Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/19/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
528 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THIS
MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING AND MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS WELL. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOWFALL WILL GET. THE
HIGH IS FAIRLY STRONG, AND DRY ENOUGH THAT IT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPRESS THE SNOW FROM GETTING MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN WHERE IT IS
NOW. WE`VE HAD SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GET SEVERAL MORE INCHES HERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE STRONGEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE BEING MAXED
NOW. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE, SO
SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS WE APPROACH THE RUSH
HOUR. HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
WHERE OUR ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE NOW. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY WHERE IT HAS BEEN SNOWING THE LONGEST AND HEAVIEST.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO AT LEAST
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE RUC AND HRRR ACTUALLY HAVE THE SNOW DISSIPATING
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. STILL, WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SNOW IN THE FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOWERING CHANCES AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS. HOWEVER,
WE USED A MAJORITY OF THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA WHERE THEY HAVE THE BETTER POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SOME
PEEKS OF SUN TODAY, AND THE COOLER MET MOS FOR THE REST OF THE ARE
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE ENDED BY THE TIME
THE EVENING ROLLS AROUND. WE MAY JUST HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS, WHERE SOME MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OUT OF CANADA, IT WILL KEEP FILTERING COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC ON
TUESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL NOSE DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND IT WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION
GRADUALLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
THEY SHOULD APPROACH NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR REGION ON
THURSDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING SHOWERS WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AIR MASS
SHOULD INFLUENCE OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES,
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AT LEAST THOSE AREAS NOT NEAR
THE OCEAN OR THE BAYS. THE SATURDAY FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY`S COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
KABE...THE SNOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF KABE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
KRDG AND KTTN...A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE 1200Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KPHL, KPNE AND KILG...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
ABOUT 1200Z OR 1300Z. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY
AFTER 1200Z OR 1300Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM ABOUT 1800Z OR 1900Z ONWARD.
KMIV AND KACY...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 1400Z,
LIFTING TO MVFR FOR THE PERIOD FROM AROUND 1400Z UNTIL 2000Z, THEN
VFR.
A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AT KRDG AND KABE.
FOR OUR REMAINING SIX TAF SITES INCLUDING KPHL, A NORTHEAST WIND
AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO 6
TO 10 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT....MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING AND MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA TODAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OFF OF
SANDY HOOK WAS DROPPED AND CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
WINDS NO LONGER ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS HERE.
THE GALE WARNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISH, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WAS EXTENDED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT
WERE RUNNING ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
DEPARTURES WILL NOT INCREASE TO MORE THAN ABOUT A FOOT TO A FOOT
AND A HALF ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. THE RESULTING WATER
LEVELS WOULD NOT REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. DEPARTURES
OF GREATER THAN A FOOT AND A HALF WOULD BE NEEDED AROUND THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE TODAY TO CAUSE A PROBLEM.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MORE SNOWFALL RECORDS TO FALL AND/OR CLIMBING HIGHER IN THE
SNOWFALL RECORD DEPARTMENT. ACY HAS THE BEST CHANCES:
DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR:
MARCH 17
ALLENTOWN 4.2 IN 1967
ATLANTIC CITY 1.6 IN 1965
PHILADELPHIA 3.5 IN 1892
WILMINGTON 2.4 IN 1965
IN PHILADELPHIA, WE HAVE HAD 13 SEPARATE CALENDAR DAYS IN WHICH
AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW HAS FALLEN THIS SEASON. WE HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE TO MAKE IT 15 CALENDAR DAYS WHICH WOULD GIVE THIS SEASON
SOLE POSSESSION OF SECOND PLACE. A MORE LIKELY 14 CALENDAR DAYS
WOULD TIE US WITH 1898-99 WHILE THE RECORD IS 17 CALENDAR DAYS IN
THE 1917-18 SEASON.
SPEAKING OF SECOND PLACE, AN ADDITIONAL 2.7 INCHES WOULD GIVE
PHILADELPHIA (62.9 INCHES CURRENTLY) THE SECOND SNOWIEST SEASON ON
RECORD, SURPASSING THE 65.5 INCHES DURING THE 1995-6 SEASON. THE
ALL-TIME RECORD IS 78.7 INCHES IN 2009-10. IT APPEARS SAFE THROUGH
THIS EVENT. IF 6.6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW WERE TO FALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK, IT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME EVER THERE HAVE BEEN FOUR DOUBLE
DIGIT MONTHS OF SNOWFALL IN ONE SEASON IN PHILADELPHIA.
ATLANTIC CITY (33.7 INCHES CURRENTLY) NEEDS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW TO CRACK THE TOP 10 SNOWIEST SEASONS ON RECORD
AND 8.7 ADDITIONAL INCHES TO SUPPLANT 2002-3 AS THE 5TH SNOWIEST.
THE MOST RECENT SNOWIEST WINTER WAS 2010-11 (RANKED 8TH) AT 38.0
INCHES. NUMERO UNO IS THE WINTER OF 2009-10 AT 58.1 INCHES.
WILMINGTON (52.9 INCHES CURRENTLY) NEEDS 3.1 ADDITIONAL INCHES TO
SUPPLANT 1995-6 AS THE SECOND SNOWIEST SEASON ON RECORD. THE
RECORD IS 72.8 INCHES DURING THE 2009-10 SEASON.
ALLENTOWN SEASONAL SNOWFALL RANKS. WE MIGHT NOT MOVE UP.
75.4 INCHES IN 1993-4
71.4 INCHES IN 1995-6
67.2 INCHES IN 1966-7
66.9 INCHES IN 2013-4
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ070-071-
101-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ016>018-
020>027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ012>015-
019.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431-451>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...GIGI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THIS
MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING AND MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS WELL. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOWFALL WILL GET. THE
HIGH IS FAIRLY STRONG, AND DRY ENOUGH THAT IT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPRESS THE SNOW FROM GETTING MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN WHERE IT IS
NOW. WE`VE HAD SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GET SEVERAL MORE INCHES HERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE STRONGEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE BEING MAXED
NOW. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE, SO
SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS WE APPROACH THE RUSH
HOUR. HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
WHERE OUR ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE NOW. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY WHERE IT HAS BEEN SNOWING THE LONGEST AND HEAVIEST.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO AT LEAST
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE RUC AND HRRR ACTUALLY HAVE THE SNOW DISSIPATING
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. STILL, WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SNOW IN THE FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOWERING CHANCES AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS. HOWEVER,
WE USED A MAJORITY OF THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA WHERE THEY HAVE THE BETTER POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SOME
PEEKS OF SUN TODAY, AND THE COOLER MET MOS FOR THE REST OF THE ARE
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE ENDED BY THE TIME
THE EVENING ROLLS AROUND. WE MAY JUST HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS, WHERE SOME MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OUT OF CANADA, IT WILL KEEP FILTERING COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE,
BRINGING COOL AND DRY WX. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST, BUT ATTM, ALL GUID (EXCEPT THE
NAM) KEEPS IT WELL OFF THE COAST.
BY TUE NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE UPR MS
VLY AND BRING A WMFNT THRU THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD TRIGGER
SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY ERLY WED. DEPENDING ON ONSET TIME, THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW OR A MIX FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W, BEFORE
A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN EVENT ON WED AS TEMPS RISE. THE CDFNT ASSOCD
WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. PRECIP CHCS WILL
INCREASE THRU THE DAY AHEAD OF FROPA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE SERN STATES AND KEEP
THINGS DRY FOR FRI BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AND
WHILE IT LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
N AND W FOR SNOW OR A MIX FRI NIGHT INTO ERLY SAT.
A LARGE HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FOR SUN.
TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NRML THEN RISE TO NR OR A BIT ABV
SEASONAL VALUES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDD PD.
THE VERNAL EQUINOX IS THURSDAY AT 1257 PM. HOPEFULLY MOTHER
NATURE CAN TAKE THE HINT!
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
KABE...THE SNOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF KABE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
KRDG AND KTTN...A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE 1200Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KPHL, KPNE AND KILG...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
ABOUT 1200Z OR 1300Z. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY
AFTER 1200Z OR 1300Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM ABOUT 1800Z OR 1900Z ONWARD.
KMIV AND KACY...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 1400Z,
LIFTING TO MVFR FOR THE PERIOD FROM AROUND 1400Z UNTIL 2000Z, THEN
VFR.
A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AT KRDG AND KABE.
FOR OUR REMAINING SIX TAF SITES INCLUDING KPHL, A NORTHEAST WIND
AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO 6
TO 10 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT....MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING AND MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA TODAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OFF OF
SANDY HOOK WAS DROPPED AND CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
WINDS NO LONGER ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS HERE.
THE GALE WARNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISH, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WAS EXTENDED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT
WERE RUNNING ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
DEPARTURES WILL NOT INCREASE TO MORE THAN ABOUT A FOOT TO A FOOT
AND A HALF ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. THE RESULTING WATER
LEVELS WOULD NOT REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. DEPARTURES
OF GREATER THAN A FOOT AND A HALF WOULD BE NEEDED AROUND THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE TODAY TO CAUSE A PROBLEM.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MORE SNOWFALL RECORDS TO FALL AND/OR CLIMBING HIGHER IN THE
SNOWFALL RECORD DEPARTMENT. ACY HAS THE BEST CHANCES:
DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR:
MARCH 17
ALLENTOWN 4.2 IN 1967
ATLANTIC CITY 1.6 IN 1965
PHILADELPHIA 3.5 IN 1892
WILMINGTON 2.4 IN 1965
IN PHILADELPHIA, WE HAVE HAD 13 SEPARATE CALENDAR DAYS IN WHICH
AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW HAS FALLEN THIS SEASON. WE HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE TO MAKE IT 15 CALENDAR DAYS WHICH WOULD GIVE THIS SEASON
SOLE POSSESSION OF SECOND PLACE. A MORE LIKELY 14 CALENDAR DAYS
WOULD TIE US WITH 1898-99 WHILE THE RECORD IS 17 CALENDAR DAYS IN
THE 1917-18 SEASON.
SPEAKING OF SECOND PLACE, AN ADDITIONAL 2.7 INCHES WOULD GIVE
PHILADELPHIA (62.9 INCHES CURRENTLY) THE SECOND SNOWIEST SEASON ON
RECORD, SURPASSING THE 65.5 INCHES DURING THE 1995-6 SEASON. THE
ALL-TIME RECORD IS 78.7 INCHES IN 2009-10. IT APPEARS SAFE THROUGH
THIS EVENT. IF 6.6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW WERE TO FALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK, IT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME EVER THERE HAVE BEEN FOUR DOUBLE
DIGIT MONTHS OF SNOWFALL IN ONE SEASON IN PHILADELPHIA.
ATLANTIC CITY (33.7 INCHES CURRENTLY) NEEDS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW TO CRACK THE TOP 10 SNOWIEST SEASONS ON RECORD
AND 8.7 ADDITIONAL INCHES TO SUPPLANT 2002-3 AS THE 5TH SNOWIEST.
THE MOST RECENT SNOWIEST WINTER WAS 2010-11 (RANKED 8TH) AT 38.0
INCHES. NUMERO UNO IS THE WINTER OF 2009-10 AT 58.1 INCHES.
WILMINGTON (52.9 INCHES CURRENTLY) NEEDS 3.1 ADDITIONAL INCHES TO
SUPPLANT 1995-6 AS THE SECOND SNOWIEST SEASON ON RECORD. THE
RECORD IS 72.8 INCHES DURING THE 2009-10 SEASON.
ALLENTOWN SEASONAL SNOWFALL RANKS. WE MIGHT NOT MOVE UP.
75.4 INCHES IN 1993-4
71.4 INCHES IN 1995-6
67.2 INCHES IN 1966-7
66.9 INCHES IN 2013-4
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ070-071-
101-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ016>018-
020>027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ012>015-
019.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431-451>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...GIGI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
934 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
THE ONLY UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE THE SKY COVERAGE AND SCALE BACK ON
THE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...TRAPPED BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WERE UNABLE TO DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MESOSCALE MODELS NOW SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS SPREADING BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND FILLING IN THE CURRENT HOLES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. OVERCAST SKIES WILL THUS PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH ELIMINATE THE FOG THREAT. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
IF LOW CLOUDS DO NOT FILL BACK IN THERE BUT THIS IS LOOKING MORE
AND MORE UNLIKELY. ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
OTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...IR SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS MVFR CIGS FILLING IN
ACRS SE GA AND OVER COASTAL WATERS...AND STARTING TO SPREAD INLAND
OVER ST.JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. HRRR CIG GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR
CIGS SPREADING S AND W ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 02Z
AND REMAINING IN PLACE THRU 13-14Z WED MORNING. OTHER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDINESS UNTIL AFTER 06Z
DESPITE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. 00Z TAFS FOLLOWED HRRR GUIDANCE
FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 03Z...BECOMING MVFR
AROUND 14Z AND CLEARING 15-16Z...A LITTLE SLOWER CLEARING THAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN LLVL EASTERLY FLOW. SHOWED LOWER VSBYS KGNV WHERE
BETTER CHANCE OF FOG THAN AT OTHER TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IN PLACE OVER THE OFFSHORE
ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL VERY GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 46 74 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 49 65 53 75 / 10 10 10 10
JAX 49 73 53 78 / 10 10 10 10
SGJ 53 69 55 74 / 10 10 10 10
GNV 50 77 50 80 / 10 10 10 10
OCF 53 78 51 80 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHULER/WOLF/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
605 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SLOWLY WEAKENED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE
CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. SO WILL LOWER THE POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
EVENING...BUT KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT BRINGING A LOW TO MID
LEVEL OF 50 KNOTS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS JET COULD HELP
REGENERATE THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS TO
THE AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AN INTERESTING EVENING/NIGHT IS AHEAD OF US. A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN US WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO MOVE APPROACH OUR AREA
THIS EVENING. THESE FEATURES WERE WELL DEPICTED BY ALL GUIDANCE
THIS MORNING. STRONG STORMS...A FEW MAY BY SEVERE...ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THE MAIN SOURCE OF ENERGY REMAINING ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THEREFORE EXPECT THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
NORTH FROM OUR AREA. DESPITE THAT...THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW A LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS OUR AREA AND UPPER LEVEL JET WITH ASSOCIATED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...THEREFORE DAMAGING STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS COULD
BE GENERATED WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
CONVERSELY...THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODEL RUNS
DEPICT A LESS ACTIVE LINE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER TRAVERSING THE MAINLAND TOWARD
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. BUT AFTER ANALYZING ALL THE
OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS AVAILABLE AT THIS POINT...STILL CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID-
WEEK PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE PENINSULA SOMETIME
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW FOR NOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION...
THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE ANTICIPATED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH
TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 00Z. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE OCCURRENCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN AT ANY TIME BUT IN TAF`S
ASSIGNED ALL TERMINALS VCTS AT 20Z AND CONTINUING AT 00Z. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.
WITH THAT IN MIND AND CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY...MOST OF THE
TAF`S END AT 00Z WITH VCTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE GREATEST THREAT ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE TIMING OF ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE LATE EVENING
AND OVER NIGHT.
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL QUICKLY TREND DOWN THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 81 68 82 / 70 40 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 81 69 82 / 70 40 10 10
MIAMI 75 82 69 83 / 70 40 10 10
NAPLES 70 79 61 84 / 60 10 0 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
334 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AN INTERESTING EVENING/NIGHT IS AHEAD OF US. A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN US WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO MOVE APPROACH OUR AREA
THIS EVENING. THESE FEATURES WERE WELL DEPICTED BY ALL GUIDANCE
THIS MORNING. STRONG STORMS...A FEW MAY BY SEVERE...ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THE MAIN SOURCE OF ENERGY REMAINING ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THEREFORE EXPECT THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
NORTH FROM OUR AREA. DESPITE THAT...THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW A LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS OUR AREA AND UPPER LEVEL JET WITH ASSOCIATED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...THEREFORE DAMAGING STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS COULD
BE GENERATED WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
CONVERSELY...THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODEL RUNS
DEPICT A LESS ACTIVE LINE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER TRAVERSING THE MAINLAND TOWARD
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. BUT AFTER ANALYZING ALL THE
OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS AVAILABLE AT THIS POINT...STILL CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID-
WEEK PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE PENINSULA SOMETIME
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW FOR NOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE ANTICIPATED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH
TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 00Z. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE OCCURRENCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN AT ANY TIME BUT IN TAF`S
ASSIGNED ALL TERMINALS VCTS AT 20Z AND CONTINUING AT 00Z. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.
WITH THAT IN MIND AND CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY...MOST OF THE
TAF`S END AT 00Z WITH VCTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE GREATEST THREAT ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE TIMING OF ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE LATE EVENING
AND OVER NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL QUICKLY TREND DOWN THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 81 68 82 / 70 40 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 81 69 82 / 70 40 10 10
MIAMI 75 82 69 83 / 70 40 10 10
NAPLES 70 79 61 84 / 80 10 0 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
450 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
...UPDATED MARINE SECTION TO INCLUDE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...
...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...
...ELEVATED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR AREA BEACHES...
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AND AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTED BY RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR OUR
WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT HAS ALMOST COMPLETED ITS
FRACTURE FROM THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. THERE ARE ACTUALLY
CURRENTLY TWO SEPARATE PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS FRACTURE. ONE IS
PIVOTING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...WHILE THE OTHER IS SLIDING
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO FORM AN ELONGATED
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME QUITE POTENT AS ITS AXIS
BECOMES ALIGNED MORE NORTH-SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
CURRENTLY WV IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD EXPANSE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF AND SE CONUS
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING
INTO THE NATURE COAST TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. A BROKEN LINE OF
STRONGER CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY SOUTHWEST BACK INTO
THE GULF. THIS LINE WILL BE THE INITIAL CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE CELLS QUICKLY
PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE CONVERGENCE FORCING THE STORMS
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE SETUP FOR
MUCH OF THE EARLY/MIDDLE MORNING HOURS...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES JUST NORTH OF I-4...TO CHANCE OR
EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH.
AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX FRONTAL ZONES WITH SEVERAL ANALYZED WAVES
ALONG IT EXTENDS FROM THE GA/CAROLINA COASTLINE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY
CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY...AND WILL NOT REALLY GET A GOOD
EASTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE PENINSULA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN RENEWED
SURFACE REFLECTION CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE SE CONUS COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT...WE ARE EXPERIENCING A WARM NIGHT FOR
MID MARCH WITH MOST SPOTS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF VERY RAINFALL. THE
MORNING WILL BE WETTEST FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD INTO THE
NATURE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A LARGE SWATH OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE EASTERN CONUS JET STRUCTURE. THE GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE QUITE TIGHT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL NORTH OF TAMPA BAY TO ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE JUST TO
THE SOUTH. IT WILL BE TAMPA BAY THAT IS THE TOUGHEST FORECAST AS TO
JUST WHERE THAT SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STORMS WILL SET UP. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE SETTLED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT THE TAMPA BAY/POLK COUNTY/NATURE COAST REGIONS SHOULD ALL
BE WET...WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO CREEP UP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH THE LATER WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID AND LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND RESULTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THE
DAY TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
THREAT FOR OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES WILL GENERALLY BE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF TODAY...WITH THE THREAT ENDING SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS THROUGH
THE REGION.
WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE
COAST THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING THIS A MORE PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THAN IS USUAL. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THE COVERAGE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL NECESSARILY BE GREATER...BUT JUST THAT THE TIME
SPAN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPPORTING SEVERE WEATHER
IS. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY/SUNCOAST REGION AND WORK ITS WAY
INLAND. AT THIS POINT IT WILL STILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MAIN POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO CATCH UP AS IT
RAPIDLY CROSSES THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE SWATH OF
IMPRESSIVE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...LIKELY
KEEPING THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING. THE PV ANOMALY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE FOLDS THE DYNAMIC TROP DOWN TO ALMOST
700MB PER GFS/ECMWF AND GIVES WAY TO AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL JET OF
90-100KTS APPROACHING THE FL WEST COAST THIS EVENING...AND A HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE STATE.
RENEWED/STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND INCREASED
FRONTOGENETICAL CONVERGENCE AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST MAY ADD TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES. HOWEVER...THIS
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO HELP TO GIVE THIS FRONT A FINAL PUSH AND EXIT
THE BOUNDARY AND SEVERE THREAT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GENERALLY BE GONE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT...LEFTOVER COLUMN MOISTURE LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR THE STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO FORCE MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE AXIS FINALLY EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
A MUCH MORE BENIGN FORECAST QUICKLY COMES INTO PLAY DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. AFTER JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EARLY MORNING
SHOWER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS BECOME MORE ZONAL (OR EVEN RIDGED IN
NATURE). DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT ALLOWING FOR MORE AND
MORE SUN THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OUR FORECAST LOOKS
FAIR AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS GENERAL PATTERN
LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES TO SPEAK OF.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - NEXT SUNDAY)...
FLOW ALOFT THE GULF REGION REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THU...PUSHING A DRY FRONT
THROUGH FL. THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS TO THE GULF
REGION AND CONTINUES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES BY TO THE NORTH ON SAT WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING NORTH FL. THIS FRONT CONTAINS MORE MOISTURE BUT THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES
WITH A DRY STABLE AND GENERALLY WARM AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES BEGIN ON
THE COOL SIDE THU MORNING BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
17/06Z-18/06Z: VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO PREVAILING MVFR...STARTING IN
THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
SHRA AND TSRA PUSH INTO TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ LATE MORNING...PGD/FMY/RSW
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. LCL IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA...REQUIRING TAF AMD LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. RATHER ROBUST SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE
AND VEER TO MORE S-SW.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXIT THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS BEING SEVERE
IN NATURE. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN BE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF SURFACE RIDGES BUILD INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD...AND THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE IN A WET PATTERN BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR BEFORE THE RAINFALL ARRIVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ARRIVING
INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...NO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 63 76 60 / 100 90 20 0
FMY 85 68 80 59 / 60 80 20 10
GIF 82 64 79 58 / 90 90 30 0
SRQ 79 65 74 57 / 100 90 20 0
BKV 78 59 78 51 / 100 90 20 0
SPG 79 64 75 63 / 100 90 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
POLK.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
430 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT...
...ELEVATED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR AREA BEACHES...
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AND AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTED BY RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR OUR
WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT HAS ALMOST COMPLETED ITS
FRACTURE FROM THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. THERE ARE ACTUALLY
CURRENTLY TWO SEPARATE PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS FRACTURE. ONE IS
PIVOTING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...WHILE THE OTHER IS SLIDING
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO FORM AN ELONGATED
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME QUITE POTENT AS ITS AXIS
BECOMES ALIGNED MORE NORTH-SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
CURRENTLY WV IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD EXPANSE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF AND SE CONUS
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING
INTO THE NATURE COAST TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. A BROKEN LINE OF
STRONGER CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY SOUTHWEST BACK INTO
THE GULF. THIS LINE WILL BE THE INITIAL CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE CELLS QUICKLY
PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE CONVERGENCE FORCING THE STORMS
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE SETUP FOR
MUCH OF THE EARLY/MIDDLE MORNING HOURS...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES JUST NORTH OF I-4...TO CHANCE OR
EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH.
AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX FRONTAL ZONES WITH SEVERAL ANALYZED WAVES
ALONG IT EXTENDS FROM THE GA/CAROLINA COASTLINE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY
CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY...AND WILL NOT REALLY GET A GOOD
EASTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE PENINSULA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN RENEWED
SURFACE REFLECTION CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE SE CONUS COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT...WE ARE EXPERIENCING A WARM NIGHT FOR
MID MARCH WITH MOST SPOTS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF VERY RAINFALL. THE
MORNING WILL BE WETTEST FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD INTO THE
NATURE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A LARGE SWATH OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE EASTERN CONUS JET STRUCTURE. THE GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE QUITE TIGHT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL NORTH OF TAMPA BAY TO ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE JUST TO
THE SOUTH. IT WILL BE TAMPA BAY THAT IS THE TOUGHEST FORECAST AS TO
JUST WHERE THAT SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STORMS WILL SET UP. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE SETTLED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT THE TAMPA BAY/POLK COUNTY/NATURE COAST REGIONS SHOULD ALL
BE WET...WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO CREEP UP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH THE LATER WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID AND LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND RESULTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THE
DAY TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
THREAT FOR OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES WILL GENERALLY BE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF TODAY...WITH THE THREAT ENDING SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS THROUGH
THE REGION.
WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE
COAST THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING THIS A MORE PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THAN IS USUAL. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THE COVERAGE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL NECESSARILY BE GREATER...BUT JUST THAT THE TIME
SPAN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPPORTING SEVERE WEATHER
IS. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY/SUNCOAST REGION AND WORK ITS WAY
INLAND. AT THIS POINT IT WILL STILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MAIN POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO CATCH UP AS IT
RAPIDLY CROSSES THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE SWATH OF
IMPRESSIVE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...LIKELY
KEEPING THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING. THE PV ANOMALY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE FOLDS THE DYNAMIC TROP DOWN TO ALMOST
700MB PER GFS/ECMWF AND GIVES WAY TO AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL JET OF
90-100KTS APPROACHING THE FL WEST COAST THIS EVENING...AND A HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE STATE.
RENEWED/STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND INCREASED
FRONTOGENETICAL CONVERGENCE AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST MAY ADD TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES. HOWEVER...THIS
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO HELP TO GIVE THIS FRONT A FINAL PUSH AND EXIT
THE BOUNDARY AND SEVERE THREAT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GENERALLY BE GONE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT...LEFTOVER COLUMN MOISTURE LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR THE STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO FORCE MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE AXIS FINALLY EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
A MUCH MORE BENIGN FORECAST QUICKLY COMES INTO PLAY DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. AFTER JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EARLY MORNING
SHOWER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS BECOME MORE ZONAL (OR EVEN RIDGED IN
NATURE). DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT ALLOWING FOR MORE AND
MORE SUN THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OUR FORECAST LOOKS
FAIR AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS GENERAL PATTERN
LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES TO SPEAK OF.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - NEXT SUNDAY)...
FLOW ALOFT THE GULF REGION REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THU...PUSHING A DRY FRONT
THROUGH FL. THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS TO THE GULF
REGION AND CONTINUES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES BY TO THE NORTH ON SAT WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING NORTH FL. THIS FRONT CONTAINS MORE MOISTURE BUT THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES
WITH A DRY STABLE AND GENERALLY WARM AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES BEGIN ON
THE COOL SIDE THU MORNING BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
17/06Z-18/06Z: VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO PREVAILING MVFR...STARTING IN
THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
SHRA AND TSRA PUSH INTO TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ LATE MORNING...PGD/FMY/RSW
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. LCL IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA...REQUIRING TAF AMD LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. RATHER ROBUST SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE
AND VEER TO MORE S-SW.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXIT THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS BEING
SEVERE IN NATURE. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN BE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF SURFACE RIDGES
BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD...AND THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE IN A WET PATTERN BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR BEFORE THE RAINFALL ARRIVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ARRIVING
INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...NO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 63 76 60 / 100 90 20 0
FMY 85 68 80 59 / 60 80 20 10
GIF 82 64 79 58 / 90 90 30 0
SRQ 79 65 74 57 / 100 90 20 0
BKV 78 59 78 51 / 100 90 20 0
SPG 79 64 75 63 / 100 90 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
POLK.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
445 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE
COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE
CHANGE SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE RAIN AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY
RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH FURTHER COOLING AND
THE NAM INDICATES POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS WARMER AND KEEPS SURFACE WET-BULB
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. WE BELIEVE THE WARMER GUIDANCE WILL
MORE LIKELY VERIFY WITH CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALSO...MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME MORE SHALLOW LATE TONIGHT
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE. WE FORECASTED JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH PART OF LANCASTER COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BECAUSE OF MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT AMOUNTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGING SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN A STRONG INVERSION WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS KEEP HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. THE CLOUDINESS MAY CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MIXING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LITTLE
CONVERGENCE THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD BE VERY LOW. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE
FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND MAY REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR AREA FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A POP
AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY...AND 20 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CIGS CONTINUE...WITH VARIABLE VSBYS. RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER THE FA 21Z ...WITH
HEAVIER RAIN MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL AREAS.
MODELS INDICATE THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL
LEAD TO IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. AS SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OUR EAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT AS
WELL...THOUGH DRIZZLE COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDINESS
WILL LINGER TUESDAY AND BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VSBYS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GRADUAL RISES IN CIGS POSSIBLE
AS WELL. CIG IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE TUE...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
231 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL
FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE RAIN AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY
RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH FURTHER COOLING AND
THE NAM INDICATES POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS WARMER AND KEEPS SURFACE WET-BULB
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. WE BELIEVE THE WARMER GUIDANCE WILL
MORE LIKELY VERIFY WITH CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALSO...MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME MORE SHALLOW LATE TONIGHT
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE. WE FORECASTED JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH PART OF LANCASTER COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BECAUSE OF MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT AMOUNTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGING SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN A STRONG INVERSION WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS KEEP HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. THE CLOUDINESS MAY CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MIXING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LITTLE
CONVERGENCE THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD BE VERY LOW. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE
FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND MAY REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR AREA FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A POP
AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY...AND 20 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CIGS CONTINUE...WITH VARIABLE VSBYS. RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE JUST PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER THE FA AT
17Z...HOWEVER LARGER AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR WEST OVER
GA WILL BE MOVING EAST AND AFFECTING AGS/DNL BY 18Z...AND OTHER
TERMINALS BY 19Z TO 20Z. MODELS INDICATE THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD
TO IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. AS SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OUR EAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT AS
WELL...THOUGH DRIZZLE COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDINESS
WILL LINGER TUESDAY AND BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VSBYS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GRADUAL RISES IN CIGS POSSIBLE
AS WELL. CIG IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE TUE...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
123 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL
FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE RAIN AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY
RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH FURTHER COOLING AND
THE NAM INDICATES POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS WARMER AND KEEPS SURFACE WET-BULB
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. WE BELIEVE THE WARMER GUIDANCE WILL
MORE LIKELY VERIFY WITH CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALSO...MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME MORE SHALLOW LATE TONIGHT
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGING SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN A STRONG INVERSION WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS KEEP HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. THE CLOUDINESS MAY CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MIXING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LITTLE
CONVERGENCE THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD BE VERY LOW. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE
FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND MAY REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR AREA FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A POP
AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY...AND 20 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS CONTINUE...WITH VARIABLE VSBYS. RADAR MOSIAC AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE JUST PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER THE FA AT
17Z...HOWEVER LARGER AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR WEST OVER
GA WILL BE MOVING EAST AND AFFECTING AGS/DNL BY 18Z...AND OTHER
TERMINALS BY 19Z TO 20Z. MODELS INDICATE THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD
TO IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. AS SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OUR EAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT AS
WELL...THOUGH DRIZZLE COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDINESS
WILL LINGER TUESDAY AND BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VSBYS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GRADUAL RISES IN CIGS POSSIBLE
AS WELL. CIG IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE TUE...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
922 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW
ENGLAND WILL PUSH COLD AIR SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH OF THE AREA HAD LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THE HRRR
AND RAP INDICATED COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT MOVING INTO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS
RIDGING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL
LIQUID WITH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AND TRACKS
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY EVENING...BUT POPS
DECREASE THROUGH THE THE NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL FROM AROUND AN INCH AT 00Z TO AROUND
0.60 BY 12Z TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN COLD IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TO AROUND 40 IN THE CSRA.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRY TO HINT AT SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
AND CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE
1KFT-5KFT LAYER AND TYPICALLY MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE WEDGE TOO
SOON. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE KEEPING HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS BUT VERY LITTLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY TO REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST THEN UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY SATURDAY.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING
850MB FLOW AIDING IN THE CONTINUING WARMING OF TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW WITH A 30-40 KNOT JET WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE. SATURDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A
COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT IS SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL IS NOW EAST OF ALL TERMINALS...WITH MAINLY
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAINFALL...OR MAINLY LIGHT DRIZZLE BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE MOVES IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1027 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL FORECAST BY RECENT STANDARDS AS A PROGRESSIVE
QUASIZONAL PATTERN WITH A FEW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL GOVERN THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
SATELLITE SHOWS NORTHWEST FRINGES OF LOW CLOUD DECK IS STARTING TO
THIN...SO CLOUDS SHOULD START BREAKING UP SOON IN THOSE AREAS. CLOUD
SHIELD FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS THICKER...SO IT MAY BE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THOSE AREAS.
WILL LOWER THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THE LONGEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
NO SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS...BASED ON 850 TEMPS/THICKNESSES AND UPSTREAM
NUMBERS...ACTUALLY DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB. THIS GIVES UPPER 30S FAR
NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWINGING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES MID
WEEK...BUT THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THUS...EXPECT ONLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
K INDICES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS UNLIKELY...ALTHOUGH A
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.
ON TEMPS...ADJUSTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY IN
STRONG PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION...AND ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE
PROGRESSION APPEARS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD ANTICIPATED AS A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER AIR WILL
BE DRAWN NORTH FOR FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
MIXING SHOULD ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING ON TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS
RATHER PALTRY AT THIS POINT.
DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK MAINLY INTO THE 40S BY
SUNDAY WITH SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS EVEN COOLER WEATHER COMING NEXT
WEEK. SPRING REMAINS ELUSIVE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
STRATUS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT
THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT COULD
PERSIST THROUGH 18Z BEFORE BREAKING IT UP. THUS KIND UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS CHANGE. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KLAF THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION HAS ENABLED MVFR STRATUS DECK TO EXPAND BACK NORTHWEST
TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE LOWER CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL MORNING AS RAP RH PROGS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL CLOSER
TO MIDDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH PERIODIC
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. E/NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5KTS AND BECOME VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
952 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL FORECAST BY RECENT STANDARDS AS A PROGRESSIVE
QUASIZONAL PATTERN WITH A FEW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL GOVERN THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
SATELLITE SHOWS NORTHWEST FRINGES OF LOW CLOUD DECK IS STARTING TO
THIN...SO CLOUDS SHOULD START BREAKING UP SOON IN THOSE AREAS. CLOUD
SHIELD FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS THICKER...SO IT MAY BE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THOSE AREAS.
WILL LOWER THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THE LONGEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
NO SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS...BASED ON 850 TEMPS/THICKNESSES AND UPSTREAM
NUMBERS...ACTUALLY DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB. THIS GIVES UPPER 30S FAR
NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWINGING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES MID
WEEK...BUT THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THUS...EXPECT ONLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
K INDICES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS UNLIKELY...ALTHOUGH A
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.
ON TEMPS...ADJUSTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY IN
STRONG PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION...AND ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE
PROGRESSION APPEARS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD ANTICIPATED AS A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER AIR WILL
BE DRAWN NORTH FOR FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
MIXING SHOULD ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING ON TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS
RATHER PALTRY AT THIS POINT.
DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK MAINLY INTO THE 40S BY
SUNDAY WITH SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS EVEN COOLER WEATHER COMING NEXT
WEEK. SPRING REMAINS ELUSIVE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KLAF THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION HAS ENABLED MVFR STRATUS DECK TO EXPAND BACK NORTHWEST
TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE LOWER CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL MORNING AS RAP RH PROGS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL CLOSER
TO MIDDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH PERIODIC
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. E/NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5KTS AND BECOME VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
654 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL FORECAST BY RECENT STANDARDS AS A PROGRESSIVE
QUASIZONAL PATTERN WITH A FEW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL GOVERN THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
NO SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS...BASED ON 850 TEMPS/THICKNESSES AND UPSTREAM
NUMBERS...ACTUALLY DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB. THIS GIVES UPPER 30S FAR
NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWINGING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES MID
WEEK...BUT THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THUS...EXPECT ONLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
K INDICES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS UNLIKELY...ALTHOUGH A
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.
ON TEMPS...ADJUSTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY IN
STRONG PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION...AND ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE
PROGRESSION APPEARS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD ANTICIPATED AS A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER AIR WILL
BE DRAWN NORTH FOR FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
MIXING SHOULD ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING ON TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS
RATHER PALTRY AT THIS POINT.
DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK MAINLY INTO THE 40S BY
SUNDAY WITH SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS EVEN COOLER WEATHER COMING NEXT
WEEK. SPRING REMAINS ELUSIVE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KLAF THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION HAS ENABLED MVFR STRATUS DECK TO EXPAND BACK NORTHWEST
TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE LOWER CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL MORNING AS RAP RH PROGS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL CLOSER
TO MIDDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH PERIODIC
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. E/NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5KTS AND BECOME VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
818 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE AREA AND ALL ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN DROPPED AN HOUR EARLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO
FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MADE SOME LARGE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST TO ADJUST WIND
SPEEDS DOWN AS WIDESPREAD WARNING CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
2 HOURS AND DESPITE THE WET SNOW...SIG BLOWING SNOW OBSERVED WHEN
GUSTS EXCEED 40 KTS AT KGLD. ALTHOUGH LARGE AREA OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING IN ITS
WAKE...RECENTLY OBSERVED VISIBILITIES AND OVERALL IMPACT LEADS ME
TO CHANGE AREA TO A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM HIGH WIND WARNING
THROUGH 03Z. SIG SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 455 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY/BLOWING SNOW CAUSING SOME LOW
VISIBILITIES IN SEVERAL AREAS...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THIS IN
CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING PER COORDINATION EARLIER TODAY AND NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. WHILE WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RISE AND VERY SPORADIC...STARTING TO SEE A LOT OF
CONVECTIVE TYPE SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEAR TERM MODELED SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WITH STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC IN THIS AREA...EXPECT STRONG
WINDS TO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AS OPPOSED TO A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND TYPE EVENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AT 19Z UPPER LOW CENTERED ON
TOP OF GOODLAND WITH STRONGEST SFC WIND GUSTS GENERALLY WEST OF A
LINE FROM FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON WHERE GUSTS IN OUR PART OF THE AREA
APPROACHING 50 MPH WHILE JUST OUTSIDE OF IT GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
BEING REPORTED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST REACHING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND 00Z THEN WEAKENING A BIT
AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. STRONGEST SFC WINDS
AND GUSTS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST BEHIND THE UPPER LOW SO
NO CHANGES TO HIGH WIND WARNING. 18Z RUC SHOWS 850-800MB WINDS
ACTUALLY INCREASING ON THE BACKSIDE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNSET OUT EAST
WHICH IS WHERE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST SO FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE.
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED BAND OF SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. AM EXPECTING THE WORST
CONDITIONS PRESENTLY IN EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE) BY
23Z CONTINUING EAST AND INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WILL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
UNDER QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
(WEST TO EAST).
WEDNESDAY...CLOUDINESS INCREASES A BIT AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOW 50S TO NEAR 60 (WEST TO
EAST).
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 50S. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
WINDS...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF OF OUR CWA AND SEND REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COOLER TEMPS INTO THE PLAINS. THESE QUICK MOVING FEATURES ARE ON
LESS THAN IDEAL TRACKS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE RUN-RUN ON EVOLUTION OF
THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES. BEST MODEL OVERLAP SEEMS TO BE ON PRECIP
CHANCES SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS WOULD STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND IN
THIS PATTERN/THIS RANGE I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS.
TEMPS SHOULD START OUT BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY (40S) BEFORE SEASONAL
TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY (50S). BY NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER
THE CWA BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE LATER
PERIODS CONSIDERING THE MODEL SPREAD/LACK OF CONTINUITY...SO
DECIDED AGAINST MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA HAVE CAUSED
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR KGLD AND KMCK...BUT SNOW SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNTIL
THEN...OVERCAST CEILINGS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT SURFACE FOG COULD DEVELOP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SATURATION FOR KGLD AND KMCK. KEPT VISIBILITIES MVFR AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY...BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
FOG UNDER A MILE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TOWARDS MID MORNING
FOR BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
620 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MADE SOME LARGE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST TO ADJUST WIND
SPEEDS DOWN AS WIDESPREAD WARNING CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
2 HOURS AND DESPITE THE WET SNOW...SIG BLOWING SNOW OBSERVED WHEN
GUSTS EXCEED 40 KTS AT KGLD. ALTHOUGH LARGE AREA OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING IN ITS
WAKE...RECENTLY OBSERVED VISIBILITIES AND OVERALL IMPACT LEADS ME
TO CHANGE AREA TO A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM HIGH WIND WARNING
THROUGH 03Z. SIG SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 455 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY/BLOWING SNOW CAUSING SOME LOW
VISIBILITIES IN SEVERAL AREAS...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THIS IN
CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING PER COORDINATION EARLIER TODAY AND NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. WHILE WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RISE AND VERY SPORADIC...STARTING TO SEE A LOT OF
CONVECTIVE TYPE SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEAR TERM MODELED SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WITH STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC IN THIS AREA...EXPECT STRONG
WINDS TO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AS OPPOSED TO A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND TYPE EVENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AT 19Z UPPER LOW CENTERED ON
TOP OF GOODLAND WITH STRONGEST SFC WIND GUSTS GENERALLY WEST OF A
LINE FROM FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON WHERE GUSTS IN OUR PART OF THE AREA
APPROACHING 50 MPH WHILE JUST OUTSIDE OF IT GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
BEING REPORTED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST REACHING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND 00Z THEN WEAKENING A BIT
AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. STRONGEST SFC WINDS
AND GUSTS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST BEHIND THE UPPER LOW SO
NO CHANGES TO HIGH WIND WARNING. 18Z RUC SHOWS 850-800MB WINDS
ACTUALLY INCREASING ON THE BACKSIDE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNSET OUT EAST
WHICH IS WHERE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST SO FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE.
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED BAND OF SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. AM EXPECTING THE WORST
CONDITIONS PRESENTLY IN EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE) BY
23Z CONTINUING EAST AND INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WILL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
UNDER QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
(WEST TO EAST).
WEDNESDAY...CLOUDINESS INCREASES A BIT AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOW 50S TO NEAR 60 (WEST TO
EAST).
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 50S. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
WINDS...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF OF OUR CWA AND SEND REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COOLER TEMPS INTO THE PLAINS. THESE QUICK MOVING FEATURES ARE ON
LESS THAN IDEAL TRACKS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE RUN-RUN ON EVOLUTION OF
THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES. BEST MODEL OVERLAP SEEMS TO BE ON PRECIP
CHANCES SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS WOULD STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND IN
THIS PATTERN/THIS RANGE I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS.
TEMPS SHOULD START OUT BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY (40S) BEFORE SEASONAL
TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY (50S). BY NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER
THE CWA BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE LATER
PERIODS CONSIDERING THE MODEL SPREAD/LACK OF CONTINUITY...SO
DECIDED AGAINST MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA HAVE CAUSED
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR KGLD AND KMCK...BUT SNOW SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNTIL
THEN...OVERCAST CEILINGS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT SURFACE FOG COULD DEVELOP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SATURATION FOR KGLD AND KMCK. KEPT VISIBILITIES MVFR AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY...BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
FOG UNDER A MILE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TOWARDS MID MORNING
FOR BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ027-041-042.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090-
091.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ092.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 455 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY/BLOWING SNOW CAUSING SOME LOW
VISIBILITIES IN SEVERAL AREAS...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THIS IN
CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING PER COORDINATION EARLIER TODAY AND NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. WHILE WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RISE AND VERY SPORADIC...STARTING TO SEE A LOT OF
CONVECTIVE TYPE SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEAR TERM MODELED SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WITH STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC IN THIS AREA...EXPECT STRONG
WINDS TO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AS OPPOSED TO A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND TYPE EVENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AT 19Z UPPER LOW CENTERED ON
TOP OF GOODLAND WITH STRONGEST SFC WIND GUSTS GENERALLY WEST OF A
LINE FROM FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON WHERE GUSTS IN OUR PART OF THE AREA
APPROACHING 50 MPH WHILE JUST OUTSIDE OF IT GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
BEING REPORTED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST REACHING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND 00Z THEN WEAKENING A BIT
AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. STRONGEST SFC WINDS
AND GUSTS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST BEHIND THE UPPER LOW SO
NO CHANGES TO HIGH WIND WARNING. 18Z RUC SHOWS 850-800MB WINDS
ACTUALLY INCREASING ON THE BACKSIDE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNSET OUT EAST
WHICH IS WHERE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST SO FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE.
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED BAND OF SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. AM EXPECTING THE WORST
CONDITIONS PRESENTLY IN EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE) BY
23Z CONTINUING EAST AND INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WILL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
UNDER QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
(WEST TO EAST).
WEDNESDAY...CLOUDINESS INCREASES A BIT AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOW 50S TO NEAR 60 (WEST TO
EAST).
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 50S. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
WINDS...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF OF OUR CWA AND SEND REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COOLER TEMPS INTO THE PLAINS. THESE QUICK MOVING FEATURES ARE ON
LESS THAN IDEAL TRACKS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE RUN-RUN ON EVOLUTION OF
THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES. BEST MODEL OVERLAP SEEMS TO BE ON PRECIP
CHANCES SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS WOULD STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND IN
THIS PATTERN/THIS RANGE I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS.
TEMPS SHOULD START OUT BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY (40S) BEFORE SEASONAL
TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY (50S). BY NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER
THE CWA BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE LATER
PERIODS CONSIDERING THE MODEL SPREAD/LACK OF CONTINUITY...SO
DECIDED AGAINST MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA HAVE CAUSED
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES FOR KGLD AND KMCK...BUT SNOW SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNTIL
THEN...OVERCAST CEILINGS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT SURFACE FOG COULD DEVELOP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SATURATION FOR KGLD AND KMCK. KEPT VISIBILITIES MVFR AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY...BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
FOG UNDER A MILE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TOWARDS MID MORNING
FOR BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-016.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
638 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2014
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
Models this morning are in good agreement with moving the upper
level trough east into central Kansas early this evening. The
better upper level dynamics will also begin to shift east as a
secondary surface boundary surges south across western Kansas
late this afternoon. As this boundary moves across southwest
Kansas, northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph will continue as low
level moisture increases. Given the timing of the exiting upper
level trough and increasing low level moisture will retain small
precipitation chances across north central Kansas early this
evening. Further south will keep an increase in clouds early this
evening but will not mention precipitation chances at this time.
Wind speeds across southeast Colorado earlier this afternoon have
on occasion approached high wind warning criteria. Visibilities
where these stronger winds were reported have been lowered to one
mile or less due to blowing dust. 12z NAM and 17z RAP indicated
the tightest surface pressure gradient along with the strongest
925mb to 850mb winds between 21z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday will be
near the Colorado border with the mean mixdown winds suggesting
sustained winds of near high wind warning criteria. Based on that
the models continue to suggest winds will be near High wind
warning criteria late today in far southwest Kansas and the 18z
wind speeds/gusts across southeast Colorado will continue the high
wind warning west of highway 83. Will also mention visibility
issues due to blowing dust. Further east will keep the wind
advisory going until 02z.
Surface ridge axis will then begin to build across western Kansas
towards 06z as the upper level trough moves from eastern Kansas
into Missouri. Given the cloud cover overnight along with wind
speeds of 10 to 15 mph the previous forecast still looks on track
with lows mainly in the mid to upper 20s
Westerly downslope flow will improve across western Kansas on
Wednesday with 925mb temperatures warmer around 6c from 00z
Wednesday to 00z Thursday. 850mb temperature trends over the same
time frame be +3c to +5c. Based on this warming trend and mostly
sunny conditions the highs mid week should easily rebound to near
60 degrees for much of western Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
Lee troughing will develop Thursday ahead of the next upper level
system entering the northern Rockies, leading to south winds and warmer
temperatures. After this system traverses the northern plains on
Friday, a cold front will pass through western Kansas in its wake,
leading to falling high temperatures into the 60s Friday and 50s
Saturday. As the cool air gets deeper by Saturday night, mid level
isentropic lift may result in some light rain or light snow,
especially over far southwestern Kansas. Temperatures Sunday will
still be seasonably cool, with highs in the lower 50s.
A slight warming trend can be expected Sunday (highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s) as a weak lee trough develops ahead of the next
upper level trough. This system will push yet another cold front
through western Kansas by later Monday, with a return of cooler than
average high and low temperatures by Monday night and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
Strong northwest winds of 25-45kt will gradually subside by 01-03Z
as the surface pressure gradient relaxes. Some IFR/MVFR cigs, with
some light rain and snow mixed, will also become VFR by 03Z as an
upper level trough moves east.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 60 32 71 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 24 60 32 70 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 26 59 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 25 61 32 72 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 28 59 30 70 / 30 0 0 0
P28 32 62 33 72 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-044>046-
064>066-077>081-087>090.
HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
954 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2014
Quick update for pops based on latest high-res models. Still think
isolated to perhaps scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible
during the morning hours, mainly over our southern Indiana counties.
Temps should be on track for the rest of the night, now that the
wind has become more steady across the area from the south and
southeast.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2014
Clouds have hung around for most of the day, with some sun peaking
through here and there this afternoon. Temperatures have reached the
upper 40s to low 50s as of this writing, with a little more warming
possible this afternoon.
For tonight and tomorrow the pressure gradient will strengthen as a
low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region. Southerly
winds will increase tonight and be quite gusty on Wednesday.
Sustained speeds of 15-20 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph are expected
Wednesday. Gusts may be a little stronger and approach Wind Advisory
criteria, but that will depend on whether or not the clouds clear.
Right now it appears low-level clouds will linger right on into
tomorrow afternoon, limiting full mixing. Will need to monitor this
in coming forecasts.
A cold front associated with this system will swing through on
Wednesday. Rain showers should edge into our western forecast area
late tonight and continuing pushing east through the morning hours
tomorrow. The best coverage would be across southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky, with less coverage farther south. There is just
enough elevated instability to warrant isolated thunder in the
forecast for late tonight and through the morning hours tomorrow.
Showers should exit east through the first half of the day.
As for temperatures, lows tonight will be on the warmer side with
increasing southerly winds and clouds ahead of the front. Expect
temps to only drop into the middle and upper 40s. Highs tomorrow
should top out in the middle 50s to around 60. Lows tomorrow night
should drop into the 30s under clearing skies. Depending on the
amount of rainfall we see with this frontal passage, which does not
look like much at this time, some fog may form by Thursday morning.
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2014
The forecast period looks to be rather dynamic as winter and spring
duke it out; spring trying to take over, winter holding on with it`s
last breath. We`ll start off the long term period with near normal
temperatures, rise well above normal by the end of the work week,
and then drop back off to near and below normal by next week.
In the upper levels, zonal flow will dominate throughout much of
this forecast period. Further down in the vertical extent of the
atmosphere, shortwaves will be traveling through the Ohio Valley.
Look for these to traverse on through Friday night - early Saturday,
and then again Monday night - early Tuesday. These both have
associated cold fronts with them at the surface with high pressure
in control in between these two systems. The first surface low
should remain well to the north of the region, tracking across the
Great Lakes region and stringing the front along with it. The second
low currently is progged to take a more southerly route but with
this system occurring late in the long-term period, look for this
forecast to change over the next few days as the models get a better
hold of how it will evolve. The next question with respect to
precipitation is how much moisture these systems will have to work
with. Should have a decent amount for Friday night through Saturday,
allowing for light rain showers to be scattered across much of the
forecast area. With lower confidence in the mentionable precip early
next week, have only gone with slight to chance PoPs, primarily
keeping much of the precip mention confined to the northern half of
the forecast area. Now here`s where winter fights to hold on: have
included snow wording in this forecast update as temperatures look
to be cold enough to support possible light snow. Looking at the 12Z
GFS sounding near the Louisville area for overnight Monday, the
thermal profile is certainly indicative of snow, we`ll just have to
keep an eye on this to see how it plays out. For now, have rain or
snow wording in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 730 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2014
Surface low pressure crossing the KS/MO border at this time will
head towards northern IL by daybreak Wednesday. Southerly winds
ahead of this low have allowed cigs to come up today, and starting
to see more breaks in the clouds as this moisture moves into a drier
layer aloft. Winds just above the surface will pick up the rest of
the night, going to 40-50 knots and creating some low-level wind
shear. Latest RAP forecast continues these strong winds even a
little past 12Z, so have continued the LLWS well into the morning
hours. Should see some scattered showers as that surface low drags a
cold front toward the region. Cannot rule out an elevated
thunderstorm around KSDF at 12Z, but chance is low enough to keep
out of the TAF for now. Winds will turn to westerly with the frontal
passage from west to east between 20 and 22Z Wednesday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJP
Long Term......lg
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
735 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2014
Clouds have hung around for most of the day, with some sun peaking
through here and there this afternoon. Temperatures have reached the
upper 40s to low 50s as of this writing, with a little more warming
possible this afternoon.
For tonight and tomorrow the pressure gradient will strengthen as a
low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region. Southerly
winds will increase tonight and be quite gusty on Wednesday.
Sustained speeds of 15-20 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph are expected
Wednesday. Gusts may be a little stronger and approach Wind Advisory
criteria, but that will depend on whether or not the clouds clear.
Right now it appears low-level clouds will linger right on into
tomorrow afternoon, limiting full mixing. Will need to monitor this
in coming forecasts.
A cold front associated with this system will swing through on
Wednesday. Rain showers should edge into our western forecast area
late tonight and continuing pushing east through the morning hours
tomorrow. The best coverage would be across southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky, with less coverage farther south. There is just
enough elevated instability to warrant isolated thunder in the
forecast for late tonight and through the morning hours tomorrow.
Showers should exit east through the first half of the day.
As for temperatures, lows tonight will be on the warmer side with
increasing southerly winds and clouds ahead of the front. Expect
temps to only drop into the middle and upper 40s. Highs tomorrow
should top out in the middle 50s to around 60. Lows tomorrow night
should drop into the 30s under clearing skies. Depending on the
amount of rainfall we see with this frontal passage, which does not
look like much at this time, some fog may form by Thursday morning.
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2014
The forecast period looks to be rather dynamic as winter and spring
duke it out; spring trying to take over, winter holding on with it`s
last breath. We`ll start off the long term period with near normal
temperatures, rise well above normal by the end of the work week,
and then drop back off to near and below normal by next week.
In the upper levels, zonal flow will dominate throughout much of
this forecast period. Further down in the vertical extent of the
atmosphere, shortwaves will be traveling through the Ohio Valley.
Look for these to traverse on through Friday night - early Saturday,
and then again Monday night - early Tuesday. These both have
associated cold fronts with them at the surface with high pressure
in control in between these two systems. The first surface low
should remain well to the north of the region, tracking across the
Great Lakes region and stringing the front along with it. The second
low currently is progged to take a more southerly route but with
this system occurring late in the long-term period, look for this
forecast to change over the next few days as the models get a better
hold of how it will evolve. The next question with respect to
precipitation is how much moisture these systems will have to work
with. Should have a decent amount for Friday night through Saturday,
allowing for light rain showers to be scattered across much of the
forecast area. With lower confidence in the mentionable precip early
next week, have only gone with slight to chance PoPs, primarily
keeping much of the precip mention confined to the northern half of
the forecast area. Now here`s where winter fights to hold on: have
included snow wording in this forecast update as temperatures look
to be cold enough to support possible light snow. Looking at the 12Z
GFS sounding near the Louisville area for overnight Monday, the
thermal profile is certainly indicative of snow, we`ll just have to
keep an eye on this to see how it plays out. For now, have rain or
snow wording in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 730 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2014
Surface low pressure crossing the KS/MO border at this time will
head towards northern IL by daybreak Wednesday. Southerly winds
ahead of this low have allowed cigs to come up today, and starting
to see more breaks in the clouds as this moisture moves into a drier
layer aloft. Winds just above the surface will pick up the rest of
the night, going to 40-50 knots and creating some low-level wind
shear. Latest RAP forecast continues these strong winds even a
little past 12Z, so have continued the LLWS well into the morning
hours. Should see some scattered showers as that surface low drags a
cold front toward the region. Cannot rule out an elevated
thunderstorm around KSDF at 12Z, but chance is low enough to keep
out of the TAF for now. Winds will turn to westerly with the frontal
passage from west to east between 20 and 22Z Wednesday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........MJP
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
118 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Precipitation mostly has ended across the winter weather advisory
area. Have some lighter snows over the Bluegrass now, but will cover
that area with a Traveler`s Advisory (TA). Another batch of
precipitation still is headed towards the far southeast corner of
the original advisory, so have kept it in place there with
temperatures below freezing in that region. A quick look at
soundings shows it will be close between them getting sleet or snow.
Given that Danville is showing snow now, would lean toward the
latter. Once that batch has moved through the rest of the advisory
area should be converted to a TA. One other note...given wet
conditions across South Central KY, decided to go ahead and throw
them in with the TA...given that the wet roads will have the
potential to freeze with lows going to around 30 down there and road
temperatures falling.
Issued at 830 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
As mentioned below, have cancelled part of the winter weather
advisory and replaced a portion of the cancelled area with a
Travelers Advisory. Looking at webcams up in our northern row of
counties, have seen roads already drying, and that region had less
precipitation than the rest of the forecast area. Thus kept that
northern row out of any further advisories.
As for the winter weather advisory, decided to keep it up a little
longer from Jefferson KY to Hardin KY, given the number of accident
reports we have been hearing from down there. Likely will drop those
counties in another hour or two, and replace with a travelers
advisory the rest of the night.
Issued at 600 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Have a couple of bands of heavier precipitation with lighter precip
surrounding them. One ranges from Tell City to Corydon to Goshen,
with reports coming in that this band is producing mostly snow.
Webcam out of Paoli earlier indicated some brief accumulations
there, but light totals. A second band runs from Hartford to E-town
to Harrodsburg. Type is more mixed with this band, but Dual Pol data
indicate that it has a better chance to be snow from Washington
county in KY to Jessamine county. Had a report from Springfield of
all snow and another report of a rain/snow mix east of Bardstown.
Will try and update locations for precip type with graphical
nowcasts on our webpage the next few hours.
Precipitation is starting to end north of that first band, with a
dry line quickly eroding southward into it. Still looking at some
potential for up to an inch of snow/sleet west of the I-65 corridor,
but a better chance to get into the 1-2 inch range east of I-65 in
the advisory area. Still, those accumulations should not last too
long after the precip ends, given warm ground conditions. Road
temperatures are starting to drop some, now in the mid 30s across
southern Indiana, but still in the 40s over central and southern KY.
At some point later in the evening, likely will convert the Winter
Weather Advisory into a Traveller`s Advisory for wet roads that
could freeze once those temps drop down enough. Fortunately the
place where this happens the quickest...our northern Indiana
counties...also have the least total QPF.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
It continues to rain across southern Kentucky at this hour, with the
rain mixing in with sleet across northern Kentucky and southern
Indiana. Reports of sleet stretch generally along the I-64 corridor.
There are a few reports of freezing rain on elevated surfaces across
the Bluegrass region, which is certainly possible, on elevated
surfaces. Ground and subsurface temperatures are still generally in
the 40s, a couple lower 50s for subsurface temps.
It took a little bit to finally saturate across the north today, but
once the moisture worked in it did not take long for the warm nose
at about 870 hPa to wetbulb. Latest aircraft soundings indicate this
nose of warm air is rather shallow yet maximizes at about +2C. It
should not take too much longer to cool that to the point where
partial melting will no longer occur and we transition over to all
snow by late this afternoon and evening. The deformation zone is
setting up across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, pretty
much as advertised.
The latest data, including the RAP have trended the best area of
snow/sleet accumulations a little farther north. The GFS places the
axis of accumulation across southern Indiana and into the far
northern Kentucky Bluegrass region. The NAM accumulation axis is a
little south of this by about one to two counties. The 17Z RAP
(latest as of this writing) still keeps most of the accumulations
south of the Ohio River, but now runs from roughly Jefferson County
Kentucky eastward into the Bluegrass region. The SREF is still the
preferred solution here, which takes into account the both the
northern and southern solutions. The SREF probabilities have seemed
to be the most consistent. So, will continue with the best
accumulation potential being from Perry County in Indiana
east-northeastward to Harrison/Nicholas Counties in Kentucky.
Precipitation will wane late this evening and through the early
morning hours.
Still see no reason to make any changes to the Advisory. Still think
near an inch accumulation for much of the Advisory area, a little
higher (1-2 inches) across the Bluegrass region is on tap. These
accumulations are more likely to occur on grassy areas and elevated
surfaces. With temperatures dropping into the 20s and lower 30s by
daybreak Monday, some slick spots on area roadways could be
possible. If the RAP continues to edge northward with it`s
accumulation axis, then some of the southeastern counties in the
Advisory might be dropped in later updates.
Let`s move on to Monday and warming temperatures this week. Monday
and Monday night will be dry with much lighter winds than today, as
high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures should top
out in the middle to upper 40s during the afternoon hours and drop
off into the upper 20s and 30s Monday night.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
================================
In the long term period, the flow aloft across North America will
remain rather progressive...but fairly zonal. Large negative height
anomalies at 500 hPa will remain located well to the north near
James Bay while an axis of positive height anomalies remains
generally in place across the NE Pacific into Alaska. The
configuration of the upper flow pattern will lead to a storm path
from the NNW to ESE through the period. Two systems look to affect
our region during the extended period. The first will arrive on
Wednesday with a secondary system coming into the region late Friday
and Saturday. This flow pattern will result in more seasonal
temperatures across the forecast area. A moderate warm up is
expected for Tuesday depending on the extent of return flow. A
stronger warm up looks increasingly likely by Friday as a more
robust return flow regime develops in advance of the aforementioned
second system.
================================
Model Preference & Confidence
================================
Overall, the deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro are in fairly
good agreement through the period. There continues to be some
timing issues with regards to the system arriving on Wednesday and
again late Friday and Saturday. However, the timing issues are
showing more convergence with time, so overall confidence is
slightly above normal. Raw model temperatures are a little too cool
and given recent model cold biases, feel that the statistical MOS
guidance is probably a bit better at this point. This would be
especially true Tuesday and Friday afternoon. Generally have gone
on the warmer side of the multi-model consensus which includes the
ensemble solutions. Minimum temperatures look good from a raw model
standpoint. Precipitation timing/amounts have average forecast
confidence, but the overall forecaster confidence trend is on the
upswing.
================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
================================
Overall, milder weather is on tap for the area through much of the
work week. A southerly flow is forecast to take shape late Monday
night into Tuesday. This combined with mid-march sun angles should
result in milder than normal temperatures. As mentioned above, have
gone closer to the statistical guidance here with highs in the lower
to middle 60s in the north and middle 60s down south. Clouds will
increase Tuesday night as the first upper level trough axis and
trailing cold front approach the region. This feature should bring
a band of showers through the region. Have trended the frontal
timing closer to the Euro here with a passage during the day on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mild with lows in the
lower-middle 40s and highs on Wednesday topping out in the middle to
upper 50s. Lows Wednesday night look to cool back into the 30s.
High pressure and ridging will build back in for Thursday with highs
warming back into he upper 50s to the lower 60s. A deeper return
flow pattern looks to return Thursday night and into Friday. Friday
looks to be the warmest day of the period. After a morning start in
the lower 40s, temperatures Friday afternoon look to warm into the
upper 60s to near 70 in the north...with 70-72 likely across far
southern KY. With the warmth, this only signals yet another
frontal passage that will occur late Friday night into Saturday
morning. With the warmer profiles and more moisture in the area,
rain showers with some scattered thunderstorms look likely. Again
in the post-frontal wake, we`ll see a cool down after the front
passes with highs on Saturday and Sunday warming into the middle to
upper 50s...while overnight lows remain in the upper 30s to the
lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2014
There were only a few snow showers left near LEX as of 5Z. Expect
this precip to move east out of the area within the next few hours
as the parent low pressure system over the Gulf states continues to
track east. Low cigs will hang around through at least this
afternoon though. MVFR cigs below 2 kft can be expected at BWG with
MVFR cigs above 2 kft at SDF/LEX. By this afternoon, most soundings
indicate low level moisture will have thinned a significant amount
so did go with VFR conditions for the rest of the day, but wouldn`t
be surprised if low clouds stick around longer and hover between
sct-bkn. The only other flight restriction in the SDF TAF period
might be some reduced vsbys in br for tomorrow morning.
Winds will remain out of the NE through this afternoon. Winds may
still gust between 20-25 kt for the next few hours especially at
LEX. Closer to sunrise, wind speeds should decline to 6-9 kts.
This evening expect winds to become light in nature and variable
with an easterly component.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT this morning FOR KYZ056-
057-066-067.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJP
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND AN
UPR RDG IN THE ROCKIES. SFC HI PRES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON
THE 00Z APX/GRB RAOBS /PWAT ARND 0.05 INCH/ ARE BRINGING A TRANQUIL
EARLY MRNG TO THE CWA...BUT HI CLDS ARE ON THE INCRS IN ADVANCE OF A
SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG WHICH IS DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS.
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SLY FLOW BTWN ACCOMPANYING SFC
LO/SE ONTARIO HI PRES AND SOME UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED
120KT H3 JET MAX CAUSING AN AREA OF SN OVER NRN MN. VSBYS IN THIS
AREA OF SN HAVE BEEN AS LO AS 1/2-3/4SM DESPITE FEED OF VERY DRY
LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION
AT 00Z WAS AN IMPRESSIVE 47C. ANOTHER MORE IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV APRCHG
THE PAC NW COAST IS CRASHING INTO THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL REVOLVE ARND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FALLING MSLP IN
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE W COAST.
TDAY...AREA OF SN NOW IN NRN MN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY 12Z
UNDER AREA OF IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280-
290K SFCS /H8-6/ AND AREA OF UPR DVGC. BUT VIGOROUS DRY SLOTTING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET SURGE AT THE SAME TIME THE JET CORE TENDS TO
SHEAR OUT/UPR DVGC WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS MORE CONFLUENT UPR FLOW ON
THE WRN FLANK OF CUTOFF LO IN THE CNDN MARITIMES SHOULD CAUSE THE
PCPN INTENSITY TO DIMINISH STEADILY AS THE AREA MOVES INTO THE DRIER
AIR TO THE E. ONE OTHER MECHANISM THAT WL TEND TO WEAKEN THE SN
MOVING THRU THE CWA IS H85-7 FRONTAL ZN THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN IN
NCENTRAL WI THIS AFTN AND FOCUS THE SHARPER UVV IN THAT AREA ON THE
SRN FLANK OF MID LVL DRY SLOTTING THAT WL IMPACT UPR MI. AS THE
SHARPER H7 FGEN SHIFTS TO THE E ACRS THE SCENTRL CWA LATER THIS
AFTN...SOME HIER POPS MAY IMPACT THAT AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SN
TOTALS...HIEST OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL...SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN
ABOUT AN INCH TDAY GIVEN THE NEGATIVES MENTIONED ABV AS WELL AS
IMPACTS OF DRY AIR.
TNGT...AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW DIGS THRU THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE PLAINS...STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW OVER THE UPR
LKS TO THE NE OF DVLPG SFC LO IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WL TEND TO LIFT
THE SHARPER H85-7 FGEN N INTO UPR MI. ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AT H85
WL TEND TO LIMIT SN CHCS OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...EXPECT INCRSG
POPS OVER THE W ESPECIALLY LATE...WHEN SOME UPR DVGC IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THAT AREA IN THE RRQ OF SHARPENING H3 JET MAX OVER LK SUP.
WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY APRCHG 3 G/KG...THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR
2 OF OF SN ACCUM OVER THE W IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME WHERE AND WHEN THE
FORCING LOOKS MORE FVRBL DESPITE UNFVRBL HIER...THIN DGZ.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
...COMPLEX AND POSSIBLY MULTI FACETED WINTER STORM TO AFFECT UPR
MICHIGAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SFC LOW IN THE VCNTY OF EASTERN NEB INTO KS. H85 LOW IN SIMILAR POSN
WITH SOUTH WINDS DRAWING WARM AIR TOWARD UPR LAKES. AREA OF H8-H6
FGEN OVER UPR MICHIGAN WILL FOCUS SWATH OF SNOW 12Z-18Z ON TUESDAY.
DRYING NOSING IN FROM SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SHARP EDGE TO THE SNOW.
NAM/GFS AND GEM-NH HAVE TRENDED WITH FARTHER SOUTH H85 BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND THUS MORE QPF DURING THE MORNING HOURS THAN THEY PREVIOUSLY
SHOWED. DECENT MOISTURE IS ADVECTING INTO THE FGEN BAND WITH H7
MIXING RATIOS AROUND 3G/KG PER ECMWF. BY TUESDAY AFTN...MOST MODELS
SHOW FGEN SNOW BAND LIFTING NORTH AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE AS MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXITS NORTH...COULD SEE DZ FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL WITH
EAST WINDS. THIS CLOSES PHASE ONE OF THE SYSTEM. ONLY OTHER
ADJUSTMENT OF NOTE ON TUESDAY WAS TO LOWER TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR
20S TO LOWER 30S FOR CWA.
ON TO THE SECOND AND EVEN MORE COMPLEX PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY EVENING. SFC LOW WELL AGREED UPON AT
THIS TIME WITH CENTER VCNTY OF IOWA. THIS SYSTEM THEN BECOMES VERY
FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVY PRECIPIATION
ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. UPPER SUPPORT CERTAINLY THERE FM DIRECT IMPACT OF PVA/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS MAIN PV ANAMOLY LIFTS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS UPR MICHIGAN IS WITHIN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF JET STRONG JET NOSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
WHILE...MOISTURE INFLUX INTO SYSTEM IS NOTABLE WITH H85-H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED INTO THE REGION BOOSTING H7 MIXING RATIOS TO AROUND
3G/KG. 24HR QPF ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY HAVE BUMPED UP TO OVER 0.6
INCH AND EVEN PUSHED OVER 0.8 IF GOING WITH NAM. GIVEN THE PLETHORA
OF SUPPORT AND ENHANCEMENT TO THIS SYSTEM...THESE FORECASTS DO NOT
SEEM THAT OVERDONE. SFC LOW TRACKS TO CNTRL/NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN BY
12Z ON WEDNESDAY. WARM LAYER 900-850MB LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AT LEAST
IMPACT SOUTHEAST THIRD OF CWA LATE TUESDAY EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THINGS
TURN QUICKLY BACK TO SNOW EVEN IN THE EASTERN CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION OCCURS THEN THE WARMING TAKES PLACE...LEAVING LESS ROOM
FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. NAM/GFS SHOW WARM LAYER TEMPS UP TO
2-3C...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND LESS SLEET.
NAM FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH WARM LAYER AND WOULD BRING FZRA TO
IMT AND SAW AND EVEN CMX FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM
ALSO MUCH FARTHER WEST WITH H85 CIRCULATION AND BASED ON DPROG/DT
SEEMS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THUS WILL NOT BE
AS AGGRESSIVE/NORTHWEST WITH WARM LAYER AS NAM SHOWS ATTM. AT THE
SAME TIME...ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE WITH MAINLY A SNOWSTORM OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WARM LAYER IS SHUNTED TO THE EAST BEFORE MAKING IT
INTO SE CWA. GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/FZRA/PL
ONLY OVER FAR SE CWA. SYSTEM IS NOW ONSHORE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SO WE SHOULD START TO SEE ADJUSTMENTS TO TRACK AND EXTENT OF WARM
LAYER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HEADLINES...EVENT IS TRICKY...MAINLY DUE TO THE TWO MAIN TIME FRAMES
THAT THERE COULD BE HEAVIER SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX. SINCE THE TREND
IS FOR MORE SNOW ON TUESDAY OVER THE FAR WEST AND GRADIENT TO THE
SNOW COULD BE VERY SHARP /PERHAPS KEEPING MOST OF THIS INITIAL SNOW
OUT OF AREAS FARTHER INTO THE CNTRL CWA AS NAM AND OTHER HIGH RES
MODELS POINT TO/ THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WESTERN TIER
OF UPR MICHIGAN IN A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING 10Z TONIGHT AND
RUNNING THIS ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID NOT GO WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL WATCHES FARTHER TO THE EAST THOUGH SINCE SNOW OVER
THE CNTRL CWA AND WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/FZRA/PL FARTHER EAST DOES NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL LATER TUESDAY EVENING AND ON INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
EVERYTHING CONTINUES AS FORECAST WHICH IS A BIG IF AS MODEL SOLNS
MAY VERY WELL JOG AROUND FURTHER WILL EVENTUALLY NEED SOME HEADLINES
FOR REST OF CWA AS WELL. GOING TO ISSUE AN SPS SO THERE IS SOME
HEADS UP THAT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT
AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER. IF TIMING HOLDS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF BEING IMPACTED ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM WINDS DOWN...EXPECT SOME LGT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW LINGERING ALONG LK SUPERIOR FIRST THING ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE SCOURS OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
FRIDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH NOW...THOUGH MODELS HAVE BOUNCED
AROUND ON WHETHER TO BRING NORTHERN FRINGE INTO SOUTHERN CWA. COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER COLD SHOT OF
AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SEEMED GOOD FOR
SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
EXPECT INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW AND LOWERING CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UNSURE ON EXACT TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF LOWEST CONDITIONS AS THE BAND WILL BE NARROW AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
S WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE UP TO 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES AND DEVELOPING LO PRES TO THE W IN THE PLAINS. AS
THIS LOW MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE INTO WED...LIKELY
PASSING JUST TO THE S OF UPPER MI...THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE E AND
THEN N BY WED...WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 30 KTS TO GALES TO 35
KTS ON WED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY THRU THU AS A
TRAILING HI PRES RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES. A STRONGER N WIND
UP TO 25-30 KTS MAY DEVELOP ON FRI AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE S THRU THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND AN
UPR RDG IN THE ROCKIES. SFC HI PRES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON
THE 00Z APX/GRB RAOBS /PWAT ARND 0.05 INCH/ ARE BRINGING A TRANQUIL
EARLY MRNG TO THE CWA...BUT HI CLDS ARE ON THE INCRS IN ADVANCE OF A
SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG WHICH IS DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS.
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SLY FLOW BTWN ACCOMPANYING SFC
LO/SE ONTARIO HI PRES AND SOME UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED
120KT H3 JET MAX CAUSING AN AREA OF SN OVER NRN MN. VSBYS IN THIS
AREA OF SN HAVE BEEN AS LO AS 1/2-3/4SM DESPITE FEED OF VERY DRY
LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION
AT 00Z WAS AN IMPRESSIVE 47C. ANOTHER MORE IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV APRCHG
THE PAC NW COAST IS CRASHING INTO THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL REVOLVE ARND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FALLING MSLP IN
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE W COAST.
TDAY...AREA OF SN NOW IN NRN MN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY 12Z
UNDER AREA OF IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280-
290K SFCS /H8-6/ AND AREA OF UPR DVGC. BUT VIGOROUS DRY SLOTTING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET SURGE AT THE SAME TIME THE JET CORE TENDS TO
SHEAR OUT/UPR DVGC WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS MORE CONFLUENT UPR FLOW ON
THE WRN FLANK OF CUTOFF LO IN THE CNDN MARITIMES SHOULD CAUSE THE
PCPN INTENSITY TO DIMINISH STEADILY AS THE AREA MOVES INTO THE DRIER
AIR TO THE E. ONE OTHER MECHANISM THAT WL TEND TO WEAKEN THE SN
MOVING THRU THE CWA IS H85-7 FRONTAL ZN THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN IN
NCENTRAL WI THIS AFTN AND FOCUS THE SHARPER UVV IN THAT AREA ON THE
SRN FLANK OF MID LVL DRY SLOTTING THAT WL IMPACT UPR MI. AS THE
SHARPER H7 FGEN SHIFTS TO THE E ACRS THE SCENTRL CWA LATER THIS
AFTN...SOME HIER POPS MAY IMPACT THAT AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SN
TOTALS...HIEST OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL...SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN
ABOUT AN INCH TDAY GIVEN THE NEGATIVES MENTIONED ABV AS WELL AS
IMPACTS OF DRY AIR.
TNGT...AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW DIGS THRU THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE PLAINS...STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW OVER THE UPR
LKS TO THE NE OF DVLPG SFC LO IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WL TEND TO LIFT
THE SHARPER H85-7 FGEN N INTO UPR MI. ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AT H85
WL TEND TO LIMIT SN CHCS OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...EXPECT INCRSG
POPS OVER THE W ESPECIALLY LATE...WHEN SOME UPR DVGC IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THAT AREA IN THE RRQ OF SHARPENING H3 JET MAX OVER LK SUP.
WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY APRCHG 3 G/KG...THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR
2 OF OF SN ACCUM OVER THE W IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME WHERE AND WHEN THE
FORCING LOOKS MORE FVRBL DESPITE UNFVRBL HIER...THIN DGZ.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
...COMPLEX AND POSSIBLY MULTI FACETED WINTER STORM TO AFFECT UPR
MICHIGAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SFC LOW IN THE VCNTY OF EASTERN NEB INTO KS. H85 LOW IN SIMILAR POSN
WITH SOUTH WINDS DRAWING WARM AIR TOWARD UPR LAKES. AREA OF H8-H6
FGEN OVER UPR MICHIGAN WILL FOCUS SWATH OF SNOW 12Z-18Z ON TUESDAY.
DRYING NOSING IN FROM SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SHARP EDGE TO THE SNOW.
NAM/GFS AND GEM-NH HAVE TRENDED WITH FARTHER SOUTH H85 BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND THUS MORE QPF DURING THE MORNING HOURS THAN THEY PREVIOUSLY
SHOWED. DECENT MOISTURE IS ADVECTING INTO THE FGEN BAND WITH H7
MIXING RATIOS AROUND 3G/KG PER ECMWF. BY TUESDAY AFTN...MOST MODELS
SHOW FGEN SNOW BAND LIFTING NORTH AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE AS MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXITS NORTH...COULD SEE DZ FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL WITH
EAST WINDS. THIS CLOSES PHASE ONE OF THE SYSTEM. ONLY OTHER
ADJUSTMENT OF NOTE ON TUESDAY WAS TO LOWER TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR
20S TO LOWER 30S FOR CWA.
ON TO THE SECOND AND EVEN MORE COMPLEX PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY EVENING. SFC LOW WELL AGREED UPON AT
THIS TIME WITH CENTER VCNTY OF IOWA. THIS SYSTEM THEN BECOMES VERY
FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVY PRECIPIATION
ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. UPPER SUPPORT CERTAINLY THERE FM DIRECT IMPACT OF PVA/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS MAIN PV ANAMOLY LIFTS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS UPR MICHIGAN IS WITHIN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF JET STRONG JET NOSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
WHILE...MOISTURE INFLUX INTO SYSTEM IS NOTABLE WITH H85-H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED INTO THE REGION BOOSTING H7 MIXING RATIOS TO AROUND
3G/KG. 24HR QPF ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY HAVE BUMPED UP TO OVER 0.6
INCH AND EVEN PUSHED OVER 0.8 IF GOING WITH NAM. GIVEN THE PLETHORA
OF SUPPORT AND ENHANCEMENT TO THIS SYSTEM...THESE FORECASTS DO NOT
SEEM THAT OVERDONE. SFC LOW TRACKS TO CNTRL/NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN BY
12Z ON WEDNESDAY. WARM LAYER 900-850MB LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AT LEAST
IMPACT SOUTHEAST THIRD OF CWA LATE TUESDAY EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THINGS
TURN QUICKLY BACK TO SNOW EVEN IN THE EASTERN CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION OCCURS THEN THE WARMING TAKES PLACE...LEAVING LESS ROOM
FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. NAM/GFS SHOW WARM LAYER TEMPS UP TO
2-3C...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND LESS SLEET.
NAM FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH WARM LAYER AND WOULD BRING FZRA TO
IMT AND SAW AND EVEN CMX FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM
ALSO MUCH FARTHER WEST WITH H85 CIRCULATION AND BASED ON DPROG/DT
SEEMS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THUS WILL NOT BE
AS AGGRESSIVE/NORTHWEST WITH WARM LAYER AS NAM SHOWS ATTM. AT THE
SAME TIME...ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE WITH MAINLY A SNOWSTORM OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WARM LAYER IS SHUNTED TO THE EAST BEFORE MAKING IT
INTO SE CWA. GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/FZRA/PL
ONLY OVER FAR SE CWA. SYSTEM IS NOW ONSHORE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SO WE SHOULD START TO SEE ADJUSTMENTS TO TRACK AND EXTENT OF WARM
LAYER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HEADLINES...EVENT IS TRICKY...MAINLY DUE TO THE TWO MAIN TIME FRAMES
THAT THERE COULD BE HEAVIER SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX. SINCE THE TREND
IS FOR MORE SNOW ON TUESDAY OVER THE FAR WEST AND GRADIENT TO THE
SNOW COULD BE VERY SHARP /PERHAPS KEEPING MOST OF THIS INITIAL SNOW
OUT OF AREAS FARTHER INTO THE CNTRL CWA AS NAM AND OTHER HIGH RES
MODELS POINT TO/ THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WESTERN TIER
OF UPR MICHIGAN IN A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING 10Z TONIGHT AND
RUNNING THIS ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID NOT GO WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL WATCHES FARTHER TO THE EAST THOUGH SINCE SNOW OVER
THE CNTRL CWA AND WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/FZRA/PL FARTHER EAST DOES NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL LATER TUESDAY EVENING AND ON INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
EVERYTHING CONTINUES AS FORECAST WHICH IS A BIG IF AS MODEL SOLNS
MAY VERY WELL JOG AROUND FURTHER WILL EVENTUALLY NEED SOME HEADLINES
FOR REST OF CWA AS WELL. GOING TO ISSUE AN SPS SO THERE IS SOME
HEADS UP THAT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT
AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER. IF TIMING HOLDS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF BEING IMPACTED ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM WINDS DOWN...EXPECT SOME LGT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW LINGERING ALONG LK SUPERIOR FIRST THING ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE SCOURS OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
FRIDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH NOW...THOUGH MODELS HAVE BOUNCED
AROUND ON WHETHER TO BRING NORTHERN FRINGE INTO SOUTHERN CWA. COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER COLD SHOT OF
AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SEEMED GOOD FOR
SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
ALTHOUGH SOME -SN MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY CAUSE SOME OCNL MVFR
VSBYS AT IWD/CMX THRU THIS MRNG...DRYNESS OF ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND
TENDENCY FOR DYNAMIC FORCING TO WEAKEN WITH TIME WL CAUSE
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE DAY WITH DOWNSLOPE SSE FLOW.
ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR WL LIKELY EVAPORATE THE BULK OF THIS PCPN
BEFORE IT REACHES SAW...A MORE FVRBL...GUSTY UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT
WL LIKELY CAUSE SOME MVFR CIGS AT THAT LOCATION THIS AFTN THRU THE
NGT. LATER TNGT...SOME HEAVIER WAD SN WL ARRIVE OVER FAR WRN UPR MI
AND DROP THE VSBY AT IWD INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
S WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE UP TO 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES AND DEVELOPING LO PRES TO THE W IN THE PLAINS. AS
THIS LOW MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE INTO WED...LIKELY
PASSING JUST TO THE S OF UPPER MI...THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE E AND
THEN N BY WED...WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 30 KTS TO GALES TO 35
KTS ON WED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY THRU THU AS A
TRAILING HI PRES RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES. A STRONGER N WIND
UP TO 25-30 KTS MAY DEVELOP ON FRI AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE S THRU THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
423 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND AN
UPR RDG IN THE ROCKIES. SFC HI PRES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON
THE 00Z APX/GRB RAOBS /PWAT ARND 0.05 INCH/ ARE BRINGING A TRANQUIL
EARLY MRNG TO THE CWA...BUT HI CLDS ARE ON THE INCRS IN ADVANCE OF A
SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG WHICH IS DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS.
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SLY FLOW BTWN ACCOMPANYING SFC
LO/SE ONTARIO HI PRES AND SOME UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED
120KT H3 JET MAX CAUSING AN AREA OF SN OVER NRN MN. VSBYS IN THIS
AREA OF SN HAVE BEEN AS LO AS 1/2-3/4SM DESPITE FEED OF VERY DRY
LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION
AT 00Z WAS AN IMPRESSIVE 47C. ANOTHER MORE IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV APRCHG
THE PAC NW COAST IS CRASHING INTO THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL REVOLVE ARND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FALLING MSLP IN
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE W COAST.
TDAY...AREA OF SN NOW IN NRN MN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY 12Z
UNDER AREA OF IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280-
290K SFCS /H8-6/ AND AREA OF UPR DVGC. BUT VIGOROUS DRY SLOTTING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET SURGE AT THE SAME TIME THE JET CORE TENDS TO
SHEAR OUT/UPR DVGC WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS MORE CONFLUENT UPR FLOW ON
THE WRN FLANK OF CUTOFF LO IN THE CNDN MARITIMES SHOULD CAUSE THE
PCPN INTENSITY TO DIMINISH STEADILY AS THE AREA MOVES INTO THE DRIER
AIR TO THE E. ONE OTHER MECHANISM THAT WL TEND TO WEAKEN THE SN
MOVING THRU THE CWA IS H85-7 FRONTAL ZN THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN IN
NCENTRAL WI THIS AFTN AND FOCUS THE SHARPER UVV IN THAT AREA ON THE
SRN FLANK OF MID LVL DRY SLOTTING THAT WL IMPACT UPR MI. AS THE
SHARPER H7 FGEN SHIFTS TO THE E ACRS THE SCENTRL CWA LATER THIS
AFTN...SOME HIER POPS MAY IMPACT THAT AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SN
TOTALS...HIEST OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL...SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN
ABOUT AN INCH TDAY GIVEN THE NEGATIVES MENTIONED ABV AS WELL AS
IMPACTS OF DRY AIR.
TNGT...AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW DIGS THRU THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE PLAINS...STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW OVER THE UPR
LKS TO THE NE OF DVLPG SFC LO IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WL TEND TO LIFT
THE SHARPER H85-7 FGEN N INTO UPR MI. ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AT H85
WL TEND TO LIMIT SN CHCS OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...EXPECT INCRSG
POPS OVER THE W ESPECIALLY LATE...WHEN SOME UPR DVGC IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THAT AREA IN THE RRQ OF SHARPENING H3 JET MAX OVER LK SUP.
WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY APRCHG 3 G/KG...THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR
2 OF OF SN ACCUM OVER THE W IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME WHERE AND WHEN THE
FORCING LOOKS MORE FVRBL DESPITE UNFVRBL HIER...THIN DGZ.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
...COMPLEX AND POSSIBLY MULTI FACETED WINTER STORM TO AFFECT UPR
MICHIGAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SFC LOW IN THE VCNTY OF EASTERN NEB INTO KS. H85 LOW IN SIMILAR POSN
WITH SOUTH WINDS DRAWING WARM AIR TOWARD UPR LAKES. AREA OF H8-H6
FGEN OVER UPR MICHIGAN WILL FOCUS SWATH OF SNOW 12Z-18Z ON TUESDAY.
DRYING NOSING IN FROM SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SHARP EDGE TO THE SNOW.
NAM/GFS AND GEM-NH HAVE TRENDED WITH FARTHER SOUTH H85 BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND THUS MORE QPF DURING THE MORNING HOURS THAN THEY PREVIOUSLY
SHOWED. DECENT MOISTURE IS ADVECTING INTO THE FGEN BAND WITH H7
MIXING RATIOS AROUND 3G/KG PER ECMWF. BY TUESDAY AFTN...MOST MODELS
SHOW FGEN SNOW BAND LIFTING NORTH AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE AS MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXITS NORTH...COULD SEE DZ FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL WITH
EAST WINDS. THIS CLOSES PHASE ONE OF THE SYSTEM. ONLY OTHER
ADJUSTMENT OF NOTE ON TUESDAY WAS TO LOWER TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR
20S TO LOWER 30S FOR CWA.
ON TO THE SECOND AND EVEN MORE COMPLEX PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY EVENING. SFC LOW WELL AGREED UPON AT
THIS TIME WITH CENTER VCNTY OF IOWA. THIS SYSTEM THEN BECOMES VERY
FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVY PRECIPIATION
ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. UPPER SUPPORT CERTAINLY THERE FM DIRECT IMPACT OF PVA/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS MAIN PV ANAMOLY LIFTS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS UPR MICHIGAN IS WITHIN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF JET STRONG JET NOSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
WHILE...MOISTURE INFLUX INTO SYSTEM IS NOTABLE WITH H85-H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED INTO THE REGION BOOSTING H7 MIXING RATIOS TO AROUND
3G/KG. 24HR QPF ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY HAVE BUMPED UP TO OVER 0.6
INCH AND EVEN PUSHED OVER 0.8 IF GOING WITH NAM. GIVEN THE PLETHORA
OF SUPPORT AND ENHANCEMENT TO THIS SYSTEM...THESE FORECASTS DO NOT
SEEM THAT OVERDONE. SFC LOW TRACKS TO CNTRL/NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN BY
12Z ON WEDNESDAY. WARM LAYER 900-850MB LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AT LEAST
IMPACT SOUTHEAST THIRD OF CWA LATE TUESDAY EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THINGS
TURN QUICKLY BACK TO SNOW EVEN IN THE EASTERN CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION OCCURS THEN THE WARMING TAKES PLACE...LEAVING LESS ROOM
FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. NAM/GFS SHOW WARM LAYER TEMPS UP TO
2-3C...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND LESS SLEET.
NAM FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH WARM LAYER AND WOULD BRING FZRA TO
IMT AND SAW AND EVEN CMX FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM
ALSO MUCH FARTHER WEST WITH H85 CIRCULATION AND BASED ON DPROG/DT
SEEMS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THUS WILL NOT BE
AS AGGRESSIVE/NORTHWEST WITH WARM LAYER AS NAM SHOWS ATTM. AT THE
SAME TIME...ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE WITH MAINLY A SNOWSTORM OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WARM LAYER IS SHUNTED TO THE EAST BEFORE MAKING IT
INTO SE CWA. GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/FZRA/PL
ONLY OVER FAR SE CWA. SYSTEM IS NOW ONSHORE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SO WE SHOULD START TO SEE ADJUSTMENTS TO TRACK AND EXTENT OF WARM
LAYER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HEADLINES...EVENT IS TRICKY...MAINLY DUE TO THE TWO MAIN TIME FRAMES
THAT THERE COULD BE HEAVIER SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX. SINCE THE TREND
IS FOR MORE SNOW ON TUESDAY OVER THE FAR WEST AND GRADIENT TO THE
SNOW COULD BE VERY SHARP /PERHAPS KEEPING MOST OF THIS INITIAL SNOW
OUT OF AREAS FARTHER INTO THE CNTRL CWA AS NAM AND OTHER HIGH RES
MODELS POINT TO/ THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WESTERN TIER
OF UPR MICHIGAN IN A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING 10Z TONIGHT AND
RUNNING THIS ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID NOT GO WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL WATCHES FARTHER TO THE EAST THOUGH SINCE SNOW OVER
THE CNTRL CWA AND WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/FZRA/PL FARTHER EAST DOES NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL LATER TUESDAY EVENING AND ON INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
EVERYTHING CONTINUES AS FORECAST WHICH IS A BIG IF AS MODEL SOLNS
MAY VERY WELL JOG AROUND FURTHER WILL EVENTUALLY NEED SOME HEADLINES
FOR REST OF CWA AS WELL. GOING TO ISSUE AN SPS SO THERE IS SOME
HEADS UP THAT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT
AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER. IF TIMING HOLDS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF BEING IMPACTED ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM WINDS DOWN...EXPECT SOME LGT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW LINGERING ALONG LK SUPERIOR FIRST THING ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE SCOURS OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
FRIDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH NOW...THOUGH MODELS HAVE BOUNCED
AROUND ON WHETHER TO BRING NORTHERN FRINGE INTO SOUTHERN CWA. COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER COLD SHOT OF
AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SEEMED GOOD FOR
SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO NE ONTARIO. S WINDS AND MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KIWD.
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO ALLOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER
MONDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT IWD AND CMX AROUND
15Z WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL EVENTUALLY REACH KSAW AFT 18Z. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SOME AT
THE WRN TAF SITES MON EVENING AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF WAA PCPN LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
S WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE UP TO 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES AND DEVELOPING LO PRES TO THE W IN THE PLAINS. AS
THIS LOW MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE INTO WED...LIKELY
PASSING JUST TO THE S OF UPPER MI...THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE E AND
THEN N BY WED...WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 30 KTS TO GALES TO 35
KTS ON WED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY THRU THU AS A
TRAILING HI PRES RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES. A STRONGER N WIND
UP TO 25-30 KTS MAY DEVELOP ON FRI AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE S THRU THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND AN
UPR RDG IN THE ROCKIES. SFC HI PRES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON
THE 00Z APX/GRB RAOBS /PWAT ARND 0.05 INCH/ ARE BRINGING A TRANQUIL
EARLY MRNG TO THE CWA...BUT HI CLDS ARE ON THE INCRS IN ADVANCE OF A
SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG WHICH IS DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS.
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SLY FLOW BTWN ACCOMPANYING SFC
LO/SE ONTARIO HI PRES AND SOME UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED
120KT H3 JET MAX CAUSING AN AREA OF SN OVER NRN MN. VSBYS IN THIS
AREA OF SN HAVE BEEN AS LO AS 1/2-3/4SM DESPITE FEED OF VERY DRY
LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION
AT 00Z WAS AN IMPRESSIVE 47C. ANOTHER MORE IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV APRCHG
THE PAC NW COAST IS CRASHING INTO THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL REVOLVE ARND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FALLING MSLP IN
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE W COAST.
TDAY...AREA OF SN NOW IN NRN MN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY 12Z
UNDER AREA OF IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280-
290K SFCS /H8-6/ AND AREA OF UPR DVGC. BUT VIGOROUS DRY SLOTTING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET SURGE AT THE SAME TIME THE JET CORE TENDS TO
SHEAR OUT/UPR DVGC WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS MORE CONFLUENT UPR FLOW ON
THE WRN FLANK OF CUTOFF LO IN THE CNDN MARITIMES SHOULD CAUSE THE
PCPN INTENSITY TO DIMINISH STEADILY AS THE AREA MOVES INTO THE DRIER
AIR TO THE E. ONE OTHER MECHANISM THAT WL TEND TO WEAKEN THE SN
MOVING THRU THE CWA IS H85-7 FRONTAL ZN THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN IN
NCENTRAL WI THIS AFTN AND FOCUS THE SHARPER UVV IN THAT AREA ON THE
SRN FLANK OF MID LVL DRY SLOTTING THAT WL IMPACT UPR MI. AS THE
SHARPER H7 FGEN SHIFTS TO THE E ACRS THE SCENTRL CWA LATER THIS
AFTN...SOME HIER POPS MAY IMPACT THAT AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SN
TOTALS...HIEST OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL...SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN
ABOUT AN INCH TDAY GIVEN THE NEGATIVES MENTIONED ABV AS WELL AS
IMPACTS OF DRY AIR.
TNGT...AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW DIGS THRU THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE PLAINS...STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW OVER THE UPR
LKS TO THE NE OF DVLPG SFC LO IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WL TEND TO LIFT
THE SHARPER H85-7 FGEN N INTO UPR MI. ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AT H85
WL TEND TO LIMIT SN CHCS OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...EXPECT INCRSG
POPS OVER THE W ESPECIALLY LATE...WHEN SOME UPR DVGC IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THAT AREA IN THE RRQ OF SHARPENING H3 JET MAX OVER LK SUP.
WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY APRCHG 3 G/KG...THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR
2 OF OF SN ACCUM OVER THE W IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME WHERE AND WHEN THE
FORCING LOOKS MORE FVRBL DESPITE UNFVRBL HIER...THIN DGZ.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT THE CWA...POSSIBLY BRINGING MIXED PRECIP AND SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO PARTS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR PRECIP WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS IS EXPECTED.
FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN FAIR AT BEST FOR MOST MODELS
AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT IS LIMITED. THE POOR CONTINUITY AND HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IS UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK. MODEL TO MODEL
AGREEMENT IS NOT ALL THAT BAD IN GENERAL...BUT THE FINE DETAILS
NEEDED FOR PTYPE AND PRECIP AMOUNT FORECASTS ARE FAR FROM
SETTLED...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR WHERE THE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE MODEL SPREAD INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BETTER OBSERVATION
NETWORK OF THE PACIFIC NW CONUS ON MON. IN A TYPICAL SITUATION WITH
THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...SHOULD START SEEING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TUE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LEEWARD OF THE
ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO A
STRONG RIDGE UP UNTIL THIS POINT...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW WELL IT DOES AFTER INTERACTING WITH THE RIDGE. MODELS SHOW
THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AFTER LEEWARD
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS E OF THE ROCKIES AND NRN/SRN JET STREAM
INTERACTION OCCURS ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXACTLY WHERE
AND TO WHAT MAGNITUDE THE LOW DEEPENS IS LESS AGREED ON BETWEEN THE
MODELS AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS ANYWAY. MODELS THEN
SHOW THE SFC LOW MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SOMETIME TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. THE 12Z/16 NAM IS FARTHEST NW WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW IN
BRINGING IT ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE 00Z/16 GLOBAL GEM
IS FARTHEST SE IN BRINGING IT FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO NEAR GAYLORD. THE
12Z/16 GFS BRINGS THE SFC LOW FROM NEAR MENOMINEE TO NEAR
NEWBERRY...WHILE THE 00Z/16 ECMWF IS FROM MILWAUKEE TO NEAR THE SOO.
WHILE A MIDDLE OF THE GROUND APPROACH IS CERTAINLY A REASONABLE
APPROACH FOR THE FORECAST...AT THIS POINT IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO
PREFER ANY ONE SOLUTION OVER ANOTHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ALREADY
DISCUSSED. THE POSSIBILITIES FOR THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM LEAD TO
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE PTYPE AND PRECIP AMOUNT...WITH THE
FARTHER S SOLUTION OF THE GEM FAVORING MORE SNOW BOTH AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FGEN AREA THAT ALL MODELS SHOW
TO THE N/NE OF THE SYSTEM. THE FARTHER N SOLUTION OF THE NAM WOULD
RESULT IN LESS OVERALL PRECIP AND MORE OF THAT BEING MIXED OR ALL
LIQUID. THE CONSENSUS APPROACH LEADS TO MIXED PRECIP OVER THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND MORE SNOW OVER THE NWRN CWA. AGAIN...THESE
DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COULD NOT
FIND SIGNIFICANT JUSTIFICATION TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. IT REMAINS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION BUT DETAILS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. DEFINITELY A TRICKY FORECAST THAT WILL HAVE TO BE FINE
TUNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO NE ONTARIO. S WINDS AND MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KIWD.
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO ALLOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER
MONDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT IWD AND CMX AROUND
15Z WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL EVENTUALLY REACH KSAW AFT 18Z. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SOME AT
THE WRN TAF SITES MON EVENING AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF WAA PCPN LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
S WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE UP TO 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES AND DEVELOPING LO PRES TO THE W IN THE PLAINS. AS
THIS LOW MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE INTO WED...LIKELY
PASSING JUST TO THE S OF UPPER MI...THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE E AND
THEN N BY WED...WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 30 KTS TO GALES TO 35
KTS ON WED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY THRU THU AS A
TRAILING HI PRES RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES. A STRONGER N WIND
UP TO 25-30 KTS MAY DEVELOP ON FRI AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE S THRU THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1142 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
A STRONG AREA OF WAA CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH SOME LIGHT LES ALSO OCCURRING TOWARD
KCKC. WE WILL UPDATE GRIDS SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS
TONIGHT. WE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ON MONDAY AS MORE
OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT BRINGING ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO AROUND PARK
FALLS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
AN AREA OF SNOW WAS MOVING QUICKLY WEST TO EAST THROUGH WESTERN
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. WE HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS BAND...WHICH WAS LARGELY BEING FORCED BY STRONG
WAA. WE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUD COVER AS WELL.
WE DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PERIODS AT THIS TIME. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND COULD RECEIVE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND THE 18Z NAM CAME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. THESE SOLUTIONS PUT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW...OVER 8 INCHES...FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL AS
EXTREME NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ECMWF ALSO CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER WITH ITS
SNOWFALL FORECAST. THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY HAS KEPT US FROM ISSUING
A WATCH AND WE WILL MOST LIKELY WAIT FOR THE 00Z MODELS BEFORE
DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS MOVING
NE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH ND. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH ITS`
SURFACE REFLECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF
ND WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW HITTING THE GROUND. THE MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 03Z...AND GNA/ASX BY 10Z. DUE TO SOME FRONTOGENESIS
ACROSS THE AREA...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BEFORE
ENDING WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY MORNING IN NE MN/NW WI EXCEPT THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE THERE WILL BE AROUND AN INCH MORE DUE TO TERRAIN
LIFT.
THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 210 IN
NE MN AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 IN NW WI. ABOUT AN INCH WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
LONG TERM....MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
FOCUS ON A WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF OF THE PACIFIC COAST. LATEST GFS/ECM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE MAKES LANDFALL
OVERNIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR IDEA THAT A VORT/H85 LOW
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA MONDAY
NIGHT...WHILE LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER MN/WI. THIS LOW THEN DEEPENS
INTO A CLOSED H50 LOW AS IT ROTATES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING AND PWATS AROUND A HALF INCH...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6-8"
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE LOW
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ALL OVER BOARD WITH THE LOW
TRACK...WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON
PTYPE/SN AMOUNTS. AN ENSEMBLE CLUSTER PLOT OF THE LOW TRACK ISSUED
BY THE WPC SHOWS VARIANCE IN THE LOW POSITION TUESDAY ANYWHERE FROM
NRN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN IOWA. WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING A
WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
STORM TRACK.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST...CONTINUING TO
WEIGH THE POPS/QPF/SN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECM.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE/NRN WISC ZONES THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
HOW WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE. AN AREA OF SNOW WAS
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO MANITOBA IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG WAA. THE BAND OF SNOW WAS MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A RATHER NARROW BAND OF
SNOW WITH A 1-2 HOUR SPAN OF LOW VSBYS/CEILINGS. WE WILL REFINE
THE TIMING IN THE TAFS AS THIS BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THE COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
LIMITED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE BAND OF SNOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 14 28 21 31 / 60 50 50 80
INL 15 34 19 30 / 80 40 40 60
BRD 18 36 26 32 / 40 40 60 80
HYR 11 30 22 37 / 50 50 10 40
ASX 11 29 22 35 / 50 60 30 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
848 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
WEAK SHORT WAVE AND HIGH LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTIVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY DOWN INTO
SHERIDAN COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WE HAD ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE BETWEEN
BILLINGS AND HARDIN EARLIER IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER...I DO NOT SEE
ANYTHING TO STRONG ON RADAR AT THIS TIME AND WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER THE REST OF THE NIGHT. JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS
OVERALL FOR THE UPDATE. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
SNOW SHOWERS WERE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PER
RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS. STILL EXPECTING POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDER BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING CLOSE TO 200 J/KG OF CAPE
AND SSEO SHOWING DECENT PROBABILITIES OF STRONG RADAR ECHOES. HAVE
INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING E OF KBIL. SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM W TO E TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WERE IN GOOD SHAPE BASED ON
GUIDANCE...AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
DEGREES C.
WED WILL BE WARMER AND DRY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA.
HAVE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON EXPECTED
MIXING. PACIFIC ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. NOTED THAT LOW-LEVELS WERE FAIRLY DRY ON THE
MODELS...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE EASTWARD EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF
POPS. AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MT/CANADIAN BORDER...WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM KBIL W. PATTERN DID NOT LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS. DID RAISE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
THU. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE SHOWED WIND SPEED
ANOMALIES AT 850 MB SO IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS THE AREA. AIRMASS
WILL MOISTEN THROUGH THE DAY SO HAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
MORNING AND CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 30S W TO THE 40S E. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WAS
FORECAST TO PUSH S THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT AND THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKED TO BE N AND E OF KBIL. WRF WAS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS IN BRINGING QPF S INTO THE AREA SO KEPT POPS AT
MAINLY CHANCE VALUES FOR NOW...WITH SOME LIKELIES IN THE EASTERN
ZONES. AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THU
NIGHT DUE TO THE MODEL QPF TIMING DIFFERENCES. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THU NIGHT. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...FAVORING A CHILLY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. BIGGEST CHANGES
WERE TO RAISE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
AND TO RAISE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NE FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND NW FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL HELP ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. THE COLD AIR REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
REMAINS. IT WILL BE CHILLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE COLD AIR APPEARS TO RETREAT TO THE EAST A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN AIR THAT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AGAIN INCREASES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. YET
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BEFORE COOLING OFF AGAIN MONDAY. STC
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE ARE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING THAT MAY
AFFECT KMLS AND KBHK. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
VFR INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
DURING THE DAY AND AFFECT KLVM. SINGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/050 033/043 023/032 016/035 023/043 023/037 023/035
10/B 13/W 35/J 33/J 12/J 43/J 33/J
LVM 021/044 028/038 018/029 010/034 019/043 022/034 021/043
00/N 24/W 33/J 32/J 13/J 42/J 33/J
HDN 024/049 031/044 024/033 014/035 022/043 022/039 022/038
20/B 14/W 45/J 32/J 12/J 43/J 32/J
MLS 027/050 032/045 025/032 015/032 021/041 022/037 019/035
20/B 04/W 55/J 21/E 12/J 32/J 22/J
4BQ 023/048 029/044 024/032 015/032 020/042 022/037 020/037
20/B 03/W 45/J 22/J 12/J 32/J 22/J
BHK 023/046 029/046 022/028 013/028 016/036 019/034 016/033
20/B 04/W 65/J 21/E 12/J 22/J 22/J
SHR 019/044 026/042 021/031 011/033 018/044 019/038 019/042
20/B 03/W 34/J 43/J 12/J 43/J 33/J
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
313 PM MDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ONE FRONT ALREADY
PULLED THROUGH THE AREA AND A SECOND ONE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. RADAR SHOWS
SHOWER ACTIVITIES WITH ACTIVITY STRONGEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. FORECAST GETS QUIET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SO ALL
WEATHER CONCERNS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
AREAS FOR GREATEST SNOWFALL TONIGHT WILL BE WHERE UPSLOPE HAS A
CHANCE TO WORK WITH THE INSTABILITY. LIGHTNING OBSERVED BY HAVRE
SO COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS NORTH OF THE AREA AND LAPSE RATE PROGS
SHOW WESTERN ZONES DESTABILIZE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STEEP IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA SO
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE FAVORED IN A WRAP AROUND FLOW ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA LOW PRESSURE. SNOW ADVISORIES FOR
LIVINGSTON AND PARADISE VALLEY LOOK GOOD ALONG WITH THE FOOTHILLS
AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. SOUTHEAST MONTANA MAY STRUGGLE AS
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL MILD AND BEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION DIVES
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK
UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND EXPECT WIND TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY SEE
LOCAL PROBLEMS IS JUDITH GAP THOUGH BURST OF SNOW WILL BE SHORTER.
FOR AREAS NOT COVERED BY ADVISORIES JUST THINK WEATHER IS
TRAVELING SO FAST THAT 90 MINUTES OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
THE GREATEST IMPACT AND ROAD SURFACES MAY BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR
MOST OF THE THAT TIME.
SNOWFALL CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHES DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA. RUC MODEL
CONTINUES TO TREND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION
BUT SUSPECT BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND SHERIDAN COUNTY STAND THE BEST
CHANCE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING.
UNSTABLE TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON
THE COOL SIDE. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP SO ANTICIPATE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA. AFTER A
COOLER NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY SEES WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH LEESIDE TROUGHING. THIS WILL BRING A MILD
WARMUP AND KEEP THINGS DRY. PATTERN DOES NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH FOR
WINDS TO BECOME A PROBLEM AT LIVINGSTON AS A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEAKEN PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT IF SHORTWAVE
TIMING CHANGES LIVINGSTON WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...FAVORING A A COOLER AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH THE REGION
WITH STRONG...GUSTY NW WINDS. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...BUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP PRECIP TO
A MINIMUM IN THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
ANOTHER POLAR AIRMASS SLIDES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AT THE SAME TIME A TROWAL-
TYPE FEATURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
AND SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD AIR...850 MB TEMPS WILL
DROP WELL BELOW 0C...TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT
SNOW. UPSLOPE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY ALSO HELP ENHANCE
SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
UNSTABLE AND SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE
COLDER AIR. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
SOME WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT. AS 850 MB TEMPS
RISE ABOVE 0C SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. BEYOND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
STC
&&
.AVIATION...
N TO NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...WITH AREAS OF LIFR
LIKELY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION INTO
TUESDAY. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/044 028/051 031/047 026/036 020/038 022/046 027/048
63/W 11/B 24/W 33/J 22/J 11/B 22/W
LVM 023/038 025/046 027/042 020/034 014/038 018/046 025/045
93/W 11/N 34/W 33/J 22/J 21/B 22/W
HDN 030/044 027/050 031/048 026/037 018/039 021/046 025/049
84/W 11/B 24/W 44/J 22/J 11/B 23/W
MLS 030/044 028/051 031/049 028/036 019/037 021/044 025/047
94/W 21/B 13/W 44/J 22/J 11/B 22/W
4BQ 030/042 026/049 029/048 026/037 019/038 020/045 025/047
+5/W 21/B 13/W 34/J 22/J 11/B 22/W
BHK 027/039 026/047 027/047 025/034 017/034 018/039 022/043
+4/W 31/B 13/W 45/J 22/J 11/B 22/W
SHR 028/039 021/048 024/046 023/036 015/038 017/047 023/046
+5/W 21/B 13/W 33/J 23/J 11/B 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES 36>38-57-58.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR ZONES 56-63-66.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 64-65.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 99.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONE 98.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN
THIS PERIOD.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT 18 HOURS. 120 KNOT 300 MB JET STREAK OVER
NEW MEXICO AT 12Z THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUNCH EASTWARD. AREA
OF 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS (AROUND 100 METERS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AT 12Z) WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR WEST
TODAY SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING...BUT THE
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE AS IT MOVES EAST. WE WERE ALREADY STARTING
TO SEE SIGNS OF THAT WITH REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 310 PM. HIGH
RESOLUTION RAP MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER (BUT WEAKER) BAND WILL
DEVELOP FARTHER EAST WITH A NEW AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...
AND THAT APPEARS REASONABLE. IN GENERAL...SLOWED DOWN THE ENDING
OF PCPN TONIGHT AND ALSO THE DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD MAINLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT PARTS OF KNOX AND
POSSIBLY ANTELOPE COUNTY MAY SEE A BIT MORE THAN THAT BEFORE 06Z.
MEASURABLE PCPN SHOULD END IN ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT
DECREASE SOME LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S SEEMS ON
TRACK.
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT SOME
LOW POPS GOING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS
IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY AND SEEMED A BIT
OVERDONE. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ADD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT LEFT THAT PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS 45
TO 50 NORTH AND 50 TO 55 SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
LEFT THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DRY...WITH MAIN FORCING
EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY 60S THURSDAY AND MAINLY 50S FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. A LARGE COLD
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS INTO THE -8C TO -14C
RANGE SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEING
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE 12Z GFS. BRIEF RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CLIP EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WILL
INCLUDE A SMALL POP IN OUR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH -8C TO -18C 850MB
TEMPS ADVERTISED FOR NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY AT KOMA AND KLNK AS COLD AIR
CONTINUES SPREADING SOUTH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE DEFORMATION
BAND OF SNOW IN CNTRL AND NRN NEBRASKA SHOULD MOVE INTO KOFK...IT
COULD WEAKEN SOME AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE OR REDEVELOP ACROSS KLNK
AND KOMA AREAS LATER THIS EVENING. THUS ONLY TEMPO GROUPS OF
PRECIP WERE MENTIONED AT KLNK AND KOMA AND WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN PLACE...PRECIP TYPE WAS CARRIED AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NOW. AT KOFK...COLDER AIR IN PLACE SHOULD BRING
MAINLY SNOW WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BEFORE PRECIP
BAND WEAKENS/SHIFTS E LATER THIS EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT AND SOME DECREASE IN NNW WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR LATE. WITH HEATING ON WED...CIGS COULD
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA...BUT PROBABLY ABOVE FL030...ALONG
WITH SOME INCREASE IN NW SFC WINDS AT ALL SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1043 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LATE
WINTER STORM SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9:30 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS BEING RECORDED BY
ANY OF OUR SITES...RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THAT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW SPOTS OVER OUR NC COUNTIES MAY BE SEEING A VERY LIGHT
DRIZZLE OR MIST. I WOULDN`T BET ON THAT THOUGH. MOST PLACES WILL
STAY DRY OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE FEAR.
WHAT THIS HAS DONE IS SCOUR OUT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND NOW ONLY THE
MOISTURE SEEN ON RAP TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT MAINLY BELOW 800 MB.
THE SYNOPTIC SETTING AT THE SURFACE SHOWS COLD AIR DAMMING AND
THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH NO FORCING ALOFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXPECT
STRATUS CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. CURRENT SATELLITE IS SHOWING A BREAK
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST BUT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE WEAKENS EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL
IN OVERNIGHT.
WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN LEAN TOWARD A COOLER SOLUTION AS SEEN IN THE
MET MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH MAY BE A BIT TO COLD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 30S BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND A NORTH
WIND THE EXPECTATION OF FROST IS NOT HIGH FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WESTERLY WIND FLOW IN A PARCHED AIR-MASS
PERCHED ABOVE 8000 FEET WILL COVER THE AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PATCHY -RA/-DZ MAY LINGER OVER OUR FAR NE ZONES VERY
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 12Z/8AM...AS A STORM SYSTEM CIRCULATION
THROWS MOISTURE OVER-TOP AN ERODING HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE. RESIDUAL
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WNW MAY
ALSO AID IN LIGHT PCPN AROUND THIS TIME.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY INCREASE
IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY UP THROUGH 800 MB BUT THIS LOOKS INADEQUATE
TO GENERATE ANY PCPN SO NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES ARE PLANNED. NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AND IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...MAINLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE WED/EARLY THU EXPECTED.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE A STRUGGLE EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
WEAKENING WEDGE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON NE TRAJECTORIES...AND
AGAIN VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY WE MAY BE GREETED WITH CLOUDS. BREAKS
AND PERIODS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HOWEVER SHOULD PERIODICALLY
PREVAIL...THIS MOST FAVORABLE THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM SW FLOW WILL RETURN AT THE SFC
WHILE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESIDES...MAKING FOR OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL AID IN THE FORWARD PUSHING
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS. AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ALOFT WITH WESTERLY
WINDS...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ONLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
THAT INFILTRATED INTO THE AREA BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THE SYSTEM.
INTO SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE AND QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. THOUGH WILL NOTE MUCH
COOLER AIR INFILTRATES IN...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
STALLED SYSTEM OFFSHORE SLOWLY RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
WITH ABUNDANT WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY IFR
ALONG AND N OF A KLBT TO KILM LINE...AND MVFR TO THE S OF THAT LINE.
CIGS HAVE SHOWN A LOWERING TREND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MOS
GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING S THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN TIMING. OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS IN -DZBR AND CIGS COULD FLIRT WITH LIFR LEVELS
MAINLY AT KILM/KCRE AS A SURFACE WAVE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT TO THE
S OF THE TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY MORNING SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MVFR AT
MOST TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO LOW VFR
LEVELS...POSSIBLY SCATTERED AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SE-SW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:30 PM TUESDAY...HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR OUR SC WATERS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR OUR NC WATERS THROUGH 6 AM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IS NOW
LOCATED AROUND 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. WITH THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS ARE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND ARE BLOWING AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING AT 7.5 FEET AT FRYING PAN
SHOALS AND 4.5 FEET AT BUOY 41110 OFF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE LOW EXITING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE CAROLINAS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES OVERNIGHT...THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE. SO AT THE TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND NORTH
OF LITTLE RIVER INLET THROUGH 6 AM.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL AN IMPROVED MARINE FORECAST AS WINDS
FALL OFF IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE. N WINDS
EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL EASE AND BECOME WSW LATER IN THE DAY AS LOWER
PRESSURE TO THE NE PULLS AWAY...AND ALLOWS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO LOOSEN CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL GO NW-N THURSDAY AFTN
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODERATE NE WIND SHOULD
BE EXPECTED DAYBREAK FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD OF
THE COASTAL WATERS MIDDAY FRIDAY. SEAS SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE NE
WAVE ENERGY ON THE WANE WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SMALLER BUT A
MYRIAD OF S-SE MINOR WAVE TRAINS OF DIFFERING WAVE PERIODS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS SEAS WILL BUILD TO
2-4 FT...WITH SOME POSSIBLE 5FOOTERS IN THE OUTER WATERS OF AMZ-252
AND 250...AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS AND DECENT SWELL
ENERGY IS TAPPED INTO ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS QUIET BACK DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH SEAS ON SUNDAY MAINLY 2-3 FT AND
MAINLY NORTH WINDS 10-14 KTS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/DRH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SGL/DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
930 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LATE
WINTER STORM SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9:30 PM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS BEING RECORDED BY
ANY OF OUR SITES...RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THAT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW SPOTS OVER OUR NC COUNTIES MAY BE SEEING A VERY LIGHT
DRIZZLE OR MIST. I WOULDN`T BET ON THAT THOUGH. MOST PLACES WILL
STAY DRY OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE FEAR.
WHAT THIS HAS DONE IS SCOUR OUT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND NOW ONLY THE
MOISTURE SEEN ON RAP TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT MAINLY BELOW 800 MB.
THE SYNOPTIC SETTING AT THE SURFACE SHOWS COLD AIR DAMMING AND
THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH NO FORCING ALOFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXPECT
STRATUS CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. CURRENT SATELLITE IS SHOWING A BREAK
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST BUT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE WEAKENS EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL
IN OVERNIGHT.
WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN LEAN TOWARD A COOLER SOLUTION AS SEEN IN THE
MET MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH MAY BE A BIT TO COLD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 30S BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND A NORTH
WIND THE EXPECTATION OF FROST IS NOT HIGH FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WESTERLY WIND FLOW IN A PARCHED AIR-MASS
PERCHED ABOVE 8000 FEET WILL COVER THE AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PATCHY -RA/-DZ MAY LINGER OVER OUR FAR NE ZONES VERY
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 12Z/8AM...AS A STORM SYSTEM CIRCULATION
THROWS MOISTURE OVER-TOP AN ERODING HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE. RESIDUAL
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WNW MAY
ALSO AID IN LIGHT PCPN AROUND THIS TIME.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY INCREASE
IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY UP THROUGH 800 MB BUT THIS LOOKS INADEQUATE
TO GENERATE ANY PCPN SO NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES ARE PLANNED. NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AND IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...MAINLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE WED/EARLY THU EXPECTED.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE A STRUGGLE EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
WEAKENING WEDGE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON NE TRAJECTORIES...AND
AGAIN VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY WE MAY BE GREETED WITH CLOUDS. BREAKS
AND PERIODS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HOWEVER SHOULD PERIODICALLY
PREVAIL...THIS MOST FAVORABLE THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM SW FLOW WILL RETURN AT THE SFC
WHILE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESIDES...MAKING FOR OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL AID IN THE FORWARD PUSHING
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS. AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ALOFT WITH WESTERLY
WINDS...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ONLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
THAT INFILTRATED INTO THE AREA BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THE SYSTEM.
INTO SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE AND QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. THOUGH WILL NOTE MUCH
COOLER AIR INFILTRATES IN...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
STALLED SYSTEM OFFSHORE SLOWLY RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
WITH ABUNDANT WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY IFR
ALONG AND N OF A KLBT TO KILM LINE...AND MVFR TO THE S OF THAT LINE.
CIGS HAVE SHOWN A LOWERING TREND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MOS
GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING S THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN TIMING. OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS IN -DZBR AND CIGS COULD FLIRT WITH LIFR LEVELS
MAINLY AT KILM/KCRE AS A SURFACE WAVE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT TO THE
S OF THE TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY MORNING SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MVFR AT
MOST TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO LOW VFR
LEVELS..POSSIBLY SCATTERED AT TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SE-SW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:30 PM TUESDAY...HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR OUR SC WATERS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR OUR NC WATERS THROUGH 6 AM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IS NOW
LOCATED AROUND 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. WITH THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS ARE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND ARE BLOWING AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING AT 7.5 FEET AT FRYING PAN
SHOALS AND 4.5 FEET AT BUOY 41110 OFF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE LOW EXITING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE CAROLINAS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES OVERNIGHT...THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE. SO AT THE TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND NORTH
OF LITTLE RIVER INLET THROUGH 6 AM.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL AN IMPROVED MARINE FORECAST AS WINDS
FALL OFF IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE. N WINDS
EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL EASE AND BECOME WSW LATER IN THE DAY AS LOWER
PRESSURE TO THE NE PULLS AWAY...AND ALLOWS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO LOOSEN CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL GO NW-N THURSDAY AFTN
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODERATE NE WIND SHOULD
BE EXPECTED DAYBREAK FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD OF
THE COASTAL WATERS MIDDAY FRIDAY. SEAS SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE NE
WAVE ENERGY ON THE WANE WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SMALLER BUT A
MYRIAD OF S-SE MINOR WAVE TRAINS OF DIFFERING WAVE PERIODS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS SEAS WILL BUILD TO
2-4 FT...WITH SOME POSSIBLE 5FOOTERS IN THE OUTER WATERS OF AMZ-252
AND 250...AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS AND DECENT SWELL
ENERGY IS TAPPED INTO ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS QUIET BACK DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH SEAS ON SUNDAY MAINLY 2-3 FT AND
MAINLY NORTH WINDS 10-14 KTS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/DRH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SGL/DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
824 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 PM TUE...QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADV FOR
OBX DARE AND HYDE COUNTY AS HAVE GOTTEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF
SOUNDSIDE FLOODING ON HATTERAS ISLAND. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING
40-45 KT FROM THE N MOST OF THE WATERS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
THESE STRONG WINDS DIMINISHING AROUND MID EVENING AND RUC 3 HRLY
PRES RISES DIMINISH QUITE RAPIDLY AS LOW OFFSHORE MIGRATES
EASTWARD. HAVE GALES AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ENDING AT 11 PM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 245 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS 1002MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NC/SC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST AIDING IN SFC
CYCLOGENESIS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...AND
TRANSITION MORE TO LIGHT RAIN/AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST INTO THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS 30-40MPH FOR THE OUTER
BANKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TRICKY FOR WED...AS
INSITU DAMMING/WEDGE CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS HELPING TO SCOUR OUT LOW CLOUDS. WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S/LOWER 60S. STILL EXPECT
PATCHY DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WED
MORNING...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BUILDING
HEIGHTS AND RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMING AND RELATIVELY
DRY PERIOD FOR THU-SAT...THEN UPPER TROFFING WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
COLDER AND POSSIBLY WET PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHRT WV WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. SUPPORT FOR PRECIP IS WEAK AND CONTINUED WITH JUST 20% POPS FOR
NOW. MAIN EFFECT FROM COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE TO SCOUR OUT
WEDGE AIR MASS...REPLACED BY MARITIME HIGH PRES FROM W FOR THU AND
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHFT WV WILL PUSH IN ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT LATE SAT
THROUGH SUNDAY. MSTR WILL BE LIMITED WITH GULF INFLOW CUT OFF ALOFT
AND HAVE KEPT POPS AT JUST 20%.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE
SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG STALLED BNDRY TO S OF AREA NEXT WEEK BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING WITH GFS ABOUT 12-24 HOURS FASTER. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN WINTER WX THREAT WITH COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER ERN
NC...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WARMER. LOW CONDIFIDENCE FCST AT THIS
TIME AND HAVE LEANED TO HPC MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME AND JUST
INDICATING 30% POPS FOR RAIN ON TUE.
LEANED TO PREVIOUS FCST AND EURO MOS FOR MAX TEMPS THU AND FRI WITH
UPR 60S INLAND AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS. SAT LOOKS LIKE WARMEST DAY
WITH PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW AND HIGHS IN LOWER 70S INLAND. MUCH COLDER
FOR REST OF PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 SUNDAY...AND ONLY AROUND 50
MON AND TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM TUE...IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN MOIST AND WITH A STRONG INVERSION CONTINUING...CEILING
MAY EVEN LOWER TO LIFR AT TIMES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
INVERSION STRENGTHENING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...BUT
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH THE TIMING OF ENDING OF IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS THE
STRONG INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH VERY LIGHT LOW LEVEL
FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS/PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE
AROUND NC THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE WED EVENING
BUT EXPECTED TO LIFT AS COLD FRONT MOVERS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY WILL BRING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 515 PM TUE...UPGRADED ALL WATERS TO GALES AS CURRENT OBS
GUSTING 35-45 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS. 3 HRLY PRES RISES
MAXIMIZED THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHEREAFTER WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
QUITE RAPIDLY AS LOW PULLS AWAY AND FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
AS OF 245 PM TUE...GUSTY N/NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE AND STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CURRENT OBS SHOW N
WINDS 20-30KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35KT...AND SEAS 10-15FT NORTH AND
7-10FT SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NC/SC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS PEAKING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE
TONIGHT. N/NE WINDS 10-15KT EARLY WED...VEERING AND BECOMING SE
IN THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. ELEVATED SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR
SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY SOUTHERN WATERS, AND THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO
15 KT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS SATURDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO NRLY 15-20 KT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FT BRIEFLY FRI INTO EARLY
SAT...THEN BUILD AGAIN TO 5-7 FT FOR OUTER PORTIONS SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 515 PM TUE...ISSUED SHORT DURATION COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR SOUND SIDE DARE/HYDE COUNTIES ON THE OBX AS SEVERAL REPORTS OF
FLOODING ON HATTERAS ISLAND. WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING ABOVE 40 KT
WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY
LATER THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS AS LONG DURATION OF STRONG N/NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FEET EXPECTED WITH WAVE RUNUP
AND MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME MINOR
OCEAN OVERWASH IN MORE VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG HWY 12 DURING THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...ALTHOUGH A CALL TO DARE CO 911 THIS AFTERNOON
INDICATED NO ISSUES AS OF YET ALONG THE NRN OBX OCEANFRONT. MINOR
WATER RISES OF A FOOT OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PAMLICO SOUND AS WELL.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103-
104.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-135-150-
152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/DAG
NEAR TERM...TL/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...TL/BM/JBM
MARINE...TL/CQD/JBM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TL/SK/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
744 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LATE
WINTER STORM SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 PM TUESDAY...FINAL PATCHES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE FADING AS
THE MOVE SW ACROSS OUR NC COUNTIES. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MOST
PLACES WILL STAY DRY. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE FEAR.
WHAT THIS HAS DONE IS SCOUR OUT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND NOW ONLY THE
MOISTURE SEEN ON RAP TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT MAINLY BELOW 800 MB.
THE SYNOPTIC SETTING AT THE SURFACE SHOWS COLD AIR DAMMING AND
THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH NO FORCING ALOFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXPECT
STRATUS CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. CURRENT SATELLITE IS SHOWING A BREAK
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST BUT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE WEAKENS EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL
IN OVERNIGHT.
WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN LEAN TOWARD A COOLER SOLUTION AS SEEN IN THE
MET MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH MAY BE A BIT TO COLD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 30S BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND A NORTH
WIND THE EXPECTATION OF FROST IS NOT HIGH FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WESTERLY WIND FLOW IN A PARCHED AIR-MASS
PERCHED ABOVE 8000 FEET WILL COVER THE AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PATCHY -RA/-DZ MAY LINGER OVER OUR FAR NE ZONES VERY
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 12Z/8AM...AS A STORM SYSTEM CIRCULATION
THROWS MOISTURE OVER-TOP AN ERODING HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE. RESIDUAL
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WNW MAY
ALSO AID IN LIGHT PCPN AROUND THIS TIME.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY INCREASE
IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY UP THROUGH 800 MB BUT THIS LOOKS INADEQUATE
TO GENERATE ANY PCPN SO NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES ARE PLANNED. NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AND IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...MAINLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE WED/EARLY THU EXPECTED.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE A STRUGGLE EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
WEAKENING WEDGE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON NE TRAJECTORIES...AND
AGAIN VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY WE MAY BE GREETED WITH CLOUDS. BREAKS
AND PERIODS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HOWEVER SHOULD PERIODICALLY
PREVAIL...THIS MOST FAVORABLE THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM SW FLOW WILL RETURN AT THE SFC
WHILE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESIDES...MAKING FOR OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL AID IN THE FORWARD PUSHING
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS. AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ALOFT WITH WESTERLY
WINDS...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ONLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
THAT INFILTRATED INTO THE AREA BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THE SYSTEM.
INTO SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE AND QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. THOUGH WILL NOTE MUCH
COOLER AIR INFILTRATES IN...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
STALLED SYSTEM OFFSHORE SLOWLY RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
WITH ABUNDANT WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY IFR
ALONG AND N OF A KLBT TO KILM LINE...AND MVFR TO THE S OF THAT LINE.
CIGS HAVE SHOWN A LOWERING TREND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MOS
GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING S THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN TIMING. OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS IN -DZBR AND CIGS COULD FLIRT WITH LIFR LEVELS
MAINLY AT KILM/KCRE AS A SURFACE WAVE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT TO THE
S OF THE TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY MORNING SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MVFR AT
MOST TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO LOW VFR
LEVELS..POSSIBLY SCATTERED AT TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SE-SW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
LATEST OBS SHOWING GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KTS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IS NOW
LOCATED AROUND 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. WITH THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS ARE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND ARE BLOWING AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING AT 7.5 FEET AT FRYING PAN
SHOALS AND 4.5 FEET AT BUOY 41110 OFF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE LOW EXITING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE CAROLINAS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES OVERNIGHT...THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE. SO AT THE TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND NORTH
OF LITTLE RIVER INLET THROUGH 6 AM.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL AN IMPROVED MARINE FORECAST AS WINDS
FALL OFF IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE. N WINDS
EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL EASE AND BECOME WSW LATER IN THE DAY AS LOWER
PRESSURE TO THE NE PULLS AWAY...AND ALLOWS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO LOOSEN CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL GO NW-N THURSDAY AFTN
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODERATE NE WIND SHOULD
BE EXPECTED DAYBREAK FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD OF
THE COASTAL WATERS MIDDAY FRIDAY. SEAS SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE NE
WAVE ENERGY ON THE WANE WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SMALLER BUT A
MYRIAD OF S-SE MINOR WAVE TRAINS OF DIFFERING WAVE PERIODS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS SEAS WILL BUILD TO
2-4 FT...WITH SOME POSSIBLE 5FOOTERS IN THE OUTER WATERS OF AMZ-252
AND 250...AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS AND DECENT SWELL
ENERGY IS TAPPED INTO ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS QUIET BACK DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH SEAS ON SUNDAY MAINLY 2-3 FT AND
MAINLY NORTH WINDS 10-14 KTS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/SGL/DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
107 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LIGHT ECHOES MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE SURFACE OBS HAVE REPORTED
PRECIPITATION...SO DO NOT THINK ANY IS REACHING THE GROUND YET.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY SPREADING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING IN GGW SO
THINK THIS IS A VIABLE SOLUTION. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING AND IS PROGGED TO BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES...EXPECTED LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...AND LOW SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...DO NOT THINK SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...DECIDED TO LET THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT EXPIRE AS
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FARTHER SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WOULD SUGGEST.
AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TREND DRYER FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM BURKE AND WARD COUNTIES EAST TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION.
ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SCATTERED MORNING SPRINKLES OVER
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ALL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TODAY. AS A RESULT...REMOVED MENTION OF A WINTRY MIX
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FROM TODAY`S FORECAST.
FURTHERMORE...IF THE WEAKER/FARTHER SOUTH TREND CONTINUES WITH THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EFFECT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A LOT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE 12Z RUNS ARE IN TO MAKE A NEW SNOW FORECAST...BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL BE LESS THAN 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE LATEST RAP / HRRR SUGGESTING THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS GENERAL IDEA...HAVE DECREASED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT RAMP THEM UP AGAIN
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN POPS COULD BE TOO HIGH
IN THE NORTH IF THE DEFORMATION AXIS / PRECIPITATION SETS UP AS
PER THE RAP...AND ALREADY DECIDED TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
REFLECT THAT AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE PRECIP TYPES
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENT PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE SOUTHEAST TO BISMARCK TO LINTON/ELLENDALE. WARM ADVECTION
BEHIND A WARM FRONT WAS KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION WAS MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SUSPECT A FEW SPOTS OF FREEZING RAIN - THOUGH NOTHING
WIDESPREAD.
CONFIDENCE IN MORNING/AFTERNOON TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN IS
LOW...BUT MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
DEVELOP FROM MONTANA EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...DEVELOPING
NORTH OF A LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
MAINLY RAIN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH AND TO THE LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE...COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL BE PULLED INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...AND RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
NORTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING SOUTH. EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS
LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FOR THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
THIS TRANSLATES TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED INTO
IOWA/NEBRASKA AND MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS TUESDAY WILL HAVE JUST A CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE PASSING OF SEVERAL UPPER
WAVES...EACH OF WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES ALREADY TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...AND THEN CROSSES THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE POTENTIALLY STRONGEST WAVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IN THE THURSDAY / FRIDAY TIME FRAME...HOWEVER
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING
THE TIMING. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH FOR POPS WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY...LASTING
INTO FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
REGARDING POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TYPES...OVERALL FAVORED SNOW...BUT
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYTIME COULD LEAD TO RAIN AT TIMES
MIXING IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEGINNING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW OVER KDIK-KBIS-KJMS BETWEEN 03Z-04Z. IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-94 TERMINAL
AERODROMES...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 03Z-12Z.
TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY TROUBLESHOOTING COMMS ISSUES AT THE KMOT
ASOS. A NOTAM HAS BEEN ISSUED AND AN AMD NOT SKED WAS INCLUDED IN
THE KMOT TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
NOTE...ICE IS AFFECTING MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS AND UNTIL THAT ICE
CLEARS...SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS ARE LIKELY.
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS...IN THE MISSOURI
RIVER BASIN...
THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR WILLISTON AFFECTING WILLIAMS AND MCKENZIE
COUNTIES. MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THE RIVER NEAR WILLISTON BECOMES FREE OF ICE.
IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...
SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY. MINOR FLOODING
IS FORECAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...TM/AJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1006 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FARTHER SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WOULD SUGGEST.
AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TREND DRYER FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM BURKE AND WARD COUNTIES EAST TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION.
ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SCATTERED MORNING SPRINKLES OVER
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ALL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TODAY. AS A RESULT...REMOVED MENTION OF A WINTRY MIX
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FROM TODAY`S FORECAST.
FURTHERMORE...IF THE WEAKER/FARTHER SOUTH TREND CONTINUES WITH THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EFFECT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A LOT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE 12Z RUNS ARE IN TO MAKE A NEW SNOW FORECAST...BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL BE LESS THAN 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE LATEST RAP / HRRR SUGGESTING THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS GENERAL IDEA...HAVE DECREASED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT RAMP THEM UP AGAIN
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN POPS COULD BE TOO HIGH
IN THE NORTH IF THE DEFORMATION AXIS / PRECIPITATION SETS UP AS
PER THE RAP...AND ALREADY DECIDED TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
REFLECT THAT AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE PRECIP TYPES
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENT PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE SOUTHEAST TO BISMARCK TO LINTON/ELLENDALE. WARM ADVECTION
BEHIND A WARM FRONT WAS KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION WAS MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SUSPECT A FEW SPOTS OF FREEZING RAIN - THOUGH NOTHING
WIDESPREAD.
CONFIDENCE IN MORNING/AFTERNOON TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN IS
LOW...BUT MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
DEVELOP FROM MONTANA EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...DEVELOPING
NORTH OF A LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
MAINLY RAIN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH AND TO THE LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE...COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL BE PULLED INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...AND RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
NORTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING SOUTH. EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS
LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FOR THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
THIS TRANSLATES TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED INTO
IOWA/NEBRASKA AND MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS TUESDAY WILL HAVE JUST A CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE PASSING OF SEVERAL UPPER
WAVES...EACH OF WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES ALREADY TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...AND THEN CROSSES THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE POTENTIALLY STRONGEST WAVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IN THE THURSDAY / FRIDAY TIME FRAME...HOWEVER
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING
THE TIMING. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH FOR POPS WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY...LASTING
INTO FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
REGARDING POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TYPES...OVERALL FAVORED SNOW...BUT
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYTIME COULD LEAD TO RAIN AT TIMES
MIXING IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
LIGHT RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR KISN
AND SPREAD TO KMOT/KBIS/KDIK BY 18Z...AND TO KJMS BY 00Z. RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AT KMOT/KISN AROUND 21-00Z AND AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS
00-02Z. MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES AFT 00Z. CIGS BECOMING IFR AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS WITH LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
NOTE...ICE IS AFFECTING MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS AND UNTIL THAT ICE
CLEARS...SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS ARE LIKELY.
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS...IN THE MISSOURI
RIVER BASIN...
THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR WILLISTON AFFECTING WILLIAMS AND MCKENZIE
COUNTIES. MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THE RIVER NEAR WILLISTON BECOMES FREE OF ICE.
IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...
SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY. MINOR FLOODING
IS FORECAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...TM/AJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
712 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE LATEST RAP / HRRR SUGGESTING THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS GENERAL IDEA...HAVE DECREASED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT RAMP THEM UP AGAIN
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN POPS COULD BE TOO HIGH
IN THE NORTH IF THE DEFORMATION AXIS / PRECIPITATION SETS UP AS
PER THE RAP...AND ALREADY DECIDED TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
REFLECT THAT AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE PRECIP TYPES
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENT PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE SOUTHEAST TO BISMARCK TO LINTON/ELLENDALE. WARM ADVECTION
BEHIND A WARM FRONT WAS KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION WAS MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SUSPECT A FEW SPOTS OF FREEZING RAIN - THOUGH NOTHING
WIDESPREAD.
CONFIDENCE IN MORNING/AFTERNOON TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN IS
LOW...BUT MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
DEVELOP FROM MONTANA EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...DEVELOPING
NORTH OF A LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
MAINLY RAIN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH AND TO THE LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE...COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL BE PULLED INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...AND RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
NORTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING SOUTH. EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS
LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FOR THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
THIS TRANSLATES TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED INTO
IOWA/NEBRASKA AND MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS TUESDAY WILL HAVE JUST A CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE PASSING OF SEVERAL UPPER
WAVES...EACH OF WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES ALREADY TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...AND THEN CROSSES THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE POTENTIALLY STRONGEST WAVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IN THE THURSDAY / FRIDAY TIME FRAME...HOWEVER
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING
THE TIMING. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH FOR POPS WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY...LASTING
INTO FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
REGARDING POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TYPES...OVERALL FAVORED SNOW...BUT
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYTIME COULD LEAD TO RAIN AT TIMES
MIXING IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
LIGHT RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR KISN
AND SPREAD TO KMOT/KBIS/KDIK BY 18Z...AND TO KJMS BY 00Z. RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AT KMOT/KISN AROUND 21-00Z AND AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS
00-02Z. MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES AFT 00Z. CIGS BECOMING IFR AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS WITH LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
NOTE...ICE IS AFFECTING MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS AND UNTIL THAT ICE
CLEARS...SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS ARE LIKELY.
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS...IN THE MISSOURI
RIVER BASIN...
THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR WILLISTON AFFECTING WILLIAMS AND MCKENZIE
COUNTIES. MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THE RIVER NEAR WILLISTON BECOMES FREE OF ICE.
IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...
SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY. MINOR FLOODING
IS FORECAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...TM/AJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ROSEAU-WARROAD AREA WITH SNOW JUST
ABUOT OVER. WILL END SNOW IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AROUND 07Z. RUC AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS CORRECTING SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP STREAKING FROM WILLISTON-WATFORD CITY ND AREA
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN. SO ADJUSTED POPS FOR
THIS. DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER MEANS NOT MUCH MEASURABLE HITTING THE
GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES/PHASE AND WIND SPEED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN PRECIP TIMING/LOCATION/
PHASE AND AMOUNTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
RAP/HRRR FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND THEN FOCUS ON A BLENDED
SOLUTION BETWEEN THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF. WILL IGNORE THE NAM GIVEN
ITS EXTREME NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH THE GEM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF.
20 UTC RADAR DEPICTS A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP FROM LANGDON TO
CARRINGTON. STARTING TO SEE A FEW SFC REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AT
BRANDON MANITOBA AND ROLLA...BUT LATEST DVL LAPS SOUNDING STILL
SHOWING A DRY SFC TO 700 HPA DRY LAYER. WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST
MN. BY MONDAY MORNING...NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 0.5 TO 1.5
STILL SEEM REASONABLE. THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A SNOW/
FREEZING RAIN MIX AS WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT...BUT THINK ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND AND THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. STILL EXPECT SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HALLOCK TO ROSEAU TO THIEF RIVER FALLS CORRIDOR. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF GIVEN FORWARD SPEED OF THE
SNOW...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH OBSERVATIONS CAREFULLY FOR A
POSSIBLE ADVISORY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WEST TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE EAST.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK IS FROM NORTHERN MT MONDAY MORNING TO ALONG THE SD/NE
BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO IA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE MOVED THE MAIN PRECIP
SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A RESULT
OF A WEAKER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.
PRECIP LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON ONCE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT/FRONTOGENESIS BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...WILL RESULT
IN A WINTRY MIX IF NOT PURE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR WITH SNOW CHANCES FARTHER
NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 35
ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND. PRECIP TO
SLOWLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS SUB FREEZING AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP/SLICK CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT QUESTIONS
REMAIN AS TO WHERE THE PRIMARY DEFORMATION SNOW AXIS WILL SET-UP.
GFS DEPICTS IT ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST OF PIERRE SD TO
ALEXANDRIA MN WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN
THESE LOCATIONS AND THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL MISS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR 3-4 PLUS INCHES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FORMAN TO MAHNOMEN TO BAUDETTE.
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND TRENDS PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR A
WATCH...BUT WILL KEEP SPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND REMOVE IT ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND BREAK UP
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 30S.
FOR WED NIGHT-SUN...THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL...COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT SAT. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SORT OF A WEAK HYBRID LOW AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE SOME LOWER POPS. A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD BE COLD. HAVE STARTED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS FOR SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
FOR THE MOST PART KEEPING VFR CIGS THRU THE PD. SOUTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS LOW ORGANIZES TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH MONDAY
AFTN. MODELS MOS FCSTS WANT TO BRING DOWN CIGS BUT DONT SEE THAT
MUCH SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THRU MONDAY EVE BUT DID GO INTO
LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS TOWARD 00Z TUE. WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY 00Z TUES. KEPT TAF SITES DRY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
905 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...CHALLENGE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS HOW FAR NE THE
CLOUDS BUILD BACK...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT MIN TEMPS.
LATEST RUC AND 12KM NAM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LEAST AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER WILL BE CENTRAL TN VALLEY NE INTO SW VA. WILL KEEP THESE
AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY...AND OPT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY OR BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. MUCH IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS.
HOURLY TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BACK IN LINE WITH GRIDS...BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO AT LEAST TWEAK A FEW SPOTS AFTER 02Z OBSERVATIONS COME IN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 45 64 38 65 / 0 10 10 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 40 63 36 63 / 0 10 10 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 42 62 36 63 / 10 10 10 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 36 58 34 60 / 10 20 10 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1120 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH INVERTED TROUGH
RUNNING UP THROUGH THE SMOKIES. MID STATE ON NORTH SIDE OF LOW
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT RATHER TIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT AND GUSTY AT TIMES. THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
BELIEVE PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART WILL LIGHT AND LIQUID BUT
CLARKSVILLE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
10Z. RUC FORECAST SOUNDING FOR CLARKSVILLE SHOWING WARM NOSE HAS
COOLED TO 1.6 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH SURFACE TEMPS RIGHT AT
FREEZING AND PROBABLY BELOW BY 10Z.. MOISTURE IS 200 MBARS DEEP OFF
SURFACE SO THINK THIS WILL BE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED TO
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHICH WOULD NEED A LITTLE MORE DEPTH TO THE
MOISTURE. WARM NOSE AT NASHVILLE IS QUITE A BIT WARMER AT 3.5
DEGREES WITH SURFACE TEMPS FORECAST TO GO TO ABOUT 32 DEGREES LATE
NIGHT...AM LOOKING FOR ALL LIQUID LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR NASHVILLE.
CROSSVILLE`S SOUNDING IS MUCH WARMER SO ALL LIQUID IS FORECAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FIRST AT CLARKSVILLE MONDAY MORNING AND
TRANSLATE EASTWARD AS THE DAY MOVES ALONG. SLUGGISH SURFACE SYSTEM
NOT IN ANY HURRY TO PULL OUT AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOLD
BACK MAKING LITTLE OR NO PROGRESS ON MY SHIFT THIS EVENING.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
817 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AT 00Z...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ABOUT TULSA TO
BROWNWOOD TO DEL RIO. A COLD FRONT LAGGED THE TROUGH A BIT AND
EXTENDED FROM ARDMORE TO WICHITA FALLS TO MIDLAND. 00Z SOUNDINGS
SHOW PW VALUES NEAR 0.50 INCHES AND THE SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY DRY.
STILL EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. THE RAP AND OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HINT AT
SOME SHOWERS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT
FORECAST MENTIONS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. ALL IN ALL...SOME NICE SPRING WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW VFR MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KCLL AND KUTS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE HOUSTON METRO AREA...CHANCES ARE BETTER FROM KCXO
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z
AND 11Z. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP AT KCXO...KIAH...KHOU...AND KSGR BY
16Z. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE COASTAL
AREAS AT BOTH KLBX AND KGLS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WHILE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS HAVE PREVAILED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
SO FAR...LOW-LEVEL RETURN MOISTURE HAS BEEN LIMITED. AS PER LOCAL
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY OVER THE AREA.
THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG CAP...HAVE SCALED BACK THE ALREADY LOW
POPS IN FOR TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF MILD/DRY AIR SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS QUIET OVER SE TX UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS (NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT) STILL GOING WITH INCREASING
POPS OVER THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE/ZONAL UPPER FLOW PROGGED AS DIS-
TURBANCES MOVE ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAKEN-
ED CAP AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOES SEEM TO SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD
OF CHANCE PCPN FOR THE WEEKEND. TIMING LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE
WITH THIS UPCOMING FCST SO HAVE GONE WITH A MORE BROADBRUSHED AP-
PROACH WITH POP GRIDS...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE WITH THE
FRONT ON LATE SAT. COOLER WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK IF MODELS VERIFY. 41
MARINE...
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE EXTENDED CAUTION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. FRONT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW RESUMING
BY THURSDAY. NEXT FRONT EXPECTED LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 50 71 46 74 54 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 54 73 48 74 54 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 59 72 56 68 58 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1031 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
SNOW NOW FALLING ACRS MOST OF THE N AS THE BAND THAT PRODUCED
BRIEF HEAVY SNOWS IN CENTRAL WI EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SHIFTED
INTO THE N. ANOTHER SLUG OF PCPN IS HEADING NEWD FM SWRN WI. THAT
LOOKS LIKE IT WL IMPACT MAINLY C-NE WI OVERNIGHT. AS LONG AS WE
DON/T START TO GET SIGNIFICANT OVERLAP BETWEEN THE INITIAL BAND
AND THE SECOND SURGE OF PCPN...SNOWFALL AMNTS SHOULD HOLD. NO
CHANGES TO THEM PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FCST THINKING WITH RESPECT TO PCPN TYPE IN E-C
WI. STILL EXPECT WARM LAYER ALOFT TO MAKE IT NWD TO ABOUT ATG/GRB
AREAS AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RN OR RN/SN MIX WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IN E-C WI UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SOME
SLEET AND ZR ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT DON/T EXPECT THEM TO BE THE
DOMINANT PCPN TYPE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 819 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO HEADLINES THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SITUATION AS IT EVOLVES
AND COULD ALWAYS NEED TO CHANGE COURSE ON THAT.
FINALLY STARTING TO ACHIEVE SATURATION IN CENTRAL WI. DESPITE
INITIAL WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...THE PCPN INTENSITY COMBINED
WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE DRY AIR AT LOW-LEVELS WAS LEADING
TO SNOW. AND A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WAS OCCURRING.
THINK IT/S PRETTY SAFE THAT THE NW 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA WILL GET
ALMOST ALL SNOW...WITH PERHAPS JUST A LITTLE RAIN AT THE ONSET.
STILL QUESTIONS ABOUT THE SE 1/3 OF THE AREA. 00Z GRB RAOB WAS
CONSISTENT WITH FCST SOUNDINGS FOR GRB. THOSE WOULD SUPPORT ENOUGH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO GET SNOW OR MAYBE A RN/SN MIX AT THE
ONSET. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATED ENOUGH WARMING IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER LATER TNGT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING OF
THE SNOWFLAKES. BUT THE DEGREE OF WARMING IN THAT LAYER SEEMS TO
BE GETTING PRUNED BACK WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WITH THE
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS NOW PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPPORTING ALL SNOW.
AND...THAT WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH SFC LOW NOW TRACKING TOWARD
SERN WI. WL TREND THE FCST TOWARD MORE SNOW...ESP IN GRB-ATW
AREAS. LCNS TO THE S WL PROBABLY STILL GET SOME WARMING
ALOFT...BUT NOT SURE BOUNDARY LAYER WL BE COLD ENOUGH IN THOSE
AREAS TO GET MUCH ICING FM FZRA. SO TRENDED MORE TOWARD RAIN.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ABOUT 15 MIN AGO TO ACCOUNT FOR BURST OF
SHSN OCCURRING IN CENTRAL WI. UPDATED WSW WL BE OUT ASAP.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 522 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
NOT REAL KEEN ON POTENTIAL FOR MUCH FZG PCPN ACRS THE FCST AREA
OVERNIGHT. SFC WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WERE AOA FZG ACRS ABOUT THE
SRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA...AND THAT/S THE AREA WHERE WARM LAYER
ALOFT WOULD SET-UP A TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAT WOULD SUPPORT FZRA.
WL PROBABLY GET SOME FALL IN SFC TEMPS THIS EVENING...BUT WITH
CLDS THICKENING...THAT WL PROBABLY BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AT THIS POINT IT/S TOUGH TO SEE HOW SFC TEMPS WL GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN FALLING AS LIQUID TO RE-FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH
THE GROUND/OUTDOOR SURFACES.
AS FAR AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PCPN IS CONCERNED...DRY AIR
AT LOW-LEVELS CONTINUES TO REALLY PLAY HAVOC WITH THE PCPN. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING CONSIDERABLE RETURNS OVER SWRN WI AND MUCH OF SRN
MN...BUT NO PCPN REACHING THE GROUND ACCORDING TO SFC OBS FM THESE
AREAS. IN FACT...THERE AREN/T REALLY ANY CLDS AT ALL BENEATH THE
PRECIPITATING /I.E. VIRGA PRODUCING/ MID-DECK. SATURATION OF LOW-
LEVELS ACRS THE WRN/NWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD OCCUR LATER
THIS EVENING...THOUGH START TIME OF THE ADVISORY MIGHT BE A LITTLE
EARLY.
NOT READY TO MAKE SIG CHGS TO THE FCST YET AS THIS IS A VERY
COMPLEX SITN AND DON/T WANT TO MAKE CHANGES NOW ONLY TO HAVE TO
BACKTRACK A COUPLE HOURS LATER. WL CONT TO MONITOR...BUT IF
THINGS SHOW SIGNS OF EVOLOVING AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...FCST
ADJUSTMENTS WL BE NEEDED DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
VERY TOUGH FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY
DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT FLOWING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND COLD DRY
AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE BAY ON INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
THE FOX VALLEY...WITH MAINLY RAIN AT MANITOWOC INTO KEWAUNEE COUNTIES.
TO COMPLICATE MATTERS EVEN MORE...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH
AND A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE GFS/WRF THAT COULD LIMIT ICING POTENTIAL.
WAS CONTEMPLATING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE FOX VALLEY
DUE TO ICING CONCERNS...BUT 12Z ECMWF HAS ME CONCERNED THAT NARROW
RIBBON OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE FURTHER WEST. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS
TO EVENING SHIFT TO TAKE ONE LAST LOOK IF AN ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED.
MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO STURGEON BAY
LINE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO STURGEON BAY LINE...WITH
ONLY A COUPLE INCHES TO THE SOUTH. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND COULD BE MIXED WITH A LITTLE RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 30S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MEAN NW FLOW TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF LONG TERM PERIOD PROVIDING
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...ESP AFTER FRIDAY...AND A
COUPLE PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER ACTIVITY.
NEXT SYSTEM IS THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVE LOW THAT MOVES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER THEN SLIDES ESE INTO WISCONSIN. AS WAS THE CASE
WITH 19/00Z RUNS...19/12Z SHOWS A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH GFS
FARTHEST NORTH AND ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. PRECIP WOULD CHANGE TO
ALL RAIN IN SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERN
SOLUTION. FRIDAY FORECAST A COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH
MIXED PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN PART OF AREA.
BEYOND FRIDAY`S SYSTEM...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. TROF IN EAST ALLOWS FOR SEVERAL-DAY PERIOD
OF TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
COMPLEX WX SYSTEM WL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.
PCPN FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK OUT AS LOW-LEVELS SATURATE. EXPECT
A RAPID DETERIORATION IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS
AS PCPN BECOMES WIDESPREAD...WITH THE POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ013-
020>022-031-073-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>012-018-019-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
832 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO HEADLINES THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SITUATION AS IT EVOLVES
AND COULD ALWAYS NEED TO CHANGE COURSE ON THAT.
FINALLY STARTING TO ACHIEVE SATURATION IN CENTRAL WI. DESPITE
INITIAL WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...THE PCPN INTENSITY COMBINED
WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE DRY AIR AT LOW-LEVELS WAS LEADING
TO SNOW. AND A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WAS OCCURRING.
THINK IT/S PRETTY SAFE THAT THE NW 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA WILL GET
ALMOST ALL SNOW...WITH PERHAPS JUST A LITTLE RAIN AT THE ONSET.
STILL QUESTIONS ABOUT THE SE 1/3 OF THE AREA. 00Z GRB RAOB WAS
CONSISTENT WITH FCST SOUNDINGS FOR GRB. THOSE WOULD SUPPORT ENOUGH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO GET SNOW OR MAYBE A RN/SN MIX AT THE
ONSET. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATED ENOUGH WARMING IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER LATER TNGT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING OF
THE SNOWFLAKES. BUT THE DEGREE OF WARMING IN THAT LAYER SEEMS TO
BE GETTING PRUNED BACK WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...WITH THE
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS NOW PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPPORTING ALL SNOW.
AND...THAT WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH SFC LOW NOW TRACKING TOWARD
SERN WI. WL TREND THE FCST TOWARD MORE SNOW...ESP IN GRB-ATW
AREAS. LCNS TO THE S WL PROBABLY STILL GET SOME WARMING
ALOFT...BUT NOT SURE BOUNDARY LAYER WL BE COLD ENOUGH IN THOSE
AREAS TO GET MUCH ICING FM FZRA. SO TRENDED MORE TOWARD RAIN.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ABOUT 15 MIN AGO TO ACCOUNT FOR BURST OF
SHSN OCCURRING IN CENTRAL WI. UPDATED WSW WL BE OUT ASAP.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 522 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
NOT REAL KEEN ON POTENTIAL FOR MUCH FZG PCPN ACRS THE FCST AREA
OVERNIGHT. SFC WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WERE AOA FZG ACRS ABOUT THE
SRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA...AND THAT/S THE AREA WHERE WARM LAYER
ALOFT WOULD SET-UP A TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAT WOULD SUPPORT FZRA.
WL PROBABLY GET SOME FALL IN SFC TEMPS THIS EVENING...BUT WITH
CLDS THICKENING...THAT WL PROBABLY BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. AT THIS POINT IT/S TOUGH TO SEE HOW SFC TEMPS WL GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN FALLING AS LIQUID TO RE-FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH
THE GROUND/OUTDOOR SURFACES.
AS FAR AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PCPN IS CONCERNED...DRY AIR
AT LOW-LEVELS CONTINUES TO REALLY PLAY HAVOC WITH THE PCPN. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING CONSIDERABLE RETURNS OVER SWRN WI AND MUCH OF SRN
MN...BUT NO PCPN REACHING THE GROUND ACCORDING TO SFC OBS FM THESE
AREAS. IN FACT...THERE AREN/T REALLY ANY CLDS AT ALL BENEATH THE
PRECIPITATING /I.E. VIRGA PRODUCING/ MID-DECK. SATURATION OF LOW-
LEVELS ACRS THE WRN/NWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD OCCUR LATER
THIS EVENING...THOUGH START TIME OF THE ADVISORY MIGHT BE A LITTLE
EARLY.
NOT READY TO MAKE SIG CHGS TO THE FCST YET AS THIS IS A VERY
COMPLEX SITN AND DON/T WANT TO MAKE CHANGES NOW ONLY TO HAVE TO
BACKTRACK A COUPLE HOURS LATER. WL CONT TO MONITOR...BUT IF
THINGS SHOW SIGNS OF EVOLOVING AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...FCST
ADJUSTMENTS WL BE NEEDED DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
VERY TOUGH FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY
DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT FLOWING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND COLD DRY
AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE BAY ON INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
THE FOX VALLEY...WITH MAINLY RAIN AT MANITOWOC INTO KEWAUNEE COUNTIES.
TO COMPLICATE MATTERS EVEN MORE...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH
AND A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE GFS/WRF THAT COULD LIMIT ICING POTENTIAL.
WAS CONTEMPLATING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE FOX VALLEY
DUE TO ICING CONCERNS...BUT 12Z ECMWF HAS ME CONCERNED THAT NARROW
RIBBON OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE FURTHER WEST. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS
TO EVENING SHIFT TO TAKE ONE LAST LOOK IF AN ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED.
MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO STURGEON BAY
LINE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO STURGEON BAY LINE...WITH
ONLY A COUPLE INCHES TO THE SOUTH. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND COULD BE MIXED WITH A LITTLE RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 30S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MEAN NW FLOW TO CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF LONG TERM PERIOD PROVIDING
FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...ESP AFTER FRIDAY...AND A
COUPLE PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER ACTIVITY.
NEXT SYSTEM IS THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVE LOW THAT MOVES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER THEN SLIDES ESE INTO WISCONSIN. AS WAS THE CASE
WITH 19/00Z RUNS...19/12Z SHOWS A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH GFS
FARTHEST NORTH AND ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH. PRECIP WOULD CHANGE TO
ALL RAIN IN SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHERN
SOLUTION. FRIDAY FORECAST A COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH
MIXED PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN PART OF AREA.
BEYOND FRIDAY`S SYSTEM...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. TROF IN EAST ALLOWS FOR SEVERAL-DAY PERIOD
OF TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 522 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
COMPLEX WX SYSTEM WL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.
PRIMARILY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLDS ACRS THE AREA NOW...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
STARTING MID-EVENING AS CLOUD BASES LOWER AND VSBYS START GETTING
REDUCED BY FG AND PCPN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ013-020>022-031-073-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>012-018-019-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
605 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA. THE 18.12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE TWO NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE 18.12Z GFS INDICATES THIS WILL PATTERN WILL TAKE
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THEN SWING MODERATE TO
STRONG PV ADVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-500 MB
LAYER THIS EVENING AND SOME LINGERING WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
WITH 2 TO 4 UBAR/S SHOWN BY THE GFS ON THE 285K SURFACE. ALL THIS
FORCING WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THAT WERE MADE WERE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST TO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CARRYING
A 100 PERCENT CHANCE AFTER 06Z FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND THEN HAVING
A SHARPER BACK EDGE AS THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTS WEDNESDAY WHICH
ENDS UP KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DRY
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE 18.12Z NAM SHOWS A
WARMER SOLUTION THAN EITHER THE GFS OR 18.12Z ECMWF WITH THE 0C
LINE FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH ABOUT -2C
OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS. THE GFS HAS THE 0C LINE FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...JUST BARELY INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH ABOUT -3C
AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THE
0C LINE BUT CLOSER TO THE NAM WITH -2C OVER THE NORTHWEST. ALL THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THIS WARM AIR ALOFT SLIDING OUT OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ONCE THE SURFACE LOW GOES BY. THE 18.18Z RAP LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE NAM THROUGH 06Z...SO CONCERNED THAT THE WARMER
SOLUTION MAY END UP BEING CORRECT. FOR NOW...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS...BUT WITH ALL OF THEM SHOWING SOME WARM AIR
ALOFT...THE LEADS TO THE CONCERN FOR SOME SLEET IN THE TRANSITION
BETWEEN THE RAIN TO SNOW AND HAVE ADDED THIS IN AS A POSSIBLE
WEATHER TYPE. WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PREDOMINANTLY
SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I90 WITH UP TO 3 INCHES IN TAYLOR COUNTY. THUS...NOT
PLANNING ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM COMING
IN FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA. THE CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL FLATTEN OUT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BUT THEN SHIFT
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WHETHER SATURATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE
OR AFTER THE SURFACE LOW HAS PASSED BY THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS
THE QUICKEST TO BRING THE PRECIPITATION IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS PRIMARILY KEEP THE AREA DRY ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR ONCE THE LOW IS PAST THE AREA. WILL SHOW A
SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY. THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE BATTLING SOME DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE OVER THE REGION...SO FOR NOW...THIS LEADS TO 30 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
PCPN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...GRADUALLY EXITING EAST
WED MORNING. SOME MID/LOW LEVEL DRYING NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME
FIRST...AS EVIDENCED VIA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND 88-D RADAR IMAGERY.
NAM12/RAP DO A DECENT JOB WITH SHOWING A QUICKLY EXPANDING AREA OF
PCPN NORTH OF THE SFC LOW...DEPICTING THE SATURATION OF THE DRY
LAYER. -RA LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY PCPN TYPE THIS EVENING...WITH A
CHANGE OVER TO -SN AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE LOW OVERNIGHT.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF -PL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO
THE TAFS. VSBYS WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE 1-2SM RANGE WHEN THE RAIN
TO SNOW TRANSITION OCCURS - WITH ACCUMS AROUND 1 INCH POSSIBLE. AS
THE PCPN ENDS...THE WINDS WILL PICK UP WED MORNING...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY. SOME GUSTINESS CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RIECK
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
IN A NUTSHELL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT
TO TRIM BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AND TWEAK TIMING OF EXIT OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
BROAD AND RELATIVELY ROBUST LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAS LED TO LARGE AREA OF POORLY
ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN BATTLING STUBBORN LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER EASTCENTRAL
WISCONSIN ALL DAY. BEST SATURATION HAS BEEN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN GENERALLY
IN THE 1 TO 2 MILE CATEGORY GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 WHICH
SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTRED BY AREA WEB CAMS.
LATEST RAP AND TO LESSER EXTENT GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AREA OF
MODEST AND MORE FOCUSED LIFT OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND GRADUALLY
SHIFTS IT EAST INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN DRY LAYER HAS BEEN BEATEN
DOWN BY ONGOING LIGHT SNOW UPSTREAM AND MODEL FORECAST OF
PERSISTENT LIFT INTO EARLY EVENING...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO
AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GREEN BAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
THAN MAYBE AN INCH OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. RUC AND HRRR GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT ON ENDING LIGHT
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...PROBABALY AROUND 01Z
TO 02Z.
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN CONCERT ON A PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z BEFORE BAND OF MORE ORGANIZED LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
INITIAL SNOW BAND FORCED BY WAA AND FRONTOGENESIS...MAY CLIP THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2
TOWARD DAYBREAK. THEN AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...BAND SHOULD
BEGIN TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS MAINLY DRY
BUT CLOUDY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...BRISK EASTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL AS
THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT PROVIDES A BIG CHALLENGE WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF HEADLINES...OR IF HEADLINES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
WITH THE INITIAL WAA PCPN LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA OR PERHAPS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
ONSET WILL SEE PCPN REDEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM IOWA. DRY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SATURATE QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING TO
PRODUCE AN ASSORTMENT OF R/ZR/IP/S OVER LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY SNOW
OVER THE NORTH. WITH A RATHER WARM BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP THE ZR
WORDING MINIMAL. MODEL POSITION AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE AND
H850 LOWS STILL NOT SETTLED WHICH WILL IMPACT PCPN TYPE AS WELL AS
A REGION OF HEAVIER SNOW. IN ADDITION SLOWER START TO THE EVENT
WILL LIKELY SPREAD WARMER AIR NORTHWARD TO HOLD SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
BUT A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/NAM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TRACKING THE H850 LOW OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE H850 LOW AND SURFACE LOW ARE SLOWER ALONG
WITH A HINT OF A H500 NEGATIVE TROUGH FEATURE. WITH HEIGHT 700
TEMPS COLDEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INCLUDING PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL INCLUDE VILAS COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR NOW. THE UKMET AND GEM WERE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND IF THE OTHER MODELS TREND THAT WAY LATER
ON...ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE HEADLINES.
AFTER BLUSTERY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW DIMINISHING...A WEAK RIDGE
SLIDES OVER THURSDAY FOR COLD BUT QUIET CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SLIDES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW. FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
VARIABLE CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD BUT ROBUST WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA HAS GENERATED AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. FOR THE MOST PART THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN POORLY ORGANIZED. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
EAST...IT HAS ENCOUNTERED RATHER DRY AIR OVER NORTHEAST AND
EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHERE LIGHT SNOW HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO
MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
AT RHI AND PERHAPS AUW.
THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE AND PUSH ENE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND NE
WHERE LINGERING MFVR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE EVENING.
PRIMARY STORM SYSTEM THEN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOA 8000 FEET FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ005.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1216 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PUSHING A BIT FURTHER TO THE
EAST PER THE 17.11Z RAP WHICH TAKES A +1C TO +3C WARM NOSE AROUND
800MB INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SO FAR...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
SNOW IN SC MN...RATHER SLEET/UP WHERE THIS WARM LAYER IS IN PLACE.
FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR...AS NOTED ON THE 17.12Z MPX RAOB...BETWEEN 850-700MB HAS KEPT
ANY OF THE SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF RADAR RETURNS PICKING UP ON THE MID LEVEL PRECIP. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LAYER SHOULD START TO SATURATE OUT
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MORE POTENT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
THE WARM NOSE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE DONE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND ALSO
ADD IN SOME SLEET TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST
IOWA THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF I-94
TODAY...THEN FOCUS TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING A GOOD STREAM OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION MID-CLOUD PUSHING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
WARM FRONT. RADAR MOSAIC WAS SHOWING SOME ECHOES OUT OF THIS CLOUD
ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT NOTHING FALLING AT GROUND LEVEL DUE TO
DRIER LOWER LEVELS. ALSO...FARTHER UPSTREAM...RADAR MOSAIC WAS
SHOWING AN INCREASING BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ND IN STRONGER WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94 THIS MORNING. MORE
ON THIS LATER. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS HAVE
PRETTY MUCH SHUT DOWN THE TEMPERATURE SLIDE OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES.
FOR TODAY...LOOKING FOR THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN/U.S BORDER...PUSHING A WARM FRONT TO INTO THE REGION
TODAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FAIRLY STRONG 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND WARM FRONT DEPICTED BY
THE RAP/NAM...MOVES INTO AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 THIS MORNING.
THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 THIS MORNING...LASTING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...FAIRLY CONFIDENT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
FALL IN THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHER-END AMOUNTS FOCUSED ACROSS
CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS FORCING CLOSELY FOR
SNOWBURST POTENTIAL WHICH COULD LAY DOWN LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
WHICH MAY WARRANT HEADLINES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 30 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WI...TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE MONITORING STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT.
FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ON TUESDAY...THE DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IA WITH
MAIN DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SETTING UP ACROSS NEB INTO NORTHERN
MN. MODELS SHOWING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION
IN ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
MAIN CONCERN IS ON THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND STRONG
WIND.
MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE DEEP SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO UPPER MI DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD KEEP WARMER AIR WRAPPED INTO OUR AREA FOR A SLOWER TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. RIGHT NOW...MORE CONFIDENT ON
HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETTING UP FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MN...BUT WILL OF COURSE HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THE MODEL TREND FOR THE EXACT TRACK. ANY SHIFT WITH THE TRACK
FARTHER SOUTHEAST COULD EASILY SHIFT THE HEAVIER SNOW INTO OUR AREA.
OTHER FACET OF THIS STORM WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH IN THE MORE WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS
MAY WARRANT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES...OR COULD BE WINTER
HEADLINES IF HEAVIER SNOWFALL MATERIALIZES WITH THE WINDS.
LOOKS LIKE A QUIET BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MODELS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH FRONTOGENETICALLY-FORCED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SETTING UP ACROSS
THE AREA. COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...GOING
OVER TO SNOW LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND BACK TO RAIN WITH WARMING ON
FRIDAY INTO THE MID 30S/LOWER 40S.
MODELS THEN SHOWING A COLD SIGNAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. LOOKS
LIKE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
LOOKING TO TOP OFF IN THE 20S AND 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY MOVED
PAST KRST AND WILL BE PAST KLSE BY 18Z...THUS PLAN TO START BOTH
TAFS WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION. MID LEVEL VFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION AND LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS
BACK TO THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH EITHER A HIGH VFR CEILING OR HIGH
SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS AND CUTS
OFF THE MIXING. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND
ALSO KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY. APPEARS THAT THE FORCING WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT CURRENT TIMING
WOULD PLACE THIS BETWEEN 18Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
723 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PUSHING A BIT FURTHER TO THE
EAST PER THE 17.11Z RAP WHICH TAKES A +1C TO +3C WARM NOSE AROUND
800MB INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SO FAR...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
SNOW IN SC MN...RATHER SLEET/UP WHERE THIS WARM LAYER IS IN PLACE.
FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR...AS NOTED ON THE 17.12Z MPX RAOB...BETWEEN 850-700MB HAS KEPT
ANY OF THE SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF RADAR RETURNS PICKING UP ON THE MID LEVEL PRECIP. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LAYER SHOULD START TO SATURATE OUT
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MORE POTENT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
THE WARM NOSE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE DONE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND ALSO
ADD IN SOME SLEET TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST
IOWA THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF I-94
TODAY...THEN FOCUS TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING A GOOD STREAM OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION MID-CLOUD PUSHING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
WARM FRONT. RADAR MOSAIC WAS SHOWING SOME ECHOES OUT OF THIS CLOUD
ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT NOTHING FALLING AT GROUND LEVEL DUE TO
DRIER LOWER LEVELS. ALSO...FARTHER UPSTREAM...RADAR MOSAIC WAS
SHOWING AN INCREASING BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ND IN STRONGER WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94 THIS MORNING. MORE
ON THIS LATER. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS HAVE
PRETTY MUCH SHUT DOWN THE TEMPERATURE SLIDE OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES.
FOR TODAY...LOOKING FOR THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN/U.S BORDER...PUSHING A WARM FRONT TO INTO THE REGION
TODAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FAIRLY STRONG 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND WARM FRONT DEPICTED BY
THE RAP/NAM...MOVES INTO AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 THIS MORNING.
THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 THIS MORNING...LASTING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...FAIRLY CONFIDENT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
FALL IN THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHER-END AMOUNTS FOCUSED ACROSS
CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS FORCING CLOSELY FOR
SNOWBURST POTENTIAL WHICH COULD LAY DOWN LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
WHICH MAY WARRANT HEADLINES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 30 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WI...TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE MONITORING STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT.
FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ON TUESDAY...THE DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IA WITH
MAIN DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SETTING UP ACROSS NEB INTO NORTHERN
MN. MODELS SHOWING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION
IN ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
MAIN CONCERN IS ON THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND STRONG
WIND.
MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE DEEP SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO UPPER MI DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD KEEP WARMER AIR WRAPPED INTO OUR AREA FOR A SLOWER TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. RIGHT NOW...MORE CONFIDENT ON
HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETTING UP FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MN...BUT WILL OF COURSE HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THE MODEL TREND FOR THE EXACT TRACK. ANY SHIFT WITH THE TRACK
FARTHER SOUTHEAST COULD EASILY SHIFT THE HEAVIER SNOW INTO OUR AREA.
OTHER FACET OF THIS STORM WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH IN THE MORE WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS
MAY WARRANT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES...OR COULD BE WINTER
HEADLINES IF HEAVIER SNOWFALL MATERIALIZES WITH THE WINDS.
LOOKS LIKE A QUIET BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MODELS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH FRONTOGENETICALLY-FORCED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SETTING UP ACROSS
THE AREA. COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...GOING
OVER TO SNOW LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND BACK TO RAIN WITH WARMING ON
FRIDAY INTO THE MID 30S/LOWER 40S.
MODELS THEN SHOWING A COLD SIGNAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. LOOKS
LIKE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
LOOKING TO TOP OFF IN THE 20S AND 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF SNOW THAT MAY
COME THROUGH THE TAF SITES. THIS AREA OF FOCUS IS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT MUCH OF IT HAS YET TO REACH
THE GROUND OR CAUSE ANY LOWER CEILINGS/VIS. FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND START
REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT VERY HIGH IN THIS OCCURRING WITH HOW THE DRY AIR HAS BEEN
HOLDING THE SNOW BACK SO FAR. SHOULD THE SNOW DEVELOP...SOME OFF
AND ON DROPS TO MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN
8-10KFT WITH WINDS STAYING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND BEING GUSTY AT
20-30KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
417 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
AN ACTIVE SHORT WAVE PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TODAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. SOME WEAK POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN NOTED PER RAP ANALYSES ALONG LOW LEVEL
WARM FRONTAL ZONE...BUT OVERALL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DEPTH HAS
BEEN LACKING WITH THIS LEAD VORT MAX. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOIST
TONGUE WILL BE ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG VORT MAX KICKING OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. A
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OFF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO LIFT INTO THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. COMBINATION OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND NOTABLE
UPPER DVG IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130 KNOT JET CORE NOSING INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
EXPANSION OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH
EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN DYNAMICS/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA GIVEN NORTHEAST TRACK OF EASTERN MISSOURI VORT MAX. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...PREFRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD TEND TO INCREASE FRONTAL
RESPONSE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE...AND GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER DVG FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK...WILL CONTINUE
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL
EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS RANGE...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER DOES APPEAR TO BE IN PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHIFT
EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. DIFFICULT DIURNAL TREND TO RESOLVE
TEMPERATURE WISE TODAY GIVEN EFFECTS FROM PRECIPITATION AND
STRONGER CAA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WARMEST HIGHS AROUND 50
STILL APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS...WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...TRANSITION TO NEUTRAL OR
A SLIGHT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR DEEPEST
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH TROWAL WRAPPING BACK
TO THE WEST. ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM WAVES DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MARGINAL WET BULB PROFILES AND PROGRESSION OF DEEPER MOISTURE
PROFILES EAST OF THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE BETTER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DIMINISHES AND AS CONTINUED SHEARED VORTICES DROP INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...WILL OMIT MENTION IN FORECAST AT
THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND SHORT DURATION OF
THIS POTENTIAL. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS/CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
MINS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FLATTER PACIFIC DOMINANT FLOW REGIME EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS DAY TO DAY. MODEST HEIGHT
RISES IN WAKE OF TODAY`S UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO
BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL WORK
QUICK EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. LEFTOVER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS. MAY SEE A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW MIX) DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS CONVERGENCE BRIEFLY
INCREASES/DEEPENS ALONG BOUNDARY ON NOSE OF DEVELOPING LLJ...WITH
SOME ADDED ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING LEAD/WEAK/SHEARED MID LEVEL
IMPULSE. SHIFTED AXIS OF HIGHER CHC POPS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FA GIVEN TRENDS IN 12/00Z MODELS. REGARDLESS...EXPECT
ANY RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH NO HYDRO/TRAVEL CONCERNS
ANTICIPATED.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATER
FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO
LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ENOUGH INSOLATION WITH 925
MB TEMPS SURGING TO BTW 10-12C WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE BY LATE IN THE
DAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR INDIANA/OHIO ZONES. THIS WARM UP WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE SHORT
LIVED AS AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED
DEEPENING SFC REFLECTION TRACKING EAST THROUGH MICHIGAN FORCES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST A BROKEN
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONT.
A TREND TOWARD EVEN COLDER TEMPS ANTICIPATED BEHIND A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST FORCING BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A SFC HIGH OF NORTHWEST
CANADA ORIGINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY/COLD CONDITIONS BEFORE A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGS SOME SNOW TO THE AREA AROUND MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CIGS HAVE
TRENDED TO MVFR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRONGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MAY TEND TO SEE PERIODIC TRANSITIONS TO
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS INITIAL ADVECTION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED TREND OF PREVIOUS
TAFS IN MORE SOLID MVFR CIGS AFTER 10Z AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE AREA. AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA THROUGH 09Z WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH IN TERMS OF DEPTH OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AFTER 10Z. POCKET OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ADVECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI WILL PROVIDE SOME ISOLD
THUNDER POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY IN THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME. HAVE
CONTINUED TO OMIT THUNDER MENTION FROM THE 06Z TAFS DUE TO LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DIFFICULTY IN TIMING 1 TO 2 HR PERIODS OF
GREATEST POTENTIAL. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED LLWS MENTION FROM THE 06Z-
11Z TIMEFRAME AS LOW LEVEL RAMPS UP AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM. BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY BEHIND COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1230 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
Models this morning are in good agreement with moving the upper
level trough east into central Kansas early this evening. The
better upper level dynamics will also begin to shift east as a
secondary surface boundary surges south across western Kansas
late this afternoon. As this boundary moves across southwest
Kansas, northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph will continue as low
level moisture increases. Given the timing of the exiting upper
level trough and increasing low level moisture will retain small
precipitation chances across north central Kansas early this
evening. Further south will keep an increase in clouds early this
evening but will not mention precipitation chances at this time.
Wind speeds across southeast Colorado earlier this afternoon have
on occasion approached high wind warning criteria. Visibilities
where these stronger winds were reported have been lowered to one
mile or less due to blowing dust. 12z NAM and 17z RAP indicated
the tightest surface pressure gradient along with the strongest
925mb to 850mb winds between 21z Tuesday and 00z Wednesday will be
near the Colorado border with the mean mixdown winds suggesting
sustained winds of near high wind warning criteria. Based on that
the models continue to suggest winds will be near High wind
warning criteria late today in far southwest Kansas and the 18z
wind speeds/gusts across southeast Colorado will continue the high
wind warning west of highway 83. Will also mention visibility
issues due to blowing dust. Further east will keep the wind
advisory going until 02z.
Surface ridge axis will then begin to build across western Kansas
towards 06z as the upper level trough moves from eastern Kansas
into Missouri. Given the cloud cover overnight along with wind
speeds of 10 to 15 mph the previous forecast still looks on track
with lows mainly in the mid to upper 20s
Westerly downslope flow will improve across western Kansas on
Wednesday with 925mb temperatures warmer around 6c from 00z
Wednesday to 00z Thursday. 850mb temperature trends over the same
time frame be +3c to +5c. Based on this warming trend and mostly
sunny conditions the highs mid week should easily rebound to near
60 degrees for much of western Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
Lee troughing will develop Thursday ahead of the next upper level
system entering the northern Rockies, leading to south winds and warmer
temperatures. After this system traverses the northern plains on
Friday, a cold front will pass through western Kansas in its wake,
leading to falling high temperatures into the 60s Friday and 50s
Saturday. As the cool air gets deeper by Saturday night, mid level
isentropic lift may result in some light rain or light snow,
especially over far southwestern Kansas. Temperatures Sunday will
still be seasonably cool, with highs in the lower 50s.
A slight warming trend can be expected Sunday (highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s) as a weak lee trough develops ahead of the next
upper level trough. This system will push yet another cold front
through western Kansas by later Monday, with a return of cooler than
average high and low temperatures by Monday night and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
Gusty northwest winds at Hays will diminish by 09z with winds at
all the TAF sites in central and southwest Kansas continuing from
the northwest at around 12 knots through the mid afternoon hours.
Winds will become light and variable by late afternoon. VFR skies
and visibilities will prevail.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 32 71 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 31 70 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 33 72 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 32 72 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 31 70 36 58 / 0 0 0 0
P28 34 72 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1058 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE AREA AND ALL ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN DROPPED AN HOUR EARLY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO
FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MADE SOME LARGE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST TO ADJUST WIND
SPEEDS DOWN AS WIDESPREAD WARNING CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
2 HOURS AND DESPITE THE WET SNOW...SIG BLOWING SNOW OBSERVED WHEN
GUSTS EXCEED 40 KTS AT KGLD. ALTHOUGH LARGE AREA OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING IN ITS
WAKE...RECENTLY OBSERVED VISIBILITIES AND OVERALL IMPACT LEADS ME
TO CHANGE AREA TO A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM HIGH WIND WARNING
THROUGH 03Z. SIG SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 455 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY/BLOWING SNOW CAUSING SOME LOW
VISIBILITIES IN SEVERAL AREAS...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THIS IN
CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING PER COORDINATION EARLIER TODAY AND NOT
ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. WHILE WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO RISE AND VERY SPORADIC...STARTING TO SEE A LOT OF
CONVECTIVE TYPE SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEAR TERM MODELED SOUNDINGS
INDICATING WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WITH STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC IN THIS AREA...EXPECT STRONG
WINDS TO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AS OPPOSED TO A MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND TYPE EVENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AT 19Z UPPER LOW CENTERED ON
TOP OF GOODLAND WITH STRONGEST SFC WIND GUSTS GENERALLY WEST OF A
LINE FROM FLAGLER TO KIT CARSON WHERE GUSTS IN OUR PART OF THE AREA
APPROACHING 50 MPH WHILE JUST OUTSIDE OF IT GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
BEING REPORTED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST REACHING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND 00Z THEN WEAKENING A BIT
AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. STRONGEST SFC WINDS
AND GUSTS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST BEHIND THE UPPER LOW SO
NO CHANGES TO HIGH WIND WARNING. 18Z RUC SHOWS 850-800MB WINDS
ACTUALLY INCREASING ON THE BACKSIDE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNSET OUT EAST
WHICH IS WHERE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST SO FOR NOW WIND ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE.
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED BAND OF SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. AM EXPECTING THE WORST
CONDITIONS PRESENTLY IN EASTERN COLORADO TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE) BY
23Z CONTINUING EAST AND INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WILL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
UNDER QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
(WEST TO EAST).
WEDNESDAY...CLOUDINESS INCREASES A BIT AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT COULD SEE NORTHWEST
WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOW 50S TO NEAR 60 (WEST TO
EAST).
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 50S. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BREEZY
WINDS...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF OF OUR CWA AND SEND REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COOLER TEMPS INTO THE PLAINS. THESE QUICK MOVING FEATURES ARE ON
LESS THAN IDEAL TRACKS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE RUN-RUN ON EVOLUTION OF
THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES. BEST MODEL OVERLAP SEEMS TO BE ON PRECIP
CHANCES SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS WOULD STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND IN
THIS PATTERN/THIS RANGE I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS.
TEMPS SHOULD START OUT BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY (40S) BEFORE SEASONAL
TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY (50S). BY NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER
THE CWA BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THESE LATER
PERIODS CONSIDERING THE MODEL SPREAD/LACK OF CONTINUITY...SO
DECIDED AGAINST MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO CONSENSUS BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE MAR 18 2014
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM
DEPARTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN LOWER...WITH MAINLY SNOW
FOR UPPER MICHIGAN. COOLER AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO
SNOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO AN END ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
...MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TODAY THEN BACK TO SNOW
OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS AS OF 08Z. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEARLY CLOSED-OFF
LOWER LEVEL (H8-H7) CIRCULATION NEAR THE IOWA/WISCONSIN BORDER WITH
AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS AND SPOTTY PRECIP (SNOW) STRETCHING
FROM IOWA INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER
DEFINED AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER PRECIP NOTED ACROSS ILLINOIS
CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC LOW AND LEAD VORTICITY MAX. THUS FAR...
DESPITE HOW WELL DEFINED THIS SYSTEM IS...GOOD MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
GULF IS DEFINITELY ON THE LACKING SIDE OF THINGS AS EVIDENCED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE GULF LARGELY IN THE 40S AND A LACK OF ANY WELL
DEFINED "WARM CONVEYOR" BELT STRETCHING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE FOR A WAVE LIKE THIS.
TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING BEFORE TRAVERSING THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO THE THIS EVENING. SFC LOW
TRACK...PRETTY MUCH ALL RECENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS (NAM/GFS/GEM/EURO/
UKMET) ARE IN DECENT LOCK STEP AND HAVE ALL TRENDED THE SFC LOW
TRACK JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
ESSENTIALLY UP THROUGH LUDINGTON TO HOUGHTON LAKE TO ALPENA INTO
LAKE HURON BY 00Z. BIGGEST IMPLICATION OF COURSE RESTS WITH PRECIP
TYPE AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST SIMPLY DOES NOT PUSH AS FAR NORTH
AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. STILL...HIGH RESOLUTION RUC AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO STILL PUSH A MODEST ELEVATED WARM NOSE (+1 TO
+2C) AROUND 900 MB AS FAR NORTH AS THE TIP OF THE MITT (ALREADY HAD
IT YESTERDAY EVENING PER 00Z APX SOUNDING) WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING MAINTAINS OR PUSHES SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
TODAY. SO...I THINK THE OVERALL LAYOUT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL
PRETTY GOOD WITH ALL SNOW IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/RAIN-SNOW-SLEET
OVER A CHUNK OF NRN LOWER PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
RAIN M-72 SOUTH...WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DON/T THINK THAT
ICING WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THIS GO AROUND AS SFC TEMPS WILL WARM
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE FREEZING WHERE LIQUID PRECIP WILL FALL AND NOW
THAT A GOOD PORTION OF AREA ROADWAYS HAVE LOST THE SNOW PACK IN
RECENT DAYS.
TONIGHT...CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO
CANADA WHILE TYPICAL WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND PRECIP SWINGS UP THROUGH NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE CWA AS COLDER AIR COLLAPSES BACK THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP MAY HANG ON IN THE SE COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. DOESN/T GET COLD ENOUGH TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE TRUE SENSE OF BANDED NW FLOW LAKE SNOWS. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL WITHIN GUIDANCE OF GETTING A BIT OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT HANGS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NW
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. TERRAIN MAY ALSO HELP
THINGS OUT AS WELL...AND WE COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE
NUDGED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A LITTLE TO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. BUT
DAY CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL AND DECIDE IF A
HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS AND A HEADLINE IS WARRANTED.
SO NEXT QUESTION BECOMES...WHAT SORT OF HEADLINE CHANGES DO WE NEED.
AS ELUDED TO EARLIER...THUS FAR I/M UNIMPRESSED BY THE MOISTURE FEED
INTO THIS SYSTEM AND THE TOTAL PRECIP THIS SYSTEM IS/WILL ACTUALLY
PRODUCE. U.S. RADAR MOSAIC BEARS THIS OUT WITH A DEFINITIVE LACK OF
A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND OVERALL MEAGER UPSTREAM PRECIP TOTALS THUS
FAR DESPITE ITS GREAT DYNAMICS. SURE...THERE IS A NICE INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY NOW PUSHING UP THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN AHEAD
OF LEAD VORTICITY CENTER THAT WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND
SNOWFALL SLIDING UP THROUGH NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. BUT SO FAR IT/S NOT SHAPING UP TO BE
A BIG HITTER IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT.
SO...IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...HAVE LOWERED OVERALL SNOWFALL JUST
A LITTLE. BUT STILL THINK A GOOD 2 TO MAYBE 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THERE TODAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. AND GIVEN THIS WILL BE
A WETTER/HEAVIER SNOW...WILL LEAVE THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ALONE FOR NOW.
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AGAIN...DON/T THINK ICING WILL BE A BIG ISSUE
TODAY ALTHOUGH MIXY PRECIP EARLY ON COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT. BUT EVEN SO I ONLY HAVE UP
TO 3 INCHES IN THERE NOW. THUS...NOT PLANNING ANY HEADLINES FOR NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN JUST YET. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING TO ADDRESS MIXED PRECIP ISSUES AND
SLICK TRAVEL POSSIBILITIES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
WEATHER IMPACTS: GENERALLY MINOR. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH THURSDAY. MODERATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
EXPECTED WEATHER EVOLUTION: THURSDAY...POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE /ESPECIALLY
EARLY THURSDAY/ DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE ABOVE OTHERWISE SHALLOW INVERSION. WITH ONLY MINOR LAKE
CONTRIBUTIONS /H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C/ AND A RAPID DECREASE IN
MOISTURE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF NEW
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY FAVORED SECTIONS OF NW LOWER. THE
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO FLURRIES AS SURFACE RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...AND RESULT IN AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS /WENT SEVERAL DEG BELOW
GUIDANCE/.
FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WNW BY LATE IN THE DAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FROM MN ARROWHEAD INTO THE U.P. BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF SYSTEM. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NW LOWER AND E
UPPER AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSH EWD. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SAME OLD STORY.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY /SOME 10-20F/ BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS...THANKS TO PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA AND UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ALONG WEST COAST. AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE VERY COLD AIR
SPILLS SWD ACROSS REGION SUNDAY /FEATURING H8 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN
NEAR -20C/. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED COLD BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS /WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED/. THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD /SNOW AND POSSIBLY
WIND/ ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS
SEWD OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR LATE TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIP DEVELOPS FROM MBL/TVC
(AROUND 08Z) TO PLN/APN BY 10Z IN RESPONSE TO DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK DIRECTLY OVER NRN LWR MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS ALL LIQUID FOR TVC AND MBL LATE
TONIGHT...BUT AS A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/POSSIBLY SOME SLEET
BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP WILL REMAIN MIXED FOR THE TIP OF THE MITT (PLN) ALL DAY.
E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ008-
015.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...MR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
346 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE INTO SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY...ACROSS WRN
ND/ERN MT AND SOUTH THROUGH ERN WY WILL MOVE MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. THE DEVELOPING CHINOOK BEHIND THE FRONT
SENDS H850MB TEMPS IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS ACROSS WRN NEB.
THE RAP SUGGESTED NEAR 50 FOR A HIGH ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE ZONES
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. IT WAS THE WARMEST MODEL. TEMPS WERE MARKED
DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NEWLY FORMED DEEP SNOW COVER OVER
NCNTL NEB.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD MELT A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS SNOW FIELD. THERE IS STILL COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH
MIGHT SUSTAIN A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE RAP
SUGGESTED A PERIOD OF STRATUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING BUT
SATELLITE SHOWS THOSE CLOUDS ANCHORED ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE FCST
AREA AND LIKELY THE RESULT OF REMNANT COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
TUESDAYS CYCLONE.
THE CHINOOK STRENGTHENS TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY H850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KT. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL REMAIN IN THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS. THE BEST GUESS ON LOWS IS MID AND UPPER 20S
BUT THE MODELS MAY BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SET TO CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK WINDS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE 60S. DID COOL HIGHS JUST A BIT...MID TO UPPER
50S...IN AREAS OF SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS COOLING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AT ALL LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR
SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS WILL BE AN OPEN WAVE...AND SHOULD PASS QUICKLY WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT
CONTINUED BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO OOZE SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE PASSAGE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
CEILINGS WILL MOVE EAST OF AN ONL-BBW LINE BY 08Z. UNTIL THEN...
CEILINGS OF 3000-6000 FEET AGL ARE LIKELY. FOR VTN-TIF-LBF...
CEILINGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 12000 FEET. AFTER 09Z...NO CEILING OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND 300-340 AT 5-15KT WILL
INCREASE TO 10-12G18-12KT WEDNESDAY MORNING ABOUT 16Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN
THIS PERIOD.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THE NEXT 18 HOURS. 120 KNOT 300 MB JET STREAK OVER
NEW MEXICO AT 12Z THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUNCH EASTWARD. AREA
OF 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS (AROUND 100 METERS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AT 12Z) WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
MESOSCALE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR WEST
TODAY SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING...BUT THE
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE AS IT MOVES EAST. WE WERE ALREADY STARTING
TO SEE SIGNS OF THAT WITH REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AS OF 310 PM. HIGH
RESOLUTION RAP MODEL SUGGESTS ANOTHER (BUT WEAKER) BAND WILL
DEVELOP FARTHER EAST WITH A NEW AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...
AND THAT APPEARS REASONABLE. IN GENERAL...SLOWED DOWN THE ENDING
OF PCPN TONIGHT AND ALSO THE DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD MAINLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT PARTS OF KNOX AND
POSSIBLY ANTELOPE COUNTY MAY SEE A BIT MORE THAN THAT BEFORE 06Z.
MEASURABLE PCPN SHOULD END IN ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT
DECREASE SOME LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S SEEMS ON
TRACK.
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT SOME
LOW POPS GOING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS
IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY AND SEEMED A BIT
OVERDONE. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ADD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT LEFT THAT PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS 45
TO 50 NORTH AND 50 TO 55 SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
LEFT THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DRY...WITH MAIN FORCING
EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY 60S THURSDAY AND MAINLY 50S FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOSTLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. A LARGE COLD
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS INTO THE -8C TO -14C
RANGE SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE 12Z ECMWF BEING
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE 12Z GFS. BRIEF RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CLIP EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WILL
INCLUDE A SMALL POP IN OUR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH -8C TO -18C 850MB
TEMPS ADVERTISED FOR NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW NEAR A LINCOLN-OMAHA-HARLAN IA
LINE AT 0430Z SHOULD CONTINUE SHRINKING THROUGH 07Z OR 08Z AND
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT AT KLNK AND KOMA AFTER THAT
TIME. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR SO BEFORE
07Z. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUD CIGS ARE STILL FORECAST TO CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT AS GUSTY NNW SURFACE WINDS DECREASE SOMEWHAT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND COOL AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION COULD
BRING CIGS TO TAF SITES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...NOTABLY KOFK AND
KOMA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE ABOVE FL030...AND SFC WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE WITH HEATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...BUT
COVERAGE/TIMING TOO UNCERTAIN TO MENTION IN TAF FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
237 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING THE REGION MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1215 AM UPDATE...
AS EXPECTED, LOW CLOUDS ARE DVLPNG ACRS CNTRL PA MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT. HV UPDATED GRIDS TO GO PRTLY-MOCLDY ACRS FAR SWRN ZONES
THRU ABOUT 10Z, BFR MOISTURE OVERSPREADS CWA AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
ONCE AGAIN LATEST RUC 925MB RH FIELDS HANDLE CLDS BEST.
TEMPS ARE HVG A TUFF TIME DROPPING OFF TONIGHT UNDER WARMING
TEMPS. HV ADJUSTED MINS UP BY SVRL DEGREES WITH U20S/NR 30
EXPECTED WEST OF I-81 AND LWR 20S TO THE EAST WHERE RADN`L COOLING
IS MAXIMIZED AND AREA WL BE LAST TO GET INTO WAA. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED.
PREV DISCOS BLO...
730 PM UPDATE...THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GREAT SHAPE...SO JUST A FEW
COSMETIC CHGS WERE MADE ATTM.
SAT IMAGERY SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF A THICKER SC DECK CREEPING
NWD FROM CNTRL PA THIS EVE. NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT...
ALTHOUGH THESE CLDS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO PTNS OF CNY/NE PA
TWDS DAYBREAK...THEY WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE DOING SO OVERNIGHT AS
THEY ENCOUNTER INITIALLY DRY AMS TO THE N. THUS...OUR PRESENT SKY
COVER GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE...SHOWING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TIL
06-09Z...THEN INCREASING CLDS FROM SW TO NE.
OUR MIN TEMP GRID SHOWS THAT THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TAKE
PLACE ACRS OUR NRN AND ERN ZNS (TEENS)...WHICH MAKES PERFECT SENSE
GIVEN THEY WILL LIKELY STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST...AND HAVE A CHANCE
TO COOL RADIATIONALLY THIS EVE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.
4 PM UPDATE..
SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA POSSIBLY TO
THE NY/PA BORDER BY MORNING. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...SFC LOW PRES WILL RACK FROM NRN IL TO LAKE HURON BY
EVENING. SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PRODUCE A
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE. MODELS SHOW BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR WHERE POPS WILL
BE THE HIGHEST UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN FRONTAL MOISTURE APPROACHES.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPENDENT AND PRIMARILY RAIN
SHOWERS. THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHC
CATEGORY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH FA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. WENT WITH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS WITH POPS LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. PRECIP WILL FALL PRIMARILY AS RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
EVENING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX AS CAA COOLS
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE COULD BE MINOR SNOW ACCUMS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN SUSQUEHANNA REGION, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
THURSDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE NRN CWA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NRN CWA PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING
UNDER 275-290 FLOW. WILL CARRY LOW LIKELY POPS HERE AND SNOW
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
FRIDAY...SFC RIDGING AND AIRMASS DRYING WILL END ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED QPC GUIDANCE. UNSETTLED AND COLDER THAN
NORMAL. DETAILS FOLLOW FROM BEFORE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROF EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE TROF
WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, WITH THE COLD CORE EXTENDING
WELL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MONDAY.
A CYCLONE WILL SPIN OUT OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
TREK EASTWARD TO NEAR ATLANTIC CITY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS STORM
WILL SPIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO NY AND PA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
ARCTIC AIR WILL CRASH THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO NY STATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. A POWERFUL CYCLONE WELL OFF SHORE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND THE RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN WATERS. THIS WILL DRAG ADDITIONAL COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND, LEADING TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PA
ARE MOVING NE INTO THE AREA BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AGAIN REMAINING VFR.
AT KRME MAYBE SOME SLEET WILL FALL WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING AT THE START. STEADY RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE IN AROUND 00Z AND REMAIN THROUGH 6Z. POSSIBLE CIGS BELOW 2K
FT AT KBGM IN THE EVENING SO ALTERNATES NEEDED. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AFTER 6Z.
SE TO S WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS INCREASING TO 10 KTS LATE MORNING
THEN 10 TO 15KTS DURING THE AFTN WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 CONTINUING
INTO THE EVE.
OUTLOOK...
WED OVERNGT/THU...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN -SHRA/-SHSN.
THUR NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ACROSS NY
TERMINALS. VFR AVP.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1220 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING THE REGION MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1215 AM UPDATE...
AS EXPECTED, LOW CLOUDS ARE DVLPNG ACRS CNTRL PA MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT. HV UPDATED GRIDS TO GO PRTLY-MOCLDY ACRS FAR SWRN ZONES
THRU ABOUT 10Z, BFR MOISTURE OVERSPREADS CWA AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
ONCE AGAIN LATEST RUC 925MB RH FIELDS HANDLE CLDS BEST.
TEMPS ARE HVG A TUFF TIME DROPPING OFF TONIGHT UNDER WARMING
TEMPS. HV ADJUSTED MINS UP BY SVRL DEGREES WITH U20S/NR 30
EXPECTED WEST OF I-81 AND LWR 20S TO THE EAST WHERE RADN`L COOLING
IS MAXIMIZED AND AREA WL BE LAST TO GET INTO WAA. NO OTHER CHGS
NEEDED.
PREV DISCOS BLO...
730 PM UPDATE...THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GREAT SHAPE...SO JUST A FEW
COSMETIC CHGS WERE MADE ATTM.
SAT IMAGERY SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF A THICKER SC DECK CREEPING
NWD FROM CNTRL PA THIS EVE. NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT...
ALTHOUGH THESE CLDS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO PTNS OF CNY/NE PA
TWDS DAYBREAK...THEY WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE DOING SO OVERNIGHT AS
THEY ENCOUNTER INITIALLY DRY AMS TO THE N. THUS...OUR PRESENT SKY
COVER GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE...SHOWING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TIL
06-09Z...THEN INCREASING CLDS FROM SW TO NE.
OUR MIN TEMP GRID SHOWS THAT THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TAKE
PLACE ACRS OUR NRN AND ERN ZNS (TEENS)...WHICH MAKES PERFECT SENSE
GIVEN THEY WILL LIKELY STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST...AND HAVE A CHANCE
TO COOL RADIATIONALLY THIS EVE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE.
4 PM UPDATE..
SFC HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA POSSIBLY TO
THE NY/PA BORDER BY MORNING. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...SFC LOW PRES WILL RACK FROM NRN IL TO LAKE HURON BY
EVENING. SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PRODUCE A
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE. MODELS SHOW BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR WHERE POPS WILL
BE THE HIGHEST UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN FRONTAL MOISTURE APPROACHES.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPENDENT AND PRIMARILY RAIN
SHOWERS. THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW PRES TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH FA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. WENT WITH
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS WITH POPS LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. PRECIP WILL FALL PRIMARILY AS RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
EVENING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX AS CAA COOLS
BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE COULD BE MINOR SNOW ACCUMS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN SUSQUEHANNA REGION, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
THURSDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE NRN CWA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NRN CWA PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING
UNDER 275-290 FLOW. WILL CARRY LOW LIKELY POPS HERE AND SNOW
ACCUMS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
FRIDAY...SFC RIDGING AND AIRMASS DRYING WILL END ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROF EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE TROF
WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, WITH THE COLD CORE EXTENDING
WELL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MONDAY.
A CYCLONE WILL SPIN OUT OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
TREK EASTWARD TO NEAR ATLANTIC CITY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS STORM
WILL SPIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO NY AND PA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
ARCTIC AIR WILL CRASH THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC INTO NY STATE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. A POWERFUL CYCLONE WELL OFF SHORE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS.
THIS WILL DRAG ADDITIONAL COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NY AND
NEW ENGLAND, LEADING TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW
MORNING. AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY... LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS WILL START TO DEVELOP. SHOWERS MAY POSSIBLY BE
COMPRISED OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AN RAIN EARLY ON. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN. ATTM THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS THE MSLP TIGHTENS. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PASS TILL
THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WED NGT/THU...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN -SHRA/-SHSN.
THUR NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT -SHSN, MAINLY ACROSS NY
TERMINALS.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
126 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LATE
WINTER STORM SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER TYPE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. RAISED FORECAST LOWS BY A
DEGREE OR TWO BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 900 PM FOLLOWS...
ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS BEING RECORDED BY ANY OF OUR SITES...RADAR
RETURNS INDICATE THAT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS OVER OUR NC
COUNTIES MAY BE SEEING A VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR MIST. I WOULDN`T BET
ON THAT THOUGH. MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT. FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWS:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL OFF SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE FEAR.
WHAT THIS HAS DONE IS SCOUR OUT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND NOW ONLY THE
MOISTURE SEEN ON RAP TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT MAINLY BELOW 800 MB.
THE SYNOPTIC SETTING AT THE SURFACE SHOWS COLD AIR DAMMING AND
THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH NO FORCING ALOFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXPECT
STRATUS CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. CURRENT SATELLITE IS SHOWING A BREAK
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST BUT AS LOW MOVES AWAY AND
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE WEAKENS EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL
IN OVERNIGHT.
WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN LEAN TOWARD A COOLER SOLUTION AS SEEN IN THE
MET MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH MAY BE A BIT TO COLD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 30S BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND A NORTH
WIND THE EXPECTATION OF FROST IS NOT HIGH FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WESTERLY WIND FLOW IN A PARCHED AIR-MASS
PERCHED ABOVE 8000 FEET WILL COVER THE AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PATCHY -RA/-DZ MAY LINGER OVER OUR FAR NE ZONES VERY
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 12Z/8AM...AS A STORM SYSTEM CIRCULATION
THROWS MOISTURE OVER-TOP AN ERODING HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE. RESIDUAL
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WNW MAY
ALSO AID IN LIGHT PCPN AROUND THIS TIME.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SECONDARY INCREASE
IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY UP THROUGH 800 MB BUT THIS LOOKS INADEQUATE
TO GENERATE ANY PCPN SO NO MENTIONABLE POP VALUES ARE PLANNED. NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AND IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...MAINLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE WED/EARLY THU EXPECTED.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BE A STRUGGLE EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
WEAKENING WEDGE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON NE TRAJECTORIES...AND
AGAIN VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY WE MAY BE GREETED WITH CLOUDS. BREAKS
AND PERIODS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HOWEVER SHOULD PERIODICALLY
PREVAIL...THIS MOST FAVORABLE THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM SW FLOW WILL RETURN AT THE SFC
WHILE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESIDES...MAKING FOR OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL AID IN THE FORWARD PUSHING
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS. AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ALOFT WITH WESTERLY
WINDS...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ONLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
THAT INFILTRATED INTO THE AREA BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THE SYSTEM.
INTO SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE AND QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. THOUGH WILL NOTE MUCH
COOLER AIR INFILTRATES IN...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
STALLED SYSTEM OFFSHORE SLOWLY RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CIGS ARE CURRENTLY IFR ALONG AND N OF A KLBT-KFLO- KILM
LINE...AND MVFR TO THE S OF THAT LINE. CIGS HAVE CONTINUE TO SHOW A
LOWERING TREND OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE AND
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR CIGS DEVELOPING S INTO THE KCRE/KMYR TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS IN TIMING. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS
IN -DZBR AND CIGS COULD FLIRT WITH LIFR LEVELS MAINLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AS A SURFACE WAVE FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT TO THE S OF THE
TERMINALS.
AFTER SUNRISE SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MVFR AT MOST
TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO LOW VFR
LEVELS...POSSIBLY SCATTERED...AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SE-SW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...RAISED WIND SPEEDS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR
SLIGHTLY ON THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE A FEW KNOTS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST RUC MODEL...OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 900 PM FOLLOWS...
HAVE CANCELED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR SC WATERS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR OUR NC WATERS THROUGH 6 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IS NOW
LOCATED AROUND 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. WITH THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE WINDS OVER THE WATERS ARE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND ARE BLOWING AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING AT 7.5 FEET AT FRYING PAN
SHOALS AND 4.5 FEET AT BUOY 41110 OFF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE LOW EXITING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE CAROLINAS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES OVERNIGHT...THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE. SO AT THE TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND NORTH
OF LITTLE RIVER INLET THROUGH 6 AM.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL AN IMPROVED MARINE FORECAST AS WINDS
FALL OFF IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE. N WINDS
EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL EASE AND BECOME WSW LATER IN THE DAY AS LOWER
PRESSURE TO THE NE PULLS AWAY...AND ALLOWS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO LOOSEN CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL GO NW-N THURSDAY AFTN
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODERATE NE WIND SHOULD
BE EXPECTED DAYBREAK FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD OF
THE COASTAL WATERS MIDDAY FRIDAY. SEAS SPECTRUM WILL FEATURE NE
WAVE ENERGY ON THE WANE WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SMALLER BUT A
MYRIAD OF S-SE MINOR WAVE TRAINS OF DIFFERING WAVE PERIODS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS SEAS WILL BUILD TO
2-4 FT...WITH SOME POSSIBLE 5FOOTERS IN THE OUTER WATERS OF AMZ-252
AND 250...AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS AND DECENT SWELL
ENERGY IS TAPPED INTO ACROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS QUIET BACK DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH SEAS ON SUNDAY MAINLY 2-3 FT AND
MAINLY NORTH WINDS 10-14 KTS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/DRH/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE OF THINKING FROM THE 00Z FORECAST SET. AN MVFR
CLOUD PATCH FORMED BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AT KIAH AND THEN MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. EXPECT THAT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SE TX THAT
SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR
CEILINGS FROM ABOUT KCXO TO THE COAST. THE NAM12 AND NAMBUFR BOTH
LIFT THE CEILINGS TO VFR AT KCXO...KIAH...KHOU...AND KSGR BETWEEN
15Z AND 18Z. THE MODEL ALSO SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN TO BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY AT THE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CEILINGS DOWN AT KLBX AND KGLS.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AT 00Z...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ABOUT TULSA TO
BROWNWOOD TO DEL RIO. A COLD FRONT LAGGED THE TROUGH A BIT AND
EXTENDED FROM ARDMORE TO WICHITA FALLS TO MIDLAND. 00Z SOUNDINGS
SHOW PW VALUES NEAR 0.50 INCHES AND THE SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY DRY.
STILL EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. THE RAP AND OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HINT AT
SOME SHOWERS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT
FORECAST MENTIONS ISOLATED SHOWERS TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. ALL IN ALL...SOME NICE SPRING WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 71 46 74 54 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 73 48 74 54 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 59 72 56 68 58 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1045 PM PDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...TONIGHT WILL BE DRY OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY
WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING TO LOWER POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN CONJUCTION WITH RADAR TRENDS AND THE KOTX
SOUNDING INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO FULLY MATERIALIZE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES OVERNIGHT. AS OF
830PM...ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TIP
OF WA. 00Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
CASCADES UNTIL AFTER 06Z AND DOES NOT BRING 0.01" INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AFTER 12Z. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUPPORT THIS
IDEA AND KOTX 00Z SOUNDING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
BETWEEN 700-500MB BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION CAN MATERIALIZE.
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO SLICK ROADS ACROSS THE CASCADE PASSES WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT THE MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD QUICKLY LEAD TO MAINLY WET
ROADS BY MIDDAY.
THERE REMAINS A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT 150-250 J/KG OF SB CAPE. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BY THE
NUMBERS BUT FEEL THESE MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE DEPENDING HOW
QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DRIES OUT. ERN WA AND NRN ID
WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
WHICH BRINGS RAPID 500MB COOLING OVER THE REGION PRIOR TO THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS IS WILL BE NICELY STACKED FRONT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL PROPEL PARCELS UPWARDS OVERCOMING ANY
WEAK CIN AND THIS IS WHY SB CAPE MAY BE ON THE LOWER END. 00Z GFS
WAS JUST TRICKLING IN AND WILL ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO TAKE
ONE LAST LOOK BEFORE ADDING INTO THE GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AN
ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35-45 MPH. THESE
GUSTS COULD BE ENHANCED WITH POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. /SB
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS: A STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WA
COAST THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGHLEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS GENERALLY
AOA 6-8K FT AGL THROUGH 20Z. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CASCADES ARND
00Z AND RACE TOWARD THE IDAHO/WASHINGTON BORDER ARND 03Z THUR. THE
MAIN PCPN THREAT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL COME WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WILL COME THROUGH QUICKLY IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW OR GRAUPEL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT
ACROSS NE WA/NRN ID. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS BTWN 30-45 MPH. /SB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 32 49 31 45 27 45 / 0 60 60 40 10 0
COEUR D`ALENE 30 47 32 44 26 44 / 0 60 70 60 10 10
PULLMAN 33 50 32 45 28 46 / 0 50 70 30 10 10
LEWISTON 35 57 37 50 31 48 / 0 30 60 40 10 10
COLVILLE 30 50 28 47 24 47 / 10 60 50 20 0 0
SANDPOINT 29 44 30 41 24 41 / 0 70 80 50 10 10
KELLOGG 29 42 30 38 24 38 / 0 70 90 70 30 20
MOSES LAKE 35 58 34 54 28 52 / 0 40 10 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 35 55 33 52 28 48 / 0 30 20 0 0 0
OMAK 32 54 30 48 25 48 / 10 50 10 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
902 PM PDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...TONIGHT WILL BE DRY OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY
WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING TO LOWER POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN CONJUCTION WITH RADAR TRENDS AND THE KOTX
SOUNDING INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO FULLY MATERIALIZE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES OVERNIGHT. AS OF
830PM...ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TIP
OF WA. 00Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
CASCADES UNTIL AFTER 06Z AND DOES NOT BRING 0.01" INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AFTER 12Z. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUPPORT THIS
IDEA AND KOTX 00Z SOUNDING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
BETWEEN 700-500MB BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION CAN MATERIALIZE.
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO SLICK ROADS ACROSS THE CASCADE PASSES WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT THE MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD QUICKLY LEAD TO MAINLY WET
ROADS BY MIDDAY.
THERE REMAINS A DECENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT 150-250 J/KG OF SB CAPE. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BY THE
NUMBERS BUT FEEL THESE MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE DEPENDING HOW
QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DRIES OUT. ERN WA AND NRN ID
WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
WHICH BRINGS RAPID 500MB COOLING OVER THE REGION PRIOR TO THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS IS WILL BE NICELY STACKED FRONT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL PROPEL PARCELS UPWARDS OVERCOMING ANY
WEAK CIN AND THIS IS WHY SB CAPE MAY BE ON THE LOWER END. 00Z GFS
WAS JUST TRICKLING IN AND WILL ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO TAKE
ONE LAST LOOK BEFORE ADDING INTO THE GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AN
ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35-45 MPH. THESE
GUSTS COULD BE ENHANCED WITH POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. /SB
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS: SHORTWAVE RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THER REGION
WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT ALLOWING INCREASING HIGH AND MIDLEVEL CLOUD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER A
STRONG COLD FRONT TROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH CURRENT
TIMING BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE CASCADES ARND 00Z AND RACING
THROUGH THE IDAHO/WASHINGTON BORDER ARND 03Z THUR. THE MAIN PRECIP
THREAT THROUGH 18Z WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT A SMALL RISK
FOR SPRINKLES WILL EXIST AT THE TERMINALS. THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL COME AFT 20Z AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND FORCING
INCREASES ALONG THE COLD FRONT. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE
WITH A VARIATION OF RAIN, SNOW, AND GRAUPEL. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER. /SB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 32 49 31 45 27 45 / 0 60 60 40 10 0
COEUR D`ALENE 30 47 32 44 26 44 / 0 60 70 60 10 10
PULLMAN 33 50 32 45 28 46 / 0 50 70 30 10 10
LEWISTON 35 57 37 50 31 48 / 0 30 60 40 10 10
COLVILLE 30 50 28 47 24 47 / 10 60 50 20 0 0
SANDPOINT 29 44 30 41 24 41 / 0 70 80 50 10 10
KELLOGG 29 42 30 38 24 38 / 0 70 90 70 30 20
MOSES LAKE 35 58 34 54 28 52 / 0 40 10 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 35 55 33 52 28 48 / 0 30 20 0 0 0
OMAK 32 54 30 48 25 48 / 10 50 10 10 10 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA. THE 18.12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE TWO NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE 18.12Z GFS INDICATES THIS WILL PATTERN WILL TAKE
MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THEN SWING MODERATE TO
STRONG PV ADVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-500 MB
LAYER THIS EVENING AND SOME LINGERING WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
WITH 2 TO 4 UBAR/S SHOWN BY THE GFS ON THE 285K SURFACE. ALL THIS
FORCING WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THAT WERE MADE WERE TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST TO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CARRYING
A 100 PERCENT CHANCE AFTER 06Z FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND THEN HAVING
A SHARPER BACK EDGE AS THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTS WEDNESDAY WHICH
ENDS UP KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DRY
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WRAP
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE 18.12Z NAM SHOWS A
WARMER SOLUTION THAN EITHER THE GFS OR 18.12Z ECMWF WITH THE 0C
LINE FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH ABOUT -2C
OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS. THE GFS HAS THE 0C LINE FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...JUST BARELY INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH ABOUT -3C
AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THE
0C LINE BUT CLOSER TO THE NAM WITH -2C OVER THE NORTHWEST. ALL THE
MODELS THEN SHOW THIS WARM AIR ALOFT SLIDING OUT OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ONCE THE SURFACE LOW GOES BY. THE 18.18Z RAP LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE NAM THROUGH 06Z...SO CONCERNED THAT THE WARMER
SOLUTION MAY END UP BEING CORRECT. FOR NOW...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS...BUT WITH ALL OF THEM SHOWING SOME WARM AIR
ALOFT...THE LEADS TO THE CONCERN FOR SOME SLEET IN THE TRANSITION
BETWEEN THE RAIN TO SNOW AND HAVE ADDED THIS IN AS A POSSIBLE
WEATHER TYPE. WHERE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PREDOMINANTLY
SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I90 WITH UP TO 3 INCHES IN TAYLOR COUNTY. THUS...NOT
PLANNING ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM COMING
IN FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA. THE CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL FLATTEN OUT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BUT THEN SHIFT
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE WHETHER SATURATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE
OR AFTER THE SURFACE LOW HAS PASSED BY THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS
THE QUICKEST TO BRING THE PRECIPITATION IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS PRIMARILY KEEP THE AREA DRY ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR ONCE THE LOW IS PAST THE AREA. WILL SHOW A
SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY. THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE BATTLING SOME DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE OVER THE REGION...SO FOR NOW...THIS LEADS TO 30 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014
PCPN WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL SATURATION
WAS STILL OCCURRING - PER SFC OBS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. TEMP PROFILE
SUPPORTS RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS AT KLSE...BUT MORE LIKELY -SN AT THE
ONSET FOR KRST. THIS WOULD PERSIST THROUGH 12Z...ENDING SHORTLY
AFTER THAT. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE. VSBYS OF 1-2SM
WITH THE SNOW...4-6SM IN THE RAIN. AS THE PCPN ENDS...THE WINDS WILL
PICK UP WED MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY.
SOME GUSTINESS CAN BE EXPECTED.
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF WED...BUT EXPECT SOME
BUMP IN THE CIGS BY WED EVENING. GFS SUGGESTS SKC/SCT CONDITIONS
LATER WED NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM IS MORE PESSIMISTIC. GOING TO HOLD
ONTO CLOUDS FOR NOW...LETTING LATER MODEL RUNS/SATELLITE TRENDS ADD
SOME CLARITY TO THE CLOUD FORECAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
653 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
AN ACTIVE SHORT WAVE PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TODAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. SOME WEAK POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN NOTED PER RAP ANALYSES ALONG LOW LEVEL
WARM FRONTAL ZONE...BUT OVERALL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DEPTH HAS
BEEN LACKING WITH THIS LEAD VORT MAX. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOIST
TONGUE WILL BE ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG VORT MAX KICKING OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. A
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OFF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO LIFT INTO THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. COMBINATION OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND NOTABLE
UPPER DVG IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130 KNOT JET CORE NOSING INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
EXPANSION OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH
EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN DYNAMICS/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA GIVEN NORTHEAST TRACK OF EASTERN MISSOURI VORT MAX. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...PREFRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD TEND TO INCREASE FRONTAL
RESPONSE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE...AND GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER DVG FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK...WILL CONTINUE
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL
EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS RANGE...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER DOES APPEAR TO BE IN PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHIFT
EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. DIFFICULT DIURNAL TREND TO RESOLVE
TEMPERATURE WISE TODAY GIVEN EFFECTS FROM PRECIPITATION AND
STRONGER CAA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WARMEST HIGHS AROUND 50
STILL APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS...WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...TRANSITION TO NEUTRAL OR
A SLIGHT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR DEEPEST
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH TROWAL WRAPPING BACK
TO THE WEST. ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM WAVES DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MARGINAL WET BULB PROFILES AND PROGRESSION OF DEEPER MOISTURE
PROFILES EAST OF THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE BETTER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DIMINISHES AND AS CONTINUED SHEARED VORTICES DROP INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...WILL OMIT MENTION IN FORECAST AT
THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND SHORT DURATION OF
THIS POTENTIAL. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS/CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
MINS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FLATTER PACIFIC DOMINANT FLOW REGIME EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS DAY TO DAY. MODEST HEIGHT
RISES IN WAKE OF TODAY`S UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO
BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL WORK
QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. LEFTOVER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS. MAY SEE A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW MIX) DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS CONVERGENCE BRIEFLY
INCREASES/DEEPENS ALONG BOUNDARY ON NOSE OF DEVELOPING LLJ...WITH
SOME ADDED ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING LEAD/WEAK/SHEARED MID LEVEL
IMPULSE. SHIFTED AXIS OF HIGHER CHC POPS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FA GIVEN TRENDS IN 12/00Z MODELS. REGARDLESS...EXPECT
ANY RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH NO HYDRO/TRAVEL CONCERNS
ANTICIPATED.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATER
FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO
LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ENOUGH INSOLATION WITH 925
MB TEMPS SURGING TO BTW 10-12C WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE BY LATE IN THE
DAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR INDIANA/OHIO ZONES. THIS WARM UP WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE SHORT
LIVED AS AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED
DEEPENING SFC REFLECTION TRACKING EAST THROUGH MICHIGAN FORCES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST A BROKEN
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONT.
A TREND TOWARD EVEN COLDER TEMPS ANTICIPATED BEHIND A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST FORCING BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A SFC HIGH OF NORTHWEST
CANADA ORIGINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY/COLD CONDITIONS BEFORE A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGS SOME SNOW TO THE AREA AROUND MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LEAD VORT MAX HAS ALLOWED FOR A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. CANNOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN PLUME OF STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING NORTHWARD...BUT POINT PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX
APPEARS POISED TO ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM FAR EASTERN
MISSOURI WHICH COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH A GOOD
PORTION OF MORNING LIKELY BELOW 2000K FT. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WEAKER
SHORT WAVES APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM NORTHERN
STREAM MAY ALLOW SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1033 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN LOWER...WITH MAINLY SNOW
FOR UPPER MICHIGAN. COOLER AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO
SNOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO AN END ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
VERY BUSY MORNING SO FAR TRYING TO DECIPHER PRECIPITATION TYPES
AND IMPACTS. LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE LOW IS GOING TO END UP BEING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WHERE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...ALBEIT BY
MAYBE 25 MILES OR SO. HOWEVER...THIS LITTLE DEVIATION IN TRACK HAS
HUGE FORECAST IMPLICATIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND
TEMPERATURES TO A CERTAIN DEGREE WHICH IS ALSO HUGE DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY AROUND FREEZING. LUCKILY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A LOT
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOSTLY
UNTAPPED. HAVE NUDGED SNOW/SLEET FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS HELD
ONTO FREEZING RAIN FOR A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTH AS
WELL AS LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY AN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 3 DEGREES.
HAVE BEEN HANDLING SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS WITH SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS THUS FAR AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A
WHILE BUT MAY EVENTUALLY END UP ISSUING WINTER HEADLINES DEPENDING
UPON HOW THINGS EVOLVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THIN CORRIDOR OF LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD UP INTO NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...SLIGHTLY AHEAD SCHEDULE.
HAVE TWEAKED FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. PRECIP IS LIGHT...BUT MAY BE
PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT ICING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
WHERE TEMPS ARE LESS THAN 32F. HAVE ISSUED SPS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
...MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TODAY THEN BACK TO SNOW
OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS AS OF 08Z. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEARLY CLOSED-OFF
LOWER LEVEL (H8-H7) CIRCULATION NEAR THE IOWA/WISCONSIN BORDER WITH
AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS AND SPOTTY PRECIP (SNOW) STRETCHING
FROM IOWA INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER
DEFINED AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER PRECIP NOTED ACROSS ILLINOIS
CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC LOW AND LEAD VORTICITY MAX. THUS FAR...
DESPITE HOW WELL DEFINED THIS SYSTEM IS...GOOD MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
GULF IS DEFINITELY ON THE LACKING SIDE OF THINGS AS EVIDENCED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE GULF LARGELY IN THE 40S AND A LACK OF ANY WELL
DEFINED "WARM CONVEYOR" BELT STRETCHING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE FOR A WAVE LIKE THIS.
TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING BEFORE TRAVERSING THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO THE THIS EVENING. SFC LOW
TRACK...PRETTY MUCH ALL RECENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS (NAM/GFS/GEM/EURO/
UKMET) ARE IN DECENT LOCK STEP AND HAVE ALL TRENDED THE SFC LOW
TRACK JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
ESSENTIALLY UP THROUGH LUDINGTON TO HOUGHTON LAKE TO ALPENA INTO
LAKE HURON BY 00Z. BIGGEST IMPLICATION OF COURSE RESTS WITH PRECIP
TYPE AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST SIMPLY DOES NOT PUSH AS FAR NORTH
AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. STILL...HIGH RESOLUTION RUC AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO STILL PUSH A MODEST ELEVATED WARM NOSE (+1 TO
+2C) AROUND 900 MB AS FAR NORTH AS THE TIP OF THE MITT (ALREADY HAD
IT YESTERDAY EVENING PER 00Z APX SOUNDING) WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING MAINTAINS OR PUSHES SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
TODAY. SO...I THINK THE OVERALL LAYOUT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL
PRETTY GOOD WITH ALL SNOW IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/RAIN-SNOW-SLEET
OVER A CHUNK OF NRN LOWER PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
RAIN M-72 SOUTH...WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DON/T THINK THAT
ICING WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THIS GO AROUND AS SFC TEMPS WILL WARM
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE FREEZING WHERE LIQUID PRECIP WILL FALL AND NOW
THAT A GOOD PORTION OF AREA ROADWAYS HAVE LOST THE SNOW PACK IN
RECENT DAYS.
TONIGHT...CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO
CANADA WHILE TYPICAL WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND PRECIP SWINGS UP THROUGH NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE CWA AS COLDER AIR COLLAPSES BACK THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP MAY HANG ON IN THE SE COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. DOESN/T GET COLD ENOUGH TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE TRUE SENSE OF BANDED NW FLOW LAKE SNOWS. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL WITHIN GUIDANCE OF GETTING A BIT OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT HANGS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NW
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. TERRAIN MAY ALSO HELP
THINGS OUT AS WELL...AND WE COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE
NUDGED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A LITTLE TO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. BUT
DAY CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL AND DECIDE IF A
HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS AND A HEADLINE IS WARRANTED.
SO NEXT QUESTION BECOMES...WHAT SORT OF HEADLINE CHANGES DO WE NEED.
AS ELUDED TO EARLIER...THUS FAR I/M UNIMPRESSED BY THE MOISTURE FEED
INTO THIS SYSTEM AND THE TOTAL PRECIP THIS SYSTEM IS/WILL ACTUALLY
PRODUCE. U.S. RADAR MOSAIC BEARS THIS OUT WITH A DEFINITIVE LACK OF
A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND OVERALL MEAGER UPSTREAM PRECIP TOTALS THUS
FAR DESPITE ITS GREAT DYNAMICS. SURE...THERE IS A NICE INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY NOW PUSHING UP THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN AHEAD
OF LEAD VORTICITY CENTER THAT WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND
SNOWFALL SLIDING UP THROUGH NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. BUT SO FAR IT/S NOT SHAPING UP TO BE
A BIG HITTER IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT.
SO...IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...HAVE LOWERED OVERALL SNOWFALL JUST
A LITTLE. BUT STILL THINK A GOOD 2 TO MAYBE 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THERE TODAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. AND GIVEN THIS WILL BE
A WETTER/HEAVIER SNOW...WILL LEAVE THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ALONE FOR NOW.
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AGAIN...DON/T THINK ICING WILL BE A BIG ISSUE
TODAY ALTHOUGH MIXY PRECIP EARLY ON COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT. BUT EVEN SO I ONLY HAVE UP
TO 3 INCHES IN THERE NOW. THUS...NOT PLANNING ANY HEADLINES FOR NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN JUST YET. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING TO ADDRESS MIXED PRECIP ISSUES AND
SLICK TRAVEL POSSIBILITIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
WEATHER IMPACTS: GENERALLY MINOR. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH THURSDAY. MODERATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
EXPECTED WEATHER EVOLUTION: THURSDAY...POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE /ESPECIALLY
EARLY THURSDAY/ DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE ABOVE OTHERWISE SHALLOW INVERSION. WITH ONLY MINOR LAKE
CONTRIBUTIONS /H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C/ AND A RAPID DECREASE IN
MOISTURE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF NEW
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY FAVORED SECTIONS OF NW LOWER. THE
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO FLURRIES AS SURFACE RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...AND RESULT IN AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS /WENT SEVERAL DEG BELOW
GUIDANCE/.
FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WNW BY LATE IN THE DAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FROM MN ARROWHEAD INTO THE U.P. BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF SYSTEM. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NW LOWER AND E
UPPER AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSH EWD. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SAME OLD STORY.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY /SOME 10-20F/ BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS...THANKS TO PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA AND UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ALONG WEST COAST. AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE VERY COLD AIR
SPILLS SWD ACROSS REGION SUNDAY /FEATURING H8 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN
NEAR -20C/. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED COLD BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS /WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED/. THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD /SNOW AND POSSIBLY
WIND/ ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS
SEWD OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 909 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW FL010 AND VISIBILITIES
REDUCED TO UNDER 3SM IN SNOW. MBL AND TVC SHOULD SEE RAIN...APN -FZRA
CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AND -SN AT PLN.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS
FOR ALL TAF SITES. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY...REDUCING VISIBILITIES WITH FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. CEILINGS WILL FINALLY BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ008-
015.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
921 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN LOWER...WITH MAINLY SNOW
FOR UPPER MICHIGAN. COOLER AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO
SNOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO AN END ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THIN CORRIDOR OF LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD UP INTO NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...SLIGHTLY AHEAD SCHEDULE.
HAVE TWEAKED FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. PRECIP IS LIGHT...BUT MAY BE
PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT ICING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
WHERE TEMPS ARE LESS THAN 32F. HAVE ISSUED SPS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
...MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TODAY THEN BACK TO SNOW
OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS AS OF 08Z. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEARLY CLOSED-OFF
LOWER LEVEL (H8-H7) CIRCULATION NEAR THE IOWA/WISCONSIN BORDER WITH
AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS AND SPOTTY PRECIP (SNOW) STRETCHING
FROM IOWA INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER
DEFINED AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER PRECIP NOTED ACROSS ILLINOIS
CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC LOW AND LEAD VORTICITY MAX. THUS FAR...
DESPITE HOW WELL DEFINED THIS SYSTEM IS...GOOD MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
GULF IS DEFINITELY ON THE LACKING SIDE OF THINGS AS EVIDENCED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE GULF LARGELY IN THE 40S AND A LACK OF ANY WELL
DEFINED "WARM CONVEYOR" BELT STRETCHING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE FOR A WAVE LIKE THIS.
TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING BEFORE TRAVERSING THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO THE THIS EVENING. SFC LOW
TRACK...PRETTY MUCH ALL RECENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS (NAM/GFS/GEM/EURO/
UKMET) ARE IN DECENT LOCK STEP AND HAVE ALL TRENDED THE SFC LOW
TRACK JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
ESSENTIALLY UP THROUGH LUDINGTON TO HOUGHTON LAKE TO ALPENA INTO
LAKE HURON BY 00Z. BIGGEST IMPLICATION OF COURSE RESTS WITH PRECIP
TYPE AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST SIMPLY DOES NOT PUSH AS FAR NORTH
AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. STILL...HIGH RESOLUTION RUC AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO STILL PUSH A MODEST ELEVATED WARM NOSE (+1 TO
+2C) AROUND 900 MB AS FAR NORTH AS THE TIP OF THE MITT (ALREADY HAD
IT YESTERDAY EVENING PER 00Z APX SOUNDING) WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING MAINTAINS OR PUSHES SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
TODAY. SO...I THINK THE OVERALL LAYOUT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL
PRETTY GOOD WITH ALL SNOW IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/RAIN-SNOW-SLEET
OVER A CHUNK OF NRN LOWER PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
RAIN M-72 SOUTH...WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DON/T THINK THAT
ICING WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THIS GO AROUND AS SFC TEMPS WILL WARM
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE FREEZING WHERE LIQUID PRECIP WILL FALL AND NOW
THAT A GOOD PORTION OF AREA ROADWAYS HAVE LOST THE SNOW PACK IN
RECENT DAYS.
TONIGHT...CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO
CANADA WHILE TYPICAL WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND PRECIP SWINGS UP THROUGH NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE CWA AS COLDER AIR COLLAPSES BACK THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP MAY HANG ON IN THE SE COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. DOESN/T GET COLD ENOUGH TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE TRUE SENSE OF BANDED NW FLOW LAKE SNOWS. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL WITHIN GUIDANCE OF GETTING A BIT OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT HANGS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NW
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. TERRAIN MAY ALSO HELP
THINGS OUT AS WELL...AND WE COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE
NUDGED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A LITTLE TO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. BUT
DAY CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL AND DECIDE IF A
HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS AND A HEADLINE IS WARRANTED.
SO NEXT QUESTION BECOMES...WHAT SORT OF HEADLINE CHANGES DO WE NEED.
AS ELUDED TO EARLIER...THUS FAR I/M UNIMPRESSED BY THE MOISTURE FEED
INTO THIS SYSTEM AND THE TOTAL PRECIP THIS SYSTEM IS/WILL ACTUALLY
PRODUCE. U.S. RADAR MOSAIC BEARS THIS OUT WITH A DEFINITIVE LACK OF
A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND OVERALL MEAGER UPSTREAM PRECIP TOTALS THUS
FAR DESPITE ITS GREAT DYNAMICS. SURE...THERE IS A NICE INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY NOW PUSHING UP THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN AHEAD
OF LEAD VORTICITY CENTER THAT WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND
SNOWFALL SLIDING UP THROUGH NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. BUT SO FAR IT/S NOT SHAPING UP TO BE
A BIG HITTER IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT.
SO...IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...HAVE LOWERED OVERALL SNOWFALL JUST
A LITTLE. BUT STILL THINK A GOOD 2 TO MAYBE 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THERE TODAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. AND GIVEN THIS WILL BE
A WETTER/HEAVIER SNOW...WILL LEAVE THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ALONE FOR NOW.
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AGAIN...DON/T THINK ICING WILL BE A BIG ISSUE
TODAY ALTHOUGH MIXY PRECIP EARLY ON COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT. BUT EVEN SO I ONLY HAVE UP
TO 3 INCHES IN THERE NOW. THUS...NOT PLANNING ANY HEADLINES FOR NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN JUST YET. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING TO ADDRESS MIXED PRECIP ISSUES AND
SLICK TRAVEL POSSIBILITIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
WEATHER IMPACTS: GENERALLY MINOR. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH THURSDAY. MODERATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
EXPECTED WEATHER EVOLUTION: THURSDAY...POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE /ESPECIALLY
EARLY THURSDAY/ DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE ABOVE OTHERWISE SHALLOW INVERSION. WITH ONLY MINOR LAKE
CONTRIBUTIONS /H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C/ AND A RAPID DECREASE IN
MOISTURE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF NEW
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY FAVORED SECTIONS OF NW LOWER. THE
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO FLURRIES AS SURFACE RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...AND RESULT IN AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS /WENT SEVERAL DEG BELOW
GUIDANCE/.
FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WNW BY LATE IN THE DAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FROM MN ARROWHEAD INTO THE U.P. BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF SYSTEM. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NW LOWER AND E
UPPER AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSH EWD. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SAME OLD STORY.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY /SOME 10-20F/ BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS...THANKS TO PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA AND UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ALONG WEST COAST. AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE VERY COLD AIR
SPILLS SWD ACROSS REGION SUNDAY /FEATURING H8 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN
NEAR -20C/. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED COLD BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS /WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED/. THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD /SNOW AND POSSIBLY
WIND/ ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS
SEWD OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 909 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW FL010 AND VISIBILITIES
REDUCED TO UNDER 3SM IN SNOW. MBL AND TVC SHOULD SEE RAIN...APN -FZRA
CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AND -SN AT PLN.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS
FOR ALL TAF SITES. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY...REDUCING VISIBILITIES WITH FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. CEILINGS WILL FINALLY BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ008-
015.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
654 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN LOWER...WITH MAINLY SNOW
FOR UPPER MICHIGAN. COOLER AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO
SNOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO AN END ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THIN CORRIDOR OF LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD UP INTO NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...SLIGHTLY AHEAD SCHEDULE.
HAVE TWEAKED FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. PRECIP IS LIGHT...BUT MAY BE
PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT ICING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
WHERE TEMPS ARE LESS THAN 32F. HAVE ISSUED SPS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
...MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TODAY THEN BACK TO SNOW
OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS AS OF 08Z. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEARLY CLOSED-OFF
LOWER LEVEL (H8-H7) CIRCULATION NEAR THE IOWA/WISCONSIN BORDER WITH
AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS AND SPOTTY PRECIP (SNOW) STRETCHING
FROM IOWA INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER
DEFINED AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER PRECIP NOTED ACROSS ILLINOIS
CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC LOW AND LEAD VORTICITY MAX. THUS FAR...
DESPITE HOW WELL DEFINED THIS SYSTEM IS...GOOD MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
GULF IS DEFINITELY ON THE LACKING SIDE OF THINGS AS EVIDENCED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE GULF LARGELY IN THE 40S AND A LACK OF ANY WELL
DEFINED "WARM CONVEYOR" BELT STRETCHING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE FOR A WAVE LIKE THIS.
TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING BEFORE TRAVERSING THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO THE THIS EVENING. SFC LOW
TRACK...PRETTY MUCH ALL RECENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS (NAM/GFS/GEM/EURO/
UKMET) ARE IN DECENT LOCK STEP AND HAVE ALL TRENDED THE SFC LOW
TRACK JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
ESSENTIALLY UP THROUGH LUDINGTON TO HOUGHTON LAKE TO ALPENA INTO
LAKE HURON BY 00Z. BIGGEST IMPLICATION OF COURSE RESTS WITH PRECIP
TYPE AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST SIMPLY DOES NOT PUSH AS FAR NORTH
AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. STILL...HIGH RESOLUTION RUC AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO STILL PUSH A MODEST ELEVATED WARM NOSE (+1 TO
+2C) AROUND 900 MB AS FAR NORTH AS THE TIP OF THE MITT (ALREADY HAD
IT YESTERDAY EVENING PER 00Z APX SOUNDING) WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING MAINTAINS OR PUSHES SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
TODAY. SO...I THINK THE OVERALL LAYOUT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL
PRETTY GOOD WITH ALL SNOW IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/RAIN-SNOW-SLEET
OVER A CHUNK OF NRN LOWER PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
RAIN M-72 SOUTH...WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DON/T THINK THAT
ICING WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THIS GO AROUND AS SFC TEMPS WILL WARM
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE FREEZING WHERE LIQUID PRECIP WILL FALL AND NOW
THAT A GOOD PORTION OF AREA ROADWAYS HAVE LOST THE SNOW PACK IN
RECENT DAYS.
TONIGHT...CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO
CANADA WHILE TYPICAL WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND PRECIP SWINGS UP THROUGH NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE CWA AS COLDER AIR COLLAPSES BACK THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP MAY HANG ON IN THE SE COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. DOESN/T GET COLD ENOUGH TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE TRUE SENSE OF BANDED NW FLOW LAKE SNOWS. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL WITHIN GUIDANCE OF GETTING A BIT OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT HANGS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NW
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. TERRAIN MAY ALSO HELP
THINGS OUT AS WELL...AND WE COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE
NUDGED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A LITTLE TO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. BUT
DAY CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL AND DECIDE IF A
HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS AND A HEADLINE IS WARRANTED.
SO NEXT QUESTION BECOMES...WHAT SORT OF HEADLINE CHANGES DO WE NEED.
AS ELUDED TO EARLIER...THUS FAR I/M UNIMPRESSED BY THE MOISTURE FEED
INTO THIS SYSTEM AND THE TOTAL PRECIP THIS SYSTEM IS/WILL ACTUALLY
PRODUCE. U.S. RADAR MOSAIC BEARS THIS OUT WITH A DEFINITIVE LACK OF
A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND OVERALL MEAGER UPSTREAM PRECIP TOTALS THUS
FAR DESPITE ITS GREAT DYNAMICS. SURE...THERE IS A NICE INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY NOW PUSHING UP THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN AHEAD
OF LEAD VORTICITY CENTER THAT WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND
SNOWFALL SLIDING UP THROUGH NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. BUT SO FAR IT/S NOT SHAPING UP TO BE
A BIG HITTER IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT.
SO...IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...HAVE LOWERED OVERALL SNOWFALL JUST
A LITTLE. BUT STILL THINK A GOOD 2 TO MAYBE 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THERE TODAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. AND GIVEN THIS WILL BE
A WETTER/HEAVIER SNOW...WILL LEAVE THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ALONE FOR NOW.
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AGAIN...DON/T THINK ICING WILL BE A BIG ISSUE
TODAY ALTHOUGH MIXY PRECIP EARLY ON COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT. BUT EVEN SO I ONLY HAVE UP
TO 3 INCHES IN THERE NOW. THUS...NOT PLANNING ANY HEADLINES FOR NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN JUST YET. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING TO ADDRESS MIXED PRECIP ISSUES AND
SLICK TRAVEL POSSIBILITIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
WEATHER IMPACTS: GENERALLY MINOR. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH THURSDAY. MODERATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
EXPECTED WEATHER EVOLUTION: THURSDAY...POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE /ESPECIALLY
EARLY THURSDAY/ DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE ABOVE OTHERWISE SHALLOW INVERSION. WITH ONLY MINOR LAKE
CONTRIBUTIONS /H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C/ AND A RAPID DECREASE IN
MOISTURE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF NEW
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY FAVORED SECTIONS OF NW LOWER. THE
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO FLURRIES AS SURFACE RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...AND RESULT IN AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS /WENT SEVERAL DEG BELOW
GUIDANCE/.
FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WNW BY LATE IN THE DAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FROM MN ARROWHEAD INTO THE U.P. BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF SYSTEM. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NW LOWER AND E
UPPER AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSH EWD. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SAME OLD STORY.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY /SOME 10-20F/ BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS...THANKS TO PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA AND UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ALONG WEST COAST. AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE VERY COLD AIR
SPILLS SWD ACROSS REGION SUNDAY /FEATURING H8 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN
NEAR -20C/. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED COLD BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS /WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED/. THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD /SNOW AND POSSIBLY
WIND/ ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS
SEWD OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR LATE TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIP DEVELOPS FROM MBL/TVC
(AROUND 08Z) TO PLN/APN BY 10Z IN RESPONSE TO DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK DIRECTLY OVER NRN LWR MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS ALL LIQUID FOR TVC AND MBL LATE
TONIGHT...BUT AS A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/POSSIBLY SOME SLEET
BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP WILL REMAIN MIXED FOR THE TIP OF THE MITT (PLN) ALL DAY.
E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME VARIABLE LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ008-
015.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...MR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
618 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE INTO SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY...ACROSS WRN
ND/ERN MT AND SOUTH THROUGH ERN WY WILL MOVE MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. THE DEVELOPING CHINOOK BEHIND THE FRONT
SENDS H850MB TEMPS IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS ACROSS WRN NEB.
THE RAP SUGGESTED NEAR 50 FOR A HIGH ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE ZONES
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. IT WAS THE WARMEST MODEL. TEMPS WERE MARKED
DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NEWLY FORMED DEEP SNOW COVER OVER
NCNTL NEB.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD MELT A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS SNOW FIELD. THERE IS STILL COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH
MIGHT SUSTAIN A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE RAP
SUGGESTED A PERIOD OF STRATUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING BUT
SATELLITE SHOWS THOSE CLOUDS ANCHORED ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE FCST
AREA AND LIKELY THE RESULT OF REMNANT COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
TUESDAYS CYCLONE.
THE CHINOOK STRENGTHENS TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY H850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KT. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL REMAIN IN THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS. THE BEST GUESS ON LOWS IS MID AND UPPER 20S
BUT THE MODELS MAY BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SET TO CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK WINDS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE 60S. DID COOL HIGHS JUST A BIT...MID TO UPPER
50S...IN AREAS OF SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS COOLING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AT ALL LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR
SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS WILL BE AN OPEN WAVE...AND SHOULD PASS QUICKLY WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT
CONTINUED BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO OOZE SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE PASSAGE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FCST
AREA TODAY SPREADING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES NORTH. OTHERWISE NO CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1026 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
ADDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG...NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AS THE 11
UTC HRRR AND 00 UTC 4KM WRF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS
DEPICT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH 100-150 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FOG TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BASED UPON WEBCAM OBSERVATIONS FROM 13-14 UTC. POPS
ALSO ADJUSTED FOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
UPDATE FOR TIMING AND INCREASING THE AREAL EXTENT OF SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS HAD INCREASED IN INTENSITY
WITH TIME THE PAST FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN HOURLY
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST REFLECTIVITIES AND THE
LATEST 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE ON TIMING HAS BEEN NEARLY SPOT
ON...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT SHOWERS TO STAY ISOLATED TONIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES QUICK BURSTS OF
SNOW COULD LAY DOWN UP TO AN INCH IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
THE TREND FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAINS ON TRACK.
ON THURSDAY A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN MONTANA AT DAYBREAK MOVES
INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IMPULSE WILL INDUCE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY OVER MONTANA AND
INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE
TO 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD ADVECTION BEGINS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING...AND CONTINUE AS SNOW LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN EARNEST FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY REACH ONLY INTO THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO MID/UPPER
30S SOUTH. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW MAY BEGIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH...BUT COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. MUCH BELOW
AVERAGE LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXPECTED - WITH LOWS FROM AROUND
ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING LATE THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD CANADIAN ARCTIC HIGH MOVES SOUTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE FOLLOWING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
CLIPPER...AND HIGHS SATURDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. LOWS OF ZERO TO 5 BELOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
TEENS SOUTH AND WEST.
A SLOW RECOVERY BEGINS SUNDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
AND BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ON MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 20S
AND 30S EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS
OF A BIT OF A RECOVERY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S
AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH KJMS BY 1530 UTC. LIFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KISN THROUGH 16-17 UTC.
MVFR STRATUS AT KBIS AND KDIK WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
IMPACT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS PRIOR TO SUNSET.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1008 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 CDT WED MAR 19 2014
15 UTC RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP FROM CARRINGTON
TO MOBRIDGE SD IN CONNECTION WITH WEAK A SHORT-WAVE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND. REPORTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LIGHT
SNOW...BUT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING...PRECIP
SHOULD SLOWLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
POPS/P-TYPE FOCUSING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL. WESTERN MN REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUD COVER AND WITH LATEST RAP LOW-LEVEL RH SUGGESTING SLOW
CLEARING...RAISED SKY COVER THROUGH 00 UTC. TEMPERATURES TODAY
MAINLY A REFLECTION OF CLOUD COVER...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE EAST AND INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
NO FORECAST CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND LATE WORK WEEK
SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN LOW TRACK AND
QPF AMOUNTS/LOCATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. WILL USE BLEND FOR CURRENT FORECAST.
FOR TODAY WEAK SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE ACROSS W ND AND WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY. WILL BE MONITORING A SMALL AREA OF -SN
OVER NW ND AS IT PROPAGATES SE. MAINTAINED ISOLD RW/SW MENTION
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND WILL HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WE WILL LOSE CLOUDS SO STAYED
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
RESPECTABLE Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE/IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE THIS EVENING SO
COULD SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH BUILDS IN.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND WEAK RETURN FLOW HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
FA.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN MIXING AHEAD
OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE THURSDAY. SOME PCPN LIKELY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
MODELS DIFFER SOME ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AS IT PROPAGATES WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE A
BEARING ON WHERE BEST PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE. GENERAL CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT THAT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FA WILL SE
BEST CHANCES AND INCREASED POPS THIS AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO MAINLY SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SOME RESPECTABLE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
AS LOW PASSES EAST FRIDAY WILL SEE SHARP COLD ADVECTION...WINDY
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE -SN AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA.
BASED ON EXPECTED WIND COULD SEE SOME BLSN FRIDAY AND THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END FRIDAY EVENING. COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES HOWEVER MIXING SHOULD HOLD MINIMUMS ABOVE ZERO.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. BY DAY 6 THE ECMWF IS FASTER THEN THE GFS. THE TWO MODELS
ARE ESSENTIALLY OUT OF PHASE BY DAY 7. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOWER ONE DEGREE IN
THE NORTH ON SUN AND RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
COMBINATION OF CURRENT MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER FA AND UPSTREAM VFR CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE WILL KEEP REGION MAINLY CLOUD COVERED
GOOD PART OF THE DAY. DO EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
344 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER THE
AREA WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SATELLITE SHOWING WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING AT THIS TIME...EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN COLORADO. SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK WAVE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT GUSTY
ACROSS THE RIDGES AND PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS...DUE MAINLY TO
MIXING. WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE CIRRUS
WITH THE PASSING WAVE. SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE WAVE WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE THE WINDS A BIT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. OVERNIGHT THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
AS THE GREAT BASIN UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT. SPATIAL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE LATEST RUC SHOWING ABOUT 40 KTS AT MOUNTAIN TOP. THERE ARE
HINTS AT A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. SOME FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS COULD SEE GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. WEAK
MID LEVEL DESCENT COMBINED WITH MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP GUSTY
WINDS GOING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE PLAINS...DOWNSLOPE
WINDS TO PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON WITH MORE OF A NORTHWEST COMPONENT
AFTER 18Z. MAY ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
BORDERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. WARMER AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO
THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...A PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ONE WEATHER DISTURBANCE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER ONE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH THE UPPER FEATURES...SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL DROP OVER
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOL SIDE. AS THE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
ALSO BE IN THE VICINITY TO HELP ORGANIZE THE PASSING SYSTEMS.
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR RECEIVING OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL WITH EACH SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MOISTURE CONTENT SEEMS
LIMITED SINCE THE SYSTEMS ARE COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. ON THE OTHER HAND...EACH SYSTEM WILL TAKE 24-30 HOURS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS
TO ACCUMULATE. ON THE PLAINS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE RANGE
THAT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS TO
SWITCH TO MORE OF A DRAINAGE PATTERN THIS EVENING. SPEEDS AROUND 8
KTS TO PREVAIL...THOUGH KBJC MAY SEE SOME BRIEF GUSTS TO 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KTS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. VFR TO PREVAIL WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
237 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
AN ACTIVE SHORT WAVE PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TODAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. SOME WEAK POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN NOTED PER RAP ANALYSIS ALONG LOW LEVEL
WARM FRONTAL ZONE...BUT OVERALL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DEPTH HAS
BEEN LACKING WITH THIS LEAD VORT MAX. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MOIST
TONGUE WILL BE ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG VORT MAX KICKING OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. A
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OFF THIS WAVE WILL ALSO LIFT INTO THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. COMBINATION OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND NOTABLE
UPPER DVG IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 130 KNOT JET CORE NOSING INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN INDIANA SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
EXPANSION OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH
EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN DYNAMICS/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA GIVEN NORTHEAST TRACK OF EASTERN MISSOURI VORT MAX. BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...PREFRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD TEND TO INCREASE FRONTAL
RESPONSE IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE...AND GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER DVG FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK...WILL CONTINUE
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL
EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS RANGE...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER DOES APPEAR TO BE IN PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHIFT
EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. DIFFICULT DIURNAL TREND TO RESOLVE
TEMPERATURE WISE TODAY GIVEN EFFECTS FROM PRECIPITATION AND
STRONGER CAA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WARMEST HIGHS AROUND 50
STILL APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS...WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...TRANSITION TO NEUTRAL OR
A SLIGHT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR DEEPEST
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH TROWAL WRAPPING BACK
TO THE WEST. ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM WAVES DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
MARGINAL WET BULB PROFILES AND PROGRESSION OF DEEPER MOISTURE
PROFILES EAST OF THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A DUSTING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE BETTER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DIMINISHES AND AS CONTINUED SHEARED VORTICES DROP INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...WILL OMIT MENTION IN FORECAST AT
THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND SHORT DURATION OF
THIS POTENTIAL. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS/CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
MINS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FLATTER PACIFIC DOMINANT FLOW REGIME EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS DAY TO DAY. MODEST HEIGHT
RISES IN WAKE OF TODAY`S UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO
BRIEFLY BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL WORK
QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. LEFTOVER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS. MAY SEE A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW MIX) DEVELOP
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS CONVERGENCE BRIEFLY
INCREASES/DEEPENS ALONG BOUNDARY ON NOSE OF DEVELOPING LLJ...WITH
SOME ADDED ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING LEAD/WEAK/SHEARED MID LEVEL
IMPULSE. SHIFTED AXIS OF HIGHER CHC POPS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FA GIVEN TRENDS IN 12/00Z MODELS. REGARDLESS...EXPECT
ANY RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT WITH NO HYDRO/TRAVEL CONCERNS
ANTICIPATED.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATER
FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO
LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ENOUGH INSOLATION WITH 925
MB TEMPS SURGING TO BTW 10-12C WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE BY LATE IN THE
DAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR INDIANA/OHIO ZONES. THIS WARM UP WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE SHORT
LIVED AS AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY AND ASSOCIATED
DEEPENING SFC REFLECTION TRACKING EAST THROUGH MICHIGAN FORCES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST A BROKEN
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS 15 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF FRONT.
A TREND TOWARD EVEN COLDER TEMPS ANTICIPATED BEHIND A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST FORCING BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A SFC HIGH OF NORTHWEST
CANADA ORIGINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY/COLD CONDITIONS BEFORE A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGS SOME SNOW TO THE AREA AROUND MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
AN AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE SBN
AREA VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. KEPT A SHORT DURATION IFR TEMPO
GROUP FOR THIS AREA OF RAIN. WINDS WILL VEER AFTER FROPA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AT SBN. IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN...LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH EVENTUALLY
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVERNIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION...WITH MAIN CENTER ACROSS SW
KS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOMINATED BY RIDING...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS/POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY. THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING DUE TO MELTING
SNOW...BUT WITH AIR MASS ALOFT WARMING THE TEMP TREND HAS BEEN
POSITIVE. I WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS...OTHERWISE AFTERNOON FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. WE COULD STILL SEE A SMALL AREA OF EASTERN RED
WILLOW/NORTHERN NORTON COUNTY IMPACTED BY SNOW PACK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (WHERE AMOUNTS 5-6" FELL)...OTHERWISE THIS SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WAA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH GOOD MIXING WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S (POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IN THE WEST). LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD
ALSO MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES WELL
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR CWA (MINIMAL SURFACE GRADIENT) WE WILL NEED WINDS ALOFT
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE MUCH OTHER THAN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. THERE IS A LACK OF UNIDIRECTIONAL
GRADIENT ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A VERTICAL THERMAL
GRADIENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS I AM WONDERING IF MODEL WINDS ARE TOO
STRONG ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON GUSTS IS EVEN SMALLER. I
DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH (ASSUMING
MODEL WINDS ALOFT ARE RIGHT) DUE TO THE FAVORABLE MIXING...BUT I
DOUBT THIS WOULD BE FOR 3HR IF IT DID OCCUR. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
RECENT SNOW MELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND MARGINAL WINDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA I AM NOT PLANNING A RFW AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
THIS FAR SOUTH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 09Z-12Z.
SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH AT 20-25 KNOTS FRIDAY...
PER THE HIGHER WIND SPEED SOLUTIONS PRESENTED BY THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER FROM THURSDAY
DUE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH 250 MB JET CORE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT
SOME UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND POSITION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET. EXPECT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY BY 12Z SATURDAY.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT KEEPING LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE DAY. BASED ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES...PLACED
A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE MORNING...
BECOMING ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WEAK SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED OVER THE AREA...BUT A
COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SO...EXPECT DRY WEATHER...BUT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A VERY AMPLIFIED 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS OR THEIR INTENSITIES. FOR NOW...KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WEST COAST RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES
EAST BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. W-SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF GUSTS 15-20KT WITH DAYTIME
MIXING...QUICKLY DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1236 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION...WITH MAIN CENTER ACROSS SW
KS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOMINATED BY RIDING...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS/POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY. THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING DUE TO MELTING
SNOW...BUT WITH AIR MASS ALOFT WARMING THE TEMP TREND HAS BEEN
POSITIVE. I WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS...OTHERWISE AFTERNOON FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. WE COULD STILL SEE A SMALL AREA OF EASTERN RED
WILLOW/NORTHERN NORTON COUNTY IMPACTED BY SNOW PACK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (WHERE AMOUNTS 5-6" FELL)...OTHERWISE THIS SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW (GOOD WAA) WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH GOOD MIXING WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S (POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IN THE WEST). LOW TD VALUES
SHOULD ALSO MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES WELL
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR CWA (MINIMAL SURFACE GRADIENT) WE WILL NEED WINDS ALOFT TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE IF WE ARE GOING TO SEE MUCH OTHER THAN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. THERE IS A LACK OF UNIDIRECTIONAL
GRADIENT ALOFT AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A VERTICAL THERMAL
GRADIENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS I AM WONDERING IF MODEL WINDS ARE TOO
STRONG ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON GUSTS IS EVEN SMALLER. I DO
NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH
(ASSUMING MODEL WINDS ALOFT ARE RIGHT) DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
MIXING...BUT I DOUBT THIS WOULD BE FOR 3HR IF IT DID OCCUR. TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT RECENT SNOW MELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND MARGINAL
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA I AM NOT PLANNING A RFW AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE
INVERSION WILL PREVENT THE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN UNTIL MID
MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE AREA THE WINDS WILL DECLINE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE
FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 500MB JET WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA...WITH THE MAIN JET NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS DISAGREE WHEN A
700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT. AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES SATURATED. WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
FROM THE 500MB JET OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS LIFT FROM THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LOW PRECIP.
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A RESULT. WILL HAVE
THE PRECIP. CHANCES GOING FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIP SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...MOSTLY SNOW. GUIDANCE CAME IN A
BIT STRONGER WITH PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...INCLUDING THE PREVIOUS OUTLIER GFS/GEFS COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS
ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. ECMWF HAS THIS TROUGH FURTHEST NORTH...GEM IN THE
MIDDLE...AND GFS FARTHER SOUTH AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT LIFT IN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS IS SLOWER TO SATURATE LOWER LEVELS THAN GEM/ECMWF...BUT
EITHER WAY TOTAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY MONDAY...BUT A THIS POINT
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED. AS WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE WET THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...WITH MDL ECMWF MOS PRODUCING POP
GUIDANCE OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT WED MAR 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. W-SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF GUSTS 15-20KT WITH DAYTIME
MIXING...QUICKLY DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM/JTL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
549 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING. ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG U.S. 10 NEAR BALDWIN AND REED CITY. IT WILL TURN
COLDER AND BREEZY TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
TAKES AIM ON THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NO
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT WILL GRADUALLY TURN COLDER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS COLDER
AIR SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE GRAND RIVER FOR KENT AND OTTAWA
COUNTIES. ICE ON THE MOVE WITH AT LEAST ONE JAM REPORTED UPSTREAM
OF ADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERTAINS TO THE EXIT OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THE AFFECTS OF THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.
AS FOR TONIGHT...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP
AS WELL AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD SAY ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEAVING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM RETURNS TO WORK THROUGH. THE MODELS DO
SHOW A BIT OF LOW LEVEL LIFT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH IS LIKELY
DUE TO FRICTIONAL PILLING UP OF THE WIND. LAST FEW FRAMES OF KGRR
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SOME RETURNS OFF THE LAKE OVER OTTAWA AND ALLEGAN
COUNTIES. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT PRECIP IS
GENERATED OFF THE LAKE BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. DELTA T/S ONLY
RISE TO AROUND 10C BY MORNING. MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. HAVE HIGH POPS CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z...BUT TAPER
THEM BACK THEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE AT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP
ALONG U.S. 10.
DENSE FOG FORMED MIDDAY IN AN AREA OF SLACK WINDS AS THE LOW MOVED
THROUGH. MOST OF THIS HAS LIFTED WITH ONLY BIG RAPIDS AT A QUARTER.
WILL HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE ENDING AS WINDS PICK UP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
SPEAKING OF WINDS...IT WILL GET BREEZY TONIGHT WITH 15 TO 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
THINKING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE
12Z ECMWF ON KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA WHICH IS
CURRENTLY UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED ON THE
EXACT PATH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS IT ZIPS EAST IN THE ZONAL
FLOW. HAVE RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. THE PRECIP WILL
TREND TOWARD RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BACK TO SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR THE LONG TERM IS THAT THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPS
DROP DOWN TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS AND WE WILL SEE UNSETTLED WX
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE
WILL HAVE ANY MAJOR STORMS IMPACT THE AREA FROM SAT THROUGH NEXT
WED.
THE TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THIS SAT. COOLER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRI/FRI NIGHT SYSTEM. WE
SHOULD SEE A BREAK A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON SAT BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONGER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CHC FOR SOME SNOW LATE SAT AND CONTINUE THEM INTO SUN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT COMING FROM THE NORTH. ANY
DECENT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED UP WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE.
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PCPN FOR LATE SUN THROUGH THE DAY
ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FROM SAT NIGHT. SNOW CHCS WILL
INCREASE THEN ONCE AGAIN...AND ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. THE MORE IMPORTANT THING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IT WILL HELP
TO ESTABLISH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE ERN U.S.. THE UPPER
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL BE COMING FROM NEAR SIBERIA AND THE ARCTIC AS
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR STRONG ALASKA/WRN COAST UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL REVISIT
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF OF THE LONG TERM...AND MOST LIKELY MANY
DAYS BEYOND THE CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THE WORST IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS WILL COME IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE 18Z FCST. RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ARE IN THE
BEGINNING STAGES OF MOVING OUT. LOW CIGS AND VSBYS ARE IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AT KGRR AND KMKG CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
STORM SYSTEM AND UNDER WEAK WINDS. IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS BEFORE
CIGS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SLOW AND
GRADUAL.
ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. WE EXPECT PCPN TO END AT MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KMKG. THEY WILL
SEE THE DIMINISHING PCPN STARTING TO MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. WINDS WILL BEGIN GUSTING FROM THE WEST
UP TO 20-25 KNOTS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO THE HIGHER MVFR CATEGORY. WE EXPECT
CIGS TO SCATTER OUT LATE THU MORNING/THU AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 545 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LARGE CHUNKS OF ICE WERE ON THE MOVE AROUND COMSTOCK PARK AND AN
ICE JAM WAS REPORTED UPSTREAM OF THE THORNAPPLE ENTRY ON THE GRAND
IN ADA. WATER WAS RISING BEHIND THE JAM. WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS. CLOSE MONITORING WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MIZ056-057.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...MJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING. ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG U.S. 10 NEAR BALDWIN AND REED CITY. IT WILL TURN
COLDER AND BREEZY TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
TAKES AIM ON THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NO
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT WILL GRADUALLY TURN COLDER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS COLDER
AIR SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERTAINS TO THE EXIT OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THE AFFECTS OF THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM.
AS FOR TONIGHT...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP
AS WELL AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD SAY ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEAVING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM RETURNS TO WORK THROUGH. THE MODELS DO
SHOW A BIT OF LOW LEVEL LIFT OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH IS LIKELY
DUE TO FRICTIONAL PILLING UP OF THE WIND. LAST FEW FRAMES OF KGRR
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SOME RETURNS OFF THE LAKE OVER OTTAWA AND ALLEGAN
COUNTIES. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER OR NOT PRECIP IS
GENERATED OFF THE LAKE BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. DELTA T/S ONLY
RISE TO AROUND 10C BY MORNING. MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. HAVE HIGH POPS CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z...BUT TAPER
THEM BACK THEN THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE AT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP
ALONG U.S. 10.
DENSE FOG FORMED MIDDAY IN AN AREA OF SLACK WINDS AS THE LOW MOVED
THROUGH. MOST OF THIS HAS LIFTED WITH ONLY BIG RAPIDS AT A QUARTER.
WILL HAVE IT IN THE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE ENDING AS WINDS PICK UP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
SPEAKING OF WINDS...IT WILL GET BREEZY TONIGHT WITH 15 TO 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.
THINKING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE
12Z ECMWF ON KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THESE PERIODS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA WHICH IS
CURRENTLY UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED ON THE
EXACT PATH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS IT ZIPS EAST IN THE ZONAL
FLOW. HAVE RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. THE PRECIP WILL
TREND TOWARD RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BACK TO SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER FRIDAY
NIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR THE LONG TERM IS THAT THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPS
DROP DOWN TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS AND WE WILL SEE UNSETTLED WX
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THAT SAID...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE
WILL HAVE ANY MAJOR STORMS IMPACT THE AREA FROM SAT THROUGH NEXT
WED.
THE TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THIS SAT. COOLER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRI/FRI NIGHT SYSTEM. WE
SHOULD SEE A BREAK A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON SAT BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONGER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CHC FOR SOME SNOW LATE SAT AND CONTINUE THEM INTO SUN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT COMING FROM THE NORTH. ANY
DECENT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED UP WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE.
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PCPN FOR LATE SUN THROUGH THE DAY
ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FROM SAT NIGHT. SNOW CHCS WILL
INCREASE THEN ONCE AGAIN...AND ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. THE MORE IMPORTANT THING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IT WILL HELP
TO ESTABLISH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE ERN U.S.. THE UPPER
FLOW TRAJECTORY WILL BE COMING FROM NEAR SIBERIA AND THE ARCTIC AS
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR STRONG ALASKA/WRN COAST UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL REVISIT
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF OF THE LONG TERM...AND MOST LIKELY MANY
DAYS BEYOND THE CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THE WORST IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS WILL COME IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE 18Z FCST. RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM ARE IN THE
BEGINNING STAGES OF MOVING OUT. LOW CIGS AND VSBYS ARE IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AT KGRR AND KMKG CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
STORM SYSTEM AND UNDER WEAK WINDS. IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS BEFORE
CIGS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SLOW AND
GRADUAL.
ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. WE EXPECT PCPN TO END AT MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE
CHANGING TO SNOW. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KMKG. THEY WILL
SEE THE DIMINISHING PCPN STARTING TO MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. WINDS WILL BEGIN GUSTING FROM THE WEST
UP TO 20-25 KNOTS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO THE HIGHER MVFR CATEGORY. WE EXPECT
CIGS TO SCATTER OUT LATE THU MORNING/THU AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
SNOWMELT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIVERS MAINTAINING A
STEADY RISE. MANY LOCATIONS ON THE GRAND WILL BE BETWEEN BANKFULL
AND FLOOD STAGE (IF NOT ALREADY) WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS NO MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOODING IS FORESEEN ON THE GRAND
OR OUR OTHER FORECAST POINTS WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES (IE. ALONG THE
THORNAPPLE, RED CEDAR, LOOKING GLASS, SYCAMORE CREEK, AND MAPLE
RIVER). SO...AT THIS POINT WE EXPECT CONTINUED RISES BUT NO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ALONG THE RIVERS.
WITH A DECREASING SNOWPACK...THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE
DECREASING AS WELL...ROUGHLY ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE
GRAND RIVER IN PARTICULAR. SO...A CONTINUED SLOW MELT OFF ALONG WITH
A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS PREVENTING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOOD SITUATION FROM OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
154 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN LOWER...WITH MAINLY SNOW
FOR UPPER MICHIGAN. COOLER AIR WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION BACK TO
SNOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO AN END ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
AREA REPORTS COMING IN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ARE THAT
ROADS ARE MUCH IMPROVED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...AS TEMPERATURES
CREEP UP TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING. MEANWHILE...LIGHT TO MODERATE AT
TIMES SNOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN UPPER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER
AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM (CURRENTLY RIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOWER). THUS FAR LOOKING AT SURROUNDING
RADARS...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE
TO DETERMINE IF THIS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TO WARRANT ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES THAN THE ONES
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY PAST THE CURRENT
EXPIRATION TIME OF MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
VERY BUSY MORNING SO FAR TRYING TO DECIPHER PRECIPITATION TYPES
AND IMPACTS. LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE LOW IS GOING TO END UP BEING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WHERE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...ALBEIT BY
MAYBE 25 MILES OR SO. HOWEVER...THIS LITTLE DEVIATION IN TRACK HAS
HUGE FORECAST IMPLICATIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND
TEMPERATURES TO A CERTAIN DEGREE WHICH IS ALSO HUGE DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY AROUND FREEZING. LUCKILY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A LOT
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOSTLY
UNTAPPED. HAVE NUDGED SNOW/SLEET FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS HELD
ONTO FREEZING RAIN FOR A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTH AS
WELL AS LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY AN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 3 DEGREES.
HAVE BEEN HANDLING SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS WITH SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS THUS FAR AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FOR A
WHILE BUT MAY EVENTUALLY END UP ISSUING WINTER HEADLINES DEPENDING
UPON HOW THINGS EVOLVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
THIN CORRIDOR OF LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD UP INTO NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...SLIGHTLY AHEAD SCHEDULE.
HAVE TWEAKED FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. PRECIP IS LIGHT...BUT MAY BE
PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT ICING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
WHERE TEMPS ARE LESS THAN 32F. HAVE ISSUED SPS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
...MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TODAY THEN BACK TO SNOW
OVERVIEW: POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS AS OF 08Z. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A NEARLY CLOSED-OFF
LOWER LEVEL (H8-H7) CIRCULATION NEAR THE IOWA/WISCONSIN BORDER WITH
AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION AXIS AND SPOTTY PRECIP (SNOW) STRETCHING
FROM IOWA INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER
DEFINED AND NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER PRECIP NOTED ACROSS ILLINOIS
CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC LOW AND LEAD VORTICITY MAX. THUS FAR...
DESPITE HOW WELL DEFINED THIS SYSTEM IS...GOOD MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
GULF IS DEFINITELY ON THE LACKING SIDE OF THINGS AS EVIDENCED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE GULF LARGELY IN THE 40S AND A LACK OF ANY WELL
DEFINED "WARM CONVEYOR" BELT STRETCHING UP INTO THE MIDWEST. RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE FOR A WAVE LIKE THIS.
TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING BEFORE TRAVERSING THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY INTO THE THIS EVENING. SFC LOW
TRACK...PRETTY MUCH ALL RECENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS (NAM/GFS/GEM/EURO/
UKMET) ARE IN DECENT LOCK STEP AND HAVE ALL TRENDED THE SFC LOW
TRACK JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
ESSENTIALLY UP THROUGH LUDINGTON TO HOUGHTON LAKE TO ALPENA INTO
LAKE HURON BY 00Z. BIGGEST IMPLICATION OF COURSE RESTS WITH PRECIP
TYPE AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER JUST SIMPLY DOES NOT PUSH AS FAR NORTH
AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. STILL...HIGH RESOLUTION RUC AND NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO STILL PUSH A MODEST ELEVATED WARM NOSE (+1 TO
+2C) AROUND 900 MB AS FAR NORTH AS THE TIP OF THE MITT (ALREADY HAD
IT YESTERDAY EVENING PER 00Z APX SOUNDING) WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING MAINTAINS OR PUSHES SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
TODAY. SO...I THINK THE OVERALL LAYOUT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL
PRETTY GOOD WITH ALL SNOW IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/RAIN-SNOW-SLEET
OVER A CHUNK OF NRN LOWER PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY
RAIN M-72 SOUTH...WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DON/T THINK THAT
ICING WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THIS GO AROUND AS SFC TEMPS WILL WARM
SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE FREEZING WHERE LIQUID PRECIP WILL FALL AND NOW
THAT A GOOD PORTION OF AREA ROADWAYS HAVE LOST THE SNOW PACK IN
RECENT DAYS.
TONIGHT...CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE HURON INTO
CANADA WHILE TYPICAL WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND PRECIP SWINGS UP THROUGH NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE CWA AS COLDER AIR COLLAPSES BACK THROUGH THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP MAY HANG ON IN THE SE COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. DOESN/T GET COLD ENOUGH TO GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE TRUE SENSE OF BANDED NW FLOW LAKE SNOWS. HOWEVER...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL WITHIN GUIDANCE OF GETTING A BIT OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT HANGS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF NW
LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. TERRAIN MAY ALSO HELP
THINGS OUT AS WELL...AND WE COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE
NUDGED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP A LITTLE TO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. BUT
DAY CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL AND DECIDE IF A
HIGHER SNOW ACCUMS AND A HEADLINE IS WARRANTED.
SO NEXT QUESTION BECOMES...WHAT SORT OF HEADLINE CHANGES DO WE NEED.
AS ELUDED TO EARLIER...THUS FAR I/M UNIMPRESSED BY THE MOISTURE FEED
INTO THIS SYSTEM AND THE TOTAL PRECIP THIS SYSTEM IS/WILL ACTUALLY
PRODUCE. U.S. RADAR MOSAIC BEARS THIS OUT WITH A DEFINITIVE LACK OF
A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND OVERALL MEAGER UPSTREAM PRECIP TOTALS THUS
FAR DESPITE ITS GREAT DYNAMICS. SURE...THERE IS A NICE INCREASE IN
PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY NOW PUSHING UP THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN AHEAD
OF LEAD VORTICITY CENTER THAT WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND
SNOWFALL SLIDING UP THROUGH NW LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH A GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. BUT SO FAR IT/S NOT SHAPING UP TO BE
A BIG HITTER IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT.
SO...IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...HAVE LOWERED OVERALL SNOWFALL JUST
A LITTLE. BUT STILL THINK A GOOD 2 TO MAYBE 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THERE TODAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. AND GIVEN THIS WILL BE
A WETTER/HEAVIER SNOW...WILL LEAVE THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ALONE FOR NOW.
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AGAIN...DON/T THINK ICING WILL BE A BIG ISSUE
TODAY ALTHOUGH MIXY PRECIP EARLY ON COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW LOWER
MICHIGAN DUE TO LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT. BUT EVEN SO I ONLY HAVE UP
TO 3 INCHES IN THERE NOW. THUS...NOT PLANNING ANY HEADLINES FOR NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN JUST YET. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING TO ADDRESS MIXED PRECIP ISSUES AND
SLICK TRAVEL POSSIBILITIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
WEATHER IMPACTS: GENERALLY MINOR. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH THURSDAY. MODERATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
EXPECTED WEATHER EVOLUTION: THURSDAY...POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE /ESPECIALLY
EARLY THURSDAY/ DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE ABOVE OTHERWISE SHALLOW INVERSION. WITH ONLY MINOR LAKE
CONTRIBUTIONS /H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C/ AND A RAPID DECREASE IN
MOISTURE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF NEW
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY FAVORED SECTIONS OF NW LOWER. THE
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO FLURRIES AS SURFACE RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...AND RESULT IN AT
LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS /WENT SEVERAL DEG BELOW
GUIDANCE/.
FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AS NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WNW BY LATE IN THE DAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FROM MN ARROWHEAD INTO THE U.P. BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF SYSTEM. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NW LOWER AND E
UPPER AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSH EWD. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE
30S TO AROUND 40.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...SAME OLD STORY.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY /SOME 10-20F/ BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS...THANKS TO PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER ERN NORTH
AMERICA AND UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ALONG WEST COAST. AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE VERY COLD AIR
SPILLS SWD ACROSS REGION SUNDAY /FEATURING H8 TEMPS ONCE AGAIN DOWN
NEAR -20C/. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED COLD BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS /WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED/. THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD /SNOW AND POSSIBLY
WIND/ ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPS
SEWD OUT OF CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
CEILINGS BELOW FL008 AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO UNDER 2SM IN FOG
AND MIST. ANY MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL TURN OVER TO TO ALL
SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK INTO THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
LATE TODAY AND BE GUSTY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD...REDUCING VISIBILITIES WITH FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.
CEILINGS WILL FINALLY BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND HOLD STRONG INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ008-
015.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AS
SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...AS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
601 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT PCPN TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND LAST
NIGHT HAD MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST BY 12Z THIS MORNING. HEIGHT
FALLS WERE OVER 100 METERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
NEXT AREA OF UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS SHOWN ON RADAR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND SHORT RANGE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THAT. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF AND WITH INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SNOW MELT TODAY
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT TO OUR WEST. THESE SHOULD SPREAD INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY STAYED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.
THE AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WITH STRONGEST FORCING...BUT
THIS WILL HELP BRING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. DID NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AGAIN SINCE BEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING STAYS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THOSE THURSDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THOSE
ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
COLD SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SAVE FOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
THE PATTERN OF THE WINTER WITH COLD AIR AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES
AND EAST COAST...AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS ON TAP FOR THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
SPRING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KTS
ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH THE H85 FRONT PASSING THROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC BEING A LITTLE SLOWER AND
SHIFTED MORE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...COMPARED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
PER THE GFS. FOR NOW...DO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY FOR RAIN OR SNOW. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
A FEW MOSTLY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF SITES EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING ALONG
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. HOWEVER...OTHER MID
CLOUDS COULD MOVE ACROSS AREA LATER TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING NW ND BY 12Z THU. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT PCPN TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND LAST
NIGHT HAD MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST BY 12Z THIS MORNING. HEIGHT
FALLS WERE OVER 100 METERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
NEXT AREA OF UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MID AFTERNOON SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS SHOWN ON RADAR SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AND SHORT RANGE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THAT. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF AND WITH INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SNOW MELT TODAY
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT TO OUR WEST. THESE SHOULD SPREAD INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY STAYED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...RANGING FROM
LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.
THE AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WITH STRONGEST FORCING...BUT
THIS WILL HELP BRING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. DID NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AGAIN SINCE BEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING STAYS TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THOSE THURSDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THOSE
ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
COLD SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SAVE FOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
THE PATTERN OF THE WINTER WITH COLD AIR AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES
AND EAST COAST...AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS ON TAP FOR THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
SPRING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 40KTS
ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH THE H85 FRONT PASSING THROUGH. THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC BEING A LITTLE SLOWER AND
SHIFTED MORE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...COMPARED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
PER THE GFS. FOR NOW...DO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY FOR RAIN OR SNOW. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
ONLY AVN ISSUE IS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF -SHRA/VFR
CIGS LATE THIS AFTN AT KOFK AND KOMA. OTHERWISE..VFR THRU THE FCST
PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE INTO SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY...ACROSS WRN
ND/ERN MT AND SOUTH THROUGH ERN WY WILL MOVE MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. THE DEVELOPING CHINOOK BEHIND THE FRONT
SENDS H850MB TEMPS IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS ACROSS WRN NEB.
THE RAP SUGGESTED NEAR 50 FOR A HIGH ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE ZONES
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. IT WAS THE WARMEST MODEL. TEMPS WERE MARKED
DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NEWLY FORMED DEEP SNOW COVER OVER
NCNTL NEB.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH SHOULD MELT A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS SNOW FIELD. THERE IS STILL COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH
MIGHT SUSTAIN A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE RAP
SUGGESTED A PERIOD OF STRATUS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING BUT
SATELLITE SHOWS THOSE CLOUDS ANCHORED ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE FCST
AREA AND LIKELY THE RESULT OF REMNANT COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
TUESDAYS CYCLONE.
THE CHINOOK STRENGTHENS TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY H850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KT. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL REMAIN IN THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS. THE BEST GUESS ON LOWS IS MID AND UPPER 20S
BUT THE MODELS MAY BE TOO COLD GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SET TO CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK WINDS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A MILD DAY...WITH HIGHS MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE 60S. DID COOL HIGHS JUST A BIT...MID TO UPPER
50S...IN AREAS OF SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS COOLING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AT ALL LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR
SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS WILL BE AN OPEN WAVE...AND SHOULD PASS QUICKLY WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT
CONTINUED BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR TO OOZE SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE PASSAGE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
GENERALLY A QUIET AND VFR 24 HOURS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WHICH MAY CLIP
PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL WITH SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES...HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE AN INCREASE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. ALL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AS BL DECOUPLES. TOMORROW MORNING WINDS PICK BACK UP...HOWEVER
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
532 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...BUT THIS CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING MORE RAIN OR SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TONIGHT. THIS HAS BROUGHT A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION EXTENDS
ENE OF THE LOW...BUT THIS IS ONLY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION DUE
TO DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER JUST BEHIND THIS IS AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN LIFTING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT FRONT JET STREAK...AND SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS AREA
IS LARGELY CAPTURED BY THE 12Z NAM/RGEM AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WITH IT
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE LIFT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT IT WILL BRING A ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
STARTING OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT
QPF BOTH AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...THE STEADIEST SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ITSELF...RATHER THAN AHEAD OF IT. BECAUSE OF THIS...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND THE FRONT.
THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PICK UP. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE...MAINLY DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THIS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...AND INTO THURSDAY IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
WINDY LOCATIONS INLAND. BASED ON THIS...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE WILL BE WINDY ON THURSDAY TOO...BUT
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT ONLY MARGINAL MIXING WITH WINDS
ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP GUSTS DOWN JUST A BIT.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SNOW WILL BE
STEADIER WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM UPSLOPING EAST OF THE LAKES.
FEEL MODEL QPF IS A BIT OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY INLAND AND ON THE
LAKES...BUT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD GET AN INCH
OR SO ON THURSDAY...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE IN JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC TO THE
GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. DEEP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE EVENING....WITH A FEW MORE
WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
PROVIDING SOME WEAK ASCENT. THE PRIMARY FORCING THROUGH THE EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPSLOPE FLOW...WHICH WILL FOCUS ON THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ESPECIALLY THE TUG HILL AND
WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. BY EARLY
EVENING THE COLUMN WILL HAVE COOLED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR
PRECIP TYPE...EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
EXPECT THIS TO BE FAIRLY ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF
BUFFALO MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE EVENING.
THE TUG HILL REGION MAY SEE A SOLID 3-4 INCHES AS WELL IF UPSLOPE
PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH. OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS...THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION MAY SEE AN INCH OR SO...WITH JUST A LIGHT
COATING ELSEWHERE. BLACK ICE WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EVENING
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AROUND
SUNSET. THIS MAY ALLOW WATER FROM MELTING WET SNOW TO FREEZE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SCOURED AWAY. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS WARM AIR ADVANCES INTO THE AREA WITH A
PERIOD OF WET SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY RAIN.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS WELL...BUT WITH
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN EXACT THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS TIME RANGE
WILL JUST GO WITH RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW.
THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY
MORNING. A DRY SLOT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK BEFORE SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PEAK IN THE MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION FORCING A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING NOTABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEHIND THE SATURDAY SYSTEM A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH THE
START OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS OR LOWER TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THESE NUMBERS ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OF COLD AIR WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS
APPEARS LIGHT GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TOWARDS OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY...AS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. LATEST 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAN YESTERDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP.
LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE PATTERN RELAXING BY DAY 9-10 AS WE HEAD INTO THE LAST
WEEKEND OF MARCH. A MORE ZONAL FLOW MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED AT LEAST
FOR A TIME...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A WARMING TREND IN THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SEEMS TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 21Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE STILL IN PLACE FOR ALL BUT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN (KELZ, KJHW). THIS DESPITE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
DURING THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY DIPPING TO BETWEEN 3-5SM.
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APRPAOCHING COLD FRONT SOULD KEEP CIGS
ABV 3K FT...BUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT (AFT 04Z)...WE CAN EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BY
DAYBREAK...IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST SITES.
ON THURSDAY...IFR CIGS EARLY ON WILL GRADUALLY COME UP TO MVFR
LEVELS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO 3-5SM.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWER.
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND USHER IN A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES AND
WESTERLIES THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY ON LAKE ERIE...AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO. GALE WARNINGS ARE UP ON BOTH LAKES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWMELT
TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SNOWPACK WAS GREATLY REDUCED BY THE
LAST WARMUP. SOME RAIN WILL ALSO FALL WITH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RUNNING AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. SUCH LIGHT RAIN
AMOUNTS WOULD NORMALLY NOT BE AN ISSUE...BUT AFTER THE COLD WINTER
SOME AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS CONTINUE TO HAVE ICE COVER.
SOME ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE...AND THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
NEW ICE JAMS TO FORM AS ICE BEGINS TO MOVE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LOWER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW LEFT TO MELT MAY HELP MITIGATE FLOOD ISSUES TO SOME EXTENT.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH
FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME ICE JAM ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY IN
A FEW AREAS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ001-010-
019-085.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ040-041.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042-
062.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/RSH
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...JJR/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
349 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION...BUT THIS CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING MORE RAIN OR SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TONIGHT. THIS HAS BROUGHT A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION EXTENDS
ENE OF THE LOW...BUT THIS IS ONLY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION DUE
TO DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER JUST BEHIND THIS IS AN AREA OF STEADY RAIN LIFTING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEFT FRONT JET STREAK...AND SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z NAM BUFKIT
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS AREA
IS LARGELY CAPTURED BY THE 12Z NAM/RGEM AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WITH IT
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE LIFT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT IT WILL BRING A ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
STARTING OFF AS SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION. A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT
QPF BOTH AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...THE STEADIEST SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ITSELF...RATHER THAN AHEAD OF IT. BECAUSE OF THIS...THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND THE FRONT.
THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PICK UP. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE...MAINLY DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THIS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...AND INTO THURSDAY IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
WINDY LOCATIONS INLAND. BASED ON THIS...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE WILL BE WINDY ON THURSDAY TOO...BUT
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT ONLY MARGINAL MIXING WITH WINDS
ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP GUSTS DOWN JUST A BIT.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SNOW WILL BE
STEADIER WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM UPSLOPING EAST OF THE LAKES.
FEEL MODEL QPF IS A BIT OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY INLAND AND ON THE
LAKES...BUT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD GET AN INCH
OR SO ON THURSDAY...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE IN JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC TO THE
GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. DEEP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE EVENING....WITH A FEW MORE
WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
PROVIDING SOME WEAK ASCENT. THE PRIMARY FORCING THROUGH THE EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPSLOPE FLOW...WHICH WILL FOCUS ON THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ESPECIALLY THE TUG HILL AND
WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. BY EARLY
EVENING THE COLUMN WILL HAVE COOLED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR
PRECIP TYPE...EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
EXPECT THIS TO BE FAIRLY ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING...THEN SLOWLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF
BUFFALO MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE EVENING.
THE TUG HILL REGION MAY SEE A SOLID 3-4 INCHES AS WELL IF UPSLOPE
PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH. OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS...THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION MAY SEE AN INCH OR SO...WITH JUST A LIGHT
COATING ELSEWHERE. BLACK ICE WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EVENING
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AROUND
SUNSET. THIS MAY ALLOW WATER FROM MELTING WET SNOW TO FREEZE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY
WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SCOURED AWAY. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN NY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 IN MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE TRICKY AS WARM AIR ADVANCES INTO THE AREA WITH A
PERIOD OF WET SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY RAIN.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS WELL...BUT WITH
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN EXACT THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS TIME RANGE
WILL JUST GO WITH RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW.
THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY
MORNING. A DRY SLOT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK BEFORE SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PEAK IN THE MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION FORCING A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING NOTABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BEHIND THE SATURDAY SYSTEM A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH THE
START OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS OR LOWER TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THESE NUMBERS ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OF COLD AIR WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS
APPEARS LIGHT GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TOWARDS OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY...AS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. LATEST 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAN YESTERDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP.
LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER AHEAD...THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE PATTERN RELAXING BY DAY 9-10 AS WE HEAD INTO THE LAST
WEEKEND OF MARCH. A MORE ZONAL FLOW MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED AT LEAST
FOR A TIME...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A WARMING TREND IN THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SEEMS TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JHW WHERE CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR. FOR THE
MOST PART...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR/VFR AT
BUF/ROC/IAG/ART AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. DOWNSLOPING WILL
OFFSET THE INCREASING MOISTURE AT THESE LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AT JHW
WHERE A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OFTEN RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CIGS. THERE WILL BE MODEST WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT
IT LOOKS TO FALL JUST SHY OF LLWS CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST STATIONS SHOULD LOWER TO
IFR...OR CLOSE TO IT...BEHIND THIS FRONT. THERE ALSO WILL BE GUSTY
SW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWER.
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
TONIGHT AND USHER IN A PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES AND
WESTERLIES THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY ON LAKE ERIE...AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO. GALE WARNINGS ARE UP ON BOTH LAKES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWMELT
TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SNOWPACK WAS GREATLY REDUCED BY THE
LAST WARMUP. SOME RAIN WILL ALSO FALL WITH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RUNNING AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. SUCH LIGHT RAIN
AMOUNTS WOULD NORMALLY NOT BE AN ISSUE...BUT AFTER THE COLD WINTER
SOME AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS CONTINUE TO HAVE ICE COVER.
SOME ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE...AND THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
NEW ICE JAMS TO FORM AS ICE BEGINS TO MOVE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LOWER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW LEFT TO MELT MAY HELP MITIGATE FLOOD ISSUES TO SOME EXTENT.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH
FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME ICE JAM ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY IN
A FEW AREAS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ001-010-
019-085.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LEZ040-041.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042-
062.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LOZ042>044.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...JJR/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
336 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
MAIN CHALLENGES CONCERN PRECIP TIMING/LOCATION/AMOUNTS/PHASE
AND ASSOCIATED HEADLINES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE. WILL USE A BLENDED 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH HAS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE GEM. THE
NAM SFC LOW TRACK/QPF PLACEMENT IS FARTHER NORTH AND WILL NOT
USE AT THIS TIME.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...SPOTTY INSTABILITY
INDUCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED DEPARTING SHORT-WAVE ALOFT
WILL DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 03 UTC. ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT COULD MAKE AREA ROADWAYS SLICK.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOVE FREEZING MELTING SNOW...THINK THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PROMOTE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE GRIDS FROM 06 TO 15
UTC ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WINTER STORM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GFS/ECMWF SFC LOW TRACK IS FROM NORTHERN MT AT 12 UTC THURSDAY TO
THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. BEST
PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE 850 HPA LOW TRACK AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...
BUT WILL EXTEND LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST CWA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NEAR SFC LAYER WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING...SO MOST
PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN. MAY EVEN BE A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ND. WILL NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 06
UTC AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. WITH PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCHES
AND STRONG MID- LEVEL FORCING...MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE 850 HPA LOW TRACK WHICH
MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THINK A
SOLID 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMONPLACE...BUT IF STRONG BANDING
DEVELOPS... THERE COULD BE A NARROW RIBBON THAT EXCEEDS 6 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...GFS/ECMWF 925 HPA
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS BY 18 UTC
FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE FALLING SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED BY THEN...BUT
DEPENDING ON ITS WETNESS THERE COULD BE CONSIDERABLE REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. GIVEN THE SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL AND STRONGER WINDS ON
FRIDAY...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM 18 UTC THURSDAY UNTIL 00 UTC SATURDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL FALL RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. SATURDAY
WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY...BUT DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWNRIGHT COLD
FOR LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DEPICTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A COLD FRONT MONDAY OR TUESDAY LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
CEILING HEIGHTS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THESE
CIGS AGAIN LOWERING TO MVFR CATEGORY TONIGHT...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS
VFR. CONFIDENCE FOR TONIGHT INTO THUR MORNING CONCERNING CEILINGS IS
LOW...AND WILL GO WITH WHAT WE HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE IN (VFR).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022-023.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
109 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. CONTINUE TO EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG...NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BASED UPON
THE 17 UTC RAP AND 14 UTC HRRR WITH SURFACE DESTABILIZATION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
ADDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG...NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AS THE 11
UTC HRRR AND 00 UTC 4KM WRF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS
DEPICT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH 100-150 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FOG TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY BASED UPON WEBCAM OBSERVATIONS FROM 13-14 UTC. POPS
ALSO ADJUSTED FOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
UPDATE FOR TIMING AND INCREASING THE AREAL EXTENT OF SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS HAD INCREASED IN INTENSITY
WITH TIME THE PAST FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN HOURLY
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST REFLECTIVITIES AND THE
LATEST 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE ON TIMING HAS BEEN NEARLY SPOT
ON...HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT SHOWERS TO STAY ISOLATED TONIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AROUND A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES QUICK BURSTS OF
SNOW COULD LAY DOWN UP TO AN INCH IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
THE TREND FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAINS ON TRACK.
ON THURSDAY A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN MONTANA AT DAYBREAK MOVES
INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IMPULSE WILL INDUCE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY OVER MONTANA AND
INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE
TO 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE COLD ADVECTION BEGINS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING...AND CONTINUE AS SNOW LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN EARNEST FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY REACH ONLY INTO THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO MID/UPPER
30S SOUTH. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW MAY BEGIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH...BUT COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. MUCH BELOW
AVERAGE LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXPECTED - WITH LOWS FROM AROUND
ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER TEENS FAR SOUTH.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING LATE THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD CANADIAN ARCTIC HIGH MOVES SOUTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE FOLLOWING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
CLIPPER...AND HIGHS SATURDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE 20S WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. LOWS OF ZERO TO 5 BELOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER
TEENS SOUTH AND WEST.
A SLOW RECOVERY BEGINS SUNDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
AND BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ON MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 20S
AND 30S EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS
OF A BIT OF A RECOVERY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S
AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
KJMS WILL SOON BECOME VFR AS SNOW EXITS THE TERMINAL AREA.
OTHERWISE....VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY IMPACT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS PRIOR TO SUNSET.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO BARNES/RANSOM/SARGENT COUNTIES.
SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MOST RECENT OBS HAVE REPORTED
LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH WARMING NEAR SFC LAYER...REMAINING PRECIP
SHOULD CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL STILL BE MINIMAL. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX/SKY
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 CDT WED MAR 19 2014
15 UTC RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP FROM CARRINGTON
TO MOBRIDGE SD IN CONNECTION WITH WEAK A SHORT-WAVE PROPAGATING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND. REPORTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LIGHT
SNOW...BUT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING...PRECIP
SHOULD SLOWLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED
POPS/P-TYPE FOCUSING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL. WESTERN MN REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH
CLOUD COVER AND WITH LATEST RAP LOW-LEVEL RH SUGGESTING SLOW
CLEARING...RAISED SKY COVER THROUGH 00 UTC. TEMPERATURES TODAY
MAINLY A REFLECTION OF CLOUD COVER...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE EAST AND INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
NO FORECAST CHANGES NECESSARY THIS UPDATE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND LATE WORK WEEK
SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN LOW TRACK AND
QPF AMOUNTS/LOCATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. WILL USE BLEND FOR CURRENT FORECAST.
FOR TODAY WEAK SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE ACROSS W ND AND WEAKEN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY. WILL BE MONITORING A SMALL AREA OF -SN
OVER NW ND AS IT PROPAGATES SE. MAINTAINED ISOLD RW/SW MENTION
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND WILL HINGE
ON CLOUD COVER. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WE WILL LOSE CLOUDS SO STAYED
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
RESPECTABLE Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE/IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE THIS EVENING SO
COULD SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH BUILDS IN.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND WEAK RETURN FLOW HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
FA.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN MIXING AHEAD
OF NEXT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE THURSDAY. SOME PCPN LIKELY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
MODELS DIFFER SOME ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AS IT PROPAGATES WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE A
BEARING ON WHERE BEST PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE. GENERAL CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT THAT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FA WILL SE
BEST CHANCES AND INCREASED POPS THIS AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO MAINLY SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SOME RESPECTABLE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
AS LOW PASSES EAST FRIDAY WILL SEE SHARP COLD ADVECTION...WINDY
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE -SN AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FA.
BASED ON EXPECTED WIND COULD SEE SOME BLSN FRIDAY AND THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL END FRIDAY EVENING. COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES HOWEVER MIXING SHOULD HOLD MINIMUMS ABOVE ZERO.
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. BY DAY 6 THE ECMWF IS FASTER THEN THE GFS. THE TWO MODELS
ARE ESSENTIALLY OUT OF PHASE BY DAY 7. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.
WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS LOWER ONE DEGREE IN
THE NORTH ON SUN AND RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
CEILING HEIGHTS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THESE
CIGS AGAIN LOWERING TO MVFR CATEGORY TONIGHT...BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS
VFR. CONFIDENCE FOR TONIGHT INTO THUR MORNING CONCERNING CEILINGS IS
LOW...AND WILL GO WITH WHAT WE HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE IN (VFR).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
445 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, as sfc winds veer to
the south.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Current visible satellite imagery shows some high clouds over
southwest and southern portions of the CWA. Surface observations
still continue to show some of the lingering dust at Presidio
associated with a cold front that moved into the area yesterday
evening and overnight.
With surface high pressure having built into the area behind the
cold front...the area is currently experiencing north to northeast
prevailing surface flow. The HRRR and other models suggest that
this surface high pressure ridge will begin to slide east later this
afternoon. This should result in surface winds transitioning to
east to southeast across a good portion of the area by tonight.
With the ridge over the area for a good portion of the day
today...high temperatures will likely remain slightly cooler than
normal.
With zonal upper flow expected on Thursday and Friday... associated
surface trough development is expected on the lee side of the
Rockies. This will allow for south to southwest surface flow on
Thursday and downslope west winds Friday. The end result of these
dry warm winds will be a notable warming trend through Friday. 850
mb temperatures on the NAM support temperatures in the mid 80s on
Friday for most of the Permian Basin...with temperatures potentially
in the lower 90s for portions of the Trans Pecos Region. GFS
temperatures are progged to be slightly cooler than the NAM. For
now...will trend towards our current forecast...a hint cooler than
the latest NAM and ECMWF guidance.
A cold front will make its way into the area late Friday and
overnight early Saturday. The front will continue to build into the
area into Sunday...with last night`s European model run and this
mornings GFS being in decent agreement with regards to potential
rain chances over the southeast portions of our CWA on Sunday.
These rain chances are currently indicated in our current forecast
package and will be maintained.
FIRE WEATHER...
West winds on Friday will help develop a dryline over the eastern
Permian Basin during the late morning. This dryline will continue
to slide east of the area during the afternoon. Afternoon relative
humidity values of 7 to 11 percent are expected across much of our
area west of that dryline. 20 foot winds speeds could reach
critical thresholds for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the
Marfa Plateau. I would expect later shifts to be issuing a Fire
Weather Watch and eventually Red Flag warnings for these locations
if current trends persist. There is still some uncertainly on how
strong winds will be across the adjacent plains on Friday. The NAM
guidance is indicating slightly stronger winds than the GFS. At
this point it is a difficult determination as to which model is more
reasonable. If the NAM is correct...we could see critical fire
weather conditions over portions of Eddy and Lea County as well.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
249 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Current visible satellite imagery shows some high clouds over
southwest and southern portions of the CWA. Surface observations
still continue to show some of the lingering dust at Presidio
associated with a cold front that moved into the area yesterday
evening and overnight.
With surface high pressure having built into the area behind the
cold front...the area is currently experiencing north to northeast
prevailing surface flow. The HRRR and other models suggest that
this surface high pressure ridge will begin to slide east later this
afternoon. This should result in surface winds transitioning to
east to southeast across a good portion of the area by tonight.
With the ridge over the area for a good portion of the day
today...high temperatures will likely remain slightly cooler than
normal.
With zonal upper flow expected on Thursday and Friday... associated
surface trough development is expected on the lee side of the
Rockies. This will allow for south to southwest surface flow on
Thursday and downslope west winds Friday. The end result of these
dry warm winds will be a notable warming trend through Friday. 850
mb temperatures on the NAM support temperatures in the mid 80s on
Friday for most of the Permian Basin...with temperatures potentially
in the lower 90s for portions of the Trans Pecos Region. GFS
temperatures are progged to be slightly cooler than the NAM. For
now...will trend towards our current forecast...a hint cooler than
the latest NAM and ECMWF guidance.
A cold front will make its way into the area late Friday and
overnight early Saturday. The front will continue to build into the
area into Sunday...with last night`s European model run and this
mornings GFS being in decent agreement with regards to potential
rain chances over the southeast portions of our CWA on Sunday.
These rain chances are currently indicated in our current forecast
package and will be maintained.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
West winds on Friday will help develop a dryline over the eastern
Permian Basin during the late morning. This dryline will continue
to slide east of the area during the afternoon. Afternoon relative
humidity values of 7 to 11 percent are expected across much of our
area west of that dryline. 20 foot winds speeds could reach
critical thresholds for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the
Marfa Plateau. I would expect later shifts to be issuing a Fire
Weather Watch and eventually Red Flag warnings for these locations
if current trends persist. There is still some uncertainly on how
strong winds will be across the adjacent plains on Friday. The NAM
guidance is indicating slightly stronger winds than the GFS. At
this point it is a difficult determination as to which model is more
reasonable. If the NAM is correct...we could see critical fire
weather conditions over portions of Eddy and Lea County as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 39 77 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 40 78 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 37 82 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 45 78 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 45 80 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 44 72 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 36 78 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 28 72 37 82 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 38 77 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 41 77 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 37 80 50 91 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
339 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SAT IMAGES SHOWED CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SCATTERING ACROSS THE MIDDLE...WHILE THICK CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. CLEARING AND SCATTERING
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE ON HOW SUNSHINE HAS ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB IN THE MID 60S IN THE WEST. CURRENT REGIONAL
RADARS ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OHIO.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE REACHING THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA AROUND 00Z/8PM THEN CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. PLAYED QPF CLOSE TO
HPCQPF. HOWEVER..CLOUDS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT BEFORE WESTERLY FLOW WITH FROPA SCOURS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT IN THE PIEDMONT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM
AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL
END QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
GULF COAST. THE WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE FRI-SAT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. KEEPING
THINGS MAINLY DRY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO NRN VA FRIDAY...SO A FEW
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE SHENANDOAH VLY. BIG THEME THIS PERIOD WILL
BE THE WARM TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S FRI...WARMING TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY. SATURDAYS FRONT COMES
THROUGH MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE MTNS. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST BY DIVERGE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THEY HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN.
TREND FROM BOTH STILL FAVORS A SHOT OF WINTRY WX PERHAPS NEXT
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE WITH SRN LOW FORMING ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SHIFTING OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SUPRESSING THIS WITH NRN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD NOSING INTO SRN
VA...WITH BULK OF MOISTURE STAYING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE NEXT TUESDAY.
PRIOR TO THIS...WILL SEE ONE FRONT EXITED BY SATURDAY
EVENING...STALLING OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOME DIFFERENCE IN
GFS/ECMWF AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST STATES...PULLING MOISTURE BACK
NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SRN CWA POSSIBLE...WHILE
AN NRN STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NRN CWA. THIS WAVE RETURNS THE COLDER
THAN NORMAL AIR INTO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES BY MONDAY.
SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. INTERACTION BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAM AND DEVELOPMENT
OF SRN STREAM LOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR TUESDAYS EVENING. LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET DRY AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT STAYING CHILLY FOR LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WEST TO NEAR 50 EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE OVER THE REGION IS SLOWING SCOURING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LYH WILL BE THE LAST TAF
LOCATION TO GET OUT OF THE WEDGE THIS EVENING. WSR-88D SHOWED
THAT ONLY SPOTTY DRIZZLE REMAIN IN THE EAST. HRRR HINTS AT SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE FAR
EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE WEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AT LWB AND BLF. IN THE EAST...IT IS HARD
TO TELL IF WITH MOIST/DAMP SOIL CONDITIONS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS. HIGH TO MEDIUM IN
VISIBILITY AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
144 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY ERODE TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RISING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S THIS MORNING. BECAUSE
TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED. HOWEVER...AREAS OF
FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION. MORE OFTEN THAT NOT...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL
SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE TOO QUICKLY. THINNING OF THE
CLOUDS AND BREAKING OF THE WEDGE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON THIS
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
40 TO THE MID 50S WITH MORE SUNSHINE. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY AND IN BATH AND
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES WERE THE ONLY LOCATIONS AT 4AM THAT WERE AROUND
FREEZING. WILL BE CANCELING SOME COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE
EARLY MORNING.
MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. FAR WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA WAS ALREADY ALONG THE EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT
EASTERN COUNTIES TO BE CLOUDY MUCH OF THE DAY.BUFKTI SOUNDINGS HAVE
LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE NOT GETTING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL
AFTER 3PM. OF COURSE LOCATIONS WITH MORE SUN TODAY WILL HAVE THE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CONTINUING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AT THE SURFACE THE LOW WAS
IN EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE JUST REACHING THE EXTREME
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AROUND 00Z/8PM THEN CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL
END QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
GULF COAST REGION. THE WESTERLY WINDFLOW AROUND THE HIGH...COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WILL MAKE FOR
TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
MARCH...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE APPALACHIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOW 30S WITH A FEW
UPPER 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY...PASSING
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOWING WINDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TO SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS STILL HINTING
AT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE MORNING...WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RISING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
HELP KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER AS WELL...WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S IN THE FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES THAT
WILL DRY UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW AS THEY CROSS
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SUNDAY...THE FLOW TURNS SHARPER ALOFT TOWARD A TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEAVING JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN WRN GREENBRIER.
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL.
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS VARY WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A
SHARPER FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WITH THE UPPER VORT AND COLD AIR SURGING
INTO THE EAST...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF LAGS IT BY 12 HOURS. THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE SRN STREAM ENERGY TRYING TO BUCKLE BACK NORTH NEXT
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A NORTHERN
STREAM DOMINATED FLOW...SO OVERALL THE SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS
COLD WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY OFFSHORE LOW
STAYS NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WRAP-AROUND ON BACKSIDE OF SFC
LOW LATER TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE OVER THE REGION IS SLOWING SCOURING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LYH WILL BE THE LAST TAF
LOCATION TO GET OUT OF THE WEDGE THIS EVENING. WSR-88D SHOWED
THAT ONLY SPOTTY DRIZZLE REMAIN IN THE EAST. HRRR HINTS AT SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE FAR
EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE WEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AT LWB AND BLF. IN THE EAST...IT IS HARD
TO TELL IF WITH MOIST/DAMP SOIL CONDITIONS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS. HIGH TO MEDIUM IN
VISIBILITY AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
535 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
AT 3 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW IN ABERDEEN/S FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF
TODAY. THE 19.12Z MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BETWEEN 20.04Z AND 21.09Z. AS A RESULT...ADDED
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT...AND SOME
FLURRIES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
ON THURSDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 4C DURING THE DAY. THIS IS WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS A BIT SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...SO COOLED
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AROUND 300K OR 500 MB...ONLY EXPECT SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND IN WESTERN WISCONSIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 2C TO 4C ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR /NORTH AND EAST OF THE WARM FRONT/ THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES DRAMATICALLY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST IF THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH THAT THERE
COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING
RAIN PRIOR TO CHANGING TO MAINLY RAIN.
FOR THE WEEKEND...COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE -4
TO -8C RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL
INTO THE -12 TO -16C RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COOL DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
NORMALLY... HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S.
FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE 19.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHIFT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN THE GFS HAVE COOLED MUCH CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF. AS A RESULT...ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WITH THE BEST FORCING SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA...ONLY EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER IF THE
SOUTHWEST TREND CONTINUES...WE MAY NOT EVEN SEE THIS MUCH
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2014
DIFFICULT CIG/VSBY FORECAST TONIGHT AS NAM12/RAP13 POINT TO AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SATURATION TONIGHT VIA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT
COULD RESULT IN SOME IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. MELTING SNOW OVER
SOUTHWEST MN IS PLAYING A PART IN AN INCREASE IN SFC MOISTURE. THAT
SAID...THE RAP SFC TDS SUGGEST THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...IN A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE POST THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CURRENT CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS KRST/KLSE
IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST...AND SHOULD CLEAR KRST/KLSE BEFORE
06Z. MEANWHILE...SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS APPEAR DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PERTURBATION A LOFT. SOME RADAR
RETURNS WITH THE CLOUDS...AND SOME OBS SUPPORTING PCPN AT THE SFC.
MODELS AREN/T TOO EXCITED ABOUT HOLDING THIS AREA TOGETHER...AT
LEAST TO A POINT WHERE KRST/KLSE WOULD BE IMPACTED.
SO THE QUESTION SWINGS BACK TO WHETHER LOW STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IF IT DOES NOT. NAM/RAP
SOUNDINGS LEANING TOWARD FOG MORE THAN STRATUS...AND THINK THIS IS A
BETTER WAY TO GO. WILL HOLD ONTO TO SOME LOW CIGS AT KRST FOR
NOW...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE YET. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MORE EVIDENT TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK