Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/21/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
344 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER THE
AREA WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SATELLITE SHOWING WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING AT THIS TIME...EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN COLORADO. SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK WAVE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT GUSTY
ACROSS THE RIDGES AND PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS...DUE MAINLY TO
MIXING. WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE CIRRUS
WITH THE PASSING WAVE. SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE WAVE WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS A BIT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. OVERNIGHT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AS THE GREAT BASIN UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT. SPATIAL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE LATEST RUC SHOWING ABOUT 40 KTS AT MOUNTAIN TOP. THERE ARE
HINTS AT A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. SOME FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS COULD SEE GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. WEAK
MID LEVEL DESCENT COMBINED WITH MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP GUSTY
WINDS GOING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE PLAINS...DOWNSLOPE
WINDS TO PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON WITH MORE OF A NORTHWEST COMPONENT
AFTER 18Z. MAY ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
BORDERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. WARMER AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO
THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ONE WEATHER DISTURBANCE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER ONE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH THE UPPER FEATURES...SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL DROP OVER
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOL SIDE. AS THE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
ALSO BE IN THE VICINITY TO HELP ORGANIZE THE PASSING SYSTEMS.
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR RECEIVING OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL WITH EACH SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MOISTURE CONTENT SEEMS
LIMITED SINCE THE SYSTEMS ARE COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. ON THE OTHER HAND...EACH SYSTEM WILL TAKE 24-30 HOURS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS
TO ACCUMULATE. ON THE PLAINS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE RANGE
THAT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS TO
SWITCH TO MORE OF A DRAINAGE PATTERN THIS EVENING. SPEEDS AROUND 8
KTS TO PREVAIL...THOUGH KBJC MAY SEE SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KTS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO PREVAIL WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1003 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
915 PM CDT
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF TONIGHT. WE STILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SIMILAR MINIMUM TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER TO MID LEVEL JET MAXIMUM IS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE AREA
THIS EVE AND THIS HAS BEGUN TO INTRODUCE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS
WELL AS STRENGTHENING ASCENT. THE WARM FRONT IN THE LOWER LEVELS
IS WELL DEFINED AT 850MB...WITH A 6C DIFFERENCE THIS EVE BETWEEN
THE 00Z RAOBS AT ILX AND DVN AS WELL AS VEERING WINDS BETWEEN THE
TWO...INDICATING THE PLACEMENT OF THE 850MB WARM FRONT BASICALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-45 KT IS
POINTED INTO THIS AREA AS SEEN ON VAD WIND PROFILES...BUT THIS IS
STRUGGLING TO STEER IN MUCH MOISTURE THANKS TO DRY SOURCE REGION
AIR ACROSS MO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...THERE HAVE
BEEN A BLOSSOMING OF 8-12K FT CIGS AND RADAR ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL
IL. THE RESIDUAL DRY AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE HAS KEPT MUCH
OF THIS FROM REACHING THE GROUND THROUGH 900 PM.
WITH THE IMPROVING FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVERRIDING THE
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...GRADUAL SATURATION AND LOWERING
OF CLOUD BASES SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD OCCUR...ENOUGH SO FOR SOME
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP TO PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND. BELIEVE THAT THE
PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH MUCH FURTHER NORTH BASED ON THE DRY
AIR AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST ASCENT. LIGHT PRECIP STILL
COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE CENTRAL CWA FOLLOWING THE
TOP DOWN WET-BULB PROFILES FROM THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW
SOUNDINGS...WHICH SEEM ON PAR THERMALLY WITH THE DVN SOUNDING. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES DID DROP QUICKLY THIS EVE IN NORTHERN AREAS INCLUDING
CHICAGOLAND THANKS TO CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH A LAKE
BREEZE THAT HAD PUSHED THROUGH PARTS OF CHICAGO. TEMPS SHOULD
STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND EVEN MAY INCH
UPWARD WITH THE SURFACE WIND SPEED STARTING TO COME UP. IF PRECIP
WERE TO EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP...BUT RIGHT NOW THAT CHANCE
IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
333 PM CDT
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE SUN ANGLE IS CROSSING THE EQUATOR SIGNALLY
THE SPRING EQUINOX...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HAS SOMETHING ELSE IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE A WEAK CLIPPER DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NRN MN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE DEFINED...LAYING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE
ECMWF AND AND GEM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...NORTH OF THE
SFC WARM FRONT IN A ZONE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. SINCE THE AREA
HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM DIRECT FLOW OFF OF THE GLFMEX...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER AND ANY ASSOCIATED PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PCPN TYPE. BASED ON
THERMAL PROFILES...IN PARTICULAR FROM THE HIGH RES LOCAL WRF...THE
PCPN SHOULD INITIALLY START AS RAIN SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL BE A
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP WARM LAYER FROM THE SFC. AS THE COLUMN COOLS
OVERNIGHT AND THE SFC COOLS EVEN FASTER UNDER CLEARING SKIES...THERE
SHOULD BE A SHALLOW LAYER WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN
SUB-FREEZING AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. AS THE SFC FREEZING LAYER
INCREASES WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATE THAT NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION TO A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN/SLEET TO SNOW/SLEET
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SLOW DURG THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE PCPN REMAIN ALL LIQUID AS
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN
COMPLICATION IS THE TRANSITION FROM RA/IP TO IP/SN FOR A CORRIDOR
GENERALLY BTWN I-80 AND I-88...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING...DURATION AND AREAL EXTEND OF MIXED PCPN OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY IS SETTING UP TO BE A TEASE OF SOME SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS AS
THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH WHILE WHILE THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE
CLIPPER TRACKS ACROSS CNTRL WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THE DEGREE OF WARMING TOMORROW WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK EWD...BUT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS TRACKING THE SYSTEM ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE PERIOD OF STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE LONG ENOUGH
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER ALL
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER. BUT EVEN THERE...THE GOING FORECAST HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE AND TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST OF MIDDLE 50S. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRAILING FROM THE SFC LOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING
RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.
HAVE BUMPED UP QPF AND POPS OVER WHAT THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST IN
DEFERENCE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT 12 HOURS OF OPEN GLFMEX...WHICH WILL ALLOW
A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO...WHILE CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR MEASURABLE
PCPN...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION IS NOT QUITE SO HIGH.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF TEASE OF
SPRING WILL COME TO A QUICK END AND THE AREA WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO
WINTER. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET
UP A LENGTHY PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGIONS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
FOR THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PCPN. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS FOR INCREASING AMPLITUDE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA...CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING THE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PCPN...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN EXACT TIMING
AND TRACKS...HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF MODEST HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
OVER THE CNTRL CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO A SLOW...STEADY WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY RISE FROM HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ON MONDAY
TO MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50F BY THURSDAY.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
* SEVERAL WIND CHANGES.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
HIGH PRESSURE LIES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING WHILE A WARM FRONT
STRADDLES CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LIGHT FLOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
HIGH HAS ALLOWED A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP WHICH HAS ALREADY
PROGRESSED ACROSS SOME OF THE CHICAGO TERMINALS TURNING WINDS
EASTERLY. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL COME AROUND EASTERLY THEN EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. MANY
MODELS DO PAINT A NARROW STRIP OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST IN BUT KEEP IT SOUTH OF ORD WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
BE...BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR OVER MDW/GYY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT ELSEWHERE. NOT CONFIDENT HOW WIDESPREAD
THE PRECIP WILL BE BUT FOR NOW ONLY HAVE ABOUT 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIP...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT MDW/GYY. IF
PRECIP DOES MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS...THE BEST TIMING APPEARS
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08-11Z AND WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER MVFR CIGS AND ALSO
HAVE TO DEAL WITH CHANGING PRECIP TYPE AS IT MAY START AS SNOW/SLEET
CHANGING RAIN/SLEET. WINDS TOMORROW WILL QUICKLY SWING AROUND THE
DIAL...TURNING TURNING S/SW BRIEFLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES...THEN SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION TRENDS/SPEEDS TO WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP/MVFR CIGS 07Z-10Z.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CHC SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
243 PM...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED
FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. WHILE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS
INCREASED...IT STILL REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THUS...
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTH...WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND RAPIDLY CHANGING
WIND DIRECTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN WEST/NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
919 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
915 PM CDT
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF TONIGHT. WE STILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SIMILAR MINIMUM TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER TO MID LEVEL JET MAXIMUM IS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE AREA
THIS EVE AND THIS HAS BEGUN TO INTRODUCE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS
WELL AS STRENGTHENING ASCENT. THE WARM FRONT IN THE LOWER LEVELS
IS WELL DEFINED AT 850MB...WITH A 6C DIFFERENCE THIS EVE BETWEEN
THE 00Z RAOBS AT ILX AND DVN AS WELL AS VEERING WINDS BETWEEN THE
TWO...INDICATING THE PLACEMENT OF THE 850MB WARM FRONT BASICALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-45 KT IS
POINTED INTO THIS AREA AS SEEN ON VAD WIND PROFILES...BUT THIS IS
STRUGGLING TO STEER IN MUCH MOISTURE THANKS TO DRY SOURCE REGION
AIR ACROSS MO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...THERE HAVE
BEEN A BLOSSOMING OF 8-12K FT CIGS AND RADAR ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL
IL. THE RESIDUAL DRY AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE HAS KEPT MUCH
OF THIS FROM REACHING THE GROUND THROUGH 900 PM.
WITH THE IMPROVING FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVERRIDING THE
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...GRADUAL SATURATION AND LOWERING
OF CLOUD BASES SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD OCCUR...ENOUGH SO FOR SOME
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP TO PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND. BELIEVE THAT THE
PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH MUCH FURTHER NORTH BASED ON THE DRY
AIR AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST ASCENT. LIGHT PRECIP STILL
COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE CENTRAL CWA FOLLOWING THE
TOP DOWN WET-BULB PROFILES FROM THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW
SOUNDINGS...WHICH SEEM ON PAR THERMALLY WITH THE DVN SOUNDING. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES DID DROP QUICKLY THIS EVE IN NORTHERN AREAS INCLUDING
CHICAGOLAND THANKS TO CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH A LAKE
BREEZE THAT HAD PUSHED THROUGH PARTS OF CHICAGO. TEMPS SHOULD
STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND EVEN MAY INCH
UPWARD WITH THE SURFACE WIND SPEED STARTING TO COME UP. IF PRECIP
WERE TO EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP...BUT RIGHT NOW THAT CHANCE
IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
333 PM CDT
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE SUN ANGLE IS CROSSING THE EQUATOR SIGNALLY
THE SPRING EQUINOX...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HAS SOMETHING ELSE IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE A WEAK CLIPPER DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NRN MN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE DEFINED...LAYING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE
ECMWF AND AND GEM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...NORTH OF THE
SFC WARM FRONT IN A ZONE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. SINCE THE AREA
HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM DIRECT FLOW OFF OF THE GLFMEX...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER AND ANY ASSOCIATED PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PCPN TYPE. BASED ON
THERMAL PROFILES...IN PARTICULAR FROM THE HIGH RES LOCAL WRF...THE
PCPN SHOULD INITIALLY START AS RAIN SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL BE A
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP WARM LAYER FROM THE SFC. AS THE COLUMN COOLS
OVERNIGHT AND THE SFC COOLS EVEN FASTER UNDER CLEARING SKIES...THERE
SHOULD BE A SHALLOW LAYER WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN
SUB-FREEZING AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. AS THE SFC FREEZING LAYER
INCREASES WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATE THAT NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION TO A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN/SLEET TO SNOW/SLEET
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SLOW DURG THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE PCPN REMAIN ALL LIQUID AS
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN
COMPLICATION IS THE TRANSITION FROM RA/IP TO IP/SN FOR A CORRIDOR
GENERALLY BTWN I-80 AND I-88...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING...DURATION AND AREAL EXTEND OF MIXED PCPN OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY IS SETTING UP TO BE A TEASE OF SOME SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS AS
THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH WHILE WHILE THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE
CLIPPER TRACKS ACROSS CNTRL WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THE DEGREE OF WARMING TOMORROW WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK EWD...BUT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS TRACKING THE SYSTEM ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE PERIOD OF STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE LONG ENOUGH
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER ALL
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER. BUT EVEN THERE...THE GOING FORECAST HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE AND TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST OF MIDDLE 50S. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRAILING FROM THE SFC LOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING
RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.
HAVE BUMPED UP QPF AND POPS OVER WHAT THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST IN
DEFERENCE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT 12 HOURS OF OPEN GLFMEX...WHICH WILL ALLOW
A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO...WHILE CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR MEASURABLE
PCPN...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION IS NOT QUITE SO HIGH.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF TEASE OF
SPRING WILL COME TO A QUICK END AND THE AREA WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO
WINTER. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET
UP A LENGTHY PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGIONS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
FOR THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PCPN. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS FOR INCREASING AMPLITUDE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA...CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING THE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PCPN...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN EXACT TIMING
AND TRACKS...HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF MODEST HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
OVER THE CNTRL CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO A SLOW...STEADY WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY RISE FROM HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ON MONDAY
TO MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50F BY THURSDAY.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
* SEVERAL WIND CHANGES.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
HIGH PRESSURE LIES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING WHILE A WARM FRONT
STRADDLES CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LIGHT FLOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
HIGH HAS ALLOWED A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP WHICH HAS ALREADY
PROGRESSED ACROSS SOME OF THE CHICAGO TERMINALS TURNING WINDS
EASTERLY. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL COME AROUND EASTERLY THEN EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. MANY
MODELS DO PAINT A NARROW STRIP OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST IN BUT KEEP IT SOUTH OF ORD WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL
BE...BUT STILL CLOSE TO OR OVER MDW/GYY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THE DRY AIR MAY WIN OUT ELSEWHERE. NOT CONFIDENT HOW WIDESPREAD
THE PRECIP WILL BE BUT FOR NOW ONLY HAVE ABOUT 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIP...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS EXCEPT FOR VCSH AT MDW/GYY. IF
PRECIP DOES MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS...THE BEST TIMING APPEARS
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08-11Z AND WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER MVFR CIGS AND ALSO
HAVE TO DEAL WITH CHANGING PRECIP TYPE AS IT MAY START AS SNOW/SLEET
CHANGING RAIN/SLEET. WINDS TOMORROW WILL QUICKLY SWING AROUND THE
DIAL...TURNING TURNING S/SW BRIEFLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES...THEN SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION TRENDS/SPEEDS TO WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP/MVFR CIGS 08Z-11Z.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CHC SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
243 PM...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED
FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. WHILE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS
INCREASED...IT STILL REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THUS...
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTH...WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND RAPIDLY CHANGING
WIND DIRECTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN WEST/NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
237 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
AN ACTIVE SHORT WAVE PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TODAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. SOME WEAK POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN NOTED PER RAP ANALYSIS ALONG LOW LEVEL
WARM FRONTAL ZONE...BUT OVERALL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DEPTH HAS
BEEN LACKING WITH THIS LEAD VORT MAX. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOIST
TONGUE WILL BE ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG VORT MAX KICKING OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. A
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OFF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO LIFT INTO THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. COMBINATION OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND NOTABLE
UPPER DVG IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130 KNOT JET CORE NOSING INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
EXPANSION OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH
EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN DYNAMICS/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA GIVEN NORTHEAST TRACK OF EASTERN MISSOURI VORT MAX. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...PREFRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD TEND TO INCREASE FRONTAL
RESPONSE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE...AND GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER DVG FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK...WILL CONTINUE
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL
EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS RANGE...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER DOES APPEAR TO BE IN PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHIFT
EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. DIFFICULT DIURNAL TREND TO RESOLVE
TEMPERATURE WISE TODAY GIVEN EFFECTS FROM PRECIPITATION AND
STRONGER CAA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WARMEST HIGHS AROUND 50
STILL APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS...WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...TRANSITION TO NEUTRAL OR
A SLIGHT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR DEEPEST
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH TROWAL WRAPPING BACK
TO THE WEST. ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM WAVES DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MARGINAL WET BULB PROFILES AND PROGRESSION OF DEEPER MOISTURE
PROFILES EAST OF THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE BETTER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DIMINISHES AND AS CONTINUED SHEARED VORTICES DROP INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...WILL OMIT MENTION IN FORECAST AT
THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND SHORT DURATION OF
THIS POTENTIAL. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS/CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
MINS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FLATTER PACIFIC DOMINANT FLOW REGIME EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS DAY TO DAY. MODEST HEIGHT
RISES IN WAKE OF TODAY`S UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO
BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL WORK
QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. LEFTOVER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS. MAY SEE A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW MIX) DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS CONVERGENCE BRIEFLY
INCREASES/DEEPENS ALONG BOUNDARY ON NOSE OF DEVELOPING LLJ...WITH
SOME ADDED ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING LEAD/WEAK/SHEARED MID LEVEL
IMPULSE. SHIFTED AXIS OF HIGHER CHC POPS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FA GIVEN TRENDS IN 12/00Z MODELS. REGARDLESS...EXPECT
ANY RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH NO HYDRO/TRAVEL CONCERNS
ANTICIPATED.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATER
FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO
LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ENOUGH INSOLATION WITH 925
MB TEMPS SURGING TO BTW 10-12C WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE BY LATE IN THE
DAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR INDIANA/OHIO ZONES. THIS WARM UP WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE SHORT
LIVED AS AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED
DEEPENING SFC REFLECTION TRACKING EAST THROUGH MICHIGAN FORCES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST A BROKEN
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONT.
A TREND TOWARD EVEN COLDER TEMPS ANTICIPATED BEHIND A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST FORCING BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A SFC HIGH OF NORTHWEST
CANADA ORIGINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY/COLD CONDITIONS BEFORE A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGS SOME SNOW TO THE AREA AROUND MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
AN AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE SBN
AREA VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. KEPT A SHORT DURATION IFR TEMPO
GROUP FOR THIS AREA OF RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER AFTER FROPA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AT SBN. IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN...LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH EVENTUALLY
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVERNIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
653 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
AN ACTIVE SHORT WAVE PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TODAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. SOME WEAK POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN NOTED PER RAP ANALYSES ALONG LOW LEVEL
WARM FRONTAL ZONE...BUT OVERALL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DEPTH HAS
BEEN LACKING WITH THIS LEAD VORT MAX. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOIST
TONGUE WILL BE ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG VORT MAX KICKING OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. A
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OFF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO LIFT INTO THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. COMBINATION OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND NOTABLE
UPPER DVG IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130 KNOT JET CORE NOSING INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
EXPANSION OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH
EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN DYNAMICS/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA GIVEN NORTHEAST TRACK OF EASTERN MISSOURI VORT MAX. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...PREFRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD TEND TO INCREASE FRONTAL
RESPONSE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE...AND GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER DVG FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK...WILL CONTINUE
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL
EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS RANGE...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER DOES APPEAR TO BE IN PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHIFT
EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. DIFFICULT DIURNAL TREND TO RESOLVE
TEMPERATURE WISE TODAY GIVEN EFFECTS FROM PRECIPITATION AND
STRONGER CAA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WARMEST HIGHS AROUND 50
STILL APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS...WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...TRANSITION TO NEUTRAL OR
A SLIGHT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR DEEPEST
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH TROWAL WRAPPING BACK
TO THE WEST. ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM WAVES DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MARGINAL WET BULB PROFILES AND PROGRESSION OF DEEPER MOISTURE
PROFILES EAST OF THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE BETTER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DIMINISHES AND AS CONTINUED SHEARED VORTICES DROP INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...WILL OMIT MENTION IN FORECAST AT
THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND SHORT DURATION OF
THIS POTENTIAL. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS/CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
MINS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FLATTER PACIFIC DOMINANT FLOW REGIME EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS DAY TO DAY. MODEST HEIGHT
RISES IN WAKE OF TODAY`S UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO
BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL WORK
QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. LEFTOVER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS. MAY SEE A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW MIX) DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS CONVERGENCE BRIEFLY
INCREASES/DEEPENS ALONG BOUNDARY ON NOSE OF DEVELOPING LLJ...WITH
SOME ADDED ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING LEAD/WEAK/SHEARED MID LEVEL
IMPULSE. SHIFTED AXIS OF HIGHER CHC POPS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FA GIVEN TRENDS IN 12/00Z MODELS. REGARDLESS...EXPECT
ANY RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH NO HYDRO/TRAVEL CONCERNS
ANTICIPATED.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATER
FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO
LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ENOUGH INSOLATION WITH 925
MB TEMPS SURGING TO BTW 10-12C WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE BY LATE IN THE
DAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR INDIANA/OHIO ZONES. THIS WARM UP WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE SHORT
LIVED AS AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED
DEEPENING SFC REFLECTION TRACKING EAST THROUGH MICHIGAN FORCES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST A BROKEN
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONT.
A TREND TOWARD EVEN COLDER TEMPS ANTICIPATED BEHIND A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST FORCING BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A SFC HIGH OF NORTHWEST
CANADA ORIGINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY/COLD CONDITIONS BEFORE A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGS SOME SNOW TO THE AREA AROUND MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LEAD VORT MAX HAS ALLOWED FOR A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. CANNOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN PLUME OF STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING NORTHWARD...BUT POINT PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX
APPEARS POISED TO ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM FAR EASTERN
MISSOURI WHICH COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH A GOOD
PORTION OF MORNING LIKELY BELOW 2000K FT. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WEAKER
SHORT WAVES APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM NORTHERN
STREAM MAY ALLOW SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
417 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
AN ACTIVE SHORT WAVE PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TODAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. SOME WEAK POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN NOTED PER RAP ANALYSES ALONG LOW LEVEL
WARM FRONTAL ZONE...BUT OVERALL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DEPTH HAS
BEEN LACKING WITH THIS LEAD VORT MAX. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOIST
TONGUE WILL BE ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG VORT MAX KICKING OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. A
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OFF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO LIFT INTO THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. COMBINATION OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND NOTABLE
UPPER DVG IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130 KNOT JET CORE NOSING INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
EXPANSION OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH
EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN DYNAMICS/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA GIVEN NORTHEAST TRACK OF EASTERN MISSOURI VORT MAX. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...PREFRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD TEND TO INCREASE FRONTAL
RESPONSE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE...AND GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER DVG FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK...WILL CONTINUE
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL
EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS RANGE...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER DOES APPEAR TO BE IN PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHIFT
EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. DIFFICULT DIURNAL TREND TO RESOLVE
TEMPERATURE WISE TODAY GIVEN EFFECTS FROM PRECIPITATION AND
STRONGER CAA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WARMEST HIGHS AROUND 50
STILL APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS...WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...TRANSITION TO NEUTRAL OR
A SLIGHT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR DEEPEST
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH TROWAL WRAPPING BACK
TO THE WEST. ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM WAVES DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MARGINAL WET BULB PROFILES AND PROGRESSION OF DEEPER MOISTURE
PROFILES EAST OF THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE BETTER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DIMINISHES AND AS CONTINUED SHEARED VORTICES DROP INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...WILL OMIT MENTION IN FORECAST AT
THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND SHORT DURATION OF
THIS POTENTIAL. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS/CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
MINS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FLATTER PACIFIC DOMINANT FLOW REGIME EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS DAY TO DAY. MODEST HEIGHT
RISES IN WAKE OF TODAY`S UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO
BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL WORK
QUICK EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. LEFTOVER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS. MAY SEE A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW MIX) DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS CONVERGENCE BRIEFLY
INCREASES/DEEPENS ALONG BOUNDARY ON NOSE OF DEVELOPING LLJ...WITH
SOME ADDED ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING LEAD/WEAK/SHEARED MID LEVEL
IMPULSE. SHIFTED AXIS OF HIGHER CHC POPS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FA GIVEN TRENDS IN 12/00Z MODELS. REGARDLESS...EXPECT
ANY RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH NO HYDRO/TRAVEL CONCERNS
ANTICIPATED.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATER
FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO
LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ENOUGH INSOLATION WITH 925
MB TEMPS SURGING TO BTW 10-12C WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE BY LATE IN THE
DAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR INDIANA/OHIO ZONES. THIS WARM UP WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE SHORT
LIVED AS AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED
DEEPENING SFC REFLECTION TRACKING EAST THROUGH MICHIGAN FORCES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST A BROKEN
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONT.
A TREND TOWARD EVEN COLDER TEMPS ANTICIPATED BEHIND A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST FORCING BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A SFC HIGH OF NORTHWEST
CANADA ORIGINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY/COLD CONDITIONS BEFORE A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGS SOME SNOW TO THE AREA AROUND MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CIGS HAVE
TRENDED TO MVFR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MAY TEND TO SEE PERIODIC TRANSITIONS TO
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS INITIAL ADVECTION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED TREND OF PREVIOUS
TAFS IN MORE SOLID MVFR CIGS AFTER 10Z AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE AREA. AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA THROUGH 09Z WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH IN TERMS OF DEPTH OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER 10Z. POCKET OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ADVECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WILL PROVIDE SOME ISOLD
THUNDER POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY IN THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME. HAVE
CONTINUED TO OMIT THUNDER MENTION FROM THE 06Z TAFS DUE TO LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DIFFICULTY IN TIMING 1 TO 2 HR PERIODS OF
GREATEST POTENTIAL. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED LLWS MENTION FROM THE 06Z-
11Z TIMEFRAME AS LOW LEVEL RAMPS UP AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM. BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY BEHIND COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION...WITH MAIN CENTER ACROSS SW
KS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOMINATED BY RIDING...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS/POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY. THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING DUE TO MELTING
SNOW...BUT WITH AIR MASS ALOFT WARMING THE TEMP TREND HAS BEEN
POSITIVE. I WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS...OTHERWISE AFTERNOON FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. WE COULD STILL SEE A SMALL AREA OF EASTERN RED
WILLOW/NORTHERN NORTON COUNTY IMPACTED BY SNOW PACK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (WHERE AMOUNTS 5-6" FELL)...OTHERWISE THIS SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WAA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH GOOD MIXING WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S (POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IN THE WEST). LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD
ALSO MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES WELL
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR CWA (MINIMAL SURFACE GRADIENT) WE WILL NEED WINDS ALOFT
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE MUCH OTHER THAN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. THERE IS A LACK OF UNIDIRECTIONAL
GRADIENT ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A VERTICAL THERMAL
GRADIENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS I AM WONDERING IF MODEL WINDS ARE TOO
STRONG ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON GUSTS IS EVEN SMALLER. I
DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH (ASSUMING
MODEL WINDS ALOFT ARE RIGHT) DUE TO THE FAVORABLE MIXING...BUT I
DOUBT THIS WOULD BE FOR 3HR IF IT DID OCCUR. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
RECENT SNOW MELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND MARGINAL WINDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA I AM NOT PLANNING A RFW AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
THIS FAR SOUTH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 09Z-12Z.
SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH AT 20-25 KNOTS FRIDAY...
PER THE HIGHER WIND SPEED SOLUTIONS PRESENTED BY THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER FROM THURSDAY
DUE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH 250 MB JET CORE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT
SOME UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND POSITION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET. EXPECT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY BY 12Z SATURDAY.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT KEEPING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE DAY. BASED ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES...PLACED
A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE MORNING...
BECOMING ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED OVER THE AREA...BUT A
COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SO...EXPECT DRY WEATHER...BUT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A VERY AMPLIFIED 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS OR THEIR INTENSITIES. FOR NOW...KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WEST COAST RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES
EAST BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. W-SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF GUSTS 15-20KT WITH DAYTIME
MIXING...QUICKLY DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1236 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION...WITH MAIN CENTER ACROSS SW
KS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOMINATED BY RIDING...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS/POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY. THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING DUE TO MELTING
SNOW...BUT WITH AIR MASS ALOFT WARMING THE TEMP TREND HAS BEEN
POSITIVE. I WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS...OTHERWISE AFTERNOON FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. WE COULD STILL SEE A SMALL AREA OF EASTERN RED
WILLOW/NORTHERN NORTON COUNTY IMPACTED BY SNOW PACK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (WHERE AMOUNTS 5-6" FELL)...OTHERWISE THIS SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW (GOOD WAA) WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH GOOD MIXING WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S (POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IN THE WEST). LOW TD VALUES
SHOULD ALSO MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES WELL
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR CWA (MINIMAL SURFACE GRADIENT) WE WILL NEED WINDS ALOFT TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE MUCH OTHER THAN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. THERE IS A LACK OF UNIDIRECTIONAL
GRADIENT ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A VERTICAL THERMAL
GRADIENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS I AM WONDERING IF MODEL WINDS ARE TOO
STRONG ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON GUSTS IS EVEN SMALLER. I DO
NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH
(ASSUMING MODEL WINDS ALOFT ARE RIGHT) DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
MIXING...BUT I DOUBT THIS WOULD BE FOR 3HR IF IT DID OCCUR. TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT RECENT SNOW MELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND MARGINAL
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA I AM NOT PLANNING A RFW AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE
INVERSION WILL PREVENT THE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN UNTIL MID
MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE AREA THE WINDS WILL DECLINE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE
FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 500MB JET WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA...WITH THE MAIN JET NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS DISAGREE WHEN A
700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT. AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES SATURATED. WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
FROM THE 500MB JET OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS LIFT FROM THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LOW PRECIP.
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A RESULT. WILL HAVE
THE PRECIP. CHANCES GOING FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...MOSTLY SNOW. GUIDANCE CAME IN A
BIT STRONGER WITH PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...INCLUDING THE PREVIOUS OUTLIER GFS/GEFS COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS
ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. ECMWF HAS THIS TROUGH FURTHEST NORTH...GEM IN THE
MIDDLE...AND GFS FARTHER SOUTH AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT LIFT IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS IS SLOWER TO SATURATE LOWER LEVELS THAN GEM/ECMWF...BUT
EITHER WAY TOTAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY MONDAY...BUT A THIS POINT
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED. AS WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE WET THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...WITH MDL ECMWF MOS PRODUCING POP
GUIDANCE OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. W-SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF GUSTS 15-20KT WITH DAYTIME
MIXING...QUICKLY DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM/JTL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1230 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
Models this morning are in good agreement with moving the upper
level trough east into central Kansas early this evening. The
better upper level dynamics will also begin to shift east as a
secondary surface boundary surges south across western Kansas
late this afternoon. As this boundary moves across southwest
Kansas, northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph will continue as low
level moisture increases. Given the timing of the exiting upper
level trough and increasing low level moisture will retain small
precipitation chances across north central Kansas early this
evening. Further south will keep an increase in clouds early this
evening but will not mention precipitation chances at this time.
Wind speeds across southeast Colorado earlier this afternoon have
on occasion approached high wind warning criteria. Visibilities
where these stronger winds were reported have been lowered to one
mile or less due to blowing dust. 12z NAM and 17z RAP indicated
the tightest surface pressure gradient along with the strongest
925mb to 850mb winds between 21z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday will be
near the Colorado border with the mean mixdown winds suggesting
sustained winds of near high wind warning criteria. Based on that
the models continue to suggest winds will be near High wind
warning criteria late today in far southwest Kansas and the 18z
wind speeds/gusts across southeast Colorado will continue the high
wind warning west of highway 83. Will also mention visibility
issues due to blowing dust. Further east will keep the wind
advisory going until 02z.
Surface ridge axis will then begin to build across western Kansas
towards 06z as the upper level trough moves from eastern Kansas
into Missouri. Given the cloud cover overnight along with wind
speeds of 10 to 15 mph the previous forecast still looks on track
with lows mainly in the mid to upper 20s
Westerly downslope flow will improve across western Kansas on
Wednesday with 925mb temperatures warmer around 6c from 00z
Wednesday to 00z Thursday. 850mb temperature trends over the same
time frame be +3c to +5c. Based on this warming trend and mostly
sunny conditions the highs mid week should easily rebound to near
60 degrees for much of western Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
Lee troughing will develop Thursday ahead of the next upper level
system entering the northern Rockies, leading to south winds and warmer
temperatures. After this system traverses the northern plains on
Friday, a cold front will pass through western Kansas in its wake,
leading to falling high temperatures into the 60s Friday and 50s
Saturday. As the cool air gets deeper by Saturday night, mid level
isentropic lift may result in some light rain or light snow,
especially over far southwestern Kansas. Temperatures Sunday will
still be seasonably cool, with highs in the lower 50s.
A slight warming trend can be expected Sunday (highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s) as a weak lee trough develops ahead of the next
upper level trough. This system will push yet another cold front
through western Kansas by later Monday, with a return of cooler than
average high and low temperatures by Monday night and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
Gusty northwest winds at Hays will diminish by 09z with winds at
all the TAF sites in central and southwest Kansas continuing from
the northwest at around 12 knots through the mid afternoon hours.
Winds will become light and variable by late afternoon. VFR skies
and visibilities will prevail.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 32 71 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 31 70 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 33 72 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 32 72 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 31 70 36 58 / 0 0 0 0
P28 34 72 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1058 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE AREA AND ALL ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN DROPPED AN HOUR EARLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO
FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MADE SOME LARGE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST TO ADJUST WIND
SPEEDS DOWN AS WIDESPREAD WARNING CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
2 HOURS AND DESPITE THE WET SNOW...SIG BLOWING SNOW OBSERVED WHEN
GUSTS EXCEED 40 KTS AT KGLD. ALTHOUGH LARGE AREA OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING IN ITS
WAKE...RECENTLY OBSERVED VISIBILITIES AND OVERALL IMPACT LEADS ME
TO CHANGE AREA TO A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM HIGH WIND WARNING
THROUGH 03Z. SIG SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 455 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY/BLOWING SNOW CAUSING SOME LOW
VISIBILITIES IN SEVERAL AREAS...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THIS IN
CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING PER COORDINATION EARLIER TODAY AND NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. WHILE WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RISE AND VERY SPORADIC...STARTING TO SEE A LOT OF
CONVECTIVE TYPE SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEAR TERM MODELED SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WITH STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC IN THIS AREA...EXPECT STRONG
WINDS TO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AS OPPOSED TO A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND TYPE EVENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AT 19Z UPPER LOW CENTERED ON
TOP OF GOODLAND WITH STRONGEST SFC WIND GUSTS GENERALLY WEST OF A
LINE FROM FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON WHERE GUSTS IN OUR PART OF THE AREA
APPROACHING 50 MPH WHILE JUST OUTSIDE OF IT GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
BEING REPORTED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST REACHING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND 00Z THEN WEAKENING A BIT
AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. STRONGEST SFC WINDS
AND GUSTS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST BEHIND THE UPPER LOW SO
NO CHANGES TO HIGH WIND WARNING. 18Z RUC SHOWS 850-800MB WINDS
ACTUALLY INCREASING ON THE BACKSIDE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNSET OUT EAST
WHICH IS WHERE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST SO FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE.
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED BAND OF SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. AM EXPECTING THE WORST
CONDITIONS PRESENTLY IN EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE) BY
23Z CONTINUING EAST AND INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WILL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
UNDER QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
(WEST TO EAST).
WEDNESDAY...CLOUDINESS INCREASES A BIT AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOW 50S TO NEAR 60 (WEST TO
EAST).
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 50S. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
WINDS...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF OF OUR CWA AND SEND REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COOLER TEMPS INTO THE PLAINS. THESE QUICK MOVING FEATURES ARE ON
LESS THAN IDEAL TRACKS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE RUN-RUN ON EVOLUTION OF
THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES. BEST MODEL OVERLAP SEEMS TO BE ON PRECIP
CHANCES SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS WOULD STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND IN
THIS PATTERN/THIS RANGE I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS.
TEMPS SHOULD START OUT BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY (40S) BEFORE SEASONAL
TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY (50S). BY NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER
THE CWA BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE LATER
PERIODS CONSIDERING THE MODEL SPREAD/LACK OF CONTINUITY...SO
DECIDED AGAINST MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM
DEPARTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
549 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING. ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG U.S. 10 NEAR BALDWIN AND REED CITY. IT WILL TURN
COLDER AND BREEZY TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
TAKES AIM ON THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NO
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT WILL GRADUALLY TURN COLDER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS COLDER
AIR SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE GRAND RIVER FOR KENT AND OTTAWA
COUNTIES. ICE ON THE MOVE WITH AT LEAST ONE JAM REPORTED UPSTREAM
OF ADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERTAINS TO THE EXIT OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THE AFFECTS OF THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.
AS FOR TONIGHT...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP
AS WELL AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD SAY ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEAVING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM RETURNS TO WORK THROUGH. THE MODELS DO
SHOW A BIT OF LOW LEVEL LIFT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH IS LIKELY
DUE TO FRICTIONAL PILLING UP OF THE WIND. LAST FEW FRAMES OF KGRR
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SOME RETURNS OFF THE LAKE OVER OTTAWA AND ALLEGAN
COUNTIES. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT PRECIP IS
GENERATED OFF THE LAKE BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. DELTA T/S ONLY
RISE TO AROUND 10C BY MORNING. MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. HAVE HIGH POPS CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z...BUT TAPER
THEM BACK THEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE AT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP
ALONG U.S. 10.
DENSE FOG FORMED MIDDAY IN AN AREA OF SLACK WINDS AS THE LOW MOVED
THROUGH. MOST OF THIS HAS LIFTED WITH ONLY BIG RAPIDS AT A QUARTER.
WILL HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE ENDING AS WINDS PICK UP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
SPEAKING OF WINDS...IT WILL GET BREEZY TONIGHT WITH 15 TO 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
THINKING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE
12Z ECMWF ON KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA WHICH IS
CURRENTLY UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED ON THE
EXACT PATH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS IT ZIPS EAST IN THE ZONAL
FLOW. HAVE RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. THE PRECIP WILL
TREND TOWARD RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BACK TO SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR THE LONG TERM IS THAT THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPS
DROP DOWN TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS AND WE WILL SEE UNSETTLED WX
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE
WILL HAVE ANY MAJOR STORMS IMPACT THE AREA FROM SAT THROUGH NEXT
WED.
THE TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THIS SAT. COOLER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRI/FRI NIGHT SYSTEM. WE
SHOULD SEE A BREAK A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON SAT BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONGER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CHC FOR SOME SNOW LATE SAT AND CONTINUE THEM INTO SUN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT COMING FROM THE NORTH. ANY
DECENT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED UP WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE.
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PCPN FOR LATE SUN THROUGH THE DAY
ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FROM SAT NIGHT. SNOW CHCS WILL
INCREASE THEN ONCE AGAIN...AND ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. THE MORE IMPORTANT THING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IT WILL HELP
TO ESTABLISH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE ERN U.S.. THE UPPER
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL BE COMING FROM NEAR SIBERIA AND THE ARCTIC AS
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR STRONG ALASKA/WRN COAST UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL REVISIT
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF OF THE LONG TERM...AND MOST LIKELY MANY
DAYS BEYOND THE CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THE WORST IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS WILL COME IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE 18Z FCST. RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ARE IN THE
BEGINNING STAGES OF MOVING OUT. LOW CIGS AND VSBYS ARE IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AT KGRR AND KMKG CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
STORM SYSTEM AND UNDER WEAK WINDS. IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS BEFORE
CIGS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SLOW AND
GRADUAL.
ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. WE EXPECT PCPN TO END AT MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KMKG. THEY WILL
SEE THE DIMINISHING PCPN STARTING TO MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. WINDS WILL BEGIN GUSTING FROM THE WEST
UP TO 20-25 KNOTS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO THE HIGHER MVFR CATEGORY. WE EXPECT
CIGS TO SCATTER OUT LATE THU MORNING/THU AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LARGE CHUNKS OF ICE WERE ON THE MOVE AROUND COMSTOCK PARK AND AN
ICE JAM WAS REPORTED UPSTREAM OF THE THORNAPPLE ENTRY ON THE GRAND
IN ADA. WATER WAS RISING BEHIND THE JAM. WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS. CLOSE MONITORING WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MIZ056-057.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING. ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG U.S. 10 NEAR BALDWIN AND REED CITY. IT WILL TURN
COLDER AND BREEZY TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
TAKES AIM ON THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NO
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT WILL GRADUALLY TURN COLDER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS COLDER
AIR SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERTAINS TO THE EXIT OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THE AFFECTS OF THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.
AS FOR TONIGHT...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP
AS WELL AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD SAY ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEAVING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM RETURNS TO WORK THROUGH. THE MODELS DO
SHOW A BIT OF LOW LEVEL LIFT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH IS LIKELY
DUE TO FRICTIONAL PILLING UP OF THE WIND. LAST FEW FRAMES OF KGRR
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SOME RETURNS OFF THE LAKE OVER OTTAWA AND ALLEGAN
COUNTIES. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT PRECIP IS
GENERATED OFF THE LAKE BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. DELTA T/S ONLY
RISE TO AROUND 10C BY MORNING. MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. HAVE HIGH POPS CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z...BUT TAPER
THEM BACK THEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE AT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP
ALONG U.S. 10.
DENSE FOG FORMED MIDDAY IN AN AREA OF SLACK WINDS AS THE LOW MOVED
THROUGH. MOST OF THIS HAS LIFTED WITH ONLY BIG RAPIDS AT A QUARTER.
WILL HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE ENDING AS WINDS PICK UP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
SPEAKING OF WINDS...IT WILL GET BREEZY TONIGHT WITH 15 TO 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
THINKING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE
12Z ECMWF ON KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA WHICH IS
CURRENTLY UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED ON THE
EXACT PATH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS IT ZIPS EAST IN THE ZONAL
FLOW. HAVE RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. THE PRECIP WILL
TREND TOWARD RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BACK TO SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR THE LONG TERM IS THAT THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPS
DROP DOWN TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS AND WE WILL SEE UNSETTLED WX
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE
WILL HAVE ANY MAJOR STORMS IMPACT THE AREA FROM SAT THROUGH NEXT
WED.
THE TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THIS SAT. COOLER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRI/FRI NIGHT SYSTEM. WE
SHOULD SEE A BREAK A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON SAT BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONGER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CHC FOR SOME SNOW LATE SAT AND CONTINUE THEM INTO SUN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT COMING FROM THE NORTH. ANY
DECENT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED UP WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE.
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PCPN FOR LATE SUN THROUGH THE DAY
ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FROM SAT NIGHT. SNOW CHCS WILL
INCREASE THEN ONCE AGAIN...AND ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. THE MORE IMPORTANT THING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IT WILL HELP
TO ESTABLISH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE ERN U.S.. THE UPPER
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL BE COMING FROM NEAR SIBERIA AND THE ARCTIC AS
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR STRONG ALASKA/WRN COAST UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL REVISIT
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF OF THE LONG TERM...AND MOST LIKELY MANY
DAYS BEYOND THE CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THE WORST IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS WILL COME IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE 18Z FCST. RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ARE IN THE
BEGINNING STAGES OF MOVING OUT. LOW CIGS AND VSBYS ARE IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AT KGRR AND KMKG CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
STORM SYSTEM AND UNDER WEAK WINDS. IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS BEFORE
CIGS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SLOW AND
GRADUAL.
ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. WE EXPECT PCPN TO END AT MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KMKG. THEY WILL
SEE THE DIMINISHING PCPN STARTING TO MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. WINDS WILL BEGIN GUSTING FROM THE WEST
UP TO 20-25 KNOTS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO THE HIGHER MVFR CATEGORY. WE EXPECT
CIGS TO SCATTER OUT LATE THU MORNING/THU AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
SNOWMELT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIVERS MAINTAINING A
STEADY RISE. MANY LOCATIONS ON THE GRAND WILL BE BETWEEN BANKFULL
AND FLOOD STAGE (IF NOT ALREADY) WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS NO MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOODING IS FORESEEN ON THE GRAND
OR OUR OTHER FORECAST POINTS WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES (IE. ALONG THE
THORNAPPLE, RED CEDAR, LOOKING GLASS, SYCAMORE CREEK, AND MAPLE
RIVER). SO...AT THIS POINT WE EXPECT CONTINUED RISES BUT NO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ALONG THE RIVERS.
WITH A DECREASING SNOWPACK...THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE
DECREASING AS WELL...ROUGHLY ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE
GRAND RIVER IN PARTICULAR. SO...A CONTINUED SLOW MELT OFF ALONG WITH
A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS PREVENTING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOOD SITUATION FROM OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
154 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN LOWER...WITH MAINLY SNOW
FOR UPPER MICHIGAN. COOLER AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO
SNOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO AN END ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
AREA REPORTS COMING IN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ARE THAT
ROADS ARE MUCH IMPROVED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...AS TEMPERATURES
CREEP UP TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING. MEANWHILE...LIGHT TO MODERATE AT
TIMES SNOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN UPPER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM (CURRENTLY RIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOWER). THUS FAR LOOKING AT SURROUNDING
RADARS...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE
TO DETERMINE IF THIS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TO WARRANT ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES THAN THE ONES
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY PAST THE CURRENT
EXPIRATION TIME OF MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
VERY BUSY MORNING SO FAR TRYING TO DECIPHER PRECIPITATION TYPES
AND IMPACTS. LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE LOW IS GOING TO END UP BEING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WHERE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...ALBEIT BY
MAYBE 25 MILES OR SO. HOWEVER...THIS LITTLE DEVIATION IN TRACK HAS
HUGE FORECAST IMPLICATIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND
TEMPERATURES TO A CERTAIN DEGREE WHICH IS ALSO HUGE DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY AROUND FREEZING. LUCKILY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A LOT
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOSTLY
UNTAPPED. HAVE NUDGED SNOW/SLEET FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS HELD
ONTO FREEZING RAIN FOR A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTH AS
WELL AS LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY AN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 3 DEGREES.
HAVE BEEN HANDLING SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS WITH SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS THUS FAR AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A
WHILE BUT MAY EVENTUALLY END UP ISSUING WINTER HEADLINES DEPENDING
UPON HOW THINGS EVOLVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THIN CORRIDOR OF LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD UP INTO NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...SLIGHTLY AHEAD SCHEDULE.
HAVE TWEAKED FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. PRECIP IS LIGHT...BUT MAY BE
PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT ICING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
WHERE TEMPS ARE LESS THAN 32F. HAVE ISSUED SPS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
...MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TODAY THEN BACK TO SNOW
OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS AS OF 08Z. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEARLY CLOSED-OFF
LOWER LEVEL (H8-H7) CIRCULATION NEAR THE IOWA/WISCONSIN BORDER WITH
AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS AND SPOTTY PRECIP (SNOW) STRETCHING
FROM IOWA INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER
DEFINED AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER PRECIP NOTED ACROSS ILLINOIS
CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC LOW AND LEAD VORTICITY MAX. THUS FAR...
DESPITE HOW WELL DEFINED THIS SYSTEM IS...GOOD MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
GULF IS DEFINITELY ON THE LACKING SIDE OF THINGS AS EVIDENCED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE GULF LARGELY IN THE 40S AND A LACK OF ANY WELL
DEFINED "WARM CONVEYOR" BELT STRETCHING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE FOR A WAVE LIKE THIS.
TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING BEFORE TRAVERSING THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO THE THIS EVENING. SFC LOW
TRACK...PRETTY MUCH ALL RECENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS (NAM/GFS/GEM/EURO/
UKMET) ARE IN DECENT LOCK STEP AND HAVE ALL TRENDED THE SFC LOW
TRACK JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
ESSENTIALLY UP THROUGH LUDINGTON TO HOUGHTON LAKE TO ALPENA INTO
LAKE HURON BY 00Z. BIGGEST IMPLICATION OF COURSE RESTS WITH PRECIP
TYPE AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST SIMPLY DOES NOT PUSH AS FAR NORTH
AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. STILL...HIGH RESOLUTION RUC AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO STILL PUSH A MODEST ELEVATED WARM NOSE (+1 TO
+2C) AROUND 900 MB AS FAR NORTH AS THE TIP OF THE MITT (ALREADY HAD
IT YESTERDAY EVENING PER 00Z APX SOUNDING) WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING MAINTAINS OR PUSHES SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
TODAY. SO...I THINK THE OVERALL LAYOUT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL
PRETTY GOOD WITH ALL SNOW IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/RAIN-SNOW-SLEET
OVER A CHUNK OF NRN LOWER PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
RAIN M-72 SOUTH...WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DON/T THINK THAT
ICING WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THIS GO AROUND AS SFC TEMPS WILL WARM
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE FREEZING WHERE LIQUID PRECIP WILL FALL AND NOW
THAT A GOOD PORTION OF AREA ROADWAYS HAVE LOST THE SNOW PACK IN
RECENT DAYS.
TONIGHT...CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO
CANADA WHILE TYPICAL WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND PRECIP SWINGS UP THROUGH NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE CWA AS COLDER AIR COLLAPSES BACK THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP MAY HANG ON IN THE SE COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. DOESN/T GET COLD ENOUGH TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE TRUE SENSE OF BANDED NW FLOW LAKE SNOWS. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL WITHIN GUIDANCE OF GETTING A BIT OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT HANGS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NW
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. TERRAIN MAY ALSO HELP
THINGS OUT AS WELL...AND WE COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE
NUDGED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A LITTLE TO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. BUT
DAY CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL AND DECIDE IF A
HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS AND A HEADLINE IS WARRANTED.
SO NEXT QUESTION BECOMES...WHAT SORT OF HEADLINE CHANGES DO WE NEED.
AS ELUDED TO EARLIER...THUS FAR I/M UNIMPRESSED BY THE MOISTURE FEED
INTO THIS SYSTEM AND THE TOTAL PRECIP THIS SYSTEM IS/WILL ACTUALLY
PRODUCE. U.S. RADAR MOSAIC BEARS THIS OUT WITH A DEFINITIVE LACK OF
A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND OVERALL MEAGER UPSTREAM PRECIP TOTALS THUS
FAR DESPITE ITS GREAT DYNAMICS. SURE...THERE IS A NICE INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY NOW PUSHING UP THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN AHEAD
OF LEAD VORTICITY CENTER THAT WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND
SNOWFALL SLIDING UP THROUGH NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. BUT SO FAR IT/S NOT SHAPING UP TO BE
A BIG HITTER IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT.
SO...IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...HAVE LOWERED OVERALL SNOWFALL JUST
A LITTLE. BUT STILL THINK A GOOD 2 TO MAYBE 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THERE TODAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. AND GIVEN THIS WILL BE
A WETTER/HEAVIER SNOW...WILL LEAVE THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ALONE FOR NOW.
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AGAIN...DON/T THINK ICING WILL BE A BIG ISSUE
TODAY ALTHOUGH MIXY PRECIP EARLY ON COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT. BUT EVEN SO I ONLY HAVE UP
TO 3 INCHES IN THERE NOW. THUS...NOT PLANNING ANY HEADLINES FOR NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN JUST YET. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING TO ADDRESS MIXED PRECIP ISSUES AND
SLICK TRAVEL POSSIBILITIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
WEATHER IMPACTS: GENERALLY MINOR. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH THURSDAY. MODERATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
EXPECTED WEATHER EVOLUTION: THURSDAY...POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE /ESPECIALLY
EARLY THURSDAY/ DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE ABOVE OTHERWISE SHALLOW INVERSION. WITH ONLY MINOR LAKE
CONTRIBUTIONS /H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C/ AND A RAPID DECREASE IN
MOISTURE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF NEW
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY FAVORED SECTIONS OF NW LOWER. THE
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO FLURRIES AS SURFACE RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...AND RESULT IN AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS /WENT SEVERAL DEG BELOW
GUIDANCE/.
FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WNW BY LATE IN THE DAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FROM MN ARROWHEAD INTO THE U.P. BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF SYSTEM. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NW LOWER AND E
UPPER AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSH EWD. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SAME OLD STORY.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY /SOME 10-20F/ BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS...THANKS TO PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA AND UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ALONG WEST COAST. AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE VERY COLD AIR
SPILLS SWD ACROSS REGION SUNDAY /FEATURING H8 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN
NEAR -20C/. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED COLD BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS /WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED/. THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD /SNOW AND POSSIBLY
WIND/ ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS
SEWD OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
CEILINGS BELOW FL008 AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO UNDER 2SM IN FOG
AND MIST. ANY MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL TURN OVER TO TO ALL
SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK INTO THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
LATE TODAY AND BE GUSTY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD...REDUCING VISIBILITIES WITH FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.
CEILINGS WILL FINALLY BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND HOLD STRONG INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ008-
015.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...AS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1033 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN LOWER...WITH MAINLY SNOW
FOR UPPER MICHIGAN. COOLER AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO
SNOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO AN END ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
VERY BUSY MORNING SO FAR TRYING TO DECIPHER PRECIPITATION TYPES
AND IMPACTS. LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE LOW IS GOING TO END UP BEING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WHERE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...ALBEIT BY
MAYBE 25 MILES OR SO. HOWEVER...THIS LITTLE DEVIATION IN TRACK HAS
HUGE FORECAST IMPLICATIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND
TEMPERATURES TO A CERTAIN DEGREE WHICH IS ALSO HUGE DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY AROUND FREEZING. LUCKILY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A LOT
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOSTLY
UNTAPPED. HAVE NUDGED SNOW/SLEET FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS HELD
ONTO FREEZING RAIN FOR A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTH AS
WELL AS LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY AN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 3 DEGREES.
HAVE BEEN HANDLING SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS WITH SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS THUS FAR AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A
WHILE BUT MAY EVENTUALLY END UP ISSUING WINTER HEADLINES DEPENDING
UPON HOW THINGS EVOLVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THIN CORRIDOR OF LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD UP INTO NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...SLIGHTLY AHEAD SCHEDULE.
HAVE TWEAKED FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. PRECIP IS LIGHT...BUT MAY BE
PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT ICING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
WHERE TEMPS ARE LESS THAN 32F. HAVE ISSUED SPS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
...MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TODAY THEN BACK TO SNOW
OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS AS OF 08Z. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEARLY CLOSED-OFF
LOWER LEVEL (H8-H7) CIRCULATION NEAR THE IOWA/WISCONSIN BORDER WITH
AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS AND SPOTTY PRECIP (SNOW) STRETCHING
FROM IOWA INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER
DEFINED AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER PRECIP NOTED ACROSS ILLINOIS
CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC LOW AND LEAD VORTICITY MAX. THUS FAR...
DESPITE HOW WELL DEFINED THIS SYSTEM IS...GOOD MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
GULF IS DEFINITELY ON THE LACKING SIDE OF THINGS AS EVIDENCED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE GULF LARGELY IN THE 40S AND A LACK OF ANY WELL
DEFINED "WARM CONVEYOR" BELT STRETCHING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE FOR A WAVE LIKE THIS.
TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING BEFORE TRAVERSING THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO THE THIS EVENING. SFC LOW
TRACK...PRETTY MUCH ALL RECENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS (NAM/GFS/GEM/EURO/
UKMET) ARE IN DECENT LOCK STEP AND HAVE ALL TRENDED THE SFC LOW
TRACK JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
ESSENTIALLY UP THROUGH LUDINGTON TO HOUGHTON LAKE TO ALPENA INTO
LAKE HURON BY 00Z. BIGGEST IMPLICATION OF COURSE RESTS WITH PRECIP
TYPE AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST SIMPLY DOES NOT PUSH AS FAR NORTH
AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. STILL...HIGH RESOLUTION RUC AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO STILL PUSH A MODEST ELEVATED WARM NOSE (+1 TO
+2C) AROUND 900 MB AS FAR NORTH AS THE TIP OF THE MITT (ALREADY HAD
IT YESTERDAY EVENING PER 00Z APX SOUNDING) WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING MAINTAINS OR PUSHES SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
TODAY. SO...I THINK THE OVERALL LAYOUT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL
PRETTY GOOD WITH ALL SNOW IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/RAIN-SNOW-SLEET
OVER A CHUNK OF NRN LOWER PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
RAIN M-72 SOUTH...WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DON/T THINK THAT
ICING WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THIS GO AROUND AS SFC TEMPS WILL WARM
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE FREEZING WHERE LIQUID PRECIP WILL FALL AND NOW
THAT A GOOD PORTION OF AREA ROADWAYS HAVE LOST THE SNOW PACK IN
RECENT DAYS.
TONIGHT...CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO
CANADA WHILE TYPICAL WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND PRECIP SWINGS UP THROUGH NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE CWA AS COLDER AIR COLLAPSES BACK THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP MAY HANG ON IN THE SE COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. DOESN/T GET COLD ENOUGH TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE TRUE SENSE OF BANDED NW FLOW LAKE SNOWS. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL WITHIN GUIDANCE OF GETTING A BIT OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT HANGS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NW
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. TERRAIN MAY ALSO HELP
THINGS OUT AS WELL...AND WE COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE
NUDGED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A LITTLE TO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. BUT
DAY CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL AND DECIDE IF A
HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS AND A HEADLINE IS WARRANTED.
SO NEXT QUESTION BECOMES...WHAT SORT OF HEADLINE CHANGES DO WE NEED.
AS ELUDED TO EARLIER...THUS FAR I/M UNIMPRESSED BY THE MOISTURE FEED
INTO THIS SYSTEM AND THE TOTAL PRECIP THIS SYSTEM IS/WILL ACTUALLY
PRODUCE. U.S. RADAR MOSAIC BEARS THIS OUT WITH A DEFINITIVE LACK OF
A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND OVERALL MEAGER UPSTREAM PRECIP TOTALS THUS
FAR DESPITE ITS GREAT DYNAMICS. SURE...THERE IS A NICE INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY NOW PUSHING UP THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN AHEAD
OF LEAD VORTICITY CENTER THAT WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND
SNOWFALL SLIDING UP THROUGH NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. BUT SO FAR IT/S NOT SHAPING UP TO BE
A BIG HITTER IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT.
SO...IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...HAVE LOWERED OVERALL SNOWFALL JUST
A LITTLE. BUT STILL THINK A GOOD 2 TO MAYBE 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THERE TODAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. AND GIVEN THIS WILL BE
A WETTER/HEAVIER SNOW...WILL LEAVE THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ALONE FOR NOW.
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AGAIN...DON/T THINK ICING WILL BE A BIG ISSUE
TODAY ALTHOUGH MIXY PRECIP EARLY ON COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT. BUT EVEN SO I ONLY HAVE UP
TO 3 INCHES IN THERE NOW. THUS...NOT PLANNING ANY HEADLINES FOR NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN JUST YET. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING TO ADDRESS MIXED PRECIP ISSUES AND
SLICK TRAVEL POSSIBILITIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
WEATHER IMPACTS: GENERALLY MINOR. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH THURSDAY. MODERATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
EXPECTED WEATHER EVOLUTION: THURSDAY...POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE /ESPECIALLY
EARLY THURSDAY/ DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE ABOVE OTHERWISE SHALLOW INVERSION. WITH ONLY MINOR LAKE
CONTRIBUTIONS /H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C/ AND A RAPID DECREASE IN
MOISTURE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF NEW
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY FAVORED SECTIONS OF NW LOWER. THE
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO FLURRIES AS SURFACE RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...AND RESULT IN AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS /WENT SEVERAL DEG BELOW
GUIDANCE/.
FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WNW BY LATE IN THE DAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FROM MN ARROWHEAD INTO THE U.P. BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF SYSTEM. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NW LOWER AND E
UPPER AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSH EWD. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SAME OLD STORY.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY /SOME 10-20F/ BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS...THANKS TO PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA AND UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ALONG WEST COAST. AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE VERY COLD AIR
SPILLS SWD ACROSS REGION SUNDAY /FEATURING H8 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN
NEAR -20C/. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED COLD BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS /WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED/. THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD /SNOW AND POSSIBLY
WIND/ ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS
SEWD OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 909 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW FL010 AND VISIBILITIES
REDUCED TO UNDER 3SM IN SNOW. MBL AND TVC SHOULD SEE RAIN...APN -FZRA
CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AND -SN AT PLN.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS
FOR ALL TAF SITES. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY...REDUCING VISIBILITIES WITH FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. CEILINGS WILL FINALLY BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ008-
015.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
921 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN LOWER...WITH MAINLY SNOW
FOR UPPER MICHIGAN. COOLER AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO
SNOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO AN END ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THIN CORRIDOR OF LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD UP INTO NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...SLIGHTLY AHEAD SCHEDULE.
HAVE TWEAKED FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. PRECIP IS LIGHT...BUT MAY BE
PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT ICING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
WHERE TEMPS ARE LESS THAN 32F. HAVE ISSUED SPS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
...MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TODAY THEN BACK TO SNOW
OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS AS OF 08Z. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEARLY CLOSED-OFF
LOWER LEVEL (H8-H7) CIRCULATION NEAR THE IOWA/WISCONSIN BORDER WITH
AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS AND SPOTTY PRECIP (SNOW) STRETCHING
FROM IOWA INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER
DEFINED AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER PRECIP NOTED ACROSS ILLINOIS
CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC LOW AND LEAD VORTICITY MAX. THUS FAR...
DESPITE HOW WELL DEFINED THIS SYSTEM IS...GOOD MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
GULF IS DEFINITELY ON THE LACKING SIDE OF THINGS AS EVIDENCED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE GULF LARGELY IN THE 40S AND A LACK OF ANY WELL
DEFINED "WARM CONVEYOR" BELT STRETCHING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE FOR A WAVE LIKE THIS.
TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING BEFORE TRAVERSING THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO THE THIS EVENING. SFC LOW
TRACK...PRETTY MUCH ALL RECENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS (NAM/GFS/GEM/EURO/
UKMET) ARE IN DECENT LOCK STEP AND HAVE ALL TRENDED THE SFC LOW
TRACK JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
ESSENTIALLY UP THROUGH LUDINGTON TO HOUGHTON LAKE TO ALPENA INTO
LAKE HURON BY 00Z. BIGGEST IMPLICATION OF COURSE RESTS WITH PRECIP
TYPE AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST SIMPLY DOES NOT PUSH AS FAR NORTH
AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. STILL...HIGH RESOLUTION RUC AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO STILL PUSH A MODEST ELEVATED WARM NOSE (+1 TO
+2C) AROUND 900 MB AS FAR NORTH AS THE TIP OF THE MITT (ALREADY HAD
IT YESTERDAY EVENING PER 00Z APX SOUNDING) WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING MAINTAINS OR PUSHES SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
TODAY. SO...I THINK THE OVERALL LAYOUT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL
PRETTY GOOD WITH ALL SNOW IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/RAIN-SNOW-SLEET
OVER A CHUNK OF NRN LOWER PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
RAIN M-72 SOUTH...WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DON/T THINK THAT
ICING WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THIS GO AROUND AS SFC TEMPS WILL WARM
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE FREEZING WHERE LIQUID PRECIP WILL FALL AND NOW
THAT A GOOD PORTION OF AREA ROADWAYS HAVE LOST THE SNOW PACK IN
RECENT DAYS.
TONIGHT...CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO
CANADA WHILE TYPICAL WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND PRECIP SWINGS UP THROUGH NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE CWA AS COLDER AIR COLLAPSES BACK THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP MAY HANG ON IN THE SE COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. DOESN/T GET COLD ENOUGH TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE TRUE SENSE OF BANDED NW FLOW LAKE SNOWS. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL WITHIN GUIDANCE OF GETTING A BIT OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT HANGS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NW
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. TERRAIN MAY ALSO HELP
THINGS OUT AS WELL...AND WE COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE
NUDGED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A LITTLE TO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. BUT
DAY CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL AND DECIDE IF A
HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS AND A HEADLINE IS WARRANTED.
SO NEXT QUESTION BECOMES...WHAT SORT OF HEADLINE CHANGES DO WE NEED.
AS ELUDED TO EARLIER...THUS FAR I/M UNIMPRESSED BY THE MOISTURE FEED
INTO THIS SYSTEM AND THE TOTAL PRECIP THIS SYSTEM IS/WILL ACTUALLY
PRODUCE. U.S. RADAR MOSAIC BEARS THIS OUT WITH A DEFINITIVE LACK OF
A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND OVERALL MEAGER UPSTREAM PRECIP TOTALS THUS
FAR DESPITE ITS GREAT DYNAMICS. SURE...THERE IS A NICE INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY NOW PUSHING UP THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN AHEAD
OF LEAD VORTICITY CENTER THAT WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND
SNOWFALL SLIDING UP THROUGH NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. BUT SO FAR IT/S NOT SHAPING UP TO BE
A BIG HITTER IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT.
SO...IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...HAVE LOWERED OVERALL SNOWFALL JUST
A LITTLE. BUT STILL THINK A GOOD 2 TO MAYBE 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THERE TODAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. AND GIVEN THIS WILL BE
A WETTER/HEAVIER SNOW...WILL LEAVE THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ALONE FOR NOW.
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AGAIN...DON/T THINK ICING WILL BE A BIG ISSUE
TODAY ALTHOUGH MIXY PRECIP EARLY ON COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT. BUT EVEN SO I ONLY HAVE UP
TO 3 INCHES IN THERE NOW. THUS...NOT PLANNING ANY HEADLINES FOR NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN JUST YET. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING TO ADDRESS MIXED PRECIP ISSUES AND
SLICK TRAVEL POSSIBILITIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
WEATHER IMPACTS: GENERALLY MINOR. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH THURSDAY. MODERATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
EXPECTED WEATHER EVOLUTION: THURSDAY...POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE /ESPECIALLY
EARLY THURSDAY/ DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE ABOVE OTHERWISE SHALLOW INVERSION. WITH ONLY MINOR LAKE
CONTRIBUTIONS /H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C/ AND A RAPID DECREASE IN
MOISTURE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF NEW
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY FAVORED SECTIONS OF NW LOWER. THE
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO FLURRIES AS SURFACE RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...AND RESULT IN AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS /WENT SEVERAL DEG BELOW
GUIDANCE/.
FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WNW BY LATE IN THE DAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FROM MN ARROWHEAD INTO THE U.P. BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF SYSTEM. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NW LOWER AND E
UPPER AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSH EWD. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SAME OLD STORY.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY /SOME 10-20F/ BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS...THANKS TO PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA AND UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ALONG WEST COAST. AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE VERY COLD AIR
SPILLS SWD ACROSS REGION SUNDAY /FEATURING H8 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN
NEAR -20C/. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED COLD BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS /WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED/. THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD /SNOW AND POSSIBLY
WIND/ ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS
SEWD OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 909 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW FL010 AND VISIBILITIES
REDUCED TO UNDER 3SM IN SNOW. MBL AND TVC SHOULD SEE RAIN...APN -FZRA
CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AND -SN AT PLN.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS
FOR ALL TAF SITES. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY...REDUCING VISIBILITIES WITH FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. CEILINGS WILL FINALLY BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ008-
015.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
654 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN LOWER...WITH MAINLY SNOW
FOR UPPER MICHIGAN. COOLER AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO
SNOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO AN END ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THIN CORRIDOR OF LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD UP INTO NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...SLIGHTLY AHEAD SCHEDULE.
HAVE TWEAKED FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. PRECIP IS LIGHT...BUT MAY BE
PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT ICING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
WHERE TEMPS ARE LESS THAN 32F. HAVE ISSUED SPS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
...MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TODAY THEN BACK TO SNOW
OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS AS OF 08Z. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEARLY CLOSED-OFF
LOWER LEVEL (H8-H7) CIRCULATION NEAR THE IOWA/WISCONSIN BORDER WITH
AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS AND SPOTTY PRECIP (SNOW) STRETCHING
FROM IOWA INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER
DEFINED AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER PRECIP NOTED ACROSS ILLINOIS
CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC LOW AND LEAD VORTICITY MAX. THUS FAR...
DESPITE HOW WELL DEFINED THIS SYSTEM IS...GOOD MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
GULF IS DEFINITELY ON THE LACKING SIDE OF THINGS AS EVIDENCED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE GULF LARGELY IN THE 40S AND A LACK OF ANY WELL
DEFINED "WARM CONVEYOR" BELT STRETCHING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE FOR A WAVE LIKE THIS.
TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING BEFORE TRAVERSING THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO THE THIS EVENING. SFC LOW
TRACK...PRETTY MUCH ALL RECENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS (NAM/GFS/GEM/EURO/
UKMET) ARE IN DECENT LOCK STEP AND HAVE ALL TRENDED THE SFC LOW
TRACK JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
ESSENTIALLY UP THROUGH LUDINGTON TO HOUGHTON LAKE TO ALPENA INTO
LAKE HURON BY 00Z. BIGGEST IMPLICATION OF COURSE RESTS WITH PRECIP
TYPE AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST SIMPLY DOES NOT PUSH AS FAR NORTH
AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. STILL...HIGH RESOLUTION RUC AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO STILL PUSH A MODEST ELEVATED WARM NOSE (+1 TO
+2C) AROUND 900 MB AS FAR NORTH AS THE TIP OF THE MITT (ALREADY HAD
IT YESTERDAY EVENING PER 00Z APX SOUNDING) WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING MAINTAINS OR PUSHES SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
TODAY. SO...I THINK THE OVERALL LAYOUT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL
PRETTY GOOD WITH ALL SNOW IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/RAIN-SNOW-SLEET
OVER A CHUNK OF NRN LOWER PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
RAIN M-72 SOUTH...WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DON/T THINK THAT
ICING WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THIS GO AROUND AS SFC TEMPS WILL WARM
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE FREEZING WHERE LIQUID PRECIP WILL FALL AND NOW
THAT A GOOD PORTION OF AREA ROADWAYS HAVE LOST THE SNOW PACK IN
RECENT DAYS.
TONIGHT...CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO
CANADA WHILE TYPICAL WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND PRECIP SWINGS UP THROUGH NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE CWA AS COLDER AIR COLLAPSES BACK THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP MAY HANG ON IN THE SE COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. DOESN/T GET COLD ENOUGH TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE TRUE SENSE OF BANDED NW FLOW LAKE SNOWS. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL WITHIN GUIDANCE OF GETTING A BIT OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT HANGS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NW
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. TERRAIN MAY ALSO HELP
THINGS OUT AS WELL...AND WE COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE
NUDGED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A LITTLE TO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. BUT
DAY CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL AND DECIDE IF A
HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS AND A HEADLINE IS WARRANTED.
SO NEXT QUESTION BECOMES...WHAT SORT OF HEADLINE CHANGES DO WE NEED.
AS ELUDED TO EARLIER...THUS FAR I/M UNIMPRESSED BY THE MOISTURE FEED
INTO THIS SYSTEM AND THE TOTAL PRECIP THIS SYSTEM IS/WILL ACTUALLY
PRODUCE. U.S. RADAR MOSAIC BEARS THIS OUT WITH A DEFINITIVE LACK OF
A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND OVERALL MEAGER UPSTREAM PRECIP TOTALS THUS
FAR DESPITE ITS GREAT DYNAMICS. SURE...THERE IS A NICE INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY NOW PUSHING UP THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN AHEAD
OF LEAD VORTICITY CENTER THAT WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND
SNOWFALL SLIDING UP THROUGH NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. BUT SO FAR IT/S NOT SHAPING UP TO BE
A BIG HITTER IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT.
SO...IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...HAVE LOWERED OVERALL SNOWFALL JUST
A LITTLE. BUT STILL THINK A GOOD 2 TO MAYBE 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THERE TODAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. AND GIVEN THIS WILL BE
A WETTER/HEAVIER SNOW...WILL LEAVE THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ALONE FOR NOW.
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AGAIN...DON/T THINK ICING WILL BE A BIG ISSUE
TODAY ALTHOUGH MIXY PRECIP EARLY ON COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT. BUT EVEN SO I ONLY HAVE UP
TO 3 INCHES IN THERE NOW. THUS...NOT PLANNING ANY HEADLINES FOR NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN JUST YET. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING TO ADDRESS MIXED PRECIP ISSUES AND
SLICK TRAVEL POSSIBILITIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
WEATHER IMPACTS: GENERALLY MINOR. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH THURSDAY. MODERATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
EXPECTED WEATHER EVOLUTION: THURSDAY...POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE /ESPECIALLY
EARLY THURSDAY/ DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE ABOVE OTHERWISE SHALLOW INVERSION. WITH ONLY MINOR LAKE
CONTRIBUTIONS /H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C/ AND A RAPID DECREASE IN
MOISTURE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF NEW
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY FAVORED SECTIONS OF NW LOWER. THE
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO FLURRIES AS SURFACE RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...AND RESULT IN AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS /WENT SEVERAL DEG BELOW
GUIDANCE/.
FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WNW BY LATE IN THE DAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FROM MN ARROWHEAD INTO THE U.P. BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF SYSTEM. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NW LOWER AND E
UPPER AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSH EWD. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SAME OLD STORY.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY /SOME 10-20F/ BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS...THANKS TO PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA AND UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ALONG WEST COAST. AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE VERY COLD AIR
SPILLS SWD ACROSS REGION SUNDAY /FEATURING H8 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN
NEAR -20C/. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED COLD BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS /WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED/. THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD /SNOW AND POSSIBLY
WIND/ ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS
SEWD OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR LATE TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIP DEVELOPS FROM MBL/TVC
(AROUND 08Z) TO PLN/APN BY 10Z IN RESPONSE TO DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK DIRECTLY OVER NRN LWR MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS ALL LIQUID FOR TVC AND MBL LATE
TONIGHT...BUT AS A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/POSSIBLY SOME SLEET
BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP WILL REMAIN MIXED FOR THE TIP OF THE MITT (PLN) ALL DAY.
E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ008-
015.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...MR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN LOWER...WITH MAINLY SNOW
FOR UPPER MICHIGAN. COOLER AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO
SNOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO AN END ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
...MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TODAY THEN BACK TO SNOW
OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS AS OF 08Z. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEARLY CLOSED-OFF
LOWER LEVEL (H8-H7) CIRCULATION NEAR THE IOWA/WISCONSIN BORDER WITH
AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS AND SPOTTY PRECIP (SNOW) STRETCHING
FROM IOWA INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER
DEFINED AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER PRECIP NOTED ACROSS ILLINOIS
CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC LOW AND LEAD VORTICITY MAX. THUS FAR...
DESPITE HOW WELL DEFINED THIS SYSTEM IS...GOOD MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
GULF IS DEFINITELY ON THE LACKING SIDE OF THINGS AS EVIDENCED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE GULF LARGELY IN THE 40S AND A LACK OF ANY WELL
DEFINED "WARM CONVEYOR" BELT STRETCHING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE FOR A WAVE LIKE THIS.
TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING BEFORE TRAVERSING THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO THE THIS EVENING. SFC LOW
TRACK...PRETTY MUCH ALL RECENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS (NAM/GFS/GEM/EURO/
UKMET) ARE IN DECENT LOCK STEP AND HAVE ALL TRENDED THE SFC LOW
TRACK JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
ESSENTIALLY UP THROUGH LUDINGTON TO HOUGHTON LAKE TO ALPENA INTO
LAKE HURON BY 00Z. BIGGEST IMPLICATION OF COURSE RESTS WITH PRECIP
TYPE AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST SIMPLY DOES NOT PUSH AS FAR NORTH
AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. STILL...HIGH RESOLUTION RUC AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO STILL PUSH A MODEST ELEVATED WARM NOSE (+1 TO
+2C) AROUND 900 MB AS FAR NORTH AS THE TIP OF THE MITT (ALREADY HAD
IT YESTERDAY EVENING PER 00Z APX SOUNDING) WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING MAINTAINS OR PUSHES SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
TODAY. SO...I THINK THE OVERALL LAYOUT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL
PRETTY GOOD WITH ALL SNOW IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/RAIN-SNOW-SLEET
OVER A CHUNK OF NRN LOWER PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
RAIN M-72 SOUTH...WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DON/T THINK THAT
ICING WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THIS GO AROUND AS SFC TEMPS WILL WARM
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE FREEZING WHERE LIQUID PRECIP WILL FALL AND NOW
THAT A GOOD PORTION OF AREA ROADWAYS HAVE LOST THE SNOW PACK IN
RECENT DAYS.
TONIGHT...CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO
CANADA WHILE TYPICAL WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND PRECIP SWINGS UP THROUGH NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE CWA AS COLDER AIR COLLAPSES BACK THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP MAY HANG ON IN THE SE COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. DOESN/T GET COLD ENOUGH TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE TRUE SENSE OF BANDED NW FLOW LAKE SNOWS. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL WITHIN GUIDANCE OF GETTING A BIT OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT HANGS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NW
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. TERRAIN MAY ALSO HELP
THINGS OUT AS WELL...AND WE COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE
NUDGED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A LITTLE TO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. BUT
DAY CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL AND DECIDE IF A
HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS AND A HEADLINE IS WARRANTED.
SO NEXT QUESTION BECOMES...WHAT SORT OF HEADLINE CHANGES DO WE NEED.
AS ELUDED TO EARLIER...THUS FAR I/M UNIMPRESSED BY THE MOISTURE FEED
INTO THIS SYSTEM AND THE TOTAL PRECIP THIS SYSTEM IS/WILL ACTUALLY
PRODUCE. U.S. RADAR MOSAIC BEARS THIS OUT WITH A DEFINITIVE LACK OF
A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND OVERALL MEAGER UPSTREAM PRECIP TOTALS THUS
FAR DESPITE ITS GREAT DYNAMICS. SURE...THERE IS A NICE INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY NOW PUSHING UP THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN AHEAD
OF LEAD VORTICITY CENTER THAT WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND
SNOWFALL SLIDING UP THROUGH NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. BUT SO FAR IT/S NOT SHAPING UP TO BE
A BIG HITTER IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT.
SO...IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...HAVE LOWERED OVERALL SNOWFALL JUST
A LITTLE. BUT STILL THINK A GOOD 2 TO MAYBE 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THERE TODAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. AND GIVEN THIS WILL BE
A WETTER/HEAVIER SNOW...WILL LEAVE THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ALONE FOR NOW.
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AGAIN...DON/T THINK ICING WILL BE A BIG ISSUE
TODAY ALTHOUGH MIXY PRECIP EARLY ON COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT. BUT EVEN SO I ONLY HAVE UP
TO 3 INCHES IN THERE NOW. THUS...NOT PLANNING ANY HEADLINES FOR NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN JUST YET. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING TO ADDRESS MIXED PRECIP ISSUES AND
SLICK TRAVEL POSSIBILITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
WEATHER IMPACTS: GENERALLY MINOR. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH THURSDAY. MODERATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
EXPECTED WEATHER EVOLUTION: THURSDAY...POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE /ESPECIALLY
EARLY THURSDAY/ DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE ABOVE OTHERWISE SHALLOW INVERSION. WITH ONLY MINOR LAKE
CONTRIBUTIONS /H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C/ AND A RAPID DECREASE IN
MOISTURE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF NEW
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY FAVORED SECTIONS OF NW LOWER. THE
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO FLURRIES AS SURFACE RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...AND RESULT IN AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS /WENT SEVERAL DEG BELOW
GUIDANCE/.
FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WNW BY LATE IN THE DAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FROM MN ARROWHEAD INTO THE U.P. BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF SYSTEM. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NW LOWER AND E
UPPER AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSH EWD. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SAME OLD STORY.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY /SOME 10-20F/ BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS...THANKS TO PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA AND UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ALONG WEST COAST. AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE VERY COLD AIR
SPILLS SWD ACROSS REGION SUNDAY /FEATURING H8 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN
NEAR -20C/. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED COLD BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS /WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED/. THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD /SNOW AND POSSIBLY
WIND/ ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS
SEWD OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR LATE TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIP DEVELOPS FROM MBL/TVC
(AROUND 08Z) TO PLN/APN BY 10Z IN RESPONSE TO DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK DIRECTLY OVER NRN LWR MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS ALL LIQUID FOR TVC AND MBL LATE
TONIGHT...BUT AS A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/POSSIBLY SOME SLEET
BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP WILL REMAIN MIXED FOR THE TIP OF THE MITT (PLN) ALL DAY.
E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ008-
015.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...MR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
601 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT PCPN TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND LAST
NIGHT HAD MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST BY 12Z THIS MORNING. HEIGHT
FALLS WERE OVER 100 METERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
NEXT AREA OF UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS SHOWN ON RADAR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND SHORT RANGE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THAT. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF AND WITH INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SNOW MELT TODAY
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT TO OUR WEST. THESE SHOULD SPREAD INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY STAYED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.
THE AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WITH STRONGEST FORCING...BUT
THIS WILL HELP BRING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. DID NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AGAIN SINCE BEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING STAYS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THOSE THURSDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THOSE
ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
COLD SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SAVE FOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
THE PATTERN OF THE WINTER WITH COLD AIR AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES
AND EAST COAST...AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS ON TAP FOR THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
SPRING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KTS
ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH THE H85 FRONT PASSING THROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC BEING A LITTLE SLOWER AND
SHIFTED MORE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...COMPARED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
PER THE GFS. FOR NOW...DO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY FOR RAIN OR SNOW. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
A FEW MOSTLY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF SITES EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING ALONG
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. HOWEVER...OTHER MID
CLOUDS COULD MOVE ACROSS AREA LATER TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING NW ND BY 12Z THU. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT PCPN TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND LAST
NIGHT HAD MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST BY 12Z THIS MORNING. HEIGHT
FALLS WERE OVER 100 METERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
NEXT AREA OF UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS SHOWN ON RADAR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND SHORT RANGE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THAT. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF AND WITH INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SNOW MELT TODAY
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT TO OUR WEST. THESE SHOULD SPREAD INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY STAYED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.
THE AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WITH STRONGEST FORCING...BUT
THIS WILL HELP BRING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. DID NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AGAIN SINCE BEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING STAYS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THOSE THURSDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THOSE
ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
COLD SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SAVE FOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
THE PATTERN OF THE WINTER WITH COLD AIR AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES
AND EAST COAST...AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS ON TAP FOR THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
SPRING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KTS
ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH THE H85 FRONT PASSING THROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC BEING A LITTLE SLOWER AND
SHIFTED MORE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...COMPARED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
PER THE GFS. FOR NOW...DO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY FOR RAIN OR SNOW. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
ONLY AVN ISSUE IS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF -SHRA/VFR
CIGS LATE THIS AFTN AT KOFK AND KOMA. OTHERWISE..VFR THRU THE FCST
PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE INTO SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY...ACROSS WRN
ND/ERN MT AND SOUTH THROUGH ERN WY WILL MOVE MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. THE DEVELOPING CHINOOK BEHIND THE FRONT
SENDS H850MB TEMPS IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS ACROSS WRN NEB.
THE RAP SUGGESTED NEAR 50 FOR A HIGH ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE ZONES
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. IT WAS THE WARMEST MODEL. TEMPS WERE MARKED
DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NEWLY FORMED DEEP SNOW COVER OVER
NCNTL NEB.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD MELT A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS SNOW FIELD. THERE IS STILL COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH
MIGHT SUSTAIN A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE RAP
SUGGESTED A PERIOD OF STRATUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING BUT
SATELLITE SHOWS THOSE CLOUDS ANCHORED ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE FCST
AREA AND LIKELY THE RESULT OF REMNANT COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
TUESDAYS CYCLONE.
THE CHINOOK STRENGTHENS TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY H850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KT. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL REMAIN IN THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS. THE BEST GUESS ON LOWS IS MID AND UPPER 20S
BUT THE MODELS MAY BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SET TO CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK WINDS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE 60S. DID COOL HIGHS JUST A BIT...MID TO UPPER
50S...IN AREAS OF SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS COOLING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AT ALL LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR
SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS WILL BE AN OPEN WAVE...AND SHOULD PASS QUICKLY WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT
CONTINUED BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO OOZE SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE PASSAGE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
GENERALLY A QUIET AND VFR 24 HOURS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WHICH MAY CLIP
PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL WITH SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. ALL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AS BL DECOUPLES. TOMORROW MORNING WINDS PICK BACK UP...HOWEVER
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
618 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE INTO SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY...ACROSS WRN
ND/ERN MT AND SOUTH THROUGH ERN WY WILL MOVE MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. THE DEVELOPING CHINOOK BEHIND THE FRONT
SENDS H850MB TEMPS IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS ACROSS WRN NEB.
THE RAP SUGGESTED NEAR 50 FOR A HIGH ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE ZONES
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. IT WAS THE WARMEST MODEL. TEMPS WERE MARKED
DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NEWLY FORMED DEEP SNOW COVER OVER
NCNTL NEB.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD MELT A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS SNOW FIELD. THERE IS STILL COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH
MIGHT SUSTAIN A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE RAP
SUGGESTED A PERIOD OF STRATUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING BUT
SATELLITE SHOWS THOSE CLOUDS ANCHORED ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE FCST
AREA AND LIKELY THE RESULT OF REMNANT COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
TUESDAYS CYCLONE.
THE CHINOOK STRENGTHENS TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY H850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KT. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL REMAIN IN THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS. THE BEST GUESS ON LOWS IS MID AND UPPER 20S
BUT THE MODELS MAY BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SET TO CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK WINDS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE 60S. DID COOL HIGHS JUST A BIT...MID TO UPPER
50S...IN AREAS OF SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS COOLING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AT ALL LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR
SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS WILL BE AN OPEN WAVE...AND SHOULD PASS QUICKLY WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT
CONTINUED BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO OOZE SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE PASSAGE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FCST
AREA TODAY SPREADING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES NORTH. OTHERWISE NO CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
346 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE INTO SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY...ACROSS WRN
ND/ERN MT AND SOUTH THROUGH ERN WY WILL MOVE MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. THE DEVELOPING CHINOOK BEHIND THE FRONT
SENDS H850MB TEMPS IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS ACROSS WRN NEB.
THE RAP SUGGESTED NEAR 50 FOR A HIGH ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE ZONES
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. IT WAS THE WARMEST MODEL. TEMPS WERE MARKED
DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NEWLY FORMED DEEP SNOW COVER OVER
NCNTL NEB.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD MELT A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS SNOW FIELD. THERE IS STILL COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH
MIGHT SUSTAIN A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE RAP
SUGGESTED A PERIOD OF STRATUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING BUT
SATELLITE SHOWS THOSE CLOUDS ANCHORED ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE FCST
AREA AND LIKELY THE RESULT OF REMNANT COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
TUESDAYS CYCLONE.
THE CHINOOK STRENGTHENS TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY H850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KT. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL REMAIN IN THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS. THE BEST GUESS ON LOWS IS MID AND UPPER 20S
BUT THE MODELS MAY BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SET TO CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK WINDS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE 60S. DID COOL HIGHS JUST A BIT...MID TO UPPER
50S...IN AREAS OF SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS COOLING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AT ALL LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR
SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS WILL BE AN OPEN WAVE...AND SHOULD PASS QUICKLY WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT
CONTINUED BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO OOZE SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE PASSAGE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
CEILINGS WILL MOVE EAST OF AN ONL-BBW LINE BY 08Z. UNTIL THEN...
CEILINGS OF 3000-6000 FEET AGL ARE LIKELY. FOR VTN-TIF-LBF...
CEILINGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 12000 FEET. AFTER 09Z...NO CEILING OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND 300-340 AT 5-15KT WILL
INCREASE TO 10-12G18-12KT WEDNESDAY MORNING ABOUT 16Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN
THIS PERIOD.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT 18 HOURS. 120 KNOT 300 MB JET STREAK OVER
NEW MEXICO AT 12Z THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUNCH EASTWARD. AREA
OF 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS (AROUND 100 METERS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AT 12Z) WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR WEST
TODAY SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING...BUT THE
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE AS IT MOVES EAST. WE WERE ALREADY STARTING
TO SEE SIGNS OF THAT WITH REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 310 PM. HIGH
RESOLUTION RAP MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER (BUT WEAKER) BAND WILL
DEVELOP FARTHER EAST WITH A NEW AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...
AND THAT APPEARS REASONABLE. IN GENERAL...SLOWED DOWN THE ENDING
OF PCPN TONIGHT AND ALSO THE DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD MAINLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT PARTS OF KNOX AND
POSSIBLY ANTELOPE COUNTY MAY SEE A BIT MORE THAN THAT BEFORE 06Z.
MEASURABLE PCPN SHOULD END IN ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT
DECREASE SOME LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S SEEMS ON
TRACK.
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT SOME
LOW POPS GOING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS
IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY AND SEEMED A BIT
OVERDONE. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ADD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT LEFT THAT PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS 45
TO 50 NORTH AND 50 TO 55 SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
LEFT THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DRY...WITH MAIN FORCING
EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY 60S THURSDAY AND MAINLY 50S FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. A LARGE COLD
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS INTO THE -8C TO -14C
RANGE SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEING
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE 12Z GFS. BRIEF RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CLIP EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WILL
INCLUDE A SMALL POP IN OUR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH -8C TO -18C 850MB
TEMPS ADVERTISED FOR NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW NEAR A LINCOLN-OMAHA-HARLAN IA
LINE AT 0430Z SHOULD CONTINUE SHRINKING THROUGH 07Z OR 08Z AND
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT AT KLNK AND KOMA AFTER THAT
TIME. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR SO BEFORE
07Z. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUD CIGS ARE STILL FORECAST TO CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT AS GUSTY NNW SURFACE WINDS DECREASE SOMEWHAT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND COOL AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION COULD
BRING CIGS TO TAF SITES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...NOTABLY KOFK AND
KOMA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE ABOVE FL030...AND SFC WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE WITH HEATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...BUT
COVERAGE/TIMING TOO UNCERTAIN TO MENTION IN TAF FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
532 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...BUT THIS CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING MORE RAIN OR SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TONIGHT. THIS HAS BROUGHT A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION EXTENDS
ENE OF THE LOW...BUT THIS IS ONLY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION DUE
TO DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER JUST BEHIND THIS IS AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN LIFTING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT FRONT JET STREAK...AND SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS AREA
IS LARGELY CAPTURED BY THE 12Z NAM/RGEM AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WITH IT
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE LIFT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT IT WILL BRING A ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
STARTING OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT
QPF BOTH AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...THE STEADIEST SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ITSELF...RATHER THAN AHEAD OF IT. BECAUSE OF THIS...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND THE FRONT.
THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PICK UP. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE...MAINLY DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THIS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...AND INTO THURSDAY IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
WINDY LOCATIONS INLAND. BASED ON THIS...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE WILL BE WINDY ON THURSDAY TOO...BUT
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT ONLY MARGINAL MIXING WITH WINDS
ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP GUSTS DOWN JUST A BIT.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SNOW WILL BE
STEADIER WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM UPSLOPING EAST OF THE LAKES.
FEEL MODEL QPF IS A BIT OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY INLAND AND ON THE
LAKES...BUT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD GET AN INCH
OR SO ON THURSDAY...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE IN JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC TO THE
GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. DEEP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE EVENING....WITH A FEW MORE
WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
PROVIDING SOME WEAK ASCENT. THE PRIMARY FORCING THROUGH THE EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPSLOPE FLOW...WHICH WILL FOCUS ON THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ESPECIALLY THE TUG HILL AND
WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. BY EARLY
EVENING THE COLUMN WILL HAVE COOLED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR
PRECIP TYPE...EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
EXPECT THIS TO BE FAIRLY ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF
BUFFALO MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE EVENING.
THE TUG HILL REGION MAY SEE A SOLID 3-4 INCHES AS WELL IF UPSLOPE
PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH. OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS...THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION MAY SEE AN INCH OR SO...WITH JUST A LIGHT
COATING ELSEWHERE. BLACK ICE WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EVENING
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AROUND
SUNSET. THIS MAY ALLOW WATER FROM MELTING WET SNOW TO FREEZE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SCOURED AWAY. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS WARM AIR ADVANCES INTO THE AREA WITH A
PERIOD OF WET SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY RAIN.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS WELL...BUT WITH
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN EXACT THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS TIME RANGE
WILL JUST GO WITH RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW.
THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY
MORNING. A DRY SLOT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK BEFORE SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PEAK IN THE MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION FORCING A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING NOTABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEHIND THE SATURDAY SYSTEM A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH THE
START OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS OR LOWER TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THESE NUMBERS ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OF COLD AIR WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS
APPEARS LIGHT GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TOWARDS OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY...AS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. LATEST 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAN YESTERDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP.
LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE PATTERN RELAXING BY DAY 9-10 AS WE HEAD INTO THE LAST
WEEKEND OF MARCH. A MORE ZONAL FLOW MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED AT LEAST
FOR A TIME...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A WARMING TREND IN THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SEEMS TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 21Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE STILL IN PLACE FOR ALL BUT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN (KELZ, KJHW). THIS DESPITE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
DURING THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY DIPPING TO BETWEEN 3-5SM.
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APRPAOCHING COLD FRONT SOULD KEEP CIGS
ABV 3K FT...BUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT (AFT 04Z)...WE CAN EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BY
DAYBREAK...IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST SITES.
ON THURSDAY...IFR CIGS EARLY ON WILL GRADUALLY COME UP TO MVFR
LEVELS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO 3-5SM.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWER.
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND USHER IN A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES AND
WESTERLIES THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY ON LAKE ERIE...AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO. GALE WARNINGS ARE UP ON BOTH LAKES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWMELT
TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SNOWPACK WAS GREATLY REDUCED BY THE
LAST WARMUP. SOME RAIN WILL ALSO FALL WITH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RUNNING AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. SUCH LIGHT RAIN
AMOUNTS WOULD NORMALLY NOT BE AN ISSUE...BUT AFTER THE COLD WINTER
SOME AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS CONTINUE TO HAVE ICE COVER.
SOME ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE...AND THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
NEW ICE JAMS TO FORM AS ICE BEGINS TO MOVE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LOWER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW LEFT TO MELT MAY HELP MITIGATE FLOOD ISSUES TO SOME EXTENT.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH
FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME ICE JAM ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY IN
A FEW AREAS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ001-010-
019-085.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ040-041.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042-
062.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/RSH
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...JJR/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
349 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...BUT THIS CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING MORE RAIN OR SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TONIGHT. THIS HAS BROUGHT A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION EXTENDS
ENE OF THE LOW...BUT THIS IS ONLY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION DUE
TO DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER JUST BEHIND THIS IS AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN LIFTING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT FRONT JET STREAK...AND SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS AREA
IS LARGELY CAPTURED BY THE 12Z NAM/RGEM AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WITH IT
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE LIFT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT IT WILL BRING A ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
STARTING OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT
QPF BOTH AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...THE STEADIEST SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ITSELF...RATHER THAN AHEAD OF IT. BECAUSE OF THIS...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND THE FRONT.
THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PICK UP. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE...MAINLY DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THIS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...AND INTO THURSDAY IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
WINDY LOCATIONS INLAND. BASED ON THIS...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE WILL BE WINDY ON THURSDAY TOO...BUT
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT ONLY MARGINAL MIXING WITH WINDS
ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP GUSTS DOWN JUST A BIT.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SNOW WILL BE
STEADIER WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM UPSLOPING EAST OF THE LAKES.
FEEL MODEL QPF IS A BIT OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY INLAND AND ON THE
LAKES...BUT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD GET AN INCH
OR SO ON THURSDAY...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE IN JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC TO THE
GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. DEEP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE EVENING....WITH A FEW MORE
WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
PROVIDING SOME WEAK ASCENT. THE PRIMARY FORCING THROUGH THE EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPSLOPE FLOW...WHICH WILL FOCUS ON THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ESPECIALLY THE TUG HILL AND
WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. BY EARLY
EVENING THE COLUMN WILL HAVE COOLED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR
PRECIP TYPE...EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
EXPECT THIS TO BE FAIRLY ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF
BUFFALO MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE EVENING.
THE TUG HILL REGION MAY SEE A SOLID 3-4 INCHES AS WELL IF UPSLOPE
PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH. OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS...THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION MAY SEE AN INCH OR SO...WITH JUST A LIGHT
COATING ELSEWHERE. BLACK ICE WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EVENING
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AROUND
SUNSET. THIS MAY ALLOW WATER FROM MELTING WET SNOW TO FREEZE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SCOURED AWAY. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS WARM AIR ADVANCES INTO THE AREA WITH A
PERIOD OF WET SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY RAIN.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS WELL...BUT WITH
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN EXACT THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS TIME RANGE
WILL JUST GO WITH RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW.
THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY
MORNING. A DRY SLOT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK BEFORE SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PEAK IN THE MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION FORCING A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING NOTABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEHIND THE SATURDAY SYSTEM A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH THE
START OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS OR LOWER TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THESE NUMBERS ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OF COLD AIR WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS
APPEARS LIGHT GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TOWARDS OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY...AS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. LATEST 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAN YESTERDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP.
LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE PATTERN RELAXING BY DAY 9-10 AS WE HEAD INTO THE LAST
WEEKEND OF MARCH. A MORE ZONAL FLOW MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED AT LEAST
FOR A TIME...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A WARMING TREND IN THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SEEMS TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JHW WHERE CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR. FOR THE
MOST PART...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR/VFR AT
BUF/ROC/IAG/ART AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. DOWNSLOPING WILL
OFFSET THE INCREASING MOISTURE AT THESE LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AT JHW
WHERE A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OFTEN RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CIGS. THERE WILL BE MODEST WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT
IT LOOKS TO FALL JUST SHY OF LLWS CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST STATIONS SHOULD LOWER TO
IFR...OR CLOSE TO IT...BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERE ALSO WILL BE GUSTY
SW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWER.
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND USHER IN A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES AND
WESTERLIES THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY ON LAKE ERIE...AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO. GALE WARNINGS ARE UP ON BOTH LAKES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWMELT
TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SNOWPACK WAS GREATLY REDUCED BY THE
LAST WARMUP. SOME RAIN WILL ALSO FALL WITH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RUNNING AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. SUCH LIGHT RAIN
AMOUNTS WOULD NORMALLY NOT BE AN ISSUE...BUT AFTER THE COLD WINTER
SOME AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS CONTINUE TO HAVE ICE COVER.
SOME ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE...AND THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
NEW ICE JAMS TO FORM AS ICE BEGINS TO MOVE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LOWER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW LEFT TO MELT MAY HELP MITIGATE FLOOD ISSUES TO SOME EXTENT.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH
FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME ICE JAM ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY IN
A FEW AREAS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ001-010-
019-085.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ040-041.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042-
062.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...JJR/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
237 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING THE REGION MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1215 AM UPDATE...
AS EXPECTED, LOW CLOUDS ARE DVLPNG ACRS CNTRL PA MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT. HV UPDATED GRIDS TO GO PRTLY-MOCLDY ACRS FAR SWRN ZONES
THRU ABOUT 10Z, BFR MOISTURE OVERSPREADS CWA AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
ONCE AGAIN LATEST RUC 925MB RH FIELDS HANDLE CLDS BEST.
TEMPS ARE HVG A TUFF TIME DROPPING OFF TONIGHT UNDER WARMING
TEMPS. HV ADJUSTED MINS UP BY SVRL DEGREES WITH U20S/NR 30
EXPECTED WEST OF I-81 AND LWR 20S TO THE EAST WHERE RADN`L COOLING
IS MAXIMIZED AND AREA WL BE LAST TO GET INTO WAA. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED.
PREV DISCOS BLO...
730 PM UPDATE...THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GREAT SHAPE...SO JUST A FEW
COSMETIC CHGS WERE MADE ATTM.
SAT IMAGERY SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF A THICKER SC DECK CREEPING
NWD FROM CNTRL PA THIS EVE. NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT...
ALTHOUGH THESE CLDS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO PTNS OF CNY/NE PA
TWDS DAYBREAK...THEY WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE DOING SO OVERNIGHT AS
THEY ENCOUNTER INITIALLY DRY AMS TO THE N. THUS...OUR PRESENT SKY
COVER GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE...SHOWING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TIL
06-09Z...THEN INCREASING CLDS FROM SW TO NE.
OUR MIN TEMP GRID SHOWS THAT THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TAKE
PLACE ACRS OUR NRN AND ERN ZNS (TEENS)...WHICH MAKES PERFECT SENSE
GIVEN THEY WILL LIKELY STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST...AND HAVE A CHANCE
TO COOL RADIATIONALLY THIS EVE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.
4 PM UPDATE..
SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA POSSIBLY TO
THE NY/PA BORDER BY MORNING. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...SFC LOW PRES WILL RACK FROM NRN IL TO LAKE HURON BY
EVENING. SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PRODUCE A
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE. MODELS SHOW BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR WHERE POPS WILL
BE THE HIGHEST UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN FRONTAL MOISTURE APPROACHES.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPENDENT AND PRIMARILY RAIN
SHOWERS. THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHC
CATEGORY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH FA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. WENT WITH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS WITH POPS LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. PRECIP WILL FALL PRIMARILY AS RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
EVENING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX AS CAA COOLS
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE COULD BE MINOR SNOW ACCUMS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN SUSQUEHANNA REGION, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
THURSDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE NRN CWA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NRN CWA PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING
UNDER 275-290 FLOW. WILL CARRY LOW LIKELY POPS HERE AND SNOW
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
FRIDAY...SFC RIDGING AND AIRMASS DRYING WILL END ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED QPC GUIDANCE. UNSETTLED AND COLDER THAN
NORMAL. DETAILS FOLLOW FROM BEFORE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROF EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE TROF
WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, WITH THE COLD CORE EXTENDING
WELL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MONDAY.
A CYCLONE WILL SPIN OUT OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
TREK EASTWARD TO NEAR ATLANTIC CITY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS STORM
WILL SPIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO NY AND PA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
ARCTIC AIR WILL CRASH THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO NY STATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. A POWERFUL CYCLONE WELL OFF SHORE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND THE RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN WATERS. THIS WILL DRAG ADDITIONAL COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND, LEADING TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA
ARE MOVING NE INTO THE AREA BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AGAIN REMAINING VFR.
AT KRME MAYBE SOME SLEET WILL FALL WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING AT THE START. STEADY RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE IN AROUND 00Z AND REMAIN THROUGH 6Z. POSSIBLE CIGS BELOW 2K
FT AT KBGM IN THE EVENING SO ALTERNATES NEEDED. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AFTER 6Z.
SE TO S WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS INCREASING TO 10 KTS LATE MORNING
THEN 10 TO 15KTS DURING THE AFTN WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 CONTINUING
INTO THE EVE.
OUTLOOK...
WED OVERNGT/THU...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN -SHRA/-SHSN.
THUR NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ACROSS NY
TERMINALS. VFR AVP.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1220 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING THE REGION MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1215 AM UPDATE...
AS EXPECTED, LOW CLOUDS ARE DVLPNG ACRS CNTRL PA MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT. HV UPDATED GRIDS TO GO PRTLY-MOCLDY ACRS FAR SWRN ZONES
THRU ABOUT 10Z, BFR MOISTURE OVERSPREADS CWA AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
ONCE AGAIN LATEST RUC 925MB RH FIELDS HANDLE CLDS BEST.
TEMPS ARE HVG A TUFF TIME DROPPING OFF TONIGHT UNDER WARMING
TEMPS. HV ADJUSTED MINS UP BY SVRL DEGREES WITH U20S/NR 30
EXPECTED WEST OF I-81 AND LWR 20S TO THE EAST WHERE RADN`L COOLING
IS MAXIMIZED AND AREA WL BE LAST TO GET INTO WAA. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED.
PREV DISCOS BLO...
730 PM UPDATE...THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GREAT SHAPE...SO JUST A FEW
COSMETIC CHGS WERE MADE ATTM.
SAT IMAGERY SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF A THICKER SC DECK CREEPING
NWD FROM CNTRL PA THIS EVE. NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT...
ALTHOUGH THESE CLDS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO PTNS OF CNY/NE PA
TWDS DAYBREAK...THEY WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE DOING SO OVERNIGHT AS
THEY ENCOUNTER INITIALLY DRY AMS TO THE N. THUS...OUR PRESENT SKY
COVER GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE...SHOWING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TIL
06-09Z...THEN INCREASING CLDS FROM SW TO NE.
OUR MIN TEMP GRID SHOWS THAT THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TAKE
PLACE ACRS OUR NRN AND ERN ZNS (TEENS)...WHICH MAKES PERFECT SENSE
GIVEN THEY WILL LIKELY STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST...AND HAVE A CHANCE
TO COOL RADIATIONALLY THIS EVE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.
4 PM UPDATE..
SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA POSSIBLY TO
THE NY/PA BORDER BY MORNING. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...SFC LOW PRES WILL RACK FROM NRN IL TO LAKE HURON BY
EVENING. SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PRODUCE A
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE. MODELS SHOW BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR WHERE POPS WILL
BE THE HIGHEST UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN FRONTAL MOISTURE APPROACHES.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPENDENT AND PRIMARILY RAIN
SHOWERS. THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH FA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. WENT WITH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS WITH POPS LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. PRECIP WILL FALL PRIMARILY AS RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
EVENING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX AS CAA COOLS
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE COULD BE MINOR SNOW ACCUMS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN SUSQUEHANNA REGION, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
THURSDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE NRN CWA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NRN CWA PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING
UNDER 275-290 FLOW. WILL CARRY LOW LIKELY POPS HERE AND SNOW
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
FRIDAY...SFC RIDGING AND AIRMASS DRYING WILL END ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROF EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE TROF
WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, WITH THE COLD CORE EXTENDING
WELL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MONDAY.
A CYCLONE WILL SPIN OUT OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
TREK EASTWARD TO NEAR ATLANTIC CITY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS STORM
WILL SPIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO NY AND PA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
ARCTIC AIR WILL CRASH THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO NY STATE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. A POWERFUL CYCLONE WELL OFF SHORE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS.
THIS WILL DRAG ADDITIONAL COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NY AND
NEW ENGLAND, LEADING TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW
MORNING. AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY... LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS WILL START TO DEVELOP. SHOWERS MAY POSSIBLY BE
COMPRISED OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AN RAIN EARLY ON. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN. ATTM THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS THE MSLP TIGHTENS. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PASS TILL
THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT/THU...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN -SHRA/-SHSN.
THUR NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN, MAINLY ACROSS NY
TERMINALS.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
126 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LATE
WINTER STORM SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. RAISED FORECAST LOWS BY A
DEGREE OR TWO BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 900 PM FOLLOWS...
ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS BEING RECORDED BY ANY OF OUR SITES...RADAR
RETURNS INDICATE THAT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS OVER OUR NC
COUNTIES MAY BE SEEING A VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR MIST. I WOULDN`T BET
ON THAT THOUGH. MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE FEAR.
WHAT THIS HAS DONE IS SCOUR OUT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND NOW ONLY THE
MOISTURE SEEN ON RAP TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT MAINLY BELOW 800 MB.
THE SYNOPTIC SETTING AT THE SURFACE SHOWS COLD AIR DAMMING AND
THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH NO FORCING ALOFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXPECT
STRATUS CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. CURRENT SATELLITE IS SHOWING A BREAK
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST BUT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE WEAKENS EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL
IN OVERNIGHT.
WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN LEAN TOWARD A COOLER SOLUTION AS SEEN IN THE
MET MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH MAY BE A BIT TO COLD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 30S BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND A NORTH
WIND THE EXPECTATION OF FROST IS NOT HIGH FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WESTERLY WIND FLOW IN A PARCHED AIR-MASS
PERCHED ABOVE 8000 FEET WILL COVER THE AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PATCHY -RA/-DZ MAY LINGER OVER OUR FAR NE ZONES VERY
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 12Z/8AM...AS A STORM SYSTEM CIRCULATION
THROWS MOISTURE OVER-TOP AN ERODING HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE. RESIDUAL
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WNW MAY
ALSO AID IN LIGHT PCPN AROUND THIS TIME.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY INCREASE
IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY UP THROUGH 800 MB BUT THIS LOOKS INADEQUATE
TO GENERATE ANY PCPN SO NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES ARE PLANNED. NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AND IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...MAINLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE WED/EARLY THU EXPECTED.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE A STRUGGLE EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
WEAKENING WEDGE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON NE TRAJECTORIES...AND
AGAIN VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY WE MAY BE GREETED WITH CLOUDS. BREAKS
AND PERIODS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HOWEVER SHOULD PERIODICALLY
PREVAIL...THIS MOST FAVORABLE THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM SW FLOW WILL RETURN AT THE SFC
WHILE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESIDES...MAKING FOR OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL AID IN THE FORWARD PUSHING
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS. AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ALOFT WITH WESTERLY
WINDS...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ONLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
THAT INFILTRATED INTO THE AREA BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THE SYSTEM.
INTO SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE AND QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. THOUGH WILL NOTE MUCH
COOLER AIR INFILTRATES IN...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
STALLED SYSTEM OFFSHORE SLOWLY RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CIGS ARE CURRENTLY IFR ALONG AND N OF A KLBT-KFLO- KILM
LINE...AND MVFR TO THE S OF THAT LINE. CIGS HAVE CONTINUE TO SHOW A
LOWERING TREND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR CIGS DEVELOPING S INTO THE KCRE/KMYR TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN TIMING. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS
IN -DZBR AND CIGS COULD FLIRT WITH LIFR LEVELS MAINLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AS A SURFACE WAVE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT TO THE S OF THE
TERMINALS.
AFTER SUNRISE SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MVFR AT MOST
TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO LOW VFR
LEVELS...POSSIBLY SCATTERED...AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SE-SW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...RAISED WIND SPEEDS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR
SLIGHTLY ON THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE A FEW KNOTS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST RUC MODEL...OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 900 PM FOLLOWS...
HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR SC WATERS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR OUR NC WATERS THROUGH 6 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IS NOW
LOCATED AROUND 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. WITH THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS ARE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND ARE BLOWING AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING AT 7.5 FEET AT FRYING PAN
SHOALS AND 4.5 FEET AT BUOY 41110 OFF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE LOW EXITING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE CAROLINAS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES OVERNIGHT...THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE. SO AT THE TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND NORTH
OF LITTLE RIVER INLET THROUGH 6 AM.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL AN IMPROVED MARINE FORECAST AS WINDS
FALL OFF IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE. N WINDS
EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL EASE AND BECOME WSW LATER IN THE DAY AS LOWER
PRESSURE TO THE NE PULLS AWAY...AND ALLOWS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO LOOSEN CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL GO NW-N THURSDAY AFTN
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODERATE NE WIND SHOULD
BE EXPECTED DAYBREAK FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD OF
THE COASTAL WATERS MIDDAY FRIDAY. SEAS SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE NE
WAVE ENERGY ON THE WANE WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SMALLER BUT A
MYRIAD OF S-SE MINOR WAVE TRAINS OF DIFFERING WAVE PERIODS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS SEAS WILL BUILD TO
2-4 FT...WITH SOME POSSIBLE 5FOOTERS IN THE OUTER WATERS OF AMZ-252
AND 250...AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS AND DECENT SWELL
ENERGY IS TAPPED INTO ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS QUIET BACK DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH SEAS ON SUNDAY MAINLY 2-3 FT AND
MAINLY NORTH WINDS 10-14 KTS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/DRH/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
823 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
18Z GUIDANCE ON SOME MODELS SHOWS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD
POTENTIAL TO THE SNOW BAND. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING FOR AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR IN ND/HIGHWAY
10 CORRIDOR IN MN. SO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE SNOW
AND THE BURST OF STRONGER WINDS HITTING THAT AREA TOO...WILL
EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DOWN THRU THE VALLEY CITY AND
FARGO/MOORHEAD AREAS OVER TOWARD KDTL. THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN SNOW
FREE FOR THE MOST PART AND PAVEMENT HAS BEEN DRY. IT IS ALMOST
LIKE THE FIRST FALL SNOW WHERE IT IS PROBABLY BETTER TO ERR ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION AS THIS WILL BE HITTING AT THE PRIME MORNING
COMMUTE HOURS. SOMETIMES JUST A LITTLE SNOW WITH THESE CONDITIONS
IS WORSE THAN HEAVIER SNOW. WILL JUST GO WITH THE SAME TIMING AS
THE OTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA TO KEEP IT SIMPLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SHIFTING THE TRACK OF THE
MID-LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY SOUTH. THIS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ARE SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS. THE 15Z MPX HOPWRF
FOLLOWS THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY STRONG UPPER WAVE ABOUT TO
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS SYSTEM PROPAGATES EAST...700MB
TROUGH WILL BE NEAR DEVILS LAKE AROUND 06Z...THEN DEVELOP INTO A
700MB LOW NEAR GRAND FORKS (OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH) BY 09Z...THEN
BETWEEN BEMIDJI AND PARK RAPIDS BY 12Z...AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THEREAFTER. AS THIS UNFOLDS...EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...BECOMING HEAVIER AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS.
THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD OCCUR JUST NORTH OF THE 700MB LOW
TRACK...WHICH IS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND FORKS
TO BEMIDJI (OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TRACK). MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES QPF IN THIS
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. WITHIN THE
HEAVIER QPF AREA...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MESOSCALE BANDING
(FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCH...CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY)
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING QPF OF AN INCH OR
MORE (COULD EVEN BE ISOLD THUNDER). A BIG QUESTION IS LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING. FOLLOWED THE RAP
925MB TEMPS FOR RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER (WHICH USUALLY DOES A
DECENT JOB IN THESE SITUATIONS)...AND USED A LOWER SNOW RATIO
(10:1-13:1) AS PER THE ROEBBER METHOD. THIS KEEPS THE SNOW AMOUNT
FORECAST SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THE ONLY CHANGE
WILL BE TO MENTION LOCALIZED AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO A FOOT OF
SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA (LIKELY EAST OF THE VALLEY).
THE OTHER CONCERN IS THEN WIND POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...WITH 925MB WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN ADIABATIC TO 925MB
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS STAYING AROUND
35 KNOTS (ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WIND
SPEEDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOT SURE HOW THESE WINDS
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRESH SNOW. WITHOUT ANY FALLING
SNOW...GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE NEW SNOW ALONG
WITH THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...THE CANADIAN BLOWING MODEL
SUGGESTS WE NEED 35 TO 40 KNOTS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (WHICH
SHOULD NOT OCCUR). COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE IT IS NEAR ZERO
VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE MORE PRONE OPEN AREAS...BUT NOT
CONSISTENTLY A BLIZZARD (THIS IS FOR AREAS CURRENTLY IN A WINTER
HEADLINE ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). FOR AREAS EXPECTING ONLY A
TRACE OF SNOWFALL (SOUTHEAST ND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
MN)...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY. IF THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS IS MORE THAN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...THIS COULD BE
CHANGED TO A WINTER WX ADVISORY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY SETS UP...SMALL REFINEMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED TO HEADLINES AND SNOW AMOUNTS (FOR EXAMPLE...SNOW AMOUNTS
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED SOME). THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEM ARE DIFFICULT (P-TYPE AND TRACK ISSUES)...AND
MODELS OFTEN DO NOT HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE HANDLE UNTIL 6 HOURS
BEFOREHAND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLIER IN THE EVENING
MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD FOR LATE
MARCH WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS ACROSS NORTHEAST ND
INTO NORTHWEST MN.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ABOVE ZERO...WHICH ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW LATE MARCH NORMALS.
EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MOST PROMINENT
SHORT-WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP. BIGGER SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S UNTIL WED/THURS WHEN SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE WITH
EASTWARD MOVING INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TAFS. MAINLY WHEN THE SWITCHOVER
FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURS AND WHAT AREAS PICK UP SNOW. WILL NEED A
FAIR COATING TO GENERATE BLSN. WENT AHEAD AND DELAYED THE
SWITCHOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW A LITTLE AND PUSHED BACK THE ONSET
OF BLSN INTO FRI MORNING. THINK KGFK/KTVF MAY BE THE SITES THAT
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE BLSN. CEILINGS STILL WELL VFR NOW WITH
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AROUND.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ049-052-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-
007-014-015-024-026-028>030-038-039-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ008-016-
027.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ029-030-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ002-
003-022>024-027-028.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-
004>009-013>017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
659 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
STILL QUITE MILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WITH THE STEADY SOUTH-SE
WIND FLOW. SEEING SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA MAKING AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE WESTERN FA. FURTHER WEST AROUND THE
NEW TOWN AREA SW OF KMOT A FEW STRONGER CELLS HAVE PRODUCED SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES. NEXT QUESTION MAY BE THUNDER POTENTIAL IN OUR
FA. 925MB WIND SPEEDS DO LOOK PRETTY HEALTHY FROM THE SOUTH THRU
THE EVENING WITH A BAND OF AROUND ZERO SHOWALTERS FROM NEW TOWN
EASTWARD TOWARD KGFK. WILL CHANGE THE PCPN WORDING OVER TO JUST
SHOWERS THRU MIDNIGHT. MAY BE A FEW FLAKES UP AROUND THE CANADIAN
BORDER BUT THAT LOOKS MINIMAL FOR THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO
LOOK AT NEW GUIDANCE AS IT COMES IN AND SEE IF ANY OTHER UPDATES
ARE NECESSARY LATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SHIFTING THE TRACK OF THE
MID-LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY SOUTH. THIS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ARE SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS. THE 15Z MPX HOPWRF
FOLLOWS THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY STRONG UPPER WAVE ABOUT TO
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS SYSTEM PROPAGATES EAST...700MB
TROUGH WILL BE NEAR DEVILS LAKE AROUND 06Z...THEN DEVELOP INTO A
700MB LOW NEAR GRAND FORKS (OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH) BY 09Z...THEN
BETWEEN BEMIDJI AND PARK RAPIDS BY 12Z...AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THEREAFTER. AS THIS UNFOLDS...EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...BECOMING HEAVIER AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS.
THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD OCCUR JUST NORTH OF THE 700MB LOW
TRACK...WHICH IS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND FORKS
TO BEMIDJI (OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TRACK). MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES QPF IN THIS
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. WITHIN THE
HEAVIER QPF AREA...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MESOSCALE BANDING
(FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCH...CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY)
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING QPF OF AN INCH OR
MORE (COULD EVEN BE ISOLD THUNDER). A BIG QUESTION IS LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING. FOLLOWED THE RAP
925MB TEMPS FOR RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER (WHICH USUALLY DOES A
DECENT JOB IN THESE SITUATIONS)...AND USED A LOWER SNOW RATIO
(10:1-13:1) AS PER THE ROEBBER METHOD. THIS KEEPS THE SNOW AMOUNT
FORECAST SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THE ONLY CHANGE
WILL BE TO MENTION LOCALIZED AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO A FOOT OF
SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA (LIKELY EAST OF THE VALLEY).
THE OTHER CONCERN IS THEN WIND POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...WITH 925MB WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN ADIABATIC TO 925MB
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS STAYING AROUND
35 KNOTS (ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WIND
SPEEDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOT SURE HOW THESE WINDS
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRESH SNOW. WITHOUT ANY FALLING
SNOW...GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE NEW SNOW ALONG
WITH THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...THE CANADIAN BLOWING MODEL
SUGGESTS WE NEED 35 TO 40 KNOTS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (WHICH
SHOULD NOT OCCUR). COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE IT IS NEAR ZERO
VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE MORE PRONE OPEN AREAS...BUT NOT
CONSISTENTLY A BLIZZARD (THIS IS FOR AREAS CURRENTLY IN A WINTER
HEADLINE ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). FOR AREAS EXPECTING ONLY A
TRACE OF SNOWFALL (SOUTHEAST ND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
MN)...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY. IF THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS IS MORE THAN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...THIS COULD BE
CHANGED TO A WINTER WX ADVISORY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY SETS UP...SMALL REFINEMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED TO HEADLINES AND SNOW AMOUNTS (FOR EXAMPLE...SNOW AMOUNTS
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED SOME). THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEM ARE DIFFICULT (P-TYPE AND TRACK ISSUES)...AND
MODELS OFTEN DO NOT HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE HANDLE UNTIL 6 HOURS
BEFOREHAND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLIER IN THE EVENING
MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD FOR LATE
MARCH WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS ACROSS NORTHEAST ND
INTO NORTHWEST MN.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ABOVE ZERO...WHICH ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW LATE MARCH NORMALS.
EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MOST PROMINENT
SHORT-WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP. BIGGER SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S UNTIL WED/THURS WHEN SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE WITH
EASTWARD MOVING INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TAFS. MAINLY WHEN THE SWITCHOVER
FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURS AND WHAT AREAS PICK UP SNOW. WILL NEED A
FAIR COATING TO GENERATE BLSN. WENT AHEAD AND DELAYED THE
SWITCHOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW A LITTLE AND PUSHED BACK THE ONSET
OF BLSN INTO FRI MORNING. THINK KGFK/KTVF MAY BE THE SITES THAT
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE BLSN. CEILINGS STILL WELL VFR NOW WITH
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AROUND.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ038-039-049-
052-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-
007-014-015-024-026-028>030-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ008-016-
027.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ003-027-029-
030-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ002-
022>024.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-
004>009-013>017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
336 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
MAIN CHALLENGES CONCERN PRECIP TIMING/LOCATION/AMOUNTS/PHASE
AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE. WILL USE A BLENDED 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH HAS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE GEM. THE
NAM SFC LOW TRACK/QPF PLACEMENT IS FARTHER NORTH AND WILL NOT
USE AT THIS TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...SPOTTY INSTABILITY
INDUCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE ALOFT
WILL DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 03 UTC. ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT COULD MAKE AREA ROADWAYS SLICK.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOVE FREEZING MELTING SNOW...THINK THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PROMOTE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE GRIDS FROM 06 TO 15
UTC ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WINTER STORM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GFS/ECMWF SFC LOW TRACK IS FROM NORTHERN MT AT 12 UTC THURSDAY TO
THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. BEST
PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE 850 HPA LOW TRACK AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...
BUT WILL EXTEND LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST CWA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NEAR SFC LAYER WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING...SO MOST
PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN. MAY EVEN BE A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ND. WILL NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 06
UTC AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. WITH PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCHES
AND STRONG MID- LEVEL FORCING...MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE 850 HPA LOW TRACK WHICH
MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THINK A
SOLID 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMONPLACE...BUT IF STRONG BANDING
DEVELOPS... THERE COULD BE A NARROW RIBBON THAT EXCEEDS 6 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...GFS/ECMWF 925 HPA
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS BY 18 UTC
FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE FALLING SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED BY THEN...BUT
DEPENDING ON ITS WETNESS THERE COULD BE CONSIDERABLE REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. GIVEN THE SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL AND STRONGER WINDS ON
FRIDAY...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM 18 UTC THURSDAY UNTIL 00 UTC SATURDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. SATURDAY
WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY...BUT DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNRIGHT COLD
FOR LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DEPICTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY OR TUESDAY LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
CEILING HEIGHTS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THESE
CIGS AGAIN LOWERING TO MVFR CATEGORY TONIGHT...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS
VFR. CONFIDENCE FOR TONIGHT INTO THUR MORNING CONCERNING CEILINGS IS
LOW...AND WILL GO WITH WHAT WE HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE IN (VFR).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022-023.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
109 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. CONTINUE TO EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG...NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BASED UPON
THE 17 UTC RAP AND 14 UTC HRRR WITH SURFACE DESTABILIZATION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
ADDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG...NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AS THE 11
UTC HRRR AND 00 UTC 4KM WRF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS
DEPICT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH 100-150 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FOG TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BASED UPON WEBCAM OBSERVATIONS FROM 13-14 UTC. POPS
ALSO ADJUSTED FOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
UPDATE FOR TIMING AND INCREASING THE AREAL EXTENT OF SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS HAD INCREASED IN INTENSITY
WITH TIME THE PAST FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN HOURLY
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST REFLECTIVITIES AND THE
LATEST 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE ON TIMING HAS BEEN NEARLY SPOT
ON...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT SHOWERS TO STAY ISOLATED TONIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES QUICK BURSTS OF
SNOW COULD LAY DOWN UP TO AN INCH IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
THE TREND FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAINS ON TRACK.
ON THURSDAY A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN MONTANA AT DAYBREAK MOVES
INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IMPULSE WILL INDUCE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY OVER MONTANA AND
INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE
TO 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD ADVECTION BEGINS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING...AND CONTINUE AS SNOW LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN EARNEST FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY REACH ONLY INTO THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO MID/UPPER
30S SOUTH. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW MAY BEGIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH...BUT COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. MUCH BELOW
AVERAGE LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXPECTED - WITH LOWS FROM AROUND
ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING LATE THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD CANADIAN ARCTIC HIGH MOVES SOUTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE FOLLOWING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
CLIPPER...AND HIGHS SATURDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. LOWS OF ZERO TO 5 BELOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
TEENS SOUTH AND WEST.
A SLOW RECOVERY BEGINS SUNDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
AND BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ON MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 20S
AND 30S EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS
OF A BIT OF A RECOVERY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S
AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
KJMS WILL SOON BECOME VFR AS SNOW EXITS THE TERMINAL AREA.
OTHERWISE....VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY IMPACT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS PRIOR TO SUNSET.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO BARNES/RANSOM/SARGENT COUNTIES.
SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MOST RECENT OBS HAVE REPORTED
LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH WARMING NEAR SFC LAYER...REMAINING PRECIP
SHOULD CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL STILL BE MINIMAL. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX/SKY
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 CDT WED MAR 19 2014
15 UTC RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP FROM CARRINGTON
TO MOBRIDGE SD IN CONNECTION WITH WEAK A SHORT-WAVE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND. REPORTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LIGHT
SNOW...BUT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING...PRECIP
SHOULD SLOWLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
POPS/P-TYPE FOCUSING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL. WESTERN MN REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUD COVER AND WITH LATEST RAP LOW-LEVEL RH SUGGESTING SLOW
CLEARING...RAISED SKY COVER THROUGH 00 UTC. TEMPERATURES TODAY
MAINLY A REFLECTION OF CLOUD COVER...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE EAST AND INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
NO FORECAST CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND LATE WORK WEEK
SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN LOW TRACK AND
QPF AMOUNTS/LOCATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. WILL USE BLEND FOR CURRENT FORECAST.
FOR TODAY WEAK SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE ACROSS W ND AND WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY. WILL BE MONITORING A SMALL AREA OF -SN
OVER NW ND AS IT PROPAGATES SE. MAINTAINED ISOLD RW/SW MENTION
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND WILL HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WE WILL LOSE CLOUDS SO STAYED
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
RESPECTABLE Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE/IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE THIS EVENING SO
COULD SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH BUILDS IN.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND WEAK RETURN FLOW HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
FA.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN MIXING AHEAD
OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE THURSDAY. SOME PCPN LIKELY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
MODELS DIFFER SOME ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AS IT PROPAGATES WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE A
BEARING ON WHERE BEST PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE. GENERAL CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT THAT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FA WILL SE
BEST CHANCES AND INCREASED POPS THIS AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO MAINLY SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SOME RESPECTABLE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
AS LOW PASSES EAST FRIDAY WILL SEE SHARP COLD ADVECTION...WINDY
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE -SN AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA.
BASED ON EXPECTED WIND COULD SEE SOME BLSN FRIDAY AND THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END FRIDAY EVENING. COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES HOWEVER MIXING SHOULD HOLD MINIMUMS ABOVE ZERO.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. BY DAY 6 THE ECMWF IS FASTER THEN THE GFS. THE TWO MODELS
ARE ESSENTIALLY OUT OF PHASE BY DAY 7. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOWER ONE DEGREE IN
THE NORTH ON SUN AND RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
CEILING HEIGHTS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THESE
CIGS AGAIN LOWERING TO MVFR CATEGORY TONIGHT...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS
VFR. CONFIDENCE FOR TONIGHT INTO THUR MORNING CONCERNING CEILINGS IS
LOW...AND WILL GO WITH WHAT WE HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE IN (VFR).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1026 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
ADDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG...NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AS THE 11
UTC HRRR AND 00 UTC 4KM WRF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS
DEPICT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH 100-150 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FOG TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BASED UPON WEBCAM OBSERVATIONS FROM 13-14 UTC. POPS
ALSO ADJUSTED FOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
UPDATE FOR TIMING AND INCREASING THE AREAL EXTENT OF SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS HAD INCREASED IN INTENSITY
WITH TIME THE PAST FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN HOURLY
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST REFLECTIVITIES AND THE
LATEST 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE ON TIMING HAS BEEN NEARLY SPOT
ON...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT SHOWERS TO STAY ISOLATED TONIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES QUICK BURSTS OF
SNOW COULD LAY DOWN UP TO AN INCH IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
THE TREND FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAINS ON TRACK.
ON THURSDAY A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN MONTANA AT DAYBREAK MOVES
INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IMPULSE WILL INDUCE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY OVER MONTANA AND
INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE
TO 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD ADVECTION BEGINS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING...AND CONTINUE AS SNOW LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN EARNEST FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY REACH ONLY INTO THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO MID/UPPER
30S SOUTH. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW MAY BEGIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH...BUT COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. MUCH BELOW
AVERAGE LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXPECTED - WITH LOWS FROM AROUND
ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING LATE THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD CANADIAN ARCTIC HIGH MOVES SOUTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE FOLLOWING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
CLIPPER...AND HIGHS SATURDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. LOWS OF ZERO TO 5 BELOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
TEENS SOUTH AND WEST.
A SLOW RECOVERY BEGINS SUNDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
AND BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ON MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 20S
AND 30S EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS
OF A BIT OF A RECOVERY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S
AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH KJMS BY 1530 UTC. LIFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KISN THROUGH 16-17 UTC.
MVFR STRATUS AT KBIS AND KDIK WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
IMPACT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS PRIOR TO SUNSET.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1008 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 CDT WED MAR 19 2014
15 UTC RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP FROM CARRINGTON
TO MOBRIDGE SD IN CONNECTION WITH WEAK A SHORT-WAVE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND. REPORTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LIGHT
SNOW...BUT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING...PRECIP
SHOULD SLOWLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
POPS/P-TYPE FOCUSING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL. WESTERN MN REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUD COVER AND WITH LATEST RAP LOW-LEVEL RH SUGGESTING SLOW
CLEARING...RAISED SKY COVER THROUGH 00 UTC. TEMPERATURES TODAY
MAINLY A REFLECTION OF CLOUD COVER...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE EAST AND INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
NO FORECAST CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND LATE WORK WEEK
SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN LOW TRACK AND
QPF AMOUNTS/LOCATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. WILL USE BLEND FOR CURRENT FORECAST.
FOR TODAY WEAK SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE ACROSS W ND AND WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY. WILL BE MONITORING A SMALL AREA OF -SN
OVER NW ND AS IT PROPAGATES SE. MAINTAINED ISOLD RW/SW MENTION
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND WILL HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WE WILL LOSE CLOUDS SO STAYED
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
RESPECTABLE Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE/IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE THIS EVENING SO
COULD SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH BUILDS IN.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND WEAK RETURN FLOW HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
FA.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN MIXING AHEAD
OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE THURSDAY. SOME PCPN LIKELY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
MODELS DIFFER SOME ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AS IT PROPAGATES WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE A
BEARING ON WHERE BEST PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE. GENERAL CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT THAT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FA WILL SE
BEST CHANCES AND INCREASED POPS THIS AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO MAINLY SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SOME RESPECTABLE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
AS LOW PASSES EAST FRIDAY WILL SEE SHARP COLD ADVECTION...WINDY
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE -SN AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA.
BASED ON EXPECTED WIND COULD SEE SOME BLSN FRIDAY AND THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END FRIDAY EVENING. COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES HOWEVER MIXING SHOULD HOLD MINIMUMS ABOVE ZERO.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. BY DAY 6 THE ECMWF IS FASTER THEN THE GFS. THE TWO MODELS
ARE ESSENTIALLY OUT OF PHASE BY DAY 7. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOWER ONE DEGREE IN
THE NORTH ON SUN AND RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
COMBINATION OF CURRENT MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER FA AND UPSTREAM VFR CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE WILL KEEP REGION MAINLY CLOUD COVERED
GOOD PART OF THE DAY. DO EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
445 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, as sfc winds veer to
the south.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Current visible satellite imagery shows some high clouds over
southwest and southern portions of the CWA. Surface observations
still continue to show some of the lingering dust at Presidio
associated with a cold front that moved into the area yesterday
evening and overnight.
With surface high pressure having built into the area behind the
cold front...the area is currently experiencing north to northeast
prevailing surface flow. The HRRR and other models suggest that
this surface high pressure ridge will begin to slide east later this
afternoon. This should result in surface winds transitioning to
east to southeast across a good portion of the area by tonight.
With the ridge over the area for a good portion of the day
today...high temperatures will likely remain slightly cooler than
normal.
With zonal upper flow expected on Thursday and Friday... associated
surface trough development is expected on the lee side of the
Rockies. This will allow for south to southwest surface flow on
Thursday and downslope west winds Friday. The end result of these
dry warm winds will be a notable warming trend through Friday. 850
mb temperatures on the NAM support temperatures in the mid 80s on
Friday for most of the Permian Basin...with temperatures potentially
in the lower 90s for portions of the Trans Pecos Region. GFS
temperatures are progged to be slightly cooler than the NAM. For
now...will trend towards our current forecast...a hint cooler than
the latest NAM and ECMWF guidance.
A cold front will make its way into the area late Friday and
overnight early Saturday. The front will continue to build into the
area into Sunday...with last night`s European model run and this
mornings GFS being in decent agreement with regards to potential
rain chances over the southeast portions of our CWA on Sunday.
These rain chances are currently indicated in our current forecast
package and will be maintained.
FIRE WEATHER...
West winds on Friday will help develop a dryline over the eastern
Permian Basin during the late morning. This dryline will continue
to slide east of the area during the afternoon. Afternoon relative
humidity values of 7 to 11 percent are expected across much of our
area west of that dryline. 20 foot winds speeds could reach
critical thresholds for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the
Marfa Plateau. I would expect later shifts to be issuing a Fire
Weather Watch and eventually Red Flag warnings for these locations
if current trends persist. There is still some uncertainly on how
strong winds will be across the adjacent plains on Friday. The NAM
guidance is indicating slightly stronger winds than the GFS. At
this point it is a difficult determination as to which model is more
reasonable. If the NAM is correct...we could see critical fire
weather conditions over portions of Eddy and Lea County as well.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
249 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Current visible satellite imagery shows some high clouds over
southwest and southern portions of the CWA. Surface observations
still continue to show some of the lingering dust at Presidio
associated with a cold front that moved into the area yesterday
evening and overnight.
With surface high pressure having built into the area behind the
cold front...the area is currently experiencing north to northeast
prevailing surface flow. The HRRR and other models suggest that
this surface high pressure ridge will begin to slide east later this
afternoon. This should result in surface winds transitioning to
east to southeast across a good portion of the area by tonight.
With the ridge over the area for a good portion of the day
today...high temperatures will likely remain slightly cooler than
normal.
With zonal upper flow expected on Thursday and Friday... associated
surface trough development is expected on the lee side of the
Rockies. This will allow for south to southwest surface flow on
Thursday and downslope west winds Friday. The end result of these
dry warm winds will be a notable warming trend through Friday. 850
mb temperatures on the NAM support temperatures in the mid 80s on
Friday for most of the Permian Basin...with temperatures potentially
in the lower 90s for portions of the Trans Pecos Region. GFS
temperatures are progged to be slightly cooler than the NAM. For
now...will trend towards our current forecast...a hint cooler than
the latest NAM and ECMWF guidance.
A cold front will make its way into the area late Friday and
overnight early Saturday. The front will continue to build into the
area into Sunday...with last night`s European model run and this
mornings GFS being in decent agreement with regards to potential
rain chances over the southeast portions of our CWA on Sunday.
These rain chances are currently indicated in our current forecast
package and will be maintained.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
West winds on Friday will help develop a dryline over the eastern
Permian Basin during the late morning. This dryline will continue
to slide east of the area during the afternoon. Afternoon relative
humidity values of 7 to 11 percent are expected across much of our
area west of that dryline. 20 foot winds speeds could reach
critical thresholds for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the
Marfa Plateau. I would expect later shifts to be issuing a Fire
Weather Watch and eventually Red Flag warnings for these locations
if current trends persist. There is still some uncertainly on how
strong winds will be across the adjacent plains on Friday. The NAM
guidance is indicating slightly stronger winds than the GFS. At
this point it is a difficult determination as to which model is more
reasonable. If the NAM is correct...we could see critical fire
weather conditions over portions of Eddy and Lea County as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 39 77 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 40 78 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 37 82 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 45 78 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 45 80 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 44 72 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 36 78 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 28 72 37 82 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 38 77 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 41 77 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 37 80 50 91 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE OF THINKING FROM THE 00Z FORECAST SET. AN MVFR
CLOUD PATCH FORMED BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AT KIAH AND THEN MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. EXPECT THAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SE TX THAT
SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR
CEILINGS FROM ABOUT KCXO TO THE COAST. THE NAM12 AND NAMBUFR BOTH
LIFT THE CEILINGS TO VFR AT KCXO...KIAH...KHOU...AND KSGR BETWEEN
15Z AND 18Z. THE MODEL ALSO SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN TO BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY AT THE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CEILINGS DOWN AT KLBX AND KGLS.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AT 00Z...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ABOUT TULSA TO
BROWNWOOD TO DEL RIO. A COLD FRONT LAGGED THE TROUGH A BIT AND
EXTENDED FROM ARDMORE TO WICHITA FALLS TO MIDLAND. 00Z SOUNDINGS
SHOW PW VALUES NEAR 0.50 INCHES AND THE SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY DRY.
STILL EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. THE RAP AND OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HINT AT
SOME SHOWERS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT
FORECAST MENTIONS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. ALL IN ALL...SOME NICE SPRING WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 71 46 74 54 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 73 48 74 54 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 59 72 56 68 58 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
339 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SAT IMAGES SHOWED CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SCATTERING ACROSS THE MIDDLE...WHILE THICK CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. CLEARING AND SCATTERING
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE ON HOW SUNSHINE HAS ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB IN THE MID 60S IN THE WEST. CURRENT REGIONAL
RADARS ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OHIO.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE REACHING THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AROUND 00Z/8PM THEN CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. PLAYED QPF CLOSE TO
HPCQPF. HOWEVER..CLOUDS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT BEFORE WESTERLY FLOW WITH FROPA SCOURS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT IN THE PIEDMONT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL
END QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
GULF COAST. THE WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE FRI-SAT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. KEEPING
THINGS MAINLY DRY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO NRN VA FRIDAY...SO A FEW
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE SHENANDOAH VLY. BIG THEME THIS PERIOD WILL
BE THE WARM TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S FRI...WARMING TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY. SATURDAYS FRONT COMES
THROUGH MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE MTNS. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST BY DIVERGE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THEY HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN.
TREND FROM BOTH STILL FAVORS A SHOT OF WINTRY WX PERHAPS NEXT
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE WITH SRN LOW FORMING ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SHIFTING OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SUPRESSING THIS WITH NRN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD NOSING INTO SRN
VA...WITH BULK OF MOISTURE STAYING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE NEXT TUESDAY.
PRIOR TO THIS...WILL SEE ONE FRONT EXITED BY SATURDAY
EVENING...STALLING OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOME DIFFERENCE IN
GFS/ECMWF AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST STATES...PULLING MOISTURE BACK
NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SRN CWA POSSIBLE...WHILE
AN NRN STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NRN CWA. THIS WAVE RETURNS THE COLDER
THAN NORMAL AIR INTO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES BY MONDAY.
SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. INTERACTION BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAM AND DEVELOPMENT
OF SRN STREAM LOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR TUESDAYS EVENING. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET DRY AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT STAYING CHILLY FOR LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WEST TO NEAR 50 EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE OVER THE REGION IS SLOWING SCOURING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LYH WILL BE THE LAST TAF
LOCATION TO GET OUT OF THE WEDGE THIS EVENING. WSR-88D SHOWED
THAT ONLY SPOTTY DRIZZLE REMAIN IN THE EAST. HRRR HINTS AT SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE FAR
EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE WEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AT LWB AND BLF. IN THE EAST...IT IS HARD
TO TELL IF WITH MOIST/DAMP SOIL CONDITIONS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS. HIGH TO MEDIUM IN
VISIBILITY AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
144 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY ERODE TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RISING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S THIS MORNING. BECAUSE
TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED. HOWEVER...AREAS OF
FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION. MORE OFTEN THAT NOT...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL
SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE TOO QUICKLY. THINNING OF THE
CLOUDS AND BREAKING OF THE WEDGE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON THIS
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
40 TO THE MID 50S WITH MORE SUNSHINE. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY AND IN BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES WERE THE ONLY LOCATIONS AT 4AM THAT WERE AROUND
FREEZING. WILL BE CANCELING SOME COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE
EARLY MORNING.
MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA WAS ALREADY ALONG THE EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT
EASTERN COUNTIES TO BE CLOUDY MUCH OF THE DAY.BUFKTI SOUNDINGS HAVE
LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE NOT GETTING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL
AFTER 3PM. OF COURSE LOCATIONS WITH MORE SUN TODAY WILL HAVE THE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CONTINUING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AT THE SURFACE THE LOW WAS
IN EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE JUST REACHING THE EXTREME
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND 00Z/8PM THEN CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL
END QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
GULF COAST REGION. THE WESTERLY WINDFLOW AROUND THE HIGH...COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WILL MAKE FOR
TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
MARCH...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE APPALACHIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW
UPPER 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY...PASSING
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOWING WINDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TO SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS STILL HINTING
AT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE MORNING...WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RISING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
HELP KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER AS WELL...WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S IN THE FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES THAT
WILL DRY UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW AS THEY CROSS
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SUNDAY...THE FLOW TURNS SHARPER ALOFT TOWARD A TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEAVING JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN WRN GREENBRIER.
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL.
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS VARY WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A
SHARPER FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WITH THE UPPER VORT AND COLD AIR SURGING
INTO THE EAST...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF LAGS IT BY 12 HOURS. THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE SRN STREAM ENERGY TRYING TO BUCKLE BACK NORTH NEXT
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A NORTHERN
STREAM DOMINATED FLOW...SO OVERALL THE SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS
COLD WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY OFFSHORE LOW
STAYS NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WRAP-AROUND ON BACKSIDE OF SFC
LOW LATER TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE OVER THE REGION IS SLOWING SCOURING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LYH WILL BE THE LAST TAF
LOCATION TO GET OUT OF THE WEDGE THIS EVENING. WSR-88D SHOWED
THAT ONLY SPOTTY DRIZZLE REMAIN IN THE EAST. HRRR HINTS AT SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE FAR
EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE WEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AT LWB AND BLF. IN THE EAST...IT IS HARD
TO TELL IF WITH MOIST/DAMP SOIL CONDITIONS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS. HIGH TO MEDIUM IN
VISIBILITY AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1045 PM PDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...TONIGHT WILL BE DRY OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY
WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING TO LOWER POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN CONJUCTION WITH RADAR TRENDS AND THE KOTX
SOUNDING INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO FULLY MATERIALIZE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES OVERNIGHT. AS OF
830PM...ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TIP
OF WA. 00Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
CASCADES UNTIL AFTER 06Z AND DOES NOT BRING 0.01" INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AFTER 12Z. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUPPORT THIS
IDEA AND KOTX 00Z SOUNDING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
BETWEEN 700-500MB BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION CAN MATERIALIZE.
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO SLICK ROADS ACROSS THE CASCADE PASSES WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT THE MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD QUICKLY LEAD TO MAINLY WET
ROADS BY MIDDAY.
THERE REMAINS A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT 150-250 J/KG OF SB CAPE. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BY THE
NUMBERS BUT FEEL THESE MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE DEPENDING HOW
QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DRIES OUT. ERN WA AND NRN ID
WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
WHICH BRINGS RAPID 500MB COOLING OVER THE REGION PRIOR TO THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS IS WILL BE NICELY STACKED FRONT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL PROPEL PARCELS UPWARDS OVERCOMING ANY
WEAK CIN AND THIS IS WHY SB CAPE MAY BE ON THE LOWER END. 00Z GFS
WAS JUST TRICKLING IN AND WILL ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO TAKE
ONE LAST LOOK BEFORE ADDING INTO THE GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AN
ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35-45 MPH. THESE
GUSTS COULD BE ENHANCED WITH POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. /SB
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS: A STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WA
COAST THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGHLEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS GENERALLY
AOA 6-8K FT AGL THROUGH 20Z. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CASCADES ARND
00Z AND RACE TOWARD THE IDAHO/WASHINGTON BORDER ARND 03Z THUR. THE
MAIN PCPN THREAT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL COME WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WILL COME THROUGH QUICKLY IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW OR GRAUPEL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT
ACROSS NE WA/NRN ID. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS BTWN 30-45 MPH. /SB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 32 49 31 45 27 45 / 0 60 60 40 10 0
COEUR D`ALENE 30 47 32 44 26 44 / 0 60 70 60 10 10
PULLMAN 33 50 32 45 28 46 / 0 50 70 30 10 10
LEWISTON 35 57 37 50 31 48 / 0 30 60 40 10 10
COLVILLE 30 50 28 47 24 47 / 10 60 50 20 0 0
SANDPOINT 29 44 30 41 24 41 / 0 70 80 50 10 10
KELLOGG 29 42 30 38 24 38 / 0 70 90 70 30 20
MOSES LAKE 35 58 34 54 28 52 / 0 40 10 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 35 55 33 52 28 48 / 0 30 20 0 0 0
OMAK 32 54 30 48 25 48 / 10 50 10 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
902 PM PDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...TONIGHT WILL BE DRY OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY
WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING TO LOWER POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN CONJUCTION WITH RADAR TRENDS AND THE KOTX
SOUNDING INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO FULLY MATERIALIZE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES OVERNIGHT. AS OF
830PM...ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TIP
OF WA. 00Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
CASCADES UNTIL AFTER 06Z AND DOES NOT BRING 0.01" INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AFTER 12Z. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUPPORT THIS
IDEA AND KOTX 00Z SOUNDING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
BETWEEN 700-500MB BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION CAN MATERIALIZE.
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO SLICK ROADS ACROSS THE CASCADE PASSES WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT THE MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD QUICKLY LEAD TO MAINLY WET
ROADS BY MIDDAY.
THERE REMAINS A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT 150-250 J/KG OF SB CAPE. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BY THE
NUMBERS BUT FEEL THESE MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE DEPENDING HOW
QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DRIES OUT. ERN WA AND NRN ID
WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
WHICH BRINGS RAPID 500MB COOLING OVER THE REGION PRIOR TO THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS IS WILL BE NICELY STACKED FRONT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL PROPEL PARCELS UPWARDS OVERCOMING ANY
WEAK CIN AND THIS IS WHY SB CAPE MAY BE ON THE LOWER END. 00Z GFS
WAS JUST TRICKLING IN AND WILL ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO TAKE
ONE LAST LOOK BEFORE ADDING INTO THE GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AN
ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35-45 MPH. THESE
GUSTS COULD BE ENHANCED WITH POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. /SB
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS: SHORTWAVE RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THER REGION
WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT ALLOWING INCREASING HIGH AND MIDLEVEL CLOUD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER A
STRONG COLD FRONT TROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH CURRENT
TIMING BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE CASCADES ARND 00Z AND RACING
THROUGH THE IDAHO/WASHINGTON BORDER ARND 03Z THUR. THE MAIN PRECIP
THREAT THROUGH 18Z WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT A SMALL RISK
FOR SPRINKLES WILL EXIST AT THE TERMINALS. THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL COME AFT 20Z AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND FORCING
INCREASES ALONG THE COLD FRONT. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE
WITH A VARIATION OF RAIN, SNOW, AND GRAUPEL. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER. /SB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 32 49 31 45 27 45 / 0 60 60 40 10 0
COEUR D`ALENE 30 47 32 44 26 44 / 0 60 70 60 10 10
PULLMAN 33 50 32 45 28 46 / 0 50 70 30 10 10
LEWISTON 35 57 37 50 31 48 / 0 30 60 40 10 10
COLVILLE 30 50 28 47 24 47 / 10 60 50 20 0 0
SANDPOINT 29 44 30 41 24 41 / 0 70 80 50 10 10
KELLOGG 29 42 30 38 24 38 / 0 70 90 70 30 20
MOSES LAKE 35 58 34 54 28 52 / 0 40 10 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 35 55 33 52 28 48 / 0 30 20 0 0 0
OMAK 32 54 30 48 25 48 / 10 50 10 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
535 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
AT 3 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW IN ABERDEEN/S FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF
TODAY. THE 19.12Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BETWEEN 20.04Z AND 21.09Z. AS A RESULT...ADDED
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT...AND SOME
FLURRIES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
ON THURSDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 4C DURING THE DAY. THIS IS WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS A BIT SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...SO COOLED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AROUND 300K OR 500 MB...ONLY EXPECT SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND IN WESTERN WISCONSIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 2C TO 4C ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR /NORTH AND EAST OF THE WARM FRONT/ THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES DRAMATICALLY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST IF THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH THAT THERE
COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING
RAIN PRIOR TO CHANGING TO MAINLY RAIN.
FOR THE WEEKEND...COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE -4
TO -8C RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL
INTO THE -12 TO -16C RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COOL DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
NORMALLY... HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S.
FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE 19.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHIFT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN THE GFS HAVE COOLED MUCH CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF. AS A RESULT...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WITH THE BEST FORCING SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA...ONLY EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER IF THE
SOUTHWEST TREND CONTINUES...WE MAY NOT EVEN SEE THIS MUCH
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
DIFFICULT CIG/VSBY FORECAST TONIGHT AS NAM12/RAP13 POINT TO AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SATURATION TONIGHT VIA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT
COULD RESULT IN SOME IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. MELTING SNOW OVER
SOUTHWEST MN IS PLAYING A PART IN AN INCREASE IN SFC MOISTURE. THAT
SAID...THE RAP SFC TDS SUGGEST THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...IN A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE POST THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CURRENT CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS KRST/KLSE
IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST...AND SHOULD CLEAR KRST/KLSE BEFORE
06Z. MEANWHILE...SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS APPEAR DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PERTURBATION A LOFT. SOME RADAR
RETURNS WITH THE CLOUDS...AND SOME OBS SUPPORTING PCPN AT THE SFC.
MODELS AREN/T TOO EXCITED ABOUT HOLDING THIS AREA TOGETHER...AT
LEAST TO A POINT WHERE KRST/KLSE WOULD BE IMPACTED.
SO THE QUESTION SWINGS BACK TO WHETHER LOW STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IF IT DOES NOT. NAM/RAP
SOUNDINGS LEANING TOWARD FOG MORE THAN STRATUS...AND THINK THIS IS A
BETTER WAY TO GO. WILL HOLD ONTO TO SOME LOW CIGS AT KRST FOR
NOW...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE YET. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MORE EVIDENT TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA. THE 18.12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE TWO NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE 18.12Z GFS INDICATES THIS WILL PATTERN WILL TAKE
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THEN SWING MODERATE TO
STRONG PV ADVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-500 MB
LAYER THIS EVENING AND SOME LINGERING WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
WITH 2 TO 4 UBAR/S SHOWN BY THE GFS ON THE 285K SURFACE. ALL THIS
FORCING WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THAT WERE MADE WERE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST TO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CARRYING
A 100 PERCENT CHANCE AFTER 06Z FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND THEN HAVING
A SHARPER BACK EDGE AS THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTS WEDNESDAY WHICH
ENDS UP KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DRY
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE 18.12Z NAM SHOWS A
WARMER SOLUTION THAN EITHER THE GFS OR 18.12Z ECMWF WITH THE 0C
LINE FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH ABOUT -2C
OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS. THE GFS HAS THE 0C LINE FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...JUST BARELY INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH ABOUT -3C
AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THE
0C LINE BUT CLOSER TO THE NAM WITH -2C OVER THE NORTHWEST. ALL THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THIS WARM AIR ALOFT SLIDING OUT OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ONCE THE SURFACE LOW GOES BY. THE 18.18Z RAP LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE NAM THROUGH 06Z...SO CONCERNED THAT THE WARMER
SOLUTION MAY END UP BEING CORRECT. FOR NOW...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS...BUT WITH ALL OF THEM SHOWING SOME WARM AIR
ALOFT...THE LEADS TO THE CONCERN FOR SOME SLEET IN THE TRANSITION
BETWEEN THE RAIN TO SNOW AND HAVE ADDED THIS IN AS A POSSIBLE
WEATHER TYPE. WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PREDOMINANTLY
SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I90 WITH UP TO 3 INCHES IN TAYLOR COUNTY. THUS...NOT
PLANNING ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM COMING
IN FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA. THE CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL FLATTEN OUT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BUT THEN SHIFT
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WHETHER SATURATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE
OR AFTER THE SURFACE LOW HAS PASSED BY THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS
THE QUICKEST TO BRING THE PRECIPITATION IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS PRIMARILY KEEP THE AREA DRY ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR ONCE THE LOW IS PAST THE AREA. WILL SHOW A
SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY. THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE BATTLING SOME DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE OVER THE REGION...SO FOR NOW...THIS LEADS TO 30 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
PCPN WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL SATURATION
WAS STILL OCCURRING - PER SFC OBS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. TEMP PROFILE
SUPPORTS RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS AT KLSE...BUT MORE LIKELY -SN AT THE
ONSET FOR KRST. THIS WOULD PERSIST THROUGH 12Z...ENDING SHORTLY
AFTER THAT. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE. VSBYS OF 1-2SM
WITH THE SNOW...4-6SM IN THE RAIN. AS THE PCPN ENDS...THE WINDS WILL
PICK UP WED MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.
SOME GUSTINESS CAN BE EXPECTED.
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF WED...BUT EXPECT SOME
BUMP IN THE CIGS BY WED EVENING. GFS SUGGESTS SKC/SCT CONDITIONS
LATER WED NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM IS MORE PESSIMISTIC. GOING TO HOLD
ONTO CLOUDS FOR NOW...LETTING LATER MODEL RUNS/SATELLITE TRENDS ADD
SOME CLARITY TO THE CLOUD FORECAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
102 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
915 PM CDT
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF TONIGHT. WE STILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SIMILAR MINIMUM TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AN UPPER TO MID LEVEL JET MAXIMUM IS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE AREA
THIS EVE AND THIS HAS BEGUN TO INTRODUCE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS
WELL AS STRENGTHENING ASCENT. THE WARM FRONT IN THE LOWER LEVELS
IS WELL DEFINED AT 850MB...WITH A 6C DIFFERENCE THIS EVE BETWEEN
THE 00Z RAOBS AT ILX AND DVN AS WELL AS VEERING WINDS BETWEEN THE
TWO...INDICATING THE PLACEMENT OF THE 850MB WARM FRONT BASICALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-45 KT IS
POINTED INTO THIS AREA AS SEEN ON VAD WIND PROFILES...BUT THIS IS
STRUGGLING TO STEER IN MUCH MOISTURE THANKS TO DRY SOURCE REGION
AIR ACROSS MO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...THERE HAVE
BEEN A BLOSSOMING OF 8-12K FT CIGS AND RADAR ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL
IL. THE RESIDUAL DRY AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE HAS KEPT MUCH
OF THIS FROM REACHING THE GROUND THROUGH 900 PM.
WITH THE IMPROVING FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVERRIDING THE
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...GRADUAL SATURATION AND LOWERING
OF CLOUD BASES SOUTH OF I-80 SHOULD OCCUR...ENOUGH SO FOR SOME
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP TO PROBABLY REACH THE GROUND. BELIEVE THAT THE
PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH MUCH FURTHER NORTH BASED ON THE DRY
AIR AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST ASCENT. LIGHT PRECIP STILL
COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE CENTRAL CWA FOLLOWING THE
TOP DOWN WET-BULB PROFILES FROM THE RAP AND LOCAL 8KM ARW
SOUNDINGS...WHICH SEEM ON PAR THERMALLY WITH THE DVN SOUNDING. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES DID DROP QUICKLY THIS EVE IN NORTHERN AREAS INCLUDING
CHICAGOLAND THANKS TO CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH A LAKE
BREEZE THAT HAD PUSHED THROUGH PARTS OF CHICAGO. TEMPS SHOULD
STABILIZE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND EVEN MAY INCH
UPWARD WITH THE SURFACE WIND SPEED STARTING TO COME UP. IF PRECIP
WERE TO EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP...BUT RIGHT NOW THAT CHANCE
IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
333 PM CDT
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE SUN ANGLE IS CROSSING THE EQUATOR SIGNALLY
THE SPRING EQUINOX...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS HAS SOMETHING ELSE IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE A WEAK CLIPPER DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NRN MN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SHOULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE DEFINED...LAYING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE
ECMWF AND AND GEM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING PCPN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...NORTH OF THE
SFC WARM FRONT IN A ZONE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. SINCE THE AREA
HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM DIRECT FLOW OFF OF THE GLFMEX...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER AND ANY ASSOCIATED PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PCPN TYPE. BASED ON
THERMAL PROFILES...IN PARTICULAR FROM THE HIGH RES LOCAL WRF...THE
PCPN SHOULD INITIALLY START AS RAIN SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL BE A
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP WARM LAYER FROM THE SFC. AS THE COLUMN COOLS
OVERNIGHT AND THE SFC COOLS EVEN FASTER UNDER CLEARING SKIES...THERE
SHOULD BE A SHALLOW LAYER WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN
SUB-FREEZING AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. AS THE SFC FREEZING LAYER
INCREASES WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...ANTICIPATE THAT NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION TO A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN/SLEET TO SNOW/SLEET
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SLOW DURG THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE PCPN REMAIN ALL LIQUID AS
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN
COMPLICATION IS THE TRANSITION FROM RA/IP TO IP/SN FOR A CORRIDOR
GENERALLY BTWN I-80 AND I-88...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING...DURATION AND AREAL EXTEND OF MIXED PCPN OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY IS SETTING UP TO BE A TEASE OF SOME SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS AS
THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH WHILE WHILE THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE
CLIPPER TRACKS ACROSS CNTRL WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THE DEGREE OF WARMING TOMORROW WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK EWD...BUT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS TRACKING THE SYSTEM ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE PERIOD OF STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE LONG ENOUGH
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER ALL
EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER. BUT EVEN THERE...THE GOING FORECAST HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE AND TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
GOING FORECAST OF MIDDLE 50S. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRAILING FROM THE SFC LOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING
RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL FORCING AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.
HAVE BUMPED UP QPF AND POPS OVER WHAT THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST IN
DEFERENCE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT 12 HOURS OF OPEN GLFMEX...WHICH WILL ALLOW
A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO...WHILE CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR MEASURABLE
PCPN...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION IS NOT QUITE SO HIGH.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF TEASE OF
SPRING WILL COME TO A QUICK END AND THE AREA WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO
WINTER. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET
UP A LENGTHY PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S
FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGIONS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
FOR THE LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PCPN. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS FOR INCREASING AMPLITUDE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA...CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL SET UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING THE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PCPN...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN EXACT TIMING
AND TRACKS...HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF MODEST HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
OVER THE CNTRL CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO A SLOW...STEADY WARMING TREND. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY RISE FROM HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ON MONDAY
TO MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50F BY THURSDAY.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM EAST/ESE TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
* POTENTIAL FOR LOW-MID MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS WITH WINDS...PARTICULARLY AT ORD/MDW
TODAY. SURFACE WARM FRONT IS DRAPED WELL SOUTH ACROSS DOWNSTATE
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE AREA COULD BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS/POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET
SNOW TO MDW/GYY FROM NOW TIL 9-10Z.
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW UP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK TOWARD NW
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...DRAWING WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. AT THE
SAME TIME...MOST GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED ON IDEA OF SECONDARY LOW
FARTHER SOUTH TAKING OVER AND TRACKING OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL BE
INTEGRAL AS TO HOW LONG WARM FRONT TAKES TO LIFT NORTH AND THUS
DURATION OF EAST-ESE WINDS AT ORD/MDW...WITH LAKE INFLUENCE
EXPECTED TO TURN WINDS MORE EASTERLY FOR A TIME UNTIL WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN NEVER BRINGS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO ORD DUE TO FARTHER SOUTH LOW TRACK. INLAND AREAS SHOULD
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. FINALLY...A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON
THRU EARLY EVENING CAUSING SHIFT TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD FOCUS PRECIP CHANCES WITH SYSTEM
MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS...SO KEPT THE TAFS DRY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GYY HAS A SLIGHTLY BETTER BUT STILL LOW CHANCE OF
SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN
DURING THE EVENING...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW-MID RANGE MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS THROUGH MID MORNING...LOW IN TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT FROM EAST-EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW IN MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CHC SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
243 PM...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHERN LAKES TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED
FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. WHILE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS
INCREASED...IT STILL REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THUS...
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTH...WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND RAPIDLY CHANGING
WIND DIRECTIONS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN WEST/NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
415 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
AREA TONIGHT. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...TO
THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BRING
A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL POUR BACK
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
BANDED MIXED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TOWARD EVENING AND TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS THIS CYCLE.
ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS
INDUCED AXIS OF MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. RAP SHORT TERM PROGS SUPPORT RADAR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT AND
A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BANDING OVER PAST FEW HOURS FROM FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. LIMITING FACTOR TO PRECIP RATES TO
THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...AND
PERHAPS SOME LESS THAN IDEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ATOP
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. RAP/NAM CROSS SECTIONS DO DEPICT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY (NEGATIVE EPV) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRENGTHENING
FRONTAL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
SATURATION/INSTABILITY/FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO VERY NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET IS SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY IN
NATURE AND EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TOWARD 12Z. RAP 700 HPA F VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS APPEAR TO SHOW A
STRONG CORRELATION TO PLACEMENT OF CURRENT BAND AND HAVE GENERALLY
UTILIZED EVOLUTION OF THIS FORCING AS A FIRST GUESS AS TO FORECAST
TRENDS THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING CLOSER TO 12Z. COMPETING EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL
WAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER HAVE CREATED A
TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF PTYPE...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS TREND IN UTILIZING THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR AS AN APPROXIMATE
DELINEATION BETWEEN RA/SN AND SN. GIVEN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WET BULBS
AND AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY NATURE OF FORCING MECHANISMS THIS
MORNING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS
TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME EVIDENCE IN RADAR TRENDS OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...SO HESITANT
TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THIS MENTION. MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE WAS TO REMOVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE CPD`S RAPIDLY RISE THIS MORNING AND WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT AS SUPPORTIVE OF ACCUMS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH MAIN FOCUS
SHIFTING TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND PRECIP
CHANCES. NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
MID MS RVR VALLEY WILL LIMIT WARM SECTOR MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH
THIS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD GET
DRAWN NORTHWARD AND POOLED ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE THIS
HANDLED AND ONLY MINOR CHANGE WAS TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
POPS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN INITIAL DRY SOUTHERLY FEED.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANTICIPATED IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MAIN VORT TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT WHICH
COULD EVEN ALLOW AN ISOLD TSRA TO DEVELOP BUT VERY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE ARGUES FOR LEAVING THIS MENTION OUT OF ZFP FOR
NOW. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH SOME INDICATIONS IN LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT COULD
LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT. WARMEST TEMPS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BE MORE FIRMLY IN WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. PRECIP TO EXIT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR EASTERN NOAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PERSISTS...AND
EVEN AMPLIFIES...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY`S BRIEF STINT NEAR 60F.
HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE DATE AND VERY COLD WINTER BUT LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE WEEKEND
FORECAST. CAA WILL BE RAMPING UP BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW BUT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
TO DROP ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE A LAKE RESPONSE THIS FAR SOUTH. MAY BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW TO SUPPORT VERY
LIGHT PRECIP BUT EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE. 850MB TEMPS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER NEGATIVE TEENS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT STILL SOME DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS
REGARDING DEGREE OF VEERING IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DURING THIS
TIME. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING NORTHWEST BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL THETA-E/INSTABILITY FIELDS WARRANT CONTINUED
LOW CHANCE POPS. ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD ALLOW SATURDAY`S HIGHS TO
APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY FAIL TO REACH
THE MID 30S GIVEN 925MB TEMPS AROUND -8C. REDUCED ALBEDO FROM
LARGELY MELTED SNOWPACK AND STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE AN EFFECT BUT STILL DONT EXPECT HIGHS MUCH ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED CVA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW BUT
MOISTURE RETURN IS NEGLIGIBLE AND FORCING RATHER BROAD/WEAK OVER OUR
REGION. LOWER END CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MODERATE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN LOW LEVEL FRONT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA OVER NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTURE POOLING OVERNIGHT
SHOULD TEND TO ORGANIZE BANDING A BIT BETTER AS MAIN FORCING
SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...MAY NEED
TO ADD SOME PRECIP IN FUTURE AMENDMENTS AT KSBN WHICH MAY BE
LOCATED AT NORTHERN FRINGE OF PRECIP SHIELD. PROFILES FOR BOTH
KSBN AND KFWA COULD SUPPORT EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW AND
HAVE MAINTAINED MIXED NATURE AT KSBN FROM PREVIOUS TAFS WITH TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS. DEPENDING ON WHERE FRONTOGENESIS AXIS SETS UP AND
DETAILS IN THERMAL PROFILES...A NARROW AXIS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE...WITH PERHAPS BEST CHANCE OF THIS ACCUMULATION
SITUATED SOUTH OF KSBN AND NORTH OF KFWA. PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST OHIO TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. NEXT FAST MOVING
SYSTEM WORKING ACROSS MONTANA WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PROVIDING FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN SHOULD MAKE FOR
A FAIRLY SHORT 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY
LATE NIGHT. SOME POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BUT WILL ADD
MORE RESOLUTION TO THE FORECAST IN THIS REGARD IN FUTURE FORECAST
CYCLES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
335 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
An upper level trough will move east across the northern plains and
upper Midwest Today. This will cause a cold front across central NE
early this morning to move southward across the CWA during the
morning hours. The front will go through dry without much in the way
of cloud cover. The BKN Cirrus overcast across the southern half of
the CWA should shift southward through the afternoon hours.
Highs Today will be about 10 degrees cooler than Thursday`s highs,
with highs in the lower to mid 60s. north winds will increase to 15
to 20 MPH with gusts of 30 MPH by afternoon.
High and mid level clouds will increase through the night as the
north winds diminish after sunset. Overnight lows will range from
the upper 20s to mid 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
The Strong Canadian high pressure system over the northern plains
will continue to filter unseasonably cold air into the cwa through
the weekend and into the first part of next week. Highs Saturday
through next Tuesday will commonly be in the 40s...although some
readings in the upper 30s are expected near and north of I 70 with
lows in the 20s.
At this time...think the precip Saturday and Sunday will remain
west and south of the county warning area (cwa). However...with
the approach and passage of the next northwest flow shortwave
trough late Sunday night into Monday...increasing warm air
advection....isentropic lift/frontogenetical forcing to the
northwest of the cwa will spread/develop southeastward into the
cwa through the day Monday...exiting the far eastern cwa by late
afternoon. Will leave Sunday night dry...but light snow may not be
too far to the north of the Nebraska border by sunrise Monday
morning. Forecast soundings continue to trend colder...especially
across the northeast corner of the cwa and a little warmer further
south and westward. Will therefore carry precip type as all snow
across the northeast corner and a rain/snow mix elsewhere. Could
see a brief minor accumulation (less than an inch) in the far
northeast if temperatures remain cold enough through
midday...otherwise the snow could melt as it falls if readings are
able to recover into the middle and upper 30s. Elsewhere...no
accumulation of snow is expected at this time and precip should
end before evening. The coldest morning should be Wednesday where
the combination of light east winds and clear skies with the cold
air in place should result in lows from the upper teens to middle
20s. A return to a more zonal flow aloft and the approach of a
shortwave trough by mid week will result in moderating temperatures
into the 50s and 60s by Wednesday and Thursday along with a chance
for rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
VFR conditions to continue through the period. A frontal boundary
will move through the terminals in the 14Z-16Z time period. Winds
will increase through 18Z from the north at speeds near 16 kts
with gusts to near 26 kts. The winds will gradually decrease after
00Z with north winds under 10 mph by 02Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
North winds will increase behind the surface cold front this
afternoon. Expect north winds to increase to 15 to 20 MPH with gusts
to 30 MPH by afternoon. The NAM and RUC models show deep mixing to
800MB across the central and western portions of the CWA. The deep
mixing should cause minimum relative humidities to drop to 17 to 20
percent across the western half of the CWA during the afternoon. A
combination of low RH`s, wind gusts above 25 MPH and dry fuels will
create extreme fire danger conditions along and west of a
Marysville, to Westmoreland, to Junction City, to Council Grove
line. Therefore a Red Flag Warning will be issued for the area with
extrema fire danger.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ008>010-020>023-034>037.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...53
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
356 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
STILL A FEW CONCERNS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WET
BULB TEMPS /1KM MEAN LAYER/ HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY ARND ZERO OR BLW
ZERO ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA...WET BULB
TEMPS ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHICH HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST TWO
AREAS ACROSS WC MN AS SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.
THE SHRTWV ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS WX IS RATHER VIGOROUS IN THE
LATEST WV IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN ND...WITH ENHANCED CLDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE INDICATING STRONG LIFT. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
HOLDING OFF ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN PRIOR TO 1 AM...BUT LOCAL RADAR
DOES SHOW A BETTER ENHANCEMENT/INCREASE ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN IN THE
PAST HR...WHICH IS PROBABLY A GOOD INDICATION OF THE STRONGER LIFT.
CIGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING...BUT MOISTURE BLW 70H IS STILL RATHER DRY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. IT WILL TAKE A FEW HRS BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO SATURATE AND LEAD TO A BETTER CHC OF PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR BLW 70H...WILL HOLD OFF ON
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EC MN UNTIL AFT 15Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
DEPTH IS HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF MOISTURE/LIFT THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS EC MN AFT 15Z...AND ACROSS WC WI AFT 17Z.
DUE TO SFC TEMPS RISING AND THE COLDER WET BULB TEMPS /1KM MEAN
LAYER/ FREEZING RAIN IS LESS OF A POSSIBILITY ACROSS EC MN...EXCEPT
SOME OF THE LOW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN WC WI IF THESE WET BULB TEMPS
ARE WRONG. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP WET BULB TEMPS AND MOISTURE
LACKING UNTIL AFT 15Z...PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS EC MN/WC WI WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET/SNOW...POSSIBLY CHG OVER TO RAIN BY LATE
MORNING AS SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S. CENTRAL MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 30S.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WC WI DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTN...AND ACROSS THE REST OF MN BY MID TO LATE AFTN. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION BASED ON MOISTURE DEPTH. NO OTHER CHGS FOR TONIGHT AS SKIES
SLOWLY CLR. THERE IS ANOTHER CONCERN WITH WIND SPDS THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW MN DUE TO STRONG MIXING AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE MAY BE A WIND ADVISORY ISSUED IF
CONDS WARRANT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES
AS A 1030MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR ZERO
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...WHICH IS AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF MARCH.
STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS A CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD AND IA AND
THEN A PV BOOT KICKS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HAVE RETAINED THE HIGHEST POPS /ALBEIT ONLY 30-40 PERCENT/ ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WHERE FORCING IS A BIT BETTER WITH
THE CLIPPER. THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER FOR MONDAY...SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH FUTURE RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND PERSISTS AND JUSTIFIES AN
INCREASE IN POPS.
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 20S TO YIELD A RATHER CHILLY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE NOTABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH...WITH READINGS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 35
AND 45 DEGREES. SAID TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 28.00Z GFS AND ECMWF WAS NOT
SHABBY...WITH BOTH MODELS FEATURING A LOW CIRCA 995MB. WHILE TRACK
AND PRECIP TYPE DETAILS ARE STILL QUITE VARIABLE...LARGE SCALE
AGREEMENT SUPPLIED THE CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP
WOULD STATE 0FF AS RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST 6 HRS IS WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH EASTERN MPX CWA. OTHER CONCERNS IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
INTENSITY. REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING HAS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NW MN...AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. CIGS
REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NW MN. LATEST RAP HAS THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
12Z FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN/KSTC BEFORE 12Z.
AFT 12Z...CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER ALONG WITH A BETTER CHC OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL MN. ALTHOUGH EARLIER TAFS HAD
FZRA/PL/RA/SN FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS...DO HAVE CONCERNS THAT
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RA/PL AT THE
ONSET...WITH MAINLY SNPL IN EASTERN MN DURING THE ONSET.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDS REMAIN MORE CONDUCIVE ON PL/SN BASED ON THE
LATEST THERMAL PROFILE. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MORNING FOR KAXN/KSTC/KRNH...THEN
SLOWLY RISING DURING THE AFTN. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE S/SE
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE W/SW BY 12Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE W/NW AND
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. GUSTS AOA
30 KTS ARE LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW MN DURING THE
AFTN.
KMSP...
MAIN CHG FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS TO HOLD OFF ON PRECIPITATION UNTIL
AFT 12Z ALONG WITH MORE SLEET/SNOW DURING THE ONSET...THEN A
MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW BEFORE ENDING. FREEZING RAIN IS ONLY A
CONCERN FOR AN HR OR TWO BEFORE 13Z...BUT ATMOSPHERIC CONDS REMAIN
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLEET/SNOW DURING THE ONSET...THEN FREEZING
RAIN. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HRS...THEN MORE VFR VSBYS...BUT MVFR
CIGS DURING THE EARLY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SE/S
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE SW BY MID MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE W/NW
BY EARLY AFTN AND INCREASING. SOME GUSTS OVER 28 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTN HRS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 15-20 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-067-073>075-082-083-091-
092.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
THE UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF MOST
EARLY SPRING SYSTEMS...WHICH IS PTYPE ISSUES. EARLY AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
CLOUDS LINED UP WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE H850 WARM AIR
ADVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24HOURS...THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY MATURE
AND SPREAD A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THAT REGION.
A WARM NOSE...AS EVIDENT BY THE +0C LINE ON THE 0-3KM MAX T
LAYER...WILL CAUSE THE SNOWFALL TO MELT INITIALLY ALOFT...WHILE
SURFACE TEMPS LINGER NEAR 30S. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF CLOSE TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE DEEP
FORCING ARRIVES...AND EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY SNOW TO
BLOSSOM ON RADAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE MORNING
COMMUTE. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35MPH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN MN. THIS COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AS FOR HEADLINES...DECIDED NOT TO DO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT/S SYSTEM AS IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH RATHER
QUICKLY...LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS TOMORROW
WILL ALSO BE NEAR WIND ADVY CRITERIA OUT IN WRN MN...SO FUTURE
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO HOIST ONE OF THOSE IF WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS
STRONG AS THEY CURRENTLY DO...BUT WE STILL HAVE TIME BEFORE
NEEDING TO MAKE THAT DECISION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
FOR THE LONG TERM...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON
TAP FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY...WITH A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL NOT BE TO MUCH
TO WRITE HOME ABOUT WITH PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...JUST COLD UNTIL THEN.
AS FOR TRENDS WITH THE 20.12 MODEL RUNS...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR
THE WEEKEND. FOR THE LIGHT SNOW EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SNOW REMAINING
SOUTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER. FOR THE SECOND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR...WE
HAVE SEEN THE ECMWF COME IN NOT QUITE AS COLD WITH THIS PUNCH AND
ALSO HAS IT NOT LINGERING AROUND AS LONG.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND AS IT JUST LOOKS COLD...WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD STILL MAKE A RUN FOR ZERO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NE MPX CWA...BUT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE TOUGH TO SEE
SUBZERO LOWS GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MODELS NEVER SHOW THE WINDS
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING...PLUS WE HAVE THE EVER SHRINKING LENGTH OF
NIGHTS NOW.
LOOKING AT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
AS FAR NE AS THE MN RIVER AS A CLIPPER DIVES SE ACROSS SODAK
INTO IOWA. KEPT P-TYPE WITH THIS AS ALL SNOW...AS WELL IT WILL BE
PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG WAVE AND PV ANOMALY DROPPING SOUTH OUT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL LEAD TO A RATHER BREEZY
AND CHILLY TUESDAY.
DO NOT KNOW IF I AM COMPLETELY SOLD YET IN HOW FAST THE 20.12
ECMWF/GFS WANT TO BREAK DOWN THE WRN RIDGE AT SHIFT IT EAST NEXT
WEEK...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM SW
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. LOTS OF DISCREPANCIES ON THE DETAILS...BUT AT LEAST BOTH
MODELS SHOW A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FLOATING AROUND THAT WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SYSTEM TRACKS...IT
COULD BE EITHER A SNOW MAKER OR RAIN MAKER...SO STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST 6 HRS IS WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH EASTERN MPX CWA. OTHER CONCERNS IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
INTENSITY. REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING HAS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NW MN...AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. CIGS
REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NW MN. LATEST RAP HAS THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL
12Z FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN/KSTC BEFORE 12Z.
AFT 12Z...CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER ALONG WITH A BETTER CHC OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL MN. ALTHOUGH EARLIER TAFS HAD
FZRA/PL/RA/SN FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS...DO HAVE CONCERNS THAT
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RA/PL AT THE
ONSET...WITH MAINLY SNPL IN EASTERN MN DURING THE ONSET.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDS REMAIN MORE CONDUCIVE ON PL/SN BASED ON THE
LATEST THERMAL PROFILE. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MORNING FOR KAXN/KSTC/KRNH...THEN
SLOWLY RISING DURING THE AFTN. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE S/SE
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE W/SW BY 12Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE W/NW AND
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. GUSTS AOA
30 KTS ARE LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW MN DURING THE
AFTN.
KMSP...
MAIN CHG FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS TO HOLD OFF ON PRECIPITATION UNTIL
AFT 12Z ALONG WITH MORE SLEET/SNOW DURING THE ONSET...THEN A
MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW BEFORE ENDING. FREEZING RAIN IS ONLY A
CONCERN FOR AN HR OR TWO BEFORE 13Z...BUT ATMOSPHERIC CONDS REMAIN
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLEET/SNOW DURING THE ONSET...THEN FREEZING
RAIN. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HRS...THEN MORE VFR VSBYS...BUT MVFR
CIGS DURING THE EARLY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SE/S
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE SW BY MID MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE W/NW
BY EARLY AFTN AND INCREASING. SOME GUSTS OVER 28 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTN HRS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 15-20 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAD A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN AS THE PCPN MOVED INTO KGFK BUT IT HAS NOW
SWITCHED MAINLY TO RAIN. SOME OBS SITES IN NORTHWEST MN ARE
REPORTING A MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. NOT REALLY A LOT OF COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH YET BUT EXPECTING THE CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR THE KDVL TO KGFK AREAS. THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE COMING IN STILL
SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT
SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH
THE WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH IT WILL TAKE LONGEST TO CHANGE
OVER THERE. STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA AS A LITTLE SNOW ALONG WITH THE TEMP DROP AND BURST OF
WINDS DURING PRIME DRIVE TIME COULD RESULT IN PROBLEMS THERE TOO.
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SHIFTING THE TRACK OF THE
MID-LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY SOUTH. THIS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ARE SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS. THE 15Z MPX HOPWRF
FOLLOWS THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY STRONG UPPER WAVE ABOUT TO
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS SYSTEM PROPAGATES EAST...700MB
TROUGH WILL BE NEAR DEVILS LAKE AROUND 06Z...THEN DEVELOP INTO A
700MB LOW NEAR GRAND FORKS (OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH) BY 09Z...THEN
BETWEEN BEMIDJI AND PARK RAPIDS BY 12Z...AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THEREAFTER. AS THIS UNFOLDS...EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...BECOMING HEAVIER AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS.
THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD OCCUR JUST NORTH OF THE 700MB LOW
TRACK...WHICH IS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND FORKS
TO BEMIDJI (OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TRACK). MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES QPF IN THIS
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. WITHIN THE
HEAVIER QPF AREA...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MESOSCALE BANDING
(FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCH...CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY)
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING QPF OF AN INCH OR
MORE (COULD EVEN BE ISOLD THUNDER). A BIG QUESTION IS LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING. FOLLOWED THE RAP
925MB TEMPS FOR RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER (WHICH USUALLY DOES A
DECENT JOB IN THESE SITUATIONS)...AND USED A LOWER SNOW RATIO
(10:1-13:1) AS PER THE ROEBBER METHOD. THIS KEEPS THE SNOW AMOUNT
FORECAST SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THE ONLY CHANGE
WILL BE TO MENTION LOCALIZED AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO A FOOT OF
SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA (LIKELY EAST OF THE VALLEY).
THE OTHER CONCERN IS THEN WIND POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...WITH 925MB WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN ADIABATIC TO 925MB
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS STAYING AROUND
35 KNOTS (ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WIND
SPEEDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOT SURE HOW THESE WINDS
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRESH SNOW. WITHOUT ANY FALLING
SNOW...GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE NEW SNOW ALONG
WITH THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...THE CANADIAN BLOWING MODEL
SUGGESTS WE NEED 35 TO 40 KNOTS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (WHICH
SHOULD NOT OCCUR). COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE IT IS NEAR ZERO
VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE MORE PRONE OPEN AREAS...BUT NOT
CONSISTENTLY A BLIZZARD (THIS IS FOR AREAS CURRENTLY IN A WINTER
HEADLINE ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). FOR AREAS EXPECTING ONLY A
TRACE OF SNOWFALL (SOUTHEAST ND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
MN)...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY. IF THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS IS MORE THAN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...THIS COULD BE
CHANGED TO A WINTER WX ADVISORY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY SETS UP...SMALL REFINEMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED TO HEADLINES AND SNOW AMOUNTS (FOR EXAMPLE...SNOW AMOUNTS
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED SOME). THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEM ARE DIFFICULT (P-TYPE AND TRACK ISSUES)...AND
MODELS OFTEN DO NOT HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE HANDLE UNTIL 6 HOURS
BEFOREHAND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLIER IN THE EVENING
MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD FOR LATE
MARCH WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS ACROSS NORTHEAST ND
INTO NORTHWEST MN.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ABOVE ZERO...WHICH ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW LATE MARCH NORMALS.
EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MOST PROMINENT
SHORT-WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP. BIGGER SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S UNTIL WED/THURS WHEN SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE WITH
EASTWARD MOVING INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST STILL DUE TO SNOW AMOUNTS AND
WHETHER/WHERE THE SNOW WILL BLOW. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF BLSN ONLY
WHERE THE MOST SNOW IS EXPECTED AND WINDS ARE STRONGEST...KGFK AND
MAYBE KTVF. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOULD BE QUICK AND THE SNOW
COULD FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES AT KGFK/KTVF/KBJI. NOT AS MUCH FOR
KDVL AND KFAR. HOWEVER WINDS WILL KICK IN STRONGEST AT KDVL/KFAR
AND KGFK. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THINGS
CLEARING OUT BY AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS. WINDS ALSO SHOULD BEGIN
TO DECREASE SOME BY FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ049-052-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-
015-024-026-028>030-038-039-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ029-030-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ002-003-
022>024-027-028.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-004>009-
013>017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
421 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTASOTA MOVING TOWARD WI...IS
WHERE MOST OF THE TIME WAS SPENT THIS SHIFT. LOOKS LIKE POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTH...WINDY COLD FRONT...AND COLD TEMPERATURE SURGE ALL HAD TO
BE ANALYZED.
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-FORMED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EAST OF KBIS AT 08Z WITH A NICE BUT NOT DRAMATIC BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER THE MN/ND BORDER AREA. SOME GOOD DARKENING BEHIND THE
WAVE INDICATIVE OF THE DIPOLE NATURE TO THE IMPULSE...LIFT THEN
SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RAOBS ARE INTERESTINGLY DRY WITH KABR MAYBE THE
MOST DRY CONSIDERING IT IS JUST EAST OF THE FORCING AT THAT TIME.
THE LAPSE RATE IS QUITE STEEP THOUGH AT KABR WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WITH A MID-LEVEL SATURATED PARCEL. LATEST RAP
FRONOTGENESIS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE WELL MATCHED TO THE RADAR BAND NEAR KABR. HOWEVER...THAT ECHO
HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST. OVERALL...ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL CLOUD AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE RULE OVER THE
DAKOTASOTA WITH DRY AIR BATTLES ONGOING.
DOUBLE FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH AN OCCLUDED N-S FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS
AND THE COLDER /BELOW 0C AT 925MB/ SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM BISMARK
INTO SRN MT AT 08Z. THIS IS THE FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE GOOD
PRESSURE RISE...GUSTY WINDS...AND COLDER AIR THIS EVENING.
PRESSURE RISES IN SD RIGHT NOW OF 4 MB/3 HR BUT THOSE SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE SECONDARY FRONT BECOMES THE ONE TO
WATCH. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS STEADY STATE
OR SLIGHTLY FILLS WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSIDERING WE ARE IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE AMOUNT OF SATURATION WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND WHERE...AND ALSO THE TIMING. THE 21.00Z
GFS WAS VERY FAST AND AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN AREA BY MID MORNING WITH DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS SOLUTION IS TOO FAST AND THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER ON THE WET SIDE GIVEN 00Z RAOBS AND CURRENT
TRENDS ON RADAR...AND COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
21.00Z/06Z NAM/ECMWF/LATEST RAP SOLUTION CONSENSUS WITH LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY THE I-94 AND NORTH AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS EXCELLENT AND DEEP QG FORCING FORCING IN A
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT / OVER 8C/KM / IN THIS DEEPLY
DRY AIR MASS AND BELIEVE THIS WILL PROVIDE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT IT SEEMS VERY DRY
AND WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/BELOW 0C...SO HYDROMETEORS WILL
EITHER EVAPORATE/SUBLIME...OR REACH THE SURFACE AND BRIEFLY BE OF
ANOTHER TYPE BEFORE TRANSITING TO SN OR RA. SEEMED THE BIG PICTURE
WAS A RA/SN FORECAST BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES /FREEZING
LEVEL/. MOST OF THE AREA WOULD BE RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM
RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. BUT AGAIN...MOST AREAS SOUTHWEST OF I-94
WILL STRUGGLE WITH SATURATION DURING THE MAIN FORCING PERIOD
AROUND MID-DAY TODAY. THEN...QG- SUBSIDENCE BEGINS ALOFT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
SLOWER TIMING AND ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT HAS DELAYED THE ONSET
OF GUSTY WINDS UNTIL THIS EVENING. THAT...AND DRY AIR IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL PROMOTE 50S FOR HIGHS. THIS EVENING A
POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISE WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE IN THE AREAS OF
SERN MN AND NERN IA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE THAT THESE VALUES WILL BE
SEEN HOWEVER IS STARTING TO LOWER AS THE PRESSURE RISE/FALL
COUPLET ISNT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL BRING STEEPER 0-1.5KM AGL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLY SOME
RW-/SW- LINGERING. THUS...HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE EVENING...SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY BE A DRIZZLE.
MOST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...AND WITH
A WARMER DAY FOR ROAD WARMING...FZDZ THREATS SEEM PRETTY LOW THIS
EVE. IT IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL HAVE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-94 TO AROUND AN INCH
BEFORE A RA/SN MIX OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
ENJOY THE WARM TODAY CUZ THE NEXT DAYS WILL FAVOR TRAVEL AGENTS
BOOKING FLIGHTS TO THE EQUATOR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ABOUT 3F AND INCREASED WINDS...OH
JOY. THE WIND CHILL NOW NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
SERN MN ALL DAY. MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALIES IN THE
-2 RANGE SUGGEST NO RECORDS BUT LITTLE DIURNAL CURVE /MAYBE 5F/.
SOME CLOUDS COULD BE AROUND UNDER THE INVERSION UNTIL AFTERNOON AS
WELL. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...AND BEYOND...
MONDAY-TUESDAY BRINGS A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE TO THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR TUE-WED. BUT THEN...HOLD YOUR EASTER
BONNET...IT LOOKS WARMER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
WITH AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO AND CYCLONE BRINGING A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS CYCLONE FOR LATE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MUCH WARMER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING A SWATH OF PCPN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN/WI.
EXPECTED TRACK WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN CHANCES NORTH OF
KRST/KLSE...AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE 18-21Z
TIME FRAME...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND BECOMING
STRONG AND GUSTY. MVFR CIGS ALSO LOOK PROBABLE...LIKELY PERSISTING
FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE FRI EVENING...IN THE VICINITY OF
A SECONDARY FRONT/TROUGH. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. NOT MUCH SLACKENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ON SAT...SO WINDS WILL STAY UP.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
WHILE THE AIR WILL BE COLD THIS WEEKEND...RECORDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
RECORD LOWS ARE ALL BELOW ZERO FOR MARCH 22-23.
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 22/23...
LA CROSSE...MARCH 22 / 9F IN 1888...MARCH 23 / 17F IN 1940
ROCHESTER...MARCH 22 / 6F IN 1888...MARCH 23 / 10F IN 1965
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLIMATE...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL EASE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. A STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY,
THEN MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, AND TRACK EAST OF OUR
REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT IS OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY
FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTH.
PER THE RADAR TRENDS OFF TO OUR WEST AND LOOKING AT THE HRRR AND
GFS, WE`VE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE DELMARVA. THERE`S A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PRESENT AND WAA INDUCING SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. BOTH THESE FEATURES CROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATER
TODAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S FAR NORTH AND LOW/MID 50S MOST
OTHER AREAS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN
DELAWARE AND THE ERN SHORE AREAS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY W/NW THIS
MORNING THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AROUND 10 MPH.
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND ARRIVE OVER ERN LAKE ONTARIO AT
12Z SAT. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A WAA PATTERN OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME SRLY AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE ONLY POSSIBLE
PCPN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS WHERE SLGT CHC POPS WERE
KEPT IN FROM EARLIER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF NJ WHILE READINGS IN THE
LOW 40S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA AND THE DELMARVA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB THAN THE WRF-NMMB, BUT
THERMALLY THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED BETTER. WITH OUR TUESDAY SYSTEM, THE
GFS TIED ITS DIGGING TO THE ECMWF`S IMPULSE NORTH OF ALASKA AND
PRESTO IT INTENSIFIES THE SFC LOW FASTER AND HAS A CLOSER TO THE
COAST TRACK. IN FACT THE OP GFS AND OP ECMWF LOCATIONS ARE EXTREMELY
CLOSE AND THE FORMER IS DEEPER FASTER. THE LONG WAVE WAVELENGTH
ON THE NIGHT RUN WITH THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET WAS FLATTER, NOT AS
MUCH RIDGING IN THE ROCKIES AND LESS OFF THE EAST COAST. THE NIGHT
RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE SUBDUED THAN THE DAY RUNS. THERE ARE STILL
MANY MORE SOUNDING RUNS BEFORE THIS ONE IS PUT INTO THE BOOKS AND
THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE IS STILL NORTH OF ALASKA. THE MODEL PATTERN
IS THE SAME, A DEEPENING TROF AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST
COAST. WE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN MOST AREAS. ANYONE
WITH INTERESTS THAT WOULD BE IMPACTED BY THE WEATHER NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, PLEASE FOLLOW THE FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
ONE WOULD NOT EXACTLY THINK ABOUT SNOW BASED ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE
LONG TERM AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR A CHANGE. IN FACT 70 DEGREES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ITS
WAY ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SHOWERS NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA, THE COLDER AIR IS COMING IN SEGMENTS. THUS THE INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
COMPENSATE FOR SOME OF THE CAA. MAX TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO CONTINUITY
AND ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN LAGGING OF LATE. IT WILL BE
BREEZY, WITH WIND GUSTS EASILY REACHING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH.
MORNING SHOWER CHANCES WERE LEFT CLOSE TO CONTINUITY AND NEAREST
THE HIRES NMM-EAST.
THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX ON SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT CLOUDINESS
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO START STREAMING OUR WAY FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES PRECEDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE COUNTERBALANCE WE
WERE NOT FULLY RADIATIONAL WITH OUR MIN TEMPS.
THE DP/DT ON SUNDAY WAS A FLATTER AND MORE SUBDUED WAVE ON THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT. NOW MOST OF THE MODELS EITHER KEEP OUR CWA
ENTIRELY DRY OR JUST GRAZE THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THE UKMET
IS WETTEST. GIVEN THE TREND, WE KEPT SUNDAY DRY. THERE IS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE YET TO COME THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT, SO WE BELIEVE THE
GFS WAS WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CAA ON SUNDAY. CONVERSELY, THE
DAY IS NOT EXACTLY GOING TO BE "SUNNY". FOR THIS REASON MAX TEMPS
WERE A BLEND OF THE COLDER GFS AND WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WAVE SHOULD BLOCK MOISTURE FROM GETTING INTO
OUR CWA ONCE THAT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES. THERE MIGHT BE SOME SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES NORTH, BUT FOR NOW WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL NOT BE CHOCK FULL OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
A MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT MORE TYPICAL OF MID FEBRUARY THAN LATE MARCH DAY
ON MONDAY. THE GFS RUN LOOKED LIKE A COLD ONE, AND THUS WE DID NOT
LOWER MAX TEMPS AS MUCH AS IT WOULD SUGGEST. CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLIER THAN
USUAL BEFORE LEVELING OFF.
THEN ONTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WE DID UP POPS TO LIKELY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS MOST MODELS HAVE MEASURABLE PCPN. THE
UKMET WHICH IS THE EASTERNMOST OP SOLUTION TONIGHT MAY NOT, BUT WE
DONT SEE THOSE DETAILS AT THIS TEMPORAL RANGE. THE TELECONNECTION
INDICES ARE STILL SHOWING A POSITIVE SPIKING IN THE PNA AND THE NAO
REMAINING POSITIVE. THE SIMPLISTIC CONCLUSION WOULD BE A DIGGING
BUT PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE (STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE), A FAIRLY RAPID DEEPENING SYSTEM AT THAT SEEMS
LOGICAL. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE SUBDUED THAN THE OP. ON
THE OTHER END, THE OP CAN GGEM WENT OFF THE CONVECTIVE END (TTS
NEAR 60) EAST OF DELAWARE. ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS FARTHER EAST.
WE`RE STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY, SO THIS PACKAGE REFLECTS A COMBO OF
THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS. GOOD ENOUGH TO UP POPS. WE KEPT THE
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE AT THE START FROM AROUND THE FALL LINE SOUTHEAST
BECAUSE OF THE WARM FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND AS A
SURROGATE THAT EVEN IF IT WERE TO SNOW, THE INITIAL LIGHTER
INTENSITY WOULD HAVE PROBLEMS ACCUMULATING. AFTER THAT, WE CHANGE
OUR CWA`S PTYPE OVER TO SNOW AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND SO WOULD
THE PCPN INTENSITY. WE CAN NOT EMPHASIZE ENOUGH THAT NONE OF THIS
IS SET IN STONE YET AS A FASTER INTENSIFICATION AND FARTHER WEST
TRACK THAN THE CURRENT CONSENSUS WOULD MEAN MORE SNOW AND LESS
RAIN AND EVEN ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. EVEN WITH OUR
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS, WIND IS LIKELY TO BE MORE OF A FACTOR THAN
IT HAS BEEN WITH PAST WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THIS EVENT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING OVER THAN CONTINUING ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODELING. BUT GIVEN TIMING IS
NOT PERFECT, WE KEPT A CHANCE OF MORNING SNOW WEDNESDAY. IMPROVEMENT
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MARCH SUN DOES A GOOD JOB OF EITHER MELTING
THE SNOW OR IGNORING ITS EXISTENCE. EITHER WAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, WE BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY. EVEN
WARMER WEATHER LOOKS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AND THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY
OUTLOOK FROM CPC HAS NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR A CHANGE!
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR FLYING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND CREST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY CLR SKIES. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME NW/W GUSTS
THIS MORNING UP TO 20 KTS WHEN MIXING BEGINS...BUT BY
AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF. TONIGHT..THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND SFC WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO SRLY OR SERLY. ONLY
SOME CI/CS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W/SW.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT KTTN TO KRDG IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR. WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OVERALL VFR. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD ARE EASTERN TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THERE ARE STILL A FEW G25 ACROSS THE NRN
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE TREND OF DECREASING GUSTS
SUPPORTS THE LOWERING OF THE SCA FLAG THIS MORNING. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL MOSTLY BE 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVER DEL
BAY...WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WRLY AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL TURN SRLY/SERLY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SPEEDS
EARLY...THEN SLOWLY INCREASING LATE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT, HOWEVER WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER
WATERS MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE WINDS. THERE COULD BE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. GREATER
CONFIDENCE ON THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE SEAS MIGHT ALSO REACH CRITERIA.
MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OR BECOME SUB-ADVISORY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM,
HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY AND THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GORSE/O`HARA/KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
937 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AND INCREASING UP TO 10 TO
15 MPH AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. CONVERGENCE LINE
THAT HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NEAR
AND OFFSHORE OF THE TREASURE COAST SHOULD WEAKEN AS ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MORE UNIFORM INTO THE AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL INDICATES ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MARTIN COUNTY INTO
THE AFTERNOON SO RAIN CHANCES ENDING IN THIS REGION BY LATE
MORNING LOOKS REASONABLE. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
WHILE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE ON THE DECLINE...THERE STILL REMAINS
AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES TODAY. MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IF MORNING CALLS TO BEACH RESCUE
CONFIRM A HIGHER THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
CONDS AT KSUA AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE ONSHORE THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-5 FEET.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
AREA TONIGHT. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...TO
THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BRING
A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL POUR BACK
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
BANDED MIXED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TOWARD EVENING AND TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS THIS CYCLE.
ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS
INDUCED AXIS OF MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. RAP SHORT TERM PROGS SUPPORT RADAR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT AND
A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BANDING OVER PAST FEW HOURS FROM FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. LIMITING FACTOR TO PRECIP RATES TO
THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...AND
PERHAPS SOME LESS THAN IDEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ATOP
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. RAP/NAM CROSS SECTIONS DO DEPICT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY (NEGATIVE EPV) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRENGTHENING
FRONTAL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
SATURATION/INSTABILITY/FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO VERY NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET IS SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY IN
NATURE AND EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TOWARD 12Z. RAP 700 HPA F VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS APPEAR TO SHOW A
STRONG CORRELATION TO PLACEMENT OF CURRENT BAND AND HAVE GENERALLY
UTILIZED EVOLUTION OF THIS FORCING AS A FIRST GUESS AS TO FORECAST
TRENDS THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING CLOSER TO 12Z. COMPETING EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL
WAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER HAVE CREATED A
TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF PTYPE...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS TREND IN UTILIZING THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR AS AN APPROXIMATE
DELINEATION BETWEEN RA/SN AND SN. GIVEN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WET BULBS
AND AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY NATURE OF FORCING MECHANISMS THIS
MORNING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS
TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME EVIDENCE IN RADAR TRENDS OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...SO HESITANT
TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THIS MENTION. MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE WAS TO REMOVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE CPD`S RAPIDLY RISE THIS MORNING AND WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT AS SUPPORTIVE OF ACCUMS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH MAIN FOCUS
SHIFTING TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND PRECIP
CHANCES. NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
MID MS RVR VALLEY WILL LIMIT WARM SECTOR MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH
THIS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD GET
DRAWN NORTHWARD AND POOLED ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE THIS
HANDLED AND ONLY MINOR CHANGE WAS TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
POPS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN INITIAL DRY SOUTHERLY FEED.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANTICIPATED IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MAIN VORT TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT WHICH
COULD EVEN ALLOW AN ISOLD TSRA TO DEVELOP BUT VERY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE ARGUES FOR LEAVING THIS MENTION OUT OF ZFP FOR
NOW. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH SOME INDICATIONS IN LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT COULD
LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT. WARMEST TEMPS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BE MORE FIRMLY IN WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. PRECIP TO EXIT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR EASTERN NOAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PERSISTS...AND
EVEN AMPLIFIES...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY`S BRIEF STINT NEAR 60F.
HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE DATE AND VERY COLD WINTER BUT LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE WEEKEND
FORECAST. CAA WILL BE RAMPING UP BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW BUT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
TO DROP ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE A LAKE RESPONSE THIS FAR SOUTH. MAY BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW TO SUPPORT VERY
LIGHT PRECIP BUT EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE. 850MB TEMPS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER NEGATIVE TEENS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT STILL SOME DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS
REGARDING DEGREE OF VEERING IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DURING THIS
TIME. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING NORTHWEST BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL THETA-E/INSTABILITY FIELDS WARRANT CONTINUED
LOW CHANCE POPS. ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD ALLOW SATURDAY`S HIGHS TO
APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY FAIL TO REACH
THE MID 30S GIVEN 925MB TEMPS AROUND -8C. REDUCED ALBEDO FROM
LARGELY MELTED SNOWPACK AND STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE AN EFFECT BUT STILL DONT EXPECT HIGHS MUCH ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED CVA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW BUT
MOISTURE RETURN IS NEGLIGIBLE AND FORCING RATHER BROAD/WEAK OVER OUR
REGION. LOWER END CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MODERATE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST
OF THESE WAVES IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE LED
TO AN AREA OF BANDED SNOW OVERNIGHT WHICH IS NOW BEGINNING TO PUSH
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO NEXT UPSTREAM
WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST FORCING
WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE OF
INTEREST TONIGHT. SFC WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS TO
SOUTH WITH SOME INCREASE IN GUSTINESS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT KFWA. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED TO RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ALONG AND JUST PRECEDING THE
FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY TEMPO -SHRA MENTION TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
656 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
An upper level trough will move east across the northern plains and
upper Midwest Today. This will cause a cold front across central NE
early this morning to move southward across the CWA during the
morning hours. The front will go through dry without much in the way
of cloud cover. The BKN Cirrus overcast across the southern half of
the CWA should shift southward through the afternoon hours.
Highs Today will be about 10 degrees cooler than Thursday`s highs,
with highs in the lower to mid 60s. north winds will increase to 15
to 20 MPH with gusts of 30 MPH by afternoon.
High and mid level clouds will increase through the night as the
north winds diminish after sunset. Overnight lows will range from
the upper 20s to mid 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
The Strong Canadian high pressure system over the northern plains
will continue to filter unseasonably cold air into the cwa through
the weekend and into the first part of next week. Highs Saturday
through next Tuesday will commonly be in the 40s...although some
readings in the upper 30s are expected near and north of I 70 with
lows in the 20s.
At this time...think the precip Saturday and Sunday will remain
west and south of the county warning area (cwa). However...with
the approach and passage of the next northwest flow shortwave
trough late Sunday night into Monday...increasing warm air
advection....isentropic lift/frontogenetical forcing to the
northwest of the cwa will spread/develop southeastward into the
cwa through the day Monday...exiting the far eastern cwa by late
afternoon. Will leave Sunday night dry...but light snow may not be
too far to the north of the Nebraska border by sunrise Monday
morning. Forecast soundings continue to trend colder...especially
across the northeast corner of the cwa and a little warmer further
south and westward. Will therefore carry precip type as all snow
across the northeast corner and a rain/snow mix elsewhere. Could
see a brief minor accumulation (less than an inch) in the far
northeast if temperatures remain cold enough through
midday...otherwise the snow could melt as it falls if readings are
able to recover into the middle and upper 30s. Elsewhere...no
accumulation of snow is expected at this time and precip should
end before evening. The coldest morning should be Wednesday where
the combination of light east winds and clear skies with the cold
air in place should result in lows from the upper teens to middle
20s. A return to a more zonal flow aloft and the approach of a
shortwave trough by mid week will result in moderating temperatures
into the 50s and 60s by Wednesday and Thursday along with a chance
for rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
VFR condition will prevail through the next 24 hours. Moderate
low-level wind shear was noted at the terminals this morning and
will continue through the mid morning hours. A cold front will
switch winds to the north at 12 to 15 KTS with gusts of 20 to 25
KTS. The winds will subside this evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
North winds will increase behind the surface cold front this
afternoon. Expect north winds to increase to 15 to 20 MPH with gusts
to 30 MPH by afternoon. The NAM and RUC models show deep mixing to
800MB across the central and western portions of the CWA. The deep
mixing should cause minimum relative humidities to drop to 17 to 20
percent across the western half of the CWA during the afternoon. A
combination of low RH`s, wind gusts above 25 MPH and dry fuels will
create extreme fire danger conditions along and west of a
Marysville, to Westmoreland, to Junction City, to Council Grove
line. Therefore a Red Flag Warning will be issued for the area with
extrema fire danger.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening FOR KSZ008>010-020>023-034>037.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Gargan
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
STILL A FEW CONCERNS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WET
BULB TEMPS /1KM MEAN LAYER/ HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY ARND ZERO OR BLW
ZERO ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA...WET BULB
TEMPS ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHICH HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST TWO
AREAS ACROSS WC MN AS SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.
THE SHRTWV ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS WX IS RATHER VIGOROUS IN THE
LATEST WV IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN ND...WITH ENHANCED CLDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE INDICATING STRONG LIFT. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
HOLDING OFF ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN PRIOR TO 1 AM...BUT LOCAL RADAR
DOES SHOW A BETTER ENHANCEMENT/INCREASE ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN IN THE
PAST HR...WHICH IS PROBABLY A GOOD INDICATION OF THE STRONGER LIFT.
CIGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING...BUT MOISTURE BLW 70H IS STILL RATHER DRY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. IT WILL TAKE A FEW HRS BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO SATURATE AND LEAD TO A BETTER CHC OF PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR BLW 70H...WILL HOLD OFF ON
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EC MN UNTIL AFT 15Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
DEPTH IS HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF MOISTURE/LIFT THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS EC MN AFT 15Z...AND ACROSS WC WI AFT 17Z.
DUE TO SFC TEMPS RISING AND THE COLDER WET BULB TEMPS /1KM MEAN
LAYER/ FREEZING RAIN IS LESS OF A POSSIBILITY ACROSS EC MN...EXCEPT
SOME OF THE LOW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN WC WI IF THESE WET BULB TEMPS
ARE WRONG. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP WET BULB TEMPS AND MOISTURE
LACKING UNTIL AFT 15Z...PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS EC MN/WC WI WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET/SNOW...POSSIBLY CHG OVER TO RAIN BY LATE
MORNING AS SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S. CENTRAL MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 30S.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WC WI DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTN...AND ACROSS THE REST OF MN BY MID TO LATE AFTN. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION BASED ON MOISTURE DEPTH. NO OTHER CHGS FOR TONIGHT AS SKIES
SLOWLY CLR. THERE IS ANOTHER CONCERN WITH WIND SPDS THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW MN DUE TO STRONG MIXING AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE MAY BE A WIND ADVISORY ISSUED IF
CONDS WARRANT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES
AS A 1030MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR ZERO
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...WHICH IS AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF MARCH.
STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS A CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD AND IA AND
THEN A PV BOOT KICKS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HAVE RETAINED THE HIGHEST POPS /ALBEIT ONLY 30-40 PERCENT/ ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WHERE FORCING IS A BIT BETTER WITH
THE CLIPPER. THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER FOR MONDAY...SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH FUTURE RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND PERSISTS AND JUSTIFIES AN
INCREASE IN POPS.
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 20S TO YIELD A RATHER CHILLY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE NOTABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH...WITH READINGS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 35
AND 45 DEGREES. SAID TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 28.00Z GFS AND ECMWF WAS NOT
SHABBY...WITH BOTH MODELS FEATURING A LOW CIRCA 995MB. WHILE TRACK
AND PRECIP TYPE DETAILS ARE STILL QUITE VARIABLE...LARGE SCALE
AGREEMENT SUPPLIED THE CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP
WOULD STATE 0FF AS RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
MAIN CHGS FROM PREVIOUS TAFS WAS TO LOWER THE CHC/S OF SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS DUE TO PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NORTH OF MPX TAFS WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS
NEAR KAXN REPORTING -SN/PL OR -RA. MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG THE HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS WAS MAINLY IN
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
TIMING OF THE MVFR CIGS ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THIS
MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE NOTED IN ND WHICH SHOULD MOVE SE ACROSS
WC MN BY 15Z...AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN MN BY 18Z. 92H MOISTURE
AND CAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN.
STRONG GUSTY WNW/NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
THIS AFTN...WITH SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 KTS AT KRWF/KAXN. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFT 3Z.
KMSP...
INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF -SN AS MOST
OF THE OBS WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES HAVE ONLY REPORTED -SN. LATEST
RAP ALSO INDICATED /1KM LAYER/ WET BULB TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BLW ZERO /0C/ ACROSS EASTERN MN. SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD
BE -SN AT THE ONSET. BY MID/LATE MORNING...SFC TEMPS AND SOME
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET/RAIN. HOWEVER...BY THIS
TIME...MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
AIRPORT GROUNDS. S/SE WINDS ARND 6-8 KTS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
TO THE SW/WSW BY 16-18Z...THEN MORE WNW/NW BY 19-20Z. GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ARND 20-22Z WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 28 KTS
POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFT 3Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 15-20 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-067-073>075-082-083-091-
092.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1033 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ROLLA TO BELCOURTE. EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
QUICK UPDATE FOR SNOW LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING. ALSO ADDED FLURRIES NORTH CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
SURFACE PRESSURE BUBBLE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT
THIS TIME. RAP H1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SHOWING STRONGEST
GRADIENT MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH GETTING SOME
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH IN ROLETTE THIS MORNING...UPSTREAM OBS AND
PRESSURE RISE SUGGEST STRONGEST WINDS WILL END UP IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IS. CLEARING POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS SNOW IS NOW MOVING OUT
OF THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE ADVISORY. 09Z RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATES A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AROUND JAMESTOWN
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH TO INCLUDE JAMESTOWN...AS WELL AS
CARRINGTON AND HARVEY. PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEFT THE EXPIRATION
TIME ALONE FOR NOW BUT EXPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER AND WIND HEADLINES NOW THROUGH TODAY.
CURRENTLY...COMPACT MID LEVEL S`WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...RIGHT NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MY NORTHWEST AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FROPA AS PRESSURE RISES INCREASE AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. WARP AROUND PRECIPITATION NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER
EXPECTED...MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE RIGHT NOW. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
POPS WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED NOW THAT COLDER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE STATE. REGARDING HEADLINES...WOULD LIKE TO PULL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENTIRELY...HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST NOW
INCREASING AND SNOW STILL FALLING WITHIN THE ADVISORY...WILL
MAINTAIN AS IS FOR NOW AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AREAS OF
ADVERSE WINTER WEATHER WITH TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. FULLY EXPECT WE CAN
PULL THE ENTIRE ADVISORY BY 12 OR 15Z...POSSIBLY CONVERTING SOME
OF THE WSW TO A WIND ADVISORY.
MAIN PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING NOW THROUGH 18Z
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE RISES TAPER OFF AND GRADIENT
FORCING RELAXES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SURFACE HIGH WILL END PRECIPITATION NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH
18Z...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS
PAINT SOME PVA INCOMING FROM MONTANA.
DRY AND COLD TONIGHT WITH A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRY AIR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED NORTH...LOWER TEENS SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODERATING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.
ON SUNDAY...MODELS BRING A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRUSHING THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE STATE. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEPING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DRY...WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BRING MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH
THE GLOBAL GEM IN THE MIDDLE. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
ANOTHER MODEL DIFFERENCE CROPS UP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF...DEVELOPS A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AIDED BY A STRONG JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...PRECIPITATION SPREADS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...WITH A MUCH WEAKER UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND IS DRY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS LATEST SOLUTION IS A DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUN AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
ONE ADDITIONAL FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADIENT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDING DOWN A WESTERN U.S RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY BOTH THE 21 MAR 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF. A
QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS BUFR DATA INDICATES AN ELEVATED MIXING LAYER
HEIGHT MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY TAPPING INTO 30 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
EVENT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS
SASK/MANT WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY. MAIN
HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35
KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KJMS...AND SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
THE IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND AREAS BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR MOST AREAS AFTER 15Z THEN VFR BY 18Z. VFR AT KJMS AND KDIK
MAY BE LATER...AFTER 20Z. GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-036-037-048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
QUICK UPDATE FOR SNOW LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING. ALSO ADDED FLURRIES NORTH CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
SURFACE PRESSURE BUBBLE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT
THIS TIME. RAP H1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SHOWING STRONGEST
GRADIENT MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH GETTING SOME
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH IN ROLETTE THIS MORNING...UPSTREAM OBS AND
PRESSURE RISE SUGGEST STRONGEST WINDS WILL END UP IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IS. CLEARING POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS SNOW IS NOW MOVING OUT
OF THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE ADVISORY. 09Z RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATES A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AROUND JAMESTOWN
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH TO INCLUDE JAMESTOWN...AS WELL AS
CARRINGTON AND HARVEY. PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEFT THE EXPIRATION
TIME ALONE FOR NOW BUT EXPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER AND WIND HEADLINES NOW THROUGH TODAY.
CURRENTLY...COMPACT MID LEVEL S`WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...RIGHT NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MY NORTHWEST AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FROPA AS PRESSURE RISES INCREASE AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. WARP AROUND PRECIPITATION NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER
EXPECTED...MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE RIGHT NOW. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
POPS WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED NOW THAT COLDER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE STATE. REGARDING HEADLINES...WOULD LIKE TO PULL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENTIRELY...HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST NOW
INCREASING AND SNOW STILL FALLING WITHIN THE ADVISORY...WILL
MAINTAIN AS IS FOR NOW AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AREAS OF
ADVERSE WINTER WEATHER WITH TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. FULLY EXPECT WE CAN
PULL THE ENTIRE ADVISORY BY 12 OR 15Z...POSSIBLY CONVERTING SOME
OF THE WSW TO A WIND ADVISORY.
MAIN PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING NOW THROUGH 18Z
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE RISES TAPER OFF AND GRADIENT
FORCING RELAXES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SURFACE HIGH WILL END PRECIPITATION NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH
18Z...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS
PAINT SOME PVA INCOMING FROM MONTANA.
DRY AND COLD TONIGHT WITH A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRY AIR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED NORTH...LOWER TEENS SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODERATING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.
ON SUNDAY...MODELS BRING A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRUSHING THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE STATE. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEPING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DRY...WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BRING MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH
THE GLOBAL GEM IN THE MIDDLE. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
ANOTHER MODEL DIFFERENCE CROPS UP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF...DEVELOPS A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AIDED BY A STRONG JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...PRECIPITATION SPREADS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...WITH A MUCH WEAKER UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND IS DRY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS LATEST SOLUTION IS A DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUN AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
ONE ADDITIONAL FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADIENT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDING DOWN A WESTERN U.S RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY BOTH THE 21 MAR 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF. A
QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS BUFR DATA INDICATES AN ELEVATED MIXING LAYER
HEIGHT MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY TAPPING INTO 30 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
EVENT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS
SASK/MANT WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY. MAIN
HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35
KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KJMS...AND SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
THE IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND AREAS BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR MOST AREAS AFTER 15Z THEN VFR BY 18Z. VFR AT KJMS AND KDIK
MAY BE LATER...AFTER 20Z. GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-025-037-048-
051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
842 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
SURFACE PRESSURE BUBBLE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT
THIS TIME. RAP H1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SHOWING STRONGEST
GRADIENT MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH GETTING SOME
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH IN ROLETTE THIS MORNING...UPSTREAM OBS AND
PRESSURE RISE SUGGEST STRONGEST WINDS WILL END UP IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IS. CLEARING POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS SNOW IS NOW MOVING OUT
OF THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE ADVISORY. 09Z RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATES A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AROUND JAMESTOWN
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH TO INCLUDE JAMESTOWN...AS WELL AS
CARRINGTON AND HARVEY. PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEFT THE EXPIRATION
TIME ALONE FOR NOW BUT EXPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER AND WIND HEADLINES NOW THROUGH TODAY.
CURRENTLY...COMPACT MID LEVEL S`WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...RIGHT NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MY NORTHWEST AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FROPA AS PRESSURE RISES INCREASE AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. WARP AROUND PRECIPITATION NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER
EXPECTED...MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE RIGHT NOW. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
POPS WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED NOW THAT COLDER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE STATE. REGARDING HEADLINES...WOULD LIKE TO PULL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENTIRELY...HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST NOW
INCREASING AND SNOW STILL FALLING WITHIN THE ADVISORY...WILL
MAINTAIN AS IS FOR NOW AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AREAS OF
ADVERSE WINTER WEATHER WITH TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. FULLY EXPECT WE CAN
PULL THE ENTIRE ADVISORY BY 12 OR 15Z...POSSIBLY CONVERTING SOME
OF THE WSW TO A WIND ADVISORY.
MAIN PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING NOW THROUGH 18Z
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE RISES TAPER OFF AND GRADIENT
FORCING RELAXES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SURFACE HIGH WILL END PRECIPITATION NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH
18Z...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS
PAINT SOME PVA INCOMING FROM MONTANA.
DRY AND COLD TONIGHT WITH A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRY AIR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED NORTH...LOWER TEENS SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODERATING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.
ON SUNDAY...MODELS BRING A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRUSHING THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE STATE. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEPING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DRY...WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BRING MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH
THE GLOBAL GEM IN THE MIDDLE. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
ANOTHER MODEL DIFFERENCE CROPS UP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF...DEVELOPS A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AIDED BY A STRONG JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...PRECIPITATION SPREADS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...WITH A MUCH WEAKER UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND IS DRY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS LATEST SOLUTION IS A DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUN AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
ONE ADDITIONAL FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADIENT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDING DOWN A WESTERN U.S RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY BOTH THE 21 MAR 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF. A
QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS BUFR DATA INDICATES AN ELEVATED MIXING LAYER
HEIGHT MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY TAPPING INTO 30 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
EVENT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 827 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS
SASK/MANT WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY. MAIN
HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35
KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KJMS...AND SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
THE IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND AREAS BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR MOST AREAS AFTER 15Z THEN VFR BY 18Z. VFR AT KJMS AND KDIK
MAY BE LATER...AFTER 20Z. GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-025-037-048-
051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
643 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS SNOW IS NOW MOVING OUT
OF THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE ADVISORY. 09Z RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATES A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AROUND JAMESTOWN
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH TO INCLUDE JAMESTOWN...AS WELL AS
CARRINGTON AND HARVEY. PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEFT THE EXPIRATION
TIME ALONE FOR NOW BUT EXPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER AND WIND HEADLINES NOW THROUGH TODAY.
CURRENTLY...COMPACT MID LEVEL S`WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...RIGHT NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MY NORTHWEST AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FROPA AS PRESSURE RISES INCREASE AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. WARP AROUND PRECIPITATION NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER
EXPECTED...MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE RIGHT NOW. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
POPS WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED NOW THAT COLDER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE STATE. REGARDING HEADLINES...WOULD LIKE TO PULL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENTIRELY...HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST NOW
INCREASING AND SNOW STILL FALLING WITHIN THE ADVISORY...WILL
MAINTAIN AS IS FOR NOW AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AREAS OF
ADVERSE WINTER WEATHER WITH TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. FULLY EXPECT WE CAN
PULL THE ENTIRE ADVISORY BY 12 OR 15Z...POSSIBLY CONVERTING SOME
OF THE WSW TO A WIND ADVISORY.
MAIN PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING NOW THROUGH 18Z
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE RISES TAPER OFF AND GRADIENT
FORCING RELAXES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SURFACE HIGH WILL END PRECIPITATION NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH
18Z...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS
PAINT SOME PVA INCOMING FROM MONTANA.
DRY AND COLD TONIGHT WITH A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRY AIR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED NORTH...LOWER TEENS SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODERATING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.
ON SUNDAY...MODELS BRING A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRUSHING THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE STATE. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEPING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DRY...WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BRING MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH
THE GLOBAL GEM IN THE MIDDLE. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
ANOTHER MODEL DIFFERENCE CROPS UP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF...DEVELOPS A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AIDED BY A STRONG JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...PRECIPITATION SPREADS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...WITH A MUCH WEAKER UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND IS DRY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS LATEST SOLUTION IS A DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUN AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
ONE ADDITIONAL FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADIENT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDING DOWN A WESTERN U.S RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY BOTH THE 21 MAR 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF. A
QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS BUFR DATA INDICATES AN ELEVATED MIXING LAYER
HEIGHT MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY TAPPING INTO 30 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
EVENT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. SOME SNOW AND LOW CIGS ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OR LOWER WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MID TO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ023-025-037-048-
051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
852 AM PDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE
UMPQUA BASIN AND PARTS OF THE COQUILLE BASIN. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
LATE THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT SOME DATA SUGGEST
IT`S A GOOD BET WE`LL HAVE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE ROGUE...ILLINOIS...APPLEGATE AND SHASTA
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WE`LL LIKELY UPGRADE
THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAF CYCLE.
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
THIS WILL BRING MVFR TO KRBG FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
BEFORE BURNING OFF BY AROUND 17Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO AROUND
30KT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST NEAR KOTH. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...NORTH GALES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO TODAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. GALES WILL NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER ZONE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STEEP TO
VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 40 NM
OFFSHORE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL EXIST OVER THE
ENTIRE WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT, SO WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD EASE SOMEWHAT INTO SATURDAY. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WETTER AND WINDIER PATTERN WITH
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL FRONTS MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM PDT FRI MAR 21 2014/
DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. THIS IS BRINGING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, ALOFT NORTHWEST FLOW IS
BRINGING A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE AREA TODAY BUT EXPECT
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THEN ON THE WEEKEND , A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANGE TO A WETTER AND COOLER
REGIME.
THIS MORNING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE AREA. ALSO
LIGHT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED IN MANY INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT
AREAS OF FREEZING AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY, THE
APPLEGATE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY. GIVEN
DEW POINTS IN THESE AREAS RANGING FROM 22 TO 30 DEGREES F EARLY
THIS MORNING, EXPECT LOCATIONS THAT ARE PROTECTED FROM WIND TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER
MODOC COUNTY AND OVER AREAS FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE THE NAM AND RUC KEEP THE AREA DRY. GIVEN THE LACK OF
GOOD MOISTURE EXPECT MAINLY JUST SOME CLOUD COVER WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE, ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING, INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING.
THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN
SOME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVES INLAND OVER THE REGION, THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
INLAND AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN. MEANWHILE INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
INLAND ON MONDAY.
THEN MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MOIST AND COOL
PATTERN DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW SETS
UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SERIES OF
FRONTS INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH MODELS SHOW APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY
EVENING AND MOVING INLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH,
MAINLY ABOVE 7000 FEET, AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN LOWER BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 5000 FEET. /CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ024-026.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
CAZ081.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR PZZ356.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEDFORD OR
441 AM PDT FRI MAR 21 2014
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
.DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. THIS IS BRINGING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, ALOFT NORTHWEST FLOW IS
BRINGING A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE AREA TODAY BUT EXPECT
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THEN ON THE WEEKEND , A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANGE TO A WETTER AND COOLER
REGIME.
THIS MORNING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE AREA. ALSO
LIGHT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED IN MANY INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. AS A
RESULT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT
AREAS OF FREEZING AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY, THE
APPLEGATE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY. GIVEN
DEW POINTS IN THESE AREAS RANGING FROM 22 TO 30 DEGREES F EARLY
THIS MORNING, EXPECT LOCATIONS THAT ARE PROTECTED FROM WIND TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER
MODOC COUNTY AND OVER AREAS FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE THE NAM AND RUC KEEP THE AREA DRY. GIVEN THE LACK OF
GOOD MOISTURE EXPECT MAINLY JUST SOME CLOUD COVER WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE, ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING, INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EVENING.
THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN
SOME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MOVES INLAND OVER THE REGION, THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
INLAND AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN. MEANWHILE INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
INLAND ON MONDAY.
THEN MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MOIST AND COOL
PATTERN DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW SETS
UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SERIES OF
FRONTS INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A MOIST
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH MODELS SHOW APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY
EVENING AND MOVING INLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH,
MAINLY ABOVE 7000 FEET, AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN LOWER BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 5000 FEET. /CC
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAF CYCLE.
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
THIS WILL BRING MVFR TO KRBG FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
BEFORE BURNING OFF BY AROUND 17Z. PATCHY IFR FOG IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
THE MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COQUILLE VALLEY AND THE LOWER UMPQUA BASIN NEAR
REEDSPORT. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO AROUND 30KT WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST NEAR KOTH. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...NORTH GALES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO TODAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. GALES WILL NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER ZONE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STEEP TO
VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 40 NM
OFFSHORE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL EXIST OVER THE
ENTIRE WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT, SO WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD EASE SOMEWHAT INTO SATURDAY. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WETTER AND WINDIER PATTERN WITH
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL FRONTS MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ024-026.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.
CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
CAZ081.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR PZZ356.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
$$
MAS/CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
645 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTASOTA MOVING TOWARD WI...IS
WHERE MOST OF THE TIME WAS SPENT THIS SHIFT. LOOKS LIKE POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTH...WINDY COLD FRONT...AND COLD TEMPERATURE SURGE ALL HAD TO
BE ANALYZED.
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-FORMED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EAST OF KBIS AT 08Z WITH A NICE BUT NOT DRAMATIC BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER THE MN/ND BORDER AREA. SOME GOOD DARKENING BEHIND THE
WAVE INDICATIVE OF THE DIPOLE NATURE TO THE IMPULSE...LIFT THEN
SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RAOBS ARE INTERESTINGLY DRY WITH KABR MAYBE THE
MOST DRY CONSIDERING IT IS JUST EAST OF THE FORCING AT THAT TIME.
THE LAPSE RATE IS QUITE STEEP THOUGH AT KABR WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WITH A MID-LEVEL SATURATED PARCEL. LATEST RAP
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE WELL MATCHED TO THE RADAR BAND NEAR KABR. HOWEVER...THAT ECHO
HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST. OVERALL...ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL CLOUD AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE RULE OVER THE
DAKOTASOTA WITH DRY AIR BATTLES ONGOING.
DOUBLE FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH AN OCCLUDED N-S FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS
AND THE COLDER /BELOW 0C AT 925MB/ SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM BISMARCK
INTO SRN MT AT 08Z. THIS IS THE FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE GOOD
PRESSURE RISE...GUSTY WINDS...AND COLDER AIR THIS EVENING.
PRESSURE RISES IN SD RIGHT NOW OF 4 MB/3 HR BUT THOSE SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE SECONDARY FRONT BECOMES THE ONE TO
WATCH. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS STEADY STATE
OR SLIGHTLY FILLS WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSIDERING WE ARE IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE AMOUNT OF SATURATION WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND WHERE...AND ALSO THE TIMING. THE 21.00Z
GFS WAS VERY FAST AND AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN AREA BY MID MORNING WITH DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS SOLUTION IS TOO FAST AND THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER ON THE WET SIDE GIVEN 00Z RAOBS AND CURRENT
TRENDS ON RADAR...AND COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
21.00Z/06Z NAM/ECMWF/LATEST RAP SOLUTION CONSENSUS WITH LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY THE I-94 AND NORTH AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS EXCELLENT AND DEEP QG FORCING FORCING IN A
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT / OVER 8C/KM / IN THIS DEEPLY
DRY AIR MASS AND BELIEVE THIS WILL PROVIDE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT IT SEEMS VERY DRY
AND WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/BELOW 0C...SO HYDROMETEORS WILL
EITHER EVAPORATE/SUBLIME...OR REACH THE SURFACE AND BRIEFLY BE OF
ANOTHER TYPE BEFORE TRANSITING TO SN OR RA. SEEMED THE BIG PICTURE
WAS A RA/SN FORECAST BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES /FREEZING
LEVEL/. MOST OF THE AREA WOULD BE RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM
RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. BUT AGAIN...MOST AREAS SOUTHWEST OF I-94
WILL STRUGGLE WITH SATURATION DURING THE MAIN FORCING PERIOD
AROUND MID-DAY TODAY. THEN...QG- SUBSIDENCE BEGINS ALOFT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
SLOWER TIMING AND ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT HAS DELAYED THE ONSET
OF GUSTY WINDS UNTIL THIS EVENING. THAT...AND DRY AIR IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL PROMOTE 50S FOR HIGHS. THIS EVENING A
POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISE WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE IN THE AREAS OF
SERN MN AND NERN IA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE THAT THESE VALUES WILL BE
SEEN HOWEVER IS STARTING TO LOWER AS THE PRESSURE RISE/FALL
COUPLET ISNT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL BRING STEEPER 0-1.5KM AGL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLY SOME
RW-/SW- LINGERING. THUS...HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE EVENING...SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY BE A DRIZZLE.
MOST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...AND WITH
A WARMER DAY FOR ROAD WARMING...FZDZ THREATS SEEM PRETTY LOW THIS
EVE. IT IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL HAVE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-94 TO AROUND AN INCH
BEFORE A RA/SN MIX OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
ENJOY THE WARM TODAY CUZ THE NEXT DAYS WILL FAVOR TRAVEL AGENTS
BOOKING FLIGHTS TO THE EQUATOR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ABOUT 3F AND INCREASED WINDS...OH
JOY. THE WIND CHILL NOW NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
SERN MN ALL DAY. MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALIES IN THE
-2 RANGE SUGGEST NO RECORDS BUT LITTLE DIURNAL CURVE /MAYBE 5F/.
SOME CLOUDS COULD BE AROUND UNDER THE INVERSION UNTIL AFTERNOON AS
WELL. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...AND BEYOND...
MONDAY-TUESDAY BRINGS A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE TO THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR TUE-WED. BUT THEN...HOLD YOUR EASTER
BONNET...IT LOOKS WARMER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
WITH AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO AND CYCLONE BRINGING A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS CYCLONE FOR LATE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MUCH WARMER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
A LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS MN/WI TODAY. THE
MAIN FORCING LIFT WITH THESE FEATURES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE TAF
SITES AND CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST ROUND OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAINLY BE MID LEVEL...WITH CIG HGTS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE
6K-10K FT RANGE. A SECOND...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL USHER A STRONG...CANADIAN
HIGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BEHIND THE FRONT IS SOME LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MVFR/IFR CIGS BACK IN ND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
MOISTURE LOOKS TO ARRIVE A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH SOME
DIURNAL MIXING...INITIAL CIGS LOOK TO BE IN THE 3K-4K FT RANGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING AND FOR
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN AND THE AIRMASS COOLS UNDER AN
INVERSION.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20KTS AND GUSTY...
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 20-30KTS MAINLY IN THE 02Z-08Z TIME-
FRAME...ARE EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
WHILE THE AIR WILL BE COLD THIS WEEKEND...RECORDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
RECORD LOWS ARE ALL BELOW ZERO FOR MARCH 22-23.
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 22/23...
LA CROSSE...MARCH 22 / 9F IN 1888...MARCH 23 / 17F IN 1940
ROCHESTER...MARCH 22 / 6F IN 1888...MARCH 23 / 10F IN 1965
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RRS
CLIMATE......BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
252 PM MDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...STILL A RATHER COMPLICATED SITUATION FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY IN TERMS OF SNOW COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. INITIALLY...AIRMASS
IS STILL QUITE DRY WITH MAINLY AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO DUE TO WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
ARIZONA. AT THE LOW LEVELS...NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW AS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS. AS THIS EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...THE LOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN UP. VERY LITTLE
MODEL CONSENSUS AS THE HRRR/GFS TRIES TO RAMP UP PRECIP AROUND 00Z
AND EARLY EVENING...WHILE RAP IS LESS BULLISH ON SPREADING PRECIP
ON THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE INITIAL DRYNESS...SEEMS THE MODELS ARE A
LITTLE EARLY IN DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME WEAK UPWARD ASCENT SO
THAT WILL HELP A BIT IN THE PRECIP PROCESS. MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER IN THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS AND
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SHIFT MUCH OF THE PRECIP
FURTHER NORTH OF DENVER...AND ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN LARIMER AND
WELD COUNTIES.
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS ON THE DRY SIDE ALONG WITH DENVER CYCLONE
IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FROM
NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A RAMP-UP OF SNOWFALL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME WEAK ASCENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF. HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS A BIT FROM EARLIER FORECAST SO NOW LOOKS
LIKE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ON
THE PLAINS AND 3-7 INCHES OVER THE EAST SLOPES. TEMPERATURES
COLDER ON SATURDAY AS READINGS DROP INTO THE 30S BEHIND NEXT COLD
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE SINKING
SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM ALONG CONDITIONS TO START CLEARING OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. MODELS DISAGREEING ON FLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEW GFS SHOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
DRASTICALLY DIMINISH THE SNOW...HOWEVER OTHER MODELS SHOWING A
CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WOULD SUPPORT SNOW
ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA. COULD POSSIBLY SEE ANOTHER
1-3 INCHES OVER THIS AREA WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE LESS THAN AN INCH. HAVE DECREASED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD WARM UP INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE
PLAINS AND 30S AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SWEEP INTO NORTHEASTER COLORADO. MOST OF
THIS ENERGY SEEMS TO STAY EAST HOWEVER...WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE IT KICKS OUT EAST MONDAY EVENING. THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AS
AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...THEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE PACIFIC AND OVER THE WESTERN STATES TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM
THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN A CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO FRIDAY AS WE REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRENDS IS FOR A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT. BEST WINDOW OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 04-08Z BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO FAR SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL IN THIS WINDOW STILL LOW. BEST CHANCE OF
SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT FRONT BRINGS IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE MOISTURE. SNOW ACCUMULATION AT LOCAL
TERMINALS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH TONIGHT AND 1-3 INCHES ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. RUNWAYS WILL MAINLY BE WET
BUT SOME SLUSH MAY ACCUMULATE IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
521 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...THE SPRING-LIKE DAY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY EVEN SEE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-39. THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL SEE A DRY WEEKEND...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING BOTH NW INDIANA AND FAR NE ILLINOIS TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY...
A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER NW MINNESOTA WITH A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM
FRONT HAS ADVANCED FROM MOLINE IL THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND HAVE
NOTICED WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO COME AROUND TO SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. STILL EXPECTING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S DOWNTOWN AND
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY ONCE THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH. FAR NE
IL...LAKE COUNTY...WILL HOLD ON TO SE WINDS THE LONGEST AND WILL
MOST LIKELY MISS OUT ON 50S TODAY. THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN IS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY BECAUSE
THE LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT AND COLD
AIR BEGINS TO FLOOD INTO THE REGION.
RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ALONG THE WARM FRONT RIGHT
NOW NORTH OF BURLINGTON IOWA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THOSE SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST...BUT NOT BUYING INTO THAT THEORY AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN LARGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD
HAVE AMPLE FORCING FROM THE FRONT...LOW...AND IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. AS SUCH HAVE A BAND OF LOW END CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP OUT OF ANY GIVEN
SHOWER...EXCEPT FOR OVER NW INDIANA. FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AND MAY
SEE UPWARDS OF 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN. STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT...BUT MORE THAN THE REST OF THE CWA.
TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL IL AND TO AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS NW INDIANA TONIGHT. TEMPS REBOUND A LITTLE SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S DOWN SOUTH. EXPECTING THE
MORNING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING AS FLOW
TURNS OFF OF THE LAKE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE
PLAINS...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW SITUATION. RIGHT
NOW NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY THE SET UP AS DELTA TS ARE MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT THE MODELED WIND FIELDS SHOW GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER THE
LAKE. THE LOCAL ARW IS ALREADY INDICATING A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
THE POPS A BIT MORE BROAD AT THIS POINT WITH MAX POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE. HAVE THE BAND STARTING OVER NW INDIANA...SHIFTING EAST TO
NEAR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN IL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN
SHIFTING BACK ACROSS NW INDIANA AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN IF THE SNOW WILL HAPPEN AND
WHERE IT WILL FALL...KEPT PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT. HAVE LESS THAN HALF
INCH JUST ALONG THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA FOR NOW.
FOR TEMPS...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID
20S. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND ROTATES EAST
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE CWA TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS BRIEF RIDGING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND/OR
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
BE TALKING ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK
DECENT. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS SOUNDINGS...THE ONLY ISSUE I
SEE IS A SHRINKING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE EVENT GOES ON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK. THIS OF COURSE WILL PLAY A
ROLL IN PRECIP TYPES...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE PRECIP
OVER THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
RISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRECIP TYPES LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOWS PATH AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE TEMPS. FOR NOW USED THE
FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS TO CREATE THE WEATHER GRIDS.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SOUTH WINDS TURNING WEST EARLY THIS EVENING THEN NORTHWEST BY
MID EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE TIL LATE EVENING.
* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM MID EVENING ON.
* SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF ORD NOW LEAVING BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS NEAR RFD BUT THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EASTWARD INTO NW ILLINOIS SO
WINDS WILL BE TURNING WEST AT RFD IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME
SPRINKLES LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT...BUT COULD BRIEFLY WET RUNWAYS. AM CONCERNED ABOUT
WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND HAVE BUMPED GUSTS UP
TO 28-30 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD BEHIND
THE FRONT. AM SEEING 30+ KT GUSTS UPSTREAM WITH HIGHEST GUSTS
WHERE CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED SO AM EXPECTING THAT MAGNITUDE MAY BE
REDUCED THANKS TO DARKNESS AND CLOUD COVER BY THE TIME THE
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS WELL BUT MUCH OF THE
UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER MAY BE DIURNALLY DRIVE AND MAY SCATTER
BEFORE ARRIVAL.
MDB
FROM 18Z...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH VFR CONDS PREVAILING
AT ALL AIRFIELDS. WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE...THIS
HAS HELPED TO TURN WINDS ALONG THE ILLINOIS LAKESHORE TO MORE OF A
080-100 DEG RANGE WITH A WEAK LAKE BREEZE. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MAKING MUCH OF A PUSH TOWARDS MDW/ORD AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECT
WINDS AT THOSE TAF SITES TO REMAIN 120-140 DEG. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS STEADILY LIFTING NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TAF SITES ARND 21-22Z...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS QUICKLY VEERING
TO 190-240 DEG. IN ADDITION BETTER MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE AND
RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO ARND 5KFT AGL. STILL VFR CONDS. A FEW
HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING SOME SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-04Z ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN...HOWEVER WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE NEAR SFC...THIS MAY END UP BEING VIRGA
OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. SO HAVE HELD MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF
CURRENT TAFS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SAT. IN ADDITION COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME HAVE
ONLY BROUGHT CIGS DOWN TO 3KFT AGL SAT MID-MORNING. CIGS SHUD
RETURN TO VFR CONDS BY EARLY SAT AFTN. ANOTHER CHALLENGE FOR SAT
IS THAT WINDS MAY FLOP OVER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTN HOURS. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS NE WINDS WILL ONLY OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE...SO WILL MAINTAIN NW WINDS AT ORD/MDW.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEED TRENDS...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS AROUND 30 KT MID EVENING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WOULD LIGHT THROUGH MID
EVENING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN AND SUB VFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE -RA AND SUB VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
348 PM CDT
VARYING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES
PUSH OVER THE LAKE. SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST...EXPECT
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND WINDS OF
20-25 KT IN THE NEARSHORE TONIGHT. WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE MARKED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...9 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
348 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...THE SPRING-LIKE DAY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY EVEN SEE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-39. THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL SEE A DRY WEEKEND...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING BOTH NW INDIANA AND FAR NE ILLINOIS TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY...
A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER NW MINNESOTA WITH A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM
FRONT HAS ADVANCED FROM MOLINE IL THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND HAVE
NOTICED WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO COME AROUND TO SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. STILL EXPECTING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S DOWNTOWN AND
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY ONCE THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH. FAR NE
IL...LAKE COUNTY...WILL HOLD ON TO SE WINDS THE LONGEST AND WILL
MOST LIKELY MISS OUT ON 50S TODAY. THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN IS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY BECAUSE
THE LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT AND COLD
AIR BEGINS TO FLOOD INTO THE REGION.
RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ALONG THE WARM FRONT RIGHT
NOW NORTH OF BURLINGTON IOWA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THOSE SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST...BUT NOT BUYING INTO THAT THEORY AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN LARGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD
HAVE AMPLE FORCING FROM THE FRONT...LOW...AND IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. AS SUCH HAVE A BAND OF LOW END CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP OUT OF ANY GIVEN
SHOWER...EXCEPT FOR OVER NW INDIANA. FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AND MAY
SEE UPWARDS OF 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN. STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT...BUT MORE THAN THE REST OF THE CWA.
TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL IL AND TO AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS NW INDIANA TONIGHT. TEMPS REBOUND A LITTLE SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S DOWN SOUTH. EXPECTING THE
MORNING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING AS FLOW
TURNS OFF OF THE LAKE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE
PLAINS...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW SITUATION. RIGHT
NOW NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY THE SET UP AS DELTA TS ARE MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT THE MODELED WIND FIELDS SHOW GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER THE
LAKE. THE LOCAL ARW IS ALREADY INDICATING A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
THE POPS A BIT MORE BROAD AT THIS POINT WITH MAX POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE. HAVE THE BAND STARTING OVER NW INDIANA...SHIFTING EAST TO
NEAR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN IL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN
SHIFTING BACK ACROSS NW INDIANA AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN IF THE SNOW WILL HAPPEN AND
WHERE IT WILL FALL...KEPT PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT. HAVE LESS THAN HALF
INCH JUST ALONG THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA FOR NOW.
FOR TEMPS...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID
20S. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND ROTATES EAST
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE CWA TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS BRIEF RIDGING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND/OR
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
BE TALKING ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK
DECENT. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS SOUNDINGS...THE ONLY ISSUE I
SEE IS A SHRINKING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE EVENT GOES ON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK. THIS OF COURSE WILL PLAY A
ROLL IN PRECIP TYPES...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE PRECIP
OVER THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
RISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRECIP TYPES LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOWS PATH AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE TEMPS. FOR NOW USED THE
FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS TO CREATE THE WEATHER GRIDS.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SE WINDS OF 110-140 DEG WILL VEER 190-240 DEG ARND 21Z. SPEEDS
WILL HOVER ARND 10-13KT THEN WITH VEERING WINDS INCREASE WITH
GUSTS NEARING 20-22KT.
* POSSIBLY SPRINKLES IN FAR NE ILLINOIS BETWEEN 01-04Z.
* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFT 04Z THROUGH DAYBREAK SAT.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH VFR CONDS PREVAILING
AT ALL ARIFIELDS. WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE...THIS
HAS HELPED TO TURN WINDS ALONG THE ILLINOIS LAKESHORE TO MORE OF A
080-100 DEG RANGE WITH A WEAK LAKE BREEZE. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MAKING MUCH OF A PUSH TOWARDS MDW/ORD AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECT
WINDS AT THOSE TAF SITES TO REMAIN 120-140 DEG. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS STEADILY LIFTING NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TAF SITES ARND 21-22Z...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS QUICKLY VEERING
TO 190-240 DEG. IN ADDITION BETTER MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE AND
RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO ARND 5KFT AGL. STILL VFR CONDS. A FEW
HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING SOME SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-04Z ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN...HOWEVER WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE NEAR SFC...THIS MAY END UP BEING VIRGA
OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. SO HAVE HELD MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF
CURRENT TAFS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SAT. IN ADDITION COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME HAVE
ONLY BROUGHT CIGS DOWN TO 3KFT AGL SAT MID-MORNING. CIGS SHUD
RETURN TO VFR CONDS BY EARLY SAT AFTN. ANOTHER CHALLENGE FOR SAT
IS THAT WINDS MAY FLOP OVER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTN HOURS. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS NE WINDS WILL ONLY OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE...SO WILL MAINTAIN NW WINDS AT ORD/MDW.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH 4Z SAT.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST AFT 4Z SAT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ORD/MDW WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN AND SUB VFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE -RA AND SUB VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
348 PM CDT
VARYING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES
PUSH OVER THE LAKE. SOUTHEAST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST...EXPECT
SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND WINDS OF
20-25 KT IN THE NEARSHORE TONIGHT. WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BUT WITH
SPEEDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE MARKED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...9 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
258 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
257 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...THE SPRING-LIKE DAY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAY EVEN SEE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-39. THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL SEE A DRY WEEKEND...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING BOTH NW INDIANA AND FAR NE ILLINOIS TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY...
A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER NW MINNESOTA WITH A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE WARM
FRONT HAS ADVANCED FROM MOLINE IL THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND HAVE
NOTICED WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO COME AROUND TO SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. STILL EXPECTING TO REACH THE UPPER 50S DOWNTOWN AND
SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY ONCE THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH. FAR NE
IL...LAKE COUNTY...WILL HOLD ON TO SE WINDS THE LONGEST AND WILL
MOST LIKELY MISS OUT ON 50S TODAY. THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN IS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY BECAUSE
THE LOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT AND COLD
AIR BEGINS TO FLOOD INTO THE REGION.
RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ALONG THE WARM FRONT RIGHT
NOW NORTH OF BURLINGTON IOWA. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THOSE SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST...BUT NOT BUYING INTO THAT THEORY AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN LARGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD
HAVE AMPLE FORCING FROM THE FRONT...LOW...AND IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. AS SUCH HAVE A BAND OF LOW END CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP OUT OF ANY GIVEN
SHOWER...EXCEPT FOR OVER NW INDIANA. FORCING IS MAXIMIZED AND MAY
SEE UPWARDS OF 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN. STILL NOTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT...BUT MORE THAN THE REST OF THE CWA.
TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL IL AND TO AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS NW INDIANA TONIGHT. TEMPS REBOUND A LITTLE SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S DOWN SOUTH. EXPECTING THE
MORNING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HAVE CLOUDS INCREASING AS FLOW
TURNS OFF OF THE LAKE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN
CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT BEHIND THE
TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE
PLAINS...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW SITUATION. RIGHT
NOW NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY THE SET UP AS DELTA TS ARE MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT THE MODELED WIND FIELDS SHOW GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER THE
LAKE. THE LOCAL ARW IS ALREADY INDICATING A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. KEPT
THE POPS A BIT MORE BROAD AT THIS POINT WITH MAX POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE. HAVE THE BAND STARTING OVER NW INDIANA...SHIFTING EAST TO
NEAR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN IL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN
SHIFTING BACK ACROSS NW INDIANA AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN IF THE SNOW WILL HAPPEN AND
WHERE IT WILL FALL...KEPT PRECIP AMOUNTS LIGHT. HAVE LESS THAN HALF
INCH JUST ALONG THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA FOR NOW.
FOR TEMPS...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID
20S. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND ROTATES EAST
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE CWA TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS BRIEF RIDGING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND/OR
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
BE TALKING ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK
DECENT. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS SOUNDINGS...THE ONLY ISSUE I
SEE IS A SHRINKING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE EVENT GOES ON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT LOW SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK. THIS OF COURSE WILL PLAY A
ROLL IN PRECIP TYPES...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE PRECIP
OVER THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
RISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRECIP TYPES LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOWS PATH AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE TEMPS. FOR NOW USED THE
FORECASTED SURFACE TEMPS TO CREATE THE WEATHER GRIDS.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SE WINDS OF 110-140 DEG WILL VEER 190-240 DEG ARND 21Z. SPEEDS
WILL HOVER ARND 10-13KT THEN WITH VEERING WINDS INCREASE WITH
GUSTS NEARING 20-22KT.
* POSSIBLY SPRINKLES IN FAR NE ILLINOIS BETWEEN 01-04Z.
* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFT 04Z THROUGH DAYBREAK SAT.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN...WITH VFR CONDS PREVAILING
AT ALL ARIFIELDS. WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE...THIS
HAS HELPED TO TURN WINDS ALONG THE ILLINOIS LAKESHORE TO MORE OF A
080-100 DEG RANGE WITH A WEAK LAKE BREEZE. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MAKING MUCH OF A PUSH TOWARDS MDW/ORD AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECT
WINDS AT THOSE TAF SITES TO REMAIN 120-140 DEG. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS STEADILY LIFTING NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TAF SITES ARND 21-22Z...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS QUICKLY VEERING
TO 190-240 DEG. IN ADDITION BETTER MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE AND
RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO ARND 5KFT AGL. STILL VFR CONDS. A FEW
HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING SOME SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN 00-04Z ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN...HOWEVER WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE NEAR SFC...THIS MAY END UP BEING VIRGA
OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. SO HAVE HELD MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF
CURRENT TAFS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SAT. IN ADDITION COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FLOW BACK ACROSS THE TAF
SITES...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME HAVE
ONLY BROUGHT CIGS DOWN TO 3KFT AGL SAT MID-MORNING. CIGS SHUD
RETURN TO VFR CONDS BY EARLY SAT AFTN. ANOTHER CHALLENGE FOR SAT
IS THAT WINDS MAY FLOP OVER TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTN HOURS. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS NE WINDS WILL ONLY OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE...SO WILL MAINTAIN NW WINDS AT ORD/MDW.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH 4Z SAT.
* MEDIUM/HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST AFT 4Z SAT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ORD/MDW WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN AND SUB VFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
TUESDAY...CHANCE -SN AND SUB VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE -RA AND SUB VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
437 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY FRIDAY BUT THEN NEW LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE
SHAPE FARTHER SOUTH OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME PRIMARY
LOW. THIS WILL THEN TRACK OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
START OUT SOUTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE LAKE...BUT THEN AS LOW
APPROACHES...WINDS WILL BACK MORE EASTERLY NORTH OF THE LOW PATH.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE LAKE. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE BY MID
EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THEN NORTH FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. EXPECTING FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KT
OVER THE SOUTH OPEN WATERS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN EASING ON SATURDAY.
AFTER A PERIOD OF STEADY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
TOPPING OUT AT 15 TO 20 KT INTO SUNDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE IN
STORE UNTIL THE NEXT WEAK LOW/COLD FRONT AND SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR BRING STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BACK FOR A TIME
ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES MID WEEK AND WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...THIS WILL SET UP A PERIOD OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
LATE IN THE WEEK.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...THE TRACK OF THE LOW TODAY WILL
DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY WESTERLY WINDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING. A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK WILL LIKELY
HOLD OFF THE STRONGER WINDS TO MID TO LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO
SEE IF WAVES BUILD MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR INDIANA
NEARSHORE ZONES.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...9 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
202 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST OF AREA. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
BANDED MIXED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TOWARD EVENING AND TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS THIS CYCLE.
ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS
INDUCED AXIS OF MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. RAP SHORT TERM PROGS SUPPORT RADAR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT AND
A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BANDING OVER PAST FEW HOURS FROM FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. LIMITING FACTOR TO PRECIP RATES TO
THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...AND
PERHAPS SOME LESS THAN IDEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ATOP
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. RAP/NAM CROSS SECTIONS DO DEPICT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY (NEGATIVE EPV) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRENGTHENING
FRONTAL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
SATURATION/INSTABILITY/FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO VERY NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET IS SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY IN
NATURE AND EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TOWARD 12Z. RAP 700 HPA F VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS APPEAR TO SHOW A
STRONG CORRELATION TO PLACEMENT OF CURRENT BAND AND HAVE GENERALLY
UTILIZED EVOLUTION OF THIS FORCING AS A FIRST GUESS AS TO FORECAST
TRENDS THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING CLOSER TO 12Z. COMPETING EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL
WAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER HAVE CREATED A
TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF PTYPE...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS TREND IN UTILIZING THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR AS AN APPROXIMATE
DELINEATION BETWEEN RA/SN AND SN. GIVEN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WET BULBS
AND AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY NATURE OF FORCING MECHANISMS THIS
MORNING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS
TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME EVIDENCE IN RADAR TRENDS OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...SO HESITANT
TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THIS MENTION. MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE WAS TO REMOVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE CPD`S RAPIDLY RISE THIS MORNING AND WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT AS SUPPORTIVE OF ACCUMS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH MAIN FOCUS
SHIFTING TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND PRECIP
CHANCES. NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
MID MS RVR VALLEY WILL LIMIT WARM SECTOR MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH
THIS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD GET
DRAWN NORTHWARD AND POOLED ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE THIS
HANDLED AND ONLY MINOR CHANGE WAS TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
POPS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN INITIAL DRY SOUTHERLY FEED.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANTICIPATED IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MAIN VORT TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT WHICH
COULD EVEN ALLOW AN ISOLD TSRA TO DEVELOP BUT VERY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE ARGUES FOR LEAVING THIS MENTION OUT OF ZFP FOR
NOW. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH SOME INDICATIONS IN LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT COULD
LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT. WARMEST TEMPS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BE MORE FIRMLY IN WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. PRECIP TO EXIT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR EASTERN NOAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PERSISTS...AND
EVEN AMPLIFIES...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY`S BRIEF STINT NEAR 60F.
HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE DATE AND VERY COLD WINTER BUT LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE WEEKEND
FORECAST. CAA WILL BE RAMPING UP BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW BUT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
TO DROP ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE A LAKE RESPONSE THIS FAR SOUTH. MAY BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW TO SUPPORT VERY
LIGHT PRECIP BUT EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE. 850MB TEMPS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER NEGATIVE TEENS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT STILL SOME DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS
REGARDING DEGREE OF VEERING IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DURING THIS
TIME. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING NORTHWEST BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL THETA-E/INSTABILITY FIELDS WARRANT CONTINUED
LOW CHANCE POPS. ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD ALLOW SATURDAY`S HIGHS TO
APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY FAIL TO REACH
THE MID 30S GIVEN 925MB TEMPS AROUND -8C. REDUCED ALBEDO FROM
LARGELY MELTED SNOWPACK AND STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE AN EFFECT BUT STILL DONT EXPECT HIGHS MUCH ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED CVA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW BUT
MOISTURE RETURN IS NEGLIGIBLE AND FORCING RATHER BROAD/WEAK OVER OUR
REGION. LOWER END CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MODERATE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT. FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOMEWHERE EITHER SIDE OF THE
MI/OH/IN STATE LINE. MODELS STILL VARY ON BREAKOUT OF PRECIP WITH
STEADIER PRECIP MORE LIKELY AT KSBN THAN KFWA. HOWEVER AT THIS
POINT HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO GROUPS AND JUST ADJUSTED ONSET A BIT
WITH CONTINUED SLOWER TRENDS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN POST FRONTAL BUT DON`T LOOK TO GET TOO OUT
OF HAND AS DRIER AIR WILL BE TRYING TO WORK IN ALREADY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
111 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST OF AREA. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
BANDED MIXED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TOWARD EVENING AND TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS THIS CYCLE.
ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS
INDUCED AXIS OF MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. RAP SHORT TERM PROGS SUPPORT RADAR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT AND
A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BANDING OVER PAST FEW HOURS FROM FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. LIMITING FACTOR TO PRECIP RATES TO
THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...AND
PERHAPS SOME LESS THAN IDEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ATOP
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. RAP/NAM CROSS SECTIONS DO DEPICT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY (NEGATIVE EPV) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRENGTHENING
FRONTAL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
SATURATION/INSTABILITY/FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO VERY NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET IS SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY IN
NATURE AND EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TOWARD 12Z. RAP 700 HPA F VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS APPEAR TO SHOW A
STRONG CORRELATION TO PLACEMENT OF CURRENT BAND AND HAVE GENERALLY
UTILIZED EVOLUTION OF THIS FORCING AS A FIRST GUESS AS TO FORECAST
TRENDS THIS MORNING...WITH GENERAL WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING CLOSER TO 12Z. COMPETING EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL
WAA AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER HAVE CREATED A
TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF PTYPE...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS TREND IN UTILIZING THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR AS AN APPROXIMATE
DELINEATION BETWEEN RA/SN AND SN. GIVEN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WET BULBS
AND AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY NATURE OF FORCING MECHANISMS THIS
MORNING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS
TIME. HAVE SEEN SOME EVIDENCE IN RADAR TRENDS OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...SO HESITANT
TO COMPLETELY REMOVE THIS MENTION. MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE WAS TO REMOVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE CPD`S RAPIDLY RISE THIS MORNING AND WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE
NOT AS SUPPORTIVE OF ACCUMS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH MAIN FOCUS
SHIFTING TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND PRECIP
CHANCES. NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
MID MS RVR VALLEY WILL LIMIT WARM SECTOR MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH
THIS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD GET
DRAWN NORTHWARD AND POOLED ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE THIS
HANDLED AND ONLY MINOR CHANGE WAS TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
POPS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN INITIAL DRY SOUTHERLY FEED.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANTICIPATED IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MAIN VORT TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT WHICH
COULD EVEN ALLOW AN ISOLD TSRA TO DEVELOP BUT VERY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE ARGUES FOR LEAVING THIS MENTION OUT OF ZFP FOR
NOW. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH SOME INDICATIONS IN LATEST
GUIDANCE THAT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT COULD
LIMIT TEMP RISES A BIT. WARMEST TEMPS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BE MORE FIRMLY IN WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MIXING AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. PRECIP TO EXIT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TRANSITION BACK TO COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR EASTERN NOAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PERSISTS...AND
EVEN AMPLIFIES...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER TODAY`S BRIEF STINT NEAR 60F.
HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE DATE AND VERY COLD WINTER BUT LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR THE WEEKEND
FORECAST. CAA WILL BE RAMPING UP BY 12Z SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW BUT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
TO DROP ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE A LAKE RESPONSE THIS FAR SOUTH. MAY BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/CYCLONIC FLOW TO SUPPORT VERY
LIGHT PRECIP BUT EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
WHERE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE. 850MB TEMPS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER NEGATIVE TEENS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT STILL SOME DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS
REGARDING DEGREE OF VEERING IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DURING THIS
TIME. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING NORTHWEST BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL THETA-E/INSTABILITY FIELDS WARRANT CONTINUED
LOW CHANCE POPS. ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF COLDEST AIR SHOULD ALLOW SATURDAY`S HIGHS TO
APPROACH THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY FAIL TO REACH
THE MID 30S GIVEN 925MB TEMPS AROUND -8C. REDUCED ALBEDO FROM
LARGELY MELTED SNOWPACK AND STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE AN EFFECT BUT STILL DONT EXPECT HIGHS MUCH ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK...ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
COLD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED CVA WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW BUT
MOISTURE RETURN IS NEGLIGIBLE AND FORCING RATHER BROAD/WEAK OVER OUR
REGION. LOWER END CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MODERATE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014
ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST
OF THESE WAVES IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE LED
TO AN AREA OF BANDED SNOW OVERNIGHT WHICH IS NOW BEGINNING TO PUSH
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO NEXT UPSTREAM
WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST FORCING
WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE OF
INTEREST TONIGHT. SFC WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS TO
SOUTH WITH SOME INCREASE IN GUSTINESS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT KFWA. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED TO RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ALONG AND JUST PRECEDING THE
FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY TEMPO -SHRA MENTION TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
103 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
STILL A FEW CONCERNS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WET
BULB TEMPS /1KM MEAN LAYER/ HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY ARND ZERO OR BLW
ZERO ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA...WET BULB
TEMPS ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WHICH HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST TWO
AREAS ACROSS WC MN AS SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.
THE SHRTWV ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS WX IS RATHER VIGOROUS IN THE
LATEST WV IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN ND...WITH ENHANCED CLDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE INDICATING STRONG LIFT. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
HOLDING OFF ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN PRIOR TO 1 AM...BUT LOCAL RADAR
DOES SHOW A BETTER ENHANCEMENT/INCREASE ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN IN THE
PAST HR...WHICH IS PROBABLY A GOOD INDICATION OF THE STRONGER LIFT.
CIGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING...BUT MOISTURE BLW 70H IS STILL RATHER DRY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. IT WILL TAKE A FEW HRS BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO SATURATE AND LEAD TO A BETTER CHC OF PRECIPITATION.
THEREFORE...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR BLW 70H...WILL HOLD OFF ON
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EC MN UNTIL AFT 15Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MEASURABLE AMTS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
DEPTH IS HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF MOISTURE/LIFT THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS EC MN AFT 15Z...AND ACROSS WC WI AFT 17Z.
DUE TO SFC TEMPS RISING AND THE COLDER WET BULB TEMPS /1KM MEAN
LAYER/ FREEZING RAIN IS LESS OF A POSSIBILITY ACROSS EC MN...EXCEPT
SOME OF THE LOW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN WC WI IF THESE WET BULB TEMPS
ARE WRONG. BASED ON THE LATEST RAP WET BULB TEMPS AND MOISTURE
LACKING UNTIL AFT 15Z...PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS EC MN/WC WI WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET/SNOW...POSSIBLY CHG OVER TO RAIN BY LATE
MORNING AS SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S. CENTRAL MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY SNOWFALL WILL QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPS RISE INTO
THE 30S.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WC WI DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTN...AND ACROSS THE REST OF MN BY MID TO LATE AFTN. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION BASED ON MOISTURE DEPTH. NO OTHER CHGS FOR TONIGHT AS SKIES
SLOWLY CLR. THERE IS ANOTHER CONCERN WITH WIND SPDS THIS AFTN ACROSS
THE TYPICAL AREAS OF WC/SW MN DUE TO STRONG MIXING AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE MAY BE A WIND ADVISORY ISSUED IF
CONDS WARRANT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES
AS A 1030MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR ZERO
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...WHICH IS AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF MARCH.
STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AS A CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD AND IA AND
THEN A PV BOOT KICKS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HAVE RETAINED THE HIGHEST POPS /ALBEIT ONLY 30-40 PERCENT/ ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WHERE FORCING IS A BIT BETTER WITH
THE CLIPPER. THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER FOR MONDAY...SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH FUTURE RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND PERSISTS AND JUSTIFIES AN
INCREASE IN POPS.
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 20S TO YIELD A RATHER CHILLY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE NOTABLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH...WITH READINGS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 35
AND 45 DEGREES. SAID TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 28.00Z GFS AND ECMWF WAS NOT
SHABBY...WITH BOTH MODELS FEATURING A LOW CIRCA 995MB. WHILE TRACK
AND PRECIP TYPE DETAILS ARE STILL QUITE VARIABLE...LARGE SCALE
AGREEMENT SUPPLIED THE CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP
WOULD STATE 0FF AS RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST
IN EXCESS OF 30KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20KTS. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AND GO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MORNING.
HOWEVER...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME HEATING CUMULUS...SO
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS LATER SATURDAY MORNING.
KMSP...
NO CHANGES FROM THE GENERAL DISCUSSION. HAVE FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL GO BELOW 1700FT THIS AFTERNOON BASED
ON THE UPSTREAM OBS AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS W 5 KT.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR AND -SN POSSIBLE. WINDS VRBL AT 05KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041-047-048-
054>057-064-065-067-073>075-082-083-091-092.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
313 PM MDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...
SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON PER RADAR
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. FRONTOGENESIS HAD DECREASED OVER
THE REGION PER THE RAP MODEL AND CHANNELED VORTICITY WAS MOVING
NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. BASED ON THE KBLX VAD WIND
PROFILE...WINDS WERE NE UP TO 7000 FT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
SE IN THE FLOW LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL GENERATE MORE FRONTOGENESIS
OVER THE AREA AND ENHANCE THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN NE UPSLOPE
AREAS. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS LOOKED FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF SHERIDAN COUNTY AS WELL
AS S BIG HORN COUNTY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT WITH GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH
FORECAST OVER THESE AREAS. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SLICK ROADS AGAIN...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR
MIDNIGHT MDT THROUGH 4 PM MDT SAT. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS W OF
KBIL AS WELL TONIGHT...AS MODEL QPF AMOUNTS WERE SIMILAR TO THOSE
IN KSHR. HOWEVER...TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DID NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY
THERE AT THIS TIME.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA ON SAT. FRONTOGENESIS
AND MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE
WAVE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER S
CENTRAL AND SE AREAS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BASED ON EXPECTED MIXING. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...SEEN OFF
THE COAST OF N BC ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
APPROACH THE REGION IN NW FLOW SAT NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. JET SUPPORT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUN AS
WELL. HAD SOME CHANCE POPS OVER NW AND W AREAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
SAT NIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WILL SINK SW OVER THE AREA ON SUN AND
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT. MODELS WERE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH THEIR QPF SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH THE WRF BEING
DRIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS HOLDING
ONTO THE QPF LONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR NOW...WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER NW/N CENTRAL ZONES SUN MORNING AS MODELS DID
AGREE ON THIS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. SHIFTED BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SW HALF OF THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWING THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTOGENESIS. LEFT
BROADBRUSH MAINLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT.
HIGHLIGHTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PLACES LIKE THE FOOTHILLS
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT ON SYSTEM DETAILS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR SUN. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM THANKS
TO PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT ORIGINATING ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE 12 UTC
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WELL ON THAT BASIC THEME...WITH INITIALLY COLD
AIR OF CONTINENTAL ORIGINS LINGERING MON...THEN QUICKLY EXITING BY
TUE AS TRANSIENT /BUT WELL-FORMED/ MID-LEVEL RIDGING SURGES OUT OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS GOOD
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN THIS EVOLUTION...AND SINCE THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED WITH THAT OVERALL IDEA AS
WELL...WE ELECTED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY TUE. A BIAS-
CORRECTED...MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS LED THE WAY WITH THOSE CHANGES.
BY WED...MODEL SPREAD STARTS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF A
LARGER-SCALE PACIFIC TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION WED OR
THU. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL BE ELEVATED IN THAT PERIOD...WHICH
REMAINS SUPPORTED BY MOS-BASED POPS THAT ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. WE
MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THAT WED AND THU PERIOD ONCE
GUIDANCE SETTLES IN ON COMMON TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALSO LIKELY IN THAT TIME FRAME...SO HIGHS COULD
FALL BACK A BIT AGAIN BY THU TOO. SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT
AND NORTH CENTRAL WY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF IFR WEATHER ARE
FROM 08 TO 16 UTC IN THE KBIL AND KSHR AREAS. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 015/026 018/036 018/036 019/048 031/047 028/045 029/049
85/S 26/O 33/J 21/B 12/W 33/W 22/W
LVM 009/026 015/037 015/035 019/049 030/047 029/045 027/045
63/S 27/O 53/J 31/B 13/W 33/W 32/W
HDN 015/027 017/038 017/039 018/048 029/050 027/046 028/050
75/S 16/O 43/J 21/B 12/W 33/W 22/W
MLS 013/025 015/036 019/037 015/045 027/047 028/041 027/049
22/S 14/O 32/J 11/B 12/W 22/W 22/W
4BQ 014/026 014/036 018/037 016/047 029/050 028/044 029/049
56/S 14/O 42/J 11/B 12/W 33/W 22/W
BHK 010/023 011/032 017/034 011/039 022/046 026/041 024/047
11/B 13/S 32/J 11/B 12/W 22/W 22/W
SHR 015/025 012/038 016/037 016/048 028/047 026/044 025/046
+8/S 26/O 54/J 31/B 12/W 44/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4
PM MDT SATURDAY FOR ZONE 38.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4
PM MDT SATURDAY FOR ZONE 99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1141 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
THE SNOW HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. GETTING CLOUD STREETS WITH ASSOCIATED LIGHT FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL. TRENDED THE FORECAST TO THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ROLLA TO BELCOURTE. EXPANDED THE WIND
ADVISORY NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
QUICK UPDATE FOR SNOW LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING. ALSO ADDED FLURRIES NORTH CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
SURFACE PRESSURE BUBBLE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT
THIS TIME. RAP H1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND SHOWING STRONGEST
GRADIENT MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH GETTING SOME
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH IN ROLETTE THIS MORNING...UPSTREAM OBS AND
PRESSURE RISE SUGGEST STRONGEST WINDS WILL END UP IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IS. CLEARING POISED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS SNOW IS NOW MOVING OUT
OF THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE ADVISORY. 09Z RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATES A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL AROUND JAMESTOWN
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH TO INCLUDE JAMESTOWN...AS WELL AS
CARRINGTON AND HARVEY. PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEFT THE EXPIRATION
TIME ALONE FOR NOW BUT EXPECT IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER AND WIND HEADLINES NOW THROUGH TODAY.
CURRENTLY...COMPACT MID LEVEL S`WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...RIGHT NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MY NORTHWEST AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE COLD FROPA AS PRESSURE RISES INCREASE AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. WARP AROUND PRECIPITATION NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER
EXPECTED...MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE RIGHT NOW. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
POPS WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED NOW THAT COLDER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE STATE. REGARDING HEADLINES...WOULD LIKE TO PULL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENTIRELY...HOWEVER WITH WINDS JUST NOW
INCREASING AND SNOW STILL FALLING WITHIN THE ADVISORY...WILL
MAINTAIN AS IS FOR NOW AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AREAS OF
ADVERSE WINTER WEATHER WITH TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. FULLY EXPECT WE CAN
PULL THE ENTIRE ADVISORY BY 12 OR 15Z...POSSIBLY CONVERTING SOME
OF THE WSW TO A WIND ADVISORY.
MAIN PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING NOW THROUGH 18Z
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE RISES TAPER OFF AND GRADIENT
FORCING RELAXES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SURFACE HIGH WILL END PRECIPITATION NORTH TO SOUTH NOW THROUGH
18Z...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WHERE MODELS
PAINT SOME PVA INCOMING FROM MONTANA.
DRY AND COLD TONIGHT WITH A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRY AIR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING. SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED NORTH...LOWER TEENS SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
THE MAIN FEATURE IN AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...MODERATING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.
ON SUNDAY...MODELS BRING A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRUSHING THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE STATE. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEPING SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DRY...WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BRING MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH
THE GLOBAL GEM IN THE MIDDLE. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
ANOTHER MODEL DIFFERENCE CROPS UP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF...DEVELOPS A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AIDED BY A STRONG JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...PRECIPITATION SPREADS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS...WITH A MUCH WEAKER UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND IS DRY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS LATEST SOLUTION IS A DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUN AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
ONE ADDITIONAL FEATURE WORTH MENTIONING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRADIENT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDING DOWN A WESTERN U.S RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY BOTH THE 21 MAR 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF. A
QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS BUFR DATA INDICATES AN ELEVATED MIXING LAYER
HEIGHT MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY TAPPING INTO 30 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
EVENT IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS
SASK/MANT WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY. MAIN
HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35
KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KJMS...AND SCATTERED SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. THE IFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR
MOST 20Z. OTHERWISE MVFR GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 00Z.
GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-036-037-048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
416 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
BARTLESVILLE TO NEAR BRISTOW ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...GUSTING UP AROUND 15 TO TO 25 MPH...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO NEAR 30 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. CURRENTLY...A CU FIELD HAD
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITHIN AN
AREA OF A WEAKENING CAP. LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL IN-HOUSE MODEL RUNS
INDICATE PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE
MENTIONED LOCATIONS AND PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEER AND MODERATE LAPSE RATES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD ALLOW FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPS TO POTENTIALLY BECOME STRONG WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL BEING POSSIBLE. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING LOOK TO BE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE CWA.
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS..WHILE MORE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY RETURN MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WITH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP TEMPS WARM BACK UP NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ONCE AGAIN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT EXITS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 41 57 34 51 / 10 20 20 10
FSM 47 60 40 56 / 50 40 50 10
MLC 48 58 40 54 / 40 30 30 10
BVO 38 56 31 50 / 10 20 20 10
FYV 40 57 33 49 / 30 20 40 10
BYV 39 55 32 48 / 20 20 40 10
MKO 43 58 35 52 / 30 30 30 10
MIO 39 54 30 48 / 10 10 30 0
F10 44 57 36 52 / 20 30 30 10
HHW 53 58 44 57 / 60 50 40 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1208 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
DESPITE THE VIGOROUS LOOK TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN
AND HEADING INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN PER WATER VAPOR...THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF IT HAS BEEN VERY UNEVENTFUL. RADAR RETURNS
ARE JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES...BUT LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN ON THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING AS WELL AS SURFACE
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS HAS PRECLUDED MUCH OF THESE RADAR RETURNS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. WITH RICE LAKE REPORTING 3/4 MILE
VISIBILITY...STILL FEEL CONFIDENT THAT TAYLOR COUNTY WILL SEE SOME
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
THERE...CONFIDENCE HAS REALLY DROPPED AND THEREFORE LOWERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUITE A BIT. IN FACT...EVEN THE BAND OF MID
CLOUDS WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT HAS BEEN THINNING OUT
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THEREFORE...HAVE ALSO WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON
SKY. GIVEN THE INCREASED SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST...HAVE ALSO
BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES...PUSHING THEM TOWARDS THE
MAXIMUM OF ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.
AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY DIVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN WITH PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS ALONG/BEHIND
IT...ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING FROM 20-35 KT. PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MOST PART HAS DRIED UP...AND WITH RAP/HRRR PROGS FOR THE EVENING
REALLY BACKING OFF ON EVENING PRECIPITATION...HAVE GREATLY LOWERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT. NOW ONLY HAVE SOME
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES GIVEN THE FORECAST OF WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE
STRATUS LAYER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD WI...IS
WHERE MOST OF THE TIME WAS SPENT THIS SHIFT. LOOKS LIKE POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE...WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTH...WINDY COLD FRONT...AND COLD TEMPERATURE SURGE ALL HAD TO
BE ANALYZED.
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-FORMED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EAST OF KBIS AT 08Z WITH A NICE BUT NOT DRAMATIC BAROCLINIC
LEAF OVER THE MN/ND BORDER AREA. SOME GOOD DARKENING BEHIND THE
WAVE INDICATIVE OF THE DIPOLE NATURE TO THE IMPULSE...LIFT THEN
SUBSIDENCE. 00Z RAOBS ARE INTERESTINGLY DRY WITH KABR MAYBE THE
MOST DRY CONSIDERING IT IS JUST EAST OF THE FORCING AT THAT TIME.
THE LAPSE RATE IS QUITE STEEP THOUGH AT KABR WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WITH A MID-LEVEL SATURATED PARCEL. LATEST RAP
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE WELL MATCHED TO THE RADAR BAND NEAR KABR. HOWEVER...THAT ECHO
HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST. OVERALL...ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL CLOUD AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE RULE OVER THE
DAKOTAS WITH DRY AIR BATTLES ONGOING.
DOUBLE FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH AN OCCLUDED N-S FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS
AND THE COLDER /BELOW 0C AT 925MB/ SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM BISMARCK
INTO SRN MT AT 08Z. THIS IS THE FRONT THAT WILL BRING THE GOOD
PRESSURE RISE...GUSTY WINDS...AND COLDER AIR THIS EVENING.
PRESSURE RISES IN SD RIGHT NOW OF 4 MB/3 HR BUT THOSE SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE SECONDARY FRONT BECOMES THE ONE TO
WATCH. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS STEADY STATE
OR SLIGHTLY FILLS WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSIDERING WE ARE IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE AMOUNT OF SATURATION WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND WHERE...AND ALSO THE TIMING. THE 21.00Z
GFS WAS VERY FAST AND AGGRESSIVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN AREA BY MID MORNING WITH DEEPLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS SOLUTION IS TOO FAST AND THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER ON THE WET SIDE GIVEN 00Z RAOBS AND CURRENT
TRENDS ON RADAR...AND COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
21.00Z/06Z NAM/ECMWF/LATEST RAP SOLUTION CONSENSUS WITH LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MAINLY THE I-94 AND NORTH AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS EXCELLENT AND DEEP QG FORCING FORCING IN A
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT / OVER 8C/KM / IN THIS DEEPLY
DRY AIR MASS AND BELIEVE THIS WILL PROVIDE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A WARM LAYER ALOFT...BUT IT SEEMS VERY DRY
AND WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR/BELOW 0C...SO HYDROMETEORS WILL
EITHER EVAPORATE/SUBLIME...OR REACH THE SURFACE AND BRIEFLY BE OF
ANOTHER TYPE BEFORE TRANSITING TO SN OR RA. SEEMED THE BIG PICTURE
WAS A RA/SN FORECAST BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES /FREEZING
LEVEL/. MOST OF THE AREA WOULD BE RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM
RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. BUT AGAIN...MOST AREAS SOUTHWEST OF I-94
WILL STRUGGLE WITH SATURATION DURING THE MAIN FORCING PERIOD
AROUND MID-DAY TODAY. THEN...QG- SUBSIDENCE BEGINS ALOFT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
SLOWER TIMING AND ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT HAS DELAYED THE ONSET
OF GUSTY WINDS UNTIL THIS EVENING. THAT...AND DRY AIR IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL PROMOTE 50S FOR HIGHS. THIS EVENING A
POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISE WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE IN THE AREAS OF
SERN MN AND NERN IA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE THAT THESE VALUES WILL BE
SEEN HOWEVER IS STARTING TO LOWER AS THE PRESSURE RISE/FALL
COUPLET ISNT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL BRING STEEPER 0-1.5KM AGL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLY SOME
RW-/SW- LINGERING. THUS...HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE EVENING...SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY BE A DRIZZLE.
MOST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...AND WITH
A WARMER DAY FOR ROAD WARMING...FZDZ THREATS SEEM PRETTY LOW THIS
EVE. IT IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL HAVE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-94 TO AROUND AN INCH
BEFORE A RA/SN MIX OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
ENJOY THE WARM TODAY CUZ THE NEXT DAYS WILL FAVOR TRAVEL AGENTS
BOOKING FLIGHTS TO THE EQUATOR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ABOUT 3F AND INCREASED WINDS...OH
JOY. THE WIND CHILL NOW NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
SERN MN ALL DAY. MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALIES IN THE
-2 RANGE SUGGEST NO RECORDS BUT LITTLE DIURNAL CURVE /MAYBE 5F/.
SOME CLOUDS COULD BE AROUND UNDER THE INVERSION UNTIL AFTERNOON AS
WELL. SUNDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...AND BEYOND...
MONDAY-TUESDAY BRINGS A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE TO THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR TUE-WED. BUT THEN...HOLD YOUR EASTER
BONNET...IT LOOKS WARMER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
WITH AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO AND CYCLONE BRINGING A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS CYCLONE FOR LATE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
A DRY AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST MN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AROUND 21Z AT RST AND 22Z AT LSE. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE EVENING...AND HIGHEST AT RST. ALONG WITH THE INCREASE OF
WINDS...EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES. THERE
COULD BE SOME FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AS WELL FOR THE EVENING...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF OR REDUCE THE VISIBILITY FOR. LOOK
FOR BRISK CONDITIONS WITH THE MVFR STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. HEADING INTO SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFILTRATE THE UPPER MIDWEST. DRY AIR AND A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO SCATTER THE MVFR CEILINGS OUT
AND DIMINISH WINDS SOMEWHAT DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014
WHILE THE AIR WILL BE COLD THIS WEEKEND...RECORDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
RECORD LOWS ARE ALL BELOW ZERO FOR MARCH 22-23.
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 22/23...
LA CROSSE...MARCH 22 / 9F IN 1888...MARCH 23 / 17F IN 1940
ROCHESTER...MARCH 22 / 6F IN 1888...MARCH 23 / 10F IN 1965
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...AJ
CLIMATE......BAUMGARDT