR ARE A TOUCH SLOWER. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV POPS TONIGHT BUT TRIMMED DOWN TO ALONG/NW OF A LINE
FROM MONROE TO W OF GOLDEN TRIANGLE THROUGH 12Z. KEPT SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER IN THE FAR NW AFTER 9Z AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATE
SOME NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS. CLOUDS WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE AS
INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. SOME AREAS IN THE FAR SE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE RUC INDICATES LOW SFC DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL NOT LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TOO
MUCH. LAV/HRRR INDICATE DECREASING VISIBILITIES IN THE SE AND DUE TO
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF LOWER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SE...LEFT PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS. LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN THE W AFTER
6Z. THUS KEPT MAV FOR LOWS W OF I-55 AND A BLEND OF MAV/EURO IN E
MS. OTHER THAN THOSE CHANGES...MODIFIED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO
CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
DESPITE INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
AT KHBG WHERE FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MVFR/IFR
BETWEEN 09-13Z. ISOLD TO SCT TSRAS WL BE PSBL SAT AFTN...WITH
GREATEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND IN THE SOUTH. /26/22/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014/
DISCUSSION...CLOUDS GENERALLY REMAINED THIN ENOUGH TODAY TO PROMOTE
LOTS OF WARMING...WITH HIGHS WAY UP INTO THE 70S IN MANY SPOTS. WHEN
REPORTS COME IN A LITTLE LATER IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE THAT
AT LEAST ONE LOCATION HIT 80.
LOOKS LIKE TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER WARM ONE...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY THANKS TO MORE CLOUDS AROUND IN ADVANCE
OF A SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SOUTHERN JET STREAM INTERACTION
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST ARKLAMISS DELTA
ZONES BY VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING TO SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER INTO THOSE AREAS FROM THE
WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PRECIP WILL QUICKLY
PASS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND MAY TRIGGER AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS UP ALONG THE REST OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR INTO THE MIDDAY
HOURS TOMORROW WHILE LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY DRY.
DESPITE DRY AND MILD EXPECTATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL BE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND TO DEAL WITH AND SOME OF THE LOW STUFF COULD MANIFEST
AS PATCHY (AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DENSE) FOG LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SE
MS.
EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAY NOT FIND MUCH PRECIP ON THE RADARS
AROUND THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GETS FOCUSED TO
OUR WEST NEAR A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE MORE LIKELY VERY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR
TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE
HEART OF THE REGION AND DRAGS THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT DOWN TO THE
COAST SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE LIFT...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDEED POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH SIGNALS TO WORRY ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE LACKING. AT
THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT SMALL HAIL AND SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH ARE PROBABLY THE MAIN CONCERNS. OF COURSE WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH OUT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE LARGE FLOODING WORRIES.
BY LATER SUNDAY MORNING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OR ALABAMA...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY TRY TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTH. IN
FACT...CONSIDERABLE CLEARING IN SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE HARD TO DO
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS
SEASONABLY CHILLY AND THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A
DEFINITE CONTRAST TO THE CURRENT WARM CONDITIONS.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER-TYPE COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND REINFORCING THE COOLER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUSLY-FORECASTED LOWS IN A RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S ARE CUTTING ALL AVAILABLE CURRENT GUIDANCE...BUT AT
THIS POINT DO NOT LOOK TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN ANOMALOUS NATURE OF AIR
MASS AS EXPLICITLY FORECAST BY OPERATIONAL MODELS. DECIDED TO
MENTION RISK OF FROST OR LIGHT FREEZE IN THE HWO SINCE WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE FRONT-END OF THE GROWING SEASON AND PAST THE POINT
OF AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATES. /BB/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE
THAT WE WILL BE REMAIN IN A COOLER PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THEY WERE ALSO IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. AS
WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD THE
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION AS WE GET BACK TO SOME LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A SHORT WAVE WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. WE WILL
START TO GET SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WHICH WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
MORNING LOWS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE HIGHS WILL WORK THEIR WAY BACK TO THE 65 TO 70 ON
THURSDAY AS WELL AS THE 70S BY FRIDAY.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND
NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS. /17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 53 75 54 59 / 9 27 89 36
MERIDIAN 48 77 54 61 / 9 18 75 53
VICKSBURG 55 73 52 59 / 10 36 94 25
HATTIESBURG 51 77 60 68 / 7 16 70 55
NATCHEZ 55 73 54 61 / 10 35 90 31
GREENVILLE 55 68 45 55 / 36 54 94 22
GREENWOOD 53 71 47 59 / 24 53 90 26
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/26/22/BB/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
838 PM MDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS MODELS
INDICATE MOISTURE UP TO 300 MB. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING BEST
INSTABILITY FROM HYSHAM WEST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS. STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN BIG
HORN AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WYOMING FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING 3 TO
5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM LODGE GRASS TO SHERIDAN. WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT. WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND POPS
TONIGHT. RICHMOND
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...
SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. FRONTOGENESIS HAD DECREASED OVER
THE REGION PER THE RAP MODEL AND CHANNELED VORTICITY WAS MOVING
NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. BASED ON THE KBLX VAD WIND
PROFILE...WINDS WERE NE UP TO 7000 FT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
SE IN THE FLOW LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL GENERATE MORE FRONTOGENESIS
OVER THE AREA AND ENHANCE THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN NE UPSLOPE
AREAS. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS LOOKED FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF SHERIDAN COUNTY AS WELL
AS S BIG HORN COUNTY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT WITH GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH
FORECAST OVER THESE AREAS. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SLICK ROADS AGAIN...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR
MIDNIGHT MDT THROUGH 4 PM MDT SAT. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS W OF
KBIL AS WELL TONIGHT...AS MODEL QPF AMOUNTS WERE SIMILAR TO THOSE
IN KSHR. HOWEVER...TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DID NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY
THERE AT THIS TIME.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA ON SAT. FRONTOGENESIS
AND MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE
WAVE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER S
CENTRAL AND SE AREAS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BASED ON EXPECTED MIXING. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...SEEN OFF
THE COAST OF N BC ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
APPROACH THE REGION IN NW FLOW SAT NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. JET SUPPORT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUN AS
WELL. HAD SOME CHANCE POPS OVER NW AND W AREAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SAT NIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL SINK SW OVER THE AREA ON SUN AND
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. MODELS WERE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH THEIR QPF SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH THE WRF BEING
DRIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS HOLDING
ONTO THE QPF LONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR NOW...WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER NW/N CENTRAL ZONES SUN MORNING AS MODELS DID
AGREE ON THIS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. SHIFTED BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SW HALF OF THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWING THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTOGENESIS. LEFT
BROADBRUSH MAINLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT.
HIGHLIGHTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PLACES LIKE THE FOOTHILLS
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT ON SYSTEM DETAILS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR SUN. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM THANKS
TO PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT ORIGINATING ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE 12 UTC
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WELL ON THAT BASIC THEME...WITH INITIALLY COLD
AIR OF CONTINENTAL ORIGINS LINGERING MON...THEN QUICKLY EXITING BY
TUE AS TRANSIENT /BUT WELL-FORMED/ MID-LEVEL RIDGING SURGES OUT OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS GOOD
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN THIS EVOLUTION...AND SINCE THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED WITH THAT OVERALL IDEA AS
WELL...WE ELECTED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY TUE. A BIAS-
CORRECTED...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS LED THE WAY WITH THOSE CHANGES.
BY WED...MODEL SPREAD STARTS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF A
LARGER-SCALE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION WED OR
THU. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL BE ELEVATED IN THAT PERIOD...WHICH
REMAINS SUPPORTED BY MOS-BASED POPS THAT ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. WE
MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THAT WED AND THU PERIOD ONCE
GUIDANCE SETTLES IN ON COMMON TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALSO LIKELY IN THAT TIME FRAME...SO HIGHS COULD
FALL BACK A BIT AGAIN BY THU TOO. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF IFR WEATHER ARE
FROM 08 TO 16 UTC IN THE KBIL AND KSHR AREAS. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 015/026 018/036 018/036 019/048 031/047 028/045 029/049
85/S 26/O 33/J 21/B 12/W 33/W 22/W
LVM 009/026 015/037 015/035 019/049 030/047 029/045 027/045
63/S 27/O 53/J 31/B 13/W 33/W 32/W
HDN 015/027 017/038 017/039 018/048 029/050 027/046 028/050
85/S 16/O 43/J 21/B 12/W 33/W 22/W
MLS 013/025 015/036 019/037 015/045 027/047 028/041 027/049
22/S 14/O 32/J 11/B 12/W 22/W 22/W
4BQ 014/026 014/036 018/037 016/047 029/050 028/044 029/049
56/S 14/O 42/J 11/B 12/W 33/W 22/W
BHK 010/023 011/032 017/034 011/039 022/046 026/041 024/047
11/B 13/S 32/J 11/B 12/W 22/W 22/W
SHR 015/025 012/038 016/037 016/048 028/047 026/044 025/046
+8/S 26/O 54/J 31/B 12/W 44/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4
PM MDT SATURDAY FOR ZONE 38.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4
PM MDT SATURDAY FOR ZONE 99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1254 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
WARM AIR WILL SURGE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS OF
BATCHES OF CIRRUS DEVELOPING OFF THE TETONS IN WYOMING WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE LESS THAN FULL SUN CONDITIONS TODAY SO THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE VERY WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED RAP AND
50 PERCENT OF THE NAM...ECM AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. 50S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE SNOW FIELD
LOCATED ACROSS NCNTL NEB.
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 KTS WHICH MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH BUT OVER JUST A SMALL PART OF NCNTL NEB EAST OF VALENTINE
AS SHOWN BY THE NAM. THE MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT OR THE PACIFIC HIGH BUILDING IN AND THIS IS LIKELY THE
REASON FOR THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
ACTIVE PATTERN TO DEVELOP IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW USHER IN A SERIES OF OPEN SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY
UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND CAA. THE FRONT ARRIVES WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
HOWEVER A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
AREA REVEAL STEEP LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH EXTEND INTO
A MARGINALLY SATURATED LOWER DENDRITIC LAYER. A FEW SHOWERY TYPE
SNOW/FLURRY BURSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY AS A 1040 MB HIGH SETTLES JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS ALLOWS FOR A UPSLOPE EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AS A
RESULT...LIGHT SNOW WILL FOCUS ALONG A MID-LEVEL FRONTOBAND AND
WITHIN A FAVORABLE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. ATTM...LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
UPGLIDE MAINLY TARGETING THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. ANY
ADDITIONAL QPF ON SUNDAY WOULD BE LIGHT...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS ANTICIPATED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. LONG RANGE MODELS ONCE AGAIN INDICATE STRONG
UPGLIDE ALONG THE 285K SURFACE INTO OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. GFS IS
MOST AMBITIOUS WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND DIGS THE WAVE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE EC WHICH MAINTAINS THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WILL
MAINTAIN SUB 40 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. BEYOND
MONDAY THE MODELS AGREE THAT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST ATOP THE HIGH
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE EAST AND WAA BUILDING
FROM THE WEST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS
PUSHING THE MID 50S FOR OUR SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BRIEFLY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. A SECONDARY
SURGE OCCURS TOWARDS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 25
KTS...OR HIGHER...AFTER SUNRISE. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS DIRECTING A WARM SURGE OF DRY AIR THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40
MPH AS SHOWN BY THE NAM...MOSGUIDE...RAP AND HRRR MODELS. THE RAP
SHOWS THE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ACROSS WY MOVING WELL INTO THE
FCST AREA AND LOWERING TO LESS THAN 5F. THE STRONGEST WINDS INCREASE
MARKEDLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
NAM...ECM AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST INCORPORATES MOISTENING OF THE DRY
AIR AS IT MOVES ACROSS RESIDUAL SNOW COVER IN WYOMING AND THE NEB
PANHANDLE.
THIS MAY BE A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST GIVEN THE SKILL OF THE RAP AND
HRRR MODELS THIS SPRING. THE FRENCHMAN BASIN AND CENTRAL SANDHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT THIS AFTN AND IT IS JUST A MATTER OF AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FOR CRITICAL FIRE LEVELS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
626 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
WARM AIR WILL SURGE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS OF
BATCHES OF CIRRUS DEVELOPING OFF THE TETONS IN WYOMING WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE LESS THAN FULL SUN CONDITIONS TODAY SO THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE VERY WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED RAP AND
50 PERCENT OF THE NAM...ECM AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. 50S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE SNOW FIELD
LOCATED ACROSS NCNTL NEB.
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 KTS WHICH MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH BUT OVER JUST A SMALL PART OF NCNTL NEB EAST OF VALENTINE
AS SHOWN BY THE NAM. THE MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT OR THE PACIFIC HIGH BUILDING IN AND THIS IS LIKELY THE
REASON FOR THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
ACTIVE PATTERN TO DEVELOP IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW USHER IN A SERIES OF OPEN SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY
UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND CAA. THE FRONT ARRIVES WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
HOWEVER A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
AREA REVEAL STEEP LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH EXTEND INTO
A MARGINALLY SATURATED LOWER DENDRITIC LAYER. A FEW SHOWERY TYPE
SNOW/FLURRY BURSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY AS A 1040 MB HIGH SETTLES JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS ALLOWS FOR A UPSLOPE EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AS A
RESULT...LIGHT SNOW WILL FOCUS ALONG A MID-LEVEL FRONTOBAND AND
WITHIN A FAVORABLE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. ATTM...LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
UPGLIDE MAINLY TARGETING THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. ANY
ADDITIONAL QPF ON SUNDAY WOULD BE LIGHT...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS ANTICIPATED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. LONG RANGE MODELS ONCE AGAIN INDICATE STRONG
UPGLIDE ALONG THE 285K SURFACE INTO OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. GFS IS
MOST AMBITIOUS WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND DIGS THE WAVE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE EC WHICH MAINTAINS THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WILL
MAINTAIN SUB 40 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. BEYOND
MONDAY THE MODELS AGREE THAT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST ATOP THE HIGH
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE EAST AND WAA BUILDING
FROM THE WEST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS
PUSHING THE MID 50S FOR OUR SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS MT...MOVES THROUGH
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS DIRECTING A WARM SURGE OF DRY AIR THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40
MPH AS SHOWN BY THE NAM...MOSGUIDE...RAP AND HRRR MODELS. THE RAP
SHOWS THE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ACROSS WY MOVING WELL INTO THE
FCST AREA AND LOWERING TO LESS THAN 5F. THE STRONGEST WINDS INCREASE
MARKEDLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
NAM...ECM AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST INCORPORATES MOISTENING OF THE DRY
AIR AS IT MOVES ACROSS RESIDUAL SNOW COVER IN WYOMING AND THE NEB
PANHANDLE.
THIS MAY BE A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST GIVEN THE SKILL OF THE RAP AND
HRRR MODELS THIS SPRING. THE FRENCHMAN BASIN AND CENTRAL SANDHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT THIS AFTN AND IT IS JUST A MATTER OF AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FOR CRITICAL FIRE LEVELS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
WARM AIR WILL SURGE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS OF
BATCHES OF CIRRUS DEVELOPING OFF THE TETONS IN WYOMING WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE LESS THAN FULL SUN CONDITIONS TODAY SO THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE VERY WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED RAP AND
50 PERCENT OF THE NAM...ECM AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. 50S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE SNOW FIELD
LOCATED ACROSS NCNTL NEB.
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 KTS WHICH MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH BUT OVER JUST A SMALL PART OF NCNTL NEB EAST OF VALENTINE
AS SHOWN BY THE NAM. THE MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT OR THE PACIFIC HIGH BUILDING IN AND THIS IS LIKELY THE
REASON FOR THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
ACTIVE PATTERN TO DEVELOP IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW USHER IN A SERIES OF OPEN SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY
UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND CAA. THE FRONT ARRIVES WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
HOWEVER A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
AREA REVEAL STEEP LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH EXTEND INTO
A MARGINALLY SATURATED LOWER DENDRITIC LAYER. A FEW SHOWERY TYPE
SNOW/FLURRY BURSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY AS A 1040 MB HIGH SETTLES JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS ALLOWS FOR A UPSLOPE EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AS A
RESULT...LIGHT SNOW WILL FOCUS ALONG A MID-LEVEL FRONTOBAND AND
WITHIN A FAVORABLE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. ATTM...LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
UPGLIDE MAINLY TARGETING THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. ANY
ADDITIONAL QPF ON SUNDAY WOULD BE LIGHT...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS ANTICIPATED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. LONG RANGE MODELS ONCE AGAIN INDICATE STRONG
UPGLIDE ALONG THE 285K SURFACE INTO OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. GFS IS
MOST AMBITIOUS WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND DIGS THE WAVE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE EC WHICH MAINTAINS THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WILL
MAINTAIN SUB 40 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. BEYOND
MONDAY THE MODELS AGREE THAT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST ATOP THE HIGH
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE EAST AND WAA BUILDING
FROM THE WEST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS
PUSHING THE MID 50S FOR OUR SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS AON 25000
FT AGL AT BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH 17Z
THURSDAY...INCREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS THURSDAY EVENING. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE KLBF TERMINAL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LATE THURSDAY EVENING...AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS DIRECTING A WARM SURGE OF DRY AIR THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40
MPH AS SHOWN BY THE NAM...MOSGUIDE...RAP AND HRRR MODELS. THE RAP
SHOWS THE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ACROSS WY MOVING WELL INTO THE
FCST AREA AND LOWERING TO LESS THAN 5F. THE STRONGEST WINDS INCREASE
MARKEDLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
NAM...ECM AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST INCORPORATES MOISTENING OF THE DRY
AIR AS IT MOVES ACROSS RESIDUAL SNOW COVER IN WYOMING AND THE NEB
PANHANDLE.
THIS MAY BE A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST GIVEN THE SKILL OF THE RAP AND
HRRR MODELS THIS SPRING. THE FRENCHMAN BASIN AND CENTRAL SANDHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT THIS AFTN AND IT IS JUST A MATTER OF AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FOR CRITICAL FIRE LEVELS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LEESIDE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BECOMES ENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING
AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL AFFECT THE
AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM THU...A WEAK LEE TROUGH IS FINALLY LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT
DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A VERY DRY
AIRMASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WIDE
TEMP/DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE NO FOG IS
ANTICIPATED. LOWS REGIONWIDE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM THU...MILDER WEATHER ON TAP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FRI/SAT AND AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT
EARLY SPRING DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER
(ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEAN IN PROXIMITY TO THE GULF STREAM). HIGHS
ON SATURDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD
ONTO A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. THERE IS ALSO STRONG CONSENSUS IN DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL
WAVE AND AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY SO
EXPECT A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM THU...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER THEMES WILL SHIFT FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. COINCIDING WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NOW HAVE BEEN POINTING TO AN ANOMALOUS PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS -1.5 TO -2 SD AND 850 TEMPS OF -2SD WHICH
IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE MARCH.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEATHER FORECAST THEN BECOMES TRICKY WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SE COAST MON NIGHT AND MOVING NE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
LATE MON NIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE...AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT PSBL WINTRY MIX AS PCPN BEGINS TO
CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN TUE AFTN AS THICKNESSES WARM. WILL HANDLE
WINTRY PRECIP AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW. MEASURABLE SNOW MAY
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA BUT NOT GOING TO BUY OFF ON SUCH AN ANOMALOUS
SOLUTION THAT FAR OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW 50 FOR MON-WED WHICH WILL BE AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS! A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL
BEGIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON THU.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM THU...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS...THEREFORE
NO FOG IS ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SATURDAY WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW
EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEAN IN PROXIMITY TO THE GULF STREAM. THERE
IS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AS COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM THU...SEAS HAVE GENERALLY SUBSIDED TO 4 TO 5 FT OFF
THE OUTER BANKS. THE OREGON INLET BUOY CONTINUES TO RUN JUST OVER
5 FT...HOWEVER THE WAVES ARE ALL SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS.
DESPITE BEING CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA...DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR
HEADLINES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KT OR LESS.
USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT AS THE HIGH
PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM THU...LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE VA BORDER BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW ITS CROSSING THE WATERS LEANING
TOWARDS THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE FRONT WILL START TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING CAPE
LOOKOUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT OFF THE NC COAST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SURGE OF WIND
AND COOLER AIR ACROSS ALL THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
DECREASING TO 15 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS PERIOD
OF DECREASING WIND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COASTAL STORM
STARTS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OFF THE SC COAST TUESDAY MORNING PASSING
OFF THE NC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH END SMALL
CRAFT TO LOW END GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...JAO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1119 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE WELL OFF THE COAST THE REST OF TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BECOMES ENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING
AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM THU...A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH
TODAY AS A WEAK LEE TROUGH POSITIONED IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND SKY COVER FOR LATE THIS MORNING AS MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO DOWNSLOPING W-NW FLOW. TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WITH
COOLER READINGS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AND BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WIDE TEMP/DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE OVERNIGHT
SO NO FOG IS FORECAST. LOWS THROUGHOUT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER THEMES WILL SHIFT FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY THEN AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. COINCIDING WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IF THE 00Z GFS IS CORRECT. WHILE
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS AND THUS IMPACTS OF
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
POINTING TO AN ANOMALOUS PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS -1.5 TO -2 SD AND 850 TEMPS OF -2SD!
FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT EARLY SPRING DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION OFF THE COAST SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD APPROACH 80
DEGREES. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SIGNAL A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND ECMWF SO
WILL FOLLOW SUITE. THIS WILL ALLOW MILDER TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THERE IS ALSO STRONG CONSENSUS IN
DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE AND AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY SO INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEATHER FORECAST THEN BECOMES TRICKY WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SE COAST MON NIGHT AND MOVING NE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. ECMWF IS STRONGER AND CLOSER TO COAST WHICH WOULD INDICATE
STRONG NOR`EASTER TYPE CONDITIONS FOR ERN NC INTO TUE NIGHT...WHILE
GFS WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE. BOTH INDICATE PCPN DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE...AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT PSBL WINTRY MIX AS PCPN BEGINS WITH
CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN TUE AFTN AS THICKNESSES WARM. WILL HANDLE WITH
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE MON NIGHT...INCREASING TO CHC TUE
MORNING...THEN CHC RAIN TUE AFTN. FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS WAS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA BUT NOT GOING TO BUY OFF ON SUCH AN ANOMALOUS
SOLUTION THAT FAR OUT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW 50 FOR MON-WED WHICH WILL BE AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS!
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM THU...DRY FRONT IS ESTIMATED IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
MOVING QUICKLY EAST...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MID-
MORNING. UNTIL THAT TIME LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCT/BKN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/FOG. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
FORECASTING CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS SO NO FOG FORECAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM AROUND SUNSET AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SATURDAY WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW
EXPECTED. THERE IS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AS COLD HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/
AS OF 11 AM THU...SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRNET TRENDS. WINDS HAVE ALSO SLACKED
OFF A BIT RUNNING BETERRN 5 TO 15 KT. USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND
RAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FRONT TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST MID- MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT HEADLINES. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO BE
SLOWER IN CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE
FLOW SHIFTING TO NRLY 15-20 KT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SAT NIGHT
NORTHERN WATERS AND REMAINDER OF WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NRLY
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE WITH CAA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FT FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THEN BUILD TO 4-6 FT
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY THEN BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COLD ADVECTION/NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM THU...ONLY LIGHT FOG LEFT ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. FOG
HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL INLAND SITES. WILL REMOVE MENTION FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISC...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS AN
850MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH 850MB CAA WEAKENING
THE INVERSION ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS TO FINALLY
DISSIPATE. MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE ERODING THE
INVERSION AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THE TRENDS THE
BEST WHICH DOES SHOW CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND DISSIPATING LATE
TONIGHT. NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED HOWEVER
SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES
CLEAR ENOUGH TO BRING ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BRINGING STRONGER SFC CAA
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE RETURN OF THE SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AND CLEARING SKIES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z RUNS
OF ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW AFFECTING AREA NEXT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT LEADING
TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR PSBL WINTER WX THREAT THAT
PERIOD.
IN WAKE OF SHRT WV TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSAGE...MARITIME HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN THU NIGHT WITH MID TO UPR
30S INLAND...BUT THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. EVEN WARMER FOR SAT WITH W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONT...HIGHS APPROACHING MID 70S INLAND.
SERIES OF SHRT WVS WILL PUSH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT THROGH AREA LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. INITIAL FRONTAL INTRUSION LOOKS DRY WITH LIMITED
MSTR AND LIFT...BUT KEPT 20 POPS WITH A FEW MODELS INDICATING SOME
LIGHT QPF SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN WILL BE IN WAKE OF FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH SECONDARY SHRT WV AND
WEAK OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING AS LOW LV WINDS BECOME NE...AND
INCREASED POPS TO 30% DURING THE DAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SE COAST MON NIGHT AND MOVING NE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. ECMWF IS STRONGER AND CLOSER TO COAST WHICH WOULD INDICATE
STRONG NOR`EASTER TYPE CONDITIONS FOR ERN NC INTO TUE NIGHT...WHILE
GFS WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE. BOTH INDICATE PCPN POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVER AREA LATE MON NIGHT WITH COLD AIR MASS STILL IN
PLACE...AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT PSBL WINTRY MIX AS PCPN
BEGINS WITH CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN IN AFTN AS THICKNESSES WARM. WILL
HANDLE WITH SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE MON NIGHT...INCREASING
TO CHC TUE MORNING...THEN CHC RAIN TUE AFTN. FOLLOWED HPC AND GFS
BLEND FOR NOW WITH NO PCPN FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED...BUT ECMWF WOULD
SUPPORT A LINGERING THREAT AND PSBL CHANGE BACK TO FROZEN PCPN WITH
TRACK MORE ALONG COAST.
MAX TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN MAINLY BELOW
50 FOR MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM WED...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS RTES THIS
EVENING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE ERODING THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT 850MB FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFT TO W AND
INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 850MB CAA WILL ALLOW THE INVERSION TO
ERODE FROM ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING STATUS TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THE TRENDS THE
BEST. HOWEVER...WITH NEAR SATURATED SFC CONDITIONS...ANY CLEARING
WILL BRING IMPROVED RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...SO THE THREAT FOR CONDITIONS AOB IFR
PERSISTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AROUND DAYBREAK WITH W/NW FLOW BRINGING CAA AND DRYING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 12Z. W/NW WINDS AROUND 10-15
KT EXPECTED THURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SUB VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR RETURNING FOR
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING IN AGAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 9 PM WED...A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO BISECT THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH LIGHT SE FLOW TO THE EAST AND LIGHT SW FLOW TO THE
WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT WITH SW TO WLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENN VALLEYS.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE
A 7-10 FT MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL PERSISTS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS ARE
SUBSIDING A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREDICTED BY THE MODELS WITH 40136
NOW DOWN TO 4 FT AND HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
WILL KEEP SCA FROM OCRACOKE TO LOOKOUT AS WRAP AROUND SWELL LIKELY
KEEPING ELEVATED SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THIS ZONE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THURS MORNING WITH WINDS
BECOMING NW AROUND 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS AROUND 4-7 FT
NORTH AND 2-5 FT SOUTH CONTINUE THURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AT
OR ABOVE 6 FT WILL LINGER INTO THU EVENING FOR NRN WATERS AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO NRLY 15-20 KT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT WILL CONTINUE WITH CAA SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FT BRIEFLY FRI INTO EARLY
SAT...THEN BUILD AGAIN TO 5-7 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1 AM THU...SEAS 2 AND 10 MILES OFF DUCK ARE 6 AND 7 FEET
RESPECTIVELY. HAVE LET THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 1 AM.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...SK/BM/JME
MARINE...SK/CQD/JME
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
345 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SHIFTING THE TRACK OF THE
MID-LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY SOUTH. THIS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ARE SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS. THE 15Z MPX HOPWRF
FOLLOWS THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY STRONG UPPER WAVE ABOUT TO
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS SYSTEM PROPAGATES EAST...700MB
TROUGH WILL BE NEAR DEVILS LAKE AROUND 06Z...THEN DEVELOP INTO A
700MB LOW NEAR GRAND FORKS (OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH) BY 09Z...THEN
BETWEEN BEMIDJI AND PARK RAPIDS BY 12Z...AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THEREAFTER. AS THIS UNFOLDS...EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...BECOMING HEAVIER AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS.
THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD OCCUR JUST NORTH OF THE 700MB LOW
TRACK...WHICH IS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND FORKS
TO BEMIDJI (OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TRACK). MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES QPF IN THIS
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. WITHIN THE
HEAVIER QPF AREA...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MESOSCALE BANDING
(FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCH...CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY)
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING QPF OF AN INCH OR
MORE (COULD EVEN BE ISOLD THUNDER). A BIG QUESTION IS LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING. FOLLOWED THE RAP
925MB TEMPS FOR RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER (WHICH USUALLY DOES A
DECENT JOB IN THESE SITUATIONS)...AND USED A LOWER SNOW RATIO
(10:1-13:1) AS PER THE ROEBBER METHOD. THIS KEEPS THE SNOW AMOUNT
FORECAST SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THE ONLY CHANGE
WILL BE TO MENTION LOCALIZED AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO A FOOT OF
SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA (LIKELY EAST OF THE VALLEY).
THE OTHER CONCERN IS THEN WIND POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...WITH 925MB WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN ADIABATIC TO 925MB
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS STAYING AROUND
35 KNOTS (ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WIND
SPEEDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOT SURE HOW THESE WINDS
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRESH SNOW. WITHOUT ANY FALLING
SNOW...GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE NEW SNOW ALONG
WITH THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...THE CANADIAN BLOWING MODEL
SUGGESTS WE NEED 35 TO 40 KNOTS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (WHICH
SHOULD NOT OCCUR). COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE IT IS NEAR ZERO
VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE MORE PRONE OPEN AREAS...BUT NOT
CONSISTENTLY A BLIZZARD (THIS IS FOR AREAS CURRENTLY IN A WINTER
HEADLINE ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). FOR AREAS EXPECTING ONLY A
TRACE OF SNOWFALL (SOUTHEAST ND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
MN)...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY. IF THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS IS MORE THAN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...THIS COULD BE
CHANGED TO A WINTER WX ADVISORY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY SETS UP...SMALL REFINEMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED TO HEADLINES AND SNOW AMOUNTS (FOR EXAMPLE...SNOW AMOUNTS
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED SOME). THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEM ARE DIFFICULT (P-TYPE AND TRACK ISSUES)...AND
MODELS OFTEN DO NOT HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE HANDLE UNTIL 6 HOURS
BEFOREHAND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLIER IN THE EVENING
MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD FOR LATE
MARCH WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS ACROSS NORTHEAST ND
INTO NORTHWEST MN.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ABOVE ZERO...WHICH ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW LATE MARCH NORMALS.
EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MOST PROMINENT
SHORT-WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP. BIGGER SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S UNTIL WED/THURS WHEN SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE WITH
EASTWARD MOVING INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LAST OF THE FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MN TO DISSIPATE NO LATER THAN MID-AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED REGION-WIDE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
PRECIP WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00 UTC INITIALLY AS
RAIN...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SUB-FREEZING AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE WITH RAIN/SNOW AND
VISIBILITY COULD DROP AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE BY FRIDAY MORNING
IN BLOWING SNOW AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS.
18 UTC TAFS ARE A BEST FIRST GUESS CONCERNING TIMING AND PHASE OF
PRECIP...BUT UPDATES WILL BE NECESSARY ONCE PRECIP DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN ND.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ038-039-049-
052-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028>030-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR NDZ008-016-027.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ003-027-029-
030-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR MNZ023-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR MNZ002-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013>015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR MNZ006-009-016-017.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
108 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 50S OVER KDIK THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDATED THE AFTERNOON FORECAST TO INCREASE HIGHS
SOUTHWEST.
LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK CAPE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD
EAST PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOW FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO COLLABORATE WITH GRAND
FORKS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST HEADLINES AS NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
AREA RADARS DEPICT LIGHT ECHOES MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE 12Z KBIS SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST LAYER
BETWEEN 750MB-600MB...WITH A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 750MB.
THINK MOST...IF NOT ALL...THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. STILL...THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ARE
LOCATED OVER BOTTINEAU...ROLETTE...AND PIERCE COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR
THAT AREA.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK CAPE (~150 J/KG)...ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN NON-SEVERE.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SNOW AND WIND ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE 06Z MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WEAKER WITH THE
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT UNTIL THE 12Z MODEL RUNS
COME IN BEFORE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR BLOWING SNOW. THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS TRACKING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE
BACK EDGE HAS CLEARED THIS AREA. VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA RADARS
MOST LIKELY HITTING ON MID LEVEL CLOUDS. STRONGER RETURNS JUST
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. 09Z
HRRR AND 10Z RUC INDICATE THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED AREA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY WHEN
BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE UPDATE
DEALT MAINLY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING AND DROPPING POPS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER
THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SNOW AMOUNTS...AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AROUND IDAHO/MONTANA/ALBERTA.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE STATE. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW/FRONT SHOULD BE SITUATED NEAR
MINOT/BISMARCK/DEVILS LAKE/JAMESTOWN AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES AROUND 200 J/KG ARE FORECAST BY THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS. THUS
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DAY 1 SPC GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK TODAY IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT
OF YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...COLD AIR THAT WILL ORIGINATE ALONG
THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE. RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH AROUND 6-HR 14MB
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE...IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES OVER THE STATE FRIDAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW
SHOULD MAINLY BE OF THE "WET SNOW" TYPE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON - WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND HIGHER ACCUMULATING SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM
RENVILLE/WARD/MCLEAN COUNTIES AND EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
- COORDINATED WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE AND THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES EAST TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. PATCHY TO MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ANTICIPATED
NORTHWEST WINDS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...WITH A
WINDY...DAMP...AND COLDER DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO
MORE WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF
SPRING. AFTER A BOUT OF SNOW AND WIND IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A
PIECE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A 1036-1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PROGGED OVER CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION ON SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WE COULD SEE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND COLD.
A CLIPPER SLIDING DOWN A BUILDING WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON WINDS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT WINDS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD AIR WILL REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. THEN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA WILL PRODUCE LIKELY CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT IN KMOT AND KISN. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1010 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
AREA RADARS DEPICT LIGHT ECHOES MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE 12Z KBIS SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST LAYER
BETWEEN 750MB-600MB...WITH A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 750MB.
THINK MOST...IF NOT ALL...THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. STILL...THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ARE
LOCATED OVER BOTTINEAU...ROLETTE...AND PIERCE COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR
THAT AREA.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK CAPE (~150 J/KG)...ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN NON-SEVERE.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SNOW AND WIND ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE 06Z MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WEAKER WITH THE
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT UNTIL THE 12Z MODEL RUNS
COME IN BEFORE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR BLOWING SNOW. THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS TRACKING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE
BACK EDGE HAS CLEARED THIS AREA. VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA RADARS
MOST LIKELY HITTING ON MID LEVEL CLOUDS. STRONGER RETURNS JUST
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. 09Z
HRRR AND 10Z RUC INDICATE THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED AREA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY WHEN
BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE UPDATE
DEALT MAINLY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING AND DROPPING POPS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER
THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SNOW AMOUNTS...AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AROUND IDAHO/MONTANA/ALBERTA.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE STATE. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW/FRONT SHOULD BE SITUATED NEAR
MINOT/BISMARCK/DEVILS LAKE/JAMESTOWN AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES AROUND 200 J/KG ARE FORECAST BY THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS. THUS
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DAY 1 SPC GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK TODAY IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT
OF YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...COLD AIR THAT WILL ORIGINATE ALONG
THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE. RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH AROUND 6-HR 14MB
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE...IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES OVER THE STATE FRIDAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW
SHOULD MAINLY BE OF THE "WET SNOW" TYPE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON - WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND HIGHER ACCUMULATING SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM
RENVILLE/WARD/MCLEAN COUNTIES AND EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
- COORDINATED WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE AND THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES EAST TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. PATCHY TO MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ANTICIPATED
NORTHWEST WINDS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...WITH A
WINDY...DAMP...AND COLDER DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO
MORE WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF
SPRING. AFTER A BOUT OF SNOW AND WIND IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A
PIECE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A 1036-1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PROGGED OVER CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION ON SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WE COULD SEE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND COLD.
A CLIPPER SLIDING DOWN A BUILDING WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON WINDS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT WINDS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD AIR WILL REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. THEN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AFT 18Z AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD THROUGH 02Z-06Z...WITH A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. -SHRA LIKELY AFT
18Z. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT LOW PROBABILITY PRECLUDES INCLUSION IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. AFT 02Z-06Z RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
856 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
DENSE FOG HAS EXPANDED EAST OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY...AND WILL
EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE EAST ACCORDINGLY. NOT SURE
HOW LONG THIS DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE...BUT IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF
BREAKING APART. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HAS LOW VSBY THROUGH 16Z-
18Z...SO WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z (AND WILL CANCEL EARLY
IF NEEDED).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A NARROW PORTION OF NW MN
JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE BY
MID MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS A BIT BUT OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM/RELATED HAZARDS
AND TEMPERATURES. NAM/ECMWF/GEM VERY CLOSE WITH SURFACE LOW TRACK
WITH GFS A TAD FARTHER SOUTH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS MAJORITY NORTHERN
SOLUTION.
IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
UNDER SKC/LIGHT WINDS TO TODAYS MELT. SO FAR DENSE FOG IS ISOLD
AND HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT ANTICIPATED. FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY SURFACE LOW OVER FAR N
CENTRAL MT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL PROPAGATE ESE INTO CENTRAL ND BY EVENING. WITH MILD
START AND WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT/ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. AS LOW APPROACHES COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA ALONG AND
AHEAD OF NW- SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY. SHOWALTERS APPROACH ZERO
HOWEVER HARD TO FIND ANY CAPE SO LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT BUT ITS
POSSIBLE.
SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS CENTRAL FA OVERNIGHT WITH 850MB LOW TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES INCREASE TO
BETTER THAN A HALF INCH AND RESPECTABLE TROWAL SETTING UP ACROSS N
MN INTO NE ND. WITH WAVE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY COMPACT BUT ROBUST
COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER SNOW BANDS SET UP. INITIALLY WILL LIKELY
SEE WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCH LOCALLY MORE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM NORTHERN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MN. AFTER
MIDNIGHT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW FA AFFECTING EASTERN ND
BY MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH REMAINDER OF FA FRIDAY MORNING AS
LOW SHIFTS EAST. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH DEFORMATION SNOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE FA DURING THE MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. ACCOMPANYING THE COLD ADVECTION 925MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 TO 40+ KNOTS. NOT SURE ON BLSN
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA AS SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTION ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
MORE SNOW DID FALL. WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND EVENTUAL WIND
HAVE UPGRADED WATCH TO A WARNING FROM THE NORTHERN VALLEY EASTWARD
WITH A BUFFERING ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND LINGER SNOW
DIMINISHES. ALTHOUGH SOME MIXING EXPECTED STEADY COLD ADVECTION
AND FRESH SNOW SHOULD DROP MINIMUMS MOST AREAS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT UNSEASONALLY COLD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE NIGHTIME LOWS AND MINIMUMS BLO ZERO OVER
FRESH SNOW AREAS.
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS CANADA
WITH LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER AK AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/EASTERN PACIFIC DOES SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. THE ECMWF BECOMES FASTER WITH THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
GFS HAS BEEN SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH FARTHER WEST OVER THE COUPLE
MODEL RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHIFT TROUGH FASTER AND FARTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.
WILL LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY FOR MON AND LOWER
POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR MON NIGHT.
ESSENTIALLY LITTLE OR NO CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
DENSE FOG AFFECTING AREAS FROM MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS. IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING. FARTHER WEST VFR CIGS SPREADING EAST. AT THIS POINT FEEL
ANY RASN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028>030-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR NDZ008-016-027.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004-
007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR MNZ023-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR MNZ002-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013>015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR MNZ006-009-016-017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS TRACKING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE
BACK EDGE HAS CLEARED THIS AREA. VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA RADARS
MOST LIKELY HITTING ON MID LEVEL CLOUDS. STRONGER RETURNS JUST
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. 09Z
HRRR AND 10Z RUC INDICATE THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED AREA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY WHEN
BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE UPDATE
DEALT MAINLY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING AND DROPPING POPS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER
THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SNOW AMOUNTS...AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AROUND IDAHO/MONTANA/ALBERTA.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE STATE. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW/FRONT SHOULD BE SITUATED NEAR
MINOT/BISMARCK/DEVILS LAKE/JAMESTOWN AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES AROUND 200 J/KG ARE FORECAST BY THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS. THUS
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DAY 1 SPC GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK TODAY IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT
OF YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...COLD AIR THAT WILL ORIGINATE ALONG
THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE. RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH AROUND 6-HR 14MB
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE...IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES OVER THE STATE FRIDAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW
SHOULD MAINLY BE OF THE "WET SNOW" TYPE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON - WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND HIGHER ACCUMULATING SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM
RENVILLE/WARD/MCLEAN COUNTIES AND EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
- COORDINATED WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE AND THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES EAST TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. PATCHY TO MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ANTICIPATED
NORTHWEST WINDS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...WITH A
WINDY...DAMP...AND COLDER DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO
MORE WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF
SPRING. AFTER A BOUT OF SNOW AND WIND IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A
PIECE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A 1036-1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PROGGED OVER CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION ON SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WE COULD SEE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND COLD.
A CLIPPER SLIDING DOWN A BUILDING WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON WINDS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT WINDS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD AIR WILL REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. THEN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AFT 18Z AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD THROUGH 02Z-06Z...WITH A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. -SHRA LIKELY AFT
18Z. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT LOW PROBABILITY PRECLUDES INCLUSION IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. AFT 02Z--06Z RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
UPDATE MAINLY FOR MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES...LOWERING MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES
HAD DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 20S. FARTHER WEST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN...TEMPERATURES WERE A
BIT MILDER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATE EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO
DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. EVENING HYDRO
UPDATES INCLUDED CONTINUING FLOOD WARNINGS AT TOWNER AND
BANTRY...AND CANCELLING THE FLOOD WARNING ON THE MISSOURI AT
WILLISTON. THE RIVER DROPPED RAPIDLY TODAY AND IS NOW BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AS FORECAST BY THE RAP/HR HRRR AND 4 KM WRF EARLIER TODAY...SHALLOW
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ALONG...NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. SNOW WAS OBSERVED UNDER ONE
OF THESE SHOWERS AT A TEMPERATURES OF 44 DEGREES AT KBIS. GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION....BUMPED UP THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE THRESHOLD TO ALL RAIN ABOVE 45 F...ALL SNOW
BELOW 38 F AND A MIX IN BETWEEN FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET.
FOR THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS AN OCCLUDING WARM FRONT
PROPAGATES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ML CAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS...ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE DAY 2
SPC GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW. TRENDS CONTINUE WITH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAINLY
COVERING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AS THE TARGET AREA FOR THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...AROUND ONE TO
POSSIBLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW/PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW..LESS THAN ONE INCH...IS FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A POTENT SURFACE/UPPER AIR LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO MINNESOTA FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST
OMEGA/VERTICAL MOTION IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HENCE THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PER NAM 850MB ISOTHERM PACKING
AND 6-7MB 3HR PRESSURE RISES WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH PRODUCING
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLDER SATURDAY AND DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO
MID 20S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY.
COULD SEE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH
SOUTH FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SNOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING LATE THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE THURSDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA GROUPS AT KISN/KMOT/KJMS WHERE RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST...AND VCSH GROUPS AT KDIK/KBIS. ISOLATED THUNDER
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT LOW
PROBABILITY PRECLUDES INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...RK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED SO NOW THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP AND HOW DENSE. RAP AND NAM BOTH SHOW
SOME HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LOW VIS DEVELOPING TOWARDS
MORNING OVER THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SNOW
COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. ON THE OTHER HAND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE
SNOW PACK. CROOKSTON HAS ALREADY GONE DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE
BUT NO OTHER SITES ARE THAT LOW AND VALLEY CITY HAS GONE DOWN TO
THREE QUARTERS AND THEN BACK UP. WILL GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR
NOW AND WILL JUST INCREASE FOG COVERAGE TO AREAS BUT HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT AND SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS OR WINDS
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AND WEB CAMS AND
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS SHOW THAT THE TYPE HAS BEEN SNOW AS THERE HAS
BEEN SOME COOLING AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. BUMPED UP POPS FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO INCLUDE A MENTION FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...BUT AGREE THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. CONTINUED TO KEEP TEMPS ON TRACK AS WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT
LATER TONIGHT AS THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
MAIN CHALLENGES CONCERN PRECIP TIMING/LOCATION/AMOUNTS/PHASE
AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE. WILL USE A BLENDED 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH HAS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE GEM. THE
NAM SFC LOW TRACK/QPF PLACEMENT IS FARTHER NORTH AND WILL NOT
USE AT THIS TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...SPOTTY INSTABILITY
INDUCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE ALOFT
WILL DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 03 UTC. ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT COULD MAKE AREA ROADWAYS SLICK.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOVE FREEZING MELTING SNOW...THINK THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PROMOTE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE GRIDS FROM 06 TO 15
UTC ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WINTER STORM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GFS/ECMWF SFC LOW TRACK IS FROM NORTHERN MT AT 12 UTC THURSDAY TO
THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. BEST
PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE 850 HPA LOW TRACK AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...
BUT WILL EXTEND LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST CWA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NEAR SFC LAYER WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING...SO MOST
PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN. MAY EVEN BE A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ND. WILL NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 06
UTC AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. WITH PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCHES
AND STRONG MID- LEVEL FORCING...MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE 850 HPA LOW TRACK WHICH
MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THINK A
SOLID 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMONPLACE...BUT IF STRONG BANDING
DEVELOPS... THERE COULD BE A NARROW RIBBON THAT EXCEEDS 6 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...GFS/ECMWF 925 HPA
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS BY 18 UTC
FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE FALLING SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED BY THEN...BUT
DEPENDING ON ITS WETNESS THERE COULD BE CONSIDERABLE REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. GIVEN THE SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL AND STRONGER WINDS ON
FRIDAY...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM 18 UTC THURSDAY UNTIL 00 UTC SATURDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. SATURDAY
WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY...BUT DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNRIGHT COLD
FOR LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DEPICTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY OR TUESDAY LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SOME
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING. IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT IF ANY SITES
WILL GET DOWN TO LIFR...AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT
COULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
1-2SM AT ALL BUT KFAR AND AMEND AS NEEDED. ANY LOWER VIS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION. PRECIP
WILL BEGIN MOVING IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WILL JUST GO RAIN SNOW MIX FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TYPE AND HOW MUCH IT LOWERS VIS THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022-023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
624 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TAF SITES AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
AND MAY AFFECT KMLC AND KFSM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
BARTLESVILLE TO NEAR BRISTOW ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...GUSTING UP AROUND 15 TO TO 25 MPH...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO NEAR 30 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. CURRENTLY...A CU FIELD HAD
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITHIN AN
AREA OF A WEAKENING CAP. LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
INDICATE PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE
MENTIONED LOCATIONS AND PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEER AND MODERATE LAPSE RATES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD ALLOW FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPS TO POTENTIALLY BECOME STRONG WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL BEING POSSIBLE. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING LOOK TO BE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE CWA.
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS..WHILE MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY RETURN MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WITH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPS WARM BACK UP NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ONCE AGAIN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT EXITS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
731 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN WI SW THROUGH
CENTRAL MO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE
TOWARD SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDINESS IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOWARD 12Z BUT THE LATEST MODELS ARE RATHER STINGY WITH THE QPF
RETURN. LATEST HRRR AGREES WITH THE MODEL ASSESSMENT AND KEEP THE
QPF RETURN TO OUR SW AND NE...WITH MIDDLE TN IN THE DRY AREA.
CURRENT FCST IS FOR ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE. LATEST ISC GRIDS
CONTINUE TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THUS...WILL KEEP THE
RAIN CHANCES GOING BUT THEY WILL REMAIN AT 20 PERCENT.
OTW...CLOUDINESS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG WITH A WARMER SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW. THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON TO ALTER THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE
LOW TEMP FCST.
ALL IN ALL...NO CHANGES TO THE FCST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING EAST OF MID
TN...ALLOWING WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE PLEASANT 60S. THERE WAS SUNSHINE...BUT
HIGH CLOUDS WERE INCREASING AHEAD OF SOME SYSTEMS THAT WILL
INTRODUCE BIG CHANGES TO OUR WX THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE FIRST SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WEST HALF. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH MID TN SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. THE COLD AIR WITH THIS
FRONT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...BUT STILL MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS
TN AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...MAKING SUNDAY PM RATHER
BLUSTERY.
THE TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS. THE COLD HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MIDWEEK WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
BE THE COLDEST PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS MID
TN.
MODELS SHOW A QUICK REBOUND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOUT
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS SHOW A RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPING
WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF MARCH AND
START OF APRIL.
13
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. Light wind overnight will pick up out of the south tomorrow
as leeside trough deepens.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Current visible satellite imagery shows some high clouds over
southwest and southern portions of the CWA. Surface observations
still continue to show some of the lingering dust at Presidio
associated with a cold front that moved into the area yesterday
evening and overnight.
With surface high pressure having built into the area behind the
cold front...the area is currently experiencing north to northeast
prevailing surface flow. The HRRR and other models suggest that
this surface high pressure ridge will begin to slide east later this
afternoon. This should result in surface winds transitioning to
east to southeast across a good portion of the area by tonight.
With the ridge over the area for a good portion of the day
today...high temperatures will likely remain slightly cooler than
normal.
With zonal upper flow expected on Thursday and Friday... associated
surface trough development is expected on the lee side of the
Rockies. This will allow for south to southwest surface flow on
Thursday and downslope west winds Friday. The end result of these
dry warm winds will be a notable warming trend through Friday. 850
mb temperatures on the NAM support temperatures in the mid 80s on
Friday for most of the Permian Basin...with temperatures potentially
in the lower 90s for portions of the Trans Pecos Region. GFS
temperatures are progged to be slightly cooler than the NAM. For
now...will trend towards our current forecast...a hint cooler than
the latest NAM and ECMWF guidance.
A cold front will make its way into the area late Friday and
overnight early Saturday. The front will continue to build into the
area into Sunday...with last night`s European model run and this
mornings GFS being in decent agreement with regards to potential
rain chances over the southeast portions of our CWA on Sunday.
These rain chances are currently indicated in our current forecast
package and will be maintained.
FIRE WEATHER...
West winds on Friday will help develop a dryline over the eastern
Permian Basin during the late morning. This dryline will continue
to slide east of the area during the afternoon. Afternoon relative
humidity values of 7 to 11 percent are expected across much of our
area west of that dryline. 20 foot winds speeds could reach
critical thresholds for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the
Marfa Plateau. I would expect later shifts to be issuing a Fire
Weather Watch and eventually Red Flag warnings for these locations
if current trends persist. There is still some uncertainly on how
strong winds will be across the adjacent plains on Friday. The NAM
guidance is indicating slightly stronger winds than the GFS. At
this point it is a difficult determination as to which model is more
reasonable. If the NAM is correct...we could see critical fire
weather conditions over portions of Eddy and Lea County as well.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
440 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS MORNING. ALL MODELS SHOW
RAIN BREAKING OUT BY 12Z OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
AND THEN DECREASING AFTER 18Z AS IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
MID CLOUDS NOW EXPANDING OVER CENTRAL FL AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MODELS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS MID LEVELS COOL WITH IMPULSE. HRRR MODEL
HAS MUCAPE OF 500+ J/KG SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S INLAND.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SE GA SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING SOUTH TO
EXTREME NORTHERN FL SUNDAY EVENING...AND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS AREA
WIDE BY SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING. WITH A DEEP TAP OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE LACKING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AFTN INTO EVENING FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL
APPROACH SUNDAY AFTN...WITH AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT ON HANDLING WAVES RIDING NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING THE FURTHEST
NORTH AND RICHEST IN MOISTURE...WITH THE NAM NEARLY PRECIP FREE. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF BUT MORE MOIST THAN THE
VERY DRY NAM. WILL USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND...WITH SOME PRECIP WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTN...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR MOST OF
NE FL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL NOT DRY OUT SE GA
TOTALLY...BUT ALL MODELS POINT TO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE THERE...THUS WILL USE MID END CHANCE POPS. THE KICKER
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY PUSHING THE
PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN IS IN STORE MONDAY/TUESDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY MAINLY IN THE 60S. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK AS THE
FLOW TURNS AROUND TO THE S/SE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MAKE
AN APPROACH FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY WELL TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY.
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY BR WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT VQQ/GNV 10-12Z...WITH LOCAL MVFR NEAR SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. WILL USE VCSH WITH PREVAILING LOW END VFR CIGS FOR THE
SHOWERS FOR JAX/CRG/VQQ/SSI FROM 12-18Z. WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE TO 35 KT...WILL USE LLWS FOR ALL BUT SSI THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN SE WINDS TODAY AT
10-15 KNOTS. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE 2 NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE... WITH AN EASTERLY SWELL PERSISTING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON DUE TO UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
BENIGN WIND CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH SCA LIKELY MONDAY. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER...WITH HIGH END SCA LIKELY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO LINGERING LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELLS. LOW RISK EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 81 53 77 48 / 20 10 40 40
SSI 71 57 73 51 / 40 10 40 40
JAX 78 56 80 54 / 30 10 40 40
SGJ 76 58 75 57 / 40 10 30 30
GNV 79 56 78 56 / 20 10 40 40
OCF 81 55 81 58 / 10 10 40 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ALLEN/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...A HIGH HAZARD OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE COAST...
...ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS...
DEEP SLY COMPONENT FLOW HAS INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24H
AND SHOWERS CONFINED EARLIER TO THE MARINE AREA HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP OVER LAND DESPITE THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM ATTM. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 ARE ASCD WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ALOFT ASCD WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER DISTURBANCE. RUC INITIALIZED TEMPS @H5 ARE AROUND 12.5-13C
EARLY THIS AM.
THE FORECAST WL BEGIN WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR ALL AREAS
AS THE APCHG UPPER WAVE WL ACT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT.
SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH THE LINGERING COOL POCKET
ALOFT WL FORCE ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED AFTN
STORMS. GIVEN WLY STEERING LEVEL WINDS AND A POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
CONVERGENCE IN THE LL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW (PSEUDO SEABREEZE
TENDENCY) HAVE EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE NORTH ALONG ALL THE
COASTAL COS DURING THE AFTN. A EAST COAST BREEZE LOOKS TO BE BEST
DEFINED HOWEVER WHERE SLIGHTLY LOWER COUNTERING WLYS EXIST
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. THE MAIN CONV HAZARD WL BE
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND SFC WIND GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH.
THIS EVENING...PASSING UPPER WAVE WL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A
LINGERING CHC OF PCPN IN THE EVENING WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE ATLC WATERS FROM THE COAST IN THE EVENING.
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S WITH LINGERING SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND LIGHTENING WINDS.
SUNDAY...SUNDAY WILL BE THE DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS WEAK FRONT
FROM SAT EXITS THE STATE AND LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF ANOTHER FRONT DROPPING THROUGH GA. MODELS SHOW WHAT REMAINING
MOISTURE THAT IS LEFT FROM SAT`S FRONT BEING PUSHED EAST WITH MID
LEVEL DRYING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN SECTIONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WITH SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS LINGERING...BUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO MAY POP UP RIGHT ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND
80 ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...LOW 80S ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE
COST...TO MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.
MON-TUES...SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO FLORIDA LATE SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE
MORNING. BRIEF PUSH OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
DURING THE DAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
OVERALL MONDAY WILL BE A CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...FIRST
PUSHING INLAND ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST WITH THE NE WIND SHIFT AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MON IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 70S ALONG
THE VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD COAST AND A FEW LOW 80S AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
BEST RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 60 PERCENT) WILL BE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM AN
EDDY SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH FURTHER NORTH AS WELL AS THE
JET. THE DEVELOPING LOW QUICKLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE DRIVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH THE EAST COAST. THE GFS STILL REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF...BUT ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL BE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE AREA
BY LATE EVENING.
HIGH TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WED-FRI...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW FILTERS IN BEHIND FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS
A LARGE HIGH MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. AN PERIOD OF BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST BY THURS NIGHT/FRI AT ANOTHER TROUGH/WEAK LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE PENINSULA.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEEM RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE COOLEST
NIGHT WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH SOME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S ACROSS
NRN INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH OFF INTO THE ATLC BY
THU WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR WITH SOME MORNING INTERSPERSED -SHRA MLNY ALG AND N
OF A LINE FM ISM-COF AND LCL MVFR CONDS ASCD WITH CIG AND LIGHT
SHRA. SHRA INCREASING IN CVG AFT 16Z WITH ISOLD TS MNLY AT THE
COASTAL SITES AND BRIEFLY IFR CIGS IN RAIN AFFECTED AREAS FM 17Z-
23Z. ISOLD TS PSBL THROUGH AROUND 02-03Z ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRIMARY WV COMPONENT CONTINUES TO BE LONG PERIOD SWELL
WITH 12-13 SEC PERIOD REGISTERING AT MARINE SITES. SEA HGHTS FOR
NAVIGATION WL SEE SOME ADDED WIND CHOP AROUND 1-2 FT OVER THE OPEN
WATERS WITH NO FETCH LIMITATION. HEADLINES WILL NOT BE
REQUIRED...HOWEVER MARINERS SHOULD WATCH THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR
ANY APCHG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
SUN...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS 10KTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY.
PASSAGE OF WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE EVENING WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
NORTH WINDS TO 15-20KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE BY DAYBREAK MON WITH
10-15KTS WEST-NORTHWEST FURTHER SOUTH. SEAS 2-3 FT.
MON-TUES...N-NE 15-20KTS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE NRN
WATERS WITH AROUND 15KTS FURTHER SOUTH. FLOW WILL VEER QUICKLY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG STALLED FRONT
AND QUICKLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE BY TUES MORNING.
GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING WEST WINDS 15-20KTS BY LATE
MORNING WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25KTS TUES EVENING THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON.
SEAS INCREASING TO 6-7FT OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH UP TO
8FT NORTH OF THE CAPE. POST-FRONTAL NW WIND SURGE WILL BRING SEAS UP
TO 7-9FT OFFSHORE BY WED...WITH 4-6FT CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY
AND SUN AFTERNOONS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALOFT WILL BRING
EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS SUN AFTERNOON AS TRANSPORT WINDS PICK UP TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS PREFRONTAL
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL FL FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICALLY LOW RH
AND BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 81 60 81 63 / 30 20 20 20
MCO 84 61 85 65 / 20 10 10 20
MLB 82 63 83 64 / 30 20 10 10
VRB 81 62 84 64 / 30 20 10 10
LEE 83 60 84 63 / 20 10 20 20
SFB 83 60 84 65 / 30 10 20 20
ORL 83 63 84 65 / 20 10 10 20
FPR 82 61 84 65 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....MOSES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
209 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS MORNING. ALL MODELS SHOW
RAIN BREAKING OUT BY 12Z OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
AND THEN DECREASING AFTER 18Z AS IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
MID CLOUDS NOW EXPANDING OVER CENTRAL FL AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MODELS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS MID LEVELS COOL WITH IMPULSE. HRRR MODEL
HAS MUCAPE OF 500+ J/KG SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S INLAND.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SE GA SUNDAY MORNING...MOVING SOUTH TO
EXTREME NORTHERN FL SUNDAY EVENING...AND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE FOR SOME SHOWERS AREA
WIDE BY SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING. WITH A DEEP TAP OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE LACKING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AFTN INTO EVENING FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL
APPROACH SUNDAY AFTN...WITH AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT ON HANDLING WAVES RIDING NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING THE FURTHEST
NORTH AND RICHEST IN MOISTURE...WITH THE NAM NEARLY PRECIP FREE. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF BUT MORE MOIST THAN THE
VERY DRY NAM. WILL USE A ECMWF/GFS BLEND...WITH SOME PRECIP WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTN...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR MOST OF
NE FL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL NOT DRY OUT SE GA
TOTALLY...BUT ALL MODELS POINT TO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE THERE...THUS WILL USE MID END CHANCE POPS. THE KICKER
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY PUSHING THE
PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN IS IN STORE MONDAY/TUESDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY MAINLY IN THE 60S. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK AS THE
FLOW TURNS AROUND TO THE S/SE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MAKE
AN APPROACH FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY WELL TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY.
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY BR WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT VQQ/GNV 10-12Z...WITH LOCAL MVFR NEAR SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. WILL USE VCSH WITH PREVAILING LOW END VFR CIGS FOR THE
SHOWERS FOR JAX/CRG/VQQ/SSI FROM 12-18Z.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN SE WINDS TODAY AT
10-15 KNOTS. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE 2 NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE... WITH AN EASTERLY SWELL PERSISTING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON DUE TO UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
BENIGN WIND CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH SCA LIKELY MONDAY. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER...WITH HIGH END SCA LIKELY LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO LINGERING LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELLS. LOW RISK EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 81 53 77 48 / 20 10 40 40
SSI 71 57 73 51 / 40 10 40 40
JAX 78 56 80 54 / 30 10 40 40
SGJ 76 58 75 57 / 40 10 30 30
GNV 79 56 78 56 / 20 10 40 40
OCF 81 55 81 58 / 10 10 40 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ALLEN/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
350 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN TACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TODAY AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY PHASES OVER THE
LOWER AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA REMAINING SOLIDLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID-
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. A QUICK SHORT OF COASTAL
ISENTROPIC ASSENT ALONG THE 295-300K ISO-SURFACES COUPLED WITH
FORCED UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT JET
STREAK WILL BRING A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE H3R/NAM/RAP REFLECTIVITY/QPF
PROGNOSTICATIONS TO CONSTRUCT HOURLY POPS...WHICH WILL RANGE FROM
10-20 PERCENT INLAND TO THE 30-40 PERCENT AT THE COAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND VARIOUS INSTABILITY PLOTS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS...ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF
LINGERING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A VERY SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER COULD BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THE TSTM FORECAST WILL BE LIMITED TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. IT
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY...KEEPING WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
THE RISK FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY END AND MOVE OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC JUST BEFORE SUNSET AS THE BURST OF ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC
ASSENT MOVES OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW VEERING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A DRY NIGHT TO
PREVAIL WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER
50S AT THE COAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIN ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
THICKENING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A 130 KT JET STREAK
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING
THE NECESSARY FORCING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE WAVE AND EMBEDDED
COLD FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DEEP MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE COASTLINE
BY THE AFTERNOON. HESITANT TO INDICATE RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN
ABOUT 40 PERCENT...AS A WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW GENERALLY
PREVAILS DURING FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN 1.25 INCHES. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WHEN COMBINED WITH A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT PULLS OFFSHORE. MODERATE NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE
COAST WILL BE THE COMBINED RESULT OF COOLER NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
INSULATING CLOUD COVER AND SOMEWHAT COUPLED FLOW.
MONDAY...TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND PUSH A WEDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST REGION BY
MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN SEEN
OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND...SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES. SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY
NIGHT...RAPIDLY SPINNING UP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION WITHIN
INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTLINE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60 OR EVEN
70 PERCENT RANGE. BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS COASTAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW SYSTEM.
TUESDAY...RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE INTENSIFYING COASTAL
LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY AND COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD IN ITS WAKE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
HEIGHTS FALLING BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING THE EAST COAST
AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY PEAK IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY. A RATHER COLD AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
STEADILY MODERATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RETURNING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE
REGION LINGERING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT
KCHS...MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MAKE A MENTION FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. HIGHER CHANCES
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN IN TACT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS 1-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...3-4 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS.
TONIGHT...EVEN LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A VERY BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL VEER WEST AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA WITH WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-4 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST TUESDAY AND IS
RAPIDLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG INLAND HIGH PRESSURE.
SEA FOG...INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVERSPREADING THE VERY CHILLY
SHELF WATERS COULD SUPPORT THE FORMATION SEA FOG LATER TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS ALWAYS LOW WITH THE ONSET OF THESE
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF POTENTIAL SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...OUTPUT FROM BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF SEA FOG FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SCENARIO CERTAINLY LOOKS PLAUSIBLE
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR SO WILL INTRODUCE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
IN THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE WITH
VSBYS 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. LATER SHIFTS MAY VERY WELL NEED TO
HIT THE SEA FOG FORECAST HARDER AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
239 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...THE SPRING-LIKE DAY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY EVEN SEE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-39. THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL SEE A DRY WEEKEND...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING BOTH NW INDIANA AND FAR NE ILLINOIS TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY...
A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER NW MINNESOTA WITH A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM
FRONT HAS ADVANCED FROM MOLINE IL THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND HAVE
NOTICED WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO COME AROUND TO SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. STILL EXPECTING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S DOWNTOWN AND
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY ONCE THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH. FAR NE
IL...LAKE COUNTY...WILL HOLD ON TO SE WINDS THE LONGEST AND WILL
MOST LIKELY MISS OUT ON 50S TODAY. THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN IS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY BECAUSE
THE LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT AND COLD
AIR BEGINS TO FLOOD INTO THE REGION.
RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ALONG THE WARM FRONT RIGHT
NOW NORTH OF BURLINGTON IOWA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THOSE SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST...BUT NOT BUYING INTO THAT THEORY AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN LARGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD
HAVE AMPLE FORCING FROM THE FRONT...LOW...AND IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. AS SUCH HAVE A BAND OF LOW END CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP OUT OF ANY GIVEN
SHOWER...EXCEPT FOR OVER NW INDIANA. FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AND MAY
SEE UPWARDS OF 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN. STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT...BUT MORE THAN THE REST OF THE CWA.
TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL IL AND TO AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS NW INDIANA TONIGHT. TEMPS REBOUND A LITTLE SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S DOWN SOUTH. EXPECTING THE
MORNING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING AS FLOW
TURNS OFF OF THE LAKE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE
PLAINS...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW SITUATION. RIGHT
NOW NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY THE SET UP AS DELTA TS ARE MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT THE MODELED WIND FIELDS SHOW GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER THE
LAKE. THE LOCAL ARW IS ALREADY INDICATING A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
THE POPS A BIT MORE BROAD AT THIS POINT WITH MAX POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE. HAVE THE BAND STARTING OVER NW INDIANA...SHIFTING EAST TO
NEAR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN IL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN
SHIFTING BACK ACROSS NW INDIANA AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN IF THE SNOW WILL HAPPEN AND
WHERE IT WILL FALL...KEPT PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT. HAVE LESS THAN HALF
INCH JUST ALONG THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA FOR NOW.
FOR TEMPS...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID
20S. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND ROTATES EAST
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE CWA TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS BRIEF RIDGING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND/OR
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
BE TALKING ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK
DECENT. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS SOUNDINGS...THE ONLY ISSUE I
SEE IS A SHRINKING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE EVENT GOES ON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK. THIS OF COURSE WILL PLAY A
ROLL IN PRECIP TYPES...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE PRECIP
OVER THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
RISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRECIP TYPES LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOWS PATH AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE TEMPS. FOR NOW USED THE
FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS TO CREATE THE WEATHER GRIDS.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KT AT TIMES INTO PRE-DAWN SAT.
* SCT-BKN HIGH MVFR/VFR STRATOCU 3000-3500 FT.
* NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KT AT TIMES SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
BECOMING NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO OUR WEST. NORTHWEST GRADIENT
WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD ADVECTION HELPS
TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL-MIXED OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL
HOLD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING FROM 310-320 DEG OVERNIGHT TO 330-350 DEG ON SATURDAY.
HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE WINDS ALONG WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
MAINLY AFFECTING GYY IN VARIOUS GUIDANCE RUNS. STILL...A SHIFT TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ORD/MDW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATOCU EXISTS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT...THOUGH GRADUAL
ADVECTION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING
TROUGH WAS HELPING TO ERODE SOME HOLES IN THE BKN/OVC CIGS. EXPECT
BKN CIGS WILL END UP PREVAILING...THOUGH WITH BASES GENERALLY IN
THE 3000-3500 FT RANGE ACROSS THE CHICAGO TERMINALS. ANY HOLES
THAT DEVELOP MAY FILL BACK IN DURING THE DAY. GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT GYY LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING...AS WINDS
SHIFT MORE DIRECTLY OFF OF THE LAKE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
INCREASES AT GYY BEYOND THE 06Z END OF THE TAF...AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN ALOFT.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS MAINLY 3000 FT OR
ABOVE.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN AND SUB VFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE -RA AND SUB VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
238 AM CDT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KT WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND A
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. COLD
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES OVER THE LAKE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG MIXING IN THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT THIS MORNING. SLIGHT EASING OF THE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW GUSTS TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...
AND EVENTUALLY TO AROUND 15 KT BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE PLAINS HIGH
SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FURTHER AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
A RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL BRING ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RENEWED
SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY FOLLOWS TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1244 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...THE SPRING-LIKE DAY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY EVEN SEE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-39. THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL SEE A DRY WEEKEND...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING BOTH NW INDIANA AND FAR NE ILLINOIS TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY...
A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER NW MINNESOTA WITH A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM
FRONT HAS ADVANCED FROM MOLINE IL THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND HAVE
NOTICED WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO COME AROUND TO SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. STILL EXPECTING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S DOWNTOWN AND
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY ONCE THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH. FAR NE
IL...LAKE COUNTY...WILL HOLD ON TO SE WINDS THE LONGEST AND WILL
MOST LIKELY MISS OUT ON 50S TODAY. THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN IS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY BECAUSE
THE LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT AND COLD
AIR BEGINS TO FLOOD INTO THE REGION.
RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ALONG THE WARM FRONT RIGHT
NOW NORTH OF BURLINGTON IOWA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THOSE SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST...BUT NOT BUYING INTO THAT THEORY AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN LARGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD
HAVE AMPLE FORCING FROM THE FRONT...LOW...AND IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. AS SUCH HAVE A BAND OF LOW END CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP OUT OF ANY GIVEN
SHOWER...EXCEPT FOR OVER NW INDIANA. FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AND MAY
SEE UPWARDS OF 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN. STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT...BUT MORE THAN THE REST OF THE CWA.
TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL IL AND TO AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS NW INDIANA TONIGHT. TEMPS REBOUND A LITTLE SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S DOWN SOUTH. EXPECTING THE
MORNING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING AS FLOW
TURNS OFF OF THE LAKE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE
PLAINS...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW SITUATION. RIGHT
NOW NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY THE SET UP AS DELTA TS ARE MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT THE MODELED WIND FIELDS SHOW GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER THE
LAKE. THE LOCAL ARW IS ALREADY INDICATING A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
THE POPS A BIT MORE BROAD AT THIS POINT WITH MAX POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE. HAVE THE BAND STARTING OVER NW INDIANA...SHIFTING EAST TO
NEAR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN IL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN
SHIFTING BACK ACROSS NW INDIANA AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN IF THE SNOW WILL HAPPEN AND
WHERE IT WILL FALL...KEPT PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT. HAVE LESS THAN HALF
INCH JUST ALONG THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA FOR NOW.
FOR TEMPS...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID
20S. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND ROTATES EAST
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE CWA TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS BRIEF RIDGING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND/OR
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
BE TALKING ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK
DECENT. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS SOUNDINGS...THE ONLY ISSUE I
SEE IS A SHRINKING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE EVENT GOES ON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK. THIS OF COURSE WILL PLAY A
ROLL IN PRECIP TYPES...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE PRECIP
OVER THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
RISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRECIP TYPES LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOWS PATH AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE TEMPS. FOR NOW USED THE
FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS TO CREATE THE WEATHER GRIDS.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KT AT TIMES INTO PRE-DAWN SAT.
* SCT-BKN HIGH MVFR/VFR STRATOCU 3000-3500 FT.
* NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KT AT TIMES SATURDAY...POSSIBLY
BECOMING NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO OUR WEST. NORTHWEST GRADIENT
WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD ADVECTION HELPS
TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL-MIXED OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL
HOLD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING FROM 310-320 DEG OVERNIGHT TO 330-350 DEG ON SATURDAY.
HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE WINDS ALONG WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN MAY SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
MAINLY AFFECTING GYY IN VARIOUS GUIDANCE RUNS. STILL...A SHIFT TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ORD/MDW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATOCU EXISTS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT...THOUGH GRADUAL
ADVECTION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING
TROUGH WAS HELPING TO ERODE SOME HOLES IN THE BKN/OVC CIGS. EXPECT
BKN CIGS WILL END UP PREVAILING...THOUGH WITH BASES GENERALLY IN
THE 3000-3500 FT RANGE ACROSS THE CHICAGO TERMINALS. ANY HOLES
THAT DEVELOP MAY FILL BACK IN DURING THE DAY. GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT GYY LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING...AS WINDS
SHIFT MORE DIRECTLY OFF OF THE LAKE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
INCREASES AT GYY BEYOND THE 06Z END OF THE TAF...AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN ALOFT.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS MAINLY 3000 FT OR
ABOVE.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN AND SUB VFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE -RA AND SUB VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
348 PM CDT
VARYING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES
PUSH OVER THE LAKE. SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST...EXPECT
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND WINDS OF
20-25 KT IN THE NEARSHORE TONIGHT. WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE MARKED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE COAST...
...ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS...
MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM THE FL PENINSULA SHOW INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS OCCURRED AND MOISTENED THE LOW LEVELS IN THE LAST 12-24
HOURS. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND THIS WILL INDUCE WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR JAX LATE IN THE
DAY. SOUTH BREEZE THIS MORNING WILL TURN SW THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE A SE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BUT REMAIN
CLOSE TO THE COAST.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST FROM BREVARD TO MARTIN COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDES
SOME LIFT. HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS MAX
TEMPS REACH THE MID 80S.
500MB TEMPS ARE COLD...-12C AT CAPE AND -13C AT TBW...WARMING TO
-10C AT MIA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH IS HIGHER TO THE SOUTH SO THE
COLDEST TEMPS ARE NOT OVERLAID WITH THE BEST LL MOISTURE.
STILL...ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF_ARW
MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE IN THE ATLC
THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON MORNING REPORTS FROM BEACH PATROLS...WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL BE COASTAL
TERMINALS FROM TIX SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS.
CURRENT THINKING IS ALL ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY 00Z WITH A
LIGHT WEST WIND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
PRIMARY WAVE COMPONENT CONTINUES TO BE LONG PERIOD (11-12 SEC) E/NE
SWELL AROUND 3 FT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADD A CHOPPY (4-5 SEC) WIND
WAVE. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE...REACHING
15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR JAX. WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A FEW
STORMS MAY PUSH OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE CAPE THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE THE
CONVECTION OVER THE ATLC THIS MORNING WILL LIFT N/NE AND STAY OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN W/NW TONIGHT AND DECREASE AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 81 60 81 63 / 30 20 20 20
MCO 84 61 85 65 / 20 10 10 20
MLB 82 63 83 64 / 30 20 10 10
VRB 81 62 84 64 / 30 20 10 10
LEE 83 60 84 63 / 20 10 20 20
SFB 83 60 84 65 / 30 10 20 20
ORL 83 63 84 65 / 20 10 10 20
FPR 82 61 84 65 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
KELLY/SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1031 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET FOR TODAY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH
ALONG/NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST SO WE INITIALIZED WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THERE /UP TO 40 PERCENT/. EXPECT THIS GENERAL
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS A BATCH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES UP THE COAST AND LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDER. DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WE EXPECT A
RATHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...POSSIBLY REACHING 80 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCALES...MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF MORE LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. IT
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY...KEEPING WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
THE RISK FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY END AND MOVE OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC JUST BEFORE SUNSET AS THE BURST OF ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC
ASSENT MOVES OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW VEERING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A DRY NIGHT TO
PREVAIL WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER
50S AT THE COAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIN ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
THICKENING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A 130 KT JET STREAK
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING
THE NECESSARY FORCING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE WAVE AND EMBEDDED
COLD FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DEEP MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE COASTLINE
BY THE AFTERNOON. HESITANT TO INDICATE RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN
ABOUT 40 PERCENT...AS A WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW GENERALLY
PREVAILS DURING FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN 1.25 INCHES. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WHEN COMBINED WITH A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT PULLS OFFSHORE. MODERATE NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE
COAST WILL BE THE COMBINED RESULT OF COOLER NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
INSULATING CLOUD COVER AND SOMEWHAT COUPLED FLOW.
MONDAY...TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND PUSH A WEDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST REGION BY
MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN SEEN
OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND...SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES. SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY
NIGHT...RAPIDLY SPINNING UP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION WITHIN
INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTLINE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60 OR EVEN
70 PERCENT RANGE. BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS COASTAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW SYSTEM.
TUESDAY...RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE INTENSIFYING COASTAL
LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY AND COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD IN ITS WAKE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
HEIGHTS FALLING BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING THE EAST COAST
AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY PEAK IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY. A RATHER COLD AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
STEADILY MODERATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RETURNING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE
REGION LINGERING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AT KSAV
AND THIS AFTERNOON AT KCHS AS AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS
UP THE COAST. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS WE MAY NEED TO AMEND FOR SOME MVFR CIGS AT KSAV .
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. HIGHER CHANCES
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN IN TACT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS 1-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...3-4 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS.
TONIGHT...EVEN LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A VERY BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL VEER WEST AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA WITH WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-4 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST TUESDAY AND IS
RAPIDLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG INLAND HIGH PRESSURE.
SEA FOG...INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVERSPREADING THE VERY CHILLY
SHELF WATERS COULD SUPPORT THE FORMATION SEA FOG LATER TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS ALWAYS LOW WITH THE ONSET OF THESE
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF POTENTIAL SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...OUTPUT FROM BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF SEA FOG FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SCENARIO CERTAINLY LOOKS PLAUSIBLE
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR SO WILL INTRODUCE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
IN THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE WITH
VSBYS 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. LATER SHIFTS MAY VERY WELL NEED TO
HIT THE SEA FOG FORECAST HARDER AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
657 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE SUNRISE UPDATE. KJAX RADAR
SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST AS EXPECTED. H3R IS DOING A FINE JOB WITH ITS DEPICTION AND
MATCHES THE GOING FORECAST WELL.
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN TACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TODAY AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY PHASES OVER THE
LOWER AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA REMAINING SOLIDLY ENTRENCHED IN THE
WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID-
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. A QUICK SHORT OF COASTAL
ISENTROPIC ASSENT ALONG THE 295-300K ISO-SURFACES COUPLED WITH
FORCED UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT JET
STREAK WILL BRING A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE H3R/NAM/RAP REFLECTIVITY/QPF
PROGNOSTICATIONS TO CONSTRUCT HOURLY POPS...WHICH WILL RANGE FROM
10-20 PERCENT INLAND TO THE 30-40 PERCENT AT THE COAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND VARIOUS INSTABILITY PLOTS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS...ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF
LINGERING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A VERY SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER COULD BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THE TSTM FORECAST WILL BE LIMITED TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. IT
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY...KEEPING WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
THE RISK FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY END AND MOVE OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC JUST BEFORE SUNSET AS THE BURST OF ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC
ASSENT MOVES OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW VEERING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A DRY NIGHT TO
PREVAIL WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER
50S AT THE COAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIN ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
THICKENING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A 130 KT JET STREAK
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING
THE NECESSARY FORCING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE WAVE AND EMBEDDED
COLD FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DEEP MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE COASTLINE
BY THE AFTERNOON. HESITANT TO INDICATE RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN
ABOUT 40 PERCENT...AS A WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW GENERALLY
PREVAILS DURING FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN 1.25 INCHES. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WHEN COMBINED WITH A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT PULLS OFFSHORE. MODERATE NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE
COAST WILL BE THE COMBINED RESULT OF COOLER NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
INSULATING CLOUD COVER AND SOMEWHAT COUPLED FLOW.
MONDAY...TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND PUSH A WEDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST REGION BY
MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN SEEN
OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND...SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES. SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY
NIGHT...RAPIDLY SPINNING UP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION WITHIN
INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTLINE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60 OR EVEN
70 PERCENT RANGE. BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS COASTAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW SYSTEM.
TUESDAY...RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE INTENSIFYING COASTAL
LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY AND COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD IN ITS WAKE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
HEIGHTS FALLING BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING THE EAST COAST
AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY PEAK IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY. A RATHER COLD AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
STEADILY MODERATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RETURNING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE
REGION LINGERING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND BRUSH THE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING.
ATTM IT APPEARS KCHS HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY DIRECT
IMPACTS...BUT EVEN NOW THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
BEST CHANCES EAST OF THAT TERMINAL. WILL SHOW A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MARGINAL MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 17-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVITY IN THE KCHS AREA WHILE KEEPING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OUT OF
KSAV FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. HIGHER CHANCES
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN IN TACT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS 1-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...3-4 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS.
TONIGHT...EVEN LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A VERY BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL VEER WEST AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA WITH WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-4 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST TUESDAY AND IS
RAPIDLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG INLAND HIGH PRESSURE.
SEA FOG...INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVERSPREADING THE VERY CHILLY
SHELF WATERS COULD SUPPORT THE FORMATION SEA FOG LATER TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS ALWAYS LOW WITH THE ONSET OF THESE
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF POTENTIAL SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...OUTPUT FROM BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF SEA FOG FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SCENARIO CERTAINLY LOOKS PLAUSIBLE
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR SO WILL INTRODUCE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
IN THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE WITH
VSBYS 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. LATER SHIFTS MAY VERY WELL NEED TO
HIT THE SEA FOG FORECAST HARDER AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
552 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE/AMOUNT OF SNOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURE ROLLERCOASTER INTO MONDAY...AND WINDS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED/COMPLICATED FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH TRANSITIONS INTO A BROAD TROUGHINESS
AND PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT FLOW. ONE OF MAIN CONCERN IS TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH STRONGEST PORTION OF THE TROUGH
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN CANADA. COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND MUCH COLDER AIR APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AT THIS TIME.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS APPEARED TO INITIALIZE FINE. AT MID
LEVELS...PER SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THE NAM WAS DOING
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY THE UKMET AND
ECMWF...WITH THE SREF THE WORST. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE ECWMF AND GFS ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD.
THE MODELS WERE A LITTLE WARM WITH THE GFS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE UKMET...NAM AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET LOOKS TO STAY NOT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON THE SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DETAILS OVER US. AS IT LOOKS NOW THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE NORTHERN JET LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA AT 18Z. THE TREND THE LAST TWO DAYS IS TOO KEEP THIS A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND BE A LITTLE SLOWER IN ARRIVING INTO OUR
AREA. MODELS BRING THIS RIGHT REAR QUADRANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THIS RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY MID
EVENING THIS JET IS EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME POSSIBLE WEAK JET
AROUND THROUGH 06Z.
ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH IT
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND MOVING ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON IS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AT
THE SAME SPEED THE JET DOES. NOW WHAT LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING ON
SATELLITE IS BEING SHOWN BY TONIGHTS MODEL OUTPUT. THIS INCOMING
TROUGH STARTING TO SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVING THROUGH PER
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THE SOUTHERN PORTION LOOKS TO BE GOING SOUTH AND
WEST OF MY AREA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING EVEN IN THE NEAR TERM ON HOW FAST AND HOW
FAR TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. A VERY SMALL AREA OF
SNOW HAS MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OF THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
PRELIMINARY WEAK SHORTWAVE. HRRR AND RUC CATCH THIS NICELY AND
DISSIPATE BY 12Z. AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING...AND UPPER JET GETS
CLOSER...MODELS START DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION GROWS IN COVERAGE AND SINKS SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING GREATEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATEST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENTY RESIDES ALONG WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS MAY BE CUTTING
OFF PRECIPITATION TOO SOON. A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/STRONG ZONE
OF NARROW FRONTOGENSIS DEVELOPS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND JET. MODEL SOUNDINGS...EVEN FURTHER NORTH BEHIND THE MAIN LIFT...
STAY SATURATED REALLY CLOSE TO THE DENDRITIC ZONE INTO THE EVENING.
SO DID NOT REALLY START DECREASING THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
PER ICE IN THE COLUMN AND VERY LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS...PHASE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW. HOWEVER...THE FAR SOUTH THAT SATURATES AND
COOLS LATER WILL STAY A MIXTURE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POSSIBLY 3
INCHES...MAINLY IN THE FAR WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS...WILL OCCUR
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET. DUE TO THE THICK
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT COOLED AS MUCH THIS MORNING AS
WHAT THE MODELS THOUGHT. AGAIN TENDED TO FOLLOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW. GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS WOULD INDICATE AT
LEAST BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN HALF.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH. MODELS ARE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY THE NAM. DID WARM
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
RECYCLED COOL AIR...CHOSE TO GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
DUE TO JET LIFT FROM JET SEGMENT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET BEHIND THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH A DECENT
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTOGENESIS AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES
NEAR ZERO WOULD DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SOMEKIND OF
PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE EVEN SHOWING A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
CAPE. MODELS EVEN BRING A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY. PROBLEM IS ALL
THE MODEL SHOWING A DRY AND UNSATURATED AIR MASS. BUT CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY...DECIDED TO JUST MENTION
FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION. THERE
LOOKS TO BE UNIDIRECTION FLOW THROUGH NEARLY 700 MB. IT LOOKS LIKE
WE COULD GET WINDY...POSSIBLY NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE WARM
DESPITE THE FRONTAL POSSIBLE PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PROGGED 850
MB TEMPERATURES.
ONLY THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING QPF FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MAIN LIFT IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER LOW
LEVELS. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THAT PERIOD. POSSIBLE IT
COULD JUST BE FLURRIES ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WILL HAVE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. THE ONLY ONE OF CONSEQUENCE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE RIDGE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 500MB JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS HAVE DRIED OUT THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DAY. THE COLD FRONT
WHICH MOVES IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE PUSHED BACK NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE AREA.
MODELS MOVE A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...BUT KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ALMOST 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION THE GUSTY WINDS NEAR 25 MPH COMBINED WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIP. CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS
SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIP. CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE. MODELS DISAGREE WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. PRECIP.
CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH DO NOT LOOK AS PROMISING AS YESTERDAY DUE TO
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE DRIER AIR TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BY THURSDAY EVENING THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATES BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH
AS ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THIS
SECOND TROUGH WILL ALLOW SOME SMALL PRECIP. CHANCES FOR THE
AREA.
FRIDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES THE AREA PUSHING THE JET
STREAM AND MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS. AT KGLD...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR HEAR UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AS IT LOOKS NOW...ONCE THE SNOW ENDS...IFR
CEILINGS COULD OCCUR AFTER 06Z. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT KMCK...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
422 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE/AMOUNT OF SNOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURE ROLLERCOASTER INTO MONDAY...AND WINDS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED/COMPLICATED FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH TRANSITIONS INTO A BROAD TROUGHINESS
AND PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT FLOW. ONE OF MAIN CONCERN IS TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH STRONGEST PORTION OF THE TROUGH
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN CANADA. COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND MUCH COLDER AIR APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AT THIS TIME.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS APPEARED TO INITIALIZE FINE. AT MID
LEVELS...PER SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THE NAM WAS DOING
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY THE UKMET AND
ECMWF...WITH THE SREF THE WORST. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE ECWMF AND GFS ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD.
THE MODELS WERE A LITTLE WARM WITH THE GFS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE UKMET...NAM AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET LOOKS TO STAY NOT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON THE SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DETAILS OVER US. AS IT LOOKS NOW THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE NORTHERN JET LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA AT 18Z. THE TREND THE LAST TWO DAYS IS TOO KEEP THIS A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND BE A LITTLE SLOWER IN ARRIVING INTO OUR
AREA. MODELS BRING THIS RIGHT REAR QUADRANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THIS RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY MID
EVENING THIS JET IS EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME POSSIBLE WEAK JET
AROUND THROUGH 06Z.
ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH IT
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND MOVING ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON IS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AT
THE SAME SPEED THE JET DOES. NOW WHAT LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING ON
SATELLITE IS BEING SHOWN BY TONIGHTS MODEL OUTPUT. THIS INCOMING
TROUGH STARTING TO SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVING THROUGH PER
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THE SOUTHERN PORTION LOOKS TO BE GOING SOUTH AND
WEST OF MY AREA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING EVEN IN THE NEAR TERM ON HOW FAST AND HOW
FAR TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. A VERY SMALL AREA OF
SNOW HAS MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OF THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
PRELIMINARY WEAK SHORTWAVE. HRRR AND RUC CATCH THIS NICELY AND
DISSIPATE BY 12Z. AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING...AND UPPER JET GETS
CLOSER...MODELS START DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION GROWS IN COVERAGE AND SINKS SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING GREATEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATEST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENTY RESIDES ALONG WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS MAY BE CUTTING
OFF PRECIPITATION TOO SOON. A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/STRONG ZONE
OF NARROW FRONTOGENSIS DEVELOPS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND JET. MODEL SOUNDINGS...EVEN FURTHER NORTH BEHIND THE MAIN LIFT...
STAY SATURATED REALLY CLOSE TO THE DENDRITIC ZONE INTO THE EVENING.
SO DID NOT REALLY START DECREASING THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
PER ICE IN THE COLUMN AND VERY LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS...PHASE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW. HOWEVER...THE FAR SOUTH THAT SATURATES AND
COOLS LATER WILL STAY A MIXTURE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POSSIBLY 3
INCHES...MAINLY IN THE FAR WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS...WILL OCCUR
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET. DUE TO THE THICK
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT COOLED AS MUCH THIS MORNING AS
WHAT THE MODELS THOUGHT. AGAIN TENDED TO FOLLOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW. GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS WOULD INDICATE AT
LEAST BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN HALF.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH. MODELS ARE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY THE NAM. DID WARM
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
RECYCLED COOL AIR...CHOSE TO GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
DUE TO JET LIFT FROM JET SEGMENT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET BEHIND THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH A DECENT
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTOGENESIS AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES
NEAR ZERO WOULD DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SOMEKIND OF
PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE EVEN SHOWING A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
CAPE. MODELS EVEN BRING A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY. PROBLEM IS ALL
THE MODEL SHOWING A DRY AND UNSATURATED AIR MASS. BUT CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY...DECIDED TO JUST MENTION
FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION. THERE
LOOKS TO BE UNIDIRECTION FLOW THROUGH NEARLY 700 MB. IT LOOKS LIKE
WE COULD GET WINDY...POSSIBLY NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE WARM
DESPITE THE FRONTAL POSSIBLE PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PROGGED 850
MB TEMPERATURES.
ONLY THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING QPF FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MAIN LIFT IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER LOW
LEVELS. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THAT PERIOD. POSSIBLE IT
COULD JUST BE FLURRIES ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WILL HAVE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. THE ONLY ONE OF CONSEQUENCE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE RIDGE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 500MB JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS HAVE DRIED OUT THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DAY. THE COLD FRONT
WHICH MOVES IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE PUSHED BACK NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE AREA.
MODELS MOVE A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...BUT KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ALMOST 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION THE GUSTY WINDS NEAR 25 MPH COMBINED WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIP. CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS
SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIP. CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE. MODELS DISAGREE WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. PRECIP.
CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH DO NOT LOOK AS PROMISING AS YESTERDAY DUE TO
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE DRIER AIR TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BY THURSDAY EVENING THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATES BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH
AS ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THIS
SECOND TROUGH WILL ALLOW SOME SMALL PRECIP. CHANCES FOR THE
AREA.
FRIDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES THE AREA PUSHING THE JET
STREAM AND MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT FRI MAR 21 2014
LOW STRATUS IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. KMCK IS NOW REPORTING
OVERCAST SKIES WITH A CEILING OF 2500 FT. THIS STRATUS SHOULD
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO KGLD. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PROJECT KGLD ON THE STRATUS EDGE SO HAVE ASSIGNED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
LOWER CEILINGS EARLY MORNING WITH CEILINGS LIFTING SOME LATE
MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUES WITH
DRIER AIR AT SURFACE. OFF/ON LIGHT SNOW MAY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ONCE IT BEGINS AT KMCK. KGLD WILL BE ON THE EDGE SO DO NOT
MENTION SNOW UNTIL 23Z ONCE THE BETTER LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS PASSES
OVER. EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD AND SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY AT KGLD THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
215 PM MST SAT MAR 22 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PREVAIL
WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 140 PM 22 MARCH 2014/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AZ AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHEASTERN AZ
THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE CENTRAL CA COAST. SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL YIELD AN INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT
ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MID WEEK THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
A MORE ZONAL REGIME AND WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ADVERTISE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA...THERE ARE TIMING/POSITION
DIFFERENCES. GFS IS A BIT SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND
PULLS 0.6 INCH PWATS INTO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ECMWF SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TROUGH ABOUT 12-18HRS PRIOR
/WEDNESDAY MORNING/ BUT IS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER. INHERITED
FORECAST HAD CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST OF PHOENIX WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THIS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DESERTS WILL REMAIN DRY /EVEN IF THE MOIST GFS SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING/. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST. INSERTED PATCHY
BLOWING DUST INTO THE GRIDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
BLENDED CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO AROUND NORMAL BEHIND THE TROUGH /INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND
80/.
OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CIRRUS
RETURNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL KEEP WITH DIURNAL PATTERNS AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN AOB 12 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WITH
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING MOSTLY TO NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DRYING IN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DRIER AIR
SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE ON THE
GOOD SIDE UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN THEY WILL FALL INTO THE FAIR OR POOR
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DRIER WESTERN DESERTS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL DOWN DRAINAGE/UP VALLEY PATTERNS WHILE REMAINING LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. A BETTER ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO SEE A INCREASE AS WELL LEADING TO MORE ELEVATED DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES THAN SEEN PREVIOUSLY IN THE WEEK. WINDS MAY APPROACH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WHILE THRESHOLD MEETING HUMIDITIES
MAY NOT BE REALIZED. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE
LATE MARCH NORMALS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...DEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
140 PM MST SAT MAR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PREVAIL
WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AZ AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHEASTERN AZ
THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE CENTRAL CA COAST. SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL YIELD AN INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT
ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MID WEEK THE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
A MORE ZONAL REGIME AND WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ADVERTISE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA...THERE ARE TIMING/POSITION
DIFFERENCES. GFS IS A BIT SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND
PULLS 0.6 INCH PWATS INTO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ECMWF SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TROUGH ABOUT 12-18HRS PRIOR
/WEDNESDAY MORNING/ BUT IS ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER. INHERITED
FORECAST HAD CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST OF PHOENIX WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THIS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DESERTS WILL REMAIN DRY /EVEN IF THE MOIST GFS SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING/. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST. INSERTED PATCHY
BLOWING DUST INTO THE GRIDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.
BLENDED CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO AROUND NORMAL BEHIND THE TROUGH /INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND
80/.
OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A RETURN OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRY AND WARM SURFACE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH CIRRUS COVERAGE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING SCT-BKN IN NATURE
THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH
SPEEDS GNLY REMAINING AOB 12KTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WITH
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING MOSTLY TO NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DRYING IN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DRIER AIR
SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE ON THE
GOOD SIDE UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN THEY WILL FALL INTO THE FAIR OR POOR
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DRIER WESTERN DESERTS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL DOWN DRAINAGE/UP VALLEY PATTERNS WHILE REMAINING LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. A BETTER ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO SEE A INCREASE AS WELL LEADING TO MORE ELEVATED DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES THAN SEEN PREVIOUSLY IN THE WEEK. WINDS MAY APPROACH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WHILE THRESHOLD MEETING HUMIDITIES
MAY NOT BE REALIZED. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE
LATE MARCH NORMALS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
410 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UNAMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. FLOW IS VERY ZONAL IN
NATURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ONE VERY WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT IS RESULTING IN A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. THE CONVERGENT FOCUS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE ALONG THE 290-295K
SURFACES IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS TO THE WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING. FURTHER TO THE EAST WE FIND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST/GULF STREAM WATERS. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO
SUPPORTING A SCATTERING OF CONVECTION OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
SO...CURRENTLY WE ARE IN THE DRY ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS.
VERY NICE DAY ONGOING IN THIS DRY ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA.
SCT CU FIELD IS SPREADING INLAND AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED SEA-BREEZE.
HOWEVER...MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. INLAND
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 80S...WHILE COASTAL SPOTS ARE HELD
IN THE 70S WITH THE FLOW OFF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TONIGHT...FORECAST DILEMMA FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS WHETHER ANY OF THE
SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL SURVIVE ALL
THE WAY TO THE NATURE COAST ZONES. PRETTY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL FADE WITH TIME INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS IT
TRIES TO MOVE EAST...AND ALLOW BOTH THE SURFACE FOCUS AND OVERLYING
UPGLIDE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. THE ECMWF HAD BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE 00Z RUN...BUT HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TO MATCH MANY OF
THE OTHER MEMBERS SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS (IF ANYTHING)
ARRIVING AT THE NATURE COAST AFTER DARK. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A BRIEF
WINDOW OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST LATER THIS EVENING TO THE
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS...IF THEY OCCUR...SHOULD
NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES (LIKELY NOT
EVEN ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND). LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
SEASONABLE WITH 50S NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AND IN GENERALLY IN THE
LOW/MID 60S FROM I-4 SOUTHWARD.
SUNDAY...
UNEVENTFUL IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN
ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...AND SHOULD BE
AROUND THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY THE TIME THE SUN SETS TOMORROW EVENING.
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ARRIVING UP OVER OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES ALONG THIS FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...AND
THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND LIKELY NOT
ANY THUNDER. A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS EASTERN POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES WITHIN A ZONE OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE FAST INLAND PROPAGATION
OF THE WEST-COAST SEA-BREEZE...AND THE MORE "PINNED TO THE COAST"
EAST-COAST SEA-BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WARM WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 NORTH UNDER THE GREATER AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS...TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SUN/THINNER CLOUDS.
SIMILAR TO TODAY...A DECENT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN TO A POSITION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN NATURE. ONCE
AGAIN...THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SURFACE FOCUS AND OVERLYING UPGLIDE REGIME WILL BE MUCH MORE
DEFINED. SHOULD SEE A FEW SCT SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
I-4...AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO ITS STATIONARY POSITION.
THEREAFTER...THE UPGLIDE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED QUICKLY WITH THE
GFS ESPECIALLY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PATTERN BETWEEN THE 290-300K
SURFACE. JUST WHERE THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP WILL BE THE FORECAST ISSUE
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND TO
THE NORTH. AS OF NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE AT
LEAST SCT TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ONE BIAS THAT MANY LARGE SCALE NWP MODELS HAVE IS TO BE A BIT SLOW
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF QPF THAT IS FORCED PRIMARILY BY ANY UPGLIDE
REGIME. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE SHOWN
TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE ACTIVITY
GOING BY THE TIME OF THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
JUST A PARAGRAPH TO THOSE WHO LIKE WATCHING THE MODELS. AN
INTERESTING SETUP IS SEEN IN MANY OF THE GLOBAL MEMBERS OFF THE
EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ANY OUTPUT FROM A MODEL IS JUST ONE
OF ANY NUMBER OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS...AND SHOULD NEVER BE TAKEN AT
FACE VALUE. HOWEVER...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN
THE AMOUNT OF DEEPENING THAT OCCURS AND WITH THE SPEED OF DEEPENING.
BOTH SHOW A VERY IMPRESSIVE 45+MB OF SURFACE DEEPENING WITH A 24
HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN MIDDAY TUESDAY AND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WITH A
NEAR TEXTBOOK COUPLED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. DO NOT
WORRY...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAR PAST OUR REGION AND PULLING AWAY
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE THIS EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING WOULD
OCCUR... HOWEVER IT MAY HAVE AN IMPACT BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF
HELPING TO DRIVE A RATHER COOL AIRMASS FOR LATE MARCH DOWN INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR WEEKEND!
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS
AS MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FAST WEST-EAST FLOW ALOFT
WITH NUMEROUS DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH RESPECT TO SYNOPTIC WEATHER
FEATURES. AS A RESULT...WILL TRY TO MINIMIZE FORECAST ERROR THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND TAKE A BLENDED APPROACH TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A DECENT RAIN AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
INDUCING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
AS A COLD FRONT...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A VARIETY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS THEN SHOWING RETURN FLOW TO DIFFERING DEGREES RESULTING IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WILL NEED TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
EACH FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
22/18Z-23/12Z: VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME BKN CIRRUS IN THE
EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. LIMITED BR TOWARD SUNRISE WITH PREVAILING VSBY
6SM...HOWEVER LCL MVFR POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND MOSTLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN WESTERLY LATE SUN MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIP INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN STALL. SHOWERS WILL BECOME COMMON
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
THEN HELP STRENGTHEN THIS FRONT AND ALSO PUSH IT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS. A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS IS THEN LIKELY BEHIND THIS FRONT BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS
DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
WINDS AND ERC VALUE WILL PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS BY MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 61 79 66 77 / 10 10 30 60
FMY 63 86 67 82 / 0 0 10 50
GIF 61 83 64 78 / 10 10 30 60
SRQ 62 79 66 77 / 0 10 20 50
BKV 56 80 62 76 / 20 10 30 60
SPG 65 80 67 77 / 10 10 30 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
259 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.CURRENTLY...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS RIDGING MOVING EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS. ALOFT...FAST ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS...WITH A RIPPLE IN THE
FLOW THIS MORNING DEPARTING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...TAKING MOST
OF THE SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH IT. A
PRESCRIBED FIRE IN CLAY COUNTY IS THE ONLY ITEM ON THE JAX AND VAX
DOPPLER RADAR SCANS THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ARE BOOSTING INLAND
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80...WHILE A SEA BREEZE HAS COOLED
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT)...
ANY ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE WILL DEPART COASTAL SECTIONS BY SUNSET. CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE
850 MILLIBARS (ABOVE 5000 FT) WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY ADVECT SOME LOW STRATUS OR LIGHT FOG INTO
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HI-RES HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS...WHERE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SHELF WATER
TEMPERATURES NEAR 60. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...AND THUS INDICATED ONLY PATCHY
FOG IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. LOWS
INLAND SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S...WITH LOWS NEAR 60
EXPECTED AT THE COAST.
.SHORT TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON-
SEVERE BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. BREEZY W/SW FLOW AROUND 15 MPH WILL PUSH MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN ALL LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS
PUSHING THE MID 80S ACROSS NE FL WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE
IT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.
MONDAY...MUCH COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD TEMPS
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 60S FROM THE I-10
CORRIDOR TO MID/UPPER 60S REST OF NE FL. BREEZY/WINDY NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST AND I-95 CORRIDOR AT 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION AND EXPECT RAINFALL TO RE-
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER WITH THIS EVENT AND EXPECT
AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND ONE INCH.
TUESDAY...RAINFALL ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AS LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT SUNNY,
WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. MAX
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH
THE SUNSHINE ABLE TO PUSH THEM SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MONDAY`S
READINGS.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
TUE NIGHT/WED...UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION AND WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS DOWN INTO
THE 30S OVER INLAND AREAS AND 40S ALONG THE COAST AND ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN. WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN TOO ELEVATED TO PRODUCE MUCH
CHANCE FOR FROST OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THU-SAT...LONG RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO
THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME..SO
EXPECT A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH EXACT
TIMING STILL IN QUESTION. MODELS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THIS NEXT
EVENT BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES IN THIS TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON CIGS AROUND 3500 FT LIFTING AND DISSIPATING TOWARDS
SUNSET. SEA FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR SHORE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES
AT SSI AFTER 03Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AT GNV AND VQQ AFTER 08Z. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SUN MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS
AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH
SUNSET...WITH SPEEDS SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ABOVE 2000 FT AFTER 12Z SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST BELOW CAUTION SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS THEN STRONG NORTH SURGE DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
BECOMING NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AT 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE
30-35 KNOT RANGE. NOT LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH FOR A GALE WARNING BUT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE 3RD PERIOD SO WILL
LET MID SHIFT TAKE ONE FINAL LOOK AT EVENT BEFORE KICKING OUT
HEADLINE PRODUCTS. SURGE FADES SLOWLY MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN SWITCHES SHARPLY TO NORTHWEST AT
20-25 KNOTS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. SEAS GENERALLY BUILDING INTO THE 6-9 FT RANGE BY
MONDAY AND CONTINUING ELEVATED IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHEAST FLOW EVENT ON MONDAY WILL SEND TIDAL DEPARTURES/STORM
SURGE VALUES OF AT LEAST ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE SE GA/NE
FL COAST BUT TIMING WITH A LAST QUARTER MOON WILL ALLOW FOR TIDAL
VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW ANY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING VALUES. BREAKERS
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4-6 FT ON MONDAY WITH
A SOLID MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS: LINGERING LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING...CREATING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES. A LOW RISK IS ANTICIPATED ON SUN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 80 52 79 47 / 10 10 40 40
SSI 74 58 78 53 / 30 20 30 30
JAX 80 56 81 54 / 20 10 40 40
SGJ 77 58 79 58 / 20 10 30 30
GNV 79 53 81 57 / 10 0 30 30
OCF 82 54 82 59 / 0 0 20 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
NELSON/HESS/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1249 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
COAST ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE COOLER COASTAL
AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING 80 DEGREES IN A FEW
LOCALES...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THERE
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. IT
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY...KEEPING WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
THE RISK FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY END AND MOVE OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC JUST BEFORE SUNSET AS THE BURST OF ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC
ASSENT MOVES OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW VEERING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A DRY NIGHT TO
PREVAIL WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER
50S AT THE COAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIN ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
THICKENING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A 130 KT JET STREAK
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING
THE NECESSARY FORCING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE WAVE AND EMBEDDED
COLD FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DEEP MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE COASTLINE
BY THE AFTERNOON. HESITANT TO INDICATE RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN
ABOUT 40 PERCENT...AS A WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW GENERALLY
PREVAILS DURING FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN 1.25 INCHES. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WHEN COMBINED WITH A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT PULLS OFFSHORE. MODERATE NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE
COAST WILL BE THE COMBINED RESULT OF COOLER NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
INSULATING CLOUD COVER AND SOMEWHAT COUPLED FLOW.
MONDAY...TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND PUSH A WEDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST REGION BY
MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN SEEN
OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND...SUPPRESSED IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES. SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY
NIGHT...RAPIDLY SPINNING UP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION WITHIN
INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTLINE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO THE 60 OR EVEN
70 PERCENT RANGE. BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS COASTAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW SYSTEM.
TUESDAY...RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE INTENSIFYING COASTAL
LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY AND COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD IN ITS WAKE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
HEIGHTS FALLING BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING THE EAST COAST
AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY PEAK IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY. A RATHER COLD AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY TO ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO
THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
STEADILY MODERATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RETURNING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE
REGION LINGERING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING UP THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/MVFR CIGS AT EITHER TERM...BUT MOSTLY
AT KCHS. A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY
AT KCHS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. HIGHER CHANCES
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN IN TACT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT
OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SEAS 1-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...3-4 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS.
TONIGHT...EVEN LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A VERY BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL VEER WEST AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA WITH WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-4 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST TUESDAY AND IS
RAPIDLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG INLAND HIGH PRESSURE.
SEA FOG...INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVERSPREADING THE VERY CHILLY
SHELF WATERS COULD SUPPORT THE FORMATION SEA FOG LATER TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS ALWAYS LOW WITH THE ONSET OF THESE
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF POTENTIAL SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...OUTPUT FROM BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF SEA FOG FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SCENARIO CERTAINLY LOOKS PLAUSIBLE
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR SO WILL INTRODUCE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
IN THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE WITH
VSBYS 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. LATER SHIFTS MAY VERY WELL NEED TO
HIT THE SEA FOG FORECAST HARDER AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1119 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CHANCE/AMOUNT OF SNOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURE ROLLERCOASTER INTO MONDAY...AND WINDS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED/COMPLICATED FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH TRANSITIONS INTO A BROAD TROUGHINESS
AND PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT FLOW. ONE OF MAIN CONCERN IS TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH STRONGEST PORTION OF THE TROUGH
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN CANADA. COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT AND MUCH COLDER AIR APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AT THIS TIME.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS APPEARED TO INITIALIZE FINE. AT MID
LEVELS...PER SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THE NAM WAS DOING
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY THE UKMET AND
ECMWF...WITH THE SREF THE WORST. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD.
THE MODELS WERE A LITTLE WARM WITH THE GFS DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE UKMET...NAM AND CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET LOOKS TO STAY NOT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON THE SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DETAILS OVER US. AS IT LOOKS NOW THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE NORTHERN JET LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF OUR AREA AT 18Z. THE TREND THE LAST TWO DAYS IS TOO KEEP THIS A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND BE A LITTLE SLOWER IN ARRIVING INTO OUR
AREA. MODELS BRING THIS RIGHT REAR QUADRANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THIS RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY MID
EVENING THIS JET IS EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME POSSIBLE WEAK JET
AROUND THROUGH 06Z.
ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH IT
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND MOVING ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON IS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AT
THE SAME SPEED THE JET DOES. NOW WHAT LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING ON
SATELLITE IS BEING SHOWN BY TONIGHTS MODEL OUTPUT. THIS INCOMING
TROUGH STARTING TO SPLIT WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVING THROUGH PER
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THE SOUTHERN PORTION LOOKS TO BE GOING SOUTH AND
WEST OF MY AREA.
MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING EVEN IN THE NEAR TERM ON HOW FAST AND HOW
FAR TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. A VERY SMALL AREA OF
SNOW HAS MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OF THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
PRELIMINARY WEAK SHORTWAVE. HRRR AND RUC CATCH THIS NICELY AND
DISSIPATE BY 12Z. AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA BY LATE MORNING...AND UPPER JET GETS
CLOSER...MODELS START DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION GROWS IN COVERAGE AND SINKS SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING GREATEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATEST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT RESIDES ALONG WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS MAY BE CUTTING
OFF PRECIPITATION TOO SOON. A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/STRONG ZONE
OF NARROW FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND JET. MODEL SOUNDINGS...EVEN FURTHER NORTH BEHIND THE MAIN LIFT...
STAY SATURATED REALLY CLOSE TO THE DENDRITIC ZONE INTO THE EVENING.
SO DID NOT REALLY START DECREASING THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
PER ICE IN THE COLUMN AND VERY LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS...PHASE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW. HOWEVER...THE FAR SOUTH THAT SATURATES AND
COOLS LATER WILL STAY A MIXTURE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH POSSIBLY 3
INCHES...MAINLY IN THE FAR WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS...WILL OCCUR
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET. DUE TO THE THICK
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT COOLED AS MUCH THIS MORNING AS
WHAT THE MODELS THOUGHT. AGAIN TENDED TO FOLLOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATE IN THE
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW. GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS WOULD INDICATE AT
LEAST BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN HALF.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH. MODELS ARE
WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY THE NAM. DID WARM
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
RECYCLED COOL AIR...CHOSE TO GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
DUE TO JET LIFT FROM JET SEGMENT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET BEHIND THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH A DECENT
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTOGENESIS AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES
NEAR ZERO WOULD DEFINITELY SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SOME KIND OF
PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE EVEN SHOWING A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
CAPE. MODELS EVEN BRING A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY. PROBLEM IS ALL
THE MODEL SHOWING A DRY AND UNSATURATED AIR MASS. BUT CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY...DECIDED TO JUST MENTION
FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT COLD FRONT WILL THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION. THERE
LOOKS TO BE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH NEARLY 700 MB. IT LOOKS LIKE
WE COULD GET WINDY...POSSIBLY NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE WARM
DESPITE THE FRONTAL POSSIBLE PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PROGGED 850
MB TEMPERATURES.
ONLY THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING QPF FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MAIN LIFT IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER LOW
LEVELS. SO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THAT PERIOD. POSSIBLE IT
COULD JUST BE FLURRIES ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WILL HAVE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. THE ONLY ONE OF CONSEQUENCE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE RIDGE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 500MB JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE MODELS HAVE DRIED OUT THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DAY. THE COLD FRONT
WHICH MOVES IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE PUSHED BACK NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE AREA.
MODELS MOVE A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...BUT KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ALMOST 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION THE GUSTY WINDS NEAR 25 MPH COMBINED WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIP. CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS
SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIP. CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE. MODELS DISAGREE WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH...VARYING FROM THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. PRECIP.
CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH DO NOT LOOK AS PROMISING AS YESTERDAY DUE TO
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE DRIER AIR TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BY THURSDAY EVENING THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATES BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH
AS ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THIS
SECOND TROUGH WILL ALLOW SOME SMALL PRECIP. CHANCES FOR THE
AREA.
FRIDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES THE AREA PUSHING THE JET
STREAM AND MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT 17Z...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
LIGHT SNOW JUST ABOUT TO REACH KMCK WITH ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND
SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WORST FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT KMCK
POTENTIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE
SNOW...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL REACH KGLD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
315 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG OUR COAST
TUESDAY...SPREADING COLD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY WET
SNOW ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY ON TUESDAY. DRY AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...THE FIRST SEA-BREEZE RELATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED DOWN IN GEORGETOWN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 70S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT AT THE COOLER BEACHES...AND
THIS SPRINGTIME HEATING HAS HELPED TO DEVELOP A HEALTHY CU-FIELD IN
ADDITION TO THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT RELATED CONVECTION. EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SEA BREEZE FRONT.
SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE FIELD AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THERMAL
CONTRAST THROUGH THE FRONT MAKES PLACEMENT PROBLEMATICAL. BEST
GUESS HAS FRONT LINED UP JUST OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. WEAK
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AND A STRONG DIURNAL INVERSION SET-UP
MAKES CONVECTION UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT.
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...BIASED TOWARDS THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM
MOS...HAS ABOVE-AVERAGE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMUMS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WE WILL MANAGE ONE LAST DAY OF SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPS ON SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. BUT COME THROUGH IT WILL AND THE ENSUING
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE TREMENDOUS...OUR MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS OF 8C
FALLING TO -4 TO -8C BY 12Z MONDAY (SOUTH TO NORTH). MOISTURE FLUX
AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL SO RAIN CHANCES WILL
GENERALLY COME FOLLOWING FROPA IN THE UNDERCUTTING BUT ALSO BE
RATHER SHORT-LIVED SINCE THE COLUMN DRIES OUT DRAMATICALLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE NEW AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S
FOR THE FIRST TIME DURING THE RECENTLY STARTED OFFICIAL GROWING
SEASON...BUT A CONTINUED NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP THINGS MIXED
WELL ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZE. FROST MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
THOUGH. MONDAY BRINGS HIGH TEMPS SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EVEN
THOUGH THE CAA MERCIFULLY SHUTS DOWN. AN INTERESTING YET UNCERTAIN
ASPECT OF THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE SPEED AT WHICH
MOISTURE MANAGES TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER FLORIDA...THE VERY SAME LOW THAT MAY END UP BEING AN IMPRESSIVE
BOMB OFF NORTHEAST COAST. THIS IS OF RELATIVELY HEIGHTENED
IMPORTANCE SINCE THERMAL PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SOME WINTRY BUT NON
ACCUMULATING PRECIP...ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS. ADDITIONALLY THE WRF SUPPRESSES EVERYTHING TO OUR SOUTH.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE IN PLACE THIS SOLUTION APPEARS MUCH
MORE APPEALING. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY HAVE NOT REMOVED THE SNOW
BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
DURING THE PERIOD. ON TUE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
SAVANNAH IS LIFTED NORTHEAST BY MID LEVEL TROUGH. DEEP DRY AIR
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST TUE BRINGING AN END TO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
BY MIDDAY. THE 5H TROUGH EVENTUALLY BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BUT
NOT UNTIL THE LOW IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. EXITING DEEPENING LOW
AND BUILDING ARCTIC HIGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE STRONG COLD ADVECTION TUE NIGHT. 850 TEMPS DROP
CLOSE TO -10C BY WED MORNING...ENSURING LOWS WELL BELOW CLIMO TUE
NIGHT DESPITE STRONG MIXING.
COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS DURING WED AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS
EAST. LATE MARCH SUNSHINE WILL HELP OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD
ADVECTION BUT HIGHS WILL STILL END UP BELOW CLIMO...BY AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES. HIGHS WED MAY NOT REACH 50 IN MOST AREAS! ALTHOUGH WED
NIGHT WILL NOT BE A PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IT WILL BE
CLOSE. TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ARE LIKELY IN MOST AREAS WITH INLAND
AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 20S. AIR MASS MODIFIES THU/THU NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. HIGHS
WILL STILL RUN BELOW CLIMO...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW...WITH LOWS
RUNNING CLOSE TO CLIMO.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CAROLINAS DURING SAT. WILL MAINTAIN
SILENT POP SAT FOR CONVECTION WITH FROPA. TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE AT THE MYRTLES...MAINLY BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL. SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHT...TIME HEIGHT
SHOWS CONTINUED FLOW OF MOISTURE...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY BOUNCING
FROM MID CLOUD TO OCCASIONAL VFR STRATOCU. IF THERE IS SOME
CLEARING...LOOK FOR SOME MVFR FOG TO SET UP. SUNDAY...VFR IN THE
MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BY MIDDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME AFTER THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR MONDAY. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:00 PM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND THEN OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SW WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS
NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MORE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE DUE
TO A DEVELOPING SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS THIS EVENING THEN AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE FRONT SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3
FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ENSUING WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS WILL BUILD
SEAS AND STEEPEN WAVE FACES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEEMS POSSIBLE
BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND WHICH
ZONES WILL MEET CRITERIA TO PRECLUDE ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AFTER
COLLAB WITH ADJACENT WFOS. THE NE FLOW WILL REMAIN FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE PERIOD AS A VERY WINTRY HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SETTLES IN EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT MODERATELY STRONG
ACROSS THE WATERS AND MANY ZONES WILL BE CLOSE TO SCEC/ADVISORY
CUTOFFS FOR BOTH WIND AND SEAS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AT SOME
POINT TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS DEPARTING LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN. GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS BECOMES PINCHED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW APPROACHING 30 KT
TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS WED AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE DROPPING
TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY VEERS TO
NORTHEAST WED NIGHT AND SPEEDS DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT AS THE CENTER OF
THE ELONGATED HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN NC/VA. ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS THU AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. WEAK GRADIENT WILL
KEEP SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE 4 TO 6
FT SEAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. REDUCTION IN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EQUATE TO
SEAS DROPPING TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR WED AND 2 TO 4 FT WED NIGHT AND THU.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...REK/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
124 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS NEAR THE
COAST CAN BE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY. A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG
OUR COAST TUESDAY...SPREADING COLD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND
POSSIBLY WET SNOW ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY ON TUESDAY. DRY
AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:15 PM SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEACHES. SEA BREEZE CU DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND A MORE
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD IS NOW FORMING THROUGHOUT THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RELEVANT
PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:
WARM ADVECTION TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
COUPLED WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SW FLOW SHOULD BRING MILD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S WELL INLAND...TO THE LOW 70S
CLOSER TO THE CHILLY MARINE LAYER...AND 60S ALONG IMMEDIATE
BEACHES.
THE LARGE LAND VERSUS SEA TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL DRIVE A ROBUST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM THIS RESULTANT
BOUNDARY...AND INCREASING H9-H7 ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY AFTER 16Z/NOON
COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG POTENTIALLY A
NARROW CORRIDOR OVER OUR COASTAL INTERIOR. REFRIGERATED SEA-AIR
AND DRY MID-LEVELS SHOULD DETER DEEP CONVECTION AND NO THUNDER IS
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE LIKELY AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
NEAR THE COAST MAY REALIZE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EARLY AS THE NIPPY
OCEAN AIR SPREADS INLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
FROPA EARLY ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WINDS FROM THE NW-W INTO DAYBREAK
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SSE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT IS WEAK AND
NO APPRECIABLE LIFT APPEARS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS...AND WITH
SPARSE MOISTURE...NO MENTIONABLE POPS PLANNED FROM LATE THIS EVE
INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD DURING THE SHORT TERM
COURTESY OF TWO SYSTEMS. INITIALLY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN INCREASING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MAXIMIZED ALONG OUR CWA VIA LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
THE FRONT COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
POWERFUL 300MB JET MOVING ACROSS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE
SPLIT FLOW. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WE SHOULD SEE A 12-18 HOUR RESPITE FROM QPF BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN ONCE AGAIN COURTESY OF THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY
TUESDAY.
THE GFS REMAINS STABLE WITH REGARDS TO ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
AROUND 0600 UTC TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INLAND
LOCATIONS SUPPORTING SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH RAIN BEFORE 1200 UTC
TUESDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. I DID INCREASE
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY UPWARD A BIT AS THE FRONT IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. I
ALSO INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST BEYOND
TUESDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MAKING A RAPID DEPARTURE WELL
OFF THE COAST. I CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY
AND A FEW HOURS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX INLAND. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL BE VERY COLD AND DRY AND AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST VIA THE MORE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. A RETURN FLOW BEGINS AT THIS POINT AND IT MAY ALLOW A
COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES RESPOND QUICKLY TO THE LATE MARCH SUN WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE AT THE MYRTLES...MAINLY BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL. SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHT...TIME HEIGHT
SHOWS CONTINUED FLOW OF MOISTURE...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY BOUNCING
FROM MID CLOUD TO OCCASIONAL VFR STRATOCU. IF THERE IS SOME
CLEARING...LOOK FOR SOME MVFR FOG TO SET UP. SUNDAY...VFR IN THE
MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BY MIDDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME AFTER THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR MONDAY. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:15 PM SATURDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...AND WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR
SHORE AS A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION GEARS UP CONCURRENTLY WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. GUSTS TO 20 KT FROM THE SSE-SSW BY THE
MIDDLE AFTERNOON CAN BE EXPECTED. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT IN ESE SWELL
THIS MORNING WILL SEE INCREASING WIND WAVES AND CHOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS KICK UP. THUS DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS
OF 12 SECONDS EARLY...WILL SHORTEN TO 5-7 SECONDS THIS
AFTERNOON...PRODUCING STEEPER WAVES. THIS MAY BRING SEAS TO 3-5 FT
LATE TODAY INTO EVENING. MARINERS ARE REMINDED WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FRIGID AND HYPOTHERMIA IS STILL A POTENTIAL AND LURKING
THREAT AWAY FROM LAND.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT WINDS GO TO NORTHERLY FROM 20-25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE AND MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH...WINDS WILL
ACTUALLY WEAKEN AS THE LOW IS SLOW TO DEEPEN AND THERE IS MORE
IMPACT FROM WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. SPEEDS DROP TO 15-20 KNOTS.
THERE IS A VEERING TO NORTHEAST/EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE WINDS WITH HIGHER VALUES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE MIDWEEK FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. SPEEDS WILL
CERTAINLY ECLIPSE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AND MAY BRIEFLY SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS INTO GALE CRITERIA. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO
OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE OFFSHORE WITH THE
TYPICAL RAPID DECREASE TOWARD SHORELINE AREAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...REK/DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.AVIATION...
CIGS/VIS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CIGS STILL
MVFR IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. DRT IS VFR. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR AT REMAINING TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST AND THEN NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING MVFR CIGS AND WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHRA STARTING MID-
MORNING SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014/
UPDATE...
FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED
DAYTIME HEATING AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
FOG. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE HI-RES RUC AND OTHER SHORT RANGE
MODELS AGREE IN SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE WINDS AND DEW POINTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014/
AVIATION...
A MIX OF VLIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH PATCHY -DZ WILL LIFT TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING AND VFR ALL AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER
CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCT ACROSS SOME WESTERN AREAS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHRA AND
TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS...AND BECOME SCT SHRA KAUS AREA TONIGHT AND REST OF
AREA ON SUNDAY AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD. S TO SE
WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME N TO NE 10 TO
20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MOISTURE POOLING WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX TODAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES OVER WEST CENTRAL TX. A FLAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND A FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION TO A JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR
WEAK LIFT OVER THE AREA...PROMOTING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR
SPRINKLES WITH SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE OVER MANY AREAS.
LATE IN THE DAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF
HWY 90...BUT MUCH OF THIS POTENTIAL ASSUMES CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO
CLEAR OUT TO PROMOTE SOME ADDED HEATING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
DEEP CONVECTION LIES OVER CENTRAL TX AND GENERALLY NEAR AND TO THE
EAST AND NORTH OF AUS WHERE THE FRONT WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
INTERACT WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED BE MARGINAL OVER CENTRAL TX...BUT STORMS COULD TAP INTO
DEEPER CAPES AROUND SAN ANTONIO SHOULD THE FRONT SLIP SOUTH INTO
AN AREA WHERE THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS FOR TODAY
ASSUMES SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR AND TO THE
WEST OF SAN ANTONIO. THUS THE HWO WILL ADDRESS A FEW STORMS WITH
POSSIBLE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
POPS REMAIN IN A CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE WEAK FEATURES IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT DO NOT SEEM TO FAVOR LARGE AREAS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP. A
FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE OVERRUNNING. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY HAVE LEVELED OFF IN THE MODEL TRENDS WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE STORMY ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAIN INTO MONDAY...AND THERE IS ANOTHER ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD THE SKIES OPEN UP MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AFTER ANOTHER
FRONT PUSHES IN MONDAY NIGHT. THUS THE COLD AIR MASS FOR TUESDAY
SHOULD BE DRIER AT FIRST...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF ENERGY
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVERRUNNING BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS
ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND A
FAIRLY BENIGN TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 52 57 46 62 44 / 30 40 40 40 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 52 57 45 62 42 / 30 40 40 40 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 59 46 62 44 / 20 50 40 50 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 48 54 43 64 42 / 20 30 30 40 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 66 51 68 53 / 20 50 30 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 50 55 43 62 42 / 30 40 30 40 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 58 63 49 64 48 / 20 50 40 50 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 53 58 46 61 43 / 20 40 40 50 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 61 47 61 45 / 20 40 40 50 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 56 62 49 62 47 / 20 50 40 50 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 57 63 50 62 48 / 20 50 40 50 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1143 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.UPDATE...
FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED
DAYTIME HEATING AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
FOG. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE HI-RES RUC AND OTHER SHORT RANGE
MODELS AGREE IN SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE WINDS AND DEW POINTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014/
AVIATION...
A MIX OF VLIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH PATCHY -DZ WILL LIFT TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING AND VFR ALL AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER
CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCT ACROSS SOME WESTERN AREAS. MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHRA AND
TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS...AND BECOME SCT SHRA KAUS AREA TONIGHT AND REST OF
AREA ON SUNDAY AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD. S TO SE
WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME N TO NE 10 TO
20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MOISTURE POOLING WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX TODAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES OVER WEST CENTRAL TX. A FLAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND A FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION TO A JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR
WEAK LIFT OVER THE AREA...PROMOTING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR
SPRINKLES WITH SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE OVER MANY AREAS.
LATE IN THE DAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF
HWY 90...BUT MUCH OF THIS POTENTIAL ASSUMES CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO
CLEAR OUT TO PROMOTE SOME ADDED HEATING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
DEEP CONVECTION LIES OVER CENTRAL TX AND GENERALLY NEAR AND TO THE
EAST AND NORTH OF AUS WHERE THE FRONT WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
INTERACT WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED BE MARGINAL OVER CENTRAL TX...BUT STORMS COULD TAP INTO
DEEPER CAPES AROUND SAN ANTONIO SHOULD THE FRONT SLIP SOUTH INTO
AN AREA WHERE THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS FOR TODAY
ASSUMES SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR AND TO THE
WEST OF SAN ANTONIO. THUS THE HWO WILL ADDRESS A FEW STORMS WITH
POSSIBLE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
POPS REMAIN IN A CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE WEAK FEATURES IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT DO NOT SEEM TO FAVOR LARGE AREAS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP. A
FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE OVERRUNNING. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY HAVE LEVELED OFF IN THE MODEL TRENDS WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE STORMY ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAIN INTO MONDAY...AND THERE IS ANOTHER ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD THE SKIES OPEN UP MONDAY AFTERNOON. A
MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AFTER ANOTHER
FRONT PUSHES IN MONDAY NIGHT. THUS THE COLD AIR MASS FOR TUESDAY
SHOULD BE DRIER AT FIRST...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF ENERGY
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVERRUNNING BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS
ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND A
FAIRLY BENIGN TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 52 57 46 62 / 20 30 40 40 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 52 57 45 62 / 20 30 40 40 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 55 59 46 62 / 20 20 50 40 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 48 54 43 64 / 30 20 30 30 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 61 66 51 68 / 20 20 50 30 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 50 55 43 62 / 30 30 40 30 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 58 63 49 64 / 20 20 50 40 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 53 58 46 61 / 20 20 40 40 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 80 55 61 47 61 / 20 20 40 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 56 62 49 62 / 20 20 50 40 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 57 63 50 62 / 20 20 50 40 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
247 PM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
WYOMING. EXPECTING SNOW TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER AND THEN OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A 1040 MB SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SFC WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SWITCHING FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH. THIS PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG WITH INCREASING NEAR SFC MOISTURE FROM THE
RECENT SNOW WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS WITHIN THE COLD POST FRONTAL AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...LOOKING
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP IN TYPICAL
UPSLOPE FOG LOCATIONS VCTY SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN
WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGEST THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE VERY
DENSE...BUT THINK VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO AT LEAST A MILE. IN THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND FOOTHILLS...DO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO DROP
BELOW A MILE FOR A PERIOD EARLY TONIGHT WITHIN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH A LEE SIDE SFC PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. AS THE SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH THE COLD AIRMASS AND FOG/LOW
CLOUDS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BECOME VERY STRONG...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 50 MPH ARE LOOKING A LIKELY BET IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SFC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT WARMER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF WAA AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
ANY PRECIP. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TOMORROW LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH CHANGING TO
SNOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A QUICK HITTER
WITH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM...SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS OVERALL ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BY
MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL GUST
ON AVERAGE 25 TO 35 MPH. HIGHER SPEEDS WILL OCCUR IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OUT WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LAYING UP ALONG THE EAST LARAMIE RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH TUESDAY. GOING TO
HAVE A PRETTY COLD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 0C SO WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF MOVING THE
ENERGY INTO NORTHERN COLORADO AND THE GFS BRINGING THE VORT MAX
THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING. THIS SLIGHT DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON POPS. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS COMES
TRUE...WIDESPREAD SNOW WOULD RESULT. DID A BLEND ON THE TWO MODELS
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS.
FRONT TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
LOW FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVERLAYS THE AREA. THIS SNOW IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...BUT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SMALL BREAK FOR AIRPORTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR THE SOUTH AND HERE AT KCYS...DO BELIEVE
WE WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CEILINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT
WEST AND BECOME DOWNSLOPING THIS EVENING LATE...SO VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN THEN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
COOL CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL KEEP ANY FIRE WEATHER THREATS AT
BAY. WARMER AND BREEZY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN MORE COOL WEATHER
LATE INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1139 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
TODAY...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES FROM WESTERN
WYOMING THIS MORNING TO NORTHERN COLORADO THIS EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER OUR
DEEPLY MOIST LOW AND MID LEVELS...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...MOSTLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BASED
ON THE QPF STILL LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH A
FEW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES...THOUGH STILL TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
TONIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
AWAY AND LIFT DECREASES.
SUNDAY...NEXT LOWER AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES TO NORTHERN WYOMING...PRODUCING DECENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
AND A WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...NEXT COLD FRONT AND BAROCLINIC BAND MOVE ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES AS THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...PRODUCING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF OUR COUNTIES BUT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING WITH A RIDGE BUILDING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY BUT THERE COULD
BE ONE MORE BACKDOOR PUSH OF COOL AIR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. BY TUESDAY MUCH WARMER DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL SET IN WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S...COULD BE EVEN WARMER BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A
LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. COOLER GOING INTO THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE WEEK AS
PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
LOW FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD
SNOW OVERLAYS THE AREA. THIS SNOW IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...BUT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SMALL BREAK FOR AIRPORTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR THE SOUTH AND HERE AT KCYS...DO BELIEVE
WE WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CEILINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT
WEST AND BECOME DOWNSLOPING THIS EVENING LATE...SO VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN THEN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT MAR 22 2014
COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP ANY FIRE WEATHER
THREATS AT BAY. SNOW WILL BE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE
WITH MOST OF THE SNOW OCCURRING THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE A DUSTING
TO AROUND 1 INCH. WARMER AND BREEZY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN
MORE COOL WEATHER LATE INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...SML