Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/20/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1002 AM PDT Tue Mar 18 2014
.Synopsis...
Areas of breezy north and east winds will continue this morning,
otherwise dry weather and lighter winds are expected through the
remainder of the week.
&&
.Discussion...
A few gusty spots in the Valley and Sierra this morning due a
pressure gradient set up by a weak shortwave trough passing to the
northeast. While the RUC13 shows this trough passing just to the
NE of the Lassen area by 11am, satellite imagery indicates a dry
airmass associated with it as skies remain mostly clear in that
area (except for a few low clouds in extreme NE CA).
While several sites in the Northern Sacramento Valley including
KRDD and KRBL are nearing or just reaching wind advisory criteria
this morning, the pressure gradients are expected to relax by
around 11am, meaning the current winds are likely the strongest of
the day. Thus, have opted to not issue an advisory which would be
marginal and only last a couple hours. Expecting gusty northeast
to east winds over the Sierra as well through the early afternoon.
Have updated the forecast through this afternoon to better
reflect current winds. Otherwise, previous forecast remains on
track. -DVC
.Previous Discussion... issued at 330 AM PDT...
Breezy north winds continue across the region early this morning
as pressure gradients remain tight (MFR to SAC is still around 13
mbs). Some high clouds continue to brush by associated with weak
passing waves, otherwise skies are clear. Temperatures are a mixed
bag early this morning with wind- sheltered areas tending to see
much cooler readings early this morning while some windy spots are
actually a little warmer than 24 hours ago.
Short-wave ridging will move over the region, and coupled with
weakening pressure gradients will result in lighter winds by this
afternoon. Temperatures will likely moderate a bit, but will still
be cool compared to the readings we saw over the weekend.
Not a whole lot of change is expected through the remainder of the
week as the dry pattern continues with northwesterly flow aloft.
Another short-wave is forecast to pass to the north on Thursday
and we may see an increase in northerly winds again in its wake.
&&
.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)
Upper level ridging will bring more warm and dry conditions
through Monday, with above normal high temperatures. Confidence is
improving for a change to a wetter, unsettled pattern next week. Models
continue show a wet system impacting NorCal starting on Tuesday or
Tuesday evening and continuing through Wednesday. The ECMWF
continues the trend of slower and deeper, which could keep
precipitation going into Thursday. The GFS is more progressive,
with an early onset of precipitation Monday morning, with lighter
lingering activity through mid week. Have increased pops
Tuesday/Tuesday into chance category with increasing confidence. Snow
levels look rather high at this point. The development of this
system will be closely watched over coming days.
&&
.Aviation...
Prevailing VFR conditions as high pressure continues to build
inland through OR into the Great Basin. Areas northerly surface
gusts 25-35 kts possible today in the Sac Valley, mainly N and W
sides, decreasing after 00z Wed. Elsewhere, areas N to E surface
wind gusts 25-40 knots possible over coastal mountains and eastern
foothill and mountains including western Plumas and northern
Sierra Nevada through Wed morning.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
840 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. ADDED A
LITTLE BIT MORE WIND RIGHT NEAR THE BASE OF THE HILLS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT LATER TONIGHT...AND ADDED
A LITTLE MORE WAVE CLOUDINESS FOR THURSDAY GIVEN LATEST CROSS
SECTIONS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN.
&&
.AVIATION...FORECAST ON TRACK. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE
WINDS AT KBJC PER CURRENT OBS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN WAVE/ENHANCED
DOWNSLOPE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014/
SHORT TERM...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER THE
AREA WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SATELLITE SHOWING WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING AT THIS TIME...EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN COLORADO. SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK WAVE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT GUSTY
ACROSS THE RIDGES AND PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS...DUE MAINLY TO
MIXING. WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE CIRRUS
WITH THE PASSING WAVE. SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE WAVE WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS A BIT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. OVERNIGHT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AS THE GREAT BASIN UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT. SPATIAL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE LATEST RUC SHOWING ABOUT 40 KTS AT MOUNTAIN TOP. THERE ARE
HINTS AT A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. SOME FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS COULD SEE GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. WEAK
MID LEVEL DESCENT COMBINED WITH MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP GUSTY
WINDS GOING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE PLAINS...DOWNSLOPE
WINDS TO PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON WITH MORE OF A NORTHWEST COMPONENT
AFTER 18Z. MAY ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
BORDERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. WARMER AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO
THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ONE WEATHER DISTURBANCE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER ONE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH THE UPPER FEATURES...SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL DROP OVER
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOL SIDE. AS THE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
ALSO BE IN THE VICINITY TO HELP ORGANIZE THE PASSING SYSTEMS.
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR RECEIVING OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL WITH EACH SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MOISTURE CONTENT SEEMS
LIMITED SINCE THE SYSTEMS ARE COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. ON THE OTHER HAND...EACH SYSTEM WILL TAKE 24-30 HOURS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS
TO ACCUMULATE. ON THE PLAINS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE RANGE
THAT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS TO
SWITCH TO MORE OF A DRAINAGE PATTERN THIS EVENING. SPEEDS AROUND 8
KTS TO PREVAIL...THOUGH KBJC MAY SEE SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KTS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO PREVAIL WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
931 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.CORRECTION TO UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CIRCLING A DEEPENING SFC/
850MB LOW IN EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
STRONG NORTHERLY SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS TIGHTLY WOUND UP
CYCLONE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WRAP BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
SOUTHWARD OUT OF WYOMING AND DOWN ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. MAIN BAND OF SNOW NOW OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. A
BAND OF SNOW JUST PASSED OVER DIA WHERE IT BRIEFLY LOWERED THE VSBY
TO A QUARTER MILE. THIS SAME BAND OF SNOW WAS NOW PRODUCING A
SIMILAR REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY AT CENTENNIAL AIRPORT IN THE
SOUTHEAST DENVER METRO AREA. THEY TOO SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY
BEFORE NEXT HOUR. AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THE MIDNIGHT CREW
ISSUED A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR
ZONE 38 UP ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. NORTHERLY WINDS WERE GUSTING
OVER 50 MPH UP THAT WAY CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND VERY COLD
WIND CHILLS. MEANWHILE AT THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW...PRECIP HAS YET
TO DEVELOP...BUT ITS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME. AS THE CYCLONE SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST SO WILL THE BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. BY LATE
MORNING...SHOULD SEE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING AND A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
TRAVEL IN THE CORNER COUNTIES COULD GET PRETTY UGLY FOR A TIME LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO
1.5 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. AS FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT. STILL LOOKING FOR PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ALL DAY. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND DIFFICULT
DRIVING CONDITIONS ESPLY ON THE HIGH MTN PASSES. OH YES...THE DUST
STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH.
.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS TODAY WITH PERIODS OF IFR AND LIFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PASSING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TIME OF
THESE SHOWERS AS THEY ARE BEING MOVED ALONG BY STRONG NORTHERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS. DENVER AREA TERMINALS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PICK UP
AN INCH OF SNOW BEFORE NOON TODAY...MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO GRASSY SURFACES. AFTER 3 PM TODAY...CLOUD BASES SHOULD LIFT ABOVE
5000 FT AGL AS DRIER AIR BLOWS DOWN OFF THE FOOTHILLS. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO DECREASE IN SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS EVENING
DENVER AREA TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...BAND OF SNOW IS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF AIRPORT.
VELOCITY DATA SHOWS WINDS UP TO 50 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. IF
THIS WIND MIXES TO THE GROUND COULD SEE GUSTS FM 50-55 MPH AT DIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014/
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CDFNT IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WITH GUSTS FM 40 TO 50 MPH BEHIND FNT. AM A LITTLE WORRIED
ABOUT LARGE AREA OF SNOW OVER SERN WY WHICH COULD MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE FNT RANGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING IF LOW LVL FLOW BECOMS MORE
NNE INSTEAD OF NNW. HAVE INCLUDED ZN 34 IN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AS MTN CAMS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG I-70.
AVIATION...FNT IS COMING INTO DIA SO SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH. LATEST RUC IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW AT DIA THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED IN LATER UPDATES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014/
SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SERN WY/WRN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE SE INTO NWRN KS BY EARLY AFTN
AND THEN MORE EASTWARD INTO NC KS BY LATE AFTN. MEANWHILE STG SFC
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY LATE
AFTN.
APPEARS SOME HEAVIER SNOW MAY DVLP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LVL
LOW OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS OF COLORADO FM MID MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTN WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF LOGAN...SEDGWICK
AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS.
IN ADDITION WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AT TIMES COULD LEAD TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
FM STERLING TO JULESBURG FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTN. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR ZONES
42...48..50 AND 51.
ELSEWHERE OVER NERN CO A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
URBAN CORRIDOR BY MID MORNING WITH NLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE. THUS WILL SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW FM MID
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS GENERALLY SOUTH OF DENVER WHICH
COULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. WITH GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH AT TIMES MAY SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WELL OVER
EASTERN DOUGLAS AND WRN AREAS OF ELBERT COUNTY.
MEANWHILE AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS STILL MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AT
TIMES WHERE PREVIOUS HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT HOWEVER BEST FOCUS
MAY END UP OVER ERN ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE A
LOT OF BLOWING DUST OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN LINCOLN COUNTY SO
HAVE ISSUED A DUST STORM WARNING THERE WHERE VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
TO ZERO AT TIMES.
IN THE MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL BE FAVORABLE THIS MORNING WITH NW FLOW
BUT THEN BECOME MORE NNE BY AFTN WHICH WOULD END UP FAVORING THE ERN
SLOPES. WILL STILL SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES THRU
MIDDAY SO WILL EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z.
AFTN HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S OVER NERN CO. BY THIS EVENING DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH PCPN ENDING BY 00Z ALONG WITH DECREADING
WIND. IN THE MTNS SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT SO MAY
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING AFTER 06Z.
LONG TERM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS WITH A JET MAXIMUM TO
OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED FOR
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEUTRAL QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO BE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS WITH A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING
MIXED IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SPEEDS ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT IN
MOST AREAS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT LATE...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE A
COLD FRONT MOVE IN WITH UPSLOPE BEHIND IT. AS FAR AS MOISTURE
GOES...THERE IS A TAD LINGERING ON SOME MODELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
OTHERWISE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SPARSE. JUST A BIT HERE AND THERE
IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS. EVEN BEHIND THE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT...THERE IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE OVER THE
PLAINS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS NOTHING ON THE QPF FIELDS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NO POPS FOR THE FOUR PERIOD. FOR
TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO WARM-UP SOME 5-7 C OVER
TODAY`S HIGHS. THURSDAY`S READINGS WILL BE ANOTHER 4-7 C WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MODELS KEEP ZONAL FLOW OVER COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FRIDAY IS PRETTY DRY...BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF MOISTURE PROGGED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
DRY SUNDAY...THE GFS IS NOT. MONDAY IS FAIRLY DRY ON BOTH MODELS.
WILL HAVE SOME MINOR POPS IN FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT RIGHT NOW.
AVIATION...WINDS HAVE BEEN WLY EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER A
STG CDFNT WAS MOVING INTO SERN WY WHICH SHOULD AFFECT THE AIRPORT
BY 13Z OR 14Z WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTN. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF DIA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FM 15Z-19Z WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. APA COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW HOWEVER. WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD SEE SOME RESTRICTION TO
VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
BY 00Z ANY SNOW SHOULD BE OVER WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME DRAINAGE AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ042-044-
046>051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ042-
048-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034-
038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ041.
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ047.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM UPDATE...BAKER
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION UPDATE...BAKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
730 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.AVIATION...BAND OF SNOW IS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF AIRPORT.
VELOCITY DATA SHOWS WINDS UP TO 50 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC. IF
THIS WIND MIXES TO THE GROUND COULD SEE GUSTS FM 50-55 MPH AT DIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014/
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...CDFNT IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WITH GUSTS FM 40 TO 50 MPH BEHIND FNT. AM A LITTLE WORRIED
ABOUT LARGE AREA OF SNOW OVER SERN WY WHICH COULD MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE FNT RANGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING IF LOW LVL FLOW BECOMS MORE
NNE INSTEAD OF NNW. HAVE INCLUDED ZN 34 IN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AS MTN CAMS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG I-70.
AVIATION...FNT IS COMING INTO DIA SO SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH. LATEST RUC IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW AT DIA THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED IN LATER UPDATES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014/
SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SERN WY/WRN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE SE INTO NWRN KS BY EARLY AFTN
AND THEN MORE EASTWARD INTO NC KS BY LATE AFTN. MEANWHILE STG SFC
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY LATE
AFTN.
APPEARS SOME HEAVIER SNOW MAY DVLP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LVL
LOW OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS OF COLORADO FM MID MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTN WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF LOGAN...SEDGWICK
AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS.
IN ADDITION WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AT TIMES COULD LEAD TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
FM STERLING TO JULESBURG FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTN. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR ZONES
42...48..50 AND 51.
ELSEWHERE OVER NERN CO A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
URBAN CORRIDOR BY MID MORNING WITH NLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE. THUS WILL SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW FM MID
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS GENERALLY SOUTH OF DENVER WHICH
COULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. WITH GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH AT TIMES MAY SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WELL OVER
EASTERN DOUGLAS AND WRN AREAS OF ELBERT COUNTY.
MEANWHILE AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS STILL MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AT
TIMES WHERE PREVIOUS HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT HOWEVER BEST FOCUS
MAY END UP OVER ERN ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE A
LOT OF BLOWING DUST OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN LINCOLN COUNTY SO
HAVE ISSUED A DUST STORM WARNING THERE WHERE VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
TO ZERO AT TIMES.
IN THE MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL BE FAVORABLE THIS MORNING WITH NW FLOW
BUT THEN BECOME MORE NNE BY AFTN WHICH WOULD END UP FAVORING THE ERN
SLOPES. WILL STILL SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES THRU
MIDDAY SO WILL EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z.
AFTN HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S OVER NERN CO. BY THIS EVENING DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH PCPN ENDING BY 00Z ALONG WITH DECREADING
WIND. IN THE MTNS SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT SO MAY
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING AFTER 06Z.
LONG TERM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS WITH A JET MAXIMUM TO
OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED FOR
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEUTRAL QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO BE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS WITH A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING
MIXED IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SPEEDS ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT IN
MOST AREAS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT LATE...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE A
COLD FRONT MOVE IN WITH UPSLOPE BEHIND IT. AS FAR AS MOISTURE
GOES...THERE IS A TAD LINGERING ON SOME MODELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
.OTHERWISE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SPARSE. JUST A BIT HERE AND THERE
IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS. EVEN BEHIND THE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT...THERE IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE OVER THE
PLAINS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS NOTHING ON THE QPF FIELDS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NO POPS FOR THE FOUR PERIOD. FOR
TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO WARM-UP SOME 5-7 C OVER
TODAY`S HIGHS. THURSDAY`S READINGS WILL BE ANOTHER 4-7 C WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MODELS KEEP ZONAL FLOW OVER COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FRIDAY IS PRETTY DRY...BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF MOISTURE PROGGED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
DRY SUNDAY...THE GFS IS NOT. MONDAY IS FAIRLY DRY ON BOTH MODELS.
WILL HAVE SOME MINOR POPS IN FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT RIGHT NOW.
AVIATION...WINDS HAVE BEEN WLY EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER A
STG CDFNT WAS MOVING INTO SERN WY WHICH SHOULD AFFECT THE AIRPORT
BY 13Z OR 14Z WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTN. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF DIA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FM 15Z-19Z WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. APA COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW HOWEVER. WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD SEE SOME RESTRICTION TO
VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
BY 00Z ANY SNOW SHOULD BE OVER WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME DRAINAGE AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ042-044-
046>051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ042-
048-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034-
038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ041.
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ047.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
651 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...CDFNT IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WITH GUSTS FM 40 TO 50 MPH BEHIND FNT. AM A LITTLE WORRIED
ABOUT LARGE AREA OF SNOW OVER SERN WY WHICH COULD MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE FNT RANGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING IF LOW LVL FLOW BECOMS MORE
NNE INSTEAD OF NNW. HAVE INCLUDED ZN 34 IN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AS MTN CAMS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG I-70.
.AVIATION...FNT IS COMING INTO DIA SO SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE TO
20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH. LATEST RUC IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW AT DIA THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED IN LATER UPDATES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014/
SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER SERN WY/WRN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE SE INTO NWRN KS BY EARLY AFTN
AND THEN MORE EASTWARD INTO NC KS BY LATE AFTN. MEANWHILE STG SFC
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY LATE
AFTN.
APPEARS SOME HEAVIER SNOW MAY DVLP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LVL
LOW OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS OF COLORADO FM MID MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTN WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF LOGAN...SEDGWICK
AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS.
IN ADDITION WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AT TIMES COULD LEAD TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
FM STERLING TO JULESBURG FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTN. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR ZONES
42...48..50 AND 51.
ELSEWHERE OVER NERN CO A COLD FNT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
URBAN CORRIDOR BY MID MORNING WITH NLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE. THUS WILL SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW FM MID
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS GENERALLY SOUTH OF DENVER WHICH
COULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. WITH GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH AT TIMES MAY SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WELL OVER
EASTERN DOUGLAS AND WRN AREAS OF ELBERT COUNTY.
MEANWHILE AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS STILL MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AT
TIMES WHERE PREVIOUS HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT HOWEVER BEST FOCUS
MAY END UP OVER ERN ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY SEE A
LOT OF BLOWING DUST OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN LINCOLN COUNTY SO
HAVE ISSUED A DUST STORM WARNING THERE WHERE VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
TO ZERO AT TIMES.
IN THE MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL BE FAVORABLE THIS MORNING WITH NW FLOW
BUT THEN BECOME MORE NNE BY AFTN WHICH WOULD END UP FAVORING THE ERN
SLOPES. WILL STILL SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES THRU
MIDDAY SO WILL EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z.
AFTN HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S OVER NERN CO. BY THIS EVENING DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH PCPN ENDING BY 00Z ALONG WITH DECREADING
WIND. IN THE MTNS SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT SO MAY
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING AFTER 06Z.
LONG TERM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS WITH A JET MAXIMUM TO
OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED FOR
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEUTRAL QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO BE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS WITH A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING
MIXED IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SPEEDS ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT IN
MOST AREAS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT LATE...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE A
COLD FRONT MOVE IN WITH UPSLOPE BEHIND IT. AS FAR AS MOISTURE
GOES...THERE IS A TAD LINGERING ON SOME MODELS EARLY WEDNESDAY
..OTHERWISE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SPARSE. JUST A BIT HERE AND THERE
IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS. EVEN BEHIND THE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT...THERE IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE OVER THE
PLAINS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS NOTHING ON THE QPF FIELDS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NO POPS FOR THE FOUR PERIOD. FOR
TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO WARM-UP SOME 5-7 C OVER
TODAY`S HIGHS. THURSDAY`S READINGS WILL BE ANOTHER 4-7 C WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MODELS KEEP ZONAL FLOW OVER COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FRIDAY IS PRETTY DRY...BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF MOISTURE PROGGED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS
DRY SUNDAY...THE GFS IS NOT. MONDAY IS FAIRLY DRY ON BOTH MODELS.
WILL HAVE SOME MINOR POPS IN FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT RIGHT NOW.
AVIATION...WINDS HAVE BEEN WLY EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER A
STG CDFNT WAS MOVING INTO SERN WY WHICH SHOULD AFFECT THE AIRPORT
BY 13Z OR 14Z WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTN. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHC OF SNOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF DIA ALTHOUGH CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FM 15Z-19Z WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. APA COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW HOWEVER. WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD SEE SOME RESTRICTION TO
VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
BY 00Z ANY SNOW SHOULD BE OVER WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME DRAINAGE AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ031-033-34.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ042-044-
046>051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ042-
048-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ041.
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ047.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
658 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE
NORTH UNTIL A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOST
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE CYCLONIC
WITH TIME AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TO THE NORTH. THE COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS WILL BE TOTALLY
ERODED...AND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE. WITH VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING ABOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
EARLY...THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
PWATS WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE QUITE LOW...ON THE ORDER OF
ABOUT 0.7 INCHES...AND A DRY FORECAST REMAINS. WE MAY SEE A BAND
OF CLOUDS IN THE 4-5 KFT RANGE AS THE FRONT COMES IN...BUT LITTLE
ELSE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DUE TO LATE BREAKUP OF LOW CLOUD COVER AND RESIDUAL SHALLOW
MOISTURE FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/50S...PER LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY RUC13 LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
THE IMPACT OF FOG/POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE LIMITED BY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MORE OR LESS GET HUNG UP
DURING THE DAY OVER OR NEAR THE AREA...NOT REALLY PUSHING THROUGH
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO YIELD ANY RAINFALL. DOWNSLOPE WARMING FLOW AND
SOME SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE MID 70S MOST LOCALES
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 40 INLAND
FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MID TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH HIGHS AGAIN LIKELY IN THE MID 70S AWAY FROM
THE COAST WITH SOME UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. BEACH
LOCALES WILL BE MUCH COOLER GIVEN THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN
FLOW BUT RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MILDER...MOSTLY AROUND 50 INLAND AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
AT THE COAST.
SATURDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER ENERGY MAY YIELD
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL REMAIN
MILD/ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SATURDAY
NIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL THEN FALL CONSIDERABLY POST FROPA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY BEFORE
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW 40S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE
COAST. BY TUESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD RETURN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AS A SERIES OF MID LVL SHORTWAVES SHIFT OVER THE AREA
WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS NORTHERLY
FLOW OCCURS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TRACKING OFFSHORE
AND TO THE NORTHEAST. DRYER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
LOOK TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
GROUND FOG/FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW AND THE MENTION OF FOG IS LIMITED TO MFG FOR
NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL THIS WEEKEND AND WHEN THERE
WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDS AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE
AREA. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD COME EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP INLAND AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST...LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE
10 KT OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
INCREASE MODESTLY LATE...INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AND BECOME
WESTERLY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT
BEYOND.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY DECENT CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND AN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN SETS UP WITH BRISK NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FOR
ALL WATERS...ALMOST GUARANTEED BEYOND 20 NM.
GIVEN THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 60 DEGREES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SOME SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
LINGERING CHILLY COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...RJB/SPR
MARINE...BSH/RJB/SPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
455 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AT 07Z SHOWS A POTENT VORT MAX
IN THE 700 MB TO 300 MB LAYER PUNCHING ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WHILE STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST TO PUNCH THROUGH
FAR SOUTH GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. SURFACE LOW
PRES WAS CONGEALING RIGHT OFF THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AND
WILL PRESS ENE AWAY FROM THE NE FLORIDA COAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAINFALL WAS BECOMING A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE WITH INCREASED UPPER
FORCING AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN MORE PREVALENT OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT LEFT QUADRANT OF A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING THE
EASTERN GULF AND INTO FLORIDA. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH DAWN OVER SE
GEORGIA AND BRUSHING COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. FAR INLAND ZONES N OF
I-16 MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH MORE RAINFALL GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
A CHILLY AND DAMP MORNING WITH TEMPS 38-43 DEGREES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS AS THE LOW DEVELOPS
OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH A GOOD WEDGE IN PLACE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TOO
SUBSTANTIAL TO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BUILD DOWN AND POSE A FOG
POTENTIAL NEAR DAWN.
TODAY...RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AT A GOOD CLIP AFTER
MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT PULL AWAY. SINCE MODELS KEEP A WEAK DEFORMATION
ZONE ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WE DID
MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POPS JUST A BIT LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR LIGHT RAINS ALONG AND E OF I-95 IN THE 14Z TO 17Z
TIME RANGE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT WEDGE INVERSION WILL
ENSURE THAT RAPID CLEARING WILL NOT OCCUR DESPITE PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYERED DRY AIR MOVING IN ATOP THE SHALLOW MOIST INVERSION. THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TODAY WITH THE
CAVEAT OF POSSIBLE LATE DAY PARTIAL CLEARING WHICH MODELS HINT AT
AFTER 21Z. WE LOWERED HIGHS A TAD TO TREND A BIT PESSIMISTIC WITH
LATE DAY CLEARING POTENTIAL.
STEADY N TO NNE WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TENDS TO WEAKEN.
TONIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS AND LOW
CLOUD POTENTIAL. OUR FORECAST LOWS WERE BETWEEN THE COLDER NAM
WHICH SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AND THE
WARMER GFS WHICH INDICATES WIDESPREAD CLOUDS PREVAILING. RAIN
CHANCES SLIM BUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY AND MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK AND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PARENT HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PATTERN
CHANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS AS
LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE EDGE OF BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPS OVER THE AREA.
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES ON THURSDAY...WITH A MORE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD THEREFORE BE A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY MODIFYING TEMPS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN PEAK INTO THE MID 70S...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE
COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE WIND OVER COOLER WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM-UP IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURS OVER
THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL...OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD
APPROACH THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MILD...IN THE LOW/MID
50S. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED POST FROPA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE FROM THE LOW
60S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW 40S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 40S
ALONG THE COAST. BY TUESDAY...PRECIP CHANCES COULD RETURN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AS A SERIES OF MID LVL SHORTWAVES SHIFT OVER THE AREA
WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS INVERSION FROM THE WEDGE LOCKING IN LOW CLOUDS. THE
MAIN BAND OF RAINS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST 17-20 KT AS THE PRES GRADIENT IS QUITE TIGHT.
THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TAFS WE MADE AT 06Z MAINLY TO SLOW THE
ASCENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL TRENDS. IFR CIGS COULD HANG IN MUCH OF THE
DAY BUT WE HAVE INDICATED BASES LIFTING ABOVE 1 KFT AFTER 19Z
TO TREND AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS. LATER CYCLES MAY NEED TO SLOW
THE PROCESS A BIT MORE AS THE WEDGE REMAINS THE SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD THEN RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE RESPONDED QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
HAS TIGHTENED BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF THE FLORIDA COAST
AND THE SURFACE WEDGE OVER NE GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SOLID SMALL CRAFT EVENT UNFOLDING WHICH SHOULD
LAST THROUGH MID MORNING. WE ARE WATCHING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
WHICH IS CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO INITIATE
WITH N 15-20 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT BUT MAY NEED A SHORT DURATION
SCA IF CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FURTHER. SEAS WILL PEAK 7-9 FT
BEYOND 20 NM THIS MORNING AND START TO COME DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY THIS AFTERNOON THE WEDGE BEGINS TO ERODE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE. NO CHANGES TO ENDING TIMES
FOR THE SCA LATER TODAY BUT WE DID EXTEND THE ADVISORY OVER OUR
20-60 NM WATERS THIS EVENING TO ALLOW A FEW MORE HOURS FOR SEAS TO
SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND IS REPLACED BY BROADER HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN GENERAL...NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS...THEN REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD GRADUALLY BUILD LATE THIS
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352-
354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
948 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
842 PM CDT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH A SECONDARY AND WEAKER TROUGH AXIS UPSTREAM ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REMAINS
STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA...WITH
ANOTHER AREA UP NEAR FARGO/GRAND FORKS. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT LIKELY LEADING
TO A DECREASE IN PRECIP WITH TIME. HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF POPS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA TONIGHT AND WILL JUST CARRY SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE WEST LATE...WITH FLURRIES FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE BAND OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH ARRIVE LATE BUT THEN BREAK
UP LATER THURSDAY MORNING.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
329 PM CDT
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAIN ISSUES WILL BE
THE TEMPERATURE TREND AND ANY LINGERING PCPN CHANCES. THE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH AND THE AREA HAS BEEN UNDER COLD
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE GENERALLY HELD STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN...TEMPS ACROSS THE
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING. THE INITIAL
ROUND OF PCPN HAS ENDED AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRY. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A MODEST SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS IS
GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. EVEN WITH SFC RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION...FEEL THAT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BRING SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-55. GIVEN NO SFC
SUPPORT AND LITTLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ANTICIPATE THAT
ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT CAN HANG TOGETHER WOULD BE SCATTERED AND
PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE GENERAL TREND OF LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND
WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING AT THE SFC AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...ANTICIPATE THAT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A WEAK WARMFRONT
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE WARM FRONT IS STILL SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
ISENTROPIC FORCING SHOULD BE WEAK AND ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN SURGE NORTH OF THE WISCONSIN BORDER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE EVEN
FURTHER...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER-TYPE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND CROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...AND HAVE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF TRACK AND TIMING WHICH IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY AS THE CLIPPER PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...COLD ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH ON SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THIS IS AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -15C RANGE...BUT THE LATE
MARCH HIGHER SUN ANGLES SHOULD LIMIT THE COOLING...PARTICULARLY FOR
THE SUNDAY HIGHS...WHICH COULD HAVE BEEN MUCH LOWER EARLIER IN THE
MONTH. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE SHOULD BE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME PCPN WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
INCREASING AMPLITUDE WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE REGION
UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND EVEN WITH AN ANTICIPATED SLOW WARMING
TREND...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD STILL BE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TOWARDS ONTARIO
THIS EVENING WITH A MODERATE WESTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE IN THE
MEANTIME. MVFR CIGS PERSIST BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...HOWEVER...HIGHER END MVFR AND LOWER VFR CIGS
HAVE BEEN INCHING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT EXPECT VFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS SOMETIME IN THE 04Z-07Z TIMEFRAME. VSBY IS ALSO A CONCERN
THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS SITES REPORTING BETWEEN 3SM AND 7SM. DONT
HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE VSBY TRENDS GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS IN PLACE...HOWEVER LAV GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PROB OF MVFR CIGS
DECREASING AFTER 03-04Z THIS EVENING...THEN RAMPING UP AGAIN IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS AND EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...WEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.
MAINTAINED LOWER VSBY AT DPA/RFD WHICH ARE MORE FOG PRONE BUT KEPT
OUT OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TAFS FOR NOW. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR SNOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST MN. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS AREA
DIMINISHING AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES THOUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT RFD. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT TO SEE HOW WELL THE AREA HOLDS TOGETHER. IF
IT DOES MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ADDITIONAL SIG IMPACTS TO VSBY NOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS INTO LATE THIS EVENING...LOW
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...CHC OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY...CHC OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CHC OF RAIN/SNOW.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
253 PM...LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST TO
QUEBEC THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS SLIGHTLY. AS THE LOW APPROACHED AND
CROSSED LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...IT WAS A BIT WEAKER THEN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THUS...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE LESS
FREQUENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...IF AT ALL.
SPEEDS TO 30 KT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND
THEN STEADILY DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
SPEEDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A LAKE BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS
CONTINUES EAST FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPEARS TO DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTH AND THEN CROSS SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
SPECIFIC DIRECTIONS/TIMING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW. POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
923 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 923 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014
Made a few minor updates to the forecast regarding the sky cover
and temperatures late this evening and into tonight.
The latest IR satellite loop is showing the area of low clouds
finally starting to pick up a bit of speed and shift in easterly
direction across the state. At 02Z (9 pm CDT) the back edge of the
clouds extended from the Quad Cities-just west of Peoria-just east
of Springfield-Lawrenceville. Expecting the cloud cover to be
completely out of central IL by midnight, and out of eastern IL by
2 am.
The 00Z surface analysis indicated that anticyclonic flow was
finally starting to take hold in southeast and parts of central IL
south of I-72. As expected, the surface wind is dropping off
considerably after the clouds clear out. Expect this to occur in
much of the forecast area by midnight, coincident with the
clearing. Since areas north of I-74 will be among the last to
clear, there could be some patchy light fog development shortly
after the wind diminishes.
More clouds upstream in western Iowa will move into central IL
before daybreak, so am not expecting complete clearing overnight,
but more of a partly cloudy situation. This should keep
temperatures from dropping too low, so will stick with lows in the
28-32 range.
Miller
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 651 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014
MVFR ceilings across central and eastern IL will be moving out of
the area the next few hours. The RAP and NAM12 low level moisture
fields line up fairly well with the cloud cover depicted on
satellite, which is pulling out to the ENE around 25 mph. KSPI
will be the first to clear within the next hour, with the TAF
sites along I-74 lifting to VFR ceilings by 02z and clearing by
04z.
After the clouds clear out and the area comes more under the
influence of high pressure, the gusty west wind should diminish to
about 10 kts. The lower atmosphere may decouple in central IL
after midnight, resulting in a light southwest wind. The locations
where the clouds clear last may see a return to MVFR conditions
with visibility around 5SM after 09z as a result of a fairly
moist ground and the light wind.
The RAP and NAM12 models are once again in agreement that the
northern TAF sites along I-74 will see a return to SCT-BKN clouds
at the VFR level toward daybreak. This can be seen on the IR
satellite loop in the Dakotas- western Iowa advecting southeastward.
KSPI-KDEC should be on the southern edge of this moisture, so
decided to just stuck with SCT clouds for now.
Miller
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 242 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014
Low pressure has lifted into norther lower Michigan this
afternoon, with the trailing cold front well east of our area
across Indiana. Winds have frequently been gusting 25-35 mph or so
in the tight pressure gradient between the low and a surface high
across Oklahoma, as 3-hour pressure rises across the state are
running around 4 mb. Rather expansive area of stratocumulus behind
the front with just some breaks across the southeast CWA, although
the clearing line is advancing steadily across western Missouri.
Temperatures in the far southeast CWA managed to reach the mid 50s
before the front arrive and have only dropped off a few degrees so
far, with upper 30s to lower 40s prevailing over much of central
Illinois.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night:
Clouds will erode from west to east this evening, ahead of an
upper trough advancing east from the central Plains. Brief period
of cold air aloft to pass through overnight and early Thursday,
but warm air advection to kick in quickly after that. Most of the
morning models showing some isentropic lift associated with a
developing warm front across northern Illinois, enough for some
areas of light rain Thursday night. Currently only the NMM model
shows this rain as far south as central Illinois, with the
Canadian and GFS models scraping areas just to the northeast of
our forecast area. Have added some low 20-30% PoPs for areas
north of I-74 to cover this, but think most areas will remain dry.
As 850 mb temperatures rise to around 8C by midday Friday, highs
are still expected to reach well into the 60s.
Upper trough currently coming onshore near Vancouver will zip
along the Canadian border the next couple days. Main surface low
progged by the morning models to move into northern Wisconsin or
upper Michigan by Friday afternoon, with a secondary low tracking
more along the Wisconsin/Illinois border. Most of the energy will
be with the main low, with some precipitation extending southward
along the trailing cold front, which will sweep through the
forecast area Friday evening, but again precipitation chances in
our area will be low. Have mainly concentrated them across east
central Illinois during the evening.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday:
Upper pattern continues to trend back to the cooler setup into
next week, as ridging builds along the West Coast and puts us in a
northwest flow. Most of the time, central Illinois should remain
under the influence of high pressure areas moving in from the
northwest. Main period of concern would be from Monday night
and Tuesday, regarding the depth of the upper troughing over the
Midwest, and whether it manages to produce any precipitation over
our area. The persistent north/northeast flow is not favorable for
any sort of moisture advection, and the longer range models
disagree on the strength of this trough. Have concentrated most of
the PoPs on Monday night, but kept them under 30%.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
655 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
329 PM CDT
FOR THE NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAIN ISSUES WILL BE
THE TEMPERATURE TREND AND ANY LINGERING PCPN CHANCES. THE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH AND THE AREA HAS BEEN UNDER COLD
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE GENERALLY HELD STEADY
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN...TEMPS ACROSS THE
NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING. THE INITIAL
ROUND OF PCPN HAS ENDED AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
DRY. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A MODEST SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS IS
GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. EVEN WITH SFC RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION...FEEL THAT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BRING SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-55. GIVEN NO SFC
SUPPORT AND LITTLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ANTICIPATE THAT
ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT CAN HANG TOGETHER WOULD BE SCATTERED AND
PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE GENERAL TREND OF LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND
WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING AT THE SFC AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...ANTICIPATE THAT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A WEAK WARMFRONT
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE WARM FRONT IS STILL SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT
ISENTROPIC FORCING SHOULD BE WEAK AND ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE
WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN SURGE NORTH OF THE WISCONSIN BORDER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE EVEN
FURTHER...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER-TYPE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND CROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...AND HAVE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF TRACK AND TIMING WHICH IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY AS THE CLIPPER PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...COLD ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH ON SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THIS IS AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -15C RANGE...BUT THE LATE
MARCH HIGHER SUN ANGLES SHOULD LIMIT THE COOLING...PARTICULARLY FOR
THE SUNDAY HIGHS...WHICH COULD HAVE BEEN MUCH LOWER EARLIER IN THE
MONTH. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE SHOULD BE
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME PCPN WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
INCREASING AMPLITUDE WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS
AND TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE REGION
UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND EVEN WITH AN ANTICIPATED SLOW WARMING
TREND...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD STILL BE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING...LIFTING TO VFR LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
* VARIABLE VSBY THIS EVENING...PSBLY OVERNIGHT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TOWARDS ONTARIO
THIS EVENING WITH A MODERATE WESTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE IN THE
MEANTIME. MVFR CIGS PERSIST BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...HOWEVER...HIGHER END MVFR AND LOWER VFR CIGS
HAVE BEEN INCHING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT EXPECT VFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS SOMETIME IN THE 04Z-07Z TIMEFRAME. VSBY IS ALSO A CONCERN
THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS SITES REPORTING BETWEEN 3SM AND 7SM. DONT
HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE VSBY TRENDS GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS IN PLACE...HOWEVER LAV GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PROB OF MVFR CIGS
DECREASING AFTER 03-04Z THIS EVENING...THEN RAMPING UP AGAIN IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS AND EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT...WEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.
MAINTAINED LOWER VSBY AT DPA/RFD WHICH ARE MORE FOG PRONE BUT KEPT
OUT OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TAFS FOR NOW. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR SNOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST MN. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS AREA
DIMINISHING AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES THOUGH EARLY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT RFD. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT TO SEE HOW WELL THE AREA HOLDS TOGETHER. IF
IT DOES MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ADDITIONAL SIG IMPACTS TO VSBY NOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS INTO LATE THIS EVENING...LOW
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...CHC OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY...CHC OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CHC OF RAIN/SNOW.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
253 PM...LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST TO
QUEBEC THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS SLIGHTLY. AS THE LOW APPROACHED AND
CROSSED LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...IT WAS A BIT WEAKER THEN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THUS...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE LESS
FREQUENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...IF AT ALL.
SPEEDS TO 30 KT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND
THEN STEADILY DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
SPEEDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A LAKE BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE LAKE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS
CONTINUES EAST FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPEARS TO DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTH AND THEN CROSS SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
SPECIFIC DIRECTIONS/TIMING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW. POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
652 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 242 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014
Low pressure has lifted into norther lower Michigan this
afternoon, with the trailing cold front well east of our area
across Indiana. Winds have frequently been gusting 25-35 mph or so
in the tight pressure gradient between the low and a surface high
across Oklahoma, as 3-hour pressure rises across the state are
running around 4 mb. Rather expansive area of stratocumulus behind
the front with just some breaks across the southeast CWA, although
the clearing line is advancing steadily across western Missouri.
Temperatures in the far southeast CWA managed to reach the mid 50s
before the front arrive and have only dropped off a few degrees so
far, with upper 30s to lower 40s prevailing over much of central
Illinois.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night:
Clouds will erode from west to east this evening, ahead of an
upper trough advancing east from the central Plains. Brief period
of cold air aloft to pass through overnight and early Thursday,
but warm air advection to kick in quickly after that. Most of the
morning models showing some isentropic lift associated with a
developing warm front across northern Illinois, enough for some
areas of light rain Thursday night. Currently only the NMM model
shows this rain as far south as central Illinois, with the
Canadian and GFS models scraping areas just to the northeast of
our forecast area. Have added some low 20-30% PoPs for areas
north of I-74 to cover this, but think most areas will remain dry.
As 850 mb temperatures rise to around 8C by midday Friday, highs
are still expected to reach well into the 60s.
Upper trough currently coming onshore near Vancouver will zip
along the Canadian border the next couple days. Main surface low
progged by the morning models to move into northern Wisconsin or
upper Michigan by Friday afternoon, with a secondary low tracking
more along the Wisconsin/Illinois border. Most of the energy will
be with the main low, with some precipitation extending southward
along the trailing cold front, which will sweep through the
forecast area Friday evening, but again precipitation chances in
our area will be low. Have mainly concentrated them across east
central Illinois during the evening.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday:
Upper pattern continues to trend back to the cooler setup into
next week, as ridging builds along the West Coast and puts us in a
northwest flow. Most of the time, central Illinois should remain
under the influence of high pressure areas moving in from the
northwest. Main period of concern would be from Monday night
and Tuesday, regarding the depth of the upper troughing over the
Midwest, and whether it manages to produce any precipitation over
our area. The persistent north/northeast flow is not favorable for
any sort of moisture advection, and the longer range models
disagree on the strength of this trough. Have concentrated most of
the PoPs on Monday night, but kept them under 30%.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 651 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014
MVFR ceilings across central and eastern IL will be moving out of
the area the next few hours. The RAP and NAM12 low level moisture
fields line up fairly well with the cloud cover depicted on
satellite, which is pulling out to the ENE around 25 mph. KSPI
will be the first to clear within the next hour, with the TAF
sites along I-74 lifting to VFR ceilings by 02z and clearing by
04z.
After the clouds clear out and the area comes more under the
influence of high pressure, the gusty west wind should diminish to
about 10 kts. The lower atmosphere may decouple in central IL
after midnight, resulting in a light southwest wind. The locations
where the clouds clear last may see a return to MVFR conditions
with visibility around 5SM after 09z as a result of a fairly
moist ground and the light wind.
The RAP and NAM12 models are once again in agreement that the
northern TAF sites along I-74 will see a return to SCT-BKN clouds
at the VFR level toward daybreak. This can be seen on the IR
satellite loop in the Dakotas- western Iowa advecting southeastward.
KSPI-KDEC should be on the southern edge of this moisture, so
decided to just stuck with SCT clouds for now.
Miller
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1109 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
312 AM CDT
OTHER THAN TODAY...EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA) THE UNRELENTING WINTER OF 2013-14 LOOKS
POISED TO KEEP GOING AD NAUSEUM.
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE FAIRLY DEEP LOW THAT WILL TRACK EAST
TOWARD KANSAS CITY BY EARLY EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A MILDER DAY TODAY...THOUGH EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE
CHICAGO LAKE FRONT AND NORTH SHORE. HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY BUT STILL SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
SFC LOW WILL TRACK NE TO NEAR MKX BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN
WINDS BECOMING SOUTH THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SHOVE THE MARINE LAYER
OFFSHORE LIKELY ALLOWING IL LAKESIDE AREAS TO REACH THEIR HIGH TEMPS
FOR THE DAY WELL AFTER DARK TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL NOT
REALLY HAVE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BECOME COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 120-130KT 250MB JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ASCENT. WOULD
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT THIS EVENING
AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND PARTICULARLY
OVERNIGHT.
SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN WEDNESDAY TURNING BLUSTERY AND
COLDER WITH STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATION.
CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE NW FLOW SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO RIPPLE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND
SYSTEM...ARRIVING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOOKS TO BE A BIT
MORE AMPLIFIED AND STANDS A BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AT ODDS WITH THE
GFS/GEM REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ON FRIDAY. FARTHER NORTH
TRACK DEPICTED BY GEM/GFS WOULD OFFER UP A DECENT CHANCE OF MOST OF
THE CWA BRIEFLY GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
REACH IF NOT GET A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. ECMWF TRACKS SFC LOW FARTHER
SOUTH AND WOULD KEEP WINDS OFF THE LAKE AND RESULT IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPS FRIDAY NORTH OF I-80. THE TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
IS SMALL AND REALLY LITTLE MORE THAN NOISE...BUT HAVE DRAMATICALLY
DIFFERENT RESULTS IN SENSIBLE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. GOING TO SIDE WITH CLIMO AND KEEP TEMPS COLDER OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...BUT BUST POTENTIAL IS HIGH AND IF TRACK ENDS UP
BEING FARTHER NORTH THEN WE COULD BE PLEASANTLY SURPRISED WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES. AT THIS POINT...SOUTHERN CWA LOOKS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.
THE FIRST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SPRING LOOKS TO BE ANYTHING BUT
SPRING-LIKE WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THAT COLD BLAST LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED UP
WITH AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS WITH SECONDARY COLDER FRONT SUNDAY WITH
ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND GEM ALL BRINGING 850MB TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE -16 TO -19C RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK AT REANALYSIS
DATA GOING BACK TO 1979...850MB TEMPS OF -16 OR COLDER WOULD BE
AMONG THE COLDEST 1 PERCENT OF READINGS FOR MAR 16-31ST...SO QUITE
IMPRESSIVE. HAVE SCALED BACK HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM MODEL
BLENDED INITIALIZATION...BUT WORTH NOTING THAT 4 OUT OF THE 6
PREVIOUS DAYS WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -16C OR COLDER IN LATE MARCH HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHS IN THE 20S IN CHICAGO AND THE OTHER 2 DAYS WERE
LOW 30S.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE ARRIVING
AROUND MONDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW TO THE AREA...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED UP WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST WILL BE AN EVEN COLDER
BLAST OF AIR NEXT WEEK. WHILE ITS STILL BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...RUN AFTER RUN THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING AN ARCTIC
BLAST THAT COULD POTENTIALLY THREATEN RECORDS NEXT WEEK AND NOW THE
GFS HAS JOINED THIS BAND CAMP. GIVEN THE STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES IN DEVELOPING A STRONG REX
BLOCK OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NORTH INTO ALASKA THIS WEEKEND IT
WOULD SEEM TO BE HIGHLY LIKELY THAT GENERALLY MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF MARCH.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY SE TO E WINDS TODAY.
* RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFT 05-06Z TONIGHT.
* CHANCE OF EMBEDDED TSRA MAINLY 08Z-11Z TONIGHT... PERHAPS
LASTING UNTIL 14Z.
* LOWER MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY WITH THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE DAY TODAY WILL AGAIN BE THE
WINDS. A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES...WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
FAVOR AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...WITH GUSTS UP AROUND
20 KT...AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...AND THE ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE
12 UTC TAFS WAS TO ADD A PROB 30 MENTION FOR SOME THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND A PERIOD OF GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE ONSET
OF SOME STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LIKELY BY LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS
COULD GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MAIN PRECIP
THREAT SHOULD END DURING THE MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR WIND FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND RAIN
SHOWER TIMING TONIGHT.
* LOW TO MEDIUM FOR A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS AFTER
08 UTC WED.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED
12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF -RA. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
328 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE LAKE CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND
THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN END OF THE
LAKE TODAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE 15 TO
25 KT RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 30 KT LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY ALLOW WAVES TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO AND JUST ABOVE 4 FT ACROSS MY FAR NORTHERN MARINE NEAR
SHORE ZONES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS FROM CHICAGO
NORTHWARD.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF MY NEAR SHORE ZONES I WILL START THE
ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT...AS THE WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE ZONES...ALONG WITH MUCH OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE UP
AROUND 30 KT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. I AM STILL CONCERNED THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LOW END GALES AT TIMES DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DIRECTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS THREAT STILL ALSO APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. AT THIS TIME...I WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...RATHER THAN GOING WITH A GALE WATCH...AS IT
APPEARS THE GALE GUSTS MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY SHORT LIVED IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ABATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. A PERIOD OF
LIGHTER WINDS WILL ENSUE AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY. A SECOND STORM SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO
IMPACT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF HIGHER NORTHERN WINDS POSSIBLE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741...5 PM TUESDAY TO 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM
THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ742-LMZ743...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1100 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1053 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2014 by NWS Chicago
Main forecast tweaks for the afternoon were to the diurnal
temperature and dewpoint curves. Did not really change overall
highs but slowed the warming a bit in the east and southeast to
account for lingering cloud cover and better blend with trends
shown by the neighbors. Mid 50s highs will not come from advecting
cold air from under the cloudiness to the southeast, but from
lifting the low out of Kansas and pushing the warm and clear
sector over the area later today. May also need to update sky
grids as well to reflect this progression.
No changes to later periods at this time.
Lenning
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 635 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2014
Forecast concern will be movement of MVFR/IFR cigs over southern
Indiana this morning and how far west and northwest they move
this morning. Past few runs of the RAP and HRRR models suggest
our eastern TAF sites (KDEC and KCMI) may be affected by MVFR cigs
after 19z this afternoon. Otherwise, the remainder of the sites
will remain VFR thru the day. Look for increasing southeast to
south winds today with gusts up to 25 kts at times this afternoon.
A cold front will begin to approach the area tonight with winds
veering more into a south to southwest direction and decreasing in
speed later this evening. Because of the decrease in winds near
the surface, we may need to consider low level wind shear as winds
just off the surface will be from a 190-220 direction at around 40
kts. For now, will hold off including LLWS for this evening as
there is still some doubt how quickly sfc winds will diminish, if
at all, this evening. As the front moves across the area later
this evening, showers will increase some over the north with the
possibility for some isold TSRA. Will include VCTS at PIA, BMI and
CMI later this evening. Surface winds will veer more into the
southwest late tonight with speeds of 10 to 15 kts aftr 09z with
probabilities increasing for MVFR cigs as the storm system shifts
off to our northeast towards dawn Wednesday.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night
00Z models are in fair agreement next few days and will use a
blend. One wx system to bring chance of rain showers tonight & Wed
with another one on tap for Fri and Fri night. A 3rd system
arrives Mon afternoon & Monday night with chance of rain/snow.
Extended models continue to trend colder during next work week
with coldest air arriving next Wed when 850 mb temps low to -15 to -20C.
CPC 8-14 day outlook for Mar 25-31 continue a 70% chance of below
normal temps over central IL with MN/WI/MI greater than 80% chance
of below normal temps. Central IL also has a 50% chance of above
normal precipitation. So winter like weather that develops during
next work week could linger through the rest of the month.
Strong 990 mb surface low pressure over central KS to lift ne
across northern IL overnight and across lower MI during Wed. This
to bring a cold front east across IL overnight. Increasing
sse winds ahead of approaching low pressure today with gusts to 30
mph this afternoon to warm temps into mid to upper 50s. Temps
currently are in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Models have trended
a few degrees cooler due to more mid/high clouds increasing from
the west today. Low stratus clouds should stay se of IL over KY
and southeast IN.
Have chance of rain showers spreading east across central IL
during the evening and into southeast IL by overnight. Added
isolated thunderstorms to northern areas tonight per SPC day 1
outlook with general risk of thunder over parts of central IL.
Models have trended slower and linger some light qpf over central
IL Wed with upper level trof moving into IL behind the cold front.
Have therefore increase chances of light rain showers Wed
especially from I-74 ne. Areas from Peoria north could see a few
light snow showers too Wed morning but no accumulations. Windy on
Wed with wsw wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. If clouds break up during
the afternoon Wed could see higher wind gusts.
Dry conditions Wed night and Thu with highs in the 50s Thu with
more sunshine and increasing south winds Thu afternoon as high
pressure passes to the east of IL.
Nice warmup on Friday still expected with highs in the upper 50s
to mid 60s with breezy ssw winds and mildest temps in southeast IL.
Surface low pressure to track into central/northern IL Friday
afternoon and brings another cold front east through IL then with
next chance of rain showers Friday and Friday night. Have isolated
thunder over southeast IL Friday night.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday
Dry and cooler conditions expected this weekend. A 3rd wx system
to affect region Mon afternoon and Monday night with chance of
rain or snow showers and turning progressively colder from Mon
thru Wed.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
906 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
312 AM CDT
OTHER THAN TODAY...EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA) THE UNRELENTING WINTER OF 2013-14 LOOKS
POISED TO KEEP GOING AD NAUSEUM.
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE FAIRLY DEEP LOW THAT WILL TRACK EAST
TOWARD KANSAS CITY BY EARLY EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A MILDER DAY TODAY...THOUGH EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE
CHICAGO LAKE FRONT AND NORTH SHORE. HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY BUT STILL SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
SFC LOW WILL TRACK NE TO NEAR MKX BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN
WINDS BECOMING SOUTH THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SHOVE THE MARINE LAYER
OFFSHORE LIKELY ALLOWING IL LAKESIDE AREAS TO REACH THEIR HIGH TEMPS
FOR THE DAY WELL AFTER DARK TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL NOT
REALLY HAVE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BECOME COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 120-130KT 250MB JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG ASCENT. WOULD
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT THIS EVENING
AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND PARTICULARLY
OVERNIGHT.
SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN WEDNESDAY TURNING BLUSTERY AND
COLDER WITH STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATION.
CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE OF FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE NW FLOW SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO RIPPLE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND
SYSTEM...ARRIVING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOOKS TO BE A BIT
MORE AMPLIFIED AND STANDS A BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE AT ODDS WITH THE
GFS/GEM REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ON FRIDAY. FARTHER NORTH
TRACK DEPICTED BY GEM/GFS WOULD OFFER UP A DECENT CHANCE OF MOST OF
THE CWA BRIEFLY GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
REACH IF NOT GET A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. ECMWF TRACKS SFC LOW FARTHER
SOUTH AND WOULD KEEP WINDS OFF THE LAKE AND RESULT IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPS FRIDAY NORTH OF I-80. THE TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
IS SMALL AND REALLY LITTLE MORE THAN NOISE...BUT HAVE DRAMATICALLY
DIFFERENT RESULTS IN SENSIBLE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. GOING TO SIDE WITH CLIMO AND KEEP TEMPS COLDER OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...BUT BUST POTENTIAL IS HIGH AND IF TRACK ENDS UP
BEING FARTHER NORTH THEN WE COULD BE PLEASANTLY SURPRISED WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES. AT THIS POINT...SOUTHERN CWA LOOKS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.
THE FIRST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SPRING LOOKS TO BE ANYTHING BUT
SPRING-LIKE WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THAT COLD BLAST LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED UP
WITH AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS WITH SECONDARY COLDER FRONT SUNDAY WITH
ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES AND GEM ALL BRINGING 850MB TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE -16 TO -19C RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING BACK AT REANALYSIS
DATA GOING BACK TO 1979...850MB TEMPS OF -16 OR COLDER WOULD BE
AMONG THE COLDEST 1 PERCENT OF READINGS FOR MAR 16-31ST...SO QUITE
IMPRESSIVE. HAVE SCALED BACK HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM MODEL
BLENDED INITIALIZATION...BUT WORTH NOTING THAT 4 OUT OF THE 6
PREVIOUS DAYS WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -16C OR COLDER IN LATE MARCH HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHS IN THE 20S IN CHICAGO AND THE OTHER 2 DAYS WERE
LOW 30S.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE ARRIVING
AROUND MONDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW TO THE AREA...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED UP WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST WILL BE AN EVEN COLDER
BLAST OF AIR NEXT WEEK. WHILE ITS STILL BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...RUN AFTER RUN THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ADVERTISING AN ARCTIC
BLAST THAT COULD POTENTIALLY THREATEN RECORDS NEXT WEEK AND NOW THE
GFS HAS JOINED THIS BAND CAMP. GIVEN THE STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES IN DEVELOPING A STRONG REX
BLOCK OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NORTH INTO ALASKA THIS WEEKEND IT
WOULD SEEM TO BE HIGHLY LIKELY THAT GENERALLY MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF MARCH.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* GUSTY SE TO E WINDS TODAY.
* RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFT 06Z TONIGHT.
* CHANCE OF EMBEDDED TSRA MAINLY 08Z-11Z TONIGHT.
* LOWER MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY WITH THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT.
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DURING THE DAY TODAY WILL AGAIN BE THE
WINDS. A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES...WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
FAVOR AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...WITH GUSTS UP AROUND
20 KT...AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...AND THE ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND IFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE
12 UTC TAFS WAS TO ADD A PROB 30 MENTION FOR SOME THUNDER LATER
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND A PERIOD OF GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE ONSET
OF SOME STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...LIKELY BY LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS
COULD GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MAIN PRECIP
THREAT SHOULD END DURING THE MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR WIND FORECAST AND RAIN SHOWER TIMING.
* LOW TO MEDIUM FOR A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS AFTER
08 UTC WED.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED
12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF -RA. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW AND IFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
328 AM CDT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE LAKE CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND
THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN END OF THE
LAKE TODAY...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO BE IN THE 15 TO
25 KT RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 30 KT LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY ALLOW WAVES TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO AND JUST ABOVE 4 FT ACROSS MY FAR NORTHERN MARINE NEAR
SHORE ZONES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THEREFORE...I HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS FROM CHICAGO
NORTHWARD.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF MY NEAR SHORE ZONES I WILL START THE
ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT...AS THE WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE ZONES...ALONG WITH MUCH OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE UP
AROUND 30 KT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. I AM STILL CONCERNED THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME LOW END GALES AT TIMES DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DIRECTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS THREAT STILL ALSO APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. AT THIS TIME...I WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS...RATHER THAN GOING WITH A GALE WATCH...AS IT
APPEARS THE GALE GUSTS MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY SHORT LIVED IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ABATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. A PERIOD OF
LIGHTER WINDS WILL ENSUE AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY. A SECOND STORM SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO
IMPACT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF HIGHER NORTHERN WINDS POSSIBLE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741...5 PM TUESDAY TO 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM
THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ742-LMZ743...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
645 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night
00Z models are in fair agreement next few days and will use a
blend. One wx system to bring chance of rain showers tonight & Wed
with another one on tap for Fri and Fri night. A 3rd system
arrives Mon afternoon & Monday night with chance of rain/snow.
Extended models continue to trend colder during next work week
with coldest air arriving next Wed when 850 mb temps low to -15 to -20C.
CPC 8-14 day outlook for Mar 25-31 continue a 70% chance of below
normal temps over central IL with MN/WI/MI greater than 80% chance
of below normal temps. Central IL also has a 50% chance of above
normal precipitation. So winter like weather that develops during
next work week could linger through the rest of the month.
Strong 990 mb surface low pressure over central KS to lift ne
across northern IL overnight and across lower MI during Wed. This
to bring a cold front east across IL overnight. Increasing
sse winds ahead of approaching low pressure today with gusts to 30
mph this afternoon to warm temps into mid to upper 50s. Temps
currently are in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Models have trended
a few degrees cooler due to more mid/high clouds increasing from
the west today. Low stratus clouds should stay se of IL over KY
and southeast IN.
Have chance of rain showers spreading east across central IL
during the evening and into southeast IL by overnight. Added
isolated thunderstorms to northern areas tonight per SPC day 1
outlook with general risk of thunder over parts of central IL.
Models have trended slower and linger some light qpf over central
IL Wed with upper level trof moving into IL behind the cold front.
Have therefore increase chances of light rain showers Wed
especially from I-74 ne. Areas from Peoria north could see a few
light snow showers too Wed morning but no accumulations. Windy on
Wed with wsw wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. If clouds break up during
the afternoon Wed could see higher wind gusts.
Dry conditions Wed night and Thu with highs in the 50s Thu with
more sunshine and increasing south winds Thu afternoon as high
pressure passes to the east of IL.
Nice warmup on Friday still expected with highs in the upper 50s
to mid 60s with breezy ssw winds and mildest temps in southeast IL.
Surface low pressure to track into central/northern IL Friday
afternoon and brings another cold front east through IL then with
next chance of rain showers Friday and Friday night. Have isolated
thunder over southeast IL Friday night.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday
Dry and cooler conditions expected this weekend. A 3rd wx system
to affect region Mon afternoon and Monday night with chance of
rain or snow showers and turning progressively colder from Mon
thru Wed.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 635 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2014
Forecast concern will be movement of MVFR/IFR cigs over southern
Indiana this morning and how far west and northwest they move
this morning. Past few runs of the RAP and HRRR models suggest
our eastern TAF sites (KDEC and KCMI) may be affected by MVFR cigs
after 19z this afternoon. Otherwise, the remainder of the sites
will remain VFR thru the day. Look for increasing southeast to
south winds today with gusts up to 25 kts at times this afternoon.
A cold front will begin to approach the area tonight with winds
veering more into a south to southwest direction and decreasing in
speed later this evening. Because of the decrease in winds near
the surface, we may need to consider low level wind shear as winds
just off the surface will be from a 190-220 direction at around 40
kts. For now, will hold off including LLWS for this evening as
there is still some doubt how quickly sfc winds will diminish, if
at all, this evening. As the front moves across the area later
this evening, showers will increase some over the north with the
possibility for some isold TSRA. Will include VCTS at PIA, BMI and
CMI later this evening. Surface winds will veer more into the
southwest late tonight with speeds of 10 to 15 kts aftr 09z with
probabilities increasing for MVFR cigs as the storm system shifts
off to our northeast towards dawn Wednesday.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
HAD TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER UNTIL OVERNIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS AS CLEARING AS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE STRATOCU DECK STILL JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...HAD TO KEEP THE GUSTY WINDS IN A LITTLE LONGER AS GUSTS HAVE
STAYED UP IN THE 30S PER RAP AND NAM BUFKIT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BY
THIS EVENING. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DECENT...ALBEIT
SLOW...DRYING AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FIRST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT
AND THEN WITH A COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ENOUGH TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK UP INTO THE 50S...POSSIBLY
EVEN HITTING 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY INCREASE IN THE EVENING AS A WARM FRONT
CREEPS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN AS THE FRONT
LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AND THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 40-45 KT 850 MB JET. THEREFORE...CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL RUNS LOOK TO HAVE JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...ONCE ANY
LINGERING WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS EXIT THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TIME HOURS.
THIS BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS...WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S. WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING...SLOWED DOWN THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY WITH NO POPS AGAIN UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO
BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH A DECENT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MODERATE
DYNAMICS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST A PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH LIMITED SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA IN THE FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA. FLOW OF ANY
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF REMAINS CUT OFF. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS EVEN WHEN A CUSPY AREA PASSES
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED. WILL TAKE THE ROUTE OF WAITING FOR MORE SUPPORT BEFORE
KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/0300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
UPDATE...
MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. CURRENT OBS
AND MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH LATE EVENING...SO HELD ON TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 24
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 27 KTS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE/MK
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
958 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
HAD TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER UNTIL OVERNIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS AS CLEARING AS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE STRATOCU DECK STILL JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...HAD TO KEEP THE GUSTY WINDS IN A LITTLE LONGER AS GUSTS HAVE
STAYED UP IN THE 30S PER RAP AND NAM BUFKIT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BY
THIS EVENING. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DECENT...ALBEIT
SLOW...DRYING AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FIRST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT
AND THEN WITH A COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ENOUGH TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK UP INTO THE 50S...POSSIBLY
EVEN HITTING 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY INCREASE IN THE EVENING AS A WARM FRONT
CREEPS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN AS THE FRONT
LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AND THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 40-45 KT 850 MB JET. THEREFORE...CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL RUNS LOOK TO HAVE JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...ONCE ANY
LINGERING WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS EXIT THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TIME HOURS.
THIS BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS...WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S. WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING...SLOWED DOWN THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY WITH NO POPS AGAIN UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO
BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH A DECENT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MODERATE
DYNAMICS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST A PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH LIMITED SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA IN THE FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA. FLOW OF ANY
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF REMAINS CUT OFF. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS EVEN WHEN A CUSPY AREA PASSES
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED. WILL TAKE THE ROUTE OF WAITING FOR MORE SUPPORT BEFORE
KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. CURRENT OBS
AND MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH LATE EVENING...SO HELD ON TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 24
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 27 KTS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE/MK
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1257 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
AFTER A DRY MILD DAY TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COOLER DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TURN WARMER FOR FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REESTABLISHES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA HAS BEEN EXPANDING
NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. PILOT REPORTS INDICATE THIS
CLOUD DECK IS QUITE THIN...SO EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THINK PARTLY CLOUDY WILL STILL WORK OVERALL
TODAY...BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL ZONES.
THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST TODAY/S HIGHS ARE WITHIN
REACH...BUT THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME...BUT THE HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED LATER TODAY WHEN LOW CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING W/NW
ACROSS KENTUCKY AS WELL. WITH LIGHT E/SE FLOW...TEMPS RANGED FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 07Z.
INITIAL ISSUE FOCUSES ON THE STRATUS DECK EXPANDING TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A S/SE DIRECTION. AT THE SAME TIME...BOTH
THE RAP AND NAM APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING MOISTURE ON THE 925/950 MB
LEVELS VERSUS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK AS OF
07Z. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN LOWER CLOUDS REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND POSSIBLY
GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS I-70 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER DAYBREAK. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE GRIDS SOUTHEAST
OF THE INDY METRO FOR THE MORNING AND MONITOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SURFACE
WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH SUSTAINEDS TO
NEAR 15MPH BY LATE DAY.
TEMPS...EVENTUAL EXTENT OF STRATUS DECK BOTH IN COVERAGE AND TIME
WILL BE CRITICAL...AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY...ON DETERMINING HOW WARM
TEMPS GO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
WARM ADVECTION TODAY...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S. GENERALLY NEAR MAVMOS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH DID
UNDERCUT MAV BY A FEW DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND SWING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE MORNING. MOISTURE
FETCH IS LIMITED OVERALL BUT FORCING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ROTATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND PROMOTE A
BRIEF PERIOD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIP AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
BIG ISSUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE WINDS. THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-30MPH...BUT PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER
INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT WHAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND. AS COLD
ADVECTION TAKES HOLD ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT BEING PULLED TO THE SURFACE AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
PROMOTE EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MIXING. MAX GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WELL. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUBTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS REPLACED BY A SURFACE RIDGE. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AIDED BY A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. NICE AXIS OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AT THE NOSE OF THE
JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUPPORT SOME
RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY BY 12Z
FRIDAY.
TEMPS...HIGHS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
THEREAFTER WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION. PREFERRED COLDER MAVMOS HIGHS.
MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR THURSDAY AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO RECOVER
NICELY INTO THE 50S WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED REASONABLE FOR LOWS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER ONE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRST SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS K INDICES AS HIGH AS 30 PLUS INDICATE A HEALTHY
PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS FRIDAY EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM
IS MUCH MORE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURE WISE...AND WILL CARRY RAIN OR
SNOW FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN QUITE WARM IN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. NEAR TO JUST BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER COLD
INTRUSION FROM THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO END.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ALSO MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT START OF FORECAST PERIOD.
VFR REST OF THE TIME.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL MOVE TO NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DAYTIME MIXING. THUS BECOMING VFR MOST AREAS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER NEAR
KLAF LATE TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS.
BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CEILINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 3 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE EVENING AND WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO
2 THOUSAND FEET LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR SPREADS
INTO OUR REGION.
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE THE
RULE. WINDS MAY LESSEN SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
AFTER A DRY MILD DAY TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COOLER DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TURN WARMER FOR FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REESTABLISHES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA HAS BEEN EXPANDING
NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. PILOT REPORTS INDICATE THIS
CLOUD DECK IS QUITE THIN...SO EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THINK PARTLY CLOUDY WILL STILL WORK OVERALL
TODAY...BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL ZONES.
THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST TODAY/S HIGHS ARE WITHIN
REACH...BUT THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME...BUT THE HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED LATER TODAY WHEN LOW CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING W/NW
ACROSS KENTUCKY AS WELL. WITH LIGHT E/SE FLOW...TEMPS RANGED FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 07Z.
INITIAL ISSUE FOCUSES ON THE STRATUS DECK EXPANDING TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A S/SE DIRECTION. AT THE SAME TIME...BOTH
THE RAP AND NAM APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING MOISTURE ON THE 925/950 MB
LEVELS VERSUS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK AS OF
07Z. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN LOWER CLOUDS REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND POSSIBLY
GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS I-70 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER DAYBREAK. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE GRIDS SOUTHEAST
OF THE INDY METRO FOR THE MORNING AND MONITOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SURFACE
WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH SUSTAINEDS TO
NEAR 15MPH BY LATE DAY.
TEMPS...EVENTUAL EXTENT OF STRATUS DECK BOTH IN COVERAGE AND TIME
WILL BE CRITICAL...AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY...ON DETERMINING HOW WARM
TEMPS GO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
WARM ADVECTION TODAY...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S. GENERALLY NEAR MAVMOS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH DID
UNDERCUT MAV BY A FEW DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND SWING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE MORNING. MOISTURE
FETCH IS LIMITED OVERALL BUT FORCING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ROTATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND PROMOTE A
BRIEF PERIOD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIP AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
BIG ISSUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE WINDS. THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-30MPH...BUT PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER
INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT WHAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND. AS COLD
ADVECTION TAKES HOLD ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT BEING PULLED TO THE SURFACE AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
PROMOTE EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MIXING. MAX GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WELL. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUBTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS REPLACED BY A SURFACE RIDGE. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AIDED BY A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. NICE AXIS OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AT THE NOSE OF THE
JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUPPORT SOME
RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY BY 12Z
FRIDAY.
TEMPS...HIGHS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
THEREAFTER WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION. PREFERRED COLDER MAVMOS HIGHS.
MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR THURSDAY AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO RECOVER
NICELY INTO THE 50S WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED REASONABLE FOR LOWS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER ONE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRST SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS K INDICES AS HIGH AS 30 PLUS INDICATE A HEALTHY
PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS FRIDAY EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM
IS MUCH MORE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURE WISE...AND WILL CARRY RAIN OR
SNOW FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN QUITE WARM IN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. NEAR TO JUST BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER COLD
INTRUSION FROM THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO END.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/15Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...SATELLITE AND QUICK LOOK OUT THE WIND INDICATES STRATUS
DECK IS JUST ABOUT TO REACH KIND. THE LAYER APPEARS RATHER THIN
AND WILL MENTION SCT-BKN AROUND 2 THOUSAND FEET NEXT FEW HOURS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN QUICKLY AT BMG AND WITHIN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AT IND/HUF AS A STRATUS DECK EXPANDS NORTHWESTWARD.
LAF MAY ESCAPE MVFR CONDITIONS AS MIXING BEGINS TO ERODE THE STRATUS
DECK LATER THIS MORNING.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE STRATUS DECK INTO IND/HUF. SREF
PROBABILITIES DO NOT FULLY CAPTURE ITS EXTENT...BUT DO DEPICT IT
MIXING OUT LATER TODAY. HAVE HELD ONTO IT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THIS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS OF GOOD MIXING TO ERODE IT EFFECTIVELY.
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND THE 20KT LEVEL AT ALL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. GUSTS WILL CALM DOWN THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA. HAVE CARRIED VCSH FOR NOW
AND WILL ALLOW FUTURE PACKAGES TO REFINE TIMING.
OUTSIDE OF ANY POSSIBLE SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY ISSUES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
AFTER A DRY MILD DAY TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COOLER DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TURN WARMER FOR FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REESTABLISHES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA HAS BEEN EXPANDING
NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. PILOT REPORTS INDICATE THIS
CLOUD DECK IS QUITE THIN...SO EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THINK PARTLY CLOUDY WILL STILL WORK OVERALL
TODAY...BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL ZONES.
THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST TODAY/S HIGHS ARE WITHIN
REACH...BUT THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME...BUT THE HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED LATER TODAY WHEN LOW CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING W/NW
ACROSS KENTUCKY AS WELL. WITH LIGHT E/SE FLOW...TEMPS RANGED FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 07Z.
INITIAL ISSUE FOCUSES ON THE STRATUS DECK EXPANDING TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A S/SE DIRECTION. AT THE SAME TIME...BOTH
THE RAP AND NAM APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING MOISTURE ON THE 925/950 MB
LEVELS VERSUS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK AS OF
07Z. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN LOWER CLOUDS REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND POSSIBLY
GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS I-70 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER DAYBREAK. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE GRIDS SOUTHEAST
OF THE INDY METRO FOR THE MORNING AND MONITOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SURFACE
WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH SUSTAINEDS TO
NEAR 15MPH BY LATE DAY.
TEMPS...EVENTUAL EXTENT OF STRATUS DECK BOTH IN COVERAGE AND TIME
WILL BE CRITICAL...AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY...ON DETERMINING HOW WARM
TEMPS GO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
WARM ADVECTION TODAY...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S. GENERALLY NEAR MAVMOS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH DID
UNDERCUT MAV BY A FEW DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND SWING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE MORNING. MOISTURE
FETCH IS LIMITED OVERALL BUT FORCING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ROTATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND PROMOTE A
BRIEF PERIOD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIP AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
BIG ISSUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE WINDS. THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-30MPH...BUT PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER
INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT WHAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND. AS COLD
ADVECTION TAKES HOLD ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT BEING PULLED TO THE SURFACE AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
PROMOTE EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MIXING. MAX GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WELL. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUBTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS REPLACED BY A SURFACE RIDGE. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AIDED BY A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. NICE AXIS OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AT THE NOSE OF THE
JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUPPORT SOME
RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY BY 12Z
FRIDAY.
TEMPS...HIGHS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
THEREAFTER WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION. PREFERRED COLDER MAVMOS HIGHS.
MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR THURSDAY AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO RECOVER
NICELY INTO THE 50S WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED REASONABLE FOR LOWS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER ONE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRST SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS K INDICES AS HIGH AS 30 PLUS INDICATE A HEALTHY
PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS FRIDAY EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM
IS MUCH MORE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURE WISE...AND WILL CARRY RAIN OR
SNOW FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN QUITE WARM IN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. NEAR TO JUST BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER COLD
INTRUSION FROM THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO END.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN QUICKLY AT BMG AND WITHIN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AT IND/HUF AS A STRATUS DECK EXPANDS NORTHWESTWARD.
LAF MAY ESCAPE MVFR CONDITIONS AS MIXING BEGINS TO ERODE THE STRATUS
DECK LATER THIS MORNING.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE STRATUS DECK INTO IND/HUF. SREF
PROBABILITIES DO NOT FULLY CAPTURE ITS EXTENT...BUT DO DEPICT IT
MIXING OUT LATER TODAY. HAVE HELD ONTO IT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THIS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS OF GOOD MIXING TO ERODE IT EFFECTIVELY.
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND THE 20KT LEVEL AT ALL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. GUSTS WILL CALM DOWN THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA. HAVE CARRIED VCSH FOR NOW
AND WILL ALLOW FUTURE PACKAGES TO REFINE TIMING.
OUTSIDE OF ANY POSSIBLE SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY ISSUES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JAS
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
717 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
AFTER A DRY MILD DAY TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COOLER DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TURN WARMER FOR FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REESTABLISHES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING W/NW
ACROSS KENTUCKY AS WELL. WITH LIGHT E/SE FLOW...TEMPS RANGED FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 07Z.
INITIAL ISSUE FOCUSES ON THE STRATUS DECK EXPANDING TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A S/SE DIRECTION. AT THE SAME TIME...BOTH
THE RAP AND NAM APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING MOISTURE ON THE 925/950 MB
LEVELS VERSUS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK AS OF
07Z. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN LOWER CLOUDS REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND POSSIBLY
GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS I-70 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER DAYBREAK. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE GRIDS SOUTHEAST
OF THE INDY METRO FOR THE MORNING AND MONITOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SURFACE
WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH SUSTAINEDS TO
NEAR 15MPH BY LATE DAY.
TEMPS...EVENTUAL EXTENT OF STRATUS DECK BOTH IN COVERAGE AND TIME
WILL BE CRITICAL...AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY...ON DETERMINING HOW WARM
TEMPS GO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
WARM ADVECTION TODAY...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S. GENERALLY NEAR MAVMOS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH DID
UNDERCUT MAV BY A FEW DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND SWING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE MORNING. MOISTURE
FETCH IS LIMITED OVERALL BUT FORCING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ROTATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND PROMOTE A
BRIEF PERIOD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIP AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
BIG ISSUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE WINDS. THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-30MPH...BUT PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER
INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT WHAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND. AS COLD
ADVECTION TAKES HOLD ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT BEING PULLED TO THE SURFACE AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
PROMOTE EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MIXING. MAX GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WELL. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUBTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS REPLACED BY A SURFACE RIDGE. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AIDED BY A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. NICE AXIS OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AT THE NOSE OF THE
JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUPPORT SOME
RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY BY 12Z
FRIDAY.
TEMPS...HIGHS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
THEREAFTER WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION. PREFERRED COLDER MAVMOS HIGHS.
MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR THURSDAY AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO RECOVER
NICELY INTO THE 50S WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED REASONABLE FOR LOWS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER ONE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRST SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS K INDICES AS HIGH AS 30 PLUS INDICATE A HEALTHY
PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS FRIDAY EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM
IS MUCH MORE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURE WISE...AND WILL CARRY RAIN OR
SNOW FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN QUITE WARM IN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. NEAR TO JUST BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER COLD
INTRUSION FROM THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO END.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN QUICKLY AT BMG AND WITHIN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AT IND/HUF AS A STRATUS DECK EXPANDS NORTHWESTWARD.
LAF MAY ESCAPE MVFR CONDITIONS AS MIXING BEGINS TO ERODE THE STRATUS
DECK LATER THIS MORNING.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE STRATUS DECK INTO IND/HUF. SREF
PROBABILITIES DO NOT FULLY CAPTURE ITS EXTENT...BUT DO DEPICT IT
MIXING OUT LATER TODAY. HAVE HELD ONTO IT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THIS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS OF GOOD MIXING TO ERODE IT EFFECTIVELY.
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND THE 20KT LEVEL AT ALL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. GUSTS WILL CALM DOWN THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA. HAVE CARRIED VCSH FOR NOW
AND WILL ALLOW FUTURE PACKAGES TO REFINE TIMING.
OUTSIDE OF ANY POSSIBLE SHOWERS...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY ISSUES DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
AFTER A DRY MILD DAY TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COOLER DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TURN WARMER FOR FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REESTABLISHES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING W/NW
ACROSS KENTUCKY AS WELL. WITH LIGHT E/SE FLOW...TEMPS RANGED FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 07Z.
INITIAL ISSUE FOCUSES ON THE STRATUS DECK EXPANDING TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A S/SE DIRECTION. AT THE SAME TIME...BOTH
THE RAP AND NAM APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING MOISTURE ON THE 925/950 MB
LEVELS VERSUS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK AS OF
07Z. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN LOWER CLOUDS REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND POSSIBLY
GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS I-70 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER DAYBREAK. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE GRIDS SOUTHEAST
OF THE INDY METRO FOR THE MORNING AND MONITOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SURFACE
WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH SUSTAINEDS TO
NEAR 15MPH BY LATE DAY.
TEMPS...EVENTUAL EXTENT OF STRATUS DECK BOTH IN COVERAGE AND TIME
WILL BE CRITICAL...AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY...ON DETERMINING HOW WARM
TEMPS GO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
WARM ADVECTION TODAY...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S. GENERALLY NEAR MAVMOS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH DID
UNDERCUT MAV BY A FEW DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND SWING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE MORNING. MOISTURE
FETCH IS LIMITED OVERALL BUT FORCING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ROTATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND PROMOTE A
BRIEF PERIOD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIP AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
BIG ISSUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE WINDS. THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-30MPH...BUT PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER
INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT WHAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND. AS COLD
ADVECTION TAKES HOLD ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT BEING PULLED TO THE SURFACE AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
PROMOTE EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MIXING. MAX GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WELL. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUBTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS REPLACED BY A SURFACE RIDGE. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AIDED BY A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. NICE AXIS OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AT THE NOSE OF THE
JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUPPORT SOME
RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY BY 12Z
FRIDAY.
TEMPS...HIGHS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
THEREAFTER WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION. PREFERRED COLDER MAVMOS HIGHS.
MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR THURSDAY AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO RECOVER
NICELY INTO THE 50S WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED REASONABLE FOR LOWS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER ONE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRST SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS K INDICES AS HIGH AS 30 PLUS INDICATE A HEALTHY
PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS FRIDAY EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM
IS MUCH MORE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURE WISE...AND WILL CARRY RAIN OR
SNOW FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN QUITE WARM IN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. NEAR TO JUST BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER COLD
INTRUSION FROM THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO END.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
PUSHED BACK ARRIVAL TIME OF LOW STRATUS AT IND/BMG. DIRECT
EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS IT HERE BY 16-18Z...BUT EXPECT SOME DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR ON THE LEADING EDGE. PUSHED IT BACK TO 12Z AT BOTH SITES
AND WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST. VFR WILL BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN SITES. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AROUND 3000FT REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT EVEN LARGER CLOUD DECK FARTHER SOUTHEAST IS ALREADY
MOVING BACK NORTHWEST. ALSO...SHORT RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING MVFR DECK MOVING BACK IN TONIGHT.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AT KIND
AND KBMG. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO ADD TO WESTERN SITES...BUT IT
IS STILL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DECK COULD SNEAK THAT FAR WEST.
CEILINGS AS LOW AS BKN010 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THIS DECK.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW TO MEDIUM.
NOT SURE ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER
CHANCES FOR STRATUS THAN FOG...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT 6SM LATE
TONIGHT.
ANY LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TUESDAY MORNING...BUT MOISTURE
MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PUT THEM AT
KBMG BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY AND LOW VFR ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z.
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20KT AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...50/NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
AFTER A DRY MILD DAY TODAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COOLER DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TURN WARMER FOR FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. RAIN
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REESTABLISHES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING W/NW
ACROSS KENTUCKY AS WELL. WITH LIGHT E/SE FLOW...TEMPS RANGED FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 07Z.
INITIAL ISSUE FOCUSES ON THE STRATUS DECK EXPANDING TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO A S/SE DIRECTION. AT THE SAME TIME...BOTH
THE RAP AND NAM APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING MOISTURE ON THE 925/950 MB
LEVELS VERSUS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK AS OF 07Z.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN LOWER CLOUDS REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND POSSIBLY
GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS I-70 OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER DAYBREAK. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE GRIDS SOUTHEAST
OF THE INDY METRO FOR THE MORNING AND MONITOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SURFACE
WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH SUSTAINEDS TO
NEAR 15MPH BY LATE DAY.
TEMPS...EVENTUAL EXTENT OF STRATUS DECK BOTH IN COVERAGE AND TIME
WILL BE CRITICAL...AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY...ON DETERMINING HOW WARM
TEMPS GO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
WARM ADVECTION TODAY...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S. GENERALLY NEAR MAVMOS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH DID
UNDERCUT MAV BY A FEW DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PINWHEEL INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND SWING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE MORNING. MOISTURE
FETCH IS LIMITED OVERALL BUT FORCING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ROTATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AND PROMOTE A
BRIEF PERIOD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO PRECIP AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
BIG ISSUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE WINDS. THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-30MPH...BUT PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER
INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT WHAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND. AS COLD
ADVECTION TAKES HOLD ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT BEING PULLED TO THE SURFACE AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
PROMOTE EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MIXING. MAX GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WELL. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUBTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT.
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS REPLACED BY A SURFACE RIDGE. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AIDED BY A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. NICE AXIS OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AT THE NOSE OF THE
JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUPPORT SOME
RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY BY 12Z
FRIDAY.
TEMPS...HIGHS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS
THEREAFTER WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION. PREFERRED COLDER MAVMOS HIGHS.
MAVMOS WAS ALSO PREFERRED FOR THURSDAY AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO RECOVER
NICELY INTO THE 50S WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED REASONABLE FOR LOWS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DURING THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER ONE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRST SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS K INDICES AS HIGH AS 30 PLUS INDICATE A HEALTHY
PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS FRIDAY EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM
IS MUCH MORE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURE WISE...AND WILL CARRY RAIN OR
SNOW FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN QUITE WARM IN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE BECOMING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. NEAR TO JUST BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER COLD
INTRUSION FROM THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO END.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST. VFR WILL BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN SITES. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AROUND 3000FT REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT EVEN LARGER CLOUD DECK FARTHER SOUTHEAST IS ALREADY
MOVING BACK NORTHWEST. ALSO...SHORT RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING MVFR DECK MOVING BACK IN TONIGHT.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AT KIND
AND KBMG. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO ADD TO WESTERN SITES...BUT IT
IS STILL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DECK COULD SNEAK THAT FAR WEST.
CEILINGS AS LOW AS BKN010 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THIS DECK.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW TO MEDIUM.
NOT SURE ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER
CHANCES FOR STRATUS THAN FOG...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT 6SM LATE
TONIGHT.
ANY LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TUESDAY MORNING...BUT MOISTURE
MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PUT THEM AT
KBMG BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY AND LOW VFR ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z.
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20KT AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...50
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION...WITH MAIN CENTER ACROSS SW
KS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOMINATED BY RIDING...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS/POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY. THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING DUE TO MELTING
SNOW...BUT WITH AIR MASS ALOFT WARMING THE TEMP TREND HAS BEEN
POSITIVE. I WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS...OTHERWISE AFTERNOON FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. WE COULD STILL SEE A SMALL AREA OF EASTERN RED
WILLOW/NORTHERN NORTON COUNTY IMPACTED BY SNOW PACK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (WHERE AMOUNTS 5-6" FELL)...OTHERWISE THIS SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WAA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH GOOD MIXING WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S (POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IN THE WEST). LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD
ALSO MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES WELL
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR CWA (MINIMAL SURFACE GRADIENT) WE WILL NEED WINDS ALOFT
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE MUCH OTHER THAN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. THERE IS A LACK OF UNIDIRECTIONAL
GRADIENT ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A VERTICAL THERMAL
GRADIENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS I AM WONDERING IF MODEL WINDS ARE TOO
STRONG ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON GUSTS IS EVEN SMALLER. I
DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH (ASSUMING
MODEL WINDS ALOFT ARE RIGHT) DUE TO THE FAVORABLE MIXING...BUT I
DOUBT THIS WOULD BE FOR 3HR IF IT DID OCCUR. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
RECENT SNOW MELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND MARGINAL WINDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA I AM NOT PLANNING A RFW AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
THIS FAR SOUTH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 09Z-12Z.
SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH AT 20-25 KNOTS FRIDAY...
PER THE HIGHER WIND SPEED SOLUTIONS PRESENTED BY THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER FROM THURSDAY
DUE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH 250 MB JET CORE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT
SOME UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND POSITION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET. EXPECT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY BY 12Z SATURDAY.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT KEEPING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE DAY. BASED ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES...PLACED
A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE MORNING...
BECOMING ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED OVER THE AREA...BUT A
COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SO...EXPECT DRY WEATHER...BUT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A VERY AMPLIFIED 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS OR THEIR INTENSITIES. FOR NOW...KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WEST COAST RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES
EAST BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
500 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 455 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY/BLOWING SNOW CAUSING SOME LOW
VISIBILITIES IN SEVERAL AREAS...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THIS IN
CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING PER COORDINATION EARLIER TODAY AND NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. WHILE WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RISE AND VERY SPORADIC...STARTING TO SEE A LOT OF
CONVECTIVE TYPE SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEAR TERM MODELED SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WITH STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC IN THIS AREA...EXPECT STRONG
WINDS TO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AS OPPOSED TO A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND TYPE EVENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AT 19Z UPPER LOW CENTERED ON
TOP OF GOODLAND WITH STRONGEST SFC WIND GUSTS GENERALLY WEST OF A
LINE FROM FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON WHERE GUSTS IN OUR PART OF THE AREA
APPROACHING 50 MPH WHILE JUST OUTSIDE OF IT GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
BEING REPORTED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST REACHING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND 00Z THEN WEAKENING A BIT
AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. STRONGEST SFC WINDS
AND GUSTS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST BEHIND THE UPPER LOW SO
NO CHANGES TO HIGH WIND WARNING. 18Z RUC SHOWS 850-800MB WINDS
ACTUALLY INCREASING ON THE BACKSIDE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNSET OUT EAST
WHICH IS WHERE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST SO FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE.
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED BAND OF SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. AM EXPECTING THE WORST
CONDITIONS PRESENTLY IN EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE) BY
23Z CONTINUING EAST AND INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WILL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
UNDER QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
(WEST TO EAST).
WEDNESDAY...CLOUDINESS INCREASES A BIT AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOW 50S TO NEAR 60 (WEST TO
EAST).
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 50S. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
WINDS...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF OF OUR CWA AND SEND REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COOLER TEMPS INTO THE PLAINS. THESE QUICK MOVING FEATURES ARE ON
LESS THAN IDEAL TRACKS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE RUN-RUN ON EVOLUTION OF
THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES. BEST MODEL OVERLAP SEEMS TO BE ON PRECIP
CHANCES SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS WOULD STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND IN
THIS PATTERN/THIS RANGE I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS.
TEMPS SHOULD START OUT BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY (40S) BEFORE SEASONAL
TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY (50S). BY NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER
THE CWA BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE LATER
PERIODS CONSIDERING THE MODEL SPREAD/LACK OF CONTINUITY...SO
DECIDED AGAINST MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
KGLD...MVFR CIGS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO IFR
RANGE BETWEEN 20Z AND 05Z AS WRAPAROUND SNOWFALL...WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
AFTER 06Z CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-12KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.
KMCK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z IN
SNOW...WIND GUSTS TO 45KTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. AFTER 02Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO RETURN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12KTS EXPECTED AFTER 04Z OR SO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-016.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
350 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2014
...Updated for long term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
Models this morning are in good agreement with moving the upper
level trough east into central Kansas early this evening. The
better upper level dynamics will also begin to shift east as a
secondary surface boundary surges south across western Kansas
late this afternoon. As this boundary moves across southwest
Kansas, northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph will continue as low
level moisture increases. Given the timing of the exiting upper
level trough and increasing low level moisture will retain small
precipitation chances across north central Kansas early this
evening. Further south will keep an increase in clouds early this
evening but will not mention precipitation chances at this time.
Wind speeds across southeast Colorado earlier this afternoon have
on occasion approached high wind warning criteria. Visibilities
where these stronger winds were reported have been lowered to one
mile or less due to blowing dust. 12z NAM and 17z RAP indicated
the tightest surface pressure gradient along with the strongest
925mb to 850mb winds between 21z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday will be
near the Colorado border with the mean mixdown winds suggesting
sustained winds of near high wind warning criteria. Based on that
the models continue to suggest winds will be near High wind
warning criteria late today in far southwest Kansas and the 18z
wind speeds/gusts across southeast Colorado will continue the high
wind warning west of highway 83. Will also mention visibility
issues due to blowing dust. Further east will keep the wind
advisory going until 02z.
Surface ridge axis will then begin to build across western Kansas
towards 06z as the upper level trough moves from eastern Kansas
into Missouri. Given the cloud cover overnight along with wind
speeds of 10 to 15 mph the previous forecast still looks on track
with lows mainly in the mid to upper 20s
Westerly downslope flow will improve across western Kansas on
Wednesday with 925mb temperatures warmer around 6c from 00z
Wednesday to 00z Thursday. 850mb temperature trends over the same
time frame be +3c to +5c. Based on this warming trend and mostly
sunny conditions the highs mid week should easily rebound to near
60 degrees for much of western Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
Lee troughing will develop Thursday ahead of the next upper level
system entering the northern Rockies, leading to south winds and warmer
temperatures. After this system traverses the northern plains on
Friday, a cold front will pass through western Kansas in its wake,
leading to falling high temperatures into the 60s Friday and 50s
Saturday. As the cool air gets deeper by Saturday night, mid level
isentropic lift may result in some light rain or light snow,
especially over far southwestern Kansas. Temperatures Sunday will
still be seasonably cool, with highs in the lower 50s.
A slight warming trend can be expected Sunday (highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s) as a weak lee trough develops ahead of the next
upper level trough. This system will push yet another cold front
through western Kansas by later Monday, with a return of cooler than
average high and low temperatures by Monday night and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
Gusty northwest winds at 26kts to near 35 knots can be expected
through the remainder of the day across western Kansas. The
stronger winds are currently expected to occur at GCK and DDC
between 20z Tuesday and 01z Wednesday as a secondary surface
boundary moves across western Kansas. An area of low VFR or high
MVFR ceilings can also be expected for several hours late
today/early tonight behind this surface boundary given the latest
RAP and HRRR. Visibilities will briefly be reduced at times from
blowing dust. A few sprinkles or a brief shower will be possible
with the MVFR ceilings around 00z, mainly in the HYS area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 60 32 71 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 24 60 32 70 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 26 59 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 25 61 32 72 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 28 59 30 70 / 30 0 0 0
P28 32 62 33 72 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-044>046-
064>066-077>081-087>090.
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AT 19Z UPPER LOW CENTERED ON
TOP OF GOODLAND WITH STRONGEST SFC WIND GUSTS GENERALLY WEST OF A
LINE FROM FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON WHERE GUSTS IN OUR PART OF THE AREA
APPROACHING 50 MPH WHILE JUST OUTSIDE OF IT GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
BEING REPORTED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST REACHING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND 00Z THEN WEAKENING A BIT
AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. STRONGEST SFC WINDS
AND GUSTS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST BEHIND THE UPPER LOW SO
NO CHANGES TO HIGH WIND WARNING. 18Z RUC SHOWS 850-800MB WINDS
ACTUALLY INCREASING ON THE BACKSIDE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNSET OUT EAST
WHICH IS WHERE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST SO FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE.
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED BAND OF SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. AM EXPECTING THE WORST
CONDITIONS PRESENTLY IN EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE) BY
23Z CONTINUING EAST AND INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WILL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
UNDER QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
(WEST TO EAST).
WEDNESDAY...CLOUDINESS INCREASES A BIT AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOW 50S TO NEAR 60 (WEST TO
EAST).
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 50S. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
WINDS...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF OF OUR CWA AND SEND REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COOLER TEMPS INTO THE PLAINS. THESE QUICK MOVING FEATURES ARE ON
LESS THAN IDEAL TRACKS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE RUN-RUN ON EVOLUTION OF
THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES. BEST MODEL OVERLAP SEEMS TO BE ON PRECIP
CHANCES SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS WOULD STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND IN
THIS PATTERN/THIS RANGE I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS.
TEMPS SHOULD START OUT BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY (40S) BEFORE SEASONAL
TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY (50S). BY NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER
THE CWA BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE LATER
PERIODS CONSIDERING THE MODEL SPREAD/LACK OF CONTINUITY...SO
DECIDED AGAINST MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
KGLD...MVFR CIGS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO IFR
RANGE BETWEEN 20Z AND 05Z AS WRAPAROUND SNOWFALL...WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
AFTER 06Z CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-12KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.
KMCK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z IN
SNOW...WIND GUSTS TO 45KTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. AFTER 02Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO RETURN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12KTS EXPECTED AFTER 04Z OR SO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-016.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
207 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
UPDATE SENT TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND FORECAST CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. RUC HANDLING THINGS WELL IN NEARLY EVERY
REGARD SO RELIED ON IT PRETTY HEAVILY.
AT 18Z UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA. RUC FORECASTS THE LOW TO MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTON BY
21Z THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 00Z
AND FINALLY THE OMAHA AREA BY 03Z.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SNOW...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES...POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER.
AS FOR THE WIND...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THE STRONGEST WINDS
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST THEN YESTERDAYS MODELS HAVE...THUS A DELAY IN THE ONSET
OF STRONGEST WINDS. KLIC NOW GUSTING 55KTS (63 MPH). AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST STRONGER WINDS WILL MOVE IN AND STILL
EXPECTING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS TO BE MET.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THREAT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AT PRESENT TIME
THREAT LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO BURLINGTON COLORADO.
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...HIGHEST ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AND THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. RAIN IS
PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE FOR SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PREDOMINANTLY SNOW AS ONE TRAVELS
NORTHWEST.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERHAPS 3 INCHES OR SO. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THE SNOW AND WIND WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL CREATE
SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND COULD FLIRT AT TIMES WITH
APPROACHING 1/4 MILE WHICH WOULD CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
AT PRESENT TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT HIGHLITES
BUT WILL MENTION THE THREAT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE
STATEMENT FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN WYOMING. ON
THE WEST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD COVER
HAS ACCOMPANIED THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE LIGHT
SNOW WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER WYOMING
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA EXTENDING WEST THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING.
CLOSER TO HOME THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING WAS NOW THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD OF KANSAS AND ALMOST
HALFWAY THROUGH NEBRASKA.
TODAY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. MODELS SHOW GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES REMAINING EAST OF
THE HIGH WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DURING THE
EARLY EVENING THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECLINE AS THE TEMPERATURES
COOL PREVENTING THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE FROM MIXING
DOWN.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...MID LEVEL LIFT IN THE 600-800MB LAYER WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE MID LEVEL LOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL LAYER OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FROM 800-700MB AS WELL. AS THE MID LEVEL
LIFT MOVES OVER THE AREA SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA SATURATE TO THE GROUND. THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIP.
THAT DEVELOPS WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND SO HAVE INCREASED PRECIP.
CHANCES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24 AS A RESULT. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
INDICATE THE PRECIP. OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE
MOSTLY SNOW...WITH THE PRECIP. TRANSITIONING TO RAIN TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRECIP. WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LIFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BY THE EVENING ANTICIPATE 2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS/NE LINE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WHERE
SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE LIKELY. SINCE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ALREADY
OUT...WILL MENTION THE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE WARNING. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF VISIBILITIES DROPPED TO UNDER A MILE AT TIMES
IN LOCATIONS WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES...WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OF THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY.
HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO PREDOMINANTLY BE IN THE 2-4
MILE RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THE
THREAT OF BLOWING DUST TO DECLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 24 SINCE ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD HELP SETTLE THE DUST SINCE THE
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST SINCE THIS AREA IS LESS FAVORED
FOR PRECIP. ON A SIDE NOTE HAVE INVESTIGATED THE AIR QUALITY FORECAST
FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE MODEL SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE
BLOWING DUST OCCURRING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ONLY GUESS FOR WHY IS
THE MODEL THINKS THE PRECIP. WILL LIMIT THE EFFECT OF BLOWING DUST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE FURTHER NORTH.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL DECLINE...BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BLOWING DUST IN THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING
AND WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2Z SINCE MODELS SHOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH TO MIX TO THE GROUND. LATER
SHIFTS CAN CANCEL THE HAZARD EARLY OR END IT IN SECTIONS IF
NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN BEHIND IT. DRIER...WARMER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 50S. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
WINDS...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF OF OUR CWA AND SEND REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COOLER TEMPS INTO THE PLAINS. THESE QUICK MOVING FEATURES ARE ON
LESS THAN IDEAL TRACKS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE RUN-RUN ON EVOLUTION OF
THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES. BEST MODEL OVERLAP SEEMS TO BE ON PRECIP
CHANCES SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS WOULD STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND IN
THIS PATTERN/THIS RANGE I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS.
TEMPS SHOULD START OUT BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY (40S) BEFORE SEASONAL
TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY (50S). BY NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER
THE CWA BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE LATER
PERIODS CONSIDERING THE MODEL SPREAD/LACK OF CONTINUITY...SO
DECIDED AGAINST MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
KGLD...MVFR CIGS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO IFR
RANGE BETWEEN 20Z AND 05Z AS WRAPAROUND SNOWFALL...WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
AFTER 06Z CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-12KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.
KMCK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z IN
SNOW...WIND GUSTS TO 45KTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. AFTER 02Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO RETURN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12KTS EXPECTED AFTER 04Z OR SO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-016.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
209 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2014
...Updated short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
Models this morning are in good agreement with moving the upper
level trough east into central Kansas early this evening. The
better upper level dynamics will also begin to shift east as a
secondary surface boundary surges south across western Kansas
late this afternoon. As this boundary moves across southwest
Kansas, northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph will continue as low
level moisture increases. Given the timing of the exiting upper
level trough and increasing low level moisture will retain small
precipitation chances across north central Kansas early this
evening. Further south will keep an increase in clouds early this
evening but will not mention precipitation chances at this time.
Wind speeds across southeast Colorado earlier this afternoon have
on occasion approached high wind warning criteria. Visibilities
where these stronger winds were reported have been lowered to one
mile or less due to blowing dust. 12z NAM and 17z RAP indicated
the tightest surface pressure gradient along with the strongest
925mb to 850mb winds between 21z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday will be
near the Colorado border with the mean mixdown winds suggesting
sustained winds of near high wind warning criteria. Based on that
the models continue to suggest winds will be near High wind
warning criteria late today in far southwest Kansas and the 18z
wind speeds/gusts across southeast Colorado will continue the high
wind warning west of highway 83. Will also mention visibility
issues due to blowing dust. Further east will keep the wind
advisory going until 02z.
Surface ridge axis will then begin to build across western Kansas
towards 06z as the upper level trough moves from eastern Kansas
into Missouri. Given the cloud cover overnight along with wind
speeds of 10 to 15 mph the previous forecast still looks on track
with lows mainly in the mid to upper 20s
Westerly downslope flow will improve across western Kansas on
Wednesday with 925mb temperatures warmer around 6c from 00z
Wednesday to 00z Thursday. 850mb temperature trends over the same
time frame be +3c to +5c. Based on this warming trend and mostly
sunny conditions the highs mid week should easily rebound to near
60 degrees for much of western Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
Zonal west/east flow will generally be found above the Central
Plains throughout the extended period with a few weak shortwaves
moving through the Northern Plains. The first weak shortwave is
PROGGED to move through western Canada Thursday then through the
Northern Plains Thursday night into Friday. As this feature
approaches, surface lee troughing will develop shifting westerly
winds on Wednesday to the south southwest Wednesday night into
Thursday. 850 mb temperatures rebound into the single digits
Wednesday then teens on Thursday. This should bring increasing
temperatures with highs in the lower 60s Wednesday and lower 70s
Thursday. Mostly clear skies are anticipated Wednesday into Thursday
with only a few high clouds observed. A cold front is then progged
to move through the area Thursday night into Friday as the
aforementioned shortwave moves into the Northern Plains. This will
shift winds to more of a northerly direction Thursday night into
Friday, then to the northeast Friday night. No precipitation is
expected with this cold front with only a slight increase in mid to
upper level clouds. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected on
Friday with highs ranging from the mid 50s across west central
Kansas to lower 60s across the KS/CO border. Lows Thursday through
Saturday morning will generally be in the 30s.
Models then suggest the next upper level shortwave to move through
the Northern Plains Saturday, then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This will help push an arctic high down into the Northern
Plains. Easterly winds will be observed across western Kansas
Saturday into Saturday night. This will bring easterly upslope flow
to western Kansas allowing low to mid level clouds to increase.
Winds then shift to the southeast on Sunday as the high treks slowly
to the southeast. A slight chance of showers will be possible
Saturday night into Sunday, otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies.
Cooler temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday with highs
around 50 degrees with lows in the lower 30s.
Another upper level shortwave may move through the Northern Plains
Monday. This feature could help push another cold front through the
area shifting winds back to the north. No precipitation is expected
Monday at this time with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures warm
slightly on Monday with highs in the lower 60s then cool back down
to the 50s behind the aforementioned front Tuesday. Lows will
continue to dip into the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
Gusty northwest winds at 26kts to near 35 knots can be expected
through the remainder of the day across western Kansas. The
stronger winds are currently expected to occur at GCK and DDC
between 20z Tuesday and 01z Wednesday as a secondary surface
boundary moves across western Kansas. An area of low VFR or high
MVFR ceilings can also be expected for several hours late
today/early tonight behind this surface boundary given the latest
RAP and HRRR. Visibilities will briefly be reduced at times from
blowing dust. A few sprinkles or a brief shower will be possible
with the MVFR ceilings around 00z, mainly in the HYS area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 62 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 24 61 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 24 61 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 25 62 34 74 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 27 61 33 71 / 20 0 0 0
P28 31 63 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-044>046-
064>066-077>081-087>090.
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1215 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
UPDATE SENT TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND FORECAST CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. RUC HANDLING THINGS WELL IN NEARLY EVERY
REGARD SO RELIED ON IT PRETTY HEAVILY.
AT 18Z UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA. RUC FORECASTS THE LOW TO MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTON BY
21Z THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 00Z
AND FINALLY THE OMAHA AREA BY 03Z.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SNOW...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES...POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER.
AS FOR THE WIND...WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD THE STRONGEST WINDS
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST THEN YESTERDAYS MODELS HAVE...THUS A DELAY IN THE ONSET
OF STRONGEST WINDS. KLIC NOW GUSTING 55KTS (63 MPH). AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST STRONGER WINDS WILL MOVE IN AND STILL
EXPECTING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS TO BE MET.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THREAT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AT PRESENT TIME
THREAT LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO BURLINGTON COLORADO.
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...HIGHEST ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AND THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. RAIN IS
PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE FOR SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PREDOMINANTLY SNOW AS ONE TRAVELS
NORTHWEST.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERHAPS 3 INCHES OR SO. THE
PROBLEM IS THAT THE SNOW AND WIND WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL CREATE
SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND COULD FLIRT AT TIMES WITH
APPROACHING 1/4 MILE WHICH WOULD CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
AT PRESENT TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT HIGHLITES
BUT WILL MENTION THE THREAT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE
STATEMENT FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN WYOMING. ON
THE WEST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD COVER
HAS ACCOMPANIED THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE LIGHT
SNOW WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER WYOMING
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA EXTENDING WEST THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING.
CLOSER TO HOME THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING WAS NOW THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD OF KANSAS AND ALMOST
HALFWAY THROUGH NEBRASKA.
TODAY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. MODELS SHOW GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES REMAINING EAST OF
THE HIGH WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DURING THE
EARLY EVENING THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECLINE AS THE TEMPERATURES
COOL PREVENTING THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE FROM MIXING
DOWN.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...MID LEVEL LIFT IN THE 600-800MB LAYER WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE MID LEVEL LOW. SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL LAYER OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FROM 800-700MB AS WELL. AS THE MID LEVEL
LIFT MOVES OVER THE AREA SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA SATURATE TO THE GROUND. THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIP.
THAT DEVELOPS WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND SO HAVE INCREASED PRECIP.
CHANCES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24 AS A RESULT. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
INDICATE THE PRECIP. OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE
MOSTLY SNOW...WITH THE PRECIP. TRANSITIONING TO RAIN TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRECIP. WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LIFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BY THE EVENING ANTICIPATE 2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS/NE LINE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24 WHERE
SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE LIKELY. SINCE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ALREADY
OUT...WILL MENTION THE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE WARNING. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF VISIBILITIES DROPPED TO UNDER A MILE AT TIMES
IN LOCATIONS WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES...WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OF THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY.
HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO PREDOMINANTLY BE IN THE 2-4
MILE RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THE
THREAT OF BLOWING DUST TO DECLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 24 SINCE ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD HELP SETTLE THE DUST SINCE THE
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST SINCE THIS AREA IS LESS FAVORED
FOR PRECIP. ON A SIDE NOTE HAVE INVESTIGATED THE AIR QUALITY FORECAST
FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE MODEL SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE
BLOWING DUST OCCURRING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ONLY GUESS FOR WHY IS
THE MODEL THINKS THE PRECIP. WILL LIMIT THE EFFECT OF BLOWING DUST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE FURTHER NORTH.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL DECLINE...BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BLOWING DUST IN THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT. DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING
AND WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2Z SINCE MODELS SHOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH TO MIX TO THE GROUND. LATER
SHIFTS CAN CANCEL THE HAZARD EARLY OR END IT IN SECTIONS IF
NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN BEHIND IT. DRIER...WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
DRY AND MILD FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BECOMING COOLER WITH A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND. SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING EVOLVING INTO NORTHWESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW. GEM/ECMWF
DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PAC NW ACROSS THE COLORADO
ROCKIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT WITH ALMOST NO SUPPORT FROM THE
18Z AND 00Z GFS/GEFS DO BELIEVE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIP
SAT INTO SUN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IN THE BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNNY AND DRY. RH VALUES ON THURSDAY WILL
BE AROUND 10 PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH THAT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS TONIGHTS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
THAN YESTERDAY...AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A VERY LOW CHANCE /BUT
A CHANCE NONETHELESS/ FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BECOME
CRITICAL. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BRINGING BREEZY WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AT THE SAME
TIME AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE-SCALE LIFT...BUT GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND A DRY LAYER BELOW ABOUT 700MB ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND...AND WHILE JUST
WENT WITH STANDARD SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT ONLY ENDS UP BEING SPRINKLES/FLURRIES.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO A MILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THIS FRONT MAY CHANGE SO THERE IS
GENERALLY LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE ON THE MONDAY HIGH TEMPS...BUT
IF THE FROPA CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL APPROACH 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
KGLD...MVFR CIGS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL OCCASIONALLY FALL INTO IFR
RANGE BETWEEN 20Z AND 05Z AS WRAPAROUND SNOWFALL...WIND GUSTS TO
50KTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
AFTER 06Z CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-12KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.
KMCK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z IN
SNOW...WIND GUSTS TO 45KTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. AFTER 02Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO RETURN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12KTS EXPECTED AFTER 04Z OR SO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-016.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
710 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AND
TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES TO MATCH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED RETURNS EXITING FAR
NORTHERN MAINE AND ANOTHER LARGER AREA APPROACHING SW MAINE. THIS
AREA IS INDICATIVE OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD. ADJUSTED
THE POPS FURTHER EAST AND INCREASED THE PERCENTAGES UP TO 60-80%
AFTER 02Z IN THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS
SHOWED MOISTURE FROM 700MBS ON UP W/DRY AIRMASS BELOW THIS LEVEL.
THEREFORE, SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO SET IN INITIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST TO ALLOW PRECIP TO FALL AS SNOW. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE IN THE MID 30S AND WILL DROP BACK AS THAT
COOLING TAKES PLACE. DAYCREW HAD THIS HANDLED WELL.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND THE CENTRAL MAINE HIGHLANDS. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS ALL SNOW BUT BUT GRADUALLY MIX
WITH AND CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS AND
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS.
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW INCLUDING THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND POINTS
WEST THROUGH CLAYTON LAKE. A TRICKY FORECAST HERE SINCE WE COULD
SEE SNOW TOTALS NEAR OR EXCEEDING LOW END WINTER STORM WARNING
CRITERIA...PARTICULARLY IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT WHICH SHOWS A
DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPING DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHWEST MAINE (ZONE 1/3/4)
FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY REMAINING UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION THU NGT AS THE
UPPER TROF/LOW CROSSES THE REGION...RESULTING IN REMNANT RN/SN
SHWRS THU EVE MSLY ACROSS THE N CHGNG TO ALL SN SHWRS LATE THU NGT
AS LLVL COLD AIR SLOWLY RETURNS FROM THE NW...WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION. SN SHWRS MSLY ACROSS THE N FRI WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE BY FRI EVE AS THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES ENE INTO
THE ERN MARITIMES. WITH CLRG SKIES OVRNGT FRI...THERE IS LMTD
POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MSLY THE NW AS WINDS DIMINISH
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NARROW SFC RIDGE OVR THE REGION BY ERLY SAT
MORN. SO AFT NEAR SEASONAL HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FRI...OVRNGT
LOWS FRI NGT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN THU NGT...AND WE DID GO A
LITTLE BLO GUIDANCE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NW VLYS.
CLR SKIES ERLY SAT MORN THEN GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLDNSS LATE
SAT MORN INTO MIDDAY SAT AS ANOTHER S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
FROM THE GREAT LKS RAPIDLY APCHS. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...PRECIP
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MSLY BE IN THE FORM OF SN...EVEN ON THE
COAST...WHERE EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MIDDAY HIGHS
OF MID TO UPPER 30S TO COOL NEAR FZG BY MID AFTN. STEADY SN WITH
THIS FAST MOVG SYSTEM ONLY LOOKS TO LAST ABOUT 6 TO 8 HRS SAT AFTN
INTO ERLY SAT EVE...BEFORE TAPERING SCT SN SHWRS OVRNGT SAT. ALTHOUGH
FCST QPF LOOKS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST FOR THE SRN PTN OF THE FA...
HIGHER SN RATIOS ACROSS THE N WILL LIKELY PLACE THE MAX SNFL ZONE
OVR CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. IN ANY EVENT...TOTAL SNFL SHOULD BE SIG
LIGHTER WITH THIS EVENT THAN TNGT`S INTO THU EVENT...BUT ENOUGH TO
WEIGHT HIGHEST POPS LOW CATEGORICAL DOWNEAST AND CNTRL AND LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE N. DUE TO A COLDER START OF ERLY MORN TEMPS AND A
RAPID INCREASE IN CLD CVR...HI TEMPS SAT WILL AGAIN BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE ERN GULF OF MAINE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
FOR THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE AS THE LOW TRACKS
EAST INTO THE MARITIMES...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
WRN MAINE EARLY SUN MRNG. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH TUE MRNG...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND
ACROSS SRN CANADA FROM CNTRL QUEBEC SW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
COAST OF SC. BY EARLY WED MRNG...THE LOW WILL MOVE SE OUT OF THE
NRN GREAT LAKES INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EAST OF MAINE AS THE WARM FRONT THE SECOND LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM. BY WED MRNG THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO CNTRL MAINE. THE SECOND LOW CONTINUES TO MOVES NORTH TOWARD
SW NOVA SCOTIA. THE LOW MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY WED EVNG. THE
ATLANTIC LOW MOVES NORTH TO THE COAST OF CNTRL NOVA SCOTIA. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOWS WELL EAST
OF THE AREA...THE GFS MAINTAINS A TROUGH BACK ACROSS CNTRL MAINE.
THE THE MAJOR MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES.
LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE
WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS IN RN/SN SHWRS N AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST THU NGT WILL CONT INTO FRI...THEN TRANSITION TO
UNLMTD VFR ALL TAF SITES FRI NGT. VFR CONTS INTO SAT MORN...THEN
CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR IN LGT SNFL ALL TAF SITES BY SAT AFTN.
IFR CONDITIONS SAT NGT IMPROVES TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES SUN AND MON
IN A BKN-OVC SC CLG AND SCT SN SHWR REGIME.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1NM IN SNOW AND RAIN.
SHORT TERM: WE CONT THE SCA THRU THU NGT FOR ALL MZS DUE TO BOTH
WSW WINDS AND SEAS...AND LIKELY CONT INTO FRI...SPCLY FOR OUTER MZS
BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DROP BLO SCA CRITERIA FOR FRI NGT INTO SAT
MORN AS SFC HI PRES APCHS AND CRESTS THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE AGAIN SAT AFTN TO NEAR SCA LVLS BY SAT EVE. KEPT CLOSE TO
FCST WW3 WV HTS THIS PD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MEZ002-005-006-010.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003-004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MEZ011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1139 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING. ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG U.S. 10 NEAR BALDWIN AND REED CITY. IT WILL TURN
COLDER AND BREEZY TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
TAKES AIM ON THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NO
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT WILL GRADUALLY TURN COLDER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS COLDER
AIR SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE GRAND RIVER FOR KENT AND OTTAWA
COUNTIES. ICE ON THE MOVE WITH AT LEAST ONE JAM REPORTED UPSTREAM
OF ADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERTAINS TO THE EXIT OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THE AFFECTS OF THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.
AS FOR TONIGHT...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP
AS WELL AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD SAY ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEAVING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM RETURNS TO WORK THROUGH. THE MODELS DO
SHOW A BIT OF LOW LEVEL LIFT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH IS LIKELY
DUE TO FRICTIONAL PILLING UP OF THE WIND. LAST FEW FRAMES OF KGRR
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SOME RETURNS OFF THE LAKE OVER OTTAWA AND ALLEGAN
COUNTIES. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT PRECIP IS
GENERATED OFF THE LAKE BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. DELTA T/S ONLY
RISE TO AROUND 10C BY MORNING. MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. HAVE HIGH POPS CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z...BUT TAPER
THEM BACK THEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE AT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP
ALONG U.S. 10.
DENSE FOG FORMED MIDDAY IN AN AREA OF SLACK WINDS AS THE LOW MOVED
THROUGH. MOST OF THIS HAS LIFTED WITH ONLY BIG RAPIDS AT A QUARTER.
WILL HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE ENDING AS WINDS PICK UP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
SPEAKING OF WINDS...IT WILL GET BREEZY TONIGHT WITH 15 TO 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
THINKING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE
12Z ECMWF ON KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA WHICH IS
CURRENTLY UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED ON THE
EXACT PATH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS IT ZIPS EAST IN THE ZONAL
FLOW. HAVE RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. THE PRECIP WILL
TREND TOWARD RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BACK TO SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR THE LONG TERM IS THAT THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPS
DROP DOWN TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS AND WE WILL SEE UNSETTLED WX
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE
WILL HAVE ANY MAJOR STORMS IMPACT THE AREA FROM SAT THROUGH NEXT
WED.
THE TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THIS SAT. COOLER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRI/FRI NIGHT SYSTEM. WE
SHOULD SEE A BREAK A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON SAT BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONGER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CHC FOR SOME SNOW LATE SAT AND CONTINUE THEM INTO SUN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT COMING FROM THE NORTH. ANY
DECENT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED UP WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE.
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PCPN FOR LATE SUN THROUGH THE DAY
ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FROM SAT NIGHT. SNOW CHCS WILL
INCREASE THEN ONCE AGAIN...AND ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. THE MORE IMPORTANT THING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IT WILL HELP
TO ESTABLISH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE ERN U.S.. THE UPPER
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL BE COMING FROM NEAR SIBERIA AND THE ARCTIC AS
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR STRONG ALASKA/WRN COAST UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL REVISIT
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF OF THE LONG TERM...AND MOST LIKELY MANY
DAYS BEYOND THE CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
IFR HAS PERSISTED WITH BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF SNOW MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST OF KLAN BY 09Z. FOR THIS REAS I WILL SHOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE TAFS BY THAT TIME. BY NOON WITH
LOW LEVEL DRYING INCREASING...WE WILL SEE THE TAF SITES GO TO VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LARGE CHUNKS OF ICE WERE ON THE MOVE AROUND COMSTOCK PARK AND AN
ICE JAM WAS REPORTED UPSTREAM OF THE THORNAPPLE ENTRY ON THE GRAND
IN ADA. WATER WAS RISING BEHIND THE JAM. WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS. CLOSE MONITORING WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MIZ056-057.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
721 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING. ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG U.S. 10 NEAR BALDWIN AND REED CITY. IT WILL TURN
COLDER AND BREEZY TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
TAKES AIM ON THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NO
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT WILL GRADUALLY TURN COLDER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS COLDER
AIR SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE GRAND RIVER FOR KENT AND OTTAWA
COUNTIES. ICE ON THE MOVE WITH AT LEAST ONE JAM REPORTED UPSTREAM
OF ADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERTAINS TO THE EXIT OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THE AFFECTS OF THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.
AS FOR TONIGHT...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP
AS WELL AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD SAY ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEAVING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM RETURNS TO WORK THROUGH. THE MODELS DO
SHOW A BIT OF LOW LEVEL LIFT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH IS LIKELY
DUE TO FRICTIONAL PILLING UP OF THE WIND. LAST FEW FRAMES OF KGRR
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SOME RETURNS OFF THE LAKE OVER OTTAWA AND ALLEGAN
COUNTIES. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT PRECIP IS
GENERATED OFF THE LAKE BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. DELTA T/S ONLY
RISE TO AROUND 10C BY MORNING. MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. HAVE HIGH POPS CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z...BUT TAPER
THEM BACK THEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE AT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP
ALONG U.S. 10.
DENSE FOG FORMED MIDDAY IN AN AREA OF SLACK WINDS AS THE LOW MOVED
THROUGH. MOST OF THIS HAS LIFTED WITH ONLY BIG RAPIDS AT A QUARTER.
WILL HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE ENDING AS WINDS PICK UP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
SPEAKING OF WINDS...IT WILL GET BREEZY TONIGHT WITH 15 TO 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
THINKING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE
12Z ECMWF ON KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA WHICH IS
CURRENTLY UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED ON THE
EXACT PATH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS IT ZIPS EAST IN THE ZONAL
FLOW. HAVE RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. THE PRECIP WILL
TREND TOWARD RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BACK TO SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR THE LONG TERM IS THAT THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPS
DROP DOWN TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS AND WE WILL SEE UNSETTLED WX
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE
WILL HAVE ANY MAJOR STORMS IMPACT THE AREA FROM SAT THROUGH NEXT
WED.
THE TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THIS SAT. COOLER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRI/FRI NIGHT SYSTEM. WE
SHOULD SEE A BREAK A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON SAT BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONGER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CHC FOR SOME SNOW LATE SAT AND CONTINUE THEM INTO SUN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT COMING FROM THE NORTH. ANY
DECENT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED UP WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE.
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PCPN FOR LATE SUN THROUGH THE DAY
ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FROM SAT NIGHT. SNOW CHCS WILL
INCREASE THEN ONCE AGAIN...AND ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. THE MORE IMPORTANT THING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IT WILL HELP
TO ESTABLISH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE ERN U.S.. THE UPPER
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL BE COMING FROM NEAR SIBERIA AND THE ARCTIC AS
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR STRONG ALASKA/WRN COAST UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL REVISIT
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF OF THE LONG TERM...AND MOST LIKELY MANY
DAYS BEYOND THE CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE TAFS SITES EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE STORM TRACKS AWAY. MVFR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. VFR WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LARGE CHUNKS OF ICE WERE ON THE MOVE AROUND COMSTOCK PARK AND AN
ICE JAM WAS REPORTED UPSTREAM OF THE THORNAPPLE ENTRY ON THE GRAND
IN ADA. WATER WAS RISING BEHIND THE JAM. WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS. CLOSE MONITORING WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MIZ056-057.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
111 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN PERSISTENT MEAN TROF OVER QUEBEC AND RDG ALONG THE
W COAST. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV THAT TOPPED THE WRN RDG IS MOVING ESEWD
THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACCOMPANIED BY 12Z-24Z H3 HGT FALLS UP TO
300M IN WYOMING. THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN A FEW LTG STRIKES IN THE COMMA
HEAD OF THE ACCOMPANYING CLD SHIELD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. BAND OF ENHANCED CLD TO THE NE OF DVLPG SFC LO PRES IN
NEBRASKA EXTENDS NE INTO CNTRL MN/NW WI...CORRELATED BEST WITH AXIS
OF HIER H7-6 FGEN...BUT WELL N OF H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM SDAKOTA
THRU NRN IOWA. PCPN HAS HAD A HARD TIME DEVELOPING UNDER THE SHARPER
FGEN DUE TO RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...BUT SOME SN HAS
REACHED AS FAR NE AS HYR IN NW WI AS OF 09Z. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CLDY
OVER UPR MI...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO PCPN FALLING OVER THE CWA
DESPITE LARGER SCALE WAD AND PRESENCE OF WEAKER H85 WARM FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV TRACKING ACRS NRN LK SUP IN WNW FLOW ALF.
FEED OF LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB IS LIKELY PLAYING A
ROLE. EVEN DEEPER DRIER AIR IS PRESENT S OF GRB.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS AND NEED
FOR HEADLINES AS SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS
MOVE TO THE E.
TODAY...AS S WINDS TO THE E OF DEEPENING LO PRES IN THE PLAINS
STRENGTHEN...BAND OF SHARPER H7-6 FGEN IS FCST TO SHIFT TO THE NE
INTO UPR MI. MORE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WL COME FM UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3
JET MAX FCST TO BE MOVING NEWD THRU ONTARIO. SINCE NEGATIVE H85
DEWPT ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY AIR TO THE S WL BE IMPACTING
MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ACCOMPANYING POPS WL BE HIER OVER THE
W. BUT EVEN THERE...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING WL ARRIVE
AND SHUNT THE PCPN OFF INTO NW LK SUP AS AXIS OF FGEN SHIFTS TO THE
NW AS WELL. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DRYING. AS FAR AS
SN AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...AXIS OF H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP TO 3 G/KG
IS FCST TO BE OVER THE AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN THIS MRNG. BUT INFLUX OF
DRIER LLVL AIR IS FCST TO DIMINISH THIS VALUE THRU THE DAY.
OVERALL...SUSPECT SN AMOUNTS WL APRCH ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE FAR W
WHERE THE FGEN IS PROGGED TO BE MOST PERSISTENT AND DRYING LESS
AGGRESSIVE. NARROW...RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ RESULTING IN SN/WATER
RATIOS IN THE 10-15:1 RANGE WL NOT HELP SN TOTALS.
TNGT...SHRTWV FM THE PLAINS IS FCST TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT MOVES INTO WI BY 12Z WED. ALTHOUGH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN
THE DVPA/PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS FCST
TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...THE SHARPER FORCING AND ACCOMPANYING H4-2
DVGC ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THE DRIER
AIR IS FCST TO BE DEEPEST. OUT OF SYNC NATURE OF THE FORCING/DEEPER
MSTR IS OF CONCERN AND WL LIKELY LIMIT SN TOTALS. IN FACT...MODEL
QPF VARIES SGNFTLY ACRS THE CWA. ADVY SN IS MOST LIKELY OVER THE W
HALF WHERE MSTR IS DEEPER AND SHARPENING CYC NNE FLOW LATER TNGT
MIGHT ENHANCE SN TOTALS A BIT. SINCE THERE IS LTL INTERACTION WITH
THE ARCTIC BRANCH IN CANADA...ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WL LIMIT
QPF...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER S WITH THE SFC LO TRACK...
INDICATING THE SFC LO WL REACH NO FARTHER N THAN ABOUT MILWAUKEE BY
12Z WED. THESE TRENDS SUG THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL BE IN THE FORM OF
SN. RETAINED A MENTION OF -FZRA OVER THE SE PER THE WARMER NAM
MODEL...WHICH SHOWS ELEVATED WARM LYR CENTERED AT 3K FT THRU THE NGT
NEAR LK MI. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS MENTION OF MIXED
PCPN IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST.
AS FOR HEADLINES...OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR THE W TODAY GIVEN AXIS
OF SHARPER FGEN/LATER DRYING. EXPANDED THE ADVYS TO THE E TO COVER
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE TNGT TO REFLECT ARRIVAL OF SHARPER DYNAMICS/
HIER POPS THAT WL INFLUENCE THE AREA INTO WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SETTLING ON A SFC LOW AROUND DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY NEAR MILWAUKEE WI...TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
LK HURON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVELS BECOME NEGATIVE TILTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH ADDITIONAL INTERACTION
FROM NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVES/COLD AIR...SYSTEM IS LOOKING MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN IT DID 24 HR AGO. THIS SHOWS UP SEEING THE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST SFC LOW /GEM-NH HAS SHOWN THIS FOR MULTIPLE RUNS/.
WARM LAYER NOT VERY MUCH OF A FACTOR NOW EITHER...PERHAPS REACHING
INTO FAR SE CWA FOR A VERY BRIEF TIME LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM IS VERY APPARENT
BY LOOKING AT H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH IS NOW MAXIMIZING
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES INSTEAD OF
INTO CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. THUS...NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM
TO WORK WITH AND H7 MIXING RATIOS ONLY TOP OUT BTWN 2.25 AND 2.5G/KG
COMPARED TO THE 3.0 OR HIGHER VALUES SHOWN PREVIOUSLY. USING THE
GARCIA METHOD THIS WOULD SUGGEST UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD AND THIS ESTIMATE IS ON PAR WHEN USING AN AVERAGE OF MODEL
TOTAL QPF BTWN 00Z WED AND 00Z THURSDAY ALONG WITH SLR/S AROUND 12:1
/LIMITED LIFT OCCURRING IN THE HIGH DGZ WELL ABOVE H7/.
OVERALL SEEMS LIKE FAR WEST CWA WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS H7 FGEN THAT IMPACTS THAT AREA TODAY
MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY AS LARGER SCALE FORCING FM MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE
AREA AS SHOWN BY SWATH OF MODERATE H85-H7/H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND PERSISTENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF H3 JET OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT SNOW TIED TO FGEN AREA WOULD BE ENHANCED OVER THE NORTHWEST
CWA VCNTY OF KEWEENAW AS PRESENCE OF FS CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS THE
SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT OVER THAT AREA AS IT LIFTS NORTH THEN MOVES
EAST /RESULTING IN MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING/. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA
IT GETS TRICKY TO FIGURE HOW MUCH SNOW MAY OCCUR...ESPECICALLY OVER
THE CNTRL AS THAT AREA WOULD BE ON THE EASTERN SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF
THE FGEN OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. H7 FGEN DOES INCREASE
ACROSS CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING IMPACTS THE AREA BUT WITH THE MINIMAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WORKING INTO THE SYSTEM...QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET OUT OF
HAND. ADVY SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
HEADLINES...AFTER COORD WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES DECIDED ON AN ADVY FOR ENTIRE CWA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE STRONGER FGEN SNOW BAND REDEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS WHETHER UPGRADE TO WARNING IS NEEDED FOR ANY
PARTS OF CWA. START TIMES FOR ADVY VARY WITH FAR WEST BEGINNING
TODAY AND REST OF CWA COMING INTO THE ADVY LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RAN THE ADVY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST
AREAS...BUT DID PUSH IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST CWA WITH SNOW LINGERING ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AND ALSO WITH GUSTY NW WINDS LEADING TO BLSN CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. ECMWF/GFS INDICATE
MOISTURE THROUGH H9 WITH H9 TEMPS AROUND -10C. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL
COVER THIS POTENTIAL. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST. TEMPS MAY DIVE TOWARD ZERO
OR EVEN BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND CALM
CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BLO H9 MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR LK
SUPERIOR.
REST OF EXTENDED...GFS STILL FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO ECMWF AND
GEM-NH WITH SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS...BUT HAVE
A BIT HIGHER ALONG WISCONSIN BORDER. COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPS THROUGH.
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TIED TO THE WAVE/COLD FRONT TO HAVE SOME
SMALLER CHANCES IN FOR MAINLY NORTH HALF OF CWA. WITH H85 TEMPS
DROPPING BLO -20C ON SATURDAY AND WITH LINGERING FORCING STILL
AROUND...LIKED PREVIOUS SHIFTS LIKELY POPS FOR NW AND NCNTRL CWA ON
SATURDAY FOR POTENTIAL OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO DRY AND VERY CHILLY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...WHICH
WOULD END UP CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
A BAND OF SN THAT BROUGHT IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES THIS MRNG
WILL MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR. DRY
AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS LO PRES IN THE PLAINS MOVES TO THE E TNGT...MORE
WIDESPREAD SN WL ARRIVE AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR
AGAIN...MAINLY AT IWD AND CMX LATER TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LAST INTO
WED MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
E-SE WINDS UP 20 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE N-NE AND INCREASE
TO UP TO 25-30 KTS BY WED AS A LO PRES IN THE PLAINS MOVES TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PASSAGE OF A HI PRES RIDGE/FLATTER PRES
GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING AND BACKING WINDS TO
THE S INTO FRI. AFTER ANOTHER LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A STRONGER N-NW WIND UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL
DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ006-007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ004-005-010-011-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7
PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ012>014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN PERSISTENT MEAN TROF OVER QUEBEC AND RDG ALONG THE
W COAST. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV THAT TOPPED THE WRN RDG IS MOVING ESEWD
THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACCOMPANIED BY 12Z-24Z H3 HGT FALLS UP TO
300M IN WYOMING. THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN A FEW LTG STRIKES IN THE COMMA
HEAD OF THE ACCOMPANYING CLD SHIELD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. BAND OF ENHANCED CLD TO THE NE OF DVLPG SFC LO PRES IN
NEBRASKA EXTENDS NE INTO CNTRL MN/NW WI...CORRELATED BEST WITH AXIS
OF HIER H7-6 FGEN...BUT WELL N OF H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM SDAKOTA
THRU NRN IOWA. PCPN HAS HAD A HARD TIME DEVELOPING UNDER THE SHARPER
FGEN DUE TO RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...BUT SOME SN HAS
REACHED AS FAR NE AS HYR IN NW WI AS OF 09Z. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CLDY
OVER UPR MI...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO PCPN FALLING OVER THE CWA
DESPITE LARGER SCALE WAD AND PRESENCE OF WEAKER H85 WARM FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV TRACKING ACRS NRN LK SUP IN WNW FLOW ALF.
FEED OF LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB IS LIKELY PLAYING A
ROLE. EVEN DEEPER DRIER AIR IS PRESENT S OF GRB.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS AND NEED
FOR HEADLINES AS SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS
MOVE TO THE E.
TODAY...AS S WINDS TO THE E OF DEEPENING LO PRES IN THE PLAINS
STRENGTHEN...BAND OF SHARPER H7-6 FGEN IS FCST TO SHIFT TO THE NE
INTO UPR MI. MORE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WL COME FM UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3
JET MAX FCST TO BE MOVING NEWD THRU ONTARIO. SINCE NEGATIVE H85
DEWPT ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY AIR TO THE S WL BE IMPACTING
MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ACCOMPANYING POPS WL BE HIER OVER THE
W. BUT EVEN THERE...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING WL ARRIVE
AND SHUNT THE PCPN OFF INTO NW LK SUP AS AXIS OF FGEN SHIFTS TO THE
NW AS WELL. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DRYING. AS FAR AS
SN AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...AXIS OF H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP TO 3 G/KG
IS FCST TO BE OVER THE AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN THIS MRNG. BUT INFLUX OF
DRIER LLVL AIR IS FCST TO DIMINISH THIS VALUE THRU THE DAY.
OVERALL...SUSPECT SN AMOUNTS WL APRCH ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE FAR W
WHERE THE FGEN IS PROGGED TO BE MOST PERSISTENT AND DRYING LESS
AGGRESSIVE. NARROW...RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ RESULTING IN SN/WATER
RATIOS IN THE 10-15:1 RANGE WL NOT HELP SN TOTALS.
TNGT...SHRTWV FM THE PLAINS IS FCST TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT MOVES INTO WI BY 12Z WED. ALTHOUGH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN
THE DVPA/PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS FCST
TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...THE SHARPER FORCING AND ACCOMPANYING H4-2
DVGC ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THE DRIER
AIR IS FCST TO BE DEEPEST. OUT OF SYNC NATURE OF THE FORCING/DEEPER
MSTR IS OF CONCERN AND WL LIKELY LIMIT SN TOTALS. IN FACT...MODEL
QPF VARIES SGNFTLY ACRS THE CWA. ADVY SN IS MOST LIKELY OVER THE W
HALF WHERE MSTR IS DEEPER AND SHARPENING CYC NNE FLOW LATER TNGT
MIGHT ENHANCE SN TOTALS A BIT. SINCE THERE IS LTL INTERACTION WITH
THE ARCTIC BRANCH IN CANADA...ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WL LIMIT
QPF...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER S WITH THE SFC LO TRACK...
INDICATING THE SFC LO WL REACH NO FARTHER N THAN ABOUT MILWAUKEE BY
12Z WED. THESE TRENDS SUG THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL BE IN THE FORM OF
SN. RETAINED A MENTION OF -FZRA OVER THE SE PER THE WARMER NAM
MODEL...WHICH SHOWS ELEVATED WARM LYR CENTERED AT 3K FT THRU THE NGT
NEAR LK MI. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS MENTION OF MIXED
PCPN IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST.
AS FOR HEADLINES...OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR THE W TODAY GIVEN AXIS
OF SHARPER FGEN/LATER DRYING. EXPANDED THE ADVYS TO THE E TO COVER
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE TNGT TO REFLECT ARRIVAL OF SHARPER DYNAMICS/
HIER POPS THAT WL INFLUENCE THE AREA INTO WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SETTLING ON A SFC LOW AROUND DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY NEAR MILWAUKEE WI...TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
LK HURON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVELS BECOME NEGATIVE TILTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH ADDITIONAL INTERACTION
FROM NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVES/COLD AIR...SYSTEM IS LOOKING MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN IT DID 24 HR AGO. THIS SHOWS UP SEEING THE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST SFC LOW /GEM-NH HAS SHOWN THIS FOR MULTIPLE RUNS/.
WARM LAYER NOT VERY MUCH OF A FACTOR NOW EITHER...PERHAPS REACHING
INTO FAR SE CWA FOR A VERY BRIEF TIME LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM IS VERY APPARENT
BY LOOKING AT H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH IS NOW MAXIMIZING
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES INSTEAD OF
INTO CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. THUS...NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM
TO WORK WITH AND H7 MIXING RATIOS ONLY TOP OUT BTWN 2.25 AND 2.5G/KG
COMPARED TO THE 3.0 OR HIGHER VALUES SHOWN PREVIOUSLY. USING THE
GARCIA METHOD THIS WOULD SUGGEST UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD AND THIS ESTIMATE IS ON PAR WHEN USING AN AVERAGE OF MODEL
TOTAL QPF BTWN 00Z WED AND 00Z THURSDAY ALONG WITH SLR/S AROUND 12:1
/LIMITED LIFT OCCURRING IN THE HIGH DGZ WELL ABOVE H7/.
OVERALL SEEMS LIKE FAR WEST CWA WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS H7 FGEN THAT IMPACTS THAT AREA TODAY
MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY AS LARGER SCALE FORCING FM MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE
AREA AS SHOWN BY SWATH OF MODERATE H85-H7/H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND PERSISTENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF H3 JET OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT SNOW TIED TO FGEN AREA WOULD BE ENHANCED OVER THE NORTHWEST
CWA VCNTY OF KEWEENAW AS PRESENCE OF FS CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS THE
SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT OVER THAT AREA AS IT LIFTS NORTH THEN MOVES
EAST /RESULTING IN MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING/. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA
IT GETS TRICKY TO FIGURE HOW MUCH SNOW MAY OCCUR...ESPECICALLY OVER
THE CNTRL AS THAT AREA WOULD BE ON THE EASTERN SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF
THE FGEN OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. H7 FGEN DOES INCREASE
ACROSS CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING IMPACTS THE AREA BUT WITH THE MINIMAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WORKING INTO THE SYSTEM...QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET OUT OF
HAND. ADVY SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
HEADLINES...AFTER COORD WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES DECIDED ON AN ADVY FOR ENTIRE CWA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE STRONGER FGEN SNOW BAND REDEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS WHETHER UPGRADE TO WARNING IS NEEDED FOR ANY
PARTS OF CWA. START TIMES FOR ADVY VARY WITH FAR WEST BEGINNING
TODAY AND REST OF CWA COMING INTO THE ADVY LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RAN THE ADVY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST
AREAS...BUT DID PUSH IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST CWA WITH SNOW LINGERING ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AND ALSO WITH GUSTY NW WINDS LEADING TO BLSN CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. ECMWF/GFS INDICATE
MOISTURE THROUGH H9 WITH H9 TEMPS AROUND -10C. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL
COVER THIS POTENTIAL. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST. TEMPS MAY DIVE TOWARD ZERO
OR EVEN BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND CALM
CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BLO H9 MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR LK
SUPERIOR.
REST OF EXTENDED...GFS STILL FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO ECMWF AND
GEM-NH WITH SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS...BUT HAVE
A BIT HIGHER ALONG WISCONSIN BORDER. COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPS THROUGH.
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TIED TO THE WAVE/COLD FRONT TO HAVE SOME
SMALLER CHANCES IN FOR MAINLY NORTH HALF OF CWA. WITH H85 TEMPS
DROPPING BLO -20C ON SATURDAY AND WITH LINGERING FORCING STILL
AROUND...LIKED PREVIOUS SHIFTS LIKELY POPS FOR NW AND NCNTRL CWA ON
SATURDAY FOR POTENTIAL OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO DRY AND VERY CHILLY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...WHICH
WOULD END UP CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
A BAND OF SN WL BRING A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES
THIS MRNG. THE MOST PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS WL IMPACT IWD AND
CMX...FARTHER FM DRIER AIR ADVANCING INTO UPR MI FM THE S AND WHICH
WL IMPACT SAW BY NOON. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DRIER AIR...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR LATER THIS AFTN INTO
THIS EVNG. AS LO PRES IN THE PLAINS MOVES TO THE E TNGT...MORE
WIDESPREAD SN WL ARRIVE AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR AGAIN...MAINLY
AT IWD AND CMX. LINGERING DRY AIR CLOSER TO SAW MAY SLOW DOWN THIS
TREND THERE UNTIL AFT 12Z WED.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
E-SE WINDS UP 20 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE N-NE AND INCREASE
TO UP TO 25-30 KTS BY WED AS A LO PRES IN THE PLAINS MOVES TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PASSAGE OF A HI PRES RIDGE/FLATTER PRES
GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING AND BACKING WINDS TO
THE S INTO FRI. AFTER ANOTHER LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A STRONGER N-NW WIND UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL
DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ006-007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ004-005-010-011-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7
PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ012>014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
527 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN PERSISTENT MEAN TROF OVER QUEBEC AND RDG ALONG THE
W COAST. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV THAT TOPPED THE WRN RDG IS MOVING ESEWD
THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACCOMPANIED BY 12Z-24Z H3 HGT FALLS UP TO
300M IN WYOMING. THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN A FEW LTG STRIKES IN THE COMMA
HEAD OF THE ACCOMPANYING CLD SHIELD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. BAND OF ENHANCED CLD TO THE NE OF DVLPG SFC LO PRES IN
NEBRASKA EXTENDS NE INTO CNTRL MN/NW WI...CORRELATED BEST WITH AXIS
OF HIER H7-6 FGEN...BUT WELL N OF H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM SDAKOTA
THRU NRN IOWA. PCPN HAS HAD A HARD TIME DEVELOPING UNDER THE SHARPER
FGEN DUE TO RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...BUT SOME SN HAS
REACHED AS FAR NE AS HYR IN NW WI AS OF 09Z. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CLDY
OVER UPR MI...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO PCPN FALLING OVER THE CWA
DESPITE LARGER SCALE WAD AND PRESENCE OF WEAKER H85 WARM FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV TRACKING ACRS NRN LK SUP IN WNW FLOW ALF.
FEED OF LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB IS LIKELY PLAYING A
ROLE. EVEN DEEPER DRIER AIR IS PRESENT S OF GRB.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS AND NEED
FOR HEADLINES AS SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS
MOVE TO THE E.
TODAY...AS S WINDS TO THE E OF DEEPENING LO PRES IN THE PLAINS
STRENGTHEN...BAND OF SHARPER H7-6 FGEN IS FCST TO SHIFT TO THE NE
INTO UPR MI. MORE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WL COME FM UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3
JET MAX FCST TO BE MOVING NEWD THRU ONTARIO. SINCE NEGATIVE H85
DEWPT ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY AIR TO THE S WL BE IMPACTING
MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ACCOMPANYING POPS WL BE HIER OVER THE
W. BUT EVEN THERE...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING WL ARRIVE
AND SHUNT THE PCPN OFF INTO NW LK SUP AS AXIS OF FGEN SHIFTS TO THE
NW AS WELL. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DRYING. AS FAR AS
SN AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...AXIS OF H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP TO 3 G/KG
IS FCST TO BE OVER THE AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN THIS MRNG. BUT INFLUX OF
DRIER LLVL AIR IS FCST TO DIMINISH THIS VALUE THRU THE DAY.
OVERALL...SUSPECT SN AMOUNTS WL APRCH ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE FAR W
WHERE THE FGEN IS PROGGED TO BE MOST PERSISTENT AND DRYING LESS
AGGRESSIVE. NARROW...RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ RESULTING IN SN/WATER
RATIOS IN THE 10-15:1 RANGE WL NOT HELP SN TOTALS.
TNGT...SHRTWV FM THE PLAINS IS FCST TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT MOVES INTO WI BY 12Z WED. ALTHOUGH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN
THE DVPA/PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS FCST
TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...THE SHARPER FORCING AND ACCOMPANYING H4-2
DVGC ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THE DRIER
AIR IS FCST TO BE DEEPEST. OUT OF SYNC NATURE OF THE FORCING/DEEPER
MSTR IS OF CONCERN AND WL LIKELY LIMIT SN TOTALS. IN FACT...MODEL
QPF VARIES SGNFTLY ACRS THE CWA. ADVY SN IS MOST LIKELY OVER THE W
HALF WHERE MSTR IS DEEPER AND SHARPENING CYC NNE FLOW LATER TNGT
MIGHT ENHANCE SN TOTALS A BIT. SINCE THERE IS LTL INTERACTION WITH
THE ARCTIC BRANCH IN CANADA...ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WL LIMIT
QPF...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER S WITH THE SFC LO TRACK...
INDICATING THE SFC LO WL REACH NO FARTHER N THAN ABOUT MILWAUKEE BY
12Z WED. THESE TRENDS SUG THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL BE IN THE FORM OF
SN. RETAINED A MENTION OF -FZRA OVER THE SE PER THE WARMER NAM
MODEL...WHICH SHOWS ELEVATED WARM LYR CENTERED AT 3K FT THRU THE NGT
NEAR LK MI. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS MENTION OF MIXED
PCPN IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST.
AS FOR HEADLINES...OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR THE W TODAY GIVEN AXIS
OF SHARPER FGEN/LATER DRYING. EXPANDED THE ADVYS TO THE E TO COVER
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE TNGT TO REFLECT ARRIVAL OF SHARPER DYNAMICS/
HIER POPS THAT WL INFLUENCE THE AREA INTO WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SETTLING ON A SFC LOW AROUND DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY NEAR MILWAUKEE WI...TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
LK HURON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVELS BECOME NEGATIVE TILTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT WITHOUT MUCH ADDITIONAL INTERACTION
FROM NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVES/COLD AIR...SYSTEM IS LOOKING MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN IT DID 24 HR AGO. THIS SHOWS UP SEEING THE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST SFC LOW /GEM-NH HAS SHOWN THIS FOR MULTIPLE RUNS/.
WARM LAYER NOT VERY MUCH OF A FACTOR NOW EITHER...PERHAPS REACHING
INTO FAR SE CWA FOR A VERY BRIEF TIME LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM IS VERY APPARENT
BY LOOKING AT H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH IS NOW MAXIMIZING
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES INSTEAD OF
INTO CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. THUS...NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM
TO WORK WITH AND H7 MIXING RATIOS ONLY TOP OUT BTWN 2.25 AND 2.5G/KG
COMPARED TO THE 3.0 OR HIGHER VALUES SHOWN PREVIOUSLY. USING THE
GARCIA METHOD THIS WOULD SUGGEST UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD AND THIS ESTIMATE IS ON PAR WHEN USING AN AVERAGE OF MODEL
TOTAL QPF BTWN 00Z WED AND 00Z THURSDAY ALONG WITH SLR/S AROUND 12:1
/LIMITED LIFT OCCURRING IN THE HIGH DGZ WELL ABOVE H7/.
OVERALL SEEMS LIKE FAR WEST CWA WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS H7 FGEN THAT IMPACTS THAT AREA TODAY
MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY AS LARGER SCALE FORCING FM MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE
AREA AS SHOWN BY SWATH OF MODERATE H85-H7/H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND PERSISTENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE OF H3 JET OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT SNOW TIED TO FGEN AREA WOULD BE ENHANCED OVER THE NORTHWEST
CWA VCNTY OF KEWEENAW AS PRESENCE OF FS CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS THE
SNOW BAND WILL PIVOT OVER THAT AREA AS IT LIFTS NORTH THEN MOVES
EAST /RESULTING IN MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING/. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA
IT GETS TRICKY TO FIGURE HOW MUCH SNOW MAY OCCUR...ESPECICALLY OVER
THE CNTRL AS THAT AREA WOULD BE ON THE EASTERN SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF
THE FGEN OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. H7 FGEN DOES INCREASE
ACROSS CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING IMPACTS THE AREA BUT WITH THE MINIMAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WORKING INTO THE SYSTEM...QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET OUT OF
HAND. ADVY SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
HEADLINES...AFTER COORD WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES DECIDED ON AN ADVY FOR ENTIRE CWA. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE STRONGER FGEN SNOW BAND REDEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS WHETHER UPGRADE TO WARNING IS NEEDED FOR ANY
PARTS OF CWA. START TIMES FOR ADVY VARY WITH FAR WEST BEGINNING
TODAY AND REST OF CWA COMING INTO THE ADVY LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RAN THE ADVY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOST
AREAS...BUT DID PUSH IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST CWA WITH SNOW LINGERING ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AND ALSO WITH GUSTY NW WINDS LEADING TO BLSN CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. ECMWF/GFS INDICATE
MOISTURE THROUGH H9 WITH H9 TEMPS AROUND -10C. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL
COVER THIS POTENTIAL. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST. TEMPS MAY DIVE TOWARD ZERO
OR EVEN BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND CALM
CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BLO H9 MAY KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR LK
SUPERIOR.
REST OF EXTENDED...GFS STILL FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO ECMWF AND
GEM-NH WITH SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS...BUT HAVE
A BIT HIGHER ALONG WISCONSIN BORDER. COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPS THROUGH.
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TIED TO THE WAVE/COLD FRONT TO HAVE SOME
SMALLER CHANCES IN FOR MAINLY NORTH HALF OF CWA. WITH H85 TEMPS
DROPPING BLO -20C ON SATURDAY AND WITH LINGERING FORCING STILL
AROUND...LIKED PREVIOUS SHIFTS LIKELY POPS FOR NW AND NCNTRL CWA ON
SATURDAY FOR POTENTIAL OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO DRY AND VERY CHILLY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...WHICH
WOULD END UP CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
KIWD AND KCMX...WILL SEE GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING WHEN THE NEXT SNOW BAND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHEN SNOW BAND LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT TUE AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER SNOW BAND WILL BRING LOW MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS BY LATE TUE EVENING.
KSAW...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BRIEFLY TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE NEXT SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z.
CONDITIONS COULD AGAIN LOWER TO NEAR IFR AROUND 12Z BUT THEN IMPROVE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW BAND LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER AGAIN TOWARD IFR TUE EVENING AS ANOTHER BAND OF
SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
E-SE WINDS UP 20 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE N-NE AND INCREASE
TO UP TO 25-30 KTS BY WED AS A LO PRES IN THE PLAINS MOVES TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PASSAGE OF A HI PRES RIDGE/FLATTER PRES
GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING AND BACKING WINDS TO
THE S INTO FRI. AFTER ANOTHER LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A STRONGER N-NW WIND UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL
DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ006-007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ004-005-010-011-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7
PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ012>014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
436 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR LKS BTWN PERSISTENT MEAN TROF OVER QUEBEC AND RDG ALONG THE
W COAST. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV THAT TOPPED THE WRN RDG IS MOVING ESEWD
THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACCOMPANIED BY 12Z-24Z H3 HGT FALLS UP TO
300M IN WYOMING. THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN A FEW LTG STRIKES IN THE COMMA
HEAD OF THE ACCOMPANYING CLD SHIELD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. BAND OF ENHANCED CLD TO THE NE OF DVLPG SFC LO PRES IN
NEBRASKA EXTENDS NE INTO CNTRL MN/NW WI...CORRELATED BEST WITH AXIS
OF HIER H7-6 FGEN...BUT WELL N OF H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM SDAKOTA
THRU NRN IOWA. PCPN HAS HAD A HARD TIME DEVELOPING UNDER THE SHARPER
FGEN DUE TO RATHER DRY NATURE OF THE 00Z MPX RAOB...BUT SOME SN HAS
REACHED AS FAR NE AS HYR IN NW WI AS OF 09Z. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CLDY
OVER UPR MI...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO PCPN FALLING OVER THE CWA
DESPITE LARGER SCALE WAD AND PRESENCE OF WEAKER H85 WARM FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV TRACKING ACRS NRN LK SUP IN WNW FLOW ALF.
FEED OF LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB IS LIKELY PLAYING A
ROLE. EVEN DEEPER DRIER AIR IS PRESENT S OF GRB.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS AND NEED
FOR HEADLINES AS SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS
MOVE TO THE E.
TODAY...AS S WINDS TO THE E OF DEEPENING LO PRES IN THE PLAINS
STRENGTHEN...BAND OF SHARPER H7-6 FGEN IS FCST TO SHIFT TO THE NE
INTO UPR MI. MORE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WL COME FM UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3
JET MAX FCST TO BE MOVING NEWD THRU ONTARIO. SINCE NEGATIVE H85
DEWPT ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY AIR TO THE S WL BE IMPACTING
MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA...ACCOMPANYING POPS WL BE HIER OVER THE
W. BUT EVEN THERE...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING WL ARRIVE
AND SHUNT THE PCPN OFF INTO NW LK SUP AS AXIS OF FGEN SHIFTS TO THE
NW AS WELL. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DRYING. AS FAR AS
SN AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...AXIS OF H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY UP TO 3 G/KG
IS FCST TO BE OVER THE AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN THIS MRNG. BUT INFLUX OF
DRIER LLVL AIR IS FCST TO DIMINISH THIS VALUE THRU THE DAY.
OVERALL...SUSPECT SN AMOUNTS WL APRCH ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE FAR W
WHERE THE FGEN IS PROGGED TO BE MOST PERSISTENT AND DRYING LESS
AGGRESSIVE. NARROW...RATHER HI...NARROW DGZ RESULTING IN SN/WATER
RATIOS IN THE 10-15:1 RANGE WL NOT HELP SN TOTALS.
TNGT...SHRTWV FM THE PLAINS IS FCST TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT MOVES INTO WI BY 12Z WED. ALTHOUGH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN
THE DVPA/PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS FCST
TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...THE SHARPER FORCING AND ACCOMPANYING H4-2
DVGC ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE THE DRIER
AIR IS FCST TO BE DEEPEST. OUT OF SYNC NATURE OF THE FORCING/DEEPER
MSTR IS OF CONCERN AND WL LIKELY LIMIT SN TOTALS. IN FACT...MODEL
QPF VARIES SGNFTLY ACRS THE CWA. ADVY SN IS MOST LIKELY OVER THE W
HALF WHERE MSTR IS DEEPER AND SHARPENING CYC NNE FLOW LATER TNGT
MIGHT ENHANCE SN TOTALS A BIT. SINCE THERE IS LTL INTERACTION WITH
THE ARCTIC BRANCH IN CANADA...ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WL LIMIT
QPF...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER S WITH THE SFC LO TRACK...
INDICATING THE SFC LO WL REACH NO FARTHER N THAN ABOUT MILWAUKEE BY
12Z WED. THESE TRENDS SUG THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL BE IN THE FORM OF
SN. RETAINED A MENTION OF -FZRA OVER THE SE PER THE WARMER NAM
MODEL...WHICH SHOWS ELEVATED WARM LYR CENTERED AT 3K FT THRU THE NGT
NEAR LK MI. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS MENTION OF MIXED
PCPN IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST.
AS FOR HEADLINES...OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR THE W TODAY GIVEN AXIS
OF SHARPER FGEN/LATER DRYING. EXPANDED THE ADVYS TO THE E TO COVER
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATE TNGT TO REFLECT ARRIVAL OF SHARPER DYNAMICS/
HIER POPS THAT WL INFLUENCE THE AREA INTO WED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE 12Z RUNS HAVE BECOME MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW OVER N MO/FAR S IA AT 00Z...TO GRB-MKE BY 12Z...NEAR THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND N LOWER MI BY 18Z...AND E OF DRUMMOND ISLAND BY
00Z THURSDAY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE A BIT ON ITS OWN...SLIGHTLY W
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. WILL RELY MORE HEAVILY ON THE NON-NAM SOLUTIONS
FOR THIS PERIOD.
POCKET OF WARM AIR WILL SURGE IN NEAR LAKE MI TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MID
DAY WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. CONTINUED
THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP OVER W
UPPER MI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD MOISTURE IN THE DGZ /GENERALLY
600-700MB/ ALIGNING WITH OMEGA. WILL NEED TO WAIT ANOTHER ROUND TO
SEE IF THE W HALF WILL NEED TO BE BROUGHT UP TO WARNING
CRITERIA...OR IF MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WOULD BE BETTER
SERVED UNDER A WINTER WX ADVISORY. CONTINUED THE SPS FOR NON-WATCH
LOCATIONS. BEHIND THE LOW WE WILL HAVE STEADY NW WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTS JUST OFF SHORE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS.
EXPECT QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS THURSDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE OVER E MN
AT 12Z PUSHES ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY. OUT TO
OUR W THE NEXT LOW STRETCHED FROM THE MT/ND/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER AT
18Z THURSDAY WILL SINK SE TO S MN AND IA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THE SFC LOW STILL LOOKS TO CLIP S LAKE MI BY 00Z SATURDAY /WITH THE
17/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF EVEN FARTHER TO THE S/. WHILE THE MAIN
IMPACTS FROM THE SFC LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR S...THE 500MB PATTERN
DOES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SINKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. 850MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6C AT 0Z SATURDAY WILL QUICKLY FALL
BEHIND THE EXIT OF THE SFC LOW...WITH INCREASING N-NW BRINGING 850MB
TEMPS DOWN TO -15 TO -20C BY 8Z SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ICE
IS LEFT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...LIGHT TO MODERATE LES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOSS OF
THE DGZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN FROM THE N PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD
WEEKEND WILL BE THE RESULT...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 20S AND ON
SUNDAY IN THE TEENS FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
KIWD AND KCMX...WILL SEE GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING WHEN THE NEXT SNOW BAND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHEN SNOW BAND LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT TUE AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER SNOW BAND WILL BRING LOW MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS BY LATE TUE EVENING.
KSAW...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BRIEFLY TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE NEXT SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 12Z.
CONDITIONS COULD AGAIN LOWER TO NEAR IFR AROUND 12Z BUT THEN IMPROVE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW BAND LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER AGAIN TOWARD IFR TUE EVENING AS ANOTHER BAND OF
SNOW APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
S WINDS UP TO 25-30KT THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RESULTED UNDER SHARPENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE W IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE INTO WED...LIKELY PASSING JUST
TO THE S OF UPPER MI...THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE E AND THEN N BY
WED...WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 30 KTS ON WED. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THU AS A TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES. A STRONGER N WIND UP TO 25-30KT MAY
DEVELOP ON FRI AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE S THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ006-007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ004-005-010-011-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO
8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>003-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7
PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ012>014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
307 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
SNOW SHOWERS WERE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PER
RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS. STILL EXPECTING POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDER BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING CLOSE TO 200 J/KG OF CAPE
AND SSEO SHOWING DECENT PROBABILITIES OF STRONG RADAR ECHOES. HAVE
INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING E OF KBIL. SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM W TO E TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WERE IN GOOD SHAPE BASED ON
GUIDANCE...AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
DEGREES C.
WED WILL BE WARMER AND DRY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA.
HAVE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON EXPECTED
MIXING. PACIFIC ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. NOTED THAT LOW-LEVELS WERE FAIRLY DRY ON THE
MODELS...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE EASTWARD EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF
POPS. AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MT/CANADIAN BORDER...WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM KBIL W. PATTERN DID NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS. DID RAISE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
THU. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE SHOWED WIND SPEED
ANOMALIES AT 850 MB SO IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS THE AREA. AIRMASS
WILL MOISTEN THROUGH THE DAY SO HAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
MORNING AND CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 30S W TO THE 40S E. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WAS
FORECAST TO PUSH S THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT AND THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKED TO BE N AND E OF KBIL. WRF WAS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS IN BRINGING QPF S INTO THE AREA SO KEPT POPS AT
MAINLY CHANCE VALUES FOR NOW...WITH SOME LIKELIES IN THE EASTERN
ZONES. AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THU
NIGHT DUE TO THE MODEL QPF TIMING DIFFERENCES. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THU NIGHT. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...FAVORING A CHILLY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. BIGGEST CHANGES
WERE TO RAISE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
AND TO RAISE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NE FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND NW FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL HELP ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. THE COLD AIR REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
REMAINS. IT WILL BE CHILLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE COLD AIR APPEARS TO RETREAT TO THE EAST A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN AIR THAT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AGAIN INCREASES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. YET
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BEFORE COOLING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ROUTES INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING NEAR KBIL AND KMLS. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SW WINDS
WILL AGAIN BECOME GUSTY IN THE KLVM TO 6S0 CORRIDOR. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/050 033/043 023/032 016/035 023/043 023/037 023/035
30/B 13/W 35/J 33/J 12/J 43/J 33/J
LVM 021/044 028/038 018/029 010/034 019/043 022/034 021/043
20/N 24/W 33/J 32/J 13/J 42/J 33/J
HDN 024/049 031/044 024/033 014/035 022/043 022/039 022/038
30/B 14/W 45/J 32/J 12/J 43/J 32/J
MLS 028/050 032/045 025/032 015/032 021/041 022/037 019/035
30/B 04/W 55/J 21/E 12/J 32/J 22/J
4BQ 025/048 029/044 024/032 015/032 020/042 022/037 020/037
30/B 03/W 45/J 22/J 12/J 32/J 22/J
BHK 026/046 029/046 022/028 013/028 016/036 019/034 016/033
30/B 04/W 65/J 21/E 12/J 22/J 22/J
SHR 020/044 026/042 021/031 011/033 018/044 019/038 019/042
30/B 03/W 34/J 43/J 12/J 43/J 33/J
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
947 AM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS...
FOOTHILLS AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WAS S OF THE AREA THIS MORNING PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM LEFT A
500 MB COLD POCKET IN ITS WAKE AS WELL AS SOME TRAILING VORTICITY
OVER W MT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL
PER RADAR IMAGERY AND WEB CAMS. THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE WAS
GENERATING AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS NEAR GREAT FALLS PER
RADAR IMAGERY AT 1530Z. MODELS BROUGHT THE WAVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. INTERESTINGLY...THERE
WERE SEVERAL INDICATORS POINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST AREA. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AND THE SSEO INDICATED AN AREA OF A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR KBIL. THE GFS AND WRF SOUNDINGS
DID NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE AT ALL BUT WERE UNSTABLE. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACHING WAVE WOULD AT LEAST EXPECT
CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DID REMOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY E
THROUGH 18Z AS WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER TODAY. MODELEDPOPS
AFTER THE WRF FORECAST GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND DID MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER GIVEN THE ABOVE.
WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION TO JUST THE AFTERNOON FOR NOW AND
MONITOR IN CASE IT NEEDS TO BE ADDED FOR THE EVENING. RAISED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON MIXING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB.
WINDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
SNOW IS TRENDING DOWN THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING TAKING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH IT. STILL
HAVE UPSLOPE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEAL WITH FOR A WHILE LONGER
BUT OVERALL SEEING SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OVER CONDITIONS AT
MIDNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED ALL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
AREA...BUT HOLDING ONTO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY
AND THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS FOR A BIT LONGER. UPSLOPE WINDS INTO
THESE AREAS SHOULD KEEP MODERATE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW GOING A BIT
LONGER. ANTICIPATE BEING ABLE TO DROP THESE WARNINGS BY SUNRISE IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. ROAD CONDITIONS REMAIN DIFFICULT IN MANY
AREAS WITH A MIX OF WET AND SNOWPACKE/ICY CONDITIONS...AND AS OF 4
AM I90 WAS STILL CLOSED IN SHERIDAN COUNTY BETWEEN SHERIDAN AND
BUFFALO. MANY STRETCHES OF ROADWAY WILL BE WET IN THE VALLEYS
WITH ICY CONDITIONS ON HILLTOPS SO BE VERY CAREFUL DRIVING THIS
MORNING UNTIL ROADS WARM UP LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A
COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSHING THROUGH GENERATE SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...THOUGH MUCH
WEAKER THAN MONDAYS GUSTS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT
WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. RIDGE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TAP...BUT THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM IS ON THE DOORSTEP. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...FAVORING A COOLER AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. GREATEST
CHANGES THIS MORNING CENTERED AROUND COOLING OFF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS COME IN MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING PACIFIC COLD FRONT RUNS THROUGH THE REGION
WITH STRONG...GUSTY NW WINDS ON THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
SNOWS AND LOWER ELEVATION MIXED PRECIP REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
MODELS...WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY BE AN ISSUE IN THE WEST...BUT STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT POTENTIAL. RAISED POPS ONCE AGAIN...IN RESPONSE TO
MODEL CONSISTENCY. THIS SYSTEM USHERS A POLAR AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
THE POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH
PERSISTENT UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH
THE FLOW ARRIVES QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF THE COLD
FRONT...COMBINING WITH TROWAL TYPE FEATURE IN THE EAST. THIS ADDED
LIFT...COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C SHOULD GENERATE WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW. UPSLOPE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD ENHANCE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL
AND WEST ZONES. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
30S.
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
SHORTWAVES BRINGING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR AND ADDITIONAL
LIFT TO THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
TO LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS...BUT ONLY TO LOW 40S.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN AIR AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING WITH PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM RUN TO RUN. CURRENT PROGGS KEEP THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST...KEEPING PERSISTENT UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW...AND COLD AIR
IN THE REGION. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS ACROSS WEST AND
CENTRAL ZONES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON LOCATION AND AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE IN LATER SHIFTS. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST...INCLUDING NEAR KBHK AND KMLS. HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ROUTES
THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING NEAR KBIL. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 041 027/049 032/040 023/030 016/031 022/043 023/037
4/T 30/B 34/W 33/J 22/J 12/W 43/J
LVM 036 022/042 027/035 018/028 010/030 018/043 022/034
3/W 20/B 44/W 33/J 22/J 22/W 32/J
HDN 043 027/049 031/041 024/032 014/032 021/043 022/039
4/T 30/B 24/W 44/J 22/J 12/W 33/W
MLS 044 028/050 031/042 025/030 015/029 021/041 022/037
3/T 30/B 24/W 54/J 22/J 12/W 22/J
4BQ 043 026/047 029/041 024/031 015/030 020/042 022/037
3/T 30/B 13/W 44/J 22/J 12/W 32/W
BHK 042 026/046 028/043 022/029 013/026 018/036 019/034
2/T 30/B 14/W 55/J 22/J 12/J 22/J
SHR 037 020/044 025/039 021/031 011/030 017/044 019/038
3/T 30/B 13/W 33/J 23/J 12/W 33/J
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1100 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT PCPN TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND LAST
NIGHT HAD MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST BY 12Z THIS MORNING. HEIGHT
FALLS WERE OVER 100 METERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
NEXT AREA OF UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS SHOWN ON RADAR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND SHORT RANGE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THAT. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF AND WITH INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SNOW MELT TODAY
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT TO OUR WEST. THESE SHOULD SPREAD INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY STAYED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.
THE AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WITH STRONGEST FORCING...BUT
THIS WILL HELP BRING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. DID NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AGAIN SINCE BEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING STAYS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THOSE THURSDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THOSE
ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
COLD SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SAVE FOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
THE PATTERN OF THE WINTER WITH COLD AIR AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES
AND EAST COAST...AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS ON TAP FOR THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
SPRING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KTS
ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH THE H85 FRONT PASSING THROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC BEING A LITTLE SLOWER AND
SHIFTED MORE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...COMPARED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
PER THE GFS. FOR NOW...DO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY FOR RAIN OR SNOW. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
OTHER THAN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF FOG LATE TONIGHT...WHICH DID NOT
APPEAR A GREAT ENOUGH THREAT TO INCLUDE IN TAF FORECASTS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH 21/06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN
THIS PERIOD.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT 18 HOURS. 120 KNOT 300 MB JET STREAK OVER
NEW MEXICO AT 12Z THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUNCH EASTWARD. AREA
OF 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS (AROUND 100 METERS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AT 12Z) WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR WEST
TODAY SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING...BUT THE
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE AS IT MOVES EAST. WE WERE ALREADY STARTING
TO SEE SIGNS OF THAT WITH REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 310 PM. HIGH
RESOLUTION RAP MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER (BUT WEAKER) BAND WILL
DEVELOP FARTHER EAST WITH A NEW AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...
AND THAT APPEARS REASONABLE. IN GENERAL...SLOWED DOWN THE ENDING
OF PCPN TONIGHT AND ALSO THE DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD MAINLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT PARTS OF KNOX AND
POSSIBLY ANTELOPE COUNTY MAY SEE A BIT MORE THAN THAT BEFORE 06Z.
MEASURABLE PCPN SHOULD END IN ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT
DECREASE SOME LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S SEEMS ON
TRACK.
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT SOME
LOW POPS GOING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS
IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY AND SEEMED A BIT
OVERDONE. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ADD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT LEFT THAT PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS 45
TO 50 NORTH AND 50 TO 55 SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
LEFT THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DRY...WITH MAIN FORCING
EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY 60S THURSDAY AND MAINLY 50S FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. A LARGE COLD
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS INTO THE -8C TO -14C
RANGE SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEING
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE 12Z GFS. BRIEF RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CLIP EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WILL
INCLUDE A SMALL POP IN OUR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH -8C TO -18C 850MB
TEMPS ADVERTISED FOR NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN
AS BAND OF PCPN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING AREA OF -SN OVER MOST OF WRN NEB ON BACKSIDE OF SFC LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN ERN KS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY SLIDE
EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TWD THE
UPPER MIDWEST. PCPN AT TIMES MAY BE -RASN MIX. PCPN ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE COMING TO A CLOSE THEN SHORTLY AFT 06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
SNOW CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER
BANDS. HOWEVER IN THE HEAVY BANDS THE VISIBILITY FALLS BELOW ONE
MILE...AND AT TIMES NEAR ZERO...AND ACCUMULATION IS OCCURRING.
SNOWFALL RATES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH AN HOUR IS ABLE TO OVERCOME
THE MELTING. AS THE BANDS CONTINUE TO MIGRATE LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES ARE
LIKELY. TEMPS ARE CONTINUING TO FALL AND EXPECT THE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW TO NOW IMPACT CUSTER AND FRONTIER COUNTIES SO
EXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADV...REPLACING THE WIND ADVISORY. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES FROM NW TO
SE...ROAD CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AS THE SNOW MELTS
FROM HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND A WARM GROUND...REMEMBER IT WAS AROUND
70 YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SHOWING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNPREDICTABILITY
WITH THE STORM BEARING DOWN ON WRN AND NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL HIGHWAYS INCLUDING PARTS OF I-90/I-80 IN WYOMING NEAR
SHERIDAN...CASPER...LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE ARE CLOSED AND THE NUMBER
OF CLOSURES HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INCREASING SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE RAP13
AND 06Z NAM ARE HAMMERING SCNTL NEB WITH TROWAL AND THE RAP40 SHOWS
STRONG PETTERSON FGEN AT BOTH H850-700MB AND H700-500MB SUGGESTING
DEEP MOISTURE POOLING AND THE FORMATION OF A BARRIER JET ASSOCIATED
WITH 50KT-60KT WINDS BELOW 700MB. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP13 INDICATE
0.75 INCHES OF QPF DEVELOPING AS THIS BAND SETS UP THIS MORNING
ACROSS SCNTL NEB. THUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ECM...IT WOULD APPEAR
THE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS WY WILL TRANSLATE EAST THRU WRN AND SCNTL NEB
TODAY. A WINTER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REPLACES THE WIND ADVISORY
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT CUSTER AND FRONTIER COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S TODAY. THE SUPER
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CLUSTERS NORTH PLATTE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECM...NAM AND RAP13 WERE USED FOR THE QPF FORECAST WITH A 7 TO 1
SNOW RATIO FOR AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW CENTERED OVER LINCOLN COUNTY
NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83. THE MODELS WILL LIKELY MOVE THIS
CENTER AROUND TODAY PERHAPS FARTHER WEST OR EAST OR EVEN SOUTH
DEPENDING ON HOW THE DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER. AT 08Z THE SFC LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AT 990 MB AND IS FORECAST TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY AT AROUND 14KT. THIS SUPPORTS WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH. GIVEN THE COMPACT
NATURE OF THE STORM AND THE RELATIVELY FAST MOTION...A PERIOD OF
HARSH WINTER WEATHER SHOULD DEVELOP LASTING 4 TO 8 HOURS. THE HRRR
INDICATES VISIBILITY FALLING TO 1/2 MILE. THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE
PCPN RATES NEAR OR ABOVE 0.10 INCH PER HOUR WHICH IS MODERATE TO
PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING THE SFC
LOW SHOULD OVER NRN IL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS THIS EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH AS SKIES CLEAR AND DECOUPLING OCCURS. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW.
DUE TO CONTINUED LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS...I AM HESITANT TO INTRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS INTO
THE FORECAST. APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST SHOT FOR US TO
RECEIVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...AND HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE WISE...THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THURSDAY...AS A THERMAL
RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM THE ARCTIC...WILL
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A REINFORCING ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...THE
LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATES 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -10C
TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LONG STORY
SHORT...WINTER WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD IT/S GRIP DESPITE THE OFFICIAL
ARRIVAL OF SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT SPRING WINTER STORM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN SNOW BAND HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE VTN TERMINAL. THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL ACCOMPANY LOW
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL BE INCREASING AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z EXPECT CIGS TO
LIFT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
FURTHER SOUTH...FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...SNOW AND LOW CIGS TO BRING
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRATUS ALONG WITH
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
BY 00Z THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING WITH CIGS TO INCREASE. VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MASEK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1103 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
SNOW CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER
BANDS. HOWEVER IN THE HEAVY BANDS THE VISIBILITY FALLS BELOW ONE
MILE...AND AT TIMES NEAR ZERO...AND ACCUMULATION IS OCCURRING.
SNOWFALL RATES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH AN HOUR IS ABLE TO OVERCOME
THE MELTING. AS THE BANDS CONTINUE TO MIGRATE LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES ARE
LIKELY. TEMPS ARE CONTINUING TO FALL AND EXPECT THE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW TO NOW IMPACT CUSTER AND FRONTIER COUNTIES SO
EXPANDED THE WINTER WX ADV...REPLACING THE WIND ADVISORY. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES FROM NW TO
SE...ROAD CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AS THE SNOW MELTS
FROM HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND A WARM GROUND...REMEMBER IT WAS AROUND
70 YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SHOWING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNPREDICTABILITY
WITH THE STORM BEARING DOWN ON WRN AND NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL HIGHWAYS INCLUDING PARTS OF I-90/I-80 IN WYOMING NEAR
SHERIDAN...CASPER...LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE ARE CLOSED AND THE NUMBER
OF CLOSURES HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INCREASING SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE RAP13
AND 06Z NAM ARE HAMMERING SCNTL NEB WITH TROWAL AND THE RAP40 SHOWS
STRONG PETTERSON FGEN AT BOTH H850-700MB AND H700-500MB SUGGESTING
DEEP MOISTURE POOLING AND THE FORMATION OF A BARRIER JET ASSOCIATED
WITH 50KT-60KT WINDS BELOW 700MB. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP13 INDICATE
0.75 INCHES OF QPF DEVELOPING AS THIS BAND SETS UP THIS MORNING
ACROSS SCNTL NEB. THUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ECM...IT WOULD APPEAR
THE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS WY WILL TRANSLATE EAST THRU WRN AND SCNTL NEB
TODAY. A WINTER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REPLACES THE WIND ADVISORY
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT CUSTER AND FRONTIER COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S TODAY. THE SUPER
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CLUSTERS NORTH PLATTE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECM...NAM AND RAP13 WERE USED FOR THE QPF FORECAST WITH A 7 TO 1
SNOW RATIO FOR AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW CENTERED OVER LINCOLN COUNTY
NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83. THE MODELS WILL LIKELY MOVE THIS
CENTER AROUND TODAY PERHAPS FARTHER WEST OR EAST OR EVEN SOUTH
DEPENDING ON HOW THE DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER. AT 08Z THE SFC LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AT 990 MB AND IS FORECAST TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY AT AROUND 14KT. THIS SUPPORTS WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH. GIVEN THE COMPACT
NATURE OF THE STORM AND THE RELATIVELY FAST MOTION...A PERIOD OF
HARSH WINTER WEATHER SHOULD DEVELOP LASTING 4 TO 8 HOURS. THE HRRR
INDICATES VISIBILITY FALLING TO 1/2 MILE. THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE
PCPN RATES NEAR OR ABOVE 0.10 INCH PER HOUR WHICH IS MODERATE TO
PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING THE SFC
LOW SHOULD OVER NRN IL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS THIS EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH AS SKIES CLEAR AND DECOUPLING OCCURS. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW.
DUE TO CONTINUED LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS...I AM HESITANT TO INTRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS INTO
THE FORECAST. APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST SHOT FOR US TO
RECEIVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...AND HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE WISE...THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THURSDAY...AS A THERMAL
RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM THE ARCTIC...WILL
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A REINFORCING ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...THE
LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATES 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -10C
TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LONG STORY
SHORT...WINTER WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD IT/S GRIP DESPITE THE OFFICIAL
ARRIVAL OF SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
IFR/LIFR BECOMES WIDESPREAD AS AN AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND SNOW
MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY. THIS SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH SWRN SD AND ERN WY AND ENTERING WESTERN NEB.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOW EXITING THE FCST AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. WINDS TODAY INCREASE TO 35028G45KT AND SUBSIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE CLEARING LINE PROGRESSES
EAST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MASEK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDD
NWS HASTINGS NE
638 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
WITH THE MORNING ANALYSIS...THE NAM WAS ABOUT 3MB TOO WEAK ON THE
SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS. THE RAP SEEMED TO BE DOING A BETTER JOB.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO NORTHEAST KANSAS
WITH THE UPPER TROF SWINGING EAST. THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE TURNED
TO THE NORTHWEST WEST OF HEBRON AND YORK AND HAVE INCREASED TO 25
TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED AROUND KEARNEY AND LEXINGTON. TEMPERATURES AT
11AM CDT WERE IN THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 50 IN THE
EAST...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...WITH RAIN/RAIN AND SNOW AND SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE TEMPERATURES. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWSON/GOSPER/VALLEY/SHERMAN
COUTNIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAD A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN
IA. WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUD ADVECTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION PER IR SATELLITE.
OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MIDDLE 20S
TO THE LOWER 30S.
FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TAKING
THE LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WI BY 12Z WED. LOOKING
AT INCREASING/THICKENING MID-CLOUD TODAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING UP INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. MAIN DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW AREA ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MN. MEANWHILE...GENERAL INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER WILL
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY.
LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WI BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DYNAMIC
COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH/DEFORMATION AREA.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL TAKE
PLACE FASTER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI INTO SOUTHEAST MN SOMEWHERE IN
THE 03-05Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING 2-3 INCHES ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AND 2-2.5 IN THE ROCHESTER/DODGE CENTER/AUSTIN AREA.
APPEARS HEAVIER DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTHWEST LOWER MI BY 18Z
WED. SO...LOOKS LIKE AROUND ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI //CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTY// THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH LESS THAN A HALF INCH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SNOW TOTAL ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY APPEARS TO BE IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SO WILL GO AHEAD HOIST A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM VALID 19.03Z THROUGH 19.18Z.
OTHER FACET OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA AT THIS POINT BUT BLUSTERY NONETHELESS IN THE SUSTAINED 15-
25 MPH GUSTING 35 MPH RANGE. SINCE THE SNOW WILL BE ON THE WETTER
SIDE RATHER THAN FLUFFY VARIETY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF BLOWING
SNOW IS ANTICIPATED. LOOK FOR COOLER CONDITIONS OTHERWISE...WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 34-40 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
LOOK FOR A DRY DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS AS
THE DAY WEARS ON AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF ALBERTA CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE BECOMING
MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION FOR A CHANCE OF
SNOW...MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. POPS MAY
HAVE TO RAISED SOME CENTERED ON FRIDAY BASED ON INCREASINGLY
CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION SIGNAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK DRY BUT COLD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW INTO THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE OF ALL SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING IN THE FORM
OF SNOW INTO MONDAY. COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA. LOOK FOR HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...AND NEAR 40 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS WITH THE TAFS IS WITH WHEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL
START UP ALONG WITH WHEN IT WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
CURRENTLY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THE RULE ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ORGANIZED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL COME IN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN
WITH CEILINGS LIKELY DROPPING TO MVFR AS IT BEGINS THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS MAY DROP TO IFR/LOW END MVFR BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS POINT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR AFTER 2AM OR SO...THOUGH THERE IS A
MODEL OR TWO SAYING THAT CONDITIONS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
OCCUR EARLIER THAN THAT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT EXPECT THAT VISIBILITY WILL DROP TO IFR AS THE SNOW
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ040-041-047>049-062>064-075>077-085>087.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039-046-060-
061-072>074-082>084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ060-039-046-072.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ007-019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005-006-017-
018.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
612 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SHOWING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNPREDICTABILITY
WITH THE STORM BEARING DOWN ON WRN AND NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL HIGHWAYS INCLUDING PARTS OF I-90/I-80 IN WYOMING NEAR
SHERIDAN...CASPER...LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE ARE CLOSED AND THE NUMBER
OF CLOSURES HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INCREASING SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE RAP13
AND 06Z NAM ARE HAMMERING SCNTL NEB WITH TROWAL AND THE RAP40 SHOWS
STRONG PETTERSON FGEN AT BOTH H850-700MB AND H700-500MB SUGGESTING
DEEP MOISTURE POOLING AND THE FORMATION OF A BARRIER JET ASSOCIATED
WITH 50KT-60KT WINDS BELOW 700MB. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP13 INDICATE
0.75 INCHES OF QPF DEVELOPING AS THIS BAND SETS UP THIS MORNING
ACROSS SCNTL NEB. THUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ECM...IT WOULD APPEAR
THE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS WY WILL TRANSLATE EAST THRU WRN AND SCNTL NEB
TODAY. A WINTER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REPLACES THE WIND ADVISORY
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT CUSTER AND FRONTIER COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S TODAY. THE SUPER
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CLUSTERS NORTH PLATTE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECM...NAM AND RAP13 WERE USED FOR THE QPF FORECAST WITH A 7 TO 1
SNOW RATIO FOR AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW CENTERED OVER LINCOLN COUNTY
NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83. THE MODELS WILL LIKELY MOVE THIS
CENTER AROUND TODAY PERHAPS FARTHER WEST OR EAST OR EVEN SOUTH
DEPENDING ON HOW THE DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER. AT 08Z THE SFC LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AT 990 MB AND IS FORECAST TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY AT AROUND 14KT. THIS SUPPORTS WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH. GIVEN THE COMPACT
NATURE OF THE STORM AND THE RELATIVELY FAST MOTION...A PERIOD OF
HARSH WINTER WEATHER SHOULD DEVELOP LASTING 4 TO 8 HOURS. THE HRRR
INDICATES VISIBILITY FALLING TO 1/2 MILE. THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE
PCPN RATES NEAR OR ABOVE 0.10 INCH PER HOUR WHICH IS MODERATE TO
PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING THE SFC
LOW SHOULD OVER NRN IL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS THIS EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH AS SKIES CLEAR AND DECOUPLING OCCURS. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW.
DUE TO CONTINUED LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS...I AM HESITANT TO INTRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS INTO
THE FORECAST. APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST SHOT FOR US TO
RECEIVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...AND HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE WISE...THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THURSDAY...AS A THERMAL
RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM THE ARCTIC...WILL
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A REINFORCING ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...THE
LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATES 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -10C
TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LONG STORY
SHORT...WINTER WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD IT/S GRIP DESPITE THE OFFICIAL
ARRIVAL OF SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
IFR/LIFR BECOMES WIDESPREAD AS AN AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND SNOW
MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY. THIS SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH SWRN SD AND ERN WY AND ENTERING WESTERN NEB.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOW EXITING THE FCST AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. WINDS TODAY INCREASE TO 35028G45KT AND SUBSIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE CLEARING LINE PROGRESSES
EAST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ056>059-069-070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-035>037-094.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ038-071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE SHOWING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNPREDICTABILITY
WITH THE STORM BEARING DOWN ON WRN AND NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL HIGHWAYS INCLUDING PARTS OF I-90/I-80 IN WYOMING NEAR
SHERIDAN...CASPER...LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE ARE CLOSED AND THE NUMBER
OF CLOSURES HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INCREASING SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE RAP13
AND 06Z NAM ARE HAMMERING SCNTL NEB WITH TROWAL AND THE RAP40 SHOWS
STRONG PETTERSON FGEN AT BOTH H850-700MB AND H700-500MB SUGGESTING
DEEP MOISTURE POOLING AND THE FORMATION OF A BARRIER JET ASSOCIATED
WITH 50KT-60KT WINDS BELOW 700MB. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP13 INDICATE
0.75 INCHES OF QPF DEVELOPING AS THIS BAND SETS UP THIS MORNING
ACROSS SCNTL NEB. THUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ECM...IT WOULD APPEAR
THE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS WY WILL TRANSLATE EAST THRU WRN AND SCNTL NEB
TODAY. A WINTER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REPLACES THE WIND ADVISORY
IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT CUSTER AND FRONTIER COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S TODAY. THE SUPER
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CLUSTERS NORTH PLATTE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECM...NAM AND RAP13 WERE USED FOR THE QPF FORECAST WITH A 7 TO 1
SNOW RATIO FOR AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW CENTERED OVER LINCOLN COUNTY
NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG HIGHWAY 83. THE MODELS WILL LIKELY MOVE THIS
CENTER AROUND TODAY PERHAPS FARTHER WEST OR EAST OR EVEN SOUTH
DEPENDING ON HOW THE DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER. AT 08Z THE SFC LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AT 990 MB AND IS FORECAST TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY AT AROUND 14KT. THIS SUPPORTS WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH. GIVEN THE COMPACT
NATURE OF THE STORM AND THE RELATIVELY FAST MOTION...A PERIOD OF
HARSH WINTER WEATHER SHOULD DEVELOP LASTING 4 TO 8 HOURS. THE HRRR
INDICATES VISIBILITY FALLING TO 1/2 MILE. THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE
PCPN RATES NEAR OR ABOVE 0.10 INCH PER HOUR WHICH IS MODERATE TO
PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING THE SFC
LOW SHOULD OVER NRN IL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS THIS EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH AS SKIES CLEAR AND DECOUPLING OCCURS. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW.
DUE TO CONTINUED LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS...I AM HESITANT TO INTRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS INTO
THE FORECAST. APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEST SHOT FOR US TO
RECEIVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...AND HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE WISE...THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THURSDAY...AS A THERMAL
RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE...ORIGINATING FROM THE ARCTIC...WILL
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A REINFORCING ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...THE
LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATES 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -10C
TO -15C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LONG STORY
SHORT...WINTER WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD IT/S GRIP DESPITE THE OFFICIAL
ARRIVAL OF SPRING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
AS A STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...A FRONT
WILL PLUNGE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW. IN THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...VISIBILITY OF 1-3SM IS LIKELY ALONG WITH
CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AGL. VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE VISUAL THRESHOLDS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...
BUT CEILING BELOW 1000 FEET AGL IS LIKELY UNTIL 22Z. IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...VISIBILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 3SM AROUND 21Z AND CEILING
ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL BY 00Z. THE 1000-2000 FT CEILING IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UNTIL AFTER 03Z.
WIND 330-360 WILL INCREASE TO 20-25G30-36KT BY 13Z AND DECREASE TO
15-20G25-30 BY 02Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ056>059-069-070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-035>037-094.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ038-071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
132 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH
THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WAVE OVER MONTANA AND RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE 989MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF WYOMING.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
A NEW FORECAST IS OUT USING THE RAP...SREF AND THE ENSEMBLE
APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION AND THE PTYPE. CONSHORT
AND THE 13 MODEL ENSEMBLE IS UNIVERSAL SHOWING TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S TODAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AS A BAND OF STRONGLY
FORCED PCPN DEVELOPS THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST WHICH
PROPAGATES EAST DURING THE DAY AND EXITS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE PETERSEN FGEN IN THE RAP40 IS VERY STRONG AT
850-700MB AND 700-500MB WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DEEP SATURATION IN THE
AREA OF MODERATE PCPN THAT IS BELIEVED WILL FORM SHORTLY ACROSS
SHERIDAN COUNTY. WET RATES NEAR 0.10 INCHES ARE SHOWN IN THE RAP.
THE SNOW FORECAST IS MODEST USING AN 8 TO 1 RATIO. YESTERDAYS
HIGHS IN 70S WILL BE REPLACED BY WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S AND NOTE THAT 12 OF THE 13 MODELS AVAILABLE FOR QPF
SHOW OVER 0.15 INCHES OF LIQUID AT KLBF SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT
RAIN AND SNOW WILL FALL FOR DEFINITE POPS BUT THE OVERALL LIQUID
TOTAL WOULD LIKELY BE AROUND 1/4 INCH OR LESS. THIS PRODUCED SNOW
TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NRN NEB.
THE NEW FORECAST BEEFS UP WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH. THIS IS
CLOSE TO THE NAMDNG5...GRIDDED MOS AND THE RAP MODELS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE LATEST SHORT TERM PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT PHASE CHANGE TO
SNOW MAY OCCUR EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE
WARM SURFACES...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE ACTUAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION AS MUCH WILL PROBABLY BE LOST TO MELTING. THE
FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL INTENSIFY IN THE PROCESS. THE UPPER LOW IS
BEING MODELED TO BE OVER EASTERN WYOMING AT 06Z TONIGHT...NORTHWEST
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT 18Z...AND TO NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AT 00Z. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...IT WILL
PUSH A POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...WITH IT PASSING
ALL AREAS BY 15Z TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE MODELS ARE BRINGING INTO
THE REGION...AND WITH AMPLE LIFT WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WITH THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY BEING EXTREMELY DRY...IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET THE COLUMN SATURATED SO BACKED OFF ON THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ONSET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AFTER 03Z...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AFTER 06Z. THE BETTER
LIFT/MOISTURE/AND AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AS WILL THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHICH WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TUESDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS
RAIN. BUT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY COOL THE COLUMN AND
LOOKING AT THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE PROFILE...EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF
RAIN...PERHAPS AN HOUR OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN A QUICK CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW. BY AFTERNOON TUESDAY...WHERE THE MORE INTENSE SNOW HAS COME
TO AN END...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE SNOW
BACK TO RAIN. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH...DESPITE
LIQUID AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH. EVEN IF 4 INCHES OF SNOW WOULD
FALL...WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WOULD KEEP MUCH FROM ACCUMULATING.
THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM OSHKOSH TO TRYON TO BARTLETT.
WINDS WILL BE QUITE INTENSE BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT. 3 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 8 MB
ARE BEING SHOWN BY THE MODELS SO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO...WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE BEING
VERY STRONG /3K FT WINDS OF 65KTS/...ANY MIXING WILL LEAD TO INTENSE
WINDS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE AT HIGH END ADVISORY
LEVEL SO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WINDS WILL BE JUST AS STRONG FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH MORE SNOW EXPECTED IN THOSE
LOCATIONS...FELT THERE MAY BE SOME TRAVEL HAZARDS DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW SO IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
MODELS IN THE MID AND LONG TERM HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AT
H5 AND H7 AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AT 850MB. TIMING IS GOOD
AND HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS THAN YESTERDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL TAKE A LOOK LATE TO DECIDE TO INCLUDE WEATHER OVER NORTH
CENTRAL. SYSTEM BECOMES MORE STACKED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SLOWS
DOWN CONSIDERABLY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH -3C AT 850MB AND
CLEARING SKIES WITH SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS AND LOW 20S TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND UPPER 20S NORTH
CENTRAL...ONEILL VICINITY. DOWN SLOPE FLOW AND THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE SKEWED BY SNOW FIELD. COOLER 40S NORTH AND 50S
SOUTH. RIDGE CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S THURSDAY WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S SATURDAY AND REBOUNDING THROUGH THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND NOT
WIDESPREAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
AS A STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...A FRONT
WILL PLUNGE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW. IN THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...VISIBILITY OF 1-3SM IS LIKELY ALONG WITH
CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AGL. VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE VISUAL THRESHOLDS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...
BUT CEILING BELOW 1000 FEET AGL IS LIKELY UNTIL 22Z. IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...VISIBILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 3SM AROUND 21Z AND CEILING
ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL BY 00Z. THE 1000-2000 FT CEILING IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UNTIL AFTER 03Z.
WIND 330-360 WILL INCREASE TO 20-25G30-36KT BY 13Z AND DECREASE TO
15-20G25-30 BY 02Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED TO 20 PERCENT OR HIGHER MOST AREAS
IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE WIND HAS DECREASED
TO LESS THAN 20 MPH. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT
/8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ038-056>059-069>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-035>037-094.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS/JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
254 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY, AS A
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1210 AM UPDATE...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTNDS FM HUDSON BAY SEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST, LEAVING CWA ON WRN PERIPHERY OF HIPRES. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN ESE WINDS AT THE SFC WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC FM THE S-SW.
PER CCX VAD WIND PROFILE WINDS BLO 8KFT ARE FM THE SSW WITH KBGM
BEGINNING TO SHOW THE SAME WITHIN THE LAST HR. EXPECT THIS WL HELP
PUSH THE LOW CLDS NORTH INTO WRN AND SRN SXNS OF CWA WITHIN THE
NEXT 2-3 HRS PER LATEST RUC H8 RH VALUES. THUS, HV UPDATED GRIDS
TO GO PCLDY AND POSSIBLY MCLDY IN CERTAIN SPOTS OF SWRN CWA BY 06Z
WITH MOCLR ELSEWHERE. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME,
AS T/TD VALUES RIGHT ON TRACK.
PREV DISCOS BLO...
8 PM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO JUST
SOME MINOR TEMP/DEW PT GRID TWEAKS ARE REQUIRED ATTM.
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NRN EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD SHIELD
ACRS PA HAS HELD STEADY THE LAST 3-6 HRS. NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AS A STG SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SWD FROM
NEW ENG ALG THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT...THIS CLOUD MASS WILL BE
HELD AT BAY OVER CNTRL/SRN PA. IN THE MEANTIME...PATCHY AND
RELATIVELY THIN MID AND UPR-LVL CLOUD DEBRIS ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST
MAY TRANSLATE EWD OVERNIGHT INTO TUE...PERHAPS RESULTING IN PDS OF
PTLY CLDY CONDS OVER OUR NRN ZNS. ELSEWHERE ACRS CNY/NE PA...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER SOME OF OUR
NORMALLY COLDER SXNS IN THE CATSKILLS...SRN TUG HILL...AND NRN
FINGER LKS RGNS...TO MOSTLY TEENS ELSEWHERE.
120 PM EDT UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA AND STRUGGLE TO REBOUND INTO
THE 20S/30S AS VERY COLD CANADIAN AIR HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA DESPITE ABUNDANCE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. DEW POINTS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ARE STILL BELOW ZERO AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT TODAY... THUS TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
TUESDAY MORNING AN UPR LEVEL LOW WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE
ROCKIES INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS. THE SFC LOW WILL THEN PROPAGATE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SFC LOW
WILL THEN BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UP PR LOW
WILL THEN BECOME STACKED AND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE ATTENDANT
LOW WILL BECOME OCCLUDED.
THE SFC LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
STATE OF NY. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM KEEPS
SLOWING DOWN... WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... TEMPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ON WED SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE ENOUGH THAT
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING SHOULD BE RAIN. ALSO...
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL.
HIGHS TUES/WED WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S
WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. COLD AND UNSETTLED. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WHICH
DID NOT DIFFER MUCH FROM YESTERDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS
OF THE 2 STORMS FOR THIS PERIOD. EURO WEAKER AND CROSSES PA SAT
GIVING MIX SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. THE GFS IS STRONGER BUT IN CANADA
SO RAIN TO SNOW. MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON SATURDAY. SAT NGT AND SUN
BOTH HAVE THE CAA AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF. TUESDAY A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH
THE GFS WARMER AND FURTHER NORTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. OVERALL A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA/EASTERN UNITED
STATES.
EXTENDED BEGINS UNDER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO
BRIEF SFC RIDGING.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE MID WEST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN
AIR WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH FAIRLY DRY BUT COLD TEMPERATURES
AS READINGS RUN ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED CLOUDS FIRST AT
HIGH LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN LOW END OF VFR THIS AFTN.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING. IF ANY DIRECTION EAST.
DURING THE DAY WINDS SHIFT TO SE AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
WED/THU...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN -SHRA/-SHSN.
THUR NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN, MAINLY ACROSS NY
TERMINALS.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH/TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ/PVN
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1212 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1210 AM UPDATE...
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTNDS FM HUDSON BAY SEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST, LEAVING CWA ON WRN PERIPHERY OF HIPRES. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN ESE WINDS AT THE SFC WITH WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC FM THE S-SW.
PER CCX VAD WIND PROFILE WINDS BLO 8KFT ARE FM THE SSW WITH KBGM
BEGINNING TO SHOW THE SAME WITHIN THE LAST HR. EXPECT THIS WL HELP
PUSH THE LOW CLDS NORTH INTO WRN AND SRN SXNS OF CWA WITHIN THE
NEXT 2-3 HRS PER LATEST RUC H8 RH VALUES. THUS, HV UPDATED GRIDS
TO GO PCLDY AND POSSIBLY MCLDY IN CERTAIN SPOTS OF SWRN CWA BY 06Z
WITH MOCLR ELSEWHERE. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME,
AS T/TD VALUES RIGHT ON TRACK.
PREV DISCOS BLO...
8 PM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...SO JUST
SOME MINOR TEMP/DEW PT GRID TWEAKS ARE REQUIRED ATTM.
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NRN EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD SHIELD
ACRS PA HAS HELD STEADY THE LAST 3-6 HRS. NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AS A STG SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SWD FROM
NEW ENG ALG THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT...THIS CLOUD MASS WILL BE
HELD AT BAY OVER CNTRL/SRN PA. IN THE MEANTIME...PATCHY AND
RELATIVELY THIN MID AND UPR-LVL CLOUD DEBRIS ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST
MAY TRANSLATE EWD OVERNIGHT INTO TUE...PERHAPS RESULTING IN PDS OF
PTLY CLDY CONDS OVER OUR NRN ZNS. ELSEWHERE ACRS CNY/NE PA...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER SOME OF OUR
NORMALLY COLDER SXNS IN THE CATSKILLS...SRN TUG HILL...AND NRN
FINGER LKS RGNS...TO MOSTLY TEENS ELSEWHERE.
120 PM EDT UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA AND STRUGGLE TO REBOUND INTO
THE 20S/30S AS VERY COLD CANADIAN AIR HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA DESPITE ABUNDANCE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. DEW POINTS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ARE STILL BELOW ZERO AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT TODAY... THUS TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
TUESDAY MORNING AN UPR LEVEL LOW WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE
ROCKIES INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS. THE SFC LOW WILL THEN PROPAGATE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SFC LOW
WILL THEN BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UP PR LOW
WILL THEN BECOME STACKED AND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE ATTENDANT
LOW WILL BECOME OCCLUDED.
THE SFC LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
STATE OF NY. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM KEEPS SLOWING
DOWN... WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN... TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ON WED SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE ENOUGH THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING SHOULD BE RAIN. ALSO... PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL.
HIGHS TUES/WED WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S
WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. OVERALL A CONTINUATION OF COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA/EASTERN UNITED
STATES.
EXTENDED BEGINS UNDER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO
BRIEF SFC RIDGING.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE MID WEST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN
AIR WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH FAIRLY DRY BUT COLD TEMPERATURES
AS READINGS RUN ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST CNY TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH AT
AVP...SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CENTERED AROUND 9 KFT WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 5 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED/THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-SHSN.
THUR NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT -SHRA/-SHSN, MAINLY
ACROSS NY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ/PVN
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM WED...A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN NC THIS EVENING WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW A MODEST LOW LEVEL INVERSION. SFC CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
TROUGH IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE OBX WITH
MAINLY LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE CWA. COVERAGE
ON RADAR HAS BEEN WANING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE TROUGH
SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENN
VALLEYS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS AN 850MB TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH 850MB CAA WEAKENING THE INVERSION
ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS TO FINALLY DISSIPATE. MODELS
HAVE SO FAR BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE ERODING THE INVERSION AND EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RUC MODEL
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THE TRENDS THE BEST WHICH DOES SHOW
CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT. NEAR SURFACE
CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED HOWEVER SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH TO BRING
ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE
FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BRINGING STRONGER SFC CAA AND LOW LEVEL
DRYING. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE RETURN OF THE SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AND CLEARING SKIES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z RUNS
OF ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW AFFECTING AREA NEXT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT LEADING
TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR PSBL WINTER WX THREAT THAT
PERIOD.
IN WAKE OF SHRT WV TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSAGE...MARITIME HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN THU NIGHT WITH MID TO UPR
30S INLAND...BUT THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. EVEN WARMER FOR SAT WITH W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONT...HIGHS APPROACHING MID 70S INLAND.
SERIES OF SHRT WVS WILL PUSH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT THROGH AREA LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. INITIAL FRONTAL INTRUSION LOOKS DRY WITH LIMITED
MSTR AND LIFT...BUT KEPT 20 POPS WITH A FEW MODELS INDICATING SOME
LIGHT QPF SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN WILL BE IN WAKE OF FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH SECONDARY SHRT WV AND
WEAK OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING AS LOW LV WINDS BECOME NE...AND
INCREASED POPS TO 30% DURING THE DAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SE COAST MON NIGHT AND MOVING NE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. ECMWF IS STRONGER AND CLOSER TO COAST WHICH WOULD INDICATE
STRONG NOR`EASTER TYPE CONDITIONS FOR ERN NC INTO TUE NIGHT...WHILE
GFS WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE. BOTH INDICATE PCPN POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVER AREA LATE MON NIGHT WITH COLD AIR MASS STILL IN
PLACE...AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT PSBL WINTRY MIX AS PCPN
BEGINS WITH CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN IN AFTN AS THICKNESSES WARM. WILL
HANDLE WITH SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE MON NIGHT...INCREASING
TO CHC TUE MORNING...THEN CHC RAIN TUE AFTN. FOLLOWED HPC AND GFS
BLEND FOR NOW WITH NO PCPN FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED...BUT ECMWF WOULD
SUPPORT A LINGERING THREAT AND PSBL CHANGE BACK TO FROZEN PCPN WITH
TRACK MORE ALONG COAST.
MAX TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN MAINLY BELOW
50 FOR MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 9 PM WED...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS RTES THIS
EVENING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE ERODING THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT 850MB FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFT TO W AND
INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 850MB CAA WILL ALLOW THE INVERSION TO
ERODE FROM ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING STATUS TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THE TRENDS THE
BEST. HOWEVER...WITH NEAR SATURATED SFC CONDITIONS...ANY CLEARING
WILL BRING IMPROVED RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...SO THE THREAT FOR CONDITIONS AOB IFR
PERSISTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AROUND DAYBREAK WITH W/NW FLOW BRINGING CAA AND DRYING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 12Z. W/NW WINDS AROUND 10-15
KT EXPECTED THURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SUB VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR RETURNING FOR
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING IN AGAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 9 PM WED...A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO BISECT THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH LIGHT SE FLOW TO THE EAST AND LIGHT SW FLOW TO THE
WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT WITH SW TO WLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENN VALLEYS.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE
A 7-10 FT MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL PERSISTS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS ARE
SUBSIDING A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREDICTED BY THE MODELS WITH 40136
NOW DOWN TO 4 FT AND HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
WILL KEEP SCA FROM OCRACOKE TO LOOKOUT AS WRAP AROUND SWELL LIKELY
KEEPING ELEVATED SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THIS ZONE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THURS MORNING WITH WINDS
BECOMING NW AROUND 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS AROUND 4-7 FT
NORTH AND 2-5 FT SOUTH CONTINUE THURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AT
OR ABOVE 6 FT WILL LINGER INTO THU EVENING FOR NRN WATERS AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO NRLY 15-20 KT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT WILL CONTINUE WITH CAA SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FT BRIEFLY FRI INTO EARLY
SAT...THEN BUILD AGAIN TO 5-7 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 PM WED...EXTENDED HIGH SURF UNTIL 1 AM WITH BREAKING WAVES
STILL NORTH OF HATTERAS 8-10FT. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET
CONTINUE WITH WAVE RUNUP AND MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. THERE
COULD EVEN BE SOME MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH IN MORE VULNERABLE AREAS
ALONG HWY 12. WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND
10PM.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/SK/BM
MARINE...JME/SK/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
619 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LATE
WINTER STORM SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM TUESDAY...FINAL PATCHES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE FADING AS
THE MOVE SW ACROSS OUR NC COUNTIES. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MOST
PLACES WILL STAY DRY. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE FEAR.
WHAT THIS HAS DONE IS SCOUR OUT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND NOW ONLY THE
MOISTURE SEEN ON RAP TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT MAINLY BELOW 800 MB.
THE SYNOPTIC SETTING AT THE SURFACE SHOWS COLD AIR DAMMING AND
THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH NO FORCING ALOFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXPECT
STRATUS CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. CURRENT SATELLITE IS SHOWING A BREAK
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST BUT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE WEAKENS EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL
IN OVERNIGHT.
WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN LEAN TOWARD A COOLER SOLUTION AS SEEN IN THE
MET MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH MAY BE A BIT TO COLD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 30S BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND A NORTH
WIND THE EXPECTATION OF FROST IS NOT HIGH FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WESTERLY WIND FLOW IN A PARCHED AIR-MASS
PERCHED ABOVE 8000 FEET WILL COVER THE AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PATCHY -RA/-DZ MAY LINGER OVER OUR FAR NE ZONES VERY
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 12Z/8AM...AS A STORM SYSTEM CIRCULATION
THROWS MOISTURE OVER-TOP AN ERODING HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE. RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WNW MAY
ALSO AID IN LIGHT PCPN AROUND THIS TIME.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY INCREASE
IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY UP THROUGH 800 MB BUT THIS LOOKS INADEQUATE
TO GENERATE ANY PCPN SO NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES ARE PLANNED. NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AND IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...MAINLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE WED/EARLY THU EXPECTED.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE A STRUGGLE EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
WEAKENING WEDGE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON NE TRAJECTORIES...AND
AGAIN VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY WE MAY BE GREETED WITH CLOUDS. BREAKS
AND PERIODS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HOWEVER SHOULD PERIODICALLY
PREVAIL...THIS MOST FAVORABLE THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM SW FLOW WILL RETURN AT THE SFC
WHILE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESIDES...MAKING FOR OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL AID IN THE FORWARD PUSHING
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS. AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ALOFT WITH WESTERLY
WINDS...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ONLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
THAT INFILTRATED INTO THE AREA BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THE SYSTEM.
INTO SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE AND QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. THOUGH WILL NOTE MUCH
COOLER AIR INFILTRATES IN...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
STALLED SYSTEM OFFSHORE SLOWLY RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH ABUNDANT WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOOK FOR IFR
CEILINGS TO BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RISE TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE OR HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD GO
RIGHT BACK DOWN NEAR SUNSET. LIKEWISE THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR DRIZZLE...MAINLY AT ILM. NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY SCATTERING BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
LATEST OBS SHOWING GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KTS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IS NOW
LOCATED AROUND 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. WITH THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS ARE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND ARE BLOWING AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING AT 7.5 FEET AT FRYING PAN
SHOALS AND 4.5 FEET AT BUOY 41110 OFF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE LOW EXITING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE CAROLINAS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES OVERNIGHT...THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE. SO AT THE TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND NORTH
OF LITTLE RIVER INLET THROUGH 6 AM.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL AN IMPROVED MARINE FORECAST AS WINDS
FALL OFF IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE. N WINDS
EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL EASE AND BECOME WSW LATER IN THE DAY AS LOWER
PRESSURE TO THE NE PULLS AWAY...AND ALLOWS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO LOOSEN CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL GO NW-N THURSDAY AFTN
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODERATE NE WIND SHOULD
BE EXPECTED DAYBREAK FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD OF
THE COASTAL WATERS MIDDAY FRIDAY. SEAS SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE NE
WAVE ENERGY ON THE WANE WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SMALLER BUT A
MYRIAD OF S-SE MINOR WAVE TRAINS OF DIFFERING WAVE PERIODS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS SEAS WILL BUILD TO
2-4 FT...WITH SOME POSSIBLE 5FOOTERS IN THE OUTER WATERS OF AMZ-252
AND 250...AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS AND DECENT SWELL
ENERGY IS TAPPED INTO ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS QUIET BACK DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH SEAS ON SUNDAY MAINLY 2-3 FT AND
MAINLY NORTH WINDS 10-14 KTS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DRH/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...DL/DRH
MARINE...MJC/SGL/DRH/REK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
531 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 PM TUE...QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADV FOR
OBX DARE AND HYDE COUNTY AS HAVE GOTTEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF
SOUNDSIDE FLOODING ON HATTERAS ISLAND. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING
40-45 KT FROM THE N MOST OF THE WATERS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
THESE STRONG WINDS DIMINISHING AROUND MID EVENING AND RUC 3 HRLY
PRES RISES DIMINISH QUITE RAPIDLY AS LOW OFFSHORE MIGRATES
EASTWARD. HAVE GALES AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ENDING AT 11 PM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 245 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS 1002MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NC/SC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST AIDING IN SFC
CYCLOGENESIS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...AND
TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT RAIN/AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST INTO THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH FOR THE OUTER
BANKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TRICKY FOR WED...AS
INSITU DAMMING/WEDGE CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS HELPING TO SCOUR OUT LOW CLOUDS. WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S/LOWER 60S. STILL EXPECT
PATCHY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED
MORNING...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BUILDING
HEIGHTS AND RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMING AND RELATIVELY
DRY PERIOD FOR THU-SAT...THEN UPPER TROFFING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
COLDER AND POSSIBLY WET PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHRT WV WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS WEAK AND CONTINUED WITH JUST 20% POPS FOR
NOW. MAIN EFFECT FROM COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE TO SCOUR OUT
WEDGE AIR MASS...REPLACED BY MARITIME HIGH PRES FROM W FOR THU AND
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHFT WV WILL PUSH IN ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY. MSTR WILL BE LIMITED WITH GULF INFLOW CUT OFF ALOFT
AND HAVE KEPT POPS AT JUST 20%.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE
SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG STALLED BNDRY TO S OF AREA NEXT WEEK BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING WITH GFS ABOUT 12-24 HOURS FASTER. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN WINTER WX THREAT WITH COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER ERN
NC...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER. LOW CONDIFIDENCE FCST AT THIS
TIME AND HAVE LEANED TO HPC MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME AND JUST
INDICATING 30% POPS FOR RAIN ON TUE.
LEANED TO PREVIOUS FCST AND EURO MOS FOR MAX TEMPS THU AND FRI WITH
UPR 60S INLAND AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS. SAT LOOKS LIKE WARMEST DAY
WITH PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW AND HIGHS IN LOWER 70S INLAND. MUCH COLDER
FOR REST OF PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 SUNDAY...AND ONLY AROUND 50
MON AND TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A FEW BRIEF MOMENTS OF LOW MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. MOS
GUIDANCE/FORECAST SOUNDING HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING IFR WITHIN THE SHORT TERM. LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
AND STRONG INVERSION...CEILING CONDITIONS CAN LOWER TO LIFR FOR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE...BUT WILL REMAIN IFR FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE TIMING OF MVFR AS THE STRONG INVERSION
WILL REMAIN THROUGH TOMORROW MOST OF THE MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE WED EVENING
BUT EXPECTED TO LIFT AS COLD FRONT MOVERS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM TUE...UPGRADED ALL WATERS TO GALES AS CURRENT OBS
GUSTING 35-45 KT ALL WATERS. 3 HRLY PRES RISES MAXIMIZED THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WHEREAFTER WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUITE RAPIDLY AS
LOW PULLS AWAY AND FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
AS OF 245 PM TUE...GUSTY N/NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE AND STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CURRENT OBS SHOW N
WINDS 20-30KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35KT...AND SEAS 10-15FT NORTH AND
7-10FT SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NC/SC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS PEAKING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE
TONIGHT. N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY WED...VEERING AND BECOMING SE
IN THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. ELEVATED SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR
SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY SOUTHERN WATERS, AND THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO
15 KT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SATURDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO NRLY 15-20 KT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FT BRIEFLY FRI INTO EARLY
SAT...THEN BUILD AGAIN TO 5-7 FT FOR OUTER PORTIONS SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 515 PM TUE...ISSUED SHORT DURATION COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR SOUND SIDE DARE/HYDE COUNTIES ON THE OBX AS SEVERAL REPORTS OF
FLOODING ON HATTERAS ISLAND. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING ABOVE 40 KT
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY
LATER THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS AS LONG DURATION OF STRONG N/NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FEET EXPECTED WITH WAVE RUNUP
AND MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME MINOR
OCEAN OVERWASH IN MORE VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG HWY 12 DURING THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...ALTHOUGH A CALL TO DARE CO 911 THIS AFTERNOON
INDICATED NO ISSUES AS OF YET ALONG THE NRN OBX OCEANFRONT. MINOR
WATER RISES OF A FOOT OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PAMLICO SOUND AS WELL.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103-
104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-135-150-
152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/CQD/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SK/CQD/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A
LATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE FEAR. WHAT THIS HAS DONE IS SCOUR OUT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND
NOW ONLY THE MOISTURE SEEN ON RAP TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT MAINLY BELOW 800 MB.
THE SYNOPTIC SETTING AT THE SURFACE SHOWS COLD AIR DAMMING AND
THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH NO FORCING ALOFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXPECT
STRATUS CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. CURRENT SATELLITE IS SHOWING A BREAK
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST BUT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE WEAKENS EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL
IN OVERNIGHT.
WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN LEAN TOWARD A COOLER SOLUTION AS SEEN IN THE
MET MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH MAY BE A BIT TO COLD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 30S BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND A NORTH
WIND THE EXPECTATION OF FROST IS NOT HIGH FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WESTERLY WIND FLOW IN A PARCHED AIR-MASS
PERCHED ABOVE 8000 FEET WILL COVER THE AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PATCHY -RA/-DZ MAY LINGER OVER OUR FAR NE ZONES VERY
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 12Z/8AM...AS A STORM SYSTEM CIRCULATION
THROWS MOISTURE OVER-TOP AN ERODING HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE. RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WNW MAY
ALSO AID IN LIGHT PCPN AROUND THIS TIME.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY INCREASE
IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY UP THROUGH 800 MB BUT THIS LOOKS INADEQUATE
TO GENERATE ANY PCPN SO NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES ARE PLANNED. NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AND IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...MAINLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE WED/EARLY THU EXPECTED.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE A STRUGGLE EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
WEAKENING WEDGE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON NE TRAJECTORIES...AND
AGAIN VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY WE MAY BE GREETED WITH CLOUDS. BREAKS
AND PERIODS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HOWEVER SHOULD PERIODICALLY
PREVAIL...THIS MOST FAVORABLE THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM SW FLOW WILL RETURN AT THE SFC
WHILE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESIDES...MAKING FOR OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL AID IN THE FORWARD PUSHING
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS. AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ALOFT WITH WESTERLY
WINDS...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ONLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
THAT INFILTRATED INTO THE AREA BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THE SYSTEM.
INTO SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE AND QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. THOUGH WILL NOTE MUCH
COOLER AIR INFILTRATES IN...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
STALLED SYSTEM OFFSHORE SLOWLY RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO TRACK UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH ABUNDANT WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOOK FOR IFR
CEILINGS TO BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RISE TO MVFR AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE OR HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD GO
RIGHT BACK DOWN NEAR SUNSET. LIKEWISE THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR DRIZZLE...MAINLY AT ILM. NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY SCATTERING BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT IS NOW LOCATED AROUND 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. WITH
THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS ARE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND ARE BLOWING AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING AT 7.5 FEET AT FRYING PAN SHOALS AND
4.5 FEET AT BUOY 41110 OFF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE LOW EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE CAROLINAS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE. SO AT THE TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET
THROUGH 6 AM.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL AN IMPROVED MARINE FORECAST AS WINDS
FALL OFF IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE. N WINDS
EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL EASE AND BECOME WSW LATER IN THE DAY AS LOWER
PRESSURE TO THE NE PULLS AWAY...AND ALLOWS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO LOOSEN CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL GO NW-N THURSDAY AFTN
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODERATE NE WIND SHOULD
BE EXPECTED DAYBREAK FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD OF
THE COASTAL WATERS MIDDAY FRIDAY. SEAS SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE NE
WAVE ENERGY ON THE WANE WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SMALLER BUT A
MYRIAD OF S-SE MINOR WAVE TRAINS OF DIFFERING WAVE PERIODS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS SEAS WILL BUILD TO
2-4 FT...WITH SOME POSSIBLE 5FOOTERS IN THE OUTER WATERS OF AMZ-252
AND 250...AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS AND DECENT SWELL
ENERGY IS TAPPED INTO ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS QUIET BACK DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH SEAS ON SUNDAY MAINLY 2-3 FT AND
MAINLY NORTH WINDS 10-14 KTS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...DL/DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A LATE SEASON COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP
ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...
TONIGHT: HIGH-END ADVISORY (BUT SUB-WARNING CRITERIA) ICING WITH
DISCOURAGED TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...TO MORE
NUISANCE-TYPE IMPACTS WITH A FEW SLICK BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ALONG
SOUTHERN ADVISORY AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND
CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN.
A DEAMPLIFYING...POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SHEARING
VORTICITY MAX CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NC...WHILE A MORE
POTENT ONE OVER THE MS DELTA REGION ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT AND
PIVOTS (HARMLESSLY FOR CENTRAL NC) ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA
TO OFFSHORE THE GA/SC COAST...THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DCVA ATTENDANT
TO THE LEAD DEAMPLIFYING WAVE SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR THE PRECIPITATION AREA THAT EXPANDED FROM WESTERN SC
TO THE NW NC PIEDMONT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS FORCING...AND
ASSOCIATED MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION SUPPORTIVE OF 1) A
MIX OF SLEET WITH THE FREEZING RAIN AND 2) MODERATE PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY EDGE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC -
THROUGH 05-06Z IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT AND 07-09Z IN
THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES HAVE RANGED FROM A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS
TO MORE RECENTLY AS MUCH AS SIX HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION. THESE HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES
DURING THE TIMING REFERENCED ABOVE...WHICH IS CORROBORATED WITH NEAR
TERM RAP AND HRRR NWP GUIDANCE...WILL SUPPORT LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS OF 0.15"...TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS ONE THIRD OF AN INCH IN
ISOLATED SPOTS. CONSIDERED UPGRADING PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...SUCH AS GUILFORD AND ALAMANCE NORTHEASTWARD TO COUNTIES ALONG
THE VA BORDER...TO A WARNING. HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO SWITCH BETWEEN OR CONSIST OF A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN - OWING TO A 00Z GSO-OBSERVED 4 C WARM NOSE AND MINUS
7 C COLD NOSE BELOW - SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY ONE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. HAVE INSTEAD OPTED TO "HIT THE WORDING A LITTLE
HARDER" IN THE ADVISORY...WITH SLEET ACCUMULATION AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...AND FREEZING RAIN OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH...DERIVED FROM A 50/50 MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH
RATIOS OF 3-4:1...FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS
OF 0.15-0.30" OR SO. RECENT CHECKS WITH DUKE ENERGY INDICATE POWER
OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY SPARSE THUS FAR...WHICH SUGGESTS ICE
ACCRUAL IS NOT APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA AND WELL-HANDLED BY THE
ADVISORY...DESPITE NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS - INCLUDING AT LEAST
ONE FIERY ONE IN THE TRIAD.
ONCE THE MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END...PERIODS OF
MOSTLY NON-MEASURABLE "DRIZZLY" PRECIPITATION - FREEZING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA AND LIQUID ELSEWHERE - WILL PREVAIL. 10 PM
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT...TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. -MWS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING/AROUND LUNCHTIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT(EARLIER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA) AS THE MEASURABLE PRECIP
BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF THE AREA WITH THE EXITING UPPER WAVE.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY/ISOLATED
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH. -CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
COLD RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AND DRYING ALOFT. FLOW ATOP THE COLD DOME VEERS SOUTHERLY
AND STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE SATURATED PORTION OF THE
MOISTURE PROFILE CUTS OFF AROUND 6KFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE WEAK
FROM THE SOUTHEAST EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW SWINGS AROUND...HENCE
PRECIP WILL BE PATCHY AND LIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED TEMP PROFILE IN
THE LIQUID RANGE. NEAR NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND LOSS OF REINFORCING
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS NEARLY STEADY FROM 35 TO 40.
EROSION OF THE CAD WILL BE UNDERWAY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEP
SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING `COLD` FRONT.
DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK WITH THE PARENT SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...HENCE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY AS EROSION OF THE COLD AIR FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL PROMOTE A FAST WARMUP ALONG THE FRINGES...
AND THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS AS WELL. TIMING THE
WARMUP IS A PROBLEMATIC...AND THE NORTHEAST COULD SEE WARMUP DELATED
TIL LATER AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL BE WELCOMED
AFTER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH POST FROPA COLD AIR ADVECTION
WEDNSDAY NIGHT. MINS WILL FALL TO 40 TO 45...WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF PASSES BY
ALOFT...WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO BUILD AND MILD HIGH PRESSURE EDGES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 60S THURSDAY. GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS PROMOTE A F
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FRIDAY LOOKS VERY PLEASANT AT THIS TIME AS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ON THE
BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE VERY ZONAL. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL DOMINATE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
AND LOWS NEAR 50 DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS BY
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ATTENDANT
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH DESPITE THE CLOUDS...WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S NW TO SE. FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL NC NEAR 00Z
SUNDAY. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF...IF ANY DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE ECMWF COMING THROUGH AS MOSTLY
DRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH SB CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 300 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS. WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN AS THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH AN OUTSIDE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER REMAINS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...KNOCKING LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: COOLER DAY FOR SUNDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER AT THE SURFACE AND HIGHS SCALE BACK TO THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 DEGREES...DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL STILL BE ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HOWEVER AS THIS WILL NOT
CROSS THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH IT A REINFORCING DRY COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
ON MONDAY...A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY BUT COOL ACROSS CENTRAL
NC. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR HYBRID
DAMMING...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE WEST.
WHILE A WEDGE FRONT WILL DEVELOP...THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS
WEAKER THAN OPTIMAL FOR HYBRID CAD WHICH MAY TAME THE EFFECTS OF IT
A LITTLE BIT. REGARDLESS...COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE IS QUESTION IN THE
MODELS ON WHETHER OR NOT PRECIPITATION WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
BETWEEN A STRONG LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE SW ATLANTIC. ECMWF IS DRY AT THIS TIME WITH THE GFS SUPPORTING A
WETTER SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IN EITHER RUN IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME
AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 847 PM MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME. LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN... FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... BEFORE
CHANGING TO DRIZZLE BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY AT MOST SITES... WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KFAY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE
DURATION. WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AROUND 8-10 KTS.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS...
PARTICULARLY IN IFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...SHOULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
FINALLY ON WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO LIFT...
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ON SOME GUIDANCE THE CEILINGS OVER
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY NOT IMPROVE MARKEDLY UNTIL INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF WINDS LIGHTEN UP AS SKIES CLEAR...AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS. LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 18 (TUESDAY) ARE...
KGSO...36 DEGREES FROM 1961.
KRDU...36 DEGREES FROM 1892.
KFAY...41 DEGREES FROM 1998.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ011-026>028-040>043-073>077.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>025-038-039.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MWS/CBL
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...SEC/DJF
CLIMATE...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
236 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A LATE SEASON COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP
ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...
TONIGHT: HIGH-END ADVISORY (BUT SUB-WARNING CRITERIA) ICING WITH
DISCOURAGED TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...TO MORE
NUISANCE-TYPE IMPACTS WITH A FEW SLICK BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ALONG
SOUTHERN ADVISORY AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND
CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN.
A DEAMPLIFYING...POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SHEARING
VORTICITY MAX CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NC...WHILE A MORE
POTENT ONE OVER THE MS DELTA REGION ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT AND
PIVOTS (HARMLESSLY FOR CENTRAL NC) ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA
TO OFFSHORE THE GA/SC COAST...THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DCVA ATTENDANT
TO THE LEAD DEAMPLIFYING WAVE SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR THE PRECIPITATION AREA THAT EXPANDED FROM WESTERN SC
TO THE NW NC PIEDMONT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS FORCING...AND
ASSOCIATED MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION SUPPORTIVE OF 1) A
MIX OF SLEET WITH THE FREEZING RAIN AND 2) MODERATE PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY EDGE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC -
THROUGH 05-06Z IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT AND 07-09Z IN
THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES HAVE RANGED FROM A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS
TO MORE RECENTLY AS MUCH AS SIX HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION. THESE HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES
DURING THE TIMING REFERENCED ABOVE...WHICH IS CORROBORATED WITH NEAR
TERM RAP AND HRRR NWP GUIDANCE...WILL SUPPORT LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS OF 0.15"...TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS ONE THIRD OF AN INCH IN
ISOLATED SPOTS. CONSIDERED UPGRADING PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...SUCH AS GUILFORD AND ALAMANCE NORTHEASTWARD TO COUNTIES ALONG
THE VA BORDER...TO A WARNING. HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO SWITCH BETWEEN OR CONSIST OF A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN - OWING TO A 00Z GSO-OBSERVED 4 C WARM NOSE AND MINUS
7 C COLD NOSE BELOW - SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY ONE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. HAVE INSTEAD OPTED TO "HIT THE WORDING A LITTLE
HARDER" IN THE ADVISORY...WITH SLEET ACCUMULATION AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS...AND FREEZING RAIN OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH...DERIVED FROM A 50/50 MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH
RATIOS OF 3-4:1...FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS
OF 0.15-0.30" OR SO. RECENT CHECKS WITH DUKE ENERGY INDICATE POWER
OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY SPARSE THUS FAR...WHICH SUGGESTS ICE
ACCRUAL IS NOT APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA AND WELL-HANDLED BY THE
ADVISORY...DESPITE NUMEROUS CAR ACCIDENTS - INCLUDING AT LEAST
ONE FIERY ONE IN THE TRIAD.
ONCE THE MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END...PERIODS OF
MOSTLY NON-MEASURABLE "DRIZZLY" PRECIPITATION - FREEZING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA AND LIQUID ELSEWHERE - WILL PREVAIL. 10 PM
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT...TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. -MWS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE
MORNING/AROUND LUNCHTIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT(EARLIER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA) AS THE MEASURABLE PRECIP
BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF THE AREA WITH THE EXITING UPPER WAVE.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY/ISOLATED
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH. -CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE RIDGE...AND IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY. GUIDANCE OVER THE
LAST DAY OR SO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS SYNOPTIC TREND...WITH ONE
DIFFERENCE BEING CONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE MOVING THE SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH FASTER...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THE COLD AIR WEDGE SHOULD REMAIN INTO MUCH OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY STARTING TO ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
ANOTHER LONG-TERM CONSISTENCY IS KEEPING WET BULB SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES ARE ALSO PRIMARILY IN THE LIQUID
RANGE AND ARE ACTUALLY WARMER ON THE NAM OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY THE PERIOD AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY ON THE
GFS POSSIBLY INTO THE FREEZING RANGE. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THEIR
COLDEST...WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST OF ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING
LIQUID IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SHALLOW INSTABILITY
NEAR THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER INCREASES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT MOIST LAYER DEEPENS. EARLY AT NIGHT...ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE DRIZZLE OR VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS...ADDITIONALLY...A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN AND THERE EXISTS WEAK 850MB LIFT. DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW.
THE GFS...AND EVEN THE NAM BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE...INCREASES WINDS
AT 850MB APPRECIABLY AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER THESE
WINDS AND SOME WARM-AIR ADVECTION EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW 850MB
HELPS TO CAP SOME OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER OR HELPS ERODE THE CLOUD
COVER. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME CLEARING AND
WARMING LATE...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN SLOWER WITH THE WEDGE
NOT COMPLETELY ERODING UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOSER TO THE APPROACH
OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS DRY AND MORE STABLE THAN THE NAM...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES FORECAST A WEAK INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E
VALUES AND THE APPROACH OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 115KT
300MB JET...AND A 90KT 500MB JET. WILL SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR NOW. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM WOULD SUGGEST THAT...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE JETS
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
IS WARRANTED AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FOR A PERIOD. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD...AFTER LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...
AND SHOW ONLY A MODEST DIURNAL FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN A SOUTHWEST
TO WEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FRIDAY LOOKS VERY PLEASANT AT THIS TIME AS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ON THE
BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE VERY ZONAL. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL DOMINATE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
AND LOWS NEAR 50 DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS BY
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ATTENDANT
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH DESPITE THE CLOUDS...WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S NW TO SE. FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL NC NEAR 00Z
SUNDAY. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF...IF ANY DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE ECMWF COMING THROUGH AS MOSTLY
DRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH SB CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 300 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KTS. WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN AS THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH AN OUTSIDE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER REMAINS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...KNOCKING LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: COOLER DAY FOR SUNDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER AT THE SURFACE AND HIGHS SCALE BACK TO THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 DEGREES...DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL STILL BE ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HOWEVER AS THIS WILL NOT
CROSS THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH IT A REINFORCING DRY COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
ON MONDAY...A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY BUT COOL ACROSS CENTRAL
NC. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR HYBRID
DAMMING...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE WEST.
WHILE A WEDGE FRONT WILL DEVELOP...THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS
WEAKER THAN OPTIMAL FOR HYBRID CAD WHICH MAY TAME THE EFFECTS OF IT
A LITTLE BIT. REGARDLESS...COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE IS QUESTION IN THE
MODELS ON WHETHER OR NOT PRECIPITATION WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
BETWEEN A STRONG LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE SW ATLANTIC. ECMWF IS DRY AT THIS TIME WITH THE GFS SUPPORTING A
WETTER SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IN EITHER RUN IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME
AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 847 PM MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME. LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN... FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... BEFORE
CHANGING TO DRIZZLE BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY AT MOST SITES... WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KFAY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE
DURATION. WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AROUND 8-10 KTS.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS...
PARTICULARLY IN IFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...SHOULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
FINALLY ON WEDNESDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO LIFT...
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ON SOME GUIDANCE THE CEILINGS OVER
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY NOT IMPROVE MARKEDLY UNTIL INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF WINDS LIGHTEN UP AS SKIES CLEAR...AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS. LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 18 (TUESDAY) ARE...
KGSO...36 DEGREES FROM 1961.
KRDU...36 DEGREES FROM 1892.
KFAY...41 DEGREES FROM 1998.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ011-026>028-040>043-073>077.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>025-038-039.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MWS/CBL
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...SEC/DJF
CLIMATE...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
926 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATE EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO
DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. EVENING HYDRO
UPDATES INCLUDED CONTINUING FLOOD WARNINGS AT TOWNER AND
BANTRY...AND CANCELLING THE FLOOD WARNING ON THE MISSOURI AT
WILLISTON. THE RIVER DROPPED RAPIDLY TODAY AND IS NOW BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AS FORECAST BY THE RAP/HR HRRR AND 4 KM WRF EARLIER TODAY...SHALLOW
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ALONG...NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. SNOW WAS OBSERVED UNDER ONE
OF THESE SHOWERS AT A TEMPERATURES OF 44 DEGREES AT KBIS. GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION....BUMPED UP THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE THRESHOLD TO ALL RAIN ABOVE 45 F...ALL SNOW
BELOW 38 F AND A MIX IN BETWEEN FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET.
FOR THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS AN OCCLUDING WARM FRONT
PROPAGATES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ML CAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS...ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE DAY 2
SPC GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW. TRENDS CONTINUE WITH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAINLY
COVERING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AS THE TARGET AREA FOR THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...AROUND ONE TO
POSSIBLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW/PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW..LESS THAN ONE INCH...IS FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A POTENT SURFACE/UPPER AIR LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO MINNESOTA FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST
OMEGA/VERTICAL MOTION IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HENCE THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PER NAM 850MB ISOTHERM PACKING
AND 6-7MB 3HR PRESSURE RISES WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH PRODUCING
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLDER SATURDAY AND DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO
MID 20S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY.
COULD SEE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH
SOUTH FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SNOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE LATE THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY. BY THE TIME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
OCCURS...BEGINNING LATE MORNING WEST THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH
THE DAY...TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. FOR
NOW...HAVE TIMED VCSH GROUPS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS. ISOLATED
THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BUT LOW PROBABILITY PRECLUDES INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...RK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE. DIURNAL
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AS FORECAST BY THE RAP/HR HRRR AND 4 KM WRF EARLIER TODAY...SHALLOW
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ALONG...NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. SNOW WAS OBSERVED UNDER ONE
OF THESE SHOWERS AT A TEMPERATURES OF 44 DEGREES AT KBIS. GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION....BUMPED UP THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE THRESHOLD TO ALL RAIN ABOVE 45 F...ALL SNOW
BELOW 38 F AND A MIX IN BETWEEN FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET.
FOR THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS AN OCCLUDING WARM FRONT
PROPAGATES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ML CAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS...ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE DAY 2
SPC GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW. TRENDS CONTINUE WITH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAINLY
COVERING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AS THE TARGET AREA FOR THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...AROUND ONE TO
POSSIBLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW/PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW..LESS THAN ONE INCH...IS FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A POTENT SURFACE/UPPER AIR LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO MINNESOTA FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST
OMEGA/VERTICAL MOTION IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HENCE THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PER NAM 850MB ISOTHERM PACKING
AND 6-7MB 3HR PRESSURE RISES WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH PRODUCING
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLDER SATURDAY AND DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO
MID 20S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY.
COULD SEE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH
SOUTH FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SNOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE LATE THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY. BY THE TIME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
OCCURS...BEGINNING LATE MORNING WEST THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH
THE DAY...TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. FOR
NOW...HAVE TIMED VCSH GROUPS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS. ISOLATED
THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BUT LOW PROBABILITY PRECLUDES INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...RK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
145 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT MONDAY...
CONCERNS FOR ICING CONTINUE TO GROW ACROSS THE EASTERN NC PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AS MOISTURE FROM SE DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM BACKS NWWD
INTO THIS REGION. ICING ACCUMULATIONS ON THE VERGE OF WARNING
CRITERIA AND IT HAS BEEN VERY TROUBLESOME. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN
ROCKINGHAM AND CASWELL COUNTIES WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 1/4
INCH...BUT MOST AREAS JUST BELOW THIS. PER EARLIER HRRR...FEEL
THAT BULK OF THIS PCPN WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS...SO
A WARNING AT THIS POINT WOULD PROBABLY ADD LITTLE VALUE. SO WILL
STAY COURSE WITH STRONGLY WORDED ADVISORY WITH ACCUMULATIONS NEAR
1/4 INCH IN SOME AREAS. ELSEWHERE...FZDZ AND FZFG COVER THE
SITUATION WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. HAVE HAD TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THIS
WEDGE IS HOLDING TOUGH.
AS OF 745 PM EDT MONDAY...
MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
FIRST...SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTAL SYSTEM RESULTING IN RETROGRADING
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE NC/SOUTHSIDE VA COUNTIES. HRRR MODEL
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS AS THE WRF DID NOT HAVE A
CLUE AND THE LARGER SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HANDLE IT POORLY. USING
THE HRRR AS A GUIDE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INTO OUR NC
COUNTIES AND TOWARD MTV/DAN THROUGH 06Z...THEN TAPER BACK TO
LOW/MID CHC RANGE AFTER THAT. THE BIG CONCERN WITH THIS AREA OF
PCPN IS THE TEMPERATURE. CLASSIC...SIGNIFICANT WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE AND IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE...POSSIBLY UNTIL WED AFTERNOON.
WRF HAD US IN THE MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE IN REALITY IT HAS
NOT BUDGED OUT OF THE MID 20S IN MANY AREAS. THE ENTIRE CWA IS
BELOW FREEZING AT THIS POINT AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL AT LEAST
MID-DAY TUE. THUS...ANY PCPN WILL BE FZRA OR SLEET. WARM NOSE TOO
DEEP AND DYNAMICS TOO WEAK FOR ANY SN. FOR WSW...HAVE SEPARATED
OUT SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE FZRA/SLEET MORE LIKELY FROM COUNTIES
FURTHER NORTH WHERE PCPN WILL LIKELY BE JUST FZDZ/FZFG. IN THE
WEST...COOP OBSERVER RECENTLY CALLED IN FROM WYTHE COUNTY
REPORTING SIGNIFICANT RIME ICING FROM FZFG AND NOTED THAT PREVIOUSLY
DRY SURFACES WERE COATED WITH ICE. HAVE ISSUED A FZFG ADVISORY
FOR ALL WESTERN COUNTIES NOT INCLUDED IN THE WSW. HAVE ENDED THAT
AT 14Z SINCE THESE ARE THE AREAS MORE LIKELY TO CREEP ABOVE 32F
SOONER ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WEDGE.
AS OF 410 PM EDT MONDAY...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THIS EVENING UNTIL
NOON WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR OTTAWA WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THIS STRONG
WEDGE/COLD AIR DAMMING WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING LEAVING NO POTENTIAL FOR SNOW CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUDS. THERE
IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BE MAIN PTYPE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL...ANY ICE WILL BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING
OVER NEW ENGLAND...WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE WEDGE AND THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW. INCREASED POPS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
UPSLOPE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE TRICKY. PLAYED HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S ALONG BLUE RIDGE TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE FAR WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEDGE OF VERY COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER MOST...IF
NOT ALL OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA INTO/THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
NATION DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING TROF ADVANCING EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A STEEP INVERSION IN THE LOWER 6K FT
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND
ALSO WELL BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST WILL RESULT IN FORCED ASCENT THROUGH A SATURATED LOWER
LAYER TO WRING OUT SPOTTY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE...MAXIMIZED ALONG AND MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WARM NOSE AT TOP OF INVERSION LAYER SUFFICIENTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...AND WITH NO MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO SUPPORT SEEDER-
FEEDER PROCESSES THROUGH DENDRITIC LEVEL...PRECIPITATION THIS TIME
AROUND WILL BE ALL LIQUID AS OPPOSED TO SNOW/SLEET.
OVERALL AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MEAGER...PERHAPS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME GLAZING OF
ELEVATED EXPOSED SURFACES...AGAIN MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS A RESULT...MAY AGAIN HAVE TO POST
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL CURRENT HEADLINES
IN NEAR-TERM PERIOD EXPIRE SO AS TO NOT CONFUSE THE ISSUE...AND
HIGHLIGHT IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.
TROF AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT FORECAST TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE
BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA BY/DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY
PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SOME BRIEF SPOTTY SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SOME UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
REGARDLESS...ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY HELP TO SCOUR OUT
TENACIOUS COOL WEDGE OVER AREA...SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY
SPIKE WITH ONSET OF MIXING BEFORE TRAILING OFF AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME-FRAME AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS THEN SET TO
PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...LIKELY
PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST AREAS IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME-FRAME...WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHERE SOME UPSLOPING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VERY STRONG WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL STAY IFR TO LIFR UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG...FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN
MVFR VISIBILITIES. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LIFT TO MVFR FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. KBLF WILL BE NEAR THE FRINGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS AND WEDGE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS TO WHEN CEILINGS WILL
LIFT AND WHEN LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING. FOR
ALL OTHER TAF SITES...AROUND 00Z/8PM CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
AGAIN LOWER TO IFR/LIFR VALUES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS...THEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ011-
013>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
009-010-012.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...AMS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
913 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
AS THE LAST OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EXITS EASTERN SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY WITH DEPARTING VORT MAX...WATCHING PCPN CROSSING SW MN/NW
IA THAT HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN. THIS IS WARM
AIR ADVECTION- DRIVEN PCPN ON THE BACK OF THE THERMAL TROUGH THAT
IS CROSSING WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
ARW-WRF AND NMM-WRF AS WELL AS 00Z RAP EITHER TAKE THIS POCKET OF
PCPN TO THE SOUTH VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO THE 12Z
ECMWF WITH THE BETTER CROSS-ISOTHERMAL FLOW AND LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS...OR DISSIPATE IT ALTOGETHER LIKE THE 18Z NAM.
THE 18Z GFS AND 21Z SREF BRUSH SW AND FAR S CNTRL WI WITH LIGHT
QPF THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW/FLURRIES
CURRENTLY IN FORECAST...BUT WILL PULL BACK IF 00Z NAM AND GFS
TREND DRIER LIKE THE RAP.
WILL SEE LOW CLOUD DECK SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
COOL THERMAL TROUGH MOVES EAST...BUT QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BAND OF
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
IF MOVEMENT REMAINS THE SAME...EXPECT THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK TO REACH KMSN AROUND 06Z...KUES AT 08Z...AND KMKE AND
KENW BY 09Z. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BEGIN TO EASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS TIGHT GRADIENT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT A BAND OF VFR CLOUDS TO SKIM ACROSS SRN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY SOUTHWEST OF TAF SITES IF THEY DO
OCCUR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AFTER CURRENT
MVFR DECK CLEARS.
&&
.MARINE...
WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE A GUST OR TWO THAT REACHES SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEY WONT BE
FREQUENT ENOUGH/LONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY EXTENDING THE ADVISORY PAST
CURRENT 12 MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION TIME. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
QUIET WEATHER AND CALMER WINDS FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014/
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE - HIGH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SMALL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. TONIGHT...MAY
SEE A FEW FLURRIES IN PORTIONS SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH. VERY SATURATED LOW-LEVELS TONIGHT AMPLE DRYING ALOFT. GIVEN
THE CLOUD SHIELD AS IS...DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL THE
MORNING. CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE
EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY. 500 HPA LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH
AXIS OVER LK MI THIS EVENING PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE NE US AND
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED COINCIDING WITH HT RISES IN THE GREAT
PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF
WISCONSIN THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD AWAY FROM LAKE HURON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN 925 HPA TEMPERATURES WARMING UP...PEAKING
BETWEEN -1 TO 2 C. GIVEN ADEQUATE MIXING...LIGHT WINDS...AND
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION VIA PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HIGHS THURSDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON SMALL AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER NRN IL IN VICINITY OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AS WMFNT SHIFTS NWD. NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS NRN IL WHILE GFS AND ECMWF WEAKER AND
FARTHER SOUTH. COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS SPARSE DURING TIME OF PEAK
FORCING WITH THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. FOR
NOW WL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
BETTER THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN SPREADS IN LATER FRIDAY AS STRONGER MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW MOVES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND
UPPER MI. PREFER MORE CONSISTENT GFS TIMING OF TROF PASSAGE ON FRI.
SOUTHWARD TROF EXTENSION EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SRN WI DURING THE
DAY. COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES BUT STILL NOT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DEEPER RH. WITH STRONGEST FORCING REMAINING TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO
LOW CENTER...WL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTN AS MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SLIPS THROUGH.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
INITIAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR SETTLES OVER WI FOR SATURDAY BUT TEMPS
SHOULD STILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AS 85H TEMPS FALL TO -5 TO -10C.
THIS INITIAL SURGE ALONG WITH WEAK ELONGATED DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION MAY SET OFF A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES ON SATURDAY. MOST
OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
- MEDIUM TRENDING TOWARD LOW.
ECMWF AND CANADIAN HANGING ONTO SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...COLD AIR THAT WILL
HAVE BEEN BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN
PLAINS BECOMES ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE
WEAKENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GTLAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SUNDAY
NIGHT TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
SOUTHERN WI TO REMAIN ON NORTHEAST FRINGE OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PAIR OF WEAK WAVES/SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
MOVE THOUGH THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WL NEED TO KEEP
SMALL CHANCES IN FOR -SN DURING THIS PERIOD AS COLUMN MOISTURE WILL
EXTEND TO 10K FT.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSUE HELPS TO REINFORCE COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES AROUND MID-
WEEK AS ECMWF CONTINUES COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AFFECTING
SOUTHERN WI WHILE GFS TRENDING TOWARD INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RESULTANT WARMER TEMPS ON THU.
CONSIDERING EARLIER RUNS OF ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF FROM WARMER
SOLUTION...THINKING TREND IS THERE FOR CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH THU. GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
IN MEMBERS NEXT THURSDAY AS WELL. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
AROUND FRIDAY.
AT THIS TIME...EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LAST WEEK OF MARCH. RECORD LOWS AT BOTH MSN AND MKE
REMAIN ABOVE ZERO DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL WITH THE NORMAL HIGH
RISING TO AROUND 50.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AS
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES AT
KMSN IN THE EARLY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOG AND VIS
SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW LARGE STRATIFORM CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE WITH
CIGS INCREASING TOWARDS THE WEST. MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT. SKY COVER SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
START DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE IN THE MORNING.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...UP TO 25 KNOTS...IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE LATE
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS SAID LOW MOVES AWAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
AFTER WHICH...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...ET
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
255 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA. THE 18.12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE TWO NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE 18.12Z GFS INDICATES THIS WILL PATTERN WILL TAKE
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THEN SWING MODERATE TO
STRONG PV ADVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-500 MB
LAYER THIS EVENING AND SOME LINGERING WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
WITH 2 TO 4 UBAR/S SHOWN BY THE GFS ON THE 285K SURFACE. ALL THIS
FORCING WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THAT WERE MADE WERE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST TO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CARRYING
A 100 PERCENT CHANCE AFTER 06Z FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND THEN HAVING
A SHARPER BACK EDGE AS THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTS WEDNESDAY WHICH
ENDS UP KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DRY
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE 18.12Z NAM SHOWS A
WARMER SOLUTION THAN EITHER THE GFS OR 18.12Z ECMWF WITH THE 0C
LINE FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH ABOUT -2C
OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS. THE GFS HAS THE 0C LINE FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...JUST BARELY INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH ABOUT -3C
AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST. THE ECWMF IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THE
0C LINE BUT CLOSER TO THE NAM WITH -2C OVER THE NORTHWEST. ALL THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THIS WARM AIR ALOFT SLIDING OUT OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ONCE THE SURFACE LOW GOES BY. THE 18.18Z RAP LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE NAM THROUGH 06Z...SO CONCERNED THAT THE WARMER
SOLUTION MAY END UP BEING CORRECT. FOR NOW...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS...BUT WITH ALL OF THEM SHOWING SOME WARM AIR
ALOFT...THE LEADS TO THE CONCERN FOR SOME SLEET IN THE TRANSITION
BETWEEN THE RAIN TO SNOW AND HAVE ADDED THIS IN AS A POSSIBLE
WEATHER TYPE. WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PREDOMINANTLY
SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I90 WITH UP TO 3 INCHES IN TAYLOR COUNTY. THUS...NOT
PLANNING ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM COMING
IN FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA. THE CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL FLATTEN OUT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BUT THEN SHIFT
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WHETHER SATURATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE
OR AFTER THE SURFACE LOW HAS PASSED BY THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS
THE QUICKEST TO BRING THE PRECIPITATION IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS PRIMARILY KEEP THE AREA DRY ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR ONCE THE LOW IS PAST THE AREA. WILL SHOW A
SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY. THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE BATTLING SOME DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE OVER THE REGION...SO FOR NOW...THIS LEADS TO 30 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO RAIN/SNOW FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS
TONIGHT. INITIALLY WARM AIR IS IN PLACE TO KEEP PRECIP IN LIQUID
FORM. GFS COLDER SOLUTION SUGGESTS A CHANGE TO SNOW MUCH SOONER
BUT NAM/RAP AND OTHER SHORT TERM MESO MODELS SUGGESTING THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS ARE MOST LIKLEY. THUS EXPECT CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR JUST
PAST MIDNIGHT. COULD BE SOME ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY AT KRST
AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELDS DURING THE MORNING
FLIGHT TIMES. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES...EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS WILL SWITCH TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND BECOME RATHER
GUSTY. EXPECTING GUSTS OVER 20 KTS FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
355 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 10 AM...
.NEAR TERM.../TODAY & TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS OVERSPREADING NE FL WITH TRENDS
DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR MODEL. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL
OF NE FL THROUGH 10 AM. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE TRACKING NE FROM
THE FL PANHANDLE AND MAY PRECLUDED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVER SE GA...SO FOR NOW ADVERTISED AREAS OF DENSE FOG. WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL ADVISORY. MIN TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO FALL INTO
THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST UNDER
CALM WINDS WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE GULF OVER NORTH FLORIDA. DENSE FOG WILL LIFT BY MID- MORNING WITH
SOME FOG LINGERING OFFSHORE OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
NOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FORM THE WNW AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WITH
MOISTURE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS THE BOUNDARY IS SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THUS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL AND LEANED ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS WITH MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE AN AFTN SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. DRY AND COOLER
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP MIN TEMPS BELOW CLIMO VALUES INLAND WITH LOWER
40S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S IN A FEW NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES. FARTHER
SOUTH FROM JAX TO GNV SOUTHWARD...MINS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW 50S WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
CONTINUING THE LOW RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER SHORT WAVE AFFECTS THE AREA
WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SHOWN BY MODELS OFF OUR ATLANTIC COAST.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC... DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DENSE FOG WILL RESULT IN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 13Z-14Z THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF.
&&
.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE WITH EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WHERE COMBINED SEAS OF 6 FT ARE LIKELY DUE TO LINGERING
EAST SWELLS. SEAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 6 FT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
VEER THROUGH SAT NIGHT TO SSW WITH SPEEDS 10 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4
FT. WINDS INCREASE LATE SUN TO NEAR SCEC LEVELS OFFSHORE AS THE
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASED ONSHORE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
DOWN THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK TODAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD EAST SWELLS OF
2-3 FT WITH PERIODS OF 13 SECONDS. MODERATE RISK LIKELY TOMORROW
DUE OT THE LINGERING SWELLS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...SEVERAL AREA RIVER GAGES CONTINUED TO REPORT LEVELS
AT ACTION TO MINOR FLOODING STAGE. THE ONLY SITE TO CREST JUST
BELOW MODERATE FLOODING WAS THE ST MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY...WHICH
WAS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 75 42 76 52 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 68 51 71 58 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 75 49 77 54 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 69 53 74 59 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 76 47 79 54 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 77 51 81 56 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-
BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
NASSAU-ST JOHNS.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
COASTAL GLYNN.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZIBURA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
316 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
HAD TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER UNTIL OVERNIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS AS CLEARING AS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE STRATOCU DECK STILL JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...HAD TO KEEP THE GUSTY WINDS IN A LITTLE LONGER AS GUSTS HAVE
STAYED UP IN THE 30S PER RAP AND NAM BUFKIT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BY
THIS EVENING. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DECENT...ALBEIT
SLOW...DRYING AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FIRST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT
AND THEN WITH A COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ENOUGH TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK UP INTO THE 50S...POSSIBLY
EVEN HITTING 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY INCREASE IN THE EVENING AS A WARM FRONT
CREEPS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN AS THE FRONT
LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AND THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 40-45 KT 850 MB JET. THEREFORE...CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL RUNS LOOK TO HAVE JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...ONCE ANY
LINGERING WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS EXIT THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TIME HOURS.
THIS BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS...WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S. WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING...SLOWED DOWN THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY WITH NO POPS AGAIN UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO
BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH A DECENT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MODERATE
DYNAMICS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE LARGELY DRY AND COOL WITH TWO SEPARATE 1030 PLUS MILLIBAR
CANADIAN HIGHS DOMINATING THE AREA...SAVE FOR AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION BETWEEN THEM...WHICH MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALLBLEND HANDLED THE PERIOD RELATIVELY WELL. TEMPS SEEMED A BIT
WARM TUESDAY IN LIGHT OF AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND 850 TEMPS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF -10C...SO MADE SOME CHANGES THERE. REMAINDER OF
INITIALIZATION REQUIRED ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
TAF SITES ARE SITTING RIGHT AT THE MVFR/VFR MARK AND SHOULD START
TRANSITIONING TO ALL VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FARTHER INTO THE AREA. THEY WILL THEN REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. WEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT HAD TO CARRY GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS YET.
THIS WILL MEAN SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24
KTS THROUGH THU 09Z. WINDS WILL STREGTHEN AGAIN AROUND MID
MORNING...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT END OF TAF PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE/MK
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1255 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
HAD TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER UNTIL OVERNIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS AS CLEARING AS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF THE STRATOCU DECK STILL JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...HAD TO KEEP THE GUSTY WINDS IN A LITTLE LONGER AS GUSTS HAVE
STAYED UP IN THE 30S PER RAP AND NAM BUFKIT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BY
THIS EVENING. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DECENT...ALBEIT
SLOW...DRYING AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FIRST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT
AND THEN WITH A COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ENOUGH TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK UP INTO THE 50S...POSSIBLY
EVEN HITTING 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY INCREASE IN THE EVENING AS A WARM FRONT
CREEPS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN AS THE FRONT
LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT AND THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 40-45 KT 850 MB JET. THEREFORE...CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL RUNS LOOK TO HAVE JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...ONCE ANY
LINGERING WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS EXIT THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TIME HOURS.
THIS BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS...WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S. WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING...SLOWED DOWN THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY WITH NO POPS AGAIN UNTIL
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO
BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WITH A DECENT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MODERATE
DYNAMICS...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY THAN LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST A PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH LIMITED SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA IN THE FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA. FLOW OF ANY
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF REMAINS CUT OFF. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS EVEN WHEN A CUSPY AREA PASSES
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED. WILL TAKE THE ROUTE OF WAITING FOR MORE SUPPORT BEFORE
KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
TAF SITES ARE SITTING RIGHT AT THE MVFR/VFR MARK AND SHOULD START
TRANSITIONING TO ALL VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FARTHER INTO THE AREA. THEY WILL THEN REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. WEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT HAD TO CARRY GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS YET.
THIS WILL MEAN SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24
KTS THROUGH THU 09Z. WINDS WILL STREGTHEN AGAIN AROUND MID
MORNING...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT END OF TAF PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE/MK
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER TODAY FOLLOWED BY
HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE PHASE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND
COMPLICATED FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE DAY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS DID FINE HERE BUT HAVE TO GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE
TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT. THE NEWEST ECMWF WAS CATCHING THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD THE BEST. THE LATEST RUC IS
MATCHING THE ECMWF WHICH GIVES GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION.
THE GFS WAS DOING BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THAN THE
SREF AND ECMWF.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION.
COMPLICATED SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND PATTERN FOR TODAY. THIS IS MADE
POSSIBLE BY A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FOLLOWED BY A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AS A NEW OR RESTRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A LOT OF DOWNWARD MOTION TODAY WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WINDS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. PER
THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR THIS SCENARIO THAT WINDS USUALLY
END UP BEING LIGHTER. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
ECMWF WHICH IS BEING VERY WELL SUPPORTED BY THE RUC/HRRR. THIS WIND
FORECAST HAS IMPLICATIONS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST WHICH WILL
BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOING
BY WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES...MADE
ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES AND NWP HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE SURFACE/2
METER GUIDANCE. KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE WILL GET BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETS REMAIN WELL
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A WEAKER
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY DROP TO NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER AROUND UNTIL
VERY LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE IN THE FAR NORTH INCREASES
AS LIFT DOES GET CLOSER TO THERE. LEFT THE THIN SLIVER OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE IN NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH
THE NEW GUIDANCE.
DURING THE DAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO THICKEN. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL MAKE FOR COOLER MAXES. AGAIN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
GUIDANCE AS TO HOW COOL TO MAKE IT. TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER
2 METER/SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BEGINS AFFECTING THE
AREA...MAINLY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST HALF DURING THE MORNING. THAT
LIFT GETS STRONGER AS IT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE GENERAL LAYOUT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
INCREASING JET LIFT...DID INCREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOW THE QUESTION OF PHASE BEGINS. MODELS ARE COMING IN COOLER FOR
THE MAXES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THAT DOES MAKE SENSE
SINCE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND
CONTINUES/INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. SO LOWERED MAXES IN THE NORTHERN HALF INTO THE 30S.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND SOUNDING PROFILES...CONTINUED A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THROUGH THE DAY. IF TEMPERATURES COOL ANY FASTER...THEN THE PHASE
MAY STAY ALL SNOW. LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BUT AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN AFFECTED BY THIS
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT TO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. NEWER MODEL RUN LOOKS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING OUT THE LIFT. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT POPS
IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. LEFT THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ALONE FOR THE
NIGHT PERIOD SINCE THIS NEW GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT IT.
THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATES. WITH SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOW PRECIP. CHANCES FOR
THE DAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE
AREA...ONLY WARMING HIGHS TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER WARMER AIR
MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH PREVENTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AM LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP. CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH AS MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
THERE WILL BE TO WORK WITH AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. IN ADDITION
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH THE TRI-STATE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYNOPTIC LIFT OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR
WEST THE WARMER AIR WILL BE PUSHED BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA
AND HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE HIGHS WILL BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...RAISING TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AND SHIFTING DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE DAY WITH A REDEVELOPING
SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST HAPPENING LATE IN THE DAY. A STRONG
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
FOR TODAY...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING TO VERY LOW VALUES. QUESTION
AS WAS DISCUSSED BY THE DAY SHIFT WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE. PER DISCUSSION ABOVE...TRANSITORY AND WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW STRONGER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY THAT NEAR 25
KNOTS WORTH OF WIND COULD GET MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...FLOW IS NOT UNIDIRECTIONAL BETWEEN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
WITH WEAK TO NO DOWNWARD MOTION TO HELP BRING HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. CANNOT SAY DEFINITIVELY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER THAT A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS OR GUSTS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
WILL REACH THE NEEDED CRITERIA. SO DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING SINCE THE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS
FOR THE REST OF THE SHIFT WITH THE DAY NEEDING TO GET A HANDLE ON
THIS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1048 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION...WITH MAIN CENTER ACROSS SW
KS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOMINATED BY RIDING...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS/POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY. THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING DUE TO MELTING
SNOW...BUT WITH AIR MASS ALOFT WARMING THE TEMP TREND HAS BEEN
POSITIVE. I WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS...OTHERWISE AFTERNOON FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. WE COULD STILL SEE A SMALL AREA OF EASTERN RED
WILLOW/NORTHERN NORTON COUNTY IMPACTED BY SNOW PACK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (WHERE AMOUNTS 5-6" FELL)...OTHERWISE THIS SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WAA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH GOOD MIXING WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S (POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IN THE WEST). LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD
ALSO MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES WELL
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR CWA (MINIMAL SURFACE GRADIENT) WE WILL NEED WINDS ALOFT
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE MUCH OTHER THAN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. THERE IS A LACK OF UNIDIRECTIONAL
GRADIENT ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A VERTICAL THERMAL
GRADIENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS I AM WONDERING IF MODEL WINDS ARE TOO
STRONG ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON GUSTS IS EVEN SMALLER. I
DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH (ASSUMING
MODEL WINDS ALOFT ARE RIGHT) DUE TO THE FAVORABLE MIXING...BUT I
DOUBT THIS WOULD BE FOR 3HR IF IT DID OCCUR. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
RECENT SNOW MELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND MARGINAL WINDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA I AM NOT PLANNING A RFW AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
THIS FAR SOUTH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 09Z-12Z.
SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH AT 20-25 KNOTS FRIDAY...
PER THE HIGHER WIND SPEED SOLUTIONS PRESENTED BY THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER FROM THURSDAY
DUE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH 250 MB JET CORE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT
SOME UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND POSITION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET. EXPECT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY BY 12Z SATURDAY.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT KEEPING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE DAY. BASED ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES...PLACED
A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE MORNING...
BECOMING ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED OVER THE AREA...BUT A
COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SO...EXPECT DRY WEATHER...BUT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A VERY AMPLIFIED 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS OR THEIR INTENSITIES. FOR NOW...KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WEST COAST RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES
EAST BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AND SHIFTING DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE DAY WITH A REDEVELOPING
SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST HAPPENING LATE IN THE DAY. A STRONG
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
WARM AIR WILL SURGE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS OF
BATCHES OF CIRRUS DEVELOPING OFF THE TETONS IN WYOMING WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE LESS THAN FULL SUN CONDITIONS TODAY SO THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE VERY WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED RAP AND
50 PERCENT OF THE NAM...ECM AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. 50S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE SNOW FIELD
LOCATED ACROSS NCNTL NEB.
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 KTS WHICH MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH BUT OVER JUST A SMALL PART OF NCNTL NEB EAST OF VALENTINE
AS SHOWN BY THE NAM. THE MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT OR THE PACIFIC HIGH BUILDING IN AND THIS IS LIKELY THE
REASON FOR THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
ACTIVE PATTERN TO DEVELOP IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW USHER IN A SERIES OF OPEN SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY
UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND CAA. THE FRONT ARRIVES WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
HOWEVER A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
AREA REVEAL STEEP LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH EXTEND INTO
A MARGINALLY SATURATED LOWER DENDRITIC LAYER. A FEW SHOWERY TYPE
SNOW/FLURRY BURSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY AS A 1040 MB HIGH SETTLES JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS ALLOWS FOR A UPSLOPE EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AS A
RESULT...LIGHT SNOW WILL FOCUS ALONG A MID-LEVEL FRONTOBAND AND
WITHIN A FAVORABLE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. ATTM...LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
UPGLIDE MAINLY TARGETING THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. ANY
ADDITIONAL QPF ON SUNDAY WOULD BE LIGHT...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS ANTICIPATED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. LONG RANGE MODELS ONCE AGAIN INDICATE STRONG
UPGLIDE ALONG THE 285K SURFACE INTO OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. GFS IS
MOST AMBITIOUS WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND DIGS THE WAVE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE EC WHICH MAINTAINS THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WILL
MAINTAIN SUB 40 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. BEYOND
MONDAY THE MODELS AGREE THAT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST ATOP THE HIGH
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE EAST AND WAA BUILDING
FROM THE WEST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS
PUSHING THE MID 50S FOR OUR SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS AON 25000
FT AGL AT BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH 17Z
THURSDAY...INCREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS THURSDAY EVENING. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE KLBF TERMINAL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LATE THURSDAY EVENING...AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS DIRECTING A WARM SURGE OF DRY AIR THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40
MPH AS SHOWN BY THE NAM...MOSGUIDE...RAP AND HRRR MODELS. THE RAP
SHOWS THE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ACROSS WY MOVING WELL INTO THE
FCST AREA AND LOWERING TO LESS THAN 5F. THE STRONGEST WINDS INCREASE
MARKEDLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
NAM...ECM AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST INCORPORATES MOISTENING OF THE DRY
AIR AS IT MOVES ACROSS RESIDUAL SNOW COVER IN WYOMING AND THE NEB
PANHANDLE.
THIS MAY BE A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST GIVEN THE SKILL OF THE RAP AND
HRRR MODELS THIS SPRING. THE FRENCHMAN BASIN AND CENTRAL SANDHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT THIS AFTN AND IT IS JUST A MATTER OF AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FOR CRITICAL FIRE LEVELS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM THU...ONLY LIGHT FOG LEFT ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. FOG
HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL INLAND SITES. WILL REMOVE MENTION FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISC...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS AN
850MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH 850MB CAA WEAKENING
THE INVERSION ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS TO FINALLY
DISSIPATE. MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE ERODING THE
INVERSION AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THE TRENDS THE
BEST WHICH DOES SHOW CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND DISSIPATING LATE
TONIGHT. NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED HOWEVER
SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES
CLEAR ENOUGH TO BRING ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BRINGING STRONGER SFC CAA
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE RETURN OF THE SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AND CLEARING SKIES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z RUNS
OF ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW AFFECTING AREA NEXT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT LEADING
TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR PSBL WINTER WX THREAT THAT
PERIOD.
IN WAKE OF SHRT WV TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSAGE...MARITIME HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN THU NIGHT WITH MID TO UPR
30S INLAND...BUT THEN WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. EVEN WARMER FOR SAT WITH W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONT...HIGHS APPROACHING MID 70S INLAND.
SERIES OF SHRT WVS WILL PUSH ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT THROGH AREA LATE
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. INITIAL FRONTAL INTRUSION LOOKS DRY WITH LIMITED
MSTR AND LIFT...BUT KEPT 20 POPS WITH A FEW MODELS INDICATING SOME
LIGHT QPF SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE MAIN THREAT OF
PCPN WILL BE IN WAKE OF FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH SECONDARY SHRT WV AND
WEAK OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING AS LOW LV WINDS BECOME NE...AND
INCREASED POPS TO 30% DURING THE DAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SE COAST MON NIGHT AND MOVING NE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. ECMWF IS STRONGER AND CLOSER TO COAST WHICH WOULD INDICATE
STRONG NOR`EASTER TYPE CONDITIONS FOR ERN NC INTO TUE NIGHT...WHILE
GFS WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE. BOTH INDICATE PCPN POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING OVER AREA LATE MON NIGHT WITH COLD AIR MASS STILL IN
PLACE...AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT PSBL WINTRY MIX AS PCPN
BEGINS WITH CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN IN AFTN AS THICKNESSES WARM. WILL
HANDLE WITH SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE MON NIGHT...INCREASING
TO CHC TUE MORNING...THEN CHC RAIN TUE AFTN. FOLLOWED HPC AND GFS
BLEND FOR NOW WITH NO PCPN FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED...BUT ECMWF WOULD
SUPPORT A LINGERING THREAT AND PSBL CHANGE BACK TO FROZEN PCPN WITH
TRACK MORE ALONG COAST.
MAX TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO 50S FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN MAINLY BELOW
50 FOR MON-WED.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM WED...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS RTES THIS
EVENING WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE ERODING THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT 850MB FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFT TO W AND
INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 850MB CAA WILL ALLOW THE INVERSION TO
ERODE FROM ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING STATUS TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THE TRENDS THE
BEST. HOWEVER...WITH NEAR SATURATED SFC CONDITIONS...ANY CLEARING
WILL BRING IMPROVED RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP...SO THE THREAT FOR CONDITIONS AOB IFR
PERSISTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AROUND DAYBREAK WITH W/NW FLOW BRINGING CAA AND DRYING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 12Z. W/NW WINDS AROUND 10-15
KT EXPECTED THURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND SUB VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR RETURNING FOR
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING IN AGAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 9 PM WED...A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO BISECT THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH LIGHT SE FLOW TO THE EAST AND LIGHT SW FLOW TO THE
WEST. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT WITH SW TO WLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENN VALLEYS.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE
A 7-10 FT MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL PERSISTS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS ARE
SUBSIDING A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREDICTED BY THE MODELS WITH 40136
NOW DOWN TO 4 FT AND HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.
WILL KEEP SCA FROM OCRACOKE TO LOOKOUT AS WRAP AROUND SWELL LIKELY
KEEPING ELEVATED SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THIS ZONE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THURS MORNING WITH WINDS
BECOMING NW AROUND 10-15KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS AROUND 4-7 FT
NORTH AND 2-5 FT SOUTH CONTINUE THURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AT
OR ABOVE 6 FT WILL LINGER INTO THU EVENING FOR NRN WATERS AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO NRLY 15-20 KT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. NRLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT WILL CONTINUE WITH CAA SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FT BRIEFLY FRI INTO EARLY
SAT...THEN BUILD AGAIN TO 5-7 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1 AM THU...SEAS 2 AND 10 MILES OFF DUCK ARE 6 AND 7 FEET
RESPECTIVELY. HAVE LET THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 1 AM.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...SK/BM/JME
MARINE...SK/CQD/JME
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
UPDATE MAINLY FOR MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES...LOWERING MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED A BIT MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES
HAD DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 20S. FARTHER WEST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN...TEMPERATURES WERE A
BIT MILDER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATE EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO
DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. EVENING HYDRO
UPDATES INCLUDED CONTINUING FLOOD WARNINGS AT TOWNER AND
BANTRY...AND CANCELLING THE FLOOD WARNING ON THE MISSOURI AT
WILLISTON. THE RIVER DROPPED RAPIDLY TODAY AND IS NOW BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AS FORECAST BY THE RAP/HR HRRR AND 4 KM WRF EARLIER TODAY...SHALLOW
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ALONG...NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. SNOW WAS OBSERVED UNDER ONE
OF THESE SHOWERS AT A TEMPERATURES OF 44 DEGREES AT KBIS. GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION....BUMPED UP THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE THRESHOLD TO ALL RAIN ABOVE 45 F...ALL SNOW
BELOW 38 F AND A MIX IN BETWEEN FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO FADE WITH SUNSET.
FOR THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS AN OCCLUDING WARM FRONT
PROPAGATES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ML CAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS...ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE DAY 2
SPC GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW. TRENDS CONTINUE WITH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAINLY
COVERING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AS THE TARGET AREA FOR THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...AROUND ONE TO
POSSIBLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW/PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW..LESS THAN ONE INCH...IS FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A POTENT SURFACE/UPPER AIR LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO MINNESOTA FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST
OMEGA/VERTICAL MOTION IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HENCE THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PER NAM 850MB ISOTHERM PACKING
AND 6-7MB 3HR PRESSURE RISES WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH PRODUCING
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLDER SATURDAY AND DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO
MID 20S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY.
COULD SEE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH
SOUTH FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SNOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING LATE THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE THURSDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA GROUPS AT KISN/KMOT/KJMS WHERE RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST...AND VCSH GROUPS AT KDIK/KBIS. ISOLATED THUNDER
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT LOW
PROBABILITY PRECLUDES INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...RK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED SO NOW THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP AND HOW DENSE. RAP AND NAM BOTH SHOW
SOME HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LOW VIS DEVELOPING TOWARDS
MORNING OVER THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SNOW
COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. ON THE OTHER HAND THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE
SNOW PACK. CROOKSTON HAS ALREADY GONE DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE
BUT NO OTHER SITES ARE THAT LOW AND VALLEY CITY HAS GONE DOWN TO
THREE QUARTERS AND THEN BACK UP. WILL GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR
NOW AND WILL JUST INCREASE FOG COVERAGE TO AREAS BUT HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT AND SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS OR WINDS
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA AND WEB CAMS AND
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS SHOW THAT THE TYPE HAS BEEN SNOW AS THERE HAS
BEEN SOME COOLING AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. BUMPED UP POPS FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO INCLUDE A MENTION FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...BUT AGREE THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. CONTINUED TO KEEP TEMPS ON TRACK AS WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT
LATER TONIGHT AS THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
MAIN CHALLENGES CONCERN PRECIP TIMING/LOCATION/AMOUNTS/PHASE
AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE. WILL USE A BLENDED 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH HAS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE GEM. THE
NAM SFC LOW TRACK/QPF PLACEMENT IS FARTHER NORTH AND WILL NOT
USE AT THIS TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...SPOTTY INSTABILITY
INDUCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE ALOFT
WILL DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 03 UTC. ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT COULD MAKE AREA ROADWAYS SLICK.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOVE FREEZING MELTING SNOW...THINK THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PROMOTE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE GRIDS FROM 06 TO 15
UTC ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WINTER STORM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GFS/ECMWF SFC LOW TRACK IS FROM NORTHERN MT AT 12 UTC THURSDAY TO
THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. BEST
PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE 850 HPA LOW TRACK AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...
BUT WILL EXTEND LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST CWA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NEAR SFC LAYER WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING...SO MOST
PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN. MAY EVEN BE A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ND. WILL NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 06
UTC AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. WITH PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCHES
AND STRONG MID- LEVEL FORCING...MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE 850 HPA LOW TRACK WHICH
MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THINK A
SOLID 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMONPLACE...BUT IF STRONG BANDING
DEVELOPS... THERE COULD BE A NARROW RIBBON THAT EXCEEDS 6 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...GFS/ECMWF 925 HPA
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS BY 18 UTC
FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE FALLING SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED BY THEN...BUT
DEPENDING ON ITS WETNESS THERE COULD BE CONSIDERABLE REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. GIVEN THE SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL AND STRONGER WINDS ON
FRIDAY...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM 18 UTC THURSDAY UNTIL 00 UTC SATURDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. SATURDAY
WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY...BUT DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNRIGHT COLD
FOR LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DEPICTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY OR TUESDAY LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SOME
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS MORNING. IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT IF ANY SITES
WILL GET DOWN TO LIFR...AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT
COULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
1-2SM AT ALL BUT KFAR AND AMEND AS NEEDED. ANY LOWER VIS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION. PRECIP
WILL BEGIN MOVING IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WILL JUST GO RAIN SNOW MIX FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TYPE AND HOW MUCH IT LOWERS VIS THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022-023.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. Light wind overnight will pick up out of the south tomorrow
as leeside trough deepens.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Current visible satellite imagery shows some high clouds over
southwest and southern portions of the CWA. Surface observations
still continue to show some of the lingering dust at Presidio
associated with a cold front that moved into the area yesterday
evening and overnight.
With surface high pressure having built into the area behind the
cold front...the area is currently experiencing north to northeast
prevailing surface flow. The HRRR and other models suggest that
this surface high pressure ridge will begin to slide east later this
afternoon. This should result in surface winds transitioning to
east to southeast across a good portion of the area by tonight.
With the ridge over the area for a good portion of the day
today...high temperatures will likely remain slightly cooler than
normal.
With zonal upper flow expected on Thursday and Friday... associated
surface trough development is expected on the lee side of the
Rockies. This will allow for south to southwest surface flow on
Thursday and downslope west winds Friday. The end result of these
dry warm winds will be a notable warming trend through Friday. 850
mb temperatures on the NAM support temperatures in the mid 80s on
Friday for most of the Permian Basin...with temperatures potentially
in the lower 90s for portions of the Trans Pecos Region. GFS
temperatures are progged to be slightly cooler than the NAM. For
now...will trend towards our current forecast...a hint cooler than
the latest NAM and ECMWF guidance.
A cold front will make its way into the area late Friday and
overnight early Saturday. The front will continue to build into the
area into Sunday...with last night`s European model run and this
mornings GFS being in decent agreement with regards to potential
rain chances over the southeast portions of our CWA on Sunday.
These rain chances are currently indicated in our current forecast
package and will be maintained.
FIRE WEATHER...
West winds on Friday will help develop a dryline over the eastern
Permian Basin during the late morning. This dryline will continue
to slide east of the area during the afternoon. Afternoon relative
humidity values of 7 to 11 percent are expected across much of our
area west of that dryline. 20 foot winds speeds could reach
critical thresholds for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the
Marfa Plateau. I would expect later shifts to be issuing a Fire
Weather Watch and eventually Red Flag warnings for these locations
if current trends persist. There is still some uncertainly on how
strong winds will be across the adjacent plains on Friday. The NAM
guidance is indicating slightly stronger winds than the GFS. At
this point it is a difficult determination as to which model is more
reasonable. If the NAM is correct...we could see critical fire
weather conditions over portions of Eddy and Lea County as well.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1040 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER UNAMPLIFIED AND
GENERALLY BENIGN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. MAIN FEATURE
OF NOTE IS AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH
PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH HAS SOME INFLUENCE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...HOWEVER
THE FLOW BECOMES CLOSE TO ZONAL IN NATURE BY THE TIME YOU REACH THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A
DRY PROFILE THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE TROP. ONLY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH 900MB...WITH A SHARP
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ABOVE THIS LEVEL. THE TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER A
SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSIVE ATMOSPHERE RESULTED IN AREAS OF FOG OVER
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THIS
FOG HAS BURNED OFF...ALTHOUGH A THICKER PATCH OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
REMAINS DOWN DOWN FT. MYERS AND MAY NOT COMPLETELY BURN OFF UNTIL
AROUND MIDDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL WHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ACROSS
GA/CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT WILL NEVER MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION AS IT
WASHOUT OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING...AND IS FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCT-BKN
AFTERNOON CU FIELD. LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING PROFILE...ONCE WE MIX UP
TO AROUND 4000FT OR SO...MUCH OF THE CU FIELD SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS WE MIX UP INTO THE MUCH DRIER COLUMN ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK QUITE SEASONABLE FOR MID/LATE MARCH WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S NORTH OF I-4...AND GENERALLY LOWER 80S FURTHER
SOUTH. WITH WINDS VEERING LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WOULD EXPECT MORE MODERATED TEMPS AT THE BEACHES.
A QUIET AND DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S NORTH...AND MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER
60S SOUTH. LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS AND WILL LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH THE
12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE.
VERY PLEASANT FRIDAY TO END OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH 15-16Z AROUND
PGD...FMY AND RSW. OTHERWISE BECOMING MVFR/VFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN AS A
COLD FRONT WEAKENS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL WASH
OUT OVER NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND STALL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 60 80 62 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 83 64 85 63 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 80 60 82 60 / 0 10 0 10
SRQ 76 61 81 61 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 77 48 82 55 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 75 64 80 65 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
907 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK OUT OF THE N/NE
BECOMING E/NE UP TO 10 MPH INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS
INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES WESTWARD BUT PW VALUES LOOK TO LOW FOR
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. SKIES WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COAST
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE LONG PERIOD
NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL GENERATE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. HAVE
ISSUED A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTLINE FOR THESE ENHANCED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...LATEST OBS FROM BUOY 41009 SHOWING HIGHER NORTHERLY WIND
SPEEDS THAN FORECAST...UP TO 15-17 KTS THIS MORNING. THIS IS
LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH/LOW OFFSHORE WHICH
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THIS FEATURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST
PLANNING ON CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR
SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS UP TO 6 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE AND OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
516 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER TODAY FOLLOWED BY
HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE PHASE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND
COMPLICATED FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE DAY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS DID FINE HERE BUT HAVE TO GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE
TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT. THE NEWEST ECMWF WAS CATCHING THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD THE BEST. THE LATEST RUC IS
MATCHING THE ECMWF WHICH GIVES GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION.
THE GFS WAS DOING BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THAN THE
SREF AND ECMWF.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION.
COMPLICATED SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND PATTERN FOR TODAY. THIS IS MADE
POSSIBLE BY A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FOLLOWED BY A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AS A NEW OR RESTRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A LOT OF DOWNWARD MOTION TODAY WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WINDS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. PER
THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR THIS SCENARIO THAT WINDS USUALLY
END UP BEING LIGHTER. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
ECMWF WHICH IS BEING VERY WELL SUPPORTED BY THE RUC/HRRR. THIS WIND
FORECAST HAS IMPLICATIONS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST WHICH WILL
BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOING
BY WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES...MADE
ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES AND NWP HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE SURFACE/2
METER GUIDANCE. KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE WILL GET BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETS REMAIN WELL
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A WEAKER
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY DROP TO NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER AROUND UNTIL
VERY LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE IN THE FAR NORTH INCREASES
AS LIFT DOES GET CLOSER TO THERE. LEFT THE THIN SLIVER OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE IN NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH
THE NEW GUIDANCE.
DURING THE DAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO THICKEN. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL MAKE FOR COOLER MAXES. AGAIN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
GUIDANCE AS TO HOW COOL TO MAKE IT. TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER
2 METER/SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BEGINS AFFECTING THE
AREA...MAINLY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST HALF DURING THE MORNING. THAT
LIFT GETS STRONGER AS IT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE GENERAL LAYOUT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
INCREASING JET LIFT...DID INCREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOW THE QUESTION OF PHASE BEGINS. MODELS ARE COMING IN COOLER FOR
THE MAXES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THAT DOES MAKE SENSE
SINCE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND
CONTINUES/INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. SO LOWERED MAXES IN THE NORTHERN HALF INTO THE 30S.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND SOUNDING PROFILES...CONTINUED A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THROUGH THE DAY. IF TEMPERATURES COOL ANY FASTER...THEN THE PHASE
MAY STAY ALL SNOW. LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BUT AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN AFFECTED BY THIS
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT TO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. NEWER MODEL RUN LOOKS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING OUT THE LIFT. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT POPS
IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. LEFT THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ALONE FOR THE
NIGHT PERIOD SINCE THIS NEW GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT IT.
THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATES. WITH SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOW PRECIP. CHANCES FOR
THE DAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE
AREA...ONLY WARMING HIGHS TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER WARMER AIR
MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH PREVENTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AM LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP. CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH AS MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
THERE WILL BE TO WORK WITH AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. IN ADDITION
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH THE TRI-STATE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYNOPTIC LIFT OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR
WEST THE WARMER AIR WILL BE PUSHED BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA
AND HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE HIGHS WILL BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...RAISING TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AND SHIFTING TO DUE THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
FOR TODAY...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING TO VERY LOW VALUES. QUESTION
AS WAS DISCUSSED BY THE DAY SHIFT WILL BE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BE. PER DISCUSSION ABOVE...TRANSITORY AND WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW STRONGER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY THAT NEAR 25
KNOTS WORTH OF WIND COULD GET MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...FLOW IS NOT UNIDIRECTIONAL BETWEEN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
WITH WEAK TO NO DOWNWARD MOTION TO HELP BRING HIGHER WINDS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. CANNOT SAY DEFINITIVELY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER THAT A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS OR GUSTS WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
WILL REACH THE NEEDED CRITERIA. SO DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING SINCE THE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS
FOR THE REST OF THE SHIFT WITH THE DAY NEEDING TO GET A HANDLE ON
THIS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
626 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
WARM AIR WILL SURGE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS OF
BATCHES OF CIRRUS DEVELOPING OFF THE TETONS IN WYOMING WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE LESS THAN FULL SUN CONDITIONS TODAY SO THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE VERY WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED RAP AND
50 PERCENT OF THE NAM...ECM AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. 50S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE SNOW FIELD
LOCATED ACROSS NCNTL NEB.
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 KTS WHICH MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH BUT OVER JUST A SMALL PART OF NCNTL NEB EAST OF VALENTINE
AS SHOWN BY THE NAM. THE MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT OR THE PACIFIC HIGH BUILDING IN AND THIS IS LIKELY THE
REASON FOR THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
ACTIVE PATTERN TO DEVELOP IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW USHER IN A SERIES OF OPEN SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY
UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND CAA. THE FRONT ARRIVES WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
HOWEVER A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
AREA REVEAL STEEP LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH EXTEND INTO
A MARGINALLY SATURATED LOWER DENDRITIC LAYER. A FEW SHOWERY TYPE
SNOW/FLURRY BURSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY AS A 1040 MB HIGH SETTLES JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS ALLOWS FOR A UPSLOPE EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AS A
RESULT...LIGHT SNOW WILL FOCUS ALONG A MID-LEVEL FRONTOBAND AND
WITHIN A FAVORABLE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. ATTM...LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
UPGLIDE MAINLY TARGETING THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. ANY
ADDITIONAL QPF ON SUNDAY WOULD BE LIGHT...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS ANTICIPATED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. LONG RANGE MODELS ONCE AGAIN INDICATE STRONG
UPGLIDE ALONG THE 285K SURFACE INTO OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. GFS IS
MOST AMBITIOUS WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND DIGS THE WAVE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE EC WHICH MAINTAINS THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WILL
MAINTAIN SUB 40 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. BEYOND
MONDAY THE MODELS AGREE THAT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST ATOP THE HIGH
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE EAST AND WAA BUILDING
FROM THE WEST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS
PUSHING THE MID 50S FOR OUR SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS MT...MOVES THROUGH
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS DIRECTING A WARM SURGE OF DRY AIR THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40
MPH AS SHOWN BY THE NAM...MOSGUIDE...RAP AND HRRR MODELS. THE RAP
SHOWS THE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ACROSS WY MOVING WELL INTO THE
FCST AREA AND LOWERING TO LESS THAN 5F. THE STRONGEST WINDS INCREASE
MARKEDLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
NAM...ECM AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST INCORPORATES MOISTENING OF THE DRY
AIR AS IT MOVES ACROSS RESIDUAL SNOW COVER IN WYOMING AND THE NEB
PANHANDLE.
THIS MAY BE A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST GIVEN THE SKILL OF THE RAP AND
HRRR MODELS THIS SPRING. THE FRENCHMAN BASIN AND CENTRAL SANDHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT THIS AFTN AND IT IS JUST A MATTER OF AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FOR CRITICAL FIRE LEVELS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1119 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE WELL OFF THE COAST THE REST OF TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BECOMES ENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING
AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM THU...A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH
TODAY AS A WEAK LEE TROUGH POSITIONED IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND SKY COVER FOR LATE THIS MORNING AS MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO DOWNSLOPING W-NW FLOW. TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WITH
COOLER READINGS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT AND BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WIDE TEMP/DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE OVERNIGHT
SO NO FOG IS FORECAST. LOWS THROUGHOUT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER THEMES WILL SHIFT FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY THEN AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK. COINCIDING WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IF THE 00Z GFS IS CORRECT. WHILE
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS AND THUS IMPACTS OF
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
POINTING TO AN ANOMALOUS PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS -1.5 TO -2 SD AND 850 TEMPS OF -2SD!
FRIDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT EARLY SPRING DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION OFF THE COAST SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD APPROACH 80
DEGREES. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SIGNAL A SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND ECMWF SO
WILL FOLLOW SUITE. THIS WILL ALLOW MILDER TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THERE IS ALSO STRONG CONSENSUS IN
DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE AND AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY SO INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEATHER FORECAST THEN BECOMES TRICKY WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SE COAST MON NIGHT AND MOVING NE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. ECMWF IS STRONGER AND CLOSER TO COAST WHICH WOULD INDICATE
STRONG NOR`EASTER TYPE CONDITIONS FOR ERN NC INTO TUE NIGHT...WHILE
GFS WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE. BOTH INDICATE PCPN DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE...AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT PSBL WINTRY MIX AS PCPN BEGINS WITH
CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN TUE AFTN AS THICKNESSES WARM. WILL HANDLE WITH
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE MON NIGHT...INCREASING TO CHC TUE
MORNING...THEN CHC RAIN TUE AFTN. FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS WAS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA BUT NOT GOING TO BUY OFF ON SUCH AN ANOMALOUS
SOLUTION THAT FAR OUT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW 50 FOR MON-WED WHICH WILL BE AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS!
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM THU...DRY FRONT IS ESTIMATED IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
MOVING QUICKLY EAST...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MID-
MORNING. UNTIL THAT TIME LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCT/BKN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/FOG. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
FORECASTING CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS SO NO FOG FORECAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM AROUND SUNSET AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SATURDAY WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW
EXPECTED. THERE IS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AS COLD HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/
AS OF 11 AM THU...SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRNET TRENDS. WINDS HAVE ALSO SLACKED
OFF A BIT RUNNING BETERRN 5 TO 15 KT. USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND
RAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FRONT TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST MID- MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT HEADLINES. HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MARINE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...FRIDAY NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO BE
SLOWER IN CROSSING THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE
FLOW SHIFTING TO NRLY 15-20 KT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SAT NIGHT
NORTHERN WATERS AND REMAINDER OF WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NRLY
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE WITH CAA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FT FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THEN BUILD TO 4-6 FT
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY THEN BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COLD ADVECTION/NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1010 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
AREA RADARS DEPICT LIGHT ECHOES MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE 12Z KBIS SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST LAYER
BETWEEN 750MB-600MB...WITH A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 750MB.
THINK MOST...IF NOT ALL...THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. STILL...THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ARE
LOCATED OVER BOTTINEAU...ROLETTE...AND PIERCE COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR
THAT AREA.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK CAPE (~150 J/KG)...ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN NON-SEVERE.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SNOW AND WIND ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE 06Z MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WEAKER WITH THE
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT UNTIL THE 12Z MODEL RUNS
COME IN BEFORE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR BLOWING SNOW. THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS TRACKING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE
BACK EDGE HAS CLEARED THIS AREA. VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA RADARS
MOST LIKELY HITTING ON MID LEVEL CLOUDS. STRONGER RETURNS JUST
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. 09Z
HRRR AND 10Z RUC INDICATE THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED AREA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY WHEN
BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE UPDATE
DEALT MAINLY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING AND DROPPING POPS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER
THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SNOW AMOUNTS...AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AROUND IDAHO/MONTANA/ALBERTA.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE STATE. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW/FRONT SHOULD BE SITUATED NEAR
MINOT/BISMARCK/DEVILS LAKE/JAMESTOWN AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES AROUND 200 J/KG ARE FORECAST BY THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS. THUS
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DAY 1 SPC GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK TODAY IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT
OF YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...COLD AIR THAT WILL ORIGINATE ALONG
THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE. RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH AROUND 6-HR 14MB
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE...IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES OVER THE STATE FRIDAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW
SHOULD MAINLY BE OF THE "WET SNOW" TYPE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON - WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND HIGHER ACCUMULATING SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM
RENVILLE/WARD/MCLEAN COUNTIES AND EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
- COORDINATED WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE AND THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES EAST TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. PATCHY TO MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ANTICIPATED
NORTHWEST WINDS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...WITH A
WINDY...DAMP...AND COLDER DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO
MORE WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF
SPRING. AFTER A BOUT OF SNOW AND WIND IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A
PIECE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A 1036-1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PROGGED OVER CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION ON SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WE COULD SEE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND COLD.
A CLIPPER SLIDING DOWN A BUILDING WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON WINDS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT WINDS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD AIR WILL REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. THEN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AFT 18Z AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD THROUGH 02Z-06Z...WITH A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. -SHRA LIKELY AFT
18Z. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT LOW PROBABILITY PRECLUDES INCLUSION IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. AFT 02Z-06Z RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
856 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
DENSE FOG HAS EXPANDED EAST OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY...AND WILL
EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE EAST ACCORDINGLY. NOT SURE
HOW LONG THIS DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE...BUT IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF
BREAKING APART. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HAS LOW VSBY THROUGH 16Z-
18Z...SO WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z (AND WILL CANCEL EARLY
IF NEEDED).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A NARROW PORTION OF NW MN
JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE BY
MID MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD TRENDS A BIT BUT OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM/RELATED HAZARDS
AND TEMPERATURES. NAM/ECMWF/GEM VERY CLOSE WITH SURFACE LOW TRACK
WITH GFS A TAD FARTHER SOUTH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS MAJORITY NORTHERN
SOLUTION.
IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
UNDER SKC/LIGHT WINDS TO TODAYS MELT. SO FAR DENSE FOG IS ISOLD
AND HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT ANTICIPATED. FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY SURFACE LOW OVER FAR N
CENTRAL MT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL PROPAGATE ESE INTO CENTRAL ND BY EVENING. WITH MILD
START AND WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT/ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. AS LOW APPROACHES COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA ALONG AND
AHEAD OF NW- SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY. SHOWALTERS APPROACH ZERO
HOWEVER HARD TO FIND ANY CAPE SO LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT BUT ITS
POSSIBLE.
SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS CENTRAL FA OVERNIGHT WITH 850MB LOW TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES INCREASE TO
BETTER THAN A HALF INCH AND RESPECTABLE TROWAL SETTING UP ACROSS N
MN INTO NE ND. WITH WAVE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY COMPACT BUT ROBUST
COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER SNOW BANDS SET UP. INITIALLY WILL LIKELY
SEE WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCH LOCALLY MORE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM NORTHERN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MN. AFTER
MIDNIGHT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW FA AFFECTING EASTERN ND
BY MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH REMAINDER OF FA FRIDAY MORNING AS
LOW SHIFTS EAST. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH DEFORMATION SNOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE FA DURING THE MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. ACCOMPANYING THE COLD ADVECTION 925MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 TO 40+ KNOTS. NOT SURE ON BLSN
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA AS SNOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY WET WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTION ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
MORE SNOW DID FALL. WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND EVENTUAL WIND
HAVE UPGRADED WATCH TO A WARNING FROM THE NORTHERN VALLEY EASTWARD
WITH A BUFFERING ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND LINGER SNOW
DIMINISHES. ALTHOUGH SOME MIXING EXPECTED STEADY COLD ADVECTION
AND FRESH SNOW SHOULD DROP MINIMUMS MOST AREAS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY DRY BUT UNSEASONALLY COLD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE NIGHTIME LOWS AND MINIMUMS BLO ZERO OVER
FRESH SNOW AREAS.
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS CANADA
WITH LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER AK AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/EASTERN PACIFIC DOES SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 84 HOURS. THE ECMWF BECOMES FASTER WITH THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
GFS HAS BEEN SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH FARTHER WEST OVER THE COUPLE
MODEL RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHIFT TROUGH FASTER AND FARTHER
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.
WILL LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY FOR MON AND LOWER
POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR MON NIGHT.
ESSENTIALLY LITTLE OR NO CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
DENSE FOG AFFECTING AREAS FROM MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS. IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING. FARTHER WEST VFR CIGS SPREADING EAST. AT THIS POINT FEEL
ANY RASN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028>030-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR NDZ008-016-027.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004-
007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR MNZ023-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR MNZ002-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013>015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR MNZ006-009-016-017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS TRACKING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE
BACK EDGE HAS CLEARED THIS AREA. VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA RADARS
MOST LIKELY HITTING ON MID LEVEL CLOUDS. STRONGER RETURNS JUST
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. 09Z
HRRR AND 10Z RUC INDICATE THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED AREA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY WHEN
BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE UPDATE
DEALT MAINLY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING AND DROPPING POPS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER
THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SNOW AMOUNTS...AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AROUND IDAHO/MONTANA/ALBERTA.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE STATE. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW/FRONT SHOULD BE SITUATED NEAR
MINOT/BISMARCK/DEVILS LAKE/JAMESTOWN AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES AROUND 200 J/KG ARE FORECAST BY THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS. THUS
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DAY 1 SPC GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK TODAY IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT
OF YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...COLD AIR THAT WILL ORIGINATE ALONG
THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE. RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH AROUND 6-HR 14MB
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE...IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES OVER THE STATE FRIDAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW
SHOULD MAINLY BE OF THE "WET SNOW" TYPE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON - WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND HIGHER ACCUMULATING SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM
RENVILLE/WARD/MCLEAN COUNTIES AND EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
- COORDINATED WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE AND THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES EAST TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. PATCHY TO MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ANTICIPATED
NORTHWEST WINDS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...WITH A
WINDY...DAMP...AND COLDER DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO
MORE WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF
SPRING. AFTER A BOUT OF SNOW AND WIND IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A
PIECE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A 1036-1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PROGGED OVER CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION ON SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WE COULD SEE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND COLD.
A CLIPPER SLIDING DOWN A BUILDING WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON WINDS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT WINDS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD AIR WILL REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. THEN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AFT 18Z AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD THROUGH 02Z-06Z...WITH A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY
LATE THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. -SHRA LIKELY AFT
18Z. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT LOW PROBABILITY PRECLUDES INCLUSION IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. AFT 02Z--06Z RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER UNAMPLIFIED AND
GENERALLY BENIGN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. MAIN FEATURE
OF NOTE IS AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH
PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH HAS SOME INFLUENCE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...HOWEVER
THE FLOW BECOMES CLOSE TO ZONAL IN NATURE BY THE TIME YOU REACH THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A
DRY PROFILE THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF THE TROP. ONLY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH 900MB...WITH A SHARP
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ABOVE THIS LEVEL.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL WHILE A
WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ACROSS
GA/CAROLINAS. THIS FRONT WILL NEVER MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION AS IT
WASHOUT OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AND IS
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
SCT-BKN CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK AS EAST COAST AND WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZES CLEAR THE SKIES IN THEIR WAKE NEAR THE COAST...AND THE
INTERIOR BEGINS TO MIX OUT ABOVE THE LAYER OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
WOULD EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A QUIET AND DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S NORTH...AND MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER
60S SOUTH. SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT...
HOWEVER THE SREF IS NOW LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
THINK IT WILL NEITHER BE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD AS WE SAW THIS PAST
MORNING.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
A VERY PLEASANT FRIDAY TO END OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A DRY COLUMN AND NO SYNOPTIC FORCING TO SPEAK OF
SHOULD KEEP OUR FORECAST RAIN FREE. ONLY CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST
FOR FIRE WEATHER AND AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF ANY SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. SEA-BREEZE SHOULD NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED ON FRIDAY DUE TO A STEADY 10-14 KNOTS OF SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 950-925MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP
ANY SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT FEEBLE AND PINNED CLOSE TO THE
COAST...DESPITE THE EFFICIENT TERRESTRIAL HEATING. WE BEGIN TO SEE
THE BEGINNINGS OF A PROCESS TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN BACK UP DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT RATHER WARM
REGION-WIDE.
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED SYNOPTIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER GENERALLY QUIET FOR SATURDAY AS WELL. THE BETTER
COLUMN MOISTURE AND SOME SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE INLAND LATE IN THE
DAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF IN NATURE WITH THE BEST
CHANCES APPEARING TO BE OVER POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...A BIT MORE HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR...AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AT MANY SPOTS. A SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
KEEP THE BEACHES IN THE 70S WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RELATIVELY
COOLER SHELF WATERS.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW IS ALOFT TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...AS SEEN IN BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...WITH
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
DROPPING OFF ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL COOL DOWN BY A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 07Z THEN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WITH LOCAL IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR AT LAL AND PGD TERMINALS BY 09Z.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AS A DRY FRONT
APPROACHES THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE GETS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LIMITS.
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF AFTERNOON SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF AREAL RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK
TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 61 80 66 78 / 10 0 0 20
FMY 64 84 66 85 / 0 10 0 20
GIF 63 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 30
SRQ 60 79 64 75 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 50 82 60 82 / 0 0 10 20
SPG 64 80 67 78 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
AVIATION...JILLSON
LONG TERM...CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER TODAY FOLLOWED BY
HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE PHASE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND
COMPLICATED FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE DAY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS DID FINE HERE BUT HAVE TO GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE
TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT. THE NEWEST ECMWF WAS CATCHING THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD THE BEST. THE LATEST RUC IS
MATCHING THE ECMWF WHICH GIVES GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION.
THE GFS WAS DOING BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THAN THE
SREF AND ECMWF.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION.
COMPLICATED SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND PATTERN FOR TODAY. THIS IS MADE
POSSIBLE BY A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FOLLOWED BY A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AS A NEW OR RESTRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A LOT OF DOWNWARD MOTION TODAY WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WINDS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. PER
THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR THIS SCENARIO THAT WINDS USUALLY
END UP BEING LIGHTER. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
ECMWF WHICH IS BEING VERY WELL SUPPORTED BY THE RUC/HRRR. THIS WIND
FORECAST HAS IMPLICATIONS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST WHICH WILL
BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOING
BY WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES...MADE
ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES AND NWP HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE SURFACE/2
METER GUIDANCE. KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE WILL GET BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETS REMAIN WELL
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A WEAKER
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY DROP TO NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER AROUND UNTIL
VERY LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE IN THE FAR NORTH INCREASES
AS LIFT DOES GET CLOSER TO THERE. LEFT THE THIN SLIVER OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE IN NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH
THE NEW GUIDANCE.
DURING THE DAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO THICKEN. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL MAKE FOR COOLER MAXES. AGAIN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
GUIDANCE AS TO HOW COOL TO MAKE IT. TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER
2 METER/SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BEGINS AFFECTING THE
AREA...MAINLY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST HALF DURING THE MORNING. THAT
LIFT GETS STRONGER AS IT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE GENERAL LAYOUT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
INCREASING JET LIFT...DID INCREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOW THE QUESTION OF PHASE BEGINS. MODELS ARE COMING IN COOLER FOR
THE MAXES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THAT DOES MAKE SENSE
SINCE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND
CONTINUES/INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. SO LOWERED MAXES IN THE NORTHERN HALF INTO THE 30S.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND SOUNDING PROFILES...CONTINUED A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THROUGH THE DAY. IF TEMPERATURES COOL ANY FASTER...THEN THE PHASE
MAY STAY ALL SNOW. LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BUT AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN AFFECTED BY THIS
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT TO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. NEWER MODEL RUN LOOKS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING OUT THE LIFT. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT POPS
IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. LEFT THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ALONE FOR THE
NIGHT PERIOD SINCE THIS NEW GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT IT.
THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY PROVIDING
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE HELP FOR THE PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR ADVECTION
ORIGINATING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL SNOW.
ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY INHIBIT ACCUMULATION
INITIALLY BUT THINK IT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT FACTOR. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...HIGHEST IN EASTERN
COLORADO. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED AT AROUND 15KT AND
GUSTS TO 25KTS...ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY MORNING WITH A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
MORE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW THAT WILL BRING
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL PROBABLY BE
LESS THAN AN INCH.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY...BUT IT QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN
AND IS REPLACED BY FAST ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AROUND THURSDAY
AND MIGHT BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN DUE
TO WARMER TEMPERATURES...STILL NO THUNDER AS INSTABILITY STAYS
WELL TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAKING WIND SHIFTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THE TAFS. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OVER BOTH TERMINALS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. KGLD WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS WHILE KMCK
COULD SEE GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE EARLY EVENING TOWARDS SUNSET AND WILL
PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AROUND 07Z AND 08Z TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS. NORTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TOMORROW AS A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
OVER THE TERMINALS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1134 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER TODAY FOLLOWED BY
HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE PHASE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND
COMPLICATED FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE DAY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS DID FINE HERE BUT HAVE TO GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE
TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT. THE NEWEST ECMWF WAS CATCHING THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD THE BEST. THE LATEST RUC IS
MATCHING THE ECMWF WHICH GIVES GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION.
THE GFS WAS DOING BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THAN THE
SREF AND ECMWF.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION.
COMPLICATED SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND PATTERN FOR TODAY. THIS IS MADE
POSSIBLE BY A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FOLLOWED BY A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AS A NEW OR RESTRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A LOT OF DOWNWARD MOTION TODAY WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WINDS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. PER
THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR THIS SCENARIO THAT WINDS USUALLY
END UP BEING LIGHTER. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
ECMWF WHICH IS BEING VERY WELL SUPPORTED BY THE RUC/HRRR. THIS WIND
FORECAST HAS IMPLICATIONS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST WHICH WILL
BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOING
BY WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES...MADE
ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES AND NWP HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE SURFACE/2
METER GUIDANCE. KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE WILL GET BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETS REMAIN WELL
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A WEAKER
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY DROP TO NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER AROUND UNTIL
VERY LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE IN THE FAR NORTH INCREASES
AS LIFT DOES GET CLOSER TO THERE. LEFT THE THIN SLIVER OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE IN NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH
THE NEW GUIDANCE.
DURING THE DAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO THICKEN. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL MAKE FOR COOLER MAXES. AGAIN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
GUIDANCE AS TO HOW COOL TO MAKE IT. TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER
2 METER/SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BEGINS AFFECTING THE
AREA...MAINLY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST HALF DURING THE MORNING. THAT
LIFT GETS STRONGER AS IT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE GENERAL LAYOUT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
INCREASING JET LIFT...DID INCREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOW THE QUESTION OF PHASE BEGINS. MODELS ARE COMING IN COOLER FOR
THE MAXES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THAT DOES MAKE SENSE
SINCE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND
CONTINUES/INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. SO LOWERED MAXES IN THE NORTHERN HALF INTO THE 30S.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND SOUNDING PROFILES...CONTINUED A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THROUGH THE DAY. IF TEMPERATURES COOL ANY FASTER...THEN THE PHASE
MAY STAY ALL SNOW. LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BUT AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN AFFECTED BY THIS
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT TO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. NEWER MODEL RUN LOOKS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING OUT THE LIFT. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT POPS
IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. LEFT THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ALONE FOR THE
NIGHT PERIOD SINCE THIS NEW GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT IT.
THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATES. WITH SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOW PRECIP. CHANCES FOR
THE DAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE
AREA...ONLY WARMING HIGHS TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER WARMER AIR
MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH PREVENTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AM LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP. CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH AS MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
THERE WILL BE TO WORK WITH AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. IN ADDITION
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH THE TRI-STATE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYNOPTIC LIFT OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR
WEST THE WARMER AIR WILL BE PUSHED BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA
AND HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE HIGHS WILL BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...RAISING TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAKING WIND SHIFTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THE TAFS. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OVER BOTH TERMINALS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. KGLD WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS WHILE KMCK
COULD SEE GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE EARLY EVENING TOWARDS SUNSET AND WILL
PICK UP AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AROUND 07Z AND 08Z TONIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS. NORTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TOMORROW AS A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
OVER THE TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...MAKING THE DURATION OF
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA QUESTIONABLE. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN PORTIONS...MAINLY
GRAHAM...NORTON...AND DECATUR COUNTY KANSAS AND RED WILLOW COUNTY
NEBRASKA...OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
15% OVER THAT AREA WHEN THE WINDS INITIALLY PICK UP DROPPING BELOW
15% AN HOUR OR SO AFTER THE WINDS INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...THIS
AREA LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE 3 HOUR DURATION REQUIRED TO
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...DO THINK THAT THIS AREA
WILL SEE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER BASED ON THE WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WAS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CWA...MAINLY CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTY COLORADO. JUST BEHIND
THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL BELOW 15%. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS BECOME BREEZY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE NEAR SUNSET. THEREFORE...THE 3 HOUR
DURATION BECOMES THE PROBLEM AGAIN FOR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH...THINK THAT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE THERE FOR A MENTION
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...ALW
FIRE WEATHER...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1104 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER TODAY FOLLOWED BY
HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE PHASE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND
COMPLICATED FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA. A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE DAY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS DID FINE HERE BUT HAVE TO GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE
TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT. THE NEWEST ECMWF WAS CATCHING THE
SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD THE BEST. THE LATEST RUC IS
MATCHING THE ECMWF WHICH GIVES GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION.
THE GFS WAS DOING BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD THAN THE
SREF AND ECMWF.
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION.
COMPLICATED SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND PATTERN FOR TODAY. THIS IS MADE
POSSIBLE BY A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FOLLOWED BY A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AS A NEW OR RESTRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A LOT OF DOWNWARD MOTION TODAY WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WINDS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. PER
THIS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR THIS SCENARIO THAT WINDS USUALLY
END UP BEING LIGHTER. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
ECMWF WHICH IS BEING VERY WELL SUPPORTED BY THE RUC/HRRR. THIS WIND
FORECAST HAS IMPLICATIONS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST WHICH WILL
BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GOING
BY WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND EXPECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES...MADE
ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES AND NWP HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE SURFACE/2
METER GUIDANCE. KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE WILL GET BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JETS REMAIN WELL
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A WEAKER
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MAY DROP TO NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A DEEP DRY LAYER AROUND UNTIL
VERY LATE TONIGHT. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE IN THE FAR NORTH INCREASES
AS LIFT DOES GET CLOSER TO THERE. LEFT THE THIN SLIVER OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE IN NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH
THE NEW GUIDANCE.
DURING THE DAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO THICKEN. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL MAKE FOR COOLER MAXES. AGAIN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
GUIDANCE AS TO HOW COOL TO MAKE IT. TENDED TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER
2 METER/SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BEGINS AFFECTING THE
AREA...MAINLY THE NORTH/NORTHWEST HALF DURING THE MORNING. THAT
LIFT GETS STRONGER AS IT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE GENERAL LAYOUT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
INCREASING JET LIFT...DID INCREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOW THE QUESTION OF PHASE BEGINS. MODELS ARE COMING IN COOLER FOR
THE MAXES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THAT DOES MAKE SENSE
SINCE CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND LOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND
CONTINUES/INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. SO LOWERED MAXES IN THE NORTHERN HALF INTO THE 30S.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND SOUNDING PROFILES...CONTINUED A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THROUGH THE DAY. IF TEMPERATURES COOL ANY FASTER...THEN THE PHASE
MAY STAY ALL SNOW. LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BUT AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN AFFECTED BY THIS
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT TO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. NEWER MODEL RUN LOOKS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING OUT THE LIFT. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT POPS
IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. LEFT THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ALONE FOR THE
NIGHT PERIOD SINCE THIS NEW GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT IT.
THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATES. WITH SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOW PRECIP. CHANCES FOR
THE DAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE
AREA...ONLY WARMING HIGHS TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER WARMER AIR
MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH PREVENTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AM LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP. CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TROUGH AS MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
THERE WILL BE TO WORK WITH AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. IN ADDITION
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH THE TRI-STATE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYNOPTIC LIFT OF THE TROUGH. BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR
WEST THE WARMER AIR WILL BE PUSHED BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA
AND HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE HIGHS WILL BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...RAISING TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AND SHIFTING TO DUE THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT THU MAR 20 2014
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...MAKING THE DURATION OF
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA QUESTIONABLE. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN PORTIONS...MAINLY
GRAHAM...NORTON...AND DECATUR COUNTY KANSAS AND RED WILLOW COUNTY
NEBRASKA...OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
15% OVER THAT AREA WHEN THE WINDS INITIALLY PICK UP DROPPING BELOW
15% AN HOUR OR SO AFTER THE WINDS INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...THIS
AREA LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE 3 HOUR DURATION REQUIRED TO
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...DO THINK THAT THIS AREA
WILL SEE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER BASED ON THE WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WAS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CWA...MAINLY CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTY COLORADO. JUST BEHIND
THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL BELOW 15%. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS BECOME BREEZY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE NEAR SUNSET. THEREFORE...THE 3 HOUR
DURATION BECOMES THE PROBLEM AGAIN FOR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
ALTHOUGH...THINK THAT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE THERE FOR A MENTION
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
511 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
507 PM UPDATE: 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED 2ND LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTY W/A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW.
THE 18Z RUC SHOWED DECENT FORCING W/THIS AREA OF PRECIP IN THE
MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP. METARS/REPORTS AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. THEREFORE,
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THAT BAND
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAN W/100% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS AND LEANED W/ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES BY 00Z(8 PM).
ADDED DRIZZLE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AS THE LATEST LAPS/RUC
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH CONTD WEAK TO MOD LLVL COLD ADVCN AND INFLUENCE OF A DEPARTING
UPPER TROF...CLDS AND SN SHWRS WILL HOLD ON ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF
THE FA FRI...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
SKIES THEN CLR ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT...WITH ONLY SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING VERY LATE FRI NGT...MSLY ACROSS WRN VLYS AS
THE SFC RIDGE APCHS ERLY SAT MORN. WE DID GO A LITTLE BLO GUIDANCE
LOW TEMPS ACROSS BROAD VLY LCTNS.
OTHERWISE...MODELS CONT TO INDICATE A SUB-SYNOPTIC S/W FROM THE
GREAT LKS BRINGING INCREASING CLDNSS SAT MORN AND MSLY LGT SNFL TO
THE REGION SAT AFTN INTO ERLY EVE. ATTM...THE AXIS OF GREATEST SNFL
SHOULD LINE UP ACROSS CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA...BUT EVE HERE AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVR THE FAR N
DUE TO LESSER EVENT QPF AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SLIGHTLY
LESSER EVEN QPF COMBINES WITH WITH LOWER SN RATIOS (DUE TO SFC TEMPS
AT OR JUST ABV FZG. ALTHOUGH SN WILL BEGIN OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABV FZG...LLVL EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND
DYNAMIC COOLING FROM COLD TEMPS ALF WILL RESULT IN PRECIP BEING ALL
SN IN THIS PTN OF THE FA...WITH TEMPS COOLING BY SEVERAL DEG F WITH
THE COMMENCEMENT OF SNFL.
FOLLOWING THE STEADY LGT SNFL ERLY SAT EVE...THE REGION WILL GO BACK
TO A NRN SN SHWR REGIME LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN...WITH SN SQLS A
POSSIBILITY SUN AFTN WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT FROM QB.
HIGH TEMPS WILL AVG BLO NORMAL DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LOWS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BLO NORMAL LOWS FRI NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND LINGER INTO
TUESDAY, LEADING TO DRY BUT COLD WEATHER. THE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CURRENT PROGS KEEP THIS
SYSTEM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL ON THE HANDLING OF
THIS SYSTEM, SO THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THESE
PERIODS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATE WEEK ONCE THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND THEN VFR
CONDITIONS BY MORNING. VFR ON FRI.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS FOR NRN TAF SITES IN BKN-OVC SC AND
OCNL SN SHWRS XPCTD FRI...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES MSLY LOW VFR. ALL
SITES IMPROVE TO UNLMTD VFR OVRNGT FRI...CONTG INTO SAT MORN.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES WILL BRING A SHORT PD OF IFR WITH LGT SNFL
SPCLY TO CNTRL AND DOWNEAST SITES SAT AFTN INTO EVE. OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR NRN TAF SITES LATE SAT NGT THRU SUN
AND LOW VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES....WITH ALL SITES VFR SUN NGT THRU
MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONT INTO FRI...AND AT
LEAST INTO FRI EVE BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE FRI NGT. LESS THEN SCA
CONDITIONS ARE SLATED FOR SAT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY
INCREASING BACK TO SCA LATER SUN INTO SUN NGT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS FOR THIS UPDATE AND USED MODEL BLENDED
WINDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
303 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLDER DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE NRN ZONES HAS WORKED TO STEEPEN
THE LLVL LAPSE RATES...GENERATING SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FINALLY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...MOISTURE IS DWINDLING AND A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE VISIBLE. WITH THE THICK CEILING MOST OF
THE DAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD NEAR STEADY. EVEN WITH THE MORE
POTENT SPRING SUN POKING THROUGH THE CLOUD DECK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ORIGINAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WONT BE REACHED. LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW THE LATEST LAMP TREND ACCORDINGLY.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN OFF TO THE WEST HAS GENERATED SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS INDIANA AND WRN OHIO EARLIER. THIS FEATURE WAS PICKED UP
EARLY BY THE LOCAL WRF AND THE RAP MODELS...AND IS DIAGNOSED TO
STREAM ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. DECIDED NOT TO CARRY ANY POPS WITH THIS
AS THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGER FURTHER SOUTH...AND THUS THE
DRIER SFC AIR WOULD BE HARDER TO OVERCOME. THIS CORRIDOR OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP FEED THE INITIAL PUSH OF THE WARMFRONT
S TO N ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW WHERE LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WILL FOCUS
ALONG THE FRONT. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP TO START THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG LLVL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN IN THE WARM SECTOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRI THROUGH EARLY SAT. LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL KEEP QPF LOW. WITH MOST MODEL SOLNS
HONING IN ON THE OVERALL TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...DECIDED TO BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE.
MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY. THE NAM IS BY FAR THE FURTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE
GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AND EAST. WITH MODEL SPREAD
SO LARGE...CANT HELP BUT TO TAKE THE LESS DETERMINISTIC APPROACH
AND KEEP LOW CHC POPS AND LOWER QPF ALONG THE SE RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. LONG TERM SETTING UP AS
ANOTHER COLD PERIOD...WITH THE COLDEST AIR MOVING IN BY THE END. A
SYSTEM TUESDAY MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...BUT A
LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS IS PROVIDING A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER
AIR AND TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS.
AFTER SUNSET SC CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCNL RSTRNS ARE PSBL FRI AND SAT AS LOW PRES CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES...OTRW GENL VFR EXPD.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1254 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
WARM AIR WILL SURGE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS OF
BATCHES OF CIRRUS DEVELOPING OFF THE TETONS IN WYOMING WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE LESS THAN FULL SUN CONDITIONS TODAY SO THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE VERY WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED RAP AND
50 PERCENT OF THE NAM...ECM AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. 50S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE SNOW FIELD
LOCATED ACROSS NCNTL NEB.
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 KTS WHICH MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR GUSTS
TO 45 MPH BUT OVER JUST A SMALL PART OF NCNTL NEB EAST OF VALENTINE
AS SHOWN BY THE NAM. THE MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT OR THE PACIFIC HIGH BUILDING IN AND THIS IS LIKELY THE
REASON FOR THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
ACTIVE PATTERN TO DEVELOP IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW USHER IN A SERIES OF OPEN SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY
UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY
PROVIDING FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND CAA. THE FRONT ARRIVES WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.
HOWEVER A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
AREA REVEAL STEEP LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH EXTEND INTO
A MARGINALLY SATURATED LOWER DENDRITIC LAYER. A FEW SHOWERY TYPE
SNOW/FLURRY BURSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY AS A 1040 MB HIGH SETTLES JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS ALLOWS FOR A UPSLOPE EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AS A
RESULT...LIGHT SNOW WILL FOCUS ALONG A MID-LEVEL FRONTOBAND AND
WITHIN A FAVORABLE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. ATTM...LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
UPGLIDE MAINLY TARGETING THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. ANY
ADDITIONAL QPF ON SUNDAY WOULD BE LIGHT...WITH NO MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS ANTICIPATED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. LONG RANGE MODELS ONCE AGAIN INDICATE STRONG
UPGLIDE ALONG THE 285K SURFACE INTO OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. GFS IS
MOST AMBITIOUS WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND DIGS THE WAVE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE EC WHICH MAINTAINS THE HEAVIEST QPF ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WILL
MAINTAIN SUB 40 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. BEYOND
MONDAY THE MODELS AGREE THAT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST ATOP THE HIGH
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE EAST AND WAA BUILDING
FROM THE WEST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS
PUSHING THE MID 50S FOR OUR SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BRIEFLY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS. A SECONDARY
SURGE OCCURS TOWARDS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 25
KTS...OR HIGHER...AFTER SUNRISE. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS DIRECTING A WARM SURGE OF DRY AIR THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40
MPH AS SHOWN BY THE NAM...MOSGUIDE...RAP AND HRRR MODELS. THE RAP
SHOWS THE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ACROSS WY MOVING WELL INTO THE
FCST AREA AND LOWERING TO LESS THAN 5F. THE STRONGEST WINDS INCREASE
MARKEDLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWS 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
NAM...ECM AND GEM REGIONAL MODELS FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST INCORPORATES MOISTENING OF THE DRY
AIR AS IT MOVES ACROSS RESIDUAL SNOW COVER IN WYOMING AND THE NEB
PANHANDLE.
THIS MAY BE A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST GIVEN THE SKILL OF THE RAP AND
HRRR MODELS THIS SPRING. THE FRENCHMAN BASIN AND CENTRAL SANDHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT THIS AFTN AND IT IS JUST A MATTER OF AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FOR CRITICAL FIRE LEVELS TO DEVELOP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LEESIDE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BECOMES ENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING
AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL AFFECT THE
AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM THU...A WEAK LEE TROUGH IS FINALLY LOCATED JUST TO
THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT
DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A VERY DRY
AIRMASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WIDE
TEMP/DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE NO FOG IS
ANTICIPATED. LOWS REGIONWIDE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM THU...MILDER WEATHER ON TAP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FRI/SAT AND AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT
EARLY SPRING DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER
(ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEAN IN PROXIMITY TO THE GULF STREAM). HIGHS
ON SATURDAY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD
ONTO A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. THERE IS ALSO STRONG CONSENSUS IN DEVELOPING A WEAK FRONTAL
WAVE AND AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY SO
EXPECT A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM THU...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER THEMES WILL SHIFT FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. COINCIDING WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NOW HAVE BEEN POINTING TO AN ANOMALOUS PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS -1.5 TO -2 SD AND 850 TEMPS OF -2SD WHICH
IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE MARCH.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEATHER FORECAST THEN BECOMES TRICKY WITH SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SE COAST MON NIGHT AND MOVING NE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
LATE MON NIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE...AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT PSBL WINTRY MIX AS PCPN BEGINS TO
CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN TUE AFTN AS THICKNESSES WARM. WILL HANDLE
WINTRY PRECIP AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW. MEASURABLE SNOW MAY
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA BUT NOT GOING TO BUY OFF ON SUCH AN ANOMALOUS
SOLUTION THAT FAR OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW 50 FOR MON-WED WHICH WILL BE AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS! A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL
BEGIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON THU.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM THU...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS...THEREFORE
NO FOG IS ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SATURDAY WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW
EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEAN IN PROXIMITY TO THE GULF STREAM. THERE
IS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AS COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM THU...SEAS HAVE GENERALLY SUBSIDED TO 4 TO 5 FT OFF
THE OUTER BANKS. THE OREGON INLET BUOY CONTINUES TO RUN JUST OVER
5 FT...HOWEVER THE WAVES ARE ALL SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS.
DESPITE BEING CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA...DO NOT SEE A NEED FOR
HEADLINES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KT OR LESS.
USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. FOR FRIDAY...THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT AS THE HIGH
PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM THU...LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE VA BORDER BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING 4 TO 6 FT SEAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW ITS CROSSING THE WATERS LEANING
TOWARDS THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE FRONT WILL START TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE SUNDAY MORNING...REACHING CAPE
LOOKOUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT OFF THE NC COAST. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A SURGE OF WIND
AND COOLER AIR ACROSS ALL THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
DECREASING TO 15 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS PERIOD
OF DECREASING WIND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER COASTAL STORM
STARTS TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OFF THE SC COAST TUESDAY MORNING PASSING
OFF THE NC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH END SMALL
CRAFT TO LOW END GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...JAO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
345 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...SHIFTING THE TRACK OF THE
MID-LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY SOUTH. THIS IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ARE SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM/GFS CONSENSUS. THE 15Z MPX HOPWRF
FOLLOWS THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VERY STRONG UPPER WAVE ABOUT TO
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS SYSTEM PROPAGATES EAST...700MB
TROUGH WILL BE NEAR DEVILS LAKE AROUND 06Z...THEN DEVELOP INTO A
700MB LOW NEAR GRAND FORKS (OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH) BY 09Z...THEN
BETWEEN BEMIDJI AND PARK RAPIDS BY 12Z...AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THEREAFTER. AS THIS UNFOLDS...EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...BECOMING HEAVIER AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS.
THE HEAVIEST QPF SHOULD OCCUR JUST NORTH OF THE 700MB LOW
TRACK...WHICH IS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND FORKS
TO BEMIDJI (OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TRACK). MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES QPF IN THIS
AREA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. WITHIN THE
HEAVIER QPF AREA...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MESOSCALE BANDING
(FRONTOGENESIS...PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCH...CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY)
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING QPF OF AN INCH OR
MORE (COULD EVEN BE ISOLD THUNDER). A BIG QUESTION IS LOW LEVEL
TEMPS...AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING. FOLLOWED THE RAP
925MB TEMPS FOR RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER (WHICH USUALLY DOES A
DECENT JOB IN THESE SITUATIONS)...AND USED A LOWER SNOW RATIO
(10:1-13:1) AS PER THE ROEBBER METHOD. THIS KEEPS THE SNOW AMOUNT
FORECAST SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. THE ONLY CHANGE
WILL BE TO MENTION LOCALIZED AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO A FOOT OF
SNOW IN THE WARNING AREA (LIKELY EAST OF THE VALLEY).
THE OTHER CONCERN IS THEN WIND POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT DIVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...WITH 925MB WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN ADIABATIC TO 925MB
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS STAYING AROUND
35 KNOTS (ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WIND
SPEEDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOT SURE HOW THESE WINDS
WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRESH SNOW. WITHOUT ANY FALLING
SNOW...GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE NEW SNOW ALONG
WITH THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...THE CANADIAN BLOWING MODEL
SUGGESTS WE NEED 35 TO 40 KNOTS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS (WHICH
SHOULD NOT OCCUR). COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE IT IS NEAR ZERO
VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE MORE PRONE OPEN AREAS...BUT NOT
CONSISTENTLY A BLIZZARD (THIS IS FOR AREAS CURRENTLY IN A WINTER
HEADLINE ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). FOR AREAS EXPECTING ONLY A
TRACE OF SNOWFALL (SOUTHEAST ND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
MN)...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY. IF THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS IS MORE THAN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...THIS COULD BE
CHANGED TO A WINTER WX ADVISORY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM ACTUALLY SETS UP...SMALL REFINEMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED TO HEADLINES AND SNOW AMOUNTS (FOR EXAMPLE...SNOW AMOUNTS
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED SOME). THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEM ARE DIFFICULT (P-TYPE AND TRACK ISSUES)...AND
MODELS OFTEN DO NOT HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE HANDLE UNTIL 6 HOURS
BEFOREHAND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLIER IN THE EVENING
MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD FOR LATE
MARCH WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS ACROSS NORTHEAST ND
INTO NORTHWEST MN.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ABOVE ZERO...WHICH ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW LATE MARCH NORMALS.
EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STILL BE
BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MOST PROMINENT
SHORT-WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP. BIGGER SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S UNTIL WED/THURS WHEN SOME 30S ARE POSSIBLE WITH
EASTWARD MOVING INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LAST OF THE FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MN TO DISSIPATE NO LATER THAN MID-AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED REGION-WIDE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
PRECIP WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00 UTC INITIALLY AS
RAIN...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SUB-FREEZING AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE WITH RAIN/SNOW AND
VISIBILITY COULD DROP AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE BY FRIDAY MORNING
IN BLOWING SNOW AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS.
18 UTC TAFS ARE A BEST FIRST GUESS CONCERNING TIMING AND PHASE OF
PRECIP...BUT UPDATES WILL BE NECESSARY ONCE PRECIP DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN ND.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ038-039-049-
052-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028>030-054.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR NDZ008-016-027.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ003-027-029-
030-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR MNZ023-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR MNZ002-022.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013>015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR MNZ006-009-016-017.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
108 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 50S OVER KDIK THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDATED THE AFTERNOON FORECAST TO INCREASE HIGHS
SOUTHWEST.
LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK CAPE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD
EAST PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST SNOW FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO COLLABORATE WITH GRAND
FORKS THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUST HEADLINES AS NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
AREA RADARS DEPICT LIGHT ECHOES MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE 12Z KBIS SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST LAYER
BETWEEN 750MB-600MB...WITH A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 750MB.
THINK MOST...IF NOT ALL...THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. STILL...THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ARE
LOCATED OVER BOTTINEAU...ROLETTE...AND PIERCE COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR
THAT AREA.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK CAPE (~150 J/KG)...ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN NON-SEVERE.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SNOW AND WIND ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE 06Z MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WEAKER WITH THE
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT UNTIL THE 12Z MODEL RUNS
COME IN BEFORE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR BLOWING SNOW. THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH
A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS TRACKING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE
BACK EDGE HAS CLEARED THIS AREA. VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA RADARS
MOST LIKELY HITTING ON MID LEVEL CLOUDS. STRONGER RETURNS JUST
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. 09Z
HRRR AND 10Z RUC INDICATE THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED AREA FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY WHEN
BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE UPDATE
DEALT MAINLY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING AND DROPPING POPS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER
THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SNOW AMOUNTS...AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AROUND IDAHO/MONTANA/ALBERTA.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW TO INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE STATE. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW/FRONT SHOULD BE SITUATED NEAR
MINOT/BISMARCK/DEVILS LAKE/JAMESTOWN AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES AROUND 200 J/KG ARE FORECAST BY THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS...CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS. THUS
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DAY 1 SPC GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK TODAY IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT
OF YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...COLD AIR THAT WILL ORIGINATE ALONG
THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE. RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH AROUND 6-HR 14MB
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE...IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES OVER THE STATE FRIDAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW
SHOULD MAINLY BE OF THE "WET SNOW" TYPE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON - WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND HIGHER ACCUMULATING SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM
RENVILLE/WARD/MCLEAN COUNTIES AND EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
- COORDINATED WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE AND THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES EAST TO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. PATCHY TO MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ANTICIPATED
NORTHWEST WINDS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 20S...WITH A
WINDY...DAMP...AND COLDER DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO
MORE WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF
SPRING. AFTER A BOUT OF SNOW AND WIND IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A
PIECE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A 1036-1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PROGGED OVER CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION ON SUNDAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WE COULD SEE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND COLD.
A CLIPPER SLIDING DOWN A BUILDING WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON WINDS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT WINDS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. COLD AIR WILL REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. THEN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
COMING OFF THE PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA WILL PRODUCE LIKELY CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT IN KMOT AND KISN. MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AC