Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/17/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1049 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014
.UPDATE...
HI RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN HOTTER WITH PRECIP...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND S
MTNS. HRRR HAS 5-10" OF SNOW OVER THE WETS/N FACE SPANISH
PEAKS/CENTRAL SANGRES AND PARTS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THESE
AMOUNTS LOOK HIGH...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTIVE BURSTS. PLEASE SEE NDFD PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.
/HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT TAF SITES TODAY AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME SNOW BURST AT KCOS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THAT COULD REDUCE VIS OF IFR FOR BRIEF
PERIODS. IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATES...IT WILL BE ON GRASSY AREAS AS
RUNWAYS QUITE WARM. HOWEVER...SNOW BURST COULD BE QUITE INTENSE
FOR BRIEF PDS OF TIME.
WX SYSTEM SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY EARLY EVENING ALL AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
UPDATE...
PER DISCUSSIONS WITH NWS BOU AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...HAVE
UPPED POPS ON PALMER DVD AS INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP WITH SNOW
PRODUCTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE DVD. COULD SEE AN INCH OR
TWO (OR MORE) OF SNOW ON MAINLY GRASSY AREAS. /HODANISH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
AN UPR LEVEL TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS THE STATE TODAY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WL TURN NORTHERLY IN MOST AREAS THIS
MORNING...AND WL BECOMING QUITE WINDY OVR MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS
TODAY. THESE STRONG WINDS WL PROBABLY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST OVR THE PLAINS...BUT AT THIS TIME AM THINKING THE VSBY IN
BLOWING DUST WL NOT BE LOWER THAN A MILE OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA...SO
WL NOT ISSUE A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY...WL JUST MENTION BLOWING DUST
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SOME PCPN TO MOVE
INTO THE CONTDVD...MAINLY THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS MORNING...THEN
SPREADING TO THE ERN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ISOLD CHANCES
FOR PCPN IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND MAYBE OVR THE PALMER DVD...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN PLAINS WL BE DRY TODAY. SHOULD SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OVR THE MTS TODAY. TEMPS TODAY ARE A
BIT CHALLENGING...BUT WL GENERALLY KEEP HIGHS ON THE LOW SIDE OF
GUIDANCE OR EVEN A LITTLE COOLER.
THIS EVENING PCPN CHANCES WL GENERALLY DECREASE...BUT THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE PIKES PEAK...TELLER
COUNTY AND PALMER DVD AREAS...AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTS OF PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT
FOR NOW WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TO MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THE
NAM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS TONIGHT OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ACROSS THE DESERT SW FOR SUN AND MON...PRODUCING DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA. LOOK FOR TEMPS AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS ON
SUN...THEN WELL INTO THE 70S ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM HELP TO BOOST TEMPS DRAMATICALLY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL POTENTIALLY BE AN ISSUE FOR MON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS DOWN ACROSS MT
AND WY ON MON...PRODUCING SOME PCPN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS BY LATE
MON AFTN. THE BRUNT OF THE PCPN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR LATE MON NIGHT
AND EARLY TUE MORN...THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT
AND EFFECT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GFS AND NAM MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE
FURTHER NORTH...WITH MUCH LESS PCPN COVERAGE FOR THE CWA. THE EC
DIGS SOUTH...PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN FOR THE AREA.
ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS...BUT KEPT ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
DAY TUE. EXPECT A 20 DEG DROP IN TEMPS FOR TUE...WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PREDOMINATE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS COLORADO
THROUGH FRI...WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS ON WED WILL WARM INTO THE MID 60S BY FRI.
MOORE
AVIATION...UPDATED...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS AT KCOS AND
KPUB...AND AROUND 30 KTS AT KALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KCOS AND KPUB TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
AREAS OF BLDU RESTRICITING VSBYS AT TIMES ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS.
KALS WILL HAVE SOME DENSE FOG THRU ABOUT MIDMORNING...OTRW VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS
IN THE VCNTY OF KALS THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF BAND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND MILD AFTERNOON. DRY...BUT
VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
MONDAY TO SPARE THE REGION A WINTER STORM. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* BLUSTERY W/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE
* STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
* MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTICALLY...A SERIES OF WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
INVOKE SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PRESENTLY APPROACHING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWEEPING BOUNDARIES BEHIND WHICH
COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR STEEPENING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SEE SPC MESOANALYSIS/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
POTENTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO H7 ALONG WITH SOME MINOR
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL PROFILE. AIR NEEDS TO SINK
SOMEWHERE...SO EXPECTING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AS ALREADY
DISCERNED PER LATEST SATELLITE /BROKEN CLOUD DECKS/.
ONE THING IS FOR CERTAIN...WITH ANTICIPATED BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMING UP TO AROUND 50 DEGREES /H85 TEMPS AROUND -3C/ EXPECT THE
EASY MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. W/SW WIND GUSTS
OF 30-35 MPH ANTICIPATED MIDDAY INTO EVENING...NEARLY 40 MPH ALONG
HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES AS
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER SEEMINGLY MAX OUT AROUND 40
MPH /LOOKING DOWNSTREAM AT VWPS OUT OF ALBANY AND POINTS EAST...
THE WESTERLY FLOW IS AROUND 35 MPH AT H9-7/.
SOME UNCERTAINTY...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. AVERAGE PWATS ARE AROUND
0.4 INCHES. LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO REMAIN OPEN FOR BUSINESS.
SOME CONCERN WITH DOWNSLOPING OFF THE BERKSHIRES AND WHETHER THAT
WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES TO THE EAST. SO LOOKING AT THE HRRR AND
PRESENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL KEEP WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY MAINLY N/W OF THE REGION CLOSER TO
READILY AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE SOURCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING MUCH
COLDER AIR TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPS WILL BE BACK
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN...TO MAINLY THE 20S ELSEWHERE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. WEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS BY DAYBREAK.
SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN -14C AND -18C
BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS TO BETWEEN 25
AND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN....TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE ITS THE MIDDLE OF WINTER ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
15.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE NOW STARTING TO HAVE REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING FINAL STORM TRACK OF LOW PRES SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL HAVE MOVED TOO FAR S ON SUN...COMBINED
WITH POSITIVE NAO/AO SUGGESTING PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. THEREFORE IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK TOO FAR S WITH
TOO MUCH DRY AIR TO THE N TO HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THIS GENERAL AGREEMENT...A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
WILL BE USED FOR THE MID TERM.
FOLLOWING THIS LOW PRES...MODEST WRN CONUS RIDGE LOOKS SHUNT
POLAR VORTEX A BIT FURTHER N. LEADING TO REASONABLY PROGRESSIVE
SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. SYNOPTICALLY...THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT HERE...SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF MODERATING
TEMPERATURES UNTIL SECONDARY NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES /IN
THE FORM OF AN INSIDE RUNNER AT THE SFC/. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS IN
HOW AMPLIFIED THE FLOW PATTERN IS BY THAT POINT...WHICH WILL
AFFECT TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT MAKES IT/S PASS. ECMWF IS
MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WHILE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND FASTER.
ENSEMBLES FROM EITHER FAMILY SUPPORT BOTH SOLUTIONS HERE...SO WILL
LEAN ON AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN FOR THU AND FRI
UNTIL PATTERN IS BETTER NAILED DOWN.
DETAILS...
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
SFC HIGH PRES APPROACHING 1030 HPA WILL BE GRADUALLY SETTLING
ACROSS THE NE CONUS...CARRYING DRY/COLD AIRMASS WITH IT. THIS
STRONG RIDGING NOW LOOKS TO SHUNT LOW PRES OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 18Z
MON. GIVEN THE DRY AIR...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY TIGHT
GRADIENT OF FINAL PRECIP...BUT BULK WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
CURRENTLY ONLY 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z CMC BRING AND SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS BRING 0.01-0.05 OF QPF TO ACK/MVY...BUT NOT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THEIR SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THIS...WILL CONTINUE DOWNWARD
TREND IN POPS. OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS AROUND -10C TO -14C SUGGEST
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
NW WHERE SOME RADIATION IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF CLOUD COVER TO
TEENS AND 20S NEAR SE MA/RI. HIGHS MON REBOUND LITTLE...ONLY LOW
TO UPPER 20S.
TUE INTO WED...
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL CREST ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE BY THE DAY WED. THEREFORE...DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED TUE OF THE TWO DAYS...AS H85 TEMPS
LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND -8C...YIELDING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM ON TUE NIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP LOOKS APPARENT. BY WED THOUGH...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH IT APPEARS TEMPS MAY FINAL HAVE A RUN AT
SEASONAL NORMALS.
THU INTO FRI...
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW LOW PRES TO DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY
SLIDE INVOF THE ST. LAWRENCE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH AND TIMING. SOME GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY
GFS/CMC...SUGGEST SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT S OF LONG ISLAND
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY DRAG MORE COLD AIR INTO THE SYSTEM WHICH
MAY PROMOTE A CHANGE-OVER. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT...FOR AN UNSETTLED AND WET PERIOD. WILL
BLEND IN A LITTLE OF THE POTENTIAL COLDER SOLUTION...BUT THE ECMWF
/WARMER/ SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. THEREFORE MORE WEIGHT
WILL BE GIVEN TO IT. IN EITHER CASE...THE NRN STREAM WAVE DOES
APPEAR TO TAP SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SO SOME HEAVIER PRECIP IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
NEXT WEEKEND...
LOW CONFIDENCE HERE...BUT IT APPEARS GIVEN THE JOINING OF SRN AND
NRN STREAM FLOW THAT ANOTHER FAST MOVING NRN STREAM WAVE MAY
EFFECT THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...EVEN IN -SHRA WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY ABOUT 15Z.
SOME HIT OR MISS -SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR...BUT VFR SHOULD STILL DOMINATE. MAIN
STORY OTHERWISE IS WINDS...SW WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A W DIRECTION
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT EXPECTED.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 15Z...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 15Z...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AS IT APPEARS COASTAL STORM STAYS TOO FAR SOUTHEAST TO
AFFECT SRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. NW WINDS SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT AND
SHIFT TO THE N BY MONDAY
TUE INTO WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. N WINDS ON TUE SHIFT TO THE SW ON WED.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SCA HEADLINES POSTED FOR ALL WATERS RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30
KNOTS TODAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUN MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALE HEADLINES.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NW WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT CONTINUE SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON MORNING...BUT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY MON
SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY END THROUGH THE DAY.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE COASTAL STORM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
SE ON MON.
TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
921 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY OUT TO SEA ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
BRINGING FIRST A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND THEN ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE. LOWEST CONFIDENCE ARE
WITH THE ADVISORY HEADLINES ALONG I95. THE MODEL FCST DEW POINTS
ARE WORKING OK WHERE ITS SNOWING, BUT THEY ARE TOO HIGH JUST NORTH
OF THIS AREA. THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUC RUNS ARE SHOWING THIS AS SNOW
TRIES TO MOVE NORTH AND DISSIPATES. THERE IS A PUSH LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD TAKE THE SNOW INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE, SO
EVEN IF OUR VALUES ARE TOO HIGH, AN IMPACT ADVISORY FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE KEPT FOR NOW.
IN LINE WITH THIS THE .01 ISOHYET HAS BEEN TOO FAR NORTH ON ALL OF
THE MODELS, BUT THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE 500MB FCST VALID AT 00Z
WAS SHOWING HIGHER THAN FORECAST HEIGHTS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA.
NOT EXACTLY A CLEAR PICTURE.
IN OUR WARNING AREA, SNOW HAS ALREADY STARTED TO FALL AND PCPN IS
STACKED ALL THE WAY BACK TO KY. THESE LOCALES REMAIN IN THE PRIME
SNOW GROWTH AND FCST OMEGA AREAS (KDOV, KMIV AND KACY SOUNDINGS) AS
WELL AS A REGION OF FGEN FORCING. THE FSU DISPLAY OF FCST NAM FGEN
HAVE BEEN GOLDEN THIS WINTER AND THEY ARE KEYING ON SUSSEX DE AND
CAPE MAY NJ WITH THE STGST FGEN BANDING OVERNIGHT. BEING A COUNTY
OFF IS STILL LIKELY, SO WE DID NOT KEEP THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL JUST
IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
WE TIGHTENED THE SNOWFALL GRADIENT ON THE 630 UPDATE AND KEPT THE
930 UPDATE ABOUT THE SAME. NO OTHER BIG CHANGES WERE MADE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SE STATES. A
SECOND LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT (OFF THE E COAT) TONIGHT AND
MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE. TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE (YOU
GUESSED IT) COME BACK TO A WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION,
SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY HAD A FEW DAYS AGO. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ADD A TIER OF COUNTIES NORTH/WEST TO THE (PREVIOUS) ADVS
AND WARNINGS. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES HIGHER WITH THE
GREATEST TOTALS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. THE
STORM WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON THE MORNING RUSH FOR THE METRO
AREAS...SO PLAN ON PLENTY OF EXTRA TRAVEL TIME MONDAY MORNING. THE
SNOW WILL START AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING OVER THE DELMARVA AND
ARRIVE A FEW HOURS LATER ACROSS SRN NJ AND SE PA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
WILL FALL OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ. SUB-ADV AMOUNTS (1-2
INCHES) WILL FALL ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS COUNTY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OR NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING AT
TIMES TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY LOW/MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE STEADY SNOWS WILL END FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY. THE ENDING
TIMES OF AROUND NOON FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WSW FLAGS STILL LOOKS
GOOD. THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE OVER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA WHILE THE 12Z-18Z TOTALS OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ WILL BE
1-1.5 INCHES. (SO MOST OF THE STORM ACCUMS ARE BEFORE 12Z MON).
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME UPPER 20S FAR
NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE,
BRINGING COOL AND DRY WX. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST, BUT ATTM, ALL GUID (EXCEPT THE
NAM) KEEPS IT WELL OFF THE COAST.
BY TUE NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE UPR MS
VLY AND BRING A WMFNT THRU THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD TRIGGER
SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY ERLY WED. DEPENDING ON ONSET TIME, THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW OR A MIX FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W, BEFORE
A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN EVENT ON WED AS TEMPS RISE. THE CDFNT ASSOCD
WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. PRECIP CHCS WILL
INCREASE THRU THE DAY AHEAD OF FROPA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE SERN STATES AND KEEP THINGS
DRY FOR FRI BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AND WHILE IT
LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH N AND W
FOR SNOW OR A MIX FRI NIGHT INTO ERLY SAT.
A LARGE HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FOR SUN.
TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NRML THEN RISE TO NR OR A BIT ABV
SEASONAL VALUES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDD PD.
THE VERNAL EQUINOX IS THURSDAY AT 1257 PM. HOPEFULLY MOTHER NATURE
CAN TAKE THE HINT!
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE SNOWS HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ONLY LIGHT SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED AT KABE AND KRDG...WHILE HIGHER TOTALS AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE DEL VALLEY AND SRN NJ TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY N/NE AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH G20 AT TIMES.
MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS EARLY (MVFR N/W) WILL ALL IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR FROM NW/SE DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, KMIV AND KACY MAY REMAIN
MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NE AT 10
TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME GUSTS EARLY, BEFORE DROPPING BACK
UNDER 10 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE....VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES, AS FIRST A WARM
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN A COLD FRONT WED NIGHT. MDT
CONFIDENCE.
THU-FRI... MAINLY VFR. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOME LWR CIGS PSBL
ESPECIALLY N AND W LATE FRI. MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PLACEMENT AND TYPES OF MARINE FLAGS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...BUT
WE WILL MOVE UP THE TIMING FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE GALES/SCA TO
00Z. GALES EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING OVER THE OCEAN AND LOWER
DEL BAY. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER DEL BAY. GALES
SHOULD LAST AT LEAST UNTIL NOON MONDAY...BEFORE A TRANSITION BACK TO
SCA CONDITIONS. THE NE FETCH WILL CREATE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
SRN/CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS AND SRN DEL BAY...WITH THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS BEING SOMEWHAT SHELTERED.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
25 KNOTS EXCEPT THRU ERLY TUE. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS MAY REMAIN AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET THRU THE PD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
TIDAL DEPARTURES. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL
MOON ARE RATHER LOW AND TIDAL DEPARTURES OF GREATER THAN A FOOT
AND A HALF WOULD BE NEEDED FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO OCCUR.
BEING THAT THE LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, THE
LATEST EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING THAT ANY
TIDAL FLOODING WILL TAKE PLACE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MORE SNOWFALL RECORDS TO FALL AND/OR CLIMBING HIGHER IN THE
SNOWFALL RECORD DEPARTMENT. ACY HAS THE BEST CHANCES:
DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR:
3/16 3/17
ALLENTOWN 12.0 IN 1896 4.2 IN 1967
ATLANTIC CITY 1.7 IN 1978 1.6 IN 1965
PHILADELPHIA 4.1 IN 1978 3.5 IN 1892
WILMINGTON 2.9 IN 1978 2.4 IN 1965
IN PHILADELPHIA, WE HAVE HAD 13 SEPARATE CALENDAR DAYS IN WHICH
AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW HAS FALLEN THIS SEASON. WE HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE TO MAKE IT 15 CALENDAR DAYS WHICH WOULD GIVE THIS SEASON
SOLE POSSESSION OF SECOND PLACE. A MORE LIKELY 14 CALENDAR DAYS
WOULD TIE US WITH 1898-99 WHILE THE RECORD IS 17 CALENDAR DAYS IN THE
1917-18 SEASON.
SPEAKING OF SECOND PLACE, AN ADDITIONAL 2.7 INCHES WOULD GIVE
PHILADELPHIA (62.9 INCHES CURRENTLY) THE SECOND SNOWIEST SEASON ON
RECORD, SURPASSING THE 65.5 INCHES DURING THE 1995-6 SEASON. THE
ALL-TIME RECORD IS 78.7 INCHES IN 2009-10. IT APPEARS SAFE THROUGH
THIS EVENT. IF 6.6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW WERE TO FALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK, IT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME EVER THERE HAVE BEEN FOUR DOUBLE
DIGIT MONTHS OF SNOWFALL IN ONE SEASON IN PHILADELPHIA.
ATLANTIC CITY (33.7 INCHES CURRENTLY) NEEDS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW TO CRACK THE TOP 10 SNOWIEST SEASONS ON RECORD
AND 8.7 ADDITIONAL INCHES TO SUPPLANT 2002-3 AS THE 5TH SNOWIEST.
THE MOST RECENT SNOWIEST WINTER WAS 2010-11 (RANKED 8TH) AT 38.0
INCHES. NUMERO UNO IS THE WINTER OF 2009-10 AT 58.1 INCHES.
WILMINGTON (52.9 INCHES CURRENTLY) NEEDS 3.1 ADDITIONAL INCHES TO
SUPPLANT 1995-6 AS THE SECOND SNOWIEST SEASON ON RECORD. THE
RECORD IS 72.8 INCHES DURING THE 2009-10 SEASON.
ALLENTOWN SEASONAL SNOWFALL RANKS. WE MIGHT NOT MOVE UP.
75.4 INCHES IN 1993-4
71.4 INCHES IN 1995-6
67.2 INCHES IN 1966-7
66.9 INCHES IN 2013-4
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
101-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ016>018-
020>027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012>015-
019.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2014
...Update to aviation for 00Z TAFs...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
The main meteorological feature of interest was a mid level cyclone
centered across West Texas this afternoon. The RAP model analyzed
the mid level potential vorticity (PV) anomaly across West Texas
with greatest PV advection pushing into the Red River region of
TX-OK border. Numerous thunderstorms were ongoing in this region
down into North Central Texas. Closer to home, there was negligible
influence of the West Texas low on southwestern Kansas weather.
There were a few mid and high level clouds scattered about, but
sufficient insolation allowed temperatures to warm well into the mid
to upper 60s. A strong cold front continued to push south this
afternoon with the front reaching roughly a Guymon-Garden
City-Norton KS line as of 20Z. The strongest winds were over the
High Plains of eastern Colorado where blowing dust was being
reported, especially in the La Junta area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
Winds will be the main forecast challenge tonight and how to handle
with the wind advisory headline. Earlier in the day we extended the
advisory to start sooner, especially across the western and northern
counties. All the guidance, including RAP and NAM forecast
soundings, suggest a fairly prolonged period of 25 to 28 knots
sustained this evening through about 09Z. Thereafter, the focus of
the wind will shift into south-central Kansas with the gradient
relaxing roughly west of a Meade to Dodge City to Hays line toward
daybreak. As far as precipitation is concerned, we eliminated POPs
everywhere except south-central Kansas where we kept 20-30 POPs
across mainly Barber County in the low level frontogenetic zone. RAP
and HRRR have shown a persistent convective signal in this area with
several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE. Any convection which does affect
Barber County this evening will quickly move southeast into northern
Oklahoma, so the threat for anything substantial as far as a
prolonged strong or even severe threat is extremely minimal. Low
level cold advection will prevail tonight, but with the winds
keeping the boundary layer mixed, we really won`t see terribly low
temperatures for lows -- mainly in the 29-33F range for much of the
southwest Kansas region. The downslope component in the lower
troposphere will eliminate the cold advection, and with insolation
resuming we should see temperatures Sunday warm up into the upper
40s to near 50 in some locations.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge axis transitioning
southeastward across the Western High Plains Monday while an upper
level trough of low pressure tracks east-southeast across the
Pacific Northwest. Along with a fairly weak flow aloft, this will
result in dry conditions across western Kansas through Monday
night. The upper level trough will then push further southeast
into the Northern Plains Tuesday setting up precip chances from the
Dakotas southward into Nebraska and possibly Kansas. Although an
attendant cold front is projected to push through western Kansas
early Tuesday, the bulk of the upper level system will pass just to
our north. Along with drier air in the lower levels, little if any
rain is expected Tuesday...so a slight chance for rain seems
reasonable. Drier conditions are then expected to persist through
mid week as the flow aloft becomes more zonal.
Well above normal temperatures are expected Monday as lee side
troughing develops and strengthens across eastern Colorado. This
will set up a low level flow across western Kansas helping to draw
much warmer air into the area with H85 temperatures in the mid
Teens(C) across central Kansas to near 20C closer to the Colorado
border. Look for widespread highs up into the 70s(F) Monday
afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are likely Tuesday as a cold
front pushes through western Kansas early in the day. Colder air
will surges southward into the area with the H85 0C isotherm
reaching as far south as the I-70 corridor by late Tuesday
afternoon. Highs are only expected up into the 50s(F) across
west central Kansas to possibly the lower to mid 60s(F) in south
central Kansas. More seasonal temperatures are expected through
the end of the week as the flow aloft becomes more zonal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
TAF critical period short term concern is winds. The gradient wind will
increase in the wake of a fropa. Northerly wind vectors with magnitudes
around 30 kt expected this evening. The gradient wind will spread east
and decrease from west to east as well. By 12Z tomorrow morning, winds
should be N/NNE 20-25 kt, except farther east, where stronger winds
will last longer. Cigs should be mainly VFR, with MVFR stratus psbl
tmrw AM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 32 49 27 73 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 30 49 28 75 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 31 52 32 78 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 32 51 27 78 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 30 48 26 72 / 10 0 0 0
P28 35 49 24 73 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Sunday FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-061>063-074-075-084-085.
WIND ADVISORY until 1 PM CDT Sunday FOR KSZ064>066-076>081-
086>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2014
...Updated Synopsis and Short Term sections...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
The main meteorological feature of interest was a mid level cyclone
centered across West Texas this afternoon. The RAP model analyzed
the mid level potential vorticity (PV) anomaly across West Texas
with greatest PV advection pushing into the Red River region of
TX-OK border. Numerous thunderstorms were ongoing in this region
down into North Central Texas. Closer to home, there was negligible
influence of the West Texas low on southwestern Kansas weather.
There were a few mid and high level clouds scattered about, but
sufficient insolation allowed temperatures to warm well into the mid
to upper 60s. A strong cold front continued to push south this
afternoon with the front reaching roughly a Guymon-Garden
City-Norton KS line as of 20Z. The strongest winds were over the
High Plains of eastern Colorado where blowing dust was being
reported, especially in the La Junta area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
Winds will be the main forecast challenge tonight and how to handle
with the wind advisory headline. Earlier in the day we extended the
advisory to start sooner, especially across the western and northern
counties. All the guidance, including RAP and NAM forecast
soundings, suggest a fairly prolonged period of 25 to 28 knots
sustained this evening through about 09Z. Thereafter, the focus of
the wind will shift into south-central Kansas with the gradient
relaxing roughly west of a Meade to Dodge City to Hays line toward
daybreak. As far as precipitation is concerned, we eliminated POPs
everywhere except south-central Kansas where we kept 20-30 POPs
across mainly Barber County in the low level frontogenetic zone. RAP
and HRRR have shown a persistent convective signal in this area with
several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE. Any convection which does affect
Barber County this evening will quickly move southeast into northern
Oklahoma, so the threat for anything substantial as far as a
prolonged strong or even severe threat is extremely minimal. Low
level cold advection will prevail tonight, but with the winds
keeping the boundary layer mixed, we really won`t see terribly low
temperatures for lows -- mainly in the 29-33F range for much of the
southwest Kansas region. The downslope component in the lower
troposphere will eliminate the cold advection, and with insolation
resuming we should see temperatures Sunday warm up into the upper
40s to near 50 in some locations.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level ridge axis transitioning
southeastward across the Western High Plains Monday while an upper
level trough of low pressure tracks east-southeast across the
Pacific Northwest. Along with a fairly weak flow aloft, this will
result in dry conditions across western Kansas through Monday
night. The upper level trough will then push further southeast
into the Northern Plains Tuesday setting up precip chances from the
Dakotas southward into Nebraska and possibly Kansas. Although an
attendant cold front is projected to push through western Kansas
early Tuesday, the bulk of the upper level system will pass just to
our north. Along with drier air in the lower levels, little if any
rain is expected Tuesday...so a slight chance for rain seems
reasonable. Drier conditions are then expected to persist through
mid week as the flow aloft becomes more zonal.
Well above normal temperatures are expected Monday as lee side
troughing develops and strengthens across eastern Colorado. This
will set up a low level flow across western Kansas helping to draw
much warmer air into the area with H85 temperatures in the mid
Teens(C) across central Kansas to near 20C closer to the Colorado
border. Look for widespread highs up into the 70s(F) Monday
afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are likely Tuesday as a cold
front pushes through western Kansas early in the day. Colder air
will surges southward into the area with the H85 0C isotherm
reaching as far south as the I-70 corridor by late Tuesday
afternoon. Highs are only expected up into the 50s(F) across
west central Kansas to possibly the lower to mid 60s(F) in south
central Kansas. More seasonal temperatures are expected through
the end of the week as the flow aloft becomes more zonal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
Light winds this afternoon will quickly change to a strong north
wind by late afternoon. Wind speeds will likely peak during the
early to mid evening hours at around 27 to 29 knots sustained...but
24 to 27 knots will persist through much of the night and into the
morning Sunday at all three terminals (DDC, GCK, HYS). There will
also likely be a 3 to 5 hour period of MVFR ceilings in stratus, but
any ceiling should dissolve by mid-morning as the storm system
responsible pulls away from the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 32 49 27 73 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 30 49 28 75 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 31 52 32 78 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 32 51 27 78 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 30 48 26 72 / 10 0 0 0
P28 35 49 24 73 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Sunday FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-061>063-074-075-084-085.
WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Sunday FOR
KSZ064>066-076>081-086>090.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
946 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE CURRENTLY HAVE TWO SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA. ONE IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE APPROACHING WEST TX. AT THE
SURFACE...LEE DRUGGING HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
MODIFIED TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING...HOWEVER
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S LOOK FEASIBLE GIVEN LESS
CLOUD COVER AND DECENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. NAM/GFS APPEAR
OVER-AGGRESSIVE WITH TIMING AND EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BASED
ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. RUC AND HRRR HAVE PICKED UP ON
SLOWER ADVECTION. DUE TO DELAYED MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CWA...HAVE
TONED DOWN PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE DAY...FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE NIL OR VERY LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
IN LATER UPDATE...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST TIMING OF THE START OF WIND
ADVISORY GIVEN NEW GUIDANCE. WILL LOOK AT A FEW MORE THINGS BEFORE
MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS THOUGH.
SF
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE
TRACKS ACROSS THE RED RIVER. AS THE NORTHERN SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN OVER AR THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN THE WRAP
AROUND REGION OF THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR
AREAS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-135. IN ADDITION...THIS SAME
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL START AS ALL RAIN AREA WIDE
TONIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW AND ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF FAR SE KS PICKS UP A QUICK INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW...MAINLY AFTER 12Z SUN WITH SOME SLEET ALSO MIXING-IN. THE
MODEL TREND HAS DEFINITELY BEEN TO PULL COLDER AIR SOUTH WITH EACH
RUN.
THE BIGGER STORY MAY END UP BEING THE VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
REALLY TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH UPPER END ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN POSSIBLE OVER SE KS BY
EARLY SUN MORNING. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE FORECASTING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW OVER SE KS SUN MORNING...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS EVENTUALLY NEEDED DUE TO THE COMBO OF STRONG WINDS AND SNOW.
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END SUN AFTERNOON AS WE GET RIGHT
BACK INTO RETURN FLOW TO START THE WORK WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE.
DID INCREASE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY AS GOOD DOWNSLOPE STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK. HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH SE KS NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ON TUE. CONFIDENCE HAS NOW INCREASED THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO
REMAIN ACTIVE AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON TRACKING ANOTHER
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A SE-MO VG COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE KRSL (~23Z) THAT...UPON ARRIVAL...WILL PRODUCE A
SW-NW WIND SHIFT WITH SPEEDS GREATLY INCREASING TO ~22KTS SUSTAINED
WITH ~30KT GUSTS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AREAS OF RA/EMBEDDED TS SHOULD
SPREAD N/NE ACROSS PRIMARILY SE KS ~16/00Z BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT KCNU UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WHEN NLY WINDS
WILL GREATLY INCREASE TO ~25KTS SUSTAINED WITH ~35KTS GUSTS LIKELY.
SUCH INCREASES WOULD OCCUR OVER THE REST OF CENTRAL & SC KS 03Z-06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH RH`S
IN THE MID 20S TO ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INTO THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY OVER CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AREA WIDE TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE LIKELY WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH. FIRE DANGER
WILL REMAIN IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY FOR AREAS THAT ARE NOT
SEEING WIDESPREAD PRECIP...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE AREAS WEST OF
I-135. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUN KEEPING THE FIRE
DANGER ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 32 41 23 / 30 60 30 0
HUTCHINSON 71 31 43 23 / 20 40 20 0
NEWTON 71 31 41 22 / 20 60 30 0
ELDORADO 71 31 39 21 / 30 70 40 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 70 34 40 23 / 50 70 40 0
RUSSELL 69 27 45 25 / 10 30 10 0
GREAT BEND 70 29 45 25 / 10 30 10 0
SALINA 72 30 42 22 / 10 50 20 0
MCPHERSON 71 30 42 22 / 20 50 20 0
COFFEYVILLE 70 33 37 21 / 60 100 100 0
CHANUTE 71 32 35 18 / 40 80 70 0
IOLA 72 32 35 18 / 30 80 70 0
PARSONS-KPPF 70 32 36 20 / 50 100 90 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ053-069>072-
093>096-098>100.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1100 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Precipitation mostly has ended across the winter weather advisory
area. Have some lighter snows over the Bluegrass now, but will cover
that area with a Traveler`s Advisory (TA). Another batch of
precipitation still is headed towards the far southeast corner of
the original advisory, so have kept it in place there with
temperatures below freezing in that region. A quick look at
soundings shows it will be close between them getting sleet or snow.
Given that Danville is showing snow now, would lean toward the
latter. Once that batch has moved through the rest of the advisory
area should be converted to a TA. One other note...given wet
conditions across South Central KY, decided to go ahead and throw
them in with the TA...given that the wet roads will have the
potential to freeze with lows going to around 30 down there and road
temperatures falling.
Issued at 830 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
As mentioned below, have cancelled part of the winter weather
advisory and replaced a portion of the cancelled area with a
Travelers Advisory. Looking at webcams up in our northern row of
counties, have seen roads already drying, and that region had less
precipitation than the rest of the forecast area. Thus kept that
northern row out of any further advisories.
As for the winter weather advisory, decided to keep it up a little
longer from Jefferson KY to Hardin KY, given the number of accident
reports we have been hearing from down there. Likely will drop those
counties in another hour or two, and replace with a travelers
advisory the rest of the night.
Issued at 600 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Have a couple of bands of heavier precipitation with lighter precip
surrounding them. One ranges from Tell City to Corydon to Goshen,
with reports coming in that this band is producing mostly snow.
Webcam out of Paoli earlier indicated some brief accumulations
there, but light totals. A second band runs from Hartford to E-town
to Harrodsburg. Type is more mixed with this band, but Dual Pol data
indicate that it has a better chance to be snow from Washington
county in KY to Jessamine county. Had a report from Springfield of
all snow and another report of a rain/snow mix east of Bardstown.
Will try and update locations for precip type with graphical
nowcasts on our webpage the next few hours.
Precipitation is starting to end north of that first band, with a
dry line quickly eroding southward into it. Still looking at some
potential for up to an inch of snow/sleet west of the I-65 corridor,
but a better chance to get into the 1-2 inch range east of I-65 in
the advisory area. Still, those accumulations should not last too
long after the precip ends, given warm ground conditions. Road
temperatures are starting to drop some, now in the mid 30s across
southern Indiana, but still in the 40s over central and southern KY.
At some point later in the evening, likely will convert the Winter
Weather Advisory into a Traveller`s Advisory for wet roads that
could freeze once those temps drop down enough. Fortunately the
place where this happens the quickest...our northern Indiana
counties...also have the least total QPF.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
It continues to rain across southern Kentucky at this hour, with the
rain mixing in with sleet across northern Kentucky and southern
Indiana. Reports of sleet stretch generally along the I-64 corridor.
There are a few reports of freezing rain on elevated surfaces across
the Bluegrass region, which is certainly possible, on elevated
surfaces. Ground and subsurface temperatures are still generally in
the 40s, a couple lower 50s for subsurface temps.
It took a little bit to finally saturate across the north today, but
once the moisture worked in it did not take long for the warm nose
at about 870 hPa to wetbulb. Latest aircraft soundings indicate this
nose of warm air is rather shallow yet maximizes at about +2C. It
should not take too much longer to cool that to the point where
partial melting will no longer occur and we transition over to all
snow by late this afternoon and evening. The deformation zone is
setting up across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, pretty
much as advertised.
The latest data, including the RAP have trended the best area of
snow/sleet accumulations a little farther north. The GFS places the
axis of accumulation across southern Indiana and into the far
northern Kentucky Bluegrass region. The NAM accumulation axis is a
little south of this by about one to two counties. The 17Z RAP
(latest as of this writing) still keeps most of the accumulations
south of the Ohio River, but now runs from roughly Jefferson County
Kentucky eastward into the Bluegrass region. The SREF is still the
preferred solution here, which takes into account the both the
northern and southern solutions. The SREF probabilities have seemed
to be the most consistent. So, will continue with the best
accumulation potential being from Perry County in Indiana
east-northeastward to Harrison/Nicholas Counties in Kentucky.
Precipitation will wane late this evening and through the early
morning hours.
Still see no reason to make any changes to the Advisory. Still think
near an inch accumulation for much of the Advisory area, a little
higher (1-2 inches) across the Bluegrass region is on tap. These
accumulations are more likely to occur on grassy areas and elevated
surfaces. With temperatures dropping into the 20s and lower 30s by
daybreak Monday, some slick spots on area roadways could be
possible. If the RAP continues to edge northward with it`s
accumulation axis, then some of the southeastern counties in the
Advisory might be dropped in later updates.
Let`s move on to Monday and warming temperatures this week. Monday
and Monday night will be dry with much lighter winds than today, as
high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures should top
out in the middle to upper 40s during the afternoon hours and drop
off into the upper 20s and 30s Monday night.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
================================
In the long term period, the flow aloft across North America will
remain rather progressive...but fairly zonal. Large negative height
anomalies at 500 hPa will remain located well to the north near
James Bay while an axis of positive height anomalies remains
generally in place across the NE Pacific into Alaska. The
configuration of the upper flow pattern will lead to a storm path
from the NNW to ESE through the period. Two systems look to affect
our region during the extended period. The first will arrive on
Wednesday with a secondary system coming into the region late Friday
and Saturday. This flow pattern will result in more seasonal
temperatures across the forecast area. A moderate warm up is
expected for Tuesday depending on the extent of return flow. A
stronger warm up looks increasingly likely by Friday as a more
robust return flow regime develops in advance of the aforementioned
second system.
================================
Model Preference & Confidence
================================
Overall, the deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro are in fairly
good agreement through the period. There continues to be some
timing issues with regards to the system arriving on Wednesday and
again late Friday and Saturday. However, the timing issues are
showing more convergence with time, so overall confidence is
slightly above normal. Raw model temperatures are a little too cool
and given recent model cold biases, feel that the statistical MOS
guidance is probably a bit better at this point. This would be
especially true Tuesday and Friday afternoon. Generally have gone
on the warmer side of the multi-model consensus which includes the
ensemble solutions. Minimum temperatures look good from a raw model
standpoint. Precipitation timing/amounts have average forecast
confidence, but the overall forecaster confidence trend is on the
upswing.
================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
================================
Overall, milder weather is on tap for the area through much of the
work week. A southerly flow is forecast to take shape late Monday
night into Tuesday. This combined with mid-march sun angles should
result in milder than normal temperatures. As mentioned above, have
gone closer to the statistical guidance here with highs in the lower
to middle 60s in the north and middle 60s down south. Clouds will
increase Tuesday night as the first upper level trough axis and
trailing cold front approach the region. This feature should bring
a band of showers through the region. Have trended the frontal
timing closer to the Euro here with a passage during the day on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mild with lows in the
lower-middle 40s and highs on Wednesday topping out in the middle to
upper 50s. Lows Wednesday night look to cool back into the 30s.
High pressure and ridging will build back in for Thursday with highs
warming back into he upper 50s to the lower 60s. A deeper return
flow pattern looks to return Thursday night and into Friday. Friday
looks to be the warmest day of the period. After a morning start in
the lower 40s, temperatures Friday afternoon look to warm into the
upper 60s to near 70 in the north...with 70-72 likely across far
southern KY. With the warmth, this only signals yet another
frontal passage that will occur late Friday night into Saturday
morning. With the warmer profiles and more moisture in the area,
rain showers with some scattered thunderstorms look likely. Again
in the post-frontal wake, we`ll see a cool down after the front
passes with highs on Saturday and Sunday warming into the middle to
upper 50s...while overnight lows remain in the upper 30s to the
lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Snow should be the predominate weather type at KLEX/KSDF next few
hours before ending. IFR conditions are possible in the heavier
bands as they cross each site. Winds will continue to gust out of
the northeast as low pressure over northern AL continues moving
east. Expect low clouds to linger a few more hours after the precip
ends, with them staying longest at KBWG according to model time
height sections keeping low-level lift and moisture in place through
then. Winds will slacken by daybreak.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Monday FOR KYZ056-057-066-
067.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJP
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
836 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
As mentioned below, have cancelled part of the winter weather
advisory and replaced a portion of the cancelled area with a
Travelers Advisory. Looking at webcams up in our northern row of
counties, have seen roads already drying, and that region had less
precipitation than the rest of the forecast area. Thus kept that
northern row out of any further advisories.
As for the winter weather advisory, decided to keep it up a little
longer from Jefferson KY to Hardin KY, given the number of accident
reports we have been hearing from down there. Likely will drop those
counties in another hour or two, and replace with a travelers
advisory the rest of the night.
Issued at 600 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Have a couple of bands of heavier precipitation with lighter precip
surrounding them. One ranges from Tell City to Corydon to Goshen,
with reports coming in that this band is producing mostly snow.
Webcam out of Paoli earlier indicated some brief accumulations
there, but light totals. A second band runs from Hartford to E-town
to Harrodsburg. Type is more mixed with this band, but Dual Pol data
indicate that it has a better chance to be snow from Washington
county in KY to Jessamine county. Had a report from Springfield of
all snow and another report of a rain/snow mix east of Bardstown.
Will try and update locations for precip type with graphical
nowcasts on our webpage the next few hours.
Precipitation is starting to end north of that first band, with a
dry line quickly eroding southward into it. Still looking at some
potential for up to an inch of snow/sleet west of the I-65 corridor,
but a better chance to get into the 1-2 inch range east of I-65 in
the advisory area. Still, those accumulations should not last too
long after the precip ends, given warm ground conditions. Road
temperatures are starting to drop some, now in the mid 30s across
southern Indiana, but still in the 40s over central and southern KY.
At some point later in the evening, likely will convert the Winter
Weather Advisory into a Traveller`s Advisory for wet roads that
could freeze once those temps drop down enough. Fortunately the
place where this happens the quickest...our northern Indiana
counties...also have the least total QPF.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
It continues to rain across southern Kentucky at this hour, with the
rain mixing in with sleet across northern Kentucky and southern
Indiana. Reports of sleet stretch generally along the I-64 corridor.
There are a few reports of freezing rain on elevated surfaces across
the Bluegrass region, which is certainly possible, on elevated
surfaces. Ground and subsurface temperatures are still generally in
the 40s, a couple lower 50s for subsurface temps.
It took a little bit to finally saturate across the north today, but
once the moisture worked in it did not take long for the warm nose
at about 870 hPa to wetbulb. Latest aircraft soundings indicate this
nose of warm air is rather shallow yet maximizes at about +2C. It
should not take too much longer to cool that to the point where
partial melting will no longer occur and we transition over to all
snow by late this afternoon and evening. The deformation zone is
setting up across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, pretty
much as advertised.
The latest data, including the RAP have trended the best area of
snow/sleet accumulations a little farther north. The GFS places the
axis of accumulation across southern Indiana and into the far
northern Kentucky Bluegrass region. The NAM accumulation axis is a
little south of this by about one to two counties. The 17Z RAP
(latest as of this writing) still keeps most of the accumulations
south of the Ohio River, but now runs from roughly Jefferson County
Kentucky eastward into the Bluegrass region. The SREF is still the
preferred solution here, which takes into account the both the
northern and southern solutions. The SREF probabilities have seemed
to be the most consistent. So, will continue with the best
accumulation potential being from Perry County in Indiana
east-northeastward to Harrison/Nicholas Counties in Kentucky.
Precipitation will wane late this evening and through the early
morning hours.
Still see no reason to make any changes to the Advisory. Still think
near an inch accumulation for much of the Advisory area, a little
higher (1-2 inches) across the Bluegrass region is on tap. These
accumulations are more likely to occur on grassy areas and elevated
surfaces. With temperatures dropping into the 20s and lower 30s by
daybreak Monday, some slick spots on area roadways could be
possible. If the RAP continues to edge northward with it`s
accumulation axis, then some of the southeastern counties in the
Advisory might be dropped in later updates.
Let`s move on to Monday and warming temperatures this week. Monday
and Monday night will be dry with much lighter winds than today, as
high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures should top
out in the middle to upper 40s during the afternoon hours and drop
off into the upper 20s and 30s Monday night.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
================================
In the long term period, the flow aloft across North America will
remain rather progressive...but fairly zonal. Large negative height
anomalies at 500 hPa will remain located well to the north near
James Bay while an axis of positive height anomalies remains
generally in place across the NE Pacific into Alaska. The
configuration of the upper flow pattern will lead to a storm path
from the NNW to ESE through the period. Two systems look to affect
our region during the extended period. The first will arrive on
Wednesday with a secondary system coming into the region late Friday
and Saturday. This flow pattern will result in more seasonal
temperatures across the forecast area. A moderate warm up is
expected for Tuesday depending on the extent of return flow. A
stronger warm up looks increasingly likely by Friday as a more
robust return flow regime develops in advance of the aforementioned
second system.
================================
Model Preference & Confidence
================================
Overall, the deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro are in fairly
good agreement through the period. There continues to be some
timing issues with regards to the system arriving on Wednesday and
again late Friday and Saturday. However, the timing issues are
showing more convergence with time, so overall confidence is
slightly above normal. Raw model temperatures are a little too cool
and given recent model cold biases, feel that the statistical MOS
guidance is probably a bit better at this point. This would be
especially true Tuesday and Friday afternoon. Generally have gone
on the warmer side of the multi-model consensus which includes the
ensemble solutions. Minimum temperatures look good from a raw model
standpoint. Precipitation timing/amounts have average forecast
confidence, but the overall forecaster confidence trend is on the
upswing.
================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
================================
Overall, milder weather is on tap for the area through much of the
work week. A southerly flow is forecast to take shape late Monday
night into Tuesday. This combined with mid-march sun angles should
result in milder than normal temperatures. As mentioned above, have
gone closer to the statistical guidance here with highs in the lower
to middle 60s in the north and middle 60s down south. Clouds will
increase Tuesday night as the first upper level trough axis and
trailing cold front approach the region. This feature should bring
a band of showers through the region. Have trended the frontal
timing closer to the Euro here with a passage during the day on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mild with lows in the
lower-middle 40s and highs on Wednesday topping out in the middle to
upper 50s. Lows Wednesday night look to cool back into the 30s.
High pressure and ridging will build back in for Thursday with highs
warming back into he upper 50s to the lower 60s. A deeper return
flow pattern looks to return Thursday night and into Friday. Friday
looks to be the warmest day of the period. After a morning start in
the lower 40s, temperatures Friday afternoon look to warm into the
upper 60s to near 70 in the north...with 70-72 likely across far
southern KY. With the warmth, this only signals yet another
frontal passage that will occur late Friday night into Saturday
morning. With the warmer profiles and more moisture in the area,
rain showers with some scattered thunderstorms look likely. Again
in the post-frontal wake, we`ll see a cool down after the front
passes with highs on Saturday and Sunday warming into the middle to
upper 50s...while overnight lows remain in the upper 30s to the
lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Snow should be the predominate weather type at KLEX/KSDF next few
hours before ending. IFR conditions are possible in the heavier
bands as they cross each site. Winds will continue to gust out of
the northeast as low pressure over northern AL continues moving
east. Expect low clouds to linger a few more hours after the precip
ends, with them staying longest at KBWG according to model time
height sections keeping low-level lift and moisture in place through
then. Winds will slacken by daybreak.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Monday FOR KYZ028>031-
033>043-045>049-053>057-066-067.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJP
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
710 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 600 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Have a couple of bands of heavier precipitation with lighter precip
surrounding them. One ranges from Tell City to Corydon to Goshen,
with reports coming in that this band is producing mostly snow.
Webcam out of Paoli earlier indicated some brief accumulations
there, but light totals. A second band runs from Hartford to E-town
to Harrodsburg. Type is more mixed with this band, but Dual Pol data
indicate that it has a better chance to be snow from Washington
county in KY to Jessamine county. Had a report from Springfield of
all snow and another report of a rain/snow mix east of Bardstown.
Will try and update locations for precip type with graphical
nowcasts on our webpage the next few hours.
Precipitation is starting to end north of that first band, with a
dry line quickly eroding southward into it. Still looking at some
potential for up to an inch of snow/sleet west of the I-65 corridor,
but a better chance to get into the 1-2 inch range east of I-65 in
the advisory area. Still, those accumulations should not last too
long after the precip ends, given warm ground conditions. Road
temperatures are starting to drop some, now in the mid 30s across
southern Indiana, but still in the 40s over central and southern KY.
At some point later in the evening, likely will convert the Winter
Weather Advisory into a Traveller`s Advisory for wet roads that
could freeze once those temps drop down enough. Fortunately the
place where this happens the quickest...our northern Indiana
counties...also have the least total QPF.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
It continues to rain across southern Kentucky at this hour, with the
rain mixing in with sleet across northern Kentucky and southern
Indiana. Reports of sleet stretch generally along the I-64 corridor.
There are a few reports of freezing rain on elevated surfaces across
the Bluegrass region, which is certainly possible, on elevated
surfaces. Ground and subsurface temperatures are still generally in
the 40s, a couple lower 50s for subsurface temps.
It took a little bit to finally saturate across the north today, but
once the moisture worked in it did not take long for the warm nose
at about 870 hPa to wetbulb. Latest aircraft soundings indicate this
nose of warm air is rather shallow yet maximizes at about +2C. It
should not take too much longer to cool that to the point where
partial melting will no longer occur and we transition over to all
snow by late this afternoon and evening. The deformation zone is
setting up across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, pretty
much as advertised.
The latest data, including the RAP have trended the best area of
snow/sleet accumulations a little farther north. The GFS places the
axis of accumulation across southern Indiana and into the far
northern Kentucky Bluegrass region. The NAM accumulation axis is a
little south of this by about one to two counties. The 17Z RAP
(latest as of this writing) still keeps most of the accumulations
south of the Ohio River, but now runs from roughly Jefferson County
Kentucky eastward into the Bluegrass region. The SREF is still the
preferred solution here, which takes into account the both the
northern and southern solutions. The SREF probabilities have seemed
to be the most consistent. So, will continue with the best
accumulation potential being from Perry County in Indiana
east-northeastward to Harrison/Nicholas Counties in Kentucky.
Precipitation will wane late this evening and through the early
morning hours.
Still see no reason to make any changes to the Advisory. Still think
near an inch accumulation for much of the Advisory area, a little
higher (1-2 inches) across the Bluegrass region is on tap. These
accumulations are more likely to occur on grassy areas and elevated
surfaces. With temperatures dropping into the 20s and lower 30s by
daybreak Monday, some slick spots on area roadways could be
possible. If the RAP continues to edge northward with it`s
accumulation axis, then some of the southeastern counties in the
Advisory might be dropped in later updates.
Let`s move on to Monday and warming temperatures this week. Monday
and Monday night will be dry with much lighter winds than today, as
high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures should top
out in the middle to upper 40s during the afternoon hours and drop
off into the upper 20s and 30s Monday night.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
================================
In the long term period, the flow aloft across North America will
remain rather progressive...but fairly zonal. Large negative height
anomalies at 500 hPa will remain located well to the north near
James Bay while an axis of positive height anomalies remains
generally in place across the NE Pacific into Alaska. The
configuration of the upper flow pattern will lead to a storm path
from the NNW to ESE through the period. Two systems look to affect
our region during the extended period. The first will arrive on
Wednesday with a secondary system coming into the region late Friday
and Saturday. This flow pattern will result in more seasonal
temperatures across the forecast area. A moderate warm up is
expected for Tuesday depending on the extent of return flow. A
stronger warm up looks increasingly likely by Friday as a more
robust return flow regime develops in advance of the aforementioned
second system.
================================
Model Preference & Confidence
================================
Overall, the deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro are in fairly
good agreement through the period. There continues to be some
timing issues with regards to the system arriving on Wednesday and
again late Friday and Saturday. However, the timing issues are
showing more convergence with time, so overall confidence is
slightly above normal. Raw model temperatures are a little too cool
and given recent model cold biases, feel that the statistical MOS
guidance is probably a bit better at this point. This would be
especially true Tuesday and Friday afternoon. Generally have gone
on the warmer side of the multi-model consensus which includes the
ensemble solutions. Minimum temperatures look good from a raw model
standpoint. Precipitation timing/amounts have average forecast
confidence, but the overall forecaster confidence trend is on the
upswing.
================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
================================
Overall, milder weather is on tap for the area through much of the
work week. A southerly flow is forecast to take shape late Monday
night into Tuesday. This combined with mid-march sun angles should
result in milder than normal temperatures. As mentioned above, have
gone closer to the statistical guidance here with highs in the lower
to middle 60s in the north and middle 60s down south. Clouds will
increase Tuesday night as the first upper level trough axis and
trailing cold front approach the region. This feature should bring
a band of showers through the region. Have trended the frontal
timing closer to the Euro here with a passage during the day on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mild with lows in the
lower-middle 40s and highs on Wednesday topping out in the middle to
upper 50s. Lows Wednesday night look to cool back into the 30s.
High pressure and ridging will build back in for Thursday with highs
warming back into he upper 50s to the lower 60s. A deeper return
flow pattern looks to return Thursday night and into Friday. Friday
looks to be the warmest day of the period. After a morning start in
the lower 40s, temperatures Friday afternoon look to warm into the
upper 60s to near 70 in the north...with 70-72 likely across far
southern KY. With the warmth, this only signals yet another
frontal passage that will occur late Friday night into Saturday
morning. With the warmer profiles and more moisture in the area,
rain showers with some scattered thunderstorms look likely. Again
in the post-frontal wake, we`ll see a cool down after the front
passes with highs on Saturday and Sunday warming into the middle to
upper 50s...while overnight lows remain in the upper 30s to the
lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Snow should be the predominate weather type at KLEX/KSDF next few
hours before ending. IFR conditions are possible in the heavier
bands as they cross each site. Winds will continue to gust out of
the northeast as low pressure over northern AL continues moving
east. Expect low clouds to linger a few more hours after the precip
ends, with them staying longest at KBWG according to model time
height sections keeping low-level lift and moisture in place through
then. Winds will slacken by daybreak.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday FOR
KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-066-067.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday FOR
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJP
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
737 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 736 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
AN AREA OF SNOW WAS MOVING QUICKLY WEST TO EAST THROUGH WESTERN
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. WE HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS BAND...WHICH WAS LARGELY BEING FORCED BY STRONG
WAA. WE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUD COVER AS WELL.
WE DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PERIODS AT THIS TIME. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND COULD RECEIVE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND THE 18Z NAM CAME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. THESE SOLUTIONS PUT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW...OVER 8 INCHES...FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL AS
EXTREME NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ECMWF ALSO CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER WITH ITS
SNOWFALL FORECAST. THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY HAS KEPT US FROM ISSUING
A WATCH AND WE WILL MOST LIKELY WAIT FOR THE 00Z MODELS BEFORE
DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS MOVING
NE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH ND. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH ITS`
SURFACE REFLECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF
ND WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW HITTING THE GROUND. THE MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 03Z...AND GNA/ASX BY 10Z. DUE TO SOME FRONTOGENESIS
ACROSS THE AREA...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BEFORE
ENDING WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY MORNING IN NE MN/NW WI EXCEPT THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE THERE WILL BE AROUND AN INCH MORE DUE TO TERRAIN
LIFT.
THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 210 IN
NE MN AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 IN NW WI. ABOUT AN INCH WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
LONG TERM....MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
FOCUS ON A WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF OF THE PACIFIC COAST. LATEST GFS/ECM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE MAKES LANDFALL
OVERNIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR IDEA THAT A VORT/H85 LOW
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA MONDAY
NIGHT...WHILE LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER MN/WI. THIS LOW THEN DEEPENS
INTO A CLOSED H50 LOW AS IT ROTATES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING AND PWATS AROUND A HALF INCH...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6-8"
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE LOW
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ALL OVER BOARD WITH THE LOW
TRACK...WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON
PTYPE/SN AMOUNTS. AN ENSEMBLE CLUSTER PLOT OF THE LOW TRACK ISSUED
BY THE WPC SHOWS VARIANCE IN THE LOW POSITION TUESDAY ANYWHERE FROM
NRN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN IOWA. WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING A
WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
STORM TRACK.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST...CONTINUING TO
WEIGH THE POPS/QPF/SN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECM.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE/NRN WISC ZONES THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
HOW WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE. AN AREA OF SNOW WAS
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO MANITOBA IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG WAA. THE BAND OF SNOW WAS MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A RATHER NARROW BAND OF
SNOW WITH A 1-2 HOUR SPAN OF LOW VSBYS/CEILINGS. WE WILL REFINE
THE TIMING IN THE TAFS AS THIS BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THE COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
LIMITED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE BAND OF SNOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 14 28 21 31 / 60 50 50 80
INL 15 34 19 30 / 70 40 40 60
BRD 18 36 26 32 / 40 40 60 80
HYR 11 30 22 37 / 50 60 10 40
ASX 11 29 22 35 / 50 60 30 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
650 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS MOVING
NE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH ND. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH ITS`
SURFACE REFLECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF
ND WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW HITTING THE GROUND. THE MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 03Z...AND GNA/ASX BY 10Z. DUE TO SOME FRONTOGENESIS
ACROSS THE AREA...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BEFORE
ENDING WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY MORNING IN NE MN/NW WI EXCEPT THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE THERE WILL BE AROUND AN INCH MORE DUE TO TERRAIN
LIFT.
THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 210 IN
NE MN AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 IN NW WI. ABOUT AN INCH WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
LONG TERM....MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
FOCUS ON A WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF OF THE PACIFIC COAST. LATEST GFS/ECM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE MAKES LANDFALL
OVERNIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR IDEA THAT A VORT/H85 LOW
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA MONDAY
NIGHT...WHILE LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER MN/WI. THIS LOW THEN DEEPENS
INTO A CLOSED H50 LOW AS IT ROTATES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING AND PWATS AROUND A HALF INCH...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6-8"
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE LOW
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ALL OVER BOARD WITH THE LOW
TRACK...WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON
PTYPE/SN AMOUNTS. AN ENSEMBLE CLUSTER PLOT OF THE LOW TRACK ISSUED
BY THE WPC SHOWS VARIANCE IN THE LOW POSITION TUESDAY ANYWHERE FROM
NRN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN IOWA. WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING A
WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
STORM TRACK.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST...CONTINUING TO
WEIGH THE POPS/QPF/SN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECM.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE/NRN WISC ZONES THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
HOW WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE. AN AREA OF SNOW WAS
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO MANITOBA IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG WAA. THE BAND OF SNOW WAS MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A RATHER NARROW BAND OF
SNOW WITH A 1-2 HOUR SPAN OF LOW VSBYS/CEILINGS. WE WILL REFINE
THE TIMING IN THE TAFS AS THIS BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THE COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
LIMITED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE BAND OF SNOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 14 28 21 31 / 60 50 50 80
INL 15 34 19 30 / 60 40 40 60
BRD 18 36 26 32 / 50 40 60 80
HYR 11 30 22 37 / 50 60 10 40
ASX 11 29 22 35 / 50 60 30 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
745 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES AND COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...
AN COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH VA THIS AFTERNOON MARKS
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AND
COMPLEX...POSITIVELY TILED UPPER TROUGH IS EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 1002MB
SURFACE LOW KICKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY
REGION. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE MOSTLY DRIVING THE
EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD THAT HAS FINALLY SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FOCUSED ALONG AND 850MB WARM
FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN NC. A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO WESTERN NC IS
RAPIDLY DEPLETING MOISTURE ALOFT AND PRECIP IS DWINDLING OVER THE
FOOTHILLS. HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT A STEADY RAIN THROUGH 00Z.
AFTER 00Z...ICE NUCLEATION IS LOST AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WEAKENS...SUGGESTING PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE DRIZZLY WITH TIME.
THE BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE TEMPS TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ICING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED LITTLE TO CONFIDENCE TODAY...WITH
THE GFS AND NAM STILL SHOWING A 5C DIFFERENCE IN THE COLD NOSE THAT
DEVELOPS TONIGHT. THE NAM DEPICTION OF A NEAR -10C COLD DOME SEEMS
EXTREME...SO HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE GFS AND ECMWF AND KEEP PRECIP
AS FREEZING RAIN WHEN TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
NORTHERN VIRGINIA ARE IN THE TEENS AND THIS AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST TOWARD NY AND
A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE SURFACE
WETBULB FREEZING LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AREAS BY AROUND 09Z. HOWEVER.. THE SURFACE HIGH IS ONLY
AROUND 1025MB AND NOT IS THE MOST FAVORED POSITION...SO WITH ONLY
LIGHT PRECIP AND MARGINAL TEMPS...THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE AN ADVISORY
EVENT. THERE IS NOTHING GLARING IN GUIDANCE OR OBS THAT SUGGESTS
MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT....AND IMPACTS
SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH JUST A GLAZE IN TREES AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
MONDAY...
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
NUDGE UP A DEGREE OR TWO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...GETTING BACK
ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY. NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED THAT PRECIP WONT
PICK BACK UP AS THE ACTUAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES DURING THE
DAY...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN DRY ALOFT. WHILE DRIZZLE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE WITH THE CAD AIRMASS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE
AREA...FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END...AT LEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON PORTION OF THE DAY. THUS THE ADVISORY SHOULD BE ABLE
TO END AT NOON. HIGHS 34-42.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...
THE GUIDANCE HAS DEFINITELY TRENDED DRIER WITH THE RECENT MODEL
RUNS...AS BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW MINIMAL QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE GFS...FOR
EXAMPLE...HAS A SURFACE LOW MAYBE WITH A TREND SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...
OVER THE LAST FOUR OR FIVE MODEL RUNS...THERE HAS BEEN A DEFINITE
TREND TOWARD DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...NOTICEABLY DRIER AT 500MB AND
700MB OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA USING A BASIC DPROG/DT
FROM THE RUN OF 15/12Z TO THE RUN OF 16/12Z. THE NAM EXHIBITS THE
SAME TREND...WITH MARKED DRYING ONLY FROM ITS LAST MODEL RUN. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WHILE NOT WITH GREAT CONFIDENCE THAT FUTURE RUNS WILL
NOT RETURN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND
INCREASE THE THREAT OF BETTER GLAZING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
CERTAINLY THE CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW...WITH MOS GUIDANCE POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY AT BEST...TO EXTEND OR INTRODUCE NEW HEADLINES.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS AS WELL. THE NAM IS MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THE LATTER IN BETWEEN...THOUGH THE
LATEST TREND OF THE NAM IS FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN ITS PREVIOUS MODEL
RUN. WILL LEAN TOWARD A SOLUTION SLOWER THAN THE GFS...CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF WHICH SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BLEND BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS.
WITH 850MB LIFT MODEST AT BEST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND
GENERAL 850MB THETA-E TROUGHINESS IN PLACE...FOR A LARGE PART OF
THIS PERIOD OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WILL ONLY HAVE
CHANCE POPS. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300MB JET IS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS WELL. WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LIKELY CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MOST
MOIST AT THAT POINT...BUT EVEN THERE THE MID-LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
DRY DURING THE EVENING. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ALTHOUGH...FOR MUCH
OF THE LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE...IF ANY...COULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE AND LATER
FORECASTS MAY ACTUALLY NEED TO ADJUST POPS DOWNWARD IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AS THE UPPER TROUGH GETS
CLOSER...THE UPPER LEVELS MOISTEN ENOUGH WHERE THERE COULD BE A
RETURN TO A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR NOW EAST OF U.S. 1 CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW.
ONCE AGAIN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SEEM TO DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION UNDER A
CLOUDY SKY. THE MENTION OF NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT ALBEMARLE TO
WILSON.
DEPENDING ON HOW THE QPF EVOLVES AND HOW MUCH LINGERING MOISTURE
THERE WILL BE LATE MONDAY...AT THIS POINT THE THOUGHT IS THAT THERE
COULD BE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DURING
TUESDAY...THICKNESSES AND SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES INCREASE
SUCH THAT...BY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE THE THREAT OF NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE GRIDDED ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST...WITH SOME
VERY LIGHT HOURLY AMOUNTS EVEN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY OF
POPS...COULD END UP BEING A WORST CASE SCENARIO AND THOSE AMOUNTS
ARE...FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT...CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 0.15 INCH OR LESS.
DEFINITELY LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MOS ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES AND SEEMS TO
DO BETTER IN COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...
A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN DIFFLUENCE IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE...AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH ALOFT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
AGAIN THURSDAY EXTENDING FROM THAT GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. AFTER A
FLAT RIDGE ALOFT FRIDAY...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH A TROUGH ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. THESE HIGH-LEVEL
SYNOPTIC TRENDS ARE SIMILAR TO THE GUIDANCE OF LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL SEEMS TO HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
LINGERING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...AND WITH DRY MID
LEVELS ON BOTH GFS BUFR AND COARSE ECMWF SOUNDINGS...DRIZZLE AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST
DURING THE DAY. WET BULB SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SOUNDINGS WOULD
ALL SUGGEST A HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION...ANOTHER
CONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. WHILE SUCH A
PARAMETER WILL NOT BE FORECAST YET...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF...AS SKIES CLEAR AND SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY UP AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE THE AIR SHOULD BE MORE MOIST AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SURFACE BOUNDARY HEADED TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY HAVE PROGRESSIVELY BEEN FORECAST COOLER AND WILL CONTINUE
THIS TREND FOR THIS FORECAST...CLOSER TO THE ECWMF MOS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE...BUT STILL A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THAT IN DEFERENCE
TO THE MEX MOS.
ON THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE ECMWF NOTES
SPOTTY QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE THAT SHOULD PRECLUDE MOISTURE RETURN
AND STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS RIDGING
OVER THE GULF WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP INHIBIT MOISTURE RETURN. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY IN THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE DRY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ALTERNATIVE
COULD BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN
AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...
COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...LATER IN THE DAY.
THE HIGH RETREATS LATE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF IS
FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND COULD BRING PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS EARLY AS SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE GFS...NOT AS
AMPLIFIED...IS SLOWER AND WOULD NOT INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A PROGRESSION NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADUALLY ALONG
THE FRONT. AS THE HIGH RETREATS...THIS COULD ALSO BE A SITUATION
WHERE...WITH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE ATLANTIC...
SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL NOTE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS VERY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE...AND FOR NOW WILL SHOW A DRY SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKING
AHEAD TO POSSIBLY ANOTHER GULF SYSTEM IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST AFTER
THIS LONG-TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...
CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND WITH JUST A FEW EXCEPTIONS...FLT CONDITIONS
ARE NOW IFR ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC. LOOK FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VSBY DROPPING BELOW 2M DURING BRIEF
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN. WHILE LATEST REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW
SUBFREEZING AIR IS STILL WELL TO OUR NORTH...EVENTUALLY LATER
OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE COLDER AIR AND LOWER DWPTS PUSH SOUTH TOWARD
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NC...THUS WE STILL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT KINT/KGSO AFTER 10Z...
WITH LITTLE IMPACT DUE TO LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY AND REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE AREA TERMINALS INTO
TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
NORTH AND WEST OF KRDU LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.
IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY NOT COME UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1115 AM SUNDAY...
WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE STILL 2.5 INCHES OR GREATER FOR THREE
HOURS OR GREATER...WILL CONTINUE TO REFRAIN FROM ANY FLOOD WATCHES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED QPF. SHOULD NOTE THAT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CONUS MAY IMPACT SOME OF THE EXPECTED HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. CONSISTENTLY IT APPEARS THE PROBABILITY OF MINOR FLOOD
STAGE BEING REACHED IS HIGHEST AT SMITHFIELD WHERE A RIVER FLOOD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT...LESS SO AT CLAYTON...AND NOTICEABLY LOWER AT
OTHER MAINSTEM RIVER SITES EVEN BASED ON THE HIGHEST QPF AVAILABLE
ON THE ENSEMBLE RIVER LEVEL OUTPUT OF THE MMEFS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 17 (MONDAY) ARE...
KGSO...38 DEGREES FROM 2005.
KRDU...32 DEGREES FROM 1892.
KFAY...39 DEGREES FROM 2005.
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 18 (TUESDAY) ARE...
KGSO...36 DEGREES FROM 1961.
KRDU...36 DEGREES FROM 1892.
KFAY...41 DEGREES FROM 1998.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
MONDAY FOR NCZ007>009-021>023.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...NP/SMITH
HYDROLOGY...DJF
CLIMATE...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
545 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE COLD FRONT
STILL OFFSHORE AND THE THE NAM AND GFS ARE A BOUT TOO FAST WITH
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL. THE RAP 13 BARELY BRINGS PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST BY 8PM PDT, THEN PUSHES IT INLAND BETWEEN 8 PM PDT AND 11
PM PDT. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING TO REFLECT THE RAP 13
TIMING. ALSO ADJUSTED SNOW LEVELS HIGHER EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE BIG DROP IN SNOW LEVEL COMING AFTER 11 PM PDT. THIS ALONG WITH
RECENT WARMING AND WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN
LESS ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALL
WITH AN INCH PER HOUR RATE. THIS IS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE SNOW
ADVISORY. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DETAILS THE AREAS EXPECTED TO
GET IMPACTED THE MOST FROM SNOW AND THIS STILL REMAINS VALID.
PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON MOUNTAIN SNOW.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
AVIATION...BASED ON THE 16/18Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AS GRADIENTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STRENGTHEN. WINDS MAY BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY AT KMFR. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN TO KOTH BY AROUND 01Z, THEN KRBG BY 03Z WITH CIGS
LOWERING DOWN TO MVFR. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED. RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z AT KMFR WHERE CIGS WILL LOWER, BUT
PROBABLY REMAIN VFR. AT KLMT, A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 07-09Z WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SPILDE
MARINE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BECOME VERY STEEP THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING AS A LARGE WEST SWELL TRAIN MOVES THROUGH. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY. NORTH
GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS EASTWARD AS A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON. FB/SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM PDT SUN MAR 16 2014/
SHORT TERM...A FAST MOVING FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A COLDER AIR MASS TO THE AREA WITH
SHARPLY LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. ALSO STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE AREA
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH OVER THE CASCADES, SISKIYOUS AND IN
THE SUMMER LAKE AREA. OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW GUSTS OF AROUND 30
MPH IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS AND ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE
AREA. THEN WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT
FOR INLAND AREAS.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND...WITH
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS THEN
LOWERING TO 3000 FEET AND LOCALLY DOWN TO 2500 FEET TONIGHT.
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
TO THE CASCADES WITH MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT.
IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TO
THE CASCADE CREST. AREAS SUCH AS DIAMOND LAKE, CRATER LAKE,
HIGHWAY 140 NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS AND DEAD INDIAN MEMORIAL ROAD
SUMMIT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
TONIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA QUICKLY, TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ONLY
AROUND 3 TO 7 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE CASCADES
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES BELOW 4500 FEET. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW AT
TIMES, VERY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE PERIODS OF BLOWING
SNOW AND VERY POOR VISIBILITIES IN THE OREGON CASCADES. BLOWING
SNOW IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS IN THE CASCADES.
IN THE SISKIYOUS EXPECT LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN THESE AREAS.
FOR COASTAL AREAS, THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
CONCERN HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AS A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL MOVES INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND
LARGE BREAKERS TO COASTAL AREAS.
MONDAY MORNING, BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH
TO LIGHT SHOWERS WITH BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES. THEN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED
FOR VALLEYS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S ARE EXPECTED IN EAST SIDE VALLEYS. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AND BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
INLAND VALLEYS. HOWEVER A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND BRING CLOUDS INTO COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALSO AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND TO THE
NORTH, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY TO
AREAS IN SOUTHERN OREGON FROM THE CASCADES WEST. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FEET WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
EXPECTED DRY PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. A SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING LOWERING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 2500 FEET WEST
OF THE CASCADES, BUT BY THIS TIME, MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE
AND THERE`S ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST TO
THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD.
OVERALL, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES RIDING OVER TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
BUT NONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH OR HAVE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL INDUCE SOME GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST OR EVEN EAST WINDS AT
SOME OF THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES, ESPECIALLY THE COAST RANGES OF SW
OREGON. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX A BIT, SO
THESE RIDGE WINDS SHOULD EASE. BY SUNDAY, A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO AMPLIFY, WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY MODIFY TOWARD AND PERHAPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR ORZ027-028.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
340 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE TODAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA
IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF SHRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS AT 0530Z
IN ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT. STILL EXPECT BAND OF SHRA TO DISSIPATE AS
THEY PASS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...MAINLY THE RESULT OF
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST RAP AND NAMPARA SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO WILL MENTION HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE W MTNS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A -SHRA ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
AN EXAMINATION UPSTREAM OBS AND LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS ANY
CHANGEOVER TO -SHSN OVR THE NW MTNS WILL OCCUR AFTER THE BULK OF
PRECIP HAS PASSED...SO REMOVED OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ENTIRELY.
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT BY DAWN FROM ARND 32F ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO THE L40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW FROM CLIPPER OVR S QUEBEC WILL
PUSH SE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TODAY...BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP /EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS/.
SKY COVER DURING MUCH OF SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY IN THE SE...TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE KBFD VCNTY.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO THE MID-UPPER 20KT RANGE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY...MAKING IT FEEL NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THE
OTHERWISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 30S NW...TO LOWER AND
MID 50S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH IN TO
THE STATE. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE AXIS OF A
STRENGTHENING EAST/WEST JET CORE.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY LARGE NORTH-SOUTH TEMP SPREAD
FROM THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC ANTICYCLONE...WITH ORIGINS OVER THE NW TERRITORIES...WILL DIVE
SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR
ACROSS CENTRAL PA. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC
SFC LOW WILL BE GATHERING GULF OF MEX MOISTURE OVR THE LWR MS
VLY/DELTA REGION WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP FROM MISSOURI TO
VIRGINIA. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SWD SURGE OF
CANADIAN AIR ASSOCD WITH SFC HIGH INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. GEFS
MEAN 925 TEMPS OF 1-2SD BLW AVG SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY OF ONLY
THE M20S N MTNS AND PERHAPS ARND 40F IN SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS A FIXTURE ACRS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND
MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON FOR THIS CYCLE.
1) SFC WAVE OR WAVES MIGRATING NEWD FROM GULF COAST STATES ACRS
THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC MON-TUE.
2) PLAINS SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVG E/NE THRU THE GRT
LKS AND APPLCHNS WED-THU.
THE KEY FEATURE OF INTEREST /SYSTEM #1/ REMAINS THE MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SUN NITE-MONDAY BASED ON BLEND OF 00Z GUIDANCE...ALL
OF WHICH NOW TRACK SFC LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW TO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN PA. A POOR-MANS ENSEMBLE OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS/ENSEMBLE/HPC GUIDANCE...SUGGEST A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE SUN NITE-MONDAY.
CONCERNING SYSTEM #2...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A SFC RIDGE SHOULD
SEPARATE THE DEPARTING SYSTEM #1 AND SFC LOW LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS/GEFS TRENDING SLOWER INTO MIDWEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR DAYS 6-8.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PRODUCE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IN WESTERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CWA BEFORE PRECIPITATION WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. THE FRONT WILL BRING TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS AND VERY GUSTY
SW WINDS /AND LLWS/. WINDS MAY DIMINISH A BIT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.
SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING OVER NW MTNS AS
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CIG
AND OCNL VSBY REDUCTIONS. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSS
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z ACROSS LAUREL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING KJST.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS STIFF WINDS SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY...INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. GUSTS DURING THE DAY
WILL INCREASE TO 30-40MPH AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. LLWS WILL DECREASE AS CORE OF JET SHIFTS TO OUR NE.
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT AT KBFD...BUT OTHERWISE VFR
SHOULD BE THE RULE. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
HOWEVER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT-MON...SNOW WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
TUE...MAINLY VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR ALONG WITH SCTD RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
148 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF PA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF SHRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS AT 0530Z
IN ASSOC WITH COLD FRONT. STILL EXPECT BAND OF SHRA TO DISSIPATE AS
THEY PASS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...MAINLY THE RESULT OF
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. LATEST RAP AND NAMPARA SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO WILL MENTION HIGH POPS ACROSS
THE W MTNS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A -SHRA ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
AN EXAMINATION UPSTREAM OBS AND LATEST MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS ANY
CHANGEOVER TO -SHSN OVR THE NW MTNS WILL OCCUR AFTER THE BULK OF
PRECIP HAS PASSED...SO REMOVED OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ENTIRELY.
TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT BY DAWN FROM ARND 32F ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO THE L40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW FROM CLIPPER OVR S QUEBEC WILL
PUSH SE ACROSS THE CWA LATE TODAY...BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP /EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS/.
SKY COVER DURING MUCH OF SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY IN THE SE...TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE KBFD VCNTY.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO THE MID-UPPER 20KT RANGE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY...MAKING IT FEEL NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THE
OTHERWISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 30S NW...TO LOWER AND
MID 50S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH IN TO
THE STATE. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE AXIS OF A
STRENGTHENING EAST/WEST JET CORE.
FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY LARGE NORTH-SOUTH TEMP SPREAD
FROM THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC ANTICYCLONE...WITH ORIGINS OVER THE NW TERRITORIES...WILL DIVE
SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR
ACROSS CENTRAL PA. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC
SFC LOW WILL BE GATHERING GULF OF MEX MOISTURE OVR THE LWR MS
VLY/DELTA REGION WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP FROM MISSOURI TO
VIRGINIA. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SWD SURGE OF
CANADIAN AIR ASSOCD WITH SFC HIGH INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. GEFS
MEAN 925 TEMPS OF 1-2SD BLW AVG SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY OF ONLY
THE M20S N MTNS AND PERHAPS ARND 40F IN SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS A FIXTURE ACRS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND
MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ON FOR THIS CYCLE.
1) SFC WAVE OR WAVES MIGRATING NEWD FROM GULF COAST STATES ACRS
THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC MON-TUE.
2) PLAINS SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVG E/NE THRU THE GRT
LKS AND APPLCHNS WED-THU.
THE KEY FEATURE OF INTEREST /SYSTEM #1/ REMAINS THE MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE REGION SUN NITE-MONDAY BASED ON BLEND OF 00Z GUIDANCE...ALL
OF WHICH NOW TRACK SFC LOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW TO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN PA. A POOR-MANS ENSEMBLE OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS/ENSEMBLE/HPC GUIDANCE...SUGGEST A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE SUN NITE-MONDAY.
CONCERNING SYSTEM #2...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A SFC RIDGE SHOULD
SEPARATE THE DEPARTING SYSTEM #1 AND SFC LOW LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS/GEFS TRENDING SLOWER INTO MIDWEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
FOR DAYS 6-8.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATTELITE SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
WITH SHOWERS BECOMING POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY
VFR CONDITIONS AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BY 07Z. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER BFD...JST AND IPT. THESE WINDS
COULD SUBSIDE BRIEFLY...BY 06Z...BEFORE PICKING UP POST
FRONTAL....BETWEEN 10 TO 14Z.
THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW MTNS WITH SHOWERS OF
RAIN...CHANGING TO SHSN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CIG REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
AND TEMPO IFR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS CFROPA. CIG HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY
GO NO LOWER THAN MVFR ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. IFR UNTIL 15Z IS EXPECTED AT JST AND BFD.
ONE MAIN IMPACT OVERNIGHT TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS IS IN THE FORM OF A
GUSTY SW SFC WINDS /AND WIDESPREAD LLWS/...AS AN AXIS OF STRONG
WINDS ALOFT /ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET/ SLIDES EAST. LLWS
IS INCREASING AS 850MB JET INCREASES TO 50-60 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. LLWS WILL MOVE OFF AS THE JET MOVES NORTHEAST BY MID
SATURDAY MORNING.
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO SAT AT KBFD...BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE THE RULE. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER.
VFR WILL FOLLOW FOR LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GLAKES.
ANOTHER STORM TRACKING SOUTH OF PA LATE SUNDAY INTO MON COULD
BRING SOME SNOW CLOSE TO SE PA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...AM -SHRASN/REDUCED CIGS POSS W MTNS. BREEZY.
SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT-MON...SNOW WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
TUE...MAINLY VFR.
TUES NIGHT AND WED...PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR ALONG WITH SCTD
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
823 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE BUT NO
REPORTS OF WINTRY PRECIP HAVE YET BEEN RECEIVED IN OUR
CWA...WITH MAIN AREA OF SLEET AND SNOW FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. LATEST HRRR AND WRF RUNS
INDICATE LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHILE PRECIP SHIFTS
OUT OF NORTHWEST ZONES AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS BRINGS
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH IF ANY WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE
SEEN IN NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN MID TN. NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF A WAVERLY TO
LAFAYETTE LINE...AND WILL KEEP MENTION IN GRIDS/ZONES. ADJUSTED
POPS AND TEMPS SOMEWHAT BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS BUT LEFT
MAJORITY OF INHERITED FORECAST AS IS.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
AVIATION...
SURFACE SYSTEM CRAWLING ALONG ALABAMA BORDER THIS EVENING WITH
OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BECOMING LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP SOUTHERN AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE GOING TO BOUNCE ALL OVER THE PLACE
BUT HAVE OPTED ON THE SAFE SIDE AND KEPT FORECAST IN THE IFR/LIFR
RANGE OVERNIGHT. CLARKSVILLE HAS ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE OF GETTING
A LITTLE LIGHT SLEET AFTER 03Z AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE NIGHT. TEMPS AT NASHVILLE AND CROSSVILLE LOOK TO BE
TOO WARM FOR WINTRY PRECIP.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1054 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S. CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP ENOUGH AS MIXING OCCURS FOR
TEMPS TO RISE INTO LOW 70S. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS FIRST OF 2
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES OVER NEW MEXICO. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO W TX. SECOND SHORT WAVE REMAINS
BACK OVER THE ROCKIES AND SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE S ROCKIES INTO
MEXICO TONIGHT. SOUTHERN BRANCH OF JET WILL INCREASE OVER TX THIS
AFTERNONO AS LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. AT SFC...SFC LOW PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF KSWW SOUTH OF KCDS. WARM FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS RED RIVER REGION OF N TX WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION
IN OK. WARM SECTOR MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S HAVE PUSHED AS FAR NORTH AS HOUSTON THIS MORNING. MAIN
ISSUE WITH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WHETHER THE CAP ERODES OVER THE
AREA. THE 12Z KCRP AND KLCH SHOW FAIRLY STOUT CAPPING AT
800-700MB. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT CAP MAY ERODE SOME AS
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY BE THE CASE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHERE THE
CAP IS WEAKER. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON THAT CONVECTION COULD INITIATE AND THEN MOVE NE OUT OF
THE AREA. LATEST RAP RUNS SUPPORT THIS IDEA ALONG WITH THE NAM AND
HRRR. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND INCLUDED MENTION OF SEVERE. LIKE
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF HAIL/WIND BUT BOTH LOW
LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH THE CAP
ERODING...COULD SEE ROTATING STORMS SO TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT
AS WELL ESPCIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN AREA FOR
THIS THREAT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF A COLLEGE STATION TO
HUNTSVILLE LINE INTO E AND NE TX. THINK THE THREAT WILL END AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
LIMITING CONVECTION DOWN THE FRONT BUT LATEST NAM DOES DEVELOP
CONVECTION SUNDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS WITH NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 58 62 36 61 / 60 60 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 63 67 40 61 / 40 40 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 62 67 44 57 / 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SPOKANE WA
1030 PM PDT Fri Mar 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system is exiting the area this evening and winds are
expected to subside. High pressure and drier weather returns but
is short lived as another weather disturbance pushes a threat of
precipitation into the Cascades late Saturday into Sunday, then
across the remainder of the Inland Northwest later Sunday
afternoon into Monday. Drier weather returns Tuesday through
Wednesday Night, but another threat of showers will be possible
late in the week. Temperatures will remain above seasonal norms
through the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Quick update this evening to adjust chance of precipitation
through the evening and overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms
have quickly moved east and have removed all shower mention across
eastern WA. Some light showers continue across north ID, but they
are very isolated and should be out of the area in the next hour
or two. The Pudget Sound Convergence Zone continues around Stevens
Pass this evening. HRRR model showing it continuing through about
10 pm tonight...so additional snow accumulations is possible. Winds
should start to subside a bit by 8 pm, but will generally be in
the 5-10 mph range overnight. /Nisbet
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Gusty SW winds have decreased...though there are a few
locally breezy places like KGEG, KPUW & KEAT. Winds will continue to
lower overnight. There is the potential of some patchy fog across
valleys north and east of KGEG and have added some tempo groups in
for KSFF and KCOE for potential fog, though confidence is not high.
An increase in clouds from the west will move into the area aft
12z Sat. Chance of showers across northern WA and ID sat aftn and
early evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 32 52 37 56 38 51 / 0 10 10 50 70 60
Coeur d`Alene 29 50 36 54 38 50 / 0 10 10 60 80 60
Pullman 33 53 39 58 39 51 / 0 0 0 10 70 70
Lewiston 37 59 41 64 43 57 / 0 0 0 10 60 70
Colville 29 53 34 57 34 55 / 0 40 20 70 70 40
Sandpoint 29 46 34 50 35 48 / 0 20 20 70 70 50
Kellogg 30 47 35 50 36 46 / 10 10 10 60 80 80
Moses Lake 34 58 39 63 39 59 / 0 10 0 20 40 10
Wenatchee 36 55 37 59 35 55 / 0 10 10 20 40 10
Omak 31 54 34 58 32 55 / 0 30 20 40 50 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
528 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THIS
MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING AND MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS WELL. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOWFALL WILL GET. THE
HIGH IS FAIRLY STRONG, AND DRY ENOUGH THAT IT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPRESS THE SNOW FROM GETTING MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN WHERE IT IS
NOW. WE`VE HAD SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GET SEVERAL MORE INCHES HERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE STRONGEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE BEING MAXED
NOW. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE, SO
SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS WE APPROACH THE RUSH
HOUR. HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
WHERE OUR ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE NOW. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY WHERE IT HAS BEEN SNOWING THE LONGEST AND HEAVIEST.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO AT LEAST
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE RUC AND HRRR ACTUALLY HAVE THE SNOW DISSIPATING
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. STILL, WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SNOW IN THE FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOWERING CHANCES AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS. HOWEVER,
WE USED A MAJORITY OF THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA WHERE THEY HAVE THE BETTER POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SOME
PEEKS OF SUN TODAY, AND THE COOLER MET MOS FOR THE REST OF THE ARE
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE ENDED BY THE TIME
THE EVENING ROLLS AROUND. WE MAY JUST HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS, WHERE SOME MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OUT OF CANADA, IT WILL KEEP FILTERING COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC ON
TUESDAY MORNING AND IT WILL NOSE DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND IT WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION
GRADUALLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND
THEY SHOULD APPROACH NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR REGION ON
THURSDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING SHOWERS WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AIR MASS
SHOULD INFLUENCE OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES,
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AT LEAST THOSE AREAS NOT NEAR
THE OCEAN OR THE BAYS. THE SATURDAY FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR REGION.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY`S COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
KABE...THE SNOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF KABE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
KRDG AND KTTN...A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE 1200Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KPHL, KPNE AND KILG...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
ABOUT 1200Z OR 1300Z. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY
AFTER 1200Z OR 1300Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM ABOUT 1800Z OR 1900Z ONWARD.
KMIV AND KACY...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 1400Z,
LIFTING TO MVFR FOR THE PERIOD FROM AROUND 1400Z UNTIL 2000Z, THEN
VFR.
A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AT KRDG AND KABE.
FOR OUR REMAINING SIX TAF SITES INCLUDING KPHL, A NORTHEAST WIND
AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO 6
TO 10 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT....MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING AND MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA TODAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OFF OF
SANDY HOOK WAS DROPPED AND CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
WINDS NO LONGER ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS HERE.
THE GALE WARNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISH, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WAS EXTENDED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT
WERE RUNNING ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
DEPARTURES WILL NOT INCREASE TO MORE THAN ABOUT A FOOT TO A FOOT
AND A HALF ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. THE RESULTING WATER
LEVELS WOULD NOT REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. DEPARTURES
OF GREATER THAN A FOOT AND A HALF WOULD BE NEEDED AROUND THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE TODAY TO CAUSE A PROBLEM.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MORE SNOWFALL RECORDS TO FALL AND/OR CLIMBING HIGHER IN THE
SNOWFALL RECORD DEPARTMENT. ACY HAS THE BEST CHANCES:
DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR:
MARCH 17
ALLENTOWN 4.2 IN 1967
ATLANTIC CITY 1.6 IN 1965
PHILADELPHIA 3.5 IN 1892
WILMINGTON 2.4 IN 1965
IN PHILADELPHIA, WE HAVE HAD 13 SEPARATE CALENDAR DAYS IN WHICH
AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW HAS FALLEN THIS SEASON. WE HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE TO MAKE IT 15 CALENDAR DAYS WHICH WOULD GIVE THIS SEASON
SOLE POSSESSION OF SECOND PLACE. A MORE LIKELY 14 CALENDAR DAYS
WOULD TIE US WITH 1898-99 WHILE THE RECORD IS 17 CALENDAR DAYS IN
THE 1917-18 SEASON.
SPEAKING OF SECOND PLACE, AN ADDITIONAL 2.7 INCHES WOULD GIVE
PHILADELPHIA (62.9 INCHES CURRENTLY) THE SECOND SNOWIEST SEASON ON
RECORD, SURPASSING THE 65.5 INCHES DURING THE 1995-6 SEASON. THE
ALL-TIME RECORD IS 78.7 INCHES IN 2009-10. IT APPEARS SAFE THROUGH
THIS EVENT. IF 6.6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW WERE TO FALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK, IT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME EVER THERE HAVE BEEN FOUR DOUBLE
DIGIT MONTHS OF SNOWFALL IN ONE SEASON IN PHILADELPHIA.
ATLANTIC CITY (33.7 INCHES CURRENTLY) NEEDS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW TO CRACK THE TOP 10 SNOWIEST SEASONS ON RECORD
AND 8.7 ADDITIONAL INCHES TO SUPPLANT 2002-3 AS THE 5TH SNOWIEST.
THE MOST RECENT SNOWIEST WINTER WAS 2010-11 (RANKED 8TH) AT 38.0
INCHES. NUMERO UNO IS THE WINTER OF 2009-10 AT 58.1 INCHES.
WILMINGTON (52.9 INCHES CURRENTLY) NEEDS 3.1 ADDITIONAL INCHES TO
SUPPLANT 1995-6 AS THE SECOND SNOWIEST SEASON ON RECORD. THE
RECORD IS 72.8 INCHES DURING THE 2009-10 SEASON.
ALLENTOWN SEASONAL SNOWFALL RANKS. WE MIGHT NOT MOVE UP.
75.4 INCHES IN 1993-4
71.4 INCHES IN 1995-6
67.2 INCHES IN 1966-7
66.9 INCHES IN 2013-4
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ070-071-
101-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ016>018-
020>027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ012>015-
019.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431-451>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...GIGI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES THIS
MORNING AS SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS MORNING AND MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS WELL. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOWFALL WILL GET. THE
HIGH IS FAIRLY STRONG, AND DRY ENOUGH THAT IT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPRESS THE SNOW FROM GETTING MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN WHERE IT IS
NOW. WE`VE HAD SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GET SEVERAL MORE INCHES HERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE STRONGEST
LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE BEING MAXED
NOW. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE, SO
SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS WE APPROACH THE RUSH
HOUR. HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
WHERE OUR ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE NOW. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY WHERE IT HAS BEEN SNOWING THE LONGEST AND HEAVIEST.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO AT LEAST
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE RUC AND HRRR ACTUALLY HAVE THE SNOW DISSIPATING
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. STILL, WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SNOW IN THE FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOWERING CHANCES AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, WE TOOK A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS. HOWEVER,
WE USED A MAJORITY OF THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA WHERE THEY HAVE THE BETTER POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SOME
PEEKS OF SUN TODAY, AND THE COOLER MET MOS FOR THE REST OF THE ARE
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY REMAINING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE ENDED BY THE TIME
THE EVENING ROLLS AROUND. WE MAY JUST HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS, WHERE SOME MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE ITS WAY DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OUT OF CANADA, IT WILL KEEP FILTERING COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE,
BRINGING COOL AND DRY WX. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST, BUT ATTM, ALL GUID (EXCEPT THE
NAM) KEEPS IT WELL OFF THE COAST.
BY TUE NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE UPR MS
VLY AND BRING A WMFNT THRU THE REGION. THIS FRONT COULD TRIGGER
SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY ERLY WED. DEPENDING ON ONSET TIME, THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW OR A MIX FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W, BEFORE
A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN EVENT ON WED AS TEMPS RISE. THE CDFNT ASSOCD
WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. PRECIP CHCS WILL
INCREASE THRU THE DAY AHEAD OF FROPA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE SERN STATES AND KEEP
THINGS DRY FOR FRI BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AND
WHILE IT LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
N AND W FOR SNOW OR A MIX FRI NIGHT INTO ERLY SAT.
A LARGE HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FOR SUN.
TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NRML THEN RISE TO NR OR A BIT ABV
SEASONAL VALUES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDD PD.
THE VERNAL EQUINOX IS THURSDAY AT 1257 PM. HOPEFULLY MOTHER
NATURE CAN TAKE THE HINT!
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
KABE...THE SNOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF KABE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
KRDG AND KTTN...A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE 1200Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KPHL, KPNE AND KILG...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
ABOUT 1200Z OR 1300Z. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY
AFTER 1200Z OR 1300Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM ABOUT 1800Z OR 1900Z ONWARD.
KMIV AND KACY...IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 1400Z,
LIFTING TO MVFR FOR THE PERIOD FROM AROUND 1400Z UNTIL 2000Z, THEN
VFR.
A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AT KRDG AND KABE.
FOR OUR REMAINING SIX TAF SITES INCLUDING KPHL, A NORTHEAST WIND
AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO 6
TO 10 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT....MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING AND MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND OUT
TO SEA TODAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OFF OF
SANDY HOOK WAS DROPPED AND CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
WINDS NO LONGER ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS HERE.
THE GALE WARNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISH, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WAS EXTENDED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT
WERE RUNNING ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
DEPARTURES WILL NOT INCREASE TO MORE THAN ABOUT A FOOT TO A FOOT
AND A HALF ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. THE RESULTING WATER
LEVELS WOULD NOT REACH THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. DEPARTURES
OF GREATER THAN A FOOT AND A HALF WOULD BE NEEDED AROUND THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE TODAY TO CAUSE A PROBLEM.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MORE SNOWFALL RECORDS TO FALL AND/OR CLIMBING HIGHER IN THE
SNOWFALL RECORD DEPARTMENT. ACY HAS THE BEST CHANCES:
DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR:
MARCH 17
ALLENTOWN 4.2 IN 1967
ATLANTIC CITY 1.6 IN 1965
PHILADELPHIA 3.5 IN 1892
WILMINGTON 2.4 IN 1965
IN PHILADELPHIA, WE HAVE HAD 13 SEPARATE CALENDAR DAYS IN WHICH
AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW HAS FALLEN THIS SEASON. WE HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE TO MAKE IT 15 CALENDAR DAYS WHICH WOULD GIVE THIS SEASON
SOLE POSSESSION OF SECOND PLACE. A MORE LIKELY 14 CALENDAR DAYS
WOULD TIE US WITH 1898-99 WHILE THE RECORD IS 17 CALENDAR DAYS IN
THE 1917-18 SEASON.
SPEAKING OF SECOND PLACE, AN ADDITIONAL 2.7 INCHES WOULD GIVE
PHILADELPHIA (62.9 INCHES CURRENTLY) THE SECOND SNOWIEST SEASON ON
RECORD, SURPASSING THE 65.5 INCHES DURING THE 1995-6 SEASON. THE
ALL-TIME RECORD IS 78.7 INCHES IN 2009-10. IT APPEARS SAFE THROUGH
THIS EVENT. IF 6.6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW WERE TO FALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK, IT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME EVER THERE HAVE BEEN FOUR DOUBLE
DIGIT MONTHS OF SNOWFALL IN ONE SEASON IN PHILADELPHIA.
ATLANTIC CITY (33.7 INCHES CURRENTLY) NEEDS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW TO CRACK THE TOP 10 SNOWIEST SEASONS ON RECORD
AND 8.7 ADDITIONAL INCHES TO SUPPLANT 2002-3 AS THE 5TH SNOWIEST.
THE MOST RECENT SNOWIEST WINTER WAS 2010-11 (RANKED 8TH) AT 38.0
INCHES. NUMERO UNO IS THE WINTER OF 2009-10 AT 58.1 INCHES.
WILMINGTON (52.9 INCHES CURRENTLY) NEEDS 3.1 ADDITIONAL INCHES TO
SUPPLANT 1995-6 AS THE SECOND SNOWIEST SEASON ON RECORD. THE
RECORD IS 72.8 INCHES DURING THE 2009-10 SEASON.
ALLENTOWN SEASONAL SNOWFALL RANKS. WE MIGHT NOT MOVE UP.
75.4 INCHES IN 1993-4
71.4 INCHES IN 1995-6
67.2 INCHES IN 1966-7
66.9 INCHES IN 2013-4
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ070-071-
101-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ016>018-
020>027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ012>015-
019.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431-451>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...GIGI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
450 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
...UPDATED MARINE SECTION TO INCLUDE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...
...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...
...ELEVATED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR AREA BEACHES...
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AND AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTED BY RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR OUR
WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT HAS ALMOST COMPLETED ITS
FRACTURE FROM THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. THERE ARE ACTUALLY
CURRENTLY TWO SEPARATE PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS FRACTURE. ONE IS
PIVOTING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...WHILE THE OTHER IS SLIDING
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO FORM AN ELONGATED
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME QUITE POTENT AS ITS AXIS
BECOMES ALIGNED MORE NORTH-SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
CURRENTLY WV IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD EXPANSE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF AND SE CONUS
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING
INTO THE NATURE COAST TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. A BROKEN LINE OF
STRONGER CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY SOUTHWEST BACK INTO
THE GULF. THIS LINE WILL BE THE INITIAL CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE CELLS QUICKLY
PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE CONVERGENCE FORCING THE STORMS
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE SETUP FOR
MUCH OF THE EARLY/MIDDLE MORNING HOURS...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES JUST NORTH OF I-4...TO CHANCE OR
EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH.
AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX FRONTAL ZONES WITH SEVERAL ANALYZED WAVES
ALONG IT EXTENDS FROM THE GA/CAROLINA COASTLINE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY
CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY...AND WILL NOT REALLY GET A GOOD
EASTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE PENINSULA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN RENEWED
SURFACE REFLECTION CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE SE CONUS COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT...WE ARE EXPERIENCING A WARM NIGHT FOR
MID MARCH WITH MOST SPOTS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF VERY RAINFALL. THE
MORNING WILL BE WETTEST FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD INTO THE
NATURE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A LARGE SWATH OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE EASTERN CONUS JET STRUCTURE. THE GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE QUITE TIGHT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL NORTH OF TAMPA BAY TO ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE JUST TO
THE SOUTH. IT WILL BE TAMPA BAY THAT IS THE TOUGHEST FORECAST AS TO
JUST WHERE THAT SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STORMS WILL SET UP. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE SETTLED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT THE TAMPA BAY/POLK COUNTY/NATURE COAST REGIONS SHOULD ALL
BE WET...WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO CREEP UP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH THE LATER WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID AND LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND RESULTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THE
DAY TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
THREAT FOR OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES WILL GENERALLY BE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF TODAY...WITH THE THREAT ENDING SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS THROUGH
THE REGION.
WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE
COAST THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING THIS A MORE PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THAN IS USUAL. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THE COVERAGE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL NECESSARILY BE GREATER...BUT JUST THAT THE TIME
SPAN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPPORTING SEVERE WEATHER
IS. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY/SUNCOAST REGION AND WORK ITS WAY
INLAND. AT THIS POINT IT WILL STILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MAIN POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO CATCH UP AS IT
RAPIDLY CROSSES THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE SWATH OF
IMPRESSIVE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...LIKELY
KEEPING THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING. THE PV ANOMALY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE FOLDS THE DYNAMIC TROP DOWN TO ALMOST
700MB PER GFS/ECMWF AND GIVES WAY TO AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL JET OF
90-100KTS APPROACHING THE FL WEST COAST THIS EVENING...AND A HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE STATE.
RENEWED/STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND INCREASED
FRONTOGENETICAL CONVERGENCE AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST MAY ADD TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES. HOWEVER...THIS
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO HELP TO GIVE THIS FRONT A FINAL PUSH AND EXIT
THE BOUNDARY AND SEVERE THREAT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GENERALLY BE GONE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT...LEFTOVER COLUMN MOISTURE LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR THE STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO FORCE MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE AXIS FINALLY EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
A MUCH MORE BENIGN FORECAST QUICKLY COMES INTO PLAY DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. AFTER JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EARLY MORNING
SHOWER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS BECOME MORE ZONAL (OR EVEN RIDGED IN
NATURE). DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT ALLOWING FOR MORE AND
MORE SUN THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OUR FORECAST LOOKS
FAIR AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS GENERAL PATTERN
LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES TO SPEAK OF.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - NEXT SUNDAY)...
FLOW ALOFT THE GULF REGION REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THU...PUSHING A DRY FRONT
THROUGH FL. THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS TO THE GULF
REGION AND CONTINUES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES BY TO THE NORTH ON SAT WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING NORTH FL. THIS FRONT CONTAINS MORE MOISTURE BUT THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES
WITH A DRY STABLE AND GENERALLY WARM AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES BEGIN ON
THE COOL SIDE THU MORNING BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
17/06Z-18/06Z: VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO PREVAILING MVFR...STARTING IN
THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
SHRA AND TSRA PUSH INTO TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ LATE MORNING...PGD/FMY/RSW
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. LCL IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA...REQUIRING TAF AMD LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. RATHER ROBUST SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE
AND VEER TO MORE S-SW.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXIT THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS BEING SEVERE
IN NATURE. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN BE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF SURFACE RIDGES BUILD INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD...AND THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE IN A WET PATTERN BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR BEFORE THE RAINFALL ARRIVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ARRIVING
INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...NO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 63 76 60 / 100 90 20 0
FMY 85 68 80 59 / 60 80 20 10
GIF 82 64 79 58 / 90 90 30 0
SRQ 79 65 74 57 / 100 90 20 0
BKV 78 59 78 51 / 100 90 20 0
SPG 79 64 75 63 / 100 90 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
POLK.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
430 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT...
...ELEVATED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR AREA BEACHES...
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AND AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTED BY RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR OUR
WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT HAS ALMOST COMPLETED ITS
FRACTURE FROM THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. THERE ARE ACTUALLY
CURRENTLY TWO SEPARATE PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS FRACTURE. ONE IS
PIVOTING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...WHILE THE OTHER IS SLIDING
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO FORM AN ELONGATED
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME QUITE POTENT AS ITS AXIS
BECOMES ALIGNED MORE NORTH-SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
CURRENTLY WV IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD EXPANSE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF AND SE CONUS
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING
INTO THE NATURE COAST TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. A BROKEN LINE OF
STRONGER CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY SOUTHWEST BACK INTO
THE GULF. THIS LINE WILL BE THE INITIAL CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE CELLS QUICKLY
PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE CONVERGENCE FORCING THE STORMS
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE SETUP FOR
MUCH OF THE EARLY/MIDDLE MORNING HOURS...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES JUST NORTH OF I-4...TO CHANCE OR
EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH.
AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX FRONTAL ZONES WITH SEVERAL ANALYZED WAVES
ALONG IT EXTENDS FROM THE GA/CAROLINA COASTLINE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY
CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY...AND WILL NOT REALLY GET A GOOD
EASTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE PENINSULA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN RENEWED
SURFACE REFLECTION CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE SE CONUS COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT...WE ARE EXPERIENCING A WARM NIGHT FOR
MID MARCH WITH MOST SPOTS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF VERY RAINFALL. THE
MORNING WILL BE WETTEST FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD INTO THE
NATURE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A LARGE SWATH OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE EASTERN CONUS JET STRUCTURE. THE GRADIENT IN RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE QUITE TIGHT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL NORTH OF TAMPA BAY TO ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE JUST TO
THE SOUTH. IT WILL BE TAMPA BAY THAT IS THE TOUGHEST FORECAST AS TO
JUST WHERE THAT SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STORMS WILL SET UP. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE SETTLED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT THE TAMPA BAY/POLK COUNTY/NATURE COAST REGIONS SHOULD ALL
BE WET...WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO CREEP UP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH THE LATER WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID AND LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND RESULTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THE
DAY TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
THREAT FOR OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES WILL GENERALLY BE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF TODAY...WITH THE THREAT ENDING SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS THROUGH
THE REGION.
WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE
COAST THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING THIS A MORE PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THAN IS USUAL. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THE COVERAGE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL NECESSARILY BE GREATER...BUT JUST THAT THE TIME
SPAN THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPPORTING SEVERE WEATHER
IS. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY/SUNCOAST REGION AND WORK ITS WAY
INLAND. AT THIS POINT IT WILL STILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MAIN POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO CATCH UP AS IT
RAPIDLY CROSSES THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE SWATH OF
IMPRESSIVE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...LIKELY
KEEPING THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING. THE PV ANOMALY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE FOLDS THE DYNAMIC TROP DOWN TO ALMOST
700MB PER GFS/ECMWF AND GIVES WAY TO AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL JET OF
90-100KTS APPROACHING THE FL WEST COAST THIS EVENING...AND A HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE STATE.
RENEWED/STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND INCREASED
FRONTOGENETICAL CONVERGENCE AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST MAY ADD TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES. HOWEVER...THIS
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO HELP TO GIVE THIS FRONT A FINAL PUSH AND EXIT
THE BOUNDARY AND SEVERE THREAT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GENERALLY BE GONE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT...LEFTOVER COLUMN MOISTURE LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR THE STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO FORCE MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE AXIS FINALLY EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
A MUCH MORE BENIGN FORECAST QUICKLY COMES INTO PLAY DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. AFTER JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EARLY MORNING
SHOWER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS BECOME MORE ZONAL (OR EVEN RIDGED IN
NATURE). DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT ALLOWING FOR MORE AND
MORE SUN THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OUR FORECAST LOOKS
FAIR AND DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS GENERAL PATTERN
LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES TO SPEAK OF.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - NEXT SUNDAY)...
FLOW ALOFT THE GULF REGION REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THU...PUSHING A DRY FRONT
THROUGH FL. THEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS TO THE GULF
REGION AND CONTINUES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES BY TO THE NORTH ON SAT WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING NORTH FL. THIS FRONT CONTAINS MORE MOISTURE BUT THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES
WITH A DRY STABLE AND GENERALLY WARM AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES BEGIN ON
THE COOL SIDE THU MORNING BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
17/06Z-18/06Z: VFR WILL GIVE WAY TO PREVAILING MVFR...STARTING IN
THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
SHRA AND TSRA PUSH INTO TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ LATE MORNING...PGD/FMY/RSW
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. LCL IFR
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA...REQUIRING TAF AMD LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. RATHER ROBUST SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE
AND VEER TO MORE S-SW.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXIT THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS BEING
SEVERE IN NATURE. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN BE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF SURFACE RIDGES
BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD...AND THEN BEGIN TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE IN A WET PATTERN BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR BEFORE THE RAINFALL ARRIVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ARRIVING
INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR...NO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 63 76 60 / 100 90 20 0
FMY 85 68 80 59 / 60 80 20 10
GIF 82 64 79 58 / 90 90 30 0
SRQ 79 65 74 57 / 100 90 20 0
BKV 78 59 78 51 / 100 90 20 0
SPG 79 64 75 63 / 100 90 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
POLK.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
118 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Precipitation mostly has ended across the winter weather advisory
area. Have some lighter snows over the Bluegrass now, but will cover
that area with a Traveler`s Advisory (TA). Another batch of
precipitation still is headed towards the far southeast corner of
the original advisory, so have kept it in place there with
temperatures below freezing in that region. A quick look at
soundings shows it will be close between them getting sleet or snow.
Given that Danville is showing snow now, would lean toward the
latter. Once that batch has moved through the rest of the advisory
area should be converted to a TA. One other note...given wet
conditions across South Central KY, decided to go ahead and throw
them in with the TA...given that the wet roads will have the
potential to freeze with lows going to around 30 down there and road
temperatures falling.
Issued at 830 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
As mentioned below, have cancelled part of the winter weather
advisory and replaced a portion of the cancelled area with a
Travelers Advisory. Looking at webcams up in our northern row of
counties, have seen roads already drying, and that region had less
precipitation than the rest of the forecast area. Thus kept that
northern row out of any further advisories.
As for the winter weather advisory, decided to keep it up a little
longer from Jefferson KY to Hardin KY, given the number of accident
reports we have been hearing from down there. Likely will drop those
counties in another hour or two, and replace with a travelers
advisory the rest of the night.
Issued at 600 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Have a couple of bands of heavier precipitation with lighter precip
surrounding them. One ranges from Tell City to Corydon to Goshen,
with reports coming in that this band is producing mostly snow.
Webcam out of Paoli earlier indicated some brief accumulations
there, but light totals. A second band runs from Hartford to E-town
to Harrodsburg. Type is more mixed with this band, but Dual Pol data
indicate that it has a better chance to be snow from Washington
county in KY to Jessamine county. Had a report from Springfield of
all snow and another report of a rain/snow mix east of Bardstown.
Will try and update locations for precip type with graphical
nowcasts on our webpage the next few hours.
Precipitation is starting to end north of that first band, with a
dry line quickly eroding southward into it. Still looking at some
potential for up to an inch of snow/sleet west of the I-65 corridor,
but a better chance to get into the 1-2 inch range east of I-65 in
the advisory area. Still, those accumulations should not last too
long after the precip ends, given warm ground conditions. Road
temperatures are starting to drop some, now in the mid 30s across
southern Indiana, but still in the 40s over central and southern KY.
At some point later in the evening, likely will convert the Winter
Weather Advisory into a Traveller`s Advisory for wet roads that
could freeze once those temps drop down enough. Fortunately the
place where this happens the quickest...our northern Indiana
counties...also have the least total QPF.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
It continues to rain across southern Kentucky at this hour, with the
rain mixing in with sleet across northern Kentucky and southern
Indiana. Reports of sleet stretch generally along the I-64 corridor.
There are a few reports of freezing rain on elevated surfaces across
the Bluegrass region, which is certainly possible, on elevated
surfaces. Ground and subsurface temperatures are still generally in
the 40s, a couple lower 50s for subsurface temps.
It took a little bit to finally saturate across the north today, but
once the moisture worked in it did not take long for the warm nose
at about 870 hPa to wetbulb. Latest aircraft soundings indicate this
nose of warm air is rather shallow yet maximizes at about +2C. It
should not take too much longer to cool that to the point where
partial melting will no longer occur and we transition over to all
snow by late this afternoon and evening. The deformation zone is
setting up across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, pretty
much as advertised.
The latest data, including the RAP have trended the best area of
snow/sleet accumulations a little farther north. The GFS places the
axis of accumulation across southern Indiana and into the far
northern Kentucky Bluegrass region. The NAM accumulation axis is a
little south of this by about one to two counties. The 17Z RAP
(latest as of this writing) still keeps most of the accumulations
south of the Ohio River, but now runs from roughly Jefferson County
Kentucky eastward into the Bluegrass region. The SREF is still the
preferred solution here, which takes into account the both the
northern and southern solutions. The SREF probabilities have seemed
to be the most consistent. So, will continue with the best
accumulation potential being from Perry County in Indiana
east-northeastward to Harrison/Nicholas Counties in Kentucky.
Precipitation will wane late this evening and through the early
morning hours.
Still see no reason to make any changes to the Advisory. Still think
near an inch accumulation for much of the Advisory area, a little
higher (1-2 inches) across the Bluegrass region is on tap. These
accumulations are more likely to occur on grassy areas and elevated
surfaces. With temperatures dropping into the 20s and lower 30s by
daybreak Monday, some slick spots on area roadways could be
possible. If the RAP continues to edge northward with it`s
accumulation axis, then some of the southeastern counties in the
Advisory might be dropped in later updates.
Let`s move on to Monday and warming temperatures this week. Monday
and Monday night will be dry with much lighter winds than today, as
high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures should top
out in the middle to upper 40s during the afternoon hours and drop
off into the upper 20s and 30s Monday night.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2014
================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
================================
In the long term period, the flow aloft across North America will
remain rather progressive...but fairly zonal. Large negative height
anomalies at 500 hPa will remain located well to the north near
James Bay while an axis of positive height anomalies remains
generally in place across the NE Pacific into Alaska. The
configuration of the upper flow pattern will lead to a storm path
from the NNW to ESE through the period. Two systems look to affect
our region during the extended period. The first will arrive on
Wednesday with a secondary system coming into the region late Friday
and Saturday. This flow pattern will result in more seasonal
temperatures across the forecast area. A moderate warm up is
expected for Tuesday depending on the extent of return flow. A
stronger warm up looks increasingly likely by Friday as a more
robust return flow regime develops in advance of the aforementioned
second system.
================================
Model Preference & Confidence
================================
Overall, the deterministic runs of the GFS and Euro are in fairly
good agreement through the period. There continues to be some
timing issues with regards to the system arriving on Wednesday and
again late Friday and Saturday. However, the timing issues are
showing more convergence with time, so overall confidence is
slightly above normal. Raw model temperatures are a little too cool
and given recent model cold biases, feel that the statistical MOS
guidance is probably a bit better at this point. This would be
especially true Tuesday and Friday afternoon. Generally have gone
on the warmer side of the multi-model consensus which includes the
ensemble solutions. Minimum temperatures look good from a raw model
standpoint. Precipitation timing/amounts have average forecast
confidence, but the overall forecaster confidence trend is on the
upswing.
================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
================================
Overall, milder weather is on tap for the area through much of the
work week. A southerly flow is forecast to take shape late Monday
night into Tuesday. This combined with mid-march sun angles should
result in milder than normal temperatures. As mentioned above, have
gone closer to the statistical guidance here with highs in the lower
to middle 60s in the north and middle 60s down south. Clouds will
increase Tuesday night as the first upper level trough axis and
trailing cold front approach the region. This feature should bring
a band of showers through the region. Have trended the frontal
timing closer to the Euro here with a passage during the day on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mild with lows in the
lower-middle 40s and highs on Wednesday topping out in the middle to
upper 50s. Lows Wednesday night look to cool back into the 30s.
High pressure and ridging will build back in for Thursday with highs
warming back into he upper 50s to the lower 60s. A deeper return
flow pattern looks to return Thursday night and into Friday. Friday
looks to be the warmest day of the period. After a morning start in
the lower 40s, temperatures Friday afternoon look to warm into the
upper 60s to near 70 in the north...with 70-72 likely across far
southern KY. With the warmth, this only signals yet another
frontal passage that will occur late Friday night into Saturday
morning. With the warmer profiles and more moisture in the area,
rain showers with some scattered thunderstorms look likely. Again
in the post-frontal wake, we`ll see a cool down after the front
passes with highs on Saturday and Sunday warming into the middle to
upper 50s...while overnight lows remain in the upper 30s to the
lower 40s.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2014
There were only a few snow showers left near LEX as of 5Z. Expect
this precip to move east out of the area within the next few hours
as the parent low pressure system over the Gulf states continues to
track east. Low cigs will hang around through at least this
afternoon though. MVFR cigs below 2 kft can be expected at BWG with
MVFR cigs above 2 kft at SDF/LEX. By this afternoon, most soundings
indicate low level moisture will have thinned a significant amount
so did go with VFR conditions for the rest of the day, but wouldn`t
be surprised if low clouds stick around longer and hover between
sct-bkn. The only other flight restriction in the SDF TAF period
might be some reduced vsbys in br for tomorrow morning.
Winds will remain out of the NE through this afternoon. Winds may
still gust between 20-25 kt for the next few hours especially at
LEX. Closer to sunrise, wind speeds should decline to 6-9 kts.
This evening expect winds to become light in nature and variable
with an easterly component.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT this morning FOR KYZ056-
057-066-067.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJP
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
423 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND AN
UPR RDG IN THE ROCKIES. SFC HI PRES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON
THE 00Z APX/GRB RAOBS /PWAT ARND 0.05 INCH/ ARE BRINGING A TRANQUIL
EARLY MRNG TO THE CWA...BUT HI CLDS ARE ON THE INCRS IN ADVANCE OF A
SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG WHICH IS DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS.
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SLY FLOW BTWN ACCOMPANYING SFC
LO/SE ONTARIO HI PRES AND SOME UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED
120KT H3 JET MAX CAUSING AN AREA OF SN OVER NRN MN. VSBYS IN THIS
AREA OF SN HAVE BEEN AS LO AS 1/2-3/4SM DESPITE FEED OF VERY DRY
LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION
AT 00Z WAS AN IMPRESSIVE 47C. ANOTHER MORE IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV APRCHG
THE PAC NW COAST IS CRASHING INTO THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL REVOLVE ARND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FALLING MSLP IN
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE W COAST.
TDAY...AREA OF SN NOW IN NRN MN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY 12Z
UNDER AREA OF IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280-
290K SFCS /H8-6/ AND AREA OF UPR DVGC. BUT VIGOROUS DRY SLOTTING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET SURGE AT THE SAME TIME THE JET CORE TENDS TO
SHEAR OUT/UPR DVGC WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS MORE CONFLUENT UPR FLOW ON
THE WRN FLANK OF CUTOFF LO IN THE CNDN MARITIMES SHOULD CAUSE THE
PCPN INTENSITY TO DIMINISH STEADILY AS THE AREA MOVES INTO THE DRIER
AIR TO THE E. ONE OTHER MECHANISM THAT WL TEND TO WEAKEN THE SN
MOVING THRU THE CWA IS H85-7 FRONTAL ZN THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN IN
NCENTRAL WI THIS AFTN AND FOCUS THE SHARPER UVV IN THAT AREA ON THE
SRN FLANK OF MID LVL DRY SLOTTING THAT WL IMPACT UPR MI. AS THE
SHARPER H7 FGEN SHIFTS TO THE E ACRS THE SCENTRL CWA LATER THIS
AFTN...SOME HIER POPS MAY IMPACT THAT AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SN
TOTALS...HIEST OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL...SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN
ABOUT AN INCH TDAY GIVEN THE NEGATIVES MENTIONED ABV AS WELL AS
IMPACTS OF DRY AIR.
TNGT...AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW DIGS THRU THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE PLAINS...STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW OVER THE UPR
LKS TO THE NE OF DVLPG SFC LO IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WL TEND TO LIFT
THE SHARPER H85-7 FGEN N INTO UPR MI. ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AT H85
WL TEND TO LIMIT SN CHCS OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...EXPECT INCRSG
POPS OVER THE W ESPECIALLY LATE...WHEN SOME UPR DVGC IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THAT AREA IN THE RRQ OF SHARPENING H3 JET MAX OVER LK SUP.
WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY APRCHG 3 G/KG...THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR
2 OF OF SN ACCUM OVER THE W IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME WHERE AND WHEN THE
FORCING LOOKS MORE FVRBL DESPITE UNFVRBL HIER...THIN DGZ.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
...COMPLEX AND POSSIBLY MULTI FACETED WINTER STORM TO AFFECT UPR
MICHIGAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SFC LOW IN THE VCNTY OF EASTERN NEB INTO KS. H85 LOW IN SIMILAR POSN
WITH SOUTH WINDS DRAWING WARM AIR TOWARD UPR LAKES. AREA OF H8-H6
FGEN OVER UPR MICHIGAN WILL FOCUS SWATH OF SNOW 12Z-18Z ON TUESDAY.
DRYING NOSING IN FROM SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SHARP EDGE TO THE SNOW.
NAM/GFS AND GEM-NH HAVE TRENDED WITH FARTHER SOUTH H85 BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND THUS MORE QPF DURING THE MORNING HOURS THAN THEY PREVIOUSLY
SHOWED. DECENT MOISTURE IS ADVECTING INTO THE FGEN BAND WITH H7
MIXING RATIOS AROUND 3G/KG PER ECMWF. BY TUESDAY AFTN...MOST MODELS
SHOW FGEN SNOW BAND LIFTING NORTH AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE AS MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXITS NORTH...COULD SEE DZ FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL WITH
EAST WINDS. THIS CLOSES PHASE ONE OF THE SYSTEM. ONLY OTHER
ADJUSTMENT OF NOTE ON TUESDAY WAS TO LOWER TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR
20S TO LOWER 30S FOR CWA.
ON TO THE SECOND AND EVEN MORE COMPLEX PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY EVENING. SFC LOW WELL AGREED UPON AT
THIS TIME WITH CENTER VCNTY OF IOWA. THIS SYSTEM THEN BECOMES VERY
FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVY PRECIPIATION
ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. UPPER SUPPORT CERTAINLY THERE FM DIRECT IMPACT OF PVA/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS MAIN PV ANAMOLY LIFTS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS UPR MICHIGAN IS WITHIN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF JET STRONG JET NOSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
WHILE...MOISTURE INFLUX INTO SYSTEM IS NOTABLE WITH H85-H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED INTO THE REGION BOOSTING H7 MIXING RATIOS TO AROUND
3G/KG. 24HR QPF ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY HAVE BUMPED UP TO OVER 0.6
INCH AND EVEN PUSHED OVER 0.8 IF GOING WITH NAM. GIVEN THE PLETHORA
OF SUPPORT AND ENHANCEMENT TO THIS SYSTEM...THESE FORECASTS DO NOT
SEEM THAT OVERDONE. SFC LOW TRACKS TO CNTRL/NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN BY
12Z ON WEDNESDAY. WARM LAYER 900-850MB LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AT LEAST
IMPACT SOUTHEAST THIRD OF CWA LATE TUESDAY EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THINGS
TURN QUICKLY BACK TO SNOW EVEN IN THE EASTERN CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION OCCURS THEN THE WARMING TAKES PLACE...LEAVING LESS ROOM
FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. NAM/GFS SHOW WARM LAYER TEMPS UP TO
2-3C...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND LESS SLEET.
NAM FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH WARM LAYER AND WOULD BRING FZRA TO
IMT AND SAW AND EVEN CMX FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM
ALSO MUCH FARTHER WEST WITH H85 CIRCULATION AND BASED ON DPROG/DT
SEEMS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THUS WILL NOT BE
AS AGGRESSIVE/NORTHWEST WITH WARM LAYER AS NAM SHOWS ATTM. AT THE
SAME TIME...ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE WITH MAINLY A SNOWSTORM OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WARM LAYER IS SHUNTED TO THE EAST BEFORE MAKING IT
INTO SE CWA. GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/FZRA/PL
ONLY OVER FAR SE CWA. SYSTEM IS NOW ONSHORE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SO WE SHOULD START TO SEE ADJUSTMENTS TO TRACK AND EXTENT OF WARM
LAYER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HEADLINES...EVENT IS TRICKY...MAINLY DUE TO THE TWO MAIN TIME FRAMES
THAT THERE COULD BE HEAVIER SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX. SINCE THE TREND
IS FOR MORE SNOW ON TUESDAY OVER THE FAR WEST AND GRADIENT TO THE
SNOW COULD BE VERY SHARP /PERHAPS KEEPING MOST OF THIS INITIAL SNOW
OUT OF AREAS FARTHER INTO THE CNTRL CWA AS NAM AND OTHER HIGH RES
MODELS POINT TO/ THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WESTERN TIER
OF UPR MICHIGAN IN A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING 10Z TONIGHT AND
RUNNING THIS ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID NOT GO WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL WATCHES FARTHER TO THE EAST THOUGH SINCE SNOW OVER
THE CNTRL CWA AND WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/FZRA/PL FARTHER EAST DOES NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL LATER TUESDAY EVENING AND ON INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
EVERYTHING CONTINUES AS FORECAST WHICH IS A BIG IF AS MODEL SOLNS
MAY VERY WELL JOG AROUND FURTHER WILL EVENTUALLY NEED SOME HEADLINES
FOR REST OF CWA AS WELL. GOING TO ISSUE AN SPS SO THERE IS SOME
HEADS UP THAT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT
AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER. IF TIMING HOLDS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF BEING IMPACTED ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM WINDS DOWN...EXPECT SOME LGT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW LINGERING ALONG LK SUPERIOR FIRST THING ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE SCOURS OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
FRIDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH NOW...THOUGH MODELS HAVE BOUNCED
AROUND ON WHETHER TO BRING NORTHERN FRINGE INTO SOUTHERN CWA. COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER COLD SHOT OF
AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SEEMED GOOD FOR
SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO NE ONTARIO. S WINDS AND MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KIWD.
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO ALLOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER
MONDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT IWD AND CMX AROUND
15Z WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL EVENTUALLY REACH KSAW AFT 18Z. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SOME AT
THE WRN TAF SITES MON EVENING AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF WAA PCPN LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
S WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE UP TO 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES AND DEVELOPING LO PRES TO THE W IN THE PLAINS. AS
THIS LOW MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE INTO WED...LIKELY
PASSING JUST TO THE S OF UPPER MI...THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE E AND
THEN N BY WED...WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 30 KTS TO GALES TO 35
KTS ON WED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY THRU THU AS A
TRAILING HI PRES RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES. A STRONGER N WIND
UP TO 25-30 KTS MAY DEVELOP ON FRI AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE S THRU THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND AN
UPR RDG IN THE ROCKIES. SFC HI PRES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON
THE 00Z APX/GRB RAOBS /PWAT ARND 0.05 INCH/ ARE BRINGING A TRANQUIL
EARLY MRNG TO THE CWA...BUT HI CLDS ARE ON THE INCRS IN ADVANCE OF A
SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG WHICH IS DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS.
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SLY FLOW BTWN ACCOMPANYING SFC
LO/SE ONTARIO HI PRES AND SOME UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED
120KT H3 JET MAX CAUSING AN AREA OF SN OVER NRN MN. VSBYS IN THIS
AREA OF SN HAVE BEEN AS LO AS 1/2-3/4SM DESPITE FEED OF VERY DRY
LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION
AT 00Z WAS AN IMPRESSIVE 47C. ANOTHER MORE IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV APRCHG
THE PAC NW COAST IS CRASHING INTO THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL REVOLVE ARND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FALLING MSLP IN
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE W COAST.
TDAY...AREA OF SN NOW IN NRN MN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY 12Z
UNDER AREA OF IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280-
290K SFCS /H8-6/ AND AREA OF UPR DVGC. BUT VIGOROUS DRY SLOTTING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET SURGE AT THE SAME TIME THE JET CORE TENDS TO
SHEAR OUT/UPR DVGC WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS MORE CONFLUENT UPR FLOW ON
THE WRN FLANK OF CUTOFF LO IN THE CNDN MARITIMES SHOULD CAUSE THE
PCPN INTENSITY TO DIMINISH STEADILY AS THE AREA MOVES INTO THE DRIER
AIR TO THE E. ONE OTHER MECHANISM THAT WL TEND TO WEAKEN THE SN
MOVING THRU THE CWA IS H85-7 FRONTAL ZN THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN IN
NCENTRAL WI THIS AFTN AND FOCUS THE SHARPER UVV IN THAT AREA ON THE
SRN FLANK OF MID LVL DRY SLOTTING THAT WL IMPACT UPR MI. AS THE
SHARPER H7 FGEN SHIFTS TO THE E ACRS THE SCENTRL CWA LATER THIS
AFTN...SOME HIER POPS MAY IMPACT THAT AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SN
TOTALS...HIEST OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL...SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN
ABOUT AN INCH TDAY GIVEN THE NEGATIVES MENTIONED ABV AS WELL AS
IMPACTS OF DRY AIR.
TNGT...AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW DIGS THRU THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE PLAINS...STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW OVER THE UPR
LKS TO THE NE OF DVLPG SFC LO IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WL TEND TO LIFT
THE SHARPER H85-7 FGEN N INTO UPR MI. ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AT H85
WL TEND TO LIMIT SN CHCS OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...EXPECT INCRSG
POPS OVER THE W ESPECIALLY LATE...WHEN SOME UPR DVGC IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THAT AREA IN THE RRQ OF SHARPENING H3 JET MAX OVER LK SUP.
WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY APRCHG 3 G/KG...THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR
2 OF OF SN ACCUM OVER THE W IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME WHERE AND WHEN THE
FORCING LOOKS MORE FVRBL DESPITE UNFVRBL HIER...THIN DGZ.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT THE CWA...POSSIBLY BRINGING MIXED PRECIP AND SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO PARTS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR PRECIP WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS IS EXPECTED.
FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN FAIR AT BEST FOR MOST MODELS
AND MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT IS LIMITED. THE POOR CONTINUITY AND HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IS UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DRIVING THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK. MODEL TO MODEL
AGREEMENT IS NOT ALL THAT BAD IN GENERAL...BUT THE FINE DETAILS
NEEDED FOR PTYPE AND PRECIP AMOUNT FORECASTS ARE FAR FROM
SETTLED...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR WHERE THE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE MODEL SPREAD INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BETTER OBSERVATION
NETWORK OF THE PACIFIC NW CONUS ON MON. IN A TYPICAL SITUATION WITH
THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...SHOULD START SEEING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND
HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE TUE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LEEWARD OF THE
ROCKIES...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO A
STRONG RIDGE UP UNTIL THIS POINT...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW WELL IT DOES AFTER INTERACTING WITH THE RIDGE. MODELS SHOW
THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AFTER LEEWARD
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS E OF THE ROCKIES AND NRN/SRN JET STREAM
INTERACTION OCCURS ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXACTLY WHERE
AND TO WHAT MAGNITUDE THE LOW DEEPENS IS LESS AGREED ON BETWEEN THE
MODELS AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS ANYWAY. MODELS THEN
SHOW THE SFC LOW MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SOMETIME TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. THE 12Z/16 NAM IS FARTHEST NW WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW IN
BRINGING IT ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE 00Z/16 GLOBAL GEM
IS FARTHEST SE IN BRINGING IT FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO NEAR GAYLORD. THE
12Z/16 GFS BRINGS THE SFC LOW FROM NEAR MENOMINEE TO NEAR
NEWBERRY...WHILE THE 00Z/16 ECMWF IS FROM MILWAUKEE TO NEAR THE SOO.
WHILE A MIDDLE OF THE GROUND APPROACH IS CERTAINLY A REASONABLE
APPROACH FOR THE FORECAST...AT THIS POINT IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO
PREFER ANY ONE SOLUTION OVER ANOTHER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ALREADY
DISCUSSED. THE POSSIBILITIES FOR THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM LEAD TO
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE PTYPE AND PRECIP AMOUNT...WITH THE
FARTHER S SOLUTION OF THE GEM FAVORING MORE SNOW BOTH AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE FGEN AREA THAT ALL MODELS SHOW
TO THE N/NE OF THE SYSTEM. THE FARTHER N SOLUTION OF THE NAM WOULD
RESULT IN LESS OVERALL PRECIP AND MORE OF THAT BEING MIXED OR ALL
LIQUID. THE CONSENSUS APPROACH LEADS TO MIXED PRECIP OVER THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND MORE SNOW OVER THE NWRN CWA. AGAIN...THESE
DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COULD NOT
FIND SIGNIFICANT JUSTIFICATION TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. IT REMAINS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION BUT DETAILS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. DEFINITELY A TRICKY FORECAST THAT WILL HAVE TO BE FINE
TUNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO NE ONTARIO. S WINDS AND MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KIWD.
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO ALLOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER
MONDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT IWD AND CMX AROUND
15Z WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL EVENTUALLY REACH KSAW AFT 18Z. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SOME AT
THE WRN TAF SITES MON EVENING AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF WAA PCPN LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
S WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE UP TO 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES AND DEVELOPING LO PRES TO THE W IN THE PLAINS. AS
THIS LOW MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE INTO WED...LIKELY
PASSING JUST TO THE S OF UPPER MI...THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE E AND
THEN N BY WED...WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 30 KTS TO GALES TO 35
KTS ON WED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY THRU THU AS A
TRAILING HI PRES RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES. A STRONGER N WIND
UP TO 25-30 KTS MAY DEVELOP ON FRI AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE S THRU THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1142 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
A STRONG AREA OF WAA CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH SOME LIGHT LES ALSO OCCURRING TOWARD
KCKC. WE WILL UPDATE GRIDS SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS
TONIGHT. WE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ON MONDAY AS MORE
OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT BRINGING ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO AROUND PARK
FALLS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
AN AREA OF SNOW WAS MOVING QUICKLY WEST TO EAST THROUGH WESTERN
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. WE HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS BAND...WHICH WAS LARGELY BEING FORCED BY STRONG
WAA. WE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR CLOUD COVER AS WELL.
WE DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PERIODS AT THIS TIME. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND COULD RECEIVE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND THE 18Z NAM CAME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. THESE SOLUTIONS PUT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW...OVER 8 INCHES...FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL AS
EXTREME NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ECMWF ALSO CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER WITH ITS
SNOWFALL FORECAST. THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY HAS KEPT US FROM ISSUING
A WATCH AND WE WILL MOST LIKELY WAIT FOR THE 00Z MODELS BEFORE
DECIDING ON ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS MOVING
NE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH ND. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH ITS`
SURFACE REFLECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF
ND WITH SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW HITTING THE GROUND. THE MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 03Z...AND GNA/ASX BY 10Z. DUE TO SOME FRONTOGENESIS
ACROSS THE AREA...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BEFORE
ENDING WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY MORNING IN NE MN/NW WI EXCEPT THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE THERE WILL BE AROUND AN INCH MORE DUE TO TERRAIN
LIFT.
THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 210 IN
NE MN AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 IN NW WI. ABOUT AN INCH WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
LONG TERM....MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
FOCUS ON A WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF OF THE PACIFIC COAST. LATEST GFS/ECM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE MAKES LANDFALL
OVERNIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MONDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR IDEA THAT A VORT/H85 LOW
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA MONDAY
NIGHT...WHILE LIFTING A WARM FRONT OVER MN/WI. THIS LOW THEN DEEPENS
INTO A CLOSED H50 LOW AS IT ROTATES TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING AND PWATS AROUND A HALF INCH...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6-8"
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE LOW
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ALL OVER BOARD WITH THE LOW
TRACK...WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON
PTYPE/SN AMOUNTS. AN ENSEMBLE CLUSTER PLOT OF THE LOW TRACK ISSUED
BY THE WPC SHOWS VARIANCE IN THE LOW POSITION TUESDAY ANYWHERE FROM
NRN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN IOWA. WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING A
WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
STORM TRACK.
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST...CONTINUING TO
WEIGH THE POPS/QPF/SN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECM.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE/NRN WISC ZONES THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
HOW WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE. AN AREA OF SNOW WAS
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO MANITOBA IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG WAA. THE BAND OF SNOW WAS MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A RATHER NARROW BAND OF
SNOW WITH A 1-2 HOUR SPAN OF LOW VSBYS/CEILINGS. WE WILL REFINE
THE TIMING IN THE TAFS AS THIS BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THE COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
LIMITED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE BAND OF SNOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 14 28 21 31 / 60 50 50 80
INL 15 34 19 30 / 80 40 40 60
BRD 18 36 26 32 / 40 40 60 80
HYR 11 30 22 37 / 50 50 10 40
ASX 11 29 22 35 / 50 60 30 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ROSEAU-WARROAD AREA WITH SNOW JUST
ABUOT OVER. WILL END SNOW IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AROUND 07Z. RUC AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS CORRECTING SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP STREAKING FROM WILLISTON-WATFORD CITY ND AREA
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN. SO ADJUSTED POPS FOR
THIS. DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER MEANS NOT MUCH MEASURABLE HITTING THE
GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES/PHASE AND WIND SPEED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN PRECIP TIMING/LOCATION/
PHASE AND AMOUNTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
RAP/HRRR FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND THEN FOCUS ON A BLENDED
SOLUTION BETWEEN THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF. WILL IGNORE THE NAM GIVEN
ITS EXTREME NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH THE GEM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF.
20 UTC RADAR DEPICTS A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP FROM LANGDON TO
CARRINGTON. STARTING TO SEE A FEW SFC REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AT
BRANDON MANITOBA AND ROLLA...BUT LATEST DVL LAPS SOUNDING STILL
SHOWING A DRY SFC TO 700 HPA DRY LAYER. WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST
MN. BY MONDAY MORNING...NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 0.5 TO 1.5
STILL SEEM REASONABLE. THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A SNOW/
FREEZING RAIN MIX AS WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT...BUT THINK ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND AND THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. STILL EXPECT SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HALLOCK TO ROSEAU TO THIEF RIVER FALLS CORRIDOR. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF GIVEN FORWARD SPEED OF THE
SNOW...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH OBSERVATIONS CAREFULLY FOR A
POSSIBLE ADVISORY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WEST TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE EAST.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK IS FROM NORTHERN MT MONDAY MORNING TO ALONG THE SD/NE
BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO IA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE MOVED THE MAIN PRECIP
SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A RESULT
OF A WEAKER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.
PRECIP LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON ONCE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT/FRONTOGENESIS BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...WILL RESULT
IN A WINTRY MIX IF NOT PURE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR WITH SNOW CHANCES FARTHER
NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 35
ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND. PRECIP TO
SLOWLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS SUB FREEZING AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP/SLICK CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT QUESTIONS
REMAIN AS TO WHERE THE PRIMARY DEFORMATION SNOW AXIS WILL SET-UP.
GFS DEPICTS IT ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST OF PIERRE SD TO
ALEXANDRIA MN WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN
THESE LOCATIONS AND THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL MISS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR 3-4 PLUS INCHES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM FORMAN TO MAHNOMEN TO BAUDETTE.
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND TRENDS PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR A
WATCH...BUT WILL KEEP SPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND REMOVE IT ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND BREAK UP
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 30S.
FOR WED NIGHT-SUN...THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL...COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT SAT. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SORT OF A WEAK HYBRID LOW AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE SOME LOWER POPS. A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD BE COLD. HAVE STARTED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS FOR SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
FOR THE MOST PART KEEPING VFR CIGS THRU THE PD. SOUTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS LOW ORGANIZES TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH MONDAY
AFTN. MODELS MOS FCSTS WANT TO BRING DOWN CIGS BUT DONT SEE THAT
MUCH SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THRU MONDAY EVE BUT DID GO INTO
LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS TOWARD 00Z TUE. WINDS WILL PICK
UP FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY 00Z TUES. KEPT TAF SITES DRY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1120 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH INVERTED TROUGH
RUNNING UP THROUGH THE SMOKIES. MID STATE ON NORTH SIDE OF LOW
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT RATHER TIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT AND GUSTY AT TIMES. THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
BELIEVE PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART WILL LIGHT AND LIQUID BUT
CLARKSVILLE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER
10Z. RUC FORECAST SOUNDING FOR CLARKSVILLE SHOWING WARM NOSE HAS
COOLED TO 1.6 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH SURFACE TEMPS RIGHT AT
FREEZING AND PROBABLY BELOW BY 10Z.. MOISTURE IS 200 MBARS DEEP OFF
SURFACE SO THINK THIS WILL BE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS OPPOSED TO
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHICH WOULD NEED A LITTLE MORE DEPTH TO THE
MOISTURE. WARM NOSE AT NASHVILLE IS QUITE A BIT WARMER AT 3.5
DEGREES WITH SURFACE TEMPS FORECAST TO GO TO ABOUT 32 DEGREES LATE
NIGHT...AM LOOKING FOR ALL LIQUID LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR NASHVILLE.
CROSSVILLE`S SOUNDING IS MUCH WARMER SO ALL LIQUID IS FORECAST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FIRST AT CLARKSVILLE MONDAY MORNING AND
TRANSLATE EASTWARD AS THE DAY MOVES ALONG. SLUGGISH SURFACE SYSTEM
NOT IN ANY HURRY TO PULL OUT AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOLD
BACK MAKING LITTLE OR NO PROGRESS ON MY SHIFT THIS EVENING.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
922 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW
ENGLAND WILL PUSH COLD AIR SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH OF THE AREA HAD LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THE HRRR
AND RAP INDICATED COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT MOVING INTO THE AREA. COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS
RIDGING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL
LIQUID WITH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AND TRACKS
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY EVENING...BUT POPS
DECREASE THROUGH THE THE NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL FROM AROUND AN INCH AT 00Z TO AROUND
0.60 BY 12Z TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN COLD IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TO AROUND 40 IN THE CSRA.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRY TO HINT AT SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
AND CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE
1KFT-5KFT LAYER AND TYPICALLY MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE WEDGE TOO
SOON. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE KEEPING HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BRIEFLY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS BUT VERY LITTLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY TO REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST THEN UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY SATURDAY.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING
850MB FLOW AIDING IN THE CONTINUING WARMING OF TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW WITH A 30-40 KNOT JET WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE. SATURDAY FIGURES TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A
COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT IS SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL IS NOW EAST OF ALL TERMINALS...WITH MAINLY
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAINFALL...OR MAINLY LIGHT DRIZZLE BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE MOVES IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1027 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL FORECAST BY RECENT STANDARDS AS A PROGRESSIVE
QUASIZONAL PATTERN WITH A FEW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL GOVERN THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
SATELLITE SHOWS NORTHWEST FRINGES OF LOW CLOUD DECK IS STARTING TO
THIN...SO CLOUDS SHOULD START BREAKING UP SOON IN THOSE AREAS. CLOUD
SHIELD FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS THICKER...SO IT MAY BE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THOSE AREAS.
WILL LOWER THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THE LONGEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
NO SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS...BASED ON 850 TEMPS/THICKNESSES AND UPSTREAM
NUMBERS...ACTUALLY DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB. THIS GIVES UPPER 30S FAR
NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWINGING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES MID
WEEK...BUT THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THUS...EXPECT ONLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
K INDICES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS UNLIKELY...ALTHOUGH A
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.
ON TEMPS...ADJUSTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY IN
STRONG PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION...AND ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE
PROGRESSION APPEARS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD ANTICIPATED AS A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER AIR WILL
BE DRAWN NORTH FOR FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
MIXING SHOULD ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING ON TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS
RATHER PALTRY AT THIS POINT.
DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK MAINLY INTO THE 40S BY
SUNDAY WITH SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS EVEN COOLER WEATHER COMING NEXT
WEEK. SPRING REMAINS ELUSIVE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
STRATUS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT
THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT COULD
PERSIST THROUGH 18Z BEFORE BREAKING IT UP. THUS KIND UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS CHANGE. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KLAF THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION HAS ENABLED MVFR STRATUS DECK TO EXPAND BACK NORTHWEST
TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE LOWER CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL MORNING AS RAP RH PROGS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL CLOSER
TO MIDDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH PERIODIC
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. E/NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5KTS AND BECOME VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
952 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL FORECAST BY RECENT STANDARDS AS A PROGRESSIVE
QUASIZONAL PATTERN WITH A FEW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL GOVERN THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
SATELLITE SHOWS NORTHWEST FRINGES OF LOW CLOUD DECK IS STARTING TO
THIN...SO CLOUDS SHOULD START BREAKING UP SOON IN THOSE AREAS. CLOUD
SHIELD FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS THICKER...SO IT MAY BE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS BREAK UP IN THOSE AREAS.
WILL LOWER THE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THE LONGEST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
NO SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS...BASED ON 850 TEMPS/THICKNESSES AND UPSTREAM
NUMBERS...ACTUALLY DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB. THIS GIVES UPPER 30S FAR
NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWINGING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES MID
WEEK...BUT THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THUS...EXPECT ONLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
K INDICES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS UNLIKELY...ALTHOUGH A
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.
ON TEMPS...ADJUSTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY IN
STRONG PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION...AND ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE
PROGRESSION APPEARS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD ANTICIPATED AS A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER AIR WILL
BE DRAWN NORTH FOR FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
MIXING SHOULD ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING ON TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS
RATHER PALTRY AT THIS POINT.
DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK MAINLY INTO THE 40S BY
SUNDAY WITH SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS EVEN COOLER WEATHER COMING NEXT
WEEK. SPRING REMAINS ELUSIVE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KLAF THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION HAS ENABLED MVFR STRATUS DECK TO EXPAND BACK NORTHWEST
TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE LOWER CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL MORNING AS RAP RH PROGS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL CLOSER
TO MIDDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH PERIODIC
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. E/NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5KTS AND BECOME VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
654 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL FORECAST BY RECENT STANDARDS AS A PROGRESSIVE
QUASIZONAL PATTERN WITH A FEW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL GOVERN THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
NO SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS...BASED ON 850 TEMPS/THICKNESSES AND UPSTREAM
NUMBERS...ACTUALLY DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB. THIS GIVES UPPER 30S FAR
NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWINGING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES MID
WEEK...BUT THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THUS...EXPECT ONLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
K INDICES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS UNLIKELY...ALTHOUGH A
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.
ON TEMPS...ADJUSTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY IN
STRONG PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION...AND ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE
PROGRESSION APPEARS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD ANTICIPATED AS A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER AIR WILL
BE DRAWN NORTH FOR FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
MIXING SHOULD ENABLE HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL CONSENSUS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING ON TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS
RATHER PALTRY AT THIS POINT.
DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK MAINLY INTO THE 40S BY
SUNDAY WITH SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS EVEN COOLER WEATHER COMING NEXT
WEEK. SPRING REMAINS ELUSIVE AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KLAF THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION HAS ENABLED MVFR STRATUS DECK TO EXPAND BACK NORTHWEST
TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE LOWER CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL MORNING AS RAP RH PROGS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL CLOSER
TO MIDDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH PERIODIC
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. E/NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5KTS AND BECOME VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND AN
UPR RDG IN THE ROCKIES. SFC HI PRES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON
THE 00Z APX/GRB RAOBS /PWAT ARND 0.05 INCH/ ARE BRINGING A TRANQUIL
EARLY MRNG TO THE CWA...BUT HI CLDS ARE ON THE INCRS IN ADVANCE OF A
SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG WHICH IS DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS.
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SLY FLOW BTWN ACCOMPANYING SFC
LO/SE ONTARIO HI PRES AND SOME UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED
120KT H3 JET MAX CAUSING AN AREA OF SN OVER NRN MN. VSBYS IN THIS
AREA OF SN HAVE BEEN AS LO AS 1/2-3/4SM DESPITE FEED OF VERY DRY
LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION
AT 00Z WAS AN IMPRESSIVE 47C. ANOTHER MORE IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV APRCHG
THE PAC NW COAST IS CRASHING INTO THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL REVOLVE ARND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FALLING MSLP IN
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE W COAST.
TDAY...AREA OF SN NOW IN NRN MN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY 12Z
UNDER AREA OF IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280-
290K SFCS /H8-6/ AND AREA OF UPR DVGC. BUT VIGOROUS DRY SLOTTING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET SURGE AT THE SAME TIME THE JET CORE TENDS TO
SHEAR OUT/UPR DVGC WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS MORE CONFLUENT UPR FLOW ON
THE WRN FLANK OF CUTOFF LO IN THE CNDN MARITIMES SHOULD CAUSE THE
PCPN INTENSITY TO DIMINISH STEADILY AS THE AREA MOVES INTO THE DRIER
AIR TO THE E. ONE OTHER MECHANISM THAT WL TEND TO WEAKEN THE SN
MOVING THRU THE CWA IS H85-7 FRONTAL ZN THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN IN
NCENTRAL WI THIS AFTN AND FOCUS THE SHARPER UVV IN THAT AREA ON THE
SRN FLANK OF MID LVL DRY SLOTTING THAT WL IMPACT UPR MI. AS THE
SHARPER H7 FGEN SHIFTS TO THE E ACRS THE SCENTRL CWA LATER THIS
AFTN...SOME HIER POPS MAY IMPACT THAT AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SN
TOTALS...HIEST OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL...SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN
ABOUT AN INCH TDAY GIVEN THE NEGATIVES MENTIONED ABV AS WELL AS
IMPACTS OF DRY AIR.
TNGT...AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW DIGS THRU THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE PLAINS...STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW OVER THE UPR
LKS TO THE NE OF DVLPG SFC LO IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WL TEND TO LIFT
THE SHARPER H85-7 FGEN N INTO UPR MI. ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AT H85
WL TEND TO LIMIT SN CHCS OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...EXPECT INCRSG
POPS OVER THE W ESPECIALLY LATE...WHEN SOME UPR DVGC IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THAT AREA IN THE RRQ OF SHARPENING H3 JET MAX OVER LK SUP.
WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY APRCHG 3 G/KG...THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR
2 OF OF SN ACCUM OVER THE W IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME WHERE AND WHEN THE
FORCING LOOKS MORE FVRBL DESPITE UNFVRBL HIER...THIN DGZ.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
...COMPLEX AND POSSIBLY MULTI FACETED WINTER STORM TO AFFECT UPR
MICHIGAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SFC LOW IN THE VCNTY OF EASTERN NEB INTO KS. H85 LOW IN SIMILAR POSN
WITH SOUTH WINDS DRAWING WARM AIR TOWARD UPR LAKES. AREA OF H8-H6
FGEN OVER UPR MICHIGAN WILL FOCUS SWATH OF SNOW 12Z-18Z ON TUESDAY.
DRYING NOSING IN FROM SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SHARP EDGE TO THE SNOW.
NAM/GFS AND GEM-NH HAVE TRENDED WITH FARTHER SOUTH H85 BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND THUS MORE QPF DURING THE MORNING HOURS THAN THEY PREVIOUSLY
SHOWED. DECENT MOISTURE IS ADVECTING INTO THE FGEN BAND WITH H7
MIXING RATIOS AROUND 3G/KG PER ECMWF. BY TUESDAY AFTN...MOST MODELS
SHOW FGEN SNOW BAND LIFTING NORTH AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE AS MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXITS NORTH...COULD SEE DZ FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL WITH
EAST WINDS. THIS CLOSES PHASE ONE OF THE SYSTEM. ONLY OTHER
ADJUSTMENT OF NOTE ON TUESDAY WAS TO LOWER TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR
20S TO LOWER 30S FOR CWA.
ON TO THE SECOND AND EVEN MORE COMPLEX PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY EVENING. SFC LOW WELL AGREED UPON AT
THIS TIME WITH CENTER VCNTY OF IOWA. THIS SYSTEM THEN BECOMES VERY
FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVY PRECIPIATION
ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. UPPER SUPPORT CERTAINLY THERE FM DIRECT IMPACT OF PVA/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS MAIN PV ANAMOLY LIFTS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS UPR MICHIGAN IS WITHIN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF JET STRONG JET NOSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
WHILE...MOISTURE INFLUX INTO SYSTEM IS NOTABLE WITH H85-H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED INTO THE REGION BOOSTING H7 MIXING RATIOS TO AROUND
3G/KG. 24HR QPF ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY HAVE BUMPED UP TO OVER 0.6
INCH AND EVEN PUSHED OVER 0.8 IF GOING WITH NAM. GIVEN THE PLETHORA
OF SUPPORT AND ENHANCEMENT TO THIS SYSTEM...THESE FORECASTS DO NOT
SEEM THAT OVERDONE. SFC LOW TRACKS TO CNTRL/NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN BY
12Z ON WEDNESDAY. WARM LAYER 900-850MB LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AT LEAST
IMPACT SOUTHEAST THIRD OF CWA LATE TUESDAY EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THINGS
TURN QUICKLY BACK TO SNOW EVEN IN THE EASTERN CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION OCCURS THEN THE WARMING TAKES PLACE...LEAVING LESS ROOM
FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. NAM/GFS SHOW WARM LAYER TEMPS UP TO
2-3C...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND LESS SLEET.
NAM FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH WARM LAYER AND WOULD BRING FZRA TO
IMT AND SAW AND EVEN CMX FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM
ALSO MUCH FARTHER WEST WITH H85 CIRCULATION AND BASED ON DPROG/DT
SEEMS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THUS WILL NOT BE
AS AGGRESSIVE/NORTHWEST WITH WARM LAYER AS NAM SHOWS ATTM. AT THE
SAME TIME...ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE WITH MAINLY A SNOWSTORM OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WARM LAYER IS SHUNTED TO THE EAST BEFORE MAKING IT
INTO SE CWA. GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/FZRA/PL
ONLY OVER FAR SE CWA. SYSTEM IS NOW ONSHORE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SO WE SHOULD START TO SEE ADJUSTMENTS TO TRACK AND EXTENT OF WARM
LAYER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HEADLINES...EVENT IS TRICKY...MAINLY DUE TO THE TWO MAIN TIME FRAMES
THAT THERE COULD BE HEAVIER SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX. SINCE THE TREND
IS FOR MORE SNOW ON TUESDAY OVER THE FAR WEST AND GRADIENT TO THE
SNOW COULD BE VERY SHARP /PERHAPS KEEPING MOST OF THIS INITIAL SNOW
OUT OF AREAS FARTHER INTO THE CNTRL CWA AS NAM AND OTHER HIGH RES
MODELS POINT TO/ THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WESTERN TIER
OF UPR MICHIGAN IN A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING 10Z TONIGHT AND
RUNNING THIS ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID NOT GO WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL WATCHES FARTHER TO THE EAST THOUGH SINCE SNOW OVER
THE CNTRL CWA AND WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/FZRA/PL FARTHER EAST DOES NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL LATER TUESDAY EVENING AND ON INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
EVERYTHING CONTINUES AS FORECAST WHICH IS A BIG IF AS MODEL SOLNS
MAY VERY WELL JOG AROUND FURTHER WILL EVENTUALLY NEED SOME HEADLINES
FOR REST OF CWA AS WELL. GOING TO ISSUE AN SPS SO THERE IS SOME
HEADS UP THAT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT
AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER. IF TIMING HOLDS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF BEING IMPACTED ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM WINDS DOWN...EXPECT SOME LGT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW LINGERING ALONG LK SUPERIOR FIRST THING ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE SCOURS OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
FRIDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH NOW...THOUGH MODELS HAVE BOUNCED
AROUND ON WHETHER TO BRING NORTHERN FRINGE INTO SOUTHERN CWA. COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER COLD SHOT OF
AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SEEMED GOOD FOR
SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
ALTHOUGH SOME -SN MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY CAUSE SOME OCNL MVFR
VSBYS AT IWD/CMX THRU THIS MRNG...DRYNESS OF ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND
TENDENCY FOR DYNAMIC FORCING TO WEAKEN WITH TIME WL CAUSE
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE DAY WITH DOWNSLOPE SSE FLOW.
ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR WL LIKELY EVAPORATE THE BULK OF THIS PCPN
BEFORE IT REACHES SAW...A MORE FVRBL...GUSTY UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT
WL LIKELY CAUSE SOME MVFR CIGS AT THAT LOCATION THIS AFTN THRU THE
NGT. LATER TNGT...SOME HEAVIER WAD SN WL ARRIVE OVER FAR WRN UPR MI
AND DROP THE VSBY AT IWD INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
S WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE UP TO 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES AND DEVELOPING LO PRES TO THE W IN THE PLAINS. AS
THIS LOW MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE INTO WED...LIKELY
PASSING JUST TO THE S OF UPPER MI...THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE E AND
THEN N BY WED...WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 30 KTS TO GALES TO 35
KTS ON WED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY THRU THU AS A
TRAILING HI PRES RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES. A STRONGER N WIND
UP TO 25-30 KTS MAY DEVELOP ON FRI AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE S THRU THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1006 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FARTHER SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WOULD SUGGEST.
AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TREND DRYER FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM BURKE AND WARD COUNTIES EAST TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION.
ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SCATTERED MORNING SPRINKLES OVER
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ALL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TODAY. AS A RESULT...REMOVED MENTION OF A WINTRY MIX
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FROM TODAY`S FORECAST.
FURTHERMORE...IF THE WEAKER/FARTHER SOUTH TREND CONTINUES WITH THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EFFECT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A LOT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE 12Z RUNS ARE IN TO MAKE A NEW SNOW FORECAST...BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL BE LESS THAN 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE LATEST RAP / HRRR SUGGESTING THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS GENERAL IDEA...HAVE DECREASED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT RAMP THEM UP AGAIN
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN POPS COULD BE TOO HIGH
IN THE NORTH IF THE DEFORMATION AXIS / PRECIPITATION SETS UP AS
PER THE RAP...AND ALREADY DECIDED TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
REFLECT THAT AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE PRECIP TYPES
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENT PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE SOUTHEAST TO BISMARCK TO LINTON/ELLENDALE. WARM ADVECTION
BEHIND A WARM FRONT WAS KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION WAS MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SUSPECT A FEW SPOTS OF FREEZING RAIN - THOUGH NOTHING
WIDESPREAD.
CONFIDENCE IN MORNING/AFTERNOON TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN IS
LOW...BUT MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
DEVELOP FROM MONTANA EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...DEVELOPING
NORTH OF A LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
MAINLY RAIN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH AND TO THE LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE...COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL BE PULLED INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...AND RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
NORTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING SOUTH. EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS
LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FOR THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
THIS TRANSLATES TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED INTO
IOWA/NEBRASKA AND MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS TUESDAY WILL HAVE JUST A CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE PASSING OF SEVERAL UPPER
WAVES...EACH OF WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES ALREADY TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...AND THEN CROSSES THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE POTENTIALLY STRONGEST WAVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IN THE THURSDAY / FRIDAY TIME FRAME...HOWEVER
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING
THE TIMING. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH FOR POPS WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY...LASTING
INTO FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
REGARDING POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TYPES...OVERALL FAVORED SNOW...BUT
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYTIME COULD LEAD TO RAIN AT TIMES
MIXING IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
LIGHT RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR KISN
AND SPREAD TO KMOT/KBIS/KDIK BY 18Z...AND TO KJMS BY 00Z. RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AT KMOT/KISN AROUND 21-00Z AND AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS
00-02Z. MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES AFT 00Z. CIGS BECOMING IFR AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS WITH LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
NOTE...ICE IS AFFECTING MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS AND UNTIL THAT ICE
CLEARS...SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS ARE LIKELY.
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS...IN THE MISSOURI
RIVER BASIN...
THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR WILLISTON AFFECTING WILLIAMS AND MCKENZIE
COUNTIES. MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THE RIVER NEAR WILLISTON BECOMES FREE OF ICE.
IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...
SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY. MINOR FLOODING
IS FORECAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...TM/AJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
712 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE LATEST RAP / HRRR SUGGESTING THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS GENERAL IDEA...HAVE DECREASED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT RAMP THEM UP AGAIN
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN POPS COULD BE TOO HIGH
IN THE NORTH IF THE DEFORMATION AXIS / PRECIPITATION SETS UP AS
PER THE RAP...AND ALREADY DECIDED TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
REFLECT THAT AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE PRECIP TYPES
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENT PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE SOUTHEAST TO BISMARCK TO LINTON/ELLENDALE. WARM ADVECTION
BEHIND A WARM FRONT WAS KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION WAS MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SUSPECT A FEW SPOTS OF FREEZING RAIN - THOUGH NOTHING
WIDESPREAD.
CONFIDENCE IN MORNING/AFTERNOON TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN IS
LOW...BUT MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
DEVELOP FROM MONTANA EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...DEVELOPING
NORTH OF A LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
MAINLY RAIN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH AND TO THE LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE...COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL BE PULLED INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...AND RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
NORTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING SOUTH. EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS
LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FOR THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
THIS TRANSLATES TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED INTO
IOWA/NEBRASKA AND MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS TUESDAY WILL HAVE JUST A CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE PASSING OF SEVERAL UPPER
WAVES...EACH OF WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES ALREADY TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...AND THEN CROSSES THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE POTENTIALLY STRONGEST WAVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IN THE THURSDAY / FRIDAY TIME FRAME...HOWEVER
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING
THE TIMING. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH FOR POPS WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY...LASTING
INTO FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
REGARDING POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TYPES...OVERALL FAVORED SNOW...BUT
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYTIME COULD LEAD TO RAIN AT TIMES
MIXING IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
LIGHT RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR KISN
AND SPREAD TO KMOT/KBIS/KDIK BY 18Z...AND TO KJMS BY 00Z. RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AT KMOT/KISN AROUND 21-00Z AND AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS
00-02Z. MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES AFT 00Z. CIGS BECOMING IFR AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS WITH LIGHT SNOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
NOTE...ICE IS AFFECTING MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS AND UNTIL THAT ICE
CLEARS...SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS ARE LIKELY.
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS...IN THE MISSOURI
RIVER BASIN...
THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR WILLISTON AFFECTING WILLIAMS AND MCKENZIE
COUNTIES. MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THE RIVER NEAR WILLISTON BECOMES FREE OF ICE.
IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...
SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY. MINOR FLOODING
IS FORECAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...TM/AJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
723 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PUSHING A BIT FURTHER TO THE
EAST PER THE 17.11Z RAP WHICH TAKES A +1C TO +3C WARM NOSE AROUND
800MB INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SO FAR...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
SNOW IN SC MN...RATHER SLEET/UP WHERE THIS WARM LAYER IS IN PLACE.
FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR...AS NOTED ON THE 17.12Z MPX RAOB...BETWEEN 850-700MB HAS KEPT
ANY OF THE SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF RADAR RETURNS PICKING UP ON THE MID LEVEL PRECIP. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LAYER SHOULD START TO SATURATE OUT
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MORE POTENT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
THE WARM NOSE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE DONE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND ALSO
ADD IN SOME SLEET TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST
IOWA THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF I-94
TODAY...THEN FOCUS TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING A GOOD STREAM OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION MID-CLOUD PUSHING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
WARM FRONT. RADAR MOSAIC WAS SHOWING SOME ECHOES OUT OF THIS CLOUD
ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT NOTHING FALLING AT GROUND LEVEL DUE TO
DRIER LOWER LEVELS. ALSO...FARTHER UPSTREAM...RADAR MOSAIC WAS
SHOWING AN INCREASING BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ND IN STRONGER WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94 THIS MORNING. MORE
ON THIS LATER. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS HAVE
PRETTY MUCH SHUT DOWN THE TEMPERATURE SLIDE OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES.
FOR TODAY...LOOKING FOR THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN/U.S BORDER...PUSHING A WARM FRONT TO INTO THE REGION
TODAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FAIRLY STRONG 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND WARM FRONT DEPICTED BY
THE RAP/NAM...MOVES INTO AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 THIS MORNING.
THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 THIS MORNING...LASTING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...FAIRLY CONFIDENT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
FALL IN THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHER-END AMOUNTS FOCUSED ACROSS
CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS FORCING CLOSELY FOR
SNOWBURST POTENTIAL WHICH COULD LAY DOWN LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
WHICH MAY WARRANT HEADLINES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 30 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WI...TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE MONITORING STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT.
FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ON TUESDAY...THE DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IA WITH
MAIN DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SETTING UP ACROSS NEB INTO NORTHERN
MN. MODELS SHOWING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION
IN ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
MAIN CONCERN IS ON THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND STRONG
WIND.
MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE DEEP SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO UPPER MI DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD KEEP WARMER AIR WRAPPED INTO OUR AREA FOR A SLOWER TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. RIGHT NOW...MORE CONFIDENT ON
HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETTING UP FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MN...BUT WILL OF COURSE HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THE MODEL TREND FOR THE EXACT TRACK. ANY SHIFT WITH THE TRACK
FARTHER SOUTHEAST COULD EASILY SHIFT THE HEAVIER SNOW INTO OUR AREA.
OTHER FACET OF THIS STORM WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH IN THE MORE WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS
MAY WARRANT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES...OR COULD BE WINTER
HEADLINES IF HEAVIER SNOWFALL MATERIALIZES WITH THE WINDS.
LOOKS LIKE A QUIET BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MODELS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH FRONTOGENETICALLY-FORCED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SETTING UP ACROSS
THE AREA. COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...GOING
OVER TO SNOW LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND BACK TO RAIN WITH WARMING ON
FRIDAY INTO THE MID 30S/LOWER 40S.
MODELS THEN SHOWING A COLD SIGNAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. LOOKS
LIKE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
LOOKING TO TOP OFF IN THE 20S AND 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF SNOW THAT MAY
COME THROUGH THE TAF SITES. THIS AREA OF FOCUS IS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT MUCH OF IT HAS YET TO REACH
THE GROUND OR CAUSE ANY LOWER CEILINGS/VIS. FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND START
REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT VERY HIGH IN THIS OCCURRING WITH HOW THE DRY AIR HAS BEEN
HOLDING THE SNOW BACK SO FAR. SHOULD THE SNOW DEVELOP...SOME OFF
AND ON DROPS TO MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN
8-10KFT WITH WINDS STAYING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND BEING GUSTY AT
20-30KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIAMI FL
605 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SLOWLY WEAKENED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE
CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY. SO WILL LOWER THE POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
EVENING...BUT KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT BRINGING A LOW TO MID
LEVEL OF 50 KNOTS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS JET COULD HELP
REGENERATE THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS TO
THE AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AN INTERESTING EVENING/NIGHT IS AHEAD OF US. A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN US WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO MOVE APPROACH OUR AREA
THIS EVENING. THESE FEATURES WERE WELL DEPICTED BY ALL GUIDANCE
THIS MORNING. STRONG STORMS...A FEW MAY BY SEVERE...ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THE MAIN SOURCE OF ENERGY REMAINING ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THEREFORE EXPECT THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
NORTH FROM OUR AREA. DESPITE THAT...THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW A LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS OUR AREA AND UPPER LEVEL JET WITH ASSOCIATED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...THEREFORE DAMAGING STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS COULD
BE GENERATED WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
CONVERSELY...THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODEL RUNS
DEPICT A LESS ACTIVE LINE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER TRAVERSING THE MAINLAND TOWARD
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. BUT AFTER ANALYZING ALL THE
OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS AVAILABLE AT THIS POINT...STILL CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID-
WEEK PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE PENINSULA SOMETIME
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW FOR NOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION...
THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE ANTICIPATED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH
TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 00Z. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE OCCURRENCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN AT ANY TIME BUT IN TAF`S
ASSIGNED ALL TERMINALS VCTS AT 20Z AND CONTINUING AT 00Z. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.
WITH THAT IN MIND AND CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY...MOST OF THE
TAF`S END AT 00Z WITH VCTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE GREATEST THREAT ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE TIMING OF ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE LATE EVENING
AND OVER NIGHT.
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL QUICKLY TREND DOWN THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 81 68 82 / 70 40 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 81 69 82 / 70 40 10 10
MIAMI 75 82 69 83 / 70 40 10 10
NAPLES 70 79 61 84 / 60 10 0 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
334 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AN INTERESTING EVENING/NIGHT IS AHEAD OF US. A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN US WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST...WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO MOVE APPROACH OUR AREA
THIS EVENING. THESE FEATURES WERE WELL DEPICTED BY ALL GUIDANCE
THIS MORNING. STRONG STORMS...A FEW MAY BY SEVERE...ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THE MAIN SOURCE OF ENERGY REMAINING ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THEREFORE EXPECT THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
NORTH FROM OUR AREA. DESPITE THAT...THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW A LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS OUR AREA AND UPPER LEVEL JET WITH ASSOCIATED
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...THEREFORE DAMAGING STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS COULD
BE GENERATED WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
CONVERSELY...THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODEL RUNS
DEPICT A LESS ACTIVE LINE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER TRAVERSING THE MAINLAND TOWARD
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. BUT AFTER ANALYZING ALL THE
OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS AVAILABLE AT THIS POINT...STILL CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID-
WEEK PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE PENINSULA SOMETIME
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW FOR NOW FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE ANTICIPATED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH
TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 00Z. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE OCCURRENCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN AT ANY TIME BUT IN TAF`S
ASSIGNED ALL TERMINALS VCTS AT 20Z AND CONTINUING AT 00Z. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.
WITH THAT IN MIND AND CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY...MOST OF THE
TAF`S END AT 00Z WITH VCTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE GREATEST THREAT ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. SO FAR THE TIMING OF ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE LATE EVENING
AND OVER NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL QUICKLY TREND DOWN THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 81 68 82 / 70 40 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 81 69 82 / 70 40 10 10
MIAMI 75 82 69 83 / 70 40 10 10
NAPLES 70 79 61 84 / 80 10 0 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
445 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE
COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
IN THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE
CHANGE SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE RAIN AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY
RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH FURTHER COOLING AND
THE NAM INDICATES POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS WARMER AND KEEPS SURFACE WET-BULB
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. WE BELIEVE THE WARMER GUIDANCE WILL
MORE LIKELY VERIFY WITH CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALSO...MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME MORE SHALLOW LATE TONIGHT
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE. WE FORECASTED JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH PART OF LANCASTER COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BECAUSE OF MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT AMOUNTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGING SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN A STRONG INVERSION WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS KEEP HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. THE CLOUDINESS MAY CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MIXING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LITTLE
CONVERGENCE THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD BE VERY LOW. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE
FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND MAY REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR AREA FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A POP
AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY...AND 20 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CIGS CONTINUE...WITH VARIABLE VSBYS. RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER THE FA 21Z ...WITH
HEAVIER RAIN MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL AREAS.
MODELS INDICATE THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL
LEAD TO IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. AS SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OUR EAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT AS
WELL...THOUGH DRIZZLE COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDINESS
WILL LINGER TUESDAY AND BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VSBYS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GRADUAL RISES IN CIGS POSSIBLE
AS WELL. CIG IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE TUE...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
231 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL
FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE RAIN AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY
RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH FURTHER COOLING AND
THE NAM INDICATES POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS WARMER AND KEEPS SURFACE WET-BULB
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. WE BELIEVE THE WARMER GUIDANCE WILL
MORE LIKELY VERIFY WITH CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALSO...MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME MORE SHALLOW LATE TONIGHT
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE. WE FORECASTED JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH PART OF LANCASTER COUNTY LATE TONIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BECAUSE OF MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT AMOUNTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGING SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN A STRONG INVERSION WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS KEEP HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. THE CLOUDINESS MAY CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MIXING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LITTLE
CONVERGENCE THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD BE VERY LOW. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE
FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND MAY REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR AREA FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A POP
AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY...AND 20 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CIGS CONTINUE...WITH VARIABLE VSBYS. RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE JUST PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER THE FA AT
17Z...HOWEVER LARGER AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR WEST OVER
GA WILL BE MOVING EAST AND AFFECTING AGS/DNL BY 18Z...AND OTHER
TERMINALS BY 19Z TO 20Z. MODELS INDICATE THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD
TO IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. AS SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OUR EAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT AS
WELL...THOUGH DRIZZLE COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDINESS
WILL LINGER TUESDAY AND BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VSBYS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GRADUAL RISES IN CIGS POSSIBLE
AS WELL. CIG IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE TUE...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
123 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES WILL MAINTAIN COLD AIR IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL
FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE RAIN AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY
RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH FURTHER COOLING AND
THE NAM INDICATES POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS WARMER AND KEEPS SURFACE WET-BULB
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. WE BELIEVE THE WARMER GUIDANCE WILL
MORE LIKELY VERIFY WITH CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALSO...MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME MORE SHALLOW LATE TONIGHT
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD SO PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGING SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN A STRONG INVERSION WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL TIME-HEIGHT DISPLAYS KEEP HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. EXPECT TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LIKELY TOO WARM. THE CLOUDINESS MAY CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MIXING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LITTLE
CONVERGENCE THE SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD BE VERY LOW. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE
FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND MAY REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
OUR AREA FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN. AN AVERAGE OF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A POP
AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY...AND 20 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS CONTINUE...WITH VARIABLE VSBYS. RADAR MOSIAC AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE JUST PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER THE FA AT
17Z...HOWEVER LARGER AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR WEST OVER
GA WILL BE MOVING EAST AND AFFECTING AGS/DNL BY 18Z...AND OTHER
TERMINALS BY 19Z TO 20Z. MODELS INDICATE THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD
TO IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. AS SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OUR EAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT AS
WELL...THOUGH DRIZZLE COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDINESS
WILL LINGER TUESDAY AND BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
VSBYS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GRADUAL RISES IN CIGS POSSIBLE
AS WELL. CIG IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z TUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LINGERING LOW CLOUDINESS WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE TUE...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND AN
UPR RDG IN THE ROCKIES. SFC HI PRES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON
THE 00Z APX/GRB RAOBS /PWAT ARND 0.05 INCH/ ARE BRINGING A TRANQUIL
EARLY MRNG TO THE CWA...BUT HI CLDS ARE ON THE INCRS IN ADVANCE OF A
SHRTWV NEAR LK WINNIPEG WHICH IS DIVING SEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS.
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SLY FLOW BTWN ACCOMPANYING SFC
LO/SE ONTARIO HI PRES AND SOME UPR DVGC IN EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED
120KT H3 JET MAX CAUSING AN AREA OF SN OVER NRN MN. VSBYS IN THIS
AREA OF SN HAVE BEEN AS LO AS 1/2-3/4SM DESPITE FEED OF VERY DRY
LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB...WHERE THE H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION
AT 00Z WAS AN IMPRESSIVE 47C. ANOTHER MORE IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV APRCHG
THE PAC NW COAST IS CRASHING INTO THE ROCKIES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU TNGT WL REVOLVE ARND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG SHRTWV AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FALLING MSLP IN
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE W COAST.
TDAY...AREA OF SN NOW IN NRN MN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY 12Z
UNDER AREA OF IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE 280-
290K SFCS /H8-6/ AND AREA OF UPR DVGC. BUT VIGOROUS DRY SLOTTING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET SURGE AT THE SAME TIME THE JET CORE TENDS TO
SHEAR OUT/UPR DVGC WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS MORE CONFLUENT UPR FLOW ON
THE WRN FLANK OF CUTOFF LO IN THE CNDN MARITIMES SHOULD CAUSE THE
PCPN INTENSITY TO DIMINISH STEADILY AS THE AREA MOVES INTO THE DRIER
AIR TO THE E. ONE OTHER MECHANISM THAT WL TEND TO WEAKEN THE SN
MOVING THRU THE CWA IS H85-7 FRONTAL ZN THAT IS FCST TO SHARPEN IN
NCENTRAL WI THIS AFTN AND FOCUS THE SHARPER UVV IN THAT AREA ON THE
SRN FLANK OF MID LVL DRY SLOTTING THAT WL IMPACT UPR MI. AS THE
SHARPER H7 FGEN SHIFTS TO THE E ACRS THE SCENTRL CWA LATER THIS
AFTN...SOME HIER POPS MAY IMPACT THAT AREA LATER IN THE DAY. SN
TOTALS...HIEST OVER THE W AND SCENTRAL...SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN
ABOUT AN INCH TDAY GIVEN THE NEGATIVES MENTIONED ABV AS WELL AS
IMPACTS OF DRY AIR.
TNGT...AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW DIGS THRU THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE PLAINS...STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW OVER THE UPR
LKS TO THE NE OF DVLPG SFC LO IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WL TEND TO LIFT
THE SHARPER H85-7 FGEN N INTO UPR MI. ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AT H85
WL TEND TO LIMIT SN CHCS OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...EXPECT INCRSG
POPS OVER THE W ESPECIALLY LATE...WHEN SOME UPR DVGC IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THAT AREA IN THE RRQ OF SHARPENING H3 JET MAX OVER LK SUP.
WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY APRCHG 3 G/KG...THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR
2 OF OF SN ACCUM OVER THE W IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME WHERE AND WHEN THE
FORCING LOOKS MORE FVRBL DESPITE UNFVRBL HIER...THIN DGZ.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
...COMPLEX AND POSSIBLY MULTI FACETED WINTER STORM TO AFFECT UPR
MICHIGAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SFC LOW IN THE VCNTY OF EASTERN NEB INTO KS. H85 LOW IN SIMILAR POSN
WITH SOUTH WINDS DRAWING WARM AIR TOWARD UPR LAKES. AREA OF H8-H6
FGEN OVER UPR MICHIGAN WILL FOCUS SWATH OF SNOW 12Z-18Z ON TUESDAY.
DRYING NOSING IN FROM SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SHARP EDGE TO THE SNOW.
NAM/GFS AND GEM-NH HAVE TRENDED WITH FARTHER SOUTH H85 BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND THUS MORE QPF DURING THE MORNING HOURS THAN THEY PREVIOUSLY
SHOWED. DECENT MOISTURE IS ADVECTING INTO THE FGEN BAND WITH H7
MIXING RATIOS AROUND 3G/KG PER ECMWF. BY TUESDAY AFTN...MOST MODELS
SHOW FGEN SNOW BAND LIFTING NORTH AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE AS MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXITS NORTH...COULD SEE DZ FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL WITH
EAST WINDS. THIS CLOSES PHASE ONE OF THE SYSTEM. ONLY OTHER
ADJUSTMENT OF NOTE ON TUESDAY WAS TO LOWER TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR
20S TO LOWER 30S FOR CWA.
ON TO THE SECOND AND EVEN MORE COMPLEX PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY EVENING. SFC LOW WELL AGREED UPON AT
THIS TIME WITH CENTER VCNTY OF IOWA. THIS SYSTEM THEN BECOMES VERY
FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVY PRECIPIATION
ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. UPPER SUPPORT CERTAINLY THERE FM DIRECT IMPACT OF PVA/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS MAIN PV ANAMOLY LIFTS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS UPR MICHIGAN IS WITHIN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF JET STRONG JET NOSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL THE
WHILE...MOISTURE INFLUX INTO SYSTEM IS NOTABLE WITH H85-H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED INTO THE REGION BOOSTING H7 MIXING RATIOS TO AROUND
3G/KG. 24HR QPF ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY HAVE BUMPED UP TO OVER 0.6
INCH AND EVEN PUSHED OVER 0.8 IF GOING WITH NAM. GIVEN THE PLETHORA
OF SUPPORT AND ENHANCEMENT TO THIS SYSTEM...THESE FORECASTS DO NOT
SEEM THAT OVERDONE. SFC LOW TRACKS TO CNTRL/NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN BY
12Z ON WEDNESDAY. WARM LAYER 900-850MB LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AT LEAST
IMPACT SOUTHEAST THIRD OF CWA LATE TUESDAY EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THINGS
TURN QUICKLY BACK TO SNOW EVEN IN THE EASTERN CWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION OCCURS THEN THE WARMING TAKES PLACE...LEAVING LESS ROOM
FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. NAM/GFS SHOW WARM LAYER TEMPS UP TO
2-3C...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND LESS SLEET.
NAM FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH WARM LAYER AND WOULD BRING FZRA TO
IMT AND SAW AND EVEN CMX FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM
ALSO MUCH FARTHER WEST WITH H85 CIRCULATION AND BASED ON DPROG/DT
SEEMS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THUS WILL NOT BE
AS AGGRESSIVE/NORTHWEST WITH WARM LAYER AS NAM SHOWS ATTM. AT THE
SAME TIME...ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE WITH MAINLY A SNOWSTORM OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WARM LAYER IS SHUNTED TO THE EAST BEFORE MAKING IT
INTO SE CWA. GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/FZRA/PL
ONLY OVER FAR SE CWA. SYSTEM IS NOW ONSHORE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SO WE SHOULD START TO SEE ADJUSTMENTS TO TRACK AND EXTENT OF WARM
LAYER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HEADLINES...EVENT IS TRICKY...MAINLY DUE TO THE TWO MAIN TIME FRAMES
THAT THERE COULD BE HEAVIER SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX. SINCE THE TREND
IS FOR MORE SNOW ON TUESDAY OVER THE FAR WEST AND GRADIENT TO THE
SNOW COULD BE VERY SHARP /PERHAPS KEEPING MOST OF THIS INITIAL SNOW
OUT OF AREAS FARTHER INTO THE CNTRL CWA AS NAM AND OTHER HIGH RES
MODELS POINT TO/ THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WESTERN TIER
OF UPR MICHIGAN IN A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING 10Z TONIGHT AND
RUNNING THIS ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID NOT GO WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL WATCHES FARTHER TO THE EAST THOUGH SINCE SNOW OVER
THE CNTRL CWA AND WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/FZRA/PL FARTHER EAST DOES NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL LATER TUESDAY EVENING AND ON INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
EVERYTHING CONTINUES AS FORECAST WHICH IS A BIG IF AS MODEL SOLNS
MAY VERY WELL JOG AROUND FURTHER WILL EVENTUALLY NEED SOME HEADLINES
FOR REST OF CWA AS WELL. GOING TO ISSUE AN SPS SO THERE IS SOME
HEADS UP THAT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT
AND HIGH IMPACT WEATHER. IF TIMING HOLDS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND SCHOOL ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF BEING IMPACTED ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM WINDS DOWN...EXPECT SOME LGT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW LINGERING ALONG LK SUPERIOR FIRST THING ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE SCOURS OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
FRIDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH NOW...THOUGH MODELS HAVE BOUNCED
AROUND ON WHETHER TO BRING NORTHERN FRINGE INTO SOUTHERN CWA. COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER COLD SHOT OF
AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SEEMED GOOD FOR
SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
EXPECT INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW AND LOWERING CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UNSURE ON EXACT TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF LOWEST CONDITIONS AS THE BAND WILL BE NARROW AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014
S WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE UP TO 25-30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN SLOWLY
DEPARTING HI PRES AND DEVELOPING LO PRES TO THE W IN THE PLAINS. AS
THIS LOW MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE INTO WED...LIKELY
PASSING JUST TO THE S OF UPPER MI...THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE E AND
THEN N BY WED...WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO 30 KTS TO GALES TO 35
KTS ON WED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY THRU THU AS A
TRAILING HI PRES RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER LAKES. A STRONGER N WIND
UP TO 25-30 KTS MAY DEVELOP ON FRI AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE S THRU THE LOWER LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ001>003-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
313 PM MDT MON MAR 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ONE FRONT ALREADY
PULLED THROUGH THE AREA AND A SECOND ONE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. RADAR SHOWS
SHOWER ACTIVITIES WITH ACTIVITY STRONGEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. FORECAST GETS QUIET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SO ALL
WEATHER CONCERNS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
AREAS FOR GREATEST SNOWFALL TONIGHT WILL BE WHERE UPSLOPE HAS A
CHANCE TO WORK WITH THE INSTABILITY. LIGHTNING OBSERVED BY HAVRE
SO COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS NORTH OF THE AREA AND LAPSE RATE PROGS
SHOW WESTERN ZONES DESTABILIZE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STEEP IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA SO
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE FAVORED IN A WRAP AROUND FLOW ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA LOW PRESSURE. SNOW ADVISORIES FOR
LIVINGSTON AND PARADISE VALLEY LOOK GOOD ALONG WITH THE FOOTHILLS
AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. SOUTHEAST MONTANA MAY STRUGGLE AS
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL MILD AND BEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION DIVES
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK
UP OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND EXPECT WIND TO INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY SEE
LOCAL PROBLEMS IS JUDITH GAP THOUGH BURST OF SNOW WILL BE SHORTER.
FOR AREAS NOT COVERED BY ADVISORIES JUST THINK WEATHER IS
TRAVELING SO FAST THAT 90 MINUTES OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
THE GREATEST IMPACT AND ROAD SURFACES MAY BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR
MOST OF THE THAT TIME.
SNOWFALL CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHES DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA. RUC MODEL
CONTINUES TO TREND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION
BUT SUSPECT BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND SHERIDAN COUNTY STAND THE BEST
CHANCE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING.
UNSTABLE TUESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON
THE COOL SIDE. LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP SO ANTICIPATE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA. AFTER A
COOLER NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY SEES WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH LEESIDE TROUGHING. THIS WILL BRING A MILD
WARMUP AND KEEP THINGS DRY. PATTERN DOES NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH FOR
WINDS TO BECOME A PROBLEM AT LIVINGSTON AS A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WEAKEN PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT IF SHORTWAVE
TIMING CHANGES LIVINGSTON WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...FAVORING A A COOLER AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH THE REGION
WITH STRONG...GUSTY NW WINDS. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...BUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP PRECIP TO
A MINIMUM IN THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
ANOTHER POLAR AIRMASS SLIDES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AT THE SAME TIME A TROWAL-
TYPE FEATURE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
AND SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD AIR...850 MB TEMPS WILL
DROP WELL BELOW 0C...TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT
SNOW. UPSLOPE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY ALSO HELP ENHANCE
SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
UNSTABLE AND SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE
COLDER AIR. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
SOME WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...THOUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT. AS 850 MB TEMPS
RISE ABOVE 0C SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER...IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. BEYOND SUNDAY...MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
STC
&&
.AVIATION...
N TO NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...WITH AREAS OF LIFR
LIKELY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION INTO
TUESDAY. STC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/044 028/051 031/047 026/036 020/038 022/046 027/048
63/W 11/B 24/W 33/J 22/J 11/B 22/W
LVM 023/038 025/046 027/042 020/034 014/038 018/046 025/045
93/W 11/N 34/W 33/J 22/J 21/B 22/W
HDN 030/044 027/050 031/048 026/037 018/039 021/046 025/049
84/W 11/B 24/W 44/J 22/J 11/B 23/W
MLS 030/044 028/051 031/049 028/036 019/037 021/044 025/047
94/W 21/B 13/W 44/J 22/J 11/B 22/W
4BQ 030/042 026/049 029/048 026/037 019/038 020/045 025/047
+5/W 21/B 13/W 34/J 22/J 11/B 22/W
BHK 027/039 026/047 027/047 025/034 017/034 018/039 022/043
+4/W 31/B 13/W 45/J 22/J 11/B 22/W
SHR 028/039 021/048 024/046 023/036 015/038 017/047 023/046
+5/W 21/B 13/W 33/J 23/J 11/B 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES 36>38-57-58.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR ZONES 56-63-66.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 64-65.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR ZONE 99.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR
ZONE 98.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
107 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LIGHT ECHOES MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE SURFACE OBS HAVE REPORTED
PRECIPITATION...SO DO NOT THINK ANY IS REACHING THE GROUND YET.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY SPREADING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING IN GGW SO
THINK THIS IS A VIABLE SOLUTION. THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING AND IS PROGGED TO BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES...EXPECTED LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS...AND LOW SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...DO NOT THINK SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...DECIDED TO LET THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT EXPIRE AS
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FARTHER SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WOULD SUGGEST.
AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TREND DRYER FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...MAINLY FROM BURKE AND WARD COUNTIES EAST TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN REGION.
ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SCATTERED MORNING SPRINKLES OVER
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBS/TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ALL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TODAY. AS A RESULT...REMOVED MENTION OF A WINTRY MIX
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FROM TODAY`S FORECAST.
FURTHERMORE...IF THE WEAKER/FARTHER SOUTH TREND CONTINUES WITH THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EFFECT THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A LOT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE 12Z RUNS ARE IN TO MAKE A NEW SNOW FORECAST...BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL BE LESS THAN 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE LATEST RAP / HRRR SUGGESTING THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST LATER THIS
MORNING...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS GENERAL IDEA...HAVE DECREASED POPS
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT RAMP THEM UP AGAIN
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN POPS COULD BE TOO HIGH
IN THE NORTH IF THE DEFORMATION AXIS / PRECIPITATION SETS UP AS
PER THE RAP...AND ALREADY DECIDED TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
REFLECT THAT AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE PRECIP TYPES
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENT PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE SOUTHEAST TO BISMARCK TO LINTON/ELLENDALE. WARM ADVECTION
BEHIND A WARM FRONT WAS KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION WAS MAINLY
RAIN...BUT SUSPECT A FEW SPOTS OF FREEZING RAIN - THOUGH NOTHING
WIDESPREAD.
CONFIDENCE IN MORNING/AFTERNOON TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN IS
LOW...BUT MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
DEVELOP FROM MONTANA EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...DEVELOPING
NORTH OF A LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
MAINLY RAIN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH AND TO THE LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE...COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL BE PULLED INTO NORTH
DAKOTA...AND RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
NORTH...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING SOUTH. EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS
LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FOR THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
THIS TRANSLATES TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED INTO
IOWA/NEBRASKA AND MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS TUESDAY WILL HAVE JUST A CHANCE OF LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE PASSING OF SEVERAL UPPER
WAVES...EACH OF WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES ALREADY TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE...AND THEN CROSSES THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THE POTENTIALLY STRONGEST WAVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IN THE THURSDAY / FRIDAY TIME FRAME...HOWEVER
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING
THE TIMING. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH FOR POPS WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY...LASTING
INTO FRIDAY.
THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
REGARDING POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TYPES...OVERALL FAVORED SNOW...BUT
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYTIME COULD LEAD TO RAIN AT TIMES
MIXING IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEGINNING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW OVER KDIK-KBIS-KJMS BETWEEN 03Z-04Z. IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-94 TERMINAL
AERODROMES...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 03Z-12Z.
TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY TROUBLESHOOTING COMMS ISSUES AT THE KMOT
ASOS. A NOTAM HAS BEEN ISSUED AND AN AMD NOT SKED WAS INCLUDED IN
THE KMOT TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
NOTE...ICE IS AFFECTING MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS AND UNTIL THAT ICE
CLEARS...SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS ARE LIKELY.
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS...IN THE MISSOURI
RIVER BASIN...
THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR WILLISTON AFFECTING WILLIAMS AND MCKENZIE
COUNTIES. MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THE RIVER NEAR WILLISTON BECOMES FREE OF ICE.
IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN...
SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AFFECTING MCHENRY COUNTY. MINOR FLOODING
IS FORECAST BY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...TM
HYDROLOGY...TM/AJS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
IN A NUTSHELL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT
TO TRIM BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY AND TWEAK TIMING OF EXIT OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
BROAD AND RELATIVELY ROBUST LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAS LED TO LARGE AREA OF POORLY
ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN BATTLING STUBBORN LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER EASTCENTRAL
WISCONSIN ALL DAY. BEST SATURATION HAS BEEN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN GENERALLY
IN THE 1 TO 2 MILE CATEGORY GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 WHICH
SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTRED BY AREA WEB CAMS.
LATEST RAP AND TO LESSER EXTENT GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AREA OF
MODEST AND MORE FOCUSED LIFT OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND GRADUALLY
SHIFTS IT EAST INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN DRY LAYER HAS BEEN BEATEN
DOWN BY ONGOING LIGHT SNOW UPSTREAM AND MODEL FORECAST OF
PERSISTENT LIFT INTO EARLY EVENING...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO
AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GREEN BAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
THAN MAYBE AN INCH OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. RUC AND HRRR GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT ON ENDING LIGHT
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING...PROBABALY AROUND 01Z
TO 02Z.
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN CONCERT ON A PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z BEFORE BAND OF MORE ORGANIZED LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
INITIAL SNOW BAND FORCED BY WAA AND FRONTOGENESIS...MAY CLIP THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2
TOWARD DAYBREAK. THEN AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...BAND SHOULD
BEGIN TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS MAINLY DRY
BUT CLOUDY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40...BRISK EASTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL AS
THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT PROVIDES A BIG CHALLENGE WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF HEADLINES...OR IF HEADLINES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
WITH THE INITIAL WAA PCPN LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA OR PERHAPS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
ONSET WILL SEE PCPN REDEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS
THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM IOWA. DRY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SATURATE QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING TO
PRODUCE AN ASSORTMENT OF R/ZR/IP/S OVER LOCATIONS WITH MAINLY SNOW
OVER THE NORTH. WITH A RATHER WARM BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP THE ZR
WORDING MINIMAL. MODEL POSITION AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE AND
H850 LOWS STILL NOT SETTLED WHICH WILL IMPACT PCPN TYPE AS WELL AS
A REGION OF HEAVIER SNOW. IN ADDITION SLOWER START TO THE EVENT
WILL LIKELY SPREAD WARMER AIR NORTHWARD TO HOLD SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
BUT A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/NAM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TRACKING THE H850 LOW OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE H850 LOW AND SURFACE LOW ARE SLOWER ALONG
WITH A HINT OF A H500 NEGATIVE TROUGH FEATURE. WITH HEIGHT 700
TEMPS COLDEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INCLUDING PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL INCLUDE VILAS COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR NOW. THE UKMET AND GEM WERE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND IF THE OTHER MODELS TREND THAT WAY LATER
ON...ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE HEADLINES.
AFTER BLUSTERY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW DIMINISHING...A WEAK RIDGE
SLIDES OVER THURSDAY FOR COLD BUT QUIET CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SLIDES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW. FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
VARIABLE CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD BUT ROBUST WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA HAS GENERATED AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. FOR THE MOST PART THE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN POORLY ORGANIZED. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
EAST...IT HAS ENCOUNTERED RATHER DRY AIR OVER NORTHEAST AND
EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHERE LIGHT SNOW HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO
MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
AT RHI AND PERHAPS AUW.
THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE AND PUSH ENE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR N AND NE
WHERE LINGERING MFVR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE EVENING.
PRIMARY STORM SYSTEM THEN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT IT APPEARS BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOA 8000 FEET FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ005.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1216 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PUSHING A BIT FURTHER TO THE
EAST PER THE 17.11Z RAP WHICH TAKES A +1C TO +3C WARM NOSE AROUND
800MB INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SO FAR...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
SNOW IN SC MN...RATHER SLEET/UP WHERE THIS WARM LAYER IS IN PLACE.
FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR...AS NOTED ON THE 17.12Z MPX RAOB...BETWEEN 850-700MB HAS KEPT
ANY OF THE SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND DESPITE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF RADAR RETURNS PICKING UP ON THE MID LEVEL PRECIP. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LAYER SHOULD START TO SATURATE OUT
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MORE POTENT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
THE WARM NOSE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE DONE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND ALSO
ADD IN SOME SLEET TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST
IOWA THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF I-94
TODAY...THEN FOCUS TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY.
SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING A GOOD STREAM OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION MID-CLOUD PUSHING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
WARM FRONT. RADAR MOSAIC WAS SHOWING SOME ECHOES OUT OF THIS CLOUD
ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT NOTHING FALLING AT GROUND LEVEL DUE TO
DRIER LOWER LEVELS. ALSO...FARTHER UPSTREAM...RADAR MOSAIC WAS
SHOWING AN INCREASING BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ND IN STRONGER WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94 THIS MORNING. MORE
ON THIS LATER. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS HAVE
PRETTY MUCH SHUT DOWN THE TEMPERATURE SLIDE OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES.
FOR TODAY...LOOKING FOR THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN/U.S BORDER...PUSHING A WARM FRONT TO INTO THE REGION
TODAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FAIRLY STRONG 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND WARM FRONT DEPICTED BY
THE RAP/NAM...MOVES INTO AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 THIS MORNING.
THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 THIS MORNING...LASTING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...FAIRLY CONFIDENT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
FALL IN THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHER-END AMOUNTS FOCUSED ACROSS
CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS FORCING CLOSELY FOR
SNOWBURST POTENTIAL WHICH COULD LAY DOWN LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
WHICH MAY WARRANT HEADLINES. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 30 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WI...TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE MONITORING STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT.
FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
ON TUESDAY...THE DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IA WITH
MAIN DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SETTING UP ACROSS NEB INTO NORTHERN
MN. MODELS SHOWING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION
IN ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
MAIN CONCERN IS ON THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND STRONG
WIND.
MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE DEEP SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO UPPER MI DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD KEEP WARMER AIR WRAPPED INTO OUR AREA FOR A SLOWER TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. RIGHT NOW...MORE CONFIDENT ON
HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETTING UP FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MN...BUT WILL OF COURSE HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THE MODEL TREND FOR THE EXACT TRACK. ANY SHIFT WITH THE TRACK
FARTHER SOUTHEAST COULD EASILY SHIFT THE HEAVIER SNOW INTO OUR AREA.
OTHER FACET OF THIS STORM WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH IN THE MORE WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. THIS
MAY WARRANT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES...OR COULD BE WINTER
HEADLINES IF HEAVIER SNOWFALL MATERIALIZES WITH THE WINDS.
LOOKS LIKE A QUIET BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MODELS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH FRONTOGENETICALLY-FORCED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SETTING UP ACROSS
THE AREA. COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...GOING
OVER TO SNOW LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND BACK TO RAIN WITH WARMING ON
FRIDAY INTO THE MID 30S/LOWER 40S.
MODELS THEN SHOWING A COLD SIGNAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. LOOKS
LIKE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
LOOKING TO TOP OFF IN THE 20S AND 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2014
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY MOVED
PAST KRST AND WILL BE PAST KLSE BY 18Z...THUS PLAN TO START BOTH
TAFS WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION. MID LEVEL VFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION AND LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS
BACK TO THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH EITHER A HIGH VFR CEILING OR HIGH
SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS AND CUTS
OFF THE MIXING. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND
ALSO KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY. APPEARS THAT THE FORCING WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT CURRENT TIMING
WOULD PLACE THIS BETWEEN 18Z TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04